Cramer Details How Hedge Funds Rig Stocks to Protect Year-End Pay

Cramer on How Hedge Funds are Scamming the Market — Cats Meow Trading

Cats Meow Trading

Hedge fund managers routinely fabricate rumors and manipulate options flow to suppress equities into year-end settlement windows because regulators fail to understand intraday market mechanics.

AI-assisted summary of Cramer on How Hedge Funds are Scamming the Market — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published:

Key ideas

  • Hedge fund operators routinely manipulate pre-market futures with $5M to $10M in capital to orchestrate an artificial morning pop and subsequent intraday fade. (0:04)
  • Year-end performance compensation structures force hedge funds to suppress fundamentally strong stocks to defend short positions and prevent client redemptions. (1:41)
  • Bear raids against liquid equities like Apple and RIM are coordinated by spreading false whispers across multiple trading desks while dispersing put option orders across separate brokerages. (3:36)
  • Investment banks actively muzzle research analysts from publishing bearish ratings on distressed corporations like Ford to safeguard lucrative underwriting and banking fees. (8:12)

Detailed notes

## Background This video was uploaded to YouTube by the channel Cats Meow Trading on April 5, 2020. The page description frames the clip as Jim Cramer explaining the market manipulation techniques hedge funds use to engineer strange micro-trends.

## TL;DR In a candid sit-down with Aaron Task on *Wall Street Confidential*, Jim Cramer breaks down the aggressive, behind-the-scenes playbooks hedge funds use to manipulate market prices and protect their year-end bonuses. Drawing from his own hedge fund career, Cramer details how managers deploy relatively small amounts of capital to misdirect futures, hit bids to break high-profile stocks like Research In Motion, and orchestrate whisper campaigns alongside well-timed put options to suppress Apple before major product events. He explains that short-term price discovery is fundamentally detached from earnings reality, with institutional players fabricating narratives, exploiting press relationships, and taking advantage of regulators who fail to understand modern market plumbing. Along the way, Cramer addresses investment banking conflicts silencing negative coverage of Ford and observes that desperate Federal Reserve officials will eventually be forced into rate cuts.

## Atmosphere & style The exchange has an astonishingly brazen, behind-closed-doors locker-room feel, contrasting sharply with polished financial broadcasts as Cramer freely admits to tactics he notes he would never dare say on television. Cramer speaks with casual swagger and unfiltered glee, chuckling over lucrative manipulation schemes while treating market misdirection as a fun, essential survival game. Task acts as a mildly amused yet probing foil, giving Cramer the runway to peel back Wall Street's curtain with startling, unrepentant candor.

## Bulletin - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=4s) Hedge fund operators routinely manipulate pre-market futures with $5M to $10M in capital to orchestrate an artificial morning pop and subsequent intraday fade. - [01:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=101s) Year-end performance compensation structures force hedge funds to suppress fundamentally strong stocks to defend short positions and prevent client redemptions. - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) Bear raids against liquid equities like Apple and RIM are coordinated by spreading false whispers across multiple trading desks while dispersing put option orders across separate brokerages. - [08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=492s) Investment banks actively muzzle research analysts from publishing bearish ratings on distressed corporations like Ford to safeguard lucrative underwriting and banking fees.

## Key takeaways - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=4s) Intraday misdirection using $5M to $10M allows hedge funds to mark futures higher early, setting up an engineered fade once cash trading opens. - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=4s) Short-horizon traders intentionally trigger negative technical and psychological sentiment because the strategy is lucrative, legal, and rapid. - [01:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=101s) Hedge fund managers facing year-end settlement deadlines face immense pressure to keep markets down to protect bonuses and avoid client redemptions. - [01:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=101s) Fomenting false impressions violates securities regulations, but hedge funds routinely exploit it because regulatory agencies like the SEC do not understand market mechanics. - [01:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=101s) Breaking a targeted stock requires exhausting $15M to $20M by aggressively hitting consecutive bids while leaking negative rumors to financial journalists. - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) Apple served as an ideal bear raid target due to its strict no-comment policy, allowing fabricated carrier rejection rumors to spread unchecked. - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) To mask trading footprints and manufacture artificial bearish sentiment, funds purchase out-of-the-money puts split across separate brokerages like Morgan Stanley and UBS. - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) Hedge fund playbooks deliberately abandon truth to construct profitable market fictions, knocking share prices down to cover shorts and buy back cheap ahead of major product catalysts. - [05:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=340s) Short-term market prices decouple almost entirely from reported fundamentals and blowout quarterly earnings in the face of heavy order flow and media echo chambers. - [05:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=340s) Handset manufacturers like Motorola and Nokia engage in mutually destructive price wars, avoiding explicit price fixing only out of fear of antitrust enforcement. - [05:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=340s) The Federal Reserve faces an acute policy trap, quietly desperate to cut interest rates due to weak manufacturing data without damaging its credibility. - [08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=492s) Wall Street corporate finance departments pressure sell-side equity analysts to suppress negative research on massive prospective banking clients like Ford. - [08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=492s) Ford displayed severe financial distress by mortgaging assets and subordinating common equity for bondholders, but was shielded from scrutiny by nostalgic national sentiment. - [09:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=567s) Blowout earnings at Research In Motion were actively capped late in December solely because managers with five days left in the year could not afford a rally that disrupted their annual bonus grids.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=4s) Futures Manipulation and Intraday Market Misdirection

Host Aaron Task opens *Wall Street Confidential* alongside Jim Cramer to examine economic data and intraday price dynamics, specifically asking why the market is being knocked down after futures indicated an upward move. Cramer explains that this misdirection is an old playbook from his hedge fund days. When running a short book and needing down pressure, he would manufacture pre-market trading activity to shift futures: “It doesn't take much money.” Similarly, when holding long positions, a manager hoping to create an optimistic tone would commit roughly $5 million in capital to mark select individual equities higher. While modern market depth might require closer to $10 million to knock equities down, Cramer describes it as a highly lucrative and entertaining practice.

He outlines the mechanics of intraday narrative control: a trader intentionally pumps futures higher early in the session, anticipating that when organic institutional volume and genuine sellers hit the floor, they will hammer prices back down. This swift reversal creates an overwhelmingly negative technical and psychological impression across trading desks. Cramer emphasizes that for short-horizon performance marks, this strategy is extremely valuable, remarking: “And I would encourage anyone who's in the hedge fund game to do it because it's legal, right, and it is a very quick way to make money and very satisfying.” When Task notes that virtually nobody else on Wall Street would admit to using such tactics, Cramer replies that while he can speak freely on *Wall Street Confidential*, he would never say it on television.

