Trump Takes Tech Chiefs to Beijing Summit Amid AI and Inflation Risks
TBPN
The U.S. risks undermining its AI containment strategy and long-term Taiwan deterrence during high-stakes trade negotiations in Beijing while facing domestic stagflation.
## Background
Diet TBPN published this episode on YouTube on May 14, 2026. According to the page description, the 30-minute show delivers the best highlights from the daily TBPN tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, which covers major technology and industry news.
## TL;DR
The episode breaks down the high-stakes Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, spotlighting the prominent delegation of American corporate titans, semiconductor trade tensions, and shifting diplomatic postures around Taiwan. It examines Anthropic's selective rollout of Claude Mythos to Japanese banks alongside broader U.S. AI policy contradictions and China's rapid progress in open-source AI models. Additionally, the hosts evaluate futuristic compute strategies like space- and ocean-based data centers before concluding with a look at escalating inflation data and looming stagflation risks driven by energy shocks.
## Atmosphere & style
The show blends sharp, quick-witted banter with high-level geopolitical and technical analysis, making complex economic and policy topics feel approachable and conversational. John Coogan and Jordi Hays trade playful jokes about executive fashion choices, airplane paint, and wild infrastructure concepts before effortlessly pivoting to serious commentary on trade wars and macroeconomic stress. The resulting vibe is energetic, candid, and plugged-in—feeling like an informal yet deeply insider debrief between tech-savvy peers.
## Key takeaways
- [00:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=2s) The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing features a high-profile U.S. corporate delegation including executives from Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, Boeing, and major financial institutions.
- [01:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=70s) Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined the trip aboard Air Force One via Alaska, amidst confusion over initial media reporting regarding his invitation.
- [04:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=285s) Executives like Jensen Huang and Palmer Luckey utilize consistent wardrobes to build distinct brand identities, though it presents long-term media retention risks.
- [09:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=575s) The core trade negotiations center on securing U.S. access to rare earth minerals in exchange for predictable tariff policies and semiconductor export terms.
- [12:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=750s) Key frontier AI lab leaders from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google/DeepMind are notable omissions from the U.S. summit delegation.
- [12:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=750s) Xi Jinping is seeking to shift the U.S. diplomatic stance on Taiwan toward explicit opposition to independence and veto power over arms sales.
- [15:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=944s) Trump's personalized diplomacy creates geopolitical uncertainty for regional allies, particularly regarding Taiwan, China's ties to rogue states, and human rights issues like Jimmy Lai.
- [17:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1067s) Anthropic is extending Claude Mythos access to major Japanese banks to strengthen national infrastructure against AI risks under Prime Minister Takaichi's directives.
- [17:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1067s) U.S. AI policy exhibits internal tension between granting restricted access to advanced models like Mythos for security while simultaneously allowing top semiconductor exports to China.
- [17:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1067s) China's open-source AI capabilities lag U.S. frontier models by an estimated six to twelve months, operating under concentrated funding models like DeepSeek.
- [23:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1401s) Google and SpaceX are discussing plans to partner on launching orbital data center satellites ahead of SpaceX's planned public listing.
- [23:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1401s) Tech companies are exploring alternative infrastructure environments, including deep-sea and space-based data centers, to bypass local energy constraints and regulatory friction.
- [26:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1604s) U.S. economic data shows accelerating inflation driven by energy shocks and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with PPI reaching 6% and CPI reaching 3.8%.
- [26:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1604s) The macro environment reflects stagflation risks, where non-AI real GDP growth has slowed to 0.1% alongside elevated inflation expectations.
## Detailed walkthrough
### [00:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=2s) Trump-Xi Jinping Beijing Summit and the Corporate "A-Team"
The discussion opens on the major news dominating the front page of the Wall Street Journal: the high-stakes summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing. Both leaders arrived with massive delegations, turning geopolitics into a true "team sport." While political figures were part of the entourage, the hosts emphasize that the American business executives in attendance represent the real story. The delegation features a powerhouse lineup of corporate titans, including Elon Musk (Tesla), Tim Cook (Apple), Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Kelly Ortberg (Boeing), David Solomon (Goldman Sachs), Stephen Schwarzman (Blackstone), Larry Fink (BlackRock), Jane Fraser (Citi), and Dina Powell McCormick (Meta). The hosts take a playful jab at Boeing's inclusion, noting it is a "flex" given Boeing's enduring dominance in manufacturing large commercial aircraft, whereas drone giants like DJI have been unable to scale up to build a 747.
- **Corporate Titans Present:** Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Kelly Ortberg, David Solomon, Stephen Schwarzman, Larry Fink, Jane Fraser, and Dina Powell McCormick.
- **Boeing's Flex:** Kelly Ortberg's presence underscores Boeing's long-standing lead in large aircraft manufacturing, contrasting it with drone makers like DJI.
---
[01:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=70s) The Speculation Surrounding Jensen Huang's Arrival
The conversation pivots to the logistics and drama surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's trip. Speculation swirled after reports suggested he boarded Air Force One during a stopover in Alaska. The hosts address conflicting media reporting: CNBC originally claimed Jensen wasn't invited, prompting a correction from Trump on Truth Social where he clarified that while he hadn't invited Jensen personally, the Nvidia chief was indeed part of the trip. The hosts debate whether Alaska was just a convenient rendezvous point or if Jensen was a late addition due to dynamic scheduling conflicts. Given that Nvidia is the largest company in America and operates at the absolute epicenter of US-China chip sanctions and trade tensions, his presence on the flight—confirmed by Elon Musk—was vital for the trade dialogue.
The hosts contrast Silicon Valley's typical stakes with the sheer scale of global geopolitics. In tech, a $2 billion acquisition or a $40 billion revenue line is considered massive, but on the world stage, leaders are bargaining over a trillion-dollar oil market, global rare earth supplies, and critical semiconductor supply chains. The hosts react to grainy arrival footage from Beijing showing Trump, Musk, and Huang walking down the red carpet past flag-waving crowds, admiring the majestic presence of the 747 Air Force One while lamenting how the broader airline industry has crammed everyday travelers into cramped 737s.
- **Air Force One Logistics:** Elon Musk confirmed that he, Jensen Huang, and Donald Trump flew together on Air Force One after picking Jensen up in Alaska.
- **Truth Social Mix-Up:** Trump corrected initial CNBC reports, confirming Jensen was welcome despite not receiving a direct personal invitation initially.
---
[04:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=285s) Jensen's Uniform, Executive Branding, and Aging Strategy
Inspecting Jensen Huang's travel wardrobe, the hosts joke about his packing list consisting entirely of leather jackets and iconic sneakers. They discuss how adopting a strict "uniform"—much like Steve Jobs's black turtleneck or Palmer Luckey's Hawaiian shirt—compounds into a powerful personal brand and lore. The hosts note a recent milestone for Luckey's company, Anduril, which raised a massive Series H funding round at a valuation over $50–60 billion, proving the power of iconic founder branding.
However, the hosts highlight a hidden risk of wearing the exact same outfit for decades: if an executive never changes their look, a viral clip of them saying something foolish 10 years ago will look like it was filmed yesterday. For instance, an AI CEO who gave a sci-fi rant about *The Terminator* a decade ago might have evolved their views today, but uninterrupted clothing choices make old hot takes look recent. To create visual distance over time, executives either need to overhaul their wardrobe or follow the "Jeff Bezos playbook"—getting radically jacked or going bald so the public immediately recognizes an older clip. The hosts joke about "Jensen at 320 lbs lean" wearing flowing leather trench coats or robes.
- **Anduril Series H:** Palmer Luckey's defense startup reached a Series H valuation benchmark of $51–$61 billion.
- **The Bezos Playbook:** Changing physical appearance or wardrobe helps executives distance themselves from outdated media clips recorded years prior.
---
[07:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=462s) The Qatar "Golden Palace" Air Force One and Fuel Efficiency Trivia
The hosts review video footage of the opulent "Golden Palace" 747—the luxurious Air Force One jet gifted by Qatar. Inspecting its sky-yacht interior, which features high-end aesthetics and an onboard chessboard, they joke about whether world leaders use it to play literal 4D chess.
This leads to a tangent on aviation logistics and airplane paint economics. Dark colors like black absorb heat and burn significantly more fuel, which is why most commercial airlines stick to white exteriors. They poke fun at Spirit Airlines' bright yellow fleet, lightheartedly asking if the paint job contributed to their financial troubles. The hosts speculate whether a gold or mirrored exterior could reflect sunlight and boost fuel efficiency, noting that the United States Air Force has operated silver bombers and jets in the past.
