Iran Truce Fails to Shield Asian Economies From Prolonged Food and Energy Shocks
Bloomberg
Even with the Strait of Hormuz reopening, high fuel costs and delayed agricultural disruptions threaten long-term inflation and political instability across emerging Asian nations.
## Background
The Iran War’s Lasting Scars Across Asia was published on June 16, 2026 by Bloomberg on their RSS/web platform for the Big Take Asia podcast. Featuring guest Oanh Ha along with Odd Lots co-hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, the episode explores how an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz offers short-term relief while deep structural shifts in energy, food, and supply chains ripple across Asia.
## TL;DR
Despite news of an interim peace deal between the US and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has inflicted severe, long-term economic damage across Asia. Emerging economies bear the brunt of energy-driven 'demand destruction' and crippling fuel costs, while a secondary agricultural crisis looms due to missed planting seasons and fertilizer shortages. Simultaneously, the relentless AI capital boom in South Korea and Taiwan exposes fragile supply chains to critical raw material shortages like helium, signaling a permanent shift toward a protectionist 'choke point economy.'
## Atmosphere & style
The podcast carries an analytical, sober, yet engagingly conversational tone driven by the sharp back-and-forth rapport of Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, and Oanh Ha. The co-hosts pair deep macroeconomic analysis with grounded real-world anecdotes—ranging from Thai fishermen stranded at docks to Hong Kong pandemic toilet paper hoarding—creating a vivid picture of systemic disruption. The narrative arc moves from immediate market relief to deep-seated anxiety over second-order shocks in food and energy, delivering a grounded, pragmatic exploration of global economic fragility.
## Key takeaways
- `00:00` An interim deal between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a relief rally, but long-term structural damage across Asian supply chains remains.
- `00:00` Emerging Asian economies bear a heavier burden from energy shocks than wealthy nations due to a lack of strategic petroleum reserves and fiscal capacity for subsidies.
- `00:00` The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down to near-operational minimums (349 million barrels) to cushion domestic prices.
- `10:00` A strengthening US dollar and high oil prices are forcing emerging central banks to drain reserves, hurting industrial feedstocks like petrochemicals.
- `10:00` Inelastic global demand for AI infrastructure keeps investment flowing to chip manufacturing hubs in South Korea and Taiwan regardless of broader macroeconomic strain.
- `10:00` Supply chain vulnerabilities like helium shortages for semiconductor cooling threaten high-tech industries during regional waterway choke-point closures.
- `15:00` Rising fuel and fertilizer prices are forcing smallholder farmers across Southeast Asia to skip planting seasons, setting up a severe delayed food supply crisis in 6 to 12 months.
- `15:00` Soaring food costs threaten to compress household spending, shifting consumer budgets away from discretionary electronics and manufactured goods.
- `20:00` Surging fuel expenses have made traditional industries like fishing in Southeast Asia unprofitable, leaving fleets anchored.
- `20:00` Historical patterns demonstrate that agricultural stress and food price inflation frequently act as primary catalysts for severe political upheaval.
- `21:20` The long-term efficacy of economic sanctions as a diplomatic tool is increasingly undermined as targets like North Korea show unexpected resilience.
- `21:20` Repeated supply chain shocks have created a permanent 'choke point economy,' driving nations toward protectionism, resource hoarding, and structurally higher inflation.
## Detailed walkthrough
Here is a detailed, faithful walkthrough of Part 1 of the transcript:
`00:00` Geopolitical Shocks, Energy Spikes, and the Growing Divide Between Rich and Emerging Asia
The episode opens with news that the United States and Iran reached an interim deal to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting an oil price drop and a relief rally across Asian markets as both sides prepare to meet in Switzerland on June 19 to formally ratify the agreement. At the G7 summit in France, President Donald Trump touted the deal, stating that ships are beginning to move and the vital waterway will be completely open by Friday. However, Bloomberg’s *Odd Lots* co-hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal emphasize that even if the route reopens, the structural damage and long-term economic shifts across Asia are already set in motion. Over the past six years, global markets have realized that massive "one-off" disruptions recur with alarming frequency, forcing nations to internalize the need for supply chain independence, extra production capacity, and deep stockpiles.
