Morgan Housel Urges Investors to Prioritize Endurance Over Optimization

摩根·豪泽尔呼吁投资者将持久力置于最优化之上 复利取决于行为上的生存能力而非分析智慧，这使得现金缓冲与消除债务成为防范市场危机期间恐慌性抛售的理性护盾。 摩根·豪泽尔解释称，长期投资的成功是由人类行为和情绪持久力决定的，而非纯粹的智力或复杂的电子表格。他认为，投资者应努力做出能带来个人自主权与内心平静的“合理”决策——例如保持零负债或持有更高额的现金储备——即使这些选择在学术模型中显得并非最优。在探讨运气、风险与不断变化之预期之间的相互作用时，豪泽尔概述了为什么财富是由未消费的部分所定义的，以及像悲观主义者那样储蓄如何让人能像乐观主义者那样投资。讨论还将固定收益重新定义为防止恐慌性抛售的心理减震器，审视了极简FIRE策略在行为上的脆弱性，并强调市场的大幅回撤能够提供关于投资者真实风险承受能力的宝贵实时数据。 投资成功主要由行为纪律——即数十年间对恐惧与贪婪的掌控——所驱动，而非纯粹的分析智力或正式文凭。 (3:00) 巨大的财务成功在很大程度上受到不可复制的运气的影响，这使得对沃伦·巴菲特或比尔·盖茨等超级投资者的细微模仿适得其反。 (5:19) 将个人财务持久力置于理论上的表格最优化之上，能让投资者在市场恐慌中生存下来，并获取指数级的长期复利。 (8:58) 债券在投资组合中的核心功能不是产生名义收益，而是充当心理减震器，以防止在崩盘期间被迫抛售股票。 (33:36)

Author Morgan Housel argues that long-term financial success depends far more on behavioral endurance and managing emotional impulses than on analytical sophistication or mathematical optimization. Behavioral Endurance Over Analytical Intelligence (3:00) Investing is an unusual domain where an untrained novice who regularly dollar-cost averages into basic index funds over decades can outperform elite professionals and business school graduates. Because catastrophic failures frequently stem from emotional instability rather than a lack of information, managing fear, greed, and panic is the primary determinant of long-term returns. Granular formulas from investing legends often fail across changing market regimes, and extreme outliers like Warren Buffett or Bill Gates benefit from unrepeatable luck. Instead of attempting to copy narrow tactics, investors capture the vast majority of compounding returns by surviving long enough to let exponential growth materialize in the final years of an investment horizon. Reasonable Decisions at the Dinner Table (11:00) Pure mathematical rationality often clashes with lived human experience because financial choices are negotiated at dinner tables rather than on spreadsheets. Academic models like lifecycle investing advocate using leverage early to smooth exposures across time, but they fail to account for the psychological devastation of catastrophic wipeouts. Housel notes that paying off a low-interest mortgage was mathematically suboptimal on paper, yet highly reasonable because it removed fixed housing obligations and delivered daily mental security. Similarly, behavioral tendencies like home bias can be justified if familiar holdings give an investor the emotional conviction needed to avoid capitulating during steep downturns. Expectations, Autonomy, and Invisible Wealth (14:37) Housel identifies controlling desires and stopping the goalpost from moving as the most critical financial discipline. Although U.S. median household income has roughly doubled in real terms since the 1950s and median home sizes grew from 950 to 2,400 square feet, widespread satisfaction remains elusive because material expectations outpaced economic progress. True wealth consists of unspent, invisible assets, whereas visible outward consumption—such as leased supercars and oversized houses—frequently signals heavy debt burdens rather than genuine net worth. For Housel, the supreme intrinsic value of money is autonomy: gaining the freedom to control one's time and walk away from work on one's own terms. Pessimistic Defense and Bonds as Airbags (22:32) Durable investing requires pairing short-term pessimism with long-term optimism: preparing defensively for perpetual economic disruptions while remaining broadly confident in multi-decade human problem-solving. While long-term U.S. Treasuries produced equity-like returns during a 40-year tailwind of declining rates between 1980 and 2010, Housel views that period as a historical anomaly. In a near-zero rate regime, fixed income functions primarily as a psychological airbag. Even with low nominal yields, a bond allocation earns an astronomically high hidden return if it prevents an investor from liquidating equities in panics such as the 2008 crash or the March 2020 pandemic shock. The Advisor's Shift to Financial Psychology (27:35) Because software and robo-advisors have largely automated portfolio construction and pushed asset management fees toward zero, the technical mechanics of personal finance are commoditized. The remaining challenge lies in navigating idiosyncratic life complexities such as marital friction, career pivots, and spending habits. Housel compares modern advisors to medical clinicians: even knowledgeable practitioners need emotionally detached third parties to identify personal blind spots. Financial planners therefore deliver the greatest value not as gatekeepers of mathematical formulas, but as behavioral sounding boards helping clients identify their true capacity for risk. Housel emphasizes that personal finance ultimately serves human well-being rather than theoretical efficiency, meaning acute panic during market crises should be treated as informative data about an individual's true risk tolerance. He ultimately defines personal success through devotion to family and supporting dependents rather than status or portfolio benchmarks.

作家兼投资人Morgan Housel指出，长期的财务成功并非取决于智商或精密的数学模型，而在于个人的行为管理与心理持久力。决策应当优先契合人性的“合理性”以保障生存与复利，而非单纯追求电子表格上的理论“理性”。 行为优于智商与不可复制的超级成功 (3:00) 在投资领域，没有任何受训背景的普通人若能坚持40年定投基础指数基金，其收益完全可能跻身全体投资者的前10%，而医学等专业领域绝不可能发生未受训者匹敌顶尖外科医生的现象。Housel强调，投资表现核心在于控制贪婪、恐惧与恐慌情绪，而非名校光环或信息多寡；高智商天才若因情绪失控，同样会导致灾难性的失败。 试图机械复制巴菲特等超级投资者的策略往往行不通，因为宏观环境已发生剧烈变迁，更关键的是顶层成功包含着无法被模仿的巨大运气。Housel以比尔·盖茨的高中好友Kent Evans为例，盖茨曾认为Evans比自己更具商业头脑且计划共同创业，但Evans在高中阶段不幸遭遇登山事故丧生。运气与风险是一体两面，任何将超级成功完全归因于能力的复盘，都低估了不可控外部变量的决定性作用。 餐桌决策、安全边际与持久力最大化 (8:58) 指数复利的数学规律决定了投资周期中最庞大的绝对收益几乎全部积累在末期，因此投资者的首要任务是确保持续“留在牌桌上”，而非用激进策略追求单期暴击。Housel在个人财务中持有极高比例的现金且无任何负债，甚至提前还清了低息房贷。他承认从纯数学角度看还贷是“最糟糕的决定”，但这种安排消除了固定月度刚性支出，极大提升了生活安全感。 人们是在餐桌上面对家庭现实做财务决策，而不是在没有情感波动的电子表格上。学术研究曾指出，2倍杠杆虽然在回测中因复利效果胜出，却忽视了投资者在遭遇30年一遇的清盘爆仓后，现实中会彻底对系统丧失信心并离场。相比追求纯粹理性的最优解，选择在心理上具有保护性、能增强抗恐慌能力的“合理”配置（如带有本土偏好的投资组合），才是维持长期持有的真正支柱。 掌控欲望的停泊点与财富的无形本质 (14:37) 相比于不断提高收益率，管理财务最核心的技能是让欲望的“球门标杆”停止移动。现代美国家庭的实际收入中位数已达1950年代的两倍，新房面积从当年的950平方英尺扩张到2400平方英尺，但人们感知到的幸福感并未提升，反而对昔日充满怀旧。这是因为物质期望的膨胀速度超越了财富增长，使人长期陷入享乐跑步机中。 真正的财富是那些没有被花掉的资产、储蓄与投资组合，因此它在公共视野中具有完全的“隐形性”。社会上许多高调展示豪宅与超跑的人往往深陷沉重负债，若大众盲目模仿这些可见的消费表象，实则是在效仿财务危机。金钱最高层级的内在价值是自主性与独立性——即在想工作时工作、与喜欢的人共事并不受他人支配的自由；对消费品的适应会冲淡快乐，但对自由的掌控感永不褪色。 悲观主义储蓄与重构债券的心理缓冲价值 (22:32) 面对不可预测的宏观波动，可持续的财务框架是“像悲观主义者一样储蓄，像乐观主义者一样投资”。经济史是由衰退、熊市与意外构成的混乱链条，必须准备充裕的现金储备以求短期生存；而从数十年跨度看，人类具备持续解决问题与推动生产力进步的韧性，复利的果实最终属于乐观坚守者。致富需要承担风险与乐观进取，守富却需要健康的偏执与防范毁灭性风险的敬畏。 在经历约40年的利率下行牛市后，传统债券在超低利率环境下的职能必须被重新定义。Housel指出，不能再指望固收资产创造高收益，其在现代资产配置中的核心作用是充当“心理安全气囊”。在诸如2008年或2020年3月的市场崩溃期，哪怕只产生极低名义收益的债券，若能阻止投资者恐慌性抛售其股票仓位，所挽救的隐性收益也是极其巨大的。 应对未知的黑天鹅与财务顾问的心理学角色 (35:19) 正如心理学家Daniel Kahneman所言，面对历史冲击，正确的启示不是在预测模型中补丁式地添加变量，而是承认世界在本质上是充满意外的。真正造成结构性破坏的危机（如二战珍珠港事件、911事件或新冠疫情）无一例外在发生前夜完全未被计入价格。回顾2020年3月与2008年次贷危机，若非规模空前的政策兜底，整个金融体系极可能滑向深度大萧条；投资者在极端崩盘时涌现的本能恐慌并非不可理喻，而是一个认清个人实际风险承受能力的重要数据点。 当前金融科技虽然将资产配置与交易成本压缩至接近于零，但依然无法替代面对面的全面财务规划，因为真实生活充斥着个性差异、职业转变、婚姻起伏等不可量化的杂乱现实。传统的金融顾问曾扮演信息垄断者的角色，而在自动化工具普及的今天，优秀顾问的核心价值已转向“财务心理学家”——提供客观的情感隔离视角，协助客户克服内在认知盲区，在冰冷数学与温热人性之间构建平衡。 Housel的论点表明，理财的终极目的并非最大化报表数字，而是服务于现实生活中的心理宁静与人际支持。然而，对于极度依赖严格数学回测的理论学派与力求在微薄资产上提前退休的激进群体而言，如何平衡严密的算力模型与极其脆弱的人性心理承载力，仍是一个未被完全化解的现实矛盾。

[22:32] Morgan Housel: The big philosophy that I have for my own money, and I think it will work for a lot of other people too, is save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist. [14:37] Morgan Housel: I think the most important financial skill for anyone is just getting the goal post to stop moving. [25:30] Morgan Housel: I think for financial decisions, aiming to be reasonable instead of rational is probably the better goal for people. [8:58] Morgan Housel: The game that I want to play is acknowledging how ridiculously powerful compounding is and therefore increasing the odds that I will be able to stick around long enough for compounding to work. [30:20] Morgan Housel: the fewer decisions that I have to make, the more endurance I'm going to have, so that's why I want the simplest strategy.