- **Qatar Gifted 747:** The luxurious "Golden Palace" jet features custom sky-yacht interiors, including a chess setup.
- **Aircraft Color Physics:** Black or dark paint jobs increase thermal absorption and fuel consumption, driving the industry standard toward white or reflective finishes.
---
[09:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=575s) Stakes of the Summit: Rare Earths, AI Guardrails, and Supermicro
Turning to the Wall Street Journal editorial board's analysis, the hosts dissect the core geopolitical stakes of the Beijing meeting. The official US narrative focuses on achieving "stability," a term central to Trump's personal brand as a self-proclaimed "stable genius." However, the WSJ warns that personal rapport cannot easily overcome Xi Jinping's broader strategic ambitions. On trade, the best realistic outcome is maintaining the status quo—a tariff truce coupled with assurances from Beijing not to hold the global rare earth supply hostage again. In return, Xi seeks access to advanced US semiconductor exports to bolster China's AI capabilities, where Beijing currently trails the US by an estimated six months.
The editorial notes that while the US administration wants to establish AI safety guardrails, formal arms-control agreements with Beijing are unlikely to be effective. Beijing has been engaging in "industrial-scale theft of American AI models," highlighted by recent Department of Justice indictments. The hosts specifically recall the indictment involving a tech executive associated with Supermicro, who allegedly ran a scheme shipping high-end AI chips to China disguised with fake labels and hairdryer/heater classifications to evade export controls.
- **AI Gap:** Current industry estimates place China's AI capabilities roughly 6 months behind the United States.
- **Supermicro Indictment:** DoJ actions target illicit diversion schemes that used fraudulent shipping labels on hardware to smuggle high-end chips into China.
- **Rare Earths Trade-off:** The US aims to secure stable access to rare earth minerals in exchange for predictable tariff policies.
---
[12:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=750s) Absent AI Leaders and the Taiwan "Flytrap"
The hosts point out a striking disconnect between Silicon Valley and the Beijing summit: key leaders from the top AI frontier labs are completely absent. Sundar Pichai and Demis Hassabis (Google/DeepMind), Dario Amodei (Anthropic), and Sam Altman (OpenAI) were not included in the delegation. While executives like Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Meta's Dina Powell McCormick are present, the absence of frontier lab CEOs means the summit is focused on immediate semiconductor supply chains and trade mechanics rather than grand existential questions about post-AGI/ASI geopolitics, fast-takeoff scenarios, or the "China Wakes Up 2027" timeline. Addressing a viewer comment about Meta's presence—given its banned status in China—the hosts suggest Meta is maintaining a footprint due to its $2 billion acquisition of Manus, though $2 billion remains a rounding error on the global stage.
Finally, the hosts detail the diplomatic "Venus flytrap" Xi Jinping is setting regarding Taiwan. Xi is pushing the US to formally *oppose* Taiwanese independence (moving away from the historic posture of simply *not supporting* it) and seeking veto power over US arm sales to the island. While Xi will frame this as a minor wording tweak that lets Trump claim credit for securing regional peace, the WSJ warns it would dismantle decades of delicate US diplomacy that has successfully deterred conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
- **Missing AI CEOs:** Sam Altman (OpenAI), Dario Amodei (Anthropic), Demis Hassabis (DeepMind), and Sundar Pichai (Google) were absent from the delegation.
- **Taiwan Pivot:** Xi Jinping is lobbying for the US to shift its posture from "not supporting" to explicitly "opposing" Taiwanese independence, alongside gaining a veto on US weapons sales.
- **Meta's China Footprint:** Meta's presence is tied in part to its $2 billion Manus acquisition and ongoing interest in regional tech talent.
Here is a detailed, faithful walkthrough of this section of the transcript:
[15:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=944s) Trump-Xi Summit Analysis and Geopolitical Stakes
An economic or geopolitical conflict over Taiwan would be a total catastrophe. Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely be watching closely during his upcoming summit with Donald Trump to see if the U.S. President signals any hesitation to defend Taiwan in a crisis. Because Trump's diplomacy is deeply personal and unpredictable, regional allies like Japan are watching with extreme anxiety. Observers note that skipping a stop in Tokyo prior to visiting Beijing could be seen as a strategic mistake, as a visit to Japan would signal U.S. solidarity. Furthermore, while Trump has stated he will raise the case of political prisoner Jimmy Lai—the 78-year-old Hong Kong publisher convicted on dubious charges—Xi is unlikely to release him unless he believes the request is more than a mere token gesture.
The U.S. also seeks China's cooperation on Iran, or at least an agreement for Beijing to stop actively assisting Tehran. Retired Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery recently suggested that Trump should directly confront Xi on whether China is supplying intelligence to Iran. A *Wall Street Journal* editorial highlighted that the Chinese Communist Party remains the primary industrial and financial backbone for rogue states ranging from Russia to Iran and North Korea. While the first Trump administration viewed China as a broad strategic adversary across military, economic, and ideological domains, the second administration appears to be seeking a détente, with Trump acting as the "chief dove." This approach could be viable if the U.S. uses the truce to diversify its supply chain for rare earth elements and pass a $1.5 trillion defense budget to rearm. Meanwhile, commentators speculate that major deals have already been struck behind closed doors, making the high-profile summit largely ceremonial—since bringing top industrial leaders on such a trip without guaranteed progress would be a major public embarrassment.
- China continues to serve as the main industrial base and financier for Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
- A proposed U.S. defense budget of $1.5 trillion would be required to rearm effectively during any diplomatic détente.
- Jimmy Lai is 78 years old and remains imprisoned in Hong Kong on politically motivated charges.
---
[17:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1067s) Anthropic's Model Access, U.S. AI Policy, and the "Mythos Moment" in China
In major tech policy developments, Anthropic is granting Japan's three mega-banks—MUFG Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (SMBC), and Mizuho Bank—access to Claude Mythos as early as late May. Mythos is a high-powered AI model capable of discovering and exploiting software security flaws significantly faster than prior tools. Access was previously restricted to roughly 50 elite organizations worldwide, including U.S. banks and U.K. government bodies. The decision follows instructions from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to harden national infrastructure against advanced AI risks, and access was likely finalized during a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
This decision highlights a glaring contradiction in U.S. policy. While Secretary Bessent personally vets and approves every organization granted access to Mythos due to severe national security risks, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is simultaneously flying on Air Force One with President Trump to Beijing to sell AI chips to China. These chips could allow China to develop its own Mythos-level capabilities. Critics like Chris Maguire argue that the administration’s AI policy is incoherent, though others suggest this strategy is part of a larger, ongoing trade negotiation.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has estimated that Chinese open-source AI efforts are only about six months behind models like Mythos. This raises questions about how a "Mythos moment" will unfold in China. In the U.S., Anthropic faced intense pushback and nationalization threats from government officials (including the Department of War and Emil Michael) before a looser democratic balance was established. In contrast, China’s AI landscape features closely held companies like High-Flyer (the parent company of DeepSeek). DeepSeek's founder maintains majority voting and economic control, having invested $1 billion of his own money with minimal dilution—a stark contrast to Anthropic's heavily diluted, multi-stakeholder structure. If Chinese models catch up, the Chinese Communist Party may exert aggressive control over these private founders, potentially consolidating hardware like Nvidia Blackwell GPUs into centralized, state-run data centers.
- The three Japanese banks receiving access to Claude Mythos are MUFG Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, and Mizuho Bank.
- Claude Mythos was previously restricted to around 50 corporations and government organizations worldwide.
- Estimates place China's open-source AI capabilities roughly six to twelve months behind frontier U.S. models.
- DeepSeek's founder funded the project with $1 billion of personal capital, maintaining firm control over the entity.
---
[23:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1401s) Space and Marine Data Centers
SpaceX and Google are in talks to partner on launching orbital data centers, providing a significant boost to SpaceX as it prepares for a historic public listing. Google is negotiating rocket launch deals to deploy tiny machine racks into orbit as part of its "Project Labs" moonshot initiative, aiming to test prototype satellites by 2027. Google CEO Sundar Pichai noted that while the timeline is cautious, orbital data centers could be viewed as a standard architecture in a decade or so. Google remains an early investor in SpaceX, holding a 6.1% equity stake. Additionally, because the OpenAI Startup Fund was an early investor in Cursor's seed round, OpenAI indirectly holds financial exposure to SpaceX, creating an intertwined web where major tech competitors hold stakes in each other.
