Ray Dalio Says America and UK Face Long-Term Sovereign Debt Crises

瑞·达利欧称美英两国面临长期主权债务危机 瑞·达利欧认为，不可持续的债务和深刻的内部两极分化正将西方民主体制推向政治动荡与经济重组，美国和英国面临着不可逆转的结构性衰退。 瑞·达利欧警告称，在过度负债、极端财富不平等、政治极化加剧以及不断上升的地缘政治冲突推动下，美国和英国都在经历结构性衰退。借鉴500年的历史周期，他阐释了技术主导地位将如何决定下一个世界秩序，并概述了民主体制崩溃导致专制统治的风险。为了度过这些暗淡时期，达利欧建议保持地理流动性与财务纪律，培养极度开放的心态，善用人工智能，并使工作与个人天性及有意义的人际关系保持契合。 痛苦加反思等于进步：瑞·达利欧的核心哲学强调从苦难中汲取教训，并将决策标准转化为系统化、算法化的规则。 (0:00) 历史在大约80年的大周期中不断重演，由五大主导力量驱动：货币与债务、内部冲突、地缘政治、自然行为以及人类创造力/技术。 (0:00) 与欧洲和英国相比，美国保持着更为优越的创新与冒险文化以及深厚的资本市场，使其成为创业者的首选枢纽。 (5:21) 受沉重的公共债务、非本国居籍（non-dom）税收外流、资本市场萎缩以及缺乏科技创新的影响，英国面临严重的结构性经济衰退。 (6:17) 美国极端的经济分化：前1%的人口推动了绝大部分创新，而底层60%的美国人阅读能力低于六年级水平，造成了深度的社会脆弱性。 (17:25)

Macro investor Ray Dalio contends that the United States and the United Kingdom are entering structural declines driven by late-stage debt burdens, domestic political polarization, and shifting global power dynamics. He argues that surviving this phase of the historical cycle requires understanding macro forces, adopting radical open-mindedness, and maintaining financial and geographic flexibility. Cyclical Empire Dynamics and Geopolitical Realignment (0:00) Dalio outlines five recurring forces driving 80-year historical cycles: money and debt, internal conflict, geopolitics, acts of nature, and technology. Analyzing 500 years of history across the Dutch, British, and American empires, he argues that great powers follow a predictable trajectory from post-crisis ascendancy to peak prosperity, debt accumulation, internal decay, and eventual displacement. Operating roughly 80 years after the conclusion of World War II, Dalio views the loss of American global dominance within the next 50 to 100 years as a natural historical evolution rather than an improbable outlier. Geopolitically, Dalio identifies an emerging confrontation pitting a US-led alliance against an opposing alignment anchored by China, Russia, and India. In his assessment, international primacy will be determined primarily by technological superiority, which dictates both economic dominance and military power. While he views direct military conflict as the greatest existential danger, Dalio expects the dynamic of mutually assured destruction to preserve a cold war balance, allowing opposing systems to compete until one demonstrates clear structural superiority. British Stagnation Versus American Polarization (6:17) While Dalio evaluates both nations as facing severe strain, their institutional challenges diverge significantly. The UK suffers from severe debt obligations, shrinking capital markets, and capital flight, exemplified by the projected departure of roughly 16,000 millionaires in a single year following revisions to non-domiciled tax rules. Because European and British environments remain tied to establishment hierarchies, Dalio advises high-tech entrepreneurs to locate in the United States, pointing to deep capital markets and a meritocratic risk appetite that actively funds unconventional founders. However, Dalio cautions that the United States is undermined by compounding sovereign debt and acute social fragmentation. Wealth generation is intensely concentrated: approximately 1% of the population (about 3 million people) drives premier innovation and secures the bulk of market rewards, while the bottom 60% reads below a sixth-grade level. With political factions clashing through legal and governmental apparatuses and trust in public institutions deteriorating, Dalio warns that extreme socio-economic divides historically risk abandoning democratic debate for authoritarian rule, noting that Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan each abandoned democracy for autocracy during severe economic distress in the 1930s. Artificial Intelligence and Accelerating Inequality (79:14) Dalio characterizes artificial intelligence as an transformative 'alien partner' that provides massive operational leverage to organizations capable of directing it, representing an advanced extension of the algorithmic decision rules he began automating at Bridgewater Associates. However, he forecasts that AI and robotics will exacerbate societal inequality by disproportionately enriching the top 1% to 10% while rendering large portions of white-collar employment—including legal, accounting, and healthcare roles—functionally redundant. Reviewing historical technological shifts from agrarian feudalism through the Industrial Revolution, Dalio emphasizes that cognitive capacity has superseded physical labor as the primary driver of capital accumulation. He argues that basic monetary redistribution will fail to maintain social stability, asserting that income without meaningful, productive purpose leads to dysfunction. Because technological progress does not inherently improve societal happiness or cohesion, Dalio warns that human competitive instincts and political gridlock threaten to amplify domestic conflict rather than foster cooperative outcomes. Decision Principles and Strategic Personal Safeguards (27:24) To navigate macroeconomic turbulence, Dalio relies on a systematized personal doctrine: 'Pain + reflection = progress.' This framework arose after he miscalculated the economic fallout of Mexico's 1982 debt default; expecting a broad market crash, he was wiped out financially when stocks began a multi-year bull market, forcing him to lay off his staff and borrow $4,000 from his father. The failure led Dalio to institutionalize a two-step decision process—first stress-testing all available data through open-minded disagreement with experts, then deciding—while developing Bridgewater's culture of radical truthfulness, transparency, and algorithmic testing. For individuals seeking resilience during late-stage empire transitions, Dalio references the Chinese proverb of the 'smart rabbit with three holes.' Rather than locking capital into illiquid, geographically fixed commitments like residential mortgages, he advises maintaining alternative jurisdictions, preserving liquid financial reserves, and balancing income, spending, and savings. At the individual level, Dalio maintains that beyond basic economic security, well-being depends on meaningful work and deep community relationships rather than endless wealth accumulation. Dalio concludes that while individual actors cannot alter long-term macroeconomic and geopolitical transitions, they can protect their interests through mobility, disciplined decision frameworks, and emotional composure. An unresolved tension remains whether Western democratic institutions can establish a viable political middle capable of reforming debt structures and educational disparities before internal polarization triggers systemic breakdown.

桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）指出，依据债务、内部冲突、地缘对抗、自然演变与技术创新五大驱动力，英美等西方主要国家正步入典型的帝国晚期阶段，面临严重的结构性衰退与体制撕裂风险。他主张个体与组织必须看清不可逆的历史大周期，通过保持极端开放的心态、维护资产与地理机动性，并在人工智能变革浪潮中建立适应现实的生存策略。 历史大周期与西方帝国晚期病症 (15:06) 达利欧提出，评估全球经济与体系演进需依托五大核心力量驱动的历史大周期：货币与债务累积、贫富分化引发的内部冲突、崛起国与守成国的地缘对抗、自然灾害及气候冲击，以及决定长期生产力的技术创新。基于对过去500年荷兰、英国、美国等帝国兴衰的研究，他指出帝国生命周期平均约为80年（大致对应二战结束至今的时长），从繁荣顶峰滑向内部腐朽和外部挑战是自然的历史演变，人们误以为未来只是现状微调的心理往往忽视了这种结构性倒退。 达利欧特别警告，当债务见顶且极端财富差距导致民众对法律、议会与民主制度失去信任时，社会将滑向不可调和的两极对抗。他援引历史先例指出，罗马共和国的终结以及1930年代德国、意大利、西班牙和日本四大民主国家转向专制独裁，均揭示了当既有体系失灵时，公众对强人领导集权统治的渴望会激增。在达利欧看来，美中之间的竞争虽存在核威慑带来的冷战式制衡，但多个维度的系统性压力已使西方体系进入高风险阶段。 英美双重危机与创业环境分化 (6:17) 针对具体国别，达利欧直言英国正面临二战以来的长期结构性恶化。巨额财政债务与赤字挤压了公共支出，而废除“非本土居留（non-dom）”税收地位等政策变动直接加速了高净值人群与资本外流，据估算英国单年流失约16,000名百万富翁。他认为英国缺乏支持尖端科技创新的资本深度，深陷收入萎缩与国防、社会支出膨胀的恶性循环，扭转这一局面亟需具备理性分析能力且能执行严厉生产力改革的强大政治温和派中间力量。 相比之下，达利欧认为美国尽管在创新文化和资本市场上明显优于欧洲与英国（能够为年轻、非传统的优秀创业者提供海量资金试错），但其内部结构性撕裂已达临界点。美国社会的财富高度集中于顶层：约1%的人口（约300万人）驱动创新并获取绝大部分回报，前10%维持着繁荣生态；而底层60%的人口阅读能力低于小学六年级水平，整体生产力基础脆弱。随着左右两翼政治极化加剧，制度公信力大幅受损，美国已陷入严重的社会内耗与政治割裂。 人工智能的技术飞跃与分配陷阱 (79:14) 谈及人工智能与自动化技术，达利欧将其定性为“进入房间的外星伙伴”，认为掌握新一轮技术战争主导权的国家将掌控未来的全球秩序与军事霸权。从历史发展弧线来看，人类先后经历了土地绑定财富的农业时代、知识扩散的思想启蒙时代，以及机器取代人力的工业革命；当前时代已进入“智力价值高于一切”的节点，算力与认知能力正以空前速度汇聚资本。达利欧视AI为放大个人与组织决策效能的强大杠杆工具。 然而，达利欧强调技术进步并不会自发转化为社会普遍福祉。他明确预测，AI与人形机器人的普及将导致白领阶层（包括律师、会计师、甚至医疗从业者）的大量岗位遭到结构性淘汰，进而造成极少数赢家与大量受损者的极端分化，使前1%至10%的富裕阶层受益更甚。达利欧警告，仅靠被动救济或资金再分配无法解决人类丧失价值感所衍生的社会危机，但在高度政治碎裂的现实下，社会各方很难就如何重构劳动力与生产力达成理性共识。 痛苦反思与系统化决策原则 (59:47) 回顾自身职业历程，达利欧分享了其核心原则“痛苦+反思=进步”的起源。在1982年墨西哥主权债务违约危机中，他虽准确预判了债务危机，却误判了股市走向，坚信市场崩盘的押注导致其惨败破产，被迫裁员并向父亲借款4,000美元维生。这次打击促使他建立了“极度开放（Radical Open-Mindedness）”的认知框架：养成害怕犯错的健康敬畏心，坚持“先充分获取多元观点与压力测试，再做决断”的两步法，并运用不相关资产配置来实现防范下行风险的战略分散化。 达利欧随后将这套哲学系统化为桥水基金的运行机制。他强调领导者精力有限，必须像指挥交响乐一样借助德才兼备的人才构建杠杆，并通过“极度求真与极度透明”建立创意择优（Idea Meritocracy）机制，例如严禁背后议论他人、公开决策流程以消除办公室政治。在人才管理上，桥水实行数据化考评与细致画像，达利欧指出通常需要18个月至2年才能全面评估新员工是否契合这种不断接受挑战与坦诚沟通的组织文化，而当企业规模突破67至100人时，必须将其划分为相对独立的小单元以防止官僚主义稀释创新活力。 动荡时代的机动性与人生优先级 (27:24) 面对宏观周期震荡与地缘技术变局，达利欧借用“狡兔三窟”的处世哲学，建议个体在个人生活与资产管理上保持机动性。他主张避免将全部资产捆绑在单一司法管辖区的非流动性固定资产（如房贷）中，而应建立灵活的流动资本与跨地域选择权，审慎平衡收入、消费、储蓄与投资。在身心调节层面，他将超脱冥想（Transcendental Meditation）视作其保持从容专注的关键手段，使思维在面临危机与悲痛时能平复情绪，如忍者慢镜头般审慎决策。 针对人生不同阶段的发展规划，达利欧强调青年期应优先追求学习机会并向高品格的优秀导师靠拢，而非单纯追逐高薪；步入中期后，应将热情与现实生计有机结合，警惕脱离商业规律的盲目热情，但也需认知到超过基本安全阈值后金钱与幸福感几乎无关。他援引社会学研究指出，有意义的工作与有意义的人际纽带（社群归属感）才是决定长久幸福与长寿的核心指标，人生晚期则应将重心转向自由选择、智慧传授与财富的平稳过渡。 达利欧坦言，没有人能够对复杂的宏观未来做出完美预测，技术的单向狂飙与人性中固有的贪婪、权力争夺之间的矛盾构成了当代最严峻的挑战。面对大国周期的衰退惯性与技术撕裂，社会能否超越零和博弈转向合作共赢尚无定论；对普通个体而言，放弃对确定性的幻想、借力先进技术、保持认知谦逊与流动韧性，是在不可预测的周期转变中对抗系统性风险的唯一现实路径。

## Background 该视频由著名播客频道《The Diary Of A CEO》（主持人 Steven Bartlett）于 2025 年 9 月 11 日在 YouTube 平台发布。节目简介指出，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）创始人、亿万富翁投资者瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）在访谈中深度剖析了帝国兴衰规律，警告英美两国的衰落困局，并分享了其核心人生法则、财富真相以及普通人应对宏观动荡的生存之道。 ## TL;DR 在本次深度访谈中，瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）基于驱动大国兴衰的“五大力量”模型，直言对英美两国的未来前景持悲观态度，指出西方深陷巨额债务、政治极化与阶层撕裂的晚期周期风险，而未来胜负将由中美之间的科技战决定。针对个人与企业，他强调了“痛苦 + 反思 = 进步”的核心法则，提倡通过超觉冥想与极度开放的心智来克服自尊盲区，并建议普通人保持资本流动性、追求热爱与工作合一的真正幸福。此外，他还深入探讨了桥水基金的“极度透明”管理哲学、AI 对社会中间阶层的重构冲击，以及人生迈向传承阶段的精神共融追求。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对话沉稳、睿智且极具思想张力，弥漫着一种在洞悉历史沧桑后的超然清醒。达利欧语气波澜不惊却字字千钧，既有一位掌管千亿资产宏观投资者的冷峻理性，又有一位跨越人生重重打击（包括破产惨败与丧子之痛）的长者温情。主持人 Steven 的提问敏锐直接且充满谦卑求知欲，促使两人的思维交锋层层深入，从宏观历史周期的冰冷宿命感，平滑过渡至对个体生命意义、冥想自洽与人际温暖的深刻人文关怀，带给听众一种既警醒震撼又抚平焦虑的奇妙沉浸感。 ## Bulletin - [16:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1011s) 达利欧明确对英美两国的未来前景表示悲观，指出全球正处于跨度约80年的债务膨胀、贫富分化与地缘洗牌大周期晚期，未来50至100年内美国丧失全球霸权属于大概率事件。 - [12:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=779s) “赢得技术战者将赢得一切战争”，达利欧认为当前全球AI与前沿底层技术的顶级较量已演化为中美双雄格局，英国及欧洲由于缺乏包容性创新文化与赋能型资本生态已脱离主牌桌。 - [30:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1820s) 面对周期性动荡，达利欧倡导个人践行“狡兔三窟”策略，高度重视资本流动性与身份/居所的迁徙自由，告诫年轻人切忌将全部财富锚定在25年房贷与重资产不动产中。 - [01:21:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4866s) 人形机器人与尖端AI的汇聚将迅速替代律师、会计师和医生等专业白领，“无用感与金钱并存”将导致严峻的阶层撕裂与认同危机，单纯依靠财富再分配无法治愈社会失调。 ## Key takeaways - [06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=377s) 驱动国家兴衰的“五大力量”模型：货币与债务周期、国内政治与社会冲突、国际地缘秩序重组、自然灾害冲击，以及人类的技术创新发明，这五大力量的交汇共振主导着历史大周期的更迭。 - [12:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=779s) 技术战是现代大国博弈的胜负手：一如二战因核技术突破而收尾，未来霸权更迭将由AI等底层科技主导，而全球仅中美两家具备支撑顶级规模研发的资本体量与人才梯队。 - [16:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1011s) 繁荣表象下的二元撕裂：美国仅有约1%的精英群体（约300万人）充分享受了科技与资本牛市红利，而底层高达60%的成年人阅读能力低于六年级水平，生产力断层构成了深层体制隐患。 - [25:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1514s) 民主政体向威权主义滑落的历史规律：当社会极端极化、制度无法调和矛盾且公众丧失信任时，群众倾向于呼唤铁腕强人打破僵局，正如1930年代多国民主机制蜕化为独裁威权统治。 - [30:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1820s) 个人防范宏观风险的核心是“资产流动性”：在大动荡时期，深绑在固定不动产上的债务会削弱应变能力，维持储蓄、全球迁徙自由与高流动性资本才能掌握主动权。 - [33:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2037s) 财富边际效应递减与幸福感来源：跨越基本生存底线后金钱与福祉几乎无关；跨社会研究证实，幸福最核心的驱动力是社群归属感以及“有意义的工作与有意义的人际关系”。 - [35:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2130s) 人生周期的分季策略：职业早期应以海量学习和吸收经验为先，主动追随兼具优秀品格与卓越能力的顶尖导师，而非单纯追求高薪；晚期则应转向智慧与财富的传承。 - [45:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2704s) “痛苦 + 反思 = 进步”公式：面对挫折时首先借由冥想冷静抽离，看清现实运转规律，将教训提炼成“如果发生X，则执行Y”的原则，并转化为机器化的决策模式识别系统。 - [48:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2928s) 超觉冥想（TM）对高阶决策的赋能：通过重复咒语进入超越显意识与潜意识的精神状态，宛如“慢动作化解混乱的忍者”，能在高压决策环境下保持绝对的宁静与理性中心感。 - [58:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3487s) 一阶后果与二阶后果的反向法则：即时舒适享受（一阶）往往带来长期机能退化（二阶），而艰辛奋斗的不适（一阶）才能锤炼出掌控力与抗脆弱能力（二阶）。 - [01:01:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3702s) 1982年做空破产带来的觉醒：惨烈亏损迫使达利欧彻底克服认知自负，确立了“主动寻找最聪明的人来压力测试自身观点”的极度开放心态，并创立了全天候不相关多元分散投资体系。 - [01:08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4092s) 桥水基金的“极度透明”组织机制：严禁背后议论他人（违背三次开除），通过数据化岗位匹配进行长达18个月的文化考核，并采取“城市中的村落”（拆分为75-100人紧密单元）化解大企业官僚病。 - [01:21:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4866s) 认知替代时代人类价值重塑危机：工业革命替代了人类肌肉体力，而AI与具身智能正全面替代高阶智力脑力，社会若无法重构生产力参与感，两极分化与阶层撕裂将面临失控。 - [01:29:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=5341s) 跨学科通识胜于狭隘专业主义：理解现实需打破单一学科壁垒，将演化生物学（道金斯）、人类文明大周期史（杜兰特《历史的教训》）与人性演变神话学（坎贝尔《千面英雄》）融汇贯通。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=0s) 痛苦加反思等于进步：预测未来的五大核心力量 节目开篇，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）直指其人生与投资中最核心的底层法则：“痛苦加反思等于进步”（"Pain plus reflection equals progress"）。正是依循这一原则，他掌管的资产规模达到了 1500 亿美元。达利欧指出，要想准确预测未来，就必须理解那些在自己有生之年从未发生过、却在整个人类漫长历史上反复上演的规律。 当主持人史蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）单刀直入地问及他对英国的未来是否感到乐观时，达利欧干脆利落地回答：“不乐观。”对于美国的未来，他的答案同样是冷酷的“不乐观”。达利欧解释称，全球经济与地缘政治的起伏是由“五大力量”共同交织驱动的，这五大力量构成了一个跨度约为 80 年的历史大周期： 1. **货币与债务力量**：债务扩张催生出贫富差距与机遇鸿沟； 2. **国内政治与社会冲突力量**：民众对现有体制失去信任，催生左右两翼势力的激烈对抗，而这类矛盾绝非“对富人加税”这类简单口号所能解决； 3. **地缘政治力量**：国际间的霸权竞争与外部冲突； 4. **自然力量**：干旱、洪水以及大流行病等自然灾害，历史上其夺走的生命往往超过战争； 5. **人类的创造力与新技术**：决定谁能在科技战中胜出，进而确立未来的世界新秩序。 面对如此黯淡的宏观走势，达利欧却认为普通人不必陷入单纯的恐慌，关键在于“个体如何去应对”。这要求每个人强化自身的财务韧性、保持思维灵活性与极度开放的心态，并学会如何“压榨每一分钟的产出”，而非仅仅是盲目地延长工作时间。 随后，主持人插播了一段走心的观众互动，呼吁常看节目的听众顺手检查是否已点击关注频道，并感谢大家在这段探索未来的旅程中与节目一路同行。 --- ### [02:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=136s) 迷茫时代的高阶指引：理解生命周期与自我天性 史蒂芬为听众画像：当前正在收听节目的，主要是年龄在 18 至 50 岁之间、渴望改善自身处境、怀抱创业梦想或正在评估时间与资金该投向何处的人群。他们眼前的世界变化飞快、充满不确定性且令人心生畏惧。史蒂芬向达利欧抛出一个宏观层面的高阶问题：面对这种未知的恐惧，一个人若想守护好自己的家庭、未来和财务，当下最应该思考的首要事项是什么？ 达利欧直言这并不是一道难题，其核心答案在于“理解生命周期（Life Cycle）的运作机制”： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 个人生命成长弧线与演进机制 accDescr: 展示从认知天性到探索路径、经历波折再到演进的生命周期循环 subgraph SelfDiscovery ["自我认知阶段"] A["认识自我天性\n（天生偏好与思考方式）"] --> B["找准契合天性的路径\n（创业冒险 vs. 稳定就业）"] end subgraph JourneyArc ["生命探险与演进"] B --> C["踏上人生旅程并经历起伏"] C --> D["遭遇现实挫折与痛苦"] D --> E["反思并提炼处事原则"] E --> F["自我进化并重塑认知"] F -.-> C end ``` 达利欧强调，每个人都处于一条起伏跌宕的生命弧线（The Arc of the Life Cycle）之中，本质上这是一场探险旅程。每个人天生带有独特的“本性”（Nature），由先天禀赋与后天环境共同塑造。不同的人有不同的倾向：有人天然具备企业家冒险精神，渴望在充满挑战的未知中开拓；而另一些人的天性则更追求一份明确、稳定的工作所带来的安全感。达利欧告诫年轻人，最关键的是认清自己的天性，确立指导行动的“原则”，并在探险过程中勇敢迎接起伏挫折，从中反思并实现心智的自我演进。 --- ### [05:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=321s) 创业者的地理抉择：为什么科技创业必须选美国而非英国 针对史蒂芬提出具体的战术性问题——“如果我是一名想要打造科技公司的创业者，我应该留在英国还是搬去美国？”达利欧毫不犹豫地建议选择美国。 达利欧深入对比了美英两国的文化底色与制度土壤： * **英国与欧洲的“建制派文化”（Establishment Culture）**：传统观念根深蒂固，阶层与社会资历壁垒森严，资本和机制对反传统的创新者缺乏足够的包容度。 * **美国的“创业与创新文化”**：极具包容性与冒险精神。达利欧打趣地形容：“在美国，你哪怕只有 25 岁、挑染了一缕蓝头发，但只要你有真本事能把事情搞定，你就能拿到丰厚的资源并成为一名企业家。” 达利欧指出，正是这种支持创新的独特文化环境，导致美欧两地经济在创造力上拉开了明显差距。如果目标是成为一名科技创业者，美国无疑是全球最能提供滋养土壤的大环境。 --- ### [06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=377s) 英国的真实困境与驱动历史巨变的“五大力量”模型 谈及英国当前的真实状况，达利欧给出了极为严峻的诊断。他指出英国正面临严重的“财务问题”与“政府债务危机”：政府想做的事和能做的事之间存在巨大资金缺口，财政入不敷出。直接恶果之一便是税收政策引发的“非英国本土居籍（Non-Dom）”高净值人群资金大逃亡。从二战结束以来，英国就处于漫长的衰退周期中，资本市场规模萎缩，无论是集资能力还是经济活力都远逊于美国。 达利欧进一步将英国的问题放入跨度约 80 年（误差在 50 年左右）的历史巨变周期中进行拆解，重点阐述了前三股相互交织的力量： | 核心力量维度 | 历史运作机制与现实映射 | |:--- |:--- | | **1. 货币与债务力量**<br>(Money & Debt Cycle) | 债务本质上是透支未来的“购买力”。借贷能刺激短期支出，但一旦债务增速长期超过收入增速，债务负担就会严重挤压正常开支，资产持有者开始抛售债务，债务危机不可避免地爆发。英国目前深陷该泥潭。 | | **2. 国内政治与社会力量**<br>(Internal Conflict) | 债务与资产分配不均催生庞大的财富与机会鸿沟。当民众普遍感到“体制不再为自己服务”且丧失信任感时，左右两派的斗争便从政治攻防演变为深层的阶层对抗与内部冲突。 | | **3. 地缘政治力量**<br>(Geopolitical Order) | 周期往往从一场大战走向另一场大战。现存的世界秩序始于 1944 至 1945 年二战结束，战胜国负责划定边界并制定规则。当旧秩序走过繁荣陷入内部衰落，而新兴崛起大国开始发起挑战时，国际冲突与全面洗牌便随之发生。 | 达利欧总结道，人类历史上的货币秩序、国内政治秩序以及国际地缘秩序，最终都会在周期末尾走向崩溃。自然灾害（干旱、洪涝、疫情）在此过程中经常推波助澜，而人类的新技术创新则在不断打破原有的力量均势。当前，英国、美国乃至全球大部分国家，都正处于这五大力量激烈冲撞与重新洗牌的危险交汇点上。 ### [10:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=626s) 审视大国兴衰的分析框架与英国的困境 达利欧将当前动荡的全球局势拆解为五个核心驱动力：债务与货币问题、内部冲突、地缘政治大国博弈、气候变化以及人类的技术发明与创新。在谈到大国冲突对欧洲及英国的深远影响时，他特别指出，俄乌冲突不仅牵涉地缘安全，归根结底更是一场关于“钱”的考验——用于军费开支与国防建设的巨额资金究竟从何而来？当主持人史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）问及既然所有国家都在经受这些冲击，是否意味着大家会平均承受苦难时，达利欧断然予以否定。他解释道，每个国家的资产负债表与抗风险能力千差万别：有些国家深陷债务泥潭，而有些国家坐拥财政盈余；有些国家的国债被全球投资者争相持有，而另一些国家则缺乏信誉支撑；更不用说大国拥有更雄厚的资源和体量，而有些国家则直接身处战争前线。 当被直接问及目前是否对英国的未来感到乐观时，达利欧毫不犹豫地连说了两个“不”。他悲观的原因非常明确：英国不仅背负着沉重的债务、面临激烈的国内社会冲突，还饱受外部地缘政治波及。更致命的是，英国缺乏像美国那样能够大规模催生并支持突破性创新的“文化与资本市场”。在达利欧看来，资本市场的本质远不止是简单的“投资交易”，而是“赋能人才”。 社会的繁荣依托于发现并资助顶尖人才——就像英伟达（NVIDIA）等伟大科技企业的崛起一样，并非凭空降临，而是具备天赋的企业家获得了相信他们并愿意下注的资本支持。这种将巨额资本与创新文化深度绑定的生态，正是英国目前无法匹敌的。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 达利欧的大国兴衰五大核心驱动力框架 accDescr: 展示影响国家命运的五大驱动力及其相互关联 subgraph Forces["驱动国家周期的五大力量"] F1["债务、货币与经济周期"] F2["内部冲突与贫富政治极化"] F3["大国地缘博弈与外部战争"] F4["自然与气候变化冲击"] F5["技术创新与人类发明力"] end Forces --> Result["决定国家相对实力与兴衰轨迹"] ``` ### [12:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=779s) 科技战与霸权更迭：赢下技术战者赢天下 转向对美国未来的判断时，达利欧坦言从大局来看他同样不乐观。美国正在五大力量的每一个维度上遭遇严重红线：债务与经济失衡日益严峻；贫富差距与价值观裂痕导致极左与极右势力陷入死斗，大众开始丧失对体制公正性的信任，连民主规则本身都摇摇欲坠。在地缘政治舞台上，美国作为西方阵营的领袖，正与中国及其盟友展开白热化对抗。达利欧提到新闻画面中习近平、普京以及莫迪等领导人的密集互动，直言全球阵营的边界已经划定得无比清晰，而身处旋涡边缘的历史智慧永远是“远离战争”。 在这场对抗中，技术竞争占据着绝对制高点。达利欧强调，全球科技大比拼的牌桌上实质上只有美国和中国两个玩家，其他国家既没有庞大的资金支持，也缺乏同等体量的创新与人才梯队。他给出了一个斩钉截铁的论断：“赢得技术战的一方，将赢得所有战争。”技术优势直接等同于经济战与地缘政治战的终极胜利。达利欧回顾历史指出，这种规律在过去五百年中屡试不爽——正如核武器的诞生彻底终结了第二次世界大战一样，技术颠覆往往决定历史走向。作为一名需要真金白银押注未来的全球宏观投资者，他深入研究了荷兰帝国、大英帝国等过去半个千年中各大帝国的起承转合，确认周期性更替是不可抗拒的客观规律。 - **五百年周期法则**：大国兴衰在历史上反复重演，从荷兰帝国、大英帝国到美国概莫能外。 - **决定性技术力量**：二战终结于核技术突破，未来大国胜负同样将由人工智能与前沿科技主导。 - **双雄格局**：唯有中美两家具备在顶级规模上推进底层科技创新的资本实力与人才生态。 ### [16:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1011s) 割裂的美国：1%的繁荣与60%的阅读困境 史蒂文提出，当代人生活在强盛的美国，看到四处欣欣向荣、人工智能突飞猛进、股市高歌猛进，本能地无法想象帝国竟会陨落。达利欧对此感叹道，人们总是习惯性地假设“未来只是当下的微调版本”，这种认知盲区就像看着一个孩子每天成长，你看到的是日常的琐碎，却往往忽略了他整个不可避免的生命弧线（life arc）。当被问及未来50到100年内美国是否有可能失去全球霸主地位时，达利欧直言“这绝不仅是可能，而是概率极大（more than conceivable）”。帝国的进化路径和病理特征一贯如此，关键在于整个体制与民众是否能在不互相毁灭的前提下掌控并修复这些危机。 面对美国拥有众多创新企业的反驳，达利欧提醒绝不能对美国社会和金融市场做笼统的概括。繁荣背后是极端的撕裂：在3.3亿美国人口中，真正享受这场科技与资本盛宴的只有约1%的群体（大约300万人），再加上环绕其周的10%上层精英，他们在特定社区里过得无比惬意。但硬币的另一面触目惊心——全美有高达60%的成年人阅读能力低于六年级水平。达利欧指出，一个健康成功的社会必须建立在“广泛的生产力与广泛的繁荣”之上。当超过半数的人口在基本技能和生产力上严重掉队时，社会底层与精英层之间已经分裂成了两个完全不同的世界，内部分裂与对抗不可避免。 - **霸权更迭概率**：未来50至100年内美国丢掉世界第一强国宝座是“极其可能且符合历史周期”的。 - **极端二元社会**：仅约300万人（占人口1%）主导并享受绝大部分科技与资本红利。 - **严峻的基本盘短板**：全美底层60%的人口阅读能力未达六年级水平，无法支撑全民生产力的提升。 ### [19:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1191s) 政治极化与体制信任危机 针对社会的撕裂，史蒂文探讨了政治层面的矛盾：作为亿万富翁阶层的唐纳德·特朗普，为何能将自己塑造成底层弱势群体的代言人？他究竟是解决不平等的救星，还是撕裂的产物？达利欧分析称，特朗普确实敏锐地捕捉到了美国巨额债务、社会混乱与体制失灵的问题。打开美国的政治版图，红蓝对立一目了然，特朗普牢牢团结了“红州”的大批基本盘。作为一名倾向于强人集权式领导的政客，他在支持者眼中代表着敢于打破僵局的力量。 然而，这种代表性本身充满内在悖论。对于依赖食品券（SNAP）及各类救济项目的底层贫民而言，当相关社会福利被削减时，他们并不会觉得自己真正被代表。达利欧指出，目前美国两极分化已经恶化到了“信徒化”的狂热地步——红蓝双方各自拥有一批全情投入、寸步不让的狂热死忠（devotees）。在像纽约市市长选举这样的地方政治中，选民站队与两极撕裂的微观现实同样暴露无遗。当双方都试图利用体制作为武器攻击对方，且越来越不相信规则本身能带来公正时，整个民主治理机制能否继续正常运转，已经成了悬在美国头顶最大的问号。 ### [21:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1314s) 英国的困境与拯救方案：强大的“政治中间派” 针对英国面临的困局——尤其是媒体广泛报道的“百万富翁大逃离”（仅当年预计英国就将流失约 1.6 万名百万富翁，外流规模超过中国、美国、阿联酋等国），主持人询问雷·达利欧：如果由他执掌英国，他会从哪里下手去挽救这种局面？达利欧承认这是一个极其艰难的任务。回归底层逻辑，英国的核心顽疾在于债务过重、赤字高企，以及教育和机遇水平的严重分化。 达利欧指出，扭转这一局面的核心在于建立一个“强有力的中间派”（strong middle），即一个理性、具备深度分析能力且手腕强硬的政治中间力量。唯有这样的力量，才能在民众不情愿的情况下推动提升生产力所必需的痛苦变革。他强调，回顾美国崛起的历史可以发现，人总是向往更好的去处并逃离恶劣的环境，这是由激励机制决定的。因此，国家必须通过扶持局部增长点向外扩散，并全力追求教育均等与机会平等来提升自身吸引力。 听到达利欧语调低沉、仿佛对英国已有些许放弃，主持人指出了这一点。达利欧解释称，自己并非悲观，而是一个务实、理性的投资人：“我的本能就是实事求是，并就事态的未来发展进行下注。”在他看来，英国目前的状况极不健康，而资金和人才自然会流向那些文明礼貌、富有创造力、且内部不处于内耗交战状态的地方。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 英国困境与破局逻辑 accDescr: 展示英国当前面临的债务与分化问题，以及达利欧提出的强力政治中间派解决方案。 subgraph Problem["当前核心顽疾"] A["巨额债务与财政赤字"] B["教育与机遇水平分化"] C["富人与资本外流加速"] end subgraph Solution["破解路径"] D["强有力的政治中间派"] E["推行强硬改革以提升生产力"] F["促进教育均等与机遇公平"] end A & B & C --> D D --> E & F ``` --- ### [25:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1514s) 历史重演与体制破裂：民主向威权的滑落风险 当被问及“历史接下来会发生什么”时，达利欧直言，体制往往会因为公众失去信任而走向崩溃，随后爆发对控制权的激烈争夺和政治革命。当两派观点针锋相对、水火不容时，无论是司法系统还是议会体制，都无法给出令双方满意的裁决。这种剧本在古罗马时期、在凯撒与元老院的博弈中就已经反复上演。 达利欧特别提醒道，在 20 世纪 30 年代，四个主要民主政体——意大利、德国、西班牙和日本——最终都走向了独裁威权主义（autocracy）。威权主义本质上是由极少数高层进行自上而下的集权指挥，彻底打破了各方代表在既定规则下协商决策的民主机制。 面对当前的极端撕裂，美英等国同样面临这种压力： - 混乱加剧时，社会对“能铁腕收拾烂摊子的强人领袖”的呼声会显著上升。 - 政治两极化（红方与蓝方、左右两派）的全面正面对撞将变得难以避免。 - 美国的风险不仅来自沉重的债务，更来自于内部冲突、地缘政治重组、核威胁风险、气候变化以及关键技术的争夺战。 --- ### [27:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1671s) 中美大国博弈与 80 年大周期的历史规律 针对普京与中国领导人并肩同行的国际格局，主持人提问：如果中国成为全球主导力量，权力的交接能否平稳过渡？达利欧认为，在相当长的时间内，没有任何一方能够确立绝对的统治地位。决出胜负最快的方式是战争，但这极其危险；他更倾向于认为未来的演变会类似美苏冷战——在“核毁灭（MAD，相互保证毁灭）”的阴影震慑下，双方避免爆发全面热战，最终由各自体制的韧性与优劣来决定胜负。 达利欧重申了他在《变化中的世界秩序》中阐述的宏观长周期理论。这种大周期往往约为 80 年，恰好相当于一个人的完整生命周期（目前距离二战结束正好约 80 年）： - 周期并不是绝对注定的死期；正如一个注重健康、饮食规律、坚持锻炼的人能活得更长一样，国家也能通过自身调适延长寿命。 - 国家的盛衰就像身体体检，可以通过种种“体征”（symptoms）清晰地判断出其所处的周期阶段。当前美国的各种体制体征，都清晰表明其正处于周期的晚期风险阶段。 --- ### [30:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1820s) 狡兔三窟与资本流动：普通人应对大动荡的生存法则 面对周期性动荡，达利欧引用了一句中国成语——“狡兔三窟”（A smart rabbit has three holes），以此告诫个人与家庭如何做好防御： 1. **地理上的迁徙自由**：历史上最重要的一项能力，就是能够成功完成身份转换或移民，远离正在衰败、糟糕的地方，搬迁到更好、更安全的地区。 2. **构建财务韧性**：个人的财务实力取决于“赚取、消费与储蓄”这三者的平衡，进而取决于如何投资这些结余。 3. **知识与认知储备**：清楚认知宏观周期的运转规律，从而及早做出战略调整。 主持人顺势追问：在充满变数的时代，年轻人是否应该放弃传统的“买房还贷 25 年”观念？达利欧给予了肯定回答。他强调，**资本的流动性（mobility of capital）至关重要**。如果一个人把绝大部分核心资产全部砸在一套房子里、将自己彻底锚死在特定地点，就会严重削弱自身的灵活性。在历史动荡期，被固定资产深度绑架往往会丧失主动权。 --- ### [32:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1959s) 财富与事业的终极准则：把热爱做成事业 当被问及作为父亲会给子女传授怎样的赚钱和技能建议时，达利欧表示，具体的职业路径属于底层细节，更关键的是掌握上位原则（higher level principle）： > “让你的工作与你的热情融为一体，但千万别把钱的部分给抛在脑后。” > （"Make your work and your passion the same thing and don't forget about the money part."） 达利欧解释说，当你真正热爱自己的事业时，你不仅能拥有充实而愉悦的生活，而且更有可能把工作做到极致，从而在职场中脱颖而出获得晋升。但他同时也现实地提醒，不同职业具有完全不同的财务变现属性；如果一个人选择去当诗人这类职业，就必须提前认清并承受其背后的财务现实。 ### [33:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2037s) 财富迷思与真正带来幸福的事物 Ray Dalio 告诫人们，在思考未来的财务规划时，不要掉入“赚大钱等同于巨大成功”的典型陷阱。他指出，许多人深信巨额财富就意味着人生的成功，但事实并非如此。决定一个人生活是否充实的核心，在于你的工作与你的热情是否融为一体。达利欧认为，真正赋予人类幸福感的源泉其实只有两样：“有意义的工作和有意义的人际关系”（"meaningful work and meaningful relationships"）。如果你全身心投入到热爱的事业中，并通过工作以及生活与他人建立起深厚联结，你极大概率会拥有精彩充实的一生。 跨社会的科学研究反复证明，一旦人们的基本物质需求得到满足，财富的增加与幸福感或身心健康之间几乎不存在相关性。达利欧强调，在所有跨社会关于幸福感与福祉的研究中，与幸福相关度最高的指标其实是“社群归属感”（community）。你身边是否有彼此支持的社群、是否生活在紧密的群体之中，直接决定了寿命的长短以及生活的愉悦程度。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 财富与人生幸福感模型 accDescr: 展现财富如何仅在基础阶段保障生存，而真正的长期幸福来自于工作、人际关系与社群归属。 subgraph WealthTrap ["物质层面：边际效应递减"] W1["累积财富 / 金钱"] --> W2{"超过基本生活线？"} W2 -- 否 --> W3["改善物质困境，提升幸福感"] W2 -- 是 --> W4["与幸福感、心理福祉失去相关性"] end subgraph TrueWellbeing ["真正驱动幸福的核心要素"] direction TB E1["有意义的工作<br/>(工作与热情合一)"] E2["有意义的人际关系<br/>(深度联结)"] E3["社群归属感 Community<br/>(跨社会研究相关度最高、促进长寿)"] E1 --- E2 --- E3 end W4 -.->|追求真正的人生价值| TrueWellbeing ``` --- ### [35:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2130s) 人生不同周期的博弈策略：早期学习与晚期传承 主持人 Steven Bartlett 结合达利欧的著作《原则：你的导引旅程》（*Principles: Your Guided Journey*）提问：在创造财富与规划人生时，人们是否应该在不同的人生阶段采取截然不同的策略？比如年轻时究竟该追求最高薪水的工作，还是该争取留在像达利欧这样的导师身边？ 达利欧毫不犹豫地给出肯定答复：年轻时绝不应该追逐薪水最高的工作，而应该尽可能靠近那些“最优秀的人”。这里的“最优秀”包含两层不可或缺的特质：优秀的品格（character）与过硬的能力（capabilities）。在人生早期，最关键的任务不是赚钱，而是海量的“学习与体验”（learning and experiencing），在这个阶段去探索未来的方向；而到了人生的暮年或终局阶段，人们已经不再需要为了谋生而奔波劳碌，获得了充分的自由，此时的重心将转向“传承”（transitioning）——如何将自己的健康理念、财富积累与认知智慧平稳地传递下去。 - **人生早期策略**：以学习为第一要务，选择能提供最好指导的导师与团队，远离只给高薪但学不到东西的岗位。 - **优秀人才标准**：兼具良好品格与卓越才能。 - **人生晚期策略**：从前线的竞争与产出中解脱出来，专注于知识、财富及福祉的代际传承。 --- ### [37:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2262s) 首次买股的意外甜头与打通历史周期的顿悟 谈及自己早年做出的关键战略决定，达利欧回忆起自己天生就反感传统学校教育：“我讨厌学校，讨厌那种死记硬背再原样吐出来的模式。”老师让他背诵诸如“征服者威廉在1066年做了什么”，这让他倍感枯燥。然而从12岁起，他就开始通过送报纸、割草、在高尔夫球场当球童来打零工攒钱。 当时身边所有人都在热议股市，12岁的达利欧拿着当球童赚来的钱一头扎了进去。由于毫无经验，他选股的唯一逻辑极其荒谬：挑选了一家他唯一听说过的、股价低于每股5美元的股票。他当时天真地以为“股价便宜就能买更多股，涨了就能赚更多钱”。结果这家濒临破产的公司碰巧被另一家企业溢价收购，股价瞬间翻了三倍。这笔意外之财让他彻底迷上了金融市场，这一着迷便是大半辈子。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 达利欧早期历史周期洞察的形成 accDescr: 展示1971年尼克松关闭黄金窗口如何引导达利欧回溯1933年罗斯福政策，确立研究历史的原则。 subgraph Event1971 ["1971年8月15日 尼克松冲击"] A1["尼克松宣布美元脱钩黄金"] --> A2["达利欧预期股市暴跌"] A2 --> A3["纽约证交所股市不跌反暴涨"] end subgraph HistoryResearch ["历史镜鉴"] A3 --> B1["研究未经历过的历史周期"] B1 --> B2["发现1933年罗斯福同样废除金本位并印钞"] B2 --> B3["结论：大量印钞会导致货币贬值与资产名义价格暴涨"] end subgraph PrincipleBorn ["核心原则形成"] B3 --> C1["'未在生前发生过的事，不代表不会发生'"] C1 --> C2["奠定宏观债务与经济周期分析基石"] end ``` 勉强考入波斯特长岛大学（C.W. Post College）后，达利欧又考入哈佛商学院，这极大开阔了他的视野。