Quadir Launches Long Activist Fund Target on South Korean Equities

Quadir推出瞄准韩国股市的多头激进基金 Fahmi Quadir正在进军韩国的多头激进策略，因为2021年后的市场动能及机构支持减少削弱了做空回报，而韩国的治理改革提供了难得的价值释放催化剂。 在传统市场机制和监管执法面临结构性崩溃的背景下，Fahmi Quadir反思了做空者面临的生存挑战。她详细介绍了自己过去的法务调查，包括追踪洗钱活动和刑事法庭案卷以揭露Wirecard的致命欺诈。从纯做空策略转型之际，Quadir透露了其设立瞄准韩国股市的多头激进基金的新策略，旨在借助该国全面的公司治理改革以及机构转向反对破坏价值的控股结构之契机。 Safkhet Capital 创始人 Fahmi Quadir（绰号“刺客”）指出，在做空机构面临生存危机的“欺诈黄金时代”，基本面研究难以迅速打破市场动量，导致做空者被迫转向短周期因子投资。 (5:00) 美国家庭偿债成本攀升至收入的 11%，叠加大选前民粹政治对医疗暴利报销的审查，消费信贷高杠杆企业与特定医疗公司正成为核心做空目标。 (10:00) Quadir 警示当前 AI 生态系统的循环融资模式类似于 1920 年代缺乏透明度的公用事业控股公司，正通过不透明的资本流制造人为需求。 (15:00) 作为职业生涯的首次做多转向，Quadir 正推出一只针对韩国市场的长期股东维权基金，利用韩国公司法改革、财阀第三代接班以及针对破净股的监管压力释放被低估的企业价值。 (24:40)

Safkhet Capital founder Fahmi Quadir argues that traditional short-selling research has been compromised by passive momentum and weak regulatory enforcement, prompting her to adapt her short strategy while launching her career's first long activist fund in South Korea. Erosion of Informational Alpha and Short-Selling Mechanics (5:00) Institutional backing for dedicated short sellers has fallen sharply since the 2008 financial crisis, intensified by allocator aversion to short concentration following the 2021 GameStop trading surge. Quadir notes that deep fundamental research no longer drives price discovery on historical timelines because sustained momentum often overshadows corporate misconduct. Traditional mechanisms such as regulatory whistleblowing have largely stalled, with Quadir highlighting that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement actions declined roughly 26% between 2023 and 2024. To adapt to what she describes as a 'golden age of fraud,' Safkhet Capital has shifted away from relying on rapid regulatory intervention. The firm now acts more like a factor investor by managing smaller profit windows, tracking fundamental corporate earnings deterioration, and waiting for established corporate narratives to crack before initiating short positions during drawdowns. Vulnerabilities in Consumers, Healthcare, and Circular AI Financing (10:00) Quadir identifies structural fragility in the U.S. consumer base, characterized by an economic divide where older demographics maintain stability while younger cohorts face mounting student debt, rising unemployment, and wealth disparity. Although overall household debt hovers near 80% of income, debt servicing has reached 11% of income. Safkhet targets consumer-adjacent companies requiring external financing alongside levered private equity roll-ups. She also shorts healthcare businesses dependent on aggressive pricing and reimbursement, anticipating pressure from populist political pushback. Looking across corporate balance sheets, Quadir warns that structural operational downturns invariably push management toward financial engineering. She compares current private credit opacity and circular artificial intelligence financing structures to the layered utility holding companies of the 1920s, which used opaque structures to recycle cash flows and manufacture artificial demand. She anticipates that an eventual public offering by OpenAI could act as a catalyst forcing transparency into AI revenue flows. Narrative Dependency and Behavioral Breakdowns in Fraud (20:00) When analyzing terminal corporate fraud, Quadir emphasizes distinguishing between companies that employ narratives to describe economics and those that use narratives to explain away operational failures. Identifying systemic fraud requires assessing how management responds to structural stress—whether executives accept transparent repricing or resort to accounting manipulation—alongside tracking external, psychological breaking points. During her campaign against German payment processor Wirecard, Safkhet focused on the company's U.S. dollar money-laundering operations rather than solely examining Asian accounting records. In late March 2020, Quadir's team tracked an unsealed arrest warrant in the Southern District of New York targeting a key U.S. associate of Wirecard co-founder Jan Marsalek. Quadir argues this legal pressure precipitated an operational and psychological unraveling among leadership, which preceded the revelation of $2 billion in missing cash and the firm's collapse. Pivoting to Shareholder Activism in South Korea (24:40) Following South Korea's November 2023 short-selling ban, Quadir decided to launch a long shareholder activism fund, marking the first time in her career she has taken long positions. She contends this shift applies her forensic skill set constructively in a market undergoing structural governance modernization. While South Korea is a sophisticated technology power, it operates with emerging-market dynamics where corporate and political leaders face intense scrutiny driven by the cultural priority of saving face (*chemin*). Quadir focuses on legacy family-run conglomerates (*chaebols*), which historically used complex transactions to depress share valuations and minimize inheritance tax liabilities. She sees value opening up due to recent corporate code amendments establishing directors' explicit fiduciary duties to minority shareholders, regulatory plans to 'name and shame' KOSPI companies trading below book value, and a younger generation of chaebol executives who prioritize equity valuations over legacy tax-avoidance tactics. Quadir maintains that holding bad actors accountable remains central to capital markets, but changing Western market structures have required her to adapt her short strategy toward earnings deterioration while directing investigative activist capital into South Korea's ongoing corporate governance reforms.

Safkhet Capital创始人Fahmi Quadir指出，在动量主导与监管行动放缓的市场环境下，纯做空机构面临严重的生存危机，必须转向依靠财务基本面恶化与管理层心理拐点生存；与此同时，她首次转向长仓策略，拟利用韩国公司治理改革契机通过股东维权释放折价资产价值。 市场动量主导与做空机构的生存危机 (5:00) Quadir回顾其11年行业经验指出，自2008年金融危机以来，机构资金已从偏空策略转向市场中性策略，并在2021年GameStop散户狂潮后对空头集中度风险产生极度担忧，导致Jim Chanos等资深做空者相继关闭对冲基金。Quadir坦言Safkhet Capital仅凭耐心的支持者勉强维持运转。她认为当前市场处于“造假的黄金时代”，但深度研究所带来的信息超额收益已无法像过去那样有效击破市场上涨动量并促进价格发现，投资者往往在资产上涨趋势中选择性忽视公司欺诈。 由于监管机构响应迟滞且执法力度减弱——Quadir引述数据称SEC执法行动在2023年至2024年间下降了约26%——做空者难以继续依赖监管告发或长期催化剂。Safkhet Capital被迫采取类似因子投资的自保策略：在企业既有叙事出现实质破裂、底层盈利明确恶化后才建立空头头寸，通过捕捉更狭窄的利润窗口并持续去风险化以应对极端市场动量。 造假识别机制与Wirecard崩溃拐点 (20:00) 在做空标的筛选上，Quadir强调不能单纯依赖跟踪劣质管理人员，而应警惕企业对叙事的依赖方式。健康企业利用叙事解释其经济效益，而问题企业则利用叙事掩盖其商业缺陷。Quadir指出，宏观下行与财务欺诈往往高度重合：当核心业务面临结构性衰退或单元经济模型损坏时，管理层几乎必然借由金融工程和会计花招粉饰基本面，举债收购却无法创造真实回报的公司属于确定性最高的做空标的。 此外，管理层的心理压力拐点是判断系统性造假全面破裂的核心指标。Quadir以做空德国支付巨头Wirecard为例说明，当媒体聚焦于其亚洲业务的会计违规时，Safkhet Capital深入追踪了Wirecard在美国的洗钱运作网络及其美元业务关键操盘人。2020年3月下旬，其团队在纽约南区联邦法院案卷中发现针对该操盘人的逮捕令，而该操盘人是Wirecard联合创始人Jan Marsalek的密友。外部司法打击导致管理层发生心理崩溃，数周后Marsalek行为完全失常，随后公司账目被曝遗漏20亿美元现金并迅速宣告破产。 消费者债务分化与AI循环融资黑箱 (10:00) 在宏观与行业维度，Quadir指出美国消费领域正显现严重分化。尽管表面总体数据维持稳定，但美国家庭债务已达收入的80%，债务偿还成本升至收入的11%，背负学生贷款的年轻群体负担尤为沉重。这造就了双轨经济结构：年长一代扮演稳定锚，而年轻一代面临失业与债务攀升。Safkhet Capital据此重点做空高融资需求的消费相关企业与杠杆并购整合平台，并布局医疗行业做空，认为依赖价格欺诈和激进报销模式的公司必将在民粹政治压力下遭遇监管反噬。 针对快速膨胀的私募信贷与人工智能投资热潮，Quadir将其比作1920年代美国公用事业与电气化控股公司泡沫。她分析指出，当年的控股公司通过层叠且不透明的杠杆结构循环现金流并制造虚假需求，当前AI生态圈内部的交易与循环融资安排同样在信息披露隐秘的“黑箱”中人为制造需求。Quadir预测，未来OpenAI的潜在首次公开募股（IPO）可能成为市场的关键信息催化剂，迫使投资者直面实际收入流向图并清算过度虚高的估值。 战略转向：利用韩国治理改革开展长仓维权 (24:40) Quadir宣布将启动一只聚焦韩国股市的激进股东长仓基金，为其职业生涯首次建立做多头寸。她明确表示这并非空头举旗认输，而是在西方做空环境恶化之际最大化运用自身调查能力的策略调整。韩国在2023年11月颁布做空禁令，促使她注意到该国正在发生的结构性变革。Quadir指出，韩国虽是全球制造业与半导体强国，但资本市场长期具有新兴市场特征；与此同时，韩国社会在“体面”（chemin，即声誉）文化驱使下对体制问责有着极强诉求，多数历任总统与财阀负责人均曾面临调查或监禁。 针对长期困扰韩国股市的财阀治理弊端，Quadir分析控股家族历史上通过复杂关联交易刻意压低股价以规避巨额遗产税，属于“反向造假”。近期韩国将董事对股东的信义义务写入公司法，监管机构拟对市净率低于1倍的企业推行“点名羞辱”机制，加之重视资本运作的第三代继承人接班，治理机制迎来重塑。Quadir选择避开Samsung等半导体巨头，转而锁定被市场忽视、拥有丰富资产却因遗留治理结构而遭受严重估值折价的公司，试图通过积极维权释放企业价值。 Quadir从纯粹的做空者跨界至海外长仓激进投资，展现了做空机构在监管放缓与做空机制受限下的战术迁徙。然而，该维权策略能否成功释放韩国企业的潜在价值，根本上取决于韩国公司法改革的执行刚性，以及激进股东能否实质化解财阀家族根深蒂固的避税动机与控制权结构。