Host Oanh Ha notes that while the interim peace deal brings immediate headline relief, the war in Iran and the virtual shutdown of the Strait slapped a heavy "war tax" on crucial commodities—and its burdens are distributed unevenly. Developing nations with limited resources lack the deep strategic petroleum reserves that wealthy countries like the U.S. and Japan rely on. Instead, emerging Asian economies are forced into aggressive "demand destruction" to curb consumption and prevent economic collapse.
```
- Hong Kong Gasoline Prices: ~HK$33 per liter (~$16 per gallon), representing a 15% jump since the Iran war began.
- Hong Kong Diesel Prices: Soared by nearly 50%.
- China Oil Demand: J.P. Morgan estimates a 9% drop in Chinese oil demand—roughly 1.5 million barrels per day—due to heavy demand-destruction measures.
- Hong Kong Government Intervention: Setting aside the equivalent of $230 million USD in fuel subsidies to cushion consumer sticker shock.
```
The contrast between developed and developing nations highlights a stark fiscal disparity. While wealthier economies like Hong Kong or Germany can afford hundreds of millions in direct subsidies, poorer emerging nations are left urging citizens not to drive or fly, with some regions forced into rolling blackouts because they simply cannot afford fuel. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been drawing down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to cushion domestic prices, but it is fast approaching its operational threshold. The U.S. SPR currently stands at 349 million barrels—its lowest level since post-COVID dips—rapidly approaching its operational minimum of roughly 250 million barrels. Once that buffer is exhausted, the U.S. will face its own sharp economic reality.
> "If we had $16 gasoline in the U.S., there would definitely be a revolution for sure."
---
`10:00` Dollar Strength, The AI Capital Boom, and Semiconductor Risks
As global interest rates rise—fueled by energy price shocks and the massive AI investment boom centered in the United States—the U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly. This creates severe headwinds for emerging Asian economies. To raise foreign exchange reserves and afford expensive oil imports, some central banks appear to be liquidating gold reserves, which exacerbates foreign currency exposure and undermines future fiscal stability. High oil prices also starve industrial sectors of essential feedstocks like petrochemicals, depressing broader output, though it offers a slight silver lining by accelerating investments in renewable infrastructure and electric vehicles.
However, Joe Weisenthal points out that traditional macroeconomic indicators like exchange rates and interest rates are currently being "swamped" by the existential imperative to win the artificial intelligence race. Regardless of currency fluctuations or fiscal strain, tech giants and governments are pouring billions into Asian tech infrastructure, making demand for key components completely inelastic.
```
- Key AI Hardware Hubs: South Korea and Taiwan remain indispensable suppliers of advanced memory chips and logic processors.
- Critical Semiconductor Raw Material: Helium—essential for extreme cooling during advanced semiconductor fabrication.
- Japan Inflation Data: Wholesale inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in three years, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) surging to 6%.
```
Both Tracy and Joe highlight a critical vulnerability in global supply chains: the supply of helium. Crucial for advanced semiconductor manufacturing due to its unique low-temperature cooling properties, helium supply has virtually no short-term elasticity. Because a significant portion of global trade flows through regional choke points, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens chipmaking facilities if helium runs short. Furthermore, rising inflation across Asia is driving central banks—including the Bank of Japan—toward monetary tightening. Global supply chains face a self-reinforcing inflationary loop: as companies and governments simultaneously scramble to build up physical stockpiles of energy, chips, and raw materials to protect against future disruptions, that very hoarding consumes resources and drives prices higher.
> "The yuan could go up. The yuan could go down. It doesn't matter. We're going to be shipping a lot of dollars to Korea and Taiwan for key infrastructure for the AI buildout."
---
`15:00` The Hidden Agricultural Crisis and Asia's Delayed Food Shock
While governments have managed early energy shocks through reserves and price controls, a far more severe second-order crisis is brewing in Asia's agricultural sector. Citing an episode with former Irish farmer Lorcan Kelly, Joe and Tracy explain that the true damage of supply disruptions appears 6 to 12 months down the line when initial planting decisions materialize into actual harvests. Across Southeast Asia, smallholder farmers are skipping the current planting season entirely because soaring diesel prices have made running tractors and irrigation water pumps unaffordable. In some cases, farmers are choosing to let existing crops rot in the field because they cannot afford the fuel required to harvest them.
```
- Agricultural Stress Factors: Skyrocketing diesel prices and severe shortages of imported fertilizers.
