Carson's Detrick Rejects AI Bubble Fears as Market Breadth Expands

Carson的Detrick驳斥AI泡沫担忧：市场广度持续扩大 随着企业科技资本支出的激增、小盘股的跑赢大盘，以及市场轮动向“七巨头”之外扩散并强化了广泛的经济健康度，当前牛市仍有进一步上行空间。 讨论小组成员认为当前牛市远未结束，他们将其与历史周期相类比，并强调真正的科技投机泡沫早在2022年就已破裂。他们详细阐述了庞大的硬件资本支出和定价权如何推动美光（Micron）等半导体领军企业实现前所未有的盈利，同时市场的领涨力量正健康地扩展至小盘股、工业股和区域银行。此外，该小组还探讨了股票净发行量转正的转变、格林斯潘时代后美联储沟通方式的演变、粘性通胀动态，以及在黄金和股票之间的战术性资产配置。 艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）长达18年的执政留下了深远的货币政策印记，他侧重资产价格并引入了“美联储看跌期权”（Fed Put），同时创下了第二长的主席任期及市场回报纪录。 (4:46) 当前牛市已持续约3.5年，是二战以来历时第8长的牛市，历史数据表明成熟牛市的持续时间通常比投资者预期的更长。 (12:53) 高增长和科技股市场的泡沫在2022年已经历了一轮大规模出清，当时Meta、Netflix和Nvidia等领军企业的跌幅在30%到75%以上不等。 (16:40) 美国科技设备和软件投资已扩大至接近GDP的5%，表明AI硬件热潮有着坚实的宏观资本配置基础。 (19:28) 美光（Micron）及半导体元器件供应商正受益于结构性供应瓶颈，带动盈利呈爆发式加速，并推动营收环比大幅激增。 (21:41)

Carson Group strategists Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, alongside co-hosts Josh Brown and Michael Batnick, argue that the current equity expansion is an enduring bull market rather than an artificial intelligence bubble facing imminent collapse. Underpinned by strong corporate earnings, expanding technological capital expenditures, and healthy market breadth across cyclicals and small caps, the cycle appears to have meaningful room to run. Bull Market Longevity and the 2022 Reset (12:53) Ryan Detrick notes that the bull market that began in October 2022 is approximately 3.5 years old, ranking as the eighth longest since World War II. For historical cycles reaching this benchmark, the average duration was roughly seven years, suggesting substantial runway remains. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown argue that observers often overlook that a severe speculative bubble already deflated in 2021–2022, when tech market leaders such as Meta, Netflix, and Nvidia dropped between 66% and 77%, and speculative vehicles like the ARK Innovation ETF plunged 80%. Detrick further observes that market internals currently display none of the defensive flight that presaged the 2022 decline. In late 2021, consumer staples and low-volatility sectors outperformed well before broader indexes fell. In contrast, the equal-weighted consumer staples ratio relative to the S&P 500 recently reached multi-month lows, indicating capital continues to seek growth and cyclical opportunities. Hardware Fundamentals and Tech Capex Expansion (21:41) The panel emphasizes that semiconductor strength is propelled by unprecedented pricing power and structural supply bottlenecks rather than pure speculation. Highlighting Micron Technology as a prime example, the hosts point to quarterly revenues reaching $41 billion to $41.5 billion, operating margins in the 84% to 85% range, and a trailing earnings per share progression surging from $9 to $132. Management has signaled that tight supply conditions for DRAM and NAND memory will persist beyond calendar year 2027. Sonu Varghese points out that investment in IT equipment and software has expanded from 3% to nearly 5% of U.S. GDP, a calculation that excludes the physical construction of data centers. While Bank of America surveys indicate that long positions in global semiconductors are the most crowded trade in the market, the strategists argue that high multiples are currently supported by matching upward revisions in forward earnings. Market Rotation into Small Caps and Cyclicals (25:05) Rather than a narrowing rally vulnerable to a single-sector shock, recent dynamics indicate healthy internal rotation away from mega-cap tech dominance. Over a 27-day trading span, the S&P 493 outperformed the Magnificent 7 by 18% while the broader S&P 500 continued trading near all-time highs. Leadership in the momentum factor has broadened to include legacy industrial names like Corning and Caterpillar alongside hardware firms, while the Russell 2000 has rallied roughly 20% year-to-date and the S&P 600 advance-decline line marked new record highs. This breadth expansion is prominently visible in regional and community banks breaking out to 52-week highs. Because regional lenders rely on middle-market credit, auto loans, and small business financing, the panel argues that strength across the financial sector contradicts macroeconomic recession narratives and reflects resilient consumer spending, which has grown at an annualized nominal rate of 8.5% over the past three months. Equity Supply Shifts, Sticky Inflation, and Policy (46:02) Corporate capital allocation is pivoting as net equity supply turns positive for the first time in 26 years outside the 2021 peak. Rather than dedicating cash reserves to share repurchases, mega-cap tech companies are redirecting funds into real-economy data center infrastructure, while private firms like SpaceX prepare substantial market listings. However, Batnick notes that IPO proceeds as a proportion of total S&P 500 market capitalization stand at just 0.18%—roughly one-tenth the level seen during the late-1990s tech bubble—mitigating dilution risks. On the policy front, Detrick and Varghese argue that the Federal Reserve is effectively allowing the economy to run hot by avoiding sharp rate hikes despite core services inflation excluding housing remaining sticky at 4% annualized over recent months. The primary macroeconomic tail risk remains supply-driven inflation that could force policymakers into aggressive, multi-meeting rate hikes into 2027, rather than the orderly rate adjustments currently anticipated. The panel concludes that while crowded semiconductor trades and emerging retail leverage products warrant careful risk management, strong balance sheets, high capex spending, and widening cyclical participation justify remaining overweight equities. The critical unresolved question is whether persistent hardware supply bottlenecks will trigger broader core consumer inflation, ultimately compelling central banks into an unexpectedly restrictive stance.

Carson Group 首席市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 与首席宏观策略师 Sonu Varghese 携手节目主持团队指出，当前美股牛市仍具备充足的上行动能，并非类似 1999 年或 2021 年的非理性泡沫。在实体科技资本支出扩张、稳健的宏观基本面以及从小盘股到区域银行的广泛市场轮动支撑下，投资者过早离场将面临巨大的踏空风险。 牛市历史周期与 2021 年估值出清对比 (12:53) 针对市场普遍担忧的 AI 泡沫论，Ryan Detrick 明确反驳称当前行情并非泡沫。从历史规律来看，自 2022 年 10 月触底启动的本轮牛市已持续约 3.5 年，成为二战后历时第 8 长的牛市；在二战后持续时间超越该节点的 7 次牛市中，平均总持续时间约为 7 年，最短的一次也延续了约 5 年。按照技术上牛市自 20% 熊市底部计算的标准，当前周期在时间维度上依然具备可观的延续空间。Michael Batnick 与 Josh Brown 补充强调，市场往往忽视了 2021 至 2022 年刚刚经历的一轮剧烈泡沫破裂，当时 Apple 回撤 30%，Alphabet 跌 44%，Amazon 跌 56%，Nvidia 跌 66%，Meta 跌 77%，ARKK 更是重挫 80%，大量投机性 SPAC 和亏损科技股此前已完成估值出清。 与 2021 年末大跌前的市场内部恶化相比，当前市场未显现任何防御性避险特征。Detrick 指出，在 2021 年第四季度美联储加息和地缘冲突爆发前数月，必需消费品与低波动板块便已开始大幅跑赢大盘；而在当前环境下，等权重必需消费品相对于标普 500 指数跌至多月低点，表明机构资金仍在主动拥抱成长板块，而非涌入防御性资产避险。 超越科技七巨头的健康市场广度与板块轮动 (25:05) 对谈团队指出，市场动能正在从高估值的科技巨头向更广泛的实体板块良性扩散。Michael Batnick 引用数据指出，自 2018 年以来的历史规律显示，当标普 493（剔除科技七巨头的成分股）跑赢七巨头时，大盘通常处于严重回撤之中；但在近期的 27 个交易日内，标普 493 跑赢七巨头的幅度达 18%（创 2018 年以来最大跑赢幅度），标普 500 指数却依然维持在历史新高附近。即便在指数因科技股回调下跌 1.4% 的个别交易日中，成分股内仍有 285 只个股收涨，这种大盘跌逾 1% 却多数股票上涨的异常抗跌情况在过去 20 年间仅发生过 5 次。 资金向中小型股票和实体经济敏感板块的轮动尤为明显。罗素 2000 指数年内涨幅逼近 20%，标普 600 腾落线与指数价格同步突破历史新高。动能因子领涨标的不再局限于芯片股，更涵盖了 Caterpillar 以及拥有 150 年历史的传统工业蓝筹 Corning。与此同时，区域银行与社区银行出现大级别突破，JPMorgan Chase 也创下历史新高。Josh Brown 强调，区域银行高度依赖普通个人与中小微企业信贷（如汽车贷款、房屋净值贷款及小企业信贷），其全面走强与 2006 至 2007 年金融危机前金融股领跌的崩盘先兆截然相反，直接证伪了宏观经济的衰退论调。 硬件资本支出狂潮、供应链瓶颈与成本传导 (21:41) 在科技产业层面，Sonu Varghese 强调当前信息技术设备与软件资本支出占美国 GDP 的比重已从数年前的约 3% 飙升至近 5%，不仅超过了 2000 年互联网泡沫的高峰，而且这一统计尚未涵盖数据中心的实体建筑开工规模。由于云厂商巨额资本支出的涌入，上游硬件及存储领域出现极端供需瓶颈与超强定价权。以 Micron 为例，其单季度营收达到 415 亿美元（环比增长 74%，同比增长 364%），营业支出仅约 20 亿美元，营业利润率高达 84% 至 85%，未来 12 个月盈利预期上修幅度高达 1,440%，管理层并明确指出 DRAM 和 NAND 存储紧缺格局将延续至 2027 年之后。 然而，过度集中的仓位与供应链瓶颈正在形成双向风险。根据美国银行全球基金经理调查，“做多全球半导体”已成为全球金融市场中最拥挤的交易策略。Varghese 警告称，核心 PCE 中的计算机软件与配件价格指数呈现抬升趋势，“上游厂商的利润率扩张必然演变为下游厂商的成本通胀”。例如 Apple 在发出零部件成本攀升及潜在硬件涨价预警后，单日股价即下挫 6%。此外，剔除住房的核心服务业通胀在 5 月录得 0.5%（年化 6%），表明供应链与服务业粘性通胀依旧制约着流动性宽松空间。 净股权供给拐点与非生息资产的流动性重配 (46:02) 资本市场供需结构迎来了 26 年未见的转折。美联储数据显示，除 2021 年 IPO 狂潮外，美股净股权供给在历经二十余年的股票回购缩减后首次转正。科技巨头正将闲置现金从二级市场回购中分流，大规模投向物理级 AI 数据中心建设，同时一级市场正迎来 SpaceX 融资 800 亿美元以及 SK Hynix 拟赴美筹资 290 亿至 300 亿美元等巨额股权供给。不过，Batnick 提示投资者应避免“分母盲区”：目前新股发行规模占标普 500 总市值的比例仅为 0.18%，仅为 1990 年代末疯狂期的十分之一。 资金重配机制同样重塑了大宗商品与加密资产表现。随着实际收益率上行与美联储降息预期落空，缺乏现金流支撑的资产遭遇调整。Carson Group 透露其战术配置模型已在黄金触及阶段高点附近进行了自 2023 年 3 月建仓以来的首次减持。与此同时，Bitcoin 的交易行为日益脱离其“数字黄金”或抗通胀叙事，转而与高贝塔软件行业 ETF（如 IGV）呈现高度相关，正在流动性与实际利率变动中被市场作为纯代码资产重新定价。 Carson Group 与主持团队总结认为，由实体资本开支和微观企业利润支撑的牛市周期仍具韧性，基于情绪恐慌盲目离场的风险远大于留在场内。真正的中长期尾部风险不在于偶发性的单次 25 个基点加息或局部的技术性整固，而在于若供应链通胀将核心服务业价格推高至 3% 且僵持到 2027 年，可能迫使美联储在后期采取连续 50 至 75 个基点的急刹车式滞后加息，进而打破宏观平衡。

## Background 本期视频由知名财经频道 The Compound 于 2026 年 7 月 13 日在 YouTube 平台发布。节目由主持人 Michael Batnick 和 Downtown Josh Brown 共同主持，并邀请了来自 Carson Group 的投资双雄 Ryan Detrick 与 Sonu Varghese 担任嘉宾。根据节目简介，本期内容深入探讨了美联储动向、通胀预期、市场板块轮动、美光科技与半导体产业链需求、小盘股突破、格林斯潘的历史遗产，以及为什么当前牛市可能比大多数投资者预期的走得更远。 ## TL;DR 嘉宾们明确反驳了当前市场处于“全面 AI 泡沫”的悲观论调，指出 2022 年的深度回调已完成了去杠杆出清，目前行情由占 GDP 近 5% 的真实科技资本开支与强劲企业盈利所驱动。尽管半导体交易高度拥挤、股票净供给呈现增加趋势，但市场广度持续改善，资金正从科技七巨头（Mag 7）有序轮动至工业、金融与小盘股板块。结合平稳的信贷利差与区域性银行的向上突破，分析师认为只要美联储不出现追赶式激进加息，美国经济将保持韧性，这艘牛市“豪华巨轮”依然具备充足的续航动能。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场节目充斥着纽约金融圈特有的机智幽默与快节奏交锋，在世界杯闲聊、脱衣舞俱乐部假照片调侃与硬核图表推演之间无缝切换。四位市场老手互动默契、彼此熟稔，既有掌管 600 亿美元机构视角的审慎沉稳，又有对散户恐慌心理与媒体末日论调的犀利讽刺。听感兼具电台脱口秀的轻松惬意与顶级宏观策略会的高信息密度，情绪饱满而充满底气，散发出一种历经多空洗礼后的理性乐观氛围。 ## Bulletin - [12:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=773s) 本轮美股牛市自2022年10月起历时约3.5年，为二战后第8长牛市，对比历史前七大牛市平均持续约7年的规律，当前市场仍具充足上行动能。 - [25:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1512s) 市场广度出现历史级积极信号，过去27个交易日中，标普493只成分股相对科技七巨头（Mag 7）超额收益达18%，创2018年以来最大剪刀差，大盘在巨头调整中逆势冲高。 - [39:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2380s) 美国信息技术设备与软件开支占GDP比重已攀升至近5%，正式超越2000年科技泡沫峰值，且该统计尚未计入全美激增的数据中心实体建设投资。 - [46:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2780s) 股票净供给迎来历史性反转：四大科技巨头回购显著收缩，叠加Alphabet、SK海力士及未上市独角兽的天量股权发行，正改变过往由回购驱动的估值扩张机制。 ## Key takeaways - [04:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=286s) 艾伦·格林斯潘的制度遗产确立了现代“美联储看跌期权”（Fed Put），让央行政策重心深度绑定资产价格与金融市场稳定。 - [09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=561s) 美联储决议声明大幅精简至约130词，旨在减少过度沟通的政策噪音并为高频数据应对保留充足灵活性。 - [17:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1075s) 所谓AI泡沫破裂的担忧忽视了2022年熊市的剧烈出清，当时核心科技巨头与高估值资产已完成史诗级回撤与去泡沫。 - [19:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1168s) 当前市场缺少牛市见顶时的极端防御特征，等权重的必需消费品相对标普500指数比率创多年新低，资金未现抱团避险迹象。 - [21:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1301s) 美光科技营收与利润率爆发主要受供需瓶颈与平均售价（ASP）飙升驱动，管理层指引短缺格局将延续至2027年以后。 - [27:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1643s) 动量因子（Momentum）目前处于历史极端高位，但不同于以往概念炒作，本轮行情由美光、卡特彼勒等蓝筹与半导体巨头的超额盈利真实支撑。 - [28:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1738s) 半导体成为有史以来最拥挤的交易头寸，且工业、公用事业等传统板块因算力与电力需求呈现出高度“泛科技化”绑定。 - [30:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1823s) 市场结构呈现罕见良性轮动，在标普指数单日下跌1.4%的情况下仍有近300只个股逆势收涨，资金正向中小盘与价值股扩散。 - [35:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2155s) 散户与高净值客户整体情绪依然充斥看空怀疑与通胀担忧，场外FOMO情绪仅聚焦于未上市明星独角兽（如SpaceX），缺乏全面亢奋见顶信号。 - [37:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2260s) 实际收益率（Real Yields）攀升与美联储偏鹰立场引发贵金属去杠杆下挫，战术投资者转向减持黄金并规避长久期债券敞口。 - [42:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2550s) 新兴市场盈利预期上修幅度超越美国本土，其核心推手并非大宗商品，而是台积电、SK海力士等东亚硬件半导体供应链的映射狂欢。 - [53:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3180s) 科技上游的利润率扩张正在演变为终端硬件厂商的成本通胀，苹果等消费电子巨头股价承压体现了产业链利润重新分配。 - [54:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3246s) 美股中小盘腾落线创历史新高且企业债信贷利差高度平稳，从市场宽度与信用指标看大盘尚无系统性见顶风险。 - [55:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3326s) 美联储大概率默认经济“过热运行”而不急于加息，本轮牛市的最大中远期尾部风险在于2027年前后若通胀难控引发的追赶式暴力加息。 - [58:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3488s) 区域性银行与社区银行板块强劲突破，反映出美国家庭与中小企业信贷底层偿付能力稳健，有力反驳了宏观硬着陆假说。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=0s) 闲聊开场：世界杯狂想与夜游纽约 节目在轻松的闲聊中开场。Michael Batnick 和大家聊起正在进行的世界杯赛况，好奇哪些队伍已经出局、谁又能走到最后。Sonu Varghese 介绍目前已有五六支球队被淘汰，剩下的 32 强还在继续角逐。当聊到最终决战的举办地点时，大家提到决赛将在新泽西的 MetLife 体育场举行，Josh Brown 开玩笑说要是赶上这种大场面交通瘫痪的“暴雨换胎天”，他绝对第一时间逃离纽约。 几人还爆料了前一晚在纽约的趣事：大家一起吃了晚餐、逛了纽约，回酒店后 Ryan Detrick 声称自己在房间准备节目录制材料，Josh 却调侃他是不是偷偷跑去了脱衣舞俱乐部。Ryan 笑着反驳那绝对是 AI 生成的假照片，并透露自己昨晚其实老老实实在房间里看足球纪录片看到半夜，被 Josh 称赞为“有文化、有品位的人”。聊到世界杯在美举办的历史，几人回顾起 1994 年美国世界杯，甚至讨论起芝加哥当年承办揭幕战而这次却没能入选的申办机制。眼看话题快要完全偏离投资，Michael 赶紧打住，笑称要是再聊足球，节目仅剩的八个铁杆粉丝都要跑光了。 ### [02:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=141s) 赞助支持：Nuveen 私募市场平台 传统金融市场在通胀、利率攀升及宏观经济不确定性的多重压力下步履维艰，越来越多的投资者正转向私募市场寻求新的收益来源与组合稳健性。本期节目由 Nuveen 赞助播出。Nuveen 凭借其深厚的私募市场经验与创新解决方案，全面布局房地产、私募信贷、基础设施和自然资本领域，帮助投资者抵御市场波动、管控风险并捕捉持久的增长机会。其综合平台提供覆盖多种风险偏好的策略方案，旨在增强传统资产配置并为全天候市场环境提供长期护航。 ### [03:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=193s) 嘉宾重磅登场：Carson Group 投资双雄回归 广告结束后，Josh Brown 隆重介绍了本期的重磅嘉宾——来自 Carson Group 的市场专家组。作为管理着超过 600 亿美元资产的咨询机构，Carson Group 的两位核心智囊再度做客节目：一位是首席市场策略师 Ryan Detrick，他不仅是广受欢迎的播客节目《Facts vs. Feelings》联合主持人，还曾在 Schaeffer's Investment Research 深耕十余年，并在 LPL Financial 担任过 6 年核心职务；另一位则是首席宏观策略师 Sonu Varghese，他在资产管理行业拥有 20 年的丰富资历，此前曾任 Convex Capital Management 合伙人兼研究主管，主导投资组合管理、客户顾问和投研团队。 Ryan 笑着打趣自己已经是第三次上《The Compound and Friends》的“惯犯”了，并深情回忆起 2024 年 2 月在地下室和 JC 举办生日派对的热闹场面。Josh 调侃他嗓音充满电台主播的磁性，现场气氛随即升温，联合主持 Michael Batnick 也正式切入本期的市场重头戏。 ### [04:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=286s) 格林斯潘的遗产：从“美联储看跌期权”到资产价格崇拜 本周美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）离世，引发了全场关于这位美联储掌舵人功过是非的热烈剖析。Josh 直言自己从不认同“逝者为大、不能批评”的俗套，鼓励大家畅所欲言。Ryan 指出格林斯潘留下的遗产极其复杂：在 90 年代克林顿繁荣期，市场高歌猛进，格林斯潘被奉为神明；但他随后戳破科技泡沫后将利率维持在过低水平，许多批评者认为这直接为 2008 年次贷危机埋下了祸根。回顾历史数据，格林斯潘执掌美联储长达 18 年，任期内标普 500 指数累计大涨 290%，年化收益率约为 7.5%，是美联储历史上任期第二长、任内股市回报第二高的主席。对此 Josh 笑着吐槽：“等等，他又不是共同基金经理，这可算不上他的 Alpha！” Josh 进一步剖析了格林斯潘对现代中央银行体制的深远改变。抛开对银行监管不力的问题不谈，格林斯潘最大的烙印在于**将美联储的关注焦点彻底引向了资产价格**。如今许多后继者（包括现任美联储官员）在减少政策前瞻沟通、敬畏市场机制方面，都在某种程度上深受格林斯潘的影响。 Sonu 则打破了关于格林斯潘“从不明确表态”的迷思。他指出格林斯潘当年发表了海量演讲来阐明自己的经济世界观： - **1994 年恐慌式加息**：格林斯潘误判通胀风险而激进加息，甚至间接引爆了加州橙县破产危机。 - **1995-1996 年耐心观察**：他敏锐意识到技术进步带来了生产率繁荣，允许生产率增长自然平抑通胀，按兵不动。 - **1999 年防微杜渐**：在 1999 年 5 月的演讲中，尽管经济增长极佳，他警示劳动力市场过热引发通胀，随后在 10 个月内闪电加息 150 至 175 个基点。 Josh 与 Sonu 强调，格林斯潘最重要的制度遗产莫过于创造了**“美联储看跌期权”（Greenspan Put / Fed Put）**。其真正源头正是 1987 年“黑色星期一”股灾：那是现代历史上美联储主席第一次明确为了防止股市震荡外溢至实体经济而果断干预市场。这一举措最终大获全胜，不仅成功阻断了 1987 年的系统性风险，还让美国经济一路平稳繁荣，直到 1991 年才因其他无关因素陷入轻度衰退。 ### [09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=561s) 美联储透明度之争：是更多沟通还是留足灵活性？ 在讨论美联储的沟通风格时，大家回溯了从艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）时期延续至今的市场心理机制。当市场开始相信“美联储不会坐视不管，因为他们时刻关注着市场”时，格林斯潘对冲（Greenspan Put）的雏形便诞生了，并在现代金融市场中被推向极致。Ryan Detrick 引用了格林斯潘极具代表性的名言：“如果我显得特别清楚明白，那很可能是你误解了我的意思（If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said）。”以往美联储主席滔滔不绝地阐述宏观见解，台下听众频频点头称是；而最近的美联储决议声明仅有大约 130 个词，删繁就简，除了疫情期间突发降息外，这种极度精炼的文本罕见程度堪比格林斯潘早期。 这种风格的转变引发了内部与业界的激烈争鸣。首席策略师 Callie Cox 撰文指出，在美联储主席更迭背景下，“减少透明度绝非好事”，因为沟通不透明会加剧市场不确定性与波动率。对此，Josh Brown 坦言虽然理解 Callie 的逻辑，但他认为无论透明度高低，由于决策层频繁变更预判，市场波动都不可避免。Sonu Varghese 补充指出，现在的美联储与格林斯潘一人独大的时代不同，FOMC 拥有 19 位参会者和 12 位投票委员；格林斯潘虽然语意含混，但他极度热衷于详尽探讨经济机制。Josh 则分析，美联储若想减少解释，核心诉求在于保留针对高频、实时数据（Higher frequency data）做出反应的灵活性，同时避免所有动作被提前剧透；金融危机之后美联储变得“过于爱解释（too explainy）”，不仅有冗长的新闻发布会，12 名委员还在两次会议间隙频繁发表自相矛盾的演讲，减少这种噪音并非坏事。 - 决议声明篇幅锐减至仅约 130 词，回到高度精炼的行文模式。 - Callie Cox 认为低透明度带来更多不确定性与市场震荡；Josh 则主张政策制定者无需提前剧透每一步棋，以保留灵活性。 - 委员会架构由 19 位参会者构成，其中约 12 位拥有投票权，频繁公开表态容易造成互相矛盾的政策噪音。 --- ### [12:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=773s) 当下是 AI 泡沫吗？从牛市历史寿命看本轮行情 Michael Batnick 抛出了近期与 Derek Thompson 录制播客时探讨的核心议题：“当前市场究竟是不是一场泡沫？”Ryan Detrick 给出了非常明确的否定回答。尽管市场上存在部分估值偏高的领域，但他坚信这轮牛市仍有持久的动能。他回忆道，2024 年 2 月作客节目时提出的看多观点引来大量油管评论的嘲弄，但标普指数自此大幅上涨 47%；到了 7 月继续倡导“保持超配（Stay overweight）”，市场再度上涨 17%。 Ryan 从技术面与历史量化数据剖析指出，若从上一个熊市低点（2022 年 10 月）起算，当前这轮牛市历时约三年半，刚刚跻身二战以来历史第八长牛市。然而，排在前七位的牛市平均持续约七年，即便其中最短的也维持了五年左右。他把牛市的动力比作一艘巨大的“豪华邮轮（Cruise ship）”——它们极难停下，也极其难以掉头；一旦平稳驶过前三年，往往会沿着既有航道持续前行很久。全球范围来看，欧洲股市大约在 15 个月前才刚突破 2007 年的历史高位，全球范围的扩张才刚刚起步，断言牛市终结为时尚早。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 二战后美股牛市平均历程与当前位置对比 accDescr: 对比历史上前七大牛市的平均长度与本轮牛市目前的持续时间 subgraph HistoricalContext["二战以来前七大牛市"] AvgDuration["历史平均持续时长<br/>约 7 年"] MinDuration["历史最短牛市时长<br/>约 5 年"] end subgraph CurrentBull["本轮牛市现状（始于 2022年10月）"] CurrentAge["历时约 3.5 年<br/>二战后第 8 长牛市"] Inertia["具备邮轮惯性<br/>跨过第 3 年往往持续性强"] end CurrentBull -.->|"历史下限参照"| MinDuration CurrentBull -.->|"历史均值参照"| AvgDuration ``` - 牛市定义：采用技术上跌幅达 20% 作为分水岭的量化标准。 - 本轮牛市从 2022 年 10 月底部算起，目前持续约 3.5 年。 - 二战后前七大牛市平均持续 7 年，最短的一轮持续了 5 年。 - 欧洲主要股指在约 15 个月前才打破 2007 年的高点阻力，显示全球多头格局仍在延展。 --- ### [15:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=948s) 泡沫文化、真金白银的管理与 2021 年真实惨痛记忆 在探讨市场多空气氛时，Ryan 提到了 Carson Group 的资产管理规模刚刚突破 600 亿美元大关。管理如此庞大体量的真金白银极其不易，必须拥有独立的认知框架并敢于坚持观点。Ryan 经常因在社交平台上持续看多而遭受抨击，但早在 2023 年市场普遍预期衰退时，Sonu 坚定预测美国不会陷入衰退，市场随后也走出了长期上涨。大众情绪目前并没有表现出牛市顶峰该有的狂欢与狂热，反而如同《纽约客》（The New Yorker）封面上那个鼻青脸肿、宿醉未醒的乔治·华盛顿，带着一种“红、白，略带点忧郁蓝”的疲惫感。 在欢快的互动中，Ryan 还拿出了专门从背包里翻出的礼物——印有其播客《Facts vs Feelings》和 Carson 标识的周边，惹得 Josh 和 Michael 阵阵调侃。紧接着，Josh 将话题拉回泡沫的实质：“我们生活在一个‘泡沫文化’中，每个人都恨不得在所有地方寻找泡沫。”尽管市场某些角落确实弥漫着泡沫的气味，但人们似乎健忘了真正的泡沫破裂是怎样的。Michael 提醒大家关注 2021 年那场刚刚过去的惨烈洗礼：在那场剧烈的去估值周期中，即便是最顶尖的核心科技巨头也遭遇了史诗级回撤——苹果跌了 30%，Google 跌了 44%，亚马逊重挫 56%，英伟达更是经历了深度崩跌。 - Carson Group 资产管理规模（AUM）刚刚突破 600 亿美元。 - 市场当下缺乏极端亢奋（Euphoria）的顶部特征，情绪面反而呈现疲惫与谨慎。 - 2021 年泡沫破裂的真实回撤对比：苹果下跌 30%、Alphabet（Google）下跌 44%、亚马逊下跌 56%、英伟达亦录得巨额跌幅。 ### [17:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1075s) 上一轮泡沫早已破裂：被遗忘的 2022 年与“停止担忧并爱上泡沫” 节目开场延续了对市场估值与泡沫的讨论。嘉宾们指出，许多投资者总是习惯性地将当下的市场与 2000 年互联网泡沫或 2008-2009 年的全球金融危机相锚定，却完全忽视了就在不久前才刚刚完整上演过的一轮繁荣破裂周期。在 2022 年的熊市中，科技股遭遇了毁灭性打击：Netflix 从高点暴跌约 75%，Meta 暴跌 77%，而作为当年牛市代言人的 ARK 创新基金更是下挫 80%，至今仍深陷巨大的回撤之中。那次崩盘不仅彻底粉碎了大量估值离谱的破发 IPO 和投机性资产类别，还伴随着惨痛的资产去杠杆。然而，现在的市场参与者却仿佛患了集体失忆症，假装那场全方位的泡沫破裂从未发生过。 其间穿插着演播室现场的插科打诨：乔什·布朗（Josh Brown）调侃让导播妮可把靠枕拿到他的劳斯莱斯车里，迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）则开玩笑问是放乔什的车还是自己的车，并提到包里还带了八个靠枕分给团队。笑闹之余，巴特尼克提到了自己前一天撰写的一篇带着戏谑风格的文章，标题借用了电影《奇爱博士》的经典梗——《我如何学会停止担忧并爱上泡沫》（How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bubble）。他强调，美股当前取得的涨幅并不离奇，因为市场刚刚在 2022 年完成了一轮剧烈的由繁荣到萧条的去泡沫过程，资产价格重新出发是合乎周期的。 - 2022 年熊市重创科技龙头与投机资产：Netflix 跌幅达 75%，Meta 跌幅达 77%，ARK 基金跌幅达 80% 且仍未走出巨额回撤。 - 市场普遍对 2009 年的低点存在路径依赖，忽视了过去十多年来科技股剧烈波动的自我出清与周期迭代。 --- ### [19:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1168s) 宏观与技术面分水岭：必需消费品异动与近 5% 的 GDP 科技资本开支 针对当前行情能否持续以及看空指标何时触发的问题，瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）从技术面与历史形态展开了对比。在 2021 年市场见顶前夕，散户依靠政府救济金疯狂日交易，投机狂潮弥漫；但在 2021 年第四季度，尽管多数人沉浸在赚钱狂欢中，水面下的技术指标却已拉响警报——当时必需消费品（Consumer Staples）板块大幅飙升，低波动率因子主导市场，甚至早于美联储开启加息周期以及俄乌冲突爆发。市场早在美联储行动前，就已经嗅到了通胀压力与紧缩周期的到来。反观当下，等权重的必需消费品相对标普 500 指数的比率刚刚触及多年以来的历史极低水平，完全没有出现任何资金回流防御性板块的迹象。 索努·瓦尔盖塞（Sonu Varghese）随后从宏观经济的基本面逻辑切入，指出当前的科技繁荣与 2021 年纯粹的流动性狂热有着本质区别。当前存在着实打实的实体经济宏观驱动力：从美国 GDP 的底层数据来看，信息技术设备与软件相关的资本开支目前已经占到美国整体 GDP 的近 5%。而在几年前，这一比例仅有约 3% 左右。对于一个原本在经济总量中占比较小的细分领域而言，这种跃升代表着巨额且不可逆转的真实资本流入，为科技盈利提供了强劲的宏观实体支撑。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 2021年见顶前兆与当前市场结构对比 accDescr: 对比2021年四季度防御性板块反弹信号与当前宏观资本开支驱动下的不同市场表现 subgraph Prev["2021年四季度见顶预警"] A["投机狂热日交易"] --> B["必需消费品大幅领跑"] B --> C["低波动率因子主导市场"] C --> D["领先美联储加息拉响警报"] end subgraph Curr["当前市场驱动结构"] E["等权重消费品相对标普创新低"] --> F["防御板块未见抱团"] G["IT设备与软件占GDP近5%"] --> H["实体宏观资本开支支撑行情"] end ``` --- ### [21:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1301s) 美光财报引爆 AI 争论：供应链瓶颈、暴涨的 ASP 与格林斯潘的启示 话题随后聚焦在刚刚公布财报的美光科技（Micron）身上，并引发了关于 AI 交易是否存在泡沫的深层思辨。美光披露的单季度利润甚至超过了一年前英伟达整家公司的水平，市值亦急剧攀升。空头理论认为，科技巨头之间的 AI 合作日益呈现出“循环交易”的特征（例如亚马逊与 OpenAI 的结盟），十余家科技巨头将几乎所有的自由现金流甚至大部分营收，全数倾泻到两三家远东关键供应链手中——台湾的台积电，以及美光与韩国的海力士/三星。空头进而质疑，美光的营收暴增（最新单季营收达 415 亿美元，环比增长 74%，同比增长 364%）主要是依托卡脖子垄断地位大幅提价（平均售价 ASP 暴涨超过 60%），而非产能数量的飞跃，这种不可持续的价格通胀终将被技术规避。 然而多头则认为这完全是盈利驱动的健康增长。自 2025 年 1 月以来，美光的 12 个月远期盈利预测上调了 1440%，而股价仅上涨了 1300%，估值扩张甚至落后于盈利爆发。美光管理层更明确表态：“预计 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存的供需紧张格局将延续至 2027 年之后。” 德特里克借此回顾了历史：1996 年 12 月 5 日，时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）在著名的演讲中提出了“非理性繁荣”（据称这个词是他泡澡时想出来的），但在此后的三年里，标普 500 指数翻倍涨幅超过 100%，纳斯达克指数更是暴涨超过 300%。哪怕当时市场确实昂贵，但轻言泡沫破裂只会错失主升浪。正因如此，卡森集团（Carson Group）将年度与年中展望始终定调为“顺应浪潮”（Riding the Wave），继续小幅超配科技股。 - 美光最新单季营收达到 415 亿美元，环比大幅增长 74%，同比激增 364%。 - 自 2025 年 1 月初至讨论时，美光未来 12 个月远期盈利预期增长 1440%，同期股价涨幅为 1300%。 - 美光官方指引明确表示，DRAM 与 NAND 存储芯片的供需短缺状态将持续贯穿至 2027 年之后。 - 1996 年格林斯潘提示“非理性繁荣”后，标普 500 指数在随后 3 年内上涨超 100%，纳斯达克涨幅超 300%。 --- ### [25:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1512s) 史上最强市场轮动：Mag 7 熄火却迎牛市新高，动量因子逼近极限 巴特尼克在反驳泡沫论时指出，市场瞬息万变且投资者的记忆极其短暂：一年前市场上一度存在人手必备的共识标的（如曾被热炒的 Palantir），结果随后在 9 个月内大跌超 50%、缩水 100 多点。真正支撑当前大盘不断创出新高的，是市场内部强劲而健康的板块轮动——当某一板块热度退潮时，另一批行业迅速补位。例如软件股表现疲软时，金融板块全线爆发，大量成分股冲上 52 周新高。 随后巴特尼克向全场展示了图表 19.2，揭示了一个极其罕见的看涨信号：自 2018 年以来，每当标普其余 493 只成分股跑赢科技七巨头（Mag 7）时，美股大盘无一例外都处于深度熊市回撤之中；然而在过去的 27 天里，标普 493 成分股相对 Mag 7 的超额收益高达 18%，创下 2018 年以来的最大剪刀差，而大盘整体却正处于历史最高位。微软的走势已经形同“死寂”，其相对 SPY（标普 500 ETF）的相对强弱竟已回吐过去整整 7 年的所有超额收益，重新跌回 2019 年的位置。在七巨头惨遭痛击的同时，工业板块狂飙、区域性银行暴涨，推动大盘稳健上行，巴特尼克直言“无法想象还有比这更强烈的看涨信号”。瓦尔盖塞补充道，市场动量因子（Momentum）依旧极其强劲（美光已占据标普 500 动量指数 12% 的权重），但动量因子相对于大盘过去 12 个月的超额表现在过去 40 年的历史中已达第 95 百分位，过去 3 年更是处于第 100 百分位的极端拉伸状态。 - 过去 27 个交易日中，标普 493 只成分股跑赢科技七巨头达 18%，创 2018 年以来的最大领先利差。 - 微软相对 SPY 标普 500 指数的相对表现已回撤至 2019 年基准线，尽数抹去过去 7 年的超额领先优势。 - 标普 500 动量因子过去 12 个月跑赢大盘的超额表现，处于过去 40 年历史区间的第 95 百分位，在近 3 年历史中处于第 100 百分位极值；美光占该动量指数的权重已达 12%。 ### [27:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1643s) 动量因子的极度拉伸与基本面支撑 嘉宾们深入探讨了当前市场中“动量因子”（Momentum）被极度拉伸的现象。以往当动量指标处于极度高位时，往往缺乏真实的盈利质量支撑，大多是由投机和泡沫驱动；然而眼下的情况却完全不同——以 Micron（美光科技）等半导体巨头为代表的企业，其季度利润从过去的微薄水平爆发式增长到惊人体量，为价格的飙升提供了实实在在的盈利支撑。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 动量因子内涵变迁 accDescr: 对比传统对动量投资的偏见与当前高质量蓝筹股支撑的动量行情 subgraph 传统刻板印象 A["传统动量刻板印象"] --> B["低质量投机标的<br/>GameStop / 概念炒作"] A --> C["高风险生物科技仙股"] end subgraph 现实市场格局 D["当前动量核心资产"] --> E["百年蓝筹制造巨头<br/>康宁 (Corning) / 卡特彼勒 (Caterpillar)"] D --> F["业绩爆发式增长半导体<br/>Micron / SK 海力士"] end ``` Josh 指出，大众一听到“动量”这个词，往往会带有极其负面的偏见，觉得这无非是一帮不讲基本面的韭菜盲目追涨垃圾股，联想到的是类似 GameStop 的散户投机，或是山姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）投资的核反应堆概念公司。