Deutsche Bank's Tarman, Singhal See China Threatening Western AI CapEx

德意志银行Tarman与Singhal：中国正威胁西方AI资本支出 随着中国利用主权债权国地位与低成本技术栈削弱西方对AI资本支出的依赖及硬件供应链，西方股市面临日益严峻的风险。 德意志银行的Ozan Tarman与Aditya Singhal探讨了在头条新闻剧烈波动背后驱动全球市场的核心宏观力量。他们详细分析了偏低的股票仓位与强劲的企业盈利如何推动市场反弹，同时对西方债务驱动的服务型经济与中国主导的实体制造业之间的结构性经常账户失衡发出预警。讨论还深入剖析了“战争通胀”（warflation）动态、央行干预与快钱波动，以及涵盖AI硬件、光计算和机器人领域的新兴技术博弈战场。 市场瞬时突发新闻引发的极端波动往往只是噪音，而股市持续上行的核心驱动力在于“空客车”效应——由于机构与散户此前对股票配置不足，在宏观恐慌情绪消退后被迫追高进场。 (4:15) 第一季度强劲的企业财报增长加速至24%，为科技巨头及更广泛的股市反弹提供了坚实的基本面支撑，推动叙事从劳动力放缓担忧快速转向“战时通胀”与长期AI增长周期。 (4:15) 宏观交易员强调应过滤头条噪音并跨利率、外汇、信贷等资产构建高凸性组合；同时，西方经济体长期依赖服务业并面临再工业化与巨额资本支出挑战，而中国则掌控了全球55%的实体制造业与关键矿产提炼。 (12:43) 全球主权债务激增与财政主导迫使长端债券收益率触及数十年高位，主权市场正徘徊于重演英国“特拉斯时刻”的纪律惩罚与央行协同压制收益率的“金融抑制”之间。 (17:11) 全球资产配置格局正在重构，中国在AI模型、华为芯片集群及机器人硬件领域的进展，推动海外投资者从视中国为“不可投资”转变为将中国政府债券与外汇视为极具吸引力的避险与分散配置资产。 (30:00)

Deutsche Bank macro specialists Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal argue that global markets are shaped by structural investor underpositioning and a widening imbalance between Western financialized economies and China's industrial and technological self-sufficiency. Underhedged Positioning and Corporate Earnings Resilience (4:15) Tarman attributes the resilience of equity markets to light institutional and retail positioning, describing the situation as 'empty buses' where investors lack long exposure. When macro headline scares subside—such as sudden military rumors regarding the Strait of Hormuz or the April 2025 tariff shock—underallocated participants are forced to chase prices higher. This positioning dynamic is reinforced by corporate fundamentals, as Q1 corporate earnings growth accelerated to a five-year peak of 24%, driven primarily by mega-cap technology firms. Global Supply Asymmetries and the Western Re-Shoring Imperative (12:43) Singhal outlines a structural divergence between Western nations and China. China and its aligned partners control approximately 55% of global manufacturing capacity and up to 90% to 95% of critical processing chains like cobalt refining. Historically, Western nations issued fiat currency and traded high-end services, luxury goods, and education in return for manufactured products. As China builds domestic service industries and internalizes supply chains, it depends on the West for little outside of aerospace components from Boeing and Airbus. Fiscal Dominance and Emerging-Market Dynamics in Developed Debt (17:11) Persistent current account imbalances and rising government debt have pushed developed sovereign bond markets toward what Singhal describes as an 'EM-ification,' where nations with high real rates and heavy energy imports face severe scrutiny from foreign capital. In the UK, which relies on international funding for twin budget and current account deficits, long-end yields recently hit multi-decade highs. Tarman expects authorities to avert renewed fiscal crises primarily through financial repression, relying on coordinated central bank actions and shortened debt maturities to manage borrowing costs. Contrasting AI Market Valuations with China's Hardware Capabilities (27:30) While Western market sentiment draws comparisons to 1999 and prices large capital expenditures to scale AI model parameters toward artificial general intelligence, Singhal notes that China is deploying competitive domestic alternatives. These include DeepSeek v4, GLM-5, Huawei chip clusters rivaling Nvidia H100s, and optical and quantum computing hardware. Singhal warns that as AI software models converge, competitive value will pivot to physical implementation and robotics, where China maintains an advantage in manufacturing supply chains. Crowded Consensuses and the Shifting Perception of Chinese Assets (24:45) Market consensus frequently misjudges macro developments, as shown by late-2024 and early-2025 bets anticipating 5.50% US Treasury yields and steep offshore yuan depreciation that failed to materialize. Concurrently, investor sentiment regarding Chinese assets has evolved from treating the region as uninvestable to considering Chinese foreign exchange and Chinese Government Bonds (CGBs) as portfolio safe havens and diversifiers amidst broader global bond volatility. The discussion leaves open whether Western economies can successfully finance the capital expenditures needed to rebuild physical manufacturing before sovereign bond markets enforce strict fiscal discipline, particularly as geopolitical conflicts and trade re-alignments test central bank interventions.

德意志银行宏观专家奥赞·塔尔曼（Ozan Tarman）与阿迪蒂亚·辛格尔（Aditya Singhal）指出，尽管短期地缘政治与宏观新闻引发剧烈波动，全球资产价格的根本走势仍由投资者底层仓位配置不足、以科技巨头为核心的企业盈利韧性，以及东西方之间深刻的制造业与经常账户失衡所驱动。他们认为，西方国家正面临财政主导与再工业化资本支出的双重考验，主权债券市场将不得不在市场纪律惩罚与新兴市场式的金融压制之间寻求平衡。 仓位偏轻与盈利韧性支撑风险资产 (4:15) 奥赞·塔尔曼指出，股票市场持续上行的核心动力在于定位格局呈现“空车”（empty buses）状态，即机构与散户投资者的股票配置普遍偏低，缺乏足够的多头敞口。他将当前局势与2025年4月初的关税冲击相类比：一旦短期宏观恐慌情绪消退或关键期限推迟（例如2025年4月9日关键程序推迟两周后市场确立底部），配置不足的资金便被迫入场追高。与此同时，坚实的企业基本面提供了强劲动力，第一季度企业盈利同比增速从上一季度的13%跃升至24%，创下五年新高，并主要由大型科技公司主导。 阿迪蒂亚·辛格尔进一步分析了交易团队在面对头条新闻高频冲击时的应对机制。他强调，试图针对突发新闻进行即时交易极易遭受反复绞杀；相反，专业交易员必须在利率、外汇、信用、股票和大宗商品五大核心资产类别中建立结构性与主题性视角，评估各资产类别的定价内涵，并根据流动性约束和回撤承受力构建具有凸性（convexity）的非对称风险回报结构。辛格尔认为，市场实际上已经在价格中反映了地缘局势最终走向缓和的高概率预期。 全球失衡与西方经济“新兴市场化” (12:43) 阿迪蒂亚·辛格尔提出了关于全球宏观经济失衡的结构性论断，剖析了西方经济体与中国及相关国家之间深层的实体错配。过去几十年中，中国建立了对全球实体制造业和关键资源加工的绝对主导地位，控制着全球55%的制造业产能，并在钴精炼等关键供应链中占据90%至95%的份额。相比之下，西方国家主要依靠发行法定货币与主权债务，换取实体商品，并出口高端消费品、奢侈品、旅游及教育等服务业。然而，当前中国正迅速补齐本土服务业、汽车和本土技术生态，大幅降低对西方服务的依赖。 辛格尔指出，西方国家面临着从零重建实体工业产能的硬性要求，这需要规模庞大的资本开支来支持本地采矿、提炼与高端制造。与此同时，西方经济体表现出传统新兴市场的脆弱特征（即“新兴市场化”）：高实际利率、能源冲击的高传导率以及严重的经常账户失衡。由于西方过度依赖服务业出口，而在能源与商品上高度依赖进口，随着人工智能对服务业产生潜在替代冲击，且中国对西方商品的进口依赖几乎仅限于波音和空客的航空零部件，纠正这一经常账户逆差将成为未来数年的核心宏观挑战。 财政主导困局与主权债务金融压制 (17:11) 奥赞·塔尔曼探讨了全球主要央行与财政当局之间关于“财政主导”的激烈博弈。美国、法国、日本和英国的30年期国债面临持续抛售压力，收益率被推至数十年高位，其中英国30年期国债收益率更触及1998年以来的最高水平。塔尔曼指出，由于英国同时存在经常账户赤字与预算赤字，其国债高度依赖外国资本承接。面对财政扩张带来的收益率失控风险，主权债市面临两条路径：要么重演2022年英国特拉斯（Liz Truss）时期的市场纪律强力纠偏，要么转向新兴市场式的“金融压制”。 塔尔曼预测金融压制最终将占据上风，财政当局与央行将通过缩短国债发行期限、平抑长端期限溢价来人为压低借贷成本。此外，塔尔曼回顾了2024年底至2025年初特朗普胜选后的拥挤共识交易溃败，当时市场普遍押注美债10年期收益率升至5.50%并大举买入美元兑离岸人民币高行权价看涨期权，但离岸人民币最终保持坚挺。当美元兑日元突破160且美债收益率飙升威胁全球股市时，日本央行通过主交易商进行汇率巡检，释放干预信号以抑制波动率并引导风险平价资金回流，体现了政策制定者与追求高波动率的快钱基金之间的持续拉锯。 AI估值分化与中国硬科技及资产重估 (27:30) 在探讨科技估值与产业演进时，辛格尔将西方的资本市场叙事与中国的实体硬件进展进行了对比。西方股市当前的估值高度依赖于数年内持续扩大的资本开支，寄希望于将模型参数从7万亿扩展至15万亿乃至50万亿，以英伟达处理器实现通用人工智能。然而，辛格尔指出，中国已构建起具有高度成本竞争力的自主硬件体系，包括对标英伟达H100性能的华为计算集群、无需传统铜连接的光计算GPU、量子计算，以及DeepSeek v4和GLM-5等大模型。 辛格尔预判，随着各方主力模型性能逐步收敛，科技产业的主战场将不可避免地转向物理部署与实体机器人领域，以特斯拉Optimus为代表的人形机器人革命将成为下一波核心叙事，而西方在硬件制造和供应链配套上的劣势将在这一阶段更加凸显。塔尔曼补充称，国际机构对中国资产的态度正在经历从“不可投资”到“否认、愤怒、接受”的心理周期，离岸人民币汇率、中国股票以及中国国债正逐步被全球投资者重新视作重要的避险资产与组合分散配置工具。 奥赞·塔尔曼与阿迪蒂亚·辛格尔的讨论表明，尽管地缘政治冲突与通胀反弹带来阶段性扰动，但仓位偏轻与盈利驱动仍为风险资产提供了抗跌缓冲。然而，西方经济体能否在庞大主权债务与财政主导约束下顺利推进再工业化，以及在技术竞争从软件模型转向实体机器人硬件的过程中能否弥合制造能力断层，构成了中长期全球宏观定价中尚未解决的核心疑问。

