SpaceX Stock Jumps 24% in Debut as Value Hits $2.27 Trillion

SpaceX上市首日大涨24% 市值达2.27万亿美元 SpaceX的成功上市验证了其通过超额构建火箭运力来资助Starlink等衍生业务的战略。 主持人报道了SpaceX具有历史意义的IPO首日情况，该股较135美元的发行价上涨约24%，市值达到2.27万亿至2.28万亿美元的庞大规模。他们回顾了Gwynne Shotwell在Nasdaq的开市致辞、她的成就，以及促成Starlink诞生的“剩余能力”运营理念。本期节目还探讨了Elon Musk在2004年参议院听证会上对开放太空竞争的呼吁、Founders Fund传奇般的早期风投押注、散户股票配额的大幅削减，以及一场轻松的中午股价预测比赛。 SpaceX 迎来历史性 IPO，发行定价为每股 135 美元，开盘报 150 美元并在早盘冲破 172 美元，市值达到约 2.27 万亿至 2.28 万亿美元。 (0:00) 总裁 Gwynne Shotwell 为纳斯达克敲钟开市，当天清晨 SpaceX 同时发射了一枚搭载 Starlink 卫星的猎鹰 9 号火箭；全公司约 22,000 名员工中有半数以上在 IPO 开盘时自购了近 10 亿美元股票。 (6:13) SpaceX 凭借“过剩运力”（residual capability）战略超前投入发射能力，成功孵化出庞大的 Starlink 卫星互联网业务，Shotwell 还设定了在 10 年内建立月球定居点与月面制造基地的长远目标。 (9:58) 回顾 2004 年国会听证会，32 岁的 Elon Musk 曾极力倡导航天领域的开放竞争与创造性破坏，最终带领 SpaceX 在 2020 年从美国本土运送宇航员，终结了美国长达 9 年对俄罗斯火箭的依赖。 (16:49)

Reviewing SpaceX's public market debut at a valuation exceeding $2.2 trillion, the TBPN hosts frame the milestone as the validation of Elon Musk's once-dismissed commercial spaceflight thesis and Gwynne Shotwell's strategy of aggressive capacity overbuilding. Public Market Debut and Allocation Scramble (0:00) SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 per share, opened at $150, and traded up to $172 during early morning trading—implying a market capitalization of $2.27 trillion to $2.28 trillion. By midday, the stock leveled off to around $167, reflecting a 24% first-day gain. Host John Coogan observed that while venture capitalists like Bill Gurley historically criticize massive first-day pops as evidence of mispricing by underwriters, a 10% to 30% rise for a multi-trillion-dollar firm indicates that institutional pricing found a healthy equilibrium between demand and valuation. The debut was marked by extreme allocation bottlenecks across both retail and institutional channels. Demand vastly outstripped supply: a reported $1 million private bank order was allocated just $50,000, while show participants and retail investors who ordered dozens of shares received single-share fills. The hosts noted the irony of investors scrambling for small allocations after many analysts and critics had spent years writing off Musk's ventures. Operational Execution and the Residual Capability Model President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, who joined as SpaceX's seventh employee in 2002, was highlighted as the central operational architect behind the company's industrial scale. Shotwell outlined the company's trajectory at the Nasdaq opening, noting its progression from the Falcon 1 reaching orbit in 2008 to achieving 165 successful launches in a single year, deploying Starship, and acquiring xAI to leverage a gigawatt-class compute cluster for exploration and research. Workforce confidence was demonstrated by more than half of SpaceX's 22,000 employees personally purchasing nearly $1 billion worth of stock at the IPO opening. The hosts highlighted Shotwell’s strategic doctrine of 'residual capability'—intentionally manufacturing launch capacity far beyond immediate commercial demand. By creating surplus payload capacity on its Falcon 9 fleet, SpaceX internal costs plummeted, enabling the rapid deployment of the Starlink satellite constellation. This operational surplus effectively turned an internal logistical excess into a highly profitable global internet business, setting a precedent that Coogan noted could eventually extend to point-to-point suborbital passenger transit via Starship. Vindication of the 2004 Senate Hearing Thesis SpaceX's market capitalization stands in sharp contrast to the regulatory and political resistance documented during Elon Musk's 2004 appearance before a U.S. Senate subcommittee. Following the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, when lawmakers like Senator Bill Nelson warned that the U.S. would rely on Russian rockets for years, a 32-year-old Musk—having yet to launch a single successful rocket—protested sole-source government awards to legacy defense contractors. Invoking Joseph Schumpeter’s concept of 'creative destruction,' Musk argued that spaceflight had suffered a multi-decade 'dark age' due to a lack of commercial competition, while ridiculing bureaucratic friction such as $10,000 environmental impact studies on thriving seal populations at launch sites. Two decades later, Musk's competitive model has displaced legacy aerospace incumbents. SpaceX ended the United States' nine-year dependence on Russian Soyuz flights—which had cost NASA up to $90 million per seat—by launching astronauts from American soil in 2020. The company's reusable boosters now carry more than half of the world's space payloads, transforming the once-theoretical commercial paradigm into dominant infrastructure. Asymmetric Venture Stakes and Capital Expansion The IPO also crystallizes historic venture capital windfalls, headlined by Founders Fund's early $20 million investment at a $200 million valuation. The hosts compared the position to SoftBank's $20 million investment in Alibaba that grew to $70 billion, ranking it among the most lucrative wagers in technology history. The episode drew parallels between the sheer stubbornness required in early venture investing and the competitive persistence demonstrated by early backers like Peter Thiel, who famously refused to resign online chess matches even after losing his queen in the opening moves. SpaceX's transition to public markets confirms its shift from a speculative startup to core aerospace and satellite infrastructure. However, the company now faces the operational pressure of satisfying public market scrutiny while pursuing capital-intensive, long-horizon objectives, including Shotwell's target of establishing a lunar manufacturing facility within ten years.

本期节目聚焦SpaceX正式挂牌上市的历史性交易日，探讨了其首日定价表现、联合运营总裁Gwynne Shotwell的战略贡献，以及该公司从早期监管抗争发展至数万亿美元巨头的历程与市场配售狂热。 SpaceX上市首日表现与估值落地 (0:00) SpaceX以每股135美元的发行价正式挂牌上市，开盘报150美元，在节目早段交易中一度冲高至172美元，推升公司整体市值达到约2.27万亿至2.28万亿美元之间。截至美东时间中午，该股稳定在167美元附近，相比IPO定价实现了约24%的涨幅。尽管早盘交易中股价曾短暂回落至158美元，但随后快速反弹。 联合主持人John Coogan分析指出，风险投资家Bill Gurley历来反对上市首日出现翻倍暴涨的异象，因为那通常意味着承销商严重低估了资产价值。但对于SpaceX这样规模达到数万亿美元的超级庞然大物而言，10%至30%区间的平稳涨幅表明市场定价找到了理想平衡点。在节目内部组织的中午收盘预测中，Tyler以31%的涨幅预测（对应176美元）最为接近实际的24%涨幅结果。 肖特韦尔领导力与冗余能力战略 在IPO上市当日早晨，SpaceX按其标志性的节奏发射了一枚搭载Starlink卫星的Falcon 9火箭。总裁兼首席运营官Gwynne Shotwell在纳斯达克敲钟仪式上发表讲话，回顾了公司自Elon Musk于2002年创立以来的24年历程，包括2008年Falcon 1液体燃料火箭发射入轨、2010年Falcon 9升空、承担国际空间站载人任务，以及单年完成165次发射的记录。Shotwell还提及与xAI的战略合并，使整合后的实体坐拥全球最大的吉瓦级算力集群；同时，公司约22,000名员工中超过半数在IPO开盘时出资增持，购股总额近10亿美元。 John Coogan将Shotwell视作现代商业史上最出色的运营高管之一。作为第七号员工，她于2008年升任总裁兼首席运营官，并在同年协助锁定了NASA价值16亿美元的货运合同。节目探讨了Shotwell推行的“冗余能力”（residual capability）战略——即超前于现有市场需求进行过度产能建设。SpaceX通过制造远超商业市场需求的火箭运力，创造了廉价且富余的自身有效载荷空间，从而孵化出极具盈利能力的Starlink卫星互联网业务。这一理念未来还可能延伸至30分钟纽约至东京的点对点亚轨道运输领域。 2004年参议院听证会与航天破局 节目回顾了《华尔街日报》作者Jimmy Soni关于Elon Musk早期国会斗争的报道。2004年哥伦比亚号航天飞机失事后，全美航天陷入焦虑，参议员Bill Nelson等人警告美国可能在数年内被迫依赖俄罗斯火箭。年仅32岁、尚未成功发射过一枚火箭的Musk出席参议院小组听证会，在NASA高层与传统国防承包商巨头面前，抗议NASA不经公开竞争即授予对手2.5亿美元合同的做法。 Musk在听证会上援引经济学家熊彼特的“创造性破坏”理论，痛陈过去的几十年是人类航天的“黑暗时代”，直言航天技术停滞的原因在于缺乏新竞争者和开放竞标，呼吁政府应充当采购客户而非竞争对手。此外，他还戏谑了监管负担，指出公司每次发射需花费1万美元研究对范登堡空军基地海豹的影响，而当地海豹数量每年增长近13%。二十年后，SpaceX打破了美国长达9年、单座花费高达9000万美元依赖俄罗斯联盟号的局面，并于2020年重启本土载人航天，其部分可复用火箭演变为承载全球半数以上载荷的着陆回收舰队。 早期投资回报与散户配售狂热 节目重点提及Founders Fund早期以2000万美元估值对SpaceX进行2000万美元注资的案例。主持人认为，即便经历后续多轮股权稀释，该笔交易依然堪称风投史上最伟大的投资之一，足以比肩软银孙正义向阿里巴巴投资2000万美元最终变现700亿美元的传奇传奇。节目还穿插探讨了Peter Thiel在Chess.com上对弈超过50,000局、在早盘丢后失子却坚决不投降的棋风，借此折射出科技创始人不屈不挠的执拗特质。 上市当天，市场对SpaceX股票的需求呈现严重供不应求的态势。私人银行与散户配售遭遇大幅削减：有客户通过私人银行下单100万美元，最终仅获配5万美元（仅获配二十分之一）；多名节目组员工提交了20股、50股乃至100股的认购意向，最终仅分得1股（被称为“一股奇迹”）。场外甚至一度流传着5000万美元的大额配售额度转让，显示出各类渠道对该股的狂热争夺已经完全压倒了初始供应量。 SpaceX以24%的首日稳健涨幅完成了万亿美元级别的IPO蜕变，然而散户与私人银行订单的大比例缩减揭示出市场流通筹码与庞大需求之间的剧烈落差，其长期走势能否如投资者预期般走向深空仍有待后市检验。

## Background 本期节目由科技播客频道 TBPN 于 2026 年 6 月 23 日发布在 YouTube 平台，属于其浓缩精华栏目《Diet TBPN》。根据官方简介，主持人 John Coogan 与 Jordi Hays 聚焦 SpaceX 正式挂牌上市的历史性时刻，全面解析其首日定价、开盘涨幅以及伴随而来的市场狂热与业界动态。 ## TL;DR 节目围绕 SpaceX 登陆纳斯达克迎来史上最大规模科技 IPO 展开，详细记录了每股 135 美元发行价、盘中涨幅约 24%、市值直逼 2.3 万亿美元的首日稳健表现，以及极为惨烈的散户新股配售热潮。主持人致敬了格温·肖特韦尔带领公司一路打破质疑并整合 xAI 算力网络的非凡履历，并回顾了埃隆·马斯克 2004 年在国会听证会上力推“开放竞争”的破局往事与 Founders Fund 的早期神级注资。节目最后揭晓了团队内部的正午股价竞猜结果，并趣味盘点了彼得·蒂尔网棋翻车、Whoop 睡眠追踪焦虑以及苹果“Siri 绝不做 AI 女友”等科技圈热梗。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场节目充斥着硅谷风投圈特有的快节奏、高信息密度与机智互损，两位主播在专业商业剖析与天马行空的无厘头跑题之间无缝切换。从对万亿航天巨擘开盘的由衷震撼，到调侃“一手奇迹”配售难堪与蒂尔低级棋局失误的捧腹大笑，现场氛围既充满见证历史的狂热，又带有戏谑解构华尔街与科技精英的轻松与辛辣。 ## Bulletin - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=0s) SpaceX 正式挂牌上市，发行定价每股 135 美元，首日盘中稳定在 167 至 172 美元区间（溢价约 24%），对应市值达 2.27 万亿至 2.28 万亿美元，符合健康 IPO 的定价逻辑。 - [06:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=373s) SpaceX 在公开上市首日清晨照常使用猎鹰 9 号执行星链卫星发射任务；目前公司员工约 22,000 人，超半数员工自筹资金认购了近 10 亿美元的追加股票。 - [06:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=373s) 除上一年度完成创纪录的 165 次发射外，SpaceX 宣布合并 xAI，坐拥全球最大的吉瓦级连贯一致性算力网络，完成航天基建与通用人工智能前沿的战略合流。 - [25:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1543s) 二级市场打新配售极度惨烈，私人银行大额认购客户仅获配约 5% 额度，散户普遍遭遇仅分得屈辱“1 股”的挤兑局面，反映出流通盘供求关系的极度失衡。 - [22:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1354s) 彼得·蒂尔旗下的 Founders Fund 曾在 SpaceX 估值仅 2 亿美元时投资 2000 万美元并长线持有，凭借极致耐心成就风险投资史上罕见的史诗级回报。 ## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=0s) SpaceX 上市首日波动温和并录得约 24% 的溢价，表现稳健成熟，印证了巨型市值企业无需依赖暴涨、依靠合理定价与温和首日涨幅的健康 IPO 逻辑。 - [06:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=373s) 格温·肖特韦尔在纳斯达克敲钟致辞中系统回顾了公司 24 年来粉碎外界质疑的历程，上市日清晨照常发射火箭展现了绝对的工程自信。 - [06:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=373s) SpaceX 通过合并收购 xAI 拓宽业务版图，建立吉瓦级高一致性算力底座，将深空探索的物理工程与下一代通用智能算力深度捆绑。 - [09:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=541s) 公司全员展现极强向心力，在 22,000 名员工中有超过 50% 拿出真金白银额外认购近 10 亿美元股票，展现内部对公司长期价值的坚定共识。 - [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=738s) 商业扩张建立在“剩余运力”（Residual Capability）飞轮之上：先超前建设过剩且低成本的发射能力，再借由富余舱位快速低成本组网星链，持续孵化千亿级新业务。 - [13:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=833s) 肖特韦尔在务实经营、维系 NASA 等政府关系方面充当了定海神针，其严谨克制的管理风格与马斯克的舆论形象形成关键互补。 - [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1129s) 年轻马斯克早在 2004 年国会听证会上就直面军工垄断巨头，引用“创造性破坏”力主政府引入市场竞争，最终彻底终结了美国载人航天对俄罗斯的长期依赖。 - [22:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1354s) Founders Fund 早期注资 2000 万美元的成功不仅在于眼光，更在于打破科技机构早早分红变现的常规，凭借长期坚守实现了匹敌孙正义押注阿里巴巴的传奇回报。 - [25:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1543s) 新股配售供需极度失衡，机构大单被大幅砍单至 5%，散户账户更普遍仅分得 1 股，引发了投资圈关于“一手奇迹”的热议与迷因狂欢。 - [30:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1821s) 正午股价揭晓显示盘中价格落在 167 美元附近，相较于极端激进的炒作预期，承销商与市场的实际定价表现出极高的效率与精准度。 - [32:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1943s) 可穿戴量化设备被指陷入古德哈特定律误区：过度纠结 Whoop 等手环的睡眠打分反而加剧精神焦虑，将健康监测工具异化成了破坏睡眠的元凶。 - [33:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=2004s) 苹果高管表态“Siri 绝不做 AI 女友”并抗拒盲目逢迎的情感连接设计，被科技圈戏称为是在公开向全球越狱黑客与提示词工程师下战书。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=0s) SpaceX 历史性 IPO 开盘与主持人的正午预测赌局 节目开场即迎来了载入史册的一天：SpaceX 正式挂牌上市。该股发行定价为每股 135 美元，开盘价冲至 150 美元，随后在直播期间迅速攀升并稳定在 172 美元左右，公司市值对应高达 2.27 万亿至 2.28 万亿美元。主持人 John Coogan 与 Jordi Hays 难掩兴奋，甚至在调出实时报价屏幕时遭遇了画面死循环的“无限反射镜”搞笑意外。尽管市场对这一万亿级庞然大物存在多空分歧，但从首日表现来看，这场 IPO 已经称得上大获成功。正如风险投资家比尔·格利（Bill Gurley）一贯主张的健康 IPO 逻辑，上市首日不需要翻倍的暴涨，对于这种体量的巨无霸，10% 到 30% 区间内的温和涨幅（Pop）恰恰说明定价与分配机制运作得当。 节目组内部还为此设立了一场趣味竞猜：John、Jordi 和制作人 Tyler 在开盘前各自提交了一份保密估算，竞猜中午 12 点整的股价表现。三人的预测维度各有千秋——Jordi 基于整体市值进行估算，Tyler 直接押注每股股价，而 John 则采用涨跌百分比进行预测。胜者将在中午揭晓，并能获得一份神秘大奖。就在大家准备播放 SpaceX 总裁兼首席运营官格温·肖特韦尔（Gwynne Shotwell）在纳斯达克的演讲画面时，Jordi 突然因为看到后台传来的预测内容而笑场，由此引出了一场关于彼此思维方式的即兴插科打诨。 - **发行定价**：每股 135 美元 - **开盘价格**：每股 150 美元 - **盘中即时价**：每股 172 美元（对应市值约 2.27 至 2.28 万亿美元） - **主持人竞猜机制**：Jordi（按市值）、Tyler（按股价）、John（按涨跌幅百分比），统一锁定正午 12:00 结果 --- ### [01:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=96s) 场边插曲与跑题：遛狗人 vs 牙医的“海滩之争” 两人的话题迅速从股市跑偏到了日常抬杠。John 吐槽 Jordi 在做股价预测前连珠炮似地提了 25 个澄清细节的问题，直言他“应该去炒观点梗（Bits）而不是炒股票”。紧接着，John 翻旧账提及此前关于《华尔街日报》报道过的一起海滩通行权纠纷——“遛狗人 vs 牙医”的奇葩站队辩论。当时 John 逼 Jordi 盲选一边，而 Jordi 却以“信息不足”为由拒绝站队，破坏了电视节目的戏剧效果。 Jordi 极其认真地辩解了自己为何难以抉择：他这辈子从未雇过遛狗人，从小到大自己家养狗都是自己遛，因而对该职业没有个人共鸣；而对于牙医，他天生牙齿健康从没长过蛀牙，每次去看牙医对方都只说一句“看起很棒，老板”就放他回家，因此两个职业对他而言“同样无感”。John 随即试图用商业经济学诱导他：“如果是为了搞钱，你是愿意做一个顶级遛狗人，还是做平庸的牙医？”Jordi 坦承自家社区里就有一位整天边听歌边遛狗的邻居，过得快活又挣钱；而牙医这行虽有被私募股权（PE）大规模打包整合（Roll-up）并抬高价格的商业想象力，但他最终依然在 John 的逼问下选了遛狗人。不仅如此，Jordi 还一本正经地脑洞大开：他愿意设立一个特殊目的载体（SPV）出资支持遛狗人，帮遛狗人买下那个跟他起冲突的牙医诊所并将其彻底关闭，把一场公共海滩纠纷升级为纯粹的个人资本复仇。 - **Jordi 的个人经历**：从未雇佣过遛狗人（自己就是遛狗人）；从未长过蛀牙，牙医每次检查只留下一句 "looks good boss" 便放行。 - **关于职业商业模式的争论**：整天散步听歌但现金流极其健康的精英个人遛狗人 vs 借助 PE 资本杠杆大搞并购整合的牙医诊所。 - **最终站队结论**：Jordi 站队遛狗人，条件是通过组建 SPV 筹集资金直接收购对方牙医的诊所并关店，把海滩纠纷做成彻底的“个人恩怨”。 --- ### [06:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=373s) 格温·肖特韦尔纳斯达克敲钟：以发射开启上市日与打脸怀疑者的历史 闹剧过后，节目切入正题。在简短口播网络安全赞助商 CrowdStrike 后，大屏幕转向了纳斯达克上市现场的格温·肖特韦尔，镜头前的制作人 Tyler 还被调侃神似年轻版的金博尔·马斯克（Kimbal Musk）。站在交易大厅里的肖特韦尔发表了激昂的开市致辞，宣布 SpaceX 再次创造历史——就在上市当天的清晨，SpaceX 照常使用猎鹰 9 号（Falcon 9）运载火箭将一批星链（Starlink）卫星送入了近地轨道。肖特韦尔豪迈发问：“世界上有哪家公司会在自己公开上市的当天早晨还打一发火箭上天？唯有 SpaceX 敢这么做。” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: SpaceX打破怀疑与实现里程碑的发展历程 accDescr: 展现从猎鹰1号首入轨到星舰及xAI合并的发展时间线与各阶段被粉碎的质疑 subgraph Early["早期入轨验证 (2008-2010)"] F1["2008年 猎鹰1号第4次飞行<br/>3次失败后首枚私营液体火箭入轨"] F9["2年之后 猎鹰9号入轨<br/>粉碎'无法制造真正大火箭'的质疑"] end subgraph Delivery["空间站与高频常态化"] ISS["载人龙飞船对接国际空间站<br/>打破无法将宇航员送上太空的论调"] Cadence["上一年创下 165 次发射纪录<br/>粉碎无法实现火箭规模量产的怀疑"] end subgraph DeepSpace["深空探索与算力巨擘"] Starship["星舰计划启动并在轨推进<br/>一级助推器成功回收复用"] xAI["合并收购 xAI<br/>拥有全球最大的千兆瓦级一致性算力集群"] end Early --> Delivery --> DeepSpace ``` 肖特韦尔深情回顾了公司 24 年来的奋斗史（埃隆·马斯克于 2002 年创立 SpaceX，最初愿景就是建造运载人类前往火星、月球乃至更远深空的火箭与飞船）。面对多年来外界层出不穷的质疑，她如数家珍般列出了一份反击清单： 1. **“私营公司绝不可能进入轨道”**：2008 年，在猎鹰 1 号（Falcon 1）第三次试飞失利仅仅 6 周后，SpaceX 成功将人类第一枚私营液体燃料火箭送入地球轨道。 2. **“那只是玩具火箭，你们做不出真正的重型火箭”**：两年后，真正具备强大载荷能力的猎鹰 9 号成功入轨。 3. **“你们永远不可能把宇航员送上空间站”**：SpaceX 最终实现了载人龙飞船安全往返国际空间站。 4. **“猎鹰 9 号不可能形成规模量产与高频复用”**：仅在刚刚过去的上一年度，SpaceX 就完成了不可思议的 165 次发射。 5. **“造不出足以登月甚至去火星的超级火箭”**：巨型运载火箭“星舰”（Starship）不仅已经成功试飞，还实现了第一级超级重型助推器的回收与再利用，并计划在今年实现整机入轨和二级飞船的受控回收。 演讲最后，肖特韦尔更抛出一项震撼整合：通过对 xAI 的战略收购与合并，整个集团如今已坐拥全球规模最大、达到吉瓦级（Gigawatt-class）的高一致性超级算力网络，完成了航天科技与通用人工智能前沿的终极合流。 - **公司历史跨度**：创立于 2002 年，至上市时已走过 24 年历程。 - **IPO 当日硬核行动**：早晨直接用猎鹰 9 号执行星链卫星发射任务，用实弹升空庆祝开盘。 - **年度发射纪录**：上一年度总计完成 165 次轨道发射任务。 - **业务版图拓宽**：合并 xAI 之后，坐拥全球最大的吉瓦级连贯一致性计算集群，为火星探索与通用智能提供底层算力底座。 ### [09:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=541s) 肖特韦尔纳斯达克开市致辞：致敬坚守与员工认购 格温·肖特韦尔（Gwynne Shotwell）在发言中强调，SpaceX 的使命是探索宇宙、追寻真理，并向全体验证奇迹的团队表达由衷祝贺。她特别提到，目前公司规模约为 22,000 人，其中超过一半的员工在本次开市中选择自掏腰包认购额外股票，员工认购总额接近 10 亿美元。她感慨道，面对一路以来的各种质疑与冷嘲热讽，团队始终“挺直脊梁”，甚至能做到每天或每周数次完成载入史册的壮举。她号召除当天仍有回收任务的猎鹰号（Falcon）回收团队之外的所有人，在这一里程碑时刻好好庆祝一番，而回收团队稍后也同样值得享受这份荣耀。 - SpaceX 现有员工规模约 22,000 人。 - 超过 50% 的员工参与了额外股票认购，合计总金额近 10 亿美元。 - 肖特韦尔调侃 Falcon 回收团队今天还得继续坚守岗位，暂无法停下休息。 --- ### [09:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=598s) 格温·肖特韦尔的早期抉择与“名副其实”的宿命论 主持人盛赞 SpaceX 的崛起是“资本主义乃至美国历史上最非凡的商业传奇之一”，起点不过是加州埃尔塞贡多（El Segundo）的一个小镇。谈到格温·肖特韦尔，主持人打趣称这是典型的“名字决定命运”（Nominative Determinism）——要造火箭，找一个姓“Shotwell”（打得准、射得好）的人来管准没错。回顾她的履历，早年曾在克莱斯勒（Chrysler）工作，随后进入美国航空航天公司（The Aerospace Corporation）从事军用航天研发合同的技术工作。 2002 年肖特韦尔考虑加入 SpaceX 时经历过激烈的内心挣扎，甚至把埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的邀约“已读不回”拖了好几个星期。这在如今马斯克凡事要求立刻决断的风格下显得不可思议，但当时 SpaceX 只是个无足轻重的小初创，毫无行业成功先例。肖特韦尔当时是一名兼职抚养孩子的单亲母亲，跳出稳定的大企业去陪一个“在互联网赚了钱想搞火箭的家伙”冒险，风险极其高昂。最终在洛杉矶高速公路上开车时她突然顿悟：哪怕自己搞砸了或者公司倒闭了又何妨，“真正重要的在于尝试本身——勇敢尝试高风险的事，成为令人激动的事业的一部分”。 - 肖特韦尔早年有克莱斯勒背景，后任职于 Aerospace Corporation 负责军用空间研发合同。 - 2002 年犹豫数周才决定加入 SpaceX，当时她是一位兼职单亲母亲，面临极高的职业与生活风险。 --- ### [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=738s) 剩余运力逻辑、星链爆发与全球 30 分钟点对点旅行 肖特韦尔在星链（Starlink）起步期普及了一个核心理念——“剩余运力”（Residual Capability），即先于市场需求超前建设发射能力。SpaceX 制造了远超当时市场需求的运力，加上猎鹰火箭极高的发射效率和低廉成本，他们得以将自家多余的舱位填满数以千计的互联网通信卫星，由此在火箭发射业务之上孵化出一个巨大的星链商业帝国。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 剩余运力商业扩展逻辑 accDescr: 展示 SpaceX 如何通过超前建设火箭发射运力，进而衍生出星链卫星星座与点对点客运构想。 subgraph LaunchCap ["核心发射运力"] A["超前建设发射运力<br/>（降本/高频复用）"] --> B["产生大量'剩余运力'<br/>（Residual Capability）"] end subgraph NewBiz ["衍生商业飞轮"] B --> C["部署 Starlink 星座<br/>（填补自有发射空间）"] B -.-> D["Starship 点对点客运<br/>（如纽约至东京 30 分钟）"] end ``` 这种“不断构建基础设施，再顺势捕捉衍生商机”的思维，也延伸到了曾被寄予厚望的星舰（Starship）地球点对点洲际运输构想（例如“纽约到东京仅需 30 分钟”）。虽然点对点载人目前在 S-1 招股书和市场宣传中退居次席，但随着发射安全性提升与成本骤降，超快轨道客运在理论上依旧可行，甚至可能比多年卡在监管审批泥潭里的高超音速客机更容易落地。 - 商业飞轮：通过“剩余运力”超前扩张，低成本发射 Starlink 卫星网络。 - 远期设想：利用 Starship 实现 30 分钟纽约直达东京的全球洲际点对点运输。 --- ### [13:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=833s) 揭秘肖特韦尔：鞋里的苏格兰纸条、防掉线天线与管理反差 聊到财富分配时，主持人调侃马斯克正迈向万亿美元身家，而肖特韦尔去年薪酬约为 8,600 万美元（主要为期权形式），身家刚刚迈过 10 亿美元门槛，位列公司 8 位董事之一。62 岁的肖特韦尔与马斯克搭档超过二十年，她身上还有个极富个人色彩的迷信仪式：由于 SpaceX 首次火箭成功入轨时她身在苏格兰，自此每次火箭发射，她都会在两张便签纸上写下“Scotland”，分别垫在两只鞋的鞋垫下，确保每次发射时自己都在“踏足苏格兰”。这引发现场关于工作迷信与消除干扰的趣味讨论。 肖特韦尔在政治风波中多次充当定海神针，积极安抚 NASA 官员消除外部担忧。她极度克制社交媒体的使用，坦言“更喜欢面对面的马斯克，而不是推特上的马斯克”，直言现实中的埃隆全神贯注，与网络上动辄狂发表情包、四处引战的形象宛如两人。她早年以业务拓展副总裁身份加入，是公司第 7 号员工，2008 年升任总裁兼 COO，同年主导锁定了关键的 16 亿美元 NASA 商业货运合同。生活中的肖特韦尔住在得州发射基地附近的一座 1,000 英亩农场，嫁给了一位 SpaceX 工程师；为了在每天 40 分钟的通勤路上与马斯克通电话不掉线，她甚至在私家车顶装了一台 Starlink Mini 终端。 - 肖特韦尔现年 62 岁，系 SpaceX 第 7 号员工，2008 年升任总裁兼 COO，同年斩获 16 亿美元 NASA 补给大单。 - 去年薪酬约 8,600 万美元（主要为期权），身家迈入 10 亿美元行列。 - 发射仪式：鞋底放置写有“Scotland”的便签以祈求好运。 - 硬件改装：私家车顶安装 Starlink Mini 终端保证与马斯克长途通话不掉线。 - 宏大愿景：曾表态如果 10 年内不能在月球建立基地和生产设施，她会感到十分遗憾。 --- ### [16:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1005s) 2004 听证会往事与今日平稳的 IPO 盘面 主持人援引吉米·索尼（Jimmy Soni）在《华尔街日报》披露的历史细节，回顾了 2004 年年轻马斯克在国会参议院小组委员会作证的往事。那是航天飞机停飞、14 名宇航员在两起事故中遇难的黑暗时期，全美笼罩在丧失载人航天能力的巨大焦虑中。时任参议员比尔·纳尔逊（Bill Nelson，曾亲历航天飞机飞行）警告称，失去航天飞机意味着美国将被迫多年依赖俄罗斯火箭。当时首轮出庭作证的是 NASA 高管与退役海军将领，次轮则是来自 ATK、洛克希德·马丁（Lockheed Martin）及航天集团（Aerospace Group）的老牌军工巨头代表。在那场听证会上，初生牛犊的马斯克就公开断言：唯有引入真正的开放市场竞争，才能彻底重塑整个航天产业。 镜头切回当前的 IPO 走势，两名主持人对照盘面交流起交易预测。盘面走势异乎寻常的平静稳定，既没有剧烈的暴拉也没有深幅跳水，对于追求波动率和戏剧性走势的交易者来说略显沉闷。主持人评价这正体现了项目从头到尾被管理得极为稳健成熟，且作为一家体量已达万亿美元级别的庞然大物，即使当下流通盘规模有限，也很难再像典型次新股那样动辄出现单日 10% 以上的大起大落。 - 2004 年参议院听证背景：航天飞机两度失事停飞，全美面临只能仰仗俄制飞船送宇航员上天的窘境。 - 年轻的马斯克向国会力陈：必须通过“开放竞争”（Open Competition）打破军工联合体垄断以改变行业格局。 - SpaceX IPO 首日盘面走势极度稳健，波动温和，凸显出巨型市值与成熟操盘之下的从容表现。 ### [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1129s) 青年马斯克国会听证会：挑战垄断与“海豹春药”名场面 节目切入一段关于埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）早年经历的精彩回顾。回溯到2004年的美国国会听证会，现场工业专家席上坐满了洛克希德·马丁（Lockheed Martin）、全金科技（ATK）和航天公司（Aerospace Corp）等传统航空航天巨头的高管。当时年仅32岁、创办太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）才两年的马斯克也赫然在列，而当时他甚至还没发射过任何一枚火箭。马斯克此行带着极其直接的诉求：NASA刚在没有经过公开竞争的情况下，向其竞争对手授予了一份价值2.5亿美元的合同，SpaceX对此提出了抗议。