Josh Kaufman Rejects MBA Degrees, Cites Basic Core Pillars for Business Success

乔什·考夫曼摒弃MBA学位，指出商业成功的底层核心支柱 相较于通过低成本试错掌握五大核心运营职能，正规商科学位无法推动高管走向成功。 乔什·考夫曼拆解了所有商业共有的五大核心支柱——价值创造、营销、销售、价值交付与财务，并阐释了为何正规MBA对于实际成功往往并非必要。他重点阐述了通过快速实验检验市场需求、消除客户阻力以及利用人类基本驱动力进行产品定位的策略。考夫曼还打破了“一万小时定律”，提出了用于快速掌握技能的20小时框架，并借助高尔法则解构复杂系统。 任何商业体系都由五个不可或缺的核心要素构成：价值创造、市场营销、销售、价值交付以及财务管理。 (0:00) 学术研究表明攻读传统 MBA 与高管的长期职业成功之间没有直接关联，个人自学与实践同样是行之有效的替代方案。 (10:30) 真正的市场需求验证必须依靠真金白银的投入（如预售或刷卡付款），而非朋友或潜在客户的口头承诺。 (35:32) 创业者应严格区分“假装创业”（如设计 Logo、印名片等表面化动作）与“真实创业”（测试并验证核心业务模式以产生营收）。 (39:11) 销售是企业唯一的现金流入环节，而老客户因获客成本低、忠诚度高，是支撑企业长期盈利的最核心资产。 (60:31)

Author Josh Kaufman argues that building and operating a viable business relies on five core operational pillars and simple arithmetic rather than elite credentials or corporate jargon. He contends that both enterprise viability and rapid skill acquisition depend on deconstructing complex systems into simple parts, managing trade-offs, and validating ideas through direct experimentation. The Five Business Fundamentals and Academic MBA Trade-Offs (0:00) Kaufman identifies five universal components foundational to every enterprise: value creation (solving unmet needs), marketing (attracting attention), sales (converting interest to revenue), value delivery (fulfilling promises), and finance (ensuring net inflow exceeds outflows). While sales represents the sole inflow pillar, the other four require cash outflows. Kaufman argues business is complex due to human psychology and operational moving parts, but not inherently complicated, relying on basic arithmetic rather than status-driven corporate terminology. Consequently, Kaufman questions the broad economic necessity of traditional MBA programs, which frequently cost between $240,000 and $250,000 at top institutions and primarily serve as recruitment pipelines for investment banking, consulting, or large conglomerates. Citing research by Jeffrey Pfeffer and Christina Fong, he notes that business degrees show no direct correlation with long-term executive success; individuals capable of gaining admission already possess the aptitude to succeed without taking on personal debt. Validating Demand Through Behavior and Emotional Positioning (21:53) Kaufman distinguishes "doing business" from "playing business"—the latter involving superficial signaling such as ordering business cards or spending years preparing for a launch without generating revenue. True validation demands authentic buying behavior rather than polite encouragement. Citing Intercom co-founder Des Traynor's view that a swiped credit card proves a problem is genuine, Kaufman advises securing pre-orders or financial commitments before investing capital. Observational research from Procter & Gamble demonstrated that watching consumer habits reveals latent psychological needs that verbal feedback conceals, such as consumers pre-mixing powder detergent by hand. In marketing and sales, Kaufman builds on Harvard research outlining core human drives—acquiring, bonding, learning, defending, and feeling—asserting that offers tapping multiple drives generate stronger resonance. Effective sales emphasize benefits (emotional and functional outcomes) over features (technical specifications), allowing prospects to mentally simulate ownership. In crowded categories, new entrants often gain traction through deliberate counter-signaling, such as Liquid Death using edgy brand affiliation to sell water or BrewDog blowing up mainstream beers to force an identity-based consumer choice. Managing Cash Flow, Gall's Law, and Rapid Experimentation (79:09) To ensure baseline sustainability, Kaufman advises tracking four monthly metrics: sales revenue, variable delivery costs, fixed recurring overhead, and net retained profit. Rather than adopting intricate corporate dashboards, founders must confirm whether net profit justifies their invested time. Entering existing markets confirms proven customer demand, offering virtually free competitive intelligence through analyzing rivals' pricing, packaging, and advertising funnels. To manage uncertainty, Kaufman applies the explore/exploit model from decision theory. Early ventures must broadly test options—such as using blind sensory testing across product variations—before allocating capital to proven successes, while maintaining a baseline exploration budget. Kaufman links this to Gall's Law: all functioning complex systems evolve from simple systems that worked, whereas complex systems designed from scratch inevitably fail. Introducing operational complexity too early adds unnecessary financial and cognitive burdens without proving market demand. Deconstructing Skills to Overcome the Frustration Barrier (99:06) Challenging K. Anders Ericsson’s 10,000-hour rule, Kaufman notes that the metric applies to elite mastery in hyper-specialized domains rather than functional competence. His research suggests acquiring practical capability requires roughly 20 hours of deliberate practice—about 40 minutes daily for a month—capitalizing on the steep learning curve at the beginning of a pursuit. Rapid acquisition requires defining a concrete target performance level, deconstructing complex tasks into smaller subskills, and eliminating practice friction (such as keeping a guitar accessible on a stand). Kaufman warns against research paralysis, where individuals hide behind reading to avoid the discomfort of looking foolish. Because self-doubt peaks during the initial 10 hours—the "frustration barrier"—learners should make a firm 20-hour pre-commitment, prioritizing rapid, imperfect practice iterations over premature perfection. Kaufman frames business literacy as a tool for personal autonomy, demystifying commercial systems through basic arithmetic, customer psychology, and disciplined trial and error. Long-term decision-making, both in enterprise and personal life, relies on mapping unnegotiable trade-offs through scenario planning rather than seeking guaranteed certainty.

商业畅销书作者 Josh Kaufman 认为，商业的本质并非高深复杂的学术理论，而是由五大通用环节构成的动态系统；创业者无需依赖昂贵的传统 MBA 学位，而应通过早期预售验证真实需求、以低成本快速实验推动增长，并利用 20 小时专注练习迅速跨越关键技能的挫败门槛。 商业运作的五大支柱与经营者思维 (0:00) Kaufman 指出，无论是初创企业还是跨国巨头，所有商业系统均建立在五大基础模块之上：价值创造（发现未满足的刚需）、市场营销（吸引潜在受众注意力）、销售转化（将兴趣促成实际付款）、价值交付（兑现产品与服务承诺）以及财务管理（确保收入覆盖支出并产生合理利润）。在这五大环节中，仅有销售环节直接带来资金净流入，其余四项在本质上均为资源与成本的流出项。通过系统化审视这五个核心问题，求职者或管理者能够跳脱出孤立的技术专长视角，建立起如同企业所有者一般的全局运营思维。 针对传统商学教育，Kaufman 援引斯坦福大学教授 Jeffrey Pfeffer 与 Christina Fong 的研究说明，持有 MBA 学位与长期的商业管理成就之间缺乏直接正相关性。排名前十的商学院两年学费通常在 24 万至 25 万美元之间，且约有三分之二的毕业生流向管理咨询和投资银行业，实质上是购买了一次进入大型企业的昂贵面试机会。相比之下，理解业务运作的底层逻辑与常识算术，即可帮助多数人在不承担巨额个人债务的前提下建立可持续经营的业务。 真实需求验证与警惕“假装创业” (35:32) 初创企业面临的最大陷阱在于混淆口头意向与实际支付行为。Kaufman 强调，亲友的赞赏或市场问卷无法证明商业可行性，真正的需求信号只能来自不可撤销的经济承诺，例如客户预售付款、众筹平台刷卡支持或企业采购意向书。他援引 Intercom 联合创始人 Des Traynor 的观点指出，只有看到客户为了解决某个问题而刷信用卡，该问题的真实性才能确立。宝洁公司（P&G）在洗衣粉研究中观察到用户因担忧未溶解而手动搅拌的焦虑，进而研发液体洗涤剂的案例表明，敏锐捕捉现实生活中的摩擦点与未满足心理诉求，远比依赖抽象概念更为有效。 许多创业者容易陷入“假装创业”（Playing Business）的自我安慰中，例如花费数月设计徽标、印制精美名片或耗费数年闭门研发，而非测试核心业务闭环。根据“市场铁律”，在已有竞争对手的既有市场中寻找机会，往往远比凭空教育一个全新市场更为稳妥。创业者应当直接购买竞品、拆解包装、分析定价与广告渠道，利用竞品现成的数据快速识别行业基准，并在核心属性上进行差异化权衡。 人性驱动力与心智模拟销售法则 (42:35) 在营销与定位层面，Kaufman 结合保罗·劳伦斯（Paul Lawrence）与尼廷·诺里亚（Nitin Nohria）的理论，提出人类行为受到获取（财富与地位）、连接（群体归属）、学习（满足好奇）、防御（安全保护）和感受（感官与情绪娱乐）五大核心欲望驱动；产品触及的核心驱动力越多，对消费者的吸引力就越强烈。在高度同质化的市场中，企业往往通过明确与传统主流对立的反向定位（Antithesis Strategy）脱颖而出。例如 Liquid Death 罐装水和 BrewDog 精酿啤酒，均通过激进的文化反差与群体归属感打破大宗消费品僵局，迎合消费者通过消费行为彰显社会地位与群体认同的心理机制。 在销售转化环节，Kaufman 区分了“产品特征”与“核心利益”，强调特征仅用于提供支撑利益的“信任理由”。人类大脑在决策前会自发展开未来场景的“心智模拟”，销售的核心目标在于迅速将客户带入使用者角色。正如 Steve Jobs 当年推广初代 iPod 时，并未宣传其搭载的 1GB 硬盘（特征），而是将其具象化为“将 1000 首歌装进口袋”（利益），促使消费者直接在脑海中模拟日常使用体验并快速达成购买决策。 盖尔定律、简易财务与低成本试错 (94:55) 商业系统的构建受制于“盖尔定律”（Gall's Law）：所有能够正常运转的复杂系统，必然是从能够正常运转的简单系统逐步演化而来；从零设计的复杂系统注定无法运转，也无法通过修补使其工作。因此，创业者不应在首日就试图搭建庞大的供应链或堆砌复杂功能，而应先打磨出极简的可行版本。例如可穿戴设备 Whoop 坚持不增加手表表盘，正是为了防止产品被消费者纳入普通时尚手表的比较框架并引入不必要的系统复杂性。 在财务核算方面，Kaufman 指出小企业初期无需复杂的财务模型，只需掌握基础算术并密切监控按月计费的四项核心指标：月度销售额、交付变动成本、固定开支以及扣除所有支出后的净利润。企业必须确保利润规模能够匹配创始人的时间与生活需求，否则业务将陷入名义盈利但实际难以为继的窘境。同时，创始人应运用计算机科学中的“探索与利用”（Explore/Exploit）权衡模型，以低成本、快速迭代的假设验证替代盲目乐观与僵化规划，通过持续小规模测试在控制下行风险的前提下挖掘市场潜在收益。 二十小时法则与快速技能突破 (99:06) 针对技能习得与创业实践中的能力瓶颈，Kaufman 澄清了 Malcolm Gladwell 普及的“一万小时定律”的适用局限。该定律源于 K. Anders Ericsson 对顶级提琴手等竞技型专家的研究，而普通人跨入新领域并不需要达到世界级顶尖水平，仅需具备实用能力。认知心理学表明，学习曲线在起点阶段最为陡峭；只要投入 20 小时（约每天 40 分钟持续一个月）专注刻意练习，即可跨越技能盲区，实现显著的能力提升。 快速掌握技能的核心流程包括：选择具有内在吸引力的具体项目、明确合理的达标水平、将复合技能拆解为独立的子技能模块、消除练习环境中的物理阻碍，并在初期坚持“以数量与速度优先于完美”。成年人在学习新技能的前 10 小时往往会遭遇强烈的“挫败感门槛”，因自我审视和对表现糟糕的恐惧而选择放弃。通过在开始前做出完成 20 小时练习的心理预先承诺，配合跨领域的广泛知识探索，个体能够系统化地打破心理抗拒，迅速建立应对现实商业挑战所需的关键能力。 Josh Kaufman 的论述将商业运作从高不可攀的学术壁垒还原为以常识、基础数学和心理学为底座的实践体系。尽管该模型通过极简框架大幅降低了早期创业的认知门槛，但如何在缺乏资本与品牌背书的极端竞争环境中维持长期的客户留存与规模化扩展，仍取决于创始人持续在现实反馈中平衡试错成本与执行细节的能力。

## Background 本期视频由知名商业播客《The Diary Of A CEO》（主持人 Steven Bartlett）于 2024 年 7 月 15 日在 YouTube 发布。视频对话了国际畅销书《个人MBA》及《关键 20 小时》的作者乔希·考夫曼（Josh Kaufman），旨在拆解传统高昂商学院教育中的核心商业本质，帮助普通创业者以极低门槛掌握创业底层逻辑。 ## TL;DR 访谈深入解构了商业运转的五大底层基石：价值创造、市场营销、销售转化、价值交付与财务核算，打破了昂贵 MBA 学位与商业成功直接挂钩的迷思。考夫曼指出，创业应从识别真实痛点与权衡取舍切入，利用信用卡预购等真金白银信号验证 PMF，而非闭门造车或陷入“过家家式创业”。在营销与销售层面，应触达人类的核心心理驱动力，通过“反向信号”在饱和红海中破局，聚焦客户终身价值（LTV）与利益叙事。此外，考夫曼还分享了高尔定律、探索与利用权衡模型，并推翻“一万小时定律”，提出只需 20 小时高度专注的刻意练习即可跨越挫败感壁垒、快速掌握任意新技能。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对话兼具务实求真与知性启发，考夫曼的条理严密、系统化思维与主持人史蒂文敏锐的实战追问碰撞出极高密度的思想火花。两人毫无空洞的说教与学术黑话，频繁借助香薰蜡烛做局推演、宝洁用户洞察及 DJ 打碟等鲜活案例解构抽象原理，现场甚至还拿出自制麦克风避震架实物进行互动。整期播客节奏从容通透，既有直击创业陷阱的清醒当头棒喝，又洋溢着鼓励普通人探索未知、消除摩擦去实操落地的温和力量与赋能感。 ## Bulletin - [06:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=381s) 商业世界看似复杂但本质并不难懂，所有企业都由五大核心系统环环相扣构成：价值创造、市场营销、销售转化、价值交付与财务核算。 - [21:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1311s) 检验真实市场需求的唯一黄金标准是真金白银的预购或定金，口头调研和亲友夸奖毫无商业验证价值。 - [51:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3068s) 在红海与高度饱和市场中，颠覆性品牌最有效的定位法则并非兼顾所有特性，而是成为既有巨头的极性对立面并激发强烈的情感共鸣。 - [01:45:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6345s) 大众普遍误读了“一万小时定律”：达到良好、拿得出手的实用技能水准，仅需投入约20小时高度专注的刻意练习与技能拆解。 ## Key takeaways - [06:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=381s) 商业的底层逻辑由五个环环相扣的核心系统构成：价值创造（解决未满足需求）、市场营销（吸引注意力）、销售转化（促成付费）、价值交付（履行承诺）与财务核算（确保收益值得投入）。 - [13:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=785s) 学术型 MBA 更多是咨询和投行等特定行业的昂贵筛选入场券，多项学术研究显示持有 MBA 学位与长期的职业成功并无显著正相关性。 - [16:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1017s) 价值创造的本质是权衡取舍（Trade-offs），成功的产品通常不是面面俱到，而是挑出一两个关键维度拧到极致。 - [21:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1311s) 真实的购买信号永远是拿出钱包、刷信用卡或签署采购意向书（LOI），口头肯定与问卷调查往往存在巨大的认知脱节。 - [23:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1420s) 人们不仅购买物理功能，更是在购买心理安全感与情绪体验；日常琐事中隐忍的微小摩擦往往蕴含着巨大的商业空白。 - [39:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2351s) 创业初期应避免以选 Logo、租办公室等“过家家”行为代替真正的业务验证，需用最低成本制作原型并尽快面对潜在买家。 - [44:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2644s) 营销的心理学根基在于调动人类五大核心驱动力：获取（Acquire）、羁绊（Bond）、学习（Learn）、防卫（Defend）以及感知体验（Feel）。 - [51:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3068s) 在饱和红海市场中突围的最佳策略是成为传统巨头的极性对立面（OR而非AND），借由鲜明站位与反向信号（Counter-signaling）凝聚核心受众。 - [01:00:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3631s) 销售的终极目标不仅是促成一笔交易，更是创造高终身价值（LTV）的复购客户，售后服务是推动口碑传播与低成本再激活的关键支柱。 - [01:06:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3969s) 销售转化的核心叙事必须聚焦于顾客获得的“利益”（Benefits），而“产品特性”（Features）仅作为支撑信任的论据，以此激活顾客的“心理模拟”机制。 - [01:15:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4530s) 成熟赛道的大量竞争对手是已存在庞大需求的健康信号，完全缺乏竞争对手的概念往往面临着极其沉重的用户教育成本与市场归零风险。 - [01:26:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5195s) 创业者不应依赖过往经验空想，而应通过高频的“实验思维”与“探索/利用权衡”（Explore/Exploit Trade-off）收集一手真实反馈。 - [01:34:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5695s) 高尔定律（Gall's Law）表明，任何运转良好的复杂系统必然是从可运行的简单系统演化而来的；直接构建复杂系统注定走向崩溃。 - [01:51:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6692s) 快速习得技能的关键在于跨越前 10 小时的“挫败感壁垒”，通过做出投入 20 小时的预先承诺、精准拆解子技能并彻底消除练习环境中的物理阻力来达成目标。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=0s) 商业的五大基石与技能习得的本质 从最微小的初创企业到全球规模最大的跨国巨头，所有商业组织都建立在五个最根本的核心模块之上。无论是一个人准备开启创业之路，还是在为人生第一份工作或首次晋升管理层接受面试，透彻理解这五大支柱都堪称一种“超能力”（superpower）。作为畅销书《个人MBA》（The Personal MBA）的作者，乔希·考夫曼（Josh Kaufman）长期致力于探究实战商业运作、个人生产力以及极速技能习得的底层规律。他指出，这套体系构成了人类商业史上过去以及未来所有商业计划书的真正基石。 整个商业闭环的起点是价值创造（Value Creation）——精准找到现实中重要且未被满足的需求，并全力加以解决；关键的检验标准在于，这一痛点是否足以让人们心甘情愿掏出真金白银。紧接着是市场营销（Marketing），考夫曼指出人类行为根植于五种核心驱动力（Drive）：获取（acquire）、建立联结（bond）、学习（learn）、体验感受（feel）以及防御（defend）；营销方案触达并调动的核心驱动力越多，商业要约（offer）对消费者的吸引力就越强。与此同时，面对大众普遍迷信的“一万小时定律”，考夫曼直言那是对技能习得规律的误读：想要在任何全新领域达到良好并实用的水平，真正需要的关键阈值仅仅是“20小时”——也就是大约每天投入40分钟、持续坚持一个月。 - 播客主理人史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）在访谈开场分享了频道的订阅数据：常态化收听节目的听众中未订阅比例已从最初的 69% 降至 63%，团队的目标是将该数字进一步压缩至 50% 以下。 --- ### [02:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=120s) 编写《个人MBA》的契机：在无人写就的领域解决自己的困惑 《个人MBA》在全球范围内售出了近百万册，成为商业书架上的经典著作。然而这本厚重专著的诞生，源自考夫曼强烈的个人好奇心、执念以及“解决自身问题”的朴素诉求。大学本科毕业后，考夫曼直接进入了一家大型企业工作，身边的同事几乎清一色来自全美排名前15的顶尖商学院MBA项目。作为一个刚从本科校园走出的新人，他坦言自己当时完全不知道自己在做什么，内心迫切渴望搞懂核心本质：“我们每天到底在这里干什么？商业到底是什么？它是如何运转的？什么是不可或缺的重点，什么又是无关痛痒的杂音？” 带着这种解惑的渴望，考夫曼最初以为市面上早就有现成答案。他设想在20世纪50年代，一定有某位商学院教授早已写就了一本奠基性的经典著作，自己只需要在图书馆把它找出来、读完，就能参透商业的基本法则。然而他翻遍了图书目录、夜以继日地广泛阅读，却发现这样一本书根本就不存在。经历了数月横跨各个细分学科的高强度研读后，考夫曼猛然意识到，这个世界上本该存在一本从零开始梳理商业本质的书籍，既然没人写出来，那就必须由自己来完成。这项业余探索迅速演变为他的“第二份全职工作”，海量的文献研究与实践梳理最终凝结为一套系统化的商业知识体系，向所有人敞开大门。 --- ### [04:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=272s) 什么是 MBA：传统商学院教育与自主学习的认知误区 工商管理硕士（Master of Business Administration，简称 MBA）是近几十年来全球高等教育领域在商业变现与吸金能力上最成功的学位之一。随着全球各类研究生商科项目的井喷式增长，许多职场人士在产生学习商业的念头时，下意识的第一反应往往是在 Google 或亚马逊的搜索栏输入“MBA”，随即开始物色昂贵的商学院项目。考夫曼指出，这种直觉反应往往是一个巨大的误区。 尽管人们想要掌握商业知识的初衷完全合理，但传统的象牙塔学术体系绝非最高效、最必要的起点。绝大多数关键的商业技能与核心概念，完全可以通过自主学习建立，并直接应用到当下的日常工作、现有职业轨迹或是个人初创项目中。商业的底层规律其实建立在少数几条极其清晰、直白的核心原则之上。考夫曼撰写该书的宗旨，就是打破学术高墙，面向没有任何商业背景、缺乏实操经验、完全从“绝对零起点”（Square zero）出发的普通人，把企业的所有组成构件、运作机制以及各环节之间的动态关联拆解得一清二楚。 --- ### [06:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=381s) 像经营者一样思考：五大系统问题与职场跃升的超能力 掌握这套商业底层认知所带来的最直接改变，是彻底重塑个人在职场中的思维层次与晋升通道。考夫曼分享了身边一位女性工程师朋友的真实案例：这位技术专家专业能力过硬，在公司获得了一个竞争管理岗位的良机，但在面试前夕陷入了巨大的焦虑，因为考核的核心议题是“如何改进我们现有的业务业务”，而她作为工程师，对所谓的“商业”一无所知。考夫曼只用了15分钟与她梳理了商业的五大基本维度，她便带着这套框架完成了面试准备，并在次日顺利拿下了管理岗 Offer。 考夫曼强调，任何看似庞大复杂的商业组织，都可以拆解为五个环环相扣的核心系统与对应的问题链： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 商业运作的五大核心系统 accDescr: 展示从价值创造、市场营销、销售转化、交付交付到财务核算的五大闭环流程。 subgraph FrontEnd["前端：需求与吸引"] A["1. 价值创造<br>发现未满足的重要需求"] --> B["2. 市场营销<br>吸引目标受众的注意力"] end subgraph Conversion["中端：交易与履约"] B --> C["3. 销售转化<br>促成客户付费达成交易"] C --> D["4. 价值交付<br>履行承诺并确保客户满意"] end subgraph BackEnd["底座：可持续运转"] D --> E["5. 财务核算<br>收入是否大于支出且值得付出"] end ``` 这种框架赋予了人一种提纲挈领的透视力。当你审视任何一家企业时，只需提出这五个核心问题： 1. 价值创造：这家业务究竟创造了什么独特价值？ 2. 市场营销：它如何吸引那些可能需要该产品的人群的注意力？ 3. 销售转化：它通过何种机制说服潜在顾客掏出钱包、支票或信用卡完成支付？ 4. 价值交付：它如何保质保量地兑现对付费客户所作出的价值承诺？ 5. 财务核算：资金是如何流入与流出的？进账是否显著大于开销？更重要的是，这份收益是否足以让经营者与团队投入的全部时间、精力与心血显得“值得”？ 考夫曼总结道，能够跳出狭隘的螺丝钉视角，像企业的“所有者”（owner）或“操盘手”（operator）一样审视全局，正是高管和老板在招募核心骨干、选拔管理者或投资创业者时最为看重的稀缺特质。随着讨论深入，主持人史蒂文顺势切入了一个更为尖锐的议题：既然商业知识可以通过如此务实的方式掌握，那么如今市面上挤破头去读学术型 MBA 的大批年轻人，是否正在被高昂的学费体制所“欺诈”？ ### [10:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=654s) 商学院真的能兑现承诺吗？ 面对商学院是否真能带来更好职业前景与更高收入的质疑，Josh Kaufman 的回答是“这取决于你想要什么样的生活”。统计数据显示，大约三分之二的商学院毕业生最终进入了管理咨询（Management Consulting）或投资银行（Investment Banking），其余绝大多数则进入了超大型跨国企业。