## Background 本期节目由彭博社（Bloomberg）旗下的知名播客《Odd Lots》于2026年5月22日在Wilton's Music Hall现场录制并发布。节目简介指出，曾因成功做空Wirecard和Valeant而被称为“刺客”的Safkhet Capital创始人兼CIO法赫米·卡迪尔（Fahmi Quadir）做客现场，畅谈做空者在当今“造假黄金时代”艰难求生的现实，并首度透露她破天荒地开始在表现亮眼的韩国市场战略性布局做多仓位。 ## TL;DR 在美股长牛与做空机构遭遇资金撤离的生存寒冬中，纯空头基金经理法赫米·卡迪尔拆解了做空逻辑的演变——在流动性盲目追逐动量、监管执法断崖式下跌的背景下，传统做空工具失灵，必须依靠顺应动量并抓住企业叙事破灭的拐点。她以亲历的Wirecard洗钱丑闻为例，指出终极做空需要摸透管理层心理并打击其致命命门，同时警示了当前高杠杆消费、医疗体制暴利以及类似1920年代公用事业泡沫的AI闭环内循环融资风险。出人意料的是，这位坚定的“刺客”宣布将首次进军多头领域，利用其识破造假的能力锁定韩国财阀为了避税而刻意压低估值的“反向造假”资产，借力韩国第三代掌门人交接与监管治理改革来释放长期被折价的股东价值。 ## Atmosphere & style 伦敦音乐厅的现场录制赋予了对话极为鲜活且充满张力的剧场感，主持人的机智风趣与卡迪尔冷静、果决甚至带着一丝冷酷的言谈形成了鲜明反差。卡迪尔叙事极为锋利，从回忆曼哈顿街头被盯梢、Wirecard操盘手醉倒打滚的惊险内幕，到直斥市场“金融虚无主义”的义愤，展现出调查记者般的执着与市场清道夫的道德自负。整场对谈既有对纯空头沦为“濒危物种”的苍凉反思，又有转型长线积极主义者开辟韩国新战场的勃勃雄心，情绪跌宕起伏且充满思想碰撞的火花。 ## Bulletin - `24:45` 知名做空机构 Safkhet Capital 创始人法赫米·卡迪尔宣布首次打破纯做空限制，筹备新基金进军韩国市场并展开长线股东积极主义多头投资。 - `05:00` 卡迪尔指出做空基金正沦为“濒危物种”，受长期牛市与 2021 年 Meme 股狂潮冲击，机构资金几乎不再配置纯空头策略，导致商业模式难以为继。 - `15:00` 面对 AI 领域的“循环交易”与虚构需求，卡迪尔认为这与 1920 年代公用事业多层控股泡沫如出一辙，未来 OpenAI 的招股书披露或将成为刺破泡沫的关键催化剂。 - `30:00` 韩国财阀此前为规避高达 50% 至 60% 的遗产税而采用复杂架构“反向造假”压低估值，随着第三代掌门人上位及监管倒逼，历史折价迎来价值重塑契机。 ## Key takeaways - `00:00` 做空机制具有类似调查记者的社会纠错功能，在提供价格发现与双向流动性的同时，做空者往往需要承受来自造假公司的剧烈人身威胁与外部诉讼反扑。 - `03:08` Safkhet Capital 创立之初确立了极端纯粹的定位，契约明确禁止方向性做多与对冲，要求每个高确信度空头仓位必须百分之百精准。 - `05:00` 机构资产配置资金（allocators）在 2021 年散户轧空潮后视集中空头仓位为洪水猛兽，纯空头策略基金在商业运营层面陷入极端生存寒冬。 - `06:50` 在市场对造假视而不见的“欺诈黄金时代”，传统吹哨人逻辑与基本面做空失效，空头被迫转向等待业绩或叙事破裂（Narrative Break），顺应下跌动量交易。 - `10:00` 美国家庭债务占收入比达 80%、债务偿付成本升至 11%，代际财富撕裂导致年轻群体承压，高杠杆可选消费与面临民粹监管风暴的医疗保健公司成为做空焦点。 - `12:30` 企业在面临底层结构性衰退时普遍会饮鸩止渴，借助资产证券化延后坏账确认，并通过并购和财务工程粉饰财报，最终走向不可避免的叙事崩塌。 - `15:00` 当代 AI 巨头通过生态内闭环相互注资、采购与确认收入，复刻了 1920 年代电气化公用事业金字塔控股的资本自我空转与黑箱操作模式。 - `18:00` 做空者绝非看空宏观大盘的末日论者，在官方监管执法行动锐减的背景下，做空调查承担了对抗金融虚无主义、维护市场化公司治理“最后清道夫”的职责。 - `20:00` 发掘空头标的不仅需要追踪有前科的劣迹人员，更需要洞察顶层操盘手的心理承受极限；以 Wirecard 案为例，纽约检方逮捕其核心洗钱掮客直接导致了高管心理防线瓦解。 - `24:45` 卡迪尔转战韩国市场并非做空者的缴械投降，而是试图将其识破财务扭曲的专业能力迁移至渴求公司治理改革与股东价值纠偏的全新土壤。 - `27:30` 韩国引入保护全体股东权益的董事会信托义务，结合深厚的“体面（chemyeon）”社会文化，推动财阀家族逐步将社会声誉与公司股价及股东回报深度绑定。 - `30:00` 韩国市场的独特性在于存在长期的“反向造假”现象，财阀家族刻意压低资产估值以规避代际遗产税，这与做空者擅长穿透财务失真的核心能力圈完美契合。 - `30:00` 韩国监管当局推行“企业价值提升计划”，对市净率长期破净（P/B < 1）的企业施加公开点名惩戒，倒逼受西方教育的新一代财阀掌门人释放真实股东价值。 - `32:30` 韩国散户并非全是由炒作 Meme 股和三倍杠杆 ETF 构成的激进赌徒，因治理缺陷而长期离场的严肃长线价值投资者正在回流本土股市，成为多头策略的增量支撑。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` 现场开场与做空者的独特生态 在伦敦威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）录制的本期《Odd Lots》现场播客中，主持人 Tracy Alloway 与 Joe Weisenthal 探讨了做空者在金融市场中所扮演的特殊角色。Tracy 坦言自己对做空者一直抱有好感，因为做空的工作在很多方面非常接近调查记者——他们深入挖掘特定公司背后隐秘的故事，并将其彻底公之于众。Joe 对此表示赞同，指出纵观过去数十年的市场历史，特别是美股市场，基本趋势是一路走牛，只要无脑赌“股价上涨”就能赚到大钱。因此，要选择站在对立面、去思考如何通过股票下跌来赚钱，必须具备一种非常鲜明甚至独特的性格特质。 做空不仅是一种交易策略，更是市场不可或缺的纠错机制。Joe 提到，做空机构不仅提供了至关重要的价格发现功能，而且他们往往需要承担巨大的外部压力甚至人身威胁。例如，本次请到的嘉宾在做空德国支付巨头 Wirecard 时，就曾遭遇过极为激烈的反扑，甚至在曼哈顿街头被盯梢与袭击。此外，本期节目还带来了一个重磅新闻：这位以极致做空闻名的基金经理，有史以来第一次开始布局多头仓位，而她选择进军的正是当下极度火热的韩国市场。 - **做空与记者的契合点**：依靠深入的基本面挖掘与事实调查，揭露被华尔街多头或造假管理层掩盖的企业真相。 - **做空者的社会功能**：提供双向流动性与真实的价格发现，防止资本市场陷入“所有人一边倒做多”的系统性泡沫。 --- ### `03:08` “刺客”绰号的起源与 Safkhet Capital 的纯空头定位 本期嘉宾是 Safkhet Capital 的创始人兼首席投资官（CIO）法赫米·卡迪尔（Fahmi Quadir）。在投资界，她因成功做空 Valeant 制药和 Wirecard 两大巨头而一战成名，甚至多次出现在 Netflix 商业犯罪纪录片中，被冠以极具威慑力的称号——“刺客”（The Assassin）。谈及这个绰号，卡迪尔在台上揭秘了一个鲜为人知的小故事：这个外号其实早在她名扬华尔街之前就诞生了。当时她初出茅庐，是一个完全籍籍无名的年轻人，为了将她撰写的研究报告和分析分发给其他做空同行与投资者，同时避免报告受到年轻、资历或性别的先入为主偏见，另一位熟知她底细的做空老手便提议：“就叫她‘刺客’吧。”这个不带性别与年龄色彩的代号从此便伴随她至今。 卡迪尔在 2018 年创立了 Safkhet Capital。她介绍，这家对冲基金从诞生之初就确立了极为纯粹且极端的定位——专注于高确信度的做空（high conviction shorting）。在基金的设计与授权契约中，他们完全只持有空头头寸，没有任何方向性的多头仓位，也不进行任何形式的常规对冲。卡迪尔直言：“根据基金合同的约束，我们根本不允许进行任何方向性做多，没有任何对冲手段。这就意味着，我们建仓的每一个仓位都必须百分之百绝对正确。” --- ### `05:00` 做空机构的生存寒冬与机构资金的退潮 当谈及做空基金目前的客户需求与行业现状时，主持人指出做空者似乎正在沦为华尔街的“濒危物种”。正如做空大师吉姆·查诺斯（Jim Chanos）因市场上无人再愿意做空而关闭对冲基金并转型为家族办公室一样，整个行业正面临结构性危机。卡迪尔已经在做空领域摸爬滚打了 11 年，亲历了行业的多轮兴衰与洗牌。她回顾道，做空行业从来就没有好走的路。2008 年全球金融危机（GFC）之后，机构配置资金（allocators）一度对空头偏向基金（short bias funds）产生过浓厚兴趣，催生了一批大型做空基金；然而，随着美股进入多年大牛市，长期跑输大盘的表现让这批机构资金逐渐丧失耐心。 到卡迪尔 2018 年创办 Safkhet Capital 时，机构对纯空头基金的资助兴趣已经所剩无几。尽管资方口头上依然相信做空能产生超额收益（Alpha），但实际资产配置却全面倒向了市场中性（Market Neutral）策略。到了 2021 年 GameStop 散户抱团轧空狂潮爆发后，重仓持有高确信度的空头仓位更被资方视作洪水猛兽。卡迪尔无奈地表示： > “哪怕你是一个从未碰过 GameStop 或任何散户抱团股（Meme stocks）的做空者，资产配置机构也根本不在乎，他们看到的只是空头高度集中带来的毁灭性风险。我们走到了一步，运营一只纯做空基金在商业上已经毫无逻辑可言，因为再也没有人愿意付钱让你去这么做了。” --- ### `06:50` 造假黄金时代的认知危机与交易进化 面对这种严苛的市场生态，卡迪尔坦言自己能挺到今天全凭“侥幸生存”（by the skin of my teeth），幸运的是她的早期投资人给予了她极大的自由度与信任。然而，自 2021 年以来，她经历了深刻的“存在主义危机”：在一个前所未有的“造假黄金时代”（golden age of fraud），做空的真正价值究竟是什么？ 卡迪尔指出，按传统逻辑，做空者提供的“信息超额收益”（informational alpha）应该推动市场的价格发现，但如今这种机制几乎失灵了。市场充斥着欺诈与套利故事，但流动性和动量资金往往选择对造假视而不见，只顾盲目推高股价。因此，做空者被迫像普通因子投资者一样，开始追逐动量（momentum），在极窄的时间窗口内寻找获利并降低风险的契机。 在实操战术上，做空的打法已经发生质的变化： - **传统做空工具失灵**：以往做空者可以在建立高确信度后长期持有小幅底仓，逐步等待催化剂发酵，或者向监管机构吹哨揭发财务造假；但如今监管渠道与人脉发生变动，这些手段的效果大不如前。 - **等待叙事破裂（Narrative Break）**：不能在泡沫正盛时逆势硬抗，而必须等待基本面恶化出现蛛丝马迹（尤其是财报季的业绩不及预期）。 - **顺势在下跌途中做空**：真正的暴利来自于逻辑兑现且动量转向空头之时；在所有人蜂拥争夺逃生通道时，一边加大做空仓位，一边在下跌放量中顺势平仓回补。 - **当前重点挖掘领域**：在全市场都被人工智能（AI）狂热吸引之际，Safkhet Capital 将目光集中在承压的消费者领域（Consumer），从中寻找叙事即将破裂的做空目标。 ### `10:00` 承压的消费者与“民粹时代”的做空主题 尽管表面的宏观就业数据尚未亮起红灯，但底层消费者的真实处境已经极度紧绷。目前美国家庭债务已攀升至收入的80%，而更为致命的指标是债务偿付成本——该比例已占到收入的11%，且在背负沉重学生贷款的家庭中更为悬殊。这种压力在代际之间撕开了一道深不见底的裂痕：老一代群体凭借资产积累成为支撑经济的“稳定锚”，而年轻一代则在失业威胁、高额负债与代际财富鸿沟中苦苦挣扎。这种分化正在重塑传统耐用品消费周期的运行逻辑，也促使法赫米·卡迪尔（Fahmi Quadir）将目光聚焦于那些资金需求庞大、高度依赖消费者的衍生业务，特别是美国市场上屡见不鲜的高杠杆整合（levered roll-ups）类可选消费企业。 在中期维度上，医疗保健行业构成了另一个核心做空赛道。在卡迪尔看来，当下的市场不仅处于“欺诈的黄金时代”，更置身于“民粹主义时代”。围绕医保报销机制、高昂护理成本以及美国医疗体制的系统性缺陷，公众与政界的审视正在全面收紧，并将不可避免地成为未来中期选举乃至总统大选的核心议题。过去两年里，多头投资者普遍押注于“去监管化”叙事，但在做空者眼中，这种盲目追捧本质上是一种“故意视而不见（willful blindness）”。在宽松监管下看似繁荣的商业模式，其底层逻辑几乎完全建立在掠夺消费者和哄抬物价（price gouging）之上，而在日益升温的民粹政治风暴中，这种依赖剥削的盈利模式终将无以为继。 - **家庭杠杆指标**：美国家庭债务占收入比重达80%，债务偿付支出占收入比升至11%，年轻负债群体的现金流压力呈几何级数放大。 - **做空方向聚焦**：重度依赖外部融资的高杠杆消费整合项目、面临定价审查与报销制度重构的医疗保健机构。 --- ### `12:30` 基本面崩塌与财务工程的交织 当被问及“基本面恶化”与“财务造假”是否属于截然不同的交易逻辑时，卡迪尔指出两者往往在终点合流：欺诈从来都不是一门好生意，而盘剥消费者同样不可能建立持久的商业模式。消费信贷板块便是最典型的缩影——尽管相关股票近期涨幅亮眼，但若穿透到底层资产及其实体证券化（securitization）表现，违约与坏账的真实风险早已暗流涌动，只是损失确认被刻意大幅滞后。许多在监管真空中靠价格欺诈苟延残喘的公司，正是因为主营业务遭遇了不可逆的结构性危机，才被迫选择饮鸩止渴。 当一家企业面临不可逆转的结构性衰退时，管理层几乎必然会诉诸财务工程（financial engineering）来粉饰残局，试图掩盖基本面的迅速恶化。在当前多头情绪依然亢奋的市场环境中，卡迪尔认为最稳妥的做空标的，恰恰是那些“叙事已经破裂”但仍在挣扎的公司——哪怕它们试图通过连续并购来编造业务转型的新故事，只要底层的真实商业逻辑无法自圆其说、基本面仍在持续恶化，空头就可以坚定地持仓并静待估值均值回归。