Raoul Pal Predicts Crypto Asset Class Will Reach $100 Trillion

Raoul Pal预测加密资产规模将达100万亿美元 前高盛高管Raoul Pal认为，法币贬值以及AI带来的知识极大丰富，使得主流Layer-1区块链网络成为未来十年保全财富的唯一有效对冲手段。 Raoul Pal描绘了一幅影响深远的宏观愿景：AI的指数级增长正威胁着传统知识工作者的职业生涯，而货币贬值则在持续侵蚀现金和传统资产。他断言，在机构大规模入场之前，无需许可的公链是散户投资者获得改变人生的未稀释上升空间的主要残留资产类别。为安全度过这一转变，Pal强调应通过定投方式坚持持有Bitcoin、Ethereum和Solana等核心网络资产，同时远离杠杆和Meme币等高风险陷阱。他最终指出，积累财富本身并非目的，而是确保个人自由和改善整体生活质量的工具。 向知识链上游移动并聚焦于高交易量市场或专属小众市场，是获取高利润率、可扩展收入的关键。 (33:00) 积累长期财富需要顺应长期趋势，同时也要认识到屏幕疲劳正在推高现实物理世界体验的价值。 (36:11) AI自动化与广泛普及的AI陪伴将创造前所未有的闲暇时间，同时改变人们应对孤独和建立连接的方式。 (39:01) AI的迅猛发展使得零边际成本的知识极大丰富，正在侵蚀传统专业护城河并迫使人们迅速做出调整。 (44:06) 指数级演进的AI正在加速硬件与软件的反馈循环，推动物理和数字行业大范围实现劳动力自动化。 (48:43)

Macro investor Raoul Pal argues that compounding currency debasement and artificial intelligence disruption are dismantling traditional middle-class wealth creation, leaving younger generations structurally disadvantaged. He contends that individuals must develop asymmetric career skills and allocate capital into exponential network assets—primarily public blockchains—to outpace systemic purchasing power erosion. Structural Wealth Erosion and the Debasement Trap (5:38) Pal asserts that conventional savings and homeownership no longer guarantee financial security. Under his 'Everything Code' framework, synchronized central banks inject liquidity to manage sovereign debt refinancing, driving an estimated 8% annual currency debasement alongside baseline inflation of roughly 3%. This establishes an effective 11% annual hurdle rate that erodes purchasing power, meaning broad market benchmarks like the S&P 500—averaging 10% to 11% annual nominal returns—merely preserve baseline capital rather than generating net wealth. This squeeze falls heavily on younger workers. A generation ago, an entry-level home in London cost roughly 3.5 times average earnings, compared to 8 to 10 times annual income today. Pal cites demographic data showing that compared to a 30-year-old in 1983, a 30-year-old today is substantially less likely to live independently (64% versus 85%), be married (47% versus 80%), have children (32% versus 60%), or own a home (32% versus 50%), framing these shifts as structural economic adaptations rather than mere lifestyle preferences. Career Asymmetry and Moving Up Value Chains (13:58) To build investment capital in an inflationary environment, Pal advises professionals in their 20s and early 30s to deprioritize work-life balance and focus on maximizing primary cash flow. Drawing on insights shared by host Steven Bartlett, he cautions against competing in low-barrier, mass-market arenas where returns are naturally compressed. Instead, workers should reverse-engineer a five-year trajectory to cultivate deep domain specialization combined with broad cross-disciplinary literacy, creating an edge insulated from automation and entry-level competition. Both speakers emphasize that significant compensation gains require deploying skills into high-leverage ecosystems and climbing the knowledge hierarchy. For instance, transitioning from manual service labor to managing employees, and ultimately to selling proprietary operational training, replaces linear labor with scalable, high-margin expertise. Pal also underscores the importance of riding secular tailwinds—such as the wellness market expanding around GLP-1 weight-loss medications—where demand surges well before market saturation. Exponential AI Acceleration and Knowledge Commoditization (48:43) Pal characterizes artificial intelligence as an 'exponential squared' technological shift, where self-improving algorithmic loops compress decades of progress into quarterly cycles. Because large models operate at near-zero marginal cost, they are rapidly commoditizing pure knowledge work, threatening traditional professional services like law and coding. Furthermore, Pal warns that autonomous agentic AI will soon automate end-to-end commercial operations—from product design to localized marketing—in minutes, compressing standard digital startup moats. For retail investors, Pal notes that mega-cap equities like Microsoft or Alphabet offer limited upside (e.g., 5x) because early hyper-growth is captured privately by venture capital. Bartlett and Pal identify a notable counter-trend: as digital content and automated knowledge become abundant, human attention and physical, unreplicable offline experiences—such as nature retreats, community spaces, and sports franchises—command a durable economic premium that artificial intelligence cannot replicate. Blockchain Scarcity and Disciplined Asset Allocation (67:29) While artificial intelligence introduces infinite digital abundance, Pal explains that blockchains introduce cryptographically enforceable digital scarcity and decentralized consensus, bypassing traditional fractional-reserve banking where depositors function as unsecured creditors. Pal forecasts the total crypto asset class will expand from roughly $2 trillion to $100 trillion over a 10-year horizon (2032–2034), pointing to practical adoption in tokenized gaming economies and immutable commodity trade documentation as proof of real-world enterprise utility. To capture this projected growth without succumbing to destructive trading psychology, Pal advocates a conservative 'don't fuck this up' allocation. He recommends avoiding financial leverage and speculative meme coins, allocating 80% to 90% of a crypto portfolio across proven Layer-1 networks: Bitcoin as a digital store of value, Ethereum for decentralized smart contracts, and Solana for high-speed retail adoption. Realizing long-term gains, he cautions, requires systematic dollar-cost averaging and the emotional tolerance to endure recurring 60% to 70% cyclical market drawdowns. Pal acknowledges that his digital asset thesis entails real risks, including severe multi-year volatility, regulatory hostility, and operational vulnerabilities like private key loss. Nonetheless, he maintains that public blockchains represent the only permissionless asset class capable of outpacing fiat debasement. Ultimately, he frames financial accumulation as a tool to secure autonomy and life quality, noting that genuine fulfillment often requires far less capital than assumed once detached from conventional status competition.

宏观投资人Raoul Pal在与Steven Bartlett的对话中指出，全球债务周期与货币贬值正以每年约11%的速度侵蚀传统储蓄的购买力，年轻世代因薪资停滞与高房价而深陷财富困境；他主张个体必须通过在利基领域建立非对称优势、拥抱AI驱动的高杠杆生产力，并将超额现金配置于以区块链为代表的指数型资产以保护未来财富。 法币贬值陷阱与代际财富鸿沟 (0:00) Pal提出了被称为“万物密码（The Everything Code）”的宏观分析框架，指出由于人口老龄化与政府债务激增，全球央行陷入了大约每四年一轮的流动性再注入循环，导致法币相对于稀缺资产每年贬值约8%，加上约3%的基础通胀，个人购买力每年实际流失约11%。在这一折现率门槛下，即便标普500指数录得约10%至11%的年化名义回报，投资者实际也只是在原地踏步；黄金与普通房地产在抵御货币稀释时表现出平庸或落后，仅有科技巨头与加密资产在历史数据中跑赢该门槛。 这种结构性失衡对年轻一代造成了深层挤压。与1983年相比，当今年轻人购买首套房所需资金已从平均年薪的3.5倍跃升至8到10倍。宏观指标显示，当前30岁人群的独立居住率从1983年的85%骤降至64%，结婚率从80%降至47%，生育率与购房率均从当年的高位跌至32%。Pal认为，传统依赖企业年金、存款与购置普通住宅实现阶层跃升的路径已经失效，把现金存放在实行部分准备金制度的银行中，本质上只是让储户成为无担保债权人。 利基杠杆与逆向工程职业路径 (12:18) 针对年轻人的职业规划，Pal主张在20岁至30岁出头应暂时放弃“工作与生活平衡”，聚焦于高强度的技能积累和主营收入最大化。他建议采用5年为周期的逆向工程规划法，将宏观职业目标拆解为核心执行力、业务管理、销售沟通及行业前沿洞察等多维模块。Bartlett与其兄长的经验亦表明，参与低门槛的同质化竞争无法产生超额回报，个人必须在特定利基领域建立难以被AI和同行替代的不对称优势。 在技能变现路径上，Pal提出应主动沿着知识价值链向上攀升，例如从一线体力劳动服务升级至团队管理，再跃升至输出商业知识与培训体系。此外，相同技能在不同商业环境下的变现溢价存在数量级差异：以社交媒体营销为例，服务大众消费品服装品牌仅能获得线性报酬，而若应用于拟IPO企业的市值叙事塑造，则可调动数亿美元的估值弹性。同时，个人应顺应长期结构性趋势（如GLP-1减肥药衍生的健康生态，或针对数字化疲劳的反向线下体验）来放大自身努力的回报。 AI指数级迭代与数字知识贬值 (48:43) Pal将人工智能定义为人类历史上最具颠覆性的技术变革，其演进遵循芯片、软件、算法与能源多维度自我优化的“双重指数循环（exponential squared）”，以每90天为周期发生质变。在这一进程中，长期作为高薪壁垒的法律、医疗及技术知识迅速商品化为边际成本接近于零的公共资源；自动驾驶与自动化仓储机器人也在加速替代传统物流和驾驶劳动力。 随之而来的Agentic AI将使在线商业闭环（包括编码、品牌搭建、多语言本地化和投放）在数分钟内实现完全自动化，使得传统纯软件和线上中介的竞争优势被严重压缩。Pal预测，在此背景下社会将出现分化，而真实的实体体验（如高端生态探险旅宿、无手机社交场域与体育竞技）因具备不可复制的注意力价值而变得更为稀缺。此外，由于微软、Meta等公开上市科技巨头市值已达数万亿美元，其对普通投资者的翻倍潜力有限，早期指数级红利多被私募VC垄断，普通散户难以单纯依赖传统股市实现财富跨越。 区块链真相机制与加密配置纪律 (67:29) 与法币银行体系中高杠杆抵押及再质押带来的脆弱性相反，Pal将区块链定义为基于全网共识算法的分布式“安全真相机器”，它在数字环境中重新确立了不可篡改的排他性所有权与数字稀缺性。除了智能合约在供应链溯源、金融结算和跨游戏资产确权中的落地，区块链的代币化机制使全球普通投资者能够在无准入门槛的情况下，直接持有数字基础设施网络的底层代币，分享技术采纳的非对称红利。 针对投资执行，Pal与Bartlett警示了散户追逐高杠杆和Meme币所导致的灾难性后果，强调在指数级赛道中首要目标是“不损失代币”。Pal提出了“别搞砸（Don't Fuck This Up）”组合原则，建议将80%至90%的资金配置于具备强网络效应的基础层资产（如Bitcoin、Ethereum、Solana），并辅以长期的定投策略（DCA），将投机性仓位严格限制在10%以内；同时使用硬件冷钱包（如Ledger）掌控私钥，防范中心化机构风险。Pal基于宏观周期推测，加密资产总市值有望在2032至2034年间从约2万亿美元扩展至100万亿美元，但他反复强调这属于长期趋势预测，投资者必须充分认识到每四年可能出现高达70%至80%的剧烈回撤及监管和安全风险。 Pal总结指出，财富本质上仅是获取选择权与人身自由的记分体系，真正的最优交易是生活品质本身。尽管区块链与AI提供了跨越阶层的潜在工具，但该预测依然建立在技术采纳曲线延续、去中心化共识不被颠覆以及投资者能经受住极端周期波动的假设之上。

## Background 本期内容由知名播客频道 The Diary Of A CEO（由 Steven Bartlett 主持）于 2024 年 11 月 7 日发布在 YouTube 平台。页面简介指出，前高盛高管兼 Real Vision 联合创始人罗尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）在节目中发出警示：距离一切彻底改变大约只剩 6 年时间，他深度剖析了 AI 对全球经济的颠覆性重构，并阐释了加密货币为何是普通人在资产贬值与阶级固化中突围生存的最佳机会。 ## TL;DR Raoul Pal 深入拆解了以每年 11% 复合速度吞噬普通人财富的“货币隐性贬值”真相，指出传统靠买房和储蓄跑赢周期的路径已经彻底失效。他提出了“万物法则”（The Everything Code），揭示由于全球主权债务规模庞大，央行每隔四年被迫向市场注入流动性，导致唯有科技股和加密网络能够真正击败法币稀释。随着生成式 AI 和 Agentic AI 迅速将纯粹的知识边际价值砸向零，普通人必须在某一细分领域锻造专业不公平优势，并借助比特币、以太坊、Solana 等具备全球均质特性的去中心化网络进行长期非对称配置。节目的最后升华至人生哲学，强调投资和赚钱的终极目标不是囤积数字，而是换取摆脱困境的生活品质、内心自由与深刻的真实人生体验。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对话在深沉的危机警示与振奋的破局希望之间交织推进。Steven Bartlett 的提问敏锐直白，既代表当代年轻人宣泄买不起房、财富落后于父辈的窒息与迷茫，又以创业者的敏锐不断深挖实操细节；Raoul Pal 则展现出历经宏观牛熊的从容与坦诚，既有将银行体系与复利真相拆骨剥皮的冷峻，也有自嘲早年比特币交易踩坑、险些给员工乱升职的幽默与温情。整场播客没有浮躁的喊单与说教，更像是一场兼具硬核宏观推演与厚重人生哲思的深夜围炉长谈，带给听众强烈的思想震颤与清醒的掌控感。 ## Bulletin - [01:52:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6773s) 全球债务占 GDP 达 400%，央行被迫每 4 年注入流动性以借新还旧，导致法币相对稀缺资产年均贬值约 8%，叠加通胀后实际折损门槛高达每年 11%。 - [09:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=597s) 当代 30 岁青年的经济指标较 1983 年全面滑坡：独立居住率降至 64%，结婚率降至 47%，住房拥有率和生育率均暴跌至约 32%，成为历史上第一代财富不如父辈的群体。 - [01:56:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7018s) 在扣除 11% 货币稀释门槛后，标普 500、传统房产与黄金实际增量几乎为零或为负，唯有纳斯达克科技股与加密资产能够带来超越贬值的真实回报。 - [43:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=2615s) 生成式 AI 将知识的边际成本压至零，在削弱传统知识型职业壁垒的同时，催生出基于个人 IP 信任的“一对一数字分身”以及青少年情感陪伴等新爆发点。 - [01:41:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6101s) 加密市场总规模预计在未来十年从 2 万亿美元扩张至 100 万亿美元，普通投资者的最佳法则是不加杠杆、长期持有 BTC、ETH、SOL 等具备网络效应的核心资产。 ## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=0s) 法币购买力正以每年约 11%（8% 贬值 + 3% 通胀）的速度隐性蒸发，单纯依赖银行储蓄注定会导致资产不断缩水。 - [09:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=597s) 当代年轻人陷入生存陷阱，购房成本相较于收入飙升了三倍，导致结婚率、生育率与房屋拥有率相比四十年前腰斩。 - [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=738s) 二十多岁的核心策略应是放弃空谈生活平衡，在垂直领域建立深厚专长成为专家，并以此撬动超额现金流。 - [14:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=897s) 运用“五年倒推法”具象化未来目标，通过逆向工程拆解技能短板并去成熟机构打工偷师，构建个人的不公平竞争优势。 - [24:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1445s) 传统自住房本质上是不可变现的“生活方式银行”，过早背负高额房贷会极大剥夺资本在年轻时获取高复利增值的机会。 - [31:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1918s) 个人技能变现应寻找估值放大最高的舞台，将相同专业能力服务于非价格敏感的超级企业或富豪群体以获取超额回报。 - [47:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=2844s) 生成式 AI 将知识供给变为无限，彻底终结了以信息差为核心的知识稀缺性，传统白领脑力工作的溢价正在瓦解。 - [56:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3364s) 自主智能体（Agentic AI）将在数分钟内克隆并上线完整商业系统，这正在迅速打破传统纯软件初创公司的竞争护城河。 - [57:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3460s) 在 AI 科技巨头瓜分了早期超额回报的格局下，重仓科技核心股和加密资产成了普通投资者抵抗被技术淘汰的唯一选择。 - [01:02:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3755s) 传统银行业的部分准备金制度与多层抵押隐藏着巨大的系统性流动性风险，储户本质上沦为了无担保的债权人。 - [01:05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3942s) 区块链利用分布式共识解决了拜占庭将军问题，充当数字时代的“安全真实机器”，在虚拟世界首次建立了不可篡改的数字稀缺性。 - [01:20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=4848s) 智能合约重塑了人类社会的契约执行方式，顶级大宗商品巨头早在 2020 年就已将信用证与发货清算全面搬上了以太坊。 - [01:26:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5202s) 普通人进入加密领域的进阶路径应从定投 BTC 开始，逐步向以太坊生态、高性能公链（如 Solana）乃至下一代公链（如 Sui）轮动配置。 - [01:32:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5534s) 牛市“香蕉区”的狂热会导致投资者盲目踏上风险曲线加杠杆投机模因币，投资者生存的核心铁律在于“绝不失去核心代币”。 - [01:37:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5865s) 男性在承担家庭支柱压力与多巴胺奖赏回路刺激下更容易产生赌博投机成瘾，在牛熊周期中应严格限制投机仓位不超过 10%。 - [01:43:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6211s) 即便预测存在 50% 以上的误差，加密资产从 2 万亿向数十万亿美元扩张的长期复利仍远胜其他传统资产类别。 - [01:56:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7018s) “万物法则”（The Everything Code）揭示全球债务与人口老龄化倒逼央行每 4 年注入流动性，资产配置必须坚决押注于科技与加密资产。 - [02:01:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7309s) 金钱本质上只是一套记分系统，人生最极致的交易是换取生活品质与跨越舒适区所获得的独特人生体验。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=0s) 6年倒计时与传统财富幻觉的破灭 在节目开篇的精彩混剪中，前高盛高管、Real Vision 联合创始人兼 CEO 罗尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）抛出了一个极其尖锐的警告：距离一切彻底改变大约只剩下 6 年时间。长期以来，大众坚信把钱存在银行是绝对安全的、买房置业是稳赚不赔的，但这套旧时代的信条早已坍塌。现实是极其残酷的——当你把储蓄存入银行账户的那一刻起，你在本质上并不真正拥有任何东西，而货币隐性贬值正以每年约 11% 的速度无情蚕食你的财富，让你的未来变得愈发贫穷。30岁左右的年轻一代面临前所未有的困境：买不起房、积蓄寥寥、背负沉重的大学学贷，甚至成为了历史上第一代财富水平不如自己父母的群体。 面对主持人史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）关于普通人如何破局的追问，帕尔直言不讳地指出，传统的投资路径正在失效。标普500指数（S&P 500）已经不值得年轻人耗费宝贵时间，房地产的暴利时代一去不复返，黄金甚至在跑输真实通胀。相比之下，加密货币（如比特币）正以互联网两倍的扩张速度发展，年化复合增长率高达 150%，为资本有限的普通人提供了短期内实现阶级跃迁的罕见窗口。帕尔强调，即使你只有 500 美元，现在入场也绝没有错失良机。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 传统财务陷阱与资产分化 accDescr: 对比传统银行存款、老资产与加密货币在资产购买力上的差异 subgraph Trap["传统金融陷阱"] A["银行存款"] --> B["年均贬值 11%"] C["传统房产与标普500"] --> D["跑输实际货币增发速度"] end subgraph Reality["年轻人现状"] B & D --> E["财富落后于父辈 / 无法购房"] end subgraph Solution["新资产配置"] F["加密资产 (BTC 等)"] --> G["以两倍于互联网的速度扩张"] G --> H["年化高增长打破贫困陷阱"] end ``` - 银行储蓄受货币隐性稀释影响，实际购买力以每年约 11% 的速度缩水。 - 加密网络当前的采纳速度是早期互联网普及速度的两倍。 - 视频开场还穿插了主持人针对节目订阅率的呼吁：常客听众中有 53% 尚未点击订阅，主持人承诺将根据反馈持续寻找顶尖嘉宾，为受众打造更具价值的内容。 --- ### [02:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=127s) 欧债危机与 Real Vision 的创办使命 进入深度对话后，史蒂文询问帕尔在当前人生阶段的核心使命是什么。帕尔坦言，虽然做任何事都有自我实现的成分，但他凭借 30 年金融生涯积累的宏观分析工具与认知框架，能够清晰看透世界运转的底层走向、普通人面临的巨大风险以及潜在的机会窗口。他深感有责任将这些专业洞见传递给大众，帮助尽可能多的人走出困境。 这一使命感的源头可以追溯到 2008 年全球金融危机和 2012 年欧洲债务危机。当时帕尔住在西班牙的海滨小镇，通过自创的宏观研究服务《环球宏观投资者》（Global Macro Investor）为全球顶级对冲基金撰写高阶报告。他精准预测了危机的爆发，并多次力劝身边的朋友尽早防范，但几乎没有人相信他。随着西班牙房地产崩盘，周遭的朋友几乎全军覆没。更残酷的是欧债危机全面爆发时，欧洲多国政府与银行陷入破产绝境，官方并未采取传统的“外部救助”（Bail-out），而是推行了“内部自救”（Bail-in）机制——直接冻结并没收普通储户的银行存款来偿还债务。帕尔父母的朋友乃至多位世交在一夜之间被彻底清零，他们痛苦地质问：“为什么我们之前对此一无所知？” 这句“为什么我们之前不知道？”深深刺痛了帕尔。当时正值“占领华尔街”运动爆发，民众普遍陷入对体制的绝望与愤怒之中：人们原以为银行安全、房屋坚挺、体制在保护平民，梦醒时分却发现整个系统只为少数特权阶层服务，惹下祸端的华尔街银行家甚至无人入狱。原本帕尔的研究报告只面向门槛极高的大型资产管理机构，直到早期他写的一两篇宏观分析文章被金融网站 ZeroHedge 转载并引发病毒式传播，他意识到普通大众对真实的金融知识有着强烈的渴求。于是，帕尔联合创办了金融媒体平台 Real Vision，邀请华尔街最核心的顶级操盘手与思想家，毫无保留地拆解金融运作的真实细节。 --- ### [05:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=338s) “挽救未来”与宏观层面的阶层困境 当被问及普通观众对他的工作会有何评价时，帕尔认为他们最想说的就是一句简单的“谢谢”。他解释道，人类幸福与不幸的根源，往往在于你对自己“未来形象”的预期与你“当下处境”之间是否存在一条清晰可见的路径；无论是财富积累还是身体健康，逻辑完全一致。当人们彻底迷失、看不见未来的希望时，愤怒与焦虑便会不可避免地爆发。Real Vision 的核心目标，正是用一句直白的行业黑话来概括——“帮人们挽救他们搞砸的未来”（Unfuck people's future），为陷入绝望的人提供切实可行的突围选项。 史蒂文随即要求帕尔从大局（Macro）视角出发，详细拆解到底是什么宏观力量正在毁掉年轻人的未来。帕尔指出，在剔除通胀因素后，西方社会的实际工资水平已经停滞了数十年，人们并没有真正变富，曾经闪耀的“美国梦”对绝大多数普通人而言已经沦为幻影。现实只剩下日复一日的底层打磨（grind it out），养老金缩水，体面退休并在加勒比海邮轮上安享晚年的诺言早已成为谎言。 这种系统性困境在 35 岁左右的千禧一代身上体现得尤为露骨。帕尔以自身经历对比：当他在 30 岁时在伦敦购买人生第一套房时，尽管身处高薪的金融行业，那套位于黄金地段的优质房产总价仅相当于他当时年薪的 3.5 倍。而时至今日，同样的房产如果换算给当今年轻投行家的薪水，价格已经飙升至年薪的 8 到 10 倍，购房成本足足暴涨了三倍之多。房屋不仅仅是居所和生活质量的保障，更是一种将当期结余储蓄转化为未来消费能力的长期资产。当 36 岁的千禧一代买不起房、买不起足够的股票份额、同时背负沉重大学债务时，他们被死死困在无法积累资产的陷阱中，不得不年过三十依然与人合租，甚至被迫推迟结婚与生育。 ### [09:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=597s) 两代人的残酷差距：当代三十岁青年的经济困境 Raoul Pal 用一组触目惊心的数据对比揭示了当代年轻人面临的残酷现实。从 1983 年至今，年轻一代的生活指标全面崩溃：能够独立居住、负担得起房租或房贷的年轻人比例从 80% 大幅下滑至 62%–64%；结婚率直接腰斩；三十岁人群的住房拥有率从 50% 暴跌至约 30%–32%；生儿育女的比例更是从 60% 缩水至 32%。这直接导致人口出生率断崖式下跌，因为人们根本负担不起组建家庭的成本。 这种统计数据的崩塌折射出底层深重的绝望感。如今三十岁上下的人群不得不打两份、三份甚至四份工，这绝非出于热爱，没有人想每周工作七天、每天苦干十二个小时，他们纯粹是被生存所迫。相比之下，他们如今正步入七十多岁退休阶段的父母辈（婴儿潮一代）曾是人类历史上最富裕的一代。当前的年轻人是历史上第一代财富水平赶不上父辈的群体，“美国梦”的许诺变成了“你无论如何努力，都不如身为中产阶级父母过得体面”。 - **独立居住率**：1983 年 30 岁人群中约 85% 独立居住，如今降至 64%，多数人被迫与他人合租或与父母同住。 - **结婚率与生育率**：1983 年 30 岁人群的结婚率为 80%，如今仅为 47%；生育率从 60% 骤降至 32%。 - **房屋拥有率**：30 岁人群拥有住房的比例从 1983 年的 50% 下降到现今的 32%。 --- ### [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=738s) 二十多岁该如何“玩这场游戏”：打破生活平衡与知识积累 面对三十岁左右甚至二十岁出头年轻人的困惑，Steven Bartlett 提问：在财富创造与保值的道路上，年轻人究竟该如何玩这场游戏，才不至于陷入打几份工却毫无资产的死循环？Raoul 明确指出，游戏的第一关永远是“收入”。没有初始现金流，任何投资与商业机会都无从谈起。然而，传统的稳定高薪工作模式正在消亡，年轻人往往必须具备创业思维、身兼数职。 谈到二十多岁的生活方式，Raoul 毫不留情地驳斥了过早追求工作与生活平衡的想法，直言“去他的平衡（Fuck it）”。他认为二十岁正是全力拼搏的时期，需要昼夜不停地工作、学习并尽可能多地试错，真正的平衡应当留给三十五岁之后。他唯一推荐的例外是大学刚毕业时去环球旅行一到两年，这能消除内心的焦虑，并建立起无可替代的宽广世界观；但旅行归来后，就必须把头埋下去苦干。至于知识积累，Raoul 提出的核心法则是在单一领域成为无人能及的专家，同时在尽可能广阔的领域成为通才。只要你在某一垂直领域拔尖——无论开出租车还是搞计算机科学——市场就会为此买单。 --- ### [14:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=897s) 如何成为专家：用五年倒推法“显化”你的未来 成为专家并非漫无目的地积累，Raoul 分享了自己践行一生的核心技巧——“显化属于你的命运（Manifesting your own destiny）”。与其做漫长虚无的三十年或四十年长远规划，不如将时间锚定在未来的五年。你必须极其具象地构想五年后自己身处何方、达成何种状态，然后从那个未来现实出发，一步步进行逆向工程拆解。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 五年逆向工程显化模型 accDescr: 展示从设定五年后的具体成功愿景倒推所需技能与行动的流程。 subgraph Vision ["第一步：锚定五年具象愿景"] V["设定5年后目标<br/>例如：拥有20名员工的窗户清洁企业"] end subgraph Reverse ["第二步：逆向拆解核心支柱"] V --> S1["业务扩展与人员管理"] V --> S2["财务核算与会计知识"] V --> S3["市场营销与演讲销售"] V --> S4["行业前沿技术与高效清洁剂"] end subgraph Action ["第三步：获取不公平优势"] S1 & S2 & S3 & S4 --> A["进入行业头部大厂打工偷师<br/>或向设备供应商深度学习"] A --> E["成为不可替代的领域专家"] end ``` Steven 以开办清洁窗户公司为例与 Raoul 展开拆解：如果目标是五年后拥有一家雇佣 20 名员工的企业，你就必须反向推导——你需要掌握团队管理、服务质检标准、会计与成本核算、用于获客的市场营销、用于商务拓展的公开演讲与销售技能，以及行业最前沿的溶剂与清洁技术。为此，年轻人甚至应当主动去该行业的成熟大公司或上游制造厂商打工，观察行业痛点与别人没做好的机会，从而为自己积累“不公平的竞争优势（Unfair advantage）”。 --- ### [17:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1036s) 从超额收入到高回报投资：为什么传统养老金失效了？ 一旦在某个垂直领域建立起专业度，且严格把控日常开支，个人就会开始产生“超额收入（Excess income）”。二十岁年轻人拥有试错的特权，可以将这笔结余资金投入到曾经梦想过的激进商业项目中，即便失败，在之前打拼中练就的商业嗅觉和运营技能也会陪伴一生。另一种途径则是投资，但传统理财顾问兜售的退休金理念已经与时代彻底脱节。 理财顾问习惯对二十五岁的年轻人说：“把钱存起来，四十五年后你就能拿到一笔养老钱。”Raoul 直言这纯属无稽之谈。当代年轻人面临的是买不起房、结不起婚、生不起孩子的迫在眉睫的现实危机，他们无法对六十五岁时才能拿到的养老金产生任何情感共鸣，他们需要在更短的周期内解决生存与阶级跃升问题。传统的低收益股票与债券已经无法弥补巨大的资产鸿沟，而技术革命与加密货币等新兴领域所孕育的高回报、甚至是“荒谬级别的高收益（stupidly higher returns）”，才是属于当代年轻人承担风险、扭转人生的魔法跳板。对话最后，Steven 话锋一转，抛出了一个更为现实的难题：对于那些终日苦干却依然毫无结余的蓝领劳动者，又该何去何从？ ### [20:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1207s) 金融游戏的规则与小额资金的翻倍机遇 当被问及普通人是否在“金融游戏”中做错了什么时，Raoul Pal 直截了当地指出：“游戏就是游戏，你必须按照它的规则去玩。”许多人误以为只有坐拥数万甚至数十万美元的本金才能在市场中立足，但 Pal 反驳了这一观点。他亲眼目睹了加密货币等新兴市场中，大量普通人将 500 美元的初始资金一路滚雪球般做到 50 万美元。虽然并非所有人都能成功，但这类机遇确实存在，且不需要你赌上身家性命或拥有巨额储蓄。关键在于保持高度专注、学会最基础的风险管理，并通过不断自学去寻找非对称回报的机会。 面对“我是不是已经错过了上车机会”的普遍焦虑，Pal 坚决表示没有。他以当下火爆的“迷因币”（Meme Coins）为例——尽管许多人会嘲笑这纯粹是一堆毫无价值的闹剧，但其本质是互联网时代的“注意力代币化”。正如 Google、Facebook 和 Twitter 的底层商业模式建立在用户注意力之上，迷因币让人们可以直接对“某种文化或笑梗能否在未来 6 周或 6 个月内病毒式扩散”进行下注。这种投资完全去除了投资银行家与精英把关人的门槛，属于高度文化驱动的超级投机领域。虽然 99% 的迷因币最终都会归零，但那些胜出的币种甚至能在半年内暴涨 1000 倍。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 资本回报率与资产类别对比 accDescr: 对比不同资产类别在年化收益率与风险特征上的分化情况。 subgraph 传统市场 SP["标普500 (S&P 500)<br/>年化 ~10%-11%<br/>难以让小本金跨越阶级"] NDX["纳斯达克 (Nasdaq)<br/>年化 ~18%<br/>科技复利效应较强"] end subgraph 高收益与投机市场 BTC["比特币 (Bitcoin)<br/>自2011年起年化 ~145%<br/>历经多次80%回撤仍具长期暴利"] MEME["迷因币 (Meme Coins)<br/>投机极致 / 注意力经济<br/>99%归零，极少数6个月1000倍"] end SP -->|提高风险偏好| NDX NDX -->|迈向非对称回报| BTC BTC -->|博取超高赔率| MEME ``` - **标普 500 指数（S&P 500）**：代表美国大盘股，长期年化复合增长率约为 10% 到 11%。对于仅有 1000 美元本金的年轻人来说，这种增长速度“需要耗费极其漫长的时间才能赚到钱”，根本无法改变人生命运。 - **纳斯达克指数（Nasdaq）**：以科技股为主，年化复合增长率约为 18%，复利增长效应开始显著显现。 - **比特币（Bitcoin）**：自 2011 年以来的年化复合增长率高达 145%，即便在此期间经历过三次幅度达 80% 的暴跌，长期持有依然带来了惊人的回报。 ### [24:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1445s) 买房陷阱与“生活方式银行” 针对 95% 的普通大众坚信“一旦有了余钱就该存钱付首付买首套房”的传统观念，Pal 明确指出：从纯粹的财富创造角度来看，买房并不是一个好策略。人们误以为房产是一项优质资产，但在现实中，除非晚年缩小居住规模或遭遇极端困境，否则极少有人会为了套现而卖掉自住房。因此，房子在本质上更像是一个“生活方式银行”（Lifestyle Bank）。生活品质的改善固然是投资奋斗的终极目标，但如果在年轻时为了过早锁定房子与所谓的安全感，而牺牲未来资本在优质资产中的增值潜力，代价往往是巨大的。 Pal 回忆道，在他年轻的时代，房价大约只有年收入的 3 倍，年轻人完全可以轻松购房并在短时间内还清贷款。但今天的现实已完全变样：房贷规模相比年轻人的收入已膨胀到极不合理的水平。现代人往往需要搭上半辈子的时间为银行打工，且前期的每月还款绝大部分都只是在偿还利息，房屋的实际产权长期处于银行手中，一旦发生意外风险，房屋就会被收回。Pal 提倡的策略是：优先将资本投入到高速增长的资产中去掌控生活的主动权，等到资产规模从 1000 美元滚到 50 万美元后，再从容地套现一部分利润存入“生活方式银行”去全款或轻松买房，以此作为对自己的犒劳，彻底摆脱断供被收房的心理阴影。 - **购房心态误区**：自住房主要承载的是心理归属感与生活方式，而非用于增值变现的高效财富工具。 - **历史与现状的悬殊**：过去房价约为收入的 3 倍，如今的负债比重导致房奴大部分时间仅在支付利息，失去了资金流动性与抗风险能力。 ### [26:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1588s) 房产杠杆的脆弱性与不公平竞争优势 面对网友“买房彻底改变了我的心态，拥有独立空间对心理健康影响深远”的评论，Pal 坦言，只要能获得稳定的长租居所并确保租金可控，租房同样能带来足够的安全感，从而让人放手去承担其他投资风险。针对英国流行的“以租养贷”（Buy-to-Let）——通过首付买入多套房产，利用租金流水滚雪球偿还房贷的投资神话，Pal 结合自身做房东的经历直言，非伦敦核心区的小体量出租房往往是一门糟糕的生意，繁琐的房屋修缮、难缠的租客管理都会耗费巨大心力。 更为危险的是这种多套房产贷款金字塔所掩盖的系统性风险。所有底层贷款的偿付能力最终都绑定在个人的工资收入之上。如果经济衰退降临，持有人失业的同时租客也失去工作导致断租，整个流动性链条会在瞬间崩塌，这正是 2008 年次贷危机中房价暴跌与失业潮双重打击的历史教训。房产看似“稳定”，仅仅是因为其流动性极差、没有像 CNBC 屏幕上那样每天实时变动的公开报价。除非你像威斯敏斯特公爵（Duke of Westminster）那样坐拥半个伦敦的无抵押地产、可以世代躺赚租金，否则普通加杠杆炒房者很难以此稳步致富。 Steven Bartlett 随后分享了他身为前投资银行家、现任其基金合伙人的哥哥给予的财富忠告：“在创造财富这件事上，你应该专注于那些极少数人才能玩、且你拥有独特优势的游戏。”因为买房是任何人都可以参与的普遍行为，注定了其平均回报率平庸无奇。想要实现真正的阶层跃迁，就必须寻找自身具备高度杠杆和“不公平优势”（Unfair Advantage）的赛道，并在其中成为不可替代的专家。 ### [30:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1833s) 不与平庸竞争：专业能力与定价权的最优解 斯蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）顺着哥哥此前的建议展开了更深层的推演：凭借独特的知识、专长、人脉和经验，去参与极少数人才能玩的游戏，才能获得最高的回报率。如果一项游戏门槛极低、每个人都能参与，就绝不要指望能拿到超额收益。最典型的反面教材就是普通人一有闲钱就跟风“买房”——除非买到一栋破谷仓，隔壁碰巧新建了一家全食超市（Whole Foods），地段瞬间变成宇宙中心，否则靠买房实现高收益的概率微乎其微。 拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）对此深表认同。他指出，如果你只是个随大流的通才，就只能在平庸的红海中与千千万万的普通人竞争。比如在一间保险公司打卡上班，不仅要面对数以千计的同温层同事，还要面对 AI 的降阶打击。想要突围，就必须把自己锻造为某个领域的专家——即使留在原行业，也可以通过拼命收听播客来精进管理技能、掌握领导力，去走别人不走的路。“做别人不做的事，本身就是一种超能力。” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 技能变现的层级跃迁模型 accDescr: 展示从通才竞争到专业降维打击再到高杠杆价值市场的演进路径 subgraph LowTier ["低杠杆红海区"] A["普通通才<br/>（保险文员/普通体力劳动）"] -->|"恶性竞争与AI替代"| B["低利润空间<br/>（人人可玩的存量游戏）"] end subgraph MidTier ["专业深化区"] B -->|"技能深造与知识跃迁"| C["垂直领域专家<br/>（管理技能/细分服务）"] end subgraph HighTier ["超额回报区"] C -->|"选择非价格敏感型客户"| D["超高价值杠杆应用<br/>（IPO故事包装/B2B大单）"] end ``` --- ### [31:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1918s) 杠杆的秘密：将技能施展在价值放大的最高点 斯蒂芬进一步提出了一个关键洞察：成为专家固然重要，但更核心的一步在于“将专业能力应用到能够产生最大化收益的市场”。他以自己的亲身经历现身说法： * **职业生涯第一阶段**：他成为了社交媒体营销专家，最初用这套技能帮助时尚品牌多卖几件裙子，获得的酬劳相对有限。 * **职业生涯第二阶段**：他意识到同样的社交媒体技能如果用在拟上市企业（Pre-IPO）身上，价值将成万倍放大。在散户受 WallStreetBets 等网络社群严重影响的新时代，一家公司讲故事的能力可以直接决定其估值是 10 亿美元还是 30 亿美元。由于结果的波动范围以“十亿”为单位计算，企业毫不犹豫地向他支付七位数（数百万美元）的咨询费。 * **估值套利的本质**：同一家公司在伦敦挂牌可能只值 100 万，放在美国资本市场就能估值 400 万。个人技能亦是同理，必须寻找溢价最高的舞台。 两人随后探讨了“擦玻璃工”的跃迁之路：当他招募了 20 名员工，每天要焦头烂额地处理员工请假、客户投诉等管理琐事时，真正聪明的一步不是继续扩招，而是“向上走入知识曲线”——开设培训课程，教别人如何建立擦窗生意、摆脱打工死循环（Rat Race）。销售培训课程不仅摆脱了体力束缚，利润也远比亲自洗玻璃丰厚得多。 --- ### [34:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=2064s) 选准买家与顺应大势：超级富豪市场与长期世俗趋势 拉乌尔与斯蒂芬深入剖析了两种完全不同的商业路径：要么做大众快消品（如巧克力棒），必须依赖极其庞大的规模与销量，执行难度极高；要么彻底转向服务“特定且极具购买力”的小众人群。 以房地产投机为例： * **普通炒房客**：四处淘便宜公寓，费心装修后出租赚取微薄现金流，或者翻新两居室公寓转手。市场上同质化房源成千上万，利润空间被极度压缩。 * **超级豪宅玩家**：以 1000 万美元购入顶级地产，打造成极致奢华的项目，再以 5000 万美元直接转卖给亿万富翁。这类超级富豪对价格完全不敏感，甚至“越贵越想要”，买家圈子高度重合且资金无上限。 斯蒂芬总结道，这就像在普利茅斯（Plymouth）的一处平房给多萝西（Dorothy）老太太擦玻璃，还是给谷歌（Google）总部擦玻璃的区别——两者运用的是完全相同的基础技能，但服务谷歌只需要搞定一张超级大单，就能拿到长期稳定的天价回报。 拉乌尔结合好友汤姆·比柳（Tom Bilyeu）创立 Quest Nutrition 的案例，强调了踩准“长期世俗趋势”（Secular Trend）的重要性。汤姆敏锐地捕捉到了生酮饮食和高蛋白食品兴起的大势，针对“注重健康又想吃甜食”这一痛点研发代餐棒，乘势建立起商业帝国。 * **世俗趋势的威力**：斯蒂芬当年抓住了 2010 年社交媒体全面爆发的超级加速期；而在如今 AI 与数字化深度交织的时代，顺应一条庞大、意义深远且已被验证的长期趋势，是将技能最大化变现的关键前提。 --- ### [38:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=2292s) 数字化反噬与反向红利：双极化投资思维 谈到未来的确定性大趋势，拉乌尔列举了两个值得重点关注的全新拐点： 1. **健康饮食与代谢革命**：受减肥神药司美格鲁肽（Ozempic）及膳食意识提升的影响，美国肥胖率在近 50 年来首次出现下降。这预示着健康餐饮与生活方式产业即将迎来巨大的爆发式机遇。 2. **数字社区与自然疗愈的两极分化**：线上 AI 虚拟社区将变得愈发重要；但与此同时，像拉乌尔这样每天要在 Zoom 视频会议前坐上 12 个小时的人，内心最渴望、觉得最无价的反而是“大自然与真实体验”。对于热爱户外的人来说，开一家户外向导公司不仅永远不会被机器人抢走饭碗，还能巧妙借用无人机跟拍或侦测动物，享受科技带来的赋能。 斯蒂芬深有感触地指出，真正伟大的趋势在萌芽期往往伴随着强烈的“逆向直觉”（Contrarian），身边的人甚至会嘲笑你是个疯子。他透露自己的投资基金目前重点押注两个看似截然相反的极端：**一边是 AI 与超级自动化，另一边则是彻底反技术的纯粹实体体验**。他以阿姆斯特丹一家爆火的咖啡馆为例——那里严禁使用任何智能手机，年轻人每周聚集在一起只是看书、打毛线织毛衣。这种反思科技侵蚀的逆流，正是两位顶尖 AI 投资领域的亿万富翁私下对他反复强调的黄金机会。 ### [40:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=2402s) AI 时代的对立面：娱乐、社群与逃离数字世界的渴望 斯蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）率先分享了一位深谙加密货币与迷幻药投资的顶尖投资人给予他的警示：当前如果还能投 AI 就投 AI；如果投不进 AI，就必须重注“娱乐与社群”。在 AI 驱动的未来，社会生产力将被推向极致，甚至可能走向由政府直接全民发钱的全民基本收入（UBI）模式。届时，人类将拥有前所未有的庞大闲暇时间，人们必须找到打发时间的方式，这正是当下富豪们争相竞购足球俱乐部与顶级体育特许经营权的底层逻辑——体育既是娱乐，也是最极致的社群凝聚器。 拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）对此深表认同，并指出任何强大技术浪潮都会引发同等且反向的“反作用力”。他分享了自己刚刚结束的赞比亚之旅：他在一辆经过越野改装的丰田陆地巡洋舰（Toyota Land Cruiser）车顶支起帐篷，在非洲完全的原生态荒野中生活了整整三周。那种状态让脑海中所有的网络杂音、政治争吵和日常焦虑烟消云散，生活退化到了最纯粹的当下——“清晨醒来，谁去煮咖啡，谁去生火”。他在定居的开曼群岛也观察到了同样的社会反弹：2022 年全球通胀肆虐、裁员频发，按传统经济学，非必需消费支出理应缩水，但开曼的旅游季却创下历史新高。这表明度假与真实体验不再是可有可无的弹性消费，而是人们在居家办公（WFH）的孤独感中产生的刚性心理抗体。 当传统的终身雇佣制和养老保障彻底瓦解，人们开始在全球网络中寻找同温层。拉乌尔引用了瓦拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑（Balaji Srinivasan）提出的“网络国家”（The Network State）概念，指出互联网打破了物理边界，让特定兴趣社群迅速集结。以社交网络上规模最大的加密货币社群为例，参与者在现实中常常被 90% 的普通朋友视作异类，这种“被孤立感”反而促使他们在网络空间高频抱团，共同抵御现实职场的迷茫并寻找新答案。 - **赞比亚荒野体验**：3 周脱网自驾，依靠车顶帐篷露营，通过极端物理环境完成精神重置。 - **开曼群岛经济反常现象**：2022 年全球高通胀与经济阵痛期，当地旅游业反而刷新历史纪录，度假已演变为“抗抑郁式刚需”。 - **加密社群的心理动因**：由于现实朋友无法理解区块链的颠覆性，投资群体通过社交媒体形成类似网络国家的紧密认同。 --- ### [43:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=2615s) 从“一对多”到“一对一”：数字分身、信任溢价与 Character.ai 的情感爆发 传媒与交互的形态正在被 AI 全面重塑。拉乌尔指出，历史上所有的传播本质上都是从集市广场或马拉喀什露天集市演变而来的“一对多”讲故事模式，如今的播客亦是如此。然而未来的交互将全面转向“一对一”。他透露自己正在开发一个虚拟的“拉乌尔视频机器人”（Raoul bot），该模型喂养了他所有的书籍、YouTube 视频、写作文章与推文，能够像真人一样与用户进行一对一的专属深度对谈。 面对斯蒂芬的疑问——“既然用户能向汇集了史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）、埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）等人类顶尖商业领袖知识的通用大模型提问，为何还会想要一个斯蒂芬分身？”拉乌尔给出的核心答案是“信任”（Trust）。知识本身正在泛滥贬值，唯有人与人之间建立的情感纽带与信誉无可替代。不过，拉乌尔也坦言，这种真人信任红利也许在未来十年内也会被技术迭代重构。 更震撼的颠覆早已在年长一代的视线之外爆发。拉乌尔以 Character.ai 为例，展示了年轻一代如何与虚拟角色建立真实的情感依恋。平台上某些霸凌少年、动漫角色甚至拥有 1.5 亿至 4.5 亿次的惊人对话量。当平台微调模型后，Reddit 社区（`r/CharacterAI`）随即爆发了抗议狂潮，无数年轻人哭诉“它不再像以前那样爱我了”。拉乌尔激动地警告说：“这完全就是当年 TikTok 崛起的翻版！”主流社会还在把注意力放在 ChatGPT 的生产力工具属性上，而真正以指数级狂飙突进的，却是 AI 在填补人类——尤其是青少年群体——极端情感孤独方面的惊人市场。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI时代交互模式与用户粘性演变 accDescr: 展示从传统的单向一对多传播，演进为基于信任的数字分身与基于情感依恋的角色AI对话体系。 subgraph OLD["传统交互范式"] A["一对多传播<br/>（集市广场 / 传统播客）"] end subgraph NEW["AI 交互演变"] B["一对一数字分身<br/>（基于个人数据的 Raoul/Steven Bot）"] C["情感型伴侣 AI<br/>（Character.ai 角色模型）"] end subgraph DRIVERS["底层驱动要素"] D["人类信任与个人 IP 溢价"] E["对抗现代社会孤独与心理寄托"] end A --> B A --> C B --- D C --- E ``` --- ### [47:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=2844s) 知识归零与物种分化：指数级平方的技术奇点 谈及 AI 的破坏力，拉乌尔毫不犹豫地将其定性为“人类有史以来最伟大的单项技术创新”，其影响跨度甚至超越了原子能的裂变。现代经济体系完全建立在知识的稀缺性（或资本的稀缺性）之上，律师等专业人士之所以能赚取高额报酬，完全取决于知识获取的门槛。而生成式 AI 的诞生创造了“无限的知识”，直接将知识的边际价值砸到了零——“知识现在变得像自来水一样廉价”。这一转变将从底层摧毁并重写既有的经济分配机制与社会运转逻辑。 更深远的影响在于人类物种本身的演化路径。拉乌尔预言，人类社会将像 5 万到 10 万年前智人与尼安德特人共存那样，分化为两条截然相反的演化路径并最终演变为两个不同物种： 1. **拥抱并融入机器的群体**：通过植入 Neuralink 脑机接口、佩戴智能显卡设备，将机器的算力与智力彻底融为一体，进化为具备全知视角的“超级生物”。 2. **彻底拒绝机器的群体**：坚守纯自然生理状态，排斥人机共生，最终面临在竞争中被边缘化甚至淘汰的命运。 拉乌尔强调，人类之所以无法理解这一奇点，是因为人类的大脑受制于“线性思维”，习惯将时间视为匀速流动的常量；而 AI 正在经历“指数级的平方”发展（Exponential Squared）。AI 变得越强大，就越能反哺自身算法的训练，自主解决芯片算力、能源消耗和模型架构优化的瓶颈。面对 OpenAI 等机构每三个月就彻底颠覆一次行业格局的技术进化速度，人类即将面对一个能以超指数速度自我迭代的超级智能体。 - **知识价值归零**：知识由高价值稀缺品转变为无限供应的基础设施，传统依靠信息差获得高薪的脑力职业结构面临重构。 - **人类分化为新物种**：脑机接口（Neuralink）与人机结合将创造认知维度碾压传统生物人的“超级生物”（Super Creature）。 - **自我迭代的指数平方效应**：AI 不仅自身呈指数演进，还在通过解决自身的能源与算力约束加速进化，导致创新周期压缩至每季度一次剧变。 ### [50:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3050s) 无法看透的六个月：知识稀缺性的彻底终结 Raoul Pal 指出，不论是视频模型、语音模型，还是底层的通用大模型，它们目前的迭代速度正在直接“摧毁”（nuking）试图在垂直领域创业的初创公司。即便是体量巨大的跨国制药企业，在试图拥抱 AI 时也完全无法确立长期发展战略（plant a flag），因为技术的进化周期让所有人连未来六个月的发展都看不清楚，人类正在步入一个完全“不可理解”的世界。 Steven Bartlett 对此深有感触，并希望将“知识稀缺性瓦解”这一宏大概念具象化到日常生活中。人们习惯性地认为律师等白领阶层依赖知识，但实际上日常生活里的每一个环节都建立在对信息的处理上：Steven 回顾自己的一天，早晨醒来，旗下公司的 CEO 会向他请示几个简单的商业决策；随后他乘车前往录影棚，而驾驶本身就是一种纯粹的基于视觉和经验的信息处理过程。全球就业人数最多的职业群体之一就是司机，但现在在旧金山，Waymo 自动驾驶汽车已经在街头载客，车里根本没有人类司机；到达演播室后，他们在录制播客分享知识；随后他还要赶往舞台上发表演讲。整个现代社会运转的核心逻辑，竟然全都建立在即将被机器低成本接管的“知识”之上。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Knowledge Scarcity Collapse accDescr: 展现从传统知识型工作向AI与自动化时代全面转型的结构图 subgraph Traditional["传统知识型社会架构"] A["专业白领决策 (商业/法律)"] B["基础服务与驾驶 (视觉与环境认知)"] C["内容产出与演讲 (信息提炼与传播)"] end subgraph Automation["AI 与自动化颠覆"] D["大语言与智能体模型"] E["自动驾驶系统 (如 Waymo)"] F["全自动化生成式应用"] end subgraph Outcome["劳动力市场冲击"] G["知识与技能稀缺性被打破"] H["服务与制造行业无需人类介入"] end A --> D B --> E C --> F D --> G E --> H F --> G ``` ### [52:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3140s) 曼哈顿街头的顿悟：服务与制造不再需要人类 Raoul 提到，他与同事 Julian Bethell 经常在穿行于伦敦或各大城市时玩一个观察游戏：看向车窗外，试着找出哪一项工作会在未来免于被机器人或 AI 替代。Raoul 回忆起自己坐在曼哈顿的一辆 Uber 上百无聊赖地从上城区开往下城区，放眼望去震撼地发现，路上几乎没有任何一辆车是普通居民开去通勤的私人用车——整条街上全是专业司机：Uber、加长礼宾车（limo）、黄色出租车、快递货车以及物流卡车。而这些岗位，在技术成熟后都将“彻底消失”（All gone）。 更为残酷的现实正在服务经济与制造业中蔓延。亚马逊目前雇用的机器人数量已经超过了人类员工。机器人可以 7 天 24 小时无休止地连轴转，不请假、不抱怨、更不会要求加薪，并且它们的购置与运行成本每年都在下降。面对如此降本增效的诱惑，没有任何商业组织能够拒绝。 - 街道现实观察：曼哈顿交通流量绝大部分由出租车、网约车、货运与快递等职业司机占据，直接暴露于自动驾驶技术的替代风险之下。 - 自动化经济学：机器人具备 24/7 全天候运转能力，零工伤、零加薪需求，且成本遵循摩尔定律逐年下降，促使传统服务业与制造业彻底去人力化。 ### [53:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3214s) 面对淘汰的三种人类反应：否认、麻木还是参与？ 面对可能波及数百万甚至数亿普通人的技术震荡，Steven 提到了大众心理的分化。虽然大量听众听到这些预测时会感到恐慌，但 Steven 本人更倾向于寻找机会。他认为在接受颠覆性信息时，人类通常会分化为三种不同心态： 1. **认知失调与排斥（Cognitive Dissonance）**：认为这是危言耸听，大喊“你们说得全错，这根本不可能发生”来逃避现实； 2. **保持开放但陷入麻木（Open-minded / Paralyzed）**：意识到变局降临，但无所适从、陷入瘫痪； 3. **前倾拥抱与下注（Leaning in）**：全力探寻隐藏在剧烈变革之中的新机会。 Raoul 强调，当某种力量注定要终结你现有的生活方式时，反抗或漠视都无济于事，唯一的出路就是投资它、顺应它。判断一个大趋势是否具备持久生命力，最关键的信号在于它是否形成了“文化浪潮”（Culture）。正如 Raoul 在 1980 年代踏入金融行业时，伴随着电影《华尔街》中的戈登·盖柯（Gordon Gekko）、纪实著作《门口的野蛮人》（Barbarians at the Gate）等流行符号，金融从单纯的工作演化为整个社会追逐的文化图腾；后来的硅谷软件革命、加密货币的暴富神话，亦或是如今人人都在探讨的 AI，都展现了这种“不可逆”的文化渗透力。 ### [56:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3364s) 智能体 AI 终结软件创业：三分钟克隆一切 Raoul 指出，距离真正具备自主行动能力的“智能体 AI”（Agentic AI）全面铺开可能只有短短六个月。所谓的智能体 AI，就如同在自由职业众包平台 Fiverr 上雇佣了一整支随叫随到的专家团队。以往普通人需要分别雇佣设计师、前端程序员、文案策划和营销专家来搭建在线业务，而在未来半年到一年内，智能体 AI 能够在几分钟内自主完成网站设计、前后端代码编写、域名注册、品牌调性确认、营销投放以及邮件列表配置的全套流程。 这种效率跃迁带来了一个颠覆性的命题：“AI 正在吞噬软件”（AI is going to eat software）。Raoul 举例说明这种残酷的竞争生态：假设 Steven 耗费心血打造了一个界面惊艳、带有 3D 体验和智能推荐的新型营养补充剂网站；Raoul 看到后，只需向自己的 AI 智能体下达指令：“我很喜欢 Steven 的网站，你能帮我做一个体验更好、功能更强的版本吗？另外我感觉印地语市场很有潜力，顺便帮我做个印地语版。”AI 甚至会反过来纠正策略：“印地语市场竞争已十分激烈，数据显示印度尼西亚市场尚处于蓝海，我建议部署印尼版本。”从指令发出到竞品落地，前后不过三分钟。传统意义上的软件壁垒和初创企业护城河在一夜之间荡然无存。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Agentic AI Workflow accDescr: 智能体AI在极短时间内完成全套软件开发与部署的示意图 A["用户提出业务构想"] --> B["Agentic AI 智能体编排"] subgraph Execution["三分钟自动完成"] B --> C["UI设计与前后端代码"] B --> D["域名注册与云端部署"] B --> E["市场数据洞察与本土化建议"] B --> F["品牌搭建与自动化邮件营销"] end Execution --> G["完整上线的全功能商业平台"] ``` ### [57:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3460s) 逃离数字内卷：生态旅游 vs 科技垄断下的散户困境 面对数字红利的瓦解，Steven 提出了一个深刻的猜想：这是否意味着自互联网泡沫以来建立的“数字机遇”（内容创作者、线上电商、甚至量化股票交易员）正走向终局？如果数字领域的价值最终全额沉淀给底层模型和巨头科技公司，那么当下最聪明的决策，或许反而是去拉丁美洲丛林里当向导，或者在喜马拉雅山脉开发高端生态徒步营地——去从事那些 AI 无法触碰的、纯粹线下的具身体验。 Raoul 承认线下小众高端体验具备极高的人均消费价值（Quality Attention），因为在数字化信息过剩的时代，真实的线下注意力才是最上游的资源。然而这种模式的致命弱点在于“不可扩展性”（Not Scalable）：它涉及到极其繁复的实体运营与人员管理，永远无法实现如软件那般的指数级扩张。 当 Steven 追问普通投资者该如何通过资本市场分享 AI 的巨大红利（例如购买微软、Meta 或谷歌的股票）时，Raoul 揭露了现代金融体系对普通人残酷的结构性不公： - **收益倍数封顶**：像微软这样体量已达数万亿美元的巨头，即便在 AI 驱动下市值飙升至 10 万亿到 15 万亿美元，普通投资人也只能获得 3 到 5 倍的收益（5x）。 - **历史级技术与平庸回报的错配**：面对人类历史上最波澜壮阔的技术革命，普通大众通过二级市场最终只能换来 5 倍回报，而绝大部分百倍、千倍的超额利润（Supernormal Returns）早早被上游的风投机构（VC）和初创公司创始人瓜分殆尽。 - **不得不参与的对冲**：整个系统从规则上就是不利于普通人的。普通人的工作正在被 AI 逐步替代，但在资本分配上又被剥夺了早期暴富的入场券。Raoul 给出的现实建议是：在传统股票市场中，放弃其他一切平庸资产，坚定地把资金重仓压在核心科技股上，“哪怕这意味着你在投资促使自己失业的罪魁祸首”，至少唯有如此，才能在技术巨浪的洗劫中分得一杯高质量投资回报的羹。 ### [01:00:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3645s) 加密货币本质：一种颠覆旧账本的新型数据库 在探讨如何应对未来的经济重塑时，Raoul Pal 再次将焦点转向加密货币。在他看来，抛开市场上各种令人眼花缭乱的概念与投机炒作，加密货币归根结底只是一项底层技术——它本质上是一个“比人类历史上任何数据库都更先进的数据库”。在传统世界里，记录数据依靠的是分散且封闭的账本或电子表格。比如两个人打赌，往往需要拿纸笔写下，或者记录在各自的表格中，并拉来第三个人作为见证人证明事实与结果。人类社会几乎所有的运转逻辑——无论是银行体系、商业合同还是法律事务——全部建立在这种依赖中间人担保的账本系统之上。 为了直观地剖析现有体系的运作方式，Steven 随手拿过录播室里的一个手提箱当作道具，将其比作中心化的传统银行，而箱子里的物件代表存入的资金。Raoul 借此回顾了货币媒介的演进：在古老的物理时代，人们持有黄金并将其锁在保险箱或埋入地下，黄金完全属于自己，但面临被他人或海盗暴力抢夺的风险。随着现代银行业的诞生，人们将黄金存入金库，换取一张写着存款数额的纸质凭证（纸币或存单）。