Professor Jiang Sees 90% WW3 Risk as Iran Oil Siege Escalates

The Diary Of A CEO

The American empire faces potential collapse within ten years as U.S. naval interdictions of Iranian and Russian oil shipping escalate into regional multi-front warfare.

AI-assisted summary of Professor Jiang: World War 3 Is About To Begin, Let Me Explain! — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-05-07

Detailed notes

## Background This episode was published by The Diary Of A CEO on YouTube on May 7, 2026. Featuring geopolitical analyst Professor Jiang from the 'Predictive History' channel, the interview explores why he believes World War III may have already begun through escalating conflicts involving the US, Iran, Israel, Russia, and China.

## TL;DR Professor Jiang outlines a stark geopolitical analysis predicting the inevitable downfall of the American empire within the next 5 to 10 years due to strategic overstretch, national debt, and multi-front global conflicts. He detail Iran's decentralized 'Mosaic strategy,' Israel's broader territorial ambitions, Russia's economic maneuvers, and North Korea's strategic positioning amid a shifting global order. Beyond geopolitics, the discussion transitions into philosophical and spiritual realms, examining how power structures shape human perception, the war between traditional finance and tech elites, and the ultimate importance of personal love and moral integrity during systemic collapse.

## Atmosphere & style The interview carries an intense, apocalyptic, and deeply introspective tone, striking a balance between cold geopolitical pragmatism and profound philosophical existentialism. Hosted by Steven Bartlett, the dialogue shifts from high-stakes grand strategy to intimate, raw personal reflection as Professor Jiang credits his wife's unconditional love with saving him from career despair. Listening to it feels like a urgent, sweeping journey from the brink of global catastrophe back down to the grounding essence of human connection.

## Key takeaways - [39:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2381s) Iran has implemented the 'Mosaic Strategy,' decentralizing its military into 31 regional armies to prevent U.S. decapitation strikes from disabling its defense apparatus. - [40:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2442s) Driven by an eschatological vision, Iran seeks to establish God-centric governance and displace Saudi Arabia as the undisputed leader of the Muslim world. - [40:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2442s) Professor Jiang estimates an 80% to 90% probability that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East escalates into World War III. - [42:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2538s) The four main global powers operate under distinct geopolitical models: the U.S. ('Fortress America'), Russia ('Third Rome Strategy'), Israel ('Greater Israel Project'), and Iran (Islamic unification via asymmetric warfare). - [54:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3280s) Under Operation Southern Spear, the U.S. military has begun actively interdicting and seizing tankers from Russia's shadow fleet to break its energy supply lines. - [01:15:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4553s) North Korea faces an unprecedented opening to extort South Korea, as U.S. strategic air defenses like THAAD are redeployed from South Korea to the Middle East. - [01:18:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4726s) The decline of the American empire parallels the Bronze Age Collapse, where interconnected systemic failures could lead to mass famine and massive refugee flows. - [01:25:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5101s) Global power is structured in layers ranging from U.S. military enforcement and central banking institutions (BIS, SWIFT, Fed) down to legacy media framing consensus reality. - [01:32:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5557s) A fundamental struggle over global architecture is unfolding between traditional Wall Street financial institutions and Silicon Valley technology leaders. - [01:34:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5696s) The American empire faces a high probability of collapse within the next 5 to 10 years due to excessive debt, systemic corruption, and strategic overstretch. - [01:40:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6041s) End-times theology, Kabbalistic concepts, and dialectical frameworks play a significant role in motivating geopolitical strategies in the Middle East. - [01:37:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5828s) Rather than attempting to stop macro geopolitical collapses, individuals should focus on personal moral development, local community support, and living authentically.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=0s) Overview of Predictions and the Coming War

In the opening exchange, the host highlights three bold predictions Professor Jiang made in 2024 that have since come true, including Donald Trump starting a war with Iran. Professor Jiang then introduces a dramatic series of new geopolitical predictions: Trump securing a third term through emergency war powers to delay elections, the implementation of an automatic US national military draft for young men aged 18 to 24, a rapid shift toward an "AI civilian state" tracking online behavior, and the impending collapse of the American empire driven by World War III.

After a brief channel subscription request from the host, the conversation returns to Professor Jiang's 2024 predictions. Professor Jiang re-states his original three calls: Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, the US launching a war against Iran, and the US ultimately losing that war. He argues that the United States was forced into invading Iran out of systemic necessity; without an invasion, the US empire—which he describes as a "Ponzi scheme" anchored by the petrodollar—would collapse as global actors abandon US Treasuries and dollar-denominated trade.

- **The Dollar's Neutrality Crisis:** The turning point occurred in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The American response—sanctioning Russia, removing it from SWIFT, and freezing over $200 billion in Russian assets—shattered the fundamental guarantee that the US dollar would remain a politically neutral global reserve currency. - **The Eurasian Bloc:** To bypass American economic control and naval power, Russia, China, and Iran are building an interconnected continental trading block. This includes a Eurasian railway system that circumvents US maritime patrols and utilizes gold rather than fiat currency as a medium of exchange. - **BRICS Expansion:** Countries across Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia are evaluating whether to stick with the American financial model or pivot toward the gold-backed BRICS trading system (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and expanding partners).

---

[06:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=380s) Economic Fallout and Global Energy Leverage

Professor Jiang breaks down how attacking Iran drastically reshapes the global energy landscape and strategically isolates key economies. By initiating conflict in the Middle East, China—which relies on the region for 50% to 60% of its energy needs (including imports from Qatar and Saudi Arabia)—is cut off from crucial fuel sources. Although China is a leader in renewables, its vast industrial base demands massive fossil energy supplies from every available source.

This energy shock cascades worldwide. Europe, already cut off from sanctioned Russian energy and reliant on Middle Eastern liquid natural gas (especially from Qatar), is left severely depleted. Major East Asian economies like Japan and South Korea face identical vulnerabilities. With Russian energy constrained by Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and export hubs, nations have no choice but to turn to the United States for their basic energy survival.

- **Western Hemisphere Hegemony:** Professor Jiang points out recent aggressive US actions across the Americas—taking control of Venezuela (home to the world's largest proven oil reserves) and pressuring Canada, Greenland, Mexico, and Colombia. - **The Petrodollar Rescue Plan:** By gaining absolute control over Western Hemisphere energy production while choking off Middle Eastern flows, the US forces the rest of the world to "beg Trump for energy and resources," temporarily propping up the US dollar and preserving imperial dominance.

---

[08:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=535s) Why the US Will Lose the War in Iran

When asked why he predicted an American defeat, Professor Jiang cites a fundamental lack of political will, manufacturing infrastructure, and risk tolerance within American society. The US strategy relies on fighting a quick, cheap, and easy war, operating on the flawed assumption that decapitating Iran's leadership—such as striking key figures and the Supreme Leader—would force an immediate surrender.

> "He paid no attention to the culture. He paid no attention to the history of the Iranian people. He had absolutely no respect for the nation. And when you do that... you're going to lose."

Professor Jiang criticizes Trump's reliance on "reality TV optics" over deep geopolitical strategy. He argues that Trump viewed Iran through the lens of recent operations—such as the January 3 Delta Force operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro and led to a rapid capitulation—without understanding Iran's deep institutional and cultural differences. Furthermore, Professor Jiang characterises the modern US military as an insular, commercially driven institution focused primarily on generating funding for the military-industrial complex rather than executing long-term total warfare.

---

[11:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=708s) Topography as a Fortress: Iraq vs. Iran

Moving to a physical map of the Middle East, Professor Jiang contrasts the 2003 invasion of Iraq with the present conflict in Iran, emphasizing that geographical topography determines military strategy. In 2003, the US executed its "shock and awe" campaign in Iraq, capturing Baghdad within two weeks. Iraq's flat, open desert terrain allowed air power to swiftly destroy command centers and achieve a rapid decapitation strike.

In stark contrast, Iran's geography functions as a natural mountain fortress. This terrain makes it impossible for air strikes alone to force a collapse, enabling Iranian forces to wage an asymmetric war of attrition—a strategic "game of uncle."

- **War of Attrition:** Because the US and Israel cannot easily conquer a mountainous nation of 92 million people, they resort to heavy bombardment to force a surrender. Conversely, Iran uses its geography to absorb strikes and inflict severe leverage-point damage elsewhere. - **Underground Missile Bases:** Iran hides its missile arsenals and command centers deep inside mountain networks, allowing its forces to continually strike American bases and regional energy infrastructure.

---

[15:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=953s) The Strait of Hormuz and Global Supply Bottlenecks

Professor Jiang highlights a critical economic vulnerability that US strategists underestimated: the Strait of Hormuz. Measuring only 33 kilometers across at its narrowest point, this narrow waterway serves as the single most critical choke point for global trade.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, and Iran—export roughly 20% of the world's energy through the Strait, alongside vital agricultural inputs like chemical fertilizers bound for India and East Asia. In return, GCC nations rely on these maritime routes to import 89% of their food requirements to sustain their rapidly growing populations.

- **Desalination and Food Security:** GCC states depend heavily on coastal electrochemical desalination plants for drinking water and agriculture, leaving their populations uniquely vulnerable to localized missile and drone strikes. - **Maritime Insurance Shutdown:** Iran does not need to physically block the Strait of Hormuz with warships to halt traffic. By simply threatening attacks, commercial shipping loses access to maritime insurance, effectively grounding global trade through the passage. - **The National Defense Strategy:** Responding to claims that Trump was merely hot-headed or misled by Israeli intelligence, Professor Jiang introduces the official US *National Defense Strategy* document (published by the Department of War) to demonstrate that choking global trade lines was a deliberate, documented strategy.

[19:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1186s) The National Defense Strategy: A Four-Point Plan for Imperial Hegemony

Professor Jiang unpacks the official rationale behind current U.S. foreign policy by examining the National Defense Strategy document, which is publicly available on the Department of War website. The document frames global affairs around the narrative that America has been "bullied by the world" for far too long. While the U.S. acts as a global protector, allies in Europe and East Asia allegedly exploit American generosity—with Europeans reallocating defense savings into generous domestic welfare and pension systems, and China engaging in unfair trade practices, technology theft, and selling manufactured goods back to American consumers. To rectify this decades-long arrangement, President Donald Trump's strategy outlines a core four-point program to restore American power and put "America First."

``` National Defense Strategy Framework ├── 1. Secure Western Hemisphere ("Don Monroe Doctrine") ├── 2. Restructure Global Coalitions (Offload Regional Defense to Allies) ├── 3. Contain & Blockade China (Strait of Malacca Economic Strangulation) └── 4. Reindustrialize Defense Base (Pivot Consumer Manufacturing to Munitions) ```

The four distinct pillars of this strategic framework establish a aggressive blueprint for global control:

* **Securing the Western Hemisphere:** Reasserting total control over the entire Western Hemisphere—encompassing Canada, Greenland, Mexico, and South America—under what Jiang coins the "Don Monroe Doctrine" (Trump's expansion of the historic Monroe Doctrine). Under this framework, foreign powers cannot trade within the hemisphere without U.S. permission or paying tribute, backed by one-third of the U.S. naval fleet currently deployed in the Caribbean. * **Reimagining Alliance Relationships:** Shifting the burden of direct regional defense onto allies. NATO members are expected to shoulder the ground fight against Russia in Ukraine with the U.S. acting primarily as a weapons supplier and financier, while Asian allies like South Korea and Japan are forced to take the lead in checking Chinese expansion. * **Economically Strangling China:** Confronting China not through outright destruction or humiliation, but by establishing economic dominance over vital maritime trade routes. By leveraging the "First Island Chain" (stretching from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan down to the Philippines and Malaysia) and deploying aircraft carriers to choke points like the Strait of Malacca, the U.S. can cut off up to 90% of China's energy imports and force trade to pay transit tolls. * **Supercharging the Defense Industrial Base:** Revitalizing domestic arms manufacturing by converting commercial industrial capacity into defense production. Pentagon officials explicitly met with major automakers like Ford and General Motors in Detroit, directing them to prepare assembly lines to pivot from civilian vehicles to munitions and military drones.

- "For too long, America has been bullied by the world. America is a nation that protects the world, yet Europe, East Asia takes advantage of American generosity." - "If you're like Ford or General Motors, the best deal in the world is to go make weapons for the Pentagon to fight these wars in the East that could go on forever." - The strategy seeks to absorb $42 trillion in U.S. national debt by forcing global trade and defense consumption into American financial and industrial channels.

---

[26:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1575s) Trump's Strategy and the Looming Ground Invasion Mirage

Addressing popular critiques that frame the administration's actions as chaotic, Professor Jiang argues that when evaluated against the strategic map, current U.S. maneuvers are calculated steps to construct a "Fortress America." Recent aggressive actions and public statements regarding Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Nicaragua, and Honduras fit into a cohesive effort to lock down the Western Hemisphere. Simultaneously, by encouraging proxy conflicts across three distinct theaters—NATO against Russia in Europe, China against East Asian neighbors, and Iran against Israel and GCC nations in the Middle East—the U.S. aims to weaken all foreign competitors while selling arms and financing to every side, mirroring the economic dynamics of the World War II era.

Despite early tactical successes, Jiang maintains his bold prediction that the U.S. will ultimately lose the conflict in Iran. In his framework, "losing" is defined not as an immediate military defeat on paper, but as getting dragged into a prolonged, costly ground invasion. When Iranian forces resist and survive the ground assault, the resulting domestic political backlash and internal chaos will eventually force a humiliating American military retreat from the entire Middle East.

``` Iranian Escalation Dynamics ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Phase 1: U.S. Decapitation Strikes ("Shock & Awe") │ └───────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────┘ │ ▼ ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Phase 2: Iranian Escalation & Hormuz Closure │ └───────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────┘ │ ▼ ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Phase 3: Double Naval Blockade & Strategic Strikeback │ └────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ```

The evolution of the conflict has already passed through distinct phases, making ground troop insertion an unavoidable trap:

* **Phase 1 (Decapitation Attempt):** Initiated on February 28th and lasting roughly six weeks, featuring widespread "shock and awe" strikes against Tehran and key military installations designed to force the Iranian government to surrender. * **Phase 2 (Iranian Retaliation):** Iran refused to yield, doubling down by launching retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, and mobilizing its civilian population. * **Phase 3 (Naval Blockade Counter-Strategy):** Recognizing that decapitation strikes failed, the U.S. initiated a naval blockade to counter Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran had begun extracting $2 million tolls from passing commercial ships to fund its war effort.

- "Losing a war means that America would send ground troops, Iran would survive the ground invasion, and this would be so politically damaging that chaos breaks out in the United States." - "Trump recognizes that the Iranians can close off the Strait of Hormuz, but not only that... they're forcing ships to pay a toll, about $2 million, in order to cross."

---

[31:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1885s) The Game Theory of Escalation: Blockades, Ethnic Fractures, and Siege Tactics

Applying game theory—the model that nation-states operate as rational actors making calculated decisions based on rules, incentives, and self-interest—Professor Jiang outlines the three-point strategy the U.S. military must deploy to try to force Iran into capitulation. Because air power alone cannot secure victory, the U.S. is driven toward actions that push the conflict deeper into ground operations and internal destabilization.

``` U.S. Escalation Blueprint ├── 1. Economic Strangulation (Blockade Kharg Island & Hormuz Tolls) ├── 2. Internal Subversion (Arm Minority Insurgencies via Forward Operating Bases) └── 3. Siege of Tehran (Cut Off Water, Power, and Food to 10M Residents) ```

The key elements of this strategic pressure campaign include:

* **Economic Strangulation:** Sealing off Iran's financial lifelines by blockading Kharg Island—the strategic export hub responsible for handling 90% of Iran's oil exports (primarily bound for China)—and neutralizing Iran's ability to collect maritime transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz. * **Stoking Internal Ethnic Insurgency:** Exploiting geographic and demographic vulnerabilities inside Iran. While ethnic Persians populate the central core, the borderlands are home to historically rebellious minority populations. The strategy calls for establishing Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) in the southeast among the **Baluchis** (along the Pakistani border) and in the northwest among the **Kurds**. By inserting ground troops to arm, train, and fund these groups, the U.S. aims to turn minority insurgents into "cannon fodder," forcing hidden Iranian military units out of their mountain strongholds and into open terrain where American air power can decimate them. * **Besieging the Capital:** Applying pressure directly on Tehran, a metropolis of 10 million people. By systematically targeting reservoirs, power grids, and rail infrastructure bringing food into the capital, the U.S. seeks to deny residents basic necessities—water, electricity, and food—triggering massive internal civil unrest that forces political leaders to sue for peace.

- "You basically destroy the state's capacity to finance the war... Kharg Island, this little spot here, is where Iran will export 90% of its oil overseas." - "Your strategy is to establish forward operating bases in these areas in order to arm and train ethnic insurgents... to turn them into cannon fodder and force a response from the Iranian military."

---

[36:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2170s) The Dual State and the Mosaic Strategy: Why Peace Is an Illusion

Professor Jiang highlights a fundamental misunderstanding in Western analysis regarding Iran's political and military structure. The Iranian state operates under a dual system: a secular administrative bureaucracy handling day-to-day governance, and a parallel religious theocracy led by Islamic clerics (the mullahs). This dual political structure translates directly into a bifurcated military apparatus consisting of the regular armed forces alongside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

``` Iranian Political & Military Architecture ┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Theocratic Mullahs │ └────────────────────┬────────────────────┘ │ Controls ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ • Motivated by religious crusade │ │ • Commands regional "Axis of Resistance"│ │ • Executes decentralized "Mosaic Plan" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Secular Bureaucracy │ └────────────────────┬────────────────────┘ │ Operates ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Regular Iranian Military │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ • Handles day-to-day administration │ │ • Seeks conventional diplomacy/peace │ └─────────────────────────────────────────┘ ```

This structural division renders diplomatic ceasefire negotiations largely symbolic:

* **Ideological Divide:** While secular political leaders in Tehran view the conflict as a conventional confrontation subject to diplomatic negotiation, the IRGC views it as a global religious crusade against the "Great Satan" (the U.S. Empire). The IRGC operates a network of regional proxies—including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Palestine (with Syria previously serving as a key partner before its government was destabilized). * **The Mosaic Strategy:** Designed specifically to counter American surveillance dominance and "shock and awe" decapitation tactics, the IRGC implemented a decentralized doctrine dividing Iran into 31 autonomous provincial commands. * **Decentralized Resistance:** Each of the 31 provinces maintains its own independent command, control, and leadership structure. Even if U.S. forces successfully eliminate central leadership in Tehran, 31 separate, self-sustaining military units will continue fighting locally, guaranteeing a prolonged and exhausting war of attrition.

- "The IRGC see this as a religious war, as a crusade to kill the Great Satan and they want to fight to the death." - "Ceasefire negotiations, it's really all for show... even if the Americans gave the Iranians everything they wanted, the IRGC still controls the battlefield." - "How do you respond to decapitation? You respond to that using decentralization—31 provinces in the country with their own localized command and control."

Here is a detailed, faithful walkthrough of the transcript segment.

---

[39:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2381s) Decentralized Leadership and Iran's "Mosaic Strategy"

To prevent the United States from neutralizing its command structure, Iran has intentionally decentralized its leadership across the entire nation. The central government orchestrates 31 distinct regional armies. When asked how a central authority sends directives to these spread-out forces, a recent comment by Peter Hegseth is highlighted. During an interview regarding a temporary ceasefire where missiles were still actively being launched, Hegseth casually remarked that "it takes some time for the pigeons to get out to the armies," referencing the delay in communicating orders down the chain of command.

However, under Iran's overarching "Mosaic strategy," there is practically no functional way to centralize or coordinate these 31 independent military operations once set in motion. The strategic objective assigned to these units—and the Mojahedin—is to fight to the bitter end. They are instructed not to halt operations until they achieve full control of the region, the Americans are permanently driven out of the Middle East, and Israel is humbled.

- **Key Strategic Mechanics**: 31 independent regional armies operating across Iran under a decentralized framework. - **Underlying Mission**: Fight continuously until U.S. forces are expelled from the Middle East and Israel's power is broken.

---

[40:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2442s) Iranian Eschatology and the Struggle for the Muslim World

The driving force behind Iran's military resolve is rooted in its specific eschatology—its theological vision of how the global order ought to be structured and how history moves toward that end. From the Iranian leadership's perspective, for Iran to fulfill its ultimate potential, it must establish itself as the rightful leader and master of the Muslim world.

This vision requires displacing Saudi Arabia, which Iran views as entirely compromised by its close alignment with the United States—referred to in Iranian political rhetoric as the "Great Satan." The presence of American military bases in Saudi Arabia is seen as a desecration, placing the holy cities of Mecca and Medina under foreign, imperial influence. Consequently, Iranian leadership views the unfolding conflict not merely as a defensive war, but as a historic opportunity to overthrow the ruling structures of Saudi Arabia and the entire Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), replacing them with governments that prioritize God and Islam above all else. Because this is viewed as a fundamental religious duty, Iran will not surrender, locking the region into an escalating confrontation that carries an 80% to 90% probability of expanding into World War III.

- **Core Theological Goal**: Displace Saudi Arabia as the custodian of the Islamic world and purge Western influence from Mecca and Medina. - **Broader Target**: Overthrow the existing leadership of the GCC and establish God-centric governance across the region. - **War Probability**: Estimated at an 80% to 90% likelihood of escalating into a full-scale global war.

---

[42:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2538s) The Global Grand Strategies: USA vs. Russia vs. Israel vs. Iran

To illustrate how this regional flashpoint triggers a global war, the grand strategies and internal structures of four major global actors—the United States, Russia, Israel, and Iran—can be modeled using pieces on a chessboard:

#### The United States - **System (King)**: A vibrant, creative democracy. Its fatal flaw is deep political polarization between factions (Democrats and Republicans), which rivals can exploit to spark internal civil conflict rather than attempting a direct military conquest. - **Grand Strategy (Queen)**: "Fortress America." Establish a protected homeland while fostering controlled chaos abroad to make other nations dependent on U.S. weapons, energy, and resources. - **Attack Vectors (Rook, Bishop, Knight)**: 1. Technological and Air Supremacy (advanced fighters, precision strike assets). 2. The U.S. Dollar (the foundation of global financial power). 3. Narrative & Propaganda Control (dominant global media outlets like *The New York Times* and CNN). - **Pawns**: Frontline allies that can be strategically leveraged or sacrificed, including the UK, European nations, South Korea, Japan, and partners across the Western Hemisphere.

#### Russia - **System (King)**: An autocracy centered around a single decisive leader. It excels at swift coordination and long-term planning, but its primary vulnerability is a succession crisis if the leader is removed. - **Grand Strategy (Queen)**: The "Third Rome Strategy," heavily influenced by philosopher Aleksandr Dugin's 1997 work, *Foundations of Geopolitics*. It positions Moscow as the successor to Rome and Constantinople, seeking to unite Eurasia to counter American naval and air dominance. - **Attack Vectors**: Massive geographical depth (making physical invasion virtually impossible), the unifying force of the Orthodox Church, and dominant land artillery/drone capabilities. - **Pawns**: High-resilience military personnel willing to endure extreme casualty rates.

#### Israel - **System (King)**: A hybrid democracy and theocracy, limited by internal political and cultural rifts between secular hubs like Tel Aviv and religious centers like Jerusalem. - **Grand Strategy (Queen)**: The "Greater Israel Project," aiming to expand influence from the Nile to the Euphrates based on biblical mandates. - **Attack Vectors**: Mossad's global intelligence capabilities, influential diaspora business networks, and political backing from Christian Zionists in the United States.

#### Iran - **System (King)**: A religious theocracy where committed fighters do not fear death. Its internal vulnerability is the potential backlash from a domestic population that desires economic stability over rule by religious zealots. - **Grand Strategy (Queen)**: Lead and unify the Islamic world. - **Attack Vectors**: Regional proxy forces (Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis), asymmetric missile and drone capabilities designed for economic disruption, and an nearly impenetrable mountainous topography.

---

[54:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3280s) Energy Blockades and the Escalating Tanker War

The global chessboard is shifting as the U.S. leverages its maritime power to control key economic chokepoints—including the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Panama Canal, Greenland, and the Strait of Gibraltar. By controlling maritime trade and targeting global energy infrastructure, the U.S. aims to deplete global oil reserves, forcing foreign economies to rely on American-controlled energy supplies from sources like Canada, Mexico, or Venezuela.

In response, Russia relies on a "shadow fleet" of roughly 1,000 unsanctioned tankers to bypass trade restrictions and move energy markets. Because building land-based Eurasian railways and pipelines leaves supply lines vulnerable to air strikes, Russia is forced to arm its shadow fleet. This sets up direct naval confrontations between Russian shadow tankers and American destroyers enforcing blockades.

This conflict is already underway. Under "Operation Southern Spear," the U.S. military and Coast Guard have intercepted and seized dark-fleet oil tankers in the Caribbean and North Atlantic—including high-profile seizures on January 7, 2026—marking a direct physical escalation over global energy lines.

- **Critical Maritime Chokepoints**: Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, Panama Canal, Strait of Gibraltar, and routes around Greenland. - **Russian Shadow Fleet**: Approximately 1,000 covert tankers operating globally to evade Western sanctions. - **Enforcement Actions**: U.S. interdictions under Operation Southern Spear targeting dark-fleet oil shipments tied to sanctioned regimes.