The discussion also touches on alternative locations for massive AI computing infrastructure to avoid local regulatory hurdles and "NIMBYism" (Not In My Back Yard). The hosts banter about deploying blimp-based data centers over the Pacific Ocean—noting that Alphabet co-founder Sergey Brin owns a blimp company and Amazon's Jeff Bezos has Blue Origin—or placing data centers at the bottom of the ocean. While deep-sea deployments benefit from free space and abundant ocean cooling, powering them presents a challenge: burning fossil fuels underwater would require submerged diving bells or oxygen supplies, leaving geothermal energy as the primary alternative.
- Google holds a 6.1% stake in SpaceX from an early investment round.
- Google’s Project Labs aims to launch prototype data center satellites into orbit by 2027.
- SpaceX’s upcoming IPO this summer is anticipated to be the largest public listing of all time.
---
[26:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1604s) Accelerating Inflation, Energy Shocks, and Stagflation Risks
Fresh economic data reveals a worrying spike in inflation, with consumer prices accelerating to 3.8% and April producer prices jumping 6% year-over-year (far exceeding the 4.8% consensus estimate). A major catalyst is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has created severe energy market shocks and supply chain bottlenecks. Beyond energy, the crisis is impacting raw materials like aluminum due to Middle Eastern smelter disruptions, leading to shortages of everyday goods like canned Diet Coke.
Surging energy prices have driven inflation expectations to multi-year highs. The break-even rate—the yield gap between standard U.S. Treasuries and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)—has reached its highest point since October 2022, signaling that investors expect annual inflation to average 2.7% over the next five years. This setup points toward a dangerous stagflation scenario: while AI capital expenditures and data center investments mask overall economic weakness, the "real economy" is growing at a sluggish 0.1% while burdened by nearly 3% inflation. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell steps down after navigating previous economic turbulence, incoming leadership like Kevin Warsh will face an extraordinarily difficult macroeconomic environment.
- April Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6.0% year-over-year versus a 4.8% estimate.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated to 3.8%.
- The bond market break-even rate indicates expected average inflation of 2.7% over the next five years.
- Non-AI real GDP growth has slowed to just 0.1%, raising concerns over looming stagflation.
## Notable quotes
> [00:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=2s) A flex given Boeing's enduring dominance in manufacturing large commercial aircraft, whereas drone giants like DJI have been unable to scale up to build a 747.
> [01:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=70s) Silicon Valley's typical stakes with the sheer scale of global geopolitics. In tech, a $2 billion acquisition or a $40 billion revenue line is considered massive, but on the world stage, leaders are bargaining over a trillion-dollar oil market, global rare earth supplies, and critical semiconductor supply chains.
> [04:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=285s) If an executive never changes their look, a viral clip of them saying something foolish 10 years ago will look like it was filmed yesterday.
> [04:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=285s) The Jeff Bezos playbook—getting radically jacked or going bald so the public immediately recognizes an older clip.
> [07:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=462s) Dark colors like black absorb heat and burn significantly more fuel, which is why most commercial airlines stick to white exteriors.
> [09:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=575s) Industrial-scale theft of American AI models
> [12:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=750s) China Wakes Up 2027
> [15:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=944s) Chief dove
> [17:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1067s) Claude Mythos as early as late May. Mythos is a high-powered AI model capable of discovering and exploiting software security flaws significantly faster than prior tools.
> [17:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1067s) Mythos moment
> [26:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_-mzZ21RD4&t=1604s) Real economy is growing at a sluggish 0.1% while burdened by nearly 3% inflation.
## Mentioned
Alphabet, Amazon, Anduril, Anthropic, Apple, BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Origin, Boeing, Beijing, China, Citi, Claude Mythos, Cursor, DJI, Dario Amodei, David Solomon, Demis Hassabis, Department of Justice, Department of War, Diet Coke, Dina Powell McCormick, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Emil Michael, Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, Google, Google DeepMind, High-Flyer, DeepSeek, Iran, Japan, Jane Fraser, Jeff Bezos, Jensen Huang, Jerome Powell, Jimmy Lai, John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Kelly Ortberg, Kevin Warsh, Larry Fink, MUFG Bank, Mizuho Bank, Manus, Mark Cuban, Mark Montgomery, Mark Zuckerberg, Meta, North Korea, Nvidia, Nvidia Blackwell, OpenAI, OpenAI Startup Fund, Palmer Luckey, Qatar, Russia, SMBC, Sam Altman, Sanae Takaichi, Satya Nadella, Scott Bessent, Sergey Brin, Silicon Valley, SpaceX, Spirit Airlines, Stephen Schwarzman, Sundar Pichai, Supermicro, TBPN, Taiwan, Tesla, The New York Times, Tim Cook, United States Air Force, Wall Street Journal, Xi Jinping
特朗普携科技巨头赴北京峰会 面临AI与通胀风险
面对国内滞胀压力，美国在北京的高风险贸易谈判中可能危及其AI遏制战略以及对台长期威慑力。
本期节目深入剖析了唐纳德·特朗普与习近平在北京举行的高风险峰会，重点探讨了阵容显赫的美国企业巨头代表团、半导体贸易紧张局势以及围绕台湾的外交姿态转变。节目审视了Anthropic向日本各银行定向推出Claude Mythos的情况，以及更广泛的美国AI政策矛盾和中国在开源AI模型上的快速进展。此外，主持人还评估了太空和海洋数据中心等未来算力战略，最后探讨了能源冲击推动下不断攀升的通胀数据以及迫在眉睫的滞胀风险。
特朗普与习近平在北京举行高级别峰会，马斯克、库克、黄仁勋等美方商业巨头随行，核心经贸谈判聚焦于确保美国稀土矿产供应与半导体出口及关税稳定。 (0:02)
Sam Altman、Dario Amodei 及 Sundar Pichai 等前沿 AI 实验室高管罕见缺席本次北京峰会代表团，使讨论焦点更偏向既有芯片供应链而非通用人工智能（AGI）的地缘政治影响。 (12:30)
遵循日本首相高市早苗强化国家关键基础设施安全防御的指令，Anthropic 决定向三菱日联、三井住友和瑞穗三大日本银行开放 Claude Mythos 访问权限。 (17:47)
受霍尔木兹海峡关闭引发的能源冲击影响，美国 4 月 PPI 同比跃升 6.0%、CPI 升至 3.8%，在非 AI 领域实际 GDP 仅增长 0.1% 的背景下滞胀风险加剧。 (26:44)
Reading summary
The high-stakes Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reflects the heavy entanglement of U.S. corporate giants in geopolitical bargaining, even as Washington faces growing internal contradictions in AI export controls and worsening macroeconomic stagflation.
Corporate Titans and Geopolitics at Beijing Summit (0:02)
The Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping took on the character of an American corporate showcase, featuring an executive delegation that included Elon Musk (Tesla), Tim Cook (Apple), Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Kelly Ortberg (Boeing), David Solomon (Goldman Sachs), Stephen Schwarzman (Blackstone), Larry Fink (BlackRock), Jane Fraser (Citi), and Dina Powell McCormick (Meta). Commentators interpreted Ortberg's presence as an intentional demonstration of Boeing's entrenched lead in large commercial aircraft manufacturing over regional drone and aviation competitors.
Logistical attention centered on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who boarded Air Force One during an Alaska refueling stop alongside Trump and Musk following contradictory reports from CNBC and a clarification on Truth Social. With Nvidia positioned at the epicenter of U.S.-China semiconductor sanctions, Huang's presence elevated discussions from standard tech acquisitions to high-stakes negotiations over critical microchip supply chains and global resource flows.
Bargaining Over Taiwan, Rare Earths, and Defense (9:35)
According to the Wall Street Journal editorial board, the realistic ceiling for the summit is maintaining the status quo: negotiating a tariff truce and securing reliable access to Chinese rare earths in exchange for expanded semiconductor exports. China's AI ecosystem is estimated to lag the U.S. by roughly six months, and Beijing continues seeking high-end chips despite Department of Justice indictments targeting illicit diversion schemes, such as mislabeling hardware as heaters by individuals linked to Supermicro. Meanwhile, top frontier AI laboratory leaders—including Sam Altman (OpenAI), Dario Amodei (Anthropic), Demis Hassabis (DeepMind), and Sundar Pichai (Google)—were absent, leaving talks focused on hardware supply chains rather than long-term artificial general intelligence governance.
