Strait Blockade and Ag Squeeze Drive Commodity Turmoil, Analysts Say

分析师：海峡封锁与农业承压引发大宗商品动荡 随着库存缓冲耗尽，霍尔木兹海峡封锁与激增的投入成本恐将持续扰乱全球燃料及粮食供应直至2026年下半年。 本期节目于2026年5月7日在伦敦现场录制，探讨了当前大宗商品价格冲击与供应错配背后的复杂动因。嘉宾 Javier Blas 和 Lorcan Roche Kelly 深入剖析了为何当前的石油冲击不同于2022年、欧洲气候法规如何无意中形成了暂时的化肥缓冲，以及美国牛群去库存为何给肉类加工商造成严重损失。此外，他们还探讨了阿联酋退出OPEC的地缘政治连锁反应、美元走软对贸易的影响，以及GLP-1减肥药与乳清蛋白需求如何意外引发即将到来的硬质陈年奶酪短缺。 欧洲航空燃油供应在6月底前仍保持安全，但夏季出行高峰预计将引发严重供应紧张；鉴于美伊双方均未面临迫使即刻妥协的致命经济危机，霍尔木兹海峡封锁的化解可能旷日持久。 (3:32) 得益于替代管道、战略石油储备释放以及发展中国家的需求破坏，国际原油价格维持在100美元出头而非冲向200美元；与2022年的全面电力危机不同，当前主要体现为沿供应链扩散较慢的石油运输成本冲击。 (8:44) 美国农户盈利空间严重承压，化肥价格飙升的同时玉米价格却滞留在每蒲式耳约4.50美元；与此同时，美国肉牛存栏量跌至75年新低，导致牛肉市场面临严重的结构性供应短缺。 (20:00) 阿联酋宣布退出OPEC标志着该卡特尔出现重大裂痕；阿联酋当前拥有450万桶/日产能并计划进一步扩大至500万桶以上，长期来看将引发全球原油市场份额的激烈争夺。 (23:42)

Commodity analysts Javier Blas and Lorcan Roche Kelly argue that global energy and agricultural markets are operating under deceptive, temporary buffers that mask looming supply deficits. While strategic reserves, regulatory stockpiling, and asymmetric demand destruction have prevented immediate price spikes to nightmare levels, eroding margins and structural shifts foreshadow severe downstream dislocations. Why Oil Prices Resisted Nightmare Projections (8:44) Despite a two-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and an estimated 10-million-barrel global deficit, crude oil has traded in the low $100s rather than the $200 per barrel predicted by some analysts. Javier Blas explains that markets have absorbed the shock through bypass pipelines, aggressive Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns outside China, and roughly 5 million barrels per day of demand destruction. Crucially, that demand destruction has been borne by developing economies such as Pakistan and Bangladesh rather than major European industrial centers, insulating Western markets from panic. Although higher prices have prompted US drillers to expand operations, Blas notes that an increase of a couple hundred thousand barrels per day cannot offset a systemic global shortfall. Blas also assesses that a diplomatic breakthrough remains distant because neither Iran nor the United States is facing unbearable domestic economic pressure. US retail gasoline has risen to $4.50 a gallon—surpassing the traditional $4.00 political flashpoint—yet broad corporate earnings and equity indices remain resilient. Unless crude breaches $150 per barrel and triggers intolerable pain, Blas anticipates that the blockade and reliance on finite inventory reserves will drag on longer than markets expect. OPEC Fragmentation and the UAE's Departure (23:42) The architecture of global oil supply faces additional disruption from the United Arab Emirates exiting OPEC, a development Blas describes as a profound blow to the cartel. While smaller producers such as Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar have departed in the past, the UAE holds an oil production capacity of 4.5 million barrels per day and plans to expand to 5 million or more. OPEC's pricing power has historically relied on members willingly withholding spare capacity, an economic sacrifice largely shouldered by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In the immediate term, Blas expects depleted strategic inventories to absorb extra barrels once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Over a longer horizon, however, the UAE's exit threatens an aggressive race for market share. If major producers choose to maximize individual output rather than collectively manage supply, crude prices will face substantial downward pressure. Agricultural Margin Compression and Delayed Food Shocks (5:40) In agriculture, Lorcan Roche Kelly points out a sharp contrast between current food abundance and a delayed supply crisis. As of mid-2026, global markets are well supplied with wheat and milk, and current retail food inflation is largely driven by transportation and shipping costs rather than raw crop prices. However, depressed crop prices combined with expensive inputs have crushed farm profitability. While high fertilizer costs in 2022 were balanced by corn prices doubling to $8 a bushel, 2026 corn remains depressed near $4.50 while nitrogen prices have surged toward $700 a ton, turning margins negative. As a result, projected US wheat acreage is tracking toward its lowest level since records began in 1919. European farmers temporarily insulated themselves from this cost crunch by purchasing excess fertilizer before the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) tax took effect in January 2026, driving late-2025 winter import volumes 60% to 80% above normal. Roche Kelly warns this cushion will run dry in the second half of 2026. Without subsidies or financial backstops, agricultural producers in developing nations face intense financial strain, threatening broader production shortfalls within 6 to 12 months. Livestock Paradoxes, GLP-1 Shifts, and Dairy Distortions (26:47) Livestock and dairy sectors are experiencing sharp structural distortions. Although a 5% increase in global milk supplies has pushed farmgate milk prices below production costs, the US cattle herd has shrunk to a 75-year low. This shortage has driven live animal costs so high that meatpackers are losing money despite high supermarket prices; Tyson Foods, for instance, recorded a $150 million loss in its beef processing division over a single quarter. At the same time, the widespread adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss medications is transforming dietary patterns toward protein-dense foods and away from heavy restaurant meals. Roche Kelly explains that dairy processors are prioritizing the extraction of high-margin Whey Protein Isolate, leaving behind massive surpluses of cheese. To free up operating capital in a weak market, processing plants are directing this output entirely into fast-turnaround varieties like mozzarella and cream cheese, halting the production of hard cheeses that require 6 to 12 months of aging and creating an imminent shortage of aged cheese. The central unresolved question is how quickly current inventory buffers—including European fertilizer stockpiles, emergency petroleum reserves, and commercial livestock supplies—will reach complete exhaustion. As these temporary cushions deplete toward late 2026, markets face the prospect of physical deficits that pricing mechanisms have so far merely delayed.