- Economic Ripple Effect: Rising food costs compress household budgets, shifting consumer spending away from manufactured goods toward basic survival needs.
- Downstream Impact on China: Reduced consumer purchasing power across Southeast Asia may force China to curtail its industrial imports as overseas demand for its manufactured goods dries up.
```
This impending agricultural squeeze threatens to shift global markets from an energy crisis into a widespread food security crisis. Drawing on a historical parallel from economic historian Adam Tooze regarding ancient agricultural economies, the hosts note that when basic survival needs become uncertain, discretionary economic activity evaporates. As food prices spike over the coming months, consumers across emerging Asia will redirect spending toward basic staples, drastically altering regional trade patterns and manufacturing demand long after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
> "The problem is going to arise in six months and 12 months time when the decisions we made today about 'do I plant that field of wheat or do I breed more cattle for next year?'... If you're struggling to buy food, you're not going to be buying electronics."
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`20:00` Agricultural Disruptions and Political Risk
Reflecting on the historical relationship between war and agriculture, the hosts note that as far back as Roman times, emperors explicitly tried to time military conflicts so they wouldn't coincide with the planting season. This preserved essential food supplies and ensured farmers were actually available to serve as soldiers—a historical lesson that modern leaders seem to have forgotten. Focusing on the immediate real-world fallout in Asia, recent reporting highlights the plight of fishermen in Bangkok, Thailand, who are forced to keep their boats anchored at the docks. Because rising fuel costs now swallow up more than half the expense of every fishing trip and fishermen are unable to pass those costs along by raising the price of their catch, going out to sea has simply become unprofitable.
This dynamic raises critical questions about how quickly agricultural and food supply stresses can escalate into major political instability. While some analysts debate whether skyrocketing wheat prices were the primary catalyst for the Arab Spring, history demonstrates that food inflation and resource strain frequently trigger severe political upheaval. The hosts caution against the hubris of assuming that these historical cycles—backed by thousands of years of data points—have somehow ceased to apply to the modern world, especially when leadership attention is diverted elsewhere.
- In Thailand, fuel costs now account for more than 50% of the total cost for every fishing trip, driving fishermen to leave their boats anchored rather than operate at a loss.
- Historical precedent shows a direct link between food price spikes and political instability, such as the surge in wheat prices prior to the Arab Spring.
`21:20` Sanctions, the "Choke Point Economy," and Lasting Shifts
The conversation turns to the declining effectiveness of sanctions as one of the United States' primary non-weapon diplomatic tools, particularly amidst energy crunches. Citing a report in *The Wall Street Journal*, the hosts highlight how North Korea’s economy is performing surprisingly well—demonstrating visible signs of an improved standard of living and active housing construction—despite being one of the most heavily sanctioned nations on Earth for decades. This reality calls into question the long-held assumption that economic sanctions can reliably crush an adversary or force political compliance.
Looking at the broader, long-term consequences of the conflict, the speakers emphasize the emergence of a permanent "choke point economy." Over the past several years, global supply chains have been repeatedly hit by supposedly "one-off" disruptions that are now occurring with alarming frequency. Drawing a humorous parallel to living in Hong Kong during the COVID-19 pandemic—which left a lasting impulse to permanently hoard extra toilet paper—the hosts observe that nations and businesses are permanently altering their behavior. While the world remains deeply integrated, the overarching trajectory of global trade has reversed direction from the late 20th century, replaced by rising trade barriers, geopolitical distrust, and ongoing pressures on productivity and prices.
- A *Wall Street Journal* report revealed unexpected economic activity and housing development in North Korea despite long-standing, severe international sanctions.
- "Each disruption is slightly different in what it actually is, but they're happening more often," giving rise to an era defined by a "choke point economy."
- The shift away from late-20th-century globalization toward protectionism and trade barriers is expected to have long-term structural consequences for global productivity and inflation.
## Notable quotes
> `00:00` If we had $16 gasoline in the U.S., there would definitely be a revolution for sure.
> `10:00` The yuan could go up. The yuan could go down. It doesn't matter. We're going to be shipping a lot of dollars to Korea and Taiwan for key infrastructure for the AI buildout. — Joe Weisenthal
> `15:00` The problem is going to arise in six months and 12 months time when the decisions we made today about 'do I plant that field of wheat or do I breed more cattle for next year?'... If you're struggling to buy food, you're not going to be buying electronics.