Xi Jinping is also lobbying Washington to shift its formal posture from 'not supporting' to explicitly 'opposing' Taiwanese independence, alongside demanding veto power over U.S. arms sales. Analysts warn this concession would dismantle decades of regional deterrence. Commentators noted that while an administration détente could theoretically buy time for the U.S. to diversify critical mineral supplies and fund a proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget, China remains the core industrial and financial backer of Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Contradictions in Frontier AI Export Policy (17:47)
U.S. technology strategy showed visible internal divergence as Anthropic granted Japan's three mega-banks—MUFG Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (SMBC), and Mizuho Bank—access to its advanced Claude Mythos model following directives from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Because Mythos can identify and exploit software vulnerabilities far faster than prior tools, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has personally vetted authorized institutions due to national security risks.
Critics pointed out the contradiction between Washington heavily restricting allied access to Mythos while simultaneously permitting Nvidia to negotiate advanced chip sales in Beijing that could assist China in reaching parity. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei estimates Chinese open-source models trail leading U.S. systems by only six to twelve months. Unlike Anthropic's multi-stakeholder governance, Chinese competitors like DeepSeek rely on concentrated founder control—backed by $1 billion in personal capital—raising concerns that the Chinese state could swiftly consolidate private hardware, including Nvidia Blackwell chips, into centralized facilities.
Orbital Computing and Intertwined Tech Investments (23:21)
To bypass terrestrial power constraints and local regulatory friction, tech companies are exploring alternative data center environments. SpaceX and Google are negotiating launch agreements to test prototype satellite server racks in orbit by 2027 under Google's Project Labs. Although Google CEO Sundar Pichai indicated that orbital infrastructure remains roughly a decade away from becoming a standardized architecture, the talks bolster SpaceX ahead of an anticipated initial public offering.
The venture also illustrates the intertwined financial relationships among major tech rivals: Google maintains an early 6.1% equity stake in SpaceX, while OpenAI holds indirect financial exposure to SpaceX via the OpenAI Startup Fund's early investment in Cursor.
Energy Shocks and Looming Stagflation Threats (26:44)
Macroeconomic data points to accelerating stagflation risks in the United States, exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting energy shock and supply chain snarls have spilled into basic commodities, causing disruptions in aluminum production and packaging shortages. April Producer Price Index inflation surged to 6.0% year-over-year against a 4.8% consensus forecast, while Consumer Price Index inflation rose to 3.8%.
Bond markets responded by pushing the five-year Treasury-TIPS break-even rate to 2.7%, its highest level since October 2022. While heavy capital spending on AI infrastructure continues to buoy headline economic figures, real GDP growth across the non-AI economy has decelerated to 0.1%, presenting an extraordinarily difficult landscape for incoming Federal Reserve leadership following Jerome Powell's planned departure.
While the Beijing summit attempts to establish a transactional balance on tariffs and critical minerals, inconsistent technology security policies and mounting stagflationary pressures from Middle Eastern energy disruptions leave both strategic détente and domestic economic stability highly vulnerable.
[0:02] A flex given Boeing's enduring dominance in manufacturing large commercial aircraft, whereas drone giants like DJI have been unable to scale up to build a 747.
[1:10] Silicon Valley's typical stakes with the sheer scale of global geopolitics. In tech, a $2 billion acquisition or a $40 billion revenue line is considered massive, but on the world stage, leaders are bargaining over a trillion-dollar oil market, global rare earth supplies, and critical semiconductor supply chains.
[4:45] If an executive never changes their look, a viral clip of them saying something foolish 10 years ago will look like it was filmed yesterday.
[4:45] The Jeff Bezos playbook—getting radically jacked or going bald so the public immediately recognizes an older clip.
[7:42] Dark colors like black absorb heat and burn significantly more fuel, which is why most commercial airlines stick to white exteriors.
[9:35] Industrial-scale theft of American AI models
[12:30] China Wakes Up 2027
[12:30] Venus flytrap
[15:44] Chief dove
[17:47] Claude Mythos as early as late May. Mythos is a high-powered AI model capable of discovering and exploiting software security flaws significantly faster than prior tools.
[17:47] Mythos moment
[23:21] Project Labs
[26:44] Real economy is growing at a sluggish 0.1% while burdened by nearly 3% inflation.
Original transcript
[0:02] The big news this week and I'm sure what
[0:04] you know everyone will be focused on is
[0:06] of course on the cover of the Wall
[0:08] Street Journal. That's the Trump Xi
[0:11] Jinping summit that's happening in
[0:13] Beijing.
[0:15] Trump and Xi Jinping vie for wins at
[0:17] summit. They're duking it out and Trump
[0:20] brought They both brought a big crew
[0:22] with them.
[0:23] >> A team.
[0:24] >> Yeah, Trump brought
[0:25] >> Geopolitics.
[0:26] >> A couple couple
[0:27] >> Team sport.
[0:28] >> couple political people that we won't
[0:30] even care about but the business leaders
[0:32] are what is particularly interesting. So
[0:34] we got Elon Musk from Tesla, Tim Cook
[0:37] from Apple, Jensen from Nvidia, Kelly
[0:39] Ortberg from Boeing. Little flex there
[0:42] cuz Boeing has been able to maintain the
[0:44] lead in manufacturing large planes for a
[0:46] very long time.
[0:48] DJI has not been able to scale up and
[0:50] make a 747. What's going on over there?
[0:52] David Solomon from Goldman Sachs,
[0:53] Stephen Schwarzman from Blackstone,
[0:55] Larry Fink from BlackRock, Jane Fraser
[0:58] from City and Dina Powell McCormick from
[1:00] Meta.
[1:02] So
[1:03] we should read through
[1:05] the stakes of the Trump Xi Jinping
[1:07] summit in the Wall Street Journal from
[1:10] the Wall Street Journal
[1:10] >> into that, let's let's get into the more
[1:12] important stuff cuz
[1:14] do you think Jensen was always coming on
[1:16] the trip, right? There's been some
[1:17] speculation he got on
[1:19] he got on the plane in Alaska.
[1:21] >> Oh yeah.
[1:22] >> Was that just the most convenient place
[1:24] for him to get on or was he a late
[1:25] addition?
[1:26] >> I don't know. Why would he have been
[1:27] been a late addition? I don't I don't
[1:29] know. It seems like
[1:30] >> Cuz there was there was some reporting
[1:31] earlier this week
[1:32] >> the largest company in the in America.
[1:34] >> but but there have been statements made
[1:37] from what I saw that he wasn't going
[1:38] after.
[1:39] >> Yes, well so Trump had a Truth Social
[1:41] post that said CNBC incorrectly reported
[1:43] that the great Jensen Huang of Nvidia
[1:45] was not invited but then he he corrected
[1:47] it. He said he didn't invite him
[1:48] personally.
[1:49] >> I don't know. These schedules move
[1:50] around. It's got to be really really
[1:51] difficult if you're the leader of the
[1:52] biggest company in the world to move
[1:55] things around and and commit to this. I
[1:57] don't know.
[1:58] >> what's more important for Jensen and his
[2:01] objective?
[2:02] >> No, of course it's critical importance,
[2:03] but uh at the same time, there might
[2:06] have just been other moving pieces of
[2:07] like, okay, when can he go? Where will
[2:09] he arrive from? Where will he get picked
[2:10] up from? I don't know. These things
[2:12] always like shift. I I don't have a good
[2:14] thesis. I mean, other than the fact that
[2:15] like that is the company that has maybe
[2:17] the most tension between the trade deals
[2:19] with China. Like Apple obviously does a
[2:21] ton of business in China, but uh has
[2:23] been much less of a focus in the chip
[2:26] sanctions. And so, having Jensen there
[2:28] is a little bit more of a discussion
[2:30] point. What do you think?
[2:31] >> I mean, I I think on China, like the
[2:32] Nvidia stuff seems like pretty fine now,
[2:35] but what but yeah, but Meta I think has
[2:37] like some conflict, right? Cuz I mean,
[2:38] Meta's yeah, maybe it's like not that
[2:39] big of an acquisition on like market
[2:41] cap-wise, but
[2:42] >> Yeah.
[2:43] >> They're blocking it.