## Background 本期内容由彭博（Bloomberg）旗下的《Odd Lots》播客于2026年5月19日在RSS及网络平台发布。节目记录了在伦敦威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）的现场演出，由德意志银行全球宏观业务副董事长奥赞·塔尔曼（Ozan Tarman）和新兴市场交易主管阿迪蒂亚·辛格尔（Aditya Singhal）共同探讨如何看透冲突头条、评估科技股与AI叙事，以及应对快钱与央行博弈等底层宏观基本面问题。 ## TL;DR 面对地缘政治冲突频发与通胀阴霾，美股却在极端轻仓的“空车”踩踏与亮眼盈利驱动下持续狂飙。德意志银行交易员指出，成熟宏观策略依赖跨资产结构性定价而非追逐即时新闻杂音，并提出了审视中西方制造业脱钩与经常账户失衡的“太空置换”推演框架。西方当前正通过发债短端化与金融抑制应对财政主导风险，而在汇率端，日本央行联手风险平价阵营与押注波动的快钱基金展开拉锯。与此同时，伴随中国在全栈AI生态与底层硬件制造上的坚实崛起，海外投资者正逐步破除“不可投资论”，展开对中国资产的重新配置。 ## Atmosphere & style 现场对话节奏紧凑明快且充满机锋，既有伦敦音乐厅舞台上的幽默调侃，又洋溢着资深卖方交易台直面惊涛骇浪时的沉稳与笃定。嘉宾们用“空大巴”、“太空置换”等生动比喻化繁为简，将后台突发假新闻的惊险瞬间与庞杂的宏观模型拆解得淋漓尽致。整场对谈在头条噪音与底层理性的剧烈碰撞中层层推进，让听众仿佛置身于交易员屏幕前，身临其境地感受大国博弈与资产定价背后的博弈张力。 ## Bulletin - `03:40` 美股无视中东地缘动荡持续走高的核心动力在于“空车效应”（极度轻仓导致的空头踩踏），同时叠加第一季度标普 500 企业盈利增速达 24% 的基本面强劲支撑。 - `18:00` 西方国家正面临财政主导与长债收益率失控的压力，普遍转向类似新兴市场的“金融抑制”策略，通过大幅压低长债净发行、转向国库券融资来锁住长端借贷成本。 - `12:35` 在中西方脱钩的“太空置换”推演中，中国掌握全球 55% 制造业及 90%-95% 的战略金属精炼，作为终极债权人已转向收储实物大宗商品，而西方正面临自下而上重建制造体系的严峻挑战。 - `25:00` 日元汇率博弈的实质是央行护航风险平价与对冲基金“快钱”做空波动率的对决，日本央行干预压低美元兑日元成功带动美债收益率回落并稳定了全球股市估值。 - `30:15` 海外投资者对中国资产的“不可投资论”已被证伪，外汇端配置启动后，具备避险与分散价值的中国国债及股票市场依然拥有极其广阔的未饱和仓位空间。 ## Key takeaways - `05:58` 面对瞬息万变、真假难辨的即时新闻头条，成熟宏观交易员依托跨五大资产类别的结构性框架，选择最具凸性的资产表达长期观点，而非进行日内新闻博弈。 - `03:40` 美股此轮暴涨的资金面本质是“公交车上空无一人”，绝大多数机构与散户踏空或极度轻仓，地缘危机暂缓便触发了历史性的空头踩踏与追涨行情。 - `10:00` 宏观共识在极短时间内发生剧烈逆转，从担忧 AI 冲击白领就业引发衰退的“降息买债”叙事，闪电切换至中东战火引发的“战时通胀”与全面拥抱 AI 增长泡沫。 - `10:00` 当前市场对 AI 繁荣的信仰被类比为 1999 年互联网泡沫末期，在极强动能驱动下，交易员眼下大多被迫选择顺流而上拥抱泡沫，而非逆势博弈均值回归。 - `12:35` “太空置换”思想实验揭示了结构性失衡：西方高附加值服务业壁垒正被中国本土全栈生态侵蚀，若供应链切断，西方将面临缺乏提炼产能与工程师队伍的制造业空心化困境。 - `12:35` 中国作为全球债权人，在核心资产购买受限后选择将纸币盈余转向战略大宗商品收储；美国等西方债务国试图通过外交磋商缓解严峻的经常账户失衡，但传统贸易手段收效甚微。 - `18:00` 西方多国主权债务正暗中走向“新兴市场化”，财政部与央行深度捆绑，通过削减长端国债发行、堆积超短端国库券的“金融抑制”手段竭力避免重演“特拉斯时刻”。 - `20:00` 英国因偏弱的净国际投资头寸、双赤字以及对海外资本承接国债的刚性依赖，显露出典型的新兴市场脆弱性，原油传导带来的高真实利率进一步放大了外部风险溢价。 - `22:30` 中国正在形成由 DeepSeek 模型、智谱 GLM、昇腾集群及光计算/量子计算构成的平行自主 AI 生态，顶尖工程师资源的集聚将带来激进的全球降本效应与结构性竞争壁垒。 - `22:30` 华尔街在特朗普二任初期曾形成高度一致的 USD/CNH 看涨期权与美债收益率冲高交易，但人民币的超预期坚韧打破了机构的单向狂热押注。 - `25:00` 外汇与利率市场正在上演拔河赛：日本央行等官方力量通过干预日元来压制跨资产波动率、维稳风险平价估值，对抗试图靠美债大跌制造波动牟利的对冲基金快钱。 - `26:40` 西方 AI 估值依赖于巨额 CapEx 堆叠单体 AGI 模型的假设，但在硬件连接层面，传统的铜缆架构正面临光计算与光互联技术的强力挑战，应用端基础模型终将走向收敛。 - `30:00` 无论西方在人形机器人等具身智能概念上叙事如何宏大，物理落地均受制于制造底色，中国在核心零部件与供应链上的绝对主导构成了不可逾越的实物支撑。 - `30:15` 海外资本对中国资产的心态经历从“否认”到“承认”的转变，中国国债凭借避险与多元分散价值备受青睐，中国股票与债券整体仍处于极具吸引力的欠配置阶段。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` 现场录音的“保质期”与德意志银行宏观团队登场 在伦敦历史悠久的威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）现场，主持人 Tracy Alloway 和 Joe Weisenthal 拉开了这场《Odd Lots》现场录音的序幕。两人一开场就拿金融播客的时效性打趣：市场变化实在太快，任何关于行情的讨论往往在录完一两分钟后就彻底过时了。不过，Joe 认为这恰恰给听众提供了买票看现场演出的绝佳理由，更重要的是，虽然屏幕上的行情与头条新闻瞬息万变，但顶级交易员用来理解市场动荡的“底层分析框架”是长期有效的。 为了解构当前混乱的市场，本期节目邀请了两位来自德意志银行的重量级嘉宾。一位是该节目的老朋友、德意志银行全球宏观业务副董事长 Ozan Tarman；另一位则是首次做客节目的明星交易员、德意志银行负责利率、外汇与信用业务的新兴市场交易主管 Aditya Singhal。两人将从卖方交易台的实战视角，剖析地缘政治冲突下的资产定价谜题。 ### `03:40` “车上空无一人”：地缘危机与美股不合理上涨的底层逻辑 面对全球经济遭遇的一系列严峻挑战与地缘冲突，金融市场上演的却是各类资产图表“直线上冲”的景象。Joe 抛出了核心疑问：为什么坏消息不断，市场却能持续走高？Ozan Tarman 一上台就分享了刚刚在台后发生的惊险一幕：就在他登台前 15 到 20 秒，一家新闻机构突然报道称“自由行动”（Operation Freedom）重启，美国前总统特朗普可能试图以武力强行打通霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）。标普 500 指数随即应声跳水，原油价格急剧暴拉；然而紧接着半岛电视台（Al Jazeera）出面辟谣，恐慌情绪瞬间平复。 Ozan 指出，尽管台上嘉宾与分析师列举了种种宏观风险，股市却能一路狂飙，其最根本的驱动力可以用一句话概括——“公交车上是空的”（buses are empty）。这个比喻形象地说明了几乎所有机构投资者、基金经理乃至街头散户都处于极度轻仓甚至踏空的状态。他将当下的行情与前一年的关税冲击做类比：当时关税大棒落下，市场一度悲观地认为“整个世界和市场都完了”，但随着特朗普退让，市场便头也不回地展开了波澜壮阔的反弹。今年的轨迹如出一辙：3 月 31 日《华尔街日报》率先透露可能将霍尔木兹海峡与军事行动切割处理，市场长舒了一口气；紧接着 4 月 9 日，军事行动宣布推迟两周。自此之后，由纳斯达克和标普 500 领衔的历史性科技股暴涨行情便彻底脱缰。 除了极端的空头仓位踩踏外，基本面盈利也提供了坚实支撑。Ozan 援引德意志银行知名策略师 Jim Reed 的最新研报指出，市场并非纯粹靠流动性和情绪推动。企业盈利在去年第四季度仅录得 13% 的同比增幅，而到了今年第一季度，在大型科技股的强劲带动下，盈利增速跃升至 24%，创下五年来的最高纪录，成为驱动指数不断上扬的真实引擎。 - **突发地缘头条的戏剧性波动**：登台前 20 秒，有关“美军或武力开启霍尔木兹海峡”的假新闻引发标普急跌与原油暴涨，随后迅速被辟谣抹平。 - **“空车”效应与空头踩踏**：从 4 月初至今的狂暴反弹中，全市场真正相信并重仓参与这波科技股行情的投资人“屈指可数，大概只有三到五个人”。 - **企业盈利基本面大爆发**：美股 Q1 盈利增速达 24%，创五年新高，远超上一季度的 13%。 ### `05:58` 交易员如何在虚实难辨的头条新闻狂潮中建立框架 面对 24 小时不断反转、虚实难辨的新闻轰炸，交易员究竟该如何筛选有效信息？Joe 幽默地发问：交易员们是否整天开着 Truth Social 窗口，或者直接凭借 Axios 的一条推送就敢贸然开仓？Aditya Singhal 从资深交易员的角度拆解了应对新闻噪音的实战方法论。他表示，成熟的宏观交易并非去追逐即时新闻，而是依托横跨五大资产类别（利率、外汇、信用、股票、大宗商品）的结构性框架。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 宏观交易员的新闻过滤与建仓决策架构 accDescr: 展示交易员如何将混乱的即时新闻转化为跨五大资产类别的结构性长线交易视角。 subgraph S1["市场噪音输入"] N1["冲突/调停头条新闻"] N2["社交媒体传言与辟谣"] end subgraph S2["核心处理框架"] F1["确立跨五大资产类别的宏观主线<br>(Rates, FX, Credit, Equities, Commodities)"] F2["识别价格失真 (如利率市场的六西格玛极端事件)"] F3["结合负债端久期与最大回撤承受度"] end subgraph S3["策略表达与执行"] E1["押注事件解决 (如巴基斯坦调解霍尔木兹、美中会谈)"] E2["选择最具凸性 (Convexity) 的资产表达长期观点"] end N1 --> F1 N2 --> F1 F1 --> F2 F2 --> F3 F3 --> E1 F3 --> E2 ``` Aditya 解释称，大多数交易员受限于自身资产类别的授权（Mandate），很难在短时间内频繁进出。因此，理性的做法是建立结构性长线假设，测算每类资产对该假设的定价程度，界定上行与下行风险收益比，并根据自身资金的负债期限与可承受的回撤幅度进行下注。例如，当前市场实际上已经开始暗中定价正面预期：霍尔木兹海峡过去三到四周并未发生大规模军事行动，巴基斯坦正在积极斡旋调解；与此同时，俄乌局势的潜在进展以及美国官员即将访华等事件，都为市场提供了边际改善的窗口。 当某一市场出现极度不理性的价格失真时——例如利率市场近期经历的“六西格玛”（Six Sigma）极端异常事件——价格往往已经脱离了基本逻辑。此时，试图“根据新闻头条做日内交易”无异于自杀，因为相互矛盾的消息随时可能引发剧烈反噬。成熟交易员的做法是彻底无视短期噪音，选择最具“凸性”（Convexity）的资产类别去表达方向性观点，然后坚定持仓、静观其变。随着讨论转向市场的不理性繁荣，Tracy 将话题引向支撑本轮美股大牛市的核心支柱——人工智能（AI）。Ozan 随即回忆起在伊朗战事爆发前两天，他与 Aditya 亲赴西棕榈滩和迈阿密拜访对冲基金客户的经历，当时全美金融圈正疯狂讨论一份关于 AI 模型与天价算力支出的重磅报告。 - **跨资产类别定价映射**：将宏观主线分别投射至利率、外汇、信用、股票与大宗商品五大领域，寻找尚未被完全定价的标的。 - **过滤极端事件噪声**：在利率市场出现六西格玛级别的非理性走势后，依靠结构性长期逻辑取代短线头条博弈。 - **迈阿密客户调研**：在伊朗危机爆发前夕，美国顶级对冲基金圈讨论的核心焦点几乎完全被 AI 投资热潮与算力支出所占据。 ### `10:00` AI叙事对战“战时通胀”：宏观共识的闪电逆转与1999年泡沫类比 在过去短短几个月内，宏观市场的交易逻辑经历了一场令人眩晕的急剧反转。起初，市场弥漫着对人工智能颠覆性冲击的极度担忧——有观点认为在未来12到18个月内，多达50%的白领工作岗位可能会被彻底抹去。结合当时疲软的初请失业金数据，市场迅速押注经济减速，债券市场迎来疯狂买盘。就在中东战火爆发前的那个周五，美国10年期国债收益率一路下行并收在3.93%的低点。当晚，一位极具知名度的客户甚至给德意志银行发来短信，笃定宣称“债券就是新的黄金，3.93%就是这轮收益率的绝对大顶”。 然而，紧随其后的伊朗冲突与战争彻底击碎了这一剧本。尽管地缘危机本身并不令人意外，但其演变路径却大超预期，直接引发了“战时通胀”（Warflation）担忧，市场甚至开始重新为央行加息定价。戏剧性的是，投资者瞬间将经济放缓、就业走弱的悲观叙事抛诸脑后，转头全面扑向以AI为引擎的增长叙事与科技股狂潮。就在一二月份，市场还在为罗素2000指数领涨、行情广度（Market Breadth）拓宽而欢呼雀跃，甚至戏称所谓的“科技七巨头”（Magnificent Seven）已被抛弃，变成了“四巨头”或“三巨头”；而短短三个月后，记忆短暂的投资者又开始抱怨“市场全靠七只股票在撑着、广度奇差无比”，四处寻找理由试图逆势做空或阻击这轮涨势。 目前市场中最具吸引力、最让人趋之若鹜的信条（Drink the Kool-Aid），依然是相信这场AI驱动的繁荣还能再跑一到两年。传奇对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）近期公开表达了这一立场，并直接将其与1999年互联网泡沫末期的狂热盛况相类比。面对这种极其强势的宏观动能，交易员眼下只有两种选择：要么顺流而上、拥抱泡沫，要么就只能赌它均值回归。 - **核心转折点数据**：在中东局势升级前的周五，美债10年期收益率一度下探至3.93%的低点，随后在通胀预期死灰复燃下迅速逆转。 - **市场情绪反复**：年初市场还在庆祝中小盘罗素指数领涨带来的健康广度，仅过了一个季度，注意力便重新高度浓缩回英伟达等核心巨头身上。 --- ### `12:35` “太空置换”推演：中西方脱钩底色下的重构制造与双边失衡 面对原油暴涨、大宗商品深度短缺、去通胀进程停滞以及英国30年期国债收益率飙至1998年以来最高水平等一系列理应重挫风险偏好的利空，全球主权债券遭遇大举抛售，但风险资产却依旧展现出惊人的韧性。针对这种看似矛盾的宏观乱局，阿迪蒂亚·辛格尔（Aditya Singhal）提出了一个极其深刻的核心分析框架——**“太空置换”思想实验**： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: China-West Decoupling and Supply Chain Dilemma accDescr: Diagram illustrating the structural trade dependencies, capital recycling, and the West's need to rebuild manufacturing. subgraph China["中国及友岸阵营 (债权国)"] direction TB C1["掌控全球55%制造产能<br>钴等关键冶炼达90%-95%"] C2["向西方输出实物商品<br>(如硬件/麦克风)"] C3["积累美元/欧元外汇储备"] C4["升级自研服务业与高端制造<br>(本土旅游/电动车上游)"] end subgraph West["西方阵营 (债务国)"] direction TB W1["服务业输出受限<br>(奢侈品/顶尖教育/软件)"] W2["限制中国购买西方土地与股票"] W3["被迫容忍中国囤积实物大宗商品"] W4["制造业严重空心化<br>缺乏采选冶炼与工程师队伍"] end C2 -->|实物出口| West West -->|纸币支付| C3 C3 -.->|被西方限制购买资产| W2 C3 -->|战略转向| W3 China -->|服务业闭环自研| C4 W4 -->|终极破局路径| Rebuild["从零重建完整工业链条<br>(耗费海量资本与人力)"] ``` 辛格尔指出，未来几年真正重要的宏观母题只有一个：假设将中国及与其结盟的国家放到外太空，西方在制造业与服务业上究竟缺失什么？反之，若把西方放到太空，中国阵营又会缺少什么？ 过去几十年的全球化剧本高度清晰：以现场录音的麦克风为例，其90%的内部原材料直接或间接来自中国；中国占据了全球55%的制造业产能，而在钴（Cobalt）等关键新能源与战略金属精炼领域，这一占比更是高达90%至95%。曾经的资金循环机制是：中国向西方提供廉价商品，换回美元、英镑或欧元。为了消化这些庞大的纸币盈余，中国最理性的选择原本是购买西方的核心土地或上市公司股权，但这些诉求均被西方以国家安全为由回绝。退而求其次，中国选择动用外汇大肆收储未来的核心战略大宗商品，而西方对此默许放行。 与此同时，西方过去试图通过高附加值服务业来平衡收支——向东方出售勃艮第名酒、古驰（Gucci）高端皮具、顶尖高等教育，以及诸如微软Excel等软件服务。然而，如今这堵护城河正在被迅速侵蚀：中国不仅正在将旅游消费内流，更沿着汽车产业等高端价值链一路向上突围，构建自主可控的服务业与技术全栈。 这种逆转将西方逼入了一个极其残酷的现实：如果东方供应链被切断，西方必须在本土从零开始重建整个制造业基础。以钴金属为例，西方不仅要建立起自主的采矿与提炼产能，还必须重建早已断代的冶炼企业与重工业工程师队伍。从宏观底层来看，中国及其盟友是事实上的全球终极债权人，而西方则是深陷赤字的债务人，这种失衡还在持续加剧。美国高官频繁访华的深层核心诉求之一，正是试图缓解并重构这一严峻的经常账户失衡。 --- ### `18:00` 伦敦现场视点：财政主导、“特拉斯2.0”与金融抑制的隐秘平衡 当对话转回本次节目的录制现场伦敦，正值英国地方选举投票夜，主持人抛出焦点问题：从全球宏观与交易台视角来看，英国乃至全球各地的选情到底有多重要？ 奥赞·塔尔曼（Ozan Tarman）指出，选举背后折射出的，是过去两年间在全球范围内愈演愈烈的核心战争——**财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）与国债长端收益率失控的对抗**。无论是在英国还是其他发达经济体，市场最为焦虑的焦点是：10年期、尤其是30年期的超长端主权债券收益率是否会彻底失控，重演昔日特拉斯内阁灾难性的“特拉斯时刻”（Liz Truss moment）？ 为了遏制长端利率狂飙，西方主权国家正在暗中走向典型的“新兴市场化”，即依靠**金融抑制（Financial Repression）**进行风险对冲： - **财政部与央行深度捆绑协同**：打破过去的独立教条，在发债结构上展开紧密合作。 - **发债期限战略转移**：大幅削减10年期、30年期长端国债的净发行量，将融资重压全面转移至超短端的国库券（T-bills）。 - **给长端收益率强行套上缰绳**：哪怕明知过度依赖短债展期存在极高的再融资与利率波动风险，也必须不惜一切代价确保长端基准借贷成本处于可控范围。 塔尔曼回忆起去年夏天（大约在八月份返校季及秋季发债潮来临之前）在一场小范围投资者闭门圆桌上的震撼提问。当时一位顶级核心机构投资者神情严峻地问道：**“如果美国、法国、日本和英国这四大主要经济体，在同一个九月份同时迎来各自的‘特拉斯时刻’，全球金融体系究竟会发生什么？”** 这种对主权债务雪崩与财政信用崩塌的深层恐惧，正是眼下主导长端债券交易与全球流动性格局的终极阴影。 ### `20:00` 英国国债波动与西方政策的“新兴市场化” 回顾英国国债（Gilts）市场的异常波动，那种流动性收缩仅持续了短短四个小时便告平息。如今，市场再度为英国的宏观前景感到兴奋。从资产负债表与外部账户来看，英国具备鲜明的新兴市场特征：其净国际投资头寸（NIIP）偏弱，同时面临严峻的财政赤字与经常账户赤字，这意味着英国必须极力维系海外投资者的信心，因为外部资本是承接其庞大主权债务的关键力量。与此同时，英国地方选举为政局增添了诸多变数，内阁及财政大臣的人选是否会更替、是否会有立场更为激进偏左的官员接管财政部，均悬而未决。然而，就目前的判断而言，“金融压抑”（Financial Repression）依然占据主导地位，英国大概率不会重演当年的特拉斯（Liz Truss）式闪崩危机。不过，这也高度依赖外部环境的配合——特别是伊朗局势必须持续降温，因为不同于特拉斯时期的内部政策失误，眼下的外部地缘政治风险早已远远超出了英国自身的掌控范围。 现场主持人在调侃活动排期时指出，这场宏观对谈的录制节点堪称风险集中爆发的窗口期：英国选举在即、伊朗地缘局势未定，次日还将公布美国非农就业数据（NFP）。针对市场热议的“西方政策新兴市场化”（EMification of Western policymaking），其实际表现因国而异。以英国为例，在经历数轮通胀冲击及原油价格的直接传导后，其国内真实利率已攀升至相当高的水平。这种特征在不少新兴市场屡见不鲜：当一国身为能源净进口国、对外严重依赖商品与制造业进口，而其主要出口支柱却是正面临 AI 全面冲击与替代的服务业时，其外部失衡风险便会急剧扩大。为了应对这一结构性阵痛，国家必须迅速锁定可靠的盟友建立关键供应链与采购渠道，而全球金融市场也正在同步对这套体系的风险溢价进行重新定价。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 结构性外部失衡传导机制 accDescr: 展示能源与制造业进口依赖叠加服务业受AI冲击如何导致经常账户失衡并推高风险溢价 subgraph Inputs["输入端脆弱性"] A["能源依赖: 原油价格传导"] B["商品依赖: 制造业与实物进口"] end subgraph Disruption["核心支柱受挫"] C["服务业出口支柱"] D["AI技术颠覆与重塑"] C --> D end subgraph Impacts["宏观与市场后果"] E["经常账户恶化 / 外部依赖加深"] F["需要盟友保障物资采购"] G["市场重构国家风险溢价"] end Inputs --> E D --> E E --> F E --> G ``` ### `22:30` 全球供应链重组与中国全栈 AI 制造生态的崛起 在探讨中美之间通过谈判平衡经常账户赤字的可行性时，现实情况远比理论推演更为复杂。若站在西方视角反观中国对西方产品与技术的依赖，其实质需求相当有限——除波音和空客的飞机零部件，以及部分农产品进口可能阶段性受惠之外，其他领域并不存在强烈的刚性需求。除非西方决意在本土自下而上重建整套制造业产业链，否则单靠传统的贸易手段几乎无法根本逆转经常账户的失衡格局。 更值得全球宏观投资者警惕的结构性变量在于 AI 产业的竞争格局。西方市场目前高度聚焦于本土科技巨头的资本开支（CapEx）与算力竞赛，但却往往忽视了中国正在形成的平行技术生态。中国在 DeepSeek V4 模型、智谱 GLM-5 系列、华为昇腾集群以及光计算（Optical Compute）和量子计算等底层技术路线上均投入了海量资源。这些布局不仅形成了真正的成本壁垒与效率竞争，更为全球产业链带来了激进的降本效应。当前大多数顶尖工程师资源正高度聚集于该地区，并在庞大资本的强力支撑下迅速演化，这构成了未来最具潜在颠覆性的宏观风险。 与技术现实相呼应的是市场在汇率头寸上的阶段性误判： - **特朗普二度胜选后的共识交易**：在2024年12月至2025年1月期间，华尔街形成了极度一致的交易共识——一方面押注美国10年期国债收益率冲向 5.50%，全线建立美元多头；另一方面普遍大举买入行权价在 7.75 至 8.00 的美元兑离岸人民币（USD/CNH）看涨期权。 - **市场的认知偏差与修正**：然而人民币走势极度坚韧，令几乎所有参与该期权交易的宏观机构预期落空，这也再次佐证了“市场永远是对的”这一教条在群体性狂热面前的脆弱性。 ### `25:00` 日元保卫战：央行的风险平价阵营对决“快钱”做空投机 针对“为何油价和利率双双走高却未能击垮美股”的困惑，外汇与利率市场的真实博弈在日元（JPY）汇率上体现得淋漓尽致。此前在美元兑日元逼近 160 关键心理关口、美国国债持续遭到抛售、霍尔木兹海峡地缘局势扑朔迷离的敏感节点，市场压力曾达到顶点。正如年初所发生的一幕，做市交易员甚至能在柜台上直接听到纽约联储代日本央行进行“汇率检查”（Rate Check）时的咆哮声——官方特意公开向特定大行传达监管机构正在严密监控的警示信号。而近期日本央行（BOJ）则亲自入场干预，其核心目的正是为“风险平价”（Risk Parity）护航。 所谓护航风险平价，本质是通过平抑资产波动率来稳定宏观利率，为市场带来平静。当官方强力干预压低美元兑日元、促使日元走强时，美债收益率随即回落，全球股市进而获得买盘支撑。这就演变成了一场持久的拔河赛：天平的一端是力求抑制波动、维稳资产估值的央行与风险平价阵营；另一端则是企图复刻2022年激进加息行情的“快钱”（Fast Money）对冲基金。这些对冲基金巴不得每周五美国10年期国债（TY）再度抛售 50 个基点，借由拉升跨资产波动率来牟取暴利。普通交易员则置身于两大阵营之间，在流动性与头寸的剧烈拉锯中权衡应对。 ### `26:40` AI 军备竞赛的技术分歧与模型估值逻辑 针对股票市场对 AI 叙事的高度依赖，交易员评估模型与相关标的资产的框架正在发生转变。西方市场的估值逻辑建立在一个核心假设之上：西方主导着更大、更精密的顶层大模型，并面向全球潜在市场（TAM）进行变现；为此，西方科技业必须在未来三到四年内维持天量资本开支（CapEx），进而催生了从核心芯片到次级供应链标的的全方位估值膨胀。 但在底层架构与算力逻辑上，双方的分歧已愈发显著： - **西方追求通用超级智能（AGI）**：西方当前的技术执念在于通过极端暴力堆叠参数来迅速逼近超人类智能。模型规模由 7 万亿参数一路向 15 万亿乃至 25 万亿、50 万亿参数进逼，并全面押注强化学习与自学习架构。 - **中国硬件与生态的快速追赶**：西方普遍认为中国模型仍完全依赖英伟达（NVIDIA）芯片进行训练，但现实中诸如华为的自主算力集群在处理性能上已逐步向 H100 处理器看齐。 - **架构革新与互连形态升级**：除了追求单体巨型模型外，分布式 AI（Distributive AI）正成为关键突破方向。在硬件互连层面，过去依靠英伟达 GPU 配合铜缆直连（Copper Connectors）的架构叙事，正逐步受到光计算、光互联公司（Optical Compute/Optical Firms）的强力挑战，光互联相关概念在过去数月内表现亮眼。 - **终端应用与现实约束**：从最终落地场景来看，市场在未来不大可能同时常态化运行五种不同的同质化基础大模型，应用端终将走向整合与收敛。随着模型实际调用成本与使用率的检验期到来，过高的资本开支与集中的算力估值势必面临现实考量；与此同时，物理世界的具身智能与机器人技术（Robotics）则是另一项必须紧盯的关键变量。 ### `30:00` 机器人革命与中西方制造业的底色 在谈及科技生态与工业能力的竞争时，讨论延伸到了西方技术栈中正在孕育的第二种叙事——以埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的 Optimus 人形机器人为代表的自动化革命。然而，衡量这一愿景不可忽视的核心现实在于：必须时刻审视中国在该领域的实际进展，以及西方在底层制造能力上究竟存在多大差距。正如台上所使用的麦克风一样，其绝大多数甚至全部零部件几乎必然制造于中国。西方在追逐高端概念的同时，中国凭借坚实的工业制造链条，构成了软硬件落地不可替代的物理底座。 ### `30:15` 破除“不可投资论”：中国资产与国债的配置重构 随着实物制造的不可替代性显现，话题切入到机构投资者的投资组合构建：海外客户是否正在重新大举配置中国金融资产？特别是中国国债（CGB），它不仅被越来越多的人视作避险资产，而且展现出了优异的表现与极佳的多元分散效应。针对这一趋势，交易员指出其增长空间十分广阔。市场的心理转变遵循了典型的心理防御周期——从最初的“否认”，到后来的“愤怒”，最终走向了“承认”，因为大家意识到外汇层面的行情列车早已启动。 就在两三年前，当走访新加坡和香港等金融中心时，那里的投资者还充斥着恐惧与笃定，言之凿凿地声称中国“不可投资”（uninvestable）。然而回看当时，如果断言中国真的不可投资，那么依附于其经济腹地的新加坡和香港又何谈未来？如今事实证明这一论调已被证伪。资本重返中国的进程从外汇市场率先破局，但中国股票与中国债券的配置空间依然极为广阔，用形象的比喻来说，“那辆大巴车目前还远没有坐满”，市场上仍有大量未被充分占领的配置机会。