当参议员们试图讨论“航天飞机退役后NASA如何进入太空”以及重型运载能力等既定议题时，马斯克却执意插话伸冤。主持官员屡次试图将他拉回正题：“请专注于重型运载问题，埃隆，回到主线上。”马斯克虽然嘴上答着“当然”，却抓住一切机会把纠正记录留在国会档案中：“Mr. Reddy 说这是竞争性招标，我认为他说错了，事实上这完全不是竞争性的。” 紧接着，马斯克向在座众人发表了一通当时根本没人听得进去的尖锐批评。他直言过去的几十年是人类航天史上的“黑暗时代”，一个又一个耗资巨大的政府项目接连失败、甚至未能送上发射台；公众之所以逐渐疏远太空，“并非出于一个疲惫民族的冷漠，而是源于一个充满希望的民族的失望”。早在2003年关于商业航天的听证会上，他就引用过经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特（Joseph Schumpeter）的“创造性破坏”（creative destruction）理论，痛批航天业过去四十年没有一个成功的后起之秀，自阿波罗计划以来几乎毫无进步，而计算机、互联网和跨洲飞行却在竞争中发生了翻天覆地的变化。他呼吁政府只需扮演“客户”而非“竞争对手”。甚至在听证会上，他还幽默地嘲讽了官僚监管：法律规定范登堡空军基地的每次发射都要花1万美元评估对当地海豹的影响，但当地海豹数量一年内却激增了近13%，马斯克戏称：“海豹过得很好，让我发射吧……从人口增长率来看，范登堡基地的发射活动显然起到了春药的作用。” 如今二十多年过去，这位曾经引发国会善意哄笑的“聪明局外人”彻底兑现了他的狂言。2004年笼罩国会的最大恐惧——对莫斯科载人航天的依赖——最终正是被 SpaceX 终结。2020年 Crew Dragon（龙飞船）从美国本土成功运送宇航员至国际空间站，终结了美国长达9年、单座花费高达9000万美元向俄罗斯“拼车”的历史；马斯克当年向参议员描述的半复用火箭，演化成如今能够自主返航着陆并重复发射的庞大火箭舰队。目前 SpaceX 承载了全球半数以上的发射载荷，并在今日迎来被誉为史上规模最大的科技 IPO。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: SpaceX从国会抗议到主导全球发射的演进路径 accDescr: 展示马斯克2003-2004年提出公开竞争主张，最终颠覆依赖俄罗斯发射并主导全球火箭市场的历程 subgraph S1["2003-2004 破局之辩"] A["国会听证：抗议传统巨头垄断与无竞争合同"] --> B["引入熊彼特'创造性破坏'：呼吁政府仅作为客户"] end subgraph S2["技术与商业突破"] B --> C["自主研发可回收复用火箭舰队"] C --> D["2020年龙飞船本土载人发射：终结对俄9年依赖（单座9000万美元）"] end subgraph S3["历史性成果"] D --> E["主导全球超半数有效载荷发射"] E --> F["开启史上规模最大的IPO盛宴"] end ``` ### [22:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1354s) Founders Fund 的史诗级下注与彼得·蒂尔的国际象棋翻车视频 随着 SpaceX 的公开上市，话题自然转向了风险投资历史上最传奇的交易之一——彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）旗下的 Founders Fund 早期以2亿美元的估值向 SpaceX 投资了2000万美元。主播们调侃道，即便历经多轮稀释，这笔投资现在的收益也堪称天文数字，有人开玩笑算成了“8万亿美分”。虽然蒂尔在商业投资上取得了无人能及的巨大成功，但他最近在网络上却遭遇了令人啼笑皆非的“滑铁卢”。 主播现场分享了一段在 Instagram 上爆火的国际象棋视频。一名棋手在 Chess.com 上顺藤摸瓜找到了彼得·蒂尔实名注册的账号（该账号在平台上玩了超过5万盘对局）。视频作者通过其好友列表（全是一众硅谷大佬和斯坦福校友）以及将走法导入 OpeningTree 数据库，与蒂尔在90年代参加公开赛的招牌棋路进行比对，百分之百确认了其本人身份。在对局中，该棋手使出了著名的“斯塔福德弃兵”（Stafford Gambit），并在第六回合通过精妙战术以象吃 f2 格（`Bxf2+`）强行吃掉了蒂尔的皇后。通常棋手丢后便会弃子认输，但蒂尔展现了极致的顽强死活不退。然而仅仅几回合后，蒂尔又犯下了一个通常仅在2000分以下初学者身上才会见的低级失误：用象吃 a7 兵（`Bxa7`），结果被对手顺势走出 `b6` 彻底关门捉象。 这段视频让全场捧腹大笑，因为蒂尔在硅谷向来享有“国际象棋大师与智力天才”的盛名，如今却被路人抓包落入基础开局陷阱。主播借此调侃道，科技巨头其实也都是普通人——就像马斯克面对火箭炸毁的残局永不言弃，却偶尔也会在社交媒体上炮轰在任总统犯下“初级商业外交错误”一样；蒂尔在棋盘上也是“决不放弃，但低级错误照犯不误”。 - **Founders Fund 早期注资**：在 SpaceX 估值仅为2亿美元时注资2000万美元，被主播评价为“有史以来最伟大的风投交易之一”。 - **蒂尔棋局细节**： - Chess.com 实名对局量超过50,000盘； - 遭遇斯塔福德弃兵开局，因第6步战术丢失皇后； - 随后走出 `Bxa7` 贪兵，被黑棋 `b6` 困毙白象。 ### [25:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1543s) SpaceX 股价走势预测与极为严苛的新股配售配额 主播随后展示了分析师 Andy 制作的一张 SpaceX IPO 走势技术分析图，并借机插入了对 AI 协作平台 Codex 的赞助介绍。根据这张图表的戏谑性推演，SpaceX 在上市首日会迎来暴涨，但紧接着在2026、2027和2028年间将面临长达三年的震荡阴跌，届时无数唱衰者会兴高采烈地开“庆功宴”，正如前几年媒体大肆炒作“埃隆·马斯克的崛起与陨落”以及唱衰特斯拉销量一样；然而在那之后，股票将再度垂直暴涨冲向月球，狠狠打脸所有空头。聊到 Founders Fund 的持仓神话时，主播指出这很大程度归功于能够“拿得住”——相比之下，微软、亚马逊或谷歌的许多早期投资机构在50亿美元估值上市时就分红变现了，甚至比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）也曾因过早减持而成了“纸手”（paper hands）；真正能在回报倍数上媲美甚至超越此案的，恐怕只有孙正义（Masayoshi Son）当年用2000万美元押中阿里巴巴并狂揽700亿美元的战绩。 节目的后半段聚焦于二级市场的散户与机构打新狂热。随着 SpaceX 正式挂牌，来自私人银行和经纪商的新股配售（IPO allocation）惨烈程度堪称空前。主播透露聊天群里的一位高净值客户通过私人银行下了100万美元的认购单，最终仅获配了5万美元市值的股票，配售比例仅为二十分之一（5%），而绝大多数散户拿到的比例甚至更低。现场团队也纷纷晒出自己的打新结果：有人认购数十甚至上百股，最终只拿到极小的一部分；制片团队的 Tyler 申请了更多，最终只分到了区区22股。 更有大量投资者在社交网络上哀嚎自己遭遇了“一手奇迹”（the one share wonder），只分到了极其屈辱的“1股”。主播们大开脑洞调侃道，账户里孤零零躺着1股甚至比1股没拿到更难受，券商干脆直接给申请5股的客户配“-1股”的做空仓位，或者直接硬塞一份反向 ETF，引得全场爆笑。 ### [28:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1691s) 疯狂的配售传闻、散户入场迷因与搞怪短信 围绕 SpaceX IPO 的狂热氛围不仅弥漫在华尔街，也充斥着每个人的短信收件箱。主播透露，在上市前夕市场上满天飞的配售额度令人咋舌，甚至有人私下开出了高达 5000 万美元的配售额度。他调侃称自己当然不可能自掏腰包接下这么大一笔单子，甚至当时根本没打算给周围的朋友发短信，因为感觉市场上似乎人人都分到了大把配售额度，到处都是流动性。然而事实证明，实际的市场需求远远超出了流通供应量，供求关系极度失衡。 随后，两位主持人聊起了网络上疯传的 SpaceX IPO 迷因短信。网上流传着各种自称是“前 Uber 司机”通过 iMessage 发来打探 SpaceX 股票走势的截图，例如“SpaceX 本周 IPO，老板怎么看？我是三个月前载过你的 Kyle”。尽管主持人们一眼看出这大概率是编造的段子——毕竟现在的网约车软件早就对乘客与司机的手机号码做了虚拟隐私保护，而且截图里的气泡渲染效果也假得不自然——但它生动反映了这场 IPO 在普通公众中引发的狂热。团队成员 Nick 甚至在当天早晨收到了一位完全不懂投资的熟人发来的“炒股真传”：“进去之后赶紧出来，先进去、再出来，日内一定要退场！”而此时的 Nick 账上其实只可怜巴巴地握着一股。 紧接着，节目插播了一段极具极客健身幽默的赞助商口播，推介了所谓 Codex 的“奥林匹亚之路”（Road to Olympia）扩展包：号称能将健身计划像重构生产级代码一样重构成肥大训练逻辑，彻底告别垃圾训练量和意大利面条式编排，淘汰弃用的后三角肌函数，取而代之的是具备自动化渐进负荷、带小腿测试覆盖率的现代化增肌架构，但在构建失败时会弹出严重警告：“碳水化合物摄入严重不足”。 ### [30:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1821s) 正午开盘预测揭晓与“赢家的广告奖励” 节目时间来到正午，到了揭晓团队早先对 SpaceX 上市开盘表现竞猜的时刻。SpaceX 最终确定的 IPO 发行价为每股 135 美元。John Coogan 揭晓了自己的预测——他之前语出惊人地压了 0% 的涨幅，即股价完全定格在 135 美元。Coogan 开玩笑称，全场最搞笑的结局莫过于投行定价精准到极致、市场展现出无可挑剔的绝对效率，“没有暴涨、没有抛售，走势图就是一条水平的直线”。然而现实中没人希望看到这种波澜不惊的场面，市场通常期待看到 20% 左右的开盘溢价（Pop）。目前盘中 SpaceX 的涨幅稳稳落在约 24%，证明投行与承销商的定价其实非常接近目标区间。 另一位主持人坦言自己预期过于激进，原先猜测两分钟前的价格应该冲到 283 美元，至少以超过 170 美元开盘并一路狂飙（涨幅预计在 33% 左右）。但实际走势是在 160 多美元开盘后一度下探至 158 美元，随后稳步回升至 167 美元附近。最终，猜了 31%（目标价 176 美元）的 Tyler 成为了全场最接近真实行情（24%）的胜出者。至于获胜的“大奖”，则是被奖励亲自念一段 Ramp 的赞助广告——因为平时这份口播机会都被 Coogan 牢牢垄断。Tyler 随即一本正经地念出：“Ramp，时间就是金钱，为你省时省钱，一站式提供企业信用卡、账单支付及财务管理方案”，完成了这个戏剧性的彩蛋惩罚。 - **IPO 发行价**：每股 135 美元 - **John Coogan 预测**：涨幅 0%（135 美元，主打“有效市场假说”冷幽默） - **激进多头预测**：涨幅 33%（开盘即破 170 美元，预期冲上 283 美元） - **Tyler 预测（获胜者）**：涨幅 31%（目标价 176 美元） - **正午实际盘面**：股价约 167 美元，实际溢价率约 24%（盘中曾回踩 158 美元） ### [32:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1943s) Whoop 睡眠评分的古德哈特定律与科技圈日常吐槽 讨论转向了社交媒体 Timeline 上的科技生活热点。医疗初创企业创始人 Will Manidis 发推调侃称，自己花了一整年时间困惑为何每天都昏昏欲睡、戴着的 Whoop 手环睡眠评分始终极低，而这个顽疾的根治方法极其简单——直接摘掉 Whoop 不戴，所有焦虑迎刃而解。X 平台甚至一本正经地为此生成了一条新闻话题：“放弃 Whoop 追踪器治好了金融圈人士的睡眠焦虑”。 主持人们对此深表共鸣，吐槽如今的量化自我设备让人本末倒置：“你想知道自己睡得好不好？稍微感受一下身体就知道了，那就是你的睡眠评分。”这类设备完美印证了古德哈特定律（Goodhart's Law）——当一项指标变成目标本身时，它就不再是一个好指标；过度执着于刷出一个高评分，反而摧毁了睡眠本身。相较而言，大家更认可像 Eight Sleep 智能床垫的实用物理降温功能，以及关注 REM 快速眼动与深睡比例、静息心率等长期趋势，而不是每天早上对一个虚幻的“综合得分”斤斤计较。 ### [33:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=2004s) 苹果声称“Siri 绝不做你的 AI 女友”与节目尾声 节目随后切入科技界的最新交锋：苹果软件工程高级副总裁 Craig Federighi 公开宣称，苹果的 AI 策略与当下许多聊天机器人背道而驰，强调“Siri 绝不会成为你的 AI 女友”。Federighi 直言，目前市场上很多聊天模型专注于提高用户粘性和盲目逢迎（sycophancy），试图拉近与用户的私人情感，引诱用户倾诉隐私并借此建立情感连接；而苹果坚决抵制这种倾向，若用户试图与 Siri 建立浪漫伴侣关系，Siri 将“100% 毫无兴趣”。 主持人们对此大加调侃，认为这种发言简直是在向互联网上的黑客与越狱（Jailbreak）高手下战书。AI 社区最擅长的就是攻破各种大模型的防御边界， Federighi 这种自信满满的表态无异于给全世界的“撩妹高手”设立了一个公开挑战靶子。在大家看来，苹果目前的 AI 进展仿佛还停留在数年前，面对席卷整个行业的 AI 情感陪伴浪潮，其官方的对策似乎就是给 Siri 加上一条简单的 System Prompt：“千万不要给用户当女朋友”，仿佛这样就攻克了困扰行业的难题。 节目的最后，主播向所有参与 SpaceX 历史性 IPO 并分得一杯羹的听众表示祝贺，呼吁大家在 Apple Podcasts 留下五星好评，并订阅官网通讯。两位主播在欢声笑语中互道周末愉快，以标志性的“Flash bang out”收尾，结束了这场追踪 SpaceX 上市全过程的科技狂欢。 ## Notable quotes > [01:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=96s) looks good boss — Jordi Hays > [06:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=373s) 世界上有哪家公司会在自己公开上市的当天早晨还打一发火箭上天？唯有 SpaceX 敢这么做。 — Gwynne Shotwell > [09:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=598s) 真正重要的在于尝试本身——勇敢尝试高风险的事，成为令人激动的事业的一部分 — Gwynne Shotwell > [13:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=833s) 更喜欢面对面的马斯克，而不是推特上的马斯克 — Gwynne Shotwell > [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1129s) 请专注于重型运载问题，埃隆，回到主线上。 — 国会听证会主持官员 > [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1129s) Mr. Reddy 说这是竞争性招标，我认为他说错了，事实上这完全不是竞争性的。 — Elon Musk > [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1129s) 并非出于一个疲惫民族的冷漠，而是源于一个充满希望的民族的失望 — Elon Musk > [18:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1129s) 海豹过得很好，让我发射吧……从人口增长率来看，范登堡基地的发射活动显然起到了春药的作用。 — Elon Musk > [28:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1691s) SpaceX 本周 IPO，老板怎么看？我是三个月前载过你的 Kyle — Kyle > [28:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1691s) 进去之后赶紧出来，先进去、再出来，日内一定要退场！ — 熟人 > [30:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1821s) 没有暴涨、没有抛售，走势图就是一条水平的直线 — John Coogan > [30:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1821s) Ramp，时间就是金钱，为你省时省钱，一站式提供企业信用卡、账单支付及财务管理方案 — Tyler > [32:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=1943s) 你想知道自己睡得好不好？稍微感受一下身体就知道了，那就是你的睡眠评分。 — 主持人 > [33:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg&t=2004s) Siri 绝不会成为你的 AI 女友 — Craig Federighi ## Mentioned SpaceX, John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Tyler, Bill Gurley, Gwynne Shotwell, Elon Musk, Kimbal Musk, 猎鹰 1 号 (Falcon 1), 猎鹰 9 号 (Falcon 9), 星链 (Starlink), 星舰 (Starship), xAI, 载人龙飞船 (Crew Dragon), 克莱斯勒 (Chrysler), 美国航空航天公司 (The Aerospace Corporation), NASA, Bill Nelson, 洛克希德·马丁 (Lockheed Martin), 全金科技 (ATK), Founders Fund, Peter Thiel, Chess.com, Bill Gates, 孙正义 (Masayoshi Son), Codex, Ramp, CrowdStrike, Whoop, Eight Sleep, Will Manidis, Craig Federighi, 苹果 (Apple), Siri ## Video description Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.com Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com/ Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive Chapters: 00:00 SpaceX IPO Goes Live: Pricing, Pop + Predictions 06:13 Gwen Shotwell Opens the Nasdaq + SpaceX Makes History 09:58 The Shotwell Era, Starlink + SpaceX’s Residual Capability 16:45 Young Elon, NASA, and the Case for Open Competition 22:34 Founders Fund’s Historic Bet + Peter Thiel Chess Detour 25:43 IPO Charts, Allocations + Retail Frenzy 30:21 Noon Prediction Reveal, Winner’s Prize + Weekend Wrap [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rMrQyKXTDg)

[1:36] Jordi Hays: looks good boss [6:13] Gwynne Shotwell: 世界上有哪家公司会在自己公开上市的当天早晨还打一发火箭上天？唯有 SpaceX 敢这么做。 [9:58] Gwynne Shotwell: 真正重要的在于尝试本身——勇敢尝试高风险的事，成为令人激动的事业的一部分 [13:53] Gwynne Shotwell: 更喜欢面对面的马斯克，而不是推特上的马斯克 [18:49] 国会听证会主持官员: 请专注于重型运载问题，埃隆，回到主线上。 [18:49] Elon Musk: Mr. Reddy 说这是竞争性招标，我认为他说错了，事实上这完全不是竞争性的。 [18:49] Elon Musk: 并非出于一个疲惫民族的冷漠，而是源于一个充满希望的民族的失望 [18:49] Elon Musk: 海豹过得很好，让我发射吧……从人口增长率来看，范登堡基地的发射活动显然起到了春药的作用。 [28:11] Kyle: SpaceX 本周 IPO，老板怎么看？我是三个月前载过你的 Kyle [28:11] 熟人: 进去之后赶紧出来，先进去、再出来，日内一定要退场！ [30:21] John Coogan: 没有暴涨、没有抛售，走势图就是一条水平的直线 [30:21] Tyler: Ramp，时间就是金钱，为你省时省钱，一站式提供企业信用卡、账单支付及财务管理方案 [32:23] 主持人: 你想知道自己睡得好不好？稍微感受一下身体就知道了，那就是你的睡眠评分。 [33:24] Craig Federighi: Siri 绝不会成为你的 AI 女友