[2:44] >> of these things, you know, we always say
[2:45] see in the in the context of Silicon
[2:47] Valley, it's like a $2 billion deal or a
[2:49] company that's doing 40 billion in
[2:51] revenue. And then you get over there and
[2:53] the stakes are like, you know, a
[2:54] trillion-dollar oil market or like all
[2:56] the rare earths in the world. And
[2:58] and it's you know, geopolitical
[3:00] conflict, which is obviously a much
[3:02] bigger deal. And so, there might be more
[3:04] reporting that comes out about Jensen's
[3:07] goals there, what actually happened, how
[3:10] he found his way onto uh Air Force One,
[3:13] but that was confirmed by Elon Musk,
[3:15] right? He said that Elon, Jensen, and
[3:17] Trump were all on Air Force One together
[3:19] flying over. Um I certainly want to
[3:22] wouldn't want to get there. I would want
[3:23] to arrive on the cool plane. Can we play
[3:24] the video? Trump arrives in Beijing with
[3:26] Elon Musk and Jensen in tow. I guess the
[3:29] rest of the business leaders came
[3:31] separately. Their arrival with uh are
[3:34] those cheerleaders or something? I don't
[3:36] know what
[3:37] They They They seem to be waving Oh,
[3:39] flags. They're waving flags. That makes
[3:40] sense. Well, there they go, walking down
[3:42] the red carpet. Air Force One is truly
[3:45] stately. There's
[3:47] It's so It's so disappointing that the
[3:50] economics of the airline industry didn't
[3:52] just get bigger and bigger and so you
[3:54] find yourself very rarely on 747s unless
[3:57] you're flying across the world because
[3:59] they do have such a presence and there's
[4:01] spaces inside.
[4:03] But we have we have been
[4:05] you know
[4:06] crammed down into the 737s for pretty
[4:09] much everything.
[4:09] >> Where they give a proper tour of Air
[4:11] Force One or is it kind of locked down?
[4:13] >> I think they've done tours. I mean there
[4:16] are several Air Force Ones I believe
[4:17] that are on display at presidential
[4:19] libraries and so you can go and tour
[4:21] them. There might be one at the
[4:22] Smithsonian. I'm not exactly sure but
[4:25] I'm pretty sure you can go walk around
[4:26] old ones. I wouldn't be surprised if
[4:28] they keep the the current spec like
[4:31] somewhat secretive.
[4:33] There we go.
[4:34] This is very grainy footage. It looks
[4:36] like oh maybe it's just the middle of
[4:38] the night.
[4:38] >> me of Dune.
[4:40] >> Dune. Arrakis. That's Taiwan though.
[4:42] Anyway, let's go through Jensen's pack
[4:45] list. He was having trouble thinking of
[4:47] what was he going to bring. Of course he
[4:50] landed on just a ton of leather jackets.
[4:53] The back
[4:53] >> And even the sneakers I feel like are
[4:55] pretty iconic.
[4:56] >> Yeah.
[4:57] Like the uniform is really starting to
[4:59] compound where it used to just be the
[5:01] jacket. Soon we will know the exact
[5:04] brand and specs of the the pants as well
[5:06] as the shoes and the whole Jensen
[5:09] uniform will be out in full force.
[5:11] >> Yeah, the clothing industry doesn't want
[5:13] you to know this but
[5:15] wearing just just getting a few pieces
[5:17] of clothes that you like and then
[5:18] wearing them until they fall apart is
[5:21] incredibly underrated. Not saying that's
[5:22] what Jensen's doing but it's pretty
[5:24] funny.
[5:25] I I tend to wear almost the exact same
[5:27] thing every day and so sometimes people
[5:30] on the team will come in and be like oh
[5:31] we're matching today.
[5:33] >> Mhm.
[5:33] >> Like every day you dress like this you
[5:35] will match with me.
[5:36] >> Yeah, that's right. That's right.
[5:38] Um
[5:39] there's obviously a personal brand
[5:40] benefit to adopting a uniform. We've
[5:44] seen it with Jensen, Steve Jobs with the
[5:45] black turtleneck, Palmer Lucky with the
[5:49] with the Hawaiian shirt. Big news from
[5:51] Anduril today. New round series. They're
[5:54] running out of letters. Series H?
[5:55] >> H.
[5:55] >> Series H. 51, 61 billion, something like
[5:58] that. Uh fantastic progress. You adopt
[6:01] the uniform, you become more iconic, you
[6:02] become more recognizable outside of your
[6:04] face, and that builds your personal
[6:06] brand, your lore, and it helps you sort
[6:08] of differentiate and stand out, right?
[6:09] The flip side, the thing you got to
[6:11] watch out for is that if you are always
[6:13] dressed exactly the same and you never
[6:15] switch your wardrobe, clips of you
[6:18] saying something a decade ago can go
[6:21] viral. And if you're not if you're aging
[6:23] gracefully, it will look like you said
[6:25] them just yesterday. And that can be a
[6:27] big problem if, say, you're an AI CEO
[6:30] who a decade ago was reading some sci-fi
[6:32] and thinking like, "Man, there's
[6:33] something to this Terminator thing." And
[6:35] then maybe in the past decade you've
[6:36] done a lot of work, you've investigated
[6:38] the systems, you have a more informed
[6:40] position and opinion. Well, the old
[6:43] video of you still looks like you today.
[6:45] And so, there might be something to
[6:48] leveling up the wardrobe and changing
[6:50] the wardrobe over time that actually
[6:51] creates more distance between, "Oh,
[6:54] well, clearly that was
[6:56] >> So, this is indirect way of saying you
[6:57] want Jensen to be in a leather sort of
[7:00] like, you know, sort of trench coat
[7:01] eventually. Like flowing robes.
[7:03] >> Well, the easiest thing to do is go
[7:05] bald. That's what Jeff Bezos did. If he
[7:07] was saying some crazy stuff back when he
[7:09] was building Amazon in the '90s and he's
[7:11] changed his opinion, it will be very
[7:13] evident from new clips that, "Oh, that's
[7:15] an old one because it's very it's very
[7:17] iconic." His older look. Now, his new
[7:19] look, he looks transformed. He looks
[7:21] very different.
[7:22] >> Well, I I don't think Jensen has to go
[7:23] bald, but he can do the the Bezos
[7:25] playbook, which is just get like get
[7:26] really jacked.
[7:27] >> Get really jacked, yeah.
[7:27] >> he gets more jacked, you'll just see,
[7:29] "Oh, yeah, there's I mean, he's looking
[7:30] like 320 lean right there."
[7:32] >> There you go.
[7:32] >> Like that must be pretty decent.
[7:34] >> 320. Jensen at 320 would be electric.
[7:39] Well, he's
[7:39] >> we have a video of the Air Force One
[7:42] Golden Palace.
[7:43] >> Pull it up.
[7:44] >> is the Golden Palace?
[7:45] >> That's the
[7:46] >> what they call the interior these days?
[7:48] >> the Air Force One that was gifted by
[7:50] Qatar.
[7:51] >> Okay. And that one is never going to be
[7:53] in use,
[7:54] to the library, I think. Is that the
[7:56] idea, or is it going to get flown
[7:57] around? Well, let's let's watch the
[7:59] >> Presumably, it's going to be used.
[8:01] >> Golden Palace. Really
[8:03] particular aesthetics here.
[8:05] It looks like a normal 747 on the
[8:06] outside.
[8:08] >> I feel like isn't there a big
[8:10] There's a big swing in
[8:12] in
[8:13] fuel efficiency based on the color of
[8:14] the plane. If you paint your plane black
[8:17] cuz you think it looks cool, it will
[8:18] attract more heat, and you will burn a
[8:20] lot more fuel. And so, most companies go
[8:23] with white.
[8:25] Spirit Airlines went yellow. I don't
[8:27] know if that had anything to do with
[8:28] their downfall, but
[8:30] you would think is there a chance is
[8:32] there some weird economic logic where if
[8:34] you paint it gold, the gold will reflect
[8:37] the sunlight and increase fuel
[8:40] efficiency.
[8:41] >> exterior is not gold.
[8:42] >> So, you should wrap your plane in like a
[8:44] mirror like
[8:45] >> Yeah, maybe.
[8:46] >> But yeah, I don't know if that actually
[8:48] >> That'd probably reflect the most, right?
[8:50] >> Mirrored plane. There are some silver
[8:53] There are some silver bombers and and
[8:55] jets that are in service across the
[8:58] United States Air Force. I can't call
[9:00] upon it right now.
[9:01] >> It really is a sky yacht.
[9:03] >> Chess board. You think anybody's played
[9:05] chess on there?
[9:06] >> 4D chess.
[9:10] Yeah, the whole plane is actually used
[9:11] for 4D chess, John.
[9:14] >> 4D chess.