> `21:20` Each disruption is slightly different in what it actually is, but they're happening more often
## Mentioned
Bloomberg, Odd Lots, Oanh Ha, Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Donald Trump, Strait of Hormuz, Iran, United States, J.P. Morgan, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Bank of Japan, Lorcan Kelly, Adam Tooze, The Wall Street Journal, North Korea, Thailand, G7
Bloomberg's Odd Lots program argues that despite an interim U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has inflicted lasting structural damage across Asia by widening the divide between rich and emerging nations and exposing critical supply chain vulnerabilities.
Asymmetric Energy Shocks and Fiscal Divergence (0:00)
While an interim agreement aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the disruption imposed an immediate "war tax" that highlights sharp fiscal disparities across Asia. Developed economies have cushioned consumer prices through subsidies and stockpiles: the Hong Kong government allocated roughly $230 million USD in fuel subsidies to buffer a 15% gasoline price increase to HK$33 per liter (~$16 per gallon) and a nearly 50% diesel surge. In the United States, continuous drawdowns reduced the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 349 million barrels, rapidly nearing its operational floor of 250 million barrels.
Conversely, developing economies lacking substantial reserves have been forced into aggressive demand destruction. J.P. Morgan estimates a 9% drop in Chinese oil demand (approximately 1.5 million barrels per day), while poorer emerging markets have resorted to rolling blackouts, advised citizens against driving or flying, and begun liquidating central bank gold reserves to fund dollar-denominated fuel imports.
Tech Inelasticity and Critical Material Bottlenecks (10:00)
Although high global interest rates and energy prices have strengthened the U.S. dollar, co-host Joe Weisenthal observes that currency pressures are being overshadowed by the artificial intelligence investment cycle. Tech companies and governments maintain completely inelastic demand for advanced logic processors and memory hardware from South Korea and Taiwan, ensuring that capital continues flowing to Asian tech hubs regardless of macroeconomic volatility.
However, regional manufacturing faces physical choke-point risks. Helium—an indispensable input for cooling during advanced semiconductor fabrication that has virtually no short-term supply elasticity—faces severe disruption when trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked. Concurrently, Japan's Producer Price Index accelerated to 6%, its fastest wholesale pace in three years, adding to monetary tightening pressures as corporate and state hoarding drives a self-reinforcing inflationary cycle.
Delayed Agricultural Fallout and Political Risk (15:00)
The hosts highlight an overlooked second-order crisis in agriculture that threatens to transform the energy disruption into a food shock 6 to 12 months down the line. Surging diesel prices and fertilizer shortages have made tractor operation and irrigation pumps unaffordable for Southeast Asian smallholders, leading many to skip planting cycles or leave harvested crops to rot. In Thailand, fuel has climbed to over 50% of the cost of fishing voyages, leaving Bangkok fleets anchored at harbor because operations have become unprofitable.
Drawing on historical parallels ranging from ancient Roman military scheduling to the wheat-driven unrest preceding the Arab Spring, the program stresses that food inflation historically fuels political destabilization. As regional food prices escalate over the coming year, household expenditures in emerging Asia are forecast to shift from manufactured goods toward basic survival staples, which could depress regional consumer markets and curtail Chinese industrial exports.
The Rise of the Choke Point Economy (21:20)
The conflict reflects a structural transition from late-20th-century globalization to a permanent "choke point economy." Traditional diplomatic measures appear increasingly limited; a Wall Street Journal report cited by the hosts noted that North Korea's economy and domestic housing construction continue to show surprising resilience despite decades of comprehensive international sanctions.
Because once-rare logistical shocks now occur with regular frequency, companies and states are institutionalizing defensive strategies. Mandated domestic supply chain redundancy, expanded stockpiling, and rising protectionist barriers are displacing efficiency-focused trade networks, imposing long-term burdens on global productivity and baseline consumer prices.
The hosts conclude that reopening maritime routes cannot reverse the economic adjustments already underway across Asia. The key unresolved question is how emerging Asian economies will navigate the impending food security shock and redirected consumer spending without experiencing widespread political and industrial disruption.
[0:00] If we had $16 gasoline in the U.S., there would definitely be a revolution for sure.
[10:00] Joe Weisenthal: The yuan could go up. The yuan could go down. It doesn't matter. We're going to be shipping a lot of dollars to Korea and Taiwan for key infrastructure for the AI buildout.