但如果仔细观察当前动量指数成分股，会发现领跑的竟然是具有 150 年历史的康宁（Corning）以及百年的道琼斯蓝筹巨头卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）。动量不再局限于小盘股或偏门生物科技，而是扩散至万亿级市值的核心资产。 - **动量与基本面验证**：不同于以往空转的概念炒作，当下动量交易由前所未见的业绩狂飙所支撑。 - **蓝筹化特征**：传统工业巨头如卡特彼勒、康宁不仅入列顶级动量股，走势甚至比多数科技股更为凶悍。 - **大盘股的弹性**：以往小盘股几周翻倍屡见不鲜，但如今像美光、闪迪（SanDisk）以及 SK 海力士这类大型硬件半导体巨头也出现了惊人的涨幅。 --- ### [28:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1738s) 半导体估值裂变与拥挤交易警告 讨论随后转向沃伦·派斯（Warren Pies）提供的两张图表，给狂热的市场浇下一盆冷水。派斯指出，历史上半导体一直被归类为高波动的周期性行业，通常其利润率触顶时，市销率（P/S）反而会见顶回落。然而在过去一年里，半导体的毛利率创出历史新高，其估值倍数不仅没有回落，反而迎来了暴击式的倍增。这意味着市场正在押注半导体行业已彻底摆脱周期性；如果并非如此，那就是纯粹的非理性亢奋。 结合美银美林（Bank of America）最新的全球基金经理调查（FMS），“做多全球半导体”已经成为有史以来最拥挤的交易，其极度拥挤程度甚至超过了 2020 年的美国成长股行情。此外，跨行业的相关性研究显示，当下的科技交易已经渗透到全市场——工业板块中超过 40% 到 50% 的成分股与科技股高度相关，公用事业板块亦然，整个市场几乎被单一的 AI/科技主题绑定。反观医疗保健等板块，与科技的相关性为零，并在近期显现出极佳的独立走势。 - **半导体估值逻辑生变**：估值扩张打破了原有的逆周期定价模型，市场正将其作为长期成长股而非强周期股进行重估。 - **最拥挤头寸**：机构持仓高度集中于半导体板块，其一致性预期达到历史极端值。 - **板块“泛科技化”**：传统防御性的公用事业与偏周期的工业板块，因 AI 数据中心用电与硬件建设需求，已高度科技化；唯有医疗保健板块保持独立性。 --- ### [30:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1823s) 市场广度背离下的良性轮动 面对如此拥挤的头寸，Ryan Detrick 引用巴顿将军名言“如果人人都想法一致，那就有人根本没在思考”（If everybody's thinking alike, somebody isn't thinking），表达了对情绪指标的重视。然而，指数层面的回撤背后却蕴藏着健康的板块轮动（Rotation）。 Ryan 列举了近几个交易日的盘面异常：在周二标普 500 指数下跌 1.4% 的情况下，指数内竟有 285 只个股逆势收涨。过去 20 年间，标普跌逾 1% 但上涨家数多于下跌家数的情形仅发生过 5 次。随后几天，标普指数维持微幅震荡，但上涨股票数量持续维持在 300 家以上。这种“科技权重股调整、其他广泛股票补涨”的结构，印证了市场正向工业、金融和周期性板块进行健康的杠铃式配置（Barbell trade），广度指标显著向好。 | 交易日特征 | 标普 500 表现 | 上涨成分股家数 | 盘面特征 | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **周二** | 下跌 1.4% | 285 只上涨 | 罕见背离（20年仅5次），科技巨头领跌而中底盘个股大面积走强 | | **周三** | 微幅震荡/微跌 | 315 只上涨 | 市场广度维持高位，资金持续流入非科技板块 | | **周四** | 小幅走弱 | 上涨家数占优 | 资金轮动延续，整体健康度并未因权重大盘股回调而受损 | --- ### [32:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1921s) 杠杆产品狂欢与 AI 动能板块分化 市场的狂热情绪在衍生品创新上体现得淋漓尽致。Roundhill 推出的 DRAM ETF 斩获巨大成功，资产规模突破 200 亿美元，随后顺势推出了 2 倍做多的杠杆版 RAM ETF。而在最新动向中，该 2 倍杠杆 ETF 竟然开放了场内期权交易。Josh 调侃道：“既然我都可以在 2 倍杠杆半导体 ETF 上买看涨期权（Calls on 2X ETF）了，我还坐在这听你们聊什么？” 这引发了对于“局部筑顶”（Local Top）与行情轮动的猜测。如果这种轮动持续半年，科技板块横盘休整，而医疗保健、金融甚至通信服务板块接力走牛，是否意味着由动量主导的 AI 交易阶段性告一段落？事实上，AI 龙头的走势早已发生严重分化：英伟达（NVIDIA）和 Alphabet 的涨幅开始钝化横盘，而动量指数的前列已被美光、泛林集团（Lam Research）、AMD 以及科磊（KLA）等半导体设备与上游供应商占据。 - **极端投机工具面世**：2 倍杠杆存储芯片 ETF 的看涨期权上线，表明二级市场的情绪热度正处于阶段性峰值。 - **超大规模云服务商（Hyperscalers）降温**：早期领涨的核心巨头已休整近半年，资金此前由云端巨头下沉至半导体设备及材料股。 - **动量内部换仓**：动量策略正在快速分化，不再等同于单纯持有一篮子巨型科技股。 --- ### [33:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2038s) 小盘股异动与 Carson Group 的客户现状 当大型科技股开始喘息，资金下一步会流向何处？答案直指小盘股。罗素 2000 指数年内涨幅已逼近 20%，标普 600 小盘股指数更是在近期刷新了历史新高。 作为技术分析专家，Ryan 强调“市场广度领先于价格”（Breadth leads price）。从相对表现来看，IWM（罗素 2000 ETF）对标 SPY（标普 500 ETF）的相对强弱曲线正在完成关键突破；标普 600 的腾落线（Advance-Decline line）与指数价格同步创下历史新高。这背后是小盘股核心权重——社区银行、区域性银行的大幅反弹以及生物科技板块的爆发式上攻。小盘股更具本土内生属性，其全面转强往往预示着更宽广的牛市基础。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 小盘股突破核心逻辑 accDescr: 资金从大型科技股外溢到小盘股的具体驱动因素分析 A["大盘 AI 科技股高位盘整"] --> B["资金寻找估值洼地"] B --> C["小盘股市场广度爆发"] subgraph 小盘股核心催化 C --> D["社区及区域性银行走强"] C --> E["生物科技板块暴力反弹"] end D & E --> F["标普600与腾落线共创历史新高"] ``` 在对话尾声，话题转向财富管理一线。Carson Group 旗下拥有超过 600 名独立理财顾问（Financial Advisers），业务覆盖全美约 44 个州。Ryan 和 Sonu 每周一早间都会与约 150 名顾问召开市场策略研讨会，为终端客户提供最新仓位指导。尽管市场局部出现过热与轮动信号，但面对底层经济与广度指标的韧性，他们依然建议保持对股票资产与动量因子的超配（Overweight），而广大顾问所服务的客户当下投资组合表现也相当稳健。 ### [35:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2155s) 客户的真实疑问：没人庆祝牛市，大家都在问 SpaceX 和美元崩溃 Michael Batnick 询问 Carson Group 的 Ryan Detrick 和 Sonu Varghese，最近顾问转达的客户提问都是些什么方向，是否有人对市场涨了这么多感到紧张。Ryan 笑着透露，上周最火爆的问题竟然是：“我们怎么才能投进 SpaceX？”大家打趣道，随着未来 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 等超级独角兽排队上市，这种场外 FOMO 情绪只会更甚。然而抛开对未上市巨头的渴望，普通投资者整体的情绪依然充斥着浓重的怀疑与看空，根本没有人来问“行情这么好，我们该买多少”。 Ryan Detrick 引用了 Liz Ann Sonders 常表达的观点并感慨道，过去两年来自己在全美各地出差，给无数顾问和高净值客户做演讲。45分钟的展示结束后，15分钟的提问环节里从来没有一个人会欢欣鼓舞地问：“现在市场真棒，它还能涨多高？”相反，大家抛出的全是电视和财经自媒体上常见的恐慌叙事：“美元是不是要失去全球储备货币地位了？”、“天呐，看看美国现在欠了多少国债！”、“利率飙这么高怎么办？”。这说明公众根本没有在享受这轮牛市。Josh Brown 随即指出，当下的信息生态决定了媒体和社交网络永远以贩卖焦虑来吸引眼球，市场永远不可能再回到“所有人都在全心欢呼雀跃”的时代。如果你还在傻等“人声鼎沸、散户全员亢奋冲进场”作为牛市见顶的离场信号，那只会彻底踏空，因为在这轮周期中，大多数人注定会一路做空、一路质疑到底。 ### [37:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2260s) 黄金白银暴跌背后的真实收益率与战术调仓 讨论转向了贵金属近期的剧烈回调。Josh Brown 询问两人如何看待黄金和白银近期的猛烈去杠杆跳水（unwind）。Sonu Varghese 分析指出，这主要是实际收益率（real yields）上升以及美联储展现出偏鹰姿态的结果。此前市场将通胀升温视作黄金利好，并推动了一波避险交易（包括中东冲突爆发前黄金的狂飙），但随后市场不仅完全剔除了降息两次的预期，甚至开始给加息定价。实际收益率持续走高，不仅直接给黄金当头一棒，也同样波及到了加密货币等无息资产。即便战争爆发，黄金在战后也出现大幅下挫。 Ryan 和 Sonu 借此分享了他们在 Carson Group 战术投资组合中的调仓实录： - **建仓时点与初衷**：在2023年3月31日（硅谷银行等区域性银行危机爆发紧随其后），他们在战术模型中大幅建仓黄金。在原本“60/40”的组合架构下（约 68%~69% 股票，31%~32% 固收与其它），他们选择从固收配置和部分现金中抽调资金买入黄金，将其作为长久期国债的替代品来对冲危机风险，避免拉长债券久期。 - **基本面逻辑**：过去一年多他们一直坚定押注“通胀型增长（inflationary growth）”环境，即通胀可能维持在 3% 到 3.5% 的较高区间，但经济将保持韧性、利率维持高位。这一逻辑在过去一年里完美兑现，黄金涨幅惊人。 - **高位获利了结**：近期在金价突破每盎司 2400 美元关口时，Sonu 敏锐观察到实际收益率持续走高，并在内部力主减仓。Carson Group 随后果断在战术模型中清仓了绝大部分黄金头寸，精准避开了随后的暴跌。虽然在长期战略组合中他们仍保留少量黄金底仓，但在战术层面上他们已锁定了收益。 ### [39:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2380s) 资本开支激增：IT设备与软件投资超互联网泡沫顶峰 Josh 将讨论引向 Carson Group 带来的一张宏观重磅图表（Chart 8）：信息处理设备与软件投资占美国 GDP 的比重，如今已经正式超越了2000年互联网泡沫时期的峰值。Josh 提出疑问：乐观来看，当前数字化在经济中的体量和深度远非当年可比，软硬件开支占 GDP 比例更高似乎顺理成章；但单看这一比例升得如此陡峭，甚至让人有一种想要立刻卖掉戴尔（Dell，今年表现最好的牛股之一）的冲动。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: GDP Investment Comparison Flow accDescr: Visualizing the surge in IT capex compared to past residential bubbles and current data center components subgraph Business_Investment ["商业投资 (Business Investment)"] direction TB A["IT信息处理设备\n(服务器/芯片等硬件)"] B["企业级软件采购"] C["数据中心实体建筑施工\n(尚未计入此指标中)"] A & B --> D["当前IT软硬件投资 / GDP\n已超越2000年科技泡沫峰值"] end subgraph Comparison ["历史极值对比"] E["2005-2006 房地产泡沫峰值\n住宅投资占 GDP 约 6.5%"] F["当前住宅投资\n处于极低冰河期 (受高利率抑制)"] end D -.->|斜率陡峭，追赶历史| E F -.->|若未来降息松绑| G["经济潜在新增长动能"] ``` Sonu 解释道，在这项统计中，GDP 投资主要分为企业商业投资与住宅投资两大部分。图表中显眼的黄线代表住宅投资，其在2005至2006年房地产泡沫破裂前曾一路狂飙至占 GDP 的 6.5%，走出了一个犹如“半个麦当劳 M 标”的夸张抛物线，随后一落千丈进入冰河期。而代表 IT 软硬件支出的绿线，关键并不单是绝对高度，而是上升的斜率（Delta）极其惊人。更值得注意的是： - **统计范畴局限**：目前的绿线数据仅包含了计算机、服务器等 IT 设备以及软件支出，**完全没有包括数据中心本身的实体建筑施工开支**。如果算上正在全美遍地开花的数据中心基建工程，科技资本开支的扩张速度更加庞大。 - **企业开支意愿**：即将到来的7月财报季中，各大云厂商超大规模计算中心（Hyperscalers，如微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta）极大概率会继续宣布上调 AI 基础设施资本支出。 - **宏观经济韧性**：在住宅投资因美联储高利率紧缩政策（限制了二手房交易和新开工）而持续冰封的背景下，美国经济依然展现出极强韧性；一旦未来利率适度回落带动房地产市场复苏，经济甚至还有额外的反弹动力。 ### [42:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2550s) 全球 AI 映射与季节性规律：从新兴市场到“七月效应” Josh 调出下一张图表（Chart 11），指出一个反直觉的现象：新兴市场（EM）的盈利预测上修速度居然超过了美国本土。大家随后剖析了这背后的核心推手——这并不是大宗商品或传统周期股的胜利，而是一场完完全全由硬件供应链驱动的全球 AI 军团映射： - **核心贡献者**：新兴市场的强劲盈利完全被台积电（TSMC）所在的台湾市场，以及三星（Samsung）和 SK 海力士（SK Hynix）等存储芯片霸主所在的韩国市场所拉动。相比之下，传统的印度等内需市场近期表现反而较为挣扎。 - **认知刷新**：十年前谈到新兴市场投资，大家第一反应是拉美或东南亚的石油、矿业与农业大宗商品；而如今的新兴市场指数已深度绑定先进制程晶圆代工与高带宽内存（HBM）的超级景气周期。 在节目的最后，Ryan 结合季节性历史走势指出了当前的交易良机。历史数据显示，美股历来存在“六月走弱（June Swoon）”的季节性格局，尤其是在下半年容易出现短线下跌，而当前市场的颠簸正好与历史剧本分秒不差（right on cue）。然而，正如《股票交易者年鉴》（Stock Trader's Almanac）掌门人 Jeffrey Hirsch 多次强调的那样，六月下旬的回调往往是一件健康的好事，它提前释放了获利盘和技术面抛压。在过去的20年中，七月份是美股表现最强劲的月份之一（过去14年中有13年录得上涨）。随着即将在七月全面打响的财报季，大厂资本开支与强劲业绩有望为这轮由 AI 引领的牛市注入新的推进燃料。 ### [44:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2660s) 美光科技的炸裂财报：利润率与资本去向的“甜蜜烦恼” 对美股财报季的乐观预期正在现实中得到强劲印证。讨论切入到了美光科技（Micron Technology）令人瞠目结舌的业绩表现。美光展现出的盈利能力堪称前所未见：其毛利率此前高达 84% 至 85%，而公司对下一个季度的指引居然依然维持在 84% 这一罕见的高位。更惊人的是其财务结构中的杠杆效应——单季度营收高达 410 亿美元，而运营支出（OpEx）仅仅在 20 亿美元左右，展现出几乎不可思议的暴利属性。 回顾美光近年来的每股收益（EPS）轨迹，这种爆发式增长被形容为一种真正的“阶梯函数式跃迁”（step function）： - 就在 2025 年 3 月，其每股收益仅为 9 美元； - 到了 3 个月前，这一数字跃升至 86 美元； - 而最新披露的每股收益更是直接窜升到了 132 美元。 在坐拥海量现金流之后，这些半导体巨头的资本配置策略成了焦点。美光不仅授权了全新的股票回购计划，还偿还并注销了大约 50 亿美元的债务（其总债务约为 140 亿美元）。这引发了嘉宾们对其“现金多到不知该怎么花”的调侃——就像电影《血钻》（Blood Diamond）里的指挥官泽泽（Commander Zero）坐拥数不清的钻石却茫然无措一样，甚至有分析师在电话会议上直接起哄建议公司“干脆直接回购 10% 的流通股算了”。 --- ### [46:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2780s) 股票净供应反转：回购熄火与天量新股发行的分流隐忧 从微观的个股现金流转向宏观的供求关系时，一个关键的市场转折浮出水面：过去 20 多年来由上市公司举债回购支撑的“股票供给萎缩”格局正在逆转，美股市场的股票净供应量（net equity supply）已经重新转为正值。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 美股股票净供应逆转机制 accDescr: 展示从过去企业借债回购推高估值，到如今新股增发与资本开支分流现金流的机制转变。 subgraph Past["过去十年：供给收缩牛市"] A["企业发债融资 / 巨额现金"] --> B["大规模股票回购"] B --> C["流通股缩减 / EPS 拔高"] end subgraph Present["当下趋势：资本开支驱动与供给扩张"] D["科技巨头削减回购"] --> E["资本开支投向数据中心与基建"] F["IPO 与跨境上市热潮"] --> G["股票供给大幅增加"] E --> H["资金进入实体经济但摊薄估值倍数"] G --> H end ``` 这种供给端的变化正在被多方力量推高，形成潜在的估值逆风： 1. **科技巨头的回购潮骤然熄火**：彭博社（Bloomberg）的数据显示，在过去支撑回购的“四大巨头”——Alphabet、Meta、微软（Microsoft）和亚马逊（Amazon）中，目前仅剩微软还在小规模回购，且很可能也将趋近于零。 2. **天量增发与新股上市**： - 谷歌母公司 Alphabet 刚刚通过股权完成约 800 亿美元的融资； - 韩国存储巨头 SK 海力士（SK Hynix）正准备赴美上市（非简单的 ADR 形式，而是在纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌），计划向美国市场直接投放约 300 亿美元的存储类股票； - 加上 SpaceX 筹资等大额交易，市场上可交易的股票池子（the pie of available shares）被急剧做大。 曾经躺在科技巨头资产负债表上的所谓“场外观望资金”（cash on the sidelines），过去被用来回购自家股票以推高估值倍数；而如今，这笔庞大的资金被抽离，转向了数据中心等实体基建建设。这虽直接推升了产业链上下游企业的利润，但也意味着股票供给过剩可能会摊薄每股收益（EPS），并对投资人愿意支付的整体估值倍数施加压制。 --- ### [49:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2965s) 狂热重现还是分母错觉？从 IPO 规模审视泡沫真相 针对供给冲击论，讨论进一步对比了当前情况与 20 世纪 90 年代末互联网泡沫时期的差异。有观点指出，仅 SpaceX、OpenAI 和 Anthropic 这三家超级独角兽未来的潜在市值体量，就已超过了 1997 年至泡沫顶峰时期所有上市公司的总和。 然而，如果从实际融资总额占年初标普 500 指数总市值的比例来看，目前这一数字仅为 0.18%，尚不到 90 年代狂热顶峰时期的十分之一。这就是典型的“分母盲区”（denominator blindness）——人们往往只关注融资金额的分子有多大，却忽略了当今美股总市值这一分母早已膨胀得极其庞大。当然，一旦 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 正式完成天量上市，该比例确实会逼近 1999 至 2000 年的高位水平。 与会者探讨了面对这种宏观周期的投资心态： - **拒绝择时**：试图预判泡沫何时破裂往往是徒劳的。正如市场上此前批判企业“金融工程”（买股票推升 EPS）的人，现在转过头来同样不满意“企业减少回购、把钱花在实体投资与创造就业上”。 - **荒谬的估值预测**：面对摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）预测“特斯拉营收将在 2040 年达到 3.4 万亿美元”这样令人咋舌的论调，投资者很难笃定这究竟是未来现实还是巨大泡沫。 - **配置应对策略**：既然无法精确择时，合理的策略就是顺应动量（momentum）继续在浪潮上乘风破浪，但同时随着动量走高，必须同步加大“多元分散资产”（diversifiers）的仓位权重，防范极端波动。 --- ### [52:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3135s) 终极隐患：AI 瓶颈与通胀再抬头的威胁 当被问及若不担心股票发行的供给压力，市场上真正的核心威胁到底是什么时，答案迅速落回到了通胀与收益率曲线上。 在年初俄乌冲突及中东等地缘动荡爆发前，通过分析核心 PCE（个人消费支出平减指数）细分的 178 个组成部分，通胀的“泛化扩散”（broadening out）趋势就已经悄然显现。随后的冲突进一步加剧了物价压力。然而，哪怕剥离地缘因素，核心 PCE 依然呈现持续攀升的态势。这不仅局限于服务业与商品消费的韧性，背后更深层的推手还包括 AI 基建热潮带来的严重资源瓶颈——电力、芯片、数据中心等全方位的供应限制正在成为推高整体通胀不可忽视的结构性阻力。 ### [53:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3180s) 美光利润率即苹果通胀：科技硬件定价压力 演播室围绕美光科技（Micron）与苹果（Apple）的利润博弈展开讨论。当天苹果股价遭遇重挫，大跌 6%，作为全球市值数一数二的科技巨头，这一下跌蒸发了巨额市值。Josh Brown 与 Michael Batnick 指出，这直接源于硬件成本上涨以及消费科技产品终端价格上升的预期。台上展示了一张个人消费支出（PCE）中计算机软件及配件价格指数的图表，这代表了芯片供应商日益扩大的利润率。 他们精辟地指出，这枚硬币的正反面正展现出来：“一家公司的利润率扩张，就是另一家公司的通胀（One company's margin expansion is somebody else's inflation）”。美光等半导体厂商攫取的超额利润，最终需要苹果及其消费者来买单。但这种成本传导是否意味着灾难性的全面通胀？Ryan Detrick 认为市场存在缓和因素，大可不必过于恐慌。 ### [54:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3246s) 市场宽度与信贷利差：看懂大局的两个关键指标 Ryan Detrick 分享了他判断市场真实健康状况的极简框架：腾落线（Advance-Decline Lines，市场宽度指标）与信贷市场（Credit Markets）。