Batnick and Carlson Point to Top 45 Million US Households Driving $15 Trillion Spend

Batnick与Carlson指出：美国排名前4500万户家庭拉动15万亿美元支出 全美排名前三分之一的家庭年支出达15万亿美元——相当于德国GDP的三倍——他们在固定利率房贷的保护下未受高利率冲击，尽管部分板块回调且债券收益率高企，仍支撑了股市整体的韧性。 Michael Batnick与Ben Carlson分析了一种罕见的分化行情：半导体和人工智能硬件股大幅下挫，而软件和防御类股却强势上涨。他们深入探讨了韩国极端的散户杠杆现象、固定利率房贷对美国消费者消费能力的影响，以及Google持续攀升的AI资本开支。此外，两位主持人还讨论了私募市场向散户基金扩张的趋势、流媒体发展动态、IMAX硬件局限性，并分享了关于退休庆祝、家庭旅行和肠胃炎康复的个人趣事。 标普500指数虽维持在历史高点附近，但市场内部出现剧烈分化，半导体及硬件龙头遭遇大幅回撤，资金有序轮动至软件与防御性板块，呈现出去泡沫化的健康调整。 (1:21) 标普500远期市盈率回落至约19.5倍，反映出强劲的企业盈利增长正在超越股价涨幅，推动美股估值在未发生全面崩盘的前提下逐步降温。 (8:18) 尽管市场因财政赤字与通胀担忧而普遍看空债市，但当前5%的债券收益率相比零利率时期已提供了坚实的安全边际，且60/40经典组合表现依然稳健。 (15:22) 得益于锁定在4.3%低位的长期固定房贷，美国家庭每年节省约3000亿美元利息支出；全美前4500万高收入家庭年支出近15万亿美元，成为支撑经济韧性的核心支柱。 (26:44) 谷歌等科技巨头激进扩张AI基础设施令自由现金流承压，尽管营收强劲增长，但投资者对持续膨胀的CapEx资本开支持怀疑态度并引发股价回撤。 (30:58)

Hosts Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson argue that beneath resilient headline equity indices, markets are undergoing an orderly debubbling of momentum leaders alongside rising investor skepticism toward Big Tech capital expenditure. Meanwhile, broader economic resilience is supported by unprecedented wealth and disposable income concentration among the top tier of American households. Sector Rotation and Orderly Market Debubbling (3:08) Beneath calm headline index performance, a historic divergence has emerged between beaten-down hardware and semiconductor names and advancing software and defensive assets. Single-day market action saw semiconductors fall 4.0% while software jumped 3.3%—a split Michael Batnick characterizes as exceptionally rare since 1989. Severe pullbacks have struck trailing momentum leaders, including drawdowns of 46% for SanDisk, 34% for Western Digital, and 27% for Micron, even as SanDisk remains up roughly 2,900% over the trailing year. When Nvidia dropped 5% in a single session, the equal-weighted index still advanced 40 basis points. Batnick and Ben Carlson view this dynamic not as systemic stress, but as an orderly rotation—dubbed a 'Rasputin market' for its refusal to roll over. The S&P 500 has held within 2% of all-time highs as money rotates into defensive categories like consumer staples. Furthermore, S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings multiples have cooled naturally to roughly 19.5x—modestly above the 18.0x recorded at the 'Liberation Day' lows—driven by upward revisions in corporate earnings rather than collapsing valuations. The $15 Trillion Consumer Spending Engine (29:21) The perceived resilience of the U.S. consumer is heavily anchored by the top third of the domestic population. Ben Carlson highlights that annual spending from the top 45 million U.S. households approaches $15 trillion, a sum equivalent to three times the size of Germany's entire economy and approximately 70% of China's gross domestic product. This spending power is reinforced by structural housing dynamics. According to the Carlyle Group, 50 million U.S. households carry fixed mortgages at an effective average rate of 4.3% versus prevailing new mortgage rates of 6.5% to 6.6%, effectively creating a $300 billion annual disposable income windfall relative to floating-rate economies. Card spending data from American Express reflects this insulated demand, reporting overall U.S. consumer spending up 11% year-over-year, propelled by a 30% surge in travel and entertainment. Spending growth is heavily skewed by age, climbing 14% among Millennials and 40% among Gen Z. At the same time, wealth disparities are poised to reinforce this divide: a Visa study on the impending $36 trillion Great Wealth Transfer projects that 75% of transferred assets will flow to heirs already in the top 10%, with $28 trillion expected to be saved or invested rather than spent on goods. AI Capital Spending Meets Investor Pushback (30:58) While macroeconomic consumption remains durable, public markets are exhibiting mounting friction over aggressive artificial intelligence infrastructure buildouts. Google delivered strong top-line numbers—highlighted by Google Cloud growing 82% and YouTube revenue rising 24%—yet reported negative free cash flow as leadership insisted that AI demand necessitates continuous infrastructure deployment. In response, Google shares tumbled between 18% and 20%, signaling an emerging standoff where public investors demand capital discipline while tech leadership prioritizes long-term capacity. This skepticism toward late-stage tech valuations extends to private markets. Ben Carlson cites data from Torsten Slok showing that initial public offerings post-2019 consistently trail broad market indices, averaging a 30% decline relative to the market over their first 12 months. Publicly tracked shares of SpaceX recently endured a 45% peak-to-trough decline, falling in 14 of 18 July sessions. This slide prompts Batnick to dispute billionaire investor Ron Baron's thesis that SpaceX can compound 20x to 30x over the coming decade from a $1.5 trillion baseline, which Batnick notes would exceed total U.S. GDP. Pervasive Bond Bearishness and Retail Leverage (15:22) Carlson points out a near-universal bearish consensus on fixed income among market commentators, driven by concerns over persistent inflation, potential interest rate hikes, and fiscal dominance from government deficits. Five-year total returns across fixed income have been painful: the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and 3–7 Year Treasuries have delivered flat returns, 7–10 Year Treasuries are down roughly 8%, and 20+ Year Treasuries (TLT) have lost approximately 33%. Carlson argues that while shifting from 0% to 5% caused acute drawdown pain, current 5% yields now offer investors a genuine margin of safety against further declines, with a standard recession capable of reversing the bearish narrative quickly. Simultaneously, retail access to leveraged and alternative assets is shifting rapidly. In South Korea, frictionless retail brokerage tools allowing 5x margin contributed to 500,000 retail accounts facing liquidation amid market swings. In contrast, institutional alternative assets are seeking regulated retail channels: Blackstone is partnering with Vanguard and Wellington Management to structure multi-asset funds pairing index equities and active fixed income with private credit, infrastructure, and private equity, establishing an operational pathway for private assets to enter mass 401(k) target-date funds. While the combination of locked-in housing debt and high-earner wealth cushions the macro economy from standard late-cycle distress, unresolved tensions remain around how long mega-cap tech executives can maintain aggressive AI capital expenditure before shareholder pushback forces deeper market drawdowns.

The Compound的主持人Michael Batnick与Ben Carlson指出，尽管半导体和前期热门板块遭遇急剧回调，但美股大盘在强劲盈利修正支撑下展现出罕见韧性；同时，锁定低息房贷的4500万美国家庭所释放的巨额购买力，构成了宏观经济抵抗衰退的关键缓冲。 行业分化与市场领涨板块的良性去泡沫 (0:00) 在7月27日的交易日中，美股呈现出极端的内部结构轮动：半导体与AI硬件板块单日重挫4.0%，而非AI软件板块则逆势上涨3.3%。Batnick援引自1989年以来的历史数据指出，这种单一交易日内极度对立的板块分化十分罕见。从近期高点来看，硬件与存储类股票出现显著回撤，其中SanDisk下跌46%、Marvell下跌41%、Western Digital下跌34%、Micron下跌27%，但SanDisk在过去一年内的累计涨幅仍高达约2900%。Carlson认为，即便英伟达等核心标的单日跌幅达5%，等权重标普500指数依然实现微幅收涨，且指数整体距离历史高点仅在2%以内。这种领涨龙头退潮而防御性板块承接资金的走势，被两位主持人视为健康有序的“去泡沫”过程，而非系统性崩溃。 在估值层面，Duality Research的数据显示，标普500指数的远期市盈率（Forward P/E）目前约为19.5倍，仅适度高于此前市场低点时的18.0倍。Batnick指出估值倍数并未随大盘高位而恶化，反映出市场对企业盈利的可持续性抱有审慎预期；而Carlson则强调，近来标普500企业每股收益上修动量指数处于历史高位，更多企业管理层在主动调高业绩预期，表明基本面盈利的快速追赶正在以健康方式消化原本偏高的估值。 债券市场共识性悲观与5%收益率安全边际 (15:22) Carlson指出，当前宏观分析界与机构投资者对债券资产抱有普遍且极度的看空情绪。包括Fidelity的Urian Timmer与Red Cedar Investments的Mitch Staples在内的多位投资主管近期均公开警告，在巨额财政赤字、持久通胀压力及美联储利率风险交织的“财政主导”环境下，长久期资产面临严重受创风险，投资者应严格控制组合久期。从过去五年的全收益表现来看，彭博美国综合债券ETF（AGG）与3至7年期美债总回报基本归零，7至10年期美债下跌约8%，而20年期以上国债ETF（TLT）更是暴跌约33%，对仅持有固定收益资产的投资者构成了重大杀伤。 但Carlson同时提出审慎反思：尽管通胀风险真实存在，但在基准债券收益率已达到5%的当下，市场对债券的排斥情绪显得过于绝对。与过去零利率（ZIRP）时期缺乏下行缓冲不同，当前5%的票息提供了实质性的“安全边际”，将潜在损失模式从以往跌落悬崖式的净值崩溃，转变为更平缓的渐进调整。此外，经典60/40股债平衡组合在权益端强劲回报的驱动下依然显著跑赢长期均值，且宏观经济若发生温和衰退，可能会在极短时间内彻底逆转当前对债券的普遍悲观叙事。 低息房贷红利与4500万富裕家庭的支出规模 (26:44) 凯雷集团（Carlyle Group）的研究表明，美国消费者在通胀周期中展现出超预期韧性的关键原因，在于住房抵押贷款的特殊结构。在全美1.35亿户家庭中，约有5000万户背负住房抵押贷款，且绝大多数锁定了长期固定利率。目前全美存量房贷的实际加权平均利率仅为4.3%，而新发房贷利率则维持在6.5%至6.6%的高位区间。凯雷计算显示，与浮动利率按市场水平重定价的常规模式相比，这一固定利率利差每年额外为美国房贷家庭留存了高达3000亿美元的可支配资金，从机制上相当于居民部门通过长期低息借贷成功做空美元并对冲了通胀压力。 Carlson进一步引用数据显示，全美收入与资产排名前4500万的家庭群体，其每年总消费支出接近15万亿美元。这一群体的年度开支规模相当于德国整体GDP的3倍，达到中国经济总量的约70%，展现出单靠顶层三分之一人口即可驱动海量需求的独立经济体特征。来自金融机构的微观数据印证了消费的强劲：美国运通报告其国内消费支出同比增长11%，其中千禧一代增长14%，Z世代更是同比激增40%。尽管低收入年轻群体面临购房门槛加剧的压力，但拥有富裕背景或高收入的年轻消费者在奢侈旅行与娱乐方面的边际消费倾向依然极高。 一级市场定价偏离、散户杠杆与私募零售化 (12:09) 关于一级市场与新股表现，Carlson援引Torsten Slok与Exhibit A的数据指出，2019年以来的美股IPO在3年买入持有视角下持续显著跑输基准指数，典型IPO走势往往在首日冲高后陷入长达一年的阴跌，上市第12个月相对大盘的平均跑输幅度达30%。以SpaceX二级市场交易为例，其股价在7月份的18个交易日中出现14天下跌，累计自高点下挫约45%。尽管亿万富翁Ron Baron预测SpaceX未来十年有望以30%至35%的复合年增长率实现20至30倍扩张，Batnick却质疑这一估值推演若成真，其隐含市值将逼近美国当前GDP总量，并指出一级市场风投虚高估值最终往往由公开市场进行痛苦的向下重定价。 与此同时，零售投资者的过度加杠杆风险受到关注。路透社报道显示，韩国部分券商软件允许散户一键获取5倍杠杆，导致有大学散户在将约1.5万美元炒至20万美元后迅速爆仓归零，全韩近期有近50万个零售杠杆账户遭强制平仓。在资金端，黑石集团（Blackstone）近期正与先锋领航（Vanguard）及威灵顿管理公司（Wellington）展开深度合作，由黑石提供私募信贷、私募股权及基础设施资产，向普通财富管理客户分发兼具流动性资产与非流动性资产的组合基金。两位主持人指出，这种将另类资产推向大众渠道的做法，正在为未来私募市场资产全面进驻401(k)目标日期基金（TDF）铺平道路。 巨头AI资本开支博弈与代际财富沉淀机制 (30:58) 科技巨头在人工智能领域的激进投入正引发华尔街与公司管理层之间的博弈。以Alphabet（Google）为例，尽管其云业务实现82%的同比增长、YouTube收入上升24%，但由于管理层重申算力供不应求并将不顾短期自由现金流转负而坚定执行多年期基础设施建设计划，导致其股价自高点回落近18%至20%。Batnick与Carlson分析称，华尔街对科技巨头无节制资本支出（CapEx）的抵触情绪正在升温，但在科技巨头股价发生40%以上实质性重挫之前，科技CEO们不太可能主动缩减这场关乎技术领导地位的军备竞赛。 从更长远的财富流向来看，宏观资金的资产留存倾向依然显著。Visa关于“世纪财富大转移”的研究预测，未来20年内将有36万亿美元财富在代际间转移，其中约75%的遗产将集中流入本身已处于前10%财富梯队的继承人手中。更为关键的是，研究预计在这36万亿美元中，高达28万亿美元将被直接作为储蓄或重新配置于金融投资组合，仅有8万亿美元会流入实体消费。这表明巨额资本在金融体系内的沉淀和再投资，将在中长期内持续压低资本成本并为头部资本市场提供底层流动性支撑。 本期节目展现的核心矛盾在于，资本市场内部的剧烈回撤（如硬件龙头跌幅逾30%以及高杠杆散户受挫）与宽基指数逼近历史高位的韧性并存。两位主持人的讨论留下了尚未解答的核心命题：当由低息房贷支撑的消费红利逐渐消耗，以及巨额AI基础设施投资面临商业回报变现考核时，高估值权益资产与达成广泛看空共识的固定收益资产之间，谁能率先打破当前的均衡状态。

