S&P 500 Gains 320% in Decade as Tech Profit Margins Reach 30%

标普500指数十年涨幅达320%，科技板块利润率达30% 美股市场的持续上涨仍牢固立足于强劲的盈利基本面而非非理性狂热，基本面增长因而成为企业估值的核心驱动力。 主持人深入剖析了为何当前股市的持续上涨是由强劲的盈利基本面而非单纯投机所支撑，并指出了关键行业在2026年第一季度的两位数盈利增长。他们探讨了增值税的实际推行现实，并研究了投资组合层面的税务策略，包括外国税收抵免的机制以及529大学储蓄账户的提前集中缴款方式。最后，团队梳理了适用于小型企业的退休账户选项，并详细说明了减持过度集中的单一股票持仓的高税效策略。 标普 500 指数近一年上涨 32%，但由于企业盈利增速快于股价上涨（科技与通信服务板块分别同比增长 45% 与 54%），其前瞻市盈率反而有所下降。 (0:00) 针对美国可能推行国家增值税（VAT）的担忧，专家指出因政治阻力及国税局（IRS）当前缺员 40%，政策落地难度极高，且从 Roth 转向传统退休账户也无法规避未来的消费税征收。 (11:00) 在应税账户中配置国际指数基金（VXUS）虽可享受约 7% 的外国税收抵免，但其约 40% 的股息属于非合格股息并按普通税率征税，抵消了试图进行税收套利的实际收益。 (18:50) 前期集中注资 529 大学储蓄计划能充分放大免税复利增长，且根据《SECURE 2.0 法案》，账户内未使用的资金终身最高可将 35,000 美元免税结转至受益人的 Roth IRA。 (24:20) 针对巨额盈利的单一集中持股，专家建议在年初提前分批止盈以留出全年税损收割（Tax-Loss Harvesting）的操作空间，切勿为了避税而承担单一股票大幅回撤的风险。 (30:45)

Ben Carlson, Bill Sweet, and Duncan Hill argue that while the stock market's relentless rally is grounded in corporate earnings rather than detached euphoria, individual investors must navigate significant structural tax inefficiencies and psychological traps when managing portfolio growth. Market Momentum Anchored by Fundamental Earnings (0:00) Addressing concerns that rising stock prices reflect irrational exuberance amid high government debt and geopolitical tensions, Ben Carlson contends that equities are tracking robust underlying business fundamentals. First-quarter 2026 reports showed S&P 500 earnings growing 25% year-over-year, driven by Communication Services at 54% and Technology at 45%, with tech margins near 30%. Because earnings have grown faster than share prices, the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio actually declined despite gains of nearly 30% since early 2025. From a historical perspective dating back to 1975, the index's recent 31% rolling 12-month return sits in the 88th percentile. While impressive, Carlson points out that one-year gains exceeding 40% have occurred 22 times over that 50-year span, highlighting that extended rallies are regular features of a market that delivered a 12.5% annualized return over five decades. Consumption Tax Debates and Account Over-Optimization Responding to listener fears that a future federal Value-Added Tax (VAT) could diminish Roth retirement accounts by taxing consumption at the register, Bill Sweet dismisses the immediate feasibility of such policy shifts. Sweet views a national sales tax as politically untenable in the United States, further noting that the IRS is understaffed by 40% and incapable of administering an entirely new transactional regime. Switching from Roth to traditional retirement accounts would not offer protection, as distributions would then face stacked income, VAT, and local consumption burdens. Sweet also cautions against over-optimizing asset locations for the Foreign Tax Credit when balancing funds like VTI and VXUS. Although international assets held in taxable accounts allow investors to recoup an average of 7% in foreign withholding taxes, foreign equities distribute about 40% of their dividends as ordinary income rather than qualified dividends. This higher tax drag generally cancels out any foreign tax credit arbitrage, making frequent cross-account rebalancing counterproductive. Strategic Vehicles: 529 Front-Loading and Small-Business Plans (24:20) For education funding, front-loading a 529 plan with sums such as $50,000 per child allows compound growth to do the heavy lifting over a 10-to-15-year timeframe. Sweet notes that accumulated investment returns can eventually account for up to 90% of total qualified distributions. Potential overfunding concerns are mitigated by SECURE Act 2.0 provisions, which permit rolling up to $35,000 of unused 529 balances lifetime per beneficiary into a Roth IRA. For small business owners and employees evaluating retirement coverage, vehicles like SEP IRAs offer contribution caps up to $72,000 for 2026, though employer non-discrimination rules mandate equal percentage contributions across eligible workers. Carlson and Sweet point out that the disparate contribution ceilings across solo plans, Health Savings Accounts ($4,400 individual cap), and individual Roth IRAs reflect decades of uncoordinated legislation rather than sound economic design, creating unnecessary friction for individual savers. Unwinding Concentrated Single-Stock Positions When liquidating highly appreciated individual stocks—such as an early holding in Applied Materials that surged from $4 to $440—Sweet advises against letting tax aversion prevent necessary risk reduction. High-performing single stocks carry severe historical drawdown risks, including single-day 20% drops or prior crashes exceeding 80%. A practical tax strategy involves selling tranches early in the calendar year to allow up to 11 months to harvest potential losses from new, diversified ETF investments to offset realized capital gains. Other structural tools can mitigate tax liabilities without paralyzing the investor. Gifting appreciated shares shifts the taxable gain to family members in lower income brackets (subject to kiddie tax rules), while Donor-Advised Funds (DAFs) bypass capital gains entirely while offering an upfront charitable deduction. More complex tools, such as exchange funds with 7-year lockups or variable prepaid forwards, provide diversification or downside protection but incur fee and liquidity trade-offs that require professional tax analysis. Ultimately, the hosts conclude that investors often jeopardize wealth by prioritizing tax avoidance over sound portfolio management. Whether navigating theoretical national consumption taxes or unwinding high-gain single stocks, focusing on fundamental earnings and disciplined diversification matters far more than attempting to micro-optimize tax codes.

Ben Carlson与嘉宾指出，美股近期强劲上涨并非脱离现实的非理性狂热，而是由坚实的企业盈利增长所驱动；投资者在面对宏观政策顾虑与具体财务规划时，应立足长期数据并避免因税收过度优化而损害整体财务收益。 盈利增长支撑美股估值与历史回报定位 (0:00) 针对市场关于地缘冲突与通胀令股市脱离现实的质疑，Ben Carlson反驳称股市最终追随盈利表现而非宏观杂音。标普500指数一年内上涨32%、三年涨86%，且2026年第一季度企业盈利同比增长25%，其中科技板块利润增长45%、通信服务增长54%（由Meta和Alphabet等巨头主导）。根据FactSet数据，企业盈利已连续六个季度实现两位数增长；由于盈利扩张速度超过股价涨幅，该指数的前瞻市盈率甚至出现下降，科技与通信服务的利润率分别稳定在约30%和20%。 长期复合收益表现与增值税政策考量 从历史长周期看，标普500指数自1975年以来的年化复合回报率为12.5%，1万美元本金已增值至420万美元以上，期间最佳12个月回报率为61%，最差为2008年金融危机时的-43%，近期的31%涨幅处于过去600多个滚动12个月区间的第88百分位。针对观众对美国可能推行增值税（VAT）并削弱Roth退休账户优势的担忧，Bill Sweet解释称，增值税作为在生产与供应链各环节逐级征收的全国性消费税，虽然在面临近2万亿美元预算赤字时引发讨论，但在现实中通过政治立法极难实现；且从Roth转至传统IRA不仅无法规避消费税，反而会导致未来取款时同时承受所得税与消费税的多重负担。 税控优化误区：外国税收抵免与529计划 (18:50) 在跨国资产配置与教育金储蓄方面，盲目进行税务套利往往收效甚微。Bill Sweet分析指出，部分投资者试图在应税账户中重仓国际股票ETF（如VXUS）以获取平均约7%的外国税收抵免（FTC），但由于国际股票仅有约60%的股息符合合格股息标准（美国股票ETF如VTI接近100%），其余40%按普通收入税率征税，这一抵免收益几乎被普通税负和调仓资本利得税完全抵消。相比之下，提前集中注资（Front-loading）529大学储蓄计划是极具效率的免税复利工具：在孩子年幼时向每人账户一次性投入目标金额（如5万美元），长期复利可使投资收益占到最终账户总额的90%，且根据SECURE 2.0法案，未用完的资金还可享有最高35,000美元的终身额度免税转入受益人的Roth IRA。 高额单一持仓减持策略与避免“税收牵着鼻子走” 对于小企业雇员及高集中度单一股票持有者，税收机制与去风险策略需要专业权衡。虽然小企业可通过SEP IRA（2026年上限为72,000美元或净收入的18%至25%，且要求雇主向所有符合条件的雇员按相同比例出资）或健康储蓄账户（HSA，2026年个人上限4,400美元）补充避税空间，但制度复杂性常使普通人无所适从。针对早期买入如应用材料（AMAT）从4美元涨至440美元、累积巨额未实现收益的单一重仓，主持人警告称单只股票历史回撤极大（AMAT曾出现86%与50%的历史回撤）。Bill建议可选择在公历年初卖出以获得11个月的税务对冲缓冲期、向低税率成年亲属赠予（受赠人继承成本基准并承担税负）、设立捐赠者建议基金（DAF）或参与锁定期为7年的交换基金（Exchange Funds），但强调切勿因为舍不得纳税而承担个股剧烈波动的毁灭性风险。 该节目强调，美国股市的高估值是由持续的超预期利润支撑的，而非毫无根基的投机；在个人财务管理中，应当优先构建简洁且多元化的资产结构，绝不可为了过度追求税收规避或等待特定心理价位，而违背控制单一资产风险的基本投资原则。

## Background 本期视频由 YouTube 知名财经频道 The Compound 于 2026 年 6 月 13 日发布，是其旗下问答节目《Ask The Compound》的第 222 期。节目中，主持人本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）与邓肯·希尔（Duncan Hill）携手 Ritholtz 财富管理首席财务官比尔·斯威特（Bill Sweet），围绕美股大涨背后的基本面逻辑、标普 500 指数历史回报、增值税可行性、海外税收抵免、大学教育储蓄、小企业退休金规划及暴赚集中持仓减持策略等观众热点财务问题展开全面解答。 ## TL;DR 节目首先从标普 500 逼近 7400 点的宏观现象切入，指出大盘上涨并非脱离现实的盲目狂欢，而是受到科技巨头强劲财报利润与稳健基本面的真实驱动，甚至自 2025 年初以来远期市盈率反而有所回落。随后，三位嘉宾详细拆解了增值税在美推行的巨大阻力、海外税收抵免在实操中的得失权衡，并力挺 529 计划的前期集中注资与 SEP IRA / HSA 的税务优势。最后，针对持有暴赚百倍应用材料（AMAT）股票的听众，比尔·斯威特提出了结合年初止盈、税损收割、家庭赠与及高阶金融衍生品的综合减持方案，并告诫投资者切莫让税收的尾巴摇了投资的狗，在游戏中胜出时应果断锁定战果。 ## Atmosphere & style 现场录制洋溢着轻松幽默且极具穿透力的美式金融对谈氛围，老友重聚纽约演播室的亲近感让硬核理财讨论变得生动而接地气。本·卡尔森的数据流分析、比尔·斯威特机智辛辣的税务军师视角，与邓肯·希尔适时的调侃互动相得益彰，不仅有车牌段子和牛仔发型的欢乐插曲，更有直击投资痛点的犀利金句。整期节目节奏明快、层次丰富，在专业严谨的财务框架与欢声笑语的调侃碰撞中，为观众带来了既具实操深度又充满智趣的视听体验。 ## Bulletin - [04:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=249s) 美股大盘持续走强并非脱离现实的纯概念炒作：标普 500 指数已连续六个季度实现双位数 EPS 同比增长，科技与通信板块利润强劲加速使大盘远期市盈率在指数上涨近 30% 的同时反而回落。 - [11:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=675s) 针对以增值税（VAT）替代联邦所得税的假想，专家指出因面临约 2 万亿美元财政赤字且缺乏政治可行性，短时间内几乎不可能推行，投资者也无需借道传统 TSP 对冲所谓的“双重课税”。 - [20:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1200s) 刻意在应税账户持有高股息海外股票（如 VXUS）以获取外国税收抵免并无明显超额收益，其优势会被较高的普通税率（非合格股息占比约 40%）及繁琐报税流程基本对冲。 - [34:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=2085s) 面对成本极低且翻倍百倍的单只暴赚集中持仓（如 AMAT），投资人应优先分批止盈锁定胜局，切忌受制于整数心结或“让税收之尾摇了投资之狗”。 ## Key takeaways - [06:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=393s) 标普 500 长期复利惊人：自 1975 年至 2026 年复合年化回报率达 12.5%，1 万美元本金历经 50 余年利滚利已增值至 420 万美元。 - [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=600s) 过去一年标普 500 约 31% 的涨幅位列 1975 年以来滚动 12 个月周期的第 88 百分位，虽处于历史高位梯队，但牛市启动期曾出现过超 60% 的极端涨幅。 - [04:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=249s) 企业基本面与经济体量并非等同概念，科技权重已占据大盘半壁江山，冷酷的市场核心唯有净利润驱动，大盘通过业绩超预期跑赢股价涨幅实现了估值消化。 - [11:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=675s) 推行全国性消费税/增值税在美面临极高政治阻力与征管摩擦，且将资金转入传统递延税账户也无法在未来避免消费环节税负。 - [20:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1200s) 过度追求外国税收抵免（Foreign Tax Credit）是典型的“分析瘫痪”，海外资产的高名义分红及非合格股息税率使跨账户税收套利性价比极低。 - [27:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1620s) 家庭教育储蓄不必过度死守 529 账户，在前期激进注资并享受长期免税复利后，转向普通应税账户能为家庭带来应对子女教育变故的关键资金灵活性。 - [25:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1500s) 近年大学学费通胀增速已低于整体 CPI，高校高昂的“标价”往往普遍存在约 50% 的隐性折扣，且 529 结余资金现已支持转入 Roth IRA（最高 3.5 万美元）。 - [28:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1720s) 不到 5 人的小型企业主通过设立 SEP IRA 或 Solo 401(k) 可大幅突破 Roth IRA 的年缴存上限，同时搭配 HSA 能进一步构筑三重税收优惠屏障。 - [31:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1890s) 减持成本极低的大额单只集中股票应首选公历年初大笔抛售，为后续 11 个月利用组合波动进行税损收割（Tax-Loss Harvesting）冲抵税负预留充分时间窗口。 - [31:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1890s) 高净值单票持仓减持可借助预付可变远期合约（VPFC）或交换基金（Exchange Fund）换取流动性与分散化，但必须承担相应融资利息或长达 7 年的锁定期成本。 - [31:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1890s) 赠与股票不会像遗产继承那样提升计税成本基数（Step-up in basis），但转移给低税率后辈卖出仍可降低家族综合税负；大额慈善捐赠更可实现免征资本利得税及大额扣除。 - [34:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=2085s) 投资决策应谨记“赢了游戏就该收手”，切勿为了少交税而承担暴跌腰斩风险，更不要执念于等涨到某个整数关口再出场。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=0s) 演播室现场开场与剧集议程速览 节目开场，本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）列举了一组令人瞠目结舌的美股数据：过去一年标普 500 指数上涨了 32%，过去三年上涨 86%，而在过去十年中更是累计暴涨 320%，折合年化复合回报率高达 15.5%。考虑到当前严峻的地缘政治局势、庞大的政府债务规模以及常规的市场基本面，这种涨势究竟合不合理？股市是否已经彻底与现实脱节？这正是本期节目要核心探讨的主题。本期节目由 The Compound Insider 赞助播出，两人身处位于纽约布赖恩特公园（Bryant Park）正对面的 The Compound 演播室进行面对面实地录制。本笑称邓肯·希尔（Duncan Hill）今天甚至为了现场录制特意打理了发型；邓肯则感慨由于很久没来纽约，能坐在演播室面对面录制感觉既特别又有些不可思议。 在本期节目中，他们将回答观众和听众发来的一系列硬核财务与投资问题：为什么美股今年能继续大涨？过去 50 年来最强劲的一年期回报表现如何？美国推行消费税（如增值税）是否不可避免？投资者该如何利用外国税收抵免（Foreign Tax Credits）？如何以最灵活的方式为子女储备大学学费？小企业主该如何规划养老退休金账户？以及持有应用材料（Applied Materials）大幅升值股票的投资者该如何优雅减仓。 - 标普 500 指数长期表现：过去 1 年上涨 32%，过去 3 年上涨 86%，过去 10 年累计上涨 320%（年化回报率 15.5%）。 - 官方互动通道：观众可将财务问题发送至 `askthecompoundshow@gmail.com`。 --- ### [01:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=101s) 本·卡尔森新书《风险与回报》及专属赠书活动 本·卡尔森此行来到纽约演播室的重要原因之一，是他推出了自己的新书《风险与回报》（*Risk and Reward*）。他在现场展示了新书样书，特别赞扬了幕后设计师丹尼尔（Daniel）打造的带有烫金细节的高级封面，以及制作团队的“图表小子”马特（Chart Kid Matt）精心制作的图表。书中收录了大约 52 张图表和数据表格，本形容这是一本极具视觉冲击力与可读性的书。 为了回馈节目听众，本宣布将开展专属赠书活动：未来 10 天内，听众只要向节目邮箱发送优质提问，本将亲自挑选出 10 个问题并在接下来两周的节目中予以回答，入选者即可获得他本人的亲笔签名版新书。唯一的要求是获奖者收到书后在亚马逊（Amazon）上留下一条客观书评。邓肯在一旁打趣提醒大家，如果问题能控制在一个自然段以内，会获得额外的加分。此外，邓肯还提到如果观众喜欢本的声音，这本书的有声书版本也是由本亲自录制的。本苦笑着回忆说，自己在录音棚里连续高强度录了整整两天，录完之后整个人“大脑像浆糊一样”，但总体而言是一次非常有趣的体验。 --- ### [03:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=180s) 标普逼近 7400 点：股市是否与现实基本面脱节？ 节目切入第一个听众提问。观众埃里克（Eric）来信表示，尽管知道这是一个极难回答的问题，但眼下的金融市场似乎与现实世界完全脱节——世界各地正爆发混乱的战争，国际油价与能源价格飙升，汽油价格逼近每加仑 5 美元，但标普 500 指数却在逼近 7400 点的历史高位。埃里克质疑道：我们是否正处于一种事后会被嘲笑的非理性繁荣（Euphoria）中？在宏观局势如此恶劣的背景下，支撑标普 500 涨到近 7400 点的基本面到底是否存在？ 本·卡尔森直截了当地给出了结论：当前市场并没有脱离基本面，恰恰相反，市场正在紧紧跟随基本面的脚步，强劲的财报基本面正是推动股市上涨的最核心驱动力。短期内市场有时确实会脱离理性提前透支预期，让人摸不着头脑，但眼下的行情绝非毫无支撑的盲目狂欢。 --- ### [04:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=249s) 财报数据拆解：科技巨头盈利加速与估值回落 本调出了多张由马特和 FactSet 制作的核心数据图表进行逐项论证。数据显示，2026 年第一季度的实际财报表现极为惊人：标普 500 指数整体实现了 25% 的同比利润增长；其中科技板块利润同比增长 45%，通信服务板块（以 Meta 和谷歌为权重核心）利润同比增速更是高达 54%，非必需消费品板块也录得 35% 的同比增幅。在营收端，绝大多数板块的混合营收增速均达到双位数，科技行业营收增速甚至逼近 30%。这已经是标普 500 连续第六个季度实现双位数的每股收益（EPS）同比增长，企业的盈利能力非但没有停滞，反而在进一步加速。 更不可思议的现象体现在估值端：大盘股的每股收益增长不仅远超中盘股和小盘股，而且自 2025 年初以来，尽管标普 500 指数上涨了近 30%，其远期市盈率（Forward P/E）反而出现了下降。本指出，这与英伟达（Nvidia）过去几年的表现如出一辙——股价在涨，但基本面盈利跑得比股价还要快，从而自行消化并拉低了估值倍数。此外，科技行业的净利润率维持在惊人的 30% 左右，通信服务板块也达到 20%。 本总结道：“股市是冷酷无情的，它唯一在乎的就是盈利，高过一切事物。”当被问及这是否纯粹是一场人工智能（AI）叙事驱动的行情时，本承认谷歌、亚马逊和 Meta 极其亮眼的业绩确实绝大部分由 AI 相关需求引爆。历史一再证明，股市预测基本面的胜率远高于唱衰的专家：无论是 2020 年 4 月疫情初期的强劲反弹，还是 2022 年 10 月通胀高达 9% 时市场无视“百分之百会衰退”的预言触底回升，股市都用真金白银给出了正确答案。邓肯也补充强调，经济并不等同于股市，整体经济可能在部分领域显露疲态，但股市中科技股的权重已占据半壁江山，这与传统经济的构成完全是两码事。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 财报盈利加速与估值消化机制 accDescr: 展示科技与通信巨头超预期业绩如何带动大盘盈利增速超过股价涨幅，进而促使市盈率下降的过程。 subgraph Macro["宏观地缘 vs 市场现实"] A["地缘冲突与能源油价飙升"] B["市场冷酷定价：以企业盈利为核心"] end subgraph Fundamentals["2026 Q1 基本面驱动"] C["科技板块净利润同比 +45%"] D["通信服务 Meta & Google 同比 +54%"] E["标普 500 连续 6 季度双位数 EPS 增长"] end subgraph Valuation["估值结果"] F["盈利增速跑赢股价涨幅"] G["标普 500 远期市盈率出现回落"] end A -.-> B B --> Fundamentals C & D & E --> F F --> G ``` - 2026 年 Q1 盈利增速：标普 500 整体同比增长 25%，科技板块增长 45%，通信服务板块增长 54%，非必需消费品板块增长 35%。 - 营收增长表现：科技板块营收同比增长接近 30%，大部分主要行业营收呈现双位数扩张。 - 估值背离奇观：自 2025 年初以来大盘涨幅近 30%，但因每股收益超预期加速，标普 500 远期市盈率不仅没有泡沫化扩张，反而实现下降。 - 净利润率水平：科技板块整体净利润率约 30%，通信服务板块约 20%。 --- ### [06:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=393s) 标普 500 历史回报测算：自 1975 年以来的惊人复合增长 随后两人探讨了观众马克（Mark）的提问。马克在核算个人净资产时心血来潮询问了 AI，想确认去年标普 500 超过 30% 的涨幅是否属于历史最高水平梯队，AI 回答其大致排在历史第 7 或第 8 位。本借此调侃道，越来越多观众开始把他们当成检验 AI 准确度的“人工事实核查员”，这说明理财顾问暂时还不会被 AI 完全取代。 为了更清晰地展示美股大涨的宏观维度，本拉出了自 1975 年以来的长期历史数据，并现场让邓肯猜测这 50 多年来标普 500 的年化回报率。邓肯保守地猜测为 7.5%，结果被本一口否定。真实数据显示，从 1975 年初到当年 4 月底，标普 500 指数的复合年化回报率高达惊人的 12.5%。这意味着，如果在 1975 年将 1 万美元投入标普 500 指数并长线持有，到今天这笔资金已经膨胀为 420 万美元。邓肯疑惑地提问，为何大多数财务规划师在为客户测算模型时通常只采用 7% 左右的收益率预估；本解释称，在做财务规划时，专业人士总是倾向于保持保守，尽量压低客户的预期，以便在面对未来市场的不可预测性时留出足够的安全边际。 - 自 1975 年至 2026 年 4 月底，标普 500 指数复合年化回报率约为 12.5%（远高于大众常规认知的 7%-8%）。 - 长期复利惊人案例：1975 年投入的 10,000 美元本金，经过 50 余年的利滚利，当前账面价值已达 420 万美元。 ### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=600s) 标普500指数过去一年回报率的历史排位与后市展望 Ben Carlson 回顾了标普500指数自1975年以来的滚动12个月总回报率数据。过去一年中，市场交出了约31%的强劲回报。从历史角度来看，这一成绩处于自1975年以来的第88个百分位（在600多个滚动周期样本中排在第73位），这意味着其表现击败了约90%的同期12个月周期。 尽管31%表现优异，但历史上仍有多次更为夸张的涨幅。最强劲的12个月回报率出现在1980年代初的大牛市初期，当时经历美联储引发的1981年与1982年接连衰退后，股市迎来火箭般爆发，单年回报曾高达61%。在考察的时间跨度内，12个月涨幅达到40%以上的情况出现过22次，达到50%以上的情况也发生过7次；而最差的12个月回报则是2008年全球金融危机期间的-43%。针对市场是否已充分计入盈利增长的问题，Ben 坦言无法给出定论，虽可能已有所透支，但当前市场的实际表现往往在大家认为涨势过头时继续走高。 - **最佳12个月回报**：61%（1980年代初走出连续衰退后的牛市启动期） - **最差12个月回报**：-43%（全球金融危机时期） - **过去一年表现**：约31%，位列1975年以来历史样本的第88百分位（样本排名前12%） - **超常大涨出现频次**：单年涨幅超40%出现过22次，超50%出现过7次 --- ### [11:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=675s) 增值税（VAT）假想与军人退休金（Roth vs. 传统 TSP）的税务辩论 节目引出听众“Frag”的提问。Frag 自称军人背景，他向同为退伍军人的 Ritholtz 财富管理首席财务官 Bill Sweet 请教：随着华盛顿智库和媒体对推行消费税讨论的升温，若美国未来转向以增值税（VAT）为主的税制，Roth TSP（节俭储蓄计划）是否会沦为“入金缴所得税、消费又被征收增值税”的双重课税陷阱？这是否意味着传统（Traditional）TSP 反而成了抵御所得税被消费税取代的最佳对冲工具？ 主持人借机调侃 Bill 在部队时的带兵风格。Bill 笑着回忆，部队每天清晨5点半集合点名宣读当日指令，但他自认风格温和友善，并非大喊大叫的严苛军官。针对增值税的概念，Bill 做了清晰拆解：美国现行的地方销售税通常直接施加在零售终端，而增值税则覆盖整条供应链，在生产制造和服务的各个流转环节分别对增值部分征税，最终均摊进商品价格中。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Sales Tax vs Value Added Tax Comparison accDescr: Displays how retail sales tax applies at the end consumer stage versus VAT distributed along the supply chain. subgraph ST["美国现行零售销售税 (Sales Tax)"] direction LR S1["原材料 / 供应链中间环节"] --> S2["零售商"] S2 -->|"终端全额征收销售税"| S3["终端消费者"] end subgraph VT["增值税体系 (VAT)"] direction LR V1["供应链输入端 (环节征税)"] --> V2["中间加工 / 方案生成 (环节征税)"] V2 --> V3["零售 / 终端交付 (环节征税)"] V3 -->|"税负分段流转吸收"| V4["终端消费者"] end ``` 针对增值税替代所得税的可行性，Bill 和 Ben 认为这在政治与实际操作上极难成行： - **替代成本高昂**：面对约2万亿美元的预算赤字，若要用增值税替代现行联邦所得税，税率必须定在20%到30%甚至更高。 - **政治阻力巨大**：任何共和党或建制派政客支持推行全国性销售税/增值税，基本等于“政治自杀”。美国现行所得税多由工资自动扣缴，人们痛感相对隐蔽，若日常消费处处显性加税，民意难以接受。 - **关税的前车之鉴**：此前针对进口商品征收的关税本质上就类似一种在抵港阶段追加的销售税，结果直接扭曲了物价并沿供应链传导（例如推高咖啡价格），效率极其低下。 - **对冲逻辑漏洞**：退一步讲，即便未来开征增值税，转投传统 TSP 也毫无优势——届时取款不仅要缴纳原本延缓的所得税，消费时依旧逃不掉增值税，税负反而更重。 --- ### [15:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=920s) 消费文化、制度摩擦与文化插曲：车牌标语之争 闲聊环节中，几人就美国各州与欧洲的税制文化展开对比。欧洲的高物价与高油价很大程度上归因于重税累加，而美国人偏好开大皮卡、吃巨无霸汉堡，这种消费习惯与高额消费税格格不入。Bill 还提到美国国税局（IRS）今年员工减少了40%，应付现行所得税申报尚且捉襟见肘，若再强推极其繁琐的增值税体系，无异于“向运转良好的经济齿轮里猛抓一把沙子”。当聊到福利国家模式时，大家认为在北欧小规模且同质化的国家或许可行，但直接套用到体量庞大、情况复杂的美国容易滋生欺诈和系统失灵。 谈及华盛顿特区时，Bill 抛出一个趣味话题：哪里的车牌口号最硬核？ - **华盛顿特区**："Taxation Without Representation"（无代表不纳税，暗讽特区没有国会投票权）。 - **新罕布什尔州**："Live Free or Die"（不自由毋宁死）。 - **反面典型**：新泽西州与康涅狄格州那被调侃为“尿黄色”或香槟色的车牌被一致评为最难看设计；几位嘉宾开玩笑称，在新泽西开车最开心的时刻就是看到“您正在离开新泽西”的路牌。 --- ### [18:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1100s) 海外税收抵免（Foreign Tax Credit）与资产布局策略 节目随后进入观众 Andrew 的实操财务咨询。Andrew（31岁）与其妻子（30岁）已积累了约60万美元的投资资产，其中约一半在应税经纪账户（Taxable Brokerage Account），另一半分布在各类 IRA 和 Roth IRA 退休账户中。他们的投资组合极其极简纯粹：50% 全球美国除外股票（VXUS）加上 50% 美国全市场股票（VTI）。 针对 Andrew 的核心疑问——**为了利用海外税收抵免（Foreign Tax Credit），是否应该刻意把国际股票（VXUS）集中放在应税经纪账户，还是在所有账户中都各按 50/50 比例平均配置？** 主持人首先称赞了该年轻夫妇极简高效的资产配置理念与卓越的储蓄积累，随后准备由 Bill 深入剖析海外税收抵免的底层运作逻辑与应税/免税账户之间的摆放策略。 ### [20:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1200s) 海外资产配置与外国税收抵免的得失权衡 针对听众关于海外资产该存放在普通应税账户还是税收优惠账户的疑问，Bill Sweet、Ben Carlson 与 Duncan Hill 展开了深入解析。若投资者在普通应税经纪账户中持有海外资产并收到分红，外国政府往往会先预扣部分税款。例如，一些税率极高的斯堪的纳维亚国家在资金汇出前就会先行扣税；而作为对等机制，美国国税局会为这笔已向外国缴纳的税金提供外国税收抵免（Foreign Tax Credit）。美国本土同样有类似的规则：如果非美国纳税人投资美股，通常会被预扣 20% 的税款，除非能够出具完整的证明文件并在美申报。若将这类海外基金（如剔除美国市场的全球股票基金 VXUS）放在应税账户中，投资者便能申报抵免来冲抵部分美国本土税负；但若将其置于 Roth IRA、传统 IRA 或 401(k) 等合资格退休账户中，由于这些账户本身具备免税或延税性质，就无法再申请税收抵免。 那么，为了这笔税收抵免特意把海外资产放在应税账户究竟能否带来实质性的收益改变？Bill 直截了当地指出，这往往并不会带来决定性影响（"does not move the needle"）。分析背后的收益与税率结构便能明了： 1. **股息率差异**：海外市场的股票估值（市盈率）普遍偏低，且海外企业不像美股公司那样热衷于股票回购，因而海外基金（如 VXUS）的股息率往往明显高于美股。 2. **合格股息比例（Qualified Dividend Ratio）**：美股公司的分红通常全额享受较低的合格股息税率（15% 或 20%，外加净投资收益税 NIIT）；而对于海外市场，通常仅有大约 60% 的股息属于享受优惠税率的合格股息，其余 40% 的分红则必须按更高的普通个人所得税税率纳税。 3. **税收套利的对冲**：虽然海外资产提供了更高的名义股息率，且外国税收抵免平均可覆盖约 7% 的扣税，但由于四成分红需要按高额普通税率纳税，两相抵消后优势并不明显。 由于外国税收抵免额度是相对固定的，而个人的边际税率是浮动的，因此高收入人群往往无法充分享受这项抵免带来的实际好处。对此，Ben Carlson 和 Bill Sweet 一致认为，过度钻研这种细枝末节纯属“分析瘫痪”（paralysis by analysis）。频繁调整资产存放位置还会面临产生资本利得税的阻碍，性价比极低。Ben 调侃道，虽然自己心理上很喜欢账户里收到分红的感觉，但纯粹从总回报和高税率的角度考量，如果真要在二者中做抉择，甚至更倾向于将这类高收益、低合格比例的海外资产塞进退休账户里，省去繁琐的税务烦恼。最终大家给出的建议是不要过度纠结，直接各配置一半或顺其自然即可；能纠结到这种细节程度的投资者，其财务状况通常已经十分优渥了。