Cities Spend Billions on Climate Adaptation as Disaster Costs Surge

Bloomberg Originals

Building massive flood tunnels and seawalls offers critical protection for sinking megacities, but relying on physical engineering creates a moral hazard that threatens to derail essential carbon emission cuts.

AI-assisted summary of The $100 Billion Builds That Are Keeping Cities Dry | Bloomberg Primer — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-05-21

Detailed notes

## Background Published on YouTube by Bloomberg Originals on May 20, 2026, this video from the Bloomberg Primer series explores how global cities are investing billions into massive engineering projects and innovative local initiatives to adapt to increasingly frequent and costly flood disasters.

## TL;DR Floods now represent nearly half of all global natural disasters, turning climate adaptation into a projected $1.3 trillion market as cities struggle to safeguard populations and assets. Japan is leading large-scale engineering defenses with its $2 billion underground discharge channel in Tokyo and a broader $110 billion resilience framework, while Indonesia faces sinking urban land through an $80 billion seawall proposal and a $29 billion capital relocation to Nusantara. Meanwhile, grassroots models like Nairobi's $78,000 black soldier fly farming project offer low-cost circular solutions to clear clogged drainages in informal settlements. However, experts emphasize that while adaptation is economically essential, it cannot replace aggressive emission cuts, warning against the moral hazard of assuming technology alone can solve the climate crisis.

## Atmosphere & style The video carries a sleek, analytical, and cinematic tone, blending high-stakes investigative journalism with data-driven economic insights. It balances awe-inspiring views of mega-engineering marvels—such as Tokyo's cavernous 'Underground Temple'—with grounded, humanizing field reports from the fragile shorelines of Jakarta and the informal settlements of Nairobi. The overall narrative creates an urgent yet pragmatic mood, oscillating between the staggering financial reality of global disaster losses and the creative resilience of communities fighting to stay dry.

## Key takeaways - [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1s) Floods account for nearly half of all global natural disasters, driving a growing shift toward climate adaptation and engineering solutions. - [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1s) Wall Street and institutional investors view climate resilience as a viable, revenue-generating $1.3 trillion global market. - [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=131s) Tokyo built the $2 billion Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel, an subterranean system that reduced targeted flood damage by 90%. - [04:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=275s) Under the Tokyo Resilience Project, Japan plans to spend $110 billion by the 2040s to safeguard its capital against climate threats and natural disasters. - [06:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=370s) Global natural disasters caused $320 billion in economic losses in 2024, with roughly 90% linked to extreme weather events. - [06:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=370s) Adaptation is increasingly recognized as a proactive investment that prevents costly post-disaster rebuilding and protects valuable real estate assets. - [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) Dutch flood defenses demonstrate strong returns on investment, with projections estimating up to $21 billion in prevented coastal flood losses by 2100. - [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) As the world's fastest-sinking megacity, Jakarta faces massive coastal flooding challenges caused by soft soils and unchecked groundwater extraction. - [10:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=631s) Indonesia expanded its coastal defense plans into an $80 billion, 20-year mega-seawall program spanning 310 miles along Java. - [10:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=631s) Indonesia is relocating its capital to Nusantara at an official baseline estimate of $29 billion to escape Jakarta's severe environmental vulnerabilities. - [17:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1030s) Community-led, low-cost projects like black soldier fly farming in Nairobi clear organic waste from drainage channels to prevent flash flooding. - [17:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1030s) Decentralized circular economy models priced at under $80,000 offer scalable flood mitigation for the 1 billion people living in informal settlements. - [22:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1332s) Catastrophic events like Category 5 Hurricane Melissa demonstrate the physical limits of adaptation and highlight an estimated $300 billion funding shortfall. - [22:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1332s) Over-relying on engineering adaptation poses a moral hazard if it reduces the urgency to aggressively cut greenhouse gas emissions.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1s) Taming the Monster: The Shift to Climate Adaptation

Throughout human history, those who have mastered water have prospered. As early as 8,000 BCE, irrigation systems in the Fertile Crescent earned the region its title as the "Cradle of Civilization." Centuries later, the construction of the 40-mile Panama Canal connected the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, revolutionizing global trade by cutting dangerous sea journeys down to just 10 hours. In China, the Three Gorges Dam emerged as the world's largest single source of green power. However, humanity no longer operates under the stable climate that supported most of human evolution. Today, gentle rivers can transform overnight into destructive monsters, releasing vast deluges that destroy homes and cost human lives.

Floods now account for nearly half of all natural disasters globally, and their frequency has soared compared to previous decades. In response, cities across the globe are turning toward massive engineering feats and creative urban initiatives—ranging from underground flood tunnels in Japan and massive seawalls in Indonesia to insect farms in Kenya. With a projected global adaptation market reaching $1.3 trillion, Wall Street and institutional investors are increasingly viewing climate resilience not merely as a high-cost precaution, but as a viable, revenue-generating business sector.

- **Historical Milestones**: Fertile Crescent irrigation (~8,000 BCE), Panama Canal (40-mile connection; 10-hour transit), Three Gorges Dam. - **Market Size**: The climate adaptation sector is projected to reach $1.3 trillion. - **Disaster Prevalence**: Floods make up almost 50% of all natural disasters worldwide.

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[02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=131s) Inside Tokyo’s $2 Billion Underground Temple

Deep beneath an unassuming exterior in Japan lies the Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel, the world's largest underground flood tunnel system. Built over 13 years at a cost of roughly $2 billion, this massive subterranean complex protects Saitama Prefecture and the greater Tokyo region. When torrential rains hit, five colossal vertical concrete silos—each 70 meters deep and spacious enough "for a space shuttle to take a bath"—capture overflowing water from surrounding rivers. The water is funneled through a 6.3-kilometer underground storage tunnel situated 50 meters below the surface before flowing into a giant pressure control tank known as the "Underground Temple."

Supervised by engineers like Yoshio Miyazaki, high-powered pumps force the accumulated water out into the Edo River. By keeping this entire infrastructure hidden underground, Japan preserves valuable surface land for residential and commercial development. Since its completion, the facility has reduced local residential flood damage by an astounding 90%.

- **Facility**: Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel (Saitama Prefecture, Japan). - **Construction Details**: Took 13 years to build at a cost of approximately $2 billion. - **Key Dimensions**: 5 vertical silos (70 meters deep each), 6.3-kilometer storage tunnel (50 meters underground), pressure control tank ("Underground Temple"). - **Efficacy**: Has reduced home flooding damage in the targeted zone by 90%.

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[04:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=275s) Japan’s $110 Billion Plan for the Next Century

Japan's proactive approach to disaster management stems from its precarious position along the "Ring of Fire," a Pacific zone prone to frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Historically, Japan's structured preparedness traces back over a century to the Great Kantō Earthquake of 1923, which devastated Tokyo and killed tens of thousands. Today, every segment of Japanese society—from national government agencies and private businesses to schools and local community groups—practices systematic disaster preparedness.

As a metro economy second only to New York in size, Tokyo alone generates roughly 20% of Japan's national GDP and houses 37 million residents. To safeguard this economic engine against long-term climate threats, officials launched the Tokyo Resilience Project in 2022. This flagship initiative aims to protect the capital over the next century against floods, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions through extensive physical upgrades, including raising seawalls, constructing additional levees, and elevating key infrastructure.

- **Economic Weight**: Tokyo's metropolitan area houses 37 million people and accounts for ~20% of Japan's total GDP. - **Historical Catalyst**: The Great Kantō Earthquake of 1923. - **Tokyo Resilience Project**: Launched in 2022; targets a $110 billion investment by the 2040s to fortify infrastructure against natural disasters.

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[06:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=370s) The Economics of Adaptation: From Risk to Revenue

Climate economist Gernot Wagner—playfully introduced as "juggernaut without the jug"—challenges the common misconception that adaptation is merely a charitable cause championed by environmentalists. While market failures created the climate crisis, economic incentives and capital deployment are essential to solving it. According to reinsurer Munich Re, global natural disasters caused approximately $320 billion in total economic damage in 2024, up from $268 billion in 2023, with roughly 90% of those losses linked to weather events like hurricanes, typhoons, and flooding.

Prominent figures like Bill Gates have championed adaptation investments because disasters carry massive hidden costs. Traditional mindsets tend to react to destruction after the fact—paying heavily for debris removal and rebuilding—rather than investing upfront. However, forward-thinking investors and financial markets are beginning to view resilience as a proactive strategy that preserves valuable real estate assets and generates new revenue streams through construction, engineering, and technology services.

- **Disaster Costs (Munich Re Data)**: $320 billion in global natural disaster losses in 2024 (up from $268 billion in 2023). - **Weather Share**: Weather-related events account for ~90% of total financial disaster losses. - **Economic Insight**: Adaptation functions like a business taking early bets to diversify and build reserves ahead of a market downturn.

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[08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) Dutch Expertise and Jakarta’s Sinking Crisis

The economic return on adaptation is well demonstrated in the Netherlands, where extensive dike construction along the coastline yields benefits that far outweigh the costs. Analyses project that Dutch flood defenses could prevent up to $21 billion in cumulative coastal flooding losses by the year 2100. Renowned globally for their water management expertise, Dutch engineering firms now export their skills worldwide. One prominent firm, Witteveen+Bos—which operates 23 offices across nine countries and executed the reconstruction of the iconic Afsluitdijk dam—is currently tackling the critical flooding crisis in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Jakarta holds the title of the fastest-sinking megacity in the world, primarily because it was built on soft soils that compress under urban weight. Victor Coenen, a lead engineer at Witteveen+Bos who is affectionately known as "Mr. Seawall," emphasizes that while simple seawalls can cost around $100 million per kilometer, they are not a universal fix. High, basic walls block communities from accessing the ocean and disrupt local fishing industries, whereas wider, sloped designs or offshore land reclamation allow for recreational spaces and real estate development—though at significantly higher financial and time costs.

