Morgan Housel Says Financial Autonomy Trumps High Income and Housing

摩根·豪塞尔：财务自主权胜过高收入与购房 真正的财务自由源于低期望、行为自律以及对时间的自主掌控，而非实现收入最大化或将购房视作投资策略。 财务成功的根本驱动力在于人类心理、个人期望与情绪自律，而非单纯依靠技术专长或市场预测。摩根·豪塞尔指出，真正的财富体现为未花掉的金钱，它能赋予人们掌控自身时间的自主权；他还强调，遏制生活方式通胀并保持低期望是获得长期幸福的根本动力。通过指数基金定期定额投资、保持充足的现金储备以及坚持长期的指数级复利等实用策略，投资者能够承受不可避免的冲击。归根结底，将购房等重大财务抉择视为生活方式的选择而非纯粹的投资，才能确保长期的抗风险能力与个人生活的稳定。 真正的财富并非体现在消费与物质展示上，而是那些未被花掉的资产所赋予你对未来时间的完全自主权与选择权。 (4:14) 幸福的首要法则是控制内心的期望；如果生活方式和期望的膨胀速度超过收入增长，即便赚取巨额财富也永远无法获得满足感。 (18:20) 真正的金融风险来自无法被预料的突发冲击，与其耗费精力预测市场走势，不如保持充裕的流动性现金储备以从容应对未知动荡。 (43:22) 通过简单指数基金累积财富的核心在于持久的耐力与时间，正如沃伦·巴菲特超过99%的财富都是在60岁之后依靠复利增长实现的。 (49:54)

Author Morgan Housel argues that true wealth is defined not by visible spending or material assets, but by unspent money that buys personal autonomy and control over one's time. He asserts that long-term financial success depends far more on behavioral endurance, managing personal expectations, and emotional preparedness than on investment genius or macroeconomic forecasting. Autonomy, Expectations, and the Definition of Wealth (4:14) Housel distinguishes between being "rich"—earning high income and spending it on visible signifiers like luxury cars, expensive mortgages, and dining—and being "wealthy," which consists of unspent financial options that have not been converted into material possessions. Unspent assets grant independence, allowing individuals to dictate their daily schedules, decline coercive commitments, and weather burnout. Echoing Charlie Munger's observation that he pursued independence rather than riches, Housel explains that the primary dividend of saving is the freedom to control one's future time. Simultaneously, Housel maintains that happiness is determined by the gap between circumstances and expectations. While inflation-adjusted U.S. household incomes have doubled since the 1950s, reported happiness has stagnated because social comparisons continually elevate baseline desires. Reflecting on his early work as a hotel valet, Housel notes that observers rarely admire the driver of an exotic car; instead, they imagine themselves being admired, showing that material display fails to generate the respect people seek. He points to physicist Stephen Hawking's radical reduction of expectations to zero after his diagnosis as evidence that managing internal desires yields far more contentment than continually striving to satisfy ever-expanding material goals. Compounding, Endurance, and Simple Investing (49:54) According to Housel, investment success is driven predominantly by endurance rather than market-timing intellect. Because compounding depends exponentially on time, the longevity of an investment strategy matters far more than short-term outperformance. Warren Buffett serves as the primary case study: over 99% of Buffett's net worth was accumulated after his 60th birthday, reflecting over eight decades of continuous investing rather than just superior stock picking. Similarly, janitor Ronald Read quietly amassed an $8 million fortune by leaving modest investments in blue-chip equities untouched for 70 years, outperforming the majority of active Wall Street fund managers. Given the paramount value of durability, Housel advocates for operational simplicity over speculative complexity. His own capital allocation is concentrated in cash, a primary residence, index funds, and stock in Markel, avoiding active trading or complex forecasting models. He cites his parents, who achieved investment returns placing them in the top 3% of professional managers simply by dollar-cost averaging into index funds for nearly 40 years without ever selling during market crashes. For most individuals, accepting average market returns over an above-average time span produces superior lifelong wealth. Homeownership as a Lifestyle Choice, Not an Investment (97:48) Housel and host Steven Bartlett challenge the pervasive assumption that buying a home is primarily an investment vehicle designed to build wealth. Citing long-term historical research by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, Housel points out that U.S. home prices adjusted for inflation over a 150-year period were virtually flat, showing that residential real estate has historically produced negligible real capital appreciation compared to broader equity markets. Instead of evaluating housing through mathematical optimization or potential financial yields, Housel argues that purchasing a home should be viewed purely as an emotional and lifestyle decision. Having moved across seven cities in his twenties and early thirties to maximize flexibility, Housel chose to buy a home only after starting a family to secure residential stability that a landlord could not revoke. Bartlett shares a similar rationale, stating that he purchased his first home at age 31 for domestic security rather than asset appreciation. Both contend that evaluating a primary residence through an investment lens often distorts personal decision-making. Managing Tail Risk and Embracing Volatility (43:22) Drawing from a formative teenage experience in which two of his skiing companions were killed by a secondary avalanche that he avoided purely by chance, Housel views true risk as the unseen, unpredictable events that destroy rigid assumptions. Because decade-defining shocks like 9/11 or the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be anticipated by financial modeling, he endorses Nassim Nicholas Taleb's maxim to invest in preparedness rather than prediction. This requires maintaining substantial cash buffers and liquidity that may feel mathematically inefficient during quiet periods but guarantee survival during market dislocations. Housel also frames market volatility not as a penalty or fine, but as an unavoidable admission fee for superior long-term returns. Investors must be psychologically prepared to endure steep portfolio drawdowns without panicking. To maintain survival over decades, Housel cautions that high achievers must actively cultivate humility to counter the overconfidence that success breeds. He highlights Jesse Livermore, who generated massive fortunes during market crashes only to go bankrupt four times due to reckless leverage, contrasting this with Berkshire Hathaway's deliberate hoarding of approximately $150 billion in cash and Charlie Munger's willingness to challenge Warren Buffett's assumptions. Housel intentionally avoids prescriptive financial blueprints, asserting that optimal money management depends entirely on an individual's unique emotional wiring, tolerance for risk, and personal life stage. The unresolved challenge for any investor is defining what constitutes "enough," resisting the natural psychological impulse to continually move the goalposts once basic needs and security are met.

作家 Morgan Housel 提出，金钱的核心价值不是购买奢侈品以博取外界关注，而是通过未被支出的储蓄换取对个人时间的自主控制权。他认为，持久的财务成功取决于压低自身预期、依靠耐力获取长期复利，并为未知危机建立充足储备，而非依赖市场预测或机械化的理财公式。 真正财富在于未支出的时间自主权 (4:14) Housel 将“富有”（Rich）与“拥有财富”（Wealth）做了严格区分：前者指拥有高额当期收入去负担房贷、豪车和高档消费；后者则是未被转化为实物的资产与储蓄。未支出的资金买到的是最稀缺的资产——未来的时间与自主选择权。正如投资家 Charlie Munger 所言，其追求的始终是独立而非单纯的发财。即便从事热爱的工作，一旦日常日程被外部力量完全挤占，也会触发丧失控制权的心理抗拒（Reactance）。 Housel 以其父亲为例：在成为急诊室医生、收入大幅攀升后，父母仍保持极简生活，未随收入增加而购置豪宅名车。在从事高压急诊工作20年后，父亲因身心疲惫选择当场退休。高储蓄率和低消费习惯赋予了他随时抽身的财务自由，而许多同样高收入的同事却因深陷昂贵开销的枷锁而被迫继续工作。 幸福源于管理预期与摆脱外在虚荣 (18:20) Housel 指出幸福的第一准则在于维持低预期，因为主观幸福感取决于现实境况与预期之间的差距。若个人欲望膨胀速度超过收入增长，即便是亿万富翁依然会感到匮乏；反之，若年收入5万美元而生活需求仅需4万美元，便能体会真正的丰足。理论物理学家 Stephen Hawking 在21岁患病瘫痪后将生活预期降为零，因而将此后的每一天都视作额外奖赏。即便当代美国家庭经通胀调整后的收入是20世纪50年代的两倍，社会整体幸福感却未见提升，原因在于公众总是以邻里或同侪为参照基准，无形中抬高了心理基线。 此外，Housel 回顾在洛杉矶高档酒店担任泊车员的经历发现，当豪华跑车驶过时，旁观者从未敬佩驾驶者本人，而仅仅是在脑海中幻想自己坐在驾驶座上的风光。人们购买奢侈品意在赢得尊重，但看客往往只关注物品。因此，克制向外界证明自己的虚荣欲望，是个人资产负债表上最具价值的一笔无形资产。 耐力造就复利奇迹与应对未知风险 (43:22) 终身财富的积累由时间指数主导，而非短期挑中暴涨标的的智谋。清洁工 Ronald Read 凭借微薄薪水持续买入基础股票并持有70年，最终积累了800万美元资产；Warren Buffett 超过99%的净资产是在60岁以后获得的，其优势不在于无可匹敌的短期选股能力，而在于长达80余年的持续在场。获取平均水准的市场回报并在几十年中保持不离场，最终表现往往超越绝大多数试图战胜市场的专业投资经理。 面对市场的不确定性，预测未来经济模型或股价往往徒劳无功，如同阅读心理占星术。Housel 引用 Nassim Nicholas Taleb 的原则强调，应当“投资于准备，而非投资于预测”。重大系统性冲击约每十年发生一次（如9/11事件或新冠疫情），投资者应在投资组合中保留足以让人略感肉痛的超额流动性与现金缓冲，以极简的指数基金和低负债策略抵御波动，承担市场起伏作为换取长期收益的入场费。 买房属于生活方式选择而非财务投资 (97:48) 针对普遍将购置房产视作财富跃迁手段的观念，Housel 与主持人 Steven Bartlett 指出，买房本质上是一项生活方式决策，而非优质的财务投资。经济学家 Robert Shiller 的研究表明，在过去150年的美国历史中，扣除通胀因素后住房价格的实际增幅几乎持平。房产流动性较差且持有维护成本高昂，试图单纯依靠普通住房获得超额财务回报缺乏历史数据支持。 然而，买房在家庭层面具有不可替代的情感价值。Housel 与 Bartlett 指出，在年轻阶段，租房能够提供极高的地理流动性；但当组建家庭并育有子女后，拥有一处不受房东干扰的固定居所，能带来深度的安全感。因此，只要决策出发点是满足家庭稳定，即便其在财务账面上不够高效，也是合理的生活选择。 设定充足界限并接纳成长中的阻力 (56:28) 财务管理中最困难的技能是防止目标线不断后移。许多追求财务独立与早退休（FIRE）的人群在真正停止工作后，往往在数周内陷入空虚与目标缺失。人类心理本质上需要一定程度的摩擦与挑战，富足并不是躺在沙滩上彻底无所事事，而是拥有自主剔除厌恶工作、仅从事自我认同之事的权力。如同 Nassim Nicholas Taleb 所言，当拒绝金钱的滋味胜过接受金钱时，才算触及了真正的财富境界。 同时，压力与不适感往往是个人蜕变与社会突破的催化剂。二战的残酷危机迫使人类集中攻坚，催生了原子能、喷气航空与青霉素量产等重大突破；个人在遭遇挫折时虽然身处痛苦，事后往往发现正是这些困境重塑了韧性与同理心。接纳生活中的繁琐与风险，将其视为获取进步不可避免的间接成本，才能在追求财富的过程中保持长久的心态稳定。 Housel 总结称，其观点旨在促使个人反思金钱观与内在欲望，而非提供教条式的财务指令。个人的风险承受能力与生活诉求截然不同，真正的财务智慧在于认清自我边界，克制盲目攀比，通过构筑稳固的安全边际来换取长久内心的平静与行动的自由。

## Background 该视频由 YouTube 频道 The Diary Of A CEO（主持人 Steven Bartlett）于 2023 年 11 月 6 日发布。节目围绕全球畅销书《金钱心理学》作者摩根·豪泽尔（Morgan Housel）的新书《一如既往》（Same as Ever）展开深度对话，探讨财富本质、投资心理、储蓄意义以及如何建立理性的人生态度与财务自主权。 ## TL;DR 摩根·豪泽尔在对话中颠覆了大众对“致富”的传统认知，指出财富并非显露在外的豪车与大宅，而是未被消费掉的资金所换来的人生独立与时间主权。他结合自身遭遇雪崩的生死经历，强调未来不可预测，真正的投资智慧不在于预测行情，而在于通过极简配置、长期耐力与指数基金定投来积累复利。豪泽尔还深入剖析了期望值陷阱、买房的真实属性以及对成功的自满警惕，呼吁人们通过压低外部虚荣的期望，找到属于自己的“足够”生活。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对话沉静、真挚而充满哲思，摒弃了传统财经访谈常见的浮躁数字与暴富技巧，更像是一场对人性弱点与自我认同的深夜叩问。主持人 Steven 坦诚分享自己早期的财务困顿与创业后的动机迷茫，豪泽尔则以平和谦逊的口吻娓娓道来，将急诊室父亲的节俭、雪崩失去挚友的创伤等私人回忆化为深刻的人生警示。语调从初期的理性拆解逐渐过渡到临终省思与接纳焦虑的释怀，带给听众一种褪去虚荣焦虑后豁然开朗的松弛感与治愈力。 ## Bulletin - [05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=342s) “富有”与“财富”存在本质分野：富有体现在当前的高消费与生活排场，而真正的财富是“未消费掉的钱”，其终极价值在于购买时间自主权与人生独立性。 - [47:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2868s) 投资的核心驱动力在于耐力而非智商：沃伦·巴菲特超99%的财富积累于60岁之后，普通杂工罗纳德·里德通过长期定投蓝筹股留下逾800万美元遗产，证明持续数十年的复利耐力胜过短线选股技巧。 - [01:37:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5846s) 诺贝尔奖得主席勒等人的历史数据表明，美国过去150年扣除通胀后自住房实际升值近乎平缓；买房本质上属于生活方式选择，若单纯出于投资发财目的借债购房应保持高度警惕甚至立即止步。 - [43:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2602s) 真正的系统性风险永远是人类认知盲区里的黑天鹅事件；应对未知的最优财务策略是践行塔勒布的“准备理论”，保留看似过量的充沛现金以构建安全缓冲，而非迷信宏观预测。 ## Key takeaways - [05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=342s) 重新定义财富：富有（Rich）代表当下的现金流与消费水平，而真正的财富（Wealth）是未被花掉的资产，它赋予人清晨醒来对日程说“不”的绝对掌控权。 - [10:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=653s) 失去生活掌控力对身心健康具有摧毁性作用；研究显示低自主权环境会导致压力激素与心血管风险激增，现代人幸福感停滞的核心源于日程被动与心理抗拒。 - [15:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=904s) 金融领域最难掌握的技能是让财富目标靶停止移动；若欲望与期望的膨胀速度超越收入增长，无论拥有多少净资产都会陷入相对剥夺感与财务焦虑。 - [18:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1100s) 幸福的第一法则是维持低期望值；霍金在21岁患病时将预期降为零，自此每一天都是意外之喜，长期满足感源于“拥有事物”与“预期事物”之间的顺差。 - [22:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1336s) 最有价值的财务技能是彻底戒掉取悦外人的虚荣心；旁人从不在意开豪车的人本身，破除外在炫耀执念等同于在个人资产负债表上增添十亿美元级隐形资产。 - [27:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1668s) 低收入群体出现鲁莽消费或沉迷彩票往往出于自尊补偿与寻求微茫希望；在阶层固化的无望困境中，一张彩票常被寄托为改变命运的唯一精神慰藉。 - [41:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2495s) 真正的致命风险永远隐藏在你看不到的地方；珍珠港事件、9/11恐袭与新冠疫情等重大危机爆发前皆无预测预警，风险就是当你自以为考虑周全后剩下的盲区。 - [43:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2602s) 应对未知应“投资于准备而非预测”；投资者应配置看似过多的现金与高流动性安全垫，使资产组合具备穿透每十年一次周期崩塌的强韧生存力。 - [45:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2755s) 极简投资与“忘记密码”的长期主义优势：通过机械定投低成本宽基指数基金，单凭跨越数十年的持久耐力，就足以击败全市场97%以上的专业选股经理。 - [56:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3388s) 重新审视“财富充足（Enough）”与提前退休；FIRE运动的真谛不是年轻躺平无所事事，而是买断时间，获得只做自己热爱之事并剔除琐碎内耗的筛选权。 - [01:00:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3626s) 代际财富传递的悖论：过早给予子女巨额财富容易侵蚀其进取野心，但遵循《Die with Zero》理念，在子女30至40岁成家立业最紧迫时提供资助远优于临终遗产。 - [01:08:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4094s) 年轻人的职业选择应警惕大公司的“金手铐”；青年时期最宝贵的是试错容忍度，加入小微初创企业能通过近距离目睹失败建立受用一生的认知壁垒。 - [01:25:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5119s) 成功人士容易成为自身“正确性”的受害者；单一领域的辉煌极易导致跨界盲目自负，杰西·利弗莫尔四度暴富又四度破产自尽的悲剧印证了懂得赚钱却不懂守钱的毁灭性。 - [01:37:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5846s) 自住房属于提供情绪价值与家庭安全感的生活方式支出；历史上扣除通胀后自住房升值曲线极其平缓，为单纯发财而背负巨额房贷往往陷入不良财务决策。 - [01:41:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6108s) 胜出者往往不是掌握精确数据的人，而是最会讲好故事的人；故事能直击大脑本能并消解认知不确定性，叙事说服力在商业、投资与传播中具有统治级力量。 - [01:45:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6336s) 复利效应具有非对称性：微小的好消息进展缓慢且不易察觉，而坏消息常在一夜爆发；但极端危机与痛苦往往也是倒逼技术大跃进与个人心智成熟的催化剂。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=0s) 金钱的本质与改写一生的理财之书 “如果你买房只是为了某种虚荣，赶紧停下，逃命去吧！”本期对话的嘉宾是近十年来全球最畅销商业书籍之一《金钱心理学》（*The Psychology of Money*）的作者摩根·豪泽尔（Morgan Housel）。世界往往被划分为两类人：一类是不知道如何开始赚钱的人，另一类是赚了钱却不知道何时该停下来的人。许多困在低薪工作中的人总觉得自己没有积累财富的机会，但实际上，诸如清洁工罗纳德·里德（Ronald Read）这样看似没有特殊金融技能的普通人，却能凭借长期积累攒下高达 800 万美元的巨额遗产；而身家千亿的沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）同样践行着类似的真理——积累财富真正的秘密在于持久的投资与耐力，而非绝顶的智商。 主持人史蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）动情地分享了自己的亲身经历：大约在二十七八岁事业刚获得巨大财务成功时，在投行工作的哥哥极为严肃地对他说：“我只求你一件事，你必须读这本叫《金钱心理学》的书，它能防止你把辛辛苦苦赚来的钱全部亏光。”史蒂芬坦言，正是摩根的这本书彻底改变了他的财富命运，教会他如何守住财富并实现增长。然而，当绝大多数人嘴里喊着“我想成为百万富翁”时，他们内心真正的意思其实是“我想挥霍掉一百万美元”——想要名牌衣服、大房子和豪车。如果你的欲望和期望增长得比收入还要快，你将永远无法在金钱中获得快乐。 - 极简投资的威力：无需成为天才，只要在投资中拥有足够的“耐力”（endurance），普通人也能积累惊人的财富。 - 罗纳德·里德（Ronald Read）：一位普通的杂工兼加油站员工，去世后却因低调持有优质蓝筹股而留下了超过 800 万美元的财富。 - 期望陷阱：当物质期望值的上涨速度压倒收入涨幅，无论赚多少钱都注定陷入财务焦虑与不幸。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 欲望陷阱与独立自由的对比 accDescr: 对比展示追求消费炫耀与追求储蓄独立所带来的不同人生轨迹 subgraph Trapped ["消费陷阱（追求做富人）"] A["收入增长"] --> B["期望值膨胀"] B --> C["消费买车买房炫耀"] C --> D["丧失安全感与自由"] end subgraph Free ["真正财富（追求财务独立）"] E["收入增长"] --> F["保持生活节俭"] F --> G["未消费的资金转化为储蓄"] G --> H["换取人生自主权与时间自由"] end ``` --- ### [02:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=143s) 寻找内心的答案：为“唯一的读者”而写 谈及为什么要倾注毕生精力写作金钱与人性题材的书籍，摩根·豪泽尔给出了一个令人意外的回答：这纯粹是一种“自私的写作”（selfish writing）。他从不为了迎合特定受众或讨好市场去构思一本书，他写作的唯一读者就是他自己。在日常生活中，他自认是一个无私的人，但在写作的世界里，他只关注自己真正感兴趣的谜题，试图通过写作理清自己的思路、解决自己的困惑，然后抱持着一种信念公之于众——如果这个议题能对自己有所启发和帮助，那么它或许也能引起别人的共鸣。 摩根直言，传统写作教程总在强调“了解你的读者”，但这极容易蜕变成“迎合你的读者”（pander to your audience）。很多读者在阅读某些畅销书时会隐约感到不适，正是因为作者在刻意讨好，使用了现实生活中根本不会对真人说出口的说教口吻。《金钱心理学》就像摩根自己的个人日记，记录着他试图理解自我心路历程的探索。市面上绝大多数理财书承诺的是“读完后你将学会如何挑选中意股票、平衡支票账户或选择信用卡”，而摩根希望读者合上他的书时，能够站在镜子面前严肃地叩问自己：“我到底是谁？我真正想要的是什么？” 唯有跳出单纯的工具理性，审视内心的不安全感、对社会阶层的焦虑、炫耀名车的虚荣心，以及刻在人性深处的贪婪与恐惧，人们才能真正开始学习理财。阅读结束的那一刻，并不是知识获取的终点，而是一段漫长内省的开始——促使你出门散步，重新思考金钱对你而言能做什么，又绝对做不到什么。 --- ### [05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=342s) 重新定义财富：未被消费掉的自由与独立 在摩根·豪泽尔的哲学体系中，“富有”（Rich）与“财富”（Wealth）是截然不同的两个概念。他将“富有”定义为当前的收入水平与消费能力：你有足够的钱支付每月的房贷账单、买下想要的豪车、去高档餐厅与朋友聚餐。但这只代表你现金流的吞吐量，而“财富”恰恰相反——财富是你“没有花掉的钱”，甚至可能是你永远都不会花掉的资金。 真正的财富是隐形的。它是你决定不买的那辆跑车，是你克制住没买的大豪宅，是你留在银行账户和资产配置里的安全垫。正是这些未被挥霍的资本，赋予了人最宝贵的东西：独立性（Independence）与人生自主权（Autonomy）。正如查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）所言：“我从未想过要成为富翁，我只是一心想要获得独立。”每存下一笔钱，本质上都是在买断自己未来的一段时光，让你能够在任何一个清晨醒来时平静地说：“今天我想做什么就可以做什么，没有老板可以命令我，没有糟糕的工作可以束缚我。” - “富有”（Rich）：向外界展示出来的消费水平，体现在开的车、住的房子和日常挥霍上。 - “财富”（Wealth）：压制住虚荣心后保留下来的储蓄与资产，是隐而不见的自由底气。 - 时间主权：“每一笔储蓄，都是你预先买下的属于自己的未来。” --- ### [07:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=455s) 医生的清贫与顿悟：父亲带来的节俭启示 这种对金钱与自由的认知，深深植根于摩根·豪泽尔的童年经历。在摩根幼年时期，他的父母都在上学进修，全家依靠微薄的学生贷款和奖学金度日，生活极其贫困。直到摩根十二三岁时，父亲终于完成学业成为了一名正式的急诊室医生（ER Doctor），家庭的财务状况才迎来了天翻地覆的转机。然而，即便收入大幅提升，摩根父母在贫穷岁月中养成的节俭习惯却刻进了骨子里，他们既没有买兰博基尼，也没有搬进豪宅，依然过着极为朴素克制的生活。 在十几岁叛逆期的摩根眼中，这种节俭曾让他感到困惑甚至心生怨恨。十六七岁时，摩根去查阅了急诊室医生的平均年薪，心里极为不平，觉得父亲明明赚得足够多，却不肯买更好的车、不肯在圣诞节送更昂贵的礼物，甚至显得格外“小气刻薄”。直到大约十年前，人到中年的摩根才猛然顿悟：父亲从事的是全医疗行业中压力最巨大、最容易被职业倦怠摧毁的急诊室岗位，而父母常年坚持的生活在水平线以下的极度节俭，正是为了在未来某一刻能够随时卸下重负，不被金钱所绑架。 ### [08:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=532s) 节俭与财务独立：说停就停的自由 摩根·豪瑟尔（Morgan Housel）回顾了他父亲的经历：作为一名急诊科医生，他在长达20年的时间里经历着高强度工作，“几乎每周都有人在你怀里咽气，还有那些夭折的孩子”。在年复一年熬夜班、目睹生离死别之后，他在20年的坚守后感到心力交瘁，毅然决定彻底退休。他之所以能在想退出的那天毫不犹豫地停下来，完全是因为他多年的低物欲生活和极高的储蓄率。 反观他那些同样年届60、深感身心俱疲的同行同事，即便承受着同样的痛苦与倦怠，却因为早年购置了更大的房子、开着更好的豪车，背负沉重的财务包袱而无法抽身。豪瑟尔在大约十年前（二十几岁末）才彻底领悟：父亲当年的节俭换来的是真正的生活独立性（Independence），而这种自主权带来的幸福感，远比豪车或豪宅要持久得多。