1971年夏天，刚从大学毕业、即将入读哈佛商学院的达利欧在纽约证券交易所大厅做文员。1971年8月15日，尼克松总统发表电视讲话，宣布关闭黄金窗口，美元无法再自由兑换黄金。当时的法定纸币实质上是黄金的提货券，达利欧本以为第二天股市会彻底崩盘，结果股市反而迎来暴涨。困惑不已的他潜心钻研经济史，惊奇地发现1933年3月富兰克林·罗斯福在电台宣布停止兑付黄金并开闸印钞时，市场也上演了完全相同的暴涨剧情。这次顿悟让他树立了受用终身的认知：**自己有生之年从未经历过的事情，绝不意味着在历史上没有发生过；理解大历史的周期运行规律至关重要。** --- ### [41:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2482s) 创立桥水与“痛苦 + 反思 = 进步”法则 1973年从哈佛毕业后，伴随着肆虐的印钞浪潮与第一次石油危机爆发，达利欧凭借在商品领域的积累，受邀担任华尔街一家经纪公司的商品主管。经历市场的剧烈动荡与公司破产后，他跳槽到另一家机构，但生性桀骜不驯、不喜欢按部就班当规矩雇员的他在1975年被解雇。 然而，欣赏他投资能力的客户们依然愿意付费获取他的宏观咨询意见。达利欧在继续交易的同时，于1975年正式创立了桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）。在经历50年的跌宕起伏后，桥水最终发展成为管理约1,500亿美元资产、拥有1,500名员工的全球最大对冲基金，达利欧也在近期完成了领导权的交接。 达利欧坦言，巨额财富并不是他当年的初衷，他仅仅是深爱这场市场博弈，并追求有意义的工作与伙伴关系，“如果你擅长这个游戏，金钱只是顺带的结果”。他将这一路上的挫折与腾飞归结为一个核心原则： > **“痛苦 + 反思 = 进步”（"Pain plus reflection equals progress."）** 每一次切身的痛苦，都是现实世界在向你发送信号：停下来，看清现实究竟是如何运作的，反思自己的认知盲区，并提炼成下一次应对现实的清晰原则。如今步入人生传承期的他，正是希望将这些经过痛苦检验的原则通过出书与对话传播给下一代。 --- ### [43:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2635s) 赞助商插播与个人财富的引子 节目中场插播了赞助商 LinkedIn 的广告，主持人分享了自己早期在 B2B 营销中片面追求曝光量而非质量的教训，说明精准触达决策层对预算回报的重要性。广告结束后，主持人 Steven 回到对话，准备就金钱与个人财富展开更深入的探讨。他坦言多数人羞于公开谈论财富，但达利欧不仅是一位高产的慈善家，据网络公开数据显示其个人身家也极其庞大，以此引出下一阶段达利欧对金钱本质与财富管理的看法。 ### [45:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2704s) 面对痛苦与沉淀原则：痛楚 + 反思 = 进步 主持人提到了桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）数十亿美元的庞大规模，以及瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）长达50年的投资人生涯。他指出，达利欧提出过一个极其核心的公式——“痛楚 + 反思 = 进步”（Pain + Reflection = Progress）。面对生活各维度的种种打击与痛苦，达利欧分享了他应对痛苦的首要原则：第一步永远是先让自己冷静下来并回归中心（get centered）。超觉冥想在这方面赋予了他巨大的力量，帮助他学会在适当时机进行深刻反思，看清“现实到底是如何运作的”，做一个极致的超现实主义者（hyperrealist）。 达利欧解释，每当遭遇困境、思考“我现在该做什么”时，无论是痛苦还是常态，他都会停下来反思：如果这类事情再次发生，我该如何应对？他将这些总结成明确的行动原则——“如果发生 A，就采取行动 B”。在投资领域，他更进一步将这些决策规则系统化、计算机化。他在大语言模型（LLM）问世很久之前，就开发了一套由计算机驱动的规则型人工智能决策系统。这就好比计算机在自动下一盘国际象棋，而达利欧大脑里的棋局与其完全同步下子。这种将反思转化成规则的做法，彻底改变了他的认知模式。 如果没有这种原则性思维，扑面而来的生活与市场就像一场毫无头绪的“暴风雪”；而一旦拥有了原则，面对任何突发情况，他一眼就能认出“这又是某种已知的事件模式（another one of those）”。他用生物学分类作比喻：这就好比突然冒出来一只动物，你识别出它是“鸭子”，你便知道对付鸭子的原则；若认出它是“狮子”，你就会按照对付狮子的策略行动，从而通过模式识别让决策变得极其精准而清晰。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 痛楚转化为原则决策系统的流程 accDescr: 展现从遇到痛苦、冥想冷静、提炼模式到计算机化自动化决策的演变过程。 subgraph Emotion["心理调适与冷静"] A["遭遇痛苦 / 现实打击"] --> B["冷静沉淀 / 冥想回归中心"] end subgraph Reflection["模式识别与提炼"] B --> C["深入反思：现实如何运作"] C --> D["提炼原则：如果发生X，就执行Y"] D --> E["模式归类：认出'这又是那一类事'"] end subgraph Automation["系统化与决策"] E --> F["编码为决策系统 / 算法"] F --> G["历史回测与机器自动决策"] end ``` --- ### [48:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2928s) 成为原则性思考者：显意识、潜意识与超觉冥想 针对“如何成为一个原则性思考者”的疑问，达利欧指出关键在于多写下自己的想法，去探究人生这部机器究竟如何运转。他自己在日常做决策时，甚至会经常把反思直接口述记录在 iPhone 里：不仅要记录“做了什么决定”，更要反思“依据了什么标准做出该决定”。当主持人补充提到个人情绪、创伤、焦虑和不安全感的影响时，达利欧强调，必须清晰反思这些情绪是“有益的还是有害的”，并理解大脑的二元构造：一边是理性的、有逻辑的显意识（conscious mind），另一边则是深层潜藏、真正驱动行为的潜意识（subconscious mind）。 冥想能够天然地促进显意识与潜意识的协同统一。达利欧详细拆解了他坚持练习的“超觉冥想”（Transcendental Meditation）的运行机理： - **唱诵与专注**：静静坐下，在脑海中不断重复一个无实际意义的音节（即咒语/Mantra），最典型的例子如呼吸之间的“Om”。 - **摆脱杂念**：随着咒语占据大脑，其他思绪便无法侵入；即便大脑在咒语与念头之间出现波动摇摆，只需温和地重新拉回到咒语上。 - **超越境界（Transcending）**：练习深入后，咒语声音自身也会随之消失，人便跨入深层的潜意识领域。这既非睡着时的无意识状态（unconscious），也不是日常紧绷的清醒显意识（conscious），而是一种完全放松、但感知清晰的全新精神境界。 达利欧形容这种境界就像“忍者电影里的打斗场面”——外在世界再怎么混乱嘈杂，在慢动作镜头下，忍者都能以一种极度镇静、从容的节奏去化解一切迎面而来的招数。这种内心状态让潜意识与显意识相互契合，消解焦躁，对提升决策质量起到了决定性的作用。 --- ### [53:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3180s) 宁静祷文与至亲离世：生命弧度中的痛苦升华 谈及超觉冥想对自己成功的助益，达利欧坦言其重要性“无可估量”。他借用了著名的《宁静祷文》（Serenity Prayer）来概括这种生活态度：“神啊，请赐予我平静，去接受我无法改变的事；赐予我勇气，去改变我能改变的事；并赐予我智慧，去分辨两者的区别。”如果能在反思中保持这种高质量的宁静，人便能扛过世间任何风浪。 达利欧动情地提及了自己经历过的最沉痛绝望的打击——痛失爱子。他坦陈，那是一种“宁愿自己死去、宁愿失去拥有的一切也不愿承受的惨剧”，不仅自身痛苦万分，整个家族也深陷于悲伤、恐惧与创伤之中。然而，正是凭借长期冥想与反思所建立的力量，他才得以支撑着熬过这一生最严酷的考验。 当被问及这场家庭悲剧如何重塑了他的原则与对人生、成功的认知时，达利欧表示，自己学会了“跳脱出来，从更高层次俯瞰生命的全貌”。他举起书中的图表解释，人生与万物的演进都是一条起伏波折的弧线（life arc）：你取得进展，接着遭遇惨痛挫折；只要你深刻反思、理解现实的运作法则并做出正确应对，你就能穿越低谷、继续前行。这就是生命本来的面目，唯有学会与这种客观规律共处，才能活出你可能拥有的“最佳人生”。 --- ### [55:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3348s) 宗教、精神性与因果法则 在被问及是否是宗教信徒时，达利欧明确表示：“我没有宗教信仰，但我是一个有精神追求的人（spiritual）。”他回顾了自己与十四世达赖喇嘛的交流，并深表赞同：传统宗教往往是由“迷信”与“精神性”混合而成的，其中包含常人无法探知的神秘成分，但其核心都包含着指导人与人如何相处的伦理以及因果法则（karma）。 达利欧指出，世界各大宗教的底层逻辑都有相通的黄金法则——“己所不欲，勿施于人”（do unto others as you would have them do unto you）以及善恶终有报（what goes around comes around）。从极其现实的角度来看，人与人之间的良好协作具有极高价值：哪怕只是给予对方一点微不足道的帮助，都可能对他人的人生产生巨大改变；反之亦然。这种基于善意与互助的互动不仅完全符合务实的生活原则，更会带来深刻的愉悦感，从而构筑起前文所谈及的高质量“有意义的人际关系”。 ### [57:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3429s) 灵性的本质：理解自我作为更大整体的一部分 在谈及社区与精神追求时，雷·达利欧（Ray Dalio）阐述了他所理解的灵性。几乎所有宗教都会强调，融入社区并为之奉献是获得巨大幸福感的源泉，同时也能构建更优良的社会。对达利欧而言，灵性并不神秘，其核心在于认识到“我们所有人都是某个更大整体的一部分”（part of this greater whole）。当你能跳出狭隘的自我，去感知并热爱这个包罗万象的宏大系统时，那便是真正的灵性体验。 带着这种认知，达利欧坦然看待自己的生命轨迹与死亡。他表示，每个人都会经历自己的人生周期，生老病死是大自然秩序不可分割的环节，“我终将死去，而对此我感到坦然与平静”。他承认自己无法断言死后世界或不可知的事物，但他坚信并践行这种与自然宇宙共融的生命哲学。 ### [58:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3487s) 努力工作的意义：一阶后果与二阶后果的反向法则 主持人史蒂芬·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）探讨了达利欧在著作中关于“梦想 + 现实 + 决心 = 成功的人生”这套公式，并追问：“努力工作（hard work）到底有多重要？”达利欧直截了当地回答：努力工作能赋予人真正的力量。尽管很多人本能地排斥艰苦付出，但现实世界存在一条铁律——一阶后果（first-order consequences）与二阶后果（second-order consequences）往往截然相反。 达利欧以日常生活的饮食和锻炼为例进行了拆解： * **放纵欲望**：吃那些高糖多脂、即时令人愉悦的食物（一阶后果很享受），随之而来的二阶后果往往是健康受损、身材走样。 * **逃避锻炼**：躺在沙发上不用吃苦流汗（一阶后果轻松舒适），但二阶后果却是身体虚弱、机能退化。 * **努力工作**：工作极其艰辛劳累（一阶后果令人不适），但人的力量恰恰是在这种打磨中锤炼出来的。努力工作换来的是掌控力与抗风险能力，而这种力量反过来会让未来的事情变得更容易、更顺遂。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 一阶后果与二阶后果机制 accDescr: 展示即时诱惑与艰苦付出在不同时间尺度下带来的相反结果 subgraph BadCycle ["即时享受路径"] A1["放纵饮食 / 逃避锻炼"] -->|"一阶后果 (短期)"| B1["感觉舒适愉快"] B1 -->|"二阶后果 (长期)"| C1["体质恶化、缺乏力量"] end subgraph GoodCycle ["克制与努力路径"] A2["刻苦工作 / 严格自律"] -->|"一阶后果 (短期)"| B2["痛苦、疲惫、阻力"] B2 -->|"二阶后果 (长期)"| C2["获取力量、掌控自如"] end ``` ### [59:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3587s) 人类最大的悲剧：把思想交锋当成打架，固步自封 达利欧指出，一个人在保持坚定自信的同时，必须维持极度的开放心智（open-mindedness）。在他看来，人类最普遍、最痛心的悲剧莫过于：“执念于一个错误的观点，而这个错误本可以通过向他人学习、保持开放来轻易纠正。” 大部分人无法做到这一点，是因为原始潜意识与虚荣自尊心（ego）在作祟。当他人提出截然不同的观点或质疑时，常人下意识地将这种智识上的挑战视为一场“人身攻击或决斗”（fight），本能地进入防御和反击状态，死守自己的立场。达利欧强调，面对分歧时的正确反应应该是被点燃的好奇心：“我可能错了，他也可能错了，概率各占50%。既然我可能犯错，我为什么不好奇对方到底看到了什么我没看到的东西？”只有主动寻求压力测试（stress-test），让不同维度的聪明思想来检验自己的认知漏洞，才能做出更优决策。 ### [01:01:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3702s) 1982年的破产惨败：催生达利欧一生的两大核心法则 开放心态并非达利欧与生俱来的天赋，而是他在一次几乎毁灭职业生涯的惨痛灾难中换来的顿悟。在1979年至1980年间，达利欧经过计算得出结论：美国商业银行向拉美等外国借款人发放的贷款额远远超出了其偿还能力，一场史诗级的债务危机即将爆发。这是一个在当时极具争议的逆向观点。到了1982年8月，墨西哥宣布发生债务违约，随后数年拉美多个国家相继违约，银行危机全面蔓延。 达利欧在事实判断上完全正确，但他随后做出了一个灾难性的市场推论：他认定接下来的经济形势将极其恶劣，股市必将继续崩溃。然而，1982年8月正好是美国股票市场世纪大牛市的历史大底。达利欧在市场反弹中不仅看空甚至做空，最终遭遇了毁灭性的惨败： * **财务崩溃**：达利欧不仅让桥水（Bridgewater）客户损失惨重，自己也赔光了所有积蓄。 * **借钱度日**：他落魄到必须向父亲借款4,000美元来支付家里的日常开销账单。 * **遣散员工**：他不得不解雇公司里的所有人，桥水缩减到只剩他孤身一人，一度考虑是否要放弃创业、系上领带重回华尔街坐通勤火车打工。 在绝望的痛苦反思中，达利欧总结出带领他走向世界头号对冲基金的两大支柱： 1. **谦逊与极度开放（Radical Open-mindedness）**：战胜对犯错的恐惧，主动寻找他能找到的最聪明的人来挑刺、压力测试他的观点；决策必须分为“吸收信息”与“拍板定案”两步，先全面吸纳证据再做判断。 2. **构建全天候分散化投资（Diversification）**：通过寻找互不相关的优质回报流，在不降低预期回报的前提下，大幅削减下行风险。 - 惨败节点：1982年8月墨西哥违约触发债务危机，但也构成了美股历史性牛市大底。 - 人生底谷：向父亲借款4,000美元维持生计，桥水团队被迫解散。 - 决策两步法原则：在行动之前，必须坚决执行“第一步吸收（take in），第二步决策（decide）”，切忌在收集到扎实客观证据前被情绪绑架。 ### [01:05:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3903s) 决策者的终极跃迁：通过优秀人才实现自我杠杆 当巴特利特询问如何成为更优秀的管理者与决策者时，达利欧给出了明确答案：人脑的带宽与一天的时间极为有限，如果仅仅依赖个人努力（hard work），很快就会触及天花板；唯一的破局之道在于“利用他人来实现自我杠杆”（leverage yourself through others）。 达利欧把顶级管理者的角色比作交响乐团的指挥家： * **选拔顶尖乐手**：找到兼具极佳人品（good character）与卓越能力（good capabilities）的优秀人才，他们不仅值得托付、不会在利益上背叛，且在专业领域的能力往往远胜管理者自己。 * **高效节奏协同**：在桥水规模最大的巅峰期，达利欧有大约30名高管向其直接汇报。达利欧与这些核心成员大约每两周只开一次长约1小时的高效对齐会，随后放权让他们自主推进业务。 * **企业文化基石**：依靠“极度求真（radical truthfulness）”和“极度透明（radical transparency）”，构建出“有意义的工作与有意义的人际关系”（meaningful work and meaningful relationships）。只有在完全透明、坦诚直面彼此弱点的文化中，团队才能紧紧凝聚在同一崇高使命下，创造出个人无法企及的组织效能。 ### [01:08:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4092s) 桥水基金的“极度透明”与有意义的人际关系 许多组织和团队之所以难以走向卓越，核心障碍在于人们习惯于掩盖问题而非公开讨论。多数人总是担心伤害彼此的感情，不敢坦诚相待，结果导致沟通筑起壁垒。当有人表现不佳、频频“三振出局”时，若不能开诚布公地指出并解决，团队就永远无法打造出一支紧密协作的王牌队伍（A-team）。 针对主持人关于“桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）如何让人保持坦诚”的提问，瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）阐述了他在公司设立的核心机制： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 桥水基金坦诚文化的核心机制 accDescr: 展示桥水基金如何结合制度规范、透明反思与人际关系来建立坦诚文化 subgraph 制度与规则 ["制度与原则约束"] A["严禁背后议论他人<br/>（违者三次开除）"] B["极度透明机制<br/>（记录与公开所有决策过程）"] end subgraph 心理与认知 ["认知调适"] C["理智层面：认知进化价值<br/>像球队一样以共同胜利用心互助"] D["情感层面：化解直面冲突的不适感"] end subgraph 情感纽带 ["有意义的人际关系"] E["跨部门俱乐部与社群支持<br/>（公司出资补贴）"] F["参与彼此重大生活时刻<br/>（婚礼、葬礼、迎婴派对）"] end A --> C B --> C C --> D E --> F F --> D ``` - **“背后议论三次即出局”原则**：在桥水基金，任何人在背后对他人进行批评性议论，只要发生三次，就会被直接解雇。达利欧要求所有批评和反馈都必须摆到台面上。 - **极度透明（Radical Transparency）**：让所有人能够看到公司运行与决策的每一步细节，决策者必须公开自己的反思逻辑。 - **调和理智与潜意识情绪**：直面批评通常令人极不适。达利欧引导员工在理性上认识到，坦诚相待如同顶级球队的战术复盘，对个人进化和团队胜利更有利，避免了“当面一套、背后一套”的消耗。 - **构建有意义的人际关系（Meaningful Relationships）**：坦诚沟通必须以真实的人际情感为底座。达利欧鼓励员工深度参与彼此的生活，从迎婴派对（Baby Showers）到葬礼。为了增进凝聚力，他设立了一项资助政策：任何员工只要发起超过 20 人的活动俱乐部（无论是垒球、国际象棋还是观看球赛），人均花费最高可达 500 美元，达利欧自掏腰包承担一半费用，从而在没有强迫的前提下建立深厚的同事信任。 --- ### [01:11:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4269s) 规模陷阱与大公司创新力下降之谜 主持人指出，达利欧建立的“创意择优”（Idea Meritocracy）机制，旨在让最好的想法胜出，而非由于某人权力最大就采纳其观点。然而现实中，许多企业随着规模壮大、智力资源不断增加，反而丧失了创新力。 达利欧指出，企业变大后往往陷入官僚化和碎片化。人类组织存在一个被验证的临界点：一旦群体规模超过 75 至 100 人，彼此之间便无法真正认识，原本紧密的人际纽带便开始断裂。达利欧回忆，早期每逢节假日，他都会亲自为每位员工挑选个性化礼物，并在贺卡里写满长篇寄语；直到有一年团队扩展到 67 人，他发现这项工作已经繁重到“压断了脊梁”，让他清楚意识到组织已经进入了全新的运作阶段。 为了克服规模扩大带来的文化稀释，达利欧提出了“城市中的村落”（Villages in a City）的架构逻辑： - 既然无法维持上百人之间的点对点亲密关系，就必须将大组织拆解为若干紧密的小单元（村落），并在单元之间建立共同使命与凝聚力。 - 例如在年终晚会中，桥水租用大型场馆，既划定各部门专有区域以维护自身小团体的紧密感，又设立开放的公共互动区促进跨部门自由交流。主持人对此深有共鸣，指出自己的媒体公司正处于 90 多人的关键关口，面临文化割裂与团队人际疏离的相同挑战。 --- ### [01:14:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4443s) 招聘系统化与“人与文化”的长期评估 对于初创企业与企业家普遍存在的现象——嘴上强调招聘最重要，实际却把 90% 以上精力投入产品和营销，仅抽出一两小时甚至直接外包给猎头，达利欧强调，顶级人才的甄选必须完全走向系统化与数据化。 - **基于数据的画像匹配（Job Spec）**：达利欧将招聘转化为数据驱动的科学。通过长期记录员工在日常中的工作行为模式，分析哪些具体特质和性格的人能够在特定岗位上取得持续成功，进而反向沉淀为精准的岗位规格说明书（Job Specifications）。 - **持续评估机制**：面试发录用通知绝非评估的终点，而是持续评估的起点。入职后必须持续复盘：“根据现在掌握的更多数据，如果重新回到面试阶段，我们还会录用这个人吗？”若答案是否定的，该员工就不应继续留在组织内。 - **文化适应与能力评估的周期**： - **文化适配性（约 18 个月）**：考察新员工能否适应桥水直面冲突、善意反思、勇于进行“深思熟虑的分歧”（Thoughtful Disagreement）的高压进化文化，通常需要大约 18 个月才能真正得出结论。 - **优势与劣势全面洞察（18 个月至 2 年）**：对一个人长处和短板的全面摸底，往往需要一年半到两年的时间。 - **拒绝出其不意**：考核与反馈必须融入日常，每天开诚布公地讨论进展，确保团队成员在绩效与文化适应上从不感到意外或被蒙在鼓里。 --- ### [01:17:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4651s) 《CEO日记》社群招募推广插播 在访谈间歇，主持人史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）插播了一则社群招募公告。他宣布推出全新的私密社群“DOAC Circle”，并面向全球观众限量开放前 10,000 个席位。入选成员将获得未公开节目素材、录制时 iPad 上的提纲笔记、幕后花絮访谈，并拥有与主持人直接交流、参与选题和受访嘉宾提名的专属特权。 ### [01:18:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4702s) 中场赞助：前沿技能平台与时代变迁 在进入对前沿技术的讨论前，主持人 Steven Bartlett 提到当前商业环境正在经历剧烈重塑，诸如氛围编程（vibe coding）、AI Agent 开发、生成式引擎优化（Generative Engine Optimization）等数月前尚不存在的新技能，如今已成为企业运营的必备武器。他在介绍其团队 Flight Story 应对技术迭代的工具时，指出了全球自由职业平台在链接这些高精尖、经过严格审核的未来型人才方面的枢纽作用。 ### [01:19:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4754s) AI 的杠杆效应与加剧的社会两极分化 对话切入对人工智能的深度剖析。Steven 将 AI 比作“闯入房间的外星人”，正在颠覆几乎每一个行业。面对达利欧对此发出的赞同与兴奋，Steven 甚至一度怀疑他是否在反讽。达利欧明确回应，只要人类能够驾驭并掌控 AI、将其作为出色的合作伙伴，AI 就能带来无与伦比的“杠杆效应”。达利欧回顾了自己在桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）数十年的投资与管理实践： > “正如我所说，在我所做几乎所有事情中，我们都制定了标准并使之系统化——面对现实的运作规律与原则，你会怎么做、不会怎么做。这就如同我构建的决策模型，就像能自主下棋的国际象棋电脑一样。而现在的技术资源比以往任何时候都更加强大，它能在极大程度上成倍放大你的能力。” 然而，当被问及这种变革对“中间力量”（无论是在经济层面还是政治中间派）的冲击时，达利欧直言不讳地指出，技术繁荣的背面是巨大的负面撕裂： - **两极分化加剧**：AI 在管理和人员洞察上极具价值，但它将不可避免地造就极少数的赢家与大量的输家，进一步强化社会前 1% 到 10% 的群体对财富和资源的绝对掌控。 - **中间阶层坍塌**：政治与经济中层的被削弱，将成为社会最主要的撕裂力量。 ### [01:21:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4866s) 人形机器人与 AI 的汇聚：白领职业的替代危机与“无用之困” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 技术演进与人类替代阶梯 accDescr: 展示人类劳动从农业时代被取代体力，到工业时代机械化，再到AI时代高级智力被全面替代的演变路径。 subgraph Phase1["第一阶段：体力替代"] A["农业与工业革命"] --> B["拖拉机与机器替代肢体劳动"] B --> C["解放人类繁重体力（如役畜般的耕作）"] end subgraph Phase2["第二阶段：智力崛起"] D["印刷术普及与科学革命"] --> E["知识与智力取代土地成为核心资本"] E --> F["脑力劳动与专业技术分工主导社会"] end subgraph Phase3["第三阶段：认知替代"] G["人形机器人 + 尖端 AI 汇聚"] --> H["各领域专家被替代<br/>（律师、会计师、医生等）"] H --> I{"核心社会困局：<br/>当人类大脑完全被取代，如何重塑价值？"