## Background 本期节目由财经媒体频道 The Compound 于 2026 年 7 月 30 日在 YouTube 平台发布。节目由迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）与本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）共同主持，围绕美股半导体板块重挫与软件逆势大涨的极端分化、全美 4500 万富裕家庭的惊人消费体量、债券市场的一致性悲观预期、韩国散户 5 倍杠杆狂欢、IMAX 胶片放映机制造技术失传之谜以及公司资深元老的光荣退休等热点话题展开探讨。 ## TL;DR 两位主持人首先复盘了半导体领头羊暴跌而大盘坚挺的“去泡沫”健康行情，并指出低息固定房贷为美国家庭释放了充沛现金流，全美最富有的 4500 万户家庭年消费近 15 万亿美元，成为支撑美国经济韧性的主力引擎。节目深入分析了科技巨头在 AI 资本开支上的“胆小鬼博弈”、韩国大学生借高杠杆炒股爆仓的人性闹剧，以及高达 36 万亿美元的世纪财富大转移所映射的财富分化现实。此外，两人还探讨了 Netflix 的时长增长瓶颈与克里斯托弗·诺兰新作引发的 IMAX 70 毫米胶片狂潮，并向为教师权益奋斗多年、正式退休的同事 Tony 与 Dina Isola 夫妇致以崇高敬意。 ## Atmosphere & style 整期节目洋溢着两位老搭档之间极其熟稔且互损不断的幽默默契，在专业硬核的市场研判与毫无包袱的私人生活爆料之间自由切换。迈克尔强忍突发肠胃炎的折磨带病录制，被本调侃为每季度必演的乔丹式“流感之战”，两人关于儿子坐木质过山车吓晕、九岁男童为夏令营舞会求购古龙水等育儿窘事的爆笑互怼让播客充满烟火气。而在回顾退休老同事长年为公立学校教师抵御金融掠夺的崇高职业生涯时，谈话又自然流淌出真挚动人的敬意与哲思，给整场对话注入了深厚的人文温情。 ## Bulletin - [00:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=57s) 半导体板块单日重挫约 4% 而软件板块逆势大涨 3.3%，创下 1989 年以来罕见的极端风格背离散点值，反映出前期过热的 AI 基础设施动量交易正在温和去泡沫。 - [26:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1617s) 全美拥有抵押贷款的 5000 万户家庭实际平均房贷利率仅为 4.3%，相比超 6.5% 的新增房贷利率每年节省约 3000 亿美元可支配现金流，形成美国家庭消费的强劲底色。 - [29:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1791s) 全美最富裕的 4500 万户家庭年度支出近 15 万亿美元，规模相当于中国 GDP 的 70% 或德国 GDP 的 3 倍，构成了一个高度免疫通胀冲击的独立消费微观经济体。 - [46:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2785s) 克里斯托弗·诺兰新片全球次周 IMAX 票房斩获 4800 万美元，然而由于原始蓝图遗失且零件停产，全美仅存 25 块 70 毫米胶片巨幕，面临无法复制量产的技术困局。 ## Key takeaways - [00:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=57s) 半导体与软件板块在同一交易日出现 1989 年以来罕见的极端负相关背离，市场在核心芯片股深跌的同时大盘维持平稳，体现出健康的去杠杆与去泡沫节奏。 - [09:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=567s) 标普 500 指数的前瞻市盈率从低点的 18 倍微升至 19.5 倍，估值回落更多源于市场对企业未来高盈利预期（E）的可持续性产生怀疑，而非股票本身绝对便宜。 - [12:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=729s) 德银与 Exhibit A 数据显示，自 2019 年以来新股买入持有三年表现普遍跑输大盘，IPO 上市 12 个月后平均跌幅达 30%，揭示出一级市场虚高估值遭二级市场冷遇。 - [13:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=835s) 传奇投资人罗恩·巴伦预期 SpaceX 估值在未来 10 至 15 年内还能再涨 20 到 30 倍，但折算年化复合收益率高达 35%，在体量常理和数学逻辑上引发广泛质疑。 - [16:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=975s) 市场对债券形成一边倒的极度悲观共识，尽管过去 5 年 20 年期以上国债暴跌约 33%，但在 5% 无风险收益率下，断崖式重创大概率已过，反而提供了安全垫。 - [20:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1258s) 韩国年轻散户凭借 App 便捷的一键 5 倍杠杆炒股，大批账户剧烈爆仓，反映出缺乏成熟投资文化的新兴市场极度投机化与加密化特征。 - [24:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1476s) 先锋领航与黑石合作推出包含私募信贷与非上市资产的新基金，标志着传统公募巨头顺应草堆规模扩张趋势，将一级市场资产纳入主流配置。 - [26:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1617s) 美国家庭锁定 4.3% 长期固定房贷利率本质相当于做空美元，每年相比当前市价节省 3000 亿美元，有力支撑了高利率周期下的零售消费韧性。 - [30:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1857s) Google 尽管云业务与总营收表现亮眼，但因资本支出激增及自由现金流转负导致股价回调，反映出华尔街对超大规模云厂商 AI 军备竞赛产生焦虑。 - [35:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2120s) 标普 500 企业每股收益指引动能创历史新高，高管上调盈利指引远多于下调，强劲的企业基本面正在拉动估值倍数出现被动回落。 - [37:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2254s) 美国运通数据显示 Z 世代消费同比狂飙 40%，驱动旅行与娱乐类支出增长 30%，展现出年轻代际内部极宽的财富命运离散度与消费两极化。 - [41:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2490s) 全美未来 20 年预计转移的 36 万亿美元遗产中，约 75% 将集中流向最富有的 10% 家庭，且 28 万亿美元将留在投资组合中，实际消费释放有限。 - [43:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2636s) Netflix 独占全美 57% 的流媒体观看时长，但其用户观看时长年增速已放缓至 1%–2%，面临 Instagram Reels 等短视频对公众注意力的严重侵蚀。 - [46:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2785s) 因半个世纪前的初始工程蓝图遗失且零件停产，全球仅剩约 45 块 70 毫米胶片巨幕，IMAX 如今无法直接复刻量产以满足诺兰电影引发的票房热潮。 - [49:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2977s) Ritholtz Wealth 早期成员 Tony 和 Dina 夫妇退休，其从反对高费率年金剥削公立教师转型为指数投资倡导者的历程，诠释了金钱增长与时间缩水的职业真谛。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=0s) 赞助商播报：YCharts 赋能财务顾问 本期节目由 YCharts 赞助播出。对于财务顾问而言，日常业务中最困难的部分往往不是搜集数据，而是如何把庞杂的数据转化为清晰、自信的沟通内容，以及客户能够真正看懂的可视化图表。YCharts 能够帮助投资顾问大幅提升研究效率，清晰呈现市场趋势，并将复杂的资产组合问题迅速提炼为可直接面向客户交付的专业见解。据统计，使用 YCharts 的顾问在制定投资方案、市场研究及客户会前准备上，平均每月可节省约 20 个小时的时间。 如今该平台还集成了内置的 AI 工具，顾问可以快速提炼关键要点，迅速弄清数据变动的具体原因，而无需在繁杂的数据堆中耗费精力。无论是进行投资组合横向对比、策略压力测试，还是在实时会议中回答客户提出的尖锐问题，YCharts 都能帮助顾问过滤噪音，聚焦核心。新用户访问官网或点击节目简介中的链接，即可开启免费试用并享受 YCharts Professional 订阅首期 20% 的专属折扣优惠。 ### [00:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=57s) 录制开场与半导体软件极端背离行情 迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）与本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）展开了本期播客的对话。迈克尔在开场时特意报出了录制时间为 7 月 27 日周一盘后，本则笑着调侃道平时两人都是在周二早盘前录制，迈克尔回应称周一收盘后录和周二开盘前录本质上毫无差别，正好赶在收盘的第一时间复盘这极为异动的一天。 当天的美股盘面表现极度诡异且反常。过去半年内被市场疯狂追捧的 AI 基础设施建设板块、半导体以及相关硬件概念股遭到了无情抛售，此前严重透支的动量行情迅速走向反面。截至下午盘尾，半导体板块单日重挫约 4%，而作为“反向 AI 硬件/芯片”交易的软件板块却逆势大涨 3.3%。迈克尔展示了一张追溯至 1989 年的历史散点图，指出从过去三十多年的统计数据来看，半导体暴跌与软件暴涨同时发生是极其罕见的历史极端离群值，其剧烈程度堪比股票市场惨遭血洗的同时债券市场却大幅暴涨。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: AI交易退潮下的极端风格分化 accDescr: 展示半导体与软件板块在同一交易日的极端背离走势 subgraph Hardware ["AI硬件与半导体（前期动量过热）"] A["半导体整体: -4.0%"] B["Nvidia: -5.0%"] C["存储概念股大幅回调"] end subgraph Divergence ["盘面资金轮动"] D["极端风格背离散点图<br/>(1989年以来罕见离群日)"] end subgraph Defensive ["反转与防御资产"] E["软件板块: +3.3%"] F["标普等权重指数: 上涨约40+ bps"] G["标普500大盘: 整体持平/微涨"] end Hardware --> D D --> Defensive ``` - 内存芯片与硬件股高位大幅跳水：美光科技（Micron）自高点已下挫 27%，西部数据（Western Digital）下跌 34%，闪迪（SanDisk）跌幅达 46%，希捷科技（Seagate Technology）下挫 26%。 - 标普 500 指数距离历史新高仅相差约 2%，在领涨核心资产遭遇重锤的情况下，大盘整体几乎平盘甚至略微收涨，标普 500 等权重指数单日上涨约 40 多个基点。 ### [03:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=188s) 芯片与硬件股深度回调：从暴涨泡沫到健康去杠杆 本·卡尔森将这种板块剧烈分化视作市场内在健康的极大好消息。尽管唱空者整天高呼“AI 泡沫”，但在过去一段时间充当市场领头羊的芯片明星股被猛烈砸盘的同时，整体大盘却表现得波澜不惊。英伟达（Nvidia）当天暴跌 5%，迈克尔调侃本在讨论这种短期行情时语气兴奋得拔高了“四个八度”。 迈克尔随后出示了两张图表，显示半导体股票过去 52 周的平均回撤幅度已达到 27%，其中美满电子（Marvell）自高点暴跌 41%；在科技硬件与设备板块中，西部数据、康宁（Corning）和闪迪均遭遇严重下挫。尤其是闪迪，此前涨势极度透支，如今虽然深陷 45% 至 46% 的巨幅回撤，但只要将时间拉长到过去一年，该股仍有高达 2900% 的惊人涨幅。迈克尔借用喜剧电影《王牌播音员》中罗恩·勃艮第（Ron Burgundy）的名台词感叹道：“这涨幅听着跟假的一样，我甚至都生不起气来，只有佩服（I'm not even mad, I'm impressed）。”两人一致认为，此前被视为泡沫的核心领域正在以温和的方式“去泡沫”（debubbling）与泄气，市场先是经历“七巨头”（Magnificent Seven）调整而大盘未崩，接着又是芯片与存储概念股暴跌而指数依然安然无恙。 ### [05:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=300s) “拉斯普京式”顽强市场与周期末期信号 面对美股跌不死的顽强生命力，本将其比作“拉斯普京式市场”（Rasputin market），迈克尔则一头雾水地询问这到底是哪来的历史典故还是童话故事。本解释称，自己最早是从著名体育评论员克里斯·伯曼（Chris Berman）形容前底特律雄狮队教练韦恩·方特斯（Wayne Fontes）执教寿命极长、怎么也开除不掉的话里听来的；历史上的格里戈里·拉斯普京（Grigori Rasputin）是俄国沙皇时期的传奇修道士，遭遇了五次暗杀，被下毒、被刀刺都死不了，因此常被用来形容怎么打都打不死的顽固事物。 两人随即探讨了浮出水面的潜在风险与结构性轮动。如果站在财经电视的角度，眼下的现象完全符合典型的“周期末期特征”（late cycle behavior）： - 资金明显流向防御性板块，可口可乐（Coca-Cola）等乏味平淡的必需消费品股票近期出现强劲拉升。 - 信用利差（Credit Spreads）出现走阔迹象，尤其是垃圾债等低评级高收益债券的利差扩张更为明显。 - 市场弥漫着对美联储政策的猜测，宏观经济学家尼尔·杜塔（Neil Dutta）甚至公开抛出了本周美联储可能会意外加息的激进观点，不过本对此不以为然，认为新任期首次重大会议绝不可能冒失加息。 - 尽管存在诸多周期末期的预警特征，但本调侃道，美股在这个所谓的“第九局”已经打了整整 12 年，多头早就用一次次坚挺的表现为自己赢得了足够的信任空间。 ### [06:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=417s) 动量因子剧烈洗盘与行情的“天然限速器” 本随后分享了动量因子（以 iShares 动量因子 ETF 即 MTUM 为代表）经历的历史级剧烈震荡。在截至今年 4 月的行情中，动量策略遭遇挫折，年内累计下跌近 10%；但随后仅仅用了三个月时间，MTUM 就一路暴涨至年内累计涨幅近 40%；而在最近一个月内，随着市场调整，其年内涨幅又迅速回落并稳定在 20% 左右。 迈克尔与本认为，这种回踩实际上让整个市场环境变得更加健康和理性。此前美光科技等个股动辄单日暴涨 13% 的狂热节奏显然无法持久，当前的降温回撤非常正常。市场上似乎存在某种“天然限速器”（natural governor），每当行情眼看要演变成彻底失控的非理性狂欢时，市场总会在关键时刻找回理智、主动踩下一脚刹车，呈现出一种难得的清醒状态（sober）。同时，Duality Research 的数据显示，标普 500 指数的远期市盈率（Forward P/E）其实一直在持续回落，并没有伴随指数高位而盲目飙升。 ### [08:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=498s) 场外插曲：迈克尔的“流感之战”与《西区帮》追剧体验 听到“清醒”（sober）这个词，迈克尔突然联想到了自己刚刚经历的生病惨状。他透露自己正在录制本季度的第二场“流感之战”（flu game，致敬乔丹带病打总决赛的典故）。从上周日一直到周一中午，他整个人病倒在床，昏睡了足足 20 个小时，直到当天中午才勉强爬起来录制节目，目前体力大概只恢复了八成。 在卧床休养期间，迈克尔被四个人安利后，终于忍不住在流媒体平台 MGM+ 上开通订阅追看了一部新剧《西区帮》（The Westies）。尽管迈克尔之前还在抱怨流媒体平台太多，但由于他已经订购了 Shudder，再加订 MGM+ 只要每月 3 美元。这部剧围绕纽约贾维茨会议中心（Javits Center）的扩建工程展开，讲述了由 J.K. 西蒙斯（J.K. Simmons）饰演的爱尔兰黑手党头目，与高蒂（John Gotti）以及卡斯特拉诺（Paul Castellano）领导的意大利黑手党家族之间展开的残酷黑帮火拼。迈克尔称赞该剧节奏相当扎实，是一部难得好看的黑帮佳作；本则笑着吐槽迈克尔平时总吹嘘自己从不生病，结果每隔三个月就要在节目里演上一出抱病录制的戏码。 ### [09:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=567s) 生病吐槽、爱尔兰威士忌与美股前瞻市盈率的“喷射式”回落 迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）与本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）以迈克尔最近的身体状况闲聊开场。本调侃迈克尔每隔三个月就会倒在床上整整病上 24 小时，而迈克尔则反驳称自己“只有在生病时才生病”，平时健康得很。本自称是那个几乎从不生病的人，不会轻易被小病菌击倒 48 小时。迈克尔解释称，美国东北部最近流行严重的肠胃病毒，除了生菜污染事件外，夏令营中还暴发了大肠杆菌（E. coli）疫情。本打趣他是不是吃了塔可贝尔（Taco Bell），迈克尔坦白自己确实食物中毒或感染了肠胃炎，前一天早晨剧烈呕吐（projectile vomiting）了五次。他提到自己当时在看电影《西区帮》（The Westies），里面有一段爱尔兰人喝酒的场景，看到角色们大口灌尊美醇爱尔兰威士忌（Jameson）的画面，胃里一阵翻江倒海，恶心得差点直接吐出来。本也赞同地表示，爱尔兰威士忌虽然好喝，但下肚时“从来都不顺喉”。 借着“喷射性呕吐”的玩笑，本迅速将话题切回美股市场的前瞻市盈率（Forward P/E）。他指出，当前美股的前瞻市盈率也像在“呕吐”一样持续下滑，但市场并没有便宜到让人大喊“股票太便宜了”的地步。具体数据显示，目前的前瞻市盈率约为 19.5 倍，而在早前的所谓“解放日低点”（liberation day lows）期间，该指标曾达到 18 倍；考虑到自那以来美股大盘已经大幅反弹，估值竟然只微幅上升，这令人不可思议。迈克尔认为，前瞻市盈率回落并不意味着可以拍着桌子断言市场必将大涨，这反而说明市场并不相信华尔街对企业未来盈利（Earnings，即 E）的乐观预期——尤其是近期存储芯片类股票的剧烈波动更是印证了这一点。本则感叹，过去多年来人们总在抱怨市场被高估，而如今估值真的开始回落了。他重申了自己的观点：除非整体市场市盈率飙升到 50 倍这种极端水平，否则估值对于大盘的长期走势并没有实质性的指导意义，尽管这种看法听上去像是“投资界的异端邪说”。 - 标普 500 远期估值变动：此前市场低点约为 18 倍 Forward P/E，当前虽然大盘涨幅巨大，但仅上升至约 19.5 倍。 - 迈克尔的核心观点：P/E 下降的核心驱动力在于市场开始质疑预期的“E”（盈利预测不可持续），而非股票自然变便宜。 --- ### [12:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=729s) 悲惨的 IPO 表现与一级市场的虚假估值泡沫 本引用了德意志银行知名经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）的一项研究：自 2019 年以来，IPO 股票的表现全线落后于大盘。该项研究统计了经市场收益率调整后的三年期买入持有（Buy and Hold）表现，结果显示这十年间上市的新股几乎每年都在被市场“屠杀”、惨遭血洗。市场普遍流行一种叙事，称近年来 IPO 数量减少、独角兽企业迟迟不愿上市是因为监管繁苛以及私募一级市场资金充沛。但在本看来，背后更根本的原因在于这些公司心里清楚自己的估值严重虚高；一旦走向公开市场接受检验，泡沫就会瞬间被戳破。迈克尔对此强烈赞同，直言这份图表就是对“一级市场投资者的公开控诉”——热钱过度涌入推高了虚假估值，而二级公开市场的投资者根本不买账。 本接着提到了 Exhibit A 团队编制的一项追踪自 1999 年以来新股平均走势的图表：典型的 IPO 股票在上市首日冲高后稍微回落，随后再次反弹，紧接着便开始一路向下阴跌；在挂牌 12 个月后，IPO 股票平均跌幅竟高达 30%。以备受瞩目的 SpaceX 为例，该股上市初期一度暴涨 50%，而如今累计下跌 15%，较历史高点回撤已达 45% 左右。更夸张的是，在 7 月份的 18 个交易日中，该股有 14 天处于下跌状态，几乎天天走低。从一开始就看空其估值过高的人迅速被市场证明是正确的。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 典型 IPO 股票上市 12 个月生命周期走势 accDescr: 展示从上市初期的暴涨、短暂回落再冲高，到长期阴跌并在 12 个月后平均下跌 30% 的过程。 subgraph Phase1["上市初期（狂热期）"] A["公司以高估值 IPO 上市"] --> B["上市首日大幅冲高（Pop）"] B --> C["初期投机资金获利回吐"] end subgraph Phase2["次级反弹（诱多期）"] C --> D["出现短暂的次级反弹行情"] end subgraph Phase3["价值回归（漫长阴跌）"] D --> E["公开市场对虚高估值拒绝买单"] E --> F["上市 12 个月后平均暴跌 30%"] end ``` --- ### [13:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=835s) 专访 83 岁老将罗恩·巴伦与 SpaceX 的天文数字估值 迈克尔问及本是否收听了他们在《The Compound and Friends》（TCAF）节目中对传奇投资人罗恩·巴伦（Ron Baron）的专访。本调侃自己的播客收听习惯最近陷入了“熊市”，因为周末全在户外活动，只能工作日慢慢补。迈克尔介绍，作为特斯拉的超级坚定多头，巴伦对埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）推崇备至，毕竟马斯克为其本人及旗下基金的投资者带来了惊人的 300 亿美元财富回报。 迈克尔分享了巴伦令人震撼的长期业绩与投资风格。巴伦管理的旗舰公募基金自 2003 年以来的收益在全市场名列第一，旗下约 95% 的基金长期处于行业前 10% 的顶级分位（top decile）。巴伦具有超乎常人的耐力，曾持有永利度假村（Wynn Resorts）长达 27 年。对于 SpaceX，只要早期投资者想要套现离场，巴伦就会毫不犹豫地全盘接盘，至今已先后进行了 27 次追加投资。巴伦在专访中语出惊人，认为 SpaceX 在未来 10 至 15 年内还能再涨 20 到 30 倍。迈克尔为此算了一笔账：在当前 1.5 万亿美元潜在估值的基础上，若要在未来 10 年实现 20 倍增长，意味着复合年化增长率（CAGR）必须达到 35%，这相当于未来 SpaceX 一家公司的规模就要赶上当今整个美国的经济总量，从数学和商业常理来看极其不可思议。除了投资数字，迈克尔还被 83 岁的巴伦极其敏锐的精神状态和惊人记忆力所震撼。迈克尔调侃自己是个习惯在交谈时“直视对方灵魂”的“深度眼神接触狂人”，而巴伦在录播中全程与他坚定对视，最终巴伦先眨了下眼，让这场眼神较量显得颇有戏剧色彩。 - 罗恩·巴伦与马斯克资产：通过对特斯拉等标的的重仓，为自己和客户赚取了 300 亿美元。 - SpaceX 投资历程：先后进行 27 笔独立投资，持续收购退出的老股。 - 争议性预测：巴伦断言 SpaceX 将实现 10 到 15 年内 20-30 倍增长（相当于 35% 年化复合收益率），被巴特尼克直指脱离经济体量常识。 --- ### [16:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=975s) 债市共识大悲观：当 5% 的收益率依旧人人厌弃 本抛出了当前金融市场的另一个重大普遍共识：无论是投资界同行还是财经评论员阶层，如今几乎所有人都在极端看空债券（Bearish on bonds）。本承认，这种高度一致的“单边共识”让他感到十分不安。他列举了自己过去一周内的两次深度交流： 首先是富达投资（Fidelity）的资深宏观策略师尤里安·蒂默尔（Jurrien Timmer）在《Ask The Compound》节目中的分析。蒂默尔认为当前市场面临的最大风险之一就是美债收益率的再度攀升。在巨大的财政赤字与政府债务扩张驱动下，全球已步入“财政主导”（fiscal dominance）时代，长达 40 年的利率单边下行周期已经彻底终结；通胀黏性迫使美联储不得不将利率维持在高位甚至可能再次加息。 随后，本在参加播客节目《买者自负》（Caveat Emptor）时，前第五第三银行（Fifth Third Bank）首席投资官、现任 Red Cedar 投资负责人的纯固收专家米奇·斯特普尔（Mitch Staple）也给出了几乎一模一样的论断：高通胀将长期存在，长久期（long-duration）资产将被市场狠狠“碾碎”（get smoked），投资者在当前环境下必须尽可能压低投资组合的久期。 本坦言自己倾向于认同高通胀具有黏性这一基本面逻辑，但他从逆向投资者的心理角度提出了耐人寻味的观察：如果倒退 5 年或 10 年，告诉市场参与者“美债收益率终将重返 5%”，绝大多数人一定会认为届时债券将成为极具吸引力的抢手资产；然而讽刺的是，当 5% 的无风险收益率终于照进现实，现在的整个市场却依然对债券充满了彻底的厌恶与唾弃。 ### [18:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1086s) 债券市场的悲观情绪与历史回报惨状 在经历长期的零利率时代后，实际收益率终于回升到了足够有吸引力的水平，但市场上的投资者却依然普遍厌恶债券，这让两位主持人颇感意外。他们讨论了这种广泛看空的共识在什么情况下会被证明是错的——或许只有一场真正的经济衰退才能扭转局面。当前利率在近期历史标准下已处于高位一段时间，大家关心的问题是：究竟要发生什么，高收益率带来的风险才会全面显现？是 10 年期美债收益率飙升到 5.5%，还是单纯因为“更高更久”（Higher for Longer）的时间拖得太长，最终重创了某些经济环节？鉴于政府庞大的财政赤字和支出，收益率没有进一步飙高本就令人惊讶，因为市场和整体经济往往需要一段时间来消化并适应这种新常态。 之所以大众对债券怨声载道，核心原因在于过去 5 年的实际表现堪称灾难。通过回顾 5 年期债券总回报数据可以清晰看到痛点： - **彭博美国综合债券指数（AGG）**：作为绝大多数普通投资者的基准配置或宽基指数基金，过去 5 年的总回报几乎为零。 - **3 至 7 年期国债**：收益同样基本归零。 - **7 至 10 年期国债**：5 年累计亏损约 8%。 - **20 年期以上长期国债**：遭遇血洗，跌幅高达约 33%；若再计入同期的高通胀，实际购买力损失惨重。 对于这种情绪，本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）打趣地模仿起典型投资论调：几乎没有人“只持有债券”，在经典的 60/40 股债组合中，股票承担了绝大部分收益增长的重任，使得整体组合表现依然高于历史平均水准。更重要的是，利率从 0% 暴拉至 5% 的过程，已经完成了债券历史上杀伤力最大的一波下挫，犹如“在没有降落伞的情况下被直接推下悬崖”。如今较高的收益率反而提供了此前缺失的安全垫；哪怕未来利率仍有上升空间，充其量也只是“千刀万剐”般的钝痛，最糟糕的断崖式暴跌大概率已经过去。 --- ### [20:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1258s) 韩国年轻股民的 5 倍杠杆狂欢与暴仓故事 节目转向了路透社报道的一则惊人案例，揭示了韩国散户令人咋舌的投机文化。24 岁的首尔在校大学生李成浩（Lee Song-ho，音译），在服兵役期间省吃俭用存下了 2000 万韩元。退役后，他仅凭交易软件上一个“不起眼的小圆圈按钮”，就瞬间开通了高达 500%（5 倍）的融资杠杆。凭借这笔杠杆贷款，他的账户资产一度像滚雪球般暴增 15 倍，飙升至近 3 亿韩元（约合 20 万美元）。 然而，韩国股市剧烈的双向波动迅速引发了券商的强制平仓潮。在 5 月短短四周内，李成浩建立的财富帝国彻底灰飞烟灭，不仅利润被洗劫一空，账户总值甚至跌破了最初的本金。