Apple Prepares Hardware Blitz Under Ternus to Counter AI Misses

苹果拟在特纳斯掌舵下发起硬件攻势以应对AI劣势 即将上任的首席执行官 John Ternus 计划开启苹果史上规模最大的产品周期——包括折叠屏设备、配备摄像头的 AirPods 以及机器人智能显示屏——以在生成式 AI 领域落后于竞争对手后重夺技术势头。 在本期节目中，主持人 Joe Weisenthal 和 Tracy Alloway 与彭博社的 Mark Gurman 探讨了 John Ternus 接任首席执行官之际苹果即将迎来的企业转型。对话探讨了苹果的硬件路线图，包括为散热而回归采用铝金属材质、针对中国市场的售价2500美元的折叠屏“iPhone Ultra”，以及配备摄像头的 AirPods。Gurman 详细说明了苹果早期在 AI 上的失策如何促成了与 Google Gemini 数十亿美元的合作来赋能全新 Siri AI，同时由中国本土模型负责处理搜索与合规问题。此外，他们还讨论了因内存组件短缺引发的罕见提价、苹果与 OpenAI 围绕商业间谍展开的高风险法律战，以及在激烈的全球竞争中仍让苹果在财务上保持主导地位的生态系统护城河。 硬件工程高级副总裁 John Ternus 将接替 Tim Cook 出任苹果 CEO，标志着公司重回硬件创新驱动，并计划在未来三年内开启史上规模最大的产品更新周期。 (10:00) 受全球内存芯片短缺与成本飙升影响，苹果打破长期以来的降价与维价规律，首次对多条产品线实施涨价，并正在评估引入长鑫存储与长江存储等中国供应商以分摊风险。 (34:10) 面对中国智能手机厂商在形态创新上的竞争压力，苹果计划推出售价约 2500 美元的高端折叠屏手机 iPhone Ultra，并加速推进带摄像头的 AirPods 与智能眼镜等 AI 硬件产品。 (20:00) 在自研模型团队遭遇严重人才流失后，苹果斥资数十亿美元与 Google 达成合作，采用 Google Gemini 技术底层全面重构新版 Siri AI。 (27:30) 苹果与 OpenAI 爆发激烈法律诉讼，指控前硬件设计副总裁 Tang Tan 及离职工程师涉嫌违规挖角数百名核心硬件员工并窃取未发布产品的机密原型资料。 (40:00)

Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reports that Apple is entering a defining transitional phase marked by an executive leadership change to hardware chief John Ternus, rising component costs, and aggressive product pipeline expansions to address fierce Chinese competition and gaps in generative AI. Leadership Transition and Hardware Design Evolution (10:00) Apple is preparing for a leadership succession as Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering John Ternus is set to take over the CEO position from Tim Cook. According to Mark Gurman, Ternus's appointment at age 50–51 provides a multi-decade executive runway and reflects the board's desire to re-emphasize product innovation and design excitement after years of incremental updates. Gurman notes Apple has quietly spent the past four to five years developing an ambitious lineup, positioning Ternus to lead the largest product cycle in the company's corporate history. Hardware design has already begun shifting to address engineering performance and consumer preferences. In the iPhone 17 Pro line, Apple replaced the iPhone 15 Pro's aerospace-grade titanium frame with an aluminum enclosure because aluminum dissipates thermal energy roughly ten times better than titanium. The switch resolved thermal throttling problems and allowed rich color anodizing, yielding flagship finishes like 'Cosmic Orange' that saw heavy commercial demand in China. Chinese Market Competition and Regional Adaptations While Apple retains a dominant overall ecosystem advantage in Western markets, Gurman describes China's consumer technology sector as operating on an entirely different level. Domestic manufacturers like Huawei, Vivo, and Xiaomi outpace Apple in experimental hardware form factors, including foldables, tri-folds, and advanced camera setups. To compete directly in this high-end segment, Apple plans to introduce an ultra-premium foldable phone—tentatively named the iPhone Ultra—priced at roughly $2,500. Navigating China also requires operational and regulatory adjustments. To launch Siri in China after a two-year regulatory delay, Apple replaced Western partners like Google and OpenAI with Baidu for external search integration. Additionally, Apple incorporated an Alibaba-developed model that functions as a real-time censorship engine to monitor exchanges and ensure compliance with Chinese state content restrictions. On the hardware side, Apple is testing memory chips from Chinese manufacturers CXMT and YMTC for region-specific models to expand sourcing beyond Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. AI Restructuring, Google Partnership, and OpenAI Legal Conflict Gurman attributes Apple's delayed entry into generative AI to organizational missteps under Tim Cook, notably the 2018 hiring of AI head John Giannandrea, who was skeptical of generative technology. Although earlier work on the canceled $10 billion Apple Car project yielded the Apple Neural Engine used for on-device processing since 2017, Apple's cloud AI operations suffered severe talent departures to competitors like Meta. To overhaul Siri, Apple contracted with Google, paying billions of dollars to integrate Gemini models while positioning its native system to handle routine tasks and deferring heavy queries to external LLMs. Simultaneously, Apple is engaged in legal litigation against OpenAI. The dispute stems from the departure of former hardware design VP Tang Tan, who partnered with Jony Ive and Sam Altman to build competing AI hardware, eventually drawing an estimated 400 former Apple employees to OpenAI. Apple's complaint cites a 'smoking gun' incident where an engineer allegedly stole internal presentations before joining OpenAI, alongside allegations of improper recruitment using unreleased prototypes. Strategically, Apple aims to eliminate any default exclusivity for ChatGPT in iOS, transitioning Siri into a flexible interface that can plug into interchangeable third-party AI models. Memory Cost Pressures and the Hardware Expansion Roadmap Escalating memory component costs have forced Apple to break its long-standing trend of product price stability. Gurman attributes roughly 95% of recent price increases—such as a $200 hike on the Vision Pro—to global silicon shortages exacerbated by hyperscalers competing for memory chips. Rather than absorbing infrastructure buildout costs directly, Apple maintains its traditional playbook of letting third-party cloud suppliers carry massive capital expenditures for AI compute networks, similar to how it relies on Foxconn for hardware assembly. Apple's roadmap over the next several years focuses on monetizing AI through physical hardware. The rollout plan targets the foldable iPhone Ultra in fall 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, followed by camera-equipped AirPods, smart glasses, and a 20th-anniversary all-glass iPhone in 2027. Beyond 2027, the pipeline includes smart home cameras, tabletop robotic displays that track users, a 20-inch foldable tablet, and dedicated augmented reality glasses projected for the late 2020s or early 2030s. While Apple's stock reached record highs supported by strong ecosystem lock-in, the company faces unresolved questions over consumer demand for higher-priced and niche form factors like robotic arms or body-worn AI cameras amid persistent privacy concerns and memory supply inflation.

