Florida Freezes and 17% Tariffs Push Wholesale Tomatoes to $65

佛州寒潮与17%关税推升番茄批发价至65美元 佛罗里达州严重的冬季作物受灾加上对墨西哥进口商品加征的新关税，将番茄价格推升至四十年来的高位，而杂货店则维持高零售价以保障利润空间。 本期内容探讨了近期番茄价格创历史新高背后的经济驱动因素，将供应链冲击追溯至佛罗里达州摧毁了80%国内作物的严重冬季霜冻，以及对墨西哥进口商品征收的新反倾销关税。节目还探讨了在北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）签署后，墨西哥如何在对高产遮阳棚和温室投资的推动下，占据了美国冬季番茄市场70%的份额。对话还对比了零售超市通过“火箭与羽毛”效应维持高价与餐饮服务采购之间的差异，并强调了运费和化肥等投入成本的上升，以及注重风味的特种即食番茄的兴起。 全美零售番茄价格达到每磅2.69美元的四十年新高，同比涨幅约40%。 (0:00) Baldor Specialty Foods 是一家高端批发分销商，提供约7,000个SKU，其客户群分布为餐饮服务占70%、独立零售占30%。 (5:00) NAFTA签署后，北美冬季番茄供应格局彻底逆转，从佛罗里达占80%、墨西哥占20%，转变为如今墨西哥占70%、佛罗里达占30%。 (10:00) 番茄价格飙升的主要诱因是佛罗里达州严重的冬季霜冻，该灾害摧毁了高达80%的国内冬季作物，造成超过1.5亿美元的农产品损失。 (10:00) 再度引发的贸易争端导致对墨西哥番茄征收17%以上的反倾销关税，加剧了监管不确定性与供应紧张态势。 (15:00)

A convergence of catastrophic winter weather in Florida, trade friction with Mexico, and soaring freight expenses pushed U.S. tomato prices to a four-decade high, according to Baldor Specialty Foods' Jacob Krempel. The crisis highlights structural shifts across the produce supply chain, including sticky supermarket markups and an industry-wide transition toward high-tech, premium snacking varieties. Weather Shocks and Tariffs Constrain Winter Supply (15:00) Retail tomato prices recently reached a 40-year peak of $2.69 per pound, reflecting a roughly 40% year-over-year increase that saw wholesale crates average $65 in May. Jacob Krempel explains that North America relies heavily on warm climates during winter. While Florida produced 80% of U.S. winter tomatoes before NAFTA, Mexico now supplies 70% and Florida 30%. When two consecutive winter freezes destroyed up to 80% of Florida's field crop—causing over $150 million in lost produce—inelastic demand left the market highly vulnerable. Compounding Florida's production shortfall, Mexican output dropped an estimated 3% to 4%, an impact magnified by Mexico's dominant market share. Cross-border trade tensions also resurfaced when the U.S. government reopened anti-dumping proceedings and imposed tariffs exceeding 17% on Mexican tomatoes, injecting regulatory friction into the market just as domestic supplies collapsed. Freight Rates and Lagging Fertilizer Costs (32:00) Beyond agricultural losses, logistics significantly inflated produce distribution costs. Higher fuel prices, cross-border trucking enforcement on Mexican drivers, and broader driver shortages drove shipping rates to record highs. A dedicated two-driver team hauling produce non-stop from Salinas, California, to the East Coast historically cost $10,000 to $11,000, but spiked well beyond that baseline ahead of the interview. Agricultural input costs also threaten future pricing stability. While commercial growers had locked in fertilizer rates under earlier contracts to protect current-season prices, Krempel notes these agreements run on fixed cycles. As contracts expire over the ensuing six months, growers warned distributors that contract renegotiations will have to absorb significantly higher nutrient expenses. Wholesale Responsiveness Versus Retail Sticky Pricing (21:30) Pricing dynamics vary sharply between grocery store consumers and commercial food service buyers. Although wholesale prices receded toward five-year averages by June, supermarkets maintained elevated retail pricing. Grocery stores have evolved into hybrid logistics platforms carrying higher capital expenditures for home delivery and fulfillment, while modern produce departments manage 300 to 500 SKUs compared to 75 to 100 in the 1970s. Consequently, the retail-to-wholesale beef cutout spread expanded from 30% to roughly 40%–45%, mirroring broad retail reluctance to drop produce prices quickly. In contrast, professional restaurant buyers track daily USDA reports and field harvest projections. Food service buyers refuse inflated quotes as soon as wholesale markets ease. Furthermore, because raw food ingredients constitute only about 30% of a restaurant's total operating expenses—compared to 70% to 75% for distributors—many chefs opt for daily or weekly spot market purchasing to capture price drops rather than entering long-term fixed commitments. The Rise of Controlled-Environment Specialty Varieties (40:00) The tomato industry is structurally moving away from standard, fist-sized commodity varieties toward high-margin, sweeter snacking tomatoes. High-tech greenhouse operations, pioneered in Holland and expanded through hubs like Leamington, Ontario, allow precise climate and nutrient management that protects delicate seeds from outdoor diseases. However, closed systems face biological hazards: greenhouse viral outbreaks have repeatedly forced growers to destroy infected crops, sanitize soil, and restart entire cycles. Culinary interest in specialty tomatoes—such as those produced by Girl & Dug Farms or Mastronardi Produce's Flavor Bombs—is typically introduced by top-tier restaurants and propelled by visual social media platforms like Instagram. When winter freezes decimated commodity round beefsteak fields, commercial buyers shifted purchasing to Roma, vine-ripe, and snacking varieties, illustrating how substitution rapidly propagates price inflation across diverse tomato categories. While wholesale tomato supplies recover from extreme seasonal freezes, distributors face ongoing vulnerability from contract-delayed fertilizer costs and high transport overhead. Whether consumer prices drop back down depends on whether grocery retailers choose to preserve expanded margins or pass commodity deflation through to retail shelves.

彭博社《Odd Lots》节目指出，受极端天气破坏主产区收成、跨国贸易摩擦与关税升级，以及全链条物流和零售加价等因素交织影响，美国新鲜番茄零售价格创下40年新高，达到每磅2.69美元。 佛州寒潮与墨美贸易结构重塑供给格局 美国冬季番茄供应高度依赖温暖地区。在北美自由贸易协定签署前，佛罗里达州承担了全美80%的冬季供应，但如今格局彻底逆转，墨西哥占据约70%的份额，佛罗里达仅占30%。冬季佛州接连遭遇两次严重霜冻，导致田间约80%的作物被毁，作物损失超过1.5亿美元，相当于市场上四分之一的供应量被直接抹去。生鲜农产品需求本身缺乏弹性，短期供给的大幅削减迅速推高了现货价格。 与此同时，北美贸易摩擦进一步加剧了供应紧张。墨西哥种植商虽然通过遮阳网棚技术将每亩单产提升了三至四倍，但今年产量仍出现3%至4%的下滑。雪上加霜的是，美国政府重启针对墨西哥番茄的反倾销调查并征收超过17%的反倾销关税，这在佛州供给崩溃的当口制造了监管与流通阻碍，一度推动5月份批发市场番茄均价飙升至每箱65美元的罕见高位。 现代超市的定价滞后与毛利补偿策略 (21:30) 批发端与零售端价格表现存在显著割裂，呈现经典的“火箭与羽毛”动态——短缺发生时零售价如火箭般蹿升，但当批发市场在6月回落至五年均值时，零售价格却如羽毛般缓慢下落。这一差距源于现代零售业态的根本转变：过去15年间，超市逐步转型为融合技术、自提点、到家配送网络和履约中心的重资产混合平台，运营成本大幅攀升。为在沉重开支下保住4%至7%的EBITDA利润率，超市选择在消费者对批发行情不敏感的情况下维持高售价。 此外，现代生鲜区的品类复杂度激增。传统超市在20世纪70年代仅陈列75至100个生鲜SKU，而现代超市生鲜区则管理着300至500个SKU，损耗管控极为复杂。零售商与批发商之间的“分割利差”（cutout spread）从20年前的约30%扩大至如今的40%至45%，牛肉等其他生鲜品类也出现了类似的高额加价模式，零售终端借此抵消技术与履约成本。 餐饮采购与零售消费者的信息不对称 (25:00) 与缺乏价格透明度、只能被动接受涨价的普通家庭消费者相比，餐饮服务业的采购呈现出“涨如火箭，跌如落石”的特征。商业主厨与批发采购团队持续追踪美国农业部（USDA）每日行情报告，并同产地种植户直接沟通田间预测，一旦批发市场回落，专业买家会迅速施压分销商下调报价。此外，由于原材料仅占餐厅总运营成本的约30%（其余大部分为房租、劳动力和公用事业开支），许多餐厅更倾向于采用日度或周度现货采购，在价格低于均线时灵活锁定成本，而非签署长期固定合同。 不同品种之间的替代性进一步扩散了通胀压力。当佛州牛肉番茄等普通圆番茄大面积绝收时，商业厨房的替代性需求迅速转向罗马番茄与特定零食番茄，导致其他品类同步涨价。此外，温室运营中突发的新型病毒迫使种植户多次彻底清理受污染土壤与植株并重置周期，温室病害风险与露地天气灾害在不同品类之间形成了连锁冲击。 长途冷链运力收紧与化肥合同滞后效应 (32:00) 分销商Baldor指出，供应链中间环节的成本压力正在全线积聚。物流端受高油价、运力吃紧以及针对跨境卡车司机的移民执法收紧影响，长途货运价格创下历史新高。以往从加州萨利纳斯至美东走完全程的双人轮流驾驶冷链货车运费约为10,000至11,000美元，近期该路线运价已突破历史纪录。冷链运输还面临苛刻的温度管理冲突：草莓和肉类要求严格保持在华氏33至34度，而番茄和洋葱适宜存放在华氏48至52度，多温区同车运输显著推高了生鲜跨区调拨难度。 农业上游的化肥通胀尚未完全释放。番茄属于高养分消耗作物，大部分规模种植户在当前生长季初已提前锁定了化肥价格，暂时延缓了成本传导。然而，随着现行合同在未来数月逐步到期，种植户已向分销商预警夏末新一轮合同谈判必须计入更高的化肥成本，后续零售价格仍将取决于分销和零售环节是选择自行消化微薄利润还是转嫁给终端。 高附加值育种转型与温室重资产投入 (40:00) 种植端正在发生结构性转变，传统普通番茄的种植面积被 sweeter、高附加值的即食零食番茄蚕食。由荷兰引入并向北美普及的高科技温室产业重塑了这一品类，温室通过精准环境控制克服了娇贵品种在户外易感染病害的弱点。类似Mastronardi Produce等大型企业投入数英亩测试温室开展育种研发，Girl & Dug等特色农场则通过疏花控产来换取极致风味。 这种风味创新往往由高端餐饮菜单发起，经由社交媒体传播引发大众跟风。但室内受控农业并未彻底摆脱成本困境，严苛的温控和光照带来了高昂的天然气与电力消耗。当极端寒潮或病害导致高达80%的产量损失时，高企的单位售价并不能为种植户带来暴利，反而因固定投资与重置成本使得农户面临严重的财务脆弱性。 当前北美番茄价格的异常高位是由气候冲击、跨境贸易关税、冷链物流运力瓶颈以及零售商维持高毛利策略共同促成的。尽管批发端现货供应逐步平准化，但后续化肥重签合同带来的滞后成本、温室高能耗运营负担，以及零售端不愿让渡的利差，意味着消费者终端购买成本短期内仍将保持粘性。

## Background 本期节目由彭博社（Bloomberg）旗下的财经播客《Odd Lots》于 2026 年 6 月 11 日在网页及 RSS 平台发布。节目简介指出，全美番茄零售均价攀升至每磅约 2.69 美元并创下近四十年新高，生鲜果蔬价格普遍飙升，节目邀请了生鲜食品分销巨头 Baldor 的采购与商品营销高级副总裁 Jacob Krempel，深入探讨美国番茄供应版图、贸易关税变局、餐厅成本博弈以及新型番茄品种的爆发。 ## TL;DR 本期节目深度剖析了全美番茄价格飙升至四十年新高背后的供应链风暴：佛罗里达州连续两场毁灭性霜冻摧毁了当地 80% 的作物，叠加美国对占据冬季七成供应的墨西哥番茄加征反倾销关税导致种植缩减，在短期需求刚性下引爆了供给短缺。嘉宾详细拆解了农产品供应链在极端个位数薄利下的生存法则，展示了农户“七成保本长约、三成博取现货暴利”的对冲机制，并揭示了零售超市面对消费者“火箭升、羽毛落”的迟缓降价策略与专业餐饮买手精准倒逼批发底价的鲜明反差。此外，对话还梳理了受温室技术革新与社交媒体美学推动的“零食番茄”热潮，以及跨国冷链物流在不同品类储运温区管理上面临的苛刻挑战。 ## Atmosphere & style 对谈在轻松幽默与硬核产业解构之间自如切换，主持人 Joe 对番茄的近乎痴狂与 Tracy 细数后院种植床的心得碰撞出热烈的火花，瞬间消解了宏观通胀议题的枯燥感。随着嘉宾 Jacob Krempel 的娓娓道来，对话深入到纽约顶级餐厅后厨的深夜采购、墨西哥遮阳网棚的生产力代际压制，以及长途冷藏卡车跨越乔治·华盛顿大桥的温控细节，充满了极具现场感的产业颗粒度。整场收听体验既像是在听一位深谙内幕的生鲜老兵拆解商业奥秘，又让人对货架上一颗看似普通的番茄背后所交织的全球气候、关税战与商业博弈产生全新的敬畏感。 ## Bulletin - `01:50` 全美番茄零售均价攀升至每磅约 2.69 美元，同比暴涨约 40%，刷新近四十年最高纪录，佛罗里达严重霜冻及美墨贸易摩擦是价格失控的核心推手。 - `14:15` 佛罗里达州接连遭遇两场严重极寒霜冻，导致当地 80% 的番茄作物绝收，经济损失超 1.5 亿美元，全美冬季基础供应缩水约 26%。 - `16:05` 美国政府对占据全美冬季 70% 份额的墨西哥番茄加征超 17% 反倾销税，致使墨西哥种植户缩减 3% 至 4% 的播种面积，与佛州寒灾叠加形成供给完美风暴。 - `32:32` 东西海岸长途冷链运费创历史新高，加州萨利纳斯至东海岸的双人轮换冷藏车运费从数月前的 10,000 至 11,000 美元大幅飙升。 ## Key takeaways - `10:00` 生鲜农产品在短期内具有极强的需求价格刚性，一旦主产区遭遇气候灾害导致供给微幅收缩，批发端价格便会呈现垂直拉升。 - `12:30` 番茄种植户普遍采用“三七开”销售结构：60% 至 70% 产量靠长期保底合同覆盖种植成本，30% 投放开放现货市场博取极端供给短缺时的超额利润。 - `12:30` 全产业链微利运行：种植农户、批发分销商至零售超市的净利润率普遍仅有个位数，原料暴涨无法被中间环节自行消化，必将转嫁终端。 - `14:15` 美墨冬季番茄供应格局在 NAFTA 后发生彻底逆转，佛罗里达本土份额从 80% 骤降至 30%，墨西哥凭借遮阳网棚与温室技术占据 70% 市场。 - `16:05` 墨西哥利用遮阳网棚技术将每英亩土地番茄单产提升至露天种植的 3 至 4 倍，并引入加拿大全天候温室技术量产高品质零食番茄。 - `20:00` 零售超市价格呈现“火箭般蹿升、羽毛般飘落”的非对称粘性，批发价大幅回落后零售商往往维持高位试探消费者承受底线，以对冲生鲜高损耗与数字化履约成本。 - `25:00` 餐饮批发端与零售端定价逻辑相反，专业主厨与买手依托 USDA 官方数据每日比价，批发价呈现“火箭般上升、石头般坠落”的敏锐反应。 - `25:00` 新型温室病毒对墨西哥及北美的零食番茄温室造成毁灭性打击，染疫温室需全部清空铲除重新翻种，进一步加剧了高风味品种的短缺。 - `30:00` 鲜食番茄与罐装加工番茄属于完全割裂的供应链体系，后者主要在加州通过长期锁定合同种植，鲜食番茄暴涨并未直接波及加工罐头成本。 - `35:50` 种植户依靠提前储备锁定了一年期低价化肥，随着低价化肥耗尽，下半年新签年度采购合同时肥料通胀压力将迎来集中爆发。 - `40:00` 新奇零食番茄通过餐饮主厨菜单背书及社交媒体视觉营销自上而下渗透大众市场，其育种主要依赖传统杂交选育与现代温室微气候控制。 - `45:00` 餐厅运营中食材原材料成本仅占约 30%，终端餐盘涨价的核心驱动力在于劳动力、租金与公用事业账单，与零售端高商品成本占比结构截然不同。 - `55:00` 冷链物流存在严苛的微温区调控矛盾：草莓需维持在 33°F-34°F 极低温，而番茄则需 48°F-52°F 避免冷害失味，同车混装配送极度考验供应链运筹能力。 - `58:00` 信息不对称让零售商能够借媒体通胀声势顺势提价并延迟降价，缺乏产地与批发行情追踪能力的普通消费者承受了最大的终端定价权盘剥。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `01:50` 番茄狂热与创纪录的菜价飙升 节目一开始，主持人 Joe Weisenthal 就毫不掩饰自己对番茄近乎痴迷的狂热：“我太爱番茄了，天呐，我简直爱死番茄了！”尽管这期节目由 Tracy Alloway 提议录制，但 Joe 戏称自己要把整集节目据为己有。他自嘲道，自己小时候在美国伊利诺伊州郊区长大，超市里卖的番茄难吃到令人发指，导致他童年时一度认定番茄是“地球上最糟糕的蔬菜”。当 Tracy 试图纠正“番茄是水果而不是蔬菜”时，Joe 引用了一句经典俗语反驳：“知识是知道番茄其实是水果，而智慧是知道不要把它放进水果沙拉里。”然而，Joe 随即表示自己现在的标准已经被颠覆，如今有些番茄品种甘甜绝伦，他完全愿意端进水果沙拉。 玩笑归玩笑，录制这期节目的现实由头十分严峻：全美番茄价格正在经历前所未有的暴涨。最新数据显示，番茄零售均价已飙升至每磅约 2.69 美元，同比涨幅高达约 40%，刷新了近 40 年来的最高纪录。Joe 苦笑着表示，由于自己对番茄极度上瘾且属于“价格完全脱敏”的消费者，无论涨到多贵都会照买不误，因此这轮涨价纯粹是在“直接掏空他的钱包”。相比之下，Tracy 显得十分淡定，因为她刚刚在自家后院安装了五个大型高架种植床（raised beds），并刚刚移栽了一大批番茄苗。她如《阿甘正传》里的阿甘报虾类菜谱一样如数家珍，列举了切罗基紫（Cherokee Purple）、布兰迪万（Brandywine）以及自己首次尝试的“独立日”（Fourth of July）等品种，并向 Joe 保证今年夏天依然会像往年一样给他送自家种的高品质番茄。 - **创纪录价格**：番茄价格攀升至每磅 2.69 美元，创下约 40 年来的最高水平，同比涨幅达约 40%。 - **主持人家庭种植品种**：Tracy 在五个高架种植床中种植了经典传家宝品种切罗基紫（Cherokee Purple）、布兰迪万（Brandywine）以及新品种独立日（Fourth of July）。 --- ### `05:00` 认识 Baldor：从格林威治村果蔬店到生鲜分销巨头 面对通胀与供应链谜团，节目邀请到了生鲜采购与分销领域的资深专家——高端食品分销商 Baldor Specialty Foods 的采购与商品营销高级副总裁（SVP of Procurement and Merchandising）Jacob Krempel。Jacob 介绍，Baldor 是一家拥有 30 多年历史的食品服务分销企业，总部位于纽约市布朗克斯的亨茨角市场（Hunts Point Market）。目前公司的配送网络覆盖从缅因州一直向南延伸到北弗吉尼亚州，每天派出约 500 辆冷链卡车为客户配送新鲜食材。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Baldor 品牌历史演变流程图 accDescr: 展示 Baldor 从格林威治村零售店到独立分销公司的发展历程 subgraph Origin["起源（1970-1980 年代）"] A["格林威治村著名果蔬店<br>Balducci's"] B["采购主管 Joe Doria<br>寻觅高端独特品种"] A --- B end subgraph Merging["合资创立批发线"] C["厨师纷纷来店采购<br>催生批发分销业务"] D["品牌融合命名：<br>Balducci + Doria = Baldor"] Origin --> C --> D end subgraph Growth["独立拆分与传承"] E["1991 年正式拆分独立<br>Andy Balducci 女婿 Kevin Murphy 掌舵"] F["2013 年 Kevin 去世<br>其子 TJ Murphy 继任 CEO 至今"] D --> E --> F end ``` 谈及 Baldor 的名称由来，Jacob 分享了一段有趣的行业掌故：公司的源头是纽约格林威治村赫赫有名的精品熟食杂货店 Balducci's。