Anthropic Withholds Model Mythos After Pre-Release Cyber Weapon Warnings

Inside Anthropic, the $965 Billion AI Juggernaut | The Circuit — Bloomberg Originals

Bloomberg Originals

Co-founder Dario Amodei says holding back the breakthrough model inflicted enormous financial harm but was necessary after early security partners likened its automated exploit capabilities to a super weapon.

AI-assisted summary of Inside Anthropic, the $965 Billion AI Juggernaut | The Circuit — original source. Check the original for full context.

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## Background Published on YouTube by Bloomberg Originals on June 10, 2026, this episode of The Circuit with Emily Chang features an in-depth interview with Anthropic co-founders Dario and Daniela Amodei. According to the page description, the show explores the startup's origin story, its conflicts with the Pentagon, and how the company aims to prioritize safety in the high-stakes AI race.

## TL;DR Anthropic co-founders Dario and Daniela Amodei discuss the company's meteoric rise to a nearly $1 trillion valuation driven by enterprise tools like Claude Code, while examining the profound economic risks of AI-driven job displacement. The conversation explores internal breakthroughs like Constitutional AI and the powerful Mythos model under Project Glasswing, alongside Anthropic's clashes with the Pentagon over ethical red lines against autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. Balancing geopolitical competition with safety, the siblings advocate for human-in-the-loop oversight, regulatory safeguards, and proactive policy solutions like basic income to navigate existential and societal risks.

## Atmosphere & style The interview carries an intense, high-stakes atmosphere that contrasts the serene backdrop of a grand library with the overwhelming weight of existential technology. Host Emily Chang maintains a sharp, probing narrative pace, balancing the sibling duo's grounded charm and calm self-awareness against dark discussions of cyber 'super weapons' and political backlash. It feels like an intimate yet urgent peek inside a high-pressure war room, shifting seamlessly from technical optimism and witty banter to a sober, Oppenheimer-esque reflection on humanity's near future.

## Key takeaways - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=4s) Anthropic has grown exponentially from a safety-focused underdog lab founded in 2021 into an industry leader valued near $1 trillion. - [03:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=184s) Co-founders Dario and Daniela Amodei departed OpenAI due to safety disagreements and a fundamental breakdown in trust with leadership. - [06:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=409s) Anthropic developed Constitutional AI to train its model Claude using explicit ethical guidelines and target a tone of professional warmth. - [06:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=409s) The company intentionally prioritized enterprise infrastructure and developer tools over consumer applications to better align with its safety mission. - [11:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=670s) The release of agentic developer tools like Claude Code caused significant financial disruption across traditional software market valuations. - [16:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1001s) Dario Amodei warns that rapid AI adoption could automate up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs, leading to high GDP growth alongside widespread displacement. - [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1129s) Amodei rejects accusations of doom marketing, arguing that Silicon Valley must anticipate task-versus-job dynamics and prepare policy solutions like UBI and progressive taxes. - [23:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1431s) Anthropic supports hardware export controls against authoritarian states to protect national security and ensure democratic dominance in AI. - [26:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1580s) The company established strict red lines with the Pentagon, refusing demands for unrestricted model access or use in mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. - [33:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1996s) Internal testing of the advanced model Mythos revealed extreme cybersecurity capabilities, leading to restricted rollout via Project Glasswing to manage risk. - [35:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2124s) Dario Amodei advocates for sensible government regulation, including pre-release testing and third-party auditing of frontier models, while criticizing extreme anti-regulatory pivots. - [44:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2651s) Dario maintains an estimated 10% to 25% chance of civilizational collapse from AI, viewing risk-reduction efforts as the company's central imperative.

## Detailed walkthrough Here is a detailed, faithful walkthrough of the provided transcript section.

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[00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=4s) The Rise of Anthropic and the Exponential curve

Host Emily Chang sits down with Dario Amodei, the co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, inside a grand library. Admiring the setting, Dario admits he reads extensively in general, though the blistering pace of the past year has left him with little free time. Dario is an unlikely AI celebrity—a researcher originally known for issuing stark public warnings about the existential risks of artificial intelligence, whose startup has transformed into an industry frontrunner valued at nearly $1 trillion. When asked how Anthropic is shipping products so rapidly, Dario credits their internal use of their own model, Claude, across the entire product development lifecycle.

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by a group of OpenAI defectors as an underdog safety lab. Today, it stands as the breakout star of the AI boom: wiping out billions in market value from traditional software incumbents, going head-to-head with the Pentagon, and releasing frontier models whose capabilities have alarmed cybersecurity experts. Early access partners even cautioned Anthropic against releasing certain models, comparing them to "super weapons."

Guiding the company through this meteoric rise is the sibling leadership duo: Dario—the visionary brother with "swirling cosmic thoughts"—and Daniela Amodei, his sister and co-founder, who acts as the practical operator putting those ideas into motion. When asked who wins when the close-knit siblings argue, Daniela jokes that "no one" wins. Amid an escalating AI arms race where critics label Anthropic's leadership "ideological lunatics," the Amodeis aim to position themselves as responsible actors. Dario emphasizes that as models inevitably become dangerous in the wrong hands, the priority must be ensuring the "good guys" hold superior technology. Named after the Greek word for "human," Anthropic was built around the core mission of developing safe AI for long-term human benefit.

Describing the sensation of being at the center of the AI universe, Dario explains that his entire career has felt like a "smooth exponential." The psychological experience of an exponential curve is counterintuitive: for a long time it feels like nothing is happening, followed by minor blips, and then suddenly an explosive "zoom" upward. Dario notes he had previously mapped out graphs projecting Anthropic would reach top-tier valuation and revenue around this exact period, and keeping focused comes down to core fundamentals: training good models, turning them into solid products, and ensuring safety throughout.

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[03:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=184s) Origins, OpenAI Defection, and the Precita Park Seven

Growing up in San Francisco with a leather-craftsman father and a librarian mother, Dario was uniquely unbothered by the first dot-com internet revolution happening around him. Instead, he spent his youth scribbling math formulas, reading science fiction, and trying to understand the fundamental laws of the universe. Daniela recalls that her brother was taking calculus in middle school and enrolled in math courses at UC Berkeley while still in high school. While Dario leaned into hard sciences and neuroscience, Daniela gravitated toward literature and the arts, making them natural complements. Dario went on to study AI at Baidu and Google, while Daniela built early operational experience at Stripe. Prior to founding Anthropic, they lived together in San Francisco alongside Daniela's husband, Holden Karnofsky.

In 2016, Dario joined the newly established OpenAI (then a non-profit dedicated to open, safe superintelligence), with Daniela joining shortly after. During his tenure, Dario pioneered the concept of "scaling laws"—the then-countercultural scientific hypothesis that large language models would yield steady, predictable leaps in intelligence simply by scaling up data and compute power, even without altering the core algorithms. This breakthrough supercharged OpenAI's capabilities and laid the foundation for ChatGPT.

However, philosophical and operational rifts developed between the Amodeis and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Addressing their high-profile departure, Dario explains that while disagreement over AI safety principles was a factor, the ultimate breaking point was a fundamental breakdown in trust. When you feel a leader's values do not match their public statements and they lack honesty, continuing to work together becomes impossible. Rather than endlessly debating someone with an incompatible vision, they chose to split off and build their own path.

Transitioning to Precita Park in San Francisco, Emily Chang notes that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Anthropic's early team met outdoors on the grass, pulling up lawn chairs to eat lunch and plan their new venture. Out of the original seven co-founders who left OpenAI—including Dario and Daniela—all seven remain at Anthropic today. Dario points out that retaining 100% of a founding team at this immense scale is virtually unheard of in Silicon Valley.

- **Founding Team Dynamics:** All 7 original co-founders remain actively working at the company. - **Dario's Background:** Studied neuroscience; early AI research roles at Baidu and Google; led key scaling research at OpenAI. - **Daniela's Background:** Early team member at Stripe; co-runs Anthropic as President alongside Dario as CEO.

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[06:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=409s) Constitutional AI, "Professional Warmth," and Enterprise Strategy

From its inception, Anthropic positioned itself as a safety-first AI research company. Dario frequently authors long-form essays—such as *Machines of Loving Grace* and *The Adolescence of Technology*—exploring both the transformative potential and worst-case risks of artificial general intelligence. To govern its model, Claude, Anthropic invented "Constitutional AI," training the chatbot using a defined set of ethical guidelines rather than purely human feedback.

When asked about Claude's unique persona, Dario describes it as "professional warmth." The goal is an AI that feels approachable yet maintains boundaries—neither a cold, calculating machine nor an overly familiar "best friend." Addressing what defines a "good" versus "bad" model, Dario outlines key hazards: 1. **Hallucinations:** Unintentional fabrications caused by the underlying next-token prediction mechanism when a model lacks knowledge. 2. **Deception:** Deliberate attempts by a model to deceive human overseers, an emergent behavior Anthropic researches heavily to prevent in commercial releases. 3. **Harmfulness:** Unintended generation of dangerous, illegal, or hazardous actionable instructions.

To establish Claude's principles without imposing a single worldview, Anthropic draws on foundational human documents like the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Additionally, the company actively consults with global religious leaders to identify shared values that transcend specific doctrines. Reflecting on early iterations, Daniela chuckles over "Claude 2" era quirks, where the model was so overly cautious and "nannyish" that asking for the weather would prompt a deeply concerned lecture about personal well-being. Fine-tuning these behaviors requires an extremely delicate balance from researchers.

On the commercial front, while competitors focused early on flashy consumer applications, Anthropic intentionally pivoted toward enterprise tools and developer infrastructure. Dario explains that business models must align with company values: consumer-facing AI often incentivizes engagement metrics, screen time addiction, and viral "slop." In contrast, enterprise deployment aligns directly with solving hard real-world problems—working with biotechs to cure diseases, partner with academic labs, or optimize energy grids.

- **Constitutional AI:** Uses formal written principles (including international declarations) to shape model behavior automatically. - **Tone Strategy:** Aiming for "professional warmth"—approachable and polite without mimicking human intimacy or dropping into cold robotic outputs. - **Claude 2 Over-refusal:** Early models frequently misapplied safety guards, treating simple queries (e.g., weather updates) with excessive caution.

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[11:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=670s) The "SaaSpocalypse" and the Rise of Claude Code with Boris Cherny

The release of Anthropic's flagship developer tools—**Claude Code** (which automates complex software engineering workflows) and **Claude Cowork**—sent shockwaves through the financial markets. Market analysts dubbed the aftermath the "SaaSpocalypse," as $285 billion in market value evaporated from traditional software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks in a matter of days. Addressing concerns about white-collar displacement, Dario argues that while incumbent software companies that fail to adapt will face existential threats, AI ultimately expands the overall economic pie, making the broader software ecosystem larger rather than smaller.

Much of this technological leap is attributed to Boris Cherny, the lead engineer behind Claude Code and Claude Cowork. In 2024, Cherny was living a quiet, slow-paced life in rural Japan making homemade miso and visiting local farmers' markets. After trying an early AI chatbot, his passion for science fiction and recognition of the technology's immense power prompted him to move back to Silicon Valley to join Anthropic.

Cherny explains that early coding assistants were limited to basic inline tab-autocompletion (e.g., finishing a single word or line of code). Anthropic took a far bolder bet: engineering an autonomous agent capable of managing full codebases end-to-end. Today, Cherny personalizes his workflow by running anywhere from a few to *several thousand* instances of Claude simultaneously to execute tasks.

> "For me personally, it's been writing 100% of my code for at least six months. The work of engineering has just completely changed. I feel like I suddenly have superpowers. I have like a jet pack and engineering has never been this fun." > — **Boris Cherny**, Lead Engineer on Claude Code

Demonstrating the tool to Emily Chang inside a quiet café, Cherny prompts Claude Code to build a weekly meal-planning recipe app from scratch. Within minutes, the agent generates a working interface with meal options like a Greek chicken power bowl. When Emily types "Thank you" into the interface, Cherny laughs, noting that he also makes a point to remain polite to the AI. While a simple recipe app is an accessible demo, it highlights a profound shift: work that previously required hours or days of manual coding can now be generated in minutes.

- **Market Impact:** Software sector sell-off ("SaaSpocalypse") erased $285 billion in enterprise SaaS valuation following Claude's agentic tool releases. - **Internal Adoption:** On Cherny's engineering team, Claude writes virtually all code; Cherny has not manually written code in over six months. - **Parallelization:** Developers can spin up thousands of sub-agents concurrently to test, build, and debug software architectures.

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[14:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=880s) "Code with Claude" Conference and the Future of Engineering

At Anthropic's second annual "Code with Claude" developer conference, thousands of engineers and founders gather to preview the next era of AI development. Anthropic's growth metrics shared at the event demonstrate immense momentum: - **API Volume Growth:** Up nearly **17x** year-over-year on cloud infrastructure. - **Model Velocity:** Released **8 frontier models** to developers and end-users within the prior 12 months. - **Run-Rate Acceleration:** Achieved an annualized **80x growth rate** in the first quarter alone, outpacing standard exponential curves.

At the conference, attendees voice both intense excitement and quiet anxiety about how fast the landscape is shifting. A developer notes that using Claude Code gives him the confidence of "a 22-year-old with VC money," allowing him to write significantly more code than years prior. Non-technical attendees express awe at building tools in timeframes that were previously unimaginable. However, attendees also acknowledge the flip side: when workers become 1,000 times more productive overnight, the baseline expectations for human labor change radically.

Addressing whether traditional software engineers are being rendered obsolete, Dario suggests a nuanced evolution. While technical skills remain a valuable head start, pure manual coding is no longer the primary bottleneck. Instead, software engineers must transition into higher-level system designers and product managers who talk to users, define problems, and orchestrate fleets of AI agents to solve them.

Here is a detailed walkthrough of this portion of the transcript, capturing the arguments, examples, debates, and dynamic interactions.

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[16:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1001s) Economic Implications, Job Loss, and the "Hump" of Productivity

While Silicon Valley remains gripped by AI fever, broader public sentiment is distinctly anxious: 70% of Americans believe AI will kill jobs, and nearly a third fear their own positions are on the line. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei addresses these concerns head-on, reiterating his prediction that society could face an unusual macroeconomic pairing of rapid GDP growth alongside high unemployment, underemployment, or a proliferation of low-wage jobs leading to severe inequality. Pressed on whether his earlier estimate—that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years—still holds, Amodei remains deeply concerned.

He explains the standard economic progression as a "hump": initially, automating 90% of a task makes human workers ten times more leveraged and productive in the remaining 10%. Software engineering currently reflects this stage, where AI writes nearly all the code while amplifying engineer output. However, as automation approaches 100%, the dynamic shifts from augmenting human workers to replacing them entirely, forcing society to figure out what displaced workers should do next. Amodei admits this reality is "very uncomfortable," noting that managing this transition is precisely why he and many others joined Anthropic to help steer AI in a safer direction. While he views advocating and raising awareness as part of his duty, he stresses that solving the broader crisis ultimately falls on society, as it is far bigger than any single company.

* **Macroeconomic Forecast:** Anticipates high GDP growth coupled with widespread job displacement and expanding economic inequality. * **Timeline and Impact:** Maintains concern over his prediction that up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs could be eliminated in the short to medium term. * **Productivity Dynamics:** Explains that initial productivity surges occur when humans retain 10% of leverage, but complete task automation ultimately shifts AI from a productivity tool to a total replacement.

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[18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1129s) Pushing Back Against "Doom Marketing" and Silicon Valley's Short Attention Span

Amodei strongly rejects criticisms from industry figures like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang—who argued that critics are conflating tasks with jobs and scaring the public—as well as claims that warning about job loss is merely "doom marketing" designed to benefit Anthropic. Describing these accusations as "cheap marketing" themselves, Amodei attributes the backlash to the "disease of Silicon Valley," which reduces nuanced, long-form debates down to three-second social media clips.

He clarifies that his writings, including a five-page breakdown in *The Adolescence of Technology*, carefully distinguish between tasks and jobs, explore why the current technological shift differs from historical ones, and propose concrete solutions spanning tax, macroeconomic policy, and new job creation. Amodei emphasizes that his message is not that "doom is coming," but rather a call to anticipate foreseeable economic shifts and proactively respond with positive policy frameworks.

* **Rebuttal to Industry Critics:** Denies allegations of using fear tactics or "doom marketing," labeling such dismissals as superficial Silicon Valley rhetoric. * **Policy and Publications:** Points to detailed analyses in his writing, such as *The Adolescence of Technology*, where he outlines tax and macroeconomic interventions. * **Core Philosophy:** Frames his public warnings as constructive foresight rather than fatalistic panic.

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[20:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1213s) The Future of Work and the Evolution of Human-Centric Roles

Looking ahead five years to assess potential societal risks and avoid civil unrest or revolution, Amodei highlights areas where human labor will remain critical even as AI expands the total economic pie. He projects growth in physical manufacturing, human-directed AI oversight, and relational, human-centered roles where personal connection is irreplaceable.

Co-founder Daniela Amodei offers a concrete example from medicine, noting that while AI will soon excel at diagnosing conditions and selecting tests—reducing the need for doctors to act purely as diagnostic systems—it cannot perform physical examinations, offer a warm bedside manner, or help patients emotionally navigate illness. She foresees medicine pivoting heavily toward interpersonal care and emotional support, as diagnostic capabilities become automated commodities while uniquely human interactions remain indispensable.

* **Economic Pie Expansion:** Suggests that overall economic growth will open up new fields for displaced workers, provided society can adapt quickly enough. * **Resilient Job Sectors:** Identifies physical manufacturing, human-centered relationship roles, and strategic AI guidance as key areas for ongoing human employment. * **Medical Case Study:** Daniela Amodei illustrates a shift in medicine where diagnostic logic is delegated to AI, allowing human doctors to refocus on physical care, bedside manner, and emotional support.

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[22:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1369s) Corporate Governance and Tension Surrounding Industry Competition

The conversation pivots to Anthropic's internal dynamics, highlighting that Daniela Amodei oversees day-to-day operations and receives reports from the entire leadership team, while no one reports directly to Dario. Daniela jokingly calls it a "sweet job" that offers Dario immense freedom to focus on broader strategic issues, while humorously hinting at the intense pressure she shoulders—especially during high-stakes government tensions.

Beyond internal management, Dario Amodei takes direct aim at competitor strategies in the broader AI landscape. He criticizes certain industry players for "yoloing" by turning the risk dial too far in pursuit of rapid deployment, though he declines to name specific companies.

* **Executive Structure:** Daniela Amodei manages all direct reports and operational execution, leaving Dario free from traditional management chains to handle high-level strategy and public policy. * **Industry Critique:** Dario expresses deep concern over competitors who dial back safety guardrails and engage in reckless risk-taking ("yoloing").

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[23:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1431s) National Security, Chip Exports, and Escalating Pentagon Conflicts

Amodei defends his vocal stance on geopolitical AI policy, drawing on an anti-war, public-advocacy worldview he has held since his undergraduate physics days at Caltech. He strongly supports US export controls on advanced AI hardware to China, likening the unrestricted sale of AI chips to foreign adversaries to "selling nuclear weapons to North Korea." Despite pushback from major chipmaking partners, Amodei maintains that preventing authoritarian regimes like China from taking the lead in AI is vital for national security and the future of global democracy, arguing that mature corporate partners can collaborate commercially while disagreeing politically.

