主讲人总结道：“If you're in a real crash, everything's getting obliterated. Everything. It's not like, oh, there's all these groups of stocks that are doing well. No, no, no. Almost everything's going to get absolutely obliterated in a real crash.”
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Real Market Crash vs Current Sector Rotation
accDescr: Comparison between historical market crashes where almost all stocks fell and the current market where non-tech stocks are rallying.
从盘面表现来看，大量非科技板块个股走势极为强劲：Pool Corporation出现大幅拉升，Lowe's涨幅超过4%，Alexandria Real Estate也同样暴涨。如此多的传统行业股票表现靓丽，根本无法得出当前市场正在经历全面崩盘的结论。针对投资者经常拿来当风向标的卡特彼勒（Caterpillar），过去大家总认为它一旦下跌就意味着大盘完蛋、经济步入衰退，反之若上涨则代表经济繁荣。年内卡特彼勒股价曾在1000美元左右见顶，如今已回落至613美元，仅过去一个月内就重挫了27%。许多人据此质疑，这是否证明我们正处于崩盘的第二或第三局。
由于它已彻底转变成一只纯正的AI概念股，它现在的走势完全与英伟达、AMD、博通（Avago）和美光绑定在一起，半导体涨它就涨，半导体跌它就崩。对此博主直言：“Caterpillar is not the old caterpillar that you could usually count on to look at and say, hey, if caterpillar is going down or in the midst of a crash, it's an AI play now.” 在长达18年的市场交易生涯中，这种现象是前所未有的动态。当前的行情根本不是全盘崩盘，甚至谈不上深度的全面回调，而是一场极其纯粹的板块资金轮动（rotation）——资金正在从前期涨幅过大的AI相关个股中抽离，转而涌入其他板块。在真正的崩盘大跌中，所有股票都会被无差别屠杀，而当下的市场环境显然并非如此。
- **非AI标的异动**：Pool Corporation大涨，Lowe's上涨超4%，商业地产信托Alexandria Real Estate强势反弹。
- **卡特彼勒核心数据**：股价从约1000美元跌至613美元，近一个月跌幅27%；动力能源部门取代传统机械成为最大业务。
- **订单与产能指引**：在手积压订单达到创纪录的780亿美元，大型发动机与涡轮机订单排至2029–2030年，2030年前产能翻三倍。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Caterpillar's Shift to AI Power Infrastructure
accDescr: Diagram illustrating how AI power demand shifts Caterpillar from traditional construction equipment to an AI power play.
subgraph AI_Demand["AI数据中心电力瓶颈"]
A["AI计算负荷激增"] --> B["公共电网扩容受限"]
B --> C["数据中心自建离网微电网"]
end
subgraph CAT_Transformation["卡特彼勒业务重塑"]
C --> D["动力与能源部门"]
D --> E["工业发电机组与涡轮机需求爆发"]
E --> F["780亿美元积压订单<br/>排产至2029-2030年"]
end
subgraph Market_Linkage["市场交易属性转变"]
F --> G["脱离传统机械周期晴雨表"]
G --> H["与英伟达/AMD/美光等AI股同频联动"]
end
```
短期涨跌的决定权完全掌握在华尔街和量化算法手中。对于普通投资者来说，无法预判明天盘后算法到底会盯住营收、利润率、每股收益还是电话会议里的某句表态借题发挥。面对百亿、数千亿乃至万亿美元市值的庞然大物，零售投资者就像是看着巨型邮轮驶过的乘客，可以选择上船或下船，但绝不可能去掌舵驱动它。关于投资者的定位与应对策略，博主强调：“At the end of the day, I can't control if AMD goes up or down 20% tomorrow. I have no control over that.”
收入端方面，Palantir本季度营收同比爆发式增长96%。尽管营业成本（Cost of revenue）出现了85%的大幅攀升（推测包含部分股权激励支出/SBC），但成本增速依然被压制在总营收增速之下，展现了出色的单位经济效益。得益于此，毛利润同比增长98%，由去年同期的9.73亿美元飙升至19亿美元。在费用控制方面，销售与营销费用增长44%，研发费用增长52%，一般与行政费用增长42%，总运营费用上涨46%。在常规企业中，46%的费用扩张通常会引发市场担忧，但面对高达96%的营收跃升与98%的毛利激增，这种程度的运营投入反而凸显了极高的经营杠杆效率。
利润表与现金流表现同样惊人：
- **营业利润（Income from operations）**：同比暴涨176%。
- **利息收入**：增长49%；尽管本季度录得约2500万至2600万美元的其他支出（相比去年同期的2700万美元收益），税前利润仍逆势增长139%。
- **净利润与EPS**：净利润同比增长138%，稀释后每股收益（Diluted EPS）大幅增长144%。博主由衷赞叹：“Guys, these numbers are legendary out of Palantir. Simply legendary.”
更关键的是，管理层对下季度的指引落在了 80% 高位区间。这意味着从 2023 年以来的长周期内，Palantir 将首次正式经历营收增速放缓。主讲人指出：“When that growth rate starts to decelerate, people get scared.” 这类高增长型股票一旦失去“持续加速”的推力，资本市场往往会迅速采取回避态度。
与此同时，估值问题在高增速神话破灭时将被无限放大。根据 thousandxtalks.com 的数据，Palantir 当下的远期市盈率（Forward P/E）接近 100 倍，两年期远期市盈率仍达 70 倍左右。只要公司保持恐怖的加速增长，市场愿意为其支付任何估值；但一旦增速回落，极高的估值就会变成重压。随着基数大幅推高，Palantir 明年将面临极具挑战性的同比基数（Lapping effects）。若下季度增速降至 89%，随后的季度可能一路滑落至 65%、48%，甚至一年到一年半后降至 32%。虽然 30% 多的增速放在普通企业身上依然出色，但对于原本习惯了 90% 增长、且享有 70 到 100 倍市盈率的股票而言，这必然引发剧烈的估值重杀。主讲人强调：“Like people will pay just about any P ratio as long as you've got the insane growth and you keep accelerating. Once you see that D cell, the valuation starts to become a factor, right?”