- **Dutch Projections**: Avoided coastal flood losses in the Netherlands estimated up to $21 billion by 2100. - **Engineering Firm**: Witteveen+Bos (23 offices in 9 countries; projects include the Afsluitdijk dike reconstruction). - **Seawall Economics**: Standard simple seawall builds cost approximately $100 million per kilometer.

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[10:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=631s) Indonesia’s Mega-Seawall and the Move to Nusantara

Under President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia has dramatically escalated its coastal protection strategy. While a giant seawall project had been discussed since at least 1995 as a $10 billion concept, President Subianto proposed an ambitious $80 billion program spanning 20 years to construct a 310-mile seawall along Java's coast. Past designs have varied widely; over three decades, engineers developed at least 25 different iterations, including an extravagant design shaped like the mythic eagle-like demigod Garuda that was intended to host presidential palaces and government ministries before being deemed too complex and expensive.

Coastal engineer Tiara Salsabila from Witteveen+Bos illustrates the stark contrast between different coastal structures in Jakarta. In her childhood neighborhood of Kalibaru, a wide, modern seawall was built that doubled as a vibrant public space for community leisure. Conversely, in areas like Luar Batang, the existing seawalls remain alarmingly thin, fragile, and space-restricted, offering minimal defense against encroaching waters.

To escape these persistent vulnerabilities, Indonesia is simultaneously pursuing an alternative route: relocating its capital entirely. The nation is constructing a brand-new city called Nusantara, with initial official cost estimates set at $29 billion—a figure expected to rise significantly. Current leadership must balance this dual burden of funding both Nusantara and the mega-seawall while managing high youth unemployment and broader economic development goals.

- **Indonesia’s Giant Seawall Plan**: Expanded from a $10 billion concept to an $80 billion, 20-year program covering ~310 miles. - **Capital Relocation**: Capital city movement to Nusantara carrying an official baseline estimate of $29 billion. - **Root Cause**: In addition to rising sea levels, Jakarta suffers from severe "land subsidence" caused by widespread, un-piped groundwater extraction by residents and businesses.

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[17:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1030s) Fly Farms and Circular Economies in Nairobi

High-cost infrastructure projects are not the only answer to climate adaptation; smaller, natural, and community-driven solutions can be equally effective. Concepts like "sponge cities"—which use urban green spaces to absorb and store rainwater—originated in China and have spread globally as low-cost, highly replicable alternatives to concrete walls. In Nairobi, Kenya, an even more unusual adaptation strategy is taking root to tackle localized urban flooding.

Nairobi's population of 5 million is expected to double by 2050, with over half of its residents living in informal settlements like Mukuru where municipal infrastructure is virtually non-existent. In these areas, heavy rains trigger severe flash floods because open drainage ditches become clogged with uncollected household garbage. To solve this, a youth-led initiative introduced black soldier fly farming. Workers collect waste door-to-door, sort out recyclables, and feed the remaining organic waste to black soldier fly larvae. The voracious larvae rapidly consume the decaying matter before it can block drainage channels.

Organizers can then sell the nutrient-rich larvae as alternative animal feed—offsetting the rising cost of traditional agricultural protein—or allow them to mature into adult flies to lay more eggs. At a total project setup cost of roughly 10 million Kenyan shillings (about $78,000 USD), this low-tech approach turns an environmental hazard into a self-sustaining circular economy. With over 1 billion people worldwide living in informal settlements, such decentralized waste and flood management models offer a scalable blueprint for vulnerable urban centers.

- **Demographics**: Nairobi's 5 million population projected to double by 2050; >50% reside in informal settlements. - **Project Economics**: Black soldier fly waste management unit in Mukuru cost ~10 million Kenyan shillings (~$78,000 USD). - **Mechanism**: Larvae consume organic waste that would otherwise clog urban drainage, transforming potential flood hazards into protein-dense animal feed. - **Global Context**: Over 1 billion people globally live in informal settlements facing similar infrastructure challenges.

[22:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1332s) The Limits of Adaptation and the Threat of Moral Hazard

As the reality of accelerating global warming sets in, there is a growing realization that engineering and local adaptation efforts alone will not be enough to save every community. Small and highly vulnerable island nations face the brunt of this crisis, illustrated by the devastation wrought on Jamaica by Hurricane Melissa. The severe Category 5 storm served as a brutal reminder of the limits of physical defenses and highlighted an immense funding shortfall, with estimates suggesting that an additional $300 billion in climate finance is urgently needed. The sheer scale of damage caused by extreme weather events demonstrates that even massive infrastructure projects cannot completely shield vulnerable populations from the escalating climate threat.

The fundamental relationship between climate mitigation and adaptation requires a dual approach. Even if all global greenhouse gas emissions were to cease immediately, the planet is already locked into substantial future warming, meaning humanity will have to live with—and adapt to—the ongoing consequences. However, experts warn against falling into the trap of "moral hazard." In the same way that wearing a seatbelt might entice someone to drive faster, or putting on a bike helmet might encourage a cyclist to ride recklessly due to a false sense of security, relying too heavily on adaptation creates a dangerous illusion. Promoting the idea that society can simply build giant seawalls and engineer its way out of trouble risks signaling that cutting carbon dioxide emissions isn't urgent. Ultimately, the crucial challenge is to leverage the pressing, visible need for adaptation as a catalyst to aggressively accelerate global emission reductions.

- **Devastating Impact:** Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, illustrating the vulnerability of small island nations. - **Financial Gap:** An estimated **$300 billion** more in funding is required to adequately address climate adaptation and resilience needs. - **Core Dilemma:** Over-reliance on adaptation measures creates a "moral hazard" by risking the postponement of necessary CO₂ emission cuts.

## Notable quotes > [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=131s) space shuttle to take a bath

> [06:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=370s) juggernaut without the jug

> [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) Mr. Seawall

> The $100 Billion Builds That Are Keeping Cities Dry

> [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=131s) Underground Temple — Yoshio Miyazaki

> [04:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=275s) Ring of Fire

> [17:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1030s) sponge cities

> [22:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1332s) moral hazard

## Mentioned Bloomberg Originals, Bloomberg Primer, Tokyo, Jakarta, Nairobi, Saitama Prefecture, Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel, Edo River, Yoshio Miyazaki, Tokyo Resilience Project, Gernot Wagner, Munich Re, Bill Gates, Netherlands, Witteveen+Bos, Victor Coenen, Prabowo Subianto, Kalibaru, Luar Batang, Nusantara, Mukuru, Jamaica, Panama Canal, Three Gorges Dam, Tiara Salsabila

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k)

中文简报

灾害损失激增，城市斥资数十亿美元推进气候适应建造巨型防洪隧道和海堤为下沉的大型城市提供了关键防护，但过度依赖物理工程会带来道德风险，可能破坏至关重要的碳减排努力。洪水目前占全球自然灾害的近一半，随着各大城市竭力保护居民与资产，气候适应正在演变为一个预计达1.3万亿美元的市场。日本凭借东京耗资20亿美元的地下分洪水道及更广泛的1100亿美元韧性规划在大型防御工程领域保持领先；而印度尼西亚则针对城市地面下沉提出了800亿美元的海堤方案，并斥资290亿美元迁都至Nusantara。与此同时，内罗毕耗资7.8万美元的黑水虻养殖项目等基层模式，为清理非正规聚居区堵塞的排水系统提供了低成本的循环解决方案。然而专家强调，尽管适应措施在经济上不可或缺，但它无法替代强有力的碳减排，并警告切勿产生仅凭技术就能解决气候危机的道德风险。洪灾已占全球自然灾害的近一半，华尔街与机构投资者正将气候韧性视为一个规模达1.3万亿美元的新兴商业市场，推动防灾由被动重建转向主动投资。 (0:01) 东京耗资20亿美元建成的“地下神殿”防洪隧道将目标区域住宅洪灾损失削减了90%，在此基础上日本推出“东京韧性项目”，计划到2040年代投资1100亿美元抵御长期自然灾害威胁。 (2:11) 作为全球下沉速度最快的大都市，雅加达正推进长达20年、预计耗资800亿美元的巨型海堤工程，印尼同时还面临耗资至少290亿美元迁都努山塔拉的双重财政压力。 (10:31) 气候适应不仅涵盖内罗毕利用黑水虻清理垃圾以防管道淤堵等低成本方案，但也面临约3000亿美元的资金缺口，专家警告过度依赖工程适应可能引发推迟减排的“道德风险”。 (22:12)