} end Phase1 --> Phase2 Phase2 --> Phase3 ``` Steven 进一步勾勒了当下的技术交汇：一边是以特斯拉 Optimus 为代表的人形机器人技术飞速狂飙，另一边是数万亿美元资金涌入 AI 模型研发。当一个拥有博士级全能知识的超级大脑装入能自如穿行于人类空间的人形躯体中时，社会的传统基石将遭到重创。Steven 追问道：“如果人形机器人比我们所有人都聪明，各行各业为什么还需要律师、会计师甚至大量医护人员？” 达利欧坦承，这些传统职业在未来确实将不再被大量需要。而这立刻引出了人类社会面临的根本挑战：在这样的世界里，人类该去向何方？ - **社会分歧与冲突**：面对即将到来的剧烈变革，社会很难和平达成共识，最先发生的很可能是群体之间关于应对路线的争斗与内耗。 - **生产力与意义的困局**：达利欧坚信，一个健康的社会必须建立在“绝大多数人都能保持高效生产（productive）并实现繁荣（prosperous）”的基础之上。 - **再分配的局限性**：单纯推行金钱层面的再分配政策远远不够。达利欧警示道：“无用感与金钱的结合，绝不是一个好的组合（uselessness and money may not be a great combination）。”社会如果无法在碎片化和意识形态对立中找到化解该危机的方案，未来将极其危险。 ### [01:22:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4973s) 从农业时代到机器思维：文明演进的历史先例 为了寻找应对当前科技大爆炸的参照物，达利欧回溯了漫长的文明演进历程： 1. **黑暗时代与农业时代**：土地与血统是绝对核心，普通民众在土地上的生存状态与役畜无异，权力和财富完全被地主与贵族垄断。 2. **印刷术与知识觉醒**：古腾堡印刷技术的诞生催生了知识与智力的大规模扩散，个人的聪明才智开始能够转化为财富，进而催生了大航海时代与思想启蒙。 3. **工业革命（体力替代）**：机械发明首先将人类从“颈部以下”的繁重劳动中解放出来，拖拉机等设备彻底替代了纯肌肉体力。 4. **智力资本时代（脑力替代）**：在当今社会，智力（Intelligence）已经凌驾于资金等任何生产资料之上，成为最核心的吸引力与驱动力，因为拥有顶级智慧就能源源不断地吸引全球资本。 达利欧指出，历史的演进是一个认知不断攀升的弧线。而人类当前面临的前所未有的命题在于：当我们在思考维度的最高层级也面临被全面超越与取代时，人类是否已经耗尽了转向其他新型能力的空间？ ### [01:25:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=5137s) 人性的考验：超越贪婪与零和博弈 谈及对未来的终极态度，达利欧形容自己既“感到兴奋（excited）”，又深怀忧虑。他解释道，物种进化的历史表明，几乎所有物种的灭绝，往往正是因为其过度依赖自身的某种优势，反受其害——智力同样可以被人类用来自我毁灭。 在达利欧看来，延长寿命和提升效率的技术成果固然重大，但决定文明命运的核心永远是“人性（human nature）”： - **幸福感的历史反差**：如果我们回溯到 50 年前的社会，虽然技术和物质条件远不如今日，但社会整体的心理健康与幸福感可能反而更高。科技的进步并不天然等同于幸福感的跃升。 - **精神追求与集体善行**：未来真正的破局点，在于人类能否超越个体维度的自私与贪婪，走向更高的精神层级（spirituality），为全人类的集体福祉（collective good）思考。达利欧特别强调了因果报应与互惠之道（karma）：如果彼此能以微小的付出换取对他人人生的巨大助益，构建双赢关系，世界便充满希望；反之，若在地缘政治紧张局势下继续放大人性中的贪婪与权力欲，后果将不堪设想。 面对 Steven 对人性深处贪婪、追逐权力与社会地位的无力感，达利欧给出了非常务实的建议：对于宏观未来的复杂趋势，不要妄图获得确定性的“终极预测”；普通人更应当接受这种不确定性，在当下立足自身，将前沿工具运用到极致以赋能自我。 ### [01:28:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=5308s) 闭幕传统：达利欧最具影响力的三本书 节目进入 DOAC 的经典尾声环节：前一位受访嘉宾会留下一道匿名问题供后一位嘉宾作答。Steven 透露这位提问者与达利欧彼此相识。提问内容为：“除了你自己的著作之外，哪一本或哪几本书是你推荐或赠送给他人最多的？为什么？” 达利欧给出了他的三本核心书单： - **首推书目**：演化生物学大师理查德·道金斯（Richard Dawkins）所著的关于进化论的经典作品——《伊甸园之河》（*River Out of Eden*）。达利欧正准备详细展开这本书如何彻底重塑了他对现实世界、演化规律与生命本质的底层思考…… ### [01:29:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=5341s) 顶级书单推荐：演化规律、历史沉淀与英雄之旅 在谈及最具启发性的经典读物时，Ray Dalio 逐一展开并剖析了深刻影响其底层思维模型的三部核心作品。首先是理查德·道金斯（Richard Dawkins）的演化生物学著作（如《伊甸园之河》River Out of Eden）。Dalio 强调，道金斯透彻地理解了“演化”（Evolution）——世间万物都在演化，人类不过是成千上万个物种中的一员。无论是人类还是其他物种，在生理机能与大脑结构上都有着高度共通的系统设计（例如大脑的大脑皮层、小脑、前额叶皮层等器官构造）。人类诞生至今不过约二十万年，在漫长的历史长河中只是一瞬，因此理解超越人类自身的自然演化伟力，是看清现实运行法则的前提。 第二本是著名历史学家威尔·杜兰特（Will Durant）与阿芮尔·杜兰特（Ariel Durant）夫妇合著的《历史的教训》（*The Lessons of History*）。杜兰特夫妇穷极一生研究人类五千年的宏大文明进程，撰写了海量卷帙，而这本仅约 104 页的精简小册子，将数千年人类历史中反复出现的周期规律与核心教训凝练到了极致。第三本则是约瑟夫·坎贝尔（Joseph Campbell）的经典巨作《千面英雄》（*The Hero with a Thousand Faces*，探讨英雄之旅模型）。该书剖析了人类本性、生命演变以及每个人在不同人生阶段注定会经历的心路历程。 - **理查德·道金斯作品**：透视演化的终极机制，跳出人类中心主义，从生物结构（前额叶、小脑等）与物种演替理解生命系统的运转逻辑。 - **威尔与阿芮尔·杜兰特《历史的教训》**：以约 104 页的极简篇幅提炼 5,000 年文明史的规律，揭示历史周期如何周而复始。 - **约瑟夫·坎贝尔《千面英雄》**：揭示神话学背后的普遍人性演变与个体一生的“英雄之旅”（The Hero's Journey）。 ### [01:30:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=5452s) 跨学科思维：跳出专家的狭隘，理解现实的底层规律 主持人 Steven 敏锐地指出，Dalio 的思考方式具有极强的跨领域特征——他能够信手拈来自然界、生物学、神经科学与历史学的基础原理，并将其丝滑地缝合到商业运营、宏观投资、个人处事以及探寻幸福的完整闭环中。这证明在现代社会中，单纯做一个狭隘的“螺丝钉式专家”远远不够，广博的求知欲与跨学科的通识综合能力才是顶尖决策者的护城河。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 跨学科现实认知框架 accDescr: 展示生物演化、历史周期与神经科学如何融汇为核心原则，并最终指导投资决策与人生幸福。 subgraph Inputs ["底层学科养分"] A["生物学与自然演化<br/>(物种适应、大脑构造)"] B["历史学周期规律<br/>(文明演进、债务周期)"] C["神话学与心理学<br/>(人性本能、英雄之旅)"] end subgraph Core ["认知中枢"] D["普适底层原则<br/>(Principles & Reality)"] end subgraph Outputs ["现实应用场景"] E["宏观投资与商业决策"] F["个人成长与生活幸福"] end A --> D B --> D C --> D D --> E D --> F ``` Dalio 极为认同这种认知框架。他直言，过于局限的专才思维存在重大盲区，因为真实世界的本质是万事万物紧密交织、互为因果的统一整体。“如果你想要真正理解现实是如何运作的，你就绝不能说‘我只想成为一个狭窄领域的专家’。”自然生态、经济周期、科技爆发与人性规律相互碰撞、彼此影响，只有站在更高维度建立跨学科的全景视野，才能看穿表象之下的现实全貌。 ### [01:31:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=5499s) 传承与共生：人生后半程的最大乐趣 对话行至尾声，Steven 向 Dalio 表达了由衷的敬佩与感谢。他提到，Dalio 撰写的《原则》（*Principles*）系列经典著作，以及官方团队制作的那些生动通俗的 YouTube 核心概念动画，不仅影响深远，而且以令人惊叹的极低门槛让全年龄段的读者都能理解经得起时间考验的规律。Steven 透露，自己本次在纽约计划访谈 16 位嘉宾，当他身边的挚友们听说他要对话 Dalio 时，无一例外托他当面致谢——他的同龄朋友大多处于人生“第一季”的打拼期，书中关于决策、失败与反思的原则彻底改变了他们的思维模型，帮助他们更加贴近成功与内心的自洽。 面对这些赞誉，Dalio 谦逊而深情地回应称，能够来到这里分享完全是一种“互利共生”（Symbiotic）的关系。他解释道，自己目前已处于人生的第三阶段，最大的诉求与欣慰早已不是积累世俗成就，而是将历经考验沉淀下来的规律传承下去。每当有人走到他面前由衷地说一句“你的原则彻底改变了我的生活”，这便带给他莫大的幸福感。整场对话在两人真诚的道谢与对智慧传承的致敬中圆满落下帷幕。 ## Notable quotes > [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=0s) 痛苦加反思等于进步。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [05:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=321s) 在美国，你哪怕只有 25 岁、挑染了一缕蓝头发，但只要你有真本事能把事情搞定，你就能拿到丰厚的资源并成为一名企业家。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [12:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=779s) 赢得技术战的一方，将赢得所有战争。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [21:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1314s) 我的本能就是实事求是，并就事态的未来发展进行下注。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [30:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1820s) 狡兔三窟。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [32:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=1959s) 让你的工作与你的热情融为一体，但千万别把钱的部分给抛在脑后。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [33:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2037s) 有意义的工作和有意义的人际关系。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [37:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=2262s) 自己有生之年从未经历过的事情，绝不意味着在历史上没有发生过；理解大历史的周期运行规律至关重要。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [53:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3180s) 神啊，请赐予我平静，去接受我无法改变的事；赐予我勇气，去改变我能改变的事；并赐予我智慧，去分辨两者的区别。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [59:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=3587s) 执念于一个错误的观点，而这个错误本可以通过向他人学习、保持开放来轻易纠正。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [01:21:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=4866s) 无用感与金钱的结合，绝不是一个好的组合。 — 瑞·达利欧 > [01:30:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y&t=5452s) 如果你想要真正理解现实是如何运作的，你就绝不能说‘我只想成为一个狭窄领域的专家’。 — 瑞·达利欧 ## Mentioned 瑞·达利欧 (Ray Dalio), 史蒂芬·巴特利特 (Steven Bartlett), 桥水基金 (Bridgewater Associates), 《原则》 (Principles), 《变化中的世界秩序》 (Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises / The Changing World Order), 《国家如何破产》 (How Countries Go Broke), 英伟达 (NVIDIA), 特斯拉 Optimus (Tesla Optimus), 理查德·道金斯 (Richard Dawkins), 《伊甸园之河》 (River Out of Eden), 威尔·杜兰特 (Will Durant), 阿芮尔·杜兰特 (Ariel Durant), 《历史的教训》 (The Lessons of History), 约瑟夫·坎贝尔 (Joseph Campbell), 《千面英雄》 (The Hero with a Thousand Faces), 哈佛商学院 (Harvard Business School), 波斯特长岛大学 (C.W. Post College), 超觉冥想 (Transcendental Meditation), 纽约证券交易所 (NYSE), 唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump), 富兰克林·罗斯福 (Franklin D. Roosevelt), 理查德·尼克松 (Richard Nixon) ## Video description Ray Dalio turned $5 into $160 billion by decoding how empires rise and fall. Now he warns: America is in decline, the UK is in trouble, China is gaining power…and your wealth could be in danger UNLESS you act fast. Ray Dalio is a legendary investor, billionaire, and founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund with over $160 billion in assets under management. He is also the bestselling author of 5 books, including:, ‘How Countries Go Broke: Principles for Navigating the Big Debt Cycle, Where We Are Headed, and What We Should Do’. He explains: ⬛ The harsh financial truth about Britain’s future and why millionaires are fleeing ⬛ The psychological trick billionaires use that most people never learn ⬛ The "Pain + Reflection = Progress" formula that changed Ray’s life ⬛ The dangerous wealth myth that’s quietly keeping most people broke ⬛ Why chasing success the wrong way could destroy your future ⬛ Why America’s decline is part of an inevitable 500-year cycle 00:00 Intro 05:21 Where Should I Be Living as an Entrepreneur? 06:17 What's Your Honest Perspective of the UK? 11:33 Are You Optimistic About the Future of the UK? 12:59 Are You Optimistic About the US? 15:06 How to Predict What's Coming 16:51 Will the US Dominate Global Power Soon? 21:53 How Would You Fix the UK? 25:14 What Happens Next in History? 28:46 Where Are We in the Predictable Timeframes? 30:20 How Should We Counteract These Risks? 32:39 Most Valuable Skills to Learn Right Now 35:30 What Games to Play in Different Life Seasons 37:42 The Most Important Strategic Decision I Made 43:54 Ads 44:58 The Best Way to Deal With Pain 48:48 How Do I Become a Principle Thinker? 50:28 The Power of Meditation 55:48 Are You Religious? 58:07 How Important Is Hard Work? 59:47 The Importance of Being Open-Minded 01:05:03 How to Be a Better Decision Maker 01:08:50 How Do You Find Honest People? 01:11:09 Why Companies Become Less Innovative 01:14:03 How Do You Find Exceptional People? 01:17:31 Ads 01:19:14 What's Your View on AI? 01:28:28 Top 3 Book Recommendations Follow Ray: TikTok - https://bit.ly/4ggWltw YouTube - https://bit.ly/4m5T9Cc X - https://bit.ly/3V8KTqc You can purchase Ray’s book, ‘How Countries Go Broke’, here: https://amzn.to/44LSPCO The Diary Of A CEO: ⬛ Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/ ⬛ Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook ⬛ The 1% Diary is back - limited time only: https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt ⬛ The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards (Second Edition): https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb ⬛ Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt ⬛ Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb Sponsors: Fiverr - https://www.fiverr.com/diary with code DIARY for 10% off your first order Linkedin Ads - https://www.linkedin.com/DIARY [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49RT6SQ8n0Y)

[0:00] 瑞·达利欧: 痛苦加反思等于进步。 [5:21] 瑞·达利欧: 在美国，你哪怕只有 25 岁、挑染了一缕蓝头发，但只要你有真本事能把事情搞定，你就能拿到丰厚的资源并成为一名企业家。 [12:59] 瑞·达利欧: 赢得技术战的一方，将赢得所有战争。 [21:54] 瑞·达利欧: 我的本能就是实事求是，并就事态的未来发展进行下注。 [30:20] 瑞·达利欧: 狡兔三窟。 [32:39] 瑞·达利欧: 让你的工作与你的热情融为一体，但千万别把钱的部分给抛在脑后。 [33:57] 瑞·达利欧: 有意义的工作和有意义的人际关系。 [37:42] 瑞·达利欧: 自己有生之年从未经历过的事情，绝不意味着在历史上没有发生过；理解大历史的周期运行规律至关重要。 [53:00] 瑞·达利欧: 神啊，请赐予我平静，去接受我无法改变的事；赐予我勇气，去改变我能改变的事；并赐予我智慧，去分辨两者的区别。 [59:47] 瑞·达利欧: 执念于一个错误的观点，而这个错误本可以通过向他人学习、保持开放来轻易纠正。 [81:06] 瑞·达利欧: 无用感与金钱的结合，绝不是一个好的组合。 [90:52] 瑞·达利欧: 如果你想要真正理解现实是如何运作的，你就绝不能说‘我只想成为一个狭窄领域的专家’。

[0:00] Ray Dalio: Pain plus reflection equals progress. [15:06] Ray Dalio: People always think that the future would be a slightly modified version of the present. And it's not. [21:53] Ray Dalio: People will go to the places that are better than them than stay in the places that [are] worse for them. [21:53] Ray Dalio: I'm a practical guy. I'm a realistic guy. I made my money... and it's my nature to try to be realistic and to bet on how things will transpire. And that's not healthy. The situation in the UK is not healthy. [32:39] Ray Dalio: Make your work and your passion the same thing, and don't forget about the money part... What brings people happiness is meaningful work and meaningful relationships. [49:56] Ray Dalio: God give me the serenity to accept that which I can't control, give me the power to control that which I can, and the wisdom to tell the difference [55:48] Ray Dalio: do unto others as you would have them do unto you [79:14] Ray Dalio: There will be a limited number of winners and a bunch of losers, and I think it's going to create much greater polarity... that top 1 to 10% benefiting a lot. [79:14] Ray Dalio: Well, we will not need a lot of those jobs. [82:53] Ray Dalio: Almost all species have come and gone... and one of the reasons that they have come and gone is because their strengths are not in all respects great strengths. You can use these things, intelligence, to your detriment. [92:19] Ray Dalio: I have found, and it's joyous to me, to know that these things have made a big difference in people's lives. [92:19] Ray Dalio: Thank you for giving me that joy.

