American Century's Avantis Attracts $150 Billion via Active ETFs

American Century旗下Avantis通过主动型ETF吸引1500亿美元 Avantis Investors借助SEC的Rule 6c-11规则，通过完全透明的主动型ETF提供因子策略，在六年半内资产规模达到1500亿美元。 Jonathan Thomas分享了American Century Investments及其因子ETF部门Avantis Investors背后的故事，后者管理资产规模已迅速增长至1500亿美元。讨论内容涵盖向主动型ETF的转变、除“科技七巨头”（Magnificent Seven）之外更广泛的市场机遇，以及AI投资热潮的五个层面。Thomas还说明了American Century如何将其超40%的分红用于资助Stowers Institute的癌症和遗传学研究，并在最后轻松讲述了出席一场高调名人婚礼的幕后轶事。 American Century Investments 采用独特的使命驱动型所有权结构，将其每年超过 40% 的股息（累计逾 22 亿美元）直接转入 Stowers 医学研究所，全额资助癌症与遗传疾病的基础科学研究。 (9:58) 资管行业格局发生重大逆转，从数十年前 75% 至 80% 的管理机构享有资金净流入，演变为如今约 75% 至 80% 的机构面临净流出，资金正迅速向少数头部平台和指数提供商集中。 (20:23) 旗下品牌 Avantis Investors 依靠基于学术因子的系统化主动投资策略、极低费率及高税收效率的 ETF 架构，在成立仅 6.5 年内将资产管理规模（AUM）从零快速扩张至 1500 亿美元。 (34:34) 在 SEC 2019 年出台 Rule 6c-11 以及行业转向每日完全透明组合的推动下，主动型 ETF 市场规模从 2018 年的 500 亿美元跃升至约 2 万亿美元，占年内 ETF 净流入总额的约 40%。 (29:54)

Jonathan Thomas, CEO and Chairman of American Century Investments, argues that the asset management industry and public equity markets are undergoing twin regime shifts: investor capital is rapidly consolidating into transparent, low-cost active ETFs, while the AI bull market is transitioning from hardware infrastructure creators to enterprise adopters. Asset Management Shifts Toward Platform-Centric Distribution (16:00) The asset management industry has shifted dramatically from the direct-to-consumer mutual fund era of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the dot-com crash, retail investors migrated toward financial advisors, and distribution is now evolving toward technology platforms, direct indexing, and automated models. Thomas notes that industry net flows have inverted: whereas 75% to 80% of asset managers enjoyed net positive inflows decades ago through traditional media campaigns, roughly 75% to 80% now experience net outflows as capital concentrates into a handful of scalable platform providers. While digital platforms enhance portfolio customization—such as automated tax-loss harvesting and custom indexing—Thomas emphasizes that eliminating human financial advisors introduces behavioral vulnerabilities. Retail investors still require human guidance to manage emotional panic and prevent ill-timed exits during market drawdowns. Systematic Strategies Fuel Active ETF Expansion (29:54) Active ETFs have expanded from $50 billion (1% to 2% of the ETF market) in 2018 to approximately $2 trillion (around 11% of the market), capturing roughly 40% of year-to-date inflows. Growth was catalyzed by the SEC's 2019 adoption of Rule 6c-11, which eliminated the requirement for custom exemptive relief and standardized daily portfolio transparency. Thomas acknowledges that American Century's initial attempt to launch semi-transparent active ETFs failed due to hedging difficulties, leading to a swift pivot toward fully transparent structures. Capitalizing on this opening, American Century launched Avantis Investors in 2019 under CIO Eduardo Repetto. Operating systematic, academically grounded factor strategies rather than concentrated stock picking, Avantis scaled from scratch to $150 billion in assets under management in 6.5 years. By offering diversified building blocks with an average expense ratio of roughly 26 basis points (delivering historical outperformance averaging approximately 280 basis points across initial funds), American Century became the fourth-largest active ETF manager in the United States. Market Leadership Broadens to AI Enterprise Adopters (48:56) The equity market is transitioning from an initial infrastructure buildout phase to an enterprise adoption phase. In the initial cycle, market gains were concentrated in "creators and enablers"—such as semiconductor producers and hyperscalers. However, market breadth is expanding as traditional companies in industrials, healthcare, utilities, and financial services implement AI applications to capture productivity and earnings gains. Macro indicators reflect this dispersion: consensus forecasts project overall S&P 500 earnings growth of 23.2% year-over-year, with non-Magnificent Seven companies expected to grow earnings by 20.9% and over half of index components gaining more than 10% year-to-date. Concurrently, bellwether hardware plays like Nvidia have seen forward valuation multiples compress toward 18 times earnings amid competitive pressures and scrutiny over circular financing among tech startups. Thomas also highlights demographic tailwinds, noting that shrinking global birth rates and 68 million aging U.S. baby boomers make AI and robotics vital to sustaining economic output. Purpose-Driven Ownership and Foundational Research Funding (66:17) American Century operates under a corporate structure created by founder Jim Stowers Jr., who transferred equity ownership to an endowment after surviving cancer. As a privately held manager overseeing nearly $350 billion, the firm directs more than 40% of its annual dividends—totaling $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion to date—directly to the Stowers Institute for Medical Research. Thomas notes that this ownership model serves as an effective tiebreaker in competitive institutional finals when pitching to pension and public retirement boards. The Stowers Institute conducts open foundational scientific research focused on evolutionary biology and disease resistance rather than short-term commercial drug pipelines. Discoveries include isolating regenerative stem cell mechanisms in Planarian flatworms and identifying bone-loss reversal pathways in African killifish (licensed to Amgen for osteoporosis therapies). The institute also shares all research publicly, including failed hypotheses, to prevent duplicate scientific expenditures globally. The broader market trajectory depends on whether corporate productivity gains among AI adopters can sustain earnings growth as capital expenditures normalize, while asset managers face ongoing consolidation pressures if they cannot offer transparent, cost-efficient ETF wrappers.

American Century Investments 首席执行官 Jonathan Thomas 与节目嘉宾探讨了资产管理行业的深刻变迁，指出资金正加速从传统共同基金向低成本、高透明度的主动型 ETF 集中；同时，美股市场正从极度依赖少数 AI 底层硬件龙头，逐步转向由传统行业采纳技术提升生产力驱动的广泛盈利扩张周期。 资管格局剧变与主动ETF的制度突破 (29:54) 在过去二三十年间，资产管理行业的资金流向发生了戏剧性的逆转。Jonathan Thomas 指出，20 世纪 90 年代约有 75% 至 80% 的资产管理公司能够实现资金净流入，而在分销渠道平台化、费率压力加大以及注意分散的今天，约 75% 至 80% 的机构正面临净赎回窘境。资金与市场份额正迅速向少数头部平台和具备差异化产品能力的机构汇聚。 这一趋势在交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）领域尤为显著。2018 年美股主动型 ETF 规模仅约 500 亿美元（占 ETF 总规模的 1% 至 2%），如今已攀升至近 2 万亿美元（占比约 11%），并捕获了年内约 40% 的新增流入。推动该爆发的核心催化剂是美国证监会（SEC）于 2019 年通过的 Rule 6c-11 规则（ETF 规则），该规则取消了耗时繁琐的个案豁免审批流程，标准化了发行机制。Thomas 回忆，American Century 最初曾尝试推出半透明（semi-transparent）的主动型基金以防止抢先交易，但因对冲困难而在市场上无人问津；管理层随后迅速转向 100% 完全透明模式，将每日持仓透明度转化为顾问客户的信任优势，奠定了规模扩张的基础。 系统化因子策略推动Avantis高速崛起 (24:52) American Century 旗下独立品牌 Avantis Investors 自 2019 年由首席投资官 Eduardo Repetto 牵头从零启动，在仅 6 年半时间内资产管理规模便突破 1500 亿美元。与传统依赖选股择时的集中型主动投资或单纯跟踪大盘的被动指数不同，Avantis 采取介于两者之间的系统化因子投资框架，以低成本、高度分散的方式系统性收割风险溢价。 在定价与业绩方面，Avantis 初始产品线的平均费率约为 26 个基点，仅比被动类别的平均水平高出约 7 个基点，但其初始产品组合相较基准指数取得了约 280 个基点的历史平均净超额收益。其最初发行的 5 只基金规模均已超过 100 亿美元。面对管理规模达 8000 亿至 9000 亿美元的传统因子投资巨头 DFA（Dimensional Fund Advisors），Avantis 凭借 ETF 包装打破了传统共同基金的准入准批限制，通过高度一致的跨资产类别因子逻辑帮助财务顾问简化配置，助力母公司跃居全美第四大主动型 ETF 发行机构。 美股广度拓宽与AI红利向采纳者扩散 (48:56) 在宏观与美股市场层面，标普 500 指数呈现出强劲的基本面韧性。最新季度标普 500 成分股整体盈利预期同比增长 23.2%，即使剔除“七巨头”（Magnificent Seven），剩余成分股的盈利增幅仍达 20.9%，且 11 个行业部门中有 10 个录得正增长，其中科技行业以 65% 的增速领跑。年内超过 50% 的标普 500 成分股涨幅超过 10%，显示市场正从极端集中走向广泛普涨。 Thomas 认为，AI 投资叙事正在经历由“创造者与赋能者”（如半导体芯片与超大规模云厂商）向“采纳者”（将 AI 技术整合进业务的传统行业）的交接过渡。尽管市场上存在对科技巨头、风投机构与初创云服务商之间循环融资（circular financing）风险的担忧，但若传统企业能够通过部署 AI 显著提升运营效率并释放实际业绩，涨势便能从少数硬件巨头有效传递至标普 500 的其余 493 只股票。结合黄仁勋关于 AI“五层蛋糕”（底层水电散热、芯片、基础设施、大模型及顶层应用）的划分，顶层应用正在工业、公用事业、金融及医疗健康等领域产生实质性价值，恰好在全球老龄化与人口拐点背景下对冲劳动力短缺。 医疗科研反哺：独特的商业与慈善所有权模式 (66:17) American Century 目前管理着近 3500 亿美元资产，其背后拥有资产管理行业罕见的所有权结构。公司由 Jim Stowers Jr. 于 1958 年创立，在 20 世纪 90 年代后期 Stowers 夫妇双双确诊癌症后，二人将几乎全部净资产转入设立了斯托斯医学研究所（Stowers Institute for Medical Research），使研究所成为资产管理公司的主要控股方。公司每年将超过 40% 的税后股息直接划拨给该研究所，累计捐赠资金已达 22 亿至 23 亿美元。 Thomas 同时兼任资管公司与研究所的董事长，他表示这一非营利架构不仅免去了上市公司的季度短期业绩压力，更在机构竞标中成为决定胜负的“最后胜负手”。在科研方向上，研究所不追求短期的化合物商业化，而是深入研究进化生物学与再生机制。例如，Alejandro Sánchez Alvarado 博士领导的研究团队解析了涡虫（Planarian）利用单一干细胞再生整个生物体的机理；研究所针对非洲鳉鱼骨骼再生的科研成果已被授权予生物制药巨头安进（Amgen）以开发逆转骨质疏松的药物。此外，该机构公开所有科研结果乃至失败实验记录，以此避免全球科研资源的重复浪费。 尽管 AI 硬件层的高强度资本支出与循环投资模式引发了部分市场人士对“盈利泡沫”的审视，但当前市场广度的拓宽高度依赖于传统行业能否借助技术实现长期的生产力突破与利润兑现；若实际应用的降本增效进展不及预期，科技巨头以外的盈利增长能否持续支撑当前估值仍有待观察。

## Background 本期视频由 YouTube 频道 The Compound 于 2026 年 7 月 23 日发布。在第 251 期节目中，主持人 Downtown Josh Brown 与 Sean Russo 邀请了 American Century Investments 首席执行官兼董事会主席 Jonathan Thomas，共同探讨 Avantis Investors 的崛起、主动型 ETF 的爆发趋势、宏观经济与 AI 投资风口，以及将数十亿美元利润输送给斯托尔斯医学研究所（Stowers Institute）的独特所有权结构，最后还独家揭秘了泰勒·斯威夫特与特拉维斯·凯尔西的世纪婚礼现场。 ## TL;DR 节目围绕资管行业的范式转移展开，详细复盘了 Avantis 如何凭借系统化因子哲学、低费率与全透明结构在 6.5 年内成长为 1500 亿美元巨头，并分析了主动型 ETF 在全行业掀起的“排位重新洗牌”。随后，嘉宾结合黄仁勋的“AI 蛋糕五层模型”剖析了市场从底层芯片向应用层落地的盈利扩散逻辑，驳斥了短期“盈利泡沫”的悲观叙事。此外，Jonathan 动情讲述了创始人吉姆·斯托维斯裸捐身家、让公司逾 40% 分红持续造血支持癌症与基因基础科研的使命驱动模式，并在尾声以亲历者视角还原了误把泰勒·斯威夫特婚礼短信当垃圾信息拉黑、再到麦迪逊广场花园见证众星云集童话仪式的爆笑与感动幕后。 ## Atmosphere & style 全片节奏张弛有度，既有老华尔街人拆解行业格局时专业敏锐的硬核交锋，又充盈着好友闲谈般的插科打诨与幽默松弛感。Josh Brown 的犀利追问与 Jonathan 稳健睿智的掌舵者气场碰撞出极具深度的商业洞察，而在切入抗癌基础科研的利他主义以及婚礼现场 300 磅橄榄球硬汉集体拭泪的情节时，对话又迅速沉淀出真挚动人的共情力量。整场对谈听来如同坐在纽约老式咖啡馆壁炉旁，一边聆听数百亿美元资管棋局的推演，一边吃着全美顶流八卦的独家甜点，兼具思想穿透力与极高的沉浸娱乐感。 ## Bulletin - [29:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1791s) 美世纪投资（American Century Investments）旗下系统化主动品牌 Avantis 自 2019 年创立以来，仅用 6.5 年即突破 1500 亿美元管理规模，年内约 40% 的新增 ETF 资金持续流向主动型 ETF 赛道。 - [31:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1864s) 主动型 ETF 市场规模自 2018 年的 500 亿美元飙升至逼近 2 万亿美元，整体渗透率升至 11%；行业增长驱动力主要来自嘉信等券商推行的 ETF 零佣金政策及 SEC 6c-11 规则松绑。 - [59:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3589s) 美股市场广度正从科技七巨头向标普 493 扩散，AI 投资重心也正从重资产、高 Capex 的芯片和基础设施底层，逐步转移向高附加值的终端应用采纳层。 - [01:06:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3975s) 美世纪投资采用独特的慈善股权设计，累计将逾 20 亿美元的公司股息分红直接注入斯托斯医学研究所（Stowers Institute），持续资助癌症与基因退行性疾病的前沿基础科学研究。 ## Key takeaways - [19:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1173s) 资管行业格局已从二三十年前 80% 机构录得净申购，彻底反转为当下近八成机构面临持续净流出的缩量竞争与存量博弈困境。 - [21:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1290s) 理财顾问盲目配置被动指数基金虽然提供了短期的“职业安全”，但容易引发终端客户对投顾服务增量价值的严重拷问。 - [26:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1612s) Avantis 凭借统一的跨资产学术因子哲学，以仅比传统被动指数基金高 7 个基点的费率，达成了过去五年年均 280 个基点的超额斩获（Alpha）。 - [32:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1963s) 投资人并非抛弃主动管理，而是拒绝传统共同基金的高费率、低透明度与容量锁死机制；全透明主动型 ETF 成为吸收增量资金的核心载体。 - [37:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=2278s) 相较于巨头 DFA 建立在共同基金上的封闭审核壁垒与自相残杀负担，Avantis 凭借轻装上阵、敏捷度及永续扩容的底层设计实现了弯道超车。 - [50:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3006s) 空头对美股的质疑正从“估值泡沫”转向“盈利泡沫”，英伟达等龙头的估值倍数反而因市场担忧自研芯片竞争与循环融资隐患而出现压缩。 - [59:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3589s) 黄仁勋的“AI 蛋糕五层模型”清晰界定了投资逻辑：底层物理基建与芯片层属于高资本支出，而真正长期的生产力红利将由医疗、金融等顶层应用采纳者兑现。 - [01:04:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3854s) 全球主要经济体面临的人口见顶与老龄化危机，客观上与 AI 驱动的生产力指数级抬升形成了历史性的互补对冲。 - [01:12:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4320s) 斯托斯医学研究所打破商业制药追求短期化合转化的局限，通过逆向工程大自然生物的免疫与再生机制（如非洲鳉鱼与涡虫），为器官修复和骨质疏松逆转开辟新路径。 - [01:09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4161s) 将商业利润与生命科学深度绑定的使命驱动架构，不仅避免了华尔街上市公司的短期盈利考核压力，更成为美世纪投资在大型机构竞标中难以撼动的决胜差异化壁垒。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=0s) 录制前闲聊：纽约空气质量与怀旧往事 节目开场在轻松的闲聊中展开。Josh Brown、Sean Russo 与嘉宾 Jonathan Thomas 谈到了纽约近期糟糕的空气质量，空气中弥漫着来自加拿大森林野火的浓烟与颗粒物。大家调侃呼吸这样的空气简直就像在吸入致癌物。Jonathan 提到他读到过的一则数据：如今纽约这种级别的空气污染，在 20 世纪 80 年代其实一年要发生大概 60 次。 这一对比引发了众人对过去生活环境的回忆。年轻一代可能无法想象，当年的空气污染主要源自大量工厂排放以及无处不在的二手烟。Jonathan 感叹道，现在的年轻人从未经历过可以在客机机舱里抽烟的时代；而所谓的“无烟区”实际上与吸烟区仅相隔一步之遥，而且完全没有物理隔离或独立的空气循环。Josh 笑着吐槽道：“在这张座椅上不能抽，但移到旁边那个座位就可以抽了”，调侃当年对吸烟区的划分简直毫无科学逻辑可言。 ### [01:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=63s) 传奇的 Lake Tahoe 名人高尔夫锦标赛 话题随后转向了 Jonathan Thomas 掌舵的世纪美洲投资（American Century Investments）。Josh 表示自己提前做足了功课，对该机构背后的斯托斯医学研究所（Stowers Institute for Medical Research）深感震撼，并准备了许多硬核的科学问题。接着，Josh 问起 Jonathan 每年到访纽约的频率（大约一年 6 次，每隔一个月左右来一次），并顺势切入了一项极具声誉的年度盛事——美国世纪锦标赛（American Century Championship）。 Jonathan 笑着分享了一个日常趣事：每当他身穿印有“American Century”标志的衬衫外出时，心里总暗暗期待路人跑过来说“我把所有钱都投在你们家了”；然而现实中，大家脱口而出的第一句话永远是：“我太喜欢你们办的那个高尔夫锦标赛了！” 这项赛事拥有深厚的历史与惊人的发展历程： - **历史渊源**：赛事最早由五十铃（Isuzu）在 37 年前创办，早期只是个“热狗加薯片”级别的小型活动。American Century 在 27 年前正式接手冠名。 - **早期冷清到一票难求**：Jonathan 回忆自己刚加入公司去现场时，由于赛事鲜为人知，甚至不得不花钱雇人站在南太浩湖（South Lake Tahoe）街头免费派发门票，吸引路人入场。 - **火爆盛况与“挖地道进场”**：如今，该赛事周四、周五和周六的门票全线售罄。由于一票难求，甚至有狂热粉丝带着铁锹试图在围栏下方挖地道溜进球场，以至于主办方不得不在夜间沿赛场外围部署安保巡逻。 - **巨大的全美影响力**：整场赛事现场吸引了超过 85,000 名观众入场，电视观看人数突破 500 万，社交媒体曝光量超过 40 亿次，媒体报道提及量达到惊人的 170 亿次。