目前，美股小盘股和中盘股的腾落线正不断刷新历史新高，标普 500 指数和纽约证券交易所（仅普通股）的腾落线也逼近历史高位。从历史上看，市场宽度创下新高后，美股大盘平均在 11 个月后才会见顶。 与此同时，投资级与 BBB 级企业债的信贷利差极其平稳，几乎看不到任何恐慌情绪。Ryan 形象地比喻道：“如果床底真有怪物，信贷市场一定会率先感知。”虽然某些个别行业可能存在过热与爆仓风险，但从宏观大局来看，金融体系基础依然稳健。面对高通胀环境，Ryan 的资产管理团队在年初就配置了管理期货（Managed Futures）和股票，并提前获利了结黄金，同时削减债券敞口，因为历史数据证明，在温和通胀时期股票整体仍能维持不错的表现。 - 腾落线（A/D Line）：小盘股与中盘股腾落线创历史新高，纽交所普通股腾落线接近历史高点。 - 见顶时间规律：市场宽度见顶后，美股大盘平均约 11 个月后见顶。 - 资产配置策略：增配管理期货和股票，降低债券敞口，并在大幅调整前抛售了黄金。 ### [55:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3326s) 美联储政策路径辩论：降息、加息还是让经济“过热运行”？ 关于美联储的利率路径，嘉宾们展开了激烈交锋。年初全市场还在押注美联储会降息多少次（一次还是两次），而 Carson Group 团队当时就唱反调，认为降息的阻力远超市场预期。如今风向彻底转变，市场开始担忧美联储是否会重新加息。Sonu Varghese 强调：“要看实际投票，不要只看点阵图（Count the votes, not the dots）。” 尽管核心非房租服务业（Core services excluding housing）通胀依然火热——5 月环比上涨 0.5%（年化 6%），过去 3 个月折合年化达到 4%——但原油价格已从每桶 120 美元大幅回落至 70 美元附近，消除了最紧迫的加息借口。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 美联储通胀应对逻辑与市场路径 accDescr: 描绘通胀韧性下美联储选择维持高利率、超大规模资本支出支撑市场，以及未来潜在追赶式加息的推演过程 subgraph Current["当前政策态势"] A["核心服务业通胀高企 (年化4%-6%)"] --> B["原油大跌消除加息紧迫性"] B --> C["美联储选择不加息<br/>允许经济'过热运行' (Run it hot)"] end subgraph Impact["市场承压能力"] C --> D["实质性政策边际宽松"] D --> E["科技巨头巨额资本支出持续<br/>(占GDP约2.5%)"] E --> F["股市与企业盈利获得支撑"] end subgraph TailRisk["远期潜在风险 (2027年)"] F -.-> G["通胀长期维持3%以上未能受控"] G -.-> H["美联储严重落后于曲线<br/>被迫追赶式激进加息 (如2022年)"] H -.-> I["牛市终结风险"] end ``` Sonu 分析认为，美联储不会选择加息，这意味着实际政策立场是在边际变松，即美联储默认让经济“过热运行”（Run it hot），这对当前经济和企业盈利有利。只要美联储不重演 2022 年连续 50 基点甚至 75 基点的暴力加息节奏，温和的加息（例如偶尔加息 25 个基点）完全不会击垮市场，因为各大超大规模云服务商（Hyperscalers）仍将占 GDP 约 2.5% 的巨额资金投入 AI 硬件和算力基础设施。真正的牛市终结风险在于：如果高通胀持续到 2027 年，美联储发现自己严重落后于曲线并被迫仓促加息追赶，那才会成为牛市的“终结者”。 ### [58:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3488s) 区域银行的信号 vs 比特币逻辑突变 Josh 将话题转向一张对比强烈的图表（图 34）：比特币与区域性银行（Regional Banks）。眼下除了半导体存储芯片，区域性银行是整个市场中最火爆的交易品种。Josh 强调，区域银行股的突破蕴含着极强的宏观信号：这些银行不依赖华尔街投行与资本市场业务，它们的命脉完全系于普通老百姓按时还款——包括房屋净值信用贷款（HELOC）、信用卡、汽车贷款、小型企业贷款以及中型市场信贷。当这些实体经济的“血脉”股票纷纷向上突破时，任何看空宏观经济的末日论调都站不住脚。 与此同时，比特币在 1 月份突然出现断崖式下跌，令市场摸不着头脑。关于比特币暴跌的原因，演播室抛出了几种有趣的视角： 1. **“比特币就是软件”**：Michael Batnick 戏称，比特币归根结底就是一段代码，因此它的走势完全像一只巨型软件股一样随软件板块一同承压。 2. **流动性抽血**：有人猜测投资者被迫抛售加密资产，套现以参与 SpaceX 等未上市科技明星的非公开发行。 3. **真实收益率上升**：随着实际收益率走高，黄金与比特币等抗法币贬值交易（Debasement trade）同时受挫。Josh 吐槽道，比特币曾经被捧为“数字黄金”，如今跌了又被改称为“软件股”。 在银行业板块内部，更底层的社区银行（Community Banks）同样呈现向上突破态势。Ryan 回顾道，在 2006 至 2007 年全球金融危机（GFC）爆发前夕，大盘虽然创新高，但金融股早已率先破位崩塌、腾落线也早已见顶；而今天的情形截然相反，不仅摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）股价创出历史新高，中小银行亦全线发力，印证了本轮经济与牛市周期的底层韧性。 ### [01:01:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3660s) 消费韧性、区域银行与全面扩大的牛市格局 随着讨论延伸至微软与比特币、乃至软件股 ETF（IGV）走势的相似性，嘉宾们将焦点拉回宏观经济的底层支柱——美国消费者与劳动力市场。Sonu Varghese 指出，劳动力市场的实际表现远好于年初非农头条数据所呈现的表象，过去三个月的实际指标依然稳固。最新出炉的个人消费支出数据显示，过去三个月美国的名义个人消费折合成年率达到了惊人的 8.5%。尽管有人质疑“我们生活在一个名义世界里”，且其中大部分涨幅来自于通胀（扣除物价因素后的实际消费增速仅为 2.1%），但不可否认的是，普通大众仍然在持续消费。 在这一基本面支撑下，市场结构正在发生极具说服力的变化。如果区域银行、工业板块以及小盘股都在同步向上突破，那么几乎无法从逻辑上推导出“经济周期即将见顶终结”的结论。这种多板块由点及面的轮动爆发，恰恰证明了当前经济体系的活力远比许多悲观论调预期的更为深厚。 - **名义消费增速**：过去三个月年化增长达 8.5%，凸显消费名义支出依然强劲。 - **实际消费增速**：剔除通胀因素后约为 2.1%，虽有降温但并未陷入收缩。 - **多板块突破**：区域性银行、工业类股票和小盘股同时走出强劲态势，直接挑战了“周期见顶论”。 --- ### [01:01:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3719s) 体育闲聊：尼克斯队的季后赛之旅与布伦森现象 在紧绷的市场推演间隙，Ryan Detrick 转换话题，由衷祝贺纽约尼克斯队在近期比赛中的精彩表现。作为辛辛那提孟加拉虎队（Bengals）的铁杆橄榄球迷，Ryan 苦笑自家主队战绩低迷，因此只能在篮球赛季借着尼克斯队的胜利过瘾。当被问及最喜欢的尼克斯球员时，众人毫无悬念地一致推选当家球星杰伦·布伦森（Jalen Brunson）。 大家特别重温了选秀历史上的经典名场面：曾有记者问布伦森作为次轮秀，“当年各支球队看走眼错过了你的什么特质？”布伦森轻描淡写地回答：“错过了我的一切（Everything）。”这句霸气且极具信心的回答成为了体育界脍炙人口的谈资。现场还顺带聊起了纽约“尼克”（Knickerbocker）这一名称与荷兰奥兰治家族（House of Orange）橙色传统的历史渊源，为热烈的投资讨论增添了轻松幽默的纽约本土文化氛围。 --- ### [01:03:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3785s) 节目总结与《Facts Versus Feelings》播客推介 节目录制步入尾声，Ryan Detrick 与 Sonu Varghese 对 Josh Brown 和 Michael Batnick 的邀请表达了诚挚感谢。Ryan 坦言，这已经是他们第三次做客《The Compound and Friends》，每次露面都会为 Carson Group 旗下的《Facts Versus Feelings》播客带来极具爆发力的收听增长。 Josh 与 Michael 亦回馈了充分的赞赏，称赞 Ryan 与 Sonu 在巡回演讲与专业分析上的过硬功底，彼此惺惺相惜。在介绍两人的播客时，Ryan 幽默地提醒听众，《Facts Versus Feelings》固定在每周三早晨更新，“不过周三早上还有另一档播客《Animal Spirits》发布，大家可以先去听 Michael 和 Ben Carlson 的节目，然后再来听我们”。最后，主持人在掌声与欢笑中向听众致谢道别，本期对美联储、通胀预期、AI 资本开支及市场全方位轮动深具洞见的讨论圆满落幕。 ## Notable quotes > [09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=561s) 如果我显得特别清楚明白，那很可能是你误解了我的意思（If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said）。 — Alan Greenspan (引用) > [15:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=948s) 我们生活在一个‘泡沫文化’中，每个人都恨不得在所有地方寻找泡沫。 — Josh Brown > [30:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1823s) 如果人人都想法一致，那就有人根本没在思考（If everybody's thinking alike, somebody isn't thinking）。 — 巴顿将军 (引用) > [32:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=1921s) 既然我都可以在 2 倍杠杆半导体 ETF 上买看涨期权（Calls on 2X ETF）了，我还坐在这听你们聊什么？ — Josh Brown > [33:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=2038s) 市场广度领先于价格（Breadth leads price）。 — Ryan Detrick > [53:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3180s) 一家公司的利润率扩张，就是另一家公司的通胀（One company's margin expansion is somebody else's inflation）。 — Josh Brown 与 Michael Batnick > [54:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3246s) 如果床底真有怪物，信贷市场一定会率先感知。 — Ryan Detrick > [55:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3326s) 要看实际投票，不要只看点阵图（Count the votes, not the dots）。 — Sonu Varghese > [01:01:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ&t=3719s) 错过了我的一切（Everything）。 — Jalen Brunson (引用) ## Mentioned Michael Batnick, Josh Brown, Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese, Callie Cox, Alan Greenspan, Derek Thompson, Warren Pies, Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Hirsch, Jalen Brunson, Carson Group, Nuveen, Schaeffer's Investment Research, LPL Financial, Convex Capital Management, 美联储 (Federal Reserve / FOMC), 美光科技 (Micron Technology), 苹果 (Apple), 英伟达 (NVIDIA), 微软 (Microsoft), 谷歌 / Alphabet, 亚马逊 (Amazon), Meta, 台积电 (TSMC), 三星 (Samsung), SK 海力士 (SK Hynix), SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, ARK 创新基金 (ARKK), 戴尔 (Dell), 康宁 (Corning), 卡特彼勒 (Caterpillar), 摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase), 摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley), 美银美林 (Bank of America), Roundhill, Facts vs. Feelings (播客), Animal Spirits (播客), The Compound and Friends (节目), 标普 500 指数 (S&P 500 / SPY), 罗素 2000 指数 (Russell 2000 / IWM), 标普 600 小盘股指数, 纽约尼克斯队 (New York Knicks) ## Video description On episode 248 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ of Carson Group, to discuss the biggest questions facing investors right now: the Fed, inflation, market rotation, Micron’s incredible run, semiconductor demand, small caps, gold, Bitcoin, regional banks, and whether the Mag 7 slowdown is actually bullish for the market. They also discuss Alan Greenspan’s legacy, Fed transparency, crowded trades, equity issuance, emerging markets, and why this bull market may have more room to run than investors think. This episode is sponsored by Nuveen. Learn more about Nuveen’s comprehensive private markets platform at⁠ https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/alternatives ►00:00 - Cold Open ►03:13 - Intro ►04:46 - Greenspan’s Legacy and The Future of The Fed ►12:53 - Is This an AI Bubble? ►22:20 - The Last Bubble Already Popped ►25:37 - Micron, Semiconductors, and The AI Trade ►30:18 - The Most Crowded Trade in The Market ►35:16 - Market Rotation Beyond The Mag 7 ►39:07 - Small Caps Are Breaking Out ►41:01 - SpaceX, IPO Mania, and Investor FOMO ►43:06 - Gold, Real Yields, and Inflation ►44:33 - AI Capex vs The Dot-Com Bubble ►47:18 - Emerging Markets and The Global AI Trade ►51:13 - Equity Issuance and Shrinking Buybacks ►57:08 - Inflation, The Fed, and What Could Kill The Bull Market ►01:03:01 - Regional Banks, Bitcoin, and The Economy 👕 Check out The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com 🎙️Listen to our podcasts: TCAF: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/ Animal Spirits: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/animalspirits/ Ask The Compound: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/ATC/ The Compound Newsletter: https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Josh Brown and Michael Batnick are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. #thecompound #investing #stockmarket #stocks [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8rDDtfw2DQ)

[9:21] Alan Greenspan (引用): 如果我显得特别清楚明白，那很可能是你误解了我的意思（If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said）。 [15:48] Josh Brown: 我们生活在一个‘泡沫文化’中，每个人都恨不得在所有地方寻找泡沫。 [30:23] 巴顿将军 (引用): 如果人人都想法一致，那就有人根本没在思考（If everybody's thinking alike, somebody isn't thinking）。 [32:01] Josh Brown: 既然我都可以在 2 倍杠杆半导体 ETF 上买看涨期权（Calls on 2X ETF）了，我还坐在这听你们聊什么？ [33:58] Ryan Detrick: 市场广度领先于价格（Breadth leads price）。 [53:00] Josh Brown 与 Michael Batnick: 一家公司的利润率扩张，就是另一家公司的通胀（One company's margin expansion is somebody else's inflation）。 [54:06] Ryan Detrick: 如果床底真有怪物，信贷市场一定会率先感知。 [55:26] Sonu Varghese: 要看实际投票，不要只看点阵图（Count the votes, not the dots）。 [61:59] Jalen Brunson (引用): 错过了我的一切（Everything）。

[4:46] Alan Greenspan: If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said [12:53] Ryan Detrick: The reality is these bull markets last longer than you think... This bull market just cracked the eighth longest since World War II... The average length of those other seven was like seven years. [16:20] Michael Batnick: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bubble [16:40] Michael Batnick: In 2021, Apple—the best of the bunch—fell 30%. Google 44%, Amazon 56%, Nvidia 66%, Netflix 75%, Meta 77%, and ARK—the poster child—80%, and is still in a gigantic drawdown. [30:30] General Patton: If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking [30:30] Josh Brown: On Tuesday, the S&P was down 1.4%. Yet 285 stocks in the S&P 500 were higher... Only five times going back over 20 years have we seen a day where the S&P was down more than 1%, but more stocks were up than down. [30:30] Josh Brown: Hey, Mr. Cramer, am I diversified?... It's all tech. [32:04] Michael Batnick: Listed options on the Roundhill T-Rex 2x Long DRAM Daily Target ETF are now available... I could buy calls on the 2x. [34:06] Ryan Detrick: The most recent question or the most popular one as of last week was: how do we get into SpaceX? [34:06] Ryan Detrick: I've never in the last couple years been asked, 'Hey, this is pretty good out there. How high is this going to go?' It's always the dollar is going to lose reserve currency status... look at all the debt we have. [43:00] Ryan Detrick: The last 20 years, July has been by far the best month... higher either 12 of 13 or 13 of the past 14 years. [52:16] Sonu Varghese: One company's margin expansion is somebody else's inflation. [59:00] Josh Brown: So Bitcoin was gold. Now it's not gold. Now it's software.