当时店里的果蔬采购负责人名为 Joe Doria，他终日奔波寻觅市面上最独特、最高品质的农产品。渐渐地，纽约当地的众多顶级餐厅大厨也纷纷跑到 Balducci's 进货。店主 Andy Balducci 与 Joe Doria 敏锐地抓住了这一商机，决定成立一家专门面向餐饮业的批发分销公司，并将两人的姓氏合二为一（Balducci + Doria），由此诞生了“Baldor”。1991 年，Andy Balducci 的女婿 Kevin Murphy 接手并将其拆分为独立运作的公司，执掌企业直至 2013 年因癌症去世；如今，公司由 Kevin 的儿子 TJ Murphy 担任所有者兼首席执行官。 --- ### `06:30` “高端精选”定位与餐饮采购的现实互动 在食品流通领域，大型综合分销商（broadliners）如 Sysco 往往以海量标准品见长，可能动辄提供超过两万个 SKU；而 Baldor 则将自己定位于“高端精选分销商”（highliner）。Jacob 解释道，虽然公司如今的产品线已扩展至肉类与乳制品，但果蔬生鲜始终是他们的核心起家业务与看家本领（wheelhouse）。与巨头铺摊子不同，Baldor 维持着一个大约 7,000 个精选 SKU 的产品库，团队买手对挖掘特色小众农产品怀有极高热情，既供应基础的散装罗马生菜，也提供顶级风味番茄。 目前 Baldor 的业务构成中，大约 70% 或更高比例直接服务于餐饮业，其余 30% 则流向独立高端零售商及其他批发商。其餐饮客户跨度极大，涵盖了纽约地区享有盛誉的米其林星级餐厅、名厨先锋餐厅，乃至街角的熟食店（bodega）与贝果店。在日常业务往来中，客户既可以通过其官方电商网站 BaldorFood.com 实时查看库存、定价和产地故事，也可以依靠专属销售代表提供的“白手套级专属服务”（white glove service）。当餐厅主厨打算设计一道经典的卡布里沙拉（Caprese salad）时，他们可以直接致电销售顾问询问：“哪批番茄到了？你现在推荐用哪款？”甚至由买手为菜单创新提供食材灵感。 随着采购话题的深入，Joe 提到了已故名厨安东尼·波登（Anthony Bourdain）在名作《厨房机密》（Kitchen Confidential）中所描绘的餐饮采购生态——主厨们常常周旋于各个供货商之间互相压价（例如“隔壁能给我拿这个价格的鱼，你能给什么价”）。面对过去数年极端剧烈的食材价格波动，Joe 向 Jacob 提出了核心疑问：在生鲜蔬菜这个高度波动的行业中，餐厅与供应商之间究竟如何签订合同？餐厅是否真的能够提前锁定采购价格？ ### `10:00` 餐厅采购博弈与生鲜农产品的极端价格波动 批发食品分销商 Baldor 与餐厅主厨之间的合作模式极具弹性，既要适应不同规模客户的需求，也要在定价与服务之间找到平衡。Jacob Krempel 打趣称合作关系周期是“商业机密”，但实际上公司致力于“在主厨所在的位置迎合他们”：从每日现货报价、每周固定价，到针对大型连锁餐厅的长期锁定合同，各种模式并存。尽管很多主厨依然保留着货比三家的采购习惯，但 Baldor 的核心壁垒在于超高水准的服务履约。例如，纽约市的主厨即便在深夜 11 点才在网站下单，次日清晨 6 点前食材就能精准送达后厨，而绝大多数竞争对手早已停止接单。 谈及近期番茄价格飙升是否引发客户疯狂锁定价格，Krempel 直言，尽管番茄的价格绝对值创下数十年纪录，但在生鲜农产品领域，这种剧烈波动其实是采购团队的家常便饭。美国市场对生鲜的需求在短期内具有极强的价格刚性（inelastic），而供给又极度依赖天气、种植面积和每亩产出。番茄只是最近一个“爆雷”的品类，紧随其后的生鲜通胀已经排起长队：加利福尼亚的恶劣天气导致罗马生菜（Romaine）批发价逼近每箱 100 美元的“疯狂水平”，而牛油果更在一周之内从每箱 30 美元暴涨至 80 美元。主持播客的 Tracy 甚至插话打趣道，自己因为早年撰写过比特币价格与牛油果价格关联性的分析文章，莫名其妙进入了哈斯牛油果协会（Hass Avocado Board）的邮件通讯列表，经常收到极为专业的市场动态。 - 灵活定价机制：提供日结、周结及长约合同，平衡主厨的比价心理与供应链确定性。 - 极致履约优势：纽约地区最晚接单时间可达夜间 11 点，次日清晨 6 点即可配送入厨。 - 连锁反应中的其他品类：罗马生菜飙升至近 100 美元/箱，牛油果仅用一周时间就从 30 美元翻倍跳涨至 80 美元/箱。 --- ### `12:30` 解构番茄成本：微利行业与现货市场的“三七开”法则 面对番茄价格同比上涨 40% 的彭博报道，农产品批发价格与超市终端标价有着完全不同的形成逻辑。如果直接向农户购买半卡车的番茄，其基础成本涵盖了种子、化肥、劳动力、灌溉水、种植设施运维、电力能源以及卡车运输。这些构成了种植户每年必须覆盖的盈亏平衡底线。然而，种植农户、批发分销商到零售超市本质上全都是在个位数净利润率上如履薄冰的“薄利行业”，原料成本占总成本的比例极高，没有任何一方能够轻易消化原料端的成本暴涨。 为了对抗市场风险并博取收益，农户普遍采用经典的“三七开”销售结构：大约 60% 至 70% 的产量会提前签订合同锁定回报，确保覆盖成本并赚取稳定基础收益；剩余的 30% 产量则留给开放的现货市场（根据美国农业部 USDA 现货基准价走）。种植户正指望靠这三成现货博取市场供给短缺时的行情上行，从而获得赖以生存的超额利润。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 农场番茄销售定价结构 accDescr: 展示番茄种植户通过长约与现货组合抵御风险并博取利润的分配流程。 subgraph Cost["种植基础成本底线"] Inputs["种子、化肥、人工、水资源、能源设施与卡车物流"] end subgraph Allocation["收获产量分配策略"] Contract["60%~70% 签订保底长约<br>（锁定基本回报，覆盖盈亏线）"] Spot["30% 投放开放现货市场<br>（依据 USDA 报价，博取暴涨红利）"] end subgraph Market["最终市场销售"] Wholesale["批发商 / 零售终端<br>（个位数微利承压运行）"] end Cost --> Allocation Contract --> Wholesale Spot --> Wholesale ``` - 核心成本要素：种子、化肥、人工、农业用水、设施能源及长途运输构成生产基础线。 - 组合销售策略：农户将约 60% 至 70% 的产能锁定合同以求保本，留出 30% 押注现货市场博取高估值。 - 行业利润特征：从田间种植、中间分销到商超零售，全产业链均在个位数利润率的刀尖上运营。 --- ### `14:15` 冬季供应格局与佛罗里达的双重霜冻冲击 美国番茄产地有着极为鲜明的季节性断代。深冬时节的新泽西或伊利诺伊根本无法在露天种植番茄，冬季传统的田间番茄全部集中在佛罗里达州和墨西哥两地。在《北美自由贸易协定》（NAFTA）出台之前，美国冬季番茄约 80% 由本土佛罗里达供应，仅 20% 来自墨西哥；而如今这一比例发生了惊人的彻底反转，墨西哥供应了全美冬季 70% 的番茄，佛罗里达仅占 30%。这种供应链结构使得全美对特定产区的天气突变脆弱到了极点。 今年番茄价格失控的根源并不是化肥等生产要素成本的上升，而是单纯的天气毁灭性打击。佛罗里达在冬季接连遭遇两场严重霜冻，导致田间植株冻死、花蕾大面积脱落，佛罗里达多达 80% 的番茄作物直接化为乌有，经济损失超过 1.5 亿美元。在短期需求刚性的市场中，如果全美冬季原本需要 100 个番茄，佛州原本负责提供 30 个，冻害直接导致 26 个番茄从供应链中人间蒸发。当整个市场只剩下 74 个番茄来应对 100 个番茄的需求缺口时，价格曲线便不可避免地垂直拉升。 - 产地版图大逆转：NAFTA 前本土供应占 80%，如今墨西哥反向主导 70% 的冬季供给份额。 - 佛州极寒打击：两场连续霜冻摧毁了佛罗里达 80% 的番茄作物，经济损失突破 1.5 亿美元。 - 供给端断崖：全美番茄基础供给瞬间缩水约 26%，在极度刚性的需求压力下直接引爆涨价潮。 --- ### `16:05` 遮阳棚技术革命与美墨番茄反倾销关税之争 在佛罗里达供给崩盘的同时，占据七成份额的墨西哥未能填补缺口，其背后交织着农业技术演进与数十年的贸易战阴云。随着 90 年代自由贸易开启，墨西哥的锡那罗亚（Sinaloa）、索诺拉（Sonora）和哈利斯科（Jalisco）等地区凭借广袤土地与极低冻害风险迅速崛起。当地农户大规模引入遮阳网棚（shade house）设施，既能防烈日灼伤又能防虫害，将每英亩土地的番茄产出提升至露天种植的 3 至 4 倍。随后墨西哥更引进加拿大安大略省利明顿（Leamington）地区的顶尖温室（greenhouse）技术，开始反季节、全天候规模化量产高品质零食小番茄，实现了对传统露天种植的代际超越。 技术的碾压引发了佛罗里达种植户持续数十年的“反倾销”控诉。佛州农户指责墨西哥不公平低价倾销，而墨西哥方面则反驳称自己的低价源于较低的人工成本与成倍的技术单产优势。过去双方主要依靠《番茄中止协议》（Tomato Suspension Agreement）设置最低保护限价来维持休战；然而去年 7 月，美国政府重开调查并正式对墨西哥番茄加征超过 17% 的反倾销税。这项关税打破了原有的确定性，直接导致墨西哥种植户今年缩减了 3% 至 4% 的播种面积。当墨西哥因贸易关税削减供给，叠加佛罗里达被极寒摧毁时，市场迎来了最惨烈的“完美风暴”：5 月份每箱番茄的平均批发价格直接从五年历史均线附近狂飙到了惊人的 65 美元。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 美墨番茄贸易冲突与市场完美风暴 accDescr: 展示墨西哥遮阳棚技术进步、佛州反倾销关税与极寒气候叠加导致的番茄批发价格飙升流程。 subgraph Tech["墨西哥生产优势演进"] Shade["遮阳棚技术普及<br>（单产达到露天 3~4 倍）"] Greenhouse["引进加拿大温室科技<br>（全天候量产零食番茄）"] end subgraph TradeWar["美墨贸易博弈升级"] Dispute["佛州指责低价倾销 vs 墨方主张单产效率"] Tariff["去年7月美重开调查<br>加征 17%+ 反倾销税<br>墨西哥缩减 3%~4% 种植面积"] end subgraph Storm["完美风暴与价格暴涨"] FreezeFactor["佛罗里达遭遇两轮寒潮断供 80%"] SpikeResult["5月份番茄批发均价<br>跳涨至 65 美元/箱历史高位"] end Tech --> Dispute Dispute --> Tariff Tariff --> Storm FreezeFactor --> Storm Storm --> SpikeResult ``` - 生产力跃升：墨西哥普及遮阳网棚与现代温室技术，实现每亩产出提升 3 到 4 倍并达成年产能常态化。 - 关税反噬：去年 7 月美国加征逾 17% 的反倾销税，导致主导 70% 市场的墨西哥反常缩减了 3% 至 4% 的种植面积。 - 暴涨终局：佛州绝收与墨西哥减产形成供给夹击，番茄整箱批发均价在 5 月冲上 65 美元的历史天价。 ### `20:00` 零售超市的定价奥秘与“火箭升、羽毛落”现象 在谈及番茄批发价格的走势时，Jacob Krempel 指出，到了 6 月份，批发价格其实已经回落到五年平均水平，从 5 月底至 6 月底价格开始明显下滑。然而，批发市场的回落并不代表消费者能在超市货架上立刻看到降价，这牵涉到零售端独特的商业逻辑。正如业内常说的一句话，零售商的定价策略往往是“像火箭一样蹿升，却像羽毛一样飘落”（up like a rocket, down like a feather）。当供应冲击推高成本后，零售商倾向于试探消费者的价格承受底线，试图维持一个更高的新基准价格——即便批发成本早已大跌，只要消费者依然愿意买单，他们就不会轻易降价。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 零售商成本结构与高定价维持机制 accDescr: 展示生鲜零售在数字化转型下面临的成本上升以及通过延长高价周期来维持利润率的传导路径。 subgraph CostDrivers["运营成本激增"] A["即时配送与到店自提<br/>(Click & Collect)"] B["仓储与技术基础设施投入"] C["SKU激增至300-500种<br/>损耗率(Shrink)上升"] end subgraph BusinessModel["商业模式转变与对冲"] D["零售商转型为广告与数据平台<br/>向供应商出售消费数据"] E["维持零售高定价<br/>充分利用消费者信息不对称"] end subgraph FinancialResult["最终财务表现"] F["EBITDA 利润率稳定在 4% - 7%"] end CostDrivers --> BusinessModel BusinessModel --> FinancialResult ``` 过去 15 年间，杂货零售的底层商业模型发生了翻天覆地的转变。如今的超市不再仅仅是实体分销渠道，更像是广告和营销平台，他们向供应商销售海量的消费者购买行为数据，同时承担着线上配送（Home Delivery）和到店自提（Click and Collect）的高额技术、仓储及人力履约成本。尽管杂货商的息税折旧摊销前利润率（EBITDA margin）长期保持稳定——过去传统上维持在 4% 到 6%，如今大型零售商大约在 4% 到 7% 的区间——但这背后是成本结构的巨大膨胀。为了抵消亚马逊式的即时履约成本以及货架上从 1970 年代的 75 至 100 种生鲜 SKU 暴增至当今 300 至 500 种 SKU 带来的高损耗率（Shrink），零售商必须依靠更高的零售标价和更持久的高价维持期来赚取利润。 - **餐饮牛肉的极端案例**：主持人和嘉宾聊到如今食品通胀的普遍性，甚至在纽约市的餐厅里，一份普通的纽约客牛排（strip steak）售价竟然高达 120 美元，但消费者依然在源源不断地为此买单。 - **批发与零售剪刀差扩大**：在牛肉市场中，零售价与批发切块价（wholesale cutout）的差距达到了历史最高水平。二十年前，牛肉零售单价较批发的溢价大约为 30%，如今这一加价幅度已攀升至 40% 到 45%。 --- ### `25:00` 餐饮供应链的敏锐买手与温室病毒对番茄产业的冲击 与面对普通大众的超市零售截然相反，Jacob Krempel 指出，在他们所处的餐饮批发（Food Service）领域，价格机制是“像火箭一样上升，像石头一样坠落”（up like a rocket, down like a rock）。餐饮业的主厨和专业采购团队极具洞察力，绝对不会被媒体上铺天盖地的通胀新闻所蒙蔽。一旦市场供应回暖，买手们会直接登录美国农业部（USDA）的官方网站查验真实行情，甚至直接与农场主沟通产地采收预期，要求批发商立刻调降价格。针对主持人调侃“消费者能否拿着 USDA 的数据去超市找收银员讲价”，Jacob 笑着承认自己甚至曾在超市跟生鲜部主管理论过“我知道这批货的真实底价是多少”，但对普通零售消费者而言，这种谈判完全行不通。 除了极端气候外，深层的病害危机也在悄然重塑番茄供应链： - **温室病毒的毁灭性打击**：在寒潮来临之前，墨西哥及北美整体的番茄种植面积和产量就已经偏低，核心原因在于多种新型病毒席卷了传统温室。 - **高风味零食番茄受灾严重**：病毒主要攻击温室内的零食番茄（snacking tomatoes）等高风味品种。一旦感染，种植者必须将温室彻底清空，连同土壤全部铲除并重新翻种，导致过去一段时间内高端番茄的价格异常动荡。 - **不同品种间的价格替代效应**：市场上并不存在单一维度的“番茄价格”。普通圆番茄（如新泽西牛肉番茄 beefsteak）与罗马番茄（Roma tomatoes）具备极高的互换性。当佛罗里达的圆番茄绝收后，采购压力瞬间转向罗马番茄市场，推动其价格暴涨；而当整体供应极度短缺时，买家甚至不惜转向串采番茄（vine-ripe）或樱桃番茄（cherry tomatoes），从而引发不同品类之间的连环连锁涨价。 ### `30:00` 普通番茄的演进与“零食番茄”的消费爆发 在讨论番茄品类时，主持人们提出了一个疑问：由于新型特色番茄拥有更高的溢价和利润率，种植者是否正在逐步放弃那些“无聊但便宜的普通番茄（cheap normie tomatoes）”？毕竟在老一辈的童年记忆里，市面上根本没有这么多五花八门的高端品种。 Jacob Krempel 解释称，番茄市场的演进确实十分剧烈，但基础款圆番茄（round tomato）或藤熟罗马番茄（vine-ripe Roma tomato）仍然拥有稳固的受众群体。这类番茄口感温和，不仅常用于制作三明治或莎莎酱（salsa），而且对餐厅和食品加工厂来说，标准滚圆的外形能带来完全可预测、高度一致的出成率（yield）。但在零售消费端，带有浓郁风味的小番茄正在迎来爆发式增长。种植者逐渐放弃风味较弱的传统樱桃番茄（cherry tomatoes），转向口感更甜的新品种。这类番茄不再仅仅被视作沙拉的配料，而是作为流行风尚的“零食番茄（snacking tomatoes）”被人们随手抓着吃。 在此期间，主持人打趣地提到自己在彭博终端（Bloomberg Terminal）上查询番茄价格时，意外发现日本竟然有一家名为“番茄银行（Tomato Bank）”的金融机构，其独特的品牌标识令人过目难忘。 - **加工番茄与鲜食番茄的市场割裂**：当被问及鲜食番茄上涨是否会推高番茄罐头价格时，Jacob 指出两者属于完全不同的供应链体系。罐装加工番茄绝大部分种植于加利福尼亚州（佛罗里达也有少量加工种植），采用截然不同的番茄品系；更重要的是，加工番茄往往签署长期采购合约，其成本控制比波动剧烈的鲜食行业更为严格稳定。 --- ### `32:32` 极端飙升的跨国物流与冷链货运成本 除了天气冲击外，物流也是推高生鲜农产品价格的核心元凶之一。Jacob Krempel 直言，如果不讨论物流和瓦楞纸箱（cardboard box），这就不算是一期真正的《Odd Lots》节目。 近期国际油价攀升，加之边境针对卡车司机的移民执法收紧，导致大量往返墨西哥与美国的跨境货运运力急剧萎缩。为了以最快速度将极易腐烂的生鲜从西海岸送抵东海岸，分销商通常会安排双人轮换驾驶（team drive）。Jacob 透露了一组令人震惊的行业数据： - **从“美国沙拉碗”加州萨利纳斯（Salinas）发往东海岸的双人长途冷藏车**：在约八个月前，一趟运费大约在 10,000 至 11,000 美元； - **近期峰值**：就在节目录制前几周，该路线运费一度飙升至历史罕见的高位，打破了他在农产品采购行业从业以来的最高纪录。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 农产品长途运输成本激增动因 accDescr: 展示油价与运力收缩如何共同推高东西海岸卡车运费 subgraph CostPush["成本推升因素"] A["柴油价格持续上涨"] B["边境移民执法收紧"] B --> C["跨境卡车司机运力骤减"] end subgraph Logistics["运输方案"] A --> D["西海岸至东海岸双人轮换冷链"] C --> D end subgraph PriceImpact["运费异动"] D --> E["运费从8个月前$10,000-$11,000<br/>飙升至历史新高"] end ``` --- ### `33:38` 家族渊源：从佛罗里达的采购办公室到 Baldor 面对如此高昂的货运成本，主持人好奇 Jacob 是否曾考虑直接从事农场种植。Jacob 回忆起自己的家庭背景：他的父亲曾是大型零售商克罗格（Kroger）的资深生鲜采购员，常驻佛罗里达州维罗海滩（Vero Beach）的采购办公室，全权负责克罗格整个美国东海岸的生鲜采购以及海外进口业务。 Jacob 自幼在蔬果圈子中耳濡目染。从幼儿园时期开始，每逢周五父亲便会给他请假，带他深入佛罗里达州伊莫卡利（Immokalee）或佐治亚州莫尔特里（Moultrie）这些并不光鲜却生机勃勃的农田前线探访种植户，沿途还会顺道打一场高尔夫球或观看棒球比赛。大学毕业后，Jacob 为了补齐生产端的知识盲区，曾前往北卡罗来纳州的种植兼发货商 L&M 工作过两年。 但 Jacob 最终选择回到采购与分销领域，核心原因在于深受父亲经营哲学的感染——父亲与农场主沟通时，谈论的从来不是采购部门自身的利益，而是“克罗格消费者的真实诉求”。对父亲而言，只有种植户和消费者双赢，采购才算成功。这种为终端创造价值的理念也促使 Jacob 最终加入 Baldor。无论客户需要的是随处可买的大宗罗马生菜心（Romaine Heart），还是如 Girl & Dug 农场这样拥有独特风味与动人家族故事的特色番茄，采购的目标始终是架起农人与消费者之间的信任桥梁。 --- ### `35:50` 滞后传导的化肥危机与下半年合同重签压力 除了气候与物流，肥料成本是影响番茄价格的另一记重锤。主持人指出，番茄属于“重度需肥作物（heavy feeders）”，在其漫长生长过程中需要摄入巨量的可降解有机质和养分。 Jacob 证实了未来价格面临进一步上行的严峻现实： - **短期保护伞瓦解**：此前绝大多数大型种植户通过提前采购锁定了一整年的化肥库存，因而上半年的肥料成本较为可控。 - **合约重签的成本重击**：随着原有的低价化肥储备在未来六个月内逐步耗尽，真正的成本压力即将在下半年显现。Baldor 的主要合同谈判期集中在夏末，此时将与供应商敲定下一年维度的保供合约。 - **种植者的预警**：目前众多种植户已向采购方发出预警，明确表示“今年的供给还能按旧成本兜底，但在洽谈明年的采购合同时，暴涨的化肥成本必须摆上台面重新定价”。 这一潜在成本最终将不可避免地迫使分销商、零售商与种植户展开博弈，并决定究竟有多少涨幅需要转嫁给终端消费者。 --- ### `37:05` 播客赞助广告资讯 本节末尾穿插了三则商业赞助播报： - **4imprint**：定制宣传品服务商，提供包含免设置费、多样化价格段选择、加急交付以及“360度满意保障”的品牌周边解决方案。 - **Public.com**：投资平台推介其基于自然语言的 AI Agent 交易自动化功能，投资者可用日常口语设定策略（如“当 VIX 达到 25 时买入标普 500 看跌期权”或“现金余额超 2 万美元时自动转入直接指数”），并提供具备完整读写权限的公共 API。 - **Optum**：医疗健康服务机构，致力于通过数据和科技整合患者诊疗、全人护理（涵盖初级保健、心理健康与居家照护）及药房网络，减少医护人员的繁琐杂务，让医生有更多时间专注照料病人。 ### `40:00` 新奇番茄品种的崛起与温室种植革命 录音室现场摆放着一盒来自农场品牌 Girl & Dug 的番茄，主持人翻看其官网时惊讶地发现了各种奇特的名字，例如“尤达宝宝”（Baby Yoda）、“苹果酒汽水”（Cider Pop）、“火鸟”（Firebird）、“日金”（Sun Gold）以及“原子番茄”（Atomic Tomato）。这引出了一个核心问题：这些过去闻所未闻的零食番茄（Snacking Tomatoes）与新奇品种，究竟是如何在市场上突围并成为一种流行风潮的？ Jacob Krempel 解释道，过去约 15 年间，零食番茄品类迎来了爆发式增长，其背后的主要推手正是温室种植技术的成熟。在室内环境中，种植者可以精准调控温度、湿度和水分，创造近乎完美的微气候。这使得农户能够培育许多在户外极难存活、抗病性弱的高难度种子品种。Girl & Dug 的负责人 Aaron 所种植的这些品种就极易感染病害，需要投入远超传统普通圆番茄的心血与呵护。这一温室种植潮流最早始于荷兰，荷兰在温室农业技术和种子公司创新方面领先北美 15 到 20 年。北美（特别是美国和加拿大）的种植商敏锐地捕捉到了零食番茄的商业潜力，开始与欧洲种子公司展开深度合作试种新品。 关于这些古怪品种如何进入大众视野，Jacob 指出，这种需求并非由消费者主动发起，而是“自上而下”由餐饮界向零售端推动的： - 许多新奇品种首先出现在高端餐厅的主厨菜单上。当食客在餐厅品尝到独特的“Girl & Dug 混合番茄拼盘”，并由服务生讲解其背后的农场故事后，便会产生浓厚兴趣并渴望在家里复刻。 - 大型番茄巨头如 Mastronardi Produce（旗下品牌 Sunset）拥有数英亩的测试温室，持续试种新品种，以寻求风味、产量、颜色与外观上的最佳平衡。 - 新番茄品种的走红本质上依赖于餐厅背书、故事包装以及精准的市场营销投放。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 新奇番茄品种商业化与市场普及路径 accDescr: 展示从荷兰种子研发到温室试种、高端餐厅推广，最终渗透至零售与家庭消费的完整流程。 subgraph RND["前端研发与种植"] A["欧洲/荷兰种子公司<br/>育种与基因改良"] --> B["美加先进温室试种<br/>平衡风味与产量"] end subgraph Distribution["渠道分发与推广"] B --> C["分销商 Baldor 选品<br/>主打故事与差异化"] C --> D["先锋餐厅设计菜单<br/>侍应生向顾客讲解故事"] end subgraph Consumer["大众市场普及"] D --> E["食客尝试并产生兴趣<br/>形成口碑与复购需求"] E --> F["商超零售与家庭厨房<br/>成为日常消费品类"] end ``` --- ### `43:00` 温室种植的能源现实与种植端的微薄利润 谈及温室技术，主持人分享了自己参观安大略省利明顿（Leamington）数英亩室内番茄温室的经历。外面是 10 月阴冷细雨的秋日，温室内却温暖如春，宛如最完美的春季晴天。这种人造气候的背后，依赖着大量从美国经由五大湖输送的天然气能源支持。 当被问及能源价格波动对番茄成本的影响时，Jacob 指出，虽然电费和天然气等能源开支巨大，但化肥、劳动力以及整体生产成本同样高昂。更为残酷的现实是，即便市场上番茄价格飙升至每箱 100 美元的天价，种植端的农户也并未因此发财： - 在极端天气或病害打击下，许多农场可能减产高达 80%，高售价仅仅勉强抵消其灾难性的产量损失。 - 农业种植是一个利润极其微薄的行业，受制于投入成本和 USDA（美国农业部）基于供需关系形成的指导行情。 - 分销商与种植商之间始终处于一种“阴阳博弈”：采购方希望压低成本以保持价格竞争力，但又必须确保农户能获得合理的利润回报以维持可持续经营。 --- ### `45:00` 餐厅与零售商应对食材通胀的截然不同逻辑 在食材成本全面通胀的背景下，无论是牛肉、鸡蛋、罗马生菜还是制作卡普里沙拉（Caprese Salad）所需的番茄和水牛奶酪都在大幅波动，餐厅该如何制定菜单价格？ Jacob 拆解了餐饮行业与零售商的成本结构差异。在餐厅的整体运营开支中，食物原材料成本（Food Cost）通常仅占 30% 左右；而在生鲜超市等零售端，商品成本（COGS）占到了 70% 到 75%。Jacob 以纽约的一家汉堡店为例： - **售价变化**：2019 年一份普通汉堡约 14 至 15 美元，如今一份品质尚可的汉堡已涨至 22 至 23 美元。 - **食材成本**：该汉堡的实际食材成本仅从约 3.50 美元上涨至 5.50 美元，虽然 2 美元的绝对增幅（接近 60%）极为惊人，但这根本不足以解释菜单终端近 8 美元的涨幅。 - **隐性推手**：真正推高餐盘价格的，是剧烈飙升的劳动力成本、租金上涨以及水电气等公共事业公用事业账单。 成本构成的悬殊差异，直接导致了不同渠道采购策略的分化： | 行业角色 | 原材料占总成本比例 | 采购偏好与定价策略 | 核心动因与商业考量 | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **餐饮业（主厨/餐厅）** | 约 30% | 倾向于**每日或每周浮动报价**，不锁长期固定合同，四处比价 | 试图在市场暴跌时捞取低价，靠原材料价格波动的低谷压低综合成本，同时其他固定成本（人工、租金）占大头。 | | **零售商 / 生鲜分销商** | 70% - 75% | 倾向于**长期协议锁定价格**，追求成本高度可预测 | 零售终端价格与上游进货价高度绑定，价格波动会直接侵蚀极为单薄的整体毛利。 | | **预制餐配送（如 HelloFresh）** | 极高（需固定每份餐食预算） | 极力寻求**长周期锁定合同** | 商业模式要求严格锁定每份餐的固定预算，无法承受供应链短期剧烈波动。 | Jacob 补充道，很多主厨抱有一种投机心态，宁愿承担风险四处询价，也不愿做出长期采购承诺。番茄价格在 4、5 月暴涨，但在 6 月迅速回落，如果回顾前一年的 11、12 月，价格甚至比五年平均水平低了 20% 到 30%。作为拥有 80 多个番茄 SKU 的批发分销商，Baldor 的核心价值就在于利用多产区布局与庞大的供应商网络，帮助餐饮客户研判市场走势，在行情暴涨供应商倾向违约（“扯起不可抗力大旗”）时，保障稳定的货源与最优的价格配置。 ### `50:00` 供应链共赢与番茄风味品种的破圈推荐 在生鲜供应链管理中，采购商与种植户之间的合作并非零和博弈，而是一种长期的“互利共赢”（win-win）关系。Jacob Krempel 解释道，当某些不可控因素导致市场供应紧张、价格暴涨时，长期合作的合同能够让采购方以合理价值拿到货源；而当市场供应过剩、价格暴跌时，采购方则会全力帮种植户跑量出货，帮他们消化库存。这种相互扶持的动态平衡，正是采购团队的核心工作所在——既保障下游终端客户的性价比，又确保上游种植端的利益不受损害。 当被主持人问及“如果不考虑价格，今年夏天最值得尝试的番茄品种是什么”时，Jacob 鼓励普通消费者在价格高企时不妨大胆走出“舒适区”，去农贸市场或超市尝试具有独特风味的新品种。面向大众零售市场，他强烈推荐了 Sunset（Mastriardi）旗下的 Flavor Bombs 系列。这种小番茄通常装在扁平的透明塑料翻盖盒（clamshell）中，带有藤蔓售卖，包含四到五个不同品系。其风味极其平衡饱满，不仅是绝佳的零食，甚至被纽约的多家顶级餐厅直接用作调制高端意面酱的核心原料。 面向餐饮端与小众精品市场，Jacob 展示了种植户 Aaron（Girl & Dug Farm）带来的混装番茄（medley）。Aaron 的父母退休前经营花店，退休后买下农场；Aaron 接手后转型为“专注厨师需求”的种植商，培育各种极其小众、极具视觉冲击力与独特风味的产品。最初他甚至通过 FedEx 从圣地亚哥直接空运样品给纽约名厨，后来才接入 Baldor 的冷链分销网络。为了追求极致口感，这种番茄在种植时需要人工掐掉至少三分之一的花朵，从而让养分集中输送到结出的果实中；虽然抗病性较弱、种植损耗大，但风味浓郁度远超普通商业番茄。 - **Sunset Flavor Bombs**：大众零售端可买到的风味天花板，带藤包装，果香浓郁，广受顶级餐厅厨师青睐。 - **Girl & Dug Farm 特选番茄**：专为厨师培育的精品番茄，舍弃高产与抗病性，通过疏花控产（剔除超三分之一花朵）实现风味浓缩。 --- ### `52:30` 育种研发与社交媒体时代的食品流行趋势 针对“更甜、更多维度的番茄风味究竟从何而来”的疑问，Jacob 指出，现代风味创新绝大多数依赖传统的杂交育种（crossbreeding），而非转基因工程，并且主要发生在专业的种子企业研发端。种植户会与种子公司建立紧密的合作研发闭环：种植户试种实验性种子品种，并向种子公司反馈实际生长表现（例如产量不足、甜度欠缺、酸度过高等数据），种子公司据此进一步回交改良，历经数年筛选出理想品系后，种植户才会正式签订合同进行商业化量产。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 番茄风味育种研发闭环 accDescr: 展示种子公司与种植户之间通过杂交育种、试种测试与反馈改良达成商业化种植的完整流程。 subgraph RND["研发与育种"] A["种子公司杂交育种"] B["实验性种系产出"] end subgraph Field["农场测试与反馈"] C["种植商小规模试种"] D{"风味与产量评估"} E["反馈调节<br/>(酸甜比/抗病性/单产)"] end subgraph Production["商业化落地"] F["签订生产合同与大面积种植"] end A --> B B --> C C --> D D -- "表现未达标" --> E E --> A D -- "表现优异" --> F ``` 在像 Sunset 这样的头部企业研发基地中，随时都在试种数百种形态各异的番茄：从纯黑色的番茄，到带有艳丽条纹的 Firebird 品种，再到外形精致可口的大黄蜂番茄（Bumblebee）。与此相伴的是社交媒体（尤其是 Instagram）对食品消费风尚的重塑。从早年网络疯传的粉红酱（Pink Sauce），到如今各类网红零食番茄（snacking tomatoes），社交媒体的视觉传播正在直接反哺农业育种与餐饮需求。分销商和厨师必须紧跟这些线上热点，以便随时调整菜单和进货方向。 --- ### `55:00` 草莓育种困境与纽约冷链物流的“温区地狱” 除了番茄，Jacob 还带来了风味浓郁的高品质鲜草莓，这引发了主持人对“超市草莓为何索然无味”的共鸣。Jacob 指出，草莓极度娇嫩易烂，且天敌众多（鸟类、蛞蝓、鹿、家犬等都会啃食），种植和手工采摘难度极高。自20世纪六七十年代以来，以加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校（UC Davis）和佛罗里达大学为代表的研究机构，主导了美国本土草莓种子的选育方向。为了满足全国消费者“一年四季随时吃到草莓”的需求，育种重心彻底倒向了“耐储运与功能性”——果实必须足够硬实，才能经受住从加州冷藏卡车长途运输五天到达纽约的颠簸，其代价则是牺牲了草莓应有的天然浓郁糖酸比。 谈到将果蔬送入纽约市场，冷链物流（cold chain）面临着极其苛刻的物理与地理挑战。把卡车开过乔治·华盛顿大桥进入布朗克斯区的亨茨角（Hunts Point）不仅成本昂贵，还要应对不同温区的微调控制： | 农产品 / 品类 | 理想储运温度（华氏度） | 特点与储运挑战 | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **高风味精品草莓**（如 Sweetest Batch） | 33°F – 34°F | 极度娇嫩，易变质，稍高于此温区货架期断崖式下跌 | | **肉类与乳制品** | 32°F – 34°F | 需严格低温保鲜 | | **优质番茄 / 洋葱** | 48°F – 52°F | 温度过低会导致风味冷害沉睡、口感沙化；温度过高会过熟软烂 | 在实际冷链配送中，分销商常常需要将草莓与番茄装在同一辆货车中配送给同一家餐厅，在狭小空间内精准维护不同温区的冷链，是整个生鲜供应链中最核心、最考验运筹能力的运营难题。 --- ### `58:00` 录音后记：信息不对称下的零售定价权 录音结束后，节目主持人在总结中探讨了产业链中显著的“信息不对称”现象。拥有专业采购团队的餐厅买手和名厨属于“信息优势方”，能够实时洞悉大宗批发市场的行情脉动与真实成本波动；而普通零售消费者则处于绝对的“信息劣势”。 主持人们联系到此前与芝加哥烘焙师的对谈，指出超市和零售商往往利用大众媒体对“通胀与番茄涨价”的铺天盖地报道，顺水推舟地上调终端售价。当市场批发成本回落时，零售端却往往延迟降价或维持高位，将高利润固化。由于普通消费者既无精力也无渠道像专业买手那样每日比价，只能默认接受高昂的零售标价，印证了零售巨头在生鲜定价机制中实际享有的强大掌控力。 ### `01:00:00` 从“拳头大的红番茄”到零食水果：品种大爆发与社交媒体美学 在与嘉宾探讨完餐饮端与批发端的农产品成本之后，两位主持人开起了玩笑：如果去杂货店买菜太贵，解决之道或许是“干脆顿顿下馆子，彻底不去杂货铺”——虽然省下了食材原材料采购成本，但显然省不下昂贵的人工成本。回到采访内容本身，两人对当下番茄品种的爆发式增长感慨万千。Joe 指出，如今形成了一个庞大的“零食番茄（snacking tomatoes）”消费群体，这在过去是完全不存在的现象。他的孩子们平时非常喜欢把小番茄当作零食吃，但在他们小时候，别说小孩子，就连成年人也根本没有“这种番茄特别好吃、适合空口吃”的认知。在过去的记忆里，货架上就只有一种被称为“番茄”的东西——一个拳头大小、通体通红的标准果实。这种大众消费习惯与整个番茄基础市场的转变，实际上是一场发生不久的新演变。 Tracy 对此深表同感，回忆起自己童年时也完全没有吃这种迷你小番茄的印象。她进一步指出，社交媒体（如 Instagram）对食物文化的冲击在番茄品类中体现得淋漓尽致。艳丽奇特的色彩赋予了农产品极强的拍照打卡属性，比如黑番茄在镜头下就格外吸睛。Tracy 聊起自己最喜欢的品种之一名叫“埃塞俄比亚黑番茄”（Ethiopian Black），但它其实并不是纯黑色的，带有一层深色条纹，而且其原产地据说实际上是乌克兰；如果想要追求真正的深黑色外观，还可以选择靛蓝番茄（Indigo tomatoes）。聊到这里，两人打趣道必须赶紧打住话题，否则节目就要彻底沦为家庭园艺与番茄品种大盘点了。Tracy 还随口提到，自己家里也种了番茄，只希望它们能在接下来一周的降温冷空气中顺利挺过来。 - **零食番茄的普及化**：以往大众印象中的番茄仅作为烹饪食材（拳头大小的传统红番茄），而如今专用于直接鲜食的迷你番茄已成长为一个庞大的消费品类。 - **视觉驱动与小众品种**：社交网络（Instagram）的兴起推动了外观吸睛的新奇品种流行，如带深色条纹的“埃塞俄比亚黑番茄”（实际起源于乌克兰）以及色泽极深的“靛蓝番茄”（Indigo tomatoes）。 --- ### `01:01:15` 节目收尾、社群互动与赞助商业播报 主持人正式为本期《Odd Lots》收尾。节目向听众介绍了主创团队的社交媒体账号与订阅渠道，并鼓励喜欢番茄话题的听众在各大播客平台留下好评。随后节目播放了三则商业赞助播报，分别涵盖定制推广礼品、医疗健康整合服务以及地区商业投资环境。 - **节目主持与制作团队信息**： - 主持人：Tracy Alloway（X / Twitter：@TracyAlloway）、Joe Weisenthal（X / Twitter：@TheStalwart）。 - 制作人团队：Carmen Rodriguez（@CarmenArmond）、Dashiell Bennett（@Dashbot）、Kael Brooks（@KaleBrooks）以及 Kevin Lozano（@KevinLloydLozano）。 - 社群与订阅：彭博官方主页（bloomberg.com/oddlots）提供每日工作日通讯（Newsletter）及往期节目收听；Discord 交流社群地址为 discord.gg/oddlots；Bloomberg 订阅用户可通过 Apple Podcasts 彭博专属频道收听无广告版本。 - **赞助商播报要点**： - **4imprint**：面向不同预算需求的企业品牌推广定制服务，提供多样化价位选择及“360度保障”，确保订制品准时、准确交付（官网：4imprint.com）。 - **Optum**：针对看病开药慢、预约繁琐等医疗痛点，利用数据与科技打通患者护理、药房管理等各个环节，推动医疗系统向整体互联、降价减负发展（官网：business.optum.com）。 - **密歇根州经济发展署（Team Michigan）**：宣传密歇根州具备韧性与创新力的产业生态、多元人才储备与高生活品质，助力初创公司及跨国集团加速战略增长（官网：michiganbusiness.org）。 ## Notable quotes > `01:50` 我太爱番茄了，天呐，我简直爱死番茄了！ — Joe Weisenthal > `01:50` 知识是知道番茄其实是水果，而智慧是知道不要把它放进水果沙拉里。 — Joe Weisenthal > `10:00` 在主厨所在的位置迎合他们 — Jacob Krempel > `20:00` 像火箭一样蹿升，却像羽毛一样飘落 — Jacob Krempel > `25:00` 像火箭一样上升，像石头一样坠落 — Jacob Krempel > `25:00` 我知道这批货的真实底价是多少 — Jacob Krempel > `30:00` 无聊但便宜的普通番茄 — Joe Weisenthal / Tracy Alloway > `32:32` 如果不讨论物流和瓦楞纸箱，这就不算是一期真正的《Odd Lots》节目。 — Jacob Krempel > `33:38` 克罗格消费者的真实诉求 — Jacob Krempel > `35:50` 今年的供给还能按旧成本兜底，但在洽谈明年的采购合同时，暴涨的化肥成本必须摆上台面重新定价 — Jacob Krempel > `45:00` 扯起不可抗力大旗 — Jacob Krempel > `01:00:00` 干脆顿顿下馆子，彻底不去杂货铺 — Joe Weisenthal / Tracy Alloway ## Mentioned Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, Jacob Krempel, Kevin Murphy, TJ Murphy, Joe Doria, Andy Balducci, Anthony Bourdain, Aaron, Carmen Rodriguez, Dashiell Bennett, Kael Brooks, Kevin Lozano, Baldor Specialty Foods, Balducci's, Sysco, Kroger, L&M, Girl & Dug Farm, Mastronardi Produce, Sunset, Flavor Bombs, Hass Avocado Board, Tomato Bank, HelloFresh, USDA, NAFTA, 4imprint, Public.com, Optum, Team Michigan, Bloomberg, Odd Lots, Kitchen Confidential, Cherokee Purple, Brandywine, Fourth of July, Baby Yoda, Cider Pop, Firebird, Sun Gold, Atomic Tomato, Bumblebee, Sweetest Batch, Ethiopian Black, Indigo tomatoes ## Video description <p data-renderer-start-pos="116">In April, the price of tomatoes was around $2.69 per pound &mdash; the highest seen in some four decades. And tomatoes aren't the only food getting more expensive. From cauliflower to lettuce, fresh produce is spiking all over the place. So what's driving the price spike? And what can tomatoes teach us teach about America's political economy including changes in trade and tariffs? Our guest today is Jacob Krempel, senior vice president of procurement and merchandising at the wholesale food distributor Baldor, and an expert in securing fresh produce. We talk to him about where America's tomato supply actually comes from, why consumers are paying more and more, how restaurants navigate price fluctuations, and the influx of novel new tomato varieties.</p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="870">Read more:<br><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-10/new-york-power-dining-restaurant-scene-gains-new-entry-for-social-media-age?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">The Recipe for a Power Restaurant Has Changed</a><br><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-10/food-companies-turn-to-nostalgia-to-drive-sales?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">The Latest Snack Innovations Are Basically Just Creamsicles and Chex Mix</a></p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="1001">Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a></p> <p data-renderer-start-pos="1173"><a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a><br><strong data-renderer-mark="true">Join the conversation:</strong> <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">discord.gg/oddlots</a></p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p> [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/bb971e9b-4530-4ff9-bd68-b46500d94544/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

[1:50] Joe Weisenthal: 我太爱番茄了，天呐，我简直爱死番茄了！ [1:50] Joe Weisenthal: 知识是知道番茄其实是水果，而智慧是知道不要把它放进水果沙拉里。 [10:00] Jacob Krempel: 在主厨所在的位置迎合他们 [20:00] Jacob Krempel: 像火箭一样蹿升，却像羽毛一样飘落 [25:00] Jacob Krempel: 像火箭一样上升，像石头一样坠落 [25:00] Jacob Krempel: 我知道这批货的真实底价是多少 [30:00] Joe Weisenthal / Tracy Alloway: 无聊但便宜的普通番茄 [32:32] Jacob Krempel: 如果不讨论物流和瓦楞纸箱，这就不算是一期真正的《Odd Lots》节目。 [33:38] Jacob Krempel: 克罗格消费者的真实诉求 [35:50] Jacob Krempel: 今年的供给还能按旧成本兜底，但在洽谈明年的采购合同时，暴涨的化肥成本必须摆上台面重新定价 [45:00] Jacob Krempel: 扯起不可抗力大旗 [60:00] Joe Weisenthal / Tracy Alloway: 干脆顿顿下馆子，彻底不去杂货铺

[0:00] Joe Weisenthal: knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, but wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad [25:00] Jacob Krempel: up like a rocket, down like a rock [32:00] Jacob Krempel: salad bowl of America [40:00] Joe Weisenthal: Baby Yoda [40:00] Joe Weisenthal: Cider Pop [40:00] Joe Weisenthal: Firebird [40:00] Joe Weisenthal: Sun Gold [40:00] Joe Weisenthal: Atomic [40:00] Joe Weisenthal: Cream Sausage [40:00] Joe Weisenthal: Striped Tiger [55:00] Jacob Krempel: Sweetest Batch [60:00] Joe Weisenthal: a red thing that was like the size of your fist [60:00] Tracy Alloway: Ethiopian Black