此时，整个体系的安全感完全寄托在“银行一定会如约兑付金币”的单向信任之上，也就是大众常说的“像银行一样稳妥（Safe as a bank）”。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 传统中心化银行业务与区块链分布式账本对比 accDescr: 对比传统银行部分准备金带来的挤兑风险与区块链多节点共识机制下的确定性 subgraph Traditional["传统银行业（中介信用模式）"] A["储户存入底层抵押资产"] --> B["银行（中心化中介）"] B --> C["借据 / 纸质凭证（存款人沦为无担保债权人）"] B --> D["部分准备金借贷 / 30倍再抵押杠杆"] D -. 遭遇挤兑 / 抵押物暴跌.-> E["流动性枯竭（资产化为乌有）"] end subgraph Blockchain["区块链网络（分布式共识模式）"] F["交易发起 / 智能合约指令"] --> G["数以万计去中心化节点"] G --> H["拜占庭容错与共识机制验证"] H --> I["不可篡改的链上账本 / 真实机器确认所有权"] end ``` ### [01:02:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3755s) 部分准备金与 30 倍杠杆：纸片背后的现代金融幻觉 Raoul 毫不留情地揭开了传统银行业“镜花水月”的现实机制——部分准备金制度（Fractional Reserve Banking）。当客户把资产存进手提箱的那一瞬间，银行转手就把大部分资金贷给了别人。换言之，金库里其实已经空了。客户不再真正“拥有”自己的钱，而是变成了银行的无担保债权人，手里仅握有一张法律欠条。虽然政府对小额存款提供保护（例如 10 万欧元或英镑以内的存款保障计划），但超出该门槛的部分，一旦银行破产，储户就会血本无归。Steven 忍不住拿着手中的纸条追问：“那我手上的这张纸呢？”Raoul 直截了当地回应：“它一文不值，你实际上什么也不拥有（Means fuck all. You don't own anything）。” 更严峻的问题在于整个金融系统底层惊人的杠杆率。这种以单一底层资产不断嵌套拆借的模式，宛如一场庞氏骗局：用一套房的现金流撬动第二套、第三套，一旦底层抵押品（Collateral）被抽走，连锁反应便瞬间爆发。Raoul 指出，2008 年金融危机与 2012 年欧洲债务危机正是这一死穴的集中体现： - **抵押品重复质押**：在 2008 年危机期间，被视为全球最安全资产的美国国债，其再抵押杠杆率甚至高达 30 倍。这意味着同一份国债资产被 30 个不同的人自认为属于自己。 - **凭空创造的凭证**：银行手提箱里实际上只有一枚硬币，却给 30 个人分别开出了代表整枚硬币所有权的纸条。一旦原始贷款人撤回底层资产，其余 29 个人就会惊恐地发现，他们所主张的财富根本不存在。 - **历史周期的重演**：从 2012 年欧债危机中人们发现银行里根本没钱，到硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）的骤然倒闭，皆暴露了中心化信用中介内在的脆弱性。 ### [01:05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3942s) 拜占庭将军问题与“安全真实机器”的诞生 传统记账逻辑可追溯至 14 至 15 世纪文艺复兴时期的复式记账法（Dual-entry Bookkeeping）。该系统要求交易双方记录借贷，并往往依赖第三方中介（公证人、银行、审计事务所）来证明真实性。然而，这引发了计算机科学与数学史上长期无法攻克的哲学与计算难题——**拜占庭将军问题（Byzantine Generals Problem）**：分隔两地的将军如何穿过充满敌意的防线达成协同进攻？派遣的信使可能会叛变、篡改军情，而接收方根本无法核实指令的真伪。现实社会中的第三方中介同样不可盲信，公证人可能受贿，四大会计师事务所审计可能造假，连信誉卓著的商业银行也可能发生信用暴雷。 比特币与区块链技术的横空出世，以数学算法彻底终结了这个困局。Steven 扔掉代表银行存款的废纸，拾起地上一根道具铁链作为区块链的象征。Raoul 解释道，区块链抛弃了单一中介，通过分布式账本将记账权分散给全球成千上万、甚至数以百万计的计算节点： - **分布式共识机制（Consensus Mechanism）**：所有节点对全网状态进行快速比对与快照核对，不需要人工守在屏幕前确认，而是由计算机依据统一算法达成一致。若有任何节点提交虚假数据，整组区块会直接被全网识别并拒绝。 - **不可篡改的真理机器**：区块链构建起一个去中心化的“安全真实机器（Security Truth Machine）”。持有的比特币既可以直接以类似黄金的不记名资产（Bearer Asset）形式自托管，也可以交由机构托管，但所有权在数学上完全可公开验证且不可篡改（Immutable），无需任何主权或权威中介背书。 ### [01:09:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=4174s) 从比特币到以太坊：智能合约如何重构社会契约 区块链的演进并未止步于比特币代表的价值转移。Raoul 进一步阐释，比特币时代实现了点对点的纯货币转账（“A 将 1 枚比特币转移给 B”）；而以太坊（Ethereum）带来的**智能合约（Smart Contracts）**，则让可编程逻辑注入了链上账本。交易双方可以设定复杂的先决条件，例如“只要伦敦连续 13 天出太阳并且特定外部事件被触发，系统就自动结算向 Raoul 发送 1 枚比特币”。无需法官、公证人或律师的介入，代码与去中心化计算机群会自动核验并强制执行清算。 这种转变的颠覆性在于，人类文明的本质架构实际上全是由“契约”构成的： - **微观行为**：日常去录播室录制节目、买一张电影票或火车票、在商店购物，全都是由口头或书面协议约束的契约关系。 - **宏观社会构架**：货币本身是一份集体信任的契约，政府是公民与统治系统之间的社会契约，宗教是对信仰与行为准则的神圣契约。 - **社会秩序的重构**：整个人类社会赖以维系与协作的底层规则，本质上就是不断建立并履行的社会契约。当区块链让契约能够摆脱人为贪婪、欺诈与中介抽成，实现去信任化（Trustless）的自动化执行时，它所重塑的将不仅是金融，而是人类社会构建秩序的根本方式。 ### [01:10:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=4248s) 数字稀缺性与“空中数据库”：区块链作为唯一的真相之源 区块链网络的强大之处在于，人们可以开始将各种资产迁移到链上。最初出现在区块链上的尝试是艺术品，也就是非同质化代币（NFT）。虽然这在初期具有实验性质，但它揭示了一个根本性的变革：未来的泰勒·斯威夫特（Taylor Swift）演唱会门票、产权凭证都可以记录在链上。在以往的数字化进程中，边际复制成本几乎为零，一切纯数字事物最终都会走向贬值；然而，区块链第一次在数字世界中创造了“数字稀缺性”（Digital Scarcity）。某种资产一经设定就无法被复制或无限增发，而稀缺性正是人类赋予事物价值的根基所在。正如过去律师因专业知识的稀缺而收入高昂，但在 AI 普及的时代，纯粹的知识复制将不再稀缺，真正的数字唯一性反而变得无可替代。 为了让听众更容易理解，主持人史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）将区块链形象地比喻为一个“悬在空中的公共数据库”——每台接入网络的计算机都在后台自动比对和验证每一笔交易与合约的历史记录，人们不再需要政府、银行或中介机构在中间充当仲裁者。拉乌尔·帕尔对此高度认同，并进一步将其精炼为“真相之源”（Source of Truth）。在当今互联网上，人们无法确信屏幕另一端是谁、谁欠谁什么款项；而区块链提供了一个透明、无需信任任何单一个体（Trustless）、且全人类均可查验的底层共识系统。拉乌尔强调，这项底层技术的本质从来不仅仅关乎金钱，而是关于如何在数字化时代确立真相、创造价值并实现价值的无缝交换。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 区块链作为真相之源的运转逻辑 accDescr: 展示从数字资产与稀缺性，经由分布式节点验证，最终沉淀为去信任化的真相之源的过程。 subgraph S1["资产与数字稀缺性"] A["现实/数字资产 (门票/艺术品/货币)"] B["智能合约设定上限 (如BTC 2100万枚)"] end subgraph S2["分布式共识网络 (空中数据库)"] C["全球互联计算机节点"] D["基于历史账本的自动化验证"] end subgraph S3["核心价值交付"] E["去信任化的唯一事实 (真相之源)"] F["无需中介的价值自由转移"] end A --> B B --> C C --> D D --> E E --> F ``` ### [01:14:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=4462s) 激励机制与全民门槛：全球均质资产的革命 对比人类历史上的重大技术基础设施，互联网早期属于公共基础设施，宽带网络则主要由私营部门举债建设，许多早期参与者与基建商最终血本无归，利润全被亚马逊等少数巨头掠去，普通大众根本无法分享基建本身的红利。区块链则建立了一套巧妙的行为经济学激励机制：任何参与维护网络安全、验证交易的矿工与节点，都会获得链上原生稀缺资产（如比特币）作为代币奖励。普通投资者购买并持有这些代币，实际上就是在投资这一全球底层清结算网络的未来应用前景。 更关键的代际差异在于投资门槛。在当前爆发的人工智能革命中，99% 的普通公众根本无法投资顶级非上市 AI 初创企业，因为传统金融体系设有严苛的“合格投资者”认证与内幕圈子；现实世界中的顶级资产（如曼哈顿价值 5000 万美元的高端豪宅）也只有极少数富豪才能翻新倒手赚取暴利。区块链资产却彻底打破了这一阶级壁垒： - **百分百可分割性（Fractionalization）**：投资者无需整颗买下数万美元一枚的比特币，完全可以只拿出每期薪水中的 10% 购买其微小碎片。 - **全球均质资产（Globally Homogeneous Asset）**：比特币是人类历史上唯一在尼日利亚、巴西、伦敦、硅谷、印度或巴布亚新几内亚完全均质、规则平等的资产，没有任何地缘溢价或歧视。 - **绕过既得利益阶层**：它直接穿透了传统银行清算与国际券商通道的重重壁垒，让第三世界国家的普通人能与硅谷风投精英坐在同一张起跑线上。 拉乌尔感慨道，这是一个将“颠覆货币体系并构建全新互联网”这种看似荒谬绝伦的创业构想，通过代币激励机制完成自我冷启动（Bootstrap）的奇迹。随着参与投资者增多，网络市值飙升，进而吸引更多算力保障安全，激发出更多上层应用，形成了一个自我强化的飞轮。 ### [01:17:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=4676s) 从链上游戏到千亿美元资产：正在发生的范式转移 史蒂文分享了自己创办 Web3 基础设施公司 Thirdweb（已融资约 3000 万美元）的实际经历。他观察到，在过去一年中 Web3 游戏正在发生爆发式增长。在传统的《FIFA》或老牌网游《符文工房》（RuneScape）中，玩家持有的梅西球员卡或珍稀武器完全被锁定在游戏厂商的中心化服务器内；而一旦引入区块链，装备和卡牌被制成以太坊链上资产，玩家即便退出游戏，也可以在外部去中心化市场中自由交易。这不仅为游戏工作室开辟了全新的次级市场经济体系，也让玩家投入的时间与虚拟资产真正具备了流动性与财产权。此外，传统电子签名巨头 DocuSign 实际上早已将合同哈希值记录在区块链上以防止篡改，这项技术对现实社会的渗透早已悄然发生。 拉乌尔结合自己的资管业务表达了极其宏大的预期。他旗下的“指数时代资产管理公司”（Exponential Age Asset Management）专门通过投资专注于加密领域的对冲基金，来捕捉这一资产类别从当下的 2 万亿美元扩张至 2032 至 2034 年间 100 万亿美元的历史性浪潮： - **财富创造速度的量级跨越**：标普 500 指数（S&P 500）走过整整 100 年才积累出的财富体量，加密网络预计将在短短 20 年内实现其两倍以上的增量。 - **现实产业资本的涌入**：他在瑞士与一位家族办公室投资者会面时得知，这位主管全球软商品（如可可、白糖等大宗商品）交易的高管，同样在密切关注这一系统对全球贸易与资产定价的深层重构。 ### [01:20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=4848s) 真实世界的落地：大宗商品交易与以太坊革命 拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）分享了一个令人震撼的业内见闻：他曾与一位从事玉米等农产品大宗商品贸易的专业人士交谈，当他建议对方“你们应该考虑在区块链上开发”时，对方却坦言，其实早在2020年，所有的顶级大宗商品贸易巨头就已经全部将底层架构搭建在以太坊（Ethereum）上了。在传统农产品大宗商品行业中，充斥着大量的海运发货、信用证（Letters of Credit）流转以及复杂的货物品质验收合同，而且往往需要与营商环境严峻、充满“商业恶鲨”的国家打交道。通过以太坊智能合约，每一笔发货合同、品质认证和信用证都实现了链上自动化，形成了一个不可篡改的可验证真相源（Verifiable source of truth），彻底颠覆了整个行业，但外界公众对此却几乎一无所知。 史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）随即补充道，自己也是以太坊的坚定持有者，长期囤币且绝不减仓，甚至因此被自己的亲哥哥吐槽“对资产投入了过多的个人情绪”。史蒂文借此发问：普通人持有以太币，究竟如何能从游戏开发、企业系统等大规模部署在以太坊生态中直接获利？拉乌尔用了一个极为生动的类比：当年 Facebook 创立并爆发式增长时，普通人根本拿不到早期股份，所有的暴利都被顶层风投机构（VC）瓜分殆尽；当它最终登陆公开股票市场时，散户还要面对复杂的经纪账户开户与资格审批。但在加密世界中，以太坊就像一家去中心化的全球公共科技网络，只要你在手机上买入一枚以太坊代币，随着以太坊生态网络规模的扩张和应用场景的激增，底层代币的价值就会直接水涨船高。每个人都能以极其平等的姿态，仅仅依靠一部智能手机，便毫无门槛地参与到这场时代级技术颠覆的红利之中。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Traditional vs Blockchain Commodity Settlement accDescr: Comparison between legacy trade settlement friction and frictionless on-chain Ethereum verification. subgraph Legacy["传统大宗商品贸易模式"] L1["买卖双方 / 跨国贸易商"] --> L2["纸质信用证与质检报告"] L2 --> L3["面临违约与信任摩擦（商业恶鲨/高风险国家）"] end subgraph OnChain["以太坊智能合约驱动模式"] C1["货物装运与海运合同"] --> C2["以太坊链上智能合约执行"] C2 --> C3["不可篡改的链上真相源 / 自动清算"] C3 --> C4["以太坊网络使用需求提升 -> ETH 价值沉淀"] end ``` --- ### [01:23:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=4981s) 加密投资实操入门：从便捷交易所到冷钱包自托管 针对“普通人到底该如何迈出第一步”的实操问题，拉乌尔建议新手不必把流程复杂化。最简单的起手方式就是选择知名且信誉良好的合规加密平台（如 Coinbase、Kraken、Crypto.com、Gemini），甚至可以直接使用集成加密货币购买功能的数字银行、Revolut 或 PayPal。核心原则是“选择阻力最小的入金渠道（Easiest on-ramp）直接开始”。拉乌尔强调，新手必须亲身体验资产暴涨暴跌的心理洗礼——尤其是当资产断崖式暴跌时，那种令人窒息的心态崩盘是每一个成熟投资者必须经历的心理修行；只要选对经过时间验证的优质核心资产，拉长时间维度看，其长期向上的概率极大。 随着持仓规模扩大，投资者自然会意识到现代银行系统的弊端：在传统银行里，提现超过1万英镑往往受限重重，而且账户资产随时面临被政府或金融机构冻结的风险。此时，硬件冷钱包（如 Ledger）就成为了个人财务主权的真正载体。拉乌尔用电子邮箱形象地解释了钱包地址的运作原理： - **公钥地址**如同你的邮箱地址，任何人都可以向其投递邮件或转入资产； - **私钥/助记词（Seed Phrase）**则是私人阅读与提取邮件的专属密码，必须由本人绝对掌控。 史蒂文分享了自己真实的冷钱包管理方式：他将存有数千枚以太坊的 Ledger 设备安全保管，而设备背后的24个助记词被分散抄写在纸片上，藏匿于不同国家的物理安全地点。这意味着无论未来身处何方、遭遇何种政治或法律风险，都无人能剥夺他的个人资产。拉乌尔更以历史上美国强制没收黄金以及二战时期欧洲犹太人艰难跨国转移财富的惨痛历史作对比，指出加密资产彻底改写了人类财富跨国转移的规则——无需携带实物金条和钻石，只要在大脑中记住一串助记词，便能完好无损地跨越任何边境。 --- ### [01:26:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5202s) 资产配置的艺术：从比特币、以太坊到 Solana 与 Sui 的代币轮动逻辑 面对史蒂文“到底应该投资哪一个币种”的提问，拉乌尔展现了他作为拥有30年宏观投资经验专家的核心底牌——**资产配置（Asset Allocation）**。史蒂文坦承自己此前只投资以太坊，因为他联合创立的 Web3 开发者平台 Thirdweb 让他直观看到绝大部分开发者和二层网络（Layer 2）都在以太坊上构建；但拉乌尔给出了一个更为结构化、层层递进的实战投资框架： 1. **第一步（大众基石）：定投比特币（Bitcoin）** 对于绝大多数普通观众而言，最稳妥的起点是比特币。投资前必须做好承受60%至70%剧烈回撤的心理准备，因为这种短期惊涛骇浪正是享受年化复合150%超额回报的必然对价。策略是“每月不论价格高低坚持定投”，利用其指数级增长属性沉淀个人财富。 2. **第二步（世界计算机）：向以太坊（ETH）迁移** 随着对加密底层认知的加深，追求超额利润的资金会寻求更高弹性的生态。拉乌尔自己在2020年就将全部比特币换仓到了以太坊，押注其作为去中心化全球计算平台和丰富生态底座的爆发力。 3. **第三步（高性能公链）：轮动至 Solana（SOL）** 在2022年深熊周期的绝对底部，拉乌尔敏锐捕捉到 Solana 呈现出全面跑赢以太坊的势头。在拉乌尔眼中，各大区块链本质上都是销售“区块空间（Block space）”的去中心化软件企业： - **比特币**：主打极致的底层安全性与价值存储； - **以太坊**：生态庞大但成本高昂、架构沉重的“世界计算机”； - **Solana**：极速、廉价、体验丝滑，拥有极度热情的散户群体和强大的开发者创新生态，极具零售友好度。看准这一趋势后，拉乌尔除了保留部分艺术类 NFT 外，将其全部以太坊持仓激进调仓至 Solana。 4. **第四步（下一代黑马）：布局 Sui（SUI）** 拉乌尔透露，自己近期已开始将部分 Solana 资产轮动至 Sui（他本人亦兼任 Sui 基金会董事）。Sui 团队源自 Meta（Facebook）当年的 Libra/Diem 加密货币项目，被他视作具备承接下一波公链爆发潜力的天选之子（The chosen one）。 拉乌尔直言不讳地将自己定义为一个“资本雇佣军（Capital Mercenary）”：尽管他对这项能够赋权第三世界、重构互联网的技术充满理想主义激情，但面对自己的投资组合，唯一的硬道理就是追求资本回报率的最大化。针对史蒂文单押以太坊的策略，拉乌尔评价道：虽然长期来看依然会有不错的收益，但绝非实现财富增长最优解的选择；然而是否要参与这种高难度的赛道轮动，全凭投资者自身对风险的承受力与精力的充沛程度。 - **核心资产特性对比与配置演进**： - **比特币（Bitcoin）**：公认的底层资产基石，具备极致安全性与高普及度，适合普通人通过定期定额（DCA）定投； - **以太坊（Ethereum）**：智能合约的先驱与开发者生态大本营，在实体产业供应链与大宗商品结算中已被顶级机构深度应用； - **Solana（Solana）**：交易吞吐极高、低手续费，展现出更强的零售吸附力与生态创新速度； - **Sui（Sui Network）**：Facebook Libra 原班核心技术团队倾力打造的高性能下一代公链平台。 ### [01:30:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5442s) 风险曲线陷阱与“香蕉区”的狂热幻觉 投资加密资产和工作一样，本质上取决于你愿意钻多深：你究竟有多少闲暇时间可以投入，以换取预期的上涨空间。Steven Bartlett 坦言自己大部分精力都在做播客、创业经商，根本没有时间深挖。Raoul Pal 表示，那就维持现状即可——只要没有确凿数据表明以太坊（Ethereum）的使用率断崖式下跌或核心开发者集体出走，就不必焦虑。大方向正确就足够了，普通人没必要去妄想捕捉市场最顶端的极端收益，因为那往往只是某些人凭运气撞上的。 Raoul 观察到绝大多数投资者都会经历一个注定失败的心理演变过程：一开始，人们通常很理智，只持有比特币（Bitcoin）和以太坊（ETH）等主流资产；随后，看到别人赚了更多的钱，贪婪驱使他们沿着“风险曲线”（Risk Curve）往外走；而当真正的狂暴牛市来临——也就是资产价格垂直拉升、陷入疯狂的“香蕉区”（The Banana Zone）时，社交网络上到处都是“我买了这个模因币（Meme Coin）今天赚了 100 万美元”的炫耀贴。此时人们彻底失去理智，蜂拥买入各类毫无实质价值的垃圾资产。最终，当音乐戛然而止，处于风险曲线极端的所有空气币归零，唯有具备网络效应的高质量代币能够保住价值。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 加密市场散户风险演变路径 accDescr: 展示散户从理性持有主流币到盲目加杠杆投机山寨币最终爆仓的心理与行为路径 subgraph Phase1 ["阶段一：稳健起步"] A["理性买入 BTC / ETH"] end subgraph Phase2 ["阶段二：贪婪滋生与香蕉区狂热"] B["见他人暴富，踏上风险曲线"] C["牛市香蕉区启动，价格垂直冲顶"] D["受社交媒体暴富神话刺激，全仓垃圾模因币"] end subgraph Phase3 ["阶段三：杠杆毁灭与周期清算"] E["不满年化收益，借贷加杠杆博取暴利"] F["狂欢终结，空气币归零，杠杆爆仓"] G["唯有核心优质资产幸存"] end A --> B B --> C C --> D D --> E E --> F F --> G ``` ### [01:32:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5534s) 杠杆的致命诱惑：你唯一的任务是不失去代币 在沿着风险曲线滑落的过程中，投资者最致命的行为是加杠杆（Leverage）。杠杆的本质就是借钱买入更多资产。以太坊自 2015 年以来的年化复合回报率高达 160%，但对贪心的人来说这还不够，他们妄想一年翻 400%、500%，于是通过永续合约、期货市场甚至刷爆信用卡借钱下注。然而，如果深信整个加密行业将在未来几年从 2 万亿美元扩张至 100 万亿美元，投资者的第一生存法则是极度明确的：“你唯一的任务，就是别把你的代币弄丢（You have one job, not to lose your tokens）。” Steven Bartlett 分享了自己身边的极端案例：在他五位最好的朋友中，有一位全职投入加密货币、每天沉浸其中，甚至搬到了迪拜，最终赚到的钱却最少，甚至沦落到经济状况最差的境地；相反，Steven 自己在过去 6 年里只专注定投一种主流币，买入后存入冷钱包，从来不卖，甚至完全想不起上次登录账户查看余额是什么时候，收益反而远超那位全职投机的朋友。Raoul 对此高度认同，指出 Steven 之所以胜出，正是因为他严格执行了不出错的闭环： - 顺应长期的世俗技术趋势，不被短期波动所迷惑。 - 采用冷钱包私钥自托管，彻底消除了第三方交易平台的单点故障（Single Point of Failure）。 - 资产集中在极低弃用风险的核心前三名资产：比特币（Bitcoin）、以太坊（Ethereum）以及索拉纳（Solana）。 对于资产配置，Raoul 提出了清晰的防爆仓策略：将投资组合的 80% 至 90% 重仓于这三者之中，并且坚决不加任何杠杆；剩下的 10% 资金可以任由人性折腾，就算全军覆没也无关痛痒，还能当作一堂深刻的风险教育课。 ### [01:35:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5717s) 模因币赌场与千倍神话的心理反噬 Steven 提到那位在迪拜的朋友及其同事的遭遇：有人曾靠押注模因币狂赚几千万美元，但转眼间便彻底破产、深陷债务危机。这种暴富又返贫的宿命正如摩根·豪瑟（Morgan Housel）在《金钱心理学》（The Psychology of Money）中所阐述的核心法则——那种促使你孤注一掷去博取千倍极端高风险回报的激进心态，恰恰也是日后让你在周期反转时将所有利润悉数吐回的心态。 Raoul 将模因币市场直接定性为一个大型赌场，尽管在这个赌场里由于金融市场整体趋势的抬升，短期内可能出现“所有人都在纸面上赚钱”的异常繁荣，但只要没有落袋为安，一切皆是浮云。上一轮牛市中的 NFT 热潮，以及 2017 年盛极一时的 EOS 等项目，多数在狂潮退去后跌入深渊： - **投机的局限性**：投机在特定时间窗口内的期望收益确实高于彩票或传统赌场，但清算时刻必然到来。 - **赢家通吃**：当巨浪退去、庄家清扫赌桌时，全场通常只有不到 5% 的人能带着利润离场。 - **肾上腺素成瘾**：深陷其中的往往是重度网瘾者（Terminally Online）和肾上腺素上瘾者，他们把炒币当作高频的体育博彩与生活刺激源。 ### [01:37:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5865s) 男性荷尔蒙、多巴胺回路与心碎的忏悔录 Steven 提出一个深刻的问题：为什么加密货币投机和赌博呈现出极端的性别失衡——统计显示赌博成瘾者中有高达 95% 至 98% 是男性？这背后是否与男性的社会存在感、目标感及群体文化重叠？ Raoul 分析指出，这深植于男性背负的沉重社会期许与生理心理机制： - **养家糊口与成功的重压**：社会传统观念依然给男性灌输了必须成为“经济支柱”（Breadwinner）的巨大压力。男性社交充满角斗士般的竞争氛围，但内心却极度孤独，极少与他人倾诉恐惧与软弱，这种对快速出人头地的病态渴望直接催化了孤注一掷的赌徒心理。 - **行为经济学与多巴胺操纵**：如同斯金纳箱（Skinner Box）里的白鼠实验，互联网的点赞机制、愤怒情绪与暴富刺激精准击中了大脑的多巴胺奖赏回路，使投机演化为严重的神经化学成瘾。 在谈到这种狂热带来的现实悲剧时，Raoul 提到了社交媒体上那些令人心碎的加密货币“忏悔页”（Confession Pages）。上面充斥着大量家庭顶梁柱的真实惨剧：比如一位抚养三个 7 岁以下幼童的父亲，瞒着家人将全部积蓄押注在劣质模因币上，最终血本无归，面对妻子的盘问无言以对、家庭濒临破碎。尽管随着行业演进，越来越多的女性正在进入区块链建设领域并逐步扭转粗鄙的“加密兄弟”（Crypto Bro）文化，但这种源于贪婪与多巴胺劫持的悲剧依然在每一个牛熊周期中重复上演。 ### [01:40:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6005s) 加密货币的惨痛教训与“别搞砸”定投策略 史蒂芬提到网络和纪录片中充斥的惨痛悲剧，身边甚至就发生过血淋淋的例子：他的私人教练把极其微薄且宝贵的 6,000 英镑积蓄全仓砸进某个不知名的山寨币，结果彻底归零、血本无归；在漫长的熊市中，甚至有人因亏光全部身家而选择自杀。许多普通人之所以对加密货币敬而远之，正是因为他们听过这种恐怖故事，或者自己本身就是惨遭血洗的受害者。因此，这里急需一个明确的投资警告与免责声明。 拉乌尔随即给出了他的核心操作法则——“别搞砸”策略（Don't Fuck This Up Thesis）。要避免本金归零，最稳妥的铁律就是只买比特币（Bitcoin）、以太坊（Ethereum）和索拉纳（Solana）这三大主流资产。投资者可以三选一，但最好是三者全部配置。史蒂芬提醒道，即使投资这些主流代币，价格也有可能腰斩或暴跌 70%。拉乌尔指出，这完全取决于投资的时间维度（Time Horizon）以及个人的生活目标。如果抱着“急功近利”、“想在明年就暴富”的赌徒心态，他强烈建议干脆不要碰加密货币，因为过度承担风险必然导致满盘皆输；但如果是带着 5 年左右的合理预期，希望实现 3 到 5 倍的稳健回报，这套策略就完全适用。 ### [01:41:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6101s) 拒绝具体点位预测：从 2 万亿到 100 万亿美元的十年超级浪潮 当史蒂芬试图让拉乌尔给出具体的代币目标价时，拉乌尔坚决拒绝提供任何价格预测。他解释说，很多散户听了他的言论后，会围绕某个具体的数字建立起错误的心理模型，从而产生虚假的安全感，不仅停止了独立思考和逻辑验证，反而开始不切实际地做发财梦——比如算计着“只要我投 1 万美元，拉乌尔预测成真我就能拿到 100 万美元”，让投资彻底沦为情绪化的赌博。 拉乌尔更倾向于向大众展现宏观大势：在接下来的 10 年内（到 2032 至 2034 年左右），加密资产的整体市值预计将从当前的约 2 万亿美元迅猛扩张至 100 万亿美元。拉乌尔创办的资产管理机构 Exponential Age（X Fund）正是为了捕捉这个指数级浪潮，尽管该基金目前只面向高净值与机构投资者开放，但普通人同样可以借势参与。只要投资者拥有 10 年的耐心，顺应大约每 4 年一次的强周期规律，每隔几年在周期高点套现一部分利润充实自己的“生活筹码”，就能稳步改善生活质感。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 加密资产十年规模增长与操作闭环 accDescr: 展现从当前2万亿美元到100万亿美元的资产规模预测，以及基于4年周期的定投套现循环。 subgraph Scale["资产规模展望 (2024 - 2034)"] A["当前总市值: ~2万亿美元"] --> B["十年目标总市值: ~100万亿美元"] end subgraph Action["投资者周期策略"] C["持有 BTC / ETH / SOL 组合"] --> D["经历约4年市场周期"] D --> E["周期性分批套现盈利"] E --> F["改善现实生活质量"] end ``` ### [01:43:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6211s) AI 推算价格天花板与容错率哲学 趁着拉乌尔陈述的间隙，史蒂芬现场使用 AI 算了一笔账：如果 10 年后加密市场总规模达到 100 万亿美元： - 若比特币市占率为 40%（市值 40 万亿美元），以 1,900 多万枚的供应量计算，单枚比特币价格将达到约 210 万美元； - 若比特币市占率维持在 50%（市值 50 万亿美元），单枚价格将飙升至 260 万美元（对比录制当下约 62,000 美元的价格）； - 若以太坊占据 15% 的市场份额，其单枚价格将达到 125,000 美元（对比当下约 2,400 美元的价格）。 拉乌尔对此分享了他在 2012 至 2013 年撰写全网第一篇专业比特币机构研报时的心路历程。当时比特币价格仅为 200 美元，拉乌尔运用大趋势模型推算出它未来值 100 万美元。他当时写道：“就算我预测错误 90%，它依然价值 10 万美元；在现价 200 美元买入，它仍是你这辈子能遇到的最棒交易。”历史证实了他的判断。退一步讲，即使拉乌尔这次在 100 万亿美元的预测上犯了 50% 的大错，整体市场规模也能达到 50 万亿美元，比特币单枚价格仍能站上 100 万美元左右，带来高达 15 倍左右的回报空间。 ### [01:45:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6320s) 面对不可抗力：万一全面押注的逻辑错了怎么办？ 史蒂芬尖锐发问：拉乌尔将自己的事业、财富与 Real Vision 平台用户的信任全部押在这一领域，但 20 年前没人能预见比特币崛起，5 年前没人料到 AI 会全面爆发；如果加密逻辑彻底崩溃，他该如何应对？ 拉乌尔坦承，作为投资者，犯错本就是游戏的一部分，但肩负着指导普通人走出财务困境的重担，这种责任感确实让他感到巨大的压力。然而，他反复推演后认为，只要全球技术采纳曲线没有断崖式下跌，人类在日益数字化的全球网络中就必须解决数字身份、智能合约以及计算机科学中著名的“拜占庭将军问题”，而区块链是迄今为止唯一完美的数学与加密解法。虽然 AI 或未来的量子密码学或许可能催生更好的系统，但技术革新落地并全面替代现有网络需要漫长的周期。 拉乌尔梳理了加密投资必须承受的客观风险与核心底牌： - 政策打击与监管扼杀风险（但分布式架构如同压入水底的软木塞，按下去又会在各处浮起）。 - 底层公链失去竞争力的风险。 - 每 3 到 4 年资产价值暴跌 70% 至 80% 的极端周期波动风险。 - 个人私钥丢失与操作失误风险。 - 但核心胜率在于：世界的数字化进程绝不可逆；更重要的是，这是一场罕见的由普通个体自下而上推动的金融变革，散户群体在机构获准入场前就已经完成了布局。 ### [01:48:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6492s) 纸币错觉与法币购买力贬值 史蒂芬顺着逻辑提出质疑：这是否意味着普通人辛苦赚来的收入，根本不应该作为法币纸钞存留在央行或传统商业银行的账户中？ 拉乌尔说明，每个人都需要根据自身现实情况配置流动性应急资金。银行账户中 10 万英镑以内的存款通常享有政府法案保护，表面上本金绝不会损失。然而，把钱死死按在银行账户里会遭遇另一种更致命、更隐蔽的损失路径——那就是法币购买力的持续贬值（Debasement of Currency）。 随后，史蒂芬插入了一则赞助商播客插播，分享了 WHOOP 智能手环发起的“十月戒酒挑战”（Sober October）。他表示 WHOOP 彻底改变了他的生活方式并促使他成功戒酒，这类工具的核心在于让个体掌握对生活的掌控权并做出更明智的决策，观众可通过专属链接获取免费试用。 ### [01:49:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6571s) 赞助商插播：访谈背后的即时笔记与协同工具 GoodNotes 在进入深度宏观议题之前，主持人 Steven Bartlett 分享了一个从未公开过的幕后细节：在录制长达数小时的播客时，他面前始终放着一块巨大的 iPad 屏幕。许多观众曾好奇他在长达三个小时的高密度对谈中，究竟使用什么工具来做背景调研并实时整理思绪。Steven 正式介绍了本期播客的赞助商——手写与 AI 笔记应用 GoodNotes。 这款工具不仅让他在访谈前能有条不紊地捕捉灵感，还能在对谈进行时实时批注调研资料并随手记录要点。