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: American Century Championship Evolution accDescr: Diagram showing the history and scale growth of American Century Championship golf tournament. subgraph EarlyStage["赛事起源与早期"] A["37 年前由 Isuzu 创办<br/>（热狗与薯片级小活动）"] --> B["27 年前 American Century 接手<br/>（知名度低，街头免费派票）"] end subgraph ModernBoom["如今的火爆盛况"] B --> C["连续多日全线门票售罄<br/>（球迷自备铁锹挖地道进场）"] C --> D["85,000+ 现场观众<br/>500 万+ 电视观众"] D --> E["40 亿+ 社媒曝光<br/>170 亿+ 媒体报道点击"] end ``` ### [03:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=184s) 名流云集：顶尖运动员与全方位品牌效应 谈及为什么人们对这场赛事如此趋之若鹜，Jonathan 解释说，球场上大约有 12 位具备争冠水准的顶级高尔夫选手，其余 78 位参赛者则是来自各大体育界和娱乐界的超级巨星与殿堂级传奇。太浩湖（Lake Tahoe）依山傍水、空间相对有限，反而营造出一种极为亲密随和的氛围，球迷可以近距离与偶像面对面交谈，加上七月份太浩湖堪称完美的气候，使它成了不可替代的夏日狂欢。 在今年的参赛阵容中，美国男子冰球队的选手大放异彩，包括效力于佛罗里达黑豹队的 Tkachuk 兄弟，以及上演经典挑杆过人进球的 Matt Boldy。此外，NBA 超级巨星 Stephen Curry 和高尔夫球技精湛、长年位列争冠第一梯队的前 NFL 四分卫 Tony Romo 也如约登场。 Jonathan 坦言，这项锦标赛实际上是公司全年在品牌建设上最核心的投入，几乎倾注了所有可支配的市场营销预算。尽管 American Century 的体量并非行业最大，但凭借该赛事的全国电视转播（周五由 Peacock 流媒体直播，周六和周日则直接登上 NBC 全国主频道），其品牌知名度与高级感（Luxury Awareness）达到了“以小搏大、超常发挥”（punch way above our weight）的效果。Josh 戏称自己查了垃圾邮件箱也没找到邀请函，并提议 Ritholtz Wealth 以后也该赞助一个，最后当场与 Jonathan 约定明年 7 月 6 日至 7 日一定要亲自前往太浩湖赴会。 - **赛制与转播规格**：为期 3 天无淘汰制（No Cut），周五在 Peacock 平台转播，周末两天黄金时段直接登陆 NBC 全国广播网。 - **顶级行业社交场**：除了各路跨界名流外，该赛事早已演变成全美资产管理与金融投资行业的社交盛宴，聚集了大量同行高管与重要决策者。 ### [07:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=421s) 赞助商插播与第 251 期节目正式开场 在轻松愉快的开场闲聊后，Josh 带来了赞助商 Public 的播报。他指出当下的投资平台往往走两个极端：要么是界面仿佛停留在 1997 年的老牌券商，要么是将投资搞得像体育博彩的娱乐化新平台。而 Public 专注于为严肃投资者提供现代化的交易工具，不仅涵盖股票、期权、债券与加密资产，更将精力倾注在人工智能（AI）领域，允许用户创建能够监控市场、管理现金和自动执行交易策略的 AI Agent。 播报结束后，Josh 正式宣布《The Compound and Friends》第 251 期开录，并隆重介绍了本期的重磅首秀嘉宾——American Century Investments 首席执行官、总裁兼董事会主席 Jonathan Thomas。Josh 幽默地拿 Jonathan 的名字与知名演员 Jonathan Taylor Thomas 开了个玩笑，随后向观众正式介绍了这位在资产管理界掌舵近二十年的领军人物。 - **Jonathan Thomas 的资历背景**：自 2007 年起担任总部位于堪萨斯城的 American Century Investments 首席执行官兼总裁，并自 2025 年起兼任董事会主席；管理资产规模超过 3000 亿美元。此前曾担任摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）投资管理部门全球首席运营官（Global COO）、摩根士丹利信托公司总裁以及投资管理首席风险官（CRO）。 - **独特的公司架构**：American Century 拥有极具慈善色彩的所有权结构，将公司大部分利润持续输送给斯托斯医学研究所，用于支持针对癌症和遗传性疾病的尖端科学研究。 - **本期常驻嘉宾**：同时在节目中首次亮相的还有观众熟悉的 Sean Russo。 ### [09:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=565s) 节目开场与嘉宾背景介绍 在录制现场，Sean Russo 作为 Ritholtz Wealth Management 的投资分析师临时顶替 Michael Batnick 的位置。Josh Brown 调侃 Michael 正在“四处游玩”（实则与家人度假），而 Sean 在公司已有四年半资历，平时支持投资委员会与顾问团队，并与 Josh 共同撰写专注于市场最强上升趋势个股的专栏。 话题随即转向本期特邀嘉宾——American Century Investments 首席执行官 Jonathan Thomas。面对许多仅通过冠名名人高尔夫球锦标赛了解该品牌的观众，Jonathan 介绍了公司的核心定位： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: American Century Investments 核心架构 accDescr: 展示 American Century 的三大支柱与旗下三大品牌 subgraph Pillars ["三大核心支柱"] P1["私有制企业<br/>(无季度财报压力，专注长期)"] P2["纯资产管理公司<br/>(无大银行/保险公司的利益冲突)"] P3["使命驱动型组织<br/>(超40%股息支持医学研究)"] end subgraph Brands ["旗下三大业务品牌"] B1["American Century Investments"] B2["Avantis Investors"] B3["Income America"] end Pillars --> Brands ``` - **近3500亿美元管理规模**：公司是一家纯粹的资产管理机构（Pure Play），完全私有制运作，不受上市公开市场的季度盈利压力掣肘，能进行长期再投资。 - **独特的使命驱动结构**：每年将超过 40% 的公司分红直接捐赠给斯托尔斯医学研究所（Stowers Institute for Medical Research），资助 500 多名顶尖科学家攻克癌症和基因疾病。这种“为人类福祉而战”的模式赋予员工极强的职业自豪感与受托责任心。 - **旗下三大品牌协同**：包括传统核心 American Century Investments、系统化主动投资先锋 Avantis Investors 以及提供退休收入解决方案的 Income America。 --- ### [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=738s) Jonathan Thomas 的职业轨迹与运营思维 回顾自己的职业生涯，Jonathan 曾先后任职于 Fidelity、Bank of America 和 Morgan Stanley，于 2005 年加入 American Century，并在短短两年后的 2007 年升任 CEO。他在三十多岁时意识到金融从业的本质是“帮助他人”，此后便将工作视作助人而非单纯打工。原本与妻子均来自美国中西部的他，从纽约返回中西部不仅顺应了家庭根基，也迎来了执掌大型机构的契机。 与很多出身销售“吸金王”（Rainmaker）或明星基金经理的同行不同，Jonathan 早期担任 CFO 与 COO，从运营和风险管理一路走来： - **权衡取舍（Trade-offs）的艺术**：基金经理的精力主要放在单只投资组合的优化与风险调整后收益上，而首席运营官（COO）则需要在人才、底层技术架构、监管合规、资本分配等多维度职能部门之间做战略权衡。 - **CEO 的本质是资本配置**：领导整个组织的关键在于认清“哪里该重投，哪里该缩减，什么对客户才真正重要”。广泛跨业务线统筹的经历，赋予了他处理长周期资源调配的全局视野。 --- ### [15:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=908s) 资产管理行业四十年演进：从直面客户到顾问再到平台 拥有超过 40 年金融从业经历的 Jonathan 见证了资管生态的三波核心范式转移。Josh 戏称他在 80 年代置身于“那个被拍成电影的狂野华尔街”，而 Jonathan 则提炼了客户关系所有权的变迁规律： ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 资管行业客户关系所有权变迁 accDescr: 描述从 80 年代至今客户关系的三次范式转移 subgraph P1 ["1980s–1990s：直连时代"] M1["资产管理公司"] -->|"直接持有客户关系"| C1["散户投资者"] end subgraph P2 ["2000s：投顾主导时代"] M2["资产管理公司"] --> A2["独立财务顾问 (RIAs)"] -->|"信任建立与行为辅导"| C2["高净值/个人客户"] end subgraph P3 ["当下与未来：平台化时代"] M3["策略/产品供应商"] --> PL3["数字化/AI退休平台"] -->|"分发与交互"| C3["终端用户"] end P1 ==>|互联网泡沫破裂| P2 P2 ==>|技术与工具演进| P3 ``` - **第一阶段（1980–1990年代）：资管公司垄断直销关系**。散户直接同基金公司开户，彼时市场“三巨头”为 Fidelity Magellan Fund、American Century Ultra Fund 以及 Janus 20 Fund。在 1987 至 2000 年的长牛市中，散户在鸡尾酒会上炫耀 80% 甚至 104% 的收益率并频繁自主切换基金，每个人都自认是投资天才。 - **第二阶段（2000年代）：科技泡沫破裂催生顾问（Advisor）中介化**。股市暴跌让个人投资者意识到专业协助的必要性。资管公司不得不完成战略大转向，从直销个人转变为赋能外部理财顾问（RIAs），协助顾问为客户服务。 - **第三阶段（当前）：分发向平台（Platforms）与 AI 转移**。退休管理系统与人工智能助手开始占据前端客户交互。然而 Jonathan 警告，这一趋势“很可能以糟糕的结果收场”，因为财富管理的核心是人际信任与行为纠偏——当市场崩盘恐慌蔓延时，散户需要的是一个有血有肉的专业顾问告诫他们切勿割肉离场，而非冷冰冰的算法。 - **市场看短期，技术定长期**：每年市场行情的波动大多同步影响所有机构，但拉长到五年、十年以上，决定资管公司生死的并非市场贝塔，而是能否正确运用技术进行产品交付模式的创新，使投资策略突破传统开放式共同基金的容器限制。 ### [19:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1173s) 资管格局裂变：从共同基金狂欢到净流出困局与 ETF 转制 资产管理行业正在经历一场底层逻辑的技术与形态迁移。许多机构正试图将传统的纯主动型策略打包转制为 ETF，甚至更进一步对接投顾广泛使用的定制指数化（Custom Indexing）工具。在这些新兴科技平台上，资管机构将自身的“独门秘方”（secret sauce）输出为独立持仓而非基金份额，使得财务顾问无需配置单一基金，即可直接穿透持有底层股票，并在账户层面上执行税收损失收割（Tax-loss Harvesting）或将客户高度集中的单一持仓平滑分散化。这种转变的本质，是资管品牌如何将自身投资能力平移到当下正迅速崛起的科技与分销平台上。 然而，将既有共同基金直接换壳为主动型 ETF 往往伴随着剧烈的内部自相残杀（cannibalism）。美世纪投资（American Century Investments）首席执行官乔纳森·托马斯（Jonathan Thomas）指出，与行业热议的主动型 ETF 份额机制相比，分销渠道的基本盘已经发生了根本性倒转。回顾二三十年前的资管黄金时代，全行业约 75% 到 80% 的资产管理公司都能录得正向净申购（申购量大于赎回量）；而到了今天，这一比例被完全颠倒——全行业有近八成的机构面临持续的净流出窘境。在一个资金池严重内卷、分销渠道成为生死线的存量甚至缩量市场中，产品想要逆势突围变得空前困难。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 资管行业30年资金流向格局演变 accDescr: 示意图展示了资管行业从20-30年前80%净流入转变为如今80%净流出的极端分化状态。 subgraph Past["20至30年前：普惠型红利期"] P1["75% - 80% 资管机构"] -->|持续净流入| P2["行业普遍获利<br/>电视广告驱动规模"] end subgraph Present["当下现状：马太效应与缩量博弈"] C1["75% - 80% 资管机构"] -->|持续净赎回| C2["产品自相残杀<br/>被迫转向ETF与定制指数"] C3["头部巨头与创新品牌"] -->|揽获绝大部分增量| C4["贝莱德 / 先锋 / Avantis"] end ``` --- ### [21:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1290s) 媒介碎片化、马太效应与“职业安全”的被动投资陷阱 乔什·布朗（Josh Brown）感慨道，90 年代末的共同基金行业简直是一场“流动性的盛宴”，只要资管公司肯花钱在 NBC 或 CBS 的 NCAA“最终四强”（Final Four）转播期间砸几条广告，源源不断的新增资金就会像着了魔一样涌入申购通道。但如今，公众的注意力已被极度碎片化，过去签下一两张大额支票就能买断全民心智的日子一去不复返，品牌必须跨越成百上千个分散的内容平台才能激起一点水花。更深刻的变化来自科技与算法对财富马太效应的极致放大——赢家通吃演化成了“类固醇加持下的帕累托定律”（Pareto principle on steroids）。前一天贝莱德（BlackRock）刚公布季报，其管理资产总规模（AUM）竟然同比暴增 20%，令市场惊呼巨象如何还能这般狂奔。 乔纳森·托马斯对此分析，巨头规模的膨胀首先得益于极具倾斜性的贝塔（Beta）顺风：过去五年里，即便算上 2022 年美股暴跌 18% 的熊市周期，标普大盘的年化复合涨幅依然高达约 16%，市值自然膨胀贡献了绝大部分增量，增量资金流入只是锦上添花。与此同时，被动指数投资长期被散户与投顾误贴上了“安全”的标签。乔什·布朗犀利地指出，这种“安全”从根本上讲并不是指终端投资者的本金不会承受市场波动的风险，而是面向投资顾问的一道**“职业安全”护城河（career safety）**——投顾如果给客户满仓配置 Vanguard 或 iShares，在牛市中就能死死贴紧基准指数，绝不会因为落后大盘而被客户愤怒质问“你到底在搞什么鬼？”。 然而，这种安全牌正迅速走向反面。当市场行至中后程，客户打开自己的投资组合对账单，赫然发现里面除了贝莱德就是先锋领航时，便会顺理成章地发出致命拷问：“那我每年付你管理费是为什么？你到底为我做了什么额外的工作？”（"What do I need you for? How hard are you working for me?"）。正是在这种投顾急需向客户证明自身专业价值、却又不敢承担过度跑输基准风险的夹缝中，美世纪旗下的 Avantis 找到了开疆拓土的黄金切入点。 --- ### [25:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1507s) 零佣金催化剂与 Avantis 的“主动-被动”折中破局点 Avantis 并没有照搬传统主动选股集中押注老路，而是精准地在纯主动与被动投资之间找到了折中地带：提供兼具**低费率、高分散度**特征的基础资产拼图（building blocks），在严控跟踪误差的前提下为客户争取超越基准的阿尔法收益。该产品线于 2019 年正式亮相，初创期美世纪采取了极为坦诚的“双轨制”，同时发行了收费标准分毫不差的共同基金与 ETF。然而，市场用真金白银迅速完成了选择——超过 90% 的新增增量资金径直涌入了 ETF 渠道。 投顾群体之所以毫不犹豫地全面倒向 ETF，除了行业耳熟能详的日内高流动性、税收效率与低费率优势外，还有一个常被舆论忽视的行业里程碑事件：嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）破天荒地率先推行了“ETF 零交易佣金”政策。紧接着，富达（Fidelity）与 TD Ameritrade 在一两周内迅速跟进。这一底层清算平台的制度颠覆彻底引爆了投顾的采纳速度——投资顾问可以毫无心理负担地向客户承诺，买入清单上的全套 ETF 组合不需要支付任何摩擦成本与交易手续费，交易通道的彻底免费为系统化 ETF 投资铺平了高速公路。 --- ### [26:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1612s) 7 个基点的溢价换取 280 个基点超额收益：Avantis 的体系化打法 在具体财务表现与风险收益比上，乔纳森·托马斯列举了 Avantis 最具说服力的一组实操硬核数据： * **极低的管理费率门槛**：自 2019 年发行至今满五年的 5 只旗舰产品，平均管理费仅为 **26 个基点（0.26%）**。 * **微小的超额费率成本**：在晨星（Morningstar）同类风格分类中，纯被动指数基金的平均费率为 19 个基点；这意味着投资者仅多付出了 **7 个基点** 的微小代价，就买到了博取超额回报的入场券。 * **惊人的年化阿尔法表现**：这批产品五年来相对业绩基准的平均年化超额收益高达 **280 个基点（2.80%）**。“用每年多花 7 个基点的微小代价，换取年均 280 个基点的超额斩获”，乔什·布朗直言这一风险收益回报比在资产管理界堪称“非同寻常”（remarkable）。 * **庞大的管理体量**：这 5 只先锋产品目前的单只管理规模**全部突破了 100 亿美元**，旗下更有累计 10 只产品规模跨过了 10 亿美元门槛。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Avantis 统一投资哲学带来的顾问采纳飞轮 accDescr: 流程图展示了统一投资哲学如何促使投顾从单只产品采购升级为全套组合采购，最终实现规模飞轮。 A["单一核心投资哲学<br/>(贯穿大盘、小盘、新兴市场)"] --> B["投顾理解成本极低<br/>(无需掌握多套选股理论)"] B --> C["投顾向终端客户<br/>清晰顺畅沟通交付"] C --> D["单次配置3至4只产品<br/>(由点及面构建全套底仓)"] D --> E["规模非线性激增<br/>(5只产品均超百亿美元)"] E --> A ``` 除了出色的数字指标，Avantis 能够迅速做大做强的终极杀招在于**跨资产类别高度一致的投资哲学**。无论是美股大盘成长、小盘价值还是新兴市场资产，团队自始至终贯彻着完全同一套因子加权与系统化筛选逻辑。过去资管行业的常态是“哪只单品业绩火爆客户就买哪只”，导致投资者的对账单变成各大基金经理互不相干理念的拼盘；而 Avantis 让理财顾问的生活变得前所未有的轻松——他们无需费尽心机去钻研学习 7 个不同基金经理的投资心法，只需吃透 Avantis 的这套底层逻辑，就能用它自信地向终端客户解释整套横跨大盘、小盘、价值与成长的全天候工具箱。这种“认同一种逻辑，随即打包配置 3 到 4 只产品”的系统化采纳模式，直接构成了 Avantis 资金规模非线性几何级爆发的底层引擎。 ### [29:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1791s) 主动型 ETF 的爆发式增长与行业顺风 Jonathan Thomas 解释称，Avantis 能够迅速崛起，除了团队前期的扎实准备之外，整个资管行业巨大的顺风（tailwind）也是关键驱动力。在当下阶段，年初至今（YTD）的 ETF 资金流入中，有约 40% 流向了主动型 ETF（Active ETFs）。回顾过去五年，主动型 ETF 整体品类实现了超过 50% 的年化复合扩张，这证明该趋势绝非仅仅发生在 Avantis 一家身上，而是整个投资生态的重构。 回到 2018 年 American Century 刚布局 ETF 业务时，全市场主动型 ETF 的总规模仅有约 500 亿美元，市场份额不过 1% 至 2%；如今，主动型 ETF 的总规模已逼近 2 万亿美元（约占全美 ETF 市场份额的 11%）。多年以来，市场主流论调一直声称“主动管理已死，再也没有人买主动基金了”，但现实表明，投资人真正抛弃的并不是主动管理本身，而是传统公募基金高昂的管理费、僵化的资产结构以及缺乏透明度。只要把费率降下来、提升底层组合的透明度，资金依然对阿尔法（超额收益）充满渴望。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 主动型 ETF 市场份额扩张对比 accDescr: 展示主动型 ETF 从 2018 年到当下的资产规模与市场份额的剧烈跃升 subgraph Y2018["2018 年现状"] A1["规模：500 亿美元"] --> A2["市场份额：1% - 2%"] end subgraph Today["当前现状"] B1["规模：逼近 2 万亿美元"] --> B2["市场份额：约 11%"] B3["年内资金流入占比：约 40%"] end Y2018 ==>|"行业顺风驱动"| Today ``` - **市场资金偏好**：年内约 40% 的 ETF 净增资金涌入主动型标的。 - **五年增长轨迹**：主动型 ETF 整体品类过去五年的扩张幅度突破 50%。 - **份额巨大跨越**：自 2018 年以来，主动型 ETF 规模从 500 亿美元暴增至逼近 2 万亿美元，市场渗透率从 1%–2% 飙升至 11%。 --- ### [31:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1864s) Cathie Wood 的破冰效应与 SEC 6c-11 规则变革 Josh Brown 指出，必须给予 ARK 投资的 Cathie Wood 足够的肯定，正是她在疫情期间“一脚踢开了大门”，打造出第一批主流且具备巨大影响力的主动型 ETF。即便这并不代表对她投资风格的认可——当时伴随疫情期“低质量、高增长的指数级科技故事”所形成的泡沫，Cathie 建立起一个规模达 500 亿美元的主动型 ETF 投资帝国。尽管过去几年 ARK 经历了大幅回撤，但她确实扮演了开路先锋的角色，让整个华尔街资管机构意识到：市场存在巨大的客户群体，他们既想要 ETF 载体的税收与流动性优势，又渴望真正的个股挑选能力，而非平庸的基准跟踪。 Jonathan 补充道，除了市场情绪，另一个极其关键但常被忽视的制度顺风是 2019 年美国证券交易委员会（SEC）出台的 6c-11 规则（通称“ETF 规则”，ETF Rule）。在该规则落地之前，任何资产管理公司若想推出一只主动型 ETF，必须逐一向 SEC 申请极其繁复的豁免救济（exemptive relief）。申请过程充满不确定性且耗时漫长；6c-11 规则彻底打破了准入门槛，为主动型 ETF 的全面铺开扫清了监管路障。 - **先驱范式**：ARK Invest 率先突破 500 亿美元规模，向行业验证了主动选股型 ETF 的受众体量。 - **监管松绑**：2019 年 SEC 颁布 6c-11 规则，取消个案申请豁免的严苛限制，大幅缩短产品上市周期。 --- ### [32:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1963s) 持仓全透明的胜利与“半透明 ETF”的试错 长期以来，传统共同基金经理有一种根深蒂固的执念，认为基金经理必须对每日交易保持绝对保密，必须享受长达 45 天的季度持仓申报延迟，以防止策略被他人“免费搭车”（free riding）或被对手盘抢先交易（front running）。然而，现实证明这一担忧被严重夸大了。如今各大主动型 ETF 均每日在官网上公开全部持仓与调仓数据，不仅市场没有崩溃，反而成为向顾问展示专业能力的招牌。Sean 和 Josh 调侃道，如果理财顾问买入一只黑盒半透明产品，连业绩归因都无法向客户解释，客户自然不会买账。 Jonathan 坦言，American Century 最早涉足主动型 ETF 时的第一款产品其实正是“半透明主动型 ETF”（Semi-transparent active ETF）。他调侃金融行业特别喜欢使用“半”（semi）这个字眼——比如“半流动性”（semi-liquid）基金，其实本质上就是“完全不流动”；同样，“半透明”听起来就是“完全不透明”。当时团队内的老牌基金经理们极度担心被抢先交易，但产品推出后在市场上遭遇滑铁卢，几乎无人问津。Jonathan 的管理哲学是：“必须敢于承担风险以建立竞争优势；可一旦证明策略行不通，就必须快速认错失败（fail fast），绝不能在情感上执迷不悟。”意识到半透明既无需求又难以对冲后，他们立即转向完全透明的架构，从而打通了业务爆发的通途。 - **理念破局**：每日持仓全透明打破了华尔街传统“45天保密期”的迷信，增强了顾问归因分析的信心。 - **快速纠错哲学**：American Century 早期研发的半透明 ETF 因缺乏买盘迅速被战略放弃，团队果断转向全透明架构。 --- ### [34:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=2074s) Avantis 突破 1500 亿美元的护城河：金融科学与学术驱动 Josh 赞叹道，Avantis 从零起步仅用六年半时间资产管理规模（AUM）便突破 1500 亿美元，在当代资管行业几乎创下了历史纪录。面对竞争对手不断被清洗出局的残酷环境，Jonathan 将其成功归结为三大核心支柱：团队、商业结构与投资哲学。在团队方面，Avantis 完全是自主孵化设立（de novo）而非外部并购；掌舵人 Eduardo Repetto 拥有极度纯粹、聪明且“以客户为中心”的职业品格。Josh 也插话回忆多年前在纽约 Maialino 餐厅和 Eduardo 吃意大利烘蛋（frittata）聊因子投资的往事，当时 Avantis 甚至还没正式推出。 在产品维度上，Avantis 提供了低费率、ETF 封装结构以及高度分散化。在过往，主动管理往往靠“持股高度集中”来博取排名，结果导致业绩在“最好”与“垫底”之间剧烈摇摆；如今的机构客户更偏好在控制波动率的前提下持续跑赢基准。Jonathan 指出，即便同样是指数化投资，不同的加权方式（如等权重与市值加权）以及对“价值”因子的定义差异，都会导致结果天差地别。Avantis 的真正差异化在于摒弃了主观盲目的市场预测，全盘依赖严格的“金融科学”（Financial Science）与学术驱动的研究（Academic-driven research）来构建投资组合，建立起竞争对手难以复制的业绩与规模护城河。 - **爆发纪录**：仅耗时 6.5 年即达成 1500 亿美元 AUM，完全依赖自主孵化而非资产收购。 - **投资哲学转向**：摒弃主观个股预测与过度集中的高波动赌博，立足于严谨的学术因子研究与高度分散组合。 - **因子定义深度**：对价值等核心因子的理解与筛选机制更加前沿，摆脱了传统指数编制方式的机械局限。 --- ### [37:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=2278s) 正面迎战行业巨头 DFA：从封闭“狂热”到 ETF 浪潮的灵活性对决 当 Sean 问及市场上已充斥着 Dimensional Fund Advisors（DFA）、Charles Schwab、Fidelity 等巨头的小盘价值与因子基金、Avantis 如何脱颖而出时，Jonathan 与 Josh 展开了对最大竞争对手 DFA 的深入探讨。Josh 直言 DFA 在行业内曾享有“宗教邪教般”（cult-like）的忠诚度追随；顾问在获准销售 DFA 基金之前，必须通过极其严苛的资格认证和审核面试，以确保顾问不会在市场大跌时任由散户恐慌抛售。