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 消费选择与生活掌控力对比 accDescr: 对比低消费高储蓄带来的自主权与高消费带来的生活束缚 subgraph ChoiceA["高储蓄与低消费路线"] A1["生活支出远低于收入"] --> A2["高储蓄率与资金积累"] A2 --> A3["获得人生自主权与独立性"] A3 --> A4["随时能够选择退出与休息"] end subgraph ChoiceB["高消费路线（大房与豪车）"] B1["维持昂贵生活方式"] --> B2["持续依赖高额现金流"] B2 --> B3["丧失对生活节奏的掌控"] B3 --> B4["职业倦怠却无法停下工作"] end ``` ### [10:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=653s) 失去生活掌控力对身心健康的摧毁 豪瑟尔指出，决定人幸福与否的最关键拼图之一就是“掌控力”（Control）。反过来看，让人极度痛苦的根源正是无法掌控自己的未来、工作地点、排班时间，以及时常悬在头顶的裁员危机。这种无处不在的不确定性就像沉重的铁锚，严重拖垮身体健康。 史蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）补充道，自己在研究“如何热爱工作”时梳理出五个要素，其中核心便是“自主性与控制权”（Autonomy and Control）。医学研究表明，在低自主权环境下工作的人，身体会产生严重的病理反应：皮质醇与压力激素激增、心血管疾病患病率大幅攀升。 - **生理压力警报**：当人面临巨大的日常压力时，即便疲惫地躺在床上，也能感受到心脏狂跳，这种生理反应如果日积月累持续5年、10年乃至30年，会对身体造成不可逆的损耗。 - **洛克菲勒的长寿秘诀**：约翰·D·洛克菲勒（John D. Rockefeller）作为富可敌国的巨头活到了97岁。其私人医生透露他的健康秘诀在于：“他从不让任何事情烦扰自己，花大量时间待在户外，且在离席时胃里总保留一点饥饿感。”无论面临何种残酷的商业压力，他内心都沉着如冰。 ### [12:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=755s) “心理抗拒”与日程的傀儡 豪瑟尔在其著作《金钱心理学》（The Psychology of Money）的第七章《自由》（Freedom）中指出，幸福最宽泛的生活方式变量就是自由——“在违背自己意愿的时间表上去做你热爱的事情，其感觉与做你厌恶的事情并无二致。”心理学上将这种状态称为**心理抗拒**（Reactance）。 许多年薪3000万至5000万美元的高管或CEO，时间完全被他人排满，哪怕疲惫不堪也必须早起赶跨国会议或飞往中国谈生意；相比之下，沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）身家上千亿美元、年逾93岁依然精力充沛，正是因为他高度授权，将日常日程完全掌控在自己手中，每天只做自己想做的事情。 史蒂芬坦言自己当前的生活正是如此： - 随着商业上的成功，他感觉自己成了Google日历小方块操纵的木偶，全球到处奔波。 - 直到一个多月前，他不得不让助理索菲（Sophie）每天中午雷打不动留出30分钟日程专门用来“吃午饭与呼吸”，并将一周7天的私教健身强制加入日程。 - 史蒂芬反思这种状态何时才能终止，因为单纯赚更多的钱并不会解决问题。他甚至发现自己有时会“故意取消某些活动或行程”，仅仅是为了向自己证明自己依然拥有说不的掌控权。 ### [15:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=904s) 永远在移动的目标靶：停止赚钱的艺术 豪瑟尔援引纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）的两句名言来剖析财富与欲望的本质： > “当你拒绝一份金钱的感觉比你接受它更美妙时，你才算得上富有。” > “这个世界大致平分为两半：一半人不知道如何开始赚钱，另一半人不知道何时停止赚钱。” 许多高净值人士深陷后者无法自拔。他们总以为“等净资产达到X时，一切烦恼就会烟消云散”，但一旦达到目标，他们便会不由自主地把球门柱（Goalpost）继续向前推延。豪瑟尔强调，**金融领域最艰难的技能，就是让目标靶停止移动**。 - **通胀调整后的生活对比**：经通胀调整后，当今美国家庭的平均收入是20世纪50年代的两倍，但各项幸福感指标却显示现代人反而更不快乐。 - **相对剥夺感的陷阱**：摆脱赤贫确实能带来幸福，但当整个社会的收入水平普遍提升时，你的邻居、同事和亲戚收入也同步翻倍。人们自然而然地调整预期并继续横向攀比，从而陷入无休止的欲望循环。 ### [17:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1039s) 基准线陷阱：为什么物质进步没有让我们更快乐 即使坐拥经通胀调整后高达近半万亿美元的财富，历史巨富洛克菲勒（John D. Rockefeller）在世时也从未享受过青霉素、布洛芬、防晒霜或小儿麻痹症疫苗等现代寻常事物。然而，如今哪怕能享有所有这些前人视为奇迹的现代科技与医疗成果，普通美国人也并不会觉得自己比当年的洛克菲勒生活得更好。人们的心理机制始终是：只看周围其他人拥有什么，并直接将当下环境默认设定为自己的“生活基准线”（Baseline）。 这种现象代代相传。摩根·豪瑟尔（Morgan Housel）指出，哪怕未来自己的孩子或孙辈在扣除通胀后能赚到自己两倍的薪资，他们也绝不会因此更快乐——因为对当代人而言宛如魔法般的新技术，届时只会被后人视作理所当然的起跑线。就像托马斯·杰斐逊（Thomas Jefferson）若穿越到2023年，必然会对眼前的科技与医学突破惊叹到昏厥，而现代人却连一秒钟都不会为此心怀感激，因为这早就被内化为理所当然的基本配置。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 财富与期望基准线循环 accDescr: 展示技术进步与收入提高如何被新的心理基准线吞噬，从而导致幸福感停滞。 subgraph Progress["物质与科技进步"] A["技术与收入增长"] --> B["生活条件客观改善"] end subgraph Perception["心理适应机制"] B --> C["同辈对比设定新基准"] C --> D["期望水涨船高"] end D --> E["幸福感归零/停滞"] E -.-> A ``` ### [18:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1100s) 幸福的第一法则：期望值与现实的差额 史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）盛赞摩根·豪瑟尔于11月出版的新书《一如既往》（*Same as Ever: Timeless Lessons on Risk, Opportunity and Living a Good Life*），称其直奔主题、字字珠玑，是他最喜欢的作品之一。书中提到了一个至关重要的命题：**幸福的第一法则就是保持低期望**。社会常说“攀比是偷走快乐的窃贼”，本质上正是因为对比抬高了个人的期望，而一旦期望被推高，幸福感便荡然无存。 大众普遍存在反直觉的误区，以为追求幸福就必须极具野心、多赚钱、拼命工作或打造成功的创业公司。这些努力固然构成了等式的前半部分，但不可忽视的后半部分则是“压低期望”。长期累积的幸福感，本质上来源于“拥有什么”与“期望什么”之间的差值。 - **斯蒂芬·霍金的顿悟**：作为人类历史上最杰出的天才物理学家之一，霍金患有运动神经元疾病，全身瘫痪，不能自主控制任何一块肌肉，只能借助电脑发声。在去世前几年接受《纽约时报》（*The New York Times*）采访时，他却由衷畅谈自己生活有多么幸福。当被问及秘诀时，霍金回答：“21岁患病时，我的期望值就被降到了零；从那以后的每一天，全都是意外的馈赠（bonus）。” - **濒死视角的参照**：如果身处临终病榻，医生断言你明天就会离世，而你却奇迹般多活了一天，那么哪怕仅仅是目睹清晨的日出，或是多握一握妻子的手，都会带来无与伦比的震撼与幸福，原因就在于当时的期望已经降到了谷底。 - **财富与心态的相对性**：若一个人的期望膨胀速度快于收入增速，挣再多钱也无法获得满足。即便年入10亿美元，只要心理需求是11亿美元，在感受上依然贫困潦倒；相反，年收入5万美元的人如果只需4万美元就能感到充实，内心便会无比富足。豪瑟尔强调，控制内心的欲望比提升收入、拉高投资回报更容易掌控，它完全是一场可以通过意志完全掌控的内心修行。 ### [22:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1336s) 最有价值的财务技能：戒掉取悦他人的欲望 关于如何在现实中将期望维持在生活境遇之下，豪瑟尔分享了自己大学期间在洛杉矶一家五星级酒店做泊车员（valet）的亲身经历。在19岁到24岁这段青春岁月里，他每天都会看到形形色色的人开着法拉利、兰博基尼和劳斯莱斯进出。某一天，一个突如其来的念头击中了他：当豪车驶来时，他从没有多看驾驶座上的人一眼并赞叹“这家伙真酷”，相反，他每一次都是把自己代入司机的角色，幻想着“如果我是司机，其他人肯定会觉得我很酷”。 那一刻，他看穿了这种荒谬脱节的心理现实：**根本没有人在意开豪车的人本身，大家之所以想坐进豪车，只是误以为别人会在意自己**。 - **破除虚荣的执念**：社会上没有人像你自己在意自己那样在意你，也没有人真正在乎你的汽车、豪宅、衣物或珠宝。旁人投来的目光，不过是借着你的身外之物，在脑海中意淫自己拥有它们时的光鲜。 - **十亿美元级的资产负债表技能**：豪瑟尔直言，一个人所能拥有的最具价值的财务技能，就是“不再需要取悦他人”。一旦不需要对外炫耀，这项心态特质就相当于个人资产负债表上价值十亿美元的隐形资产。 - **人生阶段的炫耀边界**：在年轻择偶期，打扮得体、展示“孔雀羽毛”传递信号情有可原；但如果在事业与家庭都已尘埃落定后，依旧放不下炫耀的执念，生活就会演变成一场净亏损。 - **沃伦·巴菲特对成功的定义**：巴菲特曾说，真正的成功是“你希望去爱你的那些人，真的深爱着你”。对豪瑟尔而言，这些人仅仅包含父母、妻子和孩子这五个人。得到他们的爱，便能享有90%的潜在幸福；如果失去他们的爱，人生其余的满足感绝不会超过10%。 ### [25:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1535s) 婚姻与人际关系的底层逻辑：零期望付出 在探讨幸福的章节中，豪瑟尔引用了好友布伦特·贝肖尔（Brent Beshore）极具洞察力的婚姻理论：**唯有当双方都渴望为对方服务、且完全不求回报时，婚姻才能真正美满**。 如果夫妻每天清晨醒来，心里所想的都是“我今天该如何全心全意为伴侣付出，同时不对伴侣抱有任何回报期望”，那么双方每一天都会收获意外之喜。因为原本未作任何索求，对方哪怕付出了一点一滴的关怀、理解与协助，都会瞬间超出预期，让两人的关系始终沉浸在被爱意与感激包围的正向循环中。 ### [26:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1572s) 亲密关系中的“索求无度”与外部认可的陷阱 摩根·豪泽尔（Morgan Housel）探讨了期望值如何摧毁人际关系与职业生涯。他指出，彻底毁掉一段婚姻或事业的最快方式就是变得“索求无度（needy）”。所谓 needy，本质上就是预期过高——每天醒来都期待伴侣为你做这做那、期望对方服务你、帮助你。史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）补充表示，这种状态本质上是极度渴望外部因素（例如伴侣）来提供自我价值感与心理认可。这与金钱层面的炫耀行为如出一辙：人若想停止为了给并不在乎的外人留下深刻印象而挥霍，转而关注身边真正深爱的少数人，前提必须是认清并解决内心深处对“被认可”的病态渴求。 --- ### [27:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1627s) 穷困时期的鲁莽消费与对“微茫希望”的下注 巴特利特借此切入豪泽尔著作《金钱心理学》的第一章，讨论人们对待金钱观念的形成根源，并提出了一个令人困惑的社会现象：为什么低收入地区往往聚集着最多的博彩投注站？巴特利特罕见地坦白了自己 18、19 岁时的极端经历。当时他身无分文，甚至靠偷披萨度日，兜里揣着 50 英镑去上大学，结果刚到大学第一天就决定退学。然而就在拿到第一笔学生贷款发放款时，他竟破天荒地把全部贷款一次性压在了一场足球比赛的外围投注上，并在伤停补时第 6 分钟眼睁睁看着这笔保命钱化为乌有。然而，一旦后来他真正赚到了钱，心态却奇迹般地平静下来——他开始追求长期主义、拒绝浮华消费，甚至家里连电视都不买，财富越多，物质欲望反而越低。 豪泽尔对“为什么贫困群体反而更容易在金钱上做出鲁莽决策”提出了双重核心理论解释： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 为什么低收入群体更容易做出鲁莽消费决策 accDescr: 展示自尊渴求与绝望挣扎两条路径导致低收入者鲁莽花钱的心理机制 subgraph RespectPath ["路径一：获取尊重与认可的替代途径"] A["人类的核心需求：<br/>获得他人的尊重与赞赏"] --> B{"是否有内在优势<br/>（智慧/幽默/事业/爱）？"} B -- 是 --> C["内在充盈：<br/>无需炫耀物质"] B -- 否 --> D["只剩外在手段：<br/>通过豪车与名牌炫耀自尊"] end subgraph HopePath ["路径二：逃离阶层固化的微茫希望"] E["陷入底层低薪困局<br/>感受世界不公与绝望"] --> F["买彩票 / 赌博"] F --> G["成为一天中唯一的快乐与微小希望<br/>（即便胜率仅有 0.00001%）"] end ``` - **尊严补偿机制**：每个人都渴望外界的尊重与赞赏。成功人士可以通过商业成就、智慧、爱心或幽默感来获得这些认可，因此物欲大大降低；但如果在生活中无法依靠这些获得尊重，“展现豪车与外在消费”就成了底层人士唯一的自尊武器。 - **彩票背后的希望寄托**：数据显示，全美收入最低的 10% 人群购买了全美约 80% 的彩票。表面上看，连温饱都难以维持的人花大钱买刮刮乐极其愚蠢，但身处底层无望的困局中，买一张彩票或许是他们生活中唯一能够产生“改变命运”微茫希望（Hope）的事物。巴特利特对此深有共鸣，坦言自己当年下注后，在比赛出结果前整整一天，都在汽车交易平台 Auto Trader 和房产网站 Rightmove 上幻想着中奖后要买什么。 - **贫困与即时享乐**：当一个人每天倒班打零工、筋疲力尽地坐三趟公交接送孩子，若一天中唯一能带来慰藉的只有一包烟、一罐酒或一张彩票，这种追求短暂快感的心态完全在情理之中；外界高高在上的批判往往低估了底层对那一丝微小希望的渴求。 --- ### [32:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1931s) 存钱的真谛：买下你未来的独立与掌控权 巴特利特询问豪泽尔：针对当年那个坐在出租屋里面对一堆法院判决书（County Court Judgments）和追债催缴信的自己，或者每个月仅拿 1000 到 2000 美元、交完房租便所剩无几的年轻人，从底层迈向富裕的最佳路径究竟是什么？ 豪泽尔给出了极其明确且坚决的答案：“存钱（Save money）”。他强调，底层人生活中的巨大痛苦与压力，核心源于对生活完全丧失了控制力。如果能把存下的每一块钱，都视作“买下了自己未来的一小部分独立与控制权”，人生的底层逻辑就会发生彻底转变： - 真正的出路绝非买一辆更好的车、更大的房子或更贵的衣服，**出路是“独立（Independence）”**。 - 只有存款积累起来的独立性，才能让人有底气选择居住城市、挑选心仪工作、在生病时不至于瞬间崩溃。这种掌控感能卸下生活中最沉重的精神枷锁。 --- ### [33:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2018s) 三类储蓄人群与金钱思维的先天遗传之争 豪泽尔在书中将所有人划分为三类： 1. **懂得存钱的人**（Those who save） 2. **觉得自己存不下钱的人**（Those who don't think they can save） 3. **觉得自己没必要存钱的人**（Those who don't think they need to save） 巴特利特表示自己在这三类角色中都经历过一遍，但豪泽尔对此感到震惊，因为他认为一个人对待金钱的底色很难在后天发生根本逆转。豪泽尔引用了沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）的“金钱思维（Money mind）”理论：芒格曾犀利地指出，向年轻人解释金融问题时，他们要么瞬间秒懂，要么一辈子都搞不明白。尽管豪泽尔认为芒格把事情说得太绝对，但他坦言在先天遗传（Nature）与后天培养（Nurture）的天平上，金钱思维的形成至少有七到八成（70/30 或 80/20）归因于与生俱来的天性。听到这里，巴特利特随即准备提出有力反驳。 ### [34:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2089s) 致命雪崩：改变一生的无心抉择 许多人在年轻时都曾认为自己“没钱所以无法存钱”，因为看不到存下细小金额的意义，也尚未理解复利增长的恐怖威力。然而，真正颠覆一个人对风险、金钱乃至整个人生态度的，往往不是枯燥的数学逻辑，而是刻骨铭心的极端意外。2001年2月，年仅17岁的摩根·豪瑟（Morgan Housel）在加利福尼亚州太浩湖（Lake Tahoe）经历了一场永远改变他人生的惨剧。当时他是一名全职竞技滑雪运动员，从小在斯阔谷（Squaw Valley）滑雪队接受严苛训练，每年有10个月、每周6天都在全球各地滑雪，队里十几个伙伴朝夕相处，情同手足。 那天早晨，摩根与他最要好的两个挚友布伦丹·艾伦（Brendan Allen）和布莱恩·里士满（Bryan Richmond）一起滑雪。为了寻找更刺激的粉雪，三人违规钻过了印有“禁止跨越”的警戒线，滑向雪场管理区域之外的荒野野雪区。在未开发的荒野滑雪结束后，他们会滑到一条偏僻的公路边，那里没有缆车，必须靠搭便车（hitchhike）返回基地旅舍。就在那趟越界滑雪途中，三人意外触发了一场小型雪崩。二十多年后，摩根依然能清晰地回忆起那种奇异而恐怖的触感：平时滑雪是滑雪板压紧积雪以获取抓地力，而雪崩发生时，却是地面本身在推搡着你，就像遭遇强烈地震一样，前一秒还掌控自如，后一秒瞬间完全失控。幸运的是，那场雪崩规模很小，积雪仅没过膝盖便停了下来。当时少年心性的三个人甚至还在山底兴奋地击掌庆祝，完全没有意识到死神刚刚擦肩而过。 搭便车返回大本营后，布伦丹和布莱恩意犹未尽，提议按原路再去滑一次。出于某种连摩根自己都说不清的缘由，他那一刻就是不想再滑了。他随口向两位朋友提议：“与其等会儿再辛苦搭便车，不如你们去滑第二趟，我换下雪靴开我的皮卡车绕过去接你们。”三人随即分头行动。二三十分钟后，摩根开车准时到达约定地点，路边却空无一人。从山顶滑下来实际上只需一分钟，等了半个小时不见人影后，摩根以为他们已经搭上别人的便车提前走了。在没有智能手机的2001年，同伴间暂时失联是寻常便饭，摩根便径自返回旅舍。随着时间推移，他开始隐隐感到不安，他赶去布伦丹家敲门，依然无人回应，只能在电话语音信箱里留下一句充满不详预感的话：“兄弟，希望你一切平安（I hope you're okay man）。” 下午四五点左右，布莱恩的母亲打来电话，焦急地询问布莱恩为何没去上班。摩根如实交代了他们早上的越界滑雪和约定接人的细节。电话那头，布莱恩的母亲失声喊出一句“天哪（Oh my God）”，随即挂断了电话。直到此时，恐慌才彻底爆发。搜救队带着探杆赶赴现场展开地毯式搜索，最终在深达6英尺（约1.8米）的冰雪之下找到了布伦丹和布莱恩的遗体——两人在第二趟滑雪中被一场巨大的雪崩当场吞噬。 ### [39:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2343s) 命悬一线：大千世界由微不足道的偶然决定 失去挚友是摩根人生中遭遇的第一场灭顶之灾，当时的他在心智上根本无法消化如此沉重的打击。直到多年以后反思往事，他才顿悟出这一惨剧带给他的深远启示：他拒绝滑第二趟的决定，完全是一个“毫无思考的瞬间念头（brainless decision）”。那不是基于严密利弊分析（cost-benefit analysis）的理智判断，他只是恰巧懒得动弹。然而，这成了他一生中做出的最重要决定。在那之前，他曾与布伦丹和布莱恩一起滑过成千上万次雪，几乎从未拒绝过再来一趟；而唯独那一次拒绝，拯救了他的生命。如果他跟着去了，死亡率是100%。 这一体验彻底打破了摩根对“人生掌控感”的执念。世人往往耗费无数心力去推敲那些宏大的战略选择——去哪所大学、选择什么职业、与谁结婚；但残酷的真相是，“整个世界其实是悬在一根纤细的蛛丝之上的（The world hangs by a thread）”。真正重塑命运轨迹的，往往是那些微不足道、漫不经心的琐碎琐事：早一秒或晚一秒过马路、出门发动汽车的时机、无意中在街角撞见一个人，或者仅仅是决定不去滑第二趟雪。这种混沌力量让所有试图对未来进行宏大预测的企图显得荒唐可笑。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 混沌理论与风险认知演进模型 accDescr: 展示从微小的无意识决定，到理解世界的脆弱性，最终形成对投资预测保持谦逊的认知演化过程。 subgraph MicroEvents["日常维度的微小偶然"] A["漫不经心的微小决定<br>（如放弃滑第二趟雪）"] --> B["引发剧烈的生存分歧<br>（生死一念之差）"] end subgraph WorldFragility["对世界本质的顿悟"] B --> C["认识到'世界悬于一发'<br>（The World Hangs by a Thread）"] C --> D["混沌理论：<br>微小变量导致不可控的巨变"] end subgraph MindsetShift["认知与投资哲学"] D --> E["放弃对宏观未来的精准预测<br>（经济、选举、寿命）"] E --> F["对未知的风险保持极致谦逊<br>（风险往往隐藏在看不见之处）"] end ``` - **微小决策的杠杆效应**：宏大的人生往往并不由宏大的规划决定，决定生死与贫富的拐点常常隐藏在无意识的日常琐事中。 - **预测的虚妄**：连下一次经济衰退何时降临、婚姻能维持多久、自己能活多大年纪都无法预知的人类，在纷繁复杂的随机世界面前必须学会绝对的谦逊。 ### [41:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2495s) 投资的最大盲区：你看不见的东西才是真正的风险 这种对脆弱性与随机性的认知，直接折射到了现代投资世界中。无论是在公开市场进行长期布局的专业机构，还是随波逐流买入加密货币的散户，多数投资者亏损的核心根源，都在于他们狂妄地坚信自己“能够预测未来”。 纵观过去两代人对美国经济造成毁灭性冲击的历史性拐点，最典型的四大冲击莫过于： 1. 1941年的珍珠港事件（Pearl Harbor）； 2. 2001年的“9·11”恐怖袭击事件； 3. 2008年雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒闭触发的全球金融海啸； 4. 2020年席卷全球的新冠疫情（COVID-19）。 这些事件最大的共同点在于：**在它们爆发的前一刻，没有任何一个人预见到它们**。它们从未出现在任何主流报纸的头条预警中，没有任何官方经济展望将它们纳入考量，也没有任何财经评论员在电视上呼吁避险。它们犹如毫无征兆的雪崩，“在两秒钟之内释放了所有的摧毁力量”。同理可以断言，在未来一年或十年内对人类生活与全球市场构成最大风险的重磅事件，必然是今天此时此刻没有任何人正在谈论、甚至凭借目前的认知完全无法想象的事物。 摩根引用了知名财务顾问卡尔·理查兹（Carl Richards）的一句名言：“**风险，就是当你自以为已经把一切都考虑周全之后，所剩下的那些东西**（Risk is what's left over when you think you've thought of everything）。”人们尽可以穷尽脑力去列出生活和投资中的全部潜在风险，并制定自以为天衣无缝的防御计划；但这项思想演练完成之后，那些完全被盲区遗漏、压根未曾料及的盲点，才是真正的风险所在。这恰恰对应了摩根在《Same as Ever》一书中的核心洞见：真正的致命危机，永远是你看不见的东西。 ### [43:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2602s) 预测未来的虚妄与纳西姆·塔勒布的“准备理论” 真正的风险永远隐藏在你看不到的地方。摩根·豪瑟（Morgan Housel）指出，承认这一点固然令人恐惧，但换个角度看，它也是一种巨大的解脱——既然如此，人们为何还要费尽心机去预测股市明天的走势、经济未来的走向，甚至建立复杂的宏观预测模型去测算未来十年的经济？回望过去一二十年，根本没有任何人能够提前预测“9·11”事件或新冠疫情的爆发。尽管比尔·盖茨在2015年的 TED 演讲中曾警告病毒大流行是人类社会面临的最大风险，但具体的爆发时机、严重程度，以及经济究竟是停摆两周还是两年，在当时完全是无法预知的。史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）打趣道，当时同样有成百上千场 TED 演讲宣称一切都会欣欣向荣。事实上，这世界平均每十年就会“崩塌”一次，你对风险、稳定性和确定性的一切预设都会彻底瓦解。 那么，既然风险无法被看见，普通人究竟该如何应对？豪瑟引用了纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）的名言：“投资于准备，而非预测”（"Invest in preparedness, not in prediction"）。与其费尽心机去猜加密货币或股市下一步会怎样，不如在财务中建立足够厚的安全缓冲区——储备充足的现金与高流动性资产，并对债务保持敬畏，从而确保无论发生什么黑天鹅事件，你至少都有撑过去的底气。豪瑟提出了一个反常识的标准：你投资组合中保留的现金数量，应该多到让你觉得“有点过多”，甚至让你感到有些肉疼。如果你持有的现金仅够应付那些你预想得到的风险，那么每一次真正的意外都会将你击溃；只有持有看似过量的现金，你才有机会在“9·11”、大流行病或珍珠港式的冲击中存活下来。很多人看到豪瑟极其保守的资产配置时总会问他：“你存这么多现金究竟是要买什么？”而他的回答永远是：“我不知道。没有人能预知自己的人生和这个世界会发生什么，唯一的应对之道就是建立看似过度的安全感。” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 应对未知的两种财务策略对比 accDescr: 对比基于预测的脆弱策略与基于准备的高韧性策略 subgraph PREDICTION["预测模式（脆弱）"] P1["试图预测市场与宏观经济"] --> P2["仅针对已知风险留存资金"] P2 --> P3["遭遇未预料黑天鹅（如大流行）"] P3 --> P4["财务断裂与被迫出局"] end subgraph PREPAREDNESS["准备模式（反脆弱）"] R1["承认未来不可预测"] --> R2["保留看似过多的现金与流动性"] R2 --> R3["直面每十年一次的系统崩塌"] R3 --> R4["具备持久韧性并安全穿透周期"] end ``` ### [45:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2755s) 极简的资产配置与“忘记密码”的投资智慧 谈及自己的个人资产配置时，豪瑟坦言他的策略简单到了极点：“我的全部净资产就是现金、一处房产、指数基金，以及我担任董事的马库尔公司（Markel）的部分股票，仅此而已。”他没有复杂的架构，甚至只有一家开户银行和一个股票经纪账户。史蒂文随即附和，自己在读了豪瑟的书之后，也彻底放弃了选股的执念，除了直接投资创立公司（持有约五六十家初创公司的股份）以及一笔持有了六年的以太坊（Ethereum）之外，剩余的所有可用资金全部投入了指数基金。史蒂文笑称，因为自己经营着一家区块链软件公司，深知开发者在以太坊上的聚集度远超其他平台，所以这项长期持有即便历经近两年的大跌依然获利丰厚。 史蒂文还分享了一句极具共鸣的体会：“成功的投资，就是当你彻底把投资账户的密码给忘了。”豪瑟对此深表赞同，直言这正是长期投资能取得好结果的关键。史蒂文坦言，当天为了录制这期播客，原本打算登录账户看一眼自己的指数基金收益，结果发现自己居然真的想不起密码了，那种“因为长期不看而忘记密码”的状态反而让他倍感自豪。豪瑟强调，他之所以全仓配置指数基金，并不是盲目附和那些“没有人能战胜市场”的教条；事实上，市场上确实有极少部分绝顶聪明的人能够跑赢大盘，甚至豪瑟自己也认识这样的顶尖投资家。但他选择指数基金的核心考量在于“持久力”（Endurance）：“如果我能在超长的时间跨度内获得市场的平均回报，所积累的财富就足以轻松跻身全市场前 5% 的顶尖投资者之列。” - 豪瑟的个人资产组合极其精炼：仅包含现金、自住房产、宽基指数基金，以及其任职董事的 Markel 股票。 - 史蒂文的个人组合：除创业股权和长期持有的核心加密资产外，流动资金全数买入指数基金，坚决杜绝择时与短线选股。 - 最顶级的投资心理纪律：不过度关注账面波动，甚至“忘记登录密码”，以物理层面的隔绝来杜绝情绪化的人性交易。 ### [47:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2868s) 指数基金、定投以及复利的终极力量：巴菲特的秘密 为了证明“持久力胜过短期暴利”，豪瑟以自己的父母为例。他的父母虽然聪明，但毫无金融专业背景，对金融市场也毫无兴趣。然而，他们坚持在长达近40年的时间里通过定投（Dollar Cost Averaging）买入指数基金，期间从未卖出过一股。单凭这种机械而迟钝的坚持，他们最终获得的长期回报甚至击败了市面上 97% 的专业投资经理，直接进入了前 3% 的行列。针对普通大众，豪瑟解释了定投的核心机制：无论风吹雨打、无论股市经历繁荣还是崩盘衰退，每个月固定拿出比如 100 美元买入，如同许多人工作账户中的养老金（如 401k）代扣一样完全自动化；而宽基指数基金则相当于一次性买下整个资本市场成千上万家公司的切片（如苹果、特斯拉等），其实质就是“买入并持有一份全球资本主义发展的红利”。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 复利力量的底层逻辑 accDescr: 展示回报率与持有时间在复利公式中的关系及巴菲特案例 subgraph FORMULA["复利机制"] A["资产积累"] --> B["收益率 ^ 时间"] B --> C["指数（时间/坚持）承担绝大部分做功"] end subgraph BUFFETT["沃伦·巴菲特财富积累"] D["60 岁之前：30 亿美元"] --> E["60 岁之后：超过 1000 亿美元"] E --> F["80 年不间断投资的持久力"] end ``` 如果面对孩子的质问：“爸爸，凭什么这种策略比买加密货币或买我喜欢的某家公司更好？”豪瑟给出的答案是：未来一年或五年的短期涨幅，对你一生的财富积累毫无实质意义；决定终局的从来不是你单年能赚到多惊人的高回报，而是这种回报你能持续维持多长时间。复利的数学逻辑在于“回报率的时间次方”（$\text{Returns}^{\text{Time}}$），整个公式中最核心、最繁重的做功全靠“时间”这一指数项。豪瑟抛出了一个震撼的经典案例： > “沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）99% 的个人净资产，都是在他 60 岁生日之后才赚到的。” 巴菲特在 60 岁时虽然身家高达约 30 亿美元，但如今 90 多岁的他净资产已破千亿美元，这还是在他捐赠了约 1000 亿美元给慈善机构的前提下（否则将从 30 亿飙升至 2000 亿美元）。当资产基数达到千亿级别时，大盘哪怕仅上涨 10%，他一年增加的 100 亿美元就是他 60 岁时总身家的三倍多。豪瑟总结道，巴菲特固然是伟大的投资家和选股大师，但他真正的“秘密武器”在于他从 11 岁起就从未间断地投资了整整 80 年；如果巴菲特在 50 岁或 60 岁时选择退休去佛罗里达打高尔夫，今天根本不会有人听说过他的名字，他只会变成一个无人知晓的普通亿万富豪。巴菲特成为家喻户晓的传奇，其本质完全归功于八十年如一日的“持久力与耐力”，而非单纯某一年的惊人年化回报。 ### [52:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3121s) 扫地清洁工的 800 万美元与投资耐力 史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）提到了摩根·豪瑟尔（Morgan Housel）书中写过的一个经典案例：罗纳德·詹姆斯·里德（Ronald James Read）。他于 2014 年去世，享年 92 岁，去世时留下了超过 800 万美元的净资产。令人难以置信的是，他的职业仅仅是一名在加油站擦地、打扫卫生的清洁工兼杂工。摩根解释道，里德成功的秘诀极其简单——他把从清洁工微薄薪水中省下来的为数不多的钱，全部投入了股市，然后整整 70 年不碰它们。这就是长期复利的全部奥秘所在：只要在投资中拥有足够的耐力（endurance），并能坚持数年乃至数十年，你根本不需要成为什么选股天才。 事实上，这种耐力足以让你击败市场上 97% 甚至 99% 所谓的天才选股专家。选对股票本身极其困难，就像成为一名 NBA 职业球员一样，不可能每个人都能做到；但保持耐力、拥有耐心，在很大程度上完全处于个人掌控之中。摩根指出，许多专业基金经理每周工作 80 个小时、辛勤耕耘 30 年试图战胜市场，结果却根本做不到；即便有少数顶尖高手能做到，每年往往也仅仅跑赢市场 0.5% 到 1%。如果一个人能连续 10 年跑赢市场 1%，那他绝对是足以被刻在“投资界总统山”（Mount Rushmore）上的大师。然而，一个普通人只要在 20 年或 30 年内获得平均市场回报并坚持不懈，赚到的财富将远远超越绝大多数选股天才，就像这位留下 800 万美元捐给慈善机构的清洁工一样。 史蒂文随即抛出了一个质疑：看到罗纳德·里德的经历，难道不会觉得“老兄，你银行账户里明明有八九百万美元，你本该好好享受人生”吗？摩根坦言，他确实有点后悔在书中没有明确说清这一点，导致读者将里德当成了榜样。里德绝不是摩根心中的生活楷模；他的故事只是一个极其罕见、极端的例证，证明哪怕毫无金融人脉背景与特长，也能单纯靠复利致富。但里德一辈子住在简陋的房子里，直到晚年还在做清洁工，这并非摩根所追求的人生。摩根希望过上舒适体面的生活，追求的是财务独立，而非盲目的自我克制。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 投资耐力对比选股能力 accDescr: 对比专业选股与长期耐力投资对最终财富积累的不同影响 subgraph Professional["专业选股路径"] P1["每周工作 80 小时，持续 30 年"] P2["极难战胜大盘，仅极少数跑赢 0.5%~1%"] P1 --> P2 end subgraph Endurance["长期耐力路径"] E1["微小储蓄持续投入大盘资产"] E2["不折腾、长久持有 20~70 年"] E3["获得平均市场回报，积累巨额财富"] E1 --> E2 --> E3 end ``` ### [54:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3281s) 养老金困境与拉米特·塞提的“富足生活” 史蒂文谈到了英国及全球普遍存在的养老金（Pension）现象：很多人从工资中扣钱存入养老金，但内心总有一种声音——“我想在 25 岁时暴富，去拉斯维加斯挥金如土、购买奢侈品、体验精彩人生，而不是等到 65 岁牙齿都咬不动的时候才有钱”。摩根对此深表赞同，并指出许多财务顾问遇到的最大难题，其实不是帮客户存钱，而是“教会客户花钱”。许多人在长达数十年的时间里被过度规训为“存钱、存钱、再存钱”，导致 65 岁退休时面对账户里的一大笔资金，却完全不知道该如何花掉它们。 