谈及私募信贷（Private Credit）中频繁爆出、被摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）戏称为“厨房里的蟑螂”的个别暴雷事件，卡迪尔表示虽然私募信贷并非其自上而下的核心做空主题，但其与终端消费企业的信贷交叉敞口，正暴露出越来越明显的脆弱性。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 业务衰退向财务工程演变路径 accDescr: 展示企业从面临结构性危机到采取剥削策略，最终走向财务掩盖与叙事破灭的全过程 subgraph 根源阶段 ["底层结构性危机"] A["核心业务结构性衰退"] --> B["依靠价格欺诈 / 剥削消费者维持表象"] end subgraph 掩盖阶段 ["财务工程与叙事重塑"] B --> C["推迟坏账与损失确认<br/>(资产证券化延时)"] C --> D["依赖财务工程粉饰财报 / 盲目并购扩张"] end subgraph 终局阶段 ["做空破局点"] D --> E["真实经济效益脱节<br/>叙事逻辑彻底断裂"] E --> F["确定性极高的高胜率空头标的"] end ``` --- ### `15:00` 1920年代公用事业泡沫重现与AI循环融资 在剖析当下市场的虚假繁荣时，卡迪尔并未照搬常见的互联网泡沫比喻，而是将历史视线拉回至一个世纪前的1920年代——那个无线电、公用事业与全面电气化狂飙突进的年代。当时公用事业控股公司构建了极为复杂的金字塔式股权架构，层层嵌套融资，资金与现金流在各个母子公司之间来回回转倒手，外人根本无从窥探底层的真实资产质量与实际现金流，形成了一个彻头彻尾的黑箱。 这一历史剧本如今正在人工智能（AI）领域的“循环交易（circular deals）”中精准重演。巨额资本在生态联盟内部相互注资、采购与确认收入，这种隐秘的内循环在很大程度上“人造了需求”，而所谓的繁荣不过是资本自我空转制造的幻象。卡迪尔认为，未来市场最关键的信息催化剂（informational catalyst）或许是OpenAI的首次公开募股（IPO）——无论它何时发生，一旦招股说明书将真实的财务脉络、关联交易与资金流向彻底公之于众，投资者将被迫正视他们此前为这些“虚构需求”所支付的离谱估值，进而引发整个人工智能赛道乃至整个市场的剧烈价值重估。 - **历史镜像比照**：1920年代电气化浪潮中的多层公用事业控股公司体系 vs 当代AI巨头通过关联投资与交叉购买构筑的闭环资金池。 - **潜在重估拐点**：OpenAI提交招股书并挂牌上市的历史时刻，有望成为刺破AI内循环需求泡沫的透明度转折点。 --- ### `18:00` 做空者的道德防线：抵抗“金融虚无主义”与监管缺位 针对外界普遍认为空头天生就是“末日论者（perma-bears）”的刻板印象，卡迪尔直言这是一种严重的认知混淆。绝大多数空头并非看空整个宏观大盘，甚至不少同行在多头端会激进地追逐高投机性、动量驱动的成长资产，许多基金仅仅是将做空作为对冲工具，整体头寸依然保持净多头。但就其个人而言，做空的深层动力在于找出系统中运转失灵、出现断裂的阴暗角落。 在这个欺诈横行、充斥着投机钻营（age of grift）的时代，市场沉浸在对金钱和短期收益的狂热追逐中，自愿对显而易见的造假与违规视而不见。卡迪尔将做空视为一种抗争手段，旨在“推回那股滑向金融虚无主义（financial nihilism）的不道德漂移”。由于规章制度名存实亡、监管执法力度断崖式下滑，做空机构被迫成为了市场上极其罕见、甚至可以说仅存的基于市场机制的企业治理仲裁者。 - **空头的非悲观属性**：做空倾向与宏观悲观情绪不能划等号，空头基金普遍持有大量净多头风险敞口。 - **做空的核心价值**：在资本狂欢与欺诈蔓延时，充当市场化公司治理的“最后清道夫”。 - **执法真空现实**：美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的执法行动数量在2023至2024年间骤降约26%，官方监管的缺位进一步放大了民间做空调查的必要性。 ### `20:00` 做空的核心逻辑：识别叙事陷阱与管理层的心理崩溃点 在谈及监管环境时，法赫米·卡迪尔（Fahmi Quadir）指出，监管执法往往具有极强的顺周期性。这并非取决于某一届政府的更替，而是因为没有任何监管机构愿意横亘在像“人工智能（AI）热潮”这样庞大的时代浪潮之前去泼冷水；人们往往总是在泡沫破灭的余波中才恍然大悟。主持人随后提出一个经典问题：发掘优质空头标的的“秘诀”究竟是什么？主持人提到曾有一位未曾上过节目的对冲基金经理分享其策略——“紧盯那些劣迹斑斑的人（follow the bad people）”，因为这类坏人若没有入狱，就会流窜到下一家公司，往往会把灾难原样复制过去。 卡迪尔对此回应，发掘空头绝不可能只靠单一招式。追踪不良人员固然关键，资方的质量（究竟是谁在为这家企业输血）同样致命。然而在当下的市场环境下，最需要警惕的是对“叙事”（narratives）的过度依赖。她犀利地区分了两类企业：健康的企业是用叙事来阐明其真实的底层经济逻辑，而可疑或走向衰亡的企业则是用宏大的叙事来掩盖、粉饰其千疮百孔的财务现实。她的基金通常会聚焦于那些面临结构性压力的行业，因为外部压力正是检验管理层治理能力与道德底线的试金石——当重压临头，管理层究竟会诉诸财务工程、会计欺诈来瞒天过海，还是选择坦诚面对问题并接受市场重估？ 更深层次的突破口在于心理行为分析。对于那些自上而下、烂到根里的系统性终极财务造假（terminal fraud），做空者必须彻底摸透顶层操盘手的思维模式，理解压在他们身上的真正负荷是什么。在许多情况下，真正击垮他们的诱因根本不是股价本身的波动，而是当整座纸牌屋开始摇摇欲坠时外界施加的致命要素。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 终极财务造假破局路径图 accDescr: 展示从外部结构性压力到管理层心理崩溃导致骗局败露的传导机制 subgraph ExtPressure ["外部真实压力"] A["行业与业务承受结构性重压"] --> B{"管理层应对方式"} end subgraph Divergence ["企业分化路径"] B -- "健康企业" --> C["坦诚问题，接受市场重估"] B -- "造假企业" --> D["用宏大叙事掩盖财务恶化<br/>诉诸会计造假与洗钱通道"] end subgraph Collapse ["致命破局点"] D --> E["司法与外围资金链收紧<br/>（如司法部起诉/关键中间人落网）"] E --> F["管理层心理彻底崩溃<br/>（行为失控与资金链断裂）"] F --> G["纸牌屋瓦解，企业破产"] end ``` 卡迪尔以轰动欧洲的 Wirecard 欺诈案为例剖析了这一机制。虽然外界和《金融时报》（Financial Times）当年的报道核心聚焦在 Wirecard 亚洲业务的会计造假上，但卡迪尔团队在深入调研后得出的结论是：Wirecard 的核心业务骨子里其实就是一个洗钱网络，其联合创始人扬·马萨莱克（Jan Marsalek）后来更被证实是一名俄罗斯间谍。卡迪尔团队当时关注的并非亚洲，而是 Wirecard 鲜为人知却至关重要的美国美元通道。他们盯上了马萨莱克的密友——该通道背后的“核心操盘手与掮客（the kingpin, the fixer）”。 - 追踪美国纽约南区联邦地区法院（SDNY）的案卷卷宗：2020 年 3 月底，当卡迪尔团队每天紧盯法院记录时，终于发现针对这位关键掮客的逮捕令正式下达。 - 管理层舆论强撑与心理瓦解：此时市场根本没有察觉这一变故，Wirecard 官方仍在发布声明坚称一切安好，甚至公开抨击卡迪尔“根本算不上一个合格的分析师，所以才会胡扯什么洗钱指控”。 - 关键时刻的心态崩塌：在挚友被捕后不久，马萨莱克在自己的生日派对上被目击疯狂狂饮伏特加、醉倒在地上打滚，整个人陷入极度的失魂落魄。 - 最终崩盘：在这一极度反常的举动后仅仅一个半月，Wirecard 账上便爆出 20 亿欧元资金不知所踪，整家百亿巨头随即轰然倒闭。这证明了做空必须找到“到底什么弱点才会真正让他们冷汗直流”。 --- ### `24:45` 刺客的转身：首次做多与转战韩国市场 在拆解完空头逻辑后，访谈切入了一个出人意料的转折：卡迪尔这位令华尔街闻风丧胆的做空“刺客”，即将破天荒地在韩国股市开展多头投资。主持人直呼这是个“大新闻”，笑称她“终于要加入多头的狂欢盛宴”，并追问这是否意味着一名做空老手在残酷大环境下的妥协与投降（capitulation）。 卡迪尔明确反驳了“最后一名空头缴械投降”的说法。她解释，这源于她对自己作为市场空头的身份认同以及希望在资本市场上留下何种历史遗产的深层思考。她热爱自己身为市场“刺客”的职业生涯，也为揭露掠夺性药品定价机制、协助瓦解跨国洗钱组织等战绩感到自豪；但她也清醒地意识到，自己的技能远不止用来做空。在这样一个甚至被她称为“欺诈黄金时代”的环境里，如果西方市场与监管机制不再珍惜吹哨人的价值，那么这身本领还能应用在何处？哪里才真正渴求并认可她的技能？ 作为一个长期关注资本市场改革、尤其是做空规则演变的专业极客，卡迪尔在 2023 年 11 月韩国出台全面做空禁令时便拉响了雷达警报。起初，她只是想观察这里是否孕育着未来的做空机会，但深入研究后，她被这个极具张力的市场深深吸引。 - 经济实力与市场定位的背离：韩国拥有全球风靡的文化软实力（韩剧、K-pop、韩国美食），并在二战后借由全球化浪潮崛起为尖端制造业出口大国，但在全球金融分类上，它在技术层面竟然仍旧被视为新兴市场（EM）。 - “新兴市场底色”的政治与商业生态：在韩国政治史上，绝大多数历任总统都经历过调查、起诉、流放甚至刺杀；而商业帝国同样动荡，三星集团的历任掌门人也屡次被调查、起诉、入狱再到获得总统特赦。这种问责文化源于韩国深厚的“体面（chemyeon/面子）”文化观念，即个人与机构对向外界展示的面貌抱有极高的社会道德期待。 --- ### `27:30` 推动公司治理变革：将“体面”引入股东价值 正是透视了“体面（chemyeon）”这一文化透镜，卡迪尔找到了新的施展空间——她正在筹备成立一只新基金，专注于在韩国开展长线“股东积极主义（shareholder activism）”。随着执政层与监管层在出台做空禁令后积极推动资本市场改革，韩国正下大力气消除长期压抑本土资产估值的结构性顽疾，包括深化外汇市场、稳定韩元汇率、引导本土资金回流股市，以及最关键的——推动公司治理的全面现代化。 当主持人追问韩国的公司治理改善在实操中究竟意味着什么时，卡迪尔做了一个历史维度的横向对比。她指出，长期以来韩国上市公司的运作核心从来都不是“股价”或股东利益。这些被财阀家族（chaebols）层层控制的控股公司结构，与美国 1920 年代证券交易委员会（SEC）成立之前横行的公用事业控股公司如出一辙。 这一局面在近期迎来了历史性的制度拐点： - 确立信托义务：在过去不到一年的时间里，韩国正式在商法典/企业治理框架中确立了保护股东权益的法律条款，明确规定公司董事会对全体股东负有信托义务（fiduciary duty），必须确保公平公正地对待所有股东。 - 估值逻辑的根本重塑：当“体面”这一观念开始与上市公司股价及股东回报深度绑定，控制这些财阀帝国的家族和控股公司的行为模式将发生颠覆性转变。对于卡迪尔而言，用曾经寻找空头破绽的敏锐眼光，去锁定那些治理存在缺陷但具备纠偏价值的目标并推动其改革，正是将空头技能转化为长期价值创造的全新路径。 ### `30:00` 韩国财阀的“反向造假”与第三代接班的治理转折 法赫米·卡迪尔（Fahmi Quadir）深入剖析了她首次转为做多、选择押注韩国市场的深层逻辑。长期以来，韩国经济一直由大型财阀（Chaebols）主导，而这些财阀家族最核心的诉求之一便是规避高昂的遗产税。为了将庞大的家族财富传给下一代并最大限度减轻税负，财阀们普遍设计了极其复杂的关联交易与集团架构，人为压低旗下资产的市场估值与股价。主持人惊叹这本质上是一种“反向造假”——并非像常规公司那样通过财务造假吹大估值，而是“通过造假把公司做便宜”。卡迪尔对此完全赞同，并指出这恰恰与她的核心能力圈高度重合：作为一个以揭露财务欺诈闻名的做空专家，她深谙欺诈与估值扭曲的手法，因而能够精准识别这类被刻意低估的优质资产，并解锁其中的折价价值。 这一隐秘生态目前正迎来根本性的破局契机，核心催化剂在于财阀家族正处于第三代接班（进入或结束第三次代际交接）的关键节点。卡迪尔指出，新一代掌门人具有完全不同的格局与世界观：他们受过西方教育，更加具备全球化视野，密切关注美股市场的资本运作规律，并且极其重视资本回报与股价所带来的声誉象征。老一代靠刻意压低股价来避税的做法在新一代眼中已不再可行，但新掌柜们往往被过去数十年盘根错节的交叉持股和控股结构所束缚，缺乏摆脱历史包袱的实际经验。因此，卡迪尔明确表示，她关注的绝非三星（Samsung）或 SK 海力士（SK Hynix）这类早已高度国际化、深谙资本运作规则的科技巨头，而是那些因传统企业架构而陷入泥潭、渴望转型却不知如何破局的中型优质企业。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 韩国财阀代际交接与资本价值释放机制 accDescr: 图表展示韩国财阀如何从旧时代的避税压低估值转向新一代掌门人驱动的价值释放。 subgraph Legacy ["旧财阀时代：反向造假"] A["高额遗产税负担"] --> B["设计复杂交叉架构与交易"] B --> C["人为压低资产价值与股价"] C --> D["韩国折价 (Korea Discount)<br/>本土散户长期流失"] end subgraph Transition ["转型催化剂：代际更迭与监管倒逼"] E["第三代掌门人上位<br/>全球视野与资本意识"] F["监管机构推行'企业价值提升'<br/>破净股面临'点名羞辱'"] end subgraph Resolution ["新资本周期：价值解锁"] G["引入外部股东协助理顺治理"] H["传统长线价值散户重返韩股"] I["估值重估与代际财富共赢"] end Legacy --> Transition Transition --> Resolution ``` - **反向造假避税**：传统财阀家族为了在代际继承中逃避高达50%至60%的遗产税，通过压低核心上市公司股价来降低计税基数，形成了长期困扰韩国股市的“韩国折价”（Korea Discount）。 - **监管强力施压**：韩国金融监管机构近期推出的“企业价值提升计划”（Corporate Value-up Program）形成了明确的政策倒逼机制，公开宣称对于在综合股价指数（KOSPI）上股价长期低于每股净资产（市净率破净，P/B < 1）的上市公司，将采取公开“点名批评”（named and shamed）与惩戒措施。 --- ### `32:30` 揭秘韩国散户投资生态与做多策略展望 针对市场上流传的“韩国散户全是赌徒”的刻板印象，主持人询问韩国普通投资者的实际交易风格究竟如何。卡迪尔基于深入当地实地考察的经验进行了澄清。她承认，韩国确实存在一批数字原生、极具进攻性的年轻散户，他们活跃于社交媒体，热衷炒作迷因股（meme stocks），并以重仓三倍杠杆 ETF 等高风险衍生品为荣。然而，这部分极具声量的投机者并不能代表韩国散户的全貌，他们只是“声量最大的一群人，而非散户群体的主流”。 韩国散户市场真正的主力基石，实际上是一批追求代际财富传承的传统长线价值投资者。过去几十年间，正是因为财阀操纵股价、漠视中小股东利益所导致的普遍性价值毁灭，迫使这批庞大的严肃投资者长期远离韩国本土股市，转向海外市场或其他资产类别。如今，随着韩国监管政策对低估值上市公司的强力惩戒，加上财阀新一代掌门人释放企业真实价值的意愿增强，投资激励机制正在被彻底重塑。那些长年离场的严肃本土价值投资者正重新审视国内市场，并开始系统性地回流韩国股市，这为卡迪尔的做多策略提供了坚实而持久的流动性支撑。 - **年轻散户的投机标签**：在海外舆论中，韩国散户常因热衷杠杆 ETF、炒作加密资产和网红概念股而备受关注，但其真实占比有限。 - **主力资金的回归浪潮**：韩国本土传统价值投资者此前因对治理失望而选择用脚投票，如今在治理改革与监管倒逼双重驱动下，正逐渐成为推升估值修复的增量资金主体。 --- ### `34:00` 伦敦现场录制收尾与节目结语 在法赫米·卡迪尔详尽分享了其破天荒的做多战略后，主持人乔·威森塔尔（Joe Weisenthal）与特蕾西·阿洛韦（Tracy Alloway）向其表达了由衷的感谢，盛赞这段对话极其引人入胜。两位主持人向观众说明，本期特别节目是在伦敦威尔顿音乐厅（Wilton's Music Hall）举办的现场活动中实地录制的。 随后节目进入标准的播客尾声阶段，乔与特蕾西向播客制作团队致谢，并提醒听众订阅《Odd Lots》的每日电子通讯、加入官方 Discord 社区交流讨论，同时呼吁听众为这期聚焦“濒危做空者物种”的深度访谈留下好评，最后由赞助商播报推广内容为整期节目录制画上句号。 ## Notable quotes > `03:08` 就叫她‘刺客’吧。 — 法赫米·卡迪尔转述同行 > `03:08` 根据基金合同的约束，我们根本不允许进行任何方向性做多，没有任何对冲手段。这就意味着，我们建仓的每一个仓位都必须百分之百绝对正确。 — 法赫米·卡迪尔 > `05:00` 哪怕你是一个从未碰过 GameStop 或任何散户抱团股（Meme stocks）的做空者，资产配置机构也根本不在乎，他们看到的只是空头高度集中带来的毁灭性风险。我们走到了一步，运营一只纯做空基金在商业上已经毫无逻辑可言，因为再也没有人愿意付钱让你去这么做了。 — 法赫米·卡迪尔 > `12:30` 欺诈从来都不是一门好生意，而盘剥消费者同样不可能建立持久的商业模式。 — 法赫米·卡迪尔 > `18:00` 推回那股滑向金融虚无主义（financial nihilism）的不道德漂移 — 法赫米·卡迪尔 > `20:00` 紧盯那些劣迹斑斑的人（follow the bad people） — 乔·威森塔尔转述对冲基金经理观点 > `20:00` 健康的企业是用叙事来阐明其真实的底层经济逻辑，而可疑或走向衰亡的企业则是用宏大的叙事来掩盖、粉饰其千疮百孔的财务现实。 — 法赫米·卡迪尔 > `20:00` 根本算不上一个合格的分析师，所以才会胡扯什么洗钱指控 — Wirecard 官方声明 > `20:00` 到底什么弱点才会真正让他们冷汗直流 — 法赫米·卡迪尔 > `30:00` 通过造假把公司做便宜 — 乔·威森塔尔 > `32:30` 声量最大的一群人，而非散户群体的主流 — 法赫米·卡迪尔 ## Mentioned 法赫米·卡迪尔 (Fahmi Quadir), 特蕾西·阿洛韦 (Tracy Alloway), 乔·威森塔尔 (Joe Weisenthal), 吉姆·查诺斯 (Jim Chanos), 杰米·戴蒙 (Jamie Dimon), 扬·马萨莱克 (Jan Marsalek), Safkhet Capital, Wirecard, Valeant 制药 (Valeant Pharmaceuticals), GameStop, 摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase), OpenAI, 三星集团 (Samsung), SK 海力士 (SK Hynix), 美国证券交易委员会 (SEC), 美国纽约南区联邦地区法院 (SDNY), 金融时报 (Financial Times), Netflix, Odd Lots, 威尔顿音乐厅 (Wilton's Music Hall), 韩国综合股价指数 (KOSPI), 企业价值提升计划 (Corporate Value-up Program), 韩国折价 (Korea Discount) ## Video description <p data-renderer-start-pos="117">A short seller is a gumshoe who roots out a particular story about a specific company and brings it to light. And Fahmi Quadir, the founder and CIO of Safkhet Capital, has been labeled "The Assassin" for being one of the most famous, successfully betting against companies like Wirecard and Valeant. In today's conversation with Quadir, recorded at our live show in London at Wilton's Music Hall, she dishes on what life is like for a short seller and why betting against stocks has been getting harder even during what she calls a "golden age of fraud." She also reveals that she's going long for the first time ever by investing strategically in one of the world's best-performing markets.</p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="988">Read more:<br><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-20/korea-exchange-is-said-to-launch-weekly-options-on-single-stocks?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Korea Exchange Is Said to Launch Weekly Options on Single Stocks</a><br><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-20/swiss-pension-fund-eyes-1-1-billion-private-credit-investment?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Swiss Pension Fund Eyes $1.1 Billion Private Credit Investment</a></p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="1128">Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a></p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="1300"><a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a><br><strong data-renderer-mark="true">Join the conversation:</strong> <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">discord.gg/oddlots</a></p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p> [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/b86c9c43-2732-45ca-a5d5-b45100dd6e8e/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

[3:08] 法赫米·卡迪尔转述同行: 就叫她‘刺客’吧。 [3:08] 法赫米·卡迪尔: 根据基金合同的约束，我们根本不允许进行任何方向性做多，没有任何对冲手段。这就意味着，我们建仓的每一个仓位都必须百分之百绝对正确。 [5:00] 法赫米·卡迪尔: 哪怕你是一个从未碰过 GameStop 或任何散户抱团股（Meme stocks）的做空者，资产配置机构也根本不在乎，他们看到的只是空头高度集中带来的毁灭性风险。我们走到了一步，运营一只纯做空基金在商业上已经毫无逻辑可言，因为再也没有人愿意付钱让你去这么做了。 [12:30] 法赫米·卡迪尔: 欺诈从来都不是一门好生意，而盘剥消费者同样不可能建立持久的商业模式。 [18:00] 法赫米·卡迪尔: 推回那股滑向金融虚无主义（financial nihilism）的不道德漂移 [20:00] 乔·威森塔尔转述对冲基金经理观点: 紧盯那些劣迹斑斑的人（follow the bad people） [20:00] 法赫米·卡迪尔: 健康的企业是用叙事来阐明其真实的底层经济逻辑，而可疑或走向衰亡的企业则是用宏大的叙事来掩盖、粉饰其千疮百孔的财务现实。 [20:00] Wirecard 官方声明: 根本算不上一个合格的分析师，所以才会胡扯什么洗钱指控 [20:00] 法赫米·卡迪尔: 到底什么弱点才会真正让他们冷汗直流 [30:00] 乔·威森塔尔: 通过造假把公司做便宜 [32:30] 法赫米·卡迪尔: 声量最大的一群人，而非散户群体的主流

[5:00] Fahmi Quadir: by the skin of my teeth [5:00] Fahmi Quadir: golden age of fraud [10:00] Fahmi Quadir: willful blindness [15:00] Fahmi Quadir: black boxes [15:00] Fahmi Quadir: financial nihilism [0:00] The Assassin [20:00] Wirecard: not a good analyst [20:00] Fahmi Quadir: chugging bottles of vodka rolling around on the floor [24:40] Fahmi Quadir: last short seller throws in the towel [24:40] Fahmi Quadir: capital markets reform geek [29:00] Fahmi Quadir: fraud in the other direction [29:00] Fahmi Quadir: name and shame

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Healthcare doesn always work great If you ever waited on a refill or couldn schedule an appointment you get it That the kind of stuff Optum is changing They using data and technology to integrate patient care pharmacy and everything else So healthcare is connected not complicated What that look like Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. Joe, I have a soft spot for short sellers. I think what they do is sort of sometimes similar to journalism, right? You're trying to root out a particular story about a specific company and bring it to light, I guess. And I always wanted to talk to this particular short seller. she's kind of famous yeah in the space i think she's one of the few short sellers maybe who's been in a netflix documentary more than one i think at this point no it's pretty like i i totally agree with you about short sellers i mean i think like when you look at the broad history of markets or particularly you know u markets over the last several decades they basically go up and there a lot of money to be made by just like you know betting on the line go up So I think you have to have like a sort of distinct personality type to think oh maybe there is some other interesting way to make money in this market besides betting on stocks going up. But it's an important service because one, you know, as they will say, and I think there's probably something to it, shorting helps provide like price discovery. You can't just have everyone long. But then there's like another layer that I think is very important. And this is the maybe connection to journalism. They often do a lot of work, right? They often have to do a lot of sort of what in a very slightly adjacent field, what might be like considered investigative journalism. And sometimes they get a lot of pushback as well, which, you know, if you if you go out and Google this particular guest, when it comes to a company like Wirecard, like famously, she was being attacked on the streets of Manhattan and things like that. So just an incredible story. And we're very lucky to have her on stage with us live at our show in London. Yeah, that's right. And in addition to talking about the sort of the life of a short seller, what it's like being a short seller, we also sort of learned some new news, which is that she is getting interested in the Korean market. Yeah she actually