[0:00] Pay attention. Pain plus reflection [0:03] equals progress. And from that [0:05] principle, my company became the largest [0:07] hedge fund in the world. [0:08] >> Managing how much? [0:09] >> 150 billion dollars. But I learned that [0:12] history of things that never happened in [0:14] my lifetime before were important things [0:16] to understand in order to predict the [0:18] future. And we can get into that if you [0:20] want. [0:20] >> Please. So Ray Dalio is the legendary [0:23] billionaire investor [0:25] >> who decoded the cycles of human history [0:27] to predict financial crashes, build the [0:29] world's largest hedge fund, and now to [0:31] warn us about what lies ahead. Are you [0:34] optimistic about the future of the UK? [0:36] No. What about the United States? No. [0:38] Why? Okay. In order to bet on what's [0:39] going to happen on the global economy, I [0:42] learned that there's five big forces [0:44] that create a big cycle that's repeated [0:46] through history, which lasts about 80 [0:48] years. The first is the money debt force [0:51] that creates wealth and opportunities [0:53] gaps. And it's connected to the second [0:55] force, the internal conflict where you [0:58] don't trust the system, causing wars [1:01] between the left and the right. And it's [1:02] not easy answers like tax the rich. And [1:05] we can get into that. But the third is [1:07] geopolitical force. In other words, [1:09] international conflict. Then there's [1:12] acts of nature. And then number five is [1:14] man's inventiveness, particularly of new [1:16] technologies. Now, the question is who [1:19] wins the technology war because the [1:21] winner of that determine how the new [1:23] world order works. Is it something to be [1:25] concerned about? [1:26] >> No. The question is how you as an [1:28] individual handle it. How do I as an [1:30] individual handle it? So there's [1:32] building your financial strength, [1:33] flexibility, importance of being [1:35] open-minded, and how to get more out of [1:37] the minute, not how to work harder. And [1:40] I really urge your audience to learn all [1:42] of this. So, first of all, [1:45] I see messages all the time in the [1:46] comment section that some of you didn't [1:48] realize you didn't subscribe. So, if you [1:50] could do me a favor and double-check if [1:51] you're a subscriber to this channel, [1:52] that would be tremendously appreciated. [1:54] It's the simple, it's the free thing [1:56] that anybody that watches this show [1:57] frequently can do to help us here to [1:59] keep everything going in this show in [2:01] the trajectory it's on. So, please do [2:03] double-check if you subscribed. And [2:04] thank you so much because in a strange [2:06] way you are you're part of our history [2:09] and you're on this journey with us and I [2:10] appreciate you for that. So, yeah, thank [2:12] you. [2:16] Ray, [2:18] I I want to describe to you who's [2:19] listening right now. And the question I [2:21] have for you is what is the most [2:23] important thing that this persona of [2:26] person should be thinking about at the [2:29] highest level right now. So, the the [2:30] person that's listening is someone who [2:34] is intent on improving their life. [2:35] They're they're really interested in [2:36] business, potentially starting their own [2:37] business. They they care about where [2:40] they're investing their their time and [2:43] energy, and also where they're setting [2:45] up their home based on in terms of [2:48] geography. [2:49] They are aspiring to accomplish some [2:51] goal. They're probably between the age [2:52] of 18 and [2:55] 50 predominantly. [2:57] And they are very very interested in [2:59] understanding what's happening in the [3:00] world that feels incredibly [3:03] scary, [3:04] fast-paced, and uncertain at the moment. [3:08] This is a very difficult question. But [3:10] if anyone I was going to ask anyone, it [3:11] would have to be you. [3:13] What what's one of the first things they [3:14] should be considering at this moment to [3:16] safeguard their future, their family, [3:17] their finances? I don't think it's a [3:18] difficult question. I um [3:21] I think it's it's very clear. They have [3:23] to understand how the life cycle works. [3:26] Okay. They have to understand how it [3:29] works. We were just talking before and [3:32] and on the book and there was the arc of [3:34] the life cycle, right? And you have to [3:36] understand that you're on an adventurous [3:39] journey, okay? And you have a certain [3:42] nature, [3:43] you know, those qualities that make make [3:45] you have your preferences and so on. And [3:49] then you're going after the things that [3:52] you like and you're learning and it's [3:55] going to have the ups and downs and so [3:57] on. And how you approach that. So, you [4:00] asked from the higher level if I'm [4:02] looking down, you know, like that life [4:04] cycle, that arc, what's that journey [4:07] like? [4:08] How do you approach it? You know, what [4:11] are your principles? How do you even [4:13] learn how to approach it? That's why [4:14] we're having these conversations, right? [4:16] So, that's clear. [4:18] You know, what's your nature? [4:20] How's the journey? [4:22] How do you find the path that's suitable [4:24] to your nature? [4:26] And then you'll go down that path and [4:28] you'll discover [4:30] and you'll evolve. [4:31] What's that like? That's what they need [4:34] to know. You said what's your nature. [4:36] What do you mean by nature? [4:37] >> People are born with and then also their [4:39] environment creates their different [4:41] nature, you know? We have our [4:43] preferences, our inclinations. We think [4:46] in a certain way. You chose to be [4:49] entrepreneurial, okay? You're living out [4:52] your nature, okay? This isn't for [4:54] somebody else. You know, some people [4:56] have a different nature, okay? They [4:58] would like to have the stability of a [5:00] job and clarity and so on. So, when you [5:03] have your nature, you want to know that [5:06] and then find the path that is going to [5:08] be good for your nature. Then there's [5:11] the particular tactical stuff. So, if [5:13] you would ask me, should I be in the UK [5:15] or should I be in the US? Well, that [5:18] depends on a lot of things, but that's a [5:19] tactical question. So, if I want to be [5:21] an entrepreneur and I want to build a [5:22] technology company, do you think I [5:24] should be in the UK or the US? I think [5:27] you should be in the US. Why? The US has [5:29] a culture of [5:32] um entrepreneurship, inventiveness. [5:35] There's a whole different culture like [5:36] in Europe, generally speaking, and in [5:39] and and in the UK. There's an [5:40] establishment culture, right? And it [5:43] here um you could be 25, have a blue [5:48] streak in your hair, and have the [5:51] talent, but if you got the talent to [5:53] pull it off, you can get the resources [5:55] and you can be an entrepreneur. It's [5:57] There's a culture of that that means [6:00] that it's happening more. That's why you [6:01] even see the differences in the [6:03] economies, okay? Where is the [6:05] inventiveness really happening? Okay? [6:08] It's happening here. So, I would say if [6:11] you want to be an entrepreneur, this is [6:13] an environment that's particularly [6:14] conducive to being an entrepreneur. [6:17] So, what is your honest perspective [6:18] about the UK at the moment? The UK has a [6:21] financial problem. Uh the government has [6:23] a debt problem. It doesn't have enough [6:26] money for what it wants to do and what [6:28] it can do. And so, what you see is the [6:32] non-dom problem, people moving, and so [6:35] and so forth. And throughout history, [6:38] when you have these sorts of things, [6:40] then there's great clashes in people, [6:43] okay? And the UK has been in decline [6:46] since the war. [6:47] Even the development of the capital [6:49] markets, can you raise capital there? [6:52] All of these things are much worse [6:56] than they are in the United States. [6:59] And it leads to clashes, as you said. Of [7:00] course, you know, there are five big [7:02] forces [7:04] that create a big cycle [7:06] that lasts [7:08] about 80 years, give or take 50, let's [7:12] say. And the five big forces are There's [7:15] a money [7:17] debt economy force, okay? Debts are [7:21] spending power. So, what happens is when [7:23] you give somebody credit, they can [7:25] spend. [7:26] And then but it also produces debt. And [7:29] debt has to be paid back. And so, what [7:33] happens is if there's not enough income [7:35] to pay back the debt, [7:37] then you have [7:39] um debt rising relative to income. It [7:42] squeezes out spending. People don't want [7:44] to hold the debt assets and so on. The [7:47] UK is going through that and has gone [7:49] through that and it's connected to the [7:51] second force. And we're all going [7:52] through this in varying degrees. The [7:54] second force is the internal political [7:57] and social [7:58] force. In other words, like between the [8:01] left and the right with wealth gaps and [8:04] opportunities gaps. We have big wealth [8:06] and opportunities gaps. So, when you [8:08] have big wealth and opportunities gaps, [8:11] there's conflict. Okay, conflict between [8:14] the left and the right. And when you get [8:16] to the situation where you don't believe [8:19] the system is working for you and you [8:20] don't trust the system, then there are [8:23] wars. There are internal conflicts [8:26] over over that and so on. So, the third [8:29] force is the geopolitical force. In [8:32] other words, [8:34] there's a cycle that usually goes from [8:37] one big war to another big war. So, the [8:40] last war ended in 1945, [8:43] '44, and we began a new order in 1945. [8:45] And the way that works is that the [8:47] winners of the war determine how the [8:50] world order works. [8:52] They draw borders. They say, "Here's how [8:54] it's going to work." And that's the new [8:56] order, okay? And that continues until [9:00] there's a rising power challenging an [9:02] existing power in the existing world [9:04] order, which typically is deteriorating [9:06] at that time. And then you have [9:08] international conflict, okay? These [9:10] orders, there's a monetary order, they [9:13] all break down. There's an in- internal [9:16] political order, they all break down. [9:19] And and there's a geopolitical order. [9:21] They all have this conflict and they [9:22] work together. The fourth force it [9:25] throughout history has been acts of [9:27] nature. Droughts, floods, and pandemics, [9:29] for example, have killed more people [9:31] than wars. [9:33] And acts of nature Nature has a big [9:36] effect. And then number five force is [9:39] man's inventiveness, particularly of new [9:41] technologies. [9:43] Okay? Because if you see that [9:45] inventiveness, that has raised per [9:48] capita incomes, GDP per capita, any [9:50] measures of the living standards over a [9:52] period of time and and so on. But it is [9:55] also related to the first four that I [9:57] said. Those four four forces interact. [10:00] Now, when we go back to your UK case, [10:03] okay, they have a financial problem. [10:06] They and almost every country now is [10:09] dealing with more of that internal [10:11] political problem. [10:14] For the same reasons. Wealth gaps, [10:16] opportunities gaps, what do we do, who's [10:18] got the power, I don't trust the system [10:20] kind of thing. Okay, number three is we [10:23] are certainly in an international great [10:26] powers conflict, right? And it certainly [10:29] affects Europe and the UK as we're [10:32] dealing with not only the Ukraine [10:34] situation, but the Russian situation. [10:36] And what does that mean? And that [10:38] relates to the money thing because, [10:40] okay, where's the money coming from to [10:42] have defense or military expenditures [10:44] and so on and so forth. So, that [10:46] matters, right? The geopolitical [10:48] matters, climate certainly matters, and [10:50] then of course technology, man's [10:52] inventiveness. [10:54] So, everything can be looked through at [10:55] through that lens. [10:57] And so, what does this mean for the UK [11:00] if all other countries are going through [11:02] this as well? Doesn't it just mean that [11:03] all countries are going to suffer [11:04] equally? No, no, no, because they're not [11:07] all equal. Okay, some are more in debt [11:09] than others. Okay, some people are more [11:13] willing to hold their debt than others. [11:17] Some means they they have more [11:18] resources, some are bigger and more [11:21] powerful, some are less powerful. [11:23] They're different, okay? They're all [11:25] going in different conditions. Some [11:26] countries have surpluses, some [11:28] countries, you know, are not in the [11:30] middle of where they're just having a [11:32] war. [11:33] Are you optimistic about the the future [11:35] of the UK at the moment? [11:38] No. [11:40] No. [11:43] Because it has high debt, it has the [11:45] social internal conflict, it has it's [11:47] affected by the geopolitical factors. [11:49] And in terms of inventiveness, it [11:51] doesn't have the culture [11:53] that other countries have like like the [11:54] US. [11:55] >> Is that it? [11:55] >> Yes, the cult culture and the capital [11:58] markets to support that at a scale that [12:00] it needs to be supported to play [12:03] seriously in the game. And for anyone [12:05] that doesn't know what capital markets [12:06] mean, basically the invest markets, [12:08] isn't it a simple way of saying [12:09] >> Well, I mean, it gets you the money. In [12:11] other words, you're a guy behind, you [12:12] know, what happens is [12:14] um [12:15] we have to enable people. [12:17] Okay, what what works [12:19] is finding great people, talented [12:22] people, and identifying [12:25] those who you want to bet on. [12:27] And enabling them. [12:29] And that works that's the most important [12:31] force, much more important than money. [12:34] Okay, because you could see [12:37] who's got the money and power and where [12:38] did they come from? Where did Nvidia [12:40] come from? [12:41] Where did they all come from? Okay, [12:43] they're guys like you, entrepreneur in a [12:46] sense, who's been enabled. Okay, by [12:49] because you have the talent and people [12:51] want to bet on you and that's the [12:52] capital market, so they give you money [12:54] to help enable you because they want to [12:56] bet on you and then good things happen. [12:59] But are you are you optimistic about the [13:01] United States at the moment? The United [13:03] States is very much a big picture. No, I [13:05] think it's very much in this issue. This [13:08] So, if I go down my list, it definitely [13:11] has this [13:12] debt money economy problem. We can get [13:15] into that, okay? It definitely has the [13:18] internal conflict power in which there [13:21] is a fight between the left, you know, [13:24] the hard left and the right due to [13:26] wealth and values gaps and people not [13:28] believing that the system will work for [13:30] them. And so, democracy is at risk [13:34] because they don't believe the they're [13:36] not going to follow the rules in the [13:38] sense they don't believe the rules are [13:39] going to [13:40] number three, it's of course the leading [13:44] one side in this great power conflict of [13:46] the world, right? In other words, yes, [13:49] between the United States and the one [13:52] side, let's say, and China and the [13:54] allies their allies on the other side. I [13:56] mean, in the news you just saw the [13:58] meetings of Xi, Putin, Modi and that [14:02] group over there walking down, you know, [14:04] and okay. So, now it should be pretty [14:07] clear how the sides are lining up. [14:10] Okay, you it's always better to be in a [14:12] place that's not in one of those wars. [14:15] Like, stay out of wars. [14:18] And of course, climate has an effect. [14:20] And of course, then we have technology. [14:23] The United States and China are in the [14:24] big technology competitions. The others [14:27] are really not in the game, they don't [14:29] have the money, that this innovation and [14:31] talent in a sense to play at that scale [14:34] and so on. So, we have a great, you [14:37] know, technology [14:39] war which can be used to create great [14:42] advances, but at the same time could be [14:44] used for great conflicts. And so, now [14:47] the question is going to be who wins the [14:49] technology war because the winner of the [14:51] technology war is going to win all wars, [14:55] okay? [14:56] In other words, they'll win the economic [14:58] war. [14:59] They'll win the geopolitical war because [15:01] technology. And I'm not saying anything [15:03] that hasn't repeated through history. [15:06] Give me that historical context if you [15:08] can just for for [15:09] The technology, for example, nuclear [15:14] Yeah. Nuclear [15:16] won World War II. [15:19] And and does this cycle go back further [15:21] than just [15:21] >> Oh, no, it goes back [15:23] that book, okay. [15:26] Um in order to understand these things [15:28] because I have to bet on what's going to [15:29] happen. I'm a global macro investor. I [15:32] studied the last 500 years of history. [15:34] And it happens over and over again in [15:36] all cases. [15:37] Oh, so I could take the British Empire, [15:40] I could take you through all the [15:42] empires, but the Dutch Empire before [15:44] that and all this and it it it it [15:47] happens all the time. [15:49] I watched your I watched your videos [15:51] about this and it's truly fascinating [15:52] how predictable this stuff is and [15:55] the work that you've done to uncover [15:56] this trend throughout history. I mean, [15:57] it's almost for me it was almost [15:59] irrefutable watching the evidence in in [16:02] things like a 40-minute video on YouTube [16:03] where you show how this played out [16:04] through empires. And it begs the [16:06] question, you know, cuz [16:08] when you live in the United States, when [16:09] you're when you're in the present time, [16:11] you almost never assume that the empire [16:13] you're in could fall. [16:14] You just don't you don't see how it can [16:15] happen. We're so strong, we're so great, [16:17] you know, we're so that doing AI over [16:19] here, have money over here, everything's [16:20] good, the sun's shining. [16:22] Of course. [16:24] People always think that the future [16:26] would be a slightly modified version of [16:28] the present. [16:30] And it's not. [16:31] Okay, watch over decades, but it's like [16:35] watching a [16:36] person grow. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. You know, [16:39] you watch your kid or you watch a person [16:42] any age, any age, and that's what you [16:44] see. Yeah. Okay, and you don't see the [16:47] life arc. Yeah. Okay, but the life arc [16:49] is in irrefutable. But the you do do you [16:53] think it's conceivable that in the next [16:54] 50 to 100 years the US could no longer [16:56] be the dominant power globally? [16:59] Yeah. [17:02] Yeah, more than conceivable. More than [17:04] conceivable. [17:07] What do what do you what do you mean by [17:08] more than conceivable? [17:10] I mean that these evolutions always take [17:13] place. [17:14] And they take place in a certain way. [17:17] And that [17:21] if you look at the [17:23] probabilities [17:25] and the paths and the symptoms, [17:28] there is a challenge the United States [17:31] is facing a number of those challenges. [17:34] And we're at a moment where um [17:39] it's a question of whether the system [17:42] and [17:44] the people [17:46] could can get control [17:50] of the situations and deal with it [17:54] strongly [17:56] and well [17:57] in a way where they are not [18:01] fighting [18:03] to the point of [18:05] damaging each other and damaging [18:08] the prospects for the future. [18:11] But I mean, the United States is very [18:12] innovative. [18:14] Got all these great innovative companies [18:15] here, so surely Yeah, but you can't make [18:18] generalizations about the United States [18:20] and you can't make generalizations, by [18:22] the way, about the markets either. Um [18:24] what you see is [18:26] um [18:28] 1% a small percentage 1% of the [18:32] population. If you're looking at the [18:34] breakdown of incomes and also you're [18:37] looking at the innovation, the stock [18:39] markets, which stocks are doing well, [18:41] who owns those companies and all of [18:44] that. About 3 million people in a [18:46] country of 330 million people are really [18:51] unbelievably doing great and you could [18:52] pick the [18:53] neighborhoods they're in and what [18:55] they're doing. And then there's the top [18:57] 10%, let's say, which is the people [19:00] around them and they're really really [19:02] doing great in that world. At the same [19:04] time, the bottom 60% [19:07] 60% of Americans have below a sixth [19:11] grade reading level. [19:14] Wow. [19:15] And that population [19:19] in terms of [19:21] the basics [19:22] being productive [19:25] you have to be productive [19:27] and be prosperous. So, [19:30] what what you need to have a succe- [19:32] successful society is to have [19:35] broad-based productivity and prosperity. [19:40] Okay, and that's a problem. [19:43] Okay, so which America are you looking [19:46] at and are you watching the war that's [19:48] happening between these? [19:51] It's a little bit complicated for me as [19:52] a as a bit of an outsider because I see [19:55] Trump [19:56] saying he represents [19:58] those people. [20:00] But obviously Trump is a from the [20:02] billionaire class himself. So [20:04] I mean is he is he a savior for [20:06] inequality? Is he correcting in I think [20:09] I think he sees a lot of the problem and [20:12] he I think he sees the debt problem. I [20:15] think he sees the internal conflict [20:18] disorder problem. And I think he [20:21] represents [20:22] the red let's call it the red states. I [20:25] mean you look at a map and there's red [20:27] and blue and you see where they are. [20:29] Okay. And he represents that and they're [20:32] united behind him in terms of doing some [20:35] things. Okay. So he represents let's [20:38] call it the red side which is located [20:41] where the maps shows red and then there [20:44] are the blue and and he's [20:47] he views himself as somebody who needs [20:50] to take charge and to do certain things. [20:53] Others in that population would say [20:56] those who let's say are not getting or [20:59] having the food stamp program cut off [21:02] or having other programs cut off that [21:05] they're dependent on [21:07] would say [21:08] well a second that's not representing [21:10] me. [21:11] And so we have gone that population has [21:13] gone to significant number behind him. [21:19] That are [21:21] devotees. [21:22] They're all in. [21:24] Okay. At the same time as we have the [21:28] other side which will have their [21:30] devotees. If you know we're in New York [21:34] City. [21:35] Okay. And the up to upcoming mayoral [21:38] election will be an example of the two [21:41] sides. Okay. And they will [21:44] try to use the system but there's a [21:46] question. Will the system have enough [21:49] support to work? Okay. But that's what [21:52] we have. Just just to close up on this [21:54] point of the UK in particular. If if you [21:56] were to try and fix it, what would you [21:58] be aiming at? I say this because we do [22:00] have a millionaire exodus that's widely [22:02] reported in the UK where I think this [22:04] year was set to lose 16,000 [22:06] roughly 16,000 millionaires. [22:09] When you look at the big big countries [22:10] like China, America, the UAE, the UK, [22:13] we're losing more