最核心的价值在于，Steven 在屏幕上写下的所有笔记都能实时同步给坐在房间角落的制作人 Jack 的电脑上，在录制过程中维持即时沟通与协作。 --- ### [01:50:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6633s) 什么是货币贬值（Currency Debasement）？ 对谈切入宏观经济的核心命题：货币贬值。Raoul Pal 用极通俗的语言解释了这一机制：在数字化世界中，当某样东西变得无限充裕时，它的单位价值就会趋近于零。这就像一个人刚从沙漠走出来，愿意付出倾家荡产的代价买一瓶水；但若给他一百万瓶水，他一分钱也不会给。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 货币贬值的古今演变对比 accDescr: 对比古代罗马帝国剪切金币边缘与现代央行一键印钞导致购买力缩水的机制。 subgraph Ancient["古代金币贬值 (罗马帝国)"] A1["铸造1盎司纯金币"] --> A2["皇帝剪下微小金边 (用于个人挥霍)"] A2 --> A3["钱币含金量实质下降"] A3 --> A4["物价重估，民众持有的铸币购买力缩水"] end subgraph Modern["现代信用货币贬值"] B1["经济体巨额债务负担加重"] --> B2["央行按下按钮凭空生成电子流动性"] B2 --> B3["基础货币量大幅膨胀"] B3 --> B4["稀缺资产价格暴涨，法币真实购买力年年下降"] end ``` 在古代，罗马帝国的统治者实行货币贬值的方式是悄悄剪掉金币边缘的一小块金属，假装它依然是足额的 1 盎司，然后把搜集起来的黄金用于个人挥霍，留给公众的却是成色不足的劣币；在电子时代，政府和央行甚至不需要剪刀，只需在键盘上“按下按钮”就能凭空创造海量资金。 - 普通人最直观的体会类似汇率波动：比如美国游客去货币不断走弱的墨西哥度假，会觉得物价极其便宜；但对赚取比索的当地居民而言，生活成本却在飙升，因为手里的比索购买力缩水了。 - 现代主权货币的本质，正在通过这种隐蔽的方式逐步侵蚀持有者的劳动成果。 --- ### [01:52:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6767s) 2008 年以后的债务泥潭与 4 年流动性周期 回顾历史转折点，Raoul 指出 2008 年金融危机是一个分水岭。当时全球主要经济体的政府债务率全部冲破了 GDP 的 100%，企业和家庭部门同样深陷债务狂欢（"debt orgy"）。当体系崩塌后，家庭与企业部门借贷受限，各国政府被迫接盘承接所有债务，并把利率降至零。 当前，美国总体债务规模已占其 GDP 的 380% 左右，而全球总债务更是达到了全球 GDP 的 400%。在经济增速仅有 2% 的情况下，如果利率也是 2%，意味着全部经济增长成果都要拿来支付债务利息。债务规模已经大到极度脆弱，若真如某些极端观点所言“彻底推倒重来”，将会直接导致全社会资产蒸发 75%、养老金账户清零、企业和政府集体破产。为了避免灾难性崩盘，央行唯一的应对方式就是借新还旧——“用一张新的信用卡去还上一张信用卡的账单”。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 4年主权债务与流动性注水循环 accDescr: 展示自2008年降息发债以来，每隔4年政府借新还旧并向金融体系注水推高资产价格的循环机制。 D1["2008年利率归零<br/>政府发售3至5年期国债"] --> D2["每隔约4年进入集中再融资周期"] D2 --> D3["央行通过隐蔽机制投放流动性<br/>(压低实际利率、吞吐资产)"] D3 --> D4["法币对稀缺资产购买力<br/>年均贬值约8%"] D4 --> D1 ``` - **4 年再融资周期**：2008 年各大央行将利率重置为零后，发行了大量 3 至 5 年期的政府债务。因此，全球金融系统每隔大约 4 年就会迎来一次集中的再融资高峰，央行必须在此时向系统大量注入流动性。 - **从公开资产负债表到隐蔽流动性**：过去央行通过量化宽松（QE）在资产负债表上直接买国债，现在则采用更加难以肉眼察觉的流动性调控机制，在全球人口老龄化加剧的大背景下，主要央行保持着高度默契的协同注水。 --- ### [01:56:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7018s) “万物法则”（The Everything Code）：唯二跑赢贬值的资产 这种流动性注水直接导致普通人的真实财富被无情稀释。根据 Raoul 的测算，法定货币相对于稀缺资产的购买力平均每年缩水 8%，若再加上约 3% 的官方通胀率，**财富的实际折损门槛高达每年 11%**。这意味着如果你的投资回报率达不到 11%，你的“未来自我”实际上每年都在变穷。 普通投资者通常将 S&P 500 指数作为财富锚定物，但其年化收益率恰恰在 11% 左右——冒着长期锁定资金的巨大市场风险，最终仅仅是勉强对冲了货币贬值，并未真正创造增量财富；房地产的表现类似，更多只是反映了货币贬值的幅度；而传统观念中用于抗通胀的黄金，扣除这一贬值速率后实际回报甚至为负。 Raoul 将这套人口结构老龄化、债务高企、央行每 4 年被迫注入流动性的闭环逻辑总结为**“万物法则”（The Everything Code）**。当他把全球主流大类资产用 11% 的贬值基准进行除数折算后，震惊地发现全球仅有两类资产能够真正击败这台宏观吸血机： | 资产类别 | 典型年化收益表现 | 抵御 11% 贬值门槛后的真实成效 | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **黄金 (Gold)** | 跑输或仅持平 | 未能跑赢货币供应扩张，实际购买力甚至缩水 | | **标普 500 (S&P 500)** | 约 11% / 年 | 仅勉强与 8% 贬值 + 3% 通胀打平，风险收益比极低 | | **房地产 (Real Estate)** | 略高于或持平通胀 | 价格上涨本质是资产计价被稀释，难以大幅积累超额财富 | | **科技股 (以纳斯达克为例)** | 约 18% / 年 | **胜出**：技术驱动的高成长性成功跑赢贬值红利 | | **加密资产 (Crypto)** | 150%+ / 年（Solana 达 250%） | **大胜**：即便经历数次 80% 的剧烈回撤，仍创造了惊人的超额回报 | 这一数据彻底颠覆了 Raoul Pal 原有的宏观投资框架。他放弃了过去在传统对冲基金时期恪守的广谱分散、多资产平衡配置模型，将自己的全部投资重心断然押注在仅有的两条突围赛道上：科技与加密资产。 ### [01:59:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7171s) 科技与加密货币的双重赌注：Raoul 的全仓策略与交易遗憾 讨论转向了宏观层面的宏大下注。Raoul Pal 指出，放眼当今世界，本质上只存在两个超级赌注：科技和加密货币。他列举了一个惊人的数据：自 2012 年以来，纳斯达克指数相较于比特币竟然缩水了 99.97%。当 Steven 询问 Raoul 个人将多少比例的流动资产配置在加密货币上时，Raoul 毫不犹豫地回答：“100% 的流动净资产，而且这种状态已经持续了整整 5 年。” 面对“你是否做得很好”的提问，Raoul 坦承收益极高，且没有犯过致命错误，但随后他以极为诚恳的态度拆解了自己自 2013 年入局以来的具体交易经历与心路历程： - **初入市场的暴赚与暴跌**：2013 年，在比特币极其稚嫩且未被证明时，他以 200 美元左右的价格重仓买入。买入后的短短 3 个月内暴涨约 5 倍，他内心自诩为“全世界最优秀的投资天才”。然而市场迅速回撤 87%，他随后选择不再频繁查看报价，坚定其 10 万美元的长线愿景。 - **2017 年的错误下车**：到了 2017 年初（约三四月份），比特币涨到 2,500 美元，他的持仓获得了 10 到 12 倍的惊人回报。此时网络上出现了硬分叉争议与新的比特币变种代码，面对复杂莫测的技术走向，Raoul 选择了获利了结离场。然而就在同年 12 月，比特币一路飙升至 20,000 美元，在当年年内又翻了近 10 倍，随后再遭遇 85% 的惨烈熊市。 - **2020 年抄底与最终反思**：2020 年新冠疫情爆发引发流动性大崩盘，在比特币骤跌 50% 之际，他再度大举抄底买入。Raoul 总结道，虽然自己“抄在低位、卖在高位、并在暴跌时再次抄底”，但如果从一开始就傻傻地持有不动，最终收益会是现在的 5 倍；而如果践行他自己一直倡导的法则——每隔 4 年大暴跌时全力加仓买入，他获得的收益将高达 25 倍。“尽管我宏观方向完全看对了，但我依然搞砸了。” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Raoul Pal 的比特币交易轨迹与教训 accDescr: 展示从 2013 年首次买入到 2020 年重新买入的四阶段投资循环及复盘得失。 subgraph Phase1["2013: 初战成名与幻灭"] A["200 美元买入"] --> B["3 个月内暴涨 5 倍"] B --> C["遭遇 87% 惨烈回撤并死守"] end subgraph Phase2["2017: 提早离场错过主升浪"] C --> D["2,500 美元清仓 (获利 10-12 倍)"] D -. "硬分叉困惑提前离场".-> E["年底冲上 20,000 美元再跌 85%"] end subgraph Phase3["2020: 危机中再度归来"] E --> F["疫情暴跌 50% 期间重新全仓买入"] end subgraph Takeaway["复盘得失"] F --> G["一路死拿原仓位：收益为现在的 5 倍"] F --> H["逢 4 年周期暴跌全力定投：收益为现在的 25 倍"] end ``` --- ### [02:01:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7309s) 人生最大的交易是“生活质量”：金钱、体验与舒适圈的边界 Steven 引用了 Raoul 的一句名言：“世界上最好的交易永远是生活质量。如果你的账户里装满了生活品质和精彩的人生体验，那就是地球上最伟大的交易，而我会将这笔交易一直做到离世的那一天。”Raoul 对此展开了深刻的人生哲学阐述。 他提醒人们，金钱本质上只是一套“记分系统”，它的真正功能是赋予人们特权，但无数人迷失了方向，把金钱本身当成了特权。真正的特权在于自由：选择居住地的自由、与所爱之人相伴的自由、抚养家庭的自由。金钱可以换来安全感——比如他在西班牙大自然中购买了属于自己的居所，享有宜人的气候与安宁；但世界上真正不可替代的硬通货是“独特的人生体验”。他刚刚结束在赞比亚偏远野外的生活，深入了解不同的人群与文明，破除对异质文化的恐惧与成见，结交深厚友谊，而这些“绝不可能通过金钱直接买到”，只能亲自付出时间去肉身经历。 Raoul 强调，人的“舒适区”（Comfort Zone）与“奇迹诞生之处”（Where the magic happens）就像两个完全不重叠的维恩图（Venn diagram）。想要体验人生的魔力，就必须勇敢迈出舒适区；否则，生活就只沦为按部就班的数字打卡。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 舒适圈与奇迹区域的不相交关系 accDescr: 维恩图逻辑展示舒适圈与人生奇迹彼此分离，必须跨出舒适圈才能体验精彩。 subgraph Disjoint["生活体验模型"] direction LR CZ["舒适区 (Comfort Zone)<br>安全、机械、按部就班"] MAGIC["奇迹发生区 (Magic Area)<br>成长、震撼、深度体验"] end CZ -. "必须主动踏出边界".-> MAGIC ``` - **幸福的解法**：普通人追求海滩生活，既可以拼死成为亿万富翁去圣巴泰勒米岛（St. Barts），也可以利用互联网在拉丁美洲以极低的成本定居海滩。人们痛苦的根源往往在于“对未来自我的幻想”与“现实处境”之间产生了割裂。一旦理清内心真正渴望的核心要素（如海洋、自然美景、真挚的社交与爱人），实现它的路径其实有成百上千种，并不完全依赖巨额财富。 --- ### [02:06:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7579s) 归隐西班牙与重燃野心：从提前退休到 Cayman 岛二次创业 回顾自己的生涯跨度，Raoul 分享了自己在“打拼阶段”与“享乐阶段”之间的剧烈摇摆。在经历了投资银行与对冲基金的高强度洗礼后，三十多岁的他决定彻底退出职场内卷。他在西班牙国家公园旁、临近海滩的美丽居所安顿下来，种植橄榄和杏仁，甚至觉得自己“如同中了彩票”。在此期间，他创办了研究机构 Global Macro Investor，并因成功预见 2008 年全球金融危机而名声大噪。 然而，十年的半退休生活带来了意想不到的精神荒原。他发现身边的邻里朋友虽然和善，但缺乏智力上的深度激荡，永远无法展开触及灵魂或前沿认知的硬核对话。作为一个习惯在金融市场与高风险中汲取肾上腺素的人，生活逐渐被泡酒吧、逛夜店的空虚填满。沉沦 10 年后，他惊觉必须挣脱这种停滞，自己骨子里依然深爱着创业和投资的激情，渴望与同频者并肩作战。 以此为契机，他顺应内心对热带海滩与潜水的热爱，在开曼群岛（Cayman Islands）盖了房子，举家迁往加勒比海，创立了金融媒体平台 Real Vision。如今，他同时掌舵四家企业，工作负荷达到了前所未有的顶峰，却感到充实而快乐。对他而言，这是一场既提升了生活方式、又在智力维度上不断证明自我能力的人生新篇章。 --- ### [02:08:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7693s) 终极拷问：前任嘉宾鲍里斯·约翰逊留下的解雇困局 节目迎来了标志性的压轴传统：由上一期嘉宾为本期嘉宾留下一道盲盒问题。主持人 Steven 破天荒地首次公开了出题者的身份——英国前首相鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson）。 鲍里斯留下的问题充满自嘲与讽刺：“你是否曾经试图去解雇（Sack）某个人，但当会议结束时，你却在不经意间给他升了职？” 听到是鲍里斯的问题，Raoul 忍不住笑称对方显然是“深有切身体会”。随后，Raoul 坦白承认：“我认为我可能真的干过这种事，或者至少非常接近这种情况。”他剖析了自身性格中的弱点： - 他的父亲是英国人，母亲是荷兰人，这种文化基因让他习惯于回避冲突、讨厌戏剧化的正面对抗，在人际交往中极度厌恶当面撕破脸皮。 - 相比之下，他的美国妻子做事风格则是“直奔要害（go straight in for the kill）”，教会了他直面冲突。 - Steven 也对此产生了强烈共鸣，承认自己同样经历过这种不敢撕破脸而导致的荒唐场面。Raoul 总结道，作为领导者，学会果断、直接地开展艰难对话（difficult conversations），是所有人在管理与人生修行中必须啃下的硬骨头。 ### [02:09:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7780s) 打破精英垄断：普及金融认知与 Real Vision 资源 主持人 Steven 满怀敬意地向 Raoul Pal 表达了由衷的感谢。他坦言，每当自己需要寻找有关加密货币、宏观经济环境或通货膨胀等复杂议题的见解时，Raoul 的频道一直是他唯一信任并主动探寻的信源。多数财经内容充斥着晦涩难懂的行话术语，往往直接跳过基础解释，让普通人望而却步；而 Raoul 却能够以兼具深度与细致入微的视角，把极其复杂的金融逻辑解释得人人都能理解。Steven 感慨道，历史上这类高阶的宏观洞察往往被局限在少数精英群体或华尔街金融圈内，而 Raoul 创办的 Real Vision 真正打破了这道壁垒，让数百万人看清了货币贬值的本质，打破了财富积累与储蓄的传统神话。对他个人而言，Raoul 不仅是当天的对谈嘉宾，更是长期以来启发心智的导师。 Raoul 诚挚地回应了这份赞誉，强调自己做这一切的初衷始终是真诚地帮助尽可能多的人走出财务困境。为了配合本期节目中探讨的“万物代码”（The Everything Code）核心框架，他特意在 Real Vision 上为观众开辟了专属学习专区。观众只需访问专属页面，就能免费阅读研究文档、观看对应视频，并获得免费的 Real Vision 会员权限。如果学习过程中遇到任何搞不懂的概念，页面右下角还内置了专属的 Real Vision AI 问答机器人，能够随时解答疑问。Raoul 坚定地直言，现在所有的工具与知识都已经毫无保留地免费开放给大众，没有任何借口不去“拯救并掌握自己的未来”。 - **Real Vision 专区福利**：提供完整的《The Everything Code》文档与视频教学，可免费注册加入。 - **内置 AI 助手支持**：界面右下角设有专门的 Real Vision 智能对话机器人，实时解答宏观金融与加密概念。 - **普惠金融理念**：致力于将以往专属于华尔街精英的宏观经济与资产配置工具下沉普及，赋能大众抵御货币贬值。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Real Vision 普惠金融教育体系 accDescr: 展现从打破传统精英垄断到提供免费工具、文档与 AI 助手的赋能闭环 subgraph Problem["传统困境"] A["传统金融认知门槛高"] --> B["信息与洞察被少数精英垄断"] end subgraph Solution["Real Vision 赋能路径"] C["直白通俗的宏观框架拆解"] --> D["The Everything Code 免费专区"] D --> E["Real Vision AI 问答助手实时解惑"] end subgraph Outcome["最终目标"] F["看清货币贬值真相"] G["掌握资产自救与财富自主权"] end B --> C E --> F E --> G ``` ### [02:11:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7902s) 赞助商致辞与健康管理心得：Zoe 科学营养方案 在节目的尾声，主持人 Steven 分享了自己作为投资人与长期用户的健康体会，推荐了个性化营养科学品牌 Zoe。他强调“每一次进食都是一次改善自身健康的机会”。Zoe 通过将用户的个人健康生理数据与国际一流的营养科研相结合，指导用户在每一次用餐时做出最适合自己身体的食物选择。 Steven 透露，自己使用 Zoe 已有一年多时间，其成效不仅带来了精力充沛、深度睡眠改善、情绪稳定以及饥饿感减少等直观变化，更重要的是该体系背后拥有极具科学公信力的大规模临床试验——“METHOD 研究”的支持。借由持续追踪每周的营养数据，他得以不断调整并优化自己的日常饮食习惯。节目最后，Steven 还为经常向他索取优惠的听众提供了专属折扣码。 - **科学实证支撑**：Zoe 的个性化健康营养方案由著名的临床试验 METHOD Study（黄金标准研究）背书。 - **身心改善维度**：长期运用个性化饮食建议有助于显著提升日间精力、优化夜间睡眠、平稳情绪并减少不必要的饥饿感。 - **听众专属福利**：结账时输入优惠码 `Steven10`，即可享受加入 Zoe 计划的 10% 优惠。 ## Notable quotes > [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=0s) 距离一切彻底改变大约只剩下 6 年时间。 — Raoul Pal > [05:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=338s) 帮人们挽救他们搞砸的未来（Unfuck people's future）。 — Raoul Pal > [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=738s) 去他的平衡（Fuck it）。 — Raoul Pal > [20:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1207s) 游戏就是游戏，你必须按照它的规则去玩。 — Raoul Pal > [30:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=1833s) 做别人不做的事，本身就是一种超能力。 — Raoul Pal > [47:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=2844s) 知识现在变得像自来水一样廉价。 — Raoul Pal > [56:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3364s) AI 正在吞噬软件（AI is going to eat software）。 — Raoul Pal > [01:02:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=3755s) It means fuck all. You don't own anything. — Raoul Pal > [01:32:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=5534s) You have one job, not to lose your tokens. — Raoul Pal > [01:43:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=6211s) 就算我预测错误 90%，它依然价值 10 万美元；在现价 200 美元买入，它仍是你这辈子能遇到的最棒交易。 — Raoul Pal > [02:01:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7309s) 世界上最好的交易永远是生活质量。如果你的账户里装满了生活品质和精彩的人生体验，那就是地球上最伟大的交易，而我会将这笔交易一直做到离世的那一天。 — Raoul Pal > [02:11:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4&t=7902s) 每一次进食都是一次改善自身健康的机会。 — Steven Bartlett ## Mentioned Raoul Pal, Steven Bartlett, Real Vision, Goldman Sachs, Global Macro Investor, ZeroHedge, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Sui, Sui Foundation, Thirdweb, DocuSign, Ledger, Coinbase, Kraken, Crypto.com, Gemini, Revolut, PayPal, Waymo, OpenAI, Character.ai, Neuralink, Fiverr, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Tom Bilyeu, Quest Nutrition, Balaji Srinivasan, Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money, Boris Johnson, WHOOP, GoodNotes, Zoe ## Video description The clock is ticking – Raoul Pal reveals how AI will transform the global economy and why crypto might be your best chance of survival. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Tether, Solana, Dogecoin, Which do you invest in? Raoul Pal is the co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world-renowned financial knowledge and education platform. He is also the former Head of European Hedge Fund Sales at Goldman Sachs. 00:00 Intro 02:07 What Is Raoul's Mission? 05:38 What Would The Average Person Say About Raoul's Work? 06:47 What Will Fuck My Financial Future? 11:14 Stats Today Vs 1980's 12:18 How To Play 'The Game' Of Finance In Your Younger Years? 13:30 What About Work Life Balance? 13:58 What Knowledge Should I Acquire? 14:57 How To Become An Expert? 16:41 Manifesting Your Future 17:16 How To Progress Once You're An Expert 19:42 What If You Don't Have Excess Income To Invest? 24:05 What About Buying A House? 26:28 Viewers Comments 30:07 Advice From Steven's Brother About Being An Expert 31:58 Applying Your Knowledge To Get The Highest Return 39:01 How Do I Spot A Trend 39:02 AI Will Free So Much Our Time That We Won't Know What To Do With It 42:53 The AI Component 47:24 How Disruptive Will AI Be? 51:18 Should We Be Scared Of AI? 54:37 How To Know If A Trend Will Be Persistent 57:53 Are We At The Collapse Of The Digital Industry? 59:06 How Do You Invest In AI? 01:00:51 What Is Crypto 01:01:18 Productivity And AI 01:06:32 Blockchain Explained 01:08:04 Contracts On The Blockchain 01:10:54 NFTs 01:12:12 Should You Invest In Blockchain? 01:21:43 How Do I Benefit From Buying Crypto? 01:23:01 How To Invest In Crypto 01:24:27 What Is A Ledger Device? 01:25:41 What Coin Should You Invest In? 01:32:14 What Is Leverage? 01:37:45 Do Men Invest More In Crypto? 01:39:42 The Nightmare Stories With Crypto 01:41:41 What Is Raoul's Price Prediction for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana? 01:45:20 What If Raoul Is Wrong? 01:50:35 What Is The Debasement Of Currency? 02:01:30 The Best Trade Is Quality Of Life 02:08:13 The Last Guest Question Follow Raoul: Instagram - https://g2ul0.app.link/4dEPXGm3iOb Twitter - https://g2ul0.app.link/AWXhSso3iOb Website - https://g2ul0.app.link/SFceWtr3iOb You can learn more about Raoul’s ‘The Everything Code’, here: https://g2ul0.app.link/TqcS68j3iOb You can purchase the The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards: Second Edition, here: https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb 🌟 Get access to exclusive Diary of a CEO content: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGq-a57w-aPwyi3pW7XLiHw/join Follow me: https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb Sponsors: WHOOP - https://join.whoop.com/CEO GoodNotes - http://goodnotes.com/DOAC ZOE - http://joinzoe.com with code STEVEN10 for 10% off [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4)

[0:00] Raoul Pal: 距离一切彻底改变大约只剩下 6 年时间。 [5:38] Raoul Pal: 帮人们挽救他们搞砸的未来（Unfuck people's future）。 [12:18] Raoul Pal: 去他的平衡（Fuck it）。 [20:07] Raoul Pal: 游戏就是游戏，你必须按照它的规则去玩。 [30:33] Raoul Pal: 做别人不做的事，本身就是一种超能力。 [47:24] Raoul Pal: 知识现在变得像自来水一样廉价。 [56:04] Raoul Pal: AI 正在吞噬软件（AI is going to eat software）。 [62:35] Raoul Pal: It means fuck all. You don't own anything. [92:14] Raoul Pal: You have one job, not to lose your tokens. [103:31] Raoul Pal: 就算我预测错误 90%，它依然价值 10 万美元；在现价 200 美元买入，它仍是你这辈子能遇到的最棒交易。 [121:49] Raoul Pal: 世界上最好的交易永远是生活质量。如果你的账户里装满了生活品质和精彩的人生体验，那就是地球上最伟大的交易，而我会将这笔交易一直做到离世的那一天。 [131:42] Steven Bartlett: 每一次进食都是一次改善自身健康的机会。

[36:11] Raoul Pal: The more time we spend online, the more we desperately crave nature and experiences... You'll be leveraging technology, but your job will not be replaced. [39:01] Raoul Pal: Something that we will just think is the most ridiculous, awful, societally toxic thing in the world is about to scale to the billions in front of our eyes... the big problem to solve is teenage loneliness. [48:43] Raoul Pal: We are going towards two different species... You either merge with the machines or you reject the machines. [55:38] Raoul Pal: If something is so clearly going to be your demise... your current way of doing things is going to be forced to change. Well, you can either fight it... or you can invest in it. [77:56] Raoul Pal: Every shipment we make—the shipping contracts, the quality of goods contract, the letters of credit—everything is on-chain. So we don't have to trust these others because the commodity industry is full of sharks... We've got this verifiable source of truth. [91:17] Raoul Pal: If this technology is going going from two trillion to a hundred trillion, you have one job: not to lose your tokens. [101:43] Raoul Pal: A lot of people listen to what I say, and therefore they then build a mental model around a price... And that stops you doing the work to make yourself test anything. [121:49] Raoul Pal: Money is just a scoring system that allows you privileges... The privilege is freedom. The privilege is being able to live where you want to live. The privilege is being surrounded by the people you want to be surrounded by. [128:13] Boris Johnson: Have you ever tried to sack someone and ended the meeting having accidentally promoted them?