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 海外资金对中国资产的心理与配置演变路径 accDescr: 展示海外投资者从最初认定中国不可投资，经过情绪转变，到率先在外汇建仓，并逐步拓展至国债与股票的完整演进路径。 subgraph Mindset["市场心理演进"] direction TB A["否认 (Denial)<br/>认定'中国不可投资'"] --> B["愤怒 (Anger)<br/>错失早期外汇反弹"] B --> C["承认 (Acknowledgement)<br/>接受资产基本面现实"] end subgraph Allocation["资产配置进程"] direction TB D["外汇市场 (FX)<br/>列车已然启动"] --> E["中国国债 (CGB)<br/>发挥避险与分散功能"] E --> F["中国股票 (Equities)<br/>空间广阔，大巴车尚未坐满"] end Mindset --> Allocation ``` ### `30:50` 现场圆满落幕与节目尾声 随着对“空大巴”机会的探讨，本场于 5 月 7 日在伦敦威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）现场录制的宏观策略对谈圆满画上句号。主持人乔·韦森塔尔（Joe Weisenthal）与特雷西·阿洛韦（Tracy Alloway）向德意志银行的奥赞·塔尔曼（Ozan Tarman）和阿迪蒂亚·辛格尔（Aditya Singhal）致以谢意，并在片尾致谢了卡门·罗德里格斯（Carmen Rodriguez）、达希尔·贝内特（Dashiell Bennett）、凯尔·布鲁克斯（Kale Brooks）和凯文·洛萨诺（Kevin Lozano）等制作团队成员。节目引导听众访问彭博官网订阅每日简报、加入官方 Discord 社区展开全天候宏观探讨，并介绍了彭博旗下早间新闻旗舰播客《Bloomberg Daybreak》。 ## Notable quotes > `03:40` 公交车上是空的 — Ozan Tarman > `03:40` 屈指可数，大概只有三到五个人 — Ozan Tarman > `10:00` 债券就是新的黄金，3.93%就是这轮收益率的绝对大顶 — 知名客户（Ozan Tarman引述） > `10:00` 市场全靠七只股票在撑着、广度奇差无比 — Ozan Tarman > `12:35` 假设将中国及与其结盟的国家放到外太空，西方在制造业与服务业上究竟缺失什么？反之，若把西方放到太空，中国阵营又会缺少什么？ — Aditya Singhal > `18:00` 如果美国、法国、日本和英国这四大主要经济体，在同一个九月份同时迎来各自的‘特拉斯时刻’，全球金融体系究竟会发生什么？ — 核心机构投资者（Ozan Tarman引述） > `22:30` 市场永远是对的 — Aditya Singhal > `30:15` 那辆大巴车目前还远没有坐满 — Aditya Singhal ## Mentioned Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Ozan Tarman, Aditya Singhal, Deutsche Bank, Wilton's Music Hall, Jim Reed, Paul Tudor Jones, Liz Truss, Elon Musk, Optimus, DeepSeek V4, GLM-5, 华为昇腾, NVIDIA, H100, Boeing, Airbus, Gucci, Microsoft, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bank of Japan, Al Jazeera, Wall Street Journal, Axios, Truth Social, Carmen Rodriguez, Dashiell Bennett, Kale Brooks, Kevin Lozano, Bloomberg Daybreak, Odd Lots ## Video description <p data-renderer-start-pos="138">It is hard to have a markets conversation that isn't out of date within a minute or two. But we think this one, with Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal of Deutsche Bank, is basically evergreen. This conversation, recorded at our live show at Wilton's Music Hall in London, is all about fundamentals: How Tarman, DB's vice chair of global macro, and Singhal, the firm&rsquo;s head of EM trading across rates, FX and Credit, make sense of conflicting headlines, whether the rally in tech stocks is to be believed, the tug of war between fast money and central bankers, and how traders are evaluating the difference between the AI models coming out of the US and China.</p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="796">Read more:<br><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-16/global-inventory-race-intensifies-in-shadow-of-the-iran-war?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Global Inventory Race Intensifies in Shadow of the Iran War</a><br><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-17/emerging-carry-trade-rebounds-with-real-rand-among-favorites?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Emerging Carry Trade Rebounds, Top Picks Include Real, Rand</a></p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="928">Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a></p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="1100"><a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a><br><strong data-renderer-mark="true">Join the conversation:</strong> <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">discord.gg/oddlots</a></p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p> [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/747e9d28-f7df-4926-bc64-b44e0124705e/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

[3:40] Ozan Tarman: 公交车上是空的 [3:40] Ozan Tarman: 屈指可数，大概只有三到五个人 [10:00] 知名客户（Ozan Tarman引述）: 债券就是新的黄金，3.93%就是这轮收益率的绝对大顶 [10:00] Ozan Tarman: 市场全靠七只股票在撑着、广度奇差无比 [12:35] Aditya Singhal: 假设将中国及与其结盟的国家放到外太空，西方在制造业与服务业上究竟缺失什么？反之，若把西方放到太空，中国阵营又会缺少什么？ [18:00] 核心机构投资者（Ozan Tarman引述）: 如果美国、法国、日本和英国这四大主要经济体，在同一个九月份同时迎来各自的‘特拉斯时刻’，全球金融体系究竟会发生什么？ [22:30] Aditya Singhal: 市场永远是对的 [30:15] Aditya Singhal: 那辆大巴车目前还远没有坐满

[4:15] Ozan Tarman: buses are empty [20:00] The UK relies heavily on foreign capital to finance both its budget deficit and current account deficit. [30:00] Ozan Tarman: denial, then anger, then acknowledgement

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Health care doesn always work great If you ever waited on a refill or couldn schedule an appointment you get it That the kind of stuff Optum is changing They using data and technology to integrate patient care pharmacy and everything else So health care is connected not complicated What that look like Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracey Allaway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. Joe, our live show in London recorded May 7th at Wilton's Music Hall. A lot has happened since then in markets. It's hard to have a markets conversation that, you know, isn't out of date within like a minute or two. But I think this one carries on. I think this one is still relevant. Well, you know, I have to say, I always feel a little anxious about recording markets episodes because of this very phenomenon. But this is true for a live and our recorded shows that by the time it comes out, who knows how much will have changed. This is why you should go to the live show. That's exactly where I was going to go. It actually good to record markets episodes of the live show because it like all right you create an inducement to get people to buy a ticket But again you know with a lot of these things like how traders are digesting this particular moment in time sure the headlines and the prices on the screen change but there are certain principles and frameworks for understanding what's going on that will be sort of useful regardless of what's happening in the meantime. You mentioned frameworks, and that is the perfect framing for this discussion. So we indeed had the perfect guest. We spoke to someone who's been on quite a few times before, one of our favorites for letting us know what the big money is actually thinking about and trading. We spoke with Ozan Tarman. He is, of course, vice chair of Global Macro over at Deutsche Bank. We also spoke to his colleague, someone who hasn't been on the show before, but who has quite a reputation. One of Deutsche Bank's star bond traders. Aditya Singel, he is the head of EM trading across rates, FX and credit at Deutsche Bank. So take a