[0:00] [Music] [0:05] this is the rational reminder podcast a [0:07] weekly reality check on sensible [0:08] investing and financial decision making [0:10] for canadians we are hosted by me [0:11] benjamin felix and cameron passmore [0:14] another great interview morgan housel [0:16] joined us uh this week [0:18] people knew he was coming up we've [0:19] talked about his book a number of times [0:21] and wow [0:23] wow what a great conversation yeah [0:26] i i i mentioned this in the episode but [0:28] i [0:30] the conversation with him was [0:33] in some ways similar to the conversation [0:35] that we had with josh and brian just in [0:37] terms of [0:37] what is rational not necessarily being [0:39] what is optimal [0:41] i thought morgan did a really good job [0:42] of bridging and maybe [0:44] because we asked a question about it but [0:46] bridging that idea of making reasonable [0:48] decisions but [0:49] not not only reasonable decisions [0:52] there's there's a place for [0:53] understanding what is rational [0:55] and then making a good decision with [0:56] that as a as a footing but not [0:59] not feeling tied to doing things just [1:01] because they're on paper [1:03] rational he says uh morgan explains it [1:05] as people don't make decisions on [1:07] financial decisions on a spreadsheet [1:08] they make them at the dinner table and i [1:09] think that's a pretty good way to say it [1:11] absolutely so morgan is currently the [1:13] partner at the collaborative fund [1:15] and as we mentioned he's the author of [1:17] the recently released book the [1:18] psychology of money which is [1:20] as i've said many times a phenomenal [1:22] phenomenal read [1:23] he also puts out a blog post i believe [1:26] every couple weeks it comes out and that [1:28] it's always [1:29] must read exceptionally well written [1:32] insightful pieces that he does [1:34] and he also has a really interesting [1:35] story so if you go through [1:37] his writings he tells some incredible [1:40] stories [1:41] about his background and how we ended up [1:42] where he is today [1:45] i'll be honest with morgan's book i read [1:47] it and [1:48] i i i it none of it jumped out at me as [1:51] being like wow that's that's sort of [1:53] revolutionary but then i sat on it for a [1:55] few days [1:56] and the more i thought about it i [1:58] started realizing how powerful some of [2:00] the stories and ideas [2:02] that he put in the book were um for [2:05] for clients like for not maybe maybe not [2:08] as much for [2:09] for me but i started realizing geez i [2:11] think i need to give this book to this [2:13] person to help them think about this [2:14] thing and this person helped them think [2:15] about this thing [2:17] so as much as it's uh it's not the kind [2:19] of technical thing that [2:20] that maybe i get excited about but it is [2:23] it is a powerful piece of [2:25] writing i agree anything else to add [2:30] no i think that's good let's let's go to [2:32] the conversation with morgan [2:40] morgan it's so great to have you join us [2:42] on the rash reminder podcast [2:44] thanks so much for having me cameron and [2:46] off the top congratulations on your [2:48] phenomenal book the psychology [2:50] of money we've mentioned it many times [2:52] on prior [2:53] podcasts so congratulations thank you [2:56] very much i appreciate that [2:57] so a line you wrote in that book really [2:59] struck with me when you're talking about [3:01] the field of finance and you said [3:03] in no other field can someone with zero [3:05] experience do better than someone who [3:07] has spent a career studying [3:08] finance so you talk about the [3:10] implications of this statement and what [3:12] that means for the average investor [3:15] we know the the notion that you can have [3:16] someone who has never worked in finance [3:18] does not have any financial training or [3:20] background [3:21] but still let's just say hypothetically [3:23] they they dollar cost average into index [3:25] funds and they leave it alone for 40 [3:27] years [3:28] that person will probably do very well [3:29] as an investor they might literally be [3:32] in the top decile of all investors over [3:34] the course of their life without any [3:36] training any skill [3:37] any background they didn't work at [3:38] goldman sachs they didn't go to harvard [3:40] business school [3:40] and they can still do very well there [3:42] aren't many other fields [3:44] where it's like that like can you [3:45] imagine a world where [3:47] someone who did not go to medical school [3:48] and had no medical training ended up in [3:50] the top decile of [3:51] heart surgeons like it would never it [3:53] would never happen it would be [3:55] impossible consider that [3:56] but it does happen in investing and [3:58] there's two explanations for that one [3:59] you could say that there's a lot of luck [4:01] involved in investing if people who [4:02] don't know what they're doing per se [4:04] do well maybe there's an element of luck [4:06] and i think that that could be [4:08] one answer and i i i talk a little a [4:11] little bit about that in the book [4:12] but to me the bigger answer and [4:14] explanation and takeaway from this [4:16] is that doing well at investing is not [4:18] about what you know it's not about how [4:19] smart you are it's not about [4:20] where you went to school or how [4:21] sophisticated you are it's not about the [4:23] amount of information that you have [4:25] doing well at investing is by and large [4:27] how you behave [4:28] it's whether you can keep your head on [4:29] straight when the world feels like it's [4:31] falling apart [4:32] it's things like your relationship with [4:33] greed and fear and who you trust [4:35] who you seek information from and all [4:37] those things have [4:38] virtually nothing to do with where you [4:40] went to school or how and you know what [4:42] you got on your sets it doesn't have to [4:44] do anything with that it's much more [4:45] about [4:46] your behavior your psychology which can [4:48] vary from person to person and is really [4:50] not correlated to your intelligence [4:52] you can have someone and we write about [4:53] the about this in the book people who [4:56] did go to harvard business school and [4:57] are textbook geniuses [4:59] who fail miserably at money because they [5:02] don't have the behavioral side so i [5:03] think the behavioral side is important [5:05] because [5:05] it has the ability to neutralize any of [5:08] the analytical intelligence [5:10] that you bring to the table in investing [5:12] and i think that's why this like the [5:13] psychology of investing [5:14] psychology of money is so fundamentally [5:17] important in this endeavor [5:19] i think an extension of that of [5:21] cameron's question is [5:23] people often look at great investors [5:26] sort of people that have been [5:27] have had good outcomes throughout [5:28] history like buffett and dalio come to [5:30] mind [5:31] uh or or maybe people like ben graham [5:33] and and individual investors want to try [5:35] and emulate [5:36] people like that the people that have [5:37] had really good [5:39] outcomes can you talk about some of the [5:41] problems that that that [5:43] raises i mean so much of the issue with [5:46] trying to copy other great investors [5:48] it's not that you shouldn't do it it's [5:49] not that it's a problem i've done it [5:51] myself i continue to do it myself [5:52] i tend to think that the lessons that we [5:54] learn from them are way too specific [5:57] and the more specific the lesson that [5:58] you learn from those people are the [6:00] less likely that you will be able to [6:02] copy it and emulate it yourself [6:03] and rather than looking for specific [6:05] lessons i think we should be looking for [6:07] the [6:07] big broad 30 000 foot takeaways that we [6:10] can learn from these people [6:11] if you look at warren buffett or [6:13] benjamin graham and your takeaway is [6:15] you should buy stocks that trade for [6:17] less than 1.2 x [6:19] of their networking capital like if [6:21] that's your takeaway [6:22] that's probably not going to be that [6:24] helpful for you because we live in a [6:26] different era maybe that worked in 1960 [6:28] it might not work today [6:29] so if it's really specific it might not [6:31] help but if your takeaway from warren [6:33] buffett is [6:34] hey he has been compounding for 80 years [6:37] and that has been you know the main [6:39] driver of his of [6:41] of his net worth over time just the fact [6:43] that he's been a consistent [6:44] investor for 80 years like that's a good [6:47] takeaway a really big broad takeaway [6:49] is something that i think that we can [6:50] emulate you know there's another chapter [6:52] in the book that i write about bill [6:53] gates [6:54] where um there's so much that we can and [6:56] should learn from bill gates about [6:59] the the power of of of hard work and [7:02] you know putting and taking risks when [7:03] there's a lot to learn from bill gates [7:05] but if your takeaway from bill gates is [7:07] you know really specific about [7:09] how to build a software company and [7:10] whatnot that might be much less [7:12] uh you know that's that's something that [7:14] you won't be able to copy as much as [7:16] as people think there's also this [7:18] element of luck that takes place in the [7:20] big [7:20] successes people who are extremely [7:22] successful that [7:24] who are the people who we tend to look [7:25] up to who we want to emulate [7:27] the more successful that someone is the [7:29] more likely it is that a degree of luck [7:31] fueled their success not 100 [7:33] i'm not saying bill gates and warren [7:34] buffett were just lucky [7:36] but is there an element of luck involved [7:38] in it yes of course there's a very big [7:40] element [7:41] of luck involved and therefore the [7:42] ability for me or you or anyone else to [7:44] copy their success [7:46] is substantially hindered because you [7:47] cannot emulate luck [7:49] so that's why again it's just important [7:51] to take to pull from those [7:53] stories the biggest broadest lessons [7:55] about behavior rather than the technical [7:57] specific takeaways [7:58] from what they've done yeah it's a great [8:01] way to think about i loved your [8:02] your story in the book about bill gates [8:05] classmate [8:06] and how you related that back to to luck [8:08] they could have had similar outcomes but [8:10] because of one [8:10] one small difference early on they had [8:12] massively different [8:14] outcomes but despite maybe similar [8:15] potential paths [8:17] right so i mean just to just to go on [8:19] that a little bit uh one of [8:20] bill gates best friend in