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Palantir Growth and Valuation Compression
accDescr: Palantir面临的增速见顶、成本膨胀与高估值重杀传导链条
subgraph GrowthCycle["增速拐点与高基数"]
A["营收增速见顶 (96%)"] --> B["指引下行至 80% 高区间"]
B --> C["高基数效应拉低后续增速<br/>(未来预计跌向 65% / 48% / 32%)"]
end
subgraph MarginSqueeze["成本端承压"]
D["营业成本激增<br/>(24% -> 25% -> 54% -> 85%)"]
end
subgraph MultipleCompression["估值杀跌"]
E["远期 P/E 处于 70-100 倍高位"]
C --> F["高估值无法被放缓的增速支撑"]
D --> F
F --> G["股价承压进入技术性回调"]
end
```
主讲人指出，对待成长股需要明确周期：“The next 12 months, If Palantir's, because obviously what you're willing to pay for the stock in five years from now is a different price than what you're willing to pay five months from now.” 投资者需严格区分中短期交易估值与五年维度的终局定价。
主讲人在社交平台 X 上对此公开表态：“Celsius, the wealthiest stock in the 20s, as many have given up on it. Meanwhile, I think growth rates could be much stronger 2027 through 2029 than any of us are anticipating.” 这种极端的市场悲观情绪，恰恰构成了下一个长期非对称机会的温床。
[30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1nU4g6eEYN?t=1800s) Celsius vs. Palantir: The Growth Rate Volatility of Early-Stage Winners
Jeremy addresses the extreme market skepticism surrounding Celsius, comparing the pessimistic sentiment to the period when investors wrote off Palantir during its post-IPO trough. He cautions that Wall Street is fixated on Celsius’s recent deceleration—culminating in just 10% revenue growth in the most recent quarter—and assumes that sluggish single-digit or low double-digit expansion is the permanent reality. Looking back at Celsius’s historical quarterly revenue growth reveals extreme volatility rather than steady decay: after booming at 104% and 95%, it slowed to 36% and 23% in 2023, plunged into negative territory in 2024 at -31%, -4%, and -7%, before exploding again to 83%, 172%, 117%, and 137%, only to drop back down to 10%. With an early-stage consumer brand, projecting a single quarter’s number into perpetuity misses the underlying growth cycle.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Palantir Growth Cycle vs Celsius Parallels
accDescr: Diagram contrasting Palantir's historical slowdown and re-acceleration with Celsius's erratic growth trajectory.
subgraph Palantir["Palantir Historical Precedent"]
direction TB
P1["2021 Peak: 48% - 49% Growth"] --> P2["2022-2023 Trough: 12% Growth<br/>(Stock dropped from $40s to $5.98)"]
P2 --> P3["2024 Re-Acceleration: 96% Growth<br/>(High-margin operating leverage)"]
end
subgraph Celsius["Celsius Growth Volatility"]
direction TB
C1["Early Surge: 104% -> 95%"] --> C2["2024 Slump: -31% -> -4%"]
C2 --> C3["Alani Nu Spike: 83% -> 172% -> 137%"]
C3 --> C4["Recent Trough: 10% Growth<br/>(Market assumes company is done)"]
end
Jeremy draws a direct parallel to Palantir’s performance between 2021 and 2023. When Palantir debuted, it reported quarterly top-line expansion of 48% and 49%, before gradually slipping down the ladder: 35%, 34%, 30%, 25%, 21%, 17%, and eventually bottoming out at 12% growth in 2023. That dramatic deceleration triggered a brutal sell-off from the $30s and $40s down to a low of $5.98 per share, as consensus declared the stock dead and modeled 10% to 15% growth indefinitely. Yet Palantir rebuilt momentum and just peaked at 96% revenue growth. Emphasizing that Celsius is in a similarly premature phase of its corporate life cycle, Jeremy stresses why drawing static conclusions from current numbers is a mistake:
> “You can't look at those growth rates and just assume any of them are going to be the long-term growth rate.”
- **Celsius Quarterly Swings**: Shifted from triple-digit expansion (104%) down through 95%, 36%, 23%, deep into contractions of -31%, -4%, and -7%, before rebounding to 83%, 172%, 117%, and 137%, and settling at 10% in the latest quarter.
- **Palantir Historical Comparison**: Descended systematically from 49% down through intermediate steps to 12% in 2023, cratering to $5.98 before rebounding to 96% top-line growth.
- **Brand Maturity**: Established beverage titans like Coca-Cola and Pepsi have operated for generations; seven years ago, Celsius was virtually unknown.
- **Combined Market Share**: Across Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar, the company currently controls roughly 20% of the energy drink category.
---
[33:30](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1nU4g6eEYN?t=2010s) The Energy Drink Playbook: Monster's History and the Multi-Brand Strategy
Reflecting on his past investment in Monster Beverage when it was still named Hansen’s Natural Beverage, Jeremy notes that the beverage giants of today were once early-stage businesses with erratic, unpredictable quarterly numbers. Back then, analysts repeatedly claimed Monster’s hyper-growth was over, predicting 5% to 10% annual gains, only to be surprised by random quarters of 20%+ surges. Established players like Monster have been operating for nearly 25 years (and far longer if counting the original Hansen's business), whereas Celsius is still at an early inflection point.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Beverage Conglomerate Growth Engine
accDescr: Multi-phase growth engine illustrating product line extensions, M&A brand acquisitions, and margin expansion.
subgraph Economics["2. Margin Transformation"]
E3 --> M1["Gross Margin Expansion"]
M1 --> M2["Operating & Net Margin Flow-Through"]
end
subgraph Outcome["3. Valuation Target"]
M2 --> R1["Path to $100+ & New ATHs"]
end
```
The long-term bull thesis for Celsius follows a distinct three-phase progression: an unexpected re-acceleration in revenue growth around 2027 and beyond, followed by gross margin expansion, and completed by operating and net margin flow-through. Jeremy emphasizes that beverage leaders do not rely solely on a single flagship drink; they scale by rolling out specialized line extensions (sugar-free offerings, fruit flavors, coffee blends) and executing strategic acquisitions. Monster deployed this exact playbook by launching Reign Energy, taking over brands from Coca-Cola, and acquiring Bang Energy. Celsius is replicating the model through its core SKUs, the rapid expansion of Alani Nu (which has substantial runway, particularly overseas), and the acquisition of the Rockstar brand. He warns against reacting emotionally to short-term data sets like weekly Nielsen channel reads:
> “And just keep in mind with these drink companies, listen. You can launch drinks or you can buy drinks.”