彭博社《Odd Lots》伦敦现场讨论指出，当前全球大宗商品价格呈现剧烈分化与反直觉现象：霍尔木兹海峡受阻导致原油与化肥成本高企，但战略储备释放与农产品结构性过剩延缓了终端通胀，未来数月至一年内全球供应链将面临更严重的二次冲击。 原油危机延期爆发与欧佩克内部裂缝 (8:44) 尽管霍尔木兹海峡封锁且国际能源署负责人比罗尔称当前危机比以往历次冲击更为严峻，国际油价仍维持在100美元左右而非飙升至200美元。Javier Blas解释称，多国正依赖替代输油管道并积极动用战略石油储备（中国除外），同时全球原油需求已出现每日约500万桶（约占全球需求5%）的破坏，巴基斯坦和孟加拉国等发展中国家承担了大部分冲击。美国钻井商虽因百元油价增加钻机，但日均仅能增产数十万桶，无法弥补千万桶级别的全球供应缺口。美国汽油价格已攀升至每加仑4.50美元，突破了4.00美元的国内政治心理警戒线。 与此同时，欧佩克正面临阿联酋退出的严重制度冲击。阿联酋目前拥有每日450万桶的产能，并计划增至500万桶以上。Blas指出，沙特与阿联酋此前承担了主要的闲置产能成本，阿联酋离开后一旦瓶颈缓解，各大产油国为争夺市场份额可能展开价格战。此外，委内瑞拉在未来选举中若出现对欧佩克持敌视态度的反对派政府，可能进一步削弱该组织的控制力，尽管其缺乏短期内快速增产所需的投资与资本。 粮食过剩幻象与农业负利差危机 (5:40) 与2022年俄乌冲突初期的供应断裂不同，Lorcan Roche Kelly指出当前全球谷物与牛奶供应极为充裕，呈现“小麦被淹没、牛奶泛滥”的状态，当前的食品通胀主要由燃油与物流成本推升。然而，农资成本与作物价格的倒挂正在埋下严重危机：2022年化肥飙升至每吨400至800美元时，玉米价格同步翻倍至每蒲式耳8美元；而2026年化肥价格再度暴涨，玉米价格却滞留在约4.50美元，种植利差严重收缩甚至转负。 这种负利差已导致美国小麦种植意向面积跌至1919年有记录以来的历史最低点。Kelly警示，6至12个月后基础食品的价格结构将被颠覆，甚至可能出现汉堡面包与肉饼同价的极端现象。在缺乏补贴体系的撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚部分地区，当地农业生产者将面临更致命的财务冲击。 欧洲化肥缓冲期与碳边境调节机制 (16:01) 欧洲在2026年春季播种期暂时避免了化肥断供，这一现象源于欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）带来的政策溢出效应。由于CBAM计划于2026年1月1日对进口尿素征收每吨高达120欧元的碳税，欧洲农户与经销商在2025年11月至12月突击抢购，进口量比往年冬季激增60%至80%，从而锁定了较低成本的库存并支撑了5月和6月的播种。 然而，Roche Kelly强调该缓冲极为脆弱。由于英国脱欧后其同类碳进口机制要到2027年才生效，英国农户并未参与这波囤货。随着欧洲本土库存在2026年下半年耗尽，印度等全球买家正在与欧洲激烈争夺来自阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥及埃及的北非化肥资源。一旦既有库存见底，叠加高额的CBAM关税，下半年的肥料价格将面临极为严峻的上涨压力。 畜牧业悖论与GLP-1重塑乳业结构 (21:42) 肉类与乳制品市场正经历罕见的结构性分化。美国肉牛存栏量跌至75年来的历史最低点导致牛只收购成本极高，尽管终端牛肉零售价格高企，泰森食品等四大肉类加工商的牛肉部门单季仍亏损高达1.50亿美元。乳业方面，全球牛奶供应去年增长5%，部分欧洲国家今年继续增长7%，导致原奶价格跌破生产成本。此外，美元在过去约14个月贬值20%，扰乱了爱尔兰Kerrygold黄油等欧洲高端农产品的稳定贸易节奏。 与此同时，GLP-1减肥药物的普及促使消费者减少摄入快餐并高度关注蛋白质摄取，颠覆了乳品深加工逻辑。加工商争相利用原奶提取高利润的浓缩乳清蛋白（WPI），导致作为副产品的奶酪严重过剩。为快速变现并避免在跌价周期中积压资金，全美新建的数家大型加工厂全力转向马苏里拉和奶油奶酪等快速上市的软质品类，而陈化需要6至12个月的硬质奶酪生产停滞，市场未来将出现陈年高品质奶酪的严重短缺。 本场讨论揭示了当前能源与食品市场看似平稳表象下的结构性脆弱。虽然战略储备动用与投机性库存推迟了危机的全面爆发，但地缘政治僵局若无法在原油价格彻底失控前打破，耗尽的缓冲库存、农田减产与加工业倒挂将在未来一年内演变为广泛的实体经济危机。

## Background 本期内容由彭博社（Bloomberg）于2026年5月18日发布在其《Odd Lots》播客频道，是在英国伦敦威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）录制的主持团队首场海外现场秀。节目简介指出，在霍尔木兹海峡受阻、全球商品价格异动的大背景下，原油、牛肉飙涨与玉米滞涨并存，节目邀请彭博专栏作家 Javier Blas 与《爱尔兰农业杂志》商业主编 Lorcan Roche Kelly 共同剖析能源冲击、欧美农业困局、阿联酋退出欧佩克以及乳品消费转变等议题。 ## TL;DR 节目围绕霍尔木兹海峡封锁两个多月后的全球大宗商品异象展开，指出原油未飙至200美元得益于管道绕运、SPR释放及隐性需求破坏，且当前能源危机以石油成本渗透为主，破坏力暂不及2022年的全面电力危机。与此同时，全球农业正经历严重的价格错配：化肥暴涨与原粮低迷严重倒挂，美牛存栏跌至75年低位，而欧洲春播因前期CBAM囤货暂缓冲击，但真正的断粮与减产危机将在一年后显现。此外，阿联酋退出OPEC加剧了产油国长期价格战隐患，而高蛋白饮食风潮则彻底颠覆乳制品行业，导致软质奶酪泛滥、陈年硬质奶酪濒临断档。 ## Atmosphere & style 作为该播客在海外的首次现场录制，全场洋溢着剧场特有的热烈互动与英伦幽默感，主持人与嘉宾在轻松自嘲与严肃推演之间自如切换。台上不仅有专业犀利的宏观利差测算和地缘博弈推演，也穿插着关于生活电费账单、假期出行焦虑乃至“被逼吃美国工业奶酪”的诙谐调侃。整场对话既充满大宗商品交易员敏锐现实的危机感，又保持着 Odd Lots 一贯接地气、生动且抽丝剥茧的叙事魅力。 ## Bulletin - `10:00` 霍尔木兹海峡封锁已超60天，国际油价未破200美元主要受绕道管网分流、战略石油储备大量释放，以及新兴市场发生约500万桶/日隐性需求破坏的缓冲，但这种消耗性平衡终将面临枯竭临界点。 - `05:40` 农业种植业正面临严重的化肥与粮食价差倒挂危机：化肥价格冲破700美元/吨而玉米价格停滞在4.5美元/蒲式耳，美国小麦播种面积预测已跌破1919年以来历史最低记录，产粮危机将在未来6至12个月集中爆发。 - `16:40` 欧洲化肥短缺表现平稳实为政策套利假象：农户为规避2026年1月生效的CBAM边境碳税（每吨尿素达120欧元），在2025年底激进抢购囤积了60%至80%的化肥，春播后库存耗尽将引爆迟滞的成本风暴。 - `25:00` 阿联酋退出OPEC使其身负重伤：阿联酋拥有450万桶/日产能且扩建目标直指500万桶以上，海峡危机平息后各产油国为争夺市场份额极可能爆发惨烈的长期价格战。 - `30:00` 受GLP-1减肥药推广引发的高蛋白饮食浪潮驱动，乳企大举提取乳清蛋白（WPI）使奶酪沦为副产物，大量资金转向快周转的软质奶酪导致其价格暴跌，而需陈化6至24个月的硬质陈年奶酪面临严重减产与断供危机。 ## Key takeaways - `03:30` 霍尔木兹海峡封锁危机短期难以化解，谈判妥协需要各方承受极限制约，但目前伊朗政权对经济衰退耐受极高，美国汽油涨至4.5美元且大盘稳健，双方均未遭遇足以促成妥协的系统性痛点。 - `05:40` 当前全球原粮总体处于过剩状态，近期食品涨价源自运输与加工链条成本膨胀，而真正的粮食短缺将在一年后显现，届时汉堡的面包胚可能比牛肉饼更加昂贵。 - `10:00` 原油价格未触及200美元暴涨预期的关键在于约5%的全球需求遭到破坏，且这种需求萎缩主要由巴基斯坦、孟加拉国等承载力脆弱的新兴市场承受，暂未对欧美跨国资本市场构成毁灭性打击。 - `11:35` 当前石油危机与2022年全行业能源危机性质截然不同：2022年欧洲电价飙至1000欧元/MWh直接摧毁中小企业底座，而当下电价维持在80欧元/MWh常态区间，油价上涨仅表现为物流与包材成本的渐进渗透。 - `16:40` 欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）引发了前所未有的反向采购潮，欧洲农户在2025年底提前透支了数月需求，暂时遮掩了地缘断供风险，但延期引爆的输入型成本压力终将显现。 - `20:00` 农业利润机制的核心在于产出投入比：2022年化肥翻倍伴随玉米价格从4美元暴涨至8美元使农户保本，而当下玉米滞涨导致化肥对玉米呈现严重负利差，平均净利率不足1%的美国农户下地意愿大减。 - `20:00` 美国活牛存栏量跌至75年历史最低谷，屠宰端高价抢牛导致泰森食品等肉类加工巨头单季度牛肉业务巨亏1.5亿美元，零售端涨价滞后已开始显现消费端需求破坏。 - `25:00` 阿联酋脱离OPEC打破了该组织维系多年的挺价默契，阿联酋拒绝继续承受高达百万桶的闲置产能牺牲，一旦供给瓶颈解除，卡特尔体制将面临空前的市场份额争夺冲击。 - `25:00` 美元汇率过去一年多贬值约20%，显著打击了欧洲向美国出口高溢价农产品的竞争力，汇率波动的负面影响甚至超过了贸易关税政策本身。 - `25:00` GLP-1药物普及彻底倒置了乳品工业的经济模型：传统上被当作猪饲料的乳清因富含分离乳清蛋白（WPI）获得25%-30%的商品溢价，奶酪由此演变为必须加速处理的副产物。 - `30:00` 由于奶酪现货跌价且生产商不愿锁定资金进行长达数月乃至两年的陈化，全美新建超级加工厂集中投产马苏里拉等软质奶酪，传统硬质陈年奶酪即将面临产能断崖式枯竭。 - `32:00` 在高油价刺激下美国页岩油钻井商虽有所反应，但数十万桶/日的实际增量与霍尔木兹海峡受阻产生的上千万桶日均缺口相比微不足道，无法扭转全球原油供需大局。 - `32:00` 全美汽油零售价达到每加仑4美元即被视为直接引发选民强烈通胀焦虑与政治反弹的敏感红线。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `01:05` 伦敦现场秀开场：大宗商品专家的重磅集结 《Odd Lots》播客首次移师美国本土之外，在伦敦历史悠久的威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）举办了首场英国现场录制秀。主持人 Tracy Allaway 与 Joe Weisenthal 在开场中表达了他们来到伦敦的兴奋与忐忑：在异国他乡卖票办秀总让人有些担忧票房和观众反应，但现场反响热烈、座无虚席。面对当下全球范围内令人费解的物价飞涨与供应链震荡，节目特意邀请了两位顶尖的大宗商品专家作为嘉宾：一位是彭博观点（Bloomberg Opinion）专栏作家、《世界受制于此：能源、大宗商品与国际强权的博弈》（The World for Sale）作者 Javier Blas；另一位则是《爱尔兰农业杂志》（Irish Farmers Journal）商业主编、曾是一名真实农场主的 Lorcan Roche Kelly。 本场对话录制于2026年5月7日，当时正值霍尔木兹海峡关闭两个多月、全球商品市场暗流涌动之际。两位专家围绕能源危机、粮食供应链的滞后反应以及全球经济的扭曲现状展开了深入剖析。 ### `03:30` 航空燃油短缺与霍尔木兹海峡困局：夏季出行会受阻吗？ 对话从台下所有欧洲观众最关心的切身问题切入：欧洲的航空燃油（Jet fuel）会不会耗尽？大家计划去西班牙或欧洲其他地方过暑假是否会泡汤？Javier Blas 幽默地调侃道，Tracy 的提问简直就像是他父亲每天在追问的家常问题——“老人家不仅总问飞机能不能飞，还老问现在加汽油划不划算，我都跟他说早上7点半之前别来问我”。 从供给基本面来看，Javier 解释称，欧洲在6月底之前的航空燃油供给相对可控，但进入盛夏后需求激增，市场供给将显著收紧。不过，价格机制正在发挥作用：目前全球每一家炼油厂都在开足马力最大化航空燃油的产能，已有越来越多能源巨头表态当前能够应对夏季需求。然而，需求破坏已经真实发生，Tracy 提到自己的大学同学们甚至已经开始放弃飞行，将夏季度假行程改为搭乘轮渡与火车。 谈及核心症结——霍尔木兹海峡何时能重新开放，Javier 指出谈判往往只在所有相关方都承受难以忍受的痛苦时才会出现妥协，而目前双方的痛感还远远不够： - **伊朗的承受度**：尽管伊朗正承受严重的经济压力（通胀高企、失业攀升），但强硬政权对民众困苦的耐受极高，且短期内毫无面临选举的政治压力。 - **美国的承受度**：美国虽面临大选，汽油价格也已攀升至每加仑4.50美元，但整体经济依然表现坚挺，企业财报尚可，标普500指数仍处于历史高点附近。白宫并未遭遇足以逼迫其向德黑兰低头的灾难性经济危机。 - **僵局的代价**：除非油价飙升至每桶150美元以上，或者伊朗内部经济陷入彻底瘫痪，否则迫使双方妥协的临界点尚未到来，海峡封锁很可能演变为一场旷日持久的拉锯战。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 霍尔木兹海峡危机僵局逻辑 accDescr: 展示伊朗与美国在缺乏极端经济痛感时难以达成妥协的博弈结构 subgraph IranSide["伊朗现状与考量"] A["经济困境加剧<br/>高通胀与高失业"] B["政权高压耐受力强<br/>无迫在眉睫的选举压力"] end subgraph USSide["美国现状与考量"] C["汽油价格升至4.50美元"] D["经济与股市整体稳健<br/>尚未触发系统性危机"] end subgraph Stalemate["博弈结果"] E["双方均未遭遇极致痛点<br/>（如油价飙升至150美元以上）"] F["缺乏妥协意愿<br/>海峡重开进程持续延后"] end A --> B C --> D B --> E D --> E E --> F ``` ### `05:40` 全球粮食过剩与滞后危机：一年后的汉堡面包可能比牛肉还贵 许多人将当前的动荡与2022年俄乌冲突初期的粮食危机相提并论，但 Lorcan Roche Kelly 指出，目前的实际情况完全相反。2025年到2026年初，全球粮食供给不仅没有枯竭，反而在总体上处于过剩状态——用他的话说，“世界正被淹没在小麦之中，在牛奶里游泳”（"The world is drowning in wheat. It is swimming in milk."）。全球唯一真正紧缺且价格飞涨的是牛肉（美国及全球牛肉价格均在高位），但禽肉等替代蛋白质极其充足。 目前的超市货架涨价，并非源于原粮短缺，而是受制于从农田到加工厂再到超市的物流与运输成本暴涨。真正的危机潜伏在未来的6到12个月之后： - **低价重创播种意愿**：由于当前小麦和原奶收购价极其低迷，而化肥等投入成本持续高企，农户面临极其严峻的生产亏损。 - **百年罕见的弃耕现象**：美国当前的小麦种植面积预测值已经跌破了自1919年有记录以来的历史最低水平。 - **未来价格大逆转**：Lorcan 发出警示，到明年此时，当农户弃耕和缩减牲畜群的滞后效应集中显现时，“汉堡里的面包胚可能会变得跟里面的牛肉饼一样昂贵”（"the price of the bun is going to cost as much as the price of the meat"）。 - **全球南方农户的脆弱性**：欧美农户还可以寄希望于政府的农业补贴或紧急纾困，但撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚等地区的农户缺乏财政安全网，在未来一年将面临毁灭性的生计冲击。 当 Tracy 问及为什么大多数农民总在抱怨生存维艰，而 Lorcan 看起来却心情不错时，Lorcan 笑着打趣：“那是因为我已经不做农场主了，我已经把农场交给了别人，农业实在太艰难了。” ### `07:15` 油价为何没有飙至200美元？破除原油执念与更广泛的能源现实 随着中东战事延续超过两个月，市场最初普遍预测霍尔木兹海峡遭封锁后油价会迅速冲上每桶200美元大关，但现实中原油仅徘徊在100美元左右。国际能源署（IEA）署长法提赫·比罗尔（Fatih Birol）曾公开评价“这场危机比1973年、1979年和2022年的危机加在一起还要严重”，这与实际盘面呈现出巨大落差。 对此，Javier Blas 剖析了大众对“原油”的过度执念： - **大宗商品分析师的职业反思**：Javier 自嘲承认自己对原油和橄榄油有着执念，但提醒大家能源的世界远不止原油这一种商品。 - **能源结构的电气化变迁**：现代工业与家庭所消耗的大部分能源实际上来自电力。放眼目前的欧洲市场，电力均价甚至并未显著高于2025年的平均水平，天然气和煤炭市场的表现也远比想象中平稳。 - **未达极端预期的认知差**：尽管市场处于实质性地缘政治供给中断之中，但现代能源系统的复杂性和电力结构的缓冲作用，使得原油价格并未直接上演200美元的极端灾难剧情，这与一年前许多悲观模型的预测大相径庭。 ### `10:00` 霍尔木兹海峡封锁与原油未破200美元之谜 在霍尔木兹海峡遭到持续超过60天的封锁、导弹袭击与战火不断的极端背景下，市场原本普遍预期原油价格将轻易突破每桶200美元的大关。然而，现实中的油价并未失控飙升至200多美元。哈维尔·布拉斯（Javier Blas）解释道，这背后有几个关键缓冲机制发挥了作用：首先，绕道原油管道（bypass pipelines）承担了巨大的分流负荷；其次，除中国以外的全球主要经济体都在以极快的速度动用战略石油储备（SPR）并快速消耗商业库存。 更为关键却常被低估的因素是“需求破坏”（demand destruction）。全球原油市场在没有引发大规模普遍性经济剧痛的情况下，已经悄然削减了约500万桶/日的消费量，占全球总需求的5%左右。哈维尔直言，从全球金融市场和宏观经济的角度来看，一个残酷的现实是“需求破坏发生在哪里至关重要”——当需求萎缩发生在巴基斯坦或孟加拉国等新兴市场时，其对欧美股市和跨国经济体系的冲击，与2022年发生在德国等欧洲工业核心区的情况截然不同。不过，通过消耗库存和应急储备建立的供给流动终究不可持续，这种人为拉长的缓冲期最终必将迎来枯竭的一天。 - 霍尔木兹海峡封锁超过60天，油价尚未达到预期的200美元以上。 - 全球通过绕道管网和战略石油储备（SPR）的大规模释放弥补供给缺口。 - 隐性需求破坏达到约500万桶/日（约占全球需求5%），且主要集中在对高油价承受力脆弱的发展中国家。 --- ### `11:35` 2022年的电价恶梦与当下的石油冲击对比 当谈到欧洲是否再次沦为能源危机的输家时，哈维尔强调必须厘清“石油冲击”与“全行业能源/电力冲击”的本质区别。人们往往淡忘了2022年欧洲电力危机的惨烈程度：危机爆发前，作为欧洲基准的德国批发电力批发合约价格通常在每兆瓦时50至75欧元之间，但在2022年危机顶峰时暴涨至不可思议的每兆瓦时1000欧元；相比之下，当下的电价约为每兆瓦时80欧元，已基本回落至常态区间。 哈维尔分享了2022年最具象征意义的画面：并非变电铁塔或核反应堆，而是中小企业主发来的电费账单。巴黎郊区一家街角面包店的店主曾向他展示账单，平日每月仅700至800欧元的电费猛增至约7000欧元。电力是现代服务业与整体经济运转的基石，2022年那种电价暴涨对中小企业而言无异于破产风暴，迫使企业大幅提价转嫁成本，从而引爆了恶性通胀。当前的危机虽然体现在石油上——高油价会推高公路货运成本与超市食品包装（如塑料托盘）价格，进而全面渗透到物价中，但电力市场的平稳使当前的破坏力无法与2022年相提并论。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 2022年电力危机与当前石油冲击机制对比 accDescr: 对比2022年欧洲电力暴涨对企业生存的摧毁与当前油价渗透对物价传导的差异 subgraph PowerShock["2022年电力危机（全面破产型）"] P1["批发批发电价自 50-75 欧飙升至 1000 欧/MWh"] --> P2["中小企业电费暴增十倍（如面包店 700 欧变 7000 欧）"] P2 --> P3["构成直接破产事件，引发恶性恶性通胀"] end subgraph OilShock["当前石油危机（成本渗透型）"] O1["霍尔木兹海峡受阻与原油库存消耗"] --> O2["运输成本与化工塑料包材价格上涨"] O2 --> O3["物价缓慢渗透，但电力底座维持在 80 欧/MWh 正常区间"] end ``` --- ### `16:40` CBAM囤货潮与化肥危机的“延期引爆” 针对欧洲化肥市场目前表现出的意外平稳，洛肯·罗什·凯利（Lorcan Roche Kelly）揭示了一段颇具戏剧性的政策套利内幕。欧洲本土化肥生产极度依赖能源，因2022年天然气暴涨及必须购买昂贵的碳排放配额，生产成本居高不下，无法与海外生产商竞争。为此，欧盟推出了碳边境调节机制（CBAM），并原定于2026年1月1日正式生效，对进口尿素（氮肥核心原料）征收高达每吨120欧元的边境碳税。 面对这笔即将落地的重税，全欧洲的农户与农资贸易商做出了极其理性的反应：在传统上农事休止、极少采购化肥的2025年11月和12月，欧洲掀起了一场前所未有的“抢购囤积潮”，采购量激增了60%至80%。正是由于农场和经销商仓库里堆满了能够支撑到2026年5月乃至6月春播季节的现货库存，欧洲才在危机初期免受断供冲击。 然而，这种繁荣只是将危机推迟而非化解： - **库存耗尽与碳税补跌**：一旦春播后现货库存见底，新采购的进口化肥将全额承担CBAM税负，直接推高农户成本。 - **全球供应链挤占**：传统依赖澳大利亚等其他供给源的国家（如印度）正大举转向北非（阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥和埃及）锁定义务长约，而这正是欧洲以往的核心进口腹地，导致全球离岸价格进一步被推升。 - **危机延期而非消除**：英国因脱欧未同步实施CBAM（推迟至2027年1月），未能享受这轮囤货红利；欧洲大陆虽然暂避风头，但随着廉价化肥消耗完毕，“一场被推迟的化肥价格风暴正在赶来”。 ### `20:00` 化肥与玉米的价差倒挂，以及美国养牛业的75年低谷 Lorcan Roche Kelly 解释了当前化肥市场的残酷现实。在 2026 年之前，全球氮肥供应就已经略显偏紧，价格开始小幅攀升。然而，霍尔木兹海峡关闭等地缘事件直接抽走了全球约 30% 的供应，市场瞬间演变成对有限存量的争抢。农业本质上是一个极薄利润的行业，美国农户每年的净利润率普遍不到 1%。当化肥等关键投入品价格哪怕上涨 10%，农户都会认真权衡“今年到底还值不值得下地播种”。农户们总在抱怨，但眼下他们确实有充分的理由抓狂——尽管他们最希望化肥“白送”，但现实中每个人都有严密的成本效益测算：农户或许可以承受 450 美元/吨的氮肥，但面对 700 美元/吨的高价，账根本算不过来。 Javier Blas 紧接着指出，金融世界的核心在于利差（Spread），农业也是如此，关键在于玉米价格与化肥价格的比例关系。2022 年的能源危机与当下有着本质不同：2022 年化肥价格虽然从每吨 400 美元翻倍暴涨至 800 美元，但当时玉米价格也从每蒲式耳 4 美元一路飙升至 8 美元。农户虽然成本端遭受重击，却能从丰厚的农产品产出端获得补偿。反观当下，玉米价格几乎纹丝不动，停留在每蒲式耳 4.50 美元左右，化肥价格却再度冲上云霄。化肥与玉米之间的价差对农户而言变成了严重的负收益，这正是眼下危机让美国农户感到异常痛苦的根源。 与此同时，其他农牧品种也陷入困境。全球牛奶供应量在过去一年增长了 5%，部分欧洲国家今年以来的增幅更是高达 7%，导致原奶价格已经跌破了生产成本。至于牛肉市场，虽然终端价格创下天价，农户却无牛可卖——美国的活牛存栏量已经跌至 75 年来的历史最低点。面对公众对肉类加工企业暴利的质疑，Lorcan 为四大肉企（Big Four）辩护，指出 Tyson（泰森食品）在最近一季财报中，仅牛肉加工业务在短短三个月内就亏损了 1.5 亿美元。肉企同样处于水深火热之中，因为屠宰存栏极度紧缺，采购竞价惨烈，而零售端的提价幅度依然不足以弥补屠宰成本，市场甚至已经开始出现需求破坏（Demand destruction）。此外，牛肉供应链极为复杂，一头肉牛屠宰后会被分售给多达 25 个不同的客户；美国同时是全球最大的牛肉进口国和出口国之一，美国消费者偏好肉糜（Ground beef），而全球其他市场更青睐牛排等部位肉，割裂的需求和低迷的存栏共同构成了当前的牛肉乱局。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 农牧业成本与价格传导困境 accDescr: 对比2022与当前玉米化肥价差，以及活牛存栏不足对上下游的影响 subgraph CropSpread["种植业：化肥与玉米利差逆转"] F22["2022年：化肥 $800/吨 (涨)"] --> C22["玉米 $8/蒲式耳 (涨) => 农户保本盈利"] F26["当前：化肥 $700+/吨 (暴涨)"] --> C26["玉米 $4.5/蒲式耳 (滞涨) => 利润倒挂"] end subgraph CattleCrisis["畜牧业：75年最低肉牛存栏"] HerdLow["美牛存栏量创75年新低"] --> Squeeze["屠宰场高价抢牛"] Squeeze --> Loss["泰森等肉企单季亏损1.5亿美元"] Squeeze --> Retail["零售端涨价滞后并引发需求破坏"] end ``` - 美国农场平均年度净利润率：不足 1% - 氮肥承受极限与现状：农户可承担约 450 美元/吨，但无法承受 700 美元/吨的现价 - 2022 年对比：化肥 400 美元涨至 800 美元/吨，玉米从 4 美元涨至 8 美元/蒲式耳 - 当前行情：玉米价格仅停留在 4.50 美元/蒲式耳 - 乳业过剩：去年全球牛奶供应量上升 5%，欧洲部分国家今年激增 7%，奶价已击穿生产成本 - 巨头亏损：泰森食品单季度牛肉加工业务亏损达 1.5 亿美元 --- ### `25:00` 阿联酋退出欧佩克、地缘裂痕与乳清蛋白掀起的消费革命 随后，讨论转向了能源领域的重磅炸弹：阿联酋（UAE）退出 OPEC（石油输出国组织）。主持人指出，节目长期以来将沙特与阿联酋的关系戏称为“亦敌亦友（Frenemies）”，但现在友谊的成分正在迅速剥离。Javier Blas 强调，金融分析中最危险的四字警句是“这次不同（This time is different）”，而在石油市场分析中，最危险的三字断言则是“欧佩克完了（OPEC is dead）”。然而，即使 OPEC 尚未消亡，当下也已“血流不止，身负重伤”。虽然历史上印度尼西亚、卡塔尔、厄瓜多尔以及安哥拉都曾退出该组织，但阿联酋的退出有着根本性的不同： 1. **雄心与产能**：阿联酋目前拥有约 450 万桶/日的原油产能，并明确计划扩建至 500 万桶/日甚至更高； 2. **资源禀赋与资金**：阿联酋拥有丰富的地质储量，并且拥有充裕的资金来建造地面设施落实增产； 3. **分摊牺牲的不公**：OPEC 的凝聚力完全取决于成员国为了挺价而自愿闲置产能、承受财务痛苦的意愿。长期以来承担绝大部分减产负担的正是沙特与阿联酋，按闲置产能占总产能的比例计算，阿联酋承受的痛苦甚至超过了沙特。 Javier 分析认为，一旦霍尔木兹海峡恢复通行，短期内由于全球需要回补战略石油储备，市场尚能消化这些多余产能；但随之而来的必然是一场争夺市场份额的价格战，届时油价必将承受下行压力。此外，地缘政局的变化（如委内瑞拉可能举行的大选及反对派对 OPEC 的长期敌视）可能诱发更多国家脱离该组织。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 阿联酋退出OPEC对原油市场的影响路径 accDescr: 从阿联酋产能扩张到市场份额争夺的价格冲击路径 subgraph Capacity["阿联酋动能"] A["现有产能 450万桶/日"] --> B["目标产能 500万桶/日+"] C["雄厚资本 + 地质储量充足"] --> B end subgraph MarketDynamics["市场连锁反应"] B --> D["拒绝继续承担闲置产能痛苦"] D --> E["海峡重开后短期补库"] E --> F["长期诱发市场份额恶性争夺"] F --> G["油价面临下行崩盘风险"] end ``` 话题随后转向欧美贸易政策与消费趋势。Lorcan 直言，相比于美国的贸易政策，美国的外汇政策对欧洲农产品出口造成的冲击更大——过去一年多里美元贬值了 20%，导致欧洲对美出口的高端农产品（如爱尔兰 Kerrygold 黄油和法国葡萄酒）承压加剧。不过，真正颠覆农业产业格局的力量来自消费端：GLP-1 类减肥药物的普及使得消费者大幅削减了快餐（QSR）和披萨等高热量碳水的摄入，转而疯狂追求高蛋白质食物。这种饮食风向的转变彻底倒置了乳品加工业长达数十年的副产品逻辑：30 年前，工厂生产大量奶酪，分离出的乳清（Whey）因无人问津而被当作猪饲料；如今，由于市场上对分离乳清蛋白（WPI）的狂热需求，企业为了提取乳清而不得不大量制作奶酪，奶酪反而沦为了不知该如何处理的“副产品”。 - OPEC 历史退离国：印度尼西亚、卡塔尔、厄瓜多尔、安哥拉，以及当前的阿联酋 - 阿联酋产能目标：从现有的 450 万桶/日稳步扩大到 500 万桶/日及以上 - 汇率变动影响：美元较一年多前贬值约 20%，对欧洲高溢价农产品输美造成持续冲击 - 消费习惯剧变：受 GLP-1 药物推动，快餐与披萨消费缩减，高蛋白需求激增 - 乳制品价值倒置：分离乳清蛋白（WPI）成为高价值核心利润来源，奶酪由主产品演变为过剩的副产物 ### `30:00` 乳清热潮下的奶酪危机：硬质陈年奶酪即将绝迹？ 食品工业正在掀起一股疯狂的蛋白质热潮。食品生产商迫切希望在各类食品中额外添加 20 克、30 克甚至 40 克的乳清蛋白（Whey），因为只要贴上高蛋白标签，产品就能以高出 25% 到 30% 的溢价出售。这一巨大的商业驱动力直接颠覆了乳制品供应链。在美国，目前至少有四到五座规模极其庞大的奶酪加工厂正在拔地而起，这意味着美国消费者很快将“淹没在奶酪的海洋中”。然而，这种繁荣伴随着一个让欧洲美食家崩溃的代价——这绝非品质上乘的传统奶酪，台下 Javier Blas 听到要吃美国奶酪时露出的痛苦表情引来全场哄堂大笑。 乳制品加工的商业逻辑正在迅速转向周转速度更快的软质奶酪。为了以最快速度提取高价值的乳清并将剩余牛奶变现，生产商正在大举转产软质奶酪（如马苏里拉奶酪、奶油奶酪等），因为软质奶酪的生产与周转周期极短。由于产量井喷，通用奶酪的价格已经崩盘，且预计还会进一步下跌。但在硬质奶酪（Hard Cheese）领域却在上演一场完全相反的灾难：在奶酪整体价格暴跌的熊市背景下，没有大型生产商愿意将巨额资本锁定在需要陈化 6 个月、12 个月甚至两年的陈年奶酪库存中。这导致高品质的陈年硬质奶酪产能断崖式下滑。如果消费者想要享用高品质的 1 年或 2 年陈年奶酪，唯一的建议就是“现在立刻去买”，因为在接下来的两年里，市场上将充斥着工业马苏里拉、奶油奶酪以及美国喷雾罐装人造奶酪，陈年硬质奶酪将面临严重短缺。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 乳制品产业链向软质奶酪转型的逻辑 accDescr: 解释高蛋白乳清需求激增如何导致软质奶酪过剩与硬质陈年奶酪短缺 subgraph 需求端驱动 A["高蛋白食品需求激增<br/>（溢价25%-30%）"] --> B["乳清提取需求暴涨"] end subgraph 供给端反应 B --> C["新建大型奶酪加工厂"] C --> D["加速牛奶周转：变现乳清与副产物"] end subgraph 市场分化结果 D --> E["软质奶酪产量过剩<br/>（马苏里拉/奶油奶酪）<br/>价格暴跌"] D --> F["资本不愿锁定6-12个月以上"] F --> G["硬质陈年奶酪停产/短缺<br/>未来两年面临断货"] end ``` - **食品溢价动力**：产品每添加 20 至 40 克蛋白质/乳清，终端售价可提高 25% 到 30%。 - **美国加工产能**：目前全美正有 4 至 5 座超级规模的奶酪加工厂在建。 - **陈年奶酪预警**：因资金占用成本高且奶酪现货跌价，规模化陈年硬质奶酪供给即将枯竭，建议尽早囤货。 --- ### `32:00` 页岩油增产预期与美国油价的政治敏感线 话题随后重回能源领域。外界一直关注特朗普政府对国内能源供给的预期——即随着国际油价高企，美国本土钻井商（Drillers）将迅速响应增产，从而使美国再次“淹没在石油中”。Javier Blas 对此给出了理性的供需测算：钻井商确实会有所反应，且 2026 年美国的原油总产量确实会高于半年前或一年前业界的悲观预期，尤其是当油价站上 100 美元大关时，此前在 80 至 85 美元区间谨慎增产的头部石油公司势必会扩大开采规模。 然而，这种增产在宏观供给缺口面前只是杯水车薪。Javier 直言，美国页岩油带来的额外增量充其量只有每天几十万桶（a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day），而由于霍尔木兹海峡封锁等极端事件导致的市场缺口可能高达 1000 万桶/日。增产几十万桶根本“无法改变大局”（not really gonna move the needle）。现场随后讨论起美国国内汽油零售价的政治阈值：究竟多高的油价会直接引发统治危机？作为长年生活在曼哈顿的“脱离普通生活”的纽约客，Joe Weisenthal 自嘲平时并不开车，但普遍的共识是，一旦汽油零售价格突破每加仑 4 美元，就会在美国选民中引发实质性的政治反弹与通胀焦虑。 - **页岩油实际增量**：100 美元高油价下，美国钻井商预计日增产数十万桶。 - **市场缺口悬殊**：相较于霍尔木兹危机造成的千万桶级别供应黑洞，页岩油响应难以平抑全球缺口。 - **政治红线价格**：全美汽油零售价达到每加仑 4 美元即被视为触发重大政治麻烦的敏感分水岭。 --- ### `33:45` 伦敦现场录制尾声与致谢闭幕 随着现场讨论进入尾声，主持人 Tracy Allaway 与 Joe Weisenthal 宣布本期在伦敦威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）录制的 Odd Lots 首次海外现场秀圆满落幕，并对特邀嘉宾 Javier Blas 与 Lorcan Roche Kelly 的深度分享表示由衷感谢。 主持人在片尾向听众介绍了 Odd Lots 团队的制作阵容（Carmen Rodriguez、Dashiell Bennett、Kale Brooks、Kevin Lozano 等），并引导听众加入 Discord 社区探讨能源与农产品市场，或通过彭博订阅渠道获取无广告音频节目。 - **录制背景**：2026 年 5 月 7 日于英国伦敦历史悠久的威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）现场录制。 - **播客互动**：官方提供 Bloomberg 每日简报、24 小时社群 Discord 讨论以及彭博专享无广告收听支持。 ## Notable quotes > `03:30` 老人家不仅总问飞机能不能飞，还老问现在加汽油划不划算，我都跟他说早上7点半之前别来问我 — Javier Blas > `05:40` The world is drowning in wheat. It is swimming in milk. — Lorcan Roche Kelly > `05:40` the price of the bun is going to cost as much as the price of the meat — Lorcan Roche Kelly > `05:40` 那是因为我已经不做农场主了，我已经把农场交给了别人，农业实在太艰难了。 — Lorcan Roche Kelly > `07:15` 这场危机比1973年、1979年和2022年的危机加在一起还要严重 — Fatih Birol > `10:00` 需求破坏发生在哪里至关重要 — Javier Blas > `16:40` 一场被推迟的化肥价格风暴正在赶来 — Lorcan Roche Kelly > `25:00` 这次不同（This time is different） — Javier Blas > `25:00` 欧佩克完了（OPEC is dead） — Javier Blas > `25:00` 血流不止，身负重伤 — Javier Blas > `30:00` 现在立刻去买 — Lorcan Roche Kelly > `32:00` a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day — Javier Blas > `32:00` not really gonna move the needle — Javier Blas ## Mentioned Odd Lots, Bloomberg, Tracy Allaway, Joe Weisenthal, Javier Blas, Lorcan Roche Kelly, Fatih Birol, Wilton's Music Hall, Strait of Hormuz (霍尔木兹海峡), OPEC (石油输出国组织), IEA (国际能源署), CBAM (欧盟碳边境调节机制), Tyson Foods (泰森食品), Kerrygold, GLP-1, The World for Sale, Carmen Rodriguez, Dashiell Bennett, Kale Brooks, Kevin Lozano ## Video description <p data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="paragraph" data-prosemirror-node-block="true" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Whether it's the price of a barrel of Brent crude or a pound of beef, it's clear prices are skyrocketing for all kinds of goods and commodities. Price shocks and shortages are, if anything, the way consumers understand the economy right now &mdash; at the grocery store or at the gas pump. Certainly, current (and future) shocks can be explained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But the environment is weirder than just across the board price increases: The price of corn has barely moved, for instance, while fertilizer just keeps going up. We have not one but two perfect guests to talk to us today, our favorite commodity specialists: Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas and Lorcan Roche Kelly, the business editor at Irish Farmers Journal. Today's episode &mdash; which was recorded on stage at Wilton's Music Hall in London as part of our first ever show outside the US &mdash; covers how the world's farmers feel about US trade policy, why today's energy shock is so different from 2022's, the true impact of the UAE leaving OPEC, and why it's going to get harder to buy hard cheese in the near future.</p> <p data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="paragraph" data-prosemirror-node-block="true">Read more:<br data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="hardBreak" data-prosemirror-node-inline="true"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/treasuries-lead-global-bond-yields-higher-on-inflation-angst?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook Investors</a><br data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="hardBreak" data-prosemirror-node-inline="true"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/china-allows-exports-for-425-us-beef-plants-trade-group-says?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">China Allows Exports for 425 US Beef Plants, Trade Group Says</a></p> <p data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="paragraph" data-prosemirror-node-block="true">Only <a href="http://Bloomberg.com" data-inline-card="" data-card-data="">http://Bloomberg.com</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a></p> <p data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="paragraph" data-prosemirror-node-block="true"><a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a><br data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="hardBreak" data-prosemirror-node-inline="true"><strong data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="strong">Join the conversation:</strong> <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">discord.gg/oddlots</a></p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p> [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/2cddec97-5995-4812-abea-b44b016dc69f/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

[3:30] Javier Blas: 老人家不仅总问飞机能不能飞，还老问现在加汽油划不划算，我都跟他说早上7点半之前别来问我 [5:40] Lorcan Roche Kelly: The world is drowning in wheat. It is swimming in milk. [5:40] Lorcan Roche Kelly: the price of the bun is going to cost as much as the price of the meat [5:40] Lorcan Roche Kelly: 那是因为我已经不做农场主了，我已经把农场交给了别人，农业实在太艰难了。 [7:15] Fatih Birol: 这场危机比1973年、1979年和2022年的危机加在一起还要严重 [10:00] Javier Blas: 需求破坏发生在哪里至关重要 [16:40] Lorcan Roche Kelly: 一场被推迟的化肥价格风暴正在赶来 [25:00] Javier Blas: 这次不同（This time is different） [25:00] Javier Blas: 欧佩克完了（OPEC is dead） [25:00] Javier Blas: 血流不止，身负重伤 [30:00] Lorcan Roche Kelly: 现在立刻去买 [32:00] Javier Blas: a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day [32:00] Javier Blas: not really gonna move the needle

[5:40] Lorcan Roche Kelly: The world is drowning in wheat. It is swimming in milk. We have so much food out there. The only thing we're short of is beef.

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Let's create smarter business. IBM. Wise uses the exchange rate you'd usually find on Google with no unwelcome surprises. Plus, most transfers happen in under 20 seconds, which means your money arrives in less time than you've been listening to me. It's simple and free to sign up when you download the Wise app. Be smart. Get wise. T's and C's apply. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. This is a very special live recording of the podcast. We were over in London for our first ever UK live show. I love going to London. It was a little anxious, putting on a live show, selling tickets and stuff in London. and you never really know who's going to show up in another city. But it was a great time. We had a great turnout. We had some great conversations. It was great to meet some of the fans and listeners there. I really loved it. And yeah, I really enjoyed the live episodes that we recorded. Absolutely. And we had some great guests as well. And what you about to listen to two of the perfect guests really I think for this topic Obviously commodities is still making all the headlines really So we decided to get two of our favorite commodity specialists. Both of them have been on the podcast before. We spoke with Javier Blas. He is, of course, our colleague over here at Bloomberg. He's a Bloomberg opinion columnist, author of The World for Sale. And we also spoke with one of our former colleagues, Lorcan Roche Kelly, who not only is a business editor at the Irish Farmers Journal, but actually an erstwhile Irish farmer himself. That's right. Formerly one of our colleagues. Just to note, of course, because things change all the time. This was recorded on May 7th at Wilton's Music Hall in London. Take a listen. All