- Typical manipulation required around $5 million during Cramer's hedge fund tenure, compared to an estimated $10 million needed in larger contemporary markets. - Intraday strategies often push futures up early simply to trigger an aggressive sell-off ("fade") once cash trading opens. - Year-end compensation creates intense urgency: hedge fund managers positioned short face a critical six-day window before year-end to defend positions and ensure their payday.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Intraday Misdirection Flow accDescr: Sequence showing how hedge fund managers push futures early to manufacture a market fade. subgraph S1["Pre-Market Engineering"] A["Deploy $5M-$10M Capital"] --> B["Artificially Elevate Futures"] end subgraph S2["Cash Open"] B --> C["Open Floor to Organic Volume"] C --> D["Real Sellers Knock Market Down"] end subgraph S3["Market Sentiment"] D --> E["Manufacture Bleak 'Fade' Psychology"] end ```

[01:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=101s) Fomenting False Narratives: The Playbook on Research In Motion

Task questions whether the proliferation of modern hedge funds intensifies market volatility. Cramer points out that hedge funds, unlike long-only mutual funds, maintain large short books and face acute pressure during final year-end settlement windows. Desperate funds down single digits or barely up must prevent any market advance to avoid redemptions or protect bonuses. When an asset like Research In Motion (RIM / BlackBerry) acts as an index fulcrum, short sellers deploy their capital to hammer it down, regardless of fundamentals. Addressing the regulatory boundary, Cramer admits: “Now you can't ferment—that's a violation of—yeah, you can't foment, you can't create a yourself an impression that a stock's down, but you do it anyway because the SEC doesn't understand it.”

Cramer walks through how a manager systematically breaks a stock. When wanting an asset lower, an operator relentlessly hits every available bid ("hit an offer, hit an offer, hit an offer" / hitting bids across desks) to dismantle buying appetite, exhausting $15 to $20 million in order to force RIM down and beleaguer institutional longs. Alongside direct trading pressure, managers manufacture public distress. They leak false narratives to financial reporters, feed rumors to media figures like CNBC's Bob Pisani, or contact beat journalists at *The Wall Street Journal* to claim competitor Palm has a "killer" device that will undercut RIM's hardware. Cramer frames these actions as baseline survival tactics: “These are all the things you must do on a day like today, and if you're not doing it, maybe you shouldn't be in the game.”

- Execution tactic for walking prices up: “take and bid, take and bid, take and bid”; for driving prices down: hitting bids sequentially across desks. - Capital expenditure required to push a major stock like RIM down: approximately $15 million to $20 million. - Regulatory stance: Cramer notes that although fomenting false price impressions violates securities rules, managers routinely proceed because regulatory bodies lack market mechanics literacy.

[03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) Manufacturing Apple Rumors and the Orchestrated Bear Raid

Turning to Apple ahead of Macworld, Cramer details how short sellers construct a multi-channel smear campaign to push the stock down from the $84–$85 range. Because Apple strictly adheres to a no-comment policy, it serves as the perfect target for unsubstantiated leaks. A trader initiates calls to half a dozen trading desks claiming inside access to carrier executives: “And the way you would do that is you pick up the phone, you call six trading desks and say, listen, I just got off the phone with my contact at Verizon and he has already said, listen, we're an LG house, we're a Samsung house, we're a Motorola house, there's no room for Apple, they want too much, we're not going to let them in, we're not going to let them do what they did to music.”

To validate the whispered carrier rumors, the manager buys out-of-the-money January 80 put options across disconnected brokers—giving an order to Morgan Stanley for 1,000 contracts and then approaching UBS to stay under individual tracking thresholds. Once desks see unusual institutional put activity, they flag the blocks to market reporters like Bob Pisani, claiming insider or institutional bearishness. Cramer states flatly: “So what's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view, right, that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction.” A fund up only 6% facing client withdrawal redemptions starting January 2 cannot allow the market to rise. Once the smear drops Apple down to $80, the fund buys cheap common shares to flip long right before Steve Jobs unveils the iPhone at Macworld.

- Target asset pricing: Apple hovering around $84–$85 per share; target put strike: January 80 puts. - Execution spread: Dispersing blocks of 1,000 puts across multiple brokerages (e.g., Morgan Stanley, UBS) to mask footprint and trigger desk chatter. - Asymmetric play: Knock the equity down via false leaks to close shorts, then flip to common equity ahead of product introductions.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Coordinated Short Raid Mechanics accDescr: Three-step feedback loop involving desk phone calls, targeted option purchases, and press amplification. subgraph Execution["1. Coordinated Trading Pressure"] A["Call 6 Trading Desks: Claim Carrier Rejection"] B["Buy Jan 80 Puts via Morgan Stanley & UBS"] end subgraph Amplification["2. Media Echo Chamber"] A --> C["Desks Report 'Smart Put Buying'"] B --> C C --> D["Feed Press Leaks & Broadcast on CNBC"] end subgraph Extraction["3. Position Reversal"] D --> E["Equity Drops from $85 to $80"] E --> F["Cover Shorts & Buy Cheap Common Shares"] end ```

[05:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=340s) Fundamental Irrelevance, Cell Phone Price Wars, and Fed Cuts

When Task notes that RIM just posted blockbuster financial results, Cramer dismisses fundamental analysis as irrelevant to short-term market prices: “Great thing about the market is has nothing to do with the actual stuff, right now.” Even if buyers eventually discover the rumors were false two weeks later, the short seller's objective has already been achieved. Cramer draws a comparison to systemic corporate dishonesty, citing Fannie Mae's $6 billion accounting revisions to illustrate that market fiction frequently overtakes fact. Behind the scenes, the market functions through a self-reinforcing nexus: hitting brokerage desks with heavy orders, leaking false narratives to the press, and confirming the downward momentum on television.

Addressing the broader wireless handset environment, Cramer describes the competition between manufacturers like Motorola and Nokia as mutually destructive price slashing: “Frankly, the discussion we're killing each other, you know, right, someone has to take a dive; Motorola and Nokia have to get in a room and just fix price.” He observes that these firms have avoided collusion only because fear of the Department of Justice and corporate counsel remains active, though he predicts shareholder losses will eventually force them into backroom compromises. Finally, Task brings up weaker-than-expected economic data. Cramer argues that traders must ignore headline bond market reactions; the Federal Reserve is quietly terrified about manufacturing weakness and desperately looking to cut interest rates without appearing incompetent: “The Fed is actually desperate to try to figure out, you know, how quickly they have to cut without looking like dopes that they've been talking about they're worried about inflation all this; you don't want to raise in May and then cut in January, you look like Mexico.”

- Fannie Mae referenced as a benchmark of corporate earnings fabrication totaling $6 billion. - Market mechanic: Short-term price behavior is dominated by order flow, desk whispering, and media amplification rather than reported quarterly earnings. - Federal Reserve policy dilemma: Caught between public inflation warnings and rapidly deteriorating manufacturing prints, risking reputational damage if forced to pivot from rate hikes to rate cuts within months.