Reading summary

As climate disasters generate hundreds of billions in annual losses, urban adaptation is shifting from reactive emergency relief into a projected $1.3 trillion commercial market. While massive engineering builds and decentralized community projects safeguard vital economic centers, analysts emphasize that local adaptation cannot substitute for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Capitalizing on Resilience: The $1.3 Trillion Market (6:10) Floods account for roughly 50% of natural disasters globally. According to reinsurer Munich Re, global natural disasters inflicted $320 billion in economic losses in 2024, an increase from $268 billion in 2023, with weather-related events responsible for approximately 90% of the damage. Climate economist Gernot Wagner and investors like Bill Gates argue that the historical approach—absorbing the steep costs of post-disaster cleanup and rebuilding—is economically inefficient compared to upfront investment. Consequently, institutional capital is beginning to view climate resilience as a viable commercial sector projected to reach $1.3 trillion. Rather than treating flood mitigation solely as a public expenditure or charitable effort, investors and engineering firms are pursuing proactive infrastructure projects that protect valuable real estate assets while generating recurring revenue through specialized technology, construction, and water management services. Subterranean Defense: Japan’s Mega-Engineering Strategy (2:11) To safeguard the Tokyo metropolitan area—home to 37 million people and generator of roughly 20% of Japan's GDP—authorities have invested heavily in large-scale civil protection. The Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel in Saitama Prefecture was constructed over 13 years for approximately $2 billion. Featuring five 70-meter-deep silos and a 6.3-kilometer tunnel 50 meters underground, the facility directs excess floodwaters into a massive pressure control tank before pumping them into the Edo River, reducing residential flood damage in its target zone by 90% while preserving surface land for commercial use. In response to long-term risks rooted in Japan's location along the Pacific Ring of Fire—a historical preparedness priority dating to the 1923 Great Kantō Earthquake—the government launched the Tokyo Resilience Project in 2022. The initiative plans $110 billion in investments through the 2040s to fortify the capital against floods, earthquakes, and volcanic disruptions by elevating key infrastructure and building higher seawalls and levees. Jakarta's Dual Burden: Coastal Seawalls and Relocation (8:37) The economic return of flood defenses is illustrated by the Netherlands, where dike networks are projected to avert up to $21 billion in coastal flood losses by 2100, enabling Dutch engineering firms like Witteveen+Bos to export expertise globally. However, deploying these solutions abroad entails steep trade-offs. In Jakarta, the world's fastest-sinking megacity due to soft soils and un-piped groundwater extraction, standard simple seawalls cost roughly $100 million per kilometer and block fishing access, while wider multipurpose dikes require significantly more capital and time. Under President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia has proposed an $80 billion, 20-year program to construct a 310-mile seawall along the coast of Java, abandoning earlier ornate designs like the Garuda-shaped offshore city as overly complex. Simultaneously, the government is pursuing capital relocation to Nusantara, an initiative carrying an initial baseline estimate of $29 billion. This dual track forces policymakers to balance substantial adaptation financing against pressing economic priorities, such as youth unemployment. Decentralized Adaptation: Waste Management in Informal Settlements (17:10) High-capital infrastructure is not the sole viable adaptation method. While China's 'sponge city' model uses green space to absorb stormwater, low-income urban districts are deploying low-cost circular solutions. In Nairobi, Kenya, where the population of 5 million is expected to double by 2050 and over half live in informal settlements like Mukuru, flash floods are routinely triggered because uncollected domestic waste clogs open drainage channels. To address this infrastructure gap, a local youth initiative established a black soldier fly farming facility for roughly 10 million Kenyan shillings (approximately $78,000 USD). Workers collect organic waste to feed the fly larvae, which consume the refuse before it can obstruct stormwater drains. The harvested larvae are then sold as protein-dense animal feed, generating revenue while mitigating flood hazards. With over 1 billion people living in informal settlements worldwide, this decentralized model provides an affordable blueprint for under-resourced cities. Physical defenses and local adaptation have clear boundaries. The destruction inflicted on Jamaica by Category 5 Hurricane Melissa highlighted a severe $300 billion global financing gap for vulnerable nations facing extreme weather. Furthermore, experts warn that relying heavily on engineered defenses introduces a moral hazard: the perception that cities can simply engineer their way out of danger risks creating a false sense of security that delays urgent, necessary reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions.