李成浩在事后坦言，当时的精神重压让他“几乎窒息”。但这并没有浇灭他的投机之火——在自己那间比停车位大不了多少的微型单间公寓里，身旁放着空了的响牌威士忌（Hibiki）酒瓶，以及因成为交易 VIP 客户而由券商赠送的尚未开箱的电风扇，他依然坚定地表示只要重新攒够本金，就会立刻重返杠杆市场。他的逻辑极为纯粹：“股票本身就是高波动资产，如果这种波动向上走，就能实现财富飞跃；如果加了 5 倍杠杆，我的财富积累速度就能比别人快 5 倍。” 两位主持人对这篇报道的黑色幽默细节大加赞赏，调侃外媒非要刻意描写其居住空间之逼仄，实在有些“杀人诛心”。他们谈到，此前就有数据显示韩国有数十万个散户账户惨遭强平，官方也不得不对杠杆 ETF 施加限制。这种只要在 App 上点一下就能对任意规模账户提供 5 倍杠杆的做法，与加密货币市场动辄爆仓的机制如出一辙。本·卡尔森指出，许多海外市场缺乏像美国那样深厚的长期投资文化和制度认知；随着这些国家的年轻一代接触股市，他们很可能会像经历加密货币的牛熊转换一样，把股市周期变得极度大起大落。但从宏观资金面来看，只要散户不至于全盘破产走上绝路，全球股权参与度的提升长期而言仍是一个巨大顺风： - 例如日本家庭的股票持有率仅约为 15%，而美国家庭则高达约 65%。 - 随着全球准入门槛彻底瓦解，海外增量资金的涌入将对全球股票乃至美股形成持续支撑，前提是“散户们别再拿 5 倍杠杆去赌命”。 --- ### [24:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1476s) 黑石联手先锋领航：一级市场正在吞噬公募基金？ 据《华尔街日报》报道，黑石集团（Blackstone）联手先锋领航（Vanguard）推出了针对个人投资者的新型私募市场基金。在今年早些时候私人信贷基金经历赎回潮后，两家巨头这一合作格外引人注目，甚至被戏称为会让已故先锋领航创始人约翰·博格尔（Jack Bogle）“气得掀棺材板”的举动——尽管当年博格尔同样极力反对 ETF，而如今 ETF 已成为先锋领航最核心的支柱业务之一。 该产品最初将面向美林证券（Merrill Lynch）的客户销售，产品内部构建了细致的分工协作架构： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 全市场基金资产管理分工架构 accDescr: 展示先锋领航、威灵顿与黑石在全市场基金中的具体管理职责划分 subgraph FundStructure["全市场基金 (All Markets Fund)"] direction TB subgraph VanguardSection["先锋领航 (Vanguard)"] A["指数股票底仓"] B["指数及主动固定收益"] end subgraph WellingtonSection["威灵顿管理 (Wellington)"] C["主动权益管理"] D["全组合流动性管理"] end subgraph BlackstoneSection["黑石集团 (Blackstone)"] E["全权管理所有私募资产"] end end VanguardSection --> FundStructure WellingtonSection --> FundStructure BlackstoneSection --> FundStructure ``` 针对“这是否违背了约翰·博格尔‘不要试图在草堆里找针，直接买下整个草堆’的被动投资哲学”的质疑，先锋领航的发言人给出了针锋相对的辩护：市场环境已经彻底改变，“现在的草堆本身就已经包含了庞大的私募市场”。普通客户长期以来无法触及这一领域，而先锋领航的介入旨在随着时间推移，降低散户投资私募资产的成本和操作复杂性。 两位主持人一致认为，这种产品是未来私募资产全面进军主流目标日期基金（Target Date Funds）的探路先锋。虽然这类跨资产组合在再平衡机制和流动性匹配上仍有待观察，但今天的资本世界确实已不同于 40 年前——私人信贷、非上市基础设施与私募股权的体量急速膨胀，多元化配置包含一级市场资产已经成为不可逆转的行业趋势。紧接着，话题自然延伸至卡莱尔集团（Carlyle Group）围绕美国宏观经济与消费习惯的最新深度观察。 ### [26:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1617s) 固定房贷利率的对冲红利与“做空美元” Ben 和 Michael 深入剖析了低房贷利率如何转化为美国家庭的巨额可支配收入与消费韧性。在全美约 1.35 亿个家庭中，有 5000 万户拥有住房抵押贷款，且绝大部分采用的是长期固定利率。Ben 提出了一种独特的投资视角：背负长期低固定利率房贷，本质上就相当于“做空美元”。对于那些坚信美元贬值、法币必将崩溃的人来说，锁定长达数十年的低息债务是最佳的应对策略，因为你未来是在用贬值的货币偿还固定债务。 当前的存量房贷与新增房贷之间存在巨大鸿沟。目前新发放房贷利率已超过 6.5%（约 6.6%），而美国家庭现有的实际平均房贷利率仅为 4.3%。如果美国家庭像其他许多经济体那样面临浮动利率或自动重置为市场利率，每年的可支配收入将缩水整整 3000 亿美元。正是这笔锁定在 4.3% 利率下省出的巨额现金流，源源不断地流入消费领域，解释了为何零售消费在紧缩周期中依然表现坚挺。 - 全美拥有抵押贷款住房的家庭数量：约 5000 万户（全美家庭总数约 1.35 亿户）。 - 存量房贷实际平均利率：4.3%，而新发房贷市场利率超过 6.5%。 - 固定利率节省带来的额外年化可支配收入：约 3000 亿美元。 --- ### [28:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1682s) 世界杯天价球票：财富差距与消费阶层 为了具象化当前社会的消费能力，Michael 分享了一段在世界杯决赛现场随机采访观众票价的爆火视频。观众支付的门票价格令人瞠目结舌，从 2 万美元、3 万美元、5 万美元、7.3 万美元，甚至一路飙升到 9.6 万美元乃至 20 万美元一张。而台下这些观众的职业分布极为多元：既有模特、退休赚大钱的商人、私人股权投资人，也有 2011 年起步的流媒体网络主播。甚至还有堪萨斯城酋长队（Kansas City Chiefs）的主席兼 CEO，以及知名零食 Welch's 水果软糖的老板（面对身家提问他轻描淡写地回应：“你直接 Google 我就知道了”）。 除了自费天价购票外，还有大量手握特权的“受邀嘉宾”：有人因为所在公司向 SAP 采购了数百万美元的软件而拿到赠票，有人由 Verizon 招待，还有 Google 员工及各路名流。哪怕是一位自称“房屋油漆工”的观众，也为球票掏出了 9.6 万美元。Michael 开玩笑吐槽，这多出来的 3000 亿消费力全贡献给国际足联（FIFA）了；Ben 则戏谑道，这些动辄花十数万美元看一场比赛的人，钱大概全是“从锁定低息房贷里省出来的”。这生动地揭示出财富阶层内部的巨大鸿沟——能赚高薪是一层，拥有资产是一层，而随手能掏出 10 万到 20 万美元只为一场球赛体验的人，完全是另一个维度。 --- ### [29:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1791s) 4500万富裕家庭构成的庞大经济体 Ben 随后援引了一组令人震撼的宏观消费数据：全美最富裕的 4500 万户家庭（约占美国人口的三分之一）展现出无与伦比的消费体量。这 4500 万户家庭每年的总开销接近 15 万亿美元，这几乎相当于整个中国 GDP 的 70%，更是整个德国经济总规模的 3 倍。 这部分人群不仅完全免受本轮通胀冲击的负面影响，反而展现出由财富效应和强劲收入共同驱动的极高边际消费倾向。Ben 感叹，这 4500 万户家庭本身就已经构成了一个庞大且独立的微观经济体，甚至能在消费体量上与世界第二大经济体相提并论，凸显出美国经济依靠财富阶层狂热消费推动的独特底色。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 4500万美国家庭年度支出与其他经济体规模对比 accDescr: 展示全美最富裕的4500万户家庭年支出15万亿美元与中国及德国GDP的横向规模对比 subgraph US_Top["全美最富裕的 4500 万户家庭"] A["年度消费总开销<br><b>近 15 万亿美元</b>"] end subgraph Global_Compare["全球主要经济体对比"] B["中国经济总量 (GDP)<br><b>约占其 70%</b>"] C["德国经济总量 (GDP)<br><b>相当于其 3 倍</b>"] end A -.->|规模相当于| B A -.->|规模达到| C ``` --- ### [30:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1857s) Google 资本开支引爆财报抛售：巨头间的“胆小鬼博弈” 话题转向科技财报。Google 母公司 Alphabet 发布了亮眼季报，云业务同比增长 82%，YouTube 营收增长 24%，整体营收增长 14%。然而，财报公布后股价却遭遇重挫，从高点回撤达 18% 至 20%。引发市场恐慌的核心原因在于公司再度大幅上调资本支出（Capex），甚至录得了有史以来（或近年来）首个单季度负自由现金流。 CFO Ruth Porat 在电话会上的表态极具代表性，她明确强调行业依然处于“供应受限环境”，来自外部云客户以及内部各业务线的算力需求极度强劲。Google 的策略是只要看到有吸引力的长期回报，就会跨越多年维度激进扩张产能，因为当前的市场需求远超实际投资。Michael 和 Ben 讨论认为，华尔街开始对超大规模云厂商（Hyperscalers）永无止境的 AI 烧钱大战感到焦虑并用脚投票，但科技巨头们绝不会轻言减速。这变成了一场“胆小鬼博弈”（Game of Chicken），除非股价暴跌 40% 到 45% 真正触及底线，否则像 Sundar Pichai 这样的管理层根本不可能因为 20% 左右的正常回调就叫停 Capex。 在此期间，两人还穿插了一段关于 AI 开源与闭源阵营互撕的幽默互怼： - Michael 调侃 AI 巨头们现在的混战就像电影《王牌播音员》（Anchorman）里的帮派火拼。 - Ben 表示自己对“开源 vs 闭源”完全中立且毫无兴趣。 - Michael 随即嘲讽反击：“考虑到你才刚学会怎么用 Apple Pay，你对这个没立场我一点都不奇怪。” --- ### [33:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2010s) 私募信贷风波与牛市中的“爆雷股”淘金 谈到财报与另类投资，Blackstone（黑石）在其季报中透露，旗下拥有 3240 亿美元零售财富渠道资产的旗舰信贷基金 BCRED，在 4 月和 5 月面临赎回潮上升后，赎回压力已开始趋缓。此前在市场上被推上风口浪尖的 Blue Owl（目前股价仍较历史最高点重挫 64%）等私募信贷机构也暂时淡出舆论焦点。 Michael 指出，私募市场的危机向来是“慢动作式出轨”（a boring train wreck），从来不会像公开市场那样瞬间爆发；而财经媒体热衷于夸大违约，只要一段时间没有密集负面报道，就说明最坏的阶段已经过去。 两人最后探讨了本轮牛市中一个奇特的反差现象：尽管大盘整体处于牛市，但个股分化极度剧烈，盘面上充斥着从高点暴跌 30%、40% 乃至 50% 以上的公司。 - 无论抄底多么诱人，几乎每一家股价腰斩的暴跌公司背后，都能列出极其合理且充分的做空理由。 - 比如耐克（Nike）股价较峰值暴跌了 55%，引发了听众的广泛讨论。录制当天 Michael 正好穿着一件耐克 T 恤，以此作为引子，准备接下来进一步深挖耐克的困局与财报细节。 ### [35:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2120s) 耐克在年轻人中失宠？以及财报季的乐观预期 节目开场伴随着轻松的闲聊。Michael 开玩笑说自己录制节目前特意换了件衬衫，避免一周内在 The Compound 频道的多期视频里穿同一件衣服，自嘲这才是“专业人士”的素养；Ben 则调侃回应说这不过是他的“常规周二操作”。随后，话题转到了耐克（Nike）身上。听众们发来大量邮件反馈指出，耐克对现在的年轻一代（Gen Z 以及更年轻的千禧一代）已经失去了以往那种绝对统治力。年轻消费者如今拥有过多鞋服品牌选择，耐克不再是不可替代的文化图腾。尽管 Michael 和 Ben 均表示自己忠于耐克，“会穿耐克直到进坟墓”，但面对耐克股价重挫的走势，两人均明确表示目前没有抄底买入的打算。 转到整体美股财报季，数据传递出了相当强烈的乐观信号。标普500指数的每股收益（EPS）业绩指引动能评分（EPS Guidance Momentum Score）创下了有记录以来的新高，上调盈利预期的企业高管数量远超下调或维持不变者。Michael 借此指出市场估值变化背后微妙的心理偏差：当估值攀升、市场偏贵时，大家往往毫不怀疑地认同“股市太贵”；但当强劲的企业盈利推高 EPS、导致市盈率（P/E）估值自然回落时，市场却充满疑虑，怀疑盈利数字能否持续。 - **耐克品牌认知分化**：年轻群体选择更加碎片化多元化，但老一代消费者粘性依旧；两人目前对耐克股票均持观望态度。 - **EPS 预期上调**：高管大幅上修业绩指引，拉动整体估值倍数出现被动回落。 - **Google 的业绩修正**：在季度收益预期修正追踪图表中，Alphabet/Google 表现格外夸张，其盈利预期被大幅单向拉升（约 10%），大幅推高了科技板块的整体预期。 --- ### [37:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2254s) 韧性十足的美国消费者与信用卡消费代际分化 Capital One 和美国运通（American Express, AMX）的最新财报与电话会议披露，尽管面临物价与能源成本压力，美国普通消费者与宏观经济依旧展现出极强的韧性。失业率仍处于低位，新增就业岗位反弹，消费者资产负债表与偿还表现优异。美国运通的数据显示，美国消费者支出同比增长了 11%，创下 2018 年第一季度以来的最高增速。这种增长很大程度上由年轻群体和高端消费者驱动，尤其是在旅行与娱乐（T&E）品类上，同比增幅高达 30%（包括世界杯等高额消费盛事）。对于此前金融科技界热议的“软件将摧毁传统信用卡发卡行”的看空论调，Visa、Mastercard 和 AMX 强劲的股价走势与业务反弹给出了有力回击。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AMX Q2 Spending Growth by Generation accDescr: 年轻代际（Gen Z、Millennials）与老一代（Gen X、Boomers）在美国运通消费支出增长率上的鲜明对比。 subgraph YoungCohorts["高增长代际 (主力增量)"] GZ["Gen Z 增长: +40%<br/>(占总支出份额 7%)"] MIL["千禧一代 增长: +14%<br/>(与 Gen X 共占 31%~36%)"] end subgraph MatureCohorts["稳健代际 (存量基数)"] GX["Gen X 增长: +10%"] BB["婴儿潮一代 增长: +5%<br/>(占总支出份额 27%)"] end YoungCohorts --> TotalImpact["驱动旅行与娱乐支出同比激增 30%<br/>新开户中 65% 来自千禧一代与 Gen Z"] ``` 然而，运通披露的代际支出增幅差异引发了深层讨论：婴儿潮一代支出仅增 5%，Gen X 增长 10%，千禧一代增长 14%，而 Gen Z 支出同比狂飙 40%。运通甚至有 65% 的新获客直接来自千禧一代和 Gen Z。Michael 提出疑问：在 25 岁以下的年轻人中，贫富差距（The Haves vs. The Have-Nots）是否比以往任何时候都更加极化？在社交网络上，一方面有 20 多岁的年轻人动辄为世界杯消费数万美元，另一边则是大量年轻人深感买不起房、陷入经济焦虑。Ben 认为，部分增幅来自年轻人信用卡基数较低的统计效应，但不可否认的是，当代年轻人财富命运的离散度（Range of Outcomes）极其宽广。最后，两人还打趣了运通的机场贵宾厅（Centurion Lounge）文化：Ben 坚持自己是坚定的“反贵宾厅主义者”，即便家乡大急流城（Grand Rapids）机场扩建新航站楼并引入贵宾厅，他也宁愿在起飞前 10 分钟压哨安检登机，坚决不在机场浪费时间。 --- ### [41:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2490s) 世纪财富大转移：富人后代的继承与暗黑的“退休计划” Visa 发布了一份关于“世纪财富大转移”（The Great Wealth Transfer）的重磅报告。数据显示，在相同年龄段的人均实际净财富（通胀调整后）对比中，千禧一代与 Gen X 实际上已经跑赢了当年的婴儿潮一代。然而，舆论盛传的数万亿美元财富交接，本质上是一场高度集中的顶层分配。在排除税收与慈善捐赠后，未来 20 年预计将有大约 36 万亿美元被继承转移，其中大约 75% 的资产将直接流入前 10% 的极富阶层口袋；而且这 36 万亿美元中有 28 万亿预计会被继续储蓄或留存在投资组合中，仅有约 8 万亿美元会被真正花掉。 伴随这一话题，两人谈到了时下流行的一个网络梗：“随着婴儿潮一代离世，街头上自会有迹象（There will be signs）”——指的是五六十岁步入中老年的同龄人突然暴富，开始大买豪车、游艇和豪宅。Michael 透露自己曾半开玩笑地问妻子：身边某些生活优渥、花销巨大的朋友，其终极“退休计划”是不是干脆就是等待继承父母的遗产？因为按照他们日常的高额支出，根本不可能存下养老钱。Ben 戏谑地回应，如果以“父母终会去世”作为不可动摇的确定性，这确实是个“无懈可击”（ironclad）的计划。但这种寄生式养老极其冷酷残酷：父母究竟是 50 岁还是 70 岁将钱传下来，对子女的人生完全是两回事；当一个人年过半百、自己两手空空，却在心底暗暗抱怨“我父母怎么还活着”时，这不仅是一场现实的人性悲剧，也活脱脱是未来 Netflix 荒诞电影的绝佳黑色幽默题材。 - **继承财富分布极化**：36 万亿美元继承资产中，约 75% 归属于最富裕的 10% 家庭。 - **储蓄 vs. 消费**：受继承人群主要为高净值阶层影响，28 万亿美元将留在投资资产中，仅 8 万亿美元转化为实际消费。 - **残酷的继承变数**：随着人类预期寿命延长，等待继承作为退休策略不仅充满道德危机，而且在财务时间节点上面临极大不确定性。 ### [43:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2636s) 流媒体之争：奈飞的统治地位与注意力黑洞 在流媒体领域的竞争中，Netflix 依然展现出了惊人的主导地位：它一家就占据了全美流媒体观看时长的 57%，而紧随其后的亚马逊 Prime Video 仅占 11%。然而，Ben Carlson 和 Michael Batnick 展开讨论时却指出，几乎所有人都会承认 Netflix 如今的原创作品质量正处于“严重的低谷期”，似乎已经很久没有推出过真正叫好又叫座的爆款。两人回忆半天，Michael 甚至只能想起 Jason Bateman 主演的《黑兔》（*Black Rabbit*），而《怒呛人生》（*Beef*）第二季等后续作品的反响也只能算平平，可以说“已经很久没有制作出任何哪怕稍微具备高水准质感的东西了”。但数据显示，观众在流媒体上花的时间更多是在看经典老剧重播——剧集重播的观看时长，甚至超过了原创剧集、原创电影以及老电影观看时长的总和。这正如过去 TBS、TNT 和 USA 电视台的运营逻辑，正如 Ben 至今仍每天看《宋飞正传》（*Seinfeld*）重播一样；不过令人称奇的是，全网流媒体播放量前十的电影中 Netflix 独揽七部，且全部为 Netflix 原创。 与影视内容的强势相比，Netflix 涉足播客领域的开局却相当惨淡，节目往往仅能收获几千次观看。Ben 分析认为，通过 YouTube 收看视频播客早已成为用户的根深蒂固的习惯，而且 Spotify 现在也全面支持视频播客。既然大家手机里都有 YouTube 和 Spotify，谁还会专门为了看播客特意打开 Netflix 增加操作步骤？与此同时，社交媒体正在以前所未有的速度吞噬全社会的注意力。Michael 分享了他前几天晚上在火车上的亲身体验：他跟同事 Chris 坐在一起，整整 45 分钟两人都在刷 Instagram Reels 视频。Michael 忍不住开玩笑对非股民的 Chris 说道：“这就是为什么奈飞股价会跌 50% 的原因。”如今 Netflix 用户的观看时长年增速仅剩 1% 到 2%，因为 Instagram 和 TikTok 宛如“眼球磁铁”，让人一刷上头便彻底丧失时间感知，稍一回神才会惊觉“我刚才到底干了什么”。 - **流媒体观看份额**：Netflix 独占 57%，排名第二的 Prime Video 仅为 11%。 - **内容消费特征**：老剧重播总时长超越所有原创影视剧与老电影之和；但全网流媒体播放量前 10 的电影中有 7 部归属 Netflix（均为原创自制）。 - **用户时长瓶颈**：Netflix 整体观看时长年化增速已放缓至 1%–2%，短视频平台正分流海量屏幕时间。 --- ### [46:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2785s) IMAX 票房神话与“失传”的 70 毫米胶片技术 克里斯托弗·诺兰（Christopher Nolan）执导的新作打破了电影票房的固有规律。该片在 IMAX 创下了影史第二周最高票房纪录，全球次周票房斩获 4,800 万美元，相比开画首周仅微跌 8%。这带动 IMAX 单周总票房飙升至 5,400 万美元，创下其公司历史第三高单周纪录；该片在 IMAX 的全球累计票房突破 1.4 亿美元，全球票房指数达 22%，比同期的《奥本海默》（*Oppenheimer*，同期仅 8,100 万美元）整整超出了 73%。要知道《奥本海默》当年还有“芭比海默”（Barbenheimer）的现象级热度加持，而如今诺兰新片的口碑可谓“未尝败绩”。纽约等大城市的抢票狂潮达到了不可思议的地步：就连凌晨 1:45 和 2:00 的午夜场，全场除了第一排最偏的两个座位外也被一抢而空，未来一两个月的场次基本全面售罄。Ben 当晚只能退而求其次买 Dolby 影厅的票，而 Michael 则想硬等到 9 月份看 IMAX。 面对一票难求的盛况，IMAX 公司市值目前仅约 25 亿美元左右，市场上甚至有报道传出其可能会被大型资本收购。但观众和投资者最费解的问题是：既然供不应求、甚至有人愿出 1,000 美元买一张黄牛票，影院为什么不干脆多造几家专供诺兰电影的 70 毫米胶片 IMAX 影厅？全美目前仅有 25 块这种规格的巨幕（全球仅约 45 块）。据《综艺》（*Variety*）报道，背后的荒谬原因令人目瞪口呆：由于制造此类专用胶片放映机的零件现已彻底停产，原始设计图纸诞生于半个世纪前且从未妥善归档，IMAX 如今已丢失了完整的制造蓝图。现代工程界如同遗失了“阿波罗登月时代”的古老航天技术一样，当今世界上几乎没有任何工程师能够真正理解并复原这套复杂的系统。Michael 忍不住借机吐槽：“要是 AI 连这个都搞不定，我们造 AI 是为了啥？Claude，赶紧开始逆向工程干活去啊，多给我们造几块 IMAX 屏幕！” - **诺兰新片 IMAX 战绩**：次周末全球票房 4,800 万美元（跌幅仅 8%），推动 IMAX 创下 5,400 万美元影史第三高周票房，累计票房 1.4 亿美元（较《奥本海默》同期大幅领先 73%）。 - **70 毫米胶片影厅稀缺性**：全美仅存 25 块（全球约 45 块，例如密歇根州大急流城的一块建于 2001 年）。 - **技术失传之谜**：因半个世纪前的初始工程蓝图遗失且零件停产，形成行业“部落知识盲区”（tribal knowledge），目前无法直接仿造量产。 --- ### [49:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2977s) 致敬 Tony 与 Dina Isola：从讲台到理财，功成身退的传奇故事 节目的后半段转向了一段温馨而动人的内部人事里程碑：Ritholtz Wealth Management（RWM）为两位元老级投顾 Tony Isola 与 Dina Isola 夫妇举办了退休告别派对。Tony 和 Dina 大约在 2015 年加入公司，是早期的第 11 或 12 号员工，伴随公司从当初仅有十多人的初创团队一路发展到如今近 90 人的规模。两人不仅是出色的专业顾问，更是一对品格令人肃然起敬的伴侣。Tony 曾是一名华尔街大宗商品交易员，但后来极度反感那种冷血贪婪的交易环境，断定“那不是我该待的圈子，我要去世界上做真正有意义的事情”，于是毅然转身投身教育行业，在纽约市担任了近二十年的公立中学历史与社会学老师。 然而在教书期间，Tony 震惊地发现，金融机构正在将充满欺诈性、费率高昂且剥削严重的金融产品（如各类高收费可变年金）大肆推销给毫不知情的公立学校教师，肆意蚕食他们微薄的退休养老金。出于强烈的正义感与使命感，Tony 决定再次挺身而出。他起初在白天教书、晚上和妻子 Dina 一起为教师们提供基于低费率指数基金的买入持有咨询；为了抨击业内乱象，Tony 当年甚至把自己的个人博客起名为“Malice for All”（对所有人抱有恶意，化用林肯名言）。随着追随他们的教师越来越多，这项“纯粹出于热爱的护道之举”最终发展成了两人的第二份全职事业。如今夫妇俩步入花甲之年，身体健康，选择在此时正式退休享受人生。在告别派对上，Tony 留给 Michael 一句发人深省的退休箴言：“你的金钱在增长，而你的时间在缩水”（"Your money is growing and your time is shrinking"）。