对于那些一心渴望进入这些特定行业或大公司的人而言，商学院确实兑现了诺言——但其实质是让学生花高昂的代价“买到一张昂贵的面试入场券”，因为 MBA 学位是这些行业最主流的敲门砖。 然而，这张入场券的代价极为沉重。目前全美排名前十的商学院，两年制项目的学费普遍高达 24 万至 25 万美元。除非有雇主全额赞助，绝大多数人必须背负沉重的学生贷款来支付学费。无论未来是否喜欢这份工作、无论毕业时的宏观经济景气与否，甚至无论毕业后能否顺利找到工作，这笔巨额债务都会如影随形。 - 约 2/3 的商学院毕业生流向管理咨询和投资银行，其余多进入超大型企业。 - 全美前十商学院两年学费目前在 24 万至 25 万美元之间，多数学生依赖负债就读。 - MBA 本质上是特定行业的高门槛“面试购买凭证”，背负高昂债务的同时伴随着极不确定的产出风险。 ### [13:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=785s) MBA 与长期职业成功的脱节 针对“拥有 MBA 学位与长期职业成功是否存在相关性”这一核心问题，各方研究得出的答案始终是否定的。Josh Kaufman 特别提到了斯坦福大学教授 Jeffrey Pfeffer 和 Christina Fong 在 2000 年代初进行的一项经典研究：如果商学院课程真的具有点石成金的实效，理应看到顶尖高管和成功专业人士中有更高比例的 MBA 持有者，但实际调查显示两者毫无关联。 Jeffrey Pfeffer 曾有一句精辟的论断：“如果你本身足够优秀能考进商学院，那么无论去不去，你都能取得成功。”商学院体系的本质是一个“凭证筛选机制”（Credentialing System）和“事前筛选机制”（Pre-selection）。在真实商业世界里能成事的人，凭借的是真正的个人技能、解决问题的能力、强烈的求知欲与行动力，而不是挂在名字后面的那三个字母（MBA）。 ### [14:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=859s) 商业不是复杂，而是具有系统连接性 许多身处传统职场的人心怀创业想法，却迟迟不敢行动，首要障碍在于他们误以为“做生意极其复杂”。被问及普通人从本职工作跨越到每月通过自主创业赚取 10,000 美元是否可行时，Josh Kaufman 明确表示这完全做得到。他剖析了“复杂（Complex）”与“难懂（Complicated）”的区别：商业确实是复杂系统，拥有诸多相互依存的运转环节（Interrelated parts）；但它绝不难懂，核心原则与逻辑其实非常直接。 商业领域长期存在一种“将简单概念包装得高深莫测”的虚荣文化。人们为了彰显自身地位与专业度，往往故意使用大词或制造理解门槛。实际上，绝大多数商业运作只涉及“常识与简单的基础算术”。创业者真正需要应对的是现实世界的系统性特征： - 商业包含五大核心相互关联的板块，必须理解它们如何协同运转； - 商业是人为了满足其他人的需求而创建的，因此必须深刻洞察人性心理学——既包括自身心理，也包括客户、员工和外包团队的心理； - 理解现实世界的流程与系统规律。归根结底，创业的核心是回答一个最根本的问题：你打算如何创造出他人想要或需要的价值？ ### [16:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1017s) 价值创造的第一步：在权衡取舍中寻找突破口 当一个人手握点子（例如“我想做一款闻起来极香的香薰蜡烛”）准备起步时，商业设计的第一步永远是价值创造（Value Creation）。创业者首先要追问底层逻辑：人们究竟为什么购买蜡烛？他们掏钱时真正想要、需要和寻找的是什么？ 面对这个问题，消费者期待的属性显而易见：香气宜人、外观精致、价格实惠（不觉得被宰）、燃烧时间持久。然而，商业世界的现实不存在“功能全满且完全免费”的完美产品，价值创造的核心其实是**在相互竞争的优先级之间进行权衡取舍（Trade-offs）**。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Value Creation Trade-offs for Candle Business accDescr: 展现从消费者多维需求到商业取舍聚焦并推向极致的决策路径 subgraph Needs ["消费者诉求"] A["香气表现力 (Scent Throw)"] B["燃烧持久度 (Longevity)"] C["极致低廉价格 (Low Price)"] D["外观与美学 (Aesthetics)"] end subgraph Strategies ["战略定位取舍与极致化"] E["路线 A：高端配方策略<br/>复杂化学工艺 + 顶级香气 + 持久度<br/>(接受高昂生产成本与高售价)"] F["路线 B：平价渗透策略<br/>极致压缩成本 + 渠道铺设与无处不在<br/>(牺牲部分品质换取大众规模)"] end Needs -->|商业权衡与聚焦| Strategies ``` 大多数成功的商业项目并不会试图兼顾所有指标，而是挑出一两个关键维度，然后将旋钮一路拧到极致（“turn that dial all the way up to 9, 10, 11”）： - **高端工艺路线**：借助复杂化工与制造工艺做出气味最棒、燃烧最久的蜡烛，但必须接受制造成本高昂、售价偏高的现实； - **大众平价路线**：制造最便宜、最普及的蜡烛，将核心精力放在渠道与分销端，让蜡烛出现在每一个货架上。 ### [19:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1185s) 宝洁式用户洞察：像人类学家一样观察与提问 谈及如何洞察用户的真实取舍偏好，Josh Kaufman 分享了自己职业生涯早期在快消巨头宝洁（Procter & Gamble）家居护理部门任职的宝贵经历。媒体常报道消费品巨头为了解消费者如何使用纸巾等日常用品而做出的“疯狂举动”，而他当年就亲自执行过大量这类调研，曾连续数年实地观察形形色色的人在自家厨房里打扫卫生。 他指出，价值创造过程在很大程度上兼具“心理学与人类学”属性： 1. **带着敏锐的好奇心走入真实世界**：睁大眼睛观察人们的实际行为，捕捉那些连用户自己都未曾意识到的微妙细节； 2. **开展结构化的权衡测试**：不要问泛泛的喜好，而是迫使目标受众做出二选一的明确取舍（例如：“如果只能选一个，你是想要一支燃烧时间极长的蜡烛，还是想要一支散香能力强到爆棚的蜡烛？”）； 3. **严格聚焦目标客群**：调研绝不能找街上的随机路人，必须精准对话那些真正会掏出钱包购买该品类的实际买家。 正是通过倾听与观察这些实际购买者在收窄备选方案、最终拍板掏钱的微观过程，创业者才能挖掘出那些看似微不足道、实则足以决定产品成败的关键切入点。 ### [21:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1311s) 调研的陷阱与真正的购买信号 在商业创新中，最危险的陷阱之一就是轻信人们在问卷调查中所说的话。用户往往根本不知道自己真正想要什么，他们在主观想法与实际掏出钱包之间存在着巨大的脱节。Steven Bartlett 分享了他在录制英国著名商业投资真人秀《龙穴》（Dragons' Den，相当于美国的《创智赢家 / Shark Tank》）时的深刻感受： > “这是我在《龙穴》上听到最普遍的一句话——‘我有个点子，我朋友和我妈妈都说太棒了，他们肯定会买！’每当听到这个，我心里的想法就是：这他妈一点意义都没有（means fucking nothing）。” 许多创业者辞去工作、耗费数年心血去开发一个产品，仅仅是因为最好的朋友和母亲嘴上承诺“会买”，并在试用样品后表示“很喜欢”。克服这种认知偏差的唯一真正方法，是要求用户支付**早期预购款（Early Pre-orders）**。Josh Kaufman 指出，这正是 Kickstarter 等众筹平台诞生的核心逻辑：拿出概念与确切交付方案，然后请对方输入信用卡信息。无论是消费端的预付款，还是面向中大型企业的意向书（Letter of Intent，承诺在达成特定规格后以某价格采购），只有拿出钱包、支票簿或输入信用卡的举动，才是真正值得追寻的强购买信号。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 验证商业创意的信号等级 accDescr: 对比口头承诺等虚假信号与预购定金等真实购买信号的差异 subgraph WeakSignals["虚假验证信号（低信噪比）"] A["问卷调查反馈"] B["亲朋好友的口头赞许"] C["免费试用后的好评"] end subgraph RealSignals["真实购买信号（真金白银）"] D["Kickstarter 众筹预购"] E["输入信用卡支付定金"] F["企业客户的采购意向书 (LOI)"] end WeakSignals -.->|"无法证明支付意愿"| RealSignals ``` --- ### [23:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1420s) 行为胜于言语：从宝洁洗衣液看未被满足的心理需求 当人们的言语和行为发生冲突时，永远要关注他们的实际行为。Josh Kaufman 分享了宝洁（Procter & Gamble / P&G）消费者研究部门的一个经典案例： 在洗衣粉时代，一名宝洁研究员来到一位女士家中观察她洗衣服的真实流程。这位女士启动洗衣机后，站在机器旁足足等待了 15 到 20 秒，毫无动作。研究员好奇地问她在做什么，她回答道： > “我在等洗衣桶底部注满水。如果底部没有水就直接把洗衣粉倒进去，粉末就无法完全溶解。你必须等水漫上来一点，倒入洗衣粉，用手在水底搅和一圈让它充分化开，最后才能把脏衣服放进去。” 当研究员将这个发现带回研发部门时，实验室的化学家们不屑一顾，嘲讽道：“这太愚蠢了，我们的实验数据和科学测试早已证明洗衣粉能够百分之百溶解，这根本不是个问题。”然而，消费者研究人员敏锐地指出，这绝非物理问题，而是一个**未被满足的心理安全感需求（Psychological Need）**——用户需要确信洗涤剂能彻底溶解且不伤衣物。 宝洁针对这一心理痛点研发出了液体洗衣液（Liquid Laundry Detergent），如今它已演变成每年数百亿美元规模的庞大品类。它的诞生并非因为物理功能的不足，而是源自观察微小行为后捕捉到的心理诉求。 - **多场景的气味心理学**：以香氛与清洁用品为例，开盖嗅闻的味道与倒入水桶稀释拖地时的挥发完全不同。 - **蜡烛的“冷香散发”（Cold Throw）**：大量蜡烛消费者在购买时，核心考量是蜡烛静置在桌上不点燃时自然散发的香气强度，而非仅仅看点燃时的表现。 --- ### [27:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1670s) 观察现实世界：在微小摩擦中寻找百万商机 听完洗衣粉的案例，Steven Bartlett 惊呼自己小时候也干过一模一样的事：趁父母外出尝试用洗衣机时，他会把粉末倒进凹槽，用自来水冲并伸出手指去搅匀。这表明人类共享着相似的认知偏差与心理机制，仅凭坐在会议室里空想，永远不可能猜出消费者的真实行为。 人类永远不会缺少需要解决的问题。与其坐在桌前苦思冥想，不如怀着敏锐的观察力走进真实世界，成为一个客观的“墙上苍蝇（Fly on the wall）”或抽身到俯瞰视角，记录日常生活中那些带来摩擦、不适或未被优化的细节。 - **亚马逊 Prime 的起源**：思考如何消除一切购物摩擦，让用户只需轻点一下按钮，商品便在 24 至 48 小时内神奇地送达家门口。 - **快消品包装设计的升级**：在超市货架前吸引用户注意力，并在日常拿取使用中带来愉悦体验，直接决定了数以亿计的货物流转。 Steven 现场举了一个身边的典型痛点作为印证： > “我们做《The Diary Of A CEO》这档播客已经三四年了。每一次录制之前，团队的 Jack 都会走进来叮嘱嘉宾：‘请千万不要敲桌子，因为你一敲桌子，震动就会直接传进麦克风里。’我们念叨了整整几年，却从没想过去真正解决它。如果这屋里哪怕有一个真正的创业者，早就设计出一款自带新型悬浮减震底座的麦克风来阻隔震动了。” 生活中充斥着这种“习以为常、默认世界本就如此”的琐碎烦恼与妥协。每一个被人们隐忍接受的不便，本质上都是留给敏锐创业者的巨大商业空白。 ### [32:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1929s) 麦克风避震架实物插曲与创业者的核心特质 录音棚现场发生了一段有趣的插曲：演播团队的成员 Jack 在角落试图隔空辩解什么，但由于没麦克风声音传不过来。话题转向现场使用的 Shure SM7B 麦克风——这种麦克风对桌面震动非常敏感，极难做避震处理。Josh Kaufman 提到有一家名为 Rycote 的公司生产非常出色的通用麦克风防震架。Steven Bartlett 灵机一动提议干脆自己做一款并推向市场。Jack 随即从里屋拿出了自己亲手打造的原型装置：一个试图用橡胶悬挂麦克风、从而隔绝桌面震动传导的精巧构件。尽管团队测试后发现它并未生效，而且由于演播室日常忙于处理各种更重要的事情，这个小发明的改进优先级并不高，但它却生动体现了商业创新的源头。 每个人在日常生活中都会遇到各种令人抓狂的痛点，看到某些事物觉得“这完全可以做得更好”。普通人往往只是摇摇头，心想“希望别人能把这事解决了”；而创业者与非创业者最根本的分水岭在于，创业者会指着那个痛点说：“我要成为亲手解决这个问题的人。” - 创业的萌芽往往来自于日常最直接的挫败感与痛点。 - 绝大多数人选择视而不见或坐等他人解决，只有真正的创业者才会将其视为创造价值的商业机会。 ### [33:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2003s) 价值的12种形式、原型设计与关键假设验证 一旦创业者决定解决问题，下一步该如何推进取决于具体想法的形态。Josh Kaufman 指出，这涉及到不同商业形态的分类：是实体产品（Product）、专业服务（Service），还是共享资源（Shared Resource）、会员订阅（Membership）？在《个人MBA》（The Personal MBA）一书中，他总结了价值创造的 12 种基本形式。 在创业早期阶段，最核心的工作是制作原型（Prototyping），找到潜在受益者去获取真实的反馈、建议和视角。这些信息决定了创业者是该继续深挖，还是趁早止损——很多时候反馈会证明这虽然是个好点子，但出于各种现实限制根本无法成为一门可持续的生意。创业初期的核心是提炼出商业成立的“关键假设”（Critical Assumptions）： - 这个构想具体是什么？它如何运作？ - 能否画出足够详细的草图，明确接下来必须回答的关键问题？ - 商业构想能否满足这些关键假设？如果能，进入下一步；如果不能，果断放弃寻找下一个方向。 以现场的麦克风为例，团队做出的关键假设是“桌面的机械震动可以通过某种物理隔绝手段消除”，并尝试用橡胶悬挂来解决。尽管这次尝试失败了，但这正是验证假设的过程。而且解决手段并不唯一——或许只要换一种有现成避震方案的麦克风就能解决，具体取决于创业者面对的现实约束条件。这种不断试验、不断经历失败的迭代过程，是每一位创造价值的创业者都必须趟过的必经之路。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 商业想法验证循环流程图 accDescr: 展示从识别日常痛点、提出关键假设、制作原型测试到根据真实反馈决定迭代或放弃的完整循环流程。 subgraph Ideation["发现与构想"] A["日常痛点 / 真实需求"] --> B["提出关键假设与解决方案"] end subgraph Prototyping["原型与验证"] B --> C["低成本制作原型"] C --> D["面向潜在用户测试与收集反馈"] end subgraph Decision["决策分流"] D --> E{"假设是否成立且具备商业可行性?"} E -- "否" --> F["果断放弃 / 转向新想法"] E -- "是" --> G["小规模试产 / 进入下一阶段"] end ``` ### [36:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2160s) 验证真实市场：别问“想不想要”，看有没有人掏信用卡预购 很多人在初次尝试失败后就选择彻底放弃，而决定是否值得坚持下去的核心在于市场的供求经济学法则： 1. **痛点规模**：这是仅属于极少数人的冷门困扰，还是海量人群的普遍痛点？ 2. **紧急程度与支付意愿**：这是不是大牌播客主愿意花费数千美元来解决的迫切刚需？ 要测算市场规模，价值创造与市场营销便在此处交汇。创业者需要走出办公室，寻找具有同类问题与困扰的目标群体。然而仅仅去问对方“你想不想要这个产品”是远远不够的，因为口头肯定毫无成本。 Josh Kaufman 强调，验证市场真正的第二步是**要求对方预购（Pre-order）**。他引用了客服软件巨头 Intercom 联合创始人 Des Traynor 的经典名言： > “给我看一张为了解决这个问题而刷过的信用卡，我就承认这个痛点是真实存在的。”（"Show me a credit card that has been swiped to solve this problem, and I will concede that the problem is real."） Steven Bartlett 随即以麦克风为例推演落地路径：与其盲目投入巨资开模制造全新的麦克风减震系统，不如先为播客主建立一个预购等待名单（Waiting List），看看有没有几十甚至几百人愿意在产品还没做出来之前就刷卡预付。如果真的有几百人真金白银掏了钱，再去投入研发并小批量试产以控制风险，听取首批天使用户的反馈，再逐步放大生产规模。 ### [39:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2351s) “做业务”还是“过家家”：过早追求大场面的致命误区 目前许多初创业者的致命误区在于，他们花费两三年时间闭门造车、筹集数万美元资金，把所有赌注全部押在所谓的“盛大发布日”（Launch Day）。Josh Kaufman 直言，这根本是在**“过家家”（Playing Business）而非“做业务”（Doing Business）**。 很多人一兴奋要创业，首先去做的却是选 Logo、印高档名片、租办公室，这些都只是浮于表面的身份象征（Signaling），是在扮演一个“创业者角色”。真实的商业运作本质非常朴素，只有五大支柱： 1. **价值创造（Value Creation）** 2. **市场营销（Marketing）** 3. **销售转化（Sales）** 4. **价值交付（Value Delivery）** 5. **财务管理（Finance）** 在想法验证阶段，创业者应跳过所有花哨的形式，用最短的时间和最少的金钱，直接把有价值的原型推到潜在买家面前，测试他们是否愿意付钱。最悲惨的创业悲剧莫过于：向风投机构融了数百万美元，辛辛苦苦搭建出一整套庞大系统，最后发布时却发现根本没有任何人愿意买单。 ### [40:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2449s) 商业的本质是创造价值：远离无价值的骗局 当被问及为何思考商业想法必须从“给他人创造价值”出发时，Josh Kaufman 给出了极为坚定的定性：**如果你从根本上没有为他人提供价值，你根本就不配拥有任何生意。** 一个只懂得大肆营销与销售、交付给客户的却毫无价值的事物，本质上就是一场“骗局”（Scam）。 在 Josh 眼中，商业是一个极具创造性与生产性的崇高行为（Generative Act）： - 你走进现实世界，发现未被满足的痛点； - 你打造出解决方案，从根本上让世界变得更美好了一点； - 你将它带到在乎它的人面前，说服他们尝试并真正解决了他们的困难； - 用户因获得实实在在的价值而心甘情愿付钱给你，使这个循环得以持续运转。 Josh 感叹，一套运转良好的商业系统本身就是一种“极致之美”（A thing of beauty）。它既解决了别人的问题，让创业者获得了合理回报，又保障了改善生活的正向循环，这是一种极其美好的生活方式。而一切良性循环的绝对起点，永远只能是那个最核心的问题：“你究竟为别人创造了什么价值？” ### [42:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2549s) 商业的第二步：营销的本质与“吸引注意力” 在确立了能够为目标受众创造价值的产品之后，商业运作顺理成章地迈入第二步：营销（Marketing）。Josh Kaufman 认为营销是一件极富趣味的事情，其核心命题非常纯粹——“究竟谁可能会对这个东西感兴趣？”。商业中最残酷的现实在于：如果根本没有人知道你的存在，就绝不可能有人购买你的产品。因此，营销本质上是一个“吸引注意力”的过程，它要精准捕捉那些可能对你所创造的价值感兴趣的人群，并在理想状态下激发他们的好奇心，让他们渴望了解更多、主动索取额外信息，进而与你的品牌发生互动。 许多创业者常常将营销（Marketing）与销售（Sales）混为一谈，但 Josh Kaufman 强调两者在商业链条中是截然不同的独立环节： - **营销（Marketing）**：负责前端的“吸引注意力”与“激发兴趣”； - **销售（Sales）**：负责后端的“说服购买”并将潜在意向转化为真正的付费客户。 做好营销的根本，在于想清楚你究竟在为谁解决问题、你想让他们关注什么，以及这群潜在客户平时聚集在哪里。优秀的营销人必须深入洞察：这群人对什么充满好奇？他们当下的注意力已经被什么所占据？你如何顺应或借势他们现有的关注点，在最恰当的时间与地点切入他们的视线，让他们猛然意识到：“这里有一件东西能让我的生活变得更好，这就是它，这就是它能带来的利益。” ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Marketing vs Sales Process accDescr: 营销负责吸引注意力和激发兴趣，销售负责说服购买和促成转化。 subgraph MKT ["营销环节 (Marketing)"] A["识别受众场景与关注点"] --> B["借势/吸引注意力"] B --> C["激发好奇与互动兴趣"] end subgraph SLS ["销售环节 (Sales)"] C --> D["说服潜在客户"] D --> E["达成交易并转化为付费客户"] end ``` --- ### [44:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2644s) 人类的五大核心驱动力：营销的心理学根基 当主持人 Steven Bartlett 询问成为顶尖营销人是否必须洞悉人类深层的心理动机时，Josh Kaufman 给予了极其坚定的肯定。他引用了哈佛商学院前院长尼廷·诺里亚（Nitin Nohria）与保罗·劳伦斯（Paul Lawrence）合著的经典著作《驱动力》（*Driven: How Human Nature Shapes Our Choices*）。书中指出人类天生具备四大根本驱动力，而 Kaufman 在自己的研究和商业理论中，为其补充了至关重要的第五项： * **获取的驱动力（The Drive to Acquire）**：渴望获得有形物品或无形资产，包括购买消费品、赚取金钱、追求社会地位以及职场晋升等。 * **羁绊的驱动力（The Drive to Bond）**：渴望与他人建立联系、发展人际关系、获得归属感并融入群体。 * **学习的驱动力（The Drive to Learn）**：满足好奇心，渴望收集知识、探索未知、理解世界运转的逻辑。 * **防卫的驱动力（The Drive to Defend）**：渴望保护自身、亲人、财产以及既得利益不受侵害，例如家庭安防系统、加密防护等。 * **感知的驱动力（The Drive to Feel）**（Josh Kaufman 补充）：追求感官与情绪体验的渴望。人们去电影院看电影并不是为了获取物质或防卫自我，而是为了获得情感共鸣和情绪震荡。娱乐产业的基石正是这一驱动力。 市场上绝大多数商业产品，其底层逻辑都是为了挂钩或撬动这五大驱动力中的某一项或几项。产品能够触碰的人类核心驱动力越多，其对市场的吸引力通常就越强大。过去十年间社交媒体平台之所以能席卷全球并展现出恐怖的用户黏性，正是因为它几乎同时吃透了其中的四到五项驱动力（获取关注度与地位、与朋友社交羁绊、学习资讯、防卫自我形象、获得情绪刺激）。 --- ### [46:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2766s) 品牌案例解析：耐克、苹果与驱动力的结合 为了具体剖析商业实战中如何调动这些驱动力，两人深入探讨了耐克（Nike）和苹果（Apple）的营销架构： 在耐克（Nike）身上，核心驱动力体现得淋漓尽致： - **获取（Acquire）**：消费者不仅需要鞋子裹脚，更是在购买特定款式、限量联名与签约球星背书所代表的“身份地位”。 - **羁绊（Bond）**：球鞋文化形成了极强的“圈内/圈外”群体认同——穿上某款特定跑鞋或球鞋，意味着“我是属于这群热爱运动/潮流文化的人”，与同好建立起强烈的归属关系。 - **感知（Feel）**：穿上一双让自己感觉良好的鞋子，会激发一种强大的自信与身心合一的情绪体验。 在苹果（Apple）身上，其更是全方位覆盖五大驱动力的典范： - **获取（Acquire）**：从诞生之初，苹果设备就是高溢价和独特审美品味的地位象征。 - **羁绊（Bond）**：其广告常年聚焦于家庭记录、人与人之间的温暖联结。 - **学习（Learn）**：将 iPad 等设备包装为创造力与学习知识的工具。 - **防卫（Defend）**：苹果近年来将广告的核心重心放在“隐私保护”与“端到端数据加密”上，直接击中现代人对自己数字资产与个人隐私的安全防卫本能。 - **感知（Feel）**：Apple Vision Pro 在宣传中刻意展示父亲戴着头显观看孩子的空间视频（Spatial Video），通过沉浸式回忆已故亲人般的情感叙事，直击用户内心最深处的情绪。 Josh Kaufman 还特别提到了初代 iPod 的标志性广告：鲜艳纯色背景前舞动的黑色剪影，以及那句传世文案——“把 1000 首歌装进口袋”。早期的科技产品往往执着于在“获取驱动力”上硬碰硬，大谈特谈机器有多少 G 存储容量；而苹果果断放弃了冰冷的参数规格，全面转向“感知驱动力”：通过 1000 首歌带来的情绪伴随，彻底唤醒消费者的感性共鸣。 --- ### [49:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2943s) 逻辑更好 vs 情感共鸣：蜡烛与 Liquid Death 的狂热 这引发了一个创业决策的关键问题：打造一款在“逻辑与功能上更优越（Logically better）”的产品更重要，还是打造一款在“情感上更具说服力（Emotionally compelling）”的产品更重要？ Kaufman 坦言，理想状态下自然是兼而有之，但单纯依靠“情感”就能走得极远，即便产品在功能上没有任何客观优越性。以两人前文讨论过的香薰蜡烛为例，蜡烛技术已经存在了几百年，除非材料学出现颠覆性飞跃，否则普通创业者几乎不可能在蜡烛的物理燃烧指标上做出科学突破。然而，精美的外包装、仪式感满满的开箱体验、独特的香氛调配、以及朋友来访时作为餐桌焦点的期待感，赋予了蜡烛极高的情绪价值。香薰蜡烛的售卖几乎完全是建立在情绪之上，而这本身就是实打实交付的核心价值。 更极端的商业奇迹则是 **Liquid Death（死亡之水）**。 - **产品本质**：它本质上就只是普通的饮用水（有时带有微气泡或轻微调味），装在类似精酿啤酒的铝罐中。 - **商业表现**：作为一个相对较新的市场入局者，仅凭把水装在设计炫酷的铝罐里，就斩获了数亿美元的年销售额，成为估值超十亿美元的独角兽企业。 - **致胜内核**：消费者买它根本不是因为水的化学成分比斐济水（Fiji）更纯净，而是因为包装所传达的叛逆态度与群体认同——“我是某种特定生活方式的拥趸，我不想买平庸的塑料瓶装水，我选择 Liquid Death”。它通过先锋、疯狂的包装与品牌叙事，让一个极度枯燥、完全同质化的功能性品类焕发出了巨大的情感溢价。 --- ### [51:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3068s) 饱和市场的破局法则：成为巨头的对立面（OR而非AND） 基于 Liquid Death 的爆发，Steven Bartlett 分享了自己近半年来深度思考的品牌竞争理论：**在高度饱和、竞争白热化的红海市场（如能量饮料、瓶装水）中，新入局者最省力、最有效的营销策略，就是旗帜鲜明地让自己成为市场既有巨头（Incumbents）的“对立面（Antithesis）”。** 新品牌必须在消费者的决策框架中成为一个“单选题（OR）”，而不是“兼容项（AND）”： - 消费者的心智必须被推向绝对分化：走在超市货架前，消费者绝不能觉得“我今天喝这个牌子，明天喝那个牌子也行”； - 消费者必须产生一种非此即彼的身份认同：“我要么是传统老牌能量饮料的用户，要么是这个新品牌的用户，我绝不可能两者兼是。” Steven 以自己投资的抹茶能量饮料品牌 **Perfect Ted** 为例（他录制现场杯中正喝着这款饮品）。在最初与团队开会时他就断言：这个品牌若想突围，必须让顾客在超市货架前产生断层认知——选择 Perfect Ted 就代表着彻底唾弃传统高糖化工能量饮料所代表的标签。正如喝 Liquid Death 的年轻人绝不认为自己会同时去买依云（Evian）或斐济水一样，极致的品牌分化与尖锐的对立站位，才是打破巨头垄断的最锋利武器。 ### [53:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3197s) 社会信号与反向信号：突破性品牌的逆向定位 突破性品牌往往不是通过迎合所有人而成功的，而是通过坚决反对某种既定范式来确立自身地位。在英国市场上，独立精酿啤酒品牌 BrewDog 就是一个典型案例。为了向公众宣告自己绝非平庸的大众商品化啤酒，他们甚至在营销活动中把竞争对手 Carling 的啤酒运到野外直接用炸药引爆，传达出一种极其鲜明的态度：“你要么站在他们那边，要么站在我们这边。” 同样，Liquid Death 等新兴品牌也展现了这种近乎叛逆的勇气。在社会心理学层面，这种现象深深根植于“信号传递”（Signaling）与“反向信号”（Counter-signaling）的博弈之中。 这正是时尚演进的经典循环机制：高社会地位且极具潮流感的人群会率先穿戴某种风格，以此向外界发出群体认同信号，表明“我们是穿这种风格的一类人”；随后，追随者们迅速跟进模仿，经历几代传播后，该风格最终普及到了 Marks & Spencer 或 Target 这类大众零售卖场；此时，原先那些渴望彰显自我独特性的人群为了与大众商品彻底划清界限，便会特意改变风格，以反向信号明确宣告“我们绝不是那一群人”，从而推动整个时尚循环重新开启。社会信号是一个深不见底的心理学课题，其本质在于向世界展示“我是谁、我与谁站在一起、以及我不愿与谁为伍”。反向信号正是敏锐捕捉到当下的普遍主流信号，并深思熟虑地做出站在其绝对对立面的决策。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 时尚与品牌中的信号与反向信号循环 accDescr: 展示了从高阶人群树立新信号，到大众普及，再到通过反向信号开辟新对立面的循环演变过程。 subgraph Adoption ["主流采纳阶段"] A["先锋群体确立风格<br/>（发送群体归属信号）"] --> B["大众跟随者涌入模仿<br/>（潮流向大众扩散）"] B --> C["零售巨头全面铺开<br/>（商品化、失去独特性）"] end subgraph Disruption ["反向颠覆阶段"] C --> D["先锋者转向对立面<br/>（发送反向信号）"] D --> A end ``` 这种策略在商业史上屡试不爽。苹果公司当年轰动一时的《1984》超级碗广告就是极致的反向信号应用——整则广告几乎完全由充沛的情绪驱动，将苹果塑造成冰冷、千篇一律的米黄色电脑主机公司（如当时的 IBM）的宿命敌人。在任何行业中，退后一步从人类学和心理学的视角审视主流趋势，并坚决成为其极性对立面，都能带来巨大的势能。 ### [56:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3379s) 争议营销与极化效应：讨好极少数，激怒大多数 采取反向信号需要巨大的勇气，因为对立面没有既定的蓝图可循，而且特立独行必然会招致猛烈的攻击。然而，只要使用得当、聚焦于产品特性和核心利益，争议本身就是一种极其高效的营销催化剂。BrewDog 在用炸药炸飞竞品啤酒后遭遇了铺天盖地的声讨与围攻，但这种争议带来的巨大能量迫使消费者迅速站队做出选择，最终让它以极小比例的营销预算和远短于老牌巨头的发展时间，成长为价值数十亿美元的商业神话。护肤品牌 Dermalogica 的创始人 Jane Wurwand 曾表达过完全相同的商业洞见：“我们必须激怒那 80% 的人，才能赢得那核心的 20%。品牌不可能让所有人喜欢，那不叫品牌；真正的品牌必须让人产生强烈的情绪反应。” 绝大多数在营销上陷入困境的初创企业，根源都在于自己宛如“毫无存在感的香草味墙纸”（vanilla wallpaper）。许多创业者在开发新产品时，一旦听到第一个受访者说“我讨厌这个，这不适合我”，就会惊慌失措地怀疑自我，试图修正产品以迎合所有人。事实上，商业世界不需要所有人都点头，真正需要的是那一小群比其他任何人都更加在乎你的产品的极度忠诚者。 - **极化效应的商业价值**：适度的两极分化是绝佳的商业信号，它证明你的产品具有足够鲜明的辨识度，能让核心受众产生极度热爱并形成高频、持续的复购。 - **放弃冷漠的大众**：那些对品类本身毫无兴趣的人，即便你花费千万预算、耗费十年心血也无法打动他们；营销人员的核心任务是吸引所有“超反应者”（hyper-responders），至于那些永远不会在乎的人，由他们离去即可。 ### [58:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3519s) 营销的第一性原理：在过载的世界中争夺人类注意力 谈及未来三四十年无论市场与技术如何剧变都依然成立的“捕鱼竿”——即营销的核心第一性原理，答案最终仍要回归到人类心理学层面的“注意力基本规律”。