high school [8:22] was a guy named ken evans [8:24] and by bill's recollection kent was [8:26] smarter than bill gates harder working [8:28] than bill gates had a better business [8:30] mind than bill gates [8:31] and kent and bill's plan was that they [8:32] would go to college together [8:34] and go and start a company together so [8:36] you could easily imagine a world where [8:38] kent [8:38] evans was the founder of microsoft maybe [8:41] the bigger [8:42] the bigger person in microsoft than bill [8:44] gates was [8:45] but he tragically died in a [8:47] mountaineering accident when he was 18 [8:48] or 19 years old and that [8:50] that ended it right there so you have [8:51] this one kind of just [8:53] crazy stroke of bad luck uh of risk [8:56] that since sent things in the other [8:58] direction so let me piggyback on that [9:00] comment about bad luck so can you talk [9:02] about the difference between being [9:04] conservative [9:05] and having a margin of safety which you [9:06] talked about in the book [9:08] so i you know if you look at my personal [9:10] finances people might think that i'm [9:12] conservative because i have [9:14] a reasonably high percentage of my net [9:16] worth in cash i don't have any debt [9:18] people might look at that and say i just [9:20] don't want to take a lot of risk i'm i'm [9:22] kind of scared i i don't want to take [9:24] risk and i i don't think that's the [9:25] right way to look at it i don't think [9:26] i'm conservative [9:28] what i what i want to have is endurance [9:30] i want to be [9:31] so unbreakable financially in the short [9:33] run [9:34] to ensure to increase the odds that i [9:36] will be able to stick around [9:37] as an investor for the stocks that i do [9:39] own to compound for the longest period [9:40] of time [9:41] if you understand the math of [9:42] compounding you know that the big gains [9:45] come at the end of the period and that [9:48] you know and [9:48] if you're investing for 30 years the [9:50] biggest gains in dollar terms are going [9:52] to come [9:52] in the last couple years that's how the [9:53] math of compounding works it just gets [9:55] exponentially higher [9:56] as time goes on so to me the number one [9:58] thing that i want to do and i think this [10:00] is true for a lot of investors [10:01] is just maximize my endurance maximize [10:04] my durability as an [10:05] investor and i do that by having a [10:08] reasonably high percentage of cash [10:09] and having no debt it's not that i don't [10:11] want to take a lot of risk it's that i [10:12] want to maximize for endurance [10:14] so i think a lot of conservative [10:16] investing strategies uh [10:18] you know are are kind of mislabeled and [10:20] a lot of uh [10:22] you know really aggressive investing [10:23] strategies might be mislabeled as well [10:25] if you're someone who is really swinging [10:27] for the fences but by swinging for the [10:28] fences you are dramatically increasing [10:30] the odds that you're going to get kicked [10:31] out of the game [10:32] either financially or psychologically [10:33] you're going to get scared out [10:35] or you're going to get kicked out [10:36] because you get a margin call you have [10:38] too much debt whatever it is [10:39] that to me is you know that might work [10:41] but that's that's just not the game that [10:43] i want to play the game that i want to [10:44] play is [10:45] is acknowledging how ridiculously [10:47] powerful compounding is [10:49] and therefore increasing the odds that i [10:50] will be able to stick around long enough [10:52] for compounding to work [10:53] that's that's the game that i want to [10:54] play and it might look conservative but [10:56] to me it's actually the opposite [10:59] can you can you expand a little bit more [11:00] on on the concept of debt we we brought [11:02] up in the podcast a while ago [11:04] the errors in nalibuf research on life [11:06] cycle investing with [11:08] leverage and how academically that's a [11:09] really interesting concept and it looks [11:11] pretty cool [11:12] on paper can can you just talk a little [11:14] bit about a little bit more about your [11:16] thoughts on the use of leverage [11:17] um i think young investors hear this and [11:19] they they love it like oh i can get [11:20] higher returns i'm [11:22] comfortable taking risk um but you've [11:24] shared some pretty good thoughts on that [11:25] i think the first time i read about [11:26] your thoughts on that was in the the pdf [11:28] that you did before [11:30] before the book along the same kind of [11:31] lines yeah if you could expand on that [11:32] to be awesome [11:33] i mean here's one way to think about it [11:35] there's this really interesting study [11:36] from yale [11:37] uh probably 10 or 12 years ago that came [11:39] out and the study showed that [11:40] historically if you [11:42] if you back test this that most [11:44] investors should use [11:45] 2x leverage 2x margin in their investing [11:48] account [11:49] and they basically show that even if you [11:50] get wiped out as you will once every 30 [11:52] years or so [11:53] even if you get wiped out as long as you [11:56] start investing the next day [11:57] again with 2x leverage over the course [11:59] of your life you will end up ahead [12:01] you'll end up dramatically ahead [12:02] that's what the data shows like everyone [12:04] should be 2x margined [12:06] in their investing accounts and that was [12:08] the end of the study that was the point [12:10] that they made [12:10] and to me it just seemed ridiculous [12:12] because it ignored the idea [12:14] that if you are investing in your [12:15] retirement account and let's say at age [12:18] 45 you get wiped out [12:19] you lose everything what are the odds [12:21] you were going to wake up the next [12:22] morning [12:23] and say okay let's get back in the game [12:25] let's keep investing it to [12:26] the odds of you doing that are zero if [12:28] you get wiped out you're going to say [12:29] screw this i'm never doing this again [12:31] this is this has been a scam i'm out of [12:33] here [12:34] so to me like the math of leverage even [12:36] when it works [12:37] if it if it ignores the psychology of [12:40] enhanced drawdowns [12:41] or catastrophic drawdowns you're losing [12:44] you're you're missing the big picture [12:46] here so i think that's one element of [12:47] debt [12:48] uh to me the other element of debt that [12:50] gets a little bit more [12:52] philosophical i guess is that my [12:54] financial goal this is this is my goal [12:56] it doesn't have to be everyone else's [12:57] goal but my goal financially [12:58] is independence i want to control my [13:00] time i don't i want to wake up every [13:02] morning and just say [13:03] whatever i want to do today that's what [13:04] i'm going to do i don't want to be [13:06] beholden to anyone else i want [13:07] independence [13:08] and what debt does is it takes your [13:11] future income [13:12] and it gives it to someone else it's [13:13] just making you beholden in some way and [13:15] beholden to someone else so that's why i [13:17] write in the book my wife and i paid off [13:19] our mortgage a couple years ago which i [13:20] write in the book was [13:21] the worst financial decision we've ever [13:23] made you like i cannot justify it on a [13:25] spreadsheet it makes no sense whatsoever [13:27] it's not rational when people ask me to [13:29] justify it i say i can't i can't justify [13:31] it doesn't make any sense whatsoever [13:33] but i think it was the best money [13:35] decision that we ever made [13:36] because it dramatically increased at [13:38] least our perception our feeling of [13:40] independence [13:41] this idea that this is our house no [13:43] one's going to take this away from me [13:44] our monthly expenses now are [13:46] ridiculously low because we have no [13:47] housing [13:48] like it just increased our independence [13:49] even if it made no sense [13:51] on paper so that's another element of [13:52] debt that i think goes misunderstood [13:54] and a lot of that for both of those [13:56] points is this idea that [13:58] people don't make financial decisions on [14:00] a spreadsheet they don't make them in [14:01] excel [14:02] they make financial decisions at the [14:03] dinner table that's where they where [14:05] they're talking about [14:06] their goals and their own different [14:08] personalities and their own unique fears [14:10] and their own unique skills and whatnot [14:12] so that's why i like i i kind of push [14:14] people to [14:16] to say like it's okay to make financial [14:18] decisions that don't make any sense on [14:19] paper if they work for you if they check [14:21] the boxes of your psychology and your [14:23] goals [14:24] that make sense for you and for me like [14:26] uh like an [14:27] extreme aversion what looks like an [14:30] irrational aversion today and i would [14:31] say is an irrational aversion to debt [14:33] is what works for me and what makes me [14:35] happy so that's why i've done it [14:37] this makes me think of chapter three of [14:38] your book called never enough [14:41] where you had some pretty powerful [14:42] stories about people with lots of money [14:44] who lost it because they wanted more [14:46] maybe can you [14:48] define what enough is and it sounds like [14:49] you and your wife did talk about what is [14:51] enough [14:51] for you guys well i think the most [14:54] important financial [14:55] skill for anyone is just getting the [14:57] goal post to stop moving [14:58] like if you are lucky enough to have a [15:00] rising income and a rising net worth [15:02] over time [15:03] but your expectations increase in [15:05] lockstep with your net worth [15:07] with your with your income you're not [15:08] going to feel that much better off it's [15:10] a classic hedonic treadmill that [15:11] everyone knows about [15:12] and so for me we spend so much time in [15:14] this industry talking about [15:15] how to raise your income how to grow [15:17] your wealth how to increase your [15:18] investment returns which is great that's [15:19] obviously an important part of the [15:20] equation but i think we almost need to [15:22] spend just as much effort [15:24] managing our expectations because if we [15:26] don't then we're just going to be on [15:28] this [15:28] treadmill over time of wondering what [15:30] the purpose of this is and wondering why [15:32] we are not happier than we assumed we [15:34] would [15:34] when we had x amount of dollars or x [15:37] higher income [15:37] why aren't we happier than we assumed we [15:39] would and i think the answer is most of [15:40] the time because your expectations grew [15:43] at the same amount if not