Josh 坦言虽然带有门槛，但这种对投资纪律的坚持令人敬佩。 Jonathan 承认 DFA 极为可敬且与 Avantis 的因子基因最为相似，但在正面竞争中，Avantis 展现出了独特的破局优势： 1. **执行敏捷性**：DFA 已经是一个管理规模达八九千亿美元的庞大机构，而规模在 1500 亿美元的 Avantis 在战略敏捷度、响应速度以及以客户为中心方面更具优势。 2. **商业模式反噬**：DFA 昔日建立的“审核制壁垒”建立在传统公募基金（Mutual Funds）之上，可以严格限制买家入口；然而一旦 DFA 自己也跟进发行了 ETF，任何人在二级市场都能自由交易，其原有的封闭排他性壁垒便瞬间瓦解。 3. **老业务的自相蚕食（Cannibalization）**：面对已有的庞大传统《1940年投资公司法》公募基金基本盘，老牌巨头在向低成本 ETF 迁移时面临严重的内部收益自我蚕食难题，而 Avantis 轻装上阵，能够全力聚焦于费率和超额表现。 - **规模与敏捷度对比**：相较于逼近 1 万亿美元规模的 DFA，1500 亿美元的 Avantis 在保持规模效应的同时具备更高的战术灵活性。 - **分销壁垒消解**：ETF 交易的开放性彻底瓦解了过去共同基金时代“需获准才能购买”的封闭壁垒。 - **业务负担差异**：老牌资管巨头面临传统高费率公募基金向低费率 ETF 迁移时的利润自相蚕食，给纯粹的后起之秀留下了绝佳的切入窗口。 ### [40:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=2400s) ETF引发的行业洗牌与老牌巨头的突围 Josh Brown 与 Jonathan Thomas 深入剖析了传统共同基金（Mutual Fund）向 ETF 包装器（Wrapper）大迁徙背后的战略抉择。Josh 指出，虽然很多运营了30年的传统共同基金依然有满意的老客户，但未来的资金配置者是新一代财务顾问（FA）。这些投顾正在构建全 ETF 投资组合，其管理规模可能迅速从1亿美元扩张到50亿美元；如果基金公司没有对应的 ETF 产品，就会彻底被排除在这些增量资产之外。因此，资产管理机构必须下定决心推进 ETF 份额类别（Share Class），甚至坦然接受旗下“40 Act”共同基金的资金被自相残杀（Cannibalize）并转移到费率更低、利润更薄的 ETF 之中。 Jonathan Thomas 坦言，许多同行后悔没有在十年前就咬牙迈出这一步。过去二十年里，共同基金行业的阶梯格局极其固化，尽管贝莱德（BlackRock）、先锋领航（Vanguard）和富达（Fidelity）凭借庞大规模拉开了与后者的距离，但整个排行榜的座次几乎纹丝不动。然而，ETF 的崛起让整场比赛变成了一场重新争夺球权的“争球（Jump ball）”。在传统共同基金端，自1958年成立的 American Century 排在全美第20位左右；但凭借及早布局并针对投顾痛点量身定制，公司如今在全美主动型 ETF 发行商中高居第4位；即便把所有被动型指数 ETF 都算上，也能排在第12或第13位。Jonathan 将这种从固化等级中实现排位跃升的机遇生动地形容为一场“越狱（Jailbreak）”。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 资管行业从共同基金到主动ETF的格局重构 accDescr: 展示共同基金固化阶层如何因投顾偏好转变及ETF机制优势，促成发行商排位跃升。 subgraph MutualFund["传统共同基金格局（固化）"] MF1["行业巨头巩固头部优势<br/>(BlackRock / Vanguard / Fidelity)"] MF2["American Century 长期位居约第20名"] MF3["规模过大时为保Alpha被迫关停<br/>打乱投顾配置模型"] end subgraph IndustryShift["资金端动能转换"] Shift1["新一代投顾仅构建全ETF模型组合"] Shift2["资产面临向低费率结构迁移的自相残杀"] end subgraph ActiveETF["主动型 ETF 赛道（重新洗牌）"] ETF1["Avantis 广泛分散持仓实现永续扩容"] ETF2["全美主动型 ETF 发行商跃升至第4位"] ETF3["全市场所有 ETF 总排名升至第12-13位"] end MutualFund --> IndustryShift IndustryShift --> ActiveETF ``` - 市场渗透率：在 American Century 最早试水 ETF 时，该赛道在整体资管市场的占比仅为 1% 至 2%，如今已飙升至 11%。 - 行业地位跃升：从综合资管排名的约第 20 位，跃升至全美第 4 大主动型 ETF 发行机构，全品类 ETF（含被动）排名第 12 至 13 位。 --- ### [42:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=2551s) 抵制投机诱惑：做可持续扩容的核心配置 Josh Brown 强调，American Century 与 Avantis 走了一条非常清晰且克制的专业路线，绝不追逐市场短期风口，完全不涉足单股票杠杆 ETF、三倍杠杆工具或各类概念炒作型（Thematic）ETF。Jonathan Thomas 赞同这一评价，指出某些竞品如同“意大利面大炮（Spaghetti cannon）”——把各种乱七八糟的产品往墙上轰，看哪根能粘住。Avantis 的目标则是打造真正符合客户最佳利益的“核心投资组合底仓（Core portfolio holdings）”，而非关注“下个月能忽悠谁来买”。 Jonathan 进一步阐明了传统共同基金与现代主动型 ETF 的关键运作差异：过去许多优秀的共同基金一旦资产规模（AUM）过大，为了维持产生超额收益（Alpha）的能力，往往不得不对新资金“关门停售（Soft/Hard close）”，这给采用模型组合的投顾带来了巨大的配置混乱与再平衡成本。而 Avantis 在构建底层资产时从一开始就设计了“永续扩容（Scale perpetually）”机制，即便是在容易面临容量上限的小盘股领域，Avantis 也会通过广泛分散配置海量标的，让产品规模即使急速膨胀也能平稳吸收流动性，从而消除关门停售的困扰。 随后，Josh Brown 热情盛赞了 American Century 旗下的明星销售 Carolyn Gainer，称她是自己见过最出色的人之一、堪称“名人堂级别”的王牌批发代表（Wholesaler），甚至打趣希望她未来接任 CEO。谈及旗下不同子品牌的关系时，Jonathan 笑着表示作为管理层自然对“每个孩子都一视同仁”： - 早期探索：公司在2018年前后曾发行过基于“Smart Beta”的 ETF（Josh 调侃这个词早已过时），也曾尝试过非透明/半透明（Non-transparent / Semi-transparent）主动型 ETF，尽管后者并未成功，但公司随后以母品牌 American Century 推出的系列 ETF 均取得了正向净申购。 - 行业现实：无论是自家还是同行，传统共同基金业务均处于持续的巨额资金净流出状态；而无论打着 Avantis 还是 American Century 旗号，ETF 业务板块都在实现强劲增长。 --- ### [45:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=2729s) 坚韧的宏观经济与“反直觉”的超级牛市 话题切入宏观大势与美股财报季。Josh Brown 列出了一组极其强劲的数据：分析师对当前财报季的标准普尔 500 指数每股收益（EPS）预期同比增长高达 23.2%，率先交卷的金融板块业绩堪称全垒打。尤为亮眼的是，即便剔除“科技七巨头（Magnificent Seven）”，标普其余成份股的盈利预期增速依然达到了惊人的 20.9%；在标普 11 个一级行业板块中，有 10 个板块正处于盈利增长阶段，而科技板块的同比盈利增速更是预计高达疯狂的 65%。Josh 直言，如果从自上而下的宏观视角来看，自 2008-2009 年金融危机以来，除了 2016 年一季度的轻微颠簸以及 2022 年的回撤外，美股实际上经历了一场长达 17 年的惊人牛市。 Jonathan Thomas 分享了自己评估经济基本面的三大支柱，并阐述了为何当前经济环境展现出了不可思议的韧性： 1. **宏观经济基本面**：过去一两年外部环境几乎经历了所有可能的冲击——地缘冲突、关税政策、难以预测的联储降息路径、脆弱的劳动力市场，以及对 AI 替代人工的恐慌。然而实际数据显示，经济不仅没有衰退迹象，反而正在重新加速。 2. **通胀走势**：尽管通胀仍处高位，但最新公布的 CPI 读数降至 3.5%（此前市场耳语预期为 3.8% 至 4.2%），创下六年来最大的单月降幅，主要得益于油价回落及局势缓和。 3. **消费者韧性**：尤其是高净值消费者群体的收入与消费开支依然极其强劲，支撑了下半年甚至更长期的平稳运行态势。 Josh Brown 引用了 Ritholtz 财富管理同事 Ben Carlson 的趣味推文：“今年难道是金融市场上最正常的一年吗？——美股上涨约 11%，GDP 增速在 2% 至 3% 区间，通胀回落至 3.5%，10 年期美债收益率停留在 4.5%。”Jonathan 对此深表赞同，感叹在如此多惊悚的新闻头条轰炸下，所有核心宏观指标却反直觉地精准落在历史常态区间。 --- ### [48:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=2936s) AI 投资风口：从底层“创造者”到广泛“采纳者”的扩散 对于市场涨幅的健康程度，Jonathan Thomas 重点指出，牛市的受益面正在从最初的极度集中走向健康的分化与扩散（Broadening out）。在 AI 浪潮的最初阶段，行情完全由底层的“创造者（Creators）”与“赋能者（Enablers）”主导——即英伟达及提供算力和芯片基建的少数巨头驱动了全市场的涨幅；但当前市场正步入全新阶段，各行各业的“采纳者（Adopters）”开始真正收获 AI 带来的降本增效红利。未来的企业赢家与输家，将取决于谁能最高效、最正确地将 AI 技术落地部署到实际业务中。 在深入展开 AI 的五层架构分析前，Jonathan 还称赞了 Josh Brown 公司办公室的浓厚文化与活力，赞赏团队内部如同家庭般的信任感；Josh 则打趣称团队成员几乎全都在 30 岁以下，自己在这里算是个“老头子”，直到 Jonathan 走进来才打破这个纪录，现场充满融洽的互动氛围。 ### [50:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3006s) 历史新高与“盈利泡沫”论调的兴起 Jonathan Thomas 首先回顾了标普 500 指数创历史新高的频率：截至当前年份，年内已有 24 次创下历史新高；此前连续两年各有 57 次；2022 年和 2023 年则经历沉寂；而在 2021 年曾创下高达 70 次的历史新高。许多投资者每逢历史高点便陷入恐慌，生怕自己买在最高点（“top tick”），但 Jonathan 指出，过去五年的走势更说明这是一轮持续中的牛市，而非衰退或暴跌即将来临的征兆。 针对这种担忧，Josh Brown 指出空头阵营近期出现了一种新说法：他们不再声称市场存在“股票估值泡沫”，因为在真正的泡沫中，估值倍数（multiples）会不断膨胀，投资者愿意为每单位盈利支付越来越高的溢价；然而今年，市场上最显眼、体量最大的成长股估值倍数反而在收缩。因此，空头们将逻辑转向所谓的“盈利泡沫”（earnings bubble）——认为当前企业的利润率本身不可持续。 随后 Sean Russo 展示了来自 Chart Kid 的图表。深蓝色代表实际每股收益（EPS），浅蓝色代表前一年的预期每股收益。分析师在非衰退期的盈利预测通常极为精准，唯独在 2001 年、2002 年、2008–2009 年以及 2020 年等衰退周期出现严重误判。Josh Brown 对图表中未来一年盈利预期近乎垂直拉升的走势表达了疑虑。 - **标普 500 历史新高次数**：当年年内 24 次，前两年各 57 次，2021 年达到 70 次。 - **泡沫定义之争**：估值倍数收缩使得空头放弃了“股票估值泡沫”的论据，转而押注“企业利润不可持续”的“盈利泡沫”。 --- ### [51:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3115s) 资本支出周期的历史镜像：从 Pets.com 到 Chewy Jonathan Thomas 梳理了历次经济与市场泡沫的本质。2001 年的互联网泡沫在很大程度上也是一场由基础设施建设催生的巨额资本支出（Capex）泡沫。当时几乎所有人都深信互联网将颠覆一切，而彼时的泡沫代表性产物正是 Pets.com——一个在当时被证明是极差商业决策的标杆案例。然而，互联网真正兑现其全面影响力经历了漫长的周期，Jonathan 认为直到 2020 年新冠疫情爆发、全员被迫转入远程办公和线上消费时，2000 年人们所构想的互联网愿景才真正彻底落地。 有意思的是，如今在宠物消费赛道上表现亮眼的 Chewy，本质上与当年的 Pets.com 是完全一致的商业概念。“概念本身是正确的，只是当时时机未到。”Chewy 的成功证明了技术在时机成熟并完全普及后所释放的价值。Jonathan 还调侃了华尔街层出不穷的新名词，比如近期出现的“chipwreck”（芯片海难），并重申当前的盈利与估值背离，核心在于 AI 的“实际采纳者”（adopters）与“底层构建者”（creators）之间的角色演变。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 基础设施投资到价值落地的演进周期 accDescr: 展示从早期 Capex 泡沫到技术最终被广泛采纳并兑现生产力的周期流转 subgraph Phase1 ["泡沫酝酿期 (2000 / 当前)"] A["技术概念涌现"] --> B["大规模 Capex 建设"] B --> C["商业模式受挫 (如 Pets.com)"] end subgraph Phase2 ["成熟采纳期 (2020 / 未来)"] D["技术全面普及"] --> E["实际采纳者兑现价值 (如 Chewy)"] E --> F["生产力驱动长期利润与 GDP"] end Phase1 --> Phase2 ``` --- ### [53:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3230s) 英伟达的估值困境与循环融资隐忧 节目展示了全球市值最大股票英伟达（Nvidia）的财务走势图。尽管英伟达保持着极为惊人的业绩增速，并且持续超预期并上调指引，但股价对盈利利好已经不再产生强烈的正面反应；其估值倍数在业绩未见任何失速迹象的情况下变得越来越便宜，甚至跌至大约 18 倍的前瞻市盈率，低于标普 500 指数的平均水平。 Josh Brown 认为这反映了市场已经对英伟达的垄断故事产生了审美疲劳：“市场的意思是，我们听懂了，他们垄断了 AI 和 GPU。”同时，ASIC 专用集成电路芯片、超大规模云厂商自研芯片以及参数需求更小的轻量化大语言模型（LLM）带来的潜在竞争，都在压制估值。倘若市盈率从 30 倍暴涨到 90 倍，那才是泡沫，而目前它对大盘甚至呈现出巨大折价。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI 数据中心与芯片销售的循环融资生态 accDescr: 描绘由主权基金、PE支持的 NeoCloud 与芯片供应商之间相互担保的循环投资链条 subgraph Funding ["资金与筹备阶段"] A["资本支持 (主权财富基金 / PE)"] --> B["新兴云厂商 (NeoCloud) 成立"] end subgraph Procurement ["采购与背书阶段"] B --> C["数据中心建设规划"] D["芯片巨头 (如 Nvidia)"] -- "提供采购担保/背书" --> B D -- "交付算力硬件" --> C end subgraph Risk ["潜在隐患"] C --> E["资本开支放缓 / 承诺落空"] E --> F["流动性断裂：音乐停止没有椅子"] end ``` 针对所谓的“循环投资”（circular investing）与自由现金流担忧，Josh 描绘了一个潜在的连锁反应机制： 假设一家初创的新兴云厂商（NeoCloud）计划斥资建造 AI 数据中心，背后吸引了来自中东、挪威或 Apollo 等私募股权机构的资金背书。英伟达闻讯主动介入，表示愿意出售 GPU，甚至在对方资金尚未完全到位的情况下为其采购提供财务背书。英伟达据此确认芯片销售收入，而新兴云厂商则拿着英伟达的间接支持去进一步撬动更多融资。 Josh 指出，一旦整个生态中相互借贷、股权交叉投资的项目被放大上千倍，“当音乐停止、所有人争抢椅子时，许多承诺将如水蒸气般凭空蒸发”，而这正是可能将所谓“盈利泡沫”坐实的真正导火索。 --- ### [57:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3448s) 市场接力：从“科技七巨头”转向“标普 493” Jonathan Thomas 强调，必须将经济基本面与股市表现区分开来。经济表现稳健，但股票定价反映的是对未来盈利折现的预期。英伟达估值被压缩至 18 倍左右，表明市场已经开始将其面临的潜在颠覆与竞争计入价格。然而，关键取决于 AI 的实际应用采纳者能否兑现预期的生产力红利——因为生产力才是驱动利润率、企业收益和实际 GDP 增长的核心源泉。一旦这批应用企业实现生产力飞跃，市场估值自然会重新回升。 Josh Brown 赞同这一观点，并指出解决美股过度集中于巨头（Hyper-concentration）的健康出路并非重演 2022 年式的熊市，而是完成一场“交接棒”：标普 500 指数中除“科技七巨头”（Magnificent Seven）之外的另外 493 家公司（S&P 493），凭借在 AI 领域的大力投资实现盈利增长提速和效率提升，从而接过领涨大旗。 Sean Russo 调出了最新的指数贡献图表。在当年年内对标普 500 点数涨幅的贡献分布中，标普 493 的表现已经压倒了科技七巨头。Jonathan 补充道，市场广度正在发生实质性改善——标普 500 成分股中已有超过 50% 的股票涨幅突破 10%，这一广泛上涨的格局为近年来所罕见。 ### [59:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3589s) 市场广度扩展与黄仁勋的“AI 蛋糕五层理论” 市场讨论逐渐从标普 500 指数过度集中于大型科技股，转向涨势向小盘股和新兴市场扩散。面对半导体、存储芯片等细分领域是否已滋生泡沫的疑问，Jonathan Thomas 借用英伟达（Nvidia）CEO 黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）生动形象的“AI 蛋糕五层论”来阐述当前的投资结构。Josh Brown 打趣道：“他真是个无与伦比的推销员，因为只要提到蛋糕，我绝对买单！” Jonathan Thomas 详细剖析了黄仁勋的蛋糕模型： 1. **底层基础设施（Base Level）**：包括土地、冷却系统和电力等实体要素； 2. **芯片层（Chip Level）**：以英伟达为代表的先进算力芯片； 3. **基础设施层（Infrastructure Level）**：承载算力的数据中心； 4. **模型层（Model Level）**：各类底层大语言模型（LLM）； 5. **应用层（Application Level）**：位于金字塔顶端、直接创造商业与社会价值的各类终端软件与服务。 从投资角度来看，蛋糕底部的底层和芯片层属于重资产模式，需要“极为庞大的投资与天量资本”；越往上走，资本密集度越低，价值创造潜力却越来越大。Jonathan 强调，评估 AI 投资的关键在于搞清楚“你究竟处于蛋糕的哪一层”，以及这家公司当前占据的生态位是否具备“可持续性、可扩展性与护城河（sustainable, expandable, and defensible）”。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI 蛋糕五层架构模型 accDescr: 展示英伟达黄仁勋提出的AI蛋糕五个层级，从底层的重资产设施到顶层的轻资产应用。 subgraph HighValue["轻资产与价值创造层"] L5["5. 应用层 (Apps)<br/>医疗研发、金融承保、终端软件"] L4["4. 模型层 (LLMs)<br/>底层大语言模型与算法框架"] end subgraph HighCapEx["重资产与高资本开销层"] L3["3. 基础设施层 (Infrastructure)<br/>现代 AI 数据中心"] L2["2. 芯片与算力层 (Chips)<br/>Nvidia GPU 与高带宽存储"] L1["1. 物理底座层 (Base)<br/>土地、电力负荷、液冷与散热系统"] end L1 --> L2 L2 --> L3 L3 --> L4 L4 --> L5 ``` --- ### [01:02:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3737s) AI 的全行业渗透与应用层真正落地的早期征兆 AI 的影响力早已突破单纯的技术与半导体范畴，迅速辐射至工业、公用事业及能源行业。Josh Brown 特别提到了工程机械巨头卡特彼勒（Caterpillar），它竟也成为当前 AI 浪潮的间接受益者。尽管金融和医疗保健板块表面上看起来参与度不高，但 Josh 认为，这两个行业凭借海量数据与复杂的流程，反而极可能是 AI 作为“落地应用方与采纳者”的最大长期赢家。如果 AI 能够兑现承诺，未来数年可能会看到成百上千家金融机构或药企在财报电话会上表示：“我们业绩超预期，归功于一年前将业务工作流与承保模型全面转向 AI 时代的资本支出。” Jonathan Thomas 对此深表赞同，并指出这正是蛋糕顶层“应用层”正在发生的现实。斯托维斯医学研究所（Stowers Institute）目前正在高频借助 AI 推动疾病与癌症的基础医疗研究；在金融服务领域，投资经理们也广泛使用 AI 工具辅助研究研报与筛选标的。但他明确指出，在可预见的未来，人类判断力不会被完全剔除，“人类的最终裁决权依然至关重要，但所有输入决策过程的情报与分析都将由 AI 提供动力”。 - **应用场景深度**：涵盖保险核保（Insurance Underwriting）、药物发现（Drug Discovery）以及智能投研辅助。 - **人机协同逻辑**：AI 扮演超级情报输入与效率加速器，但投资与医疗的核心最终裁量权仍牢牢掌握在专业人类手中。 --- ### [01:04:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3854s) 人口老龄化与 AI 生产力：看似预设的历史交汇 在探讨 AI 对劳动力市场的潜在冲击时，Jonathan 提到了由策略分析师 Centrini 发布并引发数千万人关注的知名报告。该报告发布时正值地缘政治紧张局势升温，一度引发市场大幅震荡。然而报告未充分展开的一个核心命题是：全球可能正处于“人口峰值（Peak Population）”。全球主要经济体的生育率普遍断崖式下跌，虽然这绝非人类的宏观顶层设计，但如果“人口总量见顶回落，而 AI 驱动的生产力曲线呈指数级抬升，二者正好完美穿针引线，达成一种不可思议的绝妙平衡”。 Josh Brown 补充了冷酷的人口结构现状：韩国与日本出现不可逆的人口负增长，中国和欧洲紧随其后；美国虽因过去半个世纪的移民涌入暂时维持了高于发达国家均值的人口增速，但这种缓冲并非无限。更紧迫的是，美国目前仍有 6800 万婴儿潮一代（Baby Boomers）健在，未来将产生极其庞大的护理、医疗与照护需求，护工短缺将迫使社会不得不全方位仰赖机器人与 AI 自动化。尽管未来三到五年内白领就业市场可能出现短暂的“气囊型震荡”（Air Pocket），但从宏观历史长河来看，AI 的降临并非毁灭就业，而是“恰逢其时”。 --- ### [01:06:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3975s) 斯托维斯研究所传奇：从身患癌症到改变行业的慈善结构 话题转向美国世纪投资公司（American Century Investments）独一无二的创立与股权结构。创始人小吉姆·斯托维斯（Jim Stowers Jr.）于 1958 年在密苏里州堪萨斯城创办了这家资产管理公司。作为从 Waddell & Reed 出身的基金销售员，他起步时仅有 10 万美元资本、24 位投资人和两只公募基金，在远离华尔街传统的堪萨斯城开辟了属于自己的金融版图。 转折发生在 20 世纪 90 年代末，吉姆·斯托维斯与妻子双双不幸罹患癌症。在接受治疗的过程中，他们震惊地发现当时的肿瘤医疗手段依然停留在极其原始、近乎“野蛮残忍”的放化疗阶段，数十年间毫无根本性革新。夫妻二人随即下定决心，要用毕生财富做一些超越金钱本身的事业： - **裸捐全部净资产**：斯托维斯夫妇在生前毅然捐出了几乎全部的个人身家。 - **改建研究基地**：他们买下堪萨斯城一座废弃已久的破旧老医院，将其全面重建为世界一流的斯托维斯医学研究所（Stowers Institute for Medical Research）。 - **源源不断的自我造血机制**：美国世纪投资公司构建了独一无二的股权设计，每年将超过 40% 的公司分红直接持续输送给斯托维斯研究所。迄今为止，这笔累计分红捐赠已达到 22 亿至 23 亿美元，成为名副其实“不断生金蛋的礼物”。 作为同时担任美国世纪投资公司与斯托维斯研究所两家机构董事会主席的 Jonathan Thomas 坦言，这绝非单纯的慈善，更是一种核心差异化竞争壁垒。当他在机构客户竞标面对消防员养老金等大型委托人时，这种崇高的使命感赋予了公司无与伦比的文化凝聚力与辨识度。 ### [01:09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4161s) 机构竞标的胜负手：财富与健康的交汇点 在机构投资的最后竞标（Institutional Finals）环节，面对由警察、医生或律师等组成的投资委员会，竞争往往异常激烈。American Century 经常要与另外两家大型资管巨头同台竞技。作为公司的最终王牌（The Closer），首席执行官乔纳森·托马斯（Jonathan Thomas）总会在终面陈述的尾声加上这样一句话：“如果您选择我们，请知晓我们所产生的股息收益中有 40% 将直接用于资助医学研究，为您和您的下一代创造更美好的世界。”他表示，American Century 恰好坐落于“财富与健康”的交叉路口，而这正是全人类最需要帮助的两个领域。 虽然极少有机构单纯因为这个慈善属性就决定把钱交给他们，但在两三家顶尖机构难分伯仲、委员会陷入纠结的关键时刻，American Century 独特的所有权背景往往会成为促成最终决定的“决胜分胜负手”（Tiebreaker）。这种将资产管理收益直接输送给科研的商业模式，既为客户创造了财务回报，又赋予了投资深远的社会意义。 - **分红资助机制**：American Century 产生的可分配股息中有超过 40% 注入斯托瓦斯医学研究所（Stowers Institute for Medical Research），累计捐赠金额已达约 20 亿美元。 - **机构竞标影响力**：在收益率与策略旗鼓相当的终面阶段，该使命屡屡帮助团队脱颖而出，被公认为最强有力的竞标收尾利器。 --- ### [01:10:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4220s) 斯托瓦斯研究所的另类科研：逆向破解进化的“成功密码” 谈及斯托瓦斯研究所的科研理念，乔纳森指出，这与 American Century 非上市公司的长期主义一脉相承。大型制药公司通常受制于季度业绩考核，只追求能在 12 到 15 个月内迅速商业化的化合物，而斯托瓦斯做的是商业公司不愿碰的“基础研究”（Foundational Research）。与大多数实验室盯着化学试剂、化合物和试管不同，该研究所关注的是经历数百万年自然进化的神奇生物。常规科研总是执着于研究“机体哪里出了错”，而斯托瓦斯研究所反其道而行之，专注于研究“进化的机制到底做对了什么”。 研究人员从自然界中筛选出那些理应患病却完全免疫特定疾病的物种——比如理论上该患糖尿病却没有糖尿病、该得骨质疏松却没有骨质疏松的动物。通过在分子水平上深入剖析其蛋白质和 DNA 结构，探寻是否有能够迁移应用到人类身上的生物机制。这些基础成果不仅完全免费向全球公开发布，更独树一帜的是，实验室还会毫无保留地公布所有“失败的实验与未被证实的假说”。主持人惊呼这是“利他主义的平方”（Altruism squared）——因为公开失败的方法论，可以防止全球其他科研机构白白浪费宝贵的时间与资源去重复无效的试错。