[08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=492s) Ford’s Banking Conflicts and the Illusion of Solvency

Jim Cramer and Aaron Task address how major investment banks handle troubled corporate giants, specifically looking back at conversations earlier in the week where Cramer had suggested a crisis at Ford Motor Company could become a wider market trigger. Cramer explains that because Ford pledged enormous amounts of lucrative investment banking business across Wall Street firms, those banks became extremely hesitant to publish negative research. With Ford shaping up to be potentially the biggest banking client of 2007, an internal corporate finance banker can easily lean on a research analyst by claiming they spoke directly with Ford CEO Alan Mulally and insist that management's turnaround plan works. Confronted with that pressure right at bonus season, an analyst chooses career survival over objective truth—especially as regulatory pressure shifts. As Jim Cramer bluntly frames the mindset: “Spitzer's going to Albany well let's get back in the game right I think that's important.”

Task compares the situation to the previous year when widespread rumors suggested General Motors was headed for bankruptcy, only for GM stock to rally 50% afterward. Cramer immediately pushes back, drawing a sharp operational distinction between the two automakers. While GM's balance sheet turned out to be far stronger than people assumed, Ford's financial position is fundamentally compromised. Cramer argues that Ford's desperation was laid bare when it mortgaged its assets and subordinated common equity holders to secure debt financing for bondholders. If any obscure or foreign firm took those steps, the market would clearly label it a company on the brink of failure, but Ford gets an emotional pass because of its iconic place in American heritage. As Jim Cramer puts it: “Fourth balance sheets pathetic and you know that because they were willing to screw over the common for the bonds that's kind of if it weren't for word if this were um walk on we'd be saying quality desperate you know but you know it's for support it's an American III 912 record you know I owned a Ford once and this is our country well that's right.”

- Corporate finance departments pressure research analysts to suppress bearish calls when prospective clients represent massive underwriting fees. - Ford's willingness to encumber core assets and sacrifice common equity protections to placate bondholders exposed deep structural desperation. - Sentimental national attachment shields domestic flagship corporations from the cold analytical scrutiny that foreign or unfamiliar companies receive.

---

[09:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=567s) Year-End Hedge Fund Pressure, RIM’s Earnings, and Market Targets

Turning back to the broader mission of *Wall Street Confidential*, Cramer explains why he feels compelled to pull back the curtain on how hedge funds genuinely operate. In an intraday broadcast environment, ordinary investors must understand the hidden tactical motives of institutional managers rather than accepting market action at face value. Examining Research In Motion (RIM), Cramer notes that the company reported a blowout quarter with surprisingly resilient profit margins while its competitors appeared to falter. Under normal circumstances, RIM shares deserved to surge significantly. However, because it was a Friday late in December with only five trading days left in the year, fund managers simply could not tolerate a sharp upward spike in a heavily shorted or volatile name that would wreck their annual performance numbers. As Jim Cramer explains the institutional dilemma: “It looks like the other guys have really dropped out it's a terrific story should it be up six yeah I think so but you know look where we are it's Friday you know you got five more days to make your grid can you really risk having RIM up this much I don't think you can.”

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Hedge Fund Year-End Compression Mechanism accDescr: Diagram showing how a company's blowout fundamentals get suppressed by institutional managers defending year-end performance grids.

subgraph Fundamental ["Fundamental Reality"] A["Research In Motion (RIM)<br>Blowout Quarter & Strong Margins"] B["Natural Market Reaction:<br>Stock Deserves to Rally +$6"] end

subgraph Institutional ["Fund Mechanics & Deadlines"] C["Year-End Timing:<br>Only 5 Days Left in the Year"] D["Manager Incentive:<br>Must 'Make Your Grid' for Annual Bonus"] end

subgraph Outcome ["Price Distortion"] E["Short-Selling & Capping:<br>Cannot Risk Letting Stock Spike"] F["Stock Suppressed:<br>Market Disconnects from Fundamentals"] end

A --> B B -.->|"Overridden by"| E C --> D D --> E E --> F ```

The discussion concludes with a review of year-end market targets and upcoming forecasts. Task and Cramer confirm they are both taking the following week off for the holidays before returning for 2007. Cramer reiterates his satisfaction with his year-end market call, having predicted the Dow would finish at 12,460, noting that trading the previous day brought the index within just 20 points of his exact forecast. When Task asks if he has a target ready for 2007, Cramer confirms he does, but declines to reveal it on air, noting that he is rolling it out over a five-day series exclusively on RealMoney.com before Task wraps up the segment for TheStreet.com TV.

- Research In Motion posted exceptional margins and strong fundamentals, yet institutional price capping prevented the stock from expressing its true underlying demand. - Year-end hedge fund compensation structures ("making the grid") heavily distort late-December equity pricing and override quarterly earnings performance. - Cramer's target of 12,460 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded within approximately 20 points of his projected mark as the trading year came to a close.

## Notable quotes > [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) So what's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view, right, that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction. — Jim Cramer

> [01:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=101s) you can't foment, you can't create a yourself an impression that a stock's down, but you do it anyway because the SEC doesn't understand it. — Jim Cramer

## Mentioned Aaron Task, Alan Mulally, Apple, BlackBerry, Bob Pisani, CNBC, Department of Justice, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Fannie Mae, Federal Reserve, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Jim Cramer, LG, Macworld, Morgan Stanley, Motorola, Nokia, Palm, RealMoney.com, Research In Motion, Samsung, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Steve Jobs, The Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com TV, UBS, Verizon, Wall Street Confidential

## Video description Cramer on techniques of market manipulation funds use. Some things to think about when trying to understand strange micro-trends.

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[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8)

中文简报

克莱默详述对冲基金如何操纵股价以保住年终薪酬 由于监管机构未能理解日内市场运行机制,对冲基金经理在年底结算期前常态化地捏造谣言并操纵期权流以打压股市。 在《华尔街机密》(Wall Street Confidential)中与亚伦·塔斯克(Aaron Task)的坦诚对话里,吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)拆解了对冲基金用来操纵市场价格并保住年终奖金的激进幕后策略。结合自己的对冲基金职业生涯,克莱默详细描述了基金经理们如何利用相对较少的资金误导股指期货,通过主动打压买盘砸跌黑莓(Research In Motion)等知名股票,并在大型产品发布会前结合适时的看跌期权策划耳语谣言以打压苹果公司(Apple)。他解释称,短期价格发现机制与真实的盈利状况根本脱节,机构参与者编造市场叙事,利用媒体关系,并钻了监管机构不懂现代市场底层机制的空子。此外,克莱默还提到了阻止对福特汽车(Ford)发表负面报道的投行业务利益冲突,并指出束手无策的美联储官员最终将被迫降息。 对冲基金操盘手经常动用500万至1000万美元的资金操纵盘前股指期货,人为制造早盘拉升,随后在日内顺势砸盘。 (0:04) 年终业绩薪酬机制迫使对冲基金打压基本面强劲的股票,以捍卫空头仓位并防止客户赎回。 (1:41) 针对苹果和黑莓等高流动性股票的空头突袭,是通过在多个交易部门散播虚假小道消息,同时将看跌期权订单分散至不同经纪商来协同实施的。 (3:36) 投资银行会主动封口研究分析师,禁止其对福特等陷入困境的公司发布看空评级,以捍卫利润丰厚的承销和投行服务费用。 (8:12)