going long for the first time ever And she chosen Korea which is a very hot market at the moment to do that So our guest is Fami Kadir She is the founder and CIO of Safcat Capital She also has a cool nickname, The Assassin. Really the perfect person to speak to. Go ahead and take a listen. In that introduction, I didn't actually even say one of the coolest things about you because there are a lot. But you are famous for going up against Valiant and Wirecard and shorting those successfully. And you are also known as the Assassin, which as someone who has always yearned for a cool nickname, I'm very jealous of. Yeah. Yeah, I guess ever since I got the nickname. So I'll let you in on a little secret. Sure. I got that nickname before anyone knew who I was. It was a way to basically assign my research, my product, as it was being sent out to other short sellers and investors, because I was an unknown entity. So another short seller who knew who I was just said, let's call her the assassin. So it was sort of genderless, ageless, but it stuck. Tell you, how would you describe Safgut Capital? What is the, we'll get into the details, but big picture, what is your firm? Yeah, so we launched in 2018 and we traditionally found [5:00] on high conviction shorting. So our fund exclusively shorts. And I really mean that. We're only holding short positions. We're not allowed by fund mandate to go directionally long in any way, not hedge in any way. So we need to be really damn right on every position we take. So what's client demand actually like at the moment? Because, you know, we were talking about short sellers kind of becoming a dying breed. If you think about someone like Jim Chanos, who we've had on the show a number of times. He basically, you know, closed his fund, converted it into a family office because he said no one was interested in shorting the market anymore. It's wild. I've been in this business as a short seller now for about 11 years. And I've seen multiple cycles of short sellers coming and going. And I have to say it's never been an easy time. I think the institutional allocator community was interested in funding shorts back after the GFC. So that was the point where you had the rise of larger short bias funds. But years of underperformance meant that these allocators lost interest. So by the time I was launching in 2018 there was really limited interest in funding shorts Investors believed in short alpha but the allocator community was really moving towards market neutral strategies So it was never easy And then as we head into 2021 and everything with GameStop, the idea of having conviction short positions also became a huge risk. Even if you're a short seller who never touched GameStop or any of the mean stocks, An allocator doesn't care because they just see the risk associated with concentration on the short side. So we got to a point where basically it became there was no business case for running a short fund because no one was willing to pay you to do it. And sadly, it's probably a tells us something about where we are in the market cycle. So every every day is a day about trying to evolve and stay in business. So how are you still here? Well, I think by the skin of my teeth. It isn't easy. I was fortunate enough to have picked investors who really gave me a lot of leeway to figure things out. But I would say since 2021, it's really been an existential crisis for me to understand, you know, what is the value of short selling in the golden age of fraud? Because the informational alpha we provide the research that we do that has to affect price discovery because ultimately the role of a conviction short seller or any short seller for that matter, whether you're a systematic algo or a market maker, is to provide liquidity and support price discovery, right? And conviction short sellers do that too. But the informational alpha components, it's just not affecting price discovery at this time the same way it has traditionally. So short sellers have had to essentially become factor investors like everyone else. We're chasing momentum and we're trying to find smaller windows of opportunity to make profit and de-risk our positions. Wait, say more about the golden age of fraud, because, I mean, it feels like grift is everywhere right now. So you could, in theory, find a bunch of targets. But on the other hand, it also feels like everyone is willing to ignore grift because they just want to grab onto the momentum and go along for the ride. What is the like target environment actually like for you? The target environment is very rich, of course, but the way you're actually timing the trades is very different. Yeah. Historically you could build conviction and position and you could at least have some small exposure to that over time and trade into certain catalysts that you see You could ensure that your thesis materializes in the market some way. You could go to regulators and you could blow the whistle on some of these frauds. But a lot of these levers that we traditionally had just don't exist anymore. Many of the contacts that I had are no longer in their old positions. So we've had to go more and focus on fundamental catalysts, which was always an important part of shorting. But now it's a lot more and more than I necessarily like, focusing on what will happen during earnings, really trying to find the early signs of fundamental deterioration. But ultimately, you're waiting for the narrative to break and you're shorting on the way down. And it's always best you make the most money on the short when your thesis is materializing and momentum is in your favor and you size into that. So as everyone is running for the exits, you are both shorting more and also covering your position. But as far as where we're shorting, our target, we tend to focus on the consumer a lot. And I think everyone's so focused with AI and [10:00] A big part of that is unemployment, but the consumer is stressed. You know, headline figures not necessarily compared to, you know, pre-GFC. But if we look at household debt, you know, we're at 80 percent of income. But the more important figure that's growing is that servicing, which is at 11 percent of income. And if you look at households that have a significant student loan burden, that figure is much, much higher and it's growing. And what we're seeing is sort of this bifurcation within households. So you have an older generation that's stabilizing, that's sort of this economic anchor. And then you have a younger generation that is stressed, that's facing greater unemployment and this just generational wealth gap. And we're really focused on where is this consumer struggling? Because I think however we think about durable consumer cycles, that's all really going to change because of this bifurcation. So we're looking a lot into consumer adjacent businesses that have high funding needs. We really like levered roll ups, which are generally always good. There's