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 斯托瓦斯医学研究所科研范式对比 accDescr: 对比传统制药企业与斯托瓦斯研究所在研究对象、研究路径及成果共享上的差异 subgraph Pharma["传统商业制药路线"] A["化学分子与靶点合成"] --> B["研究病理（机体哪里出错）"] B --> C["追求短期商业化药品"] C --> D["隐藏失败实验/专利私有"] end subgraph Stowers["斯托瓦斯研究所（基础生命科学）"] E["数百万年进化的自然生物"] --> F["逆向工程（自然做对了什么）"] F --> G["分子/蛋白质/DNA 机制解密"] G --> H["公开发布成功突破与失败记录"] end ``` - **20 间独立实验室**：聚焦癌症、糖尿病、神经退行性疾病、脱发以及组织再生等不同医学难题。 - **开源科研理念**：视自身为现代医学的“底层构件”，正如 Avantis 是投资组合的核心基石一样，致力于为全人类提供可复用、免重复踩坑的基础科学资产。 --- ### [01:14:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4446s) 从涡虫再生到骨质疏松逆转：大自然的医疗奇迹与商业转化 在具体的研究成果中，最具震撼力的是对真涡虫（Planarian flatworms）的研究。研究所的首席科学家亚历杭德罗·桑切斯·阿尔瓦拉多（Alejandro Sánchez Alvarado）是全球公认的再生生物学权威，他的团队精准锁定了能够仅凭单个干细胞就重组再造出完整生物体的特殊干细胞亚群。自然界中有许多生物被切断肢体、甚至摘除器官后都能重新完整生长，如果能彻底弄清蜥蜴长出新尾巴或涡虫再生的底层机制，人类未来在器官再生和重度组织修复领域将迎来革命性突破。 虽然作为 501(c)(3) 非营利组织，其初衷是为全人类提供公共科学知识，但研究所的重大突破也会在成熟后与商业药企合作落地。例如，科学家通过对一种特定鱼类（非洲鳉鱼，African killifish）骨骼再生机制的研究，破解了遏制骨骼衰退的秘密。在此之前，市面上的药物最多只能延缓骨质疏松的恶化，而研究所将该发现转让给生物制药巨头安进（Amgen）后，成功开发出能够真正逆转骨质疏松、促进骨质新生的划时代药物。此外，研究所与佐治亚大学合作发掘出超过 300 个针对致命真菌的潜在药物靶点，并与纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心（Memorial Sloan Kettering）、MD 安德森癌症中心（MD Anderson）等全美顶级医疗机构保持着数百项密切合作。 --- ### [01:17:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4657s) 爆笑插曲：误把霉霉与凯尔西的婚礼请柬当成骚扰垃圾短信 在访谈尾声，话题转向了令全网瞩目的流行文化焦点。主持人乔什·布朗当面求证托马斯是否真的受邀参加了泰勒·斯威夫特（Taylor Swift）与特拉维斯·凯尔西（Travis Kelce）的世纪婚礼，甚至开玩笑问他是不是去当了证婚人。托马斯笑着承认确有其事，并分享了一段令人捧腹的幕后插曲。 大约在当年二三月份的时候，托马斯的手工个人手机上突然收到了一条陌生短信，上面写着：“我们是泰勒和特拉维斯，我发誓这绝对不是骚扰垃圾短信（This is from Taylor and Travis. I promise it's not spam）。”尽管托马斯与堪萨斯城酋长队的球星凯尔西私交甚笃，但看到如此离奇的措辞，他的第一反应是“这必然是诈骗信息”，随即毫不犹豫地直接删除了短信。没过几天，同样的短信再次接二连三地发了过来，反复保证自己不是垃圾短信。不堪其扰的托马斯最终直接将发件号码拉入了黑名单。直到临近婚礼前一个月左右，这场由误判垃圾信息引发的邀请误会才被揭开。 ### [01:18:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4721s) 误删并拉黑的世纪婚礼短信请帖 在 6 月的某一天，Jonathan Thomas（JT）的手机突然响了起来，屏幕上显示来电人正是特拉维斯·凯尔斯（Travis Kelce）。特拉维斯一开口就直奔主题：“嘿 JT，你差不多是唯一一个还没回复婚礼请帖的人了，到底怎么回事？”这个质问让 Jonathan 一头雾水，因为在他印象里自己根本没收到过任何请帖。特拉维斯在电话那头哭笑不得地解释说，他们其实每隔两三天就会给他发一次短信，但始终杳无音信。Jonathan 这才恍然大悟，惊呼自己不仅随手把那条短信当垃圾信息给删了，甚至还顺手把发信号码给拉黑了。 特拉维斯笑着催他赶紧把号码从黑名单里放出来，并强调他绝对在受邀名单上。面对 Jonathan 关于“为什么不用传统纸质请帖而用短信”的疑问，特拉维斯解释了背后的现实考量：参加这场婚礼的宾客全都是常年在世界各地奔波的名人和要人，行踪飘忽不定，团队根本无法掌握每个人在哪个时间节点会在哪个物理地址，寄送纸质请帖的协调成本太高；而且名单规模控制得极小，他们掌握着每位受邀者的私人手机号。现场的主持人也一语道破玄机——一旦印有时间与具体地址的实体请帖流出，分分钟就会被拍照传遍整个互联网。 这桩乌龙在解除黑名单时又遇到了新麻烦。Jonathan 从未翻过自己手机里的黑名单列表，花了整整半小时才摸索出操作路径。然而他的手机里累计屏蔽了上万个骚扰号码，光是特拉维斯提到的那个区号下就有好几百个被拉黑的记录，他完全分不清究竟哪个才是婚礼团队的发信端。无奈之下他只能再次致电特拉维斯，特拉维斯索性直接要走了 Jonathan 妻子 Cindy 的手机号，后续所有的婚礼信息才得以顺畅传递。 ### [01:20:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4842s) 严防死守的婚礼安保：双重验证、带法务约束力的 NDA 与防泄密水印 为了保证这场顶级名流婚礼的绝对私密性，整个邀请和确认流程被设计得宛如高规格特工行动。当宾客点击短信链接后，首先需要通过好几轮多因素身份验证（MFA）。通过验证后，系统会通过 DocuSign 向宾客推送一份措辞严厉的保密协议（NDA），夫妻双方必须逐字签署。Jonathan 坦言自己不能透露保密协议的具体条款，但其威慑力绝对“带刺且杀伤力十足”。 只有在顺利完成签名后，宾客才能正式查阅数字请柬。这份数字请柬采用了严密的水印防泄密机制：背景中直接嵌入了受邀者夫妇的名字“Jonathan and Cindy Thomas”。一旦有人截图或转发，互联网和媒体立刻就能精准追溯泄密源头。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 婚礼受邀与安全准入流程 accDescr: 展示从接收短信到最终获悉婚礼地点的多重安全流程 subgraph 身份验证阶段 A["私人手机短信链接"] --> B["多重身份验证 (MFA)"] B --> C["DocuSign 签署严密保密协议 (NDA)"] end subgraph 请柬与行程揭秘 C --> D["获取带个人全名背景水印的数字请帖"] D --> E["提前锁定日期：7月3日（纽约）"] E --> F["进一步缩小范围：曼哈顿"] F --> G["婚礼当天凌晨4点：正式公布麦迪逊广场花园 (MSG)"] end ``` 整场婚礼的时间和地点信息采取了层层剥笋式的递进披露方式，最大限度压缩了外界媒体的反应时间： - **首批通知**：仅告知受邀参加婚礼，确认意向； - **第二轮更新**：披露日期为 7 月 3 日，地点设在纽约； - **第三轮更新**：将范围收窄至纽约市曼哈顿区； - **终极披露**：直到婚礼当天凌晨 4:00 整，宾客才收到最终确认短信——真正的仪式举办地居然是麦迪逊广场花园（Madison Square Garden）。 ### [01:21:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4907s) 亚当·桑德勒主持、300 磅橄榄球硬汉落泪与深情誓词 谈及婚礼现场的氛围，Jonathan 直言其震撼与感动程度超乎想象。令人意想不到的是，著名喜剧演员亚当·桑德勒（Adam Sandler）竟然担任了现场的主持证婚人。当桑德勒走上台时，全场宾客一开始还以为这只是一出搞笑整蛊，但他随即便展现了极具穿透力的控场能力——他在长达二三十分钟的致辞中收放自如，在幽默风趣、深情庄重与现场清唱之间切换自如。 桑德勒的主持给 Jonathan 留下了两个格外深刻的印记：其一，传统婚礼誓词里常说的“无论贫穷还是富有”，桑德勒打趣道：“你们俩这辈子都不用为这事发愁了”；其二，他给新人留下的核心寄语是多亲吻彼此，“每天早晨、深夜、晚餐后，抓紧一切机会亲吻对方”。 随后的宣誓环节则将情感浓度推向了顶点： - **特拉维斯·凯尔斯的誓词**：特拉维斯率先登台宣誓，真情流露长达近 30 分钟。Jonathan 感慨特拉维斯将自己最脆弱、最赤诚的一面彻底展现了出来。坐在台下的 Jonathan 几度眼眶泛红、拼命憋着眼泪，直到他环顾四周，赫然发现身边那些平日里凶悍无比、体重超 300 磅的 NFL 职业橄榄球硬汉们全都在掩面痛哭，他这才释怀，跟着大家一起任由泪水淌下。 - **泰勒·斯威夫特的誓词**：作为天才词作者，泰勒同样写下了长达近 30 分钟的亲笔誓词。整段表达不仅极具诗意与文学美感，而且情真意切，被全场公认为艺术品级的浪漫告白。 ### [01:23:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=5018s) 麦迪逊广场花园内筑起城堡：全美半个娱乐圈的传奇狂欢 婚礼仪式极度庄严、真诚且充满情感张力，而仪式结束后的庆祝派对则将麦迪逊广场花园彻底改造成了童话世界。场地内部竟然平地拔起了一座巨大的宏伟城堡，其精巧的置景让置身其中的宾客完全忘记了这里原本是一座著名的体育馆。穿过城堡，后方是琳琅满目的游乐项目、互动游戏以及精心准备的极尽奢华的伴手礼。 紧接着的舞台表演更演变为美国流行音乐史诗级的神级现场： - 演出序幕由泰勒·斯威夫特分别与传奇摇滚巨星保罗·麦卡特尼（Paul McCartney）以及弗利特伍德·麦克乐队（Fleetwood Mac）的主唱斯蒂薇·妮克丝（Stevie Nicks）同台对唱拉开； - 在接下来的整整一夜里，全美文娱界顶流巨星自发轮番登台串烧献唱，现场甚至开玩笑说“要是这栋大楼今晚出了什么意外，美国整个娱乐工业当场就得瘫痪”。 派对舞池中的一幕让 Jonathan 至今感到魔幻现实主义：当他搂着妻子 Cindy 在舞池翩翩起舞时，左手边是正在摇摆的披头士传奇保罗·麦卡特尼，正前方是布拉德·皮特（Brad Pitt），侧面是传奇超模辛迪·克劳馥（Cindy Crawford），周围全是一线传奇名人。Jonathan 赞叹道，大多数婚礼往往完全以新郎新娘为自我中心，但这二人把前半部分的仪式彻底留给了彼此的深情，一旦穿过那道城堡大门，后半场派对的所有细节设计都极尽心思地只为一件事——让所有到场宾客享受到极致的快乐与宾至如归的狂欢。 ### [01:25:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=5123s) 尾声致谢与资源索引 对谈尾声，Josh Brown 和代班主持 Sean Russo 对 Jonathan Thomas 精彩绝伦的分享表达了由衷感谢，不仅盛赞了美世纪投资（American Century Investments）背后的使命与商业奇迹，也为听众带来了一窥这场梦幻婚礼幕后的难忘视角。 Jonathan 向对公司产品与科研愿景感兴趣的观众提供了进一步了解的官方渠道： - **公司与产品官网**：访问 `americancentury.com`，可以全面了解其资产管理方案、针对养老金场景的专属退休收入产品（InStream 等），以及旗下近年来爆发式增长的 Avantis Investors 投资线； - **行业动态与动态追踪**：通过 LinkedIn 关注 Jonathan Thomas 本人，他会定期发布公司重大里程碑与行业前沿洞察； - **前沿医学与公益捐助**：访问斯托斯医学研究所官网 `stowers.org`，深入了解美世纪投资每年通过分红资助的生命科学与癌症前沿科研突破。 ## Notable quotes > [21:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1290s) 那我每年付你管理费是为什么？你到底为我做了什么额外的工作？ — Josh Brown > [26:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1612s) 用每年多花 7 个基点的微小代价，换取年均 280 个基点的超额斩获 — Josh Brown > [32:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=1963s) 必须敢于承担风险以建立竞争优势；可一旦证明策略行不通，就必须快速认错失败，绝不能在情感上执迷不悟。 — Jonathan Thomas > [45:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=2729s) 今年难道是金融市场上最正常的一年吗？——美股上涨约 11%，GDP 增速在 2% 至 3% 区间，通胀回落至 3.5%，10 年期美债收益率停留在 4.5%。 — Ben Carlson / Josh Brown > [53:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3230s) 市场的意思是，我们听懂了，他们垄断了 AI 和 GPU。 — Josh Brown > [53:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3230s) 当音乐停止、所有人争抢椅子时，许多承诺将如水蒸气般凭空蒸发 — Josh Brown > [59:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3589s) 他真是个无与伦比的推销员，因为只要提到蛋糕，我绝对买单！ — Josh Brown > [01:02:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=3737s) 人类的最终裁决权依然至关重要，但所有输入决策过程的情报与分析都将由 AI 提供动力 — Jonathan Thomas > [01:09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4161s) 如果您选择我们，请知晓我们所产生的股息收益中有 40% 将直接用于资助医学研究，为您和您的下一代创造更美好的世界。 — Jonathan Thomas > [01:17:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4657s) 我们是泰勒和特拉维斯，我发誓这绝对不是骚扰垃圾短信 — Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce > [01:18:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4721s) 嘿 JT，你差不多是唯一一个还没回复婚礼请帖的人了，到底怎么回事？ — Travis Kelce > [01:21:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc&t=4907s) 每天早晨、深夜、晚餐后，抓紧一切机会亲吻对方 — Adam Sandler ## Mentioned Jonathan Thomas, Josh Brown, Sean Russo, Michael Batnick, Stephen Curry, Tony Romo, Cathie Wood, Eduardo Repetto, Carolyn Gainer, Ben Carlson, Jensen Huang (黄仁勋), Jim Stowers Jr., Alejandro Sánchez Alvarado, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Adam Sandler, Paul McCartney, Stevie Nicks, Brad Pitt, Cindy Crawford, American Century Investments, Avantis Investors, Income America, Stowers Institute for Medical Research (斯托斯医学研究所), Public, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley, Fidelity, Bank of America, BlackRock, Vanguard, Charles Schwab, Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), ARK Invest, Nvidia, Caterpillar, Amgen, Memorial Sloan Kettering, MD Anderson, SEC (美国证券交易委员会), SEC 6c-11 规则 (ETF Rule), Active ETFs (主动型 ETF), American Century Championship, S&P 500, Magnificent Seven, S&P 493, Madison Square Garden (麦迪逊广场花园) ## Video description On episode 251 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sean Russo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by Jonathan Thomas, CEO of American Century Investments, to discuss: the remarkable rise of Avantis Investors, why active ETFs are gaining ground, what it takes to build investment products that can outperform without taking excessive risk, whether AI is creating an earnings bubble, why the market is broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven, and where the biggest long-term opportunities in AI may emerge. Plus, Jonathan shares the story behind American Century’s ownership structure, which has directed billions of dollars toward cancer and genetic-disease research at the Stowers Institute for Medical Research—and takes us inside one of the most exclusive celebrity weddings imaginable. This episode is sponsored by Public, Visit: https://www.public.com/compound to learn more ▶ 00:00 - Cold Open ▶ 03:30 - American Century’s Celebrity Golf Tournament ▶ 07:58 - Intro ▶ 09:58 - What Is American Century Investments? ▶ 12:18 - Jonathan Thomas’ Path to CEO ▶ 15:08 - How the Asset Management Business Has Changed ▶ 20:54 - The Shift to ETFs, Platforms, and Direct Indexing ▶ 24:09 - How Avantis Became a $150 Billion Business ▶ 31:48 - Why Active ETFs Are Taking Off ▶ 35:16 - What Makes Avantis Different? ▶ 45:27 - Let’s Talk Stocks! ▶ 51:26 - Is the Market in an Earnings Bubble? ▶ 54:41 - Nvidia, AI Spending, and Circular Financing ▶ 59:17 - The Market Broadens Beyond the Magnificent Seven ▶ 01:01:16 - The Five Layers of the AI Investment Boom ▶ 01:07:00 - Stowers Institute for Medical Research ▶ 01:12:00 - Using Nature to Fight Cancer and Disease ▶ 01:17:37 - Inside Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding 👕 Check out The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com 🎙️Listen to our podcasts: TCAF: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/ Animal Spirits: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/animalspirits/ Ask The Compound: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/ATC/ The Compound Newsletter: https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Josh Brown and Michael Batnick are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. #thecompound #investing #stockmarket #stocks [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSSTCOa-bc)

[21:30] Josh Brown: 那我每年付你管理费是为什么？你到底为我做了什么额外的工作？ [26:52] Josh Brown: 用每年多花 7 个基点的微小代价，换取年均 280 个基点的超额斩获 [32:43] Jonathan Thomas: 必须敢于承担风险以建立竞争优势；可一旦证明策略行不通，就必须快速认错失败，绝不能在情感上执迷不悟。 [45:29] Ben Carlson / Josh Brown: 今年难道是金融市场上最正常的一年吗？——美股上涨约 11%，GDP 增速在 2% 至 3% 区间，通胀回落至 3.5%，10 年期美债收益率停留在 4.5%。 [53:50] Josh Brown: 市场的意思是，我们听懂了，他们垄断了 AI 和 GPU。 [53:50] Josh Brown: 当音乐停止、所有人争抢椅子时，许多承诺将如水蒸气般凭空蒸发 [59:49] Josh Brown: 他真是个无与伦比的推销员，因为只要提到蛋糕，我绝对买单！ [62:17] Jonathan Thomas: 人类的最终裁决权依然至关重要，但所有输入决策过程的情报与分析都将由 AI 提供动力 [69:21] Jonathan Thomas: 如果您选择我们，请知晓我们所产生的股息收益中有 40% 将直接用于资助医学研究，为您和您的下一代创造更美好的世界。 [77:37] Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce: 我们是泰勒和特拉维斯，我发誓这绝对不是骚扰垃圾短信 [78:41] Travis Kelce: 嘿 JT，你差不多是唯一一个还没回复婚礼请帖的人了，到底怎么回事？ [81:47] Adam Sandler: 每天早晨、深夜、晚餐后，抓紧一切机会亲吻对方

[12:18] Jonathan Thomas: Somewhere in my 30s, I figured out that what we do—all of us in this room—is we help people. And I started thinking about what I do, not as work, but as helping others. [20:00] Jonathan Thomas: At the end of the day, the advice is important, but it's the behavioral side that's so critical with retail clients... they need somebody to come to when the markets go down. [20:23] Jonathan Thomas: Twenty or thirty years ago, 75% or 80% of asset managers had positive net investment. Today it's totally flipped—it's about 75% or 80% that are negative. [24:52] Jonathan Thomas: When people buy us, they tend to buy three or four positions once they buy... it makes their life easier. [29:54] Jonathan Thomas: Everyone said active is dead. Nobody's buying active anymore. And what it really turned out to be is it was the other attributes: the fees, the building blocks, transparency. [33:31] Jonathan Thomas: Semi-transparency sounds just like it's not going to be transparent... and it wasn't. [34:34] Jonathan Thomas: Eduardo is one of the most virtuous, smartest, client-centric people I've ever worked with... those attributes, even though they sound very fluffy, are real tangible differentiators. [37:58] Josh Brown: Our welcome door is not that wide either—you have to have a financial plan to invest with us. We don't just take checks from people because they like me on TV. [40:07] Jonathan Thomas: Moving to ETFs, all of a sudden it was a jump ball... it's been exhilarating to have a jailbreak, candidly, for all of us who've been in that hierarchy for so long. [48:56] Jonathan Thomas: The creators and the enablers of AI were just soaring, and now what's starting to happen is the adopters are starting to receive the benefit from it.

