Trump Oil Sanctions Push Cuba's Socialist Economy Toward Collapse

What's Choking Cuba's Economy — Bloomberg Originals

Bloomberg Originals

U.S. oil blockades and targeted indictments have severed foreign energy lifelines to Cuba, forcing Havana to permit private enterprise while plunging the island into severe power blackouts and humanitarian distress.

AI-assisted summary of What's Choking Cuba's Economy — original source. Check the original for full context.

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## Background Published by Bloomberg Originals on YouTube on July 03, 2026, this video examines the severe economic crisis currently gripping Cuba. According to the page description, Donald Trump's blockade has caused severe shortages of fuel, food, and medicine, raising questions about whether Cuba's authoritarian government will succumb to US pressure or transition from socialism toward capitalism.

## TL;DR Cuba is experiencing an unprecedented economic breakdown marked by widespread fuel shortages, blackouts, and the collapse of essential public services like healthcare and the traditional ration card system. US pressure, including threats of secondary sanctions on oil suppliers and indictments of Cuban leadership, has exacerbated the island's isolation following the loss of Venezuelan crude. In response, the Cuban government has approved minor economic measures allowing over 9,200 private small businesses to operate, while the South Florida diaspora provides critical humanitarian lifelines amid persistent risks and fear of military conflict.

## Atmosphere & style The video carries a somber, urgent, and analytical tone, balancing rigorous economic breakdown with deeply human stories of daily survival. Through vivid accounts of failing hospitals, silent airport runways, and local business owners navigating hyperinflation, the narrative conveys a palpable sense of exhaustion and anxiety. It feels like an immersive, sober investigation into a nation on the brink, caught between relentless geopolitical pressure and the quiet resilience of its people.

## Key takeaways - [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) Cuba faces a critical economic crisis fueled by fuel shortages, electrical blackouts, and trade embargos. - [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) US foreign policy has maintained a hardline approach toward Cuba, including an indictment against former President Raúl Castro to pursue political transition. - [02:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=123s) The loss of foreign energy patrons, particularly Venezuelan oil shipments, triggered a severe breakdown in Cuba's power grid. - [02:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=123s) Threats of secondary US sanctions prompted Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to halt oil exports to Cuba. - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) Fuel scarcity creates massive logistical bottlenecks, preventing humanitarian aid and basic goods from reaching populations in need. - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) Public services and healthcare have severely deteriorated, marked by growing surgical waitlists and rising infant mortality rates. - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) The historic 'libreta' ration system has largely collapsed under high inflation, leaving basic staples unaffordable. - [04:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=294s) Tourism, historically a major revenue generator, has dropped significantly due to airline flight cancellations caused by jet fuel shortages. - [04:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=294s) To generate foreign currency, Cuba exports medical labor through international doctor brigades, earning billions annually. - [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) In response to state shortfalls, Cuba has permitted over 9,200 micro, small, and medium private enterprises ('mipymes') to operate. - [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) Structural barriers and a lack of legal guarantees for property rights and profit repatriation continue to deter major investment. - [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) The Cuban diaspora provides a crucial economic lifeline by using platforms like Katapulk to supply essential goods and fuel to relatives. - [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) US-Cuba foreign policy remains heavily influenced by South Florida politics and hardline exile perspectives.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) Deepening Crises and US Escalation

Cuba's geopolitical standing has long exceeded its geographical size, positioning the island just 90 miles off the coast of Florida as a focal point of Cold War politics and modern US foreign policy. Since the 1960s revolution, the island has been under a broad trade embargo enforced by the United States, while remaining strictly under the control of the Cuban Communist Party. Today, the single-party system—which maintains total control over the military, legislature, and broad society—faces a severe economic breakdown as its foundational socialist model runs out of momentum and essential resources.

The island faces unprecedented human suffering driven by critical shortages of fuel, severe electrical grid blackouts, and widespread civil unrest. Under Donald Trump's administration, Washington has maintained a hardline posture, unsealing an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro to signal its intent to pursue regime change. With options ranging across the board regarding potential interventions, the US crackdown has exacerbated an already fragile state of affairs.

- **Geographic Proximity:** Located 90 miles south of Florida, Cuba served historically as a haven for American tourists during Prohibition and later as a strategic platform for US adversaries. - **Indictment of Leadership:** The US Department of Justice unsealed an indictment targeting former Cuban President Raúl Castro. - **Diaspora Aspirations:** Over two million Cubans residing abroad express a strong desire to see their homeland move toward prosperity and political transition.

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[02:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=123s) Loss of Allied Oil and the Energy Collapse

Cuba's history is defined by periods of extreme economic vulnerability following the loss of foreign patrons. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the island lost its primary economic benefactor. In the early 2000s, Fidel Castro established a pivotal political and economic alliance with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, securing a steady supply of crude and refined oil products to power Cuba's electrical grid. However, foreign oil shipments have precipitously dropped in recent years. Even when combined with domestic production of roughly 40,000 barrels per day, total supply falls far short of the volume needed to maintain normal economic function.

The geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically when US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, cutting off Cuba's principal oil lifeline. While nations like Russia and Mexico occasionally provided supplementary shipments, President Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions in late January against any country supplying oil to Cuba. Fearing catastrophic economic retaliation against her own country, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum halted oil shipments to the island, effectively sealing Cuba's energy blockade.

- **Domestic Oil Production:** Cuba produces approximately 40,000 barrels of oil a day, which is severely insufficient for daily operations. - **Sanctions Threat:** US sanctions threats forced Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to cease oil exports to Cuba. - **Grid Deterioration:** The loss of Venezuelan crude eliminated the primary fuel source keeping Cuba's domestic power grid operational.

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[03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) Humanitarian Fallout and Deteriorating Public Services

International observers have widely criticized the US oil blockade, labeling the sanctions strategy as inhumane and illegal under international standards. The humanitarian consequences continue to deepen, severely impacting the island's health sector—historically a primary source of national pride. Surgical waitlists have lengthened dramatically, infant mortality rates are rising, and basic medical supplies remain critically scarce.

Attempting to distribute humanitarian aid and food shipments across the island has proved almost impossible due to the lack of gasoline required for logistics and transport. Consequently, the limited fuel supplies that do enter the country are largely seized by the government rather than reaching vulnerable populations. The legacy *libreta* (ration card system), which historically guaranteed basic provisions of rice, chicken, and eggs, has systematically broken down. While essential items occasionally appear in markets, hyperinflation renders them unaffordable for average citizens.

> "The surgery wait list has grown. Infant mortality is rising. Attempts to bring in humanitarian aid and food from places like Mexico is very slow... when you have no gasoline to distribute those things on the island, it's also difficult to get those things into the hands of the people that need them."