Jeremy notes he is still in active accumulation mode on the position, holding a $250,000 stake in his public portfolio with an unrealized gain of $27,000. He sees a realistic multi-year trajectory for the stock to rally from its current $20s level back to its previous peak of $96, surpass $100, and push toward new all-time highs.
- **Portfolio Position**: Holding a quarter-million-dollar ($250,000) position in the public account, currently up $27,000.
- **Price Trajectory**: Prior peak sat around $96 per share; long-term target is $100+ and eventual record highs driven by volume, gross margins, and net margins.
- **Strategic M&A & Line Launches**: Monster added Reign Energy, absorbed Bang Energy, and took on Coca-Cola beverage lines; Celsius leverages core flavor extensions, Alani Nu’s lifestyle momentum, and Rockstar’s distribution base.
---
[36:20](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1nU4g6eEYN?t=2180s) Estée Lauder Earnings Blowout: Margin Expansion, China Rebound, and Multi-Bag Potential
Turning to new buying opportunities, Jeremy highlights Estée Lauder as a standout value play that delivered an exceptional earnings report earlier in the morning, which he assigns an outright "A grade." Net sales increased 7% while cost of goods sold dropped 3%, fueling a 10% jump in gross profit and expanding gross margin from 73.4% to 75.7%. Operating discipline remained tight: SG&A grew only 3%, keeping overall operating expense growth at just 1%. As a result, operating income more than doubled, soaring 141% from $169 million in the prior-year quarter to $408 million, lifting operating margin from 4.9% to 11.0%.
Earnings before taxes reached $345 million compared to $109 million, while GAAP net income exploded nearly fivefold, rising from $47 million to $233 million, bringing diluted EPS to $0.64 compared to $0.13 a year earlier. The balance sheet saw meaningful strengthening as cash and cash equivalents grew from $2.2 billion to nearly $3.2 billion, long-term debt was paid down from $7.3 billion to $6.7 billion, and total stockholders' equity climbed past $4 billion.
Geographically, growth was broad-based: the Americas advanced 5%, Europe rose 2%, and Asia gained 9%, anchored by a 15% acceleration in Mainland China. Product-wise, skincare increased 5%, makeup grew 2%, and fragrance posted a standout 19% gain, offsetting a 1% decline in haircare. Jeremy points out that Estée Lauder has fallen from its historical highs of roughly $370 to trade around $104 per share. While he stops short of predicting an immediate return to $370, he sees a compelling setup for the stock to double or triple into the $200 to $300 range:
> “We have a chance to, I don't know about go to 370, but we have a chance to go somewhere between there. I'm not even talking about new all-time highs. I'm just talking like we have a chance to double up this stock, maybe even triple it up.”
Jeremy notes he is already up $63,000 on Estée Lauder in his public account with substantial upside remaining. He concludes the broadcast by inviting viewers to join his private community, outlining perks including custom steel membership cards, the complete educational course library, access to JeremyGPT, private Discord discussions, and exclusive portfolio videos.
- **Segment Breakdown**: Fragrance led performance (+19%), followed by Other (+12%), Mainland China (+15%), Asia regional (+9%), Americas (+5%), Skincare (+5%), Makeup (+2%), and Europe (+2%), with Haircare slightly down (-1%).
- **Public Portfolio Gain**: Currently up $63,000 on the Estée Lauder holding.
- **Valuation Upside**: Down from a former all-time high of $370 to around $104, offering a multi-year 2x to 3x recovery window.
## Notable quotes
> [05:05](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1nU4g6eEYN?t=305s) If you're in a real crash, everything's getting obliterated. Everything. It's not like, oh, there's all these groups of stocks that are doing well. No, no, no. Almost everything's going to get absolutely obliterated in a real crash. — Jeremy
> [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1nU4g6eEYN?t=600s) Caterpillar is not the old caterpillar that you could usually count on to look at and say, hey, if caterpillar is going down or in the midst of a crash, it's an AI play now. — Jeremy
[5:05] Jeremy: If you're in a real crash, everything's getting obliterated. Everything. It's not like, oh, there's all these groups of stocks that are doing well. No, no, no. Almost everything's going to get absolutely obliterated in a real crash.
[10:00] Jeremy: Caterpillar is not the old caterpillar that you could usually count on to look at and say, hey, if caterpillar is going down or in the midst of a crash, it's an AI play now.