[0:00] This can't be good breathing this in, [0:01] right? [0:02] >> Oh, it's got to be awful. [0:03] >> So, it's like carcinogens in the air. [0:06] >> Yeah. I mean, it's Canadian wildfires, [0:08] right? [0:08] >> What's up, Sean? [0:09] >> What's up, John? [0:10] >> Is this going to be a regular thing now? [0:11] Do you think [0:12] >> a little bit a couple years ago? [0:13] >> I was going to say we've had it for a [0:15] few years now. I think [0:17] >> I read something that the air quality [0:19] today is same air quality happens 60 [0:22] times a year in the 80s. [0:24] >> Really? [0:25] >> In New York. [0:27] [laughter] [0:28] >> Does that sound right? [0:30] I don't remember. I don't remember this [0:31] other than recently. I don't remember. [0:33] [applause] This is [0:34] >> What do I know? [0:36] >> They could keep their [0:37] >> from people smoking. [0:38] >> Well, I think it was from the [0:40] >> so much. [0:41] >> I think it was from all the factories [0:42] and whatnot. [0:43] >> Yeah, you guys are young. You didn't get [0:44] on airplanes where people had lit [0:46] cigarettes in the cabin. [0:48] >> I kind of wish I was a part of that. [0:50] >> No, you don't. [0:51] >> And then you're in the non-smoking [0:52] section. It was one foot away with no [0:55] circulation. [0:56] >> Yeah. No smoking at this seat. Yeah, at [0:58] this scene you can. [laughter] [1:01] >> We were very We were very scientific. [1:03] Um, I have science questions for you [1:05] today. Are you ready? Are you ready for [1:07] those? [1:07] >> Depending how deep they are, sure. [1:09] >> Well, yeah. I mean, I'm not going to ask [1:10] you to run an experiment, but I I was [1:13] reading I was reading up on uh Star Wars [1:16] and [1:17] >> Star Wars. Yep. [1:18] >> I I mean, I'm fascinated by this. So, [1:20] >> it's it's really a unique story. [1:22] >> Yeah, it's I think it's one of the [1:23] coolest things and I I uh can't wait to [1:25] ask you all my questions. Um, do you [1:28] come to New York a lot? [1:30] >> Yeah, I probably get here half dozen [1:32] times a year. [1:33] >> Okay. [1:34] >> You know, every other month or so. [1:35] >> Tell me about the golf tournament. [1:37] >> The golf tournament. So, uh, yeah, we [1:40] just had that last week. The funny thing [1:41] is that when people see me wearing an [1:43] American Century shirt, I always want [1:45] them to say, "Oh, you know, [1:47] [clears throat] [1:47] >> oh, like that golf tournament?" [1:48] >> No, I want them to say, "I got all my [1:50] money with you, everything." But the [1:51] first thing they say is, "I love your [1:53] golf tournament." And [1:54] >> so when did it when did it when did it [1:55] start? How long has that been running? [1:57] >> So, it was originally started by Isuzu [2:01] 37 years ago. It was kind of a hot dog [2:04] and potato chip event. Uh we took it [2:07] over 27 years ago. [2:09] >> Okay. [2:10] >> And um when I first joined the company, [2:12] I thought, "Oh my gosh, you know, a [2:14] celebrity golf tournament made for TV." [2:17] You know, I went to it. We didn't have a [2:19] lot of people there. We had um we [2:21] actually hired people to stand in South [2:24] Lake Tahoe and give out tickets to try [2:27] to get people to show up [2:28] >> because nobody knew what it was. Right. [2:30] Right. [2:30] >> Yeah. You fast forward now till this [2:33] year, last several years, we've actually [2:35] sold out on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, [2:38] we have people tunneling in. They bring [2:40] shovels and have and they there's a [2:43] fence around the place and because [2:45] they're sold out, they would tunnel in. [2:46] And so now we have to put security [2:48] around the perimeter at night uh so they [2:50] don't do that. And we've had, you know, [2:53] 85,000 [2:54] people show up, you know, 5 million [2:57] viewers, 4 billion social media [2:59] impressions, 17 billion press hits. It's [3:02] turned into a gigantic. [3:04] >> Why do people want to be there so badly? [3:05] You guys, you get great golfers. [3:08] >> We get about 12 great golfers. And then [3:11] we have 78 really fun people. [3:14] Celebrities. [3:14] >> Yeah. Celebrity. Well, the celebrities [3:16] are also the golfers. There's about a [3:18] dozen that can win it. Uh but there's [3:20] another 78 folks that are legends in [3:23] whatever they did. Uh they're best in [3:25] their field. And they the the [3:27] environment there is very intimate. Uh [3:29] like you know, you can go up and talk to [3:32] anybody uh in a way that you can't do in [3:35] a in a bigger place. The city is very [3:39] space constrained and so it just works [3:41] out perfectly. And then the weather's I [3:43] don't know if there's a better place in [3:44] July for weather. It's beautiful. [3:46] >> Where where is it? Where do you hold it? [3:48] >> Uh Lake Tahoe. [3:49] >> Okay. [3:49] >> Yeah. [3:49] >> All right. And it's always been there. [3:51] >> It's been there forever. [3:52] >> Okay. Y [3:53] >> who So give us an example of some of the [3:54] celebrities that played this year. [3:56] >> Oh my gosh. Well, probably the guys that [3:58] stole the show this year were the hockey [4:00] guys from the USA Olympic hockey team. [4:03] So we had uh the Kachchuck brothers uh [4:06] who by the way just got joined on the [4:08] same team and the Panthers. Matt Baldy. [4:10] He's the guy who scored the first goal, [4:12] who flipped the puck up on his stick [4:16] over the defender, caught it with his [4:18] stick, and then scored the goal. Uh, so [4:20] the hockey guys are a big deal. Steph [4:22] Curry was there. [4:24] >> Um, I mean, it is [4:25] >> Tony Romo, I think, always goes. [4:27] >> Tony was there again this year. He's a [4:29] real player as well. He's always in the [4:31] hunting on the leaderboard. So, it's u [4:33] it's literally mega stars from every [4:35] walk of life. Is that your favorite [4:37] annual event for uh for American Century [4:39] that you get to be part of? [4:40] >> It's really our only major branding [4:44] event that we do. Uh we pour almost all [4:47] of our discretionary marketing budget [4:49] into it. [4:49] >> Okay. [4:50] >> But when you look at, you know, kind of [4:52] our size and then our brand awareness [4:54] and there's another thing called luxury [4:56] awareness, we punch way above our [4:58] weight. And well, maybe everyone may not [5:02] know exactly what we do, but they all [5:04] know the name American Century because [5:06] of the tournament. So, it's been a great [5:08] brand. [5:08] >> Mission mission accomplished. [5:09] >> Yeah, that's how I feel about it. Yeah, [5:10] >> that's that's really cool. Um, I was [5:13] checking my spam folder. I didn't see my [5:15] invite to this one. [5:16] >> Oh, [5:17] >> maybe it went to a different address. I [5:18] don't [5:19] >> You know what, Josh? Why don't we just [5:20] throw our own thing? Like, when is [5:22] Rholtz going to have our own tournament [5:23] that we can sponsor? [5:24] >> I don't know if we have the budget for [5:25] that. What uh what network carries it on [5:28] TV? It's on a It's a three-day no cut [5:32] tournament. On Friday, it's Peacock and [5:36] Saturday, Sunday, it's mainstream uh [5:38] NBC. [5:39] >> That is that is unbelievable. [5:40] >> Yeah, it's crazy. Really? [5:41] >> You I mean, I was going to say you you [5:43] could not buy that level of attention. [5:45] You have to have earned it. And you guys [5:47] have obviously had a fun event for so [5:49] long that it's become an institution. [5:51] >> Yeah. actually you would probably you [5:52] know all kidding aside outside of your [5:55] spam folder um you would enjoy it [5:57] because what what happens is obviously [6:00] we have all these celebrities there but [6:02] and I'd like to think people come for [6:04] American Century or the celebrities but [6:06] I would say the number one reason people [6:08] come [6:09] >> it's an industry event all sorts of [6:12] people that you know and that more [6:14] importantly know you uh are there and I [6:17] think you would find it very very [6:18] helpful from a networking perspective so [6:20] >> all right let's Let's figure it out. [6:22] Maybe we'll uh I might enjoy Let's [6:25] figure I would love to do it. And I I [6:27] haven't been to Lake Tahoe in a million [6:28] years. So, I there's a lot of reasons [6:30] why I would love to be there. [6:31] >> Mark your I think it's July 6th or 7th [6:33] next year. Mark your calendar. [6:35] >> Okay. You got you got to you got to [6:36] deal. I got to check with the boss at [6:38] home. But, uh [6:39] >> we all do. [6:39] >> If I [laughter] get the green light. All [6:41] right. That sounds great. How we looking [6:43] everybody? Good. Nicole, you going to [6:45] click us up? [6:46] >> Here we go. Uh this is going to be a [6:47] great show. [6:57] >> [music] [7:01] >> It feels like there are two types of [7:02] investing platforms right now. You've [7:05] got the legacy [music] brokerages that [7:06] look like they were designed in 1997 and [7:09] then you've got [music] the new wave [7:11] that looked at investing and thought, [7:13] you know what this needs? Sports [7:15] betting. Neither seems like a great [7:17] place to build your wealth. [music] So [7:19] that's where Public comes in. It's the [7:21] modern investing platform for those who [7:23] take it seriously. Stocks, options, [7:26] bonds, crypto, [music] they have it all. [7:28] And the energy they're not spending on [7:31] building a casino. It's going into AI. [7:34] Public is the only investing platform [7:37] where you can create agents [music] that [7:39] can monitor the market, manage your [7:41] cash, and execute your trades. Just [7:43] enter a prompt, approve the workflow, [7:45] and put your agent to work. Go [music] [7:47] to pub.com/compound [7:50] to get started. That's [7:51] publicub.com/compound. [music] [7:54] Paid for by public investing. Full [7:57] disclosures in podcast description. [8:01] 251. I could feel it. This is going to [8:02] be a good one. [8:04] Ladies and gentlemen, we're now rocking [8:07] with the best investing podcast in [8:09] America, or so I'm told. I'm really [8:12] excited for this one. I've been thinking [8:13] about this all summer. We have a very [8:16] special guest. first time guest. His [8:18] name is Jonathan Thomas. Jonathan has [8:20] served as CEO and president of American [8:23] [music] Century Investments since 2007. [8:27] That's a long tenure uh in that seat. [8:29] We'll talk about it. Jonathan has [8:31] chaired its board since 2025. American [8:34] Century is a Kansas City-based asset [8:37] manager with over 300 billion in assets [8:40] whose ownership structure directs much [8:43] of its profits to the Sters [music] [8:45] Institute for Medical Research. He was [8:48] previously the global COO of Morgan [8:50] [music] Stanley's investment management [8:52] division where he also served as [8:55] president of Morgan [music] Stanley [8:56] Trust Company and chief risk officer for [9:00] investment management. Jonathan, welcome [9:02] to the show. [9:03] >> Thank you. Glad to be here. [9:04] >> So, when I hear Jonathan Thomas, I think [9:07] Jonathan Taylor Thomas Yes. [9:09] >> of Home Improvement, but you're a [9:10] different person. That's not also you. [9:12] >> I wouldn't mind if that was me, but no. [9:14] Sorry to hopefully I didn't surprise [9:16] you. [9:16] >> All right. Well, I also want to [9:18] introduce making his first appearance on [9:19] the Compounded Friends, but uh viewers [9:22] viewers know him, viewers love him. Sean [9:25] Russo is an investment analyst at Rholtz [9:27] supporting the investment committee [9:30] advisors and the compound channel. Well, [9:32] Sean co-authors the best stocks in the [9:34] market column with me focused on stocks [9:37] that have the best uptrends in the [9:39] market. Sean, how long have you been [9:40] with us? [9:40] >> Four and a half years. [9:41] >> Four and a half years. Welcome. [9:44] >> Sean is in uh Michael Batnik seat. [9:46] Michael is on assignment elsewhere. We [9:48] cannot disclose. [9:49] >> Filling in for the balds. [9:50] >> We cannot disclo. Where is he by the [9:51] way? I don't even know. All right. [9:52] >> Gallivanting. [9:53] >> All right. Michael's on vacation with [9:54] his family. All right. Uh guys, this is [9:57] going to be a lot of fun. Let's start [9:58] here. Tell the audience who have only [10:01] seen the golf tournament, what is [10:02] American Century Investments? [10:04] >> Okay. Yes, the Golf Tour. We can talk [10:06] about that, too. [clears throat] [10:07] >> So, American Century, we're just under [10:09] $350 billion asset manager. We're [10:12] privately held. Um, we are purposedriven [10:17] and we're a pure play organization. So [10:20] those three factors um are really [10:23] important to an informed uh client of [10:25] ours because you think about privately [10:27] held. We're not subject to the [10:29] >> not a public company. [10:30] >> Correct. Right. We're not we don't have [10:31] that quarterly earnings pressure which [10:33] allows us to invest and reinvest for the [10:35] long term. Pure play means we don't have [10:38] kind of the conflicts and constraints [10:40] that you might see from an organization [10:43] that's part of a larger bank or [10:44] insurance corporation. And then purpose- [10:47] driven uh as you mentioned earlier uh we [10:50] have a very unique capital structure [10:52] which ends up directing over 40% of our [10:55] dividends each and every year to the [10:57] Sters Institute for Medical Research [10:59] which supports over 500 scientists that [11:02] look for cures for cancer and other [11:04] gene-based diseases. It provides a level [11:08] of inspiration to our employees that's [11:10] almost hard to articulate. they, you [11:13] know, obviously we have a tremendous [11:14] sense of fiduciary duty to begin with, [11:17] but then knowing that by winning [11:18] business, retaining business, delighting [11:20] our clients, we're going to have a [11:21] positive impact on mankind. The last [11:24] thing I'd say is we do we have three [11:26] brands that we're affiliated with. We [11:27] have American Century Investments, we [11:30] have Avantis Investors, and then we have [11:32] Income America, and all of those are [11:34] tied to the company. [11:35] >> Okay. So, we're going to do the Star [11:36] stuff later in the show because I have [11:38] so many questions and I'm excited to [11:40] talk about it. Um, let's talk about you. [11:43] You uh go Fidelity, Bank of America, [11:47] Morgan Stanley, and then landed American [11:50] Century in 200 uh 2005. You become the [11:54] CEO two years later. Let's start right [11:57] there. Did you know that you were [11:59] walking into a situation where you could [12:00] potentially be the CEO of the whole [12:02] thing? [12:03] >> Yeah, that was um I've never really [12:06] chased the CEO title to tell you the [12:08] truth. Um, you know, I've always been [12:11] throughout my whole working life, uh, [12:13] somewhere in my 30s, I figured out that [12:15] what we do, all of us in this room, is [12:18] we help people. And I started thinking [12:21] about what I do, not as work, but as [12:24] helping others. And that has really [12:27] inspired me and motivated me throughout [12:29] my career. Um, I was out here in New [12:32] York, as you mentioned earlier, with [12:33] Morgan Stanley. I'm from the Midwest [12:36] originally. My wife is from the Midwest [12:38] originally and when American Century [12:41] Investments originally called us. Um I [12:44] thought it might be great to get back to [12:46] the Midwest roots. Um it was absolutely [12:48] a strong possibility that I could become [12:50] CEO, but I did start off there as CFO. [12:53] >> Okay. Sean's from the Midwest as well. [12:55] >> Where in the Midwest are you from? [12:56] >> Kansas City. [12:57] >> Okay. [12:57] >> And yourself? [12:58] >> I'm from Denver. So you must be a Chiefs [13:00] fan. [13:00] >> Uh yeah, I am. [13:02] >> We can cut it here. [laughter] [13:03] >> End end of the show, right? Uh what did [13:06] you learn working on operations and risk [13:10] um that gave you a unique perspective [13:13] stepping into that CEO seat at a large [13:15] asset manager? Because strikes me that [13:18] probably a lot of CEOs maybe start off [13:20] more management or money raising like [13:23] sort of like they're in a rain maker [13:25] position first. They build a name for [13:27] themselves. So you kind of came from [13:29] this more um operations and risk side at [13:31] least to start with. No, that's [13:33] >> uh how did that set you apart from other [13:35] people sitting in the seat and why was [13:37] that important for um your ability to [13:39] lead the organization? [13:40] >> Yeah, great question. Um so investment [13:43] management, investment performance is [13:45] the core of every asset manager. We need [13:47] to provide superior long-term [13:50] riskadjusted returns and the portfolio [13:53] managers who do that, they spend all of [13:55] their time focusing on optimizing a [13:58] portfolio, optimizing uh riskadjusted [14:00] returns. The path I took was absolutely [14:02] different. Uh you're right about that [14:04] Josh, but it was uh different in a way [14:07] that was very accretive. Um I was always [14:11] more or less in a chief operating [14:13] officer role. And when you think about [14:15] that, when you're in that role, you are [14:18] making all sorts of trade-offs between [14:21] talent, technology, regulation, capital [14:25] allocations, etc., etc., across a wide [14:28] group of functional areas. And that [14:33] capital allocation and those tradeoffs [14:35] is actually exactly what a CEO does. [14:37] You're constantly focused on, you know, [14:40] where can I invest, where can I [14:43] underinvest, what what matters to the [14:45] client. And so I think that broad range [14:48] of functions that I've overseen for the [14:50] bulk of my career really helped me with [14:52] that balancing act. [14:54] >> Yeah. Because it's because it's all [14:55] trade-offs. It is. [14:56] >> If you want to do more of something, [14:58] everybody has the same amount of hours [15:00] in the day. You're going to do less of [15:01] something else. [15:02] >> That's entirely right. [15:03] >> And the timing of these things is also [15:06] critical. So, [15:07] >> yes. [15:07] >> Okay. All right. Um, I wanted to ask you [15:11] just in general because you you've now [15:13] seen almost three decades in that in [15:15] that role. Has the job of running an [15:17] asset manager changed um materially in [15:21] all of that time? either because of [15:23] market forces or what investors want or [15:27] the availability of technology like what [15:29] are the big changes that you've seen in [15:31] in your time? [15:33] >> Yeah, it's a it's a huge question. I'll [15:34] answer multiple dimensions of it. [15:36] >> You have 30 seconds. No. [laughter] [15:38] >> Okay. So, I've been I've been doing this [15:40] for 40 years over 40 years actually. And [15:43] um you know back in the 80s and 90s I [15:45] >> was going to say you were on Wall Street [15:47] in the 80s when Wall Street was Wall [15:49] Street. Those are your formative years. [15:51] >> Yes. when they made movies about it or [15:53] when they later made movies about it. [15:54] Yes. [15:55] >> Um so [15:57] >> in the 80s and 90s the asset managers [16:00] own the client relationship. Almost [16:02] everybody had a direct to an asset [16:05] manager relationship. [16:06] >> So the consumer was like my money's with [16:09] Fidelity and they felt like they knew [16:11] Peter Lynch and that was like there [16:13] didn't there could be somebody in [16:15] between but there didn't have to be. [16:17] >> That's correct. Okay. Yeah. And and and [16:19] often though what they actually did they [16:20] had money with the big three back then [16:23] were actually the Fidelity Mellan Fund, [16:25] American Centuries Altra and the Janice [16:27] 20 Fund. Y [16:28] >> and so what they actually had was three [16:30] relationships. They got three statements [16:32] and you had this market rally that went [16:35] from 87 basically to 2000. Everybody [16:37] thought they were geniuses. They went to [16:39] cocktail parties. One guy said he had an [16:41] 80% the return. The next guy said he had [16:44] 104 and so they'd switch. Your your [16:46] horse in that race was Ken Hebner in [16:48] that era or was that later? [16:50] >> That was later. Got it. [16:52] >> So um then come along the 2000s and uh [16:55] the tech bubble burst and all of a [16:57] sudden all those individual direct [16:59] investors realized they needed [17:02] professional help. And so there was a [17:04] massive pivot uh away from the direct to [17:07] consumer relationship to advisors. and [17:10] we as an asset manager had to shift our [17:13] focus too to support advisors uh in the [17:16] industry and help you help your clients. [17:19] And so that was a massive pivot for us. [17:21] >> Yeah. [17:22] >> And then you know if you kind of look at [17:24] right where we are now I think there [17:27] might be a very very early signs of yet [17:29] another pivot taking place and that is [17:32] um pivot to platforms. So, so first the [17:36] asset manager owned the relationship, [17:38] then the advisor owned the relationship [17:40] and we had to pivot to support the [17:41] adviser. And now increasingly you see [17:44] platforms owning those relationships [17:46] whether retirement platforms or AI [17:50] assisted uh financial assistance and so [17:53] it's just shifting and you know I don't [17:56] know how far that will go. I think it [17:59] probably ends poorly because that trust [18:02] that's such so important in our business [18:05] and the relationships that you know you [18:08] build with your clients and at the end [18:10] of the day the advice is important but [18:12] it's the behavioral side that's so [18:15] critical with you know retail clients [18:18] that they need somebody to come to when [18:20] the markets go down and explain this is [18:22] not a time to abandon your investment [18:24] but rather a time to probably really [18:26] look at things as being unsafe. [18:29] The second part of your questions was [18:30] about technology and markets. Um, you [18:33] know, markets change and markets [18:36] determine winners on a year-to-year [18:38] basis. Um, and obvious but the whole [18:42] industry there's idio idiosyncratic [18:44] risk, but for the most part, the in the [18:46] industry moves in unison when markets go [18:49] up and down, right? The thing that [18:51] differentiates asset managers over a [18:53] longer period of time is technology and [18:55] whether it's the proper or improper use [18:58] of technology determines the winners [19:01] over longer periods of time as opposed [19:04] to the markets which has a shorter term [19:06] orientation. So, one of the one of the [19:09] big things about this platform uh moment [19:11] that you're describing and I totally [19:13] agree with you, you uh you now see [19:17] situations where the whole game becomes [19:19] about um distribution and uh taking [19:24] existing investment strategies and [19:26] fitting them into technological methods [19:29] of delivering them that go obviously go [19:31] beyond the open-end mutual fund. So like [19:33] one very obvious example is a lot of [19:36] firms are converting active strategies [19:39] into ETFs and then taking it a step [19:42] further now that we have a lot of [19:44] advisers using custom indexing. Yep. [19:46] >> You see a lot of asset management firms [19:48] saying, well, how can we take our secret [19:50] sauce and turn it over to a technology [19:53] platform that will enable advisors to [19:57] not allocate to a fund, but allocate to [20:00] the holdings of a fund individually and [20:03] then layer on tax loss harvesting and do [20:06] things where we're helping convert um [20:09] concentrated positions into more [20:11] diversity. you know, this this is a lot [20:13] of a lot of this is about how does our [20:15] brand translate to this next set of [20:18] platforms that are gaining popularity. [20:21] >> Yeah. So, we're in the early stages of [20:23] that. Uh you're right. I mean, there's [20:25] been a huge amount of press and hype [20:28] around this ETF share class. Um there [20:32] are firms that have successfully [20:34] converted existing funds into active [20:38] ETFs uh who've had some momentum. A lot [20:42] of that though ultimately results in [20:45] some fair level of cannibalism. And you [20:49] know what we've done with Avantis is and [20:52] by the way you start off with [20:53] distribution. I'll come back to Avantis [20:55] in a second. The other thing that that's [20:56] changed over the long period of time [20:58] they've been in this industry 20 30 [21:01] years ago 80% 75% of the asset managers [21:05] had positive net investment. Today it's [21:07] totally flipped. It's about 75% 80% or [21:11] negative. There's only [21:12] >> does that mean flows? Is that another [21:13] >> flows? Yeah. So purchases less [21:15] redemptions whether you're positive or [21:17] not. That's right. Um and that's [21:20] completely flipped. So distribution has [21:22] become very very important and the space [21:26] has gotten very crowded with Avantis. Uh [21:30] >> well before we go to Avantis I think you [21:32] made a really important point. [21:34] >> Um I remember reading magazine articles [21:38] about