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 海外资产存放账户的税务考量 accDescr: 对比海外资产放在普通应税账户与合资格退休账户中的税务利弊 subgraph Taxable["应税经纪账户 (Taxable Account)"] T1["可申请外国税收抵免 (Foreign Tax Credit)"] T2["海外基金股息率通常更高"] T3["约40%的分红按普通个人所得税征收 (税率较高)"] T1 & T2 --> T_Result["高收益被较高税率与繁琐税务抵消，优势不明显"] end subgraph Qualified["合资格退休账户 (Roth / 401k / IRA)"] Q1["无法申请外国税收抵免"] Q2["账户内延税或免税增长"] Q1 & Q2 --> Q_Result["免除高额分红税困扰，无需每年反复调仓算税"] end ``` - **VXUS 基金特性**：作为不含美国市场的全球股票 ETF，其海外持仓市盈率普遍低于美股，且因海外公司较少进行股票回购，导致其现金分红收益率显著高于标普 500 等美股基金。 - **合格股息结构**：VXUS 等海外配置中仅约 60% 的分红享受美国合格股息优惠税率，另外 40% 需按普通所得税率（Ordinary Income）申报。 - **外国税收抵免**：平均而言，向海外政府缴纳的预扣税约占分红的 7% 左右，但这笔抵免在高收入者的应税账户中很难产生显著的超额收益。 --- ### [27:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1620s) 529大学教育基金与应税账户的灵活性权衡 节目随后转入听众 Matt 的来信提问。Matt 育有两个孩子，年龄分别为 8 岁和 6 岁。自孩子出生起，他便通过 529 教育储蓄计划中的目标日期基金（Target Date Funds）为他们准备大学学费。Matt 目前的财务状况非常扎实，已经顶格缴纳了 Roth 401(k)、IRA 以及 HSA，教育储蓄并未对退休和医疗保障造成任何挤压。他目前的设想是：在接下来的 1 到 3 年内，采取激进策略将每个孩子的 529 账户资金迅速集中注入到 5 万美元的水平；随后便停止向 529 追加资金，转向以自己的名义开设普通应税经纪账户进行长期投资。他希望通过应税账户换取更激进的权益资产敞口，并保持充足的资金灵活性，以防未来孩子不上大学或教育计划生变。 主持团队对这一普遍困惑表示高度共鸣。Ben 与 Duncan 指出，当前大量中年家庭在咨询中频繁表达出对“资金灵活性”（Flexibility）的渴望。虽然各类退休与税收优惠账户（如 401(k)、529）能够提供极佳的税收减免，但其规则通常极度死板——资金往往要被锁定到 60 岁之后，或者被严格限制在符合资格的高等教育支出上，否则就会面临高昂的罚款与补税。此外，529 计划内的投资标的通常是由州政府与合作机构预先设定的，可挑选的基金范围非常有限，无法满足部分投资者追求更广泛、更激进投资组合的需求。Matt 提出的“前期集中注资 529、后续转向普通应税账户”的混合策略，正是为了在享受税收复利与维持家庭资产调度自由度之间寻找最佳平衡。 ### [25:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1500s) 大学学费通胀与 529 计划的“提前集中注资” 三人深入讨论了大学储蓄面临的诸多不确定性。大家常问未来读大学到底要花多少钱，本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）打趣说，照这个趋势下去，10 年后可能一学期就得花“一百万美元”。不过 Ben 也指出，近期一张图表显示过去 10 年间总体消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀率其实明显跑赢了大学学费的上涨速度，学费涨幅终于开始放缓。针对有些人猜测“AI 是否会让大学变得毫无意义，甚至不用去读了”，Ben 直言这往往只是不想存大学学费的人找的借口；相反，他认为在 AI 时代，年轻人更倾向于宅在家里盯着屏幕、减少外出互动，线下大学生活的实体社交体验反倒会享受到更高的溢价。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 529大学教育金提前注资复利机制 accDescr: 展示将资金提前注入529计划并通过免税复利实现高额收益并提取的流程。 subgraph S1["启动投入阶段"] A["提前大额注资 (Front-Loading)"] B["部分州享前期税收抵免 (State Tax Deduction)"] A --> B end subgraph S2["账户增长阶段"] C["税收递延 & 长期免税复利 (Tax-Free Compounding)"] B --> C end subgraph S3["支取与剩余处理"] D["符合条件的教育支出: 免税提领"] E["结余资金: 转为Roth IRA (上限$35,000)"] C --> D C --> E end ``` 谈到大学储蓄策略，比尔·斯威特（Bill Sweet）强烈推崇“提前集中注资”（Front-loading）529 大学储蓄计划（529 plan）。Bill 故意开玩笑反讽说“我不喜欢它……我其实爱死它了”，因为将储蓄转移到受税收保护的账户并为子女提供长期复合增长，性价比极高。Bill 举例提到，自己当年上大学一年大约是 3 万美元，而母校现在的学费已经逼近 7 万美元。虽然标价高昂，但 Ben 补充说只要懂得规则，多数人实际支付的金额大概能打个对折（约 50% 折扣）。Bill 更是分享了真实客户案例：有客户由于启动极早，到支取 529 计划时，账户中约 90% 的资金都是投资收益，相当于依靠资本市场的复利给学费打了近一折（90% discount）。在纽约等特定州，529 既能享受州税扣除，合格提领时又完全免税，其税务优势堪比健康储蓄账户（HSA）；而且即使孩子最后没用完，如今法规还允许将最高 35,000 美元的余额转入受益人的 Roth IRA。 - **学费通胀动态**：过去 10 年整体 CPI 涨幅已反超大学学费涨幅，学费飙升势头有所放缓。 - **实际支付折扣**：大学所谓的“标价（Sticker price）”虚高，多数家庭实际自付成本仅有标价的 50% 左右。 - **免税复利威力**：极早注资的 529 计划在提领时可能出现 90% 均为投资收益的极端利好。 - **剩余资金出口**：过去两年出台的新规定允许每个受益人累计将最高 35,000 美元的 529 闲置资金滚存（Rollover）至 Roth IRA。 - **跨州搬家幽默**：对于为了免大学学费搬家去佐治亚州或田纳西州的提议，主持人调侃称除了像卫斯理·格雷（Wes Gray）搬去波多黎各那种为了避税的大动作之外，一般人绝不会为了税收优惠特意举家搬迁。 --- ### [28:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1720s) 小型家族企业的退休账户优化：从 SEP IRA 到 HSA 听众凯文（Kevin）来信求助：他在一家不到 5 名员工的家族企业工作，目前净资产的 10% 投资于 Roth IRA，其余资金全部放在普通应税经纪账户中；尽管他每年都顶格存满 Roth IRA，但总觉得自己没有把税务效率做到极致，想知道还有什么更优的退休账户选项。Ben 和 Bill 一致认为，对于小型企业而言，最直接的解决方案是开立简化员工养老金计划（SEP IRA）或 Solo 401(k)。 | 账户类型 | 适用对象与要求 | 核心缴款规则与额度 (数据源自对谈) | 税务特点与优势 | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **Roth IRA** | 个人投资者（有收入限制） | 每年最高存入 $7,000 | 税后资金存入，未来合格提领投资收益与本金完全免税 | | **SEP IRA** | 小型企业主及雇员（需同比例覆盖） | 雇主出资，上限最高可达 $72,000（或约薪酬的 18%~25%） | 极简化设立，大额税前抵扣，延迟纳税复利增长 | | **HSA (健康储蓄账户)** | 需绑定高免赔额健康保险计划 (HDHP) | 每年存入上限达 $4,400 | 三重税收优惠：存入税前抵扣、投资免税增长、医疗支出免税提领 | Bill 提醒道，小型企业设立 SEP IRA 有一个关键限制：雇主若要为自己注资，就必须按照相同的收入百分比为企业名下的合格员工进行出资，因此家族企业在决策时需权衡多名雇员的整体成本。此外，Bill 强烈建议 Kevin 考虑健康储蓄账户（HSA）——只要配置了高免赔额健康险（HDHP），每年可存入高达 4,400 美元，用于医疗费用提取完全免税，是绝佳的避税工具。对谈最后，主持人吐槽美国税法里塞满了各类参议员冠名的账户（如以威廉·罗斯命名的 Roth、SEP IRA、Solo 401(k) 等），名目繁多且功能重叠，不仅把税法越改越臃肿，也给普通投资者带来了巨大的选择障碍，未来确实迫切需要进行统筹整合与简化。 ### [30:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1800s) “斯威特-卡尔森 2028”税改构想与百万级暴赚个股的烦恼 节目在轻松的政治调侃中承接上一个话题。本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）指出当前的退休金制度极不合理：有人能通过各种企业计划向延税退休账户存入高达 7 万美元，而普通人存入 Roth IRA 却只能存 7000 美元左右。比尔·斯威特（Bill Sweet）随即打趣提出了两人的“2028 年竞选纲领”——推行全民储蓄账户（Universal Savings Account），将联邦储蓄计划彻底向大众敞开。他幽默地借用美剧《办公室》（The Office）中瑞恩（Ryan）创立的“WUPHF”做比喻：把所有分散账户合并到一张明信片大小的单一伞状架构下，彻底简化税法。 随后，邓肯·希尔（Duncan Hill）念出了本期最后一个、也是极具代表性的听众提问。听众约翰（John）表示，他的岳父多年前在应税经纪账户中以每股 4 美元的价格买入了应用材料（Applied Materials，代码 AMAT），如今该股已飙升至每股 440 美元，老人坐拥巨额未实现资本利得。如今老人打算开始减持，想知道有哪些减持策略可以合法降低资本利得税。老人育有 2 个子女和 3 个孙辈（其中一个孙辈有特殊需求），约翰询问是否可以利用信托或向后辈赠与股票来避税。主持人感叹这是典型的“大牛市烦恼”，但现实中确实不少人持有多年前几分钱成本的英特尔（Intel）、IBM 或微软（Microsoft），如今面对巨额税单进退两难。 ### [31:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1890s) 减持高度集中暴赚股的税务策略：从早春套现到前沿衍生工具 针对应用材料这种翻了百倍的单只股票，比尔·斯威特首先指出了潜藏的巨大回撤风险：该股在互联网泡沫破裂与次贷危机期间曾累计重挫 86%，在 2022 年暴跌 50%，过去其他动荡时期也曾回撤 43%。虽然它过去一年暴涨了 155%，但“任何能翻倍甚至百倍的股票，随时都可能被腰斩”。为了在控制市场风险的同时做好税务筹划，比尔提出了一套实操性极强的组合方案： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 集中持仓股票减持与税务筹划路径 accDescr: 展示了应用材料等暴赚单只股票在减持时的多种税务筹划手段与权衡 subgraph Phase1["策略一：年初大幅减持与全年税损收割"] A["1-2 月提前减持大笔持仓<br/>提前锁定巨额资本利得"] --> B["资金分散买入宽基 ETF / 组合"] B --> C["利用后续 11 个月市场波动<br/>收割亏损 (Tax-Loss Harvesting) 冲抵税额"] end subgraph Phase2["策略二：家庭赠与与慈善捐赠"] D["慈善捐赠 (如 DAF)"] --> E["免缴资本利得税<br/>获得高额慈善扣除额"] F["赠与子女 / 孙辈"] --> G["成本价转移 (无 Step-up)<br/>利用低收入后辈税率减免"] end subgraph Phase3["策略三：高阶机构避税工具"] H["预付可变远期合约 (VPFC)"] --> I["锁定未来卖出价并获得现金<br/>保留部分上涨空间 / 支付融资费"] J["交换基金 (Exchange Fund)"] --> K["多家不同集中持仓者拼盘互换<br/>换取分散化 / 需锁定 7 年"] end ``` - **早春兑现与税损收割（Tax-Loss Harvesting）**：在公历年的 1 月或 2 月果断抛售一大笔持仓，尽早锁定资本利得。这样做的好处是换回了一大笔现金用于分散配置（例如买入多种 ETF），同时在接下来的 11 个月里留出了充足的税务规划时间。一旦持仓中某些头寸在年内遭遇回撤，便可及时止损变现，利用产生的资本损失对冲年初的收益。 - **慈善捐赠与赠与税率差**：若直接向合格慈善机构或捐赠者建议基金（DAF）捐赠股票，投资者不仅无需为股票的巨额增值缴纳资本利得税，还能按股票市价获得全额慈善扣除；若将股票直接赠与子女或孙辈，必须注意**赠与并不会提升计税成本基数（Step-up in basis）**——“提高基数需要有人过世，我们可不会盼着长辈发生不幸”。不过，只要规避小童税（Kiddie Tax）的限制，将增值股票转移到边际税率更低的成年子女或后辈名下出售，全家总体的税负仍然会大幅降低。 - **预付可变远期合约（Variable Prepaid Forward Contract, VPFC）**：这是一种专业衍生品协议，持股人与机构约定在未来（如 18 个月或 2 年后）按特定价格区间交付股票。持股人当下即可提前拿到大部分现金用于多元化投资，保留一定幅度的上行收益空间，并延后税款清算。缺点是需要支付类似保证金利率的融资成本。 - **多空税损收割方案与交换基金（Exchange Fund）**：聘请专业管理人运行激进的多空投资组合（Long-Short Strategy），主动创造账面亏损来冲抵 AMAT 的收益。另一种方式是加入华尔街大型机构设立的交换基金，将 AMAT 与持有美光（Micron）、比特币（Bitcoin）、英特尔等其他集中持仓的投资人打包装入同一只基金，立即实现免税分散化。但交换基金的硬性代价是长达 7 年的锁定期。 ### [34:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=2085s) 交换基金、赠与子女与核心法则：别让税收之尾摇了投资之狗 虽然高阶工具层出不穷，但比尔和本强调，这类方案极为复杂，涉及专业管理费与下行风险，务必在专业财务顾问指导下进行。当邓肯询问如果他们处在当事人的位置会怎么做时，主持人们给出了十分务实的忠告。 比尔表示，自己更倾向于组合拳：赠与子女一部分（让税率较低的后辈分担税收）、年初大笔抛售配合全年的税损收割，到了 12 月若仍有剩余收益，再拿出一部分捐给公立图书馆或慈善基金。但绝不要为了追求极致避税而把事情复杂化，因为投资中最大的误区就是“让税收的尾巴摇了投资的狗”（Don't let the tax tail wag the dog）。 比尔给所有投资人提出了一句金玉良言：“如果你已经赢了游戏，就该果断收手”（If you won the game, it's time to stop playing）。个股没有永远的神话，20 世纪 80 年代通用汽车（General Motors）和施乐（Xerox）曾是无可匹敌的蓝筹霸主，但其后股价都曾崩跌 90%。哪怕是在前一年大涨 155% 的强势股，一天之内毫无征兆地下跌 20% 也是完全可能的。 ### [36:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=2205s) 破除“整数执念”与节目尾声：牛仔发型与新书赠送 本·卡尔森建议当事人无论如何至少应先卖掉三分之一的持仓。针对投资者常常出现的心理误区，邓肯补充道，许多人总喜欢锚定某个数字，心里想着“要是它能涨到一个整数 100 万美元我就卖”，或者“等这只亏损股回本我就抛”。比尔犀利地警告，这根本不是科学的投资决策，万一股价永远到不了 100 万反而掉头向下，投资人将抱憾终生：“别像电影《盗梦空间》（Inception）结局里的小李子（莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥）那样，变成一个终日生活在悔恨中的耄耋老人。” 在节目的最后几分钟，气氛重回轻松调侃： - **录影棚里的牛仔造型**：比尔与本调侃邓肯当天罕见地没有戴帽子，露出了一头茂密的长发，加上独特的装扮，整个人宛如乡村歌手基思·厄本（Keith Urban），而身边的搭档则被开玩笑形容为妮可·基德曼（Nicole Kidman）。邓肯笑称这是因为晚上有正式活动才盛装出席。 - **本·卡尔森新书赠送**：这是本·卡尔森出版的第 5 本书《Risk and Reward》（风险与回报）。当被问及“是否像对待孩子一样平等深爱自己的每一本书”时，本幽默地回应，其中有两本是自费出版的，“那两本就像继子一样不算数”，这本是他通过出版社正式出版的第 3 本书。 - 节目组宣布，未来 10 天内只要向 `askthecompoundshow@gmail.com` 发送问题的听众，就有机会免费获得 10 本作者亲笔签名的新书。节目在欢声笑语中圆满结束。 ## Notable quotes > [04:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=249s) 股市是冷酷无情的，它唯一在乎的就是盈利，高过一切事物。 — 本·卡尔森 > [15:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=920s) 向运转良好的经济齿轮里猛抓一把沙子 — 比尔·斯威特 > [20:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1200s) does not move the needle — 比尔·斯威特 > [25:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1500s) 我不喜欢它……我其实爱死它了 — 比尔·斯威特 > [31:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=1890s) 提高基数需要有人过世，我们可不会盼着长辈发生不幸 — 比尔·斯威特 > [34:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=2085s) Don't let the tax tail wag the dog — 比尔·斯威特 > [34:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=2085s) If you won the game, it's time to stop playing — 比尔·斯威特 > [36:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus&t=2205s) 别像电影《盗梦空间》（Inception）结局里的小李子（莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥）那样，变成一个终日生活在悔恨中的耄耋老人。 — 比尔·斯威特 ## Mentioned 标普 500, 本·卡尔森, 邓肯·希尔, 比尔·斯威特, Ritholtz 财富管理, The Compound, Risk and Reward, FactSet, 英伟达, 谷歌, 亚马逊, Meta, 节俭储蓄计划 (TSP), 增值税 (VAT), 美国国税局 (IRS), 外国税收抵免 (Foreign Tax Credit), VXUS, VTI, 529 大学储蓄计划, Roth IRA, SEP IRA, Solo 401(k), HSA, 应用材料 (Applied Materials), 美光 (Micron), 英特尔 (Intel), IBM, 微软 (Microsoft), 通用汽车 (General Motors), 施乐 (Xerox), 基思·厄本, 妮可·基德曼, 《盗梦空间》 ## Video description On episode 222 of Ask The Compound, Ben Carlson and Duncan Hill are joined by Ritholtz CFO Bill Sweet to discuss: if this market makes sense, S&P 500 returns, value added tax, foreign tax credits, how to save for college, small business retirement accounts and more! Submit your Ask The Compound questions to ⁠⁠askthecompoundshow@gmail.com⁠⁠!  Order your copy of Ben's book, 'Risk and Reward' here: https://lnk.to/riskandrewardbook Today’s show is sponsored by The Compound Insider. For all the latest info, subscribe at ⁠https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠ Subscribe to The Compound Newsletter for all the latest Compound content, live event announcements, find out who the next TCAF guest is, get updates on the latest merch drops, and more! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Talk with us about your portfolio or financial plan here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://ritholtzwealth.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Ben Carlson, Duncan Hill and Bill Sweet are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠ [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuhaiuXYus)

[4:09] 本·卡尔森: 股市是冷酷无情的，它唯一在乎的就是盈利，高过一切事物。 [15:20] 比尔·斯威特: 向运转良好的经济齿轮里猛抓一把沙子 [20:00] 比尔·斯威特: does not move the needle [25:00] 比尔·斯威特: 我不喜欢它……我其实爱死它了 [31:30] 比尔·斯威特: 提高基数需要有人过世，我们可不会盼着长辈发生不幸 [34:45] 比尔·斯威特: Don't let the tax tail wag the dog [34:45] 比尔·斯威特: If you won the game, it's time to stop playing [36:45] 比尔·斯威特: 别像电影《盗梦空间》（Inception）结局里的小李子（莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥）那样，变成一个终日生活在悔恨中的耄耋老人。