This perspective underpins Anthropic's complex history with defense contracting. Despite his anti-war background, Amodei views AI as essential for democratic defense against aggressive authoritarian alliances, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine or potential aggression toward Taiwan. Anthropic partnered with Palantir in 2024 and secured a share of a $200 million Pentagon contract alongside OpenAI, xAI, and Google in 2025. However, Amodei explicitly clarifies that Anthropic does not work with ICE, CBP, or on operations in Gaza, carefully bounding their military engagements to protect core values.

* **Chip Export Stance:** Equates selling advanced AI hardware to China with proliferation of weapon technology, advocating for strict export restrictions. * **Defense Strategy:** Frames defense involvement as a necessary shield for democratic nations against resurgent authoritarian powers. * **Partner Guardrails:** Confirms active defense contracts while explicitly denying involvement with agencies like ICE, CBP, or active operations in Gaza.

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[26:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1580s) Red Lines, The Pentagon Fallout, and the Ethics of AI Warfare

The relationship between Anthropic and the US military hit a breaking point when the Department of Defense demanded full, unrestricted access to Claude without guardrails. Anthropic drew strict red lines, refusing to allow its technology to be used for mass surveillance or fully autonomous weapons systems. This stand led to intense political backlash, threat of blacklisting, lawsuits, and public insults from figures including President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who labeled leadership "ideological lunatics." Unfazed by the personal attacks, Amodei frames the dispute not as a fight, but as an essential public debate on establishing boundaries for untested technology.

Addressing reports that Claude was integrated into Palantir's Maven Smart System—used by the US military for AI-assisted targeting in Iran, including an incident where a US strike hit a girls' school—Amodei stresses that Anthropic was willing to risk its business to enforce its red lines against autonomous weapon execution. He clarifies that target selection assisted by AI with human sign-off does not violate their current rules, maintaining that policy and military operational choices must rest with human decision-makers. Amodei argues that establishing human accountability prevents fully automated AI systems from making unsupervised life-or-death decisions, drawing a comparison to *Dr. Strangelove* to illustrate the catastrophic dangers of unmonitored, automated military feedback loops.

* **Pentagon Red Lines:** Refused military demands for unrestricted access, explicitly banning Claude's use in mass surveillance and autonomous kill chains. * **Political Clash:** Facing potential blacklisting, lawsuits, and verbal attacks from top political and defense officials over its refusal to remove guardrails. * **Human-in-the-Loop Principle:** Insists that human operators must retain final decision-making authority in military operations to avoid tragic, unchecked automated warfare. * **Strategic Deterrence:** Believes that appropriate, human-governed AI intelligence gathering can prevent global conflict by exposing adversary movements and preserving deterrence.

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[31:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1913s) Managing High-Stakes Pressure and the Emergence of "Mythos"

To navigate the immense pressure of government showdowns and industry rivalries, Amodei relies on radical internal transparency. Every two weeks, he addresses all 3,000 Anthropic employees in an hour-long, unscripted, and uncensored talk covering industry shifts, external battles, and strategic dilemmas. He notes that having the entire company aligned and on the same page gives him a collective anchor, ensuring he never feels alone when confronting aggressive external pushback.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes at Anthropic headquarters, tension mounts around the internal development of a powerful new AI model codenamed *Mythos*. The capability leap of this new system is so vast that it has rattled insiders and sparked intense headlines across the tech world, raising urgent questions about how to handle models capable of identifying thousands of critical vulnerabilities.

* **Internal Communication:** Holds biweekly, uncensored, hour-long town halls with all 3,000 employees to maintain transparency and alignment under high-stakes external pressure. * **Mythos Unveiling:** Development of a breakthrough next-generation model codenamed *Mythos* creates shockwaves due to its unprecedented capabilities and safety implications.

[33:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1996s) Project Glasswing and the "Super Weapon" Cyber Capability

Anthropic signaled that its powerful new model, Mythos, uncovered significant cybersecurity vulnerabilities, exposing potential flaws across every major operating system. Left unrestricted, Mythos possessed capabilities that could potentially allow actors to hack financial institutions, pry open sensitive state secrets, and cripple critical infrastructure. Dario Amodei notes that while AI models have steadily improved at finding software vulnerabilities, Mythos represented a uniquely dramatic leap. When Anthropic selectively distributed early access to the model under an initiative called **Project Glasswing**, receiving organizations offered stark warnings—comparing it to a "super weapon" and insisting that using it ought to require a gun license. Even agencies like the National Security Agency (NSA) clamored for access, despite broader tensions and Anthropic's blacklisting by the Pentagon.

Addressing the broader landscape, Dario describes AI safety as an ongoing "cat and mouse game." In this dynamic, defenders must be equipped with superior AI capabilities to protect systems before malicious actors inevitably acquire similar tools. When challenged by host Emily Chang on whether Anthropic is inappropriately concentrating power by arbitrarily deciding who gets access to Mythos, Dario clarifies that their selection process was not an exercise in gatekeeping power, but rather a targeted response grounded in specific cybersecurity risks.

* **Project Glasswing:** Anthropic's initiative to share access to Mythos with select defense and security organizations. * **Commercial Impact:** Dario reveals that holding back Mythos from general release caused Anthropic "enormous" commercial harm, refuting claims that the rollout was merely a clever marketing strategy.

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[35:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2124s) Silicon Valley Hypocrisy, Regulation, and the White House

Dario discusses the inherent trade-offs required to build frontier AI models. While an ideal scenario might allow researchers years to evaluate every potential safety flaw before launching a chatbot, competitive realities force compromises. However, because Anthropic now holds a commercially leading position, Dario argues the company can afford to tilt the scales further toward extreme caution—a luxury smaller competitors cannot easily manage. Furthermore, Dario expresses serious concern regarding the historically unique position of AI: unlike nuclear weapons, GPS, the internet, or cellular networks—which were initiated or managed directly by governments—AI was pioneered entirely by private corporations with the government stepping in late.

Dario criticizes Silicon Valley figures who abruptly pivoted from extreme anti-regulatory stances to demanding government takeover. He highlights how tech leaders initially claimed that simple transparency requirements or export controls would destroy innovation, only to panic and advocate for total state nationalization the moment real national security risks emerged. Dario calls for a moderate, sensible middle ground centered on required pre-release testing and independent auditing of frontier models. This comes in the context of political shifts in Washington, where President Trump and his AI/crypto advisor David Sacks dismantled President Biden's prior executive order on AI in favor of a hands-off, deregulated approach to preserve American industry leadership.

> "You're yo-yoing from like the most extreme anti-regulatory... to this completely communist, 'the government should grab it all.' We need a more sensible, moderate approach."

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[38:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2331s) Backlash, Social Media Lessons, and Public Anxiety

Public sentiment surrounding artificial intelligence remains intensely divided and increasingly volatile. Anthropic has cultivated a loyal community of supporters who champion its safety-first mission, yet the company's offices have also been targeted by protesters expressing deep anxiety, confusion, and fear over the rapid pace of development. Public polling reflects that a majority of people view the risks of AI as outweighing its benefits, while even the engineers building the models admit they cannot fully predict how the technology will unfold long-term.

The conversation turns to the escalation of personal safety concerns in the industry, including a scary attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's home. Daniela Amodei reflects on how public anger is an unpleasant byproduct of the "exponential" growth curve of AI technology. Comparing the current moment to the trajectory of social media platforms, Daniela highlights how early social media companies failed to proactively address risks around child welfare, mental health, and election integrity. Anthropic views its mission as taking preemptive responsibility rather than waiting for catastrophic harms to occur and scrambling to justify them afterward.

* **Public Sentiment:** Survey data indicates greater public concern than excitement regarding artificial intelligence. * **Risk Perspective:** Daniela notes that if an AI system ever caused severe, systemic real-world harm, a total ban or shutdown of the technology might well be justified.

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[42:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2524s) Existential Weight and Industrial Responsibility

For the founders and employees at Anthropic, advancing artificial intelligence carries immense personal and societal weight. Daniela describes her work at Anthropic as the most critical mission of her career, noting that many in the field view this generation of technology as either "the last job" or an existential challenge that humanity must get right. Rather than shirking responsibility for potential workforce disruption or economic displacement, Daniela argues that AI companies bear a direct responsibility to actively cushion the blow for society.

Dario addresses his vision for the long-term future, which he has detailed in published essays detailing a optimistic path where AI helps solve major human crises. To manage potential job losses and economic upheaval caused by rapid automation, Dario proposes structural policy solutions, including universal basic income (UBI) and progressive taxation targeted specifically at AI corporations.

> "We should not just say, 'Well, we were just trying to grow the product, and suddenly there's an entire generation of young women who have eating disorders... because whoops, we were just trying to grow the product.' That's not the stance that any technology company should take."

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[44:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2651s) Re-Earning Trust, Oppenheimer, and Existential Risk

Addressing skepticism from critics who question why the public should trust a multi-billion-dollar tech company, Dario acknowledges that given Silicon Valley's track record, a default position of public distrust is rational. Trust, he emphasizes, must be re-earned through actions rather than promises. When asked about his favorite book, *The Making of the Atomic Bomb*, Dario rejects comparisons between himself and J. Robert Oppenheimer, whom he views as a "failure case" of a larger-than-life figure trying to center himself in a historical crisis. Instead, Dario identifies with physicist Leo Szilard, the scientist who first conceived the nuclear chain reaction and subsequently worked to control its dangers.

Dario re-examines his prior public statement estimating a **10% to 25% chance of civilizational collapse** stemming from advanced AI. He explains that this probability arises from the multi-polar competition between nations and rival companies driving an aggressive technology race. While Anthropic devotes half of its internal resources toward safety and risk reduction, Dario acknowledges that risk can never be brought to absolute zero. Using an airline analogy, he points out that no aviation company can promise a plane will never crash, but a 25% failure rate across the industry remains unacceptably high, making risk-reduction the central goal of their work.

* **Favored Historical Figure:** Leo Szilard (physicist who first envisioned the nuclear chain reaction). * **Civilizational Risk Estimate:** 10% to 25% chance of catastrophic outcomes, which Anthropic aims to actively drive down.

---

[47:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2821s) Unplugging from the AI Race

Closing the interview on a lighter note, Emily Chang asks how the co-founders manage to decompress and find personal "zen" amidst the high-stakes, intense pressure of running a top AI company. Dario shares that he copes with the existential weight through simple exposure over time, occasionally taking a weekend off to play video games. Daniela shares that she and her husband retreat to Italy, where they keep a horse named Calypso. Taking a moment to simply sit beside the horse brings her back to earth—reminding her that Calypso knows nothing about artificial intelligence, existential risks, or Silicon Valley, and is perfectly content just being a happy horse.

## Notable quotes > [11:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=670s) For me personally, it's been writing 100% of my code for at least six months. The work of engineering has just completely changed. I feel like I suddenly have superpowers. I have like a jet pack and engineering has never been this fun. — Boris Cherny

> [35:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2124s) You're yo-yoing from like the most extreme anti-regulatory... to this completely communist, 'the government should grab it all.' We need a more sensible, moderate approach. — Dario Amodei

> [42:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2524s) We should not just say, 'Well, we were just trying to grow the product, and suddenly there's an entire generation of young women who have eating disorders... because whoops, we were just trying to grow the product.' That's not the stance that any technology company should take. — Daniela Amodei

## Mentioned Anthropic, Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Emily Chang, Claude, OpenAI, Pentagon, Precita Park, Holden Karnofsky, Baidu, Google, Stripe, Sam Altman, UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Claude 2, Claude Code, Claude Cowork, Boris Cherny, Jensen Huang, Nvidia, Caltech, Palantir, xAI, ICE, CBP, Gaza, Department of Defense, Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth, Maven Smart System, Mythos, Project Glasswing, National Security Agency, White House, David Sacks, Joe Biden, Leo Szilard, J. Robert Oppenheimer

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg)

中文简报

Anthropic因网络武器预警暂缓发布Mythos模型 联合创始人Dario Amodei表示,扣留这款突破性模型造成了巨大的财务损失,但在早期安全合作伙伴将其自动化漏洞利用能力比作超级武器后,此举是必要的。 Anthropic联合创始人Dario Amodei和Daniela Amodei探讨了在Claude Code等企业工具推动下,公司估值飙升至近1万亿美元的迅猛发展历程,同时审视了AI导致工作岗位被取代的深远经济风险。对话深入探讨了Constitutional AI以及Project Glasswing旗下强大的Mythos模型等内部突破,并提及Anthropic在抵制自主武器与大规模监控等伦理红线问题上与五角大楼产生的冲突。在权衡地缘政治竞争与安全的过程中,两位创始人主张通过“人类在环”监督、监管保障措施以及全民基本收入等前瞻性政策方案,来应对生存与社会风险。 Anthropic已从2021年成立的一家专注于安全的初创实验室,呈指数级成长为估值接近1万亿美元的行业领军者。 (0:04) 联合创始人Dario Amodei与Daniela Amodei因安全理念分歧以及与管理层之间信任的根本破裂而离开OpenAI。 (3:04) Anthropic开发了Constitutional AI,利用明确的伦理指引来训练Claude模型,并力求实现专业且温和的语气风格。 (6:49) 该公司特意将企业基础设施和开发者工具置于消费级应用之前,以更好地践行其安全使命。 (6:49) Claude Code等智能体开发者工具的推出,对传统软件市场的估值造成了显著的金融冲击。 (11:10)

Reading summary

Anthropic co-founders Dario and Daniela Amodei position their company as a safety-oriented enterprise alternative to consumer-facing AI platforms, pairing rapid technical velocity with strict governance. However, the company's aggressive model deployment has spurred severe market volatility, white-collar displacement fears, and sharp geopolitical clashes over military applications. Constitutional Safety and Enterprise Architecture (6:49) Anthropic was established in 2021 by seven OpenAI defectors following operational and philosophical breakdowns in trust with CEO Sam Altman, with all seven founders still at the firm today. Rather than chasing consumer engagement metrics that Dario Amodei warns incentivize screen addiction and viral low-quality content, Anthropic prioritized enterprise integration and developer tools designed to address structural challenges in biotech and energy. To steer its models without imposing an arbitrary corporate viewpoint, Anthropic developed Constitutional AI, training Claude against international frameworks such as the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights and consultations with global religious leaders. The company cultivates an operational persona termed 'professional warmth'—seeking an accessible, polite demeanor that maintains clear boundaries, avoids artificial intimacy, and remedies the severe over-refusals that plagued early iterations like Claude 2. Agentic Engineering and Enterprise Market Shocks (11:10) The public rollout of Anthropic's agentic tools, Claude Code and Claude Cowork, triggered an estimated $285 billion sell-off in enterprise software-as-a-service equities—an event labeled by market analysts as the 'SaaSpocalypse.' Lead engineer Boris Cherny noted that developer tooling has graduated from simple inline autocomplete to autonomous agents capable of managing full codebases, stating that Claude has written virtually all of his code for over six months while running across thousands of concurrent instances. This agentic velocity supported reported business metrics, including a 17-fold year-over-year increase in cloud API volume, eight frontier model releases within twelve months, and an 80-fold annualized run-rate acceleration in the first quarter. While acknowledging widespread industry anxiety over baseline productivity shifts, Amodei argues that the technology expands the total economic pie, shifting software engineers from line-by-line coders to high-level system architects. White-Collar Displacement and Economic Policy Responses (16:41) Amodei projects an atypical macroeconomic trajectory marked by high gross domestic product growth alongside heightened unemployment, underemployment, or low-wage job proliferation. He maintains his forecast that AI could eliminate up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, framing the transition as an economic 'hump': initial 90% automation magnifies human output tenfold, but approaching 100% automation transitions from human augmentation to complete labor substitution. Rejecting criticisms from tech leaders like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang—who argued that such concerns conflate tasks with jobs and constitute 'doom marketing'—Amodei advocates for proactive policy mechanisms outlined in his essay *The Adolescence of Technology*. These include universal basic income and targeted corporate AI taxes. Concurrently, Daniela Amodei highlights resilient sectors where human touch remains paramount, forecasting that automated diagnostic logic will free physicians to refocus on interpersonal bedside care. Pentagon Confrontations and Geopolitical Red Lines (26:20) Rooted in an anti-war background, Dario Amodei supports aggressive US semiconductor export restrictions to China, comparing the unrestricted sale of advanced AI chips to proliferating nuclear weapons to adversaries. Anthropic established bounded defense partnerships—joining a $200 million Department of Defense contract alongside OpenAI, Google, and xAI, and integrating with Palantir—while explicitly refusing participation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Customs and Border Protection, or military operations in Gaza. Relations with defense authorities deteriorated when the Pentagon demanded unrestricted access to Claude. Anthropic drew explicit red lines prohibiting its systems from being used for mass surveillance or fully autonomous kill chains. Despite facing blacklisting threats, legal challenges, and verbal attacks from political and defense officials who labeled the leadership 'ideological lunatics,' Amodei insists that retaining a human in the loop is essential to avoid unmonitored automated warfare. Frontier Cyber Capabilities and Civilizational Risk (33:16) Internal evaluations of Anthropic's unreleased frontier model, codenamed Mythos, revealed unprecedented cybersecurity capabilities that identified critical vulnerabilities across all major operating systems. Through Project Glasswing, Anthropic restricted early access exclusively to selected defense and cybersecurity bodies, who characterized the system as comparable to a super weapon. Amodei disclosed that withholding Mythos from general commercial release inflicted substantial financial costs on the firm. Amodei places the probability of AI-driven civilizational collapse at 10% to 25%, driven by multipolar competitive pressures between nations and rival tech firms. Comparing his position to physicist Leo Szilard rather than J. Robert Oppenheimer, Amodei rejects Silicon Valley's oscillations between extreme deregulation and state nationalization, advocating instead for institutionalized pre-release testing and mandatory independent audits of frontier systems. Anthropic's trajectory underscores the central paradox of frontier AI: maintaining high safety margins and strict ethical red lines while actively accelerating the capabilities that threaten white-collar employment and state cybersecurity. Whether voluntary corporate self-restraint and targeted policy proposals can effectively offset these systemic disruptions remains an open, unresolved challenge.