millionaires than [22:14] anybody else. And I was wondering if you [22:16] think it's fixable and if you were in [22:18] charge of the UK [22:20] what you might aim at first. [22:22] It's difficult you know. First of all, [22:25] if you go back to the basic problem [22:29] which is there's too much debt [22:33] there are deficits [22:35] there's differences in [22:38] education and opportunity levels [22:43] and so on. [22:44] The most important thing that you can [22:47] have [22:49] is a strong middle. [22:51] Political middle? Political middle. [22:55] To be analytically strong [22:58] and also strong enough [23:00] to get the people to do what needs to be [23:03] done even if they don't want to do it to [23:05] get to be productive. [23:08] Now that's an easy thing to say. [23:11] It's not an easy thing to do. But you do [23:14] need that strong middle and you do need [23:18] to convey to people that you need to [23:21] have the strong middle to change [23:23] productivity. [23:25] And you know and are you in it? [23:28] Are are you in it? Are you patriotic and [23:30] in it and you know. But you look at [23:33] history [23:34] how did the United States come to be the [23:36] United States? People will go [23:39] to the places [23:41] that are better [23:43] than them than stay in the places that [23:45] worse for them. This is fundamental, [23:47] right? Incentives. Okay. So you have to [23:50] make the place [23:52] better. [23:54] Okay. Now I would say also you can take [23:57] pockets [23:58] and they go into the pocket and let it [24:01] spread out but you also have to have [24:02] this [24:03] equal education or you know you've got [24:06] to strive for equal opportunity. But [24:08] anyway, it's a difficult question that [24:10] I'm afraid [24:11] I'm incapable of [24:14] um [24:15] solving. [24:16] It was unnerving to hear the tone of [24:18] your voice drop when I asked it. You [24:21] slightly um [24:23] as if you you've kind of given up on the [24:25] UK a little bit. [24:27] Your facial reaction [24:28] >> No, I'm I'm just a I'm just a [24:31] I'm a practical guy. [24:34] I'm a realistic guy. I made my money. [24:37] I'm in the business [24:39] and it's my nature [24:41] to try to be realistic. [24:44] And to bet on how things will transpire. [24:47] And that's not healthy. The situation in [24:50] the UK is not healthy. And the situation [24:53] in the United States is very risky in [24:55] many ways. It's what we're describing. [24:58] So you know and then if you look where [25:00] are people going [25:02] then then you see the places that have [25:05] the qualities we're talking about. [25:07] They're civil. [25:09] They're creative. [25:12] The people aren't at war with each [25:14] other. [25:15] What happens next [25:16] in history? [25:18] Well, usually there's a big fight for [25:20] control. [25:22] Political revolutions and things like [25:25] that. [25:26] The system breaks down [25:30] because they don't trust the system. [25:36] So [25:37] will the legal system resolve that? Will [25:40] the parliamentary system resolve that? [25:43] That these disputes [25:45] satisfactorily [25:47] to the satisfaction of those people and [25:50] the other people who have different [25:52] points of view? [25:54] And the sides won't believe it. This [25:56] goes back [25:59] this goes back to Rome. It goes back to [26:01] Caesar. [26:03] You know, the Senate. [26:06] You know, this goes back through history [26:09] all the time. Right? And and then the [26:12] 30s four major democracies [26:15] chose to be autocracies. Okay. That [26:18] happened in Italy, Germany, Spain and [26:21] Japan. What's autocracy for anyone that [26:23] doesn't know the word? Well, it it means [26:25] a dictatorship [26:28] essentially [26:29] of a limited number of people at the top [26:33] who are autocratic which means that they [26:36] are directing things rather than a [26:40] democracy [26:42] in which [26:44] there's representatives of all different [26:47] points of view that get together and [26:49] follow rules to make decisions. [26:53] So the UK could become an autocracy [26:56] as could the US I guess. [26:59] Um you're going to see a lot of pressure [27:02] for that strong leader who will get [27:05] control of things and make it work well. [27:07] And will and you're likely to see [27:11] two different views [27:13] as to which side you know, the red and [27:15] the blue sides so to speak. You're [27:18] likely to see that type of [27:21] clash. You said the US is playing a [27:22] risky game itself. [27:24] Is that from a debt debt perspective or [27:26] otherwise? [27:27] >> Well, from these things. Okay. [27:29] >> from the internal conflict from the [27:32] changing world order, the geopolitical [27:36] world conflict. You know, I don't know. [27:39] We're playing with nuclear weapons and [27:43] in wars in different places and then of [27:46] course climate and then [27:48] the technology war how we're doing that. [27:50] You know. I saw that image the other day [27:51] of Putin and and President Xi in China [27:55] together walking together. If China does [27:57] become the dominant force in the world [28:00] the dominant power [28:02] does is that a smooth transition? First [28:04] of all, I don't think [28:06] either side is going to be the clearly [28:08] dominant power for for a very long time. [28:12] Um and the [28:14] the quickest way [28:16] to have it is some kind of a war and [28:17] that's a dangerous thing. And but maybe [28:21] it evolves [28:23] hopefully the way the Soviet Union of [28:26] evolved that the the worry of mutually [28:28] assured destruction [28:30] keeps everybody [28:32] not having [28:34] that kind of war and then then then the [28:36] systems one system or another system [28:38] wins. [28:40] But that's an evolutionary process and [28:43] you know I can't say and [28:45] um [28:47] Do you think much about time frames and [28:48] cuz I when I was watching the fifth when [28:50] I was going through the changing world [28:52] order, there seems to be somewhat [28:54] consistent or predictable time frames [28:55] when these things these transitions [28:56] happen. Do you think about where we are? [28:58] >> Well, they're long-term big cycles. [29:01] Yeah. Right? It's it's like a life [29:03] cycle. On average they are about a life [29:06] cycle about 80 years. But it's not [29:08] predetermined just like your life cycle [29:11] is not predetermined. Like if you take [29:14] care of yourself and you you know I [29:16] don't know don't smoke, eat well, [29:18] exercise and so on so forth then you [29:22] will probably have a longer life cycle [29:24] than if you don't take care of yourself [29:26] and it's kind of like that you know. And [29:30] so you see them in history they evolve [29:33] but you can see the symptoms. [29:36] Okay. You can see the actions and the [29:37] symptoms. [29:39] Which like taking a physical [29:41] then gives you a sense of where they are [29:44] in their life cycles. What 80 years from [29:46] World War II. 80 years from World War [29:48] II, yeah. [29:50] And you're seeing the symptoms. Yeah. [29:52] Symptoms are clear. They're all in that [29:54] book. You can see the charts of all the [29:56] systems. Is it something to be worried [29:58] about or concerned about [30:00] if you're in the United States? [30:02] No [30:04] Yes. [30:06] And then the question is how you as an [30:08] individual handle it. How do I as an [30:10] individual handle it? [30:13] Well, first of all, I think [30:16] I think you have to be aware of the [30:18] situation and the risks. [30:20] For me and my family though, in terms of [30:22] risks [30:24] and how I should um [30:26] counteract those risks. Is it a case of [30:27] me saving for a rainy day? Is it a case [30:29] That's part of it. Yeah. Um [30:32] there's a there's a saying in Hong Kong [30:35] um a Chinese saying which is a smart [30:37] rabbit has three holes. [30:39] And what that means is [30:41] you can see is it the UK or the US and [30:47] uh and I can then move to the better [30:49] place and get out of the place that's a [30:51] terrible place. So, can I successfully [30:54] be an immigrant or whatever and change [30:56] my location? Throughout history, that's [30:58] been important. So, the ability to go to [31:03] good places [31:04] and away from bad places. [31:07] Um so, that's part of it. [31:08] Um secondly [31:11] building your financial strength [31:14] is important, which has to do with how [31:17] you earn, spend, and save. That will [31:20] determine [31:22] the amount. [31:24] And then, what you do with that amount [31:26] is invest. And so, how you invest [31:31] uh is also important. [31:33] So, [31:34] if you have your financial ability [31:38] and you can make the move and then you [31:40] have knowledge [31:43] you know, about what's happening [31:46] so that you can change things. Those are [31:48] the things you need. So, on that first [31:51] point about a smart rabbit having three [31:52] holes [31:54] is it therefore [31:56] a better decision at this point in time [31:57] to not [31:59] to not buy a house? [32:00] Because a lot of people end up buying a [32:02] house and it anchors them to to a place [32:04] and it means that they then have to pay [32:05] into a mortgage. So, a lot of a lot of [32:07] financial advice most of us have growing [32:08] up is when you get enough money to buy a [32:11] house, move in, pay that mortgage for 25 [32:13] years. But if I'm in a new economy in a [32:15] new world and flexibility and the [32:17] ability to get up and go and move is uh [32:19] there's there's uh value to that. The [32:22] ability to move capital matters. And if [32:26] you look at history this has been an [32:28] important consideration. Yes, so it [32:30] matters. So, if you're nailing yourself [32:32] down and that's your primary capital and [32:35] it's nailed down there, then that's [32:37] those limit your flexibility. [32:39] And on the point of earning, spending, [32:41] and saving [32:43] wondered what you you're a You're a a [32:45] father, aren't you? Yeah. [32:48] What what advice are you giving to your [32:49] children about earning money in the in [32:51] the current world? [32:52] Where where they should set up their [32:53] shop, the skills that are most valuable [32:55] to acquire, the technologies, the we [32:57] talked about the US being a place to [32:59] one of the better places to build your [33:01] career [33:02] for all the reasons you described. [33:04] Well, that's [33:05] You know, that's kind of like the [33:07] particular that you asked me for that's [33:09] below the level of the higher level. [33:13] Okay? The higher level is I have a [33:15] principle. Make your work and your [33:17] passion the same thing and don't forget [33:19] about the money part. [33:23] Okay, if you make your work and your [33:26] passion the same thing so that you're [33:28] really enjoying your work [33:31] you'll have an enjoyable, satisfactory [33:33] life and you'll probably be better at [33:35] your career. That um as a result, you [33:38] probably advance and so on. So, you have [33:40] a happier life and you will have a more [33:43] probably a more successful life. But it [33:46] is true that the careers that you choose [33:49] will have financial implications. Mhm. [33:51] And if you say I want to be a poet or [33:55] something along those lines, you better [33:57] consider the financial implications of [34:00] that. That doesn't mean that you have to [34:02] go make a ton of money cuz I think that [34:04] that's I think a lot of people fall into [34:06] that trap that they think the money is [34:10] um like vast amounts of money is vast [34:13] amounts of success and that's not true. [34:16] In other words, is your work and your [34:18] passion the same thing? So, I think that [34:20] what brings people happiness is [34:22] meaningful work and meaningful [34:24] relationships. [34:26] Mhm. Okay, if you have meaningful work, [34:28] you know, that you're into and you're [34:30] what you know, your passion and your [34:31] work's the same thing and you have [34:34] meaningful relationships whether through [34:36] that work or beyond you going to have [34:39] probably a great life, okay? And so, you [34:41] have to keep that in mind and it doesn't [34:44] have much correlation past a certain [34:46] level of money Mhm. uh it doesn't have [34:49] much correlation with um that well-being [34:53] with the amount of money you have. And [34:55] if you see studies across societies and [34:57] you'll see that past that certain basic [35:00] level, there's no correlation between [35:02] the amount of money they have and how [35:04] much happiness they have or well-being, [35:06] okay? That the highest level of [35:09] correlation across societies and studies [35:11] of happiness and well-being is [35:13] community. [35:15] Do you have a sense of community? Do you [35:16] have those around you who are your [35:19] community? You'll live longer that way. [35:21] You'll have a more joyous life and it'll [35:23] be a better outcome. But anyway, so [35:26] thinking about those things I think is [35:28] important. [35:30] Based on your life cycle in this book, [35:32] Principles: Your Guided Journey, Create [35:34] Your Own Principles to Get the Work and [35:36] Life You Want [35:37] do you think you have to play different [35:39] games in different seasons of your life [35:41] cycle as it relates to generating [35:43] wealth? And what I'm talking about here [35:45] is really like risk profile um or what I [35:47] should be optimizing for. Should I be [35:49] Should I be trying to hang around with [35:50] Ray Dalio or should I be focusing on the [35:53] job that pays me the most? [35:56] First of all, yeah, the answer is yes. [35:59] And uh the second question you asked the [36:02] answer is um that you should be around [36:07] the [36:08] the people who are the best people to [36:11] teach you, to operate by them, the [36:14] mentors, and the learnings, and so on. [36:15] You should be around the best people. [36:17] And when I say best people, I mean [36:19] people of good character and good [36:22] capabilities, okay? And uh so, you [36:25] should be around the best, not the job [36:27] that pays you the most. [36:30] And I could explain why that is, but and [36:33] yes, in terms of that arc, you will play [36:36] it differently at different parts of [36:38] your life cycle. So, in the early part [36:41] of your life cycle, what you're going to [36:43] do is I mean, the more [36:46] learning and experiencing is the most [36:48] important thing that you can do in the [36:50] learning in the early part of your life [36:51] cycle. [36:54] It's like you're going to make your [36:55] choices. What direction am I going to be [36:57] in and so on and so forth. So, learn, [36:59] okay? That's that's most important. And [37:02] then once you're at the end of your life [37:04] cycle, you're pretty much relieved from [37:07] all of that. You're not going to be [37:09] working to earn, okay? You're going to [37:12] be free of all of that. You're going to [37:15] have [37:15] um and you have freedom of choices and [37:18] so on. And you're going to be thinking [37:20] about transitioning. [37:21] How do I transition well-being or how do [37:23] I transition my wealth or how do I [37:25] transition and so on, you know? That's [37:28] that's where you are. Still learning is [37:30] a joy [37:32] but at the same time in terms of trying [37:34] to accomplish it's not the same at your [37:38] late part of your life cycle as it is in [37:40] your early part of your life cycle. So, [37:42] I want to ask about your early life [37:43] cycle and what the most important [37:46] strategic or wealth-generating decisions [37:48] you made [37:50] that you would encourage everybody to [37:52] consider if their nature is aligned to [37:54] yours. [37:54] >> Okay, my nature was I hated school. [37:58] I didn't like [38:00] the whole thing of remembering this and [38:03] remembering this and then give it back [38:05] to me and there were these uh you know, [38:08] history like there's William the [38:11] Conqueror in 1066 and what did he do and [38:14] you know, like all of that was what [38:16] education represented. And when I was um [38:21] 12, a kid I earned money with odd jobs [38:24] like um I had a paper route and [38:28] um I mowed lawns and I caddied and I [38:32] took my caddying money and when I was [38:34] 12, I got everybody was talking about [38:37] the stock market. So, I put some money [38:38] in the stock market. I didn't know what [38:40] I was doing, of course, but I um I [38:43] picked um the stock. It was the only [38:46] stock I ever heard of that was selling [38:48] for less than $5 a share and my [38:51] reasoning was I could buy more shares. [38:54] So, if it went up, I could make more [38:56] money. [38:57] Okay, that was a stupid criteria, but it [39:00] was a company that was about to go [39:03] bankrupt and another company acquired it [39:06] and it tripled in price. [39:09] And I said, I like this game. [39:13] So, I got I got hooked on the game. [39:16] I'm still hooked on the game, right? So, [39:19] I liked it. Okay, that that affected me. [39:22] So, I barely got into uh CW Post College [39:26] and then I went to uh Harvard Business [39:29] School and that opened my eyes to the [39:32] world in the in many ways because of who [39:35] were there and what it was like and all [39:37] that, you know, the best and the [39:38] brightest kind of thing. But I always [39:40] still [39:41] traded markets cuz I always played the [39:43] game. [39:44] And I can tell you stories that you want [39:46] me to couple of quick stories? [39:47] >> 100% [39:48] >> Okay. [39:49] So, I'm clerking on the floor of the New [39:51] York Stock Exchange between graduating [39:54] from college and in the summer between [39:57] graduating from college and going to [40:00] Harvard Business School and that is 1970 [40:04] summer of 1971. [40:07] And on August 15th, 1971, [40:11] Richard Nixon [40:15] gets on the television [40:17] and says [40:20] that you know the promise that that you [40:23] were going to be able to take your paper [40:25] money and go get gold, you can't do [40:28] that. [40:29] And we're not we're going to cut off [40:30] that off. He didn't say it in exactly [40:31] those words, but money then was gold. [40:36] And what we think of is paper money, [40:39] fiat money, was claims on the gold. So, [40:42] I walked on the floor of the New York [40:44] Stock Exchange that summer and I thought [40:46] the market was going to go down a lot [40:48] and the market went up a lot. [40:50] And I didn't understand why cuz I never [40:52] went through a devaluation before and I [40:54] studied history [40:56] and I found that [40:58] in March of 1933, [41:01] Roosevelt got on the radio and made the [41:04] exact same announcement that you're not [41:06] going to get your gold and they're going [41:07] to print the money and when you print a [41:08] lot of money, you have that. [41:11] Okay. So, I learned [41:13] that history [41:15] of things that never happened in my [41:16] lifetime before were important things to [41:19] understand. Okay. I went back [41:22] then to Harvard Business School to for 2 [41:24] years and and 2 years later, as a result [41:27] of all the printing of money and the oil [41:30] shock because of all of that, uh we had [41:35] the I in 1973 oil shock. [41:38] And now because of my background, I'm [41:41] head hired to be director of commodities [41:45] at a Wall Street brokerage firm. [41:48] Okay. Mhm. Which and then [41:51] all sorts of things happened. Um [41:53] turbulence and so and so forth. That [41:55] firm went broke. I went to another firm [41:57] and I was [42:00] uh rowdy. I wasn't your typical good [42:03] employee, you know, follow everything [42:06] and so [42:08] So, I got fired. [42:10] And that was in uh 1975. [42:14] And then I but uh clients all liked me [42:17] and and for things and so, they would [42:19] pay me for advice and I continued to [42:22] trade the markets and that's when I [42:23] formed Bridgewater. [42:26] Okay. [42:27] And what happened? [42:28] >> That was 1975. [42:30] I just passed along Bridgewater 50 years [42:32] later. Yeah. Okay. [42:34] So, there's a journey there [42:37] that has failures and successes and [42:40] learnings. You know, I have a principle. [42:43] Pain plus reflection equals progress. [42:48] Okay. Your best learnings come from the [42:50] pain. It's a message. Pay attention. [42:53] Learn how reality works and how to deal [42:56] with it differently so you have [42:57] principles for real dealing with reality [43:00] better. [43:01] And I learned that process and from that [43:03] process, my company Bridgewater became [43:06] the largest hedge fund in the world. Um [43:09] extremely successful. Managing how much [43:12] at 150 billion dollars. 