摩根提到了畅销书作家拉米特·塞提（Ramit Sethi）的核心理念——每个人都需要弄清楚属于自己的“富足生活”（Rich Life）到底是什么。对不同的人来说，富足的定义千差万别： - **摩根的富足生活**：穿上运动卫裤坐在沙发上看书，或者与妻子在社区散步。为了在周三下午随时做这些事，他需要的是绝对的时间自主权与独立性。 - **拉米特的富足生活**：出门坐头等舱、穿高档精美的服饰，但在日常生活中，他却开着一辆破旧的本田轿车，毫不介意物质对比。 社会的惯用叙事总是强行给大众灌输标准答案：必须开豪车、住大豪宅、穿昂贵名牌才叫成功与幸福。然而，真正的幸福来自于找到那些让自己感到满足的个性化小事，并用金钱去购买实现这些小事的自由，而不是被社会的统一模板裹挟前行。 ### [56:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3388s) 怎样才算“足够”？重新定义 FIRE 与工作的意义 面对外部社会的消费主义洗脑，史蒂文提问：一个人究竟该如何在生活中感知到“怎样才算足够（Enough）”？摩根回顾了父亲当年突然决定退休的经历——父亲某天醒来，明确意识到自己从事这份职业已经够久了，财富也已足够，于是果断抽身离去。 谈及广受推崇的“财务自由，早早退休”（FIRE）运动，摩根指出了其潜藏的巨大漏洞：很多拼命存钱在 31 岁就宣告退休的人，仅仅闲了两个星期就无聊透顶；如果持续闲散 6 个月，甚至会陷入临床抑郁。人类天生具有渴望产出、体现生产力的本能。因此，拥有“足够”的财富并不意味着从此躺平、停止工作，而是意味着你获得了**只做自己想做的工作的权力**。 摩根转述了知名播客主兼投资人帕特里克·奥肖内西（Patrick O'Shaughnessy）常问下属的一个问题： > “如果你彩票中了 10 亿美元，但前提是你必须继续留在这家公司工作，你在这个岗位上会选择做什么，又会选择放弃做什么？” 几乎所有人都能毫不犹豫地回答出来：如果不再需要为钱发愁，他们会全心投入到自己热爱的核心项目上，而将所有琐碎无聊的破事一脚踢开。真正的“足够”带来的正是这种筛选权。 ### [58:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3500s) 临终遗憾、家庭安全感与《Die with Zero》 史蒂文提到临终关怀护士布罗妮·韦尔（Bronnie Ware）关于临终病人五大遗憾的调查研究：绝大多数人在生命终点时，最大的遗憾都是未能过上忠于自己的生活，或是花了太多时间盲目工作。人们往往直到躺在病床上无法挽回时，才意识到追求“永不满足”所付出的沉重代价。 摩根则从另一个独特的角度审视了临终反思。他承认这听起来或许有些沉重，但他常叩问自己：如果明天就躺在临终病床上，自己会后悔辛勤工作并存下一大笔钱吗？答案是**绝对不会**。对他而言，最深沉的幸福与安心，莫过于确信自己的妻子以及 8 岁大的儿子、4 岁大的女儿在经济上能得到周全的保障。与之相反，如果临终时看着弱小的儿女，心里却想“你们未来的生活彻底完蛋了”，那才是他无法承受的终极悔恨。他绝不会在临死前回味那些自己没买的豪车、没住的大房子或没穿的名牌衣物。 两人随后探讨了比尔·珀金斯（Bill Perkins）所著的《尽归尘土》（Die with Zero，或译《死时归零》）。该书提出了一个颠覆性的代际财富观点： - 如果你打算给子女留下一笔财富，千万不要拖到自己临死之时。 - 绝大多数人离开人世时已近 90 岁，届时子女也已步入 60 岁的花甲之年，这笔钱对他们的生活往往已起不到决定性的改善作用。 - 应该在子女最需要资金的黄金时期——通常是 30 到 40 岁之间，面临成家立业、抚养下一代的高压阶段——将钱给予他们。 当然，过早给子女大笔财富也存在潜在的负面影响，这随即引出了关于财富继承与后代培养的新思考。 ### [01:00:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3626s) 财富与育儿的博弈：避免让金钱过早毁掉孩子的野心 史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）探讨了拥有大量财富后所面临的育儿抉择：当孩子提出想要学车、年满 18 岁离家上大学、或者看中了一套漂亮的公寓时，父母究竟应该因为“掏得起这笔钱”而直接买单，还是为了让他们吃些苦头、懂得生活不易而狠心拒绝。史蒂文坦言自己曾和女友激烈争辩：他主张以后带孩子出行必须让孩子坐经济舱，女友则坚决反对。两人最终妥协达成协议——等到孩子大约 12 岁时，就必须坐经济舱，以此体会事物的真实价值。 摩根·豪瑟（Morgan Housel）对此深有感触，并分享了一段此前从未公开提及的亲身教训。大约一年前，他带着当时年仅 7 岁的儿子坐了一次头等舱。登机前父母特意向孩子强调这绝非常态，但儿子一落地回家就迫不及待地向邻居、所有朋友和全校同学炫耀。这一幕让摩根当头棒喝，立刻下定决心“再也不这样做了”。他意识到优渥的物质会以惊人的速度惯坏一个人，甚至滋生出凌驾于他人之上的优越感，无形中过早拉高了孩子对生活的预期锚点。摩根直到 35 岁才首次坐上头等舱，此前他坐过整整 9000 次经济舱，因此那次升舱让他觉得自己是凭努力赚来的，倍感珍惜；而 7 岁就坐头等舱的孩子完全无法理解这种来之不易的满足感。 两人还谈到了查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）的一句经典名言。一位富豪朋友曾向芒格求教：“查理，如果我把所有钱都留给孩子，这会毁掉他们的抱负吗？”芒格干脆地回答：“当然会，但你还是得这么做。”对方追问原因，芒格说：“因为如果你不给，你的孩子会恨你一辈子。”摩根认为芒格的话虽显绝对，但至少揭示了 70% 到 80% 的残酷真相：对普通富裕家庭而言，父母往往陷入两难，要么在一定程度上削弱子女的奋斗进取心，要么冒着家庭反目成仇的风险。 - **野心的稀缺性与特例**：摩根指出，如果是 18 岁的比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）、马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）或埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）继承了 10 亿美元，他们的抱负丝毫不会动摇；但对绝大多数普通人（包括摩根自己）而言，最初的驱动力往往来自对“无法出人头地”的极度恐惧。绝大多数人若被赐予一条轻松的人生坦途，都会毫不犹豫地全盘接受。 --- ### [01:03:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3799s) 投资中的耐力：巴菲特的“按兵不动”与散户的时代红利 史蒂文提出，赚钱与守钱是两种截然不同的技能，而在获取财富的过程中，“耐力”与“耐心”是核心壁垒——无论市场如何动荡，投资者最需要的往往是“忘了密码并把手压在屁股底下坐着不动”。沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）曾数年不进行任何大笔资本配置，芒格也曾直言，成为优秀投资人最难的事就是“坐在屁股上无所事事”（sit on your ass and do nothing）。 摩根证实，这正是伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）长盛不衰的秘诀。当时伯克希尔账面上坐拥约 1500 亿美元的巨额现金。回顾其 60 年的历史，其运作模式极为纯粹：积攒庞大现金，耐心等待长达 10 年，在罕见的重大机遇降临时倾囊出击，随后再次回归漫长的等待与积累。千载难逢的优质机会本就极其罕见，可能十年才出现一次，绝不可能让人每天打开股票账户就能随手捡到。 对普通投资者而言，耐心与耐力占据了成功要素的 99%。低成本指数基金为大众铺平了道路，任何人都可以通过手机下载应用（如 Robinhood）轻松买入。摩根提醒道，人们往往忽视了这种便利在过去是不可想象的：仅仅 20 年前，投资是高净值人群的特权，散户必须托关系结识股票经纪人，通过昂贵的电话委托、签署厚重的纸质文件并支付离谱的高额佣金。大众如今应当珍惜这种门槛彻底消除的时代红利。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 伯克希尔·哈撒韦的经典资本配置循环 accDescr: 展示巴菲特与伯克希尔在长周期中通过积攒现金、等待时机、全力出击到重返积累的闭环流程。 subgraph CapitalCycle["伯克希尔的资本模式"] A["积攒大量现金储备\n（充沛流动性）"] B["耐心等待周期机会\n（常年按兵不动）"] C["罕见危机/窗口来临\n（十年一遇机会）"] D["大规模集中部署资本\n（果断全额出手）"] end A --> B B --> C C --> D D --> A ``` --- ### [01:05:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=3920s) 赚钱与守钱的双重思维：年轻人为何应该去“古怪的公司”冒险 摩根进一步剖析了“赚钱”与“守钱”在思维模式上的对立统一： - **赚钱的本质**：需要充沛的乐观主义，敢于承担风险、放手一搏（swing for the fences），坚信未来会有超额回报。 - **守钱的本质**：则是彻底的保守主义、敬畏与警惕。必须时刻防范不可预测的黑天鹅事件（如珍珠港事件、9/11 事件），在财务分配和心态上留足安全边际，熬过漫长岁月中的种种意外与混乱。 针对史蒂文提出的问题——“一个 20 岁出头、身无分文、无房无车无家庭负担的年轻人，是否应该全力去博取巨大风险？”摩根给出了反直觉的建议。尽管年轻人拥有长达 50 年的投资跑道，但这恰恰是人生中最脆弱的阶段：被裁员的概率最高、职业轨迹最不稳定、情感生活也极易变动。因此，在财务层面，年轻人依然需要留存充足的现金流动性作为缓冲垫，等建立起底线防线后，再去进行高风险尝试。 但在职业选择上，摩根给出了截然相反的进取建议：走出校园后，绝不要为了稳妥而进入高盛（Goldman Sachs）、苹果（Apple）或德勤（Deloitte）这类蓝筹大厂，而是应该加入“古怪的初创公司”（weird company）。 - **职业风险与年龄错配**：到了 40 岁，背负着房贷和抚养两个孩子的责任，人们无法再承受波折，那才是寻求大公司丰厚福利和稳定薪水的时候；而 22 岁毫无羁绊时，最不应该换取的是平庸的稳定。 - **大公司的晋升天花板**：大企业的晋升路径极其线性可预测——两年分析师、晋升高级分析师、再升协理（Associate），这种可预见性彻底锁死了成长与回报的上限。 - **初创公司的试错知识**：在古怪的小公司里，年轻人能极为近距离地目睹业务的挫折与崩溃，而失败正是认知的最快来源。初创公司只有两种走向：要么迅速倒闭，让人在失败中吸取高密度经验；要么彻底爆发，带来不可估量的飞跃。在年轻时经历这些洗礼，才能真正锤炼出受用一生的认知壁垒。 ### [01:08:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4094s) 大公司的“金手铐”与长尾效应（Long Tails） 在职场起步时选择安全的大公司还是充满不确定性的小公司，对个人长远发展有着决定性影响。如果一开始就在过于稳定的大公司起步，往往会陷入“金手铐”（golden handcuffs）的困境——沉溺于丰厚的薪水和优渥的福利，从此再也不敢冒险。随着年龄增长，到了 40 岁左右，即使内心渴望去疯狂的小公司闯荡，也会因为房贷、两个孩子的抚养压力以及退休储蓄的重担，完全丧失了冒风险的能力。 摩根·豪瑟（Morgan Housel）在此引出了投资乃至整个人生中最核心的概念之一——“长尾效应”（Long Tails）。在风险投资（VC）行业中，这种现象尤为显著：在风投机构所做的每 50 笔投资里，统计上有半数会彻底血本无归，大约 10 笔表现平平，仅有 1 到 2 笔会带来惊人的超额回报，而这极少数的几笔交易却支撑了整个基金 100% 的收益。长尾现象在美股市场同样成立：全美有数千家上市公司，但绝大部分市值和长期回报全由少数几家巨头（如苹果、特斯拉、微软等前十名公司）驱动。既然如此，为什么不只买这 10 家公司？答案是没有人能提前预知谁会成为下一个赢家，而广泛分散持有千百家公司的真正意义，恰恰在于确保未来的十倍、百倍巨头必然包含在自己的投资组合之中。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 投资领域的长尾效应示意图 accDescr: 展示风险投资中50笔投资的分流情况，说明少数成功案例如何驱动全部回报。 A["投资组合：50 笔投资"] --> B["约 25 笔：彻底失败（亏损）"] A --> C["约 10 笔：表现平平（保本微利）"] A --> D["1 至 2 笔长尾黑马：产生爆发式超额利润"] D --> E["驱动整个基金 100% 的投资回报"] ``` ### [01:10:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4206s) 预测的虚幻与像“男性星座运势”般的图表 投资市场最重要的认知是保持谦逊。很多读者阅读关于金钱的书籍，期望学到超越他人的秘诀或高超技巧，但最重要的领悟往往是承认“我不知道”。摩根·豪瑟坦言，他写作《金钱心理学》首先是写给自己的，而最深刻的体会不仅是自己不知道未来，而且“其他人也同样不知道，所有人都是在投资市场里硬着头皮吹牛和胡诌”。 史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）分享了一个生动的现象：他在一个加密货币群聊里，总有一位朋友热衷于发布各种预测走势图，线条永远整齐地指向“右上角暴涨”。有人戏称这些预测图其实就像“男性的星座运势”——即使大家都心知肚明这纯属胡说八道，却依然忍不住去读。这种行为背后的心理机制是为了对抗内心的焦虑与压力：所有人都隐约感知到未来是完全不可知的，这种不确定性带来了巨大的痛苦；而为了减轻这种痛苦，人们便寄希望于寻找那些信誓旦旦声称“我知道未来会怎样”的人来寻求安慰。 ### [01:11:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4287s) 试错心态：亚马逊与奈飞的失败哲学 长尾效应的本质同样体现在卓越企业的创新机制中。亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos）在致股东信中曾指出，亚马逊必须成为全世界“最适合失败的地方”。贝索斯打比方说，团队每次挥棒 10 次，往往有 9 次都会送进“亚马逊墓地”——比如无人问津的搜索引擎 A9.com 以及遭遇彻底惨败的智能手机 Fire Phone；但那十分之一打中的球（如 AWS 云服务，年营收数百亿美元）就足以弥补整座墓地所有的沉没成本。当分析师在电话会议上质疑 Fire Phone 的惨淡收场时，贝索斯的回答展现了极高的格局：“如果你觉得那次失败算大，那就等着瞧吧，你还没见过什么世面呢。” 这种商业逻辑的核心在于以可承受的微小成本持续下注，换取非对称的期权价值（optionality）： - **充足的试错容量**：只要单次下注的筹码可控，不伤筋骨，企业就可以不停尝试数千种可能，即使 990 种失败，剩下的 10 种也足以创造天文数字的回报。 - **奈飞的高管汇报**：多年前奈飞高管向 CEO 汇报时自豪地表示“我们出品的新电影全都成功了”，CEO 却直斥“这太糟糕了”，因为全部成功意味着公司冒的风险远远不够。 - **酒店定价法则**：正如一家酒店如果每天房间都百分之百爆满，说明房间定价太低了；只有保留 10 间空房，才能证明其余房间定出了足够获取最大收益的高价。 - **Spotify 的“犯错率”指标**：Spotify 创始人丹尼尔·埃克（Daniel Ek）曾在节目中直言，他最关心的核心指标之一就是团队的“犯错率”（mistake rate），他不仅不想消灭错误，反而极力要求公司提高犯错频率，以此维持创业初期的敏捷与冒险精神。 ### [01:14:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4459s) 成功引发的引力：保持奔跑与警惕自满 史蒂文·巴特利特提到，随着播客业务取得巨大成功，他在车上与搭档吉玛（Jima）讨论时警惕地指出：当前面临的最大威胁正是“自满”（complacency）。很多人在取得成功后，心态会立刻从“进攻”转向“防守”，跟不上世界的演变步伐，最终被年轻、充满拼劲、具有更高风险偏好的挑战者夺走成果。 摩根·豪瑟在其著作《不变的法则》（Same as Ever）的“保持奔跑”一章中精准提炼出这一规律： - **竞争优势具有短暂性**：成功本身往往孕育了自身走向衰败的种子。 - **成功的自身引力**：一旦拥有竞争优势，会有无数股力量拉扯着你远离这种优势，而其中最大的拉力就是“懒惰与安逸”。登顶之后的懈怠，是无数企业和个人职业生涯跌落的根源。 - **杰瑞·宋飞（Jerry Seinfeld）的引退启示**：著名情景喜剧演员宋飞在节目最如日中天时选择急流勇退。他敏锐地察觉到，赋予他创作灵感的核心土壤正在消失——在成名之前，他可以随意坐在街头咖啡馆或熟食店里，默默观察普通大众如何点咖啡、点三明治，从中汲取鲜活的社会幽默；但成名后万众瞩目，他再也无法隐身于市井观察真实的生活，创作源泉不可逆转地枯竭了。 ### [01:16:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4588s) 创始人的技能诅咒：创业成功与规模化管理的冲突 摩根·豪泽尔（Morgan Housel）指出，许多首席执行官都会面临一个严峻问题：让他们最初取得成功的特质，在公司发展到下一阶段时往往荡然无存。初创期时，创始人靠着坚韧不拔的草根冲劲（scrappy startup founder）和极致的产品打磨能力脱颖而出；但随着公司做大做强，他们被迫分心去担任人力资源主管、财务专家、营销官等各种角色，精力被严重分散，反而无法投入到自己最擅长的事情上。 最典型的例子莫过于 Uber 的联合创始人特拉维斯·卡兰尼克（Travis Kalanick）。豪泽尔直言，在将一家像 Uber 这样的企业从零快速扩张到全球规模的维度上，全世界可能没有人比特拉维斯更厉害；但在管理一家庞大的巨型公司方面，几乎很少有人能比他更糟糕。特拉维斯在某一特定能力上做到了世界顶尖，但这种能力并无法直接套用到企业生命的后续周期。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 创始人能力与企业生命周期的错配 accDescr: 展示创始人从创业初期擅长的技能到大企业管理时面临的技能错配 subgraph Phase1["初创扩张阶段"] A["草根创业心态与产品打磨"] --> B["超高速规模化扩张<br/>（如 Uber 特拉维斯）"] end subgraph Phase2["成熟成熟阶段"] B --> C["企业体量剧增"] C --> D["被迫承担多重角色<br/>（HR、财务、行政公关）"] D --> E["脱离核心竞争优势<br/>管理陷入混乱与困境"] end ``` ### [01:17:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4652s) 功成名就后的最大挑战：学会“什么都不做” 斯蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）分享了一段对他影响至深的经历。当年他离开一手创立的公司后，已经实现了完全的财务自由。迷茫之中，他致电自己的长期导师兼好友、Spotify 的早期投资人沙基尔·汗（Shaquille Khan，认识其创始人丹尼尔·埃克 Daniel Ek）。巴特利特问沙基尔：“我现在该用我的人生做些什么？” 沙基尔给出了一个令他难忘的警醒：“斯蒂芬，你之前之所以成功，是因为你当时充满饥饿感（hungry）。但你必须清醒地意识到，你现在已经不可能再为了同样的理由去感到饥饿了。”过去巴特利特之所以拥有令人难以置信的自律、每周 7 天待在办公室，是因为当时他骨子里是一个极度缺乏安全感、拼死为了生存而战的穷小子。如今这种生存危机已不复存在。沙基尔勒令他必须做一件全天下最难的事——“整整一年坐着什么都别干（sit on your hands for a year）”。不要急于冲回去做同类的营销业务，而是静下心来，等待新的灵感与新的渴望出现。 豪泽尔对此深表赞同：人的内在动机随着时间必然会演化与重塑。许多人最危险的地方在于没有看清这一点——即便财富自由后动机减退，却依然试图盲目投入创立另一家新企业，最后对新项目的失败感到震惊。 - **动机变迁的规律**：早期的拼搏源于生存危机与不安全感；成功后若试图复刻过去的模式，容易失去驱动力。 - **休息一年的哲学**：抵制立刻启动相似业务的冲动，给心灵留白，直到真正具有野心的新事物被点燃。 ### [01:19:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4759s) 亿万富豪的执念：寻找下一个恐怖的“登月目标” 沙基尔随后点醒巴特利特，如果真的想再次激起斗志，就必须挑选一个“大到令人生畏、令人毛骨悚然的目标（moonshot）”。这正是埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）收购 Twitter（现 X）的原因——马斯克早已贵为全球首富，普通的创业甚至已经让他感到些许无聊，于是他必须去挑战一个甚至连他这样的人都极难驾驭的疯狂挑战。豪泽尔风趣地吐槽道：“这就好比买下 Twitter 然后把它经营到快要崩塌一样。”豪泽尔与巴特利特谈到，绝大多数人在身家达到 300 万到 1,000 万美元时就会果断退休止步，而身家达到 100 亿美元的人每天早上醒来还要继续拼命，就是因为他们对金钱本身早已没有概念，骨子里全是对竞争的无尽渴望与狂热执念。 巴特利特回忆自己在 24 岁时曾在曼彻斯特拜访过两位当地家喻户晓的亿万富豪。坐在他们富丽堂皇的办公室里，直视他们的眼睛询问“你为什么还要这么拼命”时，巴特利特震惊地发现：驱动他们的早已不是财富，而是单纯的竞争欲望；但与此同时，这两位富豪也是他见过“最痛苦、最悲惨的人（the most miserable people）”。其中一位富豪的儿子曾亲口向巴特利特诉苦，说自己的父亲每天去上班但内心极其不快乐。 豪泽尔补充道，他在《一如既往》（*Same as Ever*）中有一章专门写那些“天生的狂人（natural maniacs）”与野生心智。马斯克在 30 岁左右时就敢于单挑通用、福特、克莱斯勒三大汽车巨头以及 NASA，这类人永远不可能把钱投入市政债券然后跑去乡下农场安度余生。在豪泽尔看来，这种超级巨富往往处于被未解难题深深折磨的状态（tortured），他们的传记里极少能看到普通人眼中的幸福与安逸。 ### [01:21:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=4914s) 两种财富人生：MySpace 创始人汤姆 vs. 扎克伯格 豪泽尔提出了一个极其鲜明的对比：MySpace 联合创始人汤姆（Tom Anderson）与 Meta 创始人马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）的人生路径： | 比较维度 | MySpace 创始人汤姆 | Meta 创始人马克·扎克伯格 | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **退出/身家状态** | 早期将公司出售（以约 5,800 万美元甚至数亿美元出售给新闻集团/Viacom 体系），获得丰厚但并非天文数字的财富（约 5,000 万美元量级） | 坐拥千亿美元级别身家，始终掌舵庞大科技帝国 | | **日常生活状态** | 带着女友在巴厘岛徒步环游世界，在 Instagram 上分享风景，过着真正自由惬意的生活 | 每年被传唤到美国国会接受质询，为所有社会弊病背黑锅；面临股价暴跌 70% 的巨大市值压力 | | **心理与生活质感** | 毫无社会重压，享受财富带来的时间自主权 | 每天清晨背负无尽压力醒来，时刻处于精神紧绷状态 | 豪泽尔直言，如果要二选一，他会毫不犹豫地选择当汤姆，而不是扎克伯格。 面对豪泽尔的选择，巴特利特从动机心理学（Daniel H. Pink 等人的研究）提出了另一层剖析：对这类顶级 CEO 而言，**压力本身就是一种成瘾药物**。正如游戏心理学一样，人类不可能一遍又一遍玩“第一关”，必须关卡越来越难、填字游戏越来越复杂，心智才能被完全唤醒。这些超级富豪对挑战的“胃口”被无限撑大，只有解决更宏大、更复杂的难题才能让他们保持专注。 豪泽尔最后举了比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）的例子作为印证：盖茨在 2000 年想通并退出了微软的商业争霸，但他并没有退隐江湖，而是立刻奔向了在他心目中更为庞大、复杂的难题——如何最有效地散尽家财，以及如何在地球上彻底根除疟疾。即使从商业中抽身，这些人的心智依然必须锚定在常人难以企及的庞大问题之上。 ### [01:24:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5062s) 对挑战的成瘾与人类对“必要压力”的渴求 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）或比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）这类商业巨擘的脑回路中，根本不存在“赚够了就退休、安坐家中读书度日”的选项。摩根·豪泽尔（Morgan Housel）与史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）探讨指出，这类顶尖人物往往一旦解决了一个难题，就会立刻扑向另一个在他们看来更加棘手、规模更大的新挑战——他们本质上是对“挑战本身成瘾”。但这种特质并非仅存在于超级富豪身上，豪泽尔认为，每个人在某种程度上都需要生活中存在一定底线的压力与冲突。 人类的一大讽刺在于，我们总在幻想着如何彻底消灭压力，每天早晨醒来都能置身于无忧无虑的“极乐世界（Nirvana）”，但现实中没有人能真正承受完全没有挑战的生活。摩根强调，如果一个人在现实中缺乏真正的困扰与阻力，大脑往往会自发地“制造假想问题”。许多坐拥巨额财富的富人之所以会为极度微不足道的小事焦虑抓狂，正是因为他们的心理机制需要这种阻力与摩擦力来维持运转。 --- ### [01:25:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5119s) “正确性”的陷阱：跨领域的过度自信 史蒂文由此延伸到成功人士极易陷入的另一个心理误区：成为自身“正确性”的受害者。当一个人在商业或投资中连续做对了几次重大决策，内心就会积累起一种理所当然的证据感，坚信自己下一次也必然正确。这种顺境中滋生的盲目自信，往往正是溃败的开端。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 成功导致的过度自信陷阱 accDescr: 流程图展示从单一领域的成功、忽视运气，到跨领域自负并最终导致决策失败的过程 subgraph DomainSuccess ["单一领域胜利"] A["特定领域取得巨大成功"] --> B["忽视运气成分与偶然性"] end subgraph EgoInflation ["能力错觉膨胀"] B --> C["过度自信：将专业能力泛化"] C --> D["跨界自负：自认政治、医疗等全能"] end subgraph Downfall ["制衡缺失与溃败"] D --> E["身边缺乏敢于直言的反对者"] E --> F["在盲区中做出灾难性决策"] end ``` 豪泽尔进一步剖析，这种现象最危险的表现是“跨领域的自负膨胀”。当某人在特定行业取得非凡成就时，他们不仅会低估运气在其中起到的作用，还会想当然地认为自己的智慧可以无缝迁移至所有领域。例如，极其成功的投资人会笃定自己也能成为高明的政治家或流行病学专家；顶级名校毕业的医学博士往往在股市中惨败，因为他们认定“既然我足够聪明、能拿下医学博士，挑选股票自然不在话下”。这种将特定专业能力等同于全知全能的过度自信，往往成为聪明人最致命的阿喀琉斯之踵。 --- ### [01:26:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5175s) 杰西·利弗莫尔的悲剧：善于赚钱却不懂守钱 史蒂文提到豪泽尔书中最令人难忘的警示故事：那些曾精准预言股市走向、违抗市场共识赚得盆满钵满的先驱，最终几乎无一例外地将财富悉数吐回。豪泽尔在此详述了20世纪初传奇投机客杰西·利弗莫尔（Jesse Livermore）的大起大落。利弗莫尔是当时华尔街最耀眼的交易天才，在1929年大崩盘中做空赚取了天文数字，一生中曾四次积累起按通胀调整后等同于亿万富翁的财富，却也四次陷入彻底破产。 利弗莫尔是世界上最擅长“赚大钱”的人，却对“保住财富”一无所知。即使坐上世界首富的宝座，他脑海中也从未有过“已经足够”的概念，而是选择压上更大的筹码、挥动更重的球棒。财富越多，他渴望承担的风险反而越大，这种心理结构让他的悲剧结局在最初就已注定。在第四次破产后，心力交瘁的利弗莫尔最终在一家酒店的衣帽间饮弹自尽。 - **自信与能力的脱节**：商业与投资的成功往往会让一个人的自信心膨胀速度远远甩开其实际能力的增长，而当事人极难对此进行自我诊断。 - **“点头之交”的共谋**：贫穷或默默无闻时，周围人会直言不讳地指出你的愚蠢；然而一旦成为腰缠万贯的老板，即便你说出荒谬绝伦的想法，雇员和崇拜者也会附和顺从，使得成功者彻底失去纠错的反馈机制。 --- ### [01:28:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5299s) 谦逊的制衡：罗马凯旋式的耳语者与查理·芒格的角色 面对财富与成功带来的致命膨胀，唯一的解药是刻意追求的“谦逊”。豪泽尔援引了古罗马的经典传统：当罗马将军凯旋而归、在万人欢呼的盛大游行中沐浴无上荣耀时，其战车身旁必须站着一名奴隶，在将军耳边不断低语提醒：“你并不伟大，你只是个凡人。”这种制度化的当头棒喝，意在强行将身处神坛的征服者拉回现实，警惕人性的脆弱与易错。 豪泽尔指出，许多长期立于不败之地的杰出企业家和投资大师，身边都有一个类似角色的制衡搭档。沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）与查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）的关系便是典范。芒格在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的核心职责之一，就是在巴菲特产生盲目冲动或自负想法时，毫不留情地当面直言他在“犯傻”。一个手握无限权力的领袖能够全然信任这样一位敢于泼冷水的伙伴，而后者又拥有直言不讳的风骨，是企业基业长青中最稀缺的护城河。 --- ### [01:29:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5373s) 中场赞助：商务飞行特惠与掌控睡眠节律的温控科技 史蒂文在此处插播了本期节目的两家赞助品牌信息： - **英国航空（British Airways）商务舱特惠**：英国航空正开启大规模商务舱促销，往返纽约、波士顿和芝加哥等航线的商务舱机票最高可节省1,000英镑，同时提供覆盖欧美顶奢酒店的机酒打包优惠。史蒂文称道其不仅提供平躺睡床和机上娱乐系统，更以细致入微的机上服务著称。 - **Eight Sleep 智能温控床垫套（Pod Cover）**：史蒂文分享了彻底改变其生活品质的科技床垫。该设备能根据人体自然节律在整夜动态调节温度——入睡时保持凉爽，深睡期进一步降温，清晨唤醒前微微回温，以引导更深度的恢复性睡眠。史蒂文坦言睡眠已成为他当下最看重的健康指标，他每天清晨第一件事就是查看睡眠数据，以此来规划当天的工作负荷、会议安排乃至就寝时间；听众使用专属优惠码可立减150美元。 --- ### [01:31:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5508s) 盲区防线：用高储蓄对抗自负，在巅峰时刻保持敬畏 回到讨论，史蒂文直言成功所滋生的盲区是他日常最深层的担忧。面对不可避免的认知局限，他的首要应对策略非常朴素却极其有效：“史蒂夫，多存一大笔钱吧，因为当你犯错的那一天到来时，你绝不能因此倾家荡产。”充足的现金缓冲是抵御盲目自负与周期无常最强硬的安全网。 与此同时，真正的谦逊还体现在懂得何时谢幕。史蒂文谈到，当自己的职业生涯迎来落幕之时，他希望能够怀抱由衷的感恩之心说一句“感谢让我经历过这一切”，并因早已储备好充足的财富，而能从容地把接力棒交到下一代手中。对话在此处引向了丹泽尔·华盛顿（Denzel Washington）在奥斯卡颁奖礼风波后对威尔·史密斯（Will Smith）的经典警示——正是在人生的巅峰时刻，恶魔才会悄然叩门。 ### [01:32:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5549s) 巅峰时刻的傲慢与真正谦逊的代价 对话从威尔·史密斯（Will Smith）在奥斯卡颁奖礼上掌掴克里斯·洛克（Chris Rock）的风波切入。事发后，丹泽尔·华盛顿（Denzel Washington）走上前对威尔说了一句极具震撼力的话：“在事业最巅峰的时刻，正是魔鬼找上门的时候。”摩根·豪瑟（Morgan Housel）指出，当一个人名声大噪、自视甚高，认为自己无所不能时，往往就是灾难降临的起点。抵御这种膨胀的唯一解药是真正的谦逊。他区分了“虚假谦逊”与“真实谦逊”：虚假谦逊是故作姿态地说“我啥也没干，纯属运气好”；而真实的谦逊则是清醒地承认“这是我通过辛勤工作和一些正确决策建立起来的，但我只是个普通人，和大家一样会犯错”。这种发自内心的认知不仅重要，更是维持长期、可持续成功的关键前提。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 成功与谦逊的循环逻辑 accDescr: 展示事业巅峰时如何因傲慢导致危机，以及真实谦逊带来的长期可持续性。 subgraph 傲慢陷阱 A["事业巅峰与极高名望"] --> B["自视甚高 / 认为无所不能"] B --> C["魔鬼找上门 / 陷入危机"] end subgraph 可持续成功之道 D["承认努力与决策"] --> E["保持清醒: 自身同样易犯错误"] E --> F["真正的谦逊与长期持续成功"] end ``` ### [01:33:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5594s) 成功与财富的“门票价格”：波动性与牺牲 史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）提到从摩根的书中获得的核心启示：致富所必须付出的代价，就是一路上承受波动（Volatility），这是通往成功的“入场券”（Cost of admission）。世间任何美好的事物都有代价，但这些成本大多没有明码标价，无法用清晰的数字直接衡量： * **投资的代价**：是承受市场的未知、剧烈波动以及暴涨暴跌。如果股市暴跌 30% 时，你能耸耸肩说“没什么大不了的，咬牙拿住”，那么十年后你就能收获财富。 * **成功事业的代价**：是加班加点工作，以及被迫牺牲陪伴家人的时间。 * **亲密关系的代价**：是不断为了对方妥协、牺牲自己的部分诉求。 摩根强调，人生中极大的成功就在于认清这些代价究竟是什么，并且心甘情愿地买单。因为无论是投资、职业还是家庭，这些门票都是绝对物超所值的。 ### [01:34:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5688s) 理解你的时间跨度（Time Horizon） 这种愿意承担波动的定力，要求每个人必须清醒地了解自己的“时间跨度”（Time Horizon）——即从当下到实现目标之间的距离。摩根表示，时间跨度因人而异，不仅仅取决于生理年龄，更取决于具体的人生目标。摩根自己的人生规划就拆分成了不同的阶段： * **创作与财务自主期**：达到一个工作仅凭个人喜好、不再受财务利益驱动的阶段，达成既定的写作目标后即可转身探索其他领域。 * **陪伴子女成长期**：在孩子步入敏感艰难的青少年时期时主动收缩工作，保证 7×24 小时随叫随到，给予充分的家庭支持。 * **后期退居幕后期**：随着年龄增长，减少工作量，将重心转向照顾年迈的父母或安享生活。 ### [01:35:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5756s) 买房是投资还是生活方式？ 针对“买房到底是一笔好投资还是坏投资”这一常见争论，摩根结合个人经历给出了反直觉的剖析。在二十多岁和三十岁出头时，他和妻子先后在七座不同的城市租房生活，无论是为了工作跳槽、妻子求学，还是纯粹为了好玩体验新城市，只要把钥匙交还给房东就能随时启程，那种无拘无束的机动性在当时无比珍贵。 然而，大儿子出生后，天平瞬间倾斜。摩根迫切需要一个谁也夺不走的稳固大本营，外加孩子吵闹尖叫，独立住宅可以尽情释放天性而不用担心打扰公寓隔壁的邻居。他认为，人们总喜欢拿着 Excel 表格算计“房产年化回报率 4.5%”，但这完全弄错了重点。针对理财作家拉米特·塞提（Ramit Sethi）推崇的“终身租房论”，摩根直言两人的分歧在于自己有两个年幼的孩子；如果没有孩子，他也乐意一辈子租房并频繁搬迁，但有了家庭后，稳定的学区、熟悉的邻里和持久的玩伴才是核心诉求。 ### [01:37:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5846s) 房产回报的百年真相与情感资产 史蒂文分享了自己刚下定人生第一套房的经历。他的哥哥（也是向他推荐摩根著作的人）曾告诫他：“不要靠买房赚钱，因为任何人都能买房，那里的回报率不会高；你应该去玩那些只有你能玩的专属商业游戏。”史蒂文的哥哥直言，买房在纯财务角度可能是个平庸甚至糟糕的决定，但在情感和社交生活上却是一笔极佳的决策，绝不能把自住房当成发财的工具。 摩根完全赞同这一观点，并透露自己在写完《金钱心理学》后换购了目前的房产。他明知自己付出了当时偏高的市场溢价，却丝毫不介意——这就像决定抚养孩子一样，如果你在养育下一代时算计要投入成百上千万美元的财务回报，那根本打一开始就不该生。自住房纯粹是一项生活方式选择，而非追求回报的资产。 - **罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）的百年数据**：诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·席勒的研究证明，在过去 150 年的美国历史上，扣除通胀因素后，大部分自住房的实际价格走势平缓如薄饼（flat as a pancake）。 - **历史异常期**：英美两国家庭过去二三十年间依靠房产暴富只是短暂的历史特例，正是这几十年的特殊红利极度扭曲并拉高了公众对房产增值的预期。 ### [01:40:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6018s) 纯粹为了发财而买房？快逃！ Steven 提出一个非常现实的情景：此时此刻收听节目的听众里，绝对有人刚刚递交了买房的报价（offer），而且他们这么做唯一的假设就是“买房能帮自己积累财富”。如果一个人买房完全是出于财务回报的考量，Morgan 会给他们什么建议？Morgan 的回答斩钉截铁：“快逃命去吧，绝对别买（Run for your life. Don't do it）。” Morgan 解释道，过去在美英的很多城市，租房市场几乎全是破烂差劲的房子，根本没有好房源可选。但在过去二十年里，情况发生了翻天覆地的变化——如今大部分城市的中心地带建起了无数高端豪华公寓，配备精美的花岗岩台面，居住体验极佳。人们绝不要陷入一种思维误区，以为租房就无法过上高品质生活。更残酷的现实是，如果你纯粹是为了财务目的去买房，你实际上是在借下巨额债务，去投资一项“在历史数据上表现极差、甚至常常处于亏损状态”的资产。Morgan 尖锐地反问：“借几十万美元去投一个历史上收益惨淡的标的，你觉得这说得过去吗？你心里真能好受吗？”Steven 笑着附和说，真想亲眼看看那些刚刚才费尽唇舌说服伴侣“买这套房子能让我们暴富”的人，在听到这番话时脸上会是什么表情。 --- ### [01:41:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6108s) 胜者非真理，而是“最佳故事” Steven 将话题转向 Morgan 的新书《Same as Ever: Timeless Lessons on Risk, Opportunity and Living a Good Life》（一如既往）。这本书由23个关于世界上“永恒不变的事物”的短篇故事组成。Steven 特别指出其中深深震撼自己的一章——“最会讲故事的人胜出（The best story wins）”。Steven 感叹，在商业、创业、投资、推介和销售中，绝大多数人一上来就抛出一堆事实、统计数据和冷冰冰的数字，而忽视了故事的统治级力量。 Morgan 强调，最终赢得胜利的往往不是最正确、最优秀或数学上最精确的答案，而是那个能让大众跟着频频点头认同的人。为了证明这一点，Morgan 举了著名纪录片导演 Ken Burns 的例子。Ken Burns 执导过关于美国南北战争、二战、越战等题材的经典纪录片，他作品里的史实信息其实大家都早已熟知，并没有什么全新的知识增量，但他依然取得了不可思议的商业与口碑成功，因为他是这个时代最伟大的叙事大师。只要能讲出一个好故事，哪怕素材尽人皆知，人们也会排着队踏破门槛来听。脱口秀喜剧演员也是同理，他们拿日常中最显而易见、最琐碎的小事编织出精彩绝伦的故事，就能瞬间抓住所有人的注意力。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 数据说服与故事说服的对比机制 accDescr: 对比冷冰冰的统计数据与生动故事在大脑认知、记忆留存及决策影响上的巨大差异。 subgraph DataApproach["传统事实说服路径"] A["冷冰冰的事实 / 数据 / 公式"] --> B["理性审查与被动记忆"] B --> C["考完即忘 / 难以引发共鸣"] end subgraph StoryApproach["故事驱动传播路径"] D["生动细节 + 个人情感故事"] --> E["直击大脑本能 / 消除认知不确定性"] E --> F["深信不疑 / 形成终身深刻记忆"] end ``` 两位对谈者进一步探讨了“危险的故事”：最危险的故事莫过于“人们内心本来就渴望听到的故事”。只要你顺应受众的心理预期去编织谎言，即便事实完全错误，大众也毫不在意。例如“疫苗会导致自闭症”的阴谋论之所以传播甚广，就是切中了这种心理。Steven 分享了神经科学家 Tali Sharot 曾向他讲述的美国辩论名场面：当被问及疫苗安全时，一位专家端出了详实的事实、数据与科学论据，冷冷地断言疫苗不会致病；而唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）则即兴讲起了一个生动、极具画面感的故事——他绘声绘色地描述自己一个朋友（可能根本不存在）带着孩子去打针，针头“巨大无比”，打完孩子就出现了问题。尽管 Tali 自身是顶尖神经科学家、明知那纯属无稽之谈，但在听到那个极其生动逼真的故事瞬间，连她都忍不住下意识转头看了看自己的女儿，心里猛地一颤。Morgan 引用尤瓦尔·赫拉利（Yuval Noah Harari）在《人类简史》中的观点指出，人类之所以能从灵长类中脱颖而出，正是因为讲故事和记忆故事的独特能力。学生在考试前死记硬背数学公式，考完五分钟就忘得一干二净；但如果是两岁时听过的一个好故事，却能铭记一生。故事不仅是简化纷繁世界的工具，更是消除人类内心不确定性的强大武器。 --- ### [01:45:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6336s) 复利的双面刃：好事极其缓慢，坏事在一夜之间 谈及复利效应（compounding interest），Steven 指出人们在投资甚至人生规划中普遍只关注“正向复利”，却极少警惕微小负面因素如何在暗中持续复利、摧毁人生。在 Morgan 新书《Tiny and Magnificent》（微小与宏大）这一章节中，这种反直觉的规律再次令人深省。 Morgan 总结了一条核心规律：“好消息往往发生得极度缓慢，而坏消息往往来得极其迅猛（Most good news happens slowly and most bad news happens very fast）。” - **坏消息的爆发性**：例如新冠疫情几乎在一夜之间席卷全球、夺走数百万生命并让整个经济陷入停摆；“9·11”恐怖袭击从发生到结束不过短短数十分钟，瞬间爆发。 - **好消息的微小累积**：在过去70年里，人类在降低心脏病死亡率方面取得了惊天动地的进展，拯救了数以千万计的生命，但大众对此毫无感知。因为这种死亡率每年仅改善约 2%。每年 2% 的改善绝不会成为头条突发新闻（Breaking News），没有任何新闻媒介会大肆报道“今年心脏病死亡率降低了 1.4%”，但经过整整 70 年的持续复利累积，其成果改写了全人类的生存状态。这也解释了为什么媒体新闻总充斥着负面报道，这并非编导蓄意操弄人心，而是因为能在当下即时吸引眼球的往往都是突发性灾难。 与此同时，负面因素的缓慢复利同样具有毁灭性： - **吸烟的累积危害**：抽一根烟对身体几乎看不出任何实质伤害，但如果每天一根连续抽上30年，其后果将是灾难性的。 - **睡眠不足的长期侵蚀**：偶尔一晚没睡好无关紧要，但如果常年每晚只睡6个小时，年复一年累积下来的负面复利将大幅削减人的预期寿命。 为了生动解释这个极难被直观理解的复利概念，Steven 询问 Morgan 是如何向自己八岁的孩子或普通人通俗解释复利之威力的。Steven 原本打算在录音室准备一碗大米做实操演示，Morgan 赞同地表示，古老的“国际象棋棋盘放米粒”寓言正是阐释复利力量的绝佳模型——传说数百年前有人向国王进献棋盘，要求在第1个格子里放1粒米，第2个格子里放2粒米，每一格都比前一格翻倍……这种微小起步在指数级复利下的惊人爆发，正是解释复利本质的最优方式。 ### [01:48:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6516s) 复利与指数思维的“数学信仰” 摩根·豪泽尔（Morgan Housel）接着国际象棋棋盘放米粒的经典寓言谈起：在棋盘的第一格放一粒米，第二格放两粒，第三格放四粒，持续倍增下去，到了棋盘最后一格，其米粒总量已经超过了全世界现存大米的总和。这种不断倍增的增长方式，完全超出了人类的直觉认知。他引用好友迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）多年前在一篇博文里的类比：如果问一个人“8 + 8 + 8 + 8”是多少，任何人都能迅速在脑海中完成心算；但如果问“8 × 8 × 8 × 8”是多少，即便具备极高的数学天赋，绝大多数人也根本无法在脑中即时算出答案。 人类的大脑结构生来适应线性思维，对指数级思维极其迟钝。正是因为这种认知盲区，人们在现实中往往会严重低估坏习惯的累积伤害与好习惯的复利威力——例如低估长期吸烟对健康的毁灭性损耗，或是低估长期投资对财富带来的倍增效应。沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）99%以上的个人财富都是在他60岁之后才赚到的，这在直觉上极其不可思议。豪泽尔指出，理解复利几乎就像践行某种“数学层面的宗教信仰”（a mathematical religion）：尽管在电子表格里拉一组公式就能证明其数学逻辑，但要让大脑真正坚信复利在漫长时间维度下的惊人威力，往往需要一种类似于宗教般的信念飞跃（leap of faith）。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 线性思维与指数思维对比 accDescr: 对比人类直觉契合的线性思维与反直觉的指数/复利思维 subgraph Linear["线性思维 (直觉契合)"] L1["加法逻辑：8 + 8 + 8 + 8"] L2["大脑容易理解，无需门槛"] end subgraph Exponential["指数思维 / 复利 (反直觉)"] E1["乘法逻辑：8 × 8 × 8 × 8"] E2["严重低估长远影响<br/>(如吸烟危害、投资财富)"] E3["典型案例：巴菲特 99% 财富<br/>来自 60 岁之后"] E4["需要建立类似'宗教信仰'<br/>般的长远认知"] E1 --> E2 E2 --> E3 E3 --> E4 end ``` - **线性与乘法认知鸿沟**：人类可以毫不费力算出多项加法，却极难心算多项乘法（如连续相乘四次8），表明直觉对复利天然脱节。 - **巴菲特财富规律**：巴菲特超过99%的净资产积累发生在其60岁生日之后，是长期复利效应最极端的实证。 --- ### [01:50:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6615s) 困境的馈赠：危机与痛苦是创新的温床 主持人史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）提到豪泽尔在新书《一如既往》（*Same as Ever*）中的两个核心章节——《奇迹发生的时刻》（*When the Magic Happens*）与《本该如此艰难》（*It's Supposed to Be Hard*）。书中写道，压力、痛苦、不适、震惊和厌恶虽然带来悲剧性的破坏，却也是创造奇迹的催化剂；任何值得追求的事物，都必须以压力、不确定性、官僚主义、利益冲突、无理取闹、繁复流程与持续的自我怀疑作为门槛成本。豪泽尔表示自己之前并未刻意将这两章并置，但它们在底层逻辑上完全契合：无论是整个宏观社会还是个人微观生活，最重大的跃进往往伴随着灾难而生。 以人类历史为例，第二次世界大战带来了无法估量的死亡与毁灭，但就技术进步而言，没有任何时期比二战期间更具颠覆性——原子能、喷气式飞机、青霉素（盘尼西林）等现代社会的基石技术，均在二战的极端危机驱动下爆发式涌现。危机倒逼全世界最顶尖的头脑必须在巨大压力下联手攻克难关。个人层面的发展亦是同理。豪泽尔提到《低谷的益处》（*The Upside of Down*）一书所阐述的哲理：遭遇裁员、失恋或突发健康危机时，人在当下的痛苦中绝不可能看到所谓的“一线转机”（silver lining）；但数年后再回头看，那些至暗时刻往往重塑了人生的轨迹，成为职业或心智成熟最重要的转折点。 豪泽尔进一步分享了著名电视主持人斯蒂芬·科尔伯特（Stephen Colbert）的经历：科尔伯特在年幼时遭遇空难，父亲和两个哥哥不幸丧生。多年后科尔伯特在接受采访时坦言自己对此心存感激。面对公众的不解，他解释道，自己当然万分希望这场悲剧从未发生，但正是这场巨大的创伤，赋予了他深刻洞察他人情绪、与同样经历苦难之人产生深层共情的非凡能力。痛苦虽然沉重，却揭示了人性的深层底色。 - **社会进步机制**：二战推动了包括核能、航空喷气动力与抗生素应用在内的大规模关键科技跃进。 - **挫折的回溯效应**：被裁员在当时看似是职业生涯的毁灭性打击，若干年后常被视为职业转型或跃升的关键契机。 --- ### [01:53:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6783s) 财富与人生的终极命题：审视自我而非盲从建议 面对巴特利特关于“整场访谈给追求财富创造的听众留下何种核心总结”的提问，豪泽尔直言，自己的两本书《金钱心理学》（*The Psychology of Money*）与《一如既往》（*Same as Ever*）始终贯彻着同一个初衷——促使读者用全新的视角审视自己的生活。出版商曾极度反感他这种写作方式，并反复督促他：“你应该在书里给出具体的‘因此，你应当做X’的指导意见。” 但豪泽尔坚决拒绝在书中提供任何教条式建议（"never do I say and therefore you should do this"）。他的核心逻辑在于：作为作者，他根本不认识镜头或书页背后的具体个体，每个人有着完全不同的成长背景、承受能力与欲望目标，“连我自己的人生该怎么过我都还没完全搞明白，我又凭什么对你的人生指手画脚？”豪泽尔认为，一本书如果能引发读者深入思考“自己究竟想要什么”、“自己到底是谁”、“自己能承受什么与无法承受什么”，那么它的目的就已经达成了。 --- ### [01:53:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6837s) 最后一问：焦虑、遗憾与接纳“一切都会好起来” 按照播客的收尾传统，前一位神秘嘉宾为豪泽尔留下了一个问题：“你人生中最大的遗憾是什么？这段经历如何改变了你？” 豪泽尔坦诚分享了自己内心长期以来的心理状态。他透露自己一生中始终伴随着轻微的抑郁和焦虑倾向。如果能够乘坐时光机回到过去的不同人生节点，他最想对自己说的一句话就是：“一切都会好起来的。过程不会轻松，也不会完美，但最终一切都会过去。”他回望过去，最感慨的不是某个具体的错误选择，而是自己究竟浪费了多少宝贵的时间，去为那些几乎肯定永远不会发生的糟糕假想担惊受怕。即便如今在理性上彻底认清了这一点，他今晚、明天甚至下周，依然会忍不住为一些微不足道的小事焦虑。 豪泽尔总结道，他很难说这是一种彻头彻尾的遗憾，因为这种时刻伴随的担忧与警惕心在很多时候保护了他，使他在投资和人生道路上远离了灾难性的大麻烦。但如果能在过去多给自己一点宽容，早些接纳“事情终究会好起来”的心态，他的人生本可以过得更松弛、更快乐。 巴特利特赞叹豪泽尔作品的永恒价值，盛赞《金钱心理学》是他读过最好的理财书，而《一如既往》则通过极具洞察力的故事诠释了人性和生活的恒定法则；巴特利特幽默地表示，正是因为豪泽尔的智慧，自己这辈子不知道省下了几百万英镑。访谈在诚挚的相互致谢中圆满结束，节目随后切入赞助商 Huel 的结语。 - **豪泽尔的心智洞见**： - 焦虑和过度担忧具有双重属性：它夺走了内心的宁静与当下的快乐，但在客观上也充当了规避严重风险的安全网。 - 许多人一生中最大内耗并非来自现实打击，而是对“未曾发生且大概率永远不会发生”之事的预先恐惧。 ### [01:56:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6990s) 赞助商鸣谢与下期节目推荐：在忙碌中兼顾健康 在节目的尾声，主持人 Steven Bartlett 谈到了在快节奏工作生活中维持健康的实际挑战，并特别介绍了赞助商 Huel 的即饮系列（RTD, Ready to Drink）。他表示，这正是 Huel 即饮饮料发挥关键作用的地方：只需一瓶，就能在短短一分钟内摄入一顿营养完全均衡的代餐。对于日程排得极满的日常状态来说，这堪称健康层面的“真正救星”，更是他在最忙碌日子里的“盟友、朋友与伴侣”。它让追求宏大职业目标与维系个人身体健康之间不再非此即彼，使得两者能够在高强度的工作节奏中并驾齐驱。 Steven 向观众发出呼吁，无论此前从未尝试过 Huel RTD，还是近期健康饮食计划有所松懈、需要重新回到正轨，现在都是最好的契机。他建议大家通过下方简介中的链接订购一份，确保在忙碌的生活周期里依然保持充足营养。最后，针对还在寻找下一期收听内容的听众，Steven 补充道，团队发现喜欢本期内容的受众通常也会对频道最近上线的另一期精彩对话产生极大共鸣，相关剧集链接同样附在节目简介中供大家直接点击收听。 - **Huel RTD 即饮系列**：主打一分钟内摄入营养全面的均衡代餐，专为高强度忙碌日程设计，避免因追求事业目标而牺牲健康。 - **健康回归契机**：Steven 鼓励生活节奏被打乱或松懈的听众借此机会重新管理日常营养摄入。 - **延伸收听推荐**：节目简介中附有为喜爱本期访谈的听众定向推荐的关联剧集链接，方便继续深入探讨相关商业与人生话题。 ## Notable quotes > [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=0s) 如果你买房只是为了某种虚荣，赶紧停下，逃命去吧！ — 摩根·豪泽尔 > [05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=342s) 真正的财富是隐形的。它是你决定不买的那辆跑车，是你克制住没买的大豪宅，是你留在银行账户和资产配置里的安全垫。 — 摩根·豪泽尔 > [12:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=755s) 在违背自己意愿的时间表上去做你热爱的事情，其感觉与做你厌恶的事情并无二致。 — 摩根·豪泽尔 > [15:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=904s) 当你拒绝一份金钱的感觉比你接受它更美妙时，你才算得上富有。 — 纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（摩根·豪泽尔转述） > [18:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1100s) 幸福的第一法则就是保持低期望。 — 摩根·豪泽尔 > [22:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=1336s) 根本没有人在意开豪车的人本身，大家之所以想坐进豪车，只是误以为别人会在意自己。 — 摩根·豪泽尔 > [41:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2495s) 风险，就是当你自以为已经把一切都考虑周全之后，所剩下的那些东西。 — 卡尔·理查兹（摩根·豪泽尔转述） > [43:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2602s) 投资于准备，而非预测。 — 纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（摩根·豪泽尔转述） > [45:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2755s) 成功的投资，就是当你彻底把投资账户的密码给忘了。 — 史蒂芬·巴特利特 > [47:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=2868s) 沃伦·巴菲特 99% 的个人净资产，都是在他 60 岁生日之后才赚到的。 — 摩根·豪泽尔 > [01:32:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=5549s) 在事业最巅峰的时刻，正是魔鬼找上门的时候。 — 丹泽尔·华盛顿（摩根·豪泽尔转述） > [01:45:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ&t=6336s) 好消息往往发生得极度缓慢，而坏消息往往来得极其迅猛。 — 摩根·豪泽尔 ## Mentioned Morgan Housel, Steven Bartlett, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ronald Read, The Psychology of Money, Same as Ever, Die with Zero, Bill Perkins, Ramit Sethi, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, John D. Rockefeller, Stephen Hawking, Brent Beshore, Carl Richards, Jeff Bezos, Daniel Ek, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Tom Anderson, Bill Gates, Jesse Livermore, Denzel Washington, Will Smith, Robert Shiller, Ken Burns, Stephen Colbert, Huel, British Airways, Eight Sleep, Markel, Berkshire Hathaway, Spotify, Amazon, Netflix, Uber, Travis Kalanick ## Video description If you enjoy hearing about how to master the world of finance, I recommend you check out my conversation with Ramit Sethi, which you can find here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORqd9QAC8OY 00:00 Intro 02:23 Why Do You Write Books About Money? 04:14 The Psychology of Money & What Wealth Really Means 10:53 Why Not Having Control in Your Life Is Making You Unhealthy and Unhappy 14:05 Why You Need to Learn to Stop Pushing Your Financial Goals 18:20 The First and Most Important Rule of Happiness 22:16 The Most Valuable Financial Skill Anyone Can Have 25:35 The Most Important Saying for a Relationship or Career 27:48 Why Low Income People Are More Reckless With Money 32:17 How to Learn to Finally Save Your Money 35:55 A Tragic Incident That Taught Me My Most Valuable Lesson About Money 41:33 Investing and the Biggest Mistake Most People Make 45:55 The Best Advice on How to Invest Your Money 51:58 The Janitor That Became a Multimillionaire 54:41 Pensions 56:28 How Do We Know When Enough Is Enough? 59:34 Should We Save Our Money for Our Children? 01:03:19 Why You Should Never Check Up on Your Investments 01:07:34 The Benefits of Not Working for Big Companies 01:08:58 Why Everyone Is Bullshitting Their Way Through Investing 01:11:27 Why You Should Take That Risk 01:17:32 The Best Bit of Advice I Ever Received 01:26:15 The Biggest Factor That Will Ensure You Lose Your Money 01:31:48 The Confidence Rule Around Your Finances You Need to Know 01:41:55 The Power of a Great Story 01:44:42 The Power of Compounding Interest 01:50:15 Bad Times Often Change Us for Good 01:53:03 Wealth Creation Conclusion 01:53:57 The Last Guest’s Question You can purchase Morgan’s most recent book, ‘Same as Ever: Timeless Lessons on Risk, Opportunity and Living a Good Life’, here: https://amzn.to/467d77x Follow Morgan: Instagram: https://bit.ly/3spU4HK Twitter: https://bit.ly/40mE6uF Flightfund: https://flightfund.com/ My new book! 'The 33 Laws Of Business & Life' is out now: https://smarturl.it/DOACbook Listen on: Apple podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-diary-of-a-ceo-by-steven-bartlett/id1291423644 Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/7iQXmUT7XGuZSzAMjoNWlX Join this channel to get access to perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGq-a57w-aPwyi3pW7XLiHw/join FOLLOW ► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/steven/ Twitter: https://x.com/StevenBartlett?s=20 Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-bartlett-56986834/ Sponsors: British Airways: https://www.britishairways.com/en-gb/offers/sale Huel: https://g2ul0.app.link/G4RjcdKNKsb Eightsleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/uk/steven/ CODE: STEVEN (save $150 on the Pod Cover) [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOvLFT4v4LQ)

[0:00] 摩根·豪泽尔: 如果你买房只是为了某种虚荣，赶紧停下，逃命去吧！ [5:42] 摩根·豪泽尔: 真正的财富是隐形的。它是你决定不买的那辆跑车，是你克制住没买的大豪宅，是你留在银行账户和资产配置里的安全垫。 [12:35] 摩根·豪泽尔: 在违背自己意愿的时间表上去做你热爱的事情，其感觉与做你厌恶的事情并无二致。 [15:04] 纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（摩根·豪泽尔转述）: 当你拒绝一份金钱的感觉比你接受它更美妙时，你才算得上富有。 [18:20] 摩根·豪泽尔: 幸福的第一法则就是保持低期望。 [22:16] 摩根·豪泽尔: 根本没有人在意开豪车的人本身，大家之所以想坐进豪车，只是误以为别人会在意自己。 [41:35] 卡尔·理查兹（摩根·豪泽尔转述）: 风险，就是当你自以为已经把一切都考虑周全之后，所剩下的那些东西。 [43:22] 纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（摩根·豪泽尔转述）: 投资于准备，而非预测。 [45:55] 史蒂芬·巴特利特: 成功的投资，就是当你彻底把投资账户的密码给忘了。 [47:48] 摩根·豪泽尔: 沃伦·巴菲特 99% 的个人净资产，都是在他 60 岁生日之后才赚到的。 [92:29] 丹泽尔·华盛顿（摩根·豪泽尔转述）: 在事业最巅峰的时刻，正是魔鬼找上门的时候。 [105:36] 摩根·豪泽尔: 好消息往往发生得极度缓慢，而坏消息往往来得极其迅猛。

[2:23] Morgan Housel: When most people say I want to be a millionaire, what they actually mean is I want to spend a million dollars. [22:16] Morgan Housel: The most valuable financial skill that anybody can have is not needing to impress other people. If you don't need to impress other people, that is an asset on your balance sheet that is worth a billion dollars. [18:20] Stephen Hawking: My expectations were reduced to zero when I was 21... Everything else since then has been a bonus. [14:33] Nassim Nicholas Taleb: when the money that you deny tastes better than the money you accept [43:22] Nassim Nicholas Taleb: invest in preparedness, not in prediction [66:14] Morgan Housel: Don't go work for Goldman Sachs or Apple or Deloitte or something like that. Go for the weird startup where... you're going to learn something completely different. [70:58] Morgan Housel: What a lot of people want out of their investing forecasts or whatever it is, is they want to reduce the uncertainty that's giving them stress. [74:19] Morgan Housel: Competitive advantages tend to be short-lived, often because their success plants the seeds of their own decline... Success has its own gravity. [78:47] Morgan Housel: There's almost no biography of a very successful person like that... that you would read their biography and say, 'That life sounds great.' The word that I would use is tortured. [97:48] Morgan Housel: If you're doing it for financial reasons, you're probably about to borrow a shitload of money for an investment that historically has been a very bad investment... What are we doing here, man? [105:42] Morgan Housel: Since exponential thinking is not intuitive... it's almost like a mathematical religion because, just like a lot of religion, it almost takes a leap of faith to be like, 'I know it seems crazy, but this is what I believe.'