faster than [15:45] your income we can quantify some of this [15:47] like at the macro level [15:48] if you look at the median household [15:51] income adjusted for inflation [15:52] in the 1950s it is about twice as high [15:55] today as it was as was back then [15:57] the median income adjusted for inflation [15:59] double what it is today than it was in [16:01] 1950s [16:01] but we look at the 1950s by and large as [16:04] this nostalgic period of middle class [16:07] wealth and prosperity like that was the [16:09] era of middle class prosperity but we're [16:10] twice as rich today [16:12] in median terms than we were back then [16:14] why is that to me i think the answer is [16:16] because [16:16] our expectations of what people expect [16:19] out of a material life [16:21] have more than doubled since the 1950s [16:23] so even though our incomes have doubled [16:24] if our expectations have more than [16:26] double we feel like we're worse off [16:28] and that is something too that you can [16:29] quantify the median [16:31] uh square footage of a new house in the [16:33] 1950s was less than a thousand square [16:35] feet [16:35] 950 some odd square feet today it's [16:38] about 2 400 square feet [16:40] of a median new house in the united [16:41] states so there again [16:43] is even if our incomes have doubled if [16:45] our expectations of what we [16:47] we want out of life materially have more [16:48] than doubled we feel like we're worse [16:50] off [16:51] and that just gets to this idea of [16:53] having a concept of enough which is [16:55] going to be different for everyone [16:56] and i'm not saying you know live like a [16:58] monk and don't expect anything good out [17:00] of life that's not the point either [17:02] but if you don't have a sense of what [17:03] enough is and if you don't go out of [17:05] your way to manage your expectations and [17:07] keep your expectations lower than they [17:08] might otherwise want to be [17:10] you're never going to be that happy with [17:12] the money that you have especially if [17:13] you're lucky enough again [17:14] to have a rising income and rising net [17:16] worth over time [17:19] one of the things that relates to the [17:21] concept of enough that i thought you did [17:22] a great job describing in the book [17:24] is money's greatest intrinsic value [17:27] can you talk about what that is to me i [17:30] i had touched on this a little bit [17:32] earlier but to me the greatest intrinsic [17:33] value is independence [17:34] it's not that and look it's not that i [17:36] don't like stuff i like [17:38] i like nice cars i like nice homes as [17:40] much as anyone else [17:41] but to me what money really does for you [17:44] that can really increase your quality of [17:45] life more than any [17:46] more than any of the phys the material [17:48] stuff is giving you independence and [17:50] control [17:51] and do being able to do what you want [17:53] when you want with who you want for as [17:55] long as you want that to me is something [17:57] that i think you will never get [17:58] accustomed to [17:59] that every morning that you have [18:00] independence you will wake up and say [18:02] this is great i'm not like you will get [18:05] you will get accustomed to the ferrari [18:06] you will get accustomed to the mansion [18:08] to where it's it's its uh benefit to you [18:11] will be diminished over time but [18:13] independence is something that i think [18:14] you will never [18:15] you'll never get over or more to the [18:16] point not having independence [18:18] is something that will always hurt if [18:20] you don't have it if you don't if you [18:22] don't like your job [18:23] don't like what you do but you're forced [18:24] to do it because you have to do it to [18:25] pay your bills [18:27] that level of lack of independence is [18:29] something that will lead to [18:30] a less happy a a less happy life for [18:33] most people [18:34] most of the time so i always just want [18:36] to use savings and wealth [18:38] that i can save and build over time as [18:40] just increasing my independence [18:42] like decreasing my dependence on other [18:44] people [18:45] uh and being able to do the work that i [18:47] want when i want to do it for as long as [18:49] i want to do it [18:50] and one day just higher when i want to [18:52] do it and just waking up one day and [18:53] saying look [18:54] i've i've had a good career as a writer [18:56] i've had fun but [18:57] my time is up i'm gonna i'm gonna bow [18:59] out here gracefully [19:00] when i want to rather than when i'm [19:02] forced out to do it [19:03] that is something that's really [19:04] important to me i've always really [19:06] looked up to people like [19:07] jerry seinfeld who quit on top you know [19:10] seinfeld's show was the top of the world [19:12] and when he was gonna renew [19:14] uh in i think 1998 or 1999 nbc was going [19:17] to offer him a hundred million dollars [19:18] for one season [19:19] and the show was the biggest thing in [19:21] the world and he said nah i'm good i've [19:23] i've i've had enough uh you know thanks [19:25] for everything [19:26] and he mentioned uh at one point that [19:28] the reason that he wanted to quit on top [19:30] is because he had no desire to [19:32] experience the downside [19:33] he didn't want to quit when the show's [19:35] ratings fell off a cliff and then he was [19:36] forced out he didn't want it he didn't [19:37] want to experience that he said [19:39] look i'm quitting on top because of that [19:41] because it's just like i've had enough [19:43] and this is good and i'm going to bow [19:44] here [19:44] i've always had so much respect for [19:46] people who can manage their careers in [19:47] that way [19:48] and i think if i can have and if other [19:49] people can have a level of financial [19:52] independence that lets them do something [19:53] similar to that to quit on their own [19:55] terms when they want to rather than [19:57] being forced out is something that's [19:59] really important to a quality of life [20:02] so was independence or the drive for [20:04] independence what someone is really [20:06] seeking when they say they want to be a [20:07] millionaire [20:09] i think well i think the first thing is [20:10] that it's different for everyone so [20:12] there are some people that [20:13] really genuinely want to work until the [20:15] day that they die and that might be me [20:17] as well like i'm not i'm not discounting [20:20] that either so it's different for other [20:21] people but [20:22] there is a thing when people say i kind [20:25] of [20:26] this is something that that i observed [20:27] many years ago that particularly young [20:29] people [20:29] particularly young men to single them [20:31] out when they say they want to be a [20:33] millionaire what they really mean is i [20:35] want to spend a million dollars [20:37] which i which i which i read the book is [20:39] literally the opposite of being a [20:40] millionaire [20:41] which gets to this point of like what is [20:44] wealth and to me wealth is what you have [20:46] not spent [20:47] that's what wealth is it's money that [20:48] you've saved that you've invested that [20:49] you have not spent yet [20:51] and what's important about that is that [20:52] that makes it so that wealth is [20:54] invisible [20:55] because i can see your clothes i can see [20:57] your car i can see your house [20:58] i cannot see your bank account i cannot [21:00] see your brokerage's statement [21:02] i have no idea how wealthy you are you [21:05] have no idea how wealthy i am because [21:06] you can't see that [21:07] so what we what is invisible to us is is [21:10] the la [21:10] is like the opposite of wealth in the [21:12] world and so we go through a lot of life [21:14] without any clue how wealthy or poor [21:17] some people are it's a very deceiving [21:19] thing i think it's it's [21:21] uh it's almost the opposite of like [21:23] physical fitness [21:24] because if someone is is is physically [21:27] fit or someone is obese you can see that [21:28] it's visible [21:29] and you can therefore you can say i want [21:31] to look more like person [21:33] more like this person then here's [21:34] someone who's physique i admire maybe i [21:36] should go work out because i want to [21:37] look like that as well [21:38] it's visible you can you can see it but [21:40] it's not how it works in finance since [21:42] we have no idea by and large how wealthy [21:44] most people are [21:45] or or the opposite of how buried in debt [21:48] some people who look like they are [21:49] wealthy are [21:50] we go through life with i think a lot of [21:52] false role models [21:54] uh and it it makes it very difficult to [21:56] really look up to the right [21:58] people and emulate the right people and [21:59] by and large the people who [22:02] uh you know look wealthy because they're [22:04] driving a fancy car they live in a nice [22:05] house whatever they give the appearance [22:07] of wealth [22:09] a pretty shockingly high percentage of [22:11] those people are not people who you [22:12] would actually consider wealthy if you [22:14] saw their finances [22:15] they're people who are you know leasing [22:17] ferraris and they're buried in debt with [22:19] huge mortgages that they can barely pay [22:21] that they can barely pay every month and [22:23] it just makes the appearance of wealth [22:26] much more uh difficult to grasp than i [22:28] think people imagined [22:32] one of the big things in committing to a [22:34] long-term investing strategy [22:36] using low-cost index funds that kind of [22:38] thing [22:39] is optimism but when you look at the [22:41] news and when you look when you just [22:42] look around anywhere [22:44] there's so many reasons to be [22:45] pessimistic can you can you talk a [22:47] little bit about some of the ways that [22:48] people can deal with [22:50] the pessimism that's so hard to escape i [22:53] mean to me i think [22:54] the the the big philosophy that i have [22:55] for my own money and i think it will [22:57] work for a lot of other people too [22:58] is save like a pessimist and invest like [23:01] an optimist [23:02] you need to save like a pessimist with [23:03] the idea that if you look historically [23:06] bad news is the default like in any [23:08] given year any given month [23:10] all around the world things are breaking [23:12] things are breaking all the time [23:14] and and if you look at the economy you [23:16] know the history of economics is [23:18] kind of a constant chain of recessions [23:20] and bear markets and companies going out [23:22] of business and [23:23] missed expectations it's a lot of bad [23:26] news [23:26] so you need to save like