listen. OK, let's start with the obvious question. Lines on the chart keep going up, despite what would seem to be some challenges to the global economy, to put it mildly. Why? First of all even when I walked in I was checking for you guys It wasn like that 15 minutes ago when 20 seconds When one agency claimed that Operation Freedom was back on that President Trump could try to open the hormones by force S&P and oil, S&P didn't like that at all. Oil was surging higher. Then Al Jazeera denied. So we're all calmer again. But bottom line is why we keep going higher, despite everything that Javier and Lorcan said, is because buses are empty. When I say buses are empty, I don't only talk to my portfolio managers, but men on the street, to my college classmates. One of them was like, what do you mean buses are empty? That means investors don't have it. The analogy is a bit like closer to April 2nd, April 9th of last year when we had the big tariff shock. Billboard up. We thought that it would be the end of the year, end of the markets. Then President Trump stepped back. Yeah. And the markets never looked back. A bit similar, coincidence or not. March 31st is the first time he claimed through Wall Street Journal that he would separate the state of Hormuz and the operation, that the two could go separately. None of that happened, but that was the first big breath Marko took. And on April 9th, exactly on the same day, the big first postponement came. He said, we're not going to do anything for two weeks. And since then, Marko's never looked back. [5:00] a historic led by tech, Nasdaq and S&P rally. And you know I talk to a lot of people, a lot of key ladies, guys. Honestly, maybe three, four, five people really believed in this rally since April 1st, April 9th. That's one big part of it, but it can't be all positioning. Also fundamentals, right? Earnings. Yeah. Again, head of sales, one of my legendary researchers, Jim Reed, just today. He was on Bloomberg as well, talking about earnings. In Q4 of last year, just 13% growth. Q1 record is biggest in five years, led by take 24%. And that engine keeps us going. Yeah, the earnings are what they are. So here's something I'm curious. So Ozan came in, and he gave us the latest headlines. Thank you, because I hadn't been looking at my job. Yeah, exactly. He didn't look at his phone for 15 minutes, which might be a record. It's a record. How do traders deal with the market in which there are just the sheer number of headlines? How would you and how do they know what to take seriously? And like yeah what real what not real Like how are they ingesting news So from a trading perspective mostly almost everybody fundamentally five asset classes right So you have a thematic view and your race affects credit equities and commodities And a lot of people are fixated or are mandated for asset class per se, right? So they have no choice but to stick within that kind of regime. And then, of course, if you're a real money investor or a hedge fund or if you are a sell side trader, just depending on how you are positioned, right? It's difficult to get in and out, right? So thematically, you have to take a structural long-term view, see what every asset class is pricing on that particular view, and define an upside-downside kind of scenario. And based on the liability profile you have, and how you define that is the function of the money you have, or what kind of drawdowns are acceptable. You take a particular position, and you let it play out. So in this kind of environment, it's difficult. So what is the upcoming kind of positive news that you can rely on to the market, right, today? If you were to sit here today, you say, okay, so the fact that not much action has happened in the last three to four weeks within the strait means that at some point or the other, the resolution will come. Pakistan is mediating, as we can see. There been enough talks happening So you assume that a resolution should come That what the market is pricing theoretically You also have a situation with Russia which is developing right Russia war which could be positive And then you have the visit the US visit to China which also is their term positive. Now, of course, there's a lot of it isn't the price per se, but fundamentally speaking, as a trader, you position yourself and then you just choose, you know, at some point to close it to the time, get out. But just like just and I that all makes sense to me. But like our traders sitting there with a truth social window open, like the literal like ingestion of news. How do you do it? And just getting the messages from me. Yeah, right. Just kidding. Well, someone needs to make like a motivational poster that says, Lord, give me the confidence of an equity investor trading on an Axios headline. Yeah. Like, I feel like that would that would sell out. So, yes, we have one open. Yeah. But seriously, yeah. Generally, we have no choice. But fundamentally, it's like this, right? So you make a, you see what's, so we had a, if you were to look at the rates market, for example, just as an example, right? There was a Six Sigma event that happened within it. At some point the pricing gets to a level where it doesn make any rational sense Okay So you start to look at that on a more structural basis and you start to ignore the noise in the middle And whether we like it or not we have to operate with that kind of philosophy So you take one side or the other. It's very difficult to trade the headline because it's impossible. Because as of now, you had two conflicting headlines and you can get caught out. So most people have come to that understanding. So you've taken a perspective or a view that either this is going to get resolved or you can believe it's not going to get resolved. There's a way of expressing it within the five asset classes where you might get the most convexity. Similarly, if it gets resolved, there are certain things that actually might work which haven't yet worked. So you take those sides and you just sit and wait. You know, you mentioned irrationality just then, which means we should talk about AI, right? Because all of the stock market rally at this point essentially seems to be a bet on AI. What are you hearing from your clients, Ozan, on how comfortable they feel with this? Well, just two days before the Iran war began, we were in West Palm Beach and Miami with Adichie as well, visiting