绝大多数人在日常生活中都处于极度忙碌、充满压力、精力透支的状态，无时无刻不在遭受来自四面八方的海量信息轰炸。 正如日常生活中那些车子在路边抛锚、正经历着糟糕一天的普通人一样，当代人对外部信息的承受力早已处于严重超载状态。具体的获客策略和战术会随着行业赛道、企业体量以及时代媒介的变化而不断迭代，但营销最底层、最核心的技能永远只有一个： - **提炼核心价值**：迅速而精准地在第一时间把最重要、最有趣、最具价值的内容置于最前端。 - **穿透信息噪音**：深刻理解人们对于时间和精力的极度匮乏，懂得如何瞬间抓取并长时间锁定他们的注意力。 ### [01:00:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3631s) 五步框架之“销售”：商业现金流的生命线与客户终身价值 在探讨如何创办蜡烛业务等实际商业场景时，商业运作五步框架中的第三步便是“销售”（Sales）。销售形式既包括直接面向终端消费者的线上直销（DTC），也包括借助分销商、零售商等独立第三方的渠道销售。在企业运行的底层逻辑中，价值创造、营销推广、价值交付以及财务分析本质上都是资本和资源向外流出的支出过程；唯有“销售”环节，是真金白银流入企业的唯一源头，这也决定了它在商业全局中的核心地位。 销售绝不仅仅是前端获取订单的动作，它更深层次的智慧在于平衡好两个维度的交叉： ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 销售在商业流程中的双重交叉角色 accDescr: 展现销售环节一方面承接营销的说服转化，另一方面与价值交付衔接确保客户满意度和复购。 subgraph Input ["吸引与转化"] M["营销推广"] --> S["销售环节"] end subgraph Output ["履约与长期复购"] S --> D["价值交付"] D --> R["高满意度客户<br/>（高终身价值 LTV）"] end ``` - **与营销的交汇**：在于如何在促成交易时展现最大的吸引力与说服力，让潜在顾客心甘情愿地掏出钱包，说出“这就是我想要的，请给我来一个”。 - **与价值交付的交汇**：销售的终极目的从来不仅仅是完成一笔冷冰冰的交易，而是创造一个“高度满意且心怀喜悦的顾客”。这要求客户在收到商品后由衷庆幸自己选择了你，并笃定未来会继续购买。 初次获取新客户往往是商业运作中成本最高昂的一环。相比之下，复购客户是企业拥有的最宝贵财富——他们早已知晓你的品牌、认可你的产品品质，企业无需再耗费巨额成本重新唤起他们的注意力。这种客户复购能力所蕴含的“客户终身价值”（Customer Lifetime Value, LTV），即单个客户在与企业的完整交易生命周期中所贡献的全部销售额总和，往往能爆发出惊人的复利商业价值。因此，一旦通过前期努力成功获取了一位客户，企业最明智的做法就是竭尽全力让他们保持满意，并尽可能长久地留住他们。 ### [01:03:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3810s) 客户终身价值与售后服务的真实力量 乔希·考夫曼（Josh Kaufman）用一个蜡烛生意的具体案例，算清了客户终身价值（Lifetime Value, LTV）的巨大差距。假设向一位名叫杰克（Jack）的顾客卖蜡烛，他一年烧 7 支蜡烛；蜡烛售价每支 10 美元，单支利润 1 美元，那么杰克一年能带来的利润仅为 7 美元。然而，换成另一位名叫吉尔（Jill）的顾客，她每周都要烧掉一支蜡烛，而且年复一年持续如此。一年 52 周，她每年就能贡献 52 支蜡烛的消费；如果放眼数年（如 7 年期），她贡献的利润就高达 364 美元。两者相较，吉尔的商业价值远非杰克能比。考夫曼指出，在面对有限的精力和资源选择时，企业每一次都应该毫不犹豫地倾斜向吉尔这样的高价值长期顾客。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Customer Lifetime Value Comparison accDescr: Jack versus Jill purchasing frequency and long-term profit value comparison. subgraph JackProfile["低频顾客：杰克 (Jack)"] J1["年消耗：7 支蜡烛"] --> J2["单支利润：$1"] J2 --> J3["单年总利润：$7"] end subgraph JillProfile["高频高忠诚度顾客：吉尔 (Jill)"] L1["每周 1 支 (52 支/年)"] --> L2["年复一年持续购买"] L2 --> L3["多年复利价值：$364+ 利润"] end subgraph RetentionStrategy["客户维系与再激活"] R1["优质售后支持"] R2["老客户再激活营销 (Reactivation)"] R3["口碑传播 (Word-of-Mouth)"] end JillProfile --> RetentionStrategy JackProfile --> RetentionStrategy ``` 许多公司往往陷入极大的误区，将客户服务视为一种纯粹的累赘，心想：“东西我都已经卖给你了，你还发邮件烦我干什么？别来烦我了！”考夫曼认为这种把顾客当麻烦的心态非常可悲。高满意度、重复购买的顾客不仅是企业长期利润的来源，更是最强大的营销引擎——几乎所有的口碑传播（Word-of-Mouth），都源于满意的老客户主动向可能获益的人极力推荐。此外，老客户再激活（Reactivation）是极其划算且高效的营销手段：比如在一年后重新联系杰克，提醒他去年买了蜡烛，询问今年是否想再添置几支。由于企业早已掌握他的联系方式并建立了初步认知，这种营销的获客成本微乎其微。但这一切奏效的前提，是顾客在最初的购买与交付流程中获得了极佳的体验。 --- ### [01:06:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3969s) 销售框架：从“功能特性”跃迁至“客户利益” 针对如何做成交易、实现销售转化的框架问题，考夫曼深入拆解了最核心、也最容易让人踩坑的思维模型：特性（Features）与利益（Benefits）的区分。以蜡烛为例，如果销售话术仅仅停留在“这款蜡烛由 100% 大豆蜡制成”，大众其实并不真正关心，因为这并不是激发他们购买欲望的根本原因。相反，利益才能直接触达人类的核心驱动力。在营销和销售中，一切叙事都应以顾客能获得的“利益”为核心，而“特性”存在的唯一目的，是作为“令人信信服的理由”（Reasons to Believe），佐证企业有能力兑现所承诺的利益。如果你的品牌主打环保，那么“100% 大豆蜡成分”便成了证明其“燃烧纯净且环境友好”的支撑事实，但它绝不是人们下单的最初动机。 考夫曼引用了商业史上经典的案例来阐明这种差异：第一代 iPod 在宣传时从未强调“内置 1GB 微型硬盘”，而是震撼地宣称“把 1000 首歌装进口袋”（A thousand songs in your pocket）。装下 1000 首歌是顾客切身感受到的利益，而 1GB 的硬盘容量仅仅是实现该利益的技术特性。 | 维度 | 产品特性（Features） | 客户利益（Benefits） | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **定义与定位** | 产品本身的技术参数、成分或规格；充当**支撑信任的论据** | 解决的问题、带来的美好感受；触达**人类核心驱动力** | | **iPod 案例** | “配备 1GB 机械硬盘” | “把 1000 首歌装进你的口袋” | | **香薰蜡烛案例** | “采用 100% 天然大豆蜡制成” | “营造环保、纯净无黑烟的宁静居家空间” | | **心理映射** | 理性逻辑分析（关注机器本身） | **心理模拟未来生活**（关注用户自己的体验与身份认同） | --- ### [01:08:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4096s) 购买心理学：神经机制与驾驭“心理模拟” 当被问及为何利益营销比特性罗列在神经学与心理机制上强大得多时，考夫曼解释，这根植于人类在做出购买决定前的“心理模拟”（Mental Simulation）机制。消费者在付钱之前，大脑会自动构想选择这条路径后的未来生活模样：“如果我买了这辆车、订购了这项服务、办了这家健身房的会员，我的生活会变成怎样？”以买车为例，在真正掏钱之前，试驾过程会让大脑飞速运转并进行外推预测：“如果我每天开着它会怎样？把它停在家门口的车道上时，邻居们会投来羡慕的目光吗？他们会不会觉得我很酷？” 大脑仅需一点点感官线索，就会自动向未来推演并预测情景。这正是故事化叙事（Storytelling）在营销与销售中无往不利的神经学根源：故事能直接激活大脑负责情景预测的神经回路，让人提前感受到美好未来的模样，从而产生兴奋感与期待。考夫曼指出，在汽车销售领域有一条铁律：“第一原则就是尽快让潜在买家坐进驾驶座，其他一切废话都不重要。”销售员必须让他们在最短时间内进入握住方向盘、展开联想的模拟状态，因为正是这种身临其境的想象，会让客户在脑海中完成自我说服。所有高明的营销手段，都在想方设法激发消费者的这种预测与模拟本能。 --- ### [01:10:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4216s) 商业核心要素与去官僚化管理 在提炼企业成功的终极内核与底层游戏规则时，考夫曼再次回归商业的五大核心组成部分，并指出团队建设的关键不在于盲目堆砌高智商人才，而在于招募具备四种特质的员工： - 充满好奇心（Curious） - 积极投入（Engaged） - 卓越的沟通能力（Excellent communicators） - 深度认同并愿为公司的长期愿景与使命全情投入（Signing up for the mission/vision） 团队成员必须清晰知晓企业在做什么、为什么重要、究竟在为谁服务以及如何去落地。考夫曼强调，理想状态下，每位员工即使专注于五大板块中的某一项，也应当透彻理解全部五个部分是如何相互咬合的——例如，市场端做出的细微改动，很可能会对后端的价值交付与客服体验产生颠覆性影响。 在组织架构上，创业者需要思考的核心问题是：企业究竟需要多大规模，才能以长期可持续的方式最大化服务客户？考夫曼认为，卓越管理的本质不是建立层层汇报的官僚机构或制造无休止的文书杂务，而是“为执行专业工作的人铲除障碍”（Removing barriers to people who are doing skilled work）。管理者应尽可能剔除员工肩上的繁文缛节，让他们心无旁骛地聚焦在创造核心价值的板块上。考夫曼特别引用了西南航空（Southwest Airlines）传奇创始人赫伯·凯莱赫（Herb Kelleher）的名言：“因态度而录用，为技能而培训”（Hire for attitude, train for skill）。 --- ### [01:13:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4386s) 招聘的重要性因业务模式而异 针对“招聘在打造伟大企业中究竟有多重要”这一焦点问题，考夫曼给出了务实的分析：招聘的重要性并不是绝对定死的，它完全取决于企业所交付的产品形态与业务逻辑。 以开蜡烛公司为例，如果该模式是通过互联网直接面向消费者（DTC）售卖，依靠小型仓储分销中心和线上数字广告驱动，那么该业务所需的团队规模本身就会极其精炼小巧。在这种轻量化的运营模式下，创始人面临的组织与招聘挑战，与那种动辄依赖数百名一线员工、重度依赖面对面服务或复杂供应链的企业有着本质维度的区别。 ### [01:14:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4460s) 招聘必须契合游戏规则与“沙发创业者”的竞争迷思 商业运营的规模与性质决定了完全不同的组织需求。销售手工小批量蜡烛与搭建制造流水线、大举开拓分销渠道并向大客户供货是截然不同的两种游戏；经营者必须透彻理解自己所处商业模式的底层逻辑与运转需求，将雇佣人员精准匹配于实际需要，绝不可过度扩张团队。 由此，主持人 Bartlett 联想到许多普通人无法迈出第一步的症结所在：以假设中的蜡烛业务为例，绝大多数人（即那些坐在沙发上空想的点子拥有者，“沙发创业者” / sofapreneurs）之所以放弃行动，往往是因为通过一番浅层的市场调研后发现市场上早已充斥着成千上万卖蜡烛的对手，从而认定“竞争过于激烈，根本无利可图”。针对竞争到底意味着危险还是机遇，Kaufman 给出了彻底反直觉的底层剖析。 ### [01:15:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4530s) 市场的铁律：完全没有竞争对手才是最致命的危险信号 Kaufman 引用了硅谷著名投资人 Marc Andreessen（马克·安德森）在网景时期的名言并将其归纳为“市场的铁律”（The Iron Law of the Market）：“根本不存在的市场，绝不会在乎你有多聪明（Markets that don't exist don't care how smart you are）。” 市场上存在大量卖蜡烛的对手非但不是坏事，反而是极具价值的积极信号——它直接验证了真实需求的存在，证明有规模庞大的消费群体正自愿并有能力为这类产品掏钱。创业者最该警惕的反而是那些“前无古人、世界上从未有人见过”的凭空构想，因为这不仅意味着背负沉重的用户教育与说服成本，更意味着你根本不知道大众愿不愿意为此买单。 Kaufman 以著名发明家 Dean Kamen 开发 Segway（赛格威双轮平衡车）的历史教训为例： - **前期极端造势**：主流媒体与《时代周刊》（Time）曾将其吹捧为“将彻底颠覆未来城市规划的神秘发明”。 - **残酷的市场现实**：产品上市后人们才发现，消费者根本不愿意斥资 1 万美元去购买一个仅仅用来替代步行或自行车的代步工具。 相比之下，成熟市场已经拥有明确痛点与热切需求，只要能像 Liquid Death（用易拉罐装水）那样以一种彻底颠覆常规且极抓眼球的全新方式切入，便蕴含着巨大的商业潜力。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 市场竞争与验证模型 accDescr: 对比拥挤市场与无人尝试的全新概念在需求验证与风险上的根本差异。 subgraph Existing["成熟市场（如：蜡烛、瓶装水）"] A["大量竞品共存"] --> B["需求已被充分验证"] B --> C["具备现成的付费意愿群体"] C --> D["采用颠覆性视角切入<br/>（如 Liquid Death 模式）"] end subgraph Unproven["空白市场（如：早期 Segway）"] E["完全无前人涉足"] --> F["面临极高用户教育成本"] F --> G["无法验证是否有人愿买单"] G --> H["极易陷入高风险盲区"] end ``` ### [01:17:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4665s) 如何对待竞争对手：免费的市场调研金矿 面对现存的竞争对手，盲目的敌视、攻击或屏蔽都是极其愚蠢的策略。最具成效的做法是“先向对手学习，成为他们的顾客”： - **亲自体验全流程**：创业者应该买下对手的产品，深入研究其交付体验、服务流程与产品品质。 - **拆解商业细节**：以做蜡烛为例，买回市面上所有的蜡烛点燃它、嗅闻它、堆满书架；仔细观察对手的标签排版、解构其包装结构、记录定价区间、梳理其销售渠道并追踪他们的线上广告投放轨迹。 - **零成本洞察**：除了消耗少许时间和微量预算，市面上所有的竞品都在为你提供免费且详尽的商业研究范本。 将对手展现出的共性认知，与自身同终端顾客面对面的直接沟通以及个人见解相融合，最终形成专属于自己品牌的独特调性（twist）与差异化风格。 ### [01:19:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4770s) 创业中的“算账”逻辑：从 2000 美元本金谈起 在完成了市场调研、营销设计与销售框架搭建之后，业务落地必须回归到核心命脉——财务与资金管理（dollars and cents）。产品研发、打样制造、客户服务都需要消耗真金白银。初创企业通常设立了一个预估价格，并开始尝试收集预售订单来探测现金流入的潜力。 财务分析本质上是一套围绕“资金边界”进行决策与权衡（trade-offs）的系统化工具： - **资本存量与跑道（Runway）**：无论资金来自早期亲友借款、个人信用卡还是投资人，必须时刻明确手头掌控的可支配现金，以及在收入超越支出前业务还能支撑几个月。 - **微型预算的资源分配**：假设创始人一边全职工作，一边用仅有的 2,000 美元储蓄开启副业，财务决策的核心就是极度审慎的资源切分——多少资金分配给物理打样、包装印刷与物流履约，多少资金作为营销与获客的启动弹药。 ### [01:21:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4902s) 克服对数学的恐惧与理查德·布兰森的“捞鱼网”轶事 针对许多人因在校数学不好而恐惧商业财务的现象，Bartlett 分享了一则他在现实创业圈和《龙穴之创业投资》（Dragons' Den）节目中的普遍观察，并提到了他与维珍集团（Virgin Group）创始人 Richard Branson（理查德·布兰森）的一段趣事： - 布兰森曾坦言自己对财务并不敏感，甚至到了 50 多岁执掌全欧最大商业集团之一时，还在高管会议上搞不清什么是“净利润”（net profit）。 - 当时一位董事不得不把布兰森拉出会议室，在纸上画了一片大海并画了一张渔网，告诉他：“网里的鱼，就是你的净利润。”布兰森认为经营商业归根结底只需盯紧三个核心数字。 Kaufman 明确指出，商业世界里的财务分析绝非高深的高等数学，大部分只是常识和基础的四则运算（加减乘除）： $$\text{利润} = \text{销售价格} - (\text{制造成本} + \text{营销成本} + \text{履约交付成本})$$ 无论是在线业务中每月的建站工具费、购物车插件和信用卡手续费，还是线下实体中的员工薪酬、办公室租金与水电杂费，亦或是摊销（amortization）——即将大额资本支出折算并分摊为每月的等额预算成本，这些概念的底层逻辑都是极其平实直接的。这也正是 Kaufman 创作《个人 MBA》（The Personal MBA）的初心：剥离令人望而生畏的学术黑话，用最通俗直白的日常语言把复杂的商业财务机理解构给每一个普通人。 ### [01:24:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5057s) 早期创业必须关注的核心财务指标 当史蒂芬向乔什请教，在经营蜡烛生意时是否存在一个或一组最关键的财务指标时，乔什明确指出，初创期企业的核心命题只有一个：“我们能否让这门生意维持下去？能不能保住最基本的运营，让它继续活下去？以及这对我个人而言到底值不值得？” 对于早期创业者而言，日常开销和现代生活的绝大部分支出都是以月为周期的（如房租、水电账单等）。因此，首要任务是摸清自己的**每月固定开支（Monthly Fixed Overhead）**。从工作室的清洁费、水电费，到哪怕仅仅一个 Google Workspace 邮箱账户的订阅费，所有维持运营运转所必需的支出都算在内。创业者必须准确掌握三个数字：每月总支出、每月的销售额与服务交付总成本，以及最终的**净利润（Net Profit）**——即最后究竟有多少钱能真正落入自己的口袋。 乔什提醒创业者，必须将财务结果与个人生活期望相挂钩。如果你为了维持这间蜡烛小店，每周拼死拼活工作 80 个小时，而月底结余下来只剩 5 美元，这种状态或许可以硬撑一个月，但绝不可能长久维持。“在账面上我们可能确实盈利了，但这笔钱根本不足以维系生活。”初创期的关键，在于先算清支撑你个人生活方式与梦想的“最低可行利润指标”，将全部精力聚焦在达成这个让生意能够长期存续的数字上，一旦越过生存线，你才会拥有更多进退自如的选择权。 - **每月固定管理费用（Fixed Overhead）**：维持基础运转的一切开销，包含场地租金、清洁、软件订阅（如 Gmail）及行政杂项。 - **交付成本（Delivery Costs）**：生产蜡烛、原料采购及配送交付过程中产生的所有直接支出。 - **可持续生存底线**：净利润必须足以匹配创业者的精力投入与基本生活成本，否则“纸面盈利”仍然会导致项目枯竭夭折。 --- ### [01:26:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5195s) 实验精神：放下“无所不知”的执念 史蒂芬提到两人共同推崇的一个心智模型——实验思维（Experimentation）。史蒂芬坦言，这是他近几年商业生涯中最深刻的感悟：“提高我的实验频率，就能直接提高我的成功率。”《The Diary Of A CEO》播客之所以能爆发式增长，正是源于团队不断尝试各种新的实验。观察全球最顶尖的创业者，大家最终都会达成共识：在一个答案快速更迭的世界里，实验才是找到正确路径的唯一方式。 乔什深入剖析了实验对创业者心理的解放作用。在传统观念中，人们常常误将“过度自信与确定感”等同于“专业能力”，认为优秀的管理者必须时刻洞悉一切。而实验精神彻底卸下了这种“每时每刻都必须知道该做什么”的沉重心理包袱。人类本质上都是“不完美的预言家”（Imperfect Oracles），我们大脑的全部机能，就是调动过往的有限知识、经验以及环境信息来预测未来，这虽然能帮助我们避开一些显而易见的愚蠢错误，但无法预测未知的领域。 当面对从未涉足的全新选择时，最诚实、最健康的答案永远不是装作胸有成竹，而是坦率承认：“**我不知道，咱们去试试看就知道了（I don't know, let's find out）**。”尽管我们可以通过头脑推演方案 A、B、C 的可能结果来进行对比评估，但推演的边界永远受制于你现有的认知，它根本无法提供你在“做出选择并从中学习”时才能获取的崭新洞见。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 实验思维与传统决策的对比路径 accDescr: 对比传统过度自信决策与实验探索决策的心态和行动差异 subgraph TRAD["传统模式：追求确定性"] T1["自认必须无所不知"] --> T2["依赖过往经验空想推演"] T2 --> T3["将过度自信误认为专业能力"] T3 --> T4["害怕未知的决策失误"] end subgraph EXP["实验模式：科学探索"] E1["承认认知局限：'我不知道'"] --> E2["低成本小步测试：'去试试看'"] E2 --> E3["在行动中捕获全新数据"] E3 --> E4["动态调整以实现高概率成功"] end ``` --- ### [01:29:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5378s) “探索与利用”权衡：来自老虎机的决策心智模型 乔什分享了一个源自计算机科学与博弈决策理论的经典模型——**“探索与利用权衡”（Explore/Exploit Trade-off）**。该模型最初来源于对赌博行为的研究，即著名的多臂老虎机问题。 乔什生动地打了个比方：想象你走进一家赌场，面前并排摆放着 100 台可以免费投币的老虎机。每台机器的吐钱概率与返奖率各不相同，但没有任何指示牌。你的目标是找出回报率最高的那台机器，你该怎么做？唯一的办法就是先全部拉一遍。 这一机制清晰地划分为两个阶段： 1. **探索阶段（Exploration Phase）**：在刚进入房间、掌握信息为零时，你必须广撒网，逐一测试不同的老虎机并记录反馈。随着拉动次数的增多，你收集到的数据越来越丰富，规律与模式逐渐浮现，你能明显看出哪些机器概率极低，哪些机器表现优异。 2. **利用阶段（Exploitation Phase）**：当你积累了足够的经验与样本后，决策重心发生转移。你开始将绝大部分筹码和时间，集中投入到目前已知回报最高的老虎机上，从而实现收益最大化。 最关键的原则在于：**探索永远不应该彻底停止，它只是随着阶段成熟而在总精力分配中占比收缩**。即便是最理性的策略，也必须始终保留一定比例的时间用于试水新领域。早期职业生涯和初创企业起步完全契合这一模型：前期需要尽可能多地测试完全不同的路径，以此积累关于“什么有效、什么无效”的第一手情报。 --- ### [01:31:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5517s) 没有反馈的尝试毫无意义：蜡烛测试与暗室盲测 史蒂芬针对实验给出了极其犀利的补充洞察：许多人在听完“大胆尝试”的建议后，回公司就盲目开展各种新花样，但这完全是在浪费时间，因为他们忽略了最重要的环节——**精准收集反馈**。“**没有反馈的失败毫无价值（Failure is nothing without feedback）**。”尝试新事物的唯一价值，在于严谨、密切地关注测试后发生的真实反馈。 乔什以蜡烛业务为例进行了拆解。如果你刚起步，可以先小批量制作 10 种不同香型的蜡烛，通过定量与定性调研来挖掘信息： - **定量层面**：观察真实的销售转化，哪款香型有人买？消费者的第一眼吸引力集中在哪里？通常 10 种香型中会很快跑出两三个明显占优的爆款。 - **定性层面**：直接对购买用户进行回访追问，深入探究他们喜欢什么、讨厌什么；蜡烛点燃前闻起来怎么样？点燃后散发的香气又如何？系统化、有针对性的追踪才是信息金矿的来源。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 蜡烛新产品盲测验证流程 accDescr: 从剥离视觉变量到全黑暗室测试冷香与燃烧香气的验证闭环 subgraph PREP["变量控制与准备"] P1["调配 10 种实验香型"] --> P2["贴纯白标签去除品牌暗示"] end subgraph BLIND["感官剥夺测试（暗室）"] P2 --> B1["招募 100 名街头受试者"] B1 --> B2["全黑暗室屏蔽视觉色彩干扰"] B2 --> B3["测试未点燃状态评分（冷香）"] B3 --> B4["测试点燃状态评分（热香）"] end subgraph ACTION["数据反哺决策"] B4 --> D1["汇总打分筛选前 20% 爆款"] D1 --> D2["进入规模化量产阶段"] end ``` 谈及能否在正式投产售卖前就完成验证，史蒂芬分享了他投资的代餐品牌 Huel 的极限制品测试法。为了彻底排除视觉颜色的心理干扰、控制单变量，Huel 在总部专门设立了完全无光的“全黑感官剥夺室”（Pitch Black Sensory Deprivation Rooms），邀请测试者在伸手不见五指的环境下纯靠味觉体验产品。 史蒂芬建议，蜡烛完全可以复刻这种严格的盲测机制：撕掉所有品牌标签，将 10 款蜡烛置于全黑房间中，从街头招募 10 人乃至 100 位互不相识的陌生人进入暗室闻香打分。不仅测试静态下的香气，还要记录蜡烛点燃后的实际嗅觉反馈。通过在开模和大规模量产前剥离一切视觉修饰，创业者能在零销售状态下直接捕获最纯粹的感官核心数据。 ### [01:34:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5695s) 高尔定律：为什么复杂度绝不等于价值 在谈到小步测试与控制风险时，乔什·考夫曼（Josh Kaufman）提到了他在书中引用的系统设计核心原则——“高尔定律”（Gall's Law）。高尔定律的核心逻辑十分直观：任何行之有效的复杂系统，无一例外都是从一个能够正常运转的简单系统演化而来的。反之，如果直接从头设计一个全新的复杂系统，它几乎注定无法运转，也无法通过修修补补让它起死回生。因此，若想构建一个成功的复杂系统，最稳妥也是唯一切实可行的途径，就是先构建一个能够运作的简易系统，然后再逐步迭代扩充。 以之前讨论的蜡烛生意为例，初创时不应直接去幻想搭建一套跨国全球分销网络，而是必须先有一个最小化、能走通的极简版蜡烛业务。现实中许多创业者把“复杂度”当成一种奇特的身份地位象征（status signal），仿佛把事情搞得越复杂，自己就显得越精明、越高端。但考夫曼指出，真正高明的做法恰恰是克制冲动、故意保持简单，让每一个新增加的复杂功能都必须证明自身的价值，以抵消其带来的直接成本、注意力消耗与机会成本。 斯蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）对此深表赞同，并指出人们常常误以为在产品上叠加的功能越多，消费者感受到的价值就越高。斯蒂芬拿自己投资并代言的健康穿戴手环 Whoop 举例：很多人曾问创始人为什么不在手环上加一个简单的屏幕来显示时间。创始人回答，一旦加上看时间的功能，整个产品的“心理框架”（frame）就被彻底改变了——它立刻从一款纯粹的生理监测设备变成了“手表”，而用户一旦将其视作手表，就会产生诸如时尚外观、表盘设计等全套全新的严苛预期。“多并不等于好”，盲目给蜡烛加上霓虹灯、金属盖甚至手机充电功能，不仅不会让它更有价值，反而会毁掉整个产品。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 高尔定律的核心演化逻辑 accDescr: 展示从简单系统演化到复杂系统的正确路径，与从头构建复杂系统的失败路径对比 subgraph CorrectPath ["正确的演化路径 (高尔定律)"] direction TB A["简单可行的系统"] --> B["验证有效并精简"] B --> C["按需逐步增加复杂度"] C --> D["成功运转的复杂系统"] end subgraph FailurePath ["常见的错误路径"] direction TB E["直接设计复杂系统"] --> F["功能过度堆砌 / 框架混乱"] F --> G["系统崩溃或无法推向市场"] end ``` - **高尔定律精髓**：任何能运转的复杂系统，必然是从运转良好的简单系统演化而来的；从头设计的复杂系统永远无法正常工作。 - **复杂度的代价**：每一次功能的增加都会消耗直接研发成本、用户注意力与机会成本，额外复杂度必须凭其实际价值“争取自己的存在席位”。 - **改变产品认知框架的风险**：如同 Whoop 手环不加时钟显示一样，增加看似微小的功能可能彻底打破用户的产品定位预期。 --- ### [01:37:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5865s) 保持极简与现代工具的创业红利 考夫曼进一步用商业案例阐释了保持极简的重要性：如果有人想做空间香氛生意，明智的做法是先从做一根蜡烛起步，而不是一开始就去研发一套直接接入整座大楼 HVAC（暖通空调）系统的复杂机械喷雾装置。只有当业务顺畅跑通、并且客户反馈明确提出了这方面的需求时，顺势扩展才有意义。 斯蒂芬借此引出，如今创业的启动门槛相比过去已经大幅降低。在以往，验证一个商业想法往往伴随着极高的技术与搭建门槛；而依托现代电商基础设施平台（如节目赞助商 Shopify），任何人都可以以极轻量的方式在几分钟内启动全球销售。斯蒂芬分享说，自己团队销售的深度对话卡牌（Conversation Cards）便是通过这种极其简便的方式推向全球的。 - **起步原则**：做香氛从一根蜡烛做起，不要一开始就做整楼级 HVAC 机械雾化系统。 - **降低试错成本**：利用现成平台（如 Shopify 结账系统相较其他平台转化率提升可达 36%）能够将精力完全聚焦在验证核心价值上，避免过早陷入复杂的自建技术系统。 --- ### [01:39:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5947s) 《关键 20 小时》与打破“一万小时定律”的误区 斯蒂芬将话题转向考夫曼的另一部代表作《关键 20 小时》（*The First 20 Hours: How to Learn Anything*），并提到考夫曼围绕该书所做的 TED 演讲获得了近 4000 万次播放，成为史上观看量最高的演讲之一。考夫曼解释道，这个话题之所以能够引发全球广泛共鸣，是因为现代人普遍生活节奏紧张，人人都渴望学习新技能（无论是工作所需、实用工具还是纯粹为了娱乐），但大家最匮乏的资源就是时间和精力。 在撰写《个人 MBA》时，考夫曼深入研究了认知心理学文献，发现了一个令人振奋的规律：在学习任何新技能的最初几个小时里，单位时间和精力投入所换来的能力提升速率是最高的。也就是在技能习得的最早期，学习曲线的边际回报处于绝对顶峰。这促使他进一步探索：我们能否通过高度自觉、科学拆解的方式，充分吃透这一黄金窗口期？研究表明，从对某一领域“一无所知”到达到“相当不错、拿得出手”（reasonably good）的水平，实际上只需要大约 20 小时高度专注的刻意练习——拆算下来，大约是连续一个月每天练习 40 分钟。 面对市场上广为流传的“一万小时定律”，考夫曼明确指出大众对安德斯·埃里克森（K. Anders Ericsson）的研究存在普遍误读。一万小时的原始研究针对的是极高竞争维度下的“顶级精通”（Mastery），例如管弦乐团的第一小提琴手或顶尖运动员。聚光灯往往聚焦在那些金字塔尖的大师身上，但现实中绝大多数普通人在一生中遇到的大多数场景，并不是要在某个领域击败全世界，而只是为了快速搞懂一项全新的技能（例如学会剪辑、入门一门语言或学会打碟）。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 学习曲线与时间投入收益对比 accDescr: 展示技能水平随时间投入的非线性变化，突出前20小时与一万小时的本质区别 subgraph FastTrack ["前 20 小时 (快速技能习得)"] direction TB P1["零基础"] --> P2["每天 40 分钟 × 30 天"] P2 --> P3["水平：达到相当不错、胜任该技能"] P3 --> P4["收益：极高的时间回报率"] end subgraph MasteryTrack ["10,000 小时 (极限精通)"] direction TB M1["专业门槛"] --> M2["数年如一日的高压刻意练习"] M2 --> M3["水平：行业前 1% 顶尖大师"] M3 --> M4["收益：边际递减严重，追求极致细节"] end ``` - **最初几小时的回报率最高**：学习新事物时，初期每投入一分钟获得的技能增量远高于后续进阶阶段。 - **20 小时法则**：20 小时高度专注的练习即可跨越从“完全不懂”到“能独立胜任”的鸿沟。 - **一万小时的定位**：针对的是专业竞争中的“极致精通”，而非普通人的“掌握技能”。 --- ### [01:43:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6234s) 快速技能习得第一原则：设定具体可控的小目标 对于想要在 20 小时内学会一门技能（例如从未做过生意的人想要掌握商业基本功）的学习者，考夫曼提出了系统性的实操步骤，其中第一项关键准则就是：**精确定义你究竟想要达成什么结果**。 大多数人在刚开始学习一项新技能时，最大的痛点在于把目标定得过大、过空、过急。例如一个人想要学做 DJ，如果把初始目标定为“去一个疯狂的万人大型音乐节做整场 DJ 表演”，这种目标会让人产生极强的挫败感并无从下手。相反，一个具体、实在、触手可及的目标才是正确的切入点。斯蒂芬深有体会地补充说，当他自己开始学 DJ 时，给自己的初级目标仅仅是“把这一首歌自然流畅地混进下一首歌里，听起来不难听（without it sounding shit）”。考夫曼肯定道，这正是最完美的起点，因为目标极其具象，大脑能清楚地评估成功与失败的标准，从而能够在此基础上快速展开后续的刻意训练。 - **初学者通病**：目标过于庞大宏观（“way too big, way too much, way too soon”）。 - **第一法则**：将目标压缩为一个清晰、具象、可衡量的最小成果（例如“顺畅拼接两首歌”而不是“当音乐节主打 DJ”）。 ### [01:45:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6325s) 技能拆解：将宏大目标分解为底层子技能 技能习得的第一道坎在于目标设定。许多人在起步时之所以失败，是因为他们的目标过于宽泛、模糊，根本无法落地。成年人在学习一项新技能时，如果已经具备一定的品味、背景和判断力（比如听过很多音乐、能分辨好坏），首先需要做的就是确定一个具体、明确的初期目标。 任何一项看似单一的复杂技能，本质上都是一系列紧密交织的子技能集合。以打碟（DJ）为例，史蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）分享了自己的亲身经历：他原本以为第一节课就能直接上手操作打碟机控制台（decks），结果第一个小时整整都在学习音乐基础理论——什么是节奏与BPM（Beats Per Minute 每分钟节拍数）、歌曲调性（Key，如 A、B、C 调）、八小节结构（8-bar）以及音乐如何听起来悦耳。史蒂芬笑着自嘲说 DJ 圈的朋友可能会在 WhatsApp 群里嘲笑他连这些基本概念都说得结结巴巴，但事实就是如此：在触碰硬件、将两首歌混在一起之前，必须先掌握声学与音乐原理。 乔希·考夫曼（Josh Kaufman）高度赞赏了这个案例，指出这正是“技能拆解”（Deconstruction）的教科书级典范。优秀导师的最大价值，就在于能帮助学习者把一项复杂技能精准拆解成各个细分构件。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 复杂技能拆解流程图 accDescr: 展示从宏观复杂技能拆解为具体子技能，并确定优先级进行专注练习的过程。 subgraph Macro["宏观技能目标"] A["复杂复合技能（如：DJ 打碟）"] end subgraph Deconstruction["子技能拆解 (Deconstruction)"] B["音乐理论：BPM 与调性"] C["音乐结构：八小节与过渡"] D["硬件操作：控制台与双轨重叠"] E["高级软件与插件"] end subgraph Prioritization["优先级排序与刻意练习"] F["第一阶段：攻克核心基础（BPM、调性）"] G["第二阶段：硬件操作与专注刻意练习"] end A --> B A --> C A --> D A --> E B --> F C --> F D --> G E -.->|延后学习| G ``` ### [01:48:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6511s) 成年人的战略优势与“调研陷阱” 拆解完成后，紧接着需要进行研究和优先级排序：找出哪些子技能最为关键、哪些可以延后。虽然多数人缺乏耐心、渴望立刻上手把玩设备，但克制住即时满足的冲动，正是成年学习者的战略优势所在。成年人懂得集中精力在杠杆率最高、回报最丰厚的核心拐点上，从而在极短时间内实现跨越式进步。 然而，研究阶段往往暗藏着一个巨大的陷阱——“调研型拖延”（Research Procrastination）。考夫曼坦言自己就经常在此处受阻，因为查阅资料本身很有趣，极易让人深陷其中。史蒂芬提到作家内尔·埃亚尔（Nir Eyal）的观点：人类本质上是“规避不适”的生物。所有的拖延归根结底都是在逃避某种心理不适。史蒂芬提到一位身边的密友计划做一个线上项目长达两年，期间做了海量调研却迟迟不动手，原因正是因为在某些关键环节上缺乏胜任感，从而用无休止的“做研究”来逃避实际行动。考夫曼强调，**技能是在专注的刻意练习中建立的，绝不是在调研中形成的**；调研只需做到“足以提供基本上下文、理解好坏标准”即可，必须尽快刹车并投入行动。 - 调研的核心目的是构建认知坐标，而非替代实践；过量调研往往是逃避无能感的心理防线。 - 抓住技能的“拐点”（Inflection Points），优先攻克影响最大的核心子模块，往往能用最少的时间换取最大的技术跃升。 ### [01:50:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6652s) 挫败感壁垒与成人学习的心魔 成年人学习新事物面临的最大阻碍并非智力，而是情绪困扰：我们极度害怕显得愚蠢、害怕事情超出掌控、害怕在他人面前丢脸。考夫曼援引了一项关于人类一生中艺术才能与倾向变化的研究： - 当你询问低年级小朋友“你是不是艺术家？”时，几乎所有孩子都会骄傲地回答：“是的，我画画，我创作艺术！” - 但到了初中（Junior High）阶段，绝大多数孩子开始退缩，回答“不，我不是艺术家”。 随着心智成熟，人会产生强烈的自我意识（Self-consciousness），清楚意识到“自己想达到的水准”与“自己实际能做出的东西”之间存在着巨大的鸿沟。这种自惭形秽的心理与攀比机制，成了扼杀行动的元凶： 1. **与顶尖大师对比**：在刚学第 1 到 3 个小时时就拿自己和大师（如初学高尔夫便对比老虎·伍兹 Tiger Woods）对比，毫无意义且极具破坏性。 2. **与同侪对比及自我归咎**：更折磨人的往往是身边的初学者——看到同样没打过几次球的人一杆打得又直又漂亮，内心便会陷入“为什么我这么笨？这不该这么难啊”的自我谴责恶性循环。 考夫曼在其著作《最初的20小时》（*The First 20 Hours*）中将这一现象定义为**“挫败感壁垒”（The Frustration Barrier）**。在学习一项全新技能的**前 1 到 10 个小时**，学习者在情绪上是极其痛苦的。此时大脑所有的自我防卫与自卑回路被全线激活，面对陌生的术语和混乱的局面，绝大多数人都在这个阶段选择放弃。因此，突破初级阶段的本质是一场“情绪管理战”。 ### [01:54:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6859s) 行为心理学破局：20小时预先承诺与“可爱项目” 为了击碎挫败感壁垒并逼迫自己从“调研模式”切换到“实操模式”，考夫曼提出了核心解决方案——**预先承诺（Pre-commitment）**。这是行为心理学中极其有效的工具：当人们向自己、特别是公开向他人承诺在特定时间段内完成某项具体行为时，实际履行的概率会大幅提升。 考夫曼提倡在接触新技能时做出铁律般的承诺：无论过程多么别扭、无论自己表现得多差劲、甚至无论自己之后还会不会继续这项爱好，都**必须雷打不动地投入至少 20 个小时**进行纯粹的实操与探索。这 20 个小时是对自我的心理松绑：允许自己在前 10 个小时里极度狼狈，只要撑过这道关口，就能见证能力的爆发式成长。 史蒂芬随即点出这一方法论的核心前提——你必须发自内心地觉得“这件事情对我足够重要”。这正好对应了考夫曼“快速技能习得十大法则”的第一条：**选择一个你真心喜爱的项目（Choosing a lovable project）**。现代人的时间与精力都极其稀缺，如果选择的技能无法激发你内心的热爱与渴望，就不可能产生熬过前 10 个小时残酷情绪折磨的动力。 ### [01:55:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6948s) 20小时前期承诺与消除练习阻力 在开启任何学习计划之前，人的精力和注意力都是极其有限的，无法包揽所有看似好玩或有趣的事情。因此，必须确立一个最低门槛：这件事必须足够重要，以至于你愿意在生活的其他方面做出权衡取舍——无论是放弃看一部电影，还是克制自己在社交媒体上消磨时间。乔希·考夫曼（Josh Kaufman）总结道，如果在开始前你甚至不愿意做出“至少投入20小时”的前期承诺（pre-commitment），那就明确说明这件事在现阶段对你来说根本没那么重要，最初就不该投入时间和精力。 主持人史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）随后回顾了快速习得技能的十项核心原则： 1. 选择一个令你心动、真正热爱的项目（Choose a lovable project）； 2. 一次只将精力集中在一项技能上（Focus your energy on one skill at a time）； 3. 明确界定目标水平（Define your target performance level）； 4. 将技能解构为子技能（Deconstruct the skill into subskills）； 5. 获取关键工具（Obtain critical tools）。 针对“获取关键工具”，考夫曼解释说这其实属于“消除练习阻力”（removing barriers to practice）的一部分。他举了一个极其普遍的经典反例：世界上有无数人想学吉他，但他们往往买来吉他后放进琴盒，再塞进楼上偏僻的壁橱里。这种做法制造了极高的认知负荷与行动阻力——每次练习都需要回忆吉他在哪、走上楼梯、翻出琴盒并打开调音。最聪明的做法是把阻力彻底降为零：买一个小吉他架，直接摆在客厅椅子或沙发旁边视线所及之处。想练琴时只需顺手抓过来就能开始弹奏，这种无摩擦的环境设计极大地提升了坐下来真正投入练习的概率。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 消除练习阻力流程 accDescr: 对比高阻力存放与零阻力存放对开始练习的影响 subgraph HighFriction ["高阻力模式（失败率高）"] A["吉他装入琴盒"] --> B["塞入楼上衣柜深处"] B --> C["高认知消耗：寻找、搬运、拆盒"] C --> D["放弃练习"] end subgraph LowFriction ["零阻力模式（成功率高）"] E["放置在客厅琴架"] --> F["肉眼可见、触手可及"] F --> G["顺手抓起即刻弹奏"] G --> H["轻松达成20小时"] end ``` --- ### [01:57:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=7066s) 重视数量与速度：快速建立共性直觉 关于十原则中的最后一项——“强调数量与速度”（emphasize quantity and speed），考夫曼指出，初学者在早期往往有一种致命倾向：过早追求把一件事情做到完美，而实际上“做大量不完美的练习”要有用得多。他以主持人的 DJ 练习为例：一口气连续混接大量不同的歌曲，比死磕“歌曲 A 到歌曲 B”直到天衣无缝能学到多得多的东西。 在多元场景中的快速探索和大量尝试，能让人深刻感知这项技能在不同条件下的实际表现与手感，而过度聚焦于单一任务的完美只会限制认知。回到弹吉他的例子，初学者应该找来各种吉他谱，一口气弹奏大量不同的歌曲，哪怕弹得不那么熟练也无所谓。因为正是不同经验之间的“交集与共性”，才能帮你提炼出这项技能真正的基石： - 什么是和弦结构？ - 和弦之间如何流畅切换？ - 如何在不同风格中捕捉节拍与节奏（Tempo）？ 这些核心底层能力在所有音乐曲目中是通用的。在早期练习中优先覆盖海量多样性，才能让这些通用基础扎根，从而极大地优化初期学习曲线。 --- ### [01:59:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=7169s) 探索预算：乔布斯书法课与跨界灵感 当被问及在学习与《最初的20小时》领域还有什么最关键的心法需要补充时，考夫曼将其与先前提到的“探索预算”（exploration budget）联系起来：应该把更多的时间花在做那些“古怪而酷炫”的事情上。探索的领域越偏远、越荒诞，你反而越容易在看似毫不相关的领域之间发现惊人的共性与创新连接。 正如早先谈到苹果公司时提到的案例：苹果计算机操作系统最核心的图形界面与排版灵感，竟源于史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）当年在大学里偶然旁听的一门书法课（calligraphy class）。从表面上看，这两者风马牛不相及，但将生活某一部分的独特美感移植到完全不同的计算语境中，最终为数百万人释放了前所未有的价值。考夫曼建议每个人都应该退后一步，列一张包含所有心仪技能或体验的清单，不要做任何预先审查与自我阉割（self-editing）；而《最初的20小时》方法论的意义，正是为这份清单上的每一件事提供一个极低门槛、人人可切入的行动脚手架。 巴特利特对此深有共鸣，并提出了一个更激进的见解：“在生活中，其实根本不存在所谓的浪费时间。”哪怕是看似无意义地刷网飞（Netflix）看电影，你也能从中领悟到故事叙事的弧线（story arc），并将其反哺到商业创意或广告策划中。正如乔布斯当年如果只去上计算机编程和软硬件开发课，就绝不可能顿悟出设计、字体与排版对人机交互的决定性价值——最宝贵的技能和灵感，往往天然存在于我们日常工作的行业信息茧房之外。 --- ### [02:02:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=7353s) 终极传统提问：作为与不作为的遗憾 节目进入尾声，主持人拿出了《CEO日记》标志性的终极环节：由上一位未曾谋面的嘉宾为乔希·考夫曼留下的手写信提问。巴特利特打趣道“终于来了一位字迹工整的嘉宾，我念出来不用磕巴了”。这个问题直击灵魂：**“当你回顾人生时，你更后悔做过的事（regret doing），还是后悔没做过的事（regret not doing）？请举例说明。”** 面对这个沉重的提问，考夫曼坦言自己犯下的“作为之过”（mistakes of commission，即做了某事而产生悔恨）要多于“不作为之过”（mistakes of omission）。他的处事哲学是：如果他能预见到自己将来会后悔做某件事，他从一开始就会竭力避免去做；而那些所谓“要是当年换个选择会怎样”的幻想，大部分只是典型的“后视镜偏差”（hindsight bias）。 他的遗憾大多集中在两类具象的事情上： 1. **决策层面的失误**：某些深思熟虑后做出的商业或生活决定，但最终结果并未如预期般奏效。 2. **人际与家庭关系**：考夫曼提到了自己的两个孩子，他认为抚养孩子本质上是一种“充满信息的试错过程”（informed trial and error），但在现实中，很多时候父母必须在电光石火间当场做出判断，你根本无法提前预知这个决定是不是最佳选择。 当被问及通用的决策心理模型时，考夫曼分享了他最核心的决策工具——**情景规划（Scenario Planning）**： - 穷尽列出当前局面下的所有潜在选项； - 尽可能细化每个选项的细节； - 识别并权衡各个选项背后的硬性代价与不可调和的折中（hard trade-offs）； - 基于当前的理解，沙盘推演每个分支路径下可能发生的结果； - 最终选出在当前约束条件下最稳健、最合理的一条路线。 节目在巴特利特的致谢中走向高潮。巴特利特强调，无论是投身创业还是在传统大企业工作，商业底层逻辑对每个人都有巨大价值。社会运转的本质就是商业系统，而考夫曼在《个人MBA》（The Personal MBA）中对商业底层运作逻辑与激励结构的系统拆解，赋予了现代人更多的“人生选择权”（optionality）与认知自由。 ### [02:06:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=7578s) 对《个人MBA》的致谢与终篇赞誉 主持人史蒂文·巴特利特在节目的尾声向乔希·考夫曼表达了由衷的敬意与感谢。他特别强调，《个人MBA》（*The Personal MBA*）真正触达了那些无力承担顶尖名校极其昂贵的 MBA 学费的普通人，为他们赋予了平等的学习机会。更重要的是，这本书所传递的商业洞察与实用理解，丝毫不逊色于任何名牌商学院的系统教育，甚至在很多层面上比名校所能教授的一切“更为重要”。史蒂文盛赞这是一本“非凡的著作”（an exceptional book），并真诚地为乔希写出这样一部作品鼓掌致敬。 面对这番极高的评价，乔希·考夫曼谦逊而真诚地表达了谢意，表示史蒂文的赞扬“非常贴心且令人感激”（"that was very kind to say and I appreciate it"）。访谈在温馨而充满敬意的氛围与片尾音乐中圆满落幕。 - **打破精英教育壁垒**：该书的核心价值在于填补了高门槛商业教育与大众自学之间的鸿沟，为无法支付巨额学费的创业者与职场人提供了扎实、平等的商业认知底座。 - **超越名校课程的实用性**：史蒂文在总结中高度肯定该书的含金量，认为其对商业底层逻辑的提炼与实践指导，其重要程度完全不亚于甚至超越了顶尖商学院昂贵课程所带来的收获。 ## Notable quotes > [13:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=785s) 如果你本身足够优秀能考进商学院，那么无论去不去，你都能取得成功。 — Jeffrey Pfeffer (引述自 Josh Kaufman) > [21:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=1311s) 这是我在《龙穴》上听到最普遍的一句话——‘我有个点子，我朋友和我妈妈都说太棒了，他们肯定会买！’每当听到这个，我心里的想法就是：这他妈一点意义都没有（means fucking nothing）。 — Steven Bartlett > [36:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2160s) 给我看一张为了解决这个问题而刷过的信用卡，我就承认这个痛点是真实存在的。 — Des Traynor (引述自 Josh Kaufman) > [40:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=2449s) 如果你从根本上没有为他人提供价值，你根本就不配拥有任何生意。 — Josh Kaufman > [56:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=3379s) 我们必须激怒那 80% 的人，才能赢得那核心的 20%。品牌不可能让所有人喜欢，那不叫品牌；真正的品牌必须让人产生强烈的情绪反应。 — Jane Wurwand (引述自 Steven Bartlett) > [01:10:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4216s) 因态度而录用，为技能而培训（Hire for attitude, train for skill）。 — Herb Kelleher (引述自 Josh Kaufman) > [01:15:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=4530s) 根本不存在的市场，绝不会在乎你有多聪明（Markets that don't exist don't care how smart you are）。 — Marc Andreessen (引述自 Josh Kaufman) > [01:26:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5195s) 提高我的实验频率，就能直接提高我的成功率。 — Steven Bartlett > [01:26:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5195s) 我不知道，咱们去试试看就知道了（I don't know, let's find out）。 — Josh Kaufman > [01:31:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=5517s) 没有反馈的失败毫无价值（Failure is nothing without feedback）。 — Steven Bartlett > [01:48:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU&t=6511s) 技能是在专注的刻意练习中建立的，绝不是在调研中形成的。 — Josh Kaufman ## Mentioned Josh Kaufman, Steven Bartlett, The Personal MBA (个人MBA), The First 20 Hours (关键20小时), How to Fight a Hydra, The Diary Of A CEO, Jeffrey Pfeffer, Christina Fong, Procter & Gamble (宝洁 / P&G), Dragons' Den (龙穴之创业投资), Shark Tank (创智赢家), Kickstarter, Shure SM7B, Rycote, Intercom, Des Traynor, Nitin Nohria, Paul Lawrence, Driven: How Human Nature Shapes Our Choices, Nike (耐克), Apple (苹果), iPod, Apple Vision Pro, Liquid Death (死亡之水), Perfect Ted, BrewDog, Carling, Dermalogica, Jane Wurwand, Southwest Airlines (西南航空), Herb Kelleher, Marc Andreessen, Dean Kamen, Segway (赛格威), Richard Branson (理查德·布兰森), Virgin Group (维珍集团), Huel, Gall's Law (高尔定律), Whoop, Shopify, Conversation Cards, K. Anders Ericsson (安德斯·埃里克森), Nir Eyal, Tiger Woods (老虎·伍兹), Steve Jobs (史蒂夫·乔布斯) ## Video description This episode will teach you everything you would learn in a business degree, saving you $200,000 and 10,000 hours Josh Kaufman is a renowned business expert and the author of the international best-selling book, ‘The Personal MBA’ which has sold over 900,000 copies worldwide. He is also the author of books such as, ‘The First 20 Hours’, and ‘How to Fight a Hydra’. 00:00 Intro 02:00 Why Did You Write The Personal MBA 04:32 What Is An MBA? 10:30 Should You Do A MBA? 14:19 How Difficult Is Starting And Running A Business? 16:57 First Steps To Setting Up A Business 19:29 Loads Of Business Are Finding Problems To Solve 27:49 How To Give Value To The End Consumer 35:47 How Do You Find Out If Your Idea Is Good? 39:11 This Is The Wrong Approach When Starting A Business 40:49 Why Should You Start With Value? 42:35 How To Market 44:04 Psychology & Marketing 46:06 Creating A Drive In The Marketing Strategy 48:23 Think Different 50:52 Be Brave To Do Something Completely Different 58:39 How To Become A Good Marketer 01:00:31 The Sales Piece In Any Business 01:04:38 Customer Service Matters 01:06:09 The Sales Framework 01:13:06 How Important Is Hiring? 01:14:50 What Role Does Competition Play? 01:19:09 Let's Talk Money 01:24:17 What Numbers Should I Pay Attention To? 01:26:35 Experimenting 01:34:55 Every Complex System Starts In A Simple Way 01:39:06 Mastering A Job 01:43:54 Ten Major Principles To Learn Anything 01:55:24 Removing Any Friction In The Process 02:01:38 Last Guest Question Are you ready to think like a CEO? Gain access to the 100 CEOs newsletter here: ⁠https://bit.ly/100-ceos-newsletter You can purchase Josh’s book, ‘How to Fight a Hydra’, here: https://amzn.to/4f1qJa4 Follow Josh: Twitter - https://g2ul0.app.link/SznbYyhi9Kb Follow me: https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb Microphone shock mount sign up link: https://manage.kmail-lists.com/subscriptions/subscribe?a=QSijwy&g=UzaR3h You can purchase the The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards: Second Edition, here: https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb Sponsors: Shopify: http://shopify.com/bartlett [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLmeUIXXtU)

[13:05] Jeffrey Pfeffer (引述自 Josh Kaufman): 如果你本身足够优秀能考进商学院，那么无论去不去，你都能取得成功。 [21:51] Steven Bartlett: 这是我在《龙穴》上听到最普遍的一句话——‘我有个点子，我朋友和我妈妈都说太棒了，他们肯定会买！’每当听到这个，我心里的想法就是：这他妈一点意义都没有（means fucking nothing）。 [36:00] Des Traynor (引述自 Josh Kaufman): 给我看一张为了解决这个问题而刷过的信用卡，我就承认这个痛点是真实存在的。 [40:49] Josh Kaufman: 如果你从根本上没有为他人提供价值，你根本就不配拥有任何生意。 [56:19] Jane Wurwand (引述自 Steven Bartlett): 我们必须激怒那 80% 的人，才能赢得那核心的 20%。品牌不可能让所有人喜欢，那不叫品牌；真正的品牌必须让人产生强烈的情绪反应。 [70:16] Herb Kelleher (引述自 Josh Kaufman): 因态度而录用，为技能而培训（Hire for attitude, train for skill）。 [75:30] Marc Andreessen (引述自 Josh Kaufman): 根本不存在的市场，绝不会在乎你有多聪明（Markets that don't exist don't care how smart you are）。 [86:35] Steven Bartlett: 提高我的实验频率，就能直接提高我的成功率。 [86:35] Josh Kaufman: 我不知道，咱们去试试看就知道了（I don't know, let's find out）。 [91:57] Steven Bartlett: 没有反馈的失败毫无价值（Failure is nothing without feedback）。 [108:31] Josh Kaufman: 技能是在专注的刻意练习中建立的，绝不是在调研中形成的。

[10:30] Jeffrey Pfeffer: If you are good enough to get in, you are good enough to do well regardless. [35:32] Des Traynor: Show me a credit card that has been swiped to solve this problem, and I will concede that the problem is real. [40:49] Josh Kaufman: A venture that markets and sells something that does not deliver value to other people is a scam... A well-running, working business system is a thing of beauty: you're solving people's problems, you're being rewarded for it... and it makes your life better in the process. [53:19] Jane Wurwand: We need to piss off the 80% to get to the 20%. [70:39] Herb Kelleher: Hire for attitude, train for skill. [77:45] Josh Kaufman: Buy from them, become their customer... deconstruct their packaging, look at their price points, where are they selling, how are they doing their online advertising... all that market research is free. [94:55] Josh Kaufman: Every additional bit of complexity needs to serve some sort of purpose to justify its costs—either direct cost or time, attention, opportunity cost. [99:06] Josh Kaufman: Your rate of improvement per unit of time and energy invested at the very beginning of learning something new is extremely high. [110:55] Josh Kaufman: Making a pre-commitment that no matter what, I'm going to spend 20 hours doing this thing... I care about this thing that I want to learn enough that I'm going to invest at least 20 hours of my life figuring out if this works for me. [125:24] Host: Understanding the fundamentals, the levers that are running society, I think is only net positive for everybody... It deconstructs what businesses are and it helps us understand the world around us and the incentive structures of the world around us in a really, really empowering way.