[0:00] if you're buying a house because you [0:02] don't do it run for your life Mr Morgan [0:05] H he's the author of the psychology of [0:08] money one of the bestselling business [0:09] books of this decade he can help anyone [0:12] build wealth and change their life the [0:14] world is split between people who don't [0:16] know how to start making money and [0:17] people who don't know when to stop [0:19] making money and if you are stuck in a [0:21] low-income job you feel like you don't [0:23] have the opportunity to generate wealth [0:25] but once you realize that opportunities [0:26] are available for everybody you can [0:28] choose where you want to live what job [0:30] you want when you retire because you can [0:32] be rich prove it people like Ronald Reed [0:35] and he was a janitor what does it take [0:37] to amass Mr Reed's $8 million Fortune [0:39] he's a fascinating story of somebody who [0:41] became Rich despite not having the [0:43] skills that you normally associated with [0:45] wealthy people then there's Warren [0:46] Buffett he's worth $100 billion do but [0:48] the real secret to their success [0:50] investing my parents are a great example [0:53] of this we were very poor no Financial [0:55] background and they have like minimal [0:56] financial interest but now they'd [0:57] probably be in the top 3% of [0:59] professional investors if you want to do [1:01] well with money you don't need to be a [1:03] genius if you have endurance in your [1:05] investing you're going to be filthy rich [1:07] but when most people say I want to be a [1:09] millionaire what they actually mean is I [1:11] want to spend a million dollars I want [1:13] some nice clothes bigger house the nicer [1:14] car ask yourself what is your [1:16] relationship with money if your [1:18] expectations rise faster than your [1:19] income you're never going to be happy [1:21] with your money that's the problem so if [1:22] I have1 what's the first thing that I [1:25] should do I keep it as painfully simple [1:28] as I can so [1:31] ladies and gentlemen you're about to [1:32] meet the man whose book changed my [1:34] entire life as it relates to money and [1:37] finance about four or five years ago my [1:40] brother who's a investment banker said [1:43] Steve there's one book I need you to [1:45] read about wealth investing and money in [1:47] finance and he passed me a book called [1:49] the psychology of money that book [1:52] changed my fortunes it is the reason [1:55] I've been a successful investor and it's [1:57] the reason I've been able to hold on to [1:59] my wealth and build it it's this man and [2:02] that's the reason why you need to stay [2:04] tuned and listen to this [2:06] [Music] [2:12] episode [2:13] Morgan you wrote what I would consider [2:17] to be the greatest book on money and [2:20] finance ever written I say that because [2:23] I remember when I came into money when I [2:25] was 25 20 no 27 27 28 years old and my [2:29] brother turned to me and said there's [2:31] one thing I ask of you he said you have [2:34] to read this book called the psychology [2:36] of money it will stop you losing all of [2:38] the money you've just earned from your [2:40] career and it changed my life I've [2:42] talked about it for years and years ever [2:44] since and that's why I was so Keen to [2:46] have this conversation with you because [2:47] I really believe if people choose to [2:49] listen to this conversation it stands [2:51] the chance of changing those two so [2:53] let's begin why of all the things that [2:56] you could do with your life Morgan why [2:58] are you writing books about the subject [3:01] matter that you explore what is the [3:02] reason well first that's a that's a big [3:04] statement that's a lot to live up to [3:05] it's kind of scary to hear that because [3:07] I've I've often been and this gets to [3:09] the why I I've defined it as selfish [3:12] writing where I write for an audience of [3:14] one and that is me and I like to think [3:16] of myself as a pretty selfless person [3:18] but for writing I don't try to say I'm [3:21] going to write a book for this person or [3:22] that person or that audience I write [3:25] what I'm interested in and I write it in [3:26] a way that I think is interesting and I [3:28] try to solve my own problem problems and [3:30] then I take a leap of faith that if this [3:32] is interesting to me and it's going to [3:34] help me maybe it'll help somebody else [3:36] that's very different from the [3:37] traditional writing style of saying know [3:39] your audience know your audience very [3:42] quickly turns into Pander to your [3:43] audience and I think a lot of people [3:45] maybe they don't even know it but if [3:46] they read a book and they don't [3:47] necessarily like it it's because they [3:48] were being pandered to they were being [3:50] spoken to in a way that a person would [3:52] never speak to them in real life so I [3:54] just this is almost like my diary I [3:56] think in terms of these are the topics [3:58] that I found interesting for myself and [4:01] so I guess that's the why I feel like [4:03] I've really found myself in a career [4:05] where I can just figure out my own [4:06] problems and try to figure out what I [4:09] think and what's interesting to me and [4:11] then kind of put it out to the world and [4:13] then hope that other people will enjoy [4:14] it let's start with the psychology of [4:16] money what is the benefit to my life if [4:17] I understand the things that are written [4:19] in the psychology of money well let me [4:21] start with I think most Finance books [4:24] will their their answer to that question [4:26] would be when you're done with this book [4:27] you will know how to pick stocks better [4:29] you will know how to balance your [4:30] checking account or what credit cards [4:32] that you should use for my book I think [4:34] when you're done with it I hope that you [4:36] will just look in the mirror and say who [4:39] am I which is kind of what I did with [4:41] this trying to figure out who I am and [4:43] what I want and why I was insecure why I [4:45] wanted to show off to other people the [4:47] car that I drove so if you become more [4:50] introspective about who you are and what [4:52] you want out of life and what money can [4:54] do for you and cannot do for you and [4:56] become a little bit more introspective [4:58] about why you think [5:00] about where you are in the social [5:02] hierarchy and greed and fear and why you [5:04] think about these things that you do I I [5:07] honestly think that I I I hope at least [5:09] because it was this way for me that when [5:11] you're done for with the book that's [5:13] kind of when the learning begins because [5:15] maybe this will just spark a bit of [5:18] curiosity for you to then go for a walk [5:20] and think about what you want out of [5:22] life and whatnot so I think most books [5:24] when you're done with the last page the [5:25] learning is done this I hope is just [5:28] sparked something in you that will get [5:29] you to think more clearly about what you [5:31] want with money and what money can and [5:33] cannot do for you part of that journey [5:34] of understanding what you want helps you [5:37] to define the word on the front of this [5:39] book wealth what is your definition of [5:42] wealth well I I I made up these [5:44] definitions in the book so these are [5:46] just my things that I made up but I [5:47] defined rich as you have enough money to [5:51] buy what you want to pay for your [5:52] mortgage to make your car payment to go [5:54] out to dinner with your friends you have [5:55] money in the bank wealth I think is very [5:58] different wealth is money that you did [6:00] not spend and maybe you will not spend [6:03] so wealth is hidden it's the money that [6:05] you didn't spend on a car it's the money [6:07] that you didn't spend on a big house you [6:09] didn't spend on jewelry and that's [6:11] really important because wealth that's [6:13] saved up the unspent money is what gives [6:16] you Independence and autonomy and just [6:18] the ability to wake up every morning and [6:19] do whatever you want with your with your [6:21] life and so I think separating that is [6:24] really important because when most [6:26] people say I want to be a millionaire [6:28] what they actually mean is I want to [6:30] spend a million dollars that's what they [6:32] mean and when I think about being a [6:35] millionaire I think it's you have a [6:36] million dollars that you're not going to [6:37] spend and that because you're not going [6:39] to spend it you have this giant cushion [6:41] that will give you Independence and [6:43] autonomy and so you can wake up tomorrow [6:45] and say I can do whatever the hell I [6:46] want today I can work for who I want I [6:48] can work for as long as I want I can [6:50] retire when I want the World is Yours [6:52] like every bit of savings that you have [6:55] is a piece of your future that you own [6:58] it's a you're just buying your time in [7:00] the future so that it's yours and you [7:01] can do whatever you want with it and [7:03] that to me has always been the goal [7:05] there's a quote from Charlie Munger [7:07] where he says I never wanted to become [7:08] rich I just wanted to become independent [7:11] and that when the first time I read it [7:12] it was like that's me too that's what I [7:14] want I don't want a Lamborghini I don't [7:16] want a mansion and a yacht I want to [7:18] wake up every morning and just say [7:20] whatever I want to do today it's mine [7:22] nobody's going to tell me where to work [7:23] when to work what to do it's all me and [7:26] to me for not just work but for your [7:29] family life for your health for your [7:31] mental sanity there's nothing more [7:33] important than that it sounds like [7:35] you're talking about your [7:36] father my dad it was he has such an [7:39] interesting background my my my mother [7:40] too their background is so crazy and I [7:43] didn't realize how crazy it was until I [7:44] was an adult the early part of my [7:46] childhood when my parents were in school [7:49] we were very poor my parents were [7:50] students living off of student loans and [7:52] grants we had no money and then my dad [7:54] became a doctor when I was 12 or 13 and [7:57] things changed it wasn't we were not [7:58] rich but like things got very [8:00] comfortable and what was really [8:01] important is that the frugality that my [8:04] parents had to have when they were poor [8:06] stuck with them even after they started [8:08] making a little bit of money they didn't [8:09] buy a Lamborghini no no we grew up in a [8:11] very like modest house it was a nice [8:13] house and we took some like decent [8:14] family vacations but my we always live [8:16] well below our means way below our means [8:18] did that confuse you because you must [8:20] have known that your dad had the money [8:21] yes particularly when I was probably [8:23] like 16 17 and I could learn like how [8:26] much does a doctor make you can go look [8:27] it up and figure it out and and then it [8:29] was like I definitely looked down on my [8:31] parents at that age because I was like I [8:34] know you can afford a better car I know [8:36] you can buy me better Christmas presents [8:38] I know we can afford a bigger house and [8:40] you're and you're not doing it because [8:42] you're mean I think that was I think [8:44] that was my view and then it really [8:46] clicked about 10 years ago this is not [8:48] that long ago so my dad is an ER doctor [8:51] which is one of the most stressful jobs [8:52] that you can imagine it's literally [8:54] people dying in your arms every day and [8:57] he did this for 20 years and after after [8:59] 20 years of doing this night shifts [9:01] children dying in your arms literally [9:04] every every week he said he he had had [9:07] enough it was it was a lot he put in his [9:08] dues he did it for 20 years and he said [9:10] I'm done I'm I'm going to retire and the [9:12] reason he could do that is because he [9:14] had saved up so much money he was living [9:16] well below his means they had a very [9:17] high savings rate the moment he woke up [9:19] and said I want to be done he was done [9:21] and that was it and if you contrast that [9:23] with so many other people including some [9:25] of his colleagues who were also burnt [9:27] out at age 60 who were also so burnt out [9:30] by having people die in their arms for [9:31] 20 years they wanted to retire and they [9:33] couldn't because they had the bigger [9:35] house because they had the nicer car [9:37] that I thought that we should have had [9:39] when we were growing up and when they [9:42] quit and moved on to their next phase of [9:45] Life they got so much happier and so it [9:48] was like so that this was 10 years ago I [9:50] was in you know in my late 20s at this [9:52] point I was like now I get it he was [9:54] Frugal he saved a lot and that made him [9:56] independent and the Independence made [9:58] him Happ than any car would have done [10:01] made them happier than any big house [10:02] would have done so it's like I think [10:04] that is one of the keys to happiness [10:06] happiness is like the most complicated [10:08] topic you can imagine but one of the big [10:10] puzzle pieces is independence and [10:12] there's been a lot of work on this [10:14] studies on this of like one of the [10:16] things that makes people really happy in [10:18] life is having control over what they're [10:20] doing and it's more so the flip of side [10:22] of that it's like what makes people very [10:24] unhappy in life not having control over [10:27] what happens in their future not having [10:29] control over their schedule where [10:31] they're going to work whether they're [10:32] going to get laid off having that [10:34] uncertainty is a massive anchor and [10:36] waight on your life your health [10:39] absolutely I mean that was a big thing [10:40] for my dad too he was working night [10:42] shifts for for 20 years with this it [10:45] it's very bad for your health it's not [10:46] great at all so the ability the [10:48] financial ability to just wake up one [10:50] day and say I'm done done with that is [10:53] huge I I was reading studies about this [10:55] idea of autonomy because I was trying to [10:56] figure out what you have to have [10:57] professionally to love your work and I [10:59] came up with these five different points [11:01] one of them was autonomy and control and [11:04] I I came up with that because I read [11:06] studies where people who work jobs where [11:08] they had a low autonomy and control had [11:10] physiological consequences they were [11:12] more likely to get disease they [11:14] experienced stress significantly more [11:15] more likely to have cardiovascular [11:17] problems and heart disease which is the [11:18] single biggest killer of of people [11:20] generally I thought [ __ ] hell just [11:21] not having control in your life yeah [11:23] makes your body shut down yes you know [11:26] this is something that I think everybody [11:27] has experienced if they have something [11:28] really stress going on at life they get [11:30] into bed they're tired you can feel your [11:32] heart pounding like the physiological [11:35] response of stress is huge it's massive [11:39] and if you have that going on every day [11:41] for 5 years 10 years 20 years 30 years [11:43] forget about it forget about it this's [11:45] this great quote from John D Rockefeller [11:47] he's the richest man in the world and he [11:49] lived till I think he was 99 something [11:50] like that he was 97 and his doctor [11:53] talked about why like his key to [11:55] longevity and the doctor said quote he [11:58] never lets any anything bother him he [12:01] spends plenty of time outside and he [12:03] leaves the table when he's still a [12:04] little bit hungry that was his key to [12:06] longevity it was just and and when you [12:08] read his biography you realize how true [12:09] that was no matter what was going on in [12:11] his life and the most stressful business [12:14] conditions you can imagine none of it [12:15] ever bothered him he just had ice in his [12:17] veins and he could just keep going and [12:19] so I I I do think that's that's [12:20] definitely one of like the keys to [12:22] physical health is lowering that amount [12:24] of stress and there are not many other [12:26] things in life that are going to [12:28] increase the stress that you have have [12:30] than not having control over what you're [12:32] doing in life Freedom chapter seven of [12:35] your book this is the broadest lifestyle [12:38] variable that makes people happy doing [12:40] something you love but on a schedule you [12:42] can't control starts to feel the same as [12:44] doing something you hate psychologists [12:46] call this reactants that's right you [12:49] know I I do think there are a lot of I [12:51] think the best example are CEOs who [12:53] might make $30 million a year $50 [12:55] million a year but they have no control [12:57] over their time every single second of [12:59] day is planned and demanded by somebody [13:02] else and they have to do things that [13:04] they don't want to do if they wake up [13:05] and they're tired too bad you got to go [13:06] to your meetings today they wake up and [13:08] they're exhausted too bad you have to [13:09] travel to China to close this deal they [13:11] have no control over their time and [13:13] compare that to someone who makes much [13:15] less but they wake up they can wake up [13:17] and do whatever they want whatever they [13:18] want to do you want to hang out with [13:19] your friends you want to sleep in you [13:20] want to take a nap at 2 o'clock whatever [13:21] you want to do the person who I think [13:23] really sticks out in that in that vein [13:25] is Warren Buffett who is the the CEO who [13:28] makes a zillion a year he's worth [13:30] hundred billion do but if you dig into [13:32] how he structured his day total control [13:34] 100% autonomy can do whatever the hell [13:36] he wants all day long what he wants to [13:38] do is get up and go to work but he he [13:41] has delegated things so effectively that [13:44] he can do whatever he wants and that's [13:45] not only the key to his I think business [13:47] success but his health lifestyle success [13:51] why he's 93 and still going as strong as [13:54] ever I I was thinking about my calendar [13:56] when you were talking about the CEO that [13:57] makes $30 million a year but is just [13:59] dragged around by his schedule sounds a [14:00] lot like me to be honest I feel like the [14:02] more successful I've got in my [14:04] professional career the more my calendar [14:07] the minute I wake up in the morning I'm [14:09] just like a puppet master to these [14:10] little boxes on my Google Calendar yeah [14:13] they drag me around the world and [14:15] there's very little I actually said to [14:17] my assistant about a month ago I was [14:18] like um Sophie please can you do me a [14:20] favor could you just put lunch in for 30 [14:22] minutes because I'm not eating could you [14:24] just put like could you just put that in [14:25] midday every day at the same time so you [14:27] can breathe so I can have a little bit [14:28] of a moment I do nothing and then also [14:30] the other thing I've put in now I have a [14:31] personal trainer 7 days a week and I've [14:33] just put that in my calendar it was [14:35] before then a residual beneficiary as [14:37] was everything for me well not for me [14:39] because my work is for me but um it it [14:42] got the time that was left over when all [14:44] my priorities were done and I do reflect [14:46] on that and go like how like a when does [14:48] that stop because it's clearly not going [14:50] to stop when I make money because I have [14:51] the money and B how much control do I [14:56] actually have and you know what I do [14:58] sometimes I think I've noticed about [14:59] myself I think sometimes I councel [15:01] things just to prove to myself that I [15:02] still have control that's great see [15:04] that's a good thing there's a quote from [15:05] n talb where he says like you are [15:07] wealthy when the money that you deny [15:09] tastes better than the money you accept [15:11] so you get someone comes to you with a [15:13] business deal and you say no thanks I [15:14] don't want it when that tastes better to [15:17] you than accepting the deal it feels [15:19] better to you that's like one definition [15:21] of of Rich there's another great quote [15:23] from TYB where he says the world is [15:25] split evenly between people who don't [15:27] know how to start making money and [15:28] people who don't know when to stop [15:30] making money and I think there are a lot [15:32] of people that are watching this that [15:35] are in kind of our field who are easily [15:37] in the ladder they have all the money [15:39] that they could ever want to spend or [15:40] maybe not not that much but they have [15:42] more money than they ever thought they [15:44] would have but for every gold that they [15:47] hit oh when whenever my net worth is X [15:50] all my problems are going to go away [15:51] everything's going to feel great and [15:52] then they hit X and they just keep [15:53] moving the goalpost down and down so I [15:55] read in the book that like the hardest [15:56] Financial skill is getting the goalpost [15:58] to stop moving it's the hardest thing in [16:00] the world it's hard for everybody [16:02] because virtually everybody thinks if my [16:04] net worth or my income was this level [16:07] I'll be fine I'll feel great no more [16:08] problems I'll wake up every morning with [16:10] a smile on my face and then if you're [16:12] lucky enough or you work hard enough to [16:13] get there you realize it's not the case [16:14] at all you're just going to keep pushing [16:16] it keep pushing it keep pushing it [16:17] forever have they done studies to test [16:20] that in terms of analyzing whether [16:22] people's goal posts move off into the [16:23] future even when they're like [16:24] billionaires and whatever I mean here's [16:26] here's the broadest way that I would [16:28] frame this up that as has been studied [16:29] if you look at America today the average [16:32] household adjusted for inflation is [16:34] making twice as much money than they [16:36] were in the 1950s to adjusted for [16:38] inflation the average household double [16:39] the income that they were back then and [16:41] we less happy the statistics that try to [16:44] measure happiness over time it's not an [16:46] easy thing to do but we're less happy [16:48] today than we were back then and this is [16:50] why like look can money buy happiness [16:52] yes and to some extent does it yes like [16:54] people who are in abject poverty are not [16:56] as happy as people who are covering the [16:58] basics and they have food and shelter [16:59] etc etc but over time when you when the [17:03] society is getting richer and you're [17:05] comparing yourself to other people and [17:07] maybe the average American's income [17:09] doubled but so did their neighbors so [17:10] did their co-workers so did their [17:12] siblings so you just automatically [17:13] adjust to that I talked about [17:15] Rockefeller before Johnny Rockefeller [17:17] who died in I think the 1930s he was [17:19] worth adjusted for inflation almost half [17:21] a trillion dollars during his day [17:23] adjusted for inflation but he never had [17:26] during his life penicillin Advil [17:30] sunscreen polio vaccine keep keep going [17:33] down the list of things that virtually [17:34] everyone can take advantage of today [17:36] that he never had but you can't say that [17:39] the average American is living better [17:41] than Rockefeller today because we have [17:43] all of these technologies that he never [17:45] did because we just look at what other [17:47] people have and assume that that is the [17:49] Baseline so you can imagine a world in [17:51] which my kids my grandkids are earning [17:55] twice as much as me adjusted for [17:56] inflation and they're no happier for it [17:58] because the new technologies whatever it [18:00] would be that would seem like magic to [18:03] you and I will just become their [18:05] Baseline and that's always been the case [18:07] if there was if Thomas Jefferson or [18:10] somebody came to the year 2023 he would [18:12] faint at the new technologies and the [18:15] medical discoveries that we have and [18:17] these are technologies that you and I [18:18] don't spend one second being grateful [18:21] for because we've just accepted them as [18:22] a new Baseline it reminds me of [18:24] something in your new book which is out [18:26] in November which is [18:29] you know I've gassed up a lot of books [18:31] on this podcast before but this is one [18:32] of my favorite of all time it's just so [18:35] easy to read and so engaging because you [18:38] you're one of those authors in this book [18:40] that realizes the world that the reader [18:42] living in and they are busy and they [18:44] want the point and they want you to you [18:46] know give them not one word more than [18:48] you need to it is so brilliant it's so [18:51] brilliant um in this book you talk about [18:53] exactly that you say the first rule of [18:55] happiness is low expectations Y and [18:58] that's exactly what you're talking about [18:59] is comparison is the thief of Joy [19:01] because it just raises our own [19:02] expectations right when with that out [19:04] the window goes our happiness yeah and [19:07] it's it it it seems counterintuitive to [19:08] people that if you want to be H for most [19:10] people it's if you want to be happier [19:11] you need to be ambitious you need more [19:13] you need to make more money work harder [19:15] have a more successful startup whatever [19:16] it would be and there's that's true but [19:18] that's half the equation the other half [19:19] the equation is keep your expectations [19:21] low so the gap between those two it's a [19:24] gap between those two that actually [19:26] accru to happiness over time how did you [19:28] learn that I think it's just I think [19:30] there have been a couple little stories [19:31] that really stuck out to me one that I [19:33] love that just knocked me on my ass the [19:35] first time I read it was Stephen Hawking [19:38] the late physicist who was without [19:40] exaggeration one of the smartest people [19:42] to ever walk this planet he was just an [19:43] absolute genius and a quirky of course [19:46] is that he had a motor neuron disease [19:47] and he was paralyzed from head to toe he [19:49] had no control over his body he spoke [19:51] through a computer not a single muscle [19:53] in his body could he actually control by [19:54] himself so he was you know [19:57] physiologically it's one of the worst [19:58] Liv that you can imagine and he did an [20:00] interview with the New York Times a [20:01] couple years before he died and during [20:03] the interview he's talking about how [20:04] happy he was and how amazing his life [20:07] was and the New York Times said they [20:09] asked him they said what is your secret [20:10] to happiness like if there's anyone who [20:13] has the right to complain about life [20:15] it's it's that guy and he's talking [20:16] about how happy he was and he said my [20:19] expectations were reduced to zero when I [20:21] was 21 which is when he got his disease [20:24] and he said everything else since then [20:26] has been a bonus so this is like the who [20:29] whose life is like has ended up in a way [20:32] that most people watching that would say [20:33] like that's among the worst scenarios [20:35] you can imagine and he's probably [20:37] happier than you and I because his [20:39] expectations were so low that just [20:41] waking up in the morning and seeing the [20:43] sunrise and getting to go to work and [20:45] talk to people was this magical gift I [20:48] mean you can imagine not to get too [20:49] morbid about this but imagine you're on [20:50] your deathbed and the doctor is very [20:53] confident that you're going to die [20:54] tomorrow and let's say that you make it [20:56] one more day what is that Sunrise going [20:59] to feel like what's that you know [21:01] holding your your wife's hand for one [21:03] more day going to feel like it' be [21:06] amazing just because your expectations [21:07] were on the floor and so it it's always [21:10] like that and you go through life seeing [21:11] so many people who have everything all [21:13] the money the great family all the [21:16] health the beauty everything you can [21:17] imagine and they're not happy for it and [21:19] it's because with everything that they [21:20] have their expectations rise not only to [21:23] that level they might rise above it so [21:25] if you are some if your expectations [21:27] rise faster than your inome [21:29] you're never going to be happy with your [21:30] money no matter how much money you make [21:32] you can make a billion dollars a year [21:34] but if you needed and wanted 1.1 billion [21:36] you're broke you feel broke and the [21:39] reverse of that is true too there are [21:40] people who make $50,000 a year but if [21:42] they only need 40 to be happy they're [21:44] sto they feel great and so that's I [21:47] think that's one of the reasons it's so [21:48] important is because managing your own [21:51] expectations is more in your control [21:53] than managing your circumstances in [21:55] terms of raising your income raising [21:57] your investing return [21:59] it's not that you can't control raising [22:01] your income you can be ambitious and [22:02] smart and entrepreneurial of but it's [22:04] more in your control to just inside your [22:06] head to say I'm going to try to want [22:09] less that that's just a mental exercise [22:11] that's it's not to say it's easy it's [22:13] not easy at all but you have total [22:15] control over doing it so how in a [22:17] practical sense can one go about keeping [22:20] their expectations below their [22:23] circumstances I guess here's here's one [22:25] that really made an impact on me and [22:27] it's great that we're in La cuz that's [22:29] where this story took place I was a [22:31] valet here in La all throughout college [22:33] at a fstar hotel here in town so a I I [22:37] was young I was you know aged 19 to 24 [22:39] or something like that and all day it [22:41] was people driving in in Ferraris and [22:43] Lamborghinis and rolls-royces and one [22:45] day it hit me just I I I remember the [22:48] moment because it was like out of the [22:49] blue it hit me whenever someone would [22:51] drive in in a rollsroyce or something [22:53] never once would I look at the driver [22:55] and say that guy is cool like wow look [22:58] at him he's so cool what I did is I [23:00] imagined myself as the driver and then I [23:03] thought if I was a driver people would [23:04] think I'm cool and I was like wait don't [23:06] you see like the disconnect here nobody [23:09] cares about the driver but they want to [23:11] be the driver because they think people [23:12] will then care about them and once you [23:14] realize that like the takeaway is nobody [23:18] is thinking about you as much as you are [23:20] nobody cares about your stuff as much as [23:22] you do nobody cares about your car or [23:24] your house or your clothes or your [23:26] jewelry as much as you do because to the [23:28] extent that they're even looking at them [23:30] they're looking at your car looking at [23:31] your house really what they're doing is [23:33] imagining themselves with that nice car [23:36] they're not giving you the credit [23:37] they're imagining themselves having it [23:39] so once I realize like that was the game [23:41] that was being played in society once [23:43] you once you recognize that's the game [23:45] your willingness your desire to show off [23:48] plunges and of course I I like nice [23:51] stuff I like nice cars I want some nice [23:52] clothes I live in a decent house but [23:55] once you realize that it plunges and I [23:57] think the most valuable Financial skill [23:59] that anybody can have is not needing to [24:01] impress other people if you don't need [24:04] to impress other people that is an asset [24:07] on your balance sheet that is worth a [24:09] billion dollars because so much of [24:11] society as a whole and individual is [24:14] just geared towards how can I get other [24:16] people's attention how can I show off to [24:18] other people how can how can they like [24:19] me more I both agree and understand but [24:22] agreeing and understanding is different [24:24] from being able to do I think at the [24:26] society level it will never be it'll [24:27] always be like that same as ever it's [24:29] never it's never going to move away from [24:31] that if you can manage it around the [24:33] edges at the individual level it's [24:35] massive for your life one thing that's [24:36] important here is that if you are a [24:39] young person and you're kind of looking [24:41] for a spouse a mate a boyfriend a [24:43] girlfriend a wife a husband whatever it [24:45] would be then your ability to look [24:47] really nice and to signal and to kind of [24:49] put up your peacock feathers is [24:51] important and I get it and I did it back [24:53] in the day once you are more settled [24:55] down in your career in your [24:56] relationships if at that point you are [24:58] still hanging on to the desire to [25:00] impress other people that's when it's [25:01] broken that's when it's just pure net [25:03] loss in your life because you're trying [25:05] to show off to for people who you don't [25:07] even need or want to love you there's a [25:10] great quote from Warren Buffett where he [25:11] says the definition of success is when [25:14] the people who you want to love you do [25:16] love you and so for me it's like five [25:19] people it's like my parents my wife and [25:21] my kids and like that's it that's it [25:23] those are the people who I want to love [25:24] me and if they love me I I probably have [25:27] 90% of the happiness that I'm capable of [25:30] and if they don't love me and then I'm [25:32] never going to have more than like 10% [25:34] of the happiness that I'm capable of in [25:35] that chapter about happiness you talk [25:37] about your friend Brent as well in his [25:38] theory on marriage yeah my friend Brent [25:40] B sure has this great theory on marriage [25:42] where he says marriage only works if [25:45] both Partners want to serve the other [25:48] partner and expect nothing in return so [25:50] you wake up every morning and you say I [25:51] want to serve my spouse but I expect [25:54] nothing in return from them and if you [25:56] both do that simultaneously you're both [25:58] pleasantly surprised because what [26:00] happens is I didn't expect you to do [26:01] anything for me but you did and vice [26:04] versa and both of you just wake up every [26:05] morning you're like but you did that for [26:07] me you you helped me out here you you're [26:09] empathetic to me there and it feels [26:10] great you exceeded my expectations [26:12] exceed my expectations and I think what [26:14] breaks down any marriage or career or [26:16] whatever it would be is when you become [26:19] needy like nothing breaks love more than [26:22] being needy and really what needy is is [26:25] just your expectations are so high that [26:26] you wake up and you say I expect to do [26:28] this for me I expect you to help me I [26:31] expect you to serve me that's just like [26:33] massively high expectations that you [26:35] have in that relationship it's it's also [26:37] like expecting an external factor in [26:39] that case your partner to validate you [26:42] in some way or to and that kind of goes [26:44] back to your point about money where in [26:46] order to stop showing off and focusing [26:48] on those five people that we want to [26:50] love [26:51] ourselves we need to understand and [26:54] ideally solve our often toxic [26:57] relationship with like our need for [26:58] validation and that I guess brings me to [27:01] the first chapter in your book where you [27:02] talk about the stories of money that we [27:04] have and where they've come from and [27:07] something that's always baffled me is [27:08] when you go into low-income areas [27:10] there's more gambling shops yeah and I [27:12] can attest to it when I was 18 19 years [27:15] old and I'm shoplifting pizzas to feed [27:17] myself and I'm doing all sorts of stuff [27:20] when I got my student loan in I was in [27:21] university for one day and they gave me [27:23] like the first payment of my student [27:25] loan I don't think I've ever said this [27:27] before I put the entirety of the payment [27:30] on a bet wow and I lost it in the six in [27:33] the an injury time of that football [27:35] match I don't bet and did you need that [27:37] money for tuition like it it was then it [27:39] was then gone I needed it to eat yeah I [27:41] wasn't speaking I had no money I don't [27:43] come I didn't come from money and my [27:44] parents I'd gone to University with 50 [27:46] Quid and I got this like, sent to me [27:48] from student loan whatever I was so [27:50] reckless with money when I didn't have [27:52] money the minute I got money it's like [27:54] everything just chilled the [ __ ] out and [27:55] I I became really longterm I made [27:59] responsible decisions I stopped buying [28:01] flashy things I like don't even own a TV [28:03] now I'm very Sim I feel like the more [28:05] money I have the less my material [28:07] desires are for sure for sure when I say [28:09] that out loud I'm like oh absolutely why [28:11] is that that when we have less we are [28:13] Reckless with our money well I think [28:14] there's two sides to this one of my [28:16] theories is [28:17] that what everyone wants in the world is [28:20] respect and admiration from other people [28:22] and there's kind of two ways to get that [28:24] you can get your respect and admiration [28:25] through your wisdom through your love [28:28] through your humor or if you don't have [28:30] that to offer from the to offer to the [28:32] world you're going to get it through [28:33] your material possessions so if you can [28:36] gain respect and admiration through your [28:37] business success your wisdom your love [28:40] your friendship great then you're going [28:42] to get it and you're going to fulfill [28:43] that bucket if you can't get it from [28:45] those things then you're like well might [28:46] as well show off my car it's all I got [28:47] to do that's all I have I think that's [28:49] one side of it so as you become more [28:51] successful your desire to show off [28:54] diminishes because you're gaining [28:55] respect and admiration through other [28:57] things that are not matural [28:58] the other side of this that's so [29:00] important is that you know I saw this [29:02] statistic years ago that the poorest 10% [29:05] of Americans buy like 80% of the lottery [29:08] tickets in America and these are people [29:10] who can like barely feed themselves [29:13] lowest 10% they're literally struggling [29:15] to put a roof over the head and feed [29:17] themselves are going out hand over fist [29:19] buying scratcher tickets and the the [29:21] knee-jerk reaction when you hear that is [29:24] morons what are you doing you idiot and [29:26] maybe that is the right reaction but I [29:28] started thinking about it and it was [29:29] like okay maybe if you try to put [29:31] yourself in those people's shoes maybe [29:33] they would say something like this if [29:36] you are stuck in a low-income job and [29:38] you feel like there's no way out you [29:39] feel like you don't have the opportunity [29:41] to work your way up the ladder become an [29:43] entrepreneur you feel like you're stuck [29:45] in this position buying a lottery ticket [29:47] might be the only thing in life that [29:49] gives you a little bit of hope it might [29:51] it's might be what feels like literally [29:52] your only ticket to get out and that [29:55] might be not something that you and I [29:57] feel like because because