clients. And then the whole talk of at least that town, but the U.S. in general, was that famous Stringy piece, the other 50 million stamp piece. [10:00] is something big is about to happen, how in 12 to 18 months, 50% of white-collar jobs could be wiped out, what that could mean for rates. That in itself is very, very telling, right? And because of that, and one slow-slow claims number, if you remember US 10 years, that Friday before the bombs came in, closed at 393. And one of my more famous friends' clients sends me a message on that Friday night, bond is the new gold, 393, top tick, close. Then Iran war happens, not that surprising, but of course, how it played out is very, very surprising. Warflation, hikes getting priced in. So people completely pushed aside the slowdown, job growth, labor part of it, and then started completely focusing on the equity, the growth, the AI engine. again if you just go back to January February we were quote-unquote happy because the thing was broadening out it was a rally but it was a rally led by Russell as well would it be Magnificent 4 Magnificent 3 Magnificent 7 was forgotten and now Lord behold some of us thank God have three month memories now now we complaining about oh it all about seven stocks the breakfast tool We just fighting ways to try to fight and wrestle away the rally So back to your question, at the moment, yeah, the Kool-Aid is to believe that this AI run may have another one to two years to go. Paul Tudor Jones, public, one of definitely my more famous French lines today claimed that that's the case and made the 1999 analogy. So either you swim with that or try to fade it. You know, this is the other thing. All right. So we talk about these very worrisome scenarios, the price surge in oil, but very worrisome scenarios about deep shortages in various commodities. So that's one reason to be worried. But then there is this other thing that basically, you know, the disinflation is stalled out if arguably it's going in the other direction rates around the world in you know we're i think you know there was some sort of what was uk 30 year uh the highest since 1998 yeah so again just intuitively you would think these things compound each other and should really take the wind out of the sails of risk appetite and yet so how is it that like even like you know what we see going on and selling of how does um the selling in sovereign bonds mix into this market in very few So let me take this to actually give you a thematic kind of how to think about things right Okay. Just to give a perspective, right? So ultimately, there is only one thematic view that matters for the next few years, right? And that is, if you were to assume you have China and China-aligned countries and you have the West, right? if you were to take China and China-aligned countries, right, and they were in space, what does the West need, theoretically, in both manufacturing and services? And if you were to reverse the roles, and if the West was in space, what does China and China-aligned countries need, both in manufacturing and services? And the reason I'm bringing you to this point is because I want to give a perspective. So what happened, right, in the last many years? So this microphone, for example, right, most of the material in here comes from China, or China-aligned countries, almost 90%, right? Manufacturing capacity of the world is 55% China or China-linked, but some places almost 90% to 95%. Take an example of cobalt, cobalt refining, all in China. Now, in the past, what happened was they would give you this microphone and you would give them dollars or pounds or euros or whatever it is. So they hold that. So China holds that What is the most rational thing for them to do The most rational thing for them to do was to buy your land with that money but you said no then they said i buy your equities you said no to that too then they said what you know what i'm going to buy the commodities that you might need in the future you said fine do it which is what china did for years then here's the interesting thing you said in return let me sell you my services so let me sell you fine wine let me send you the gucci you know more you know phenomenal bags top tier educational services top tier education education and a lot of other things and then also services services whether it's a microsoft excel or whatever it is right sure but now what's happening is you have that side of the world which is also building their own services stack so tourism is now onshore they started building their own cars up the chain value chain so you're getting to a stage where if you expand this thematic view, you in the West have to literally build all of it from ground up. So if you assume China was in space, they can still disrupt the services sector, but they can't disrupt the manufacturing sector theoretically anymore, because you can, you will have to build it all up. So if you want cobalt and if they say no, you have to refine it, mine it, refine it. You need to have companies that refine it. You need to have the engineers that do that work. And fundamentally, that's what... [15:00] The fundamental paradigm of the world is, so when you talk about sovereign debt, or any holding of, or any equity holding, ultimately the creditor is China and China aligned countries. They are the creditors of the West, and we are the debtor. And this is only increasing. So if you believe the wizard, what is the ultimate objective agenda of the visit of the US to China is to balance the current account, to some extent, that's one agenda. And there's, of course, there's certain other aspects to it. 