a pessimist so [23:28] that you can survive that [23:30] gauntlet the never-ending short-term [23:32] gauntlet that is always going to be the [23:33] case [23:34] um and that's why for me it's having a [23:36] reasonable amount of cash and no debt so [23:37] i can survive that gauntlet [23:39] but on the other hand you want to invest [23:40] like an optimist because if you also [23:42] know economic history you [23:43] know that in any given decade in any [23:45] given generation [23:47] almost for almost everyone almost [23:48] everywhere there's a lot of progress [23:50] and if you understand the power of [23:52] compounding over the course of your [23:53] lifetime there could be a ridiculous [23:55] amount of progress that's going to [23:56] accrue to you as an investor and make [23:58] you very wealthy [23:59] so so like those two skills seem like [24:02] they're conflicting [24:03] save like a pessimist and that's like an [24:04] optimist but i think you [24:06] um you know the the way that i phrase it [24:08] in the book is there's a difference [24:09] between getting rich and staying rich [24:11] getting rich requires being an optimist [24:14] swinging for the fences taking a risk [24:16] being really optimistic about humanity [24:18] and people's ability to solve problems [24:20] staying rich requires almost the [24:21] opposite it requires a certain degree of [24:23] paranoia [24:24] about about uncertainty and things that [24:27] you don't know and not wanting to take a [24:28] lot of risks so that you don't get wiped [24:30] out [24:30] and you need to nurture both of those [24:31] skills at the same time they need to be [24:33] nurtured separately [24:34] and i think it's hard to do that because [24:36] they seem like they're conflicting it's [24:37] much more [24:38] uh intuitive to think that you should [24:40] either be an optimist or a pessimist [24:42] you should either be like the dewey eyed [24:44] everything is going to be great [24:46] or you should be the bunker living you [24:48] know things are going to fall to pieces [24:50] it's more intuitive you should be one of [24:51] those but i think you need to have [24:52] elements of both [24:54] to do well for the longest period of [24:55] time [24:57] great answer this is the rational [24:59] reminder podcast do you think people [25:01] should [25:02] try to be rational i i i write in the [25:05] book that [25:06] uh no i don't and it's not that i don't [25:09] think people should be [25:10] rational it's that i think that again [25:13] people don't make financial decisions [25:15] on a spreadsheet where all the numbers [25:17] uh match up [25:18] and you know think of investing like [25:20] it's physics where or math where two [25:22] plus two equals four for me and you and [25:24] everyone else it's all just a clean [25:26] equation that gives you an answer and [25:27] then you follow the answer [25:28] i just don't think that's what finance [25:30] is since everyone has [25:32] different personalities different [25:34] histories different goals different [25:35] family dynamics different expenses [25:37] different views about politics in the [25:39] world [25:40] equally intelligent informed people are [25:42] going to come to different decisions [25:43] and what i do with my money might not [25:45] make any sense for you [25:47] and and that's okay it doesn't mean that [25:49] we disagree [25:50] it just means that this is different [25:51] it's very similar to how people [25:53] date and find spouses like everyone has [25:55] a little bit different view of what [25:56] they're looking for [25:58] and therefore there's not there like you [26:00] you you cannot summarize what makes a [26:02] good spouse [26:03] into a math equation it's just not how [26:05] it works it's a very nuanced [26:07] personal thing and what works for you [26:09] might be different from me but that's [26:10] fine we're [26:11] like if it works that's great so i think [26:13] for financial decisions [26:14] aiming to be reasonable instead of [26:16] rational [26:17] is probably the better goal for people [26:20] and just like i mentioned earlier with [26:21] my mortgage [26:22] that's not rational whenever i mention [26:24] that there's always someone who tries to [26:26] like walk me through the math and i shut [26:28] them down i'm like no no no [26:30] you're right the math makes no sense [26:31] it's not rational i know i know it [26:33] doesn't make any sense [26:34] but it's reasonable for me it's what i [26:36] wanted to do and it made us happier so [26:37] that's why we did it [26:38] and i think if more people kind of [26:40] embrace that that being reasonable [26:42] is is the best you can do that's great i [26:44] mean one other example is [26:46] the well-documented home bias in [26:48] investing [26:49] where people who live in the united [26:50] states by and large only own [26:52] u.s stocks people who live in germany [26:54] only own german stocks et cetera there's [26:55] a home bias to investing [26:57] it's not rational at all there's no [26:59] reason to think that the companies based [27:01] closest to your house are going to [27:03] perform the best that makes [27:04] there's no ration to that but it's [27:06] pretty reasonable [27:07] if if owning companies that you are [27:10] familiar with because you drive past [27:12] them every day [27:13] if that helps you take the leap of faith [27:15] of being able to stick with a company [27:17] for a long period of time because you're [27:18] familiar with it it's not just some for [27:20] a couple you've never heard of you've [27:21] never seen their logo you have no idea [27:22] what they do [27:23] but if you're owning companies that [27:24] you're familiar with because they are [27:25] based in your hometown [27:27] that's actually a pretty reasonable [27:28] thing to do if it's going to help you [27:29] stay in the game and stay motivated [27:31] then that's a reasonable thing even if [27:33] it's not rational [27:35] where do you see the role of financial [27:37] advice fitting into all this so if we if [27:39] we're saying [27:39] it's good for people to make reasonable [27:41] decisions does it also make sense to [27:43] have a sort of rational voice in your [27:45] ear [27:45] for for some people to find a balance [27:48] between what's rational and what's [27:49] reasonable [27:50] you know i think one good analogy here [27:52] is a doctor [27:54] because if you go to see the doctor and [27:55] let's say you have a very serious [27:57] terminal illness [27:58] what most doctors will tell you and i'm [28:00] not a doctor this is just my impression [28:02] what most doctors will say is this is [28:04] what's happening [28:05] these are your options here's what i can [28:07] do and then they will say what do you [28:09] want to do [28:10] and the reason that they do that is [28:11] because let's say someone has terminal [28:13] cancer [28:14] one patient might say i want surgery i [28:15] want chemotherapy i want everything [28:17] another patient might say i just want i [28:20] just want morphine and palliative care [28:21] and i'm just going to go home and let [28:22] nature take its toll [28:24] and both of those answers could be right [28:25] for that person so the role of the [28:27] doctor is basically to lay out the [28:28] options [28:30] uh and lay out the science and then let [28:32] the patient do what they want to do [28:34] and i think financial advising is very [28:36] similar luckily the stakes are usually [28:37] not quite as high as that but [28:39] if you're a financial advisor and you [28:40] can say this is how the economy works [28:43] this is how investing historically works [28:45] these are our options now let me ask you [28:46] what do you want to do what makes the [28:48] most sense to you [28:49] because different clients who are the [28:50] same age same income everything might [28:52] come to completely different [28:53] different conclusions and that's fine so [28:55] i think the more that we can view [28:57] finance the less that we can view [28:58] finance as a one-size-fits-all endeavor [29:01] and the more that we can view it as a [29:02] personal endeavor there's a great quote [29:04] from a financial advisor named person [29:05] named tim mauer who says uh personal [29:08] finance is more personal than it is [29:10] finance [29:10] i think the more that financial advisors [29:12] can embrace that the better they're [29:14] going to end up doing [29:15] and i think what that means is that a [29:17] financial advisor views themselves [29:19] less as a gatekeeper of knowledge and [29:21] information [29:22] and more as a person a personal [29:26] financial psychologist who's just like [29:27] laying out the options and then helping [29:29] you make the decision among the options [29:30] that you have in front of you [29:32] and realizing that everyone's going to [29:33] be different rather than you know like [29:35] an engineer and you're paying the [29:36] engineer to get the information from [29:38] them i think that's not what a financial [29:39] advisor should [29:40] do it's much more about helping you [29:41] contextualize your own life [29:43] and how you can use a financial plan to [29:45] help that [29:47] cameron mentioned and obviously you know [29:48] the name of the podcast is the rational [29:49] reminder but [29:50] what you just described is the way that [29:52] we think about that it's not we're not [29:53] trying to tell people they should be [29:54] rational [29:55] it's like if we can give you the [29:56] information that a rational person would [29:58] use [29:58] you can choose how to use that but at [30:00] least you have that as a starting point [30:02] yep yeah no i think it's it's really [30:03] important and it's hard for people [30:04] because a lot of people want to think [30:06] that [30:06] finance is like math where you know two [30:09] plus two equals four for everyone [30:11] and i just think it's not it's much [30:12] closer to something maybe even like [30:14] medicine or [30:15] like relationships where equally smart [30:16] people come to very different [30:17] conclusions [30:20] yeah and to that point i mean you've [30:21] written about how the industry is way [30:23] too entrenched on one side or the other [30:25] of the [30:25] active versus passive or index fund [30:28] debate [30:29] can you talk about a scenario scenario [30:31] where it might be better off [30:33] being active or trying to beat the [30:34] market well look [30:36] i'm i'm a pretty passive investor [30:38] there's a chapter in the book where i [30:39] lay out my my household finances there's [30:42] no numbers but i actually here's [30:44] everything that we do with our money [30:45] and i'm a