Batnick, Carlson See Semiconductor Boom Driving Unprecedented Market Surge

Batnick与Carlson：半导体繁荣推动市场迎来空前激增 当前股市上涨与以往的投机泡沫不同，因为它是由真实的企业营收和巨额资本支出推动，而非Meme股投机。 共同主持人Michael Batnick和Ben Carlson深入探讨了由AI基本面、半导体板块大涨以及创纪录的ETF发行所推动的强劲市场周期。他们分析了当前市场与1990年代互联网泡沫的历史相似性、SpaceX等即将进行的超大型IPO因纳入指数而可能引发的轧空现象，以及Alphabet不同寻常的800亿美元股权融资。讨论还涉及韩国的全球投机活动、房地产经纪人面临的结构性压力，以及在独立恐怖题材推动下院线票房令人意外的复苏。 随着半导体板块推动标普500指数大幅走高，市场呈现极端的FOMO情绪；虽然走势图与1999年互联网泡沫初期高度相似，但本轮反弹主要由真实的强劲企业营收与资本支出所驱动。 (6:13) 包括Anthropic、OpenAI和SpaceX在内的超级科技IPO预计将打破历史融资纪录，三者合并募资额甚至可能超过1990年与2000年互联网泡沫时期所有IPO的总和。 (12:14) 半导体牛市持续升温，Micron创下市值从5000亿美元翻倍至1万亿美元的最快纪录，而Roundhill推出的Memory ETF（DRAM）也在仅35天内规模突破100亿美元大关。 (17:32) 围绕SpaceX即将进行的IPO，市场担忧其低流通盘可能引发被动指数基金被迫大举买入的结构性轧空，但分析指出其实际权重可能受限于浮动股本计算，预计最初将位列标普500第195名左右。 (31:45) Alphabet罕见宣布800亿美元股票增发以满足2026年高达1800亿至1900亿美元的资本支出需求，显示出AI军备竞赛正在产生前所未有的流动性与硬件需求。 (34:43)

Hosts Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson examine whether the current AI-driven equity surge represents a durable fundamentals-backed expansion or an aggressive late-stage cycle echoing the late 1990s. They argue that massive corporate capital expenditures, unprecedented market concentration, and looming mega-cap IPOs are introducing novel structural squeezes across both passive index funds and the broader economy. Fundamental AI Momentum and Dot-Com Parallels (8:13) Chip stocks drove the S&P 500 up 16% across April and May 2026, a two-month rally observed only four other times since 1950. While a Bespoke Investment Group chart shows the Nasdaq's post-ChatGPT trajectory closely tracking its post-Netscape run from 1995 to 1998, Batnick and Carlson differentiate today's rally from earlier speculative manias. They emphasize that current multiples are backed by tangible revenue and capex rather than purely speculative narratives, pointing to Dell hiking its full-year sales outlook to $165–$169 billion after an 88% quarterly surge. However, the hosts balance this momentum against classic bubble psychology, recalling portfolio manager George Vanderheiden's early retirement in February 2000 after warning that the market had no fear. They also cite TS Lombard analyst Dario Perkins, who cautions that roughly 80% of current generative AI revenues remain circular transactions between cloud hyperscalers rather than end-user enterprise adoption, alongside technical warnings such as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trading at extreme distances above its 200-day moving average. Float Mechanics and the Index Fund Squeeze (28:11) With Goldman Sachs projecting U.S. IPO gross proceeds to reach $225 billion in 2026, upcoming public debuts from mega-cap private firms like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic pose unprecedented index mechanics challenges. Columnist Matt Levine points out a structural distortion: if index providers fast-track multi-trillion-dollar debuts while public float remains tightly restricted, passive index funds—which collectively hold around 24% of typical S&P 500 constituents—could be forced into price-insensitive buying, creating an inadvertent short squeeze on passive vehicles. Nuancing this risk, Bloomberg analysts Lu Wang, James Seyffart, and Rob Duboff estimate passive demand for SpaceX would total approximately $20 billion on an assumed $75 billion capital raise, rather than reflecting its full $1.8 trillion headline valuation. Calculations by Cali Cox and Chartr show float-adjusted rules would likely debut SpaceX around the 195th slot in the S&P 500 alongside companies like Gilead and Honeywell. Nonetheless, Batnick and Carlson argue index providers will likely need to adjust rulebooks to prevent artificial supply constraints from exploiting benchmark tracking. Corporate CapEx Intensity and Global Retail Speculation (34:43) The extreme capital requirements of artificial intelligence infrastructure were underscored by Alphabet's unprecedented $80 billion equity offering—its first major share issuance since 2005. Despite generating $174 billion in operating cash flow over the trailing 12 months, Alphabet raised guidance for 2026 capital expenditures to $180–$190 billion, drawing a $10 billion private placement from Berkshire Hathaway at a 4% discount. Meanwhile, retail trading frenzies have escalated sharply in foreign markets. Driven by memory chip demand, the South Korea ETF (EWY) erased years of underperformance to surpass the S&P 500 on a rolling 10-year basis, with the entire excess return occurring within 12 months. Eric Balchunas highlighted that a 2x leveraged SK Hynix ETF expanded tenfold to command 8.5% of all Hong Kong ETF assets, while Roundhill's DRAM ETF reached $10 billion in assets under management in a record 35 days. Narrow Market Breadth and Diverging Economic Fortunes (41:12) Beneath benchmark records, market breadth remains tightly concentrated. Kevin Gordon observes that while the S&P 500 sits extended above its 200-day moving average, individual member participation lags, with Todd Sohn's data showing $30 billion in cumulative net inflows targeting tech since March while non-tech sectors lost $4 billion. Concurrently, a record $8.28 trillion sits in money market funds yielding 3.5% to 4%, indicating that institutional and retail investors are maintaining heavy cash hedges alongside equity positions. The real economy shows a corresponding divide. The U.S. personal savings rate dropped from 5.5% in April 2025 to 2.6% in April 2026, which the hosts attribute to the wealth effect of rising asset portfolios rather than acute consumer stress. In contrast, higher-for-longer interest rates continue to pressure transactional sectors; 2024 National Association of Realtors data revealed that agents with under two years of experience averaged just three transactions and $8,100 in annual gross income, demonstrating how macro forces have penalized interest-sensitive industries even amid headline prosperity. Carlson and Batnick conclude that while explosive corporate earnings and massive infrastructure outlays justify equity momentum, unprecedented valuation velocities and narrow participation require disciplined risk controls. The primary dilemma for investors remains balancing the danger of exiting a generational technological expansion too early against the structural vulnerability of a market showing minimal fear.

Michael Batnick与Ben Carlson在节目中指出，当前由人工智能与半导体驱动的美股繁荣虽有真实盈利与庞大资本支出支撑，但超级IPO引发的被动指数逼空机制、极端的分化行情以及宏观层面的流动性矛盾，使得本轮周期呈现出基本面扩张与结构性脆弱并存的复杂格局。 真实盈利驱动与类1999年狂热的张力 (6:13) 芯片股推动标普500指数在2026年4月和5月累计上涨16%，《华尔街日报》指出1950年以来类似幅度的双月暴涨仅发生过四次，且指数在随后六个月均录得上涨（涨幅中位数为17%）。Bespoke将ChatGPT发布后875个交易日的纳斯达克走势与1994年Netscape发布后的轨迹重合对比，两者惊人一致，令Ben Carlson认为市场仍处于类似1998年初的爆发阶段。与2020至2021年的纯概念炒作不同，当前涨幅伴随着扎实的业绩释放：Dell因季度营收激增88%而大幅上调全年收入指引至1650亿至1690亿美元，股价单日暴涨38%；Micron从5000亿美元翻倍至1万亿美元市值的速度创历史最快纪录；Roundhill推出的DRAM ETF在短短35天内规模便突破100亿美元。 然而，市场也显露出无所畏惧的狂热特征。VanEck半导体ETF（SMH）偏离200日移动均线的程度创下2001年以来之最，引发技术面回调风险。TS Lombard的Dario Perkins提出看空理由，认为当前约80%的AI营收属于超大规模云服务商之间的循环资本支出，而非来自外部企业普及带来的净增量收入。对此，Batnick提醒投资者切勿盲目对抗基本面增长，但在个股涨幅剧烈的情况下，必须坚持严格的止损纪律以防突发性踩踏。 超级IPO发行潮与被动指数的逼空困境 (31:45) 高盛预计2026年美国IPO募资总额将达到创纪录的2250亿美元，远超此前预估的1600亿美元。仅SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI三家公司的预计募资规模，就将超过1990年与2000年互联网泡沫时期所有IPO的总和。随着指数编制机构倾向于加速将巨型独角兽纳入基准，这一机制引发了对流动性操纵的担忧。专栏作家Matt Levine指出，若指数基金按惯例持有成分股约24%的流通市值，而发行人仅在公开市场投放极少比例的流通股，被动基金将成为非理性的强制买家，从而在窄幅流通盘中形成人为的空头挤压。 不过，彭博分析师Lu Wang、James Seyffart与Rob Duboff通过测算降温了恐慌：假设SpaceX通过发行募资750亿美元，跟踪指数的被动资金买入规模约为200亿美元；根据浮动调整规则，SpaceX纳入标普500指数初期大致位列第195位，其权重与Honeywell或Gilead相仿，而非立即占据顶峰。与此同时，Alphabet宣布开展800亿美元的股权融资，为其2026年高达1800亿至1900亿美元的资本支出筹集资金，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦亦通过私募认购100亿美元。作为一家拥有充沛经营现金流的成熟巨头，Alphabet罕见的大规模股权增发凸显出AI军备竞赛对市场流动性的巨大吸收效应。 极端广度收窄、海外杠杆与宏观背离 (41:12) 美股广度正呈现出极端的内部撕裂。标普500指数前十大成分股市值均已达到或超过1万亿美元，彻底超越了传统行业巨头。Kevin Gordon指出，尽管标普500指数高悬于200日均线之上，但站上各自200日均线的个股比例却未见起色；自3月低点以来，科技行业累计吸纳净流入资金300亿美元，而其余板块合计净流出40亿美元。与场内亢奋形成对比的是场外资金的按兵不动：货币市场基金资产达到创纪录的8.28万亿美元，在3.5%至4%的无风险收益率下储户不愿离场。宏观数据显示，美国个人储蓄率从2025年4月的5.5%急跌至2026年4月的2.6%，复刻了1990年代股市繁荣引发财富效应、促使居民削减主动储蓄的特征。 国际市场的散户投机狂热更为显著。韩国股市ETF（EWY）近一年的暴涨抹平了此前十年的相对落后，使其十年期年化回报反超标普500指数，韩国总市值甚至超越了英国和加拿大。在香港上市的2倍杠杆SK海力士ETF资产规模在一年内扩大十倍，已占据香港ETF市场总资产的8.5%，单日交易量突破10亿美元，展现出极高的地域性杠杆博弈氛围。 杰文斯悖论、职场焦虑与实体周期阵痛 (44:08) 在产业与劳动力层面，Torsten Slok基于就业数据探讨了杰文斯悖论（Jevons paradox）的可能性——技术演进带来的效率提升与成本下降可能通过扩大行业总需求而创造更多就业，而非单纯消除岗位。尽管如此，软件开发领域正经历显著的岗位焦虑，行业内部已出现针对日常编码自动化的高压讨论。Bucco Capital评论称，若AI机构宣称的数千万岗位瞬间消失成为现实，剧烈的社会反弹将不可避免地导致强力监管介入甚至国有化整合。 与科技板块的繁荣相比，传统实体行业正在承受宏观紧缩的滞后打击。受制于高房贷利率与交易冻结，房地产经纪行业陷入生存困境。全美地产经纪商协会数据显示，从业不满两年的中介在2024年平均仅完成3笔交易，年毛收入仅为8100美元；2025年仅有71%的受访中介以地产为唯一职业，创历史新低。此外，加密资产领域也显露微幅裂痕，MicroStrategy近期因履行优先股偿付义务等需求出售了32枚比特币（约250万美元），打破了自2022年底以来的持币不动纪录，印证了实体与金融流动性所面临的隐性压力。 本期节目认为，本轮繁荣拥有坚实的企业现金流支撑，且处于高对冲水平并存的非纯粹自满环境，短期内难以轻易断言见顶；但流动性供给冲击、被动机制缺陷及跨行业的极端冷热分化，预示着市场后续仍蕴含深刻的周期性回归风险。

## Background 本期内容来自 YouTube 频道 The Compound 于 2026 年 6 月 13 日发布的播客《Animal Spirits》第 467 期。主理人 Michael Batnick 和 Ben Carlson 在简介中指出，本期重点探讨了极度 FOMO 情绪、半导体个股的核爆式上涨、类似 1990 年代牛市的历史镜像、万亿美元级 IPO 潮、全球化 AI 交易、看空论点、房地产中介困境及近期影视行业复苏等热点议题。 ## TL;DR 节目围绕当前由半导体与 AI 算力军备竞赛引爆的史诗级牛市展开，深入剖析了美光破万亿、DRAM ETF 爆火背后的基本面与动量狂热，并将其与 1994 至 1999 年的网景互联网浪潮进行了深度对标。两位主持人细致拆解了 SpaceX 等超级独角兽上市可能对被动指数基金构成的挤压、Alphabet 巨额增发揭示的资本密集型泥潭，以及高利率环境下全美 8 万亿货基筑墙与房地产中介转行潮等结构性分化。此外，节目还探讨了 AI 落地所伴随的工程师生存焦虑，并以近期低成本独立恐怖片逆袭好莱坞传统 IP 为例，畅聊了院线文化复兴与个人生活趣事。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对谈洋溢着狂欢与警惕交织的微妙张力。Michael 沉浸在生活高光与事业顺遂的“迈克尔之夏”感恩之中，语调兴奋且充满段子；Ben 则扮演起沉稳清醒的理性锚点，频频搬出历史教训与看空逻辑给市场狂热降温。两人在默契互怼与真诚复盘间自然切换，既有手写交易日记破除自负的坦诚，又有对好莱坞八卦和儿女趣事的开怀大笑，呈现出一种在资本泡沫边缘一边享受盛宴舞会、一边战战兢兢四处找寻钟表指针的真实沉浸感。 ## Bulletin - [12:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=734s) 高盛预测2026年美国IPO募资总额将攀升至创纪录的2,250亿美元，仅Anthropic、OpenAI和SpaceX三家的IPO体量就超越了1990年代互联网泡沫时期的总和。 - [16:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1008s) 美光科技成为美股第11家市值突破万亿美元的企业，创下从5,000亿跃升至1万亿美元的最快历史纪录，分析师预期其未来三季度EPS将迎来5至10倍垂直拉升。 - [35:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2114s) Alphabet启动2005年以来首次股票增发，募资规模高达800亿美元，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦通过定向增发认购100亿美元，凸显AI基础设施军备竞赛使科技巨头全面转向重资产运营。 - [22:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1330s) TS Lombard策略师指出，当前AI领域高达80%的营收属于科技巨头之间的内部循环（circular revenue），资金主要在少数超大规模云服务商与硬件供应商之间流转，尚未大规模渗透至广泛实体经济。 ## Key takeaways - [06:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=373s) 芯片与硬件板块展现出1999年式的亢奋行情，标普500指数两个月暴涨16%，历史同类暴涨后6个月内全部延续走高。 - [08:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=491s) Bespoke历史走势重合图显示，ChatGPT发布后的走势与1994年网景浏览器发布后的轨迹高度契合，暗示当前科技行情仅相当于1998年初，主升浪可能远未见顶。 - [09:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=566s) 市场充斥着'毫无恐惧'（no fear）的情绪，但散户交易员情绪在极度悲观与极度亢奋之间快速切换，5月中旬微小回调即引发避险资产涌入。 - [19:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1169s) 半导体ETF（SMH）与其200日均线的偏离度达到2001年以来最高水平，获利盘过于庞大极易诱发业绩超预期后的雪崩式抛售踩踏。 - [21:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1277s) AI交易已经完全全球化，2024年以来中国AI概念股和新兴市场ETF涨幅紧跟甚至略微跑赢美股同行，AI可能打破过去互联网强化美国科技霸权的单极格局。 - [25:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1534s) 没人能精准择时泡沫顶峰，斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒在2000年科技泡沫见顶数小时前投降追高单日巨亏30亿美元的教训印证了克服自负与FOMO的极端难度。 - [25:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1534s) 2020年以来的牛市伴随着较高的VIX对冲成本，投资者防备心理显著高于2010年代的自满状态，市场逻辑已发生深刻转变。 - [30:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1840s) SpaceX等超级独角兽IPO引发指数编制争议，若通过极小流通盘拉高估值并快速纳入指数，可能利用被动基金硬性配置规则引发史诗级逼空。 - [34:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2083s) 密集的超级IPO与增发潮将向市场抽血超过2000亿至2500亿美元，资金分流效应对存量股票池的流动性构成严峻考验。 - [39:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2344s) 韩国股市迎来空前投机狂潮，十年总回报反超标普500，香港上市的2倍做多SK海力士ETF规模年内暴增10倍且单只占全港ETF资产的8.5%。 - [41:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2476s) 美股广度严重恶化，标普500指数全靠少数超大盘科技股支撑，全美货币市场基金规模达8.28万亿美元创历史新高，高利率环境下资金并未如预期流向股市。 - [42:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2576s) 美国个人储蓄率骤降至2.6%并非因民众生活拮据，而是股市与房产繁荣带来的财富效应削弱了居民的预防性储蓄意愿。 - [49:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2966s) MicroStrategy自2022年底以来首次净卖出32枚比特币用于支付股息等硬性开支，其股价较历史高点已深幅回撤约70%。 - [51:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3072s) 高利率彻底冻结美国房地产交易，仅有71%的房产中介全职执业创历史新低，宏观变局对个体的生存构成了无差别打击。 - [55:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3329s) 影视市场出现格局分化，《曼达洛人》等好莱坞传统大IP遭遇票房跳水，而由网络IP改编的《后室》等低成本独立恐怖片凭借年轻群体引爆院线复苏。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=0s) Invesco 赞助片头 节目由 Invesco（景顺）赞助播出。片头广告探讨了投资者是否应当将权益投资组合从“自动驾驶”模式中切换出来。单纯依赖传统基准指数可能无法为投资组合提供足够的上升动力。Invesco 建议通过等权重策略或中盘股配置来平衡成长与稳定性，帮助打破投资组合的过度集中风险。对于希望进一步微调投资方案的投资者，Invesco 还提供了针对动量、低波动率和高质量等因子的策略产品。 --- ### [00:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=48s) 迈克尔的“巅峰时刻”与生活感悟 节目正式开场，迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）与本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）坦言今天准备了厚达 42 页的讨论大纲，信息量极其庞大。迈克尔本周录制了四档播客，依然觉得有无数观点不吐不快。迈克尔感慨自己正迎来人生与职业生涯的高光时刻——本借用《宋飞正传》的梗将其戏称为“迈克尔之夏”（Summer of Michael）。迈克尔表示，经过漫长而阴郁的寒冬，在阳光灿烂的夏日迎来这一切让人倍感甜蜜。他强调这不是炫耀，而是对生活起伏的感恩与清醒认知：“就像你生病时只求身体快点好起来，而康复后却往往忘了曾经的病痛。”迈克尔甚至有一种奇特的直觉：2026 年的夏天或许就是自己人生的“顶点峰值”（Apex Mountain）。 迈克尔逐一列举了生活与事业中的诸般幸事： - **尼克斯队重返荣耀**：迈克尔自 7 岁起被父亲带去看球，上周还特意穿上了 1999 年总决赛的旧 T 恤（当时他 14 岁）。如今能与自己的儿子们一同见证尼克斯的辉煌，让他两度在听播客时落泪——一次是听到麦克·布林（Mike Breen）动情讲述这个时刻的特殊意义，另一次是蒂姆·莱格勒（Tim Legler）盛赞杰伦·布伦森（Jalen Brunson）的出色表现。虽然季后赛门票价格贵得离谱，但他已做好如果打到抢七就现场观看第 3 至第 7 场的准备，并幽默预测“尼克斯 6 场拿下”。 - **纽约巨人队触底反弹**：经历了长达十年的低迷期后，巨人队似乎终于见底，不会再更糟了。 - **电影行业的复兴**：影院与大银幕迎来了极为亮眼的作品周期，迈克尔钟爱的电影类型再次成为主流文化热点。 - **Ritholtz 财富管理公司的扩张**：公司各项业务进展顺利，推出了动量投资策略“Porterhouse”并上线了新 ETF。最令迈克尔感慨的是客户需求的爆发导致顾问极度短缺，他回忆自己早年以“打电话被挂断”的电话推销起步，如今门庭若市的景象令人难以置信。本也赞同这一趋势，认为未来 20 年理财顾问需求将迎来超级大牛市。 最后，迈克尔转述了母亲过世时叔叔对他说的一句话：“好好享受生活，这绝不是带彩排的预演（Enjoy life. This is not a dress rehearsal）。” --- ### [06:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=373s) 芯片狂潮与史上最强 FOMO 话题转向如火如荼的股票市场。本提出疑问：当前市场是否正在上演自互联网泡沫以来最严重的 FOMO（错失恐惧症）？几乎每天都有资产或板块呈现出“核爆式”的暴涨行情——无论是戴尔（Dell）、英特尔（Intel）、闪迪（SanDisk）还是西部数据（Western Digital），个股动辄走出单年四位数的涨幅，展现出 1999 年式的亢奋。 英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在当天早晨公开发声，称迈威尔科技（Marvell Technology）有望成为下一家市值破万亿美元的公司，刺激 Marvell 盘前应声大涨 16%。迈克尔与本探讨指出，虽然 2020 至 2021 年也出现过以 GameStop 为代表的散户狂潮，但当时更多是“互联网式狂欢”（Internet fun times）；而眼下由芯片与人工智能引领的浪潮，背后依托着真实的业绩与产业资本开支，让人难以抗拒。对于仓位不足的投资者来说，当前的心理压力极为巨大。 - **标普 500 的双月爆发**：根据《华尔街日报》报道，在芯片股的强劲拉动下，标普 500 指数在 4 月和 5 月两个月内累计上涨 16%。自 1950 年以来，如此强劲的两个月涨幅此前仅出现过 4 次；在这 4 次历史样本中，该指数在随后的 6 个月内无一例外全部走高，涨幅中位数达 17%。 - **历史新高的数据规律**：根据财经博主山姆·罗（Sam Ro）整理的数据，标普 500 指数在刷新历史最高点后，有 99% 的概率会在接下来的一年内再度创出新的历史新高。 --- ### [08:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=491s) 历史镜像：1994 Netscape 对标 2022 ChatGPT 迈克尔直言自己通常不喜欢将两条不同历史时期的走势图进行生硬类比（Analog Chart），因为行情无非就“上涨、下跌、横盘”三种方向，想要找到两段重合的折线并不困难。然而，Bespoke Investment Group 最近发布的一张对比图却让他深受触动： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 互联网革命与AI浪潮时间线对比 accDescr: 对比网景浏览器发布与ChatGPT问世后纳斯达克875个交易日的行情演变 subgraph 互联网时代 ["1994年 互联网周期"] A["1994年12月19日<br/>Netscape 浏览器发布"] --> B["875个交易日走势<br/>科技股温和上行"] B --> C["1998至1999年<br/>纳斯达克指数全面暴走"] end subgraph 人工智能时代 ["2022年 AI 周期"] D["2022年11月<br/>ChatGPT 正式发布"] --> E["875个交易日走势<br/>形态与1994完全重合"] E --> F["当前时点：相当于1998年初<br/>主升浪行情或许才刚刚起步"] end ``` 该图将 1994 年 12 月 19 日 Netscape（网景浏览器）发布后 875 个交易日的纳斯达克走势，与 ChatGPT 发布后 875 个交易日的纳斯达克走势并列对比，两条曲线的形态几乎完全重合。更耐人寻味的是，在 1994 年周期的 875 个交易日之后，纳斯达克指数才真正开启了最为疯狂的超级指数级主升浪。本与迈克尔一致认为，从这一对比来看，当前所处的阶段仅仅相当于 1998 年年初，这意味着这轮科技大牛市持续的时间与上升的幅度，很可能将远远超出市场绝大多数人的预料。 ### [09:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=566s) 市场毫无恐惧？乔治·范德海登的警告与当下的情绪切换 节目由一段华尔街经典回忆展开。Ben 援引《华尔街日报》的一篇报道，讲述了富达（Fidelity）传奇基金经理乔治·范德海登（George Vanderheiden）的故事。范德海登曾在华尔街拥有最顶级的投资业绩记录之一，但在 1990 年代末，他坚信科技股泡沫即将破裂，因而主动回避科技股，转而重仓国债。然而他的逆势操作导致业绩一落千丈。2000 年 2 月，范德海登宣布退休，并在办公室白板上愤然写下："郁金香球茎大甩卖（Tulip bulbs for sale）"。他当时感慨道："你试图为了防范风险而管理投资组合，但市场并没有因此给予你回报。这个市场根本没有恐惧。"戏剧性的是，大约一个月后，科技泡沫见顶崩盘。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Vanderheiden's Contrarian Trap accDescr: George Vanderheiden shunned tech stocks, loaded up on Treasuries, was forced into retirement, only for the market to peak a month later. subgraph S1["1990 年代末策略"] A["看空科技泡沫"] --> B["回避科技股，重仓国债"] end subgraph S2["惨痛后果与退休"] B --> C["业绩严重落后同行"] C --> D["2000 年 2 月退休<br/>'郁金香球茎大甩卖'"] end subgraph S3["历史的讽刺"] D --> E["一个月后市场见顶崩盘"] end ``` Ben 认为，当下的市场完全可以套用范德海登当年的这句描述——这是一个"毫无恐惧"（no fear）的市场。尽管总有人不断跳出来预警泡沫破灭，但从行情表现来看，市场对风险毫无戒心。 对此，Michael 提出了略微不同的看法。他认为虽然在 6 月 2 日星期二这一天市场看似风平浪静，但市场的神经实际上非常脆弱。宏观策略师沃伦·派斯（Warren Pies）在 5 月 31 日曾发推特指出，尽管许多人预期会出现季节性见顶，但散户交易员依然高度紧张。在 5 月中旬仅仅 2% 的微小回调中，资金就疯狂涌入现金和货币市场 ETF。派斯的核心观点在于：强劲的价格上涨动能伴随防御性避险资金流，这绝不是市场大顶通常会出现的特征。 Michael 强调，投资者的情绪切换快得惊人。回顾不久前，当山姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）在播客上发表了某些言论后，市场上充斥着对 AI 叙事的看空论调；再往前看战争爆发导致的回调，或是对"美股七巨头"（Magnificent Seven）的集体唱衰，情绪总是在极度悲观与极度亢奋之间迅速摇摆。Ben 形象地打了个比方：市场就像行驶在平稳的 AI 轨道上的列车，偶尔会被地缘冲突或所谓的"解放日"等突发风险撞出轨道，但很快又会重新爬回轨道，投资者立刻回过神来感叹："哦对，还是 AI 驱动着这一切。" ### [12:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=734s) 超级 IPO 浪潮：基本面推升下的估值狂欢 根据高盛（Goldman Sachs）卡尔·昆塔尼亚（Carl Quintanilla）引述的数据，2026 年美国 IPO 募资总额预计将创下 2,250 亿美元的历史新高，远高于此前预测的 1,600 亿美元。这一融资体量直接碾压了金融危机以来的所有年份。仅 Anthropic、OpenAI 和 SpaceX 这三家公司合计的 IPO 募资金额，就超过了 1990 年代互联网泡沫时期所有 IPO 的总和（甚至超过 1990 年和 2000 年两个年份的加总）。虽然这一对比需要考虑当今庞大的市场总市值规模，但其募资体量依然令人震撼。 上周，AI 独角兽 Anthropic 刚刚以 9,650 亿美元的投后估值完成了高达 650 亿美元的 H 轮融资；仅仅四天之后，公司便宣布计划在今年晚些时候启动 IPO，并已递交了 S-1 招股书。Ben 忍不住吐槽新闻通稿一律声称"Anthropic 秘密提交了 S-1 表格"，幽默地反问道："这算哪门子秘密？全世界都在议论这件事！" Michael 坦言，虽然不可否认市场中混杂着狂热投机与过度乐观的成分，但这轮大牛市背后的底色依然是坚实的基本面。戴尔科技（Dell Technologies）便是典型例证：其最新季度销售额暴涨 88%，全年营收指引从先前的 1,380 亿至 1,400 亿美元大幅上调至 1,650 亿至 1,690 亿美元，消息公布后股价单日跳空暴涨 38%。Ben 感慨道，最匪夷所思的是，当下这波 AI 硬件浪潮的主角往往不是新成立的初创公司，而是戴尔、英特尔（Intel）、美光（Micron）、西部数据（Western Digital）等早已在科技行业摸爬滚打数十年的老牌巨头。 - **2026 年美国 IPO 募资预测**：上调至 2,250 亿美元（原先预期为 1,600 亿美元）。 - **三大超级巨头（Anthropic、OpenAI、SpaceX）**：IPO 募资总和超过 1990 年代互联网泡沫期所有上市公司的总和。 - **Anthropic 估值狂飙**：完成 650 亿美元 H 轮融资，投后估值达 9,650 亿美元，随后递交 S-1 招股申请。 - **戴尔营收暴增**：单季销售额激增 88%，全年营收指引上调至 1,650-1,690 亿美元，股价单日飙升 38%。 ### [14:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=869s) 《超级金钱》的隐喻：无人知晓时间的盛大舞会 针对当前的牛市心态，Michael 分享了他曾在 2017 年发过的一段名言。该名句出自以笔名"亚当·斯密"（Adam Smith）撰写《金钱游戏》（*The Money Game*）和《超级金钱》（*Supermoney*）的著名金融作家乔治·古德曼（George Goodman）。这段话被 Michael 誉为对当下牛市最贴切的刻画： > "我们都置身于一场美妙绝伦的舞会之中，每个杯子里都泛着香槟的气泡，轻柔的笑声在夏日的微风中回荡。按规则我们都知道，在某个特定的时刻，黑骑士定会破开宏伟的露台大门闯入，大开杀戒，驱散所有的幸存者。那些早早离场的人得以保全，但舞会是如此绚烂璀璨，谁也不愿在尚有时间的时候提前离去。于是所有人都在不停地询问：'现在几点了？几点了？'——然而，所有的时钟上都没有指针。" Michael 称赞这段文字堪称神作（"chef's kiss"）。他早在 2017 年就引用过这句话，因为当时就有无数人不断追问这场盛宴究竟何时终结。Ben 指出，投资者既需要清醒意识到泡沫过大可能引发衰退的风险，但也必须保持开放的心态：如果你对过去 15 年来科技对市场和生活的深远重塑视而不见，那说明你根本没有看懂现实。多头既然用真金白银的基本面业绩证明了自己，就理应获得市场的信任。 ### [16:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1008s) 美光市值破万亿与 DRAM 爆火：破纪录的半导体热潮 多头的狂欢在芯片巨头美光科技（Micron）身上体现得淋漓尽致。Michael 制作的一张图表显示，美光已成为美股第 11 家市值突破 1 万亿美元的企业，这意味着标普 500 指数排名前 10 的成分股市值全部达到或超过了万亿美元门槛。 Michael 特别指出，在这张万亿美元榜单之下，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）、沃尔玛（Walmart）甚至奈飞（Netflix）等家喻户晓的各行业霸主，目前的市值体量竟然全都被美光超越。彭博社（Bloomberg）的数据显示，在从 5,000 亿美元市值跃升至 1 万亿美元的交易日耗时统计中，美光创下了美股历史最快纪录；紧随其后以极速冲刺万亿市值的，同样是受益于存储芯片爆发的韩国双雄——三星电子（Samsung）与 SK 海力士（SK Hynix）。相比之下，微软（Microsoft）、伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）以及耗费了 1,000 多个交易日的 Alphabet，步伐都慢得多。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Fastest to 1 Trillion Market Cap accDescr: Memory chipmakers Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix surge from 500B to 1T faster than legacy tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft. subgraph SPRINT["极速突破记录（半导体/存储）"] M["美光科技 Micron<br/>历史最快破万亿记录"] S["三星电子 Samsung"] SK["SK 海力士 SK Hynix"] end subgraph STEADY["较长周期突破（传统科技/综合）"] MSFT["微软 Microsoft"] BRK["伯克希尔·哈撒韦 Berkshire"] GOOG["Alphabet<br/>历时超过 1,000 个交易日"] end SPRINT -.->|相比之下爆发力极强| STEADY ``` 彭博图表显示，美光的盈利预期正在呈爆炸式上扬。回顾其自 2017 年以来的过去 12 个月每股收益（EPS），再对比分析师对未来三个季度的平均预测，美光的业绩增长预期直接呈现出 5 倍到 10 倍的垂直拉升，走势图反差大到"看起来根本不真实"。这一轮爆发的疯狂之处在于，仅仅一两年前，市场上根本没有人能够准确预测到存储芯片行业会以这种速度迎来全方位的估值与盈利重估。 在狂热情绪的助推下，ETF 发行商 Roundhill 创造了历史。他们于 4 月初推出了专注存储半导体的 ETF——Roundhill Memory ETF（代码：DRAM）。自发行以来，该基金净值暴涨 127%，并且在短短 35 天内资产管理规模（AUM）便突破了 100 亿美元大关，成为 ETF 历史上吸金速度最快的标杆产品。 - **万亿美元俱乐部扩容**：美光成为第 11 家市值破万亿的美股上市公司，市值超越沃尔玛与摩根大通。 - **万亿冲刺速度纪录**：美光创下从 5,000 亿升至 1 万亿美元最快历史记录，三星电子与 SK 海力士紧随其后。 - **盈利预期暴涨**：未来三季度美光 EPS 预测出现 5 至 10 倍的飞跃式拉升。 - **Roundhill DRAM ETF 创纪录**：发行后涨幅达 127%，仅用 35 天资管规模便突破 100 亿美元，创全行业史上最快破百亿纪录。 ### [19:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1169s) 半导体牛市狂欢与暴跌风险：SMH 偏离度与止盈计划 两人讨论了美光（Micron）、闪迪（SanDisk）和 SK 海力士（SK Hynix）等芯片股的疯狂涨幅。迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）提到，相关半导体基金的资产规模截至前一天已经激增至 140 亿美元，感慨操盘者确实厉害，但在这种行情里“运气往往比能力更重要”（better to be lucky than good）。迈克尔进一步援引在节目 TCAF 上分享的一张图表，指出半导体 ETF（SMH）与其 200 日移动平均线之间的距离创下了自 2001 年有数据以来的历史极值，可能只有 1999 年互联网泡沫顶点能与之相提并论。他向听众发出真诚且严肃的警示：如果现在还在往这个赛道投入新资金，请务必设定好离场计划，坚决克制错失恐惧（FOMO）。 本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）对此表示认同，他指出目前许多投资者的账面浮盈过于庞大，一旦市场风吹草动引发警报，大家都会产生“必须立刻把利润装进口袋”的恐慌心理，极易在单日或单周内形成极其猛烈的雪崩式抛售潮（selling cascade）。迈克尔补充了一个令人心有余悸的现实例子：就在同年 3 月，美光公布了极其亮眼的“井喷式财报”（blowout numbers），结果其股价在随后的两三周内暴跌了 30%。迈克尔自嘲道：“我真的不想当那个扫兴泼冷水的人，但大家真的要小心。”他解释说，他们在自家的“牛排馆”（Porter House）动量策略中虽然重仓了这些芯片巨头，但只要市场触及止损或跌破既定风控规则，他们就会毫不犹豫地依纪律清仓。 - SMH 距离其 200 日均线的偏离度达到 2001 年以来的最高水平。 - 芯片股盈利盘极重，极易在业绩超预期后仍发生踩踏，如美光业绩大超预期后 2 至 3 周内回撤 30%。 - 面对动量极致行情，投资的关键是克服 FOMO 并建立清晰的离场与止盈机制。 --- ### [21:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1277s) AI 交易走向全球：中美股票齐头并进与格局重塑 本·卡尔森将视线从单一板块转向全球宏观市场，指出“AI 交易已经彻底全球化”。摩根大通资产管理公司（J.P. Morgan）的迈克尔·森巴莱斯特（Michael Cembalest）对比了一篮子中国 AI 概念股与美国 AI 概念股自 2024 年初以来的表现，两者的走势几乎步调一致，中国 AI 股票的涨幅甚至略微跑赢。与此同时，新兴市场 ETF（EEM）与纳斯达克 100 指数（QQQ）自 2024 年初以来的涨幅也几乎不相上下。 本由此引申出一个宏大推想：过去人们曾认为互联网能抹平世界的鸿沟，但实际上互联网并未显著动摇美国对全球科技霸权的绝对垄断；然而这一波 AI 浪潮或许不同，它有可能真正起到拉平竞技场（level the playing field）的作用，将世界其他经济体提升到与美国同等并行的水平。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI 交易全球化扩散逻辑 accDescr: 展示 AI 交易如何从中美股票联动扩散并可能改变全球科技格局 subgraph Capital["资本与市场联动 (2024 至今)"] US["美国 AI 股票篮子<br/>(纳斯达克 100 等)"] CN["中国 AI 股票篮子<br/>(表现甚至略超美股)"] EM["新兴市场资产<br/>(紧密跟踪纳指涨幅)"] US <-->|步调高度一致| CN US <-->|涨幅基本持平| EM end subgraph Impact["潜在范式转变"] Past["过去：互联网革命<br/>(巩固美国单一科技霸权)"] Future["未来：AI 革命<br/>(拉平全球竞技场，缩小与美差距)"] Past -.->|范式演进| Future end ``` --- ### [22:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1330s) AI 的看空逻辑：80% 内部循环营收与巨头 Capex 拷问 为了在狂热的多头叙事中保持清醒，本介绍了宏观研究机构 TS Lombard 策略师达里奥·帕金斯（Dario Perkins）在其播客节目（GlobalData）中提出的看空论点。帕金斯与同僚在节目中经常公开复盘彼此被打脸的宏观预测，本非常喜欢这种诚恳的互怼风格。帕金斯测算后指出，当前 AI 领域高达 80% 的营收实际上属于“内部循环收入”（circular revenue）——即资金主要是从谷歌、甲骨文、微软等少数科技巨头的资本开支（capex）流向英伟达及其他基础设施提供商，本质上是一群科技巨头在互相倒手、挪动椅子（shuffling the chairs around），AI 至今尚未真正大规模破圈变现渗透至更广泛的实体企业界。 本指出，帕金斯的担忧在于如果这种资本开支无法实现向跨行业真实生产力的“跃迁”，繁荣将面临巨大断崖。科技分析师本·汤普森（Ben Thompson）在播客中也观察到，英伟达近期已开始在季度财报中分拆超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）与非超大规模客户的营收明细，这正是为了回应外界对“这是否只是一场巨头自嗨的内部循环”（a big circle jerk）的尖锐质疑。本强调，此前看空 AI 的声音占据主导，而如今市场只剩下清一色的看多狂欢，因此更需要设立明确的观测里程碑（mile markers），客观验证看空逻辑何时被证伪或证实。 --- ### [23:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1433s) 战胜后视镜偏见：把交易逻辑写下来直面自负 迈克尔深有感触地分享了他年轻时作为新手投资者的关键教训。在职业生涯早期，他每做一笔买入或卖出都会把自己的逻辑完整手写下来。他笑称自己曾在 2011 年做空亚马逊（Amazon），并在三个月后重新翻看当初写下的交易理由，结果被自己的浅薄与错误迅速打醒，立刻意识到“自己根本不是什么下一个斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）”。 迈克尔认为，在当下的市场极端环境中这种记录尤为重要。因为无论未来市场怎么走，事后看起来都会显得无比“理所当然”——如果牛市再涨 30%，人们会觉得不可思议并伴随怀疑；但如果市场崩盘暴跌 30%，所有人都会在后视镜里宣称自己“早就预见到了，这明摆着是个泡沫”。