两位主持人感慨万千，既惊叹于时光荏苒、身边并肩作战的战友已经迎来退休时刻，也由衷敬佩这对用半生保护教师养老金的模范同仁。 ### [52:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3158s) 水上乐园的纹身热潮与全美最大木质过山车 Ben Carlson 分享了自己带孩子去游乐园的经历。该乐园规模大约只有雪松角乐园（Cedar Point）的一半，集陆地过山车与水上乐园于一体，并且拥有号称“全美甚至全球最大”的木质过山车（名为 Shiver Me Timbers）。Ben 开玩笑表示，看着那些历经风霜的老旧木板，心里其实一点底都没有，甚至怀疑“这玩意儿到底是怎么固定在一起不散架的”。当天妻子白天先带孩子们过去，Ben 忙完工作后在下午 5 点赶赴水上乐园与家人会合，准备给孩子们一个惊喜，并赶在晚上 8 点闭园前陪他们痛痛快快玩几趟过山车。 在水上乐园期间，Ben 注意到了一个极具时代特征的现象：乐园里目测至少有 50% 的年轻父母身上都带刺青。两人不禁感慨，这与他们小时候的成长环境截然不同。当年哪怕偶尔见到纹身，通常也只是某位曾在海军服役的父亲手臂上纹着一枚褪色斑驳的船锚，而如今纹身已经演变为主流父母表达个性的普及方式。 随后，Ben 带着儿子 George 和女儿 Libby 去坐了那座巨型木质过山车。这趟过山车看似平缓，实则全是陡峭的垂直俯冲，速度远超视觉预期。坐在后排的 Ben 亲眼目睹了平日在网络搞笑集锦中才会见到的离奇场面：每次过山车冲下陡坡，前面的儿子 George 就会因极速带来的肾上腺素激增或大脑瞬间供血不足而当场昏厥、全身瘫软；但一旦俯冲结束回到平轨，小家伙又立刻满血苏醒，高高举起双手大笑着欢呼。整趟运行中，George 就在“俯冲昏厥—瘫软—苏醒举手欢呼”之间不断循环。 Michael 听到这里惊呼“你是在打比方还是真的”，甚至难以置信地询问 Ben 是否被吓破了胆。Ben 笑着澄清这绝对是真事，而且场面极其滑稽，坐在旁边的姐姐 Libby 起初还以为弟弟在开玩笑，后来发现他整个人是彻底软倒了。更逗的是，George 自己完全没有意识到发生了什么，下车后还一本正经地叮嘱老爸：“接下来每坐一次，你都得帮我看着点，确保我别昏过去。” ### [54:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3295s) 夏令营探访日与九岁儿子的“初恋古龙水” 随着身体恢复约八成，Michael 聊起了周日驱车前往夏令营的探访日（Visiting Day）。这个长达七周的夏令营整个夏季只开放一次探视，他在清晨 5 点起床、6 点启程，准时赶在上午 10 点入营。探访过程非常温馨融洽，但九岁的儿子 Kobe 却在私下悄悄向妈妈 Robin 透露了一个严守的小秘密——他想要一瓶古龙香水（Cologne）。 得知这个秘密的 Michael 既觉得好笑又有些匪夷所思。由于下周末小儿子 Logan 还要参加为期一天的营地体验日（Rookie Day），Michael 曾忍不住向夏令营负责人“抱怨”：“兄弟，你已经接手管孩子整整七周了，怎么还能连着毁掉我两个周末的休息时间？”面对儿子的古龙水诉求，已离开香水领域多年的 Michael 只好向 Ben 请教适合九岁男童的“入门级古龙水”。Ben 直言自己大学毕业后就很少喷香水，甚至认为大部分人结婚之后就基本告别古龙水了，顺势打趣建议可以考虑 Abercrombie 或阿玛尼的寄情水（Acqua Di Gio），制作人 Duncan 甚至在后台起哄不如直接买老派硬汉最爱的“Brut”。 当 Robin 追问儿子为何急需香水时，Kobe 透露营地里即将举办一场正式的毕业舞会（Camp Prom）。Michael 探访时曾特意八卦儿子有没有交女朋友，Kobe 认真地回答：“没有，但我准备去参加舞会了。”追问之下，Kobe 甚至坦白自己连女伴的名字都不知道，原因仅仅是对方走过来问他想不想一起去，而他当时只回答了一个单词——“Sure（好啊）”。两人完全被九岁孩子纯真的社交逻辑逗乐，Ben 调侃道，或许在买古龙水之前，先给他备上一支止汗除臭剂才更符合现实需求。 ### [57:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3442s) 惨烈的肠胃炎与“第15副”遗失的 AirPods 周一清晨，探访归来的 Michael 遭遇了一场狼狈的突发健康危机。由于周五参加了公司的退休欢送会，周六又在外奔波了一整天，Michael 早上 5 点 50 分醒来后原本打算趁着清早去星巴克喝杯咖啡，并在全家去海滩前赶完积压的工作。然而，刚走出星巴克，他便感到腹中剧烈翻江倒海，一路狂奔冲进洗手间发生了剧烈的喷射性呕吐。 呕吐过后感觉稍有缓解的 Michael 以为只是吃坏了肚子，便回家躺在泳池边的躺椅上休息。当时他把耳机从耳朵上取下，随手放在手机屏幕上，而家里刚满一岁半的拳师犬 Ru 突然跑过来蹭弄，结果一爪子将耳机打飞，精准地弹进泳池池底。Michael 苦笑着自嘲：“这大概是我报销的第 11 副，甚至可能是第 15 副 AirPods 了。” 倒霉接踵而至，伴随着心痛耳机的瞬间，他的胃部再次剧烈痉挛，只能冲回屋内继续呕吐。从早上 6 点半到 11 点，Michael 一共剧烈呕吐了四次，整个人虚弱不堪。幽默的是，Ben 见状打趣他看上去消瘦清秀了不少，Michael 则无可奈何地吐槽，自己今年夏天饮食非常不健康，原以为吐成这样上秤称重怎么也能掉几斤称，结果站上体重秤发现居然连半磅都没减下来，简直匪夷所思。 ### [59:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3549s) 病榻刷片录：从烂片雷区到二战气候战奇片《Pressure》 在周一因病卧床整整 20 个小时的时间里，极度疲惫的 Michael 开启了漫无目的的观影打发时间： - **《宇宙巨人希曼》（Masters of the Universe）**：Michael 尝试观看了新版电影，结果开场仅 4 分钟就实在忍受不了低幼的调性而选择关掉，直言这纯粹是给小孩子拍的。同为主持人的 Ben 则表示自己上周末刚陪孩子们看了一半，大儿子尤其喜欢，觉得影片风格有点像漫威的《雷神》（Thor）系列，既有跨维度的奇幻感，又带点无厘头自嘲，孩子们甚至已经开始期待第二部。 - **《真人快打 2》（Mortal Kombat 2）**：Michael 随后转战该片，坚持看了大约 25 分钟后同样因为质量欠佳而放弃。 - **《压力》（Pressure）**：病榻上唯一一部被 Michael 从头到尾完整看完的佳作。影片由布兰登·费舍（Brendan Fraser）饰演盟军最高指挥官艾森豪威尔，聚焦于诺曼底登陆（D-Day）前夕最为关键的 72 小时。全片的核心冲突并非前线交火，而是两组拥有不同预测模型的顶级气象学家之间展开的高智商辩论——在恶劣的天气与严苛的海潮窗口期下，盟军究竟该如期发起进攻还是推迟行动。Michael 盛赞这部将天气预报与历史命运紧密交织的电影极为精彩，绝对是不可多得的“卧病在床或长途飞机神片”；而 Ben 则开玩笑感叹，好莱坞为了拍二战题材如今甚至把脑筋动到了气象学家的身上。 ### [01:01:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3663s) 电影推荐：《调音师》（Tuner）与意外惊喜 迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）聊起自己在生病卧床休养期间看的影视作品。除了前一部略显沉闷但完成度尚可的影片外，他特别提到上周看的一部名为《调音师》（Tuner）的电影。本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）对此表示完全没听过。迈克尔形容这部影片的气质非常像萨弗迪兄弟（Safdie Brothers）的风格，带着一种类似《原钻》（Uncut Gems）那种令人窒息的混乱与紧迫感，同时因为包含潜入与入室盗窃的情节，又让他联想到大卫·芬奇的《战栗空间》（Panic Room）。 更让人感到意外的是，达斯汀·霍夫曼（Dustin Hoffman）竟然也参演了这部戏。影片的核心设定围绕一名拥有超凡“超音速听力”的主角展开，他凭借能够清晰听辨保险箱锁芯精密转动的“咔哒”声，成为了一名顶尖的开锁大盗。本听完这个设定后立刻表现出了浓厚的兴趣。迈克尔表示这部电影非常有趣且值得一看，自己是在 Amazon Prime 上租借观看的。 - **电影特点**：叙事节奏紧凑混乱，兼具犯罪悬疑与紧张氛围，达斯汀·霍夫曼惊喜加盟。 - **核心设定**：主角拥有超凡敏锐的听力，能够依靠锁芯转动的细微机械声破解各种高难度保险箱。 --- ### [01:01:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3718s) 吐槽大导新片：名导的“奇才队乔丹”滑铁卢时刻 随后话题转向了近期上映的外星人题材新片《Disclosure Day》。本和妻子在周末看完了这部电影，而迈克尔直言自己完全没去影院看，因为搭档乔什·布朗（Josh Brown）早就提前“排雷”，痛批这部片子拍得极烂。本深表赞同，感叹庆幸自己没有花钱去电影院看。这部电影在 IMDb 上评分仅有 6.6 分，在本看来这个分数都已经严重给高了。本吐槽说预告片剪辑得极其抓人眼球，让人误以为是一部不可多得的科幻杰作，但正片却是一场灾难。整部戏节奏破碎混乱，一开场就仿佛把观众直接扔在半截剧情中，通篇显得东拼西西凑，充斥着廉价的“网飞流水线电影”质感。 更让人难以接受的是本片堪称豪华的神仙阵容：不仅有艾米莉·布朗特（Emily Blunt）坐镇，还有在《王冠》中饰演查尔斯王子的乔什·奥康纳（Josh O'Connor）以及奥斯卡影帝科林·费尔斯（Colin Firth）等一众实力派演员。迈克尔打趣提醒道，千万别忽视这根本不是什么网飞网大，而是出自一位名垂影史的传奇大导演之手。本无奈地将其比作“华盛顿奇才时期的迈克尔·乔丹”——虽然是一段不堪回首的滑铁卢，但他决定假装这部电影从未发生过。毕竟这位导演曾经拍出过《大白鲨》（Jaws）、《夺宝奇兵》（Indiana Jones）、《E.T. 外星人》（E.T.）、《第三类接触》（Close Encounters of the Third Kind）和《侏罗纪公园》（Jurassic Park）等传世经典，影评界即便失望也大多手下留情，享有终身豁免权。 - **观影感受**：正片开场仅五分钟便让人顿感不妙，剧情支离破碎，本在自己的评分体系中只肯给出 5.9 分。 - **口碑反差**：虽然拥有顶配演员阵容和极佳的预告片质感，但成片质量严重拉胯，沦为大导演生涯罕见的失准之作。 --- ### [01:04:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3850s) 摇滚乐队 Rush 与《寻找伴郎》情结 迈克尔紧接着兴奋地透露了自己第二天的重磅行程：他打算去现场看传奇摇滚乐队 Rush 的演出。本听到这个名字时一时没反应过来，迈克尔解释道，自己对 Rush 的狂热很大程度上源于喜剧电影《寻找伴郎》（I Love You, Man）的情怀。在电影中，保罗·路德和杰森·席格尔饰演的角色正是因为对 Rush 的共同狂热而结为挚友，甚至在演唱会现场做出了疯狂舔贝斯的经典无厘头场面。 本感到十分诧异，疑惑 Rush 这支老牌前卫摇滚乐队如今是否仍处于巡演状态，毕竟乐队传奇鼓手尼尔·佩尔特（Neil Peart）已经离世，人员多有更替。迈克尔则笑着表示不管人员如何变动，自己依然对能够去现场朝圣兴奋不已。 --- ### [01:04:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3886s) 迈克尔的“流感之战”与男士香水大讨论 播客接近尾声，本由衷地赞许迈克尔带病坚持录完整期节目的敬业态度。迈克尔自豪地调侃道：“我们从不缺席任何一期节目，这就是我们的作风。”本立刻笑着拆台，指出迈克尔每隔三个月就会上演一场如同迈克尔·乔丹般的“流感之战”（flu game）。迈克尔连忙为自己辩解，坚称自己平时极少生病，体质相对不错；本则搬出制作人邓肯（Duncan）当证人，指出迈克尔三个月前才刚刚因为身体抱恙在床上整整躺了 24 小时，迈克尔不得不承认今年冬天确实得过一次流感。 节目最后，两人还顺着上期话题为迈克尔的儿子征集男士香水推荐。本提到了阿玛尼寄情（Acqua di Giò），随后又极力推荐约翰尼·德普代言的迪奥旷野（Dior Sauvage），大赞其气味格外好闻。迈克尔敏锐地抓住了漏洞，当面质问本之前还声称自己从大学毕业后就再也没喷过香水，怎么现在对各种大牌男香如数家珍。本不得不笑着招供，承认自己最近正准备“重返香水战场”。最后，两人公布了播客互动邮箱（animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com），承诺每一封私人邮件都会亲自回复，并在欢快的片尾曲中结束了本期节目。 - **敬业打卡**：迈克尔克服身体不适完成录制，被戏称为周期性上演“流感之战”。 - **男香种草**：从经典阿玛尼寄情（Acqua di Giò）聊到迪奥旷野（Dior Sauvage），意外套出了本打算重拾喷香水习惯的真实心声。 ## Notable quotes > [03:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=188s) I'm not even mad, I'm impressed. — Michael Batnick > [49:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2977s) Your money is growing and your time is shrinking — Tony Isola > [20:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1258s) 股票本身就是高波动资产，如果这种波动向上走，就能实现财富飞跃；如果加了 5 倍杠杆，我的财富积累速度就能比别人快 5 倍。 — 李成浩 > [24:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1476s) 现在的草堆本身就已经包含了庞大的私募市场 — 先锋领航发言人 > [28:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1682s) 你直接 Google 我就知道了 — Welch's 水果软糖老板 > [30:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=1857s) 考虑到你才刚学会怎么用 Apple Pay，你对这个没立场我一点都不奇怪。 — Michael Batnick > [46:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2785s) 要是 AI 连这个都搞不定，我们造 AI 是为了啥？Claude，赶紧开始逆向工程干活去啊，多给我们造几块 IMAX 屏幕！ — Michael Batnick > [49:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=2977s) 那不是我该待的圈子，我要去世界上做真正有意义的事情 — Tony Isola > [52:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3158s) 接下来每坐一次，你都得帮我看着点，确保我别昏过去。 — George Carlson > [57:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3442s) 这大概是我报销的第 11 副，甚至可能是第 15 副 AirPods 了。 — Michael Batnick > [01:04:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU&t=3886s) 我们从不缺席任何一期节目，这就是我们的作风。 — Michael Batnick ## Mentioned Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson, Josh Brown, Ron Baron, Jurrien Timmer, Mitch Staple, Jack Bogle, Ruth Porat, Sundar Pichai, Christopher Nolan, Tony Isola, Dina Isola, Brendan Fraser, Dustin Hoffman, Emily Blunt, Josh O'Connor, Colin Firth, Neil Peart, YCharts, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Blackstone, Vanguard, Wellington Management, Merrill Lynch, SpaceX, Tesla, Nvidia, Micron Technology, Western Digital, SanDisk, Seagate Technology, Marvell, Corning, Google, Alphabet, YouTube, Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Spotify, Instagram, TikTok, American Express, Capital One, Visa, Mastercard, Nike, IMAX, MGM+, Shudder, Blue Owl, FIFA, SAP, Verizon, Rush, The Westies, Anchorman, Oppenheimer, Seinfeld, Beef, Black Rabbit, Pressure, Tuner, Disclosure Day, I Love You, Man, AirPods, Acqua Di Gio, Dior Sauvage ## Video description On episode 475 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: a good sign for the bull market, semiconductor stocks crashing, why valuations keep falling, everyone is bearish about bonds, South Korea traders, how big SpaceX could get, why people keep spending money, Netflix is still dominating streaming, why there aren't more IMAX theaters and more. This episode is sponsored by YCharts. To learn more and get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription to take Y for a spin (new customers only), visit https://go.ycharts.com/animal-spirits ► 00:00 - YCharts Ad ► 00:57 - Intro ► 01:21 - Stock Market ► 20:59 - Investor Behavior ► 26:44 - The Economy ► 30:58 - AI & Google ► 33:30 - Private Markets ► 35:12 - Nike ► 36:13 - Earnings Season ► 37:34 - Personal Finance & Credit Cards ► 41:30 - The Great Wealth Transfer ► 43:45 - Streaming & Entertainment ► 46:25 - IMAX ► 49:37 - Retirement Party for Tony & Dina at Ritholtz ► 52:34 - Storytime | Roller Coasters & Cologne ► 59:16 - Recommendations 👕 Check out The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com 🎙️Listen to our podcasts: TCAF: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/ Animal Spirits: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/animalspirits/ Ask The Compound: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/ATC/ The Compound Newsletter: https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Josh Brown and Michael Batnick are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. #thecompound #investing #stockmarket [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtTFcivsQHU)

[3:08] Michael Batnick: I'm not even mad, I'm impressed. [49:37] Tony Isola: Your money is growing and your time is shrinking [20:58] 李成浩: 股票本身就是高波动资产，如果这种波动向上走，就能实现财富飞跃；如果加了 5 倍杠杆，我的财富积累速度就能比别人快 5 倍。 [24:36] 先锋领航发言人: 现在的草堆本身就已经包含了庞大的私募市场 [28:02] Welch's 水果软糖老板: 你直接 Google 我就知道了 [30:57] Michael Batnick: 考虑到你才刚学会怎么用 Apple Pay，你对这个没立场我一点都不奇怪。 [46:25] Michael Batnick: 要是 AI 连这个都搞不定，我们造 AI 是为了啥？Claude，赶紧开始逆向工程干活去啊，多给我们造几块 IMAX 屏幕！ [49:37] Tony Isola: 那不是我该待的圈子，我要去世界上做真正有意义的事情 [52:38] George Carlson: 接下来每坐一次，你都得帮我看着点，确保我别昏过去。 [57:22] Michael Batnick: 这大概是我报销的第 11 副，甚至可能是第 15 副 AirPods 了。 [64:46] Michael Batnick: 我们从不缺席任何一期节目，这就是我们的作风。

[3:08] Ben Carlson: I'm not even mad; I'm impressed. [15:22] Ben Carlson: 0 to 5 was an enormous amount of pain for bonds... now it feels like if it's going to be painful, it's a death by a thousand cuts, whereas before you got pushed off of a cliff with no parachute. [20:58] The reality is markets have changed... The haystack now includes private markets, which our clients today just don't have much access to. [26:44] Interviewer: How much did you spend on your ticket? [26:44] Fan 6: Not enough, there's no experience like the World Cup final. [43:45] Michael Batnick: There's never been more options to do stuff to keep your attention than today... You do that for like 10 minutes and you go, 'What did I just do?' [46:22] Much like the lost tribal knowledge of the Apollo Spacecraft, very few engineers working today fully understand the systems. If AI can't figure this out, what are we building it for? [49:37] Tony Isola: Your money is growing and your time is shrinking. [52:34] Michael Batnick: He told Robin in confidence... He wants cologne... He's nine years old!