we have we we [29:59] we at least feel like we might have [30:00] other opportunities I it's you're so [30:02] right because when I gambled what I then [30:05] did the same day before the result of my [30:08] bet or my lottery ticket came in and I [30:10] said this to my team the other day is I [30:12] would go on right move and like auto [30:14] trader and look at stuff that I would [30:16] buy if I won yeah yeah I think there's a [30:19] sense too that if you are stuck in a [30:21] lower spot in life if you have a feeling [30:24] that the world is unfair and very often [30:26] it is so some maybe that that might be [30:28] the right mindset but if you feel the [30:29] world is unfair then it's very natural [30:32] to think I might as well cheat too if [30:34] the world's unfair why not might as well [30:35] cheat and I think that at least at some [30:38] level has some explanation for the [30:40] relationship between poverty and crime [30:42] that word hope is is so is so true I [30:44] think it's true too just a glimpse of [30:46] Hope because it gives you even if it's a [30:48] 0.00001% chance if it's the only thing [30:50] in your day that made you smile a little [30:52] bit made you feel like you had a little [30:53] bit of hope then I get why they do it [30:55] the other reason the other thing I think [30:57] a lot about here is that if you are in a [30:59] low-income job and you're working [31:01] graveyard shifts and you're exhausted [31:03] and you're taking three buses to get [31:04] your kids to school if the only thing [31:07] that day that gives you a little bit of [31:08] pleasure is a cigarette and some alcohol [31:11] I get it I totally get it and that's [31:13] also the relationship between health and [31:15] poverty is a lot of that too so it's [31:16] very easy for people who are of higher [31:19] means to look down at those people and [31:21] point out all the bad decisions that [31:23] they're that they're doing in life but I [31:25] think you underestimate how much that [31:27] desire to just have a little bit of Hope [31:29] a little bit of pleasure and if those [31:30] feel like your only avenues for Hope and [31:32] pleasure maybe that's the explanation [31:33] for at least part of it quick one this [31:36] is really really fascinating to me on [31:37] the back end of our YouTube channel it [31:39] says that [31:40] 69.9% of you that watch this channel [31:43] frequently over the lifetime of this [31:44] channel haven't yet hit the Subscribe [31:46] button I just wanted to ask you a favor [31:48] it helps this channel so much if you [31:50] choose to just subscribe helps us scale [31:52] the guest helps us scale the production [31:54] and it makes the show bigger so if I [31:55] could ask you for one favor if you've [31:57] watched the show before and you've [31:58] enjoyed it and you like this episode [32:00] that you're currently watching could you [32:01] please hit the Subscribe button thank [32:03] you so much and I will repay that [32:05] gesture by making sure that everything [32:07] we do here gets better and better and [32:08] better and better that is a promise I'm [32:10] willing to make you do we have a deal [32:11] let's speak then to 18-year-old Steve [32:14] that was in that little room with the [32:15] stack of these what they call County [32:17] Court judgments and bays and stuff stack [32:19] of letters on his desk what advice based [32:22] on all you know about money and finance [32:24] can you give to somebody who is Maybe [32:28] making a, $1,000 $2,000 a month covers [32:32] their rent just about doesn't have a lot [32:33] of money left over what is the best way [32:36] to go from that position to a position [32:38] of wealth in your [32:39] view I think one of the best ways to [32:42] think about it at the lower levels and I [32:44] explained a little bit this earlier but [32:45] to dig into it is a lot of what's [32:47] probably giving you stress in life is [32:49] that you don't have control over what [32:50] you're doing and if you view every [32:52] dollar of savings that you have as a bit [32:53] of your future that you own and control [32:56] then I think that mind that mindset can [32:58] shift pretty dramatically and it's like [33:01] that's that's the ticket out the ticket [33:02] out is not a nicer car it's not a bigger [33:05] house it's not better closeth the ticket [33:06] out is Independence that's what's going [33:08] to give you the better career that's [33:09] what's going to make you happier it's [33:10] what's going to make you healthier and [33:11] the only thing that's going to give you [33:12] Independence is having enough money [33:14] saved up so that you can choose where [33:16] you want to live maybe even what job you [33:19] want you can choose at at at some point [33:22] down the road when you retire if you get [33:24] sick it's not just going to break you [33:25] immediately having that Independence is [33:27] going to take more weight off your [33:28] shoulders than anything else you can do [33:30] in life save money that's it that's the [33:33] the title of that chapter in the book is [33:34] save money because you can't put it any [33:36] clearer or Starker like that's that's it [33:38] he says there are three types of people [33:40] those who [33:41] save those who don't think they can save [33:44] and those who don't think they need to [33:46] save yep three types of people which one [33:49] are you those who save those who don't [33:51] think they can save and those who don't [33:53] think they need to save I tell you what [33:55] I've been all three in my life that's [33:57] interesting I've always been a saver no [33:59] I haven't and see that I think that's [34:01] actually very rare that you change who [34:03] you are really on the nature nurture [34:05] Spectrum I actually think and this is [34:07] kind of disappointing to talk about it's [34:09] not fun to talk about but on the nature [34:10] of nurture Spectrum I think a lot of [34:11] money is nature Warren Buffett talks [34:14] about the people who have the money mind [34:16] which means like either they get it or [34:17] they don't and if they get it they get [34:19] it instantly and if they don't they'll [34:20] get it never at all I I I actually don't [34:23] believe in it it's that black and white [34:24] Charlie merer explains it like that he [34:26] says when explaining financial matters [34:29] to young people they either get it [34:30] instantly or never at all and he's [34:33] putting that too starkly I think I don't [34:35] think it's that black and white but on [34:37] the nature nurture spectrum is it 8020 [34:39] is it 7030 I think it's probably [34:41] something in that range so let me give [34:44] you a count a counterargument to that [34:46] then so as I said I've been someone that [34:49] didn't think he could save because I [34:50] didn't have money and I just thought oh [34:52] you know but I could have saved in it [34:53] looking back now I know I could have [34:54] saved I could have saved a small amount [34:56] but I didn't see the value in saving [34:57] small numbers I didn't understand the [34:59] laws of compounding returns which we'll [35:00] definitely talk about I have also been [35:03] the person that [35:04] saves and I've also been the person who [35:09] thought they didn't need to save I've [35:10] been all three my Counterpoint to this [35:12] goes back to a story that I read from [35:14] your early years where two of your [35:17] friends died on a ski trip yeah and it [35:19] also links to something youve said in [35:21] your new book same as ever where you [35:23] speak about [35:24] how sometimes in life like hitting rock [35:28] bottom is the greatest incentive to [35:31] change our lives yeah so I put those two [35:33] things together and go that moment when [35:35] you were two of your friends died on a [35:36] ski trip that you were on when you were [35:38] younger it had an impact on your risk [35:40] appetite and your attitude towards and [35:42] therefore your attitude towards money [35:44] yep what what happened what happened so [35:46] I grew up skiing in in Le Tahoe [35:47] California and I was a competitive ski [35:49] racer right uh so all throughout my [35:51] childhood and teenage years I skied six [35:53] days a week 10 months a year all over [35:55] the world and it was great there about [35:57] 12 of us on the squad Valley ski team we [35:58] had grown up together and we had spent [36:00] our entire lives together and when I was [36:02] 17 this is in 2001 I was skiing with my [36:05] two two of my best friends brenon Allen [36:07] and and and Brian Richmond and we would [36:09] ski out of bounds which is illegal [36:12] you're not supposed to do it we would [36:13] duck under the rope that says do not [36:15] cross and we'd ski out of bounds because [36:16] that's where a lot of the good skiing is [36:18] and when we would do this it would spit [36:20] us out on this back country road where [36:22] we'd have to hitchhike back there's no [36:24] chairlift when you ski out of bounds you [36:25] have to hitchhike your way back so so we [36:27] did it one morning in February 2001 the [36:29] three of us did it and when we did it we [36:31] triggered a very small Avalanche and I I [36:34] remembered it so clearly like I can [36:36] still feel it 21 year 22 years later I [36:40] can still feel what is like it's the [36:41] weirdest sensation of that I've had in [36:44] my life because when you get hit by an [36:46] avalanche rather than pushing on the [36:47] snow to gain traction with your skis the [36:50] ground is pushing you so all of a sudden [36:53] you're skiing along and you got control [36:54] and all a sudden boom you have no [36:55] control everyore the the ground is [36:57] pushing you around probably similar to [36:59] what it feels like if you're standing on [37:00] the ground during an earthquake like the [37:01] ground's pushing you but it was a pretty [37:03] small Avalanche maybe came up to our [37:05] knees ended pretty quickly and we kind [37:07] of like literally high-fived about it at [37:09] the bottom and went about our day we get [37:11] back around to the the base Lodge we hit [37:14] shik back and Bren and Brian said they [37:16] wanted to do it again they wanted to ski [37:17] again and I said hey for whatever reason [37:20] I I I just didn't want to do it so I [37:22] said hey rather than hit cheing back why [37:23] don't you guys go do it again and I'll [37:25] drive my truck around and pick you up so [37:28] we said great we made our plans went our [37:29] separate ways they went skiing I went [37:31] back around to take my boots off and [37:33] jump in my truck and go pick them up 20 [37:35] 30 minutes later I go to pick them up at [37:36] the pickup spot and they weren't there [37:39] and I knew it only took us a minute to [37:41] ski down the hill so 20 minutes later I [37:43] knew like they they they weren't coming [37:44] I I was not worried I figured that they [37:46] had already hit hike home but so after [37:49] waiting for another 20 or 30 minutes I [37:50] just left and I went back to the lodge I [37:52] expected them to be there and they [37:54] weren't and I still didn't really worry [37:56] like we didn't have cell phones back [37:57] then and people were just comfortable [37:58] being out of touch if you didn't know [38:00] where your your buddy was like wasn't [38:01] that that wasn't that big a deal so we [38:04] went about the day I I started worrying [38:06] a little bit I remember I stopped at [38:07] Brendan's house and expected him to be [38:09] there and he wasn't there either and I [38:11] remember calling and leaving a message [38:12] on his voicemail and I remember ending [38:14] the voicemail by saying I hope you're [38:15] okay man those are my last words I [38:17] remember that very clearly the day went [38:19] on and I think at about 4 or 5:00 [38:22] Brian's mom called me and she said Brian [38:25] never showed up for work today do you [38:26] know where he is [38:28] and I told her what happened I said we [38:30] skied the backside of squa where we'd [38:32] hit Chik back I was going to pick them [38:34] up but they never showed up and I [38:35] haven't seen them since and I also [38:37] remember so clearly Brian's mom saying [38:40] oh my God and hanging up the phone and [38:42] that was so like so it's then we started [38:44] getting worried we called the police the [38:45] police didn't take it very seriously [38:46] because they thought ah they're out at a [38:48] party they ran off with a girl for the [38:49] night like they weren't worried but we [38:51] finally got search and rescue involved [38:53] and Rescuers of probe poles frowned [38:56] Brenan and Brian buried under 6 ft of [38:58] snow and they were they had been killed [39:00] from a massive Avalanche and so look I [39:03] think virtually everyone listening to [39:04] this I'm sure you to have lost somebody [39:06] close to you somebody that you love so I [39:08] know the experience was not unique in [39:10] that way but it was the first time that [39:12] I had experienced loss and it was the [39:15] first bad thing that had ever happened [39:16] to me in my life so it had a big impact [39:18] on me and there were a lot of takeaways [39:21] I think at the time I didn't have the [39:23] cognitive tools to piece together what [39:25] happened or to learn about what happened [39:28] like have any sort of takeaways but as I [39:30] got older and thought about it and [39:32] looking back I put together all these [39:35] like realizations of what that did to me [39:37] how it changed me and what were some of [39:39] the lessons from it too one that I talk [39:42] about in the book that I think about all [39:43] the time is my decision to not go with [39:47] them on a second run was this completely [39:50] brainless decision I put no thought into [39:52] that decision it was not a cost benefit [39:54] analysis I didn't think through it but [39:56] it's the most important decision I've [39:57] ever made in my life 100% chance if I [40:00] was with them I would have died and I [40:02] had skied literally thousands of runs [40:04] with Brendan and Brian how many times [40:06] did I deny a second run with them or say [40:09] you guys keep going I'm going to go in [40:11] almost never the one time I did it saved [40:13] my entire life and so that you really [40:16] realize that the world hangs by a thread [40:18] everybody thinks like oh you're going to [40:20] put a lot of thought into your big [40:21] decisions to make sure that you're [40:22] successful in life where you go to [40:23] college what your career is going to be [40:25] who you marry that's all great but the [40:27] world hangs by a thread and there are [40:29] tiny little no nothing decisions maybe [40:31] that you made today of maybe it was when [40:34] to cross the street maybe it was when to [40:36] leave to get in your car that can [40:38] utterly change the course of your life [40:41] and so when once you accept that of how [40:44] much the world hangs by a thread I think [40:45] you become much more humble with your [40:47] willingness to make forecasts about the [40:49] future what the economy is going to do [40:51] who's going to win the election what's [40:52] going to happen in my life my career my [40:54] family's life we have no clue we have no [40:57] idea because all we can think about are [40:59] the big decisions we cannot piece [41:02] together the chaos theory of I got in my [41:05] car at the at the wrong time I met the [41:08] wrong person or I met the right person [41:09] or you know I I decided not to take a [41:11] second run we cannot forecast the impact [41:13] of those things and so that had a big [41:16] impact on me too of just who are we to [41:18] fool ourselves that we can predict the [41:20] next recession that we can predict where [41:22] our careers are going to be in 10 years [41:24] that we can predict how long our [41:25] marriage is going to last that we can [41:27] predict how long we're going to live we [41:28] can't nobody can because we can't [41:30] predict how crazy these tiny events can [41:33] turn into and this comes right back to [41:35] investing doesn't it [41:37] because most people that consider [41:40] themselves to be investors whether [41:41] that's just putting a couple of quid [41:42] into crypto or something else engage in [41:46] the idea that they can predict the [41:47] future yeah um and this is where it [41:50] appears that most money is lost I mean [41:52] think about the biggest risk to the US [41:54] economy over the last two generations Co [41:57] mean that's one of them the others would [41:58] be Pearl Harbor okay 911 Co and maybe uh [42:02] Lan Brothers couldn't find a buyer in [42:04] 2008 which sparked the financial crisis [42:06] of 2008 those are the biggest Risk by [42:08] far and the common denominator of every [42:10] one of those stories is that nobody saw [42:12] them coming they were not in any [42:14] newspaper before they happened they were [42:15] not in any economic Outlook nobody was [42:18] going on TV warning you that this was [42:20] coming the common denominator of those [42:22] is that they did all of their damage in [42:24] two seconds and that would be the case [42:26] going forward you can guarantee that the [42:28] biggest news story and the biggest risk [42:30] over the next year or the next 10 years [42:33] of our life whatever it is is something [42:34] that nobody's talking about today that [42:37] you and I have can't even fathom because [42:39] it's always been like that there's never [42:40] been a time when the biggest news story [42:42] was [42:43] foreseeable and it's all and it'll be [42:45] like that going forward so that's [42:46] another just like embracing how fragile [42:49] the world is there's a great quote from [42:50] a financial adviser who I really admire [42:52] Nam Carl Richards and he says risk is [42:54] what's left over when you think you've [42:56] thought of everything [42:57] H you can go out of your way to think [42:59] about all of the risks that are in your [43:00] life and like great and like how you're [43:02] going to prevent them great that's a [43:03] good thing to do when you're done with [43:05] that exercise what's left over that [43:07] you're not thinking about is what risk [43:09] actually is it's like by definition we [43:11] can never plan or even imagine what the [43:13] biggest risks in our lives are going to [43:14] be you say that in same as ever you say [43:17] I think the the chapter title is risk is [43:19] the things you can't see or something [43:21] risk is what you don't see risk is what [43:22] you don't see that was a little bit [43:24] terrifying and it's true and I think I [43:27] think sometime you can phrase it as [43:28] terrifying it's also kind of relieving [43:32] that like why are you going to put so [43:34] much effort into trying to predict what [43:36] the stock market's going to do next what [43:37] the econom is going to do next why are [43:39] you building a forecasting model to [43:41] figure out what the econom is going to [43:42] do over the next 10 years when you look [43:44] at the last 10 or 20 years how could you [43:46] ever predict 911 or Co and even look [43:50] like something like Co there's like a [43:51] 2015 Bill Gates Ted Talk where he talks [43:54] about the biggest risk to society is a [43:56] viral pandemic so it's not that nobody [43:59] saw that thing coming but the specifics [44:02] of when it's going to happen how bad [44:04] it's going to be is it just going to [44:06] shut down the economy for a week or two [44:08] years that is completely impossible but [44:10] there's also lots of other TED Talks [44:11] that say everything's going to be great [44:13] of course of course there's proba [44:14] there's a lot more so on balance the [44:16] world had no idea I think on balance the [44:19] world breaks once per decade not exactly [44:22] once per de but on average once per [44:24] decade everything that you thought about [44:25] risk and uncertainty and stability goes [44:29] to [ __ ] so how do I prepare if risk if [44:32] risk is what I don't see how do I [44:33] prepare there's another great quote from [44:35] Nasim talad that I like where he says [44:37] invest in preparedness not in prediction [44:40] so rather than going out of your way to [44:41] be like here's what I think is going to [44:43] happen in crypto here's what I think is [44:44] going to happen in the stock market just [44:45] make sure that you have a big enough [44:47] buffer in your finances cash liquidity [44:50] being scared of debt so that no matter [44:52] what happens you're you at least have a [44:55] Fighting Chance of enduring it and make [44:57] through one thing I've I've often [44:59] thought about is that you should have [45:01] enough cash in your investing portfolio [45:03] the amount of cash you should have [45:05] should feel like it's too much it should [45:07] feel it should make you winse a little [45:08] bit because if you only have enough cash [45:11] to put up with the risk that you can [45:13] Envision and the risk that you can [45:14] foresee you're going to miss a surprise [45:16] every single time every single surprise [45:18] is going to be a surprise to you but if [45:20] you feel like you have too much cash [45:22] then at least you have a Fighting Chance [45:24] of putting up with the 911 the co the [45:27] Harbor whatever it might be so when [45:29] people look at my asset allocation my [45:32] investments a lot of people look at it [45:34] and say you seem really conservative why [45:36] do you have this much cash what are you [45:38] saving for and my answer is always I [45:40] don't know I have no idea what I'm [45:42] saving for who are we to assume that we [45:45] can predict the risks that are going to [45:47] be in our own personal lives and [45:49] throughout the broader World nobody can [45:51] do it the only way to prepare for it is [45:52] to have what feels like too much safety [45:55] what is your capital strategy how do you [45:57] invest your money um this is you know [46:00] this is the thing people want to know [46:01] most about you I keep it as painfully [46:04] simple as I possibly can so literally my [46:06] entire net worth is cash a house and [46:09] index funds and some shares of Marquel [46:11] where I'm on the board of directors and [46:13] that's it there's nothing else my entire [46:15] I can summarize everything so easily and [46:18] so cleanly and truly that's it and it's [46:20] not even like I have 20 bank accounts I [46:22] I have one bank account one brokerage [46:23] account like in a house and that's it so [46:25] simple why why index funds you're the [46:28] reason I your Capital allocation [46:31] strategy is almost identical to mine I [46:32] want to talk about the house thing as [46:33] well but um after reading your book I [46:36] stopped trying to pick stocks yeah and I [46:39] invested all of my available Capital [46:41] into index funds outside of investing it [46:45] in starting companies so I'm a [46:46] shareholder in I don't know 50 60 70 [46:48] companies I all my other available [46:51] capital is invested in index funds and [46:53] then I have a very long-standing [46:57] position in ethereum which I've held for [46:58] like six years or something which has [47:00] done me very well yeah that is it and [47:02] the ethereum investment is also based on [47:05] the fact that I run a software business [47:07] that is in blockchain and I could see [47:09] that developers are building on top of [47:10] ethereum more than any other blockchain [47:12] so that Insight was really beneficial to [47:15] me and six years so even with the big [47:18] fall of the last two years you're still [47:20] up a lot yeah I I think your book taught [47:23] me that successful investing is when you [47:26] lose the pass to your investment account [47:28] yes that's exactly it I don't actually [47:30] think you said that in there but that's [47:31] like when I lose the password to my [47:33] investment account I'm so proud of [47:34] myself yeah because it means I haven't [47:36] checked it in [47:37] forever and so it was funny because you [47:39] were coming today I thought oh yeah well [47:41] I have all this money in these index [47:42] funds I'll check it and I thought [ __ ] I [47:44] don't know the password good that's why [47:46] you're going to do okay the reason I do [47:48] this what's important is that I am not [47:49] one of the people who says nobody can [47:51] beat the market so therefore use index [47:52] funds that's not what I believe I think [47:54] there I think it's extremely hard to [47:56] beat the market and very few people will [47:58] do it but I think there are really smart [48:00] people who can do it and people who I [48:02] know who I could invest with the reason [48:04] I don't is not because I don't believe [48:06] it can be done it's because the variable [48:07] that I want to maximize for in my [48:09] investments is endurance if I can just [48:12] earn average returns for an above [48:13] average period of time it's going to [48:15] lead to amount of success that will [48:17] literally put you in the top 5% of [48:19] investors my parents are a great example [48:22] of this my parents are smart people but [48:24] they really they have no Financial [48:25] background and they like minimal [48:27] financial interest I would say and but [48:29] they have dollar cost average into index [48:31] funds for going on 40 years now and [48:34] literally if you look at the returns [48:35] they've never sold anything ever and [48:37] literally if you look at the returns [48:38] they'd probably be in the top 3% of [48:40] professional investors what is for [48:42] anyone that doesn't know what is dollar [48:43] cost averaging and what is an index fund [48:45] dollar cost averaging means you buy the [48:48] same dollar amount of Investments every [48:50] single month come hell or high water [48:51] doesn't matter what the stock market's [48:52] doing recession boom bust you say I'm [48:55] going to put $100 or whatever it is in [48:57] the stock mark on the first of every [48:59] month now most people who like have a [49:00] 401k at work are doing this whether they [49:03] know it or not they have $100 or [49:05] whatever removed from every paycheck and [49:07] it goes into the funds that they own and [49:09] they don't have to do anything whether [49:10] you know it or not you're actually doing [49:11] it the contrast to that would say I'm G [49:14] to buy and sell based off of how I feel [49:16] in the stock market I wake up I watch [49:18] CNBC I decided to sell and I'm going to [49:20] put it back in when I feel better about [49:21] the market it's the contrast to that an [49:23] index fund is just a single fund that [49:25] owns hundreds or or thousands of stocks [49:28] within it and if it's diverse enough if [49:30] it's big enough really what you're doing [49:31] is you're owning a slice of the global [49:33] economy which is how I think about it [49:35] it's thousands of individual stocks in [49:37] there Tesla Apple whatever it would be [49:39] but really what you're doing is you're [49:40] owning a slice of capitalism if I was [49:42] your son and I said Dad prove to me that [49:44] that's a better long-term wealth [49:46] creation strategy than buying crypto or [49:49] buying companies that I use or like how [49:51] would you explain that to your to your [49:54] kid your ability to do well over the [49:56] next one year or 5 years is going to [49:58] have no role whatsoever on your lifetime [50:00] ability to generate wealth all that's [50:02] going to matter is not what are the best [50:05] returns you can earn all that matters [50:07] are is what are the returns that you can [50:08] sustain for the longest period of time [50:10] all that matters is your endurance it [50:12] doesn't matter if you can double your [50:13] money this year or even double your [50:15] money again the next year all that [50:16] matters is can you stick and keep it [50:19] going for 50 years that's where [50:21] compounding comes from prove it all [50:23] because the formula for compounding is [50:25] returns to the power of time [50:27] that's not quite it but like more or [50:28] less that's it so in that equation if [50:30] you understand the math all of the heavy [50:32] lifting comes from the exponent prove it [50:34] because that's how exponential growth [50:36] works that's how it works it's literally [50:38] exponential give me a case study where [50:39] someone has followed that strategy and [50:41] done well okay here's one way to explain [50:42] it that I use in the book 99% of Warren [50:46] Buffett's net worth was accumulated [50:48] after his 60th [50:49] birthday after he turned 60 years old [50:52] 99% of his wealth Jesus has been [50:54] accumulated after that period because [50:56] the longer do you hold that for the [50:58] crazier the numbers get when he was 60 I [51:00] think he was worth about $3 billion lot [51:02] of money he's a multi-billionaire but [51:04] now that he's 90 he's worth over hundred [51:06] billion and he's given like a 100 [51:07] billion away to charity so if he didn't [51:09] do that he'd be worth he'd go from three [51:10] billion to 200 billion since he's been [51:12] 60 because the numbers just get crazier [51:15] at that point he's worth a hundred [51:16] billion dollar so if his if his Market [51:18] if his net worth goes up 10% in one year [51:20] he makes $1 billion which is three times [51:22] that he was worth when he was 60 so [51:25] that's when you look at somebody like [51:26] Buffett is he a great investor is he a [51:28] great stock picker of course but the [51:30] real secret to his success is that he's [51:33] been a good investor for 80 years and if [51:36] he had retired at age 60 or at age 50 [51:38] nobody would have ever heard of him he [51:40] would have been like one of the other [51:42] multi-billionaires who lives in Florida [51:44] and plays golf and like you've never [51:45] heard of him the reason he use a [51:47] household name is because he's been [51:49] doing this non-stop since he's since [51:51] he's been 11 years old and he's never [51:52] stopped it's just the endurance that's [51:54] made him so wealthy not necessarily the [51:56] annual returns patience it's a difficult [51:59] thing it also reminds me of the story [52:00] that you talk about in the introduction [52:01] of your book about the janitor Ronald [52:03] James Reed yeah who when he died in 2014 [52:08] age 92 had a net worth of over 8 [52:11] million and he was a janitor how did he [52:14] do that he took what very little money [52:16] he could save from his job as a janitor [52:18] mopping floors at the gas station he put [52:21] it in stocks and he left it alone for 70 [52:23] years and that's it that's all you need [52:25] that's all you need to do if you have [52:27] endurance in your investing and you can [52:29] keep it going for years or decades you [52:31] don't need to be a genius stock picker [52:34] and not only you do not need to do it if [52:35] you have endurance you're going to beat [52:37] literally 97 or 99% of the genius stock [52:41] Pickers and what's so interesting about [52:43] it is like picking the right stocks is [52:45] hard it's supposed to be hard like [52:47] there's no world in which everybody who [52:48] tries to beat the market is going to do [52:50] it of course it's hard just like being [52:51] an NBA player is hard and but having [52:54] endurance is like largely in your [52:55] control [52:56] it's so much easier to just be patient [52:59] than it is to pick the right stocks [53:01] every single day now I think some people [53:03] nature nurture some people like probably [53:04] Ronald Reed and my parents Ju Just [53:07] understand it naturally it's not hard [53:08] for them to be patient but do like there [53:11] are professional investors who work 80 [53:13] hours a week for 30 years to try to beat [53:16] the market and they can't do it not only [53:18] some that that explains like most of [53:20] them and even the ones who can do it are [53:21] maybe going to beat the market by half a [53:23] percent per year 1% per year but if you [53:25] can have Endor [53:27] that is that's a bigger benefit than you [53:29] can have by even being like a very [53:31] successful stock picker like somebody [53:32] who outperforms the market by one [53:34] percentage Point per year and they can [53:36] do that for 10 years that's amazing [53:39] that's like Mount Rushmore investor but [53:41] somebody who earns average returns and [53:43] does it for 20 years is going to have [53:45] way more money you do it for 30 years [53:47] you're going to be Filthy Rich you be [53:49] like Ronald Reed you can be a janitor [53:50] who leaves 8 million to charity when you [53:52] die but so in the case of Ronald Reed do [53:54] you not look at him a little bit and go [53:56] listen bro if you had eight or9 million [53:59] in the bank you should have been living [54:00] it up see this is one I I do kind of [54:03] regret that in the book that I'm I kind [54:05] of I didn't say it explicitly but I kind [54:07] of make him out to be a role model and I [54:09] don't think that's the case he he's not [54:10] my role model I think he's a fascinating [54:13] story of somebody who became Rich [54:15] despite not having any of the pedigree [54:18] or any of the skills that you are [54:20] normally associated with wealthy people [54:22] but you're right that he lived in a a a [54:26] s wed housing and he worked as a janitor [54:28] that's not my goal so I I I want to live [54:30] a nice life I want to be independent but [54:32] he's the most extreme example that you [54:34] can come up with and I I I wish I had [54:36] stated that more clearly in the book A [54:37] lot of people have this conversation [54:39] around pensions and in the UK we we can [54:41] pay money from our salary into our [54:43] pension but I think a lot of people [54:45] think gosh when I'm 60 when I'm 65 I [54:48] want to be rich I want to be rich when [54:49] I'm 25 yeah and I can go to Vegas and [54:53] you know ball out and buy nice things [54:56] and have great experiences not when I'm [54:58] 65 yeah no I think that's true I think [55:00] there are a lot of people a lot of [55:01] financial advisers will say that one of [55:03] the hardest things they do as an adviser [55:05] is getting their clients to spend money [55:07] because they've been so conditioned to [55:08] save save save save save that when they [55:11] finally retire at 65 they don't know how [55:12] to spend they have no clue how to spend [55:14] money there's a great uh author I think [55:16] you've had him on your show RIT Siti who [55:18] talks about this a lot like how you like [55:19] you need to learn how to live a a rich [55:22] life and figure out what that is for you [55:24] for some people like for me it's just [55:25] like my my happy state is like sitting [55:28] on the couch in sweatpants reading a [55:30] book going for a walk with my wife [55:31] that's that's that's my rich life that I [55:33] love doing and to do that I need to be [55:35] independent and autonomous so I can do [55:37] that all day long I can do that on a [55:38] Wednesday afternoon rid talks a lot [55:40] about like maybe your rich life I think [55:42] for him it's flying first class and [55:44] wearing nice clothes and he talks about [55:46] like he drives I think like a beat up [55:48] Honda but he flies first class and he [55:50] dresses very nicely so you just have to [55:52] figure out what is the little thing [55:53] that's going to make you happy and I [55:55] think a lot of people's problem is that [55:57] Society tells you what you're supposed [56:00] to do to be happy you're supposed to [56:02] have a nice car you're supposed to have [56:03] a big house supposed to wear nice [56:04] clothes that's what Society tells you to [56:06] do and for some people that might be the [56:08] case for other people like me I think it [56:10] it's not that's that that would not ever [56:13] make me happy what does make me happy is [56:15] Independence so I can just do these [56:16] little quirky things that I like to do [56:18] so I think you just have to figure out [56:20] the little things that make you happy [56:22] rather than just being forced by Society [56:24] into what they want you to do [56:26] knowing when enough is enough this was [56:28] one of [56:29] the most interesting things that I think [56:31] really rang true to me was how do I know [56:34] in my life when enough is enough I've [56:35] definitely been a victim to that [56:36] external narrative that I need to have [56:38] these things in my life to be a happy [56:40] person but how does one go about knowing [56:43] when enough is enough I think back to [56:46] the story of my father he just woke up [56:47] one day and it was obvious that he would [56:50] he had been doing what he did for long [56:53] enough and it was he had felt like he [56:54] had enough and whatnot and he and he [56:56] broke away from it I [56:58] think for for a lot of people it's just [57:00] I one thing that's important about the [57:01] concept of having enough in Independence [57:03] is that when most people even if they [57:05] are independent they wake up every [57:07] morning what they want to do is go to [57:08] work one of one of the big problems with [57:10] the fire movement the financial [57:11] Independence retire early movement where [57:13] people are like they're going to be a [57:14] Super Saver and then retire at age 31 [57:16] whatever it' be so many of those people [57:18] who actually did that and retired at age [57:21] 31 they once they retired after about [57:23] two weeks they were bored out of their [57:24] mind and if they did it for six months [57:26] they were clinically depressed cuz for [57:28] most people you want to be productive [57:30] you want to keep doing it so having [57:33] enough doesn't necessarily mean that [57:34] you're going to stop working it just [57:36] means you're going to keep doing only [57:37] the work that you want to do there's a [57:39] really interesting question that Patrick [57:40] oesi asked a lot of people uh in in his [57:44] office he says if you won a billion [57:46] dollars in the lottery but you had to [57:48] stay at this job you're a billionaire [57:50] but you can't quit what did this company [57:52] would you want to do and what would you [57:54] get rid of and virtually everyone has an [57:56] answer for that question they say oh if [57:58] I didn't need the money but I have to [57:59] stay I would love to work on this [58:01] project I love working on this thing [58:03] this that and the other is all [ __ ] [58:05] to me so like in any job there's going [58:08] to be something that you want to do [58:09] there's going to be some project there's [58:10] going to be some position or or or maybe [58:12] it's like being an artist whatever it [58:13] would be it's not that you stop working [58:15] it's that when you have enough you get [58:16] to pick and choose which of those things [58:18] you're going to end up doing it's often [58:20] too late in our lives when we realize [58:21] the cost that we've paid for enough [58:24] never being enough you know it could [58:26] could be family it could be Health [58:27] whatever um I always reflect on the with [58:30] Brony we wasn't it who interviewed [58:31] people on their deathbeds and found out [58:33] that the biggest regret of the dying was [58:34] not living a life true to themselves [58:36] working too much Etc but that's on your [58:38] deathbed there's nothing you can do at [58:39] that point right and I think a lot about [58:41] this like what am I going to regret yes [58:43] I think about that too I think this is [58:45] this is pretty morbid to think about but [58:46] I think about if I were on my deathbed [58:48] tomorrow would I regret working hard and [58:51] saving a lot of money and my answer is [58:52] absolutely not it would give me so much [58:54] pleasure to know that my wife and my [58:56] young kids are going to be fine and the [58:58] opposite of that I cannot fathom being [59:00] on my deathbed and looking at my wife [59:02] and