[0:00] so every business from the smallest [0:02] startup to the largest corporation in [0:04] the world has five fundamental Parts if [0:07] you want to create a business or [0:08] interviewing for your first job or [0:10] interviewing for your first big [0:13] promotion understanding this is a [0:15] superpower it's so exciting and fun Josh [0:18] Kaufman the world famous business Expert [0:21] entrepreneur and best-selling author [0:23] Renown for his practical approach to [0:25] mastering business productivity and [0:28] Rapid skill acquisition this is the [0:30] foundation of every business plan that [0:33] has or ever will exist so Step One is [0:36] value creation find those important [0:38] unmet needs and then focus on meeting [0:41] those is this enough of a problem for [0:43] you to pay money to solve it how do you [0:45] find out if there's a big enough market [0:47] for your idea the easiest best thing to [0:49] do is just step two then marketing and [0:51] humans have five drives the drive to [0:54] acquire to bond to learn to feel to [0:57] defend and the more drives that you hook [1:00] into the more attractive the business [1:02] offer is going to be so what is step [1:03] three the third part of every business [1:05] is the fourth part is particularly [1:08] important which is and the fifth part is [1:10] what a lot of people struggle with but [1:12] I'm here to help you so the fifth part [1:14] is Josh The Narrative out in the market [1:17] is you have to do 10,000 hours to learn [1:19] anything you're telling me it's actually [1:20] 20 hours is the key yes or 40 minutes a [1:22] day for about a month so how do I do [1:24] that then the best way to approach this [1:26] is to start with that's the secret [1:31] congratulations Dio gang we've made some [1:33] progress 63% of you that listen to this [1:36] podcast regularly don't subscribe which [1:38] is down from [1:40] 69% our goal is 50% so if you've ever [1:44] liked any of the videos we've posted if [1:46] you like this channel can you do me a [1:48] quick favor and hit the Subscribe button [1:49] it helps this channel more than you know [1:51] and the bigger the channel gets as [1:52] you've seen the bigger the guest get [1:54] thank you and enjoy this episode [1:57] [Music] [2:01] Josh why why why did you write a book [2:05] called the personal MBA it's a world [2:07] class Business book that sold almost a [2:09] million copies so far it's a real iconic [2:11] book in the category but why why did you [2:14] feel compelled to write that book [2:15] because I can tell by the thickness of [2:17] it it took you a long time it did so [2:19] there must have been some sort of [2:20] personal motivation that was pretty [2:23] strong to write that book sure uh a [2:26] couple of things um curiosity [2:30] and persistence and I was solving my own [2:32] problem um so one of the things that [2:36] that happened is right after school I [2:38] got a job at a big company and I was [2:40] working with a lot of people who had [2:42] just graduated from top 15 business [2:45] programs um I got this job straight out [2:47] of undergrad I had no idea what I was [2:49] doing and I really wanted to learn like [2:54] what what are what are we doing here [2:56] what is what is business how does it [2:57] work what's important to know what [3:00] what's not important to know and so one [3:02] of the things that I tried to do with [3:04] the personal MBA um and and one of the [3:07] the reasons like how the project got [3:09] started was I figured that there was [3:13] there was a book written by a business [3:16] school professor in the 1950s or [3:18] something and I just needed to go out [3:20] and find that book and read that book [3:23] and then I would understand the [3:25] fundamentals then I would understand the [3:26] basics of of what it is that that we're [3:29] all doing here [3:30] and I looked and I looked and I read and [3:33] I read and I I couldn't find it and so [3:35] at a certain [3:37] point that I had essentially spent [3:40] months reading just going through [3:42] category after category just trying to [3:44] understand for myself what businesses [3:46] are how businesses work and at a certain [3:49] point I realized like this is important [3:52] to me and there's something that should [3:55] exist in the world that for some reason [3:58] doesn't exist in the world and I think I [4:00] need to be the person to make that to do [4:03] that and so that's when the personal MBA [4:06] be went from just this crazy side [4:09] project that I that I did post undergrad [4:12] into essentially a second full-time time [4:15] job reading and research and and trying [4:17] to to decide for myself what are the [4:21] critical parts of business how do [4:24] businesses work how do they function and [4:27] then I decided to put that in a form [4:29] that other people people could read and [4:30] benefit from as well what is an MBA [4:34] master of Business Administration it's [4:36] big big degree um actually one of the [4:39] most [4:41] economically uh successful academic [4:44] degrees that exist um over the past [4:47] several decades uh growth in uh business [4:50] masters programs worldwide has has just [4:53] exploded and so for better or worse when [4:57] adults decide that their interest [5:00] in business the first thing they do is [5:03] go to Google or Amazon and they type in [5:06] the letters MBA and they start looking [5:09] for graduate business school school [5:12] programs and I think that's a mistake I [5:16] think there's there's a reason that [5:20] people want to learn business there's a [5:22] reason that people um find this area of [5:25] of knowledge useful and I don't [5:27] necessarily think Academia is the the [5:29] place to start I think there's an [5:31] enormous amount of business knowledge [5:33] and skill that you can develop on your [5:35] own um by understanding the most [5:38] important Concepts around what [5:40] businesses are and how they work and [5:44] using them in your day-to-day life using [5:45] it in the career that you already have [5:47] using it to start something new on your [5:50] own and just a a few very simple [5:53] straightforward ideas go a very long way [5:56] and so my goal in writing the Pumba was [5:59] to [6:00] explain business to someone who has no [6:03] knowledge no experience no idea what's [6:07] going on start from absolute Square zero [6:11] and explain all of the different parts [6:12] of a business how they work how they [6:14] interrelate to each other and so you can [6:16] take that knowledge and do good work [6:19] whatever it is that that you do in your [6:21] life or in your career when you say do [6:23] good work we're talking about an outcome [6:25] there what kind of outcomes do you think [6:26] if someone's just clicked on this [6:28] conversation now and we you know with [6:30] the knowledge that we're going to talk [6:32] about this as many as well as other [6:33] things what do you think the outcome for [6:36] them could be if they got access to the [6:39] information that you put in this book [6:41] the personal MBA but also from listening [6:42] to this conversation sure uh so many of [6:46] of the readers of the personal MBA over [6:48] the years um our early career [6:50] professionals are just getting started [6:52] in their career in some way shape or [6:53] form and I can't tell you the number of [6:55] times that that I've heard from someone [6:57] who's like I'm interviewing for my first [6:59] job or I am interviewing for my first [7:02] big promotion um I actually have a [7:05] friend who is who was in this position [7:07] uh a couple months ago she's like I'm a [7:10] skilled professional I've been working [7:12] for a while there's an opportunity to [7:15] move into management here and part of [7:18] that interview is going to be they're [7:20] going to ask me like how how do we [7:23] improve the business that we're in she's [7:25] like I'm trained as an engineer I don't [7:27] know about any of the this business [7:30] stuff and so there's a very simple way [7:33] of understanding what a business is what [7:36] a business does the primary parts that [7:39] every single business has and and how [7:42] those processes [7:44] interrelate and what that knowledge gets [7:46] you is the ability to take a look at any [7:49] existing business and understand it in a [7:52] very deep and fundamental way so you can [7:55] take a complex organization you can [7:57] break it down into parts that are very [8:00] simple straightforward easy to [8:02] understand and then you can take that [8:05] knowledge to ask a series of very useful [8:08] questions how is this business creating [8:10] value how do they attract the attention [8:13] of people who might want or need what [8:15] this business provides how do they [8:17] convince people to pull out their wallet [8:18] or checkbook or credit card um and and [8:21] give the business money how does the [8:23] business deliver the value that it it [8:25] promising to its paying customers and [8:28] then is the business bringing in money [8:30] how's the business spending money and a [8:33] is it bringing in more than it spending [8:35] if not there's a problem um and more [8:38] importantly is it enough is it enough to [8:42] make all of the time and energy and [8:44] effort that's being put into the [8:46] business by the owner and the employees [8:48] worthwhile and that's the essence of [8:51] finance and so understanding business in [8:54] this very systematic way is a superpower [8:59] it it allows you to take a look at [9:01] anything like the businesses that are [9:02] happening in the world all around us it [9:04] helps you understand them if you want to [9:07] create a business this is the foundation [9:10] of every business plan that has or ever [9:13] will exist because each of these parts [9:17] is universal essential and fundamental [9:20] you have to answer these questions and [9:22] so by having this framework in your head [9:24] um going back to my friend earlier her [9:28] prep for the interview was very simple [9:30] we had a 15minute conversation about [9:32] what those things might look like she [9:34] went away and did her prep and she went [9:36] into the interview the next day and she [9:38] was offered the job and one of the [9:41] things that comes out of having this [9:43] deep understanding of business even for [9:46] potentially very young or very Junior [9:49] people who are just getting [9:52] started understanding these things being [9:55] able to ask these questions being able [9:58] to know what's important and what's not [10:00] and think like an owner or an operator [10:02] of the [10:04] business is what the owners and [10:06] operators and Executives and managers [10:09] are looking for in terms of people to [10:11] hire people to recruit or people to [10:14] start companies and so the more you [10:17] understand how all of this works at a [10:19] deeply fundamental level the more [10:21] opportunities you're going to have I [10:22] think it's I think it's a skill That's [10:24] essential for every person to to know [10:27] and and be conversent [10:30] I think from the stats you said about [10:31] how the desire to sign up to a academic [10:36] MBA have increased most people would [10:39] agree true because you know that's a [10:40] reflection of demand in the market [10:43] you're saying more and more people are [10:44] going to University and trying to do a [10:46] business [10:48] course are they being scammed because if [10:51] you think about the promise they're [10:54] signing up to even through the lens that [10:55] you've just described they're being [10:57] marketed something sure is that [10:59] institution delivering the value that [11:02] they're being marketed I.E I guess the [11:04] the promise is that you'll have a better [11:06] career you'll earn more money if I go to [11:08] university and do a business degree is [11:10] that being [11:11] delivered the answer to that is it [11:13] depends and the it depends is it depends [11:16] on what you want for yourself and your [11:19] life and so um approximately 2third of [11:24] business school graduates um go into [11:27] either management consulting or [11:29] Investment [11:30] Banking um the remainder of them the [11:33] vast majority go into working for [11:35] extremely large companies and so if you [11:39] want your life to look like that then [11:43] the promise that is is very often [11:45] delivered but with business business [11:47] school programs is you're essentially [11:49] buying yourself a very expensive [11:51] interview to have an opportunity at a [11:53] company or a firm or an industry where [11:56] that is the primary mode of of um um of [12:00] getting into it [12:02] now the price of that interview can be [12:06] very very Steep and so um the the top 10 [12:10] Business Schools um as we're talking [12:12] right now charge anywhere between $240 [12:15] and [12:17] $250,000 for a two-year [12:19] program that's an enormous amount of [12:21] money and that's usually financed with [12:23] debt and so if you don't have a a for [12:26] example if you're not working for a [12:28] company that is willing to sponsor your [12:29] way through and pay the tuition costs [12:32] most of these degrees are are financed [12:34] with debt and that debt is going to be [12:38] with you regardless of whether or not [12:40] you like your career [12:44] regardless of the the economic situation [12:47] that you you graduate into regardless [12:49] whether or not you get a job at at the [12:51] end of it [12:53] so you're taking on an enormous OB an [12:56] enormous obligation spending a lot of [12:59] money borrowing a lot of money with a [13:02] very unsure outcome at the end is there [13:05] any correlation between getting an MBA [13:07] and long-term Career Success uh it it's [13:10] funny uh this has been asked by very [13:13] many people and the answer is always no [13:15] um so my my two favorite studies here um [13:19] Jeffrey feffer and Christina Fong at [13:21] Stanford University at the time this was [13:23] the early 2000s business school [13:25] professors did a study of do business [13:28] school programs work because if they did [13:32] you would expect to see more successful [13:34] Executives [13:36] professionals having business school [13:38] degrees and what they found is no it [13:42] makes absolutely no difference and my my [13:45] favorite quote um was was by the lead [13:48] offer um Jeffrey feffer was like if you [13:51] are good enough to get in you are good [13:53] enough to do well [13:55] regardless it's a credentialing system [13:58] it's it's a pre selection um but really [14:01] like the people who make things happen [14:03] in business are people individuals with [14:07] skills and abilities and the abil the [14:10] the the Curiosity and the drive to to [14:12] make things happen you don't necessarily [14:15] get that from having three letters after [14:17] the end of your name there's going to be [14:19] so many people that are listening that [14:20] want to start their own businesses [14:22] they're probably currently in a [14:23] corporate job right now and they're [14:24] thinking gosh I have this idea I'd love [14:27] to give it a go but something is holding [14:29] them in place and from reading your book [14:31] it's it's the first thing that tends to [14:33] hold people in place is just their [14:34] belief that business is complicated yeah [14:37] um from everything you've come to learn [14:39] and all the testimonials you've had do [14:41] you agree with that belief that business [14:42] is complicated and or how difficult do [14:44] you think it is for the average person [14:46] with an idea to go from working in a job [14:49] to earning I don't know $10,000 a month [14:52] running their own business do you think [14:54] that's achievable for most people I [14:55] think it is achievable for most people [14:57] yeah and I I think uh um I think [15:00] business is complex in the sense of [15:03] there are many moving Parts it's not [15:05] just one thing they're interr [15:07] relatednesses that you need to [15:09] understand it's not complicated in the [15:13] sense of the most important ideas [15:16] principles things to do things to [15:18] understand are not all that difficult [15:20] when it get gets down to it um I think [15:23] in business in general um somewhat for [15:26] status related reasons but business [15:29] people like to feel fancy and [15:31] complicated and and sometimes you signal [15:33] status or sophistication by making [15:35] things sound really big or difficult or [15:38] or complex I think that's fundamentally [15:41] not the case for business most of the [15:43] ideas that we deal with are common sense [15:47] and simple [15:48] arithmetic and [15:50] so we do need to Grapple with the [15:52] complexities of the world because as we [15:56] were talking earlier the every business [15:58] has these five major interrelated parts [16:00] we need to understand how those work um [16:03] businesses are created by people for the [16:06] benefit of other people and so we need [16:08] to understand human psychology both our [16:11] psychology and the psychology of the [16:13] people we inter interact with relate to [16:17] whether that's customers or employees [16:20] contractors the other people in our [16:22] world and then there are certain parts [16:24] about how the world Works system and [16:27] process how things tend to interact with [16:30] each other that's very valuable and [16:33] important to know um but [16:37] again complex not complicated and I [16:41] think there's there's a lot of for for [16:43] the person who wants to [16:45] start a new business a lot of it comes [16:49] down to answering those fundamental [16:50] questions how are you going to create [16:52] value that someone else in the world [16:55] wants or needs okay so let's start so [16:58] typically when I do these podcasts I I [17:00] try and navigate The Journey right I try [17:02] and figure out where to start but this [17:03] is going to be the first time I actually [17:04] ask you if I am that person who has an [17:07] idea in my head um or maybe I've got you [17:09] know I'm off to the races with an idea [17:11] I've got a I don't know I'm going to [17:13] launch a business that sells [17:17] candles okay sure I think I can make [17:20] candles that smell amazing so what's the [17:23] first of those sort of levers or [17:25] principles I need to think about when [17:27] I'm when I'm designing my business [17:29] thinking about my business you know [17:30] thinking about making a business plan [17:32] what is step one in that Journey yeah [17:35] Step One is is the value creation [17:37] component which is it it sounds like in [17:39] in this particular example the candles [17:41] are the the type of value that that [17:44] would be created and then the the [17:46] relevant question there [17:48] is why do people buy candles what are [17:51] they looking for when when somebody goes [17:54] goes out and they say you know what I [17:55] would really like to have a candle right [17:57] now [17:59] what do they want what do they need what [18:01] are they looking for they want them to [18:03] smell nice exactly okay so perfect they [18:06] want them to look nice yeah um they want [18:09] them to not be a ripoff so they want [18:11] them to be cheap guessing they want them [18:15] to last a long time I guess sure y last [18:18] a long time okay and so this is a a [18:21] really interesting thing a lot of the [18:23] things around value creation comes come [18:25] down to making trade-offs between [18:27] competing priorities and [18:29] so the perfect product or the perfect [18:32] offering would deliver every single [18:35] thing that the the customer would like [18:37] and it would be free yeah and so a lot [18:40] of the the early stage value creation [18:42] process is like okay we've identified [18:44] some some areas like things that people [18:47] are looking for things that people [18:49] want can you understand each of those [18:52] things in detail around for example what [18:54] makes a really good candle set what [18:56] makes a candle last longer what allow [18:59] Kingdom manufacturing at at a relatively [19:01] inexpensive rate all of those things and [19:04] then most successful businesses pick one [19:06] or two of those things to focus on and [19:09] then turn that dial all the way up to 9 [19:13] 10 11 and so for example you might be [19:16] able to make the best smelling longest [19:19] lasting candle using some complex [19:22] chemistry manufacturing process whatever [19:24] mhm that might be very expensive to do [19:27] so the price of the candle might be [19:28] higher than you than you otherwise uh [19:30] would like it to be um or you could go [19:33] the other direction let's make the [19:34] cheapest most ubiquitous candles ever [19:37] but then let's focus on the distribution [19:39] end of things to have candles in more [19:41] places and so you start um this was [19:45] something that that I learned how to do [19:48] very early in in my career I worked for [19:50] a consumer goods manufacturer big [19:52] company called Proctor and Gamble who [19:54] make everything by the way if people [19:56] don't know what Pro everything they [19:57] literally they're probably 10 things in [19:59] this room that Proctor and Gamble made [20:00] yeah toothpaste laundry detergent you [20:03] know all of that I I worked on the home [20:04] side and one of the things that I took [20:08] away was uh every once in a while you'll [20:10] you'll read in like the The Wall Street [20:13] Journal New York Times whatever about [20:14] the the crazy lengths that consumer [20:18] goods researchers will will go to to [20:20] figure out how people use like paper [20:23] towels or something like that I got to [20:26] be one of those people for a couple [20:27] years and it was [20:29] fascinating I've watched so many people [20:32] clean their [20:33] kitchens and there's there's a certain [20:35] amount of like the value creation [20:37] process that that is psychology and [20:40] anthropology of just going out into the [20:42] world with your eyes wide open noticing [20:46] what people do asking questions noticing [20:49] subtle things that they might not even [20:50] pick pick up [20:52] on and then if you do more formal [20:55] research you can start asking people to [20:58] to make explicit trade-offs between [21:00] options and so if you could have a [21:03] candle that lasted the long time versus [21:07] had the most amazing scent throw ever [21:10] which one would you pick and you can [21:13] start to to kind of navigate the space [21:15] of possible solutions in that particular [21:17] category by talking to people who buy [21:20] candles because you don't want to ask a [21:22] random person on the street you want to [21:24] talk to people who will actually [21:25] purchase the things that that uh that [21:27] you're creating [21:30] but by paying attention and by asking [21:32] questions and starting to to get a feel [21:34] for [21:35] how the people who are making these [21:37] buying decisions actually navigate the [21:40] process of narrowing down options to [21:42] make a decision that's where you find [21:45] some sometimes the very tiny things that [21:49] make an enormous difference that's where [21:51] you find the places to innovate right [21:53] yeah but people don't know what they [21:54] want right so you got to be careful [21:55] because if you give people a survey on [21:57] candles exactly [21:59] they might tell you something but they [22:00] might buy you know there's this sort of [22:04] Detachment between what we think we want [22:06] and how we spend our money totally which [22:08] can cause people you know because I'm on [22:09] Dragon's St so people I'm halfway [22:11] through filming at the moment so I've [22:13] had 50 pictures so far and one of the [22:15] most popular phrases I hear as a dragon [22:17] on Dragon s which is the like shark tank [22:19] in the US and around the world is I have [22:22] this idea my friends and my M my mom [22:25] have told me it's great and they they' [22:26] definitely buy one and here it is and [22:28] and I go that means [ __ ] nothing [22:30] means absolutely nothing yeah and a lot [22:33] of people pursue ideas they quit their [22:35] career they spend years pursuing this [22:37] thing that their seven best friends and [22:38] their mom said they would buy and they [22:42] you know they gave it to their their [22:43] friend and their mom and their friend [22:44] and mom used it and said they liked it [22:46] yeah the best way to get around that ask [22:49] for early pre-orders ask people to lay [22:52] down money on the idea so um this I mean [22:57] this is part of how Kickstarter started [23:00] right here's an idea here's a concept [23:02] here's exactly what you're going to get [23:05] please enter your credit card details [23:07] because it's that act it's the raising [23:09] your hand wallet checkbook credit card [23:11] and saying yes I'll take one that's the [23:13] signal that you're looking forward for [23:16] and that can be everything from you know [23:19] Kickstarter on the consumer side to [23:21] letters of intent on on the the mid to [23:24] large size company side yes if you build [23:28] this Software System we will sign up for [23:31] an engagement at X price for X term um [23:34] so finding that buy buying signal is [23:36] really important and then going back to [23:40] to your comment earlier about um [23:42] noticing the the subtle [23:46] things people's behavior says a lot more [23:49] than people's words and so if you if [23:52] there's a conflict between what people [23:54] are saying and what people are doing [23:56] focus on what they're doing all the time [23:59] um one of my favorite uh stories coming [24:02] out of the the um consumer research [24:05] department at Proctor and Gamble was [24:07] there was a researcher in in a a lady's [24:10] home one afternoon and they were just [24:12] watching her do her laundry this was [24:15] this was back in the days of powdered [24:16] laundry detergent so you know you have [24:18] the box of powder you have the scoop put [24:20] it in and so the uh the lady turned on [24:25] her her [24:27] washer and just stood there for like 15 [24:31] 20 seconds doing nothing just like [24:34] waiting and the research just watching [24:37] and then at a certain point she's [24:39] like what what are you doing she's like [24:42] oh I'm I'm waiting for the tub to fill [24:45] up why are you doing that it's like well [24:48] if there's not water in the bottom when [24:51] I put the powdered laundry detergent in [24:54] it's not it's not going to dissolve [24:56] properly so you've got to wait for the [24:58] tub to fill up a little bit and then [25:00] then you put the powder in and you swish [25:03] it around the the bottom of the Basin [25:06] with your hand so it dissolves all the [25:07] way and then you put the clothes [25:10] in and so the researcher took this back [25:15] to the um to the research department and [25:18] all the chemists are just like this is [25:20] dumb we have science we have data that [25:23] says no our our detergent dissolves [25:26] completely this is not this is a [25:29] nonissue and the consumer researchers [25:32] are like no this is a psychological need [25:35] there's a bit of reassurance here that [25:38] people don't have how can we give that [25:41] to them and the answer to that was the [25:44] invention of liquid laundry detergent [25:46] which is now a multi-billion dollar a [25:48] year product category and it didn't come [25:51] from a physical need it came from an [25:52] unmet psychological [25:54] need and I just love that because I [25:58] remember remember growing up um watching [26:01] my grandmother do laundry and she did [26:03] the exact same thing for the exact same [26:06] reasons and it's sometimes those subtle [26:10] things so for example going back to our [26:14] candles um one of the things that uh [26:18] just by pure coincidence I was involved [26:20] in uh when I when I worked at PNG uh was [26:23] scent research so the scent of the [26:25] cleaning product like there's there's a [26:27] lot of psychology there's a lot of [26:29] science um that that goes into [26:32] that [26:34] and there's a difference in how [26:37] something smells for example when you [26:39] take a cap off of a bottle of something [26:41] and sniff it smells different than if [26:45] you for example a cleaning product you [26:47] pour it into a bucket and dilute it with [26:49] water and you mop your [26:50] floor and [26:52] so those things make an enormous [26:55] difference like how is the product going [26:57] to be used and in the case of candles [26:59] one of the things that people pay very [27:01] close attention to is the smell of a [27:04] candle while it's [27:05] burning and the smell of a candle when [27:08] it's not [27:09] burning and there's a whole category of [27:12] candle purchasers who will buy a candle [27:16] based on what's called cold throw how [27:18] much does it smell when it's just [27:21] sitting on the middle of your table not [27:24] burning not doing anything and so those [27:27] are the the little bits like if you pay [27:29] close enough attention if you focus on [27:31] the right things the the the subtle [27:34] things that people are either saying or [27:35] not saying you can find those very [27:39] important unmet needs and then focus on [27:42] on meeting those and that's that's the [27:45] making of of a a product or an offer [27:47] that that has likes to it so interesting [27:50] because um we all walk around that thing [27:53] you were saying about the powed laudry [27:55] deterant that was 100% me I was too [27:57] young to be messing around with the [27:58] washing machine but whenever I had like [28:00] my shot my parents were out I'd pour all [28:02] the powder in into the little tray and [28:05] then I would like swish it around with [28:06] my finger I'd get water from the sink [28:08] above and pour it in there to try and [28:09] dissolve the powder with my finger so I [28:11] was doing that as well and I was [28:12] thinking as you you you were saying that [28:14] you know we all walk around with the [28:17] same kind of set of psychological biases [28:21] so if we assume that we can truly [28:26] understand how other people are behaving [28:29] when we are other people when we are [28:31] them as well when we have the same sort [28:32] of [28:33] psychology assuming that we can guess [28:36] that is quite dumb because none of us [28:38] would have ever guessed what you just [28:39] said about the laundry detergent thing [28:41] none of us would have ever sat in a [28:42] boardroom and figured that out we had to [28:44] go out into the world and almost become [28:47] like a fly on the wall or take a bird's [28:48] eye view on how we as humans are [28:51] behaving to spot that opportunity right [28:53] and and I was thinking you know there's [28:54] so many people that are maybe have [28:56] business ideas now [28:58] um or thinking of a business idea but [29:01] but there's just just gaping opportunity [29:03] in observing the world objectively and [29:05] seeing how people are doing what they're [29:06] doing and why they're doing what they're [29:07] doing um I always wonder that I think [29:10] you know if you're trying to think of a [29:11] new business idea should you sit down [29:13] with a piece of paper and sketch out the [29:15] problems that you've had in your life [29:17] should you just start to become more [29:19] aware of your day-to-day life and then [29:21] make notes in your journal or is there [29:23] another way to find that idea yes start [29:27] there for sure [29:28] yeah and then go out into the world with [29:30] your eyes open just looking for problems [29:33] annoyances frictions um things that are [29:36] just a little bit annoying or suboptimal [29:39] in some way I mean I I think kind of a [29:43] general a general question like we're [29:46] not humanity is not running out of [29:49] problems to solve the there are millions [29:51] of opportunities to make someone's life [29:55] a little bit more pleasant a little bit [29:56] more secure a little bit bit more [29:58] interesting a little bit more fun and so [30:01] I think there's there's a lot of magic [30:03] to be had in just going out into the [30:06] world and having experiences in the [30:08] world with other people and just [30:10] noticing in a way that you've never [30:12] noticed before of oh there's something [30:15] there that's that's a little bit higher [30:17] friction than it otherwise could be I [30:18] mean this this was kind of the the [30:20] Genesis of um like Amazon Amazon Prime [30:23] how can we make it as easy as possible [30:25] for someone to click a button and [30:26] something magically arrives on your [30:28] doorstep within 24 to 48 hours how can [30:33] we make just just this opportunity a [30:37] little bit more fun or different or [30:39] interesting um this is this is where [30:42] like um over the past 20 years and [30:44] consumer goods packaging design has come [30:46] come a long way because if you can grab [30:48] someone's attention and give them a [30:50] little bit of a pleasant experience [30:51] while they're they're walking around [30:53] shopping that's a good thing it it moves [30:56] an enormous amount of product and it's [30:58] something that you have to plan for from [30:59] the very beginning stages but it makes a [31:01] huge difference it's so interesting cuz [31:03] I was just thinking as you're saying [31:05] that I was thinking what is an annoyance [31:07] or a frustration that I've just I just [31:09] live with that I've kind of just assumed [31:13] is the way of the world and it's just [31:14] the way it is and one sprung to mind [31:16] that's very close to home in every sense [31:17] of the word we've been doing this [31:19] podcast a long time a couple of years [31:22] now three four years now and every [31:24] single time before we start the podcast [31:26] Jack will walk in and Jack will say to [31:27] the guest please don't bang on the table [31:28] because if you bang on the table it [31:29] comes through the [31:30] mic we've been saying it for years we [31:33] haven't figured out how to solve the [31:35] problem yet so if there's anybody out [31:36] there but I was