An Arizona Farmer on How to Grow Alfalfa in the Middle of the Desert | Odd Lots

亚利桑那农户揭秘沙漠腹地的苜蓿种植之道 | Odd Lots 主持人乔·威森塔尔（Joe Weisenthal）和特蕾西·阿洛威（Tracy Alloway）与特雷弗·贝尔斯（Trevor Bales）展开对话，深入探讨亚利桑那州巴克艾沙漠农业背后的经济学、农艺学以及水资源政治。贝尔斯解释了沙漠恒定的高温与精准激光平地漫灌技术，如何使苜蓿在免受雨水损害的情况下实现每年多达十余次的高品质收成，从而供应高端赛马及乳业市场。针对有关农业用水的普遍批评，他指出亚利桑那州农场的用水量和耕地面积均低于以往几十年，并且充分利用了含盐盆地径流以及经处理的市政污水。贝尔斯还说明，向未开发沙漠无序扩张的城市化蔓延、侵入性柽柳树，以及缺乏监管的干草市场的剧烈波动，所造成的系统性压力远甚于传统家庭农场。 农业用水约占亚利桑那州水资源消耗的75%，这一现状引发了争议；鉴于缺乏有保障的百年地下水供应，该州相关部门近期已暂停在菲尼克斯部分地区审批新的住宅小区。 (0:09) 亚利桑那州的干旱气候宛如一座露天温室，让像特雷弗·贝尔斯这样的农户每年可收割10至12茬苜蓿（每英亩产出9至10吨），且避免了多雨地区常见的雨损及干草自燃问题。 (12:31) 一个标准120天周期的青贮玉米作物需消耗6至7英亩-英尺的水，这大致相当于多年生苜蓿全年多次收割周期的总需水量。 (10:34) 贝尔斯干草农场与牧场（Bales Hay Farm & Ranch）在不使用科罗拉多河或盐河项目（Salt River Project）水源的情况下运营，而是依赖高盐度的吉拉河含水层补给水以及来自菲尼克斯的经处理市政污水，这在法律上限制了该土地种植新鲜蔬果。 (24:04) 由于缺乏公开的期货市场，美国西部苜蓿贸易在2023年遭遇了一场无监管的市场崩盘，几个月内从出口推动的近460美元/吨的高位暴跌至约195美元/吨。 (34:24)

While desert agriculture faces public criticism for consuming roughly 75% of Arizona's water supply amid regional droughts, sixth-generation farmer Trevor Bales contends that desert farming provides unmatched agronomic efficiencies that are increasingly threatened by unconstrained urban and industrial sprawl. Desert Agronomics and Alfalfa Efficiency (5:12) Critics frequently characterize alfalfa as an excessively thirsty desert crop, but Trevor Bales argues that Arizona's climate functions as an open-air greenhouse, yielding 9 to 10 tons per acre across 8 to 12 annual cuttings. In contrast, colder or rain-fed states produce 7 to 8 tons across only 2 to 6 cuttings, resulting in thicker, stemmy hay with reduced leaf-to-stem nutritional ratios. In humid regions, cut hay often rots on wet ground or undergoes internal fermentation that causes barn fires, whereas desert heat allows rapid, uniform curing that preserves protein content. Bales notes that replacing perennial alfalfa with annual silage corn would not resolve regional water scarcity. On his family farm, a single 120-day corn crop consumed between 6 and 7 acre-feet of water—approximately the same quantity needed to cultivate alfalfa year-round. While corn requires seasonal tilling and heavy single-harvest watering, an alfalfa stand continually regenerates for four to five years, serving as a dependable nutritional base for domestic dairy herds and high-performance racehorses. Precision Leveling and Marginal Water Resources (20:30) Modern desert irrigation has shifted far beyond historical furrow trenches. Bales Hay Farm utilizes precision laser-leveling to grade fields with an engineered end-fall slope between two-foot dirt borders. This design allows water to sheet across 120-foot-wide corridors at depths under two inches without pooling, keeping field evaporation at or below 2%. While subsurface drip irrigation offers higher theoretical efficiency, capital costs exceeding $3,000 per acre—driven by petroleum-linked PVC prices—remain an economic barrier. Furthermore, the farm does not draw from the Colorado River or the Salt River Project. Instead, operations rely on shallow, highly saline Gila River basin runoff and treated municipal effluent purchased from Phoenix. Because the water is brackish, food safety regulations prohibit cultivating fresh produce, leaving salt-tolerant forage crops as the only viable agricultural use. Historically, agricultural pumping prevented the low-lying basin from becoming a swamp, though rising municipal interest in inland desalinization now threatens the long-term renewal of those effluent contracts. Urban Sprawl Versus Agricultural Water Rights (27:24) Bales disputes the assertion that agriculture is depleting Arizona's water reserves, emphasizing that state farms operate on fewer total acres with higher efficiency than at historical peaks. He traces regional water infrastructure to early agricultural cooperatives, noting that early farmers mortgaged their land as collateral to finance dam and canal networks like the Salt River Project, which paved the way for subsequent municipal growth. According to Bales, the current water crisis stems from altered planning assumptions. Developers originally offset housing water use by purchasing existing farms and converting their agricultural water rights. Instead, master-planned subdivisions and water-heavy semiconductor manufacturing plants expanded into raw, arid desert where farming never existed. Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway observe that this dynamic raises fundamental policy choices regarding whether desert land should prioritize outward municipal sprawl or retain its position as a high-yield, domestic food-security hub. The Volatile Economics of Unregulated Forage (34:24) Unlike corn, wheat, or soybeans, the alfalfa market lacks a centralized futures exchange, exposing producers to severe market volatility driven by sentiment. Historically, top-grade hay traded below a ceiling of $285 to $300 per ton. However, aggressive buying by West Coast exporters between 2021 and 2022 propelled prices to peaks between $400 and $460 per ton, establishing overly optimistic baseline expectations among domestic growers. When foreign export bidding ceased abruptly in early 2023, regional prices collapsed from roughly $340 per ton down to $195 per ton within two months. Bales emphasizes that without transparent price discovery mechanisms, growers who purchase third-party hay for domestic distribution absorb dramatic inventory write-downs, leaving desert operations exposed to sharp swings in global trade and herd psychology. Arizona's agricultural debate leaves unresolved tensions between state-level economic development and food security. While precision irrigation and desert curing maximize forage quality from non-potable water, expanding highway corridors, new semiconductor fabs, and expiring municipal effluent agreements continue to pressure century-old family operations.

亚利桑那州第六代农场主 Trevor Bales 指出，尽管舆论常批评沙漠农业耗水，但亚利桑那州的苜蓿种植具有极高的资源效率和得天独厚的自然优势；当前的缺水危机并非由农业引起，而是由于城市开发商在无水源的荒漠地区过度扩张以及新兴工业竞争所致。 农业的历史贡献与现代水资源争议 (0:09) 亚利桑那州近期因地下水供应担忧暂停了菲尼克斯部分地区的新住宅开发审批。公众舆论常将矛头指向消耗该州约75%水资源的农业，认为在沙漠中种田极其荒谬。然而，Bales 强调，该州的早期水利基础设施（如盐河项目 SRP）最初是由农民用土地作抵押融资建设的，农业为城市发展奠定了基础。如今，随着半导体制造厂等高耗水工业和城市人口的激增，水资源争夺战愈演愈烈。 苜蓿的农艺优势与沙漠“温室”效应 (5:12) 苜蓿是一种高蛋白饲料，对高品质乳制品和牛肉生产至关重要。得益于亚利桑那州充足的阳光和持续的高温，该州如同一个露天温室，每年可收割 8 到 12 次苜蓿（每25至30天一次），年产量达每英亩 9 至 10 吨。相比之下，寒冷省份每年仅能收割 2 到 3 次。苜蓿作为多年生植物，一次种植可连续生产 4 到 5 年，而玉米等一年生作物每季都需要大量水分和重度耕作。Bales 指出，若将苜蓿替换为玉米，其单季耗水量（6至7英亩-英尺）将等同于苜蓿全年的耗水量，反而会加剧水资源消耗。 精准激光平整与循环废水灌溉 (17:09) 现代沙漠灌溉并非无节制抽水，而是受到灌溉区的严格计量和配额限制。Bales 介绍，其农场采用精准激光平整技术，使土地横向完全水平，纵向设计微小坡度，使水流能以两英寸或更低的深度均匀覆盖整片农田，蒸发损失率仅在 2% 或以下。此外，该农场处于低洼易涝盆地，其水源并非来自科罗拉多河，而是依赖吉拉河谷的浅层咸水地下水以及向菲尼克斯购买的市政处理废水。由于水质含盐量高，该地依法无法种植新鲜蔬菜，因此耐盐的苜蓿成为最理想的作物选择。 城市无序扩张对水资源规则的蚕食 (27:24) 针对农业与城市用水的冲突，Bales 指出，最初的规划承诺是“水权随土地转移”，即开发商收购农田建住宅时，水资源消耗应实现净中性。然而，城市规划者和开发商改变了规则，开始在从未有过农业和天然水源的荒漠深处建造数千套住宅，从而创造了全新的、累加的水资源需求。Bales 质疑，为何半导体厂等高耗水工业要建在沙漠中，而西南地区独特的预测性气候本是全美少数能实现全年高产农业的地区。如果限制本地农业，美国将不得不依赖使用大量化学农药的进口食品。 缺乏期货机制的“野蛮”苜蓿市场 (34:24) 与小麦、玉米或大麦不同，苜蓿市场缺乏公开的期货合约，价格波动剧烈且极易受到市场心理和出口需求的支配。历史上的高品质苜蓿价格天花板约为每吨 285 至 300 美元。但在 2021 至 2022 年间，由于海外出口商的激进采购，价格一度飙升至每吨 400 至 460 美元的历史高点。然而，随着出口商在 2023 年夏季突然撤资，市场在短短两个月内崩溃，价格从春季预期的每吨 330 美元暴跌至约 195 美元，跌幅超过 140 美元。这种剧烈的繁荣与萧条循环凸显了建立苜蓿期货市场的必要性。 本期节目揭示了沙漠农业在面对城市化和工业化浪潮时的复杂处境。虽然舆论倾向于让城市扩张取代农业，但沙漠农业所具备的极高环境可预测性和生产效率是其他多雨地区难以企及的。如何在保障国家食品安全、维护历史水权与支持城市及高科技产业扩张之间取得平衡，仍是亚利桑那州乃至整个美国西部尚未解决的重大课题。

## Background 本期节目由彭博播客（Bloomberg Podcasts）旗下的《Odd Lots》栏目于 2023 年 7 月 17 日在 YouTube 发布。节目简介指出，面对干旱、气候变化和人口激增引发的水资源短缺，亚利桑那州绝大部分水资源并非被居民消耗，而是流向了农业灌溉；针对外界要求沙漠减少农业的呼声，节目邀请了当地农场主 Trevor Bales，深入探讨其家族的百年务农史以及为何干旱沙漠反而是种植苜蓿的绝佳之地。 ## TL;DR 节目围绕亚利桑那州水资源危机与沙漠农业的争议展开，邀请当地第六代农场主 Trevor Bales 现身说法。Trevor 详细梳理了家族自 19 世纪以来的农业变迁，指出当前该州耕地与用水量均处于历史低位，而灌溉效率依托激光平地等技术达到了历史顶峰。他解释称，种植紫花苜蓿是顺应下游乳业和高端赛马市场的纯商业选择，且沙漠极度稳定、干燥炎热的气候赋予了牧草无与伦比的高频割茬与固化品质；同时，他反击了将缺水单纯归咎于农业的论调，揭示了城市盲目扩张改写水权规则、引进外来高耗水树种以及工业芯片厂抢水等制度与结构性矛盾。 ## Atmosphere & style 整期对话在轻松幽默与严谨反思之间保持着极佳的平衡，主持人幽默打趣嘉宾与作物同名（Bales）的巧合，迅速拉近了距离。对话风格务实接地气，嘉宾以一线农耕者的鲜活视角打破了外界对“沙漠种草”的刻板偏见，言辞坦诚且充满商业洞察。从激光平地的几何细节到缺乏期货对冲的现货暴跌，现场节奏跌宕起伏，最终落脚于对城市无序蔓延与粮食安全命脉的深层思辨，给人带来强烈的认知颠覆感。 ## Bulletin - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=0s) 亚利桑那州近期因水资源短缺暂停了凤凰城周边部分新房建设项目审批，引发了对该州约75%用水流向农业这一分配格局的广泛争议。 - [05:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=312s) 得益于沙漠极高气温与充足光照形成的“天然温室”，亚利桑那州苜蓿年收割次数可达8至12茬，显著高于多雨气候州的2至3茬，且风干品质更稳定。 - [27:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1629s) 传统“以地换水”规则遭到行政改写，原本只能随农田买卖平移的水权被批准调拨至毫无农业历史的干旱荒漠，加剧了无序住宅开发与水危机。 - [34:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=2064s) 苜蓿市场由于完全缺乏期货对冲机制，价格波动剧烈如同“狂野西部”，现货价格曾因出口潮冲高至460美元/吨，随后两月内暴跌至195美元/吨。 ## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=0s) 公众将亚利桑那州水危机草率归咎于沙漠农业并呼吁取缔，忽略了农耕早期奠定水利基建的历史渊源与独特的生产效率。 - [07:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=455s) 凤凰城早期关键的盐河项目（SRP）等大型水利灌溉系统最初由农业农户以土地和自有资金担保建设，城市扩张如今反噬农业用水。 - [09:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=568s) 农户种植结构由棉花转向苜蓿完全受全球市场驱动：中国棉花进口配额收紧，而本地蓬勃发展的乳品养殖业急需高蛋白饲料。 - [10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=634s) 单季玉米与全年生长苜蓿的总耗水量接近（约6至7英亩-英尺），且多年生的苜蓿一次播种可连续收割4至5年，土地利用综合效率更高。 - [12:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=724s) 多雨地区的旱作农业因潮湿常导致苜蓿收割后受潮霉变甚至发生干草自燃，亚利桑那州的干旱气候反倒提供了无霉变、高叶片留存率的完美晾晒环境。 - [15:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=918s) 饲草市场存在极端分层：高价值赛马注重外观与蛋白，产奶奶牛极度挑剔化验指标与实际饲用价值，肉牛则对品质相对宽容。 - [17:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1029s) 现代农场普及激光平地技术消除横向坡度，配合两英尺高地埂以2英寸浅水层均匀推移漫灌，测算蒸发损失通常在2%或以下。 - [20:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1230s) 地下滴灌（SDI）因完全采用石油基管材，铺设成本飙升至每英亩3000美元以上，巨额资本开支限制了其在大规模耕地中的普及。 - [24:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1473s) Bales农场地处“涝区”，常年使用高盐度浅层地下水及凤凰城污水处理水，按法规本就无法种植食用蔬果，只能种植苜蓿等牧草。 - [24:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1473s) 外来入侵物种怪柳在吉拉河流域疯狂蔓延大量争夺河道水源，但因涉及野生动植物保护争议，清理行动屡屡受阻。 - [32:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1946s) 亚利桑那州现阶段农业总耕地面积处于历史低位，灌溉用水效率处于历史顶峰，真正的水压力来自城市无休止的蔓延与芯片等重工业建设。 - [32:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1946s) 如果剥夺加州中央谷地和亚利桑那州的农业供水，美国生鲜与饲料供应链将高度依赖海外进口，面临严重的食品安全与主权风险。 - [38:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=2292s) 沙漠农业的核心竞争优势在于极高的气候确定性与可预测性，相较受暴雨和洪涝困扰的中西部，能实现稳定的全年全天候反季节生产。 - [40:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=2409s) 解决水资源争端不应单向要求农业退场，社会也可以选择遏制凤凰城的无限蔓延，或将高耗水的晶圆厂布局在水资源更充沛的地区。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=0s) 亚利桑那水资源争议与沙漠农业的悖论 节目开场，主持人 Joe Weisenthal 与 Tracy Alloway 回顾了此前与土地经纪人 Chase Emerson 录制的那期节目。当时他们讨论了亚利桑那州的土地开发，即将未开垦土地或农田出售给房屋建筑商。然而，水资源的可持续性问题如今正成为焦点。最近爆出的一条重磅新闻显示，由于对水资源供应的担忧，亚利桑那州暂停了凤凰城（Phoenix）部分地区的新建住宅审批。 这引发了强烈的戏剧性冲突：一方面，亚利桑那州常年处于繁荣状态，人口大量涌入、土地不断扩张、半导体制造等重工业基地如雨后春笋般拔地而起；但另一方面，所有这些扩张都离不开水。公众的典型思维是：发现水资源极度匮乏后，一查数据竟然发现该州 75% 的用水都消耗在农业上，随即震惊地质问为何要在沙漠里种庄稼，并草率得出“只要停止在沙漠搞农业问题就解决了”的结论。但两位主持人指出，现实远比这种五秒钟得出的结论复杂得多。亚利桑那的农业是如何发展起来的？为什么要在极度干旱的土地上种植耗水严重的作物？为此，节目邀请到了最完美的对谈嘉宾——亚利桑那州第六代农场主 Trevor Bales。 - 亚利桑那州近期因水资源供应短缺，叫停了凤凰城周边部分新房建设项目。 - 亚利桑那州约 75% 的水资源消耗来自农业灌溉。 - 两位主持人强调，简单将水危机归咎于沙漠农业并提议直接取缔，忽略了复杂的历史与产业生态。 ### [03:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=180s) 贝尔斯家族的百年拓荒史与灌溉渠建设 Trevor Bales 在亚利桑那州西南部的巴克艾（Buckeye）经营着家族的 Bales Hay Farm & Ranch 农场。Joe 幽默地打趣其姓氏“Bales”（意为草捆）简直像是虚构的名字（决定性姓名学，nominative determinism），Trevor 笑着回应家族绝对没有为了种草而改名，事实上在打包苜蓿草捆之前，家族就在打包棉花捆（bales of cotton）了。 Trevor 回溯了其家族横跨 120 多年的农业轨迹。19 世纪初家族迁徙至此，最初定居拓荒（Homestead）的家族姓氏是 Belote。他们于 1891 年正式获得土地所有权，彼时亚利桑那甚至还没有建州。家族从放牛牧业（cattle ranching）起家，随后发展出“农牧结合”，再进一步建立起由农场供给饲料的育肥场（feedlot），最终演变成纯粹的种植农场。Trevor 的曾曾曾祖父育有大约 14 个孩子，土地经过数代分割与传承，如今农场依然保有着 1,000 英亩（约 404 公顷）的土地，这在几代人的遗产继承中极为罕见。他的曾曾曾祖父当年还亲身参与修建了当地如今仍在运转的农田灌溉水渠网络（canal district）；家族的一枚牛只烙印（cattle brand）历史在全州排在前四百几十位之列。后来，他的曾祖父 Wallace Bales 迎娶了 Alberta Belote，Wallace 与儿子 Steve（即 Trevor 的祖父）买下了这片土地，正式将其更名为 Bales 农场。 - 家族于 1820 年代进入亚利桑那，1891 年正式拓荒定居（早于亚利桑那 1912 年建州）。 - 家族经营模式演变：放牛牧场 $\rightarrow$ 农牧兼营 $\rightarrow$ 农场+育肥场 $\rightarrow$ 现代化种植农场。 - 农场目前占地 1,000 英亩，祖辈曾亲身参与当地灌溉渠系统的建设。 ### [05:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=312s) 苜蓿的作物特性与“温室效应”般的沙漠高产 对于大众常将苜蓿联想为沙拉冷盘里的装饰豆芽（alfalfa sprouts），Trevor 澄清了苜蓿（Alfalfa）在现代畜牧农业中举足轻重的饲料地位。苜蓿是一种极高品质的饲草（forage），具有无与伦比的相对饲用价值（relative feed value）与极高的蛋白质含量，是产出高品质牛奶与高品质牛肉不可或缺的优质饲料。 Trevor 强调，苜蓿在亚利桑那表现出极为特殊的抗逆性与高产性。得益于该地极高的热量和气温，当地环境就像一个巨型天然“温室”。在亚利桑那，他们每年可以收割 8 到 12 茬苜蓿草；播种一次后，草场可以连续稳定收割 4 到 5 年。而在美国其他气候温和但生长季短的州，农户每年只能收割 2 到 3 茬，草场虽能保留 6 到 8 年，但年均产出效率完全无法相提并论。正因为苜蓿在田里留存生长时间长，往往被外界扣上“高耗水作物”的恶名，但 Trevor 辩驳道： > “A lot is being left out that crop stays in it's a very efficient crop when you look at all the work that goes into it we plant it and we leave it in for four to five years so it is producing great feed quality for cattle horses milk cows beef cows for five years no other crop can do that.” > —— Trevor Bales 与玉米等播种一次、耗费巨量水肥却只能收割一次的青贮作物（silage）相比，苜蓿作为多年生植物（perennial）的综合利用效率其实极高。农场在苜蓿种植到第 4 或第 5 年时，会观察到产量开始自然衰减，此时他们会将草皮翻耕清理，施入牛粪等有机肥改良土壤，并轮作其他作物以维持地力。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 亚利桑那州苜蓿多年生轮作周期 accDescr: 图表展示了亚利桑那州苜蓿从单次播种到多年高频收割，再到产量衰退后土壤改良轮作的完整生命周期。 subgraph Growth["高产收割期（4-5年周期）"] A["一次播种"] --> B["亚利桑那天然温室气候催生"] B --> C["年均高频收割 8-12 茬"] C --> D["供应高蛋白饲料（奶牛/肉牛/马匹）"] end subgraph Rotation["翻更改良期"] D -->|"第4-5年产出下降"| E["草皮深翻拔除"] E --> F["施入动物粪肥培肥地力"] F --> G["轮作其他作物"] G -->|"地力恢复"| A end ``` ### [07:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=455s) 亚利桑那的“5C”传统与水资源的历史契约 面对“为何不在雨水充沛的地区种植苜蓿”的质疑，Trevor 指出亚利桑那的气候拥有独一无二的光热优势，非其他多雨低温地区可比。他提到了亚利桑那建州立本著名的“5C”经济支柱：铜（Copper）、牛（Cattle）、柑橘（Citrus）、气候（Climate）与棉花（Cotton）。正是在这种得天独厚的气候支持下，亚利桑那不仅出产全球最优质的皮马棉，还能产出全球品质顶尖的苜蓿、小麦、大麦与玉米。 Trevor 进一步从历史脉络反击了农业与城市用水的道德指责。他指出，农业用水与水资源短缺在过去从来都不是争议话题，直到凤凰城人口爆炸、一跃成为全美第五或第六大都市，水资源才成为风口浪尖的焦点。从历史事实上看，正是农业出资铺设并资助了亚利桑那最早的大型水利灌溉网络。例如凤凰城著名的盐河项目（Salt River Project, SRP），当年正是因为城市无力独自承担建设资金，由当地农户以土地和真金白银投资并担保建成了庞大的输水系统；而如今，享受这些先期水利红利的城市扩张者反过来指责农民浪费水资源。 - 亚利桑那传统“5C”经济象征：Copper（铜）、Cattle（牛）、Citrus（柑橘）、Climate（气候）、Cotton（棉花）。 - 历史资金流向：凤凰城当地重要的水利基础设施（如 Salt River Project, SRP）最早由农业农户垫资建设，城市如今全面受惠于这套体系。 ### [09:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=568s) 市场供需驱动的种植结构转变：从棉花到奶牛牧草 针对农场主青睐苜蓿的原因，Tracy 提出疑问：农户选择苜蓿是否单纯因为其环境耐受度高、收成稳定可靠？Trevor 解释称，农业本质上与其他工业一样，完全是由市场供求关系决定的： > “Cotton used to be the demand Citrus used to be the demand and unfortunately the demand with the mills in China and China's rules about importing cotton cotton is no longer the demand so they go to what is the big demand which right now there are a lot of dairies around and dairies need a lot of protein to make high quality milk which we actually ship all over the world from this area and Alfalfa is the most efficient way to make high quality milk.” > —— Trevor Bales 过去亚利桑那大量种植高附加值的棉花和柑橘，但随着中国棉纺织厂的需求转变以及中国棉花进口配额与贸易政策的收紧，海外对本地原棉的需求萎缩。与此同时，美国西南部及亚利桑那本地涌现了庞大的乳品加工与奶牛养殖产业（dairies）。奶牛产出顶级牛奶离不开高蛋白饲草，而当地生产的乳制品行销全球。为了迎合这一强劲需求，农户自然而然地将土地转产苜蓿。Trevor 补充指出，苜蓿是以水换取高品质乳蛋白最有效率的方式，如果农户为了满足奶牛饲料需求而全部改种极度耗水的大田玉米，本地水资源早就彻底崩溃见底了。 ### [10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=634s) 苜蓿与玉米的用水效率与能量回报对比 在探讨水资源利用时，关于“在干旱的亚利桑那州种植苜蓿是否合理”的讨论，常会引向是否应改种玉米或大豆等作物的计算。Joe Weisenthal 提出，无论是种苜蓿还是玉米，本质上都是投入一定的水和劳动力，产出一定量的饲料供奶牛或肉牛食用，最终转化为牛奶或牛肉。如果将亚利桑那州的高耗水苜蓿替换为玉米，账面上究竟如何体现？ Trevor Bales 解释称，尽管他的祖父和父亲过去曾为自家的饲养场种植大量玉米，但他自己接管后已很少种植。玉米的单季生长周期虽然很短（约 120 天），但其消耗的水量几乎相当于亚利桑那州全年生长苜蓿的总用水量。以水利行业通用的“英亩-英尺”（acre-feet）衡量，两者大约都需要 6 到 7 英亩-英尺的水。不过，他也客观地承认，自己并非动物营养学家或乳业市场专家，因此无法准确断言在一英亩土地上，单次收获的玉米所提供的能量与全年多次收割的苜蓿相比究竟孰优孰劣。 - 玉米生长周期约为 120 天，该生长期的耗水量约为 6 至 7 英亩-英尺。 - 亚利桑那州的苜蓿全年生长周期的总耗水量同样约为 6 至 7 英亩-英尺。 - 关于作物的能量转换价值，Trevor Bales 坦承：“在一英亩土地上，单季玉米收获所产生的能量与苜蓿相比到底如何，那一部分我并不了解，我完全没有深入涉足乳业市场。” --- ### [12:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=724s) 气候禀赋与草质优劣：多次割茬与干燥固化 谈及亚利桑那州苜蓿在全美市场中的竞争力，Trevor Bales 指出核心优势在于“品质”，而非单纯的年总产量。亚利桑那州依托干燥炎热的沙漠气候，每年能实现 10 到 12 次收割，年均亩产为 9 至 10 吨（每英亩）。相比之下，美国其他降雨较多的州年均产量虽能达到 7 至 8 吨，但往往仅靠 3 到 5 次割茬完成。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 苜蓿种植模式对比：亚利桑那州与降雨充沛地区 accDescr: 对比亚利桑那州沙漠频繁割茬与多雨地区低频大割茬在产量、干燥过程及最终草质上的差异。 subgraph AZ["亚利桑那州（沙漠灌溉模式）"] A1["每 25-30 天收割一次（全年 10-12 茬）"] --> A2["单茬草层薄、茎秆细、叶片完整"] A2 --> A3["干燥固化快（单面充分晒干，极少翻草）"] A3 --> A4["高蛋白、色泽青绿、无霉变风险"] end subgraph Rain["降雨充沛地区（传统旱作模式）"] B1["收割次数少（全年 4-6 茬，单茬达 2-3 吨）"] --> B2["草层厚重、茎秆粗硬、品质下降"] B2 --> B3["需多次翻晒（易遇雨受潮、发酵发霉）"] B3 --> B4["叶片脱落多、饲用价值降低、有干草自燃隐患"] end ``` 割茬间隔过长会导致单茬植株过高过厚（单茬产量可达 2 至 3 吨），造成茎秆粗硬粗劣，而且在田间极难晒干。干草打捆如果残留水分过多，内部在巨大压力下发酵积热，甚至会引发干草火灾（hay fire）。在气候多雨的各州，农户收割后草层贴地的一侧无法见光，必须机械翻动两到三次；一旦遭遇阵雨，整块地的草料就会反复受潮霉变。而在亚利桑那州，农场每隔 25 至 30 天割一次草，草层细薄，干燥固化迅速，叶片（营养最集中的部位）保存完好且颜色鲜绿。 全国性极端气候频发时，亚利桑那州发挥了关键的缓冲作用。Trevor Bales 强调：“全美很大一部分地区依赖于所谓的‘旱作农业’，全靠降雨；当全国发生干旱时，亚利桑那填补了这一缺口；而当降雨过多时——比如某些年份爱达荷州或得克萨斯州雨水多到收割机根本无法进地——亚利桑那同样填补了那个缺口。” --- ### [15:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=918s) 饲料分级：赛马、奶牛与肉牛对品质的极端分歧 针对 Tracy Alloway 提出的疑问——“奶牛真的在乎草料的颜色和成色吗？”，Trevor Bales 阐述了高端草料市场极其精细的客户分层。他自己的农场主打高净值马匹饲料市场，客户涵盖参加肯塔基德比（Kentucky Derby）的顶级赛马、乘坐私人飞机往返佛罗里达与海外进行配种和比赛的名贵马，以及竞技绕桶马（barrel racing horses）和套绳马。对于这类高强度运动马匹而言，苜蓿的高蛋白含量与外观成色是硬性指标。 在养牛产业内部，对草料品质的容忍度也截然不同： 1. **产奶奶牛（Milk Cows）**：极为挑剔化验指标与实际饲用价值（feed value）。草料放置时间越长或受过雨淋，营养价值便断崖式下跌，这会直接降低产奶量与奶质。 2. **育肥肉牛（Beef Cattle）**：对品质相对宽容，等级稍低或受雨淋失色的草料仍可用于育肥。 3. **宠物马（Pet Horses）**：作为景观宠物饲养的马匹对蛋白无苛刻要求，普通草料即可满足日常需求。 Trevor Bales 总结道：“因此，对于养马的人来说，视觉品质极为重要；而对于奶牛来说，化验品质极为重要；至于肉牛，就没有那么关键了。” --- ### [17:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1029s) 漫灌几何学：吉拉河古渠系与激光平地技术 当被问及在沙漠中究竟如何引水灌溉时，Trevor Bales 详细拆解了其农场的输水机制。亚利桑那州现在的农业耕地面积处于历史低位，而灌溉效率却达到历史最高点。他的农场地处吉拉河（Gila River）流域，早期的拓荒先辈在缺乏 GPS 技术的条件下，顺应山谷脊线的高程，开凿出引水总渠，为整个水利灌区（Irrigation District）供水。 在制度监管上，农业用水受到极其严密的度量监控，绝非外界想象的随意抽水。农户需根据种植计划提前向水利区预约特定时段与水量，一旦超额就会被立即切断水源。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 农场灌溉水流与土地平整示意图 accDescr: 展示从吉拉河干渠到分水侧沟，再经由激光平地条田实现均匀重力漫灌的流向。 A["吉拉河总干渠 (Main Canal)"] --> B["水利区分水侧沟 (Lateral Ditch)"] B --> C["农场专属进水渠 (Farm Ditch)"] C --> D["激光平整条田 (120英尺宽 x 0.25英里长)"] D --> E["精确坡降重力漫灌 (均流湿润根系)"] ``` 在田间操作层面，农场全面普及了激光平地技术（laser leveling）： - **条田化分割**：100 英亩的大田被严格划分为宽 120 英尺、长四分之一英里的多个长条作业单元。 - **几何微坡降**：地块横向绝对水平，纵向保持微小而精准的平缓坡度（fall）。 - **均流漫灌**：进水闸门开启后，水流如水幕般横向均匀推移，杜绝了凹地积水发霉、高地缺水旱死的现象。 提及更先进的节水技术，Trevor Bales 介绍了目前在亚利桑那州逐步推广的地下滴灌系统（Subsurface Drip Irrigation, SDI）。该系统将管道完全埋设于地下，直接对作物根部供水，从而杜绝地表蒸发，但初始安装成本高昂。他补充道，公众往往高估漫灌的蒸发损耗，相关科学测算显示其蒸发损失通常在 2% 或以下。对此，Tracy Alloway 幽默地打趣称，她自家两英亩半的花园地下水管到处漏水，或许无意中已经率先建成了“地下渗灌系统”。 ### [20:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1230s) 灌溉技术的演进：从“搓衣板”沟灌到激光平整 谈到农业用水技术的变迁，Trevor Bales 详细对比了祖辈与现代耕作方式的差异。过去农场采用的是传统的沟灌（furrow irrigation），整个田地被犁成类似于老式搓衣板（washboard）的垄沟。如果只是在相对平坦的土地上直接放水，水流必然遵循阻力最小的路径，径直流过某一低洼处，导致其他大部分地面依然干旱。老一辈农民为了让水能够覆盖整片土地，费尽心思开凿垄沟，让水留在沟底并渗入两侧土壤。然而这种方式不仅耗水效率低、作业颠簸，对农具的损耗也极大；当时既没有 GPS 定位，也没有现代测量工具，笨重的开沟机很难犁出笔直的沟槽。即便如此，Trevor 依然对前辈们因地制宜的智慧表达了敬意。 现代亚利桑那州和加利福尼亚州的农业则转向了独特的“地埂系统”（border system）。农民通过沿田块上下走向筑起约两英尺高、由激光甚至 GPS 精准平整的泥土土埂（border），将农田分割成一条条规整的条带。每个地块自然存在横向坡度（sidefall），激光平整技术的最大意义就在于消除两条地埂之间的微小起伏，让水流在宽约 60 英尺到 120 英尺（取决于田块坡度）、长达四分之一英里的条块内，以大约两英寸或更浅的深度像一面水镜般均匀向下推进。当水流推至田地末端时关闭闸门，水分恰好就地渗透完毕，只要值守灌溉的工人不打瞌睡，整个过程极为高效顺畅。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 灌溉技术演进对比 accDescr: 对比传统沟灌与现代激光平整条田灌溉在水流控制上的差异 subgraph Old["传统沟灌 (Furrows)"] A["地表自然高低不平"] --> B["犁出类似搓衣板的垄沟"] B --> C["水流沿低处集中冲刷，容易浪费且分布不均"] end subgraph Modern["现代激光平整地埂系统 (Laser Borders)"] D["激光/GPS 消除横向坡度"] --> E["构筑两英尺高地埂条田 (宽60-120英尺)"] E --> F["2英寸浅水层整齐均匀推进，水到田头即止"] end ``` 关于最节水的地下滴灌（subsurface drip irrigation），Trevor 指出其最大的障碍是经济成本。地下滴灌管道和零部件全部是石油基材料（如 PVC 管），造价直接与油价挂钩。在油价便宜的时期，每英亩铺设成本约为 2,000 美元，而目前已飙升至每英亩 3,000 美元甚至更高。对于动辄拥有 4,000 英亩耕地的大型农场而言，全部升级地下滴灌所需的资金是天文数字，因此激光平整的大水漫灌依然是当前兼顾成本与效率的最佳选择。 - 垄沟耕作（Furrows）：利用起伏结构强迫水流分散，但缺乏精准导引且极为损耗设备。 - 激光平整地埂（Laser Leveling & Borders）：两条地埂之间宽度通常为 60 至 120 英尺以上，形成长达四分之一英里的平整通道。 - 水层深度：激光平整后，灌溉水能够以深约 2 英寸的均匀薄层推进至田底并自然下渗。 - 地下滴灌成本：每英亩造价已从历史上的约 2,000 美元上涨至 3,000 美元以上，受石油衍生品价格波动影响巨大。 --- ### [24:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1473s) 盐分极高的“排水洼地”与外来物种怪柳的争水危机 当被问及眼下水资源短缺的压力如何具体影响农场经营时，Trevor 透露，自己家族农场的用水情况十分特殊。他们所在的区域被称为“涝区”（waterlogged area），这里的地下水盐度极高，百年来他们使用的主要是来自凤凰城（Phoenix）污水处理厂处理后的水。由于水质极咸且来自城市污水，根据法规，他的农场甚至被禁止种植食用果蔬（produce），只能用于种植紫花苜蓿等饲料作物。该农场既不依赖科罗拉多河（Colorado River）的水权，也不属于盐河工程（Salt River Project），其地下水源自亚利桑那州东部的降雨沿盐河与希拉河（Gila River）下渗补充的浅层含水层。 在过去很长一段时间里，农场所在地的水既咸又脏，其他行业避之不及。这里的地下水位极浅，部分地方往下挖三到四英尺就是水，地面终年微湿，如果不持续抽水耕作，整片区域几乎会退化成湿地沼泽。凤凰城当年尚未扩张为大都市时，极为乐见农民掏钱买下这些处理水并协助抽干高水位。然而随着技术进步，情况发生了扭转：现代污水处理和海水淡化技术（desalinization）使得咸水净化变得有利可图，外界开始盯上这片原本被嫌弃的地下水源。 与此同时，希拉河流域还遭受了外来入侵物种怪柳（salt cedar tree，又称柽柳）的严重破坏。几十年前引进的这种树木耗水量惊人，已彻底侵占了希拉河道与周边荒漠，导致如今河道水流极少能顺畅流下。州参议员西娜·科尔（Sina Kerr）等人一直在呼吁清理这种高耗水植物，但由于环保人士以保护猫头鹰、蝴蝶等野生动植物栖息地为由介入，清理行动面临重重阻力。 --- ### [27:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1629s) 城市扩张与被改写的“以地换水”水权规则 随着凤凰城及其周边卫星城飞速扩张，用水矛盾终于浮上台面。Trevor 坦言： > “Yes, somewhere it is gonna have to give.”（是的，迟早有某个地方必须做出妥协。） 由于城市水处理技术日益精湛，加上与农场签订的百年供水协议即将陆续到期，城市管理者正在盘算从农民手中回购这些水源，这让农户们深感担忧。 Trevor 进一步揭露了亚利桑那州水资源危机的制度根源：过去该州有着健全的法律，严格限制水资源的跨区域调配，基本原则是“建房必须跟水走”。最初的设计构想是：当住宅开发商或制造业向农民购买农田时，农业用水指标平移转化为居民生活用水（即“以地换水”），总耗水量维持在一个平衡的盘子内。但随后，远离农场一线的决策层改写了规则——官僚们为了追求在风景优美的山麓或交通便利的高速公路沿线招商引资，通过行政手段批准将水权调拨到原本没有任何农业历史、极度干旱的荒漠地带。在那些本应不具备承载力的地方，数以千计的居民住宅区拔地而起，彻底打破了当年的水权承诺与平衡。 > “I mean if I said the farmers didn't change a rule we've been here farming for over 100 we're farming less Acres than ever but so there were some things that kind of change that'd be interesting to get the full story on that because like yeah there's big um housing developments up in these areas that are very arid there's no water there's no farming that ever happened there they just boom let's throw in these several thousand homes and neighborhoods and use a whole bunch of water.”（我的意思是，农民们根本没有去修改规则，我们在这里耕作了一百多年，耕种面积甚至比以前更少；是其他一些东西变了，如果能知道整件事的完整内幕一定会很有意思。因为确实有大型住宅开发项目直接插进了极度干旱的荒原，那里从来没有水，也从没搞过农业，但他们就这样砰地一下建起了好几千套房子和整个社区，消耗了海量的水。） 针对主持人提出“在何种条件下会考虑放弃种植紫花苜蓿”的尖锐提问，Trevor 直言这与其他行业别无二致，本质上是一个关于盈利边界和市场供给的经济学选择。 ### [30:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1831s) 市场导向的种植决策与郊区土地开发的经济账 Trevor Bales 强调，农民种植什么完全是由市场驱动的，就像汽车制造一样。“只要我们有水和土壤，市场需要什么我就能种什么。我种苜蓿并不是因为我想种，而是因为市场需要，”他直言，“归根结底都是为了付账单，什么能帮我付账单我就种什么，现在能付账单的就是苜蓿。”过去人们常说“棉花是王”（cotton is king），如果哪天棉纺厂和市场重新迫切需要棉花，农民就会毫不犹豫地改种棉花。Joe Weisenthal 此时注意到 Trevor 农场所在的道路就叫 Bales Road，正是以他们家族的名字命名的。 随后，Joe 询问亚利桑那州是否有房屋建筑商（homebuilders）找上门来收购他们的土地。毕竟亚利桑那州大量新建住宅区曾经都是农田，当地是否也会出现建筑商开出的支票金额远超继续种植苜蓿收益的情况。Trevor 解释说，目前他们的农场距离州际高速公路大约有 10 英里，这个距离在现阶段阻挡了开发商的脚步。然而，当地已经规划了一条分流高速公路（reliever freeway），“一切都与交通息息相关”。在亚利桑那州，所有的城市扩张基本上都紧紧围绕着 10 号州际公路（I-10）、17 号州际公路（I-17）以及 202 环线和 101 环线展开。如果农场紧邻高速公路，建筑商肯定早就上门敲门了。 - 农作物的轮作与选择完全依循市场供需信号，而非农民个人偏好。 - 亚利桑那州的土地开发价值与高速公路网络的距离高度正相关。 - 农场目前距离主干高速约 8 至 10 英里，暂时避开了大规模郊区住宅开发的直接吞噬。 --- ### [32:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1946s) 城市扩张与农业用水：被误解的加利福尼亚危机 在谈到亚利桑那州乃至整个美西的水资源争论时，Trevor 提出了一个他认为大众普遍忽略的核心大局观：“水从来都不是问题，直到城市变得像现在这么庞大为止。”他指出，亚利桑那州农业现在的耕作面积是历史上最少的，使用的水资源也是历史上最少的，而灌溉效率则是历史上最高的。与此同时，各大企业却选择在水资源紧缺的沙漠地带建造耗水量巨大的芯片制造厂。Trevor 质疑芯片厂完全可以建在别处，而他们选择在亚利桑那州务农，是因为这里是全美极少数能实现全年无休耕作且产出极高品质作物的地区之一。 更让 Trevor 感到担忧的并不是亚利桑那州，而是加利福尼亚州的中央谷地（Central Valley）。“如果加州失去水资源，我们所有能想到的农产品都将不得不从国外进口，那些地方为了把蔬菜水果卖给美国，会喷洒能杀死所有虫子的各种恶心化学药剂，只因为我们剥夺了加州的水资源和农业。”虽然他深爱亚利桑那州，但从国家粮食安全的角度来看，加州农田可能失去供水的前景才是真正让人不寒而栗的危机。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 农田供水短缺对美国食品供应链的连锁冲击 accDescr: 展示加州中央谷地因缺水导致农业崩溃后对全国粮食安全引发的恶性循环 subgraph 资源争夺 CitySprawl["城市人口与芯片工业扩张"] --> WaterShift["农业供水配额遭到挤压与削减"] end subgraph 农业受挫 WaterShift --> FallLand["加州中央谷地与西南农田被迫休耕弃耕"] FallLand --> SupplyCollapse["本土牛奶、饲料与生鲜蔬果产能暴跌"] end subgraph 外部依赖 SupplyCollapse --> FoodImport["高度依赖海外农产品进口"] FoodImport --> SafetyRisk["面临海外农药滥用与食品安全监管风险"] end ``` - 亚利桑那州农业现阶段的耗水量与耕地总面积均处于历史较低水平，单位产出的灌溉用水效率处于历史顶峰。 - 全美除亚利桑那州和加州中央谷地外，几乎没有其他地区具备全年连续种植顶级品质牧草和果蔬的气候条件。 - 许多中西部适宜种植的谷物无法在此生长，但沙漠灌溉农业提供了高附加值作物不可替代的供应窗口。 --- ### [34:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=2064s) 缺乏期货机制的苜蓿“狂野西部”与暴跌行情 正当主持人准备结束采访时，Trevor 惊讶地追问为何没聊苜蓿市场本身，因为这正是他认为最具戏剧性的部分。与棉花、小麦、大麦、玉米或肉牛不同，苜蓿完全没有成熟的期货市场（Futures Market）可供对冲或定价，整个现货交易如同“狂野西部”，其波动剧烈程度堪比股票市场。最近两三年，苜蓿价格上演了一场惊心动魄的过山车： 过去每吨 300 美元曾是行业难以企及的绝对高价，当价格达到 285 美元时农户就会惊叹不已。然而，前两年国际出口商突然在全美西海岸（华盛顿州、俄勒冈州、加州和亚利桑那州）大举扫货，将价格推升至每吨 400 美元乃至 460 美元的历史高位。进入 2023 年后，出口商突然停止采购，但市场各方仍抱有价格会维持高位的盲目预期。Trevor 自己的业务需要收购其他农户的牧草销往全美各地，在 3、4 月份收割季时，大家依然认为行情在 330 至 340 美元，他也以此价格收草；然而仅仅过了两个月，由于出口停滞和预期幻灭，采购价格暴跌至 195 美元左右。面对数月内每吨下跌超过 100 美元的崩盘，Trevor 感叹这完全是一场由心理预期主导的博弈。 - 传统大宗农产品有透明的公开交易与期货合约，苜蓿市场则完全缺乏期货市场机制。 - 历史正常高价区间约为 285–300 美元/吨。 - 出口狂潮推动价格在一年内暴涨至 400–460 美元/吨的历史高位。 - 预期落空与出口商离场后，收购价在短短两个月内从 340 美元/吨暴跌至 195 美元/吨。 --- ### [38:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=2292s) 主持人复盘：干旱沙漠的可预测性与高端马匹经济 在采访结束后的双人复盘中，Joe Weisenthal 和 Tracy Alloway 探讨了访谈带来的认知颠覆。Joe 首先提到现代农业中精准激光平地技术对节水灌溉的巨大帮助，Tracy 随即打趣说自己的丈夫最近也买了一台激光测平仪，整天在家里用来量挂画和平整露台坡度，用得不亦乐乎。在深入思考沙漠种草的逻辑时，Tracy 指出，人们常直觉地认为在沙漠种苜蓿荒谬绝伦，但 Trevor 解释了阳光和干燥环境对于牧草风干晾晒（curing）极为有利，这揭示了生产端独特的物理优势。 此外，两人都对大量高品质苜蓿流向高端赛马/休闲马（fancy horses）感到新奇。Tracy 敏锐地指出，在各类气候变化与碳排放的声讨中，公众几乎把所有矛头都对准了肉牛和奶牛，而高昂消费维持的马匹产业似乎完全逃避了气候审查。最后，Joe 总结了这场对话中最具启发的宏观视角：中西部等湿润地区虽然降水丰富，但往往面临不可控的干旱或洪涝灾害；相反，沙漠最大的优势在于极端的高度一致性与可预测性（predictability）。农民清楚知晓天气状况，只要有了灌溉水源，在绝大多数生产指标上，亚利桑那州的反季节与全年农作效率其实极高。 - 干燥炎热的气候条件为苜蓿提供了近乎完美的原地风干与打捆环境，大幅降低了因降雨霉变受损的风险。 - 赛马等高价值终端市场为高昂的沙漠种植成本提供了坚实的支付意愿，但尚未像肉牛行业那样受到严格的环保减排审视。 - 沙漠农业的隐秘优势在于消除了暴雨与洪水的不确定性，以水资源调配换取了生产周期的绝对可预测性。 ### [40:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=2409s) 城市扩张与农业命脉的抉择 在节目的尾声，主持人讨论了亚利桑那州所面临的水资源冲突与发展权衡。外界普遍的看法是：在沙漠中发展农业在过去很长一段时间内或许合理，但随着城市的迅速扩张，以及诸如半导体晶圆厂（Fabs）等大型工业项目的建立，当地似乎不可避免地需要做出一些艰难的决断。然而，正如 Trevor Bales 所提出的视角，解决问题的方案并非只有“削减农业”这一条路。人们往往预设“因为所有人都搬来菲尼克斯（Phoenix），所以我们需要减少农业”，但另一种可能的答案是：保留亚利桑那州作为农业重镇的地位，遏制菲尼克斯漫无边际的城市蔓延。 主持人指出，了解农业从业者的切身观点至关重要，这让人反思城市扩张的盲目性：菲尼克斯真的必须向四面八方无限扩展吗？抑或是像半导体晶圆厂这样的高耗水产业，原本就可以选择落户在其他水资源更充沛的地方。正如主持人总结道：“Like maybe the answer is to keep Arizona an agricultural Powerhouse and not continue to spread Phoenix as far as the eye can see.” - 核心矛盾：城市无限蔓延与新兴半导体产业带来的用水压力，与传统高效农业用地的冲突。 - 逆向反思：不应单方面要求农业让步，也可以选择限制城市扩张或将半导体工厂迁往他处。 ### [40:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=2445s) 尾声与节目结语 在探讨完亚利桑那州水资源与农业的深层矛盾后，主持人 Tracy Alloway 和 Joe Weisenthal 结束了本期播客的对话，并对听众和团队致以感谢。Joe Weisenthal 特别推荐听众去关注嘉宾 Trevor Bales 的社交账号，他在 Instagram 上通过名为 `@baleshay` 的账号发布了大量关于亚利桑那州苜蓿草种植的生动有趣的视频。 随后，两位主持人向听众介绍了 Odd Lots 播客团队的社交平台与衍生内容渠道，鼓励大家继续深入探讨水资源等相关话题。 - 嘉宾信息：Trevor Bales 的 Instagram 账号为 `@baleshay`，分享沙漠苜蓿草农业的实操与见闻。 - 制作团队：节目制作人为 Carmen Rodriguez（Twitter: `@CarmenArmin`）与 Dashel Bennett（Twitter: `@dashbot`）。 - 延伸资源：听众可通过 bloomberg.com/oddlots 查阅往期文字稿、博客以及每周五发布的通讯；亦可加入官方 Discord 社群（discord.gg/oddlots），其中包含专门讨论水资源议题的频道（water channel）。 ## Notable quotes > [32:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1946s) 水从来都不是问题，直到城市变得像现在这么庞大为止。 — Trevor Bales > [15:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=918s) 对于养马的人来说，视觉品质极为重要；而对于奶牛来说，化验品质极为重要；至于肉牛，就没有那么关键了。 — Trevor Bales > [32:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8&t=1946s) 如果加州失去水资源，我们所有能想到的农产品都将不得不从国外进口，那些地方为了把蔬菜水果卖给美国，会喷洒能杀死所有虫子的各种恶心化学药剂，只因为我们剥夺了加州的水资源和农业。 — Trevor Bales ## Mentioned Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, Trevor Bales, Chase Emerson, Bales Hay Farm & Ranch, Wallace Bales, Steve Bales, Alberta Belote, Salt River Project, Sina Kerr, Carmen Rodriguez, Dashel Bennett, Odd Lots, Bloomberg ## Video description Due to a combination of drought, climate change and booming growth, Arizona is facing looming water scarcity. But for all the sprawl and population increase, the overwhelming amount of water used in the state is not consumed by residences, but rather farmers. So naturally, many argue that we should be doing less agriculture in the desert and move the production of cotton, alfalfa and various vegetables towards places with more rain. On this episode, we speak with Trevor Bales, the proprietor of Bales Hay Farm & Ranch in Arizona about his family’s history in the state and why he thinks this dry desert is a great place to grow alfalfa. See omnystudio.com/listener (https://omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information. Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts Check out more Odd Lots: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MuA6M0zkZyy-99-qc87wKV Get the Odd Lots newsletter via https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/oddlots And for all things Odd Lots, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots Visit our other YouTube channels: Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktake #Bloomberg #Podcast #OddLots Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts Follow Bloomberg Podcasts on Twitter: https://twitter.com/podcasts For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8)

[32:26] Trevor Bales: 水从来都不是问题，直到城市变得像现在这么庞大为止。 [15:18] Trevor Bales: 对于养马的人来说，视觉品质极为重要；而对于奶牛来说，化验品质极为重要；至于肉牛，就没有那么关键了。 [32:26] Trevor Bales: 如果加州失去水资源，我们所有能想到的农产品都将不得不从国外进口，那些地方为了把蔬菜水果卖给美国，会喷洒能杀死所有虫子的各种恶心化学药剂，只因为我们剥夺了加州的水资源和农业。

[7:35] Trevor Bales: Water and agriculture were never a hot topic in Arizona until Phoenix got to be fourth, fifth, sixth largest city in the country, right? [40:09] Joe Weisenthal: maybe the answer is to keep Arizona an agricultural powerhouse and not continue to spread Phoenix as far as the eye can see.