right. So, Javier, the big question that we have to get out of the way, I'm sure it's on the minds of everyone in the room here, is is Europe going to run out of jet fuel and will there be like should people take that into account when planning their summer holidays to spain or wherever else i think that you are making a great impersonation of my father who is asking that question and also when it's okay to refuel the car i'm kind of halfway it's okay now for gasoline and so on as of that 7 30 in the morning please ah i mean it all depends whether the strade of hormuz reopens or not and when because it has to be a question of when We are okay with jet fuel for the next few weeks until certainly the end of June Then it gets significantly tighter because demand goes up quite a lot during the summer, but the market is working. Every refinery in the planet is maximizing jet fuel production right now, and we are beginning to see that working. and more companies coming on the record saying that they are okay for the summer. I mean, I will say that some of my friends from university, and Joe makes fun of me whenever I say uni friends, but my friends from uni, we're talking about changing their summer holidays to ferries and trains. So there's real-life demand destruction happening already. You mentioned all of this depends on when the strait actually reopens. Like, why don't we just ask you that basic question? When do you think the strait will reopen? I mean, typically you have a deal when it's painful for everyone in the negotiation. And it's not really painful for either side, or not painful enough for either side to make the compromises needed. Iran is feeling the economic pain, for sure. There's unemployment, there's inflation. But the regime can impose a lot of... [5:00] penurries over the population and, you know, they at all don't face any imminent election. President Trump does face an election later this year, but the price of gasoline is going up. It's undeniable, four and a half dollars a gallon. It's more expensive, but still, if you look at American economies, it's still performing well. Earnings are good. The S&P 500 is near a record high it doesn't feel for the u.s that really they are the president is suffering a massive economic crisis that he's going to force his hand to to concede to to iran so we are in a really kind of bad situation you are hoping for a reopening that is painful but not yet really painful enough that everyone is forced to compromise and that's what i'm worried that is not getting painful enough Almost one is that Iran was suffering a massive economic problem and that the president was facing $150 or higher, and then everyone has to agree. We are not there yet. So it may take longer. Lorkin, so again, for those who don't know, Lorkin, not only a journalist but actually long practicing farmer someone who actually you know in the business How are we doing on food here I suppose a lot of people look at this crisis right now and they say oh, we're back in 2022 again. And I think we're in a completely different situation. And one of the big reasons we're in a different situation is the world's food supply 2025, into early 2026, it's been really strong. Like the world is drawn out of it. There is a lot of food. The world is drowning in wheat. It is swimming in milk. We have so much food out there. The only thing we're short of is beef. and we know that the US beef prices have gone up, beef prices have gone up around the world but we've loads of chicken, loads of poultry so there is loads of food out there the real problem with having loads of food this is very like what Javier said there's no pressure in food prices we see some food prices are driven by transport costs more than the cost of producing food it's the cost of transporting the food from the farm to the factory to the shop that's driving at the price right now the problem's going to arise in 6 months and 12 months time when the decisions be made today about do I plant that field of wheat or do I breed more cattle for next year? And farmers are going to say, no, we're not going to do that. If you look at the U.S. at the moment, forecast out we have the lowest wheat plantation in the U.S. total acreage ever. This is going back to date in 1919. So there's a real squeeze on food, not now, but in 12 months. And maybe this time next year you be looking at a burger and the price of the bun is going to cost as much as the price of the meat it going to be And that kind of what we looking at and that the real squeeze But the pressure isn there at the moment on that There our headline The price of the bun is as much as the price of the burger. I have a farming question, a bit of a sidetrack. If this is about your Japanese not-weed, I have no answer for this. Yeah, well, I need advice on that. But setting that aside, farmers are always complaining about one thing or another. Like, they seem miserable. But when we talk to you, you seem okay. That's because I stopped farming. At least my farmer is somebody else. I gave it up. Farming's tough. I think one of the big problems we see at the moment, and this is going to come back to my earlier point, the price the farmers are getting at the moment they're looking at wheat is very low. The price they're looking at for milk is very low. And they're saying, well, what decision are we going to make? I can't turn around and say, like US farmers or Irish farmers, European farmers will go and say, we need more money from the government. And they might get a bailiff from the government. If I'm a farmer in somewhere else, sub-Saharan Africa or in East Asia, they're really going to struggle in the next 6-12 months because where's the bailout come from? Because they're already so subsidized with fertilizers and stuff like that. Going back to the question, you know, it all comes down to the strait. So the war is over two months old right now. And I think, like, you know, again, when we first started having conversations about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz people were talking about barrel oil in fairly short order and you know it not It not there yet Explain this gap how we have the you know the nightmare scenario for the oil market, and it's obviously up a lot, but it's not at $200. It's still in the low, I don't know what it is right now, somewhere in the low hundreds, depending on what benchmark you're looking at. Yeah, it's about $100 a barrel for oil. I mean, again, when, you know, I was listening recently, Fatih Virol, the head of the International Energy agency saying this crisis is worse than 1973, 79, and 2022 all put together. Then you look at the price of oil and say, well, no, really. And then you look at the price of natural gas, the price of electricity, the price of coal, because we have this obsession with oil. First, you know, I raise my hand. I am obsessed with the price. Yeah, it's your fault, Javier. It is my fault. It's oil, crude oil, and olive oil. Those are my obsessions. Just don't get it mixed up. But the energy wall is much larger than oil. And for many, right now, most of the energy that we are using is electricity. And electricity prices in Europe are, on average, above what they were on average 2025. So there is not a problem there. But you are right. People were expecting much higher prices. You