the mutual fund business in the [21:41] late 90s and it really was a feast. [21:44] Everybody saw flows. Everyone was making [21:47] money and if you wanted to see more [21:49] flows just buy more commercial time on [21:51] NBC, CBS like during the final four [21:54] tournament or whatever and it was like [21:56] magic. It would just work. [21:59] >> So many things have happened that we [22:00] don't have time to get into but like one [22:02] of the big ones is the attention span of [22:04] the American public has been so [22:06] fractured. It's not even clear how you [22:09] get attention for a brand. Um, you used [22:11] to be able to write one or two checks [22:13] and now you might have to engage in 700 [22:17] a thousand different media platforms to [22:20] get that same uh to get that same bang [22:23] for your buck. The other thing, and [22:25] maybe this is a little bit more of a of [22:27] a profound shift, is that one of the [22:31] things technology does by its nature is [22:34] it consolidates the winners and losers. [22:36] like the winners become cons. Um, and I [22:40] bring this up because yesterday Black [22:41] Rockck reported earnings. This is the [22:43] largest asset manager on Earth. [22:45] >> Yes, [22:45] >> they reported a 20% gain in AUM [22:50] year-over-year for this quarter. And [22:52] it's almost like, well, how is that even [22:54] possible? I do think it's this sort of [22:56] paro principle on steroids. And uh I I [23:00] don't know what the answer is, but there [23:02] are brands like Avantis that come along. [23:05] >> Yep. [23:05] >> That aren't Black Rockck, but they catch [23:07] fire anyway. So, you can still win. And [23:10] I think what the audience would love to [23:12] hear from you is what is that playbook [23:15] to start a brand and have it become one [23:18] of the hottest uh brands in terms of new [23:20] money coming in almost overnight? How [23:23] did you guys do it? And maybe tell us [23:25] what Avantis is in the process. [23:27] >> Sure. Another long long question with a [23:30] try to [23:30] >> I'm very good at those. [23:31] >> Yeah, I'm trying to keep it all straight [23:33] in my head. So, yeah. So, Black Rockck [23:36] is massive. Vanguard's m massive, State [23:38] Street, but one of the things that and [23:41] and the 20% year-over-year improvement [23:44] is massive. But you got to remember if [23:46] you look over the last five years, the [23:49] including 20, what was it 2022 when the [23:52] market was down 18%. On average, the [23:54] markets are up 16%. So you got a 16% [23:58] market capital. [23:59] >> Big tailwind. [24:00] >> Yeah. Huge tailwind. And then there's [24:01] flows on top of that. [24:03] >> You know, I think the black rocks and [24:04] the vanguards of the world have [24:07] developed kind of a reputation for being [24:10] safe. I think there was actually a [24:11] misunderstanding for a long time that [24:13] indexing was safe. Uh because everyone [24:17] said they don't take any risk. What many [24:19] people didn't understand is that's risk [24:21] in the form of deviation from a [24:23] benchmark as opposed to [24:25] >> say for advisors if I recommend Vanguard [24:28] or or Eyesshares to a client I'm not [24:31] going to have enough deviation where the [24:33] client says what the hell are you doing [24:34] in a bull market cuz I'll be neck and [24:37] neck with that bull market right that's [24:39] the safety is for the intermediary [24:41] correct not for the end user the end [24:42] user is going to have the volatility of [24:44] the market so this be you're 100% right [24:47] this became more about career safety for [24:50] the people recommending the funds. [24:52] >> Yeah. And what's happened with Avantis, [24:54] I think there's two things that have [24:55] really driven it. One, going back to [24:57] your business, if you have a client and [24:59] they look in their portfolio and it's [25:00] all Vanguard and Black Rockck, I think [25:02] it somewhat begs the question, how [25:04] >> what do I need you for? [25:05] >> Yeah. How hard are you working for me? [25:07] Um, you know, uh, Vontas kind of splits [25:10] the difference between active and [25:12] passive investing. They are lowcost, [25:15] highly diversified. [25:17] um building blocks that allow people [25:21] give them the opportunity to outperform [25:23] the benchmark. And to put that into real [25:25] numbers, um the whole thing launched in [25:29] 2019, so we don't have any 10-year [25:31] records, but of the products that we [25:33] have that have five-year records. Uh [25:36] there were five of them. [25:36] >> They're all ETFs, by the way. [25:38] >> All well, we had when we originally [25:40] launched, we had ETFs and mutual funds [25:42] side by side priced exactly the same. [25:45] >> Okay. Um though the flows have been 90% [25:48] into the ETFs and [25:50] >> that's what the advisers want to use. [25:51] >> Yeah. Well, they're they're cheap. [25:53] They're liquidicient. Yeah. And if I [25:55] don't know who you clear through, but [25:57] Schwab was the first the other thing [25:59] that people don't talk about on ETFs on [26:00] the adoption. They talk about intraday [26:02] liquidity. They talk about low price and [26:04] they talk about tax efficiency. The [26:06] other thing that changed it in this [26:07] country as much as anything else that [26:10] doesn't get the press, Schwab, if you [26:13] remember, which is interesting because [26:14] they're publicly traded, was the first [26:16] one to offer free ETF trading, no [26:19] commission ETF trading. Yes. [26:20] >> And that was a gigantic talent for the [26:22] business. [26:23] >> We had it at TD. [26:24] >> Oh, you did have it at TD. Okay. [26:25] >> And uh but you but you're right. That's [26:27] a that's a huge adoption [26:30] uh vehicle to tell people we're not [26:33] going to charge your clients or you [26:35] anything for you to allocate to ETFs and [26:38] here's the menu. Here are the ETFs that [26:40] are available for no commission. It was [26:43] huge. [26:44] >> Yeah. And Fidelity followed almost [26:45] immediately. It was probably a week or [26:47] two behind. So for all the advisors who [26:49] clear through them, it just changed the [26:51] game immediately. [26:52] >> 100%. So anyways, going back to Avantis, [26:55] so um of the five that have been in the [26:57] market since 2019, [27:00] um the average fee on those is 26 pips. [27:04] The average looks more like passive than [27:06] active. [27:06] >> Correct. And in fact, if you look at [27:08] their passive equivalent indexes because [27:11] in the morning star category, the [27:12] average of that fee is 19. So you're [27:14] paying seven more bips for the [27:17] opportunity to outperform. And for the [27:20] products that we launched, those first [27:21] five, on average, we've outperformed the [27:25] bench by 280 bips. So you're spending [27:28] seven bits. [27:29] >> That's remarkable. [27:30] >> That's annually to get an extra 280. And [27:33] then on top of that, uh those first [27:35] five, every one of them now is over $10 [27:38] billion and we of assets and we actually [27:41] have 10 over a billion. And one of the [27:44] reasons that's growing so fast, and this [27:47] is something that's fairly unique to [27:49] what we're doing, whether it's large cap [27:52] growth, small cap value, emerging [27:55] markets, we use the same exact investing [27:59] philosophy across every single asset [28:02] class. So if you like a particular [28:04] product, call it US large cap growth, [28:07] and you like the philosophy and you like [28:09] the approach, you're going to like the [28:11] other ones as well. the whole suite [28:12] makes sense. [28:13] >> Correct. And for the advisor, I think it [28:15] becomes super easy to explain to their [28:18] client. They don't if you have seven [28:20] positions, uh you don't have to learn [28:22] seven different investment philosoph [28:24] philosophies. You only have to use one. [28:27] And I so when you throw in you know all [28:29] the benefits of ETFs plus free trading [28:32] low cost the outperformance the look in [28:35] the portfolio where it's not just [28:37] Vanguard and and Black Rockck and then [28:39] you look at the opportunity not just the [28:41] opportunity the realization of the [28:42] outperformance it's a real really [28:45] compelling case and then the story being [28:48] consistent across every asset class [28:50] because that's another thing that's very [28:51] very hard for asset managers going back [28:54] many years everybody bought the hot [28:56] ones. And that resulted in a portfolio [28:59] of uh from an asset manager's [29:01] perspective where you got your client [29:03] has one product and under Avantis one of [29:06] the things that's accelerated the growth [29:08] so much is that when people buy us they [29:11] tend to buy three or four positions once [29:13] they buy [29:14] >> right so the adviser right the adviser [29:17] learns the advantist philosophy [29:20] and says okay actually this makes sense [29:22] to me [29:23] >> y [29:23] >> and I can make it make sense to my [29:25] client. So then it's like, well, if [29:28] we're doing large cap value the Avantis [29:30] way, we don't think the market is [29:32] materially different at the small cap [29:34] level, right? [29:35] >> Like we if we think this philosophy [29:37] makes sense here, why wouldn't we also [29:39] do the same thing here? And that's how [29:41] you really win with advisors. You become [29:43] a go-to for multiple tools in the [29:46] toolbox, [29:46] >> right? And multiple positions. It makes [29:48] their life easier. It shows that they've [29:51] done some spade work to get there. And [29:53] then on top of that, I have to say [29:54] there's a massive tailwind in the [29:56] industry. So, uh, ET active ETFs, uh, [30:00] this year, this is probably a month or [30:02] so data, but it's roughly, uh, correct, [30:05] 40% of the yeartoate ETF flows have gone [30:09] into active ETFs. Yeah. [30:11] >> Um, the the category uh has grown over [30:16] 50% over the last five years and the [30:21] whole space. So it's not just Avantis, [30:23] it's the category. When we entered the [30:26] space in 2018 with American Century [30:29] ETFs, there was $50 billion in it. It [30:32] had one or two% of the ETF space. Today [30:35] there's uh it's approaching 11 billion, [30:38] pardon me, $2 trillion and 11% market [30:42] share. So the adoption not just of [30:44] Avantis, but of active ETFs has been [30:46] huge. And what's fascinating about that [30:49] is for years, you know this, both of you [30:51] guys know this, everyone said active is [30:53] dead. Nobody's buying active anymore. [30:55] And it what it really turned out to be [30:57] is it was the other attributes, the [31:00] fees, the building blocks, transparency. [31:04] Yeah. So, I've given Kathy Wood credit [31:07] for kicking the door down and having the [31:09] first mainstream popular active ETF. Not [31:13] as an endorsement of how she invests, [31:16] >> but [31:16] >> she built I mean this is pandemic era. [31:20] >> We we sort of had a bubble in you know [31:22] lowquality high growth exponential tech [31:25] stories. She built her brand in that [31:27] era, but she was the first one to have a [31:30] $50 billion aum actively managed ETF [31:34] shop. Uh I mean it's it hasn't gone well [31:37] in in the last couple of years, but she [31:39] really sort of was a pioneer for that [31:42] type of uh product. And then I think a [31:45] lot of uh other asset managers looked at [31:47] that and said, "Okay, [31:49] we we now think there actually is an [31:52] audience for people that want ETFs but [31:55] want stockpicking in those ETFs and want [31:58] something different than just another [32:00] benchmark product. [32:01] >> Yeah. Uh she was a pioneer and and that [32:04] the asset she gathered there on that [32:07] momentum and techoriented style of [32:09] investing was super super impressive. [32:11] The other tailwind we didn't talk about, [32:13] there was a rule, I might not get this [32:15] right, I think it was called 6C11 or [32:16] something like that. It came out in [32:18] 2019. It's more commonly known as the [32:21] ETF rule. And up until that rule came [32:24] out, uh, in order to do an active ETF, [32:28] you had to get SEC exemptive exemptive [32:30] relief [32:31] >> one by one. Yeah. [32:32] >> So, the ability to get that relief, the [32:34] uncertainty, the time to market was [32:36] huge. And when they came out with that [32:39] rule change, that also was a massive [32:42] tailwind to the space. [32:43] >> Um there was a there was a philosophy [32:46] out there that the portfolio managers [32:49] who were managing active funds really [32:52] really cared about the secrecy and the [32:55] ability to wait 45 days before filing [32:57] whatever their trades were for the [32:59] quarter. [33:00] >> That ended up not being true. or maybe [33:02] some of them care. But now all of these [33:05] active ETFs for the most part are not [33:08] hiding what they traded. In fact, [33:10] they're proud of it. It's fully [33:12] transparent. It's on everyone's website. [33:14] You can download it that night. What [33:16] funds traded what. And the world didn't [33:18] come to an end. [33:19] >> Yeah. [33:20] >> Like it's sort of like everyone now is [33:22] just like, "Okay, cool. They bought [33:23] this. They sold that." [33:24] >> How could How could you be an adviser [33:26] and have one of those hidden ETFs and [33:27] not even like be able to attribute? [33:29] >> And that's why they want, right? That's [33:31] That's why they weren't popular. Yeah. [33:33] >> Yeah. It's um to be real honest with you [33:35] guys, our first attempt in the ETF space [33:38] was actually the semi-transparent active [33:41] space. And we use the word semi in this [33:44] industry a lot when it really means not [33:46] at all. Um [33:47] >> like semiquid funds. [33:48] >> Well, that's what I was talking about. [33:50] Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] [33:51] Semi-transparency sound just sounds like [33:53] it's not going to be transparent, [33:55] >> right? And it [laughter] wasn't. But we [33:57] started with that and one of my [33:59] management philosophies is you got to [34:01] take risk, right? If you don't take [34:02] risk, you don't take it. You don't [34:04] really uh gain a competitive advantage. [34:06] But if it doesn't work, you have to fail [34:08] fast. You can't become emotionally wed [34:10] to the idea. So the first ones we rolled [34:12] out largely because of our portfolio [34:14] managers concerned that there'd be free [34:16] riding and front uh front runnable too. [34:19] It that's a fair concern. [34:20] >> We rolled those out and there was just [34:23] no uptake. And so we fa we recognized [34:26] the market didn't want it that wasn't on [34:28] wasn't hedgible and we pivoted very [34:30] quickly to the fully transparent and [34:32] that's how we got off and running. [34:34] >> So congratulations Avantis hit $150 [34:37] billion in AUM. It took you guys 6 and a [34:40] half years and might be a record. I [34:42] don't know of another asset management [34:45] uh fund that's or company that's sprung [34:48] up in the last couple of years that's [34:50] been able to do that. Why are your f you [34:52] know not making a forward-looking [34:53] statement? Why do you think your funds [34:56] have been outperforming? What is it that [34:58] you guys are doing that other fund [35:00] families in the peer group are not [35:02] doing? And um how sustainable are these [35:06] edges uh going going forward? [35:08] >> Yeah. So you're you're absolutely right. [35:10] Far more asset managers are going away [35:13] than are coming. There's not a lot of [35:15] new launches lately. [35:16] >> No, it's it's miraculous, but you guys [35:18] did it. And you know, if I had to kind [35:20] of pull it apart, I go, you know, part [35:22] of it is the team. You know, we started [35:25] this denovo. It was wasn't an [35:26] acquisition. Um, [35:28] >> I had breakfast with Eduardo, uh, [35:31] Eduardo probably a million years ago [35:33] approximately. [35:34] >> Okay. [35:35] >> Uh, [laughter] we went to Myelino before [35:37] it was closed and then reopened. I think [35:39] I had the frittata. Okay. [35:40] >> I don't remember much. I don't remember [35:41] that much of what was said, but I [35:43] remember talking factor investing with [35:45] Eduardo before the launch of Avantis. [35:48] So, I've been doing, as I said earlier, [35:49] I've been doing this for over 40 years. [35:51] Eduardo is one of the most virtuous, [35:55] smartest, [35:57] client centric person I've ever worked [35:59] with. He's just unbelievable. And that [36:02] those attributes, even though they sound [36:04] very fluffy, um, are real tangible [36:08] differentiators in how that business is [36:10] run. his focus on delighting clients and [36:14] and and really exceeding expectations is [36:16] strong. But so the big thing is that you [36:19] know it's a why do people like it? It's [36:22] low fee as we talked about. It's ETF so [36:24] it has all of those advantages. Uh it's [36:26] highly diversified and so you don't have [36:29] the volatility that comes along with you [36:33] know the active management. The other [36:35] thing that's changed you asked a [36:36] question earlier Josh about what's [36:37] changed over the years. At one point [36:39] there was, you know, large portfolios [36:42] and everybody wanted small portfolios. [36:44] My what I mean by that small number of [36:45] names, but that created a kind of a [36:48] worst to first uh uh path. And now [36:51] people want to just kind of beat the [36:53] bench. And I think what people don't [36:55] understand is even if you're in an index [36:57] fund, each index fund is run differently [37:00] as well. You can get very very different [37:02] returns based on you know s things as [37:05] simple as equal or market cap weighted [37:09] but what [37:10] >> more variety on the value side too [37:12] correct like what constitutes a value [37:14] index could you could have radically [37:16] different results. Yeah, some of the [37:18] things that are in value now would blow [37:19] people's mind. Yeah. [37:20] >> But um I think what really happened was [37:22] is uh Eduardo kind of pulled this and [37:25] his whole leadership team pulled this [37:27] apart and said what's going to create [37:29] greater expected returns in the future. [37:32] So it's less about predicting and more [37:34] about relying on what we call financial [37:37] science and academically driven research [37:41] that drives the portfolios and it's a [37:43] huge differentiator. There are not many [37:46] of us in the entire industry doing this. [37:48] Now, there's a lot of copycats trying to [37:50] come in right now because of the [37:51] momentum we have, but uh it's it's going [37:54] to be tough to beat the performance and [37:56] then the scale that we have right now. [37:58] >> There's there's so many funds DFA, [38:00] Schwab, Fidelity, like how do you [38:02] differentiate yourselves because [38:03] everyone has their own small cut value [38:04] and factor like how do you differentiate [38:06] yourselves from the competitors like [38:07] DFA? [38:08] >> So, DFA is a good one. So, um, you know, [38:11] they are a shop that at first, you know, [38:13] it was a cult-like following. I, you [38:16] know, you guys are probably aware you, [38:17] in order to sell DFA, you actually had [38:21] to be approved to sell it. [38:23] >> We We got into the cult. [38:24] >> Oh, you did? Okay. Yeah. [38:25] >> But no, but you're right. They they did [38:28] not, [38:28] >> to their credit, and I always admired [38:31] this about them, and we're the same way [38:33] um with our clients, you could not just [38:36] walk in the door and say, "Give me a [38:37] dimensional fund." you had to prove to [38:39] them that you were a serious adviser [38:41] that was not going to um have clients [38:45] who are mass selling in a market [38:48] downturn for example and uh I I always [38:50] admire and we our our uh welcome indoor [38:54] is not that wide either like you have to [38:56] have a financial plan to invest with us [38:58] we don't just take checks from people [39:00] because they like me on TV so I I I like [39:03] that aspect of what they did [39:04] >> yeah and you know they're a very worthy [39:06] competitor and probably of everybody in [39:08] the industry, they're the most like us. [39:10] Yeah. [39:11] >> Uh you know, we really focused uh when [39:13] we compete with them head-on, we really [39:15] focus on fees, obviously performance. [39:18] And you know, the other thing we have [39:19] is, you know, they're what nearly a [39:22] trillion dollars probably now 8 8 900 [39:25] billion. We're 150 billion. So our [39:28] agility and nimleness and client [39:31] centricity is just much easier to [39:33] execute. And you know, we can really [39:35] rally around that that cult that they [39:37] build, you know, was disrupted because [39:40] when you sell just mutual funds, which [39:41] was what they used to do, uh you can [39:44] really control who buys it. Soon as they [39:46] launched ETFs, you're on [39:48] >> tomorrow. It's up to the market. [39:49] >> Correct. Yeah, you got it [39:50] >> right. And and you know, at a certain [39:53] the cannibalization argument also is is [39:56] real where you say, "All right, we've [39:58] got this 40 act mutual fund. It's been [40:00] around for 30 years. Everybody who's in [40:03] it likes it, everyone's happy. Um, but [40:07] the future buyer, the future allocator [40:10] is a financial adviser who may be [40:12] building an all ETF model portfolio and [40:15] th this that firm hypothetical firm may [40:18] ramp from a 100 million under management [40:21] to 5 billion. We're not going to compete [40:24] for any of that. Like we're not going to [40:25] be there at all. So at a certain point, [40:27] you have to just say, "All right, we got [40:29] to figure out this ETF share class. We [40:32] have to be okay with assets migrating [40:34] from the 40 act fund into that rapper." [40:36] >> Yes, [40:37] >> we may make less on it because ETFs on [40:39] average were cheaper than and this is [40:42] just like we we have to decide. We're [40:44] either going to do it or we're not. [40:46] >> A lot of firms at this point have now [40:48] done it. Many of them probably wish that [40:51] they bit the bullet 10 years earlier [40:52] than they did. Yeah, it's I talked [40:55] earlier about the stats on how the [40:56] market's grown, right? It was one or [40:58] two% when we got into it. It's 11% now. [41:01] >> Yeah. [41:02] >> And um you know, the other thing it's [41:04] done, uh Josh, is it's completely [41:06] disrupted. This is so cool and [41:08] energizing to me [41:10] >> for a long time. I'll call it the [41:12] hierarchy in the mutual fund space was [41:15] pretty established. Now, the reality of [41:17] it is the order really didn't change [41:19] much over the last 20 years. The [41:22] distance changed a lot from Black Rockck [41:24] and Vanguard and Fidelity. They became [41:26] much larger, but the order more or less [41:29] stayed the same. Moving to ETFs, all of [41:33] a sudden it was a jump ball. And um you [41:37] know here we sit you know we're [41:38] somewhere around the 20th largest asset [41:40] manager but if you look in the ETF space [41:43] because we were early uh because we [41:46] focused we started it from scratch so we [41:48] could really dial it into exactly what [41:50] uh clients and advisers wanted. You know [41:53] we're now the fourth largest active ETF [41:56] issuer in the country. Uh, and if you [41:59] look at all ETFs, including all the [42:02] passive ones that are out there, we're [42:03] either 12th or 13th. So, in a business [42:07] that we've been in since 1958 on the [42:10] fund side, we're somewhere around 20 for [42:13] the ETF side, we're, you know, top 10 [42:16] almost top 10 overall and top five in [42:19] terms of active ETF issues. So, it's [42:21] been exhilarating to have this pivot [42:24] take place and the opportunity to have a [42:26] jailbreak candidly. Yeah. [42:28] >> Uh for all of us who've been in that [42:30] hierarchy for so long. [42:31] >> Yeah. 20 could go to 10. [42:33] >> Yes. [42:33] >> It could absolutely happen. You're also [42:35] in a very specific lane. You're not [42:38] competing in the thematic ETFs, the [42:40] single stock ETFs, the leveraged ETFs. [42:43] You guys are doing something that's very [42:45] specific. And um it's uh it's not like [42:50] you're you it's not like you're firing [42:52] up the spaghetti cannon to see what you [42:54] know, it seems like a much more [42:55] disciplined levered ETFs. [42:58] >> No, we don't. And we look at them, you [43:00] know, when we see all of our competitors [43:02] launching, you know, single stock [43:03] levered and, you know, trip all the [43:05] >> Not that there's anything wrong with [43:06] those products, but what you guys are [43:08] doing is very much specific to an [43:11] investment philosophy versus what do I [43:14] think we can get somebody to buy next [43:15] month. [43:16] >> Yeah, it's for us it's core portfolio [43:18] holdings that are truly in the client's [43:21] best interest and all of everything [43:23] we've built on the ETF side. One of the [43:25] other big differences between funds and [43:27] ETFs is when when funds get too big, in [43:30] order to continue to generate alpha, we [43:32] they have to get closed. And that's [43:34] extremely disruptive as well to the [43:36] adviser who now has to if they have it [43:39] in a model, they have to reallocate or [43:40] find something else. The ETFs, we've [43:43] built them so that they can uh scale uh [43:46] perpetually. So even like a small cap [43:49] stock, because of the number of names we [43:51] have in there, we can continue to scale. [43:53] So that's been another huge advantage to [43:56] ETFs in general, but specifically the [43:58] way we've built the Avantis. [43:59] >> Before we move off Avantis itself, y [44:01] >> I do have to tell you, you have a hall [44:04] of fame wholesaler uh at your firm, [44:08] Carolyn Gainner, [44:09] >> one of the one of my favorite humans [44:11] that I've ever met and uh just an [44:13] absolute rock star. I hope she's the CEO [44:15] after you. Um I I want to ask you how do [44:19] the other children feel in the family [44:22] when uh Avantis is getting this much [44:25] attention, this much positive momentum, [44:27] all the money is flowing in. Um like how [44:30] do how do the other verticals within [44:33] American Century kind of cope cope with [44:36] that level of attention? [44:37] >> Yeah. Well, we've talked about Avantis [44:39] because we have 40 some odd products [44:41] there and the assets have grown very [44:42] big. But we actually also have our first [44:45] ETFs were actually, [44:47] >> if you remember this term, this is from [44:49] 2018, smart beta, another rule before my [44:52] time. [44:52] >> We don't we don't use that term anymore. [44:54] >> No, no, that that that's a that was an [44:55] 8-year-old term. Those were our first [44:57] ones. They were on the American country [44:58] side. And then I told you we did the [45:00] non-transparent or semi-transparent uh [45:03] activives. That didn't work. But [45:05] eventually we've launched a bunch of [45:07] American Century ETFs as well. Yeah. [45:10] >> And those are also gathering assets and [45:12] are in positive net investment. The [45:15] problem that every [45:16] >> you love all your children equally. [45:18] >> Yes. But mutual funds for us and our [45:21] competitors uh remain in huge negative [45:24] outflow and so that's hard for us. But [45:26] the ETFs no matter what brand they are [45:28] are all growing for us. [45:29] >> Okay. That's awesome. I want to do some [45:31] market stuff with you. [45:32] >> Let's talk stocks. [45:32] >> Let's talk Let's talk stocks. Let's talk [45:35] uh let's talk uh earning. We'll start [45:37] with earnings growth. Um analysts are [45:40] now expecting 23.2% year-over-year [45:42] earnings growth for the S&P in the [45:44] quarter that we are just now getting the [45:47] earliest reports. The financials uh [45:50] reported knocked it out of the park. Um [45:53] and we're pointing out here excluding [45:55] the mag 7 earnings are still expected to [45:58] grow 20.9%. So it's not just hypers [46:01] scalar stuff. 