精炼阅读摘要

面对洪水占全球自然灾害近半数的严峻现实，气候适应正从被动的事后抢险转向预计达1.3万亿美元的庞大商业与基建投资市场；然而，由于超级灾害频发与数百亿美元资金缺口并存，工程防御无法替代减排，且过度依赖工程可能引发推迟减排的道德风险。资本重构：气候适应迈向万亿投资市场 (6:10) 慕尼黑再保险（Munich Re）数据显示，2024年全球自然灾害造成的经济损失从2023年的2680亿美元攀升至3200亿美元，其中约90%归因于飓风、台风及洪涝等气象灾害。洪灾目前已占据全球自然灾害的近50%，发生频次远超以往年代。面对日益严重的破坏，事后清理废墟并高额重建的传统应对模式带来了巨大的隐形成本，迫使资金转向前置性预防。气候经济学家Gernot Wagner指出，适应工程绝非单纯由环保倡导者推动的慈善事业，而是需要依托市场机制与资本配置来破解的经济课题。比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）等人士及华尔街机构投资者正将气候韧性视作一个规模预计达1.3万亿美元的新兴商业领域。前瞻性资本不再将防灾支出视作沉没成本，而是作为在市场下行前分散风险、保全沿海与都市不动产价值，并通过建筑、工程及技术服务获取长期回报的主动投资策略。重型防洪：日本地下工程与百年韧性计划 (2:11) 地处环太平洋火山带的日本，自1923年关东大地震造成数万人丧生后，便形成了全社会系统化的防灾机制。作为仅次于纽约的全球第二大都市经济体，东京都居住着3700万人口，贡献了日本约20%的国内生产总值。为保护该经济引擎抵御长期的复合自然威胁，官方于2022年启动“东京韧性项目”（Tokyo Resilience Project），计划在2040年代前投入1100亿美元，通过加高海堤、增筑堤坝和抬升核心基建设施，构筑抵御洪灾、地震及火山喷发的百年防线。在地下工程方面，耗资约20亿美元、历时13年建成的“首都圈外围排水道”是全球规模最大的地下防洪隧道系统。在工程师宫崎吉雄（Yoshio Miyazaki）等人的管理下，5个各深70米、足以容纳航天飞机的混凝土立轴负责分流周边河流水量，经地表下50米深、长6.3公里的地下隧道导入被誉为“地下神殿”的调压水槽，再由大功率水泵强力排入江户川。该设施不仅将受保护区域的住宅洪灾损失削减了90%，更将庞大设施隐藏于地下，保全了地表珍贵的商住开发土地。海岸博弈：印尼巨型海堤与迁都代价 (8:37) 荷兰在本土的筑堤经验证明了适应措施的显著效益，其海岸工程预计到2100年可避免高达210亿美元的累积洪水损失。以参与阿夫鲁戴克大坝重建、在9个国家设有23处分支的Witteveen+Bos为代表的荷兰工程企业，正积极向外输出水利专业经验。然而该机构首席工程师Victor Coenen指出，标准简易海堤的建造成本约为每公里1亿美元，且硬质高墙会切断社区与海洋的联系并打击捕鱼业；兼具公共休憩和地产开发价值的宽斜坡或离岸填海设计虽然更为宜居，但资金与时间成本大幅增加。在面临软弱土层受压与居民大量无管网抽取地下水导致严重地面沉降的雅加达，水患防御呈现严峻分化。工程师Tiara Salsabila指出，从卡利巴鲁（Kalibaru）兼顾公共空间的现代化宽海堤，到鲁阿尔巴塘（Luar Batang）单薄脆弱的防浪墙，不同区域的防御能力差异巨大。印尼总统普拉博沃（Prabowo Subianto）将曾构想为100亿美元的海堤计划扩容为耗资800亿美元、跨期20年且长达310英里的巨型海堤工程。在此背景下，印尼还在同步推进基准估算达290亿美元的新首都努桑塔拉（Nusantara）建设，使政府在应对高青年失业率与经济增长诉求的同时，背负沉重的双重财政开支压力。生态循环：奈洛比非正规社区生物防洪 (17:10) 除了造价高昂的混凝土重型防线，起源于中国并向全球推广的“海绵城市”利用绿地蓄水，提供了一种低成本替代路径。在肯尼亚首都奈洛比，一种更为轻量化、去中心化的社区适应模式正在成型。奈洛比500万人口预计到2050年将翻倍，其中半数以上生活在政企管网缺失的非正规聚落。在穆库鲁（Mukuru）等贫民窟，未被清理的生活垃圾堵塞露天排水沟，每逢暴雨极易引发严重的内涝灾害。当地青年发起的黑水虻养殖项目将防洪与固废处置有机结合。该项目设立总成本约为1000万肯尼亚先令（约合7.8万美元），工人上门收集住户垃圾并分拣回收物，将剩余有机废弃物喂食给黑水虻幼虫。幼虫能在垃圾堵塞排水通道前将其高效吞食分解，随后作为高蛋白动物饲料出售以抵消农业成本，或留作种蝇繁育。鉴于全球有超过10亿人口居住在面临类似基础设施短缺的非正规聚落，此类利用极低成本转化水患隐患为循环经济的方案，展现出广阔的分散化推广潜力。防御极限：工程边界与减排道德风险 (22:12) 工程防御与就地适应措施无法彻底抵御所有气候灾难，小岛屿脆弱国家在此类冲击中尤为脆弱。5级飓风“梅丽莎”（Hurricane Melissa）对牙买加造成的毁灭性打击，暴露了物理防线的承载上限与巨大的资金缺口。据测算，全球气候适应与韧性领域仍面临高达3000亿美元的额外资金需求，再宏大的工程体量也难以完全隔绝极端气象的破坏力。更深层的战略挑战在于过度依赖适应可能诱发的“道德风险”。正如系安全带或佩戴自行车头盔容易赋予使用者虚假的安全感、进而诱发更激进的驾驶与骑行行为一样，宣扬社会能够依靠巨型工程和海堤化解危机的叙事，极易误导公众和决策层，释放出遏制碳排放不再紧迫的危险信号。专家警示，尽管既有的气候变暖惯性决定了人类必须推进适应，但决不能将工程适应作为替代碳减排的退路，而必须以现实的防灾压力作为倒逼全球减排提速的催化剂。气候适应正演进为形态多样且兼具万亿美元市场前景的全球行动，从超大型地下排水设施到基层生物废弃物处置各具应用价值。然而，面对3000亿美元的适应资金缺口与超级极端天气的物理极限，工程手段无法提供绝对保障，其核心意义在于为减缓气候变暖争取缓冲窗口，绝不能成为削弱碳减排紧迫性的避风港。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 本视频由彭博社旗下的 YouTube 频道 Bloomberg Originals 于 2026 年 5 月 21 日发布，属于《Bloomberg Primer》系列深度商业与科技专题节目。节目围绕洪灾占据全球自然灾害半壁江山的严峻现实展开，深入调查从东京地下防洪隧道、雅加达巨型海堤到内罗毕昆虫治水等各具特色的应对举措，剖析正在崛起的万亿美元级气候适应（Climate Adaptation）产业及其面对加速变暖时的真实效能。 ## TL;DR 面对日益频发的极端洪涝，气候适应已不再仅是环保倡议，而是演变为各大都会与资本竞相布局的万亿美元级防御工程。节目全面呈现了日本耗资 20 亿美元削减九成水灾损失的东京“地下神殿”泄洪隧道、印尼为挽救沉降危机规划的 800 亿美元雅加达超级海堤与迁都大计，以及内罗毕贫民窟借助黑水虻分解垃圾、低成本疏通排水管网的生物循环创新。然而影片最终警示，工程防御属于“适应”而非“减缓”，防洪基建绝不能掩盖气候治理的深层危机，更要严防因虚假安全感而放缓碳减排的道德风险。 ## Atmosphere & style 整部专题片融合了宏大硬核的工程史诗感与冷峻严谨的财经调查质感，视听呈现极富张力。镜头在东京巍峨空灵的地下立柱、雅加达逼仄危险的破损堤坝与内罗毕充满市井喧嚣的有机废料养殖场之间自如切换，形成了鲜明的阶层与技术反差。旁白与受访学者的叙述专业且克制，在展现人类战天斗海雄心壮志的同时，始终贯穿着对地缘政治、经济代价及生态反噬的深层忧患，让观众在震撼之余感受到如影随形的气候紧迫感。 ## Bulletin - [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1s) 气候适应正从环保道德倡导转变为规模预计达1.3万亿美元的庞大新兴产业，伴随2024年全球自然灾害损失升至3200亿美元且近半数为洪灾，资本市场正将其视为前置资产风控与长期收益的新赛道。 - [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=131s) 日本耗时13年、斥资20亿美元建成的“首都圈外郭放水路”将周边内涝损失削减90%，东京都更进一步推进预计到2040年代累计耗资1100亿美元的“东京韧性项目”以抵御复合巨灾。 - [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) 印尼雅加达推进长达500公里、投资高达800亿美元的巨型海堤规划，但其深层危机在于自来水短缺引发的过度采水与地层严重沉降，逼发了官方预算达290亿美元的努山塔拉迁都工程。 - [18:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1080s) 肯尼亚内罗毕仅耗资约7.8万美元的黑水虻养殖项目，通过生物降解有机垃圾疏通了贫民窟排水渠，证明以自然工法与“海绵城市”为代表的低成本方案在发展中国家极具落地韧性。 ## Key takeaways - [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1s) 洪灾已占全球自然灾害的近半数，气候适应（Climate Adaptation）正在从过去的公益倡议迅速转化为预计达1.3万亿美元的庞大商业与投资产业。 - [06:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=370s) 2024年全球自然灾害造成的经济损失达3200亿美元，其中约90%直接由风暴与洪涝等气象灾害引发，促使金融机构将适应性投资视作守护高价值资产的核心风控手段。 - [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=131s) 东京“首都圈外郭放水路”依靠5座70米深混凝土立轴与巨型地下调压水槽，以约20亿美元的工程投入实现了周边房屋水灾损失降低90%的显著成效。 - [04:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=265s) 地处环太平洋火环带的日本着眼于未来百年的防灾战略，东京都启动“东京韧性项目”，计划至2040年代累计投入1100亿美元全面加固城市防洪抗震系统。 - [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) 荷兰将百年治水防洪经验沉淀为高附加值的技术出口产业，测算显示其本土海堤工程到2100年将为国家挽回210亿美元的潜在洪灾损失。 - [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) 雅加达拟建长达500公里、预算高达800亿美元的巨型外海海堤，但海堤每公里约1亿美元的高昂造价与对渔业生态的阻隔，使得工程设计陷入多重现实博弈。 - [13:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=809s) 在印尼等岛屿发展中国家，超级基建往往承载着极高的政治动员功能，海堤设计方案更迭三十年未定，并伴随预算至少290亿美元的新首都努山塔拉迁建计划。 - [15:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=925s) 海堤无法单一解决雅加达沉没危机，城市供水管网缺失导致的居民无节制地下水开采，造成了剧烈的地面沉降，成为比海平面上升更致命的内部隐患。 - [17:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1030s) 高成本的硬质水泥工程并非治水唯一正解，源自中国的“海绵城市”理念通过透水绿地与人工湿地滞蓄降雨，展现了成本更低且易于复制的自然适应路径。 - [18:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1080s) 内罗毕穆库鲁贫民窟通过耗资约7.8万美元的黑水虻养殖项目，用昆虫高效消纳有机垃圾并畅通排水渠，实现了“把公共灾难化为高蛋白饲料商业闭环”的低成本适应范式。 - [21:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1299s) 适应（Adaptation）无法替代减缓（Mitigation），过度迷信巨型防波堤等硬工程会诱发“道德风险”，导致社会因虚假安全感而推迟碳减排转型这一根本任务。 - [21:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1299s) 全球气候适应资金缺口高达约3000亿美元，资金实力有限的脆弱岛国受灾惨烈，凸显出单纯依赖昂贵防御工程无法弥补的气候失衡鸿沟。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1s) 治水者的崛起：从文明摇篮到万亿美元的气候适应产业自古以来，人类的兴衰便与治水息息相关——正如那句古老格言所言，“善治水者昌”。早在公元前8000年，美索不达米亚肥沃月弯的灌溉灌溉网络便培育了早期的农业聚落，赢得了“文明摇篮”的称号；数千年后，全长约40英里的巴拿马运河横切美洲大陆，将原本漫长凶险的大洋航程骤缩至仅需10小时，深刻重塑了全球贸易版图；而在中国，举世瞩目的三峡大坝则一跃成为全球最大的单体绿色能源基地。千百年间，驯服水流始终是人类文明改造自然的最宏伟篇章。然而在气候剧变加速的今天，水所蕴藏的破坏力正变得前所未有地难以预测。“在人类演化的大部分时间里，地球的气候一直相对稳定；但现在，这种稳定已经不复存在了。”平日里温顺平缓的河流，常常会在暴雨倾盆的短短一夜之间化作吞噬建筑、剥夺生命的洪流猛兽。