[0:00] Ben Carlson: The stock market is right far more often than pundits who try to predict it. [8:00] Ben Carlson: The stock market keeps on keeping on. [15:00] Duncan Hill: Taxation Without Representation [15:00] Duncan Hill: Live Free or Die [15:00] Ben Carlson: You are now leaving New Jersey [18:50] Bill Sweet: paralysis by analysis [30:00] Duncan Hill: WUFHF [33:30] Bill Sweet: which I would not wish on anyone [33:30] Bill Sweet: thermonuclear [35:45] Bill Sweet: Don't Let the Tax Tail Wag the Dog [35:45] Ben Carlson: Leo at the end of Inception, an old man living his life in a dream [35:45] Ben Carlson: I didn't know we were having Keith Urban on the show today

[0:00] Welcome back to Ask the Compound, the show where you ask and we answer the stock market in the United States. It keeps on keeping on. The S&P 500 is up 32% over the past year, 86% over the past three years, and a whopping 320% over the past 10 years. Good enough for annual returns of 15.5% per year. Does any of this make any sense considering the geopolitical situation, government debt levels, or general market fundamentals? We're going to answer that today. Is the stock market detached from reality? Let's do it. Our email here is AskTheCompoundShow at gmail.com We're live from the Compound Studios right across the street from Bryant Park. Duncan even did his hair for us today. It's good to see you in person. I know. It feels so weird. I haven't been to New York in a while, so we're doing it live. Not live with the audience. We have other things going on today. We're doing this now. On today's show, we're answering questions straight from our viewers and our listeners about why the stock market is up this year. The best one year return over the past 50 years. Is a consumption tax inevitable in America? How you can take advantage of foreign tax credits, how to save for college tuition in a flexible manner how to save for retirement as a small business owner and finally how to sell appreciated shares of applied materials We got a ton of questions today All right First today show is sponsored by the Compound Insider. We're in the Compound Studio. Subscribe to the latest episode drops, show events, live updates, announcements, merch releases, weekly guest reveals for the Compound friends, and more. Comes to your inbox once a week. Go to the compoundnews.com slash subscribe. we do a ton of content here so it's a great way to keep up with everything we do get the latest updates there the compound news comm so I subscribe all right quick intro I have a new book out it's one of the reasons I'm here it's called a risk and reward Daniel behind the scenes did the cover for me looks excellent look at the gold the gold detail it's so nice it is really cool yes I turned out great I love the way it looks chart kid Matt helped me all the charts in here I looked I kind of think there's 52 charts or tables in here so it's very visual visually stimulating book I would say I have to toot my own horn I want to do a book giveaway exclusively to our audience here at the comp as the compound so here's the deal I'm gonna give away ten signed copies of the book for a chance to win one what you have to do is send us a question to ask the compound show at gmail.com in the next 10 days okay so we gonna do pick 10 questions in the next 10 days I hand select the questions every week right My assistant does actually know I do it If I pick your questions someone from our team will reach out ask for your address Bonus points to Duncan for keeping your question to one paragraph or less, right? All I ask in return is that you leave a review for me on Amazon. Is that fair? So if you're holding on to a good question, send it in now. 10 questions for the next two weeks' worth of shows. If you send us a really good question and I'll send you a signed copy of my new book, Risk and Reward. Also, if you love Ben's voice, which I'm guessing most people listening do, you do the audiobook. Yes, I did do the audiobook myself. It was two full days in a recording studio. My brain felt like mush afterwards, but I got it done and it was kind of fun. Yeah, all right. Questions, let's do it. Okay, up first today we got one from Eric. I know this is one of the impossible questions, but this market seems so disconnected to what's happening on the ground right now. Is this the euphoria we'll later look back on and go, oh yeah, we were in a messy war and the stock market kept going up? Is it disconnected? Are there fundamentals supporting the S&P 500 at nearly 7,400? Okay, so this is a common question in recent weeks from investors and like pundits and financial media members alike How is it possible for the stock market to keep going up in the face of a war spiking oil prices rising energy prices uh it a fair question sometimes there are no obvious answers to the short-term movements in the market like the market just gets ahead of things and you're like what why is it doing this i have no idea the answer to today's question is pretty straightforward the market is not detached from the fundamentals it's following the fundamentals the fundamentals are the main driver of the market today let's do charts i got a bunch of charts chart Matt, help me out here. So first one, actual reported earnings growth. This is for the first quarter of 2026. For the S&P 500, 25% year-over-year earnings growth. For technology and communication services, it's 45% and 54%. Huge growth. Remind me, what's the biggest weighting in communication services? Why is that so huge? It's basically, it's meta and Google. Oh, okay. So it's just like tech. Even consumer discretionary is 35% year-over-year earnings growth. Do the next one. This is blended revenue growth. So this is like actual and estimates, double digits across the board essentially. For most- Wow, look at technology. That's crazy. 30% almost revenue growth. One more. Next one. This is from FactSet. They look at the change in forward 12 month EPS versus the change in prices of the past 10 years. Not a perfect relationship. Sometimes it's not. [5:00] Earnings are higher, sometimes stock prices are higher, but the trend is what you want to look at here. Okay. And according to FACSAT too, this is the sixth consecutive quarter of double digit year over year earnings growth. So earnings just keep, it's not like this is a situation where earnings are flatlining and prices are going nuts. Earnings are accelerating. Do the next chart. This is from exhibit A. Chartid Matt made this one. This is S&P 500, 400, and 600. So that's large cap, small cap, mid cap. Look at the top one. I mean, small caps and mid caps are growing too, but earnings are accelerating for the largest stocks. They're not just going up a little bit. They're accelerating. Now, one more. Let's look at valuations. Okay? So this is forward PE, again, for large caps, small caps, and mid caps. But if you look at the S&P 500, you can see that it's actually fallen in recent years. So the stock market since the start of 2025 is up almost 30%. And in that time, the PE ratio has fallen. What does that tell us? fundamentals are growing faster than prices. It's kind of insane when you think about it. That is. We have a lower PE ratio today than we did at the start of 2025. I've heard that about Nvidia, right? Right. They keep growing into it. Do one more Daniel This is net profit margins from FactSet Again by sector Tech is like 30 communication services is 20 All the biggest weightings have huge profit margins Basically, if you do chart off, AI and earnings matter way more than geopolitics at the moment. That's what I was about to ask you. How much of this is AI? Is this a completely read an AI story? A lot of it. I mean, Google and Amazon and Meta, they all blew out earnings. So the question is, does the stock market always track fundamentals? No. Prices and fundamentals can and will diverge. It just so happens that now they're kind of following each other. And I look at this as almost like the stock market is not being crazy. It's not being detached from reality. It's actually in line with reality. And you would think in the past, it would have detached from reality and the headlines would have caused things to... But no, it's the fundamentals that matter more like that's actually a good thing so