thinking do you know [31:38] what what an entrepreneur would do um if [31:41] there was any in this [ __ ] room um we [31:44] would we would make our own mic we would [31:46] solve the problem we could we could [31:48] probably solve but we kind of just [31:49] assume that someone else will solve it [31:51] or it's just the way of the world and I [31:53] say this because we could have probably [31:55] fixed this we've been very busy but we [31:57] could have probably [31:58] made a new mic with a new Bas that [32:00] suspends the mic so the vibrations don't [32:02] go through but I say this because [32:04] everybody in their lives has those [32:05] frustrations absolutely things they're [32:07] just living with and they they're kind [32:09] of assuming that someone else is going [32:10] to solve it or it's just the way the [32:12] world is [32:14] yeah what's sorry Jack we can't hear you [32:17] Jack Jack's defending himself from the [32:19] corner [32:20] sure [32:23] yeah yeah it's difficult with sm7 BS but [32:27] uh no there's a company called reot that [32:29] makes some really amazing universal [32:31] shock mount adapters for microphone I [32:33] think we should I think we should do it [32:35] and we should sell [32:36] it we'll have a meeting about that later [32:39] are you gon to go get it yeah totally [32:41] are you gon to go get it oh it's in [32:43] there [32:44] okay no I was thinking God why didn't we [32:46] just make one okay so Jack tried to make [32:48] this contraption here oh cool which [32:51] would I guess suspend the microphone and [32:53] limit the vibrations going through it [32:55] yeah okay but we tried it and it didn't [32:57] work now now we're very busy with lots [32:59] of solving other issues so this was kind [33:01] of low on the list of priorities but [33:03] that as an example and everybody [33:05] listening to this now has daytoday [33:07] frustrations things they observe and go [33:09] that could be better sure and they go I [33:11] hope someone else figures that out yes [33:14] and that's the entrepreneur that's going [33:15] to make the millions yeah and and the [33:16] the difference between um entrepreneurs [33:18] and non entrepreneurs is the [33:19] entrepreneur says and I'm going to be [33:21] the one that solves that problem and [33:23] then what happens it depends on the idea [33:26] so for example like manufacturing idea [33:29] like this is this is where we start [33:30] getting into the different types of [33:32] businesses whether you're you're [33:34] building a product or building a service [33:37] um some sort of shared resource [33:39] membership um I I talk about 12 [33:41] different forms of value in the personal [33:43] MBA so the instantiation of the idea [33:47] really depends on the form of which the [33:50] you're you're going to deliver it to to [33:52] the end result but like a lot of times [33:55] the early stages are prototyping finding [33:59] people who might benefit from this thing [34:01] getting their input advice perspective [34:05] and that gives you the information that [34:06] you need to either continue going down [34:09] that path or sometimes the information [34:11] is yeah this is a this is something that [34:15] could potentially be a really good idea [34:17] um but is is not going to be a viable [34:19] business for for whatever reason and so [34:22] some of those early stages of [34:24] Entrepreneurship are very focused on [34:28] what is this how might it work can we [34:31] sketch it out in enough detail to know [34:34] what questions we need to answer next in [34:36] order to figure out like what are the [34:38] critical assumptions can we meet those [34:40] critical assumptions to make a viable [34:41] business if so yes let's move on to the [34:44] next up if not let's discard it and go [34:46] on to the next so when we think about [34:48] this microphone challenge we've had one [34:49] of the critical assumptions we're making [34:51] is that it can be solved sure is that [34:53] there's some way to kind of insulate the [34:55] microphone from the vibrations of the [34:57] table at some point as those vibrations [34:59] travel up and I can see in this quite [35:01] cool Contraption actually we've used [35:03] rubber here yeah assuming that if we [35:05] suspend it with rubber there I'm [35:06] guessing this is Jack's invention I [35:07] guess it's your or someone else's is it [35:09] your invention [35:10] yeah it's a cool idea it now um that's [35:14] an assumption we've [35:16] made I'm guessing it failed it failed [35:19] yeah I think [35:22] the [35:25] okay yes okay so these are the [35:27] assumptions you're talking about yes and [35:29] and there's also um in this specific [35:32] example it's something that will serve [35:34] the need with this particular microphone [35:37] and so for example you might be able to [35:38] solve the problem in a very [35:40] straightforward Way by changing to a [35:42] different microphone that has different [35:43] options available so a lot of it just [35:45] depends on the constraints that you're [35:46] dealing with and this is the early [35:48] stages of figuring out how to give value [35:51] to the end consumer this is the sort of [35:54] iterative experimental failure ridden [35:56] process yes which everyone has to go [36:00] through and I think this is important to [36:01] highlight because what often will happen [36:04] is people will take the first pop at it [36:07] I know we've been doing we've been [36:08] taking many pops but just for the sake [36:09] of this conversation they'll take the [36:11] first pop at it it won't work then [36:13] they'll concede uhhuh yep when it's and [36:17] a lot of it comes down [36:19] to how big is this problem how urgent is [36:22] it how many people need something like [36:24] this um so this is where you get into [36:26] like the you know St this The Standard [36:30] supply and demand sort of economic [36:32] consideration is this a need that only [36:34] you have or is this a need that many [36:36] many people have and how how big of a [36:39] need is this is this something that for [36:42] example um high-profile podcasters will [36:46] pay thousands of dollars to solve or is [36:48] this something that affects only a Subs [36:50] segment of people and is not valuable [36:53] enough to to bother with or to invest a [36:56] lot of time and energy researching [36:57] finding a a solution for how do we how [36:59] do you find out if there's a big enough [37:01] market for your idea that's where you [37:03] that's where you talk to people and [37:04] that's that's the this is where value [37:07] creation and marketing tend to intersect [37:10] and so it's can you identify people out [37:12] in the world who have a very [37:15] similar problem set of things that [37:18] they're think thinking about set of [37:19] questions that they're trying to answer [37:22] and the more of those people you can [37:23] identify and the more urgent and [37:26] pressing the need is [37:29] um that's the first thing that you need [37:31] to to look for in terms of of [37:33] identifying viable markets so they tell [37:35] me that they want it I go out there I [37:37] speak to people they all tell me that [37:38] they want it but that's not enough right [37:41] ask them to place a pre-order that [37:43] that's that's the step two H okay so [37:47] it's it's not the question [37:49] isn't do you want it is it's is this [37:53] enough of a problem for you to pay money [37:55] to solve it um um there's a a guy desk [37:59] trainer who who founded [38:01] intercom um has a saying I just love [38:05] he's like show me a credit card that has [38:07] been swiped to solve this problem and I [38:10] will concede that the problem is [38:13] real and so you're really looking for [38:15] like are people is this big enough [38:18] important enough are people spending [38:20] money to solve this particular need if [38:23] so that's a really great sign you're on [38:25] the right track okay so what I'm gonna [38:26] do then is we're going to before we [38:29] spend a lot of money in building out [38:32] this new microphone system we're going [38:34] to put up a waiting list for the [38:35] podcasters we're going to see how many [38:36] of them swipe to pre-order it yep and [38:39] then if we get I don't know a couple of [38:41] hundred a couple of thousand probably a [38:43] couple of hundred couple of hundred [38:45] swipes with their credit cards to [38:46] pre-order this thing even though we [38:47] haven't built it yet then we're going to [38:49] invest in building it yep does that make [38:51] sense it does and then you do a short [38:53] run to mitigate your risk first okay you [38:55] get your your uh initial Fe feedback [38:57] from your first run of customers they [38:59] will have opinions about what works and [39:01] what doesn't mhm and then um if that is [39:05] enough that's when you start like start [39:07] small and then you work up to to larger [39:09] and larger batches of production because [39:11] what's happening a lot out there with [39:13] aspiring entrepreneurs is they're [39:15] spending two to three years building [39:18] their company and it's all leading up to [39:20] this launch day where everything's [39:22] riding on this big launch day they've [39:23] raised I don't know $70,000 for their [39:25] whatever sure why is that the wrong [39:28] approach to take I think there's a [39:31] difference [39:33] between doing business and playing [39:35] business it's like people who get really [39:38] really excited of I'm going to start a [39:39] company and so the first thing I need to [39:41] do is pick a logo and buy my business [39:43] cards like that's the signaling parts of [39:45] business it's playing a role where the [39:48] actual doing of the business is the [39:50] value creation Marketing sales value [39:52] delivery finance and so the more you can [39:55] skip all the early stuff [39:57] get to the core of what is going to make [40:00] the business succeed or fail figure that [40:03] out as quickly as possible and then get [40:05] on with it then you're going to have [40:06] more than enough time and money to have [40:08] fancy business cards and like do do do [40:10] that bit but yeah it really is like at [40:13] the idea validation stage it's how can [40:15] you ask enough people who might be in [40:18] the market to spend money to solve this [40:20] particular problem how can you get [40:22] something valuable in front of them as [40:25] quickly as possible what would that look [40:27] like and how can you do that [40:28] particularly early on if you don't have [40:30] a lot of funding in a way that minimizes [40:32] time and finance because the worst [40:35] possible uh way to go about things is [40:39] raise millions of dollars of venture [40:41] capital and build up out this whole [40:43] thing only to have no one buy it at the [40:47] end you started with this point of value [40:49] giving value to other people why why is [40:53] that the the frame to think through when [40:56] you're thinking about the idea yeah I [41:00] think if you are not providing value to [41:03] other people in a fundamental way you [41:06] have no [41:07] business [41:09] um a venture that markets and sells [41:14] something that does not deliver value to [41:16] other people is a scam and so really [41:19] like I think there's there's a way of [41:22] thinking about business this is one of [41:24] the things I find fascinating about it [41:27] business to me is is a generative act [41:31] you are going out into the world you're [41:33] finding a problem you're finding a [41:34] solution to that problem you're creating [41:38] something that makes the world better in [41:41] some fundamental [41:43] way and then you're bringing it to the [41:45] attention of people who care and you're [41:47] convincing them that they need to try [41:49] this to actually solve their problem and [41:51] then it works and then they give you [41:53] money for it it's great so you can just [41:55] keep that process going going for for as [41:58] long as as it makes sense to everyone [42:00] involved like I I think to me a well [42:05] running working business system is a [42:09] thing of beauty you're solving people's [42:11] problems you're being rewarded for it [42:13] you're doing it in a way that allows you [42:15] to keep solving people's problems and it [42:18] makes your life better in the process I [42:19] think that's a wonderful way to live [42:21] your life and if you don't start [42:28] by asking the question what is the [42:29] valuable thing that I am going to [42:31] deliver to people who care the whole [42:34] thing pulls apart what step two then [42:37] yeah marketing marketing okay marketing [42:39] is fun yeah marketing is is just who [42:42] might be interested in this [42:43] thing um [42:46] and a lot of it is the the the [42:49] fundamental thing is if no one knows you [42:51] exist no one's going to be able to buy [42:54] your thing and and so marketing is is [42:58] the process of attracting the attention [43:00] of people who might be interested in the [43:02] value that that you're creating and in [43:05] an Ideal World making them curious [43:09] wanting to learn more um asking for [43:11] additional information engaging with [43:14] what what it is that you have a lot of [43:16] people conf conflate Marketing in sales [43:19] to me they're distinct processes so so [43:22] marketing is the attracting attention [43:24] and generating interest and then sales [43:27] is the process of convincing someone to [43:29] buy and then getting them set up as as [43:31] as a [43:32] customer and a lot of marketing comes [43:36] down [43:37] to what is it exactly that you're trying [43:40] to gather attention for and where do [43:42] those people generally hang out what are [43:45] they curious about what are they already [43:46] paying attention to what can you um what [43:50] can you take advantage of or dovetail [43:52] into in order to attract someone's [43:54] attention at the right moment at the [43:56] right time [43:57] and make them aware that you have [43:59] something that could benefit their life [44:01] here's what it is here's how you can [44:03] benefit from it to be great at marketing [44:05] do you think we need to understand the [44:07] underlying psychological sort of core [44:09] motivations of humans oh absolutely yeah [44:13] and you know what those are yeah um [44:14] there was a really great book about this [44:16] um published years ago called um drive [44:20] by Paul Lawrence and and noria um who I [44:23] think at the time was the um the dean of [44:26] Harvard Business [44:27] school and they argued that um humans [44:32] have four fundamental drives um and if I [44:35] can remember them off the top of my head [44:36] the drive to [44:38] acquire the drive to bond the drive to [44:42] learn and the drive to [44:45] defend is there a fifth the drive to [44:47] feel the drive to feel is is my addition [44:50] to to this okay so yeah and to me like [44:53] so the drive to acquire you know let's [44:55] go out and buy products in enhance my [44:58] career things like that the drive to [45:00] learn gather knowledge understand the [45:02] world um the drive to bond relationships [45:06] uh [45:07] experiences uh the drive to defend uh [45:10] let's protect myself home security [45:12] systems you know all all that thing and [45:14] for me like entertainment is very much a [45:16] a drive to [45:18] feel um we don't go to the movies to do [45:22] any of those previous four things we go [45:23] to the movies to have an experience to [45:26] feel motions and so I to me the vast [45:31] majority of offers in the [45:34] market are designed to to to hook into [45:38] or to take advantage of one of those [45:40] five core human drives and the more [45:43] drives that you you hook into generally [45:46] the more attractive the the business [45:48] offer is is going to be and so you could [45:52] make a a a pretty straightforward [45:53] argument that um one of the reasons that [45:56] soci media has become so popular over [45:58] the last decade is because it hooks into [46:02] at least four out of five of these [46:03] drives potentially all [46:05] five so give me an example of a business [46:08] and the drives that it's kind of playing [46:10] to in its marketing strategy so if we [46:13] think [46:14] about Nike maybe sure yeah so um the the [46:20] drive to acquire is straightforward I [46:22] need to put things on my feet like shoes [46:25] are great um also it is status so so I [46:28] would say the the there can be like the [46:31] acquiring status drive there can also be [46:34] very much like ingroup outgroup Dynamics [46:37] are a form of bonding right I'm the type [46:39] of person who identify or who will wear [46:42] this sort of thing I form relationships [46:45] with people who care about these [46:47] sneakers these special additions these [46:50] athletes these whatever [46:53] um less learning less defending [46:57] feeling can very much be a part of of a [47:00] product experience like people who [47:02] strongly identify with certain brands [47:04] certain Lifestyles certain ways of of [47:07] being in the world like when you put on [47:10] something that makes you feel good there [47:12] can be an emotional component to that [47:14] experience that's very very strong it's [47:18] interesting because I was thinking about [47:19] Apple as well through that lens Apple's [47:21] a great example obviously so if we think [47:22] about the drive to acquire very much a [47:24] status project product and it always has [47:26] been Bond again most much of their [47:28] advertising is about connecting people [47:30] in connection learn again you know much [47:32] of their marketing is about the fact [47:33] that you can learn on these devices like [47:36] the iPad for example defend they talk [47:39] about how encryption a lot and huge [47:42] focus on security and privacy right now [47:43] for that reason yeah the drive to feel I [47:46] guess most of their marketing when I [47:48] think about the Vision Pro where they [47:49] weirdly show like the dad and his kids [47:52] and he's got this massive headset on I [47:53] guess that was an attempt to arouse em [47:56] The Vision Pro now has this sort of [47:57] spatial video where you can you know one [48:01] of my team members when they first put [48:03] it on for the first time remarked that [48:05] they wish they had got spatial videos of [48:06] their grandmother that's passed away [48:08] because but that's the kind of narrative [48:09] that they show with the products as well [48:11] is that it's going to they really put at [48:12] the heart in the the marketing [48:14] initiatives they do so they really do a [48:16] really good job at hitting all of these [48:17] yeah I I would say do you remember the [48:19] early iPod advertisements with like the [48:22] white silhouette person dancing on a Col [48:24] those advertisements were [48:25] straightforward feeling [48:27] a thousand songs in your pocket it's how [48:29] the songs make you feel this is a way [48:31] that you can feel that more often or [48:33] more strongly it's pure [48:36] emotion and they specifically you know [48:39] so a more like straightforward drive to [48:41] acquire on a technology product is is [48:44] like how many gigabytes of storage does [48:46] this thing [48:47] have and they talked about they made a [48:49] deliberate decision not to talk about [48:51] that at all because it didn't matter [48:53] people didn't care it was all about [48:56] here's how you can feel through the [48:58] experience of using this product to have [49:00] an experience you wouldn't otherwise [49:01] have I mean this highlights a really [49:03] important point about marketing but [49:04] building products and deciding what to [49:06] build which is how important is it to [49:08] make something that is logically better [49:10] versus something that is emotionally [49:12] more compelling yeah in an Ideal World [49:16] you do both um you can go a long long [49:20] way with [49:21] emotion even when you don't have um [49:25] straightforward [49:27] Superior product benefits you know going [49:29] going back to uh our our discussion of [49:32] candles earlier candles have been around [49:35] for what hundreds of years like you're [49:37] probably not going to to make you know [49:41] barring Material Science advancements [49:43] you're probably not going to make a a a [49:45] technical contribution to Candle science [49:48] in the process of making something speak [49:49] for [49:50] yourself I mean it's possible it's my [49:52] next business IDE I told you yeah um but [49:56] like [49:57] things like the packaging and the [50:00] marketing and the scent and the unboxing [50:03] experience and the anticipation of [50:06] putting it out as as the centerpiece [50:08] when all your friends come and all of [50:10] that like there are so many emotional [50:12] hooks to that sort of [50:15] experience that you could argue that [50:17] candles are sold [50:18] almost all on emotion and that's great [50:22] that's the value that's being delivered [50:24] do you know a better example of that [50:25] I've came across recently liquid death [50:28] oh yeah it's just [50:30] water what yes they built a billion doll [50:33] business selling water in a fancy can [50:35] totally and affiliation like there's a [50:37] little bit of a bonding or I'm the type [50:39] of person who wants to present to the [50:41] world in this particular way so I don't [50:44] buy Fiji I buy liquid [50:46] death sure it's just water it's just [50:49] water sometimes it's carbonated or [50:51] flavored yeah come on it's water I I saw [50:53] some I thought these stats might be out [50:55] of date but it was maybe last year the [50:56] the year before I saw that they were [50:57] selling half a billion dollars of water [51:01] and they're like a fairly new market [51:03] entrance in the grand scheme of things [51:05] and and from what I can observe it's [51:07] just a different can yeah and the [51:10] packaging matters the affiliation [51:12] matters the story matters why do you [51:13] think they won I think they were first [51:17] so that's also [51:19] um you talk about in your book the value [51:22] of doing something big and crazy for the [51:25] value of doing something big and crazy I [51:28] mean they were the first to do something [51:31] crazy on the marketing side for water it [51:33] was a really boring product category [51:35] very straightforward very functional um [51:39] and what their big Insight was the way [51:42] that we talk about it the way we package [51:44] it the way we present it matters and [51:46] there's a certain Subs segment of [51:47] customers that would not buy a [51:50] straightforward bottle of water because [51:51] they don't care but if they can signal [51:56] something about themselves or a group [51:58] affiliation in in some way shape or form [52:01] through the packaging of the product [52:03] then then to a certain subse of [52:06] customers that's valuable I've been [52:08] thinking about this theory for a while [52:09] last couple of months maybe six months [52:11] now that Brands need to especially New [52:15] Market entrance in saturated busy [52:17] markets like if you're coming out with [52:18] an energy drink right now or you're [52:20] coming out with a can of water you the [52:23] easiest way to market in terms of [52:25] marketing is if you you do a really good [52:27] job of making it clear that you are the [52:30] antithesis of the incumbents yes so you [52:33] are a or not an and in your customers's [52:37] decision framework for and what I mean [52:39] by that is to be very specific um I've [52:43] invested in a company called perfect Ted [52:45] it's actually the drink in my cup right [52:46] now and when in one of my first meetings [52:48] with them um when we sat down I said you [52:51] know this brand I think will win if the [52:53] consumer walks down that Supermarket [52:54] aisle and thinks to themselves [52:56] I can be a insert incumbent energy drink [53:01] brand mhm or a perfect Ted person I [53:04] can't possibly be both right and we all [53:06] know that well I think a liquid death [53:09] customer doesn't believe they can be a [53:12] EV and Water customer sure because that [53:15] it's so clearly they've stood for [53:17] something so much so that in doing so [53:19] they stand against [53:21] something and and this is what breakout [53:23] brands have done Brew dog is a good [53:24] example in the UK brw dog came into the [53:27] market Indie Punk beer they literally [53:29] took Carling beers and stuff like that [53:31] to Fields as part of their marketing and [53:33] blew it up with dynamite to say we are [53:35] not commoditized beer we are the [53:37] antithesis we are an awe you're either [53:39] with them or you're with us yep but that [53:41] takes guts it does it takes Bulls like [53:43] liquid death Bulls yeah yeah and there's [53:45] there's a whole like on the [53:47] psychological side of things the the [53:49] studies about signaling and counter [53:51] signaling like this is this is how [53:53] fashion in in the the broad scale works [53:57] so all the cool people high status [54:00] fashionable people start wearing a thing [54:02] to Signal group affiliation of like we [54:05] are the type of people who wear this [54:08] yeah and then very quickly you have [54:10] follow on folks who like oh the cool [54:13] people are wearing this I should start [54:15] wearing this too and that happens a [54:17] couple Generations until that thing is [54:20] at marks and Spencer Target uh choose [54:24] your retailer and then [54:27] the people who want to distinguish [54:30] themselves for from all of the things [54:32] that are being sold the mass retailers [54:34] will change Fashions specifically to [54:37] signal that we are not that and so the [54:39] cycle begins [54:40] again and so that that's just like [54:43] social signaling is a rabbit hole that [54:45] you could spend decades going down and [54:48] not get to the end of it but it's all [54:52] about who am I presenting myself to be [54:56] in the world who do I affiliate with who [54:58] do I not affiliate with and counter [55:01] signaling is noticing a signal that's [55:05] happening out there there in the world [55:06] and making a deliberate decision to be [55:09] the opposite of that or the the the [55:11] antithesis of that in some ways [55:16] and that is such a fascinating part of [55:19] human [55:20] psychology that [55:22] um generally speaking if you can so you [55:26] could say like um Apple did a lot of [55:29] counter signaling because Microsoft you [55:32] know some of the incumbent manufacturers [55:35] was their uh their famous uh 1984 [55:38] advertisement was almost pure counter [55:40] signaling it was almost pure [55:43] emotion and it set them up as the polar [55:47] opposite to faceless beig computer box [55:52] Corporation and so yeah like if if [55:55] there's something that is is the [55:58] prevailing Trend in a certain industry [56:00] it can often pay to you know in in the [56:03] anthropological sense take a step back [56:05] notice what's going on here's the signal [56:07] that's being sent and then make a [56:08] deliberate decision to be the polar [56:11] opposite of that it takes guts though [56:13] because there's no blueprint for the [56:15] opposite yeah and you stand out yeah [56:17] which is great you get attacked yeah I [56:19] mean that's the the benefit of [56:20] controversy too so controversy can be a [56:22] wonderful marketing tactic if you use it [56:25] responsibly responsibly and so you know [56:28] you don't necessarily want to turn your [56:29] business into a soap opera but by um by [56:34] deliberately courting a certain amount [56:36] of controversy focused on the benefits [56:39] or the features you can attract a lot of [56:41] attention that way and that's what I [56:42] mean by the brewog example where they [56:44] took beer to their competitiv beer to a [56:47] field and blew it up with dynamite sure [56:49] and said we are not commoditized beer [56:50] they got they got destroyed they got [56:51] attacked so so much but the the [56:53] controversy is energy and it's making [56:56] people make a decision exactly and that [56:59] results in what is what became a [57:02] multi-billion dollar Indie beer brand [57:05] with a fraction of the marketing budget [57:08] but also that had been around a fraction [57:10] of the time versus the incumbents really [57:12] interesting Jane warring was on the [57:13] podcast she's the founder of dermologica [57:14] and she said the same thing to me she [57:16] said you know she's Built This Global [57:17] Beauty brand she goes we need to piss [57:19] off the 80% to get to the the 20% she go [57:23] we don't need everybody to like us [57:24] that's not a brand exactly a brand makes [57:25] you feel something y um but most people [57:28] that are struggling right now with [57:29] marketing I think much of the reason [57:31] they are struggling is because they are [57:33] vanilla wallpaper yeah I mean this going [57:36] back to our new product development [57:38] conversation that's what a lot of people [57:39] struggle with too because they have [57:41] their first conversation with somebody [57:43] who's like oh I hate that it's GNA work [57:45] for me it's like oh no yeah what am I [57:47] doing wrong how can I fix this it's like [57:49] no no no no you don't need all the [57:51] people you need the tiny fraction who [57:54] care more than everyone else M and a [57:58] certain like a certain amount of [58:00] polarization is a very very good thing [58:03] because it means that the thing that [58:04] you're doing is distinctive enough like [58:07] the people who care really care they [58:10] really love it they're going to buy it [58:11] consistently buy it often the people who [58:14] don't care might be completely apathetic [58:17] to the category you might not ever spend [58:20] a million dollars in 10 years you might [58:22] not ever be able to get them to care and [58:25] so your job is at a market marketer is [58:26] to attract the attention of all of the [58:28] hyper responders the people who care a [58:29] lot care often and like are really into [58:32] it and then all of the people who don't [58:35] care and are never going to Care they [58:37] can go away and that's fine if I wanted [58:39] to be an exceptional [58:41] marketeer if I wanted to you know I've [58:42] got a product and idea and I want to [58:44] make sure that it penetrates a very [58:45] noisy online Market but even an IRL [58:48] Market what would you um what kind of [58:52] skills and principles or first [58:54] principles should I really be thinking [58:56] about to become a great marketeer [58:57] because you know we can get carried away [58:59] with the fish and what I mean by the [59:02] fish is tactics and strategies but what [59:04] is the fishing rod what is the the [59:06] mindset the principles that are going to [59:07] make me a great marketeer for the next [59:09] 30 40 years regardless of change yes [59:11] fundamentals of human attention that [59:13] comes down to psychology so so the vast [59:16] majority of people moving through their [59:18] lives are busy stressed overwhelmed [59:24] already have too too much information [59:26] bombarding them from all uh all points [59:29] at all times and so figuring [59:33] out I think this is a story you tell in [59:35] your book actually so so Jenny on the [59:38] side of the road who who's who's broken [59:40] down having the worst day of her entire [59:42] life um it's a little bit hyperbole but [59:46] it's it's true like most of us are just [59:49] wildly oversubscribed in in terms of [59:51] attention and time and energy and so [59:54] figuring out the little bits [59:57] of being able to to highlight the thing [60:00] that's most important most interesting [60:02] most valuable upfront quickly in a way [60:05] that cuts through that is the primary [60:08] skill of [60:09] marketing [60:10] and a lot of the the other particulars [60:14] the tactics the strategies are very [60:16] dependent on what Market are you [60:17] operating in what scale are you [60:19] operating at like all of that stuff but [60:22] fundamentally understanding that people [60:24] are busy and starved for time and [60:26] attention how can you grab it and what [60:27] can you do to keep it um that's the [60:30] primary skill of marketing by far so if [60:32] I'm if I'm running that if I'm thinking [60:34] about starting my candle business what [60:35] is step three in your sort of I think [60:37] you said five-step framework of what [60:38] really matters sure yeah this is sales [60:41] okay sales and so for a candle business [60:43] this might look like direct sales online [60:47] it could also look like intermediate [60:49] intermediatory sales like through a [60:51] distributor and [60:53] so it's funny like value creation [60:56] marketing value delivery and finance all [60:59] of those are the processes where uh [61:01] where money is Flowing out of the [61:03] business you're spending money to do all [61:04] of this analysis uh sales is the part [61:07] where money comes in which makes it [61:09] makes it particularly important and so [61:12] some of the early decisions around sales [61:14] are um how are you going to ask for the [61:17] sale what does the sales process look [61:19] like and are you dealing directly with [61:22] the customer that who is purchasing from [61:24] you or are you dealing with some sort [61:25] sort of independent third party or [61:28] sometimes multiple third parties in the [61:30] process like a retail or distributor [61:33] exactly okay and in order to be [61:36] exceptional at selling my [61:38] candles is there anything that I should [61:40] bear in mind maybe when I'm making the [61:42] candles how I'm packaging the candles [61:44] the way that I'm you know going to those [61:45] retailers or yeah so I think [61:49] um there's a part [61:53] of because sales is kind of in the [61:55] middle the process there's a part of [61:57] sales that intersects with marketing in [61:59] the sense of you're trying to make this [62:01] maximally appealing to get someone to [62:03] give you money for it and so the [62:06] customer understanding how how can how [62:09] can we be persuasive in getting someone [62:12] to say yes this is for me here's