[0:00] All right. Who's winning in the World [0:01] Cup? Because I have no idea. Like where? [0:04] >> Maybe France. [0:06] >> No, but like where does the st Where are [0:07] the standings? Because teams have been [0:09] knocked out already, right? [0:10] >> Yeah. Uh about five or six have been [0:12] knocked out. [0:13] >> Wow. Already? [0:14] >> Yeah. Yeah. [0:14] >> All right. So, who's Wow. [0:16] >> Who's in contention for like to to stay [0:19] in the whole thing, do you think? [0:21] >> I I think it's several. Like it's a [0:22] round of 32. So, you have 32 out of [0:25] what? 48 teams. [0:26] >> Okay. [0:27] >> Still in the mix. But the ones that [0:29] matter [0:30] >> is the final. [0:31] >> Do they give you the locations of where [0:32] like the final final games are going to [0:34] be? [0:34] >> Yeah, the finals going to be here in [0:36] Jersey. Metife. [0:37] >> Oh boy. I'll be I'll be sure to get the [0:38] hell out of here. [0:40] >> Yes. If it's anything like today. [0:41] >> That's tire thumper weather. [0:43] >> Yeah. [0:43] >> So last night we we we ran around New [0:45] York. Had fun. We went to dinner. He [0:47] goes back to the room. I'm working on [0:48] stuff for the show and different things. [0:50] >> You went straight to Flash Dance. [0:51] >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. What's that? [0:53] >> Bro, I have friends that saw you there. [0:55] Go on. [0:56] >> That's an AI image of you, Josh. It's [0:57] not the real Ryan. Um, and then I was [1:00] talking, what did you do last night? He [1:01] was literally watching like soccer [1:02] documentaries at midnight last night. [1:04] Okay. So, I mean, I was like I thought [1:07] about watching. I mean, you really were [1:09] right. [1:09] >> He's a man of culture. [1:12] >> Exactly. [1:12] >> He's a man of culture and taste. [1:14] >> Right. [1:15] >> All right. [1:16] >> Um, [1:16] >> that's cool. That's cool, though. Um, [1:18] cuz it's not what How often does it come [1:21] to New The last one I remember in New [1:23] York was like in ' 04 or something? [1:25] >> 94. 94. [1:27] >> 94. All right. So that's the last time [1:29] in the US. [1:30] >> But then they do it everywhere in the [1:31] US. [1:32] >> Yes, usually. Except Chicago, it feels [1:34] like because last time 94 there was a [1:36] game in Chicago. I think the opening [1:38] game was in Chicago. This time not quite [1:40] around because on anything or [1:42] >> No, I think the cities that bid for it. [1:44] >> Okay. [1:44] >> You know, that are part of the bidding [1:46] committee. I think that's how it works. [1:48] >> All right. Well, I'm rooting for your [1:49] team is the Netherlands. You said [1:50] >> Netherlands? Yeah. Other than the US, [1:52] obviously. [1:53] >> Why do you like the Netherlands? [1:55] So, I started watching soccer when I was [1:57] >> That's neither here nor there. [1:59] >> All right, let's start the show. [2:00] >> Yeah. [2:01] >> Yeah. Any more talk about any more talk [2:03] about soccer? We're going to lose our [2:05] last eight fans. [2:07] >> Thrones. [2:21] This message is brought to you by [2:23] Newvine. Private markets have become [2:25] essential for building resilient [2:26] long-term portfolios. As traditional [2:28] markets face increasing pressure from [2:30] inflation, rise in rates, and economic [2:32] uncertainty, investors are turning to [2:34] private markets to find new sources of [2:35] return and stability. New combines [2:38] private market expertise with innovative [2:39] solutions across real estate, credit [2:41] infrastructure, and natural capital, [2:42] helping investors navigate volatility, [2:44] manage risk, and unlock lasting growth [2:46] potential. Nuvian's integrated platform [2:48] offers strategies across varying risk [2:49] profiles engineered to enhance [2:51] traditional allocations and support [2:53] portfolio stability across a range of [2:55] market environments. Grounded in [2:57] experience and focus on the future, New [2:59] delivers private market solutions [3:01] designed to stand the test of time. New [3:03] unlocking opportunity in private [3:04] markets. Visit newv.com to learn more. [3:07] Investing involves risk. Principal loss [3:08] is possible. Private market investments [3:10] may not be suitable for all investors. [3:13] >> Thank you, Big John. [3:15] All right. [3:17] All good. Everyone's good. Duncan, you [3:19] okay? [3:21] >> Yeah, I'm great. [3:22] >> You good? [3:23] >> Yeah. [3:24] >> All right. [3:25] You got that microphone up there like [3:27] you're uh in a recording studio, like [3:29] you're a backup center. [3:30] >> Didn't mean to. [3:30] >> Bring it down. Bring it down to face [3:32] level. All right, guys. We are in for a [3:34] treat. fan favorites, [3:38] professional market commentators, [3:41] strategists, [3:43] economic experts. [3:46] Ryan Dietrich and Senu Vargas are back. [3:50] Ryan is the chief market strategist at [3:52] Carson Group, an advisory firm with more [3:54] than 60 billion in assets. Prior to [3:57] Carson, Ryan spent more than a decade at [3:59] Schaefer's Investment Research and six [4:01] years at LPL Financial. Ryan also [4:04] co-hosts a top investing podcast facts [4:08] versus feelings assertion very confident [4:10] my assertion [4:13] >> alongside Carson Group colleague Su is [4:16] the chief macro strategist at Carson [4:18] Group 20 years of experience in the [4:20] asset management industry before joining [4:22] Carson he was a partner and director of [4:24] research at convex capital management [4:28] where he co-managed portfolios advised [4:30] clients and led the research teams [4:33] It is a pleasure to have you back. Thank [4:35] you for being here. [4:38] >> Yes. All right. We are. All right. I'm [4:40] co-host Michael Badnik, ladies and [4:42] gentlemen. Michael, what's up? Good to [4:44] see everybody. [4:45] >> All right. Alan Greenspan died this [4:47] week. [4:48] >> Um, I don't believe in this thing where [4:50] when someone passes away, you're not [4:51] supposed to say negative things about [4:53] them. I actually think you should double [4:55] down. Do you guys want to trash Allan [4:57] Greenspan in any way or do you any any [5:01] opinions whatsoever on the legacy of [5:03] Greenspan? [5:04] >> It's a complicated legacy, I guess. [5:06] >> Look at him. He's getting just getting [5:07] warmed up. [5:08] >> Do it. [5:09] >> By the way, another thing on my bio [5:11] there. I'm a third time offender of [5:12] joining this podcast. This is my third [5:14] time. So, thank you for this second. So, [5:16] thank you guys. Um, [5:17] >> my first one though is that birthday [5:19] party you had with JC. remember in [5:21] February of 2024, we all went down that [5:24] dark basement and had [5:25] >> That was awesome. Awesome. [5:27] >> Sounds like you're talking very romantic [5:28] all your voice. [5:30] >> I've been told I have a face for radio, [5:32] so I just I go with it. Um, [5:34] >> so obviously he was well-loved during [5:37] the '9s. Market goes up, everybody's [5:40] happy. And then you look what he did [5:43] with the bubble and left interest rates [5:45] maybe a little bit lower after the [5:47] bubble. And a lot of people now look [5:49] back and say, "Ah, maybe that [5:51] contributed to the great financial [5:52] crisis. Did it? Did it not?" There's [5:53] other factors to it, of course. But [5:55] >> yeah, [5:56] >> it's a complicated legacy, you know, and [5:57] I looked I know I we sent you guys a ton [6:00] of charts, I know, but the one that [6:01] shows the breakdown of all the um [6:03] returns. I mean, he was in charge of the [6:04] Fed for 18 years, right? He took over [6:06] right before 87. Good handoff from [6:08] Vulkar. Market crashes. Um gained 290% [6:11] his 18 years. Annualized, it's like I'm [6:13] going by memory here, like seven, seven [6:14] and a half percent. a standard, but he [6:16] was the second longest tenure and second [6:18] largest return. [6:20] >> Wait, hang on. He's not a mutual fund [6:21] manager. He doesn't get credit. [6:23] >> He's not. But people Hey, is this a [6:25] financial podcast? Yeah. I mean, that's [6:27] true. But I mean, I guess, you know, so [6:29] he was there a long time, did okay. But [6:30] there's a [6:31] >> Stop telling me how much alpha he had. [6:33] >> Wait a minute. [6:34] >> Wait a minute. The reason I ask about [6:36] the legacy is [6:39] well, we're going to put aside all the [6:41] financial crisis stuff because it's [6:43] ancient history. Um although [6:45] interestingly a lot of people don't know [6:46] this one of the Fed's primary [6:49] responsibilities people think the FOMC [6:51] is the whole point of the Fed [6:52] >> they're actually a banking regulator I [6:54] know so okay so putting that a banking [6:57] regulator where the chairman of of the [6:59] the Fed actively working against [7:02] regulating but we'll put all that aside [7:05] the legacy really to me is an increased [7:08] focus on asset prices at the Fed some [7:11] would argue that's where they should [7:13] have gone because more and more of the [7:15] economy is being driven by assets anyway [7:18] and I believe in that. Um but I think [7:21] now uh we've been been through several [7:24] succeeding Fed chairs and the new Fed [7:27] chair sort of is a little bit influenced [7:30] by Greenspan sort of a little bit [7:31] Greenspan. He certainly wants to [7:34] communicate less frequently and um he [7:37] actually cited Greenspan recently uh [7:40] just prior to his passing as somebody [7:42] who inspired him. So I'm curious if you [7:44] think as market participants there's [7:47] something that we should all sort of be [7:48] aware of about this transition. What do [7:50] you guys think? [7:52] I think there's a myth that you know [7:53] Greenspan didn't tell us what he wants [7:55] to do but he gave us a lot of you know [7:58] uh a lot of speeches for example on how [8:01] he thought the economy works. I mean, [8:03] you go back to '94 and I would say, you [8:05] know, I think most people would probably [8:07] say that he panicked about inflation, [8:10] raised rates in a hurry. Then 9596, I [8:13] think he gave time for productivity [8:14] growth to pull inflation lower. [8:16] >> Wait, sorry to cut off. He blew up [8:17] California basically when he when he did [8:19] that in '94. [8:20] >> And then in 99, actually May of 99, he [8:23] gives a speech saying that yes, we've [8:26] had really good years of growth, [8:28] productivity growth, all of that, but [8:30] the labor market is tight. I'm worried [8:32] about inflation. What does he do? [8:33] Starting August of 99, he starts raising [8:36] rates. [8:37] >> Yeah. [8:37] >> Right. And I think he raised rates by [8:39] 150, 175 basis points over the next 10 [8:42] months, something like that. And then I [8:44] think getting back to your point, I [8:46] wonder if you know that was the start of [8:47] like the Fed put. [8:49] >> Yeah. [8:49] >> You know, when he started dropping rates [8:50] after that and then we got the housing [8:52] bubble and all of that. [8:53] >> I think 87 is the origin of the Fed put. [8:56] It's really the first time in modern [8:58] history where the chairman of the Fed [9:02] specifically [9:04] >> does something and then says that it has [9:06] something to do with not allowing the [9:08] stock market turmoil to spill over into [9:10] the real economy. And it works. We don't [9:13] get a recession in ' 87. [9:15] >> We don't we don't have any problems in [9:16] the economy until like 1991 [9:19] with nothing to do with the crash of 87 [9:21] obviously. And I think that's then [9:24] becomes this new thing where the market [9:25] says, "Well, the Fed's not going to let [9:27] things get too out of hand because we [9:30] know they're paying attention to the [9:31] markets now." So that's sort of like to [9:33] me that's where that whole thing starts [9:35] and then it gets taken to extremes in [9:37] modern modern times. [9:38] >> Yeah. My favorite quote, I've got it [9:40] here. If I turn out to be particularly [9:42] clear, you've probably misunderstood [9:44] what I've said. And I think that's great [9:46] is he talks a whole bunch. Everybody [9:47] kind of nod everyone. Yeah. Greensman [9:49] said everyone kind of nods their heads. [9:50] Oh, okay. That's pretty good. And and [9:52] there you go. And and like you just [9:53] said, I believe the most recent [9:54] statement at 130 words. That was uh one [9:57] of the least we've ever seen outside of [9:59] like a panic cut, not panic cut, but a [10:01] cut during COVID. Then you got to go [10:02] back like Greenspan time. So again, and [10:04] and I know the image of the statement, [10:06] everything's read it out and crossed [10:08] out. I mean, that's apparently we're [10:09] going back to some of that Greenspan [10:10] period of being more to the point. [10:11] >> Cali hates this. So, our chief [10:13] strategist, uh, Cali Cox, yeah, [10:16] >> wrote a piece this week about less [10:18] transparency regardless of how you feel [10:21] about the new Fed chair. Less is not [10:23] more. [10:24] >> Um, because it's more uncertainty in the [10:27] markets and could lead to more [10:29] volatility. I don't know if I agree with [10:31] I understand her point and it's a [10:33] well-ritten piece. I just sort of feel [10:35] like the volatility is going to be here [10:37] with or without the transparency because [10:39] how often they change their minds. Um, [10:42] so [10:42] >> I think you have all the it's not just [10:44] one person at the Fed making the [10:46] decision. I think you could argue maybe [10:47] in Greenspan's time he had a lot of [10:49] power over the rest of the committee. [10:50] Now you have 12 members. [10:52] >> Yeah. [10:52] >> 19 and about 12 vote. You know, Walsh is [10:55] and that's the difference between, you [10:57] know, when War says we're going back to [10:58] the Greenspan era. No, Greenspan talked [11:00] about the economy a lot. He talked about [11:02] how he thinks about the economy a lot as [11:04] well. Walsh doesn't want to say anything [11:06] apparently. We'll see how that how long [11:07] that lasts. But the rest of them are out [11:09] there talking about [11:10] >> I think he wants he wants to preserve [11:13] the ability to react to higher frequency [11:16] data [11:17] >> meaning more real time is is one and two [11:21] he doesn't want to have to explain [11:22] everything they do [11:24] >> because if they have to change course or [11:26] do nothing when people think they're [11:28] going to do something he doesn't want [11:30] everything to be telegraphed in advance [11:33] and I'm not saying it's good or it's bad [11:34] I'm just saying that's going to be the [11:36] more profound difference. [11:38] >> He wants flexibility. [11:39] >> Yeah, he wants flexibility. I I I don't [11:42] hate the idea that if I have to explain [11:44] everything to you, I'm probably not [11:45] going to do a good job. [11:47] >> Uh and the Fed maybe got too explainy [11:51] >> in in in the post financial crisis. The [11:53] press conferences, I think, are a lot. [11:56] Um the 12 members going out and making [11:59] speeches for for a month in between FOMC [12:02] meetings, contradicting each other, that [12:04] might be a lot. and I think he wants to [12:06] just put an end to a lot of it. [12:07] >> So, a couple things. First off, it's a [12:09] small world cuz I hired Cali at LPL many [12:11] years ago. So, shout out to [12:12] >> Cal. All right. We love worked for her [12:14] for a long time. It's great. Um, [12:16] >> Son and I might disagree on this one [12:18] because we usually agree. I remember a [12:21] time when the Fed just was there and it [12:24] really wasn't that big of a deal. And [12:25] now it I I'm with you, Josh. Every time [12:28] you turn around, there's a different Fed [12:29] member giving their opinion on something [12:31] and I'm like, whoa, I didn't know that [12:33] person was part of the Fed. And I know a [12:34] guy like Sonu, he eats it up. He loves [12:36] it all and he, you know, [12:37] >> keeps me in a job. [12:37] >> It keeps him in a job. That's true, too. [12:39] I mean, I I I could live with less Fed, [12:41] I guess. I I do have a CMT behind my [12:43] name, chartered market technician. We'll [12:44] get into my charts and stuff. I mean, [12:46] I'd much rather just follow what the [12:47] market's doing than what some various [12:49] Fed member is saying they think's going [12:51] to happen when the Fed doesn't have the [12:52] best track record sometimes. [12:53] >> All right, let's talk about the market. [12:54] I have a question for you, boys. Ben and [12:56] I just got finished recording a podcast [12:58] with Derek Thompson and the meat of the [13:01] conversation was [13:02] >> is this a bubble? [13:04] >> Ryan, what would you say to that [13:05] question? [13:07] >> First off, I think you guys are almost [13:08] up to 500, right? Congratulations. [13:09] You're close, right? [13:12] >> I probably listen to 400 of them, give [13:14] or take. I mean, you guys are awesome. [13:15] Yeah. Um, no, don't think it's a bubble. [13:17] I mean, I know there's parts of the [13:19] market that feels that way. Uh, we can [13:22] get into the meat of this. We we will. [13:24] But the short answer is no. Um the [13:27] reality is these bull markets last [13:28] longer than you think. I mean, I came on [13:30] with you guys in February 2024. I looked [13:32] what we said. The title of it was [13:33] something along the lines of why 2024 [13:35] will still be good for the bulls, right? [13:36] That wasn't popular. I read the read the [13:37] comments on YouTube. Market's up 47% [13:39] since then. We went to you guys last [13:41] July. We I think you made a joke about [13:43] our weight. You said why to stay [13:44] overweight. I know what you were doing [13:45] with that title. But nonetheless, I [13:46] mean, it wasn't me. [13:49] >> I said that's a good title. That's a [13:50] good title. Why to stay overweight or [13:51] ways to stay overweight or something? [13:52] whatever it was, but we're up 17%. [13:54] >> Well, I did. I listened to you. I stayed [13:56] over with you. Go on. [13:57] >> Exactly. We all have. Um, and I think [14:00] we're still in this area where yes, [14:02] there's going to be volatility. The [14:03] market's growing. But reality is these [14:05] bull markets last longer than you think. [14:07] This bull market just cracked the eighth [14:10] longest since World War II. What in the [14:12] world does that mean? Looking at the [14:14] previous seven, right? The average [14:16] length of those, this one's about three [14:17] and a half years old, by the way, [14:18] starting October 2022. Um the average [14:21] length of those other seven was like [14:23] seven years. The shortest was like five [14:25] years. I mean [14:26] >> what are you measuring this from? The [14:27] low of the previous bare market. [14:29] >> Yes. And I know there's flaws very [14:31] unofficial. [14:32] >> Well down 20%. You have to pick a spot. [14:34] Bull markets end when there's a 20% [14:36] correction. Is that how you measure it? [14:37] >> Technically. Yes. That is exactly what [14:38] we're using and it's quantifiable and I [14:41] get there's flaws with this stuff. I [14:42] totally understand that. We had near [14:43] bare markets in 2011 2018 last year. We [14:47] get it. Um, but the reality is it's like [14:49] a cruise ship. So, I've described it, [14:51] right? Bull markets are hard to stop. [14:53] They're hard to turn around. And that's [14:55] like a cruise ship. Once they get past [14:57] that third year, they tend to keep [14:59] going. And this is something we've [15:00] talked about for a while. And there's [15:01] more to it than this. But just be aware. [15:03] We I mean, just literally, what is what [15:05] are we in July? June. So, let's say [15:07] about 15 months ago, most European [15:09] stocks just broke out to new highs from [15:11] levels they trade out in 2007. So to [15:14] think that okay we were just a year or [15:16] so of Europe finally doing something. Um [15:18] it's just going to end. No I mean we [15:20] getting in the way we manage a lot of [15:21] money like what makes I think so not a [15:22] little different. Yes we have a podcast. [15:24] Um oh I have a present about that. You [15:27] talk I have a present for your present. [15:30] I mean wait I got to hear the end of [15:31] this. [15:31] >> Oh I don't even talk about my present. I [15:33] don't present. [15:34] >> That was amazing. We could do this [15:36] earlier [15:38] talking about the podcast [15:39] >> right and managing money. [15:41] >> Yes. I'm so excited about the present [15:43] which I forgot to give you guys. [15:44] >> We manage a lot of money. Present. [15:46] >> Yeah. So money, [15:48] >> you know, we No, no, no. We talk about [15:50] the stuff and do it. But when you're [15:52] managing real money, Carson just cracked [15:53] 60 billion, like you said, and we manage [15:55] a lot of that. And um it's hard to [15:58] manage money. It's really hard. It's [16:00] really hard to manage money. It's really [16:02] hard to have an opinion. We try our best [16:03] to do both. And and I think what the [16:05] reality is we're not going to People [16:08] bash me a lot for being bullish. H [16:11] Twitter. Oh yes. I mean any tweet I do. [16:15] >> It's like the market's been down a [16:16] little bit. [16:16] >> 15% a year for 15 years. Trust me. [16:19] You've been bullish for a long time. [16:20] Credit. I mean Yeah. I mean so and Sonu [16:22] was one out there in 2023 saying there'd [16:24] be no recession. And I saw other reasons [16:26] to be bullish. But anyway, and I see [16:27] these things and you see like that cover [16:29] of the New Yorker with George Washington [16:32] all hung over, all beat up, says red, [16:33] white, and kind of