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 该视频由 YouTube 频道 Cats Meow Trading 于 2020 年 4 月 5 日发布。视频内容选自早期的《Wall Street Confidential》节目,页面简介指出这是吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)深入揭露对冲基金操纵市场机制与手法的对谈,旨在帮助交易者理解盘面中出现的反常微观走势。 ## TL;DR 节目中吉姆·克莱默与主持人 Aaron Task 深入剖析了对冲基金在幕后操纵市场的阴暗手段。克莱默详述了如何仅动用数百万至千万美元资金在盘前撬动股指期货以定调全天情绪,并揭露基金在年底考核关头如何通过期权异动、盘口暴力砸盘及联络财经媒体记者散布虚假利空,蓄意做空黑莓(RIM)与苹果等核心标的。此外,克莱默还揭批了华尔街投行因天量承销佣金利益而对福特等巨头的财务危机集体噤声的内幕,展现了完全脱离基本面的华尔街控盘潜规则。 ## Atmosphere & style 整个对话呈现出一种毫不避讳、近乎冷酷的“华尔街老手拆台”氛围。克莱默神态自若、语气露骨甚至带有些许讽刺与炫耀,以第一人称操盘经验彻底撕开资本市场的温情面纱;主持人 Task 适时抛出追问与质疑,更反衬出克莱默揭露操纵手段时的直白与冷峻。整段交流节奏紧凑、内幕感极强,给听众带来一种窥探金融灰色交易与残酷博弈的强烈震撼。 ## Bulletin - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=4s) 吉姆·克莱默揭露对冲基金利用仅 500 万至 1,000 万美元的低成本在盘前操纵股指期货,通过“先拉高后砸盘”(boost and fade)制造虚假情绪并打压市场以配合空头仓位。 - [01:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=94s) 在年终考核与盯市结算的关键节点,对冲基金会故意散布虚假利空,并动用 1,500 万至 2,000 万美元暴力砸穿黑莓(RIM)等核心权重股的买盘,以击垮多头联盟。 - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) 对冲基金通过向六大投行买入虚值看跌期权制造大单异动假象,并利用苹果的保密文化向财经媒体虚构运营商违约谣言,打压股价后反手抄底现货。 - [08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=492s) 投行与企业间的承销佣金利益输送导致分析师无法客观唱空福特等陷入财务困境的公司,而监管放松进一步助长了这一内幕潜规则。 ## Key takeaways - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=4s) 撬动盘前股指期货的资金门槛极低,对冲基金仅需投入 500 万至 1,000 万美元即可影响开盘走势并主导全天市场情绪。 - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=4s) 按日盯市(mark-to-market)制度迫使对冲基金在日内采取“冲高回落”等合法边缘的操纵手法来迅速提振账面收益。 - [01:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=94s) 在年终业绩考核窗口仅剩数日的极端情况下,对冲基金为了保住提成甚至基金生存,会不择手段合力打压大盘支柱股。 - [01:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=94s) 操盘手通过连续“hit the offer”强行砸穿盘口买单,即便消耗千万级美元也要彻底击溃多头抱团联盟。 - [01:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=94s) 对冲基金会违规向财经媒体记者与电视主播释放虚假利空新闻,利用监管层(SEC)难以取证的盲区完成舆论造势与控盘。 - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) 苹果因严守未发布产品保密协议且从不主动辟谣,反倒成为对冲基金捏造运营商合作破裂谣言的最佳做空标的。 - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) 通过在多家顶级经纪商分散买入虚值看跌期权,操盘手能以极小成本伪造“内部知情人士抢先砸盘”的恐慌信号诱导市场跟风。 - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) 对冲基金的典型套路是先制造虚假事实砸低股价从期权获利,随后在底部反手抄底现货以迎接真实基本面催化剂实现双向收割。 - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) 当处于对冲基金做空模式时,“事实”往往成为阻碍,操盘的核心在于通过制造“虚构的现实”来驱动市场价格匹配仓位。 - [08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=492s) 福特将天量投行业务许诺给华尔街大行,导致股票研究分析师为保住年底奖金而对福特的真实负债危机保持沉默。 - [08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=492s) 监管强人斯皮策离任转任州长削弱了对利益冲突的威慑,促使华尔街投行与研究部门的合谋行为迅速死灰复燃。 - [09:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=567s) 即便黑莓(RIM)财报基本面极佳,由于正值年底业绩提成线(grid)考核期,持空头的机构依然会全力压制其股价反弹。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=4s) 利用小额资金与股指期货操纵开盘情绪 主持人 Aaron Task 在《Wall Street Confidential》节目开场时欢迎嘉宾 Jim Cramer,并指出当天公布了经济数据,但在盘前股指期货上再次出现了明显的“误导性走势”——期货盘前拉高,但随后现货市场却直接被砸了下去。针对 Aaron Task 询问这是否仅仅是假日交易清淡所致,Jim Cramer 毫不掩饰地披露了对冲基金常见的盘前操纵手法。Cramer 回忆自己在经营对冲基金时,如果手中持有大量空头头寸、迫切需要市场整体下跌,他就会在开盘前制造虚假交易量来撬动股指期货。他直言这根本不需要多少本钱:过去可能只需投入 500 万美元资本,而在规模更大的现阶段市场,或许 1,000 万美元就能彻底打压标的。反之,如果需要营造虚假繁荣的多头气氛,基金也可以用同样的资金量在盘前拉抬一篮子股票。 Jim Cramer 进一步拆解了这种日内短线打压策略的心理机制:基金先在盘前或盘初推高期货,诱导市场以为走势良好,待到真正的现货抛盘涌入时再顺势向下打压(fade)。这种高开低走的走势会给全天定下极度疲软、负面的心理基调。Cramer 露骨地评价道,这对按日盯市(mark-to-market)计算净值的对冲基金来说是非常划算且令人满足的赚钱手段,甚至放言:“I would encourage anyone who's in the hedge fund you to do it because it's legal right and it it is a very quick way to make money and very satisfying.” 当主持人指出全世界几乎没有其他同行会公开承认这种手段时,Cramer 直言自己根本不在乎,虽然不敢在电视直播节目上公然宣讲,但在这里可以畅所欲言。 - 操纵股指期货所需的资金量极低,以往约 500 万美元,即便在膨胀后的市场也只需大约 1,000 万美元。 - 策略核心在于“拉高后反手打压”(boost and fade),利用开盘冲高回落的走势制造强烈的全日看跌情绪。 - Cramer 强调这种盘前资金诱导在日内估值结算中非常有效且属于合法边缘的操作。 ### [01:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=94s) 虚构事实与打压关键权重股 RIM(黑莓) 当主持人 Aaron Task 提到如今市场上对冲基金数量远超以往、是否加剧了市场波动时,Jim Cramer 指出对冲基金与只能做多的共同基金不同,对冲基金普遍重仓做空。尤其是距离年终或考核结算仅剩最后六天的时候,为了保住业绩提成甚至基金的生死存亡,经理们必须不择手段地压制大盘,绝不能让指数反弹。此时,对冲基金会集中所有火力猛砸当天的市场核心支柱(fulcrum)。在当时,加拿大黑莓手机制造商 RIM(Research In Motion)就是整个市场的关键风向标。 Cramer 坦承,在此类存亡关头,对冲基金会故意散播恐慌甚至违法编造虚假信息。尽管证券法规严禁“煽动”(foment)或蓄意散布关于某家公司的负面谣言来制造打压假象,但许多对冲基金依然照做不误,因为美国证券交易委员会(SEC)根本搞不懂这些隐蔽操作。操纵盘口时,操盘手会连续扫掉买盘:如果要推高价格就连续“吃单并挂高买价”(take and bid),如果要砸盘就疯狂“对准买单砸出抛盘”(hit the offer)。为了击垮 RIM 这样的大盘股,虽然可能要耗费 1,500 万到 2,000 万美元,但其带来的连锁反应极佳——能直接打垮所有抱团做多 RIM 的多头同行。 更恶劣的手段在于舆论战。基金经理会主动致电《华尔街日报》等媒体“水平较差的二流记者”(bozo reporter),恶意爆料假新闻,谎称竞争对手 Palm 推出了能够彻底击杀黑莓的杀手级产品并打算免费赠送,同时联动 CNBC 记者 Bob Pisani 等知名财经评论员,让全市场都在讨论“RIM 出大问题了”。Cramer 总结道,当一家基金处于生死边缘时,这种抹黑是家常便饭,如果不敢这么干,根本就不该留在对冲基金这个行业里。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 击垮权重股黑莓 RIM 的市场操纵全流程 accDescr: 展示对冲基金如何通过盘口暴力砸盘、媒体散布虚假谣言以及电视连线放大恐慌来打压核心股票 subgraph Capital["资金与盘口打压"] A["动用 1500万至 2000万美元 弹药"] --> B["连续 Hit the Offer<br>暴力扫穿多头买盘"] B --> C["重创黑莓 RIM 股价<br>击溃市场核心支柱与多头同盟"] end subgraph Disinformation["舆论造势与制造假象"] D["违规煽动 Foment<br>编造基本面虚假利空"] --> E["致电媒体二流记者<br>捏造 Palm 推出黑莓杀手新品"] E --> F["联络财经主播与记者 Bob Pisani<br>在 CNBC 等电视直播中扩散恐慌"] end C --> G["形成螺旋式恐慌下跌<br>实现年终考核压低指数的目的"] F --> G ``` - 年终考核仅剩六天的关键窗口期,对冲基金必须压低市场以确保结算分红。 - 砸盘操盘手法核心:连续“hit the offer”,在盘口上一旦发现多头买单(bid)立即以大单直接吃掉。 - 散布黑莓 RIM 将被对手 Palm 免费送手机打垮的虚假行业黑料,操纵媒体舆论配合空头收割。 ### [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) 猎杀苹果:期权挂单、假传运营商违约与虚假新闻链条 随后两人将话题转向当时市场关注的另一大焦点——苹果公司(Apple)。Jim Cramer 毫无保留地剖析了如何全方位做空并猎杀苹果。他指出,当时临近旧金山 Macworld 大会,散布虚假传言极其容易。核心谣言有两个:一是谣传苹果的首款手机(初代 iPhone)根本赶不上在 Macworld 发布;二是谎称两大主流运营商 Verizon 和 AT&T 已经明确拒绝与苹果合作。因为写苹果报道的科技记者极度渴望独家爆料,而苹果公司对未发布产品向来奉行“不予置评”的严格保密文化,这使得造谣者几乎没有任何被当场拆穿的风险,苹果因而成了“最理想的做空标的”。 Cramer 现场模拟了这套操盘剧本:基金经理直接抓起电话打给六家顶级投行的交易柜台(trading desk),神秘兮兮地谎称自己刚跟 Verizon 的内部高层通完电话,对方明确表态“我们是 LG、三星和摩托罗拉的地盘,没有苹果的立足之地;苹果要价太高,我们绝不会让他们像垄断音乐行业那样染指电信市场”。与此同时,为了让利空显得真实可信,基金会动用少量资金操纵衍生品市场。当时苹果股价在 84 至 85 美元左右,操盘手会分别通过摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和瑞银(UBS)等不同经纪商,大举买入数千张次年 1 月到期、行权价为 80 美元的深度虚值看跌期权(January 80 puts),刻意制造出“知情人士正大举建仓看跌期权以博弈下周突发暴跌”的恐慌假象。随后,交易员立刻打电话给 CNBC 的 Bob Pisani 渲染大单异动,将这套谎言通过电视直播扩散至全美散户与机构。 面对主持人关于黑莓等公司基本面其实非常强劲(刚刚交出亮眼财报)的质疑,Cramer 冷酷地驳斥了基本面决定论,道出了华尔街最阴暗的运作法则:“So what's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view, right? That it's important to create a new truth to develop a fiction.” 他指出,只要能把股价从 85 美元砸到 80 美元,空头不仅能从看跌期权上赚取暴利,还能在底部反手大举买入股票现货,从容等待 Macworld 大会发布手机时反向做多大赚一笔。最后,针对当天公布的疲软经济数据与美联储降息预期,Cramer 透露机构同样会打电话诱导债券分析师忽略真实行情,掩盖美联储既害怕经济失控又担心过快降息导致政策“朝令夕改、形同墨西哥”的尴尬困境。 - 做空苹果的操作手法:虚构电信运营商拒签协议(声称运营商独尊 LG、三星与摩托罗拉,阻击苹果入侵),利用苹果官方不辟谣的公关政策制造恐慌。 - 期权诱导战术:在苹果 84-85 美元区间动用极少资金分散在摩根士丹利、瑞银买入 January 80 看跌期权,伪造内部人知情抢先看跌的表象。 - 操纵闭环三步法:先向经纪商大额下单诱空,再向平面媒体财经记者放料,最后联动 CNBC 等电视财经媒体实时报道,完成闭环收割。 - 资金反手策略:用虚假利空把苹果砸到 80 美元行权价后,空头获利平仓并反手抄底现货,借随后的 Macworld 实际利好双向通吃。 ### [08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=492s) 投行利益捆绑与福特的真实财务困局 在探讨潜在的市场触发风险时,主持人 Aaron Task 提到两人本周早些时候的交流,指出吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)曾预判市场可能会出现某种危机,而福特汽车(Ford)极有可能成为这一导火索。克莱默随即揭开了华尔街投行与大型企业之间心照不宣的利益纽带:福特此前为了融资,将几乎所有的投资银行业务都许诺给了各大知名投行,这意味着福特很可能是 2007 年全华尔街最大的一笔投行业务来源。正因如此,各家大行的分析师们在发表看空研报时变得极其顾忌,根本不敢公开发表负面言论,导致市场上针对福特真实经营风险的看空逻辑很难按常理展开。