彭博社记者马克·古尔曼（Mark Gurman）指出，苹果公司正步入关键转型期：在手机换机周期拉长、生成式AI布局滞后及存储成本攀升的压力下，硬件工程主管约翰·特纳斯（John Ternus）即将接替库克出任CEO，开启史上规模最大的产品更新周期。尽管苹果凭借成熟的生态系统和软硬件整合能力维持高市值，但其仍面临折叠屏创新、AI硬件变现以及与OpenAI人才纠纷的多重考验。 领导层交接与硬件主导路线回归 (10:00) 古尔曼披露，现任CEO蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）的任期已近尾声，现年约50至51岁的硬件工程高级副总裁约翰·特纳斯将在数周内接任CEO。董事会推选特纳斯主要基于两大考量：一是扭转iPhone外观近六年迭代缺乏新意的局面，通过硬件主管执掌公司，向外界释放重振产品创新与吸引力的明确信号；二是相较于60岁以上的其他高管，特纳斯的年龄能够提供长达15至20年的管理期，确保长期治理的稳定性。 古尔曼表示，特纳斯虽在内部曾被视作偏稳健的执行者，但具备推动重大变革的威望。苹果在过去四至五年间秘密规划了史上最密集的产品线，预计未来三年将迎来公司历史上规模最大的硬件发布周期，旨在唤醒长期持有老机型用户的升级需求。 机身材料调整与高端折叠屏突破 (5:00) 在硬件工程上，古尔曼解析了苹果从钛金属重回铝金属的逻辑。iPhone 15 Pro采用的钛金属因散热效率仅为铝金属的约十分之一，导致严重的热节流问题；iPhone 17 Pro系列决定放弃钛金属重返铝金属机身，使散热性能提升约10倍，并借此实现“宇宙橙”（Cosmic Orange）等鲜艳的阳极氧化色彩，成为最新硬件的身份象征。为契合中国市场审美，后续机型还将推出深红和酒红色系。 面对全球竞争，古尔曼指出iPhone在西方市场凭借综合生态体验依然领先，但在中国市场，vivo、小米、华为等厂商在折叠屏、三折屏、智能眼镜及潜望镜头上已实现硬件超越。为扭转局势，苹果计划于9月至10月推出一款售价约2500美元的高端折叠手机（或命名为iPhone Ultra），其展开后相当于iPad mini尺寸，主打中国高端身份消费市场。 生成式AI困局、外部结盟与本土合规 古尔曼认为，苹果在生成式AI领域的落后源于库克的管理失误——2018年任命的AI主管约翰·吉安南德雷亚（John Giannandrea）对该技术持怀疑态度，未能提前调配充足资源。然而，苹果现有的端侧核心算力——神经网络引擎（ANE），却戏剧性地脱胎于耗资超100亿美元、研发12年后于2024年2月终止的“泰坦计划”造车项目。该芯片架构自2017年植入iPhone X后，成为支撑苹果端侧AI运算的基础。 由于内部基础模型团队关键人员流失至Meta（开出高达5000万美元薪酬）等对手，苹果转向与谷歌达成数十亿美元的合作，以Gemini技术重建Siri底层。古尔曼将新Siri比喻为胜任95%日常任务的“iMovie”，而ChatGPT等先进模型则是处理深度研究的“Final Cut Pro”。在因监管延迟两年的中国市场，苹果则接入百度大模型支持搜索，并引入阿里巴巴的模型充当实时合规的“审查引擎”，以动态监控过滤敏感词。 存储成本飙升与轻资本转嫁模式 消费电子长期遵循的价格通缩规律正在被打破。由于超大规模云厂商争夺芯片引发全球内存严重短缺，零部件成本急剧攀升，苹果罕见地打破多年产品价格底线。例如，Vision Pro售价已调高200美元（涨幅约6%）以维持利润率，古尔曼预计约95%的涨价直接归因于内存短缺，且秋季新iPhone亦面临提价压力。 为控制巨额资本支出，苹果延续了外包基础设施成本的运营策略：如同过去将组装代工交由富士康承担，苹果在AI领域通过租用外部云厂商算力，避免直接出资数十亿美元自建英伟达服务器集群。同时，为分摊美光、SK海力士和三星的供应压力，苹果正评估长鑫存储（CXMT）和长江存储（YMTC）等中国厂商芯片，以用于中国本土机型。 人才诉讼纠纷与未来硬件路线图 (40:00) 苹果与OpenAI的关系因前硬件高管唐·谭（Tang Tan）的离职而高度紧张。谭于2023年底离职，并与苹果前首席设计官乔尼·艾夫（Jony Ive）及Sam Altman联手开发抗衡iPhone的AI硬件，OpenAI更已吸纳约400名苹果硬件前员工。苹果随后起诉前工程师刘畅涉嫌窃取内部技术演示资料，并指控谭安排违规展示原型机；但部分业内观点认为指控夸大了硅谷常规的人才猎头行为，事实仍待证据开示。 未来路线图方面，苹果规划于2026年秋推出iPhone Ultra与OLED屏iPad mini；2027年推出带摄像头的AirPods、智能眼镜及全玻璃外壳的20周年纪念款iPhone；2028年及之后推出带机械臂的桌面智能屏与高保真AR眼镜。然而，如同早年Google Glass引发的争议，带摄像头的穿戴设备正面临用户涂黑指示灯等隐私反弹，这将成为苹果推广环境感知硬件的关键文化障碍。 虽然苹果在AI前沿研发和部分硬件形态上落后于竞争对手，且面临高昂硬件成本压力，但其凭借iOS庞大的生态壁垒（如iMessage等社交黏性）使股价创下新高。随着特纳斯开启苹果史上最大的三年产品推新周期，公司能否在不牺牲利润率的前提下克服穿戴隐私障碍，并依托外包轻资产模式抵御OpenAI等新硬件威胁，仍待市场检验。

## Background 本期节目由彭博社（Bloomberg）于 2026 年 7 月 23 日在其播客频道发布。单集简介指出，苹果在长期错失生成式 AI 浪潮后正迎来关键转折点：伴随约翰·特纳斯（John Ternus）接替蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）出任 CEO，公司将密集推出折叠屏手机、带摄像头的 AirPods 等硬件矩阵，并在内存短缺推高成本的背景下打破历史惯例上调多款设备售价，特邀彭博社资深科技编辑马克·古尔曼（Mark Gurman）深度剖析苹果的 AI 策略、诉讼风波与未来产品走向。 ## TL;DR 节目围绕苹果从蒂姆·库克向新帅约翰·特纳斯的权力交接展开，深入探讨了苹果如何应对硬件创新放缓与生成式 AI 战略掉队的双重困局。古尔曼揭示了新版 Siri AI 借助 Google 底层大模型实施“换心手术”并引入百度与阿里实现中国本土合规的内幕，同时剖析了因供应链内存短缺导致的罕见全线提价。对谈还详述了苹果因前高管 Tang Tan 携百人工程团队投奔 OpenAI 而引爆的商业窃密诉讼，并全景展望了未来三年涵盖首款折叠屏 iPhone Ultra、带摄像头的可穿戴设备以及桌面机器人的庞大产品路线图。最后，主持人复盘了苹果在 AI 掉队与硬件面临中国厂商激烈追赶的现实下股价仍创新高的商业悖论，指出其深厚护城河依然系于软硬件供应链集成能力与北美生态的社交黏性。 ## Atmosphere & style 对谈在轻松幽默与犀利洞察之间自如切换，开场以两位主持人互相吐槽自己手机老化、搞不清 iOS 版本的自嘲闲聊切入，迅速消解了科技播客的沉闷感。古尔曼的加入则带来了如同硅谷内部线报般的爆料张力，其对高层用人失误的尖锐批评与对内部产品节奏的细致拆解，让整个对话充满专业与锋芒。行至尾声，主持人借由“绿泡泡社交霸凌”与“工厂即产品”的调侃，将严肃的商业资本逻辑解构成极具现实代入感的现代科技讽刺，收听体验既妙趣横生又发人深省。 ## Bulletin - `10:00` 苹果迎来掌舵更迭，硬件工程高级副总裁约翰·特纳斯（John Ternus）接替蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）出任 CEO，旨在打破硬件创新停滞并确立未来 15 至 20 年的长期领导梯队。 - `34:50` 因关键内存严重短缺及通胀压力，苹果罕见打破消费电子“技术通缩”惯例，上调 Vision Pro 等多款主力设备售价，并计划在面向中国市场的机型中测试采购长鑫存储（CXMT）与长江存储（YMTC）芯片。 - `28:13` 苹果自研大模型（AFM）团队因核心人才大量流失而受阻，新版 Siri 改向 Google 支付数十亿美元采购 Gemini 底层模型重构；在华落地则由百度提供大模型与搜索支持、阿里担当合规“审核引擎”。 - `50:00` 苹果正在展开史上产品节奏最密集的三年硬件反攻，产品线覆盖首款折叠屏 iPhone Ultra、带摄像头的 AirPods、智能眼镜、桌面机械臂机器人以及 20 周年全玻璃机身 iPhone。 ## Key takeaways - `01:00` 大众对 iPhone 的文化追逐正在消退，硬件耐用性的显著提升与杀手级创新放缓导致消费者换机周期拉长，不再紧跟代际更新。 - `04:15` 内存元器件短缺叠加多年通胀压力，迫使苹果罕见打破消费电子产品的“技术通缩”惯例，启动全线硬件提价以守住毛利率底线。 - `06:30` iPhone 17 Pro 弃用钛金属并回归铝合金机身，根本原因在于钛金属导热效率仅有铝的十分之一；重返铝合金使散热与着色难题迎刃而解，“宇宙橙”配色亦在中国市场引发轻奢认同。 - `11:32` 50 岁出头的约翰·特纳斯接替库克出任 CEO，核心考量在于为苹果注入急需的产品工程创新基因，同时保障未来 15 至 20 年治理周期的连续性。 - `20:00` 苹果在西方市场仍凭借软硬件一体化综合体验占优，但在前沿机身形态、屏幕与影像硬指标上已面临三星、Google 及中国主流手机厂商的强烈冲击。 - `20:00` 苹果计划于秋季推出定价约 2500 美元的折叠屏旗舰 iPhone Ultra，瞄准超高端身份象征并回击中国厂商在折叠屏领域的竞争优势。 - `22:06` 库克任内最重大的用人失误在于任命约翰·詹南德里亚（JG）掌管 AI，其理论怀疑论态度导致苹果在整整一代生成式 AI 与 LLM 浪潮中彻底掉队。 - `25:05` 苹果如今在端侧芯片上引以为傲的 Apple Neural Engine（ANE），本质上是耗资逾百亿美元却最终流产的“泰坦计划”自动驾驶造车项目留下的意外遗产。 - `28:13` 苹果自研 AFM 团队因高管和专家被 Meta 等同行巨额高薪挖角而瘫痪，苹果不得不斥巨资采购 Google Gemini 模型底座完成对 Siri 的“换心手术”。 - `30:00` Siri AI 定位宛如轻量级的“iMovie”，依托个人隐私数据（相册、短信、日程）满足 95% 的日常高频需求，而复杂深度生成任务仍依赖 ChatGPT 类“Final Cut Pro”级工具。 - `37:30` 为缓解内存供应链吃紧并控制成本，苹果正对长鑫存储和长江存储进行测试，拟在专供中国市场的硬件 SKU 中引入中国本土制造的存储芯片。 - `38:30` 为满足国内严格监管，国行版 Siri AI 采用定制架构：百度模型替代 Google 与 OpenAI 提供外部生成能力，阿里巴巴大模型则专项充当动态合规“审核引擎”。 - `40:00` 苹果与 OpenAI 爆发诉讼战，根源在于前硬件二号人物 Tang Tan 离职联合 Jony Ive 与 Sam Altman 成立 AI 硬件初创公司，并大规模挖走数百名苹果核心工程骨干。 - `45:00` 随身摄像头、AI 吊坠与智能眼镜等穿戴式设备因大众对隐蔽录像的强烈抗拒而遭遇极高心理门槛，硬件厂商面临严峻的社会文化与隐私信任反弹。 - `50:00` 未来三年苹果硬件发布密集，将陆续推出折叠屏 iPhone、换装 OLED 的 iPad mini、带相机的 AirPods、全玻璃机身的 20 周年 iPhone 以及桌面跟随机器人与 AR 眼镜。 - `53:30` 苹果在 AI 落后局面下市值仍创新高，体现了资本市场对其“产品集成公司”与极致供应链整合哲学的认可，而在北美市场，“绿泡泡”社交排斥效应依旧是其坚不可摧的生态护城河。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `01:00` 当 iPhone 不再是流行文化的绝对焦点 节目在一阵充满共鸣的闲聊中展开。主持人 Joe Weisenthal 问搭档 Tracy Alloway 究竟在用哪一款 iPhone 以及运行什么版本的 iOS，Tracy 坦言自己完全不知道。她猜测自己的手机大概是 iPhone 11，而且已经处于“风烛残年”的状态——在录制节目前的两天里，它只有保持垂直站立且连着充电线时才能充进电，逼得她在办公桌上搭建了一套复杂的“应急土制支架”来给手机续命。当 Joe 建议她去街边随便找一家小维修店，花十分钟换个零件或者清理灰尘时，Tracy 感叹道这台手机可能已经用了近八年，电池确实快彻底寿终正寝了。Joe 同样承认自己完全搞不清手里的 iPhone 到底属于哪一代，只记得大约买了四年。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 消费者对 iPhone 认知与换机心理演变 accDescr: 展示从早年狂热追新到当下实用主义与耐用性提升的变化过程。 subgraph Early["2010 年代初：文化狂潮"] A["明确掌握型号代际<br/>(iPhone 4 / 5)"] --> B["发布会受众极广<br/>堪比世界杯决赛"] B --> C["换机周期短<br/>碎屏极其普遍且仍凑合使用"] end subgraph Today["当今现状：边际效应递减"] D["搞不清机型与系统版本<br/>一用四到八年"] --> E["硬件高度耐用<br/>抗跌落性能大幅跃升"] E --> F["缺乏杀手级诱因<br/>日常升级感知平淡"] end Early -.->|硬件成熟与创新放缓| Today ``` 两位主持人回顾了智能手机的文化变迁：在 2010 年代初（例如 iPhone 4 和 iPhone 5 时代），准确说出自己拿着哪一款 iPhone 曾是大众流行文化不可分割的一部分；那时候每逢苹果秋季发布会，所有人都会像守着看“世界杯比赛”一样全神贯注地盯紧直播。然而，那种全民追逐苹果新机的盛况已经一去不复返。之所以发生这种转变，一方面是新功能缺乏足够刺激消费者频繁升级的吸引力，另一方面则是产品本身已经“太结实好用”了。当年随处可见满屏裂纹却依然在被勉强使用的 iPhone，而如今即便不小心摔落，手机也很难摔坏。Tracy 分享了一件轶事：在杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）牛仔竞技表演的看台上，她的手机曾从大约 15 英尺（约 4.5 米）的高处直坠看台底部，捡起来后居然完好无损。 ### `04:15` 站在科技与宏观十字路口的苹果：AI 落后与罕见涨价 尽管 iPhone 的光环有所褪色，但 Joe 与 Tracy 一致强调，苹果依然是当下最值得深度审视的商业巨头。它正处在多股核心宏观与科技力量的交汇点上： - 它是深入探究中国制造未来的核心窗口； - 它是存储芯片等关键元器件成本上涨并最终转嫁给终端消费者的最直观体现； - 它是数十亿人接入互联网与计算机世界的主要物理入口； - 与此同时，在引爆整个科技行业的生成式 AI 基础设施与大模型浪潮中，苹果却显得步履迟缓，尚未成为真正的核心玩家。 更令人震惊的转折来自苹果最近宣布的价格调整。数十年来，消费电子产品市场几乎一直遵循着“技术通缩”的铁律——在食品、医疗、住房等日常开支不断飞涨的背景下，数码设备凭借规模效应与摩尔定律往往越来越实惠，或者在维持同等售价的前提下性能翻倍。然而，由于近期内存（Memory）严重短缺推高了供应链成本，苹果在前几周打破了长久以来的商业默契，在历史上几乎首次对多款主力产品推行全面提价。这种逆转技术通缩的罕见举动，让重新审视苹果的商业底牌和未来走向变得至关重要。 ### `06:30` 专访 Mark Gurman：从“爱马仕橙”看 iPhone 的材料与色彩博弈 为了拆解这一转折时刻，节目请来了彭博社消费科技总编辑、《Power On》通讯作者 Mark Gurman。他被公认为除苹果现任 CEO Tim Cook 之外最洞悉苹果内部运作的观察家。 节目一开始，两位主持人就注意到了 Mark 手中显眼的橙色 iPhone，Mark 笑着形容这部新机就像“一辆坦克”（a tank）。针对近年来科技爱好者与高频换机人群几乎人手一部橙色机型的现象，Mark 揭开了苹果在机身色彩、材料工程与区域市场心理学之间盘根错节的商业布局： ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: iPhone Pro 系列机身材质与色彩演变路径 accDescr: 展示苹果从钛金属转向铝合金，并引入高辨识度色彩的工程与市场逻辑。 subgraph Mat["机身材料更迭"] M1["iPhone 15 Pro<br/>采用钛金属"] -->|散热性能仅为铝的 1/10| M2["iPhone 17 Pro<br/>回归铝合金架构"] M2 -->|热传导显著改善| M3["发热降低<br/>色彩附着更稳固"] end subgraph Color["色彩与营销逻辑"] C1["早期黑白两色"] --> C2["2013年 5s 引入土豪金<br/>叩开中国市场"] C2 --> C3["基础款色彩丰富<br/>Pro 用户厌倦沉闷素色"] C3 --> C4["17 Pro 推出宇宙橙<br/>对标爱马仕橙/拉动换机识别"] end Mat --> Color ``` - **色彩阶级与市场诉求**：早期 iPhone 仅有黑白双色。2013 年苹果推出 iPhone 5s 时首次引入金色，其核心动机就是为了打入对金色极度推崇的中国市场。此后，入门与数字基础系列（如 iPhone 5c、XR、14、15、16）演进出了黄、绿、蓝、粉、紫等活泼多样的亮色，但售价在 1000 至 1500 美元的高端 Pro 系列却长期局限于黑、白、银、暗金等低沉克制的色系。久而久之，高端用户开始强烈抱怨年年千篇一律，要求苹果为旗舰机型注入更具活力的个性选择。 - **钛金属的散热滑铁卢**：在 2023 年发布的 iPhone 15 Pro 上，苹果大张旗鼓地宣传采用航天级“钛金属”（Titanium）材质，将其包装为太空探索同款材料。然而，直到产品大批量交付后苹果才不得不面对其致命缺陷：钛金属的导热散热性能极差，其导热效率仅有传统铝合金的约十分之一。严重的发热瓶颈使得苹果在 iPhone 17 Pro 系列上果断放弃了钛金属，重新回归经典的铝合金机身。 - **“宇宙橙”的身份象征与中国效应**：重返铝合金不仅解决了核心散热难题，更为着色工艺带来了突破——阳极氧化铝的着色附着力远优于钛金属。苹果趁势在 17 Pro 系列上推出了深蓝、经典银以及主打的“宇宙橙”（Cosmic Orange）。Mark 指出，橙色在所有官方营销物料中均处于 C 位，成为用户对外彰显“我换了最新款”的最简单高调的身份标识。而在中国市场，宇宙橙更引发了抢购热潮，坊间普遍认为这一色调神似奢饰品牌“爱马仕橙”（Hermès orange）。尽管微带色盲的 Mark 调侃自己觉得它和爱马仕橙其实并不怎么像，但市场显然接受了这种微妙的轻奢心理暗示。不仅如此，苹果未来还计划顺应中国“龙”等文化图腾，进一步将主打色从橙色过渡到红色或深酒红色。 ### `10:00` 库克的尾声与新帅约翰·特纳斯（John Ternus）的登场 对话从苹果对机身色彩的把握以及近期在中国引发的流行文化讨论切入。主持人调侃 Reddit 上有帖子宣称“爱马仕橙配色的 iPhone 正在中国引发苹果的全面回归”，并提到最近苹果的一大趣闻：泡泡玛特（Pop Mart）CEO 亲自向蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）赠送了一个世界杯版 Labubu 玩偶。