[0:04] Today's show is sponsored by Y Charts. [0:06] If you're a financial adviser, you [0:08] already know the hardest part of the job [0:09] isn't finding the data. It's turning [0:11] that data into clear, confident [0:12] conversations and visuals clients [0:14] actually understand. Y Charts helps [0:16] advisers research faster, visualize [0:19] market data clearly, and turn complex [0:21] portfolio questions into client ready [0:22] insights. On average, advisers using Y [0:25] Charts save around 20 hours a month [0:26] across proposals, research, and client [0:28] prep. And now with built-in AI tools, [0:31] advisers can quickly surface key [0:32] takeaways, understand what changed and [0:34] why, and spend less time digging through [0:36] data. Whether you're comparing [0:38] portfolios, stress testing strategies, [0:40] or answering tough client questions in [0:41] real time, Y Charts cuts through the [0:43] noise and keeps your clients focused on [0:45] what matters most. Learn more at [0:47] ycharts.com or click the link in the [0:49] show notes to start a free trial and get [0:51] 20% off your initial Y charts [0:53] professional subscription. That's your [0:55] new customers only. Welcome to Animal [0:57] Spirits with Michael and Ben. It [music] [0:59] is Monday, July 27th. Why Why am I [1:04] opening the show with a date? Because [1:07] usually Ben and I record on Tuesday [1:09] morning. Uh although, you know what? [1:12] What's the difference? We recorded at [1:13] the close on Monday, the opening on [1:14] Tuesday. Same thing, [1:15] >> right? That's why I wanted to do it at [1:17] 4:00. [1:18] >> No difference. Credit to you. All right, [1:19] let's jump right into it. Uh this is an [1:22] unusual was an unusual day for the [1:25] market. This is an interesting time for [1:26] the market and today got a little funky. [1:29] So the selloff in semi and some of the [1:33] hardware related names, all the AI [1:35] infrastructure buildout, all of the [1:37] things that we've been speaking about [1:38] over the last 6 months, the momentum [1:40] that was severely extended, we're now on [1:43] the other side of that. uh at one point [1:47] during the late afternoon and I assume [1:48] the close was was basically this [1:51] semiconductors were down 4% on the day [1:54] and software the anti- AI semi trade was [1:58] up 3.3%. Going back to 1989 we have a [2:01] scatter plot for those of you who are [2:02] listening not watching. This is unusual. [2:05] This is an absolute uh outlier of a day. [2:10] >> Wow. I mean that that's like the stock [2:12] market getting killed and bonds doing [2:14] well or something. I don't know what the [2:15] the comparison of that. So, okay. So, [2:18] here's I just I just ran this too. We're [2:20] we're on the same uh wavelength this [2:21] week from the highs and this happened [2:24] really quick. Micron is down 27%. [2:27] Western Digital down 34%. SanDisk is [2:29] down 46%. Seagate technology is down [2:32] 26%. These are all the semiconductor [2:35] memory names that would be found in that [2:37] DRAM portfolio. So, [2:40] Again, this was an easy one to call that [2:42] it would happen, but I think this to me, [2:44] for all the bubble talk, this is good [2:46] news. And why is this good news? The [2:47] stock market is 2% off all-time highs. [2:50] The stuff under the surface, this is one [2:52] of the great things about the stock [2:53] market. There are some stocks getting [2:55] absolutely hammered right now. And yet, [2:57] the S&P is basically at an all-time [2:59] high. [2:59] >> Wait, it's not just some stocks. It's [3:00] the leadership stocks, [3:02] >> right? [3:03] >> And uh in the stock market is flat [3:05] today. Nvidia is down 5%. [3:08] >> Ben, look at these next two charts. It's [3:09] good news, right? [3:10] >> It's great news. Uh your your voice [3:12] inlected four octaves [3:15] on that one. You are really excited. [3:18] This is good news. So, Chart Kid, [3:20] >> you you told me I'm not excited enough [3:21] about short-term stuff in the stock [3:22] market. I'm I'm giving you excitement [3:24] here. [3:24] >> Lean in. All right. I love it. Um All [3:26] right. So, we've got two charts. One is [3:29] the average 52- week draw down of [3:32] semiconductors or as Ben says [3:34] semiconductors [3:36] and 27% [3:37] >> Wait, did I really say that? [3:38] >> You always say that. [3:40] You say semiconductors. [3:42] >> Oh, you said semi. [3:45] >> Well, you say semiconductors. [3:46] >> Okay. [3:47] >> Um, so the average is down 27%. Marll is [3:51] down 41%. [3:53] Um, and then we've got tech, hardware, [3:55] and equipment stock draw down. So this [3:57] is Western Dig Corning Sandisk was just [4:00] by the way San Sandis was so freaking [4:02] extended dude it's in a 45% draw down [4:06] >> and if you zoom out more than like 3 [4:10] months it looks nor it still looks like [4:11] it's it still looks like it's in an [4:13] uptrend [4:15] >> it basically got cut in half and it's [4:17] still in an uptrend [4:18] >> in the last year the stock is still up [4:19] 2900%. [4:22] And it's down 46%. [4:23] >> That sounds that sounds amazing. [4:25] >> That sounds fake. That's a Ron Burgundy. [4:27] I'm not even mad. I'm impressed. [4:28] >> So, it is unbelievable [4:32] that the part of the market that people [4:35] were calling the bubble is debubbling or [4:39] deflating and yet the market the S&P 500 [4:42] was actually up today. The equation [4:46] >> the equal was up about 40 something [4:47] basis. [4:48] >> First it was the mag 7 sold off market [4:50] did fine. Now it's a semi then said oh [4:52] well that's cuz it's just the memory [4:54] stocks. Now they're selling off and the [4:55] market is still fine. [4:57] >> Now I will say there is there are some [5:00] >> is just a Rasputin market never dies. [5:02] >> You know what I gotta be honest I don't [5:04] know what Rasputin is or who he is. Was [5:06] this like a a child's tale? What is [5:08] this? Who's Rasputin? [5:09] >> Put it into chat GBT. The only reason I [5:11] really the only reason I really learned [5:13] about it is because Wayne F was the old [5:15] Lions coach and Chris Bur say he's like [5:16] Rasputin. He just won't die. They [5:17] wouldn't fire him. Uh, Rasputin is this [5:20] guy in Russia back in the day when some [5:21] big revolution happened and they tried [5:23] to kill him like five times and he [5:24] wouldn't die. They give him poison, they [5:26] stab him, all this stuff and he just [5:27] wouldn't die. So you say something that [5:28] won't die as Rasputin. [5:29] >> Ah, I didn't realize I was talking to a [5:31] Russian historian over there. [5:32] >> That's right. [5:33] >> Not bad. [5:33] >> Hey, comrade. [5:34] >> So anyway, um, all right. As Rasputin as [5:37] this market is and and it is all those [5:39] things, Teflon, whatever you want to [5:40] call it, we've been we've been saying [5:41] this. There are things to look at under [5:45] the surface that are worth paying [5:46] attention to or at least just yeah just [5:48] put them on your radar. Consumer staple [5:50] stocks are ripping. Coca-Cola, boring [5:54] names like that. Um, [5:57] uh, credit spreads are widening, [5:59] especially the junkier you go, getting a [6:02] little bit wider. No, nothing nothing to [6:04] uh be alarmist about by any stretch, but [6:08] uh and I think all of this is happening [6:10] with the sense that maybe the Fed is [6:11] hiking this week. [6:14] >> No way. There's no way he hikes on his [6:16] first like [6:17] >> first real meeting. [6:18] >> Neil D called Neil Dada called it today. [6:21] >> Well, someone has said because if you [6:23] call it and they do it like you're a [6:25] legend if they you call and they don't [6:27] do it. Yeah. Well, they would have. [6:28] >> Neil D is a legend in my in my eyes [6:29] either way. [6:30] >> Okay. just because he's a Knicks fan. Uh [6:33] so, okay. So, you're saying there's some [6:34] I I think this is the big thing that [6:36] people are trying to say. The the the if [6:38] if we you and I were on CNBC right now, [6:40] we'd say, listen, late cycle behavior. [6:42] This is late cycle behavior, right? The [6:44] market is broadening out. Consumer [6:46] staples credit like this is late cycle [6:48] behavior. What does that mean? I don't [6:49] know. We've been in the ninth inning for [6:51] like 12 years, [6:52] >> dude. No, you're you're right. The the [6:54] bulls have earned the benefit of the [6:55] doubt and then some. [6:57] >> So, here's here's another what I think [6:58] is good news. So, the momentum factor [7:01] had just one of the craziest runs it's [7:03] ever had because through April, momentum [7:06] stocks, and I'm using the iShares [7:07] Momentum Factor ETF, MTUM, through [7:10] April, we're down almost 10% on the [7:13] year. [7:14] >> Then 3 months later, we're up almost 40% [7:17] on the year, and now it's up. So, it [7:19] went it went from being negative to up [7:21] 40% in 3 months, and now in the last [7:23] month, it's gone from a gain of almost [7:25] 40% to a gain of now the year-to- date [7:27] gain is 20%. So this feels a little more [7:28] healthy. This is more normal. The gains [7:31] that we were seeing through April were [7:32] clearly unsustainable and not we're not [7:34] this is not like uh captain hindsight. [7:36] Everybody at the time was saying this is [7:38] unhealthy. Like micron growing up 13% a [7:41] day. This is abnormal. It pulling back [7:43] is very normal. [7:44] >> Every time it seems like the market is [7:46] just going to like just rip and just [7:48] like okay fine let's do this. You want [7:50] to really do this? Let's do it. It [7:51] doesn't happen. There's like there's [7:54] some something that happens where [7:56] investors just have enough sense to go [7:58] let's not take this too far. [8:00] >> I feel like there's a natural governor [8:02] on the upside and for as much nonsense [8:05] mania as there is like the market is [8:08] acting uh a little bit sober which is [8:10] nice [8:12] on another one from duality research we [8:14] keep highlighting the forward PE ratio [8:16] for the S&P keeps falling. [8:18] >> Can I say something? Hold on. I'm sorry [8:19] to cut you off. The word sober just [8:21] triggered a an experience for me. [8:23] >> Okay, [8:24] >> so this this is my second flu game of [8:26] the year, flu podcast of the season. I'm [8:30] sick. I'm like 80% better, but I was in [8:33] bed all day [8:36] uh yesterday morning today. So all day [8:38] from Sunday until today, I got out of [8:41] bed at at noon today and I slept like a [8:44] dog. I I think I slept for 20 straight [8:46] hours. I'm watching a show called The [8:48] Westies. [8:51] What's that on? [8:51] >> It's a brand new show on MGM Plus. And I [8:54] said to myself, I got [8:55] >> MGM Plus. You're really slimming it, [8:56] huh? [8:57] >> It got recommended to me by four [8:58] different people. I said, I'm not I [8:59] can't in our inbox. [9:01] >> I can't sign up for another streaming [9:02] service. It's enough already. But [9:04] because I already paid for shutter it [9:05] was it's $3 a month. All right, fine. [9:06] Give me Give me Give me the Westies. Um [9:08] it's about the build out of the Javit [9:10] Center [9:11] and JK Simmons is head of the Irish [9:13] mafia and he's going to war with the [9:16] Italians, Gotti and Castellano. Anyway, [9:20] >> decent. [9:20] >> Yeah, it's pretty good. It's actually [9:22] quite good. Um, [9:23] >> okay. It's funny. You always say that [9:25] you never get sick, but once every 3 [9:27] months, you're in bed for like 24 hours [9:29] straight. [9:29] >> Okay. But in between those 3 months [9:30] period, I'm never sick. I I only get [9:32] sick when I am. [9:35] >> I don't know. I I'm the one who never [9:36] gets sick. I don't I want to knock on [9:37] wood here, but like I don't just get [9:39] taken out for like 48 hours in a row [9:41] from a bug. I feel like that happens to [9:43] you all the time. Well, there is a [9:45] severe bug going around the Northeast. [9:48] And not just that lettuce bug. There's [9:50] also E. coli in one of the camps. So [9:52] >> Oh, that's right. That's that's what [9:53] happened to you. You just ate Taco Bell. [9:54] >> No, no, no. Yeah. Anyway, I'll I'll I'll [9:57] share more in the in the show later. But [9:59] uh but I did get food poisoning or some [10:01] sort of stomach bug. So I was th I threw [10:02] up five times yesterday morning. It was [10:03] horrendous. This projectile vomiting. [10:05] >> Well, this forward P ratio looks like [10:07] it's projectile, right? [10:08] >> Wait, I didn't tell you. Let me just [10:10] finish why I even [10:12] went on this tangent. You said I said [10:15] the word sober. So, there's a scene in [10:18] uh the Westies where where they're [10:21] drinking and this is the Irish, you [10:22] know, they they drink a lot and I was [10:24] almost nausey. I almost had to fast [10:26] forward. That's how sick I was. The like [10:28] the look of the the watching them take [10:30] shots of Jameson almost made me throw up [10:31] again. [10:32] >> Ah, that that's a shot that never goes [10:34] down smooth. Irish whiskey. [10:36] >> Oh, come on. And you and I have had [10:37] plenty of shots of Jameson together, [10:39] have we not? [10:39] >> Yeah, but it never goes down smooth. [10:40] That's what I'm saying. I love drinking [10:42] it, but it never goes down smooth. [10:43] >> Take whistle before next playoff game. [10:44] Always goes down smooth. [10:46] >> All right. [10:46] >> All right. Anyway, sorry. Back to the [10:48] back to the 4p. [10:49] >> Yeah, I was saying the 4p is also [10:50] puking. It just it keeps going down. And [10:52] it's not like it not like you can say, [10:53] "Oh, stocks are so cheap." But I don't [10:56] know. The the 4p ratio is not that much [10:59] higher today than it was on the [11:00] liberation day lows. Then it was trading [11:02] at 18 times forward earnings. Today it's [11:04] 19.5. [11:06] It's kind of unbelievable because the [11:07] stock market is up how much since then? [11:10] >> Quite a bit. Quite a bit. A lot. Right. [11:12] >> So, liberation day lows as well as the [11:15] uh the war selloff, [11:17] >> right? That was a thing that happened [11:19] right for like a week. [11:22] >> I don't know if this is bo I don't know [11:23] if this is more bullish or like do do [11:25] you I think this is interesting. I don't [11:27] know there's like signal in here [11:30] >> for the for the 4P falling. [11:33] >> Yeah. I'm not going to look at this [11:34] chart and pound the table on like [11:35] further upside because the PE is coming [11:36] down. I think the PE is coming down [11:38] because the market is saying we don't [11:39] believe the E. We don't believe. [11:40] >> I just think it [11:42] >> Yeah. Well, that that obviously that's [11:43] part of it with the memory stocks. I [11:45] just think it's hilarious that for years [11:46] and years and years people have been [11:48] saying the stock market is overvalued [11:50] and now valuations are falling. [11:53] It's just kind of interesting to me. Uh [11:55] although I I subscribe to the notion [11:56] that for the market as a whole [11:57] valuations really don't matter unless we [12:00] get to like a 50p. I don't think [12:01] valuations matter anymore. [12:03] >> They They don't. [12:04] >> They They really don't. [12:05] >> Sounds like heresy. [12:06] >> Yeah, they don't though. [12:07] >> They don't. [12:09] >> Yeah. All right. Uh IPOs. This is from [12:11] Torson Slack. IPOs have underperformed [12:14] the market since 2019. This is a [12:15] three-year buy and hold market adjusted [12:17] IPO. So, it takes the IPO and then [12:20] compares it to what the market did. And [12:22] every year the IPOs are getting just [12:24] slaughtered this decade. Just massacred. [12:28] And I know people keep talking about the [12:30] reason that we're not having more IPOs. [12:31] I know we're having some big ones this [12:33] year, but the reason like all these [12:34] companies are staying private longer is [12:36] because of regulations and rules and [12:38] there's so much private capital, blah [12:40] blah blah. I think one of the other [12:41] reasons is they know they're all [12:42] overvalued [12:43] >> 100%. [12:44] >> And if they go if they go public, [12:46] they're going to it's just going to oh [12:47] my gosh, [12:48] >> that's such I'm so glad you said that. [12:49] What a great point. This chart is an [12:51] indictment on private market investors. [12:53] it is that it's there was too much money [12:55] that flowed in and valuations got taken [12:58] way too high and the public market said [12:59] uh-uh nope [13:02] that's it's kind of crazy uh chart Matt [13:05] and the team at exhibit A show they did [13:08] this the average IPO and I think they [13:10] did this how far back do they go oh 99 [13:12] the average IPO it's kind of funny it [13:14] has a little pop falls a little then it [13:16] comes up and then it just falls and then [13:18] 12 months after the IPO the average IPO [13:20] is down 30% % 12 months after the IPO [13:23] which is kind of crazy and he put SpaceX [13:26] chart on here and that huge pop [13:28] immediately is up 50%. Now it's down 15% [13:30] in total but it's down how much from the [13:33] highs? 45% or so. [13:36] >> And this thing is getting killed every [13:37] day. I looked at this. It's down 14 out [13:40] of the 18 trading days in July. So [13:42] almost every day SpaceX goes down. [13:44] >> Wow. [13:44] >> This month. [13:46] It's pretty wild because everyone who [13:48] said this thing is obviously overvalued [13:50] was right almost immediately. [13:53] But now what happens? [13:55] >> I don't know. Did you happen to listen [13:57] to uh our episode with Ron Baron on TCF? [14:00] >> No. You know, my podcast consumption is [14:02] in a bare market because on the weekends [14:04] I'm just outside the whole time and I I [14:06] I have to catch up during the week. [14:08] >> Okay. [14:08] >> What? So he's he's a Tesla guy. So he's [14:11] obviously bullish on SpaceX. Is that [14:13] fair? So, he's an Elon Musk, to say the [14:16] least. Elon Musk made him $30 billion [14:19] >> or him and his investors, $30 billion. I [14:21] think I'd be a fan, too. [14:23] >> So, what Ron Baron has been able to do, [14:25] I think he has the number one performing [14:26] mutual fund since 2003 or something like [14:28] that. Um, and like 95% of his funds are [14:32] in the top desile or something crazy. [14:34] And a lot of it is due to his [14:36] investments in Tesla. He's made he made [14:39] 27 different investments in SpaceX. [14:41] anytime people wanted to cash out, he [14:43] said, "Great, I'll take it." [14:45] >> So, this guy's been along for the ride. [14:47] >> He's a long long-term investor, [14:49] >> right? [14:49] >> He invested in win for 27 years. Like, [14:52] he is an unusual cat that he's able to [14:54] stay invested in these companies for so [14:56] long. He did say that he thinks SpaceX [14:58] could 20 to 30x over the next 10 to 15 [15:00] years, which is a 30. So, I I So, all [15:03] right. 20x over the next 10 years is a [15:06] 35% keer. At $1.5 trillion, it seems [15:09] highly unlikely. [15:10] So, he's saying it's like in 30 years [15:12] it's as big as the economy is today. [15:14] >> I mean, whatever. Crazy. Uh, [15:18] yeah. Anyway, that was that was that was [15:20] a an interesting conversation. 