have asked me a year ago how year we [10:00] have 60 plus days of the Strait of Hormuz close, and this is all what has happened, and the war and the missiles and so on, probably would have said, well, oil starts with 200, and we are at 200 and something. Why we are not there? I mean, bypass pipelines have done a lot of work. We have used the strategic petroleum reserves of everywhere other than China. We are drawing down inventories at a very fast pace. And I do think that perhaps what I underestimated is the amount of demand destruction. that we have seen already. Somehow, we have managed to reduce demand by probably about 5 million barrels a day, about 5% of the market, without really creating a lot of economic pain. And it's a bit unkind, to put it this way, but for the global economy, for the stock market, it does matter where the demand destruction is happening. It's not the same that it happens, say, in Pakistan. or Bangladesh that it happens in Germany as it was the case in 2022. So I think that those factors are but we are creating a flow of supply using a stockpile Yeah That cannot go forever That is at some point comes to an end but it lasting longer than I would have thought You know you mentioned electricity prices not being as high as you might have expected, given everything that's going on. It's become a cliche, I think, to talk about Europe always facing one shock or another, or Europe being the loser from whatever the latest crisis is i'm sorry to our europe-based audience but is there a difference between an oil shock versus an energy shock in europe there is because uh i mean i i think that we in some ways we we have forgotten how bad 2022 was in terms of energy shock i mean take electricity and let's look at just a wholesale market and let's use the german contract as a average of europe pre-2022 price say there was 50 to 75 euros per megawatt hour that went to a thousand euros per megawatt hour now it's around 80. so you know not not far away to really the normal level or let just kind of take a step back because i i thought that to me the defining kind of picture of 2022 crisis you cannot really uh picture um electricity other than the pylons or a nuclear power reactor and so on but to me was the electricity bills that people will post on social media or some small and medium enterprises will email to me and i do remember uh french baker sending me his electric you know corner shop uh in the outskirts of paris Typically, his electricity bill came around 700 to 800 euros a month. And it just went from that to about 7,000 euros a month. Wow. And we have not seen that. But electricity is what really makes the world tick. And particularly in the service industry, which is really what drives economic growth these days. and that's why the 2022 crisis was so destructive particularly for an inflationary point of view because a lot of businesses were receiving electricity bills that they were bankruptcy events i mean either they increase prices and a lot or they will be out of business and we don't have that today and that is that's the difference i'm not oil is very important because it permeates everywhere. I mean as Lorcan was saying if we have a food price in the next few months it going to be more because everything is more expensive to transport So you know your groceries go on a truck to the supermarket They may be on a on a plastic tray on the supermarket. That's going to be also more expensive. So inflation will permeate. But electricity is a big deal. It doesn't really get the attention that it deserves. By the way, we should mention that because we don't know exactly when this episode is going to come out on the feeds, that this is all occurring, what's the date? May 7th. 7-14, British summertime. We had a request from someone specifically to say British summertime. So here it is. Whoever made that request, that was for you. What summer? Let's talk about health care for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a health care company linking patient [15:00] care and pharmacy services, and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. 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Let's create smarter business, IBM. Yeah. Lorkin, Javier mentioned, OK, maybe one reason that oil isn't as high as it was because they're stockpiles. One of the episodes that we did sometime in early March that got a lot of people's attention was about fertilizer. I understand because I heard from someone that there is actually a fair amount of excess fertilizer right now that cushioning the blow Can you explain this to me In Europe particularly there is a nice bit of fertilizer right now and this is such a Joe story It brilliant because it got European environment Lorcan is the one who told me the story earlier, so I'm setting him up to tell the story. So what we have in Europe, they brought in legislation a few years ago to support what's called the domestic fertilizer industry, European producers. European producers are very high-cost producers, and one of their biggest costs is they have to buy carbon credits for the energy that they use because it's hugely energy intensive to make fertilizer, as we all found out in 2022 with the gas crisis. So those carbon credits have to be bought by Europe. So it means that external producers outside of Europe have a competitive advantage because they don't have to buy carbon credits. So they're bought in this piece of legislation that's called the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Lovely acronym is CBAM because it hits you really hard. But we knew the 1st of January 2026, this CBAM tax was coming and it was going to put up to 120 euros per ton on urea coming in urea is nitrogen fertilizer so like all the farmers in europe said well we're going to buy fertilizer in november and december when we'd never normally buy fertilizer that is like the middle of winter you're not spending money it was a big boom in purchases in europe of fertilizer in november and december of 2025 up 60 to 80 percent wow in of what they normally would be so when we came into January very much like farmers had the fertilizer or merchants had the fertilizer up till about May or June of this year sitting in the yard. So much of the planting season has been taken care of. The UK being outside the EU didn't have CBAM. It has its own thing, but it's not coming into 1st January 2027. So the UK are a bit late to the party there. I'm very sorry to say. But Ireland and most of Europe, like that's where you see what could be important numbers. December was the biggest number, 60 or 80 percent higher than normally would be so it's been a hugely beneficial tax in the very short term in the long term now once we get through those stocks we'll see that imported fertilizer coming in and it's going to be more price because seabank will be there but also if we look at countries that rely on Australia for most further nitrogen supply they are now shopping in North Africa where Algeria Morocco and Egypt where a lot of the European imports come from And those countries like India particularly are buying, putting huge contracts to buy that supply. So not only will there be CBAM on the imports, there will also be more expensive fertilizers as well. So again, as Javier said and I'm saying, this is not a crisis that's going