马克·古尔曼（Mark Gurman）对此直言，库克未来大概不会再有太多坐在 Apple Park 接受各路名流拜访并合影留念的机会了，因为接力棒即将交接——距离苹果新 CEO 正式走马上任仅剩几周时间。 古尔曼回顾道，如果两年前半的播客节目邀请他，他当时就能断定接班人必然是约翰·特纳斯（John Ternus）。虽然当时外界几乎无人预见到这一点，但他早在过去几年中就撰写了多篇深度特写，不仅仅是“暗示”，而是明确指向特纳斯将执掌苹果帅印。主持人指出，苹果领导层与公众认知的关系已发生巨变：史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）是家喻户晓的文化图腾，库克在执掌帅印后也逐渐成了流行文化符号；但如果现在走到曼哈顿街头随机采访 100 个人，询问苹果的下一任 CEO 是谁，恐怕连一个人都答不上来。古尔曼打趣道，如果真能问出一个知道的，那大概率是正好在街上撞见了他本人。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 苹果CEO交接背景与特纳斯接班逻辑 accDescr: 展示苹果从库克交接给特纳斯的核心驱动因素与战略考量 subgraph Heritage["领导层交接背景"] A["蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）"] -->|"执掌15年，运营导向时代落幕"| B["苹果面临重大转折点"] end subgraph Catalysts["选择特纳斯的两大关键因素"] C["硬件产品创新匮乏"] -->|"急需打破6年外观停滞，找回性感基因"| E["约翰·特纳斯（John Ternus）"] D["长期主义年龄梯队"] -->|"50~51岁黄金年龄，避开短期过渡陷阱"| E end B --> Catalysts ``` ### `11:32` 为何选特纳斯？重塑硬件基因与二十年的长期接班考量 谈及苹果董事会为何最终选定特纳斯挂帅，古尔曼归纳为两个极其关键却又显而易见的核心因素： * **硬件产品的“性感”与创新缺失**：主持人特雷西（Tracy）在开场时曾坦承自己甚至搞不清手里的 iPhone 究竟是哪一代，完全放弃了数代号。古尔曼指出，这一现象的根源在于新款 iPhone 已经失去了让人眼前一亮的特质；在橙色新机出现之前，iPhone 的外观已经连续六年几乎一模一样。苹果沦为了“自身成功的受害者”，完全丢掉了乔布斯时代与库克初期“每隔一年就能拿出一款令人惊呼‘天哪，这完全不同、太不可思议了’的突破性硬件”的魔力。因此，苹果极度渴望唤醒其硬件与产品设计层面的创新基因。特纳斯此前担任苹果硬件工程高级副总裁，是真正主导产品开发的技术核心，让一位年轻的产品负责人掌舵，远比再安排一位运营、营销或财务背景的 CEO 更符合当下的转型需求。 * **年龄与超长周期的管理考量**：特纳斯接任时年仅 50 至 51 岁，而苹果高管团队中其他具备接班资历的人选年龄基本都在 60 岁甚至 65 岁以上。苹果的战略导向从来不是着眼短期，而是立足未来 15 到 20 年的长期治理。他们竭力避免类似迪士尼当年从鲍勃·艾格（Bob Iger）仓促交棒给鲍勃·查佩克（Bob Chapek）的内耗悲剧，也不愿像威瑞森（Verizon）聘请 67 岁的丹·舒尔曼（Dan Schulman）那样只能做一到三年的过渡性安排。能够为苹果稳定掌舵未来近二十年的人选，放眼望去只有特纳斯一人。古尔曼评价道，特纳斯或许并非世界范围内的绝对完美人选，但绝对是此时此刻最适合苹果、且近乎唯一的选择。 ### `14:48` “跑步机跑者”的革新：苹果史上最庞大的三年产品周期 面对特纳斯是否具备足够的设计创造力来重塑硬件吸引力的质疑，古尔曼坦承，特纳斯在苹果内部此前并不以激进的颠覆性创新者著称，甚至有人将他形容为“跑步机上的跑者”（treadmill runner）——日复一日重复着既定的高强度工作。但他具备清晰的清醒认知，深知苹果必须做出改变，同时他拥有推动公司做出改变所需的威望与人格魅力。 古尔曼透露，在过去的 3 到 5 年里，苹果一直在悄无声息地筹备其历史上最为惊人、阵容最豪华的产品线大革新。未来三年将是苹果历史上产品发布节奏最庞大、密度最高的三年，新产品的涌现程度甚至让他这个常年追踪苹果的资深观察家都感到应接不暇。他半开玩笑地表示，自己甚至一度想把信用卡锁进抽屉并把钥匙扔出窗外，但作为一名科技狂热者，即将到来的一切令人无比兴奋。 - **高管梯队对比**：除特纳斯外，苹果高管核心圈的候任老臣基本在 60 岁至 65 岁以上，特纳斯成为唯一能保障未来 15-20 年连贯领导力的人选。 - **产品线沉淀**：苹果内部已经暗中蓄力了 3 至 5 年，意图通过即将到来的三年发布窗口期彻底扭转近年来的审美疲劳。 ### `17:10` 失去绝对统治力？iPhone 与中国折叠屏对手的竞争现实 在深入解析未来三年的具体硬件新品之前，话题转回到了苹果目前面临的严峻市场现实。主持人指出，曾经有一段时期，全球科技圈几乎公认 iPhone 在智能手机领域是无可争议的天下第一；其他品牌可能只能在性价比或特定局部功能上寻找生存空间。然而今非昔比，当下的市场格局已经彻底改变，包括中国手机厂商在内的竞争对手正在打造极其出色且惊艳的产品，尤其是形态前沿的折叠屏手机，不仅在工业设计上令人耳目一新，甚至在相机硬件成像素质等核心体验上也已经在不少场景中超越了市面上最昂贵的高端 iPhone。这种行业生态的变化，使得苹果即将开启的硬件大反攻显得格外紧迫与关键。 ### `20:00` 西方霸主与中国“外星市场”：iPhone 的硬件短板与折叠屏 Ultra 在西方世界，如果综合考量所有维度，iPhone 无疑依然是全球最好的智能手机。但马克·古尔曼（Mark Gurman）指出，如果单看各个技术细节，苹果既没有最具创意的机身形态，也没有最顶级的屏幕技术——屏幕领域的微弱优势应当归属于三星，毕竟三星自主设计并制造着这些关键零部件；而在西方市场的手机影像方面，则是 Google 独占鳌头。早在十年前，Google 就敏锐地意识到打造优秀相机的关键不在于堆砌传感器和硬件，而在于 AI 算法。相比之下，苹果在 AI 领域显然算不上领跑者。然而，一旦把工业设计、硬件质感、无障碍易用性、软硬件生态以及全套客户服务整合在一起，苹果凭借其“完整产品体验”仍然稳坐头把交椅。 但镜头转向中国市场，情况则截然不同。古尔曼直言，在科技硬件方面，中国市场“简直就像另一个星球”：那里有成熟的双折叠手机、三折叠手机、各式智能眼镜、超大尺寸平板，甚至连人们的办公桌上都摆着桌面机器人设备。而在手机影像领域，vivo、小米、华为等品牌的旗舰机型在正面硬碰硬对决中几乎能把苹果“彻底碾压”。面对中国本土厂商激烈的硬件军备竞赛，苹果亟需迎头赶上。古尔曼认为近期推出的轻薄款 iPhone Air 以及 iPhone 17 Pro Max 算是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，但他最看好的是苹果预计将于秋季（9月至10月期间）推出的折叠屏手机——他将其称为“iPhone Ultra”。 这款定价预计在 2500 美元左右的折叠屏旗舰，在中国市场将具有极强的“社交地位象征”（status symbol）属性。尽管三星作为折叠屏品类的绝对先驱已深耕多年，且在一两年前才让折叠屏真正达到适合日常主力机的水准，但对于古尔曼这类多年来苦等折叠屏、却绝对不愿离开 iOS 生态的核心用户来说，苹果的入局依然极具吸引力。 - **西方影像与屏幕标杆**：Google 凭借近十年的 AI 算法积累在欧美计算摄影中领先；三星在面板与形态设计上稍胜一筹。 - **中国市场竞争压力**：华为、vivo、小米在移动影像硬件与折叠/三折叠创新上对苹果形成巨大冲击。 - **iPhone Ultra 预期定位**：预计定价约 2500 美元，主打超高端及身份象征属性，承接对大折叠屏有刚需的 iOS 高净值用户群。 --- ### `22:06` 错失生成式 AI 浪潮：约翰·詹南德里亚（JG）与库克的最大用人失误 当对谈转入苹果的 AI 困局时，古尔曼毫不客气地评价道：蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）在苹果掌舵生涯中做出的最糟糕决定，就是当年雇佣了谁来主管人工智能部门。谈及这位主管，对话中充满了讽刺与叹息——“上帝保佑他，他人非常好，真是个好人，但他在这件事上就表现得这么糟糕。”这位被称为“JG”的约翰·詹南德里亚（John Giannandrea）于 2018 年被苹果从 Google 挖角并任命为负责 AI 战略的高级副总裁。按理说，他原本应是带领苹果主导人工智能和生成式 AI 浪潮的关键先生，但他本人不仅是一位理论思想者，骨子里更是一个“AI 怀疑论者”。他完全错失了生成式 AI 的爆发节点；即便有所预判，也未能在苹果内部配置正确的人才团队和算力资源，导致苹果在整整一代技术变革中严重落后，这至今仍是苹果管理层的奇耻大辱。 不过对谈中也抛出了一个充满讽刺的资本市场现象：苹果的股价此时正处于历史最高位。市场上那些在 AI 领域大举投资、技术明显更具前瞻性的科技巨头（如 Google 和微软），在估值上似乎并没有因为站在 AI 前沿而获得匹配的奖赏，反倒是毫无建树的苹果仿佛“跌跌撞撞地撞了大运”（fell ass backwards into it）。 随后，双方梳理了在讨论苹果 AI 时存在的两套截然不同的语境：一种是端侧/芯片级 AI（Edge-based AI），即利用片上算力与算法优化照片渲染和日常感知，这是苹果一直在做的；另一种则是以大语言模型（LLM）为核心的前沿生成式技术，这才是苹果过去十年彻底掉队的重灾区。进入 2026 年，苹果在内部迫切需要纠正这长达十年的战略空缺。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Apple AI Strategy Crossroads accDescr: Diagram illustrating Apple's divergent AI tracks and executive failure subgraph JG_Failure ["领导层失误与战略分歧"] direction TB A["库克于 2018 年任命<br/>John Giannandrea (JG)"] --> B["JG 身为 AI 怀疑论者<br/>误判生成式 AI 浪潮"] B --> C["内部团队与资源匮乏<br/>大语言模型 (LLM) 严重掉队"] end subgraph Two_AI_Tracks ["苹果涉及的两条 AI 轨迹"] direction TB D["端侧 AI (Edge AI)<br/>神经引擎加速图像与感知"] E["前沿生成式 AI (LLM)<br/>核心底座技术缺位"] end C -.-> E ``` --- ### `25:05` “产品公司”的底色与泰坦计划遗产：Apple Neural Engine 的意外诞生 苹果为何在 AI 滞后的情况下市值仍创新高？古尔曼解释道，华尔街的投资者非常清醒地认识到苹果究竟是一家什么性质的公司——苹果从来不是纯粹的 AI 公司，也不是纯粹的硬件或软件公司，它是一家“产品公司”。苹果的魔法在于史蒂夫·乔布斯开创的传统：将硬件、软件、服务与 AI 封装成一个无缝易用的完整消费品，让复杂的技术隐入幕后。 紧接着，古尔曼揭秘了一段关键的历史渊源：苹果今日拥有的端侧 AI 算力底座，其实完全是一场长达 12 年的“意外遗产”。2014 年前后，苹果启动了代号“泰坦计划”（Project Titan）的自动驾驶汽车项目，旨在正面硬刚特斯拉。在历时近十年、耗费超过 100 亿美元巨资、抽调数千名员工并多次重组公司架构后，该项目最终在 2024 年 2 月被彻底叫停。这在苹果历史上是一场空前绝后的惨败与灾难。然而，该项目却阴差阳错地留下了一笔无法替代的科技遗产——苹果神经引擎（Apple Neural Engine, ANE）。 为了实现汽车的 L5 级全自动驾驶，车辆必须在毫秒级时间内实时吞吐并处理海量感知数据。当年苹果为车载核心电脑研发的高速处理芯片，后来被工程团队精简浓缩，并于 2017 年首次塞进了 iPhone X 的 A11 仿生芯片中。正是依靠这颗从“汽车芯片”缩减而来的神经引擎，iPhone 才得以实现 Face ID 人脸识别、Animoji 动态表情以及增强现实（AR）功能。换言之，苹果如今在手机和 Mac 芯片上引以为傲的端侧硬件 AI 算力，纯粹是当年造车项目的意外副产品。若没有那笔烧掉上百亿美元的造车学费，苹果今天的 AI 处境只会更加难堪。 - **泰坦计划代价**：投入逾 100 亿美元研发资金，耗时近 10 年，于 2024 年 2 月正式流产取消。 - **神经引擎溯源**：ANE 最初是为 L5 级自动驾驶设计的超高速车载感知处理芯片，2017 年精简移植至 iPhone X。 - **驱动功能落地**：支撑了 Face ID 原深感摄像头、AR 跟踪及后续 iOS 关键端侧机器学习能力。 --- ### `28:13` 硬件变现与新 Siri AI：向 Google 购买大模型底座的自救之路 对于整个科技界仍在艰难摸索的“AI 商业化与变现模式”（例如 OpenAI 收入虽高但亏损更为惊人），古尔曼认为苹果拥有全行业最稳固、利润率最高、经过历史验证的路径：销售高溢价的硬件设备。为了将 AI 变现，苹果计划推出一整套外设型 AI 硬件产品矩阵： 1. **带摄像头的 AirPods**：为随身设备赋予视觉感知能力； 2. **AI 吊坠（Pendant）**：可像项链般佩戴或夹在衣领、口袋上的随身外设； 3. **智能眼镜（Smart Glasses）**。 这些硬件的本质是充当 iPhone 的“眼睛和耳朵”，将用户身处的物理环境上下文实时输入手机与 iCloud，再经由端云协同完成高价值的 AI 任务。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Apple AI Sensor Ecosystem and Siri Core accDescr: Hardware feeds environmental context to phone and cloud while Google powers Siri subgraph Sensor_Hardware ["环境感知外设（耳目）"] H1["带摄像头的 AirPods"] H2["AI 项链/胸针吊坠"] H3["智能眼镜"] end subgraph Core_Hub ["计算中枢与云端"] IP["iPhone & iCloud 账户<br/>上下文情境整合"] end subgraph Siri_Backend ["AI 底座模型重构"] AFM["原内部 AFM 团队<br/>核心人才流失流散"] --"耗资数十亿美元采购"--> GOOG["Google 底层模型赋能"] GOOG --> SIRI["新版 Siri AI 真正可用"] end Sensor_Hardware -->|环境音画与上下文| IP IP <--> SIRI ``` 与此同时，苹果正在对其落后多年的语音助手 Siri 进行大刀阔斧的“换心手术”。在此之前，苹果曾自主研发代号为 AFM（Apple Foundation Models，苹果基础模型）的大语言模型。但在过去一年里，整个自研团队分崩离析——大量核心 AI 人才被 Meta 以高达 5000 万美元的天价薪酬包挖角，其余人员也纷纷转投 Google、Anthropic 和微软。自研受阻后，苹果果断掀开引擎盖，转而向 Google 支付数十亿美元，借助 Google 的大模型底座彻底重构了 Siri 的底层系统。 这一重构带来的体验升级是立竿见影的。古尔曼分享了一个生动的对比细节：就在前几天参加另一档节目时，老版 Siri 的用户询问“下一次美联储议息会议是什么时候？”老版 Siri 的回答令人啼笑皆非：“您的日历中没有任何美联储会议”；而在搭载了全新模型底座的“新版 Siri AI”上提出同样的问题，它终于能准确直接地报出下一次美联储议息会议的具体日期。作为早在 2011 年就通过 Siri 开启人机语音交互先河的先驱，苹果在历经荒废之后，终于依靠外部采购让 Siri 重新具备了合格的现代对话与推理能力。 ### `30:00` Siri AI 的定位：套壳 Gemini 与“iMovie 级”AI 体验 在谈及 Siri 的技术底层时，Mark Gurman 明确指出，如今的 Siri 实际上是基于 Google 技术底层重新构建的 Apple 基础模型，核心依托于 Google 的 Gemini。当主持人询问未来的 Siri 是否本质上只是一个“Gemini 的外壳（skin）”时，Gurman 解释称，从某种意义上说确实如此，但关键差异在于它获得了对用户个人数据的深度访问权限。用户可以直接让 Siri 检索短信、照片和电子邮件。Gurman 分享了他日常使用的一个具体场景：别人经常向他的工作电脑发送日程邀请，他只需用手机对着工作屏幕拍一张照片，随后指令 Siri 直接将该日程添加到日历中，整个过程极其顺畅。