克莱默生动地模拟了投行企业融资部对研究分析师的施压过程:银行家会拍着研究员的肩膀暗示说,自己刚与福特新任 CEO 艾伦·穆拉利(Alan Mulally)通过话,拥有内部一手消息证实重组计划切实可行;而正值年底奖金发放季的研究员为了自己的钱包,绝不可能傻到去砸自家投行的饭碗,正如吉姆·克莱默所言:“It's Bonus Time, I'm not gonna be a total idiot, the Spitzer's going to Albany, well let's get back in the game right?” 随着纽约州总检察长艾略特·斯皮策(Eliot Spitzer)即将离任前往奥尔巴尼就任纽约州长,华尔街此前受到严厉监管压制的研究与投行合谋套路,正迅速死灰复燃。 谈及福特与通用汽车(GM)的对比,克莱默进一步澄清了市场误区。一年前的同一时期,市场上铺天盖地都是通用汽车即将破产的传闻,然而通用的股价随后却逆势反弹了近 50%。克莱默直言两者的资产负债表存在本质区别:事实证明通用的财务状况并未真正恶化到不可救药,但福特的资产负债表则是“惨不忍睹”(pathetic)。福特甚至不惜为了保护债券持有人而彻底牺牲普通股股东的利益;克莱默讽刺道,如果换作是一家名不见经传的外国普通公司搞出这种资本运作,市场早就直斥其陷入了穷途末路,但仅仅因为它是“福特”——一个承载着美国工业情感、几代人曾经拥有过的民族品牌象征——华尔街和公众就自欺欺人地戴上了温情滤镜。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Wall Street Conflict of Interest and Ford Narrative accDescr: Diagram showing how investment banking fees silence research analysts and prop up Ford stock narrative. subgraph CapitalDeal["资本与投行利益输送"] A["福特汽车 (Ford)<br/>许诺2007年天量投行业务"] --> B["华尔街投行企业融资部<br/>锁定巨额承销佣金"] end subgraph InternalPressure["研报与监管套利"] B --> C["施压股票研究部门<br/>'穆拉利的重组方案有效'"] D["监管退潮<br/>斯皮策调任奥尔巴尼"] --> E["分析师年底奖金驱动<br/>放弃发布负面评级"] C --> E end subgraph SentimentCover["市场情绪与叙事维护"] E --> F["压制看空声音<br/>掩盖资产负债表恶化"] G["美国民族品牌情怀<br/>'我也曾开过福特车'"] --> F end ``` - **投行巨额佣金封口**:福特将庞大的投行承销业务承诺给华尔街各大机构,直接剥夺了分析师客观唱空福特的空间。 - **监管预期放松**:曾经以重拳整治华尔街分析师利益冲突闻名的纽约总检察长斯皮策转任州长,分析师与投行重拾灰色默契。 - **福特与通用基本面差异**:通用汽车的实际资产负债表好于预期,而福特为了优先偿付债券不惜牺牲普通股股东利益,财务结构极其脆弱。 --- ### [09:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=567s) 年底冲业绩与对冲基金的控盘逻辑 克莱默随后将话题拉回他在《华尔街内幕》(*Wall Street Confidential*)节目中的核心初衷:这档日内交易节目的意义,就在于彻底揭露对冲基金操盘室里的真实运作内幕,告诉普通投资者盘面上那些看似不可思议的异动背后究竟有什么猫腻。他以黑莓制造商 RIM(Research In Motion)为例进行了深入剖析:RIM 刚刚交出了一份惊艳全场的季度财报,利润率极为强劲,核心竞争对手纷纷掉队退场,基本面堪称完美,单日大涨 6 美元完全合情合理。然而,当时恰逢周五,距离年底基金经理结算业绩指标(grid)仅剩最后五天;对于那些手握空头头寸或未能建仓的对冲基金经理而言,任由 RIM 这样的大盘科技股暴涨将彻底毁掉他们全年的分红与考核指标,因此他们必然会动用资金在盘中全力压制打压。对此,吉姆·克莱默斩钉截铁地反问并断言:“Can you really risk having RIM up this much? I don't think you can.” 在节目尾声,主持人 Aaron Task 与克莱默谈及假期的安排与年终大盘的点位预测。克莱默提到,两人下周都将休假,直到 2007 年元旦后回归。针对道琼斯指数的年终收盘目标,克莱默坚信大盘会收在他此前预言的 12,460 点附近;就在前一天,市场实际点位距离他的这一预测目标仅仅相差 20 点,他非常希望能精准命中。当被问及对 2007 年全年的大盘走势有何预测时,克莱默卖了个关子,表示自己不会在节目中用一两句话草率带过,而是会在 RealMoney.com 网站上通过连续五天的深度系列专栏向读者详细拆解。随后,Aaron Task 感谢了克莱默的分享,并向观众预告关注 TheStreet.com TV 的后续精彩内容。 - **RIM 业绩与盘面博弈**:RIM 财报基本面爆表理应大涨,但因年底考核在即,空头及对冲基金绝不敢放任其自由冲高,必然出手遏制涨势。 - **年底业绩考核线(Grid)**:对冲基金在自然年最后几个交易日的首要目标是保住或冲刺业绩提成档位,个股交易往往完全脱离基本面逻辑。 - **道指收盘点位预测**:克莱默坚持此前给出的道琼斯工业平均指数年底收于 12,460 点的判断,前一日盘中距离该目标仅差 20 点。 - **2007 年展望规划**:克莱默将于 RealMoney.com 推出为期五天的跨年市场宏观预测系列专栏。 ## Notable quotes > [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8&t=216s) So what's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view, right? That it's important to create a new truth to develop a fiction. — Jim Cramer ## Mentioned Jim Cramer, Aaron Task, Wall Street Confidential, RIM, 苹果公司, Palm, 华尔街日报, Bob Pisani, CNBC, Verizon, AT&T, Macworld 大会, 三星, 摩托罗拉, LG, 摩根士丹利, 瑞银, 美国证券交易委员会, 美联储, 福特汽车, 通用汽车, 艾伦·穆拉利, 艾略特·斯皮策, RealMoney.com, TheStreet.com TV, 道琼斯工业平均指数 ## Video description Cramer on techniques of market manipulation funds use. Some things to think about when trying to understand strange micro-trends. WeBull Referral Link: https://act.webull.com/i/PgfaQC6Plh9w/okt/ BTC Address: 1Nsj51rwaXVqu2v1kVx6AZX1EJg8tjDdsx Twitter: https://twitter.com/catsmeow492 Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/catsmeow492 #Stocks #StockTrading #OptionsTrading #StockMarket #DayTrading #SPY #StockMarketCrash [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyaPf6qXLa8)