away, this is a crisis that's delayed. And that's what we're seeing all the way through it. So we see stories now that, especially in the US, I guess maybe not so much here for reasons that you just outlined, but you see stories saying farmers can't. [20:00] buy all the fertilizer they want at the price they want. Well, yes. What does that actually mean? There is a global price for it. I suppose if we step back to, say, pre-2026, the fertilizer supply for a particular fertilizer, like for nitrogen, was a bit tight. So we see prices were creeping up. We go, OK, it's a bit tight. We'll get through the next year. We need to get some more supply online. The fact you take 30% of it out straight away means there's a fight on for what's there. and US farmers generally, like farming is an incredibly tight margin business. We're looking at net margins of like less than 1% generally year to year. So if you get prices to go up by 10%, you're kind of going, is it worth planting this year? So the farmers are giving out, are complaining, as you say, like they're never unhappy. They have good reason not to be happy because they look at... You don't hold it against. No. No, no. But they have good reason to be unhappy. So I look at the farmers in the US, they're saying they can't get the fertiliser they want, the price they want. Well, the price they want is free and all of it is free now, but they have a cost-benefit analysis built into their system. They can pay $450 for nitrogen, they can't pay $700 for nitrogen. And it's as simple as that. And almost everything in finance is a spread Sure You have the price of corn you have the price of fertilizer and you need to look at the ratio What is different in 2022 is that the fertilizer price increased a lot but the price of corn also increased a lot. So you're a farmer, you were taking a hit on the cost, but you were benefiting from a high price. Fertilizers were more or less what Lorcan was describing, say for $400 to $800 a ton, but corn prices went from $4 to $8 a bushel. This time, corn prices have barely moved. They're at $4.50 a bushel, and the price of fertilizer has gone through the roof. So that spread is effectively negative to the farmer. That's what, for American farmers, this crisis feels very different to 2022, because their cost is up, but their potential profit is just down. I think it's worth, just to bring you back to my topic, the farmers again, because I love talking about farmers. The other products that farmers make, like dairy farmers are in real trouble because we've seen global milk supply up, I think it was 5% last year. We've seen some European countries up 7% so far this year as well. So the price of milk has gone below the price of production. In the beef side we have huge beef prices which are great but farmers don have cattle to sell The reason the price has gone up so much because particularly in the U the cattle in the U is the lowest it been in 75 years Actually can you explain it This is a source of a lot of controversy the cattle specifically because some people want to blame the processors or whatever. Give us your diagnosis of beef prices. There are too few cattle and too much demand. Thank you, Lorcan, for that insight. The lines on the chart. Cat on red meat. yes no i think the the first of all i don't want to ever defend one of the big four meat processors but they are losing money hand over fist processing beef at the moment so at tyson results throughout the other day they lost 150 million dollars in three months processing beef so it's very hard to see how they're making a killing doing that because clearly they lose money but the problem is there are not enough cattle to be killed the retail price hasn't gone so everyone's competing for the cattle that are there to go to slaughter the retail price has moved a lot but hasn't moved enough. And we're getting to a place now in a lot of markets where we're starting to see demand destruction happen. So I suppose the time between you're buying the animal and the animal goes to market, you're going to be caught a little bit in that. But also I think it's very important for people outside the industry. If you kill a steer, you don't have one customer for that. You got 25 different customers Like the US is one of the largest importers of beef in the world and one of the world largest exporters So you go how that work Because the U people love to eat minced or ground beef you call it That what you eat ground beef The rest of the world likes steaks and stuff So you're importing and exporting different bits of meat. So the steak business is at a different price to the ground meat business. So you have all different kind of things happening. But the fundamental problem is there are not enough cattle. Supply and demand. Supply and demand. Javier, I want to segue to a big recent headline in the energy world, which is the UAE leaving OPEC. And it's been a habit on the podcast to describe relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia as frenemies for many, many years. However, I think we might be dropping like the FR part fairly quickly. What does this all mean? I mean, this is the biggest challenge that I think OPEC has faced. I mean, typically, it's said that the four most dangerous wars in global finances this time is different. I think that the three most dangerous wars in analyzing the oil market are OPEC is dead. And I will say that if it's not dead, it's really bleeding and bleeding badly. Many countries have left OPEC before. See if I can remember all of them. It was Indonesia, Qatar, Ecuador, and I'm missing the UAE, and I'm missing [25:00] One, I know that I'm missing one. It will come back to me. Angola, sorry. I was going to guess that. Sorry. I wish I had said that. They were different for two, three important reasons. The UAE have the ambition to produce a lot more oil, and I have been very clear that they're about with a capacity of 4.5 million barrels a day. They want to go to 5 million barrels a day and potentially higher. They have the geological endowment to produce that extra oil, and they have also the money to back the dreams that they have on producing more with money to build the facilities. So they will produce a lot more oil and I think that that really brings a big challenge to Saudi Arabia. And if and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, we can have a situation in which for a while there's going to be demand for the extra oil because global inventories are going to need to be replenished because a lot of countries are going to build larger strategic inventories. But at some point, you're going to see a raise for market share. And if we have a raise for market share, then everyone wants to produce more oil, then the price of oil has to come down. OPEC is as strong as their members ability to endure financial pain but withholding barrels from the market Barrels that they can produce that they decide we are not going to put them on the market. And if you look through that lens, OPEC, the two most powerful members were Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Those were the members that they were withholding the most barrels from the market and in a percentage basis comparing how much spare capacity they were living aside to their production even the uae was doing more was taking more pain