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The sale ends July 31st. Visit Jace that J dot com to learn more and save on peace of mind I want to come back to China versus the U on AI in just a second but I definitely want to also ask this question because we are in London How big a deal are the U.K. elections from your respective purchase, the local elections that are happening tonight? It is important because basically UK and abroad, there is for the past two years, at least a big fight between fiscal dominance, I believe, 10 years, 30 years, more importantly, 30 years around the world. Will they get more out of control since we are in London? Will we have the dear least trust two moments? Or will financial repression mean, meaning emerging market style, Treasury and central banks working more closely together, especially on issuance, issuing less on the long end, more on the short end, taking a risk, but making sure that 10 and 30 years are under the leash. In fact, a very key investor last summer asked in a smaller roundtable what happens if all four of them, this was probably August before back to school September races began, US, France, Japan and UK, if all of them had their trust moments and then September. [20:00] I remember us talking about this. Yes, it happened, but only four hours in the gilt market. That's right. And that was it. I remember that little mini moment. So now there's an excitement again, you know, because UK has a different risk premium, net international investment portfolio, i.e. has a budget deficit and the current account deficit has to be nice to the foreigners because they will buy your, our, our debt. There are question marks on what this local election may mean for the government. Will there be a change there or in the chancellor? Will somebody more to the left come in? All these are under question mark. Famous last words, my feel is for the moment, still this financial repression will win. We won't have the trust moment too. But obviously, we, they will need a little bit of luck for the Iran situation to continue to calm down. Because unlike the trust moment, trust moment one, now all of this is happening for reasons much beyond the UK. Joe, I am impressed that we always manage to schedule these macro conversations for maximum event risk between when we record and when it actually publishes. So we have the UK elections everything happening with Iran and we have non payrolls tomorrow There so much going on and we just apologize in advance This is why people should buy tickets to the event Because if you have to hear this conversation on the podcast feed, who knows, it could be out of date. But those who are here don't have that issue. Is EMification of Western policymaking, is that an apt characterization of it? Setting aside specific, you know, elections here or there. You hear that term amification of, and is that apt? It depends, right? So it's country to country. In this, again, paradigm you have, so let's take UK as an example. Let's elaborate further. The rail rates are reasonably high. The country's gone through a difficult situation. You could see what happened with oil, the pass-through effect, but it's happening pretty much everywhere else in the world. you have a current account which matters mostly in most EM countries including UK you have an input factor of energy and you have an output factor of services effectively that you said so depending on where you are in the world which country depending on who you are if you have a situation where you're an energy importer and your exports are highly dependent on effective services which are getting disrupted courtesy AI if you in trouble Alongside if you are an importer of manufacturing also or goods again you in trouble So this adjustment will happen. So you have to have allies, you have to have people who you do a quick procurement, and that adjustment is what we are seeing effectively. And markets are finding a true balance of risk premium alongside. Well, okay, so on this point, two things you've said, which sound very rational on stage, having a series of allies. I don't know if those are stable. And then also, you know, this aspiration to balance the current account between the U.S. and China. It sounds nice. But like, do you think like, are there actually any real prospects of moving to dial on that kind of thing? So, again, I don't want to comment here. This is in terms of our house view, but I'll give you a general perspective. On the same example, if you were to get west in space and ask China, what does it need from the west? It's not much. Apart from Boeing and Airbus spare parts, if you were to just look at it from that perspective. So, there is a desire and maybe there is they will oblige I do think there is certain things like for example agricultural products that could benefit There are certain aspects But fundamentally unless we choose within the West to build the whole manufacturing stack, it's going to be very difficult to keep this current account balanced. And on top of it, the biggest worry, and again, I'm maybe jumping on this point, is when people talk about the AI stack that the West is investing in, the CapEx stack that the West is investing in, the key is not what the West is doing. The key is to understand what China is doing in it. Understand what they are doing with the deep sea version 4 models, the GLM-5, the Huawei clusters. I can go on with an optical compute. There are quantum computing. There are many more things that they're actually investing a lot in, which effectively becomes a true competition and a cost factor reduction. If there is a risk, that is the risk to watch out for, right? It's not to study what we are doing here, because we will find ways to keep evolving, but you have an ecosystem there which is actually quite well versed and also has a lot of capital behind it. And there was somebody who was quoted, says most of the engineers today actually are in that part of the world. Another thing that the market miscalculated, right? Right after Trump got elected the second time, December 24, January 25, by far, [25:00] Big consensus rate, besides the U.S. 10 years going to 550, you know, everybody being dollar long, was to buy these dollar CNH options, strikes at 775, 8. Everyone I knew was buying dollar CNH options. There you go. Keep going, yeah, yeah. And what happened? It's the stark currency, the dollar over around, CNH. So that shows you, even though some people are really into saying markers are never wrong, you're wrong, that can be very, very wrong itself. So we are all human beings, and certainly that can make markets very wrong itself. One more Asian country that we need to talk about to bring it right to the markets, Japan, right? So to your question, higher oil, higher rates, why doesn't this thing bring down equities? Why are these now? Why is this guy Ozan sending messages, bus is empty, nobody's buying it? It can be quite frustrating, right? Last Thursday, Friday, it almost happened because, you know, it just feels itchy. Dollar yen looked like it would break 160. it looked like US rates would continue to sell off. Hormuz, again, question