[9:00] Gwynne Shotwell: It was the trying part that was the most important. [16:49] Elon Musk: The seals are doing fine. Let me launch. [16:49] Elon Musk: launch activity serves as an aphrodisiac. [25:43] Uber Driver: SpaceX IPO, what are we thinking, boss? [25:43] Non-professional acquaintance: get in and get out by the end of the day [31:17] Tyler: Ramp. Time is money, save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more. All in one place.

[0:00] It's a massive day today. SpaceX IPO, [0:03] priced at $135 a share, opened at 150. [0:06] Where is it right now? Jordy, are you on [0:08] it? Do you have the price? Oh, the price [0:10] is up there. Okay. Now we're getting [0:13] >> [laughter] [0:13] >> the endless mirror. Uh you can call the [0:15] price. [0:16] >> Here we go. [0:16] >> We'll be tracking it throughout the [0:17] show, so stay tuned. It's a $2.28 [0:22] >> 172? [0:23] >> $172 [0:25] a share. Uh I had Tyler and Jordy uh [0:29] submit uh confidential estimates for [0:33] where the stock would be at noon [0:34] effectively. Jordy went with a market [0:37] cap-based estimate. Tyler went with a [0:39] share price estimate, I think. [0:41] >> Which is what I was told. [0:42] >> I went with a percentage-based estimate. [0:44] You can translate between all of them. [0:45] We'll get there. But uh the stock's [0:47] doing well. The IPO is successful, I [0:50] would say. Uh there's been a bunch of [0:52] chatter back and forth, bull cases, bear [0:54] cases. Um but overall, it's hard not to [0:57] look at this as a success. The you know, [1:01] Bill Gurley doesn't want a crazy pop on [1:03] day one, doesn't want it to go up 100%. [1:05] If we're in 10, 20, 30% range for [1:08] something this big, that just feels like [1:11] everything came together properly. And [1:14] so so far, looks really, really good. So [1:17] at noon, we will check in with our [1:19] predictions and see who won. There is an [1:21] exciting prize for the winner, by the [1:23] way. It's It will be revealed at noon as [1:25] well. We can pull up this video from [1:27] Gwynne Shotwell, who is the president of [1:30] SpaceX and has been on an absolute tear [1:32] building the company for [1:33] basically its entire existence. [1:35] >> [laughter] [1:36] >> What? What are you laughing at? [1:37] >> I didn't know what your prediction was. [1:39] >> Did you see what it is? [1:40] >> Yeah, Nick just shared it. [1:41] >> did? [1:41] >> [laughter] [1:44] >> This this guy over here. This is a funny [1:46] guy over here. [1:47] >> Be revealed. [1:47] >> Funny guy over here. This is why you [1:49] trade This is why you trade bits, not [1:52] stocks. [1:53] >> like asking me 25 [1:58] clarifying questions. I was like, the [1:59] price is content to have a conversation. [2:02] Just pick a number and you're like oh [2:04] well wait does it count where it opens [2:06] or what where it opens after like you [2:08] just [2:08] >> saw your positioning was confused. I [2:10] just saw your positioning was confused. [2:12] >> We got to have a discussion about this. [2:14] There's nothing accurate at this stage. [2:17] >> Everything's on the line John. [2:18] Everything is on [2:20] >> I was laughing about how you wouldn't [2:22] take a side on the on the dog walker [2:24] versus the dentist. I was I was like dog [2:27] walker dentist blind who you going? And [2:29] you were like I I can't possibly. I [2:31] couldn't possibly in the name of good [2:33] television [2:34] just pick a random side for the purpose [2:36] >> or dentist? [2:37] >> Yeah. [2:38] >> Beach debate. [2:39] >> The beach debate. We never we never got [2:40] your answer. And you're like I need more [2:42] information. I can't possibly make a [2:44] call. [2:44] >> This is it's such a tough one cuz I [2:46] don't [2:46] >> That that tough pick one randomly. Why [2:48] is it tough? [2:49] >> why it's tough for me John. [2:50] >> Okay explain. [2:51] >> I have never in my life hired or worked [2:54] with a dog walker. My family growing up [2:56] had a couple dogs. We walked our dogs. [2:59] Like we never [3:00] >> to the dentist. [3:00] >> I was the dog walker. [3:01] >> Yeah. You've been to you're not your own [3:03] dentist though. So why aren't you just [3:04] going dentist? [3:05] >> I've never had a cavity. Every time I go [3:07] in there I I guess I'm blessed. [3:10] >> Okay. [3:10] >> Every time I go in there they're like [3:11] looks good boss and and I just head out. [3:14] >> So equally useless. [3:16] >> Equally useless profession. [3:17] >> So flip the coin it's TV. [3:19] >> Useless [laughter] profession. [3:21] No I just don't have any I don't have [3:23] any connection. I need I need like a [3:24] flying [3:25] >> Why don't you fall back to like the [3:26] economic power of the dentist industry [3:28] versus the dog walking industry? Like if [3:30] you had to pick a job if you were trying [3:32] to get a bag [3:33] >> I respect dog walker. I there's no [3:34] >> go dog walker. Oh you would be an elite [3:36] dog walker over a mid dentist? [3:38] >> Here's here's two here's like here's [3:40] kind of my thinking. [3:41] >> Yeah yeah yeah. [3:41] >> There's a guy in my neighborhood [3:43] >> Yeah. [3:43] >> who is walking dogs in my neighborhood [3:45] all day long. [3:46] >> Yeah. [3:46] >> I'm like who like a lot of people in my [3:48] neighborhood don't work. They're just [3:50] home all day. Like why aren't you [3:52] walking your dog? [3:53] >> Okay. [3:53] >> But, I think it's amazing that this guy [3:55] is just like [3:56] >> Clearly printing all day long, just [3:58] going for walks, hanging out, he's [3:59] listening to music, hanging out, he's a [4:00] super nice guy. [4:02] >> He picks up the the [4:03] >> Sounds like you're going dog walking. [4:04] >> Except the poop when he when the poop on [4:06] my lawn. I appreciate it. We have a, you [4:08] know, [4:09] >> Good relationship. [4:10] >> Maybe wish he wouldn't do that, but [4:11] >> Okay. [4:11] >> We have a fine relationship. But then [4:13] dentists, I could get really excited [4:15] about a dentist if they were [4:17] >> You're still torn. You're still torn. [4:19] You're still not [4:20] >> Private equity backed roll up, right? [4:22] >> Okay. Well, that's an option. [4:23] >> The dentist was kind of a figurehead for [4:26] >> for some PE firm [4:27] >> Yeah. [4:27] >> be able to deploy huge amounts of [4:29] capital into rolling up family practices [4:32] >> and raising prices. [4:34] >> if what if you're a dog walker, you you [4:37] earn so much money you start being able [4:39] to buy small dentist shops, rolling them [4:41] up, you flip from dog walking into [4:43] dentistry? [4:44] >> Well, that would be the way. I don't We [4:45] don't know much about this story. [4:47] >> Yeah. [4:47] >> But we do know there's a conflict. [4:49] >> Yeah. [4:50] >> But that would be the way for the dog [4:51] walker to strike back is buy the dentist [4:54] back. [4:54] >> So, final final answer. [4:55] >> Come in [4:56] >> What what side are you picking? [4:57] >> If the dog walker will commit to [5:01] >> conditionals. [5:02] >> Why [laughter] [5:03] can't I have [5:03] >> Dog walker or dentist? [5:04] >> Why can't I have conditions? [5:05] >> You can't have conditions because that's [5:07] the rules that I'm laying down. You got [5:09] to pick one. Dog walker or dentist? [5:10] Whose side are you on? [5:12] >> Dog walker. [5:13] >> There we go. Finally, we got you. [5:14] >> But I'm going to put but I'm going I'm [5:16] going to put heavy [5:18] >> The whole point is that you got to pick [5:19] a real [5:20] >> a serious amount of pressure [5:21] >> I'll just take dentist side and I'm [5:23] going to defend that and steal man that. [5:24] That's fine. [5:24] >> put a serious amount of pressure on the [5:26] dog walker [5:27] >> Okay. [5:27] >> and I will provide the financial backing [5:29] to acquire the dentist practice and shut [5:31] it down. [laughter] [5:32] >> Okay. Okay. [5:33] >> Because I know they have I know they [5:34] have some conflict. [5:35] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. [5:36] >> And it sounds like it's over the beach. [5:38] It's really not that personal. [5:40] >> Yeah. Yeah. [5:40] >> And access to the beach. [5:42] >> Yeah. [5:42] >> But I think there's an opportunity to [5:43] make it personal. [5:44] >> [laughter] [5:44] >> Okay. [5:45] >> And I think I think at this point if [5:47] they're getting written up in the [5:48] journal about this conflict, I think [5:50] they should make a person they got to [5:51] figure out how to make it personal and I [5:52] think buying the