- **Medical Sector Impact:** Surgical delays and rising infant mortality mark a severe decline in Cuba's healthcare system. - **Logistics Bottlenecks:** Fuel shortages prevent aid brought into ports from being transported inland to local communities. - **Rationing Failure:** The traditional government ration card system can no longer guarantee staple goods like eggs, rice, and poultry.

---

[04:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=294s) Economic Stagnation, Inflation, and Tourism Collapse

Local business owners, such as restaurant and grocery operator Juan Carlos Blain, struggle daily to navigate severe product shortages and skyrocketing costs. Inflation in Cuba reached a peak of roughly 71% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Official state data reported an inflation rate of 14% in 2025, but independent economists estimate that actual price growth remains near peak pandemic levels.

Tourism, historically a pillar of the Cuban economy, has experienced a devastating decline. Following President Barack Obama's historic visit in 2016 to normalize bilateral relations, foreign visitor arrivals peaked. However, the pandemic halted travel, and the ongoing jet fuel crisis forced commercial airlines to cancel flights into Havana. Hotel closures are widespread across the island, and foreign credit card processing services have been suspended. To generate hard currency, the government relies heavily on medical exports—deploying over 24,000 doctors abroad in medical brigades, generating upwards of $4 billion annually, previously exchanged in part for subsidized Venezuelan oil.

| Indicator / Sector | Peak / Historical Figure | Current Reality / Impact | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **Official Inflation** | 71% (Pandemic Peak) | Reported 14% in 2025, though real rates hover near peak levels. | | **Tourism Sector** | Record high arrivals post-2016 Obama visit | Lowest non-COVID arrivals in two decades; hotels closed. | | **Medical Brigades** | Over 24,000 doctors deployed abroad | Generates over $4 billion annually in foreign currency. |

---

[06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) Emergence of Small Private Enterprises

Unlike other communist nations, Cuba has resisted structural market reforms, remaining a central state-run economy. However, facing economic necessity, the Cuban government has increasingly permitted micro, small, and medium-sized private enterprises (*mipymes*) to operate. Cuban citizens have demonstrated incredible adaptability, leading to a visible rise in private enterprise across various sectors.

The government reports that there are now over 9,200 registered small and medium businesses operating on the island. This private sector employs a growing proportion of the national workforce. Additionally, the government has passed over 170 economic measures to attract foreign investment and encourage the Cuban diaspora to invest in small domestic businesses. However, serious structural barriers remain: doing business still requires interacting with the state, and the legal framework provides no firm guarantees for property rights, asset protection, or profit repatriation.

- **Private Sector Growth:** Official figures count over 9,200 small and medium-sized private businesses operating in Cuba. - **Economic Reforms:** Over 170 economic measures have been approved by the state to open paths for foreign and private capital. - **Investment Risks:** Analysts warn that investing remains highly risky due to the absence of legal guarantees protecting private property and profits.

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[08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) Diaspora Contributions and South Florida Geopolitics

In response to state shortfalls, the Cuban exile community has become an indispensable lifeline for the island's population. Entrepreneurs like Hugo Cancio operate platforms such as *Katapulk*, an online marketplace that allows the diaspora to purchase food, consumer products, and mobile credit for relatives in Cuba. Leveraging exemptions in US Commerce Department export controls for humanitarian and consumer goods, Katapulk handles 1,500 to 2,000 orders daily across a catalog of 33,000 products, even shipping containers of natural gas to the island. However, large-scale capital investments will remain sidelined until Cuba establishes robust legal protections for investors.

Simultaneously, South Florida politics heavily shapes US-Cuba policy. Political figures like Florida Senator Marco Rubio, born to Cuban immigrant parents, embody the hardline exile consensus seeking decisive political change in Havana. Political analysts note that driving a political transition in Cuba could bolster Rubio's national profile ahead of future Republican presidential primaries. Meanwhile, many Cubans express deep anxiety over potential military conflict between the US and Cuba, urging a negotiated resolution to end the humanitarian crisis rather than an armed confrontation that would endanger relatives on the island.

> "I personally, and a lot of Cubans, don't want this direct military confrontation with the United States. That'll be really sad... I hope and will do everything within my powers to where, you know, my adoptive country and my native country comes to terms and negotiates an end to this humanitarian crisis."

- **Katapulk Logistics:** Processes between 1,500 and 2,000 daily orders of consumer products financed by the Cuban diaspora. - **Export Control Exemptions:** US regulations permit specified shipments of food, consumer goods, and natural gas containers directly to the island. - **Electoral Influence:** The South Florida Cuban-American voting block has played a central role in shaping Republican Party electoral strategy and foreign policy since 2000.

## Notable quotes > [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) The surgery wait list has grown. Infant mortality is rising. Attempts to bring in humanitarian aid and food from places like Mexico is very slow... when you have no gasoline to distribute those things on the island, it's also difficult to get those things into the hands of the people that need them.

> [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) I personally, and a lot of Cubans, don't want this direct military confrontation with the United States. That'll be really sad... I hope and will do everything within my powers to where, you know, my adoptive country and my native country comes to terms and negotiates an end to this humanitarian crisis.

## Mentioned Bloomberg Originals, Donald Trump, Raúl Castro, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro, Claudia Sheinbaum, Juan Carlos Blain, Barack Obama, Hugo Cancio, Marco Rubio, Katapulk, Cuban Communist Party, US Department of Justice, US Commerce Department, Republican Party, Cuba, Havana, Florida, South Florida, Mexico, Russia, United States

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8)

中文简报

特朗普石油制裁令古巴社会主义经济濒临崩溃 美国的石油封锁与针对性起诉切断了古巴的外部能源命脉，迫使哈瓦那当局允许私营企业发展，同时也让该岛陷入严重停电危机与人道主义困境。 古巴正经历前所未有的经济崩溃，其主要表现为广泛的燃料短缺、断电，以及医疗保健和传统配给卡系统等基本公共服务的瘫痪。在失去委内瑞拉原油供应后，来自美国的压力——包括对石油供应商实施次级制裁的威胁以及对古巴领导层的起诉——进一步加剧了该岛国的孤立境遇。面对危机，古巴政府批准了小幅度的经济举措，允许超过9,200家私营小微企业运营；与此同时，在持续的风险和对军事冲突的担忧之中，南佛罗里达州的海外侨民群体正在为其提供关键的人道主义援助通道。 在燃料短缺、电力中断和贸易禁运的共同冲击下，古巴正面临严重的经济危机。 (0:01) 美国外交政策对古巴保持强硬路线，包括起诉前总统劳尔·卡斯特罗（Raúl Castro）以促成政治过渡。 (0:01) 失去外国能源支持（尤其是委内瑞拉的石油运输）引发了古巴电网的严重瘫痪。 (2:03) 受到美国次级制裁的威胁，墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆（Claudia Sheinbaum）暂停了对古巴的石油出口。 (2:03) 燃料短缺造成了巨大的物流瓶颈，导致人道主义援助和生活必需品无法送达有需要的民众手中。 (3:25)