[9:15] Uh AI is being put to good use
[9:18] visualizing Xi Jinping, Donald Trump,
[9:21] Elon Musk and Tim Cook having a beer and
[9:23] I guess a cigarette as well in in China
[9:25] somewhere. And then look who pulled up.
[9:27] If you scroll down, Jensen coming in
[9:29] from the back looking pretty good.
[9:31] Looking pretty good. Maybe not 320 lean,
[9:33] but he's certainly up there. Let's go
[9:35] through the Wall Street Journal's report
[9:38] and the what the editorial board had to
[9:39] say about the stakes of this summit.
[9:41] What what what's actually at stake? So,
[9:43] the United States wants stability,
[9:45] uh but Chinese Communist leader has
[9:47] larger ambitions, says the Wall Street
[9:50] Journal Journal's editorial board.
[9:52] President Trump visits visits Chinese
[9:54] President Xi Jinping in Beijing on
[9:56] Thursday, and the pre-meeting US spin is
[9:59] a search for stability, in quotes. Uh
[10:02] it's a nice idea as long as Mr. Trump
[10:04] doesn't think personal rapport can
[10:06] overcome Mr. Xi Jinping's anti-American
[10:09] purposes, says the Wall Street Journal.
[10:11] The agenda ranges from trade to
[10:13] technology to Iran. Uh on trade, the
[10:16] best outcome may be ratifying the status
[10:18] quo, a truce on tariffs with a promise
[10:21] from Beijing not to hold the world's
[10:23] rare earth supply hostage again. The
[10:25] markets, business leaders, no one wants
[10:27] chaos. Everyone can sort of work around
[10:30] a tariff plan if it's going to stay in
[10:33] peace for a long time.
[10:34] >> Trump to be coming in being like, "Look,
[10:36] guys, all I'm asking for is a little
[10:38] stability here."
[10:40] >> Yes.
[10:41] >> I just want
[10:42] stability. I want calmness. I don't I
[10:46] don't want any conflict.
[10:47] >> Yes. Didn't he famously call himself a
[10:49] stable genius? That he he stability has
[10:51] been part of his brand for a long time.
[10:53] Uh at least the one that he projects. Uh
[10:56] Mr. Xi Jinping, on the other on the
[10:58] other hand,
[10:59] uh China's weak economy is an incentive
[11:01] for him to cooperate, and he he'll hope
[11:04] to placate Mr. Trump with promises of
[11:06] buying more farm goods. Uh we talked
[11:09] about this previously. More aircraft and
[11:12] uh other things. Uh but Mr. Xi Jinping
[11:15] has made that promise before, and US
[11:18] farmers have never regained their lost
[11:19] market share in China. Rare earths
[11:21] ransom offer, uh the rare earths ransom
[11:25] offer may be more US advanced chip
[11:28] exports to China. Xi Jinping views
[11:31] artificial intelligence as a decisive
[11:33] theater in Beijing's competition with
[11:35] the United States, and he is trailing,
[11:37] though not by much, maybe 6 months by
[11:38] most people's estimates.
[11:40] Uh the administration wants to talk with
[11:42] Beijing about AI guardrails, and by all
[11:45] means keep the phone lines open. Uh but
[11:48] don't expect much from AI arms control.
[11:52] Uh and the best deterrent is US
[11:53] dominance on models and computing power.
[11:55] Beijing will be happy to make
[11:56] pronouncements about responsible
[11:57] stewardship and then pursue its own
[11:59] interests with little regard for norms
[12:01] or laws. Beijing is in is engaging in
[12:03] quote industrial-scale theft of American
[12:06] AI models, the Trump administration
[12:08] warned this year, and don't forget the
[12:09] Justice Department's indictment this
[12:11] year of a technology executive and
[12:13] associates allegedly running a
[12:15] sophisticated operation to divert
[12:17] high-end chips to China. That was uh
[12:19] >> Supermicro
[12:20] >> Supermicro. Yeah, they were doing the
[12:22] the the heater. What was it? The
[12:24] hairdryer?
[12:25] >> Yeah, they were putting the the fake
[12:27] >> shipping labels on there.
[12:28] >> big shipping labels. Noticeably absent
[12:30] from this trip are the key leaders of
[12:33] the top AI labs. Um I mean, Elon Musk is
[12:36] there, yes, and Jensen is there,
[12:39] obviously deeply involved in AI, as as
[12:41] are many of the other folks. Dina Powell
[12:43] McCormick at Meta, but you don't have
[12:45] Demis from Google, you don't have Sundar
[12:47] from Google, uh DeepMind. Uh you don't
[12:49] have Dario from Anthropic or Sam Altman
[12:51] from OpenAI. And each one of those
[12:53] leaders has their own complicated
[12:55] relationships with the federal
[12:57] government, and the Trump
[12:58] administration. Uh so, it's not shocking
[13:00] that they aren't there, but uh it does
[13:02] feel like there's a little bit of a
[13:04] disconnect between the conversation
[13:05] that's happening in Silicon Valley and
[13:07] the conversation that's happening on the
[13:08] global geopolitical stage at the highest
[13:10] levels. And so, uh if you were looking
[13:13] for answers to some of the biggest
[13:16] questions uh posed about how
[13:19] superintelligence will play out in the
[13:20] global stage, the AI 2027 scenario, the
[13:23] China wakes up scenario, uh you're going
[13:26] to have to keep waiting because uh
[13:29] that's not really what this this this is
[13:31] about. It's about maybe a little bit of
[13:34] semiconductor supply chain details and
[13:37] export restrictions, but not answering
[13:40] the big questions about what a US-China
[13:44] relationship looks like in a post-AGI
[13:46] world, a post-ASI world, a post
[13:50] you know, a fast takeoff scenario.
[13:52] >> OTP says, "Why is Meta there at all?"
[13:54] Good question. All Meta platform
[13:56] products have been banned for quite a
[13:58] long time. I don't think that will
[14:00] change, but they have this Manus thing.
[14:02] I think it might just be to show some
[14:04] friendliness, some presence there.
[14:07] Again, I'd be shocked if there's any
[14:10] time between Xi and Trump that gets
[14:12] dedicated to Manus cuz like $2 billion
[14:14] is really a rounding error when you look
[14:16] at all of these other issues.
[14:19] But uh
[14:20] >> But it is a big question for both
[14:21] economies. Not not only can American
[14:24] companies acquire Chinese companies that
[14:27] have relocated to Singapore and have
[14:29] sort of moved out. Like how how strict
[14:31] will China be around maintaining talent
[14:34] and restricting exports of whole
[14:37] companies and technologies?
[14:39] Their even like a single sentence on it
[14:41] from this talk will clearly resound
[14:44] throughout the industry. And so the
[14:46] Venus flytrap that Xi Jinping is setting
[14:49] for Mr. Trump is on Taiwan. Xi Jinping
[14:51] wants veto power over arm sales from the
[14:54] United States to Taiwan and he is
[14:56] pressing for the United States to
[14:59] formally oppose Taiwanese independence
[15:02] as opposed to the current posture of not
[15:05] supporting it. Xi Jinping will argue the
[15:07] tweak is of no great consequence to
[15:09] Americans and stoke and stroke Mr.
[15:12] Trump's ego that he can bring peace to
[15:15] one more troubled region. Yet that
[15:17] change would disrupt decades of US
[15:19] policy that for all its delicate
[15:21] diplomatic wording has held the peace.
[15:24] Taiwan is not the aggressor in the
[15:26] Taiwan Strait, uh Xi Jinping's fiction
[15:29] that opposing inde- independence would
[15:31] indulge. Mr. Trump might may not care
[15:34] about Taiwan's freedom or its example
[15:37] that a prosperous Chinese democracy is
[15:39] possible, uh but the president doesn't
[15:42] want a crisis on his watch, which would
[15:44] be an economic and geopolitical
[15:45] catastrophe. That's 100% accurate.
[15:48] >> You would never want an economic
[15:50] geopolitical catastrophe.
[15:52] >> No.
[15:53] >> On his watch.