Source quotes

[3:36] Jim Cramer: So what's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view, right? That it's important to create a new truth to develop a fiction.

Source quotes

[3:36] Jim Cramer: So what's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view, right, that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction. [1:41] Jim Cramer: you can't foment, you can't create a yourself an impression that a stock's down, but you do it anyway because the SEC doesn't understand it.

Original transcript

[0:04] welcome to wall street confidential I'm [0:06] Aaron task joining in by Jim Cramer Jim [0:08] welcome good to see you [0:09] thanks for being here uh economic data [0:12] today but I want to talk about something [0:13] else first again today we have the [0:15] misdirection from the future as the [0:17] futures probably up market and as of [0:18] right now it's knocked you down again is [0:20] this just because it's the holiday [0:21] period that we're seeing this you know a [0:23] lot of times when I was short at my [0:25] hedge fund and I was positioned short [0:27] meaning I needed it damn up I would [0:31] create a level of activity beforehand [0:35] that could drive the futures it doesn't [0:36] take much money [0:38] similarly if or if I were long and I [0:41] would want to make things a little bit [0:42] rosy I would go in and take a bunch of [0:44] stocks and make sure that they are there [0:46] higher you know maybe commit five [0:47] million in capital do it and I could [0:49] affect it what you're seeing now is [0:51] maybe it probably is bigger market now [0:53] maybe you need ten million in capital [0:54] and knock the stuff down but it's a fun [0:56] game and it's a lucrative game and you [0:58] you can move it up and then fade it [1:00] that's all often creates a very negative [1:02] feel so let's say you take a longer-term [1:04] view intraday and you say listen I'm [1:06] going to boost the futures and then when [1:07] the real sellers come in real market [1:09] comes in they're going to knock it down [1:10] that's going to create a negative x [1:11] negative view that's a strategy very [1:14] worth doing when you're VAT when you're [1:16] valuing on a day to day basis and I [1:17] would encourage anyone who's in the [1:19] hedge fund you to do it because it's [1:21] legal right and it it is a very quick [1:24] way to make money and very satisfying [1:26] okay by the way no one else in the world [1:29] would ever admit that but I didn't care [1:30] that's right and you can say that here [1:31] in Cannes I'm not gonna say it on TV [1:34] well I don't know there's so many more [1:36] hedge funds today than your I imagine [1:38] your hats right do you think that that [1:40] does that exacerbate the moves or does [1:41] it the hedge funds position won't short [1:44] okay not just long with mutual funds so [1:46] it's really vital these next six days [1:48] because of your payday you've really got [1:50] to control the market you can't let it [1:52] lift when you get a research in motion [1:53] it's really important to use a lot of [1:55] your firepower to knock that down [1:57] because it's the fulcrum of the market [1:58] today so I mean let's say I were I was [2:01] sure what I would do is I would hit a [2:02] lot of guys with rim [2:03] now you can't ferment that's a violation [2:06] of vermin yeah you can't foment you [2:09] can't create a yourself an impression [2:12] that a stock's damn [2:14] but you do it anyway because the SEC [2:15] doesn't understand it so yeah I mean [2:17] it's that's the only sense that I would [2:19] say there's a legal but a hedge fund [2:21] that's not up a lot really has to do a [2:23] lot now to save itself so this is [2:26] different from what I was talking about [2:27] the beginning where I would be buying [2:28] the queues and stuff this is actually [2:30] just a lately illegal but when you have [2:32] six days and your company may be in [2:33] doubt because you're down I think it's [2:35] really important to ferment if I were [2:38] one of these guys for men and oppression [2:40] that research and motion isn't any good [2:41] but this research promotion is the key [2:43] today so you know you would you would [2:44] hit this guy and that guy when you would [2:46] see an offering when you see a guy who's [2:48] bidding you'd wipe that that guy very [2:50] quickly the what I used to do was called [2:53] if I wanted to go higher I would take [2:55] him bid take him bid taking bid and if I [2:59] wanted galore I'd hit an offer hit an [3:00] offer hit an offer and I could get a [3:02] stock like rim for maybe that might cost [3:04] me 15 20 million an e to knock rim down [3:07] but it would be fabulous because it [3:09] would beleaguer all the more on longs [3:11] who also came on research in motion [3:14] today we're seeing that that's weekend [3:16] when your company's in a survival mode [3:18] it's really important to defeat research [3:21] in motion and get the Pazhani to the [3:22] world and people talking about it as if [3:24] there's something wrong with rim then [3:26] you would call the journal and you get [3:27] the bozo reporter and research in motion [3:29] and you would feed that there's a palms [3:30] got a killer it's gonna give away these [3:32] are all the things you must do on a day [3:34] like today and if you're not doing it [3:35] maybe you shouldn't be in the game [3:36] another stock that a lot of people are [3:38] focused on right now seems to be Apple [3:40] yeah it's very important to spread the [3:42] rumor that they both Verizon and belt [3:45] and ATT you decided they don't like the [3:47] phone right very easy one to do because [3:49] it's also you want to spread the rumor [3:50] that it's not gonna be ready for Mac [3:52] world and this is very easy because the [3:54] people who write about Apple want that [3:56] story and you can claim that it's [3:58] credible because she spoke to someone at [3:59] Apple because Apple isn't in it doesn't [4:01] right they're not gonna comment and I K [4:02] so it's really an ideal short and I [4:05] would again if I were a short Apple I [4:07] would be working very hard today to get [4:10] that and the way you would do that is [4:11] should pick up the phone you call six [4:12] trading desk and say listen I just got [4:14] off the phone with my contact at Verizon [4:15] and he has already said listen we're not [4:17] we're a lucky G house that we're Samsung [4:20] house we're a Motorola house [4:22] there's no room for Apple they want too [4:23] much that we're not gonna let them in [4:25] this is not we're not going to let them [4:26] do what they did to music and you know I [4:28] think that's a very effective way to [4:30] keep us doctor right well I might also [4:31] by the way because the stock at 8485 a [4:34] little bit of capital you go buy some [4:35] January and he puts that makes it look [4:37] like there's going to be something going [4:38] on so maybe you know give Morgan in [4:40] order to buy a thousand Jannetty puts [4:41] then you go position limit with you know [4:44] you use a hat firm that doesn't know [4:45] what that could still may be good at UBS [4:46] for puts and you just kind of create an [4:49] image that there's gonna be news next [4:51] week and that's gonna fight in everybody [4:52] then you get they all go out and say [4:54] larks put bar ups then they call Pazhani [4:56] again you have to use those guys and say [4:57] listen I'm about you know I see a big [4:59] buyer puts and I'm told that it's like [5:00] the it's si si [5:01] you would do that too um and these are [5:03] all off what's really going on under the [5:06] market that you don't see nobody else [5:08] talks about so what's important when [5:10] you're in that hedge