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Siri AI 技术架构与生态对比 accDescr: 对比 Siri AI 与 ChatGPT 在能力层级上的差异，并展示 Siri 结合端侧数据与外部模型的逻辑。 subgraph SiriArchitecture["Siri AI 架构"] A["用户个人数据<br/>(短信/照片/邮件)"] --> B["Apple 基础模型<br/>(以 Google Gemini 为底层)"] B --> C["系统级实用功能<br/>(拍照录入日程/轻量问答)"] end subgraph MarketPosition["能力定位类比"] D["Siri AI<br/>类比: iMovie"] -->|满足 95% 大众日常需求| E["轻量/快捷/整合生态"] F["ChatGPT<br/>类比: Final Cut Pro"] -->|满足专业重度用户| G["深度研究/长文撰写/复杂规划"] end ``` Gurman 用了一个极其生动的比喻来评价当前苹果在 AI 领域的段位：这就好比视频剪辑软件里的“iMovie 与 Final Cut Pro”。在推出 Siri AI 之前，苹果在这一领域几乎是交了白卷；而现在，苹果拥有了自己的“iMovie”，至于 ChatGPT 则是行业标杆级的“Final Cut Pro”。换句话说，苹果打造出了一个能够满足全球 95% 普通用户日常琐碎需求的称职产品，但它依然欠缺更上一个台阶的硬核能力——比如深度学术研究、复杂文档起草与编辑、精细旅行规划等，在这些专业重度场景下，用户依然得转投 ChatGPT 的怀抱。 - **个人数据调用**：Siri AI 深度打通个人隐私数据链（短信、相册、邮件等），支持跨屏幕视觉识别与自动化操作。 - **能力边界划分**：Siri AI 定位偏向日常高频轻量任务，与 ChatGPT 专精的复杂生成式长文本处理形成梯队差异。 --- ### `34:50` 苹果历史上罕见提价：内存危机、通胀回补与资本开支博弈 针对苹果近期反常地上调多款设备售价，外界普遍将原因归咎于内存供应短缺以及与云端超大规模服务商（Hyperscalers）争夺芯片元器件。Gurman 直言，这一说法“95% 是真实的”。他指出，另一个不可忽视的现实是过去五到七年间累积的通胀压力——在各种元器件成本水涨船高之际，苹果的硬件终端售价几乎一直按兵不动。因此这绝非苹果找借口乱涨价的阴谋论，而是实打实的硬件物料成本攀升。以 Vision Pro 为例，其售价直接上调了 200 美元（约 6%），对于这款本就销量小众的先锋产品，苹果绝不容许自身硬件利润率缩水 1%。公司内部此前设定了兜底期限，到期后便全面启动涨价，预计在接下来的秋季新机发布中，硬件提价的趋势还将继续蔓延。 主持人由此联想到苹果长久以来的商业哲学：当 Alphabet、Amazon、Microsoft 正在狂砸天文数字级的资本支出（CapEx）构建 AI 算力集群时，苹果向来擅长让合作方来扛下最昂贵、最沉重的固定资产投入，这一做法与其过去依托富士康代工制造如出一辙。Gurman 赞同这完全符合苹果轻资产运营的经典剧本，但他警告称，AI 技术过于根本，长期来看苹果最终仍需自掏腰包重建顶尖的内部 AI 研究团队。具有讽刺意味的是，苹果最初所构想的 AI 蓝图是端侧模型推理（On-device processing）结合云端的苹果自研 Mac 芯片，而非屈从于由 NVIDIA 算力驱动的公有云狂潮。虽然长期来看大语言模型必将缩小至可完全内嵌于手机端，但在当下，云端算力依然是通往更高级智能的唯一途径。 - **Vision Pro 调价幅度**：设备售价上调 200 美元（约 6%），反映出苹果捍卫硬件毛利率底线的严苛策略。 - **秋季产品预测**：供应链成本上涨的传导链条尚未结束，9 月新 iPhone 预计将迎来进一步的价格上调。 - **底层架构冲突**：苹果原计划主打“端侧运行 + Mac 芯片云端推理”，现阶段受限于技术发展，不得不暂时向第三方云端超算妥协。 --- ### `37:30` 内存供应链多元化：中国芯片厂商进入测试名单 面对严峻的供应链瓶颈与成本上涨，苹果正积极寻求更多维度的零部件备选方案。Gurman 透露，苹果目前正在测试来自中国存储芯片厂商长鑫存储（CXMT）和长江存储（YMTC）的产品。从全球供应链的格局来看，全球头部的内存供应商屈指可数，基本仅有五家：美光（Micron）、SK海力士（SK Hynix）、三星（Samsung），以及中国的长鑫存储和长江存储。苹果早已全面采购了美韩前三家的产能，如今将目光投向中国厂商已是板上钉钉的事实。 Gurman 确信，苹果接下来将正式在面向中国市场的 iPhone 机型（SKU）中采用中国本土制造的存储芯片。由于苹果本就为中国市场设立了独立的硬件 SKU，在生产运营上切入本土内存模块并无实质技术障碍。这一举动真正的阻力并不在供应链本身，而在公关与地缘政治层面——美光以及韩国竞争对手势必会发起声势浩大的公关舆论战，试图在道德与合规层面对苹果施压。但 Gurman 认为，在中国本土销售的手机中使用中国产芯片本身合情合理，这一商业决策在逻辑上完全站得住脚。 - **全球五大供应商格局**：Micron、SK Hynix、Samsung、CXMT（长鑫存储）、YMTC（长江存储）。 - **特供硬件 SKU 策略**：通过将中国产内存仅限于供给中国本地版本 iPhone，既隔离了外部合规风险，又缓解了单一供应链的产能吃紧。 --- ### `38:30` 苹果入华的 AI 架构：百度外部大模型与阿里的“审核引擎” 在经历了长达两年的漫长延期后，苹果终于在近期获得了中国监管机构的正式批准，得以在华推进 Siri 的落地业务。针对 Siri 在中国可能面临的水土不服，Gurman 详细解构了苹果为了合规而专门量身定制的本土化架构体系。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 苹果中美两套 Siri AI 架构对比 accDescr: 展示苹果在美版与国行版采用的不同技术集成路径，重点突出阿里云的审核过滤机制。 subgraph US_Architecture["美国版 Siri 架构"] direction TB US_Core["Apple 基础模型"] US_Google["Google (搜索底层)"] US_OpenAI["OpenAI (复杂生成任务)"] US_Core --- US_Google US_Core --- US_OpenAI end subgraph CN_Architecture["国行版 Siri 架构"] direction TB CN_Core["Apple 本地模型"] CN_Baidu["百度模型<br/>(替代 Google 搜索与 OpenAI)"] CN_Ali["阿里模型<br/>(审核引擎 / Censorship Engine)"] Gov["中国监管机构<br/>(实时敏感词/法规库)"] CN_Core --- CN_Baidu CN_Core & CN_Baidu --> CN_Ali Gov <-->|"实时双向回传/合规批准"| CN_Ali end ``` 在美国本土，Siri 的系统由三部分支撑：Apple 自身模型、Google 生态集成以及 OpenAI 的外部调用；而在中国，后两者均无法直接使用。因此，苹果选择与中国搜索巨头百度深度合作，由百度模型扮演 Google 与 OpenAI 的替代角色。更为关键的是系统的第三层——阿里巴巴模型。Gurman 透露，阿里巴巴的模型在整套链路中扮演着所谓的“审核引擎（censorship engine）”。由于政策法规与敏感词列表处于高度动态的快速更迭中，阿里巴巴的模型充当了苹果、百度与中国监管层之间的实时安全闸门，不断在设备系统与监管要求之间进行双向回传与校验，严格约束并纠偏百度模型以及苹果自有模型的输出内容，确保一切生成结果完全合规。 - **中美外部伙伴切换**：美国采用 Google + OpenAI 方案；中国则全面转由百度提供外部大模型与搜索能力补充。 - **阿里巴巴的核心定位**：并非主打通用生成，而是专项充当动态内容“审核引擎”，保持模型与监管政策的分钟级实时同步。 ### `40:00` Siri 的终极模型愿景与苹果对决 OpenAI 的诉讼风暴 在探讨底层技术演进时，嘉宾与主持人都感叹如今的技术架构宛如“模型套模型”（models on top of models）。对于苹果而言，Apple Intelligence 与 Siri 的终极愿景正是实现底层大语言模型（LLM）的可替换性。过去苹果在系统中将 ChatGPT 作为 Siri 的外部扩展插件——当 Siri 遇到自身无法解答的问题时，就会自动回退（fallback）至 ChatGPT 获取答案。然而随着全新 Siri AI 的能力跃升，它在理论上将能独立应对绝大多数日常问题，这让 ChatGPT 的内置必要性大打折扣。尽管在目前的系统测试版中 ChatGPT 依然保留，但受近期两家公司法律战的影响，苹果很可能加速切断 ChatGPT 的独家合作地位，未来预计将全面开放权限，允许用户在手机端自由接入并切换任意第三方 LLM。 谈及这场愈演愈烈的法律战，其根源可追溯至两三年前的一场高层人事震荡。当时担任苹果 iPhone、Apple Watch 产品设计及 AirPods 声学与配件等业务副总裁的 Tang Tan，堪称苹果硬件工程组织中仅次于主管 John Ternus 的二号核心人物。2023 年 12 月初，Tang Tan 突然向 Ternus 和苹果摊牌提出离职以加入初创团队。由于他手头牵涉的核心项目极为庞大复杂，苹果要求他留任交接至 2024 年 2 月。然而在暗地里，Tang Tan 当时已与前苹果首席设计官 Jony Ive 以及 OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman 联手筹备一家全新的 AI 硬件设备公司。该团队的目标非常明确：融合苹果顶尖离职人才的工业设计与工程造诣，结合 OpenAI 被公认为当时最强大的 AI 能力，打造一系列旨在颠覆甚至终结 iPhone 统治地位的全新硬件。 在过去一到两年间，Tang Tan 几乎掏空了苹果的硬件工程团队。目前 OpenAI 硬件部门中已有大约 400 名员工来自苹果，约占 OpenAI 员工总数的 5% 至 8%。面对这种大规模挖角与竞争，苹果虽极度恼火却在很长一段时间内无可奈何。转折点发生在今年初，苹果声称掌握了确凿的“铁证”（smoking gun）：一名名为 Chang Liu 的工程师据称入侵了苹果内部服务器，盗取工程演示文稿等绝密资料并转交给了 OpenAI。苹果随即对 Chang Liu 和 Tang Tan 提起重磅诉讼，并指控 Tang Tan 借面试之名将苹果在职员工引至 OpenAI 办公室，要求他们携带苹果未发布的内部工程样机与设备，以便提前窥探未来的技术路线。 尽管起诉书读起来触目惊心，但在法律和行业实际操作层面，其内容显得相当薄弱。关于 Tang Tan 的诸多指控实际上是硅谷司空见惯的挖角和招聘行为，只是被苹果的法务团队包装得像是一出跌宕起伏的“Netflix 连续剧”；然而，如果针对 Chang Liu 窃取核心数据的指控属实，他将面临极大的法律麻烦。纵观这份起诉状，苹果在字里行间反复强调需要启动“证据开示”（discovery）程序，其诉讼策略在很大程度上是为了借此摸清对手的真正底牌。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 苹果对决 OpenAI 核心矛盾与人才流动示意图 accDescr: 展示 Tang Tan 离职后联合 Jony Ive 与 Sam Altman 成立硬件团队并挖角苹果工程核心的过程。 subgraph Apple_Core["苹果硬件工程部"] A["John Ternus<br/>硬件工程主管"] B["Tang Tan<br/>设计副总裁（二号人物）"] C["约 400 名硬件工程师"] D["Chang Liu<br/>涉案工程师"] A --- B B --- C end subgraph Rivals["OpenAI / 新硬件公司"] E["Jony Ive<br/>前苹果设计总监"] F["Sam Altman<br/>OpenAI CEO"] G["AI 硬件新平台<br/>旨在颠覆 iPhone"] E --- G F --- G end B -.->|"2023年底离职加盟"| Rivals C -.->|"大规模挖角入职"| Rivals D -.->|"涉嫌盗取核心机密"| Rivals ``` --- ### `45:00` 穿戴式设备的文化抵触与隐私深渊 随着智能硬件演进到眼镜与随身设备的新形态，公众对隐私的抗拒正逐渐演变为一场严峻的社会文化冲突。十五年前 Google Glass 问世时曾引发广泛恶评，佩戴者走在街上甚至会遭到路人侧目乃至人身攻击。这种对被隐蔽摄录的敌意至今仍未消散，甚至愈演愈烈。如今，从吊坠式设备、随身佩戴的执法记录仪式相机，到形形色色的智能眼镜，公众对于“身边有人正在无死角录像”的心理防线正逼近不可承受的临界点。 这种文化不适感在日常生活中表现得淋漓尽致。当有人戴着用于评测的 Meta 智能眼镜走进亲戚家中时，立刻引发了家庭成员的强烈不满与质疑。尽管设备上配备了摄录提示指示灯，且佩戴者一再保证并未录像，但由于大众深知指示灯很容易通过技术破解、甚至只需用黑色记号笔直接涂抹即可遮挡，外界的不信任感已难以消除。更有甚者，市场上很快会出现完全去掉指示灯、外观与普通眼镜毫无差别的定制或仿制镜架。更进一步，Meta 正在规划名为“SuperSense”的下一代眼镜，其理念将从现有的“按需拍摄”转变为“全时段不间断录制”。未来随着亚马逊、苹果、谷歌、三星纷纷推出自己的智能眼镜，整个社会将彻底失去辨别“谁在录制、何时录制”的能力。作为走在最前列的厂商，Meta 因过去在隐私问题上的不良记录而承担了过多的口诛笔伐，客观上也为整个行业提前敲响了警钟，但这使得苹果等后续跟进者必须面对极高的公众心理门槛。 --- ### `47:00` 苹果未来产品路线图：折叠机、智能家居与 AR 的决胜局 除去充满隐私争议的穿戴产品，苹果在未来的硬件矩阵中储备了大量极具吸引力的新品布局，涵盖了从折叠屏到智能家居、再到终极 AR 的完整生态： - **折叠屏旗舰 iPhone Ultra**：形态在展开后可媲美 iPad mini 的大屏体验，虽然在机身耐用性和价格定位上无法像主流或入门机型那样亲民，但依然是未来几年最具吸引力的产品更新。 - **随身与音频扩展**：包括加入多重传感器的 AirPods、随身 AI 吊坠设备以及轻量级智能眼镜。 - **三大智能家居设备体系**： 1. **家用安防监控系统**：配备室内安全摄像头，与全新苹果安防生态紧密融合，意在正面挑战传统家庭安防巨头 ADT 的市场份额。 2. **中枢级桌面控制台**：搭载 7 英寸屏幕，支持贴墙或桌面放置。设备具备人物面部感知识别能力，可作为全屋 Siri AI 的实体化载体，兼具音乐播放、视频会议和智能家电统一中控功能。 3. **带机械臂的高阶桌面机器人**：搭载 9 英寸屏幕，通过机械臂结构在桌面上实现灵活转动与跟随，可自动面向正在视频会议或交互的用户。 - **Mac 家族常规迭代**：涵盖新一代 MacBook Neo、iMac 等机型。 - **AR（增强现实）眼镜**：预计将在本年代末或下年代初（2030 年前后）登场。区别于十余年前 Google Glass 以及当前同类产品极其低劣模糊的画面质量，苹果破局的核心在于“视觉保真度”（visual fidelity）。虽然早期轻薄款 AR 眼镜在规格上无法完全达到 Vision Pro 顶级头显的巨幕沉浸水准，但苹果的目标是大幅拉开与市面平庸产品的差距，通过跨代级的画质表现彻底重塑 AR 的实际使用价值。 ### `50:00` 苹果未来三年的产品路线图：折叠屏、带摄像头的 AirPods 与 20 周年纪念版 iPhone Mark Gurman 随后勾勒了苹果未来三年的密集产品发布节奏。今年秋季的核心看点将是全新的折叠屏手机以及常规迭代的 iPhone 18 Pro 和 iPhone 18 Pro Max。令人颇感意外的是，常年被冷落的 iPad mini 也将迎来重大革新，全面换装 OLED 屏幕。主持人调侃称自己作为一个“科技保守主义者”（Apple Luddite），最兴奋的反而是 iPad mini，毕竟现款仍停留在老旧的 LCD 时代，而新款将让这款便携小平板拥有与 iPhone 相当的极致视觉清晰度。 进入下一年，苹果在可穿戴设备领域的布局将全面爆发。除了秋季推出的第二代折叠屏手机外，配备摄像头的 AirPods 与智能眼镜（Smart Glasses）也将登台亮相。而当年的重头戏无疑是 20 周年纪念款手机——暂定名为 iPhone 20 或 iPhone XX。该机型据传将采用全玻璃一体化机身设计，与苹果此前推出并在今年持续迭代的全新系统级设计语言“Liquid Glass”形成软硬件层面的完美呼应。 