[15:54] >> Uh Xi Jinping will be looking to see if
[15:55] Mr. Trump suggests he won't defend
[15:58] Taiwan in the clutch. Uh Trump's
[16:01] diplomacy is above all personal and no
[16:05] one can predict what he'll do in the
[16:06] room. Japan and others in the region are
[16:08] watching with anxiety, a reminder that
[16:09] US support for Taipei is an interest
[16:12] that informs America's alliances around
[16:14] the world. One mistake would be not stop
[16:17] not stopping in Tokyo to advance Beijing
[16:20] in the in advance of Beijing as a signal
[16:22] of solidarity with Japan. Trump has said
[16:24] he'll bring up the case of political
[16:26] prisoner Jimmy Lai, but Xi Jinping won't
[16:28] move to release the 78-year-old
[16:30] publisher who was convicted of bogus
[16:32] charges in Hong Kong unless he believes
[16:34] Trump's request is more than a token
[16:36] gesture. Uh the US wants China's help on
[16:39] Iran, and it would be an improvement if
[16:41] China at least stopped actively helping
[16:42] the enemy. Uh retired Navy Rear Admiral
[16:46] Mark Montgomery suggested last week that
[16:48] Mr. Trump should ask Xi Jinping directly
[16:51] if he's helping Iran with intelligence.
[16:53] And the Wall Street Journal goes on to
[16:55] say, "The larger context for this summit
[16:57] is that the CCP continues to be the main
[16:58] financier and industrial base for the
[17:00] world's bad actors from Russia to Iran
[17:02] to and North Korea. The first Trump
[17:04] administration understood China as a
[17:05] strategic adversary, military, economic,
[17:07] and ideological. The second Trump admin
[17:10] is searching for detente, the and Mr.
[17:13] Trump is the chief dove. Uh this has
[17:15] some merit if America spends the
[17:17] interlude diversifying its rare earth
[17:18] supply chain and passing a $1.5 trillion
[17:22] defense budget to rearm, says the Wall
[17:24] Street Journal editorial board. Anyway,
[17:25] >> Yeah, and a a lot of people are
[17:27] speculating that there's already been
[17:29] significant deals that have been made
[17:32] and that this whole thing is ceremonial
[17:33] because if if you bring if you make
[17:35] this, you know, huge trip and you bring
[17:38] all these leaders of industry and then
[17:41] you don't come away with some
[17:43] significant progress, like it just feels
[17:45] like a even bigger ouch.
[17:47] >> Uh, in somewhat related news,
[17:49] Anthropic has granted Mythos access to
[17:51] three major Japanese banks. Japan's
[17:54] three mega banks are set to gain access
[17:56] to Claude Mythos, the powerful
[17:58] artificial intelligence model developed
[18:00] by US startup Anthropic as soon as the
[18:02] end of May. The banks MUFG Bank,
[18:05] Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp and Mizuho
[18:08] Bank were likely informed of the move by
[18:10] the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
[18:12] in a meeting in Japan on Tuesday. This
[18:15] will mark the first time that a company
[18:16] from the East Asian nation has been
[18:18] granted access to Mythos, the AI model
[18:21] which can discover and exploit software
[18:22] security laws far faster than earlier
[18:25] tech had been restricted to just 50 or
[18:27] so corporates and organizations
[18:29] worldwide, including US firms, US banks,
[18:32] and UK government organizations. So,
[18:33] this isn't the first international
[18:35] expansion since the UK did have access,
[18:37] but now Japan does. Japanese Prime
[18:39] Minister Sanae Takaichi had instructed
[18:42] cabinet members to ramp up efforts to
[18:43] find cybersecurity weaknesses in Japan's
[18:46] infrastructure and minimize risks posed
[18:49] by cutting-edge AI models like Mythos.
[18:51] Access to Mythos was likely mentioned in
[18:53] her meeting with Bessent on Tuesday. And
[18:55] so, Chris Maguire says tonight the
[18:58] Secretary of the Treasury is personally
[19:01] vetting and approving each company that
[19:03] gets access to the most advanced US AI
[19:05] model because the risks of the model
[19:06] being misused to hurt US national
[19:09] security are so high. Also tonight,
[19:10] Jensen Wong is flying on Air Force One
[19:12] with President Trump to Beijing to sell
[19:14] China the AI chips it will use to
[19:16] develop its own mythos level AI model as
[19:18] soon as possible. The administration The
[19:20] administration's AI policy remains
[19:22] inconsistent and incoherent. It is
[19:24] impossible to justify these two
[19:25] approaches simultaneously. And
[19:28] Yeah, I I'm I'm still sympathetic to the
[19:30] the the export control take. At the same
[19:32] time, I feel like there's a larger
[19:34] negotiation that's going on, so I can
[19:36] sort of see both sides. But
[19:38] the interesting question that I've been
[19:39] noodling on that I haven't fully gotten
[19:41] to the bottom of is
[19:42] you know, Dario has said that
[19:44] you know, the the open-source community
[19:47] China is maybe six months behind mythos.
[19:50] And that seems to have fallen in line
[19:51] with the progress that we're seeing from
[19:53] all the American labs. And so the
[19:56] interesting question is what would the
[20:00] mythos moment look like in China?
[20:04] Because in America, there was a showdown
[20:06] with the Department of War and Dario
[20:08] going back and forth and Emil Michael.
[20:10] And there was threat of a supply chain
[20:11] designation, which it doesn't feel like
[20:13] ever really went anywhere because the
[20:16] business is still cooking and it's
[20:18] available on all the hyperscaler clouds
[20:20] and the model's being granted to Japan.
[20:23] And so it feels like the the the
[20:26] administration has backed off of that.
[20:28] But it was a really tense moment and it
[20:29] did call into question all these all
[20:31] these debates around what rules and what
[20:35] authorities should rest with the private
[20:37] sector versus the government.
[20:39] And America handled it in sort of a
[20:42] democratic way loosely.
[20:45] Sort of evaluating the technology,
[20:47] having the option to sort of nationalize
[20:50] and there's this bigger discussion
[20:51] around that. But in China, we've seen
[20:54] many times where tech companies have
[20:56] gotten really big and it feels like the
[20:58] the CCP is applying pressure to the
[21:00] CEOs. And High Flyer is
[21:03] the the company behind Deep Seek is in a
[21:05] very unique position where the founder
[21:08] has an immense amount of control and
[21:11] you know no matter what you think of the
[21:12] >> billion of his own money and
[21:15] a really low dilution round.
[21:16] >> I'm pretty sure he's a solo founder who
[21:18] like owns
[21:20] probably like majority control at least
[21:21] majority voting control if not majority
[21:23] economic control and that's a wildly
[21:25] different than Anthropic where Dario had
[21:27] like 15 co-founders, tons of dilution
[21:30] from from different funding rounds and
[21:34] you know we had talked about the SPV
[21:35] thing yesterday like there are lots of
[21:37] people on the cap table like Anthropic
[21:39] is going the way of like a typical
[21:41] American company where there are lots of
[21:42] different stakeholders. They might be a
[21:44] public company soon which means the
[21:46] government has more oversight as the SEC
[21:49] controls a lot of what they will do and
[21:51] so you're in this odd scenario where you
[21:55] you could have a similar level of
[21:56] technology deployed in China from a very
[22:00] closely held private company that is up
[22:03] against a much more aggressive
[22:07] government. If Deep Seek is able to
[22:08] catch up you know there's some there's
[22:10] some
[22:11] some evidence that like China's on a
[22:13] slightly shallower growth trajectory but
[22:16] still you know if you take Dario's claim
[22:19] of 6 months even if you extend that to a
[22:21] year like something is going to happen
[22:23] there where China is going to have their
[22:25] own Mythos moment and what that looks
[22:28] like and what we learn about it I I
[22:30] think is going to be dramatic and
[22:32] interesting and also it's just it's just
[22:35] odd that like there's this backdrop of
[22:36] all this stuff that's happening in AI in
[22:38] America and then there's going to be you
[22:41] know talks over like you guys want to
[22:43] buy more apples. Taylor do you have any
[22:45] any thoughts on on this and am I
[22:46] directly correct on the timeline or you
[22:49] know this
[22:49] >> Yeah, I mean it seems like something's
[22:51] going to happen here. There's a graph
[22:52] that shows that open source is
[22:53] increasingly getting like further and
[22:55] further away from frontier models. But
[22:56] yeah, I don't know it's just like so
[22:57] much to tell like what's actually going
[22:58] on in China like what like
[23:00] >> what what happens when the CCP starts to
[23:03] to have, you know, more control over a
[23:04] company, like what does it actually look
[23:05] like?
[23:06] >> Yeah.
[23:06] >> In in the instantiation.
[23:08] >> Can they continue to be pro-competition
[23:10] if they need to consolidate all of the
[23:12] black wells that are coming into the
[23:13] country into one data center that's
[23:15] networked together that can actually
[23:16] train a mythos level model?