1,500 people 150 [43:16] billion dollars. And that's made you a [43:18] very wealthy man. It made me a very [43:20] wealthy man, which by the way, was not [43:22] my intention. [43:24] Okay. I just wanted to play the game and [43:27] to have meaningful work and meaningful [43:29] relationships. That was paramount, but [43:31] it happened to be the game I played. If [43:32] you're good at the game, you make a lot [43:34] of money. And now, I'm in a stage in my [43:37] life where I'm [43:39] I want to pass things along. I need to [43:41] pass things along, right? So, hence the [43:44] books, hence our conversation [43:47] and here we are. That's the life arc. [43:49] But I learned a lot [43:51] and so that's the journey. [43:55] I think B2B marketers keep making this [43:57] mistake. They're chasing volume instead [44:00] of quality. And when you try to be seen [44:02] by more people instead of the right [44:03] people, all you're doing is making [44:05] noise, but that noise rarely shifts the [44:07] needle and it's often quite expensive. [44:10] And I know there was a time in my career [44:12] where I kept making this mistake that [44:13] many of you will be making it too. [44:15] Eventually, I started posting ads on our [44:17] show sponsors platform LinkedIn and [44:19] that's when things started to change. I [44:21] put that change down to a few critical [44:23] things. One of them being that LinkedIn [44:25] was then and still is today the platform [44:27] where decision makers go to, not only to [44:29] think and learn, but also to buy. And [44:31] when you market your business there, [44:33] you're putting it right in front of [44:34] people who actually have the power to [44:36] say yes. And you can target them by job [44:38] title, industry and company size. It's [44:41] simply a sharper way to spend your [44:42] marketing budget. And if you haven't [44:44] tried it, how about this? Give LinkedIn [44:46] ads a try and I'm going to give you a [44:48] $100 ad credit to get you started. If [44:51] you visit linkedin.com/diary, [44:53] you can claim that right now. That's [44:55] linkedin.com/diary. [44:58] Just for context, people don't like [44:59] talking about money and I understand it, [45:01] but you're a prolific philanthropist. [45:02] Also, Google says that your net worth is [45:04] in the tens of billions of dollars and [45:07] I'm sure there's some people that have [45:08] clicked on this conversation and aren't [45:10] aware of the scale of wealth you built [45:11] up in the scale of Bridgewater Capital [45:13] and how prolific and famous it is [45:16] in the investing world. In that 50-year [45:18] life arc, one of the things you [45:19] mentioned is pain. [45:21] All of us will encounter pain. [45:23] And you said pain plus reflection equals [45:27] progress. [45:29] How have you learned to deal with pain? [45:30] You've had a lot of pain in all facets [45:32] of life cuz you've lived the life arc [45:34] and you continue to. How what's the best [45:36] principle for dealing with pain? [45:39] The first of all, um to calm yourself [45:42] down [45:44] and to get centered. Meditation has had [45:46] a big beneficial effect on my life. [45:50] We can get into meditation in a minute [45:52] of how it has, but the ability to, you [45:54] know, in a sense, [45:56] calm yourself down [45:59] and when the time is right [46:02] to reflect on [46:04] what's happened [46:06] both to understand how reality works. [46:09] You know, you want to be a hyperrealist. [46:11] I understand how reality works, [46:13] therefore I need to do this under this [46:15] set of circumstances, [46:17] which means developing principles. And [46:20] so, what I did [46:22] when I would do that anytime and [46:24] whenever I would think, what what should [46:26] I do, [46:27] whether painful or not, [46:30] I would pause, reflect [46:32] on, you know, what should I do if that [46:34] happened again [46:36] and that's how I would write down my [46:37] principles. [46:39] And what I did was I wrote down [46:42] a lot of principles. [46:43] >> principles. A lot of principles. If this [46:45] happens, that happens and whatever. [46:48] And then so, I wrote these principles [46:49] down [46:50] and then I found that in investing, [46:54] um if I can computerize [46:56] those [46:58] decision rules, [47:00] I could back test them, see how they [47:01] would have worked and so on. So, I built [47:04] systems, decision-making systems. Um [47:07] computer would make decisions. So, it [47:09] was AI before LLMs, but it was AI to [47:14] have decision-making criteria. So, it [47:16] would be like I I would make a computer [47:20] chess game [47:21] that would play while I was playing my [47:25] mental chess game [47:27] what moves we would make. [47:29] And it's completely automated and so on. [47:31] But I'm what I'm trying to say is that [47:33] reflecting on how does reality really [47:36] work [47:38] and what do I do when this happens to [47:42] that happens is the development of [47:44] principles. [47:45] And that has been invaluable and it also [47:48] makes me see things differently. [47:50] Because a lot of people um [47:53] and if I didn't do this, I would be [47:56] seeing almost as uh [47:58] a blizzard of things coming at me. [48:02] Instead, [48:04] I see everything as another one of [48:06] those. [48:07] So, let let's say for example, [48:10] it it's a species. So, it's like seeing, [48:13] okay, that's what kind of species is it [48:16] and how do I deal with that species? So, [48:18] it's one of those rather than just a lot [48:20] of things coming at me. Pattern [48:22] recognition of Yeah. But but let's say [48:24] if you think of a it's a duck. Okay. [48:27] Okay. [48:28] Okay, it's a duck. How do I deal with a [48:30] duck? Or it's a lion. [48:33] Okay, how do I deal with a lion? You're [48:35] being very strict. [48:36] >> than just a lot of things coming at it. [48:38] So, this principle thinking [48:41] and seeing it that way had a big effect [48:44] on [48:45] the quality of my decision-making and [48:47] and that helped. [48:49] Two questions I had there is to become a [48:51] principle thinker, I need to do more [48:53] reflection, right? [48:55] And then the other thing is [48:56] >> Yeah, think about how does [48:58] how does the machine, how does how does [49:01] life, how do these things work? [49:04] So, that's what I mean. Okay. And to [49:07] write that down. [49:08] >> Uh [49:09] yeah, write write down your thoughts. I [49:11] find [49:12] sometimes what I would do is I'd uh [49:14] dictate them into my iPhone. Okay. Okay. [49:17] I'd say, [49:18] okay, [49:19] this is how When you're making a [49:21] decision, why did you make that [49:22] decision? [49:25] So, not just make a decision, but think [49:27] about the criteria you're using to make [49:29] the decision. [49:31] Also, my emotions, my trauma, my [49:33] insecurities, my anxiety. Right. And and [49:35] you might say when reflecting on that, [49:38] is that helpful? Is that harmful? [49:41] And what do I do about that? Like, for [49:43] example, when what you're referring to [49:46] is, yes, [49:48] that emotions and the things and all of [49:50] those um we you have to understand that [49:54] the basically the brain's got two parts [49:56] to it, right? It has the logical [50:01] part of your brain, reasonable, tries to [50:03] reason things through, and that which is [50:06] conscious. And then it has the [50:07] subconscious mind, which is the [50:10] subliminal that is really driving you. [50:14] And so when you can [50:17] reflect, [50:19] okay, how are my emotions entering into [50:22] it? [50:23] What do I you know, and so on, and you [50:25] can think and you can align that. That's [50:28] very powerful. And meditation, by the [50:30] way, naturally does that, because what [50:33] you do when you meditate and maybe a [50:35] time's coming I should explain [50:36] meditation. Okay, how it works. [50:38] Um [50:39] what you do is it's a process by which [50:43] you sit quietly [50:45] and you repeat in your mind what is [50:47] called a mantra, which is a sound that [50:51] it's a word that has no meaning. Let me [50:53] say the most classic example of that [50:55] would be om. Okay, so you quietly there [50:58] and you go [51:00] with your breath you go you know, om. [51:04] Om, like that. But you need to be [51:06] taught. But anyway, I [51:08] om and so when you're doing that [51:11] uh because you're om is in your mind or [51:14] your mantra's in your mind, you're not [51:16] able to have other thoughts. [51:20] You'll see yourself wavering between [51:23] doing that and staying on the mantra and [51:26] then having thoughts. [51:28] Um but and then you go back to your [51:29] mantra. When you are [51:32] uh in the mantra a a lot, then it [51:35] disappears. [51:36] The sound disappears and you go into [51:38] your subconscious mind. [51:39] That's what they call transcending. [51:41] Transcendental meditation is the type of [51:43] meditation I do. [51:45] And so you go there and you're not in a [51:48] conscious state and you're not in an [51:50] subcon- unconscious state. You're in a [51:52] conscious state. So it's subconscious [51:54] state. It's not unconscious is you're [51:57] sleeping. Conscious is that you're awake [51:59] like we are. You're in this. So it's a [52:02] different state. Like if you hear that [52:03] noise, you would hear that noise. It [52:05] would be big. And not when you're [52:07] sleeping. But when you're in your [52:09] subconscious state, [52:11] then it's relaxing, [52:13] uh it's helpful, and this process helps [52:16] to [52:18] um [52:18] bring [52:19] your conscious state and your uncon- [52:22] subconscious state into alignment. [52:26] In other words, you recognize both [52:28] and it calms you down. [52:30] It's like a the ninja in the ninja [52:33] movies, you know, they're fighting, but [52:36] they it seems in slow motion. The camera [52:38] shows them in slow motion and they're [52:40] doing whatever they're doing along that. [52:42] It kind of makes you in that kind of [52:44] state of mind so that you're dealing [52:46] with what's coming at you in that way. [52:50] And so what you referred to is this [52:53] um these things that happen, and how you [52:56] deal with those is really important to [52:58] the quality of your decision making. How [53:00] influential was transcendental [53:02] meditation in your success? Oh, [53:04] enormously successful. I enormously [53:06] significant. Ver- very very significant. [53:09] In other words, that way of singing [53:11] seeing things. And how often And and by [53:13] the way, there's you know, there's [53:15] uh [53:16] I I would say [53:17] there's a Serenity Prayer. [53:20] The Serenity Prayer [53:22] is God give me the serenity to accept [53:25] that which I can't control [53:28] and give me the power [53:30] to control that which I can [53:33] and the wisdom to tell the difference. [53:36] Okay? And so to how you approach these [53:40] things, we're talking about reflection. [53:42] You asked me reflection, okay? If you [53:44] can reflect in that quality way, [53:48] then you deal with anything. And I've [53:51] I've dealt with [53:53] uh the worst possible thing. Um I lost a [53:56] son. [53:57] Okay? And I would have rather died. I [54:00] would have rather lost everything to [54:01] lose my son. So it's the worst possible [54:03] thing. And and then to see what it did, [54:06] you know, the damage and the harm and [54:07] fear from family, terrible. [54:10] Okay. [54:11] Then to go through that with meditation, [54:14] with reflection, and so on, [54:18] uh was invaluable. And people have their [54:20] own challenges, [54:22] but to be able to do it that way, [54:25] I I really urge your audience, I urge [54:28] you, to uh to learn that. That's very [54:31] helpful. [54:32] How how did that tragedy change your [54:34] your perspective and your your [54:36] principles in any way? On life, on on [54:38] happiness, on success, on all these [54:40] things that you've written about. [54:42] Well, it's again I you know, I go above [54:45] it [54:46] and uh you reflect on the life arc. [54:51] And [54:52] I realize at that higher level [54:55] that that's [54:57] what the life arc is like. If you'll In [55:01] in all my books there's this [55:03] ar- um arcing. [55:06] This arcing here. There's a bigger [55:08] version of it. [55:10] Uh yeah, there's this arcing. [55:12] Okay, I don't know if your camera sees [55:14] that. Okay, whatever it is. And that's [55:16] what life and evolution is like to me, [55:20] meaning you make advances. [55:23] You will have setbacks. [55:26] Okay? [55:27] If you reflect well [55:30] and you learn how reality works and how [55:32] you will deal with it, [55:35] you will get past that [55:38] and go on. [55:40] And that's just what it is. That's just [55:42] the way life is. [55:43] And if you do that well, [55:45] then that's your best possible life. Are [55:49] you religious? Are you a religious [55:50] person? I'm not religious, but I'm [55:53] spiritual. Okay. The Dalai Lama, who I [55:56] had the pleasure of meeting, told me uh [55:58] and I I agree with [56:00] um that religions are typically [56:03] um a mix [56:05] between superstitions [56:08] and spirituality. There's half of it is [56:12] that element that nobody knows, but [56:15] there is [56:18] the way people should deal with each [56:20] other. [56:21] There is karma. [56:23] Okay? All religions [56:26] there's a part of them [56:28] that says [56:30] do unto others as you would have them do [56:32] unto you, or what goes around comes [56:35] around. And then you get to the [56:37] particulars, okay? And it is true [56:41] that if we work well together, [56:45] that [56:46] even little things I can do to help you [56:49] can make a big difference in your life. [56:52] And little things that you can do to [56:53] help me make a the big difference in my [56:55] our lives. [56:57] And so it's practical and it is also [57:00] joyous. [57:01] Okay? That creates a relationship. And [57:04] we talked earlier about how that [57:06] meaningful relationship is like the [57:09] source of great happiness. But when you [57:11] have a community and you do that, you [57:14] have a better society. And almost all [57:17] religions will tell you that. There'll [57:18] be elements of those. [57:20] And when I believe in spirituality, what [57:22] I also mean is [57:24] um we're all part of this greater whole. [57:30] Okay? [57:31] We're all part of the greater whole. And [57:32] if you could see yourself as part of the [57:35] greater whole [57:37] and love the greater whole uh and [57:39] whatever, [57:40] that is spirituality, really, okay? And [57:44] so I will go through my life arc, [57:47] okay? And I will die, and I'm [57:50] comfortable with that, okay? In that, [57:54] okay, it's all [57:55] part of the greater whole you know, nat- [57:58] nature and whatever it is. That's true. [58:01] I can't tell you about other things, but [58:03] I do believe in the things I just told [58:06] you. [58:07] When it comes to living a a successful [58:09] life, you we've talked about having [58:11] dreams and understanding your nature and [58:12] aspiring for things and then [58:13] understanding reality, which [58:14] transcendental meditation's a great [58:16] mechanism and vehicle to do. [58:18] Um and in your in your book about a [58:20] successful life, you talk about plus [58:22] determination. [58:24] Plus determination. [58:26] Hard work. [58:29] If I want to be a successful [58:31] man or woman, [58:33] how important do you think hard work is? [58:37] Well, gives you power. It's very [58:38] important, right? Some people some [58:40] people, you know, [58:41] I'm not saying they want to choose it, [58:43] but the iron- the irony of things is [58:47] there are first order consequences and [58:48] there are second order consequences. [58:50] This is like a rule of life, okay? And [58:52] most of the time the first order [58:54] consequences, [58:58] whether they're [58:59] likable or not, [59:02] has the opposite second quarter [59:05] second order consequences. So what I [59:06] mean by that is [59:08] like eating [59:10] or exercising, okay? [59:13] Eat the foods you like, [59:15] second order consequence is probably not [59:17] going to be good. [59:19] Um [59:20] you know, I don't want to exercise. [59:23] Um the second order consequences won't [59:25] be as good, okay? [59:27] Working hard, [59:29] which gives you strength. Where does [59:31] strength come from? I mean [59:33] strength comes from working hard. [59:36] So, working hard will will give you [59:39] power. [59:41] Power will make things easier and make [59:44] things better. [59:45] That's just the way it is. [59:47] And being open-minded while you do it? [59:50] Something that was really important to [59:51] you. [59:51] >> Yeah. [59:52] I say [59:53] importance of being open-minded and [59:56] assertive at the same time. [59:58] Um [59:58] I I [60:00] I watch [60:03] people becoming so [60:06] tied to their own opinions. [60:08] Like this is the greatest tragedy of [60:10] mankind. [60:13] The greatest tragedy of mankind cuz it's [60:15] so easily can be fixed [60:17] is [60:19] holding a strong opinion [60:22] that is wrong [60:25] that you [60:27] could have made right [60:29] better [60:31] if you were open to learning more. If [60:33] you were said I want to be stress [60:35] tested. I want my thinking to be stress [60:37] tested. I want to make sure that I'm [60:39] making the better decision. And so I'll [60:42] be challenged. But a lot of people view [60:45] that challenging like a fight. [60:49] It's not a fight. If somebody holds a [60:50] different opinion, it should prompt a [60:52] curiosity. [60:55] You know, I don't know. Am I wrong or is [60:57] they wrong? It's a 50% chance. I don't [60:59] know. Maybe I'm wrong. [61:01] So, it should prompt curiosity and an [61:04] exchange to try to make sure that you're [61:07] seeing the whole picture and so on. But [61:09] subliminal instincts are I'm going to [61:11] stick with it and I'm going to have a [61:12] fight. [61:14] That's the problem. [61:16] Because there's too much on the line for [61:17] so many people to to It's subliminal. [61:20] It's It's It just goes back to the mind [61:23] thinking [61:24] that the intellectual challenge is a [61:27] fight. [61:29] And it's egotistical, you know, ego. [61:32] I must be right. As an As an investor [61:34] and entrepreneur, that's obviously [61:36] particularly important because [61:38] you're constantly dealing with new [61:39] information and feedback which you need [61:41] to [61:42] be flexible. [61:42] >> That was one of the two things that [61:44] changed my [61:46] uh [61:47] my my my whole direction and made me [61:49] successful. I get I can't explain it if [61:52] you want. [61:52] >> Please. [61:54] 19 [61:55] 79 and 80. [61:59] I had calculated that American banks [62:02] had lent more money to foreign countries [62:04] that they were going to be able to pay [62:06] back and that we were going to have a [62:08] debt crisis. [62:10] Very controversial point of view. In [62:12] August of [62:15] 1982, [62:16] Mexico defaulted on its debts. [62:19] And over the next decade, many other [62:21] countries did and it caused bank [62:23] problems. However, [62:25] at that time, I thought things were [62:27] going to get bad and that was the exact [62:29] bottom in the stock market, August 1982. [62:34] So, I couldn't have been more wrong. [62:37] I [62:38] lost money for me. I lost money for the [62:40] clients. I lost money. I was so broke [62:43] that I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad [62:46] to help to pay for family bills because [62:48] I was faced with the choice, what am I [62:49] going to do? [62:51] And And do I [62:53] Do I go back to [62:54] work on Wall Street, get a [62:56] uh [62:57] tie, get on the train and go back that [62:59] which is again not in my nature or [63:01] whatever. And And two things changed me. [63:04] Okay, reflection. [63:07] First of all [63:10] um I learned what we were just talking [63:12] about. [63:13] I learned humility. [63:15] A fear of being wrong. [63:17] And open-mindedness. [63:19] So, I wanted the smartest people who [63:21] could I could find to stress test my [63:23] opinions. [63:25] Cuz I'm always realized I could be [63:26] wrong. [63:28] And then I learned how to diversify my [63:31] bets so that I could dramatically reduce [63:34] my risk without reducing my returns. [63:37] Okay, that was the bottom. [63:40] Okay, from that point all the way over, [63:43] that following those principles took me [63:45] to the biggest hedge fund in the world, [63:47] the most successful and so on cuz I [63:49] applied it to the market, applied it to [63:51] what we did and so on. So, that notion [63:55] of reflection and then how do you deal [63:57] with what reality is like and then, you [64:00] know, okay, the Learn Learn radical [64:03] open-mindedness. In other words, unlike [64:05] there's a principle in the book, you [64:07] have to take in before you put out. [64:10] Or that um [64:11] decision-making is a two-step process. [64:14] First, take in, then decide. [64:17] Okay? So, yes, open-mindedness [64:20] you don't doesn't in any way minimize [64:22] your ability to decide. [64:25] So, you still have the freedom to [64:26] decide, but it's crazy not to be [64:28] open-minded. [64:30] You recognize that the biggest threat to [64:31] good decision-making is harmful emotions [64:33] and that two-step process is first learn [64:36] and then make the decision, which is [64:37] funny cuz it sounds simple. But when you [64:39] said it, I think about all the worst [64:40] decisions I've ever made in business and [64:42] I missed step one. [64:44] I forgot to I forgot to take a minute [64:47] and do the evidence gathering or the [64:49] like information gathering process. [64:50] >> Yeah, just smart people care about your [64:52] decision. Say stress test me. [64:56] Why don't we do that? [64:58] That ego [65:00] and also instinct that that's a fight. [65:03] Is there any advice you would give me on [65:05] becoming a better decision-maker? So, I [65:06] have a fund, I have many businesses. Is [65:09] there any sort of practical [65:12] simple foundations of becoming a better [65:14] decision-maker that we haven't talked [65:15] about? Get smart people to interrogate [65:18] my thinking. [65:19] Um be open-minded. [65:22] I think we've talked about almost all of [65:24] them. Um [65:25] I think then you have to then know about [65:29] how to leverage yourself. [65:32] Okay? In other words, as you do more and [65:34] more [65:36] uh how do you do more and more when your [65:38] brain has a capacity limit? [65:41] Okay? And there's only certain number of [65:43] hours in the day or the week. Okay? You [65:46] have to know how to do that. [65:47] >> Is that focus or is that something [65:49] No. [65:51] It's knowing how to do it through [65:52] others. [65:54] Okay? [65:55] It's knowing how to pick others and [65:58] orchestrate we- well. It's like uh [66:00] running a symphony or whatever. Okay? [66:02] Get the best players. [66:05] Okay, when I say you know, um good [66:08] character and good capabilities [66:11] and orchestrate them well. [66:13] And then provide that um that leverage. [66:16] Like I um [66:17] when I was doing the most, I had 30 [66:19] direct reports. [66:22] Whatever the number is, it's only at [66:25] it's the process is how to get more out [66:27] of a minute or a day. [66:30] Not how to work harder. [66:32] Okay? It's how to leverage yourself. And [66:35] you're going to leverage yourself by [66:36] picking the right people who you can [66:39] trust. They're not going to screw you. [66:41] They're going to operate in your [66:43] interest and they're going to be [66:44] capable. And so, a lot of people, what [66:47] you can do is you can deal with them and [66:49] then you can say like I I would deal [66:52] with them on this 30 reports. [66:54] I'd have maybe um [66:56] an hour meeting with them once every 2 [66:59] weeks. [67:01] And And they'd go off and do things. [67:03] And when you do that, you can even find [67:05] people who are much better at things [67:07] than you would be if you did them. [67:09] Because if you have these different [67:10] things [67:12] okay, you better because otherwise you [67:16] don't have the capacity. [67:18] You have these two [67:19] key challenges to to overcome as an [67:21] which is find these great capable people [67:23] that have great character and then like [67:25] bind them with the right culture to make [67:26] sure that they do the best work. Right. [67:28] And And in other words [67:30] it's meaningful work and meaningful [67:32] relationships [67:34] through radical truthfulness and radical [67:37] transparency. [67:39] Radical truthfulness and transparency. [67:41] Okay. First, if you can have um [67:46] meaningful [67:47] work and meaningful relationships, the [67:50] people are on the mission with you. [67:54] Wow, that's fantastic. But [67:59] y- [68:00] You better be truthful and transparent. [68:02] That'll show that you're honest and you [68:04] better because you have to get a truth [68:06] including what people are bad at [68:09] and how to deal with all those things. [68:12] How Uh and And most people hide them. [68:15] They don't bring them out into the open. [68:17] Okay? They'll Everybody's worried about [68:19] hurting each other's feelings or [68:22] you know, uh that. And then so they're [68:24] not honest with each other. [68:26] And And they're That's the barrier. You [68:28] We talked about the barrier of [68:29] disagreement. There's It's like that. [68:32] Okay, um you know, uh I don't know. Are [68:35] you good at that? Are you striking out? [68:37] If you're striking out and what is it? [68:40] How do we deal with it? You better talk [68:41] about that clearly cuz you need to have [68:44] an A team of players. You know, you have [68:46] to work yourself so that your team is an [68:48] A team of players who are tight. How did [68:50] you do that Bridgewater? How did you [68:52] make people honest? [68:53] Uh well, uh fir- first of all, um I had [68:56] a policy, talk behind another person's [68:59] back [69:00] um critically. [69:03] That happens three times, you're out. [69:05] And then I would have radical [69:08] transparency so everybody could see [69:09] everything. [69:11] So, you could see why I'm making [69:13] decisions that I would reflect. [69:16] But the main thing [69:18] is, you know, you know if it's happening [69:20] or not. [69:21] Okay? And I made that comfortable [69:25] because that's un- ordinarily [69:26] uncomfortable. [69:28] We talked about the fact that there's an [69:29] intellectual you and there's an [69:30] emotional subliminal you. Okay, I