Original transcript
[0:00] You've got to be burning the flapjacks. Look at this. They won't stop crashing. Marvell technology is down almost 13% here today. Super micro down over 7%. AMD down another 7.5% here today. SanDisk down 6.5% again. Microns down 833 bucks. That one topped well in the $1,200 range. Intel has completely crashed. That one down another 8.8% here today. Oh my gosh. Oracle continues to get devastated. That one down almost 9%. CoreWeave continues to get destroyed. Another 8.6% here today on that one. A lot of big tech stocks just continue to get hammered. 5 percent palo alto networks down four percent palantir's got hit three percent mr softy got hit three percent ibm big blue down two percent apple down and down after hours as well we are now officially ladies and gentlemen hey hey hey hey welcome we're now officially in a small correction the the queues are now down over 10 from their highs which means we're now officially My stock is down 29% from where it was three, four, five weeks ago, right? Yeah. Unfortunately, that's the way it goes. A 10% move down in the Qs. can mean a lot of stocks will be down 20-30%, if not more than that. When we start talking about the Q's down 30%, You're going to see tech stocks down 50% plus all over the place. So that's just something to kind of keep in mind there. Welcome to the rodeo, right? Now look at this. AMD, NVIDIA, all these different price targets got cut here today on Wall Street. NVIDIA price target got cut to 330 from 420. Marvell got cut to 300 from 445. That's a huge cut there. AMD got cut to 600 from 660. That one's not as big of a cut as some of these others, but still a pretty good size cut. ballpark Dell got cut to 590 from 735 and then Broadcom got cut to 450 from 610 so those are significant price target cuts also shows you who Wall Street's most bullish on right dude okay ladies and gentlemen four core subjects to speak about in this video here today serious subjects okay one all "Are we in a market crash? "Or is there a huge turn coming?" Meaning essentially, you know, Q's down 10%, Are we in a market crash? Is this just like inning one or inning two of an actual market crash right now? And I'm going to show you the signals on how to actually understand if you're in a market crash or not. Or is this just down now and then we're going to turn later this week or next week and then head to the upside. So we'll speak about that first off. Number two, Palantir. We're going to talk about Palantir. Is that stock a buy or a sell right now? Next up, we'll talk about my third subject here today is what is my next Palantir? that stock for you in today's video. And then the last subject we'll speak about here today is a hidden gem stock that You're almost never going to hear talked about anywhere else other than my channel. And this stock's a great buy. I mean a great buy. It's been a great buy. It remains a great buy. And like I said, this one is a very, very hidden stock. So, all right, guys. I hope you appreciate today's video. I hope you enjoyed it. The only thing I need from you if you haven't already done so, just smash that like button for me here today. I'm trying to keep you guys up to date with everything going on out there. And there's a lot. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel. Make sure you got notifications on. We're in crazy times, man. single day. Hey, to everybody that's members of my private group, listen up. We launched last week Jeremy GPT, which is pretty darn exciting. And this is essentially, we've been building this for the past year and just feeding it massive amounts of videos over the years, my course curriculums. And what you can do essentially is be able to ask this, a question or wanted to explain a subject to you. And it will do it like basically the way I would personally do it. So it's basically like we created a digital version of me now at this point in time. And I've been testing this model. And we've also had the private group members, you know, testing this and it's unbelievable. And so people like, like somebody asked about one of our members asked about NBIS stock here today, this is a stock I never talk about. But you know, Jeremy GPT went ahead and broke it all down and gave its opinion, right? And it's not just an opinion in general, how I think. And exactly my frameworks and all these sorts of things, it's the same, right? Somebody asked about this other stock I never talk about, IREN, right? Somebody asked for my thoughts on Marvell acquisition of this other company, right? And, you know, it's just unbelievable. And it'll give me a full breakdown. And it'll do it in a way like exactly how I would think because it's just been fed just ridiculous amounts of my data and exactly how I think about these processes. management's guide give a base case bowl case uh 2028 price targets, all this sort of stuff, right? And it gives like a full breakdown. It's insane, right?
[5:00] Valuation on Norwegian cruise lines, right? Like, goes all in depth, right? And it's exactly like how I think. Like, I'm looking at it, I'm like, dang, that's exactly what I would say. Like, it's talking about Norwegian cruise lines looks inexpensive on earnings, but not clearly undervalued when it's debt is included. That's exactly what I would look for in a cruise line. Like, I'm looking at the debt loads, right? My assessment, a potential turnaround value, not an obvious bargain, right? And it talks about earnings per share, talks about the EBITDA, right? And talks about, ultimately, the debt as well, right? insane you know what we can do now at this point in time right it also can look for my past valuations and projections for stocks and things like that somebody want to know what my my um so if i stock projections are unbelievable man so uh private group members definitely enjoy that if you want to access my private group i'll put it as a pinned comment down there you click on that and you can apply to join us in there okay already are we in a market crash or are we in a big term okay Listen, listen, listen. If you look at the three crashes we had somewhat recently, and so in order for it to be a crash, I categorize it as a crash in the market. I'm looking for 30% or more down below. for the NASDAQ essentially. Okay. And so if I think about three crashes where we had that occur, Since I've been in the market, at least, there was a time period when I got in at the end of 08 into 09, right? That was a 50% plus down crash for the NASDAQ. We had... 2020, right? That was a 30% plus move down for the NASDAQ there. We had 2022, that was like a 35% peak to trough, peak in 21, bottom in 22. It was like 35% for the NASDAQ or a little over 35%, right? So those are three major crashes. So you understand when you're going through those sorts of crashes, right, the S&P 500 is also going to get hit hard as well. Right. Usually not as hard as the Nasdaq, but it's going to get hit. So I asked AI, I said, you know, what percentage of S&P 500 stocks went down in those different crashes? So during the Rona crash, 96 percent. of S&P 500 stocks went down. During the 2008 crash, 97% of S&P 500 stocks went down. And during the 2022 crash, almost 80%. of S&P 500 stocks went down. The moral of the story is here, If you're in a real crash, everything's getting obliterated. Everything. It's not like, oh, there's all these groups of stocks that are doing well. No, no, no. Almost everything's going to get absolutely obliterated in a real crash. So I posted this on my X page here today. Not sure if you guys follow me on X or not, but if you want to follow me on there, I always have a link in the description area down there. 30-day performance of these stocks. This was earlier today. So this is, by the way, it's a lot worse for a lot of these tech stocks lower after I posted this actually. So just keep that in mind. But this was a 30 day performance. as of earlier this morning in regards to these stocks. Intel's down 51% the past 30 days. CMDisk 37% down. AMD 25% down. CoreWeave 44%. Snowflake 13%. Micron 22%. And there's Shopify up 6%. So you might say, okay, Shopify is just a one-off. That's just one free company doing well. We'll see about that, right? Oracle down 16%. SpaceX down 7%. NVIDIA down 14%. Service now down 21%. The Qs were down 9% at that time, now 10%. Amazon, negative 1%, so almost flattish. Google and Google's been hit hard, 17%. Mr. Softee's break-even, right? Tesla's up 10%. Okay, that's interesting. Okay, we got another green there. Meta's down 17%. Apple's up 2%. Okay. IBM's up 14%. Okay. The Flix is down 8%. Then we have Celsius up 12%. RH up 22%, a do-si-do. American Express up 9%. SoFi's up 7%. Nike's up 19%. Cheesecake Factory's up 6%. Elf on a Shelf's up 6%. Revolve's up 8%. louder, say louder for the people in backs, up 17%. Hmm, that's interesting, right? I just pulled a bunch of random stocks there. So there's definitely plenty of stocks out there, right, that are actually doing well the past month, while all these other stocks are getting obliterated, you got Intel down 50 plus percent, right, AMD's down probably 25, 30 percent, whatever, right? You've got plenty of stocks that are green, plenty of stocks that are doing very well out there, right? So... That whole like, well, everything, you're not getting that, right? I was looking at housing stocks here today. Can you say we're in a crash when you've got housing stocks booming? Look at the moves here today. Enphase was up almost 9%. Rocket was rocketed higher, 7.5%. Zillow... was up over 4%. KB Home was about 5.6% here today. Pulte Home up 5.2%. Toll Brothers up 5%. Lennar up 4.7%. DR Horton up huge.