Reading summary

Cuba's state-run economy has reached a breaking point as the collapse of external oil alliances and tightening United States sanctions compound chronic domestic failures, driving power grid failures and severe humanitarian hardship across the island. Loss of Foreign Patrons and Energy Blockade (2:03) Cuba's economic stability has historically depended on foreign benefactors, transitioning from Soviet subsidies in the twentieth century to an energy alliance established in the early 2000s with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. That arrangement fractured dramatically after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, terminating Cuba's primary source of imported crude. While Cuba extracts roughly 40,000 barrels of oil per day domestically, this output covers only a fraction of its operational baseline, resulting in extensive power grid blackouts. Efforts to secure alternative fuel supplies have been cut off by Washington's diplomatic and economic pressure. In late January, President Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions against any nation exporting oil to Cuba. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum halted planned shipments to avoid economic penalties, effectively sealing the island off from regional fuel alternatives and deepening the energy paralysis. Humanitarian Consequences and Logistics Breakdown (3:25) The energy shortfall has triggered severe breakdowns across Cuba's public infrastructure. The healthcare sector, historically a centerpiece of state achievement, faces extended surgical waitlists, mounting infant mortality rates, and acute deficits of basic medical supplies. Although critics have labeled the US oil blockade inhumane under international norms, the Cuban government has exacerbated local conditions by seizing limited fuel imports rather than routing them to civil aid. Logistical gridlock has immobilized domestic food distribution. When humanitarian shipments from countries like Mexico reach port facilities, fuel deficits prevent goods from reaching interior communities. Concurrently, the legacy ration card system (libreta), designed to guarantee basic rations of eggs, rice, and chicken, has functionally collapsed. While consumer staples occasionally appear in open markets, rampant price increases make them unaffordable for ordinary citizens. Macroeconomic Stagnation, Inflation, and Tourism Collapse (4:54) Cuba's internal economy remains severely constrained by price instability and hard-currency shortages. Following an inflation peak of approximately 71% during the COVID-19 pandemic, state records reported price growth of 14% in 2025; however, independent economists calculate that true inflation remains close to pandemic-era highs. Small business operators face continuous product deficits alongside volatile procurement costs. Tourism, once a vital generator of foreign exchange that peaked following President Barack Obama's 2016 visit, has slumped to its lowest non-pandemic level in two decades. Jet fuel shortages have forced commercial airlines to suspend Havana flights, while international card payment processing remains blocked and hotels sit shuttered. To compensate, the state relies on foreign medical missions, stationing over 24,000 doctors abroad to generate roughly $4 billion annually in revenue. Private Sector Adaptation and Diaspora Support (6:30) Faced with prolonged shortages, the state has permitted over 9,200 micro, small, and medium-sized private enterprises (mipymes) to incorporate, enacting over 170 measures to court capital. However, market observers caution that private capital remains constrained because Cuban law lacks formal safeguards for private property rights, asset protection, and foreign profit repatriation. The Cuban diaspora has consequently emerged as a vital supply line. Under specific US Commerce Department humanitarian exemptions, online platforms like Katapulk fulfill 1,500 to 2,000 daily diaspora orders for food, consumer goods, and natural gas containers. Meanwhile, US policy continues to be heavily guided by South Florida political dynamics, where leaders such as Senator Marco Rubio back regime-change strategies, even as residents express fear that confrontation could escalate beyond sanctions into armed conflict. Cuba's economic trajectory remains paralyzed between an unyielding single-party administration lacking market guarantees and an escalating US sanctions regime aimed at political transition. Whether the mounting humanitarian emergency leads to direct confrontation or forces a negotiated compromise between Washington and Havana remains the island's central unresolved dilemma.