再往后推一年，苹果的重心将进一步向家庭生态和前沿形态延伸。代号“桌面机器人”（tabletop robot）的设备与全套智能家居产品将陆续面世，更远期还有真正的增强现实（AR）眼镜，以及配备 20 英寸超大柔性屏的折叠款 iPad 平板电脑。至于最先落地的智能家居控制中枢设备（Smart Home Hub），预计在未来几个月内就会率先登场。在向 Mark Gurman 致谢并结束专访后，播客进入了主持人的复盘讨论环节。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 苹果未来三年产品发布时间线 accDescr: 展示苹果从今年秋季到未来三年内的硬件与穿戴产品规划流程 subgraph Fall["今年秋季 (This Fall)"] A["折叠屏手机 (首代)"] B["iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max"] C["OLED 屏 iPad mini"] end subgraph NextYear["下一年 (Next Year)"] D["带摄像头的 AirPods"] E["智能眼镜 & 折叠屏二代"] F["20 周年版 iPhone (全玻璃机身)"] end subgraph Future["后年及远期 (Year 3 & Beyond)"] G["桌面机器人 & 智能家居设备"] H["20 英寸折叠屏 iPad / AR 眼镜"] end Fall --> NextYear --> Future ``` - **今年秋季重点**：首款折叠屏手机、iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max 系列，以及换装 OLED 屏幕的 iPad mini。 - **第二年核心**：带摄像头的 AirPods、智能眼镜、第二代折叠机，以及全玻璃机身的 20 周年纪念款 iPhone 20 (iPhone XX)。 - **第三年及长远规划**：桌面机械臂机器人、全新智能家居产品线、20 英寸巨屏折叠 iPad 以及消费级 AR 眼镜；智能家居中枢硬件则在未来数月内即可落地。 --- ### `51:45` 股价新高背后的悖论：供应链整合与“工厂即产品”的哲学 Mark Gurman 离开后，Joe Weisenthal 与 Tracy Alloway 针对这期对谈展开了深入思考。Joe 坦言，自己过去很长一段时间甚至很少主动去关注苹果，但审视当下却发现一个极其魔幻的现实：虽然全球市场上公认苹果的手机未必是最好的（尤其是面对中国厂商激进的硬件竞争时），且在过去十年间苹果在 AI 领域屡屡跌跌撞撞，然而就在节目录制当天的 7 月 16 日，苹果股价却创下了历史新高，成为科技巨头中表现最为稳健的异类。 Tracy 指出，大众固然可以批评苹果在 AI 浪潮中“错失良机”，但从另一角度看，苹果从未背离自己作为一家“消费产品公司”的底层信条——它向来不强求在底层核心技术上充当最早的先锋，而是极其擅长整合并吸收外部供应链的尖端技术。 Joe 对此表示赞同，并联想到此前与 Impulse Labs 的 Sam D'Amico 录制的一期节目。当时对方引用了埃隆·马斯克的一句名言：“工厂即产品”（The factory is the product）。在 Joe 看来，蒂姆·库克的真正核心能力正是供应链的极致整合，苹果交付给消费者的核心“产品”，本质上就是它无可匹敌的软硬件一体化集成能力；这种体验没有第二家公司能做到相同水准，也构成了消费者长期忠诚的基础。 --- ### `53:30` AI 时代的硬件瓶颈与绿泡泡（Green Bubble）的真实护城河 不过，这种集成能力的护城河在当下正面临严峻拷问。Joe 提出，过去的硬件优势（如传感器、光学镜头）正在迅速被计算摄影和底层 AI 算法所取代。如果未来智能硬件的决定性竞争力全部来自 AI，那么云端超大规模算力厂商（Hyperscalers）是否会直接下场做硬件？或者那些将 AI 功能做得比苹果好上十倍的中国硬件厂商是否会终结苹果的神话？“在完全依靠纯产品力的逻辑下，如果核心底层技术脱离了时代前沿，他们的天花板或许肉眼可见。”更具讽刺意味的是，苹果当年明明凭借 Siri 遥遥领先于全行业，开启了用声音与计算机交互的先河，结果却在过去的漫长岁月里“彻底把球踢飞了（completely dropped the ball）”。 Tracy 进一步质疑了这些新产品的实际商业转化力与用户刚需。例如一台“摆在桌上对着人转来转去”的桌面机械臂机器人，在大宗内存芯片短缺、整机硬件成本水涨船高的现实下，到底会有多少消费者愿意为之掏出高昂的溢价？ 在谈到苹果如今的系统生态时，两位主持人展开了调侃：现在的消费者早就对每年升级到第几代 iOS 漠不关心，甚至根本说不出自己的系统版本号。那么 iOS 真正的护城河究竟是什么？Joe 一语道破了北美智能手机市场的社交现实：“我唯一知道的是，如果我不用 iPhone，在群聊里我的消息框就会变成刺眼的绿色，所有朋友都会嘲笑我，排挤那个让群聊变成绿泡泡（Green Bubble）的安卓用户。”正是这种看似荒谬却极具杀伤力的社交壁垒，成了苹果至今坚不可摧的底层依赖。节目在轻松的告别与制作人鸣谢中落幕。 ## Notable quotes > `10:00` 库克未来大概不会再有太多坐在 Apple Park 接受各路名流拜访并合影留念的机会了，因为接力棒即将交接——距离苹果新 CEO 正式走马上任仅剩几周时间。 — Mark Gurman > `11:32` 每隔一年就能拿出一款令人惊呼‘天哪，这完全不同、太不可思议了’的突破性硬件。 — Mark Gurman > `20:00` 在科技硬件方面，中国市场简直就像另一个星球。 — Mark Gurman > `22:06` 上帝保佑他，他人非常好，真是个好人，但他在这件事上就表现得这么糟糕。 — Mark Gurman > `25:05` 苹果从来不是纯粹的 AI 公司，也不是纯粹的硬件或软件公司，它是一家产品公司。 — Mark Gurman > `30:00` 这就好比视频剪辑软件里的 iMovie 与 Final Cut Pro。在推出 Siri AI 之前，苹果在这一领域几乎是交了白卷；而现在，苹果拥有了自己的 iMovie，至于 ChatGPT 则是行业标杆级的 Final Cut Pro。 — Mark Gurman > `51:45` 工厂即产品（The factory is the product）。 — Joe Weisenthal > `53:30` 苹果当年明明凭借 Siri 遥遥领先于全行业，开启了用声音与计算机交互的先河，结果却在过去的漫长岁月里彻底把球踢飞了（completely dropped the ball）。 — Joe Weisenthal > `53:30` 我唯一知道的是，如果我不用 iPhone，在群聊里我的消息框就会变成刺眼的绿色，所有朋友都会嘲笑我，排挤那个让群聊变成绿泡泡（Green Bubble）的安卓用户。 — Joe Weisenthal ## Mentioned Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, Mark Gurman, Tim Cook, Steve Jobs, John Ternus, Bob Iger, Bob Chapek, Dan Schulman, John Giannandrea (JG), Tang Tan, Jony Ive, Sam Altman, Chang Liu, Elon Musk, Sam D'Amico, Bloomberg, Apple, Google, OpenAI, Pop Mart (泡泡玛特), Disney, Verizon, Samsung, vivo, 小米 (Xiaomi), 华为 (Huawei), Meta, Anthropic, Microsoft, Amazon, ADT, Micron (美光), SK Hynix (SK海力士), CXMT (长鑫存储), YMTC (长江存储), 百度 (Baidu), 阿里巴巴 (Alibaba), Foxconn (富士康), NVIDIA, Tesla, Hermès (爱马仕), iPhone, iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone Air, iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone Ultra, iPhone 20 (iPhone XX), AirPods, Apple Watch, iPad mini, Vision Pro, MacBook Neo, iMac, Siri, Apple Neural Engine (ANE), Project Titan (泰坦计划), AFM (Apple Foundation Models), Gemini, ChatGPT, Face ID, Animoji, Liquid Glass, iMovie, Final Cut Pro, Google Glass ## Video description <p>There used to be a time when the latest product release from Apple was a huge deal. But lately, it's been kind of 'meh,' and a lot of the hype in the tech world has been directed at companies doing things with AI. For better or worse, Apple seems to have largely missed the AI boom. But there are signs things might be changing. In addition to appointing John Ternus as the new CEO to replace Tim Cook, Apple is expected to unleash a slate of new products, including AirPods with cameras and foldable phones. Meanwhile, it's also raising prices on a bunch of its devices for the first time in its history, thanks to a shortage of memory. So can Apple recapture the hype and find new products to entice customers? In this episode we speak with Mark Gurman, managing editor for consumer tech at Bloomberg and one of the world's most prominent Apple-watchers. We talk to him about Apple's AI strategy, the origins of the OpenAI and Apple legal battle, what to expect with Ternus in the CEO seat, and when and why iPhones stopped being a sexy piece of hardware.</p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p> [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/0d6108b3-8435-4010-9141-b48f0145a86f/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

[10:00] Mark Gurman: 库克未来大概不会再有太多坐在 Apple Park 接受各路名流拜访并合影留念的机会了，因为接力棒即将交接——距离苹果新 CEO 正式走马上任仅剩几周时间。 [11:32] Mark Gurman: 每隔一年就能拿出一款令人惊呼‘天哪，这完全不同、太不可思议了’的突破性硬件。 [20:00] Mark Gurman: 在科技硬件方面，中国市场简直就像另一个星球。 [22:06] Mark Gurman: 上帝保佑他，他人非常好，真是个好人，但他在这件事上就表现得这么糟糕。 [25:05] Mark Gurman: 苹果从来不是纯粹的 AI 公司，也不是纯粹的硬件或软件公司，它是一家产品公司。 [30:00] Mark Gurman: 这就好比视频剪辑软件里的 iMovie 与 Final Cut Pro。在推出 Siri AI 之前，苹果在这一领域几乎是交了白卷；而现在，苹果拥有了自己的 iMovie，至于 ChatGPT 则是行业标杆级的 Final Cut Pro。 [51:45] Joe Weisenthal: 工厂即产品（The factory is the product）。 [53:30] Joe Weisenthal: 苹果当年明明凭借 Siri 遥遥领先于全行业，开启了用声音与计算机交互的先河，结果却在过去的漫长岁月里彻底把球踢飞了（completely dropped the ball）。 [53:30] Joe Weisenthal: 我唯一知道的是，如果我不用 iPhone，在群聊里我的消息框就会变成刺眼的绿色，所有朋友都会嘲笑我，排挤那个让群聊变成绿泡泡（Green Bubble）的安卓用户。

[20:00] Mark Gurman: In the Western world, the iPhone is unambiguously the best smartphone when you factor it in totality. But they're not the most creative phone. [20:00] Mark Gurman: You go to China, it's a whole different world. I don't think people understand that China is just literally a different planet when it comes to technology. [22:15] Mark Gurman: Tim Cook, his worst decision in his history at Apple was who he hired to manage artificial intelligence at Apple... Bless his heart. [22:15] Mark Gurman: Apple is not an AI company. It's not a hardware company. It's not a software company. It's a product company. [25:35] Mark Gurman: The only reason that Apple has some of the more sophisticated AI hardware on processing in their phones and computers... is because of the Apple Car project 12 years ago. [27:30] Mark Gurman: Before Siri AI, Apple had nothing. Now they've got iMovie, ChatGPT's Final Cut Pro. [34:10] Mark Gurman: If there's one company that knows about 'why don't we let someone else do the big capital expenditures,' it's Apple. [38:10] Mark Gurman: That model from Alibaba is essentially a way of keeping the Baidu model in check. And the Apple model... yes, that is what Alibaba is there to do is censorship. [46:27] Mark Gurman: The visual quality is amazing. It's the best movie watching experience... It's a better experience than watching a big screen TV on your couch.