[59:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3544s) Maritime Chokepoints and the Escalation to Global War

The conversation picks up with recent operations targeting shadow fleet tankers violating U.S. sanctions by transporting crude oil linked to Venezuela, Iran, and Hezbollah. While these vessels do not fly a primary national flag directly, they are essentially serving Russian interests to ship energy outside American financial oversight. Professor Jiang outlines how the United States is systematically expanding its global maritime control. Rather than relying solely on unilateral interdictions, Washington is building legal frameworks and military agreements with key coastal states commanding critical maritime bottlenecks—signing military cooperation agreements with Indonesia to monitor the Strait of Malacca and with Morocco regarding the Strait of Gibraltar.

This bid to control global maritime chokepoints creates a direct collision course with Russia's economic lifeline. While host Steven Bartlett questions what specific spark will detonate a full-scale clash between U.S. and Russian forces, Professor Jiang argues that there won't necessarily be a single isolated "flashpoint." Instead, the world is experiencing a drawn-out, compounding escalation where shadow fleet seizures coincide with Ukrainian drone strikes destroying Russian oil infrastructure—sabotage Moscow firmly attributes to NATO coordination. Professor Jiang asserts that World War III has effectively already begun; the structural friction between competing world orders makes an expanding global confrontation functionally inevitable.

- **Key Maritime Chokepoints:** Strait of Malacca (Indonesia alliance) and Strait of Gibraltar (Morocco agreement). - **Economic Warfare:** Interdiction of non-compliant "shadow fleet" oil shipping alongside drone sabotage of inland Russian refineries. - **Core Premise:** World War III should not be viewed as a future event with a distinct starting gun, but as an ongoing multi-theater escalation that is already active.

---

[01:01:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3663s) Russia’s Moral Imperative and Entry Into the Iran Conflict

Professor Jiang predicts that Russia will inevitably enter the war directly on Iran's side, driven by both ideological grand strategy and existential security requirements. Moscow frames its geopolitical struggle not merely as economic or territorial, but as a civilizational war between the spiritual world—representing tradition, family, and community—and a materialist, hedonistic order led by the United States. Having established this moral narrative, the Kremlin faces a narrative and strategic imperative to aid Tehran in its hour of need.

This ideological alignment is actively converting into diplomatic and military reality. Professor Jiang points to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Moscow, where Vladimir Putin personally received him and publicly expressed the Russian people's admiration for Iran’s resolve against American pressure. This meeting signals that Russia has "entered the chat" and will incrementally step up direct support as the conflict deepens.

> "We, the Russian people, admire your determination, your resolve against the Americans." — *Vladimir Putin (as quoted by Professor Jiang)*

---

[01:02:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3733s) Countering the American Plan: The Tripartite Axis

Examining the strategic map, Professor Jiang details America's three-pronged strategy to collapse Iran: 1. Ground forces establishing forward operating bases while stoking internal ethnic division. 2. Maritime blockades cutting off maritime exports and global financial access. 3. Systemic infrastructure collapse (targeting food, water, and power grids) to incite an internal uprising against the government.

While the United States would easily achieve victory under isolated conditions, direct Russian and Chinese intervention completely alters the equation. To defeat the U.S. strategy, Moscow and Beijing can deploy three specific countermeasures:

``` ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ TRIPARTITE COUNTER-STRATEGY │ ├──────────────────────────┬─────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ Caspian Sea & BRI Supply │ Russian shipments across the Caspian Sea │ │ Lines │ plus Chinese rail networks neutralize US │ │ │ blockade of food, water, and energy. │ ├──────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ Sovereign Financial │ Moscow and Beijing back Iranian credit, │ │ Backstop │ using raw natural resources as collateral │ │ │ to fund a long war of attrition. │ ├──────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ Russian Nuclear │ Extended deterrence eliminates America's │ │ Umbrella │ option to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. │ └──────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ```

By securing Tehran through Eurasian land routes, the conflict shifts from a swift American intervention into a long-term global war of attrition. To counter this Eurasian bloc, Washington would ultimately be forced to widen the theater of war globally in an effort to destabilize the regime in Moscow itself.

- **Strategic Geography:** The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) through Iran gives Russia access to the Indian Ocean and Africa, while China's Belt and Road Initiative relies on Iranian territory as a overland bridge. - **Eurasian Trade Integration:** Neutralizing Iran effectively severs the land lines connecting Russia, China, and Middle Eastern markets, making Iran the indispensable anchor of the non-Western economic bloc.

---

[01:08:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4103s) The Midterm Fallacy and Strategic Continuity

Addressing the timeline of this expanding conflict, Steven Bartlett highlights a potential constraint: Donald Trump’s finite time in office, noting that adversaries might attempt to delay major moves until a new administration takes over. Professor Jiang counters that Iranian leaders holding this view are operating under a dangerous misconception. Tehran hopes the November midterm elections will return control to the Democrats, leading to impeachment proceedings or legislative constraints that limit the White House's war-making powers.

Professor Jiang explains that American grand strategy operates on structural continuity rather than electoral cycles. Just as the Biden administration codified and expanded the aggressive anti-China trade policies initiated during Trump's first term, future administrations will institutionalize the aggressive containment frameworks set by the National Defense Strategy. The overarching apparatus of state power ensures that World War III remains a multi-decade war of attrition regardless of shifts in party control.

- **Tehran's Calculation:** Waiting out the current White House team in anticipation of domestic political gridlock or midterm losses. - **Institutionalization Mechanism:** Historical precedent demonstrates that foreign policy escalations pioneered by one administration become permanently codified by the next.

---

[01:10:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4220s) Prediction: The Mechanisms for a Trump Third Term

Turning to a sealed box of new predictions, Professor Jiang reveals his most controversial claim: Donald Trump will secure a third presidential term. Responding to Bartlett's immediate objection that a third term violates the 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, Jiang breaks down two specific legal and political mechanisms through which this could occur:

1. **The Electoral Loophole:** In 2028, Donald Trump Jr. (or another ultra-loyal figure like Jared Kushner) runs for president with Donald Trump Sr. as the vice-presidential running mate. Upon taking office, the newly elected president abdicates, elevating Trump back to the presidency. Jiang notes that while politically radical, the constitutional text does not explicitly forbid this succession route. 2. **Emergency War Powers:** By 2028, heightened global conflict, a reinstated national draft, and widespread martial provisions could allow the executive branch to claim emergency war powers, suspending constitutional elections similar to actions taken by Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ukraine.

Beyond the legal mechanics, Professor Jiang points to Trump's personal psychology. Describing him as an individual addicted to public attention who routinely maintains an exhausting campaign schedule on a diet of fast food, Jiang argues that for a personality of this nature, "death is to be ignored." In Trump's mind, he genuinely believes the 2020 election was stolen via mail-in ballots and voting machines; he views a third term not as an extra period, but as rightful compensation owed to him by the American public.

> "This is a man who is addicted to attention... For him, death is to be ignored. So, given his personality, he would rather die in office than live peacefully somewhere else." — *Professor Jiang*

- **Controversial Claim:** Donald Trump will serve a third term as President of the United States. - **Succession Strategy:** Running as Vice President on a ticket headed by a family member or ultra-loyalist who subsequently abdicates. - **Statutory Alternative:** Invoking emergency war powers during an active global draft to delay national elections.

Here is a detailed, faithful walkthrough of this part of the conversation between host Steven Bartlett and geopolitical analyst Professor Jiang.

---

[01:15:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4554s) Legal Debates Over a Potential Third Trump Term

Steven Bartlett questions the legal feasibility of Donald Trump serving a third presidential term, referencing the 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which explicitly states that no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice. Bartlett notes that while some legal theorists argue a loop-hole exists—suggesting someone could serve a third term if they were *appointed* or succeeded to the role (for example, by serving as Vice President first)—most legal scholars and the judicial community reject this idea. This rejection stems from the 12th Amendment, which dictates that anyone serving as Vice President must be eligible for the presidency. Since a two-term president cannot be elected again, they would be legally barred from serving as Vice President.

Professor Jiang pushes back, arguing that there is no explicit language directly forbidding someone from running as Vice President, leaving room for legal debate around the "spirit" of the 22nd Amendment rather than its literal text. He emphasizes that if this challenge arises, the decision ultimately rests with the U.S. Supreme Court. Jiang points out that the Supreme Court currently holds a conservative majority, with three of the nine justices appointed by Trump himself and the potential for a fourth appointment later in the year. Consequently, Jiang asserts that whether Trump can pursue or hold power again is entirely in the hands of the conservative-controlled court.

- **22nd Amendment:** Limits individuals to two elected presidential terms. - **12th Amendment argument:** Requires Vice Presidents to meet presidential eligibility standards, theoretically barring two-term presidents. - **Supreme Court makeup:** Currently conservative-dominated; three justices were appointed by Trump, with a potential fourth opening expected later in the year.

---

[01:17:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4639s) A "Grand Bargain" Between the United States and China

Moving on to his second prediction, Professor Jiang forecasts a "grand bargain" between the United States and China, running counter to the popular narrative that the two superpowers are inevitably headed toward war over Taiwan. While many analysts expect China to challenge U.S. hegemony and try to replace America as the global leader, Jiang claims China has no interest in doing so. Taking on global hegemony requires investing immense resources into foreign wars that ultimately bankrupt nations—a burden China wants to avoid. Instead, China's strategy is to "triangulate" between Russia and the United States, drawing parallels to the Cold War when China was part of the non-aligned movement rather than a true Soviet ally.

Jiang predicts that while China may offer financing to Russia or aid Iran during World War III, it will simultaneously forge economic deals with Washington. He projects that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet three or four times in the current year, starting with a mid-May summit in Beijing. In this arrangement, the U.S. gets China to continue purchasing U.S. Treasuries to support American debt, while China secures access to American consumer markets and energy resources from the Western Hemisphere. Jiang describes Trump as a purely "transactional character" who will embrace this deal, meaning China will remain friendly with both Moscow and Washington while letting those two powers fight each other.

> "China's probably happy with America being the world's hegemon, because you have to invest so much of your resources into fighting these wars that bankrupt your nation."

- **Planned Summit:** Predicts 3–4 meetings between Trump and Xi Jinping during the year, beginning in mid-May in Beijing. - **U.S. Goal:** Secure Chinese purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds to finance national debt. - **China's Goal:** Secure Western Hemisphere energy supplies and maintain access to U.S. consumer markets.

---

[01:19:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4783s) A Forever War in Iran and the Return of the U.S. Draft

In his next prediction, Professor Jiang states that the conflict with Iran will turn into a multi-decade "forever war" and force the United States to institute a national military draft. He argues that defeating Iran is not actually part of America's grand strategy; rather, Iran serves as a perfect pretext for the U.S. to expand globally, control vital maritime choke points, and force other nations to buy American energy. Because keeping this geopolitical strategy alive requires massive numbers of ground troops over 10 to 20 years, a draft becomes unavoidable.

Addressing how this would impact American citizens, Jiang explains that starting in December, military draft registration will become automatic for all young men between the ages of 18 and 24 (or 25). Although the Selective Service System has existed for decades, compliance was previously passive; under new legislation, eligible males will automatically be entered into a military draft lottery database. While acknowledging that Congress must formally declare war before a active conscription call-up can occur, Jiang insists the structural framework for a draft is already locked in place and will provoke significant societal reaction reminiscent of the Vietnam War era.

- **War Horizon:** Predicted to last 10 to 20 years or more without stopping, functioning similarly to Afghanistan. - **Target Demographic:** Males aged 18 to 24 (or 25). - **Automation Timeline:** Automatic registration in the draft system slated to begin in December.

---

[01:22:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4940s) The Rise of the Global AI Surveillance State

Jiang warns that the world is rapidly moving toward an AI-driven surveillance state—a trend he considers obvious given that major technology firms like OpenAI and Anthropic are signing contracts for military and government surveillance projects. For the average citizen, this transformation will be enforced through two primary mechanisms: mandatory digital identification and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Together, these tools will allow governments to monitor all online activity and tightly control personal financial transactions.

To illustrate how this system operates, Jiang draws directly from his experience living in China, where digital IDs are already mandatory to open bank accounts, make electronic payments, or register a mobile phone. He explains that by tracking every purchase and message, governments can map individual habits, predict behavior, and engineer social incentives—framing it under the guise of "progress" by claiming to help citizens lose weight, work harder, or avoid drugs. When Bartlett asks if Jiang risks getting into trouble by criticizing the system, Jiang admits he operates in a specific "gray area": he works exclusively in English for Western audiences, avoids Chinese social media, and deliberately keeps a low profile inside China so the government has no reason to target or control him.

> "They think this is progress, by the way. This is progress because I'm making you a better person, right? I'm helping you achieve your dream. I'm helping you lose weight. I'm helping you avoid drugs."

- **Core Control Mechanisms:** Digital IDs and Programmable Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). - **Data Capabilities:** Real-time tracking of online messaging, browsing, and financial purchases to build predictive behavioral profiles. - **Personal Strategy:** Operates exclusively in English for foreign media to stay off the radar of Chinese domestic censors.

---

[01:25:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5144s) Israel's Pursuit of the "Greater Israel" Expansion

Turning to the Middle East, Professor Jiang predicts that Israel will achieve the "Greater Israel" project by expanding its territorial dominance across the region. He argues that Israel has already effectively conquered its immediate surroundings and that the only force holding it back is the presence of the U.S. military. Once Washington eventually pulls out of the region, Israel will absorb CENTCOM infrastructure—the network of U.S. military bases in the Middle East—and eliminate all remaining regional opposition.

Jiang asserts that Israel is intentionally dragging out the war with Iran to systematically destroy its strategic rivals. With Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) already economically or politically destabilized by the fighting, Jiang identifies Turkey as Israel's final major opponent. Once Turkey is drawn into the conflict, Israel will fulfill its territorial ambitions. He details the geographical scope of the "Greater Israel" vision, explaining that it stretches from the Nile River in Egypt to the Euphrates River in Iraq.

- **Geographic Extent:** Stretches from the Nile (Egypt) to the Euphrates (Iraq), encompassing parts of Turkey, all of Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan, plus parts of Saudi Arabia including Mecca and Medina. - **Next Target:** Identifies Turkey as the final power standing in the way after Iran and the GCC are neutralized. - **Trigger Event:** The eventual withdrawal of U.S. military forces and the takeover of CENTCOM infrastructure by Israel.

---

[01:27:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5255s) The Battle for Odessa and Control of the Black Sea

Addressing the war in Eastern Europe, Professor Jiang predicts that NATO and Russia will ultimately engage in a decisive battle over the Ukrainian port city of Odesa. He explains that while Russia is currently focused on securing the Donbas—Ukraine's industrial and agricultural heartland where much of the population is ethnically Russian—Western Ukraine on its own would simply become a non-viable "rump state." The true strategic prize of the war is Odesa, located on the Black Sea.

Controlling Odesa would allow Russia to completely cut Ukraine off from maritime trade and secure total dominance over the Black Sea. Jiang points out that controlling this region gives Russia leverage over roughly one-third of the world's carbohydrate and grain supply. Because countries across Africa and the Middle East rely heavily on grain and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine, controlling Odesa gives Moscow the ability to weaponize global food supplies. NATO recognizes that if Odesa falls, Russia will have achieved all its major war objectives, effectively ending the war on Moscow's terms.

- **Strategic Value:** Odesa serves as Ukraine's primary deep-water access point to the Black Sea and global shipping routes. - **Global Food Supply:** Regional grain exports account for roughly 33% (one-third) of the world's carbohydrate supply. - **Impact on Developing Nations:** Gives Russia strategic leverage over food security in Africa and the Middle East.

---

[01:29:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5383s) Three Asian Flashpoints: Taiwan, Malacca, and North Korea

In his final set of predictions, Professor Jiang outlines three major friction points in East Asia that risk erupting into military conflict. The first is Taiwan, where China's unification goals clash directly with Japan's vital national interests. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has explicitly declared Taiwan core to Japan's survival. As a resource-poor manufacturing nation, Japan relies on open sea lanes; if Beijing takes Taiwan, China could blockade Japan's access to energy and raw materials passing through the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, leaving Tokyo no choice but to fight.

The second flashpoint is the Strait of Malacca itself, where the U.S. seeks maritime control while China views the choke point as essential to its economic survival. However, Jiang identifies North Korea as the third, most surprising, and most pressing flashpoint. Using game theory, he asks the audience to consider the perspective of North Korea's supreme leader: running a totalitarian dictatorship with an absolute cult of personality, but governing a impoverished nation desperate to change the status quo.

- **Flashpoint 1 (Taiwan):** Conflict driven by Japanese national survival concerns over sea routes and South China Sea resources. - **Flashpoint 2 (Strait of Malacca):** Strategic choke point contested between the U.S. Navy and the Chinese military. - **Flashpoint 3 (North Korea):** Highlighted as the most volatile and urgent flashpoint in East Asia using game-theory analysis.

---

[01:32:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5573s) North Korea’s Strategic Opportunity to Extort South Korea

With major global powers distracted by escalating conflicts—Europe locked in war with Russia, the Middle East in flames, the U.S. spread thin trying to manage global stability, and Japan and China clashing over the South China Sea—North Korea faces an unprecedented opening. Professor Jiang describes Kim Jong Un's regime as the "brawler in high school that no one pays attention to because all the big boys are fighting each other." In this geopolitical void, North Korea can step in to dominate the Korean Peninsula without fear of effective intervention.

The target of this potential aggression is South Korea, whose population is heavily concentrated in Seoul. Located roughly 20 minutes away from North Korean conventional artillery positions, Seoul is extremely vulnerable. Within minutes, North Korea could rain down mass artillery and flatten the capital. The U.S. military has been actively cannibalizing its air defense assets in South Korea and Japan—including transferring THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) systems to the Middle East—leaving South Korea exposed. Rather than engaging in a full-scale invasion, Professor Jiang predicts North Korea will use this leverage for outright extortion.

Despite South Korea's advanced military and wealthy economy, its democratic, rights-focused society makes it averse to total destruction. In contrast, North Korea's impoverished population is forced to fight to the death—a dynamic demonstrated by the thousands of North Korean troops sent to fight for Russia in Ukraine under threat of family execution back home. Consequently, South Korea would likely choose to pay massive bribes to Pyongyang to prevent an artillery catastrophe rather than risk an all-out war.

- **Geopolitical Distractions:** Global focus is split between the U.S. involvement in the Middle East, the Russo-Ukrainian war, and South China Sea tensions. - **Seoul's Vulnerability:** Located within 20 minutes of North Korean artillery range. - **Defensive Drain:** Strategic U.S. missile defense assets like THAAD have been redeployed from South Korea to the Middle East. - **Asymmetric Motivation:** South Korean wealth and democratic values create high risk-averse leverage compared to North Korea's totalitarian state control.

[01:35:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5746s) Leadership, Empire Collapse, and the Bronze Age Collapse Analogy

Addressing what this chaotic geopolitical landscape means for average people, Professor Jiang stresses that the future will require community-level leaders, entrepreneurs, visionaries, and "prophets" who can instill hope and foster collective survival. When global order breaks down, formal infrastructure inevitably collapses with it. Rather than relying on central governments during blackouts or resource shortages, survival will depend on neighbors knocking on doors, organizing meetings, and solving basic problems—such as securing clean water—together as a tight-knit unit.

Professor Jiang explicitly states that the American empire is collapsing, creating a void that no single global power can fill. To explain the current trajectory, he draws a direct historical parallel to the **Bronze Age Collapse** over 3,000 years ago. During that period, flourishing civilizations—including Mycenaean Greece, the Hittite Empire in Anatolia (modern-day Turkey), Mesopotamia, and New Kingdom Egypt—suffered a sudden, catastrophic, and simultaneous breakdown.

``` Bronze Age Crisis Factors (3,000+ Years Ago) ├── Environmental & Seismic Calamities (Earthquakes, Climate Crisis, Famines) ├── Societal Ruptures (Wars, Civil Wars, Revolutions) └── Mass Displacement ("Sea Peoples" / Pirate Armies Sweeping the Middle East) ```

The primary threat of the coming era will not just be conventional interstate wars, but massive waves of millions of displaced refugees fleeing famine and state collapse from Africa, the Middle East, and South America. Citing an episode featuring economist Steve Keen, Professor Jiang points out that global agriculture relies fundamentally on synthetic fertilizers; without them, the Earth can sustain at most 2 billion people out of its 8 billion population. Advanced technology like AI and robotics cannot solve this fundamental biological constraint, as synthetic fertilizer is essential for crop yields regardless of automated labor.

- **Historical Parallel:** The Bronze Age Collapse (c. 1200 BCE) wiped out Mycenaean Greece, the Hittite Empire, and weakened Egypt through interconnected crises. - **Demographic Vulnerability:** Without synthetic fertilizers, global agriculture can only sustain ~2 billion people, threatening the remaining ~6 billion with starvation or displacement. - **Modern "Sea Peoples":** Impending resource scarcity risks driving millions of hungry refugees toward stable economic zones. - **Human Resilience:** Professor Jiang remains optimistic about human creativity and adaptability when forced out of modern Western complacency by crisis.

[01:42:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6121s) Plato's Allegory of the Cave and the Construction of Reality

To address the fundamental forces governing modern society, Professor Jiang turns to **Plato's Allegory of the Cave** from *The Republic*, calling it one of the foundational masterpieces of Western civilization. In Plato's metaphor, prisoners are chained inside a deep, dark cavern, shackled so they can only look straight ahead at a blank wall. Behind them burns a massive fire, and unknown entities move puppets in front of the flame, casting shadows onto the wall. The prisoners mistake these shadows for objective reality, building entire languages, religions, and social structures—appointing priests, poets, and teachers—around the study of these mere projections. Over time, the prisoners become addicted to this artificial reality, reacting with lethal violence against anyone who attempts to free them or reveal the illusion.

Comparing this mental conditioning to watching thousands of hours of a Korean TV drama—where a viewer initially finds the absurd plot distasteful but eventually becomes completely invested in it—Professor Jiang asserts that human consensus reality is a collective hallucination driven by imagination. Applying Plato's framework step-by-step, he maps out the structural layers that manufacture modern global perception:

``` [ Top Level: Internalized Perception ] ├── Values, Norms, Legal Systems, Cultural Customs │ [ Layer 4: Legitimizers & Interpreters ] ├── Media, Hollywood/Culture, Education Systems │ [ Layer 3: Multilateral Mask / Formal Institutions ] ├── World Bank, United Nations, World Trade Organization (WTO) │ [ Layer 2: The Game Masters / Financial Elite ] ├── Bank for International Settlements (BIS - Basel) ├── SWIFT Payment System, Wall Street, City of London ├── Federal Reserve System (Money Creation) │ [ Layer 1: The Chains / Enforcers ] └── U.S. Empire & Military-Industrial Complex ```

When host Steven Bartlett asks if he, as a podcast host, is part of this media machine, Professor Jiang confirms that anyone operating within media is facilitating the narrative. He explains that even independent creators are bound by the system because the financial elite at Layer 2 control the creation and distribution of money itself. The true tragedy of modern society, according to Professor Jiang, is that people mistakenly believe the system is anchored at the top by objective laws, values, and norms, when in reality, those are merely artificial constructs designed to keep the population compliant within the cave.

- **Primary Source Text:** Plato’s *The Republic* (Allegory of the Cave). - **Layer 1 (The Chains):** The American military-industrial complex and imperial power enforce physical control. - **Layer 2 (The Puppet Masters):** Private financial elites operating through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, SWIFT, Wall Street, the City of London, and the Federal Reserve manage currency creation and global transaction rules. - **Layer 3 (The Facade):** Multilateral institutions like the UN, World Bank, and WTO present an illusion of neutral global management. - **Layer 4 (The Interpreters):** Media, education, and cultural institutions act as the "prisoners who became leaders," teaching others to revere the shadows on the wall.

[01:50:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6606s) Authoritarian Enforcement and Independent Media

Continuing his breakdown of how global power structures maintain control, Professor Jiang emphasizes that the current social order is a remarkably delicate edifice. If a single key actor fails to cooperate, the entire architecture threatens to collapse. The primary reason our world feels increasingly unstable is that younger generations are losing faith in the "shadows on the wall"—the foundational narratives handed down by authorities. When the public stops believing these illusions voluntarily, the system is forced to become significantly more authoritarian, utilizing pressure and coercion to mandate belief.

``` ┌───────────────────────────────┐ │ Delicate Social Edifice │ └──────────────┬────────────────┘ │ Disbelief among younger generations │ ▼ ┌───────────────────────────────┐ │ Authoritarian Control Tactics │ └──────────────┬────────────────┘ │ ┌──────────────────────┴──────────────────────┐ ▼ ▼ ┌──────────────────┐ ┌──────────────────┐ │ Censorship & │ │ DEI & "Woke" │ │ Deplatforming │ │ Ideology │ └──────────────────┘ └──────────────────┘ ```

Steven Bartlett interjects, pointing out that this mechanism explains the intensifying war on independent media and podcasters, who are actively questioning the status quo and challenging establishment narratives. Bartlett observes that the corporate media's hostility is rooted in human nature and financial self-interest—noting how legacy media aggressively targeted platforms like Facebook and Google when 70% to 80% of total advertising revenue shifted away from traditional outlets. Professor Jiang agrees, adding that while media elites act out of systemic incentives rather than pure villainy, their crackdowns are ultimately futile. Mechanisms like censorship, deplatforming, and forced ideological conformity (such as "woke politics" and DEI mandates) serve as enforcement tools to protect fragile interests.

- **Systemic Vulnerability:** The global control framework is a delicate structure dependent on total compliance; non-cooperation by key players risks widespread collapse. - **Rise of Independent Media:** State and corporate panic over independent podcasters stems from the fear that alternative voices reveal the "shadows" to be fake, triggering a dangerous ripple effect. - **Enforcement Mechanisms:** Ideological conformity, DEI policies, and social censorship are analyzed as compliance mechanisms designed to stabilize an increasingly wobbly societal framework.