精炼阅读摘要

彭博原创（Bloomberg Originals）指出，古巴正陷入由外部能源供给链断裂、美国极限施压以及国内中央集权体制结构性失灵共同引发的空前经济危机与人道主义灾难，其长期维系的社会主义经济模式已面临动能与资源的双重枯竭。 外部能源命脉中断与电网全线崩溃 (2:03) 古巴的经济稳定性历来高度依赖外国赞助。自20世纪90年代初苏联解体后失去主要经济依靠以来，古巴在21世纪初依靠菲德尔·卡斯特罗与委内瑞拉前总统查韦斯建立的政治经济盟友关系，长期由委内瑞拉提供原油和成品油以维持国家运转。然而，随着美军抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子，古巴的核心原油供给被彻底切断。尽管古巴本土每日开采约4万桶原油，但这远远无法满足日常经济运转的基本需求。 面对供给缺口，俄罗斯和墨西哥曾偶尔提供补充石油，但在特朗普政府于1月下旬发出次级制裁威胁后，墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆（Claudia Sheinbaum）因担忧本国遭受严重经济报复，被迫停止向该岛运输石油。这一系列事件实质上形成了针对古巴的能源封锁，导致全岛电力系统陷入不可逆的恶化，大规模断电频发，社会生产活动陷入瘫痪。 医疗与配给制瓦解加剧人道主义危机 (3:25) 国际观察人士广泛批评美国的石油封锁政策，指责该制裁手段依据国际标准属于非人道且违法的行为。严重的燃料危机直接重创了古巴长期引以为傲的公共医疗体系，导致医院外科手术等待名单急剧延长、婴儿死亡率持续上升，以及基础医疗物资发生灾难性匮乏。 更为严峻的是，燃料极度匮乏导致全岛物流配送陷入瘫痪。尽管外界尝试从墨西哥等地输入人道主义援助和食品，但由于港口缺乏汽油向内陆分流运输，有限的燃料更被政府优先扣押，导致急需救济的弱势群体难以获得物资。古巴数十年来保障鸡蛋、大米和鸡肉基础供应的口粮配给证体系（libreta）已系统性失灵，而在通货膨胀失控的背景下，即便市场上偶尔出现必需品，普通民众也根本无力承担。 旅游与创汇支柱坍塌伴随高通胀阴影 (4:54) 在流通领域，以餐饮和杂货经营者胡安·卡洛斯·布兰（Juan Carlos Blain）为代表的本土小微商业正承受着物资枯竭与成本飞涨的双重挤压。古巴官方统计报告显示2025年通胀率为14%，但独立经济学家评估指出，实际物价涨幅仍徘徊在新冠疫情期间约71%的历史峰值附近，官方数据并未反映真实市场物价水平。 作为经济核心支柱的旅游业则遭遇断崖式滑坡。自2016年美国总统奥巴马历史性访古推动关系正常化并创下访客纪录后，疫情与随之而来的航空煤油短缺彻底摧毁了复苏势头。商业航空公司因燃油危机纷纷取消飞往哈瓦那的航班，岛内饭店普遍停业，外国信用卡结算服务亦被暂停。当前古巴政府极度依赖派遣超过2.4万名海外医疗队成员换取硬通货，每年带来逾40亿美元收入，但传统上以医疗资源置换委内瑞拉补贴石油的机制已无法持续。 私营经济局部松绑与制度性产权缺失 (6:30) 面对财政与民生崩溃的压力，长期抵制结构性市场化改革的古巴政府被迫在边际上放松管制，允许微型、中小型私营企业（mipymes）设立与发展。古巴民众展现出了极强的应变生存能力，官方数据显示目前岛内已有超过9200家注册的中小微私企，吸纳了越来越多的社会就业人口。 为缓解资金枯竭，古巴政府陆续通过了170多项旨在吸引外资和鼓励海外侨民投资本土小企业的经济举措。然而，经济分析人士强调，岛内的营商环境仍存在根本性的体制障碍：所有商业活动仍受制于单一政党和庞大国家官僚系统的严格管控，且法律层面完全缺乏对私有产权、资产安全和利润合法汇出境外的明确制度保障，这使得大规模资本投资仍持观望态度。 侨民物资生命线与政权更迭的地缘博弈 (8:55) 面对国家分配体制的失灵，拥有200多万人口的海外古巴流亡社群成为维系本土亲属生存的生命线。部分企业家利用美国商务部关于人道物资与消费品的出口豁免政策搭建跨境网络，例如Hugo Cancio运营的在线商城Katapulk，每日处理多达1500至2000笔海外亲友代购订单，供应多达3.3万种日常商品，甚至合法向岛内运输天然气集装箱以缓解能源匮乏。 与此相对，南佛罗里达州的古巴裔选民群体持续对华盛顿的对古战略产生深远影响。美国司法部公布对古巴前总统劳尔·卡斯特罗的起诉书，展现出强硬施压意图；而以佛罗里达州参议员马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）为代表的强硬派政治人物，亦将推动哈瓦那政权更迭视为重塑自身政治声望的重要途径。但在严酷的地缘博弈下，许多古巴民众对潜在的美古军事对抗表达了深切恐惧，强烈呼吁通过谈判解决当前的人道主义危机，避免激化为毁灭性的武装冲突。 本期节目展现了古巴在外部极限施压、能源盟友断裂与内部中央管制僵化夹击下的多维崩溃图景。尽管微型私企与海外侨民网络维系着基本的生存底线，但在美国强硬政权更迭诉求与古巴产权制度壁垒的双重约束下，这场涉及千万人的人道危机缺乏快速政治和解的机制保障，该国仍深陷制度瓦解与地缘对抗的未决困局中。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 本期视频由彭博社旗下的 Bloomberg Originals 于 2026 年 7 月 21 日发布在 YouTube 平台。视频简介指出，唐纳德·特朗普对古巴实施的全面封锁引发了燃料、粮食与药品的极度匮乏，节目深入探讨了在美方极限施压下，古巴政府是否会被迫屈服，以及哈瓦那在重建崩溃经济的过程中是否会逐步背离社会主义并转向资本主义。 ## TL;DR 本片深入剖析了古巴在失去委内瑞拉石油生命线并面临美国对第三方运油国的二级制裁威胁下，所陷入的系统性能源枯竭与经济停摆危机。全国性大停电导致医疗体系濒临崩溃、标志性的食品配给制名存实亡，实际通胀逼近历史极值，严重冲击普通平民的生计。面对存亡关头，古巴政府被迫试水有限的市场化改革，批准成立数千家私营中小企业并向海外侨资招商，但产权保护与外汇管制的制度性短板令资本望而却步。与此同时，以跨境电商为代表的民间侨民救援正尽力填补人道物资真空，但受制于南佛罗里达州古巴裔选民所塑造的对古强硬路线，美古博弈深陷死局，平民家庭承受着沉重的地缘对抗代价。 ## Atmosphere & style 全片弥漫着冷峻、沉重且充满紧迫感的调查纪录片氛围，彭博社专业严谨的宏观数据透视与一线深度的纪实镜头形成了极具张力的交织。画面在华盛顿冷酷的起诉文书、地缘博弈推演，与哈瓦那陷入黑暗的街区、物资告罄的医院及艰难求生的个体户之间反复穿插，传递出强烈的窒息感与历史宿命感。受访侨民面对镜头动情呼吁避免战火、挂念岛内亲人的真情流露，更为这种理性的地缘政治剖析注入了深沉的人道悲悯与忧虑情绪。 ## Bulletin - [02:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=123s) 美国进一步收紧针对古巴的全面石油封锁，在切断委内瑞拉油源后更通过二级制裁威胁迫使墨西哥叫停对古供油，导致古巴电网与物流陷入系统性崩溃。 - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) 古巴境内遭遇严峻的人道危机与恶性通胀，传统“粮本”配给制度解体，实际市场物价涨幅逼近疫情时期约71%的历史峰值。 - [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) 为缓解危机，哈瓦那密集批准超170项经济改革并放宽外商及侨民投资，全岛已注册超9,200家私营中小企业，但仍受制于缺乏产权保护与利润出境通道。 - [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) 美国对古极限施压路线深受南佛罗里达州古巴裔保守选民影响，但海外侨民对潜在军事冲突深感担忧，呼吁通过外交谈判化解危机。 ## Key takeaways - [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) 美古冷战历史宿怨延续至今，特朗普政府将古巴视作国家安全威胁并解密起诉劳尔·卡斯特罗，对哈瓦那施加极限施压与战略震慑。 - [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) 全岛陷入极其严峻的燃油枯竭与大面积停电状态，严重危及航空、交通运输以及基本社会生产活动。 - [02:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=123s) 古巴本土原油日产量仅约4万桶，长期严重依赖委内瑞拉的低价原油补给来维持老旧电网运行。 - [02:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=123s) 美方强势介入委内瑞拉局势，直接终结了维系古巴数十年的核心能源生命线。 - [02:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=123s) 因忌惮特朗普政府的连带二级制裁威胁，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆被迫停止向古巴运输原油，外部转运渠道彻底被掐断。 - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) 燃料与电力匮乏引发连锁人道主义灾难，公共医疗体系急剧恶化，药品告罄、手术延宕且婴儿死亡率出现反弹。 - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) 即使有部分人道救援物资运抵，也因岛内燃油告罄导致港口货物积压瘫痪、无法分发至基层平民手中。 - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) 维系国家基本保障的“粮本”配给制走向瓦解，官方名义通胀率为14%，但经济学家测算真实通胀率已接近71%的高峰。 - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) 受航班取消、航油断供与疫情影响，古巴入境游客量跌至近20年非疫情期间历史新低，高端酒店与支付系统大面积停摆。 - [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) 曾拥有超2.4万人、年创汇超40亿美元的海外援外医疗代表团支柱模式，在全方位封锁下已难以平衡外汇收支亏空。 - [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) 古巴长期未曾进行系统性市场化改革，目前官方已批准注册超9,200家民营中小企业，推动私营部门在就业中发挥更大作用。 - [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) 古巴政府出台170多项经济改革措施并向海外侨民投资开闸，但因缺乏明确的私有产权法律保障与利润汇出渠道，国际资本多持观望态度。 - [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) 海外侨民创立的跨境电商平台（如Katapulk）利用美国人道主义例外条款向岛内输送食品和燃气罐，成为民间应急补给线。 - [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) 以马可·卢比奥为代表的南佛罗里达州古巴裔选民群体，自2000年以来一直是塑造美国对古强硬路线及政权更迭诉求的核心政治力量。 - [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) 许多拥有岛内直系亲属的海外侨民坚决反对走向军事对抗，呼吁美古双方重启外交对话以避免人道悲剧扩散。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) 历史宿怨与当前的全面制裁危机 冷战政治的阴影至今没有哪个国家比古巴体现得更为淋漓尽致。尽管古巴只是一个距离美国佛罗里达州以南仅90英里的加勒比岛国，但长期以来它在国际地缘政治舞台上的影响力始终“远超自身体量”，甚至成为美国敌对势力的前沿战略支点。回溯历史，美古之间基于地理邻近性一直维持着紧密的经济往来——在美国禁酒令时期，古巴甚至一度成为美国游客狂欢的避风港。然而，自20世纪60年代古巴革命爆发后不久，美国便对古巴实施了全面的贸易禁运。如今的古巴仍由古巴共产党一党执政，严格掌控着立法机构、军队以及社会运行的方方面面。 然而，孕育这个国家的社会主义理想如今正陷入绝境，整个国家“字面意义上耗尽了燃料”。随着美国进一步收紧针对古巴的石油封锁网络，古巴正面临极其严峻的航空燃油与燃料短缺，大面积停电与摇摇欲坠的经济引发了岛内前所未有的动荡与人道苦难。特朗普政府对古巴采取了极其强硬的施压路线，视其为长期的国家安全威胁，美国司法部甚至公布了针对古巴前领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗（Raúl Castro）的起诉书。美方此举向哈瓦那明确传递出“美国是动真格的”这一严厉信号，并声称解决古巴问题的“各种选项已摆上台面”。在这场剧烈动荡中，不仅岛内民众在煎熬中渴求改变，生活在海外的200多万古巴侨民也迫切希望看到故土迎来变革、走向繁荣。 - 美国司法部解密对劳尔·卡斯特罗的起诉书，彰显强硬升级信号。 - 全岛陷入瘫痪性停电与燃料耗尽危机，社会动荡与抗议频发。 - 超过200万海外古巴人密切关注局势，期盼制度变革与经济重生。 --- ### [02:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=123s) 能源生命线断绝：从委内瑞拉到墨西哥的石油封锁 危机与不确定性对古巴而言并不陌生。20世纪90年代初，苏联的解体曾让古巴失去了最主要的经济资助国，经济遭遇断崖式下跌。到了21世纪初，菲德尔·卡斯特罗与委内瑞拉总统乌戈·查韦斯建立了拉美现代史上最重要的政治与经济同盟之一。查韦斯向古巴承诺提供至关重要的战略支持，即源源不断的原油和成品油供应，以维系古巴严重依赖燃油的电网运转。然而，随着外部环境剧变，美方强势介入并逮捕马杜罗夫妇，古巴失去了这根维系数十年的委内瑞拉能源生命线，瞬间暴露出脆弱的生存底色。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 古巴能源与外汇依赖链条的断裂 accDescr: 展示古巴过去依靠委内瑞拉石油与自身医疗人员换汇，但在美国对委内瑞拉和第三国施压制裁后，导致能源供应和国内经济彻底停摆的过程。 subgraph S1["外部能源断供"] V["委内瑞拉石油援助<br/>（政权动荡后中断）"] M["墨西哥/俄罗斯转运<br/>（因制裁风险叫停）"] US["美国二级制裁威胁"] end subgraph S2["古巴国内资源"] D["本土石油产能<br/>（约4万桶/日，严重不足）"] MED["医疗代表团外包<br/>（援外换汇超40亿美元）"] end subgraph S3["系统性崩溃"] G["国家电网瘫痪<br/>（大范围轮番停电）"] T["交通与物流停摆<br/>（航油/汽油枯竭）"] H["人道主义危机<br/>（医疗挤兑与食品分发阻断）"] end US -.->|切断外部油源| V US -.->|威胁连带制裁| M V --> G M --> G D --> G G --> T T --> H ``` 长期以来，古巴自身的原油日产量仅维持在40,000桶左右，远不能满足国家正常运转的基本需求。以往在委内瑞拉供应减少时，俄罗斯和墨西哥偶尔会提供石油补给。但在2026年1月下旬，特朗普政府发出明确警告，将对任何向古巴运送石油的国家实施严厉制裁。面对巨大的经济与贸易连带风险，墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆（Claudia Sheinbaum）不得不做出痛苦抉择，停止向古巴运油。失去外部原油输入的古巴电网随即陷入灾难性崩溃。 - 古巴国内原油产量仅约每天4万桶，缺口极大，电网高度依赖进口重油。 - 委内瑞拉局势剧变直接终结了长期以来的低价石油补给。 - 墨西哥因忌惮美国二级制裁，被迫中止对古巴的石油援助协议。 --- ### [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) 人道主义困局：医疗崩溃、配给制解体与恶性通胀 国际社会普遍指责美方的极限封锁手段“既不人道也违反国际法”，而制裁最直接的代价正由古巴普通民众承担。最令人痛心的是古巴引以为傲的公共医疗体系正在急剧恶化。由于缺电少药，医院的外科手术排期无限期延长，全国婴儿死亡率出现明显反弹。尽管墨西哥等国尝试运送人道主义救援物资与食品，但由于古巴岛内极度匮乏汽油，这些援助物资往往积压在港口无法转运分发，真正急需救助的平民只能苦苦等待，有限的燃油和物资反而在体制内优先被政府部门调用。 与此同时，作为古巴社会保障基石的“粮本”（即国家保障供应大米、鸡肉、鸡蛋等必需品的食品配给制度）正在彻底瓦解。货架上并非完全没有商品，但价格已被恶性通胀推至平民无法承受的高位。经营餐馆与杂货铺的个体户胡安·卡洛斯·布莱恩（Juan Carlos Blain）坦言，物资短缺让普通生意步履维艰。官方公布的2025年通胀率虽为14%，但独立经济学家普遍认为，真实通胀率早已重返疫情期间近71%的峰值水平。 旅游业这一经济支柱同样遭受沉重打击。由于航油告罄，多国航空公司不得不取消飞往古巴的航班。回顾2016年巴拉克·奥巴马总统历史性访古后，古巴旅游业曾迎来爆发式繁荣，但疫情重创之后再未复苏；除去疫情封锁年份，古巴去年的入境游客数创下近二十年来的新低，大量高端酒店被迫关停，信用卡刷卡结算服务也全面停摆。过去古巴最核心的外汇支柱——派出超过24,000名医生组成的海外医疗代表团（每年曾为国家创汇超40亿美元，并直接换取委内瑞拉的石油配额），在如今的全面地缘封锁下也难以独力扭转全盘颓势。 - 医疗体系严重恶化，基础药品与手术耗材告罄，婴儿死亡率显著攀升。 - 官方统配物资体系“粮本”名存实亡，黑市与私营渠道物价暴涨。 - 通胀率名义数据为14%，实际市场物价涨幅逼近疫情时期约71%的历史高点。 - 2024–2025年国际游客接待量创下近20年来非疫情期间的历史最低谷。 - 援外医疗代表团规模曾超2.4万人，年创汇超40亿美元，如今维系艰难。 --- ### [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) 迟到的市场化实验：民营经济的崛起与体制性掣肘 面对经济全面窒息的现状，古巴领导层并非全无察觉。在所有现存的共产党执政国家中，古巴是唯一一个长期以来从未进行过系统性、实质性市场化改革的国家；此前它仅在危机倒逼下进行零星、反复的试探。如今，转向某种形式的“国家资本主义”被外界视为唯一出路，而在短期内，迅速成长的私营经济部门或许是挽救岛内生机的最后希望。古巴人展现出了惊人的生存韧性，哈瓦那官方数据显示，全岛目前已注册成立超过9,200家中小型私营企业（MSME/Pymes），私营部门在劳动力就业中的占比正显著提高。 为了解困，古巴政府密集批准了超过170项广泛的经济改革措施，不仅放宽国内私营经济的活动空间，还宣布向外商投资敞开大门，甚至史无前例地允许海外古巴侨民回国投资或持有岛内中小型企业。