迈克尔反驳道：“如果你真觉得这是显而易见的泡沫，那你现在就卖掉，或者去做空啊！”他强烈建议投资者把当下的想法写在纸上保留几个月，这能彻底打破自负并让人认清自身预测未来的无能。本赞同这一观点，指出这也是他坚持写博客和公司为客户制定投资政策说明书（IPS）的原因，白纸黑字能让人在波动中保持诚实并坚守初衷。 --- ### [25:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1534s) 没人能逃脱泡沫：牛顿、德鲁肯米勒与两个牛市时代 谈及泡沫与市场择时，本直言“没有任何人能准确择时泡沫，这绝不可能”。他举了艾萨克·牛顿爵士（Isaac Newton）的经典案例：作为人类有史以来最聪明的天才之一，牛顿依然在南海泡沫中被狂热吞噬，最终惨赔离场。迈克尔随即搬出了自己心目中最受推崇的投资传奇斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的惨痛教训。在 2000 年互联网泡沫见顶前，德鲁肯米勒已在市场叱咤风云近 20 年，早因做空英镑一战封神；面对当时的科技泡沫，他坚决看空并保持低仓位，但眼看市场狂飙，他觉得自己落伍了，甚至聘请了几个年轻人操盘，最终在大盘见顶前的“几个小时之内”彻底崩溃投降、全仓杀入科技股，结果短短 24 小时内巨亏 30 亿美元。当被问及从中吸取了什么教训时，德鲁肯米勒的回答极其经典：“什么都没学到。我明知道不该那么做，但我就是忍不住。” 随后，两人将目光转向 Duality Research 提供的一项市场特征对比，探讨当前牛市与以往的历史异同： | 市场阶段 | 标普 500 创新高特征 | 波动率指数（VIX）表现 | 市场心理与对冲行为 | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **2013 - 2020 年牛市** | 阶梯式稳步上扬（stair-step up） | VIX 极度低迷、读数平稳 | 市场陷入普遍的自满与无防备状态 | | **2020 年疫情后牛市** | 波动剧烈、震荡上行 | VIX 在新高时常伴随较高读数 | 投资者持续为对冲保护支付溢价，戒备心强 | 本总结道，数据表明疫情以来的这轮牛市正在以完全不同的逻辑运行：指数虽然不断向上爬坡，但并未出现 2010 年代那种毫无戒心的自满（complacency）。投资者即便在牛市反弹中也愿意高价购买下行对冲保护，这意味着市场处于一个更加谨慎防备的宏观背景中。迈克尔对此表示认可，并指出“恐惧虽然当下看似消失，但它卷土重来的速度往往比任何人的预期都要快得多”。节目的尾声，迈克尔预告次日将在《Talking Wealth》节目中与阿隆·狄龙（Aaron Dillon）专门录制一整期专题，深入探讨 SpaceX 即将到来的重磅 IPO。 ### [28:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1704s) 史诗级 IPO 与指数纳入门槛的争议 围绕 SpaceX 即将进行的公开募股，理财顾问们正面临铺天盖地的客户咨询，这无疑是“我们有生之年最炙手可热的 IPO”。大众的狂热程度甚至波及到了平时对市场漠不关心的普通人——Michael 透露，他的父亲前一天特意发来短信询问：“我该不该买 SpaceX 的 IPO 股票？”而父亲以往从不过问任何单只股票。Michael 的回答干脆利落：“别买。”尽管股票在挂牌前几个交易日很可能会冲高，但在他看来，这场 IPO 的底层机制隐藏着巨大的混乱。 对于市场热议的“SpaceX 甚至未来的 Anthropic 是否该被快速纳入宽基指数基金”，Ben 的态度相当淡定，认为完全没必要为此愤愤不平。在他看来，市值加权指数的核心逻辑就是按市值收录市场中最顶尖的企业；如果一家公司跻身全市场前 10 或前 15 名，却被拒之门外，反而显得荒谬绝伦。指数编制机构修改纳入规则也是合情合理，因为“这些规则又不是摩西从西奈山带下来的石碑法典”，时代变了，规则自然需要调整。 然而，Michael 对此并不买账。他指出的症结不在于最终是否纳入，而在于“快速通道（fast-track）”的时间窗口过于激进：在公司上市仅 15 天甚至短短 5 天内就强行塞进指数，简直匪夷所思。在如此仓促的时间里，市场根本来不及进行充分的价格发现（price discovery），反而极易滋生投机操作，让原本应当稳健的被动投资者沦为私募股权的“退场流动性（exit liquidity）”。 --- ### [30:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1840s) Matt Levine 的“逼空指数基金”剧本与现实测算 针对这场 IPO 背后的博弈，彭博专栏作家 Matt Levine 曾勾勒过一个“极致愤世嫉俗”的做局假设：一家超大独角兽可以通过精心设计的极低流通盘（tight float），精准收割被动指数基金。如果发行方只向最狂热的埃隆·马斯克死忠粉丝和散户出售极少比例的股票，在二级市场上将估值硬生生顶到 2 万亿美元，同时将绝大部分老股锁定；随后由于市值体量巨大，它被火速纳入标普 500 等核心指数。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 极致愤世嫉俗的 IPO 逼空机制 accDescr: 展示低流通盘超大独角兽如何利用指数基金被动买入规则制造流动性挤压 subgraph Manipulation["推高估值与锁定筹码"] A["极小流通比例 IPO"] --> B["狂热粉丝与散户高价抢筹"] B --> C["纸面估值飙升至 2 万亿美元<br/>老股大比例锁定"] end subgraph Squeeze["被动指数规则陷阱"] C --> D["触发大市值快速纳入指数规则"] D --> E["指数基金必须硬性配置 24% 筹码"] E --> F["市场上可买流通股严重不足<br/>引发指数基金多头挤压"] end ``` 鉴于标普 500 指数成分股平均约有 24% 的股份由指数基金持有，2 万亿美元市值意味着指数基金不得不被动吞下近 5000 亿美元的股票。当被动资金必须买入 24%，而全市场可交易的流通盘仅有 20% 时，缺乏议价权的指数基金只能被迫在任何价位持续竞价，从而演变成一场由发行方一手策划的“面向指数基金的史诗级逼空”。 不过，现实操作往往比极端的理论推演更为细致。彭博资讯（Bloomberg Intelligence）分析师团队测算指出，指数编制采用的是自由流通量加权（float-adjusted market cap）： - **实际被动需求测算**：彭博社 Lu Wang 及其同事援引 James Seyffart 与 Rob DuBoff 的数据分析，若标普跟随竞争对手开启快速纳入通道，跟踪指数的被动基金对 SpaceX 的买入需求约为 200 亿美元。 - **募资比例对应**：以 SpaceX 本次拟募集 750 亿美元资金计算，指数基金的需求大约占其 IPO 发行规模的四分之一。 - **指数真实权重**：市场策略师 Cali Cox 依据自由流通规则测算，SpaceX 在标普 500 指数中的实际排位大约在第 195 位左右，体量与安进（Amgen）、吉利德科学（Gilead）、Shopify 以及霍尼韦尔（Honeywell）相当，绝不会一上市就直接空降为占比 3% 的超级巨无霸。 --- ### [34:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2083s) 2500 亿美元抽血效应：市场能否承受天量新股供应？ 面对巨型独角兽的上市浪潮，Michael 抛出了一个略显激进但发人深省的“半成品脑洞”：监管是否应当对私有企业设定某种硬性门槛？例如，一旦私有估值突破某一特定上限，企业就不能再保持私有状态，亦或是严禁在 4 万亿美元天量估值上市时仅放出 4% 的微量流通股来拉抬股价。 这种担忧背后折射出核心的宏观流动性问题——**市场到底能承接多少新增股票供应？** 市场的资金池并非无限，高盛（Goldman Sachs）此前预测，随着 SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic 等超级 AI 与科技巨头相继筹备上市，新进入市场的股票募资规模可能高达 2000 亿至 2500 亿美元。当数百上千亿美元的新资产密集上市时，投资者必须通过抛售现有的其他持仓来腾挪资金，这势必会对整个存量市场的流动性造成巨大挤压与抽血效应。 --- ### [35:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2114s) 谷歌罕见增发 800 亿：AI 军备竞赛彻底变成重资产泥潭 正当市场为 IPO 供应发愁之际，科技巨头 Alphabet（Google）打破了多年沉寂，选择在公开市场进行高达 800 亿美元的股权融资（equity offering），这是谷歌自 2005 年以来首次增发股票。 这笔惊人交易中最引人瞩目的细节，在于沃伦·巴菲特治下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）果断出手，通过定向增发（private placement）出资 100 亿美元直接认购谷歌新股，且认购价格仅比当时市价折价约 4%。考虑到伯克希尔坐拥超 3000 亿美元的现金储备，且去年才开始建仓谷歌，这一巨额跟投立刻颠覆了许多人关于巴菲特“囤积现金作壁上观”的传统叙事。 一家现金流极其充沛的成熟科技巨鳄为何突然要向市场大规模要钱？答案全写在其 2026 年第一季度的财报电话会上： - **资本开支激增**：Alphabet 预计其 2026 全年资本支出（CapEx）将攀升至 1800 亿至 1900 亿美元之间，并明确预警 2027 年的 CapEx 还将在 2026 年的基础上“显著增加”。 - **造血速度难抵消耗**：在过去 12 个月中，谷歌自身创造的经营现金流高达 1740 亿美元，同时在过去一年中发行了 850 亿美元的债务工具。 - **后续发售计划**：除伯克希尔认购的 100 亿美元私募之外，公司还计划在第三季度进行约 400 亿美元的市价增发（ATM equity offering）。 这番操作引发了市场的强烈震动与反思。手握近 1750 亿经营现金流、借了 850 亿新债，竟然仍需额外增发 800 亿股票来维持健康资产负债表。Ben 总结认为，这向市场揭示了两个深层信号：一方面，AI 的计算需求和基础设施扩张极端迫切；另一方面，以往高利润、轻资产的互联网科技巨头，如今在算力与数据中心的军备竞赛中，已经被迫彻底转变为极度消耗资本的“重资产行业（capital-intensive businesses）”。而 Michael 则幽默地得出结论：看到谷歌如此疯狂地砸钱扩充算力设施，“我得到的唯一清晰启示就是——我得赶紧加仓英伟达（NVIDIA）。” ### [38:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2281s) 巨额供给冲击与市场的“见顶信号”档案 随着市场上大量新股供应接踵而至，市场正面临消化能力的严峻考验。此前某些巨头的大规模筹资操作引发了讨论，其中包括发行优先股，而官方给出的部分理由是为了支付税单——企业向员工发放了大量类似现金薪酬的股票，员工因此背负高昂的个人所得税。尽管有人反驳称“现金具有同质替代性，公司完全可以用日常营运资金来支付”，但这一说法依然成为其融资的由头之一。盘面反馈则十分迅速，股票在盘前下跌 2.5%，开盘后跌幅更是一路扩大至 4.5%，此前所谓的“4% 折价认购”红利在几分钟内便荡然无存。 面对谷歌（Google）股价跌至 355 美元附近的波动，两人不由得调侃起市场的神经质。Michael 戏谑地提出，投资者是不是应该专门建立一个“见顶信号档案库”，把每次异动都记录在案，因为总会有一个事件在未来被奉为神准的顶部指标。正如市场在多年后回看时常常感叹的那样：“还记得当年谷歌大规模融资吗？那就是见顶的标志！”然而，现实中的市场周期转折点从来都不是那么简单明了。 --- ### [39:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2344s) 韩国股市的投机盛宴与散户动向 随后话题转向了海外市场的极端行情。Ben 提到最近有韩国读者在当地书店拍下了自己著作的照片发给他，在交流中对方直言，韩国市场的狂热与投机程度“远超外界想象”。这促使两人对比起本轮行情与 2021 年散户 Meme 股热潮的差异。与 2021 年身边亲友疯狂打听股票不同，当下普通散户的噪音明显少得多。Michael 认为，虽然散户确实重度参与，但本轮上涨更多是由专业机构主导；或者说，仍在市场里的老散户早已“全仓押注（all the way in）”，只是没有像 2021 年那样吸引大批全新的场外小白进场，上一轮狂欢已提前透支了新增散户的需求。 而在数据层面，韩国市场的暴涨令人咋舌： - **十年长跑逆袭**：代表韩国市场的 ETF（EWY）过去十年的总回报已经正式超越标普 500 指数，且全部超额收益几乎均来自过去这一年的暴力拉升，彻底扭转了截至 2024 年的大幅跑输局面。 - **市值反超多国**：彭博数据显示，韩国股市总市值相继超越加拿大和英国后，如今更是超越了增长陷入停滞的印度。 - **疯狂的单品 ETF**：根据彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 的数据，在香港上市的 2 倍做多 SK 海力士 ETF（2x SK Hynix ETF）年内资产管理规模（AUM）暴增 10 倍，跃居该市场第三大 ETF，单只基金竟然占据了香港 ETF 总资产的 8.5%。“这在规模上相当于美国出现了一只 1.3 万亿美元的单一股票杠杆 ETF，简直不可思议。” - **天量流动性**：该 2 倍 SK 海力士 ETF 日均交易额超过 10 亿美元，按市场体量折算，相当于美国市场单只产品日成交 1500 亿美元，创造了前所未有的投机奇观。 --- ### [41:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2476s) 科技股独大与 8 万亿货基的铁壁防御 视线回到美股，市场的结构分化正变得愈发极端。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）的高级投资策略师 Kevin Gordon 指出，标普 500 指数虽然与自身 200 日移动均线拉开了极大的偏离度，但成份股中站上 200 日线的比例却步履蹒跚，指数的繁荣几乎全靠少数几家超大盘科技巨头在苦苦支撑。 机构资金的流向也印证了这种近乎极端的抱团。Strategas 的 ETF 策略师 Todd Sohn 统计发现，自 3 月低点以来，科技板块的累计净流入约为 300 亿美元，而剔除科技股后的其他全部板块累计净流出高达 40 亿美元。对冲基金巨头 Dan Loeb 在播客上也直言不讳地承认，科技股是其迄今为止最大的风险敞口，因为“市场的大势就在这里”。在如今的市场格局下，想要彻底规避科技股，就等于主动剔除半个美股市场，这是一场风险极高的反向豪赌。 与此同时，现金端则呈现出另一番景象。全美货币市场基金的规模已攀升至 8.28 万亿美元的新高。Ben 毫不客气地给自己记上一功，强调自己此前的判断完全正确：这笔巨资根本不会轻易流出。原本市场预期美联储会持续激进降息从而逼出存款，但由于利率维持高位，货币市场基金仍能提供 3.5% 至 4% 的无风险回报，既安稳又舒适。对于普通人而言，这是一笔绝佳的理财资产，但它并没有像死多头所幻想的那样，转化为源源不断涌入股市的流动性活水。 --- ### [42:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2576s) 个人储蓄率腰斩：财富效应下的“反直觉”现实 经济专栏作家 Heather Long 披露的一组数据在业内引发震动：美国个人储蓄率从 2025 年 4 月的 5.5% 骤降至 2026 年 4 月的 2.6%。许多分析师第一反应是拉响警报，认为在高通胀和工资增长乏力的挤压下，美国普通民众的生活已被逼入绝境，甚至连钱都存不下来。 然而，Ben 指出这种凭直觉的悲观解读完全偏离了现实。在经济学上，这恰恰是经典的“财富效应（Wealth Effect）”在起作用： - **繁荣期的自然规律**：当房产、股票等资产价格大幅飙升时，居民的账面净资产剧增，心理上会觉得“已经足够富有，无需再拼命存钱”，储蓄率随之走低。这种现象在 1990 年代的互联网繁荣期以及历史上每一次大牛市中都曾反复上演。 - **负相关关系验证**：金融分析师 Mike Zaccardi 引用美银（Bank of America）的图表证明，储蓄率往往与家庭净财富呈显著的负相关关系。正如两人所言：“只有在世道艰难、前途未卜时，人们才会出于恐惧而收紧钱包拼命存钱；而当财富膨胀时，消费和低储蓄才是常态。” ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 资产牛市对储蓄行为的影响链路 accDescr: 展示资产价格上涨如何通过财富效应导致个人储蓄率反直觉下降 subgraph 市场与账面表现 A["股市/房地产资产繁荣"] --> B["家庭净资产大幅攀升"] end subgraph 心理与消费行为 B --> C["安全感提升与财富幻觉"] C --> D["预防性储蓄动力下降"] D --> E["个人储蓄率骤降至 2.6%"] end ``` --- ### [44:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2651s) AI 恐慌蔓延：杰文斯悖论与科技圈的生存焦虑 最后，讨论聚焦到了人工智能对就业市场的冲击。阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo）首席经济学家 Torsten Slok 结合 ADP 周度就业数据提出了一个乐观视角：眼下正在上演“杰文斯悖论（Jevons Paradox）”——更廉价高效的技术反而会催生出更庞大的需求与更多的就业岗位。虽然大家都渴望这种双赢局面成真，但 Michael 坦言，自己读完 Citrine 报告等悲观预测后心情非常沉重，即便目前下任何结论都为时尚早，技术对特定群体的撕裂已经极为真切。 首当其冲遭遇剧震的正是科技从业者本身。硅谷软件工程师们眼睁睁看着自身岗位被代码模型吞噬，不少人陷入惊慌失措的状态，甚至四处疾呼“你们根本不知道未来有多可怕”。Ben 和 Michael 调侃道，科技圈的技术智商（IQ）虽高，但情商（EQ）和对复杂人性的理解却普遍迟钝，往往陷入非黑即白的极端推演： - 《纽约时报》专栏作家 Kevin Roose 提到，某 AI 顶尖实验室的员工在茶水间闲聊时竟然在讨论：“你的最后 300 天工作打算怎么过？” - 财经博主 Bucco Capital 则辛辣讽刺道，如今这些 AI 实验室所鼓吹的终局，在现实社会制度中根本无法容纳，“他们的归宿要么是进监狱，要么是被收编为政府雇员”。 - 两人一致认为，如果所谓“AI 将瞬间消灭 5000 万个工作岗位”的极端言论成真，人类社会的政治与法律机制绝不会坐以待毙、任由社会秩序崩塌。 在畅想具体应用时，Michael 提到朋友向他展示的 Google Gemini Spark 等日程管家功能，这代表着 AI 真正能为日常生活减负的落地形态。他笑称自己最希望技术能帮自己解决的痛点极其微小而现实——比如帮他彻底打理好碎片琐事，让他再也不用亲自点开烦人的社交媒体。 ### [46:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2806s) AI 智能体与信息过载：省时还是创造更多工作？ 讨论从对社交平台 Twitter 的复杂情感展开。Michael 直言平台如今就像一个“污水坑”（cesspool），令人心烦，但不可否认的是，播客节目的很多绝佳内容与图表依然源自于此。Ben 指出，只要设置好合适的过滤器，Twitter 依然是个宝藏库。然而 Michael 坦言自己容易被其中的负面情绪裹挟，因此他极度渴望能有一个专属的 AI 智能体（Agent）来代劳：让智能体通读所有播客的逐字稿，找出像 Mike Zaccardi、Carl Quintanilla、Eric Balchunas 等常被引用的博主，像 Daily Chartbook 一样直接提炼并推送精选图表。Ben 顺势提到 Gavin Baker 在 Patrick O'Shaughnessy 的播客中分享的用法——让 AI 自动监听并总结所有关于 AI 的播客内容。 随后，Michael 描绘了更多 AI 智能体在日常生活中的应用场景。比如让 AI 每天自动在 Chipotle 的点餐系统里选好一份纽约市的卷饼碗（Chipotle bowl），停留在提交订单前的最后一步以抓取每日价格，从而自动绘制长期通胀趋势图。此外，为了抢 NBA 总决赛的门票，以往需要人工反复刷新，而现在完全可以让 Agent 自动盯盘。Ben 对此提出了尖锐的质疑：人们总以为 AI 会帮人类节省时间，但事实上它只会“带来更多工作”。Ben 分享了此前听到某位科技大佬一面高呼 AI 将摧毁所有人类工作，一面兴奋地宣称自己用 AI 做过的最酷的事情居然是“给手机相册分类”。Ben 反问：“这对人类到底有什么实际意义？这不过是多找了些原本根本不会去做的琐事罢了。”而 Michael 则笑着承认，作为一个注意力极度活跃的人，他乐于接受 AI 带来更多可做的事情。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI 智能体应用与生产力悖论 accDescr: 展示 Michael 设想的自动化任务与 Ben 提出的生产力悖论之间的对比结构。 subgraph SG1["AI 智能体落地设想"] A["Twitter 内容过滤与图表提炼"] B["Chipotle 订单自动抓价监控通胀"] C["NBA 总决赛票务行情自动盯盘"] end subgraph SG2["现实生产力悖论"] D["初衷: 自动化节约时间"] E["现实: 催生原不存在的边缘琐碎任务"] F["结果: 人类工作量与专注度消耗不降反升"] end SG1 --> D D --> E E --> F ``` --- ### [49:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2966s) 绝不卖币的 Michael Saylor 罕见套现，MicroStrategy 承压 话题随后转向加密货币市场，Michael 用一个略显生硬的过渡，调侃起 MicroStrategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 的言行不一。曾在 2025 年 2 月发推高呼“哪怕卖掉一个肾，也绝不要卖掉手中的比特币”的 Saylor，如今却迎来了局面的反转。《华尔街日报》报道指出，MicroStrategy 上周出售了 32 枚比特币，套现约 250 万美元。虽然 32 枚在公司庞大的持仓中只是九牛一毛，但这却是该公司自 2022 年底加密寒冬以来的首次净卖出，原因推测是为了偿付优先股股息等固定财务义务。 更令 Michael 忍俊不禁的是 Saylor 对《华尔街日报》给出的辩解逻辑：“如果你卖掉 1 枚比特币是为了买入 10 枚比特币，技术上你是卖出了 1 枚，但经济实质上你多买了 9 枚。”Michael 吐槽这种荒唐的辞令简直就像前 NBA 教练 Kenny Atkinson 的赛后分析风格一样苍白可笑。Ben 则认为，Saylor 成为“被迫卖家”（forced seller）短期对币圈是利空，但长期反而是利好，因为 Saylor 作为比特币的门面人物对行业并没有什么健康帮助。在节目录制时，比特币价格在 68,000 美元附近下挫，MicroStrategy 股价单日暴跌 7%，较历史高点回撤幅度已达约 70%。两人感慨，那些全仓押注该股票的投资者如今正经历残酷的资产缩水。 --- ### [51:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3072s) 房地产凛冬：房产中介的转行潮与运气的不公 随后 Ben 引入了一则关于美国房地产市场的报道，聚焦于高利率环境下房地产中介遭遇的生存危机。报道讲述了房产经纪人 Kim Taylor 的经历：她在 2023 年中与丈夫创立了自己的独立经纪公司，团队一度扩张至 13 人；然而到了 2024 年，飙升的房贷利率和居高不下的房价彻底冻结了市场交易，房源滞销。团队中大部分中介不得不去兼职甚至另寻全职工作维持生计，Kim 的丈夫也去了学区打工，Kim 绝望地形容公司“变成了不断失血的动脉，过去 11 个月是整个职业生涯中最痛苦的时刻”。 - **新人中介收入惨淡**：2024 年拥有 2 年及以下执业经验的中介，全年平均仅达成 3 笔交易，总毛收入只有 8,100 美元；即便达成 10 笔交易的中介，全年毛收入也仅约 58,100 美元。 - **全职比例触底**：美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）2025 年的调查显示，仅有 71% 的中介将此作为唯一职业，创下历史最低纪录。 Ben 与 Michael 深入探讨了“运气与时机”在人生中的决定性作用。在牛市期间，大众往往嘲讽房产中介“凭什么拿 5% 的佣金佣金提成”，然而当下的萧条完全是宏观环境与利率突变造成的，中介群体没有犯任何错误，却遭到了市场的无情抛弃。Michael 联想到自己的人生经历，深有感触地坦言：自己能有今天的成就，一方面固然有辛勤付出的汗水，但更关键的是当年在火车站偶然遇到 Josh Brown 的“绝对奇迹”。25 岁时的 Michael 处境极其糟糕，是朋友圈里唯一失业且毫无就业竞争力的人，完全陷在自己愚蠢决定的恶果之中；相比之下，那些因为行业突然熄火而被“抽掉地毯”的普通中介，其生计遭到摧毁才是真正令人心酸的悲剧。 --- ### [54:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3251s) 院线复苏与迷因股幻灭：AMC 的虚假反弹 vs 真正的内容爆发 最后，两人探讨了院线电影行业的触底反弹。数据显示，AMC 娱乐录得了自 2019 年以来最高的 5 月观影人次纪录。Michael 开玩笑称自己“踩准了电影复苏的赛道，却买错了股票”——他长期持有 IMAX，表现平稳，而濒临破产的廉价股 AMC 却在过去两天内因为脱离破产边缘的预期暴涨了约 40%（从不到 1 美元涨了 2 美元左右）。 