my 8-year-old son and my [59:03] four-year-old daughter and thinking you [59:05] guys are screwed that would that that [59:07] would that would be the biggest regret I [59:08] can fathom so I think a lot of people [59:10] would look at someone with a high [59:11] savings rate like me and would assume [59:13] that I'm going to regret it on my [59:15] deathbed and who knows but I I I have to [59:17] think it would actually be the opposite [59:19] what makes me gives me so much happiness [59:21] and pleasure is taking care of my family [59:23] and if I were to go tomorrow I wouldn't [59:25] regret for one second the car that I [59:27] didn't buy the big house I didn't buy [59:30] the nice clothes I didn't buy not for a [59:31] second would I regret not doing those [59:33] it's a really good frame to think there [59:34] isn't it about our financial decision- [59:36] making and you know a lot of people like [59:38] saving up to buy a lot of nonsense [59:40] that's going to depreciate and would you [59:42] rather have a little Nest Egg left over [59:44] for the ones you love or buy that [59:46] Lamborghini there's another great book [59:48] called die with zero which basically the [59:51] title is self-explanatory and one of the [59:54] concepts is even if you want to give [59:55] money away way to your family don't wait [59:57] until you die don't make your kids wait [59:59] or like hope you're going to die so they [60:00] can get their inheritance give it to [60:02] them when it really matters which for [60:03] most people is in their 30s and 40s if [60:05] you wait until you die at age 90 and [60:08] your kids are 60 and then they get your [60:10] money like what's the purpose of that [60:12] give it to them when they need it when [60:13] they're raising kids and whatnot that's [60:15] when they need your money I I I really [60:17] like that concept I think about that [60:19] with my own kids the counter point to [60:20] that is though if I just give my kids [60:22] money then like the chth quote [60:26] they might lose it quick think about [60:28] that especially as you know someone that [60:30] has a lot of cash they could give I [60:32] think about this because at some point [60:33] I'm G to have kids and they're going to [60:34] Daddy I want to do a driving lesson or [60:36] they're going to be 18 and go off to [60:38] University or whatever God I hope they [60:39] don't go to university um and they're [60:41] going to say like I've got nowhere to [60:43] live or I found this nice apartment dad [60:46] and in those moments do I make the [60:47] decision to pay for it because I can or [60:50] withhold it because they need to learn [60:51] the hard way I have this yeah I'd call [60:54] it an argument with my girlfriend [60:56] where I say babe listen when we have [60:57] kids they're going to sit an economy and [61:00] she's like absolutely not yeah and I'm [61:03] like no babe when they get okay we made [61:05] a deal I think we got to about when [61:06] they're 12 years old I'm going to put [61:07] them in economy so they can learn for [61:09] themselves the value of things see we we [61:13] made this mistake I don't think I've [61:14] ever talked about this but it was about [61:15] a year ago we flew my son who was me I [61:18] guess he was seven at the time we flew [61:19] first class and we explained to him that [61:22] this was not normal this was not going [61:24] to be the way it is as soon as as he did [61:26] it he went home he told all of our [61:27] neighbors told all of his friends told [61:29] everybody at school and that was when my [61:32] I like can't can't do this never again [61:35] you see how quickly somebody can be [61:36] spoiled or use that to try to show other [61:39] people that they are superior to them [61:41] that's when it was like no no we can't [61:42] ever do this ever again and you moved [61:44] his expectations in a way absolutely I [61:46] didn't fly first class till I was 35 and [61:48] he did it at 7 and so that my when I [61:50] first did it at 35 I remember feeling a [61:53] I earned this I worked for this and Al [61:56] felt so special to me because I'd flown [61:57] coach 9,000 times before that so it felt [62:00] amazing and so that's I I I think about [62:02] that a lot there's a great quote from [62:03] Charlie Munger where one of his rich [62:05] friends says Charlie if I give my kids [62:08] all of my money is that going to ruin [62:10] their ambition and Charlie says of [62:12] course it will but you have to do it [62:14] anyways and the guy says why and Charlie [62:16] says because if you don't your kids will [62:17] hate you and I think that's that too is [62:20] like lots of Charlie Monger quotes are [62:22] are framed as black and white they're [62:24] extreme but I think that's probably like [62:25] 80% true really that it's it's maybe 70% [62:29] true that if you are a wealthy person [62:31] and I'm not talking billionaires if you [62:32] just have a moderate amount of wealth [62:34] that you might pass along to your kids [62:35] someday that your two options are kind [62:37] of at least to some extent hurt their [62:39] ambition or risk some level of strife [62:42] and it's always child dependent like I [62:44] always make the example that if [62:46] 18-year-old Bill Gates or Mark [62:47] Zuckerberg or Elon Musk inherited a [62:49] billion dollars would have made any [62:51] difference to their ambition they would [62:52] have they would not have slowed them [62:54] down by one second but most people [62:56] including myself it would have like I [62:59] was driven by fear of not making it [63:01] which is what most people are I was I [63:03] was scared shitless that I was not going [63:05] to find the right career that I wasn't [63:07] going to make it and that's what drove [63:08] me some people don't need that but I [63:12] think it's very rare I think the huge [63:14] majority of people if you give them an [63:16] easy life they will take it and embrace [63:18] it with both hands making money and [63:20] keeping money require two different [63:22] skills you you've spoken about a few of [63:24] the skills that are required for making [63:26] money the one that really stuck out to [63:28] me that you've discussed so far is this [63:29] idea of endurance patience regardless of [63:32] what's happening in the markets [63:33] regardless of the volatility lose your [63:35] password and sit on your hands just on [63:38] that point as well I remember reading [63:39] somewhere it might have even been your [63:40] book you know it's so crazy because the [63:43] things that I know about money I can't [63:44] remember where I've got them from but [63:46] most of them came from this book like [63:48] most of the principles came from this [63:49] book and one of the things that I read [63:51] was that Warren Buffett would go like [63:53] five years without allocating capital [63:55] and this where he said the hardest thing [63:58] to be a great investor is to be able to [64:00] sit on your hands and do nothing sit on [64:01] your ass and do nothing that's it that's [64:03] that's AER quote and that's what they're [64:05] doing right now right now Berkshire [64:06] hathway which is Warren Buffett's [64:07] company has like $150 billion dollar of [64:09] cash right now and that's their entire [64:12] uh 60-year history of Warren Buffett and [64:14] Brookshire hathway is build up a [64:16] shitload of cash wait 10 years for an [64:18] opportunity deploy it all and then go [64:21] back to waiting and building up cash [64:23] crazy and that's that's that's how they [64:24] done it good opportunities are rare of [64:26] course they are they should be rare it [64:27] shouldn't be that anybody can just open [64:29] up their stock account and find the [64:30] opportunity of a lifetime what are the [64:32] gonna come once a decade what are the [64:33] other skills then endurance patience to [64:35] create to get money for the for the [64:38] ordinary person endurance and patience [64:40] is 99% of what you need as an investor [64:42] because the opportunities there to [64:44] invest in a lowcost Index Fund are [64:46] available for everybody and you can do [64:47] that from your phone like you do it from [64:48] your phone open up a Robinhood account [64:50] buy some index funds anybody can do that [64:52] and so that and but that was not always [64:54] the case it used to be 20 years ago that [64:57] the only people who could invest were [64:58] people who had a lot of money and could [65:00] afford a broker and had connection to a [65:01] broker and you yet to like make a phone [65:02] call make a phone call you had to know a [65:04] guy and even then you were going to pay [65:05] a ridiculous fee to that person for do [65:08] pieces of paper and all kinds it was a [65:09] joke and that's 20 years ago it's not [65:11] that long ago so I think like people [65:13] aren't grateful enough or appreciative [65:16] enough of how much things have changed [65:18] that open up those opportunities for [65:19] everybody you talk about the skill of [65:21] keeping money which is different from [65:22] the skill of getting money is predicated [65:26] on Survival Financial survival and just [65:28] putting up with all the unpredictable [65:31] nonsense that's going to happen between [65:33] now and the end of your life and we [65:35] talked earlier about the surprises Pearl [65:37] Harbor 9911 all these big surprises just [65:40] it's just your ability to endure things [65:42] like that that's going to be literally [65:44] 90% of your financial success and your [65:46] investing success so gaining money is [65:48] like being an optimist and taking a risk [65:50] like being optimistic about yourself [65:52] swinging for the fences you need that to [65:54] get rich staying rich is is like the [65:56] exact opposite you need a level of being [65:58] conservative you need to be scared you [66:01] need to be like acknowledge of all the [66:03] unknown risks that are in front of us [66:05] and have a financial allocation and a [66:07] mindset that's going to allow you to [66:09] endure them and survive them financially [66:11] you need both of those skills at the [66:12] same time so well your kid is 20 years [66:15] old he's broke do you tell him to go and [66:19] take huge outsized risks he's not got a [66:21] family he's not got a mortgage he's not [66:22] got a dog what advice do you give him at [66:25] that age to create wealth I would [66:27] actually say I think this is a little [66:28] counterintuitive that when somebody is [66:29] Young you you think you would say you [66:31] got 50 years in front of you swing for [66:33] the fences go for it it's also when your [66:35] life is the most fragile it's when [66:37] you're most likely to be laid off most [66:39] likely to change your career most likely [66:40] to break up or get divorced whatever it [66:42] would be and so for that you need quite [66:45] a bit of financial flexibility just cash [66:47] and liquidity so once you had some level [66:49] built up whatever the level might be for [66:51] a different person then like do [66:53] something crazy I also think for careers [66:56] some of the best career advice that's [66:58] maybe not Universal but when you [67:00] graduate college and you're looking at [67:02] your career don't take the safe job [67:04] which is usually like the big company [67:06] the blue chick company go for the weird [67:08] company why go for something crazy [67:10] because when you're older when you're 40 [67:12] and you have two kids and a mortgage [67:14] you're not going to want to take the [67:15] weird job that's when you want the [67:17] stability that's when you're probably [67:18] going to want the job that's has good [67:20] benefits and a stable paycheck cuz you [67:22] need that when you're 22 and you're not [67:24] tied down by anything [67:26] don't go work for Goldman Sachs or apple [67:28] or deoe or something like that go for [67:29] the weird startup where you like you're [67:31] you're going to learn something [67:32] completely different linked to that [67:35] point is in the weird startup you're [67:37] going to be so close to the failure and [67:38] failure is the knowledge you're going to [67:40] learn so much much and there's so many [67:42] people who take the blue chip the safe [67:44] job out of college and it puts them on a [67:46] very predictable track you're going to [67:48] be an analyst for two years and then if [67:49] you're good you'll get promoted to [67:51] senior analyst and then you'll get [67:53] promoted to associate it's like very [67:54] stable and linear and that's the like [67:57] it's you're capping all of your upside [67:59] where if you go for the weird company [68:00] you're either going to do one of two [68:01] things it's either going to fail and [68:03] you're going to learn a lot from that or [68:05] it's going to take off and you're going [68:06] to learn a lot from that and then maybe [68:07] when you're 40 after going through all [68:09] that then you want the stable job at the [68:11] big company it's interesting I was [68:13] thinking as you're speaking that the [68:14] proximity from your desk and the [68:17] CEOs probably needs to widen over time [68:20] yes I think I think that's that's true [68:22] yeah absolutely and mo most people I [68:24] think if they if you do it the other way [68:26] around or most people would never do it [68:27] the other around if you start your [68:29] career in the stable company you're [68:31] probably never going to leave you're [68:32] going to get addicted to the nice [68:34] paycheck the stable benefits whatnot and [68:36] you're never going to take a risk and do [68:37] anything else maybe that's okay maybe [68:39] for some people's personalities that's [68:40] exactly what they want but I think there [68:42] is a higher level of regret for people [68:44] that start in a safe company and then [68:46] they get the golden handcuffs they can't [68:47] leave and by the time they're 40 and [68:50] they realize that they wanted to work at [68:51] the crazy company they can't because [68:52] they got a mortgage and two kids and [68:54] they're saving for retirement and they [68:55] can't take the risk at that level of [68:57] their life you introduced this concept [68:59] of [69:00] tales long tales and this also changed [69:04] my life changed my investment strategy I [69:05] should probably say you talk about the [69:07] example of venture capital where for [69:09] every 50 Investments That Venture [69:11] capitalists make statistically half of [69:14] them will completely fail 10 will do [69:16] okay and one or two will make huge [69:19] profits that drive 100% of the funds [69:21] returns yeah this is a lesson about [69:23] investing in finance but it's also me a [69:25] lesson about life it's always life yeah [69:27] it applies to everything Tales where [69:30] just a couple of things that happen [69:32] explain 90 or 99% of what matters it's [69:36] always the case you see it in business [69:38] where you take in the United States [69:40] there are you know thousands of public [69:42] companies that you can buy stock in but [69:44] the huge majority of the value in the US [69:47] Stock Market is in like 10 companies [69:48] Apple Tesa Microsoft so even though you [69:51] have thousands of companies 10 of them [69:52] are the ones that really matter and are [69:54] going to drive all of the r turns over [69:55] time so why you just buy those 10 [69:57] because nobody knows what they're going [69:58] to be at least in hindsight that that [70:00] that's the argument for owning a [70:01] thousand of them is that you know that [70:03] the 10 that are going to be the next big [70:04] ones are going to be in there all of [70:06] this is a case for humility this is [70:08] honestly what I took away from your book [70:10] you're expecting to walk away with tips [70:14] all these tips these tricks these [70:15] special ways to make more money than [70:17] everybody what I came away with is this [70:20] one important lesson that I've never [70:23] been able to unsee which is I don't know [70:26] I I think that's great and that back to [70:28] I wrote this book for myself that's been [70:30] the biggest lesson for me is not only do [70:33] I know but nobody else knows either [70:35] everyone everyone else is bullshitting [70:36] their way through the investing Market [70:37] too they don't know either I'm in this [70:39] crypto chat where one of my friends I [70:41] won't disparage him one of my friends [70:43] he's the guy in the chat that's always [70:44] posting the forecast graphs you know [70:46] those ones where they kind of like the [70:47] little logger graphs where they forecast [70:49] where the stock or the crypto where they [70:50] think it's going to go right and it's [70:52] always it's always up and to the right [70:56] um and it's kind of like male horoscopes [70:58] I heard someone say that that that's [71:00] such a great yeah no I think that's I [71:02] think what's closest to investing is [71:03] something like the horoscope or even if [71:05] you know it's [ __ ] you want to read [71:06] it why because it's comforting what a [71:09] lot of people want out of their [71:10] investing forecasts or whatever it is is [71:12] they want to reduce the uncertainty [71:14] that's giving them stress because [71:16] everyone I think intuitively knows that [71:17] the future in front of us is unknown and [71:19] it's unknowable but that hurts and so if [71:22] it hurts you try to reduce that stress [71:24] by finding someone who says I do know [71:26] what's going to happen you know what [71:27] this applies as well is I read Amazon's [71:29] Jeff Bezos who's the CEO and founder of [71:30] Amazon his shareholder letter where he [71:33] says we have to be the best place in the [71:35] world to fail um we swing for the fences [71:38] 10 times and for every 10 swings nine of [71:41] them are in the Amazon graveyard he's [71:43] talking there about a9.com which nobody [71:45] knows cuz failed the fir phone which [71:47] nobody knows but the one in 10 pay for [71:50] the entirety of the graveyard the one in [71:51] one 10 is going to be AWS which make 70 [71:54] billion this year right he talked about [71:55] that when the fir phone from Amazon [71:57] which if you don't know Amazon built a [71:59] cell phone it's called the fir phone and [72:00] it was a joke it was a disaster it was a [72:02] massive flop and he was doing like an [72:04] analyst call and this analyst talked [72:07] about like hey the Fire Phone flopped [72:09] like what happened there and bezo said [72:10] if you think that was a big failure just [72:12] wait you've seen nothing yet and like [72:14] that's why Amazon's successful they're [72:16] willing to try a thousand things with [72:18] the idea that they know 990 of them are [72:21] going to fail but the 10 that work are [72:23] going to be massive and you can fail [72:25] well and have the mentality to fail and [72:28] the financial backing to be able to fail [72:30] like make sure your bets are not that [72:32] big and you can just keep taking little [72:33] risks all the time the optionality that [72:36] you get from that like the odds that one [72:38] or two of those are going to explode are [72:40] huge it's massive I mean it's no [72:42] different than how do you win the [72:44] lottery you have to buy thousands and [72:46] thousands or millions of tickets if you [72:48] buy billions of tickets you'll probably [72:49] win the lottery it's probably not going [72:50] to pay off because it doesn't work like [72:52] that but it's the same concept like if [72:54] you if you if you take enough swings at [72:56] bat one of them is going to hit [72:58] eventually and this is also [73:01] a reason why some companies look [73:04] Innovative they look like their Geniuses [73:05] but in fact their failure rate is [73:08] massive massive there's a story at at at [73:10] Netflix several years ago where there [73:12] was uh a report to the CEO and the and [73:15] the report was all of the new movies [73:18] that we've come out that that we've that [73:19] we've produced have been successful and [73:22] whoever presented that probably thought [73:23] this is great this is what you want hear [73:25] and the CEO said that's terrible that [73:27] means we're not taking enough risks if [73:29] every movie that we release is a hit [73:32] we're not taking risks like you want [73:34] your failure rate to be at least some [73:36] that that's when you know you're at [73:37] least trying something new it's the same [73:39] like if you're managing uh a hotel you [73:42] don't want every room to be sold out [73:44] because that means you're not pricing [73:45] high enough you know you're doing a good [73:46] job when you have 10 empty rooms that's [73:49] when you know you're pricing the other [73:50] rooms at a high enough rate so there's [73:53] always going to be like some level of [73:55] what looks like failure that you need [73:57] and if you don't have it you're not [73:58] taking a big enough risk Daniel X sat [74:00] here and he said the same thing he goes [74:02] one of the most important metrics that I [74:03] think about at Spotify is our mistake [74:06] rate yeah and people will think okay so [74:08] he wants to limit mistakes very much the [74:10] opposite he wants to make sure that the [74:12] company maintains that sort of startup [74:15] mentality and they increase their rate [74:17] of mistakes and this brings me to [74:19] something which I kind of hit me like a [74:21] truck um in your new book same as ever [74:23] which was this idea that we need to keep [74:25] running now there were areas in my [74:27] professional life where I've been [74:28] successful poas is doing well I think [74:31] doing pretty well and I had a I had a [74:33] car Journey with Jima who's through the [74:35] wall who you met and we last time we [74:37] came to well I'm in the front seat of [74:38] the car and I go Jima do you know what [74:39] our biggest um our biggest threat is now [74:43] complacency when people get successful [74:46] they play defense to their detriment um [74:50] they don't play offense as much as they [74:52] need to to keep up with the rate of [74:54] change in the world and then a young [74:57] Scrappy agile incumbent who has a high [75:00] risk appetite will take their cheese [75:03] right and your chapter on keep running [75:05] there's two quotes that I really pulled [75:06] out chapter is called keep running and [75:09] the quot two quotes that I pulled out [75:11] were competitive advantages tend to be [75:14] shortlived often because their success [75:17] plants the seeds of their own decline [75:21] one more quote it's easy to overlook how [75:24] many forces pull you away from your [75:26] competitive Advantage once you have one [75:29] specifically because you have one [75:31] success has its own gravity that's right [75:34] and the the the the biggest source of [75:36] gravity there is laziness the reason [75:38] you're successful is because you work so [75:40] hard to get to where you were and now [75:42] that you feel like you've made it now [75:43] that you feel like you're on the top of [75:44] the mountain top you get lazy and that's [75:46] so many companies fall for that so many [75:47] careers fall for that there's a great [75:49] story from Jerry Seinfeld where he said [75:51] that one of the reasons that he quit the [75:53] show when it was still going gang [75:55] Busters is because he could start to [75:56] sense that what made the show successful [75:59] was starting to be was starting to go [76:01] away he said and part of the reason is [76:03] was because he got so famous when he was [76:06] not that famous he could go sit in a [76:08] coffee shop and watch how people ordered [76:10] their coffee and make a joke out of it [76:12] he was observing how Society worked once [76:14] he got very famous he couldn't do that [76:16] anymore he was too famous to go sit in a [76:17] deli and watch how people order their [76:19] sandwiches he couldn't do it so [76:20] therefore he didn't have a lot of the [76:22] source material that he had before and [76:24] so he was like look what made me so [76:26] funny and the show so successful I can't [76:28] do anymore so like red alert let's pull [76:31] the plug before it gets really bad here [76:33] so that's like a very specific example [76:35] but what he realized that what made him [76:37] successful was gone and a lot of a lot [76:39] of CEOs will will have this problem too [76:42] where what made them successful was that [76:44] they were a scrappy startup founder and [76:46] they were very good at building a [76:47] product but now that the company is big [76:49] and successful they also need to be an [76:50] HR Manager they need to be a finance [76:52] specialist they need to be a marketer [76:54] they need to be all these other things [76:56] and therefore their time is pulled away [76:58] from what they're actually good at which [76:59] was building a product a good example of [77:01] this if I can say it was Travis kenck of [77:04] uber the founder of uber probably nobody [77:07] in the world was better at scaling a [77:09] company like uber than he than he was [77:11] and there were a few people who were [77:13] worse at managing a big company than he [77:16] was so it's like what made Uber [77:18] successful is what pulled him away from [77:21] being a successful manager at that he [77:22] was very good at one thing he was the [77:24] best in the world at that one thing but [77:27] you shouldn't think that like it's going [77:28] to last during when another phase of the [77:30] company's life my person I consider a [77:33] mentor and a friend of mine been a [77:35] long-term friend of mine a guy called [77:36] Shaquille Khan he was one of the very [77:37] first investors in shop in Spotify um [77:39] new Daniel the founder from the very [77:41] Beginnings he said to me um a piece of [77:44] advice that stayed with me and I've also [77:47] imparted on other people at a time when [77:49] I'd left my company I was now [77:51] financially successful um financially [77:53] free by all regards and and I called him [77:55] after leaving my company and I said D I [77:57] said Shaq what should I do now with my [78:00] life he said to me Stephen the reason [78:02] you were successful was because you were [78:04] hungry you need to realize that you're [78:06] no longer hungry for the same reasons [78:09] and what he told me to do was the [78:10] hardest [ __ ] thing I've ever done in [78:11] my life which was nothing he said spend [78:14] a year don't rush back into starting the [78:16] same business again because he said to [78:17] me the reason why you were so [78:20] unbelievably disciplined and would go to [78:21] the office seven days a week was because [78:23] you were like an insecure kid that was [78:24] like fighting to survive that's gone now [78:26] so sit on your hands for a year do [78:28] absolutely nothing and get inspired [78:30] again get get hungry again about [78:31] something new um because my Temptation [78:33] was just to run back in and start a big [78:35] marketing business again or whatever [78:36] yeah I that's kind of what you're you're [78:38] speaking of as well is that like the [78:40] need to understand that our motivations [78:41] evolve and change over time and the [78:43] thing that made us successful might not [78:44] be the thing that makes us successful [78:46] again in a new Venture I think there are [78:47] some people who really can keep it going [78:49] some people who do keep running like [78:50] Elon [ __ ] perfect example guy worth a [78:52] quarter of a trillion dollars still [78:54] works 100 hours a week so there are [78:55] those people who exist but I think for a [78:57] lot of people this should not be a scary [78:59] thing the fact that after you've made it [79:01] and have some success and some some [79:02] wealth that you're not as hungry as you [79:04] used to be that's fine just you just [79:06] have to accept it it gets dangerous when [79:09] people don't realize it and they they [79:11] are less hungry they're not as motivated [79:13] but they're still going to try to go [79:15] start a new business even though they [79:16] don't need it anymore and then they're [79:17] shocked when that business doesn't work [79:19] he said to me you need to take on a [79:22] moonshot and cuz he know he goes you you [79:24] did the first business you did well [79:26] whatever Etc he goes the thing that will [79:27] make you hungry and sufficiently [79:29] terrified is you now need to find a big [79:32] scary terrifying goal that's what Elon [79:34] did with Twitter yeah he'd already [79:36] become the richest man in the world and [79:37] he probably got bored a little bit and [79:38] he said I need to do something that's [79:40] crazy and that even for someone like me [79:42] is going to be an absolute stretch to [79:43] pull off crazy which is buying Twitter [79:45] and running into the ground I mean [79:46] there's no surprise that billionaires [79:48] will seem to start rocket companies yeah [79:50] I mean the reason that they are [79:52] successful is because they have that [79:53] complete swing for def fenses I mean [79:55] most people would quit full stop when [79:57] their net worth hit 10 million or less 3 [80:00] million and so for someone to have a net [80:02] worth of 10 billion and to wake up and [80:04] say I'm going to keep going as hard as I [80:06] possibly can that's why they have that [80:08] level of success it's complete [80:09] insatiable Hunger for More I sat with a [80:12] billionaire when I was [80:13] 20 going to say 24 years old and I sat [80:16] in his office and I thought okay this [80:17] could be really interesting I get to [80:18] meet this very successful person in [80:20] Manchester and I looked into his eyes [80:22] and said why are you doing this like you [80:24] have all this money and it became [80:26] completely apparent to me that it was [80:27] not about the money it was all about [80:29] competition I then went and met another [80:31] billionaire who was in Manchester runs [80:32] another big company Manchester everybody [80:33] knows the company and it was the same [80:35] thing with him it was the thing that had [80:37] got him to a billion was the thing that [80:40] was going to keep him going after a [80:41] billion yeah I mean there's there's a [80:44] chapter in my book about natural Maniacs [80:46] like people like wild Minds people the [80:47] kind of person like Elon Musk who has [80:49] that mindset to say you know when he was [80:52] 30 years old or whatever he took on GM [80:55] Ford Chrysler and NASA when he was like [80:57] 30 the kind of person who thinks that is [81:00] not the kind of person who's going to [81:01] say I have enough I'm going to put it [81:03] all in Muni bonds and go live on the [81:04] farm like it's not the person who thinks [81:07] they can do that and can pull that off [81:09] is the kind of person who's never going [81:10] to stop if Elon Must List till he's 97 [81:12] he's going to be starting new rocket [81:13] companies for sure do you think he's [81:15] happy no absolutely none I think most [81:17] people in that situation the word that I [81:19] would use is tortured I think they wake [81:21] up every morning tortured at the [81:23] problems that they are aspiring to solve [81:25] that they haven't solved yet there's [81:27] almost no biography of a very successful [81:30] person like that of that level of [81:32] success that you would read their [81:33] biography and say that life sounds great [81:35] it's one of the things that hit me like [81:36] a train truck was those two billionaires [81:38] I met were just the most miserable [81:40] people absolutely and I met their their [81:42] one of their sons and they go dad is so [81:44] unhappy I remember him saying that to me [81:46] and just go [ __ ] he's going to that [81:48] office every single day has a billion [81:49] dollars and his kids think he's like sad [81:52] there's this amazing story do you [81:54] remember uh [81:55] Myspace back in the day before before [81:57] Facebook and the guy who ran it his name [81:58] was Tom I forget his last name but when [82:00] you signed up for Myspace Tom was your [82:02] first follow he was the founder of [82:04] Myspace and every he followed everybody [82:07] and he sold Myspace I think to Qualicom [82:10] maybe no I'm sorry he sold he sold [82:13] Myspace to Viacom and uh did pretty well [82:16] let's say I'm guessing let's say he made [82:18] $50 million it's probably something in [82:20] in in in that range it's it's probably [82:21] nothing that's dramatic 500 was it he [82:24] sold the company for that much actually [82:26] don't but it was it was it was it was a [82:28] good but not extraordinary sum of money [82:30] and you can see his life on Instagram [82:32] it's not exaggeration he's like travels [82:34] around the world with his girlfriend [82:36] hiking in Bali it looks like at least [82:38] from Instagram he lives this amazing [82:39] life and then think about Mark [82:41] Zuckerberg who is like every year hauled [82:43] before Congress where he's like screamed [82:46] at for causing all of society's ills and [82:48] he has so much on his shoulders and [82:50] Facebook stock fell 70% last year [82:53] because everyone thinks it's going to [82:54] and like it looks like a very stressful [82:56] incredible amount of pressure on his [82:58] shoulders if you were to ask me which [83:01] one of those lives would I take would I [83:02] rather be someone with $50 million who [83:04] was traveling around the world hiking in [83:07] Bali with my wife or would I be wor a [83:09] hundred billion do and wake up every [83:11] morning scared shitless with so much [83:13] pressure on my shoulders for me it's [83:15] obvious I'd much rather be Tom than Mark [83:17] but that pressure is a drug in the sense [83:21] that when I say the pressure is a drug I [83:22] mean we know from motivation psychology [83:25] and I mean I think I saw on the back of [83:27] your your book yeah Daniel H pink y [83:30] Daniel pink told me that when people [83:32] aren't sufficiently challenged they lose [83:33] motivation and their level of challenge [83:35] kind of increases so to be engaged with [83:37] a task you need to um and you think of [83:40] this like game psychology the levels [83:42] need to get harder and harder for you to [83:43] be engaged that's why every game we play [83:45] it's not on level one over and over and [83:47] over again we need it to go to level two [83:48] crosswords get more difficult we stay [83:50] engaged do you not think that's the case [83:52] with like a big famous CEO know that [83:54] their engagement appetite their [83:56] challenge appetite just grows and that's [83:59] the only way they can stay engaged solve [84:01] bigger problems I think if you look at [84:02] someone like Bill Gates I think he had [84:04] figured out business and in 2000 he he [84:09] effectively quit Microsoft but he [84:10] immediately moved on to what I think was [84:12] in his mind a bigger problem which was [84:14] like how do I give this money away [84:15] effectively and how do I eradicate [84:17] malaria those kind of problems and so [84:19] even for someone like him who was able [84:20] to extract himself from the business [84:22] they' immediately move on to something [84:24] that I think in his mind was more [84:26] problematic and a bigger challenge so [84:28] there's never going to be a period where [84:29] someone like that were to say I've had [84:30] enough I'm just going to retire to read [84:32] books like that will never be the case [84:34] it's always going to be I think they're [84:35] addicted to the challenge is what it is [84:38] yeah and I think I I think I am I think [84:40] I think everybody is to some extent and [84:42] the mus and the gates those people are [84:44] extreme examples of it but every I think [84:46] everybody needs a minimum level of [84:49] stress in their life and the irony is [84:51] that we all kind of dream about like [84:53] what can I do to at the stress so I just [84:55] wake up in Nirvana every day and you [84:57] can't everyone needs to have some sort [85:00] of conflict Strife challenge stress in [85:03] their life and for I think for a lot of [85:04] people if they don't get it from real [85:06] places they just make up fake problems [85:08] in their life that's that's a big [85:09] problem with people for people who [85:11] richer people who have a lot of things [85:12] they will start worrying and stressing [85:14] about the most minute things because [85:16] they need that stress in their life on [85:19] that point as well just popping back to [85:20] we were talking about the complacency [85:22] the other thing that I think successful [85:24] people become a victim of is their own [85:27] correctness I think about that with me [85:29] like I've been right about several [85:30] decisions in a row so surely that [85:32] creates evidence that I'm probably right [85:34] again and that can be your downfall as [85:36] well or what a lot of it is is you were [85:38] right on this topic and then therefore [85:40] you assume that you're going to be right [85:41] on another topic and you didn't know the [85:42] role luck might have played you didn't [85:44] know what luck would play but let's say [85:45] you're a very successful investor and [85:48] then and they'll say you're like [85:49] massively successful a lot of those [85:50] people will think therefore I can also [85:53] be an effective politician [85:54] therefore I can also be an expert on Co [85:57] whatever it would be because they think [85:58] they're so smart in this area that they [86:00] must be smart in other areas a lot of [86:02] doctors have this problem with investing [86:04] where they think I'm a doctor I'm very [86:06] successful I got a PhD from a great [86:08] school therefore I can pick the stocks [86:10] because I'm a smart person and that [86:12] level of overconfidence is their undoing [86:14] can success I think your book the one of [86:16] the key things that stayed with me and I [86:18] didn't need to recap myself on was the [86:19] stories you told about people [86:22] that accurately predicted what was going [86:25] to happen in the stock market against [86:26] all conventional wisdom they all from [86:29] what I recall they went on to lose their [86:30] money eventually anyway a lot of them [86:32] yeah yeah what is that story you told in [86:33] your book there's a story about a guy [86:34] named Jesse Livermore who was back in [86:36] the 1920s he was the most successful [86:38] investor in the world and what's so [86:40] amazing about Jesse Livermore is that I [86:42] think four different occasions in his [86:43] life he became the equivalent of a [86:45] billionaire adjusted for inflation and [86:47] then went bankrupt four separate times [86:49] in his life so he was the person who was [86:51] like better at anyone in the world at [86:54] making money and had no skill whatsoever [86:56] at keeping money and that's someone who [86:59] like even when he became at one point he [87:01] was the richest man in the world and [87:03] rather than saying I have enough it's [87:05] enough he have said let's cap te bigger [87:07] bets let's swing even harder next time [87:09] it goes never enough and he eventually [87:12] the last time he went broke he [87:13] eventually ended up killing himself it's [87:15] the most amazing like just fascinating [87:17] life that you can imagine of someone who [87:19] is so good at making money but never [87:23] knew when to stop and it is actually the [87:25] more money he made the more risk he [87:26] wanted to take so it was always like his [87:29] I I think his outcome was always [87:32] predestined because there was never [87:34] going to be a moment like the Richer he [87:35] be the more successful he became the [87:37] higher the odds that he was going to [87:40] fail and I think there's some version of [87:43] that for a lot of people because it [87:44] because their success increases their [87:47] confidence more than their ability and [87:49] they don't even know that that's a [87:50] problem that you can't