made [69:34] them understand like if I had a team, a [69:37] football team, [69:38] and so on, [69:40] that this is going to be better for the [69:42] team, it's going to be better for you [69:43] and you'll have your evolution because [69:45] what do you want to have dishonesty? Do [69:47] you want people to think one thing about [69:50] you and really say something different? [69:54] How is that going to work? So, there's [69:57] an intellectual [69:59] okay, we believe it. And then also by [70:01] having the meaningful relationships. I [70:04] mean, [70:05] I'm not I don't force them. I create a [70:06] culture of meaningful relationships so [70:09] that they [70:10] have known each other for a long time. [70:12] They go go to each others parties or [70:15] they go to each others [70:18] their are funerals, there are baby [70:20] showers, there are these things. Not [70:23] that anybody's [70:25] I I created uh clubs. I said any club [70:29] that you want to create that has more [70:31] than [70:32] 20 people, um whatever it is up to $500 [70:36] per person, I'll pay for half. [70:38] So, so I don't care what it is. If it's [70:42] play softball or play chess or whatever [70:46] it is that you're enjoying each other's [70:47] company or you want to go to [70:50] ball games or something. I don't care [70:52] what it is. I'll pay for half up to that [70:54] up to $500. So, I to [70:57] nobody has obligations to or something. [71:00] But if I have that kind of meaningful [71:02] relationships, so you can talk honestly [71:06] with each other. [71:07] I found that very helpful. And you built [71:10] a famously built an idea meritocracy, [71:13] which in my understanding means where [71:15] the best idea ends up winning in the [71:17] company versus just your idea because [71:19] you're the most powerful person in the [71:20] business. [71:21] >> Right. I mean, I want what do I want? I [71:23] want the best idea to win. This sounds [71:26] simple but but again, it's it's not how [71:27] businesses operate. One of the [71:29] fascinations I've always had is that [71:30] when businesses get bigger and they have [71:32] more intellectual horsepower by I mean, [71:36] if you just added up how many brains [71:37] they had, they sometimes get less [71:40] innovative and [71:42] it it feels like the the CEO [71:43] >> Well, because they become more more [71:45] bureaucratic and more fragmented. Yeah. [71:49] Okay, there's I found it to be true and [71:52] it's well established fact that if you [71:54] get a group of people past a certain [71:57] size, which is 75 to 100 people, [72:01] um they don't know each other. Okay, [72:04] they they they start to become different [72:07] and then [72:09] you lose those relationships, you lose a [72:11] lot and so on. I found it because I [72:14] at the holiday season every year, what I [72:17] would do is I would write everybody [72:21] notes, long notes in in their cards and [72:24] I would pick an individualized holiday [72:27] gift for them. And when it got to be the [72:29] 67 people, I remember the year, it broke [72:33] my back. I mean, I I just couldn't do [72:35] it. Okay, and I realized that at that [72:38] point, I was [72:41] going into another frame. Okay, and so [72:44] it's a organizational reality that you [72:47] can keep that group and then what you [72:48] have to do is then you have different [72:51] those different areas and you have to [72:53] create cohesiveness between those [72:55] different and [72:57] cohesiveness, common mission and how do [72:59] you do that between that? So, like for [73:02] example, when we'd have our holiday [73:03] party, where it used to be everybody [73:05] would be [73:06] you know, sort of go in and you have a [73:08] holiday party and everybody together. [73:10] What I found out is we had a big arena [73:14] that we would go to and I'd have both. [73:17] I'd have okay, [73:19] that department is in that area and [73:21] whatever and then they come out and they [73:22] all mingle together and so on. So, [73:24] there's an organizational [73:27] thing that you've got to realize in [73:29] terms of culture and and management of [73:31] that. [73:32] >> It's like villages in a city, I guess. [73:33] Like you basically keep build the [73:35] villages and then [73:36] >> Good example, yeah. Interesting. Okay. [73:38] And yeah, yeah, all media companies are [73:40] at that exact point now. It's at it's at [73:42] that 90 90 odd people. [73:44] >> Okay, there you are. [73:46] >> you said 75 to 100, I was like, ah [73:47] interesting. [73:48] >> Yeah. I was thinking about all the [73:49] things I should be doing now to [73:51] counteract some of those adverse effects [73:53] of the culture splintering or [73:55] relationships breaking down, but I guess [73:57] you've described it there. Uh [73:59] interesting. And I have to say, one of [74:01] the things that I found to be most I'm [74:03] 33 years old. I just turned 33 last [74:04] week. [74:06] It's crazy how [74:09] how often people say that hiring is the [74:11] most important thing. Yet when you look [74:13] at how what entrepreneurs are spending [74:14] their time on, it's usually like the [74:16] product, the marketing, etc. And it's [74:18] maybe like one or two hours in some [74:20] cases if they're lucky on finding truly [74:22] exceptional people. They often just [74:24] outsource it to someone else, the [74:25] recruitment team. [74:26] When you think back through your career, [74:28] how important was it to find truly [74:31] exceptional people? Of course. Well, I [74:34] systematized it. First of all, [74:36] um I think [74:38] that anything I do or one does can be [74:41] systematized. So, I would think what are [74:44] the personalities, what are the [74:46] backgrounds of the people that I'm [74:49] hiring, what are the choices, how do I [74:51] specify it? And I've and I got it by [74:54] also maintaining a lot of data with [74:57] people. There's um there's a TED Talk I [75:00] did that uh explains how like data [75:04] everybody's going around and they're [75:06] operating in a certain way. So, I know [75:07] what people are like. If you know what [75:10] people are like, you know what you can [75:11] expect of them. And then I would then [75:15] say uh in a very data way, those people [75:18] who are successful in these jobs have [75:22] the following attributes [75:25] that would create a job spec, [75:28] specifications for that type of job. So, [75:31] I I knew that in that type of job, there [75:34] would be that type of person I'm looking [75:36] for. Mhm. Okay, yeah. What works? They [75:40] work. Okay, data. And then I would find [75:43] that would be my job spec. And and so we [75:47] had the systems and then we had some [75:49] people who were responsible for doing [75:52] that because you're right, it takes [75:54] time. How can I interview all those [75:55] people and so on. But who can you trust? [75:58] And you're operating that way and then [76:01] evaluation process doesn't stop when you [76:04] hire them. [76:06] Okay, the evaluation process continues [76:09] from that moment and you still learn [76:11] more about what they're like and you do [76:13] that same process and still think would [76:15] I still have hired them? [76:17] And and if I wouldn't have hired them [76:20] in the first place, then they shouldn't [76:22] be there. And so I have a process and [76:26] people, people and process. Do people [76:28] change after a certain point? So, if you [76:29] find someone in 6 months, in 12 months [76:31] and they haven't changed, is it worth [76:33] giving them another year? Is it worth a [76:34] performance review? I found out that [76:38] for me, the big question mostly, there [76:40] were two big questions, but um [76:43] the big question is how do you adapt to [76:46] my culture? [76:48] And that would take about 18 months to [76:51] find out. Like, can you speak honestly [76:54] about what can we have thoughtful [76:56] disagreement? Do you like this [76:58] evolutionary process where you're [77:00] challenged and all of this kind of [77:01] thing? That culture. That'd take about [77:04] 18 months. And then roughly speaking, [77:07] then [77:08] learning about the people, [77:10] their strengths and weaknesses, [77:13] would take 18 months to 2 years, maybe [77:16] something along those lines. [77:18] And so then, you know, you could pretty [77:21] much decide. 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[79:14] AI is a bit of an alien that seems to [79:16] have entered the room um [79:18] and has is going to change Every every [79:20] every industry. Great. [79:24] Yeah. I can't tell if you're being [79:25] sarcastic. No. [79:27] Truly. If you are [79:30] working with it, controlling it, if it's [79:33] a good partner, to be able to get a lot [79:35] of leverage, it's [79:38] truly fantastic. As I said, in almost [79:41] everything I did, [79:43] we had the crit criteria, we had the [79:44] systematized, would you do that, would [79:46] you not do that, how to you know, how [79:48] does reality work, what are the [79:49] principles. And And so, it's a fantastic [79:54] leveraging. Like I described, you know, [79:56] I would make the decision-making model, [79:58] like the computer chess game that would [80:00] make it. Well, now it's better than [80:03] ever, those those resources. So, it [80:06] leverages you enormously. What about [80:08] having a strong middle? We talked about [80:10] having a strong sort of economic [80:11] political middle. Political middle, [80:13] yeah. Yeah. [80:15] Is it going to drive inequality? [80:16] >> Yes, it's going to That's like all good [80:18] like all things, it's going to be [80:22] it has good things and bad things, and [80:24] we were talking, let's say, first about [80:26] managing and doing that. I think in [80:29] managing and knowing what people are [80:30] like and how they're all it's going to [80:32] be very very valuable, mostly very [80:36] valuable. In terms of changing [80:40] there will be [80:41] a limited number of winners and a bunch [80:44] of losers, and I think it's going to [80:47] create much greater polarity, which as [80:50] we're seeing [80:52] um [80:53] through the system the ways that we [80:54] talked about, you know, that top 1 to [80:58] 10% benefiting a lot and then [81:02] so that will be a a dividing [81:05] a force, I think. It's going to going to [81:06] pose the question with robotics [81:08] accelerating at the speed of of light [81:10] with Optimus and Tesla and all the [81:12] things they're doing and all these other [81:13] companies, humanoid robots, and then [81:15] with artificial intelligence [81:17] having trillions of dollars plowed into [81:19] it and accelerating. We're in this crazy [81:21] boom at the moment. [81:22] With these two things combining, you're [81:24] going to be able to have a humanoid [81:25] robot who that can navigate human [81:27] spaces, but is also smarter than I am. [81:30] Lawyers, accountants, [81:32] uh [81:34] lots of people in the medical [81:35] profession. Why would you Why would one [81:37] need them [81:39] if we had a humanoid robot that is [81:41] smarter than all of us and has a PhD in [81:43] everything? Well, we will not need a lot [81:46] of those jobs for the reasons that [81:48] you're saying. Okay. [81:51] And then the question is what our [81:53] society does. [81:56] And what do you think we do in such a [81:58] world? [81:59] I think we fight over about what we do, [82:02] unfortunately. Um [82:04] but as I say, [82:06] I don't think we have escaped a world [82:09] where [82:10] most people [82:12] to have a healthy society, most people [82:15] have to be productive [82:17] and prosperous. I don't I I think people [82:21] need to be Now, certainly [82:23] there and there certainly needs to be a [82:25] redistribution [82:28] policy. I don't think that's just a [82:30] redistribution of money policy [82:33] because uselessness and money may not be [82:38] a great combination. [82:40] So, I think that you have that has to be [82:43] figured out, and the question is whether [82:46] we're too fragmented [82:48] to figure that out and agree on it, and [82:51] I'm worried about that. [82:53] Interesting times. Is there any [82:55] historical precedents for this in your [82:56] view? Someone that knows history. Is [82:58] there any historical precedents for [82:59] something like AI and robotics [83:01] converging? [83:01] >> Well, um [83:04] through [83:07] um evolution, [83:10] we have gone from [83:13] a period of time which was called the [83:15] Dark Ages or the Agricultural Age [83:18] in which basically [83:21] there was land, it's agricultural and so [83:24] on, and people were treated and they [83:27] were essentially like oxen, most people. [83:30] And then there were the landowners who [83:32] were nobles, and then there were the [83:33] royalty who were the families that [83:36] control most things and so on. And then [83:39] in history, with the [83:41] invention of the printing press, there [83:45] became more knowledge [83:48] um and more intelligence, [83:51] and we see an evolution in which [83:54] you start to see new ages emerge and [83:58] thinking emerge and power change. And I [84:01] won't take you through the whole [84:02] history, but you start to see that [84:05] individuals can be clever enough to earn [84:08] money that So, you begin the Age of [84:12] Exploration and the Industrial [84:15] Revolutions in which machines replaced [84:18] people. [84:19] And it's almost like they first replaced [84:22] them physically, that [84:25] In other words, they didn't have they [84:26] were not like oxen doing the thing, so [84:28] you get a tractor or something, and it [84:31] don't and it's almost like from the body [84:33] up in terms of the mind. And so, you've [84:37] seen that evolution through time and the [84:41] rise of intelligence in its various [84:43] forms go through this arc [84:46] of rising in intelligence, and now you [84:50] see that intelligence matters more than [84:53] anything, okay? It matters more than [84:55] money, it matters more than anything [84:57] because intelligence will attract people [85:00] among those with money to invest in the [85:02] the development of that. And so, we have [85:05] seen this arc through history develop in [85:10] that way, right? And we've seen people [85:12] replaced. Now, the question is, as we [85:15] get higher and higher in thinking, okay, [85:19] whether we've run out of capacity to [85:22] shift or whether we're just going to be [85:24] totally replaced. Our muscles have been [85:26] totally replaced, but okay, as this is [85:29] happening, our best thinking may be [85:32] totally replaced, and we're going to [85:34] have to deal with that question. [85:37] Are you hopeful? [85:39] I'm excited. [85:42] I'm [85:45] I think it all comes down to human [85:46] nature. Okay. I'm excited in that [85:52] fast forward, make the most of it, [85:56] jump on it, woo, you know, I'm excited. [86:00] I've also watched [86:02] the evolution of species. [86:06] Almost all species have come and gone [86:09] for certain reasons. And they one of the [86:12] reasons [86:13] that they come have come and gone is [86:15] because almost their strengths are not [86:18] in all respects great strengths. You can [86:21] use these things, intelligence, to your [86:24] detriment. [86:26] And I believe that um the things that [86:31] these technologies and so on bring us, [86:34] while very important, extends life [86:36] expectancy and all of that, [86:41] is not important as important as human [86:42] nature. [86:45] And so, if you were to go back in time [86:47] and were different societies, do you [86:49] have happier societies? Is the [86:51] well-being greater? [86:53] Okay. So, you can go 50 years ago, and [86:56] you might say the well-being is greater [86:59] 50 years ago, not in all ways, not in [87:02] in many ways the technologies and and [87:05] the consequences of those are much [87:06] better, but you may have had a better [87:08] life, and it's human nature of how [87:11] people are going to deal with each [87:13] other. So, I think the real question is [87:16] can people rise above [87:19] this? [87:20] And and which it goes back to the [87:22] spirituality question, can people then [87:25] rise above it so that they think of the [87:29] collective good, and they think of, you [87:32] know, collectively, how do we make the [87:34] best, and also karma, you know, in other [87:37] words, [87:38] the realization that if I help you in [87:42] ways that can be so simple for me to [87:43] help you and make such a big difference [87:45] in your life, and you do the same, and [87:47] we have win-win relationships, it'll be [87:50] good, but if we don't do that, and I [87:54] worry about human nature, and I worry [87:56] about this process. Especially when [87:58] you've got geopolitical [87:59] tensions and It's because of human [88:01] nature. [88:03] I've had a lot of conversations on the [88:04] podcast about AI, and I just can't seem [88:06] to get to my own solid conclusion about [88:08] this, because when I look at human [88:09] nature, as you say, I see greed, I see [88:12] power hunger, status. Yeah, some [88:15] problems you just just accept the fact [88:18] that you may not be able to be confident [88:20] of the meta prediction in the future, so [88:21] it'll always be a question, and just get [88:23] on with the fact of using it for [88:25] yourself in the best way that works for [88:26] you. That's what I'm doing. [88:28] We have a closing tradition on this [88:29] podcast where the last guest leaves a [88:30] question for the next, not knowing who [88:32] they're leaving it for. [88:33] You know this person. [88:34] Um [88:36] because I've seen you with them. Um the [88:38] question they left for you is what is a [88:40] book or books [88:42] that you've recommended or gifted more [88:44] than others, and why? [88:46] Can't say your own, but I won't. Uh [88:48] right. [88:49] Um [88:50] There are three books. [88:53] There's a book on evolution but written [88:56] by Richard Dawkins. [88:58] Uh River from [89:01] Eden, I think it's called. [89:03] Then a book by [89:05] um [89:07] Will and Ariel Durant, which are the [89:09] maybe the greatest historians [89:12] in time, [89:13] and it's called Lessons from History. [89:16] It's a very short book. I think it's 104 [89:18] pages. They wrote massive amounts about [89:22] 5,000 years of history and so on and [89:24] they sort of condensed their lessons, [89:27] lessons from history. [89:29] And then [89:31] um [89:32] Joseph Campbell's The Hero's Journey. [89:37] Is it the the hero with a thousand [89:39] faces? [89:40] >> Yes, that's it. Hero with a thousand [89:41] faces. And why Dawkins book? Why did you [89:44] say that one? [89:44] >> Oh, he understands evolution. [89:47] Everything is evolving. [89:49] Okay, all species. Man is one of 10,000 [89:52] species. [89:54] I mean and they're and they're all [89:56] structured similarly. There's a [89:57] structure. They you know, like um two [90:01] eyes, uh a brain that has a structure to [90:04] it um that and the same parts of the [90:06] brain. There's the cerebrum, the [90:08] cerebellum, the prefrontal cortex. [90:10] There's this structure that makes you [90:12] think differently and and so on. There's [90:15] evolution. There's all evolution. So, [90:17] it's not just limited to [90:20] um human evolution or what humans are [90:22] like. It's the force of evolution. Man [90:25] is only [90:26] um [90:27] mankind's only about 200,000 years old. [90:30] That's in history, that's short, okay? [90:33] And and the species and all species [90:36] evolve, okay? And it's very interesting. [90:39] So, that's you know, that's what his [90:41] books are about and you know, I think [90:43] they're very good. And Joseph Campbell's [90:44] The Hero's Journey, the hero with a [90:46] thousand faces. [90:47] >> it's about human nature and and the [90:49] evolution of life and the life journey [90:52] that we're talking about. What I find so [90:53] interesting, Ray, is how you draw on [90:56] principles from other domains, whether [90:58] it's from nature or biology as you were [91:00] talking about there [91:01] to tie in to your work in business and [91:04] investing and everything else and life [91:06] and happiness. And it really says [91:08] something to me about [91:11] being more eclectic and be broadly [91:14] curious in order to be successful in my [91:15] modern Well, I I yeah, I just [91:18] see I I don't is that to me maybe too [91:21] much of a specialist that kind of [91:23] mentality, but the world is being [91:25] interrelated to these things. If you [91:27] want to understand how reality works, [91:31] um you can't say I'm going to be just a [91:33] specialist. [91:35] I mean these are all affected by each [91:37] other. Mhm. [91:39] Thank you so much for write for writing [91:41] these books. [91:42] They are iconic. And uh the YouTube that [91:45] explain these these books are iconic. I [91:48] don't know who you have on your team [91:49] that makes the animations and pulls it [91:51] all together, but not only is the [91:52] content [91:54] so important because they are [91:55] principles, so they're enduring through [91:57] time, but they're so unbelievably [91:59] accessible to all people of all ages. [92:01] And if if you if people haven't read [92:03] this book, I'd be shocked, but um all of [92:06] these books are fantastic. The this book [92:07] Principles by Ray Dalio, which I'm going [92:09] to link all of them below for anyone [92:10] that wants to read them. I suggest you [92:11] read them all. [92:13] Um will be formative in your life even [92:14] if you're not interested in business or [92:16] investing because as as it says in the [92:17] book, they're principles and the [92:19] the economy affects us all in ways that [92:21] we might not understand. We're all [92:23] trying to be successful or happy in our [92:24] own right and that that's interwoven [92:26] into all of these books. So, thank you. [92:27] I hope you write more books. [92:28] >> Well, I and thank you because yeah, I'm [92:30] at a stage in my life. This is a [92:32] symbiotic relationship, otherwise we [92:33] wouldn't be here. Okay? And my um [92:36] my benefit is that I want to pass along [92:39] these things and we're doing it together [92:41] and I have found and it's joyous to me [92:44] to know that these things have made a [92:46] big difference in people's lives. People [92:48] come up to me and they say thank you for [92:50] the difference you've made and you know, [92:51] at this stage in my life, that's what I [92:53] want to do. I think that's an [92:54] understatement. I think it's had a [92:55] profound impact. In fact, every person I [92:57] know, all of my best friends have taken [93:00] something from your work, which has had [93:01] a profound impact on their [93:02] decision-making, which has led them to [93:04] be happier in some way. And when I told [93:05] my friends that I was interviewing you, [93:07] I'm interviewing 16 people while I'm in [93:08] New York over the over the next month. [93:10] When I told my friends, my best friends [93:12] in the world that I'm interviewing you, [93:13] all of them were telling me to pass on a [93:16] message of thanks because there's [93:18] something in one of these books that's [93:19] helped them and they're all young people [93:20] in that first season of their life and [93:22] there's there's something in all of [93:23] these books that's um pushed them closer [93:25] to their success and their happiness. [93:27] So, thank you for on behalf of me cuz [93:28] you've had a profound impact on me, but [93:30] thank [93:30] >> Thank you for giving me that joy. [93:32] I know I mean you know that. Thank you. [93:33] I really really mean that. Thank you so [93:34] much, Ray.