10 of 11 sectors will grow [46:04] earnings this quarter. And yes, the [46:06] biggest contribution will come from [46:08] tech. [46:08] >> Daniel, can you chart one short, [46:10] >> which is uh 65%. [46:12] >> I mean, that's just nuts. 65% growth [46:14] year-over-year [46:15] >> for Oh, for [46:16] >> for technology. [46:17] >> Yeah, it's crazy. [46:18] >> So, I guess my first question would be [46:21] from a from a top- down standpoint, [46:23] you'd have to agree this is one of the [46:25] great bull markets that you've ever [46:26] seen. I've ever seen. [46:28] >> Yeah. So, if you go back to 0809, [46:31] uh we had a little blip in the first [46:33] quarter of 16. That was rough. [46:36] >> 2022 was bad, but other than that, it's [46:39] been 17 great years. Yeah, absolutely. [46:43] >> And uh [46:43] >> would you like to predict the end of it [46:45] or or [laughter] no? Have we all given [46:47] up on even thinking about when this ends [46:49] or what what do you think? [46:50] >> I mean, if you kind of look at the three [46:52] things that I really think about, you [46:53] got the economy, right? We have done [46:56] everything possible in the last year or [46:58] two to disrupt the economy, right? We we [47:01] created a war. Uh we implemented [47:04] tariffs. Uh we got a new Fed chairman [47:08] who nobody can quite pin down uh what he [47:11] where he where he's actually going to [47:12] go. [47:13] >> Iffy labor market. [47:14] >> Uh very iffy labor market and a lot of [47:16] uncertainty around what AI is going to [47:18] do uh ultimately to that labor market. [47:20] If you read the Centrini report, you [47:22] think it's doom and gloom, which is just [47:24] fascinating, that whole thing. [47:26] >> But at the end of the day, the economy [47:27] is proving to be very resilient. There's [47:29] >> accelerating. [47:30] >> It is. Yeah. There's no signs whatsoever [47:33] of uh any sort of imminent correction. [47:36] Inflation, while elevated, um is kind of [47:39] in line with expectations. And then the [47:42] most recent read we'd had was what three [47:43] and a half% versus a a call a whisper [47:47] number of 38 and 42 the previous month. [47:50] It was the biggest single month drop in [47:53] six years. And you know obviously very [47:55] attributable to um to the oil shock and [47:59] uh the temp what's turned out to be the [48:01] temporary uh uh ceasefire. And then [48:05] finally the consumer. you know, the [48:06] consumer, especially on the high end, [48:08] continues to earn and continues to [48:11] spend. So, you know, as we look to the [48:13] back half of the year and even beyond [48:15] that, you know, we kind of see a steady [48:17] as she goes environment. Um, and you [48:20] know, there's a lot of questions that we [48:21] I'm sure you'll talk about ask me about [48:23] AI and I have some real interesting [48:25] views on that, but you know, that's [48:27] going to be a very big determinant of [48:29] where all this ends up. [48:31] >> Our colleague Ben Carlson tweeted this. [48:33] I thought it was funny. He said, "Is [48:34] this the most normal year possible for [48:36] markets? The US stock market's up 11%. [48:38] GDP is in the 2 to 3% 2 to 3% range. [48:42] Inflation sits at 3 and a half% and the [48:43] 10-year Treasury yield is yielding 4 and [48:45] a.5%." [48:46] >> Yeah. So funny. All all those headlines [48:49] and like everything about all of the [48:52] most important stats is like fairly [48:54] within the normal range. [48:56] >> Part of that though is this broadening [48:59] out uh of the winners and losers. You [49:02] guys, you talked about Meg 7 a second [49:04] ago. You know what's happening now is [49:08] and we're at the very early stage of [49:10] this for a while. I'll call it the [49:12] creators. The creators and the enablers [49:15] of AI were just soaring and now what's [49:19] starting to happen is the adopters are [49:22] starting to couldn't agree more [49:24] >> to receive the benefit from it. So that [49:26] that concentration of the creators at [49:28] the beginning drove the market like [49:30] crazy. Now the adopters are getting the [49:33] benefit. And I think ultimately the the [49:36] winners and losers will be determined by [49:39] who adopt it and who's who's deploying [49:41] it correctly. But it is a um I think it [49:44] has a lot of legs and you know I'm sure [49:47] you in fact I was sitting out in your [49:48] lobby. By the way, your office has a [49:50] great vibe. It feels like a family in [49:53] here. You can feel the trust and the uh [49:55] >> everybody's under 30. [49:56] >> Yeah, I noticed that too. [49:57] >> I'm the old I'm the old man here. Well, [49:59] until I showed up. [50:00] >> Gladly. Gladly. Um, [50:02] >> thank you for saying that. I appreciate [50:03] that. [50:03] >> Yeah. Uh, but any rate, the um I forgot [50:06] what I was on. But but yeah, the uh I [50:08] think the adopters and if you look at [50:09] the S&P, I just looked at this last week [50:12] for I was doing something uh in the [50:14] press. 24 year to uh year-to- date [50:17] market highs this year, 57 the year [50:20] before, 57 the year before that, zero in [50:24] 22 and 23 and 21 had 70 market highs. [50:28] And everybody gets nervous around market [50:29] highs thinking, oh, you know, I'm going [50:31] to come in at the top tick. But if you [50:33] look back over those last five years, [50:36] it's more indicative of an ongoing bull [50:38] market than it is sort of any sort of an [50:41] imminent recession or or pullback. [50:43] >> So glad you said that. The new meme [50:45] going around now is that it actually [50:46] it's an earnings bubble. It's not a they [50:49] can't say it's a stock bubble because [50:52] the biggest most visible growth stocks [50:54] in the market have shrinking multiples [50:56] this year. Yes. [50:57] >> In a bubble. It goes the other way. [50:59] >> Yes. [51:00] >> We're paying more for earnings in a [51:01] bubble. [51:02] >> So, so what the the uh the bears have [51:05] pivoted to is Oh, no. No. We're not [51:08] saying the stock's in a bubble now. [51:10] We're actually saying profitability is [51:12] and maybe they'll be right. I don't want [51:13] to mock [51:13] >> Daniel. Can you show a chart, too? [51:14] >> Yeah. I don't want to mock people just [51:16] for having that opinion because it sort [51:19] of does look unsustainable when you when [51:21] you look at earnings growth through this [51:23] prism. Sean, what's what are we looking [51:24] at here? [51:25] >> This some This is from Chart Kid. So, [51:27] Pix did something really interesting. [51:28] You're looking in in the dark blue, [51:30] you're looking at actual EPS and in the [51:33] in the light blue, it's the previous [51:35] year's estimate, okay, [51:36] >> of what that earnings would be. And so, [51:39] generally outside of recessions, [51:40] analysts nail it. They nail earnings [51:43] unless it's 2001, 2002, 20209, and then [51:47] 2020. So, for the most part, analysts [51:49] are actually right. [51:50] >> The verticality is the thing that [51:52] bothers me of the the next year's [51:55] estimates. [51:55] >> Yeah. And it is funny though, right? I [51:57] mean, if you look back at the previous [51:59] bubbles using that word, um I'm looking [52:02] at you have them marked on your chart [52:03] here, which makes it super handy. [52:05] >> Yeah. [52:05] >> Um you know, the 2001 one, you know [52:09] what's really funny about that? Nobody I [52:11] haven't really seen this in the press, [52:13] but that was driven by the internet, [52:15] right? Everybody thought the internet's [52:17] going to change everything and it's all [52:18] going to be different. [52:19] >> Another capex bubble. [52:20] >> A huge capex bubble. And if you [52:22] remember, the poster child back then for [52:26] a bubble company was actually Pets.com. [52:29] That was the poster child for a bad idea [52:31] driven by the internet. [52:33] >> Um, and really the internet took a long [52:37] time to really crystallize its full [52:39] effect. I'd go as far as to say it [52:42] wasn't until the pandemic in 2020 where [52:45] the where the effect of the internet [52:49] that was imagined in 2000 really was [52:51] fully realized when everybody had to go [52:54] remote and nobody went to the stores [52:56] etc. 089 there was a lot of contributing [52:59] factors but we know the the lending and [53:01] the mortgage was a big part of it. 2020 [53:04] was really a one quarter thing, but I [53:06] think when you look at this, we've never [53:09] had And actually, what's funny about [53:11] going back to pets.com, thinking about [53:13] that, what's the big uh uh animal thing [53:16] right now? [53:16] >> Chewy. [53:17] >> Chewy. It's the same dog. [53:18] >> The idea was good. We weren't ready for [53:20] it. [53:20] >> That's correct. So, Chewy is doing very [53:23] well. It's new. Uh and it's the same [53:26] exact concept of pets.com. Its timing [53:28] was just better. And the full [53:30] realization of the internet came. So [53:32] when I look at this chart, I think the [53:34] concept of an earnings bubble, I've [53:35] heard that as well. I love the things [53:37] that Wall Street comes up with. I like [53:39] the word chipwreck that was flashed [53:40] around a couple weeks ago. I like that. [53:42] But um the earnings bubble, earnings, uh [53:45] as you say, the the multiples are coming [53:47] down while the earnings are going up for [53:49] some of the big ones at least. [53:50] >> Can you do chart seven, Daniel? [53:52] >> And I think a big part of that is going [53:54] back to the adopters of AI as opposed to [53:57] just the creators. So, here's a really [53:59] great example right in all of our faces. [54:02] This is the biggest stock in the world. [54:03] This is Nvidia [54:05] >> and [snorts] uh the growth rate [54:07] obviously has been extraordinary, but [54:09] the stock price is no longer reacting to [54:12] earnings upside to higher guidance to [54:17] analyst upgrades. It's getting cheaper [54:19] and cheaper and cheaper even as there's [54:22] really no deceleration. There's no there [54:25] are no there are no negatives in any [54:27] earning. [54:28] >> So what the market is basically saying [54:30] is [54:31] >> we're bored with Nvidia. We get it. We [54:33] get it. They own AI. They own the GPU. I [54:37] also think there's a story in here about [54:39] competition coming in the form of you [54:41] know uh application specific integrated [54:44] circuits and the chips of the [54:46] hyperscalers and whatever else uh models [54:50] large language models that use less uh [54:53] GPU whatever it is this is not a bubble [54:57] this would be a bubble if Nvidia's [54:59] multiple had gone from 30 to 90 times [55:01] earnings didn't happen this is a [55:03] discount to the market [55:04] >> it's a huge discount and like I I and I [55:06] agree. I think competition is a big part [55:08] of it. I mean, they were the first ones [55:09] out of the gate to really own I'll call [55:11] it the eight [55:12] >> 90% market share and now they're not [55:14] going to. [55:14] >> Yeah. Right. [55:15] >> Yeah. But I don't you know at the end of [55:17] the day you know there's always a horse [55:19] race and the leaders switch quite a bit. [55:21] You know the government's invest in [55:23] investment in Intel fascinates me too. [55:25] But you know I think Nvidia is going to [55:28] be a player for a very very long time. [55:31] Um, and when I see this and other charts [55:34] like it, I think there's just a concern, [55:36] a not yet to be realized concern that [55:38] the spending that's going on there might [55:41] end a little bit sooner than people had [55:43] originally predicted. But if the [55:46] >> So that's where the earnings bubble [55:47] comes from. The companies are over [55:49] earning relative to what happens when [55:52] this capex normalizes. [55:53] >> That's exactly right. Yeah. Yeah. [55:54] >> Which is a very re reasonable thing to [55:57] be worried about. [55:57] >> Can I ask something? I I keep hearing [55:59] about the circular investing and the [56:01] >> lack of free cash flow and everything. [56:03] Let's just say Amazon and Google and [56:04] Microsoft and all the big spenders stop [56:06] spending. Doesn't that just shoot free [56:08] cash flow right back up for them? But [56:11] that's not the worry. The worry is I [56:14] start a Neocloud. I say I am building a [56:17] data center. I have money from Saudi [56:19] Arabia and maybe the Norwegians and [56:22] everybody uh private equity Apollo's in [56:25] blah. So, I'm gonna build this data [56:26] center and I'm going to start my own [56:28] NeoCloud. [56:29] Jensen Wang calls and says, "I heard the [56:33] news. I think it's great. We would like [56:35] to sell you GPUs." Y [56:37] >> and by the way, we will financially [56:39] backs stop those purchases. You don't [56:40] have the capital yet. We know you're [56:42] good for it because we see that you have [56:45] all this backing and therefore Nvidia is [56:48] going to book that chip sale to me and [56:51] I'm either using money that indirectly [56:54] comes from them or I'm backstopping that [56:56] to raise money from someone else. [56:58] Take that example times a thousand and [57:02] everybody's lending andor equity [57:04] investing in everyone else's projects [57:06] and the concern is when the music stops [57:09] all these people go for the chairs and a [57:11] lot of people going to be left without a [57:13] chair because some of those funding [57:14] commitments are going to vanish as [57:16] though they were a vapor. Am I [57:18] explaining that right? [57:18] >> No, I think that's exactly right. But I [57:20] mean [57:21] >> not saying that will happen. I'm saying [57:23] this is the thing that will make this [57:25] actually an earnings bubble, right? [57:26] because these earnings will go away, [57:28] >> right? And people confuse the economy [57:30] and the market a lot, right? So the [57:33] economy can be doing one thing, the [57:35] market can be doing another. Economy, as [57:38] we were just talking about, it's doing [57:39] very, very well. But, you know, a stock [57:41] price and the valuation is the [57:43] discounted value of its future earnings. [57:46] So, if you kind of look at this chart, [57:48] there was an expectation that AI was [57:50] really going to go. uh it got some [57:52] traction, multiples got super high and [57:55] now I think there's a view that as more [57:57] competitors come in and more [57:59] capabilities are built out. I mean 18 [58:01] right you're 18 is below the S&P [58:04] multiple right now [58:05] >> 18 18 times for Nvidia. [58:07] >> Yeah. [58:07] >> Yeah. Pe people are acting as though [58:09] it's been disrupted already [58:10] >> right. Yeah. But it's just it's just the [58:13] going forward expectation. But I keep [58:15] coming back to what I said earlier. If [58:17] the adopters realize the expected [58:20] benefit productivity because [58:22] productivity is what drives margin, [58:24] profits, GDP, the economy, everything. [58:27] if they realize those productivity [58:29] benefits that I think are out there, uh, [58:32] this this will tick back up because [58:33] people realize [58:34] >> So, I love that you said that and I said [58:36] I said something very similar earlier [58:38] this year in response to what happens [58:42] when um, capex plans start to moderate [58:46] and all this earnings growth. What's the [58:48] h is there a handoff where we don't have [58:50] to automatically just have a bare market [58:52] like we don't just automatically have to [58:55] have a 2022 another year of efficiency [58:58] and I think that's the I don't know if [59:00] it's going to work that is the handoff [59:02] where the S&P 493 start to out earn five [59:06] Daniel [59:06] >> because of all these investments they're [59:08] making in AI start to result in higher [59:12] earnings and more productivity like that [59:14] is the way the market gets out of this [59:17] hyper concentration amongst seven giant [59:20] stocks. What are we looking at, Sean? [59:22] >> So, this is as of yesterday. We're [59:23] looking at the S&P 500 in points on the [59:26] far left and then the contribution to [59:28] the points change year to date. The Mag [59:31] 7's in gray and the other 493 is in I I [59:34] guess that's black or dark blue. So, the [59:36] 493 is absolutely trouncing the Mag 7 so [59:39] far this year. [59:40] >> Yeah. [59:40] >> Yeah. Well, this goes back to the [59:42] broadening out for the first time in I [59:44] don't know how long 50 some odd percent [59:46] of the S&P is up over 10%. Right? It [59:49] used to be a huge disparity, right? We [59:52] the S&P was doing great because of very [59:55] concentrated [59:58] in technology and that broadening out is [60:01] now happening and you see it across [60:03] small cap, you see it across emerging [60:05] market. It's really it's it's live and [60:07] it's real. Um do you worry about bubbles [60:11] uh in pockets of the market like [60:13] semiconductors, memory stocks? Uh are [60:16] there are there areas where [60:19] um you guys maybe think maybe look at [60:23] portfolios top down? Maybe we ought to [60:25] do something about concentration here or [60:28] is that not really an issue for you [60:29] based on the way that you manage money [60:31] and how the strategies work? So, you [60:33] brought up Jensen Wang earlier and have [60:36] you guys heard his thing about the the [60:38] AI cake [60:39] >> maybe. [60:40] >> Okay. He talks about the AI is a cake [60:42] and he says it has five layers to [60:44] >> What a what a salesman. [60:46] >> Oh, he's fantastic [60:47] >> cuz I'll buy cake. [60:48] >> Yeah, [laughter] me too. Talk to me [60:50] about cake and I'm all in. Yeah. Um he [60:52] talks about the cake and you know [60:54] because we use the word AI but there are [60:56] really five distinctive levels to it. [60:58] There's the base level which is really [61:01] the um the ground, the cooling, the [61:05] electricity. You've got the chip level, [61:09] right? The Nvidia of the world. You got [61:11] the infrastructure level uh which are [61:15] the data centers themselves. [61:17] uh you have the model level which are [61:20] the LLMs and then sitting on top of all [61:23] of that is the app level where the [61:27] actual values created from an investing [61:30] point of view you know down on the [61:32] bottom of the cake those first two [61:35] levels the base level and the [61:37] infrastructure level require or base and [61:39] chip require massive investment lot tons [61:42] of capital as you go up that cake it [61:45] requires less and less capital. But when [61:47] we talk about AI investing, you got to [61:50] figure out which level of the cake [61:52] you're in. Okay? Because it's not just [61:55] the word is used so broadly and there's [61:57] so much underneath it. What level of the [61:59] cake are you in? And is that position [62:02] that they currently hold sustainable, [62:04] expandable, and defensible? And I think [62:08] >> on a stockby stock basis, [62:09] >> on a stockby stock basis, [62:11] >> very hard to do. [62:12] >> It is. But but we use the words AI so [62:14] broadly and it's there's just so much [62:16] more to it than that. [62:17] >> It's nuts to me how many sectors it [62:19] affects. Industrials, utilities, energy, [62:22] like almost every single sector maybe [62:24] except for financials and healthcare. [62:26] >> I mean, we wrote about Caterpillar and [62:28] that's been such an AI story. I mean, [62:31] who would ever think that? So, I like [62:32] this idea that where the puck is going [62:35] is that healthc care and financials [62:37] arguably have companies that could be [62:41] among the biggest beneficiaries of AI as [62:44] users, as adopters. Like what? Think [62:47] about insurance underwriting. Think [62:49] about um drug discovery. [62:52] >> Like if if AI lives up to the the [62:56] promise, I was going to say hype, but I [62:58] don't view it as hype. Yeah, it's not [62:59] >> Listen up to the promise. You could have [63:03] 500 companies in finan in in in the [63:06] financial sector and the healthcare [63:07] sector say something on an earnings call [63:10] like we credit the beat to these [63:13] investments we made a year ago in in [63:15] updating our our uh workflows and and [63:19] processes to the AI era. And I think [63:22] that's a really great way for the story [63:25] to go. [63:25] >> Yeah. going to that last level of the [63:27] cake, the apps and stuff, that is where [63:29] the drug discovery comes from, the fan [63:31] financial and services and [63:32] >> so we there yet? [63:34] >> Oh my gosh. So, you know, over at the [63:36] Star Wars Institute, uh they're using a [63:39] tremendous amount of AI and really [63:41] advancing. [63:42] >> You're paying for it. So, [63:43] >> yeah, that's true. That's correct. [63:44] Really advancing medical research. And, [63:47] you know, you see it in financial [63:49] services. Our portfolio managers are [63:51] using it to do research. I I don't think [63:54] it's going to come anytime soon where [63:56] you're going to remove completely human [63:58] judgment from the process. I still think [64:00] human judgment uh prevails at the end of [64:03] the day. But all the things that feed [64:05] into that ultimate decision are going to [64:08] be fed by AI. And I agree with you. I [64:11] don't think it's hype. I think it's [64:12] promise. The other thing that's not uh [64:15] every you know that Centrini report I [64:17] mentioned earlier, if you read that, [64:19] it's fascinating. It came out right [64:21] before the Iran war started and it got [64:23] like 11 million views over a weekend. It [64:25] and the markets started going down [64:27] because everybody freaked out over it. [64:29] The thing that wasn't in there that's uh [64:31] really interesting is you say, "Okay, [64:33] how are what's going to happen to the [64:34] labor market?" And in a completely [64:38] unplanned but realistic way, we may be [64:41] at peak population right now. And if you [64:45] >> anyway anyway, rightardless, right? And [64:47] if we're at peak, everybody's around the [64:50] world for the most part is having fewer [64:52] children. So it it almost feel of course [64:55] it's not a master plan. Feels like a [64:57] master plan, but if the if population if [65:01] we're at peak population and it [65:02] continues to go down and productivity [65:04] goes up, you're threading a needle, but [65:06] it could create the perfect outcome. [65:08] >> It may have arrived right on time. When [65:11] you look at the demography, the Koreans [65:13] are are are not having children. they [65:15] have negative population growth. The [65:17] Chinese are not far behind. [65:19] >> Japan the same. [65:20] >> Yeah. [65:20] >> Europe is after that. Um and and of [65:24] course we will not be impervious to it. [65:26] We've got immigrant populations that [65:28] have come in over the last 50 years that [65:30] have kept our population growth above [65:33] the average of the developed world, but [65:35] that's not forever. We're going to run [65:36] out of people that that are going to [65:38] come here. Um so I I agree with you. And [65:40] then I think about you got uh 68 million [65:43] boomers still alive. Somebody's got to [65:46] take care of somebody's got to take care [65:48] of them physically nurses. Like we're [65:51] going to need all of the robotics and [65:52] the AI we can get. So I'm not negative [65:55] on it. Um we might have a little air [65:57] pocket in the next 5 years for white [65:59] collar employment, but that's that's a [66:01] whole other subject. [66:02] >> Josh, I don't like that you said there's [66:04] 68 million of us cuz I'm one of them [66:06] still alive. Make it you make it sound [66:08] like I'm [66:09] >> I'm an ex I'm [laughter] an ex NEO. So I [66:12] will definitely have a robot nurse take [66:14] care of me. All right. I want to talk [66:15] about Sters. So this is I think this is [66:17] one of the coolest stories in our [66:19] industry. Jim Sters Jr. [66:21] >> founded American Century Investments as [66:24] you mentioned in 1958 [66:26] >> in Kansas City. So very non-traditional [66:29] way to start an asset management firm in [66:31] a place. Okay. Um, he had $100,000 in [66:36] capital, 24 investors, and two mutual [66:39] funds. [66:40] >> All right. He was a mutual fund [66:42] salesperson himself for Wadell and Reed. [66:45] >> He was Well, you've done your research. [66:47] >> I have. Um, [66:49] >> it's Claude. Don't get too excited. No, [66:52] but I wanted to better understand the [66:53] story. And then in the '9s, [66:57] um, the the Stour family has some cancer [67:01] stuff happening and it sort of like it [67:05] sort of like becomes the you said [67:07] purpose- driven. [67:08] >> Yes. [67:08] >> Sort of becomes this animating thing of [67:10] like, well, what can we really do about [67:12] this? So, bring us up to speed on the [67:15] story and then we'll talk about the [67:16] institute itself. [67:17] >> Okay. So, everything you said is exactly [67:20] right. So, I'll just pick up. So they [67:22] got he and his wife both ended up with [67:24] cancer in the late 90s. They went to [67:26] treatment. They could not believe how [67:28] barbaric it still was and how it had not [67:31] yet evolved since the 50s or 60s. [67:33] >> Hardcore chemo and yeah it's it's tough [67:37] radiation and everything else. [67:38] >> And uh they decided they wanted to do [67:41] something to help people that was bigger [67:44] than money. And you know most people [67:46] just donate their money. So they did a [67:48] couple things that were fascinating. [67:49] one, they gave away almost all of their [67:51] net worth while they were alive. That's [67:53] a bold thing to do. And not only did [67:56] they give it away, they did it to create [67:58] the Sters Institute for Medical [67:59] Research. And I agree, America. Uh [68:02] Kansas City is an odd place for an asset [68:04] manager. [68:04] >> Well, not these days, but back then. [68:06] >> Well, yeah. I mean, the the wealth and [68:08] RA, right? We now have creative [68:09] >> biggest RAAS in the country are all in [68:11] Kansas, and I'm still trying to get [68:12] We're gonna get to the bottom of that. [68:14] >> Okay. Creative and mariner and all. [68:16] >> They're all there. [68:16] >> Yeah. It's crazy what's how that's [68:18] turned into. But at any rate, um he [68:20] decided to give it all away and he uh [68:22] took an old hospital in Kansas City that [68:25] largely been abandoned, rebuilt it to be [68:27] the institute, gave his donation to it, [68:30] and then I call it the gift that keeps [68:32] on giving. And then as a result, we just [68:34] keep directing our dividends there, over [68:37] 40% of them each year. It's about 2.2 or [68:40] 2.3 billion over the last [68:42] >> That is incredible. [68:43] >> It's crazy. And it's um [68:45] >> And you sit on the you personally sit on [68:47] the board of both entities. [68:49] >> I'm the chair of both companies. [68:50] Correct. [68:51] >> Okay. Yeah. Got it. Do you ever as an as [68:54] an executive in the asset management [68:56] industry say, "Man, we could really [68:58] reinvest those dividends into this [69:00] business um if if if we could or do you [69:03] not think about it that way?" [69:05] >> I don't I actually believe, you know, [69:08] we're in, as you point out, we're in [69:09] Kansas City. It is a differentiating uh [69:12] objective for us. When I I don't go to a [69:14] whole bunch of finals, I go to the big [69:16] ones. But when I'm in a big final and [69:19] you let's say you guys are firemen or [69:21] cops or doctors or lawyers, whoever the [69:23] investment committee is, and they've had [69:25] a presentation for [69:26] >> What's a final? Oh, like an [69:28] institutional final, right? Yeah. [69:30] Institutional pitch. And uh we're up [69:33] against two other big competitors. [69:35] >> Are you the closer? They fly you in for [69:36] those [69:37] >> big ones. Okay. The last thing I always [69:38] say is, by the way, if you choose us, [69:41] know that 40% of the dividends that we [69:44] generate will go to fund medical [69:45] research to create a better world for [69:47] you, your kids, and and you know, [69:49] American Centuries kind of sits at the [69:51] intersection of health and wealth, the [69:53] place where everybody needs help. [69:54] >> How do they say who says that? [69:56] >> I know how they [laughter] say you [69:57] nailed that. [69:59] >> It's it it's really compelling. So, I [70:01] don't think people do it. Um, very few [70:03] people invest with us just because of [70:05] that. But when you're talking to [70:08] somebody and they can't decide, you [70:10] know, if we've gotten to the finals or [70:11] if we're in in in your company and we're [70:14] one of the last three picks and they're [70:16] choosing between and they know the [70:17] American Century story, it's a [70:19] tiebreaker quite often. [70:20] >> That's cool. Yeah. I love I love that [70:22] that's the case. Um I want to ask you a [70:24] little bit about the science. [70:25] >> Yeah. [70:26] >> So you guys are funding $2 billionish. [70:30] Yes. Uh which is a lot of money. And [70:33] what I love about what I love about the [70:36] Sters's idea of research, similar to the [70:40] way that you talked about not being a [70:42] public company, not having a gun to your [70:44] head about earnings, uh, you know, do we [70:47] beat the street by a penny or not each [70:48] quarter. They're not chasing a drug that [70:51] they could commercialize, you know, in [70:53] in 15 months. They're doing these sorts [70:56] of long-term research that the pharma [70:59] guys probably aren't doing because it's [71:02] such a long tale before anything comes [71:04] out of it. It's still necessary. And a [71:06] lot of the stuff I read about what you [71:07] guys are doing is regenerative uh ideas. [71:11] So tell us a little bit about some of [71:13] your wacky science experiments and and [71:15] what the idea is behind them. [71:17] >> Yeah. So, one of the things, [71:20] um, I think a good way to start this, [71:22] when people think about scientists, they [71:24] typically think about chemicals and [71:26] compounds and types. Labs. Yeah. [71:29] >> Uh, we're taking a very, very different [71:32] approach to it. Um, for the most part, [71:35] we focus on [71:38] organisms that have evolved, [71:40] >> animals, [71:41] >> animals that have evolved over millions [71:44] of years that should have some sort of [71:47] ailment, cancer, diabetes, neurogen, [71:51] degenerative diseases, [71:52] >> baldness. [71:53] >> Oh, yeah. We have 20 different labs [71:54] focused on 20 different things. And, uh, [71:58] we focus on the animals that have [72:00] avoided that. So, two things. One, we're [72:03] not [72:03] >> He's going to combine the animals with [72:05] people. Yeah. [72:06] >> What in Kansas? [72:07] >> That's kind of where we're getting to. [72:09] Yeah. Um, so one, it's not a bunch of [72:11] chemicals. We're studying nature and how [72:14] evolution has uh uh gotten rid of these [72:17] diseases that they should have. And then [72:19] the other thing that happens in science, [72:21] almost everybody studies what went [72:25] wrong. We study what went right [72:28] >> in evolution. [72:29] >> Correct. Why does this animal not have [72:32] diabetes? It should absolutely have [72:33] diabetes. This animal should absolutely [72:36] have osteoporosis, but it doesn't. And [72:39] so what we're doing is we're looking at [72:41] a very molecular level of what proteins [72:44] or DNA structure do they have that [72:48] differentiates and is that applicable to [72:50] humans? And we mentioned earlier pharma [72:52] doesn't pursue it. We do what's called [72:54] foundational research. In a way, it's a [72:56] little like Avantis. I look at Avantis [72:58] as building blocks for people's [73:00] portfolios and then they can have their [73:02] satellite holdings but the core of the [73:04] portfolio should be Avantis. Same thing [73:07] here we're doing foundational research [73:09] that we make available to the world for [73:12] free so that everybody else can build [73:14] upon it. And then the other thing that [73:16] we do that's very unique most of [73:20] everybody who does makes a discovery [73:22] loves to tell the world about it and [73:23] publish a paper but we also talk about [73:26] our failures. Well if we have a [73:28] hypothesis that doesn't pan out. We [73:31] actually publish that as well. Why do we [73:33] do that is even though we're competing [73:35] with all these other organizations for [73:38] new scientific knowledge, we don't want [73:40] people, we don't want the world to waste [73:43] resources replicating a hypothesis that [73:47] we've tested and learn that it did not [73:50] work. So we publish both our successes [73:53] for people to build upon [73:55] >> and our failures. Don't do this. We did [73:56] it already. It doesn't work. Here's our [73:58] method. Here's how we know it doesn't [73:59] work. [73:59] >> Yeah. [74:00] >> That's really cool. That's it's so it's [74:02] altruism within altruism. It's like [74:05] altruism squared. [74:06] >> Yes. [laughter] [74:07] >> Here are some of the things that have [74:08] come out of your uh your organization's [74:11] research and labs. Uh plenarian [74:14] flatworms. [74:16] We you guys precisely identified a [74:18] subset of stem cells that can regenerate [74:21] an entire organism from a single cell. I [74:24] don't know how that's applicable to me. [74:26] Do I eat the flatworm or tell tell us [74:28] what the importance of that research? [74:29] Sounds like a big deal was made out of [74:31] it when you did it. [74:32] >> Yeah. So, um there's all sorts of [74:35] organisms in the world that if you cut [74:39] them in half, cut off their arm, cut off [74:41] their head head, arms, legs, they [74:43] completely regenerate. Yeah. [74:44] >> Uh they grow a new one. Uh organs as [74:47] well. Humans can't do that. But [74:50] understanding how these organisms can [74:53] lose an organ, lose a limb, you can [74:56] reduce something down to just like you [74:58] cut a lizard's tail off and it grows a [75:00] new tail. [75:00] >> Yeah. And there's all sorts of them that [75:02] do that. So we we're looking at it for [75:04] the sake of organ regeneration. Uh for [75:07] the sake of helping people regenerate [75:10] with all these organisms or animals [75:13] throughout the world can do it. Why [75:15] can't humans? And we have made tons of [75:17] discovery. There's a guy that we have [75:19] called Alejandro Alvarado Sanchez who or [75:22] Sanchez Alvarado who is the lead [75:25] scientist there and he is [75:27] internationally recognized is the lead [75:30] uh thought leader in the space of [75:32] regeneration. He's over at the [75:33] institute. [75:34] >> I'm I would imagine there are commercial [75:36] companies coming to you guys and saying [75:39] we want to try to do something like we [75:42] want to try to do something with some of [75:43] your research. Is it for sale? Is it for [75:46] collaboration? And how do you think [75:47] about that? [75:48] >> Um, again, it's a 501c3 and so what we [75:51] really trying to do is we're really just [75:53] trying to make the world a better place, [75:54] create uh scientific knowledge that [75:56] others can build upon. But we have also [75:59] sold some stuff. Um, a recent example is [76:03] one of our guys figured out how uh at [76:07] the time osteoporosis, the decaying of [76:09] of bones. Uh, there was no way to stop [76:12] it and the best uh drugs out there only [76:15] slowed it. I believe we learned this [76:17] from fish. We found this fish. I think [76:19] it was an African killerish or something [76:22] that learned how to regenerate. [76:24] >> Is it gapilta fish? No, [76:26] >> no, no. Killer fish. Killer fish. Yeah. [76:28] No, different. So I cuz I eat those once [76:30] a year. [laughter] [76:31] >> No. [76:32] Um and we discovered how to do that and [76:35] we ended up selling it to Amgen and [76:38] Amgen now uses it and so it they have a [76:42] drug that not only slows but can reverse [76:46] osteoporosis. [76:47] >> Oh, that is so cool. [76:47] >> Yes. Um the last one I I'll mention, I [76:50] read about this. You had a study in [76:52] conjunction with the University of [76:53] Georgia where you guys uncovered more [76:56] than 300 potential drug development [76:59] targets for a lethal fungus. What was [77:02] that about? Do you remember offh hand? [77:04] >> I don't remember that one. So I don't [77:06] know where you found that one. But uh we [77:08] do have um from a collaboration point of [77:10] view, we have hundreds of collaborations [77:13] going on with all the biggest [77:15] organizations. MSK, Memorial Slam [77:17] Ketting, MD Anderson, uh all the major [77:19] hospitals. I think that's one of the [77:21] coolest things I've ever heard. I I love [77:22] it. I love I love the whole mechanism of [77:25] funding it with the asset management [77:27] firm and then the fact that you're [77:29] sitting a stride both organizations is [77:31] really cool. It shows a real commitment. [77:33] It's it's it's reminiscent to me of like [77:35] uh um the Hershey family and and how [77:39] they took care of their community and I [77:41] think it's great. Last thing uh we're [77:43] going to ask you before we let you [77:44] escape um and I can't let you escape [77:46] before I get the answer to this. You [77:48] were at the Taylor Swift Travis Kelce [77:51] wedding. [77:51] >> That's true. [77:52] >> Did you officiate the wedding? What are [77:54] you doing there? [77:55] >> Well, that's I wondered that as well [77:57] when we got the Actually, it's a funny [77:58] story. If you have a few minutes, [78:00] >> I got I got all the time in the world [78:01] for this. [78:02] >> Okay. So, I don't know. It's February or [78:05] March. I got this text that said, "This [78:08] is from Taylor and Travis. I promise [78:11] it's not spam." [78:11] >> No way. [78:12] >> And I deleted it. [78:14] >> Well, that's that's what I would have [78:15] done. [78:15] >> Yeah. 100%. Yeah. Uh, now I know Travis [78:18] uh fairly well. Um, and you know, a [78:21] couple days later it comes in again, you [78:23] know, from Taylor and Travis. I promise [78:25] this isn't spam. And it just kept coming [78:27] in and eventually I blocked the number. [78:30] Um, [78:31] >> how many other people did that? [78:33] >> Well, that's that's where the next part [78:34] of the story. About a few weeks, maybe a [78:38] month at most before the wedding. So, if [78:40] the original one came out in February, [78:41] this was in June, my phone rings. It's [78:44] Travis. He goes, "Hey JT, um, you're not [78:48] you're like one of the only people that [78:49] hasn't responded to the wedding [78:52] invitation. What's going on?" [78:54] >> Which was a text message. [78:56] >> Yeah. Right. Yeah. Which you I would [78:57] have never imagined. And uh and I said, [78:59] "Well, Travis, I didn't get an [79:01] invitation." He goes, "Jonathan, we send [79:03] you text messages like every two or [79:05] three days and you're not responding." [79:07] And I said, "Oh my god, I deleted it." [79:10] Uh, and not only did I delete it, I [79:11] blocked it. And uh he said, "Well, um [79:15] you know, go ahead [clears throat] and [79:16] fix it. You're invited." And I said, [79:17] "Well, Travis, why would you send a text [79:20] message for a wedding and not a uh not [79:23] an invitation?" He said, "Look, [79:25] everybody in this uh party is like you. [79:30] They're never in one place. They're in a [79:32] bunch of different places. And the work [79:34] it would take to figure out where you're [79:37] when you're going to be where is way too [79:38] much. We had everybody's cell phone [79:40] numbers. We have very few people. [79:42] >> Also, the invitation with the address [79:45] and the time that goes right on the [79:47] internet if you print it out. [79:48] >> Well, I'll get to that in a second, too. [79:51] All right. [79:51] >> So, anyways, he calls me up. He tells me [79:53] why haven't I responded. [79:54] >> Wait, I just want to point out my Gen Z [79:56] walked in for this story. [79:57] >> Okay. [laughter] [79:58] >> You just made you made it just I don't [80:00] know how you did it miraculously. [80:02] >> You got a slap. All right, continue. [80:04] >> So, um so then I I said, "Okay." And [80:07] then I said, "What number is it from?" [80:09] and he tells me the area code. He [80:11] couldn't remember the rest of it. So, [80:12] I'd never looked at my blocked numbers [80:14] before in my life. So, I took me a half [80:16] an hour to figure out to do it. I had, [80:18] you know, like you guys, I've blocked [80:21] thousand, probably tens of thousands of [80:23] numbers and I had hundreds from that [80:24] code. So, I call him back. I said, [80:26] "Travis, I I I have no idea which one [80:29] it's from." And he said, "Give me your [80:31] wife's number." So, uh I told I gave him [80:35] Cindy, my wife's number, Cindy. and then [80:37] she's been getting all the updates. And [80:39] when you first get the wedding [80:40] invitation, [80:42] which was a text, um the first thing you [80:45] do is there's multiffactor [80:47] authentication, right? [80:49] >> So you go through that process a couple [80:50] times. [80:51] >> Then you got a non-disclosure agreement. [80:55] >> Oh wow. [80:55] >> Uh sent to you kind of via docuign. We [80:58] both had to sign that. After that, you [81:02] then actually got the invitation itself, [81:04] digital invitation watermarked. So, it [81:08] says in [81:08] >> you can't forward it to somebody. [81:09] >> It says Jonathan and Cindy Thomas in the [81:12] background. So, if you took a shot, [81:14] screenshotted it, shared, everybody [81:16] would know who it was. [81:17] >> I won't get into the details of the NDA, [81:20] but it was it had teeth. Let's just put [81:22] it that way. [81:23] >> Um, and then throughout the process, so [81:26] the first one just came out, you invited [81:27] to the wedding. Then it came out uh July [81:30] 3rd uh in New York. Then it came out [81:33] July 3rd Manhattan. And it wasn't until [81:37] 4 in the morning on the day of the [81:40] wedding where we got the exact location [81:41] >> that it's that it's Madison Square [81:43] Garden. Yes. [81:43] >> Okay. So I don't want you to break your [81:45] NDA. Can you just tell me did you have [81:46] fun? [81:47] >> It was amazing. I Cindy have fun. [81:49] >> Everybody had fun. I will tell you this. [81:51] Um [81:52] >> uh [81:54] >> careful [81:54] >> Taylor. Yeah, I am being careful. Taylor [81:56] and Travis. First of all, Adam Sandler [81:59] uh officiated it. He came came down, [82:02] everybody laughed and thought it was a [82:04] joke at first, but he actually did. He [82:06] probably spoke for 20 or 30 minutes. Um [82:09] vascillated between funny, very sincere, [82:14] um sang a few things. Um but you know, [82:18] >> Adam Sandler saying, [82:19] >> yes, sang during his officiating [82:21] process. Um [82:22] >> as one does. [82:23] >> Yeah. Yeah. But uh you know if there was [82:26] a key theme to his thing uh there are [82:28] two things I remember real distinctly. [82:29] One is you know in your typical vows the [82:32] officiator says for rich or for poor. [82:34] Adam said you know you're not going to [82:36] have to worry about that. [82:38] >> Um and then the second thing he his key [82:40] message was kiss each other [82:42] >> uh every day in the morning at night [82:45] after dinner just just kiss often. And [82:48] then uh Travis went first with his vows. [82:51] He probably spoke for 30 minutes and I [82:54] don't want to violate his privacy but [82:57] I was crying which I was trying to hold [83:00] back [83:00] >> but you know him in real life. [83:02] >> Yeah. So I mean he made himself [83:04] unbelievably vulnerable. I was sitting [83:06] there crying and I was trying to hold it [83:08] back until I look around and there's all [83:10] these 300B [83:13] um men from the football uh business [83:16] crying as well. And so I felt really [83:18] comfortable just kind of let go on it. I [83:21] mean it was it was very very powerful. [83:24] >> And then Taylor went and she also wrote [83:27] her own vows. She probably spoke for 30 [83:29] minutes. Um [83:31] >> that's the least surprising part of [83:32] this. [83:32] >> Yeah. Yeah. And it was poetic. [83:34] >> She's a writer. [83:35] >> It was really well done. And then the [83:38] last thing I'll tell you about the [83:39] wedding or two things that were really [83:40] incredible. One was, you know, the vows [83:44] and the ceremony were very solemn, very [83:46] sincere, very emotional. Then they [83:48] opened up, you kind of walk through this [83:50] massive castle that they built. And by [83:52] the way, you would never guess you're in [83:53] Madison Square Garden the way they did. [83:55] It was incredible. But you walk through [83:57] this castle that they built and behind [83:59] it, um, they had all sorts of games, uh, [84:03] amazing giveaways to people. Um, and [84:07] then the stage, uh, initially, uh, [84:10] Taylor and Paul McCartney sang and then [84:13] Taylor and Stevie Nicks sang. [84:15] >> Since this is insane, [84:16] >> and then for the rest of the night, [84:18] everybody, the whole entertainment [84:20] industry is I kept saying if something [84:21] happens to this building, the [84:22] entertainment in the industry in the US [84:24] is gone. They just popped up in on stage [84:26] and sang songs. Um, so at one point we [84:30] were I was dancing with my wife and [84:32] without any exaggeration I had Paul [84:34] McCartney to my left, Brad Pitt in front [84:37] of me, Cindy Crawford on this side and I [84:40] can't remember who is behind me Brad [84:42] Pitt. I mean we're just surrounded by [84:45] legends and it was [84:47] >> How do you ever go to a normal wedding [84:48] after that? [84:49] >> It's going to be a letown. That's for [84:50] sure. [84:51] >> Why isn't Paul McCartney here? [84:53] >> Yeah. Yeah. But it was they really [84:55] calibrated the second part of it to the [84:57] to their guests. I've never seen a [84:59] wedding that was so designed to delight [85:03] the guest and make sure they have a lot [85:05] of fun. Usually there's always this [85:06] ongoing theme about the bride [85:10] and groom. [85:11] For them, the the the ceremony was very [85:14] much about them. Once you went through [85:16] that castle, it was all about the guests [85:18] and they went over the top to make sure [85:19] everybody had a great time. Whole story. [85:21] That's really cool. [85:23] >> [applause] [85:23] >> Well, listen. Uh, I got to tell you, I [85:27] absolutely love the story of American [85:29] Century. Had so much fun learning from [85:31] you today. Thank you so much for joining [85:32] us. Uh, Sean, great job. Thank you for [85:35] sitting in for Michael. And, uh, I want [85:38] to tell people where they could learn [85:40] more about Vantis and and American [85:43] Century. Where would you where would you [85:44] tell people to go? [85:45] >> Well, just americanentry.com. You from [85:48] there you can get to information about [85:50] income, which is a retirement product. [85:52] We have you can get to Avantis Investors [85:54] and you can get to American Century [85:56] product. Um I also post [music] quite a [85:59] bit on LinkedIn about some of our major [86:01] achievements and developments. You can [86:02] see it there. And then the Star Wars [86:04] Institute uh.org um also has a lot of [86:07] information about the research that's [86:09] been going on there. [86:10] >> Jonathan Thomas, thank you so much for [86:11] joining us. We appreciate it. [86:13] >> Guys, thank you for watching. Thank you [86:15] for listening. Check out American [86:17] Century, of course. We'll see you soon.