[10:00] Pool Corporation up huge. Lowe's was up 4% plus. Alexandria Real Estate was up huge here today. So you're just having way too many stocks. looking really good now to really say we're in a crash, right? But then you look at something like Caterpillar. Caterpillar is usually one of those stocks that you say, Hey, cat's going down. The cat's out of the bag. We're in a crash. Right. And cat's going up. Then you're like, we're in a booming economy. Things are great. Right. Cat top down this year, right around a thousand dollars a share. Okay. It's 613 here today. The stock's down just in the past month 27%. So you may look at something like Ken, you may say, well, Isn't that sign, isn't that a signal that we're in the midst of a crash, right? Maybe we're at inning two or three with cats. Typically, that's the situation, but here's the deal, right? And I asked AI, I said, you know, I don't pay attention to cats super heavily. I'll grade their income statement, but it's not like I go super in depth with Caterpillar. It's not usually a stock I'm very interested in. It's very cyclical. But I said, isn't Cat like a huge beneficiary of AI? And they said, yes, Caterpillar has emerged as one of the biggest and most surprising second-order beneficiaries of artificial intelligence boom. While NVIDIA builds the digital brains for AI, Caterpillar provides the physical infrastructure, specifically the massive electricity generation, earth-moving and mining equipment required to build and run hyperscale data centers. The primary driver behind this transformation is its tech sector staggering demand for power. Electrical grids cannot expand fast enough to support AI workloads. Data center operators are bypassing utilities and building their own off-the-grid, on-site microgrids. Yep. Caterpillar's power and energy segment has eclipsed its traditional yellow construction equipment to become its largest and fastest growing business unit. and industrial diesel generation sets for primary and backup power. They have massive order backlogs, right? In late 2026, Caterpillar reported an unprecedented $78 billion order backlog with large engine and turbine orders stretching out as far as 2029 and 2030. unprecedented capacity expansion they're talking about here it's going to triple its large engine production capacity by 2030. upstream mining and construction. So Caterpillar Here's the deal. Caterpillar is not the old caterpillar that you could usually count on to look at and say, hey, if caterpillar is going down or in the midst of a crash, it's an AI play now. And so it really gets tied up with all these other stocks that are seen as AI stocks. So caterpillar is going to move with NVIDIA. Caterpillar is going to move with AMD. It's weird. It's very weird. This doesn't usually happen, but it's the situation we have right now. NVIDIA and AMD go booming. Cat's going booming. Like, it's as simple as that. Avago goes booming, Micron goes booming, Cat's going booming. Those stocks are crashing... Cats crashing. In some... The cat's out of the bag, that's a whole different situation than we've ever been used to. At least in my 18 years of being in the market, it's a very weird dynamic, right? So the moral of the story is here. We're not in a crash. We're not in a crash scenario. We're not even in a major correction scenario. This is simply a rotation, ladies and gentlemen. You have money rotating out of the AI-related stocks, right? And it's moving into other places. It's as simple as that because there's a ton of stocks that are doing tremendous right now. It's not AMD. It's not Micron. It's not Intel. It's not Meta. It's not Amazon. It's not those sorts of stocks or Google McDougal. But there's a ton of stocks out there that are actually performing in a great way right now. So we have clear rotation going on, right? That could change. But when you're going through a major crash or correction, just understand everything is going to get hammered. And we're not in that environment at all, right? That brings me to AMD. Listen. Thank you. So they're going to come back to the stock. I understand they've sold it off heavy. Oh my gosh. AMD's been crashing. They're coming right back. They're too addicted to the stock. It's the one you got to be in next year. You know, bottom line with that, they're coming back to the stock. I have no worries. I don't even like... Like I look at the moves, but I don't even like process it because it's so irrelevant because I'm so – convinced Wall Street's coming right back to this one as they do every single time and they're going to keep doing it, right? No, I believe there's going to be a semiconductor comeback that is going to happen here, and it's going to be pretty insane. I could see it starting as early as tomorrow, literally tomorrow, tomorrow. I could see this AMD comeback starting tomorrow.