the question is like well what if the implied expectations are wrong people are over their skis like that could be something but i i think the my takeaway is the stock market is right far more often than pundits who try to predict it like when the stock market bounced in april 2020 everyone's going oh my gosh you can't spend your way out of a out of a pandemic there no way that was low this is a dead cat bounce the stock market was right when inflation was nine percent in october of 2022 and there was a hundred percent certainty we going into recession and the stock market bounce everyone said there no way this is going to last the stock market was right again it's not always right like there's that old saying that the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions but um i agree it's it seems somewhat surprising that there's a war in the middle east and oil prices are spiking and energy costs are higher and gas is like $5 a gallon. But the stock market is heartless. All it cares about its earnings above all else, and that's what's driving the market right now. Does this mean that the risk of just falling off a cliff is much higher whenever the market gets like this? Well, if earnings rolled over, then yes. But if earnings stay higher, then I think that there's probably, assuming the valuations don't go sky high, there's probably a margin of safety in the market. So you're right. But this is a good thing. It's tracking fundamentals. I I think that's what you want to see. Yeah. It's like you guys often say the economy is different than the stock market too, right? So some of this stuff, I guess, the economy could start to weaken in ways, but it doesn't necessarily mean that Google is going to be making less money. The stock market is like 50% tech stocks. The economy is not 50% technology. Right. Yeah. All right. Let's do another one. Hey, up next, we got one from Mark. I calculated my net worth over the last year and found it to be an interesting exercise I asked AI if last year S 500 return of 30 is one of the largest It was not most likely 7 or 8 Either way, this is rarefied error, and it seems like we aren't even at the peak given recent earnings reports. What does your data say? So we're getting more and more questions from people who say, I asked AI this, can you fact check AI for me? So I guess our job here is safe for now to ask the compound. Mark knows me. I love a good research project like this. So I took the data. Let's take the data back to 1975 because I like round numbers like everyone else. So from the start of 1975 through the end of April, annualized returns for the S&P 500 were? Your guess. Wait, say that again. Since 1975, what's the annual return for the stock, U.S. stock market, the S&P 500? 7.5%. Not even close. 12.5% per year since 1975. Unbelievable. $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in 1975 is worth $4.2 million today. $10,000 turned into $4.2 million over 50 plus years. But don't advisors use like seven as a number when they're calculating? Well, if you want to be conservative, yes. You always want to like set expectations low, right? [10:00] into the one-year returns now, which is what they're looking at. So I looked at the rolling 12-month total returns in the S&P going back to 1975. All right. Last year, Indeed has seen returns like 31%. Not bad. So where does it rank? Okay. The highest ever was actually 61%. That's the best 12-month gain. These are monthly returns. Okay. That occurred in the early 1980s at the start of that bull market because we had back-to-back Fed-induced recessions, 1981 and 1982 and the stock market took off like a rocket ship. The worst 12-month return was a loss of 43%, took place in the Great Financial Crisis. That one's pretty obvious. So the 31% return of the past 12 months, Daniel, next chart, ranks in the 88th percentile of one-year returns since 1975. This is returns from high to low, right? So it's 73 out of 600 something. So that's 88th percentile. So roughly, say, 90% of all 12-month returns this period was better than. But there's been plenty of times where it's actually been a little better than this. So returns of 40% or more over 12 months in this time frame have happened 22 times from a starting pick a month, right? 50 or more has happened seven times So we had a wonderful run not quite the best 12 month returns but this kind of gets back to the first question Is all that earnings growth now priced in My answer I don know Maybe, probably. How this market is behaving, maybe not. I don't know. It seems like every time we say this, something keeps getting better. So, yes, a wonderful 12-month of returns. Not the best ever. Certainly in the top decile, though, barely. You're saying we've got more room to go? It's possible. You never know. I like that. Let's do another one and bring in a special guest. All right. Up next, we got one from Frag. Bill, that's a hint, I guess. Bill, from one military guy to another, I'm worried the Roth TSP, thrift savings plan, is losing its superpower status. Advise me like I was one of your troops. There's a growing movement in D.C. to pivot the U.S. toward a consumption tax. My thesis, in a VAT heavy world, VAT is value-added tax, right? Yep. In a VAT-heavy world, the Roth becomes a double tax trap, taxed on the way in as income and taxed on the way out as a cash register. Does a sea change in tax theory invalidate the Roth's tax-free promise? Is the traditional TSP actually the hedge we need if income taxes eventually disappear in favor of sales taxes Look who we have Duncan you definitely wrote this question Say his name and he appears This one is designed in a lab to make me appear on Ask the Combat I mean I couldn make that name up It beautiful First how did you talk to your troops How did I talk to the troops Yeah. Every morning at 530, you have formation and you give them the general orders of the day. So yeah, we would do it early. Were you pretty heavy handed? Like you yelling a lot? No, I was more of the soft and cuddly command. Do they say sir, yes, sir? Yes. Yeah. All right. So So this is – I told you this is kind of a dorm room type of question, I think. But Frag seems to think like this is a possibility. So why don't we start here? What's a value-added tax? Yeah, so value-added tax, VAT, it is a national sales tax. So that's what this thing is. And if we can chart on – I see this on like things you buy in Europe. Correct. You see a VA. And this is very common, yeah, in the European Union. So if you buy stuff in the U.S. in states that have a sales tax, not everyone does. Michigan does 6%. Michigan, in New York, it's by county. It's crazy. There's like 42 jurisdictions. Oh, it's insane. So if you buy something in the US and you are subject to a sales tax, you pay a sales tax based on the end product, right? So something that you buy for $1,000 or a 10,000, you're going to pay a percent sales tax. And this is what I'm issuing here in the end. The incidence of the tax and the sales tax happens when you buy the product. So the retailer ends up having to collect that tax remit it and everybody up and down the supply chain is more or less tax right Because they delivering a product to the retailer Of that a value tax which is very common in the EU and other places is a sales tax, but it applies across the supply chain. So if we're developing widgets, let's say that we're making financial plans, when the financial planner generates the input and passes it on, that could be a taxable event if he passes it on the CFP. And so they would pay the $100 of that tax along the way. And then ultimately, when the end consumer buys the product, maybe they're paying a VAT, but ultimately it's been segmented along the manufacturing process. So it's a more evenly way to distribute the end sales tax. It ends up being less distortionary than a sales tax in the end, which is applied to the gross product. But he seems to think we're going to have this in lieu of maybe payroll taxes. Yeah. So definitely it is something that's being discussed in the DC circles and the New York Times opinion page so that is definitely something that's happening because I don't know if you gentlemen have taken a look recently somewhere on $2 trillion budget deficit right depending on where Intel stock is this week. What is it loaded I'm sure people have done the numbers what would it have to be to make up for income tax a very very large amount. It would have to be what a 30% or 20% or something. What's really interesting about this we ran an experiment last year on what event might be and it took the form of [15:00] tariff right because what is a tariff the goods hitting the shore you end up applying basically a sales tax right before they're sold and ultimately that was distorting our prices if you guys take a look at coffee prices i know you gentlemen don't but i've seen a lot of it does show up in the supply chain it's not great for consumers it's very a terrified argues very inefficient so uh frag my guy in dc i i think he's got a little bit of dc brain on this to be honest like just not to make any political statements but what member of the gop would vote for a national sales tax right I mean, that would be political death. It would be very hard to convince people that this is because the taxes are taken out automatically. Yeah. You know how hard it is to pay your estimated taxes. It hurts writing that check. Oh, my God. If people had to see the taxes coming out of everything they spend, they could say, well, I don't know. It's more progressive. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. But it would be a big change. So I guess maybe what we can say if we want to give him an actual real world of advice, like just he needs to diversify his tax base if he's really worried about this. Is that what he's looking for? And my point to Frag would be, look, if a Roth IRA is potentially going to be tax inefficient in three ways, like guess what a traditional IRA distribution would be? Then you're paying income tax and VAT and consumption tax. So it not like you solving any problems by going traditional Roth I think this is really interesting theoretically But like one of the things in my view gentlemen who that separates the U competitively is you go to Europe and like it is expensive as hell right To fill up your gas tank to buy anything And the VAT is a big part of that. Because of all the taxes. Exactly. And taxes upon taxes upon taxes, in my view, not a great way to run a country, but that's a political argument. Yeah, but they have different – they have the metric system over there. You're buying liters of gas. Exactly. It's a gallon. Sure. So it doesn't feel as bad. So yeah, it's more affordable. That was a big Shaq joke, right? when gas was $5 a gallon. He's like, just fill it up a quarter of a, you know, put $20 in, as if that likes it anyway. Right, right. But I have a question for Vets, or Frag. Frag is in D.C. Which license plate, gentlemen, goes hardest? And so we have, up for grabs, the Washington, D.C. license plate. Duncan knows this guy. Taxation without representation. Yeah, that's it. How about New Hampshire, live free or die? Which one would you gentlemen take? I like the D.C. one. The D.C. one? I'm biased. I used to live there. If I live free or die hard, then I go to New Hampshire. Live free or die is pretty hard. in the mountains. I'll tell you what's at the bottom of the list. The P yellow license plate for New Jersey. That one and Connecticut's are both pretty bad. At least it's not the color of urine. Fair. I was going to say champagne. Yeah. So you know things are looking up when you're driving and you see a sign that says you now leaving New Jersey That a good sign No offense to our New Jersey audience out there No we love the Garden State And John clapping off camera Yeah that where Alexander Hamilton was killed by New Jersey Regarding the VAT though so at the end of the day the average consumer it would just make prices for things higher. It wouldn't increase the tax they pay at the registry. What some people would say is that, well, you'd pay a higher price because it's added on. But some people would say, well, the people who pay them, like if the top 10% is spending all the money then they're going to be taking the brunt of this tax that's what people would say right i guess so it seems like a tax on the middle class especially right i mean when you look at who's doing the most spending probably would if everyone's paying if everyone's paying the same rate too then yes higher consumption taxes yes so it reduced consumption so i guess that's good but again americans like to drive big trucks and eat big macs and get their giant fill-in so like i don't know necessarily culturally that's a great fit i think the key problem is it's it's adding a burdensome tax regime, right? The IRS is 40% down in staff this year, and they are barely able to process income tax returns. And in theory, like throwing this thing at them, I think it would increase costs and increase friction in the economy. It's like throwing a bunch of sand in the gears. And back to Ben's point in the question one, the U.S. economy is on fire. Like, I do not understand why we would want to be throwing burdensome taxes Well that was going to be my next question is what European country do you think politicians are looking at and saying we should be more like them I mean for real if we talking about something I mean a lot of folks that are suffering in the healthcare system they would point to a Sweden, Scandinavian country. But I just don't think you can do that at this scale, right? I understand like a homogenous, ethically centric, smaller country. Yeah, maybe you can do this because everybody's there. A lot of what's going on in Minnesota right now, again, not to take in political stance, but like, it's not good what's going on there. And I think a lot of it is that they're trying to implement these Scandinavian-style welfare programs, and unfortunately, there are individuals that will take advantage of that. So I just don't – I don't know. I don't think there are easy answers to these questions. Very theoretical. We should do some field trips. Let's go. Let's do an actual real-world question now. Okay. Up next, we've got a question from Andrew. I'm 31, and my wife is 30. We're currently invested in 50% VTI and 50% VXUS. Does it make sense to hold the VXUS in the taxable brokerage account to take advantage of the foreign tax credit, or to go 50-50 in all accounts since we don't know what the performance of each will be? For reference, we have about $600,000 invested, not to brag, of which about half is in the taxable brokerage and half is in various IRA and Roth IRA accounts. All right. First of all, credit to Andrew and his wife. That's an extremely simple portfolio. Yeah, that's great. Very simple. Nice. All right. So the question is, what is the deal with the foreign tax credit? Like, how does it work? [20:00] So if you, Ben Carlson, if you're traveling to Europe and you, well, this is not for an investment account, but let's just say hypothetically, and you pay a tax on your dividend income from Europe, the United States government will give you a tax credit for the taxes you paid to the foreign government. And so what our question is, is where should I hold foreign assets? If you hold foreign assets in a non-qualified brokerage account, a taxable account, you can claim those tax credits you're paying to these Scandinavian countries that are just taxing their people left and right. And the only the only company that comes out of there is Spotify or Nokia or whatever. Right. They're taking their bit before it gets to you. That's correct. And the U.S. does this, too, by the way. So if you were investing in the U.S., like we do apply 20 percent foreign tax withholding unless you're a U.S. taxpayer, unless you swear on a stack of Bibles, yes, sir, I will file my income tax return. So the question is, can I claim those credits? Can you recapture them? The answer is yes. If you are in a non-qualified account and you're owning your VXUS or other fund there, you can claim those credits and ultimately offset some of your U.S. tax. So if you're holding those assets in a qualified account, Roth, traditional, 401k, you're not able to claim those credits because by definition, those are tax-free or tax-deferred. The question is, does this actually move the needle? So the answer is no. That to be direct To skate around some of the nuance can we chart on Let take a look at US versus ex yields Let start there For people who don know VXUS is just a fund that has no US exposure. That's correct. It's the world stock market minus the United States. Correct, or very little. Yields are higher outside of the US very generally. Depending on what type of income you're looking for, that can be good. It can be bad. I take more of a total return approach. Price ratios are lower outside the US, so that partly explains yield. Regardless, you do get a higher yield. The percentage of qualified, though, is really important. And this is the other distinction. We haven't even gotten to foreign taxes yet. In the U.S., generally, any companies are U.S.-based, you're getting a qualified dividend treatment. And that means you're getting 15% or up to 20% of tax plus net investment income tax on qualified dividends, which are basically in a U.S. company and companies from outside the U.S. that we have a favorable tax treaty to. So comparing these two funds generally, the qualified ratio for outside the U.S. is roughly 60%. So 60% of your dividends on a higher yield qualify for a lower tax treatment, but 40% you're paying ordinary income on. So there is some tax arbitrage there because yes, you're getting more yield, but you're also paying a higher rate on 40% of your income. So the non-qualified ratio there is just the inverse and the foreign tax credit ends up being roughly depending on the country 7 on average of what you paying in foreign taxes So you put this all in a blender and unfortunately the answer is it depends Because if you paying high taxes those credits don go as far The credits are fixed. The taxes are variable, right, based on your income. So somebody in a lower tax bracket would probably benefit from holding this stuff up to the U.S. To answer Ben's question, does any of this matter? Who knows? It all depends. I think this is paralysis by analysis. It's a little bit too much to think about. I would just split it 50-50 and move on down the road. Right. They might be overthinking it. I think so. And the cost benefit is not there. Yeah. And again, my total return thoughts, Ben, I don't know how you feel about this, but like I don't really