Ben 随即泼了冷水，指出 AMC 的这种暴涨只是死里逃生的技术性喘息，其股价相较于 2021 年迷因股（Meme Stock）狂潮的历史高点依然下跌了整整 99.4%。两人回顾起当年 AMC 与 GameStop 并列为迷因股时代代表图腾的荒谬景象，均感叹恍如隔世。不过 Ben 与 Michael 一致认为，与当年脱离基本面的散户投机狂热不同，当前的院线复苏是一个真实的行业现象，真正引人注目的在于当下推动电影院重焕生机的两部重磅大片所引发的观影潮。 ### [55:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3329s) 独立恐怖片逆袭与好莱坞旧IP的衰退 Michael Batnick 兴奋地回顾了近期的北美院线格局。对比迪士尼重头戏《曼达洛人》（The Mandalorian）在次周五仅录得 650 万美元（跌幅高达 70%）的惨淡表现，低成本原创恐怖片正在书写惊人奇迹。根据热门网络都市传说改编的电影《后室》（The Backrooms）首周末斩获 8100 万美元票房，而另一部独立恐怖片《Obsession》全球票房也即将突破 1 亿美元大关。Michael 感慨两部名不见经传的新作竟然双双碾压庞大的星战巨制。他提到自己在播客《The Big Picture》中听到了对《后室》导演 Kane Parsons 的访谈——该项目获准立项时，Parsons 只有 18 岁，如今电影上映也才 20 岁。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 影视市场更迭对比图 accDescr: 对比传统大IP电影的暴跌与低成本独立恐怖片依靠网络文化爆发的现象 subgraph Traditional["传统好莱坞大IP"] A["《星战/曼达洛人》"] --> B["次周五仅收 650 万美元"] B --> C["票房断崖式下跌 70%"] end subgraph IndieHorror["新一代网络原创恐怖片"] D["Kane Parsons (20岁)<br/>YouTube 原生 IP《后室》"] --> E["首周末爆收 8100 万美元"] F["Curry Barker (百万成本)<br/>独立恐怖片《Obsession》"] --> G["全球票房破 1 亿美元"] end ``` Michael 接着分享了有趣的家庭琐事：他看完电影回家后，儿子 Kobe 竟然脱口而出：“爸爸，你看过《后室》了？”Michael 诧异儿子是如何知道的，Kobe 回答是“在 Roblox 上玩过”。原来《后室》起初是一个在 YouTube 上横空出世的短片系列，累计 22 个视频播放量超 2.24 亿次。Michael 去电影院前完全属于盲看（"raw-dogged it"），没看过预告，也不知道网络出处。周五晚上 8 点 50 分的场次座无虚席，前后至少排了三场，散场出来时仍能看到无数年轻人涌向影院。同事兼资深影迷 Bill Art 发信息说自己不知该如何评价这部片子，Michael 回复说自己深爱这种变化：“我极度喜欢这种现象正在发生。虽然我不算爱这部片子本身，但里头有我深爱的部分。更多怪异的尝试、更多冒险创新？双手赞成！”现场银幕光线明亮时，Michael 看到全场年轻观众全神贯注地死盯着银幕，完全没有人碰手机。 - 《曼达洛人》次周五仅取得 650 万美元，跌幅达 70%。 - 《后室》以 8100 万美元创下导演 Kane Parsons 的现象级开画纪录；其 YouTube 原生系列拥有超 2.24 亿次播放。 - 导演 Curry Barker 仅用 100 万美元预算拍摄《Obsession》，票房直冲 1 亿美元。 --- ### [58:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3536s) 恐怖片成为新时代的“西部片”与观影分歧 Ben Carlson 抛出一个行业观察：恐怖片如今在院线的主导地位，正如同几十年前超级英雄电影统治银幕，甚至可以对标 20 世纪五六十年代无处不在的“西部片”。Michael 非常认同，指出这主要归因于极高的投入产出比与极低的试错成本——好莱坞给新晋导演 Curry Barker 仅仅 100 万美元预算，就换来了过亿回报。 两人的观影偏好随即引发了一阵逗趣的拌嘴。Ben 调侃道，Michael 和朋友给出的评价是“我绝对不会再看第二遍”，这听起来根本不是什么强有力的安利。Ben 直言自己虽然热爱电影，但恐怖片对自己完全毫无吸引力：“恐怖片连我的心跳都加速不了，对我没任何效果。”Michael 则反驳称，这绝对不适合窝在沙发上用流媒体打发时间，去电影院体验一次那种令人毛骨悚然的群体战栗是 100% 值得的体验，开场桥段的惊悚感足以让人屏息。 --- ### [01:00:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3640s) 惊悚神剧《Half Man》与客串《暗影蜘蛛侠》 两人的话题转向近期的剧集推荐。Ben 提到自己和妻子正在追剧《Half Man》，目前只剩最后一集。他形容这是他看过最让人窒息、焦虑感拉满的剧集之一，第一集看完甚至对妻子说“我撑不下去了，这剧太压抑了”，但剧情随后如同磁铁般把人牢牢吸住，既黑暗扭曲又情感丰沛。Michael 兴奋地赞同，将这种紧绷焦虑比作“打了人类生长激素（HGH）的《原钻》（Uncut Gems）”，并称其为近些年看过的最顶级、最怪诞但完成度极高的迷你剧集之一。 随后，Michael 激动地披露了一件私藏两年的秘密经历。他的一位在亚马逊影业（Amazon Studios）担任高管的朋友两年前告诉他，打算把 Michael 的名字写进尼古拉斯·凯奇主演的真人剧集《暗影蜘蛛侠》（Spider-Man Noir）中。随着该剧播出，Michael 在第 3 集中惊喜“登场”： > 尼古拉斯·凯奇扮演的暗影蜘蛛侠潜入一家医院，在外面翻找伪造证件时念叨：“Batnick，Batnick，就是这个了。”随后他大步踏入医院病房宣布：“我是 Batnick 警官（Officer Batnick）。” Michael 原本指望孩子们在电视上看到老爸名字被凯奇念出来时会震惊到“脑子融化”，结果儿女们反应异常冷漠，淡淡地一句“哦，爸爸在蜘蛛侠里啊”就完事了。Ben 笑着打趣：“孩子永远是最擅长让你认清现实的人。” --- ### [01:03:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3780s) 播客《The Rewatchables》斯皮尔伯格的高光对谈 在尾声部分，Michael 迫不及待地与观众分享一段带给他极大快乐（用意第绪语“nachas”形容这种由衷的欣慰与喜悦）的音频。在他心目中，Bill Simmons 旗下的电影重温播客《The Rewatchables》是他有史以来最爱的播客节目，没有之一。在近期一期节目中，主播 Sean Fennessey 采访了传奇大导演史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格（Steven Spielberg）。 节目中播放的原声片段里，Sean 指出库布里克在《奇爱博士》（Dr. Strangelove）中 Major Kong 的台词是“点燃爆炸螺栓（Fire the explosive bolts）”，而在《2001太空漫游》（2001: A Space Odyssey）中，舱门标识也是“注意：爆炸螺栓（Caution: explosive bolts）”。斯皮尔伯格被这个微小而精妙的电影致敬细节深深打动，直呼：“你们知道吗？能和你们聊这部电影就已经很棒了，但这个独家洞察直接点亮了我整整一天！”Michael 赞叹道，看到懂电影的年轻人给大导演上一课，简直是该节目历史上最棒的高光时刻。Ben 随后顺着话题聊到了近期在 Netflix 上观看的马丁·肖特（Martin Short）纪录片，回顾其加拿大湖畔夏季度假屋中与汤姆·汉克斯等明星家庭相聚的家庭录像带。 ### [01:04:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3887s) 好莱坞老友记与名人的私下度假时光 谈话由一段关于好莱坞圈内秘闻与家庭录影带的讨论收尾。嘉宾们提到史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格（Steven Spielberg）与其家庭的一段往事：当时大家的孩子年龄相仿，聚在一起度过假期便显得顺理成章。纪录片或节目中展示了这些影坛巨匠们当年的家庭自拍录像，画面里马丁·肖特（Martin Short）和汤姆·汉克斯（Tom Hanks）竟然私下在斯皮尔伯格面前即兴对戏表演，整套互动令人惊叹且极富趣味。主持人由衷感慨，看到这些顶级巨星私底下竟是如此亲密无间的老友，确实非常难得且引人入胜，绝对值得找来一看。 ### [01:05:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3906s) 市场狂欢、周期宿命与下期辩论伏笔 随着话题回到宏观大势与当下的资本市场，迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）与本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）共同感叹：“活在当下是何等幸运，做一名投资者又是何等精彩（What a time to be alive. What a time to be an investor）。”迈克尔还惟妙惟肖地模仿起了著名脱口秀主持人杰瑞·斯普林格（Jerry Springer）的标志性语气开玩笑：“如果你和我一样正在享受生活中的美好时光，请心怀感激。照顾好自己。”话锋一转，他也提醒不是每个人眼下都过得顺利。对于从事市场分析和资产管理的人来说，眼前这轮行情充满戏剧性，是一段日后必将被频频回顾的历史时刻。 针对眼前的繁荣是否会走向崩塌，两人展开了一场关于周期的简短交锋。本·卡尔森直言不讳地指出，虽然希望这不会演变成一场破裂的泡沫，但根据市场规律，“彩虹的尽头终究会伴随着痛苦”。一切皆有周期，问题只在于这个周期终点是在未来5到7年、1年还是3年后到来，但阵痛绝不会缺席，投资者必须提前做好心理准备。迈克尔则立刻接招，表示既然节目一直在强调保持开放的心态（keep an open mind），下周他将站在反方立场进行辩驳，论证“这轮繁荣未必非得以惨淡收场不可”。本试图补充说明这不一定非要由 AI 引起，迈克尔立即笑着制止他“别往回撤退（Don't hedge）”，既然放了话就正面交锋。本最终承认周期规律不可违，繁荣终会结束，但其持续的时间完全可能远超大众的想象。 最后，主持人在片尾音乐中向听众与发来邮件的观众致谢，祝愿大家早夏愉快，并以标志性的“Go Knicks”为本期节目画上了句号。 - 本·卡尔森的核心预警：市场万物皆具周期性（everything is cyclical），繁荣无论持续1年、3年还是5至7年，最终都会迎来阵痛期。 - 迈克尔·巴特尼克的反向观点：繁荣的周期可能持续得比大多数人预期的更久，且不一定会以崩盘悲剧收场，双方约定下期节目就此展开正面辩论。 ## Notable quotes > [00:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=48s) 好好享受生活，这绝不是带彩排的预演（Enjoy life. This is not a dress rehearsal）。 — Michael Batnick > [09:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=566s) 郁金香球茎大甩卖（Tulip bulbs for sale） — George Vanderheiden > [09:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=566s) 你试图为了防范风险而管理投资组合，但市场并没有因此给予你回报。这个市场根本没有恐惧。 — George Vanderheiden > [14:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=869s) 我们都置身于一场美妙绝伦的舞会之中，每个杯子里都泛着香槟的气泡，轻柔的笑声在夏日的微风中回荡。按规则我们都知道，在某个特定的时刻，黑骑士定会破开宏伟的露台大门闯入，大开杀戒，驱散所有的幸存者。那些早早离场的人得以保全，但舞会是如此绚烂璀璨，谁也不愿在尚有时间的时候提前离去。于是所有人都在不停地询问：'现在几点了？几点了？'——然而，所有的时钟上都没有指针。 — George Goodman > [19:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1169s) 运气往往比能力更重要（better to be lucky than good）。 — Michael Batnick > [23:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1433s) 如果你真觉得这是显而易见的泡沫，那你现在就卖掉，或者去做空啊！ — Michael Batnick > [25:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=1534s) 什么都没学到。我明知道不该那么做，但我就是忍不住。 — Stanley Druckenmiller > [35:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2114s) 看到谷歌如此疯狂地砸钱扩充算力设施，我得到的唯一清晰启示就是——我得赶紧加仓英伟达（NVIDIA）。 — Michael Batnick > [49:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2966s) 哪怕卖掉一个肾，也绝不要卖掉手中的比特币 — Michael Saylor > [49:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=2966s) 如果你卖掉 1 枚比特币是为了买入 10 枚比特币，技术上你是卖出了 1 枚，但经济实质上你多买了 9 枚。 — Michael Saylor > [51:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3072s) 变成了不断失血的动脉，过去 11 个月是整个职业生涯中最痛苦的时刻 — Kim Taylor > [01:03:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3780s) 你们知道吗？能和你们聊这部电影就已经很棒了，但这个独家洞察直接点亮了我整整一天！ — Steven Spielberg > [01:05:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4&t=3906s) 活在当下是何等幸运，做一名投资者又是何等精彩（What a time to be alive. What a time to be an investor）。 — Michael Batnick ## Mentioned Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson, Invesco, Dell, Intel, SanDisk, Western Digital, Marvell Technology, Jensen Huang, George Vanderheiden, Warren Pies, Sam Altman, Carl Quintanilla, Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, George Goodman (Adam Smith), Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, Roundhill DRAM ETF, Michael Cembalest, Dario Perkins, TS Lombard, Ben Thompson, Stanley Druckenmiller, Isaac Newton, Matt Levine, James Seyffart, Rob DuBoff, Cali Cox, Alphabet (Google), Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Eric Balchunas, Kevin Gordon, Todd Sohn, Dan Loeb, Heather Long, Mike Zaccardi, Torsten Slok, Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy, Kim Taylor, AMC Entertainment, Kane Parsons, Curry Barker, Steven Spielberg, Sean Fennessey, Martin Short, Tom Hanks ## Video description On episode 467 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: peak FOMO, chip stocks going nuclear, 1990s stock market flashbacks, trillion dollar IPOs, the AI trade is global, the bear case, a tale of two bull markets, bad luck in the real estate industry, South Korea's boom, movies are back and much more. This episode is sponsored by Invesco. Visit https://www.invesco.com/ to learn more. ► 00:00 - Invesco Ad ► 00:48 - Intro ► 06:13 - Stock Market ► 28:11 - SpaceX IPO ► 34:43 - How Much Supply Can the Market Handle? ► 39:01 - Investor Behavior ► 42:55 - The Economy ► 44:08 - AI ► 49:26 - Crypto ► 51:12 - Real Estate ► 54:11 - Entertainment & Recommendations 👕 Check out The Compound shop: https://idontshop.com 🎙️Listen to our podcasts: TCAF: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/ Animal Spirits: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/animalspirits/ Ask The Compound: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/ATC/ The Compound Newsletter: https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. #thecompound #investing #stockmarket [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZUqx61qbi4)

[0:48] Michael Batnick: 好好享受生活，这绝不是带彩排的预演（Enjoy life. This is not a dress rehearsal）。 [9:26] George Vanderheiden: 郁金香球茎大甩卖（Tulip bulbs for sale） [9:26] George Vanderheiden: 你试图为了防范风险而管理投资组合，但市场并没有因此给予你回报。这个市场根本没有恐惧。 [14:29] George Goodman: 我们都置身于一场美妙绝伦的舞会之中，每个杯子里都泛着香槟的气泡，轻柔的笑声在夏日的微风中回荡。按规则我们都知道，在某个特定的时刻，黑骑士定会破开宏伟的露台大门闯入，大开杀戒，驱散所有的幸存者。那些早早离场的人得以保全，但舞会是如此绚烂璀璨，谁也不愿在尚有时间的时候提前离去。于是所有人都在不停地询问：'现在几点了？几点了？'——然而，所有的时钟上都没有指针。 [19:29] Michael Batnick: 运气往往比能力更重要（better to be lucky than good）。 [23:53] Michael Batnick: 如果你真觉得这是显而易见的泡沫，那你现在就卖掉，或者去做空啊！ [25:34] Stanley Druckenmiller: 什么都没学到。我明知道不该那么做，但我就是忍不住。 [35:14] Michael Batnick: 看到谷歌如此疯狂地砸钱扩充算力设施，我得到的唯一清晰启示就是——我得赶紧加仓英伟达（NVIDIA）。 [49:26] Michael Saylor: 哪怕卖掉一个肾，也绝不要卖掉手中的比特币 [49:26] Michael Saylor: 如果你卖掉 1 枚比特币是为了买入 10 枚比特币，技术上你是卖出了 1 枚，但经济实质上你多买了 9 枚。 [51:12] Kim Taylor: 变成了不断失血的动脉，过去 11 个月是整个职业生涯中最痛苦的时刻 [63:00] Steven Spielberg: 你们知道吗？能和你们聊这部电影就已经很棒了，但这个独家洞察直接点亮了我整整一天！ [65:06] Michael Batnick: 活在当下是何等幸运，做一名投资者又是何等精彩（What a time to be alive. What a time to be an investor）。

Michael's uncle: Enjoy life. This is not a dress rehearsal. [5:00] Ben Carlson: This is the top... We're going down from here. [8:13] George Vanderheiden: Tulip bulbs for sale [8:13] George Vanderheiden: You try to manage the portfolio for risk, but the market hasn't rewarded you for it. The market has no fear. [12:14] 'Adam Smith' (George Goodman): We are all at a wonderful ball where the champagne sparkles in every glass, and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know by the rules that at some moment the black horseman will come shattering through the great terrace doors, wreaking vengeance and scattering the survivors. Those who leave early are saved, but the ball is so splendid, no one wants to leave while there is still time. So that everyone keeps asking, 'What time is it? What time is it?' But none of the clocks have any hands. [20:00] Michael Batnick: When Micron reported its blowout numbers last quarter... the stock fell 30% in about 2 weeks... If and when they break our rules, they'll get sold. [23:53] Stanley Druckenmiller: Nothing. I knew I shouldn't have done it, but I did it anyway because I couldn't help it. [28:11] Matt Levine: Do an IPO. Sell like one share of stock to the most ardent possible Elon Musk fan asset manager at a $2 trillion valuation... Sell $500 billion of stock to index funds at that $2 trillion valuation. They can't say no. [44:08] How are you spending your last 300 days of work? [49:12] Michael Saylor: Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin. [49:12] Michael Saylor: If you sold one Bitcoin to buy 10 more Bitcoin, technically you sold the Bitcoin, but economically you bought nine more Bitcoin. [61:52] Nicolas Cage: Batnick, Batnick, Batnick. That's the one. [65:06] Michael Batnick: What a time to be alive. What a time to be an investor.