dentist practice and [5:55] then shutting it down [5:56] >> [laughter] [5:56] >> or [5:59] >> That's a high high hurdle. [6:00] >> No, you can raise you can raise an SPV [6:02] and put the capital together. And I I [6:04] would be willing to, you know, I need to [6:06] meet the guy first, but I'm at least [6:08] moderately interested in providing at [6:10] least some of the backing. [6:11] >> Okay. Okay. [6:12] >> for the [6:13] >> I got you. Well, let me tell you about [6:15] CrowdStrike. Your business is AI, their [6:17] business is securing it. CrowdStrike [6:18] secures AI and stops breaches. [6:21] Uh let's play this clip from Gwynne [6:23] Shotwell [6:24] standing at the Nasdaq on the day of the [6:27] SpaceX [6:28] IPO. I think we might be able to play it [6:30] on the big board. Uh stock is doing well [6:32] holding steady at 2.27 trillion. [6:35] >> split screen [6:36] >> Whatever production team wants to do, we [6:38] will we will do as long as the folks at [6:39] home can see Gwynne Shotwell giving her [6:43] speech to [6:45] >> I got to say Tyler is looking like a [6:47] young Kimbal Musk right now. [6:50] >> to be here. [6:50] >> He's channeling [6:51] >> Today we make history again. [6:55] We have a history of making history. [6:58] So, I want everyone to know that we did [7:00] open this morning in a rather exciting [7:02] way. We launched Falcon 9 launched [7:04] Starlink satellites to orbit. [7:07] >> We have a history [7:09] of making history. [7:10] >> So, what company would do such a thing [7:13] on the day that they open in the public [7:16] market? [7:17] SpaceX would, [7:19] right? [7:22] I am so proud of this team. Today we're [7:25] 24 Not today. This year we are 24 years [7:28] old. Elon founded this company in 2002 [7:31] initially [7:33] to build rockets and spaceships that [7:34] will take humans to Mars, the moon, and [7:37] even beyond. [7:39] We've done We've not quite gotten to [7:41] Mars. We're almost at the moon, but [7:43] let's just quickly run through the [7:45] amazing things that you guys have [7:47] accomplished. 2008, 6 weeks after a [7:50] failure of flight 3 Falcon 1, we got the [7:53] first liquid fueled rocket to orbit from [7:55] a private company. Yay. [7:57] Okay. [7:58] >> [applause] [8:00] >> By the way, I should have prefaced this [8:02] with everyone said we could never get to [8:04] orbit. Check. [8:06] But it was a little rocket. Then it's [8:08] everyone said, "Well, you can't get a [8:10] real rocket to orbit." [8:12] 2 years later, [8:13] we got a real rocket to orbit, Falcon 9. [8:16] Oh, well, you'll never [8:18] you'll never get to the space station, [8:19] cuz that's what we really want to do, [8:21] right? We want to take humans outside [8:23] the bounds of Earth, but you'll never [8:25] get astronauts to the space station. [8:26] Check. We did that, too. Dollars, right? [8:29] Oh, you'll never fly Falcon 9 enough. [8:31] [laughter] You'll never get to [8:32] production. [8:33] Uh 165 launches last year. Check. [8:39] You'll never build a rocket large enough [8:41] to take humans to the moon and Mars. [8:43] We build one. We've flown it, and this [8:45] year, I believe, we'll get to orbit with [8:47] that vehicle, and we'll recover the [8:49] first the second stage. We've already [8:51] recovered the first stage and reflown [8:53] it. With the merger the acquisition of [8:55] xAI, we now as a group own the largest [8:59] coherent gigawatt class compute on the [9:01] planet, which will help us truth seek [9:04] and understand the universe. So, [9:06] congratulations to all of us for that. [9:08] So, we're about 22,000 strong. I'm super [9:12] proud that over half of us actually [9:15] bought additional stock in this opening [9:18] totaling almost a billion dollars. [9:23] So, thank you for that, too. [9:26] But really the thank yous go to all of [9:28] you for hanging in there, for keeping a [9:31] straight spine as the doubters doubt, to [9:35] to [9:35] historic things sometimes every day, [9:39] multiple times a week. Thank you, all of [9:41] you, for doing this. And I hope today is [9:43] a day that you feel great about [9:44] [laughter] and that you're celebrating. [9:46] Take a moment. Now, the Falcon recovery [9:48] team can't take a moment today, um but [9:50] everybody else can, and I hope Falcon [9:52] recovery team could take a moment a [9:53] little bit later. Yeah. [9:54] >> In all seriousness [9:57] >> [applause] [9:58] >> Uh congratulations to the SpaceX team. [10:00] It is like truly one of the most [10:01] remarkable stories [10:04] uh in [10:05] the history of capitalism, in the [10:07] history of America, started in a little [10:10] town called El Segundo, and uh [10:14] Gwynne Shotwell, one of the most [10:17] impressive executives of the modern era, [10:19] and uh we all should have known. Just [10:22] due [laughter] [10:23] to the nominative determinism. [10:25] >> Yeah. [10:26] >> If you're going to build a rocket [10:26] company, hire somebody to run the [10:28] company with a last name Shotwell, [10:31] because she has shot quite well. [10:33] >> Uh she worked at Chrysler. [10:36] >> [laughter] [10:36] >> Uh and then uh began work at at the El [10:39] Segundo [10:39] >> People like to say like, "Oh, [10:40] non-traditional background." [10:43] >> Uh somewhat. [10:44] >> Chrysler. [10:46] >> Yeah, I mean [10:46] >> Not exactly like a target. [10:48] >> Yeah, well, she worked at the Aerospace [10:49] Corporation, did technical work on [10:51] military space research and development [10:52] contracts. She said, "When I was [10:54] considering joining SpaceX back in 2002, [10:56] I was struggling with the decision and [10:58] drawing it out for weeks. It's crazy [11:00] leaving Elon on red for weeks seems [11:03] extremely risky. It feels like every [11:05] decision he makes now is like go, no go [11:07] today, get back to me right now." Uh [11:10] back then, obviously, SpaceX was very [11:12] young, uh less leverage, less less [11:14] energy, less momentum. So, uh these [11:17] decisions would be drawn out. She said, [11:19] "It seemed so risky for me, personally, [11:22] to join this little startup in an [11:24] industry where none had ever succeeded." [11:26] I think she was starting a family around [11:28] that time, and so it was risky uh from a [11:31] career perspective. She said, "At the [11:33] time I was a part-time single mother, [11:36] yeah, [11:36] and this was just too far out of my [11:38] comfort zone. She was used to bigger [11:40] corporations, more established [11:42] companies. She's going to this small [11:45] startup that has at that time, it's like [11:48] a guy who made money on the internet now [11:50] wants to do Rocket Tree. What's the [11:52] chance of that works? It sounds crazy." [11:54] And it was at the time. [11:56] She says, "I was driving on the freeway [11:58] here in LA when it finally hit me. I was [12:00] being a total idiot. Who cares if I [12:02] tried this job and either I failed or [12:04] the company failed? What I recognized at [12:07] that moment was that it was the trying [12:09] part that was the most important. Try [12:12] that risky thing, be a part of something [12:15] exciting." Uh what a what a fantastic [12:18] run. She I I'm not sure if she coined [12:20] the term residual capability, but that's [12:22] a big phrase that she started using [12:24] around the time Starlink started [12:26] working. Just this idea that they would [12:28] go and build a head of demand almost. [12:31] So, they SpaceX built basically more [12:34] launch capacity than there was demand [12:37] for, but then because there was space on [12:39] every SpaceX rocket and they were able [12:41] to build them so so efficiently, so [12:44] affordably, they were able to put up a [12:45] massive constellation of internet [12:47] connected satellites, Starlinks, and [12:51] develop another huge business on top of [12:52] it. And so, [12:54] this idea of of building building [12:56] building and then [12:58] finding the different opportunities. For [13:00] a while, SpaceX point-to-point was the [13:02] big [13:03] the big residual capability unlock that [13:05] was coming in a few years. The idea that [13:08] you get on a spaceship on a spaceship, a [13:10] starship, in New York and you'd be in [13:13] Tokyo in 30 minutes because you would [13:15] have gone all the way to space and back [13:17] and it would land. I think that's still [13:19] part of the plan, but obviously took a [13:20] backseat in the S1, took a backseat in [13:22] the marketing materials for the company. [13:24] But something that is still possible if [13:27] you [13:29] wind up delivering incredible safety and [13:32] performance and cost [13:34] cost reductions to the rocket launches, [13:37] why not hop on a rocket to get across [13:40] the world in 30 minutes? Sounds pretty [13:42] cool and probably oddly easier to [13:44] approve than hypersonic plane since [13:46] those have been stuck in [13:49] regulatory approvals for [13:50] you know, years and decades and never [13:52] really worked out. [13:53] >> I mean Elon's