passive investor like my [30:47] entire net worth is a house a checking [30:49] account and some vanguard funds and [30:51] that's that's [30:51] that's everything we have um but i'm not [30:54] a passive zealot i'm not one of the [30:56] people who say you can't beat the market [30:57] don't even try [30:58] no one should try to do it everyone who [31:00] tries is just trying to [31:01] you know scrape fees off i'm i'm not [31:03] that i'm not that person at all [31:05] i know that there are investors who will [31:07] outperform the market and i'm friends [31:09] with some of them [31:10] but i still don't invest in their funds [31:11] why does that seem hypocritical i don't [31:14] think it is [31:15] uh because to me again what i'm really [31:17] trying to maximize for [31:19] is endurance and if i can stay invested [31:21] in my index funds for another 30 40 [31:23] 50 years i'm gonna check every financial [31:26] goal that i have and then some i'll [31:27] probably end up [31:28] literally in the top decile of all [31:30] investors if i can do that [31:33] and but it but that's a big if so the [31:36] the [31:37] my strategy for investing is again is [31:39] increasing my endurance and i'm going to [31:41] do that [31:41] if i can have the simplest investing [31:43] approach possible if i can have the [31:44] fewest knobs [31:46] to fiddle with the fewest levers to pull [31:48] in my investing life [31:50] that will increase my ability to leave [31:51] it alone the fewer decisions that i have [31:53] to make the more endurance i'm going to [31:55] have so that's why i want the simplest [31:56] strategy [31:57] it's not because i don't think people [31:58] can beat the market it's that if i [32:00] invested in those funds if i employed [32:02] those strategies [32:03] it would decrease my endurance it would [32:06] like the more decisions i have to make [32:08] the more odds there are to [32:10] make a decision that's going to screw [32:11] everything up charlie munger has a great [32:13] quote where he says [32:14] the first rule of compounding is to [32:16] never interrupt it unnecessarily [32:18] and that to me is like that's my that's [32:20] what i want written on my on my [32:22] investing tombstone like that to me is [32:23] all of investing [32:25] summarized and and the the simple [32:27] approach that i have [32:29] uh is is hopefully going to increase my [32:31] endurance but i understand that my [32:32] personality and my goals [32:34] won't be for everyone so if you are an [32:36] investor who know like what is really [32:37] important to you [32:38] is that you beat the market this year [32:39] over the next five or ten years [32:41] i think there are investors out there [32:42] who can do that and i would recommend [32:44] some of them to you even if it doesn't [32:45] necessarily work for me [32:48] that's really interesting one of the [32:50] questions that we've been getting a fair [32:52] amount recently is about [32:53] fixed income just because of where [32:55] interest rates are and what the fixed [32:56] income market's done over the last [32:58] couple of [32:59] couple of decades you talked about the [33:01] maybe misconceptions around what it [33:03] means to be a conservative versus an [33:04] aggressive investor and you talked about [33:06] your personal large [33:07] cash allocation how do you think people [33:09] should be thinking about fixed income in [33:11] portfolios [33:12] i think the biggest thing about fixed [33:14] income is that you know we had a [33:15] a 40-year period now with falling [33:18] interest rates [33:19] where you could earn great returns on [33:21] bond you know [33:22] if you own long-term treasury bonds for [33:24] the last 30 or 40 years [33:25] they probably did better than your stock [33:26] portfolio by and large [33:28] and i think it's important to realize [33:29] that now that we live in this [33:31] zero interest rate environment where [33:32] that doesn't occur anymore it was the [33:34] 40-year period where you could earn 10 [33:36] a year on your bonds that was the [33:38] anomaly what we're dealing with today is [33:40] not the anomaly where bonds don't give [33:41] you that much [33:42] real return that's kind of par for the [33:44] course it was this [33:45] it was a period from 1980 to 2010 where [33:47] bonds were just incredible return [33:49] generators [33:50] that was the that that was the [33:52] historical fluke [33:53] so i think it's important to shift your [33:54] expectations from bonds to [33:56] from something that generated wealth to [33:59] you towards [34:00] what i think is the real purpose of [34:01] bonds which is providing an [34:03] airbag to your psychology to make sure [34:06] that you do not get scared out of the [34:08] stocks that you do own [34:09] so if you have a 60 40 portfolio the 40 [34:12] that you have in bonds the sole purpose [34:14] of that is to make sure that you can [34:16] leave the 60 [34:17] you have in stocks alone that's its [34:18] purpose you don't get scared out [34:20] you know that you don't get pushed out [34:22] financially or psychologically [34:23] and that's a really important part of a [34:26] portfolio [34:26] if if having you know 20 30 40 [34:30] of your assets and bonds will keep keep [34:32] you from selling your stocks in march of [34:34] 2020 or in 2008 [34:36] then the zero percent return that you're [34:38] going to earn on your bonds is well [34:39] worth it [34:40] because the amount of damage that would [34:41] be inflicted if you panicked in march of [34:43] this year [34:44] is something that you're never going to [34:45] be able to make up for so it's a really [34:47] it's still [34:48] a very valuable part of your portfolio [34:50] and it's easy [34:52] to look at your bonds and say oh my [34:54] bonds are you know yielding [34:55] 0.3 percent that's the return i'm [34:58] getting and i think [34:58] i would caution against that i would say [35:00] no the real return you're getting is [35:01] actually very high [35:03] because if they can prevent you from [35:04] panic selling your stocks then the [35:06] return the hidden return on your bonds [35:08] is actually through the roof and it's [35:10] going to make all the difference in the [35:11] world [35:11] uh to your lifetime investing returns so [35:14] it just has to do with [35:15] shifting your perspective on what the [35:16] purpose of bonds is [35:19] you mentioned tim mauer's quote the [35:21] personal part of personal finance being [35:23] so important [35:24] can you talk about the importance of an [35:26] advisor [35:27] in that relationship and the impact or [35:30] you know so many [35:31] popular robo-advisors and do-it-yourself [35:34] investment [35:35] resources out there i think again to use [35:38] an analogy of doctors [35:40] most doctors have their own doctors that [35:42] they go see [35:44] if you are if you are a family doctor [35:46] you have your own family doctor that you [35:48] see for your own health [35:49] and it's not that going to another [35:51] doctor because they have more [35:52] information than you [35:54] like if you are a doctor yourself you [35:55] have all of the medical knowledge that [35:57] someone else has but you still go to [35:58] another doctor [35:59] because you need someone else who does [36:01] not have the emotional baggage that you [36:02] do [36:03] they can look at your life with a clean [36:05] unbiased set of eyes [36:07] and can identify parts of your life that [36:09] might be unhealthy that you might be [36:10] have a higher propensity to overlook [36:12] because they're uncomfortable to talk [36:14] about whatever it is [36:15] i think investors should have the same [36:17] and even if you are a very smart [36:19] sophisticated investor [36:20] and you know everything it's still [36:23] important to have [36:25] some sort of advisor who you go and talk [36:26] with that you can bounce stuff off of [36:28] i didn't speak with a financial advisor [36:30] at all until about a year ago until i i [36:32] had [36:33] i had a a a good friend of mine who's a [36:35] financial advisor [36:36] i just opened the kimono to our personal [36:38] finances and he had a lot of insight [36:40] that i [36:40] never would have considered and it was [36:42] really eye-opening to me in terms of my [36:44] ego at the time of saying i know a lot [36:46] about investing this is what i do for as [36:48] a profession i don't need a financial [36:49] advisor [36:50] and then he my friend brought up 10 [36:52] points that i had never in a war in a [36:54] million years considered [36:55] that we were doing so that was really [36:57] eye-opening to me and a lot of the [36:59] points that he brought up i won't go [37:00] into details about him [37:01] but there were probably things that i [37:02] was overlooking because they were a [37:04] little bit too [37:05] painful to consider maybe they were too [37:07] boring to consider [37:08] and but they were so obvious when he [37:10] brought up which is just to say that i [37:11] think the purpose of a financial advisor [37:14] is again it's not necessarily being a [37:16] gatekeeper of information [37:17] it's being an unbiased set of eyes to [37:19] people to [37:20] uncover and discuss uh topics [37:24] that they would not that that someone [37:25] else would not consider [37:27] because they're too painful to consider [37:29] or too boring to consider in their own [37:31] lives [37:31] again it it's much more closer i think [37:34] to being a financial psychologist [37:36] which was not the case 20 or 30 years [37:37] ago when [37:39] back before the internet era a financial [37:41] advisor was [37:42] an information gatekeeper if you wanted [37:44] to learn about what the best [37:45] funds were if you wanted to learn about [37:48] the new rules and the tax code [37:49] you had to go to your advisor at merrill [37:51] lynch because there's no other way to [37:52] get that information [37:53] not the case anymore all that [37:54] information is for free for everyone [37:56] online [37:57] you can get custom portfolios from [37:59] vanguard and betterment you don't need [38:00] an advisor [38:01] but the value of an advisor is still [38:02] incredibly important [38:04] in that ability to uh you know really [38:07] analyze someone's life in a way that [38:08] they would not analyze on their own [38:12] it's a great way to think about it you [38:14] wrote a post [38:15] in in november about the big lessons [38:18] from history [38:19] and i i kind of want to ask you what [38:22] what lessons we can take away from uh [38:23] from this year from 2020 but your post [38:26] explicitly says [38:27] maybe we can't and there are bigger [38:29] lessons that we can we can think about [38:31] um