[15:00] The problem is going to arise in six months and 12 months time when the decisions we made today about 'do I plant that field of wheat or do I breed more cattle for next year?'... If you're struggling to buy food, you're not going to be buying electronics.
[21:20] Each disruption is slightly different in what it actually is, but they're happening more often
Original transcript
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[5:00] anytime soon. On today's show, we dive into why Asia is feeling more economic pain from this conflict than Western nations, and what the new normal looks like for the region and the rest of the world. While the details of the proposed new deal between the U.S. and Iran remain unclear, one thing is certain. War in Iran and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz have effectively slapped a war tax on vital products, and it's impacted every corner of the global economy. You've probably felt the pinch in one way or another, but its effects haven't been distributed evenly. Wealthy countries like the U.S. and Japan have opted to drain their stockpiles of crude oil. In other corners of the world, governments are turning to demand destruction by encouraging industries and consumers to use less. But that risks slowing economic growth and triggering recession. It's a glaring disparity. And Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway says it highlights a structural vulnerability They often poorer countries They don have as big stockpiles of oil inventory And the one thing we seen developed countries do across the world is really start to dig into those stockpiles and release barrels in order to, I guess, cushion the higher prices. And so for a poorer country, I think that's one of the reasons in Asia you're seeing the governments really focused on demand destruction rather than propping up prices. So you've had, I think India was encouraging people not to go on flights, people are being urged not to drive to work, things like that. China is doing pretty much all the heavy lifting in terms of demand destruction or like the bulk of it. So I saw a JP Morgan estimate, I think, saying that demand for oil from China had fallen like 9%. I think that's 1.5 million barrels a day. It's huge. Yeah, it's a pretty big deal. And again, it stands in stark contrast to a lot of the developed nations like the US that are really digging into their stockpiles. You know, I don't know if you guys have noticed in your time here, the prices at gas stations Do you know how much gas in Hong Kong costs No no About 33 Hong Kong per liter which is its equivalent of about per gallon Wow Right That up about 15 since the Iran war began and diesel prices have actually jumped like near 50%. And I wonder, how does this stack up to what we've seen in the U.S.? And I guess more importantly, how does that feed into inflationary pressures? I mean, if we had $16 gasoline in the U.S., there would definitely be a revolution for sure. Yeah. Clearly, inflation is trending up in the U.S. for a number of reasons. One of them is oil. And so you might say, well, you strip that out because that goes into headline rather than core inflation. But then when you think about like everything has oil or energy in it, especially because of transport costs, it just builds that upward pressure. Throw in all the data center spending and the story is just like building heat and pressure on everything. And oil is just part of it. In some countries with limited resources, governments are left with little choice but to turn the lights off. But wealthier countries are playing a very different game. Instead of asking citizens to cut back, the countries who can afford it are spending heavily to absorb the sticker shock at the pump. You know here in Hong Kong the government is actually putting aside the equivalent of 230 million U dollars in a subsidy program to help manage soaring fuel prices It does seem like there's this imbalance in how the burden of the conflict is being carried, right? You've got developed economies like Hong Kong and Germany able to afford these subsidies, while you've got emerging countries who literally can't keep the lights on. What do you guys make of that disparity? And I guess the question is, is this something U.S. policymakers even think about? Probably not, to be honest. One of the interesting things here is, to me, is how long the U.S. can actually offset the pain of higher prices. They've obviously been releasing a lot from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The question is, how long can you actually keep doing it? And apparently the U.S. is now getting pretty close to its operational minimum. So I think I think the minimum is like 250 million barrels. And we're now at 349 million. Yeah. And it's the lowest. We're back to the post-COVID lows. Yeah, that's right. So the issue in the U.S. is like crunch time could come. Exactly. Like they're going to lose that buffer pretty soon. And I think Asia does seem caught in this trap that really is not.