> "The system needs to become much more authoritarian. It needs to force people to believe what they refuse to believe."

---

[01:52:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6757s) The War for Reality: Bankers vs. Tech Bros

The discussion pivots to Yuval Noah Harari’s *Sapiens*, with Bartlett observing that human civilization relies on shared fictions—such as paper money, nation-states, and formal religions—that keep society from dissolving into chaos. Professor Jiang warns, however, that as more young people realize they are being lied to, a massive historical opening emerges to overthrow the existing order. This isn't merely a geopolitical conflict between nation-states; it is a fundamental war over the nature of reality itself, currently playing out as a clash between traditional Wall Street bankers and Silicon Valley tech titans.

For decades, traditional financial institutions and Wall Street held unquestioned authority over the United States. Today, a new faction of tech leaders—including Peter Thiel, Larry Ellison, Sam Altman, and Palantir—are aligning with political movements to build infrastructure like "Operation Stargate." Jiang argues that these advanced AI and technological architectures aim to consolidate absolute control over the human imagination. Yet, drawing on historical patterns, he stresses that no matter how stable an empire or control structure seems, it will inevitably come crashing down in a cyclical fashion.

- **Foundational Narratives:** Human civilization is held together by stacked, accepted stories; rejecting these narratives creates structural crises. - **Factional Power Struggle:** The current global power structure is split between legacy financial elites (Wall Street bankers) and high-tech moguls (the Silicon Valley "tech bros"). - **Operation Stargate & AI:** Advanced technological initiatives like Operation Stargate represent an attempt by tech figures to shape and govern human imagination directly.

> "It's not just a war between different nation-states. It's also a war for the fundamental nature of reality. You have the bankers versus the tech bros."

---

[01:54:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6896s) The Twilight of the American Empire

Invoking historical theorists like Oswald Spengler and modern investors like Ray Dalio, Professor Jiang outlines the lifecycle of global superpowers. While empires historically average roughly 250 years, the United States has entered its final twilight phase. Drawing on Spengler’s *The Decline of the West*, Jiang explains that human societies act like biological organisms: they are born, they grow, they decline, and they die. This organic cycle is ultimately necessary because the fall of an established superpower creates the fertile ground required for fresh human innovation.

When Bartlett asks if a total collapse could occur within his own lifetime, Jiang responds with a stark timeline: a very strong possibility exists that the American empire collapses within the next 5 to 10 years. The drivers behind this decline are identical to those that brought down previous historic empires: unsustainable national debt, rampant systemic corruption, extreme economic inequality, and strategic overstretch. By alienating allies and aggressive posturing overseas, the United States is inadvertently uniting rival world powers into a cohesive anti-American bloc.

- **Historical Empire Lifespan:** Superpowers follow predictable biological lifecycles, lasting roughly 250 years before collapsing under structural strain. - **Timeline for Collapse:** High probability of an American imperial collapse within 5 to 10 years. - **Four Drivers of Imperial Decay:** - Excessive national debt - Deep-seated corruption - Severe economic inequality - Geopolitical overstretch that unifies foreign adversaries

> "I think there's a very strong possibility that the American empire will collapse in the next 5 to 10 years because it is overstretched, it's in too much debt, and it is really angering the entire world."

---

[01:57:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7028s) Hermetic Philosophy, Consciousness, and Personal Purpose

When asked what an individual should do to prepare for the collapse of Western hegemony, Professor Jiang shifts from geopolitical strategy to ancient metaphysics. He introduces Hermetic philosophy—an ancient Egyptian body of thought that underpins Plato’s Allegory of the Cave—which posits that physical reality is not primary, but rather a dense manifestation of energy, vibrations, and universal consciousness. Our physical bodies are merely temporary vehicles used by the soul to experience a tangible universe that does not exist in the non-material spiritual realm.

According to this view, every human being is a fractal of the divine ("as above, so below; as below, so above"). Because individual actions directly influence the collective fabric of reality, focusing obsessively on global geopolitical wars or financial wealth accumulation is counterproductive. The true response to systemic collapse is to focus on personal moral development, cultivating creativity, and bringing unconditional goodness to those immediately around you. Bartlett echoes this sentiment, sharing a personal story of watching tourists in Europe and recognizing them as individual points of a single, fragmented consciousness exploring its own creation.

- **Hermetic Principles:** Physical material is secondary to energy and consciousness; reality is fundamentally driven by thought and spiritual intention. - **Fractal Nature of Existence:** The principle of "as above, so below" means each individual acts as a fractal of the whole, meaning personal morality directly alters universal reality. - **Practical Guidance for Crisis:** Rather than panicking over geopolitical collapse or wealth hoarding, individuals should focus on self-improvement, local community impact, and creative expression.

> "It's not really about how can I stop these wars from happening, because you cannot... It's really about how do I live my life to the fullest? How do I become a much more creative individual that brings goodness to the people around me?"

---

[02:00:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7241s) The Kabbalah, Dialectics, and Eschatology in the Middle East

To illustrate how deep spiritual frameworks influence world events, Professor Jiang highlights Kabbalistic mysticism and the archetype of the Tree of Life. He frames global history through a classic dialectical model: thesis, antithesis, and synthesis. In this framework, the divine "will to bestow" creates Adam Kadmon (the "will to receive"), whose eventual separation shatters the world structure. True redemption (*Tikkun Olam*) occurs only when humanity recognizes its structural folly and seeks forgiveness, restoring the original cosmic balance.

Jiang argues that this exact eschatological framework drives key religious and political actors in the Middle East today. Certain hardline factions in Israel operate under a belief that by provoking catastrophic regional conflict, they are forcing the hand of God. In their theological worldview, driving events to an absolute extreme will cause the world to turn on Israel, humbling the nation and breaking its hubris. This collective desperation and divine plea will, in their view, trigger the end of the current world order and a return to paradise.

- **Dialectical Framework:** The cosmic cycle follows thesis, antithesis, and synthesis—mirroring the spiritual separation and ultimate reunification of creation. - **Adam Kadmon Archetype:** Represents the collective spiritual vessel whose shattering requires systematic repair (*Tikkun Olam*). - **Geopolitical Millenarianism:** Certain geopolitical strategies in the Middle East are explicitly designed around end-times theology, attempting to force divine intervention through engineered crisis.

> "If Israel is committing all these atrocities in the Middle East... eventually the world will have to punish the Israelis... And once that phenomenon happens, when all people in Israel, at the same time, beg God for deliverance and for forgiveness, the world will end and will return to paradise."

---

[02:02:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7353s) Salvation Through Love: How Professor Jiang’s Wife Saved His Life

Bartlett transitions to the podcast's signature closing tradition, asking Professor Jiang the question left by the previous guest: *"Who will you miss the most and why?"* Emotionally moved, Jiang answers without hesitation that he will miss his wife most. He reveals that despite graduating from Yale with immense expectations, he suffered decades of professional failure, ended up teaching without a steady income, and plummeted into severe depression. At his absolute lowest point, he met his wife, whom he describes as an angel sent in response to his desperate prayers for redemption.

His wife loved him unconditionally when he had nothing, proving her absolute faith in him by choosing to have a child together—a sacrifice that completely altered his outlook on life. When Jiang considered taking a lucrative $1 million corporate consulting job packaging wealthy Chinese students for Ivy League admissions, his wife stopped him. She urged him to stay true to himself and set an authentic example for their son. This pushed him to teach high school and start creating the geopolitical YouTube videos that eventually exploded online to over 2.5 million subscribers. Jiang concludes that her unconditional love restored his purpose, giving him something in this world he truly treasures.

- **The Fall from Yale:** Despite an Ivy League education, Professor Jiang experienced decades of failure and severe depression before finding his path. - **The Turnaround:** His wife's unconditional love and the birth of their son forced him out of despair and into authentic work. - **Refusing the $1M Shortcut:** Turned down high-paying admissions consulting for Chinese elites ($1M per student package) on his wife's advice to maintain personal integrity. - **Rise of 'Predictive History':** His teaching background and commitment to authenticity led directly to the organic explosion of his YouTube platform.

> "She told me, 'You can't do that. You have to be true to yourself and you have to be true to our son. Set a good example for him.'... By loving me unconditionally, by being kind to me, it changed me forever."

[02:06:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7568s) The Origin of Predictive History and the Power of Unconditional Love

Professor Jiang reflects on the explosive growth of his YouTube channel, *Predictive History*, explaining that while he imagined finding an audience, he never anticipated scaling to such an extent. He shares that the true catalyst for his creative vision was falling in love with his wife. Loving each other unconditionally opened up his imagination, allowing him to see and feel things that were previously inaccessible and making him feel deeply connected to "the universe." This spiritual and emotional connection gave him the intuitive drive and courage to launch a YouTube channel centered on geopolitics and history, famously deciding to make bold, seemingly "stupid predictions" to see where they would lead.

The host, Steven Bartlett, expresses sheer amazement at Professor Jiang's rapid trajectory, noting that gaining two to two-and-a-half million subscribers within a single year is virtually unheard of—especially for niche educational content focused on geopolitics and history. Despite this massive success, Professor Jiang insists that the sudden fame and audience growth have not changed his core identity. He emphasizes that his ultimate mission is to share himself with others, learn continuously, and remain brave and open-minded for his family, rather than trying to build a massive media education enterprise or a private university network like Jordan Peterson.

* **Key Catalyst:** Falling in love and experiencing unconditional family love opened his mind and connected him to "the source." * **Rapid Growth:** Acquired between 2.0 to 2.5 million subscribers in just about one year. * **Core Philosophy:** Values his family mission far above fame, wealth, or status; if his channel were deleted tomorrow, he notes he could simply start over because his true source of creativity remains intact.

---

[02:09:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7755s) Polarizing Perspectives, Demystifying Geopolitics, and Final Words

Steven Bartlett reveals how Professor Jiang came to be a guest on *The Diary Of A CEO*, explaining that an overwhelming, staggering number of audience members flooded his comment section demanding an episode with him. Bartlett describes going down the "rabbit hole" of Professor Jiang's videos after repeatedly seeing his name mentioned. Professor Jiang acknowledges his reputation, noting candidly, "I am a polarizing figure," where some people deeply love his work while others intensely dislike it. Bartlett responds that his goal as an interviewer—whether sitting across from figures like Kamala Harris, Ivanka Trump, Gavin Newsom, or Michelle Obama—is always the pursuit of truth rather than getting trapped in ideological tribalism.

Bartlett praises Professor Jiang for his ability to demystify complex geopolitical dynamics and break them down through clear visual storytelling. This approach makes intricate global affairs accessible and actionable even for those who struggled with traditional academic textbooks or school settings. In response, Professor Jiang delivers his core closing message: every single individual possesses the innate capacity to learn the truth for themselves, provided they have the desire and the will to pursue it.

* **Audience Demand:** Professor Jiang was brought onto the podcast due to relentless viewer requests in the comment section. * **Educational Impact:** Simplifies complex historical, economic, and geopolitical frameworks into visual, easily digestible insights. * **Closing Philosophy:** "Everyone has the capacity to learn the truth for himself or herself. It's only a question of desire and will."

## Notable quotes > [39:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2381s) it takes some time for the pigeons to get out to the armies — Peter Hegseth

> [01:50:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6606s) The system needs to become much more authoritarian. It needs to force people to believe what they refuse to believe. — Professor Jiang

> [01:52:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6757s) It's not just a war between different nation-states. It's also a war for the fundamental nature of reality. You have the bankers versus the tech bros. — Professor Jiang

> [01:54:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6896s) I think there's a very strong possibility that the American empire will collapse in the next 5 to 10 years because it is overstretched, it's in too much debt, and it is really angering the entire world. — Professor Jiang

> [01:57:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7028s) It's not really about how can I stop these wars from happening, because you cannot... It's really about how do I live my life to the fullest? How do I become a much more creative individual that brings goodness to the people around me? — Professor Jiang

> [02:00:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7241s) If Israel is committing all these atrocities in the Middle East... eventually the world will have to punish the Israelis... And once that phenomenon happens, when all people in Israel, at the same time, beg God for deliverance and for forgiveness, the world will end and will return to paradise. — Professor Jiang

> [02:02:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7353s) She told me, 'You can't do that. You have to be true to yourself and you have to be true to our son. Set a good example for him.'... By loving me unconditionally, by being kind to me, it changed me forever. — Professor Jiang

> [02:09:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7755s) Everyone has the capacity to learn the truth for himself or herself. It's only a question of desire and will. — Professor Jiang

## Mentioned Professor Jiang, Peter Hegseth, Aleksandr Dugin, IRGC, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Mossad, GCC, New York Times, CNN, North Korea, South Korea, Seoul, Kim Jong Un, THAAD, Steve Keen, Plato, United States, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), SWIFT, Federal Reserve System, World Bank, United Nations, World Trade Organization (WTO), Steven Bartlett, Wall Street, City of London, Facebook, Google, Yuval Noah Harari, Sapiens, Silicon Valley, Peter Thiel, Larry Ellison, Sam Altman, Palantir, Operation Stargate, Oswald Spengler, Ray Dalio, The Decline of the West, Yale, Predictive History, Jordan Peterson, The Diary Of A CEO, Kamala Harris, Ivanka Trump, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw)

中文简报

对伊石油围困升级姜教授认为三战风险达90% 随着美国海军对伊朗和俄罗斯石油运输的拦截升级为区域多线战争，美帝国在十年内面临潜在崩溃危机。姜教授提出了一份严峻的地缘政治分析，预测由于战略过度扩张、国家债务以及全球多线冲突，美帝国在未来5至10年内不可避免地走向衰落。他详细分析了伊朗去中心化的“马赛克战略”、以色列更广泛的领土野心、俄罗斯的经济运作，以及在全球秩序变动中朝鲜的战略定位。除地缘政治外，讨论还延伸至哲学与精神层面，探讨了权力结构如何塑造人类认知、传统金融与科技精英之间的角逐，以及在系统性崩溃时期个人关爱与道德操守的至关重要性。伊朗实施了去中心化的“马赛克战略”（Mosaic Strategy），将全国武装力量划分为31个地方指挥体系，以防美军的高层“斩首”打击瓦解其防务机制。 (39:41) 在末世论神学愿景驱动下，伊朗试图取代沙特阿拉伯在伊斯兰世界的领导地位；江教授分析认为，这场冲突有80%到90%的概率演变成第三次世界大战。 (40:42) 全球四大主要力量正展开地缘棋局对抗：美国推行“美洲堡垒”策略，俄罗斯依托“第三罗马战略”联合欧亚，以色列力推“大以色列计划”，而伊朗则通过非对称战争寻求重塑地区秩序。 (42:18) 美军在“南矛行动”（Operation Southern Spear）中已开始主动拦截并扣押来自俄罗斯影子舰队的油轮，全球能源运输航线的物理对抗正在持续升级。 (54:40)

Reading summary

Professor Jiang argues that structural economic vulnerabilities—chiefly the erosion of the petrodollar system—have driven the United States into calculated foreign confrontations, predicting that an attritional war against Iran will trigger compounding global conflicts and accelerate the collapse of the American empire within five to ten years. Petrodollar Defense and Energy Chokepoints (6:20) According to Professor Jiang, the United States entered the conflict with Iran out of systemic economic necessity rather than mere ideological impulse. Following the February 2022 freezing of over $200 billion in Russian assets, the perceived neutrality of the US dollar dissolved, threatening global demand for US Treasuries and dollar-denominated trade. To preserve its financial hegemony, Jiang argues that Washington adopted a "Fortress America" strategy aimed at securing absolute control over Western Hemisphere resources—including Venezuelan oil reserves—while restricting Middle Eastern energy flows. This energy containment strategy places immense pressure on import-dependent powers. Middle Eastern instability threatens China, which relies on the region for 50% to 60% of its energy needs, alongside heavily exposed economies in Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Central to this geopolitical vulnerability is the Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometer-wide maritime passage handling roughly 20% of global petroleum exports as well as vital agricultural fertilizers. Jiang observes that Iran can disrupt international trade and spike insurance rates through asymmetric threats without needing to deploy conventional naval blockades. Topography and Iran's Decentralized Defense (11:48) Jiang forecasts an eventual American defeat in Iran, asserting that Western planners operate on the flawed assumption that leadership decapitation will force a swift capitulation. Contrasting the campaign with the 2003 invasion of Iraq—where flat desert terrain enabled rapid air strikes against Baghdad—Jiang emphasizes that Iran's mountainous topography functions as a natural fortress, sheltering underground missile networks and command bunkers that cannot be neutralized by air power alone. Furthermore, Jiang highlights the structural resilience of the Iranian state, which pairs a secular administrative apparatus with an ideological theocracy commanding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Under its decentralized "Mosaic Strategy," Iran distributes operational authority across 31 autonomous regional armies instructed to fight continuously until foreign forces are driven from the region. Motivated by an eschatological ambition to lead the Islamic world and displace Saudi Arabia, Iranian leadership views the conflict as an existential religious duty, ensuring an extended war of attrition. Great Power Blocs and Proxy Fronts (62:13) Jiang models the broadening global confrontation as a clash between distinct grand strategies: the United States pursuing hemisphere security and maritime control, Russia advancing Eurasian alliances, and Iran mobilizing regional proxy networks. While the U.S. executes maritime interdictions—such as Operation Southern Spear targeting Russia's estimated 1,000-ship "shadow fleet" and plans to blockade Iranian oil exports at Kharg Island—Jiang predicts that direct Russian and Chinese support will neutralize these pressure points through Caspian Sea transit routes, resource-backed sovereign credit, and an extended nuclear umbrella. Simultaneously, secondary flashpoints are predicted to compound into wider war. These include an attritional struggle over Ukraine's port city of Odesa, which controls roughly one-third of regional carbohydrate and grain exports, and rising tension across Asian sea lanes around Taiwan and the Strait of Malacca. In East Asia, Jiang forecasts that North Korea will exploit the depletion of regional U.S. air defense systems—such as redirected THAAD batteries—to extort South Korea under the imminent threat of mass artillery strikes against Seoul. Domestic Militarization and Imperial Lifecycle (79:43) Domestically, Jiang predicts that sustaining a multi-decade foreign war will force the United States to reinstate a military draft, noting that automatic draft registration mechanisms are expanding to encompass young men aged 18 to 24. He also forecasts the acceleration of an AI-driven surveillance state enforced through digital identification and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) designed to monitor online discourse and personal financial transactions. Politically, Jiang speculates that Donald Trump could pursue a third presidential term by leveraging emergency war powers or legal loopholes around succession. Drawing on Oswald Spengler's historical models and the systemic collapse of Bronze Age civilizations over 3,000 years ago, Jiang asserts that the American empire has entered its terminal twilight. Burdened by unsustainable national debt, domestic political polarization, and strategic overreach, he estimates a high probability that the American imperial framework will collapse within 5 to 10 years, advising individuals to prioritize local community resilience over centralized institutional dependencies. Professor Jiang's thesis portrays the expanding geopolitical conflict as an inevitable structural consequence of imperial overextension and financial decline. However, his assertions rely heavily on speculative forecasts, such as the legal viability of a third presidential term—which faces formidable constitutional challenges under the 12th and 22nd Amendments—and the assumption that Eurasian powers will absorb catastrophic economic risks to openly counter U.S. maritime dominance.