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Learn more at thehartford.com slash risk mitigation. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Oddbots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. Joe, I know you love tomatoes. I love tomatoes. Oh, my God. I love tomatoes. I love tomatoes so much This is the episode This is Joe talking about how he loves tomatoes Well there is a funny one because this is a you episode You like oh let do a tomato episode which I glad you did because I love tomatoes so much But you're going to make it your episode, aren't you? But I don't know anything about tomatoes. I just love eating them. When I was a kid growing up in Exurban, Illinois, I had terrible tomatoes growing up, so I hated tomatoes. From the supermarket? From the grocery store. So I thought tomatoes are like the worst vegetable on the planet. Well, they're not. Well, are you going to correct yourself and say they're not a vegetable? They're a fruit. You know, so I'm just going to go on because I'm going to take this episode over. But like, you know, I've once heard someone say that like knowledge is knowing that tomato is a vegetable and wisdom is knowing not to put tomato in a fruit salad. But I've like come to like, like tomatoes are so delicious. There are some varietals that I absolutely would put in a fruit salad. No, no, I know this is wrong. And so these tomatoes that we, no, no, no. Like when you, have you tried one of the tomatoes? I have. I still would not put it in a fruit salad. I absolutely would. I love tomatoes. Anyway, sorry. So we got to talk about tomatoes, perhaps not in the way you have been so far, but. Let's spend one minute talking about how tomato prices are really high. Yes. And then the other 45 minutes we going to talk about how delicious tomatoes are That right Okay So the genesis of this entire episode is that as you will have heard tomato prices are really high right now So I think we looking at something like a 40 increase year over year And I just saw some new data that out this morning. So there are a lot of tomato headlines floating around saying that tomato prices are at a record $2.69 a pound. So tomatoes are getting kind of expensive, which is bad news for you. It's really bad news for me because I'm addicted to them. I am price insensitive. So it doesn't matter how high the price of tomatoes get. It will not affect my volume at all. So that's just straight money out of my pocket. It is not bad news for me because I just installed five raised beds, big raised beds, dedicated all to tomatoes. And I just planted them out yesterday. And I'm very excited. You should be excited, too, because you know you'll get some. Tracy always brings me tomatoes at some point in the summer, and they're always delicious. I've got a really big selection this year. Cherokee, Brandywine, all the classics and some new things. Fourth of July, I've never tried before. I don't mean to get all like Bubba Gump and just start listing tomato varieties here. But tomatoes are on my mind and I think they're on a lot of other people's minds just by nature of the price increase. So we should figure out what's actually going on here. I cannot wait to just talk tomatoes for the next hour. [5:00] You're not just going to say how good they are over and over, right? I might. Okay, well, I am very happy to say that we do, in fact, have the perfect guest. We're going to be speaking with Jacob Kremple. He is the SVP of procurement and merchandising over at Baldor Specialty. So thank you so much for coming on All Thoughts. Yeah, absolutely. Very excited to be here. I have quite a few friends that are flabbergasted that I get to be on All Thoughts of all things. So I'm excited to talk tomatoes. This is the perfect guest for the perfect moment. Can you tell us what Baldor actually does? Yeah, so Baldor is a 30-year-old food service distribution company based up in the Hunts Point Market area of Bronx here in New York City. We distribute food from Maine to Northern Virginia, send out about 500 trucks a day with food, mostly to food service restaurants, right? So about 70% restaurants, 30% independent retail or other wholesalers. We got our start, actually, you know, Balducci's in Greenwich Village. Yeah, sure. So Andy Balducci and Joe Doria. Joe Doria was their produce sourcing guy. And he was always out there looking for the best and most unique varieties that he could possibly find. And so suddenly they saw a lot of chefs that they knew in the area shopping at their store had a great idea of starting a wholesale distribution company So they took Balducci and Doria combined them together That actually how you get Baldor which is a fun story So that was in the 70s 80s That business grew expanded started to blow up They spun it off as a separate company in 91 when Andy Balducci's son-in-law, Kevin Murphy, took over the business. He ran it until about 2013 when he passed away from cancer and his son, TJ, is our owner now and CEO, and he's been running the company since then. Within the realm of food distribution, if someone asked me to name all the food distributors, I would be able to name Cisco. We've done at least one episode on them. I might be able to name United Natural Foods, and then I would be able to name Beldor. And Beldor would be the only one that I would associate in my mind, maybe because you've done a good job with branding, etc. It's like, OK, these are high quality ingredients rather than just food distribution. Who are your clients? Who do you sell into at Beldor? Yeah, we sell just about anybody, right? But I think we've made our bread and butter as this, I know I listened to your Cisco episode, right? And broad liners that you were talking about on that podcast. We view ourselves as a high liner. So we're gonna carry a wide assortment. We carry everything from meat and dairy to produce which is what we had our start in and that our wheelhouse for sure But we have experts in all of those areas And our job is to build a curated assortment of maybe 7 SKUs versus a Cisco carrying 20 plus So the merchants on my team they just have this insatiable appetite to go out and find the best produce, the best meat that they possibly can to fit whatever that customer's need is, whether it is something that's more commodity based, like a basic romaine to high specialty variety tomatoes, like some of the ones that I brought. And what's the mix in terms of restaurants versus grocery stores or restaurants versus whatever else? Yeah. So we're about 70 percent, maybe a little bit more in restaurants. OK. And there we service everything from the Michelin star partners that we have, that we have a lot of long existing relationships with some of the top chefs in the areas that we serve to your local bodegas or bagel shops as well. So how does the relationship with supermarkets or restaurants typically work? Would it be I'm a restaurant and I don't know, I want to do a caprese salad. And so I need some really good tomatoes. Do I call you up and I ask you specifically to source tomatoes for the salad? Or do you have like a catalog that I start flipping through or? Yeah. So you go to BaudorFood.com, right? And you go onto our website. And from there you can see our full assortment And then once you sign up as a customer then you able to see pricing and availability and some of those things to make the decisions of what you possibly want to buy We also have our sales reps that are partnering with a specific set amount of accounts that bring that white glove service We want to make sure that you have somebody that you can call and pick up the phone and say, hey, I want to do a Caprese salad. Where are my tomatoes? Yeah, or yes, exactly. We get mostly those calls, but also some of the innovation calls as well of like, I'm looking to do a Caprese. What would you suggest? Right. And so between that high touch white glove service that our sales teams provides, as well as our merchandising expertise and storytelling on the website that we love to do, we're really able to maybe bring that picture full circle a little bit better than maybe some others out there to really allow you to tell that story on your menu. So I don't really know that much about the restaurant industry, but I read Kitchen Confidential. And there in that book, Anthony Bourdain talks a lot about like, you know, he'll play off the suppliers. He's like, oh, this guy could get me this fish at this price. What can you do? But this strikes me as very relevant in the time of high price volatility, which we've particularly seen over the last several years. Talk about the duration of contracts and how long they can last. I never seem to be able to get clear answers on this. Can a restaurant say lock in a price [10:00] six months? Is it week by week? What are these relationships and how stable are they? Yeah, that's a trade secret joke. No, I'm kidding. No, I think we want to meet the chef where they are. And so we offer a wide variety of opportunities of how they might want to price with us. Anything from daily pricing to weekly pricing to depending on the size of the restaurant chain, we will offer longer term contracts as well. But I do think there is some push and play left in this industry of a chef wants to be able to price shop a little bit. And so a lot of our customers, our view is that we provide that value, not just in making sure that you have a good value on the price, but that our service is way above par. We're gonna deliver on time. Our cutoffs are the latest that you can get from any distributor. So if you're a chef in New York City, at 11 o'clock at night, you can go on our website and still order product where most other competitors- And what time would he get there the next morning? Depending on their account and their delivery time as early as 6 a.m. Wow. Yeah. So are you seeing a lot of customers at the moment trying to lock in tomato prices, given where they seem to have gone to recently? This tomato pricing thing is unique as far as like how expensive it got. But I say in general in produce this is like a very much a normal working environment for my team of just prices spiking and going crazy here and there And I think a lot of that is produce demand especially in the U is rather inelastic in the short term. And it's so reliant on weather and acreage grown and the production out of that acreage that you see very wild swings in markets all the time, right? Like tomatoes was the last thing to pop. Yeah, I guarantee this summer you're going to be hearing about romaine again, because that's already almost $100 a case right now, which is insane for Romaine because of bad weather in California and avocados as well. Avocados went from $30 a case to $80 a case in literally the span of a week in the last week. Joe, did I ever tell you, for some reason, I'm on the Has Avocado Board email distribution list and they send out really good updates about what's going on in the avocado market. I think it's because I was writing about Bitcoin prices and avocado correlation. And like somehow I got automatically signed up to this thing. Prices of tomatoes. There was actually a Bloomberg piece just yesterday. Prices up 40% from a year ago. Let's decompose the price of a tomato. So I buy a tomato and it 40 more Like you know how much of that is transport How much of that is fertilizer How much of that is land et cetera Like what goes into the price of a tomato and what is the main driver of swings year over year? Yeah. So let's maybe break this down a couple of different ways. You have your retail price point that a customer sees. Let's save that for a second. Let's talk about the wholesale price of like what a going price of a tomato should be if you're going to go directly to a farmer and buy half a truck of tomatoes. Yeah. Right. For that piece, there's all the costs they have to grow. Right. So you're talking fertilizer, seed, labor, water, the production costs around their facility, the energy and the trucking. Right. Those are the base things that go into growing a tomato. Right. So they have a base cost that they have to hit every year to just break even. Yeah. Right. The way that market works is then usually typically they're going to contract a certain portion of it to try to make sure they get a guaranteed return to make some profit. and then they're gonna call that 60, 70%. The rest are gonna try to play on the open market, which means whatever the USDA price is, going rate for what a wholesale tomato should be, that's what we're gonna sell the rest of the 30% at, right? To try to catch some of these upswings and actually make some profit, right? Like a lot of these growers that we deal with this is a razor thin margin business just like ours is as well And groceries as well right Like your food cost is such a huge part of the cost for whether it a grower, a retailer, a food service distribution company, you're playing in margins of single digits, right? What happened specifically this time was if you look at winter growing of tomatoes, you can't grow a tomato in New Jersey in the winter. You can't grow it in Illinois in the winter, right? You're going to be growing tomatoes in Florida. We'll get to the greenhouse conversation a little bit, but yeah. Okay. Right. But your traditional field tomatoes are going to be grown in Florida and in Mexico. And you think of, okay, for December until the spring starts, right? So call around this time when some of the more local programs are going further south. If you needed a hundred tomatoes for the U.S. market, 30 of them are going to come from Florida. 