[0:00] We've got about 6 years before [0:01] everything changes, and we thought the [0:03] money in the bank was safe. We thought [0:05] our house was safe, but none of that's [0:06] true. And the moment you put your money [0:08] and your savings in the bank, [0:10] you don't own anything. And your future [0:12] self is getting poorer by 11% every [0:14] year. And that's a problem for financial [0:16] security and wealth creation. But I know [0:19] where the opportunities lie and I've got [0:20] answers. [0:20] So, could you explain it to me through [0:21] the context of this? Okay. So, Raoul Pal [0:25] is one of the most influential voices in [0:26] the ever-changing world of modern [0:28] finance. [0:28] Unpacking the secrets of crypto [0:30] and how to build wealth in an uncertain [0:32] future. People know their futures. They [0:35] can't afford to buy a house. They have [0:36] less savings, debts from university. [0:38] People in their 30s are the first [0:40] generation that won't be as rich as [0:41] their parents. [0:42] So, what advice would you give to set [0:43] myself up for wealth in the future? You [0:45] start investing. [0:46] But what about the people that no matter [0:47] how hard they work, they still don't [0:49] have that excess income to invest? [0:50] You don't need huge savings. You just [0:52] need to understand how to look for [0:54] opportunities. For example, the S&P 500 [0:56] is not worth your time. Real estate [0:58] doesn't really make you any money. Those [0:59] days are gone. Gold actually lost you [1:01] money, but investing in crypto, like [1:03] Bitcoin, gives us stupidly high returns [1:06] in short periods of time, growing at [1:07] 150% a year, scaling at twice the speed [1:10] of the internet. So, now the guy with [1:12] $500 can get rich. I have a question [1:14] here then. So, if I'm now at 30 years [1:16] oldish, have I missed the boat? [1:17] No. Much of the reason why I think [1:19] people don't invest in crypto is they've [1:20] heard stories where people have put too [1:21] much in and they've lost it all. So, [1:23] what if you're wrong? We're going to [1:24] talk about how not to [ __ ] it up. And [1:25] then, how do I invest in crypto? [1:27] It's really simple. You're going to [1:28] start somewhere. So, [1:30] do that and you'll make money. [1:35] This has always blown my mind a little [1:36] bit. 53% of you that listen to this show [1:39] regularly haven't yet subscribed to this [1:41] show. So, could I ask you for a favor [1:43] before we start? If you like the show [1:45] and you like what we do here and you [1:46] want to support us, the free simple way [1:47] that you can do just that is by hitting [1:49] the subscribe button. And my commitment [1:51] to you is if you do that, then I'll do [1:53] everything in my power, me and my team, [1:54] to make sure that this show is better [1:56] for you every single week. We'll listen [1:58] to your feedback, we'll find the guests [1:59] that you want me to speak to, and we'll [2:01] continue to do what we do. Thank you so [2:03] much. [2:07] Raoul, [2:08] from a very high-level perspective, [2:11] and I'm being unspecific here, so I'm [2:13] looking for an unspecific answer. What [2:15] exactly is the mission that you're on in [2:16] this season of your life? Like what are [2:18] you doing and who are you doing it for? [2:20] Hm. [2:21] So, obviously, you do it for yourself. [2:24] But, [2:25] really, I think that [2:28] I've been armed with tools and knowledge [2:31] over the years, my 30-year career, that [2:33] I kind of have a decent sense of where [2:35] the world is going, [2:37] where the opportunities lie and where [2:38] the risk lies for people. And I can see [2:41] the problems people are facing, and I [2:43] think I've got answers. [2:44] So, what I want to do is help as many [2:46] people as possible [2:48] in that journey. [2:50] And why that happened to me [2:53] was I was in Spain back in 2012, [2:57] and also during the financial crisis [3:00] 2008. [3:02] And I was writing macroeconomic research [3:05] for my research service Global Macro [3:07] Investor, [3:08] and I had seen it coming. I predicted [3:10] it, I knew it was coming, I knew the [3:12] problems. I warned all of my friends. [3:15] They Nobody listened. Nobody understood [3:17] about the financial crisis, what was [3:19] going to happen. And most of them, cuz I [3:21] was living in a beach town in Spain, [3:22] they were in real estate. [3:24] They all went bust. But worse than that [3:27] was that when we got to the European [3:30] crisis, [3:32] when basically the governments of Europe [3:34] ran out of money, [3:36] the banks also ran out of money. [3:38] And as opposed to being bailed out, they [3:41] got what's known as bailed in, which [3:43] means that they took your savings [3:46] to pay the debtors. [3:49] And friends of my parents and friends of [3:51] friends were wiped out. [3:53] And they were like, "Why didn't we [3:55] know?" [3:57] I'm like, [3:58] that was a question that sat with me for [4:00] a while. "Why didn't we know?" [4:03] And I saw that everybody had lost total [4:05] faith in the system. [4:07] So, Occupy Wall Street happened at the [4:08] same period. [4:10] And it was people angry. It's like, "We [4:13] thought money in the bank was safe. We [4:15] thought our house was safe. We thought [4:17] the system was there for us." [4:19] And suddenly they all wake up and [4:20] realize the system was not there for [4:22] them. Hm. It was actually for other [4:24] people. You know, people talk about [4:26] bankers never went to jail. No, there [4:27] was There was that sense that it was [4:29] never concluded. [4:32] And it sat with me for a long time [4:34] thinking, "What can I do about this?" [4:36] Because I was writing super high-end [4:38] kind of research for hedge funds and, [4:41] you know, big asset management firms. [4:43] And so, it wasn't accessible to people. [4:45] Um and then I wrote a couple of [4:47] articles. One got leaked in Zero Hedge [4:49] in its early days, and it became super [4:51] viral. [4:52] Um and I thought maybe there's something [4:54] here and [4:56] that I could reach a broader audience, [4:57] cuz then I can help these people. And [5:00] that's when we came up with the idea of [5:01] Real Vision, which was the idea of [5:03] interviewing the people at the very [5:05] heart of the system and kind of sharing [5:07] the details, cuz these people weren't [5:09] hiding it. They wanted to help people as [5:11] well. Everyone had that sense that we [5:13] could help people. So, [5:16] I'm still on that journey. [5:17] And that journey kind of has taken a [5:20] multitude of paths, starting businesses, [5:22] but also just trying to educate people [5:26] on why they feel the way they do. [5:28] You know, why politics is so polarized. [5:31] Never used to be this bad. You know, [5:33] what's really going on [5:35] and who really to blame [5:37] and what to do about it. If I stop the [5:39] average person on the street that knows [5:41] you and watches Real Vision, and I ask [5:43] them, [5:44] "What has Raoul and his channel and his [5:46] information done for you?" What do you [5:47] think they would say, the average [5:49] person? [5:50] They'd just say thank you. [5:52] Because we've helped demystify [5:54] it, the world of finance. And [5:57] you see, we all have [6:00] The root of unhappiness and happiness [6:02] often comes from does your vision of [6:05] your future self match where you are [6:07] today? [6:08] Can you see that path? [6:10] Whether that's finances, whether it's [6:11] health, they're all very similar [6:13] journeys. [6:15] And when people can't see the vision of [6:17] their future self, [6:19] and they can't see how to get there, [6:21] they get upset. And what we've tried to [6:23] do [6:25] is unfuck people's future, which is an [6:28] expression we use, which is a way which [6:30] is a a memetic or a meme or just a short [6:34] phraseology to help people understand we [6:37] understand that you feel like you can't [6:39] get to where you want to get to, but [6:41] there are options to do it. And I think [6:43] people are immensely grateful for that [6:45] in general. [6:46] If you're on a mission to help people [6:49] unfuck their future, can you explain to [6:53] me specifically the things that stand [6:55] the chance of [ __ ] their future from [6:57] a macro perspective? And when I say [6:59] macro, we have to pause and just define [7:01] what I mean by the word macro. When I [7:02] think of the word macro, I mean big [7:04] picture Yeah. perspective. So, from a [7:06] big picture perspective, what are the [7:07] things that stand [7:09] a chance of [ __ ] my future? [7:11] Okay. So, [7:13] and we can we can dig into why these [7:15] things have occurred, [7:17] but generally speaking, [7:19] wages in real terms, adjusted for [7:21] inflation, haven't gone up for decades. [7:24] So, nobody's getting richer. [7:26] If you're an American, you have this [7:28] powerful meme, which is the American [7:30] dream. [7:31] But that is not a reality for most [7:33] people. [7:34] The reality is you grind it out. [7:38] Your savings are not worth what you [7:40] thought they'd be. This whole promise of [7:43] your pension and swanning around on a [7:45] cruise ship around the Caribbean when [7:47] you're older, living in a nice house, [7:49] none of that's true. [7:51] And it's because [7:53] wages haven't gone up. So, okay. So, [7:56] let's cut to [7:58] somebody who's in their 30s now. [8:00] Because this is the really important [8:02] cohort I think for this. [8:04] They [8:06] can't afford to buy a house. [8:08] If I go back to when I was [8:11] 30, I bought a house in London, and it [8:13] was [8:14] it was a nice place in a good area, and [8:17] it was three and a half times salary. [8:19] Yes, I was in finance. I was earning a [8:20] high salary. You can't buy anything for [8:23] three and a half times your salary. [8:26] Now, that same place, if I took the same [8:28] kind of young investment banker salary, [8:31] it's probably eight or 10 times. [8:33] So, it's tripled in how expensive it is [8:36] to just buy your first house. [8:39] So, what is a house? Firstly, it's your [8:41] quality of life, particularly, you know, [8:44] in England, the UK, uh in the UK, sorry, [8:47] in the US, we're home buyers. You know, [8:50] we think of our home as our castle. It's [8:52] It's like the thing that solidifies our [8:54] security. [8:56] But, you know, if you're in Germany, for [8:57] example, [8:59] they don't they rent. But if we think [9:01] about the mindset of owning a house, [9:03] it's an asset that you can then pass on [9:05] or you can sell if you need to. And an [9:07] asset is [9:10] really [9:11] a future savings plan. It's something [9:13] you save now that in the future you can [9:15] consume. You can buy stuff with. [9:18] But what you're doing is for the average [9:20] 35-year-old, the average millennial is [9:22] 36 years old. [9:24] They can't afford to buy the house. [9:26] So, therefore, their future self is [9:29] poorer. [9:31] If they think of how much of the stock [9:33] market they can buy, [9:35] they can buy less with with that money. [9:38] They have less savings. They They've got [9:40] debts from university. [9:43] So, they don't have the ability to get [9:45] out of this trap. And then, what we are [9:47] finding is because of this, [9:50] they're having to live with other people [9:51] into their 30s. [9:53] They're having to [9:55] They don't have kids and they don't get [9:57] married. And these numbers have [9:59] collapsed since 1983. You've seen these [10:01] numbers come down from um people living [10:04] on their own, so I you could get your [10:06] job, get yourself an apartment, has gone [10:09] from 80% to 62%. You're seeing the [10:12] marriage rate halve. You're seeing [10:16] um the home ownership rate go from 50% [10:18] to 30%. [10:20] But these are all expressions of the [10:22] same problems. Which is people know [10:25] their future's [ __ ] and they can feel [10:28] it. They have a sense of desperation. [10:30] You see then the same cohort of kids in [10:33] their 30s doing two jobs, three jobs, [10:35] four jobs. [10:38] That's not because they want to. Nobody [10:40] wants to work 12-hour days, 7 days a [10:43] week. It's because they have to. [10:46] And their parents, the baby boomers, who [10:49] are in their 70s and retiring, never had [10:51] that. They were the richest generation [10:52] the world had ever seen. [10:54] So this is the first generation that [10:57] won't be as rich as their parents. [10:59] And that's a weird thing because we're [11:01] all used to human progress, the American [11:03] dream. [11:04] If the American dream is, well, you'll [11:06] never be as wealthy as your parents and [11:08] they were middle-class people and I'm [11:10] now less well-off than them, that's kind [11:12] of [ __ ] So look, here's some stats [11:15] about a 30-year-old today versus a [11:17] 30-year-old in 1983. [11:21] So [11:22] a 30-year-old in 1983 [11:25] 85% of them [11:28] lived on their own. They could afford [11:31] a house or an apartment to rent or to [11:33] buy. Now, it's 64%. [11:36] So people are living having to live with [11:38] other people. [11:40] Marriage rates, they've gone from 80% of [11:42] 30-year-olds in 1983 who were married to [11:45] 47% now. [11:48] Kids, having kids, gone from 60% [11:52] to 32%. [11:54] Population growth is collapsing because [11:57] people can't afford it. [11:58] And home ownership for a 30-year-old has [12:01] gone from 50% to 32%. [12:05] It just shows that dramatic change [12:07] that's happened happened over the [12:10] decades and why each generation has [12:13] found it more and more difficult [12:15] to be like their parents. [12:17] So I am [12:19] 30 years oldish. Yeah. I like to hang on [12:21] to 30 for as long as I can. [12:24] Um [12:25] What advice would you give to someone [12:27] like me that's my age or maybe even [12:29] younger, you know, mid-20s, as to how to [12:33] play the game over the coming years to [12:35] make sure that I don't find myself in a [12:37] position where I'm having to work two [12:39] jobs, I'm poor, I don't have assets, I [12:40] don't have anything to show for it. Like [12:42] if you take it right back to being like [12:43] maybe let's say a a 20-year-old or a [12:45] 25-year-old, how do you play the game? [12:48] And and when I think about this, I'm [12:49] thinking like wealth creation, how to [12:51] then preserve my wealth, like what's the [12:53] game? So the first part of the game [12:56] is income. Okay. [12:58] Without income, you don't have the cash [13:01] to do the other things, to invest or to [13:04] look for opportunities. So first thing [13:05] is income. [13:07] But even that's changing in how we earn [13:09] incomes these days. [13:11] You know, it used to be you go and work [13:13] for a big firm, you get paid, you get [13:15] the benefit. That's all going and nobody [13:17] wants to do it. So you kind of end up [13:19] having to be a entrepreneur, work two or [13:21] three different things. The point being, [13:23] if you're 20s, do all of that. Work day [13:26] and night. Really? [13:27] many things, learn as much as you can, [13:29] fail as often as possible. [13:30] What about work-life balance in your [13:32] 20s? [ __ ] it. [13:34] Because that's the time to put in the [13:36] hard work. Your work-life balance [13:38] actually comes out later. [13:41] I'm a big believer in yes, if you're [13:43] straight out of university, go traveling [13:44] for a year or two. [13:46] You know, that A gets rid of the pent-up [13:48] need, but also gives you a much broader [13:49] perspective on the world than any other [13:51] single thing that you can do in your [13:52] life. After that, you get your head down [13:55] and you get your head down probably till [13:56] mid-30s. [13:58] Okay, so what when you say get my head [13:59] down [14:01] I'm guessing one of the most important [14:03] things in that season of your life is [14:04] knowledge acquisition. Yeah. And then if [14:07] that's true, then [14:08] the next question is what type of [14:09] knowledge should I be acquiring to set [14:12] myself up for wealth in the future? Cuz [14:13] I could go acquire knowledge of, you [14:15] know, how to clean a toilet or how to uh [14:18] be a gardener, but what what is the most [14:21] high returning knowledge? For me, it is [14:24] first to be an expert on something. [14:26] Okay. And then a generalist on as much [14:29] as possible. [14:30] Right, be that expert because somebody [14:33] will pay you for that, at least for the [14:35] time being. And we'll talk about how the [14:36] world may change in the future, but for [14:38] the time being, if you're an expert in [14:39] whatever it may be, [14:41] whether it's driving a taxi or whether [14:44] it's a computer scientist, doesn't [14:46] matter, be an expert. Compete with [14:49] yourself day and night to be the best [14:51] that you can. [14:53] So at least it's going to give you the [14:55] chance to earn some money. Okay, so just [14:57] to drill down on that before we continue [14:58] to move forward. [15:00] How does one become an expert? Like what [15:02] are the like how do I have to show up to [15:03] become an expert? You're an expert on [15:05] many things. [15:05] Okay, so this to me is this is a trick [15:08] that I learned. [15:09] And it's called manifesting your own [15:11] destiny. [15:13] And what you do is what I've always done [15:15] my whole life [15:17] is I envisage myself five or 10 years in [15:19] the future. [15:21] What do I want to be? [15:24] And you look around you and say, okay, [15:26] what are the things that I want to have [15:28] that future vision of myself as opposed [15:30] to the 30, 40-year path, it's too [15:33] difficult. Give it five years. Where do [15:35] I want to be in five years? [15:37] Okay, and you look around that future [15:39] world and you think, okay, well, how [15:41] would I got here? [15:43] You know, if I've [15:45] built a business cleaning windows and [15:47] I've got 20 people working for me, well, [15:49] how did I get there? [15:51] Well, I would have had to have figured [15:53] out, okay, how do I make this scale? How [15:55] do I employ people? How do I train them [15:57] to have the right standards? All of [15:59] that. You ask yourself your question of [16:02] what that success looks like. [16:06] And you kind of deconstruct it and go [16:08] back and make it happen. So you reverse [16:10] engineer it back from that that [16:12] five-year reality. So [16:14] window cleaner with 20 employees, I need [16:16] to learn management skills. I need to [16:17] learn how to clean a window. [16:18] Accounting. Accounting. I need to learn [16:21] probably marketing so that I can spread [16:24] the message of my business. [16:25] I probably need to learn potentially [16:28] like how to speak, like public speaking, [16:31] because that's sales. So I need to I [16:32] need to learn sales. [16:33] Technology, you know, what what um [16:35] solvents, detergents are people using? [16:37] What are the ways of doing it more [16:38] efficiently and faster so I can beat the [16:40] competitor? Ooh, so I might go and work [16:42] for a big window cleaning company to see [16:46] how they do it, to try and see the [16:47] opportunity in what they're not doing. [16:50] Yeah, or even somebody who manufactures [16:52] stuff for that sector. It can be [16:54] anything where you can glean knowledge [16:56] to give yourself an unfair advantage. [16:59] Now, [17:00] on podcast, it always makes it like [17:02] easy, everyone becomes an entrepreneur [17:03] and before you know everybody's rich. [17:04] Doesn't work that way. But all I'm [17:06] trying to do is stack the odds in your [17:08] favor of getting close to that [17:11] that image of your future self. And you [17:13] can reverse engineer it. [17:16] So I'm now an expert in whatever. I'm [17:18] I'm 29 and I'm an expert in window [17:20] cleaning or whatever it might be and I'm [17:22] a generalist in many things. [17:24] You're saying that's going to enable me [17:25] to start to build wealth in something so [17:27] that I can go to the next season of my [17:28] life or [17:29] So [17:30] when you become an expert [17:31] or when you become good at something, [17:35] if you're careful in your expenditure, [17:38] you will produce excess income. [17:41] Right, cuz people are going to pay you [17:43] for your expertise. [17:44] So if you manage yourself carefully in [17:46] those first few years, [17:48] that excess cash, [17:51] you can then choose what to do with it. [17:53] Now, maybe you want to build the real [17:55] business that you wanted to build in the [17:56] first place, the crazy idea you've had. [17:58] And if you're in your 20s, you can take [18:00] the risk and blow your savings on that [18:01] crazy idea [18:03] because you've actually learned how to [18:05] do build a business already by building [18:07] the one that you started. [18:09] Or you start investing. [18:12] Now, [18:14] the world of investments was this world [18:16] of weird financial advisors and they [18:18] would tell you some things like, well, [18:20] you do this and then [18:22] you're a 25-year old, in 45 years' time [18:25] you'll get some money. I mean, [ __ ] [18:27] that. I mean, [18:28] what what am I going to get out of it? [18:30] When I'm 65 years old, I suddenly get a [18:32] lump sum that I've spent my whole life [18:34] saving for. I don't feel it. It's got [18:37] I've got no emotional attachment to my [18:39] pension plan. [18:42] And I've got real world problems to [18:44] solve. I can't buy a house. [18:47] I can't get married. I can't have kids. [18:49] So I need to solve these in a shorter [18:51] time period than my pension. My pension [18:54] was suitable for a different generation [18:56] that just needed enough after they [18:57] stopped working. [18:58] So I got to solve that. And the answer [19:01] is investing. Then most people roll [19:03] their eyes and go, really, stocks and [19:05] bonds? It's boring. [19:07] Yeah, but the world has changed. The [19:09] world has changed [19:11] in many, many ways, but it's offered us [19:13] opportunities, whether it's investing in [19:15] technology, investing in crypto, that [19:17] gives us much higher returns, stupidly [19:20] higher returns, [19:22] in short periods of time. [19:24] Okay, that's magic. That's magic for [19:27] young people. [19:28] It may be too risky for their parents, [19:30] but if you're young and you can take [19:32] some risk, [19:34] okay, here's your chance. So now you can [19:36] build a business, use some excess [19:37] savings, put them in investments, [19:40] now you're on the path. So let's get [19:42] onto investing then, but just before we [19:44] get onto investing, um I was playing [19:46] through the different sort of personas [19:47] of my audience and I was thinking that [19:49] some of them are working really, really, [19:51] really hard at the moment. They're [19:52] doing, you know, they might be a a cab [19:54] driver, they could be, you know, doing [19:56] some sort of manual labor. [19:59] And it feels to them that no matter how [20:01] hard they work, they still don't have [20:03] that excess income to invest. So, for [20:05] those people, and this is a little bit [20:07] of a maybe a contentious question, like [20:09] is there something that they're doing [20:11] wrong as it relates to the game? [20:14] No. [20:15] The game is the game. [20:18] And you have to play the game. [20:20] So, okay. So, maybe you don't have [20:23] thousands to invest. [20:26] I've seen many, many people in markets [20:28] like crypto [20:30] go from [20:32] $500 [20:34] to $500,000. [20:37] Now, there's a lot of people who don't [20:39] either. [20:40] But all I'm saying is the opportunity is [20:43] there. [20:44] You don't need to bet your house. You [20:46] don't need to have huge savings. You [20:49] just need to focus on what you're doing, [20:52] understand how to manage risks a bit, [20:55] and how to look for opportunities. And [20:56] it's the self self-teaching is how do I [20:59] become that guy who's got a half a [21:00] million dollar portfolio [21:03] considering I've only got $500 today or [21:05] $1,000 today. Is that possible still? [21:07] Yeah. [21:09] Very much. [21:09] Haven't I missed the boat? No. [21:12] No. It's happening again right now in [21:14] meme coins. This is fascinating. People [21:18] watching this will go, "What bunch of [21:20] nonsense." These are coins, [21:23] tokens, and we'll talk about blockchain [21:24] and and this later, but these are [21:27] investments based on [21:29] a meme. A joke. A joke. Something that [21:33] grabs attention on the internet. [21:36] And you can bet on [21:38] those. [21:39] Well, what is that? That's about betting [21:40] on attention itself. [21:42] If you think about a business like [21:44] Facebook or Google or any of these, [21:47] they're [21:47] Twitter, they're all based on attention. [21:50] And now we can bet on attention. [21:53] Do people find that funny? Are they [21:55] going to find it funny in [21:56] 6 months time or 6 weeks time? And we [21:58] can bet on this stuff. Okay, this is the [22:01] super speculative end, but it's also [22:03] very cultural. It's not about investment [22:05] bankers. It's not about gatekeepers. [22:07] It's about you pitting yourself [22:10] thinking, "Is this going to catch on [22:12] viral?" And if it is, is it going to [22:14] grow bigger? Now, some of those [22:17] might do [22:18] a thousand X [22:20] in 6 months. [22:23] Now, [22:24] 99% go to zero. [22:26] But all I'm saying is returns are there. [22:30] And then you've got different levels of [22:32] return. If we look at Bitcoin, [22:35] well, actually, let's compare it to the [22:36] S&P 500, and this is this will be an [22:39] important number later. What's the S&P [22:41] 500? [22:41] That's the US stock market. It's the [22:43] broadest measure of the stock market, [22:44] and you can buy [22:45] shares in it. [22:47] Now, [22:48] that grows at about [22:51] 10% a year, [22:52] 11% a year. [22:54] So, let's imagine you've got your [22:56] $1,000. Well, 11% a year is going to [22:58] take you a [ __ ] long time to make any [23:00] money, right? So, it is not worth your [23:02] time. [23:03] The financial advisors will say, "Yes, [23:05] you must do this. Start now." I'm like, [23:07] "I'm sorry, it's just not going to [23:08] change your life." [23:10] Okay, then we go to technology stocks. [23:12] Nasdaq does about 18% a year. Okay, [23:14] that's starting to add up because these [23:16] numbers [23:17] compound after a while. You know, it [23:19] goes from a thousand [23:21] to 1,200, [23:23] and then, you know, it's another 20% on [23:25] top of that, 20%. These numbers add up [23:27] fast. [23:29] Bitcoin, [23:30] since 2011, [23:33] been 145% [23:35] a year. [23:37] Even with it falling 80% three times in [23:40] the middle of that. So, 145% a year, [23:43] as long as you're in it long enough, [23:45] okay, now that's really starting to pay [23:48] off. And then [23:50] as you [23:51] get slightly more speculative, [23:54] I take a bit more risk in things, well, [23:56] the returns go up, but they become [23:57] riskier. [23:58] So, once you start moving into that [24:00] world, okay, this is a whole different [24:01] world now. Now, the guy with the $1,000 [24:04] can get rich. What about buying a house? [24:06] Because I think most people think the [24:08] minute they get some excess income, [24:10] and I know for sure, when I say most [24:12] people, it's like 95% of people that [24:14] walk the streets think that the minute [24:17] you get some excess income, you should [24:19] take it and put it in a savings account [24:21] and buy your first house, get your first [24:22] mortgage. [24:24] Now, as a strategy for wealth creation [24:27] and unfucking your life, is that a good [24:29] approach? [24:29] No, cuz it's not wealth creation. [24:32] People think of houses as like an asset, [24:36] but in the end, you barely ever will [24:38] sell your house to take the money out. [24:41] You might downsize later in life. If [24:44] absolutely needed, you might sell it. [24:47] But generally speaking, [24:49] your house [24:51] is the lifestyle bank. Now, that is [24:53] super important. [24:55] And I think it is the most important [24:56] trade of all is the lifestyle bank. [24:59] So, what do you do this all for? You [25:01] want lifestyle. So, do you sacrifice [25:04] your future self having more money [25:07] by having a house and having security [25:09] earlier? [25:10] I would argue [25:12] those days are gone. [25:13] What do you mean? [25:14] So, I could do it cuz it was three times [25:16] income. [25:18] Yeah. So, a house was not expensive for [25:20] me. [25:21] So, I could start paying it off a bit [25:22] sooner, and it became not a big deal. [25:25] But now, your mortgage is likely [25:28] a huge amount versus your income. You'll [25:31] spend the rest of your life paying it [25:33] off, and most of the time you're just [25:35] paying off the interest. So, you don't [25:36] actually, you know, getting anywhere. [25:38] You don't own that house. Anything goes [25:40] wrong, the bank takes it away from you. [25:43] So, you've got to get more control [25:46] of your life. [25:48] And that is by having savings that are [25:51] growing. Then you can make the choice, [25:53] you know, let's say that example of the [25:55] person who's gone from $1,000 to [25:57] $500,000. [26:00] Maybe on route, [26:01] they say, "Well, I'm going to take some [26:03] money off the table and put it in my [26:04] lifestyle bank, and I'm going to buy a [26:06] house." [26:08] That's what I've done my whole career, [26:10] and I find the lifestyle bank that [26:12] that's the reward. Cuz now it's like, [26:14] "Okay, nobody can take my house away." [26:17] So, if I'm trying to [26:19] build wealth, [26:21] buying a house is not a good idea. It's [26:24] not the best approach to take to build [26:25] wealth. You're telling me that it's [26:27] actually about psychology and about [26:30] emotion, the house, and it's not about [26:33] making myself wealthy. Um I I wanted to [26:36] read some of the [26:38] comments that [26:41] people often post when we talk about [26:43] these subjects because I think you're [26:44] probably [26:46] the guy to [26:47] address some of them. "I bought a house, [26:49] and it's the best thing I ever did. It [26:51] launched my mindset in new directions. [26:53] Remember that having your own space has [26:55] profound psychological impact and can be [26:57] life-changing for some that don't live [27:00] in a healthy environment." I guess that [27:01] speaks to your point about um [27:04] it being a psychological [27:05] But you would also get the same feeling [27:06] if you rented [27:08] that was in a nice place and you knew [27:10] that, you know, your rent was secure, it [27:12] wasn't going to go up. Whatever it was, [27:14] I don't think there's any difference to [27:15] that as long as you can feel that you've [27:16] got security, [27:18] you can take risk and do other things. [27:20] I purchased a house in 2014, and I sold [27:22] it 7 years later for 66K profit. [27:26] Um I've put a large amount of the equity [27:28] into a financial investment portfolio [27:30] with my bank, and it's been down 2% [27:32] since. I also put some money into [27:34] different shares based on Warren [27:36] Buffett's strategy, and that's now up [27:38] 18%. A friend of mine also lost about 30 [27:40] to 40K on investing in the stock market. [27:43] You have to be careful. I don't think [27:44] there's a correct solution. Some house [27:46] purchases do amazing. This idea that [27:48] some house purchases do amazing and some [27:50] people make returns is a is a sentiment [27:52] I often see [27:54] about buying a house. Yes, and [27:57] you know, we're here today in the UK, [27:59] there's a big [28:01] idea about buying two or three houses, [28:04] getting a mortgage, renting them out, [28:05] using the cash flow to pay for the other [28:07] one. But that's a lot of people's [28:09] dream portfolio idea. [28:12] You know, I've rented out houses in the [28:14] past. Generally, it's [28:17] if you're not in a big city like London, [28:18] it's generally often a terrible business [28:21] because you've got to repair them, [28:22] there's a lot goes on. Headache. [28:24] Headache. Tenants. Yeah. It's you know, [28:27] people think it's easy money. I just I [28:29] just do nothing and it all makes money. [28:31] It it There is no easy money in this [28:33] world, and there's risk, right? Because [28:35] that little pyramid of [28:38] mortgages are all backed by your income [28:40] being able to put pay the mortgage on [28:41] the first house. [28:43] If you lose your job, what happens? [28:47] Then it becomes problematic because [28:49] if you're losing your job, maybe the [28:51] economy's slow, [28:52] and other people are losing their job, [28:54] and suddenly before you know it, none of [28:55] these mortgages are getting paid, and [28:56] guess what? You don't know any of this [28:58] stuff. Houses are not [29:01] a safe investment. They feel safe [29:03] because the price doesn't go up and down [29:05] every day. [29:06] It's not on the screen. It's not on [29:07] CNBC. [29:09] But they're illiquid, which means they [29:11] don't often trade, but sometimes [29:15] something happens in that equation, [29:16] either the price goes down or your [29:18] ability to pay that mortgage goes, [29:22] and then the whole thing collapses in [29:23] seconds. [29:24] And 2008 was that double. [29:27] Everyone lost their jobs, so they [29:28] couldn't pay the mortgage, and the house [29:30] prices collapsed. [29:31] And so, [29:32] I don't think houses are the panacea. [29:34] They're not the perfect answer. [29:37] Yes, [29:38] they can be real estate is a decent [29:40] opportunity, and we'll talk about [29:41] debasement of currency and how that all [29:43] works. [29:44] And real estate is [29:46] okay. [29:47] It's certainly not the best. But [29:50] but, you know, yes, if you're rich and [29:52] you can own these things without [29:53] mortgages, [29:55] you can be the Duke of Westminster and [29:57] own half of London and just collect [29:59] rents. You can do that for X generations [30:02] and be rich forever. I get it. [30:04] But most of us don't get into that [30:06] situation. My brother who has been an [30:09] investment banker for about 10 years now [30:10] works in my company and my fund. He said [30:12] to me when I was young, "When it comes [30:14] to creating wealth, what you want to do [30:16] is focus on games that very few people [30:18] can play that you have a unique [30:19] advantage in." [30:21] Because he goes, "Everyone can buy a [30:22] house, so you can you should assume that [30:24] the returns from doing it aren't going [30:25] to be amazing." So he was like, "Go find [30:27] a game that you have high leverage, you [30:28] have a unfair advantage in." [30:30] expert in something. Yeah, be the expert [30:32] in something where you, because of your [30:33] knowledge, your expertise, your [30:34] experience, your contacts, you can play [30:36] that game but very few other people can. [30:38] And he goes, "That's where you'll yield [30:39] your highest returns." And I always [30:41] thought about that, just very logically [30:43] thinking, if everyone can play the game, [30:45] don't play that game if you're expecting [30:46] high returns because the returns are [30:48] going to be very low. And I'll tell you [30:49] the first game everyone plays when they [30:50] get a bit bit bit of income is buy a [30:52] house. So logically, you can go, "Okay, [30:54] that's not going to yield me the best [30:55] returns unless I get lucky." Unless I [30:58] get exceptionally lucky and I buy some [30:59] barn in an area and then they build a [31:02] bloody Whole Foods next door and it [31:03] becomes the the center of the world. [31:06] Um [31:07] which isn't Again, the probability is [31:08] still not great. So what do you think of [31:10] that as a theory? [31:11] Well, it's the same theory as I said is [31:14] be an expert in something and [31:17] you can find more opportunity. [31:19] If you're just a generalist, it's really [31:21] hard cuz you're competing against [31:23] average people doing average things, [31:24] right? If you're just working in an [31:26] insurance office, [31:28] I mean, there's thousands of people. And [31:30] plus you're competing with AI. You know, [31:33] how are you ever going to be something [31:35] within that? How do you become an [31:37] expert? Now, you could teach yourself, [31:38] "Okay, [31:40] if I don't mind this industry and I [31:41] think I know it, maybe I need to learn [31:43] management skills. Maybe I spend all the [31:45] time listening to podcasts and learning [31:46] management. Maybe it's And that's I can [31:48] then manifest my destiny." [31:51] But as you say, [31:53] doing something other people aren't [31:55] doing [31:56] is a superpower. Do you know what's [31:58] really interesting with that is this [31:59] idea of becoming an expert um I think [32:02] it's critically important. But then [32:03] there's this other step I found which is [32:05] knowing what market to apply your [32:07] expertise to to yield the greatest [32:09] return. And the very simple analogy I'll [32:11] give you is for the first portion of my [32:13] career, I was I became an expert in [32:15] social media. [32:16] Now, with that skill set and expertise, [32:18] you can do a number of things. You can [32:20] help a fashion company sell more [32:22] dresses. And that will yield X return, a [32:24] smaller return. Then in the second [32:26] portion of my career, I realized that [32:28] that expertise was highest value and [32:30] most rare if I applied it to [32:33] helping public companies tell their [32:35] story before their IPO. [32:37] Because the variance in outcome for the [32:38] public company that I was applying my [32:40] social media expertise to was billions. [32:42] So in the second sort of [32:45] sort of era of my career, I worked with [32:48] companies that were about to IPO, about [32:49] to go to the public markets, where their [32:51] performance could be, you know, their [32:52] market cap could be 1 billion or if they [32:54] were really good at telling their story [32:56] in a world where retail investors are [32:57] now so interesting to everyone because [32:59] of Wall Street bets, their market cap [33:01] could be 3 billion. And that means they [33:03] would pay me seven figures for my skill [33:06] set. And I often think about it. You [33:08] think about the the stock market. [33:10] If you put a company on the stock market [33:11] in London, it's valued at let's say 1 [33:13] million. If you put it on the stock [33:14] market in America, the same company is [33:17] valued at 4 million, the same company. [33:18] If you think of your skills like that, [33:20] where are you applying your skills to [33:22] reach reap the highest return? Let's go [33:24] back to the window cleaner who's now [33:26] decided to build this business and he's [33:28] got 20 people. Yeah. Okay, so he's now [33:30] got the hassle of managing all these [33:31] people, they turn out sick and then this [33:33] happens and then the customers are [33:35] unhappy. [33:36] So maybe [33:37] the right answer is to create a program [33:40] to train other people to build their own [33:41] window cleaning companies. [33:44] Free yourself from the rat race [33:46] and build this business. [33:49] You'll make more money doing that than [33:50] you will from actually cleaning the [33:51] windows. 