精炼阅读摘要

姜教授（Professor Jiang）在访谈中提出，美国正试图通过对伊朗的军事施压与全球关键咽喉要道的控制，重塑能源主导权并打造孤立自保的“美洲堡垒”；但他预测这一地缘冒险将使美军陷入无法速胜的消耗战，并加速欧亚大陆的反制联盟形成，最终在五至十年内推动美国帝国步入类似青铜时代崩溃的系统性衰退。伊朗地形现实与马赛克非对称消耗战 (11:48) 姜教授将当前的伊朗局势与2003年伊拉克战争进行了鲜明对比。他指出，伊拉克平坦开阔的沙漠地形便于美军实施快速瘫痪指挥中枢的“震慑”打击，并在两周内攻破巴格达；然而伊朗拥有9200万人口且地势险峻，属于天然的高山要塞，关键导弹库与指挥系统深植于地下网络，单纯依靠空袭根本无法迫使其屈服。美国战略若建立在通过斩首迅速促成政权更迭的假设上，必然会因低估当地历史文化与社会承受力而受挫。根据其分析，伊朗在政治与军事上构建了独特的双重体系：世俗官僚机制与常规军队负责日常行政，而受宗教使命驱动的伊斯兰革命卫队则主导“马赛克战略”（Mosaic Strategy）。该战略将指挥权彻底下放给全国31个独立的区域军，要求各单位各自为战直至将外部力量彻底逐出中东。加之最窄处仅33公里的霍尔木兹海峡承担着全球约20%的能源运输，且海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）国家89%的粮食依赖该航道，其海水淡化设施与物流节点极易受到扰动。姜教授认为，伊朗无需直接封锁海峡，仅凭威慑推高海运保费即可重创全球贸易，使美军不可避免地面临旷日持久的泥潭。 “美洲堡垒”战略与欧亚大国的协同反制 (19:46) 依据美国《国防战略》（National Defense Strategy）文件的底层逻辑，姜教授解析了华盛顿重塑霸权的四点框架：绝对掌控西半球（涵盖委内瑞拉、加拿大、格陵兰与墨西哥）、将区域防务成本转嫁给盟友、通过封锁马六甲等海峡遏制中国，以及将民用制造业重组为军工产能。美方近期针对委内瑞拉石油的控制行动与在加勒比海拦截俄方“影子舰队”油轮的“南矛行动”（Operation Southern Spear），均服务于迫使全球重新依赖美国控制之能源的战略目的。然而，这种封锁策略正促成欧亚大国的联合对冲。姜教授指出，中俄可通过里海航线与“一带一路”铁路网络建立补给线，以伊朗的自然资源为抵押提供主权金融兜底，并依托俄罗斯的核威慑消除全面毁灭风险，从而化解美方的经济绞杀。在东欧战场，俄罗斯对黑海咽喉敖德萨的争夺，直接关乎全球约三分之一碳水化合物与谷物供应的控制权。与此同时，姜教授推测中美之间可能达成某种“大妥协”（Grand Bargain）：中国为避免卷入昂贵的海外扩张争霸，将采取平衡三角策略，以购买美国国债为筹码，换取进入美国消费市场与西半球能源的稳定通道。外溢震荡：大以色列计划与亚洲勒索风险 (89:43) 在地缘格局重组的连锁反应下，中东与亚洲正形成新的冲突断层线。姜教授预测，以色列正在利用当前战局推进从尼罗河延伸至幼发拉底河的“大以色列”（Greater Israel）领土蓝图；一旦美军未来自中东回撤，以色列或将直接接管美军中央司令部（CENTCOM）在该区域的军事基地设施，并将土耳其视为该扩张路径上的最终主要战略对手。在亚洲方向，除台湾海峡（牵涉资源贫乏的日本之海上生命线）与马六甲海峡的潜在对峙外，姜教授认为最紧迫的黑天鹅在于朝鲜半岛。在欧美深陷中东与乌克兰战局、美军抽调部署于日韩的“萨德”（THAAD）防空系统支援中东的背景下，缺乏战略回旋余地的朝鲜政权获得了前所未有的博弈杠杆。首尔的核心人口与经济设施距朝鲜常规火炮阵地仅约20分钟车程，姜教授运用博弈论推断，平壤极可能利用此种毁灭性威胁对高度厌恶战争破坏的韩国实施极限经济与政治敲诈。帝国周期律、AI全面监控与社区微观自救 (95:46) 结合奥斯瓦尔德·斯宾格勒的文明形态学与瑞·达利欧的帝国债务周期，姜教授主张超级大国平均寿命约为250年，而美国因无法维系的巨额债务、极端的贫富差距与战略过度扩张，极大概率在未来5至10年内迎来系统性崩溃。这一轨迹被其比作3000多年前地中海东部的“青铜时代崩溃”，即环境灾难、战乱与流民危机引发多国文明同时出现断崖式瓦解。姜教授进一步预言，为维系战时动员与国内秩序，美国未来可能通过副总统继位漏洞或战时紧急状态推迟大选，促成特朗普的第三任期，并自12月起推动18至24岁男性自动纳入兵役抽签数据库。伴随军工科技巨头与国家机器的绑定，强制性数字身份与央行数字货币（CBDC）将构成严密的AI监控状态。面对宏观体制的瓦解，姜教授强调依赖中央政府将变得不可行，个体的生存关键在于扎根微观社区、推举具备凝聚力的基层领导者共同解决水电与粮食等基本物资，并通过向内的精神觉醒来抵御制度崩塌的冲击。姜教授的论证融合了地缘博弈、历史循环论以及对特定领导人心理的极端假设，为审视全球能源咽喉与供应链脆弱性提供了极具警示意味的分析框架。然而，其论述高度依赖多项尚无制度定论的激进预测（如美国宪政机制对第三任期的约束失效、中东战事演变为数十年的无限地面战），带有强烈的思辨与宿命论色彩，在评估具体政策发展时须审慎考量各国内部政治制度的制衡弹性与外交博弈的实际妥协空间。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 本期内容由 YouTube 知名播客频道 The Diary Of A CEO 于 2026 年 5 月 7 日发布，主持人为 Steven Bartlett。节目简介指出，地缘政治分析师、YouTube 频道“Predictive History”主理人江教授（Professor Jiang）在精准预言特朗普胜选及美伊开战后，进一步揭示美国非打伊朗不可的深层原因，以及这场冲突为何可能升级为重塑全球秩序的第三次世界大战。 ## TL;DR 江教授从地理学、博弈论与帝国生命周期出发，深度剖析了美伊冲突的必然性及其引发第三次世界大战的高概率。他指出，美国为维系以石油美元和海权控制为核心的帝国霸权，试图通过控制全球能源咽喉与西半球资源来扼杀中俄等竞争对手，但伊朗依托高山堡垒与分布式“马赛克战略”将战事拖入长期消耗泥潭，最终可能导致美帝国的军事与金融溃败。与此同时，他还就特朗普第三任期的法律漏洞、中美务实大妥协、全球 AI 监控社会的降临、俄乌黑海之争以及东亚潜在摩擦做出了系统预测。在对谈后半程，讨论延伸至柏拉图洞穴寓言对现代金融与叙事控制的隐喻，呼吁普通人在帝国瓦解与去全球化的动荡周期中，依托社区自救与内心的良善追求来抵御历史风暴。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场访谈氛围深沉、冷峻而极具张力，弥漫着大时代转折点特有的末世警示感与智性穿透力。江教授的讲述既有国际象棋式的冷酷推演与宏大地缘解构，又兼具直击人心的哲学洞察；主持人 Bartlett 则以极具同理心的追问与适时的质疑，稳稳引导着谈话节奏。对谈从前半段战火硝烟与战略绞杀的窒息压迫感，逐渐过渡到后半段对柏拉图洞穴寓言、赫尔墨斯哲学以及家庭拯救力量的深情倾诉，在冰冷刺骨的帝国崩塌推演中注入了一抹温暖而坚韧的人性救赎之光。 ## Bulletin - [40:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2442s) 江教授预测美伊冲突演化为第三次世界大战的概率高达80%至90%，美帝国的瓦解与单极世界秩序崩溃或将在未来5至10年内发生。 - [23:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1434s) 美军将重构西半球霸权，通过扼守马六甲海峡、霍尔木兹海峡等全球咽喉切断竞争对手能源，同时底特律车企已被要求转产无人机和弹药等军工产品。 - [56:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3373s) 美俄在公海与能源设施的对抗已实质进入战时状态，美军启动“南矛行动”拦截俄方影子油轮，而俄罗斯正联手中伊构建内陆陆桥抵消海权封锁。 - [01:29:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5340s) 全球粮食危机迫在眉睫：若俄罗斯攻占乌克兰最后深水港敖德萨将控制全球三分之一碳水化合物供给；全球失去现代农业化肥支撑将仅能承载20亿人。 ## Key takeaways - [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=131s) 美伊战争的本质是维护石油美元体系，美国通过冻结俄罗斯资产打破了中立承诺，促使欧亚大国探索黄金结算与铁路陆权以规避海权扼喉。 - [11:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=672s) 伊朗是天然的“高山要塞”，美军无法复制2003年伊拉克平原的闪电斩首战，反而将深陷以地下导弹库为依托的非对称消耗战泥潭。 - [15:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=953s) 霍尔木兹海峡是脆弱的全球经济软肋，承担全球20%能源与海湾阿拉伯国家89%粮食进口及海水淡化运转，极易因保险停保陷入事实封锁。 - [25:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1546s) 美国新《国防战略报告》旨在打造“美洲堡垒”，在欧亚大陆推行“分而治之”制造混乱，借军火与能源外销消化国内42万亿美元国债。 - [38:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2326s) 伊朗采取由31个省份独立作战集群构成的“马赛克战略”，去中心化的指挥体系让美军的斩首行动彻底失效，常规停火协议无法生效。 - [47:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2840s) 亚历山大·杜金的欧亚主义为俄罗斯大战略提供底色，主张联合欧亚大陆以广袤地理纵深和坚韧陆军火力对抗美军的绝对海空霸权。 - [01:02:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3733s) 俄罗斯将伊朗视为南部软腹部屏障，美军的三步扼杀策略将被俄罗斯里海航线、中国“一带一路”陆运走廊以及俄罗斯核保护伞所瓦解。 - [01:10:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4220s) 特朗普极可能利用战时紧急状态或与副总统搭档禅让等宪法模糊地带谋求第三任期，且保守派主导的最高法院将为其提供司法护城河。 - [01:17:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4637s) 中美两国不会爆发热战而是达成地缘“大妥协”，中国不寻求海外扩张拖垮国力，而是在美俄之间展开第三方战略平衡以保全贸易与能源。 - [01:19:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4783s) 美国已通过法案对18至24岁年轻男性启动兵役自动化登记，预示着为维持长期的中东地面消耗战做好了全国强制征兵的数据准备。 - [01:22:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4938s) 全球加速走向数字身份与可编程法币绑定的AI监控国家，算法将依据行为轨迹实施奖惩，控制公众对现实的认知与反抗。 - [01:25:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5141s) 以色列领导层正借中东动乱窗口推进“大以色列计划”，疆界企图囊括幼发拉底河至尼罗河，未来其矛头将直接指向土耳其。 - [01:27:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5255s) 敖德萨是俄乌冲突的核心死穴，若俄罗斯切断乌克兰出海深水港，将使乌克兰沦为残存内陆国，并掌握全球饥荒与粮食断供的施压杠杆。 - [01:29:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5388s) 东亚潜伏三大地缘摩擦点：台湾攸关日本海上能源生命线，马六甲是中美海权扼喉焦点，而朝鲜则可能趁美军军力调往中东之机对首尔实施火炮勒索。 - [01:35:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5746s) 美帝国衰落将诱发类似“青铜时代崩溃”的系统性灾难，现代基建瓦解与数以千万计的气候饥荒难民潮将成为发达社会面临的最大威胁。 - [01:42:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6121s) 柏拉图洞穴寓言映射现代统治体系：底层暴力机器与金融精英联手投射虚构现实，而AI时代的大国博弈本质上是对人类意识定义权的争夺。 - [01:54:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6896s) 面对不可逆的文明崩溃与地缘剧变，个体应从赫尔墨斯哲学与家庭责任中汲取向内救赎力量，通过在微观社群践行善意与凝聚力求得生存。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=0s) 震惊全网的预言：从战时征兵到第三次世界大战的阴影访谈一开始，主持人便提到了江教授（Professor Jiang）在2024年做出的三大精准预测——其中包括唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）将会对伊朗发动战争。江教授随即抛出了一系列更加颠覆认知的新预测：首先，特朗普将迎来他的“第三个任期”。面对主持人关于这是否违宪的质疑，江教授直言这在法律上完全可能发生，因为美国总统在战时拥有紧急战争权力（Emergency war powers），足以推迟大选。其次，随着伊朗战火全面点燃，美国将推行全国征兵制（National draft），针对18至24岁的美国年轻男性，相关法案已经通过，规定自12月起年轻人将被自动纳入兵役征召系统，意味着适龄青年将必须奔赴前线作战。紧接着，江教授揭示了更为庞大的控制体系：全球正在滑向“AI平民监控国家”（AI civilian state），公民在网络上的一举一动都被巨细靡遗地记录，以供权力层计算如何进行控制。而最为严峻、最具争议的核心论点在于，这场局部冲突几乎必然升级为第三次世界大战，美帝国的崩溃存在极高概率。面对普通人坚信自己是自由的、不属于任何势力的天真想法，江教授直言私人银行家与背后的资本体系早已牢牢编织了这张掌控之网，现实的残酷远超公众想象。 - **战时总统权力**：利用紧急战争状态合法延期选举，实现政治强人的事实连任。 - **自动征兵系统**：针对全美18至24岁男性的强制登记机制，标志着社会全面转向战时动员。 - **AI全面监控与帝国黄昏**：基于行为数据的算法操纵与美帝国霸权基础动摇的连锁反应。 --- ### [02:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=131s) 美帝国不得不战：石油美元庞氏骗局与欧亚铁路的威胁谈到2024年的三大预言，江教授指出：第一，特朗普赢得2024年11月大选；第二，特朗普对伊朗发动战争；第三，美国将输掉这场战争，并由此彻底重塑全球地缘政治格局。当主持人追问美国为何非打伊朗不可时，江教授给出了底层逻辑：美国根本没有退路。美帝国的支柱是建立在石油美元（Petrodollar）之上的金融体系，在本质上如同庞氏骗局。一旦全球不再需要用美元进行贸易结算、不再购买美国国债，美帝国就将土崩瓦解。这一体系长期顺畅运转的转折点发生在2022年2月俄乌战争爆发之后。核心问题不在于俄罗斯进攻乌克兰，而在于美国的极端报复：将俄罗斯逐出环球银行金融电信协会（SWIFT）国际支付系统，并施压欧洲冻结超过2000亿美元的俄罗斯主权资产。美元能够作为全球储备货币的根本信任基础在于其“政治中立性”与保障顺畅无阻的国际兑换。当这一承诺被美国亲手打破，俄罗斯、中国和伊朗三大横跨欧亚大陆的国家便形成了联合自保的动力。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 欧亚同盟对美元与海权霸权的冲击 accDescr: 展现中俄伊通过铁路系统与黄金贸易绕开美国海权与美元体系的逻辑流程 subgraph Block1["美方触发动作"] A["冻结俄资产与SWIFT制裁"] --> B["中俄伊欧亚同盟形成"] end subgraph Block2["反制与替代路径"] B --> C["修建欧亚铁路网络"] B --> D["采用黄金作为结算媒介"] end subgraph Block3["全球格局重构"] C --> E["废黜美军海权控制力"] D --> F["金砖体系对比美元废纸"] E & F --> G["中东与欧洲转向新联盟"] end ``` 如果放任这一趋势发展，中俄伊三国通过庞大的欧亚铁路系统紧密相连，不仅能彻底架空美国赖以称霸全球的航行自由与海洋霸权，更会向世界推出以真正具备保值能力的“黄金”为结算基础的新贸易体系，直接对比并击碎缺乏实物支撑的美元纸币体系。金砖国家（BRICS，巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非等）的崛起直接动摇了以美元计价的国际秩序，迫使美国必须在中东痛下杀手。 - **美元神话破灭**：冻结俄罗斯2000亿美元资产打破了国际资本流动政治中立的前提。 - **海权对抗陆权**：欧亚铁路网络从地理纵深上规避了美国海军对关键航道的围堵与勒喉。 - **实物货币对决信用法币**：金砖国家探索的黄金结算机制直接威胁美国通过印钞转移危机的特权。 --- ### [06:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=382s) 能源扼杀战：切断中欧血脉与掌控西半球的战略大棋美国向伊朗开战迅速引发了全球能源供应链的剧烈地震。首当其冲的是中国，中国有50%到60%的能源进口依赖中东地区（包括伊朗、卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯）。尽管中国大力布局太阳能和风能等可再生能源，但作为一个庞大的全球制造中心，工业机器运转对外部化石能源的巨大胃口是不可替代的，切断中东通道在长期层面上精准击中了中国的战略脆弱点。与此同时，欧洲同样陷入水深火热。欧洲在摆脱俄罗斯天然气和石油后，将生命线寄托在中东（尤其是卡塔尔），中东战火导致其能源来源再度被掐断。而东亚的工业强国日本与韩国同样高度依赖中东原油。当下全球面临极其严峻的选择：当中东能源断绝、俄罗斯又深陷战火且其炼油厂与出口港频遭乌克兰无人机袭击时，全世界在短期内别无选择，只能低头向美国乞求能源。特朗普的棋局在此刻显露峥嵘：他迅速控制了拥有全球最高石油储量的委内瑞拉，同时对加拿大、格陵兰岛、墨西哥和哥伦比亚施加极限威胁。一旦美国实现对整个西半球能源与自然资源的全面垄断，全世界无论欧洲、东亚还是新兴市场，都不得不向特朗普俯首称臣、乞求资源配给，以此强行延长石油美元的寿命并拯救美帝国的霸业。 - **中国的能源软肋**：半数以上的中东能源输入面临阻断，工业运转与战略安全承受重压。 - **日韩与欧洲的无解困局**：对中东能源的高度依赖使得美国成为全球唯一的替代供应主导者。 - **西半球门罗主义极限版**：强控委内瑞拉、震慑周边邻国，以能源垄断锁死全球议价权。 --- ### [09:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=540s) 特朗普的盲区与误判：“真人秀思维”遭遇钢铁要塞针对“为何断定美国必输”的问题，江教授指出这是由美国深层的社会与战略缺陷决定的：美国当下的社会生态根本不具备长期消耗战所需的政治意志，不具备足够的本土工业制造产能，更缺乏承受重大伤亡的风险承受能力。白宫寄望于用一种“最廉价、最轻松、最快速”的方式打赢战争。特朗普在战术构想上存在极度幼稚的算计，误以为只要派遣先进战机发动外科手术式空袭、斩首最高领袖（Ayatollah），伊朗就会立刻崩溃投降。这种设想彻底无视了伊朗复杂的历史纵深与波斯民族独特的文化韧性。特朗普的信心很大程度上来源于此前的“概念验证”——美军三角洲特种部队（Delta Force）曾在1月3日潜入委内瑞拉直接绑架了马杜罗（Maduro），致使该政权迅速瓦解。然而，特朗普骨子里是一个“真人秀明星”（Reality TV star），行事逻辑完全被镜头感、视觉震撼（Optics）和公关效应所主导。他狂妄地认为可以把委内瑞拉的成功模式直接套用到伊朗身上，却不知自己正以极度傲慢与缺乏尊重的姿态，将美帝国拖入一个绝不可能靠几场空袭就轻易了结的地狱泥潭。 - **美国的三重致命短板**：政治意志涣散、战时工业制造能力萎缩、社会生命与经济风险承受力归零。 - **委内瑞拉式速胜幻觉**：特种突袭斩首马杜罗的经验误导了高层对伊朗抵抗意志的评估。 - **虚荣的镜头政治**：将复杂的全面地缘军事博弈简化为真人秀式的抓眼球宣示，埋下战局倾覆的祸根。 ### [11:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=672s) 伊拉克与伊朗的地形差异：为何“斩首行动”无法在山地堡垒奏效谈及美国介入伊朗的地缘政治战略动机时，深层的原因在于美军体系内部已演变成一个高度封闭且腐败的机构，其核心驱动力之一是为军工复合体争取尽可能多的商业订单与资金支持。在行动逻辑上，唐纳德·特朗普等决策层抱有一种极其天真的设想：他们认为只要对伊朗实施猛烈轰炸，伊朗人民就会揭竿而起推翻现政权，随后选出一个亲美的新政府，美国便能顺理成章地掌控伊朗。为了剖析这一判断为何大错特错，必须从地缘图景中的中东地形学（Topography）入手。许多战略家误以为伊朗会重演2003年伊拉克战争的剧本，但两国在地理构造上存在着天壤之别： - **伊拉克战争（2003年）**：美军在短短约两周内打赢了战争，核心打法是著名的“震慑与畏惧”（Shock and Awe）。该战术信奉“斩首行动”，认为只要砍掉蛇头，整条蛇就会毙命。美军长驱直入夺取巴格达，萨达姆政权随即崩溃瓦解。这种速胜在很大程度上依赖于伊拉克一马平川的平原与开阔沙漠，美军战机可以肆无忌惮地实施空袭，防守方在无遮无拦的荒原上根本无险可守。 - **伊朗的地理现实**：伊朗的地貌绝大多数由险峻的山脉构成，本质上是一座天然的“高山堡垒”（Mountain Fortress）。面对这种地形，纯粹的空中轰炸根本无法彻底瘫痪其防御纵深与指挥中枢。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 战略地形对比：平原荒漠与山地堡垒 accDescr: 对比伊拉克一马平川的地形导致斩首行动速胜，与伊朗山地堡垒适合长期游击战的差异。 subgraph Iraq["2003年伊拉克战场（平原沙漠）"] A1["地形开阔平坦/无遮掩"] --> A2["美军实施'震慑与畏惧'空中打击"] A2 --> A3["直接切入巴格达斩首政权"] A3 --> A4["两周内政权瓦解速胜"] end subgraph Iran["伊朗战场（高山堡垒）"] B1["崇山峻岭与复杂地形"] --> B2["军事资产深埋地下/山体内"] B2 --> B3["空袭无法根除地下导弹库"] B3 --> B4["转入长期游击战与消耗战"] end ``` --- ### [13:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=827s) 消耗战与“认输游戏”：伊朗的地下导弹库与不对称还击正是由于高山要塞的地形特征，伊朗完全有能力将战局拖入漫长的消耗战。消耗战的本质是一场迫使对方认输的心理与耐力博弈（Game of Uncle）——双方都没有能力彻底从肉体或国家意义上将对手一举消灭，因此双方比拼的是制造痛苦与筹码的能力，看谁先承受不住剧痛而开口求饶喊“Uncle”。伊朗拥有高达9200万人口和极为辽阔的国土面积，美以联军在物理上根本不可能彻底摧毁它。美方的策略仅仅停留在“狂轰滥炸足够多的高价值目标，迫使伊朗认识到抵抗徒劳而投降”这一浅薄层面上。然而现实中，依托山体屏障，伊朗能够将大量导弹基地、重型武器与指挥体系深埋于地下，展开极具破坏力的不对称游击战。目前伊朗正在精准践行这套打法：从深山地下发射基地向中东全境的美军基地以及关乎“石油美元”（Petrodollar）体系的能源设施倾泻火力。在这场残酷的叫板博弈中，美军试图在伊朗境内造成最大程度的破坏，而伊朗的反制手段则是尽可能重创全球能源与经济命脉，以此倒逼全世界对美国施压、强迫美军撤兵罢手。 --- ### [15:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=953s) 霍尔木兹海峡与全球能源/粮食生命线的脆弱平衡特朗普严重误判的第二个关键点，在于低估了全球经济与物流体系在面临局部冲击时的极端脆弱性。伊朗手中握有一张王牌——霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）。霍尔木兹海峡最窄处仅约33公里宽，水面狭窄到“普通人甚至能游泳游过去”。海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）的成员国——包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔、阿曼、科威特等——高度依赖该水道进行海运贸易。这条水上走廊牵动着全球脆弱的生命线： - **能源与副产品外运**：全球约20%的能源以及化肥等能源副产品经由该海峡运往世界各地，其最主要的买家是东亚和印度。 - **粮食依赖与水源命脉**：海合会国家过去几十年因石油财富急剧膨胀，人口暴增，但本土几乎没有农业耕地与淡水资源，其89%的粮食依赖外部进口。为了维持庞大人口的生存，海湾各国在沿海大量建设海水淡化厂（Desalination Plants），将海水经由电化学工艺转化为饮用与农业淡水。这些海水淡化设施与能源港口完全暴露在伊朗无人机与弹道导弹的直射射程之内，极易瘫痪。更为致命的是封锁海峡的方式：伊朗甚至无需派军舰去物理横截航道，仅凭宣称“将打击任何过境船只”就足以达成封锁。现代远洋海运全部依赖海上航运保险（Maritime Insurance），一旦战争风险攀升至极限，保险公司会直接拒绝承保，商业货轮便自行停止通航。 --- ### [19:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1154s) 美国国防战略的底牌：门罗主义与重构全球盟友关系许多舆论往往将美军开战归咎于特朗普个人脾气暴躁、愚蠢或被以色列军情牵着鼻子走，但若审视由美国战争部/国防部发布的《国防战略报告》（National Defense Strategy），就会发现其背后存在一套系统性的帝国维霸方案。该战略报告开篇即宣称：长期以来美国“受尽了全世界的欺凌”。美国一直在无偿充当世界警察保护全球安全，欧洲和东亚盟友却将美国的大方视作理所当然；欧洲国家不愿为自身防务出资，省下钱去大搞高福利与养老金体系；而中国则在贸易协议中占尽便宜，甚至涉嫌窃取美国技术生产廉价商品回销美国。为了终结这种被动局面，特朗普版国家战略规划了重塑世界格局的四大支柱： 1. **巩固西半球主权（“唐·门罗主义”，The Don Monroe Doctrine）**：将传统门罗主义升级为特朗普推论。美国划定西半球（包括格陵兰岛、加拿大、墨西哥及加勒比海等全部区域）归属自身核心禁区。任何域外大国想与西半球国家贸易，必须获得美国批准或向美国缴纳“贡赋”。为了震慑中俄并表明“后院不容涉足”的底线，美国已将三分之一的海军主力战舰常态化部署在加勒比海。 2. **重塑盟友合作契约**：彻底改写与北约及亚洲盟友的关系。北约盟国必须承担自身防务支出，并在乌克兰前线主动承担抗击俄罗斯的主力责任，美国仅扮演提供资金与军火的后方支援角色；而在东亚，韩国和日本必须承担更多遏制中国的军事责任。 --- ### [22:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1373s) 针对中国的地缘绞杀：马六甲海峡与第一岛链四点战略方案中的第三点，专门针对中国量身定制。该战略主张，美国的目标并不是从肉体上彻底消灭中国或公开羞辱中国，而是必须“让中国认清自己的地位”（put China in its place），迫使其重新敬畏并屈服于美国的实力与霸权边界。实现这一目标的杀招在于经济与能源上的“地缘绞杀”： - **马六甲海峡（Strait of Malacca）作为核心咽喉**：作为全球最为核心的海运咽喉，中国绝大部分的原油进口与远洋商贸必须途经马六甲海峡。 - **航道封锁机制**：美军战略构想只需将其核动力航空母舰战斗群封堵在马六甲海峡航道上，配合其在亚太构建的“第一岛链”（First Island Chain）军事封锁网，即可瞬间切断中国高达90%的海外能源进口生命线。即便中国商船企图突围，只要核心海峡卡死在美军舰队的严密监视与打击范围内，任何常规海上物流都将被彻底掐断。 ### [23:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1434s) 第一岛链锁喉与军工复合体的重振美国遏制对手的整体地缘架构中，地理扼喉点占据着核心地位。所谓“第一岛链”涵盖了韩国、日本、中国台湾、菲律宾和马来西亚，这道锁链将中国与广阔的太平洋彻底隔绝。在此围堵下，亚洲大宗贸易若要向外延伸至印度、非洲以及中东，就必须穿过极其狭窄的马六甲海峡。美国只需将航母打击群部署在马六甲海峡的关键水域，就能轻而易举建立海上封锁线，甚至迫使过往船只缴纳“过路费”。与外部围堵相配合的第四项核心战略，是全面激活并超级加速美国的国防工业基础（Defense Industrial Base）。五角大楼高层官员近期已亲赴底特律，直接与福特（Ford）和通用汽车（General Motors）等传统汽车制造巨头会面，下达明确指令：“因为伊朗战事爆发，我们可能需要你们暂停民用车辆的生产，全面转向弹药与无人机的制造。”五角大楼甚至公开了这一战略动向。对汽车制造商而言，这反而是极具诱惑力的生意：民用车面对的是挑剔且购买力波动的普通消费者，利润率微薄；而五角大楼拥有近乎无限的政府预算与漫天要价的采购空间。转产军工、为一场看似永无休止的东方战争源源不断提供杀戮武器，对底特律巨头而言成了天底下最划算的买卖。 - **第一岛链封锁线**：由韩国、日本、中国台湾、菲律宾及马来西亚构成，锁死进入太平洋的通道。 - **马六甲海峡战略控制**：切断通往印度、非洲与中东的海上命脉，通过航母封锁施加通行税。 - **民转军制造转型**：五角大楼正式要求福特、通用等底特律车企转产无人机与核心弹药，以超高军工利润取代民用消费市场。 --- ### [25:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1546s) 《国防战略》揭秘：美洲堡垒与全球“分而治之” 外界媒体和流行舆论常常将特朗普描绘成鲁莽愚蠢的决策者，认为对伊朗开战荒唐透顶且毫无逻辑。然而，只要任何人打开美国战争部（国防部）官方网站，免费下载并翻阅公开的《国防战略报告》（National Defense Strategy），就会发现一套极其清晰、冷酷的帝国霸权路线图。这套战略的第一大支柱，是彻底掌控整个西半球，打造牢不可破的“美洲堡垒”（Fortress America）。这也是为何特朗普在过去一年中频繁对格陵兰岛、加拿大、墨西哥、委内瑞拉、古巴、哥伦比亚、尼加拉瓜和洪都拉斯等国施压或采取军事行动的原因——将整个美洲大陆牢牢焊死在华盛顿的绝对控制之下。第二大支柱则是经典的欧亚大陆“分而治之”策略：在欧洲，推动北约与乌克兰同俄罗斯鏖战；在东亚，驱使日韩盟友与中国正面抗衡；在中东，则挑起海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）与以色列的联盟，全力绞杀伊朗。