blue. It's not like [16:35] there's excitement. Bull markets are [16:36] supposed to feel fun, you know, and this [16:38] one parts of it do. [16:40] >> Get us the present. Can I Can I say one [16:43] thing? So, there is We live in a bubble [16:45] culture [16:46] >> where everybody is so everybody's dying [16:49] to see bubbles everywhere. [16:50] >> And there's some [ __ ] going on in the [16:53] market that obviously smells bubbly. [16:56] Like, we all we all we all can smell it. [16:58] >> Um, I can't even talk. [17:01] >> It's so exciting. Wait, put a bit [17:04] of that. What do you got there? Indiana [17:06] Jones. [17:06] >> Hey, what is that? A rucks sack? What is [17:08] that? [17:10] >> You guys [17:13] see? [17:14] >> Oh, this is cute. Let me see. [17:17] >> Oh, [17:17] >> what do you think? [17:18] >> What do you think? [17:19] >> I need one, too. [17:20] >> I mean, there's a Carson logo there, but [17:22] fine. But fine. I love it. [17:23] >> Facts versus feelings is my favorite [17:25] podcast. The way you guys are very [17:27] >> We'll let you guys come. You guys are [17:28] >> us in the camera. [17:29] >> Love it. [17:30] >> All right. [17:31] >> All right. So, how quickly we forget. [17:33] You know what was a bubble? [17:36] >> What's that? [17:36] >> 2021. [17:37] >> 21. [17:39] I'm glad that an email an email reminded [17:41] us. It's like, guys, we just live [17:43] through a bubble. [17:44] >> Mhm. [17:45] >> In 2021, Apple, the best of the bunch, [17:49] fell 30%. Google 44. Amazon 56. Nvidia [17:55] 66. Netflix 75. [17:59] Meta 77. Arc the poster child 80. still [18:03] in a gigantic draw down. [18:05] >> We just had a bubble that popped [18:08] >> and we like pretend that that didn't [18:09] just happen and it was [18:10] >> the whole cycle. It was the whole bubble [18:12] cycle including the busted IPOs, [18:16] including the really bad ideas about [18:18] other asset classes that happened. We [18:20] had a whole thing. [18:21] >> I just wrote a piece uh yesterday titled [18:24] a tongue and cheek. [18:25] >> Hang on, Nicole. Put this in my [18:27] Rolls-Royce. [18:30] >> I brought a couple in yours or [18:31] Michael's. I got mine. I got mine. [18:33] >> Okay. Here. Hold on to this. [18:34] >> I actually have eight more in my bag for [18:36] the whole team. So, yes. [18:37] >> There you go. [18:38] >> Feel free and use it as a pillow. [18:40] >> So, what were we saying? [18:41] >> I don't know. No, I was I wrote the [18:44] piece tongue and cheek saying how I [18:46] learned to stop worrying and love the [18:48] bubble. [18:49] >> Got it. Yeah. Very good. [18:50] >> Very Doctor Strange Loian. [18:52] >> Okay. So, so, uh, it would, it's not [18:54] strange for us to have made the amount [18:57] of progress in stocks that we have [18:59] because we had the whole boom bust cycle [19:02] recently. People are anchored to 2009 as [19:05] being the big one [19:07] >> and they I guess they ignore all of the [19:10] volatility along the way since then and [19:12] a full-blown bare market in 2022 for [19:15] mostly in tech but elsewhere also. Okay. [19:18] So your view is this can continue and [19:22] but I know that there are always things [19:24] that you're watching for and and what [19:26] would change your mind I think would be [19:28] the big question. [19:28] >> I'll I'll go first. So more of a [19:30] technical point of view right 2021 yes [19:32] everyone's making money. We all have [19:34] money from the government day trading [19:37] gambling all that stuff. Uh it felt a [19:39] little crazy and then in the fourth [19:40] quarter 2021 consumer staples started to [19:44] rally a lot. They outperformed low [19:46] volatility led by a lot in the fourth [19:48] quart and not well JC was talking about [19:50] it and few technicians were talking [19:52] about it. Most people were just having [19:53] fun making money and then yes the war [19:56] happened and that you know obviously [19:58] contributed to a lot of it but still I [19:59] think the market was giving a warning [20:01] sign that something was changing under [20:03] the surface when you look at these [20:05] trends and these technical things. Um [20:07] and then you fast forward to right now. [20:10] I mean, equal weight consumer staples [20:12] relative to the S&P 500 just on Monday [20:14] hit like the lowest number, lowest level [20:16] in a long time. So, we're not seeing [20:18] that. We're not seeing low volume. I [20:20] assume he's got a lot of thoughts. Did [20:21] >> the rally in staples in in uh in 21 [20:25] coincide with the beginning of the rise [20:27] rise of interest rates. [20:30] >> It was before that. [20:31] >> It was before. [20:32] >> It was before that because before [20:33] >> the market sort of knew [20:35] >> that the Fed was going to have to do [20:37] something. [20:37] >> I think Yeah. inflation is a problem and [20:39] the Fed was late, [20:41] >> right? Okay. All right. That's [20:42] interesting. But there's no sign of [20:44] anything like that. [20:44] >> Let me offer one piece. Let me offer one [20:46] piece of evidence [20:47] >> for why this might be a bubble. And I I [20:49] for the record, I don't think this is a [20:50] bubble. But um if I were to point to one [20:51] thing, maybe it would be this. So Micron [20:54] reported yesterday, we'll get into the [20:55] numbers, which were outstanding. [20:57] >> Micron's market cap is about to pass [20:58] meta. Does that sound right? [21:01] >> Mhm. [21:01] >> Like literally what they're both 1.3 [21:03] billion. Well, this last quarter they [21:07] made more profits than Nvidia made a [21:09] year ago. [21:10] >> It's good business. [21:11] >> Yeah, if you can get it right. But I I [21:14] think it's actually, you know, I think [21:17] this can continue. I think there's [21:19] unlike 2021, there's a real economy [21:22] story here too, right? There's a [21:24] macroeconomic story here. You look at [21:26] even within the GDP data, you look at [21:28] information, technology, equipment plus [21:31] software, you know, that's almost 5% of [21:34] the economy, 5% of GDP. Few years back, [21:36] it was about 3%. That's a big increase [21:38] for a relatively small piece of the [21:41] economy. [21:41] >> Here's what the bears would say. We [21:43] stopped talking about the circular [21:45] financing schemes with Nvidia because [21:48] that was not a that was not didn't turn [21:49] out to be a great bearish trade. [21:51] However, things are only getting more [21:54] circular with Amazon now doing deals [21:56] with Open AI and it's like this click of [22:00] 10 or 12 companies. Meanwhile, those 10 [22:03] or 12 companies are turning over not [22:05] only all of their cash flow, but at this [22:07] point, most of their revenue to two [22:10] companies. One is in Taiwan and the [22:12] other one is uh Micron. And basically, [22:15] >> and a couple in South Korea, [22:16] >> right? So you have you have the 10 [22:18] biggest companies in the world saying [22:20] here's all ouring revenue for the next [22:22] three years. We're giving you guaranteed [22:24] deal. We're just going to give it to two [22:26] two or three companies in the in the Far [22:28] East for components that apparently are [22:31] so critical that one of those companies [22:33] is now the ninth largest stock in the [22:35] world. [22:35] >> But how is that a bare case? The bare [22:37] case is Micron's [22:40] incredible earnings and revenue growth [22:43] are predominantly coming from them being [22:45] a choke point and just raising prices. [22:48] Is not is not volume. They're not making [22:50] more. They can't. [22:51] >> Yeah. It's inflation, right? [22:53] >> Good. [22:53] >> Yeah. [22:53] >> Well, uh, [22:55] >> so they 60% plus growth in average [22:57] selling price. Are they going to do that [22:59] next year? [23:00] >> They said today, the year after. They [23:01] said, "We now expect supply demand [23:03] conditions for both DRAM and and NAND to [23:05] remain tight beyond calendar 2027." So [23:07] last night they reported 41.5 billion of [23:10] revenue up 74% quarter over quarter 364% [23:15] year-over-year. [23:16] >> Very bullish if you're micron. [23:18] >> So I chart chart kit showed the since [23:22] since January 2025 [23:24] the earnings uh the forward 12 month [23:27] forward earnings is up 1440%. [23:30] the stock is up 1300%. Like that sounds [23:33] like in line with what you would expect. [23:34] Investors pay up for growth. They're not [23:36] going to pay up for [23:37] >> you're getting profit growth [23:38] >> and they're getting it. [23:39] >> Yeah. But that the other side of the [23:41] coin is [23:42] >> that's not the question. The question is [23:43] is is it is it sustainable [23:47] and or will companies ultimately figure [23:50] out a way to do this and not pay as much [23:53] for for memory or not pay price [23:55] increases from here? Will companies use [23:58] their technological ingenuity to get [24:00] around these bottlenecks in the future? [24:02] >> The market is saying no right now. [24:03] >> Market saying they can't. [24:04] >> Market might be wrong, but we'll see. [24:05] >> Back to uh Greenspan, right? December [24:07] 5th, 1996 was the famous irrational [24:10] exuberance speech, which apparently he [24:11] came up the words ex irrational [24:13] exuberance in his bathtub. That's what [24:14] that's what they said. But [24:16] >> yeah, [24:16] >> the S&P 500 went up more than 100% the [24:19] next three years. Exactly. NASDAQ went [24:22] up over 300%. So, I know people have [24:24] heard this before, but it's good to [24:25] remember that. Yeah, the market was [24:26] overvalued then because he said it was [24:28] and a lot of people thought it was and [24:29] that's right when I started. So I I [24:31] don't remember it exactly but read a lot [24:32] of the history books and you look at the [24:34] things now. I mean again we titled our [24:36] outlook start of the year riding the [24:37] wave. Our midyear outlook comes out in a [24:39] couple weeks. It's still riding the [24:40] wave. Creative I know. Um you know but [24:42] when we look at it we still think it [24:44] makes sense to have exposure. We're [24:46] slightly overweight technology here. um [24:49] you know to just say it's a bubble maybe [24:51] but [24:52] >> I don't think the issue is that it's a b [24:53] so I don't think the issue is that it's [24:55] a bubble [24:56] >> okay [24:56] >> micron's 9.5 times earnings [25:00] >> not anymore it's way higher but keep [25:01] going [25:01] >> I don't think it is I don't I don't [25:03] think it is but I either either way if [25:05] it's 10 it's 11 I don't think the issue [25:07] is that it's a bubble I think the bigger [25:10] question is think about how fast things [25:12] are changing and we have short memories [25:16] like One year ago, there was a must own [25:20] stock. It wasn't Micron. You remember [25:22] what it was? [25:23] >> Everybody had to own it. It was the [25:24] consensus. [25:25] >> Palunteer. [25:26] >> Palunteer. [25:26] >> Okay. It's [25:27] >> down. How's that doing? [25:28] >> It's down 50%. [25:29] >> Right. [25:29] >> It's down It's down 100 points. 207 or [25:32] 107 in 9 months. [25:34] >> And this happens all the time. The good [25:37] news is the rotations in the market are [25:40] powerful enough that we get bailed out [25:43] >> because just as one group loses favor, [25:45] another group rises to take its place. [25:47] >> So the software stocks had been a drag [25:50] on the market, financials are making up [25:52] for it and now they're all at 52 week [25:55] highs. [25:55] >> Can I show you boys a chart? [25:56] >> Yeah. [25:57] >> Yeah. [25:57] >> John 19.2, please. All right. So since [26:01] 2018, anytime the rest of the market [26:06] outperformed the Mag 7, the market was [26:08] in a deep draw down, right? Makes sense. [26:11] >> Right now, over the last 27 days, the [26:14] 493 are outperforming the Mag 7 by 18%. [26:18] That's a gigantic spread. In fact, it's [26:19] the most that we've seen since 2018. [26:22] >> And the market is basically at an [26:23] all-time high. I cannot possibly think [26:26] of a more bullish development [26:27] >> that the MA 7 are absolutely breaking [26:30] down. Microsoft looks like death. [26:33] Microsoft relative to the spies is where [26:35] it was in 2019. All of the [26:37] outperformance in the last 7 years [26:39] goodbye. The fact that the market is [26:41] remaining as healthy as it is with [26:43] industrials ripping with regional banks [26:45] ripping and the max 7 getting their you [26:48] know what kicked in. I think that's [26:49] fantastically bullish. [26:50] >> You think rotations have been like the [26:52] most important factor? momentum is [26:54] actually doing really well despite mag 7 [26:57] is not momentum. [26:58] did [26:59] >> you know so you are seeing a lot of [27:00] dispersion [27:01] >> you know micron's 12% of the S&P 500 [27:04] momentum index but then this is where [27:06] things could be stretched right you look [27:08] at the excess performance of momentum [27:10] S&P 500 momentum over the S&P 500 last [27:13] 12 months [27:14] >> you look at the last 40 years it's at [27:16] the 95th percentile last three years [27:19] last three years it's at the 100th [27:20] percentile [27:21] >> right [27:21] >> right so momentum is definitely a [27:23] stretch and that gets to you know now it [27:25] can you know what stretch can continue [27:26] staying stretched [27:28] I wonder if we've ever seen momentum [27:31] this stretched where there was an actual [27:34] justification from earnings growth cuz I [27:38] could picture other times when momentum [27:41] was stretched but the quality wasn't the [27:44] quality wasn't there. Like in this case, [27:46] we're saying momentum is stretched and [27:48] then we have a company like Micron go [27:50] from a billion dollars to $24 billion in [27:52] quarterly earnings. And it's like, oh [27:54] yeah, momentum is stretched cuz this is [27:57] what these companies are doing. [27:58] >> But then it gets back to your question [27:59] as to how long can that profit growth [28:01] case? [28:02] >> Josh is so right cuz I think when people [28:05] hear the word momentum, it has a [28:07] negative connotation. Like they think of [28:08] junky. [28:09] >> These dummies are just chasing and [28:10] there's no fundamentals. think of [28:12] GameStop or they think of like uh Sam [28:14] Alman launched a nuclear reactor company [28:16] that's what they think is momentum and [28:18] then you look and it's Corning which has [28:20] been in business for 150 years and it's [28:23] like uh it's Caterpillar one of the top [28:27] momentum stocks in the market it's [28:29] 100-year-old company blue chip Dow stock [28:32] so when people hear momentum the [28:34] immediate assumption is this is going to [28:36] be some freaky biotech stuff or [28:39] >> u it's all semiconductors and it just [28:40] isn't It's large caps too, right? It's [28:43] one thing for small caps to increase 100 [28:45] 200% in a few months. [28:47] >> Yeah. [28:47] >> But now you're seeing that with your [28:49] microns and sandisks and you know [28:51] skynics. [28:52] >> By the way, I said micron was 1.3 [28:54] billion. I'm obviously I meant trillion. [28:55] It's a trillion. Trillion. [28:56] >> Trillion. It's a 1.3 trillion. [28:58] >> Let me ask you guys this. So I want to [28:59] show you. So just to sober up a little [29:01] bit. [29:02] >> Two charts. The first one from Warren [29:04] Pies chart 13. So Warren shows um he [29:07] says historically semis were priced as a [29:09] cyclical industry. As margins peaked, [29:11] price to sales ratios would fall. Over [29:13] the past year though, semi multiples [29:14] have exploded as margins hit all-time [29:17] highs. Either the industry has become [29:18] less cyclical or it is a sign of [29:21] exuberance. And it better well be the [29:23] former because the next chart shows the [29:26] evolution of the global fund manager [29:28] survey that Bank of America does. And [29:30] we've never seen anything like this. Uh [29:33] the top line [29:33] >> it's everyone says not everyone the most [29:36] people have said long global semis are [29:39] the most crowded trade. There's nothing [29:41] else on this list that's even close. I [29:44] guess uh US growth stocks in 2020, but [29:47] everybody everybody everybody is all the [29:49] way in on this trade. [29:50] >> And it's not just semis. You mentioned [29:52] industrials. We looked at all the [29:53] constituents of every single sector. And [29:56] I think there's a chart in there, but [29:58] looked at the, you know, weighted [30:00] average, how many of them are correlated [30:03] with tech, [30:04] >> right? And even for industrials, you [30:06] know, more than 40% 50% have a large [30:10] correlation with tech. [30:12] >> Okay. [30:12] >> Same thing with utilities. [30:14] >> Yeah. It's all one theme. [30:15] >> Yeah. It's all But then you get out into [30:17] sectors like healthcare and there's [30:18] zero. [30:19] >> Right. [30:19] >> And healthcare looks great. [30:20] >> Yeah. Yeah. Right. Right. That's the [30:22] other especially recently. [30:23] >> You guys do you guys worry about crowded [30:25] trades? [30:27] >> Yes. I mean I think you I love looking [30:29] at sentiment, right? If everybody's [30:30] thinking alike, somebody isn't thinking [30:31] general patent. So there is some [30:33] something there. But I do want to rewind [30:35] for a second. You're talking about [30:36] rotation. On Tuesday, the S&P was down [30:38] 1.4%. Yet 285 stocks in the S&P 500 were [30:42] higher on Tuesday. Only five times going [30:45] back over 20 years have we seen a day [30:46] where the S&P was down more than 1%, but [30:48] more stocks were up than down. So we all [30:50] understand why that was a day tech was [30:52] imploded, but other stuff did well. Just [30:55] yesterday, we're recording this [30:56] Thursday. Just yesterday, Wednesday, [30:57] markets flatish, down a tad. 315 stocks [31:00] in the S&P 500 were higher, right? And [31:01] today, I know we're not done doing this. [31:03] Market's down a tad, at least S&P is, [31:05] but there's still more stocks up. So, [31:07] it's it is I think it's encouraging this [31:09] rotation we're seeing. And I know [31:10] everyone on TV says it. It's kind of [31:11] boring, but for listeners, I think it's [31:12] really a good thing because yes, you get [31:15] excited about the gains we've seen, the [31:17] big IPOs, tech's doing amazing, [31:18] momentum's 99th percentile, this and [31:20] that. But to still have a diversified [31:22] portfolio and own things like we've been [31:24] saying for a while, people didn't like [31:25] it when we were saying it a month ago, [31:26] but industrials, financials kind of, you [31:28] know, have like a paired trade or [31:29] barbell trade. Yeah. You got your tech [31:31] over here, but they own some other [31:32] cyclical things. [31:32] >> They have low volatility. [31:34] >> Yeah. Low. [31:34] >> Nobody wants that [ __ ] [31:35] >> Yeah. Nobody wants [31:36] >> given your correlation point. [31:38] >> So, I own tech. I own industrials. I own [31:42] utilities. [31:42] >> It's all tech. Yeah. [31:43] >> That's all they have. [31:44] >> Hey, Mr. Kramer, am I diversified? Like, [31:47] obviously, I would No, right. And that's [31:49] why when we started, you know, the year, [31:52] we were riding on momentum. We still [31:54] are, but the more momentum gets [31:56] stretched, we are more comfortable [31:57] holding things like low vault. Yeah. [31:59] >> Well, I like that you're saying that [32:01] because this is where we are in the [32:02] market. Josh, you're going to love this [32:04] one. [32:04] >> Listed options on the Roundill T-Rex. [32:08] >> Oh, boy. [32:09] >> 2x long DRAM daily target ETF are now [32:12] available. So, let me stop that one more [32:14] time. The boys at Roundtill launched the [32:17] greatest ETF of all time, most [32:19] successful launch of all time, [32:21] >> maybe including B uh IBIT, I don't know, [32:23] whatever. DRAM, genius, launched it at [32:26] the perfect time. It's now 20 billion [32:27] assets. Maybe more credit to them. So [32:29] then they launched RAM, which is if you [32:31] if some DRAM is good, 2X is better. Why [32:34] not? [32:34] >> Okay. But now there's options on the 2X. [32:38] >> I could buy calls on the 2X. [32:39] >> Yes. [32:40] >> Well, why what am I talking to you guys [32:41] for? This sounds like something. [32:43] >> You could you could buy calls on the 2X [32:45] DM if we are not near some sort of a [32:48] local top. Like I know this [ __ ] could [32:49] last a lot longer. There's a lot of [32:51] enthusiasm here. So I have a you know [32:54] theory that if we do see rotation [32:57] sustained rotation not just week in or [32:59] two weeks or anything if you see a [33:00] rotation for about 6 months tech is not [33:02] doing well let's say tech is flat for [33:04] the rest of the year and your healthcare [33:06] comes back healthcare is outperforming [33:08] financials outperforming maybe even comm [33:10] services to a degree right I think then [33:13] the AI trade is done I it's sort of like [33:16] even same thing [33:17] >> but what's the AI trade all this whole [33:19] group of [33:19] >> stocks yes this whole momentum basically [33:21] if you momentum. It's basically an AI [33:23] trade right now. [33:24] >> But you know what's but Nvidia is not [33:25] working at all. [33:27] >> Well, they're still up about what 10% 8. [33:30] It's not [33:32] >> it's not working. I mean it's it's [33:34] sideways [33:34] >> but it's you know you have Micron in [33:36] there. You look at the momentum index [33:38] it's Micron Alphabet. You could argue [33:41] alphabet's not really working either. [33:43] But then you know number five down the [33:45] list