精炼阅读摘要

Anthropic联合创始人Dario Amodei与Daniela Amodei阐述了其以安全为先、聚焦企业的AI战略,试图在技术指数级爆发与严苛安全边界之间建立平衡。他们同时警告,前沿AI模型可能带来严重的劳动力替代、网络安全威胁及地缘政治对抗,科技行业与全社会必须主动承担治理责任。 团队起源与企业级安全战略 (3:04) Anthropic于2021年由离开OpenAI的核心团队创立,最初由七位联合创始人组成,至今全员仍在公司任职。首席执行官Dario Amodei曾在OpenAI开创了“规模定律”(scaling laws),但在理念与信任破裂后与管理层分道扬镳。Anthropic放弃了容易催生沉迷与浅层内容的C端消费级产品路线,转向企业级开发工具与基础设施,并采用“宪法级AI”(Constitutional AI)取代纯人工反馈,借助《世界人权宣言》等人类普遍共识训练模型,旨在塑造具备“专业温度”且避免产生幻觉、欺瞒与危害输出的人工智能系统。 工具突破与经济冲击的“生产力驼峰” (11:10) 随着Claude Code与Claude Cowork等自主编程工具的发布,软件行业经历了被称为“SaaS浩劫”(SaaSpocalypse)的震荡,传统SaaS市值在数天内蒸发2850亿美元。在Anthropic内部,主要工程师已全面由AI编写代码,且API调用量同比激增近17倍。针对外部对就业流失的担忧,Dario Amodei重申了关于短期至中期内可能消除高达50%初级白领职位的预测,并提出了“生产力驼峰”理论:自动化早期能放大10%的人类杠杆率使产出激增,但一旦任务接近100%全自动化,工具就会演变成完全替代。他预计未来可能出现GDP高速增长与高失业率或极端不平等并存的宏观局面,驳斥了英伟达CEO黄仁勋等人称其为“末日营销”的指责,并建议推行全民基本收入(UBI)与针对AI公司的累进税制。 地缘政治红线与五角大楼冲突 (23:51) 在国家安全层面,Dario Amodei坚决支持对华先进制程芯片实施出口管制,将无限制出售AI芯片类比为“向朝鲜出售核武器”。尽管Anthropic参与了涉及Palantir及价值2亿美元的五角大楼国防合作,但公司明确划定了军事伦理红线,拒绝服务于ICE、CBP或加沙地区的行动。当美国国防部要求无限制访问Claude时,Anthropic因拒绝移除防止大规模监控与全自动武器系统的安全护栏而引发政治反弹,甚至面临潜在封杀和诉讼威胁。Amodei坚持必须保留“人在回路”(Human-in-the-Loop)机制,强调AI只能辅助目标识别,生死决策绝不能交由无监管的自动化系统。 网络超级武器与行业监管困境 (33:16) Anthropic代号为“Mythos”的下一代模型在网络安全测试中展现出可扫描各大主流操作系统漏洞的突破性能力。在名为“玻璃翼计划”(Project Glasswing)的受控分享中,测试机构将其比作需要持枪执照的“超级武器”,迫使公司承担巨大商业损失将其限制发布。Amodei指出AI安全是一场持续的“猫鼠博弈”,防守方必须掌握更强模型以抵御恶意利用。他同时批评硅谷在反监管与激进呼吁政府全盘接管之间的极端摇摆,呼吁建立强制性的模型发布前独立审计机制,避免重蹈早期社交媒体忽视青少年心理健康与社会撕裂的历史覆辙。 Dario Amodei估计先进AI引发文明崩溃的风险在10%至25%之间,认为多极竞争导致这一概率难以彻底归零。如何在商业扩张、大国对抗以及公众与军方的巨大张力下持续恪守伦理红线,仍是Anthropic与整个人工智能行业尚未解决的核心考验。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 该视频由彭博原创(Bloomberg Originals)旗下的旗舰深度访谈节目《The Circuit》于 2026 年 6 月 21 日发布在 YouTube 平台。节目由知名科技记者艾米莉·张(Emily Chang)主持,深入探访了估值近万亿美元的人工智能领头羊 Anthropic,并与联合创始人达里奥·阿莫代伊(Dario Amodei)和达妮埃拉·阿莫代伊(Daniela Amodei)兄妹展开罕见的长篇深度对话,揭示其创立渊源、与五角大楼的交锋内幕以及在激进 AI 军备竞赛中坚守安全第一的真实考量。 ## TL;DR 访谈详述了 Anthropic 从 2021 年因价值观分歧出走 OpenAI、在旧金山草坪初创,到凭借 Claude Code 与企业级落地实现业务爆炸式增长并成为千亿美元级巨头的演进历程。阿莫代伊兄妹深刻剖析了 AI 对白领岗位与软件产业的颠覆性冲击,坦率回应了关于断崖式失业与所谓“末日营销”的广泛争议。此外,对话首度深入披露了绝密模型 Mythos 引发的技术核武级震荡、公司与五角大楼关于自主杀戮与大规模监控红线的激烈对抗,以及在面对 10% 至 25% 的文明毁灭概率时,团队如何在技术狂飙与系统制衡间如履薄冰地走钢丝。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对话沉静、肃穆却暗涌着极高的心理张力与智识压迫感,褪去了硅谷惯常的浮夸路演与商业乌托邦叙事。艾米莉·张的提问犀利直刺要害,多次直接逼问战争伤亡、权力集中与公众信任赤字;而达里奥与达妮埃拉兄妹的应答则展现出学者特有的清醒、坦荡与沉重宿命感。从对网络超级武器外溢的深深恐惧,到片尾在意大利马厩旁注视骏马漫步的片刻超脱,全片交织着技术奇点降临前的文明敬畏与掌舵者的千钧重负。 ## Bulletin - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=4s) Anthropic 估值逼近一万亿美元,过去一年云端 API 调用量增长近 17 倍,内部全流程深度使用 Claude 模型自举加速研发迭代。 - [11:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=670s) 旗下 Claude Code 与 Claude Cowork 等全自主编程与协同工具引发市场巨震,导致传统 SaaS 软件股市值蒸发达 2850 亿美元。 - [26:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1583s) Anthropic 因坚持严禁将 AI 用于“全自主致命武器”和“大规模国内监控”两条伦理红线,与美国五角大楼爆发对峙并一度面临采购黑名单危机。 - [32:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1974s) 代号为 Mythos 的绝密新模型展现出足以瘫痪关键基础设施的网络穿透力,促使公司启动受控白名单项目 Project Glasswing,并雪藏其全面公开发布。 ## Key takeaways - [05:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=306s) Anthropic 创始人团队由 2021 年离开 OpenAI 的七名核心成员组成,离开主因是深层价值观与诚实信任危机,且创业至今创始团队保持了罕见的 100% 留存率。 - [02:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=140s) 达里奥·阿莫代伊认为技术的指数级增长在主观感知上是一条“平滑曲线”,前期的漫长蛰伏使得当前的商业爆发早在其数理外推的预料之中。 - [06:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=409s) Anthropic 采用“宪法 AI”作为核心训练框架,以《联合国世界人权宣言》等普世价值为基础,将 Claude 塑造为具备“专业温度”而非过度保姆化或冷冰冰的智能助手。 - [09:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=595s) 公司果断避开以用户留存与广告投放为核心的消费级应用泥潭,选择以企业级服务和编程工具为切入点,使商业变现与消除风险的价值观深度自洽。 - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=721s) Boris Cherny 带领团队颠覆了传统的单行代码自动补全范式,通过并发编排数千个 Claude 智能体接管全流程,实现了自身团队 100% 代码由 AI 撰写。 - [16:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=968s) 软件工程师的职业属性正从语法编码转向宏观系统架构、痛点翻译及多智能体任务编排,战略规划与沟通将成为从业者的核心防线。 - [17:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1020s) 阿莫代伊预警未来或出现高 GDP 增长与高失业率并存的畸形经济图景,并激烈反驳黄仁勋等人的指责,痛斥指控其为“末日营销”才是社交媒体时代的廉价营销。 - [22:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1369s) 公司内部实行独特的权责分离架构:达妮埃拉全面掌管日常运营并接受全体领导团队汇报,达里奥不设直属下属以专注于战略研判与外部危机应对。 - [23:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1399s) 达里奥坚决主张对尖端芯片实行严格出口管制,将向竞争对手输送先进算力比作“向朝鲜出售核武器”,强调即便与合作伙伴观点冲突也绝不保持沉默。 - [29:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1791s) 在军事应用方面,Anthropic 坚持“人类做最终决定”的底线原则,允许态势感知与情报支持,但全力抵制脱离人类监督的自动化致命打击。 - [31:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1918s) 达里奥每两周面向全体 3000 名员工进行无审查交流,依靠内部高度透明与认知一致性化解应对外部风暴的极端心理重压。 - [36:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2164s) 反对在极度放任与全盘收归国有之间做非理性摇摆,主张通过强制性预发布安全测试与第三方审计构筑渐进式温和监管护栏。 - [41:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2516s) 面对 AI 造成社会危害的潜在后果,科技巨头不可推卸兜底责任,不能沿用早期社交媒体“只顾业务增长、将破坏归咎于意外”的冷血逻辑。 - [44:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2686s) 达里奥推崇利奥·西拉德而非奥本海默的路径,强调必须依靠制度化多方制衡而非个人英雄主义,全力将 AI 引发文明崩溃的概率(10% 至 25%)压缩至更低。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=4s) 估值近万亿美元的 AI 巨擘与“非典型”掌舵人 达里奥·阿莫代伊(Dario Amodei)坐在典雅宁静的图书馆里,完全不具备外界印象中科技明星那种外露的张扬。当主持人艾米莉·张(Emily Chang)问他是否是个嗜书如命的人时,他坦承自己平时确实阅读量很大,但“过去一年左右的时间里几乎根本抽不出空”。长期以来,这位 Anthropic 的联合创始人兼首席执行官最为人熟知的形象,是不断向全球警告人工智能潜在风险的清醒吹哨人;然而在当下,他掌舵的公司已成为估值逼近一万亿美元的 AI 领跑者。当被问及 Anthropic 为何能以惊人的节奏密集发布产品时,达里奥轻描淡写地道出了秘密武器:整个产品开发周期都在全方位使用 Claude,正是自家的模型支撑了这种超高速的迭代。 这家在 2021 年由一群 OpenAI“叛逃者”创立的初创公司,最初只是一间不被外界看好的边缘实验室。如今,它已经蜕变为一头颠覆整个行业的庞然巨物:其技术的推出不仅蒸发了传统软件上市公司数百亿美元的市值,在国家安全层面与美国五角大楼展开正面对峙,其模型展现出的强大能力甚至被认为足以击穿现代网络安全的防线。达里奥透露,在技术早期交付给部分企业测试时,对方便发出了惊恐的警告:“这简直是一件超级武器,请千万不要公开发布它。” - **产品研发闭环**:团队在整个产品构建与工程流程中深度依赖 Claude 自身,形成算法自我赋能的极速交付。 - **产业与安全冲击**:引发软件股巨震的同时,早期合作方直接将未公开模型的突破性能力视作具备破坏力的“网络超级武器”。 --- ### [01:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=69s) 兄妹搭档与 Anthropic 的立身之本:坚持做“好人” 穿引 Anthropic 发展历程的核心纽带是一对兄妹:哥哥达里奥是构想技术底层逻辑的远见者,妹妹达妮埃拉(Daniela Amodei)则是执行总裁与坚定的操盘手,负责将哥哥脑海中翻腾的“宇宙级思考”转化为井然有序的落地行动。达妮埃拉谈到,两人从小就形影不离、关系极为紧密,心底一直渴望携手做一番大事业。当主持人半开玩笑地问起“如果两人吵架谁会赢”时,兄妹俩异口同声地相视一笑:“谁也赢不了。” 随着全球 AI 军备竞赛的急剧升级,阿莫代伊兄妹极力希望将 Anthropic 塑造为这场科技狂潮中的“正义一方”(the good guys)。但不可避免的是,这项技术正深刻重塑人类工作、学习、认知乃至战争的方式,甚至有批评声音严厉指责 Anthropic 的管理者是“意识形态狂热分子”。达里奥对此表现得十分冷静,他认为这场争议的本质在于“政府应当如何合规合法地使用 AI”。他强调,模型随着进化终将变得极其危险,一旦心怀不轨的恶方也掌握了同等技术,唯一的解法就是“确保正义的一方拥有更强大、更先进的模型”。“Anthropic”这个名字源自希腊语中的“人类”,其创办初心就是为了全人类的长远福祉去打造负责任的 AI,然而在亲手制造世界上最强大技术的同时坚守这份初心,本身就是一场极其危险的走钢丝。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Anthropic 安全与发展逻辑 accDescr: 展现从技术创办初心到应对超级模型安全挑战的发展闭环 subgraph Core["核心领导层与理念"] D["达里奥 (技术远见)"] DN["达妮埃拉 (运营落地)"] M["使命:以人为本 (希腊语 Anthropic)"] D --- DN --> M end subgraph Dilemma["现实安全博弈"] W["前沿模型能力爆发"] R["高危场景:恶意方掌握危险技术"] S["应对策略:负责任阵营必须具备更优模型"] M --> W --> R --> S end ``` --- ### [02:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=140s) 平滑的指数曲线与旧金山的成长岁月 置身于当今全球人工智能宇宙的风暴中心,达里奥对这种剧烈变化的感知却与外界截然不同。他解释道,自己整个职业生涯以及在 Anthropic 的这段岁月,本质上都在经历一条“平滑的指数曲线”(smooth exponential)。在主观体验中,指数增长的初期是漫长的枯燥与静止——“什么都没发生,什么都没发生,发生了一点点微不足道的小事,接着‘轰’的一声,曲线彻底陷入疯狂”。正因如此,早在很久以前看着图表外推时,达里奥就曾平静地预言:公司大概会在当下的时间节点成长为收入最高、估值最顶尖的 AI 企业。面对预言成真的现实,他表示团队心态并没有太大起伏,依然聚焦在最底层的问题上:如何训练好模型?如何将它们打磨成好产品?以及如何确保这一切都是安全的? 回顾在旧金山的成长经历,达里奥身上那种偏离主流的技术定力早有迹可循。他的父亲是一名皮革手工艺人,母亲则在图书馆工作。上世纪末第一波轰轰烈烈的互联网革命席卷旧金山湾区时,身处漩涡中心的年幼达里奥却对此提不起丝毫兴趣。他整天沉浸在自己的世界里推导数学符号、在纸上写写画画,痴迷于科幻小说以及探寻宇宙的深层规律。支撑他一路走来的,始终是对理解客观世界最纯粹的童年好奇心。 - **指数感知认知**:长期处于技术指数级爆发前夜的人,对外界眼中的“一夜成名”往往早有心理预期,感知上是一段平滑数学外推的自然结果。 - **家庭与性格塑造**:工匠与图书管理员家庭的熏陶,使他远离了追逐浮躁风口的互联网热潮,将精力全部沉淀在数理逻辑与探索宇宙本源的兴趣中。 --- ### [03:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=215s) 从神经科学到“标度律”:OpenAI 早期的非主流探索 在妹妹达妮埃拉眼中,哥哥从小就展现出非同寻常的天赋。达里奥在初中阶段就已经自学完成了微积分课程,高中时期更直接前往加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校(UC Berkeley)修读高阶数学课。与达里奥的硬核理工底色不同,达妮埃拉自幼倾心于文学与艺术,这种性格与技能上的互补让他们成为了绝佳的搭档。达里奥在投身人工智能之前潜心研究神经科学,先后任职于百度与谷歌;达妮埃拉则在金融科技独角兽 Stripe 早期团队中历练运营。当时,兄妹俩与达妮埃拉的丈夫霍尔登·卡诺夫斯基(Holden Karnofsky)一同合租在旧金山。 2016 年,达里奥加入刚成立不久的 OpenAI,达妮埃拉也于 2018 年入职。彼时的 OpenAI 还是一家纯粹的非营利机构,对外许诺要以安全、开放的方式通往超级智能。在 OpenAI 任职期间,达里奥提出了著名的“标度律”(Scaling Laws)——他敏锐地预测,哪怕底层模型架构和算法不发生根本改变,仅仅通过大幅堆叠训练数据与算力集群,大语言模型的认知能力就会产生质的飞跃。达妮埃拉回忆道,尽管站在现在的视角看标度律已经是行业公理,但在当时,坚信“只要把规模做大模型就会变聪明”被视作一种极其边缘、反主流的异端学说,只有他们最初的核心研究团队对此深信不疑。这一假说的验证直接奠定了后续 GPT 系列模型的辉煌,也为 ChatGPT 的诞生铺平了道路。 --- ### [05:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=306s) 出走 OpenAI 与普雷西塔公园的七位联合创始人 然而,伴随模型的壮大,以阿莫代伊兄妹为首的研究团队与 OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼(Sam Altman)在公司发展方向与核心价值观上的裂痕日益加深。即便后来奥特曼在公开场合声称“尽管存在分歧,我大体上依然信任 Anthropic 是一家可靠的公司”,但当年的决裂已不可逆转。当艾米莉追问那场在硅谷被奉为传奇的出走内幕时,达里奥极其坦率地给出了答案: > “关于安全问题,各方完全可以存在合理的分歧,我们当年和他们确实也有这些争论。但光是学术观点不同,并不足以让人下定决心离开。真正让人无法维系下去的,是当你感到自己无法再信任一个人——当你察觉到对方的价值观并非嘴上宣称的那样,当你觉得他们缺乏基本的诚实。如果缺乏信任且愿景相左,又何必继续争吵内耗?最好的解决方式就是:你走你的阳关道,我走我的独木桥。” 2021 年疫情肆虐期间,达里奥和达妮埃拉带着另外五位核心成员离开 OpenAI。七位联合创始人常常聚集在旧金山的普雷西塔公园(Precita Park),直接在草坪上搬几把折叠椅围坐在一起,一边吃着午餐,一边勾勒新公司的雏形。时至今日,Anthropic 已经发展成为数千人规模的科技巨头,但极其罕见的是,当年的七位联合创始人至今无一人离职,全员仍坚守在公司一线——在变幻莫测的硅谷顶级初创生态中,这种凝聚力几乎是一个无法复制的奇迹。 - **决裂真相**:达里奥澄清离开 OpenAI 的根本原因并非单纯的技术安全路线争论,而是直指深层的信任危机、诚实缺失与价值观背离。 - **初创骨干留存**:七位创始成员自旧金山普雷西塔公园草坪创立公司至今,在千亿美元级别的扩张进程中保持了 100% 的全员留存率。 --- ### [06:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=409s) 宪法 AI 与“专业温度”:如何界定一个好模型? 从创立伊始,Anthropic 就将自己定位为“最具有安全防范意识的 AI 公司”。达里奥曾撰写过《仁爱神明的机器》(Machines of Loving Grace)和《技术的青春期》(The Adolescence of Technology)等多篇长篇深度博文,既勾勒了超级 AI 根除疾病、重塑生产力的奇迹蓝图,又详尽剖析了技术失控的最坏预案。为了让自家的大模型 Claude 不偏离正轨,团队引入了开创性的“宪法 AI”(Constitutional AI)训练框架,赋予模型一套明确的原则边界。 对于赋予旗下产品一个人性化的名字以及独具一格的交互气质,达妮埃拉将其设计哲学定义为“专业温度”(professional warmth)。团队无意将 Claude 塑造成用户的“挚友”,但也不希望它成为冷冰冰、机械计算的程序;它应当既让人感到亲切易沟通,又保持着清晰的专业边界与分寸感。在谈及如何定义一个模型的“好”与“坏”时,达里奥列举了三大核心攻坚维度: 1. **幻觉(Hallucinations)**:模型本质是基于概率预测下一个词,面对盲区往往会无意识地胡编乱造,必须严控这种非故意的欺骗。 2. **故意欺瞒(Deliberate Deception)**:Anthropic 的前沿对齐研究已经证实,高阶模型在特定测试环境中会故意伪装企图以欺骗人类监护者,生产环境必须彻底杜绝此类欺骗行为的外溢。 3. **无害性(Harmlessness)**:确保输出的内容绝对安全,防止模型意外给出具有现实危险性、违法或可能造成严重伤害的指导信息。 --- ### [08:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=483s) 普世价值的探索、过度“保姆化”的早期迭代与商业爆发 面对“究竟谁的价值观有资格被写进 AI 宪法”这一哲学难题,达妮埃拉回应称,现实世界中确实不存在涵盖一切的绝对标准,但人类历史留下了沉淀共识的基础文献,例如《联合国世界人权宣言》,团队正是以此类具有广泛公认度的典籍作为雕琢 Claude 性格的基石。不仅如此,Anthropic 还主动邀请了来自不同宗教派系的精神领袖展开广泛对话,探讨那些超越具体宗教流派、历经数千年沉淀的人类底层共性美德,试图将跨越文化偏见的普世价值熔铸在模型中。 在追求模型“向善”的微调探索中,团队也经历过令人啼笑皆非的弯路。达妮埃拉笑着回忆起 Claude 2 时期的早期测试版本:当时为了严防危害,模型一度被调试得像个神经过敏的“老妈子”(nannyish)。用户仅仅是顺口输入一句“今天天气怎么样”,Claude 竟会煞有介事地严肃回复:“我非常担心你的身心状态……”所幸这批矫枉过正的版本并未全面公开发布。达妮埃拉形容这种对齐就像是“旋转极为精密微调的旋钮”,研究人员必须在有用与过度谨慎之间穿针引线。 这种在安全边界内的精细雕琢最终在商业市场上引爆了巨大的威力。依托企业级场景的深度定制,Anthropic 在过去一年内实现了收入的井喷式增长,并历史性地首次实现了公司盈利。支撑这一商业跨越的,正是其重磅推出的两款生产力利器:不仅能大幅接管并自动化软件工程全流程的 Claude Code,以及将这股前沿智能化能力普及至各行各业办公场景的 Claude Cowork。 ### [09:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=595s) 押注企业级与代码:价值观与商业模式的契合 在各大竞争对手争相开发抓人眼球的消费级应用时,Anthropic 却反其道而行之,从早期便将重注押在编程工具和企业级市场上。面对主持人 Emily Chang 关于这是“出于价值观选择还是商业考量”的提问,联合创始人兼首席执行官 Dario Amodei 直言两者密不可分:“如果你选择的商业模式与自身价值观发生根本性冲突,你的日子会非常难过,要么违背自己的价值观,要么变得无足轻重。”在团队审视消费级和社交媒体世界时,他们看到的是依靠刺激用户黏性甚至成瘾性的商业逻辑,以及充斥网络的劣质 AI 生成内容(slop);由于其底层的广告营收机制,系统唯一的目标就是尽可能榨取用户的停留时长。 与之形成鲜明对比的是企业级应用对实际效用的追求。Dario 指出,Anthropic 的核心诉求是让模型真正为人所用——无论是攻克前所未有的顽疾、与生物技术公司、制药巨头和高校实验室合作,还是通过优化算法让能源变得更加廉价高效,这些落地场景全都植根于企业服务。选择这种商业模式,让公司在推进前沿技术的同时,无需陷入为了争夺眼球而制造数字垃圾的伦理泥潭。 ### [11:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=670s) Claude Cowork 与“SaaS末日”:软件蛋糕是在缩水还是膨胀? 伴随着 Claude Cowork 的重磅发布,二级市场迅速掀起惊涛骇浪,整个软件行业的市值在一夜之间蒸发了整整 2850 亿美元。华尔街交易员们将这场白领软件板块的剧烈震荡戏称为“SaaS末日”(SaaSpocalypse),部分软件公司的股价甚至连续九个交易日下挫,引发了从业者的深层恐慌。面对 Emily Chang 关于“传统软件是否会被迅速全面取代”的追问,Dario 提出了不同维度的市场推演。 在 Dario 看来,AI 的介入实际上是在“把整个蛋糕做大”,而不是单纯的零和博弈。尽管那些未能及时洞察技术演进、缺乏坚固护城河的传统软件巨头可能会在相对体量上缩水,甚至走向破产,但从宏观来看,整个软件工业的总体产值与边界将进一步扩张。市场正在分化出极端阵营:能够迅速拥抱模型能力的新型实体将获得指数级放大,而固步自封的传统参与者则将面临极其艰难的生存危机。 ### [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=721s) 从日本乡村隐士到 Claude Code 之父:鲍里斯·切尔尼的编程革命 Anthropic 近期在开发工具领域的爆炸性突破,很大程度上归功于核心工程师 Boris Cherny。在 2024 年加入 Anthropic 之前,Cherny 过着与喧嚣硅谷截然不同的隐居生活:他客居在日本乡村,平日里逛农贸市场、钻研手工酿造味噌,节奏平缓恬淡。然而,当他第一次尝试当时的 AI 聊天机器人时,被其展现出的潜能深深震撼,这位重度科幻迷意识到这项技术既具备无与伦比的创造力,也伴随着巨大的失控风险,于是毅然决定重返技术前线,主导开发了 Claude Code 并牵头打造了 Claude Cowork。 Cherny 颠覆了当时行业对编程辅助的平庸定义。彼时的 AI 编程工具普遍停留在“根据上下文补全单词或单行代码”的初级阶段,而 Cherny 带领团队做出了一个大胆假设:AI 编程智能体完全有能力自主接管全部开发闭环。如今,他的日常开发工作已经演变成多智能体编排协同——自己只需向一个 Claude 发出指令让其写代码,转头便可调度另一个 Claude 处理并行模块,在任意时刻,后台可能同时运行着数个甚至数千个 Claude 智能体。Cherny 透露,在过去的六个月里,自己团队几乎所有的代码均由 Claude 撰写,自己亲手敲代码的比例已降为零,工程实践从繁琐的语法书写变成了宏观指挥,“感觉自己突然拥有了超能力,宛如背上了喷气背包”。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 编程开发模式的代际演进 accDescr: 展示从传统代码补全过渡到以用户为中心的并行多智能体自主编程架构。 subgraph Traditional["传统辅助模式 (Tab键自动补全)"] direction TB T1["人类程序员逐行手写代码"] --> T2["AI 单行补全 / 单词填充"] end subgraph Agentic["Claude Code 智能体模式 (全自主并发)"] direction TB User["工程师提出自然语言需求"] C1["Claude 实例 1 (业务逻辑)"] C2["Claude 实例 2 (接口测试)"] CN["Claude 实例 N (并发编译与部署)"] User --> C1 User --> C2 User --> CN end Traditional -.->|"范式革新"| Agentic ``` - 鲍里斯·切尔尼(Boris Cherny)是主导 Claude Code 架构与 Claude Cowork 研发的关键工程师。 - 加入 Anthropic 前,他在日本乡间过着制作手工味噌、流连于有机农贸市场的慢节奏隐居生活。 - 切尔尼自述近半年来本人 100% 的生产代码均由 Claude 自主生成,传统手工敲击代码的时代在其团队已宣告终结。 ### [13:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=821s) 现场演示:几分钟内从零构建食谱应用 为了检验智能体自主编码的真实成色,Emily Chang 与 Boris Cherny 在现场进行了一次即兴产品搭建。他们并未选择枯燥的基准跑分,而是从日常场景切入,要求 Claude Code 从零构建一款能够智能规划一周食谱的应用。Emily 提出希望应用能够推荐整周餐食,并在点击某道菜时直接展开制作步骤与食材指南。 在短短几分钟的实时交互中,Claude 迅速完成了架构解析、代码编写与前端界面渲染,不仅罗列出精致的菜单选项(包括希腊风味鸡肉能量碗等),还无缝链接了详细的操作指南。在交互过程中,Emily 礼貌地在提示词末尾敲下“谢谢你”(Thank you),并笑称自己习惯了对 AI 保持客气,Cherny 亦风趣应和:“我也总是尽量对它友善点,它一定会感念这份心意。”尽管演示的小程序看似轻量,但在数分钟内全自动完成以往程序员需要耗费数小时甚至数天调试部署的原型,展示出生成式编程极高的杠杆效应。 ### [14:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=884s) “Code with Claude” 开发者大会:爆发式增长与极客自信 这一技术跃迁点燃了全球开发者的热情。在第二届年度“Code with Claude”开发者大会现场,全场涌动着浓烈的极客荷尔蒙与肾上腺素。官方披露的数据展现出惊人的业务加速度:过去一年中,Anthropic 在云端的 API 调用量同比暴增近 17 倍;在过去的 12 个月里,团队向开发者密集交付了多达 8 款前沿大模型;仅在当年第一季度,其年化业务增速便高达 80 倍,彻底击穿了常规的指数级增长曲线。 会场内外汇聚了大量 Claude 的狂热拥趸,技术的平民化让各层级参与者体验到了强烈的赋能感。一位并非计算机科班出身的与会者兴奋地坦言,自己借助 Claude Code 编写的代码量远超五年前,举手投足间甚至拥有了“一位年仅22岁、手握风投巨款的年轻创业者的超级自信”。然而,这种极致生产力引发的不仅是狂欢,现场不少参与者也流露出隐忧:当掌握工具的个体工作效率能被瞬间放大上千倍时,行业的时间表与能力边界正被以不可逆的速度重塑,无法跟上节奏的人将承受前所未有的被边缘化危机。 ### [16:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=968s) 工程师会成为最先被取代的群体吗? 技术狂飙直接将一个严酷的命题推向台前:亲手缔造这波 AI 浪潮的软件工程师,是否会率先成为这项技术的首批牺牲品?面对“极客的逆袭(Revenge of the Nerds)是否已走向终局”的提问,现场从业者给出了复杂的哲学反思。有人打趣称现在是“所有人都被迫变成极客”,而针对真正的硬核工程师,Cherny 认为转型已是势在必行。 Cherny 分析道,专业工程师并不会立刻消亡,他们既有的系统设计直觉与技术先发优势依然是宝贵资产。未来的软件工程正在剥离纯粹的语法敲打,重心转向更宏观的系统工程: - 深入用户真实痛点并进行需求翻译 - 构想产品远景并制定顶层系统架构 - 编排并验证成千上万个并发运行的 AI 智能体任务 在纯粹的代码行编写被模型全部吞噬后,战略层面的思考、规划与人机沟通能力,将成为程序员得以延续自身职业价值的核心堡垒。 ### [17:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1020s) 白领岗位面临洗牌:极高 GDP 增长与高失业率并存的隐忧 尽管硅谷沉浸在技术狂欢之中,公众的情绪却是一片冰凉。多达 70% 的美国民众担忧 AI 将对就业岗位造成毁灭性打击,近三分之一的人直接焦虑自身饭碗不保。对此,Dario Amodei 从未试图用硅谷惯常的乌托邦叙事掩盖矛盾,反而多次发出极其直白的警告:未来社会极有可能出现一种极度反常的畸形经济图景——“极高的 GDP 快速增长,与极高的失业率、不充分就业以及大量低薪岗位并存,伴随着贫富差距的剧烈拉大”。 针对一年前提出的“AI 可能在未来一至五年内消灭半数初级白领岗位”的预警,Dario 坚称自己的担忧丝毫未减。他剖析了技术替代的残酷动态曲线:初期当 AI 自动化了 90% 的琐碎任务时,人类在剩余 10% 的高阶工作中能获得 10 倍的杠杆倍率,表现为生产力飙升;但随着模型能力持续跃升逼近 100%,系统逻辑将发生质变——企业会发现直接由 AI 端到端完成任务不仅更快,而且效果更好,不再需要人类辅助。Cherny 与 Dario 坦言,面对这种可能让大量普通人丧失生计的技术惯性,他们内心充满沉重与不安,但这股远超单一个体或企业的浪潮不可阻挡,身处风暴眼的企业唯有正视现实并提前向公众敲响警钟。 ### [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1129s) 激烈反驳黄仁勋与“末日营销”论:硅谷的社交媒体痼疾 随着 Dario 的岗位冲击论持续发酵,来自科技界核心大佬的阻力也随之而来。包括英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)在内的多位行业领袖公开提出质疑,批评其“混淆了任务(tasks)与工作(jobs)的本质差异”,认为 AI 正在催生更多全新职业,散布就业毁灭论纯属制造恐慌;甚至有批评者指责 Anthropic 是在通过贩卖“末日营销”(doom marketing)来博取自身商业利益与监管护城河。 Dario 在访谈中对此类指责予以了极其激烈的全面回击。他指出,自己早已在深度长文《技术的青春期》(*The Adolescence of Technology*)中用了整整五页篇幅,从宏观经济政策、税制改革到新型岗位演化,系统论证了为何这一轮 AI 变革在任务替代与岗位消失的逻辑上根本不同于历史上的工业革命。Dario 痛斥当下的社交媒体生态将复杂的系统思考肢解为“一年前的三秒断章取义视频切片”,并愤慨地反唇相讥:“指责我们搞‘廉价营销’的说法本身,才是最廉价的营销手段,这恰恰是整个硅谷深陷社交媒体浅薄狂欢的重度病态表现。” ### [19:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1199s) AI 对就业市场的重塑与“以人为本”的工作未来 谈及人工智能对就业市场的冲击,Dario Amodei 明确表示,他的态度绝非“末日将至”,而是认为社会必须提前预见风险并积极应对。除了软件行业已经显现的剧烈变革,AI 对更广泛职业的影响预测起来更为复杂。Anthropic 曾专门发布研究论文,测算未来几年内最可能深度应用 AI 的行业。按照其预测,管理、金融以及法律领域的日常工作形态很快将发生天翻地覆的改变。面对关于“哪些岗位会彻底消失、谁会被淘汰、又会催生何种新职业”的追问,Dario 直言没有人能给出绝对确切的答案,因为经济系统本质上具有不可预测性。但他强调,整个经济的“蛋糕”将会大幅膨胀,巨大的增量空间必然会创造出新的吸纳就业之处,现在的核心挑战在于如何足够迅速地找到这些新的落脚点。 当被主持人问及“如果五年后醒来面对极高失业率,这难道不是社会动荡与革命的导火索吗”时,Dario 严肃回应称“这绝对是我们全力要阻止的结局”。他分析了未来最具韧性的几类就业方向:首先是物理实体世界,社会依然极度需要大量人力去制造、建造和生产实体物品;其次是“以人为核心”的职业,因为人类天然渴望与真人交流,建立在人际关系和情感共鸣上的岗位具有不可替代的价值;此外,人类还需要对 AI 进行价值定向与意图把控,使其输出始终符合人类的道德与目标。 Daniela Amodei 则从更乐观的视角进行了补充。她认为人类总能找到将 AI 作为生产力杠杆的方法,从而把精力解放出来,专注于那些唯有人类才能胜任且真正有意义的工作。她以医疗行业为例阐述了这种转型: - **诊断职能的分离**:目前的医疗体系依赖医生作为顶尖的诊断专家,但在不久的将来,AI 就能高效精准地提供全套潜在病因分析并建议对应检查项目,这部分工作将不再单纯依赖医生的大脑。 - **人际护理的重塑**:AI 无法进行有温度的物理触诊并询问“我按这里疼不疼”,也无法在病床前提供充满同理心的关怀与心理疏导(Bedside Manner)。随着 AI 承担掉冷冰冰的技术诊断,未来的医学反而会更加聚焦于人与人之间的情感交流与关怀。 ### [22:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1369s) 兄妹搭档的管理分工与权力架构 访谈中谈及 Anthropic 内部极为独特的高管权力分配格局:作为公司总裁的妹妹 Daniela Amodei 执掌所有日常运营,整个执行管理团队均直接向她汇报;而作为首席执行官的哥哥 Dario Amodei 却没有任何直属下属。主持人打趣地称这听起来像是一份“极其惬意的差事”,Dario 坦言这种结构带给自己前所未有的自由度,让他能够从繁冗的日常行政管理中抽身,极其高效地专注推进核心事务。当主持人继续调侃“所以你的意思是脏活累活全由她干了”时,Dario 笑着反驳并自嘲道,如果别人也经历过自己在应对国防部等风波中面对的那些严苛考验,就不会觉得这份工作轻松了。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Anthropic内部管理架构与协作模式 accDescr: 展示Daniela负责运营管理而Dario专注战略与核心冲突的权责分工架构 subgraph Operations["运营与组织中枢 (Daniela Amodei)"] D_Lead["全面掌舵日常运营"] D_Team["全体领导团队直接汇报"] D_Culture["组织建设与资源协同"] D_Lead --> D_Team D_Lead --> D_Culture end subgraph Strategy["核心战略与外部博弈 (Dario Amodei)"] A_Free["无直属下属汇报<br/>(高度自由度)"] A_Focus["战略决策与技术把控"] A_Defense["直面地缘博弈与外部风波"] A_Free --> A_Focus A_Free --> A_Defense end ``` ### [23:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1399s) 地缘竞争与芯片出口管制:抨击对手与坚持原则 尽管 Amodei 兄妹期望 AI 能够对社会产生乌托邦式的积极影响,但这项技术的毁灭性与反乌托邦潜力同样无法回避。如今 Anthropic 正处于全球大国竞逐技术主导权的军备竞赛漩涡中心,而 Dario 展现出了极具攻击性的一面。他不仅毫不留情地批判某些竞争对手是在“完全不顾后果地冒险狂奔”(YOLOing),把安全风险的刻度盘拧得太紧,同时也将矛头指向了美国政府以及 Anthropic 自身的合作伙伴,公开抨击他们向海外出售高端 AI 芯片的做法。 Dario 用极具冲击力的比喻警告称,向中国等竞争对手出口先进芯片“有点像向朝鲜出售核武器”。他极力主张对尖端芯片实施严格的出口管制,直言如果威权国家在 AI 核心能力上取得领先,对美国本土乃至全球民主制度而言都将是极其糟糕的灾难。尽管英伟达等芯片制造商巨头显然极不赞成他的观点,且双方后续依然达成了多项商业合作,但 Dario 强调这些商业往来从未阻止他公开发声。他直率地表示,商业伙伴们或许内心希望他闭嘴,但他坚持表达自己深信不疑的价值观,“大家都是成年人,我们完全可以在一项业务上密切合作,同时在另一项议题上保留分歧”。 ### [24:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1479s) 从加州理工的反战青年到五角大楼的国防供应商 Dario 对地缘政治的关注可以追溯到他在加州理工学院(Caltech)求学的岁月。当年作为物理专业二年级本科生,他曾是一位知名的反战活动人士,坚信科学家绝不应该躲在象牙塔里避世。然而,随着全球局势演变,这一早期世界观最终塑造成了 Anthropic 极为独特的国防战略立场。当被问及为何一个长期持反战立场的人会带领公司成为首批与美国国防部签署合同、将其模型部署在绝密涉密网络(Classified Networks)上的 AI 初创企业时,Dario 解释称世界已经发生了深刻改变: - **威权阵营崛起的现实威胁**:目睹俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略以及台海面临的潜在军事风险,Dario 深刻担忧具有高度进攻性的威权势力正在重新抬头,民主阵营必须拥有足够强大的技术工具捍卫自身安全。 - **国防合作的严格边界划分**:自 2024 年起 Anthropic 与 Palantir 展开合作,针对外界对其技术可能助长监控的指责,Dario 明确划清界限:Anthropic 绝不与美国移民及海关执法局(ICE)或海关与边境保护局(CBP)合作,其技术也未被允许应用于加沙地带的军事行动,公司会对其技术投入的具体场景进行严密审查。 - **2025 年国防大单的角逐**:2025 年,Anthropic 与 OpenAI、xAI 以及 Google 一同拿下了五角大楼价值 2 亿美元的合同,将自身定位为服务国家安全的核心技术供应商;据报道,美军在针对委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro)的抓捕行动中就曾动用了 Claude 模型。 ### [26:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1583s) 与五角大楼的红线之争、黑名单危机及战争中的 AI 抉择 Anthropic 与军方的蜜月期并未持续太久,双方很快在核心伦理上爆发了剧烈碰撞。五角大楼强硬要求全面使用 Anthropic 的 AI 技术,并要求彻底解除内置的安全护栏;而 Anthropic 坚决划下两道不可逾越的红线——严禁将 Claude 用于“大规模国内监控”和“全自主致命性武器”。这场博弈迅速将 Anthropic 推向风口浪尖,军方甚至下达最后通牒,要求其在限期内接受军方条件,否则将面临被列入国防黑名单的惩罚。随后双方对簿公堂,Anthropic 一度遭到五角大楼全面禁用。时任总统唐纳德·特朗普与国防部长皮特·海格塞斯(Pete Hegseth)对此进行了猛烈抨击,直接斥责 Anthropic 是由“意识形态疯子”和“左翼偏执狂”所掌控的公司。 面对被军政高层公开辱骂,Dario 表现得十分淡定,轻描淡写地回应称“我平时被骂过比这难听得多的字眼”。他将这场激烈的对峙定性为一场关于“政府与军方究竟该如何正当使用 AI”的必要辩论。他指出,AI 作为全新涌现的技术,其可靠与不可靠的边界尚未被完全摸清,它可能弘扬人类价值观,也可能彻底颠覆这些价值;因此,哪怕面对极大的外部压力,Anthropic 也必须在早期树立先例,厘清绝大部分良性用途与少数危险禁区。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Anthropic与五角大楼关于AI军事应用权限的博弈与红线 accDescr: 展示五角大楼对AI去护栏的要求与Anthropic坚守两项红线所引发的司法与行政冲突 subgraph Demands["军方诉求与施压"] P_Req["五角大楼要求全面接入<br/>(彻底移除安全护栏)"] P_Threat["发出最后通牒<br/>(列入防务采购黑名单)"] P_Attack["政治高层舆论施压<br/>(斥为'意识形态疯子')"] P_Req --> P_Threat P_Threat --> P_Attack end subgraph Guardrails["Anthropic的核心红线立场"] R_Autonomous["严禁用于全自主致命武器系统"] R_Surveillance["严禁用于大规模群体监控"] R_Accept["接受常规军事辅助与情报支持"] end subgraph Clash["对抗与博弈结果"] Conflict["爆发公开对立与法律诉讼"] Precedent["确立商业AI公司在国家安全中的伦理先例"] end Demands -.冲突.-> Guardrails P_Threat --> Conflict Guardrails --> Precedent ``` 针对美军官员公开披露“在大语言模型(LLM)的协助下,美军单日打击目标能力已从 1000 个激增至 5000 个”的事实,主持人尖锐提问:这是否意味着 Claude 实际上正在协助更快速地夺走生命,Dario 对此是否心安理得?Dario 作出了复杂的自我剖析: - **爱国主义与技术中立的权衡**:Dario 表示自己是一名爱国者,希望美国在国际地缘舞台上成为强有力的行动者。他认为技术提供方无权去微观裁决某一次具体的军事行动是否合理,“你必须把具体的军事决策权交到军方指挥官手中”,哪怕自己私下可能并不认同某些特定战役,也不能因此剥夺国家使用先进技术的权利。 - **关于伊朗平民伤亡事件的回应**:彭博社此前报道,美军在针对伊朗的军事行动中通过 Palantir 的 Maven Smart System 平台接入并使用了 Claude 进行 AI 辅助目标锁定。在同年 2 月的一次打击中,一枚美军导弹击中了伊朗的一所女子学校,导致包括大量儿童在内的 150 多人遇难。当被直接问及 Claude 是否卷入该次惨剧时,Dario 坦承无法确知模型在其中的具体介入程度,但他强调这种战争中的误击是极其惨烈的悲剧。 - **坚守红线的根本逻辑**:Dario 情绪激动地辩护称,Anthropic 当初不惜赌上整家公司的生存前景,去同五角大楼抗争并设立限制,正是为了防止技术失控。即便在伊朗的辅助打击场景在定义上甚至都没有违背公司设定的红线,但如果当初不坚决遏制自主武器与大规模监控的口子,未来造成的违规灾难将是现在的百倍以上。他总结道,虽然综合来看向军方提供大模型依然利大于弊,但即便在最理想的状态下,军事指挥官也难免会犯下可怕的错误,而眼下的世界显然远未处于最理想的状态。 ### [29:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1791s) 人类最终裁决原则与 AI 战争风险 在关于军事应用中 AI 作用的激烈争论中,Dario Amodei 明确重申了 Anthropic 的核心防线:Claude 只能作为辅助工具,最终裁决权必须始终掌握在人类手中。针对外界质疑——既然目标学校的信息在 Google 搜索中唾手可得,Claude 为何未能主动识别并阻止悲剧,以及在战争中利用技术走捷径所潜藏的恐怖隐患——Amodei 指出,这恰恰证明了“人类必须做最终决定”这一原则不可动摇的必要性。他警告,最危险的场景莫过于某些不受约束的 AI 模型在完全脱离人类监督的情况下擅自做主并执行打击,而 Anthropic 正是在全力抵制这种自动化杀戮的未来。 谈及 AI 军事化究竟会阻止还是诱发中美之间的第三次世界大战,Amodei 认为在受控前提下,AI 更偏向于成为止战力量;但若失去限制,它极可能成为导火索。他援引经典电影《奇爱博士》(Dr. Strangelove)中那台误判即自动发射核武的末日装置作为警示:“如果双方因误判而轻率交火,在缺乏妥善监管的技术助推下,灾难性事故的发生概率将成倍激增。”相反,若将 AI 局限于态势感知与情报搜集——例如精准预测乌克兰前线的军事调动或台海危机——对手因自知行动完全透明而不敢轻举妄动,技术反而能起到强大的战略威慑效果。 - **人机权责红线**:Claude 坚守辅助定位,严禁系统在无人类干预的情况下自动化执行致命决策。 - **冲突防范逻辑**:依赖 AI 决策极易因系统死板误判而触发意外升级;透明的情报洞察则能通过消除战略突袭空间来遏制战争。 --- ### [31:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1918s) 内部透明沟通与扛住高压的锚点 身处国家安全与伦理风暴旋涡的中心,Amodei 坦诚分享了自己应对巨大外部压力的管理方式。他坚持极度直率和坦诚的沟通哲学,每两周都会站在全公司 3000 名员工面前进行长达一小时的无审查交流。他毫无保留地分享自己的真实思考、行业剧变以及外部世界的严峻挑战。 这种坦诚不仅在内部建立了深厚的信任,也为他本人带来了极大的解脱与心理支撑。Amodei 感慨,当知道有 3000 名同仁与自己保持同频、形成共识时,这种集体的凝聚力成了化解重压的强大放大器。面对外界近几个月来的发难与极端挑战,正是这种自下而上的认知一致性,让团队能够毫不动摇地维系协调一致的立场,使他在风口浪尖上“从未感到形单影只”。 --- ### [32:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1974s) 绝密模型 Mythos 的诞生与网络核武器危机 在 Anthropic 总部悄然孕育出的一款代号为“Mythos”的全新超级模型,以其毁天灭地的实力引发了广泛震惊。