my [62:13] money I would like one please there's [62:16] also a part of sales which is somewhat [62:20] neglected which intersects with the [62:22] value delivery part of the process which [62:24] is the point a sale is not just to get a [62:27] customer in an ideal way it's to get a [62:30] happy satisfied customer someone who not [62:33] only purchased the thing that you bought [62:35] but is happy with the thing that they [62:37] bought and is thrilled that they did [62:39] business with you and is planning on [62:40] doing business with you again why is [62:42] that so important well it's relatively [62:45] straightforward to make a sale once um [62:48] usually the first sale is the most [62:50] expensive and so generally a repeat C [62:53] repeat customers are the best customers [62:54] you will ever have they are already know [62:56] you exist they already know your stuff [62:57] is great um you don't have to attract [62:59] their attention again necessarily um and [63:02] depending on what you're selling like [63:04] those repeat customers can the lifetime [63:07] value of a repeat customer can be [63:09] extraordinary and so if you've already [63:11] done the work to get a customer once [63:14] then you should want to keep them happy [63:16] and keep them around for as long as [63:17] humanly possible what's lifetime value [63:20] oh lifetime value this is this is a fun [63:22] one um so lifetime value is the sum [63:26] total of all sales of a customer with a [63:30] business and so imagine um Jack I sell [63:34] jack a candle [63:36] yes [63:39] now Jack how many candles do you uh do [63:42] you burn a [63:43] year seven seven okay so take the The [63:48] Profit that you make per candle so I'm [63:51] selling the candles at $10 and I make $1 [63:53] profit on them yep times s [63:56] okay so the lifetime value well let's [63:58] say we're just over the course of a year [64:00] $7 profit for let's take someone like [64:04] Jill who burns the candle every week wow [64:09] and not just this year she Burns a [64:12] candle every week years and years and [64:15] years running so for Jill 52 time 7 is [64:21] $364 and so she's a much more valuable [64:25] customer than Jack is by a lot and so if [64:30] you had to to to make a choice between [64:33] Jack and Jill like you should choose [64:35] Jill every single time customer service [64:38] matters right it does yeah because [64:40] people many companies see it as like an [64:42] annoyance like I've sold you the [ __ ] [64:44] thing why you email me stop bothering me [64:46] and they treat you like you're a [64:47] nuisance yeah yeah and that's a shame um [64:52] because really like those happy repeat [64:54] customers [64:56] are not just like your high lifetime [64:58] value customers the customers that will [65:00] stick with you keep spending money with [65:02] you they're also a primary source of [65:04] marketing like Word of Mouth marketing [65:06] is all happy customers telling other [65:08] people who might benefit from your [65:10] product that hey here's this wonderful [65:11] thing you should probably check it out [65:14] and so yeah like things like post Sal [65:18] support um sometimes customer [65:20] reactivation so like to your point [65:24] earlier it's a very straightforward [65:26] marketing technique called [65:29] reactivation if you can contact Jack and [65:32] say Hey you bought candles from us last [65:34] year would you like to buy candles from [65:36] us this year and get him to to pick up [65:39] just a couple more more candles like the [65:42] cost of that promotion is potentially [65:44] very small you already know he exists [65:46] you already know that he's purchased um [65:48] can you just get him to do that again um [65:52] those are some of the most effective [65:54] Marketing sales campaigns that you can [65:56] possibly run but it also requires that [65:58] they had a good experience with whatever [66:00] it is that you're offering in the first [66:02] place is there like a sales equation of [66:05] sorts is there like a you know when I'm [66:08] thinking about how to close a deal how [66:10] to sell that candle is there a skill set [66:13] or a framework or a model that I should [66:14] be thinking through when I'm trying to [66:15] sell it to Jack or Jill um there are [66:19] many many Frameworks I think the um the [66:23] biggest most most popular one uh which a [66:26] lot of people get stuck on as the whole [66:27] features versus benefits [66:30] conversation and so [66:33] um in the context of candles Fe a [66:36] features conversation would be is this [66:39] candle is made from 100% soy wax people [66:43] don't necessarily care it's not relevant [66:45] to the reason that people purchase [66:48] candles benefits are the things that [66:50] people that get to those core human [66:52] drives the things that that motivate the [66:54] purchase to begin with [66:56] and [66:58] so one very useful way of thinking about [67:01] this is whenever you're doing any sort [67:03] of marketing or sales you're focusing on [67:06] the benefits the things that you're [67:08] delivering to people the things that are [67:10] enticing and if you talk about features [67:13] at all you use them as reasons to [67:16] believe that you're going to be able to [67:18] deliver the benefits that are promised [67:21] and so um if for example you're you're [67:26] uh taking an an ecologically friendly [67:29] approach to your your candle business um [67:33] the fact that 100% soy is very clean [67:35] burning and environmentally friendly [67:37] might be a reason to believe that this [67:40] benefit is true but it's not the primary [67:42] reason that people are going to purchase [67:44] interesting and a lot of people I guess [67:46] are making the mistake of focusing on [67:47] the features of their product yeah this [67:49] is the the difference [67:52] between um an iPod has one gigabyte High [67:56] Drive hard drive and a thousand songs in [67:59] your pocket a thousand songs in your [68:01] pocket is a benefit the size of the hard [68:03] drive is the feature that enables that [68:08] and why why is it more powerful and [68:10] compelling to the customer to focus on [68:12] the benefit versus the feature is there [68:13] something in our neurology is that a [68:16] word neurology it is a word is that the [68:17] right context in our brain yeah well I [68:20] think this this gets into um some Bier [68:23] psychology things which is people [68:26] generally before making a purchase [68:28] decision imagine what their life is [68:30] going to look like if they go down this [68:33] particular route if I buy this thing if [68:35] I uh sign up for this service if I [68:38] become a member at this club or gym or [68:42] or or whatever um there's there's a a [68:45] mental simulation process that very [68:47] often happens of like may maybe buying a [68:51] new car is a good tangible example of [68:53] this like before you buy the car you did [68:56] the test drive and you imagine like what [68:58] my what would my life be like if I was [69:00] driving this every day if I pull this [69:02] into into my in my driveway where are [69:04] the neighbors [69:05] gonna are they gonna look at me gonna [69:08] think I'm cool you know like there's [69:10] there's this [69:11] like with a little bit of information [69:14] our brains can kind of extrapolate or [69:16] start to predict what is likely to [69:18] happen out into the future to a certain [69:20] extent and this is you know to to to [69:23] some of the things you talk about in [69:24] your book about storytelling this is why [69:27] stories work for marketing and sales it [69:29] helps people engage that part of their [69:31] brain that can that can simulate a [69:34] potential future that looks and feels [69:36] really great and start to anticipate it [69:39] get excited about it [69:41] and like when you're selling a car on [69:44] the sales side of the the [69:47] Spectrum rule number one is get the [69:51] potential customer in the driver seat of [69:52] that car as quickly as possible nothing [69:54] else matters [69:56] you want them to engage in the process [69:59] of driving and imagining as quickly as [70:01] possible because that that's when they [70:03] start to convince themselves that this [70:05] is something that they might want to [70:06] have in their life so anything that you [70:09] can do to engage those kind of [70:11] simulation prediction sort of of [70:13] processes the better if you were to try [70:16] and pin down the very core parts of what [70:20] makes a company [70:22] successful what are what is what are the [70:24] core components of that what are the [70:25] fundamental games at Play in business in [70:28] your view yeah so there I think there [70:32] are a bunch of different ways to answer [70:34] that um we've talked a lot about the [70:37] five parts of every business those are [70:39] the fundamentals of what the employees [70:41] are actually doing MH um in general you [70:45] want to hire people who [70:48] are curious [70:51] engaged excellent [70:53] communicators and are signing up for [70:56] whatever whatever it is the the the [70:59] long-term objective Mission Vision of of [71:02] the company here's what we're doing [71:04] here's why it matters here's exactly who [71:06] we're serving here's why that matters [71:09] here's how we're going to go about doing [71:11] that and from there everything that [71:14] happens within the [71:16] company each of the employees are going [71:18] to be focused on one or more of these [71:21] five essential parts of the business in [71:24] an ideal World they understand all five [71:27] and how they interrelate to each other [71:29] and [71:30] how something that is done in one like [71:33] say the marketing end of side end of [71:36] things might really make a huge [71:38] difference on the value delivery or [71:40] customer service end of [71:42] things if you have all of those pieces [71:44] in place then the question becomes how [71:48] large does this business need to be in [71:51] order to serve its customers at to the [71:53] maximum possible extent in a long [71:55] long-term sustainable [71:57] way and then what level of internal [72:02] organization makes the most sense so [72:04] people can spend most of their time [72:07] doing work related to the five parts of [72:09] of every business and as little time as [72:11] possible managing the rest and so this [72:14] is kind of the the flip side of of some [72:16] of the common failure cases of [72:19] bureaucracy paperwork busy work all of [72:21] these [72:22] things what level of management do you [72:24] need [72:26] um how can you minimize that how can you [72:29] make sure [72:31] that um to me good management is is [72:36] helping remove barriers to people who [72:38] are doing skilled work how can you [72:41] remove as many things from their plate [72:42] as possible so they can focus on the [72:45] parts of the business that are are [72:47] generating the most [72:48] value and [72:50] so there's a lot um I think this was the [72:55] founder of Southwest Airlines herp [72:58] Keller it's like hire for attitude train [73:01] for [73:02] skill I think there's a lot to be said [73:04] for that because because I'm thinking a [73:06] lot about that person who is you know [73:09] again they're starting their candle [73:10] business and they're trying to figure [73:13] out what this game of business [73:16] fundamentally comes down to in 10 years [73:18] from now is it how smart I am is it how [73:22] good I am at assembling a group of smart [73:24] people is it culture is it the vision I [73:26] set is it the product I build is it all [73:28] of these things but if we just start [73:29] with hiring then because this is in my [73:32] experience where people often succeed [73:35] and fail and often where a lot of their [73:37] biases show up that they don't even know [73:39] about sure um how important is [73:44] hiring to building a great business and [73:48] becoming a successful [73:50] entrepreneur complicated answer to that [73:52] okay so [73:55] it can be more or less important [73:57] depending on exactly what you're [73:59] offering I'm offering candles you're [74:01] offering candles yeah so so to me [74:05] like making some assumptions if you're [74:09] handling if you're selling candles [74:11] Direct on the internet with a small [74:13] distribution center and mostly online [74:16] advertising your team is probably going [74:18] to be relatively small and that can be a [74:20] really good thing if you're selling [74:22] candles in distribution and tooling up a [74:25] manufacturing line and uh and going off [74:28] and and calling on all these large [74:29] customers and potentially producing Mass [74:33] Market candles it's a very different [74:35] business operation and so there's a lot [74:38] of [74:39] like understanding the necessities of [74:42] the game that you're playing and then [74:44] matching your hiring exactly to what [74:47] those needs are but not more I think [74:50] about um when I was thinking about this [74:52] candle business that I'm hypothetically [74:54] going to launch one of the things that [74:56] might stop me from launching a candle [74:57] business as it does for many people is [74:59] that there are already lots of [ __ ] [75:00] candles and in every industry you know [75:03] when I hear entrepreneurs or I hear sof [75:05] preneurs which is someone who's got an [75:06] idea on the sofa one of the reasons [75:08] they'll give as to why they've not [75:09] started the business is because they've [75:11] just they've done some market research [75:13] and they've discovered there is already [75:15] someone solving that problem uhhuh and [75:17] then they go no there's no there's no [75:20] money to be made there what role does [75:22] competition play in this whole pitch [75:25] is competition a bad thing a good thing [75:27] a signal that I shouldn't yeah there's [75:30] something really fun here um I talk [75:33] about it in the book I call the iron law [75:35] of the [75:36] market which is um a way of saying that [75:40] markets that don't exist don't care how [75:43] smart you are it was a mark andreon [75:46] quote from way back in his Netscape [75:48] days and it's the whole idea like it's [75:53] actually a really good thing that there [75:54] are a bunch of people selling candles in [75:56] the market because that means that [75:58] there's a large Market of people who are [76:01] willing and able to buy candles it [76:04] validates the the the need it validates [76:07] the existence of the market in the first [76:09] place the markets you need to be really [76:11] careful about are the brand new to the [76:15] nobody has ever seen anything like this [76:17] on the face of the Earth because not [76:21] only do you need to educate and convince [76:24] people you have no idea whether people [76:27] have will purchase this thing that [76:29] you've made this is a story a story that [76:32] I tell in the book um Dean Cayman like [76:35] prolific inventor this was the [76:37] development of the [76:39] segue the like oh yeah balancing scooter [76:42] thing yeah I remember I think this was a [76:44] Time magazine article something like [76:45] that was like this is the this is the [76:47] mystery invention we're not going to [76:49] talk about it yet the mystery invention [76:51] that is going to change the way that [76:53] cities are planned [76:56] the hype for it was absolutely extreme [76:59] and when it came out it turned out that [77:01] people didn't want to buy a $110,000 [77:04] alternative to walking or riding a bike [77:07] and so it's like those like nobody's [77:10] ever done this before can actually be in [77:13] in a weird way a bad [77:15] sign um you want something that like the [77:19] market exists the need is there people [77:21] are excited about it people are looking [77:23] for Solutions and then like liquid death [77:26] if you can come in and do it in a [77:28] fundamentally different way that grabs a [77:29] lot of attention it's a really really [77:32] great promising [77:34] sign but if it's completely brand new [77:37] that's that's more of a a warning sign [77:40] than than many of the sofa preneurs uh [77:43] would would chalk it up to be so how [77:45] should we treat competitors then if I've [77:47] got a competitor should I should I [77:49] attack them should I block them what [77:52] should I do first learn from them [77:55] buy from them become their customer [77:57] learn as much as you can about what they [78:00] do how they do it um customers can be a [78:03] wonderful source of market research [78:06] around what's what's happening in the [78:09] category what's important what's not [78:10] what was your experience competitors [78:12] yeah totally if you if you're starting a [78:14] c Candle Company go out and buy all the [78:18] candles burn them all smell them all [78:20] burn them all line your like buy a [78:23] bookshelf and fill it with candles why [78:26] um because you can learn so much about [78:29] how people do things um look at their [78:32] labeling deconstruct their packaging [78:34] look at their price points where are [78:36] they selling how are they doing their [78:38] online advertising um and the wonderful [78:41] thing is aside from your time and maybe [78:44] a little bit of budget all that market [78:46] research is free you just get to go out [78:49] and and learn from what people are doing [78:51] and then combine that with your own [78:54] research going out and talking to [78:56] customers on your own having your own [78:58] experiences your own ideas and that's [79:01] where you get your unique take your [79:04] taste your Twist on on that particular [79:07] way of of doing things what else do I [79:10] need to be thinking about so I've done [79:11] my market research on the candle [79:13] business we've got the marketing done [79:15] I'm I understand the the sort of sales [79:18] framework that I should be thinking [79:19] through I've bought every candle in the [79:21] market now MH is there anything else [79:24] that is really important to be thinking [79:26] about as I go forward and launch this [79:28] company oh yeah we haven't talked about [79:30] dollars and cents at all yet dollars and [79:32] cents yeah Finance okay so you know as [79:35] you're doing all of so development takes [79:37] money making product uh requires money [79:41] um customer service requires money [79:43] manufactur like all of the you're [79:44] spending a bunch of money making this [79:47] product you have at this point since [79:50] this is a startup you have a price that [79:52] you think is supportable hopefully [79:53] you're collecting pre-orders you're [79:55] getting some Market information about [79:57] like how much you potentially be able to [80:00] make here financial analysis is the part [80:03] where you're taking a look at all of [80:05] these decisions and tradeoffs that that [80:07] you've been [80:08] making where am I spending how [80:11] much if I have to make a choice between [80:14] a or b which one am I am I going to make [80:17] and then the finan finance is basically [80:20] just a systematic way of making [80:22] decisions around monetary [80:25] considerations um in the case of a [80:28] manufacturing business you might have [80:29] raised some some early Capital friends [80:32] family loans investors credit cards [80:35] whatever how much do you have at your [80:37] disposal how much runway do you have if [80:40] you've hired people how many months do [80:42] you have left before you really need to [80:44] be bringing in more than than your [80:46] outflows or else you're going to be in [80:48] trouble very quickly I've got a [80:49] corporate job and I've got $2,000 of [80:51] savings yeah okay so so relatively small [80:54] so then like the financial decision [80:57] making might be how many candles if I [81:00] make a small [81:02] batch like maybe of that $2,000 how much [81:06] am I going to allocate to making the [81:08] actual physical product packaging [81:11] shipping distribution how much am I [81:14] going to set aside for marketing and [81:16] sales sorts of thing that's an [81:17] allocation decision and so your early [81:20] decision making is how much do I have at [81:22] my disposal what are the the critical [81:26] things that need to be met I have to [81:27] have product to sell I have to get [81:30] people's attention somehow I have to be [81:32] able to deliver this when people buy it [81:35] and then you start making lots of [81:37] decisions lots of trade-offs about we're [81:39] going to put this here this here this [81:41] here this here what if you're bad at [81:42] math because a lot of people I think [81:44] they're put off business because they [81:45] hear about gross margin and net profit [81:47] and revenue and they go oh God I was bad [81:49] at math in school so I'm never going to [81:51] be good at business and or I meet a lot [81:54] of Entre especially in the den but just [81:56] in life generally who basically avoid [81:59] the finances of their own business yeah [82:01] because it's just not their strong area [82:03] so I think they think they can just [82:05] maybe they're right because I did meet [82:06] Richard Branson and he told me that you [82:09] know he's not very astute with finances [82:13] and he said to me you just basically [82:14] need to know three numbers in business [82:16] um and he also said to me that he was [82:19] sort of 50 odd years old when he was in [82:21] a meeting where his directors were [82:23] talking about net profit and he had had [82:24] no idea what they were talking about so [82:25] one of them pulled him out of the room [82:26] and drew a picture of a ocean and put a [82:30] net in it and said the fish is in the [82:32] net your net profit and at the time he [82:33] was running one of the biggest groups in [82:34] Europe you just go so what how important [82:36] is this thing called finance and money [82:38] and accounting yeah I mean most of it is [82:41] common sense in simple arithmetic really [82:44] like we're talking addition subtraction [82:45] multiplication division um some of the [82:49] the definitions when you really get down [82:51] to it are relatively straightforward [82:55] um so how much you going to sell it for [82:57] minus how much does it cost to make how [82:59] much does it cost to Market how much [83:01] does it cost to deliver is your profit [83:04] um and then you know how much on the [83:07] things that you have to spend um every [83:11] month so in the case of an online [83:13] business uh your website your shopping [83:16] cart credit card processing all the way [83:18] up to if if you have a physical business [83:21] how much are you spending on salaried [83:23] employees office space electricity [83:26] utilities um there's some very [83:30] straightforward uh Concepts like [83:33] amortization like can you take something [83:36] that would be a a larger pool of money [83:39] how much does that cost you per month as [83:41] an equivalent can you build that into [83:42] your budget how do I learn this stuff if [83:44] I didn't go to school that's why I wrote [83:46] the first LBA okay so yeah can you will [83:50] you tell me about all of this stuff if I [83:51] get this book yes it so the the whole [83:54] idea aidea behind personal MBA was to [83:57] take all of these Concepts like [83:59] amortization like nonprofit all of this [84:03] and explain it in the clearest most [84:07] direct most straightforward plain [84:09] language that I possibly could and is it [84:14] easy it's very straightforward yeah is [84:17] there a a most important number or or a [84:20] most important set of numbers in [84:22] business when it comes to running my [84:24] candle business if I was to really stay [84:26] focused on a particular number or metric [84:29] is there one in particular yeah I think [84:31] so early on the things that you're going [84:34] to want to pay very close attention to [84:37] like early stage entrepreneurship is all [84:39] about is this Su are we to the point of [84:43] keeping this business sustainable can we [84:45] keep the lights on can we keep going and [84:48] is it worth it to me or not and [84:52] so your monthly fix [84:55] overhead like how much am I spending [84:56] every month just to keep the lights on [84:59] everything cleaning yep everything my my [85:02] Gmail account everything yep okay yep so [85:06] what is what are my monthly [85:08] outflows what are my monthly sales [85:11] numbers and it's monthly because usually [85:13] our modern expenses happen monthly rent [85:15] payments happen monthly all that how [85:18] much is coming in product service offer [85:22] sales how much does it cost to deliver [85:25] that in [85:27] total what is my monthly overhead [85:30] everything required to keep the lights [85:31] on [85:33] and at the end of that is net profit [85:37] which is how much do I get to [85:38] keep and is that enough so for example [85:42] if you're if you're working 80 hours a [85:45] week keeping this candle business open [85:48] and you have $5 to your name at the end [85:51] of that month you might be able to [85:53] sustain that for a little bit but at a [85:55] certain point there are going to be some [85:57] very difficult decisions [86:00] around technically we're making money [86:02] but it's just not it's not enough to [86:05] make this sustainable and so some of [86:07] that early number like as as an early [86:09] stage entrepreneur is like what is that [86:12] for you like based on your life based on [86:14] your lifestyle what you hope and dream [86:16] for [86:17] yourself what's the number that makes a [86:20] venturous long-term sustainable like I [86:23] can keep doing this it makes sense for [86:25] right now to keep [86:27] going you focus on getting to that [86:29] number first and then from there you [86:32] have a lot of different [86:34] options one of the mental models that I [86:36] think we share is around this idea of [86:37] experimentation yes absolutely and it's [86:39] one of my favorite subjects because it's [86:41] been a real Revelation for me over the [86:42] last couple of years in business um [86:45] which is really this idea that [86:47] increasing my exp rate of [86:48] experimentation increases my rate of [86:50] success and I think um you know the [86:53] podcast is an example of that for me [86:55] where we've really tried to experiment [86:56] as much as we can and that's led us to [86:59] um the growth of the podcast but when I [87:01] look across the greatest entrepreneurs [87:02] in the world they all seem to eventually [87:04] arrive at this conclusion that [87:06] experimentation really is the path to [87:08] finding the right answers in a world [87:10] where the right answer is changing so [87:11] much yep what is what is for for an [87:13] entrepreneur that's at the very [87:14] beginning for someone that's at the very [87:16] beginning or someone that's in the [87:17] corporate world what is it about [87:19] experimentation that you think is so [87:20] important to understand yeah I think [87:22] experimentation removes the [87:26] pressure [87:27] [Music] [87:29] to know or feel like you know what you [87:33] should be doing every moment of every [87:36] day um I think there's there's a sense [87:39] of like we kind of [87:42] conflate certainty or over certainty [87:46] with competence in a way that's not [87:49] necessarily functional whereas we're all [87:54] very imperfect oracles like we have [87:56] anticipations based on our knowledge our [87:59] experiences um the information that [88:01] we're collecting about the world around [88:03] us and we're all using that all the time [88:05] to try to predict what's going to happen [88:07] next just how our brains work it's what [88:09] our brains are [88:10] for [88:12] and I think there's a sense of we can do [88:17] that to a certain extent to eliminate [88:20] some of the more obvious errors that we [88:23] might make [88:24] but when it the when it comes down to [88:27] making a decision about something we've [88:29] never done before the honest answer to [88:32] will this work [88:34] is I don't know let's find [88:37] out and so there's a certain amount of [88:41] if that's the case if we can't be 100% [88:43] certain what's going to happen if we try [88:46] plan a or plan b or plan [88:49] C then there are a couple of ways of [88:51] approaching that one is is um by working [88:56] through scenarios of like let's just [88:58] imagine what would it look like if we [89:00] chose plan a let's play that out a [89:03] little bit let's try to make [89:04] anticipations about what what might work [89:06] or what might not um and let's compare [89:09] our different Alternatives and and see [89:12] what what looks the best feels the best [89:15] based on our anticipations right [89:18] now that's valuable but it can only go [89:21] so far because it relies on all the the [89:23] knowledge and EXP experience that we've [89:25] collected to date it doesn't account for [89:28] the knowledge and experience that we're [89:29] going to gain through the process of [89:32] making a choice and learning from the [89:35] choice and so one of my very favorite [89:38] mental models this comes from computer [89:41] science and and [89:42] decisionmaking is called the explore [89:45] exploit [89:47] trade-off [89:48] and this might be entertaining it comes [89:51] from decision research uh actually about [89:53] gambling of of all things like imagine [89:57] um imagine you walk into a casino and [90:00] there are a 100 slot machines that you [90:04] get to play for [90:05] free each of the machines has a [90:07] different [90:08] payoff but you don't know which one your [90:11] job is to find the very best [90:15] one how do you go about figuring that [90:20] out you try them all yeah you try them [90:23] so you start collecting information [90:24] right like the thing to do you when you [90:26] walk into the room you have no [90:28] information and so the first phase of [90:31] solving this problem is to explore you [90:34] just try a whole bunch of things and you [90:36] collect information every time you pull [90:39] this slot machine does it pay out or not [90:43] the longer you do this the more [90:45] information you collect and after a [90:47] certain period of time you start to get [90:49] a feel for patterns of some things seem [90:52] to be more Obviously good and other [90:56] things seem to be more obviously bad and [90:59] so over time you shift into the second [91:02] phase which is called the exploitation [91:05] phase so you take the knowledge and [91:07] experience that you have and you use it [91:09] to do the best performing thing that [91:11] you're aware of at the time more often [91:15] so you're playing the higher winning [91:17] slots [91:19] more the key is though the exploration [91:22] phase never stops [91:24] it just gets smaller over time so if [91:27] you're going to play this game optimally [91:28] there's always a certain Subs segment of [91:31] your time that's dedicated to exploring [91:34] to collecting information to trying new [91:37] things and I think this kind of General [91:41] way of going about the like this is what [91:44] early [91:45] career early entrepreneurship looks like [91:49] you're trying a whole bunch of very [91:52] different things sometimes in in [91:54] information about what works and what [91:55] doesn't so in the context of my candle [91:57] business yeah I'm going to I'm going to [92:00] try a bunch of different candles I'm G [92:02] to I'm going to try I think the key part [92:05] is we'll get like try other stuff but [92:08] the the part that I often see people [92:10] Overlook is what you actually said after [92:13] that which was collect information uhuh [92:16] which is you know people will listen to [92:18] this and they'll go C right guys they'll [92:19] come to the corporate office they'll go [92:20] right we're going to try a bunch of new [92:21] stuff but that is just wasted time if [92:23] you're not accurately correct collecting [92:25] the feedback yes because that's the [92:28] power the feedback is the power right [92:30] failure is nothing without feedback yeah [92:32] exactly and that's like so trying the [92:35] new thing and then paying very close [92:36] attention to what happens is the [92:38] valuable part so like in the in the [92:40] context of the candle business like [92:43] maybe you try 10 different scents at the [92:45] very beginning and you do small batches [92:47] of each one and how do I test that in [92:49] the context of a candle business how do [92:50] I test which is the best scent yeah so [92:53] um you could do all sorts of different [92:56] things like um early on you can get [92:59] direct feedback so follow up with people [93:02] ask so this is where the like [93:04] quantitative and qualitative research [93:07] studies can be very very valuable so [93:10] your first source of information is what [93:13] do people buy what's most appealing [93:16] where does where does that kind of [93:17] initial spark go you'll probably see a [93:19] distribution if you try 10 different [93:21] scents you you'll probably see a couple [93:23] very clearly stand out um and then [93:26] contacting customers directly to to [93:29] follow up what did you like what did you [93:31] not like um asking quite like we were [93:34] talking earlier about how did it smell [93:36] when it was lit how did it smell when it [93:38] was not lit like all of those things [93:40] spending a little bit of of time digging [93:44] into it in a deliberate systematic way [93:48] is how you get that information could I [93:49] do this before I even start selling [93:51] these candles I could I get 10 flavors [93:54] um put blank labels on all of them and [93:57] also try and create a situation where [93:58] you can't see it because again I'm [94:00] trying to limit the variable so I don't [94:01] want you to make your a decision based [94:02] on color put you in a pitch black room [94:06] this is actually what a lot of companies [94:07] do companies I've invested in called hu [94:09] does this they have these pitch black [94:10] rooms at their HQ which they invite [94:13] people into and these are like sensory [94:16] deprivation rooms I guess because you [94:17] there's no light there's no nothing you [94:19] can't see anything and in the context of [94:22] candles get 10 strangers