[10:00] its own making, right? You've got interest rates that are rising globally, of course, driven by the war shocks and the AI investment boom centered in the US and the West. You've got the US dollar really strong right now. What do you think is impact of the US dollar strengthening on emerging Asian economies? Not good. So there's the outlook for economic growth and there's the outlook for the fiscal side, let's say. And so if you're spending money to subsidize oil prices and you're running through your stockpiles in some instances, then it becomes more expensive the longer it goes on. One of the theories I've seen for the falling gold price recently is that governments are selling or central banks are selling reserve assets in order to raise more foreign FX so that they can buy more oil at the higher prices. So it exacerbates foreign currency exposure for emerging markets and probably weakens their fiscal position in the future. And then in terms of economic growth, so obviously, if you can't get oil, if you can't get feedstock for plastics that pretty much in everything And so you see less economic activity But on the other hand if we see some countries respond to higher oil prices by actually building out more clean energy capacity, selling more EVs, for instance, then like that could be a little bit of an economic boost. And I'm not saying that it's enough to fully offset the impact, but like it's something at least. So let's get back to the context of the question. It doesn't matter what the price of the dollar is. People are going to spend a crazy amount of money on memory chips from Korea, period. The yuan could go up. The yuan could go down. It doesn't matter. We're going to be shipping a lot of dollars to Korea and Taiwan for key infrastructure for the AI build out. And so I think, yes, absolutely like the strength of the dollar is real. But I think we're in this very odd moment where because the AI race feels existential, that the traditional macro signals that we would look at like rates and FX are being swamped by the spending that everyone has just chosen to make for existential reasons on so many aspects of AI Yeah And to your point Asia is the backbone of the global AI ecosystem Factories here produce the chips that power the AI revolution But those factories rely heavily on energy and raw materials right So what happens if there's ongoing uncertainty or disruption at the Strait of Hormuz? Should we do helium? Yeah, I was going to. Yeah, go for it. No, you start. Well, I was just going to say, like, both of our minds went to helium at the same time. So it's like this is pretty important in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Helium, please don't ask me exactly why, but it has to do something with like its ability to go down to incredibly cold temperatures, which is helpful in all kinds of different ways. But there is not a lot of elasticity in helium supply. And so if there's going to be like one link where the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz might actually intersect with that, it would be if they truly run out of helium. And then you just really have a much harder time making chips. Now, I want to shift to interest rates for a bit. Japan's wholesale inflation accelerated in May at its fastest pace in three years. And its producer price index also surged to 6 percent was quite high That puts a lot of pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates And across Asia you are seeing countries raising their inflation projections and pushing interest rates higher What do you think would be the broader impact of prolonged inflation across Asia? And what does it mean for U.S. consumers? So the inflationary impact is there, right? And it's not even necessarily oil. It's also those petrochemicals which go into everything. And then the other thing in terms of inflation, governments and companies around the world are learning that it's important to build up stockpiles and it's important to build out your energy capacity or your petrochemical capacity or your chips capacity, things like that. If you have everyone all at once trying to do this, that consumes resources, right? That is de facto inflationary. And I think that's probably the lesson we have collectively learned from the past few years is that you don't want to be left high and dry if there's a big disruption. It is really important to have extra stuff. And extra stuff, you know, means higher prices.
[15:00] After the break, why we may not yet have seen the full extent of damage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and how the fallout from the war is reshaping Asia's relationship with the rest of the world. Whether you're planning a big tech event, launching a new campaign, or just stocking up on team gear, finding the right promotional products makes all the difference. 4imprint offers thousands of options, from on-trend apparel and premium drinkware to tech, totes, and giveaways, so you can find the right fit for any audience, purpose, or budget. You can customize it all, your logo, your message, your look, and many items come with no setup charge to help you save. And if you're really watching the bottom line, you'll find standout choices at every price point so you can make a real impact while staying on budget. Plus, you'll get expert help, fast turnaround times, and their 360-degree guarantee. So you can be 4imprint certain your order will arrive on time and look exactly right. Whatever your goal, 4imprint makes it easy to find your perfect promo match. Explore the possibilities today at 4imprint 4imprint 4certain Support for this show comes from public If you actively involved in your portfolio you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions Buying the dip. Manually sweeping idle cash. Putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500. or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., Member FINRA, and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. So there a lot of noise about AI but time too tight for more promises So let talk about results At IBM we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need Now, a global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. The supply shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is arguably the biggest ever. But by draining reserves, finding