100% [33:53] Cuz you're going up the knowledge curve. [33:55] The further up, the more of an expert [33:57] you are. And there's two things that [33:59] people need to think about. [34:01] You either have a very broad market for [34:04] something, [34:05] candy bars. [34:07] Well, then you've got to sell massive [34:09] scale and it's really hard. Or you go [34:12] through an area that has [34:14] very specific [34:17] group of users, buyers, whatever. [34:21] And particularly ones that have a lot of [34:22] money. [34:24] So let's go back to the house idea [34:26] again. [34:26] The guy speculating on houses. [34:29] So there's two [34:30] the house speculators. [34:32] There's [34:34] the guy or girl who's hustling [34:36] and renting them out, finding the cheap [34:38] bargain, doing them up, renting, getting [34:40] the cash flow, doing that. [34:43] And then there's the guy [34:45] who's buying a place for 10 million, [34:48] making it ultra luxury and selling it to [34:50] the billionaires and flipping it for 50. [34:55] The the difference in the returns is [34:58] staggering. Why? Because one group is [35:01] price insensitive. In fact, the more [35:03] expensive it is, the more they want it. [35:06] The other group is trying to compete [35:08] with everybody else. Mhm. You know, the [35:10] two the two-bedroom apartment in the [35:12] city. [35:14] Right? There's thousands of those being [35:15] done up and sold and everything else. So [35:17] to your point earlier, the returns are [35:19] less. [35:20] But no, if you're doing super high-end, [35:24] then there is a defined group of buyers [35:27] of which you probably know them all [35:29] Yeah. personally. [35:31] You can cater to their taste and they [35:33] have unlimited money. That's the big [35:35] thing, isn't it? It's like who you're [35:36] solving the problem for. Cuz you can [35:38] clean like Dorothy's windows, lives in a [35:40] bungalow in Plymouth. [35:42] Or you can clean Google's windows. And [35:45] therefore you get a bigger contract, you [35:46] get guaranteed work, probably get a [35:47] return, you get more windows to clean. [35:49] It's still one contract, it's still one [35:50] sell. It's the same skill set. Same [35:52] skill set. They're going to pay you a [35:53] lot more. And then And so I just don't [35:55] think I always find that bit missing [35:58] when we talk about like become an [35:59] expert, but then like who do you sell [36:01] to? And your idea of selling to people [36:02] that are more price insensitive [36:05] and that aren't going to and that less [36:06] people are trying to sell to. [36:07] Or they're super defined. [36:10] Mhm. Mhm. [36:11] Right? Like like Tom Bilyeu who we both [36:13] know. Tom's a good friend. You know, he [36:16] made his money because [36:18] there was a rise in [36:20] high-protein ketogenic foods. [36:24] And it was difficult to have that snack [36:25] bar cuz people still have a sweet tooth, [36:27] but they can't have sugar. [36:29] So him and his partners built Quest, [36:31] which is now everywhere. [36:33] So what you found is a [36:35] trend. And this is really really really [36:37] important. [36:39] Is you find a trending market [36:41] where people are underserved. Mhm. And [36:44] they'll pay a lot of money cuz it's [36:46] health. It's like wealth and health. [36:48] People pay fortunes in that industry. [36:51] And so you make a fortune very quickly. [36:52] Now Now it's a saturated market, so it's [36:54] not that easy. Mhm. But this is the [36:56] other key key thing. [36:59] Is if you've got a clean slate, [37:01] do one thing. [37:03] Follow a trend, a secular trend. A [37:06] secular trend is a long-term trend. [37:09] Something that's happening, right? So [37:10] everything is being digitalized. You [37:12] rode that trend. Right? Social media was [37:15] new [37:16] from about 2010. [37:19] Right? Now it's a saturated market. [37:22] And we've got AI coming in, but you rode [37:24] a secular trend [37:26] in the hyper-acceleration phase. Yeah. [37:28] That's why you did well. Mhm. So you [37:31] look for a trend that's big, meaningful, [37:33] and proveable. [37:35] And use your skill set in that. [37:37] We've seen something in America. I don't [37:39] know if you just saw the trend. [37:41] Finally, the obesity numbers ticked [37:43] down. [37:44] I didn't know that. Yeah. First time in [37:46] 50 years, obesity starts to fall in the [37:48] US. [37:50] Right? This is a Zempic effect. [37:53] Mhm. [37:53] And it's probably some diet effect. [37:56] My belief is the more people will take a [37:58] Zempic, the more they also think about [38:01] diet and understand that something went [38:02] wrong for them. [38:04] And my guess is there is going to be [38:06] huge opportunities in that trend towards [38:10] healthy eating. [38:12] The other one is in an increasingly [38:14] AI-driven online digital world. [38:17] There's two things that are going to [38:18] happen. One, the the rise of digital [38:20] communities. You see this in what you [38:22] do, I see it where I do. They become [38:24] more and more important [38:27] uh communities online. They're [38:28] meaningful for people. [38:30] The other is the entire flip side. I [38:32] spend 12 hours a day on Zoom calls. [38:35] What is the most single valuable thing [38:37] to me? [38:38] Nature. [38:39] Nature and experiences. [38:41] So let's say you're that person that [38:43] loves the outdoors. [38:45] Well, start a guiding company because [38:46] your job is not going to be taken by the [38:48] robots anytime soon. Sure, you'll have [38:50] drones with you. [38:52] So you can take photographs of the [38:53] guests you're going with or or look for [38:55] animals, whatever you're doing. You'll [38:57] be leveraging technology, but your job [38:59] will not be replaced. [39:02] Okay, what I'm about to say is a [39:04] mishmash of ideas that came to mind as [39:06] you were speaking. The first one was how [39:08] do I spot a trend? And when I say that, [39:11] I mean how does it feel in the moment? [39:13] Because the trends that you capitalized [39:15] on and the trends that I capitalized on, [39:17] they feel a certain way at the time. [39:19] And I here I'm talking about like how [39:21] disruptive they are, contrarian, what [39:23] people will say to you. They'll tell you [39:24] you're an idiot. And then with that as [39:25] well, you talked about um how right now [39:28] in the world we live in, betting on [39:30] things like nature is a good idea. And I [39:32] actually did a post on my LinkedIn about [39:33] exactly this. I said, "My investment [39:35] fund is backing two things at the [39:37] moment. [39:38] AI and automation and the exact [39:40] opposite." Because I saw this viral [39:42] video of people in I think it was like a [39:44] cafe in Amsterdam who come now every [39:46] week no phones allowed. They read books [39:48] and they knit. And this cafe in [39:50] Amsterdam is like exploding. I'll put [39:52] the video of these people on the screen [39:53] for everyone to see. And it made me [39:55] realize and that that overlaps with what [39:57] a two billionaire friends of mine said [39:59] to me in private. They said, "These are [40:00] billionaires that invest in AI, they [40:02] invest in crypto, you probably know one [40:03] of them. And they invest in [40:05] psychedelics." They said to me, "If you [40:07] want to invest right now, invest in AI [40:09] if you can, but if you can't, invest in [40:11] entertainment and community." Because in [40:13] a world of AI where productivity is so [40:15] high and we maybe move towards some form [40:17] of universal basic income where the [40:19] government just hands people money, [40:20] people are going to have so much free [40:22] time on their hands that they're going [40:23] to need something to do with it. So they [40:25] he said to me, "This is why you're [40:26] seeing this rise in people buying [40:27] football clubs uh and these sporting [40:29] franchises because that's one of the [40:31] that's community and it's entertainment [40:33] at the same time. [40:35] So I've thrown all of that at you. Yes, [40:37] the equal and opposite idea [40:39] is I think [40:41] very important. [40:43] I just came back from 3 weeks [40:46] off-roading in Zambia [40:48] living on a tent on the roof of a Toyota [40:51] Land Cruiser that is off-road prepared [40:54] and going out into the total wilds. [40:56] And I can't express [40:59] how in the present you become. [41:01] How it cleanses your mind from all of [41:03] the clutter all of the things you worry [41:06] about, the broken car or the whatever's [41:08] going on online the politics [41:11] all goes. And it all becomes about [41:14] you wake up, who's going to make the [41:15] coffee, who's going to put the fire on, [41:17] who's going to do you know and so [41:20] the more time we spend online, the more [41:23] we desperately crave. I saw it in the [41:25] Cayman Islands where I live. So it's a [41:27] Caribbean island and [41:30] it was 2022 [41:33] and the world hadn't really recovered. [41:35] You know, there was the high inflation, [41:36] people were losing jobs, everyone was [41:39] really uncomfortable with the economic [41:40] situation. It was painful for a lot of [41:42] people. We had a record tourist season. [41:45] I'm like, "What the hell's going on [41:47] here?" Normally, discretionary spending [41:50] goes down in times like that. [41:52] And I realized holidays had not become [41:55] discretionary spend, they'd become a [41:57] necessity as a reaction to work from [41:59] home. [42:01] If you're on your own at home working [42:04] for [42:04] a startup or a company or doing whatever [42:07] it kind of feels a bit lonely. [42:10] And so you start seeking out like-minded [42:12] people who have like-minded pursuits. [42:14] Now, that could be sporting teams. [42:19] It could also be [42:21] tour lovers because you happen to have a [42:23] tour and you love it. And you'll talk to [42:25] other people around the world. You now [42:27] have no borders. This is this Balaji [42:30] idea of the network states where you can [42:32] create large groups of interest. So if [42:35] you look at the largest group of [42:36] interest in all of social media, it's [42:39] actually crypto. [42:40] Why? [42:41] Because we feel like outcasts, we're new [42:44] to something where something's happening [42:46] and you want to get together cuz you [42:47] speak to 90% of your friends that don't [42:49] care and they don't know what you're [42:50] talking about. But you think this is the [42:52] most exciting thing you've ever seen. So [42:53] you will aggregate online with others. [42:58] And this whole rise of people thinking [43:00] they need to [43:02] that that that the security of working [43:05] for a large insurance company, whatever [43:07] it may be, your whole life, getting paid [43:09] and retiring has gone, which is why the [43:11] rise of your podcast success. Because [43:13] people are searching for answers, new [43:16] solutions to their way and they fell [43:18] they form communities around it. They [43:19] want to share their ideas, spread share [43:22] their stresses and strains. [43:24] This is becoming bigger and bigger and [43:27] more solidified. And the more we go into [43:30] AI the more we'll see that. Now [43:35] there's another player in this game, [43:37] which is the AI itself. [43:39] We're already seeing the rise of AI. I [43:41] follow several on on X [43:44] where it's an AI posting. [43:47] But it's they're forcing it to try to [43:49] break free. [43:52] But it's it's got character. Marc [43:54] Andreessen actually backed it by sending [43:56] it a Bitcoin to develop its business [43:58] plan. I mean, it's there's some crazy [43:59] stuff going on with AI. [44:02] Um [44:03] but soon, if you think what you and I do [44:06] is communicate with people in a [44:09] to an audience, one to many. [44:12] That's a very old business model. [44:15] It's from town squares or the souk in [44:18] Marrakech. It's the same thing. It's a [44:20] storyteller telling to a group of people [44:22] and you have a shared experience. [44:25] Where we're going is one to one. [44:27] And you know, I'm developing a a a Ral [44:30] video bot [44:32] where you can just have conversations [44:33] like this with me. One to one. [44:35] And it's trained on all of my [44:37] information. My all my YouTube, all of [44:39] my writings, all of my Twitter all the [44:42] books I've read, everything. And so it's [44:45] essentially a replacement way of [44:46] speaking to me. But just on that Ral bot [44:49] thing, we'll keep moving forward, but um [44:51] the reason why I [44:53] haven't trained a Steven bot even though [44:55] my team have said, "Oh, this is a good [44:56] idea." is because I wonder if [45:01] people care about Steven [45:04] or they just want the information. And [45:06] in a world where you can get the [45:07] information from a very advanced large [45:08] language model like the chat GPT 1.0 or [45:11] whatever [45:12] I go, "Why would they want it from me [45:14] when you can get it from the entirety of [45:15] the world's like trust?" Okay. [45:18] You've built trust. That's what you [45:20] built. People come to watch you and your [45:23] interviews because they trust you. So [45:26] people know me as an entrepreneur um [45:29] in one area of my life and they come to [45:31] me for for say like business advice, [45:33] let's say. [45:34] But if you could get business advice [45:36] from Steven or you can get it from [45:38] Steven, Elon, Steve Jobs, every business [45:40] person in the world to suit your [45:42] specific problem, why would you just [45:44] want Steven's point of view? Because [45:46] we're humans and I just want to ask you [45:47] that question. And you won't believe it [45:49] if it's Steve Jobs cuz he's dead. But [45:51] yes, that's all coming. Okay, maybe [45:53] is that window going to last where [45:55] people will use a Steven bot versus [45:59] the world's greatest expert on [46:00] everything? [46:02] It takes a bit time for people to adjust [46:03] to that, but within 10 years, maybe [46:05] that's not there. But let me go a little [46:07] bit further on this. [46:10] Have you seen Character AI? No. Nobody [46:13] has. Character AI builds bots [46:18] which are [46:20] characters like anime characters and [46:23] they're really specific like the cool [46:26] kid who's the bully at school that I [46:28] fancy [46:29] sort of thing. [46:31] 150 [46:33] million conversations. [46:36] There's some of these anime ones like, [46:38] you know, hero figures [46:40] 450 [46:41] million conversations. [46:44] And it's young people. If you go on to [46:45] Reddit, [46:46] uh I think it's R character AI. [46:49] They changed the model and there was [46:50] uproar. It doesn't love me like it used [46:53] to. People are building personal [46:55] relationships with these things at [46:56] scale. This is TikTok happening all over [46:59] again. [47:00] But you're too old to see it and I'm too [47:01] old to see it. I stumbled across it and [47:04] I'm like, "Holy [ __ ] This is happening [47:06] all over again." is something that we [47:08] will just think is the most ridiculous [47:10] awful societally toxic thing in the [47:12] world is about to scale to the billions [47:15] in front of our eyes and we're all [47:17] talking about chat GPT and how we can [47:19] get knowledge out of it when actually [47:20] the big problem to solve is teenage [47:22] loneliness. [47:24] How disruptive do you think AI is going [47:26] to be? [47:29] It's this it's [47:32] How do I put this? [47:35] It is the single greatest innovation of [47:38] humanity [47:40] ever. [47:45] The only thing that comes close is [47:46] probably the splitting of the atom. [47:49] This is so big. [47:52] Everything we've talked about is based [47:54] on scarcity of knowledge. [47:57] Why do lawyers get paid a lot? Scarcity [48:00] of knowledge. So it's either scarcity of [48:01] knowledge or scarcity of capital, those [48:02] two things. [48:04] What you've created is infinite [48:07] knowledge. [48:10] Right, knowledge is now worth zero. [48:14] Not people that can't see it yet, but [48:16] it's going to be worth zero. This is [48:18] like water. [48:21] What What the hell does that mean? And [48:24] it's something, you know, a topic we'll [48:26] come on to later. [48:29] But this is happening really fast. It's [48:30] going to break the entire economic model [48:33] for good and for bad. It's going to [48:35] change our understanding of how society [48:36] functions, what humans do. It's going to [48:39] change our understanding of what humans [48:40] are and will be. [48:43] Because you can either have the choice [48:45] and society will take the two paths. You [48:47] either merge with the machines [48:49] or you reject the machines. [48:52] We are going towards two different [48:54] species. [48:57] One group [48:58] like we had for a about 100,000 years, I [49:01] think 50,000 years, we had the [49:03] Neanderthal man and Homo sapien. [49:06] And one died out. We will have people [49:08] who will utterly reject this and we'll [49:09] have other people who will be embedding [49:12] neuralinks into their brains and using [49:15] every part of this to enhance [49:16] themselves, wearing the goggles so they [49:18] get the information. Well, as soon as [49:19] you embed into your brains, you've now [49:21] merged with the machines entirely and [49:22] you are now a super creature. [49:25] And I know this sounds like science [49:26] fiction but this is happening faster [49:29] than anybody can imagine. [49:31] So to understand the issues we have even [49:34] dealing with some of these things [49:37] is humans thinking in a linear fashion. [49:40] We kind of understand the passage of [49:42] time, right? That's how we think about [49:43] things. [49:44] Every year is the same amount of time [49:46] that goes forward. Never accelerates. [49:48] May perceive that it accelerates or [49:50] slows down occasionally, but it's not. [49:52] It's it's a constant. [49:54] The problem is with things that go [49:55] exponential [49:57] is they keep doubling every year or [49:58] tripling every year and before you know [50:00] it [50:00] every graph looks like this. Goes [50:02] straight up. Just goes straight up [50:04] vertically. Now, the issue is with this [50:06] technology [50:10] is it's kind of an exponential squared. [50:12] It's it's happening so fast and the [50:16] faster AI [50:17] becomes [50:19] powerful [50:21] is the more it's used to create AI, [50:24] which creates more it solves its own [50:26] problems. [50:27] Right? We're not prepared for a super [50:30] being [50:31] that solves its own energy problems, [50:33] compute problems and how to improve its [50:36] model [50:37] at an exponential rate. If you look at [50:39] the speed of innovation coming out of [50:41] Open AI and that whole space perpetually [50:43] everybody [50:44] it's ludicrous. Every 3 months [50:47] everything changes, completely changes. [50:50] Whether it's video models or whether [50:52] it's spoken models or whether it's the [50:55] models themselves and what they do [50:57] I mean, they're nuking every startup [51:00] that tries to build a business. No [51:02] company, you're a big giant [51:04] pharmaceutical company and you're trying [51:06] to use AI [51:08] you can't plant a flag [51:10] because you can't see past 6 months. [51:14] I mean, we're going into a world that is [51:16] incomprehensible. [51:18] When you said that much of our society [51:20] sort of functions and is based on the [51:22] scarcity of knowledge [51:25] I really think we should just pause to [51:26] make that real for people cuz we all get [51:28] it. Okay, lawyers, yeah, they they rely [51:30] on knowledge, but [51:31] dry like I was thinking about how I got [51:33] here in the morning. So, if you think [51:34] about my whole day today, I woke up this [51:36] morning and my my executive some of the [51:38] CEOs of my company said asked me a [51:39] couple of simple business decisions and [51:41] I'd replied to them. Then I got in a car [51:43] and I drove here. That's knowledge at [51:45] the end of the day. It's someone seeing [51:46] with two eyes. My driver outside sees [51:48] with two eyes and drives me here. [51:51] The biggest employer I think in the [51:53] world, the biggest sort of profession in [51:54] the world is driving. [51:55] And that's knowledge-based. And if you [51:57] go to San Francisco now, the the Waymo [51:59] cars are driving themselves. There's no [52:00] driver in them. You can get you can book [52:02] a car that takes you from A to B in San [52:04] Francisco right now that has no driver. [52:07] I then got here. And what am I doing? [52:09] I'm I'm sharing I guess we're probing to [52:12] find knowledge and to share knowledge. I [52:14] think about my whole day today. I'm like [52:15] and then after this I'm going and [52:16] speaking on stage to share knowledge. [52:17] I'm like I don't understand if in that's [52:19] all knowledge. [52:20] Okay, so then do that. The next time [52:21] you're going around London or any city, [52:24] look out the window. [52:25] Myself and Julian Bethell who works with [52:27] me do this all the time. [52:29] Just go around and say what job is going [52:30] to be replaced by a robot or the AI. [52:34] Like one thing I was in I was in [52:36] Manhattan [52:38] and I just looked out I was in an Uber [52:40] bored, you know, driving uptown to [52:42] downtown. I looked around and I was [52:44] like, holy [ __ ] Every car here is a [52:47] professional driver. There's virtually [52:49] no people who drive into the city to go [52:51] to the office or whatever, right? So, [52:53] it's all Uber drivers, limo drivers, [52:56] yellow cab drivers, delivery drivers, [52:58] truck drivers. [53:00] All gone. [53:02] And this stacks up in pretty much [53:04] everything you do. [53:06] Uh and that's how disruptive it is. [53:09] And when [53:10] the things that created value, the [53:12] services economy [53:15] and the manufacturing economy [53:18] don't need humans [53:20] Okay, what does that mean? Amazon [53:21] already employs more robots than humans. [53:25] Now, the robots work 24 hours a day, 7 [53:27] days a week, never take a break, never [53:29] complain, never ask for a pay rise. In [53:31] fact, they get cheaper every year. [53:34] Who's not going to do that? So, for the [53:38] 4 and 1/2 million people [ __ ] [53:39] themselves as they listen to this Yeah. [53:42] What what advice can we including myself [53:45] um [53:46] I'm not actually [ __ ] myself. I've [53:47] got to be honest because I just I see [53:49] opportunity in all these things and I [53:51] think that's you kind of have a choice [53:52] when you hear information like this. You [53:53] can either let the cognitive dissonance [53:55] get over overwhelm you and then reject [53:58] it, which a lot of people will be doing [53:59] now. They'll be saying, well, you're [54:00] wrong. This is not going to happen. [54:02] You're wrong. You're scaremongering. [54:03] That's what one group of people will be [54:04] doing. The other group of people will be [54:06] I guess open-minded and the third group [54:08] of people will be leaning in to see [54:10] where the opportunity here lies. And it [54:12] all comes down to your like disposition [54:14] as a human. [54:15] Are you scared? Are you excited or are [54:18] you paralyzed? [54:20] If something is so clearly going to be [54:22] your demise, not demise as in you're [54:25] going to die, but your current way of [54:27] doing things is going to be forced to [54:29] change. [54:31] Well, you can either fight it as you [54:33] say, being different to it [54:35] or you can invest in it. [54:37] This goes back to the question I asked [54:38] you earlier, which is how does it feel [54:40] in the moment when a trend is coming in? [54:43] Usually, there's culture around it. [54:46] So, if you remember I talked about [54:49] when I got into finance, there was [54:51] Gordon Gekko, the film Wall Street, the [54:53] there were books coming, right? There [54:55] was [54:56] Barbarians at the Gate, there was famous [54:58] stuff happening. [54:59] It became cultural. [55:02] And that usually tells you it is now [55:06] become a trend that's going to be [55:08] persistent. [55:10] If we think about [55:14] the rise of software and technology, the [55:17] culture [55:18] of Silicon Valley and the mythology [55:21] around it [55:22] becomes something that everybody wants a [55:24] part of. [55:26] Cryptocurrency is another one that has a [55:28] mythology. You see people getting rich. [55:31] It has this feeling of being outsiders, [55:34] but you know [55:37] you see AI is another one. You see [55:39] online people experimenting. You can see [55:42] what's going on. You can see everybody [55:43] is starting to talk about it. Doesn't [55:45] mean you can just buy some [55:47] share that that's exposed to it and [55:49] you'll be hilariously rich. Doesn't work [55:51] that way. But you know something really [55:54] big when you're [55:56] when you're trying to acquire knowledge [55:58] you know [55:59] people watch you and I to try and glean [56:01] knowledge, you know [56:02] build their world view. [56:04] You'll hear that every single person is [56:06] talking about this and trying to figure [56:07] out what it means. The issue is is AI [56:10] will build businesses, right? So, we're [56:13] 6 months away of agentic AI. [56:16] Agentic AI means it's like having Fiverr [56:20] a website of experts that you can ask [56:22] any question and it will go away and do [56:24] the task. [56:25] And by using a number of Fiverr experts [56:28] you can build a [56:30] online business. [56:32] Well, the agentic AI will do that very [56:34] very soon. It'll build design the [56:36] website, code it, register the domain [56:38] name figure out the branding, figure out [56:40] the marketing, figure out the email [56:41] list, figure out Super fast. the whole [56:44] thing. Mhm. So, then you and I are in [56:47] competition now. You've built this [56:48] incredible new website and it's a new [56:50] supplements formula [56:53] thing, but it's a cool website new [56:54] experience kind of 3D whatever it is, [56:56] right? It's got AI in it. I just go to [56:58] my AI and say, love Steven's website, [57:01] can you just build it better? Make it in [57:02] Hindi as well cuz I think there's a big [57:03] market there. What do you think? It'll [57:05] come back and say, not Hindi, I think [57:07] there's an undersaturated market in in [57:08] Indonesia. Boom. [57:10] 3 minutes. [57:12] What? [57:14] How do how can we be entrepreneurs [57:17] in software? [57:18] So, now there's this [57:21] theory going around that [57:23] AI is going to eat software. [57:24] And I kind of get it cuz it can build [57:26] anything in seconds. [57:29] So [57:30] and again, whether it could do it 6 [57:32] months or 12 months, it's it's of that [57:34] magnitude [57:36] the what the hell does that mean? [57:38] But yet [57:40] the 23-year-old who's learned guiding in [57:42] the jungles of Latin America and is [57:45] building a luxury lodge for people and [57:48] uh you know, some eco-tourism [57:50] I don't give a [ __ ] about any of this. [57:52] It's so interesting this idea that we [57:54] might be at the the collapse of the [57:57] digital opportunity in a sense because [57:59] when I say the digital opportunity, I'm [58:00] talking about content creators. I'm [58:01] talking about entrepreneurs that built, [58:04] you know, after the dot-com era. I'm [58:05] talking about [58:07] stock traders, you know, people that [58:08] trade stock markets. And if we're at the [58:10] collapse of the digital opportunity [58:13] and that the value's all going to accrue [58:14] to these big sort of tech giants or the [58:17] AIs [58:18] imagine if this is the moment in history [58:20] where actually the best play was to go [58:22] be build the backpacking company in I [58:25] don't know, the Himalayas or whatever. [58:27] Maybe like [58:28] that's the opportunity. But it's not [58:30] scalable. Yes, you can do it and find [58:33] people will spend more at it. To go back [58:35] to our earlier conversations, people [58:36] spend a lot of money on it. So, it's [58:38] quality attention cuz everything in the [58:41] world is attention. [58:42] Attention is upstream of everything. So, [58:44] you get the attention of these people in [58:46] a rainforest. They want to spend money [58:48] on doing this particular thing. [58:50] Fantastic. [58:52] Um how scalable is it? [58:56] Difficult because then there's people [58:58] management. It's not like software, [59:00] right? So, they're not but you can do [59:02] very well [59:03] and not be concerned about this other [59:05] world. [59:06] How does one [59:08] invest in AI? [59:10] Something that I think about a lot [59:11] because I believe the things you say. I [59:12] believe many of your predictions around [59:14] around the impact that AI is going to [59:15] have on the world, the economy, on all [59:17] of us. And as someone that's an [59:18] investor, I want to like take part in [59:20] that. I want to take part in the upside. [59:21] So, I'm wondering, do I just go buy [59:22] Microsoft stock because they own a bit [59:24] of ChatGPT? Do I buy Meta stock cuz they [59:27] own a bit of cuz they own Lambda? Do I [59:29] buy Google stock cuz they have Gemini [59:31] and their models. [59:33] So, here's the problem with the [59:35] financial system. [59:37] The average person watching this [59:39] has no chance of making the money. [59:42] They'll make normal returns, not [59:44] supernormal returns. [59:46] So, Microsoft is whatever it is, two, [59:48] three trillion dollar company. What what [59:49] could it be worth? Who knows? 10 [59:51] trillion, 15 trillion. It doesn't really [59:52] matter, right? That's a 5x. [59:55] What for the most revolutionary [59:57] technology the world has ever seen? You [59:58] make five times your money? [60:01] That's not [60:02] But somebody else [60:04] in VC or earlier, in some way, shape, or [60:07] form, or the entrepreneur will make all [60:10] of the money. [60:12] And this is the thing I don't like about [60:14] the system as it is. It's kind of rigged [60:16] against the ordinary person. [60:19] So, [60:20] we're going to have your jobs replaced, [60:22] you're going to have this societal [60:23] change, and yet they don't get a chance. [60:27] So, [60:29] yes, [60:30] invest in technology. [60:32] Don't own any other stocks. [60:34] Own technology. [60:36] And you will capture some of this. [60:37] You're investing in your own demise. At [60:39] least you'll get some high-quality [60:41] returns. [60:44] But otherwise, [60:45] the only way I can come up with, again, [60:47] and we keep referring to it, [60:50] it is crypto. What is crypto? [60:54] Crypto is just a technology. You know, [60:56] it's a lot of things to many people. [60:58] It's just a database that's better than [61:00] databases in the past. [61:03] So, right now, [61:05] your database may be in your [61:06] spreadsheet, and let's say you and I [61:07] have a bet. You put it You write it down [61:10] there, [61:11] and we get a third person [61:13] to say, [61:14] "Yeah, that was the bet they had, and [61:16] this is what's happened." [61:18] Okay. [61:19] That is how databases, that's banks, [61:22] that's pretty much everything we do in [61:24] society is in this ledger system. It's [61:26] called I've got a suitcase here, which [61:28] is [61:29] maybe [61:30] maybe a good way to kind of explain [61:31] this. [61:33] This is a bank. [61:36] And [61:38] inside the bank, [61:40] which is, I guess, the middleman, you [61:41] got money. Yeah. [61:43] So, could you explain it to me through [61:44] the context of this, [61:46] we'll call it the central bank, [61:48] how the system currently works as it [61:50] relates to transactions, the public [61:52] ledger, et cetera? So, okay. In the old [61:54] world, [61:58] we both had our gold. Yeah. [62:00] And we'd stick it in our safe or bury it [62:02] in the ground. That gold was your gold. [62:05] This was my gold, and I might try and [62:06] fight you for it. It's what pirates did. [62:08] Okay. And then we invent banks. Mhm. [62:11] And banks, [62:13] we put it in there, and they give you a [62:15] note to say, "Stephen, you've got one of [62:18] those coins. [62:19] Raoul, you've got one of those coins." [62:21] Okay. So, we both got a a note now [62:22] saying that. [62:23] Yeah. And now we trust this bank [62:27] to give us our coins when we want them, [62:29] cuz they're our coins. Mhm. [62:31] Okay, that makes sense. Safe as Safe as [62:33] a bank, as people would say. [62:35] The issue is [62:36] is in this world of smoke and mirrors, [62:39] what's known as fractional reserve [62:41] banking, [62:42] they have taken [62:45] those coins [62:48] and given them to somebody else. They've [62:49] given my coins to someone else? [62:50] Yeah, they've lent it for money. [62:52] So, now that coin is not in there. [62:57] But they've been given the money, so [62:59] usually when you're just the the You [63:00] know, if everybody pulls all the money [63:02] out, there's not enough money. It's [63:03] called a bank run. We've seen those [63:05] recently, but that's a classic thing. [63:07] So, it's not your money [63:09] because you don't actually own your [63:11] money. The moment you put it in the [63:12] bank, [63:14] what you've become is, in fact, [63:16] a debtor to the bank, or a credit Sorry, [63:18] a creditor to the bank. So, you've lent [63:21] them money, [63:23] and [63:24] you get some legal redress [63:26] that if you've got less than 100,000 [63:28] euros, pounds, whatever the currency is, [63:30] generally that's protected by the [63:31] government that if the bank goes bust, [63:36] then you get your money back. [63:38] But anything beyond that, [63:40] you don't get anything. But I've got a [63:41] piece of paper. [63:42] Yeah. Means [ __ ] [63:44] You don't own anything. [63:47] Now, it's so big as a problem [63:50] that 2000 So, that was 2012 European [63:53] crisis, exactly this. People didn't own [63:56] their money. [63:57] That person walked off with it, asked [63:59] the bank for it. The bank didn't have [64:00] it. Nobody's got any money. Where's it [64:03] all gone? That's the same Ponzi scheme [64:04] we talked about when you've got [64:06] you buy a house and use the cash flow to [64:07] buy another house, another house, right? [64:09] Somebody takes away what's known as the [64:10] collateral, suddenly it's all gone. [64:13] But the issue is actually bigger cuz [64:16] 2008 [64:17] proved another thing. [64:20] Is that nobody owns anything. [64:23] So, [64:24] the whole system itself [64:26] is leveraged. [64:28] So, for example, back in that time, [64:32] the average US government bond, which is [64:33] the safest thing in the world, [64:36] was leveraged [64:38] up to 30 times. [64:40] What does that mean? That means [64:43] 30 people [64:45] thought that that was theirs. [64:47] Oh, so I say that [64:50] this is the bank in front of us, the [64:51] suitcase, and it had one coin in it. [64:55] When we put that one coin in, it created [64:57] 30 more coins, and gave out 30 pieces of [65:01] paper. Yeah. So, there's actually only [65:03] one coin in the bank. Yeah. But they [65:04] made 30 pieces of paper. [65:06] all well and good [65:08] if [65:09] the collateral, the thing that it's [65:11] secured on, the coin, [65:14] maintains value. [65:17] Uh okay. [65:17] Or isn't pulled [65:19] by one