[0:00] [Music] [0:09] hello and welcome to another episode of [0:12] the odd Lots podcast I'm Joe weisenthal [0:15] and I'm Tracy Alloway Tracy do you [0:17] remember the episode we did with uh [0:19] Chase Emerson I do about Land [0:21] Development in Arizona right so that was [0:24] we were talking to a land broker someone [0:26] who helped facilitate the sale of sort [0:29] of unused or agricultural land to um [0:31] homeowners or to sort of home builders [0:34] but there's been a lot of talk and we [0:36] touched on it a bit in this episode [0:37] about like the sustainability of water [0:40] usage in Arizona yes in fact there was a [0:43] pretty big headline that came out quite [0:45] recently saying that Arizona was going [0:47] to Halt new home approvals in parts of [0:51] Phoenix because of concerns over water [0:54] availability right and so there's this [0:57] question about like okay Arizona is like [0:59] this boom state right tons of population [1:01] growth tons of land people moving there [1:04] has been booming for years it's booming [1:07] from a industrial standpoint too there's [1:08] all these new semiconductor conductors [1:10] yeah Arizona touches everything for us [1:12] it does and also Arizona Water seems to [1:16] touch everything and I mean this came up [1:18] in the chase Emerson episode but I [1:20] remember I asked someone um from the [1:22] bite Administration about it as well but [1:24] you know why are we building these big [1:27] factories the semiconductor factories [1:29] that use a lot of water in the desert [1:32] why are we developing lots of land in [1:34] the desert why are we farming a bunch of [1:37] water intensive stuff in the desert yeah [1:41] right this is how it goes in people's [1:42] head they're booming in Arizona there's [1:44] water scarcity and then they discover [1:46] that Arizona despite being the desert 75 [1:50] of the water used in Arizona is [1:52] agriculture and they go what that's [1:54] crazy why are we built why are we [1:56] growing food or growing grains or crops [1:58] in the desert and then people say oh [2:00] that's the problem we just need to stop [2:02] growing in the desert and the [2:05] conversation ends there but obviously [2:07] all of these things are like way more [2:08] complicated than like the five seconds [2:10] it takes you to reach that conclusion [2:12] I'm very curious how this became a thing [2:15] like how did agriculture become a big [2:19] part of the Arizona economy and why in [2:22] particular does it seem like we are [2:23] farming water intensive crops in an area [2:26] where water nowadays seems to be a [2:29] concern and maybe that's the key it [2:30] didn't used to be as much of a concern [2:32] and now it is but I am very interested [2:34] in hearing this side of the story I [2:36] think they've always sort of wondered [2:37] like what's the deal with agriculture in [2:39] the middle of the desert anyway we [2:41] literally have the perfect guest because [2:43] as you mentioned it's been going on for [2:45] a long time we have the perfect guest [2:47] we're going to be speaking with Trevor [2:49] Bales he is a sixth generation farmer in [2:52] Arizona he runs Bells hay Farm and Ranch [2:56] which grows Alfalfa he's based in [2:58] Buckeye Arizona in the south West part [3:01] of the state we're going to talk all [3:02] about the history the operations the [3:05] water usage all of these things about [3:07] growing Alfalfa in the desert so uh [3:09] Trevor thank you so much for coming on [3:10] odd Lots hi guys great to be here can I [3:13] ask you a really obnoxious question yeah [3:15] start Bales like some people are gonna [3:18] like this your guest is made up the [3:20] nominative determinants farmer in [3:23] Arizona his last name is Bales like you [3:25] might you cannot be real no who did not [3:28] change her name it's Ben Bales [3:30] before it was bales of alfalfa it was [3:33] bales of cotton so still a bale that is [3:35] a very incredible so sixth generation [3:37] former in Arizona talk to us about like [3:40] the beginning of your family's history I [3:42] guess as a farming family [3:45] my family that Homestead in Arizona [3:47] their last name was actually bloat [3:49] b-e-l-o-a-t the belot family okay and [3:52] they came out here as cattle ranchers [3:54] and the cattle ranching turned into [3:56] farming and cattle and then it turned [3:59] into a feedlot in farming the farm [4:01] supplied the feedlot and then it [4:03] transitioned into only farming now [4:06] that's over a span of 120 plus years but [4:09] that's in a nutshell so they came over [4:11] here oh man my great great great great [4:14] great grandpa I think he had 14 kids or [4:18] something so we currently Farm a [4:19] thousand acres which if you think about [4:21] it we're very lucky to have that many [4:22] acres when it's been split so many [4:25] different times living between children [4:26] and family we're lucky to have that but [4:29] uh they big they came in the 1820s but [4:31] they Homestead in 1891 so before Arizona [4:34] was even a state all right great great [4:36] great grandpa was uh integral in [4:39] building the canal District that we [4:41] currently use for uh irrigating our [4:44] crops so we have an extremely long [4:46] history one of our cattle brands is [4:48] actually in the top one of the first I [4:51] think it's like a 450th or 440 something [4:55] with cattle brand so we've been here a [4:57] very long time have a deep history wow [5:00] in the state and then along the way my [5:02] my group my great grandpa Wallace Bales [5:05] married Alberta belote him and his son [5:07] my grandpa Steve purchased the farm from [5:09] the in-laws and became the Bales Farm [5:12] let me ask a super basic question which [5:16] is you know a lot of people I think they [5:18] hear Alfalfa and if they're not out in [5:20] the country they're thinking about those [5:21] little alfalfa sprouts that you might [5:23] get on your salads or as a garnish or [5:25] something like that but talk to us about [5:27] what Alfalfa actually is and the role [5:31] that it plays in agriculture [5:33] so Alfalfa is a very very unique plant [5:37] it's a forage it has great relative feed [5:40] value Properties or protein properties [5:43] it's very good for making high quality [5:45] milk it's very good for making high [5:46] quality beef what makes it so unique is [5:49] its hardiness especially for what we do [5:51] now this changes across the country [5:52] because Arizona is much like a a [5:56] greenhouse effect I kind of compared to [5:58] because of our temperature we are in the [6:01] field [6:02] um 8 to 12 times a year we're in there [6:04] cutting that Alfalfa now there is no [6:06] other crop other than grass and even [6:08] grass does not have the feed qualities [6:10] of alfalfa has that you can go in there [6:13] and cut multiple times in a year and [6:16] then for several years after that we can [6:19] keep an alfalfa stand in for four to [6:22] five years where other states where [6:24] they're only in there cutting their crop [6:25] two or three times they can leave it in [6:27] six seven eight years but because of [6:30] that because that Alfalfa stays in for [6:32] so long it gets a bad reputation as to [6:35] what you were talking about earlier is [6:36] water people call it a very high [6:38] intensive water use crop well a lot is [6:41] being left out that crop stays in it's a [6:44] very efficient crop when you look at all [6:47] the work that goes into it we plant it [6:49] and we leave it in for four to five [6:51] years so it is producing great feed [6:55] quality for cattle horses milk cows beef [6:58] cows for five years no other crop can do [7:01] that corn you plant it once it takes a [7:03] massive amount of water and then you [7:05] harvest it once so silage it's basically [7:08] a perennial right like it keeps coming [7:10] back [7:12] yes yes that's absolutely correct yes uh [7:14] but it does go down and in value to [7:16] where we do take it out the yields [7:18] aren't as good so after about the four [7:20] or fifth year we'll see the yields will [7:21] go down and we will take the field out [7:24] we'll apply manure to it for uh the [7:27] fertilizer and go through the whole [7:28] process and and usually we'll try to [7:30] have a rotation crop in between it as [7:32] well but just this gets to the key [7:35] question which and I feel like we're [7:36] sort of jumped right to it so people [7:38] looking I'm sorry I knew no no I did [7:40] jump to it quickly no no but this is [7:42] really I think sort of the key of the [7:44] argument which is that you can grow elf [7:47] Alpha elsewhere outside of Arizona but [7:50] the point that you're trying to make is [7:52] that there's something about the [7:54] uniqueness of the Arizona climate so [7:56] setting aside the water issue yeah [7:58] there's something about the Arizona [7:58] climate specifically that gets you [8:01] several turns in a year do you know the [8:03] five C's of Arizona no but I can't wait [8:06] to learn them so okay all right so and [8:08] that back to like the history of [8:10] why are they farming in Arizona yeah [8:12] water water and agriculture was were [8:15] never a Hot Topic in Arizona until [8:17] Phoenix got to be fourth fifth sixth [8:20] largest city in the country right we've [8:22] been farming here for for like I just [8:24] said my family's here in the 1820s doing [8:26] it so the water was never a problem [8:28] until humans came in cities came in [8:32] manufacturing came in farming actually [8:34] paid for a lot of the water that is here [8:37] uh in Phoenix uh Salt River Project SRP [8:40] the city couldn't afford it so the [8:42] farmers came in and they paid for the [8:44] water system and now the city is using [8:46] it but anyways back to the Five Seasons [8:47] because our climate copper cattle Citrus [8:52] and cotton Arizona makes some of the [8:54] best cotton in the world we make the [8:56] best Alfalfa in the world we make some [8:57] of the best wheat and barley and we make [8:59] some of the best corn in the world it's [9:01] because of our climate and so like you [9:03] said Alfalfa can be grown other places [9:05] but the quality is nowhere near the same [9:07] and it