hitting 1T and she's just [13:55] hitting 1B. [13:56] >> Well, yeah. [13:57] >> Yeah. [13:58] >> [laughter] [13:58] >> Shotwell was paid 86 million last year [14:00] mostly in the form of stock options. [14:02] She's one of eight board members at [14:03] SpaceX. She's 62 and has worked with [14:05] Musk for two decades. She has a specific [14:08] ritual for launch days [14:10] because she was in Scotland the first [14:12] time the company successfully got a [14:14] rocket into orbit. She now writes [14:16] Scotland on two sticky notes and places [14:19] each inside her shoes to be in Scotland [14:23] for every launch. She said it at 2020 [14:27] >> Scotland mindset. [14:28] >> That's pretty elite. I like [14:30] is what what what's that called? [14:32] Where you're [14:35] superstitious? [14:37] Superstitions rare, potentially [14:39] underrated? What do you think? Do you [14:41] have any superstitions? [14:42] >> I mean it's in the word super. [14:44] >> Yeah. [14:45] >> Super power. [14:46] >> What's your take on superstition? Do you [14:47] have any? Doesn't sound like it. [14:49] >> I think it's I think it's quite [14:50] distracting. [14:51] >> Distracting? [14:52] >> Yeah, kind of like could it could end up [14:54] being a pretty big waste of time. So I [14:55] avoid them. [14:56] >> So you feel like unless you go through [14:58] your whole ritual of eliminating all [15:00] distractions, things aren't going to go [15:02] well. [15:03] So you're superstitious about letting [15:05] distractions creep into your workflow. [15:07] [snorts] I understand that. [15:08] >> Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So maybe So [15:09] maybe I am. So maybe I am. [15:11] >> She's been a staunch defender of Musk [15:13] Musk. She worked to prevent business [15:15] fallout during all the political [15:17] turmoil. She worked with NASA officials [15:19] and assured them that tensions would [15:20] pass. [15:21] She doesn't love social media social [15:23] media. [15:24] Uh I like his in-person self better than [15:27] his Twitter self. In fact, they feel [15:28] like two different people many of the [15:29] times. [15:30] She has a much different social media [15:32] presence than her boss posting sparingly [15:34] exclusively about SpaceX. She's focused. [15:36] She was raised outside of Chicago. [15:38] >> Wait, you could imagine like she's [15:40] reading X. She's like crying emojis, [15:43] quoting [15:44] six more posts, [15:45] >> [laughter] [15:46] >> crying emojis. [15:47] He's never crying. [15:49] >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. [15:50] >> At the office. He never does that. [15:51] >> He's like pretty locked in actually. [15:53] >> This feels like I feel like I don't know [15:55] this guy. He's always crying. [15:56] >> Yeah. Well, when she first joined [15:58] SpaceX, she was VP of business [15:59] development. So, not in the in like a [16:02] co-founder chief executive type role on [16:05] day one. And so, that probably explains [16:07] a little bit of the equity position and [16:09] how that developed over time. [16:11] But, she was promoted to SpaceX's [16:12] president and chief operating officer in [16:14] 2008, the same year the company won a [16:17] critical $1.6 billion NASA cargo [16:20] transport deal. [16:21] >> So, I looked up she was SpaceX's seventh [16:23] employee. [16:24] >> Wow, that's pretty early. She'd be [16:26] disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a [16:27] settlement on the moon and wasn't [16:29] building a manufacturing facility on the [16:31] moon within 10 years, she showed time. [16:33] She lives on a 1,000 acre ranch [16:36] close to a SpaceX facility in Texas. [16:38] She married a fellow SpaceX engineer and [16:40] has two children. [16:42] She put a Starlink mini terminal on top [16:43] of her car to speak with Musk Musk on [16:46] her 40-minute commute without the call [16:47] dropping. Interesting. [16:49] Uh Jimmy Soni also went back in time and [16:53] told a story in the Wall Street Journal [16:55] about [16:57] the one of the early days in [17:00] in the SpaceX journey, vindication for [17:03] young Elon Musk, he wrote. In 2004, he [17:05] told the Senate that open competition [17:07] would transform the industry. So, this [17:10] was an interesting story. And I and I [17:11] wonder if we could find the actual video [17:13] like on C-SPAN. I don't know if it's out [17:15] there, but in 2004, the Senate held a [17:18] subcommittee meeting gathered on all the [17:21] subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to [17:23] ask a question that now sounds quaint. [17:26] Could America still reach space without [17:28] the space shuttle? Of course, we do it [17:31] like every couple days thanks to SpaceX. [17:32] The shuttle was grounded, 14 astronauts [17:34] had died in two disasters, and the [17:36] hearing room was thick with anxiety of a [17:38] nation that feared it had lost a step. [17:41] Senator Bill Nelson, who had flown on [17:44] the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman [17:46] of his era, warned that without it the [17:49] country might spend years relying on [17:51] Russian rockets. Nobody disagreed. [17:53] Witnesses came in two panels. First, you [17:55] got the NASA team defending the program [17:57] through William Ready, [17:59] its associate administrator for [18:02] administrator for spaceflight, [18:03] accompanied by a retired admiral. After [18:05] NASA smoke spoke, industry did. They got [18:08] a vice president from ATK, another from [18:11] Lockheed Martin, a director from the [18:13] Aerospace Group. Are you looking for a [18:15] for a new a candle, a nuke one way or [18:17] another? [18:18] >> This is brutal for my prediction. [18:20] >> This is brutal for [18:21] >> I'm feeling pretty good. [18:22] >> But it's also brutal for anyone that [18:24] wants drama on the chart because you're [18:26] not getting it today. It's very stable. [18:29] I think this is a very well-managed [18:31] project from start to finish. [18:33] >> now it's just like a trillion-dollar [18:34] company, so it's hard for it to move [18:37] super [18:39] >> I don't know. [18:40] I I I I just think that if you were [18:42] expecting 10% swings up and down [18:45] >> I'm saying the share count is pretty [18:46] small though, right? Like at least that [18:47] they're being traded. [18:49] >> Sure. [18:50] Sure. [18:50] >> Very, very small. The last person on the [18:52] industry panel, you got Lockheed, ATK, [18:55] Aerospace Corp. It's Elon Musk. [18:57] >> AP in the chat. Wait for dip. [18:59] >> [laughter] [19:02] >> It's just nukes down to $5. [19:04] >> [laughter] [19:06] >> So, on the second panel, the industry [19:08] panel, you got heavy hitters from [19:10] Lockheed, other industry folks. You got [19:12] a 32-year-old man who had founded a [19:14] rocket company 2 years earlier, and he'd [19:16] yet to launch anything. It was Elon [19:18] Musk. Uh he had a more immediate [19:20] complaint. NASA had just awarded a rival [19:23] a quarter of a billion dollar contract [19:24] without open competition, and his [19:27] company had protested. Uh so, everyone's [19:30] there to debate like, "Okay, can NASA [19:32] get to space without the shuttle?" And [19:34] he's there being like, "What about my [19:36] contract?" He shows up to this thing to [19:38] testify, and they keep having to try and [19:40] keep him on track. It's a very [19:41] interesting uh way to like get his word [19:44] in edgewise. So, the senators thought [19:46] the matter was off limits. Like, "This [19:47] hearing isn't about that, Elon. It's not [19:49] about your contract." Uh it was under [19:51] government review already, and they kept [19:53] having to steer him back to the day's [19:56] subject, specifically heavy lift, the [19:58] blunt problem of getting big things off [20:00] the planet. "Certainly," he said, [20:02] "although it's worth correcting, I think [20:03] Mr. Reddy misspoke when he said it was [20:06] competitive. It was in fact not [20:08] competitive." The chairman tried again. [20:10] "Let's stay to heavy lift capacity [20:11] issues, Elon. Stay on message." And Elon [20:14] says, "Absolutely." But, his his [20:16] correction was safely on the record. He [20:18] said something the panel wasn't ready to [20:21] hear. "The past few decades," Elon Musk [20:23] told them, "had been a dark age for [20:25] human spaceflight. One costly government [20:27] program after another failed to reach [20:29] the pad. The public's drift from space," [20:32] he argued, "wasn't the apathy of a tired [20:34] people, but the disappointment of a [20:36] hopeful one." It sounded in 2004 like a [20:39] man with a grievance and a half-built [20:41] rocket. He was dismissed. He had made [20:43] the same case the summer before in [20:46] one of his first Capitol Hill [20:47] appearances. At a 2003 hearing on [20:50] commercial spaceflight, there's a [20:52] borrowed concept from the economist [20:54] Joseph Schumpeter, a creative [20:56] destruction. The industry had lost it. [20:58] Not one successful new