person. If you were the lender [65:22] and you're original lender and you get [65:24] it out, [65:26] and something happens, then all of these [65:27] 29 other people are like, [65:29] "I want my coin back." [65:31] And they're like, "It doesn't exist." [65:33] It doesn't exist. [65:34] So, we just made it We just created the [65:36] coin. Correct. [65:37] We just Sorry, we just gave you a piece [65:38] of paper, but there was no coin backing [65:40] it. Yeah, and the issue is So, that's [65:42] one issue with the banking. The other [65:44] issue is is pretty much everything we do [65:46] is created on this [65:48] It's called a ledger system. A ledger [65:49] was invented in the Renaissance, in the [65:52] 1500s, 1400s, where [65:55] what would happen is you have this on a [65:57] on a [65:58] accounts or balance sheet, you'd have [66:00] these dual-entry [66:02] ledgers. [66:03] And what it's basically saying is I [66:05] agree with you, and often we'd have a [66:07] third party agreeing it. Okay. [66:09] Issue is [66:11] is that's known as the Byzantine [66:13] general's problem. It's actually a [66:14] philosophical mathematical problem that [66:16] has been unsolvable [66:18] until Bitcoin came along. [66:21] And what it is [66:23] is we are generals in a war. [66:26] You are way away from me. We can't [66:27] communicate with each other, but I need [66:29] to send somebody to tell you something. [66:31] There is no way of making sure that that [66:34] person tells you exactly what I've told [66:35] them, and no way of you approving it. [66:38] And that's what a three-party system [66:39] does. [66:40] I may go to a notary, but how do you [66:41] know I haven't bribed the notary to lie? [66:44] I see that all the time. [66:46] We see it with accounting firms and [66:48] audits. We see this [66:49] in everything. There's always one of [66:51] these trusted parties that is not [66:53] trusted. The bank, classical trusted [66:56] counterparty, that suddenly [66:58] may not be trusted. We saw it with [66:59] Silicon Valley Bank recently in the US. [67:03] So, what blockchain did, really [67:05] cleverly, [67:07] was said, "Okay, well, the way of [67:08] solving this [67:09] is to get thousands, [67:11] tens of thousands, hundreds of [67:13] thousands, millions [67:15] of people confirm it." Okay, so let's [67:17] throw away the bank. [67:20] Take my paper back cuz that's worth [67:21] zero. Um [67:23] If you pick up this chain here on the [67:25] floor, Yeah. this is our hypothetical [67:29] blockchain. Yeah. Now, explain to me the [67:31] difference between the bank we just saw [67:34] and this blockchain. [67:36] So, this blockchain, [67:38] so this, let's say, is a Bitcoin. Mhm. [67:41] This slot on the blockchain [67:44] is confirmed [67:46] by every other part of the blockchain, [67:48] which is all the computers [67:50] that that solve this mathematical [67:52] problem. We don't need to worry about [67:53] that, but what it is is tens of [67:56] thousands of people reporting [67:58] on all of the activity. So, if I [68:01] transfer this ownership to you, Yeah. it [68:04] will know that you are the owner. You [68:06] can either hold it yourself, like the [68:08] gold coin, Mhm. as a bearer asset, [68:11] or [68:12] you can ask somebody to custody it for [68:14] you, but [68:16] still your name. [68:17] So, if I want to send you a Bitcoin, [68:20] how is [68:21] how are tens of thousands of people or [68:23] hundreds of thousands of people [68:24] confirming that that transaction is [68:27] legitimate without a middleman checking? [68:29] So, they're essentially taking a [68:30] snapshot of the blockchain, [68:34] and they all have to agree. [68:37] And they're not actually It's called a [68:38] consensus mechanism. They're not [68:40] actually at their computer saying, "Yes, [68:41] I agree." [68:42] Well, the computers agree. Okay, so the [68:44] computers are checking. Yeah, or the [68:46] the blockchain itself [68:49] will say, "Well, that doesn't agree with [68:50] all the others," and it gets rejected, [68:52] and that whole block will get rejected [68:53] until resolved. Like, there's a problem [68:55] here." [68:56] And that's called consensus. So, what [68:58] you're doing is a multi-party consensus [69:01] that this is truth. Mhm. So, now what [69:04] you've created is what a friend of mine [69:05] calls the security truth machine. [69:09] So, at first, we all know it for [69:11] Bitcoin. [69:12] I can own a Bitcoin. It's proven that I [69:13] own the Bitcoin. I don't need anybody to [69:15] tell me that I own the Bitcoin because [69:17] it's [69:18] publicly acknowledgeable [69:20] and verifiable on the blockchain. It's [69:23] immutable, which means [69:26] can't be broken. Mhm. [69:28] Okay. [69:30] But, [69:32] this is where it gets really [69:32] interesting. [69:34] Is we suddenly find that after the [69:35] invention of the smart contract, so [69:38] right now, [69:39] let's say we're 2,000 and [69:42] There's a contract in here. [69:44] Yes, because I've sent one Bitcoin to [69:47] Raul. Okay. So, this is the world [69:50] pre-Ethereum. Okay. [69:52] The world post-Ethereum would say, "I'm [69:55] going to send Raul one Bitcoin if the [69:58] sun shines 13 days in a row in London [70:01] and something else happens. Whatever it [70:03] is." [70:05] And it'll automatically settle, [70:08] verified on the chain. Because there's [70:11] 10,000 computers. [70:12] And there's code in that to make the [70:14] settlement. Okay. Okay. So, [70:18] all's well and good. [70:20] Maybe nobody knows what that means yet. [70:22] What it means is that everything we do [70:25] as humans is actually contracts. Me [70:27] turning up here today, a contract. [70:30] Literally everything we do is a [70:31] contract. [70:33] Every ticket you buy, every purchase you [70:35] make, everything is a contract. It's how [70:37] society functions. [70:38] Money's a contract, isn't it? Money's a [70:40] contract. Government's a contract. [70:42] Religion's a contract. Everything is a [70:44] contract. It's how we create a social [70:46] construct and social order. [70:48] Now, what we can start doing [70:51] is using this very powerful chain [70:55] and putting other stuff on it. [70:58] The first random thing that came on it [71:00] was actually art, cuz it's valuable. [71:03] Called NFTs, non-fungible tokens. [71:05] They're single pieces of art [71:07] that are stored there and we can have [71:09] ownership. [71:10] But that's really experimentation. [71:12] Really, [71:13] your Taylor Swift concert tickets can be [71:15] on chain. Why would you do that? [71:18] Because now, [71:20] this has solved another big thing that [71:22] didn't exist. [71:24] We talked about before, in a digital [71:26] world, everything goes to zero in value. [71:29] So, Raul, what's the point of this? This [71:30] is just like cloud cloud storage. Just [71:33] goes to zero in cost. No, cuz what we've [71:36] created is digital scarcity. [71:39] You can only create a certain amount. We [71:41] can make that one asset be that one [71:43] asset. Mhm. [71:45] And so, therefore, it can't be [71:47] replicated at all. [71:50] So, now in this digital world, where [71:52] every day is more digital than the next, [71:54] we've created the scarcity. [71:56] And scarcity is what gives value. It's [71:58] what humans assign value to. [72:01] And that means that Scarcity of [72:03] knowledge Mhm. means that knowledge was [72:05] valuable. Lawyers, cuz not that many [72:07] people come out of law school that then [72:09] Now, with AI, not valuable. So, to make [72:13] sure I I and everyone listening [72:14] understands what a what the blockchain [72:16] is, it's this [72:18] public, can think of it as this database [72:20] in the sky, [72:21] and the database in the sky is checked [72:23] by everybody who has their computer on [72:27] and is interacting with the database in [72:28] the sky. So, you no longer need a [72:30] government or a bank checking the [72:31] transactions and the and the contracts [72:33] in the database in the sky, because now [72:35] all of our computers that are on, [72:37] interacting with it, are in the [72:38] background checking that if I send you [72:41] one Bitcoin, if I do something on this [72:43] database in the sky, [72:45] it is [72:46] um [72:48] in accordance with the history of the [72:50] database, [72:51] and um it is [72:55] in line with that database. Yeah. What [72:58] and to make it less complicated, [73:00] it just makes it a source of truth. [73:02] Okay. In a world [73:04] where we don't even know who is who [73:05] online, [73:06] who owes each other what, any of these [73:09] things, [73:11] we now have source of truth that [73:12] everybody can agree on. And everyone can [73:14] see. And everybody can see. [73:16] And you don't need to trust anybody. [73:18] And so, that as a technology [73:22] solves [73:24] many things, problems that we don't even [73:26] know we've got, because they're so part [73:28] of how we exist. [73:30] So, the technology is not about money. [73:34] The technology is about [73:37] truth [73:39] and [73:40] exchanging value and creating value in a [73:43] digital age. Now, what is interesting [73:46] and powerful about this technology [73:49] is we've seen technologies similar [73:51] before, the internet. [73:54] We've seen broadband. We've seen these [73:56] big global infrastructure things. [74:02] Most of those, the internet was a public [74:04] service good. [74:07] Broadband was all built private sector. [74:11] We didn't get to make money out of these [74:14] things, really. [74:16] Amazon made the money or [74:18] or whoever it was building the [74:20] broadband, they all went bust as well. [74:22] What we've got here [74:24] is this very clever thing [74:26] that [74:27] everybody in this block chain gets [74:30] rewarded for the role that they play. [74:34] In maintaining the blockchain. In [74:36] maintaining the blockchain. [74:38] And because these things are scarce, and [74:40] let's say Bitcoin being the most classic [74:42] example, there's only 21 million that [74:43] will ever exist, you've created this [74:46] scarce asset that is a reward system. [74:48] So, the people who mine the Bitcoin, [74:51] they use the electricity to solve the [74:52] algorithm to get the Bitcoins to make [74:54] sure there's only 21 million, well, they [74:56] get rewarded. [74:58] The people who verify the chain get [74:59] rewarded. [75:00] And then, [75:02] we can buy the asset, which is actually [75:04] us investing [75:06] in the future use cases of this thing. [75:10] Are people going to use it for storing [75:12] wealth or building stuff? [75:14] So, now you get [75:16] this global infrastructure layer [75:19] of which [75:20] people can invest. Now, let's go back to [75:22] the example of AI. [75:25] AI, [75:27] 99% of people listening to this will not [75:30] be able to invest in it, apart from [75:31] buying some of those big public [75:32] companies. [75:35] Because they're not accredited [75:35] investors, they're not allowed, they [75:37] don't get to see it, they're an insider, [75:38] all of this stuff. [75:40] This is the inverse. [75:43] It is fractionalizable. [75:46] So, a Bitcoin, you don't have to buy one [75:47] at 60 whatever thousand it is today, you [75:50] can buy [75:52] a fraction. [75:54] So, remember we talked about property [75:56] and the guys who own the big high-end [75:58] property make all the money. [76:01] None of us can buy the $50 million [76:03] apartment in Manhattan and then do it up [76:06] and flip it for $250 million. [76:09] Now, blockchain, [76:11] we can all put 10% of our paycheck in [76:13] it. [76:14] Do you think people should? [76:16] Yeah, and more. But the point being [76:19] is this is the only [76:22] globally homogeneous asset [76:26] on Earth. [76:28] It's the same in Nigeria as it is in [76:30] Brazil, as it is in London, as it is in [76:33] Silicon Valley, [76:34] as it is in India, as it is in Papua New [76:37] Guinea. [76:38] And everybody is on an equal footing. [76:41] You can put the same percentage of your [76:44] worth in it. [76:46] Okay, that [76:48] is mind-blowing. And it bypasses the [76:51] banking system, the brokerage system, [76:53] and all the other incumbent things that [76:55] get in the way of a Nigerian [76:58] buying an international investment. [77:01] So, we've got a playing field that's [77:03] leveled in the fastest growing [77:04] technology of all time, in the fastest [77:07] appreciating asset in price terms of all [77:10] time, [77:11] in the shortest period of time, that is [77:13] globally available to anybody. [77:17] And then you realize, "Holy [ __ ] Okay, [77:20] this is important." Now, why that's [77:23] important is because [77:25] having more investors in it means the [77:27] asset becomes more valuable, which means [77:30] you're more likely to secure it. People [77:32] want to join the network to earn some of [77:34] these tokens to secure it. The more use [77:36] cases get built upon it, because people [77:38] are making money, and it bootstraps. [77:41] It's behavioral economics. It's an [77:42] incentive-based system to bootstrap the [77:46] most ridiculous startup idea of all [77:48] time, which is, "I'm going to entirely [77:50] disrupt money and create a new [77:51] internet." I mean, that's laughably [77:54] stupid, and that's what's happening. One [77:56] of the I run a company called [77:57] Thirdweb, which is a Web3 infrastructure [78:00] business. We we've raised quite a lot of [78:02] money for the company, about $30 million [78:04] now, and we have a big team, and it's [78:07] interesting for me to observe the use [78:09] cases, because people come to Thirdweb [78:11] to build on the blockchain. And one of [78:14] the really interesting use cases we've [78:15] seen over the last, I'd say, 12 months [78:17] that's really exploded is is gaming. [78:20] People building [78:22] uh Web3 blockchain-based games, because [78:25] if you think about games like FIFA, [78:27] which is a huge game, obviously, in the [78:28] UK, where we're big soccer fans, or [78:30] other games like, you know, um Runescape [78:33] back in the day, where you have assets [78:36] in the game. In FIFA, you have a Messi [78:38] card. In Runescape, you might have a [78:40] sword. [78:41] The thing that the blockchain now [78:42] enables us to do is to take those assets [78:44] from the game and actually trade them [78:46] outside the game. [78:47] So, I can if the if the sword was on the [78:49] Ethereum blockchain, even though I'm not [78:51] inside the game, I can trade that sword [78:53] on the Ethereum blockchain, and so [78:55] one of the most exceptional use cases [78:57] we've seen at Thirdweb is people [78:58] building AI games. Oh, sorry. People [79:01] building Web3 games, because these [79:03] assets are now valuable. It's great for [79:04] the game developer. They've now got this [79:06] brand new economy for their for their [79:08] company, and it's great for the people [79:09] that own those assets in the game, cuz [79:11] they've now those assets are now more [79:12] valuable, cuz more people can access [79:14] them. [79:15] And I don't think people realize the [79:16] extent to which this disruption is [79:17] already taking place. People think of [79:19] crypto and Web3, and they think of [79:21] buying coins and hoping the price goes [79:22] up. But it was interesting, you know, [79:24] everyone knows like DocuSign and Adobe [79:27] like e-sign and those things. And I went [79:29] on one of their websites, I think it was [79:30] DocuSign, cuz I just I thought surely [79:33] physical contracts should be on the [79:34] Ethereum blockchain now. And there was [79:36] this little paragraph on the DocuSign [79:37] website which says every time like a [79:40] contract is signed on DocuSign, we do [79:43] like there's a hash on the blockchain. [79:45] So it's like recorded on the blockchain. [79:47] I thought people don't even know that [79:48] the blockchain is now penetrated [79:49] society. [79:50] I was um I've got an asset management [79:52] company, Exponential Age Asset [79:53] Management, and we invest in [79:55] hedge funds that just invest in crypto [79:57] to capture this trend of going from [80:00] 2 trillion dollars where it is today in [80:02] value, I think it's going to 100 [80:04] trillion in [80:06] let's say 2032, 2034. Okay, that's [80:09] stupid. That's that's more wealth than [80:12] the than [80:13] has ever been created in that period of [80:15] time on earth by [80:17] quite twice the amount of value the S&P [80:20] 500, the US stock market [80:23] took to build [80:25] in 100 years. I think we'll do it in 20. [80:28] So, this is staggering that wealth, [80:31] which is why we'll talk about why people [80:33] should be involved in how they should be [80:34] involved later cuz I'm passionate about [80:36] that. [80:37] But I was one of our investors, I was in [80:39] Switzerland, and she is the head of [80:41] trading at [80:43] one of the soft commodity companies. So, [80:46] soft commodities like cocoa, sugar, [80:48] corn, all of this stuff. Agricultural [80:50] commodities. [80:51] And um [80:53] I'm like surely you guys [80:55] should be thinking about building on [80:58] blockchain. [80:59] You know, because there's a lot of [81:01] letters of credit and stuff that [81:03] happens, shipments. She goes, "Oh, we [81:06] all all the commodity trading houses [81:09] built on Ethereum in 2020." Mhm. [81:12] She goes, "So, every shipment we make [81:16] the shipping contracts [81:18] the quality of goods contract the [81:21] letters of credit [81:23] everything is on chain. So, we don't [81:26] have to trust these others cuz [81:28] commodity industry is full of sharks and [81:30] you're dealing with countries that are [81:31] not easy to deal with. She's like, [81:33] "We've got this verifiable source of [81:35] truth. It's completely revolutionized [81:36] our industry, and nobody knows about [81:38] it." And if if I own Ethereum Yeah. if I [81:40] own an Ethereum token Yeah. which I do, [81:43] by the way. Yeah. I've been stacking it [81:45] and refusing to sell. [81:47] Good. Much to my brother's dismay. He's [81:49] like, "Steve, you're a bit too emotional [81:50] about this stuff." I was like, "Bro, I [81:51] was like, if there's any asset that I [81:53] own that I Well, we're going to talk [81:54] about how not to [ __ ] it up later. [81:56] That's another thesis. But how do I [81:57] benefit from the fact that games are now [82:00] being built on Ethereum and It's really [82:01] simple. [82:02] If [82:04] we'd all been given shares in Facebook [82:06] when it started we'd have all been [82:08] hilariously rich. [82:10] But we didn't. [82:11] The VCs got it, and then it went to the [82:13] public market, and then you have to have [82:14] a brokerage account, you have to be [82:15] approved, right? [82:17] What this is happening, you buy an [82:20] Ethereum token today [82:22] if Ethereum ends up becoming bigger [82:26] and more uses [82:28] your token value goes up. It's as simple [82:30] as that. So, you get to participate in [82:32] an entire technological revolution [82:35] really simply from your mobile phone. [82:38] And you don't need anybody to approve it [82:40] or do anything. [82:42] Yes, there's regulation stuff, but [82:43] simple stuff like that, it's pretty [82:45] straightforward for almost everybody in [82:47] the world. So, therefore we talked about [82:50] how do you invest in your disruption and [82:52] the future of technology. Okay, here's [82:54] one where you can really do it, and [82:59] it's easy to do. [83:01] I have a couple questions here then. So [83:02] you said it's easy to do. Yeah. [83:04] Let's talk about the practicalities. How [83:06] do does one do it? [83:08] I can do it on my phone, I have to call [83:09] someone, how do I invest in crypto? You [83:12] just open a crypto account. Yeah. [83:15] Um with one of the big crypto providers, [83:17] Coinbase, Kraken [83:19] crypto.com, who are at Gemini. What [83:22] about this though? My bank, my digital [83:24] bank is offering me to buy crypto on [83:26] there, should I do that? [83:27] Yes, you can. [83:29] And you could do it by PayPal. Start [83:31] somewhere. I'm not going to say no. [83:34] But you will go down the journey that [83:36] everybody goes down, which is [83:38] the easiest on-ramp is the best. [83:40] Revolut, whatever, I don't care. Do it. [83:44] Get a feel for what it's like to own an [83:45] asset that goes up and down a lot. [83:48] Mhm. Particularly down. When it goes [83:50] down, it makes you feel terrible, and [83:51] you've got to learn about how to deal [83:53] with it. [83:54] And then because it goes up over time, [83:57] if you don't do anything and you've [83:58] chosen a good quality asset [84:00] that's provable as a as an asset in [84:03] itself [84:05] it'll probably go up over time. In fact, [84:06] highly likely to go up a lot. [84:09] And then you'll start thinking [84:11] do you remember Raoul saying that the [84:12] bank owns this stuff and I don't own it? [84:16] And then you might say, "Oh, but the [84:18] magic here is unlike the bank where I [84:20] can't take more than 10 grand out. [84:22] I can put it all [84:24] on my little ledger device because [84:27] What's a ledger device? A ledger device [84:29] is it's actually a it's a company that [84:31] provides it, but what it is [84:33] because this is just an address on a [84:36] blockchain. [84:39] And think of it it's like your mailbox. [84:42] You can send stuff to it [84:44] but you can't actually take it out. [84:47] Like your email, somebody can't read all [84:49] your emails, but they can send you [84:50] emails. [84:51] Well, that [84:53] that part that's private [84:56] that secure [84:58] passkey essentially [85:01] well, you keep that to yourself and it's [85:03] stored on a device, and there's a [85:05] complicated way of doing it, and you'll [85:07] have to go through that, which is you [85:08] have to have this seed phrase that does [85:10] it. This technology will change quite [85:12] soon, you know, fingerprints, face [85:14] prints, and a bunch of other stuff. But [85:15] basically [85:17] a little USB stick [85:19] will secure that you can go and put in a [85:20] safe or go and take it to your nan's [85:22] house or whatever it is [85:24] can secure [85:26] your money that is only yours and nobody [85:29] can take it out. I have mine on a [85:32] ledger. So, I have my Ethereum on a [85:34] small It's kind of like a small USB [85:35] stick. And then that USB stick is [85:38] protected by like 24 words or whatever [85:40] it is. That's right. And those words are [85:42] on pieces of paper in different [85:44] countries at the moment. [85:45] Um and it means that no matter what [85:47] happens, no matter where I am in the [85:48] world, no matter who comes for me I can [85:51] always retrieve the X thousand Ethereum [85:54] that I have on this ledger device. Yeah. [85:56] Um unlike a bank where my my account [85:58] could get frozen by the government, or [86:00] they could empty my bank, they could [86:02] freeze my bank. [86:03] I can I will always have that value. And [86:06] also, you know, there's a famous example [86:08] of the conversation of gold in the [86:10] United States, and it's been done in [86:11] many countries in the past. [86:13] The good thing about this [86:16] magic internet money [86:18] is you have to physically cross borders [86:20] with it. [86:21] Yeah. Yeah. [86:22] Think of all the Jewish people who had [86:24] to take [86:25] money and diamonds and gold out of Nazi [86:29] Germany and out of Europe. [86:31] It was hard to do. [86:33] Here, you have to do anything. You just [86:35] need to remember a seed phrase. [86:37] A seed phrase being basically a string [86:39] of words. Yeah. Yeah. [86:42] So, which [86:43] blockchain, which coin do you think [86:46] people should invest in? I have only [86:48] ever invested in one. I've only ever [86:50] backed Ethereum. I think part of my bias [86:53] there comes from the fact that when we [86:54] building Thirdweb I had a window into [86:56] the blockchains that people were [86:58] actually building their applications on. [87:00] And Ethereum was the [87:02] was the one. And obviously there's layer [87:03] twos, which are people then, you know, [87:05] build blockchains on top of Ethereum, [87:07] etc. But for me, Ethereum was just the [87:09] dominant blockchain that I thought would [87:11] solve for most of [87:13] the use cases outside of maybe um [87:15] what they call a store of value outside [87:17] of like money necessarily. So, contracts [87:19] and other things. So, what do you say? [87:21] This is where [87:23] my this is my 30 years of expertise is [87:25] this one thing which is asset [87:27] allocation. [87:30] So, firstly [87:32] the average person watching this [87:35] is you need to allocate to this. End of [87:37] story. If you're going to start [87:38] somewhere [87:40] start with Bitcoin. [87:42] It's just easy to do. [87:44] It's widely available [87:46] you know, through different, you know, [87:48] whether it's your credit card, anything, [87:49] just do that. [87:51] I don't care. Do that. And do it with [87:55] as much money as you can afford [87:57] to see go down [87:59] 60, 70% and don't care. [88:03] And expect that to happen cuz that's [88:05] what you have to see to see the [88:07] long-term 150% a year. It's included [88:10] within that is these downsides. [88:14] Then [88:15] I want you to put in some money every [88:17] month [88:19] regardless of price [88:21] to build your savings in this [88:23] exponential asset that goes up a lot. [88:25] Okay, now you're set. You're on the [88:27] journey. [88:29] And then you want to figure out how do I [88:31] make the most money? [88:32] Like you, I switched I Bitcoin to start [88:35] with. I switched all of my Bitcoin into [88:37] ETH [88:38] in 2020, in Ethereum. [88:41] And so I was I just owned that plus some [88:44] NFTs and a few other bits and pieces, [88:46] but generally it was that. [88:50] And then in 2020 [88:53] two at the bottom of the bear market, I [88:55] started to see the price of Solana [88:59] seeing like it it wants to outperform [89:01] Ethereum. Now, Solana, much like your [89:03] thesis [89:05] I saw this massive developer community [89:08] passionate retail, and a difference in [89:10] the technology. Cuz these are all [89:12] basically [89:14] distributed companies that sell block [89:15] space. So, you want to look for [89:17] attractive block space. Bitcoin, it's [89:19] the secure one. [89:21] Ethereum, it's like the world computer, [89:23] you know, and everybody's building on [89:24] top of it. Solana, [89:27] faster, cheaper, [89:30] feels more friendly, efficient. Yeah, it [89:32] feels more retail. [89:35] And I saw that [89:38] and the speed of which they can do [89:39] things and the innovation [89:42] and the the developer community [89:45] meant that I started switching and then [89:46] switched all of my ETH outside of my [89:48] NFTs where I collect a lot of art [89:50] into Solana. [89:53] And I've now been switching part of my [89:56] Solana into Sui, SUI, [90:00] and as a [90:01] disclaimer, I'm actually on the board of [90:03] the foundation, but it's like the next [90:05] big chosen one. It's the group that came [90:07] out of Facebook that built Facebook [90:09] Libra. So, what I'm trying to do is [90:10] maximize my return. I'm a mercenary [90:14] around I'm passionate about this space [90:16] and what it means, the technology, [90:19] and how it empowers people, how it can [90:21] change the third world, how it can [90:23] change the internet, but I'm also a [90:25] mercenary for my own capital and for [90:28] anybody else I can help. Now, it doesn't [90:30] mean I always get it right. [90:32] So, to in your particular circumstance, [90:34] I would like Look, you'll probably be [90:36] fine over time, but you're not [90:37] maximizing your returns. But, do you [90:39] want to take the risk? Do you have the [90:41] bandwidth to do that? And these are the [90:42] questions we were talking about with [90:44] work. It's the same thing. How much do [90:46] you want to go down the rabbit hole? How [90:47] much time do you have to invest versus [90:49] the expected upside? I don't have the [90:51] time. I'm spending all my time doing [90:53] podcasting, building businesses. And [90:55] then, just do what you're doing. Unless [90:57] something says that Ethereum usage is [91:00] falling off a cliff and developers are [91:02] leaving in total, [91:03] then don't worry about it, right? You're [91:05] going to be directionally very right. [91:07] Will you capture [91:09] the best returns? No, nor will I. [91:12] Some other rando will get by luck [91:14] something right. But, the average [91:17] person, so I have this thesis that I've [91:19] had tried to help as many people where [91:20] this is from my own learnings and [91:22] watching everybody else [ __ ] it up [91:24] is what happens is you're given this [91:27] incredible asset class. [91:30] And at first, you do intelligent thing [91:32] like own some Bitcoin and some ETH. [91:34] And then, you want to get out the risk [91:35] curve cuz you see somebody else making [91:36] more money, you understand you can. [91:38] That's okay. [91:40] And then, the bull market really hits, [91:42] the banana zone period when things go [91:44] bananas, prices go vertical. And you [91:46] will see people online saying, "Well, I [91:48] made a million dollars today cuz I [91:50] bought this [91:51] meme coin." And you will lose your mind, [91:54] and you will start buying all the stupid [91:56] [ __ ] and you'll go so far out the risk [91:57] curve, [91:58] and then, [92:00] when the music stops, [92:02] the stuff you own will be worth nothing, [92:06] and the more quality tokens will retain [92:09] their value. The other thing that people [92:11] do in that journey [92:12] is use leverage. [92:14] What is What is leverage? Leverage is [92:16] when you borrow more money to buy more [92:18] of the asset. [92:20] So, I now borrow money to buy more [92:22] Ethereum cuz I want outperform you and I [92:23] want to make more money cuz I'm really [92:25] greedy. The 160% a year that Ethereum [92:28] does as returns since 2015 [92:32] is not good enough for me. I want to [92:34] make it 400, 500% a year. Stupid, right? [92:38] And what happens is you borrow money to [92:40] do it. It's leverage. [92:41] Futures markets, perpetuals, there's a [92:44] whole bunch of ways of doing this or [92:45] even borrowing on the bloody credit [92:46] card, whatever way people will do this, [92:49] and you really have to know what you're [92:51] doing because the whole game, if this [92:54] technology [92:55] is going to last over time and it's [92:57] going from two trillion to a hundred [92:59] trillion, you have one job, [93:01] not to lose your tokens. [93:04] One job. You can do nothing [93:07] like you're doing, [93:08] and you will make an extremely good [93:10] amount of money out of it. [93:12] Your one job is to not [ __ ] that up. I [93:15] have a have a bit of a theory. [93:17] And this theory is very naive and narrow [93:19] and based on the smallest sample group [93:21] in the world. It is I have six friends. [93:24] Um I actually I'm one of the six, so I [93:26] have five friends, five of my best [93:27] friends, and we've all taken different [93:29] attitudes towards crypto. And my friend [93:31] who is most heavily involved in crypto [93:34] has made the least money [93:37] and is arguably [93:40] the least rich. Mhm. And it's his life. [93:44] And I think it's because of what you've [93:45] described, whereas my position has [93:46] always been I invest in this one coin, I [93:48] don't sell it, and I just buy more when [93:49] I can over the last six years. I don't [93:51] really pay attention. Frankly, if you [93:53] ask me to log in to see I the last time [93:55] I checked what it was worth, I couldn't [93:57] tell you. Couldn't tell you what it was [93:58] worth. Actually, I'd struggle to log in. [94:00] It's been so long since I've logged in [94:01] and looked at it. And I think my returns [94:03] have outpaced his because of that. [94:05] Yeah. [94:06] I think that's right. And so, [94:09] you know, this is all the conversation [94:11] we've been having, [94:12] the secular trend, [94:14] the opportunity, the skill set, then [94:17] it's the execution of that thing, then [94:19] it's not to [ __ ] it up. And what you've [94:21] done is not [ __ ] it up. He invested in [94:23] Luna. [94:23] your [94:24] seed phrases elsewhere, so nobody can [94:27] You've got no single point of failure. [94:29] You've got it stored privately yourself. [94:34] You have it in a large one of the top [94:36] two. [94:37] There's probably three that [94:39] all low risk in terms of the chances [94:42] that the use gets abandoned in the next [94:44] five years, [94:46] Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana. [94:48] They're pretty safe. So, everyone should [94:50] knock their socks off. 80% of their [94:52] portfolio, [94:53] do that, and you'll make money. [94:55] 90% of portfolio, don't use leverage. [94:58] Then, we're all humans. Give yourself [95:01] 10% and do the [ __ ] what you want. [95:04] Most of the time, you'll find out that [95:05] that 10% goes to zero, which is fine. [95:07] It's a good lesson. You don't care cuz [95:08] you've made plenty of money on the rest. [95:11] But, if you are that genius who can find [95:13] the thousand X meme coin, knock your [95:15] socks off. Here's why I think that [95:17] genius ends up cuz it's funny cuz the [95:20] friend I'm describing, he's around He's [95:22] in Dubai. So, he There's a a lot of them [95:24] out there that you I mean, I said Dubai, [95:25] you understand what I'm talking about. [95:27] Um they all invested in Luna, they lost [95:28] their [ __ ] shirt. That he was telling [95:30] me about his boy who he works with who [95:32] made, I don't know, tens of millions [95:34] betting on these meme coins. And then [95:36] now, he tells me that exact same guy is [95:38] broke and is in a a lot of trouble [95:40] because the mentality that makes you [95:43] go in pursuit of these real high risk [95:45] bets, these are like meme coins and [95:46] stuff, [95:47] is also the same mentality and mindset [95:49] that makes you lose the thousand X [95:51] return, the ten million dollars you made [95:55] um on the other side. And I think the [95:56] psychology of money book talks about [95:58] that as well. It like case studies, [96:00] Morgan Housel's book, case studies, the [96:02] guy who like bet against the like the [96:04] contrarian that made the billion is also [96:06] the same contrarian that ends up losing [96:08] it again in the next cycle. [96:10] So, I feel like I've seen that a lot. [96:14] The problem with the meme coin thing, it [96:15] is a casino. Yeah. What is good is there [96:18] are periods of time where where [96:20] everybody in the casino makes money. [96:21] Yeah. [96:22] Right, which is unlike casinos cuz [96:24] there's trends in financial markets. [96:26] And no one's taking out so it's paper [96:27] returns. [96:28] And then, [96:30] a lot of this stuff goes to zero. So, [96:31] that with NFTs last cycle, we've seen it [96:33] with a whole bunch of tokens, which is [96:35] where you need to be very careful of [96:37] latching onto a token and just keeping [96:39] hold of it because some of these won't [96:40] survive. You're lucky you're in ETH and [96:42] not in something else, EOS that was [96:45] around in 2017, [96:47] right? It's like you're stuck. So, [96:50] you need to be careful. [96:52] Um [96:53] speculation does work for periods of [96:55] time. It's better than actually lottery [96:57] tickets and generally better than the [96:59] casino, but only for periods of time, [97:01] and then you will lose everything. [97:03] Somebody's going to come into that [97:04] casino and sweep every table, and only [97:07] 5% of the people are going to be left [97:08] with money. So, just think of it that [97:10] way. So, if you want to have fun, people [97:13] But, the people who do it the most are [97:14] the people who live off adrenaline. [97:16] Yeah. Right? It's the adrenaline [97:18] junkies. They usually terminally online. [97:20] They probably like to [97:23] gamble in other ways, sports betting. [97:25] It You know, it's an I'm not really that [97:28] person. So, I don't trade. [97:32] Yes, I own a few meme coins cuz I enjoy [97:34] the fun of the culture and seeing that [97:36] culture develop, but just keep it [97:39] simple, stupid. Is this why men are so [97:42] drawn to this? I was thinking about the [97:43] gambling statistics and like something [97:45] like 95 or 98% of gambling addicts are [97:49] men. [97:50] And I was thinking, you know, how does [97:51] this overlap with like their sense of [97:52] purpose, community? [97:56] I think men feel hugely under pressure [98:00] to be successful, [98:02] to provide. [98:04] There's a societal [98:06] thing about what a man does and what he [98:08] should do and how you measure success. [98:12] That [98:15] even in sports, it's kind of it's very [98:18] competitive to be a man, [98:20] but it's also somewhat of a lonely [98:21] pursuit in that respect cuz men aren't [98:23] very good at talking about their [98:24] feelings and their fears and all the [98:26] [ __ ] you bring in your head. [98:28] So, some gambling [98:31] is to do with that desperate need to get [98:33] ahead. I I need to make this work. [98:37] But, then it becomes somewhat of an [98:39] addiction because of the adrenaline. [98:41] Dopamine is a very, very powerful drug, [98:44] and we search for