want dividends. Like there are some really crazy ETFs and funds right now. They're like not doing dividends at all. They're like reinvesting dividends. I love seeing dividends in my account. I love that. It's a psychological thing. I agree. And they don't do as many buybacks overseas. That's one of the reasons the dividend yields are higher. That's correct. And prices are lower, right? Price to earnings ratio generally is lower outside the US. So we're at this sort of peak of the market, but I want lower yield stuff. So I would probably today, just based on my tax rate, I'd rather have the XUS stuff in a qualified account. But the big issue is how do you switch the head? You can't switch this every year, right? Because you're paying taxes, capital gains. Right. I frankly don't think about it. I don think about it too much Yes Great question I always say if you getting down to this level of detail in a question you probably doing okay with yourself Yeah Right Yeah Yeah I think so That another one All right Up next we got one from Matt I have two kids ages eight and six and have been focusing on saving for college using 529 plans with target day funds since they were born. My plan is to aggressively fund each 529 up to $50,000 over the next one to three years and then shift to a strategy where most new contributions go into a taxable brokerage account in my name so I can invest more aggressively and maintain flexibility if college plans change. Does it make sense to front load 529s to a certain level and then pivot to taxable investing? What do you think about the tradeoff between tax advantages of 529s versus the flexibility and potentially higher equity exposure in taxable accounts? I currently maximize contributions to my Roth 401k, IRA, and HSA. So saving for college is not impacting my ability to save for retirement or healthcare needs. I think we have a lot of middle-aged people that write us in because this flexibility theme is something we run into again and again this year. Like, okay, I took advantage of tax retirement accounts, but they're not very flexible. I get the tax benefit, but I want to have this other piece where I can do some other stuff with it. Yeah, can't touch the money until you're 60. Also, you were telling me 529 is usually it's it's predetermined what you can [25:00] question you don't i i thought you could pick whatever like an ira or something it's there's only certain things you can say and they some plans are better than others there's a lot of uncertainty in college savings right now there always is like how much it's going to cost people ask us this it's like i don't know yeah a lot it'll just be a million dollars a semester in 10 years i showed a chart the other day actually in the last 10 years inflation is running way higher overall inflation cpi than college inflation it's surprising it's slowed down finally the other the other question is like will ai change the game completely like will my kids even have to go i I feel like those are the people that just don't want to save for college. Listen, AI is going to take it all away. I'm not going to. I'm not going to. I actually, sidebar, I think AI will make the college experience far more important in the future, not less. Going to college in an AI world where people are more attached to their screens, inside more often, not going out and doing stuff as much, college experience is going to have a bigger premium. Anyway, what do you think about this idea of front loading your 529 plans? Ben, I don't like it. No, okay. I love it. I think it's great. Because ultimately, if you're taking dollars that you would otherwise be saving and you're putting them into a tax shielded vehicle. Such a dad joke. Such a showman. I got you, though. Putting that in a tax deferred vehicle for the benefit of your kids right I mean ultimately if you kind of rank you know priorities I put the kids at the top of the list Plus the idea of front loading is you getting more compounding Correct And then your compounding ultimately Ben to your point cost of college you know your chart shows that it you know increasing at a rate of inflation less than broad CPI but it still increasing And it's exorbitant. I mean, I, what, 30 grand a year is what I paid. I think it's closer to 70 now at the college I went to. I mean, it's obscene. So if it is worth noting, the average cost people actually pay from the sticker is like 50% off. Right, right, right. Totally. Most people don't pay if you play the game. Yeah. So but if you have a bucket of assets that is tax deferred and tax compounded to your point, Ben, I have seen clients take a five to nine distributions where something like 90 percent of the distribution was earnings, meaning that they got a 90 percent discount on college tuition from what they paid due to the market because they got started early. And that is a very, very, very powerful thing because it ends up at least in New York in certain states. If you take tax deduction up front and then you get tax free distributions on the back end. The only thing like that is a health savings account in HSA. It's tremendous. So front loading the 529 makes a lot of sense, creates a shield, and your point, Ben, you get tax-free compounding. It's awesome. And the flexibility of the taxable brokerage, you don't have to do anything with it after the fact if they don't use it. Yep. In the last two years, you can do a rollover to Roth for up to $35,000 per beneficiary. What do you think about moving to a state that has free in tuition Georgia It seems like a way to game the system Totally Tennessee maybe Housing is very affordable right now in most states So like California totally I totally recommend this. Of course. Okay. I thought it was a good idea. I love it. Unless you're West Gray, you don't move somewhere because of taxes. Right. How's that? He did it big. Yeah. Puerto Rico, right? Definitely. Yeah. All right, let's do another one. All right, up next we got one from Kevin. I work for a family business with less than five employees. 10% of my net worth is in a Roth IRA. The rest of my investments go into a taxable brokerage account. I max out my Roth IRA every year, but I feel like I'm not optimizing for tax efficiency. What other retirement accounts would you recommend for somebody in my situation? All right. This will be the shortest answer ever. SEP IRA, Solo 401k. I dig it. Right? Is that it? Yeah. That's where it started. Yeah. Can we chart on, Daniel? Wait. What is a SEP IRA? A SEP. It's a simplified employee pension. and it's a small business 401k plan. So yeah, if we chart on and you ignore the typo, because I forgot to put a D under tax advantage, we're starting with an IRA for my guy. And so that's a great place to start. You can save up to $7,000 a year. It's awesome. And then Ben, you're right. Next I would lock into a retirement plan So we mentioned family business right Five other employees those are the facts and circumstances The big thing to keep concerned though on the sep and the solo k plan not even a solo k plan is you going to need to fund a retirement plan for your employees too right right so that's the big issue that you'd have with a small business so sep ira duncan would follow on that that's a very easy way to fund but you need to do that as a percentage of income and so that That can be up to $72,000, and business owners can put in roughly 18%. I would also point that to an HSA, health savings account. I mentioned those before. Requires you to have an HTHP, a high-deductible health savings plan. But you can put up to $4,400 per year into an HSA now. Distributions come out tax-free if they're used for medical expenses. And new for this year, a 538 Trump account, which will launch in July. But that's more for kids. I don't know that a number on it. 538? 538, yep, that's what I'm calling them. We've complained before about the fact there's so many accounts. Why is there a SEP IRA and a solo 401k? I don't get that. They seem very similar to me. Yeah, I think because back in the 1970s, 80s, 90s, just like the Roth, some senator came up with a plan to save the American investor and rolled forward and stuck their name on it. And right there at the bottom, you see it happen again and again and again. And we just keep bolting stuff onto the tax code. This has to get consolidated at some point in the future, right? There has to just be like, this is your social security. [30:00] It doesn't seem like it should make sense that someone is able to put 70 grand into their text for a retirement account and someone else in a Roth is able to put like seven. That doesn't make any sense to me. And the sweet Carlson plan for 2028 when our platform is universal savings accounts. We just opened it up TSB to the masses. Remember how Ryan on the office had the WMFA? What's it called? Woof. Woof. Yeah, it went to every one of your social media accounts and it faxed. That's going to be our plan for these accounts where it's going to be one account under a big umbrella. Simplify the tax code. Everything. Put it on a postcard. That's our pitch. I like it. Yeah. All right. We got one more. All right. Last but not least, we got one. This is a record for questions, I think. Oh, it's exciting. Yeah, I think it might be. It might be. We've definitely done seven before Vogue. Okay. Okay. This one's from John. I like this