数据显示，如今洪灾已占全球所有自然灾害的近半数，发生频次相比过去数十年呈现爆发式上升。为了防范水患灭顶之灾，全球各大城市正在开启史无前例的工程抵御战：从深藏地底的巨型泄洪隧道，到横亘海岸的超级防波堤，甚至延展到内罗毕变废为宝的黑水虻养殖场。气候适应（Climate Adaptation）已不再仅仅是环境保护的理念倡导，而是一个预计规模将达1.3万亿美元的庞大新兴产业，迅速进入华尔街与顶级投资机构的视野。正如气候专家所强调的那样，气候适应不仅是完全可行的，而且只要资金投入得当，人类完全有能力在这场全球变局中保全自身。 --- ### [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=131s) 潜入东京“地下神殿”：两百亿打造的首都圈外郭放水路在一扇毫不起眼的铁门下方，隐藏着当今全球规模最为庞大的地下防洪排水系统——日本埼玉县春日部市的“首都圈外郭放水路”（Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel）。整座地下工程宏伟至极，其高度甚至“足以让一架航天飞机在其中洗澡”。该设施的核心使命，是在极端暴雨来袭时，将东京北部埼玉县周边中小河流暴涨的洪水引入地底深处，再通过大功率水泵安全排入宽阔的江户川，从而彻底解除首都圈外围的内涝威胁。这项耗资约20亿美元、历时13年才完全建成的超级水利奇迹，其减灾成效堪称惊人：根据官方评估数据，自投入运行以来，它将周边居民区的洪涝受灾损失硬生生削减了90%。负责该设施维护与工程监管的宫崎义雄（Yoshio Miyazaki）介绍，整个系统能够在暴雨肆虐时保持极高负荷的稳定导流，关键在于严密的阶段式构造：五座深达70米、足以容纳航天飞机或自由女神像的混凝土立轴（立坑）直插地下，首先拦截各条河流溢流出的洪水；随后，水流顺着埋设在地下约50米深处、长达6.3公里的巨大地下隧道飞速穿行，最终汇入一个气势磅礴的巨型调压水槽。这座调压水槽由数十根重达数百吨的巨型混凝土柱支撑，巍然矗立在昏暗的地下深处，因此被世人敬畏地昵称为“地下神殿（Underground Temple）”。在自然界的狂暴伟力面前，人类怀揣敬畏之意构建了这处避难屏障。通过深埋地下的工程设计，不仅巨型水泵能够有条不紊地抽调洪流，地面上的土地空间也得以完好保留，继续作为繁华的居民社区与商业用地运转，实现了防灾工程与现代城市空间的完美共存。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 首都圈外郭放水路地下泄洪运转流程 accDescr: 展示暴雨期间洪水从地表中河流经由立坑、导水隧道、调压水槽最终排入江户川的完整流动机制 subgraph Surface["地表受灾水系"] R1["中川 / 仓松川等周边支流"] end subgraph Underground["地下防洪系统"] Silo["5座深约70米的垂直混凝土立轴（立坑）"] Tunnel["深埋地下50米、长6.3公里的储水导流隧道"] Tank["地下神殿（大型调压水槽）"] Pumps["大功率排水泵站"] end subgraph Drainage["外部泄洪受体"] Edo["江户川（主干河道）"] end R1 -->|"地表暴雨溢流"| Silo Silo -->|"垂直引流"| Tunnel Tunnel -->|"地下汇集调压"| Tank Tank -->|"水泵加压抽吸"| Pumps Pumps -->|"安全外排"| Edo ``` - **工程造价与周期**：历经13年建设，耗资约20亿美元。 - **减灾效率**：官方统计使周边区域的房屋水灾损失降低了90%。 - **核心规格**：包含5座深70米的巨型立轴，6.3公里长、埋深50米的导流管道，以及被称作“地下神殿”的调压水槽。 --- ### [04:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=265s) 环太平洋火山带上的生存哲学：1100亿美元的“东京韧性项目” 日本之所以不惜重金在地下构筑防灾工程，根源在于其严酷的地缘环境。日本全境坐落于令人闻之色变的环太平洋“火环带”（Ring of Fire）之上，火山喷发与烈性地震如影随形，伴随而来的往往是难以捉摸的海啸与次生灾害。但长期的危机淬炼也让日本成为全球在防灾减灾领域最为先进的国家，“从中央政府、商业企业到社区组织乃至中小学校，日本社会各个层面的防灾动员能力在全世界都绝无仅有”。这种融入国民骨髓的忧患意识已有逾百年历史。1923年发生的关东大地震夺去了数万人的生命，几乎将整个东京都夷为废墟，那场劫难彻底重塑了日本应对极端灾害的国家战略。如今，东京都会区聚集了超过3700万人口，是全球规模仅次于纽约的超大经济体，其经济总量占据了整个日本GDP的近20%。一旦东京遭遇灾难性瘫痪，不仅日本经济将遭受重创，全球产业链都将产生剧烈震荡。正因如此，东京都于2022年正式启动了雄心勃勃的“东京韧性项目”（Tokyo Resilience Project）。该旗舰计划着眼于未来100年的城市防卫，旨在全方位增强东京抵御特大地震、海啸、火山爆发和极端洪涝的能力。工程措施包括大幅加高沿海防波堤、将关键能源与交通基础设施迁往高地、拓宽加固主要防洪堤坝等。按照规划，到2040年代，日本仅在这一项目上的累计投资额就将达到约1100亿美元。 --- ### [06:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=370s) 从慈善空想到万亿商机：气候适应的经济学逻辑长期以来，气候适应措施常被公众甚至决策层误解为一种“环保主义者的道德善举”——仿佛这是绿党和理想主义者才关心的做戏之作，而真正掌管经济命脉的实权派无需严肃对待。哥伦比亚大学商学院气候经济学家格诺特·瓦格纳（Gernot Wagner，他常常自嘲自己的名字是“去掉了jug的juggernaut / 庞然大物”）直言不讳地打破了这一偏见：“气候问题的根源在于被误导的市场力量未能导向正确方向，问题是经济性的，那么解决方案同样是经济性的。” 在瓦格纳等经济学家看来，“气候适应”的核心逻辑实质上是对城市韧性的重大资本投资。它的终极目标是确保那些处于高风险但经济价值极高的黄金地段、核心资产能够抵御冲击，并在未来的恶劣气候中维持其应有价值。华尔街金融机构与比尔·盖茨等商业领袖已经意识到，适应气候变化不仅能避免数以千亿计的资产损失，其背后更蕴含着庞大的创收契机与商业服务需求。现实中，灾难带来的经济创伤往往带着巨大的隐形成本。当飓风或洪灾呼啸而过，公众看到的是百亿美元计的建筑废墟，但背后围绕灾后清理残骸、工程重建等庞大供应链，其经济成本同样惊人。然而人类的天性往往更习惯于“被动响应”灾害，而非未雨绸缪地提前布局防范。根据国际再保险巨头慕尼黑再保险（Munich Re）的统计，仅2024年一年，全球自然灾害带来的经济损失就高达约3200亿美元，较前一年的2680亿美元大幅攀升；其中约90%的经济损失直接由台风、飓风和洪涝等气象灾害引发。将资本投入气候适应，就像成熟企业为了应对行业寒冬而提前进行业务多元化、加固现金流储备一样，是一场不可或缺的前置风控押注。 - **2024年全球自然灾害损失**：约3200亿美元（慕尼黑再保险统计）。 - **气象灾害损失占比**：约90%与台风、飓风及洪涝直接相关。 - **市场共识演变**：华尔街与商界领袖开始视适应项目为创造长期收益与抵御资产贬值的核心路径。 --- ### [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) 荷兰经验出海与下沉的雅加达：800亿美元的巨型海堤博弈气候适应领域的超级工程向来伴随着极高维度的博弈：它们不仅耗资不菲，甚至会彻底改变区域地理风貌、迫使沿海社区搬迁，并对周边生态带来深远影响。然而，成功的工程范例已经证实了其超越成本的超额回报。地势低洼的荷兰便是最佳明证——研究表明，荷兰沿海一系列堤坝护堤工程所产生的综合效益早已远远超出其建设造价；据测算，到2100年，这些工程为荷兰避免的沿海洪灾损失将高达210亿美元。在数百年战天斗海的过程中，荷兰人将水利防护打磨成了一门成熟的高附加值产业，并大举向全球输出技术。荷兰老牌工程咨询公司 Witteveen+Bos 如今在9个国家设有23家分支机构，曾主导了著名的阿夫鲁瓦特防波堤（Afsluitdijk）现代化改造。而如今，这家荷兰工程巨头最核心的战场之一，正是全球地陷速度最快的超大城市——印度尼西亚首都雅加达。雅加达被业内戏称为“最不适合建造城市的地方”：整座城市坐落于极为松软的冲积平原软土层之上，加之过度抽取地下水，地面一旦承压便疯狂下沉。在 Witteveen+Bos 工作多年的资深工程师维克托·库宁（Victor Coenen）被称为“海堤先生（Mr. Seawall）”，他深知雅加达的唯一生路就是将海水阻隔在城市之外。印尼现任总统普拉博沃·苏比延多（Prabowo Subianto）更是将这项自1995年起便反反复复讨论的工程推向了史无前例的极值：原先预算仅约100亿美元的防汛构想，被升级为一项为期20年、总投资高达800亿美元、绵延约310英里（近500公里）的巨型外海海堤计划。然而修筑海堤绝非只是简单的倒水泥工程。库宁指出，全球范围内即使最简单的海堤，每公里造价也高达约1亿美元。更棘手的是，“巨大的海堤往往会制造巨大的新问题”：硬性阻断的防波堤会封死繁忙港口、切断渔民通往传统渔场的出海通道，给沿海生态与渔业社区带来毁灭性打击。因此，现代海堤必须在防护、民生与经济价值之间寻找精密平衡： | 海堤结构类型 | 核心工程特征 | 优势与收益 | 劣势与挑战 | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **简易高立墙** | 临海直接修筑垂直高耸的水泥墙体 | 造价相对低廉，能有效阻击正面涌浪 | 彻底切断公众亲水路径，摧毁渔民出海生计 | | **宽斜坡式生态堤** | 采用平缓坡度向内陆或海面延展 | 营造出更多可供公众活动与休闲的新滨海空间 | 占地面积大，对陆地空间有限的城区要求极高 | | **离岸防波堤** | 修建在远离陆地的近海海域 | 能最大限度保全原有天然海岸线与沙滩生态 | 施工难度急剧上升，水下打桩与维护成本高昂 | | **结合填海造地工程** | 海堤内侧配合吹填形成人工陆地 | 为爪哇岛极度稀缺的土地资源拓展全新商业与居住空间 | 建设耗时极长，资金消耗最为庞大（如雅加达方案） | 生于斯长于斯的 Witteveen+Bos 本地沿海工程师蒂亚拉·萨尔萨比拉（Tiara Salsabila）指着雅加达北部卡利巴鲁（Kalibaru）的海岸回忆道，她儿时这里根本没有安全可靠的堤坝，海潮随时倒灌侵袭街道。如今通过新型防洪海堤与填海空间的复合设计，当地不仅彻底远离了水患，原先泥泞破败的滩涂更摇身一变成为开阔宜人的居民公共休闲活动区，直观展现了适应性基础设施如何重新定义人水共生的未来。 ### [13:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=809s) 脆弱的海堤与政治雄心：从卢阿尔巴唐到迁都大计在雅加达，并非所有海堤都能提供同等的安全感。站在卢阿尔巴唐（Luar Batang）地区的海堤上，现场记者感受到的是一种极度危险与逼仄的现实：这里的海堤极薄、结构脆弱，站上去连立足的空间都非常狭小，与卡利巴鲁（Kalibaru）那种宽阔坚实、甚至能给居民提供休闲广场的海堤相比，简直有天壤之别。对于印尼这样一个由数万座岛屿组成的独特地理群落而言，港口、道路、桥梁等基础设施是连接国家的生命线，但这类工程往往还承载着另一重政治目的——历任国家领导人都热衷于通过许诺规模宏大、耗资奢靡的巨型工程，来吸引选民的眼球与选票。面对雅加达被海水吞没的危机，政府甚至给出了一个看似云淡风轻却惊世骇俗的方案：“直接迁都，没啥大不了的。”为了彻底摆脱雅加达面临的沿海洪涝与地质危机，印尼加速推进了在东加里曼丹森林中从零建造全新首都——努山塔拉（Nusantara）的计划。然而，宏大的蓝图伴随着沉重的财务包袱。前总统佐科·维多多（Joko Widodo）在其任期尾声就深陷新首都的融资困境，而新任总统普拉博沃·苏比安托（Prabowo Subianto）不仅要接手这一庞大工程，还要同时推进雅加达的新海堤建设。 - **努山塔拉新首都预算**：目前官方估算造价为290亿美元，但业内普遍预计实际耗资将远超这一数字。 - **政治工程的惯性**：在基础设施薄弱的发展中国家，超级项目往往被用作巩固政权与拉拢选民的政治工具。 ### [15:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=925s) 幻灭的“大迦楼罗”与水下的真正危机：地面沉降过去三十年里，雅加达的海堤设计方案改头换面了至少25个版本，其中最著名的是被设计成印尼神话神鸟“迦楼罗”（Garuda）外形的巨型海堤。按照当时的构想，这座形似大鹏展翅的人工岛屿海堤将直接成为印尼的新政治中心，容纳总统府与各部委大楼。然而，这种近乎科幻的奢华设想最终因脱离现实、过于昂贵而被搁置。目前关于海堤的最终形态仍有多种方案在博弈，无人敢断言哪一种会胜出。更为严峻的是，即便印尼克服万难建成了永恒的巨型海堤，雅加达依然无法摆脱沉没的宿命。雅加达的核心危机不仅仅是外部海平面上升，更是由于城市内部长期过度抽取地下水引发的严重“地面沉降”（land subsidence）。传统上，雅加达市民习惯自行钻井抽取地下水，因为这些水源清洁、唾手可得且完全免费。但在自来水管网等清洁替代水源缺失的情况下，无节制的抽水导致城市地基像海绵一样被抽干并塌陷。