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 美国帝国霸权战略架构 accDescr: 展示美洲堡垒与欧亚大陆分而治之的整体地缘布局 subgraph S1["美洲堡垒 (Fortress America)"] direction TB A["控制西半球全境"] --> B["吞并/干预格陵兰、加墨、古巴与委内瑞拉"] end subgraph S2["欧亚大陆分而治之"] direction TB C["欧洲战场：北约与乌克兰 vs 俄罗斯"] D["东亚战场：日韩同盟 vs 中国"] E["中东战场：以色列与GCC盟友 vs 伊朗"] end subgraph S3["战略收割与资本闭环"] direction TB F["对外高价倾销军火、能源与大宗资源"] G["由全球战争承接并消化美国42万亿美元国债"] end S1 --> S3 S2 --> S3 ``` 在这种全球离岸平衡下，美国不仅能消耗所有潜在对手的国力，还能重演第二次世界大战的暴利模式：向各方高价兜售武器、输送能源与战略资源，并提供全套战时金融支持。全球陷入战火所引发的资本外逃，将直接买单并消化美国高达42万亿美元的天量国家债务。“如果你退后一步审视整张世界地缘拼图，美方推进全球冲突的这套打法不仅合乎逻辑，甚至严丝合缝。” --- ### [27:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1669s) 战争前三阶段演变与“美军必败”的真正含义尽管眼下战争节奏看似完全倒向白宫，但这场战争最终将以美军的失败收场。所谓“输掉战争”，并不是指伊朗军队能反推到华盛顿，而是指美军最终不得不投入地面部队进行全面入侵，而伊朗政权在崇山峻岭中成功扛过地面扫荡。长期深陷中东战争泥潭将引发美国本土激烈的政治震荡与社会混乱，最终迫使美军狼狈撤出中东。回顾开战以来的演变节奏，整场冲突正按照预定阶段逐步失控： 1. **第一阶段（斩首与震慑）**：自2月28日打响，持续约6周。美军试图通过“震慑与威慑”（Shock and Awe）行动，对德黑兰政治中枢及全境军事基地实施高密度精确打击，企图借由斩首行动迅速迫使德黑兰高层“认输求饶”（Call uncle）。 2. **第二阶段（抵抗与僵持）**：伊朗并未屈服，而是以加倍强硬的姿态反扑。他们全面轰炸了分布在海湾阿拉伯国家的各大美军基地，强行封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，并借此空前团结了国内民意。 3. **第三阶段（反向封锁与博弈升级）**：斩首彻底失效后，特朗普被迫转向“对封锁实施反向封锁”。这标志着美军正被逐步拖入下一轮深不见底的常规升级泥潭。 --- ### [30:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1800s) 博弈论视角下迫使伊朗屈服的三步绝杀战略博弈论的本质在于洞察驱动各行为体的规则与利益诱因。地缘舞台上的主权国家就像棋盘上的自利博弈者，时刻利用自身资源向对手施加最大压力。伊朗不仅封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，更将其转化为战时财政造血机器——对每艘冒险通行的商船强行征收约200万美元的高昂过路费。为了彻底剥夺德黑兰的战略筹码，五角大楼正策划一套旨在迫使伊朗彻底屈服的三步绝杀体系。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 美国迫使伊朗屈服的三步绝杀战略 accDescr: 经济绞杀、挑动内部民族动乱引蛇出洞、切断德黑兰生命线 A["第一步：经济绞杀"] --> A1["封锁哈尔克岛(90%原油出口)"] A1 --> A2["截断霍尔木兹海峡通关收费"] B["第二步：边境代理人叛乱"] --> B1["设立前沿作战基地(FOB)"] B1 --> B2["武装东南部俾路支人与西北部库尔德人"] B2 --> B3["逼迫伊朗正规军离开地下掩体出山平叛"] B3 --> B4["利用空优在开阔地带进行毁灭打击"] C["第三步：窒息首都德黑兰"] --> C1["破坏电网与发电厂"] C1 --> C2["轰炸大型蓄水库与供水系统"] C2 --> C3["截断粮食供应制造千万人口人道灾难"] ``` 第一步是**经济绞杀**，从根本上摧毁伊朗的战费筹措能力。伊朗目前的战时财政仅靠两根支柱维持：其一是霍尔木兹海峡的过境通行费；其二是原油外销，其中高达90%的石油经由波斯湾北部的哈尔克岛（Kharg Island）直接运往中国。美军发起的海上反封锁行动，核心目标就是全面封死哈尔克岛的油轮离港并压制海峡收费权。第二步是**挑动内部族群冲突，将“天然堡垒”变成“内部监狱”**。伊朗的人口地理结构极为特殊：主体波斯人大多聚居在中部高原，而边境地带则由桀骜不驯的少数族裔包围。东南部邻近巴基斯坦边境的俾路支人（Baluchis）拥有悠久的武装叛乱传统；西北部山区则分布着长期谋求自治的库尔德人（Kurds）。五角大楼的算盘绝非派大批美军盲目开进广袤的伊朗内陆，而是在边境地带建立前沿作战基地（Forward Operating Bases, FOB），以此作为据点为这两支少数民族武装提供资金、情报与致命武器，将他们充当代理人炮灰。伊朗军队此前一直深藏在天然山脉地道与强化掩体中，美军空中侦察难以有效摧毁。一旦边境烽烟四起，伊朗正规军将被迫离开防御工事进入开阔地平叛，美军便能趁机动用绝对空中优势实施成建制歼灭。第三步则是**彻底窒息拥有一千万人口的权力中枢德黑兰**。美军计划通过空袭发电厂瘫痪整个城市的电网，定点清除主供水水库以切断水源，并全面封锁粮食运输动脉，通过剥夺水、电、粮三大生存要素，从内部撕裂伊朗的政治中枢。 ### [35:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2147s) 双重政体与意识形态裂痕：为什么伊朗不会轻易妥协在探讨军事打击逻辑时，常规策略往往是通过摧毁向首都运送粮食的铁路等关键民生基础设施，让德黑兰等大城市的千万人口陷入缺粮、缺水、断电的生存绝境，迫使民众反对政府并倒逼政治解决。然而，这种逻辑在伊朗面前遇到了根本性的体制障碍。针对外界及特朗普此前发言中对“伊朗领导层陷入内斗、甚至不知与谁谈判”的困惑，分析指出，伊朗拥有极其罕见的双重政治架构：一方面是名义上由宗教神职人员（穆拉集团）统治的神权体制，负责掌控国家的意识形态与外交事务；另一方面则是维持国家日常行政运转的世俗官僚机器。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 伊朗双重政体与军事体系结构图 accDescr: 展示伊朗神权与世俗平行体系及其对应的军事与战略取向 subgraph Theocracy["神权体系（意识形态与对外战略）"] Mullahs["最高领袖与宗教神职阶层 (Mullahs)"] IRGC["伊斯兰革命卫队 (IRGC)"] Axis["抵抗之弧代理人 (真主党 / 胡塞武装 / 哈马斯)"] Mullahs --> IRGC IRGC --> Axis end subgraph SecularState["世俗官僚体系（行政与常规防御）"] Gov["德黑兰民事行政政府"] Artesh["正规国防军 (Artesh)"] Gov --> Artesh end IRGC -.->|"对抗'大撒旦'美帝 圣战决战到底"| War["不妥协的宗教圣战"] Gov -.->|"谋求常规博弈 寻求政治妥协停火"| Peace["外交和谈意图"] ``` 这种制度裂痕直接映射在其平行的军事体系上：国家正规军归国家管辖，而实力庞大、直接听命于穆拉的伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）则独立运作。对革命卫队而言，这场冲突绝非一场可以通过外交手段讨价还价的传统地缘博弈，而是一场旨在消灭“大撒旦”（即美利坚帝国——在他们眼中过去数十年伊朗苦难的根源）的宗教圣战。革命卫队将其视为覆盖黎巴嫩真主党、也门胡塞武装、巴勒斯坦哈马斯（以及此前叙利亚）等“抵抗之弧”的全球性对抗。尽管德黑兰的世俗政治领导层渴望尽快达成政治协议，但战场控制权却被誓死抵抗到底的革命卫队牢牢攥在手中，这使得任何表面上的停火谈判实质上都只是“逢场作戏”。 - **双重政治与军事割裂**：世俗官僚政府统领常规正规军，穆拉神职集团独掌革命卫队与核心意识形态。 - **意识形态定性**：世俗派视冲突为美伊之间的经典主权博弈，革命卫队则视其为针对“大撒旦”不可妥协的宗教决战。 - **停火协议的虚幻性**：哪怕美国在谈判桌上给予所有条件，掌控前线战局的革命卫队也绝不会轻言投降。 --- ### [38:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2326s) 马赛克防御战略：无法被“一次性停火”的分布式战争为了瓦解美军人类历史上最顶尖的情报侦察与精确“斩首行动”，伊朗革命卫队长期奉行高度去中心化的“马赛克战略”（Mosaic Strategy）。美军擅长利用压倒性的情报与监控技术锁定中央领导指挥链并将其击杀，而马赛克战略的应对之道就是将全国拆解为 31 个省份防区，各防区均建立起具备独立指挥与决策权限的本地化作战集群。换言之，伊朗在国土上构建了 31 支各自为政的独立军队，即使中央指挥神经中枢被完全切除，各省防区依然能够各自为战、抗打到底。针对这种体系，五角大楼高官彼得·海格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）曾在采访中半开玩笑地调侃称“停火令需要靠信鸽一只只飞出去传达”，以此解释为何达成停火协议后仍有伊朗导弹在空中飞行。但现实远比调侃更严酷：在马赛克战略的设计初衷里，根本不存在一套能够瞬间让这 31 处分散武装同时停火的中央协同机制。其核心逻辑就是将战争打到最后一刻，直到将美军彻底逐出中东、重创以色列为止，因此任何技术层面的停火协议在去中心化的防御网络面前都近乎失效。 - **马赛克战略构架**：伊朗全国 31 个省份各自设立拥有独立交战权与指挥体系的军事单元。 - **反斩首与反侦察逻辑**：通过彻底的分权消除单一中枢弱点，使美军无法通过击杀高级将领摧毁整体防御。 - **指挥断层与“信鸽传令”**：战时各单元独立自发攻击，缺乏收拢交火的物理控制开关，停火指令难以及时传达。 --- ### [40:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2442s) 宗教末世论与三战必然性：80% 至 90% 的爆发几率驱动这场战争走向不可控深渊的更深层动力，来自于伊朗领导层秉持的宗教“末世论”（Eschatology）世界观。在革命卫队的蓝图构想中，伊朗若要实现其最终使命，就必须取代被其视为腐败变节的沙特阿拉伯，成为伊斯兰世界的真正领袖。在他们看来，麦加与麦地那两大圣地如今长期处于美军基地的阴影笼罩之下，沙特及整个海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）均依附于“大撒旦”。因此，当前战局在伊朗眼中正是涤荡海湾腐败政客、彻底将美军逐出中东，并建立敬畏安拉之政权的绝佳天赐良机。基于这种不退反进的狂热意志，这场区域冲突升级为第三次世界大战的概率被评估为极高的“80% 到 90%”，在实际地缘推演中几乎属于确定性事件。要理解这种全球性毁灭冲突的链条如何咬合，就必须跳脱单纯的局部战场，用全局的“大战略大棋局”来审视中美俄等核心大国各自的深层死穴、进攻工具与战略野心。 - **地缘宗教诉求**：终结沙特对伊斯兰圣地的控制，驱逐中东美军，推翻所有亲美的海湾君主国。 - **三战概率判定**：冲突不可遏制地外溢升级为第三次世界大战的几率达到 80%~90%，几成定局。 --- ### [42:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2540s) 大棋局推演：美俄两大帝国的攻防架构与战略死穴为了系统剖析大国卷入全球冲突的内在动力，嘉宾借用国际象棋各子力的角色模型，对美国与俄罗斯的战略体系进行了深度解构。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 美俄地缘博弈棋盘模型 accDescr: 对比美利坚帝国与俄罗斯在王、后、主要子力及兵卒上的战略角色映射 subgraph US["美利坚帝国棋局"] US_King["王 (King)：民主制度 (优势：灵活创新；死穴：政治极化与内战风险)"] US_Queen["后 (Queen)：大战略 (打造'美洲堡垒'，在全球散播混乱并贩卖军火与资源)"] US_Pieces["车/马/象：三大进攻工具 1. 技术与制空权霸权 2. 全球美元金融结算体系 3. 主流媒体叙事与全球宣传机器"] US_Pawns["兵 (Pawns)：耗损盟友 (英国、欧洲、韩国、日本及西半球附庸)"] US_Queen --> US_Pieces US_Pieces --> US_Pawns end subgraph RU["俄罗斯帝国棋局"] RU_King["王 (King)：专制威权 (优势：果断坚决、长远规划；死穴：强人离世引发继承危机)"] RU_Queen["后 (Queen)：'第三罗马'大战略 (承继君士坦丁堡法统，凝聚并领导基督教世界)"] RU_King --> RU_Queen end ``` 在美国的棋局中： - **王（King / 政治体制）**：民主制度。其活力在于创新与弹性，但阿喀琉斯之踵是日趋不可调和的政治极化。击败美国的唯一方式并非来自外部军事占领，而是诱发两党精英阶层撕裂对抗，最终将国家推向自相残杀的内战。 - **后（Queen / 大战略）**：美国的国家防务战略核心在于构建固若金汤的“美洲堡垒”（Fortress America），同时在全球其他区域引燃冲突与混乱，从而垄断性地对外倾销美国的高价武器与资源能源。 - **攻杀子力（车、马、象 / 进攻载体）**：实现大战略的三大核心武器分别是依托高科技形成的绝对空天技术霸权、用于结算与制裁全球经济的美元金融霸权，以及控制《纽约时报》、CNN 等全球舆论声浪的宣传机器。 - **兵（Pawns / 可牺牲棋子）**：充当大战略消耗缓冲区的核心盟友阵营，包括英国、欧洲大陆、韩国、日本乃至整个西半球受其摆布的附庸国。与这一体系针锋相对的则是俄罗斯模式： - **王（政治体制）**：高度集权的专制体系（普京统治）。这种体制赋予国家惊人的战略定力、执行决断力与超长期规划视野；但其致命短板在于对核心强人的绝对依赖，一旦统治者遇刺或离世，整个帝国将立即深陷继承权内耗的崩溃危机。 - **后（大战略）**：俄罗斯深信其承担着源自历史脉络的“第三罗马”使命——在罗马帝国与拜占庭君士坦丁堡先后陨落后，莫斯科被赋予成为全球基督教文明守护者与聚合者的历史宿命，并以此构筑其向外重塑世界秩序的战略基石。 ### [47:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2840s) 俄罗斯的大战略与三大进攻维度俄罗斯的地缘核心战略直接脱胎于亚历山大·杜金（Alexander Dugin）在1997年出版的《地缘政治的基础》（*Foundations of Geopolitics*）。杜金的核心论断非常明确：俄罗斯若想击败美国，唯一的途径就是在整个欧亚大陆构建庞大的同盟网络，以此来彻底对冲并抵消美国的海上霸权与绝对制空权。这种战略思路构成了俄罗斯对抗西方体系的底色。围绕这一战略，俄罗斯拥有三大核心攻击维度。首先是无与伦比的地理纵深与恶劣地形，这使其本土几乎坚不可摧。二战时期的“巴巴罗萨行动”，德国出动六七百万军队长驱直入，最终依然在广袤的俄罗斯平原和严酷气候中折戟沉沙。其次是东正教信仰，它作为精神图腾，能够极大地凝聚并动员信徒全力支持国家机器。第三则是无可匹敌的陆军与炮兵火力。俄罗斯拥有全球顶尖的陆战部队，乌克兰战场上俄罗斯重型炮兵与无人机协同展现的毁灭性打击能力便是有力佐证。在这场博弈中，俄罗斯的基本“棋子”就是其陆军士兵——他们有着极高的人员伤亡承受力，正如前线观察所体现的，许多俄罗斯士兵拥有近乎视死如归的战斗意志，完全不惧怕为自身信念流血牺牲。 - **核心地缘思想**：亚历山大·杜金 1997 年著作《地缘政治的基础》，主张欧亚大联盟对冲美国海空霸权。 - **历史纵深参照**：二战德军六七百万人展开“巴巴罗萨行动”，依旧无法吞并俄罗斯本土。 - **主力战争工具**：重型火炮与无人机协同作战，以及具备极高伤亡承受极限的坚韧陆军。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 俄罗斯对抗美国霸权的地缘战略框架 accDescr: 展示杜金战略、三大攻击维度以及前线棋子的关系 subgraph Dugin ["亚历山大·杜金核心思想 (1997)"] D1["组建欧亚大陆战略同盟"] --> D2["抵消美国海上霸权与空中优势"] end subgraph Vectors ["俄罗斯三大进攻维度"] V1["广袤国土与极端地形 (如二战巴巴罗萨行动所见)"] V2["东正教宗教凝聚力 (动员信众支持国家战线)"] V3["世界级陆战火炮与无人机协同"] end subgraph Execution ["实操支撑力量"] P1["无惧伤亡与敢战死士的俄军步兵"] end D2 --> Vectors Vectors --> Execution ``` --- ### [49:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=2940s) 以色列的混合政体与“大以色列计划” 将目光转向以色列，其政体兼具现代民主与神权政治的特征，首都设在耶路撒冷。这种体制孕育出非凡的科技创新与创造力，但也深植着尖锐的内部撕裂——世俗化的特拉维夫与极度宗教化的耶路撒冷长期互不相容。然而，驱动其长期行动的则是名为“大以色列计划”（Greater Israel Project）的宏大构想。根据《圣经》旧约中上帝耶和华对亚伯拉罕的应许，以色列笃信从尼罗河一直到幼发拉底河之间辽阔的中东土地皆属于自己，这一野心的版图涵盖了埃及、沙特阿拉伯、黎巴嫩乃至土耳其的部分区域。为了推展这一宏图，以色列依赖着三大独特的攻击向量。首当其冲的是摩萨德（Mossad），作为全球顶尖的情报机构，它具备深层渗透并瓦解他国政治体制的惊人手段。第二个维度是庞大的全球犹太离散社群（Diaspora）。遍布世界各地的犹太商界精英与摩萨德保持着高度紧密的协作，使其在许多敏感关键节点拥有超乎寻常的政治与商业影响力。第三个维度则是借力《圣经》教义本身。在西方特别是美国，存在着大量非犹太人的“基督教锡安主义者”（Christian Zionists），他们坚信犹太人是上帝的选民，视以色列实现“大以色列计划”为神圣预言不可分割的一部分，从而在华盛顿构筑起牢不可破的政经支持网。而在技术前沿，以色列对全球IT基础设施的关键硬件掌控力，使其得以将几乎所有外部实体视为可以调遣利用的棋子。 - **地缘领土野心**：“大以色列计划”，疆界依据圣经创世记誓约自“尼罗河直达幼发拉底河”。 - **三大战略杠杆**：摩萨德深度情报渗透、全球犹太商业游说网络、美国基督教锡安主义神学动员。 - **底层技术掌控**：渗透并掌控全球 IT 关键硬件基础设施。 --- ### [51:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3107s) 伊朗的神权要塞与不对称战争网络作为棋局上的第四位玩家，伊朗是一个政教合一的什叶派神权国家。狂热的宗教信徒同样不畏惧为了信仰战死沙场。然而，这种体制的软肋在于容易疏离多数世俗民众。在伊朗，极端狂热分子仅占少数，绝大多数普通百姓只渴望安居乐业；一旦民众认定教士阶层（Mullahs）与伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）摧毁了国家的和平与繁荣，社会内部便会爆发抗议与动荡。在对外战略上，伊朗的大战略是通过什叶派力量统一并领导穆斯林世界。其拥有三项极为成熟的不对称攻击维度： 1. **代理人网络**：在中东腹地布局多年的“抵抗之弧”，包括黎巴嫩真主党、哈马斯以及也门胡塞武装； 2. **不对称破袭**：规避常规正面对抗，利用廉价但致命的无人机群和弹道导弹，对敌方重要经济目标实施不对称打击，制造最大化经济破坏； 3. **要塞级地貌**：伊朗境内崇山峻岭环绕，天然地形犹如固若金汤的堡垒，外敌常规陆路入侵近乎不可能。伊斯兰革命卫队调动的什叶派民兵组织是这场冲突的底层执行者。对于这些甘愿充当自杀式袭击者的宗教极端拥趸而言，这根本不是普通的世俗地缘争夺，而是一场不折不扣的“宗教圣战”。 --- ### [53:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3209s) 全球四强博弈棋局与美国的能源咽喉绞杀战梳理当前的世界大战棋局，各方的阵型已然明朗：俄罗斯的主力陆军与炮兵深陷乌克兰前线，其海权则寄托于约一千艘规避西方制裁的“影子舰队”（Shadow Fleet）；美国拥有全球无出其右的绝对制空权与制海权，因极度厌恶人员伤亡引发国内政治反弹而极力避免派遣地面步兵；以色列则充当美国帝国体系的强悍代理先锋，在黎巴嫩与伊拉克前线持续发力；伊朗则以自杀式无人机与导弹作为主要威慑手段。美国的终极野心并非纠缠于某一场局部代理人战争，而是要通过两步棋彻底迫使整个世界在安全和经济上全面依附于美国的武器与资源供给： 1. **封锁全球战略咽喉**：美国海军正全面扩张，不仅扼守霍尔木兹海峡，还牢牢锁住卡死东亚航道的马六甲海峡、巴拿马运河、直布罗陀海峡乃至格陵兰岛航道。 2. **毁灭全球能源供给**：凭借技术代差、绝对制空权以及无人机体系，系统性瘫痪世界各地的关键能源基础设施（如全球各地正在离奇发生爆炸的炼油厂），蓄意抽干全球原油库存。一旦全球面临巨大的能源真空，各国就不得不跪求美国提供能源供给，届时美国便能顺利成章整合西半球资源网络——重建委内瑞拉油田、收编加拿大、控制墨西哥并吞并格陵兰岛。 --- ### [56:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3373s) 影子舰队的武装冲突与美俄海上交火的前奏面对美军对海上咽喉要道的全面锁死，俄罗斯被逼入了绝境：如果海上咽喉全被截断，其赖以维持财政生命线的千艘影子舰队将被彻底废弃。俄罗斯面临两条自救路线：第一是修建横贯欧亚大陆的高铁与油气管道网络，但这在美军的绝对空优与远程无人机打击下极为脆弱；第二条路，则是别无选择地全面武装其影子舰队。这就导致了一场正在逼近的全球大洋正面对决：企图强行运送原油的俄罗斯武装化影子油轮，与受命实施搜查、扣押或击沉的美国海军驱逐舰将在远洋迎头相撞。虽然美国海军资产相比全盛时期已大幅萎缩，但由于国际市场对能源的渴求，中国极有可能出资协助俄罗斯影子舰队的军事化武装。这一设想绝非遥不可及的预言，海上战争实际上已经悄然打响。在全世界只有美俄具备独立输出武器与资源的背景下，美国要确立绝对霸权，就必须海上绞杀俄罗斯。不仅伊朗的油轮频繁在公海遭美军拦截，就在加勒比海域，美国海军与海岸警卫队早已开始对俄罗斯影子油轮下死手。早在2026年1月7日美军启动的“南矛行动”（Operation Southern Spear）中，两艘被列入制裁名单的暗色舰队油轮遭美军强行登船扣押。一艘油轮在加勒比海被美军实施拂晓突袭扣押，另一艘油轮甚至遭遇了美军自加勒比海一路狂飙追逐至北大西洋的戏剧性拦截。美军直接定性这些挂着方便旗的俄罗斯关联船只为从事非法活动的“无国籍暗色船只”，海上破袭战早已跨过了和平的门槛。 - **封锁核心动因**：全球仅美俄兼具独立出口武器与基础资源的能力，美国必须通过海上封锁斩断俄罗斯的输出网络。 - **现实既定冲突**：2026 年 1 月 7 日美军执行“南矛行动”（Operation Southern Spear），出动特战力量与海岸警卫队强行拦截扣押两艘影子油轮。 - **海空追逐战况**：一艘油轮在加勒比海晨光未至时被登船接管，另一艘油轮经历从加勒比海横跨至北大西洋的跨洋武装追击。 ### [59:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3541s) 美国对全球咽喉要道的围堵与“影子舰队”冲突美国正通过截击运送委内瑞拉、伊朗及真主党非法原油的船只，逐步收紧对全球能源运输通道的铁腕控制。这些不悬挂明确国家旗帜的油轮被称为“影子舰队”（Shadow Fleet），其背后实质上绝大部分归俄罗斯所有，旨在绕过美国建立的金融与航运监管网络在海外销售石油。针对这种拦截行为，对话指出这在本质上已经构成了战争行径。美国当前的战略并非简单孤立地拦截船只，而是通过与地峡周边的关键国家签署军事与安全合作协议，逐步在法律和地缘框架上确立对全球咽喉要道（Choke Points）的控制权——例如在控制马六甲海峡方面与印度尼西亚签署军事合作协议，在扼守直布罗陀海峡方面则与摩洛哥达成安全合作。这一布局使美国海军与俄罗斯影子舰队陷入不可调和的正面冲突。当被问及战争爆发的导火索是否会是美军直接向一艘俄罗斯船只开火时，分析指出，这种冲突不会表现为一个单一、孤立的突发闪爆点，而是一场持久蔓延的渐进过程。当前，不仅俄罗斯的海外影子油轮在公海面临围截扣押，其本土的储油设施和炼油厂也接连遭到乌克兰无人机的大规模定点袭击，莫斯科坚信这些破坏行动的幕后黑手正是北约。 - **委内瑞拉与伊朗原油制裁**：美方截获两艘涉嫌运送委内瑞拉、伊朗与黎巴嫩真主党关联原油的油轮，切断脱离美元结算体系的黑市能源链条。 - **咽喉要道法律化卡位**： - **马六甲海峡**：美国与印度尼西亚达成军事合作，封堵东亚海上能源通道。 - **直布罗陀海峡**：美国与摩洛哥建立协议，掌控大西洋进出地中海的咽喉。 - **影子舰队与本土设施双重承压**：除海外船队遭扣押外，俄罗斯本土能源设施遭受乌克兰无人机精确打击，俄方将其定性为北约支持的直接破坏行动。 --- ### [01:00:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3641s) 第三次世界大战的开端与俄伊战略同盟的必然性人类当前并非在等待某个未来的催化剂时刻，而是“已经身处第三次世界大战之中”。这场对抗注定会向外扩张为不可逆转的全球性热战，没有任何力量能够踩下刹车，因为美俄两大阵营在世界秩序理念上存在根本且不可调和的意识形态鸿沟。从俄罗斯的大战略视角来看，当今世界被塑造成“精神文明与物质堕落”的根本对决：美方推崇个人享乐主义，甚至被俄罗斯官方叙事斥为“反基督者”（Antichrist）；而俄罗斯则将自身标榜为维护人性、善意与集体主义精神共同体的灯塔。在此宏大叙事下，俄罗斯背负着拯救陷入绝境的盟友的道德义务与战略必然性。因此，俄罗斯深度卷入战争、公开站在伊朗一侧只是时间问题。这一地缘联动的关键信号已然显现：伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐（Abbas Araghchi）近期亲赴莫斯科，获得了俄罗斯总统普京的高规格当面接见。会谈中普京直接向阿拉格齐表态，称俄罗斯人民高度钦佩伊朗抵抗美国霸权的“坚定决心与毅力”。这一公开互动清晰标志着“普京已正式进入战局群聊”，预示着随着冲突加剧，莫斯科对德黑兰的直接军事与后勤援助将全面展开。 - **第三次世界大战的现状定性**：冲突已跨越临界点，世界观的根本对立使美俄对抗无法通过外交妥协解决。 - **意识形态对抗维度**：俄罗斯大战略将对抗上升至“精神/社区力量 vs 物质享乐/反基督者”的对抗高度。 - **普京与阿拉格齐的直接会晤**：莫斯科向德黑兰表达最高层级的政治支持与赞赏，为后续直接安全介入奠定基调。 --- ### [01:02:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3733s) 俄中介入如何瓦解美国绞杀伊朗的三重策略面对伊朗，美国制定了一套旨在全面摧毁其国家政权的“三叉戟”（three-pronged）扼杀战略。如果外部条件保持静态，美国凭借绝对军力确实能轻易取胜；但一旦俄罗斯正式介入，这种战略天平将被彻底颠覆。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 美军绞杀伊朗战略与欧亚大国反制方案 accDescr: 展现美军针对伊朗的三管齐下策略，以及俄罗斯与中国如何通过里海、一带一路及核保护伞对其进行破局。 subgraph US["美国绞杀战略 (Three-Pronged Strategy)"] U1["建立前沿基地 煽动伊朗境内民族分裂动乱"] U2["海上封锁航运通道 全面切断伊朗金融与能源收入"] U3["摧毁水利、粮食与电力基础设施 迫使国内民众倒戈推翻政权"] end subgraph Counter["俄中战略反制与外部支撑"] R1["里海补给线 (Caspian Sea) 俄罗斯直输粮食、淡水与电力设施"] R2["一带一路陆桥铁路 (BRI) 中国自东向西持续输送战略物资"] R3["欧亚资源背书信贷 俄中联手提供无限期战争融资"] R4["俄罗斯核保护伞 抵消美以使用战术核武器的可能"] end U1 -.->|被多民族战时动员抵消| R3 U2 -.->|内陆铁路网绕过海上封锁| R2 U3 -.->|里海水运生命线直接对冲| R1 U3 -.->|战术核威慑被彻底废除| R4 ``` 俄罗斯介入后的第一步，是利用内陆湖里海（Caspian Sea）开辟绝对安全的后勤补给大动脉。美军企图通过瘫痪水、电、粮等民生供应来瓦解伊朗社会，而俄罗斯可以通过里海航运源源不断输送战略物资。更为关键的是，俄罗斯的加入将顺理成章地将中国拉入战局：中国可以通过“一带一路”倡议（Belt and Road Initiative）成熟的内陆铁路系统，从东侧持续为德黑兰输送物资。与此同时，中俄可以向伊朗提供“无限期战争融资”，以庞大的欧亚战略资源为抵押，确保伊朗具备长期作战的经济底盘。最后也是最决定性的一点，俄罗斯能将伊朗纳入自身的“核保护伞”之下，从而彻底剥夺美以在常规战受挫时动用“战术核武器”的底牌，逼迫战事沦为旷日持久的消耗战。 - **美军扼杀伊朗的三部曲**： 1. 部署地面部队建立前沿作战基地，挑起境内少数民族冲突与暴力动荡； 2. 封锁海上主要交通线，彻底截断外贸与财政现金流； 3. 摧毁粮食、水利和电力供应等民用基础设施，迫使民众因生存危机起义推翻政府。 - **俄中联合反制的三大支柱**： - **双向内陆走廊**：北靠里海直通俄罗斯，东借“一带一路”跨国铁路联通中国，打破海空封锁。 - **主权资源背书的战时融资**：以中俄丰富的自然资源为担保，为伊朗战事提供不设上限的财政支持。 - **核保护伞威慑**：直接封杀美以动用战术核武器（Tactical Nuclear Weapons）打破僵局的最后选项。 --- ### [01:04:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3881s) 欧亚贸易走廊与俄罗斯南翼的生死防线根据俄罗斯的大战略推演，出兵保卫伊朗绝非可选的施舍，而是生死存亡的必然决断。在地理版图上，伊朗是俄罗斯高加索与中亚南翼的天然地缘屏障。一旦伊朗被美以联军征服，俄罗斯整个南部软腹部将彻底暴露在敌对势力的直接打击范围之内。目前，美国已与阿塞拜疆维持着极度密切的双边关系，并在土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦等中亚国家拥有军事基地与前沿节点。倘若美方再将伊朗收入囊中，便完成了对俄罗斯南部的地缘合围，形成自南向北实施战略突袭的完整跳板。 | 战略通道 / 地缘要素 | 地理走向与核心腹地 | 战略作用与控制权争夺 | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **国际南北运输走廊 (INSTC)** | 俄罗斯经里海、穿透伊朗全境直达波斯湾与印度洋 | 俄罗斯绕过西方制裁、进军中东与非洲市场的终极贸易大动脉 | | **一带一路中线陆桥 (BRI)** | 中国经中亚穿过伊朗延伸至中东与欧洲本土 | 规避马六甲海峡等美国制海权封锁的战略陆路大通道 | | **高加索与中亚地缘跳板** | 阿塞拜疆、土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦前沿基地群 | 美军若拿下伊朗，将与中亚基地连成一片，直接威胁俄南部腹地 | 更为要害的症结在于欧亚大陆的全球贸易动脉。面对美国全球海军封锁的唯一解法，就是由俄、中、伊三国组建横贯欧亚的封闭内陆贸易集团。俄罗斯规划的“国际南北运输走廊”（North-South Transport Corridor）必须纵贯伊朗才能抵达中东与非洲，而中国“一带一路”倡议的陆路走廊同样重度依赖伊朗的枢纽通道。