can't be grown everywhere that [9:10] not all the climates can grow alfalfa [9:12] [Music] [9:28] so one thing I read and again I'm not a [9:31] farmer so I'm just reading trying to [9:33] read various things on this topic but [9:35] one thing I read was that farmers in [9:37] Arizona like Alfalfa because it's [9:41] reliable and because it grows well in [9:44] that environment provided there's enough [9:47] water around is that the right way of [9:49] thinking about it yeah but that's I mean [9:52] it's any crop right we're just like the [9:54] industry of farming is industry and what [9:57] is supplying what is Demand right well [9:59] cotton used to be the demand Citrus used [10:01] to be the demand and unfortunately the [10:04] demand with the mills in China and [10:06] China's rules about importing cotton [10:08] cotton is no longer the demand so they [10:10] go to what is the big demand which right [10:12] now there are a lot of dairies around [10:14] and dairies need a lot of protein to [10:17] make high quality milk which we actually [10:19] ship all over the world from this area [10:21] and Alfalfa is the most efficient way to [10:24] make high quality milk if they think [10:27] water is a problem now if every farmer [10:28] grew corn for the dairy is Holy Smokes [10:30] there wouldn't uh cotton corn corn man [10:34] corn uses a lot of water so yes yes and [10:36] no what you said yes and no yes we like [10:38] it but for those same reasons any other [10:41] crop is the same thing right so in the [10:43] end whether we're growing Alfalfa [10:45] whether we're growing corn I guess [10:47] whether or growing soy other things like [10:49] there's like a certain math right [10:51] there's a certain amount of water [10:52] there's a certain amount of human labor [10:54] you get a certain amount of feed at the [10:56] end those go to feed cows and then the [10:58] cows either become beef or they become [11:00] uh for milk can you talk a little bit [11:03] further about like okay you say like [11:04] corn that would be much worse if we [11:06] switch to replacing Alfalfa with corn [11:08] like how does the math work out what are [11:10] we talking about we're loss [11:13] and I've never grown corn myself because [11:15] my dad used to grow quite a bit my [11:17] grandfather would for our own feedlot by [11:19] the time I came along we don't grow as [11:21] much but the corn crop in a short like [11:24] 120 day corn uses approximately the same [11:27] amount of water as my whole year uh my [11:30] whole year of the crop of alfalfa which [11:33] is around seven seven acre foot as we [11:35] like to measure it with by acre feet six [11:37] to seven acre feet but now where I don't [11:39] know because you would have to get a um [11:42] a nutritionist is in that same acre of [11:46] ground of soil that one Harvest of corn [11:50] what what energy does it produce versus [11:53] Alfalfa and that I don't know that part [11:56] um just except man I'm just not I'm not [11:58] the dairy market at all I'm not uh let [12:00] me ask you it gets a little let me ask [12:02] you another question let me ask you [12:04] another question then that's sort of [12:05] related so you say like Arizona Alfalfa [12:08] is better than Alfalfa elsewhere how [12:11] much talk us through that a little a [12:13] little bit more what is better about [12:15] growing it in Arizona versus other parts [12:17] of this country because it has grown [12:18] elsewhere in this country so is it the [12:20] quality of the product or is it the [12:23] yields the or the amount of turns that [12:25] you can get in a year from the same [12:27] amount of land and then like to talk us [12:30] through the differences [12:31] it's most of the quality so a lot of [12:34] other states so we average we average [12:36] about nine tons per acre for the year [12:39] depending on the soil type we can get [12:41] nine to ten tons per year now but with [12:44] that's with 10 to 12 cuttings a lot of [12:48] other states they can get seven to eight [12:50] tons per year [12:51] but that's on half the cuttings and so [12:55] each cutting is making a massive amount [12:58] of hay each time well the bigger the [13:01] stand gets the lower the quality gets it [13:03] gets real big it gets real um kind of [13:06] tough the stems get real big and with [13:08] that size what's extremely important [13:11] about Alfalfa for a few reasons one if [13:13] you build with too much moisture if the [13:15] bail it'll start to mold it'll go bad it [13:18] can also I don't know if you've ever [13:19] heard of a hay fire but if it has too [13:21] much moisture and all the pressure in [13:23] that Baler when they're packing the Bale [13:25] and you store it creates heat from the [13:27] moisture inside and the whatever is [13:29] inside the Bale and it'll catch on fire [13:31] so the dry down process the curing [13:34] process is extremely important in a lot [13:37] of the country [13:38] they they don't have the climate we have [13:41] so they're fighting uh a lot more [13:42] weather than we than we fight and so the [13:45] fact that we're able to get it dried [13:46] down and to cure and then also not have [13:49] these massive two two or three ton [13:52] cuttings like when you cut Alfalfa [13:53] that's two tons or more it's so big and [13:56] thick and it's hard to get it to cure [13:58] out well we go in there every 30 days or [14:00] less 25 to 30 days we cut it it's nice [14:03] it's small and it's thinned out and it [14:06] dries and it cures very pretty and it [14:09] keeps a lot of color and it keeps the [14:11] leaf the leaf is the important part of [14:13] that plant that's where all the [14:14] nutrition is and a lot of these other [14:16] places have to flip it two or three [14:18] times oh it's not dried enough let's [14:19] flip it over you just got to get the [14:21] bottom to dry out because once when you [14:23] cut it it's laying there on the ground [14:25] well the part that's up against the [14:26] ground of the or the Alfalfa stand it's [14:29] not seeing the sun ever it's down there [14:31] underneath this super thick Alfalfa so [14:32] let me flip it over all right now you [14:34] dried out that side well darn it and [14:36] then a rainstorm came we got to flip it [14:38] back over again because now that side's [14:40] wet and so they just don't produce the [14:43] quality that we produce [14:46] and with did the rest of the country a [14:49] lot of the country does rely on they we [14:51] call it dry land farming where they do [14:53] rely on rain when there's a drought [14:55] across the country Arizona fills that [14:58] Gap and when there's too much rain like [15:00] there's been years where Idaho or Texas [15:03] and Texas is a huge hit Market I think [15:06] you have so much rain they cannot get in [15:08] their fields and they cannot Harvest it [15:10] so guess what it's almost the same [15:12] problem as having the drought right you [15:13] still can't you don't get anything out [15:15] of your fields and so Arizona fills in [15:17] that Gap [15:18] so I take the point about um you know [15:20] it's easier to cure um given the drier [15:23] weather and you know maybe it's [15:25] producing more higher quality Alfalfa [15:27] but how much does the quality actually [15:29] matter because doesn't most of this go [15:31] to cows for feed like do the cows care [15:36] about the color of the alfalfa hay that [15:38] they're eating [15:40] my my specific Market is the horse [15:42] market so people with horses that have [15:45] anywhere from I mean we've fed horses [15:47] that have been in the um the Kentucky [15:48] Derby we sent uh Hey to Florida where [15:51] there's soup where there's horses that [15:53] fly on private jets back and forth from [15:56] other countries for breeding purposes [15:58] and racing I don't know what they do I [16:00] don't I'm not much of a horse person but [16:02] um yes to them [16:03] it is extremely important and even back [16:06] to the cattle side [16:08] yes it's important because that feed [16:10] value changes and that feed value is [16:13] extremely important the older the hay [16:14] gets the lower the feed value goes down [16:17] that feed value is in direct connection [16:19] to the quality of milk that the cow [16:22] produces so so visual quality for horse [16:25] people is extremely important then test [16:28] quality for cattle for milk cows is [16:31] extremely important and beef not so much [16:34] for beef I mean you can I think lower [16:36] quality hay is fine but once it's laying [16:38] in the field and it gets rained on that [16:40] does take the quality of the way for [16:42] both milk cows and or um horses and back [16:46] to the [16:47] even that feed quality for specifically [16:50] horses that are racehorses Ropers barrel [16:54] racing horses they need that high [16:57] protein to be able to compete right with [16:59] what are they're doing so quality is [17:01] equality is very important and there's a [17:03] lot of people that have horses just as [17:04] pets and they never ride them they just [17:05] like having a horse and that situation [17:07] it's not it's not important um let me [17:09] ask another basic how it works question [17:12] which is how do you actually water the [17:15] Alfalfa so we talked about harvesting [17:17] and curing but what is the watering [17:19] process actually look like and you [17:21] mentioned that I think one of your [17:22] grandparents had built canals on your [17:25] farm that you presumably use for [17:27] irrigation is that what you're doing so [17:30] it's crazy with all this water stuff [17:32] Arizona has less Acres than it's ever [17:34] had and we're more efficient than we've [17:36] ever