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Healthcare doesn always work great If you ever waited on a refill or couldn schedule an appointment you get it That the kind of stuff Optum is changing They using data and technology to integrate patient care pharmacy and everything else So healthcare is connected not complicated What that look like Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, do you know what iPhone you have and what iOS you're currently on? No, I have no idea. I will say, I think it might be like an iPhone 11. It is definitely on its last legs because in the past two days, I can only charge it when it's standing up and plugged in like that. you know you and so i've been creating elaborate like jerry rig systems at my desk to actually get this thing to charge so i gotta get a new one so you know what you don't have to get a new one if you go to like any one of these like little random like sort of apple fix-it shops they can like take care of that in 10 minutes and wait i have the right to repair my iphone is that true they take put a little vacuum cleaner in there that what the issue i don think that it because i tried it already i think the battery like legitimately dying i had it for like eight years well i had my i've okay so i think i have no idea what what iphone i'm on i think i've had it for about four years i have no like i don't know anything but there was a point in my life in which i could have answered you said you don't know anything i don't know anything about my phone but there was a point where I could have answered, right? Like if you're like, if at some point in the early 2010s, for sure, if someone would say like, what app, what iPhone do you have? You're like, oh, I got the iPhone 4. I got the iPhone 5, whatever it is. And that was just part of like, I would say, pop culture, like knowing like what generation is. And it's been so long, you know, those Apple presentations, everybody would like tune in like it's a World Cup game or something like that. And it's been so long since these were top of mind things for people. So I have never been an Apple Watcher as evidenced by the state of my phone. But I think part of the issue is also the products got pretty good, right? To the point where you don need to replace them literally every two years for the latest upgrade Or maybe it just Apple can think of the enticing upgrades that people need to see in order to buy something that i had forgotten about until someone i think pointed out recently there was a period in which it was very common to see like people like very cracked iphone screens right yes that was just like oh and it was just like really look and they but they were still usable when's the last time you saw like a badly cracked iphone screen yeah they never and you can drop them now and they're very likely to survive. Do you remember I dropped this phone from the stands at the Jackson Hole Rodeo? Oh, yeah. You were there, I think. Did it fall underneath the – It fell all the way down and it was fine. Yeah. It was probably like 15 feet or something. They work really well. Anyway, I think setting aside the fact that, okay, Apple is still a huge successful company, but we should talk about Apple because it is actually one of these things that it's at the intersection of so much that we're interested in right now. It's at the intersection of the future of manufacturing China. It's at the intersection of memory costs and the degree to which that's bleeding into consumer prices. It's the primary way so many people interact with computers and the internet, and yet it's not a major player in building AI models. [5:00] Like, how will AI change our relationship to just, like, either, like, computing or the internet? It sits, like, at the center of so many, like, important topics right now. And so I sort of want to know, like, what's going on with Apple? The thing I'm really interested in are the recent price increases. Yes. Because you think, like, the story in consumer tech for decades now has been deflation, right? Things get cheaper to buy. And at the same time, you know, it becomes more expensive to live because food prices go up in healthcare and whatever but the story in tech is that prices have been going down and suddenly we have this sea change announced by apple i guess a few weeks ago or a couple weeks ago now saying that actually they're going to raise prices pretty much for the first time ever yeah on a bunch of their products it's really wild like we think that there should just be some like mechanical law that if it's like a gadget it goes down in price and for years i mean it was just a thing. And so it's extraordinary to see like this actually reversing. So I don't know. I want to know what's up with Apple. It's a good time to talk about Apple. Well, I'm very excited to say we do literally have the perfect guest someone outside of probably Tim Cook There probably no person in the world including employees at Apple there probably no person outside of Tim Cook that knows the company better The ultimate Apple watcher, not Apple watchers and Apple watch, the ultimate Apple observer knower for years and years, literally the man who watches Apple, and he is a colleague of ours at Bloomberg. I don't think we've ever had him on the podcast before, which is a shame. But we are now going to be speaking with Mark Gurman. He is the managing editor of Consumer Tech at Bloomberg. He's the author of the Power On newsletter, which everyone should subscribe to. So Mark, thank you so much for coming on OddLots. Yeah, thank you both for having me. Really appreciate it. Good to be here. Wait, I noticed you have the orange iPhone. Yeah, and it's a tank. It's what? It's a tank. It's a tank. But can you explain, like, what is it about the orange iPhone specifically? Is this a thing? Yeah, it is. It is a thing because I noticed that in the old days you get lots of colors. But all the cool people and all the people who actually have regularly refreshed their phones, they all have that orange iPhone. There is something special about it beyond just being one of the Apple colors that they always had So here the back story right For years the iPhones they came in black or white And then back in 2013 they added gold for the iPhone 5S Why did they do that? They were trying to break into China. Everyone knows gold is a hot color in China. They were trying to break into China. That's what my one is. It's gold. Right, right. And then over time, they started coming out with new variations of the iPhones, the cheaper phones. You had the 5C, you had the XR. Now, the base phones, like the 14, 15, 16, those had a lot of fun colors bright colors you had yellow you had green you had blue purple pink whatever but the people who bought the top end phones the pro phones these are the thousand fifteen hundred dollar phones they were like i'm kind of getting tired of just black every year white every year gold every year or silver these muted colors yeah and so people had started complaining to apple we want more colors and apple said what can we do unique for the iphone pros and it just so happens that for the pro phones right the 17 pro pro max series they needed to move to a new material okay so the big deal with the iphone 15 back in 2023 was they moved to titanium okay and they started this ad campaign around titanium that your phone is using the same materials that they use on outer space yeah they always come up with some interesting marketing material but the problem with titanium and they only seem to realize this was such a big deal after the phone shipped was that titanium doesn dissipate heat well It dissipates heat about a tenth as well as aluminum And Apple obviously was famous for aluminum products for many years. And so for the 17 series, they ditched titanium, went back to aluminum. Aluminum not only dissipates heat much better, but you're able to get color to stick to it much better than you can on titanium and so they wanted to do a bunch of fun colors for this first generation aluminum pro phone and so they've got orange they have classic silver which i think actually looks really hot and then you have a dark blue got it but orange it's the hot color it's in all their marketing materials everyone wants to show hey i have the new one the easiest way to know you have the new one is to get this bold orange phone. They call it Cosmic Orange. And then in China, the orange in particular has been a hot seller. The word on the street is that's because the orange is kind of like Hermes orange. To my eyes, I'm a little colorblind. I don't think this orange looks anything like Hermes orange, but it's close enough. It's close enough. It's close enough. And then this year, they're moving to a red, from orange to red, or like a dark wine color. And why is red important in China? The dragon, right? Obviously, [10:00] very popular there. So in other words, I think they know what they're doing when it comes to color. Wow. Hermes orange iPhone sparks Apple comeback in China, according to a random post on Reddit. Well, okay. Since we're talking about China and pop culture to some extent, the other big piece of Apple news recently is that Tim Cook got a World Cup labubu from the Pop Mart CEO. I saw that. I saw that this morning. Tim Cook's not going to have too many more of those opportunities to have people come visit him at Apple Park and take pictures with him. It's all about john turnis his successor very soon we're just a few weeks away from the new ceo taking over and this is something obviously i'm watching very closely if you had me on your podcast two and a half years ago i could have told you this was the guy oh no one else other than me saw it coming but did you did write some profile pieces that like definitely hinted at it yeah well tried to do more than hint but wrote a few about him the last couple years because i knew he was the guy and i think it's going to be an interesting time at apple over the next three years well this is This is another way that things have changed, which is that Steve Jobs was a pop culture figure. Tim Cook became a pop culture figure after taking on the mantle of CEO And I suspect that if you went around and asked 100 people who is the person that they named as the replacement they wouldn I am curious If you went onto the streets of Manhattan, you asked 100 people who's the next CEO of Apple, how many would know? One? That seems high to me. One seems high? Yeah. Maybe you ran into me. If I ran into you. Okay, well, maybe this is a good, because obviously, Frame is like, what is the apple that he is inheriting? But before we get to that, what is it about him that either you recognized two and a half years ago and then the board and the company decided, like, this is the man to take Apple into its next era? Oh, it's actually quite simple, believe it or not. Two factors, okay? Factor one is the products. When you're doing your, not monologue, but your speech at the beginning of the show, Tracy, you remarked that you don't know which phone you have. You know, you stopped counting which number you're at. But I think the big difference is that there's nothing remarkable about the new numbers anymore. The iPhone looked identical for six years up until this big change with the orange phones and what have you, right? So I think the board recognized, certainly consumers recognized, people in the company recognized, that the product is just lacking in I would say sexiness right For lack of a better term Lack of interesting Victim of its own success victim of its own success but remember in the steve jobs days right in the early tim cook days every other year you were getting this breakthrough new phone like when was the last time you went and picked up a new apple product and you were like holy crap this thing is totally different totally amazing it's been a while and so i think apple needed to resuscitate its product design, it's hardware, it's product genes coming off innovative new things. And John Ternus, he was the senior vice president of hardware engineering. He was the guy actually in charge of product development. And so for a company looking to shake itself out of a product lull, putting your new, he's quite new in his senior VP role, your new product person in charge of things, that makes a lot of sense. You don't want another operational person. You don't want a marketing person. You You don't want another finance person. We've went down that road now with Tim Cook for 15 years, hugely successful, time for a new era. The simpler answer is that John Ternus is 50, 51 years old. Every other person on the Apple executive team who could have theoretically replaced Tim Cook with their experience 60 plus okay Some of them 65 plus And Apple the way they run is they run for the long term They wanted to avoid Bob Iger to Bob JPEG situation where you putting someone in who you know is going to fail or you know is going to retire in three to five years. The Verizon hiring Dan Schulman at 67 years old to be their new CEO, that's a one to three year thing. Apple does not operate in the short term. They operate in the long term. So who's the person we can appoint that's going to be CEO for the next 15, 20 years, John Ternus, the only option. I'm not saying that he's the perfect choice in the world, but he's the perfect choice for Apple because he really was the only choice. And maybe they fell backwards into him being the only choice. Maybe they didn't. Maybe this was all calculated years ago. I don't think it was. But long story short, I think this is the man for the job at the right time. Well, so I don't know anything about John Ternus, other than what you just said and some of your pieces that I've read before. But do we have any evidence that in terms of product design, like he can be quite creative and he can come up with the sexy new features that might get people interested in iPhones again? Because if he's been doing it for a while, then I would say maybe not. He's not particularly known as an innovator or hasn't been particularly known as an innovator inside Apple. Some people call him a treadmill runner. [15:00] the same thing over and over again. But he also has the awareness to know that Apple needs to do things differently. And he has the credibility and charisma to let Apple do things differently. And quietly, the last three to four to maybe five years, Apple has been working on its most impressive and packed product lineup, product overhaul in its history. The next three years are going to be the biggest three product years in Apple's history. There is so much stuff coming. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around it. And I've already removed my credit card from my wallet and put it in my drawer, locked it, and threw the key out the window. Not really. I'm going to get all of it. But point being, there's a lot coming. If you're an Apple fanboy like myself, I'll admit it. If you are a tech enthusiast like myself, this is so freaking exciting. Thank you Launching a new campaign or just stocking up on team gear finding the right promotional products makes all the difference 4imprint offers thousands of options from on apparel and premium drinkware to tech totes and giveaways so you can find the right fit for any audience, purpose or budget. You can customize it all, your logo, your message, your look, and many items come with no setup charge to help you save. And if you're really watching the bottom line, you'll find standout choices at every price point, so you can make a real impact while staying on budget. Plus, you'll get expert help, fast turnaround times, and their 360-degree guarantee. So you can be 4imprint certain your order will arrive on time and look exactly right. Whatever your goal, 4imprint makes it easy to find your perfect promo match. 