70 of them are going to come from Mexico. So about 70% of our tomato production in the winter is done Mexico now, 30% in the US. You go back pre-NAFTA or right around when NAFTA started, that was completely reversed. It was about 80% domestic, 20% Mexico, which we can also dive into, which is a fascinating story. The globalization of produce and we talk about flavor and quality, it's a very interesting story as well. When this freeze, so there are two freezes that happened in Florida this winter. That took 80% of the crop in Florida [15:00] out completely. Blooms fell off. Vines died. It was not a great situation, right? Over $150 million worth of tomatoes lost. Again, produce demand is rather inelastic. So you took a market that needed 100 tomatoes and you took 26 out of the equation and you're left with the 74 tomatoes that are left for 100, right? And anytime that happens, that's where you see these spikes. So it's less about the input costs themselves. Got it. At this point, I would say a majority of it was weather related. Now, the other thing is they're always going to grow a little bit more than what we need for the market or their best guess. But it's a very segmented industry. So nobody knows exactly how much acreage everybody's putting in. The USDA does some projections. But in general, we did see Mexico decline their production a little bit this year, probably three to four percent. Doesn't sound like a lot. But when they're supplying 70 percent of the U.S. market in the winter, that was actually quite a bit. Well, that was because of the anti-dumping tariff that was put in place of 17% and change that was implemented back in July of last year. So it's a long history between Florida growers and Mexico growers about the price of tomatoes and what a fair cost to grow actually is And a lot of accusations of dumping by Mexican growers into the U So again you think you know NAFTA in the mid 90s and the start of more free trade. That's when Mexico, you think of Sinaloa, Sonora, Jalisco. Those are amazing growing regions with a ton of land that they had available that had a lot less chance of a freeze like Florida does, right? And so once that, they were already growing tomatoes for the U.S. market. We're about 20% then, but they started to really invest in growing much more down there for the U.S. market once trade became a lot more predictable. When that happened, they also started getting into shade house or greenhouse, right? So shade house is basically like netting that you would put over a massive tomato field. You think of these like vines and tomatoes, acres of fields that are covered by netting. And that sort of helps protect from the sun, but also from bugs as well. And you see that with a shade house in Mexico, you get almost three to four X the return per acre on the amount of tomatoes that you can produce versus if you just left it out in the sun. So they evolved into shade house and then you got into greenhouse, which was like perfect growing conditions. They took the technology they were using in Canada in the Leamington area to do all the snacking tomatoes and things that were starting to grow and be a bigger thing Took that down south into Mexico started building these big greenhouses so they could get year round production down there as well And between those two, they're producing a significant amount more per acre than maybe a traditional field grown tomato would be. Right. So in the 90s and into the 2000s, there were accusations by Florida growers of dumping by Mexico growers. There was the Mexico defense was our cost of produce is lower. We have lower labor costs. We're getting better yields. So this isn't actually something that like we're economically selling lower in our home country versus you or not. I think there's there's truth on both sides to that for sure. But we have these suspension agreements in place that had floors on tomato pricing that was allowed to be charged in the U.S. from Mexico growers. that changed last year in July when they the U.S. government reopened the case and put the anti-dumping tariff on Mexico. And that change created more uncertainty than maybe the floor would have under the old suspension agreements that were in place. So between those two things, I think it was a little bit of a perfect storm of you decimated the Florida crop. Mexico didn't have a ton of extra production left available. And you see this crazy spike where a case of Tomatoes on average went from in April much closer to the five year average to May was 65 was a case on average for the whole month and very high We see you next time so you can find the right fit for any audience, purpose, or budget. You can customize it all. Your logo, your message, your look. And many items come with no setup charge to help you save. 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They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optim.com to see how. Would you expect prices to actually go up even more from here? So in June, we're back to the five-year average already. Towards the end of May, end of June, it started to drop again. But this is where you get into the retail component. Everybody says retailers, they take their prices up like a rocket and down like a feather. And so retailers will use this as an opportunity to see is there a new price that they they happy with where maybe I going to charge the consumer a little bit more than I traditionally used to when these markets are this cheap because the customer is still going to pay might not be a tomato but maybe a tomato when I used to have to go to right If you think of grocery retail economics, it's changed significantly over the last 15 years. So if you think of like how much home delivery or click and collect, like pick up at the store, they're much more advertising and marketing companies now where they're selling customer data to their suppliers about what are customers actually purchasing or not. All these things cost money for them to stand up and run. Right. And so I think what you're seeing is while grocery EBITDA is about the same, they're all still that, you know, traditionally was four to six. Now you might see the larger retailers and that's still maybe four to six, five to seven range. As margin. As margin. OK, yeah. At the end of the day, when you take all their costs into account, right, they have a lot more expense on the books in ways that they didn't have before because they're having to pay for the additional labor and tech infrastructure and warehouses to be able to do the direct delivery. The more like Amazon style approach that everybody is used to of like, I want something today and I want it now. So just to be clear the margins are stable because on the one side of the ledger their costs have gone up build out all this tech But on the other side they have data that they can sell and that is monetizable and they roughly even out And that how you get the stable margin Yep. And they're also charging you a higher price as well. Right. Like I think some of the consumer is definitely paying for some of their want of being able to get stuff more on demand. Right. Right. As well as the variety that they're expected to carry a grocery store in the 70s. produce department was probably 75 to 100 SKUs. A grocery store today is 300 to 500 SKUs in their produce department. So they're expected to carry this high variety, all these unique things that comes with more shrink as well. Right. So they have to balance all of that. So with those economic changes for them, I do think what we're seeing is that retailers are tending to hold on to prices longer than they traditionally would to try to help pay for some of this. And that's where you think a beef is also one of the things everybody's talking about, how crazy beef prices are and they are insane i was at a restaurant the other weekend in the city and they had a strip steak on the menu for like 120 oh my god for a strip steak i love a strip steak but that's crazy it's yeah but people are still paying that which is crazy like the the demand for beef is not slowing down even though these prices are getting so high but if you look at retail versus wholesale the cutout the difference between the retail price of beef and the wholesale price of beef is it the highest that it's [25:00] then both in a dollar perspective and a percent perspective. So go back 20 years, the difference between the price per pound of beef at wholesale and retail is probably 30%. Now it's probably closer to 40, 45%. Really? Yeah. So again, retailers are sort of like building on this momentum of this idea of like this, you know, lack of consumer knowledge of what the market really is. And that's something we can't play in the food service side of the business. We're up like a rocket, down like a rock because our chefs and some of the buying teams that they have are much more knowledgeable about markets than the average consumer. Interesting. So if they see high tomato prices in the headlines, they're not going to be fooled thinking that like, oh, it's going to go up even further from here. They're like, all right, the spike's done. Why are you still charging me this amount? They're going to log on to the USDA website and look at prices. They're going to be talking with some of our farmers and growers about field projections as well with some of them. And so, yeah, it's a much more savvy buyer than maybe the traditional, you know, American retail consumer. It's interesting to think that, you know, one of the promises of the Internet was like, oh, the customer is going to be able to be so well informed. Right. And they going to know like they going to be able to find the best price And there probably is that to some extent Right That there are customers who are like extremely well informed and can find the best price But the part that they didn talk about was that the retailer would be very well informed about the customer and that they would be just as savvy and have all kinds of counter tactics to counter the customer's ability to learn about the price. Right. And not to get all antitrust, but if the customer has limited options for buying tomatoes, it's not like you can go into a supermarket armed with your knowledge of the USDA website and start negotiating. Although that would be fun. I can't say I haven't tried that before. It doesn't work. Oh, interesting. All right. I do complain to the head produce clerk at our store every once in a while about the price of this. I know the real price of this. Like, come on, guys. What's the deal with disease in tomatoes? Because I see that mentioned a little bit in relation to Mexico. And my assumption nowadays is that basically every major crop in the world is dealing with some sort of very troublesome disease or pest or something like that. Is it the same for tomatoes? Yeah, for sure. And I think that created some, I'd say, pre-freeze impact in general on the tomato industry where acreage and production was probably slightly down overall mostly in greenhouses They were dealing with a couple of different viruses that were sweeping through the more traditional greenhouse varieties of mostly your snacking tomatoes right that they were not used to and didn really expect to have to deal with And those viruses were decimating those greenhouses where they'd have to tear everything out, soil included, and just replant and start everything from the beginning in these greenhouses. So tomato pricing, especially on more of the snacking or high flavor variety things that you would see in a grocery store, have been pretty volatile for a while now because of this. They've introduced some new varieties that are very promising and have slowed the impact of this already. But it's mother nature at the end of the day, right? And it's a continually evolving mother nature that you're always going to be dealing with something new as a grower. So let's talk about the quote tomato price, because there isn't actually a tomato price because there isn't actually a tomato. And like we have one kind and here's a box. And I think there's a few different types of tomatoes just within this one box alone. So I sort of a two part question. The first part is how correlated are tomato prices? Like whether we're talking about like a New Jersey beefsteak tomato or one of these like generally speaking is there a sort of stable relationship between tomato prices Or do you see like you know the big fat red ones might be pricing in a very different trajectory than say these multicolor snacking tomatoes Yeah, they all interplay with each other a little bit. I would say you do have more complementary or substitutable tomatoes, right? So if you think of like a round tomato, like a New Jersey beefsteak and a Roma tomato, those are pretty interchangeable. So in Florida, what happened was it was a huge wipeout of rounds. And so it created a lot of pressure on the Roma market as well. And so you saw that explode. And then this one was so bad that anybody was trying to get any tomato they could get. So you did see it start to affect some of the more cherry tomatoes or vine ripe tomatoes that you would see out there. I'd say in general, there's some interplay. It all depends on, again, supply and demand. If there's not a ton of rounds to go around, then Romas are going to get pushed up. If there's not a ton of Romas to go around, then everybody's going to switch into the the high flavor stuff. So then speaking of the high flavor stuff, so it's like, you know, I'm addicted to them. My children really like them. Do you see at the firm level, essentially a redistribution of acreage towards the high value, high margin stuff such that they're just not as a percent or just the whole like not grill? [30:00] as much of like the frankly like boring tomatoes period that like there is just less because i have to imagine the more margins higher price for some of these that is like well why are we planting the the cheap normie tomatoes yeah i think cheap normie tomatoes when i was a kid we didn't know about that yeah we didn't know about these tomatoes yeah exactly and that's that's sort of like the evolution of the tomato market as well is yeah there's still a consumer for a basic round tomato or vine ripe tomato aroma, right? And there's a use for that. You're going to put that on a sandwich or you're going to make a salsa out of it or something like that, right? Again, there's consumers that want that basic tomato, maybe the more mild flavor. There's going to be a guaranteed quality and look a certain way and always be the perfect round shape that when they're in their restaurant or their production facility, they're always going to get the same yield out of it, right? What's interesting to me on the consumer side is definitely, yeah, the explosion of these flavored tomatoes. And I think what you're seeing here is that growers that might've grown traditionally cherry tomatoes or other type of tomato varieties are replacing them with these more sweeter varieties because they know that customers like these, the snacking tomatoes in Vogue, right? People will just eat these as a snack versus only on a salad or something like that So what you seeing is probably more a replacement of maybe some of the older varieties of these that don drive as much flavor with the newer ones Earlier I went to look up tomato prices on the terminal and I just realized there a Japanese bank called Tomato Bank. I just learned that. And it has an amazing logo. I would bank it just off the brand identity. What's the correlation between fresh tomato prices and canned tomato prices? If fresh ones are going up, would it be reasonable to assume that the canned ones are going to go up as well? No, they're completely different markets, I would say. So a lot of your canned production type tomatoes are grown mostly in California. Different varieties, different subsets, completely different growing regions for the most part. They do grow some processed stuff in Florida as well, but you would see maybe some pressure on that. But again, they're very different supply chains and production. So those are also longer term contracts that producers put in place. So I think you see them able to cost control maybe a little bit tighter than the fresh industry can. So one of the, okay, so you talked about the weather as being a major disruptor, but we know and this is something that else comes up we know that another well there actually two things that we talk about a lot on the podcast One is the cardboard box that this set of tomatoes are in but then also freight costs and that actual truck and diesel and other things. We know that just trucking is on a big upsurge, particularly in like the last six months. What do you see at Bell Door on the sort of pure logistics element? And how much would you say when I buy a little case of tomatoes, am I paying for the shipping component or the trucking component? For sure. This wouldn't be an odd lot podcast without talking about logistics, right? It's been rather extreme lately, obviously, with oil prices going up and tightening availability within the trucking industry as well. If you think of some of the crackdown on immigration, sort of like truckers that are crossing the border from Mexico, we are seeing the supply of trucks shrink a little bit as well. So those two things together have caused prices to explode where a team drive, so two drivers on a truck so that you can alternate so you can get it from the West Coast to the East Coast in the shortest amount of time. So a team drive truck that we had run from Salinas, California, the veg capital, the salad bowl of America, right? Eight months ago might have been $10,000, $11,000 for that. We saw prices a couple of weeks ago as high as which I have never seen in my whole career I grew up in this industry My dad was a produce buyer I grew up with him taking me out to fields and meeting with growers and seeing him be able to build those relationships and partnerships. And that's what got me interested in this industry was doing that with him. I've never in my whole career seen prices that high before. Wait, now I'm curious. Did you ever think about going into farming directly? No, I did work for a grower shipper for a couple of years out of college, L&M in North Carolina, to get that experience on the grower side and understand that. But no, my love was that sort of anytime my dad would go and meet with a grower, he was always talking about Kroger's customer and what he needed for the customer. It wasn't what he needed for him as running this buying office they had in Vero Beach, Florida that bought all the produce for East Coast and a lot of their imports. He was a buyer for Kroger. Yeah. Okay. Yep. So he ran their produce buying office that they had in Florida that managed all the produce buying for the East Coast. So, yeah, he'd take me out of school when I was in kindergarten on a Friday and we'd go to, you know, really sexy, amazing places like Immokalee, Florida or Moultrie, Georgia to go look at produce. We'd stop and play around a golf or go to a baseball game or some type of event on the way to make it interesting. That sounds really nice. But I'd sit there and listen to him and everything was about the customer. [35:00] to him. Right. And so like for him, he won if his customer won and if his grower won. Right. And part of what attracted me to come to Baldera last year was this mindset that Baldera had was the same thing. Like for me, it's all about making sure we can meet the need of our customer, wherever that is, whether that's a commodity, Romaine Hart, you can get anywhere to a girl in Duck Tomato, like I brought here, that's unique to us and incredible flavor and just an amazing story of Aaron and his family and what they've done. So, you know, to answer your question, I always wanted to be able to, I don't know, build something to bring value to the customer. Right. And for me, that was sort of following in his footsteps, I guess, a little bit in doing this. I want to ask about tomato strains. But before I do, I need to ask about something else we've been discussing on the podcast, which is fertilizer prices. So if there's one thing I know about tomatoes from growing them myself, they're heavy feeders, right? Like they need a lot of biodegradable material off of which to actually grow and feed. Would you expect higher fertilizer costs in the future to start feeding into the retail price of tomatoes? Yeah, absolutely. As you think about contracting cycles within tomatoes you know retailers will be renegotiating costs throughout the year depending on different growing regions et cetera Right now growers have been able to most of pre right and especially the bigger ones So their fertilizer costs is pretty locked in at this point. But what you're going to see over the next six months is that's going to start to evaporate. So at Baldor, our big contracting season is coming up towards the end of the summer where we try to lock with a lot of our growers to make sure we can get consistency and supply for our customers. Our growers are already talking about the cost of fertilizer with us and saying, we've got you covered now, but come contracting for next year. This is something we definitely have to talk about. So I do expect it to affect that price, but then it comes down to how much are we willing to take versus how much does a retailer have to pass on to a consumer. Thank you or budget You can customize it all your logo your message your look and many items come with no setup charge to help you save. And if you're really watching the bottom line, you'll find standout choices at every price point. So you can make a real impact while staying on budget. 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They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. [40:00] patients. And those prescriptions, Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. So you mentioned that this box of tomatoes we have in front of us is a company called Girl and Doug, which I hadn't heard of. Yeah. And you said they have an incredible story. I'm on their website right now, and I'm already learning about a bunch of tomato. Are they varietals? varieties varieties there's a baby yoda tomato did you know that well this is part of the fun of buying your seeds every year a cider pop tomato a firebird tomato i knew about the sun gold an atomic tomato when you say okay they have this amazing story like how does a company become like they break through in the tomato market and like such that they're like you know someone might go to their website like what is that story and like how do they have all these like new exciting varietals? When did this become a thing? Yeah, I'd say probably over the last 15 years or so, you've seen a big explosion in the snacking tomato category. And a lot of that was driven by greenhouse production So the ability to grow perfectly indoors with the exact right temperature humidity water control I sure Tracy with your home beds you would love to have that right Oh my God If I could get an irrigation system going that would be a game changer It allows these growers to grow seed varieties that might be a little bit more challenging outdoors, right? And if you think of, especially Aaron and Girl and Doug, these varieties that they have in here, these are highly susceptible to disease. Now, he grows still outdoors shade house and a little bit of greenhouse, but they're unique. They take a little extra TLC, I would say, than a traditional, you know, round tomato. And so with the explosion of greenhouse production, which really started in Holland over there, they're probably 15, 20 years ahead of us. They were growing some of these really cool, unique varieties over there. The seed companies over there are very innovative. And what you saw was U.S. companies understanding this snacking tomato or Canadian companies really understanding the snacking tomato category was a big opportunity. started partnering with a lot of these seed companies over there to trial new things. But how do these new varieties, because there are so many different tomato varieties, right? And a lot of them have very amusing names, like cream sausage or striped tiger or baby Yoda. How do they actually enter I guess like the customer consciousness such that restaurants or supermarkets are asking for these particular varieties or such that you convincing them that this is what they need Yeah, I'd say it's almost the other way around. OK, I would say that it's really the restaurants and then the retailers that are pushing the demand towards the consumer of what they want to buy. I really do think a lot of it starts with restaurants. And if you see something specific on a menu in a restaurant and you try it, you're like, oh, my gosh, I want to try this at home. Right. And so like we view that very much as our wheelhouse at Baldor is our ability to go and find things like this that you'll want to call this a girl and Doug tomato medley on the menu because, you know, something unique that not a lot of your competitors are going to have. And it's this cool story that if a customer asks that hopefully you've talked to your wait staff and they can educate the consumer a little bit about the story of a girl and Doug. Right. And so I think it's less about what the consumer thinks they want or that they've heard about this type of thing. I think it's more they've seen it somewhere and tried it. And then a lot of these bigger tomato companies, Sunset, Masternardi Produce is a big partner of ours. You know, they're one of the most innovative when it comes to seed varieties. They have acres of testing greenhouses where they consistently testing new varieties to see what will be a good mix of flavor and yield and something that unique or colored differently that they think would be a hit with consumers and then they launching it And just like anything it comes down to marketing and advertising and getting it in the customer hand to be able to drive that demand So I've been to one of these multi-acre indoor tomato greenhouses in Leamington, Ontario. And I was there on a very sort of like chilly, drizzly October day. And inside the greenhouse, it felt like the most beautiful spring day, like the dream spring day. And so like it was amazing. But all I could think about was like, this must just cost a fortune in electricity costs to maintain this incredible climate. And the light was so beautiful, obviously. And it's because I believe they have a natural gas pipeline that like feeds a lot of this from the US, goes under the Great Lakes or whatever, or through and then powers this. What about like if we're talking about greenhouse grown tomatoes and the recreation of a beautiful spring day? How much is it like variability in electricity costs or energy costs are going to go into that tomato? Yeah, I mean, it all plays a factor. Right, Joe. And I think with these greenhouses, energy is a huge component. But I would say still just as much. It's the fertilizer and it's a laborer and the production costs as well. So in general, if you think of like tomato markets now, right, that were so high, the growers were not the ones making a killing, right? If you think about they lost 80% of their crop [45:00] Yeah, they're selling a tomato for 100 bucks a case like this is a razor thin margin business for our farmers where, you know, you're going to have great years and you're going to have bad years. And a lot of it comes down to your input costs. And then what's the, you know, USDA going right for tomato based on supply and demand. And so right now is a tough time for these guys because these input cost pressures are so high and there's a lot of pressure from our side to try to keep costs down as much as possible. It's that yin and yang between a customer and a supplier of, you know, I want to try to keep my cost as competitive as possible. They still need to make a good return. We've got to figure out how to how to do that equally with each other. So given razor thin margins for places like restaurants, I assume that if they're serving a salad that is mostly tomatoes, I'm going to go back to the caprese salad example. Although I guess there's mozzarella or which cheese do you use for caprese? Buffalo. Buffalo. Yeah. So I guess that's probably going up as well. Anyway, if the prime component of a particular dish is spiking, basically, and we seem to be experiencing more spikes overall in recent years, right We have beef we have eggs you mentioned romaine lettuce avocados potentially How are restaurants actually managing their menu prices Because I assume they need to know like if they come up with a dish they going to be able to sell it for a reasonable margin in the future. But then if you have such volatility in ingredient prices, that seems really, really difficult to predict. Oh, absolutely it is. But I think if you take a step back a bit, on the restaurant side, the cost of food is about 30% of their overall cost, Right. If you go back to our retail example, a retailer, 75 percent of their cost, 70 to 75 percent of their cost is the cost of the actual food. Right. So let's take a burger in New York. 2019, it was probably 14, 15 bucks on the menu. Today, a good burger on the menu is 22 or 23 dollars. If you look at the actual food cost of that burger, it's probably gone from maybe 350 to 550. That's a two dollar increase. That's huge. that's substantial, right? Like food costs are definitely up significantly, but that's not the full 14 to 22 to 23. We don't talk about it enough, but the other input costs of running a restaurant are up significantly as well, whether it's labor, rent, utilities, that type of stuff as well. Like those pressures you seeing just as much on the cost of the food in a restaurant are pushing their pricing up as much as food is right And so yeah for a chef like their goal is to be as consistent in their food costs as possible. I think that's why a lot of them tend to have that, like, I want you to price me daily or weekly, and I want to shop you around, and I don't want to commit to volume with you type of aspect that we have from some partners. Others go the other way where they want to be able to partner, but you have this sort of like dichotomy in the industry of, you know, different ways of viewing how they keep their food costs honest, right, with their distributor? This makes a lot of sense to me. So the restaurant is fine with very highly variable pricing or doesn't simply because or they'll take that risk of not locking in simply because so much of their costs are X are not the food component. And so they're the whereas for the grocery store or some other retailer, they're the ones because their end price is so correlated to the underlying price. they would be the ones that would care more about longer duration and locking that in. For sure. And in a restaurant, they want to keep their food costs as low as possible. Sure. Like their goal is to keep it as absolutely low as possible. So the most most chefs want to continue to shop around and not make some of those commitments. And in case the market drops out, what you know the tomatoes you know were super high in April May and they coming down in June But you go back to November December they were 20 30 below the five average right And so like do I want to lock to get some guarantee of price? You know, my old days when I was at HelloFresh before coming to Baldor, a meal kit delivery company, we had a cost per meal that we had to hit. I wanted consistency in pricing. I was trying to lock as long as possible. For a lot of chefs, I think some of them want to be able to play that variability in up and down so that they can take advantage of some of the cheaper opportunities to keep their food costs lower so they can eke out a couple more dollars here and there. And they probably think they net out at the end in a net win. But in general, yeah, like food costs is a good component of a restaurant, but there's a lot more that goes into that versus like a retailer, a food service distributor. Most of our cost is the cost of the food. So when that cost changes, it's near term, much more impactful on us for sure. But that's our job as Valdor is to help direct our customer, right? Like we want to make sure they know where markets are heading and what we're able to do to help support them the best that we possibly can. We carry 80 different tomato skews at a given time, right? So we wanna help push you towards the things that are, if you're looking for price, that's the best optimal price, but it's also my job to source multiple regions and find the right partners and ones that, when tomato markets get costly, that they're not just gonna pull active God [50:00] and raise the price significantly that I can still get my contract at a good value. But then I'm also there for them when the markets are super cheap that I'm pumping the volume through them and supporting them, right? It's this give and take relationship. We both have to win. You know, negotiations and joint partnerships really are win-win. And that's really what my team's job is, is to find a way to make sure things are a win-win and we're providing as much value for our end customers as possible by making sure that our suppliers are well taken care of as well. Okay. Well, speaking of direction, what's your favorite tomato variety? What should we be checking out this summer? Let's say price is irrelevant. Price is irrelevant. Yeah, I think when tomato prices are high, any of these prices are high, what I would tell any average retail consumer is like, go outside your comfort zone. There's so much good varietal produce out there, whether it's in your local farmer's market or even in your grocery store now. I'd say mass availability. If you're looking for something in the store, Sunset Masternardi flavor bombs. Incredible. They've got a line of bombs. There are four or five different varieties that they grow. Are those the ones that come in like little packets? Yeah, they're flat little clamshells almost like these berries are, right? Oh, yeah. And usually still on the vine. Those are incredible And some of the top restaurants in New York are using them for like pasta sauce and different things like that It is a main ingredient because the flavor profile on those is just so perfect I'd say for our restaurant consumer or somebody that's not in retail, it's these girl and Doug tomatoes that I brought for you guys. These varieties that they have in this medley are 100% grown for flavor. They're really good. Yeah, they're really good. We were eating some of them before we started recording and we can attest they're delicious. So Aaron, his parents had a floral shop. They retired, bought a produce farm of all things. And he sort of took it over after a while and started growing some of the craziest cool varieties of anything, whether it was microgreens to tomatoes to whatever to sell to chefs. So he's a very like chef focused grower. Right. And so he started with like building some relationships with chefs directly in the city and literally FedExing from San Diego here. Some of those chefs helped connect him with Baldor so that we could get him through our distribution where this might last a little bit better than through FedEx, right? But these tomatoes that he has in the box here, these varieties, again, they're specifically bred for flavor. They're a little bit more susceptible to disease, et cetera, because of that. But to make sure he gets the flavor in them he go through and cull out at least a third of the flowers when they start to produce to make sure that the right nutrients get into each individual tomato to make sure that the flavor is there when it gets to the end consumer Yeah What is the actual process of like you know we want an even sweeter tomato So it's like, okay, some new dimension flavor. Is that happening by the shift in nutrient delivery? Is it happening through some genetic engineering? Is it happening through some sort of like grafting? Like where in the sort of like the R&D of tomato is it happening where these new flavors are coming from? Yeah. So it's almost all crossbreeding. Right. And it's it's done at the mostly at the seed company level. So a lot of these growers will partner with specific seed companies where they find good relationships or that they grow. You know, they're developing seeds in a way that makes sense to them and their business model and the type of flavor that they're looking for. Right. And so a lot of these guys will work specifically with them and test different seed varieties and give them feedback to the seed company to be able to, you know, well, this didn't have as much yield as we hoped it would. Or the flavor on this was not sweet enough or there's too much acid in this. Right. And so then the seed company will go back and do some more crossbreeding and try a new variety that they'll put out there. Right And then when they find the ones that they love they going to go in and get a contract and get the seed in and start growing So it a multi process It actually pretty fascinating If you go to Sunset Paul and that team there if you go to their R&D facility where they're growing hundreds of different varieties at a time, it's really fascinating to go through and see some of the cool stuff that they're doing. Tomatoes that are completely black to all the different striping, like on the Firebird that Aaron has here. Some tomatoes are beautiful, like bumblebees are delicious. Social media and Instagram specifically must have played a significant role in the last 10, 15 years of the tomato market. Right. Like I think in food in general. Right. Like food trends pop from social media now. Yeah. Whether it was that pink sauce stuff years ago to yes, snacking tomatoes. Right. Like influencers. What was the pink sauce? It was like a recipe that went viral. It was basically a tomato sauce with lots of cream in it or something. I can't remember what made it pink. I did try it. It was during like COVID times, I think. Yeah. I remember that one. But yeah, we're constantly looking at what food trends are on social media as well, like for us to be relevant for our chefs to make sure that we can meet them with what a consumer might be looking for when they come into their restaurant for either a special or something always on the menu. So you brought us some strawberries as well, which is actually something that I am also planning on planning. [55:00] in my new raised beds. I used to have some in my old ones and there is nothing like a fresh, like farm grown strawberry versus what you buy at a mediocre supermarket. Why do they taste so much better than like what I would get at no shade to Walmart, but at Walmart and pretty much any other retailers? Yeah. Yeah. I think it comes down to seed genetics, right? So strawberries are extremely challenging to grow and they're extremely perishable, right? The skin is super soft. You have to hand place them in every till that you produce. And also they taste so good that literally every other creature on earth wants to eat them, whether it's like birds or slugs or deer or rabbits or whatever. Or maybe your dog as well. Or my dog. Yeah. But I think in the 60s and 70s and continue through to today, the domestic supply chain of strawberries, a lot of the seed varieties were coming from partnerships with universities. So like UC Davis, University of Florida for Florida grown berries, where customers love berries. So everybody wants berries all the time, year round. They didn't want it to be a seasonal thing anymore. To do that, you had to grow varieties that were a little bit more firmer It could take the ride on a truck from California to New York for five days and survive right And so yeah a lot of the varieties that you see in your you know, traditional shipper label products are these varieties that are in partnership with the universities where a lot of it was functional, not flavorful. We've gone this whole conversation without bringing up the phrase cold chain. And you mentioned Hunt's Point, and I'm just curious, we did an episode on this a few years ago. Is the New York City market distinctly operationally difficult to get from, you know, farm to store in a way that's different from other markets due to the sort of the geographic reality of New York City? Yeah, I'd say it's definitely a lot more expensive. Nobody wants to take a truck across the George Washington Bridge to the Bronx, right? So I've worked at, you know, major retailers that are national. I've worked at a meal delivery company where we had to ship product through the mail and FedEx or UPS for one or two days. And now I've worked in one of the most competitive food service markets in the world with with New York City and in Boston, D Philly where we service as well It challenging everywhere Joe Like it it it a game of perfection Yeah And a lot of it is having to keep you know this berry ideally would be at a perfect 33 to 34 degrees from the minute it put on a truck to the minute that it's served on a customer's plate. Like that's really the ideal temperature to keep this berry absolutely perfect, especially something like a sweetest batch that I have here that is a more flavorful variety that's going to go bad faster than maybe something more traditional, Right. This tomato, ideally, you're sitting between 48 to 52 degrees for like perfection. I've got to ride both of these on the same truck to a customer. How do I get that done? Right. So like this is a constant challenge that we have as an industry is making sure you maintain that that cold supply chain that I need, you know, 32 to 34 for this. I need, you know, 32 to 34 for my protein and my dairy, but I need 48 to 50 for a tomato or an onion. Right. All right, Jacob, that was amazing. Yeah, that was amazing. We had a lot of fun talking about tomatoes and also the food distribution business. Thank you so much for coming on Outlaw. Yeah, thank you guys. And thank you for the tomatoes. And the strawberries. Enjoy. Enjoy. Yeah. So that was fascinating That was great And we have all this fresh produce that we now get to eat um a couple things stood out for me so one the idea of um i guess the informationally advantaged you know chef yeah or restaurant buyer versus the informationally disadvantaged retail customer yeah and the idea that like supermarkets can push through additional price increases if this goes back to the conversation we had with that baker in Chicago a while ago. If all the retail consumer is seeing in the headlines is like tomato prices are high, tomato prices are high, customers are going to accept higher tomato prices. Yeah, this idea that the end retailer can actually push price and then not take it down, it's not just a myth, right? It's not just sort of like that is like a real phenomenon observed in the industry. And of course, in theory, some tomato customers could do the homework and like find out but like no no one's gonna have time to do that and actually like price comparison shop like yes of course the information is all theoretically out there but the restaurant does that professionally i don't have time to do that so of course they're gonna have like an edge over me in terms of like yeah like i just i have other things just outsources [60:00] going to eat at the restaurant exclusively. Just don't go to the grocery store. That's right. You'll save on input costs, not on labor costs, though. No, but that was a great conversation. I'm just fascinated by, like, also the sheer explosion of varieties and just the fact that, again, like the idea of like a mass consumer base of snacking tomato eaters, that's like a fairly novel thing. Like a lot of like my kids, like really like snacking on tomatoes i don't think like when i was a kid i'm sure that market of like children let alone adults who like thought about like these are the good tomato and it's like i never heard it was just when i was a kid there was add tomato and it was just a red thing that was like the size of your fist and that is obviously like a change in the fundamental tomato market that is relatively novel i never thought about it but i don't remember eating tiny tomatoes when i was a kid either so yeah it must be new but you know also like your question about instagram and that impact on food like i think that is definitely a part of it and the color yeah the idea of a black tomato that would be cool to take a picture of one of my favorite tomato varieties is called ethiopian black but they not even actually black so i don know very i think they actually from ukraine um the ethiopian black tomato from ukraine they're kind of like striped they're darker and striped but you can get like indigo tomatoes that are actually yeah okay we should stop here because we're just going to start talking about tomato varieties those are nice looking tomatoes yeah they're really good You'll get some. Yeah. Hopefully, if my tomatoes survive the next week of colder weather. Anyway, shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmond, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more Odd Thoughts content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Thoughts. 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