is Lamb Research. [33:47] >> Mhm. [33:47] >> Right. And then you have SanDisk. You [33:49] have AMD. [33:51] It's it's all those names. [33:52] >> It's all those things. Paradine, KLA, [33:55] a very long list. [33:56] >> Um, where does the puck go then if if [33:59] these stocks take a break? [34:01] >> If these stocks cool off, and it's been [34:02] a really long time since they have. [34:04] >> Um, but we're seeing the hyperscalers [34:06] take a break now and it's been about 6 [34:08] months. So, let's say these stocks take [34:10] the the second half of the year off. [34:13] Where do people go? [34:14] >> Small caps. [34:15] >> I know you I know you're watching the [34:16] ratio. [34:17] >> Yeah, they've already gone to small [34:18] caps, I guess you could argue. Uh, I [34:19] don't think most people realize [34:20] >> it could be it could be early. [34:21] >> Yeah. I mean, the Russell 2 is up 20% [34:23] for the year, give or take. I might [34:25] close an all-time high at least. Uh, S&P [34:27] 600 is going to close an alltime high. I [34:28] think today that they were doing this. [34:30] >> Ryan, you're a technician. I'm going to [34:31] hold up my computer. That's IWM spy. [34:33] >> Yeah. [34:34] >> As I'm looking. [34:34] >> Yeah. On a relative basis, it's breaking [34:36] out. Also, if you look at the S&P 600 [34:38] advanced decline, so it's a cumulative [34:40] base. I mean, stocks going up versus [34:41] down every single day. Just yesterday on [34:44] Wednesday, that closed an all-time high [34:45] along with price. The way I learned it a [34:47] long time ago, breath leads price. So, [34:49] we are seeing plenty of market breath in [34:51] small caps. Why is that? Well, community [34:52] banks are breaking out. Like Josh, you [34:54] just said, regional banks are strong. [34:55] Biotech's going crazy. Those are big [34:57] components to small caps. Um, so I think [34:59] again, it's all part of this. Let's say [35:02] the AI large cap takes a break. [35:04] >> Yeah, [35:04] >> I don't think that's crazy, you know, [35:06] and I think it's important. [35:07] >> It would be weird if it doesn't take a [35:08] be weird if it didn't and and you [35:10] probably would want it to take a little [35:11] bit of a break and but to see the [35:12] leadership coming from these other areas [35:14] and again it's more I mean if small caps [35:16] are going up again call me old fashioned [35:17] I think that's usually a good thing [35:18] because they are a little more domestic [35:20] by nature there's there's a lot more [35:21] small caps in our large caps that's why [35:22] again with the portfolio you should have [35:24] a little bit of everything in there [35:25] don't try to be a hero we're still [35:26] overweight equities [35:28] >> um [35:29] >> and overweight momentum to an extent [35:31] >> overweight and overweight equities [35:33] >> how many financial adviserss work at [35:35] Carson [35:35] >> we have over 600 financial adviserss in [35:37] I believe 44 states How many do you guys [35:39] are you guys able to talk markets with [35:41] on a given like let's say a monthly [35:43] basis [35:45] >> probably every Monday morning we have a [35:48] call with and what about 150 [35:51] >> so all right so so their clients so the [35:54] advisor's clients are doing very well [35:55] right now we're happy [35:57] >> what kinds of questions are you getting [36:00] ner are you getting any nervous [36:02] questions from clients rel relayed by [36:05] the advisor like it's up so much what do [36:07] we [36:08] The most recent question of the most [36:10] popular one up like last week was how do [36:12] we get into SpaceX? [36:13] >> Okay. Well, that makes sense. Okay. Are [36:15] they still asking? [36:18] >> As much as you want. [36:19] >> Well, wait till Anthropic and Open AIO. [36:21] It's not done yet. [36:22] >> Yeah. [36:22] >> But the questions are still skepticism. [36:25] >> Well, [36:26] >> it's not how much should I buy, [36:28] >> right? [36:28] >> For the most part. Or what do you think? [36:29] >> I know Lizanne Saunders has said this [36:31] before and I'm going to say it as well, [36:32] but you know, I get to travel and [36:34] present for adviserss and clients, room [36:35] full of people. You do your dog and pony [36:37] show for 45 minutes and it's 15 Q&A. [36:40] I've never in the last couple years been [36:42] asked, hey, this is this is pretty good [36:44] out there. How high is this going to go? [36:46] It's always the dollar is going to lose [36:48] reserve currency status. Oh my goodness, [36:50] look at all the debt we have. We can [36:51] talk about that stuff, too. The interest [36:52] rates, all all that the standard stuff [36:54] you think because that's what you see [36:55] on, you know, TV or you're reading [36:57] about. Um it again, it just comes back [37:00] to it doesn't feel like people are [37:02] really enjoying. [37:02] >> But wait, hold on. But I think the thing [37:04] the point that you just made is really [37:05] important. I don't think we're ever [37:06] going back to that world where everybody [37:08] is cheerleading. I think the the the way [37:11] the media and social media and [37:13] everything and attention works, it's [37:15] never going to be everybody's all in. [37:16] It's just never going to happen. So, if [37:17] that's what you're waiting for as your [37:19] signal to okay, now everybody's in, [37:21] >> it's over. It doesn't work that way [37:23] anymore. People will fight this the [37:25] entire way. [37:25] >> Yeah. [37:26] >> I think you get the other question like, [37:27] oh, is the dollar losing reserve status? [37:29] Should I buy gold? Right? So those are [37:31] very common questions we [37:32] >> but you could have gotten those you [37:34] could have gotten those 15 years ago. [37:36] >> I think the bearish bearishness comes it [37:38] manifests in that sort of way. [37:40] >> What do you guys make of the gold and [37:41] silver unwind? This has been like [37:43] violent. [37:44] >> I think that's a sign of real yields [37:46] going up, the Fed becoming or perceived [37:48] to be more hawkish when you talk about [37:50] whether you think they'll raise rates or [37:52] not. But yeah, I think real yields going [37:54] up that's hit gold and I would argue [37:56] maybe even crypto for that matter. I [37:58] know I know gold ran into the war but [38:00] since the war started officially gold is [38:02] down quite a bit. [38:02] >> I think it was an inflation story and [38:04] inflation picked up suddenly everyone [38:05] was like they priced out no more two [38:07] rate cuts [38:08] >> and now they're pricing in rate hikes. I [38:10] I think that's a you know headwind for [38:13] gold. [38:13] >> So in our tactical models we run we [38:15] added some go a gold allocation on I [38:17] think it was March 31st 2023 [38:20] right after the regional bank crisis. We [38:22] we we didn't look at it like um [38:24] >> we did like gold would do better than [38:25] bonds. That's kind of how we looked at [38:26] it. So you got a 60/40 bucket. We're [38:28] probably 68 to 69% equities and then [38:31] call 31 32% other stuff and we added [38:34] some gold there. Obviously it's worked [38:35] really well. [38:36] >> You took from the bond allocation to add [38:38] to gold. [38:38] >> Well, do you remember how we did it [38:39] exactly? [38:39] >> Yeah. Well, we have a little bit of cash [38:41] allocation. So technically it's even but [38:43] we wanted protection. We didn't want to [38:45] add duration. It's a long treasury. So [38:47] we said, okay, what's another long [38:49] duration asset that can protect the [38:51] portfolio in a crisis? Gold. And I think [38:54] we talked about this last year with you, [38:55] just saying we thought rates would stay [38:56] a little bit higher. We thought the [38:58] economy do a little better. We've been [38:59] saying this is an inflationary growth [39:01] environment. Inflation might run three, [39:02] three and a half% this year, but economy [39:03] is going to do well. I mean, some of [39:04] this stuff's playing out now. We [39:06] actually just sold um some of our gold [39:09] allocation in our tactical models for [39:10] the first time again since we had way [39:12] back a long time ago. And it's like gone [39:14] straight down every day and Sonia was [39:15] one pounding the table saying, "Look at [39:17] real yields here going higher. You know, [39:19] there's something going on here." And [39:20] that gold's not going to like that. [39:21] Yeah, [39:21] >> and that's clearly what has happened in [39:23] a big way. Now, I see gold, you know, I [39:25] think it cracked 4,000. People are [39:27] starting to dog it a little bit. Maybe [39:28] there's something there, but it's still [39:30] it's still an area that um makes sense [39:31] from a strategic point of view to have a [39:33] little bit, but you know, there [39:34] >> we do have it in our strategic [39:35] portfolios a little bit, but we almost [39:38] sold most of it out in our tactical [39:40] portfolio. [39:40] >> I want to do one of your charts. John, [39:42] can I have chart 8? You're showing IT [39:44] equipment and software investment as a [39:46] proportion of GDP [39:48] is now larger than during the dotcom era [39:52] peak. The charitable way of thinking [39:54] about this is that the portion of [39:58] digital activity in the economy is [40:01] significantly larger. So we shouldn't be [40:04] surprised to see equipment and software [40:06] investments be much higher than back [40:09] then. But maybe it's not in absolute [40:12] terms, it's in a proportion of GDP [40:14] terms. So I I don't know how how would [40:16] you think about whether or not this [40:18] >> cuz that in and of itself makes me want [40:20] to sell Dell [40:21] >> which is one of the best stocks of the [40:23] year. I don't know h how would you think [40:24] about this? But it it's basically [40:26] investment spending, right? Investment [40:28] in information processing equipment [40:31] including things like chips and then [40:32] investment into software, right? So all [40:34] this is investment and then so you got [40:36] within GDP you have two sorts of [40:38] investment broadly speaking. You have uh [40:40] business investment which is part of [40:41] mostly the stuff and then you have [40:43] residential investment. During the [40:44] housing bubble you see that yellow line [40:46] screaming all the way up to six and a [40:48] half. [40:48] >> Look at it's like half a McDonald's [40:49] logo. [40:51] You may see the other. Okay. you hungry. [40:55] >> Well, that's more extreme than both the [40:56] tech bubbles [40:57] >> that show, [40:57] >> but it was a relative movement, the [40:59] delta, right? How fast did it go up? And [41:01] I think the green line going up as fast [41:03] as it is right now, that's the key [41:06] rather than the level of it. [41:07] >> Okay. If we get if we see [41:10] >> and I think it continues going back to [41:11] the point I going back even connecting [41:13] to markets, will this continue? I think [41:15] once earnings season comes out, you [41:17] know, during like July, [41:19] >> these hyperscalers will tell us, "Oh, [41:20] we're spending even more on this stuff." [41:22] Could this green line match the peak of [41:26] that residential bubble which was it [41:28] looks uh 6 and a half% of GDP was [41:31] residential housing in uh what is that [41:35] >> 200 [41:35] >> 2006 2005 yeah [41:38] >> could could could this conceivably get [41:40] there [41:40] >> maybe I I mean what's not included here [41:42] is data centers construction related to [41:45] data centers that's not included [41:46] >> that's not even in this that's not in [41:47] this [41:47] >> so what is this [41:48] >> this is IT equipment computers things [41:51] like just buying servers. [41:52] >> Yeah. And then software too. [41:55] >> So the construction of the data center [41:56] is not [41:57] >> that's separate. That that's you add [41:58] that we're starting to [42:00] >> So don't you think it's remarkable that [42:02] the economy has been as resilient as it [42:04] is with the yellow line residential [42:07] spending? Absolutely. In an ice age like [42:09] what if what if we get a little bit of a [42:12] comeback in housing? [42:15] >> Well, that that's the goal with you know [42:17] keeping rates low. I guess Wars talked [42:19] about it, right? He says, you know, he [42:21] thinks rates are tight if you look at [42:23] the housing market. [42:25] >> Yeah, they're I mean they're definitely [42:27] restrictive. [42:28] >> They're restrictive [42:28] >> of of at least transactions. [42:30] >> Um I want to do another chart of yours. [42:33] >> Chart 11. [42:35] >> This is interesting. [42:36] >> I imagine you guys have an emerging [42:38] markets allocation, equity allocation. [42:41] What you're showing here is emerging [42:42] market earnings forecasts have risen [42:44] even faster than in the United States. [42:47] Um what's That's Bloomberg. [42:50] >> So, what's the what's what's the tale of [42:52] this chart? What are we learning from [42:54] this? [42:54] >> Oh, it's same memory chips. [42:56] >> Just just how global Samsung how global [42:57] it is. [42:58] >> TSMC. It's that AI trade. [43:00] >> Are you surprised? Are you surprised to [43:02] see uh emerging market stocks doing what [43:05] they're doing this year or? [43:07] >> No, once you break it down, most of it [43:08] is driven by South Korea and Taiwan. [43:11] >> Okay. [43:11] >> India struggling. [43:12] >> We're getting a lot of lift from from [43:14] again the AI capex over stocks. [43:17] >> Yeah. I'll say this like two years ago I [43:20] would be a little surprised because you [43:22] know I used to think of emerging markets [43:24] in the old days like a lot of commodity [43:26] based things and commodities done pretty [43:28] well but clearly it's been more of the [43:29] AI trade. Now John I we kind of hinted [43:31] this I don't know the number but the one [43:32] about the June swoon we sent that chart [43:34] to you the June swoon [43:36] >> it's it's incredible when you think [43:39] about June historically isn't that great [43:42] of a month. Okay we all know that during [43:44] a midterm year it's the worst month of [43:45] the year. Okay that's fine. And it's the [43:47] second half of June when the trouble [43:48] happens. And sure enough, right on quue, [43:50] I mean, like right on quue, this is [43:52] happening. And you guys should mention [43:53] July. Sony just mentioned July earnings. [43:55] >> You know, uh, stock traders all, Mr. [43:58] Hirsh, there we go. Jeff Hirs been all [44:00] over this. He says, you know, this June [44:01] swoon is actually a good thing because [44:03] you get some selling, you get some [44:04] weakness out of the way, and then you [44:06] get into July. Now, you can pick a [44:08] reason why. I think it's because of [44:09] earnings. The last 20 years, July has [44:11] been by far the best month. I think it's [44:12] higher either 12 at 13 of the past years [44:14] or 13 of the 14 13 of the 14 past years. [44:18] Whatever it is, we get to earning season [44:20] in July, you get this little June swing [44:22] in late July. Then you get your higher [44:24] movement like Sonu said and we've been [44:26] thinking we're probably going to get [44:28] more good news on earnings. I mean, it [44:29] just is what it is. I mean, I I know the [44:31] historic beats we just had three months [44:33] ago. [44:33] >> I love you to apologize. It is what it [44:35] is. [44:35] >> Yes. It's just like, you know, uh but [44:38] but those are [44:39] >> record earnings. It is what it is. How [44:40] dare you say and then profit margins. I [44:43] don't know if we mentioned the margins [44:45] on Micron when we started this [44:47] conversation but was 84% or 85%. They [44:50] said next one will be 84%. That's [44:51] unheard of. [44:52] >> Dude, the revenue the revenue is 41 [44:54] billion. The operating expenses are like [44:56] 2 billion. [44:56] >> Yeah. Yeah. Um but yeah, [44:58] >> I mean obviously there's more expenses, [44:59] but that's it's unbelievable what is [45:02] happening with this business. There's I [45:03] mean we've never seen anything like [45:04] this. A year ago, not I'm sorry. Back in [45:07] April, I asked Chart Kid, "Hey, this is [45:09] like wild [ __ ] Show me Micron's [45:12] earnings over the last 12 months." And [45:14] in April of 2026, [45:17] in March of the year prior, earnings [45:19] were $9 a share [45:20] >> and then they were 86. And that was 3 [45:22] months ago, and now they're 132. Like, [45:25] we've never seen something I never seen [45:27] anything like this. [45:27] >> A step function, right? Yeah. [45:29] >> What did you make of uh how much stock [45:31] they're going to buy back? And I think [45:33] they retired a big chunk of debt. They [45:35] had like 14 billion in debt. [45:37] >> They bought back five billion of it. Uh [45:39] retired. I mean, at least I guess the [45:41] the answer is not only these companies [45:44] seeing record results, they seem to be [45:47] being somewhat responsible with it. I [45:49] don't know if a buyback is the smartest [45:50] thing to do. [45:50] >> I don't think they did any buybacks [45:51] recently, but they were asked on the [45:52] call. [45:53] >> No, they authorized they authorized a [45:55] new one. [45:56] >> Nvidia announced a dividend increase [45:58] last time, right? [45:59] >> So, they were asked a lot about their [46:00] capital um about their capital program. [46:02] Amber, I don't know if I just thought [46:03] about this, but Commander Zerum and [46:04] Blood Diamond, I'm sure you guys are [46:05] very familiar with that movie. Um, he [46:07] just had so many dimes he didn't know [46:08] what to do with all of them. It's sort [46:09] of like, what do these companies do with [46:10] all of the cash that they're producing, [46:11] they have no idea what to do with it. [46:13] It's it's almost ridiculous to buy back [46:14] the stock. But one of the analysts was [46:16] saying just buy back 10% of the float. [46:18] Like, just do it now. Like, what? Why [46:19] not? [46:20] >> It's only some of them, too. Most of [46:21] them actually, if you I had a chart in [46:23] there showing equity supply, that's [46:25] actually reversed. We're net equity [46:28] supply is now positive. [46:30] >> Let's talk about this Q1. Here we What [46:31] are we looking at? Sona. [46:32] >> Yeah, this is uh this is from the Fed [46:34] equity issuance. [46:35] >> Is this a headwind? [46:37] >> It's got to be. [46:37] >> You know, I don't know if it's a [46:38] headwind, but you're you know, you're [46:40] increasing supply. So, normally [46:42] >> for the first time in 26 years, [46:45] >> well, 2021 was positive. [46:47] >> That was the that was the IPO boom boom. [46:49] Yes. [46:50] >> All right. But we've basically been in a [46:52] situation where floats have been [46:53] shrinking. [46:54] >> Companies been buying back stock, [46:56] borrowing to buy back stock. [46:57] >> So, buybacks are dead. John, go to [47:00] chart. My god, you boys, we got a lot of [47:02] charts [47:02] >> and this is going to increase because Q2 [47:04] you're going, you know, SpaceX and you [47:07] know [47:07] >> this is a crazy visualization. It's [47:09] gonna go higher. John 20 [47:10] >> gonna go higher. Yeah. [47:11] >> So Bloomberg did a chart big tech but [47:13] disappearing buybacks. Alphabet, [47:16] >> Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon. The only [47:18] one that is buying back shares right now [47:19] are Microsoft. And you got to figure [47:20] that that's probably going to zero too. [47:22] >> Mhm. [47:22] >> Um, how is this not a headwind? They [47:25] were buying back a lot of the stock, [47:27] guys. Microsoft is in a 35% tradon. Of [47:29] course, you could argue it already is. [47:31] We We've talked a lot about the MAG 7, [47:32] how much it's underperformed. [47:33] >> I mean, Google just had, you know, $80 [47:35] billion, right? That same week that [47:37] SpaceX came and raised [47:40] they raised 80 billion in equities. [47:41] >> Uh SKHix is going to do a $29 billion, [47:46] I guess, reo [47:48] here in the United States, right? [47:50] >> So, they have a publicly traded company [47:51] in Korea. They're going to issue like [47:54] $30 billion worth of stock here. That's [47:56] >> so that No, not ADRs. A listing here. [47:59] >> Oh, really? Wow. [48:00] >> Yeah. [48:00] >> I can't wait to trade options on the [48:02] double [48:02] >> because they already have I think they [48:03] already have ADRs. This is like we're [48:05] listing I forget if it's the New York [48:07] Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ, but they [48:09] are going to drop another 30 billion [48:11] worth of memory stock on US investors. [48:14] Like I think it's imminent. Um, so we [48:17] went from the stock market is shrinking. [48:20] Everyone's grabbing for whatever equity [48:22] exists out there. Now the flows have [48:24] reversed. That was a real [48:25] >> growing the pie of available shares. [48:27] What do you think? [48:27] >> That was a real cash on the sidelines. [48:30] The cash on the sidelines was cash with [48:32] corporations, especially the big mega [48:35] cap tech companies. That was a cash on [48:37] the sidelines. And what did they do with [48:38] the cash? Bought equity. [48:39] >> Right? [48:40] >> Now you think about that cash is no [48:42] longer there. It's going to data [48:43] centers. So there is a real economy [48:44] thing happening. They're spending it. [48:46] They're investing. That money is going [48:47] to other companies. That's their [48:49] profits, right? But you're losing, you [48:53] know, [48:53] >> is that supply responsible in part, I [48:55] know it's new, responsible in part for [48:59] what could be