83 years [15:22] old. [15:22] >> Does he also think that Tesla and SpaceX [15:24] are for sure going to merge because that [15:26] seems to be the He doesn't think so. [15:27] >> I don't I don't even think we asked him [15:28] that. 83 years old. Sharpest attack. And [15:30] you know what? You know what? One of my [15:31] big takeaways from Ron Baron. [15:33] >> He's 83. [15:34] >> 83. Super sharp. the recall that he had [15:37] telling us stories about him growing up. [15:39] He like I I don't know if you know this [15:41] about me. Huge eye contact guy. [15:46] >> Okay, I could see that. I'm not a big [15:48] eye contact guy. [15:48] >> No, you're the anti. [snorts] When I am [15:51] staring, when I am having a [15:52] conversation, I am looking into [15:54] somebody's soul. No, but I mean that's [15:57] you have my attention. I look at and he [15:59] he uh he challenged me. He was a hu he [16:02] he was right in the center of my [16:04] >> stare off. Okay. [16:05] >> Yeah. No, it was just I feel like we got [16:06] to know each other from the eyeballs [16:08] >> and then you uncomfortably looked away. [16:10] You had someone has to look away then. [16:11] >> I I think he blinked actually. I got to [16:13] be honest. I think he blinked. [16:15] >> All right. Uh let's talk about something [16:16] that everyone is bearish on. I think and [16:18] this is when I say everyone. I know you [16:20] always give me crap for that, but I had [16:23] two I think the consensus take now. You [16:25] can correct me if I'm wrong here. From [16:27] the pundit class, from the investor [16:29] class, everyone is bearish on bonds [16:30] right now. Is that fair to say? [16:32] >> You know better than I would. [16:34] >> Okay. I'm in everyone. Okay, so I'm [16:36] going to point out two conversation I [16:37] had in the past week and I've been [16:38] hearing this same story everywhere. And [16:40] I'm not saying these people are wrong. [16:42] I'm just saying I I I always feel a [16:45] little uncomfortable when everyone is so [16:46] consensus on something like this. So I [16:48] talked to Yuri Timmer last week for [16:50] asset compound and he says listen the [16:52] biggest the biggest risks to the market [16:53] right now, one of them is rising yields, [16:55] bond yields and that that could because [16:58] inflation is high and because the Fed [16:59] could have to uh raise rates and all [17:01] these things and he's saying we're in an [17:02] age of fiscal dominance. This whole idea [17:04] of the rates falling for 40 years is [17:06] over. Now it's inflation is going to be [17:08] higher because of higher deficits, [17:10] higher government debt, all these [17:12] things, right? I went in this other [17:13] local podcast last week. Caveat mour. I [17:16] think I said that right. MTOR. [17:18] >> Mhm. [17:19] >> Uh Mitch Staple is a guy. He used to be [17:21] the chief investment officer at Fifth [17:22] Third Bank. Now he works at this place [17:24] in Grand. It's called the Red Seedar uh [17:26] investments. And he he kind of made a [17:27] similar case as Urian. He's a bond guy. [17:29] He made the s he's like listen inflation [17:31] higher uh high you know anything long [17:34] duration is going to get smoked like [17:36] this is not a great environment for that [17:37] you have to keep your duration low and [17:40] again I'm not saying these people are [17:41] wrong I think they probably I would lean [17:43] more towards them being right in terms [17:44] of uh the higher inflation thing [17:47] sticking and and all this but I just [17:49] feel like with bond yields being so much [17:51] higher [17:53] it would really surprise me 5 years ago [17:54] if you said or 10 years ago if you said [17:56] listen bond yields are finally going to [17:58] be at 5% % and everyone's going to still [18:00] hate bonds. [18:03] Like what that that would have been [18:04] surprising to telling someone that in [18:06] the in the zero interest rate world that [18:09] we lived in like hey real yields are [18:12] finally going to be juicy enough but [18:14] people want to like you know get [18:16] something finally and now everyone still [18:17] hates bonds. That's surprising to me. [18:19] >> Yeah. [18:20] >> So what in what under what would have to [18:22] happen for these people to be wrong? [18:23] Just a recession. [18:25] >> That would do it. Well, I I think [18:27] listen, you have to be an idiot to just [18:29] completely dismiss those fears. I guess [18:31] my question to them my question to them [18:33] would be [18:34] >> rates have been high for a while, at [18:36] least high by by uh recent historical [18:40] standards. [18:44] What would it take for the risks to [18:46] emerge because of higher yields? Is it [18:50] is it the 10 year going to five and a [18:51] half percent. [18:53] >> Or is it just higher for longer is [18:54] ultimately going to impair X Y or Z? [18:58] >> That could be. And I I asked the [19:00] question I asked is are you surprised [19:01] that yields aren't higher given all the [19:03] spending that's happening? And the qu [19:04] the answer was yes. Like it takes the [19:07] market sometimes a while to adjust to [19:08] the new environment and maybe yields the [19:10] new yields should be higher which [19:12] obviously is not great for things like [19:13] mortgage rates. Does it take does it [19:15] take the market a while to adjust [19:17] >> or is or is this like the economy to [19:19] adjust? [19:20] >> Yeah, that that Well, that's a good [19:21] point, too. All right, so check out this [19:22] chart I put in here. I understand one of [19:25] the reasons why people hate bonds is [19:26] because they've just been so horrible. [19:27] So, I I looked at the last 5-year [19:28] returns for bonds, total returns for the [19:31] AG, which is, you know, a benchmark for [19:33] almost everyone. And then it would be [19:34] like that would be like a total index [19:36] fund for most people in bonds. The 3 to [19:38] sevenyear Treasury bond, 20 plus year, [19:40] then 7 to 10 year, right? And so over [19:43] the past 5 years, the A has essentially [19:46] given you nothing. Same thing with 3 to [19:48] sevenyear treasuries. 10-year [19:50] treasuries, 7 to 10 year treasuries, [19:51] you've lost 8% of your money in 5 years. [19:54] Long-term bonds, you got smoked. It's [19:55] like 33% down. And add inflation on top [19:57] of that, it's it's even worse, [19:59] obviously. So, the fact that the, you [20:02] know, the sentiment around bonds is bad. [20:04] That makes sense. If if you were looking [20:06] at a loss five years for stocks, [20:07] everyone would hate them, too. [20:09] >> Can I part make sense to Can I pull a [20:11] Bank Carlson here? [20:12] >> Yep. [20:13] >> Nobody just owns stocks. I mean, nobody [20:14] just owns bonds. So, if you look at the [20:17] returns of a 6040 portfolio, [20:20] >> probably still above average. [20:22] >> Yes. Yeah, you're you're right. It's [20:24] it's stocks have done the heavy lifting. [20:28] And I I just think the fact that yields [20:30] are so much higher just gives you a [20:31] built-in margin of safety that you just [20:32] didn't. We we already took the biggest [20:33] part of the pain. 0 to 5 was a an [20:37] enormous amount of pain for bonds. M. [20:38] >> So now it feels like if it's going to be [20:40] painful, it's a death by a thousand [20:42] cuts. Whereas before you got pushed off [20:43] of a cliff. [20:44] >> Yes. [20:44] >> With no parachute. [20:45] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The worst is behind [20:49] us. [20:49] >> Again, I'm not saying I disagree with [20:50] these people. I'm just saying like where [20:51] could they where this where could this [20:53] consensus now opinion it seems like [20:55] consensus by a lot of very smart people. [20:56] Where could that be wrong? [20:58] >> All right, let's talk about South Korea. [21:00] This is uh this is why. Let me just read [21:02] this. Bear with me for one second. [21:04] >> This is this is really good. [21:05] >> Uh from Reuters. Lee Songho watched the [21:08] nearly 300 million Juan, which is around [21:10] 200 grand um fortune he built with a [21:13] 500% margin loan evaporate in just four [21:15] weeks in May. But he plans to borrow [21:17] again and return to the market the [21:18] moment he has enough capital. Had a boy [21:20] Lee Sun. How a boy. Uh the 24-year-old [21:23] South Korean university student in Soul [21:25] briefly turned the 20 million Juan he [21:26] saved during the mandatory military [21:28] service into a 15-fold windfall. All by [21:31] tapping quote a tiny circle button on [21:34] his trading app that instantly unlocked [21:35] five times leverage. Violent swings in [21:38] South Korean stocks triggered a cascade [21:40] of forced liquidations by his brokerage, [21:42] wiping out the gains. Within weeks, his [21:44] account had fallen below his invest uh [21:46] his initial investment, leaving him [21:48] under such strain that he said, "I [21:50] literally could not breathe." But I'm [21:53] sticking to marginal loans, Lee said [21:54] from his studio apartment, barely larger [21:56] than a parking space next to an empty [21:58] habiki whiskey and unboxed electric fan [22:01] gifted by his brokerage after he [22:03] qualified as a VIP [laughter] client. [22:05] >> This is really good. [22:06] >> What? Um, okay. Lee said, "Since stocks [22:10] are volatile assets, that volatility, if [22:13] it moves upward, allows for rapid wealth [22:15] creation. If I add five times leverage, [22:18] I can build wealth five times faster [22:20] than the others." Um, he added when [22:23] asked why he would take on more. Okay. [22:25] Uh, anyway, [22:27] this guy's he's not the only person [22:29] doing this. [22:30] >> No. Uh, legend. I love how they had to [22:33] like get like put him down by talking [22:35] about how big his apartment was. [22:37] [laughter] [22:37] >> Yeah. [22:38] >> Come on. Low blow Reuters. [22:40] >> But there was times leverage. [22:41] >> There was there was a data point going [22:44] around a couple of weeks ago that there [22:46] was [22:48] 500,000 South Korean accounts that were [22:49] liquidated. What I do you remember? Do [22:51] you remember what the number was? [22:52] >> I don't remember the number, but it's uh [22:53] they had to put some curbs on this stuff [22:55] in South Korea in terms of the leveraged [22:57] ETFs. And it sounds to me this feels [22:59] like crypto to me where the crypto [23:01] accounts just get taken out because the [23:02] leverage is so high. But I can't believe [23:06] that they're allowing five times [23:07] leverage for an account that size [23:10] for an account any just by hitting a [23:12] that's crazy, right? [23:14] >> Why not six times [23:17] that Why stop there? these as [23:19] these other countries [23:21] learn about the stock market and there [23:23] some of these a lot of these other [23:24] country I talked about this with Josh [23:24] today actually where a lot of these [23:26] other countries don't have nearly the [23:28] ownership we have or like the [23:29] institutional knowledge of the stock [23:30] market because there's been just more [23:31] time here to gain that knowledge I think [23:33] they're going to supercharge these [23:35] cycles kind of like crypto the crypto [23:37] cycles all happen faster right the boom [23:39] and the winter and the boom and the [23:40] winter I think that's going to happen [23:42] with a lot of these individual countries [23:43] as they as their young people learn the [23:45] stock market and I think eventually it's [23:47] going to be a good thing for them [23:49] as long as they don't get totally blown [23:51] out and and are broke and have to [23:53] declare bankruptcy. [23:55] >> Uh I don't know if I share your optimism [23:57] with Elise somehow. [23:58] >> No. Okay. Well, the fact that he's going [24:00] back for more leverage, obviously that's [24:02] not a great sign, but I do think that [24:05] these other countries because all the [24:07] barriers to entry have been knocked down [24:09] getting involved in the stock market, [24:10] that's going to be a huge tailwind for [24:13] global stocks in the years ahead. [24:15] Because if you look at the ownership [24:17] rankings like Japan, 15% of the [24:19] households own stocks versus 65% here. [24:23] That's a tailwind for global equities in [24:24] the years ahead. And it's a tailwind for [24:26] US equities too if they put money here. [24:30] Don't do with five times leverage maybe. [24:32] >> Yeah, [24:32] >> that'd be my only note. Great story [24:34] though. I really liked it. Story in the [24:36] Wall Street Journal. Blackstone rolls [24:37] out new private market funds this time [24:39] with Vanguard. I guess this is another [24:41] So this says new offerings for [24:42] individual investors follow exodus from [24:44] private credit funds earlier this year. [24:46] I guess this is another case of Jack [24:49] Bogle rolling over in his grave. [24:50] Although people say that and he was [24:51] against ETFs and ETFs are a massive part [24:53] of Vanguard's business now. [24:55] >> Yeah. [24:56] >> Right. Um so they're going to do this [24:59] through Wellington which actually where [25:00] Bogle started. That's where he got his [25:01] start. Remember the Wellington funds [25:02] have gone gone back forever. [25:06] I'll be curious to see how how this does [25:09] with Vanguard. Do you think this is [25:10] mostly institutions that'll be doing it [25:11] through Vanguard? Do you think this will [25:12] actually be individuals? [25:14] >> Um, [25:16] this is going to be offered through I [25:19] think the article said uh through Meril [25:22] for Meil Lynch investors to start. [25:24] >> Okay. [25:26] >> So the story is Vanguard will manage the [25:30] indexed equity and index and active [25:33] fixed income sleeves in the new all [25:34] markets fund. Wellington will provide [25:37] active equity and liquidity management [25:39] while Blackstone is managing all of the [25:41] private assets. So a Vanguard [25:43] spokesperson said the reality is markets [25:45] have changed because obviously they were [25:48] asked about what Jack Bogle would think. [25:49] Um who famously said don't don't try and [25:51] find the needle in the hastack just own [25:52] the haststack. So they said the the [25:55] reality is the markets have changed. The [25:56] haststack now includes private markets [25:57] which our clients today just don't have [25:59] much access to. By getting involved, we [26:01] aspire to lower the cost and complexity [26:03] of investing in private assets over [26:05] time. [26:06] >> So, this is like the first this is the [26:08] precursor to having target date funds [26:10] eventually hold these, right? [26:12] >> Yeah. Yeah. I think that's inevitable. [26:14] And I I think I think it did say that [26:15] Vanguard uh investors will eventually [26:17] have access to this. [26:20] >> Yeah, that makes I don't know. I guess [26:22] if you're going to do do this, doing it [26:24] so in a diversified manner like this [26:26] makes sense. I don't know how they [26:26] handle like rebalancing and such, but [26:28] >> I understand the argument. [26:30] that private markets are so much bigger [26:32] now. Forget about just like the growth [26:34] equity stuff, but [26:37] private credit infrastructure, there's a [26:39] lot of, you know, the the world doesn't [26:41] look the way the way it did 40 years [26:42] ago. [26:44] All right. Uh let's talk the economy. I [26:47] I like this one from Carlile Group. Uh [26:49] they talk about what the World Cup [26:50] revealed about America and they they [26:52] talk about people learning about the [26:54] consumption habits here. There's some [26:55] really interesting patterns here. Now, I [26:57] we talked in recent weeks about the fact [26:59] that low mortgage rates for people [27:01] really help their disposable income and [27:02] their spending. Uh 135 million US [27:05] households, 50 million own a mortgaged [27:07] home, virtually all of which have been [27:09] financed by long-term fixed rates. Uh [27:11] and so they're saying like that's a [27:13] that's a big hedge. And if you want to [27:15] think about this investment terms, I [27:16] explained this to someone recently, [27:18] having a fixed rate mortgage is like [27:20] you're shorting the dollar. For all the [27:21] people who say the dollar is going to [27:23] decline forever and it's it's toast and [27:25] you know what you want to do in that [27:26] situation? You want to have a fixed rate [27:28] mortgage for as long as you can because [27:29] that's short the dollar. Uh so they say [27:32] measure by the current distance between [27:34] rates on new mortgages which is almost 6 [27:36] and a half% which is over 6 and a half% [27:37] and the effective rate paid on the [27:39] outstanding stock of mortgages. So [27:40] that's 4.3%. So you take everyone who [27:42] has a mortgage right now and what's [27:44] their average rate is 4.3%. You would be [27:46] paying 6 and a half% 6.6%. [27:48] disposable income among these households [27:50] is 300 billion higher than it would have [27:51] been if mortgage rates automatically [27:53] reset to market levels [27:54] >> as is common in other economies. So that [27:57] savings that's why so many people have [27:58] been able to spend so much money. You [28:00] locked in a low rate. Now here's another [28:02] one. This is this is really interesting. [28:03] Speaking of World Cup, [28:08] this So, somebody sent us a video [28:11] showing what people spent at the World [28:12] Cup and what what you just mentioned and [28:14] excess what $300 billion. [28:16] It all went to FIFA, by the way. I have [28:18] no idea. Is is FIFA the organization [28:20] that gets the money? I don't know how [28:21] that works. [28:22] >> Well, yeah, they run the World Cup. [28:23] >> Okay, that's where all the money went. I [28:25] want Can I Can I show you this share [28:26] this video with you? [28:27] >> Mhm. [28:28] >> How much did you spend on your ticket? [28:30] >> $50,000. [28:31] >> 20,000. [28:31] >> And what do you do for a I'm a model. [28:33] >> 30,000. [28:33] >> What do you do for a living? [28:34] >> I retired. Made a lot of money. [28:36] >> 200. [28:37] >> And what do you do for a living? [28:38] >> The PE hung [28:39] >> 30,000. [28:39] >> 30,000. What do you do for a living? [28:41] >> I'm a streamer. I've been doing this [28:42] since 2011. [28:42] >> Not enough. There's no experience like [28:44] the World Cup final. [28:45] >> And what do you do for a living? [28:46] >> I'm chairman CEO of the Kansas City [28:47] Chiefs. [28:48] >> I don't know. Friend gave it to me. [28:49] >> And what do you do for a living? [28:50] >> We're philanthropists. [28:51] >> What did you do? [28:52] >> We used to autotrader. [28:53] >> We bought SAP software to the tune of [28:55] millions of dollars and they invited us [28:56] to the game. [28:57] >> What do you do for a living? [28:58] >> We make Welch's fruit snacks which [28:59] they're selling all over the place. [29:00] >> No, wait. You're the owner of Welches? [29:02] Yes. [29:02] >> What is your net worth? [29:03] >> You can Google me. [29:04] >> Got hooked up with a good friend. [29:05] >> Do you know how much they would have [29:06] cost? [29:06] >> $30,000. [29:07] >> What do you do for a living? [29:08] >> I got an organic ticket control company. [29:10] >> I'm a guest today. I didn't spend $1. [29:12] >> What do you do for a living? [29:12] >> I'm an spend anything. A friend invited [29:14] me. [29:14] >> What do you do for a living? [29:15] >> I'm a consultant. [29:16] >> A guest video. [29:17] >> What do you do for a living? [29:18] >> I'm an actress. [29:19] >> We're really lucky. We're guests of [29:20] Verizon. [29:21] >> What do you do for a living? [29:21] >> I work for Google. [29:22] >> 96,000. What do you do for a living? I'm [29:24] a painter of houses. [29:26] >> 73,000. [29:28] >> All right, you get the point. Please, [29:30] >> there are there's levels to this. [29:32] >> Mhm. [29:32] >> Like there's people that make a good [29:34] living. There's people that have assets. [29:36] And then there's people that spend [29:37] $96,000 and $200,000 to go to the World [29:40] Cup. [29:41] >> Jeez. [29:41] >> Well, all Ben all from a from a fixed [29:44] mortgage. [29:46] >> That's right. That's where it came from. [29:47] >> They locked their mortgage and they they [29:49] spent the difference on the World Cup uh [29:50] finals. [29:51] >> Listen to this one. uh the total outlays [29:54] of 45 million US households is equal to [29:56] nearly 70% of the entire Chinese [29:58] economy. So they compare just 45 the 45 [30:01] million richest households in the USA. [30:02] >> No 45 45,000 you said [30:04] >> 45 million households [30:07] >> that account to combine for nearly 15 [30:09] trillion in annual outlays. Uh it's [30:11] equal to three times the size of the [30:12] entire German economy 70% of GDP of [30:16] China. um this is a third of the [30:18] population and has not only been [30:19] insulated from the inflation shock but [30:21] also exhibits propensity to spend out of [30:22] wealth and income. Uh so if you do the [30:25] numbers comparing this like obviously [30:28] though it's [30:30] it's just it's showing how how much we [30:32] love to spend in this c country [30:34] essentially and that that 45 million [30:37] households is is such a big amount too. [30:38] It's it's not like the top 10% it's the [30:40] top third or something. It's basically [30:42] an economy into unto itself. [30:45] It's a massive, massive number. Think [30:47] about how much bigger China is than us. [30:49] And this these 45 million households are [30:51] almost as big as the Chinese GDP. [30:53] [laughter] [30:54] It's [30:54] >> pretty insane. [30:55] >> Unbelievable. [30:57] All right. So, Google reported earnings [30:59] last week and I want to read you [31:02] something that the CFO said which is [31:04] emblematic of everything happening in [31:06] hyperscaler [31:08] AI world. [31:10] Uh, [31:11] >> by the way, my my um Anchorman meme from [31:16] last week or two weeks ago was kind of [31:17] spot on. They're all turning on each [31:18] other. [31:18] >> I don't believe you. [31:19] >> Open source versus closed source versus [31:21] a fighting game, right? They they are [31:23] all turning on each other. [31:24] >> Yeah. [31:24] >> And I I have no You always make fun of [31:27] me for not taking a stance, but the [31:29] whole open source versus closed source [31:31] versus [31:32] >> I don't care. Okay. I really don't care. [31:36] Is that okay to have a stance? [31:39] >> Considering that you just discovered [31:40] Apple Pay, I'm not surprised you don't [31:41] have a stance on this. [31:42] >> I I I don't care. [31:44] >> Um, [31:46] okay. She was asked about uh about their [31:48] capex because they raised it again. They [31:51] just reported a negative free cash flow [31:52] for the first quarter. I don't know if [31:54] ever, but [31:54] >> I think it was the first time ever [31:56] negative free cash flow. Yes. [31:58] >> She said, "We're still in a supply [31:59] constrained environment. I think we've [32:01] said this now for multiple quarters in a [32:02] row. We are seeing very strong demand [32:04] both from external cloud customers as [32:06] well as across the business. Our goal is [32:08] to invest as long as we see an [32:10] attractive return on that investment. As [32:11] Sundar mentioned earlier, we do take a [32:13] long-term view. So, we take multi-year [32:14] view at what the needs are as well as [32:17] focus on next year in the near-term and [32:18] building aggressively to meet those [32:19] demands. As you've seen, while we have [32:21] increased our capacity quite [32:23] significantly over the past three years, [32:25] the demand still outpaces that [32:26] investment. We are just like the rest of [32:29] the industry working in a supply [32:31] constrained environment. [32:33] >> Stocks down almost 20%. [32:35] >> Google is down 18% draw down right now. [32:38] >> They had a monster quarter. I was [32:40] surprised at the degree of the selloff. [32:42] Um I think the cloud was up 82% [32:44] year-over-year. Revenue was up uh what [32:47] was it 14 14% or YouTube was up 24%. I [32:51] whatever maybe I'm getting the numbers a [32:53] little bit wrong, but uh but investors [32:56] are taking a investors are taking uh [32:58] they're starting to push back against [32:59] all the spend and and the hyperscalers [33:02] are saying we're still going, [33:04] >> right? We don't [33:05] >> we're not slowing down. [33:05] >> How long did this game of chicken last? [33:10] >> I don't know. [33:11] >> Stock market dependent. [33:11] >> I I think I think we have a long way to [33:13] go. I don't think I don't think that [33:14] Sundar is going to say, "Oh our [33:17] stock is down 25%. We have to completely [33:19] change everything." I think if it's down [33:21] 45, yeah, that's different. But we have [33:22] a long way to go. [33:24] >> Yeah, I know. I I think 40%'s kind of [33:25] line in the sand when you start going, [33:26] "Okay, what are we doing here?" I don't [33:29] know. [33:29] >> Uh, all right. Speaking of earnings, um, [33:32] Blackstone [33:35] was asked about BCR. Obviously, they [33:37] have $324 billion in the private wealth [33:41] channel. [33:43] >> Okay. It's a lot of money. [33:44] >> A lot of money. and they said that uh [33:47] redemptions were elevated in in uh in [33:49] April and May and they're starting to [33:51] they're starting to to slow down. We [33:53] really haven't heard much about private [33:54] credit in a while. Wasn't some blue has [33:56] been in the news. [33:58] I this is the this was bound to blow [34:01] over just because it doesn't happen all [34:03] at once. That's the thing with private [34:06] markets. They're it's if it's going to [34:07] be a train wreck, it's going to be a [34:08] boring one. Well, I don't The only [34:09] reason why why I push back against that [34:11] is because [34:13] there's always defaults happening [34:16] and the media is so thirsty to report on [34:18] this that you know what you know things [34:21] have blown over like when they're when [34:23] there hasn't been any reporting about [34:25] it. [34:26] >> The crazy thing is Blue is still down [34:28] 64% from the all-time highs. [34:30] >> Yeah. The stock hasn't stock hasn't [34:31] bounced at all. Blackstone has bounced [34:33] quite a bit. [34:34] >> Do you still own any of these names? No. [34:36] >> Cuz for a while you did. Okay. [34:37] >> No. [34:38] you blew out. [34:39] >> You know, it's funny. I was thinking [34:40] about I was thinking about buying [34:41] Blackstone back again today, but I do [34:42] not. I do not and I did not. Um, all [34:45] right. So, [34:46] >> there there there are there are a lot of [34:48] opportunities if you wanted to buy a [34:49] blown out stock right now that it's it's [34:52] seems bizarre during a bull market. The [34:54] amount of companies you can buy that are [34:55] down 30, 40, 50%. Pretty pretty wild. [34:58] >> Yes. And if you go if you line item the [35:01] companies that are getting blown up, [35:03] there's all great reasons, [35:06] >> right? As usual, [35:07] >> right? Like you wouldn't look at the [35:08] stock and be like, "Well, why is Nike [35:10] down 55%." [35:11] >> Right. Oh, we we heard about that from [35:13] people, which um I I had to represent a [35:16] little. I got a Nike t-shirt on today. [35:17] And credit to me. I my my kids are going [35:19] to camp this week, so that's why we're [35:20] recording early. Recorded at the [35:22] compound early, too. This is what a pro [35:24] I am. I changed shirts because I don't [35:26] want to be wearing the same shirt in two [35:27] videos this week at the compound, right? [35:28] Is that a pro or is that a pro? [35:30] >> Uh that's standard. That's a standard [35:32] Tuesday for me, my friend. [laughter] [35:34] >> Uh but the I put an email in here. We [35:36] don't have to read it, but everyone, a [35:38] bunch of people told us and said, [35:39] "Listen, Nike is not a thing for young [35:42] people anymore. Young people have so [35:43] many more options that it's just not the [35:45] brand it once was." And that that [35:46] explanation make so many people made [35:48] that point. Like, it's just Gen Z, [35:50] younger millennial people, Nike doesn't [35:52] have a hold on them like it did older [35:53] generations. [35:54] >> Well, you know what? You and I, my [35:55] friend, will be buying Nikes to the [35:56] grave. [35:57] >> I It's still my favorite brand. Yeah. I [35:59] think I I love Nike, so I I'm still [36:02] representing. And uh I just can't [36:04] believe the stock's down 75%. Uh, are [36:06] you going to buy it? [36:08] >> I did once and I blew out of it. I No. [36:11] >> Yeah. Me either. Not interested. Um, all [36:13] right. This is good news. More [36:15] executives are raising their estimates [36:17] than maintaining or cutting them. So, [36:19] we're looking at something called the [36:20] S&P 500 EPS guidance momentum score and [36:23] it is at the highest levels in as long [36:25] as this chart goes back. It's been a [36:27] great earning season. [36:28] >> So, this is why valuations are falling. [36:30] But the funny thing is when valuations [36:33] are rising, no one ever questions it. [36:34] When valuations are falling, everyone [36:36] questions it. Of course, valuations are [36:38] falling, but that's because we can't [36:39] trust the earnings. But when valuations [36:41] are rising and people saying how [36:42] overvalued the stock market is, people [36:44] don't question it. Yep. They're right. [36:46] Stocks are overvalued. [36:47] >> Right. Right. Right. Right. [36:50] Uh here's another great chart from [36:51] exhibit A. We're looking at the [36:52] quarterly earnings revision tracker for [36:55] Q2, Q3, and Q4. And Q3, and Q4. Those [36:58] these are estimates. Q2 is actual end [37:02] estimates. And look, [37:03] >> this chart looks like a looks like Matt [37:04] fatfingered on. [37:05] >> Well, this is Google. [37:08] >> It's all Google because wow, [37:11] that's crazy. [37:13] >> So, [37:14] >> now in fairness, a lot of the EPS in [37:16] Google is uh other investments and [37:18] stuff, but still. [37:19] >> So, they took the estimated EPS up 10% [37:23] or so on their own essentially. [37:24] >> I don't know, whatever. That's it's it's [37:26] a lot [37:26] >> because it went from 80 to 90 or [37:28] something. [37:29] >> Yeah. [37:30] >> Wow. [37:30] >> Uh All right. more the same in terms of [37:32] what financial companies are saying [37:33] about their customer. This is from [37:35] Capital One. Shout out to the transcript [37:37] for pulling this. The US consumer and [37:39] the overall economy remain resilient [37:40] despite the high energy prices and [37:42] everything. When you pick up the news [37:43] every day, what would think the world is [37:44] falling apart? Unless if you listen to [37:46] Animal Spirits. [37:50] >> You say the world's falling apart. [37:51] >> What? [37:53] >> Oh, I got you. I got you. Took [37:55] [laughter] me a sec. Actually, [37:58] the portfolio that the that the consumer [38:00] continues to perform remarkably well. [38:02] The unemployment rate in June was lower [38:04] than in February before the tariff [38:05] conflict began. Jobless claims remain [38:07] low. Job creation has rebounded over the [38:08] past few months. Um, here here's some [38:11] American Express. US consumer spending [38:13] was up 11%, the highest level of growth [38:15] since Q1 2018. [38:17] US consumer spending was up 11%. Now, [38:20] this is the upper end of the K, [38:23] right? the you definitely put the World [38:25] Cup is definitely going on the AMX card. [38:28] >> Oh yeah, for sure. [38:29] >> Uh we continue to see good engagement [38:30] from our younger customers, millennials [38:32] and Gen Z, which make up the largest [38:33] share of US consumer spending remained [38:35] our fastest growing cohorts this [38:36] quarter. So check this out. So travel [38:39] and entertainment was up 30% [38:40] year-over-year. No kidding. The World [38:42] Cup is in here. [38:43] >> Wait, did all those did all those credit [38:45] card companies bounce back? Remember the [38:46] um it's been so long now. The Catrini [38:49] report that software was going to end [38:51] credit card companies. Is that a thing [38:52] anymore? They they didn't say it was [38:53] gonna end credit card companies. [38:55] >> Remember credit card companies got [38:56] dinged on those? You don't remember [38:57] that? That was part of it. [38:58] >> I think credit card companies got dinged [39:00] because everybody was going to have [39:01] going to be out of a job and credit [39:02] quality was going to deteriorate. [39:04] >> Okay. [39:05] >> Um anyway, yes, they have. Visa Visa is [39:08] ripping. So is Mastercard. But I thought [39:10] this was interesting and I want to ask [39:11] you a question, Ben. Um where's my doc? [39:14] I lost my doc. Here it is. So [39:17] I love how American Express always [39:19] breaks this down in terms of the [39:21] year-over-year growth. So, baby boomers [39:23] are up 5%. They're not spending that [39:25] much anymore. Gen X 10% growth. [39:27] Millennials 14%. Gen Z up 40%. [39:32] They're now 7% of card spending. [39:35] Millennials and Gen X are 31 to 36% of [39:38] the total pie. Baby boomers are 27%. [39:42] Is income inequality even more [39:45] pronounced for younger people? You see [39:48] all these people, all these all these [39:49] videos, like the younger people at the [39:50] World Cup, and you see these [39:52] 20-year-olds spending $60,000, it feels [39:54] like the have and the have nots are even [39:56] more pronounced. Now, I'm not a young [39:57] person, so I'm just making this up, but [39:59] it seems like the the the halves and the [40:00] have nots are even more pronounced for [40:02] for people 25 and under. [40:03] >> It does feel like in the 2010s, coming [40:06] out of the great financial crisis, it [40:07] felt like everyone was at the same [40:08] playing field. [40:09] >> Yeah. None of us had money. [40:10] >> The same level. No one had money. Yeah. [40:11] No one was bragging about how rich they [40:13] got or that makes sense. I wonder too if [40:16] part of this is just a low base effect [40:17] of 40% year-over-year where people start [40:19] out low on their credit cards and they [40:20] ratchet it up pretty quickly. [40:23] >> But yes, you're I I do think that it [40:26] seems like anecdotally at least I don't [40:28] have the evidence behind this that young [40:29] people there's never been a wider range [40:31] of outcomes where people down here are [40:33] like, "Oh my gosh, I'm never going to be [40:34] able to buy a house." And other people [40:35] are making more money they ever thought [40:37] possible at 25 or something. And [40:39] obviously AMX has broken through to this [40:40] cohort of younger genzers with money. [40:44] 65% of new accounts were acquired from [40:47] millennials and Gen Z's. [40:50] >> Jeez. So they It's cuz they like all the [40:52] credit card points and MX has a [40:54] >> The lounge. [40:56] >> Not me. [40:58] >> You're an anti anti- lounge guy. Famous [41:00] >> lounge. Yes. All right. [41:02] >> Wait, hold on. In fairness, no offense [41:05] to Grand Rapids, but do you guys have a [41:07] lounge? Brand new. We're putting brand [41:09] new terminals in. They put a brand new [41:10] lounge in. You have to take long to get [41:11] there. [41:12] >> A brand new terminal. [41:13] >> Well, they're like extending these brand [41:14] Yeah, they're like redoing the whole [41:16] airport and putting new terminals are [41:17] extending. Hope we get more flights [41:19] because I'm sick of having all the [41:20] layovers everywhere. But they put a new [41:22] uh lounge in. Will I go use it? No. [41:25] >> Oh, come on. [41:26] >> No, because I live 10 minutes from the [41:28] airport. I get up [41:30] >> All right. All right. [41:30] >> And I walk through and I'm not going to [41:32] wait at the airport forever. All right. [41:33] Speaking of, I'll go down to this. Visa [41:35] did this report about the great wealth [41:36] transfer and we've seen this chart [41:38] before but Gen X and millennials are [41:40] ahead of boomers on a per capita wealth [41:42] basis at the same age. This is real [41:43] inflation adjusted net worth per capita [41:45] by age and I this is just it's hard to [41:49] believe that that we got to this place [41:51] especially coming out of the 2010s. So [41:53] they they show people talk about this [41:56] great wealth transfer. It's like $90 [41:58] trillion or hundred trillion or [41:59] whatever. Um it's just going to all go [42:02] to rich kids. That's the thing. They [42:03] show that 75% of it or so is going to go [42:06] to people who in the top 10%. So all [42:09] that wealth is getting and they they [42:10] said they they looked at and they said [42:13] if the $36 trillion being passed down be [42:16] like take away charitable goods and [42:18] taxes and all this stuff. It's going to [42:19] be 36 trillion over the next 20 years. [42:21] They said 28 of that 36 trillion will be [42:23] saved. 8 trillion will be spent. So most [42:26] of it is just going to go back right [42:27] into portfolios and such. It's not going [42:28] to be spent even. You know the meme like [42:31] there will be signs [42:34] as the boomers start to pass away and [42:37] the kids that kids the the 50 [42:39] 60-year-old our peers that inherit the [42:41] money [42:41] >> right [42:42] >> all of a sudden start buying cars and [42:44] houses and boats and [42:46] >> that's the thing or just that's their [42:49] retirement plan [42:50] >> then well that too income [42:51] >> I asked my wife this about some friends [42:52] recently I said do you think we talking [42:55] about finances and I think do you think [42:56] the life that they're living do you [42:58] think their whole plan is that they're [42:59] going to get money from their parents [43:00] for retirement cuz that's that's my [43:02] thought. My wife's like, "Why are you [43:03] asking me this question?" Because I [43:04] think the amount of money they're [43:05] spending, they can't be saving. [43:07] >> Yes. [43:08] >> Yeah. [43:08] >> That's I'm like, do you think that their [43:10] plan is like mom and dad die and we [43:12] >> It's ironclad. People die. [43:15] >> True. It's true. [43:16] >> What's a better retirement plan than [43:17] that? [43:18] >> It's a really morbid It's like when do [43:19] you get the money? 50 or 70, right? That [43:22] changes things. [43:25] That's no joke going to be a really ugly [43:28] >> life for some people when they thought [43:30] they were gonna, you know, when they [43:32] they have to like they're like, "My [43:34] parents are still alive." [43:35] >> Yes. [43:35] >> Die already. That's That's [snorts] [43:37] grim. [43:37] >> That's going to be a Netflix movie [43:38] someday. [43:39] >> Yeah. [43:40] >> Right. Kill my parents. All right. Lucas [43:42] Shaw, probably one of my favorite [43:44] entertainment newsletters by far. People [43:47] still watch a lot of Netflix. So he said [43:50] people spend more time watching original [43:51] series from Netflix than those of every [43:52] other m major streaming service [43:54] combined. So Netflix for original [43:56] programming still gets 57% of streaming. [43:58] The next highest is Prime Video at 11. [44:02] It's kind of crazy because I think [44:04] everyone agrees the quality of Netflix's [44:06] original stuff just kind of is not [44:08] great. [44:09] >> It's in a major lull. [44:11] >> They haven't had anything good in really [44:12] really good in a long time. It feels [44:14] like [44:14] >> the last decent thing I think I watched [44:16] I can remember was was uh what was the [44:17] rabbit show? Was it Black Rabbit? I [44:19] can't remember the name [44:19] >> of Jason. That was just fine. Beef [44:23] season 2 was I it's man it has been a [44:25] minute since they produced anything [44:27] remotely resembling quality. [44:28] >> So but listen people spend a lot more [44:29] time watching old shows and new ones. [44:31] Viewers spend more time on reruns of TV [44:33] shows than watching original TV, [44:34] original film and old movies combined [44:37] which I guess is like that was the old [44:39] TBS and TNT strategy. Like in USA you'd [44:41] watch reruns of old I watch Seinfeld [44:44] every day. Uh Netflix account for seven [44:46] of the 10 most streamed films and they [44:48] were all originals. [44:49] >> It's kind of crazy. [44:51] >> This is interesting. Podcasts are off to [44:52] a slow start for Netflix. Shows are [44:54] getting a few thousand viewers. That's [44:55] not surprising. I feel like YouTube for [44:58] podcasts is just a habit and it's tough [44:59] to make new [45:00] >> Spotify. [45:02] >> What do you mean? [45:04] >> So, [45:05] Spotify does video. [45:06] >> Spotify does video now. [45:09] >> Oh, so you're saying for a lot of people [45:10] going to Netflix is just doesn't it's [45:12] not a thing. [45:12] >> It's not a thing. [45:13] >> You don't have to. [45:14] >> Who has Netflix that doesn't also have [45:16] Spotify? But there's a lot of people who [45:17] watch podcasts on YouTube though and I [45:19] don't think the audience is translating [45:21] from YouTube to Netflix because it's an [45:23] extra step. YouTube I think is easier. [45:26] >> I think that's right. I think that's [45:27] right. [45:28] >> I was on the train the other night. [45:29] >> It still might work. I don't know. [45:30] >> With Chris and I spent 45 minutes just [45:33] scrolling through Instagram unbricked of [45:36] course. And I said to Chris, "This is [45:40] why Netflix stock is down 50%." He said, [45:41] "What?" I said, "Never mind." [45:43] >> Cuz he was looking at his Instagram. [45:44] He's not a stock market guy, you know, [45:46] but uh [45:47] >> but yeah. So, so the number of of hours, [45:51] viewed hours for Netflix is growing 1 to [45:52] 2% a year. [45:54] >> I'm telling you, man, Instagram, [45:56] obviously, Tik Tok, too, just killing [45:59] just ruining our society. Just it's a [46:02] magnet for your for your eyeballs. [46:04] There's nothing more there's nothing [46:05] more fun than scrolling through the [46:07] reels on Instagram. [46:10] >> It is. There's never been more options [46:13] to do stuff to keep your attention than [46:15] today. There's it's just so many [46:16] options. You're But you're right. You do [46:18] that for like 10 minutes and you go, [46:20] "What?" You kind of like snap out of it [46:21] like, "What did I What did I just do?" [46:22] >> Yeah. Um All right. Uh IMAX [46:26] Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey has [46:27] broken the algorithm, notching our [46:29] highest grossing second weekend in IMAX [46:31] history with $48 million in global box [46:32] office and only a mere 8% drop from [46:34] opening weekend. This standup [46:36] performance propelled IMAX to a $54 [46:38] million week in our third highest of all [46:39] time and takes the to date on the [46:41] Odyssey to $140 million 22% global [46:44] indexing which is 73% ahead of [46:47] Oppenheimer which was at $81 million at [46:49] the same point. That's wild. Think about [46:51] how big Oppenheimer was. This is 73% [46:53] ahead of Oppenheimer. [46:54] >> Yeah. And Oenheimer had the whole Barbie [46:57] you know like thing behind it. this it [46:59] the word of mouth every person I've [47:00] talked to that's seen it is like oh my [47:02] gosh you have to like this is the word [47:03] of mouth on it is is undefeated I'm [47:06] going to see it tonight [47:06] >> okay I'm excited [47:07] >> I'm going to see this evening I can't [47:09] wait uh I'm not seeing it at IMAX and [47:13] because there was no tickets [47:15] >> dude in New York City [47:17] >> they're doing a showtime at 2 a.m. that [47:19] they're doing it. There was a 1:45 [47:21] showtime and the only seats available [47:23] were the very two in THE VERY FRONT. [47:24] >> HOW? WHO'S GOING THERE? And it's still [47:27] sold out for the next month or two. [47:28] >> So, look at this. So, the market cap for [47:30] IMAX is roughly $2.5 billion. It's still [47:33] a relatively small firm. Like, you could [47:34] have a long runway on this stock. [47:36] >> Well, I think they're going to get [47:37] bought. [47:38] >> And by by the way, that is not inside [47:40] information or or a hunch. Like, there's [47:42] been reporting I think Bell was [47:43] reporting on this that they are they are [47:46] >> Why would you have inside information on [47:47] IMAX? cuz you wear the hat or [laughter] [47:50] where' you get that information from? [47:52] >> Yeah, the hat comes with a little [47:53] fortune cookie inside. [laughter] [47:55] All right. So, Variety had last week I [47:57] said, "Why don't they just build more [47:58] AMX theaters because it's it's [48:00] impossible to get into?" And a number of [48:01] people have said like, "Why don't they [48:02] just charge more for these?" Like, "Have [48:04] it have it be a market?" And people are [48:05] spending $1,000 to see the Odyssey or [48:07] something. But there's only 25 70 what [48:10] do you call it? Millimeter screens. Mm. [48:11] What what do you call 70 whatever [48:13] screens that that he shot on and that's [48:14] the one they say you have to watch it. [48:16] There is one in Grand Rapids. [48:18] >> But wait, hold on. Cuz that's what he [48:19] shot. That's what he shot the movie [48:21] with. [48:22] >> Okay. So, but there's only 25 of them in [48:24] the US. I think there's 45 globally. One [48:26] of them is in Grand Rapids and it was [48:28] built in 2001. And so it's like, why [48:30] don't they have more and here's what [48:32] they say. Sources at IMAX confirmed a [48:34] variety that many of the parts needed to [48:35] build these specialized film projectors [48:36] were simply no longer exist. The [48:38] original design files were created [48:39] roughly half a century ago. Um, but they [48:42] never properly maintained. As a result, [48:43] IMX no longer has complete manufacturing [48:45] blueprint. And much like the lost tribal [48:48] knowledge of the Apollo Aeros [48:49] spacecraft, very few engineers working [48:50] today fully understand the systems. If [48:53] AI can't figure this out, what are we [48:54] building it for? AI, start working on [48:57] this now. Give us more IMAX screens. [49:00] Come on, Claude. What are you doing? [49:01] Right. I I I don't How can this be the [49:05] How can this honestly be the case? [49:07] >> Yeah, [49:07] >> they lost the blueprints. [49:08] >> Yeah, this technology from the 1990s, we [49:11] can't we can't uh [49:13] >> You can't reverse engineer this. [49:14] >> Yeah, that's the word for Thank you, B. [49:16] >> What the [49:17] >> Unbelievable. I'm I'm going to see it in [49:20] a uh in a nice lounge. I got the Dolby [49:23] at least where I can feel the you know [49:25] whatever. I might they might cut off [49:27] this much of the screen. I'll be okay [49:28] with that. [49:28] >> Yeah. No, listen. I haven't seen an [49:30] IMAX. I had a great time. I but I really [49:33] want to see it in the IMAX, but I have [49:34] to wait till September, I suppose. [49:36] >> Yeah. [49:37] >> Um Okay. So, um we had a retirement [49:42] party [49:44] at RWM on Friday. Tony and Dena Isola. [49:50] So Tony and Dena joined us in Were they [49:53] here before you or did they come right [49:55] after you? [49:55] >> It was not long after me. There was like [49:56] a cascade of people that happened in the [49:58] next six months after me or something. [49:59] >> So 2015. [50:02] >> Yeah. Great advisers, even better [50:04] people. What was the name of Tony's [50:06] original blog that we had to be like you [50:07] have to change? It was like Malice [50:09] something about [50:10] >> Yeah. Malice for [50:11] >> So uh Tony and Dena joined us. We were [50:13] they were here. I don't know what they [50:16] were the 11th or 12th employee, whatever [50:17] it was. They were [50:18] >> first 15. We're now we're now we're now [50:20] 90 people, something like that. And they [50:23] have an incredible story. So Tony was a [50:27] social studies teacher. Is that right? [50:29] Yeah. He was a history teacher [50:30] >> for I don't know 20 years. So I think [50:34] Tony started on Wall Street, hated it, [50:36] said these are not [50:37] >> a commodities trader. Yeah. [50:38] >> Yeah. These are this is these are not my [50:40] people. I want to go do something [50:42] meaningful in this world. So he went to [50:43] be a history teacher and I think he did [50:46] that for 15 or 20 years [50:47] >> in the city too. [50:48] >> Okay. [50:49] >> Yeah. In New York City. He was a [50:50] teacher. [50:51] >> And Tony could not believe the rampant [50:56] abuses [50:57] being heaped on the teachers, the [50:59] unsuspecting teachers buying all of [51:02] these high-priced, horrible uh financial [51:06] products for their retirement accounts. [51:08] And at one point in time, Tony said, "I [51:11] I got to do something about this." I [51:13] found my second calling. So him and [51:14] Dena, and they had been giving, they had [51:16] been advising people casually about, you [51:18] know, common sense investing, index [51:20] funds, buy and hold, that that type of [51:22] stuff. He said, "I got to make a [51:23] difference in this world. I got to I got [51:24] to do it again." And so Tony and Diana [51:26] started an official business and they [51:28] started taking on clients. And their [51:30] mission was to save the teachers. So [51:32] Tony's blog, Malice for All, which is [51:34] obviously insane, came from a good place [51:37] [laughter] where he said, "I will not [51:39] let this stand. Not on my watch, [51:40] over my dead body. Are you going to sell [51:42] these people variable?" [51:43] >> For a while, he was he was like running [51:45] a they were running a financial advisor [51:46] for uh firm at night while he worked [51:48] during the day. And then finally had [51:50] enough people come over to be like, "All [51:51] right, we're going to do this as an [51:52] actual business." So yeah, you're right. [51:53] This was it was a total labor of love. [51:54] It's a really cool story. [51:56] >> So anyway, we threw this party for Tony [51:58] and Dena and it was really lovely. uh [52:00] they're just incredibly wonderful [52:02] people. And Tony in his wise words said [52:06] to me, "Your money is growing and your [52:09] time is shrinking in terms of like why [52:10] he wants to, you know, move on to the [52:12] next chapter of his life." And I just [52:14] love that. Your your money is growing, [52:16] your time is shrinking. [52:17] >> Yeah. He said he wants to like enjoy his [52:19] time now. They're in their 60s. He wants [52:20] to like enjoy retirement and do it now [52:22] while he's healthy. And yeah, great [52:24] people. Crazy that we have people at our [52:26] firm that are retiring though. [52:27] >> Yeah. Yeah. Been doing this for a [52:30] minute, Ben. [52:31] >> I guess so. Um, all right. Story time. [52:35] Uh, went my kids went to there's a place [52:37] in town here called Michigan's [52:38] Adventure. It's like a I It's not Sear [52:42] Point size. It's like half of that. It's [52:44] like they got some roller coasters. They [52:45] actually have the biggest largest wooden [52:46] roller coaster in America. [52:48] >> Get out. [52:48] >> Which is not very confidence inspiring. [52:52] Like you look at all these old boards. [52:53] Like how is this thing staying together? [52:55] So anyway, my wife took them there. I [52:57] worked during the day and she said, [52:58] "Hey, what? The park stays open till [52:59] 8:00. Meet us there at 5:00 and surprise [53:01] the kids." So I surprised the kids at [53:02] the water, it's half roller coasters and [53:04] stuff, half water park. So I met them at [53:06] the water park and then I'm going to go [53:07] ride some roller coasters with them at [53:09] the end of the day. [53:10] >> And uh so did that. And one of the [53:13] things you learn about water parks is [53:14] that I swear at water parks 50% of the [53:17] parents have tattoos now. [53:19] >> This was not this was not a thing when [53:21] we grew up. Parents did not have [53:22] tattoos. Maybe like someone had a dad [53:24] who was in the Navy who had like the [53:25] anchor on his arm or something, right? [53:28] And it was like really faded. But this [53:30] is the thing now that you notice that [53:31] like all the parents have tattoos. It's [53:33] it's kind of shocking how many there are [53:36] as a way I guess it's just a way to [53:38] express yourself now. Uh interesting. [53:40] Anyway, we go on this big roller [53:42] coaster. It's again it's the biggest [53:43] wooden roller coaster in the world. And [53:45] it doesn't look be that hard, but it's [53:46] like big drops, you know, and it it's [53:48] straight. It's all it is is up and down. [53:49] It's it's way faster than it looks. [53:52] called like Shiver My Timbers or [53:53] something. And uh my son George and my [53:55] daughter Libby, I know. Get it? Timbers. [53:58] >> Yeah, it's great. [53:59] >> My son George and my daughter Libby are [54:00] sitting in front of me and you've seen [54:01] the videos of people on rides where they [54:02] pass out and their whole body goes limp [54:04] like like this. You know that every drop [54:09] passed out and he he'd go on the drop, [54:12] he'd pass out and then he'd wake up and [54:14] he'd put his hands in the air and he'd [54:15] pass out and he put his hands in the air [54:17] and [54:18] >> Are you saying like literally? I I don't [54:19] know what you're talking about. You've [54:20] never seen those videos of someone [54:21] passing out on a ride before? Like the [54:23] the ones that shoot you up in the air [54:24] and like like the adrenaline or the the [54:26] blood flow to your head or something [54:28] makes you pass out. His whole body went [54:29] limp and he passed out. [54:30] >> This happens to [54:31] >> Holy [54:33] >> I thought you were like I thought it was [54:34] a metaphor. Were you freaking out? [54:36] >> No, it was hilarious. This happens to [54:37] >> Pete. Okay. I've never seen that before. [54:39] >> And I'm like Libby grabbed it and she [54:41] thought he was kidding. I'm like no, he [54:42] his his body was literally limp. But [54:44] then he'd wake up and he'd put his hands [54:45] back in the air and smile [laughter] [54:46] like he had no idea this was happening. [54:48] No clue. Unbelievable. [54:50] >> Yeah. So, after every ride now, he's [54:52] like, "You have to make sure I don't [54:53] pass out." All right. I'll I'll watch [54:54] you. [54:55] >> All right. Recommendations. [54:56] >> I had no idea. Um All right. So, as I [54:59] mentioned at the top of the show, I'm [55:00] like about 80% better. I'll be 100% [55:02] better tomorrow. We had visiting day on [55:04] Sunday. Um woke up at at at 5 in the [55:08] morning, was on the road at 6:00. [55:10] Visiting day started at uh 10, which is [55:12] totally not. [55:13] >> So, is visiting day one time of summer [55:14] or is it multiple times? [55:15] >> It's one time a summer. [55:16] >> Okay. [55:16] >> All right. So, it's a it's a sevenweek [55:18] camp and you visit them. I guess it's [55:20] four or four weeks into it and it was it [55:22] was great. It was uh it was really [55:25] really nice. Uh had a great time. I Kobe [55:29] told Robin that he want Oh, actually, [55:30] let me ask your your opinion on this. He [55:33] he uh he told Robin in confidence. [55:35] There's a secret I couldn't hear. [55:36] >> Right. [55:36] >> He wants cologne. [55:39] [laughter] [55:41] >> Okay. [snorts] [55:42] >> So, we are actually going up again next [55:44] weekend, which [55:45] >> he is. [55:45] >> I'm annoyed. He's nine years old. [55:47] >> He's nine years old. I'm going up next [55:48] weekend for rookie day for Logan. So I [55:50] said to the director, I said, "Dude, [55:53] come on. You have my kid for seven [55:54] weeks. You're gonna ruin two of my [55:55] weekends. [55:56] >> You're [snorts] taking two of my [55:57] weekends, [55:58] >> right?" [55:58] >> So we're going next week for Logan. Uh [56:01] what is a starter cologne? I have no [56:03] idea. I've been out of the game for a [56:04] while. [56:06] >> I I I'm not a I'm I stopped wearing [56:09] cologne probably after college. Uh [56:14] I don't know. I don't know. [56:15] >> I knew you were the wrong person to ask. [56:17] Can I tell you something? I love [56:18] >> like an Aqua Dehou or something or maybe [56:19] even like an Abercrombie one for him or [56:21] something just to get him started. I [56:23] >> I love cologne and I don't I don't mind [56:25] uh I like when people smell good. I [56:27] don't really wear cologne myself. I do [56:28] it once. [56:28] >> I don't mind it either. I just I feel [56:30] like that's the kind of thing you stop [56:31] once you get married, right? No more [56:32] cologne after you get married. [56:33] >> I wear it like here and there if I'm [56:34] going out maybe. Um anyway, I have to [56:36] buy [56:36] >> So, do you think he he ran into other [56:38] kids who Duncan says get him some brute [56:40] out of [laughter] his chest? [56:43] So I So Robin told me I I asked him a [56:45] few minutes I said hey Kobe uh you have [56:47] any girlfriends? He said he's like no. [56:51] He said but I'm going to prom. I said oh [56:54] who you going with? He goes I don't [56:56] know. I don't know her name. I said what [56:58] what do you mean you don't know? He goes [56:59] I I don't know. She just I said one word [57:01] to her. I said what word did he say to [57:03] her? She and she asked if he wanted to [57:04] go to prom with her and he said I said [57:06] sure. [57:07] >> And I said she this is a camp thing. A [57:09] prom at camp. [57:10] >> Camp thing. So [57:11] >> okay. He doesn't know where. [57:12] >> So that's why he wants his cologne. [57:13] >> Yeah. [57:14] >> Uh I don't know. Start him off with [57:15] deodorant first, maybe then cologne. [57:17] >> He doesn't need deodorant. He's [57:19] >> But I'm saying if you Anyway, so um so [57:22] that was Sunday. [57:23] >> Drove home. Um went to sleep on Monday. [57:26] I woke up at 5:50. My brain just woke up [57:30] and I walked to Starbucks and I I was [57:31] actually happy I woke up early because I [57:32] had a lot of work to catch up on. Um [57:35] Friday was a retirement party. Saturday [57:37] I was out all day. So I felt like I had [57:39] some things to catch up on. want to [57:40] spend a couple hours before we went to [57:41] the beach doing some work. So, I was I [57:43] was happy. Took a walk to Starbucks and [57:47] uh got outside and I just felt my [57:49] stomach turn and I ran into the bathroom [57:52] and projectile vomited. Now, I made it [57:54] into the toilet, but it was really weird [57:57] and I felt better. Uh I didn't really [57:58] think anything of it. I just thought [58:00] maybe I just ate something funny. Came [58:02] home, [58:04] laid in a lounge chair. Um, and I took [58:07] my AirPods out and I didn't have my case [58:09] with me. I just put my AirPods on the [58:11] top of my phone. Ru, my my one and a [58:15] half-year-old boxer, um, went to get my [58:18] AirPods and before I could like react, [58:21] she hit one of them, bounced onto the [58:23] ground right into the bottom of the [58:24] pool. [58:26] >> Oh. [58:26] >> So, that's my 11th pair of AirPods, I [58:29] suppose. Could be 15 at this point, just [58:31] chewing through AirPods. And at that [58:33] moment, I felt my stomach turn again. [58:35] ran inside and more projectile vomiting. [58:38] And at that point, I said, "I don't I [58:39] don't feel good. I'm going to go lie [58:40] down." So, over the next like hour or [58:42] two, I threw up like two more times. So, [58:44] I threw up four times between 6:30 and I [58:48] guess around 11. [58:49] >> Thought you were looking a little more [58:50] slender there. [58:51] >> You know what? You know what's funny? [58:52] You should say that. I've been I've this [58:53] has been a really poor diet summer for [58:56] Michael, like all the other summers. And [58:58] I went on the scale yesterday or today [59:00] and I I had to lose some weight, right? [59:02] I didn't really eat anything. Just been [59:03] throwing up. Nothing. How's it possible? [59:05] Not even a single pound. [59:08] >> It's impressive. [59:09] >> Anyway, why am I oversharing all of [59:12] this? Because I was in bed yesterday [59:15] and I got to do some watching now. I was [59:18] so tired yesterday, just drained. I And [59:20] I didn't even feel sick. Like, I feel [59:22] okay. I'm just tired. Uh I slept like 20 [59:25] hours in bed yesterday. But I did watch [59:26] a few things. I tried to throw on I [59:30] tried to throw on uh uh Masters of the [59:32] Universe, the He-Man movie. [59:34] >> I watched it with my kids this weekend. [59:36] My kids loved it. [59:37] >> Okay. Id [59:40] I I four minutes into it, I said, "No, [59:42] >> it's Yeah, I I I was in and I probably [59:44] watched half of it with them cuz I grew [59:46] up on He-Man, [59:47] >> of course. [59:47] >> Uh I have the power. [59:48] >> They did a It It felt to me like it was [59:50] one of those uh Thor movies. It feel [59:53] like a Thor where they kind of like [59:54] poked fun, but it was also out in some [59:57] other dimension or my my son, he loved [60:00] it. [60:00] >> Okay. [60:00] >> Can't wait for number two. Loved it. [60:02] >> All right. Well, anyway, I I got four [60:04] minutes in. I said, "This is definitely [60:05] for George." [60:06] >> It's a kid movie. [60:07] >> This for George, not for me. Yeah. [60:08] >> Um I also made it I made it about 25 [60:10] minutes into Mortal Kombat 2. [60:13] >> Also just really bad. [60:15] >> Not as not quite as bad as [60:16] >> Not surprisingly. [60:17] >> Yeah. [60:17] >> Um All right. Uh I did watch a full [60:20] movie. I watched Pressure. [60:22] Pressure is with Brendan Frasier plays [60:24] uh Ike Eisenhower. [60:26] >> Oh, it's a D-Day one, right? [60:27] >> Yeah. So, this is a true story. [60:29] Apparently, we won the war because we [60:30] have better meteorologists. At least [60:32] that's what legend that's what they say [60:33] in the movie. Um so, the movie is about [60:37] the the 72 hours leading up to D-Day and [60:41] one meteorologist is battling another [60:44] meteorologist. Should we or shouldn't we [60:45] go? Because weather conditions have a [60:48] lot to do about, you know, when you're [60:50] storming the beach. Uh, and this is a [60:53] great sick in bed movie. [60:54] >> That to me sounds like they've run out [60:55] of World War II ideas. [60:56] >> No, dude. This is very good. [60:58] >> Okay. [60:58] >> It's a very good movie. A great sick in [61:00] bed movie. Maybe maybe an airplane [61:03] movie, but might be too boring for that. [61:05] Under no other circumstances when I [61:06] watch this cuz it's not exactly the most [61:08] riveting uh concept, but it was [61:10] effective. They did great. Um, and that [61:13] was about it. Other than that, I just [61:14] slept all day. But uh I forgot to [61:16] mention this. Last week, I watched [61:18] Tuner. You familiar with this? No. [61:21] >> So, Tuner is [61:24] sort of uh [61:27] it felt like a Safy Brothers movie [61:29] because it was sort of chaotic like [61:30] Uncut Gems a little bit. [61:31] >> Okay. [61:32] >> Um and it was sort of like it reminded [61:34] me of Panic Room a little bit. Not quite [61:37] sure why. [61:38] >> Okay. [61:38] >> Maybe because there was breakins. [61:40] Anyway, Dustin Hoppin is in it. Very [61:42] random. Okay. [61:43] >> It's about a guy that has like this [61:44] special supersonic hearing [61:47] >> and so he could break into safes because [61:49] he could hear like the click click [61:50] clicks. [61:52] >> I'm interested. [61:53] >> Pretty good. [61:54] >> All right. [61:55] >> Yeah, pretty fun. Pretty fun. Uh I think [61:57] I rent it on Prime. [61:58] >> Okay. All right. My wife and I watched [62:00] Disclosure Day this week. Did you see [62:01] the theater? [62:03] >> No, because Josh ruined it for me. Josh [62:04] said it was terrible. [62:06] >> It's it's the kind of movie that you [62:07] you'd be glad you didn't see it in the [62:09] theater. Um so it's got a 6.6 six on [62:12] IMDb and I think that's being generous [62:14] and I didn't hear a lot of the the [62:17] preview made it look awesome. Like if [62:19] you just watch the preview to go, "Oh, [62:20] this is very interesting." Uh it was [62:23] just the movie was kind of a mess. Like [62:26] it starts out and it's just like it [62:27] feels you're in the middle of a movie [62:28] and then there are some parts where you [62:30] go like, "Oh, that's interesting." [62:31] Because it's an alien movie and it's [62:32] it's uh it's just it has a great cast. [62:36] It's got Emily Blunt, who I love. It's [62:38] got uh the guy who plays Prince Phillip [62:41] or Prince Charles in the I can't [62:43] remember his name. Uh it's got Colin FTH [62:46] and all these different people. Great [62:48] cast and it felt like a Netflix movie. [62:51] Like it felt it was just very [62:53] >> Yes, that that's the best I can say. It [62:54] was very disjointed and it got done. My [62:56] wife and I were like, [62:58] >> "Wait, hold on. Let's not gloss over the [63:01] fact that this is not a Netflix movie. [63:03] It was actually done by quite a famous [63:05] director." [63:06] >> Yes. And you know what? I think I'm [63:08] going to give this is his Jordan on the [63:10] Wizards. I'm going to pretend like it [63:11] didn't happen. All right. This is [63:12] Michael Jordan on the Wizards. Didn't [63:13] happen. [63:14] >> Oh, man. I'm not even I'm not even going [63:16] to watch it. [63:18] >> No, it it was it was quite bad. Uh I [63:21] just I even like [63:24] >> Yeah, I I was really Again, there's [63:26] parts where like, oh, that's kind of [63:27] interesting, but it just it was it was [63:29] all over the place and it just hit with [63:31] a like five minutes into the movie, I [63:33] go, oh no. Oh no. You can just tell. Oh, [63:36] no. [63:36] >> Had to watch the whole thing. [63:38] >> Uh, listen, he gave us Jaws and Indiana [63:41] Jones. I'm not going to fault him. And I [63:43] think that's why there wasn't a lot of [63:44] critical push back on the movie [63:46] >> cuz he gets a free pass. And I'm I'm [63:48] okay with that. [63:50] >> The guy gave us Jaws. [63:51] >> ET. [63:52] >> ET. He gave us ET. [63:54] >> Close Encounters. [63:56] >> This I mean [63:57] >> Jurassic. [63:58] >> This was probably like a 5.9 in my in [64:00] Ben scale. just uh [64:04] >> this one like you would go, "Man, I'm so [64:06] glad I didn't see that one at the [64:07] theater." Some movies you have to see at [64:08] the theater. This one you did not. [64:10] >> You know who I am seeing tomorrow? [64:11] >> What's that? [64:12] >> I'm very excited. If for nothing else, [64:14] because of my love for I Love You, Man [64:17] going to see Rush. [64:20] >> Wait, what's that? [64:21] >> The band. [64:22] >> Oh. [64:24] Oh, okay. [64:25] >> The scene where they're when they go to [64:27] the concert. [64:29] >> Yeah. and he's licking his bass or [64:31] whatever. [64:32] >> Yeah, [laughter] [64:34] >> I didn't know Rush was still Is it Is it [64:36] the deal where like half the band's [64:37] really dead and they've replaced them or [64:39] >> the drummer's dead? [64:39] >> Who knows? Okay. [laughter] [64:41] >> All right. [64:41] >> I don't know. [64:42] >> But I'm very excited. [64:43] >> Okay. All right. Good stuff. All right. [64:46] You did it. [64:47] >> Credit to me. We don't We don't We don't [64:49] miss shows. That's just not It's just [64:51] not what we do here. [64:52] >> We show up [64:53] >> every And every three months, Michael [64:55] has a flu game. [64:56] >> Stop it. I'm relatively healthy for a [64:59] pretty unhealthy time. [65:00] >> This happens to you. You say you never [65:01] get sick. Duncan's going to back me up [65:03] here. You You had this three months ago [65:04] where you were in bed for 24 hours [65:06] again. [65:08] >> I did have the flu this winter. I did. [65:11] >> All right. It It happens to the best of [65:12] us. Uh I think I think we need to ask [65:15] for cologne [65:17] uh recommendations for your son. I think [65:20] like an aqua aquade. [65:22] You know what's a really good one? [65:23] >> I believe it's pronounced Aquadeio [65:26] >> maybe. Uh, you know what's a really good [65:28] one that you wouldn't think is that uh [65:30] the Johnny Depp one. Whatever his one [65:31] is. Savage or something. Smells really [65:34] good. [65:35] >> Okay. You said you haven't worn a [65:37] cologne since college. [65:39] >> I'm getting back into the game. [65:40] [laughter] Try [65:41] >> the truth comes out. Sage. [65:44] >> Do it. [65:44] >> All right. Animal spirits at the [65:46] compoundnews.com. Personal emails, [65:48] personal responses. Thank you for [65:49] listening. We'll see you next time. [65:52] [music] [65:59] >> [music]