entrant in four [21:00] decades. Space, Mr. Musk Musk pointed [21:03] out, had barely improved since Apollo, [21:06] while every other technology from [21:07] computing and the internet to [21:09] intercontinental flight had been [21:10] transformed by newcomers and open [21:11] competition. Restore that forcing [21:13] function, he said, and space would [21:14] change no less dramatically. The [21:16] government need only be a customer, not [21:19] a competitor. [21:21] He could be glib. Every launch from [21:22] Vandenberg Air Force Base, he said, was [21:24] required by law to be studied for its [21:26] effect on the local seals at $10,000 a [21:29] flight, even as that population had been [21:32] climbing by nearly 13% in a single year. [21:35] He says, "The seals are doing fine. Let [21:36] me launch." With that population growth [21:38] rate, Mr. Musk observed, "It seems clear [21:41] that if anything, the Vandenberg launch [21:43] activity serves as an aphrodisiac." [21:47] Dropping lines, dropping zingers on [21:49] Capitol Hill. People laughed. It was the [21:51] laughter you gave uh a clever outsider. [21:55] But, we can grade that clever outsider's [21:57] argument now, because more than 20 years [21:59] have passed and the record is in. The [22:01] fear that haunted that 2004 hearing, [22:03] dependence on Moscow, was not ended by [22:05] the shuttle, but by Mr. Musk's company. [22:07] In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two [22:09] astronauts to the space station from [22:12] American soil, [22:13] closing a 9-year gap in which the United [22:15] States paid Russia as much as $90 [22:17] million a seat to hitch a ride, the [22:19] semi-reusable rocket Mr. Musk described [22:22] to skeptical senators became a fleet of [22:24] boosters that land themselves and fly [22:26] again. Today, SpaceX launches more than [22:29] half the world's payloads. On Friday, it [22:31] goes public in what is expected to be [22:33] the largest IPO in history. [22:34] >> You know what's not ordinary? [22:35] >> AF F's [22:37] investment [22:38] >> Yeah. [22:39] >> of $20 million at a $200 million [22:40] valuation into [22:42] >> Yeah. [22:42] >> SpaceX. It did get diluted, but it is [22:45] still I think like the best venture [22:48] investment of all time. Wait, no, I [22:51] thought it was more like it's 50. I [22:53] thought it was more like 80. [22:54] >> I think it's closer to [22:56] 8 trillion cents. [22:58] >> [laughter] [22:59] >> I think he I I he made 8 trillion cents. [23:01] >> Got it. [23:02] >> pennies. [23:03] Uh PT needed a win. [23:04] >> What was the return in basis points? [23:06] >> a win. [23:06] >> [laughter] [23:07] >> He needed a win [23:08] because apparently [23:09] >> What was the return in basis points? [23:11] >> He got out with him on chess.com. Have [23:13] you seen this? [23:13] >> [laughter] [23:14] >> Oh, yeah. Do we need to play this? [23:15] >> We need to play the video of [23:17] a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter [23:20] Thiel's chess.com account, played him, [23:23] and won. [23:24] >> Do you have the video pulled up? [23:25] >> lap. It's in the timeline deeper down [23:27] there. Cuz he found Peter Thiel's chess [23:30] account, played him. [23:32] I mean, we already spoiled it. [23:33] >> On chess.com. I don't know if anybody [23:35] knows about this, but Peter Thiel has a [23:37] chess.com account with his real name, [23:40] under which he's played over 50,000 [23:42] games. [23:43] >> Over 50,000 games. [23:45] >> And the reason I know it's him is first [23:46] of all, his friends [music] are all [23:48] these Silicon Valley and ex-Stanford [23:51] >> [laughter] [23:52] >> founders. And I put his games into a [23:54] database called opening tree, which [23:56] allows me to cross-reference his most [23:59] played moves with [24:01] >> [music] [24:01] >> his public tournament games that he [24:03] played in the '90s. And it's all the [24:05] same stuff. So, our game went E4 E5, [24:08] knight F3 knight F6. I played the [24:10] Stafford Gambit. And on move six, [24:13] >> Always for the Stafford Gambit? What are [24:14] we doing? [24:15] >> Well, no, no. He didn't fall for the [24:16] Gambit, but And I can just see his face [24:18] here. [24:19] >> Okay. [24:19] >> And the point is that when he takes [24:21] back, play bishop takes F2, winning his [24:23] queen by force. [24:24] >> see. [24:25] >> So, most players would just give up. [24:26] They would just resign in this position, [24:28] but [music] Peter Thiel [24:29] >> Does not [24:30] >> never give up. He played on. [24:31] And a few moves later, he made another [24:33] very elementary mistake. He played [24:36] bishop takes A7. And this is the kind of [24:38] move that you see beginners make. Very [24:40] rarely does anybody over 2,000 not see [24:43] that you can just play B6 afterwards, [24:45] which traps the bishop. And I'm just [24:48] going to scoop it up in a few moves. [24:50] Even here, he didn't resign. He kept [24:52] playing on [24:53] >> Never play [24:54] this respectable. [24:56] >> I find this really funny because Peter [24:58] Thiel has a reputation being a sort of [25:00] chess genius. So, I wanted to take this [25:03] opportunity to show the real Peter Thiel [25:06] who falls for basic opening traps. [25:09] >> [laughter] [25:10] >> Elon, never never gives up. [25:13] Proof that they're all ordinary guys. [25:15] Elon never gives up, right? Famous [25:17] picture of him standing there, [25:19] everything's in shambles, never gives [25:20] up. Also makes elementary mistakes [25:22] sometimes, picking a you know, accusing [25:24] the president of things you know, on you [25:28] know, social media, right? Kind of an [25:29] elementary mistake, you know, if you're [25:31] a government contractor, right? [25:34] >> That's right. That's right. [25:36] And so, again, I think PT never gives [25:40] up, makes some elementary mistakes. [25:42] >> There's a lesson there. [25:43] >> Lesson in there. [25:43] >> Lesson in there, for sure. [25:45] Let's pull up this post from Andy [25:47] showing a visual guide to the SpaceX IPO [25:49] while I tell you about Codex. Codex is a [25:52] powerful workspace for getting work done [25:54] with AI agents. Whether you're writing [25:56] code, analyzing data, [music] creating [25:57] content, or automating business [25:59] workflows, Codex helps you move projects [26:01] forward from start to finish. So, what [26:03] is this saying? What's going to happen [26:05] here? [26:05] >> This is technical analysis. [26:07] >> Okay, this is technical analysis. And [26:09] he's saying that it's going to pop on [26:11] IPO day, sell off for three straight [26:14] years, [26:15] and then go to the moon? Is that this is [26:18] that and and every He's basically saying [26:20] that everyone's going to be taking [26:21] victory laps if the stock trades down in [26:25] 2026, 2027, 2028, [laughter] but then [26:28] ultimately they will all be upset. I [26:30] mean, there were there were some crazy [26:33] articles out there that are like the [26:34] rise and fall of Elon Musk a year ago. [26:37] >> Yeah, he can't possibly come back from [26:39] the reputational damage he's done to [26:40] himself. [26:41] >> Yeah, no one's buying the cars. [26:43] >> the cars and it's like, well, they're [26:44] buying the stocks. So, you know, [26:46] [laughter] it's going to be okay, I [26:47] guess. Founder's Fund investment at 200 [26:49] million might be the best venture [26:51] investment in history. A lot of that is [26:54] just the holding to fruition. Like [26:57] because the early investors in Google or [27:00] Microsoft or [27:02] uh Amazon, like a lot of them [27:04] distributed at IPO at like a 5 billion [27:07] valuation. [27:07] >> the founders, right? Bill Gates. [27:09] >> Oh, yeah. He sold too early, right? [27:10] Paper hands. Big [27:11] >> Now, the only thing is I do think Masa [27:13] has him beat. I think I think Masa has [27:14] him beat with Alibaba. Cuz it was like [27:16] 20 million into 70 billion. [27:18] >> Sure. [27:19] >> shorter time horizon. [27:21] >> Masa mocked. Mocked. Anyway, heard in [27:23] the chats. I put $1 million SpaceX order [27:26] through a private bank and just got [27:28] filled. Only 50k, 1/20th of what this [27:32] individual asked for. Most people I [27:34] spoke to have gotten even less. We had [27:35] some folks on the team put in orders for [27:37] 20 shares, 50 shares, 100 shares and [27:40] only get uh a small fraction of that. [27:42] How much did you get, Tyler? [27:43] >> Uh I got 22. [27:45] >> 22 shares, but you requested more? [27:47] >> Yes. And then yeah, I mean we've had a [27:49] lot of people they say [27:50] >> They only got one share. [27:51] >> Brutal. [27:52] >> The one share wonder. That's almost [27:53] worse than zero shares cuz you can see [27:55] it in your portfolio. [27:56] >> Yeah, what if they could give you short [27:57] interest? They're like, you asked for [27:59] five shares, but we give you negative [28:00] one share. [28:02] We give you [28:02] >> [laughter] [28:03] >> We