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Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. All right, so we obviously have to talk about the next three years, what these products are. But just one quick question before we get into that conversation. You know, there was a time when I think everyone agreed that from a smartphone perspective, the iPhone was unambiguously the best product in the world, that there were other phones that like maybe on a price adjusted standpoint, maybe were better deals or whatever, et cetera. There are really good phones now being made by other companies, including Chinese manufacturers who like I saw the foldable phones and things like that. They're actually really cool and they're good. And so and I think in some cases, maybe the camera quality is better for some of these others, though. I'm not sure if you take by the most expensive iPhone that you can buy right now. [20:00] Now, is it unambiguously the best smartphone in the world? And what is the gap between that and the next biggest best? In the Western world, the iPhone is unambiguously the best smartphone when you factor it in totality. But they're not the most creative phone. They don't have the best form factors. They don't have the best screen technology. I would probably give that to Samsung by a small margin. Don't forget Samsung designs and develops, you know, all those components, right? From a camera perspective in the Western world, you're talking about Google. Google identified a decade ago that the magic to making a better camera isn't necessarily the sensors and the hardware. It's the AI. And Apple, as we've undoubtedly know, has not been exactly a leader in the AI space. But when you're talking about the combination of design, hardware, accessibility, like a product that people understand how to use, ecosystem, customer service, the whole nine yards, Apple is certainly in the lead. You go to China, it's a whole different world. I don't think people understand that China is just literally a different planet when it comes to technology. They have foldables They have trifolds They have this They have that They have glasses They have bigger tablets They have these tabletop robotic devices on people desks The cameras on the phones in China you talking about Vivo you talking about Xiaomi Huawei they will destroy Apple head to head It's a big, big difference. And so Apple needs to step it up in China when it comes to hardware. I think the iPhone Air and the iPhone 17 Pro Max were good steps in that direction. But if you want to talk about the product roadmap, I can dive into that. I think the foldable phone, I'm calling it the iPhone Ultra. Apple's coming out with it in September, October timeframe, is going to be really hot, really successful in China. It's going to be a status symbol. People are driven to status symbols in China. It's going to be $2,500 roughly. And so I think it's going to be a big seller there, given how popular foldables are there. I'm certainly going to be first in line because I have been waiting for a foldable iPhone for a number of years. Samsung, absolutely the pioneer in the category. They've been working on them for a long time now. They finally got really suitable for daily use a year or two ago. Apple will be there from day one. I would just not want a non-iOS phone, if I'm being honest with you. Yeah right That still a huge thing I going to save the rest of the product launches for the end of the podcast So we entice people to listen all the way through But you mentioned Apple and AI So I think we should talk about this But why does it seem that Apple has, in large part, I guess, missed the boat on AI? Tim Cook, his worst decision in his history at Apple was who he hired to manage artificial intelligence at Apple. Bless his soul. Perfectly nice guy. Bless his heart. Yes. Yes. He's that bad. John, by all accounts, a thought leader in artificial intelligence, but also a skeptic of AI. And so John G, JG, as he goes as, inside of Apple, he was the senior VP of AI at Apple. He was hired in 2018. This was the guy who was supposed to make sure that Apple became dominant in AI, in generative AI, totally missed the boat, apparently didn't see it coming. or if he saw it coming, did not put the right staff and resources on it. So clearly that was a big miss, and Apple should still be embarrassed about it. I think it's worth noting, by the way here, Apple is trading at an all-time high. And actually some of the other – like some of the companies that are among the really big tech companies that have invested more in AI and are doing quite better are not necessarily Yeah but Apple I would be happy for them if this was a strategy No no no no They fell ass backwards into it I'm totally, I totally get it. But what I'm saying is that the market has not really penalized them for the fact that they're not really a player in AI, whereas you have these companies that are very serious players in AI, and I'm thinking like Google and Microsoft, and they're like, the market has not rewarded them for having technology that is near the AI frontier. Now, when we talk about AI at Apple, I think there's sort of like two different things that we could be talking about. So one of them is what we'd say like edge-based AI. Is there AI that's like on the chip that can make a photo render much better than say like a traditional camera architecture? That's like one kind of way we talk about AI. It does a better job of like capturing what the user wants to capture using artificial intelligence. And then there is this other question of like, well, is the company building something that we call a large language model, which is a very separate conversation. It's a different way of understanding [25:00] what we're talking about with AI. Right here, right now, 2026, so it's like, okay, inside Apple, we want to correct our past 10 years of missing out on AI. What do they want to achieve with AI? Well, there's a lot here, and I think I'll take it back to why Apple's at an all-time high. I think investors are smart, and they actually have a good understanding of what kind of company Apple is. And Apple is not an AI company. It's not a hardware company. It's not a software company. It's a product company. The magic of Apple, and this was Steve's big thing, is bringing it all together in one package. Apple may not have the best phone in terms of the technology or the camera, but the complete package unambiguously the best. I think consumers realize that AI is going to shift into products and products that combine hardware, software, services, and AI. And you're going to see some great stuff from them coming in the future. We'll get back to it in the road map section in the podcast. But I think that's their goal, to create products that merge all these things together where the AI disappears into the background. Now, I want to go back 12 years ago. 12 years ago Apple started this big project The idea was to compete with Tesla and build an autonomous car I remember that And that project was canceled in February of 2024 so two and a half years ago So they spent well over $10 billion on it, hired thousands of people, reorganized the company around it. And closing a project of this magnitude is not something that has a comparison in Apple history. This was unprecedented. It was a complete disaster, a huge failure. but there was one piece of the pie there that is actually really interesting it's called the apple neural engine and so in order to do self-driving cars you need to process a ton of data at very high speeds in real time see the world around you process it and so the car knows where it's going and the magic sauce that apple was trying to create for the apple car was the smartest onboard computer or chip in order to do level five autonomous driving that chip they started working on around 2014, eventually got shrunk down into what they call the neural engine or the A&E, and they put it in the iPhone X in 2017. And that's what allowed features like Face ID and Animoji and augmented reality to work. So the only reason that Apple has some of the more sophisticated AI hardware on processing in their phones and computers and what have you is because of the Apple Car project 12 years ago And so that's a little secret background. If it wasn't for the Apple Car, Apple would be even in a more terrible place when it came to artificial intelligence. Okay, but it seems like that was kind of accidental, right? Well, it's all accidental, right? It feels like the common theme with Apple is that they're lucking out a lot. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, but would we expect that? They would say that's strategy, but I don't think so. But do we have a sense of what they actually want to achieve in AI? Or are they just going to experiment with some stuff and maybe it'll stick, maybe it won't, maybe it'll be useful 10 years later? You know, monetizing AI, you know, the jury is still out on how exactly you do that. I mean, you see the amount of money that OpenAI is making versus how much they're losing. It's not entirely clear yet. But I think Apple has a proven business model. it is hardware with very high margins right and we can talk about that with the price hikes later but apple wants to roll out ai hardware products airpods with cameras uh pendant with cameras smart cameras airpods with airpods a pendant smart glasses is that like a thing you'd put like kind of a necklace a necklace or put on your pocket here eyes and ears for your phone ai cloud processing to in order to feed context into your phone and your iCloud account to do AI tasks Those are going to sell and those are going to make money. And so Apple has a proven business model there. The other thing is they have this new Siri AI. And what they've done is they took their artificial intelligence models. Those are called AFM or Apple Foundation models. That whole team just basically got blown up over the last year a bunch of them went to meta for 50 million dollar pay packages right but so they went to google anthropic microsoft you name it so apple open up the hood of their models they're paying billions of dollars to google to have redeveloped the underpinnings of their models and so now siri now siri is competent wait wait so this is i mean this is one of the ironies is that apple was truly one of the pioneers in talking to computers in plain language well they launched siri yeah they They launched Siri in 2011. And I was on another show here the other day, and the host was telling me that he asked Siri, he's got the old Siri still, when is the next Fed meeting? I know you guys like talking about that. And Siri's response was, there are no Fed meetings in your calendar. I have the new Siri AI. And so I said, when's the next Fed meeting? The next Fed meeting gave me the date. [30:00] Siri AI's intelligence. Today, it's Apple Foundation models that have been rebuilt with Google underpinnings. It's Gemini. Okay. Okay. Got it. Okay, so going forward, is the idea that Siri will just be a Gemini skin, as they would say? Like, is that a sense? It's more... Just from the language, sort of, the way we all talk about AI today is like a model, whatever this thing you talk to. It's like a re-skinned Gemini that has access to your personal data. So you can ask it about your text messages, your photos, your emails. It's actually pretty nifty. You know, one thing I've been doing, people send me calendar appointments on my work computer. I take a picture of my work screen with the phone and then just add it to my calendar through Siri. Oh, that's pretty nice. So, you know, how many people have that use case? I don't know. But it does work. It's extremely competent. I would say, you guys know video editing software? Little by. Okay, you know iMovie? Yeah, sure. Okay, so there's like iMovie versus Final Cut Pro. Yeah, yeah. All right, so before Siri AI, Apple had nothing. Now they've got iMovie, ChatGPT's, Final Cut Pro. Got it. They got a competent product that 95 of the world can use but they don got that step up which allows you to do hardcore research documents drafting editing etc Travel planning everything you want to use ChatGPT for. Can't do all of it. Thank you. so you can find the right fit for any audience, purpose, or budget. You can customize it all, your logo, your message, your look, and many items come with no setup charge to help you save. And if you're really watching the bottom line, you'll find standout choices at every price point, so you can make a real impact while staying on budget. Plus, you'll get expert help, fast turnaround times, and their 360-degree guarantee, so you can be 4imprint certain your order will arrive on time and look exactly right. Whatever your goal 4imprint makes it easy to find your perfect promo match Explore the possibilities today at 4imprint 4imprint 4certain Support for the show comes from public If you actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500. Or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the Public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public slash disclosures Let talk about health care for a second It doesn always work the way people expect it to If you ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. Well, let's talk about the price hikes, because this was a pretty big sea change, both for Apple, the company, and I guess in a macroeconomic sense, right? So we're told that the increases are because of memory shortages and component shortages and competing with the hyperscalers for all these things. How [35:00] If that was true. 95% of it. Okay. I think that the other component of this, speaking of components, is that inflation, real thing over the last, you know, five, seven years, Apple product prices really have not increased over that time as other components got expensive and as, you know, inflation has gone up. And so I'm not one of those people who think this is a conspiracy theory to finally, you know, raise prices and blame memory. Memory is a real thing. If you look at the price adjustments that they've made, it is entirely in line with how much more they're paying for memory on a product-by-product basis. For instance, the Vision Pro went up by $200, right? Six percent. Nobody's buying the Vision Pro. They're not going to do anything to lose 1% of their margin. And so they probably set a date on the calendar several months ago, and they said, we're going to use our cash balance or whatever. We're going to use our margins to eat the additional cost of memory up until this date. The date hit. They flipped the switch. they did the price hikes. And you'll see them do more price hikes in September for these new phones. It just occurs to me, it's on the AI component. It's like you see these huge budgets that the Alphabets and the Amazons and the Microsofts of the world are spending If there one company that knows about why don we let someone else do the big capital expenditures It Apple That what they doing But their core history from partnering with Foxconn is essentially, there's this really expensive aspect of the process, where it's very physical. Let's just get another company to do the really high capital expenditure part. You're spot on. It's straight out of that playbook. But AI is pretty darn fundamental. And I think eventually they're going to have to rebuild that AI research team and spend the money to rebuild AI. Now, I'm saying you can do it without those hyperscaler expenses. Apple never wanted this. Apple's vision for AI, and they talked about this two years ago, was on-device model processing. It was about using Apple Mac chips in the cloud, not this whole hyperscaler situation with NVIDIA that you're seeing from OpenAI, Anthropik, Google, you name it. And so the irony here is that this is not a world that Apple was trying to push. They want it all on the phone. And I think eventually these LLMs are going to be able to shrink to the point where you can put them on the phone. But for right now, cloud is the game in town to make better artificial intelligence. Do they have other options for getting chips and components? I know they've been trying to source out of China, for instance. So they are testing memory from CXMT and YMTC Those are two Chinese memory providers There actually you can count on your fingers that the number of memory suppliers there are in the world There's about five, right? You've got Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and the two Chinese companies I named. They already use the other three, the Korean one and the American ones. They're going to do this. Like, I'm convinced that they're going to start using Chinese memory instead of Chinese iPhone SKUs. Apple already has a unique SKU for China. So being able to, you know, add the Chinese memory into that and carve that out, I think, is not that big of a lift from an operational standpoint. The bigger issue for them will be the PR campaigns for Micron and Korea, you know, trying to make Apple look bad for using Chinese memory. If you're using Chinese memory and Chinese phones, I think people in China know the deal there. I'm not really sure why it's the problem of any other country. If Siri is re-skinned Gemini... It's a little bit more than that. Yeah, okay, okay. Does that create issues for China in terms of using Siri in China? Is that a good question? Are they going to have to use DeepSeek or something like that for the Chinese to use? How are they handling that? Okay. And this is actually a timely question because earlier this week, after a two-year delay, Apple finally got Chinese government approval to launch Siri in China Now we talking about the old school Siri not the new Siri AI Not the old one But here what they done So there basically two components to Siri that you can break down You got the Apple models and then you have integration with Google and you have integration with OpenAI. That's the situation in the United States. And so in China, you've got Apple models, and then the outside partner is Baidu. They're the big Google equivalent for search. And so that makes sense to have them instead of OpenAI in China, which both don't work in the region. But there's also one other player. It's a company you may have heard of called Alibaba. And so what Apple is doing with Alibaba is they've got Alibaba models in the system, and it serves as what I call a censorship engine. And this censorship engine is constantly calling back between Apple and the Chinese government, getting Chinese government approval on updates to the models on the