印尼无法像日本等发达国家那样无上限地为气候适应工程买单，它必须在防洪与刺激经济增长、解决青年高失业率之间艰难平衡。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 雅加达双重水危机成因及恶性循环 accDescr: 展现海平面上升与过度抽取地下水导致的地面沉降如何共同加剧水患 subgraph External["外部威胁：气候与海洋"] A["全球变暖导致海平面上升"] B["风暴潮与极端潮汐侵袭"] end subgraph Internal["内部隐患：资源与地质"] C["缺乏可靠自来水管网覆盖"] --> D["居民与工厂过度开采地下水"] D --> E["土层失水压实引发严重地面沉降"] end subgraph Crisis["双重夹击下的困境"] A --> F["城市高程低于海平面"] B --> F E --> F F --> G["堤坝被反复突破 / 迁都与巨资治水并存"] end ``` ### [17:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1030s) 超越混凝土巨兽：海绵城市与低成本适应路径高昂昂贵的巨型工程并不总是应对洪灾的最佳答案，有时恢复湿地等低成本的自然工法，在减轻洪涝破坏方面的效果甚至优于巨大的混凝土海堤。近年来，“海绵城市”概念在全球兴起——这一发源于中国的城市水管理模式，通过在城市中布局透水绿地、雨水花园和人工湿地，像海绵一样就地蓄存、渗滤雨水，大幅削减地表径流。这种低成本、生态友好的方案不仅成效显著，而且极易在世界各地推广复制。除了海绵城市，应对洪涝的思路还需要更多跳出常规的想象力。在肯尼亚首都内罗毕，一种看似不可思议的生物技术正在为贫民窟的防洪与垃圾治理带来转机——那里嗡嗡作响的黑水虻，正成为气候适应网络中的新主角。 - **自然工法的优势**：湿地修复与植被绿化能够提供缓冲带，成本显著低于硬质工程。 - **海绵城市的机制**：通过“渗、滞、蓄、净、用、排”，从源头削减暴雨峰值径流。 ### [18:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1080s) 内罗毕贫民窟的黑水虻：用昆虫疏通城市的排洪管网内罗毕作为东非的区域枢纽，因大量人口涌入，其现有的500万人口预计将在2050年翻倍。然而，全城超过一半的居民生活在基础设施极度滞后的非正规定居点（贫民窟）中，穆库鲁（Mukuru）便是其中规模最大的贫民窟之一。这里缺乏常规的市政垃圾清运系统，每逢雨季便暴雨成灾，暴洪频发的关键诱因之一，就是贫民窟本就稀缺的排水渠几乎全被生活垃圾塞得严严实实，导致积水无法排泄。当地启动了一项极具创意的黑水虻（Black Soldier Fly）养殖计划。青年工人挨家挨户上门收集生活垃圾，防止其被随意丢弃到街头和水沟里。收集后的垃圾经过分类，可回收物被拿去变卖，而占绝大多数的有机废弃物则送入黑水虻养殖场。工人将有机垃圾粉碎后装箱，并接入黑水虻虫卵。作为自然界的“分解大师”（腐食性动物），黑水虻幼虫能极其迅速地吞食并降解腐烂有机物，彻底消灭垃圾堆积。长成的幼虫可以作为优质蛋白饲料高价出售，也可以留作种虫羽化产卵，开启新一轮循环。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 内罗毕穆库鲁黑水虻垃圾与防洪循环系统 accDescr: 展示从居民垃圾收集到昆虫分解、饲料生产与水渠通畅的闭环系统 subgraph Collection["前端清运与分选"] W1["挨家挨户收集生活垃圾"] --> W2{"垃圾分类"} W2 -->|可回收物| W3["变卖变现"] W2 -->|有机废物| W4["粉碎并装入养殖箱"] end subgraph Bioconversion["黑水虻分解处理"] W4 --> B1["接种黑水虻虫卵"] B1 --> B2["幼虫高速啃食有机废物"] B2 --> B3["消除垃圾堆积\n保持排水沟渠畅通"] end subgraph Output["经济循环收益"] B2 --> O1["富含蛋白质的幼虫"] O1 -->|直接变现| O2["替代昂贵的牲畜蛋白饲料"] O1 -->|成虫羽化| O3["羽化产卵继续下一轮循环"] end ``` - **极低的改造成本**：该黑水虻项目总成本仅约1000万肯尼亚先令（约合7.8万美元）。 - **全球普及潜力**：全球有超过10亿人口生活在类似穆库鲁的基础设施薄弱社区，昆虫循环方案具有极高的移植价值。 - **闭环经济效应**：由于畜禽养殖的传统蛋白质原料价格飙升，黑水虻幼虫成为了性价比极高的替代来源，真正做到了“把公共灾难化为商业解决方案”。 ### [21:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1299s) 适应不是减缓：防洪工程背后的道德风险纵观人类历史，文明的演进始终伴随着驯服水流的尝试——改道江河、引水灌溉，以繁荣经济、开拓疆土。当今世界的挑战，则是如何约束狂暴的水流来守护城市，使人类免遭气候变暖引发的灾难性破坏。然而，一个必须认清的残酷现实是：“适应（Adaptation）绝非减缓（Mitigation）”。无论是千亿美元级别的地下巨型蓄水隧道，还是廉价灵巧的黑水虻养殖，它们只能筑起防御屏障，却丝毫无法阻止全球环境危机的继续恶化。对于牙买加等遭受5级强飓风“梅丽莎”（Hurricane Melissa）重创的脆弱小岛屿国家而言，现有的适应手段更是杯水车薪，全球在气候适应资金上的缺口高达约3000亿美元。不仅如此，片面强调适应还会带来严重的“道德风险”（moral hazard）——正如系上安全带后司机会倾向于开得更快，或者戴上自行车头盔后骑行者会产生虚假的安全感而肆意冲撞一样。一旦人类社会弥漫着“反正我们只要建海堤就能适应气候、因此无需过快削减碳排放”的自欺欺人思维，灾难将无可避免。适应的真正意义，不是给碳排放开脱，而是用迫在眉睫的防洪现实，警醒并倒逼人类以更大的决心去削减温室气体排放。 - **减缓与适应的双重紧迫性**：即便人类从今天起彻底停止排放温室气体，气候系统也已注定大幅变暖，人类必须同时承担适应后果与减排控温的责任。 - **警惕气候道德风险**：修筑防波堤与宏伟工程绝不能成为推迟能源转型与碳减排进程的挡箭牌。 ## Notable quotes > [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1s) 善治水者昌 > [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1s) 在人类演化的大部分时间里，地球的气候一直相对稳定；但现在，这种稳定已经不复存在了。 > [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=131s) 足以让一架航天飞机在其中洗澡 > [04:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=265s) 从中央政府、商业企业到社区组织乃至中小学校，日本社会各个层面的防灾动员能力在全世界都绝无仅有 > [06:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=370s) 气候问题的根源在于被误导的市场力量未能导向正确方向，问题是经济性的，那么解决方案同样是经济性的。 — Gernot Wagner > [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) 最不适合建造城市的地方 > [08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=517s) 巨大的海堤往往会制造巨大的新问题 — Victor Coenen > [13:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=809s) 直接迁都，没啥大不了的。 > [18:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1080s) 把公共灾难化为商业解决方案 > [21:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k&t=1299s) 适应（Adaptation）绝非减缓（Mitigation） ## Mentioned 美索不达米亚, 巴拿马运河, 三峡大坝, 首都圈外郭放水路, 江户川, 宫崎义雄 (Yoshio Miyazaki), 东京韧性项目 (Tokyo Resilience Project), 关东大地震, 格诺特·瓦格纳 (Gernot Wagner), 慕尼黑再保险 (Munich Re), 比尔·盖茨 (Bill Gates), Witteveen+Bos, 阿夫鲁瓦特防波堤 (Afsluitdijk), 维克托·库宁 (Victor Coenen), 普拉博沃·苏比延多 (Prabowo Subianto), 蒂亚拉·萨尔萨比拉 (Tiara Salsabila), 努山塔拉 (Nusantara), 佐科·维多多 (Joko Widodo), 迦楼罗 (Garuda), 海绵城市, 黑水虻 (Black Soldier Fly), 穆库鲁 (Mukuru), 飓风梅丽莎 (Hurricane Melissa) ## Video description Floods now account for almost half of all natural disasters—and the cost in lives and wealth is rising fast. From billion-dollar flood tunnels in Tokyo to giant seawalls in Jakarta and even fly farms in Nairobi, cities are investing in climate adaptation. It’s becoming a trillion-dollar industry, but can these efforts keep pace with accelerating global warming and the more frequent disasters that result? Watch more: https://www.youtube.com/show/VLPLqq4LnWs3olWuFFpsiq0cFkGs7WMb6MtA?sbp=QAE%3D Bloomberg Primer cuts through the complex jargon to reveal the business behind technologies poised to transform global markets. This six-part, planet-spanning series offers a comprehensive look at the "impossible" industries vying to shape our future. #infrastructure #cities #flooding -------- Like this video? Subscribe: http://www.youtube.com/Bloomberg?sub_confirmation=1 Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com for just $1.99 your first month: https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions?in_source=YoutubeOriginals Bloomberg Originals offers bold takes for curious minds on today’s biggest topics. Hosted by experts covering stories you haven’t seen and viewpoints you haven’t heard, you’ll discover cinematic, data-led shows that investigate the intersection of business and culture. Exploring every angle of climate change, technology, finance, sports and beyond, Bloomberg Originals is business as you’ve never seen it. Subscribe for business news, but not as you've known it: exclusive interviews, fascinating profiles, data-driven analysis, and the latest in tech innovation from around the world. Visit our partner channel Bloomberg News for global news and insight in an instant. [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R341JzbpC5k)