然而，在共产主义体制的底色下，“在古巴做生意本质上仍是与政府做生意”。法律界与投资界对此充满疑虑，许多分析人士直言：“在这种环境下投资古巴简直是愚蠢的”，因为古巴政府既无法提供清晰的私有财产权保护，也不能担保投资收益能够安全汇出，企业家的经营自主权随时面临政治干预的风险。 - 古巴官方已批准成立逾9,200家民营中小型企业，私营劳动力规模稳步攀升。 - 政府接连出台170多项经济改革举措，探索对外资和海外侨民资本解禁。 - 制度性短板依然致命：缺乏明确的私有产权法律保障与利润自由汇出通道。 --- ### [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) 海外侨民的补给通道与南佛罗里达政治博弈 在国家体制供应瘫痪的真空地带，海外古巴人社群成为了本土亲友的生命线。企业家乌戈·坎西奥（Hugo Cancio）创立的跨境电商平台“Katapulk”便是一个典型案例。依托美国商务部对古巴出口管制中的特定人道主义例外条款，Katapulk能够合规地将食品、日用品乃至手机话费充值直接配送给古巴岛内居民。坎西奥介绍，目前平台拥有超过33,000种在售商品，每天处理1,500至2,000个订单，并在古巴建立了庞大的地面物流配送团队，甚至开始用集装箱向岛内输送急需的罐装天然气。但坎西奥也承认，这种点对点的补给无法替代大型能源设施的修复，要让真正的大资本入场重建电网，“必须彻底改变游戏规则，建立保护投资的现代法律体系”。 与此同时，美国的对古政策深受其国内政治——特别是南佛罗里达州古巴裔选民的深刻塑造。“要讲清楚古巴的政治故事，就不能脱离南佛罗里达的政治背景。”出生于迈阿密古巴流亡家庭的马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）正是这一对古强硬路线的核心代表人物。这一群体始终坚信，除非推翻现有执政班底实现政权更迭，否则古巴体制绝无自我改良的可能。若能借此推动古巴剧变，卢比奥将成为其选民心中的“古巴解放者”，并一举锁定共和党未来总统初选中的领跑地位。毕竟自2000年大选以来，共和党在佛罗里达州的稳固政治胜利在很大程度上归功于南佛罗里达的古巴流亡者群体。 然而，在宏大的地缘政治叙事背后，普通家庭却承受着撕裂之苦。许多生活在海外的古巴人并不支持诉诸直接的军事对抗。一位受访的古巴裔侨民动情地表达了对局势滑向战争的深切忧虑：“在古巴的某个角落，生活着别人的母亲、别人的父亲，我那年仅19岁的小侄子就在古巴军队服役。爆发正面的军事冲突将是彻头彻尾的悲剧。”他呼吁自己的收养国（美国）与祖国（古巴）能够重回谈判桌，以务实对话尽早终结这座岛屿上正在蔓延的人道主义灾难。 - 跨境平台Katapulk上架超3.3万种商品，日均订单量达1,500至2,000单，填补民间物资空缺。 - 依据美国商务部例外许可，合规民营渠道获准向岛内输入基础食品与天然气罐。 - 南佛罗里达古巴裔选民自2000年以来一直是共和党在佛州胜选的关键基本盘。 - 侨民群体深切担忧全面军事冲突风险，呼吁通过外交谈判化解人道主义危机。 ## Notable quotes > [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) 远超自身体量 > [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) 字面意义上耗尽了燃料 > [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) 美国是动真格的 > [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=1s) 各种选项已摆上台面 > [03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=205s) 既不人道也违反国际法 > [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) 在古巴做生意本质上仍是与政府做生意 > [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=390s) 在这种环境下投资古巴简直是愚蠢的 > [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) 必须彻底改变游戏规则，建立保护投资的现代法律体系 — 乌戈·坎西奥 > [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) 要讲清楚古巴的政治故事，就不能脱离南佛罗里达的政治背景。 > [08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8&t=535s) 在古巴的某个角落，生活着别人的母亲、别人的父亲，我那年仅19岁的小侄子就在古巴军队服役。爆发正面的军事冲突将是彻头彻尾的悲剧。 — 受访古巴裔侨民 ## Mentioned 唐纳德·特朗普, 劳尔·卡斯特罗, 菲德尔·卡斯特罗, 乌戈·查韦斯, 尼古拉斯·马杜罗, 克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆, 胡安·卡洛斯·布莱恩, 巴拉克·奥巴马, 乌戈·坎西奥, 马可·卢比奥, 彭博社 (Bloomberg Originals), 古巴共产党, 美国司法部, 美国商务部, Katapulk, 古巴, 美国, 委内瑞拉, 墨西哥, 俄罗斯, 佛罗里达州, 哈瓦那 ## Video description Donald Trump’s blockade of Cuba, condemned by international groups, has caused shortages of fuel, food and medicine. Under threat from the US, will Cuba’s authoritarian government bend to his will? And as Havana seeks to rebuild a shattered economy, will it turn away from socialism and toward capitalism? Read more on Bloomberg.com: Cuba’s Bold Free-Market Turn Fails to Convince US It’s Ready to Change https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-02/cuba-economic-crisis-trump-unconvinced-by-free-market-reforms?srnd=undefined Watch more Weekly Docs: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLqq4LnWs3olXOhUOv4O6r-9OdWTQN83se Everything you need to know about the big topics shaping our world, direct from Bloomberg's global newsroom. #Cuba #Trump #economy -------- Like this video? Subscribe: http://www.youtube.com/Bloomberg?sub_confirmation=1 Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com for just $1.99 your first month: https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions?in_source=YoutubeOriginals Bloomberg Originals offers bold takes for curious minds on today’s biggest topics. Hosted by experts covering stories you haven’t seen and viewpoints you haven’t heard, you’ll discover cinematic, data-led shows that investigate the intersection of business and culture. Exploring every angle of climate change, technology, finance, sports and beyond, Bloomberg Originals is business as you’ve never seen it. Subscribe for business news, but not as you've known it: exclusive interviews, fascinating profiles, data-driven analysis, and the latest in tech innovation from around the world. Visit our partner channel Bloomberg News for global news and insight in an instant. [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0PnVLUeFI8)