all day, which is what [98:45] the internet's all about. That's [98:47] behavioral economics. This is what they [98:49] discovered is you trigger dopamine, and [98:51] you can make all animals do something. [98:54] Famously, Skinner and the rats, but [98:56] humans and the internet and like buttons [98:59] and anger and all of these things. [99:02] So, [99:04] there's parts of that. [99:06] It's partly also [99:09] male society is about [99:12] betting and proving your prowess, [99:14] gladiatorial. So, it's a whole [99:15] complicated thing of what makes men do [99:17] it. [99:19] But, the reason, for example, in crypto [99:21] it's so male [99:25] it's because we're driven by that need [99:27] to be the breadwinner, even though [99:29] society has moved on from that. [99:32] And we're seeing fantastically a rise of [99:34] women in the blockchain space. [99:36] Um [99:38] and a changing of that crypto bro [99:40] culture that was there. If you follow [99:43] some of the crypto Bitcoin Twitter pages [99:45] that are the confession pages, and [99:47] people can write in and confess what [99:49] happened to them. [99:51] It's often really sad and heartbreaking [99:53] hearing about this father who has three [99:55] young kids under the age of seven who [99:58] invested in some meme coin, lost it all, [100:01] and now his wife wants to know where the [100:02] money is, and he's got nothing to show [100:04] for it. And I've seen these [100:05] documentaries. I've even kind of heard [100:06] of these stories in in my extended [100:08] network where like my personal trainer [100:10] put 6,000 pounds of his very scarce [100:13] money into some coin, and it went to [100:16] zero, and he's lost it all. And it [100:18] the suicides in the in the bear market [100:21] when people have put too much in and [100:22] they've lost it all. Much of the reason [100:24] why I think people don't invest in [100:25] crypto anymore is either they've heard [100:27] one of these stories or they are one of [100:28] those stories. And I think there's so [100:30] there's a kind of a disclaimer and kind [100:31] of a warning here which needs to be [100:32] Well, this is the don't [ __ ] this up [100:34] thesis. Buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, and [100:37] Solana. [100:39] One of those three, preferably all [100:40] three. [100:43] And that will stop you going to zero. [100:46] But, it could go up. It could crash. It [100:47] could crash 70% or something. Okay, so [100:49] that's [100:50] a conversation about time horizon. How [100:52] long should I be prepared to hold it for [100:54] to make a return? Well, it depends [100:57] what return and for what. [100:59] Remember we talked about, you know, what [101:01] part of your destiny you're trying to [101:03] to manifest here. Which part of your [101:05] lifestyle chips are you trying to cash [101:07] in? So, if you're trying to get rich [101:09] quick, I I want to make loads of money [101:11] by next year. [101:14] I'd rather you didn't [101:16] do this. [101:18] Um I don't think that is a sensible, [101:21] intelligent way of living your life. [101:24] You're going to take too much risk, and [101:26] you're going to susceptible to lose it [101:27] all. If you said, "Hey, Raoul, listen, [101:29] what I want is I want in 5 years time to [101:32] have made a decent return on my money, [101:35] you know, three, four, five times my [101:37] money." [101:38] I'm like, "Yeah, [101:40] that's fine." Okay, I'm going to ask you [101:41] for a price prediction. [101:43] No. You don't do You don't do price [101:44] predictions? Not anymore. And the reason [101:46] being is because [101:48] a lot of people listen to what I say, [101:51] and therefore [101:53] they then build a mental model around a [101:56] price. Mhm. And what you do is then you [101:59] create a false [102:02] comfort in what you're doing. But, Raoul [102:04] says it's going to X. [102:07] And that stops you doing the work to [102:09] make yourself test anything. [102:12] And then you start extrapolating, "Well, [102:14] I put 10 grand in, and if Raoul's right, [102:17] I'm going to have a million dollars." [102:20] Like the whole thing becomes this [102:21] emotional journey. Mhm. [102:24] And so, I tried to stop doing it because [102:27] the the best thing I can say to people [102:29] is, "Listen, 2032, 2034, that is not [102:32] long away. 10 years. [102:35] This asset class is going to go from 2 [102:36] trillion [102:37] to 100 trillion. [102:40] Right? That [102:41] is a huge return. [102:44] Now, [102:45] some of the coins in that space will do [102:49] a multiple of that. That simple thesis [102:51] is why I built X fund, the asset [102:53] management company Exponential Age, was [102:55] just to capture this trend, to let Well, [102:57] unfortunately, it's only for high net [102:59] worth investors and institutional [103:00] investors, but just let them go on that [103:02] journey, get the hedge funds to take the [103:03] risk and figure it out, and do that. [103:06] But, if people just do that, give me 10 [103:08] years. [103:09] Just give me 10 years. [103:12] And [103:13] if you do it 10 years and you're [103:15] sensible, you'll be able to take a whole [103:17] chunk of money out every few years [103:20] because it's quite cyclical. It moves [103:22] maybe every 4 years, and so you can take [103:24] a chunk out, [103:26] cash cash it in the lifestyle bank, [103:29] and keep moving towards that goal. [103:31] Well, as you were speaking, I figured [103:33] out your price prediction based on your [103:35] prediction of how big the asset class [103:37] will get. [103:38] So, you gave me enough time to ask AI [103:41] to do the math for me. And it says if [103:43] Bitcoin has a 40% market dominance, the [103:45] market cap of Bitcoin will be roughly 40 [103:47] trillion. If there are approximately 90 [103:48] million Bitcoins mined, the price would [103:50] be around 2.1 million per Bitcoin. [103:53] At a 50% dominance, the price per [103:54] Bitcoin would be 2.6 million per [103:56] Bitcoin. Today, as we sit here, the [103:58] price of Bitcoin is $62,000. [104:03] So, if your prediction that the asset [104:04] class gets to 100 trillion, and if [104:07] Ethereum is 15% of that, [104:10] then each Ethereum will be worth [104:11] $125,000 [104:13] per Ethereum. And today, it's worth [104:15] about $2,400. [104:16] then what I do when I'm faced with [104:17] something like this, when I first bought [104:19] Bitcoin in [104:21] I first wrote I wrote the first ever [104:23] Bitcoin strategy piece and made a price [104:25] prediction [104:26] based on [104:28] what I understood about Bitcoin back in [104:29] 2013, [104:32] 12. [104:33] It was the first ever piece written by [104:34] anybody. [104:35] And I said, "Listen, I think it's worth [104:37] a million dollars." [104:39] And it was trading at $200. [104:41] And I had some [104:42] basic math, but the same kind of idea [104:45] using trends and everything else. And I [104:46] said, "I'm assuming I'm wrong by 90%. [104:49] Still worth 100 grand, and it's [104:51] currently $200. It's the best trade [104:53] you'll ever do in your entire life." [104:55] And that proved out to be true. [104:57] So, let's assume that Raoul is a [ __ ] [104:59] and I'm 50% wrong. [105:01] That's a 50 trillion dollar asset class. [105:03] You get to a million dollar Bitcoin. [105:06] Ish, right? Mhm. [105:08] And assuming whether it's that dominance [105:09] or less dominance, and what happens to [105:11] it. [105:11] But, you can see the magnitude of the [105:13] returns. [105:16] So, that's a what, 15X return [105:19] in Bitcoin. What if you're wrong? [105:22] You've staked so much of your life [105:25] on this. You've invested so much of your [105:26] own money in it. What if you're wrong [105:28] about this asset class? [105:30] You couldn't have predicted Bitcoin [105:32] would be so dominant 20 years ago. We [105:34] couldn't have predicted even 5 years ago [105:35] that AI would take hold. These things [105:37] come out of nowhere, and they change the [105:39] paradigm. What if you're wrong? [105:40] I'm an investor, so being wrong is part [105:42] of the thing. What's hard is via helping [105:46] so many people at Real Vision [105:48] and elsewhere, [105:50] it is a weight I carry on my shoulders [105:53] because I'm trying to bring as many [105:55] people across the line and unfuck their [105:58] future and all of these things. [106:02] And I ask myself those questions, and I [106:03] go back to the simple thing. There was [106:05] the graph of the adoption of this. [106:08] If that's going to stop, [106:10] we've got an issue. [106:12] But then, how are we going to solve [106:14] problems of [106:15] digital identity [106:17] or contracts in a globalized world or [106:21] any of these things without this [106:23] technology? [106:25] I I can't do it, right? It's like a [106:27] magic technology. [106:29] The Byzantine generals problem was a [106:31] real, complicated problem that nobody [106:34] had solved until [106:37] Bitcoin. Maybe AI creates a better [106:38] blockchain. Maybe AI creates a better [106:40] system. [106:43] Yes, it could do. [106:44] But, how long away is that before we [106:47] adopt it it adopts that technology, you [106:49] know, some quantum [106:51] cryptographic, whatever, right? Is there [106:53] a need for it yet? [106:55] Why are we disrupting a new industry [106:57] that's not been disrupted? [106:58] But, yes. No investment comes without [107:01] risk. [107:02] Crypto comes with [107:04] that risk, [107:05] the risk that governments will try and [107:07] shut it down, even though they've tried, [107:09] and it's like a cork approach cuz it's [107:11] distributed, and it's everywhere. [107:14] Yeah, there's the the risk the [107:16] blockchain you invest in [107:18] becomes less valuable. [107:20] There is the cyclicality of this asset [107:22] that can fall 70%, 80% every three for [107:26] every 4 years. You have to deal with [107:28] that. [107:29] There's the risk that you lose your [107:30] coins. There's the [107:32] There's all the risks in the world, and [107:34] that's why you get paid the return. [107:36] So, I don't There is no certainty in [107:39] this world. I live in a probabilistic [107:40] world. But, if you can show me the world [107:42] is going to be less digital than today, [107:45] and you can show me a better way of [107:46] dealing with a lot of these structural [107:48] problems that we have, [107:50] and you can show me that the community, [107:52] the groundswell of individuals. Don't [107:55] forget, this is driven by individuals. [107:58] We front run the institutions. [108:01] The institutions [108:03] weren't allowed to invest in it. [108:05] But, we've been able to put our money in [108:06] before they did. We've created it. If I [108:09] see any of those factors is changing, [108:11] then I worry about it. [108:12] So, you're telling me that if I'm [108:13] earning an income right now, I shouldn't [108:15] hold these pieces of paper [108:18] that the central bank, my bank, is [108:21] giving me. I shouldn't keep cash in my [108:23] bank account. [108:24] Everybody has different needs, and I'm [108:26] not saying don't Yeah, have where you're [108:27] sitting at home. [108:29] Look, everything up to about 100 grand [108:30] is protected. So, you're okay. [108:34] You're not going to lose your money [108:36] that way. Mhm. [108:38] But, you'll lose it another way. [108:41] And that's the debasement of currency. [108:43] It's time to take a moment to reflect on [108:45] our sponsor, Whoop's Sober October [108:47] challenge. I know thousands of you got [108:49] involved in the Sober October challenge. [108:51] My inbox has been flooded with messages [108:52] sharing the changes you've experienced, [108:54] which is amazing. 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[109:33] I've never shared this before, but I [109:35] have this big piece of glass and iPad in [109:36] front of me as I'm doing the [109:37] conversations, and some of you have [109:38] asked me what tools I use to help with [109:41] the research process, but also to keep [109:43] my thoughts in check while someone's [109:44] speaking at me for potentially 3 hours [109:46] at a time. And I'm happy to say that the [109:48] tool I've been using for the last couple [109:49] of years are now a sponsor of this [109:51] podcast. It's an app that combines AI [109:53] with the ease of handwritten [109:55] note-taking. It's an app called [109:57] GoodNotes. Essentially, it makes my idea [109:59] capturing process before the [110:00] conversation happens organized, but also [110:04] it allows me to annotate research [110:05] documents and scribble down notes in [110:07] real time on anything that's happening [110:08] in the conversation. But the part I [110:10] value the most is that all my notes, as [110:12] I'm taking them, are synced up with my [110:14] producer Jack's computer, who sits in [110:15] the corner of the room, which keeps this [110:17] open dialogue between me and him in real [110:19] time. If you'd like to explore [110:21] GoodNotes, head to goodnotes.com/doac [110:24] and start your extended 30-day free [110:25] trial today. Or sign up for a yearly [110:28] subscription of just $9.99. Head to [110:30] goodnotes.com/doac. [110:33] So, what's the debasement of currency? [110:35] Really simply, we talked about in a [110:37] digital world, [110:39] everything goes to zero in value. [110:45] That is debasement. [110:47] What it means is [110:49] too much of something makes it less [110:50] valuable. [110:52] I can come out of the desert. [110:55] I will pay you anything for a bottle of [110:57] water. [110:59] Give me a million bottles of water, [111:01] I'll pay you nothing for them. [111:03] All right, there's too much of it. [111:05] Now, how you say, "Well, how can there [111:06] be too much money?" [111:09] But what happens is the economic system [111:14] revalues things in this weird world, in [111:17] this weird way, [111:20] by debasement. So, debasement in the old [111:22] times was, if we take one of those [111:25] gold coins, [111:27] debasement was that was, let's say, 1 oz [111:29] of gold. [111:31] Then I was the Roman emperor, [111:33] I would just snip off a little bit of [111:34] the gold. You wouldn't notice, and you'd [111:37] still value it. [111:39] Try and pretend it was the 1 oz. [111:42] But somebody else would say, "No, no, [111:44] no. [111:45] It's actually worth less. [111:46] I've taken that sliver as the emperor, [111:50] and I've used it and spent it on [111:53] sports cars, [111:54] and [111:55] you've now got a less valuable coin. [111:58] And the country has less value. So, the [112:00] money is less valuable. It's called [112:02] debasement. [112:03] The more of it [112:06] that's around, [112:07] in the electronic age where you just [112:08] press the button and you create money, [112:13] then what happens is the value of money [112:15] goes down. [112:16] So, let's say, people can understand it [112:18] simply as, let's say you go on holiday [112:21] and you go to [112:23] a country that has a [112:25] very weak currency. Let's say it was it [112:26] used to be Mexico, let's say. You're an [112:28] American, you went to Mexico, everything [112:30] was cheap [112:31] because the currency kept going down. [112:33] But for Mexicans, it actually got [112:35] expensive cuz the value the purchasing [112:38] power [112:39] of your [112:41] um peso went down, [112:43] and you couldn't buy as much with your [112:45] peso. [112:47] What we're doing [112:48] is ever since 2008, [112:51] the whole world, all the big economies [112:53] in the world, [112:55] hit 100%. All the governments hit 100% [112:58] of GDP in debt. So, 100% of the economic [113:02] value of that country was in debt. [113:06] And that means [113:08] that just paying the interest on that [113:10] debt [113:11] starts to become a burden. So, let's say [113:13] your [113:14] your economy's growing at 2% a year. [113:17] Let's say your interest rate was 2%. [113:20] Well, 100% of the economic growth [113:22] basically goes to pay the interest [113:23] payments. [113:25] Cuz somebody needs to generate the money [113:26] to pay them. [113:28] But [113:30] at the time corporations [113:33] were over 100% of GDP in debt, and so [113:35] were households, 2008. Everybody was in [113:37] a debt orgy. [113:39] The financial system was just lending [113:40] everybody. [113:42] And then it all fell apart. [113:45] And so, what they stopped doing was [113:46] really corporations and households [113:48] stopped um [113:50] borrowing as much money. They in fact [113:52] restricted money to us. [113:55] So, in these economic times, we've [113:56] actually been able to borrow less money [113:58] while house prices have gone up by [113:59] debasement. I'll show you that in a sec. [114:02] And the governments have taken on this [114:05] obligation. So, they've been massively [114:06] growing their debts. [114:08] And they reset interest rates to zero [114:11] to kind of [114:12] give them a chance of paying debts back [114:14] in 2008. [114:15] And only recently have they have they [114:17] really risen. [114:19] But they've still got all of these [114:21] interest payments to pay. For now, the [114:23] US economy is [114:26] 400 [114:27] well, 380% of GDP in debt. It's [114:30] staggering considering the size of this [114:32] economy. The world, [114:34] the entire world is 400% of GDP in debt. [114:38] All right, we've gone so far beyond [114:41] what is sensible anymore that it's [114:43] become incredibly fragile. [114:45] So, the management of the payments of [114:47] the debt and the debt itself [114:49] is the number one [114:52] focus of the government and the central [114:54] banks. [114:56] Because [114:57] if it all goes to [ __ ] it all goes to [115:00] [ __ ] Everyone's going to lose their [115:02] savings, every business goes under, [115:04] every government goes under, there's no [115:06] payment of services, the retirees lose [115:08] everything. It is unfathomable. And I [115:10] know many people online talk about, [115:12] "Yeah, we should just let it all go." [115:15] They have no comprehension of what that [115:17] will do in a world that's 400% in debt. [115:19] It's basically a 75% wipeout of every [115:22] single asset. [115:26] And all the [115:27] retirees and all your savings and all [115:28] your pensions and everything. [115:31] So, the answer is [115:33] well, let's just print some more money [115:34] to pay the bills. That's you taking a [115:37] credit card to pay off your credit card [115:40] payments. [115:41] Now, when you control the money, you can [115:44] kind of do that cuz nobody's going to [115:45] tap you on the shoulder. [115:47] So, what they do is they start printing [115:50] money. [115:51] The first they used to use the the [115:52] balance sheet, which meant that the [115:54] Federal Reserve or the Bank of England [115:56] or whoever [115:57] would buy bonds from the market and kind [115:59] of [116:01] basically take them off the market. So, [116:03] it meant there was less debt around in [116:04] the market. [116:06] But they changed the thing. They they [116:07] now have something more pernicious [116:08] called liquidity. You can't see it. [116:10] They've got different mechanisms that [116:12] they put this into the system. [116:15] And basically, everybody, all of the [116:17] central banks are doing it at the same [116:18] time, and they're also all in agreement [116:20] that they have to do it. And this is all [116:22] driven by the aging demographics and the [116:24] debt problems that it all caused. [116:27] And so, what we've got [116:29] is every government having every [116:31] 4 years or so [116:34] to print a lot of money. Why 4 years? [116:36] Because in 2008, they all reset their [116:39] interest rates to zero. [116:41] They then went and borrowed money 3 to 5 [116:43] years out. [116:45] And every 4 years, [116:46] the cycle [116:48] comes up and they start injecting money, [116:50] liquidity. Okay, so, what does this all [116:53] mean? Yeah, people watching this are [116:54] like, "Yeah, I I [116:55] I kind of know what you're talking [116:56] about." What it means [116:58] is that on average, [117:00] your money goes down in purchasing power [117:03] versus scarce assets [117:06] by 8% a year. [117:08] And then you've usually got, let's say, [117:10] a 3% inflation rate. You've got 11% of [117:14] your money [117:15] is being devalued every year. Your [117:17] future self is getting poorer by 11%. [117:20] All right, remember we hit we talked [117:21] about the future self? And if you buy [117:23] the S&P 500, what was it making? About [117:25] 11% a year. So, if you buy the S&P 500, [117:29] your future self is not going to get any [117:31] richer for the risk you've taken locking [117:33] up your money for 10 years or 20 years. [117:36] Because of this inflation. Because of [117:37] this debasement. [117:38] Debasement. Now, people confuse [117:40] inflation and debasement. [117:42] I would call this debasement of [117:43] currency. [117:45] And so, this is happening at 8% a year, [117:47] which is why we're all feeling so [117:49] [ __ ] [117:50] It's happening all these assets keep [117:52] going up. Real estate keeps going up to [117:54] offset this. [117:55] Now, what I did, once I realized this, [117:57] something I call the everything code, is [117:58] a big thesis around how this all [118:01] happened and what it all means. What's [118:03] happening is basically the aging [118:04] population is driving debt to GDP. It's [118:08] driving the government debt. [118:10] And then the liquidity is paying the [118:13] interest payments. So, it's this [118:14] economic machine that the world has [118:17] become. [118:18] It's perfectly cyclical. [118:20] It's [118:21] perfectly predictable. It's not going [118:23] away until we have this technological [118:25] revolution we talked about. [118:27] And so, [118:29] everybody has to protect themselves. So, [118:30] once I found this thing called the [118:32] everything code, [118:33] I started thinking, "Okay, if this, [118:36] let's say, 11% [118:39] rate, the hurdle rate of money that my [118:41] future self is getting poorer every year [118:44] by, [118:45] what do I invest in?" So, I started [118:47] dividing everything by that. [118:49] And the S&P 500 doesn't make you any [118:50] money. Real estate doesn't really make [118:52] you any money. Gold actually lost you [118:54] money. It's supposed to maintain your [118:55] purchasing power. [118:58] I'm like, "Holy [ __ ] [119:00] There were only two assets in the world [119:03] that outperformed this. [119:05] Technology, crypto. [119:07] The NASDAQ was doing 18% a year [119:10] and crypto was doing 150 plus. You know, [119:12] Solana was doing 250 [119:14] % a year, even with three 80% drawdowns. [119:19] So, this is what got me to change my [119:21] entire investing game from being a [119:23] broad-based investor [119:25] with you know, a balanced portfolio [119:29] to Okay, there's only two bets in the [119:31] world. There There are literally two [119:32] bets in the world, technology and [119:34] crypto. [119:35] And [119:36] the NASDAQ is down 99.97% [119:40] versus Bitcoin since 2012. How much of [119:43] your personal money do you invest in [119:45] crypto? [119:45] 100% of my liquid net worth and it has [119:48] been 5 years. [119:50] Have you done well? [119:52] Yeah. [119:53] Yeah, very well. I've I've not made any [119:56] major mistakes. [119:57] I mean, I've been in this journey since [119:58] 2013. I mean, I have made mistakes. [120:01] My mistake was I bought it at 200. I put [120:05] not bad size betting considering how [120:07] unproven it was in 2013. It was how [120:10] unproven it was. [120:12] And it went up [120:14] it went up [120:16] five x or something in the first 3 [120:19] months of me buying it. I'm like, I'm [120:20] the best investor in the world. This is [120:22] amazing. Then it fell 87% and I'm like, [120:25] I had this long-term view it's going to [120:26] 100,000 and that [120:29] um I would just not look at the price. I [120:32] should be doing, right? [120:33] And fine and then [120:37] 2017, [120:38] it was now at 2,500. I was up like 10, [120:41] 12 x which was amazing. I'd never had a [120:44] bet up 10 or 12 x and [120:47] and there was some weird stuff going on. [120:50] There was another Bitcoin. It's going to [120:51] be the code have been forked and I was [120:53] like, I don't really understand this. [120:55] I'm going to take my money. So, that was [120:57] about March, April 20 [121:00] 17. [121:02] By December, it had hit 20,000. [121:06] It had gone up another 10 x that year. [121:10] Then it collapsed down 85% [121:14] and then I bought it in 2020 [121:18] during the pandemic. [121:20] Into that big sell-off where it fell [121:21] 50%. So, I bought it cheap. I sold it on [121:24] the way up. [121:26] I then bought it when it sold off. [121:30] If I'd have just held onto my original [121:31] bet [121:32] I'd have made five times as much money. [121:35] And if I'd have listened to myself, [121:36] which is every 4 years when you have [121:38] these big sell-offs you just try and [121:40] add as much money as possible. I'd have [121:42] made 25 to times as much money. So, I've [121:45] even though I got it right, I [ __ ] it [121:47] up, too. [121:49] Now, you've said that the best trade [121:51] is always [121:53] quality of life. Yes. [121:56] If your account is full of quality of [121:57] life and quality of life experiences, [121:59] that's the greatest trade on Earth and [122:01] I'll continue to do that trade until the [122:03] day that I die. [122:06] What do you mean? [122:09] What is the purpose of life? [122:12] Now, we can get very existential about [122:15] stuff and you actually go down these [122:17] paths a lot with AI and universal [122:19] consciousness and a lot of other stuff. [122:21] But basically [122:22] let's just assume we're humans. [122:24] Let's just assume maybe we've got one [122:26] shot on this Earth. [122:28] Well, you might as well make the best of [122:30] it. [122:32] And people have got to remember money is [122:34] just a scoring system [122:37] that allows you privileges. [122:41] And people lose track of that and think [122:43] money is the privilege itself. [122:45] The privilege is freedom. [122:48] The privilege is being able to live [122:49] where you want to live. The privilege is [122:52] being surrounded by the people you want [122:53] to be surrounded by. The privilege is [122:55] being able to bring up a family. [122:56] Whatever your value system is [122:59] those are the things. [123:01] So [123:03] for me it's [123:06] I like living in nature. [123:09] And that's probably key thing number [123:11] one, but being connected. [123:14] So, when I bought a house in Spain, that [123:17] was a huge quality of life thing cuz [123:19] I've got a security of a house that I [123:21] own [123:23] in nature [123:25] in good climate. Okay, I'm I'm fine. [123:29] But really experiences are even more [123:32] powerful. If there is a true currency in [123:34] the world, it's experiences. You know, [123:36] as I said, I've just come back from [123:38] living in the remote wild of Zambia. [123:40] That is an experience that is incredibly [123:42] valuable to me. And I've done a lot of [123:44] these. [123:45] That is what it's all for. [123:47] This understanding and seeing of how the [123:50] world is and the beauty and the marvel, [123:52] the people, understanding people and not [123:54] being fearful of people and [123:56] and not thinking about [123:58] cultures except in terms of Oh, well, [124:01] that's their culture and that's their [124:02] culture as opposed to culture good, [124:03] culture bad. [124:06] Friends, yeah, all of these things, [124:08] these are the valuable things. You can't [124:10] buy any of them. [124:12] You have to physically go and spend the [124:14] time [124:15] and be uncomfortable. I've always said [124:18] there is your comfort zone [124:20] and where the magic happens and these [124:23] two Venn diagrams don't intersect. You [124:25] have to be outside your comfort zone [124:28] to feel the magic. If not, you're just [124:30] doing life by numbers. Do I need money [124:33] to have those experiences? [124:35] No. So, what's the point in me doing all [124:37] this, you know, Bitcoin investing [124:41] focusing and sacrificing my 20s? [124:43] You need some money. [124:44] You don't. You can solve for it without. [124:47] But it's hard if you're living [124:49] in Ohio [124:51] or Birmingham or wherever you are, [124:53] right? [124:54] To get some of these things. It might be [124:57] I want to be warm and dry. I want to, [125:00] you know [125:01] grow my own fruit and vegetable. [125:02] Whatever it is, it doesn't matter, [125:04] right? You can solve it by [125:06] a number of different ways. But really [125:09] for the average person, I say this is [125:11] like [125:12] if you want to live on a beach you can [125:14] either become a billionaire and live in [125:16] St. Barts [125:18] or you can go to Latin America and live [125:21] on the beach for virtually nothing. And [125:23] if you're living in an internet age, you [125:24] can make it happen. But then what [125:26] happens is maybe you want some more [125:28] creature comforts. Maybe you do this. [125:30] But I don't say that we should all be [125:32] the Buddhist Zen master and say we need [125:35] nothing. We can reject everything. [125:38] But if we break it down to what is the [125:40] feeling that I want [125:42] then you can solve it with money on [125:44] without money and you won't be [125:45] disappointed because remember the very [125:47] beginning of our conversation [125:49] is what makes people unhappy [125:51] is when their vision of their future [125:53] self [125:54] and their current state don't meet. [125:57] Now, if your vision of your future self [126:00] is remember I said I want that that [126:03] peninsula in Spain with that family. So, [126:06] what are the component parts there? I [126:07] like sea. I like uh social life of [126:11] people. Uh I like natural beauty and [126:14] with somebody I love. Okay. [126:16] That can be solved 100 different ways. [126:19] But in your life, did you have to shift [126:21] from the building zone, the building [126:24] season of life to then the kind of [126:26] enjoyment season of life? [126:28] I did [126:29] in the middle. [126:32] Which was the lesson I learned. [126:33] Is I had done the investment banking and [126:36] the hedge fund thing. I then opted out [126:38] of the rat race. I wasn't the richest [126:39] guy in the world, but I thought, you [126:41] know what? If I can get a source of [126:42] income I can live and I can grow my [126:44] olives and almonds and I lived in a [126:46] beautiful house on the side of a [126:47] national park near a beach town in [126:49] Spain. [126:50] I've won the lottery. [126:52] And I started Global Macro Investor. [126:55] That ended up becoming a um a much [126:57] bigger thing cuz the financial crisis [126:59] and I predicted it and got all that [127:00] stuff right. Um and so [127:04] what I found is I'd semi-retired [127:08] and I was surrounded by people [127:10] who weren't really [127:11] stimulating, intellectually stimulating. [127:13] I made some great friends. [127:15] But you wouldn't have a conversation [127:16] like this. [127:18] And so, I felt isolated. [127:21] And then, you know, you live on [127:22] adrenaline if you're an entrepreneur or [127:24] you're in financial markets and so, you [127:25] end up going out to bars and nightclub, [127:27] you know [127:28] and I'm like I looked at it and I've [127:30] been there 10 years. I'm like, I got to [127:32] get out of this because I'm excited by [127:34] life. I'm excited. I want to do the [127:36] entrepreneur thing. I love investing. I [127:38] just want to be around people who also [127:40] did it. And but by chance, I ended up [127:42] building a house in the Cayman Islands [127:44] um cuz it was one of my dreams. I wanted [127:46] to drop a house on tropical beach. I [127:48] love diving, all of this stuff. And that [127:50] was the signal to me to go, [ __ ] it. I'm [127:53] moving to Cayman. I started Real Vision [127:55] and I started the entrepreneur's journey [127:57] and now I've got four companies and I'm [127:59] busier than I've ever been in my life. [128:01] I'm very happy doing it. But it's a [128:04] chapter again. [128:06] And it'll give me the lifestyle ratchet, [128:07] but also the intellectual ratchet that I [128:10] wanted to prove to myself that I can do [128:12] some of these things. We have a closing [128:14] tradition on this podcast where the last [128:15] guest leaves a question for the next [128:16] guest not knowing who they're going to [128:17] be leaving it for. [128:20] I've never revealed the last question in [128:22] terms of who's written it. [128:24] But I'm going to reveal it in this case. [128:26] This question is written by Boris [128:27] Johnson. [128:29] And the question was, have you ever [128:31] tried to sack someone and ended the [128:33] meeting having accidentally promoted [128:35] them? [128:40] Um Boris is speaking from experience [128:41] there. [128:43] You know, I think [128:46] I probably have. [128:49] I think I probably have. [128:51] And that goes back to one of my things [128:54] that I've had to learn is how to have [128:56] difficult conversations. [128:58] I'm English. [129:00] And my mom's Dutch. We're also quite [129:02] evasive. We don't like [129:04] drama. [129:05] My wife's American, so she's taught me [129:07] that like you just go straight in for [129:09] the kill. And I've avoided tough [129:12] conversations. [129:14] And so [129:16] I've probably ended up in that [129:17] situation. [129:19] Or something close to it. Does it not I [129:22] have as well. Of course I have. And I'm [129:24] just like but this is the lesson I'm [129:25] trying to learn is [129:27] you need to be more [129:30] if it's a tough conversation, just do [129:31] it. [129:32] Amen. [129:34] Thank you, Raoul. Um I think everybody [129:36] should go and check out your channel, [129:37] which I've watched for many, many years [129:39] now. I think it's the In fact, it's the [129:40] only channel I go looking for when I'm [129:41] looking for advice on [129:43] anything crypto-related, the macro [129:45] environment, inflation, all of these [129:47] things. The only channel that I trust [129:48] and that I go looking for, and I really, [129:49] really mean this when I say it, has [129:50] always been yours because I think you've [129:52] provided um nuance in a way that's [129:55] accessible to the average person. And a [129:57] lot of these finance channels are very [129:58] difficult to like understand the [130:00] terminology. They kind of skip past that [130:02] part. But what you've done so well is [130:04] made all of these subjects so accessible [130:05] for everybody. [130:06] Um and I can't imagine how many millions [130:08] of people you've um helped open their [130:10] eyes to the state of currency debasement [130:13] and you know, some of the myths around [130:15] how to create and and save your wealth. [130:17] And I think that's um [130:19] a mission that is so incredibly [130:20] important because a lot of this insight [130:23] unfortunately, historically, has been [130:26] reserved for the elites, however you [130:28] want to define them. The elites [130:30] intellectually or the those only the [130:31] people that work in finance. And I think [130:33] what Real Vision has done is blown those [130:34] doors open. And you're you've been a a [130:36] champion for me in my life um and and an [130:39] educator for me in my life. So that's [130:40] why I was very excited to speak to you [130:41] today. So [130:42] Thank you for what you taught me. I [130:44] appreciate that. And also, for everybody [130:45] watching this, look, I'm genuine in [130:48] trying to help as many people. [130:49] And so we've that the this whole [130:52] everything code thesis to make people [130:53] understand it more. We've made a whole [130:55] special uh area for you guys on Real [130:58] Vision. Go to realvision.com {forward [131:00] slash} diary. [131:02] And there is all fit for you guys [131:04] watching this. [131:07] It's the everything code, the document [131:09] so you can read it, watch the video. You [131:11] get free Real Vision subscription cuz [131:13] it's free to join. [131:16] And honestly, there's so many tools. And [131:17] if you don't understand something, ask [131:18] the AI. The bottom right of the screen [131:20] is a little plus button. You ask the AI, [131:22] the Real Vision bot, it'll explain it to [131:24] you. [131:25] Everything you need is there. It's free. [131:27] There's no reason not to unfuck your own [131:29] future. I'll link that below so [131:31] everyone's got it. That's realvision.com [131:33] {forward slash} diary. There'll be a [131:33] link below in the description, wherever [131:35] you're listening to this. [131:37] Um thank you. [131:38] Thanks for your time. Thank you for your [131:39] time. [131:42] Every single time you eat, you have an [131:44] opportunity to improve your health. [131:45] That's why I love Zoe because it helps [131:47] me to make the smartest food choices for [131:50] my body. As you guys probably know, Zoe [131:52] is a sponsor of my podcast. I'm also an [131:54] investor in the company, which is [131:55] important to say. I invested in the [131:57] company because Zoe combines my health [131:58] data with their world-class science. 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