mark, there wasn't detente. And then just like the rate check off at the beginning of the year, one of my closest friends not on our trading floor but on the sector I had heard this big Irish voice you know this is New York calling on behalf of Bank of Japan I like what going on with this guy And because he was shouting around because they want to make sure that public information, they told those three banks that they called, would let others know that they were watching. Similar, this time around, Fed didn't call, Bank of Japan itself came, and they punted for risk parity. What does that mean? They punted for lower volatility, calmer waters, and stable rates. The moment they push down yen, dollar yen lower, yen stronger, US rates come down, equities got a bit, et cetera, et cetera. So it's always a tug of war. On one side, risk parity camp, mostly central banks trying to keep things calm. And on the other side, sometimes my dear fast money friends looking for more 20 to 22 years, Christmas come early, every Friday, another 50 base points fell off on TY, US 10 years, higher volatility, et cetera, et cetera. And us stay in the middle and try to decide which one is right. Can't you just tell your fast money friends to calm down for a little bit? I do, I do. They usually listen to me. Aditya, I wanna go back to what you were saying about US versus Chinese AI models because if we think about how much the stock market rally is actually dependent on AI at the moment and how much of the AI story is dependent on this idea that like well, the West has these amazing, more sophisticated, albeit more expensive models for which the, you know, TAM is basically the entire world. And you're arguing that actually that's not the case and China's models are perfectly suited for its own needs. Elaborate on that. How are you as a sort of trader evaluating these models? How much of your day basically is now just trying to figure out AI? It's a very, very good question. And the key here is to understand what are you... So currently, there is a very strong narrative. Yes, also a very strong use case. Now, the valuation stack versus a forward earnings kind of multiple, right, if you were to look at it, right, says that there is going to be a huge CapEx investment within the Western stack for the in the next three or four years. And that's what's created this rally within various companies and the second order effect companies. China is doing something similar. It's very clearly said in the West that they're effectively using Nvidia chips. Nvidia is just a company, just to give an example, but just their chips to train the models. In reality now they have Huawei chips which are pretty much parallel or comparable to H100 processors The big problem that the West is not appreciating is that the reason West is investing so much in CapEx is because they want to effectively get to superhuman intelligence very quickly. So almost everybody's saying, OK, you have a model that has 7 trillion parameters. Now we go to 15, maybe at 25, 50, and it becomes self-learning and it's a reinforcement. but the reality is you have things like distributive AI. You have things which is actually being worked out in the West. You have also things which are very different, which is something as simple as quantum computing or I would say optical GPUs, right? That's another concept. Please read about it. So you have currently, there was a narrative in the West where you had GPUs of NVIDIA and you had a copper connector between them. Now you have optical compute firms or optical firms, Effectively, that has run very well in the last many months. So this narrative will remain. Having said that, if you keep an eye on what's going on on the other side of the world, also use case in terms of actual uptick of usage. Because it's not like I'm going to run five different AI models together. I'm going to probably converge to one at some point. It will eventually cause some kind of a problem in the future. The second thing that you have to keep an eye on is also robotics. [30:00] That's the other aspect, which is going to be the second narrative that is actually going to start within the Western stack, which is the Elon Musk revolution of optimists. And again, something to keep an eye on what's happening in China within it versus what's happening in West and how deficient is West on it. You talk about, OK, this microphone that we're talking to almost certainly the majority of it or all of it probably made in China. How much do you see clients or people that you talk to purchasing Chinese financial assets, including Chinese government bonds, which more and more people are talking about, not just a safe haven, but a safe haven that's done well and a diversifier? And how much is that becoming a meaningful part of portfolio construction? It can grow. I mean, already it's happening with FX, but, you know, people first denial, than anger, than acknowledgement, right? They realize that the FX train has moved. To your question, government bonds, Chinese assets, just two three years ago even when I went to Singapore and Hong Kong of the world people were either fearing claiming being very confident that China was uninvestable Yeah, I remember that. And deep inside, I was saying, if China is uninvestable, you know, your future in Singapore and Hong Kong, I turned out to be correct, right? But it turns out it starts with FX, but there is still a lot more room to go in Chinese equities and Chinese bonds. That bus is also not full. Okay. All right. lots of empty buses around. Ozan and Adita, thank you so much for coming on All Thoughts. Really appreciate it. Thank you for listening. That was our conversation recorded live in London on May 7th. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmond Dashiell Bennett at Dashpot Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano And for more OddLots content go to Bloomberg.com slash OddLots. We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash OddLots. And if you enjoy OddLots, if you like it when we do these live shows and want us to come to a city near you, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. Thank you. We'll see you next time. Just write, right on time. Explore more at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. 4certain. Get the news you need in just 15 minutes. 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