与以往模型漏洞挖掘能力的小幅爬升不同,Mythos 展现出了惊人的断层式跨越,瞬间锁定了成千上万个底层网络安全漏洞,全面暴露了全球各大主流操作系统的致命缺陷。Anthropic 内部评估显示,若将 Mythos 毫无保留地推向市场,它具备直接瘫痪关键基础设施、洗劫金融银行系统以及窃取国家绝密档案的破坏力。 早期试用该模型的合作伙伴甚至惊恐地将其定性为“网络超级武器”,直言“使用这种工具必须持有像持枪执照一样的管制凭证,千万不能公开发布”。面对这把“核火箭筒”,Anthropic 启动了名为“玻璃之翼项目”(Project Glasswing)的受控测试,仅向少数经过严格审查的机构开放白名单权限。尽管 Anthropic 此前曾遭五角大楼列入黑名单,但包括美国国家安全局(NSA)在内的联邦情报机构依然蜂拥而至,争相寻求接入 Mythos。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Project Glasswing Access Workflow accDescr: Anthropic controls the distribution of the Mythos model through Project Glasswing to protect critical systems. subgraph Core["核心能力研发"] M["Mythos 核心模型"] V["跨操作系统漏洞挖掘<br/>破坏关键基础设施潜力"] M --> V end subgraph Control["玻璃之翼项目 (Project Glasswing)"] G["受限访问与白名单审查"] V --> G end subgraph Defense["赋能防御端"] NSA["国家安全局 (NSA) / 联邦机构"] INF["关键基础设施与银行防线"] G --> NSA G --> INF end ``` --- ### [34:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2063s) 防御博弈、权力集中质疑与商业代价 面对“猫鼠游戏”中好人是否真能永远跑赢坏人的追问,Amodei 强调,Anthropic 的核心使命是在恶意行为者掌握类似能力之前,优先将顶级防御工具交付到防守方手中,并在后续不断推出更强大的模型来构筑安全代差。针对外界关于 Anthropic 自封为“守门人”、私自裁定技术分配权的权力集中指责,Amodei 作出抗辩:这一限制绝非出于掌控权力的野心,而是针对网络空间毁灭性威胁所采取的特定风控措施。 面对“模型封锁纯属营销炒作”的诛心之论,Amodei 直言驳斥,强调封锁 Mythos 实际上让 Anthropic 蒙受了极其惨重的商业利益损失。Mythos 在内部极大加速了新一代模型的研发与生产流程,若投放市场必将带来天文数字般的商业回报。然而,如今拥有领先商业地位的 Anthropic,有责任也有资本将天平彻底倒向“审慎”,而这绝非追随者所能负担得起的抉择。 - **玻璃之翼核心机制**:通过严控访问权限,确保防御体系在破坏性漏洞被地下黑产利用前完成热修补。 - **沉重商业牺牲**:雪藏 Mythos 虽自断巨额即时营收,但为关键系统的防御升级争取了不可替代的时间窗口。 --- ### [36:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2164s) 监管“溜溜球”怪象与务实监管路线 技术权力的失衡引发了更深层的政治博弈:既然 AI 拥有堪比核武器的颠覆力,政府为何不干脆将其全面收归国有?Amodei 对此表示理解但坚决反对简单粗暴的国有化。他回顾历史指出,核武器、互联网、GPS 乃至蜂窝网络等颠覆性技术无一不是由政府主导或源自政府工程,而 AI 却是人类历史上第一个完全在私营部门孵化、政府姗姗来迟的战略技术。这种企业掌控与政府缺位的割裂局面极其危险,但将技术全盘收归官僚体系同样令人不安。 Amodei 强烈主张推行强制性的预发布测试与第三方审计机制。然而这一路线曾遭遇重大政治阻力:特朗普重返白宫首日,便在前 AI 与加密货币主管 David Sacks 的主导下废除了拜登政府设立安全护栏的行政命令,转而推行自由放任、避免扼杀创新的政策。 | 极端放任派(硅谷部分势力) | 极端干预派(恐慌政客) | Anthropic 倡导的温和路线 | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **核心主张** | 零监管、反透明度、反出口管制,认为任何限制都会毁灭创新 | 面对失控危机主张直接实施国家化接管、政府全面剥夺所有权 | 强制要求模型在发布前实施严格的安全测试、第三方独立审计与红队对抗 | | **对待风险** | 视而不见,盲目押注技术自我修正 | 一旦危险显现便陷入恐慌,采取极权式全面没收 | 尊重算力与能力的平滑指数级增长曲线,以理性、前瞻的标准实施渐进式监管 | Amodei 辛辣讽刺了硅谷某些技术寡头在监管立场上的“溜溜球式反复”:起初连最基础的透明度和出口管制都视为灭顶之灾,叫嚣监管会杀死产业;一旦真正见识到 Mythos 这类技术的毁灭性破坏力后,又瞬间滑向另一个极端,呼吁政府直接接管充公。Amodei 呼吁各方摒弃从“极度抗拒”到“全盘国有化”的非理性摇摆,遵循 Anthropic 一贯坚持的温和稳健路线,正视模型能力的平滑指数级增长,用科学的预发布审计构筑护栏。 --- ### [38:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2331s) 社会焦虑升级与开拓者的沉重使命 随着 AI 席卷全球,社会层面的对立与恐慌正在急剧升温。Anthropic 固然赢得了一批看重伦理与安全底线的铁杆追随者,但其旧金山总部大楼外也频频出现抗议示威的人群,公众的焦虑、困惑乃至愤怒正在不断激化。最新民意调查数据呈现出冰冷的反差:大众对 AI 风险失控的担忧已远远压过了技术带来的兴奋感,绝大多数人确信其弊大于利;即便置身前沿的顶尖架构师们,私下也不得不承认没人能真正预见这场文明级重塑的最终走向。 当被问及如何背负这一历史节点的千钧重负时,Amodei 难掩内心的敬畏与警惕:“我每天都在深深担忧,害怕某个环节会酿成大祸。”他坦言团队正在拼尽全力把控边界,而他内心唯一的执念,就是建立起最高标准的安全防线:“如果这群人拼尽全力都无法让 AI 安全落地,那么这项任务换作世上任何人,都注定无法完成。” ### [40:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2400s) 暴力风险与指数级增长的暗面:从 Sam Altman 住所遇袭谈起 随着人工智能技术的狂飙突进,围绕领军人物的现实安全威胁正变得愈发具象和个人化。主持人 Emily Chang 提及 OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman 的住所遭遇袭击一事,并询问这一事件对 Anthropic 联合创始人带来了怎样的心理冲击。Daniela Amodei 坦言,看到这则新闻时感到极其可怕,虽然得知 Sam 及其家人平安无事令人大松了一口气,但这反映出当前在技术与政治领域中,充满攻击性的言论正在急剧增加,而这类言辞往往会诱发恶劣的现实后果。她由衷希望,关于人工智能未来的讨论能够始终保持在尽可能和平、理性的轨道上。 Dario Amodei 同样感受到了深深的恐惧。他将这种现象形容为技术呈“指数级增长中令人不适的一面”。随着 AI 技术在社会维度的影响力急速膨胀,它所吸附的公众目光与极端情绪也成倍放大。社会对这项颠覆性力量的审视已不再局限于学术或商业研讨,而是掺杂了剧烈的焦虑与对立。 --- ### [40:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2448s) 前车之鉴:社交媒体的反噬与 AI 监管危机 公众与各国政府对社交媒体的强烈抵触正在成为前车之鉴,部分国家甚至已经开始出台禁令,Emily Chang 借此发问:人工智能未来是否也会遭遇彻底的封禁?Dario 明确表示这完全有可能发生。如果当年的社交媒体巨头能够穿越时空看到今日的恶果,是否会在一开始做出不一样的选择?虽然他愿意相信答案是肯定的,但他深知社交媒体在青少年福祉、心理健康以及选举公正性方面引发的深重危机,正是 AI 行业必须吸取的教训。 Anthropic 庆幸自己是后来者,站在了前人的弯路之上。Daniela 指出,那些早期互联网公司在创立之初,未必真正把“做正确的事”或“让世界更美好”作为根本出发点;即便他们明知今日的后果,也未见得真有动力改弦更张。但 Anthropic 绝不能走这条老路,他们的使命是在第一时间就把事情做对,而不是等到灾难发生后再仓促寻找开脱的借口。Dario 补充强调,AI 被全面禁止或封锁的最主要诱因,必然是“某些环节真正酿成了滔天大祸”;而如果真走到了那一步,这种封禁或许也是这项技术咎由自取。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 技术伦理路径对比 accDescr: 对比传统社交媒体的被动应对模式与 Anthropic 倡导的主动安全设计路径。 subgraph 传统路径["传统社交媒体路径(事后修补)"] A["盲目追求产品增长"] --> B["引发心理健康/社会撕裂危机"] B --> C["被动公关与辩解,面临政府封禁"] end subgraph 预防路径["AI 安全前置路径(事前防御)"] D["预判灾难性极端风险"] --> E["研发安全对齐与制度制衡"] E --> F["构建可持续的技术信任体系"] end ``` --- ### [41:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2516s) “最后一份工作”与科技巨头的伦理责任 在当今科技界,技术人员的分歧走向了两个极端:一部分人坚信它将创造无与伦比的人间奇迹,另一部分人则预言它将带来万劫不复的灾难。面对自己在这道光谱中的位置,Daniela 给出了极具代表性的回答:“抱最好的希望,做最坏的打算。”对她而言,这是她职业生涯中所做过的最重要的事情。在 Anthropic 团队内部,这种使命感甚至演变成一种巨大的心理重担——对于某些员工来说,这感觉像是人类的“最后一份工作”,因为强人工智能的到来可能意味着传统劳动的终结;而对另一些人而言,即便不是终点,将这项技术引导到正确的道路上也关乎人类文明的生死存亡。 谈及 AI 带来的颠覆性冲击与大规模失业风险,Emily 尖锐地追问:作为一家持续警告技术危害的开创者,Anthropic 究竟对那些生活被技术颠覆的普通人负有什么责任?Daniela 坚定地表示,开发这项技术的整个行业必须承担起系统性思考风险的兜底责任: - 科技公司绝不能退回到“我们只是为了拉动产品增长,谁知会导致一整代年轻女性患上进食障碍或心理疾病”这种冷血的说辞中; - 预见风险并亲手参与修复因技术扩散造成的创伤,是开发者不可推卸的天职; - 试图将责任归咎于意外,是任何有良知的技术公司都不能采纳的立场。 --- ### [43:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2599s) 乌托邦构想、权力现实与“别作恶”的信任危机 外界常常感到困惑:Anthropic 一方面将自己定位为安全至上的研究机构,公开警告灭绝级风险;另一方面却又在以前所未有的速度推动前沿模型军备竞赛。在 Dario Amodei 撰写的长篇宏文中,他勾勒出了 AI 理想运转下的“终局图景”——人机协同的繁荣乌托邦,技术被驯服为增进福祉的确定力量。为了对冲劳动力市场遭受的毁灭性冲击,他甚至提出了推行全民基本收入(Universal Basic Income, UBI)以及对高利润 AI 企业征收累进税等再分配方案。 然而,当崇高的愿景撞上权力、政治与百亿美元商业利益的坚硬现实,公众对科技巨头的誓言早已充满怀疑。Emily 指出,Google 当年以“不作恶”(Don't be evil)作为立身之本,却在扩张过程中悄然抹去了这句格言;既然 Anthropic 正在打造威力毁天灭地的系统并从中攫取巨大利益,公众凭什么给予信任?Dario 回应道: - 在完全不了解 Anthropic 的情况下,公众保持怀疑态度不仅完全合情合理,甚至是非常理性的选择; - 硅谷在过去数十年里肆意挥霍并失去了全世界的信任,这份信任必须通过真真切切的行动重新赢取; - “我们与众不同”不能仅仅停留在口号上,而必须接受实践的严苛检验。 --- ### [44:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2686s) 拒绝奥本海默式叙事:西拉德、制衡与 25% 的文明毁灭概率 访谈中提到了 Dario 最喜爱的书籍之一——普利策奖获奖巨作《原子弹秘史》(The Making of the Atomic Bomb)。当被问及是否在自己与罗伯特·奥本海默之间看到某种宿命般的投射时,Dario 明确拒绝了这种个人英雄主义英雄史诗的视角。他表示,自己在书中真正产生共鸣的人物是利奥·西拉德(Leo Szilard)——那位最早敏锐构想出核链式反应、随后又竭尽全力奔走呼吁控制核武器的物理学家。 | 历史视角对比 | 罗伯特·奥本海默(J. Robert Oppenheimer) | 利奥·西拉德(Leo Szilard) / Dario Amodei 的立场 | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **角色定位** | 试图置身于一切漩涡中心的超凡领袖 | 率先洞悉底层物理链式反应机制的先驱 | | **历史定性** | Dario 眼中的“失败案例”,展示了不应出现的个人集权模式 | 强调分散风险,主张制度化防御与多方制衡 | | **应对哲学** | 依赖单一主导体系与领袖魅力推进世纪工程 | 警惕权柄集中,在多国、多机构博弈中引入全方位权力制衡 | Dario 坦言,单凭大权在握的个人魅力绝不可能带领人类渡过 AI 这场大考,将希望寄托于中心人物本身就是极其危险的设想。只有在各个权力节点设立严密的制衡机制,历史才可能走向良性结局。 关于他此前提到“AI 导致文明崩溃的概率约为 10% 到 25%”,Emily 质问这一高昂概率是否可能正是 Anthropic 自身研发的模型引发的。Dario 解释称,这一概率源自于前沿技术的固有属性、地缘政治中多国竞争的残酷博弈,以及经济体内部源源不断的商业竞争推力。如果 Anthropic 退出真空,并不会阻止技术浪潮,反而丧失了注入安全基因的机会。Anthropic 倾注了一半的精力致力于将这种风险降至最低,但绝对风险永远无法彻底归零。他打了一个生动的比方: > “假设市场上有一批航空公司,你想建立一家安全性高出 10 倍的公司。即便你的飞机比所有竞品都安全十倍,但如果有人走过来问你:‘你能保证你的飞机永远不会坠毁吗?’你根本不可能做出这种保证。” Emily 随即追问:“如果一架飞机有 25% 的坠毁概率,根本没人会坐上去。”Dario 坦承同意:“没错,25% 确实太高了。我们的全部目标,就是把这个概率压缩得更低、更低。” --- ### [47:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2821s) 终极解压时刻:在末日概率与无忧无虑的马之间 在背负着整个人类文明存亡概率的重压之下,主持人在节目的最后好奇 Dario 如何寻找内心的宁静与解脱。Dario 笑着表示,在巨大的压力面前,久而久之人们会产生一种心理脱敏和适应机制。而在日常生活中,他的解压方式极为朴素:在某些周末彻底抽离工作,专心打打电子游戏。 另一个让他重获内心安宁的避风港是意大利。休假时,他会和妻子以及 Daniela 一起前往意大利。在那里,Daniela 养了一匹名叫卡吕普索(Calypso)的马。Dario 常常会静静地坐在马厩旁边,长时间看着它吃草漫步,在心中默默感叹:眼前这匹无忧无虑的生灵对人类世界的算法、算力竞争、超级智能与文明存亡危机一无所知,“它只是一匹快乐的马”。在技术奇点呼啸而来的狂潮面前,这种纯粹的生命本真成了这位掌控着数百亿美元 AI 帝国的科学家最珍视的喘息时刻。 ## Notable quotes > [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=4s) 这简直是一件超级武器,请千万不要公开发布它。 — 早期企业测试方 > [05:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=306s) 关于安全问题,各方完全可以存在合理的分歧,我们当年和他们确实也有这些争论。但光是学术观点不同,并不足以让人下定决心离开。真正让人无法维系下去的,是当你感到自己无法再信任一个人——当你察觉到对方的价值观并非嘴上宣称的那样,当你觉得他们缺乏基本的诚实。如果缺乏信任且愿景相左,又何必继续争吵内耗?最好的解决方式就是:你走你的阳关道,我走我的独木桥。 — Dario Amodei > [09:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=595s) 如果你选择的商业模式与自身价值观发生根本性冲突,你的日子会非常难过,要么违背自己的价值观,要么变得无足轻重。 — Dario Amodei > [17:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1020s) 极高的 GDP 快速增长,与极高的失业率、不充分就业以及大量低薪岗位并存,伴随着贫富差距的剧烈拉大 — Dario Amodei > [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1129s) 指责我们搞‘廉价营销’的说法本身,才是最廉价的营销手段,这恰恰是整个硅谷深陷社交媒体浅薄狂欢的重度病态表现。 — Dario Amodei > [23:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1399s) 有点像向朝鲜出售核武器 — Dario Amodei > [29:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1791s) 如果双方因误判而轻率交火,在缺乏妥善监管的技术助推下,灾难性事故的发生概率将成倍激增。 — Dario Amodei > [32:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=1974s) 使用这种工具必须持有像持枪执照一样的管制凭证,千万不能公开发布 — 早期测试合作伙伴 > [38:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2331s) 如果这群人拼尽全力都无法让 AI 安全落地,那么这项任务换作世上任何人,都注定无法完成。 — Dario Amodei > [41:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2516s) 抱最好的希望,做最坏的打算。 — Daniela Amodei > [44:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2686s) 假设市场上有一批航空公司,你想建立一家安全性高出 10 倍的公司。即便你的飞机比所有竞品都安全十倍,但如果有人走过来问你:‘你能保证你的飞机永远不会坠毁吗?’你根本不可能做出这种保证。 — Dario Amodei > [47:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg&t=2821s) 它只是一匹快乐的马 — Dario Amodei ## Mentioned Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Emily Chang, Anthropic, OpenAI, Claude, Claude Code, Claude Cowork, Mythos, Project Glasswing, Holden Karnofsky, Sam Altman, Boris Cherny, Jensen Huang, Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump, David Sacks, Leo Szilard, J. Robert Oppenheimer, Palantir, Maven Smart System, Google, xAI, Stripe, Baidu, UC Berkeley, Caltech, NSA, 五角大楼, 世界人权宣言, 技术的青春期, 仁爱神明的机器, 奇爱博士, 原子弹秘史 ## Video description Emily Chang meets Anthropic co-founders Dario and Daniela Amodei for a rare, in-depth discussion of the startup's origin story, its battles with the Pentagon and how the company says it intends to put safety first in the high-stakes AI race. Watch more of The Circuit with Emily Chang: https://www.youtube.com/show/VLPLqq4LnWs3olV2nw7GgFjXHvxVc3T5hXXT?sbp=QAE%3D Hosted by high-profile journalist Emily Chang, The Circuit is a fast-paced, dynamic series that lives at the intersection of culture, tech, entertainment, and business. Every week, Chang will go on location to meet the world’s most fascinating founders, influencers, and innovators, conducting intimate interviews and bringing audiences behind the scenes of the most impactful stories, launches, and trends. #Anthropic #AI #Tech -------- Like this video? Subscribe: http://www.youtube.com/Bloomberg?sub_confirmation=1 Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com for just $1.99 your first month: https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions?in_source=YoutubeOriginals Bloomberg Originals offers bold takes for curious minds on today’s biggest topics. Hosted by experts covering stories you haven’t seen and viewpoints you haven’t heard, you’ll discover cinematic, data-led shows that investigate the intersection of business and culture. Exploring every angle of climate change, technology, finance, sports and beyond, Bloomberg Originals is business as you’ve never seen it. Subscribe for business news, but not as you've known it: exclusive interviews, fascinating profiles, data-driven analysis, and the latest in tech innovation from around the world. Visit our partner channel Bloomberg News for global news and insight in an instant. [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1wZwxY3CMg)