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[0:45] Invesco Distributors, Inc. [0:49] Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael [0:50] and Ben. [music] [0:51] We have a [0:53] long show Well, we have a long doc. [0:55] >> [music] [0:56] >> Ben has something at 10:15, so we're [0:57] going to go an hour with Ken. I suppose [0:58] we're going to take all the time. We've [1:00] got 42 pages. There is [1:02] >> [music] [1:02] >> so much to discuss. I feel overwhelmed. [1:05] I am doing four podcasts this week, and [1:08] I still think I have more to say. [1:09] I mean, the amount of newsflow coming [1:11] out is incredible. [1:12] But, I want to take a moment to [1:15] acknowledge that I feel like I am having [1:18] a moment. Michael Batnick is having a [1:20] moment. Now, we [1:22] are having a moment. We share a lot of [1:24] overlap [1:25] in our good fortune. [1:27] But, [1:28] things are going pretty well for me [1:29] right now. [1:30] >> So, this is the You don't get the [1:31] reference, but this is the summer of [1:32] Michael, like the summer of George in [1:34] Seinfeld. [1:35] >> I don't get the reference. But, [1:37] that's part of it. Like, all of this [1:39] happening [1:40] with the sun coming out, it's been a [1:42] long crappy winter, as they always are. [1:45] Like, the fact that it's happening with [1:46] the while the sun is shining makes it [1:47] even more sweet, but [1:50] I say this not to brag, because bragging [1:52] is gross, nobody likes it, but more is [1:54] just a [1:56] an acknowledgement that [1:59] life is hard. [2:00] Life has its ups and downs. And you know [2:03] when you're when you're sick [2:05] and you're like gosh, I just I got to be [2:07] I just want to feel better. Please make [2:09] me feel better. And then you're healthy [2:11] and you completely forget about being [2:13] sick. So I'm just trying to acknowledge [2:16] um and take [2:19] >> about gratitude a couple weeks ago. [2:20] That's a it's a good thing to have to be [2:21] grateful when things are going well. [2:22] It's not bragging, it's being grateful. [2:24] >> So but it it is also weird to be [2:28] to have [2:29] clarity like this that this moment in [2:32] time, summer 2026 [2:34] might be the peak for me, which is a [2:35] weird thing to think about. I'll tell [2:37] you why. [2:37] >> mountain. [2:38] >> This my apex mountain. [2:39] All right, so so here's what's happening [2:41] in and around my life. [2:45] I have waited a long time for this. [2:47] Last week I wore a shirt from the from [2:49] the 1999 finals. [2:51] I was 14 years old. [2:53] My father started taking me to games [2:54] when I was seven. To be able to share [2:56] this moment with my boys is beyond [2:58] special. I cried twice this week [3:00] listening to podcasts. [3:01] Um once from Mike Breen talking about [3:04] how special this moment is. [3:06] Uh and once when Legler was talking [3:08] about how good Jaylen is. Like literal [3:10] and actual tears [3:12] falling down my face. [3:14] Um it is special. [3:15] >> were in you were in some sort of news [3:16] story showing you shouting about [3:19] [laughter] the Knicks. [3:20] >> So my friend texted me yesterday. I am [3:22] apparently the face of of people that [3:23] can't afford tickets. Um which is [3:26] obviously ironic, you know. But uh [3:28] but the the the tickets are out of [3:30] control expensive. So my plans, [3:32] depending on how the series goes, um if [3:36] it goes the distance, I will be at games [3:37] three through seven. I'm making the [3:38] trek. [3:40] So I think Knicks in five. I mean I [3:42] don't actually think that, but I do [3:43] think Knicks in six. So we'll see. Um [3:45] all right, so there's that. [3:47] Um the Giants [3:49] after a lost decade [3:51] are finally I think we bottomed. I don't [3:53] think it's going to get any worse for [3:54] us. [3:55] Uh [3:56] movies are having a serious moment in [3:59] time. [4:00] What happened with obsession and back [4:03] ones which we'll talk about later in the [4:04] show is remarkable. [4:06] >> It's not just movies, it's your kind of [4:08] movies. [4:08] >> It's it's my movies. The movies that I [4:11] have subscribed to [4:13] and I've had season tickets for a long [4:14] time. Right. [4:15] >> Yeah, your strange type of movies are [4:17] having a moment. [4:18] >> Um [4:19] we at Ritholtz things are [4:22] thank God going well for us in the [4:24] company and our employees and our [4:25] clients. Things are you know, things are [4:26] going well. We launched Porterhouse, the [4:29] momentum strategy that we've spoken [4:31] about and this is my [4:34] regular semi-regular reminder that we [4:36] need more advisors. [4:37] Um [4:39] we have a lot of people that are [4:40] interested [4:41] in our services [4:43] and we have a shortage of advisors to [4:44] serve all of them which is [4:46] insane. I started my career [4:50] and I'm using air quotes for people that [4:51] are not watching cold calling and [4:53] getting hung up on. [4:54] So the fact that there are now people [4:56] that are coming [4:58] knocking on our door is is something [5:01] that blows my mind every day. I don't I [5:03] >> I've been saying this for a while that [5:03] there's a bull market in the need for [5:05] financial advice for the next 20 years. [5:08] >> Yeah. [5:08] >> Huge bull market. We need that. [5:10] >> Um all right, what else is is [5:13] uh we launched an ETF. [5:15] Can't really say much more, but we did [5:17] that. [5:18] Uh and [5:20] uh family and friends, like everybody's [5:22] healthy [5:23] and uh life is hard. My uncle, when my [5:25] mom passed, my uncle said to me and this [5:27] is extremely corny, but it's also [5:29] extremely worth digesting. [5:32] Um he said, "Enjoy life. This is not a [5:34] dress rehearsal." [5:36] And it's true. [5:37] >> I like it. [5:37] >> We only We only have one chance on this [5:39] planet and life has its ups and downs, [5:41] so [5:42] if if things are not [5:43] >> you starting with positivity cuz I'm I'm [5:45] I I'm really sick of all the negativity [5:47] in the world. So I I'm I enjoy Glass [5:49] Apple's take on the world. [5:50] >> Well, listen, I know that life is hard [5:51] for a lot of people. [5:53] Um and if you're struggling and you're [5:54] you're vomiting me, [5:56] uh you know, [5:57] expressing gratitude, I'm sorry for you [5:59] and I hope things get better, but I just [6:00] wanted to take a moment and acknowledge [6:02] publicly that like I'm having a moment [6:03] and it feels it feels good. [6:05] >> This is the top. Right there, that was [6:07] it. [6:08] >> Okay. [6:08] >> We're going down from here. [6:09] >> Um all right, let's get into the market [6:11] because [ __ ] is happening. [6:13] >> Uh every day it feels like something is [6:15] going nuclear. Is this [6:17] is this the worst FOMO we've ever seen [6:19] in our lifetimes? [6:20] Uh post 9 post dot com is this this It [6:23] seems like every week it's something. [6:25] It's a country, it's an ETF, it's a [6:27] sector, it's a stock, right? It's Dell, [6:30] it's Intel, it's SanDisk, it's Western [6:32] Digital, it's [6:33] there's something [6:34] going just bananas all the time. You [6:37] look at the charts and it's [6:39] >> This morning Jensen [6:40] >> dot com like 1999 like returns in some [6:44] stocks for a year. Like four-digit [6:45] returns. It's insane. [6:47] >> Jensen Huang said this morning that [6:49] Marvell could be the next [6:50] trillion-dollar company and the stock is [6:52] up uh the stock is up 16% pre-market. Um [6:55] that's a big big statement. It but I I [6:58] think it's I think it's accurate. I [6:59] don't think cuz you could say 2020, [7:01] 2021, but that was [7:03] >> Yeah. [7:03] >> that was stupid. That was like GameStop [7:05] nonsense, right? This is [7:07] >> That was like internet fun times. This [7:08] is real. This is real. How are we going [7:10] to [7:11] >> And uh [7:13] it's it's hard it's hard to fight it. [7:18] >> Okay, on the market [7:19] >> if you if you are an investor and you [7:21] feel under exposed, you're not feeling [7:23] awesome right now. [7:25] >> No, I agree. So this is from the Wall [7:26] Street Journal, chip stocks power the [7:27] S&P 500 up 16% across April and May. A [7:30] two-month surge matched only four other [7:32] times since 1950. [7:34] The index was higher six months later [7:36] each time by median of 17%. So we're [7:38] talking about a handful of times that [7:40] this is the best two-month stretch since [7:42] 19, one of the best two months' [7:43] stretches ever since 1950. [7:45] That's pretty good. Uh this is [7:47] interesting. I've never seen this [7:49] before. Sam Roe, [7:50] uh so this is S&P via Sam Roe. [7:53] From an all I've never seen it presented [7:55] like this, and I told Chart Karm at I [7:56] said, "Hey, we got to recreate this." [7:57] From an all-time high, how often did the [7:59] S&P 500 make another all-time high [8:00] within the next day, week, month, and [8:02] year? 99% of the time, within the next [8:05] year, the S&P 500 made another all-time [8:07] high after making one. [8:09] That's pretty insane. [8:10] >> Yeah. [8:11] That's good stuff. All right, I am not [8:13] I'm not a I'm not a analog chart guy. [8:16] You compare two lines, right? Like I've [8:18] said this many times, lines can only go [8:20] in three directions, up, down, or [8:21] sideways. So, when you see two things [8:22] lining up, you know, one of my first [8:24] blog posts actually, I compared Altria [8:27] to like Altria from whenever I wrote the [8:29] blog post to the Dow Jones from a [8:31] different time period. [8:34] And I was like, "This is very easy. It's [8:36] very easy to find charts that line up." [8:38] But this one I do find um [8:41] uh interesting. [8:42] >> I remember how many 1929 charts there [8:44] have been over the years? [8:45] >> Yeah, well, that's all that's all yeah. [8:47] >> The worst. [8:48] >> Okay, so Bespoke tweeted [8:50] um [8:51] the Nasdaq at 875 trading days after the [8:55] release of Netscape on December 19th, [8:57] 1994 [8:59] and the Nasdaq at 875 day trading days [9:02] after release of ChatGPT, and it's [9:04] identical. [9:06] Um now, [9:08] whatever, you could see the rest of the [9:09] chart the like the the Nasdaq had only [9:12] begun to explode [9:13] after 875 trading days. So, if I guess [9:16] maybe one of the takeaways is this thing [9:18] can go a lot longer and a lot harder [9:19] than anybody thinks. Whatever, be that [9:21] it like that's neither here [9:22] >> It looks like we're in early 1998 right [9:24] now. [9:24] >> Exactly. I just think it's the the [9:26] parallels between the browser versus the [9:29] ChatGPT should not be lost on anyone. [9:32] It's obvious. [9:33] >> All right, this is from the Wall Street [9:34] Journal article. [9:35] George Vanderheiden, once a Fidelity [9:37] portfolio manager with one of Wall [9:38] Street's best performance record, [9:39] shunned tech stocks in the late 1990s in [9:41] a bet that the bubble would soon burst, [9:43] loading up on treasuries instead. [9:45] Performance slumped. He retired in [9:46] February 2000, scribbling a message in [9:49] his office whiteboard, "Tulip bulbs for [9:50] sale." [9:51] He said at the time, "You try to manage [9:53] the portfolio for risk, but the market [9:54] hasn't rewarded you for it. The market [9:56] has no fear." [9:58] Obviously, the market peaked like a [9:59] month later. [10:00] Um but that's how I would describe this [10:02] market. This is a market with no fear. [10:04] There's none. [10:06] I know people are trying to like make [10:08] up, "Oh, this is going to burst." And [10:10] the way the market is acting, [10:12] there is no fear. [10:14] Is that fair to say? [10:16] >> Um yes and no. [10:20] I think it is a fair statement that on [10:23] Tuesday, June 2nd, [10:25] there is no fear. [10:27] However, [10:29] um Warren Pies tweeted on May 31st, [10:34] "Despite many expecting a seasonal top, [10:37] retail traders are still jittery. [10:39] The 2% pullback in mid-May." Now, that [10:42] was that was May, okay? So, on June 2nd, [10:44] there's no fear. But [10:46] >> 2% we're talking about? [10:48] >> Let me finish. [10:49] >> Okay. [10:50] >> In mid-May, [10:51] the 2% pullback [10:53] forced big inflows into cash and money [10:56] market ETFs. [10:58] Warren's point was positive price [11:00] momentum and defensive flows is not [11:02] something you typically see at tops. But [11:04] remember there was a literally a 2% [11:07] whatever. I don't want to say pullback, [11:08] a 2% [11:10] well, pullback, I suppose. But there was [11:12] a there was a there was a rush into cash [11:14] and money market [11:15] >> It's like a market sneeze. [11:16] >> So, it's just let's just take take um [11:19] it's just [11:19] >> The fear The fear could happen fast when [11:21] it happens. [11:22] >> So, what am I I'm trying to There's a [11:23] phrase I'm looking for. Take stock. [11:25] That's the phrase. [11:26] Let's take stock of the fact that things [11:28] change so fast. [11:31] Think about how bearish people were on [11:33] the AI trade. [11:35] After Sam Altman said that [ __ ] on the [11:37] podcast in in the fall. [11:39] Think Think about how bearish people [11:41] were on the mag seven. [11:42] Rewind all the way back to the pullback [11:46] from the war. [11:47] Sentiment changes so fast. But Ben, [11:50] you're right. [11:52] On June 2nd at 9:15 in the morning, [11:54] there is no fear. [11:56] >> It feels like we're on this these train [11:57] tracks of AI and just we keep going. And [12:00] every once in a while the train gets [12:01] derailed for something. Liberation Day, [12:04] war, whatever fears are. And then we [12:07] just find our way back onto the tracks [12:09] and people are like, "Oh yeah, it's AI [12:10] powering this thing." That seems to be [12:12] where we've been for the last three or [12:13] four years. All right, Carl Quintanilla [12:14] from Goldman. [12:15] US IPO gross proceeds will total a [12:17] record 225 billion in 2026. Previous [12:20] forecast was 160 billion. [12:22] Uh [12:24] these numbers are just [12:25] like not even close to anything else [12:27] since the great financial crisis. It [12:29] dwarfs everything. I think what the [12:30] number was that [12:31] the three companies alone Did you have [12:33] this last week for us? [12:34] Anthropic, Open AI, and SpaceX will [12:37] together [12:38] have more proceeds for an IPO than any [12:40] of the 1990.com bubble stocks, all of [12:43] them. [12:44] >> I think it was it was 1990 and 2000 [12:46] combined. Now, Denise on T-Cup Denise [12:48] Trisol made a good point. We're going to [12:49] adjust for the size of the market cap. [12:51] >> Yeah, obviously market's way bigger [12:53] today. [12:53] >> But um [12:56] Yeah, we are we are in a moment. So, [12:57] last week Anthropic raised a 65 billion [13:00] dollar series H funding [13:02] at a 965 billion dollar post-money [13:04] valuation. [13:05] And then four days later they said, "Um [13:08] we're going to IPO too later this year." [13:10] We have We they filed their S-1 like [13:12] yesterday. I haven't [13:13] had time to go through it. [13:14] >> how the the headlines all say, [13:16] "Anthropic confidentially filed the [13:17] S-1." Like it's not confidential. [13:20] We're all talking about it. [13:22] >> I know we keep I know we keep saying [13:23] this, but [13:25] it is the fundamentals driving this. [13:28] Now, it's hard to say it's hard to like [13:29] know how much of the pie [13:31] is excess speculation and excess [13:34] euphoria. Obviously, that's a part of [13:35] it. Investors are rightfully excited. [13:38] But, last week Dell raised its outlook [13:41] for the year [13:42] after sales climbed 88%. [13:47] Um it now expects Dell is still [13:49] >> Dell is still a company. Like where [13:50] Gateway missed its moment here. Where's [13:51] Gateway computers? [13:53] >> It Not only is Dell a company, it's a [13:54] gigantic company. It now expects [13:56] full-year revenue to be 165 [13:59] to 169 billion, up from a prior range of [14:03] 138 to 140 billion. So, the stock gapped [14:05] up 38%. [14:07] Uh we just have to keep reminding [14:09] ourselves that this is being driven by [14:11] fundamentals. Here's Here's Here's a [14:12] quote that I want to share, Ben. [14:14] >> It's just To me, the the weirdest thing [14:15] about this is so many of these companies [14:16] have been around for a long time. [14:19] Intel, Dell, Micron, Western Digital. [14:21] Like all These are not new companies [14:23] that are springing up. These are [14:24] companies that have been around forever. [14:26] >> Correct. [14:27] >> In technology terms, at least. [14:29] >> I have Ben, I tweeted this quote in [14:32] 2017. [14:34] Um [14:36] from the pseudonymous Adam Smith. He [14:38] wasn't really pseudonymous, but he went [14:40] He He penned his books under Adam Smith. [14:42] He wrote The Money Game, [14:44] which in my opinion is the greatest [14:46] financial book ever written, at least [14:48] it's my favorite. [14:49] And he wrote a book called Supermoney. [14:51] And [14:54] to me, this perfectly describes [14:57] how we are all feeling [15:00] about the bull market. [15:02] We are all at a wonderful ball [15:05] where the champagne sparkles in every [15:06] glass, and soft laughter falls upon the [15:09] summer air. [15:10] We know by the rules that at some moment [15:13] the black horseman will come shattering [15:15] through the great terrace doors, [15:17] wreaking vengeance and scattering the [15:18] survivors. [15:20] Those who leave early are saved, [15:22] but the ball is so splendid, no one [15:24] wants to leave while there is still [15:26] time. So that everyone keeps asking, [15:29] "What time is it? What time is it?" But [15:33] none of the clocks have any hands. [15:36] Is that chef's kiss or what? And I [15:38] tweeted that in 2017 because at that [15:41] time there were so many [15:44] There were so many people [15:48] wondering, "When is this great ride [15:51] going to end? When is this splendid ball [15:54] one of the lights going to go off?" [15:56] >> I think you just have to have an open [15:57] mind about this. And that's where I am [15:59] is that I know all the historical [16:00] parallels. I do get worried that, "Oh my [16:03] gosh, this is the excesses we've been [16:05] waiting for that that could tip us over [16:07] and like honestly lead to a recession if [16:09] the excesses get too big and there has [16:10] to be a pullback." So that part does [16:12] worry me. But I think you just have If [16:14] you don't have an open mind about what [16:16] technology has done to the markets into [16:19] our lives in the past 15 years, then [16:20] you're haven't been paying attention. [16:22] >> I I think that's the right posture. The [16:23] right posture is um [16:26] obviously not oblivious to the risks. [16:28] How could you be at this point? [16:31] But an open mind that this could go on [16:35] for a lot longer than you think and that [16:37] some of the run-ups are justified. And [16:40] have the bulls not earned the benefit of [16:42] the doubt? [16:43] I mean honestly [16:45] >> I got the bearish take later in the [16:47] doubt. Let's talk about the bulls more. [16:48] Micron. [16:49] This company went nuts. So this is all [16:52] the all the one trillion dollar So you [16:54] made this chart it looks like. How many [16:55] charts How many stocks is it now? 10 11? [16:57] >> This This is the 11th. [17:00] >> So that which is crazy. So every stock [17:02] in the top 10 of the S&P 500 now has a [17:04] trillion dollar market cap or more. [17:06] Just nuts. Uh this couple [17:08] >> Ben Ben, think about what's what's not a [17:11] trillion dollar company. Below Micron. [17:14] Uh you know what I don't see on this [17:16] chart? I don't see JP Morgan. [17:18] I don't see Walmart. [17:20] No Netflix. [17:22] Well, forget about Netflix. [17:23] >> No, I don't know. I'm just thinking of [17:24] household names. [17:25] >> But Walmart and and JP Morgan [17:27] are are smaller than Micron? Okay. [17:31] I guess. [17:32] >> of cool to see Eli Lilly on here, too. [17:33] So, Bloomberg has some charts here. [17:35] Trading days between 500 billion and 1 [17:37] trillion dollar market cap. Micron is [17:39] the fastest in history. And guess what? [17:40] The next two are also [17:42] happening now, Samsung and SK Hynix. [17:45] Which is which and like [17:47] Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway took a [17:48] lot longer, okay? [17:49] >> think look at Alphabet. That wasn't like [17:51] that long ago. [17:52] It took It took Alphabet over a thousand [17:55] trading days. [17:56] >> So, Bloomberg also [17:58] >> Bloomberg has Micron's earnings are [18:00] expected to explode higher. This chart [18:02] doesn't look real. So, it shows their [18:03] trailing 12-month earning per share [18:05] going back to 2017, and then the average [18:07] analyst estimates for the next three [18:09] quarters. [18:10] And it's [18:12] a tenfold increase, [18:14] fivefold increase, it's it's it looks [18:16] like a totally different chart. [18:19] To your point about like the [18:19] fundamentals. [18:21] The crazy thing to me is just that [18:24] this it wasn't like [18:25] two years even a year ago people were [18:27] saying this is going to happen. [18:29] These memory that semiconductors are [18:31] going to take off like this. This wasn't [18:32] something people were foreseeing in this [18:34] whole thing. [18:36] Right? This is a This is a new thing [18:38] that no one was like pounding the table [18:39] saying, "These are the stocks." [18:42] It had This To your point about it [18:43] happening fast, this happened so fast. [18:46] And the re-rating and the earnings [18:47] re-ratings and the stock ratings of [18:49] these, it's just [18:50] it's nuts. [18:51] >> I want to give a a shout to Roundhill [18:54] for [18:56] the greatest ETF launch of all time. [19:00] The greatest ETF launch of all time. So, [19:02] they launched DRAM [19:04] in early April. [19:08] The ETF is up 127%. [19:12] >> Oh, I've had this later than the day. I [19:13] sent an email today. So, listen to this. [19:15] This is from Roundhill. [19:17] The Roundhill Memory ETF, ticker DRAM, [19:19] surpassed $10 billion in assets under [19:21] management in only 35 days, faster than [19:23] any ETF in history. [19:26] >> Wow. [19:26] >> Holy crap. $10 billion in days. So, this [19:29] is all those stocks that we just talked [19:31] about. Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix. Isn't [19:33] It's only like six stocks essentially? [19:35] >> Oh, I don't know about that. I've no [19:36] idea. I don't know what the holdings [19:37] are. [19:37] >> That make up the the majority of it. [19:39] >> I would Okay, I would assume it's a [19:40] bigger basket than that. But, there's [19:41] $14 billion in assets as of yesterday. [19:43] This is credit to them. [19:46] Um these guys are good, but better to be [19:48] lucky than good. Uh unbelievable. Love [19:50] to see it. Good for them. [19:52] >> Okay, right. So, sorry. Yeah, yeah, the [19:54] the top [19:55] stuff, but man. [19:58] What a So, [20:00] >> we we shared a chart on on TCAF, the [20:03] distance [20:05] between SMH and its 200-day moving [20:07] average. And there's nothing in history [20:09] like this. At least Well, I'm sorry. It [20:11] goes back to 2001. So, maybe maybe it [20:13] was crazier in '99. But, [20:15] for goodness sake, like [20:17] if if you are putting [20:19] um new money in here, I'm I'm [20:21] just have some sort of an exit plan. [20:24] Like, you got to you got to fight you [20:25] got to fight the fear. Fight the fight [20:27] the FOMO. [20:28] >> Well, this is the kind of thing we you [20:29] said like [20:31] people have such big profits here that [20:32] there's going to be a time when these [20:34] stocks something happens and people [20:37] Okay, my gosh, I need to I need to lock [20:38] these profits in now. And there's going [20:40] to be a huge cascade of selling. Even if [20:41] it's like a one-day or one-week thing. [20:43] >> I keep saying this. [20:44] When Micron reported its blowout numbers [20:47] last quarter, blowout numbers, [20:50] the stock fell 30% in about 2 weeks, 3 [20:52] weeks. And that was guys, that was like [20:54] in March. [20:55] So, I'm not I'm I'm I'm I don't want to [20:57] be that guy. It's super lame. But, just [20:59] be careful. [21:00] >> Yes, there's going to be those stats [21:01] that say, "Oh my gosh, these stocks down [21:03] 30% but still up 400% for the year or [21:05] whatever." [21:05] >> And by the way, we we we own a lot of [21:07] these names in in Porter House. [21:09] Like we own a lot of these names. Um [21:11] and if and when they break our whatever [21:12] our rules are, they'll they'll get sold. [21:15] >> Yes, that's the point of momentum [21:15] strategy. [21:17] Uh the AI trade is global. This is one [21:18] of the things that I've kind of been [21:20] talking about for a while, wondering or [21:21] predicting, whatever you want to say. [21:23] So, Michael Cembalest looked at um a [21:25] basket of Chinese AI stocks and a basket [21:27] of US AI stocks. [21:29] And this is going back to the start of [21:30] 2024. And they're essentially following [21:32] each other beat for beat. Chinese stocks [21:34] are actually outperforming a little bit. [21:36] Going back to the same thing, the [21:38] emerging markets ETF versus the Nasdaq [21:40] 100 has kind of tracked it pretty [21:42] similarly and are up about the same [21:45] as each other since the start of 2024. [21:47] So, this is the kind of thing where this [21:49] this is not just on our shores anymore. [21:50] This is a global phenomenon. And I [21:52] actually I've been thinking [21:54] that AI the internet really didn't level [21:57] the playing field as much as people [21:58] thought, I think, in terms of like US [22:00] domination of the world. [22:01] I think AI might be the thing that does [22:03] it. [22:05] That sort of brings the rest of the [22:06] world up to us. [22:08] I think it's possible. [22:10] All right. I want to give the AI bear [22:11] case now and talk about my favorite new [22:13] macro podcast. [22:14] Uh so, TIS Lombarg has a podcast. Dario [22:19] Perkins is a guy I follow on Twitter. [22:20] They have three macro people, they're [22:21] all British. And they make macro calls [22:25] and then if they get it wrong, they all [22:26] rip on each other on the next podcast. I [22:28] love that they call. So, that So, I [22:29] really I really enjoy it. So, they said, [22:32] "Let us lay out the bear case here cuz [22:33] everyone has the bull case." [22:36] So, Dario Perkins says, "I did the [22:37] numbers. [22:38] 80% of the revenue right now is [22:40] circular, meaning it's going from Google [22:43] to Oracle to like it's it's the capex [22:46] from one company going to these other [22:47] companies. So, a lot of it is he's he's [22:49] saying it hasn't quite broken out yet to [22:52] the wider world of businesses yet. A lot [22:54] of it is still circular. So, all this [22:56] capex we're seeing is them shuffling the [22:58] chairs around, so to speak." [23:00] And he's saying if if we don't see the [23:02] leap, [23:03] then that's that's a worry if it's just [23:05] these companies spending with each [23:06] other. And it's interesting, Ben [23:07] Thompson on his podcast last week said [23:09] that Nvidia is now starting to break out [23:11] their quarterly numbers by hyperscalers [23:13] versus non-hyperscalers cuz I'm sure [23:15] they're getting crap about this. Like, [23:16] "Hey, is this just a big circle jerk? [23:18] Are we What are we doing here?" So, [23:21] um [23:22] anyway, [23:23] it's worth a listen. [23:25] So, it's called Global Data is the name [23:26] of the podcast. I think it's worth a [23:28] listen for the bearish take [23:30] because I think we've are now in the [23:32] camp that I feel like the bearish takes [23:34] before an AI were kind of getting the [23:36] most oxygen. [23:37] And now I feel like the only thing you [23:38] hear is bullish. So, again, trying to [23:40] keep an open mind. I want to I want to [23:42] think about both of these things still. [23:45] And like what I should be looking for [23:46] for like mile markers and goal posts to [23:47] be like, "All right, fine. That bearish [23:49] trope, that one was knocked down." [23:52] Right? Anyway, so [23:53] you know what I found really helpful [23:56] for me early in my journey [23:58] as a as a as a young investor, [24:02] I used to write down everything. [24:05] When I bought or sold something, I would [24:07] write down what I was doing. And Ben and [24:08] I have joked about this in the past. In [24:10] 2011, I think I shorted Amazon. And [24:14] um [24:15] I would [24:16] I would like frequently reread what I [24:18] wrote like with the passage of time. And [24:19] I don't mean like years later. I mean [24:20] like like 3 months later I would look [24:21] back. And believe me, it didn't take [24:23] very long before I discovered that I was [24:26] not, in fact, the next Stanley [24:27] Druckenmiller. [24:29] And if you do that, especially in a time [24:32] like right now because whatever happens, [24:36] you will it will have appeared obvious [24:38] in hindsight for the most part. And I [24:39] would say, "Listen, [24:41] if if if the bull market goes another [24:43] year, if we're up 30%, I don't I'm I [24:45] don't think anybody's going to be like [24:46] Not everybody. I don't think a lot of [24:48] the narratives are like, "Well, of [24:49] course we're up another 30% blah blah [24:50] blah blah blah blah." Right? Like, there [24:51] will there will be more disbelief, in my [24:53] opinion. But if we're down 30%, [24:55] everybody will have seen it coming. [24:57] Everybody will have said it was so [24:59] obvious. Oh, yeah? Okay. If you think [25:01] it's so obvious that we're in a bubble, [25:05] then sell. [25:06] Or short, or whatever. [25:09] But write down. Write down. It's really [25:11] It's a really helpful exercise. Write [25:13] down how you're thinking [25:14] before you buy or sell something. And do [25:16] that for a couple of months, and see if [25:17] it doesn't sober you up about your own [25:18] ability to predict the future. [25:21] >> Yes, I agree. That That That's one of [25:22] the reasons that I like having a blog [25:24] because it keeps me honest with that [25:26] stuff. And it's one of the reasons that [25:27] we have policy statements for for our [25:29] clients. [25:30] Writing stuff down, reminding you of [25:31] your goals and why you're investing. [25:34] Duality Research had a good one showing [25:36] that this is really a tale of two [25:37] bubbles, or not bubbles, two bull [25:39] markets. Sorry, I got bubbles on the [25:41] brain here. Also, the other thing is [25:43] no one can time a bubble. No one can do [25:45] it. It is impossible. [25:47] Isaac Newton was probably the smartest [25:48] person to ever walk the earth. One maybe [25:50] one of the top three. [25:52] And he got caught up in a bubble in the [25:54] South Sea. [25:55] One of my favorite stories. It It It's [25:57] impossible. No one can time it. [25:59] >> One of my favorite stories about [26:00] humility in the in the stock market is [26:03] Stanley Druckenmiller, [26:05] who I think everybody has on their like [26:08] Mount Rushmore of Mount Whatever your [26:10] style is, he's on the Mount Rushmore if [26:12] not the goat. Okay. [26:13] Druckenmiller [26:15] was in the business for almost 20 years [26:19] prior to the top in 2000. He had been [26:22] killing it. He already was a legend for [26:24] shorting the pound. Like he was [26:27] a guy. [26:28] And he fought the bubble. [26:31] He fought. He fought. He fought. He was [26:33] under invested. [26:34] Um he hired a couple of young kids [26:36] because he was like, all right, clearly [26:37] I'm out of sync with the market. I need [26:39] some young blood. Maybe they have a [26:40] better idea of what's going on than I [26:41] did because well, whatever. We don't [26:42] need to get into his backstory. But um [26:44] and he went all in [26:47] in his words within an hours of the [26:48] actual top into tech stocks. He lost $3 [26:51] billion in 24 hours, something like [26:53] that. [26:54] And I see reflected on what he learned, [26:57] his answer was, "Nothing. [26:58] I knew I shouldn't have done it, but I [27:00] did it anyway cuz I couldn't help it." [27:01] >> it. [27:03] That was your book, right? [27:04] >> That was my book. Um all right, so [27:07] what so what back to back to this chart? [27:08] What are we looking at here? [27:09] >> All right, so I you talk about analogs [27:12] between the '80s and '90s and today. I [27:13] think this is another one that it was [27:14] that period, however you want to start [27:16] whenever you want to start it, '82 to [27:17] '99, [27:19] '80 to 2000, whatever it is. It was [27:20] really two different bull markets that [27:22] were just kind of mashed into one over [27:24] time. And so [27:26] Deloitte Research looked at in the 2000 [27:28] so 2013 to 2020, new highs in the S&P [27:30] 500 came at low VIX prints, right? It [27:32] was like the stair step up. But now in [27:35] the 2020s, [27:37] uh since the pandemic, new highs have [27:39] come with higher VIX prints. So there's [27:41] more volatility when it happens. And [27:43] this is showing that since the pandemic, [27:44] this is a totally different market. [27:46] The bull market is acting differently. [27:48] So here's how the market is still [27:50] grinding higher but without the same [27:51] complacency we saw in the 2010s. In [27:52] other words, [27:54] investors are still paying up for [27:55] protection even during rallies, pointing [27:57] to a more hedged, more cautious [27:59] backdrop, which is interesting. You [28:00] talked about like [28:02] >> Yes, so that's why I pushed back a [28:03] little bit because you're right, there's [28:04] no fear today. [28:06] But fear comes back so fast. [28:09] It comes back so fast. [28:12] Um all right, so we let's we'll do a [28:15] little bit about SpaceX here. I'm doing [28:17] a full episode because it deserves a [28:19] full episode tomorrow on Talking Wealth [28:22] with Aaron Dillon about [28:24] what advisors need to know about SpaceX [28:26] because clients are asking a lot. This [28:28] is the hottest [28:28] >> a ton of questions. [28:29] >> This is the hottest IPO of our [28:30] lifetimes. What does it mean for index [28:31] inclusion? What does it mean for buying? [28:33] So we'll get into that a little bit [28:34] today. Um [28:36] my dad texted me yesterday, [28:38] "Should I buy the SpaceX IPO?" My dad [28:41] never [28:42] ever asks me about individual stocks, [28:45] ever. [28:46] So this is on the brain. [28:48] >> What did you tell him? [28:52] >> What did I tell Dad? [28:54] I said, "Uh no." [28:56] He said, "Okay." [28:58] I said, "The price might go up in the [29:00] first few sessions, who knows, but it's [29:01] a cluster [29:02] All right, so let me elaborate. [29:04] >> I can't I know you're going to get into [29:05] this on Talking Wealth. I can't force [29:07] myself to get up in arms about SpaceX [29:09] being and Anthropic eventually being [29:11] included in index funds. I can't make [29:13] myself get mad about it. [29:14] >> Okay, so [29:15] >> I know a lot of people want to be mad [29:16] about it. I I can't force myself to get [29:18] mad about it. [29:19] >> no one to blame. [29:19] >> There is. [29:20] >> Yes. These companies should be in a [29:24] cap-weighted index. If they are [29:27] like a top 15 top 10 stock in a [29:30] cap-weighted index, how could they not [29:31] be included? It would be bizarre. [29:34] >> Exactly. That's my feeling. [29:35] >> are upset because the Nasdaq is changing [29:37] and the index providers are changing the [29:38] rules. Guess what? [29:40] These rules were not handed down on a [29:42] tablet by Moses. What do you mean? We're [29:44] allowed to change the rules. The market [29:46] looks so much different today than it [29:47] did back then. The rules are allowed to [29:49] change. Okay. [29:51] The question is [29:53] um [29:55] or the rule change or the rule change is [29:57] protecting investors. [29:59] And everybody has their opinion. [30:01] I think to include [30:03] an IPO of this size in the index after [30:06] 15 days [30:08] is [30:09] kind of nuts. [30:11] There is all sort of chicanery that can [30:13] be played. I don't think there's enough [30:15] time for price discovery. I believe that [30:17] they should be included in the index, [30:18] but 15 days 15 days or or even five [30:21] seems nuts. Now, the part that I think [30:25] the part that people have are upset with [30:26] is [30:27] exit liquidity. Um they are they are [30:30] coming out with a very short short float [30:32] so that the index has to buy all of it [30:34] and it's manipulating and it's [30:36] So, that part I sort of understand, but [30:38] but the the nuances of it matter. So, [30:40] here's Matt Levine. [30:43] So, the schematic maximally cynical [30:46] approach for SpaceX would be something [30:47] like this. [30:49] Do an IPO. [30:51] Sell like one share of stock to the most [30:53] ardent possible Elon Musk fan asset [30:55] manager at a $2 trillion valuation. [30:58] Sell perhaps tens of billions of dollars [31:00] of stock to ardent Elon Musk fan retail [31:02] investors. [31:04] Whoever's willing to buy at that $2 [31:06] trillion valuation. [31:07] Lock up all the rest of the stocks so [31:09] that no one can sell. [31:11] Get in all the indexes because you are [31:13] huge. [31:14] Something like 24% of the stock of the [31:16] average member of the S&P 500 index is [31:18] held by index funds. [31:20] At a $2 trillion valuation, that's like [31:22] $500 billion of stock. [31:25] Sell $500 billion of stock to index [31:26] funds at that $2 trillion valuation. [31:28] They can't say no. [31:30] That is the maximally cynical approach [31:33] is to sell as little stock as possible [31:35] to price sensitive investors [31:38] in order to keep the supply low and the [31:39] price high. [31:40] And then sell as much stock as possible [31:42] to index funds who can't negotiate on [31:45] price. Actually, can't negotiate on [31:47] price understates the issue. If index [31:49] funds need to buy 24% of your stock and [31:51] only 20% of your stock is available to [31:52] buy, [31:53] then the index funds are forced to chase [31:55] it, driving up the stock to whatever [31:56] price you like. You have effectively [31:58] created a short squeeze for the index [32:00] funds. [32:02] They have to buy stock at any price and [32:04] there isn't enough stock for them to [32:05] buy. Just keep bidding, you tell [32:08] Vanguard. Okay, so that's Matt Levine. [32:10] But the reality is um a little bit more [32:14] nuanced. Here's Lu Wang and her [32:15] colleagues also at Bloomberg. They say, [32:17] "Fast track timelines vary by index. [32:21] But if S&P follows its competitors, [32:23] the resulting passive demand for SpaceX [32:26] uh from funds tracking indexes would be [32:28] nearly $20 billion. [32:30] According to Bloomberg Intelligence [32:31] analyst James Seyffart and Rob Du Rob [32:33] Rob Duboff's estimates. With a $75 [32:36] billion raise, [32:38] all right, so they raise a $75 billion, [32:40] that would be roughly a quarter of [32:42] SpaceX's offerings. So, to be clear, [32:46] SpaceX will not be in the index at a [32:49] $1.8 trillion valuation. [32:51] We had a We had a bunch of listeners [32:53] email us, [32:54] like, "Hey, is this [32:56] Is this total horse [ __ ] Like, should I [32:58] sell my index funds?" [33:01] Um [33:01] so, here's where it is going to fall [33:04] inside of the index. This is This cat [33:06] So, the Cali um [33:09] Cali Cox calculated this for us based [33:11] on, you know, putting a few pieces [33:13] together of the new float-adjusted [33:15] rules. The float is what's actually [33:17] being available, okay? [33:18] Um she Cali said it's going to be right [33:21] around Amgen and Gilead and Shopify and [33:24] Honeywell. So, So, if you look at this [33:26] graphic that Chartr created, it's going [33:28] to be like the 195th [33:30] company in the S&P. [33:31] >> All right, so it's not automatically [33:32] going to be a 3% position right away or [33:34] something. But, that's assuming that [33:35] they waive the profitability [33:36] requirements, which they're probably [33:37] going to. Sounds like they're going to. [33:40] And we don't know when it's going to get [33:41] included. I think the bigger idea is [33:44] what do future unlocks look like and how [33:46] much supply is ultimately going to be [33:48] dumped on index funds and what does that [33:50] do to the price? And we will cover all [33:51] of that if you want more on Talking [33:53] Wealth. [33:53] >> But, I'm sure this is going to cause the [33:54] index providers to change more rules in [33:56] the future if they try to manipulate [33:57] them. [33:58] >> All right, so half-baked idea that will [34:00] never happen. [34:03] What if there's a new rule for private [34:05] companies [34:06] where [34:08] um [34:10] once you cross a certain threshold [34:13] in market cap, you can't be private [34:15] anymore? [34:17] You can't You can't come public at a [34:19] trillion-dollar valuation. What if [34:21] there's a limit? Like, if you want to be [34:22] a publicly traded company, [34:25] there's just a limit. You can't come [34:26] public at a $4 trillion [34:29] market cap and only release 4% of the [34:32] float to investors, pushing stocks [34:34] higher, push it like I don't know. It's [34:37] probably not going to happen. I'm I'm [34:38] sure that's, you know, probably not a [34:39] great idea for various reasons. [34:41] Uh it's an interesting experiment. We're [34:43] we'll see what's