a lot of those in the U.S. So levered roll ups in the consumer discretionary space But we also looking a lot in health care health care think for the mid term healthcare is going to be an important theme on the short side because yes it the golden age of fraud but it also the age of populism. And the themes around reimbursement, cost of care, and the systemic issues in the U.S. healthcare system, these are here to stay. And I think as we lead into the midterms and into the next presidential, they're going to be important themes that we can invest on. For the past two years, I think investors have really gone full in to this sort of deregulation investment theme. But the reality with deregulation is that it's almost like what I like as a short seller, I like to call willful blindness. A lot of these businesses may look robust in this kind of environment, but those fundamentals depend on exploiting the consumer, price gouging. And these are behaviors where, you know, you won't be able to continue and sustain those in a more populist political atmosphere. This is great. Do you distinguish between OK, you talk about rising household debt levels. You talk about these sort of fundamental drivers of reasons to think that businesses will decline. Is that a category difference versus say looking for companies that have something suspicious in their accounting Like is that a fundamentally different type of trade Here is a company where the fundamentals are turning Here is another company in which the numbers just don't look right. And you think that one day people are going to discover that and they'll go to zero. I think there is definitely an alignment here because fraud is never good for business. And taking advantage of your consumer is also never good for business. So these things do converge. You know, if you look at consumer finance, these stocks have done really well lately. But if you're actually looking at the underlying assets and what's being securitized, it's not looking as good. And loss recognition is really lagging. And again, this goes back to putting more pressure on an already stressed consumer. And a lot of these businesses that rely on price gouging and kind of taking advantage of a looser regulatory environment, they do so because they may have structural issues that they're already contending with. And the thing about businesses that are facing a structural decline, whether that's, you know, circumstantial or something that's, you know, fundamental and terminal, they will all turn to financial engineering because that's the only way they can try to mask the deterioration and the fundamentals of the business So I would say the most the safest shorts in this environment are companies where you have that sort of structural break where the narrative is broken You know the company may try to acquire new businesses and say they're, you know, they're changing the story. But if the economics aren't following up and lining up with these acquisitions, and you still see, can you continue to see the fundamental deterioration. Those are the shorts you can still, even in this market, sit in and ride down. You know, you mentioned levered private equity roll ups. Can you give us your thoughts on private credit in general? Because we keep getting these sort of idiosyncratic blow ups, you know, the things that Jamie Dimon refers to as cockroaches. And they seem idiosyncratic, but then they keep happening. And so it's kind of difficult not to ask the question about whether or not this is a more generalized issue? Everyone loves to talk about private credit. It's not necessarily a theme we look at because we are pretty idiosyncratic. So, you know, we are looking at it where it touches some of the consumer facing businesses that are getting credit from these business from these lenders. But I think where I will everyone likes to talk about the dotcom bubble and, you know, the parallels to right now. But let's go further back to radio. [15:00] utilities and electrification. And if we look at the structure of those utility companies, the holding structure, and like there were layers of financing at each level, and there was cash flows being recycled between each of these layers. And the thing was, it was an entirely black box. No one really knew what was going on. And that's kind of how I see things unfolding today, especially with within AI and within the circular deals, you have a lot of money going around. And what this is effectively doing, because we don't see everything, it's manufacturing, to some extent, demand. That demand is driven by capital flows. So I think an important catalyst for the market will be the OpenAI IPO, whenever that may happen, an informational catalyst, because we'll see, you know, the financial narratives will be laid bare. You'll get the prospectus. Exactly. Presumably a flow chart that kind of goes like this. We'll see. Exactly. And I think investors then will be forced to reckon with how they've priced some of this demand. 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Plus one conversation on the day's biggest developments, all in just 15 minutes. Subscribe to Bloomberg Daybreak for a precise, thoughtful take on the stories that matter. Listen to Bloomberg Daybreak each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen. Maybe, you know, a theoretical open AI IPO could be the top. Maybe, you know, who knows, et cetera. Can you be a professional short seller but not be sort of temperamentally bearish? Do people conflate bearishness with proclivity to short? Yeah, because I think most short sellers I know are not bearish the market. And if you ever look at some of the things that short sellers go long sometimes it highly speculative momentum driven stuff And many short sellers are again hedging their shorts versus the market right And are net long, not net short. But for me, and I speak for myself, I don't speak for other short sellers. Short selling is about identifying things that are broken in the market. You mentioned, you know, golden age of fraud, age of grift. we don't necessarily have anyone looking for these breaks, for these things that are failings, for these misrepresentations. We're all just so concerned with chasing money and chasing profit that a lot of this gets thrown by the wayside. And short selling is the one way where we're kind of pushing back. It's pushing back against this amoral drift towards financial nihilism, whatever you want to call it. And right now, I would say short sellers are one of the only and one of the last arbiters of market-based corporate government. It doesn't feel like there's many rules these days. There are rules, but whether... Oh, enforced rules. Enforced rules. So the SEC, for example, enforcement activity. Enforcement actions for the SEC from 23 to 24 dropped, I believe, 26%. And then the following... [20:00] one year dropped another 22%. So I want to say, you know, this isn't something that's tied to