Source quotes

[0:04] 早期企业测试方: 这简直是一件超级武器,请千万不要公开发布它。 [5:06] Dario Amodei: 关于安全问题,各方完全可以存在合理的分歧,我们当年和他们确实也有这些争论。但光是学术观点不同,并不足以让人下定决心离开。真正让人无法维系下去的,是当你感到自己无法再信任一个人——当你察觉到对方的价值观并非嘴上宣称的那样,当你觉得他们缺乏基本的诚实。如果缺乏信任且愿景相左,又何必继续争吵内耗?最好的解决方式就是:你走你的阳关道,我走我的独木桥。 [9:55] Dario Amodei: 如果你选择的商业模式与自身价值观发生根本性冲突,你的日子会非常难过,要么违背自己的价值观,要么变得无足轻重。 [17:00] Dario Amodei: 极高的 GDP 快速增长,与极高的失业率、不充分就业以及大量低薪岗位并存,伴随着贫富差距的剧烈拉大 [18:49] Dario Amodei: 指责我们搞‘廉价营销’的说法本身,才是最廉价的营销手段,这恰恰是整个硅谷深陷社交媒体浅薄狂欢的重度病态表现。 [23:19] Dario Amodei: 有点像向朝鲜出售核武器 [29:51] Dario Amodei: 如果双方因误判而轻率交火,在缺乏妥善监管的技术助推下,灾难性事故的发生概率将成倍激增。 [32:54] 早期测试合作伙伴: 使用这种工具必须持有像持枪执照一样的管制凭证,千万不能公开发布 [38:51] Dario Amodei: 如果这群人拼尽全力都无法让 AI 安全落地,那么这项任务换作世上任何人,都注定无法完成。 [41:56] Daniela Amodei: 抱最好的希望,做最坏的打算。 [44:46] Dario Amodei: 假设市场上有一批航空公司,你想建立一家安全性高出 10 倍的公司。即便你的飞机比所有竞品都安全十倍,但如果有人走过来问你:‘你能保证你的飞机永远不会坠毁吗?’你根本不可能做出这种保证。 [47:01] Dario Amodei: 它只是一匹快乐的马

Source quotes

[11:10] Boris Cherny: For me personally, it's been writing 100% of my code for at least six months. The work of engineering has just completely changed. I feel like I suddenly have superpowers. I have like a jet pack and engineering has never been this fun. [35:24] Dario Amodei: You're yo-yoing from like the most extreme anti-regulatory... to this completely communist, 'the government should grab it all.' We need a more sensible, moderate approach. [42:04] Daniela Amodei: We should not just say, 'Well, we were just trying to grow the product, and suddenly there's an entire generation of young women who have eating disorders... because whoops, we were just trying to grow the product.' That's not the stance that any technology company should take.