fund mode is to not [5:12] do anything remotely truthful because [5:15] the truth is so against your view right [5:17] that it's important to create a new [5:19] truth to develop a fiction and the [5:22] fiction is developed by almost anybody [5:25] who's down like 2% top 6% here you can't [5:28] take any chances you can't have the [5:30] market up any more than it is if you're [5:31] up six because starting Jan 2 you'll [5:33] have all your money come out sometime [5:35] what would you do if you're in that [5:36] situation and you feel like you're [5:37] desperate is that you would do these [5:38] actions so you're talking about the [5:40] mechanics of the market is much more [5:42] important in the fun okay well but in [5:44] terms of the fundamentals even writing [5:45] about how you're pleased about the [5:46] fundamental research in motion just blew [5:47] out the court and Ryan but look like [5:49] people can do I mean that's fabulous [5:51] great thing about the market is has [5:52] nothing to do with the extra stuff right [5:54] now look over maybe two weeks from now [5:56] the buyers will come to their senses and [5:57] realize that everything that they heard [5:59] was a lie [5:59] but then again Fannie Mae lied about the [6:02] earnings for six billion dollars so [6:04] infection infection and I think it's [6:06] important for people to recognize that [6:07] the way that the market really works is [6:10] to is to have that nexus of of hit the [6:12] brokerage houses with a series of orders [6:14] that can push it down then leak it to [6:16] the press and then get it on CNBC that's [6:19] also very important and then you have a [6:21] kind of a vicious cycle down right it's [6:24] a pretty good game and it can be played [6:26] you pay for percenter to write and then [6:27] do you get long before Macworld the [6:29] expectation that the line is going to be [6:31] right [6:31] and then you go you look there's the [6:33] other side you know and there's the case [6:37] where I would say the January 80 puts [6:38] can be justified because after I've [6:39] knocked the stock down to 80 I can buy a [6:41] lot of common and then play it right in [6:43] the Mac world where they'll probably [6:44] introduce the phone and Verizon's gonna [6:45] take it okay well maybe the fundamentals [6:48] don't matter but let's like whatever [6:50] lies what Wall Street confidential is [6:52] yes is is not giving you the party line [6:55] oh here's the party line by the way on [6:56] the I I spoke that but the phone I hear [6:58] the phones are good and Verizon might [7:01] take it and as a matter of fact the [7:02] research and emotion sellers they I [7:04] don't think they know what they're [7:04] talking about even right the cell market [7:09] cell phone market you think is you don't [7:10] wanna bother them with a cell phone [7:12] market frankly is is the discussion were [7:14] killing each other you know right [7:15] someone has to take a dive motor role in [7:17] milk you have to get in a room and just [7:18] fix price [7:19] they've been reluctant to do that [7:20] because of the various Justice [7:22] Department's and because they actually [7:23] go right in there whoa that hasn't [7:25] stopped a lot of other companies the [7:27] sister this seems to be a case where [7:29] they seem to be directly worried about [7:31] the authorities it's almost as if they [7:33] have a lawyer that that matters and like [7:34] I said that bristol-myers lures and you [7:36] know what eventually happens is the [7:38] shareholders demand that you get phony [7:40] lawyers and you sit in the room it'll [7:41] happen soon [7:42] real quick and the Fed and numbers out [7:45] today weaker than expected how someone [7:46] is obviously got a cut but anybody can [7:48] you call Britt you call the various guys [7:51] who cover the bonds and you say to [7:53] ignore the bond action what's really [7:54] happened is the Fed is very frightened [7:56] about men you chin up the number that [7:57] they're really frightened about the Fed [7:59] is actually um desperate to try to [8:01] figure out you know how quickly they [8:03] have to cut without looking like dopes [8:05] that they've been talking about they're [8:07] worried about inflation all this you [8:08] don't want to raise in May and then cut [8:10] it in January you look like Mexico for [8:12] heaven's sake give me this is like a [8:13] distinguished group of people who went [8:14] to really good school right these are [8:16] smart guys when we were talking earlier [8:18] in the week you said you think it would [8:20] be some sort of crisis possibly Ford [8:22] being a trigger well you know for went [8:24] and did all that you know they pledged [8:25] all this investment banking to all these [8:27] guys so now that they're very reluctant [8:28] to say negative things it makes it much [8:31] tougher for the for story to play out I [8:33] mean the amount of business that Ford [8:35] has to do for maybe the big client of [8:37] 2007 so if I were in the corporate [8:39] finance firm I would say listen to the [8:41] research guy [8:42] eisah listen you know I spoke with [8:43] Malloy Lee I actually have [8:44] inside the plan works so then you're the [8:47] research kind Salem and what do I do [8:49] it's Bonus Time I'm not gonna be a total [8:51] idiot the Spitzer's going to Albany well [8:53] let's get back in the game right I think [8:56] that's important is it possibly because [8:57] a year ago this time a lot of people are [8:58] saying GM's about to go bankrupt and of [9:00] course the stocks up 50 cents per se [9:01] well there's the difference between Ford [9:06] and GM was the chance balance sheet was [9:07] never really turned out wasn't that bad [9:09] fourth balance sheets pathetic and you [9:11] know that because they were willing to [9:12] screw over the common for the bonds [9:14] that's kind of if it weren't for word if [9:16] this were um walk on we'd be saying [9:19] quality desperate you know but you know [9:21] it's for support it's an American III [9:23] 912 record you know I owned a Ford once [9:25] and this is our country well that's [9:27] right and Jim Cramer again you know what [9:29] I'm trying to go for in the wall street [9:31] confidential and I'm not saying you're [9:33] send me I have to talk about what it's [9:35] like at my hedge fund okay because and [9:38] what other hedge funds do because the [9:41] difference is is that if this is an [9:44] intraday show and you need to know [9:46] what's going what I know is going wrong [9:48] know we step back research in motion was [9:51] a real blowout quarter it was a really [9:53] good quarter and I was quite surprised [9:54] how strong the margins were it looks [9:56] like the other guys have really dropped [9:58] out it's a terrific story should it be [10:00] up six yeah I think so but you know look [10:03] where we are it's Friday you know you [10:05] got five more days to make your grid can [10:07] you really risk having RIM up this much [10:09] I don't think you can [10:10] okay and they're not and if I'm correct [10:12] you're off next week yes okay and I as [10:14] well so we'll be back in 2000 that we [10:17] finished the year 1260 because that's at [10:19] twelve thousand four hundred and sixty [10:21] because that's what I said but the [10:23] behavior was now yesterday we came in [10:25] and we were 20 points away from what I [10:26] predicted you know I want to nail it [10:28] do you have a forecast for 2007 yeah um [10:31] but I'm not gonna say that it's over a [10:33] series of five days some people have to [10:35] go get money come check it out real [10:36] money calm and Jim thanks very much for [10:39] being here I'm Aaron task stay tuned for [10:40] more the street comm TV [10:48] you