一旦伊朗遭到摧毁或被亲美势力控制，俄罗斯与中国将被同时封堵在欧亚腹地深处。正是这一攸关生死的地缘与经济联结，注定美国必须将战火扩大至全球层面，以图颠覆莫斯科政权来切断伊朗的最大后盾。 - **南部软腹部暴露**：伊朗沦陷将使美军在中亚（土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦）与南高加索（阿塞拜疆）的军事存在连成一线，俄本土南大门洞开。 - **打破制海权垄断的关键走廊**：INSTC 与“一带一路”均以伊朗为中枢核心；一旦失去伊朗，欧亚陆权联盟将被彻底割裂。 - **战争升级为大国政权更迭**：随着俄罗斯成为伊朗抵御进攻的核心支柱，华盛顿的战争目标将被迫外溢至扳倒莫斯科政权本身。 --- ### [01:06:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=3983s) 中场赞助与商业洞察：Shopify 与 Pipedrive 在严谨的地缘政治推演间隙，节目播出了关于商业转化与销售流程管理的深度洞察。数据显示，长达十余年的电子商务统计表明，高达 70% 的用户将商品加入购物车后最终选择放弃购买。而私人独立研究机构 Baymard Institute 的调查发现，绝大多数电商平台无需大费周章地重塑营销策略或改进产品本身，仅仅通过简化并优化结账流程（Checkout Experience），就能实现高达 35% 的销售转化率提升。节目主播借此推荐了自身销售“1% 日记”（1% Diaries）与“对话卡”（Conversation Cards）所采用的核心底层系统 Shopify。平台整合了库存管理、跨境支付与底层数据分析，并内嵌大量 AI 工具助力企业快速上线，同时为不同规模阶段的企业提供灵活的扩展支撑。此外，作为管理着多家企业与庞大销售团队的创始人，针对销售进度失焦、交易卡点不明的痛点，主播分享了其旗下媒体公司 steven.com 长达十年的内部管理实践——全面引入智能客户关系管理系统 Pipedrive。该平台最核心的价值在于将纷繁复杂的销售漏斗转化为高度可视化的单一看板（Visual Pipeline），实时呈现每一笔订单所处的流转阶段及下一阶段跟进动作，从而彻底消除销售团队的协作黑箱与繁冗内耗。 - **结账体验与电商流失率**： - **70%** 的在线购物车最终未完成支付结算（基于 10 年以上行为数据追踪）。 - **35%** 的转化率平均提升空间，仅需依靠打磨顺畅的结账环节即可释放（Baymard Institute 数据）。 - **Shopify 优惠政策**：通过专有链接 shopify.com/bartlet 注册可享每月 1 美元的试用支持。 - **Pipedrive 销售看板核心机制**： - 服务超 100,000 家企业的高效 CRM，提供全链路可视化的实时销售管线。 - 旨在“用清晰度取代复杂性”，为用户开放为期 30 天的无须绑定信用卡免费试用体验。 ### [01:08:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4106s) 伊朗的持久战算盘与美国跨党派战略延续谈及这场冲突的时间线时，主持人指出特朗普只剩下大约三年的执政时间，因而外界或者伊朗可能会试图“耗死”特朗普，寄希望于未来几年换上新的领导班子。蒋教授随即指出，伊朗当前的政治高层确实抱有这种侥幸心理：他们指望着即将到来的中期选举，坚信如果民主党赢得中期选举就会弹劾特朗普，从而彻底限制特朗普对外用兵的能力；最差的情况，无非也就是熬到特朗普任期彻底结束。然而，蒋教授直言这一策略存在严重误判。首先，美国此前制定的《国防战略报告》（National Defense Strategy）是一套长期的国家战略框架，旨在维系美国对全球的霸权控制。特朗普或许只是用制造混乱的方式推动了这一转型，而一旦民主党重新上台，往往会将其制度化。历史早已证明了这种趋势——正如特朗普在其首个任期内挑起了针对中国的全面关税战并改变了全球对抗格局，拜登上任后不仅没有取消，反而在制度层面上将其全面巩固。因此，第三次世界大战本质上是一场漫长而残酷的消耗战，绝不可能在短时间内仓促收场。 - 伊朗高层的如意算盘：等待中期选举由民主党控制国会并发起弹劾，借此遏制总统的军事行动权。 - 战略延续性机制：总统的更迭难以逆转底层地缘战略，两党往往呈现“特朗普负责打破现状制造动荡，民主党负责接盘并将其制度化”的闭环。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 美国跨党派战略交接示意图 accDescr: 展示两党如何交替推进针对对手的地缘围堵战略 subgraph Phase1 ["战略突破阶段"] A["特朗普政府打破旧规则 挑起贸易战与地缘冲突"] end subgraph Phase2 ["制度固化阶段"] B["民主党政府接替上台 将对抗框架制度化与法制化"] end subgraph Target ["底层国家战略"] C["《国家防务战略报告》框架： 维持全球绝对主导权"] end A --> B B --> C C --> A ``` --- ### [01:10:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4220s) 最争议的预测：特朗普谋求第三个总统任期针对主持人拿出盒子里准备讨论的八项新预测，蒋教授首先抛出了其中“最具争议性的一条”——利用战时状态，特朗普将成功拿下第三个总统任期。面对主持人关于“这在宪法上难道不违法吗”的强烈质疑，蒋教授剖析道，现实世界中有些行为固然是离经叛道、危险且道德沦丧的，但并不等同于违法，特朗普完全有可能利用宪法漏洞达成目的。蒋教授提出了两种切实的操作路径：其一是政治“换头术”——2028年由其子小唐纳德·特朗普（Don Jr.）出马竞选总统，特朗普本人屈居副总统候选人搭档参选；胜选之后，小唐纳德随即宣布辞职退位，从而让副总统特朗普顺理成章登基成为总统。宪法条文中并没有明文禁止此举，虽然正常有道德的人绝不会这样做，但特朗普的行事作风毫无道德底线；其二是战争紧急状态——到2028年，随着美国陷入多线全面战争并重启全国征兵制，身具战时紧急权力的总统完全能够借国家安全之名冻结宪法、推迟大选，这正是乌克兰总统泽连斯基在战时已经实施过的剧本。在蒋教授看来，以特朗普的极度自恋与心理特质，他更偏向于第一种策略，因为由儿子竞选胜出后禅让，可以向全世界证明“美国人民依然无可救药地深爱着他”。特朗普不仅年满83岁依然每天吃麦当劳汉堡、从不锻炼，而且依然能一天连轴转出席两场五万人集会滔滔不绝，半夜不睡觉在 Truth Social 上发帖或给记者爆料内幕。对于一个终生极度渴望聚光灯与关注、认为“被世界遗忘比死亡更可怕”的政客来说，他宁可战死或老死在椭圆形办公室里，也绝不甘心退隐山林过平静日子；加之特朗普在心理上始终坚信2020年大选是民主党通过邮寄选票和作弊机器从他手中偷走的，在他眼中，眼下的任期只是在拿回欠他的账，国家还欠他一届完整的总统任期。 - 特朗普健康与精力特质：年过八旬、高热量快餐饮食、毫无传统作息规律，但对公众关注度高度上瘾。 - 执念心态：对2020年选战被“盗取”耿耿于怀，潜意识里认为夺回连任只是讨回补偿，谋求第三任期在心理层面上毫无内疚感。 --- ### [01:15:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4554s) 宪法漏洞与最高法院的博弈主持人针对第三任期的推演提出了尖锐的反驳，翻出法条指出美国宪法第二十二修正案明确规定：“任何人当选总统的次数不得超过两次。”法律界的普遍共识与第十二修正案明确要求副总统必须具备担任总统的资格，因此既然两次当选者已经丧失了当选总统的合法资格，自然在法理上也被剥夺了竞选副总统的资格。蒋教授针锋相对地解释，法律界针对第二十二修正案究竟是限制“被选举（elected）”还是限制“担任（serve）”存在巨大理论分歧。第二十二修正案字面上使用的是“不得当选”，而如果特朗普是通过出任副总统继而“继任”总统职位，文字上便存在空子可钻。一旦双方产生宪法诉讼纠纷，案件最终必将直接上诉至最高法院裁决。而当下最高法院牢牢掌握在保守派手中，九位大法官中有三位是由特朗普亲自提名的，甚至年内还可能增加第四位，在保守派绝对多数的司法背景下，最高法院最终的自由裁量极有可能倒向特朗普。 - 法律争点：宪法第二十二修正案原文禁止“当选（be elected）”两次，未严词杜绝非选举途径（如继任、任命）而“就职（serve）”的情形。 - 司法裁判权：两党争议必将移交最高法院终审，特朗普一手奠定的保守派法官优势将成为其最坚固的法律护城河。 --- ### [01:17:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4637s) 中美“大妥协”：避免正面对决的地缘大交易蒋教授公布了他的第二个核心预测：中美之间不会如外界鼓吹的那样爆发惨烈热战，反而会达成一项载入史册的“地缘大妥协”（Grand Bargain）。虽然全球智库和主流舆论普遍预测中美迟早会因台湾问题擦枪走火，并认定中国试图正面挑战并取代美国的全球霸权，但蒋教授反驳称，中国根本没有取而代之的意图。充当全球霸权需要将浩瀚的国力与财政资源消耗在无休止的海外战争中，从而拖垮整个国家的经济底子，中国对陷入这种泥潭毫无兴趣。中国的真实策略是汲取冷战时期的非结盟智慧，在美俄之间展开高超的“大三角战略平衡”（Triangulate）。中国既可以在暗中向伊朗提供援助、为俄罗斯提供财政输血，但同时也会积极与美国达成实质性的利益交换。蒋教授披露，中美高层今年计划举行三到四次首脑会晤，首场会晤将于五月中旬在北京拉开帷幕，正式启动这一互利共赢的谈判进程。在这场世纪交易中，双方的核心筹码十分清晰：美国迫切需要中国继续购买美债来填补其庞大的财政赤字窟窿，而中国则需要确保来自西半球的稳定能源资源供应，并维持对庞大美国国内消费市场的准入通道。 - 大国三角再平衡：重演冷战非结盟博弈，中国避免直接下场对抗，在维持与俄伊战略协作的同时与白宫展开务实经贸捆绑。 - 世纪大妥协的核心诉求： - 美方诉求：中国持续注资购买美国国债，支撑岌岌可危的美元债务闭环。 - 中方诉求：西半球能源进口通道的安全性，以及保障中国高端制造进入美国消费市场的商业准入权。 ### [01:19:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4749s) 中美交易与超然局外：大国对抗中的第三方平衡中美两国在经济和市场上存在着极深的相互依存关系，因此双方完全没有理由不能达成一项互利共赢的交易。唐纳德·特朗普本质上是一个极其讲求利益交换的“交易型”人物，这种商人特质将深刻影响未来的国际大局。当主持人追问这对全球究竟意味着什么时，江教授明确指出，这意味着中国在实质意义上并不会卷入这场世界大战的战火之中。中国将选择保持一种游刃有余的超然姿态，既不与俄罗斯决裂，也不与美国直接开战，而是在美俄两国彼此对抗撕裂的过程中，同时与双方维系务实的往来，从而在大国博弈的棋盘上成为独立于火线之外的第三方赢家。 ### [01:19:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4783s) 伊朗“持久战”借口与美国重启自动兵役登记江教授拿出的下一个重磅预测直击美国内政与军事的核心：伊朗将成为美国的另一场“无休止的持久战（Forever War）”，而美国将为此在本土推行全国征兵制。许多人未能洞察美国深层战略的逻辑本质，误以为美国的目标是彻底摧毁伊朗政权。事实上，伊朗是否被打败根本不是美国大战略的真正目的所在；伊朗当下的冲突只是美国名正言顺向外扩张、在全球各大关键海上咽喉要道（choke points）确立军事控制，并强迫全球市场购买美国本土能源的最佳借口。这场长期持续的冲突能够为美国的能源垄断和地缘海权带来难以估量的利益，因此美国不仅不会迅速结束它，反而有充分动机让其演变为一场长达数十年的消耗战。为了维持如此庞大且漫长的海外消耗战，单纯依靠高科技空袭和精锐雇佣兵远远不够，战线上需要源源不断的地面部队进驻。这就是全国征兵制势在必行的根本动力。针对主持人的疑惑，江教授解释道，大多数人并不知道美国其实一直保留着兵役登记系统（Selective Service），只是长期以来执行宽松，即便年轻人不去登记也鲜有人过问。然而从当年十二月起，只要是年满18至24岁的美国男性公民，都将被自动纳入全国兵役征召库。虽然系统采取的是抽签制（lottery system），且宪法理论上仍需要国会先正式宣战，但新法案的通过意味着自动化登记的齿轮已经咬合，随时准备在国家紧急状态下为长达十几、二十年的海外战局强制抽调适龄青年。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 美国伊朗持久战战略与征兵逻辑链 accDescr: 展示美国利用伊朗冲突控制全球能源通道并最终引发国内自动征兵的因果链条 subgraph 地缘战略诉求 A["借伊朗战争建立地缘借口"] --> B["封锁与掌控全球海上咽喉"] B --> C["迫使全球采购美国能源"] end subgraph 军事维持代价 C --> D["长期维持海外战局"] D --> E["庞大陆军地面部队缺口"] E --> F["启动18-24岁男性自动兵役登记"] end ``` - 核心地缘动机：伊朗战事的核心不在于速胜，而在于构建全球海上咽喉控制权与锁定美国能源出口市场。 - 征兵机制变化：通过新法案确立年满 18 至 24 岁适龄男性“自动纳入征兵登记系统”，改变越战之后松弛的自愿/手动登记状态。 - 法律与实操程序：虽然最终大规模抽签派往战场前必须经由国会正式对外宣战，但人员名册的数据架构已在法律层面前置就绪。 ### [01:22:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=4938s) 全球迈向 AI 监控社会：数字身份与行为算法控制随后抽出的预测指向了更为阴郁的社会图景：全球各大社会将不可逆转地滑向“AI 监控国家”。随着 OpenAI、Anthropic 等前沿科技巨头纷纷与政府军方及情报系统签订监控与军事项目，普通人的生存处境将发生翻天覆地的转变。这种新型监控主要依托两大技术支柱：数字身份（Digital ID）与数字法币（Digital Currency）。一旦这两项系统落地，政府便掌握了实时追踪每个公民所有线上足迹与金融往来的权力。国家甚至能够直接对公民的银行账户进行“底层代码化编程”，从物理层面上禁止特定人群购买香烟、药物或任何非合规物品。江教授直言，这种全景敞视机制在某些地区早已化为现实，正是因为身处这种环境，他对其运作机制了如指掌。在全数字化管控下，开设银行账户、移动电子支付、实名电话卡绑定等一切社会活动都必须强行锚定唯一的数字身份。海量消费习惯与日常交互数据汇入国家级算法数据库后，AI 就能精确反推个人的性格画像、心理状态与意识形态偏好，并据此设计出一套精准的激励与惩罚机制来诱导和规制大众行为。在统治者的逻辑中，这种严密监控被冠以“社会进步”的道德光环——系统自称是在帮你戒除恶习、减肥塑身、努力工作并实现所谓的人生价值。当被问及公开发表这些批评言论是否会带来危险时，江教授透露了自己的生存哲学：他刻意游走在监管的灰色地带，彻底脱离当地互联网生态，全盘使用英文输出，专注于西方受众，坚决不在本土媒体和公众视野中建立任何知名度，因为“一旦你在本土具备了巨大影响力，权力就必然会利用你、掌控你，借你的声音去操纵更多人”。 - 监控国家核心机制：由“数字身份（Digital ID）”和“可编程数字货币（Digital Currency）”组成闭环，实现交易权限与资产使用的完全代码化。 - 算法预测路径：消费与行为轨迹 $\rightarrow$ 推导思维心理 $\rightarrow$ 构建差异化社会奖惩机制 $\rightarrow$ 引导与重塑个体行为。 - 自我保护策略：彻底避开本地社交平台与媒体生态，不产生任何本土公共影响力，以避免成为算法与权力规训工具的传声筒。 ### [01:25:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5141s) “大以色列计划”与中东权力的全面重构紧接着的预测聚焦于中东核心地带的领土版图变迁：以色列将彻底实现“大以色列计划（Greater Israel Project）”。江教授语出惊人地表示，从实际控制力而言，以色列几乎已经横扫并事实征服了中东周边，目前横亘在其绝对霸权之路上的唯一障碍反而是美国在该地区的驻留与牵制。一旦美国像他预测的那样最终从针对伊朗的泥潭中抽身撤离中东，以色列将顺理成章地接管、吸纳美军中央司令部（CENTCOM）在该区域遗留下来的庞大军事基地与战略设施，整个中东再没有任何单一政权能够抵挡以色列的绝对军事优势。以色列当前正在积极设法拉长战线、将战争周期拖至极限，因为以色列领导层将这场大动荡视作一举扫除中东所有宿敌的历史窗口。在重创伊朗、使沙特阿拉伯及海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）陷入深重安全危机的连锁反应后，以色列锁定的下一个主要对手正是土耳其。只要土耳其最终也被卷入冲突旋涡，宏大的地缘重塑就将彻底完成。所谓的“大以色列计划”绝非狭隘的加沙或约旦河西岸之争，而是一幅从埃及尼罗河一路绵延至伊拉克幼发拉底河的巨幅帝国蓝图：其范围横跨土耳其南部部分区域、叙利亚全境、黎巴嫩全境、约旦全境，并深入沙特阿拉伯腹地，甚至包括麦加与麦地那两大伊斯兰教核心圣地。 ### [01:27:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5255s) 争夺黑海命脉：俄乌冲突终局与敖德萨之战在欧洲战场方向，江教授给出的预测是：北约与俄罗斯将围绕黑海门户敖德萨（Odessa）展开最决绝的终极争夺。回顾当下的乌克兰前线，俄罗斯目前的军事重心集中在掌控顿巴斯等乌克兰东部地区。这一布局有其深刻的历史和经济逻辑：乌东在历史上长期与俄罗斯同根同源，当地民众多数讲俄语且属于俄罗斯族；更关键的是，顿巴斯是整个乌克兰最核心的重工业与农业心脏地带。一旦俄罗斯将乌东彻底收入囊中，失去工业与粮仓的乌克兰西部在战略上就将退化为一个无足轻重的“残存国家（rump state）”，失去自持与对抗的能力。而完成这一地缘绝杀拼图的最后一把关键钥匙，正是扼守黑海航线的敖德萨。作为乌克兰仅存的最关键出海深水港口，一旦敖德萨落入俄军之手，乌克兰将彻底沦为内陆国，黑海的主导权将全盘被莫斯科牢牢接管。正因如此，北约高层也极其清醒地意识到，敖德萨不仅是一座港口城市，更是整场战争的战略死穴——如果敖德萨最终失守被俄军控制，乌克兰对抗的战略根基便荡然无存，俄乌战争将以俄罗斯达成其全部核心战略诉求而宣告彻底终结。 ### [01:29:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5340s) 夺取敖德萨与掌控全球粮食命脉对话延续了对俄乌战争终局的研判。江教授解释道，俄罗斯在夺取敖德萨后绝不会也不需要继续向乌克兰腹地推进。主持人随即发问：“拿下敖德萨对俄罗斯究竟意味着什么？”江教授指出，一旦俄罗斯完全掌控敖德萨，就相当于直接掌控了全球整整三分之一的碳水化合物（粮食）供给。这意味着，只要俄罗斯愿意，非洲和中东随时可能面临大范围饥荒。非洲与中东等地区根本无法实现粮食自给自足，极端依赖化肥与外部粮食进口，而俄罗斯与乌克兰正是这些地区主要的粮食供应国。俄罗斯利用黑海港口将粮食运往世界各地，夺取敖德萨意味着牢牢扼住了这一关键命脉。 - **粮食话语权**：控制敖德萨使俄罗斯掌握全球 1/3 的碳水化合物与粮食运输通道。 - **地缘施压杠杆**：非洲和中东的粮食与化肥严重依赖俄乌出口，俄罗斯可通过断供直接制造区域性人道与政治危机。 --- ### [01:29:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5388s) 东亚的三大摩擦源：台湾、马六甲与朝鲜主持人希望听一个稍微乐观点的最终预测，但江教授坦言最后一个预测同样严峻：东亚即将爆发大规模冲突。在探讨完中东与欧洲之后，全球博弈的重心将转移至东亚。江教授认为该区域存在三大极其危险的摩擦源与潜在导火索。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 东亚三大地缘政治冲突导火索 accDescr: 展示东亚三大摩擦源及其战略驱动因素的图表 subgraph EastAsia["东亚三大摩擦源"] FP1["第一导火索：台湾问题"] FP2["第二导火索：马六甲海峡"] FP3["第三导火索：朝鲜半岛勒索"] end FP1 --> JP["日本海上生命线受阻： 缺乏本土资源，视台湾为核心战略利益"] FP2 --> ML["中美海权扼喉之争： 美国欲封锁水道，中国视其为经济命脉"] FP3 --> NK["博弈论下的敲诈套现： 美军资源外调中东，平壤借火炮威慑首尔"] ``` 第一大导火索是台湾问题。中国大陆始终将台湾视为不可分割的一部分并致力于完成统一；但日本政界（如高市早苗等人）已明确表态“台湾是日本核心战略利益的一部分”。日本本土极度匮乏自然资源，作为一个高度依赖海外原材料的制造业强国，若两岸统一，中国将能够有效切断日本前往马六甲海峡以及南中国海丰富油气和矿产资源的通道。即便主持人质疑“中国如此强大，能否直接击溃日本”，江教授仍强调，由于一旦失去东南亚通道日本的生存根基便不复存在，日本将别无选择、拼死一战以阻止统一。第二大导火索是马六甲海峡。美国极力想要掌控马六甲海峡来遏制中国，而中国深知马六甲海峡是自身经济运行的咽喉，中美围绕这一水道控制权的角力不可避免。第三大导火索——也是最具突发性、最紧迫的——则是朝鲜。 --- ### [01:32:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5557s) 朝鲜半岛博弈论：对首尔的勒索与驻韩美军空虚从纯粹的博弈论视角分析朝鲜最高领导人的处境：朝鲜是一个贫穷且实行个人崇拜的专制国家，但当全球陷入多方混战时，局势完全逆转。彼时欧洲正与俄罗斯激战，中东烈火熊熊，美国正竭尽全力在各地维持摇摇欲坠的霸权，日中两国则在南海剑拔弩张。江教授用了一个生动的比喻：朝鲜就像“高中里那个平时无人问津的街头混混”，当学校里的壮汉们彼此大打出手、自顾不暇时，这个混混就可以走进来主宰整座学校。朝鲜下手的目标就是韩国首尔。从人口分布看，首尔聚集了韩国绝大部分人口与财富，然而首尔距离朝韩分界线仅约20分钟的炮程。只需20分钟，朝鲜漫天的炮火就足以将首尔夷为平地。面对主持人关于“韩国会否还击”的疑问，江教授剖析了两者极不对称的心态与防御真空： - **防空体系被抽调**：保护韩国的驻韩美军正急于将包括萨德（THAAD）反导系统在内的大量火炮与武器装备运往中东，以填补中东战场的黑洞。美国正在残酷地“同类相食”（cannibalizing），牺牲日韩的防卫力量来维持中东战事。 - **无法防御的近程炮击**：传统的反导系统根本无法拦截铺天盖地、持续不断的饱和火炮打击。 - **贫困对富裕的降维威胁**：朝鲜民众深处赤贫、不惧死亡，甚至已有成千上万朝鲜士兵被派往乌克兰前线为俄罗斯卖命，且作战至死（因为被俘将导致国内家属遭株连）；相反，韩国人富裕、习惯了民主与个人权利，极其珍惜生命与财富。 - **敲诈而非毁灭**：朝鲜真正的目标不是彻底消灭韩国，而是纯粹的“勒索”（extortion）。只要金正恩摆出开火抹平首尔的姿态，对习惯了和平富足的韩国社会而言，最快捷、最廉价的选择就是掏钱行贿，花钱买平安。“这就像从婴儿手里抢糖吃一样简单。” --- ### [01:35:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5746s) 帝国崩塌与青铜时代崩溃重演：普通人如何求生当主持人问及这一切对每天忙于工作、照顾家庭的普通老百姓意味着什么时，江教授给出了极为深邃的社会学预警。他指出，随着美帝国的崩溃，现存的单极世界秩序瓦解，并且没有任何一个大国能够全盘接替美国的位置。历史最恰当的参照物是发生于3000多年前的地中海“青铜时代崩溃”（Bronze Age collapse）。当时迈锡尼希腊、安纳托利亚的赫梯帝国、美索不达米亚以及古埃及等高度繁荣的定居文明，遭遇了一场完美的灾难风暴：地震、饥荒、气候突变、对外战争、内战与革命同时爆发。这导致大批吃不上饭的饥民组成所谓的“海上民族”（Sea Peoples），化身庞大的海盗与难民军队席卷整个中东，摧毁了所有既定文明。江教授警告，未来世界将再次上演这一幕： - **难民潮取代传统战争成为核心威胁**：未来的全球核心危机将不再仅仅是正规军队的交火，而是数以千万计、因缺粮断水而被迫背井离乡的饥饿难民，他们将从非洲、中东乃至南美洲蜂拥涌入发达社会。全球化肥与粮食供应链的断裂将加速这一惨状。 - **基础设施与社区自救**：帝国瓦解必然伴随电网、供水等现代基础设施的大崩溃。面对可能到来的大停电与断水，普通人最需要的不是孤立恐慌，而是涌现出草根层面的“创业型领袖”与社区带头人。 - **邻里守望相助**：最能生存下去的人，是那些敢于在停电缺水时敲开邻居的门、将整栋公寓楼上百人组织起来开会的人。只有社区重新凝聚成同舟共济的大家庭，汇集众人的智慧与力量，才能在秩序崩塌的乱世中找到水源、维系生存并重建社会。 ### [01:39:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5976s) 化肥危机与技术丰裕的幻觉姜教授指出了一个残酷的现实：目前全球有 80 亿人口，但在失去化肥的情况下，地球的土地最多只能养活 20 亿人。剩下的 60 亿人绝不会坐以待毙地活活饿死，他们必然会掀起席卷全球的大规模移民浪潮，到处寻找食物，从而引发一场毁灭性的全球危机。面对这一预测，许多技术乐观主义者可能会反驳，认为随着人工智能（AI）和机器人技术的兴起，生产成本将大幅下降。正如埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）所描绘的“丰裕时代”（Age of Abundance）那样，科技将解决一切匮乏。但姜教授直截了当地击碎了这种幻想：“粮食必须从地里长出来。人类使用化肥是为了将土地的生产潜能发挥到极致。一旦失去化肥，你哪怕拥有再多的机器人也无济于事——机器人不需要吃东西，但人类必须吃东西。” - 全球人口承载力对比：现代农业（依靠化肥）可养活约 80 亿人；失去化肥后，地球土地最多仅能维持 20 亿人生存。 - 潜在灾难链条：60 亿面临饥饿的人口将被迫外迁求生，引发前所未有的全球大迁徙与地缘政治动荡。 - 对技术狂想的驳斥：AI 与自动化无法凭空替代农作物依赖土壤和化肥的基本生物规律。 ### [01:40:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6023s) 人类的惰性与危机中的韧性当主持人问姜教授既然描绘了如此严峻的前景，内心是否还抱有希望时，姜教授给出了非常肯定的回答。他坚信人类本质上具有非凡的创造力与韧性。然而在和平时期，这些潜能往往陷入沉睡，因为人类太容易变得安于现状。姜教授毫不留情地批评道：“西方生活方式让我们变得极其懒惰和肥胖。”但他也深信，一旦危机真正来临，当人们发现自己的家庭陷入危险境地的那一刻，大家就会迅速凝聚在一起，激发出令人惊叹的想象力与行动力，从而重塑并建设一个更加美好的社会。 ### [01:41:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6068s) 节目插播：CEO 日记核心圈招募主持人史蒂文·巴特利特（Steven Bartlett）插播了一则独家招募通知，宣布面向听众推出名为“CEO 日记核心圈”（Diary of a CEO Inner Circle）的全新私密社群。该社群首批仅开放 10,000 个名额，加入的成员将享有直接与主持人互动的特权，参与决定访谈嘉宾与话题讨论方向，并能获取从未公开过的录制剪辑、未播出的对谈、节目录制时的随堂简报以及幕后花絮内容。 ### [01:42:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6121s) 柏拉图洞穴寓言与现实的本质回到对谈后，主持人询问在尚未涉及的话题中，最重要的一点是什么。姜教授由此切入了一个更为深邃的哲学议题——“现实的本质”（The nature of reality）。为了剖析这一议题，他借用了柏拉图在古希腊传世名著《理想国》（The Republic）中著名的“洞穴寓言”（Allegory of the Cave）。姜教授让听众想象一个巨大而幽暗的洞穴：成千上万的人被长链锁在地上，他们的脖子被牢牢箍住，无法转头，只能目不转睛地面向前方的一堵巨大石壁。在他们的身后，有一团巨大的火堆正在燃烧；在火堆旁，有一些身份不明的操纵者手持各种木偶，借助火光将木偶的倒影投射在囚徒面前的石壁上。被束缚的囚徒们自幼目睹这些摇曳的阴影，便天真地以为阴影就是整个世界与真实的全部。围绕这些倒影，囚徒们开始发展出解释现实的一整套叙事体系：他们创造语言为不同的阴影命名，推演阴影的成因，甚至诞生了宗教神学。随后，社会分工随之演化出来——祭司负责阐释阴影背后的神圣含义，诗人歌颂阴影的优美，教师则把关于阴影的知识代代相传给孩子。天长日久，所有人对这套虚构的现实产生了强烈的成瘾与依恋。此时如果有人站出来揭露真相说：“朋友们，为什么不回头看看？这一切不过是一场骗局！”愤怒的囚徒们不仅不会感激，反而会将这个说真话的人残忍杀害。为了说明这种心理成瘾机制，姜教授幽默地拿韩剧打比方：一部动辄上百集的韩剧，前十个小时你可能会觉得剧情荒谬透顶、令人反感；但看到第二十个小时，你往往深陷其中无法自拔。人类所身处的现实亦是如此——尽管它只是一部荒唐虚构的戏剧，但一旦沉溺过深，人们便会主动渴望它是真的。姜教授强调：“创造这种现实的，其实并不是那些掌权者，而是我们自身的想象力。神经科学家早已证实，我们所感知的一切，本质上都是大脑的大脑幻觉（Hallucination）。” ### [01:45:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6353s) 现代权力结构：谁在投射洞穴之墙上的阴影姜教授将柏拉图的洞穴隐喻投射到现代全球统治秩序中，层层解构了掌控人类认知的金字塔体系。他指出，我们习以为常的世界并非自然形成，而是由一套精密运转的机制自上而下层层构建的： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 现代洞穴统治结构图 accDescr: 展示从暴力锁链、金融操纵、经济表象、叙事媒介到内心内化的现代权力层级 subgraph PowerAndRules ["核心控制层"] L1["暴力锁链：美帝国与军工复合体"] L2["火光与木偶人：国际清算银行 / 华尔街 / 联储系统"] end subgraph GlobalFaçade ["游戏与制度假象"] L3["游戏舞台：全球经济体系"] L4["中立面具：世行 / 联合国 / 世贸组织"] end subgraph PerceptionAndMind ["认知投射与意识内化"] L5["影子布道者：主流媒体 / 好莱坞文化 / 学校教育"] L6["内化的枷锁：价值观 / 社会习俗 / 法律体系"] end L1 --> L2 L2 --> L3 L3 --> L4 L4 --> L5 L5 --> L6 ``` - **第一层（束缚的锁链）**：美帝国与其军工复合体（Military-Industrial Complex），充当强制将全人类锁在固定位置上的物质与暴力基石。 - **第二层（火光旁的操盘手）**：真正的金融精英集团，即位于瑞士巴塞尔的国际清算银行（BIS）、主导国际清算的 SWIFT 系统、华尔街、伦敦金融城，以及掌握货币印制大权的美国联邦储备系统（Federal Reserve）。他们制定全球财富游戏规则并操控火光与投影。 - **第三层（投射出的游戏）**：全球经济体系本身，这是一套笼罩一切生产与消费活动的庞大结构。 - **第四层（公正的中介外衣）**：为了掩盖幕后黑手，系统设立了世界银行（World Bank）、联合国（UN）、世界贸易组织（WTO）等多边机构，诱导大众相信整个国际经济秩序是在客观、中立、旨在造福人类的前提下运转的。 - **第五层（阴影的诠释与传播者）**：主流媒体、好莱坞电影工业和学校教育系统。这些角色本身也是囚徒，但成为了囚徒中的意见领袖，专门向大众灌输并解释墙上的阴影。 - **第六层（内化的规范与秩序）**：被人们完全内化并奉为圭臬的价值观、道德规范、生活风俗习惯与法律制度，用来判定善恶是非与合法非法。在这套剖析中，主持人史蒂文·巴特利特追问：“那我算媒体吗？难道我也是在火堆旁操控叙事的人？可我并没有被任何人掌控啊。”姜教授尖锐地反问他：“你想赚钱吗？”主持人承认后，姜教授直言：“只要你想赚钱，他们就控制着你，因为他们掌控着货币的发行与创造。” 姜教授最后指出，这套控制机制最诡谲之处在于它在人们脑海中完成了致命的倒置：大众普遍本末倒置地认为，人类社会的基石是法律、道德与价值观；但事实上在现实深处，这些表面文明规范只不过是底层暴力机器与金融精英为了维系既得秩序而投射出的幻影。 ### [01:50:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6602s) 摇摇欲坠的投影大厦：审查制度、觉醒政治与既得利益防线人类所栖居的社会制度与文明秩序，归根结底只是集体想象的产物。这套由制度与共识构筑的体系极其脆弱，是一座极度敏感精密的宏伟大厦；一旦有人拒绝配合、不再遵守既定的游戏规则，整座大厦就会面临分崩离析的危险。然而，理解当代世界最核心的关键在于观察这一体系的动摇过程——当年轻一代在成长过程中开始审视眼前的现实，并发出疑问：“墙上的这些影子真的是真的吗？它们对我来说毫无真实感”，整套系统便会感知到存在性危机。当公众不再自发信奉既定叙事时，为了防止大厦坍塌，系统必然会走向威权主义（authoritarian），通过强制手段逼迫人们去服从他们原本拒绝接受的东西。这种机制直接解释了当下独立媒体与主流权力结构之间的尖锐摩擦。独立媒体与播客的兴起让越来越多人开始公开解构社会运转的底层逻辑，指着投影直言“这些影子全都是假的”。这种质疑一旦形成连锁反应，便会彻底瓦解大众对墙壁投影的笃信，而这是统治秩序绝对无法容忍的。因此，各种严密的维稳控制手段应运而生：从言论审查（censorship）、封禁与剥夺发声渠道（deplatforming），到大行其道的“觉醒政治”（woke politics）与 DEI（多元、平等与包容）政策，其实质都是体系为了维持稳定而祭出的强制执行机制。面对独立创作者被主流排斥的现状，这并非源于某个单一反派的恶意策划，而是一种符合人性的利益自保本能。在庞大的官僚与社会系统中，“没有人是真正的幕后黑手，也没有人是纯粹的恶棍”（no one is really in charge, and no one's a villain），每个人都只是在这个体系中长大并本能地守护着属于自己的切身利益。正如昔日传统主流媒体对马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）及 Facebook 掀起围剿，根源仅在于 Google 和 Facebook 吞噬了全市场百分之七八十的广告营收。面对赖以生存的基本盘被新技术打破，既得利益阶层的恐慌与反扑完全是可以预见的自然反应。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 叙事控制与社会崩溃的动态循环 accDescr: 展示集体想象叙事动摇时，系统如何从觉醒危机走向威权控制及最终崩溃重建 subgraph NarrativeCollapse["第一阶段：叙事动摇与反抗"] A["集体想象构建的社会共识\n（柏拉图洞穴之影）"] --> B["年轻一代觉醒\n（'影子不再真实，我们在被欺骗'）"] B --> C["独立媒体质疑主流体系\n（打破认知壁垒）"] end subgraph AuthoritarianReaction["第二阶段：体制防御与强制维稳"] C --> D["体系感知崩溃危机\n（既得利益自保防线）"] D --> E["威权主义强化执行机制\n（言论审查 / 封号封杀 / 觉醒与DEI叙事）"] end subgraph ShiftAndReset["第三阶段：现实争夺与历史循环"] E --> F["权力和技术的现实争夺战\n（华尔街银行家 vs 硅谷科技巨头/AI Stargate）"] F --> G["过度扩张与债务危机导致帝国崩解\n（文明生命周期的必然规律）"] end ``` --- ### [01:52:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6737s) 现实本质的争夺战：华尔街资本、硅谷巨头与“星门计划” 随着时间推移，越来越多看穿虚幻影子的年轻人将拒绝接受既有的谎言，这不可避免地为推翻旧秩序、确立新文明范式提供了历史性契机，而人工智能（AI）正是在这一交汇点上扮演着决定性角色。对于普通公众而言，承认自己一生所珍视和依赖的核心价值、世界观不过是建立在一堆虚构的故事之上，是一件极其痛苦且难以接受的事。但正如尤瓦尔·赫拉利在《人类简史》（*Sapiens*）中所阐述的，智人之所以能够战胜其他物种建立庞大文明，正是因为人类具备相信虚构故事的独特能力——猩猩无法理解金钱、政府或宗教，而人类却被一整套层层堆叠的虚构叙事牢牢锚定在社会秩序中，才不至于毫无顾忌地在街头裸奔或肆意破坏。然而，当人们开始追问“能否打破现状，构建一个让所有人受益的新现实”时，现实的冷酷阻力便暴露无遗。既得利益集团绝不会主动让渡既得结构，这也是全球各地战争频发的深层根源。当今世界的冲突早已超越了单纯的民族国家边界争端，而是升级为一场**争夺现实本质定义权的战争**。最典型的博弈就发生在华尔街的传统金融巨头（bankers）与硅谷的新兴科技精英（tech bros）之间。长期以来控制美国命脉的华尔街资本，如今正在遭遇特朗普浪潮与科技权贵的强力冲击： - 以彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）旗下的 Palantir 为代表的国防科技新贵； - 甲骨文创始人拉里·埃里森（Larry Ellison）与 OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）等科技巨头； - 这些科技领袖联合推动以“星门计划”（Operation Stargate）为代表的超级 AI 基础设施，其终极目标在于夺取对全人类想象力与认知边界的绝对控制权。然而，无论这些技术寡头构建的控制结构在初期看起来多么牢不可破，它最终也注定难逃覆灭的宿命。这并非偶然，而是贯穿整个人类历史的客观规律：一切看似稳固的权力与帝国结构，最终都将不可避免地走向周期性的崩溃。 --- ### [01:54:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6896s) 帝国衰落的必然周期与赫尔墨斯哲学的向内救赎正如桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）所剖析的历史周期律，人类帝国与文明秩序的起落有着恒定的节奏。纵观历史，帝国的生命周期大约在两百余年左右，而当下的美国正处于其霸权无可挽回的黄昏阶段。历史上所有帝国的衰亡都遵循着惊人一致的病理学特征： - 无法承受的**巨额债务**（too much debt）； - 根深蒂固且系统性的**内部腐败**（too much corruption）； - 走向极端的**贫富不均**（too much inequality）。德国历史哲学家奥斯瓦尔德·斯宾格勒（Oswald Spengler）在其著作中指出，人类文明如同自然界中的生物有机体，必然经历从诞生、成长、鼎盛到衰落、死亡的自然生命历程。这种帝国的代谢并不可怕，它反而是推动人类文明持续创新与迭代的必要过程。鉴于美国目前在全球范围内的过度扩张（overstretched）、债台高筑，并在地缘博弈中激怒乃至团结了几乎整个对抗阵营，美利坚帝国的崩溃有极高概率将在未来的 5 到 10 年内发生，几乎每一个当代人都将在有生之年亲眼目睹这一巨变。面对如此宏大且不可逆转的历史崩塌，普通个体究竟应当如何立足与自处？答案应当从支撑柏拉图洞穴寓言的古埃及**赫尔墨斯哲学**（Hermetic Philosophy）中汲取智慧。赫尔墨斯哲学的核心法则揭示： - **现实的本质是能量与振动**（reality is energy, is vibrations）：人们所感知的物质世界不过是能量交互的表象沉淀，真正的终极现实是意识本身。 - **肉体只是体验的临时载具**：思想才是真实的，肉体只是灵魂在物质世界中获取体验的工具；死亡不过是灵魂脱离物质束缚、回归本源（the source）的必经节点，灵魂之所以降临尘世，是为了经历在纯精神界无法体验的物质历练。 - **“如其在上，如其在下”（As above, so below; as below, so above）**：每个人都是造物神性的一处全息分形（fractals of God）。如果个体将所有精力聚焦于宏观层面的战争与崩坏，只会陷入无尽的虚无与绝望；如果将精力耗费在钻研如何转移资产谋取暴利上，在系统性的洪流面前也将无济于事。个体对抗历史绝境的真正解法，不在于妄图以血肉之躯阻挡文明周期的战火，而在于将注意力拉回内心与周围的微观世界。专注于如何让自己成为一个更完善、更有创造力的人，善待并积极影响身边的每一个同伴。当每一个神性的分形选择散发良善而非恶念，这种微观的振动便会真实地映射到宏观宇宙的现实之中——唯有通过每天在具体的行动中把善意带给周围的人，个体才能在混乱崩解的时代里真正改变世界。 ### [01:59:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7178s) 意识的分形与卡巴拉神学对中东局势的隐喻史蒂芬·巴特利特分享了自己与多位物理学家交流时产生的一个深刻感悟：整个宇宙的意识仿佛分裂成了无数微小的“分形”（fractals），以此来切身体验并观察这个世界。他回忆起前不久在欧洲某国乘坐出租车时的经历，透过车窗，他看到海边伫立着成群的游客，每个人都在抬头张望，有的凝视远山，有的注视波涛，有的低头看着地面。在那一瞬间，他突然觉得这些游客就像是意识为了探索世界而具象化出的微小碎片，这种视角让他感受到了莫大的同理心。江教授对此深表赞同，并随即引入了犹太神秘主义“卡巴拉”（Kabbalah）中的“生命之树”（Tree of Life）体系来剖析人类事务的运行动力。他解释道，整个世界的发展遵循着“正题、反题、合题”（thesis, antithesis, synthesis）的辩证规律：上帝代表纯粹的“给予之意愿”，创造了代表“接受之意愿”的原始人（Adam Kadmon）；原始人最终背弃上帝，导致了世界的破碎与毁灭；然而正是在毁灭之中，人类后代才真正认清自身的愚昧，痛哭乞求上帝的原谅，进而促成世界的救赎与重组（Tikkun Olam）。江教授指出，这套末世救赎逻辑正是当今中东地缘冲突深处的一大思想驱动力。以色列的一些深层宗教狂热力量之所以采取一系列激进行动，实质上是在试图“强行迫使上帝出手”（force the hand of God）。在他们的神学叙事中，如果以色列在中东挑起全面冲突甚至招致全球围攻，以色列就会被打入绝境并彻底放下狂妄（hubris）；当全体以色列人同时陷入绝望并祈求神的救赎时，现世就将终结，人类也将由此重返最初的乐园。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 卡巴拉辩证救赎模型 accDescr: 展现从神创原始人到背离、受罚、悔改与重返乐园的循环过程 subgraph Origin["神创阶段"] A["上帝 （给予之意愿 / 正题）"] --> B["原始人 Adam Kadmon （接受之意愿 / 反题）"] end subgraph Crisis["决裂与灾难"] B --> C["背弃上帝与世界破碎 （制造冲突 / 试图逼神出手）"] C --> D["招致毁灭性惩罚 （打破傲慢与绝境降临）"] end subgraph Redemption["合题与救赎"] D --> E["集体痛悔与祈求饶恕"] E --> F["世界重组与重返乐园 （终极合题 / 救赎完成）"] end Origin --> Crisis Crisis --> Redemption ``` ### [02:02:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7353s) 人生低谷与妻子的无条件之爱对话进行到尾声，巴特利特遵循节目的经典传统，向江教授提出了上一位嘉宾留下的神秘盲盒问题：“你离开这个世界时，最舍不得、最想念的人会是谁？为什么？”江教授毫不犹豫地回答是他的妻子。他深情地回忆起两人在大约十年前相遇的情景，那是他整个人生中最为绝望的至暗时刻（rock bottom）。作为耶鲁大学（Yale）的毕业生，他曾带着极高的自我期许和征服世界的傲慢走向社会，然而迎面而来的却是长达数十年的连环失败。没有体面的工作、几乎毫无收入、生活完全丧失希望，严重的抑郁症几乎将他吞噬。尽管他骨子里并不信神，但在极度痛苦中，他的灵魂依然在无助地祈求拯救。就在那时，他的妻子如天使般走入了他的生命。不同于世俗眼光的苛责，妻子给予了他毫无保留的接纳与爱，温柔地待他，并坚定地鼓励他重新相信自己。妻子更以一种最具实质意义的方式证明了这份信任——愿意与一无所有的他组建家庭并生下孩子。这种无条件的爱与牺牲彻底击碎了江教授内心的绝望，让他意识到自己必须为了家庭振作起来，承担起养家糊口的责任。在重回生活的轨道上，曾有巨大的灰色诱惑摆在他面前：当时国内针对常春藤名校的留学中介包装产业极其火爆，凭借他的耶鲁背景，如果帮助富裕家庭的孩子包装进入耶鲁，一单就能轻松赚取近100万美元。然而妻子断然制止了他，对他说：“你不能为了钱做这种事，你必须对自己诚实，对我们的儿子诚实，给他树立一个真正的榜样。”在这番话的指引下，他选择脚踏实地成为一名普通的高中教师，并在业余时间开始在 YouTube 上制作地缘历史分析视频。妻子毫无保留的爱不仅拯救了他的生命，也彻底消解了他昔日的厌世心理，让他如今深深眷恋这个世界，不愿与妻子分离。 - **耶鲁名校光环的反差**：毕业后经历数十年挫折与贫困，陷入重度抑郁，曾一度对生死毫无眷恋。 - **拒绝百万美元诱惑**：坚决放弃收费高达100万美元的名校保录申请包装捷径，选择恪守诚信与本心。 - **人生轨迹的重塑**：从绝望边缘重拾尊严，转型成为高中教师，并在家人的支持下开启自媒体创作之路。 ### [02:05:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7546s) 灵感觉醒：一年揽获250万订阅背后的精神支柱谈到自媒体频道的发展，巴特利特惊叹于江教授惊人的崛起速度：仅仅用了大约一年时间、仅发布了146个深度地缘政治与历史长视频，其 YouTube 频道便累积了近250万订阅者，不仅单期视频经常斩获数百万播放，在其他频道的客串视频点击量更是逼近1000万次大关。巴特利特询问他是否曾预料到会有如此空前的成功。江教授坦言，尽管数字超出了预期，但他确实预感到了某种突破。他解释说，当他全心全意坠入爱河并组建家庭后，他的想象力被彻底打开，整个人仿佛直接连通了“宇宙的源头”（the source），宇宙源源不断地赋予他洞察地缘大势与未来走向的灵感。这份源自家庭的爱给予了他无所畏惧的魄力，促使他创立频道去做出那些大胆乃至看似荒唐的预言——“如果我猜对了，我能帮到许多人并获得认可；如果我错了，那我就是一个彻头彻尾的笨蛋，但我不在乎。”江教授明确表示，巨大的流量、财富和名望丝毫没有动摇他的核心价值观。他绝不会像乔丹·彼得森（Jordan Peterson）那样去组建庞大的商业传媒集团或创办大学，他唯一的动力就是真诚地分享自我、保持谦逊求知，并勇敢地守护家人。最后，当巴特利特询问他现在是否快乐时，江教授笃定地表示，自己拥有极大的幸福感，而这种幸福感完全来自于妻子和孩子，与世俗成败无关。他坦然说道：“哪怕平台明天就封禁我的 YouTube 频道，我也不会有丝毫沮丧，因为我可以随时重新再做；真正不可替代的，是我源源不断的创造力源泉——那便是我对家人的爱。”巴特利特感慨这番话无比美丽，并透露正是无数观众在留言区狂热地刷屏请愿，才促成了这场震动人心的面对面长谈。 ### [02:09:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7779s) 具两极争议的公众形象与超越党派的真相追求在对话尾声，姜教授直言不讳地谈到自己在公众眼中的争议性定位。他坦承自己是一个极具两极分化色彩的人物（polarizing figure），现实情况往往是“一部分人极度喜欢我，但另一部分人也极度厌恶我”。面对这种两极化的公众评价，主持人表示自己做访谈一贯坚持脱离预设立场和阵营偏见，不论嘉宾身上带有何种标签都会坐下来深入沟通。主持人提到，自己曾与卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）、伊万卡·特朗普（Ivanka Trump）、加文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）以及米歇尔·奥巴马（Michelle Obama）等政治光谱截然不同的人物对话，核心动力始终在于“对真相的探寻”，而非被摆在桌面上的既有派系与政治阵营所绑架。 ### [02:10:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7810s) 视觉化解构复杂地缘与每个人探求真相的意志主持人由衷感谢姜教授所做的工作，称赞他成功驱散了宏大地缘政治的迷雾，为世界提供了一种稀缺而清晰的观察视角。特别是姜教授擅长运用生动的视觉化方式解构复杂地缘格局，这让许多不擅长死啃大部头专著或在传统应试教育中感到吃力的普通人，也能以极简明的方式理解宏观地缘逻辑，并将其转化为与自身生活息息相关的切实洞察。姜教授对此回应道，这也是他最希望向公众传达的核心信念——每一个人内心其实都具备独立查明并认知真相的能力，“这仅仅取决于你是否有追求真相的欲望与意志”。 - **探寻真相的门槛**：认清世界局势并不依赖高深的学术背景，关键在于个体是否拥有主动穿透信息茧房的意愿与决心。 - **降维解构的价值**：通过视觉化与博弈论模型的生动呈现，打破教科书式的晦涩门槛，使战争、货币与能源等宏观博弈成为普通人可理解、可行动的现实参照。 ### [02:10:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7850s) 尾声：AI 算法推荐与节目结语对谈正式结束后，主持人切入节目的结语互动。他向观众调侃并介绍了 YouTube 极其强大的推荐算法，说明平台如何依靠 AI 技术和观众的个人观看行为数据，精准研判其兴趣偏好，并为每位观众量身推送屏幕上所呈现的下一期绝佳视频，邀请大家点击观看接下来的精彩内容。 ## Notable quotes > [23:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1434s) 因为伊朗战事爆发，我们可能需要你们暂停民用车辆的生产，全面转向弹药与无人机的制造。 — 五角大楼高层官员 > [25:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=1546s) 如果你退后一步审视整张世界地缘拼图，美方推进全球冲突的这套打法不仅合乎逻辑，甚至严丝合缝。 — 江教授 > [01:32:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5557s) 这就像从婴儿手里抢糖吃一样简单。 — 江教授 > [01:39:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=5976s) 粮食必须从地里长出来。人类使用化肥是为了将土地的生产潜能发挥到极致。一旦失去化肥，你哪怕拥有再多的机器人也无济于事——机器人不需要吃东西，但人类必须吃东西。 — 江教授 > [01:40:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6023s) 西方生活方式让我们变得极其懒惰和肥胖。 — 江教授 > [01:42:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6121s) 朋友们，为什么不回头看看？这一切不过是一场骗局！ — 江教授 > [01:42:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6121s) 创造这种现实的，其实并不是那些掌权者，而是我们自身的想象力。神经科学家早已证实，我们所感知的一切，本质上都是大脑的大脑幻觉。 — 江教授 > [01:45:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6353s) 只要你想赚钱，他们就控制着你，因为他们掌控着货币的发行与创造。 — 江教授 > [01:50:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6602s) 墙上的这些影子真的是真的吗？它们对我来说毫无真实感 — 年轻一代 > [01:50:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=6602s) 这些影子全都是假的 — 独立媒体 > [02:02:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7353s) 你不能为了钱做这种事，你必须对自己诚实，对我们的儿子诚实，给他树立一个真正的榜样。 — 江教授妻子 > [02:05:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7546s) 如果我猜对了，我能帮到许多人并获得认可；如果我错了，那我就是一个彻头彻尾的笨蛋，但我不在乎。 — 江教授 > [02:05:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7546s) 哪怕平台明天就封禁我的 YouTube 频道，我也不会有丝毫沮丧，因为我可以随时重新再做；真正不可替代的，是我源源不断的创造力源泉——那便是我对家人的爱。 — 江教授 > [02:09:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7779s) 一部分人极度喜欢我，但另一部分人也极度厌恶我 — 江教授 > [02:10:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw&t=7810s) 这仅仅取决于你是否有追求真相的欲望与意志 — 江教授 ## Mentioned 江教授 (Professor Jiang), 史蒂文·巴特利特 (Steven Bartlett), 唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump), 小唐纳德·特朗普 (Don Jr.), 尼古拉斯·马杜罗 (Nicolás Maduro), 萨达姆·侯赛因 (Saddam Hussein), 彼得·海格塞斯 (Pete Hegseth), 弗拉基米尔·普京 (Vladimir Putin), 亚历山大·杜金 (Alexander Dugin), 阿巴斯·阿拉格齐 (Abbas Araghchi), 弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 (Volodymyr Zelenskyy), 高市早苗 (Sanae Takaichi), 金正恩 (Kim Jong Un), 埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk), 马克·扎克伯格 (Mark Zuckerberg), 彼得·蒂尔 (Peter Thiel), 拉里·埃里森 (Larry Ellison), 萨姆·奥特曼 (Sam Altman), 瑞·达利欧 (Ray Dalio), 尤瓦尔·赫拉利 (Yuval Noah Harari), 奥斯瓦尔德·斯宾格勒 (Oswald Spengler), 乔丹·彼得森 (Jordan Peterson), 卡玛拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris), 伊万卡·特朗普 (Ivanka Trump), 加文·纽森 (Gavin Newsom), 米歇尔·奥巴马 (Michelle Obama), 美国三角洲特种部队 (Delta Force), 美国中央司令部 (CENTCOM), 伊斯兰革命卫队 (IRGC), 真主党 (Hezbollah), 胡塞武装 (Houthi movement), 哈马斯 (Hamas), 海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会 (GCC), 金砖国家 (BRICS), 北约 (NATO), 摩萨德 (Mossad), 福特汽车 (Ford), 通用汽车 (General Motors), OpenAI, Anthropic, Palantir, Oracle, Shopify, Pipedrive, 国际清算银行 (BIS), 环球银行金融电信协会 (SWIFT), 世界银行 (World Bank), 联合国 (UN), 世界贸易组织 (WTO), 美国联邦储备系统 (Federal Reserve), 霍尔木兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz), 马六甲海峡 (Strait of Malacca), 哈尔克岛 (Kharg Island), 黑海 (Black Sea), 敖德萨 (Odessa), 里海 (Caspian Sea), 国际南北运输走廊 (INSTC), 一带一路倡议 (BRI), 萨德反导系统 (THAAD), 南矛行动 (Operation Southern Spear), 星门计划 (Operation Stargate), 《国防战略报告》 (National Defense Strategy), 《地缘政治的基础》 (Foundations of Geopolitics), 《理想国》 (The Republic), 《人类简史》 (Sapiens) ## Video description Professor Jiang predicted Trump would win the election, America would go to war with Iran, and that the United States would lose that war. Now he reveals why he believes this conflict could reshape the entire world order! Professor Jiang is a geopolitical analyst, writer, and host of the YouTube channel 'Predictive History', who uses history, geography, economics, and game theory to explain where global conflicts may be heading next. Through his Substack, he provides geopolitical analysis of current events and helps readers understand the deeper forces shaping war, power, and the future of the American empire. He explains: ◼️Why he believes America had no choice but to go to war with Iran ◼️Why Israel’s real goal may be much bigger than defeating Iran ◼️How the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global energy and food crisis ◼️Why China, Russia, Iran, Israel, and the US are locked into competing worldviews ◼️Why the US dollar, oil, and global trade routes are at the center of the Iran War ◼️Why he believes World War 3 may have already begun ◼️What happens if Russia enters the war on Iran’s side ◼️Why the next phase of war may be fought through energy, shipping, and food 00:00 Intro 02:11 Why The US Had No Choice But To Invade Iran 08:55 Why Trump Thought Iran Would Surrender 10:00 The Mountain Fortress He Underestimated 13:30 The Strait That Could Break The Global Economy 16:00 The Document Revealing America's Real Plan 22:00 How The US Plans To Strangle China 26:00 Inside Iran's Hidden War Strategy 31:00 80% Chance This Becomes World War 3 34:30 The Chess Game Between Four Global Powers 44:00 The Russian Tanker Seizures Nobody's Reporting 50:00 What Happens When Russia Joins Iran 54:30 Ads 56:30 Trump's Third Term Is Already Being Planned 01:02:30 The Secret US-China Deal Coming This Year 01:04:30 The National Draft Is Already Here 01:06:24 Ads 01:09:30 Israel Will Conquer The Middle East 01:12:00 Russia Will Take Odessa And End The War 01:14:30 North Korea's Move On Seoul 01:20:00 What The Average Person Should Do 01:25:30 Who Really Controls Reality 01:42:00 Why His Wife Saved His Life Follow Professor Jiang: Youtube - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/FYWV4L8 Instagram - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/Cm0HlGI X - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/5jRKZdE Substack (geo-political analysis) - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/46bgm4o Sponsors: Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO Shopify - https://shopify.com/bartlett [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJGr78-zyw)