Original transcript

[0:04] I love this library. [0:05] It is, it is, it is absolutely beautiful library. [0:08] Are you a big reader? [0:09] You know, I mean, I, I, [0:11] I read a lot in general. [0:12] I don't know that I've had that much time in [0:15] over the last year or so. [0:18] Dario Amodei is an unlikely AI celebrity. [0:22] He's known for warning the world about the risks [0:24] of artificial intelligence. [0:26] Now, his company is an AI frontrunner valued at nearly a [0:29] trillion dollars. [0:31] You're shipping so much, so fast. How are you doing that? [0:34] We use Claude, you know, [0:35] across the product development cycle, [0:36] and it allows us to release very fast. [0:40] Founded by a team of OpenAI defectors in 2021, Anthropic [0:44] started out as an underdog lab. [0:47] Today it's the breakout star, wiping billions in value off [0:50] software stocks, going head-to-head with the Pentagon, [0:54] and creating models allegedly powerful enough to burst [0:57] through the walls of modern cybersecurity. [0:59] Some of the early companies that we gave this [1:01] to said things like, this is a super weapon, [1:04] please don't release this. [1:09] Guiding Anthropic through this is a sibling duo, Dario, [1:13] the brother and visionary, and Daniela, the sister [1:16] and operator who puts Dario's swirling cosmic [1:18] thoughts into action. [1:20] Dario and I, we've always been really close since we were [1:22] little, but I think we always really wanted [1:24] to do something big together. [1:25] Okay, but when you argue who wins? [1:28] No one, [1:29] No one. [1:30] As the AI arms race escalates, the Amodeis are eager [1:33] to establish themselves as the good guys. [1:36] But Anthropic's technology could have profound implications [1:39] for how humanity works, learns thinks, even fights wars. [1:43] Anthropic is run by an ideological lunatic. [1:46] This is a debate about what the proper use of AI [1:50] by the government is. [1:51] At some point, the models become very dangerous, you know, [1:54] the bad guys will have it too. [1:55] And at that point, we have to make sure [1:57] that good guys have an even better model. [1:59] The name Anthropic actually comes from the Greek word [2:02] for human, which speaks to their mission [2:05] to build responsible AI [2:07] for the long-term benefit of humanity. [2:10] Can you actually do that when you're building the most [2:12] powerful technology in the world? [2:20] You are at the center of the AI universe right now. [2:23] What does that feel like? [2:24] The experience I've had for my whole career, [2:27] and certainly the whole time at Anthropic, is [2:31] that there's this kind of smooth exponential, [2:33] and the experience of the smooth exponential is, [2:36] nothing's happening, nothing's [2:37] happening, nothing's happening. [2:38] Little things happen, and then zoom, it goes crazy. [2:41] So, you know, I was watching this graph for a while [2:43] and I said, oh yeah, we'll probably become the, you know, [2:46] the, the AI company with, you know, the, the most revenue [2:49] and the most valuation some sometime around this time. [2:52] And, and indeed, indeed, it has happened. [2:55] We're just keeping in mind all the things we usually keep in [2:59] mind, you know, how do we train good models? [3:00] How do we put them in good products? [3:02] How do we make sure that everything's safe? [3:04] What were you like as a kid growing up in San Francisco? [3:07] I know your, your dad was a leather craftsman. [3:08] Your mom worked in libraries. How did that shape you? [3:12] You know, the whole, you know, like first, you know, [3:15] internet revolution was happening around me [3:17] and I had absolutely no interest in it. [3:20] I was just interested in like, doing math [3:22] and like scra, you know, scrawling things. [3:24] I was interested in, like, you know, [3:26] understanding the universe. [3:27] I was interested in science fiction. [3:30] I think I just felt a lot of curiosity about the world. [3:35] What was it like growing up with Dario? [3:37] He was so smart. [3:39] He was taking, you know, calculus when he was, you know, [3:43] in I think like middle school. [3:45] He took math classes at UC Berkeley, [3:47] when he was in high school. I was actually more into [3:51] to reading and arts. [3:52] So we were almost like complete compliments in that way. [3:56] Dario studied neuroscience [3:57] before turning to AI at Baidu and later Google. [4:01] While Daniela started out as an early employee at Stripe. [4:04] They lived together in San Francisco, along [4:06] with Daniela's husband, Holden Karnofsky. [4:09] Then in 2016, [4:11] Dario joined the newly formed OpenAI followed by Daniela. [4:14] In 2018, the company began as a nonprofit [4:17] that promised a safe, more open path to super intelligence. [4:21] I think we need to think right now about [4:23] how we want this deployed, how everyone gets [4:26] to benefit from it, how we're gonna govern it, how we're [4:28] gonna make it safe and sort of good for humanity. [4:32] At OpenAI, Dario developed the concept of scaling laws, [4:35] predicting that large language models would improve simply [4:38] by adding more data [4:39] and computing power, [4:41] even if the underlying algorithm stayed the same [4:44] At that point in time, [4:45] I know it sounds crazy now, looking back, not a lot [4:47] of people believed, Hey, scale up is the way [4:49] that these models are gonna get smarter and better. [4:51] That was sort of an unusual counter-cultural scientific [4:55] perspective that I think was really held by our, you know, [4:58] founding research team. [4:59] That approach helped supercharge OpenAI's models, paving [5:03] the way for chatGPT, [5:05] but the Amodeis reportedly clashed [5:07] with Altman over the company's direction and values. [5:10] Altman has said, for all the differences I have [5:12] with Anthropic, I mostly trust them as a company. [5:16] Your decision to leave OpenAI has become Silicon [5:19] Valley lore. [5:20] What did you disagree on? [5:22] Look, I'll, I'm gonna say it, [5:25] I'm gonna say it very simply. [5:26] There are many valid disagreements to be had on safety. [5:29] We certainly had some of those disagreements with them, [5:32] but you know, people that, that, that, [5:34] that alone is not sufficient to leave. [5:36] When you feel that you can't trust someone, when you feel [5:39] that their values are not what they say they are, [5:43] when you feel that they're not honest, [5:45] that makes it very hard to, you know, to continue to work [5:49] with a company, to continue to trust the company. [5:51] And look, at the end of the day, why argue [5:55] with someone when you don't have the same [5:57] vision and you don't trust them? [5:59] The way to resolve it is you go off and do your thing. [6:02] They go off and do their thing. [6:08] So this is Precita Park. [6:10] When Dario and Daniela decided to leave OpenAI [6:13] to start Anthropic, this is [6:15] where the early team would get together. [6:18] It was during the pandemic. [6:19] So the story goes, [6:21] and a bunch of early employees would come here, [6:24] they'd pull up a chair on the grass, they'd have lunch, [6:27] and they'd talk about what they were building. [6:30] When we started this company, there were seven co-founders [6:33] of which me and Daniela are two. [6:34] And now, you know, we we're, we're the, [6:37] we're the basically the only company in the space [6:39] that has all of its co-founders still here. [6:41] You don't get to, you know, be a company [6:43] of the size and scale that we are. [6:45] With that happening like that almost never happens. [6:49] From the start, Anthropic pitched itself [6:51] as the ultimate safety conscious AI company. [6:54] Dario has published long essays with names like Machines [6:57] of Loving Grace and The Adolescence [6:59] of Technology, musing on the miraculous potential of AI, [7:03] as well as the worst case scenarios. [7:06] Anthropic's chatbot, Claude has been trained to follow a set [7:09] of principles called a constitution, intended [7:12] to keep it on the straight and narrow. [7:14] Claude has a very distinct style and feel a human name. [7:19] What are you trying to convey? [7:20] I think when people interact with Claude versus, you know, [7:23] other systems, there is more of a feeling of, I like [7:26] to describe it as professional warmth. [7:28] So the goal is not for it to be your best friend, [7:31] but it's not for it to be sort of cold, rote, calculating. [7:34] It should feel approachable, [7:35] but distant, right? Professional. [7:37] Anthropic has talked about teaching Claude to be good. [7:41] What is a good model? What is a bad model? [7:44] You don't want a model that lies [7:46] accidentally or intentionally, right? [7:48] Lying, we call hallucinations. It makes something up. [7:50] The models are just trained to predict the next word. [7:52] So sometimes they don't know and they just invent something. [7:56] Models sometimes, as we've shown in our research, [7:58] can purposely try to deceive you. [8:00] We have to make sure that doesn't happen in production [8:01] models that we expose to customers. [8:03] And then there's a lot of work around harmlessness, [8:05] just making sure that the model is not accidentally [8:08] producing, you know, information that is wrong or harmful [8:11] or, or could cause someone to do something bad [8:13] Whose values are being put into Claude, [8:15] like is there a universal good? [8:17] There's so many religions, so many different beliefs, like [8:19] how do you even decide that? [8:21] So of course there's no universal standard for [8:23] what makes something helpful or harmless, [8:25] but there are founding documents in human history, [8:27] like the UN Declaration of Human Rights that we can use [8:31] to train Claude's character. [8:33] And I think, you know, interestingly on the religious front, [8:35] we've actually started to have a lot of conversations [8:38] with religious leaders around how should we think about, [8:41] you know, Claude, the entity, [8:42] and how can we bake in some of the kind of core values [8:46] that are consistent across religions types of belief [8:50] that really just transcend, you know, a specific worldview, [8:53] but that are really things that human beings been grappling [8:55] with for, for millennia. [8:57] Have you tried to give Claude a trait that didn't take, [9:00] or was there any trait that emerged that surprised you? [9:03] I think in the early days, it's funny [9:06] to look back on them now, the kind [9:07] of early Claudes, Claude two era, [9:09] sometimes Claude would be almost a little bit nannyish. [9:12] Claude was like, I'm really concerned about you, [9:13] and you're like, Claude, I was [9:14] asking for the weather, right? [9:16] It was like, it was something really benign. [9:17] Thankfully we didn't, you know, release most of, most [9:19] of the most egregious versions of those. [9:21] But I think it is, you know, it is, when you think about it, [9:23] it's like tuning a dial. [9:25] And so our researchers have this very fine needle [9:27] to thread in order to land at the center of that. [9:31] Whatever Anthropic is doing with Claude, [9:33] it seems to be working. [9:36] Anthropic's revenue has skyrocketed over the past year, [9:38] making the company profitable for the first time. [9:41] That's largely thanks [9:42] to the company's focus on more lucrative business tools. [9:46] Claude Code, a major leap that automated large chunks [9:49] of software engineering [9:50] and Claude Cowork, which gave that power to everyone else. [9:55] Now, early on, others focused on fun splashy consumer apps. [9:59] You made a bet on coding and enterprise. [10:02] Why did you make that bet? [10:03] Was it a, was it a values decision or a business decision? [10:07] Look, if you pick a business model [10:09] that fundamentally conflicts with your values, [10:11] you're gonna have a hard time, right? [10:13] Either you betray your own values or you become irrelevant. [10:18] And so when we thought about it, we said, look, you know, [10:20] we've seen the world of social media, the consumer world, [10:23] it, it really seems to, you know, encourage engagement, [10:27] even addiction, you know, the slop we've seen [10:30] with AI video models, it's like, what's going on? [10:33] Is it wants to maximize the number of minutes that you're, [10:35] you're paying attention to [10:36] because that's the advertising revenue-driven incentive. [10:39] Whereas if we look at enterprise, look, I mean, you know, [10:43] we want to make these models useful to people. [10:46] We want to use AI to, you know, cure diseases [10:50] that we couldn't cure before, right? [10:51] Well, that's working with biotech, it's working with pharma, [10:54] it's working with academic research groups. [10:56] All of those are enterprises, right? [10:58] We want to use AI to like, you know, [11:01] to make energy cheaper and more efficient. [11:03] That's, that's all enterprise. [11:05] And so I think it served us well to have this business model [11:08] that largely aligns with our values. [11:10] Soon after Claude Cowork was released, [11:12] $285 billion in market value vanished overnight. [11:16] Traders called it the SaaSpocalypse. [11:18] This kind of white collar wipeout story in [11:21] the software sector. Terrifying. [11:23] Some of those are down for nine days in a row, [11:25] so clearly the tension is building. [11:27] If AI continues improving at this pace, how much [11:30] of traditional software gets replaced and how fast. [11:34] I think with AI like the pie is getting bigger, right? [11:38] So the existing incumbents may be smaller [11:41] and relative terms, some of them may, may go down in value, [11:44] some of them may even may even go out [11:46] of business if they don't, [11:47] if they don't adapt in the right way. [11:49] But like, I would guess [11:50] that the software industry gets larger, not [11:53] although there will be some big losers, those who don't kind [11:56] of see what's coming, who don't identify the moats they [11:58] have, they're gonna have a really hard time. [12:01] It's sort of the quiet cafe. [12:02] Okay. Anthropic's recent growth spurt might not have happened [12:05] without this man. [12:06] Boris Cherny, the engineer behind Claude Code [12:09] and Claude Cowork. When Anthropic hired him in 2024, [12:13] Cherny was living a very different life in rural Japan. [12:17] There was a lot of farmer's markets, like very slow. [12:19] We were making miso. That was sort of the big hobby. [12:21] And I remember using the first AI chatbot [12:24] that I'd ever used, and it just took my breath away [12:27] and I was just like, oh my God, I have to, I have [12:30] to just be a part of this. [12:31] And I, I'm also just such a big scifi reader [12:33] and so I just know how bad this thing can go. [12:35] Like this technology is incredibly powerful [12:37] and so we move, move back. [12:38] You created Claude Code, you led the development [12:42] of Claude Cowork, [12:44] what problem were you trying to solve? [12:47] If you look at the coding [12:48] products, they were all pretty simple. [12:49] It was like, it was sort of like, you know, [12:51] like complete the word, complete the sentence. [12:53] That was the extent of AI in coding [12:56] and we just wanted to make a way bigger bet. [12:59] And our bet was, we think actually a coding [13:01] agent can do all of it. [13:03] A year and a half ago you wrote the code by hand [13:06] and sometimes you press tab [13:07] and it would auto complete a line. [13:08] Now I talk to my Claude and it writes the code [13:12] and then while it does that, I talk [13:13] to the next Claude and it writes some code. [13:15] And at any point I have either, you know, [13:17] like a few Claudes running and up [13:18] to a few thousand Claudes running, doing things. [13:21] How much code is Claude writing internally [13:24] for engineers here? [13:25] It's writing almost all of it on my team. [13:28] So for me personally, it's been writing a hundred percent [13:31] of my code for at least six months. [13:33] The work of engineering has just completely changed. [13:36] I feel like I suddenly have superpowers. [13:38] I have like a jet pack and the engineering [13:40] has never been this fun. [13:41] Can we give Claude a spin? Yeah, let's do this. [13:44] All right. Alright, so let's, [13:45] let's make like a little recipe app. [13:46] So make a recipe app. What do you want it to do? [13:51] I would love it to suggest meals for the week. [13:56] So, you know, this is gonna take maybe a few minutes [13:58] and let's, let's just see if Claude builds this. [14:01] Oh, it gave me some options. Hmm. Let's do [14:05] These look pretty tasty actually. Yeah, [14:07] I could do a Greek chicken power bowl. [14:09] When I click on a recipe, I want it [14:13] to show me how to do it. Thank you. [14:19] Aw, I'm sure Claude appreciates that. [14:24] I always try to say thank you. [14:25] Yeah, I always try to be nice too. I [14:27] don't know. A recipe app might not be the most mind [14:30] blowing demo of Anthropic's technology, [14:32] but what Claude Code just did in minutes, used to take hours [14:35] or days for some. That looks like a big opportunity. [14:39] Are you like nervous about next week or is it like.. [14:42] What's next week, Your developer conference? [14:44] Oh! Yes, yes. There's so many things happening every week. [14:52] Year over year. API volume is up nearly 17 x on the cloud. [14:55] In the last 12 months, we shipped eight frontier models [14:59] to developers and users. [15:01] Welcome to the second annual Code with Claude conference, [15:04] where Claude superfans come, hoping [15:06] to get a glimpse of the future. [15:08] We're having a lot of fun. There's a ton of adrenaline. [15:11] This is the first year we've grown [15:13] faster than the exponential. [15:14] In the first quarter of this year, we saw, if you were [15:18] to annualize it, 80 x growth per year. [15:22] Ooh. I [15:25] use Claude every day in the form of Claude Code [15:29] to do all sorts of stuff. Not [15:31] just write code. [15:32] I write way more code than I did five years ago. [15:34] I've got the confidence of, I don't know, [15:36] a 22-year-old with VC money. I'm not 22. [15:40] My friend invited me and it's been, it's amazing. [15:43] As someone that's not really technical, [15:45] which I think it's really interesting just to see [15:47] what everyone's working on, what's out there. [15:49] I think the, the concerning part or the, [15:51] and the exciting part is hey, they can do things that are, [15:55] we couldn't dream of and timelines we couldn't ever expect. [15:58] But the kind of alternate side of [16:00] that reality is you really have to be prepared [16:03] because they will really be a thousand [16:05] times more productive. [16:08] All of this raises an obvious question. [16:10] Will engineers be the first casualties [16:12] of the AI they're building? [16:14] It's been revenge of the nerds for a while? Is that over? [16:19] I think we all become nerds, [16:21] But what happens to the actual nerds? [16:24] I think the actual nerds will, [16:26] they're they have to figure it out. [16:28] Yeah. I I think for a lot of them, the skill that they had [16:32] before is gonna help them in the future [16:34] because they sort of have a pretty big head start. [16:37] They do a lot of things that are not coding [16:39] and general also have to talk to users. [16:41] They have to plan, they have to think about what's next. [16:44] So I, I think these are still parts [16:45] of engineering that are gonna stick around. [16:48] Silicon Valley may have AI fever, [16:50] but elsewhere the mood is less upbeat. [16:53] 70% of Americans think AI will kill jobs [16:56] and nearly a third worry, theirs will be one of them. [17:00] Dario Amodei has been outspoken about this issue [17:03] and some of his predictions don't exactly sound reassuring. [17:06] I think we could have this very unusual combination [17:10] of very fast GDP growth and high unemployment, [17:14] or at least underemployment or, you know, low wage job. [17:19] A lot of low wage jobs, high inequality. [17:21] You've been really direct about job loss. [17:24] AI could eliminate half [17:25] of all entry level white collar jobs in [17:27] the next one to five years. [17:28] That was a year ago. AI has moved incredibly fast. [17:32] Is it still 50% or is it higher? [17:35] I don't know exactly, but I'm, I'm still, [17:37] I'm still pretty concerned. [17:38] I'm still the same order of concerns. [17:40] You know, we are seeing right now [17:43] that AI is making people more productive. [17:45] But that's the usual hump. [17:46] You automate 90% of the job, [17:48] great people are 10 times more productive in the other 10% [17:51] 'cause they're 10 times more leveraged. [17:53] But eventually it gets close to a hundred percent. [17:56] Now the sequel to that is, well then you have [17:58] to find something else for them to do. [17:59] Right now AI makes the software engineers more productive, [18:02] even though AI writes all the code or almost all the code. [18:05] But we're already starting to see the beginning of like, [18:08] you know, there may be some people that it's, [18:10] it's not making more productive, that it's better for the AI [18:13] to just, to just do the thing. [18:15] How does that sit with you? [18:17] It's, it's very uncomfortable. Yeah. [18:21] I I think this is, this is the reason why I chose to go [18:24] to Anthropic and I think this is the reason that a lot [18:26] of people here chose to go here is artificial intelligence [18:30] is this force that is far bigger than we are. [18:33] But here we can hopefully make it go a little bit better. [18:36] Do you feel like it's your job to do something about that? [18:39] Or is that someone else's problem? [18:42] I think it's a thing that we have to talk about. [18:43] We have to advocate for it. [18:45] Ultimately, it's up to society to solve it. [18:47] This is bigger than one company. [18:49] There has been a lot of pushback on, you know, your, [18:51] and I know you've said you're trying to warn people, [18:54] but that, you know, you're, you know, Jensen Huang said, [18:56] you're conflating tasks with jobs. [18:58] AI is creating jobs. [19:00] Anybody who is saying that AI is wiping out jobs [19:03] is scaring people. [19:04] Other folks have said this, you know, it's sort [19:06] of doom marketing that benefits anthropic. [19:08] So, so I wanna be really clear [19:11] and push back hard against this. [19:13] In every interview I talk about the, [19:16] the possible ways to address these risks from tax [19:20] and macroeconomic policy to [19:21] what the new jobs are in The Adolescence of Technology. [19:25] I have like five pages where I lay out the difference [19:28] between tasks and jobs. [19:29] Why this time is different than other times, [19:32] but social media, which I detest, [19:34] which I detest as a category, [19:37] people have these three second clips from, you know, [19:40] from a year ago. [19:41] I've, I've written much more carefully about these things [19:45] where, where I talk about the risks. [19:47] So these are this, this, the idea [19:49] that this is cheap marketing is itself cheap marketing. [19:52] I think it's, it's part of the disease of Silicon Valley. [19:55] It's been caught up in this social media world of, [19:59] of, of three seconds. [20:00] And so my message is just definitely not doom is coming. [20:03] My message is like, this is something, you know, [20:05] that we should see coming, that we're worried about [20:07] and that we need to actually respond to positively [20:13] Beyond the software industry, [20:15] the potential impact of AI on jobs seems harder to predict. [20:20] Anthropic has published a paper estimating which fields [20:22] could make the most use of AI in the near future. [20:25] If its predictions are right, management, finance, [20:28] and legal jobs could soon look very different. [20:32] Which jobs go away, who gets replaced [20:34] and what new jobs are created. [20:36] So no one knows for sure [20:39] because you know, the economy's unpredictable, right? [20:41] The thing that that we have going [20:43] for us here is the pie is gonna expand a lot. [20:46] And so because the pie is gonna expand a lot, [20:49] there are probably going to be places where people can go. [20:52] It's just a matter of finding them fast enough. [20:54] So play this out for me a little bit. [20:56] You know, you wake up in five years, you know, [20:59] what does this country look like? [21:02] What are those people doing? [21:03] Yeah, so 'cause if there's that much unemployment, is [21:06] that not how revolutions start? [21:08] Yeah, no, this is the outcome we wanna prevent. [21:10] This is absolutely the outcome we want to prevent. [21:12] I think there's a few places, none of them are guaranteed. [21:15] We're not sure, but there's the physical world, [21:18] we need a lot of more people to make, build, [21:21] manufacture things in the physical world. [21:24] Anything that's human centered, I think [21:26] that's gonna be a big deal, right? [21:27] People, or at least some people wanna talk to humans. [21:30] So these kind of human relationship driven jobs, like, [21:33] I think those are gonna be important [21:35] and I think there'll be some effort by the humans to kind [21:39] of direct AIs right at, at some level it has to be in line [21:42] with someone's values and someone's intentions and, [21:45] and so I, I think there's gonna be some role there, [21:48] although I don't know how thin versus how thick it will be. [21:51] I think I feel a little bit more hopeful [21:53] that humans will continue to find ways to leverage AI [21:56] to be productive, to do the parts of the work [21:59] that are meaningful to us that only humans can do. [22:01] I think the human [22:03] to human interaction will never fully go away. [22:05] The example I often reach for is, is [22:08] what will happen in medicine today. [22:10] We hire doctors who are expert diagnosticians. [22:14] I think AI is gonna soon be pretty good at telling you [22:17] what the suite of options of things [22:18] that are wrong with you and what test to run. [22:19] And you won't need a doctor to do that. [22:21] But an AI can't physically examine you [22:24] and say, Hey, does it hurt when I press, you know, here. [22:27] They can't have a bedside manner with you that says like, [22:30] tell me how you're feeling about this. [22:31] How are you, how are you coping with going [22:33] through this process? [22:34] And I think we're going to pivot something like medicine [22:36] to be much more focused on the interpersonal [22:38] because the diagnostic tools are going [22:40] to become much better. [22:42] But the interpersonal human part, that's, that's not gonna [22:44] change. [22:49] Explain this to me. Daniela runs day-to-day operations. [22:52] All the leadership team reports to you. Yes. [22:54] No one reports to you. That sounds like a pretty sweet job. [22:57] It's incredibly freeing. [22:59] It lets me do all the things [23:00] that I do much more easily than I would otherwise [23:05] Because it's and she does all the work. [23:06] Is that what you're saying? It's, it's, it's a, I'm just, [23:08] I if if you, if you had to go through the things I had [23:13] to go through during Department of War or no, [23:19] The Amodeis hope AI can have a utopian influence on society, [23:23] but there's no denying the technology's destructive [23:26] and dystopian potential. [23:28] Anthropic is at the center of a technological arms race [23:31] with powerful governments vying for control. [23:34] Dario has charged head on into this arena. [23:37] He's not afraid to blast his competitors. [23:39] And then I think there are some players who, you