Source quotes

[0:01] 善治水者昌 [0:01] 在人类演化的大部分时间里，地球的气候一直相对稳定；但现在，这种稳定已经不复存在了。 [2:11] 足以让一架航天飞机在其中洗澡 [4:25] 从中央政府、商业企业到社区组织乃至中小学校，日本社会各个层面的防灾动员能力在全世界都绝无仅有 [6:10] Gernot Wagner: 气候问题的根源在于被误导的市场力量未能导向正确方向，问题是经济性的，那么解决方案同样是经济性的。 [8:37] 最不适合建造城市的地方 [8:37] Victor Coenen: 巨大的海堤往往会制造巨大的新问题 [13:29] 直接迁都，没啥大不了的。 [18:00] 把公共灾难化为商业解决方案 [21:39] 适应（Adaptation）绝非减缓（Mitigation）

Source quotes

[2:11] space shuttle to take a bath [6:10] juggernaut without the jug [8:37] Mr. Seawall The $100 Billion Builds That Are Keeping Cities Dry [2:11] Yoshio Miyazaki: Underground Temple [4:35] Ring of Fire [17:10] sponge cities [22:12] moral hazard

Original transcript

[0:01] - Those who master water prosper. [0:05] We've seen this all the way back to 8,000 BCE [0:08] when the irrigation system in the Fertile Crescent [0:10] earned at the title "Cradle of Civilization." [0:14] Jump forward a bit in time to the Panama Canal, [0:18] a 40-mile artificial waterway that connects the Atlantic [0:21] and Pacific oceans, making it crucial to global trade [0:25] by cutting long, dangerous sea journeys to just 10 hours [0:29] on the other side of the planet. [0:31] The three gorgeous dam in China [0:33] became the world's biggest single source of green power. [0:37] Today, the potency of water is to be reckoned with [0:39] more so than ever. [0:41] - We used to have a stable climate on this earth [0:44] for most of human evolution. [0:46] Right now, we do not. [0:49] - If you look at a river in a dry period, it's gentle, [0:53] it's nice, but then overnight it becomes like this monster, [0:57] this huge deluge of water destroying houses, killing people. [1:03] How do you control this? How do you tame this monster? [1:07] - Floods account for nearly half of natural disasters, [1:10] and compared to previous decades, their numbers have soared. [1:14] But ideas around the world have emerged [1:16] to disaster-proof cities [1:18] with mega projects from Japan's flood tunnels [1:29] to massive sea walls and... fly farms? [1:34] And with a projected market of $1.3 trillion, [1:38] the business of adaptation is on Wall Street's radar. [1:41] - Adaptation is still worth it. [1:44] It's still eminently possible, [1:46] and plenty of us will be able [1:48] to adapt given we spend the money wisely. [2:11] - Behind and below this unasuming door [2:14] is the world's largest underground flood tunnel system. [2:18] The Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel. [2:23] Tall enough for a space shuttle to take a bath. [2:25] This structure helps protect the Saitama Prefecture just [2:29] outside Tokyo from floods by diverting rainwater underground [2:33] and spitting it back out into the Edo River. [2:37] It took 13 years to construct and cost roughly $2 billion. [2:42] Since completion, it has been estimated [2:43] to reduce flood damage to homes by, hold on, [2:46] let me check my notes here... [2:49] 90%. [2:52] This is Yoshio Miyazaki. [2:56] He supervises ongoing construction [2:58] that keeps the facility maintained so [3:00] that it can accommodate torrents of rainwater. [3:10] During heavy rains, five colossal vertical concrete silos, [3:15] each 70 meters deep, capture overflow [3:18] from surrounding rivers. [3:30] The river is then funneled into a 6.3-kilometer-long [3:34] underground water storage tunnel [3:36] about 50 meters below ground. [3:38] From there, water flows into a [3:40] massive pressure control tank. [3:42] Aptly-nicknamed as the "Underground Temple." [3:46] Makes sense to maintain some reverence when dealing [3:49] with forces in nature, after all. [4:04] - Large pumps are able to push water through these tanks. [4:07] By keeping this underground, [4:09] the space above remains functional for homes and businesses. [4:25] Japan has invested heavily in mega projects [4:29] to protect their citizens from catastrophes something many [4:32] other nations have not done. [4:35] Because sitting atop the foreboding named "Ring of Fire," [4:39] a zone of frequent earthquakes [4:40] and volcanic eruptions along the Pacific Rim can come [4:43] with terrifying and unpredictable consequences. [4:47] - Japan is one of the most advanced, [4:49] if not the most advanced country in the world when it comes [4:53] to preparing for disasters. [4:55] Every sector of society, governments, businesses, [4:59] community groups, even schools, [5:01] prepare for disaster in a way that we don't see elsewhere. [5:05] This is something that's gone on for more than a century, [5:08] really, since a enormous earthquake in 1923 killed tens [5:13] of thousands of people and really devastated Tokyo. [5:19] - Japan's capital is one [5:20] of the most popular cities in the world [5:22] with 37 million people in the metropolitan area. [5:28] - When we think about Tokyo, it really is one [5:30] of the most important city economies globally, [5:34] probably second only to New York in terms of its size, [5:38] and it accounts for about 20% of Japan's GDP [5:42] - 2022 saw the launch of the Tokyo Resilience Project. [5:46] - This is a flagship effort [5:48] and it's aimed at helping Tokyo be more resilient over the [5:51] next hundred years to flooding earthquakes, [5:55] volcanic eruptions, [5:56] and it's on a range of things like raising the height [5:59] of sea walls, moving some infrastructure to higher ground, [6:02] adding more levees, [6:04] and it's an effort that should see spending [6:06] of about $110 billion by the 2040s. [6:10] - One big misconception about adaptation is that [6:14] it's some do-gooder thing [6:16] that the greens would want us to do, [6:19] but the serious people of energy here just shouldn't. [6:27] Gernot, "juggernaut without the jug" Wagner. [6:29] I'm a climate economist at Columbia Business School [6:37] - Climate economists don't just think about economic [6:40] losses from disasters. [6:42] They consider the opportunities as well. [6:44] - We basically know that the problem are misguided. [6:48] market forces are not guiding things in the right direction. [6:52] And while the problems are economic, the solutions are two. [6:56] - One of those solutions [6:58] is what's called "climate adaptation." [7:00] - What is adaptation? It is resilience investments, [7:04] it's making sure that those desirable locations, [7:08] these valuable properties, maintain their value. [7:12] - There's a growing recognition even on Wall Street [7:15] that spending on adaptation isn't just about [7:18] preventing losses. [7:20] This is an activity [7:21] that could potentially also generate revenue. [7:24] - Figures like Bill Gates have publicly urged [7:26] for investment in adaptation projects [7:28] for climate resilience. [7:32] - Disasters are a hidden cost and they're huge. [7:39] We see when a disaster comes in that there's billions [7:42] of dollars in damage, but we don't understand [7:45] the economic activity, [7:46] everyone who's gonna make money from that. [7:49] That includes clearing debris, [7:51] the construction costs of rebuilding. [7:53] And I think human beings are still more in the response [7:58] that is, they're more reactive [7:59] to disasters than they are getting ahead of them. [8:03] - The reinsurer, Munich Re, calculated that in 2024, [8:08] the cost of natural disasters was about $320 billion. [8:12] That was up from the year [8:14] before when it was around $268 billion. [8:18] About 90% of losses are related to weather risks: [8:23] typhoons, hurricanes, flooding. [8:26] - Adaptation is like a business anticipating a market [8:29] downturn by taking an early bet to diversify, reinvest, [8:33] or build cash reserves to weather future disruptions. [8:37] - Mega projects are really high stakes. [8:40] They're often changing a geography, [8:43] potentially displacing communities [8:46] and having an enormous impact on a local environment. [8:50] But there's evidence [8:51] that adaptation projects have helped reduce losses. [8:55] The Netherlands is a really striking example [8:59] - Here, some studies indicate the benefit [9:00] of activities like dike construction along the nation's [9:03] coastline already greatly exceeds the cost, [9:06] and one analysis forecasts avoided losses from coastal [9:09] flooding could be as much as $21 billion by 2100. [9:14] The Dutch are such experts on flood mitigation, [9:17] they've even started exporting it. [9:19] Witteveen+Bos is one Dutch engineering firm [9:22] with 23 offices across nine countries, [9:26] including one in Jakarta, Indonesia, [9:28] the fastest sinking mega city in the world [9:31] where the decisions around adaptation [9:33] and resilience are playing out in real time. [9:36] - This is the old seawall when I was a kid. [9:38] So we had the structure to protect us, [9:40] but the seawater kept coming, coming and coming. [9:44] - Jakarta is the worst possible place to build a city. [9:48] It's built on very, very soft soils, [9:51] and if you build anything on top of those soils, [9:54] the city will start sinking. [9:56] This means we have to keep the sea out of the city and [9:59] therefore, think about seawalls. [10:02] My name is Victor Coenen, sometimes called "Mr. Seawall." [10:08] I would warn against building seawalls everywhere. [10:11] But yeah, this is the reputation I have. [10:16] - One notable Witteveen+Bos mega project is a reconstruction [10:20] of the iconic Afsluitdijk, [10:23] a dam and causeway that protects the [10:25] Netherlands from the North Sea. [10:27] Here in Jakarta, they're bringing their expertise [10:29] to build a new seawall. [10:31] - Indonesia's giant seawall is a, is a project [10:34] that's been talked about since at least 1995. [10:38] But what we've seen from President Prabobo Subianto [10:41] is a massive escalation. [10:43] Previously, this had been considered [10:45] as maybe a $10 billion project. [10:48] Now he's talking about an $80 billion program over 20 years [10:53] to build a sea wall as long as about 310 miles. [10:58] - Victor Coenen has been working [11:00] on Indonesia's flood projects since 2012. [11:03] - A seawall, if you look at examples all over the world, [11:06] will cost you about 100 million US dollar [11:10] for a very simple one per kilometer, [11:13] and that's a lot of money. [11:16] - Seawalls are pretty straightforward. [11:18] They're walls in the sea. [11:20] They absorb and deflect waves, [11:23] but they can also cause erosion and harm people and ecology. [11:27] - Big seawalls create big problems. [11:29] You will close off ports, [11:31] you will close off fishing communities, [11:34] they will lose access to their fishing grounds. [11:37] Also, what does the regional communities want? [11:41] What are the needs? What are the ambitions? [11:44] So if you design a sea wall, it