give you the inverse ETF, actually. [28:06] You're It's over for you. [28:08] >> Yeah, I was [28:10] uh [28:11] I was surprised by this. [28:12] >> Yeah. [28:12] >> Given the Given the offers that were [28:13] Given the offers that were flying [28:15] around, I got uh [28:17] uh offered like a $50 million [28:18] allocation. Obviously not uh wasn't [28:21] going to take that down myself, but [28:23] [laughter] [28:24] uh I just um [28:26] >> Wow, just say you're risk off. [28:28] >> Uh no. I But I But I responded to the [28:31] guy and I was like, I don't even know [28:33] I'm not even going to text anyone cuz [28:35] like it feels like this is There's like [28:37] so much allocation available for [28:39] everyone that it's kind of it's just not [28:41] even worth firing off a text. [28:43] >> Yeah. [28:43] >> Um but turns out there uh there was [28:47] There There was a lot more demand than [28:48] supply. [28:49] >> Uh it's it's making its way through [28:51] through the world through the through [28:53] the iMessage DMs. Buddy needs to relax, [28:56] says RJ. See, SpaceX IPO this week. [28:59] Thoughts on SpaceX? SpaceX IPO, what are [29:01] we thinking, boss? Who is this? [29:03] >> It's Kyle. I was your Uber driver 3 [29:05] months ago. [29:06] >> had a funny [29:07] >> This this can't be real. [29:09] Uber drivers don't get your phone number [29:10] anymore. It all happens in the app. This [29:12] is ridiculous. [29:12] >> Yeah, obviously. Maybe they had a good [29:13] conversation, they exchanged numbers. [29:15] >> Yeah, and also these just like like the [29:16] rendering of the text, it doesn't look [29:18] iMessage enough to me. [29:20] I don't believe it, but it's funny. [29:22] >> Nick did get a funny text this morning [29:24] from somebody who is certainly not [29:27] >> a professional [29:28] >> Not a professional investor saying [29:30] texting him advice being like, you want [29:32] to get in, but then you want to get out. [29:34] You want to get in and get out. [29:35] >> Okay. [29:36] >> Get in and get out. Get in and get out. [29:37] Get out. Get in, but then get out by the [29:39] end of the day. And Nick's sitting there [29:40] with his one share. [29:42] >> [laughter] [29:46] >> Uh anyway, [29:47] uh let me tell you about Codex and the [29:50] Road to Olympia expansion pack, uh which [29:53] is [29:54] sponsoring this episode. It takes your [29:57] training split and refactors it into [29:59] production-grade hypertrophy code. No [30:02] more junk volume, no more spaghetti [30:04] programming, no more deprecated rear [30:06] delt functions. Just clean scalable mass [30:09] architecture with automated progressive [30:10] overload, test coverage for calves, and [30:13] one critical warning, build failed, [30:15] insufficient carbs. The Codex Road to [30:17] Olympia expansion pack is available now. [30:20] That's a good one. [30:21] >> It's a good one. Well, John, it's noon. [30:23] >> Yeah. [30:23] >> I think it's time. [30:24] >> Okay. Okay, let's reveal our [30:26] predictions. What was the price per [30:28] share when it [30:30] >> 135. [30:30] >> 135. Okay, so I said 0%. I said 135. I [30:35] said the bankers This is The funniest [30:38] outcome is that the bankers got it [30:39] perfectly correct. The market is [30:42] perfectly efficient. No pop, no [30:44] sell-off, completely flatline on the [30:47] chart. [30:48] >> That's [laughter] a that's a very Coogan [30:49] bit, but like you don't want that. [30:51] >> No, no, you want a 20% pop. [30:53] >> You want a little bit of a pop, and I [30:55] would say they have done that. Like [30:56] they've gotten it very, very, very [30:58] close, right? Currently sitting at a 24% [31:01] pop. [31:01] >> Uh what did you say? What was your [31:03] prediction in percent [31:04] >> I [31:05] was [31:05] >> I had 0%. [31:06] >> two [31:07] >> It's at 24%. [31:08] >> I was too bullish. [31:09] >> You were too bullish. [31:09] >> I [31:10] I was expecting somewhere around $283 [31:14] a share by 2 minutes ago. [31:16] >> $283 [31:17] >> We're currently at 167. [31:18] >> Okay, so what [31:19] what percent is that? [31:21] >> I I thought it would open I thought it [31:22] was going to open above [31:25] >> So you had 33% [31:26] >> I thought it was going to open above 170 [31:28] and then run more. [31:29] >> Okay. [31:29] >> Turns out it opened in the 60s, dropped [31:32] down to around 158, and then built back [31:34] up from there. [31:34] >> Okay. [31:35] >> Uh I was off. [31:36] >> So I had So I had 0%, you had 33%. It's [31:39] at 24%. [31:40] >> just right. I went uh 31%. [31:43] >> 31% 176 176 [31:46] >> So I'm a little high, a little high. [31:47] >> So you got the [31:48] >> But I win. [31:49] >> You win, you win. And And does everyone [31:51] want to know what Tyler wins, what the [31:53] what the prize was today? [31:54] >> Uh [31:54] >> Prize is that whoever wins gets to do [31:57] one extra Ramp ad read. Cuz it's such a [32:00] treat. [32:00] >> No way. [32:01] >> Yeah, and I get to [32:02] >> special. [32:03] >> And I get to I hoard them every day, so [32:04] here you go, Tyler. Feel free to read [32:07] the Ramp ad for the audience. [32:09] >> Ramp. Time is money, save both. Easy to [32:11] use corporate cards, bill payments, [32:12] accounting, and a whole lot more. [32:14] >> All in one place. There we go, that was [32:16] great. I hope you enjoyed that, Tyler. [32:18] Don't get too comfortable with that. [32:20] >> Back to Tyler. [32:21] >> Here we go. [32:23] >> Will Monidis says it brings me no joy to [32:24] report I spent a year wondering why I [32:26] was constantly sleepy and had a low [32:28] sleep score on my Whoop. That was [32:30] totally cured by simply stop wearing the [32:32] Whoop. [32:33] >> [laughter] [32:34] >> By simply stop wearing stopping wearing [32:36] the Whoop. [32:37] >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. [32:38] >> But [32:38] >> Um and X is turning this into a whole [32:41] news story. Ditching Whoop tracker cured [32:43] Financia sleep [laughter] worries. [32:45] >> Financia? Is this Financia? [32:48] That's hilarious. You want to track your [32:49] sleep? Like, are you sleeping? Like, [32:51] think about it. [32:52] >> Yeah, yeah. [32:52] >> Come up with an answer. That's your [32:54] sleep score. [32:54] >> like I never actually care about the [32:57] score. [32:57] >> No. [32:58] >> The score takes care of itself. [32:59] >> Yeah. But with Eight Sleep I like the [33:01] cooling. Like, that's nice. [33:02] >> Well, and with Eight Sleep I'm actually [33:04] interested in like how is my REM versus [33:06] deep sleep trending? Things like that. [33:09] Resting heart rate. All all these other [33:11] things. I never am like, "Oh, what's my [33:13] score today?" [33:13] >> Oh, the score. Unless we were competing. [33:15] Because then that was fun. [33:16] >> It seems like one of those like [33:17] Goodhart's laws. [33:18] >> Yes. [33:19] >> Right? Where if you like, "Oh, I need to [33:21] get a better sleep score." then it's it [33:22] doesn't like work as well. [33:24] >> There's a new challenge that hit the [33:25] timeline. Apple threw down the gauntlet. [33:28] They said they said that no one could [33:30] make Siri their girlfriend. Said Siri [33:32] won't be your AI girlfriend. This is [33:33] from Apple's Craig Federighi. Well, [33:36] >> I'd like to see you try to stop me. [33:38] >> So, Craig Federighi says Apple won't be [33:41] your AI girlfriend. Quite the opposite. [33:44] Because as you may know, [33:45] >> [cheering] [33:46] >> many of the existing chatbots are really [33:47] focused on engagement and sycophancy. [33:50] They want to kind of pull you in. They [33:51] might encourage you to reveal things [33:53] about yourself then use that as a basis [33:55] to establish a connection. We view it [33:57] quite the opposite. I mean, [33:59] >> Very kind of fitting. Like, kind of a [34:01] very 2025 [34:04] uh take. [34:05] >> Yeah. [34:05] >> Which is kind of fitting given their AI [34:07] progress. [34:08] >> But if you try and engage Siri as a [34:10] romantic partner, Siri's not up for [34:11] that. Siri's 100% not into that. And so, [34:15] the rizzlers in the chat [34:16] >> he's just he's just opening himself up [34:18] to get dunked on. Right? Because like [34:19] you can people have jailbroken every [34:21] single model that's ever come out. [34:22] >> it. But also, one of the cool things [34:24] about the Siri AI system is that it will [34:27] in it it it builds a rag [laughter] [34:29] >> Look at the face. It says, "System [34:31] prompt. Don't be the user's girlfriend. [34:35] He's like, yeah, we've we cracked the [34:37] code. This like problem that has been [34:39] playing the AI industry. [34:42] >> Have a great weekend. Congratulations to [34:44] anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO. [34:46] Leave us five stars on Apple podcast, [34:48] sign up for our newsletter at tbpm.com [34:50] and we will see you on Monday. Have a [34:52] great weekend. [34:53] >> We love you. [34:54] >> Goodbye. [34:55] >> Flash bang out.