phone. Yeah, because the censorship announcements get updated really, really quickly, right? And keywords are now problematic that weren't five minutes ago. But that model from Alibaba is essentially a way of keeping the Baidu model in check. And the Apple model. Okay. And the Apple model. But yes, that is what Alibaba is there to do is censorship. [40:00] engine. Isn't that crazy? Yeah, it's models on top of models. Yeah, models all the way. Well, that's the ultimate vision for Apple intelligence and for Siri is to make the model interchangeable. Now, we haven't even talked about this big war between Apple and OpenAI. But the phone, as you know, it has ChatGPT baked in as a Siri extension. Basically, if you ask Siri something that Siri doesn't know the answer to, it'll fall back to ChatGPT and grab the answer from there. with the new Siri AI it's going to know the answer to basically everything you ask you don't really need ChatGPT these current iOS 27 betas have ChatGPT still as part of that system but the ultimate goal and I think this is going to happen more quickly because of the lawsuit Apple is going to pull the ChatGPT exclusivity in my opinion and they're going to allow you to install any third party LLM onto your phone to use through Siri interesting Wait, okay, talk to us about the lawsuit. Yeah, this is important. Because this seems dramatic. Two years ago, three years ago, dude named Tank Tan, vice president of iPhone product design Apple Watch product design AirPods acoustics accessories all sorts of stuff One of the most senior executives at Apple and by all accounts the number two under John Ternus and the hardware engineering organization, comes to Ternus, comes to Apple, and he says, I'm out of here. I'm going with startup. This is early December of 23. They're like, okay, well, you have your tentacles tied up in so many different areas, you can't leave immediately. So they're like, okay, stick around until February. So he sticks around until February, but in behind the scenes, he's already cooking up a new AI devices company with Johnny Ive, the former Apple design chief, and Sam Altman, who runs OpenAI, obviously, at the time, still does. And their whole goal is to create a new range of devices that will destroy the iPhone, combining the engineering and design prowess of some of the best people who used to work at Apple with what at the time was widely considered the best AI, lethal combo. and Tang Tan has been hiring over the last year, two years, an exceptional number of people from Apple. They've pillaged Apple's hardware engineering ranks. They have 400 former Apple employees in their hardware division at OpenAI right now. My guess is that's between five and 8% of the total OpenAI employee pool is a former Apple employee Kind of nuts Okay Apple has been beside itself for two years about this the hiring the poaching the fact that they trying to compete with them using their best former people, nothing you could really do about it. Reversed the beginning of this year, Apple finally had what they think is a smoking gun, an engineer named Chang Liu. He allegedly breaks into Apple servers and steals engineering presentations and such and gives them to open AI. And so Apple begins building a big case against Chang Liu and Tang Tan, who they allege was bringing Apple employees into open AI offices with prospective job offers and asking them to bring in Apple prototypes and other internal Apple equipment to give them a look at what's coming down the road. What's the open AI's defense here? Because when you read the complaint, it seems pretty bad. Here's my take. Overall, the complaint is very thin. Really? Very thin. Huh. The stuff about Tang Tan, very thin. A lot of that is common practice in Silicon Valley for recruiting and meetings with employees that they've drummed up into a Netflix special. That's my take. The Chang Lu stuff, if true, is extremely serious, and he's in trouble, and that's a big problem. So that is the delineation there in my head. I see. In terms of the recruiting and pillaging Apple hardware engineering ranks I don know how kosher that is I sure there was some you know funky stuff going on That strikes me as just business in California Business in California But we'll see where this lands. But the one thing I'll say is if you read the Apple complaint, they say so many times in that complaint, we need to do discovery to know what's going on. This is a good segue to, like, the new form factors that we might expect for gadgets. And the Google Glasses, like, 15 years ago, when people hated them. People still hate them. My old colleague at Business Insider, he like got beaten up or like got physically. Yeah, remember that story in California? Because someone wanted to steal them? No, he was wearing the Google Glasses and people found it, you know, it was just like very upset about. People really hate them. Yeah, because of the recording. Yeah, everything. Well, Apple has a high bar to cross there because their next big thing is glasses. So this is what I'm getting at. And there's a lot of interest in this. and we know that Meta obviously is really pushing on this hard, et cetera. Setting aside market demand for some of these new form factors, it feels to me like we are very close to crossing a deeply uncomfortable cultural threshold with all of this stuff, where it's like people do not want, you know, if you had a little pendant, [45:00] on in your pocket my body cam yeah your body cam like right now recording this and there's like oh yeah i have the like people would be very uneasy yeah to say the least there's a high bar we think so when we think about the range of like quote ai gadgets setting aside even pure market demand are we going to be in this era where like we're really going to have to like have some serious cultural fights about what's acceptable for people to have on their person at any given time. I walked into a family member's house a couple weeks ago. I got the new Metaglasses for review, and they were very upset that I walked in with the Metaglasses, thinking that I'm recording them, right? And how are they supposed to know? I could be recording them. I wasn't. I assured them of such. But people like jailbreak the light. Yes. It's uncomfortable. you know there are people who yeah use a black sharpie to cut out the light and if they and someone will sell a phone from china that doesn't have any light or any outward in this yeah it's being looking like they will look there no doubt it the unknown short term there will be glasses that are absolutely indistinguishable from normal glasses yes and then meta is talking about what they call the SuperSense glasses right now which are recording at all times versus the current ones where they record as you snap or ask it to record Yeah. I don't know. This is coming for sure. From Apple? No, from all – there are going to be a lot of these products. You've got new ones coming. We will not know. We will have no idea who is recording what's going on. Well, Amazon's got new ones coming. Apple's got new ones coming or their first one's coming. Google is working on this. Samsung is about to launch theirs. Everyone's doing this. And so, you know, Meta has a lot of privacy baggage and they've sort of, you know, soiled the market for Apple and these other players ahead of time by making people uncomfortable with this stuff. And I think Meta gets a little bit too hard of a time, right? I think people go a little bit harder on Meta than they should. But there are serious privacy questions that are being raised here. Serious privacy questions that are being raised here. and it's going to be a very high bar for Apple to meet this moment and get people using these things despite those concerns. All right. Well, other than the glasses that everyone seems to hate, talk to us about what we should actually be saving up our money for, I guess, in terms of new product launches Yeah Well this foldable phone the Ultra is going to be really fantastic Open it up It like an iPad mini Pretty excited about it You know it not going to be as durable or priced as well as like a pro phone or one of the low phones But I think it's going to be pretty exciting. The AirPods, the pendant, the smart glasses are going to be very exciting. The smart home. So they're coming in with three different smart home products. One is an in-home security camera system tied to a new Apple security system. I think they want to compete in some fashion with ADT or some of the home security companies. Interesting. There's a landmark smart home device, which, you know, you can put on your desk, put on your wall, and you can walk up to it and it'll know who it is. It'll basically bring Siri AI to life, pull up your music. You can do video conferencing. You can do apps, smart home appliances, et cetera. It's like a smart home command center. And then there's another device. It's a robotic version. So the one I just described has a 7-inch screen. Then there's a 9-inch screen version, and it's going to be on a robotic arm. So it can move around on your desk. So you can look at it. You can point it to look at people on a video conference. It's kind of nifty. I don't know how well that's going to do, but you know what? They're trying things at least. And then tons of new Macs, new MacBook Neos, new iMacs. Augmented reality glasses is the biggie. Probably end of decade early next decade Taking the glasses but being able to give you information Google Glass Yeah I was going to say so people were talking about AR 10 years ago 15 years ago and hadn taken off What is going to be different that it's like, okay, now people actually like AR and find use for it? It's the visual fidelity. Okay. It's the quality. Have you used the Vision Pro? No. Okay. So if you use the Vision Pro, I would encourage you to borrow mine or you can go to an Apple store. The visual quality is amazing. It's the best movie watching experience. Once your eyes see that quality. Oh, these are the big headsets. Yeah. Yeah, I saw someone say recently they watched Citizen Kane on their Vision Pro. It's amazing. It's amazing. Yeah, it's amazing. Anyways. It's a better experience than watching a big screen TV on your couch. If you don't have a family. Yeah, I find something so dystopian about two people sitting on a couch with their glasses on. And they have marketing around that. And they're trying to make two people wearing a Vision Pro have better interactivity. I think it's crazy. I guess you can hold hands while you do it. But long story short, the glasses of 10 years ago and even today, the AR glasses, the visual quality is garbage, right? You can hardly see what's going on. Apple, their goal is to make a leapfrog AR product. They're not going to get anywhere near the Vision Pro quality, but they're going to get [50:00] quality place. Okay, so the next three years, anything else? So it's like foldable phones, Vision Pro. So we'll start off with the foldable phone and the 18 Pro and Pro Max this fall. You're going to get a new OLED iPad mini. I was going to ask, no one even cares about the new iPad mini. It doesn't get mentioned until now. Yeah, so that's what I'm excited about as an Apple Luddite. I wrote a story about it today. So you're going to get a new OLED display. So same visual clarity that you get on an iPhone. The current iPad mini is stuck on an old LCD. Next year, you're going to get some of the wearables. So you're going to get that foldable phone two actually in the fall, but you're also going to get the AirPods with cameras and you're going to get the smart glasses. And then the other big one next year is the 20th anniversary iPhone, the iPhone 20 or the iPhone XX, whatever you want to call it. And that is going to be an all glass phone that meshes well with the liquid glass, the new software they rolled out last year and updated this year. The year after that, you're going to get things like the tabletop robot. I talked about the smart home appliances and what have you so it's a big next three years for apple and augmented reality glasses behind that they've been playing with this big tablet foldable tablet foldable ipad with a 20 inch screen and then that main smart home device i talked about the smart home hub that be in the next few months so that an exciting one Mark Gurman thank you so much for coming on OddLots that was great I learned quite a bit. Good thanks for having me this was awesome. so tracy i thought that was very interesting i needed that catch up on this company that once like occupied a little bit of my mind share and now i hardly ever think at all i do think it's interesting like as a starting point for all of the like they're not the best phones in the world especially when you bring China into it, they've been stumbling on AI for over a decade, that it's like the one big tech stock that right now today, July 16th, is at an all-time high. Well, I thought it's interesting. I mean, to some extent, you can say, okay, they missed the boat on AI. But on the other hand, they've sort of stuck true to their ethos as a product company that often, I don't want to say leeches off the technology of others, but it's very good about outsourcing tech from other companies, right? Right. I would say you know Mark described it a product company right But the other thing is it a supply chain integration story Obviously that was like that what Tim Cook expertise was etc You know, there's an interesting episode we did. I remember with Sam D'Amico, the Impulse Labs. Yeah, he was talking about it. And he said that term, and I guess it's actually originally an Elon term, which is that the factory is the product, right? Which is really interesting. And so he was like, Why have they been this unified experience that combines really good hardware with really good software? The product is their ability to integrate. And it's not like that's what they're good at. That's their thing. They can integrate many different things better than anyone else. And then people really like the product. Yeah. But then on the other hand, I guess the question is if something like a camera, if the edge on a camera now comes from AI. Yeah. versus like the actual hardware components, then are you going to get a big AI company, a hyperscaler that starts, you know, becoming a product company? Or you just have like one of these Chinese companies where AI is like one random thing they do. And even that is 10 times better than the, you know what I'm saying? And so I do think like pretty clearly from a pure product standpoint there is probably a limit to your point of like how far they go if their core technology is just not frontier It so crazy to me that they were years ahead of everyone else in terms of conceiving of talking to your computer with your voice and then they just completely dropped the ball on that Well, I do also think the other thing – we talked about their ability to entice buyers for these new products, and a lot of the stuff, it sounds cool. A robotic arm that sits on your desk and points at people, I guess. But on the other hand, how much of it do people actually need? How much is it going to cost given that, as we were discussing, memory and components are in short supply at the moment? I don't know. I also think – who knows? I guess part of it may be other companies are all going to build similar gadgets, et cetera. Like, again, the iPhone bringing together this entire ecosystem, like, what are the – I just, like – I don't know. I guess the flip side is, like, we don't care at all anymore about what iOS we're on, et cetera, and it hasn't hurt the company. Well, I was going to say one question we should have asked Mark, and I forgot, but how much of a moat is iOS now, actually? Because people will say, like, oh, I don't want a non-iOS phone. Right. But on the other hand, you don't know what iOS you're on. [55:00] No, all I know is that if I didn't have one, all my friends would make fun of me for being green text in the group chats. That's the important thing. Who's the who's the Android person that's making the group text show up in green chat? Expose yourself. And so I don't want to be that person. All right. So we leave it there. Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armand, Dash O'Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more OddLots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash OddLots, we have a daily newsletter on all of our episodes, and you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash OddLots. And if you enjoy OddLots, if you like it when we provide you with Apple updates, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. Thank you Whatever your goal trade show giveaways client gifts or team gear 4imprint has the promo products to match With thousands of options, from apparel and drinkware to tech and totes, it's easy to find the right fit for your brand and budget, with standout choices at every price point. And with their 360-degree guarantee, you can be 4imprint certain your order will show up just right, right on time. Explore more at 4imprint.com. for imprint for certain. Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? 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