a single administration. It really is tied to pro-cyclicality because no regulator wants to stand in the way of something as big as the AI boom. And it's always in the aftermath that we realize this. What's your top tip for uncovering a short? And the reason I ask this is because I remember there's a hedge fund manager who has never been on the show, but one can dream. But His whole strategy, as he described it to me, he always said, follow the bad people. Because if bad people show up at one company, assuming they don't go to jail, and a lot of them don't, they go on to the next company, and there's a tendency for things to go awry there as well. So if you just follow those personalities from thing to thing to thing, you can spot a pattern there. What's your sort of, I guess, secret pattern sauce when it comes to finding these things? If only it was simple as just one thing. Of course, following people matters. Following money, investor quality also matters. Who's funding this business? In this market especially you have to be weary of the dependency on narratives right There are healthy companies that are using narratives to explain their economics but then there are dodgy and failing companies that are using narratives to explain away their economics. So you have to be able to tell the difference. We tend to follow sectors where you have some sort of structural component that is going to put pressure on the business because that is really the test of your management, you know, their governance and their ability to, when they are dealing with pressure, do they turn to fraud and financial engineering and potentially financial fraud, accounting shenanigans, or are they transparent about their problems and they face the repricing themselves? But I would say what we really focus on, and this kind of goes along the lines of people, in cases of terminal fraud, especially where you're going to have fraud at a systemic level. So it's going to go all the way up to the top. It's the people that are running that business that are somehow rotten. You need to understand how they think. And it's this behavioral component where you have to understand what the pressures on them are. Because many times that is not the stock. There going to be other exogenous factors that are worrying them when the house of cards is starting to fall in on them And I use an example for your audience You know we in London so you guys all probably know about Wirecard You know the headline of Wirecard was always you know with the Financial Times and the accounting fraud In the aftermath, we all know now that the co-founder of Wirecard was a Russian spy. And, you know, from our research, it was always about the money laundering and that basically the business was built around money laundering. So apart from what the Financial Times was doing on the accounting side with Wirecard Asia, we were looking at Wirecard's business in the U.S. And this was a part of the market, you know, no one really followed. But the kingpin, the fixer, as I'd like to call him, for Wirecard's business through the U.S. with U.S. dollars was this guy who was actually best friends with Jan Marsalik, the Russian spy co-founder of Wirecard. So we presented information on him. And I believe it was towards the end of March 2020, when we were following the docket every day in the Southern District of New York. And we saw finally there's an arrest warrant out for this guy who is the best friend of Jan Marslik. And this was something the market is not following While this is all happening Wirecard is saying everything is all okay Wirecard is putting out press statements saying that I not a good analyst That why I think it's money laundering. But his best friend was arrested. And after that happened, there was a psychological collapse. A few weeks later, it was Jan Marslik's birthday party. He was chugging bottles of vodka rolling around on the floor, not sure what to do with himself. Bad sign. Bad sign. And then within a month and a half, $2 billion missing, wire card goes bust. So it's about understanding what are these pressure points? What will actually make these guys sweat? Let's pivot a little bit because you're also interested and deeply knowledgeable in investing in probably the world's most interesting and exciting stock market, which is Korea, which is interesting, I think, for two reasons. One, because of the chips, and we know they're making a ton of money from AI, but also just sort of changes in corporate governance and attitudes towards the stock market period. What should everyone know about how the Korean stock market works? Yeah. So just to take it a step back, because this is my first time going long. So wait, no, this is big news. Yeah, this is big news. [25:00] You've never gone long before. I've never gone long before. Wow. You're finally going to make it. So you get to join the party. But how should we think about this? Like, is this capitulation? Like, does this say more about the short strategy than it does about the Korean market? So that's what I want to say. I wouldn't read too much into this as like the last short seller throws in the towel. That's not what this is. You know, obviously, you know, thinking back to just the business landscape for short sellers and the funding environment for short sellers. It's really about thinking about my identity as a short seller and what do I want my legacy in the markets to be? Yeah, I love being the assassin. And there's, you know, I have great pride in helping talk, you know, bring up the discussion of drug pricing, bringing down a money laundering organization. These things are important to me, but, you know, my skills have more utility than just that. And that was the starting point. You know, how do I use my skills in the golden age of fraud? You know, if I can't go and whistleblow on companies in the U.S. and the West, then where can I go? Who wants to see me use these skills? Who will value me? And for a long time I a bit of a capital markets reform geek especially when it refers like as far as like short selling regulations So I follow any developments related to short selling And I believe it like November 23 that Korea banned short selling So it you know alarm going off in my head and Korea's on my radar. So because whatever is happening there is going to be interesting, you know, good or bad. At that time, I was thinking of it potentially as a place I would want to go short sometime. But then I started to learn more about Korea and what was happening there. And it's, you know, we've all been touched by Korean culture somehow, you know, Korean food, K-pop, K-drama. And Korea is such an interesting country to me because it's really developed its national identity after World War II in the face of globalization. So as we've seen the rise of globalization, we've seen the rise of Korea. And we see it as this really sophisticated manufacturing-based economy that exports a lot. But