Source quotes

[0:01] 远超自身体量 [0:01] 字面意义上耗尽了燃料 [0:01] 美国是动真格的 [0:01] 各种选项已摆上台面 [3:25] 既不人道也违反国际法 [6:30] 在古巴做生意本质上仍是与政府做生意 [6:30] 在这种环境下投资古巴简直是愚蠢的 [8:55] 乌戈·坎西奥: 必须彻底改变游戏规则，建立保护投资的现代法律体系 [8:55] 要讲清楚古巴的政治故事，就不能脱离南佛罗里达的政治背景。 [8:55] 受访古巴裔侨民: 在古巴的某个角落，生活着别人的母亲、别人的父亲，我那年仅19岁的小侄子就在古巴军队服役。爆发正面的军事冲突将是彻头彻尾的悲剧。

Source quotes

[3:25] The surgery wait list has grown. Infant mortality is rising. Attempts to bring in humanitarian aid and food from places like Mexico is very slow... when you have no gasoline to distribute those things on the island, it's also difficult to get those things into the hands of the people that need them. [8:55] I personally, and a lot of Cubans, don't want this direct military confrontation with the United States. That'll be really sad... I hope and will do everything within my powers to where, you know, my adoptive country and my native country comes to terms and negotiates an end to this humanitarian crisis.