what's going to happen. [34:44] And that brings us to one of the big [34:46] questions is um how much supply can the [34:48] market handle? [34:50] Because the money's got to come from [34:52] somewhere. And if [34:54] OpenAI is coming public and SpaceX is [34:57] coming public and Anthropic is coming [34:58] public and they're raising 200 billion. [35:00] What was the number that Goldman Was it [35:02] 250? [35:04] >> Yeah. [35:04] >> 250 billion dollars in new shares coming [35:08] to market, you have to sell something. [35:09] And how does What does that do? Okay, [35:11] well, funny you should ask. Because [35:14] Google [35:16] apparently [35:17] uh needs to raise money or they are [35:19] choosing to raise money. [35:21] So Google is doing an 80 billion dollar [35:24] equity offering. [35:25] It is the first time since 2005. [35:29] >> Hey, this this is a narrative buster to [35:31] me. This whole story is so bizarre to [35:33] me. [35:34] >> In what sense? [35:36] >> The fact that um people have been [35:39] talking about Buffett sitting on a cash [35:40] pile and the timing of Berkshire [35:42] Hathaway getting into this is bizarre to [35:44] me. [35:44] >> So they they bought Google last year. [35:47] Um they're buying more. They're buying [35:48] 10 billion dollars, which is I mean, [35:50] what's their cash pile? Is it 300 [35:52] billion dollars? It's [35:53] Um they're only So it was done by a via [35:55] private placement at only like a 4% [35:57] discount to current prices. [35:58] Which And the whole story's fascinating. [36:00] It's very interesting. [36:01] >> Yeah, just the [36:02] the a company as big as Google and [36:03] mature as Google [36:04] raising equity is so we I I looked it [36:07] up. It this I'm like, when has this ever [36:09] happened before? It's This is basically [36:11] a [36:11] one one of one that this has happened. [36:14] A company that produces this much Yeah, [36:16] this size, this mature. I mean, Tesla [36:19] did a bunch of equity raises, I guess. [36:21] Like I was I was scouring all the LLMs. [36:23] Like, when has this happened before? [36:24] They're like, never. This is new. [36:26] >> So here's here's [36:27] >> like this has never happened before. [36:28] >> Here's their press release. [36:30] During its Q1 2026 earnings call, [36:34] Alphabet announced [36:36] that its 2026 CapEx are expected to be [36:39] 180 to 190 billion dollars. [36:42] And that it expects 2027 CapEx [36:45] to significantly increase compared to [36:48] 2026. [36:49] The equity offering is part of [36:50] Alphabet's plan to fund its investments [36:52] in a balanced way while retaining a [36:54] healthy balance sheet. [36:57] Uh their other sources of funding [36:58] include strong operating cash flow. Over [37:00] the last 12 months, they generated 174 [37:02] billion dollars of cash flow. And debt [37:04] issuances over the last year, they [37:06] raised 85 billion dollars of debt. So, [37:08] people are rightfully saying like, "Hey, [37:09] wait a minute. What in the world is [37:11] going on? 175 billion dollars of [37:13] operating cash flow, [37:14] issued 85 billion dollars worth of debt [37:16] just over the last 12 months, and you [37:17] still need more money." To me, the [37:19] clearest the the the my reading from [37:22] this is I should buy more Nvidia. I own [37:23] Nvidia. I should buy more. [37:25] >> That one of the narratives I was [37:27] thinking about this is obviously this [37:28] means there's so much demand. [37:30] Yeah, so they need that they needed [37:32] money this bad that they had to raise [37:33] equity, which is [37:34] to your point, crazy with how much CapEx [37:36] they already produce. The other one is [37:38] these are way more capital-intensive [37:40] businesses now. [37:41] And if they can't fund everything with [37:43] cash cash flows, like that that [37:45] potentially changes the business model. [37:48] And those are the two things that I came [37:49] away with here. [37:50] >> So, I forget the exact details. They did [37:52] 10 billion dollars in a private [37:53] placement with with a Berkshire. [37:55] They're doing a 40 million dollar at the [37:57] market equity offering sometime in the [37:59] third quarter. [38:01] Um and there were some preferreds in [38:02] there. Now, this is like nuance that [38:03] really who cares. Part of this is to pay [38:05] the tax bill. So, they issue a lot of [38:07] stock to their employees that is treated [38:10] like cash comp. They have to pay income [38:12] tax for that. So, they're doing that. I [38:14] saw somebody make a good point like, [38:15] "Well, cash is fungible. They could they [38:16] don't they they could just use it for [38:18] operating, right?" But but they did say [38:19] that's part of the use for this. So, the [38:21] stock is doing what in the premarket? [38:23] This morning it was down 2 and 1/2%. The [38:25] stock is down [38:27] The stock Oh, the market is open. The [38:28] stock is down 4 and 1/2%. So, to me, [38:30] this is going to be very interesting how [38:32] the market digests [38:34] >> So, there goes There goes the uh [38:35] discount right away, huh? [38:36] >> So, [38:37] >> You said they bought it at a 4% [38:38] discount? [38:39] >> So, Google's at 355. Um [38:42] So, we'll see how the market digests [38:43] over the next couple of days and [38:44] sessions, but it will be interesting to [38:46] think about this in conjunction with [38:49] all of the new supply that's coming to [38:50] the market. [38:52] >> I feel like we just need to start [38:53] putting a file together for the thing [38:55] that signaled the top, right? Cuz one of [38:56] these things has to be it. [38:59] Remember when Google raised money? That [39:00] was it. That was [39:01] >> Yeah. [39:02] >> Not Not that easy. [39:04] All right, let's talk about South Korea [39:04] real quick. [39:05] Uh so, someone from South Korea sent me [39:09] a picture of my book at a at a bookstore [39:10] there, which is kind of cool. People [39:11] send me uh pictures from India and South [39:14] Korea and New York of like seeing the [39:15] book out in the wild, which is kind of [39:16] cool. [39:17] And so, I wrote back to the guy and I [39:18] said, "Hey, how crazy is our things in [39:21] South Korea as far as investors go?" And [39:22] he had He said, "It's crazier than you [39:24] think. It's the speculation is nuts." [39:26] So, I got a few charts here. [39:28] >> Wait, hold on hold on. On this On this [39:29] speculation thing, like [39:31] are you hearing from friends? [39:35] >> No, I'm really not. [39:37] You're right. It It That That part of it [39:39] seemed like I was hearing from more [39:40] people in the 2021 meme stock thing than [39:42] I am with this. [39:45] So, I I guess is it possible that this [39:47] is obviously retail is involved, but is [39:49] it possible that so much of this is [39:50] really just professional investors [39:53] in these and not not individuals? I [39:55] don't know. [39:56] So, over the past 10 years, [39:58] the South Korea ETF, EWY, is now [40:00] outperforming the S&P 500. All of that [40:02] outperformance in the for the past 10 [40:04] years has come in the past year [40:06] cuz it was wildly underperforming [40:08] through 2024. Uh this is from Bloomberg. [40:11] We talked about how South Korea passed [40:12] the UK before, passed Canada. Now, South [40:14] Korea has a bigger market cap than [40:17] India. [40:18] Which has actually kind of stagnated a [40:20] little bit. [40:21] Um South Korea is just going up. Eric [40:22] Balchunas, the two times SK Hynix ETF in [40:25] Hong Kong has grown AUM 10 times this [40:28] year. It is now the third biggest ETF in [40:30] that market accounting for 8.5% of all [40:32] assets. [40:33] >> Unbelievable. [40:34] >> ETF, a single ETF is almost 10%. He says [40:37] that's insane. It'd be like an ETF in [40:38] the US having 1.3 trillion dollars, [40:40] which doesn't exist. [40:41] >> Makes also trade over [40:42] >> It trades over a billion dollars a day. [40:45] Which is the US equivalent of 150 [40:46] billion, which has never happened [40:48] before. Holy crap. And now everyone, of [40:51] course, that says, "It's two stacks, [40:53] idiots." Yes, we know that. [40:55] >> duh. By the way, just just getting back [40:56] to my point, the comment we made a [40:58] second ago about retail investors, I [41:00] think retail investors that are trading [41:01] all the way are all the way in. Like, if [41:03] you've been involved in the stock [41:03] market, you are all the way in. I guess [41:05] my question was like, is it is it [41:07] pulling in new people into the market [41:09] the way that 2021 did? I don't think so. [41:12] >> That's true. I think we pulled forward a [41:14] lot of demand. [41:15] >> This is this is an interesting dynamic. [41:17] Kevin Gordon tweeted, "Quite the gap. [41:19] The S&P 500 continues to look stretched [41:21] relative to its 200-day moving average, [41:23] like how far stretched we are above. [41:25] Yet, the percentage of members of [41:27] trading above their 200-day moving [41:28] average continues to struggle to move [41:29] higher. Um [41:31] whatever, not really surprising dynamic. [41:32] We know what's going on." [41:33] >> to worrying about concentration again? [41:34] >> Yeah, it's a lot of the [41:36] lot of the mega caps doing the heavy [41:38] lifting. And yeah, people are all in on [41:39] tech. Cumulative flows into tech uh [41:42] year-to-date, or actually since the [41:44] March low, my bad, is This is from Todd [41:47] Sohn. It's like 30 billion, and the [41:49] cumulative flows ex-tech is negative 4 [41:50] billion. Did you listen Did you listen [41:52] to Dan Loeb on Patrick's podcast? [41:54] >> I didn't listen yet. [41:55] >> He was basically like, "Yeah, this this [41:57] is by far our biggest exposure is tech. [42:00] And uh you know, I mean, makes sense. [42:03] This is This is where the market is." [42:05] >> If you want to If you want to get out of [42:07] ex-tech now, you're you're getting rid [42:08] of like half the market. [42:10] It's an It's an enormous bet. [42:13] Uh [42:14] We haven't spoken about money market [42:15] funds in a while. On the other side of [42:17] the spectrum, [42:19] there's now 8.28 trillion dollars in [42:21] money market funds. [42:24] I don't necessarily want to say that [42:26] this is going to like In fact, you know [42:28] what? I was 100% right here. [42:29] I was 100% [42:30] >> You called this. I'll give you credit. [42:31] >> Yeah, I was 100% right. [42:32] >> money's not leaving. [42:33] >> This money's not leaving cuz it's just [42:35] Yeah, go ahead. [42:36] >> It helps that people thought the Fed was [42:37] going to be keeping lowering rates and [42:39] that would do it but the rates have [42:40] stayed [42:41] pretty steady and we're still getting [42:43] what? 3 and 1/2, 4% for money markets. [42:45] It's not bad. [42:45] >> So, I don't think this impacts the stock [42:47] market at all. There's probably personal [42:49] finance ramifications here but [42:53] >> Uh yeah, you Credit to you. You called [42:55] this one. [42:56] Uh okay. Heather Long, let's look at the [42:59] other side of things. This is stunning, [43:00] she says. Personal savings rate in April [43:02] 2025 was 5.5%. Personal savings rate [43:04] April 2026 is 2.6%. That's a sharp [43:07] plunge. It underscores how squeezed [43:08] Americans are right now with higher [43:10] prices and incomes not keeping up. [43:12] Maybe you can explain away but some of [43:13] it by baby boomers retiring but not all [43:14] of it. Now, a lot of people saw these [43:16] numbers and said, "Oh my gosh. [43:18] How is the an economy like this with a [43:20] booming stock market and all this stuff [43:22] and people can't afford to save money?" [43:24] This is That's the intuitive re- way you [43:26] read that. [43:27] The counterintuitive way you read this [43:29] and how it actually works in reality is [43:31] No, no, no, no, no. [43:33] The wealth is so much higher. People [43:34] think they don't need to save as much. [43:36] And this happens all the time. This [43:37] happened in the '90s. This happens in [43:38] every boom. The savings rate decreases [43:41] when asset prices boom [43:43] because people's wealth is up and they [43:44] don't need to save as much anymore. [43:49] >> Nailed it. I mean, [43:50] >> Right? [43:51] >> my savings rate is way down probably [43:52] because exactly what you just described. [43:55] >> Right. Mike Zaccardi posted a chart from [43:57] Bank of America that shows just that. [43:59] The savings rate tends to be negatively [44:01] correlated to household wealth. [44:03] When wealth goes up, you And now you [44:04] think [44:05] >> it is. Of course it is. You're afraid to [44:07] spend in bad times. Duh. [44:09] >> Right. [44:10] All right. This is [44:13] from Torsten Slok. He says [44:16] he has a chart showing the US ADP weekly [44:19] employment. [44:21] He said it is Jevons paradox playing out [44:23] in real time. [44:25] Cheaper technology is creating more [44:27] demand and more jobs. And [44:29] this would be amazing. [44:33] This would be an incredible outcome. [44:35] Um [44:37] we will see. [44:38] I don't think that I think it is way too [44:40] early to draw any conclusions. Like [44:42] ridiculously early [44:44] to draw any conclusions. [44:46] But [44:48] I hope it happens. [44:50] I hope that all the fears and fears that [44:52] I I I shared I was the Citrine report [44:55] bummed me out. I'm not going to pretend [44:56] like I wasn't bummed out. I would love I [44:58] mean we would all love for nothing more [45:00] than for this to not be the case. [45:03] >> This is This is [45:05] there's certain segments that are going [45:07] to be disrupted obviously. I think the [45:09] hardest part is the people who are in [45:10] technology are the ones who are seeing [45:12] the biggest disruption right now. [45:14] And there's the people in technology are [45:15] like running around with their hair on [45:16] fire because they see what's happening [45:17] to the software developers in their [45:19] space. [45:20] And they're going, "No, you people don't [45:22] get it. You have no idea what's coming." [45:23] And I I can't tell if it's [45:25] >> they don't get it. I don't think they [45:27] understand human beings. [45:28] As a group I'm over I'm over [45:30] generalizing. [45:31] >> No, I I I definitely agree with that. I [45:33] think the emotional intelligence the EQ [45:35] of of tech in general is a lot lower [45:38] than other industries. And that's not a [45:40] slight. [45:40] >> So, Kevin Roose [45:42] No, their IQ is higher, their EQ is [45:44] lower. That's That's the That's the [45:45] computer brain. Like we all know people [45:46] like that. Kevin Roose tweeted overheard [45:49] in AI lab, "How are you spending last [45:50] 300 days of work?" [45:52] Bucco Capital retweeted and said, [45:53] "Increasingly think the only options for [45:55] the AI labs are to end up in prison or [45:57] as government employees." I think he's [45:59] being hop I mean I'm guessing he's being [46:00] hop but um he he said rhetoric and [46:03] outcomes they're pushing for are [46:05] completely incompatible with current [46:07] society. They're either wrong, enemies, [46:10] consumed. [46:12] So, I [46:13] >> The point is if if if everyone in AI is [46:15] right that whatever [46:17] 50 million jobs are going away. [46:19] Something's going to happen. [46:20] >> Yeah. So, [46:21] >> We're not just going to let that happen. [46:23] >> A friend of mine shared with me a [46:25] YouTube video on so somebody walking [46:27] through Google's Gemini Spark, which is [46:29] like the agenda stuff. Like here's how [46:30] it here's how it helps you throughout [46:31] the day, right? [46:33] Um [46:34] So, this is coming. I mean, it's here. [46:36] So, I haven't messed around with it yet [46:38] and and engage, but here's an example a [46:41] few micro examples of something that I [46:42] would love to have. Um [46:45] I don't want to be on Twitter. [46:46] It bums me out. It's a cesspool. [46:49] Um However, [46:52] that is where we get amazing content for [46:55] the show. [46:56] Like there's [46:57] >> have the right filter in place, Twitter [46:58] is still great. [46:59] >> There's there's there's tons of gold and [47:01] there's great aspects of Twitter, but I [47:03] don't want to be I don't want to be [47:04] engaged because I get drawn into the [47:05] negative aspects of it, okay? So, but I [47:07] need it. So, like I basically want like [47:09] a I want my agent to go through all of [47:12] our transcripts our our podcast [47:14] transcripts [47:15] find out the people that we pull charts [47:17] from all the time like my Sakardi and [47:19] Carl Quintanilla and Balchunas and blah [47:20] blah blah blah blah and just deliver [47:22] them to me like daily chart book does, [47:24] right? So, I'm sure I can build that. [47:26] I'm sure that exists. So, I will like [47:28] look to do something like that. Um [47:30] >> So, that's what Gavin Baker was on [47:31] Patrick's show and he said, "What do you [47:33] use it for?" He said, "I I have I take [47:35] all of the podcasts about AI and I have [47:38] I have it summarize it for me." [47:39] >> Here's another example that's going to [47:41] exist. If I wanted to know [47:44] the price every day [47:45] for what a Chipotle bowl cost in New [47:49] York City [47:50] and I wanted the eight the the AI to [47:52] track that over time, it could do that [47:54] very easily. It could go into [47:58] Chipotle, create an order, [48:01] and then just not hit submit and find [48:02] out what the order is, right? I just do [48:03] that every day. So, I could see the [48:04] trends like that you could do that. [48:07] >> Okay, why would you need that? [48:09] >> You don't, but just as like we're we're [48:11] covering Chipotle, right? We talk about [48:12] it. Now, of course you don't need it. [48:13] It's it's a silly micro example, but my [48:16] point is the possibilities are endless. [48:17] Okay, like for for so [48:20] um I am going to the NBA finals. [48:22] >> But this is why AI is going to lead to [48:24] more work for people. You know, I I I [48:25] listened to a a big tech person on a [48:27] podcast a few weeks ago, and he was [48:28] talking about how awesome it is and how [48:29] it's going to destroy all the jobs. And [48:30] he's I just I don't see how it doesn't [48:32] destroy every job. And the host asked [48:33] him, "What is like the coolest thing [48:35] that you've used AI for?" And he said, [48:36] "You know what? I had all these pictures [48:38] on my phone, and I had AI go through the [48:39] pictures and like sort them in different [48:42] buckets." And it's like [48:43] >> Amazing. [48:43] >> What good What No, but what good does [48:45] that do you as for as a human being? [48:47] It's just something that's kind of cool [48:48] to have. It doesn't actually do anything [48:50] for you. It's just cool to have. [48:52] >> It's very cool to [48:52] >> Plus, you're giving yourself more work [48:54] with AI. That's the thing that's going [48:55] to happen. [48:56] >> I love it. [48:57] >> As a as a hyper attention sort of [49:01] person, I I love more work. [49:02] >> People people think that it's going to [49:03] save them time. It's just going to be [49:05] doing more tasks that you weren't doing [49:07] before. [49:08] >> Yeah, sure. Of course. Of course. Here's [49:09] another thing. [49:10] Um Like I want to monitor the ticket [49:13] situation for the NBA finals. [49:16] I have to check it all the time. It's [49:17] annoying. If I could be automated, [49:20] if you have an agent do that, and of [49:21] course you can, [49:23] >> Right. [49:24] >> Fantastic. [49:25] Um all right. So, so it's all happening [49:28] in [49:29] in news that's not happening. That was a [49:31] God, what terrible segue that was. That [49:33] was super lame. Um Michael Saylor uh [49:36] last earlier earlier last year in [49:38] February 2025 tweeted, "Sell a kidney if [49:40] you must, but keep the Bitcoin." Well, [49:42] well, well, look how the tables have [49:44] turned. [49:46] Strat This is from Wall Street Journal. [49:47] Strategy, the Bitcoin hoarding firm [49:48] founded by Michael Saylor, said Monday [49:50] that it sold 32 Bitcoin. I mean, 32 [49:51] Bitcoin's not a lot of Bitcoin, but [49:52] nevertheless, he sold 32 Bitcoin last [49:54] week for roughly 2.5 million dollars. [49:56] Market's first sale since the depths of [49:58] the crypto winter in late 2022. Um, why? [50:01] Because they need to make payments on I [50:03] don't know if it's their preferred stock [50:05] or whatever it is. Uh, he told the Wall [50:06] Street Journal, "If you sold one Bitcoin [50:09] to buy 10 more Bitcoin, technically you [50:10] sold the Bitcoin, but economically you [50:12] bought nine more Bitcoin." That's like [50:14] Kenny Atkinson language. Analytically, [50:15] they they they want Give me a