self diagnose [87:52] like if you're confident you think it's [87:53] earned and you think it's real and and [87:56] then because you're successful a lot of [87:58] people who when you were poorer or less [88:00] successful they would tell you you're [88:02] being an idiot you're wrong you're not [88:04] right about this but when you're rich [88:06] maybe because you employ them or because [88:08] they think that you're so smart even [88:10] when you say something stupid they might [88:12] go yeah maybe it's right go for it and [88:15] therefore you don't have people who are [88:16] telling you how overconfident you are [88:18] that again it comes down to humility [88:20] doesn't it a lot of it yeah and like I [88:22] think that's that's that's so much of it [88:24] and like and I think you have to go out [88:25] of your way sometimes for that humility [88:27] that when you have some level of success [88:29] in your life whatever that level is just [88:31] always remind yourself I think I [88:33] remember there was a quote that I think [88:34] it was um Roman Warriors that when they [88:37] would come home from a battle that they [88:38] won and they were in like the Parade of [88:42] you know like we won the battle and [88:43] we're going to go in the parade that [88:45] like we're we're the victors were so [88:46] great that they would have someone by [88:48] their side whispering in their ear [88:51] something something along the lines of [88:53] you're not that great [88:54] because they're in this parade where [88:55] they're glorious and like Victorious but [88:58] they need to someone to bring them back [88:59] down to earth and be like hey you're [89:01] just a you're just a dude you're just a [89:03] guy you're not that special you're very [89:05] fallible like make the like tame it down [89:08] they would actually hire people to do [89:09] that for them and I think if you look at [89:11] a lot of like the great entrepreneurs a [89:13] lot of the great investors they will [89:15] have some sort of partner with that [89:18] Charlie Munger is that to Warren Buffett [89:20] like when Warren Buffett comes up with [89:22] an idea a big part of Charlie munger's [89:23] job is to tell him when he's being an [89:24] idiot and to have someone like Warren [89:26] Buffett who will trust a person like [89:28] that and to have someone like Munger who [89:29] is willing to do something like that is [89:32] so critical just a quick Interruption [89:34] for a brand that is very close to us 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inflat entertainment system [90:21] it's the Personal Touch the experts that [90:24] make you feel relaxed and at home in the [90:26] sky and here's the thing you've got [90:27] until the 13th of November so don't sit [90:30] on it head over to ba.com to find your [90:32] deal now quick one I discovered a [90:34] product which has changed my life called [90:36] ate sleep this product at sleep which [90:38] are a sponsor of this podcast has been a [90:40] revelation in my life because the eight [90:42] sleep pod cover which is basically a [90:44] fitted sheet that goes over your [90:45] mattress controls the temperature of [90:48] your bed throughout the night and it [90:49] follows Nature's natural Rhythm it [90:51] starts cool gets colder while you go [90:54] into different phases of sleep and then [90:55] heats up slightly as you wake up in the [90:57] morning which is effectively guiding you [90:59] to have a deeper more restorative sleep [91:02] I genuinely think of all the things that [91:04] we would include in health and fitness I [91:05] think sleep now is the the most [91:08] important factor the thing that I'm [91:10] thinking about most often every single [91:13] day when I wake up in the morning the [91:15] first thing I do is I check my sleep and [91:16] I use that information to determine how [91:18] to proceed in that day how hard to work [91:21] out how many meetings to have what I [91:22] need to cancel what time I need to get [91:24] to bed so to celebrate them being a new [91:26] podcast sponsor I always want to get a [91:28] discount for you guys and I've got one [91:30] go to 8sleep.com which is EIG ghts [91:34] sleep.com [91:36] slst and if you do that you'll save [91:39] $150 on the Pod cover that I have on my [91:42] bed the one I'm talking about grab your [91:44] pod cover send me a DM and let me know [91:46] how you get on confidence which comes [91:50] from success often really does create [91:52] blind spots and that's something I think [91:53] about so much like how do I stay aware [91:57] of those blind spots in my life that you [92:00] know the success I've had in various [92:01] areas has undeniably created and [92:04] honestly a lot of I just go just save [92:05] loads of money Steve because the day [92:07] you're wrong you don't want to go broke [92:09] I also think about that like whenever [92:11] the curtain comes down on my career I [92:12] want to make sure that I can say like [92:14] hey thank you for for for letting me [92:18] have this I'm so grateful for it but I [92:20] I've saved enough that like I'm ready to [92:21] pass a baton to someone else and that's [92:24] a form of humility too there's a quote [92:26] from Denzel Washington where he's [92:27] talking to Will Smith After Will Smith [92:29] slapped Chris Rock remember that whole [92:31] debacle after that show Denzel [92:33] Washington comes up to Will Smith and he [92:34] says will when you're at your highest [92:36] moment in your career that's when the [92:38] devil's going to get you and it's like [92:41] when when when you when your career is [92:42] so high and you're so famous you think [92:44] so highly of yourself that you can do [92:45] anything that's when you're going to get [92:47] yourself into [92:48] trouble what a powerful quote and I [92:51] think just paying attention to that [92:52] that's the natural humility that goes [92:54] into it and it's not false humility it's [92:56] not like oh I you know false humility is [92:58] like I I didn't do any of this I just [93:00] got lucky that's all false humility I [93:02] think real humility is like I built this [93:04] through hard work and I made some good [93:06] decisions but I'm just I'm just a guy [93:08] I'm as fallible as anybody else I think [93:11] that's it's that's not just important I [93:12] think that's critical to any amount of [93:14] sustainable success you taught me that [93:16] the price you pay to be wealthy is the [93:20] volatility you have to incur along the [93:23] way kind of how I think about it in my [93:24] head that's the cost of admission to [93:26] being to being wealthy and to to be to [93:28] any level of success is putting up with [93:30] an enduring unknowns and volatility and [93:34] Booms and busts and then other [ __ ] [93:36] that you put up with in the investing [93:37] market and in your career and in your [93:39] relationships there's always a cost for [93:42] anything good in life there's a cost [93:44] that you have to pay like of course like [93:46] nothing's free like that but most of the [93:48] costs that you pay are not they don't [93:50] have a price tag that you can just [93:51] measure very cleanly like the cost of [93:54] doing well at investing is putting up [93:55] with volatility the cost of a successful [93:57] career might be long hours where you [93:59] were pulled away from your family the [94:01] cost of a relationship is like always [94:03] needing to sacrifice and compromise for [94:06] the other person nothing is ever free [94:08] and so much of the success in life is [94:10] just identifying what the cost is and [94:12] being willing to pay it because for all [94:14] of those things I just laid out [94:15] investing career relationships the cost [94:18] of admission is worth it putting up with [94:20] the volatility is worth it over time [94:23] because if you can put put up with the [94:24] stock market falling 30% if you could [94:26] just say ah it's not that big a deal I'm [94:27] just going to hold tight 10 years from [94:29] now the cost is well worth doing that be [94:31] rich if you can put up with the [94:33] compromise that takes to have a [94:34] successful relationship by and large [94:36] that's going to be a cost that's worth [94:38] paying because you know like so much of [94:40] what matters in life is just the [94:42] relationships that you have and once you [94:44] identify the cost of that relationship [94:46] you're like oh I'll pay that cost all [94:47] day long so worth it this requires you [94:49] to be cognizant of time Horizons and [94:51] your own time Horizons which is [94:52] something you talk a lot about in [94:54] chapter 16 of the psychology of money [94:56] why is it important for us to know our [94:58] time Horizons and what do you mean by [95:00] time Horizon it's the the amount of time [95:02] between now and whatever your goal is [95:05] which is very different for everybody [95:06] not just by your age but like if you [95:08] want to retire early or whatever would [95:09] be like everyone's going to have a [95:10] slightly different time Horizon what's [95:12] yours mine I mean I you would break it [95:14] up into different chunks like I want to [95:16] get to a point or maybe I'm nearing a [95:18] point in my career where I'm just doing [95:21] things because I enjoy them there's [95:24] really no Financial incentive to what [95:25] I'm doing that's one time Horizon [95:28] another is like okay once my kids start [95:31] getting older I I want to make sure that [95:32] like I'm always there for them when they [95:34] need me teenage years are so difficult [95:36] for people like I'm always 24/7 I'll be [95:39] there for you which means I'm going to [95:40] have to pull back there's going to be a [95:41] point where I just say look I've [95:43] accomplished what I want to with writing [95:45] and I want to be able to move on to [95:47] something else and there's going to be a [95:48] point where I say I really don't want to [95:49] work that much anymore I just want to [95:50] move on and maybe I need to take care of [95:52] my parents would it be so like there's [95:53] multip multile different time Horizons [95:54] at different goals of your life is [95:56] buying a house a good or bad financial [95:58] decision I'll tell you my own experience [96:00] which was in my 20s and early 30s my [96:03] wife and I lived in like seven different [96:05] cities and there was nothing better for [96:07] us some of those were just like let's [96:09] try this new city for fun some of it was [96:11] moving for work we moved for her school [96:14] and our ability to just get up and go [96:15] hand the keys back to the landlord [96:17] nothing was more valuable than that once [96:19] we had our son our first kid then very [96:22] quickly nothing became more valuable to [96:24] me than having an established secure [96:27] home base that nobody could take away [96:29] from me that was The Cure and also like [96:32] kids are loud and they scream and I [96:33] didn't want Neighbors in an apartment [96:35] building that I was going to have to [96:36] like try to keep my kid quiet from so I [96:38] was I want my own house that's mine and [96:40] it's just a standalone house my kid can [96:42] scream as loud as he wants not bothering [96:44] anybody else that became important to me [96:46] like instantly so it's Le I think people [96:48] get caught up when they're like well the [96:50] housing market returns 4 and a half% per [96:52] year that's it's like with the [96:54] spreadsheets like just do what's going [96:56] to work for you I know I know RIT Siti [96:59] has a lot of thoughts about this on [97:01] renting versus buying and I think one [97:03] one of like the differences between [97:05] remit and myself is I have two young [97:08] kids and so like that that if I didn't [97:10] have kids I think I would be like rent [97:12] rent forever really and try and try [97:14] different cities move all move all [97:15] around what could be better than that [97:17] but when you have kids what's more [97:19] important to me is stability I want my [97:21] kids to go to a stable School know their [97:23] neighbors have friends that they can be [97:24] friends with for years that's important [97:26] if we just think about investing then in [97:28] terms of is buying a house a good [97:30] Financial investment my brother who [97:31] works in my company and he's the one [97:33] that introduced me to your book many [97:34] many years ago said to me something [97:36] along the lines of Steve don't buy [97:40] houses to make money because you have [97:42] the ability to play a different set of [97:44] games that very few people can play yeah [97:47] and what I mean by that is he kind of [97:48] explained it to me goes listen everyone [97:50] can buy a house so the returns there [97:52] aren't going to be huge go find a game [97:54] that like only you can play you'll get [97:56] bigger returns if you're buying a house [97:58] because you think it's going to be a [97:58] good Financial investment stop like even [98:01] if it turns out in hindsight that it was [98:03] it doesn't matter I think these are just [98:05] purely lifestyle decisions and I think [98:07] so many people get screwed up when [98:09] they're in a spot in their life where [98:10] they should be renting because they need [98:12] to be mobile they need to move around to [98:13] a new job new career new school whatever [98:15] it is but they end up buying because [98:17] they think they're going to make money [98:18] doing it and that's like that's the [98:20] problem so I own a house and if I ended [98:22] up losing money on it I I I I don't [98:24] think I'd care that that's not why I'm [98:26] owning it I'm owning it just cuz I want [98:27] the stability for my family I've just [98:29] made an offer on my first ever house and [98:30] I cuz I played I played other money [98:32] games for the last decade of My Life um [98:35] and now I have a partner and we've been [98:36] together many years and we're both like [98:38] 31 years old and we're getting into that [98:40] position now you know Y and my brother [98:42] explained to me he goes listen this is a [98:45] bad financial decision but it's a good [98:49] emotional social life decision and you [98:51] need to know how to separate the two [98:53] don't mark this down as a way that [98:54] you're trying to make money like you [98:56] might make money in 20 years time if you [98:58] just like if you're still living there [98:59] look at it as you know you need [99:01] somewhere to live and he must have got [99:02] that from you when I when I when we [99:04] bought our last house which was after I [99:05] wrote this book so this is a different [99:07] experience um I thought at the time and [99:10] still think today I I probably paid a [99:11] little bit too much I mean I paid the [99:12] market rate but if you said like oh did [99:14] you get a good deal I say no no not [99:16] didn't bother me in the slightest that's [99:17] not what I was doing it for it would I [99:19] mean it would be like if you ask like if [99:22] someone is deciding whether or not to [99:24] have kids and they think about the cost [99:26] of kids like forget of course you're [99:28] going to dump hundreds of thousands or [99:31] millions of dollars into your kids and [99:32] it's G it's like if if money is coming [99:35] into the equation like stop right there [99:37] this is it should not do it you're doing [99:38] it for very different reasons this is [99:40] not an investment people people buy [99:42] houses because they think that they're [99:43] making loads of money from because there [99:44] have been periods in time in which [99:45] people have made loads of money [99:46] historically like that's the anomaly [99:48] historically in the US and the UK [99:50] housing prices adjust over inflation go [99:52] nowhere it's just been the last 20 or 30 [99:55] years that there's this very brief [99:56] window of time that owning a house was a [99:59] great investment Robert Schiller won the [100:01] Nobel Prize about a decade ago for his [100:03] work in showing that over the last 150 [100:06] years in the United States adjusted for [100:08] inflation most home prices have been [100:10] flat as a pancake it's just the last 20 [100:12] years that have inflated people's [100:14] expectations of what a house can [100:16] do statistically there's going to be at [100:18] least one person listening to this that [100:21] has made an offer as we speak for a [100:23] house under the assumption that it's [100:25] going to help them stack [100:29] wealth if they were purely doing it for [100:31] those reasons what would you tell them [100:33] to do instead if that's purely the [100:35] reason run for run for your life don't [100:37] do it particularly I mean it it used to [100:40] be and maybe it still is like this in [100:41] many cities in America in the UK but it [100:44] used to be that rentals were almost [100:46] without exception shitty houses there [100:49] were no good rentals a big change at [100:51] least in America in the last 20 years is [100:52] that most cities have tons and tons of [100:55] luxury apartments to live in and that [100:56] are great places to live and they're in [100:59] the city centers and they got beautiful [101:00] granite countertops and they're great [101:02] places to live don't fall for the idea [101:04] that you can't live well if you're [101:06] renting I think that's that's that's the [101:08] problem and realize that if you're doing [101:10] it for financial reasons you're probably [101:12] about to borrow a shitload of money for [101:15] an investment that historically has been [101:17] a very bad investment like if you put it [101:20] in those terms like what are we doing [101:22] here man going to borrow hundreds of [101:24] thousands of dollars for an investment [101:27] that historically has been a loss that's [101:29] what you're doing here does you feel [101:31] good about that that's what I'd say to [101:33] that person God [101:35] speed I I would love to be in the room [101:37] somewhere where that person has just [101:39] looked at their partner after persuading [101:42] them to make that offer because it was [101:43] going to make them Rich sorry guys the [101:45] um this new [101:48] book same as ever essentially it's 23 [101:52] short stories about things that never [101:53] change in the world y well there's a [101:55] couple of really interesting things that [101:56] I pulled out one of them again which [101:58] really hit me in the face was this idea [102:00] that the best story wins I know this I [102:03] know this intuitively I talk about it on [102:04] stage but I don't think people [102:06] understand the power of the best story [102:09] wins because when you think about [102:10] entrepreneurship or investing or [102:11] pitching or sales what most people do is [102:14] they lead out with facts stats and [102:17] figures yeah and even one of the things [102:19] I've noticed about you from our [102:20] conversation now is you have a [102:21] remarkable ability to tell stor thank [102:23] you and there's a huge power in that [102:26] prove to me that the best story wins I [102:30] mean it's it's always the case that it's [102:31] not the right answer or the best answer [102:34] or the mathematically accurate answer [102:36] it's just whoever gets people to nod [102:37] their heads in the right direction [102:38] that's who's going to win over time some [102:40] of the examples of this that I Love Ken [102:42] Burns one of the most famous uh [102:44] documentary filmmakers of all time most [102:47] of what is are in his [102:49] documentaries is is information that [102:51] people already know he'll make a [102:52] documentary about Civil War World War II [102:54] Vietnam whatever it would be there's not [102:56] you're not learn necessarily learning [102:58] something new in there but he is [103:00] massively successful massively popular [103:04] because he's probably the greatest [103:05] Storyteller of our time so even when [103:07] you're taking information that people [103:08] already know if you can spin a good [103:10] story about it you get people lining up [103:13] and they will knock your door down to [103:15] listen to you one other example of this [103:17] are people who tell comedy if you're a [103:20] good comedian like that's all just [103:22] storytelling and a lot of what a good [103:23] comedian does is takes something that's [103:25] very obvious and simple but you can make [103:29] you can tell a good story about it you [103:30] can make people laugh and all of a [103:31] sudden you get their attention and [103:32] they'll remember it you said in the book [103:34] not the best idea or the right idea or [103:35] the most rational idea just whoever [103:37] tells a story that catches people's [103:39] attention I think there are dangerous [103:41] stories which is when people want to is [103:43] when people tell you what you want to [103:44] hear oh I got a dangerous story The [103:46] vaccine gives you autism I think I think [103:49] it's a story that people wanted to hear [103:50] some people wanted to hear that and if [103:52] you tell people what they want to hear [103:53] you can be wrong forever and people [103:56] won't care because you tell them what [103:57] they want to hear T shrot who's a [103:59] neuroscientist sat here and she told me [104:00] a story of Donald Trump stood on the [104:02] debate stage and they panned over to Dr [104:05] Tucker Carson I believe he's called and [104:06] asked him about the vaccine and he [104:08] basically gave stats facts and figures [104:10] He said That vaccine doesn't give kids [104:11] autism and then they like pan over to [104:13] Donald Trump and Donald Trump tells this [104:16] elaborate story about a friend of his [104:18] one person one friend of his clearly [104:21] doesn't exist one friend of his and he [104:23] describes the needle like this he goes [104:26] this huge needle yeah and he so vivid [104:29] Vivid personal and emotional yep and you [104:32] get people nodding their heads to that [104:33] and and and capturing their attention [104:35] tally said I'm a neuroscientist I knew [104:36] it was wrong however there was something [104:39] about hearing it that even as a [104:40] neuroscientist I look to my daughter and [104:42] go [ __ ] I think we've always been [104:44] storytellers and that's what's really [104:46] set humans apart that's the whole idea [104:48] from youval no Harari is that like what [104:49] sets humans apart is our ability to tell [104:51] and remember stories and it's made it so [104:54] it's just a tool to simplify facts in [104:57] the world like most people the other [104:58] thing is powerful about stories is that [105:00] you remember them you think about in [105:02] school when you had a math test and the [105:04] teacher just said memorize this formula [105:07] to regurgitate it on the test literally [105:09] 5 minutes after the test is done you [105:10] forget it you have no idea what it was [105:12] but if you remembered a good story even [105:14] that you were told when you were two [105:15] years old you remember it for the rest [105:17] of your life so it's just a tool for [105:20] getting people to remember how the world [105:21] works and they be so persuasive and so [105:25] good at eliminating the uncertainty that [105:28] grates on all of us that people will [105:30] listen to and believe things even when [105:32] they're just obviously flagrantly not [105:34] true if it's what they want to hear [105:36] people talk about um when we're talking [105:39] about investing but generally life [105:40] people talk about compounding interest [105:42] and we all know the I think a lot of [105:43] people should know the power of [105:44] compounding interest now but we rarely [105:47] think about how compounding interest can [105:49] negatively slowly impact our lives and [105:52] in your chapter about tiny and [105:54] magnificent you explore that and again [105:56] this hit me like a truck in the face [105:58] because I I think I spend my time now [106:00] thinking about how getting things to [106:02] compound in my fa favor will change my [106:04] life but I don't spend a huge amount of [106:05] time thinking about how things are [106:06] compounding against me right now yeah [106:08] what what's really true is that most [106:10] good news happens slowly and most bad [106:12] news happens very fast so bad news is [106:15] like Co literally happens overnight boom [106:17] you got a you got a virus it's going to [106:18] kill millions of people shut down the [106:20] economy happens literally overnight 911 [106:22] Happ happens start to finish it's like [106:24] 30 minutes like boom just happens [106:25] immediately good news is usually slow [106:28] compounding over time so I use the [106:30] example of the book of like the [106:31] Improvement in heart disease mortality [106:34] over the last 70 years is Bonkers we've [106:36] made so much progress and saved [106:39] literally tens of millions of lives in [106:41] the fact that we've gotten better at [106:43] treating heart disease and but nobody [106:45] talks about it it's like it most people [106:48] are aren't even aware that it's happened [106:49] because if you look at what happened it [106:51] was the mortality improved it got better [106:53] by about 2% per year now if you compound [106:55] 2% per year for 70 years it's off the [106:58] charts we're like living in such a [107:00] better world now than we were 70 years [107:01] ago but in any given year you didn't [107:03] even notice it you're never going to see [107:05] a news headline like breaking news heart [107:07] disease mortality improves by 1.4% [107:09] that's not a headline like all the [107:11] headlines are bad news because bad news [107:13] happens fast so once you realize that [107:15] then it's like most of the news is going [107:18] to skew negative not because there's [107:20] some producer who's trying to toy with [107:21] your brain it's just because what is [107:24] obviously happening today tends to be [107:26] the bad news where the good news is just [107:28] very slowly compounding over [107:31] time that can go in the other direction [107:33] of like bad news that compounds over [107:35] time I think about our health smoking [107:37] Health like that's like in like one [107:39] cigarette is not going to do anything [107:41] bad for you but one cigarette per day [107:43] for 30 years is catastrophic and so [107:46] that's that's really what it is like [107:47] same with like getting one bad night [107:48] sleep not that big a deal but if you're [107:50] sleeping 6 hours a night every night for [107:53] years on end you're going to reduce your [107:54] life expectancy by a tremendous amount [107:56] this idea of compounding interest and [107:58] compounding returns and how important it [108:00] is I've spent so long trying to explain [108:02] to people that compounding interest and [108:04] compounding returns this very hard thing [108:06] to think about is so important I imagine [108:09] you have two what is your go-to way of [108:11] explaining to like your eight-year-old [108:13] kid or someone else the power of [108:15] compounding we were actually going to [108:16] get like a bowl of rice here and I was [108:17] going to do some experiments the rice is [108:19] the best the the rice board experiment [108:20] if you if people aren't familiar with it [108:22] it's this story that's probably not true [108:24] that back 500 years ago someone uh you [108:27] know told the king they said hey here's [108:29] a here's a chess board I'm going to put [108:31] one grain of rice on the [108:33] first Square two on the second Square [108:36] four on the third and then let's do that [108:38] and by the end of the chessboard that's [108:41] like it's like more rice than exists in [108:43] the entire world because like if you [108:44] double something again and again and [108:46] again it's just completely [108:47] counterintuitive how big it can grow the [108:49] one way that I I I had a friend of mine [108:51] Michael batnick explained this to me [108:52] years ago I think he wrote this in a [108:54] blog post he said if I ask you what is 8 [108:57] plus 8 plus 8 plus 8 you can do that in [108:59] your head like it's it's not it's not [109:01] that hard but if I say what is 8 time 8 [109:03] time 8 time 8 like forget about it even [109:05] if you are really mathematically [109:07] inclined there's no way you can like [109:09] very few people could figure that out in [109:10] their head so our minds are just not [109:13] good at exponential thinking that's just [109:15] not it's it's just not something that [109:16] we're really geared towards doing like 8 [109:18] plus 8 plus 8 it's like so simple linear [109:20] thinking so simple exponential thinking [109:22] not intuitive in the slightest and [109:24] because it's not intuitive it's so [109:25] common to underestimate what smoking is [109:28] going to do to you that compounds over [109:30] time what investing is capable of doing [109:32] to your wealth because it's so [109:34] counterintuitive that 99% of Warren [109:36] Buffett's net worth came after he was 60 [109:38] years old not intuitive at all and so [109:41] since exponential thinking is not [109:43] intuitive both on the positive and the [109:44] negative side we go through life [109:47] underestimating what's going to happen [109:49] to us in good things and bad things it's [109:50] like a religion we have to adopt I think [109:52] I think that's a great way it's it's [109:53] like a mathematical religion because [109:56] just like a lot of religion it's like [109:57] it's not intuitive and it almost takes [109:58] like a leap of faith to be like I know [110:00] it's seems crazy but this is this is [110:02] what I believe I think there's a sense [110:04] of that to compounding where like it's [110:06] just math you can just put the numbers [110:07] in a spreadsheet and they'll tell you [110:08] what it is but since it's not intuitive [110:11] there's almost like a religious aspect [110:12] that you need to believe how powerful it [110:14] can be over time two of the chapters in [110:16] your book same is ever speak to the [110:17] importance of discomfort one of the [110:20] chapters is called when the magic [110:21] happens and you say in that chapter [110:22] stress pain discomfort shock and disgust [110:24] for all its tragic [110:26] downsides it's also when the magic [110:29] happens and then the other chapter where [110:31] you kind of speak to this is It's [110:32] supposed to be hard most things worth [110:34] pursuing charge their fee in the form of [110:36] stress uncertainty dealing with quirky [110:39] people bureaucracy other people's [110:41] conflicting incentives hassle nonsense [110:43] long hours and constant doubt that's the [110:45] overhead cost of getting ahead what's [110:47] interesting is I never tied those two [110:48] chapters together but you're right [110:49] they're they're almost the exact same [110:51] idea that for the the whole economy for [110:53] the whole world when the biggest [110:54] improvements in society takes place is [110:56] when there's some sort of disaster like [110:58] for all of its obvious downside and [111:01] death and destruction nothing has been [111:03] more technologically Progressive for the [111:05] world than World War II the number of [111:07] inventions that came out of World War II [111:09] from atomic energy to Jets and like go [111:12] on down the list penicillin all of these [111:14] lists for things that you and I are [111:16] taking advantage of today happened not [111:18] in spite of but because of World War II [111:20] because there was this period where [111:21] everyone in the world came together and [111:23] they're like holy [ __ ] we got a big [111:24] problem to figure out let's put our [111:26] heads together and figure this out right [111:27] now but that's also on a personal level [111:29] on a personal level it happens as well [111:30] too like there there's there's there's a [111:32] book written many years ago called the [111:34] upside of down that's I thought that [111:36] just a brilliant title like the like the [111:37] upside of being down and it happens a [111:40] lot that when you have maybe it's a job [111:41] layoff or a breakup or a medical [111:43] emergency whatever it can be that it [111:45] changes you for the good and it's hard [111:48] it's always impossible to see that [111:49] silver lining in the moment you don't [111:51] ever imagine there's going be a silver [111:53] lining in that moment but when you look [111:55] back in hindsight it will be I saw this [111:57] recent example of this that really [111:58] knocked me on my ass it was Steven coar [112:01] who I might be getting these details [112:02] wrong but I think when he was uh a young [112:05] child his father and brother died [112:08] tragically and he said at one point that [112:12] uh I don't want to put words in his [112:13] mouth but he said something along the [112:14] lines of like he is grateful for that [112:17] and he was asked like what do you mean [112:18] you're grateful for that and he said [112:19] look of course I wish it never happened [112:22] but it allowed him to understand the [112:26] emotions of other people and get closer [112:27] to other people who had also experience [112:29] something like that and so even in like [112:31] the deepest darkest moment of his life [112:34] that he says he of course he wishes it [112:35] didn't happen it taught him something [112:36] about Humanity that he's Greatful for [112:38] today that's an extreme example but I [112:41] think for a lot of people being laid off [112:43] from a job in the moment is going to be [112:45] the hardest thing they've ever dealt [112:46] with and in hindsight it's going to be [112:48] one of the best things that ever [112:49] happened to their career a breakup might [112:51] be the hardest thing you've ever been [112:52] through and in hindsight it might be the [112:54] best thing that's ever happened to you [112:56] so I that's always like that's when the [112:58] magic happens is when things get really [112:59] tough It's just always impossible to see [113:01] that when you're going through it a lot [113:03] of people would have clicked on to this [113:04] conversation and if they've gotten to [113:05] the end of the conversation well done to [113:07] them what conclusion can we offer them [113:10] based on everything we've talked about [113:11] as it specifically relates to wealth [113:14] creation and money first I think for [113:16] both of these books we're almost ending [113:18] exactly where we started which is like I [113:20] hope they get you to think about your [113:22] life in different way both of these [113:24] books and the Publishers hated this [113:26] there's no advice in the books never do [113:28] I say and therefore you should do this [113:31] and the publisher wants you to do that [113:32] and I said no no no because I don't know [113:34] you I don't know the person reading this [113:35] book who am I to say what you should do [113:37] with your own life I don't even know to [113:38] do with my own life but I hope it gets [113:40] you thinking about what you want and who [113:43] you are and what you are capable of what [113:46] you're not capable of if it gets you [113:48] thinking about your life then I think [113:50] I've been successful doing this rather [113:52] other than trying to assume that I can [113:53] give you specific advice about what to [113:55] do Morgan we have a closing tradition on [113:58] this podcast where the last guest leaves [113:59] a question for the next guest not [114:00] knowing who they're going to be leaving [114:01] it for and the question that's been left [114:03] for you [114:05] is what is your biggest regret in life [114:08] and how has that experience changed [114:12] you I think I've uh always been prone to [114:17] mild depression not not significant but [114:20] mild depression and anxiety and I wish I [114:23] could go back to different periods of my [114:25] life in a time machine and just say it's [114:28] going to be okay it's not going to be [114:30] easy it's not going to be perfect but [114:32] it's gonna it's it's going to be fine [114:34] and I I I look back not with regret but [114:38] how much time have I wasted worrying [114:39] about things that never happened and [114:42] were almost certainly never going to [114:43] happen a tremendous amount and even if I [114:47] recognize that today I know I'm going to [114:49] worry about something tonight and [114:51] tomorrow and next week about something I [114:52] really shouldn't be worrying about I [114:54] don't know if I regret it because I [114:55] think having a sense of worry has kept [114:57] me safe A lot of times it's kept me out [114:59] of trouble in in a lot of things but I [115:01] do look back at the course of my life [115:03] and think man like I could have been [115:05] happier than I was if I had accepted a [115:09] certain level of just telling myself [115:10] it's going to be [115:12] okay well you're not going to have to [115:13] worry about your book because it's [115:15] superb thank you genuinely I I you know [115:18] hope my audience trust me um but I I [115:20] would really implore them to get both [115:22] books I mean the psychology of money I [115:23] think is the best book on money ever [115:24] written it's pretty much also the only [115:26] book I've ever read on money and then [115:28] same as ever is [115:30] just it's everything it's advice on [115:33] money life relationships everything that [115:35] matters because there are a set of [115:36] enduring principles that speak to the [115:39] fundamentals of life in a way that is [115:41] completely enduring you have a wonderful [115:42] ability to write enduring things and you [115:44] tell wonderful stories like you say I [115:46] actually didn't even notice that you [115:47] didn't give me advice when you said that [115:48] You' not given me advice any and I never [115:50] will to anybody bullshitting but you [115:51] know think about it you didn't I I [115:53] garnered my advice from the stories you [115:55] told and the evidence you provided [115:57] Morgan thank you so much I'm so glad we' [115:58] managed to have this conversation and [115:59] it's been a huge honor and pleasure um [116:02] to meet you thank you as well because I [116:04] can't imagine how many millions of [116:05] pounds you've Saved Me by writing this [116:06] book genuinely it's such an honor to do [116:09] this with you Stephen this been a lot of [116:10] fun thank [116:13] you as you'll know this podcast is [116:15] sponsored by hu and we're going into [116:17] that last quarter of the year it's [116:18] getting a little bit colder back into [116:20] our routines back into our work rhythms [116:22] and it's in those moments that I need to [116:25] focus most on my diet as I get back into [116:27] the swing of work I need to get back [116:28] into a routine as it relates to my diet [116:30] and that's really where hu's RTD they're [116:32] ready to drink range comes in handy in a [116:34] bottle you have a nutritionally complete [116:37] meal that you can consume in a minute so [116:39] this is a real Lifesaver in terms of my [116:40] health it is my Ally and my friend and [116:44] my companion on my busiest days and it [116:46] means that even when I'm pursuing all of [116:47] my professional goals my health goals [116:49] can be pursued at the same time there's [116:51] a link in the description below if [116:52] you've never tried heels rtds this is [116:54] the time if you're falling off of the [116:55] wagon this is the sign you needed to get [116:57] back on there's a link below in the [116:58] description order yourself a pack stay [117:00] healthy throughout this busy period do [117:03] you need a podcast to listen to next [117:05] we've discovered that people who liked [117:07] this episode also tend to absolutely [117:09] love another recent episode we've done [117:11] so I've linked that episode in the [117:13] description below I know you'll enjoy it [117:19] [Music] [117:22] a