[15:00] A row. And that semiconductor comeback starts in November and it rolls through into April, in my personal opinion. Right. That's what I see happening there. But with that being said, who knows, maybe they sell off AMD bigger tomorrow. It drops 10, 15, 20 percent after hours. Right. And it goes down and gets the Intel treatment. I don't know. All I know is I'm going to I believe what I believe, which is AMD starts to come back strong. The whole semiconductor space has a six month boom cycle. Right. But I'm going to focus long term. I'm not going to make short term decisions. As long as AMD's numbers, guidance, commentary, conference call, as long as that's all going the direction I want it to go, I'll continue to be a big AMD investor for a long time ago in the future. And if the valuation ever gets out of whack and it goes too high, I'll sell off portions of my shares. If we're in a situation where the fundamentals deteriorate in a major way, I'll change my opinion on AMD. But the moral of the story is I have that stock going to $1,000 plus in the next few years. And so... I'm, you know, it's 400 something. I got to continue to hold. It's as simple as that. Right. And so, um, My belief is my belief there, but I'll stay focused on the long term. And that's what you always got to do in these. Because at the end of the day, I can't control if AMD goes up or down 20% tomorrow. I have no control over that. Like AMD, they could look at the results as great tomorrow. They could look at the results as bad. It depends on what they want to focus on tomorrow. And when I, who's they? That's Wall Street. That's algorithms. The algos in Wall Street are going to be what decides if AMD stock goes up or down tomorrow after the bell. It could go up 10%, 20%. It could go down 10%, 20%. It's going to depend on many various factors on whatever they really want to look at. If they want to focus on revenue, they'll focus on revenue, and that will be the reason. If they want to focus on margins, that will be the reason, or EPS or just a conference call. Okay. I have no control over that. You have no control over that. We can just simply see the cruise ships and be like, we want to get on that cruise ship or not. Right. And it's as simple as that. But we're not we're not we're not driving a cruise ship. OK, that's Wall Street all controlling that. I mean, these these market caps are hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars that many of these companies we invest in. And heck, even the smaller ones are usually tens of billions. We have no control over those stocks, right? But We can stay focused on long term, right? So keep in mind there. Next up here, let's talk about Palantir's, a buy or a sell on the stock. Then we'll talk about what's my next Palantir and then we'll talk about a great hidden stock to buy. Okay. Palantir. Oh my god. Gosh. Look at that. That's an A++ grade. That's perfection, ladies and gentlemen. That is as good as it gets. Revenue growth up 96% year over year. Cost of revenue was up dramatically, 85%. I do believe in that line item. They have some SBC in there, stock-based compensation. So just something to keep in mind. But that was kind of an ugly number there, 85%. But it's still lower than revenue, so that's good. So gross profit was up 98%. to 1.9 billion from 973 million in the same quarter last year. I mean, the, The way Palantir has been able to expand its business model and the job Alex Karp's done with this team, legendary. Legendary. Sales and marketing up 44% there. R&D up 52%. G&A up 42%. Total operating expenses up 46%. These would be problems because those are insanely huge numbers, right? Those would be problems if it wasn't for the fact that Palantir was growing their revenue 96 flipping flapjack in percent. That's insane. Gross profit up 98%. Like that's wild. Income from operations up 176%. Interest income up 49%. They did have this other expense of 25 mil, almost 26 mil in the quarter versus $27 million benefit. in the same quarter last year. So something to keep in mind there. Still, even with that, income before... Income taxes up 139%, net income up 138%, EPS on a diluted basis up 144%. Guys, these numbers are legendary out of Palantir. Simply legendary. Look at the balance sheet. Look at this. Cash and cash equivalents now $3.6 billion from $1.4 billion at the beginning of 2020. At the end of 2025, excuse me. At the end of 2025, $1.4 billion in cash. Now they have $3.6. Marketable securities is up to almost $7 billion from $5.7 billion at the end of last year. And then total equities up to $11.3 billion now versus $7.5 billion at the end of last year. is just on incredible right penalty here this is a stock i was buying for is seven something dollars a share back in 2022 right this
[20:00] Stock has done Everything. I could have imagined and more. Like what I thought Palantir could become in the future years, it became way better than that. Way more than that. I never... I never projected Palantir's revenue to grow over 90%. And they just knocked out two straight quarters of 90% revenue growth. legendary man like when you can be very very bullish on palantir and like i was and still you weren't bullish enough that's incredible Just an incredible company. Now, with that being said, OK, let's talk about the elephant in the room. The stock price is going down. Mm-hmm. The stock price is going down Chinatown. So you look at that and you say, okay, How? A++ grade income statement. They beat just about everything you could possibly beat. Bell and Chief's better than it's ever been. It's proven to be a huge moneymaker, right? And if you want to put them kind of in the SaaS space, they're really seen as like the only ones you really want to be in in this space. At least, you know, some people view it like that, right? So why is the stock going down? I'll tell you why it's going down. It's going down for three different reasons. Listen. this is problem number one this is the main problem with palantir stock okay Not with the business, with the stock. Listen, Palantir is a hyper growth company. With these sorts of companies, people love them until your growth starts to decelerate. Once that growth rate starts to decelerate, people get scared. Keep in mind for the beginners in the market, you guys that are in first year or two, right? Deceleration in growth is different than a decline in revenue. Okay. Deceleration can be my company's grow in revenue 25% and then they went down to 15% growth the next year. That's a deceleration. Revenue is still going up, it's just not going up as fast. A decline in revenue would be like my company was growing revenue 25% last year and this year the revenue is negative 10%. That would be a decline, right? Keep that in mind, deceleration and decline are different. So what Palantir is about to occur, and this is going to last for like the next two to three years likely, is a decelerating revenue growth rate. So the revenue is still going to pile up. It's still going to go up over the next two to three years. but it's going to go up at much less fast of a rate. on a percentage basis. Okay? So... If you look here, this is over the last several quarters, it's 63% revenue growth. Then they jumped up to 70%. That was seven full percentage points of an increase there. Then they jumped to 85%, 15 percentage points. higher, right? Then they jump to 93%, 8% points higher, but that's already, we're starting to get a, you know, D cell kind of there, right? Still an acceleration on the overall growth rate, but you can see. Okay, you're getting those early mathematical signs of a D cell coming, right? And they took it to 96% in this most recent quarter. So still an acceleration, but a slower acceleration. That's three percentage points. The guidance is in the high 80s. Okay. For the next quarter. So... Next quarter... it's finally going to happen for the first time in a lot of years. Like you have to go all the way back to 2023. For the first time since 2023, Palantir is going to experience decelerating waves. revenue growth. Okay, and so Thank you. That's a problem. That's a big problem. When you're a hyper growth company and you're going to go through that phase, usually a lot of investors don't want you. Okay. So that's the main problem. Then we have two minor problems with Palantir. Okay. These are both important. They're not as important as that first one. When you're talking about hyper growth companies, this is everything that accelerating growth rates, right? This is a minor problem, but it still matters a lot in the next one's a minor problem. So look at this. I always post, I grade mass amounts of income statements every single earnings season. I post them in the private group. And so in the private group Discord chat, you can just type in Palantir and I'll pull up my Palantir grades for Palantir income statements I graded in the past. And look at this. Look at this. Okay. So this was nine months ago for the quarter they reported. A++ great. Palantir's got a lot of A++'s, right? Cost of revenue in that quarter was up 24%. Okay. Keep that number in mind, 24%. Now, go to the quarter I graded six months ago. Now it went to 25%. Not too crazy, but it did go up a little bit. But you say that's fine because revenue went from 70% to 85%. So nothing, no problem yet at this point in time, right? Now. Look what happens three months ago. I grade this one, and uh-oh, cost of revenue balloons to 54%. Okay.