Original transcript

[0:01] What's coming next for Cuba? [0:02] Capture and killed still an option? [0:04] I just can't tell you that we've [0:05] got options all over the map. [0:06] Perhaps no other nation epitomizes Cold War politics [0:10] more than Cuba. [0:11] When you look for a country that's, let's say, punched [0:14] above its weight on a global stage, [0:16] Cuba should be on the list. [0:17] Cuba and the United States by default [0:19] of their geography have always had some kind [0:23] of economic relationship. [0:25] When we had prohibition in the United States, [0:27] Cuba became a haven for American tourists. [0:31] Cuba is just 90 miles south of Florida. [0:33] It's in the heart of the Caribbean. [0:34] It's been seen as kind of a strategic platform [0:36] for US rivals. [0:38] The US has had a broad trade embargo on Cuba since shortly [0:42] after the revolution in the 1960s. [0:45] Cuba is ruled by a single party, [0:47] the Cuban Communist Party, [0:49] and it controls the legislature, controls the military, [0:51] controls all facets of society. [0:55] But the socialist idealism that birthed Cuba has ground [0:59] to a halt, literally running out of gas. [1:03] There is a dire jet fuel shortage in Cuba [1:05] as the US is moving to cut off the country's oil supply. [1:08] Crippling blackouts [1:09] and a teetering economy have sparked [1:11] to unrest on the island. [1:13] We have an unprecedented degree [1:15] of suffering on the island. [1:16] The Trump administration has taken a hard line. [1:19] Cuba has always posed a national security threat. [1:21] Tonight, the Justice Department unsealing an indictment [1:24] against former Cuban President Raul Castro. [1:26] Will Castro actually face this prosecution? [1:29] The message the indictment sends to the Cuban government [1:32] is that the US is serious. [1:34] Amid the upheaval, many are looking for change [1:38] and some see opportunity. [1:45] Two million plus Cubans that leave abroad. [1:48] They have a genuine desire to see their country prosper [1:51] and the people prosper [1:53] and move forward into a different direction. [2:03] Uncertainty and crisis are no strangers to Cuba. [2:07] Cuba was, you know, [2:08] reeling in the early '90s from the collapse of the USSR. [2:12] So they lost a massive benefactor. [2:14] Then in the early 2000s, Fidel Castro started one [2:18] of Latin America's most important political [2:20] and economic alliances with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. [2:24] Chavez vowed to support Cuba to help provide them with [2:28] what they needed, which in essence was a steady supply, [2:31] oil and refined products. [2:33] Oil powers Cuba's electrical grid. [2:36] The imported supply has steadily fallen. [2:39] Even when you add in the roughly 40,000 barrels [2:42] of domestic production a day, it's well short [2:45] of what's needed to function normally. [2:49] The US swooping in and snatching Maduro [2:52] and his wife out of bed was a complete game [2:55] changer for Cuba. [2:57] With Venezuelan oil gone, [2:58] Cuba quickly became more vulnerable. [3:01] In the past, Russia has supplied some oil and Mexico also. [3:04] But in late January, Trump threatened sanctions [3:09] on any nation that supplied Cuba with oil. [3:16] And [3:17] President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico decided [3:19] that was too great a risk to her own economy. [3:25] International voices are calling Trump's crackdown [3:28] inhumane and illegal. [3:30] The humanitarian consequences [3:33] as you might expect continue to, to deepen. [3:46] It is in particular impacting Cuba's health sector, [3:49] which was long a point of pride. [3:52] The surgery wait list has grown. Infant mortality is rising. [3:58] Attempts to bring in humanitarian aid [4:00] and food from places like Mexico is very slow. [4:04] And when you have no gasoline [4:05] to distribute those things on the island, [4:07] it's also difficult to get those things into the hands [4:09] of the people that need them. [4:10] Really, it's the Cuban government that ends up [4:12] with the fuel, with the goods. [4:27] Famous ration card that the, [4:28] the Cuban government always guaranteed people an allotted [4:30] amount of rice or chicken or eggs. [4:33] That's all breaking down. [4:40] And now what people are saying on the island is these [4:42] products are available. [4:43] They just simply can't afford them anymore. [4:54] Juan Carlos Blain runs a restaurant [4:56] and grocery that is struggling through the shortages. [5:10] Inflation in Cuba has been running very, very high. [5:12] It kind of peaked during the pandemic at about 71%. [5:15] It's at 14% in 2025 and those are the official figures. [5:19] But economists estimate it's really up here at [5:23] nearly pandemic levels. [5:28] Airlines have had to cancel their flights [5:30] because there's no jet fuel available on the island, so [5:32] that's of course hurt the tourism industry. [5:35] Tourism is a key pillar of the economy. [5:38] In 2016, President Barack Obama visited the island as part [5:42] of an attempt to normalize relations. [5:45] Look how visitors climbed, peaking just after that trip. [5:50] Then the pandemic hit. [5:52] Cuba never fully recovered [5:54] with last year's arrivals the lowest [5:56] outside the Covid years in two decades. [5:59] Hotels have closed [6:01] and credit card transactions have been suspended. [6:06] The Cuban government has remained reliant on Soviet [6:09] era programs. [6:10] The biggest single source of foreign currency for the, [6:13] for the island right now is its [6:14] doctors, its medical brigades. [6:16] At times, there's been more than 24,000 doctors working [6:19] these brigades abroad and they, they bring in more than $4 [6:21] billion to the economy. [6:23] Venezuela sent subsidized oil to Cuba in exchange for [6:28] Cuban medical workers. [6:30] Cuba has made economic reforms in fits [6:34] and starts when it had to, [6:36] but it is the only remaining communist country [6:40] that it hasn't attempted any type [6:42] of substantial market reform. [6:45] Pivoting to state-run capitalism may be the obvious move [6:48] for leadership in Cuba. [6:50] But in the near term, the private sector may offer its best [6:54] hope at recovery. [6:55] The Cubans have having this incredible ability to adapt. [7:00] You start to read about the business literature in Cuba [7:02] and it's always talks about how resilient they are. [7:05] And that's what we're seeing now. [7:18] The Cuban government says there are now more than [7:21] 9,200 small and medium businesses. [7:25] The private sector shown here in Gray is also employing a [7:29] growing share of the workforce. [7:48] Cuba's leadership is not blind to the situation. [7:52] The Cuban government approving more than [7:54] 170 sweeping economic reforms opening the door [7:57] to private investment. [7:59] Cuba is opening itself up to foreign investment. [8:01] It is allowing its private sector to grow, [8:04] but it is still a communist system. [8:06] Doing business in Cuba involves doing [8:09] business with the state. [8:12] The government has also said that Cubans living abroad [8:14] should be allowed to invest in small business [8:17] and own small businesses on the island. [8:19] But again, there's so many caveats there. [8:21] You would be a fool to invest in Cuba [8:23] under these circumstances, precisely [8:25] because the Cuban government provides no guarantees [8:28] for either the investment that you might make [8:31] or property ownership [8:33] or just the rights of private entrepreneurs [8:36] to control the nature of their investment [8:38] or the profits that might accrue. [8:40] Hold that thought until after this. [8:44] I feel like a pawn and a big game of chess. [8:47] Uncover more at bloomberg.com/videos. [8:55] Cuba's expat community is helping to fill the void. [8:59] Hugo Cancio runs Katapulk, an online marketplace [9:03] that allows the Cuban diaspora [9:05] to buy anything from groceries to mobile minutes [9:08] for their relatives. [9:09] We have over 33,000 products. [9:11] We do about 1,500 to 2,000 orders a day. [9:15] We have a huge logistic on the ground. [9:18] There is an exception [9:19] to commerce department's export controls on Cuba. [9:23] This allows companies like Hugo Cancio's to import food, [9:27] to import consumer goods without running afoul [9:30] of US sanctions. [9:31] Cancio's company is even shipping containers [9:34] of natural gas to the island. [9:37] But the quantities needed [9:38] to recharge the country's energy grid will have [9:41] to come from big suppliers. [9:44] Big money is going take a while to come. [9:46] You need to change the rules of engagement. [9:49] You need to have a legal system that protects investment. [9:53] There's wealth being created in Cuba. [9:54] I think the private sector of the champions right now, [9:57] they're the one moving forward whatever little [9:59] economy there is left. [10:03] Meanwhile, American internal politics are also driving [10:06] much change in Cuba. [10:08] You can't tell the Cuban political story without [10:10] telling the South Florida story. [10:13] Marco Rubio is born to Cuban parents in Florida. [10:17] He's definitely part of this kind of Cuban hard line, [10:19] this Cuban political force that wants to see change in Cuba. [10:23] And it's important for US politics. [10:27] I really don't believe this system is capable of reform [10:30] unless new people take over. [10:32] Somebody like Rubio, who probably has presidential [10:34] aspirations, if he could give this to that community, [10:38] if he could be the one to usher in regime change, [10:40] it would probably vault him to the very front [10:43] of the field in a future Republican primary. [10:49] I think he'd like to be the [10:50] liberator, quote unquote, of Cuba. [10:53] And I think that the Republican Party in general owes much [10:58] of its electoral success, at least since the year 2000, [11:01] to the state of Florida [11:03] and largely to South Florida voters who are Cuban exiles. [11:07] I'm gona take good care of them. [11:08] I'm gonna let them go back to their land. [11:27] I personally, and a lot [11:28] of Cubans don't want this direct military [11:31] confrontation with the United States. [11:33] That'll be really sad. [11:34] Somewhere in Cuba, there is someone [11:36] mother's, someone's father. [11:38] There's my young nephew who is 19 years old. [11:41] He's in the Cuban military. [11:44] I hope and will do everything within my powers to where, [11:49] you know, my adoptive country [11:50] and my native country comes to term [11:52] and negotiated into this humanitarian crisis [11:56] that is happening on the island right now.