at the end of the day, technically, it's still an emerging market, which is crazy. And if you look at the political history of Korea, most presidents have been investigated, prosecuted exiled killed The politics are very EM coded I would say Exactly And that is crazy But at the same time most chairmen of Samsung have also been investigated prosecuted and sometimes jailed and sometimes pardoned So there's this idea of accountability and a certain expectation that the Korean public has on its institutions. And this arises from a Korean value called shemmyun, which is face, basically the face that you show to the world. And it's through this concept and through this lens, I really started to understand the market very well. I spent a lot of time there as I'm looking to launch this new fund. We're looking to do long shareholder activism in Korea. But in the aftermath of this short selling ban, after the Democratic administration came into position, they've made a really concerted effort to fix a lot of the structural issues that were holding Korea back, especially Korean markets. There a big focus on deepening the FX market stabilizing the one encouraging domestic equity flows and of course modernizing corporate governance And it on this last point where I feel like I can really add value And it really exciting for me to be a part of the transformation there Wait, so give us an example of what improving corporate governance in Korea would look like. How do you, you know, we're talking about it in the same language as going short, but maybe that stands up your point. Like, how do you identify a target and what you can actually do here? I want to first say that stock price has not been the guiding factor of Korean companies. I mentioned these utilities holding companies before. That was back in the 1920s in the US, before the establishment of the SEC. Well, Korean companies have looked like that through most of the modern era. And it was only this past year, not even a full year ago, that Korea enshrined the rights of shareholders into their corporate code. So companies now have a fiduciary duty to shareholders to provide fair and equitable treatment. So there's now this idea of shemmyun now applies to stock price. And that is gonna change a lot of the behavior of how companies act and how these holding companies and these families that run them, the troubles, [30:00] how they act. Korea has been dominated by these trebles, and one of the main things that they've been trying to avoid is inheritance tax. So a lot of the governance issues have been related to different structure transactions they would do to depress the value of the assets in order to minimize their inheritance tax burden. But now they realize they can't do this. It's like a fraud in the other direction, kind of, right? Exactly. Yeah, exactly. So it's a fraud to make things cheaper, not more expensive. Right. And that's really interesting for me because I have an expertise in fraud and I can actually unlock that that discount, that value from these businesses. But the other interesting dynamic with these troubles is that they're now either entering or exiting their third succession. So you have a new generation of owners that are much more globally oriented. They're looking at what's happening in US markets. They're much more capital aware. They start seeing the prestige behind having a high stock price. So they're much more willing to engage. So the companies that I looking at in Korea are not the ones that are the high flyers I not looking at Samsung and SK Hynix I think they know what they doing I looking at the businesses that don have as much experience with foreign markets that have sort of been bogged down by these corporate structures over the past couple of years. And this new generation doesn't really know how to rid themselves of that history. Because the thing about the Korean investing public is they're very passionate. And traditionally, these Korean retail investors have stayed away from Korean equities because of the bad experience holding these trouble companies that have these depressed value. But now, actually, the financial regulator just announced recently that if you are a company on the KOSPI where you're trading below book value, you will be named and shamed. So that will be a great place to start. That is a change, yeah. And punish companies for being too cheap. So you talk about this generational change. Is it true what they say about Korean retail traders? They have a reputation for they really like to place bets. That's what people talk about online. Is that true about the trading public in Korea? Yeah so I been fortunate enough to spend a lot of time with retail investors there And you definitely do have a younger generation of retail investors that very digitally connected And they are certainly trading they're trading meme stocks. They're proud to have their triple lever ETFs, stock ETFs. This is what the reputation, yeah. So they're there, they're noisy, but they're not the largest part of the retail public. The largest part are traditional value investors who've really tried to build generational wealth through their accounts. And they've stayed away from Korean equities, again, because of what they viewed as value destruction. And suddenly, now, because of the incentives and because of these structural changes that are happening, those investors are now starting to buy into Korean equities. All right, Fami, thank you so much for coming on OddLots and explaining your new strategy. It sounds fascinating, and we appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thank you. That was our conversation recorded live in London on May 7th. All right. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast I Tracy Allaway You can follow me at Tracy Allaway And I Joe Weisenthal You can follow me at The Stalwart Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armin Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for my All Thoughts content, go to Bloomberg.com slash All Thoughts. We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. You can chat about all these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash All Thoughts. And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk to the vanishing breed that is the short seller, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. Thank you. [35:00] Whatever your goal, trade show giveaways, client gifts, or team gear, 4imprint has the promo products to match. With thousands of options, from apparel and drinkware to tech and totes, it's easy to find the right fit for your brand and budget, with standout choices at every price point. And with their 360-degree guarantee, you can be 4imprint certain your order will show up just right, right on time. Explore more at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. 4certain. Got a business problem? There's a TED Talk for that. 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