question a lot. My father-in-law has one remaining individual stock position, applied materials. That's AMAP, I think. He bought it at $4 a share in his brokerage account decades ago, and today it's $440 a share. Not to brag. Yeah not to brag So he sitting on about in capital gains He wants to start trimming his position Are there any good sell down strategies he can use to limit his capital gains He has two children and three grandchildren he could gift it to and one of the grandchildren has special needs Are there trusts or other options Any advice from you Bill or anyone else is greatly appreciated Credit to his dad for doing this. Holding on to that, yeah. I can't even imagine what the drawdowns in that stock would have been. Probably massive. This is somewhat of a bull market question, but sometimes people just do it. We've had people come to us who say, hey, my grandfather put money into Intel and IBM and Microsoft in the 1980s or something and has them at like cents in the dollar or something for cost basis. What do I do? I mean, that's a huge capital gain. Yeah. Right. There are ways to offset that through we've talked about direct indexing and taxless harvesting. Probably not the whole thing. My guess. Yeah. What say you? Yeah. A couple of options. I think the straightforward I'm going to end here, too, is just early in the tax year, what I would recommend is you bite off a big chunk and you basically pay out, you know, realize all the gains in January and February. And then that buys you time. You have then a slug of cash and you diversify and you can buy a bunch of stuff. You can even just do this with ETFs. And if you get any drawdowns in individual positions or broad markets you can liquidate those during the tax year to offset the loss that are excuse me the gain that you took in January and potentially net out the effects But what I like about that is in January you have 11 months more or less of tax planning in front of you If you pull the trigger right now which might be the thing to do from a market perspective, right? If you take a look at that chart, it probably looks like... Yes, it's a vertical. Okay, great. So I mean, I think at this point, there's still enough time. So I probably would recommend that because ultimately something that can double, triple, quadruple, or 100x, that can get cut in half at any point. Well, I'm looking at the drawdown chart here. In the combination of the dot-com bubble blowing up and the great financial crisis, this stock was down 86%. Yep. In, let's see, 2022, it was down 50%. Liberation Day was down 43%. So this thing has gotten hammered a bunch. Can you imagine what the VAT would do to this sucker? The fact that his dad held on to the shares is kind of amazing. What if they're just waiting for it to hit an even million, you know? Just wait. Because, yeah, once you get to that point. So he asked about, like, children and grandchildren and gifting. Yeah. I guess the other thing is charitable giving. Yep. That's another way to do it, right? Yeah, donating those shares means you don't have to realize the gain. Giving to children or grandchildren, is there a step-up in basis when you do that? There would not be. No, that requires somebody to die, which I would not wish. Remember we had the Intel person last week saying, hey, you'd miss this. Someone got Intel shares for their wedding present That awesome And it just went bonkers And now yes they like no we still we still pay the taxes Right exactly Helping to reduce American taxes too because we own what 10 of Intel as a country But moving forward, yeah, that's another way to do it is charitable deductions, contributions to offset the gain that you're realizing. That's another great strategy. I've got some crazy ones to throw at you guys if you want to speed around. We can look at a variable forward prepaid contract, right, and that basically is an agreement to sell the stock at a future date And you can kind of see what happens, let's say, 18 months, two years in advance and play that game. It's a really neat way to go. Yeah, you have to pay like a margin fee. It's not free. But ultimately, if the taxes on this thing are so high, that might be a really interesting way to go. What I like about that is it gives you optionality. You can either exchange the shares at the time that the gains realized or if the stock continues to go thermonuclear, then you can actually realize cash. So like liquidate half your gain. Another option would be to deploy tax loss harvesting. We have these long short programs that are all over the market right now. Yes, you can turn the dial up on them. Exactly. That does require losing money to offset. Correct. But if you're diversifying enough and you're taking short and long positions through a professional manager, I wouldn't recommend doing this at home. Usually the reason you do this is because you want to diversify. That's correct. So it's more or less instant diversification knowing that you have a gain and you have time to whittle it down. The other option would be an exchange fund. There are funds that big providers offer that they fund. [35:00] And they say, hey, this dude has applied materials. Let's take this Micron guy. Let's take this Bitcoin dude. Let's take this gal who has a bunch of Intel stock and they put them all together in our fund and you basically get diversification through the fund. The problem with those, you got a seven year holding period. So they're trade offs. There's no good solution. What's that called again? That is called an exchange fund. For these options, you want to talk to a financial advisor. These are very complicated, hard to understand, very hard to do yourself. You want to talk to a professional. amount of downside too and ultimately yeah you're going to pay a little bit to a professional manager to help you solve the tax problem but if that's less than what you would pay in tax maybe it's worth it we do this type of work for our clients every day not not financial advice obviously but uh what would you guys do if you were in this position probably sell i'd sell a gift i like that gifting idea just because ultimately the children grandchildren would probably have a lower tax basis depending on whether kitty tax applies or not lower tax rates so i do actually love that idea because ultimately you just say hey here's twenty thousand dollars but you have to pay the tax so that's on you I don't think that's a bad trade-off but I love the idea like I said a real realizing the gains early doing tax loss harvesting and if you get to December you still have a huge capital gain that's a great place to donate to a public library do that through a donor and I do a bucket you a few of the options I wouldn't do it all because I don't think you can do it all but I think the bigger picture is look these are all tax questions and you shouldn't let the tax tail wag the dog you if you won the game it's time to stop playing like that would be my advice to just about anybody because the bottom can get pulled out of any single stock at any time. General Motors, Xerox, these are some of the largest companies, General Motors, back in the 1980s, and they got cut to 90% losses. The stock is up 155% in the last year. Yeah, I think I'd sell at least a third. This stock could fall 20 in a single day and it wouldn surprise me In a day So again it could keep going up too Yeah It would make them sick if it just kept going vertical But that why you want to probably break it up I would sell some You don't do it all. Yeah. If it was me, if it was me. Exactly. But I think people make this mistake. Duncan, you said it before. The index to a number. They're like, if it just goes over a million dollars, it'll be good. And what if it never gets there? Right. And then you'll look back and live your life. Yeah, that's the whole thing. I'm going to sell this stock that's down a lot. I'm going to sell it when it breaks even again. That's not a way to make an investment decision. Don't let the market make those decisions for you. Don't be Leo at the end of inception, an old man living his life in a red. That's my advice to you, Duncan. I appreciate that. Wild Maine today. You look like a cowboy. Have the listeners seen you in your full glory? I don't think so. I don't think I've ever been hatless. I didn't know we were having Keith Urban on the show today. It's amazing. This is because we have an event today. I'm not just dressed like this. Nicole Kidman, right here. Amazing. That's right. We'd have a nice fun event tonight. All right. Fun to do this in studio. First time in a long time. No, it's great. Can I give a shout out to my man, Ben Carlson? This is book number five for Mr. Ben. Ben, do you love your books like children? Do you love them all equally in that nonsense? Or which one's your favorite? You can answer honestly. Two of them are like stepchildren because they were self-published. Those don't count. This is my third published one of the publishers. So anyway, we're giving away 10 free signed copies. All you have to do is send us a question. Ask the compound show at gmail.com in the next 10 days. I can't wait to read it. I'm going to have a lot of questions for you. All right. Appreciate it. long way to go to grow my hair out but i'll be there soon i like it i like it all right thanks everyone we'll see you next time