than the saudis that's why uh the uae living is so important and also because you could have others i mean if we do have elections in venezuela at some point and i hope that we see that towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year, and the opposition wins. The opposition has been historically very hostile to OPEC. So we can have another, and Venezuela is another country that wants to produce more oil, that has the geological endowment to produce more oil. Question is, does Venezuela have either the money to do it themselves? Probably not Can it put the financial incentives for big oil to go there At the moment they are not there but over time perhaps they are Speaking of big sort of policy earthquakes whatever Tracy and I were here just about a year ago in London, right in the wake of Liberation Day. How are the farmers feeling about American trade policy these days? Morkin, you can't swear on this podcast. Well, we can leave it out. No, I think American trade policy has been not as bad as American foreign exchange policy. Okay, same on. That's like if we look at like for European exports to the US, it's generally higher value stuff like wine, butter, stuff like that. We don't trade much meat with the US because you feel your meat full of hormones. We don't want that and we don't want our nice healthy meat. So it's like butter and wine is the two things we export over. And they're higher end products. because they can be treated with Kerrygold, not to mention a brand, and you beat that up as well. But it's like three times the price of US bought and it sells in US retail. Yeah. And wine is, French wine, French brand, they're kind of the same. So it's the FX rate that's done more damage, I think, than, because it has led to uneven demand. Like US president gonna do something so people will buy stock for three months And then they have the stock they burn their stock down and then they buy three months of stock again So it kind of led to difference in trade flows But market shares in general it hasn changed as much as the headlines suggest But the thing that's left the mark is the fact the dollar is 20% weaker than it was a year and a bit ago. And I guess they had a bigger problem. I think one of the biggest changes we're seeing is more on the consumer side than the policy side. Like we talk a lot about GLP-1. So people are eating a lot less. they're in a lot less and also in a lot less in what we call QSR's quick serve restaurants people aren't buying pizzas so much because pizzas are food I'm done with drugs I don't want that but what they are doing is they're tanking up on protein everything you see I'm sure you've seen it advertised everywhere protein here protein there a lot of dairy companies in the US particularly and in Europe as well they're making dairy products whey protein it's called in order to get whey you produce cheese 30 years ago we produced loads of cheese and the whey was what we fed to the pigs because who would want to drink whey Now we produce whey, and the cheese is what we don't know what to do with this. It still makes, the best thing to do is a liter of milk, or sorry, a pint of milk for the US audience. If you have a pint of whey, you want to make money on it, you split it into cheese and whey. You get the whey, you turn it into WPI, which is high protein whey, and then you sell that to anyone [30:00] any food in the world because they want to put 20 grams or 30 grams or 40 grams of weight on their product because they can sell it for 25 30 percent more and that's where the market is at the moment and right now in the u.s i think there's maybe four or five absolutely massive cheese plants being built so you're going to be swimming in cheese in the u.s it doesn't sound that bad but it's american cheese then let's be clear on what you're swimming in yeah but that is that the look on Javier's face right now at the thought of eating American cheese. It gets worse for Javier. It does get worse. My question is, how you guys have survived in just California and olive oil? You never saw a knife in Instagram or an idea. So we're going to see that in the next couple of years. There could be loads of cheese, loads of whey, lots of investments in that side of things. For the producers at the moment, they're trying to get their whey, their milk turned into whey and cheese as quick as they can. So they start making harder cheeses. Everyone's making soft cheese now because you can turn soft cheese around the market very quickly. The price for cheese has collapsed and it's going to get lower, but you're not going to be able to get an aged cheese because no one's going to, at scale anyway, because no one's going to tie the capital up for six months or 12 months. I just mark it where it falling down because everyone going to produce in cheese So if you want a nice aged one year two year old cheese buy him now because it hard to get him in two years This is actually a disaster Everyone's going to be making mozzarella and cream cheese and whatever they put in spray cans in America. It's all the cheese you're going to get. Javier, just going back to oil for a second, away from the cheese and curds and whey. One thing that you keep hearing from the Trump administration is there's an expectation that the U.S. will be able to manage its own supply and that as prices go up, you're going to see that supply side response from the drillers and we're going to be awash in oil. Is that playing out at all? We are going to have a response from the drillers. I think that U.S. production in 2026 will be higher than we have expected six, 12 months ago. I think that we are beginning to see some significant American companies talking about increasing production. I think that a hundred dollars oil you were raising production at 80 or 85 certainly you are going to increase production more uh at 100 but we are talking about a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day extra compared to a hole in the market of 10 million it it not really gonna move the needle but yeah i will i will expect to see uh u production by by the end of the year the year to be higher than I had expected I have a question for the Americans What is the oil price the gas price in America that actually causes political trouble? Like, is it six, eight, ten dollars a barrel? Where does it happen? It's all relative. I don't know. I live in Manhattan. I don't, I'm an out of touch New Yorker, but yeah, four, four, that's when you really get it, I think. Anyway, Javier and Lorcan, thank you so much for coming and joining us at Odd Lots Live. Thanks for having me. Thank you. That was our episode recorded live in London on May 7th at Wilton's Music Hall. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway. You can follow me at Tracy Allaway. And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmin, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more OddLots content, go to Bloomberg slash OddLots We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes And you can chat about all these topics 24 in our Discord discord slash oddlots And if you enjoy Oddlots if you like it when we do these live shows and talk about the upcoming aged cheese shortage then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. Thank you. 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