workarounds, and managing demand, governments have tried to shield their citizens from the pain, or delaying it, at least. Even if the Strait does open this weekend, Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway say that pain might still be coming. Richer countries will be able to spend to ease it, but poorer countries in Asia don't have those resources. And that could spell trouble for everyone. You guys spoke with a former farmer, Lorcan Kelly on one of your recent episodes The problem going to arise in six months and 12 months time when the decisions we made today about do I plant that field of wheat or do I breed more cattle for next year And farmers are going to say, no, we're not going to do that. You know, across Southeast Asia right now, farmers are now skipping this planting season. Yes. Right. Because they can't afford the diesel for the tractors. They can't afford the diesel for the water pumps, right, that they need to cultivate the crops. And some are actually choosing to leave crops rotting in the ground because they can't afford to harvest. I mean, that's huge, right? So this is what I was saying earlier, that perhaps one of the shoes that may be yet to drop is a food crisis in Asia. And it's perhaps the hierarchy of needs, right? If you're struggling to buy food, you're not going to be buying electronics, right, from China, whatever else. And so perhaps one part of the logic for China to reduce its imports is to ease a little bit of that squeeze. But what I've heard, which is that there is this brewing but not yet impacting food issue that will arise in Southeast Asia specifically. When it comes to the impact of fertilizer, we're talking about longer timeframes because there are planting seasons, as you just mentioned. One historical anecdote that I learned from Adam Tooze is that apparently in ancient
[20:00] Roman times, emperors would try to time wars so that they weren't during the planting season, so that it wouldn't disrupt food supplies and also so that farmers could actually go off and be soldiers. But clearly, we seem to have forgotten that lesson. I want to stay on food for a bit. You know, in Thailand, I was there in Bangkok just a couple weeks ago and talked to our colleagues there. I mean, they've done some really great reporting on how fishermen in Thailand are keeping their boats anchored because fuel eats up more than half of the cost of every trip. So, you know, they basically can't raise the price of their catch, right? So they're deciding not to go out. And I wonder, to what extent should policymakers and leaders worry about this, you know, turning into a political problem, right? This ag issue? Yeah, I mean, look, I don't know if I ever fully bought the theory. But, you know, there are many people who argued, for example, that the catalyst for the Arab Spring was wheat prices that year. And, you know, our leadership has other things on their mind. We're talking about this is very classic type of thing that creates real political disruption And I don think we should have the hubris to assume that these cycles which have probably have data points going back thousands of years have suddenly stopped And I guess with sanctions I mean I do wonder to what extent that the oil crunch would lead to the weakening of essentially one of the U biggest non weapons Right. Sanctions. There was an interesting article in The Wall Street Journal that the North Korean economy is doing surprisingly well. Well, they're actually building a lot of housing and they're sort of quite a little evidence of like improving standard of living and so forth. And of course, here is, you know, one of the most sanctioned countries on Earth for a very long time. I just think like the degree to which sanctions are a powerful tool or that they can really be used to like crush any enemy. All of it's being called into question right now. Now, let's say the war ends next week. How do you think the world has fundamentally been changed because of this war and how it's played out? So I think it goes back to, I guess, the idea of the choke point economy. So everyone has discovered from the past six years that these big one off supposedly one off disruptions can happen with frequency Right So each disruption is slightly different in what it actually is but they happening more often I mean I sure both of us having been in Hong Kong during the pandemic, I will always keep an extra supply of toilet paper from now until forever, basically. We all learn that. And so I think that impulse is going to stick around for a long time. The world is very globalized. I feel like for me coming here to Hong Kong, it's been a very helpful reminder like how integrated the world still is. But the wheels are all spinning in the opposite direction of where they were in the second half of the 20th century. Trade barriers are going up and countries don't trust each other and that is going to have consequences for both productivity and prices. This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wan Ha. To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all of Bloomberg subscribe today at Bloomberg slash podcast offer If you like the episode make sure to subscribe and review the Big Tech Asia wherever you listen to podcasts It really helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. See you next time. Whatever your goal, trade show giveaways, client gifts, or team gear, 4imprint has the promo products to match. With thousands of options, from apparel and drinkware to tech and totes, it's easy to find the right fit for your brand and budget, with standout choices at every price point. And with their 360-degree guarantee, you can be 4imprint certain your order will show up just right, right on time. Explore more at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. 4certain. When you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For midsize and large companies, risk can affect multiple parts of the organization at once, from property and liability to cyber and regulatory challenges. At that level, managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline. At the Hartford, the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive. And when losses do happen, that work is paired with insurance coverage shaped by years of underwriting, risk
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