break. [50:17] Come on, dude. [50:18] >> I think that this is short-term negative [50:20] for crypto, long-term positive. If [50:21] they're If they're a forced seller of [50:23] Bitcoin, I think that's actually good. [50:24] That the I don't think him being the [50:26] face of Bitcoin is good for crypto. [50:30] Yeah, but I think actually if if they're [50:32] forced to as a seller, I think this is a [50:33] good thing long-term for crypto. [50:35] >> Uh, it depends how it depends how much [50:36] crypto they're forced to sell. But I I [50:37] agree with your general statement. So, [50:39] Bitcoin is at 68,000, um, [50:42] and uh, going lower. How is Strage? It [50:43] was actually wasn't even that that right [50:45] Oh, no, okay, it's more of that today. [50:47] It's down 7%. [50:47] >> don't you think that a lot of that that [50:49] a lot of it was kind of priced in? Like, [50:51] people knew this was coming. [50:53] >> Uh, what do you mean? [50:56] >> I don't know, the stock's already in a [50:57] 70% drawdown or something. I know it's [50:58] down even more today, but [50:59] >> Oh, I think I mean, it's down 7% today. [51:02] I don't I don't I don't know. I don't [51:02] know if it's priced in. I think that was [51:03] probably a result of crypto being down. [51:05] >> how the people who went all in on this [51:06] stock are doing, cuz there's a lot of [51:07] people who talked about like I'm [51:09] We We heard from a lot of, right? [51:11] >> Yeah, I uh [51:13] It's it's it's sad. I don't [51:16] >> All right, let's talk real estate. And I [51:17] I read this real estate story about real [51:19] estate agents are quitting this little [51:20] housing market. Which is like there's no [51:22] activity There's not a lot of activity, [51:24] right? So, of course [51:26] people Here's Here's a line from the Kim [51:28] Taylor better career in the housing [51:29] market. Mid-2023, [51:32] she launched her own brokerage account [51:32] with her hus- brokerage firm with her [51:34] husband. [51:35] All right. Uh, [51:36] she started out with a team of seven [51:37] agents and quickly brought six more [51:39] aboard on board. [51:40] By 2024, high mortgage rates and prices [51:42] were weighing on demand. Homes sat on [51:44] the market. Most real estate had to find [51:45] other part-time work or full-time jobs [51:47] to stay afloat. Her husband took a job [51:49] last year working for a school district. [51:50] She said, "We became a bleeding artery. [51:52] The last 11 months have been the hardest [51:53] of my career." [51:54] And so, [51:55] this is happening to realtors all over [51:57] the country, of course. And the thing [51:58] that [51:59] the hard part about this is, this is [52:01] nothing that these people did [52:02] personally. [52:04] They They didn't create this. They had [52:05] no control over this. The fact that the [52:07] housing market boomed, rates went lower, [52:09] then the housing market then rates went [52:11] higher and the housing market slowed. [52:12] These people had nothing to This is just [52:13] bad luck. [52:15] And I think it's important to recognize [52:16] it. You talked about like all the stuff [52:18] going well at the beginning of the [52:18] podcast for us. [52:20] Like some of this is just great timing. [52:23] Great Obviously hard work, yes. [52:25] But like right place, right time, too. [52:27] And sometimes you're just in the wrong [52:29] place at the wrong time. [52:30] >> Absolutely. Uh I I I I think that we [52:34] have earned a lot of our success. [52:38] But [52:39] I freaking met Josh at the train station [52:42] by an absolute miracle. [52:45] And had I not met Josh, and I've I've [52:47] said this a million times, [52:50] the reason why I am so appreciative is [52:52] cuz I was eating [ __ ] Like my life was [52:54] going really poorly. [52:57] I was 25 and I was my only friend that [52:59] was unemployed and I was unemployable. [53:02] Uh I was in a dark, dark spot. And And [53:05] it was my fault. It absolutely was my [53:07] fault. Um I was staring at the [53:10] consequences of my own actions as a [53:12] stupid young idiot. [53:14] Um [53:15] these people [53:17] did nothing wrong. They were in a a [53:19] booming industry that they were rug [53:21] pulled. And I mentioned like I mentioned [53:24] the the strategy investors that said [53:25] that they lost their money. I mean, [53:26] there's degrees of sad. That was like a [53:28] choice that they made and whatever. Um [53:30] this is sad. This is truly sad when [53:32] people's actual livelihood is being [53:34] torpedoed. And it is interesting um [53:37] that so much of the conversation during [53:39] the boom time were [53:41] "These people don't deserve 5%. What are [53:42] they even doing? [53:43] >> Right. [53:44] So, this the number from So, the typical [53:46] agent with 2 years experience or less [53:48] had three transactions in 2024 and [53:50] earned $8,100 in gross income. The [53:52] typical agent with that completed 10 [53:54] transactions earned $58,100 in gross [53:56] income. So, it's not like these people [53:57] are rolling in it, right? [53:59] >> That is brutal. Really sad. [54:02] >> It's up and so obviously there there's [54:03] people who are leaving and uh it said [54:05] about 71% of agents [54:07] surveyed by the NAR in 2025 said real [54:09] estate was their only professional, the [54:10] lowest proportion on record, meaning [54:12] they have to have other jobs to stay [54:13] afloat. [54:15] >> All right, Ben. So, movies are having a [54:17] moment. AMC Entertainment records [54:20] highest May attendance since 2019. Man, [54:23] I nailed the movie trade and I bought [54:24] the wrong stock. [54:26] So, I bought IMAX. I've held IMAX for a [54:29] long time. Um it's doing fine. [54:30] >> Wait, I thought IMAX did okay, no? [54:32] >> No, IMAX is doing fine. [54:34] But AMC is up Well, I mean, I'm not [54:36] buying AMC. It's a It's a It was a you [54:38] know, it was under a buck. So, I'm sort [54:39] of half joking. But it was up it went [54:42] from It was up like, I don't know, 40% [54:44] the last 2 days. [54:46] >> Yeah, but that's just because it's like [54:47] maybe not going out of business anymore. [54:48] This is still a stock that's 99%. [54:51] >> No, no, I I know it was it was up it was [54:52] up $2. I was I was teasing. But um [54:55] but [54:56] >> It's still down 99.4% [54:58] from the highs in 2021. [55:00] >> What's especially interesting By the [55:03] way, that was so weird that AMC was and [55:05] GameStop were the two faces of that [55:08] period. Just what a [55:09] AMC, what? Um all right. [55:12] What makes [55:13] >> the At least the boom right now is like [55:14] a real thing. That That You're right. [55:16] That was That was That was not a real [55:18] thing back then. [55:19] >> What makes this current moment in cinema [55:22] so very interesting and exciting [55:25] is that the two gigantic hits [55:29] over this and last week [55:32] um juxtaposed with what happened with [55:34] The Mandalorian is exactly what you want [55:36] to see. [55:37] So, [55:39] Star Wars earned just $6.5 million on [55:43] its second Friday. [55:44] $6.5 million, dude. That's a 70% drop. A [55:48] 70% drop. So, the fact that Backrooms, [55:53] which opened to $81 million, by far, by [55:55] far, by far, its biggest opening [55:57] weekend, and Obsession, which is going [55:59] to cross $100 million, [56:02] like both those movies are going to [56:03] smash Star Wars, is unbelievable. So, I [56:05] listened to [56:07] I listened to um The Big Picture did a [56:09] podcast [56:11] with uh this guy Kane Parsons, [56:14] who was the director of uh of Backrooms. [56:19] He was 18 when they greenlit this movie. [56:22] >> Jeez. [56:22] >> He's 20 years old. [56:23] >> What was the story he was a YouTube He [56:24] was making movies on YouTube? That's [56:25] what he was doing? [56:26] >> So, I came home and the next uh the next [56:29] morning, actually, Kobe said, "Daddy, [56:30] you saw Backrooms?" [56:32] And I'm like, "How do you know [56:33] Backrooms?" He goes, "It's on Roblox." [56:36] So, Backrooms was a YouTube series. [56:39] They've There's been over 224 [56:43] million views across 22 videos. So, I [56:46] raw-dogged it. I had no idea I I didn't [56:49] see the trailer. I didn't even know that [56:50] this was a YouTube thing [56:52] until I heard about this kid. [56:55] So, I went to see the theater [56:58] and uh [56:59] I saw an 8:50 on Friday night. [57:02] And there was at least at least two [57:05] other earlier showings. So, it was on at [57:07] least three screens. [57:09] When I left at 11:00, [57:11] there was a ton of young kids pouring [57:13] into [57:15] the theater. [57:16] So, Arts, Bill Arts, who is a huge movie [57:19] fan, [57:20] um [57:22] slacked me, "Okay, I don't I don't know [57:23] what to make of Backrooms." [57:26] And I'm going to quote myself cuz I [57:27] don't want to freelance. This is how I [57:29] felt. [57:30] I said, "So, I love that this is all [57:31] happening." [57:32] And that was also my reaction. Did I [57:34] love it? No. [57:36] Was there some aspects of it that I did [57:38] love? Yes. [57:39] More weird [ __ ] and risk-taking? [57:42] Yes, exclamation mark. [57:43] Um so I saw it in a packed theater. [57:46] And there were a lot of bright pieces. [57:48] So like it wasn't just a dark movie. So [57:50] you could see the audience, right? [57:52] And every time I looked around me, the [57:56] audience was enthralled [57:59] just a dead stare at the screen, no [58:03] phones, and it was a young crowd, dude. [58:08] Like it was a young crowd and nobody was [58:10] on their phone. And Art said, that's [58:12] exactly right. I don't think I'll watch [58:14] it again, but it was a singular [58:15] experience that I won't forget. It's [58:17] just really cool that we're getting [58:18] stuff like this rather than IP slop. And [58:20] I couldn't agree more. I'll I'll just [58:21] say that the opening scene was [58:23] was in my opinion pretty terrifying. But [58:26] it wasn't like it wasn't like a scary [58:28] movie that like um you know, you can't [58:30] that that person would be too scared to [58:32] watch. [58:33] Uh it was something else. [58:34] And it's exciting. And then Obsessions, [58:37] another indie movie, [58:38] I think broke broke a hundred million [58:40] dollars. I mean and that was another [58:41] kid. So both these kids were on [58:43] Fantasia's podcast and the maturity. So [58:46] that other guy uh who did [58:49] Obsession, I watched one of his YouTube [58:50] shorts called the the chair, which was [58:52] excellent. What's this kid's name? [58:55] Um [58:56] >> So these are these are horror movies cuz [58:58] I I have no idea what these movies are [58:59] about. It's just interesting to me that [59:02] the horror movie has subsumed the [59:04] superhero movie. But so like in the 40 [59:06] or the 50s and 60s, all the movies were [59:08] westerns. And now they never make [59:10] westerns anymore. This that's going to [59:11] be horror movies someday. They're making [59:13] so many horror Horror movies is the [59:15] genre. [59:15] >> It is. [59:16] >> Right, this is the western of of then. [59:17] >> Because it's so cheap. So this kid his [59:20] name his name is Curry Curry Barker. [59:22] They gave him a million bucks to make [59:23] this movie. [59:26] >> I'm impressed. I'm never going to see [59:27] these movies. I'm impressed. [59:29] >> It's It's [ __ ] so cool, man. I'm so [59:31] so so excited that we are over the hump [59:33] now. [59:34] There's still a ton of sequels. [59:36] >> you guys didn't exactly You and Bill [59:37] Burr didn't exactly sell it to me. Will [59:39] I ever watch this movie again? No. I [59:41] don't know if that sells the movie to [59:42] me. [59:42] >> Hold on. I want to come back to this for [59:43] a sec. Dune 3 is still going to be one [59:45] of the biggest movies of the year. Like [59:47] these sequels and the franchise movies [59:48] like Mario like those are still [59:50] dominating the box office, but the fact [59:51] that we're getting this as well and [59:53] hopefully there's more of that and [59:54] less of [59:55] >> Yeah, young filmmakers that's cool to [59:56] see. I agree. [59:57] >> All right. So maybe we didn't sell the [59:58] movie that well. Listen, don't watch it [60:00] on your couch. I mean, you might as well [60:01] skip it at that point. [60:03] But [60:05] going to the movies to see this was an [60:07] absolute experience. [60:09] And 100% and 100% worth it. If you were [60:11] like Now, if you're not a movie person, [60:13] don't watch it cuz you're going to go [60:14] there and be like, "What is that [60:15] bullshit?" Like fine, don't watch it. [60:17] >> No, if you're not a horror movie person. [60:18] I'm a movie person, not a horror movie [60:20] person. It does nothing for me. Horror [60:22] horror movies don't move my heart rate [60:24] at all. They don't do anything for me. [60:26] So I just can't watch them. [60:27] >> That's so crazy. I know that I know that [60:29] you're not alone in there, but uh [60:30] I was terrified at least in the opening [60:32] scene. So [60:33] I love it. I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm jacked to [60:36] the t's as Mr. Gosling said in in The [60:38] Big Short. Um all right. Did So [60:41] did you finish Half Man? [60:44] >> We're about one episode away. So that is [60:46] Honestly, it's one of the most stressful [60:48] shows I've ever watched and I almost [60:50] after the first episode I told my wife [60:51] I'm like, "I don't know if I can finish [60:52] this show. It's It's too much." But then [60:55] somehow it like draws you back in. [60:57] And it it gets crazy then it draws you [60:58] back in and it's that I can't even [61:01] explain what kind of show that that is. [61:05] >> It is Uncut Gems. It The anxiety that [61:08] you get from watching Uncut Gems is that [61:10] on HGH. [61:12] >> It's But it's for something that is [61:14] really well done though. [61:15] >> It is so dark and so demented, depraved, [61:19] and twisted. All right. So it is it was [61:21] so well done. It's one of my favorite [61:23] shows. Like the it's one of the it's one [61:25] of the the best mini-series I've ever [61:27] seen. [61:28] I thought it was [61:28] >> But it also kind of pulls you in and has [61:30] emotions to it, too. It's it's dark, but [61:32] it also has emotions. It's very bizarre. [61:34] I can't even [61:35] like compare it to another show before. [61:36] >> I'm so excited for you to see the [61:37] finale. [61:38] >> Okay. [61:39] >> All right. Um finally, [61:43] friend of the show, [61:45] my friend who was an executive at Amazon [61:47] Studios, [61:48] and 2 years ago he called me and told me [61:52] that I might be in [61:54] Spider-Man Noir, the Nicholas Cage show. [61:57] And he told me that he was writing me [61:58] into the show, and I was like, "Oh my [62:01] god, that's so cool." And it was like I [62:03] think it was 2 years ago. [62:05] So, as it's getting closer to release, [62:06] I'm getting like, you know, a little bit [62:07] anxious. Like I'm like, "Am I this you [62:08] know, this is going to be fun for me. I [62:09] want to show my kids." [62:11] Uh so, I'm in episode 3. [62:14] Nicholas Cage plays Spider-Man Noir. [62:17] And he goes into a hospital with an [62:19] alias. [62:21] And his alias his alias is Officer [62:22] Batnick. [62:24] So, he's outside the hospital and he's [62:26] going through some fake like I ID cards. [62:27] He's like, "He was Batnick, Batnick, [62:29] Batnick. That's the one." [62:30] So, he goes into the hospital. "Who are [62:32] you?" "I'm Officer Batnick." He goes [62:35] into a bedroom. He goes, "I'm Officer [62:36] Batnick, blah blah blah blah blah blah." [62:38] Um [62:39] my kids had like no reaction. They're [62:40] like, "Oh, Daddy is in Spider-Man." I [62:42] was like, [62:43] "What?" [62:45] >> Nothing, huh? [62:47] >> I What? Like I I thought their head was [62:49] going to melt. Um no reaction. [62:52] >> Okay. [62:53] >> I think it's like the coolest thing [62:54] ever. I'm So, thank you, Matt. [62:55] >> Hey, kids keep you grounded, right? [62:58] >> Sure do. [63:00] Anything for you, Ben? [63:01] >> Um [63:03] yes, you had the I I was listening to [63:04] the Rewatchables with Steven Spielberg, [63:05] and I I've never seen I've never seen [63:08] I've never seen Space Odyssey before. [63:10] Okay. [63:10] >> We have We have We have to play this [63:11] clip. [63:12] So, this gave me nachas, which is a [63:16] Jewish or Yiddish word for just [63:18] joy. [63:20] This made me so happy. [63:22] So, the The Rewatchables is my favorite [63:24] podcast. [63:26] Not even like I love it's my favorite [63:28] podcast of all time. There's not even a [63:29] number close number two. Um and to see [63:32] Sean Fennessey have this moment of joy [63:38] brought a tear to my eye. It was It was [63:39] I thought it was so It was so cool of to [63:41] see him get to experience this. So, I [63:42] want to play this for the audience, for [63:44] you guys. [63:45] So, he's He's He's talking to Steven [63:47] Spielberg. [63:49] >> Which is that in Dr. Strangelove, Major [63:51] Kong says, "Fire the explosive bolts." [63:55] And in 2001, the entry hatch sign reads, [63:58] "Caution: explosive bolts." [64:01] >> Oh, which is his own little [64:03] >> saw that. You know something? [64:06] >> Look at Sean teaching you about movies. [64:08] >> Hey guys, I'm just saying that I'm [64:10] having such a good time talking to both [64:11] of you about this movie, but that one [64:15] insight [64:17] just makes this day for me. [64:19] >> That's great. [64:20] >> It really does. [64:21] >> Best moment in the history of the [64:22] category. [64:23] >> orgasm right there. [64:25] >> Is that the coolest freaking thing ever? [64:27] >> That was pretty cool. [64:28] >> Like [64:28] >> So, I I told you last week that I I told [64:31] you I watched the Martin Short [64:31] documentary on Netflix, and he he [64:33] intersperses in the documentary a lot of [64:35] home movies, and he has a cabin on a [64:39] lake in Canada that they would go to [64:40] every summer. And the people who hung [64:42] out the most, because their kids were [64:43] all the same age, it was Marty Short and [64:45] his family, Tom Hanks and his family, [64:47] and Steven Spielberg and his family. And [64:49] he said, "Listen, all our kids were the [64:50] same age, so it just kind of made sense [64:52] to do." And all And they showed all [64:54] these home videos of these guys, and it [64:55] was Marty Short and Tom Hanks acting out [64:58] scenes for Steven Spielberg or [64:59] something. It's just nuts. It's Anyway, [65:01] really worth a watch. Interesting that [65:03] those those kind of guys were uh were [65:05] friends. [65:06] >> So, all right. Um what a time to be [65:09] alive. What a time to be an investor. [65:12] Uh [65:13] if you, like me, are uh enjoying a good [65:17] time in your life, [65:19] be thankful. That's my Jerry Springer. [65:21] That's my Jerry Springer impression. [65:22] Take care of yourself. [65:24] Any chance [65:24] >> is, obviously. [65:25] >> Not everyone is. So, [65:27] um [65:27] all right. [65:29] >> You're right. This is This is an [65:30] exciting time [65:31] in the markets at For the stuff that we [65:33] do, this is a very exciting time. [65:35] >> This is a time Yeah, we will we will [65:36] look back on these times. Hopefully with [65:38] fond memories. Hopefully this doesn't [65:39] turn into a bubble that bursts, but for [65:41] now it's it's really something to [65:42] experience. [65:42] >> know there's going to be pain at the end [65:44] of the rainbow at some point. [65:46] There's There is. There just is. This is [65:48] how markets work. Everything is [65:50] cyclical. Is that cycle 5 to 7 years [65:53] from now, or is it 1 year from now, or 3 [65:54] years from now? I don't know. There's [65:56] going to be pain at some point. [65:58] Prepare yourself for it. It's going to [65:59] happen. [66:01] >> So, next week I will take the other side [66:03] of that. Barely. I will just offer a We [66:06] cuz we spoke a lot about keeping an open [66:07] mind. [66:08] >> Mhm. [66:09] >> I will have the other the other take [66:11] next week, that this doesn't have to end [66:12] badly. [66:13] >> Okay. I'm not saying it even has to come [66:15] from AI. [66:16] >> No, no, no, no, no. [66:17] Don't Don't Don't Don't Don't hedge. [66:19] You said what you said. [66:21] >> Okay. [66:22] Yes, everything is cyclical. This cycle [66:24] will come to an end at some point. [66:26] But it could last a lot longer than [66:27] people think in the meantime. [66:30] >> All right. Animal Spirits at the [66:31] compoundnews.com. [66:33] Thank you very much, everybody, for [66:35] listening, for the emails. [music] [66:37] Hope everybody is enjoying their early [66:38] summer. Go Knicks. We'll see you next [66:40] time. [66:42] >> [music] [66:51] [music]