[23:18] >> Right. That's uh
[23:20] That's That's a big question.
[23:21] >> SpaceX
[23:22] >> SpaceX
[23:23] >> Google are in talks to launch data
[23:24] centers in orbit.
[23:26] >> Take it
[23:26] >> The deal between the two tech titans
[23:28] would give a boost to SpaceX business
[23:30] ahead of a historic public listing.
[23:31] Google is in talks for a rocket launch
[23:34] deal as a search giant expands its own
[23:36] efforts to put orbital data centers in
[23:37] space. Launch deal would put the two
[23:39] companies in partnership as they gear up
[23:40] to compete on orbital data centers, an
[23:42] unproven technology that SpaceX CEO Elon
[23:45] Musk has said is the next frontier for
[23:47] his rocket company. Google is also in
[23:50] discussions about a potential deal with
[23:51] other rocket launch companies.
[23:53] >> Um they got to at least have a stocking
[23:56] horse.
[23:57] >> How are we not talking about blimp data
[23:59] centers yet?
[24:00] >> I know.
[24:00] >> Sergey Brin has a blimp company. You
[24:02] know, Bezos has a rocket launch company,
[24:04] so there's a very logical line from AWS
[24:07] to space data centers through Blue
[24:09] Origin. But we got to put some GPUs on
[24:13] the blimps. We got to start ma- mass
[24:15] manufacturing the blimps. This could be
[24:17] the thing. But I mean no no there's no
[24:19] NIMBYism in the middle of the Pacific
[24:22] Ocean if there's just a bunch of blimp
[24:23] data centers floating around in a
[24:25] circle.
[24:25] >> Well, I think if they're already in the
[24:26] ocean, you should go down as well, you
[24:28] know, Atlantis map.
[24:29] >> ling
[24:30] >> Yeah, like I feel like none of the ocean
[24:32] guys that are working on ocean robotics
[24:34] are thinking about like putting at
[24:36] the bottom of the ocean.
[24:37] >> Yeah, I mean it feels easier than uh
[24:40] than than uh space data center
[24:41] insurance. The space is free, the land
[24:44] is free, you don't run into the
[24:45] regulatory stuff. Energy, little bit
[24:47] tricky down there.
[24:48] >> Geothermal?
[24:49] >> Geothermal maybe. I don't know.
[24:51] >> No, there's there's oil and natural gas
[24:53] reserves on
[24:54] >> You have to bring oxygen there cuz how
[24:56] do you burn the oil and the natural gas
[24:59] under water?
[24:59] >> Big.
[25:00] Diving bell. Tube, yeah, scuba scuba
[25:03] tanks or something. Anyway.
[25:04] >> Speculative technology has been at the
[25:05] center of SpaceX's pitch to investors
[25:07] ahead of its planned IPO this summer,
[25:10] which is anticipated to be the largest
[25:12] IPO of all time. Last year, Google
[25:14] announced its own plans to launch
[25:15] prototype satellites by 2027 as part of
[25:18] a moonshot initiative called Project
[25:22] Labs,
[25:23] >> name.
[25:23] >> to build those satellites, tiny racks of
[25:26] machines, and have them in satellites,
[25:27] test them out, and then start scaling
[25:29] from there, says Sundar. There's no
[25:31] doubt to me that a decade or so away
[25:33] we'll be viewing it as a more normal way
[25:35] to build data centers. A little bit of
[25:38] an interesting timeline
[25:43] >> Elon's like, I thought we were saying
[25:44] >> There's no doubt to me that a decade or
[25:47] so away we'll be viewing it as a more
[25:50] normal way.
[25:52] >> Yeah.
[25:52] >> A decade or so away.
[25:54] >> He's being a little cautious in his
[25:55] language on his timelines, but
[25:57] >> Google was an early investor in SpaceX
[25:59] and owns 6.1%
[26:01] of the company.
[26:03] >> Yeah.
[26:03] >> Not bad. Um the other the other funny
[26:07] dynamic from SpaceX's deal making
[26:10] recently is given that the OpenAI
[26:13] startup fund was uh an early investor
[26:16] in, I believe, Cursor's seed round,
[26:19] >> True.
[26:19] >> million round. OpenAI, at least the
[26:22] startup fund, will have some meaningful
[26:24] exposure to SpaceX.
[26:26] >> SpaceX an OpenAI backed company. That's
[26:29] the way people will introduce it. OpenAI
[26:30] backed SpaceX IPO.
[26:32] >> Well, yeah, I thought it was it was
[26:33] quite interesting having that happen
[26:35] while the whole trial was going on.
[26:37] >> Everyone owns everything. Everyone has
[26:39] diversified into every every company at
[26:42] this point, basically. We can flip over
[26:44] to the other financial news that's
[26:46] making headlines on the cover of the
[26:48] Wall Street Journal. Inflation
[26:49] accelerated 3.8%
[26:52] last month.
[26:54] Not good news. Uh Joe Weisenthal has a
[26:57] couple posts, but uh one is just man,
[27:00] and he says uh the headline, "US April
[27:03] producer prices rose 6% year-over-year.
[27:06] The estimate was 4.8%, so obviously the
[27:09] closure of the Strait of Hormuz is
[27:11] having an effect." We were talking about
[27:12] Diet Cokes. You would think that the uh
[27:15] the caffeine doesn't come from the
[27:16] Middle East, the the delicious caramel
[27:18] flavor, whatever else they put in this
[27:20] uh
[27:21] it does not come from the Middle East,
[27:22] but aluminum actually, there are
[27:24] smelters in the Middle East. Aluminum is
[27:26] in shorter supply because of the closure
[27:29] of the Strait of Hormuz, and so Diet
[27:30] Coke is rapidly going out of stock, and
[27:33] so you need to load up if you're
[27:36] prepared.
[27:36] >> you got four or five pallets?
[27:39] >> I have not actually gotten any. I'm not
[27:41] stockpiling Diet Coke yet, but who
[27:43] knows, maybe prices go up. That's what
[27:45] inflation represents, and Wall Street is
[27:48] getting more anxious about it, so we can
[27:50] read through this. Surging energy prices
[27:52] have pushed investors' inflation
[27:54] expectations to multi-year highs.
[27:56] Tuesday's hot readout on consumer prices
[27:59] is intensifying Wall Street's anxiety
[28:01] about inflation. Uh even before the
[28:03] latest release of the consumer price
[28:05] index, inflation expectations had been
[28:07] climbing, a potential trouble spot in
[28:09] the market where stocks have largely
[28:12] shrugged off the US-Iran conflict and
[28:14] the resulting energy shock. And so
[28:16] investors bet on inflation by buying and
[28:18] selling both ordinary US Treasuries and
[28:20] those that hedge the risk of inflation
[28:22] called TIPS, uh Treasury
[28:25] Inflation-Protected Securities. The gaps
[28:28] between the yields of those two types of
[28:30] bonds, known as the break-even rate,
[28:32] recently hit the highest level since
[28:34] October of 2022,
[28:36] according to Federal Reserve data,
[28:37] suggesting that investors expect annual
[28:40] inflation to average around 2.7% over
[28:43] the next 5 years. Now, that's It's
[28:45] entirely doom and gloom, but the risk
[28:47] here is that the AI boom, the the GDP
[28:51] numbers are sort of concentrated in AI
[28:54] CAPEX and data centers. It's not evenly
[28:56] distributed. The real economy is only
[28:58] growing at 0.1% while the real economy
[29:01] is suffering from 2.7% inflation over
[29:04] the next 5 years. That's a recipe for
[29:07] stagflation, stagnation plus inflation,
[29:10] uh a very rough thing for any economy to
[29:13] go through and something that uh the
[29:16] market and the economy and the
[29:18] politicians should be focused on.
[29:20] >> In some ways, you know, who who knows
[29:22] how how history will view Powell, but
[29:24] like he landed he landed the plane.
[29:27] >> Good.
[29:27] >> And then, you know, we get war in the
[29:30] Middle East and uh and now Kevin Warsh
[29:33] in some ways looks like he'll have just
[29:35] as tough of a job.
[29:36] >> Potentially. Potentially.
[29:37] >> Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts
[29:39] and Spotify. Sign up for the newsletter
[29:40] at tbvn.com and we will see you tomorrow
[29:42] at 11:00 at 11:00 a.m. Pacific sharp.
[29:44] >> We love you.
[29:45] >> Goodbye.
[29:45] >> Goodbye.