off the street [94:25] to smell them all maybe 100 yep and just [94:27] to leave some scores yeah and then get [94:30] them to smell them when they're lit and [94:31] take that data as well you can [94:33] absolutely do that that's crazy it seems [94:34] so obvious but people don't do this [94:36] stuff yeah and it like it doesn't take [94:38] that much more work you're actually [94:40] limiting your risk because you're not [94:42] committing to you know one big batch of [94:44] something that you think will work yeah [94:46] you just experimenting a little bit more [94:48] broadly collecting some information and [94:50] allowing that information to guide your [94:53] future to decisions you talk about this [94:55] thing in your book called goal's law [94:58] yeah what's gal's law G's law is the [95:02] idea that any complex system essentially [95:06] evolved from a simpler system that [95:09] worked so if you want to create a [95:11] complex system that [95:13] works the easiest best thing to do is to [95:16] start with a simple system and then [95:18] build it up from [95:20] there and so this is like [95:23] when we're talking about this [95:25] hypothetical candle business we're not [95:27] talking about the multinational [95:30] distribution version of the candle [95:31] business quite yet there's a simpler [95:34] version of that business that must exist [95:38] in order for it to ever reach the level [95:40] of complexity and success that would [95:42] allow that to actually operate in the [95:44] world and [95:47] so one of the the reminders of of G's [95:50] law is that it's actually okay to start [95:54] simple straightforward strip it down [95:58] focus on the essentials start there [96:01] because every additional bit of [96:03] complexity needs to serve some sort of [96:06] purpose to justify its costs either [96:09] direct cost or time attention [96:11] opportunity [96:12] cost and so I think you to our earlier [96:17] conversation [96:19] sometimes complexity can be seen as as a [96:22] bit of a weird [96:24] status signal like I'm fancy I'm [96:27] sophisticated I think the more [96:29] sophisticated thing to do is to start [96:33] simple and keep it simple on purpose and [96:36] then make every additional bit of [96:37] complexity earn earn its way because [96:41] complexity isn't value this is I guess [96:42] this the the thing we get wrong we think [96:44] if we take a candle and we add some neon [96:46] lights to it and we add some I don't [96:48] know like a metal lid to the top of it [96:50] and then we add you can charge your [96:51] phone using the candle sure we think [96:54] because we've added more stuff people [96:56] are going to Value it more therefore [96:58] they're going to pay for it more yeah [97:00] but that's not necessarily how the world [97:02] works exactly you're going to screw up [97:04] so many things by adding those features [97:06] you know the best example I can give is [97:07] this whoop on my wrist which I'm an [97:09] investor in and Ambassador for so I'm [97:11] not Shilling it here but it's just a [97:13] something that always comes to mind [97:14] where you ask the founder of why you [97:16] didn't add [97:17] a watch to it why you didn't add the [97:20] time because you could simply just put [97:22] the time on there sure but he said [97:23] adding an additional feature changes the [97:25] frame and that really made me understand [97:28] this idea that more isn't more in as it [97:30] relates to value of products because the [97:32] minute you add the time to a whoop it [97:34] becomes a watch and then people have [97:35] these whole new set of expectations of a [97:37] watch it's a fashion item etc etc [97:41] interesting I've never heard that that [97:42] term before gouls law yeah we like it's [97:45] instructive that we're talking about [97:47] candles and not about some complex [97:49] mechanical device that you would bolt on [97:51] to a a building's a HB system to deliver [97:55] scent to the entire space right like [97:58] don't start there maybe start with a [98:00] candle and then at a certain point if it [98:02] makes sense to move in a in a direction [98:04] based on what your customers are telling [98:05] you that's fantastic but but keeping it [98:08] simple from the beginning is is the way [98:09] to go once upon a time if you had a [98:12] business idea it was exceptionally [98:15] difficult to get going but now in the [98:17] age of Shopify it is exceptionally easy [98:21] as many of you will know Shopify are [98:23] sponsor of this podcast if you don't [98:25] know Shopify it's an exceptionally [98:27] simple web platform for anybody that's [98:29] got an idea that wants to transact on a [98:31] global scale so things like these [98:33] conversation cards which we sell we've [98:35] sold using Shopify and it only took us a [98:38] couple of clicks to get going so why did [98:41] we choose Shopify for a number of [98:42] reasons but I think one of the big ones [98:44] which goes unappreciated is their [98:45] checkout system converts 36% better [98:48] compared to other platforms and here's [98:51] what I'm going to do to remove the cost [98:52] for you if you go to shopify.com Bartlet [98:56] you'll be able to try Shopify for [98:58] $1 a month I've seen Shopify completely [99:02] change people's lives and for many of [99:04] you I think it could change yours we [99:07] haven't spoken about this book though [99:10] first 20 hours yeah the first 20 hours [99:13] how to learn [99:14] anything and you have a TED Talk don't [99:16] you which was crazy yeah crazy crazy I [99:20] don't know if it's hit 40 million views [99:23] yet but PR pretty close if not 40 [99:26] million views on a TED talk about the [99:29] first 20 hours how to learn anything [99:32] yeah why why did it do so well I think [99:36] for a couple of different reasons [99:37] because that's one of the best view TED [99:39] talks of all time yes that's crazy yes I [99:42] did a TED Talk nobody nobody watched it [99:44] I did like T talk are fun they're very [99:47] fun [99:49] um yeah so so the T talk for the first [99:52] 20 hours did did very well and I think I [99:54] think part of it has to do [99:57] with it's something we all have in [99:59] common right like wanting or needing to [100:02] learn [100:04] something necessary useful fun cool not [100:09] really having a whole lot of time like [100:11] we're we're busy people we're busy [100:14] culturally um and so there's a bit of a [100:17] conflicting desire there of like yeah I [100:19] want I want to learn this but I I don't [100:22] have a whole a lot of capacity to spare [100:26] here um and then the the Genesis of the [100:30] book was was digging into some of the [100:33] psychology research that I that I [100:35] uncovered in the process of working on [100:36] personal MBA which was all about [100:39] learning new [100:40] things [100:42] and learning that the first few [100:47] hours of acquiring or learning any [100:50] particular [100:51] skill are [100:53] validated by research to be both the [100:56] most effective and the most efficient so [100:59] like your rate of improvement per time [101:01] of of uh or per unit of time and energy [101:05] invested at the very beginning of [101:07] Learning something new is extremely [101:10] high and so the question that that [101:14] sparked the research for the first 20 [101:15] hours is is there a way that we can take [101:19] advantage of that consciously like is [101:22] there a way that we can [101:24] be very conscious and deliberate about [101:27] how we approach the process of learning [101:28] something new to [101:32] make to to to reap the maximum rewards [101:36] from that early stage of learning [101:39] something that you're not familiar with [101:41] and how good can we get in in that early [101:45] early window and in my research you can [101:49] go from from knowing absolutely nothing [101:53] about [101:54] something to being reasonably good in [101:59] much less time than than you would [102:02] expect so in my experience that's about [102:04] 20 hours of focused deliberate practice [102:08] so call it 40 minutes a day for about a [102:10] month but but the narrative out on the [102:13] market is that you have to do 10,000 [102:15] hours I mean this is everyone uses this [102:17] phrase in in society they say have you [102:19] done your 10,000 [102:21] hours so you're telling me it's actually [102:23] 20 hours is the key I'm saying different [102:26] goals based on different objectives so [102:31] um K Andrew Ericson was the researcher [102:33] behind the the 10,000 hour [102:36] rule and I think what's important to to [102:39] understand about that as a general [102:43] guideline is those studies were focused [102:47] on [102:48] Mastery of very competitive performance [102:52] oriented activities so call it so the [102:55] original studies were done um with [102:58] correlating practice hours to how high a [103:01] position do you have in like the first [103:05] violin and an orchestra sort of thing [103:07] and there was a correlation between like [103:09] how much do you practice how good to you [103:12] get that's all well and good and yeah [103:15] generally speaking the more deliberate [103:16] practice that that you have on on a [103:18] certain thing the the better you are [103:20] that is a true [103:21] thing to me [103:25] me I think it's valuable to shift the [103:29] spotlight from Mastery which is very [103:34] flashy very high status people who are [103:37] extremely skilled at things have a lot [103:38] of energy and attention around them [103:40] that's [103:41] great [103:43] um the type of skill acquisition that [103:46] most of us do most often throughout our [103:48] entire [103:50] lifespan is figure out how to do [103:52] something new for the first time like [103:54] dejing for me exactly yeah so how do I [103:57] do that then know you talk about these [103:59] 10 major principles of Rapid skill [104:01] acquisition sure where I can learn [104:03] anything in 20 hours what are the most [104:05] important elements of this that I need [104:06] to know about if I'm someone who maybe [104:08] let's in the context of business has [104:10] never started a business in my life has [104:11] never run one before but I do want to [104:14] learn how to do it yeah the best way to [104:17] approach [104:18] this is [104:21] um there's a set of five recommendations [104:24] that that that go in [104:26] order and the first is like deciding [104:30] exactly what it is that you're trying to [104:33] do so in my experience like a lot of [104:36] people when they at the beginning of the [104:37] process of learning how to do [104:40] something the goal is way too big like [104:42] it's way too much way too soon [104:46] um whereas something something specific [104:51] concrete and approachable [104:54] is a way better place to start so um [104:58] dejing an entire set at a crazy music [105:00] festival is not the place to set the [105:02] goal right at the very beginning [105:05] it's I want to do my first song for [105:09] myself for me it was like I want to mix [105:11] that song into that song without it [105:13] sounding [ __ ] totally exactly and that's [105:15] a great place to start because then it's [105:16] like okay this is a concrete specific [105:18] thing I know exactly what it looks like [105:23] you probably had some experience [105:25] listening to music of this type knowing [105:27] when things go well and when they when [105:29] they don't go well so you had a little [105:30] bit of like taste context [105:34] perspective and so deciding like okay my [105:37] early goal is to do this one specific [105:41] thing it's the first failure mode [105:44] because most people don't decide on that [105:47] concrete specific thing it's way way too [105:49] way too nebulous there's not enough to [105:52] work with so deciding is the first [105:54] part from [105:57] there most of the things that we we talk [106:01] about as skills [106:03] aren't single skills they're actually [106:06] bundles of smaller subskills that are [106:09] all important and you use in in in in [106:14] combination and so I'm not familiar with [106:17] DJ DJing so you can fill in the blanks [106:20] for me but like what were some of the [106:22] smaller things that you needed to learn [106:24] how to do as a thing to be able to like [106:28] mix one song into another well you need [106:29] to know music because music has [106:32] different I'm really going to but you so [106:33] DJs are literally going to laugh at me [106:34] in their WhatsApp groups but um [106:37] different beats per minute so every song [106:39] has a different beat per minute so you [106:40] need to learn about the different beats [106:42] per minute so you can merge them um [106:44] every song has a different key I think [106:46] that's kind of what they call it a key [106:47] so you have like an a a b a c and you [106:49] need to know that because before you [106:51] even get to mixing them in that's quite [106:53] important um so that's the like the [106:55] music side of thing then there's the [106:56] like the hardware itself which is [106:58] knowing how you see two songs coming at [107:00] the same time so you need to learn about [107:01] the hardware before you can mix two [107:02] songs together and then [107:06] um yeah actually interestingly in the [107:09] first hour of lessons I was expecting to [107:11] jump on the decks but the first hour of [107:12] lessons that I had was all about what is [107:14] music totally it was like an and how [107:17] does music sound good and this kind of [107:18] like eight bar thing that music goes in [107:21] so it was all about music itself I had [107:23] to start over there whereas I was [107:24] expecting to jump on the decks yes that [107:26] is a brilliant example of deconstruction [107:29] it's exactly what we're talking about so [107:31] the skill is not dejing itself it's [107:35] learning about Keys learning about Tempo [107:37] learning about transitions learning [107:38] about all of these smaller things that [107:40] you need to use in concert in order to [107:43] use them together to do this more [107:45] complex thing that you want to do so a [107:47] good teacher like the value of a good [107:48] teacher is they can help you with that [107:50] deconstruction like what are all the [107:51] little subcomponents that I need and [107:55] then the next layer down from that is [107:58] once you've deconstructed into the [107:59] smaller parts that's when you start to [108:02] do some research of which of these parts [108:05] are more important or less important [108:07] what should I focus on first what can [108:09] wait until later and so like Tempo and [108:14] musical Keys might be really important [108:17] and so it might make sense to to start [108:20] the process there let's get that really [108:22] solid we can wait for the hardware we [108:24] can wait for the plugins we can wait for [108:27] you know all of these things that comes [108:29] later get this stuff down solid first [108:31] nobody wants to wait yeah you know you [108:34] know what I mean that's the thing [108:36] like I [108:37] think there's an element to which that's [108:41] true there's also an element [108:44] to waiting here going about it in a [108:48] little bit more of a deliberate [108:50] fashion is what gives us an Advantage as [108:54] adult Learners like we can approach what [108:57] we're doing in in a strategic way we can [109:00] we can focus our time and attention on [109:01] the things that are going to have the [109:03] highest rewards first and so just a [109:06] little bit of impulse control of like [109:09] I'm gonna hold off on the buttons for a [109:11] couple hours to learn a little bit of [109:13] this first like that's where you [109:16] start figuring [109:18] out the inflection points in the skill [109:21] like the the thing that if you can just [109:24] wrap your head around this you can get a [109:26] huge Improvement in a very short period [109:28] of time and then the trick on the [109:30] research phase and this is the one that [109:32] I struggle with a lot because I like [109:33] research it's fun for me I can get stuck [109:38] here and so the trick is to [109:41] do just enough research to give [109:46] yourself context understanding what [109:49] you're looking for an idea of what it [109:51] looks like to do well or to not do well [109:55] and from [109:56] there you do just enough to know a [110:00] little bit of what you're doing and then [110:02] you actually start the focused [110:04] deliberate practice component because [110:06] that's where the skill is actually built [110:07] the skill is not built in research a lot [110:09] of people seem to get stuck on that [110:10] research part because they are you know [110:13] that people call them in culture [110:14] procrastinators but I had a conversation [110:16] with Nel and he said we're discomfort [110:18] avoiding creatures and he said whenever [110:19] you find yourself [110:21] procrastinating um it's basically [110:23] because there's discomfort associated [110:25] with the task at hand yeah so I had a [110:26] conversation with someone very close to [110:28] me recently actually yesterday and um in [110:31] our conversation they've been meaning to [110:32] do this online project for a long long [110:35] time for two years now and they've just [110:37] done everything but this online project [110:39] and when we kind of deconstructed it as [110:41] you said it was really [110:42] because they don't feel competent yeah [110:45] in several of the individual pieces so [110:47] they're just like researching themselves [110:49] to death and Mak taking no action [110:52] absolutely this is one of the biggest [110:55] the biggest barriers to learning as an [110:58] adult um adult Learners hate to feel [111:02] stupid we hate to to feel over our head [111:05] that we don't know what we're doing that [111:07] we're going to look bad in front of [111:08] others that there's some idealized skill [111:12] level that would represent success and [111:14] your early attempts look nothing like [111:17] that um there was an interesting study [111:21] that was done [111:23] about changes in um in artistic ability [111:30] and inclination over the human lifespan [111:33] and so when when you ask a bunch of [111:36] young [111:38] children are you an [111:40] artist every one of them answerers yes [111:43] yeah I create art that's it's what I do [111:46] and there's a certain threshold and it [111:47] usually happens around like the the [111:49] Middle grades uh junior [111:53] highish where people will start to say [111:56] like no this not something that I do and [111:59] there's a certain amount of [112:00] self-consciousness that develops in the [112:02] process of becoming an adult where you [112:06] can start to recognize that the [112:09] difference between what you can do and [112:12] what you want to do can be somewhat [112:14] extreme yeah and that self-consciousness [112:17] can be an active barrier to to getting [112:19] started in the first place um so by comp [112:22] comparison as well isn't it really [112:23] because yeah like comparison with other [112:25] people and then also comparison with [112:27] ourselves MH um so with other people [112:30] like early stages of skill acquisition [112:33] if you're comparing yourself to the [112:34] Masters in hours one two and three you [112:36] are not doing yourself any favors at all [112:39] um and then even [112:41] like I think that's a little bit easier [112:44] to avoid because I have only golfed a [112:47] couple times in my [112:49] life comparing myself to Tiger Woods [112:51] doesn't feel like even like conceptually [112:53] appropriate thing for me to do that [112:55] that's that's not difficult the harder [112:58] thing is comparing yourself to the other [113:01] person who has not golfed very much but [113:04] somehow hit a shot straight or or [113:07] whatever or like it feels like this [113:10] shouldn't be so hard for me why is this [113:13] so hard for me and then like the self [113:15] recrimination feedback loop starts and [113:19] so um I talk about in the in the first [113:21] 20 hours [113:23] I call this the frustration barrier and [113:26] so generally speaking rough rule of [113:29] thumb hours 1 to 10 are brutal [113:34] emotionally speaking and so those th [113:38] that's the period of time where um [113:41] you're really frustrated things make [113:43] very little sense you're like I don't [113:46] know what a key is let alone a key [113:49] change what's a beat per minute and like [113:53] all of those self-consciousness circuits [113:55] are fully online fully firing [113:58] and um no matter how much you want [114:01] something those those first few hours [114:05] can be pretty brutal it's where most [114:07] people quit as well I guess yeah and and [114:08] that's why like it's an it's an [114:10] emotional management problem and so the [114:13] way to get around that also the way to [114:16] get out of research mode into doing mode [114:19] and this is this is where where the [114:21] title the first 20 hours comes from from [114:23] the first 20 hours refers to a [114:26] pre-commitment which is a very useful [114:29] piece of Behavioral [114:31] psychology that says that if you [114:34] pre-commit to taking a certain action [114:37] either a certain amount of times or [114:39] within a certain period of time either [114:41] to yourselves or ideally to other people [114:44] you're far more likely to actually [114:45] follow through on the doing of the thing [114:48] and so what I found is that in learning [114:52] a new skill making a pre-commitment that [114:55] no matter what I'm going to spend 20 [114:59] hours doing this thing I might be [115:04] terrible this might be really [115:06] uncomfortable I might hate it I might [115:09] never do this again but no matter what I [115:12] care about this thing that I want to [115:15] learn enough that I'm going to invest at [115:18] least 20 hours of my life figuring out [115:21] if this is good if this works for me if [115:23] this is beneficial you said something [115:25] there which I think is key which is sure [115:27] you said this matters to me enough yes [115:30] that feels like it's a prerequisite [115:31] something that we really need to be [115:32] clear on before we even start yeah you [115:35] know because without that part you you [115:37] refer to it in your 10 major principles [115:39] of Rapid skill acquisition as choosing a [115:41] lovable project exactly yeah what does [115:43] that matter well it's because we're busy [115:46] it's because we don't have infinite time [115:48] energy and attention to do all the [115:50] things that might look feel sound fun or [115:54] interesting to us and [115:56] so there there needs to be at least some [115:59] minimum threshold of yeah this is [116:03] important to me to make some trade-offs [116:05] in other areas of of my life or [116:09] to um not watch that that movie or you [116:14] know not relax on on social media this [116:17] night I'm going to carve out some time [116:18] in my day and actually make this a [116:20] priority to sit down and do the work and [116:24] generally speaking I found that for [116:26] myself if I'm not willing to make the [116:29] pre-commitment to put at least 20 hours [116:31] into it that's a pretty good indication [116:33] that it is not important enough for me [116:36] to to invest time and energy and in the [116:38] first place we've been through most of [116:40] them there so number one is choose a [116:41] lovable project number two is focus your [116:43] energy on one skill at a time we said [116:45] that one number three is Define your [116:46] target performance level we talked about [116:48] that as well number four is deconstruct [116:49] the skill and subskills number five is [116:51] obtain critical tools which I guess is [116:54] the tools you need to do the practice [116:55] right yeah that's um kind of a subset of [116:58] removing barriers to practice okay and [117:00] so the classic example here is um so [117:04] many people in the world want to learn [117:05] how to play the [117:06] guitar and so the thing to not do is buy [117:09] a guitar and leave it in the case and [117:12] put it in uh a closet upstairs far away [117:17] because that just requires too much time [117:20] energy thought attention of like [117:21] remembering where it is going upstairs [117:23] grabbing the guitar getting it out of [117:25] the case getting all ready the best [117:27] thing that you can do is just make it [117:29] really really easy remove all the [117:31] friction from it get a little stand put [117:33] it right next to you know your living [117:35] room chair or couch where it's visible [117:37] Insight all you need to do is reach over [117:40] grab it and start it just makes it more [117:43] likely you're actually going to sit down [117:44] and do the work I think we've covered [117:46] all 10 there the last one is emphasize [117:49] quantity and speed yes yes mean so early [117:54] on in in the [117:57] process there's a tendency to like want [118:01] to do [118:03] it perfectly [118:05] sooner versus do it doing it in [118:08] perfectly more is actually more [118:10] beneficial and so in this case you for [118:13] for your [118:14] DJing mixing a lot of songs one to the [118:17] other is going to teach you a lot more [118:20] than just hyperfocusing on what song A [118:22] into song b and I'm going to work until [118:25] this is perfect you're just not going to [118:27] learn as much it's the variety the [118:29] exploration and the variety of [118:31] circumstances will teach you more about [118:34] what it looks and feels and sounds like [118:37] than trying to get too perfect on one [118:39] specific thing too quickly so like going [118:42] back to the the playing guitar thing [118:44] like get a bunch of tabs and learn how [118:46] to play a whole bunch of different songs [118:49] not super well because it's the [118:52] commonalities that you learn between the [118:54] different experiences those are the [118:56] things that really tune you into what's [118:59] really important the foundations of the [119:01] exactly like yeah what's a chord so for [119:05] what's a chord how do you change from [119:06] one chord to another [119:10] um tracking beats Tempo things like that [119:14] like those are the foundational skills [119:16] that apply across pieces of music and so [119:19] if you practice those first across a [119:21] wide variety of things that's just [119:23] optimizing that early practice around [119:25] things that will stick that you you'll [119:26] use a lot is there anything about the [119:29] subjec of learning and the first 20 [119:31] hours that we've not discussed that you [119:32] think is especially important to close [119:36] off on if someone is really that they [119:37] want to learn a new skill and we're [119:39] thinking about where they are and where [119:43] they want to get to is there anything [119:44] else that you think they need to know [119:45] that we haven't covered I think that [119:48] this duv Tales a little bit with our [119:50] conversation around pon [119:53] spend more of your time doing weird cool [119:56] things like having that that exploration [119:59] budget of of really just like the [120:02] further a field you go the more things [120:08] you discover you'll find some surprising [120:11] commonalities that can be very [120:13] interesting and very cool um we were [120:16] talking about Apple [120:18] earlier one of the primary design in [120:22] irations for for the Apple Computing [120:24] system was Steve Jobs taking a random [120:26] calligraphy class in [120:28] college and it's not something that you [120:31] would put together in some sort of [120:34] obvious way but it was an important [120:38] enough influence of being able to take [120:41] some part of life and like apply it in a [120:44] different way in a different context to [120:46] another thing that that unlocked a lot [120:47] of value for a lot of people and so [120:52] for me like in in in the larger [120:56] sense I think it's just really valuable [120:58] to take a step back and think about like [121:03] what might I want to experience or what [121:06] might I want to learn how to do at some [121:09] point in my life just make a list could [121:11] and it can be I think self-editing here [121:14] is is not the way to go just like make a [121:17] list of all the things that that appeal [121:19] to you for whatever reason and then the [121:23] benefit of of a an approach like the [121:26] first 20 hours is it gives you a way to [121:30] make actually going about doing that [121:32] thing look and feel far more [121:35] approachable than it otherwise might be [121:38] when you said the thing about Apple [121:39] there in Steve Jobs going to that [121:40] typography calligraphy class it made me [121:43] it made me realize that in life there [121:45] really is no such thing as a waste of [121:46] time no there's really not because we [121:49] you know we think of oh chilling on [121:50] Netflix as a waste of time [121:52] but you can uncover something about [121:55] story arc from watching a movie that [121:57] makes you bring that into your creative [121:59] work or into an advertising campaign and [122:02] you know I think some actually it's [122:04] interestingly because if you think about [122:05] that example you gave of Steve Jobs in [122:07] that typography class had he just gone [122:09] to computer programming lessons yeah [122:11] about how to make software or Hardware [122:14] he wouldn't have stumbled across the [122:17] brilliant sort of insight that design [122:19] and typography and calligraphy really [122:20] really matters so these devices wouldn't [122:22] be so amazing so sometimes the most [122:25] valuable skills or inspiration we can [122:27] acquire exists clearly outside of the [122:30] bubble that we work in [122:33] totally Josh we have a closing tradition [122:36] on this podcast where the last guest [122:37] leaves a question for the next guest not [122:38] knowing who they're going to leave it [122:39] for oh excellent that's fun and the last [122:42] question that was left for you is oh [122:44] they finally got some finally someone [122:45] with good handwriting um I can read this [122:48] one without stuttering when you look [122:50] back on your life are there more things [122:53] you regret doing or regret not doing [122:56] please give some [122:59] examples wow they they went heavy [123:01] hitting on this one a stitch up I love [123:03] this stitches up the next cast no it's [123:05] good [123:10] um I think I [123:14] have more mistakes of commission things [123:19] I've [123:20] done than m Stakes of omission or or [123:24] regrets so generally speaking like if I [123:27] can anticipate that I'm going to regret [123:29] something I just try not to do that [123:31] thing in the first place [123:34] um [123:36] and I think some of those things like [123:38] can can fall into like daydreamy sorts [123:43] of oh what would have happened if I oh [123:47] yeah like hindsight yeah I mean almost [123:49] pure hindsight bias yeah which is also [123:51] one of the things I talk about in [123:52] personal NBA like it's a it's a thing so [123:56] um for me it [123:58] is like a lot of those regrets revolve [124:03] around um decisions that I made that [124:06] didn't work out [124:09] um [124:11] relationships um I have I have two kids [124:14] and the process of of raising kids is uh [124:19] hopefully informed trial and error but [124:21] like fundamentally trial and error and [124:24] um yeah that's part of the learning and [124:27] the experimentation too of just [124:31] like sometimes you have to make the call [124:33] on the Fly and sometimes you don't know [124:36] whether the call you made is is the [124:38] right one the best [124:40] one um do you have a mental model or [124:43] framework for decisions generally I [124:47] really like my fundamental way of [124:49] approaching decisions [124:53] is scenario planning like I really try [124:56] to think through all right what are my [124:58] options here how much detail can I [125:02] create around each of these potential [125:05] options what are the trade-offs are [125:07] there any really like hard trade-offs [125:10] things that must be accounted for and [125:13] then just really TR like in my current [125:14] understanding try to play out what's [125:16] likely to have happen down each of those [125:18] paths and then pick the one that seems [125:21] the best or the most appropriate given [125:23] the [125:24] circumstances Josh thank you thank you [125:26] for writing two exceptionally important [125:28] books and really you know I I'm a real [125:30] big Advocate and believer that we need [125:32] more entrepreneurs in the world but more [125:34] people just generally that understand [125:35] business even if they're going to [125:36] continue to work in corporate [125:37] environments because I think that's net [125:39] benefit Ben I think that's net [125:42] beneficial to Society at large our [125:45] society but also to individuals because [125:46] it empowers them to have more [125:48] optionality in their lives to be able to [125:49] make more choices about what they want [125:50] to do where they want to spend their [125:52] time and societies run on businesses you [125:55] know what we're doing now is a business [125:57] um the way that I'll get home tonight is [125:59] a business so understanding the [126:01] fundamentals the levers that are running [126:03] Society I think is only net positive for [126:05] everybody and that's exactly what the [126:06] personal NBA does it deconstructs what [126:09] businesses are and it helps us [126:11] understand the world around us and the [126:13] incentive structures of the world around [126:14] us in a really really empowering way so [126:16] thank you for writing a book that really [126:18] speaks to those people that maybe can't [126:20] afford to go and get a very expensive [126:21] ensive NBA one of those top schools um [126:23] but gives them an equally if not more [126:25] important understanding of business than [126:27] anything ever could it's an exceptional [126:29] book and I applaud you for writing it so [126:31] thank you thank you very much that was [126:32] very kind to say and I appreciate it [126:36] [Music] [126:51] a