[25:00] Bye. Now you say it's still not a problem because 93% growth versus 54% cost of revenue growth, not a problem. But look at the income statement I graded 12 minutes ago. Okay. 96% revenue growth, 85% cost of revenue has gone up. So cost of revenue, ladies and gentlemen, listen. It's out of control. Now, doesn't mean it will stay out of control. They might get that under control next year, but for right now, It's just exploding higher from just a few quarters ago, 25% to then 50-something percent to now 85%. Some people are like, is it going to start outstripping revenue? And that's a serious question you've got to at least consider, right? So that's going on. And then problem number three. It's a minor problem, but it matters significantly, is this. P ratios. We're looking at thousandxtalks.com here. Look at that. Forward P, almost 100 on this stock. You say, well, if it's down a little bit tomorrow and maybe earnings are better, maybe it's a little... Okay, yeah. To your forward P, 70. So... Here's the deal. That's all fine. Like people will pay just about any P ratio as long as you've got the insane growth and you keep accelerating. Once you see that D cell, the valuation starts to become a factor, right? So next quarter, let's say they come in with 89% revenue growth, right? That's still an amazing number, but it's down from 96. Let's say the next quarter, remember, they got to start lapping all these numbers. And that's where things get really, really tough for Palantir next year, right? So then the next quarter, they guide for like 65% revenue growth. Amazing number, but that's a long way from 96%. In the next quarter, they guide for 48%. Next quarter, they guide for 32%. I mean, those are still great numbers, but when you're used to all of a sudden revenues grow 90%, right? And then you're down to 30% a year later, year and a half later, it's a problem. It's a problem, right? And so, especially when your valuation trades at where Palantir trades at. And so that's... how all these pieces of puzzle kind of come together there, right? So is Palantir a buy or a sell or a hold? Here's my opinion, okay? Okay. The next 12 months, If Palantir's, because obviously what you're willing to pay for the stock in five years from now is a different price than what you're willing to pay five months from now. So this is just looking at the next 12 months. Stock's over 200, it's a sell. Stocks under 125, it's a buy. The further it's under 125, the bigger buy it is. If it's in that 125 to 200 range, It's a hold. So right now, it's one of those situations, somebody like myself, I have Palantir shares. I'm just going to hold those shares for right now. Right. If we went over 200, I'd be interested in selling some more shares of Palantir. Right. And obviously I sold the majority last year. If it went under 125, I'd be interested in actually buying and acquiring Palantir shares. And if it went down to 100 or went down like 85 bucks or something. Give me, give me, give me, give me, give me, give me, give me. OK, so that's Palantir. OK, next up here, let's talk about my next Palantir stock and then we'll go from there. day it was a busy day in x for me okay uh once again if you guys want to follow me on there i've always had that linked in the description area of all my videos right I said, I bought Palantir for $7. My next Palantir is this. When I was buying Palantir for $7 in 2022, it was a stock that almost no one believed in. If anyone did believe in the stock, they were scared to speak about it. Only a few proud people, like a nit, would speak about it. Proudly and publicly, right? Obviously, I've covered the stock extensively in 22, 23. I mean, I've covered it for, you know, I really started covering a lot in 22 and then obviously ever since. Palantir achieved growth rates that were beyond even what many of us were expecting. Our expectations were much more modest than what they achieved. I see a similar setup currently with... Celsius, the wealthiest stock in the 20s, as many have given up on it. Meanwhile, I think growth rates could be much stronger 2027 through 2029 than any of us are anticipating. I don't think Celsius will necessarily go up 1500 to 2000 percent like Palantir did, but 200 to 500 percent is possible. Okay? So... Here's the deal. Celsius, a lot of people have given up on this talk. right and um they've thrown it out and you might say well how do you know a lot of people have given Have you seen the stock price the last few years? You know, a few years ago, the stock was $96. It was almost $100 a share. Today, you can buy shares in the 20s. in the 20s. That is The clear indication that a lot of people have given up on the stock. No different than Palantir. Palantir, you know, before it crashed, it was at like 40 bucks a share. And people were paying 40 bucks a share, 30 something dollars a share. And it crashes to seven. At the lows, I think it was like $598. Right.
[30:00] A lot of people have given up on Palantir Star. right And so let me show you something that's very important here so you can understand the math around this. Okay. And what happens. So Celsius. Here's the deal, okay? The growth rates recently have been very, very weak, right? Very, very weak. 10% was a recent quarter. And I think, you know, everybody's expecting extremely weak growth. for a while with Celsius, right? But here's a funny thing about Celsius. It has these random growth rates. Look at this quarter here. They grew 104%. Then it went down to 95%, then 36%, then 23%. Then, you know, and so you could have assumed here that like the companies are going to keep doubling their revenue. Right. And they weren't. And this is way back in 2023. They go down 36% growth, 23% growth. And then look at this quarter they report in 2024. Negative 31% For the revenue, like you would have thought Celsius was done then, right? Then they bring that to only down 4%. So you're like, ooh, okay, we're recovering, but we're still down, right? And then they go to negative 7%. So you could have assumed those growth rates would continue. But then they obviously, by a lot, growth rates explode. 83%, 172%. Then goes down to 117%. Then up to 137%. And in the most recent quarter, only 10% growth, right? So... You can't look at those growth rates and just assume any of them are going to be the long-term growth rate. It's too early. It's way too early with a business model like Celsius to assume Any of these growth rates, you can't assume like they're going to grow 137%. You can't assume they're going to grow 5%. You just can't do that yet with this company by looking at past numbers, right? It's too early in its growth cycle. So if I show you like Palantir, which was a stock when they went public very early in their growth cycle. Here's the thing. They went from 48% growth to 49% growth the next quarter. This is way back in 2021. Then they go down 35%. 