been but so the Gila River we farm [17:39] right off the Gila River now the Gila [17:40] River they used to call it the grand or [17:42] the mighty fruit they called it [17:43] something Gila River and there was [17:46] always water so they started this canal [17:49] that was up River and then the water [17:52] would come in on this canal and it would [17:54] and they kind of followed the man it's [17:56] amazing the way they did it back then [17:57] and how they were able to find without [17:59] GPS the high points of this little [18:01] Valley we're in and they kind of [18:02] followed the spine of this little Valley [18:05] and so there's that main Canal that [18:07] feeds water to [18:09] all the farmers that are within the [18:12] district so we're very closely measured [18:14] on how much water we use people like to [18:16] imagine we're just using as much water [18:18] as we can we are not at all we get we [18:21] get cut off if we if we use too much you [18:23] you can't just do whatever you want so [18:25] the district manages that water that [18:27] water goes along uh Farmers like myself [18:29] I I will order water a specific amount [18:32] for a time and then we'll go down a [18:34] lateral ditch that feeds off the canal [18:36] and that lateral will then either [18:38] will then carry water to the ditch that [18:41] connects to my Fields now all of our our [18:44] fields are laser leveled so they're flat [18:46] side to side with a end file so there's [18:50] a little bit of geometry involved with [18:51] the farming so when you open the water [18:54] in that designated area of the field [18:56] which might be 120 foot wide quarter [18:58] mile long it flows very evenly from side [19:02] to side so you're covering the whole [19:04] thing and that makes it very efficient [19:06] work versus if you didn't have it flat [19:09] the water would just go all different [19:10] areas and like I said it's section you [19:12] know 100 Acre field is sectioned off in [19:15] 120 foot sections so we're using a [19:18] gradual decline in the land or fall to [19:22] measure that specific area efficiently [19:24] and that's specifically how I irrigate [19:26] but what has become a very efficient way [19:29] of irrigation is subsurface drip which [19:31] is becoming pretty popular in Arizona [19:32] assistant I'd like to do it it's just [19:34] expensive what is that do it okay [19:37] that's where everything is underground [19:39] and so you were uh you're you're saving [19:42] on evaporation but you were getting that [19:44] water directly to the root I mean you [19:47] were just hitting that root with water [19:49] so there's no evaporation it's um which [19:51] evaporation is not as much as people [19:53] like to argue oh evaporation we've done [19:55] studies it's it's it's like two percent [19:57] or less it's it's very very low this is [20:00] um but uh this is my dream for my garden [20:02] is a sister a system of underwater [20:05] irrigation yeah amateur gardeners do [20:08] that yeah yeah I mean like it would take [20:11] a lot but for instance we at the moment [20:13] we have a bunch of underground like [20:15] hoses and pipelines going through two [20:17] and a half acres and they're all leaking [20:19] so that's fun so maybe I actually [20:21] already have Subterranean Irrigation in [20:24] a way that you kind of do yeah you [20:26] anticipated Trevor a question I was [20:27] going to ask which is about advances in [20:30] water use technology over time and I [20:32] have to imagine maybe there are some [20:34] similarities but as you mentioned it's [20:36] gotten more efficient certain relative [20:38] to when you know your ancestors were on [20:40] the same land how does it look [20:41] differently what are some of the [20:42] advances that have been made since some [20:45] of your ancestors were farming on the [20:47] same land to get better output with less [20:49] water [20:51] that laser system has been huge what [20:53] they what they used to do is everything [20:56] was in furrows which a Furrow is it's [20:58] like a washboard like an old washboard [21:01] okay you know the washboard is yeah yes [21:03] but then it runs the water would run [21:05] down there but by having all those [21:06] furrows I mean if you can imagine if [21:08] you've got like a relatively flat area [21:10] and you just open the water up the water [21:12] is going to follow the way of least [21:14] resistance so you're just gonna have [21:15] this water go right down that one area [21:18] and then all that everything else is dry [21:19] so what they did back then is they would [21:22] do these furrows and then and then [21:24] they'd see how all these these low like [21:26] a washboard the water would stay in the [21:28] low spots and then but then everything [21:30] would get watered but it was just not [21:32] very efficient it was rough it was hard [21:34] on equipment and the planter or the [21:36] furrow maker man they're they're heavy [21:38] they're just ah they're they're and then [21:40] before GPS so you still weren't very [21:42] straight man the fact that they thought [21:44] of that was it was great right like man [21:47] back then that they that they saw that [21:48] Insight like hey let's make these yeah a [21:50] washboard if you will and the water is [21:52] hitting all areas which is impressive [21:54] and then they came up with the laser [21:56] system and now they use a GPS system but [21:59] what we have what is very foreign to [22:02] pretty much every state except [22:04] California and Arizona there's a few [22:06] other places as [22:07] we call them borders it's a dirt Ridge [22:10] that runs from the top of the field to [22:12] the bottom of the field and that's the [22:13] earlier I was talking about sectioning [22:15] off your field to irrigate you run a [22:17] border from top to bottom and it's about [22:19] two feet tall and then you go over into [22:21] pins because every field does have [22:24] natural sidefall but the goal is to [22:26] between those two borders get rid of [22:28] that because you want that water to flow [22:30] evenly you know two inches deep across [22:33] that hole uh 100 or however many feet [22:36] you know 100 and or 60 feet if it's a [22:39] steep field then you have a bunch of 60 [22:40] feet borders if it's a steep field you [22:42] have a few or a 120 plus borders but [22:45] that laser leveling has been an amazing [22:48] tool for running irrigation extremely [22:51] efficient like I said we open up the [22:52] area on that little section 120 foot by [22:55] quarter mile and that water runs like I [22:58] said two inches deep or less just the [23:01] length of that and I mean you imagine it [23:03] looks like a it's like 120 foot that [23:06] water's just going just even with itself [23:08] all the way and gets down to the bottom [23:10] of the field you shut it off and it just [23:11] kind of drains itself right there it [23:13] just kind of stops right there if I mean [23:16] if you have irrigators that aren't [23:18] paying attention and they'll fall asleep [23:19] then they'll mess up but when [23:21] everything's going correctly it manages [23:24] so so efficient and so smooth so that [23:26] that laser system has been probably the [23:28] best most efficient way okay I should [23:31] say the best it's probably the most [23:32] efficient way just because what it costs [23:33] to do versus the subsurface drip is [23:36] definitely the most efficient way but oh [23:38] it costs depending on like what oil [23:41] prices where they are and yeah and like [23:43] PVC Everything is Everything is [23:45] petroleum-based so right now it's [23:47] probably 3 000 or more dollars per acre [23:50] to put all that in when petroleum-based [23:53] things are cheaper you can two thousand [23:55] dollars an acre used to be the kind of [23:56] the number well when you're looking at [23:58] bigger Farms 4 000 Acre Farm oh my gosh [24:01] that adds up real quick so let me ask [24:04] you a question that kind of like cuts to [24:05] the heart of a lot of this discussion [24:07] but how real or Salient are concerns [24:12] over water for you right now like have [24:15] you witnessed water shortages during [24:18] your time as a farmer has it affected [24:21] your business are you getting perhaps a [24:24] more pressures from you know external [24:28] sources to reduce your water use how is [24:31] it actually playing out for you [24:33] so for us it's kind of unique right [24:35] where we Farm we're we're the area they [24:37] call up [24:38] waterlogged area with extremely [24:41] extremely salty water and a lot of the [24:45] water that we specifically use for the [24:47] past hundred years has come from Phoenix [24:49] Water Treatment Plant where I farm we're [24:52] not allowed to grow produce because it [24:53] comes from water treatment we don't get [24:55] water from the Colorado River I don't [24:57] get water from the Salt River Project [24:59] our water comes from Eastern Arizona as [25:02] the rains come down and it trickles down [25:04] the the Salt River and it comes into the [25:06] Gila River and it keeps our aquifer very [25:10] full of water rather but our water is so [25:12] salty and then then taking the water [25:14] from the paying the city for their water [25:16] back before Phoenix was was a big city [25:19] they loved that we took their water and [25:21] so we've never really had a right where [25:23] I farm specifically anyways we've never [25:25] had a fear of losing our water until um [25:28] with technology the water treatment [25:30] plants have gotten really good at [25:32] cleaning water and desalinization plants [25:34] they look our no one ever wanted our [25:36] water they're