are there any lessons that we can [38:33] take away from [38:34] a year like this i think the the biggest [38:37] uh [38:38] lesson this was well before covet this [38:40] was maybe 2017. i went to [38:42] a a large dinner with daniel kahneman [38:44] and conman is a psychologist won the [38:45] nobel prize in economics [38:47] and he mentioned something that i love [38:48] he's so he's so quotable [38:50] but he said uh when you are surprised [38:54] the biggest lesson that you should take [38:55] away from that is that the world is [38:56] surprising [38:57] it's not that oh i was missing this bit [39:00] of information and now i should [39:01] incorporate that into my forecasting [39:02] model [39:03] the lesson from surprises is that the [39:04] world is surprising so [39:06] i think that's the lesson from 2020. uh [39:08] to to me the [39:09] the like the biggest risk in any given [39:12] year is usually what no one is talking [39:14] about until it happens [39:15] it's not what's in the news it's not [39:16] what we've been predicting for months [39:18] it's not trade wars it's not the [39:19] election it's not the pending [39:20] legislation on the tax code [39:22] it's not that those things are not risky [39:23] but we know about them they're in the [39:25] news we know about them [39:26] the biggest risk is always something [39:27] like coven 19 or september 11th [39:30] or pearl harbor something that no one [39:33] was talking about until the [39:34] moment it happened and i think that's [39:35] going to be the case in the future as [39:37] well [39:38] i think we can confidently say here [39:39] today that the most important news story [39:42] of 2021 [39:43] is something that no one is talking [39:45] about today because it's [39:46] it's impossible to talk about because it [39:48] hasn't occurred or there's information [39:49] that no one has yet [39:51] and i can confidently make that [39:52] prediction because that's how it works [39:54] every year the biggest news story in [39:56] every year is something that was a [39:57] surprise [39:58] and kova 19 is like a blunt force in [40:00] your face [40:01] example of that that completely changed [40:03] the world but that's always going to be [40:04] the case [40:05] i mean and the longer the time horizon [40:07] the more that the bigger that's the case [40:09] as well if we talk [40:10] about what's going to be the the biggest [40:11] news story of the next 50 years [40:14] 100 chance that it is something that you [40:16] and i or no one else is talking about [40:18] today it's going to be a complete [40:19] surprise [40:20] the surprising aspect of it is what [40:21] makes it a big deal because no one's [40:23] prepared [40:24] for it so it completely upends their [40:26] plans people get completely wiped out [40:28] overnight because something happened [40:29] that they weren't expecting [40:30] i think that's always the case it's the [40:32] classic talib black swan [40:34] idea that the the biggest things that [40:36] move the needle in history [40:38] is what no one is prepared for that have [40:40] these outsized consequences [40:43] you mentioned earlier that you place a [40:44] high value on independence and that's an [40:46] important part of money [40:48] and i completely agree what do you think [40:51] about the [40:52] maybe extreme end of that with the with [40:54] the financial independence retire [40:55] early movement i think it's i think it's [40:59] by and large great if there's if there's [41:01] something that i might not not disagree [41:03] because everyone's different but if i [41:05] get [41:05] if i raise a skeptical eyebrow to a part [41:07] of it it's that [41:08] actually quitting work when you're 25 or [41:11] 35 whatever it is [41:13] uh i think most people are gonna lose [41:16] a degree of of uh of identity [41:20] and and uh their their place in the [41:23] world [41:23] if they're truly doing nothing now most [41:25] people in the fire movement [41:26] if you if you brought that up to them [41:27] they would say it's not that i'm gonna [41:29] quit work it's that i'm gonna just do [41:30] the work that i like doing i'm gonna [41:32] i'm gonna take the job that i really [41:33] enjoy so that that's great i think [41:35] that's great but there are [41:36] there there are a subset of people that [41:38] i think are doing this so that they can [41:40] retire and play golf when they're 25. [41:42] and in my view the majority of those [41:43] people not all of them but the majority [41:45] after doing that for about two months [41:47] we'll say this isn't what i expected i'm [41:49] not happy because they're not happy [41:50] because they're not [41:51] they're not providing value in the world [41:53] they're not tied [41:54] in with a group of co-workers that they [41:55] love they're not being productive in the [41:57] world [41:57] not all of them okay i'm painting such a [41:59] broad brush here but if there's one part [42:01] of the movement that i think will be [42:03] uh you know that a lot of people will [42:05] look back with skepticism of it's that [42:07] the other part that is a little bit [42:08] concerning to me is that the fire [42:10] movement really picked up steam [42:11] during a giant bull market like it kind [42:14] of came into fruition like [42:16] 2011 2012 and then it took off from [42:18] there that was a period where the market [42:19] was going up [42:20] 15 20 per year uh is it different this [42:23] year now that you know the market lost [42:25] 35 percent of its value in march maybe [42:27] but then we've already had this big [42:29] rebound what is the fire movement going [42:30] to look like [42:32] if we have something more analogous to [42:34] 2008 where [42:35] where it took several years to recover [42:37] or the 1970s and 80s where you had a [42:39] 20-year period with [42:41] no real returns what does a fire [42:43] movement look like in that world [42:44] versus a world where it's been [42:47] relatively easy to make money in the [42:48] market over the last decade [42:50] that that's another aspect of it that i [42:52] think will be interesting particularly [42:54] for the people in the fire movement who [42:55] when you read the the numbers of it are [42:58] really [42:58] skimming the edges pretty close of you [43:01] know tiring with [43:03] three or four hundred grand and they're [43:04] living off of that [43:06] well if you have a 50 market decline [43:08] that stays there for [43:09] 10 years and you're trying to live off [43:11] of 300 grand [43:13] that gets dicey yeah we've talked a bit [43:16] about the [43:17] the downfalls of the four percent rule [43:19] in general uh [43:20] in the pod on the podcast in the past uh [43:23] look [43:23] what's important about the the four [43:25] percent rule is is designed historically [43:27] it's tested historically during periods [43:29] like the 70s and 80s it's not that you [43:31] can't withstand it [43:32] uh in technical terms to me it's more [43:34] like can you stand it in psychological [43:36] terms [43:36] can you uh you know have a a pretty [43:40] tight financial situation [43:41] and then watch your net worth decline 50 [43:43] and still wake up and say [43:45] i'm fine and i'm okay i'm independent [43:47] can you still maintain that like i don't [43:49] know maybe some people can but i think a [43:51] lot of people won't be able to [43:52] yeah it ends up requiring a lot of faith [43:54] in whatever whatever spending rule that [43:56] you're uh [43:57] that you're using and then people like [43:58] us saying why it doesn't make sense you [44:00] can see why that makes a [44:01] a lot of people so angry uh [44:04] we talked about index funds and how [44:06] that's really changed the the nature of [44:09] financial advice um because for that [44:12] piece of it people can just go and get [44:13] it really easily now [44:15] do you have any sense or opinions or [44:17] thoughts on what the next big [44:18] financial innovation is going to be [44:20] that's going to help individual [44:20] investors [44:22] i don't know that's that's a great [44:24] question to me i think the big missing [44:25] element [44:26] in terms of what's missing in the world [44:28] is [44:29] so we we've been able to robotize if [44:32] that's a word [44:33] portfolios um and we've kind of cracked [44:36] the code on portfolio management and [44:38] fees have fallen to [44:39] basically zero on portfolio management [44:41] like we figured that part out [44:43] we've not been able to robotize or you [44:46] know [44:46] systematize financial advice and i don't [44:49] know if we can because it's [44:51] different for everyone it's one thing if [44:53] you are a betterment and you can say [44:54] here's an allocation based off of your [44:56] age that probably works for you [44:58] but it's totally different when you get [44:59] into people's individual personalities [45:01] their goals their expenses their [45:03] marriage situations are you getting [45:04] divorced well there's all these other [45:05] messy elements [45:07] of providing a holistic financial plan [45:09] that we have not been able to use [45:11] technology very well to scale that up [45:13] and bring costs down [45:15] and which is why by and large the [45:16] financial advice industry [45:18] kind of still has a similar fee [45:20] structure and fee amount that it did 10 [45:22] 20 years ago [45:23] where and you know the the the fee for [45:25] mutual funds and index funds have fallen [45:27] 90 percent but the fees for financial [45:29] advisors have not [45:31] and i i don't know if we will ever crack [45:33] that code i know i don't know if you can [45:35] but i think that's kind of the missing [45:36] element if i were a really ambitious [45:39] fintech entrepreneur that's the missing [45:41] element where you can add a tremendous [45:43] amount of value that hasn't really been [45:45] disrupted yet [45:46] i just to me i i have no idea [45:49] how you would disrupt that but i think [45:51] if there is a potential to be a huge [45:53] innovation that really moves the needle [45:55] in the financial space it's that [45:58] i'm curious your answer to the next [45:59] question morgan so someone called you on [46:02] march 23rd [46:03] the depths of the the crash this past [46:06] march [46:06] what would you have told someone who [46:08] said they're thinking of selling their [46:09] portfolio and going to cash [46:12] i'm actually fairly empathetic to these [46:16] these situations uh if like the the [46:19] right answer is of course don't [46:20] that's the right answer right but the [46:23] purpose of money is to give you a good [46:25] life [46:25] that's that's why we're doing this and [46:27] if the amount of financial [46:29] uncertainty of watching your portfolio [46:31] decline if that's giving you [46:32] a a bad life if you're losing sleep if [46:35] you're talking your kids in at night and [46:37] you're saying yourself i don't know [46:38] whether i'm going to be able to afford [46:39] college for you now [46:41] if that's if that's grading on your life [46:42] so much that bailing out is going to [46:45] relieve that pressure i'm i'm empathetic [46:47] to that even if i think it's the wrong [46:49] answer [46:50] so i would like it depends on on the [46:52] person it depends on the amount of [46:53] stress that they that they have [46:55] obviously you want to deal with those [46:57] problems before march of 20 [46:59] before march of 2020 you want to really [47:02] look historically at the odds of decline [47:04] at the odds of [47:05] of of of of market volatility [47:08] historically [47:09] and be able to try to predict how you're [47:11] going to react to that [47:12] before it happens but for people who [47:14] don't um you know it's [47:16] it's it's i i'm empathetic to that i [47:18] think it's [47:19] i mean it's similar to someone like [47:21] let's let's say someone [47:22] goes to law school and they go into two [47:24] hundred thousand dollars of debt [47:26] and they grind through three years of [47:27] law school and they've devoted to [47:29] they've devoted their life to it and [47:31] then they get a job as [47:32] as as a big attorney at a big new york [47:35] law firm and they hate it they hate [47:36] every second of it and they say i don't [47:38] want to do this anymore [47:39] i think most people in that situation [47:40] would say hey sunk costs [47:42] don't worry about it live the life you [47:43] want to live if you want to quit and go [47:45] be a school teacher [47:45] do it do what you want to do and i think [47:47] there is some analogy to that [47:49] with investments as well even if it's [47:51] it's such a painful answer to say look [47:53] you're bailing out the wrong time that's [47:54] going to devastate your finances for the [47:56] rest of your life [47:57] but if it's what you want to do like i [47:58] can be empathetic to that um [48:00] i think there also was a thing about in [48:01] march of 2012 of march of this year [48:03] where [48:04] the cause of the decline was so [48:07] unprecedented for all of us it wasn't a [48:09] financial crisis it wasn't [48:11] you know manufacturing numbers had [48:13] declines or having a run-of-the-mill [48:14] recession [48:15] it was this is the pandemic that is [48:17] shutting down the world in a way that we [48:19] have not [48:20] seen and even if you look at the great [48:21] depression if even if you use that as [48:23] your analogy [48:24] during the great depression you had [48:26] industry volumes and incomes where [48:28] uh you know revenues would be down 25 30 [48:33] and that was that's the great depression [48:34] in march of this year you had things [48:36] like [48:37] like airlines where revenue was down 90 [48:39] it was just a [48:40] totally different dimension than [48:41] anything we had dealt with before [48:43] and i have really smart sophisticated [48:46] friends who i admire in this industry [48:49] where i was talking to them in march and [48:50] they were saying [48:52] i'm like like forget about buying stocks [48:54] i'm buying guns and ammunition right now [48:56] and i also like it's easy to look back [48:58] at that and see and [48:59] think that that was ridiculous and that [49:02] was you know [49:03] you know really extreme but i think both [49:06] in 2008 [49:07] and in march of 2020 it probably should [49:10] have turned out worse than it did [49:12] i think in both 2008 and march of this [49:13] year we got lucky [49:15] you can imagine a situation in 2008 [49:17] where [49:18] there was no tarp and the federal [49:20] reserve sat on its hands [49:22] and we got a financial collapse similar [49:23] that we did in the 19th early 1930s [49:26] you can imagine a situation in march of [49:27] this year particularly an election year [49:29] where there was no cares act and we [49:31] would have been looking at great [49:32] depression too [49:33] i think those things are not only [49:35] possible i think those things were [49:37] probable [49:38] and the fact that we ended where we did [49:40] is [49:41] i think something that we ended up [49:42] fairly fortunate which is just to say [49:44] back in if i think about my own views in [49:46] march of this year like i didn't i [49:48] didn't sell i didn't panic [49:49] but i was scared i was really scared [49:51] about the state of the world as i think [49:52] we all were [49:53] and it just increases the odds that [49:55] you're gonna make a decision that you [49:56] never imagined you would [49:58] when you're in that heat of the moment [50:01] hey listen i i think i can keep pretty [50:02] level head most of the time [50:04] in when things were getting really bad [50:06] my wife and i [50:07] talked about knowing that we had the [50:09] sheets of plywood in the shadow back [50:11] that we could use to cover the windows [50:12] if it came to that and it was not a [50:13] joking conversation like it was [50:15] that's crazy to think about but we [50:17] really had that conversation [50:18] it's bad i mean it's really interesting [50:20] too during the great depression that was [50:22] another situation where [50:23] it probably should have turned out worse [50:24] than it did i mean a lot of [50:26] european nations in the 1930s their [50:30] response to financial collapse was to [50:32] embrace fascism [50:33] that was the rise of hitler the rasmus [50:35] you know that was that was that was [50:37] it turned out worse in a lot of other [50:39] nations than it did in the united states [50:40] and there was actually a very big push [50:42] in the 1930s [50:44] to embrace something closer to european [50:46] style fascism in the 1930s that didn't [50:48] happen but [50:49] it was pushed heavily in the heat of the [50:51] moment when everything is collapsing [50:53] around you [50:54] people start embracing ideas that they [50:55] never would have thought possible [50:57] when the economy is strong i remember [50:59] reading the the great depression a diary [51:01] and that was one of the [51:02] big takeaways that i had from that was [51:04] that whole mentality people [51:06] were thinking this bet on capitalism [51:08] maybe isn't such a good bet [51:10] uh after all you're and there's there's [51:12] a thing in the 1930s that people should [51:13] read about i think it's one of the most [51:15] fascinating stories of american history [51:16] it's called the business plot [51:18] and it was in i think 1933 where a group [51:22] of very wealthy businessmen and military [51:24] leaders [51:25] came together and they started planning [51:27] a coup to overthrow fdr [51:29] and install a military leader named [51:31] smedley butler [51:32] as the new fascist leader of the united [51:34] states and they were very serious [51:36] and organized and it's it's easy to read [51:38] that and say [51:39] hahaha that never happened but that [51:41] happened in germany that happened in [51:42] italy that happened [51:43] other places around the world at the [51:44] same time it's just [51:46] crazy to me to think of what world [51:48] history would have been like if that [51:49] happened [51:50] that is crazy to think about your [51:52] comments about being empathetic to [51:53] people that [51:54] that want to go to cash they lined up [51:56] really well [51:57] with uh we we had professor ken french [51:59] on uh in episode 100 of this podcast [52:02] a few weeks back and he said you [52:04] shouldn't try to time the market [52:06] but if you feel really really really bad [52:08] in a crash [52:09] you've got a new data point you might [52:10] have learned something about yourself [52:12] and maybe you should change your [52:13] portfolio [52:14] yeah i think i think that's right like [52:16] we're all just trying to learn about [52:17] ourselves not just learn about the [52:19] economy [52:19] but i think 2020 and 2008 is a good time [52:22] to be introspective about yourselves [52:24] and you really start realizing what your [52:25] old your own goals are similar to if you [52:27] have [52:28] a near-death experience a lot of times [52:29] that will push people to saying [52:31] look after my near-death experience [52:33] that's when i quit my job to spend more [52:34] time with my family [52:35] i think in a less dramatic way 2008 and [52:38] 2020 does that for our finances [52:40] once once you're looking down the pit of [52:43] despair that's when you really realize [52:44] like [52:45] okay what is my risk tolerance do i [52:47] actually have this risk tolerance that i [52:48] thought i did [52:49] one year ago maybe i don't and therefore [52:51] i should embrace that with both hands [52:52] and do things a little bit differently [52:54] than it was before this that is a [52:56] perfect lead into our last question for [52:58] you morgan [53:00] and it's a listener favorite how do you [53:02] define success in your life [53:05] it's different for everyone but for me [53:07] success in life is [53:09] i mean what matters to me more than than [53:11] anything else and i think a lot of [53:12] people will relate to this of course [53:14] is my wife and my kids that's that's [53:15] everything i love my job i love my [53:17] career [53:18] but i feel like i'm doing it for them [53:20] not in not not because i'm suffering [53:22] through it but i feel like that's that's [53:24] just everything for me so [53:25] to me it doesn't matter how much money [53:27] you make it doesn't matter what career [53:29] you're in doesn't matter where you went [53:30] to school [53:31] if you're working hard to support your [53:32] family like you've checked 95 [53:34] of the boxes that you can check for me [53:36] different for everyone but [53:37] that's that's who i really respect in [53:39] life for people who are just waking up [53:41] and working hard to support their [53:42] families that's [53:43] that's my kind of person that's what i [53:44] like so to me that's that's a lot of [53:46] what success is [53:47] in in life is working hard out of [53:50] devotion [53:51] and support to other people and it [53:54] like even who are not married who don't [53:55] have kids if you're working hard out of [53:57] devotion and support to other people [53:58] as well like that to me is like that's [54:00] that's success to me [54:02] great answer this has been great to have [54:04] you on and to introduce you to our [54:05] listeners [54:06] and uh been a lot of fun thank you [54:07] morgan very much thanks so much for [54:09] having me