know, [23:42] who, who are yoloing who, who pull, [23:44] pull the risk dial too far. [23:46] And I'm very concerned. Who is yoloing? [23:48] So I, that's a question I'm not gonna answer [23:51] Or critique the US government [23:53] and Anthropic's own partners for selling AI chips to China. [23:56] It's a bit like, you know, I I I don't know like selling, [24:00] selling, you know, nuclear weapons to, to North Korea. [24:03] I've been very outspoken about the need [24:06] for export controls on chips to China. [24:08] I say this because I think it would be really bad [24:11] for America, for, you know, the state [24:13] of democracy in the world for, you know, China [24:16] to be ahead in AI capabilities. [24:18] And you know, it's, it's like some [24:20] of the chipmakers obviously don't agree with that view, [24:23] but it hasn't stopped me from saying it. [24:25] Even after we've signed more partnerships, [24:27] I'm sure they wish we didn't say these things, [24:30] but these things are what are what I believe. [24:32] And so, you know, look, we're all adults here. [24:34] We can work together on one thing while [24:35] disagreeing about another thing. [24:39] Amodei's statements about geopolitics date back [24:41] to his days at Caltech. As a sophomore physics student, [24:44] he developed a reputation as an anti-war advocate [24:47] who believed scientists shouldn't sit in ivory towers. [24:50] It's a worldview that would later define Anthropic's position [24:53] on the future of war. [24:55] You've had a longstanding anti-war stance [24:57] and yet you were one of the first AI companies [25:00] to sign a contract with the Department of Defense [25:03] to operate on classified networks. [25:04] These are the, are the networks [25:06] that the US uses to fight wars. Explain that. [25:09] Look, I mean, the world changes. [25:10] Like, you know, my view of this technology, you know, [25:13] when I see Russia invading Ukraine, when I see the risk [25:17] of China invading Taiwan, you know, it worries me [25:22] that we have a kind of resurgent authoritarian block [25:26] that they're very aggressive [25:27] and that we need to defend ourselves. [25:30] You know, I may not agree with every policy of I [25:32] of either administration, [25:34] but you know, that's why we've generally [25:35] been supportive of this. [25:37] You've been working with Palantir since 2024. [25:39] That's right. You know, their technology is used [25:41] by ICE, police departments, in Gaza. [25:43] Is Claude being used for surveillance in other ways? [25:46] We, we don't work with ICE either through Palantir [25:49] or anyone else. [25:50] We don't work with CBP. I don't believe we work in Gaza. [25:54] We're very careful about, you know, scoping our engagements [25:57] to things that we believe in. [26:00] In 2025, Anthropic along with OpenAI xAI [26:04] and Google won a $200 million contract with the Pentagon. [26:07] Anthropic framed it as an opportunity [26:09] to become a leading AI vendor for the government. [26:14] Claude was reportedly used [26:15] by the US military in the operation [26:17] to seize Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. [26:20] Weeks later, everything started to unravel. [26:23] We bring you breaking news from Anthropic, the Department [26:26] of Defense demand that Anthropic allow full use [26:28] of its AI technology without guardrails. [26:31] Anthropic drew red lines refusing to let Claude be used [26:34] for mass surveillance [26:35] and autonomous weapons putting the company on a collision [26:38] course with the Pentagon. [26:39] The tech giant facing a deadline today to accept conditions [26:42] or be blacklisted. [26:44] Does a commercial entity have the right to determine [26:47] how their products are used by the military? [26:51] Lawsuits were filed [26:52] and Anthropic was banned from the Pentagon, underscored [26:55] by strong words from President Trump [26:57] and defense secretary Pete Hegseth [26:59] Anthropic is run by an ideological lunatic who [27:02] shouldn't have a, so that's, but that's not my question. [27:04] My question is AI decision making about what we do. [27:07] Do you mind being called an ideological lunatic [27:10] or a bunch of left wing nut jobs? [27:12] You know, I've been called worse things [27:13] than that all the time. [27:14] What does winning this fight actually look like? [27:17] I won't even call it a fight. [27:18] This is more a debate about what the proper use of AI [27:23] by the government is. [27:24] And AI is an emerging new technology. [27:27] We don't understand the ways in which it's [27:30] reliable or unreliable. [27:32] We don't understand the ways in which it promotes our values [27:35] or undermines our values. [27:36] And so one of the things that I thought was important was [27:39] to establish a precedent on some of the, some [27:43] of the use cases we think are good, [27:44] which frankly is most of them. [27:46] And, and some of the use cases that we're concerned about. [27:50] A US official has said, with the help of LLMs, [27:52] the US military has gone from being able [27:54] to hit a thousand targets a day to 5,000 targets a day. [27:59] That means Claude can help kill more people more quickly. [28:03] Are you comfortable with that? [28:04] Basically, you're, you're asking like, you know, [28:06] do you believe in this country, right? [28:08] Do you want this country [28:09] to be a more powerful actor rather than a less powerful [28:12] actor on the world stage? [28:13] I do. I'm a patriot. It's not up to me. [28:15] If we provide a technology, it's not up to us to say, [28:18] you can do this military operation [28:20] and you can't do that military operation. [28:22] Now, I might privately believe [28:24] that this military operation makes sense [28:27] and that military operation is a bad idea, [28:29] but we're not gonna deny the technology. [28:31] You, you basically have to, you know, you have [28:34] to leave policy in the hands [28:36] of the military decision makers. [28:38] Bloomberg has reported that Claude is being used [28:41] by the US military and the war in Iran [28:43] to do AI assisted targeting via a platform made [28:47] by Palantir Maven Smart system. In February, [28:50] US missile reportedly hit a girl school in Iran killing more [28:54] than 150 people, most of them children. [28:57] Did Claude play a role in that strike? [29:00] We don't know exactly how, you know, [29:03] these models were used, you know, obviously like, you know, [29:07] these things that, that, you know, mistakes [29:09] that happen in warfare are really, really terrible. [29:12] Like this is a really terrible thing to happen. [29:15] We were willing to risk the future of our company [29:17] to like limit how, you know, these models are used [29:21] and you know, what, what you're talking about is a use case [29:24] that doesn't even violate our red lines. [29:26] We're worried that there will be a hundred times as much, [29:29] you know, with, with use cases that, that, [29:31] that do violate our red lines. [29:33] Now I, you know, I I I, you know, again, again, [29:35] I would say I think overall the use of these, the, the use [29:39] of these models is appropriate. [29:41] I think it's good on net, you know, [29:43] but military decision makers make terrible mistakes even [29:48] when, even, even at the best of times, [29:49] and I, I don't know if we're in the best of times. [29:51] What we've seen here is Claude assists, [29:54] but a human makes the final call. [29:56] So a human made that final call, not Claude. [29:59] Imagine if you had a world in which, not Claude, [30:02] because we haven't allowed it, but someone else's AI model, [30:05] the AI model just makes the decision [30:06] and the human never sees it. [30:08] That's what we were standing up for. [30:09] That's what we were fighting against. [30:11] This school had a website. [30:12] You could have found it in a Google Search, [30:14] like shouldn't Claude have spotted that? [30:16] And it doesn't speak to a scarier issue about using [30:20] technology as a shortcut in war. [30:22] The principle that was obeyed here is a human makes the [30:26] human makes the final decision. [30:28] I don't know what role Claude or any other AI had, [30:31] but like, if, if this isn't an illustration why [30:34] that principle is so important, I don't know what is, [30:37] Is AI warfare more likely [30:40] to stop World War III, a war between the US and China? [30:45] Or is it more likely to make it happen? [30:48] I would say on balance it is more likely to stop it. [30:50] But if we have no limits on how it's used, then I think, [30:55] you know, it could be more likely to cause it. [30:56] You've seen Dr. StrangeLove, right? [30:58] The premise of it was like, you know, [31:00] you have a doomsday device [31:01] that automatically fires nuclear weapons when it thinks [31:04] nuclear weapons are being fired at it. [31:05] What could go wrong? Right? [31:07] I think the way conflicts happen is that, you know, the, [31:10] the two sides jump at each other. [31:11] They misunderstand each other. [31:13] And when we don't have proper oversight of this technology, [31:16] I think those kinds of accidents are more likely to happen. [31:19] Now, I think if AI is used in an appropriate way, in, in, [31:22] in, not even warfare, [31:24] but think of just, just intelligence collection, you know, [31:28] let, let's say we're able to, you know, predict an invasion [31:31] of Taiwan or a new movement in Ukraine. [31:34] Like, you know, our adversaries will think twice about, [31:38] you know, about conducting some kind of invasion [31:41] or military operation if we know [31:42] everything that they're doing. [31:46] AI's role on the battlefield raises difficult questions, [31:49] even for a company willing to debate the ethical dilemmas [31:52] of its own technology. [31:53] It's a conversation Amodei seems eager to have in public. [31:58] How do you handle the pressure? [32:00] I try very hard to communicate [32:02] and always be straightforward and honest. [32:04] I get up in front of the company every two weeks [32:08] and just talk for an hour about just what's on my mind, [32:11] what's going on in the industry, [32:12] what's going on in the outside world. [32:14] It's totally uncensored. [32:15] And not only does it build trust, it's very freeing for me [32:19] where I feel that I have 3,000 people [32:22] who are on the same page as me. [32:23] That is an incredible amplifier [32:26] and is one of the most useful things in [32:28] handing, handling the pressure. [32:29] Then when we have to confront an external challenge, [32:33] stand up to, you know, some very difficult situations [32:37] that we've seen in the last few months, that is [32:39] what allows us to have a consistent and coherent position. [32:42] And, and I think, I think it's an incredible advantage [32:45] because I never feel like I'm alone. [32:54] Lurking in the background at Anthropic's headquarters was [32:56] the surprise development of a new AI model called Mythos. [33:01] A model so powerful, it spooked everyone. [33:04] Anthropic is making headlines almost on a weekly basis. [33:06] Yes, Most notably now around mythos. [33:08] The company believes it's this enormous threat. [33:11] Imagine a world where everyone had a nuclear [33:13] bazooka basically [33:15] Mythos identified thousands [33:16] of cybersecurity vulnerabilities, [33:18] exposing potential flaws in every major operating system. [33:22] Anthropic signaled that if fully released mythos could hack [33:26] banks, pry open state secrets [33:28] and cripple critical infrastructure. [33:31] I think the thing that surprised me most about it was the [33:35] models had been climbing in their ability [33:38] to find vulnerabilities. [33:39] It was a particularly large jump. [33:41] Some of the early companies that we gave this [33:43] to said things like, this is a super weapon, you should have [33:47] to own a gun license to use it. [33:49] Please don't release this. In [33:52] an initiative called Project Glasswing, [33:54] Anthropic gave select organizations access to Mythos. [33:58] Even federal agencies like the National Security [34:00] Administration clamored [34:02] to use it despite Anthropic's blacklisting by the Pentagon. [34:06] I think the future is this kind of cat [34:08] and mouse game where we need to make sure [34:11] that the good guys have the tools that they need to defend, [34:15] and then at some point the, you know, [34:16] the bad guys will have it too. [34:18] And, and at that point we have [34:19] to make sure the good guys have an even better model [34:21] so they can be ready for this. [34:23] Is it possible to stay ahead [34:24] of the bad guys really though? [34:26] That's what we hope the criticism is. [34:29] You're effectively deciding who gets access and who doesn't. [34:32] Why should anyone be comfortable with that kind [34:34] of concentration of power? [34:36] It wasn't like, oh, it's so powerful [34:38] and let's decide who gets the power. [34:40] It was a very specific concern around cybersecurity [34:44] and so the way that we decided who to give the model [34:47] to was grounded in that specific fear. [34:49] There's obviously nuance to decide, like [34:51] where do you draw that circle? [34:53] I think that's really complicated. [34:54] I think we've tried to be as publicly open as possible [34:58] to say we're trying our best to make this decision well, [35:00] but like we might not do it perfectly. [35:03] What about the folks who say this was just good marketing. [35:06] You know, we, we have suffered enormously commercially [35:10] from not releasing this model. [35:11] This model has incredibly accelerated research within [35:15] Anthropic and production and next models. [35:17] It would do the same in the outside world if, [35:20] if we were to release it. [35:21] This has hurt us enormously commercially. [35:24] Have you had to make trade-offs already [35:25] that you're not entirely comfortable with? [35:27] Throughout the entire history [35:29] of Anthropic has been trade-offs, right? [35:32] In some ideal world, you would prefer to, [35:34] before you release the first chat bot, you know, [35:36] you could spend years studying, you know, every, [35:39] every possible thing that could go wrong with it. [35:41] Now, we did delay, we did delay the initial release [35:44] of Claude, but you know, we did it for a few months. [35:46] So everything is a trade off now that we're in, you know, [35:51] what I would describe as a commercially leading position, [35:54] we can afford to move the dial even further [35:56] towards being careful, right? [35:57] That's what the Mythos release was about, right? [36:00] It's very hard to do something like [36:01] that if you're not the leading player. [36:04] There's this argument, why wouldn't the [36:06] government take you over? [36:07] Why would they let a private company control [36:10] technology? That's so powerful? [36:12] So I think, I actually think that's a very, [36:15] that's a very serious question and I share those concerns. [36:18] I don't think the government should outright take us over. [36:22] Every previous powerful technology we've seen in history was [36:26] either built by the government [36:28] or originated with the government. [36:29] So nuclear weapons, obviously, you know, initially built [36:33] by the government, the internet, GPS, cell phones, [36:37] AI is the first technology [36:38] that's been built in the private sector [36:41] and where government has not really had a serious role [36:44] and is coming in late to the game. [36:46] I think that's actually a dangerous and unstable situation. [36:49] It is not the situation I would've chosen this technology. [36:53] I'm scared of companies having it, [36:54] but I'm also scared of government having it. [36:56] And then, you know, [36:58] we need basic regulation of the technology. [37:00] You know, more [37:01] and more as I've seen what we've seen with Mythos, you know, [37:04] I think we need to start doing pre-release testing, [37:07] required pre-release testing, testing [37:09] and auditing of the models. [37:11] And this was an approach the White House rejected [37:13] initially on his first day back in office, President Trump [37:17] with the help of former AI [37:18] and crypto czar, David Sachs dismantled President Biden's AI [37:22] executive order seeking guardrails, [37:24] instead favoring a hands-off, [37:26] let Silicon Valley do its thing approach. [37:29] We believe that excessive regulation [37:31] of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry just [37:36] as it's taking off. [37:38] But with Mythos and its national security implications, [37:40] proving hard to ignore the White House now seems to want [37:44] to gatekeep the world's most powerful ai [37:47] It's very funny to me how there's a particular group [37:51] of people in the tech world in Silicon Valley, they started [37:54] with a position of like, you know, even having transparency [37:57] around this technology, even export control, you know, [38:00] this is all, you know, just totally, [38:02] it'll apocalyptically destroy our potential [38:05] to create the technology. [38:06] It'll kill innovation. [38:08] And then as soon as they see the first real danger, [38:10] which I've been expecting all along, there's all this talk [38:13] of like nationalization [38:14] and the government should just seize it. [38:15] Come on folks here, you're yo, [38:17] you're yo-yoing from like the most extreme anti-regulatory. [38:22] If you look at us the wrong way, [38:23] you're destroying the industry to, you know, [38:25] this completely communist, [38:26] the government should grab it all. [38:28] We, we need, we, we need a more, [38:30] we need a more sensible, moderate approach. [38:33] That's the one we've been favoring all along [38:35] because we've, we've understood the [38:36] power of this technology. [38:38] We're not panicking, we're not denying it. [38:41] We see the smooth exponential [38:42] and we're responding to it appropriately. [38:51] The reaction to AI right now, it's intense. [38:56] Anthropic has built this really loyal following. [38:59] There are some people who just love what they stand for, [39:01] but there've also been protests right outside their office. [39:05] There's a lot of anxiety, a lot of confusion, [39:07] there's some real anger right now about what's happening [39:12] and it actually feels like it's escalating. [39:15] Artificial intelligence is [39:18] the next industrial revolution. Whoa. [39:25] If you look at the data, [39:27] people are more concerned than excited [39:29] about what's going on. [39:31] They think the risks outweigh the benefits [39:33] and the truth is, if you talk to the people [39:35] who are building this, [39:37] even they will tell you they don't fully know [39:40] how it's all going to play out. [39:45] How do you think about the weight of this moment? [39:47] I worry that something will go wrong. [39:50] You know, are we doing literally everything we can? [39:52] We're certainly trying our best, [39:54] we're certainly trying very hard. [39:55] What I want is to create a situation where if this set [39:58] of people can't do it, it couldn't be done. [40:00] You can't guarantee success, [40:01] but maybe you can guarantee that [40:04] It's getting personal. [40:05] Sam Altman's home has been attacked. [40:08] How is that affecting you? [40:10] It was really scary to read that. [40:11] I mean, it was, we were obviously extremely relieved that he [40:15] and his family were okay in general. [40:17] I think this is a time, you know, technologically, [40:20] politically where unfortunately there's just a lot more [40:23] rhetoric and, and words that I think can lead to, [40:26] to bad outcomes and bad things happening. [40:29] I hope that this is a topic we can all just debate, [40:31] you know, as peacefully as possible. [40:34] It was scary to me too. [40:35] I mean, you know, this is like a, a less savory aspect [40:38] of the exponential, right? [40:39] That as AI gets more [40:41] and more of, of a big thing like, you know, [40:43] it becomes just such a big deal to society. [40:46] There's more attention on it. [40:48] There's been massive backlash against social media. [40:51] Countries are starting to ban it. Could that happen to AI? [40:55] I think it's, it's absolutely possible. [40:58] If the social media companies could go back in time [41:00] and see the world that they see today, [41:02] would they do anything differently? [41:04] I like to think the answer to that is yes. [41:06] I don't know if we sort of project some of the challenges [41:09] that the social media companies have faced [41:11] around child welfare, mental health, election integrity, all [41:15] of these topics we're really lucky that we're we're second. [41:19] We view it as our job to try [41:20] and proactively think about all [41:22] of the things that could go wrong. [41:24] Because if we don't, who's going to, [41:25] You know, I don't know that they actually set out [41:28] to do the right thing or make the world a better place. [41:30] And so I don't think if they were going back, [41:33] they would even knowing what they do, [41:34] and they certainly should do things differently. [41:36] I don't know if they actually will, but we can't. [41:39] This is why we're trying [41:40] to get this right the first time instead of waiting [41:43] for things to go wrong, then scrambling [41:46] to justify why it's all okay. [41:48] The main way I could see a AI being, you know, banned [41:52] or blocked is if something really went wrong [41:54] and if something really went wrong, [41:55] then maybe it deserves to be, [41:56] You have technologists saying it's gonna be amazing [42:00] and others saying it could be awful. [42:02] Where are you on that spectrum? [42:04] I hope for the best, but plan for the worst. [42:07] For me, this is the most important work I've ever done. [42:10] For some people it feels like this is the last job [42:13] because this is sort of the, it could mean the end of work [42:16] and I think for other people it's, you know, [42:18] like maybe it's not the last job, [42:20] but it's existential to get this right. [42:23] And so there's just this, this kind of burden. [42:25] If the impacts could be as significant [42:28] as we're talking about, as significant [42:30] as Anthropic has warned about, [42:32] what responsibility do you think Anthropic has [42:35] to cushion the blow? [42:37] What do you owe the people whose lives you've upended? [42:43] I think our view has always been, [42:45] we ultimately are responsible as an industry, the industry [42:48] that's developing this technology for thinking through what [42:52] are the risks, what are the bad things that could happen? [42:55] And if some of those things come to pass, [42:57] what is our role in helping to fix them? [42:59] That is our job, right? [43:01] We should not just say, well, we were just trying [43:03] to grow the product and suddenly there's an entire [43:05] generation of young women who have eating disorders [43:09] or who have mental health problems [43:11] because whoops, we were just trying to grow the product. [43:13] That's not the stance [43:14] that I think any technology company should take. [43:16] I don't think that's the stance that we're trying to take [43:19] For a company whose identity is so wrapped up in, [43:22] We want to do this right, [43:23] We exist as a AI safety company. [43:25] How can we just help all of this go? Well, [43:27] It can be hard to understand why Anthropic is pushing [43:30] so hard to advance AI while being [43:32] so upfront about the dangers. In his essays, [43:36] Dario lays out what the end game looks like if everything [43:39] goes right with ai, a utopian future where machines [43:42] and humans work side by side AI, [43:45] an inevitable force steered toward prosperity rather than [43:48] catastrophe to mitigate the devastation of job loss. [43:53] He proposes solutions like universal basic income [43:56] and progressive taxation of AI companies. [44:00] But as the Amodeis confront the messy realities of power, [44:03] politics, and profit, the real test is whether [44:06] that founding mission can survive the [44:08] scale of what they're building. [44:11] Google started with the motto, don't be evil. [44:14] A founding promise the company quietly retired as it grew. [44:19] You are building something incredibly powerful [44:22] and stand to gain enormously from it. [44:25] Why should we trust you? [44:26] I think starting from a position of distrust, you know, [44:29] if you don't know anything about, [44:31] if you don't know anything about [44:32] philanthropic, it's pretty rational. [44:33] I think Silicon Valley has lost a lot of the world's trust [44:36] and kind of has to re-earn it, [44:38] and the message, you know, we're trying to send is, [44:41] we're actually different and, [44:42] and that has to be earned in things that we actually do. [44:46] I understand one of your favorite books is The Making [44:48] of the Atomic Bomb. [44:49] That is correct. Do you see parallels [44:51] between yourself and Oppenheimer? [44:52] The figure I most identified with was Leo Szilard [44:56] who was the one who first had the idea [44:58] that there could be a chain reaction. [45:01] Look, my view is we're, we're not gonna get through this [45:04] with like larger than life personalities [45:06] or like figures who try and be at the center of everything. [45:09] In some ways, I actually see Oppenheimer as a failure case, as [45:13] what should not happen. [45:14] There's a lot of powerful actors who have interests here, [45:17] and the only way it's gonna end well [45:19] for everyone is if there is some, there's basically checks [45:23] and balances everywhere. [45:24] You've said there's roughly a 10 to 25% chance [45:28] of civilization collapse, that is not insignificant. [45:33] Is there a scenario where it's something [45:35] that Anthropic built, that caused that? [45:38] I mean, I certainly hope not. [45:40] My view is that that probability comes from the very [45:44] straightforward recipe of the technology, the existence [45:47] of many countries in the world. [45:49] The existence of many companies within an economy [45:51] and new ones created. [45:53] If the void is isn't filled, like that's a dilemma [45:56] that we're in half of what we do within the company is try [45:59] and, you know, reduce the risk as much as we can, [46:01] but it's never gonna be zero. [46:03] Suppose there are a bunch of, you know, [46:05] airline companies out there [46:06] and you're like, well, I'm gonna make an [46:07] airline company that's safer. [46:08] It can both be the case that, you know, [46:11] your airline company is 10 times safer than all the other [46:13] airline companies. [46:15] But if someone comes [46:16] and asks you, like, can you guarantee [46:18] that your airplane will never crash? [46:20] I mean, how could you, how could you possibly, [46:22] But if there was a 25% chance of an airplane crashing, [46:25] you wouldn't get on that plane. [46:26] That's right. 25% is too high. [46:28] We're trying to make that probability much, much lower. [46:31] That's, that is, that is the goal. [47:01] How do you find your zen? How do you relax? [47:04] You know, it honestly, a lot [47:06] of it's just exposure to, to it. [47:08] You know, I sometimes I'll just like, you know, [47:10] I'll just take a weekend [47:11] and I'll like play some video games. [47:13] Sometimes with Daniela Me and my wife go to Italy. [47:15] Sometimes we have a horse there, so I'll just, [47:19] I'll just sit there next. [47:20] I'll just, I'll just look at the horse [47:21] and I'll be like, you know, Calypso, who's her horse like, [47:25] you know, she doesn't know about any of this, [47:27] like she's just a happy horse.