a continued shrink of the [49:01] multiple that investors are willing to [49:04] pay? Like theoretically, there's more [49:05] shares they could buy, they could invest [49:07] in. Why would they pay up for just a [49:09] small handful of companies? [49:11] >> Possibly. I mean, you know, then you [49:13] think about like EPS, right? [49:15] >> What happens to EPS? I mean, you know, [49:17] if the number of shares are going up. [49:20] Yeah, you know, less earnings per share. [49:23] >> Yeah, exactly. [49:24] >> All right, let me show you guys this. [49:25] So, a couple of weeks ago, we showed a [49:27] chart the amount of market cap coming [49:31] >> between SpaceX, Open Eye, and Anthropic [49:34] is more than all of the combined from 97 [49:37] to the top. And that was a true IPO [49:40] mania. John, chart 23 if you will. So, [49:43] chart Kid looked at the aggregate IPO [49:46] proceeds. So not market cap adjusted but [49:49] the amount of money that actually came [49:51] to the market because we're talking [49:52] about supply right. So how much money do [49:54] these companies actually raise as a [49:56] percentage of the market cap at the [49:58] beginning of the year and we are not [50:01] through um we are we have not seen open [50:03] AAI entropic but we are like onetenth of [50:06] where we were in the 90s mania. So 0.18% [50:12] of the S&P 500's market cap at the [50:15] beginning of the year has come through [50:18] new issuance. Now if you look at the uh [50:21] market cap adjusted next chart please it [50:24] looks a little bit more like what you [50:26] would suspect. [50:26] >> Yeah, [50:27] >> right. It looks a little bit higher and [50:28] if we get open anthropic it's it is [50:30] going to approach the 90s. Like let's [50:31] just be real. [50:32] >> Then you see 99 2000 in there with the [50:35] highest bars. [50:35] >> So it's going to it's going to approach [50:37] it but I think you do have to adjust. [50:39] Mhm. [50:40] >> Yeah. [50:40] >> Or normalize it. Yeah. What we call [50:42] denominator blindness, right? If I talk [50:43] about the numerator, we'll talk about [50:44] denominator. [50:45] >> But that's the question. It's like can [50:46] the market [50:47] >> So you don't you don't seem to be [50:49] particularly concerned about the growth [50:51] and issuance. You It sounds like [50:54] >> you see it as um you guys it sounds as [50:58] though you see it as okay fine, but the [51:00] money being raised from all of this is [51:02] going right into the real economy. [51:03] >> Is that that's the the positive way to [51:05] think about it? [51:06] >> And profits. Yeah. [51:07] >> Okay. And it goes back to, you know, [51:10] we've sort of thrown the towel in on [51:12] timing it. It could be a bubble. Maybe 5 [51:15] years from now, who knows? Some we may [51:17] look back in the spirit and say it's a [51:18] bubble. But right now, investing, it's [51:20] like that's meaningless. [51:21] >> Also, a a lot of the people that are [51:23] negative about this are the same people [51:25] who said, "I don't like financial [51:27] engineering." [51:28] >> True. [51:28] >> Well, this is the opposite. Now, now [51:32] we're robbing from the stock market to [51:34] create jobs. You don't like this either? [51:36] You know what's so maddening about this? [51:37] Right now we're living through history [51:39] as investors and it's really fun and [51:41] exciting [51:42] >> and [51:43] it feels like we should know what's [51:45] going to happen next, doesn't it? Like [51:46] doesn't it feel like wait, how do you [51:47] how do you four guys not know that this [51:49] is a bubble? Morgan Stanley just said [51:51] that Tesla's revenue could hit $3.4 [51:53] trillion by 2040. How do you guys not [51:56] know it's a bubble? [51:57] >> And I'm sorry, future listener in five [51:59] years, but I don't I don't know. [52:01] >> Right. Yeah. No, we've thrown the towel [52:03] at like we can't time it. So then that's [52:06] why we like we want to ride that wave [52:08] with momentum but also the more momentum [52:11] keeps going up like this we want to [52:13] increase the size of our diversifiers [52:15] too. [52:15] >> Do you worry about inflation? [52:17] >> Yes. Flattening yield curve [52:20] >> always. He's always worried about [52:22] inflation. [52:22] >> I don't mean generally you worry about [52:24] it. I mean right now do you see that if [52:26] you're not worried about issuance of [52:28] equity which I totally get the argument. [52:31] Is this is this the real thing to to be [52:34] focused on? Do you think? [52:36] >> We do. You know, at the start of the [52:37] year, we were thinking inflation was [52:39] broadening out. Sony looks at 178 core [52:42] components or components of the core [52:43] PCE. This is before the war started and [52:45] we were seeing things broaden out and [52:47] then the war obviously started and [52:48] inflation did what it did, but you still [52:49] look at core PC and it's still trending [52:52] higher, right? It's not just about [52:54] services. It's not just about goods. [52:56] There's a AI bottleneck that's also in [52:59] pushing. [52:59] >> See that charge? 29. [53:00] >> That's like Micron's margin expansion is [53:03] Apple's inflation. [53:04] >> Yeah. [53:04] >> All right. So, so Apple had a horrendous [53:07] day today. [53:07] >> Right there. Yes, it did. Yeah. [53:09] >> Apple fell six, seven, right? What? Six [53:11] or seven%. [53:11] >> 6%. [53:12] >> Apple fell 6% is the biggest one of the [53:14] biggest stocks in the world fell 6%. [53:16] That's a lot of market cap. [53:17] >> That's directly related to them uh keep [53:20] this chart up. That's directly related [53:22] to them telling uh the public, hey, uh [53:26] prices are going up for consumer [53:28] >> uh technology. Wouldn't you think that [53:30] the price would rise on that? [53:31] >> So what so what is this exactly? [53:33] >> This is computer. This is the personal [53:34] consumption expenditures index for [53:36] computer software accessories. Things [53:38] like your tokens and stuff would be [53:40] represented here. [53:41] >> So this is the growing profit margin of [53:43] the companies that are selling chips. [53:45] >> It's the same coin. It's just the other [53:46] side of that coin [53:47] >> and Apple's customers are going to pay [53:48] for it. [53:48] >> Yeah. [53:49] >> But that's inflation. [53:50] >> That's inflation. I mean as real as [53:52] inflation. [53:52] >> It's like one company's margin expansion [53:54] is somebody else's inflation. [53:55] >> Okay. And this all comes. [53:56] >> Is it alarmist to like look at that and [53:59] say, "Oh boy." Or look at what Apple [54:01] said. Or is there a mitigating factor? [54:03] What do you think? [54:06] >> To me, there's mitigating factors. I [54:07] mean, it's it's it strikes you when you [54:09] look at that. I mean, I'm I'm kind of a [54:10] simple person. I like to look at two [54:12] things end of the day that I think will [54:13] help me understand what's going on in [54:15] the market. First is advanced decline [54:16] lines. Second are the credits markets, [54:18] right? Advanced decline lines are [54:20] literally like hitting all-time highs. [54:21] Time we're doing this on small caps, on [54:22] midcaps, S&P 500 is close. the um New [54:25] York Stock Exchange common stock only is [54:28] very close at an all-time high. You tend [54:30] to hit new highs in market breath and [54:32] the market peaks on average about 11 [54:34] months later. Now listen, it's average. [54:35] I can give you a time it was shorter. I [54:37] give you a time it was longer. So we [54:39] have that and you look at credit [54:40] spreads. I mean credit spreads on [54:41] tripleB spreads and investment grade [54:42] corporate spreads. There's there's not a [54:43] lot of fear. I say there's a monster [54:44] under the bed that credit credit [54:45] market's going to know it. That doesn't [54:47] mean some of these industries aren't [54:48] going to get over the top and have big [54:49] implosions but big picture those are the [54:51] things I think we need to focus on. And [54:53] to me those matter more now. And at the [54:56] start of the year, I mean again getting [54:57] back to kind of we we talk about this [54:59] stuff, we create content, but we also [55:01] manage money. At the start of the year, [55:02] we positioned our portfolios for a [55:04] higher inflationary world. We added [55:06] managed futures. That's been a very [55:07] dirty word for a couple years because [55:08] they haven't worked at all. Managed [55:10] futures done really well in this [55:11] environment. I know gold's come back, [55:13] but we had gold for a while. We did sell [55:15] gold before it really started to break [55:16] down. You know, we had less bond [55:17] exposure as we talked about. And you [55:19] know what does well and inflation's kind [55:20] of high? Stocks. And I get it. We can [55:21] pick some years that hasn't happened, [55:22] but historically stocks do okay in a [55:25] higher inflationary world. So those are [55:26] where we are. But then so to like kind [55:27] of build on this, we don't think the Fed [55:30] is going to cut. I know everybody kind [55:31] of jumped on that bandwagon. Start of [55:33] the year, we said we didn't think the [55:34] Fed I meant to say hike. At the start of [55:36] the year, we didn't think the Fed was [55:38] going to cut because the question was [55:39] how many times is the Fed going to cut? [55:40] It wasn't like when, it was how many [55:42] times. [55:43] >> Everyone kind of had that kicked in. It [55:45] was it was one or two. [55:46] >> And we went against that. We said, [55:48] "While they might cut, but it's going to [55:49] be harder than the market thinks." [55:50] Unfortunately, that's played out. Now, [55:52] we're the I'd say 180 of that where now [55:54] it's like, how many times are they going [55:56] to hike? And again, Sony's saying they [55:58] probably aren't going to. And why is [56:00] that? Again, [56:00] >> I I know the dot plot shows the, you [56:03] know, the hawkish pivot. But count the [56:05] votes, not the dots. [56:06] >> Crude oil just fell. Crude oil just fell [56:08] from 120 to 70. [56:11] >> So, if that was the urgent reason to [56:13] hike, you don't have to worry about that [56:14] anymore. [56:14] >> No, I think core services excluding [56:16] housing is running hot, right? I was [56:17] looking at the numbers today. It was up [56:19] in May 0.5% which is 6% annualized. Last [56:23] 3 months core services outside of [56:25] housing is running at 4% annualized. I [56:27] think the Fed has an inflation problem [56:29] to be clear. I think they have an [56:31] inflation problem but I don't think [56:32] they're going to cut which means policy [56:34] or I don't think they're going to hike. [56:35] Sorry. Which means policy is actually [56:37] getting easier. They're basically going [56:39] to run it hot. That's good for the [56:42] economy. I think that's good for for [56:44] now. this chart up guys 33 [56:47] >> an inflationary period is not [56:48] necessarily bad for stocks unless the [56:51] Fed gets really hawkish in a hurry. So [56:52] the point that you're making [56:54] >> the pace [56:55] >> yes [56:55] >> we could survive a hike every few every [56:58] few months and a few meetings without [56:59] one. [57:00] >> Yeah, [57:00] >> we can't do another 50 50. Oh my god, [57:02] now they're doing 75. Now they do 75 [57:04] again. Obviously we we ran that [57:06] experiment. It doesn't go well. You [57:08] don't think that that that push is going [57:10] to come to shove and we're going to have [57:11] to do that [57:11] >> at some point it could. the further they [57:13] fall behind the curve, if inflation [57:15] stays elevated, [57:17] >> then I think when they're trying to [57:19] catch up, [57:20] >> then we have a problem like 2022. [57:23] >> Okay, [57:23] >> right now if they went let's say 25, [57:26] let's say they hike 25 in July, I think [57:28] the market has a little bit of a, you [57:30] know, turbulence, but I think market [57:32] gets over it because all the [57:34] hyperscalers say we still going to spend [57:35] 2 and a half% of GDP on this stuff. [57:38] That's what matters for profits. I think [57:40] it's okay. But let's say you get into [57:41] 2027, inflation's still elevated. [57:43] Suddenly they're like, "Uh-oh, we we've, [57:46] you know, had we've had 3% inflation for [57:49] 7 years now. We got a hike." I think [57:51] then it becomes a problem. I think then [57:53] the Fed could potentially kill the bull [57:55] market. [57:56] >> Okay. We've done a lot of charts. Now [57:58] we're scraping the bottom of the barrel. [58:00] >> Let's just hang out. What do you guys [58:01] want to talk about, [58:02] >> John? If you please. Soccer. [58:03] >> No, no, no. Can I scrape the bottom of [58:06] my barrel? Bottom of the barrel. I want [58:07] to see this good stuff. [58:08] >> 34, sir. Fire. Mhm. [58:13] >> Can you tell a story of what what just [58:16] what just happened here with bit? All [58:17] right, I'm showing you Bitcoin versus [58:19] regional banks. Regional banks the [58:21] hottest trade in the market right now [58:23] that's not memory, right? Aside from [58:25] memory, these stocks are breaking out. [58:27] We wrote we wrote about this today. [58:30] >> This to me there's signal in regional [58:32] banks. These companies are extremely [58:36] reliant on people paying their bills, [58:38] regular people. There's no capital [58:40] markets in in in these stocks. These [58:42] companies are doing home equity lines of [58:44] credit, doing credit cards, doing auto [58:48] loans, they're doing small business [58:49] loans, middle market credit, but like [58:53] the lifeblood of the economy. When these [58:55] stocks are breaking out, it's very hard [58:57] to make a macro doom case. [59:00] >> Okay, I'm juxtaposing that with whatever [59:03] the hell is going on in Bitcoin. Not [59:05] because there's any real relationship [59:07] other than they both purport to be the [59:10] financial system. Um, all of a sudden, [59:14] Bitcoin just like fell through a trap [59:16] door in January. Nobody seems to have a [59:19] great reason why [59:20] >> I do. [59:21] >> You have a good one? [59:22] >> Yeah. [59:23] >> Okay. Well, I'd love to hear what it is. [59:25] >> Um, [59:26] it's this. [59:28] >> What's that? Bitcoin gold. [59:29] >> It's software. [59:30] >> Oh, Bitcoin software. [59:31] >> Bitcoin trading like software. [59:32] >> Bitcoin is software. [59:33] >> Yeah. [59:34] >> All right. All right. The other one I [59:35] heard is people needed to liquidate [59:37] digital assets to buy SpaceX [59:39] >> and and eventually enter. [59:41] >> No, but I know it's not it's not it's [59:42] not maybe the most satisfying answer. [59:44] It's software. It literally it's code. [59:46] >> It's trading like the biggest like a [59:48] gigantic software stock. [59:49] >> Good enough for you. [59:50] >> Yeah, I think [59:51] >> and I think you have real ills going up. [59:53] Same reason gold has come down. [59:55] >> Well, debasement trade, right? So [59:58] >> So Bitcoin was gold. Now it's not gold. [60:00] Now it's software. [60:01] >> It it it was both. It was both. All [60:04] right. [60:04] >> Well, I'll change you on a regional [60:06] bank. Um, community banks, so even [60:08] smaller. Yeah, [60:09] >> they're breaking out. I talked about [60:10] this a little bit ago today, but it's [60:12] like, you know, I'm with you, Josh. I [60:13] mean, I like to look at the big macro [60:15] picture to tell stories. We're [60:16] storytellers end of the day to a degree. [60:18] And when community banks are doing what [60:19] they're doing, regional banks doing what [60:20] they're doing, and the large caps are [60:22] probably larger banks are probably going [60:23] to follow now is what it looks like. I [60:24] know Bank of America's done it. Some [60:26] other ones have struggled. Yes. But [60:27] those are um those are just bigger [60:29] picture positives. I It's just what is [60:30] what it is. I mean, we we remember older [60:33] older listeners, you know, 2006, 2007 [60:36] financials were breaking down. They were [60:38] weak. Yes, the market was hitting new [60:39] highs. The advanced decline had already [60:41] peaked and rolled over and then [60:43] everything fell apart with the GFC. [60:45] Well, we're not seeing financials [60:47] breaking down. We're seeing smaller [60:48] financial stocks do well. So, it doesn't [60:50] mean you can't have a [60:51] >> JP Morgan made an alltime record high [60:53] today. [60:53] >> Yeah. And he got a tour of the office [60:54] and you guys probably seen it. It's [60:56] amazing office. And they're [60:57] >> he went over to the new JP Morgan. What [60:58] did you think? [60:59] >> It was great. [61:00] >> Yeah. That's pretty cool. I think I'll [61:01] take my kids there tomorrow. [61:02] >> Guys, look, one more. Microsoft and [61:03] Bitcoin. [61:04] >> Yeah, there you go. They're very, very [61:06] similar. [61:06] >> Or just do IGV? Yeah, exactly. But to [61:09] your point about community banks, I [61:10] think part of that is you mentioned [61:12] consumers. [61:13] >> It's a labor market. The labor market is [61:15] doing okay. [61:16] >> Yeah, I [61:17] >> I would argue it's doing I was arguing [61:18] at the start of the year that it was [61:20] better than headline payrolls are [61:21] suggesting. And now here we are over the [61:23] last three months, it's doing well. One [61:25] one number for you. Today we got [61:26] personal consumption data. Last three [61:29] months nominal consumption 8 and a half% [61:32] annualized pace. [61:34] >> 8 and 12% annualized place. Last 3 [61:36] months we live in a nominal worldending. [61:38] >> Even real that's high. [61:39] >> Real is most of it is inflation. Real is [61:41] 2.1%. So that's never mind. [61:43] >> Yeah. So a lot of it is inflation but [61:45] people are still spending. [61:46] >> But how big could the economy be to [61:47] Josh's point if regional banks are [61:49] breaking out [61:49] >> and industrials? [61:50] >> Yeah. And industrials. It's like a very [61:53] very tough environment to say. [61:54] >> Small caps. [61:55] >> We're at the end of something. [61:56] >> And you know, I'm going to change gears [61:58] for a second. [61:59] >> I I don't know if we have the statute of [62:00] limitations, but congrats to your [62:01] Knicks. I was watching you. I was living [62:04] through you cuz I was a Bengal fan. [62:05] We're terrible, you know, and I know a [62:06] different sport. I get it. But it was [62:07] really [62:09] true. We'll see. We'll talk football [62:10] next time. But I mean, maybe better. But [62:12] anyway, but congrats. It was fun to see [62:13] that. And um I was rooting I don't like [62:15] I don't like [62:16] >> Who's your favorite Who's your favorite [62:17] Nick? [62:18] >> Oh jeez. [62:18] >> Got to like Jaylen Brunson. [62:19] >> Yeah. I mean, as a Xavier guy, the Big [62:21] East connection. Yes, I guess you have [62:23] to say. [62:24] >> I was going to say as a lover of sports, [62:26] >> he does not give anyone any reason to [62:28] dislike that I can think of. [62:31] >> He's got to have near universal [62:32] approval. [62:33] >> What was I mean, you remember the quote [62:34] they said, "How did you drop to being a [62:36] second round player?" [62:37] >> Oh, what did they miss about you? [62:38] >> Yeah. He said everything. Everything. [62:39] That was the coolest. Like, [62:41] >> that was so cool. That was really cool. [62:43] And he's right. I mean, he's the champ. [62:44] But congrats, guys. [62:46] >> There's a connection. Netherlands and uh [62:49] the next the orange [62:50] >> the orange came from the house of orange [62:52] Netherlands and [62:53] >> [ __ ] [62:55] New Yorkers. Yeah. Wow. [62:57] >> You know what a Nickerbacher is? [62:58] >> We did this already. I still forgot. Do [63:00] you? You told me last time. [63:01] >> You don't know still. All right. [63:02] >> You know what your problem is? Major [63:03] problem is. [63:05] >> Well, guys, I will say, you know, this [63:07] is the third one I've done. Thank you. I [63:08] mean, every time we come on, our Facts [63:10] Versus Feelings podcast gets a huge [63:11] bump. We really appreciate it, Josh. We [63:13] love having you. It's an honor to do [63:15] this again. And you know what? You guys, [63:16] you guys are pros. I love running into [63:18] you uh on the speaking circuit. I love [63:21] listening to your shows and we just [63:24] really appreciate you guys coming by and [63:25] doing ours. So, thank you so much for [63:26] being here. Let's tell people uh let's [63:29] tell people about the the podcast. So, [63:31] you guys are what's your cadence of [63:33] Facts Versus Feelings? [63:34] >> Facts Versus Feelings comes out every [63:36] Wednesday morning. Um there's another [63:38] podcast comes out Wednesday morning. [63:39] Listen to that one first. Listen to us [63:40] second. [63:41] >> Animal Spirits. [63:42] >> Yeah. But, um I think we literally just [63:43] we just follow what you guys do. It [63:44] seems to work. But yeah, we talk about [63:45] all the stuff we just talked about. [63:46] Facts versus feelings. And it's a lot of [63:48] fun to uh to do all this stuff. We have [63:50] guests once in a while. We usually just [63:51] Son and I talking about everything going [63:52] on out there. [63:53] >> You guys are enough. Just like animal [63:55] spirits, Michael and Ben are enough. All [63:56] right. We We really appreciate you guys. [63:58] Thank you. [63:59] >> Uh so so much love and respect. [64:01] Congratulations on all your success at [64:03] Carson. Thank you for being here. And [64:05] hey everybody, thank you for watching. [64:07] Thank you for listening. We'll see you [64:08] next week.