like no no we don't want [25:38] your water it's it's disgusting it's [25:39] super salty we can't use it for anything [25:41] like we're glad you guys are actually [25:43] using it because if you weren't this [25:46] place would be almost like a swamp down [25:48] here like there are areas if you if uh [25:51] you can drive where the ground is always [25:52] slightly muddy that's because that [25:54] water's like three or four feet [25:55] underground it's just right down there [25:57] and so they love that we're farming it [25:59] pumping it out of the ground and using [26:00] it because they don't want to deal with [26:03] with the swap I guess I mean not not a [26:06] literal swamp but what's also changed a [26:08] lot years ago they brought in a tree [26:10] called a salt cedar tree and it's from I [26:13] think it's from [26:15] Africa or [26:16] the Middle East I don't know where it's [26:18] from but it's not native to Arizona and [26:20] this tree uses a lot of water and it has [26:25] overgrown The Gila River or my the river [26:27] I just told you I farmed on and it uses [26:29] a lot of water and since that tree has [26:32] been brought in and it's infested their [26:34] River and even the desert the water [26:37] doesn't flow Down The Gila River very [26:39] much anymore it rarely does it Senator [26:41] Cena Kerr she's been pushing and other [26:43] people then pushing let's clean out this [26:45] non-native invasive tree that uses a lot [26:50] of water but they're I don't know so [26:52] it's a physical rights are like oh [26:54] there's owls and stuff living in there [26:55] and the butterflies or something so big [26:59] picture okay maybe your farm [27:01] specifically is in a position where it's [27:04] not for historically a lot of the water [27:06] that used no one else wanted it do you [27:09] feel like at some point like for your [27:10] industry and I'm sure you talk to other [27:12] Farmers like this is coming to a head [27:14] like okay there is this much water that [27:16] can be used used for agriculture there's [27:18] household demand there's industrial [27:20] demand like is someone gonna have to [27:23] give here [27:24] Yes somewhere it is gonna have to get I [27:26] I guess I didn't finish my other [27:27] thoughts or your question with [27:29] desalinization plants people are now [27:31] looking at our water thinking oh huh [27:33] there's a bunch of water right there [27:35] that these farmer Farmers have that we [27:36] can have and now the city is good at [27:39] cleaning the water [27:40] they're looking at it thinking oh maybe [27:42] we'll just go buy this water from the [27:44] farmers once they're they're 100 Year [27:46] deal pop ends with the with the city so [27:48] that is a fear of ours yes and so then [27:50] yes to your point we do [27:53] realize that there's something's going [27:55] to have to give and there used to be [27:57] good laws in place about where you could [28:00] build because it is a desert the idea [28:03] back [28:04] and I'll you'd have to go back and look [28:05] at the [28:06] the history and judgments and stuff but [28:09] they said you you had the bill where you [28:11] could have water [28:13] well then it got real fishy because the [28:15] thought was as home builders and [28:18] Manufacturing bought property from [28:20] Farmers that water would then go from a [28:22] farmer to a house so you're you've just [28:25] traded from one this industry to another [28:27] well then [28:29] the water laws up in you know over my [28:32] pay grade in the city started oh well [28:34] technically we could send water up to [28:37] this real pretty area over here or in [28:40] the mountains where they want to build [28:41] some houses then all of a sudden water [28:43] gets sent another way oh there's a [28:46] freeway up here [28:47] it sure would be nice to have buildings [28:50] and stuff next to the freeway well so [28:52] then they started buying buying property [28:55] in the desert and building in the desert [28:57] and it kind of skipped around the farm [28:58] ground and then now everyone's wondering [29:00] like oh now we're low on water well [29:03] 80 years ago when they kind of looked [29:05] ahead to the Future they said well if we [29:08] trade Farm ground for Housing and [29:11] Development the water just changes [29:13] traded hands well then I said I don't [29:15] know it happened before my time but some [29:17] water rules were changed and that's [29:20] where it gets pretty fishy and that to [29:22] me that's the real story who changed [29:23] these water rules I mean if I said the [29:25] farmers didn't change a rule we've been [29:26] here farming for over 100 we're farming [29:28] less Acres than ever but so there were [29:30] some things that kind of change that'd [29:32] be interesting to get the full story on [29:33] that because like yeah there's big um [29:35] housing developments up in these [29:38] areas that are very arid there's no [29:40] water there's no farming that ever [29:41] happened there they just boom let's [29:43] throw in these several thousand homes [29:45] and neighborhoods and use a whole bunch [29:48] of water [29:50] [Music] [30:06] so let me ask you a maybe a tough [30:09] question but is there anything that [30:10] would make you [30:12] reconsider or maybe [30:15] rethink growing Alfalfa like what would [30:18] be the conditions under which that is no [30:21] longer either desirable or profitable [30:24] for you [30:26] well it's just like any other industry [30:28] right I mean a car manufacturer what [30:29] would make them want to stop [30:31] manufacturing cars it's all market-based [30:33] as long as we have water and soil you [30:35] know I can grow whatever the market is [30:38] asking we don't I don't grow Alfalfa [30:41] because that's what I want to grow it's [30:42] that's what the market asks for yeah it [30:45] makes sense uh let me ask you I mean [30:47] it's all it's all based on you know [30:49] paying my bills what what pays my bills [30:51] and right now it's alfalfa [30:52] do you have cotton came back and cotton [30:55] was that was back to being King they [30:57] used to say cotton is king all of a [30:59] sudden cotton was what what the Mills [31:01] wanted what what the markets were [31:02] calling for men would grow cotton I just [31:04] realized your road is on below road so [31:06] that's the family that's the family name [31:09] um have any home builders because when [31:11] we talked to when we talked about [31:12] Arizona land they're talking about well [31:14] a lot of the what is you know where home [31:17] builders build was formerly agricultural [31:19] land is your area an area in which at [31:23] some point are uh home builders [31:25] potentially trying to bid on your land [31:27] or is there ever a point where the [31:29] economics in your area could be such [31:31] that a homebuilder would find more value [31:33] from it and writing you a big check than [31:35] growing alfalfa [31:37] yeah it's yeah right now we're about 10 [31:41] miles from the freeway and so that's [31:42] what kind of keeps that from happening [31:44] but there's a bunch of plans of the of a [31:46] like a reliever freeway coming through [31:48] our area and I mean it's all about [31:50] Transportation right any anywhere [31:53] it's generally relates directly to [31:56] transportation and when you're far away [31:57] from a freeway or whatever something [32:00] that's around you it's all related to [32:02] that that's why all of the growth has [32:04] happened around the freeway Interstate [32:06] 10 I-17 I-17 or I say 202 over here it's [32:12] all based around the 101 the freeways [32:15] and we're about eight to ten miles off [32:17] the freeway so if we're right on the [32:19] freeway yeah it would be knocking on the [32:22] door but uh it's all based on um [32:24] transportation so I just have one last [32:26] question and I guess it's sort of [32:27] open-ended but we started let's talk [32:29] about all these debates that happen [32:31] about water use in Arizona well it's [32:32] sort of like the one thing that you [32:35] think people are missing big picture [32:37] when they discuss this and like what's [32:40] sort of like the one thing you would [32:41] like more people to understand about the [32:43] distribution of a water in Arizona [32:46] I guess I said it earlier water was [32:48] never an issue until the city got as big [32:50] as it was we're farming that in the [32:52] state less Acres than we've ever farmed [32:54] or using less water than we've ever used [32:56] and we're more efficient than we've ever [32:57] been [32:58] and so as the city gets bigger now water [33:01] is an issue is you you guys talked about [33:03] earlier why they're building these uh [33:05] chip manufacturing plants in Arizona why [33:07] don't they build them somewhere they [33:09] don't have to build them here you know [33:10] we Farm here we Farm here because this [33:13] is the only place in the United States [33:15] you can Farm like this this and parts of [33:16] central California that's it you can't [33:18] Farm like this and when you say like [33:20] this when you when you say like this [33:22] yeah year round and produce the quality [33:25] of crops that we produce right there I [33:28] mean there's things we can't grow here [33:29] but that they grow all over the Midwest [33:30] which is why they grow them there I [33:33] could go farm somewhere else by be [33:34] farming a different crop I guess without [33:36] Arizona and and really the scary one is [33:39] California if you ever look up how much [33:41] milk or produce the Central Valley [33:45] California bruises oh my gosh if they [33:47] lose their water [33:49] everything we [33:50] think Ouija board produce related is [33:52] going to come from another country and [33:54] it's going to be sprayed with every [33:55] nasty chemical to kill every single bug [33:58] that ever lived so they can sell it to [34:01] the United States because we got rid of [34:03] all the water and or the farming in [34:04] California that's what scares me yeah I [34:06] love Arizona that's where I farm but [34:08] for the sake of our country California [34:10] scares me the most holy if you if we [34:12] lose Central Valley farming but anyways [34:15] we've been doing this for over 100 years [34:17] here and it was it's never been an issue [34:19] until [34:20] the city got really big Trevor bales of [34:24] a Bells hay Farm really appreciate you [34:26] coming on a really good uh perspective I [34:28] thought we're going to talk about [34:29] Alfalfa markets that's what's [34:30] interesting to me what did we miss on [34:32] Alfalfa markets [34:34] so most other markets are trackable and [34:37] have a cotton Market the wheat Market [34:39] The Barley Market there's uh the corn [34:41] Market Alfalfa is like you talk about [34:43] want to talk about like the wild west of [34:45] markets it's I mean it's so similar to [34:48] the stock market there's no like Alfalfa [34:50] futures or anything no there aren't and [34:52] so like every other like like beef uh [34:55] like everything like Alfalfa so like [34:57] right now actually we are in a crazy I [35:00] mean it's just falling Like a Rock [35:02] there is an alfalfa producer pricing [35:06] yeah and it is falling huh so what's [35:07] going on there the United States has [35:10] exported its agriculture things for as [35:12] long as once Boats were once we started [35:15] shipping stuff out of the country we've [35:16] been exporting so forever yeah so the we [35:19] export a lot of hay out of the country [35:20] those exporters last year and the year [35:23] before that for some reason came in [35:26] swinging real hard wanting to buy a lot [35:28] of alfalfa this is all over the country [35:30] too they buy like all over the West [35:33] Coast Washington Oregon California [35:34] Arizona they buy a lot so they came in [35:37] swinging and it they they raised the [35:40] price up I remember 300 used to be the [35:43] high number and this is per ton we [35:44] always think of things per ton yeah I [35:46] think wow wow that hay was sold for 285 [35:50] dollars a ton wow maybe one day we'll [35:52] hit 300 wow well in less than a year it [35:55] went from 300 to 400 a ton and then it [35:58] went upwards of like 360 a time or 460 a [36:01] ton so it went way up there which is [36:03] very high but then this year they came [36:06] back in and they're not buying well [36:08] everyone got this started off the year [36:11] again with this false thinking thinking [36:14] it was going to be high again and so I [36:16] have to buy a lot of hay because of the [36:18] like we've we've run a successful [36:20] business and we sell a lot of hay to all [36:22] over the country all my hay stays local [36:24] it doesn't get exported but it stays [36:26] here in the U.S and so we Harvest all [36:28] our stuff then I harvest other people's [36:30] hay and I buy it from them well they are [36:33] looking at what they think the market is [36:35] the beginning of the year and they're [36:36] well we think that you know it's still [36:38] three three thirty three forty okay so [36:40] here we are in March and April [36:42] harvesting hay and paying 340 for it [36:44] three three thirty three forty and then [36:47] as it's been going it's just this crazy [36:50] uneasy nobody knows and you're all these [36:53] weird numbers and the exporters aren't [36:55] buying and all of a sudden now so where [36:58] I purchased hey two months ago for 340 [37:01] dollars a ton I think I'm going to [37:03] purchase hay this month for 195 dollars [37:07] a ton which [37:08] I guess if you don't understand that's a [37:11] huge swing in our industry from one to [37:15] the other and it's just such a [37:16] interesting Market I mean it especially [37:18] in the stock market and all the movies [37:20] you watch like it's it's all about what [37:21] how what do you what do you think what [37:23] does this guy think you know where it [37:25] doesn't necessarily matter what's really [37:27] happening it's what is your perception [37:29] and what does what do people think is [37:32] going to happen and so everyone [37:34] starts making decisions on what they [37:36] think is going to happen and everyone [37:38] thought the market was going to stay [37:39] high and [37:40] I mean to see it fall over a hundred [37:43] dollars a ton in a couple months I mean [37:44] that's that's crazy we need a nail of a [37:48] Futures Market uh Trevor thank you so [37:50] much I'm glad we got that context in the [37:52] sort of the current date the market [37:54] swing but uh really appreciate you [37:56] coming on online yeah thanks guys yeah [37:58] that was great thank you so much [38:01] [Music] [38:04] thank you [38:06] [Music] [38:12] Tracy I really like that conversation I [38:15] mean there was a lot in there but just [38:17] to start you know I like hearing about [38:18] like the technological advantages and [38:20] irrigation and farming and like now how [38:23] they use lasers to make sure it's like [38:24] perfectly flat and stuff like that oh [38:26] God my husband got one of those to like [38:28] measure hanging pictures on the walls [38:30] and like Terrace slopes and things like [38:32] that and he will not stop using it it [38:34] looks very cool measuring the flatness [38:36] of things a couple things stood out for [38:38] me so number one I think people hear oh [38:40] why are we farming Alfalfa in the desert [38:42] it makes no sense but Trevor's point [38:44] about how it's actually easier to cure [38:47] the alfalfa hay that makes a lot of [38:49] sense to me it doesn't necessarily mean [38:51] it's efficient from a water perspective [38:54] but you could see why that would be [38:55] beneficial if you're making these giant [38:57] rolls of dried grass essentially and [39:00] then the other thing that struck me was [39:02] you know this idea that a lot of the [39:03] Alfalfa is going to fancy horses yeah it [39:07] does seem like horses kind of escape a [39:09] lot of climate change contribution [39:11] scrutiny right everyone always talks [39:13] about cows so what about the horses [39:15] someone is going to uh some horse person [39:18] out there is going to get really angry [39:19] that's fine I think horses are an easier [39:22] Target I don't think there is on any of [39:24] them I don't think there is many of them [39:25] I don't think they're I mean no offense [39:27] to Trevor I don't think that end Market [39:29] is as crucial but you know what I think [39:31] was interesting and a point that he made [39:33] that sort of like helped things click [39:35] whereas you point out you know like at [39:36] some places you'll get drought in some [39:38] places you'll get sometimes you'll get [39:39] flooding right and so really one thing [39:42] about errors one thing one thing that's [39:43] nice about the desert it's consistent [39:46] it's predictable right and so it's like [39:48] okay there are obviously drawbacks and [39:50] such as the fact that there is like you [39:52] know the water is ambiguous but you know [39:54] what you're gonna get and so once you [39:56] start from that standpoint like you can [39:58] like get a it's every on every other [40:00] metric Arizona is very efficient for [40:02] these crops totally and that was a [40:04] perspective that we hadn't really heard [40:06] before but but again it's one of those [40:09] things like okay it made sense for a [40:12] long time but as the cities developed to [40:15] Trevor's Point as we build these [40:16] semiconductor factories it does feel [40:19] like decisions tough decisions might [40:21] need to be made but on the other hand [40:23] like maybe the answer is to keep Arizona [40:25] an agricultural Powerhouse and not [40:28] continue to spread Phoenix as far as the [40:30] eye can see like we sort of like oh [40:32] everyone's moving to Phoenix therefore [40:33] we need less agriculture her but it is [40:36] good to get the perspective of the [40:37] people in the Agriculture and say yeah [40:38] but why does Phoenix need to just keep [40:40] growing in all directions or move the [40:42] Fabs elsewhere or move the Fabs [40:43] elsewhere yeah yeah all right shall we [40:45] leave it there let's leave it there this [40:47] has been another episode of the allbots [40:49] podcast I'm Tracy Alloway you can follow [40:51] me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm [40:54] Joe weisenthal you can follow me on [40:56] Twitter at the stalwart check out the [40:58] Instagram of Our Guest Trevor Bales [41:00] check out at baleshay on Instagram where [41:03] he makes lots of interesting videos [41:04] about Alfalfa farming in Arizona follow [41:08] our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen [41:10] Armin and dashel Bennett at dashbot and [41:12] check out all of our podcasts at [41:14] Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts [41:17] and for more Odd Lots content go to [41:19] bloomberg.com Odd Lots where we have [41:22] transcripts a Blog and letter that comes [41:24] out every Friday and check out our [41:26] Discord where you can chat 24 7 with [41:28] fellow listeners about all this stuff [41:30] there's even a water channel in there [41:32] I'm sure we're going to be talking about [41:33] this episode go to discord.gg uploads [41:38] thanks for listening [41:39] [Music] [41:50] yes [41:56] [Music]