Source quotes

[23:54] 五角大楼高层官员: 因为伊朗战事爆发，我们可能需要你们暂停民用车辆的生产，全面转向弹药与无人机的制造。 [25:46] 江教授: 如果你退后一步审视整张世界地缘拼图，美方推进全球冲突的这套打法不仅合乎逻辑，甚至严丝合缝。 [92:37] 江教授: 这就像从婴儿手里抢糖吃一样简单。 [99:36] 江教授: 粮食必须从地里长出来。人类使用化肥是为了将土地的生产潜能发挥到极致。一旦失去化肥，你哪怕拥有再多的机器人也无济于事——机器人不需要吃东西，但人类必须吃东西。 [100:23] 江教授: 西方生活方式让我们变得极其懒惰和肥胖。 [102:01] 江教授: 朋友们，为什么不回头看看？这一切不过是一场骗局！ [102:01] 江教授: 创造这种现实的，其实并不是那些掌权者，而是我们自身的想象力。神经科学家早已证实，我们所感知的一切，本质上都是大脑的大脑幻觉。 [105:53] 江教授: 只要你想赚钱，他们就控制着你，因为他们掌控着货币的发行与创造。 [110:02] 年轻一代: 墙上的这些影子真的是真的吗？它们对我来说毫无真实感 [110:02] 独立媒体: 这些影子全都是假的 [122:33] 江教授妻子: 你不能为了钱做这种事，你必须对自己诚实，对我们的儿子诚实，给他树立一个真正的榜样。 [125:46] 江教授: 如果我猜对了，我能帮到许多人并获得认可；如果我错了，那我就是一个彻头彻尾的笨蛋，但我不在乎。 [125:46] 江教授: 哪怕平台明天就封禁我的 YouTube 频道，我也不会有丝毫沮丧，因为我可以随时重新再做；真正不可替代的，是我源源不断的创造力源泉——那便是我对家人的爱。 [129:39] 江教授: 一部分人极度喜欢我，但另一部分人也极度厌恶我 [130:10] 江教授: 这仅仅取决于你是否有追求真相的欲望与意志

Source quotes

[39:41] Peter Hegseth: it takes some time for the pigeons to get out to the armies [110:06] Professor Jiang: The system needs to become much more authoritarian. It needs to force people to believe what they refuse to believe. [112:37] Professor Jiang: It's not just a war between different nation-states. It's also a war for the fundamental nature of reality. You have the bankers versus the tech bros. [114:56] Professor Jiang: I think there's a very strong possibility that the American empire will collapse in the next 5 to 10 years because it is overstretched, it's in too much debt, and it is really angering the entire world. [117:08] Professor Jiang: It's not really about how can I stop these wars from happening, because you cannot... It's really about how do I live my life to the fullest? How do I become a much more creative individual that brings goodness to the people around me? [120:41] Professor Jiang: If Israel is committing all these atrocities in the Middle East... eventually the world will have to punish the Israelis... And once that phenomenon happens, when all people in Israel, at the same time, beg God for deliverance and for forgiveness, the world will end and will return to paradise. [122:33] Professor Jiang: She told me, 'You can't do that. You have to be true to yourself and you have to be true to our son. Set a good example for him.'... By loving me unconditionally, by being kind to me, it changed me forever. [129:15] Professor Jiang: Everyone has the capacity to learn the truth for himself or herself. It's only a question of desire and will.

Original transcript

[0:00] In 2024, you made three predictions that [0:03] have come perfectly true. Like Trump [0:05] would start a war with Iran. And you've [0:07] made a series of new predictions. Yes, [0:09] and I'll explain each prediction one by [0:11] one. Okay, so first, I predict that [0:13] Trump will get a third term. But isn't [0:14] this constitutionally illegal? It's not. [0:16] The president now has emergency war [0:18] powers. And so he can actually delay the [0:20] election. My second prediction is Iran [0:22] is now up for a war, and the United [0:24] States will institute a national draft. [0:26] Meaning that if you're between 18 and 24 [0:28] in America and you're male, you'll be [0:29] automatically put into the draft system. [0:31] And they just passed a law that says [0:33] that starting in December, you'll be [0:34] automatically registered. Which means [0:36] you're obliged to go and fight. Exactly. [0:39] Next, the world will move towards an AI [0:41] civilian state. So, everything you do [0:43] online is being recorded to figure out [0:46] how to control you. And then, this is [0:47] the most controversial prediction. This [0:48] is pretty bad. And I'll explain why. And [0:51] also, I will tell you why this war can [0:53] only lead to World War III. Why? There's [0:54] a very strong possibility that the [0:56] American empire will collapse. And also, [0:58] I'll show you what the Russians will do, [1:00] and how the private bankers are [1:02] controlling you. [1:03] >> I'm not owned by anybody. That's what [1:04] you think. So, let's talk about that. [1:09] This is super interesting to me. My team [1:11] gave me this report to show me how many [1:12] of you that watch this show subscribe, [1:14] and some of you have told us, according [1:15] to this, that you are unsubscribed from [1:17] the channel randomly. So, favor to ask [1:19] all of you, please could you check right [1:21] now if you've hit the subscribe button. [1:22] If you are a regular viewer of this show [1:24] and you like what we do here. We're [1:25] approaching quite a significant landmark [1:27] on this show in terms of a subscriber [1:28] number. So, if there was one simple, [1:31] free thing that you could do to help us, [1:32] my team, everyone here, to keep this [1:34] show free, to keep it improving year [1:37] over year and week over week, it is just [1:38] to hit that subscribe button and to [1:39] double check if you've hit it. Only [1:41] thing I'll ever ask of you. [1:42] Do we have a deal? [1:43] If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll [1:44] do. I'll make sure [1:46] every single week, every single month, [1:48] we fight harder and harder and harder [1:49] and harder to bring you the guests and [1:50] conversations that you want to hear. I [1:52] stayed true to that promise since the [1:53] very beginning of the Diary of a CEO, [1:55] and I will not let you down. Please help [1:57] us. We appreciate it. Let's get on with [1:59] the show. [2:07] Professor Dieng. [2:09] There's so much going on in the world at [2:11] the moment that it's quite confusing for [2:13] an ordinary person like me, and you've [2:15] blown up across the internet because [2:16] you've been able to demystify all of all [2:19] of this craziness, but also because in [2:22] 2024, [2:24] you made three predictions that have [2:26] come [2:27] perfectly true. [2:29] Some might say unfortunately. [2:31] Unfortunately, yes. What were those [2:32] three predictions? My first prediction [2:35] was that Trump would win in November [2:37] 2024. [2:39] Second prediction is that he would start [2:42] a war against Iran. [2:44] And the third prediction is that the [2:46] United States would lose this war, and [2:48] in losing this war, this would radically [2:51] reshape the geopolitical landscape. How [2:54] did you know that Trump would start a [2:56] war with Iran? The simple answer is [2:59] this. The The United States have to [3:01] invaded Iran because it has no choice in [3:05] the matter. If it were not to invade [3:07] Iran, it would lose its empire. Its [3:10] empire is based purely on US dollar, the [3:14] petrodollar, which is a Ponzi scheme. [3:17] If it did not invade Iran, then people [3:19] would choose not to trade with it [3:22] anymore. People would choose to not buy [3:25] US Treasuries. Why? For the longest [3:27] time, this system worked fine. [3:31] But then, in February 2022, [3:36] Russia invaded Ukraine. Yeah. That [3:38] wasn't the issue. The issue was the [3:41] American response. [3:42] The American response was to sanction [3:45] Russia, and we moved Russia from the [3:48] Swift global payment system. It also [3:52] ordered the Europeans to freeze over 200 [3:56] billion dollars [3:58] in Russian assets. And this is a problem [4:01] because the very basis for having the US [4:03] dollar [4:05] as the global reserve currency is that [4:07] it would remain politically neutral. [4:11] It It The Americans guaranteed seamless [4:15] and politically neutral [4:18] international exchange. [4:20] So, if this trend continues, [4:23] right? If you don't do anything about [4:25] Russia, Russia will take over Ukraine. [4:28] And Russia then would build an alliance [4:31] with China and Iran. If you look at [4:35] these three countries on a map, Russia, [4:37] China, and Iran, this is the entire [4:40] Asian continent. And then what they can [4:43] do is this. They can say, "Okay, [4:47] the United States is a bully. [4:49] They force us to play by their rules. [4:51] They get very angry if we don't play by [4:54] their rules. So, let's not play with the [4:56] United States anymore. Let's just trade [4:58] amongst ourselves." [5:00] And then what they can do is they can [5:02] build a [5:04] Eurasian railway system connecting [5:07] Russia, Iran, and China together. [5:10] And then what this would do is negate [5:14] American sea power because it's American [5:17] ships that patrol and protect [5:19] the oceans. [5:22] And then what happen is the world, [5:25] Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, East [5:29] Asia would look at this trading block [5:31] and think to themselves, "Wow, these [5:34] guys, the Russians, and Iranians, and [5:37] Chinese, they use gold [5:40] as their medium of exchange. [5:44] Gold is valuable. [5:46] The Americans, on the other hand, use US [5:49] dollars [5:50] as the medium of exchange, which is not [5:53] valuable. So, am am I better off with [5:56] the American system or this new BRICS [5:59] system? [6:00] What's BRICS? It's an acronym. It stands [6:02] for Brazil, [6:04] Russia, India, [6:06] uh South Africa, China. So, am I right [6:09] in thinking because Iran, Russia, and [6:11] China were colluding, it threatened US [6:14] dominance, which is driven by the world [6:16] using the dollar as the primary currency [6:20] for trading? That's correct. Okay. So, [6:22] they felt they needed to invade because [6:24] then they can control more of the Middle [6:25] East. Right. So, by attacking Iran, [6:28] certain things happened. Okay? The first [6:30] thing that happened is that [6:34] China is now cut off [6:37] from Middle East energy. [6:40] China [6:41] receives anywhere between 50 to 60% of [6:44] its energy needs [6:46] from the Middle East. Not just Iran, but [6:48] also Qatar and Saudi Arabia. [6:51] A lot of people say that China today, [6:53] it's reliant on renewables, solar, [6:56] wind. And that's true to a certain [6:58] extent. Remember that China, it is an [7:00] industrial powerhouse. So, it needs [7:02] energy from everywhere and [7:05] everyone. [7:06] So, [7:08] the fact that China is losing all this [7:11] energy from the Middle East presents [7:13] China with a long-term strategic [7:15] vulnerability. [7:16] Okay, that's the first thing that [7:18] happens. [7:19] Second thing that happens is that Europe [7:22] is now in trouble because remember, [7:24] because of the of Russia's invasion of [7:26] Ukraine, [7:27] Russian energy was sanctioned. [7:29] And so, Europe relied more on [7:33] Middle E- on the Middle East for its [7:34] energy needs, especially Qatar. [7:37] And now, Europe has lost all of this [7:40] oil. So, you and then you have Japan and [7:43] South Korea, these two powerful East [7:46] Asia economies are also reliant on the [7:49] Middle East for its [7:50] energy. So, now question is [7:53] if you're not getting your energy from [7:55] the Middle East, where can you get your [7:57] energy from? And there's only two [7:58] answers. [7:59] Either Russia [8:01] or the United States. [8:04] Russia is at war. And what's happening [8:06] is the Ukrainian drones are attacking [8:08] Russian oil refineries and export hubs. [8:12] So, the world in the short-term have has [8:17] no choice but to look to America for its [8:20] energy needs. [8:22] And what did Trump do recently? He took [8:24] over He took over Venezuela. [8:26] Which has the world's [8:27] greatest [8:29] oil reserves. [8:31] He's threatening Canada. He's [8:33] threatening Greenland, Mexico, Columbia. [8:36] If Trump controls the entire [8:39] Western Hemisphere, [8:42] the entire world has to beg Trump for [8:45] energy and resources. And this saves [8:48] both the US dollar [8:50] as well as American empire. So, as part [8:54] of your prediction in in 2024, I believe [8:57] it was, you said that the US would lose [8:59] this war, right? [9:00] Why did you predict that the US will [9:03] lose this war with Iran? [9:05] Because [9:06] the the American society does not does [9:08] not have the political will. [9:11] Does not have the manufac- manufacturing [9:13] capacity. [9:14] Does not have the risk tolerance to [9:17] fight this war in [9:19] Iran. [9:20] Basically, America wants to fight this [9:22] war as cheaply as easily and as quickly [9:26] as possible. [9:27] Right? So, Trump Trump really thought [9:30] that, you know, if I sent my airplanes [9:33] to strike Iran and kill the Ayatollah, [9:36] they would just surrender. That was like [9:38] literally his plan going into this war. [9:42] He paid no attention to the culture. He [9:45] paid no attention to the history of the [9:48] