Aiden Johnson Uses AI Agents to Aggregate Opaque Hay Prices

Aiden Johnson利用AI智能体汇总不透明的干草价格 HayWire利用USDA直连API数据源与本地拍卖数据揭露大宗商品经纪商的随意加价行为，与此同时，区域性干旱已将干草价格推高至每吨180美元。 Aiden Johnson探讨了创办HayWire的背景与过程。HayWire是一份由AI驱动的行业简讯兼数据管道，通过整合零散的USDA拍卖报告及实地市场数据，旨在为干草行业建立价格基准。对话探讨了区域性干旱、高昂运费以及数据中心和太阳能农场的用地竞争如何推高干草价格，并在全美形成孤立的微观市场。Johnson还强调了干草价格暴涨对乳业经营者和马主带来的二阶效应，以及他打造“干草界彭博社”（Bloomberg for Hay）以优化农业价格发现机制的长远目标。 受高昂运费、区域气候差异以及缺乏全国集中定价基准的影响，干草市场严重分化为割裂的本地微观市场。 (15:23) 每英里5.00至8.00美元的高昂运输成本导致干草长途运输在经济上难以承受，使得东海岸等区域市场处于孤立状态。 (20:00) HayWire利用AI模型和USDA API数据源汇总不透明且深藏的政府拍卖数据，并将其提炼为易于查阅的区域价格报告。 (5:46) 美国西部各州的严重干旱正在导致干草减产并耗尽结转库存，迫使买家前往更偏东的地区寻购饲料。 (20:00) “密苏里模式”体现了区域性供应短缺如何在相邻各州之间引发接踵而至的需求浪潮与价格飙升。 (25:28)

HayWire, an agricultural newsletter and data startup founded by college students Aiden Johnson and Cole Glasgow, leverages AI data pipelines to establish price transparency across the heavily fragmented and opaque U.S. hay market. Market Scale and Regional Price Fragmentation (15:23) U.S. forage production covers approximately 49 to 50 million acres, and alfalfa ranks as the nation's fourth most valuable crop behind corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite its scale, the commodity lacks a centralized exchange or national benchmark like the S&P 500. Instead, it operates across hyper-local micro-markets where prices diverge significantly based on regional harvest conditions, moisture levels, and quality metrics like Relative Feed Value (RFV). According to USDA NASS data cited by Johnson, average hay prices rose from $167 per ton in March to $180 per ton in April 2026, while premium alfalfa reached $185 per ton. Logistical Friction and Asymmetric Market Shocks (20:00) Because hay has a low value-to-weight ratio, long-distance transport is economically prohibitive, with freight rates ranging between $5.00 and $8.00 per mile. This dynamic isolates regional supplies during localized weather shocks. For instance, roughly 46% of U.S. alfalfa acreage has faced severe drought concentrated in the Western states, causing short supplies and light first-cut yields with minimal carryover stock from 2025. Because shipping costs prevent affordable cross-country transport, East Coast markets—dominated by small square-bale hobby farming—remain largely unaffected by Western shortages. However, extreme regional deficits can prompt inter-state demand shifts, such as the observed 'Missouri Pattern,' where price spikes in Missouri were followed a week later by increases at regional hubs like the Rock Valley auction in Iowa as buyers reached further east for supply. AI Infrastructure and Primary Price Discovery (5:46) HayWire processes unstructured agricultural figures by connecting direct API feeds to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports, using automated pipelines and AI agents to ingest data buried inside regional PDFs. To bridge the gap with real-time trading and eliminate potential AI hallucinations, the team cross-references government data with primary auction houses, most notably Iowa's Rock Valley Hay Auction. The publication pairs automated scraping with ground-level reporting from farmers, horse owners, and dealers to map out transaction trends that terminal data feeds do not readily synthesize for smaller agricultural producers. Downstream Consumer Pressures and Land Competition (27:32) Spiking forage costs generate significant second-order effects across livestock and agricultural sectors. Dairy operators, whose high-producing cows require premium alfalfa testing at 150 RFV or higher, have adapted by blending high-grade forage with cheaper fiber to sustain daily 80-pound milk production targets. In the equine sector, elevated feed and fuel costs have inflated horse boarding fees, threatening private owners and non-profit sanctuaries. Simultaneously, hay production faces land and resource competition from staple cash crops like corn and soybeans, utility-scale solar lease developments, long-term 25-to-35-year USDA conservation programs, and industrial tech infrastructure, such as a 482-acre Google data center project in North Dakota that competes for prime real estate and water supplies. The Information Arbitrage Business Model (40:00) Founders Johnson and Glasgow initially leveraged generative AI prompts and vibe-coding before expanding into automated ingestion infrastructure, aiming to build what Johnson internally termed a 'Bloomberg for Hay.' By offering a free tier alongside a Pro subscription priced at $14 per month (scheduled to rise to $17 after June 30), HayWire aims to provide baseline regional reference prices and eventually offer B2B data APIs. While traditional commodity brokers profit from the opacity of arbitrary, unindexed phone transactions, widespread price discovery threatens to compress intermediary trading margins and clarify real-time regional valuations. While hosts and observers suggest that standard benchmark prices could eventually support financialized hay futures or hedging mechanisms to manage environmental volatility, the biological and climate-driven variability of regional yields presents severe hurdles to establishing standardized exchange-traded contracts.

彭博播客《Odd Lots》探讨了干草市场的严重割裂与不透明性，介绍了创业团队HayWire如何结合美国农业部（USDA）数据接口与生成式AI管道，尝试打破由高昂运费和传统中间商主导的区域定价壁垒。 运费壁垒与区域性极端割裂 (20:00) 美国干草与饲料种植面积达4900万至5000万英亩，苜蓿总产值在全美农作物中位列第四，仅次于玉米、大豆和小麦。然而，由于干草具有重量大、单价低的物理特性，长途调运面临极高成本。卡车长途运输干草的运费通常在每英里5.00至8.00美元之间，运费往往迅速超过饲料本身的货物价值，导致全美干草市场无法形成类似标普500指数那样统一的基准价格。受此影响，干草市场严重分化为互不连通的微型区域市场。 当前全美约46%的苜蓿种植面积遭遇严重干旱，旱情集中在西部各州，导致首茬收割产量极低且几乎没有2025年遗留的结转库存。然而，这些西部需求无法由东海岸的供应顺畅填补，东海岸以小方捆和观赏农场为主，在地理与物流上几乎独立运转。高企的干旱采购成本甚至迫使部分买家跨州搜寻货源，形成所谓“密苏里模式”：密苏里州拍卖行的数据价格暴涨，一周后便传导至爱荷华州洛克谷（Rock Valley）等主要中西部集散地，显示买家正逐步向东寻找可用饲料。 质量分级与终端产业链压力 (27:32) 干草交易的估值核心依赖相对饲用价值（RFV）这一营养指标。RFV基准指数设定为100，测试结果达到150以上的被归类为特级或顶级苜蓿，其蛋白质主要集中在叶片，而茎秆则提供粗纤维。收割期的天气状况极为脆弱，割倒晾晒的干草一旦遭遇降雨，可溶性碳水化合物和蛋白质就会被淋洗流失，叶片脱落导致等级直接降至廉价的通用饲草。 饲料价格的飙升对下游产生了连锁反应。根据USDA国家农业统计局（NASS）的数据，2026年4月全美平均干草价格从3月的每吨167美元升至180美元，优质苜蓿更从每吨175美元上涨至185美元。在乳制品行业，日产奶量达80磅的高产奶牛严重依赖高RFV苜蓿，面对高成本，农场管理人员不得不将高价苜蓿与低级纤维掺混投喂以控制预算；而在马匹饲养领域，飙升的干草与运输开支推高了寄宿费用，对私人马主及马匹收容所构成了严重的财务压力。 土地竞争与科技转型的双重挤压 (34:52) 尽管饲草价格高位运行，但扩大种植面积面临激烈的土地利用竞争。除玉米和大豆等传统经济作物的常规争地外，工业与科技基础设施的扩张正在吞噬农田，例如谷歌在北达科他州开发482英亩的数据中心，直接将农用地转为商业用地。在面临干旱的西部地区，苜蓿这种高耗水作物还必须与需要大量电力和冷却水的大型数据中心争夺有限资源。 对于拥有闲置农地的乡村土地所有者而言，变现路径多样但存在权衡：土地所有者可以在传统的农地现金租赁之外，选择锁定25至35年土地使用权的USDA保护性计划，或是将土地转租给公用事业规模的太阳能开发商，后者能带来高额回报但会永久改变地貌。这些非农开发选项在客观上压缩了饲料作物的供给扩张弹性。 AI数据流与打破中间商信息套利 (5:46) 大学创客Aiden Johnson与Cole Glasgow创建的HayWire试图解决该市场的数据孤岛问题。传统干草交易极度依赖中间商的电话报价和局部经验，许多私营经纪人在缺乏基准指数的情况下随意达成交易（例如盲目报出每吨157美元的价格），通过买卖双方的信息差获取利润。尽管彭博终端等专业金融工具存在州级USDA干草指数，但数万美元的接入成本使中小农户望而却步。 HayWire利用直接对接USDA报告的API接口以及AI自动化处理管道，将杂乱的政府PDF文件转化为易读的数据流，并结合爱荷华州洛克谷等大型拍卖行的现场电话调研进行交叉核实，以过滤AI幻觉。这种以低边际成本运行的自动化数据摄取基础设施，使两个人组成的初创团队得以每周发布区域基准价格，提供免费简报及每月14至17美元的Pro版本订阅服务，旨在通过透明度压缩依靠信息不透明牟利的中间商利润空间。 尽管HayWire意图构建干草领域的“彭博社”并最终开放B2B数据库API，但推动传统年长农户跨越数字鸿沟采纳新型工具仍具阻力。此外，虽然市场参与者希望引入干草期货等金融对冲工具来管理价格剧烈波动，但由于干旱、暴雨等不可抗力导致的产量与质量不确定性极高，标准化对冲工具在短期内依然面临难以落地的制度挑战。

## Background 该内容由彭博（Bloomberg）旗下的播客节目《Odd Lots》于 2026 年 6 月 12 日在网络及 RSS 平台发布。节目简介指出，干草市场高度割裂且极不透明，嘉宾 Aiden Johnson 与合伙人通过 AI 模型挖掘美国农业部（USDA）拍卖价格等公开数据创办了通讯《HayWire》，本期节目探讨了他如何通过“氛围编码（Vibecoding）”建立透明度图层、与一线农户打交道，以及干草价格飙升对养马 ROI 和饲料配方等产业生态带来的深远冲击。 ## TL;DR 年仅 20 岁的大学生 Aiden Johnson 敏锐捕捉到作为全美产值第四大作物的干草市场长期缺乏透明基准的痛点，联手合伙人借助氛围编码（Vibecoding）与 AI 工作流，将美国农业部（USDA）晦涩碎片化的 PDF 报告及线下拍卖行数据自动化转化为通俗易懂的《HayWire》周更通讯。节目深入拆解了干草因极度依赖高昂陆运物流而形成的超本地化碎片市场，揭示了西部干旱与“密苏里假说”背后的跨区需求传导，以及高品质紫花苜蓿暴涨引发的奶牛场饲料混搭博弈与养马投资回报率（ROI）坍塌。访谈进一步探讨了科技巨头数据中心与光伏电站蚕食农田的资源争夺战，并勾勒出未来依托统一基准数据打造“干草界彭博社”乃至衍生标准化对冲期货工具的宏大愿景。 ## Atmosphere & style 对谈在彭博资深主持人的幽默风趣与年轻创业者的质朴务实之间展开，既有对大学扣篮、相亲谈资和 Reddit 社区轶事的轻松调侃，又紧密扣合着对宏观农业微观结构的严谨审视。节目生动呈现了前沿生成式 AI 与泥土气息浓厚的传统拍卖行之间的奇妙张力，将枯燥的政府数据挖掘包装成了引人入胜的现代商业侦探故事。整体听感节奏明快、充满好奇心与求知欲，将原本沉闷的小众大宗商品市场剖析得生机盎然且极富启发性。 ## Bulletin - `38:05` 全美牧草种植面积达 4900 万至 5000 万英亩，紫花苜蓿为美国产值第四大农作物，但整体市场极度非标且缺乏统一透明的基准定价层。 - `20:00` 美国西部遭遇严重干旱波及 46% 的紫花苜蓿面积，叠加每英里高达 5 至 8 美元的公路运费，形成了天然的价格壁垒与区域市场割裂。 - `11:33` 在校大学生 Aiden Johnson 借助自然语言编程（Vibecoding）与多重校验系统打造《HayWire》，利用公开农业数据自动化生成研报，立志成为“干草界的彭博社”。 - `26:15` 干草高价带来广泛连带效应，马匹寄养成本攀升导致养马“ROI 暴跌”，大型奶牛场则被迫精细混合高低 RFV 粗饲料以控制日粮配比与成本。 ## Key takeaways - `01:21` 干草市场具有极度非标、流动性分散与品种繁杂的特征，彭博终端等主流金融数据平台长期缺乏综合基准指数。 - `04:15` 政府机构发布的公开 PDF 报告存在大量被忽视的冷门数据，通过自动化整合与持续解读能打造出高价值的利基商业壁垒。 - `05:43` 《HayWire》直连 USDA API 并引入四重校验体系，结合现场拍卖行实地报价弥补官方数据的统计时滞。 - `10:00` 大宗商品底层数据与现代 UI/UX 及 AI 飞轮结合，能够在极低人力成本下激活类似 Flightradar24 的公共数据商业化潜能。 - `15:00` 干草体积庞大、运输成本昂贵，每英里 5 至 8 美元的运费往往超过货物本身价值，导致全美演变为相互割裂的超本地化微型市场。 - `22:50` 西部旱情迫使买家向东跨区求购，团队提出的“密苏里假说”验证了需求先外溢至密苏里、再传导至爱荷华等腹地拍卖行的传导链条。 - `30:00` 相对饲料价值（RFV）决定了终端口粮的分层：高产奶牛与马主争夺高 RFV 顶级苜蓿，肉牛养殖则以低 RFV 普通草摊薄育肥成本。 - `35:00` 科技巨头在农业产区扩建占地数百英亩的数据中心，未来将与耗水量极高的苜蓿种植业争夺稀缺的灌溉水权。 - `35:00` 农田所有者正面临传统现金出租、加入 USDA 休耕保护计划、改建高收益光伏电站与自主耕种之间的资产配置权衡。 - `40:00` 极端多变的天气虽然阻碍了干草标准化，但也反向催生了建立统一价格基准及开发交易所期货对冲工具的金融需求。 - `42:18` 干草价格全面透明化将打破传统的盲目撮合与口头试探，首当其冲受冲击的是依赖信息差赚取高额差价的中间商渠道。 - `44:48` 生成式 AI 与自动化工作流彻底改写了垂直媒体的经济模型，使两人规模的极简团队能够以极低边际成本运营全套企业级情报平台。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `01:21` 从 Reddit 社区发酵的干草价格之谜与播客缘起 彭博播客《Odd Lots》的主持人 Tracy Alloway 聊起了自己最近在 Reddit 的宅基地自耕农板块（r/homestead）潜水的经历。她发现社区里频繁出现讨论干草价格飞涨的帖子，其中有一位格外活跃的用户一直在持续分享详尽的干草行情。甚至有跟帖网友直接留言喊话：“你应该去上《Odd Lots》节目！”这促成了本期节目的诞生。另一位主持人 Joe Weisenthal 则幽默地坦白自己录制前“毫无准备”——他只知道干草是晒干打包的饲料，依稀记得以前采访过新墨西哥州或亚利桑那州的苜蓿（Alfalfa）种植农户，只懂得“在沙漠种干草的好处是晾晒阶段不用担心被雨淋湿”这一条冷知识。 - **干草市场的非透明性**：当今金融市场中极少有像干草这样极度不透明的领域。它不仅流动性分散，而且品种极其繁多细分，包括提摩西草（Timothy）、苜蓿草（Alfalfa）以及特级干草（Supreme hay）等不同品级。 - **终端数据匮乏**：在彭博终端（Bloomberg Terminal）上，甚至很难找到一个清晰实时的综合干草指数，仅能查到有限的苜蓿干草生产者价格指数（PPI），反映出这个大宗商品市场的结构极其割裂。 --- ### `04:15` 挖掘被遗忘的公开数据：“苜蓿 Alpha”与商业模式 Joe Weisenthal 指出，今天嘉宾所做的事情恰恰印证了他多年来给年轻记者的职业建议。世界各地的政府公共机构每个月都会发布成千上万份没人细读的免费 PDF 报告，如果有人能够找到这类被市场忽视的公开数据，将其持续聚合、梳理并成为该领域的中心数据源，配以定期的通讯解读，就能迅速成为该细分领域的绝对权威。Joe 打趣称这是自己贡献的一波“苜蓿超额收益”（Alfalfa Alpha）。本期嘉宾通过这套模式不仅建立了一个极具潜力的商业模型，更串联起市场微观结构、现代科技（AI 与振动编码/Vibecoding）以及垂直媒体的故事。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: HayWire 数据处理流程图 accDescr: 展示从公开报告和拍卖现场到最终生成通俗周报的完整管道 subgraph Input["数据源输入端"] A["美国农业部 (USDA) API 数据"] B["政府多周期 PDF 拍卖报告"] C["爱荷华州 Rock Valley 等线下拍卖行合作数据"] end subgraph Processing["系统与模型处理"] D["HayWire 自动化数据抓取"] E["四重系统交叉校验流程"] F["AI 语言模型分析与提炼"] end subgraph Output["交付物与用户价值"] G["通俗易懂的《HayWire》周更通讯"] H["填补官方延迟与现场实况的灰色地带"] end A --> D B --> D C --> D D --> E E --> F F --> G F --> H ``` --- ### `05:43` 《HayWire》通讯如何利用 AI 与 API 挖掘干草行情 节目随后迎来了干草市场通讯《HayWire》的联合创始人兼首席执行官 Aiden Johnson。Aiden 解释称，《HayWire》的核心运作逻辑就是将公开却散乱的官方数据提炼成普通订阅者能轻松看懂的大白话（plain English）。美国农业部（USDA）会按周、双周甚至按月发布各地区的行情报告，但这些珍贵数据通常深埋在格式各异的 PDF 文件当中，公众极难检索利用。为此，团队搭建了一整套技术系统和 AI 处理管道来承担繁重的数据挖掘与分析工作，并在迭代中不断修正缺陷以确保行情数据的准确性。 - **直连政府数据管道**：团队与美国农业部建立了直接的 API 集成，获取每周更新的原始数据流。 - **四重校验体系**：从 USDA 抓取的底层数据会被输入到一个专有的“四重系统验证流程”中，确保清洗后输出的数据没有幻觉或偏差。 --- ### `06:48` 线下拍卖行与重拾“废金属市场”式的传统信息撮合 单靠 USDA 的历史报告并不足以反映真实的实时市场。USDA 汇集的是全美各地拍卖行上报的场内成交价，存在一定的报告时滞与信息盲区。为了解决这一痛点，Aiden 的团队与全美规模最大的干草拍卖行之一——爱荷华州罗克瓦利（Rock Valley, Iowa）的干草拍卖行（Rock Valley Hay Auction）达成了主要数据合作。通过获取来自一线的实地情报，《HayWire》成功弥合了“官方统计数据”与“活生生的现货市场”之间的灰色地带，目前正积极向全美其他主要产区和拍卖行拓展网络。 这种获取深层价格的方式引发了主持人的强烈共鸣。Tracy 和 Joe 联想到大宗商品中经典的废金属（scrap metal）市场——交易员和行业记者为了搞清楚今日废铁价格，必须一家家打电话给各个垃圾堆放场与废料回收站询问报价；甚至像全球最重要的基准利率 LIBOR，本质上也是通过向各家大银行挨个致电或发邮件来完成信息三角校准（triangulation）。在 Aiden 看来，正是这种“拿起电话打给拍卖行”与现代 AI 技术相结合的脏活累活，构成了他们在干草这一非透明大宗品类中不可替代的护城河。 ### `10:00` 数据飞轮与公共数据的商业化想象 Aiden Johnson 解释了 *HayWire* 的底层数据架构与校验机制。美国农业部（USDA）发布的公开报告中包含区域、草捆类型（bale type）、重量以及干草或苜蓿（alfalfa）的品质评级等详尽指标。这些数据会被自动抽取并同步到他们的数据库中。为了确保市场洞察的准确性，团队将从一线农户和经纪人那里收集到的实地情报（on-ground intel）输入到自己的“数据飞轮”（data wheel）中，与 USDA 预设的数据表格进行交叉比对。这种机制既利用了官方宏观数据，又能有效过滤掉一线信息中的虚假偏差或模型幻觉（hallucinations）。 节目主持人随之引申探讨了这类商业模式的巨大潜力：市场上其实存在大量像 Flightradar24 那样成功的范例——核心资产本身是公开甚至免费的底层数据，但因为原始数据极为碎片、晦涩，普通人根本无法直接使用。一旦有人为其套上现代化的优秀前端交互界面（UI/UX），将枯燥的数据转化为直观的动态地图或价格曲线，就能迅速构建出高变现价值的业务。在如今“Vibe Coding”（氛围编码/自然语言编程）的浪潮下，构建这类数据产品的门槛正在大幅降低。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: HayWire 数据处理与校验流程 accDescr: 展示公开数据与地面情报如何通过数据飞轮交叉验证输出可靠市场洞察 subgraph DataSources ["数据输入层"] A["USDA 公开拍卖报告<br/>（区域、捆型、重量、品质）"] B["一线实地情报<br/>（农户/经纪人反馈）"] end subgraph CoreEngine ["核心处理系统"] C[("结构化数据库")] D["数据飞轮 Data Wheel<br/>（智能交叉验证与防幻觉）"] end subgraph Output ["产出层"] E["HayWire 每周市场简报 / 洞察"] end A --> C C --> D B --> D D --> E ``` ### `11:33` 从大学篮球队员到“干草情报大亨”的创业契机 当被问及为何会选择如此冷门垂直的赛道时，年仅 20 岁、大学篮球队员出身的 Aiden 坦承这完全是个意外。在 2025 年，他的父亲计划创办一家生产苜蓿草块（alfalfa cubes）的初创企业，在核算原料成本时发现根本查不到透明的干草价格，于是随口建议儿子：“你应该把这个做成一个产品，这是个绝佳的点子。”当时 19 岁的 Aiden 对干草一无所知，甚至跟父亲打趣说：“干草这玩意儿绝对帮我找不到女朋友。” 然而进入大学后，Aiden 开始接触人工智能技术，起初只是尝试通过 Vibe Coding 为本地小商家编写简单网站。随后他与技术能力极强的合伙人 Cole 联手，决定深入探索更深层的智能体架构（agentic AI）与自动化工作流。两人每天泡在电话会议里不断迭代产品与技术，最初一个连基础设施都没有的随手小实验，逐渐演变成了一个直击市场痛点的创业项目。正如商学院第一堂课所传授的：“发现一个真实问题，然后提供解决方案。” - **恋爱状态的幽默互动**：当主持人追问创业是否帮他找到了女朋友时，Aiden 笑着坦承“绝对没有”，并打趣说自己在外面介绍职业时，总会极力用高级词汇掩饰，说自己经营的是一家“市场情报与 AI 基础设施公司”，而不是“卖干草资讯的”。 - **技术代际差异**：Aiden 感慨道，如果倒退 10 年到 2016 年左右，凭他们两个 20 岁的毛头小子根本不可能触及这种系统深度。彼时要处理海量异构数据并自动化生成研报，需要雇佣庞大的专业工程师团队；而如今 AI 基础设施的进化，让两人团队就能凭兴趣撬动整套企业级平台。 ### `15:00` 极度碎片化的区域市场与缺乏统一基准的定价困境 谈到具体的干草价格与基准指数时，主持人好奇干草行业是否存在类似于标普 500（S&P 500）或道琼斯指数那样的权威锚定物。Aiden 指出，USDA 下属的国家农业统计局（NASS）确实会公布全国月度平均参考价：例如当时 4 月份的常规干草（other hay）均价为每吨 180 美元（较 3 月的 167 美元有所上涨），而苜蓿干草（alfalfa）均价约为每吨 185 美元（较 3 月的 175 美元上涨）。 但 Aiden 在与中西部 Rock Valley 的拍卖行从业者 Levi Russ 深入沟通后发现，现实中几乎没有一线从业者会把 USDA 枯燥晦涩的 PDF 报告作为交易基准——“除非你拥有经济学学位，并且有大把闲工夫去爬梳那些文件”。在实际交易中，各地农户往往直接盯住本地大型拍卖会（如 Rock Valley 拍卖所）的落槌价作为风向标。这揭示了干草市场最根本的物理特性： - **极度区域化与高昂物流成本**：干草体积庞大且沉重，跨区域陆路运输成本极为高昂，根本无法像粮食那样在全美范围内低成本自由调拨。 - **品质与环境因子的剧烈波动**：日照、降水、收割时机等都会改变每捆草的营养指标与含水量，导致明尼苏达州的干草与加利福尼亚州的干草在成色和定价逻辑上完全无法相提并论。全美并不存在一个统一的“干草市场”，而是由成百上千个高度碎片化、超本地化（hyper-local）的微型市场拼凑而成。 ### `20:00` 干旱、高昂运费与割裂的区域市场 在节目的轻松开场中，主持人 Joe Weisenthal 打趣提到嘉宾 Aiden Johnson 拥有 6 英尺 6 英寸（约 1.98 米）的身高，在社交媒体上还能扣篮，引来一阵玩笑。随后话题切入干草市场的宏观动态：干草与石油、木材等常见大宗商品一样，存在着巨大的区域价差，但不同区域之间的价格相关性却极为特殊。Aiden 分析指出，当前美国西部正经历严重干旱，全美高达 46% 的紫花苜蓿（alfalfa）种植面积都处于干旱之中。按常理，西部的强劲需求理应拉动邻近甚至更远区域的价格，但东海岸市场却仿佛生活在自己的“独立生态系统”中。 东海岸以众多业余农场（hobby farms）和小型方捆干草（small square bales）为主，它们对西部的干旱几乎毫无感觉。造成这种市场割裂的决定性因素是高昂的物流成本。干草属于低货值、大体积的重货，卡车经纪商或经销商的运输报价通常在每英里 5 至 8 美元。一旦运距过长，运费就会迅速反超干草本身的实际货值。因此，不同区域市场往往被高额的运费天然隔绝开来。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Hay Market Regional Dynamics accDescr: Diagram showing how severe drought in the West creates high local demand, but high freight costs isolate East Coast hobby farms while triggering eastward demand toward the Midwest. subgraph West["西部干旱受灾区"] Drought["46% 紫花苜蓿面积受旱"] --> SupplyShortage["供应严重短缺 / 价格飙升"] end subgraph Logistics["物流瓶颈与运费壁垒"] Freight["公路运费 $5 - $8 / 英里"] end subgraph East["东海岸生态"] HobbyFarms["业余农场 / 小型方捆市场<br/>(不受西部干旱波及)"] end subgraph Midwest["中西部拍卖市场"] Missouri["密苏里等过渡州拍卖需求外溢"] end SupplyShortage -.->|运费远超干草价值 / 无法长途调配| HobbyFarms SupplyShortage ==>|就近向东搜寻货源| Missouri Freight -.->|形成区域价格壁垒| Logistics ``` - **全美干旱影响**：46% 的紫花苜蓿种植面积正处于干旱威胁之下。 - **物流运费壁垒**：干草陆运价格达到每英里 5 至 8 美元，极易超过干草货值本身。 - **2025 年结转库存告罄**：牧场主积极为夏季备货，但田间第一茬收割（first cut）产量极低，来自 2025 年的结转库存（carryover）已基本耗尽。 --- ### `22:50` 终端机与“密苏里假说”：获取农民信任与追踪跨区流动 针对 Tracy Alloway 提到 USDA 报告反映农场主正在全美范围内囤货，Joe 打趣称如果大家舍得花上几万美元买一套彭博终端（Bloomberg Terminal），其实也能查到各州的 USDA 干草价格指数，因此终端堪称是《HayWire》的超级竞品。然而在现实中，传统干草种植者既不会买终端，也往往排斥新兴技术。Aiden 介绍了他如何通过 Reddit 上的家园种植板块（r/homestead）与线下人脉去触达农场主：老一辈农民对本地行情了如指掌，习惯于凭经验交易，《HayWire》以“零成本、互换透明度”的方式与他们建立信任，帮助他们看清市场，避免在买卖中盲目摸黑。 当极端干旱导致局部价格飞涨时，农场主会被迫突破原本的经济运距，向更远的区域拍卖行扫货。Aiden 团队在跟踪数据时提出了著名的“密苏里假说（Missouri pattern）”：他们发现西部干旱加剧后，紧邻西部的中西部州——密苏里州的拍卖需求与价格率先抬头；紧接着下一周，爱荷华州罗克瓦利（Rock Valley，Aiden 的核心跟踪拍卖行）的价格也随即出现脉冲式上涨。Aiden 将这种把月度公开拍卖数据与周度高频数据结合的过程比作“拼乐高积木”，通过一片片拼图逐步证实了西部买家向东跨区求购的连锁反应。 - **农民冷启动策略**：不直接推销软件，而是以免费信息共享切入，换取最真实的本地报价与交易情绪。 - **密苏里假说验证**：西部受灾买家外溢寻找货源，需求先波及密苏里拍卖行，随后在数周内向罗克瓦利等中西部腹地拍卖市场传导。 --- ### `26:15` 高价风暴的外溢：养马的“ROI 暴跌”与奶牛场的配方博弈 干草价格居高不下引发了强烈的第二阶连锁效应（second-order effects）。主持人提到，彭博播客同行 Katie Greifeld 就因干草价格上涨而遭遇马匹寄宿寄养费（boarding costs）上调；德克萨斯州甚至有马匹庇护所因为干草与燃油双重涨价而濒临破产关闭。Aiden 透露自己家中也养马，对此感同身受：全美各地的爱马人士虽然极度深爱自己的马，但面对天文数字般的维护账单，养马的“投资回报率（ROI）”正在不可逆地坍塌，大家都在纠结到底还能支撑多久。 在商业化程度极高的奶牛业，高价干草更是直接改变了饲料配方逻辑。日产奶量达 80 磅的高产奶牛必须食用高相对饲用价值（RFV, Relative Feed Value）的顶级紫花苜蓿。由于优质苜蓿价格奇高，奶农们不得不使出“混搭”策略：买入少量极高品质的苜蓿，将其与低营养等级的低 RFV 粗饲料掺拌在一起，借此精确控制日粮营养配比并强行摊薄成本。更有甚者，一些农场主眼见市场供给极度紧缩、看涨后市，甚至将已经拉到拍卖行的干草重新撤回自留，导致市场流通量进一步萎缩。 - **马产业抗风险脆弱**：干草高企引发寄养服务提价，无商业产出的宠物马及避难场所面临严重的财务挤压。 - **高产奶牛日粮配比**：针对日产奶 80 磅的奶牛，奶牛场通过高低 RFV 干草精细混合来控制成本与体积。 - **市场囤积情绪蔓延**：预期未来供给更紧的农户选择撤回拍卖品，加剧现货供给短缺。 ### `30:00` 牧草质量评级与“相对饲料价值”：从奶牛、马匹到肉牛的需求分化 在牧草交易中，衡量质量的核心指标是“相对饲料价值”（Relative Feed Value，简称 RFV），该指数主要综合测定牧草中的粗蛋白含量与纤维水平。RFV 以 100 为基准线，通常数值达到 150 及以上即可被视作高品质的顶级牧草（Supreme / Premium）。不同养殖主体对 RFV 的敏感度截然不同：大型奶牛场对高营养摄入有着极其严苛的指标，为了让奶牛产出最优品质和产量的牛奶，牧场主必须采购高 RFV 的顶级苜蓿草；马主群体同样是非优质草不买，出于对爱马的情感投入与健康考量，马匹喂养基本只选用高标准精选草。相比之下，肉牛养殖对饲料的要求则宽松得多，通常只需消化级别较低的“公用级”（Utility）或“中等普通级”（Fair）牧草，这为肉牛养殖户提供了一种高性价比的催肥方案，而不必为高昂的顶级苜蓿支付溢价。 当被问及“低品质牧草究竟是由什么构成的”时，Aiden 坦言自己并非农场长大的孩子，但从行业数据和生长规律来看，牧草品质的高低主要取决于收割时的干燥程度以及叶片中的蛋白质保留量。收割季的天气状况对品质起着决定性作用——农户必须等到连续干燥的晴朗窗口期才能割草。如果在晾晒或收割过程中遭遇降雨，雨水会直接淋洗并严重破坏牧草中的蛋白质和营养成分。高品质牧草的关键在于叶片完好且占比高，因为蛋白质几乎全部富集在草叶中，而粗纤维则主要来自于草茎；如果收割不当导致草叶脱落、只剩下干硬的茎秆，牧草的营养价值和 RFV 就会大幅缩水。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Hay Quality and Usage Flow accDescr: Diagram illustrating how Relative Feed Value splits hay into distinct quality tiers and end markets. subgraph Evaluation ["指标测定"] RFV["相对饲料价值 RFV<br/>(基准值 100)"] Factors["影响因素：叶片占比与降雨晾晒<br/>(叶片富含蛋白质，茎秆提供纤维)"] RFV --- Factors end subgraph HighTier ["高 RFV 等级 (150+)"] SupremeAlfalfa["顶级/特级苜蓿草"] Dairy["大型奶牛场<br/>(追求高产奶量)"] Equine["马匹所有者<br/>(重金养护爱马)"] SupremeAlfalfa --> Dairy SupremeAlfalfa --> Equine end subgraph LowTier ["低 RFV 等级 (低于 100-120)"] UtilityHay["公用级 / 普通级牧草<br/>(茎多叶少、遭雨水淋洗)"] Beef["肉牛养殖户<br/>(低成本增重催肥)"] UtilityHay --> Beef end RFV -->|"RFV ≥ 150"| HighTier RFV -->|"较低 RFV"| LowTier ``` - **相对饲料价值（RFV）基准**：以 100 为标准参照值，150 以上通常属于高品质优质草。 - **终端口粮分层**：奶牛场与马主争夺高 RFV 顶级苜蓿；肉牛养殖业消耗低 RFV 的普通级与公用级杂草以控制饲养成本。 - **生化结构分布**：牧草的蛋白质集中在叶片，纤维集中在茎秆；收割期的非预期降水是导致叶片受损、蛋白质流失并降级为劣质草的最大杀手。 --- ### `35:00` 土地与水资源争夺战：数据中心、太阳能农场与农田的博弈 针对高草价是否会刺激农户将更多土地改种牧草的疑问，主持人打趣称自己在老家有两块荒废并长满入侵杂草的闲置田地，正盘算着是否可以出租给人种草赚取收益。然而 Aiden 指出，现实中他并未看到耕地大规模流向牧草种植，反而观察到了更深层的逆向趋势：非农资本正加速蚕食有限的农业用地。几天前他开车经过自家以南仅 20 分钟车程的公路上，赫然发现 Google 正计划在当地建设一座占地 482 英亩的大型数据中心。牧草和苜蓿本身的种植面积本就受到玉米、大豆等高补贴、高稳定性传统大宗农作物的长期挤压，而科技巨头的大型数据中心更是直接将大片良田划出农业生产圈。 这种土地与资源的争夺在干旱地区尤为尖锐。虽然 Google 在当地拟建的数据中心采用风冷技术，但如果此类算力设施深入美国西部干旱各州，情况将变得极其严峻。苜蓿本身属于极度耗水的高耗能作物，未来农业种植必将与科技巨头的数据中心直接争夺本就濒临枯竭的灌溉水权。随后讨论转向了农地所有者的现实出路：面对诸如 75 英亩或其父亲刚刚购入的 164 英亩闲置农田，现代地主通常面临四种现实抉择： 1. **现金直租（Cash Rent）**：直接按英亩单价出租给周围的种植大户； 2. **联邦保护项目（USDA CRP）**：拿美国农业部的生态休耕补贴，但代价是签署长达 25 至 35 年的土地锁定协议，期间丧失对土地的使用控制权； 3. **光伏新能源租赁**：允许太阳能发电公司在农田上大面积铺设电池板，这是当下收益极其丰厚的“摇钱树”（Money Crop），但代价是在升值的优质农田上永久覆盖工业面板； 4. **自主耕种**：亲自投身种植苜蓿或当下利润率最高的经济作物。 主持人随即调侃是否应该把土地“一半装太阳能电池板，另一半用来建数据中心”，刚好实现能源自给与算力闭环。主持人还提到，在美国东北部驾车时，沿途随处可见昔日的牧场已被茫茫无际的光伏板取代，远看在阳光照射下甚至犹如一片波光粼粼的开阔水泊。 - **Google 算力扩容侵占农田**：在 Aiden 居住地以南 20 分钟处规划占地达 482 英亩（约合 2900 余亩）的数据中心。 - **干旱区资源冲突**：高耗水的苜蓿种植业正面临与算力基建抢夺西部水资源的潜在危机。 - **农地收益路径比选**：农户在“逐亩出租收租金”、“USDA 休耕锁定 25-35 年”、“光伏电站高额租金”以及“自种高收益经济作物”之间权衡取舍。 --- ### `38:05` 全美第四大作物的透明度蓝海与大学生的创业野心 尽管牧草市场在公众视野中较为小众，但其总体体量却极其庞大。全美牧草种植面积常年维持在 4900 万至 5000 万英亩之间，仅苜蓿一种作物的年产值就高达数十亿美元，稳居美国产值第四大农作物宝座。然而，就是这样一个数十亿美元规模、占据数千万英亩国土的支柱性大宗农业大盘，在交易定价上却长期处于高度割裂、各自为战的状态，缺乏一个像传统金融市场或大豆玉米期货那样集中、权威的定价透明层。 面对这一巨大商机，令人惊讶的是 Aiden 目前还只是一名全日制在校大学生。他刚刚在詹姆斯敦大学（University of Jamestown）完成大二学业，即将升入大三，一边兼顾大学课业，一边创立运营着 *HayWire*。当被问及对这份事业的长远期许时，Aiden 展现出了清晰的战略蓝图：他希望将 *HayWire* 打造为立于整个牧草产业链顶端的权威数据基准层。位于产业链底层的是农户与种植者，中间是各级草商经纪人（Brokers），而 *HayWire* 则志在构建跨区域的基准定价数据库，为种植户提供透明的市场信号，帮助他们在出售时机和区域价格研判上掌握主动权。比起冷冰冰的软件报表，Aiden 格外看重 Newsletter 带来的连接感，他热衷于亲自回复每一封农户邮件，并从这些一手交流中深入汲取产业前沿的真实脉搏。 - **全美种植总规模**：美国牧草总覆盖面积约 4900 万至 5000 万英亩；苜蓿是全美价值第四高的农作物。 - **创始人背景**：Aiden Johnson 现就读于詹姆斯敦大学，即将迈入大三阶段，在大学期间主导创办了 *HayWire*。 - **核心商业定位**：不做底层草商或经纪中介，而是成为凌驾于生产端与分销端之上的“区域基准数据提供者”，消除数千万英亩产业背后的信息孤岛。 ### `40:00` 打造“干草界的彭博社”与未来金融衍生品的可能性 谈到商业化蓝图，艾登·约翰逊（Aiden Johnson）表示，团队未来的长远目标是进一步拓展 B 端业务，例如向外部网站或行业机构开放 API 数据库，让他们能够直接调用干草价格数据。虽然这并非涉足干草市场的唯一初衷，但核心逻辑依然是为整个行业构建一层更完善的“价格透明度图层”。乔·维森塔尔（Joe Weisenthal）敏锐地指出，彭博社（Bloomberg）早期也是靠寻找数据利基市场起家的，艾登的探索甚至有可能在未来成长为财富 500 强级别的农业数据库平台。此时，艾登笑着道出了一个“秘密”：他在筹划这家初创公司时，内部定下的口号正是“干草界的彭博社”（the Bloomberg for Hay）。乔对此深有感触地回应道，虽然很多创业者动辄宣称要做“某领域的彭博社”，但艾登从底层数据一步步扎实搭建架构的做法，让人觉得这个愿景极为真实，未来甚至可能衍生出专属的行业电视网络。 乔进一步抛出了一个深层的金融构想：随着价格基准（Benchmark）的建立，干草市场未来是否可能衍生出可交易、可对冲的期货合约？艾登坦言自己确实思考过这一点，但现实中极具挑战，最大的制约在于“大自然母亲”（Mother Nature）的不确定性。干草的产出极难标准化和稳定化，干旱、过量降雨、极端高温等天气因素都会剧烈影响收成和品质，导致市场波动难以预测。然而乔认为，正因为天气和产量具有极端的不可预测性与波动性，市场才更有理由需要标准化的金融对冲工具。艾登赞同地表示，如果未来真能走到这一步，他非常渴望成为那个推动干草指数与金融衍生品落地的人。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 干草市场数据整合与金融化演进路径 accDescr: 展示从公开分散数据到标准化指数与金融对冲衍生品的演化流程 subgraph DataLayer ["数据整合层"] A["USDA 拍卖报告与公开数据"] --> B["AI 自动化清洗与标准化"] B --> C["HayWire 统一数据库与 API"] end subgraph ProductLayer ["商业应用层"] C --> D["每周行业 Newsletter"] C --> E["第三方农业平台 API 接入"] end subgraph FinanceLayer ["未来金融衍生层"] C --> F["公认的区域干草价格基准 (Benchmark)"] F --> G["天气与收成波动风险对冲"] G --> H["交易所干草期货与金融衍生品"] end ``` ### `42:18` 不透明度下的利益格局：信息透明如何冲击中间商 商业世界中向来存在“信息不透明是利润之源”的法则，很多行业的经营者正是利用买卖双方的信息差来维系高额毛利。当主持人问及干草供应链中谁会因价格透明化而遭受损失时，艾登结合家族经验给出了非常明确的答案：中间商（Middleman / Broker）。艾登的父亲就在家乡的一家私人大宗商品经纪公司工作，父子俩曾深入探讨过这个问题。艾登的父亲直言，在任何大宗商品贸易中，一旦透明度上升，中间商往往是最先承受冲击的一方。 在现有的干草交易中，很多经纪人几乎是在盲目摸索和凭感觉叫价。艾登分享了自己亲眼目睹的真实一幕：曾经有客户直接给经纪公司老板打电话询问，“比如我现在要 X 吨或 X 捆干草，能不能按每吨 157 美元的价格成交？”对方几乎不假思索地答应道：“行啊，没问题。”这种交易背后没有任何公允的基准参考，完全是一笔糊涂账。信息不透明有时能让经纪人赚取暴利，有时也会反过来侵蚀他们的利润，但无论如何，一个全面透明的公开价格体系，必然会打破中间商传统的信息垄断优势。 - **中间商的脆弱性**：缺乏透明基准时，干草买卖全靠盲目撮合与口头试探；公允数据出现后，纯靠信息不对称赚取高差价的商业模式将难以维系。 - **播客嘉宾致谢**：访谈尾声，主持人对艾登在《Odd Lots》的分享表达感谢，高度评价了他利用新兴技术梳理非标大宗商品市场的创新尝试。 ### `44:48` AI 带来的生产力红利：让小众数据生意成为可能 采访结束后，特蕾西·阿洛威（Tracy Alloway）与乔展开了复盘讨论。特蕾西总结道，无论是谷物、干草还是其他农产品，近年来农业和食品话题的核心主线永远是剧烈的波动性——价格暴涨后虽有回落，但往往难以跌回原点，这种常态化波动凸显了价格透明化和对冲工具的紧迫需求。更重要的是，特蕾西和乔一致认为，HayWire 是一个极具说服力的“AI 赋能垂直利基行业”的范例。在过去，干草这样的小众垂直市场根本支撑不起传统数据公司的运营成本，订阅用户总量有限，单靠人力去各州爬取、录入 USDA 零散报告并制作图表，工作量过于繁重，在经济学上完全不可行，大学生更不可能在课余时间完成。 然而，借助 AI（Vibecoding / 代码自动化生成）和自动化工作流，仅凭两个人就能搞定海量非结构化数据的抓取、清洗、建库以及精美图表的渲染，并对外提供订阅和 API 接入服务。乔戏谑地将过去的工作量形容为“过于沉重”（too laborious），甚至打趣谐音成了干草捆的“捆绑”（bales / labellious）。这种自动化能力彻底激活了原本被弃之不顾的长尾数据资产，成为实打实的生产力释放工具。节目最后，主持人介绍了相关订阅信息与平台动态： - **订阅价格阶梯**：HayWire 提供免费版 Newsletter，同时设有功能更全面的 Pro 专业版，目前订阅费为每月 14 美元；6 月 30 日之后，创始会员价格将上调至每月 17 美元，乔调侃道这价格简直“跟随着干草价格一路飙升”。 - **社交媒体与链接**：特蕾西·阿洛威（@tracyalloway）、乔·维森塔尔（@TheStalwart）、嘉宾艾登·约翰逊（@AidenJohnson_）；Newsletter 官网为 haywireag.com。 - **节目信息与赞助商**：彭博订阅用户可通过 Apple Podcasts 上的 Bloomberg 频道免广告收听《Odd Lots》全集；本期节目片尾赞助商包括定制推广服务商 4imprint、医疗整合科技平台 Optum，以及密歇根州经济发展署（Michigan Economic Development Corporation）。 ## Notable quotes > `01:21` 你应该去上《Odd Lots》节目！ — Reddit 网友 > `01:21` 在沙漠种干草的好处是晾晒阶段不用担心被雨淋湿 — Joe Weisenthal > `11:33` 干草这玩意儿绝对帮我找不到女朋友。 — Aiden Johnson > `11:33` 发现一个真实问题，然后提供解决方案。 — Aiden Johnson > `15:00` 除非你拥有经济学学位，并且有大把闲工夫去爬梳那些文件 — Levi Russ > `40:00` 干草界的彭博社 — Aiden Johnson > `42:18` 比如我现在要 X 吨或 X 捆干草，能不能按每吨 157 美元的价格成交？ — 客户 > `42:18` 行啊，没问题。 — 大宗商品经纪公司老板 ## Mentioned Aiden Johnson, Cole Glasgow, Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Katie Greifeld, Levi Russ, HayWire, Odd Lots, 彭博社 (Bloomberg), 彭博终端 (Bloomberg Terminal), 美国农业部 (USDA), 国家农业统计局 (NASS), 罗克瓦利干草拍卖行 (Rock Valley Hay Auction), Reddit, r/homestead, Flightradar24, Google, 詹姆斯敦大学 (University of Jamestown), 4imprint, Optum, 密歇根州经济发展署 (Michigan Economic Development Corporation) ## Video description <p>The hay market is not a transparent market: It is very fractured by types of hay, whether it is alfalfa or clover hay. There are a few opaque, illiquid markets like this &mdash; scrap metal for instance &mdash; that require some hands-on investigating to figure out. Aiden Johnson is co-founder and CEO of the <em>HayWire</em> newsletter, which aims to make the hay market more transparent: He and co-founder Cole Glasgow use an AI model to mine public data sources &mdash; like USDA reports on auction prices across different regions &mdash; to produce a weekly newsletter on the hay market. On this episode, we speak with Johnson as he explains why he chose hay over other kinds of markets, how <em>HayWire</em> was made possible through vibecoding, networking with hay farmers, why the ROI of owning a horse is dropping with hay prices spiking, and why hay demand keeps on tightening.</p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p> [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/3cfa0968-658f-4cce-a2df-b466015e5042/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

[1:21] Reddit 网友: 你应该去上《Odd Lots》节目！ [1:21] Joe Weisenthal: 在沙漠种干草的好处是晾晒阶段不用担心被雨淋湿 [11:33] Aiden Johnson: 干草这玩意儿绝对帮我找不到女朋友。 [11:33] Aiden Johnson: 发现一个真实问题，然后提供解决方案。 [15:00] Levi Russ: 除非你拥有经济学学位，并且有大把闲工夫去爬梳那些文件 [40:00] Aiden Johnson: 干草界的彭博社 [42:18] 客户: 比如我现在要 X 吨或 X 捆干草，能不能按每吨 157 美元的价格成交？ [42:18] 大宗商品经纪公司老板: 行啊，没问题。

[3:52] Joe Weisenthal: I've always thought that one way you could build a business as a young journalist... is find a piece of public data that exists, that is out there... gather it, become the central repository for it, and then occasionally comment on it. [10:44] Aiden Johnson: I run a market intelligence AI infrastructure company, not just a hay market company. [23:15] Aiden Johnson: These farmers know their regional market like the back of their hand. And especially these old-gen farmers, they're not really going to adapt to technology like that. So it's been kind of difficult trying to get them to adapt to be like, 'Okay, this is technology nowadays. This can actually really help your business.' [37:48] Aiden Johnson: We kind of want to be at the top, being the benchmark data for these prices regionally. So we just want to be that information layer on the top and, you know, just providing this information to these farmers so they can kind of make better decisions based off of timing...

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When you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For midsize and large companies, risk can affect multiple parts of the organization at once, from property and liability to cyber and regulatory challenges. At that level managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline At the Hartford the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive And when losses do happen, that work is paired with insurance coverage shaped by years of underwriting, risk engineering, and claims experience. Learn more at thehartford.com slash risk mitigation. Policies provided by Hartford Fire Insurance Company and its property and casualty affiliates, Hartford, Connecticut. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. Joe, I was lurking on the Homestead subreddit recently, as one does. As Tracy Alloway does. There have been a number of posts recently about hay prices and hay getting more expensive. And the craziest thing is there's one guy, one poster, who keeps talking about hay prices. And on one of his posts someone came in and said they commented you should go on Oddbots I love episodes that come about that way all right can i make a little confession here please i done no prep for this episode i mean i you know i'm often not as diligent as you are but i was just like you know what i know that hay exists i've seen it in bales i figure something is dried i know it's consumed i've done no research You know a little bit about hay, though, because we spoke with that was in New Mexico or Arizona. Now, I can't remember the farmer growing alfalfa. Yeah, it's like fermented, right? Isn't hay like sort of like fermented and dried or something? Yeah, something like that. I mean, I guess. But one of the reasons it's good to grow hay in the desert is because you don't have to worry about it getting wet in the drying process. Yeah. Oh, right. I did. We did learn that. All right. So that's the one hay fact that we all know. So we're going to be talking about hay prices today. I can't wait. But beyond that, I find the hay market really interesting because there are... No, seriously. No, I believe you. I believe you. There aren't that many markets out there nowadays that are non-transparent, I want to say. Do we have any hay indices on the terminal? There's a PPI index. Oh it is Yeah Okay So you can look up alfalfa hay PPI So how that been looking I assume I mean everything is up I just like if you name something that exists in the world it probably up But what is U.S. hay seeds? Yeah. No, I don't know. Is this even up to date? I can't even find one. I don't know. But this is what I mean. Like, it is not a transparent market. It's very fractured by type of hay. So I didn't realize this, but there's like Timothy, there's alfalfa, there's supreme hay. So I'm just going to say, like I said, I haven't done any, I don't know anything about hay. I decided I would just learn it all on the fly. But I also, I did do a little bit of research about our upcoming guest who you identified. The guy posting on Reddit. The guy posting. And I have said this, his business is very cool. And we'll talk about it. But I just want to say the business that he has built in terms of like becoming the man who knows about hay is advice I've given to young journalists who have asked me like for a career. I've literally said this and I'm going to drop some alpha. No, I'm going to drop. That was an I'm going to drop some alfalfa alpha here. And but now it'll be commoditized by the time I say it. I've always thought that one way you could like build a business as a young journalist. [5:00] or someone is find a piece of public data that exists, that is out there, that is consumable for free, that nobody is regularly looking at, gather it, become the central repository for it, and then occasionally comment on it. There's all kinds of data in the world. A million public agencies of all sorts are producing monthly reports on this or that and PDFs that nobody is looking at. And if you say, you know what, I want to learn about X and I want to end a newsletter, update what X is doing each week or month or whatever, you can become the man, the X on this topic. And the guest that you have found for today's episode, I think, has done exactly what I've told numerous young individuals to do. So we'll see if this – I'm curious about Hay, but I'm also curious about this individual's business model. It's a good market structure story and I guess technology story too. And a media story. Yeah, exactly. All right. So without further ado, we do, in fact, have the perfect guest. We're going to be speaking with Aiden Johnson. He is the founder of, can you guess? Well, you know what the company is Haywire It so good It such a good name for what this company actually does So Aiden thank you so much for coming on Oddbods Yeah I appreciate you guys having me on So why don we start with the basics What is it that Haywire is actually doing Yeah, so essentially what we are doing and kind of what we built our business around is pulling public data, just like Joe said, and kind of putting it all on plain English newsletters for our subscribers. So, I mean, USDA publishes reports weekly, biweekly, and then even monthly, depending on region. So we kind of built a system and a technology and our model to kind of do all the hard work for us and then analyze it and put it onto plain English. So it's been a great, great, I don't know, like lesson, I guess, learning, going through the flaws, making sure we're producing the most accurate data, but no, it's been fun. Well, let's go into this a little bit more. And I'm sure that AI makes the process of collecting and absorbing the relevant data easier. But what are these reports out there that you're able to mine? Who's producing them? What is the public data source that you're mining and what can you pull from it? Yeah So we actually have a direct API integration with the USDA So we get live feed strictly from them And that basically funnels into our four system type of I guess you could say verification And so we're mining that, which publishes every week. But the problem we're kind of running into is that there's USDA data. Sorry, when you say we're mining that, what is this report? Let's go step by step. What is this report that the USDA publishes every week? Yeah. So the USDA is publishing basically auction prices throughout the region, throughout the countries. So every auction house will report kind of what they're paying or what they're seeing on the ground there. And then it will be put on a PDFs, but buried in PDFs. So it's kind of hard for people to find. Yeah. So you actually call up some of the auction houses. By the way, I didn't even realize there were auctions for hay. But you call them up to get additional pricing information as well, right? Yeah, so we actually have Rock Valley, Iowa, Rock Valley Hay Auction as our primary data partner, which is one of the biggest hay auctions in the country. So having them to kind of get intel from what they're seeing on the ground to kind of cover the gray area between the USDA data and then the live market, what people are actually seeing on the ground. And we are actively trying to you know branch off and network to more auction houses throughout the country to different regions so we can kind of get a forecast what actually happening there Joe this reminds me of the old scrap metal market right Where like you had a broker who actually had to call up all these junkyards and ask what price they were selling. I don't know if that's still the case, but it might actually still be the case. And I remember 11 or 12 years ago, like very early on when I joined Bloomberg, talking to one of our reporters, she was based in London, who was covering scrap metal. And she talked about that part of it was essentially calling up the scrap yards and say, what did you price for? And of course, it's not that different from LIBOR, right? It's not like we think of something like these very opaque, illiquid markets like scrap metal. But that fundamental idea of we're going to ring people up or get an email or something and then triangulate the data is how some of the most famous liquid markets there are. That's the alpha, alpha, alpha. That's the – yes. Calling people up. Calling people up. Wait, so just on these reports that the USDA publishes, I assume A, is it just a hay report? And do they just publish price data or volume data or quality data? Is there anything else that like, what is the context with which you pull this data from? Yeah, so there's many sources that [10:00] We can pull our data from, but specifically on the USDA data, it'll show the region, the type of bale, the weight, you know, the quality of hay or alfalfa that's producing. So and that automatically goes into our database and it kind of makes it easy for us. So when we take on ground intel that we can put it through our data wheel and it's able to, you know, cross reference it with the USDA data and the table, it kind of presets. So we're able to make sure it's not the data that's coming from the ground is, you know, valuable and actually not hallucinations, I guess. You know, I know we're going to get to Hay specifically, but just as we're talking about sort of this business model, there have been some really successful, you know, I think like it might be Flightradar24. And for one of these other things that was worth a lot of money was essentially some people who found a really good way to visualize or present data that was already public, but it's opaque, et cetera. And so I'm very fascinated by this business model of like there's all this data out there. And if you put a nice skin on it then you make a user interface and actually like let me just see the price or let me just see the map that it moving on can suddenly be a very monetizable thing Well I expect with vibe coding it going to become more common as well So Aiden why did you decide to get into this particular project If you don't mind me saying so, you look very young. I assume you're a young founder of Haywire. Why was this your first project? Yeah, your passion project. Oh, man. Well, if you were to tell me this last year, I want to believe you because the idea was kind of thrown out by my dad, who was actually looking to start a startup company for alfalfa cubes. And throughout that process, he kind of needed he was crunching number. And he asked the question, what is the cost of hay to, you know, find that raw materials price? So that's kind of how it all started. And he's like, Aiden, you know, you should probably like start this. It's a great idea. And, you know, at the time, I'm like, OK, come on. I'm 19 years old. I'm a college basketball player. I don't really care about hay. Which year was it? This was 2025. Okay, oh, okay. Keep going. So this conversation happened in 2025, and at the time, I'm a college basketball player. I don't really care about Hay, but I always knew I wanted to kind of get into entrepreneurship I guess And I like Dad you know I want to run a you know Hayes definitely not going to get me a girlfriend So that kind of how it started And that kind of how it started. And, you know, as I got to college, I was introduced to kind of AI, which kind of started out as, you know, vibe coding websites for local businesses. And then I actually my co-founder, Cole, who is very intelligent with the AI, We kind of just started working together about it to get to the more agentic and automation type of AI. So that kind of started a rabbit hole. I'm like, which kind of started out as a vibe code project with no infrastructure or no system at all. Kind of turned into something we thought we knew that was reachable. So we kind of got into that. You know, just we basically hop on a call every day deciding how we can improve our product, improve our technology so we can produce the best volume. And the hay market's very untransparent, I guess you could say. So we found a problem, first week of college classes, in the business class you're gonna learn, okay, you need to find a problem and then a solution to start a successful business. And that's kind of how it all came about. And we've been kind of attacking it every day. And I very grateful for my dad to ask the question what is the price of alfalfa in hay Do you have a girlfriend now Did you get one yet Absolutely not So people ask what type of business you run And I just say I try to, you know, mask it as something really intelligent. Like, yeah, I run a market intelligent AI infrastructure company, not just a market, hay market company. So no, I'm in the process all right well all thoughts listeners in minnesota uh eligible young bachelor uh 20 years old um just uh we're just putting it out there maybe we'll do uh we can do some matchmaking for you um just um had your dad had this idea i don't know had this been 10 years earlier like orders of magnitude would this have been doable at all to you and your co-founder in a real way prior to AI and vibe coding as we know it? Oh, no. 10 years ago, I don't think I would even scratch the surface of getting to the death that I am here now. And that's just simply because I think the infrastructure of AI is getting smarter and smarter every day, and it makes it able for two young 20-year-olds like me and my co-founder Cole to mess around and create a whole company and platform. So, yeah, I don't think it would be – It would probably take a big team 10 years [15:00] go. Tracy, I already want to be Aiden Johnson. Everything about this is just so cool to me. In my next life, this is my plan. Well, go out and find that niche market, Joe. Find your hay. Find your alfalfa. What is your hay? Pursue your Timothy dream. Okay, well, why don't we actually get to hay prices? So first of all, if I try to look up hay prices, I'm definitely going to Haywire, but setting Haywire aside, But what am I trying to find? Is there a benchmark hay price out there the way there is? You know, when we talk about U.S. stocks, we talk about the S&P 500 or another index like the Dow Jones. Is there a particular hay price I should be looking at? You know, not really. The USDA NASS is what it's called, will, you know, produce kind of an average cost of hay. So right now I'm looking at hay for April. it's $180 per ton, which is up $167 from March. And then for the alfalfa side of things, it's $185 a ton, which is up from $175 since March. So essentially I was talking to Levi Russ at Rock Valley and I was kind of explaining this issue And I like how do people really know what they paying for hay And what do they benchmark it against? Because people aren't really going into those USDA PDF files unless you kind of have a degree in economics and have the time to find it. So I kind of talked to him and he's like, yeah, actually, we have a lot of people in our region, Rock Valley specifically is in the Midwest, use their auction data as the benchmark of kind of what hay is going for. So the crazy thing about the hay market is what I realized is not just one market. It's like fragmented markets across the whole country. Every market, every regional market is very hyper local simply because transportation costs are a lot. You can't domestically transport it across the country. And then you think like there's so many inputs on how it affects the quality of hay to produce the output. You know, Minnesota hay may not be the same as California hay in terms of price because it's just all very hyper local markets. Whether you planning a big tech event launching a Thank you and many items come with no setup charge to help you save. And if you're really watching the bottom line, you'll find standout choices at every price point so you can make a real impact while staying on budget. Plus, you'll get expert help, fast turnaround times, and their 360-degree guarantee, so you can be 4imprint certain your order will arrive on time and look exactly right. Whatever your goal, 4imprint makes it easy to find your perfect promo match. Explore the possibilities today at 4imprint.com. for imprint for certain support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions buying the dip manually sweeping idle cash putting on a hedge on public you can now create ai agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf just describe what you want to do in plain English Like if the VIX hits 25 buy a put option on the S 500 Or if my cash balance goes above move the excess into my direct index You approve the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Let's talk about health care for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a health care company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected. [20:00] not complicated for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. Just don't the girlfriend thing. You're 6'6", and you can dunk a basketball, I see on Twitter. Okay, sorry. You're really doing all you can to help here, Joe. I'm looking at his Twitter profile, and you can dunk. I'm really impressed. I wish I couldn't dunk. I appreciate that. I appreciate it. Yeah, no, it's really cool. So let's talk about these. To what degree, all right, there's this lack of transparency and there's this wide variety of prices regionally, which, again, is not unlike many other commodities. I mean, even oil, obviously, has regional price variations. The cost of shipping is going to affect it But you know we talked about this with lumber with Stinson Dean as an example To what degree are they generally correlated across the country Like, will prices generally rise and fall around the same time, even if there are wide gaps and, you know, wide spreads from one region to another? Yeah, so there is a bunch of different factors to kind of how different regions can, you know, be affected by markets. I mean, you think of what's kind of going on in the West right now with the drought kind of going on. 46% of the U.S. alfalfa acreage is actually in a drought. So you might see some demand coming from the West, maybe moving east. But actually, I was kind of looking into this the other day, and I was kind of looking at the East Coast kind of because I don't really – like there's not really much out there, I guess, for hay. I mean, there's a lot of hobby farms, and it's like small square markets out there. But it's kind of its own ecosystem because it's cool because it won't really feel the effects of the drought from the west simply because transportation is a big factor in that. Because you not going to ship or transport hay that far because it will eventually cost more than the actual value of the hay Simply because these know these brokers these dealers will charge anywhere from five to eight dollars per mile to have it shipped So that can easily average to be more valuable than the hay So it kind of weird So yeah I guess So if I'm in a location, one of the drought stricken states, drought stricken states, that's hard to say. I'm reading the USDA, one of the USDA reports right now, and it says, hay prices continue to increase as ranchers search for hay. Are you seeing people who are trying to bulk buy or secure supply ahead of more price increases? I mean, yeah, I'm seeing right now and just talking with farmers, kind of networking across the country. I'm seeing people are trying to get their stockpile for summer. I'm hearing that first cut is being extremely light. The yields are not really producing at a volume and carryover from 2025 is essentially gone. Sorry. I actually did find, if you search on the terminal, Tracy, if you search USDA hay prices by state, then you can find some fairly regularly updated price indices. So I have to say I mean I understand you have a great business going but if any listeners just want to spend tens of thousands of dollars on the Bloomberg terminal they can also Any farmers out there Yeah So Bloomberg actually offers a haywire competitor. You just get a bunch of other stuff. You're probably not interested. But this gets to my. So, like, this is another important business question. Anyone can collect data and produce it. Then you have to find people who will purchase it from you. and this is the other half of business some people in the house produce and some people sell how did you how do you go about um finding farmers or growers or anyone in the business anyone in the chain how do you get them to discover haywire i guess just networking obviously discovery a big part of that has been on the homestead reddit where tracy kind of found everything but you know just actively reaching out to them i guess kind of just showing them, okay, this is what we're trying to do, trying to be that transparency layer, just to kind of make your guys' local markets a little easier for you and not kind of guessing and buying blind and selling blind. So we're basically going to them and we're like, okay, this has no cost for you, just kind of tell us what you're seeing so we can provide that clarity and transparency for hay prices. [25:00] We're not going to fix the whole transparency issue. We're going to try, but we probably won't. But we just at least want to make it a little more transparent for your local region. These farmers know their regional market like the back of their hand. And especially these old-gen farmers, they're not really going to adapt to technology like that. So it's been kind of difficult trying to get them to adapt to be like, okay, this is technology nowadays. This can actually really help your business. So I'm honestly just networking with them, providing, you know, kind of the data we're seeing and kind of value and telling them that there's no really cost to just kind of sharing me your data. So Tracy mentioned the sort of timing of purchases or people trying to accumulate or stockpile. At times of high stress, when prices are really high, again, maybe due to a drought or whatnot, do you see farmers essentially expanding their geographical search such that they start buying hay from an auction house or a hay farm or whatever that wouldn't normally be under typical conditions economical for them to purchase from? Yeah you know I actually had this question the other day and I was on a call with Rock Valley my main go guy and I was like are you guys seeing any shipping or any transactions coming from more west of you Yeah. I just kind of – I was kind of testing the hypothesis of, okay, so the drought is very tight over in these western states. Are buyers coming over to these eastern states and producing it? Because we did see a spike kind of in auction data. We kind of covered it a little bit, maybe on the Reddit, but we called it kind of the Missouri pattern. It was kind of a hypothesis we were testing. So it basically is, so after we figured out that the drought and supply is very tight there in the western states, we started watching those western Midwest states. So we saw demand or prices in Missouri go up. And they're like, okay, well, we'll keep an eye on it. And then the next week we saw Rock Valley's prices kind of spike a little bit. And they're like, okay, so maybe there is some demand coming over from there. And then the next week we saw it go up a little bit again. So it's kind of what we're seeing right now. I can't confirm fully if it's true because Auction House, we track in Missouri, posts their data monthly. And then Rock Valley weekly So it just kind of cool I guess it like a Lego set and I kind of just like building piece by piece And it like a puzzle trying to solve the puzzle OK so talk to us I know you're not in agriculture directly, but I'm sure you've heard some things about this. Talk to us about the second order effects of higher hay prices. And here I got to shout out our fellow Bloomberg podcaster, Katie Greifeld, who has a horse. And so I asked her if she had noticed any changes in hay prices, and she said the cost of boarding had gone up because of hay prices. Boarding. Board the horse. And then I saw another headline just before we recorded this podcast about a horse sanctuary in Texas on the brink of closure because of rising hay prices and also gas. So are people feeling the effects of these higher prices? Yeah, absolutely. I'm just talking with farmers and you even horse owners across the country. I personally, my family owns horses, so I can kind of see this firsthand. But yeah, I've been talking to a lot of farmer or horse owners and they're basically saying we love our horse so much, but the return on investment on horses right now is just like it's too it's too expensive. No I paying so much to maintain a horse and we don know like exactly what what we going to do because it so expensive But and then on the other side of things some dairy houses um these these dairies are going to be the ones buying the higher quality RFV alfalfa to um you know feed these cows that are producing 80 pounds of milk a day. And they're actually taking that high, higher quality RFV and then mixing it with lower quality RFV to, you know, um, control their rations and maybe create a little more volume. So especially with these crazy high prices, they can kind of control their volume a little more. And then on top of that, I was talking to a farmer the other day and he said, so he went to go put his hay up in the auction, but he actually pulled it back because the demand for hay was getting so increasingly, it was getting really tight and he needed the hay. So he's kind of predicting it to get even tighter. So yeah, As I can tell, a lot of people are kind of feeling the outcomes of these high hay prices. Just to back up for example, so you mentioned horses. Cows also eat hay, right? Yes, yes. Okay, so cows. Cows will eat. There's different types of qualities, I guess you could say. Yeah, walk through these qualities. Did you say something like RFD? What was the term used? Like higher? What was it? [30:00] The relative feed value, which basically is, which I think I'm pretty sure it controls or it, it gets the protein contents and the fiber in the hay. And it's, it's a base of a hundred. So anything like 150, I think is pretty good below that. You can see the lower quality hay. So like I said, the dairies are going to be using that higher quality alfalfa and supreme hay, higher RFV to have their cows on the best. And then you're going to have the, the econ people, the horses also using this higher quality stuff because they love their horses and they only want what's best for their horses. And then you have the lower quality type of stuff, which is going to go to like the utility and fair, which is going to go to your beef, which are, it's just a cheap way to, you know, beef up your cow for a cheaper price instead of paying the premium alfalfa. And then, yeah, there's, there's, there's so many different qualities. Yeah, yeah. Just real quickly. So hay made out of alfalfa is high quality. What is low quality hay made out of? Yeah so low quality hay which will be lower RFV I pretty sure you know I not a farm kid but I pretty sure it the amount of dryness and the protein contents So when it rains rain affects a lot You have to have a dry week or forecast to produce or cut hay And if it rains, rain can decrease the protein and nutritional value in the hay. I think the lower quality stuff is drier and doesn't have the leaf content that the higher quality stuff does. because that's where the protein is in the leaf and then the fiber comes from the stem. Whether you're planning a big tech event, launching a new campaign, or just stocking up on team gear, finding the right promotional products makes all the difference. 4imprint offers thousands of options. from on-trend apparel and premium drinkware to tech, totes, and giveaways, so you can find the right fit for any audience, purpose, or budget. You can customize it all, your logo, your message, your look, and many items come with no setup charge to help you save. And if you're really watching the bottom line, you find standout choices at every price point so you can make a real impact while staying on budget Plus you get expert help fast turnaround times and their 360 guarantee So you can be 4imprint certain your order will arrive on time and look exactly right Whatever your goal, 4imprint makes it easy to find your perfect promo match. Explore the possibilities today at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. 4certain. Support for this show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less That public slash market Paid for by Public Investing Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing Inc member FINRA and SIPC Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Let's talk about health care for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a health care company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system. So care is connected, not complicated for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care. And then using technology to make sure they all work together. technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. Are you seeing anyone [35:00] devote more acreage to growing hay as a result of these high prices? Because I'm kind of thinking, I got two fields. They're not doing anything except growing invasive weeds at the moment. Maybe I could rent them out for hay production. Yeah. I'm not really seeing that, but I'm not really sure on that one if I'm seeing people doing that. But I actually was thinking about this other day, driving past 20 minutes south of me, I was driving on the highway and I realized that Google was actually going to build a 482 acre data center 20 minutes south of me. And I was like thinking, how will this affect the agricultural land? I mean, you know, it's already not a lot of people are, alfalfa's kind of in a weird spot and hay because they're already competing against the other crops, you know, the more stable crops like corn and soybeans. So how are these data centers going to, you know, they're going to go in agricultural land. So kind of vice versa. You were saying, how are they going to take away this agricultural land. And I was kind of thinking too, the 482 acre data center Google's building here is going to be cooled by air. But what if you put those kind of in the Western states and where the drought conditions are and alfalfa is already a very water intrusive plant So then alfalfa is going to have to be competing with these big data centers for water i i really i really i really seeing kind of the flip side of it kind of kind of just what i'm seeing personally so but yeah you did mention you had 75 acres and um i think you do have four different options from i know that's kind of the next niche i kind of want to get into because once again it's kind of like the hay not my dad's kind of going through the same process. He just closed on 164 acre farm here. And he had the question of, I don't really know what to do with it. But I don't know. I'm not an expert on it yet. But I do know there's a couple options. You can rent it out to your farm or to farmers, basically like rent per acre. And then you can, the USDA will basically pay you to conserve it. And then the downside of that is you probably lose your land or access to your land for 25 to 35 years. And then the third choice is kind of the money crop right now, I guess you can, these solar panel companies are coming in to maybe place solar panel panels on your fields for a huge chunk of change. But also, are you okay with you know putting solar panel on appreciating farmland So I mean there a couple options And like you said you can also grow start growing hay or grow whatever crop is producing the most money I guess So there some options that that as much as I know right now But, yeah, it's pretty interesting. Tracy, have you considered putting a data center on your land? Is that something? You could put maybe half the land solar panels and then they could power a data center on the other. That's right. It's like a jackpot episode of things that we're interested in. Well, the solar panel thing is true because in the Northeast where I'm based some of the time, I see a lot of farms that are now like just solar panels. Really? Huge fields of solar panels. Wow. They're so big. In fact, whenever I drive past one, it's so big. It looks like a body of water off in the distance. Oh, that's kind of beautiful. I don't know. Sure. I mean, it's interesting. Yeah, it's interesting. Yeah, it's interesting. How big is the hay market just generally? Like what do we, like, again, I don't know, like, yeah, how big is it volume wise, dollar wise, all that stuff? Yeah. So the hay market is actually pretty, pretty dang big. I mean you have hay acreage covering 49 to 50 million acres across the US and itself alfalfa itself is producing billion per year which is the fourth most valuable crop And that kind of brings my question back to so it's pretty big market commodity and there's not really a firm transparency layer. So yeah, it's really big. Are you still in college? Yep, I just finished my first two years at the University of Jamestown, going into my third. Oh, wow. Okay, so you're juggling a business as well as college. What's next for Haywire? You mentioned maybe evaluating different options for landowners, but where do you want to take this? Yeah, so I guess, like I said, the main goal is kind of be on top of the hay chain. You got your producers, your farmers, and then you got your brokers. We kind of want to be at the top, being the benchmark data for these prices regionally. So we just want to be that information layer on the top and, you know, just providing this information to these farmers so they can kind of make better decisions based off of timing and then based off of what the market is actually seeing in their region. You know, I would I like the newsletter. I kind of like hearing people connect, connecting to people. I love answering my emails and kind of picking people's brains. And then we would. [40:00] We would eventually like to also be just kind of more the business side of things, give someone maybe our API database and they can use it for their website. That's kind of a business plan, not necessarily what we want out of the hay market. But yeah, that's kind of what we want to do, just build that transparency layer a little better. You know, we work for a company that sort of – I mean really, I started under like the same premise. So like you literally – this could one day be a Fortune 500 company for you. I mean, the idea of like – Agricultural database. Yeah, find some data niche, make it built, layer on top. I have a confession. Yeah. So when I started first planning this business, our motto was the Bloomberg for Hay. There we go. There we go. You know, we've had – so can I say something? We've had people come on. I've seen the Bloomberg of X, Bloomberg of Y. People always say this. This I find to be legitimate. You know what I'm saying? Everyone wants to be the Bloomberg of something. But when I think about how you're like building this from the ground up, et cetera, like you didn't even have to say it. It was like you are building the potentially the Bloomberg of hey and one day you may have a TV network Could we have hey futures based on if we have benchmark prices so that a question I mean this is that clearly a theoretical way which is like you can have a hedgeable tradable, financialized market until you first have that index, right? Something that everyone agrees on as a reference price. At night, when you dream about the future, like, could you see, have you thought about the possibility of essentially, okay, this could be something that financial exchanges could now benchmark something against? you know i have thought about it but it's also very tricky because you have to have mother nature on your side to kind of standardize the or like make it more stable i guess it's very unstable i mean too much drought uh too much rain you know too much heat like all these different inputs can really have effects on the outputs that just makes it so unpredictable yeah you know but this is why yeah this is why we need a this is why we need a hedgeable instrument precisely because of this volatility. So I think there's- Yeah, there's something there. Yeah, there's something there for sure. I would love to be the guy that does that then. So from your perspective let say like opacity is a friend to some people in any business right There are a lot of businesses that sort of you know they can have higher margins because their customers aren't aware of the prices available. Like the, you know, obviously the consumer wants more transparency, but some people benefit from the opacity. Is there anyone in the supply chain of hay, et cetera, or in the market for hay that theoretically stands to lose out if customers and farmers are more informed about prices. Yeah, absolutely. So this kind of ties back to my dad working for a private brokerage here in my hometown. And I was actually talking about this with him. I said, who kind of loses out on this? And he says, typically in business, especially commodities, the middleman will always feel the outcomes of more transparency because they're the ones making deals, especially in the hay market, kind of blindly and kind of just guessing. I mean, I called, I witnessed firsthand my, I sat there and someone called the owner and was just like, can I do 157, this is an example, can I just do $157 per ton for X amount of bales or tons? And he was like yeah yeah that works So we not going off anything here There no transparency And that can either work for the broker or that can you know maybe make margins a little slimmer So I do think that the middleman will always, you know, have something to lose with more transparency. All right. Aiden Johnson of Haywire. Thank you so much for coming on OddLots. That was really fun. Yeah, I appreciate you guys having me on. so joe that was a really fun conversation i mean it is fascinating to see someone like vibe code this kind of database right and it does seem like low-hanging fruit for a bunch of other different markets what i will say though is whenever we do these like agricultural or food episodes there seems to be this overriding theme in recent years which is volatility volatility right we're getting these big spikes sometimes we're getting big drops down although often the drops are not as big as the initial spikes and so you can see like there is a need here not just for price transparency but also potentially for some sort of hedging instrument totally i absolutely i do think there's a lot of uh probably a lot more data out there i was [45:00] I think this is like a very interesting AI story specifically because it's a very clear example of here is a new type of business that might not have been economical to run. Like, you know, maybe there's not tons of subscribers willing to pay up. For sure you wouldn't have been doing it while you're in college. No. So the pro version, so he has a free version of his newsletter, which I'm going to subscribe to. And there's a pro version. And, you know what, I'll subscribe to that, too. It's just $14 a month. But OK, $14 a month is like not a ton of money, even if you have like, you know, a thousand, you know, it's like it's not a ton. But if you could do it with two people and if you can automate a really big chunk of it and automate it only because AI makes it really easy to do things like ingest the data, turn them into pretty charts and so forth, keep a database, give people access. Because suddenly there all these new markets that theoretically could become unlocked simply because here is data out there and you could put it in a usable form in a way that would have just been too laborious prior to it Yeah labellious Too labellious Bales of hay No that was a bit forced I sorry But it is a clear example of like okay, this is a productivity unlock. Yeah. And I've no doubt that it works. Some things with AI don't work as well, but I'm pretty sure. Pure scraping. But automated, you can feel pretty confident that that's something that you can build, et cetera. I'm very, I think it's really cool. Oh, the price of being a founding member is going to rise to $17 a month after June 30th. So get it. Rising along with the hay prices. Yeah. All right. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow Aiden Johnson. He's at AidenJohnson underscore. And check out Haywire, haywireag.com. And if you enjoy Odd Lots if you like it when we talk about hay prices then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. Thank you. For more at every price point And with their 360 guarantee you can be 4imprint certain your order will show up just right right on time Explore more at 4imprint 4imprint. 4certain. Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? 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