34%, 30%, 25%, 21%, 17%, 17%, then all the way down to 12% in 2023 for their growth rate. You could have assumed Palantir is only going to grow 10%, 15%. Revenue growth. For future years, right? And so if you want to know why the stock crashed from the 30s and the 40s down to six bucks or 598 at the lows, right? It's because they went from 49% growth to 12% growth in a matter of a couple of years there, right? Now you could have assumed Okay, that's going to be like that forever. But guess what? It wasn't, right? It was way too early in Palantir's growth cycle to assume it's all over and like that's going to be their growth rate forever. So then what happened over the next several years, growth rates went from 12% to the peak where they just peaked at. 96% Revenant growth, right? So when you're dealing with these companies and Celsius is a very early days company still, you know, when you're talking about drink companies, well-established drink companies are around for decades, decades, right? Silzy has no one heard of that company seven years ago. No one heard of it seven years ago. And now they've got 20% market share of energy drinks between Alani, Celsius, and then they also own the Rockstar brand. It's incredible what they've been able to pull off and achieve, right? But no one heard of that company seven years ago. Like pre-Rona? Yeah. Celsius? The wealthiest? Huh? What? Right? But you look at these other companies, they're very well established. Like Monster has been in the game two plus decades now, right? And if you go back before that, it was Hanson's Natural Beverage before they even launched Monster Drink. And so they got even a deeper history in that. But if you just look at the Monster history, they've been around nearly 25 years now at this point in time, right? Look at Coca-Cola and Pepsi. Those companies have been around for, you know, since your grandparents were around. I mean, these companies are like, oh, geez. Celsius, no one heard of this company seven years ago. They're so early days. And so it reminds me a lot of Monster back in the day when I first started investing in Monster. They were still very early in their growth cycle. They were much further along at that time than Celsius is right now. Do keep that in mind. But still – You couldn't even predict monster's exact growth rates at that particular time. Like people thought monster's growth was done. And then it was like, Oh, maybe they grow 5% or 10% a year. And then they would come out with these quarters sometimes where they grew 20% plus, like, you know, you're too early days, too early days to assume. So the exciting thing with Celsius is that's going to be story. One is revenue growth. Well, probably come in better in 27 and other years. And a lot of people are anticipating, right? Then you're going to have a margin story. That's going to occur. Gross margin story specifically. That will occur longer term, right? And then you'll have a net margin story that will occur with Celsius. And that will be a big focus as well. Right? And so, I can see how Celsius – so as of right now, we're up $27,000 so far on this stock in the public account. This is so early days in this investment. I'm actually still in acquisition mode with Celsius. It's a quarter million dollar position in the public account. I would love to make that position a lot bigger. Right. But the moral of the story is
[35:00] I can see how Celsius gets back to $100 stock, which is almost where it peaked at. It was peaked at like 96 back, you know, some few years ago. I can see how it gets to 100 and even beyond and breaks new all time highs long term. Right. I can see how it can get there. And it's really a story of revenue growth. margin growth on the top line and then margin growth on the bottom line and i think Throughout that over the next couple of years, we'll see $100 and beyond, right? What you'll see in the short term, who knows? You know, everybody gets really tied up into what the Nielsen data is in the short term and those sorts of things. And all that matters, but it's just like you can't judge a long-term brand just on – because, you know, people did that with Monster so many times and we're wrong again and again and again and again and again, right? And just keep in mind with these drink companies, listen. You can launch drinks or you can buy drinks. And so a lot of times people look at you know, the core product they have and they think that's the only thing. No. Like I watched monster back when I was a monster shareholder and it was Hanson's natural beverage. They got into so many different product lines. They launched sugar-free drinks and different flavored drinks, and then they got into like You know, coffee related monsters. And then they eventually, you know, I got out of the company and then over the years they got into Rain Energy and they launched that product. And Rain Energy is a very successful product. Right. And then they end up buying out Bang Energy over time as well. Right. As well as they got some other brands from Coca-Cola. And you look at Celsius and it's like, you know, look at how many products and SKUs they've expanded into over the years. Right. And then they bought Alani, which Alani is incredibly successful and should be a lot more successful in the future and international expansion. Now they also own Rockstar, which was a well-established brand a long time ago. Right. Very small market share, but they should be able to expand that over time. So. At the end of the day, you really look at So these companies in these great drink companies, they buy a lot of brands out. They expand those brands and then they can also launch new brands. that are successes over time, right? And get into different product categories. So something to keep in mind there. Next up here, let's get into a great hidden stock. That is a buy, okay? Look at this. This company just came out with earnings this morning. Graded them an A grade. Net sales up 7%. Cost of sales down 3%. Gross profit up 10%. Gross margin up to 75.7% from 73.4%. Winner, winner, chicken dinner. SG&A only up 3%. Total operating expense is up 1%. Operating income went to $408 million in the quarter from $169 million in the same quarter last year. That's well over a double up there, right? Operating income margin, whoa, jumped to 11%. Versus 4.9% in the same quarter last year. Earnings before income taxes. $345 million versus only $109 million in the same quarter last year. Oh my gosh. Net earnings. $200. And $33 million from $47 million in Sincor last year. That's like a 5X year over year. Like what? Deluded EPS, 64 cents versus 13 cents in Sincor last year. These numbers are just banger. Look at the cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet. This is versus the same time last year. They went from $2.2 billion of cash to almost $3.2 billion now in this most recent quarter. Long-term debt went from $7.3 billion down to $6.7 billion. Right. And then we look at total equity went from three point eight billion to over four billion. Right. I guess that's incredible. Like this company is doing it, right? If you don't know This company is a company that does business all over the globe. The Americas division was up 5%. EU business was up 2%. Asia business was up 9%. Mainly in China, 15%. This company does sell beauty related products. Skin care up 5%, makeup up 2%, fragrance had a banger quarter up 19%, hair care was down 1%, but that's a small line item there. Other was up 12%. The company is. Este, louder, say it louder for the people in the back. It's $104 stock as of right now. This stock was a $370 stock in the 2020s. We have a chance to, I don't know about go to 370, but we have a chance to go somewhere between there. I'm not even talking about new all-time highs. I'm just talking like we have a chance to double up this stock, maybe even triple it up. So far, I'm up $63,000 in the public account. Long way to go. I hope you guys enjoyed today's video. I appreciate you all for joining me. We got so much going on. You want to join the private group? That will be the pinned comment down there. Click on that. We'll send you your steel membership cards to your house once you join us in there. Access to all my course curriculums. Access to JeremyGPT. Access to the Discord chat. Exclusive videos. I recorded my private group of video today. So much. Much love and have a great day.