probably starts not [11:48] with the technical side of things. [11:51] - A simple high wall is inexpensive and stops the waves, [11:55] but blocks access to the ocean. [11:57] A wider sloped wall creates more coastline for communities [12:01] to use, build it offshore and you keep coastlines intact. [12:06] Options that include land reclamation allow for other uses, [12:10] which creates more value, [12:12] but to do so takes more time and money. [12:15] - In most of the designs on seawalls, you see some form [12:19] of shape of a land reclamation, [12:21] because land is scarce in Java, [12:23] it's a densely-populated island. [12:25] So if you can add a little bit of land [12:27] behind the sea wall, that's a good idea. [12:29] So many designs include those land reclamations. [12:34] - Building sea walls isn't new in Indonesia. [12:37] It's it's a place where those kind [12:39] of programs have happened previously. [12:42] What's different here with President Subianto's plan [12:45] is its scale and what he would hope is a definitive defense [12:50] to protect that island. [12:56] - So this place we're standing now is a reclaimed land. [13:00] - This is Tiara Salsabila. [13:03] She's a coastal engineer at Witteveen+Bos, and she's [13:06] showing us different seawalls along Jakarta's coast. [13:10] Here in Kalibaru, where she was born and raised [13:12] is a newer sea wall that allows for recreational use. [13:17] - So, when I was a little girl, this dyke [13:20] where we're standing now was not available yet. [13:23] With this huge space, everything changed [13:26] and I could see the change clearly from no space [13:29] to a huge space for people to use for leisure. [13:35] - But as we learned earlier, not all sea walls are the same. [13:41] - So we are currently at Luar Batang area, [13:43] and now I'm standing on the sea wall, [13:46] the very thin sea wall. [13:48] Here it is even not safe and there's no space. [13:51] So yeah, it is very different. [13:53] And then compared to the existing seawall in Kalibaru [13:56] this seawall is not strong at all. [13:59] - When we think about Indonesia [14:00] and its really unique geography, this collection [14:03] of islands, you can understand why infrastructure [14:06] projects are necessary. [14:07] It needs bridges, ports, roads. [14:12] But those projects have often also had another purpose. [14:17] We've seen successive leaders promise lavish projects, [14:20] big spending on major pieces of infrastructure as a way [14:24] of commanding voter attention. [14:27] - Of course, you could also simply [14:29] relocate the entire capitol. [14:32] No big deal. [14:34] - What we've seen more recently is an acceleration [14:37] of efforts to develop a new capitol city. [14:39] Nusantara is intended to provide a new capitol [14:43] for Indonesia that's free from those challenges [14:46] that Jakarta faces. [14:47] - Nusantara would be an entirely new city built from [14:50] scratch meant to avoid the threat [14:52] of coastal flooding altogether. [14:55] Former Indonesian president, Joko Widodo struggled [14:58] to finance this project in the final years of his term. [15:01] An effort that current president, Prabowo Subianto, [15:04] has taken on in addition to the new seawall. [15:08] - The Nusantara project right now, [15:10] the official estimate is for $29 billion. [15:13] The expectation though, is [15:15] that it'll cost a lot more than that. [15:18] - Sounds a lot like another mega project hampered [15:21] by high expenses, doesn't it? [15:25] - There are still many options on the table for a seawall, [15:29] and I wouldn't be able [15:31] to put a bet on which design at this moment [15:34] is a preferred design. [15:36] - Over the past three decades, [15:37] there's been at least 25 iterations of this new seawall like [15:41] this one in the shape of the eagle-like demigod Goruda. [15:45] - The idea was this would be the new capitol of Indonesia [15:50] with the presidential palaces and the ministerial offices. [15:55] - But in the end, this design was considered too ambitious. [16:02] But even if Jakarta manages [16:04] to complete its never-ending sea wall project, [16:06] the island capitol will continue to sink. [16:09] Jakarta's problem isn't just the rising sea, [16:12] it's also the extraction of groundwater. [16:15] - Traditionally, Jakarta's would pump up their own water [16:18] from the underground. [16:20] It was clean, it was available, and it was for free. [16:24] - But over time, [16:25] more and more pumping has meant that the ground [16:27] above sinks a process called "land subsidence" [16:31] and as long as the government doesn't efficiently address [16:34] the issue by providing reliable, fresh water alternatives, [16:37] sinking will continue. [16:39] - Indonesia simply can't spend on climate-proofing projects [16:43] in the same way that we'd see in a developed [16:46] economy like Japan. [16:47] It's trying to boost growth, trying [16:49] to handle things like high youth unemployment. [16:52] It's in a very different position to be able [16:54] to fund climate proofing projects. [16:58] - When it comes to adaptation, governments have [17:00] to take many economic and social factors into consideration, [17:07] and the cost can be hard to swallow. [17:10] - It's not always the case [17:12] that the big expensive infrastructure projects deliver [17:15] the best results. [17:16] There are certainly instances where smaller projects, [17:20] restoring wetlands, for example, [17:22] can help mitigate the impacts [17:24] of floods even better than maybe a huge seawall project. [17:28] - Take "sponge cities," green spaces within urban landscapes [17:32] that absorb water by capturing and storing rainwater [17:36] and reducing runoff. [17:38] They began in China and have popped up across the globe. [17:42] Inexpensive solutions like this are not only effective, [17:45] but easily replicable across cities around the world. [17:49] But affordable flood solutions don't stop there. [17:55] Sometimes what it takes is really thinking outside the box, [18:00] like in Nairobi, Kenya, where there's something new buzzing. [18:08] - That is a pupa. [18:10] Pupa. Little pupa. [18:13] When I first learned about black soldier fly farming, [18:16] I thought it was a godsend for the waste problems [18:20] that urban areas have. [18:23] - Godsend might not be the first thing that comes to mind, [18:26] but stay with me here. [18:30] Nairobi is a global hub. Driven by migration, [18:34] it's expected to double its population of 5 million by 2050. [18:39] And more than half the residents live in informal [18:41] settlements where infrastructure lags far behind [18:45] that rapid growth. [18:47] Mukuru is among the largest [18:49] - Flash floods are a common occurrence in this region. [18:53] A major cause is we do not have proper channels [18:57] for drainage, and often the few drains [19:00] that are available are blocked by garbage. [19:03] - Like many informal settlements in Nairobi, [19:05] Mukuru has no regular waste collection. [19:11] Enter... the flies. [19:16] So the project begins with young people moving from door [19:20] to door to collect household waste so [19:23] that it does not end up on the street. [19:26] They then segregate this waste [19:29] and the recyclables are then sold. [19:33] What remains mostly is the organic waste, [19:36] which they then bring to their black soldier fly unit. [19:41] They shred it and they put it in crates. [19:44] They then inoculate the crates with the eggs [19:47] of the black soldier fly. [19:50] - Larvae break down organic waste rapidly, [19:53] preventing it from piling up in dumps or drains. [19:56] Black soldier flies are great decomposers. [19:59] They're detritivores, meaning they consume dead [20:03] and decaying organic material. [20:09] - So they have two options. [20:11] They can either take the larva [20:14] and sell it as animal feed, [20:17] or keep it a little longer, [20:19] and then it grows into adulthood. [20:21] It becomes a black soldier fly, and then it lays new eggs [20:26] and the cycle begins. [20:30] The total cost of this project [20:32] is around 10 million shillings. [20:34] - That's about 78,000 U.S. dollars. [20:38] Over 1 billion people worldwide live in informal settlements [20:42] similar to Mukuru. [20:44] The results of this project could lead the way [20:47] in raising armies of insects elsewhere. [20:50] - The protein that is used [20:51] for animal feeds has become very expensive. [20:54] So the black soldier fly provides an alternative [20:57] source of protein. [20:59] So through this, we are able to create a circular economy [21:03] that turns a problem into a solution. [21:10] - So sometimes adapting to floods doesn't take [21:14] a giant wall or tunnel or tunnel, [21:18] just... the right bug in the right place. [21:25] The black soldier fly project, [21:26] just like Jakarta's mega seawall, [21:29] won't stop flooding in the region alone, [21:32] but it may help keep communities on firm enough economic [21:35] ground to plan for the next adaptation. [21:39] - Throughout history, humans have tried [21:41] to master water change, river flows, irrigate fields [21:46] to build up economies and develop societies. [21:49] The challenge now is to tame water flows [21:53] to help protect cities, [21:54] to help protect the planet from the [21:56] impacts of climate change. [21:59] - But adaptation is not mitigation. [22:03] While these projects can help protect cities from disasters, [22:07] they don't actually stop the ongoing environmental crisis. [22:12] And sometimes, adaptation is not enough, [22:16] especially for small and vulnerable nations like Jamaica, [22:19] which was devastated by Hurricane Melissa. [22:22] A Category 5 reminder that more needs to be done. [22:26] About $300 billion more. [22:29] - Adaptation is what people are saying we're gonna have [22:32] to do as a result [22:33] of all those greenhouse gases going into the air. [22:37] And to be clear, even if we stop today, we are going [22:40] to warm substantially and live with the consequences. [22:43] So we need to do both mitigation and adaptation. [22:50] - When you wear a seatbelt, you drive faster [22:53] or you're encouraged to bike faster than you should [22:55] by the false security of the bike helmet. [22:57] That's moral hazard. [22:59] Okay, back to climate... [23:00] When we introduce this specter of weight, we can just adapt. [23:05] We can just build seawalls. [23:07] We may not need to cut CO2 emissions [23:10] that much that quickly after all. [23:14] Not true. [23:15] So the trick, of course, is to use the need to adapt [23:21] to then also motivate us to cut emissions more.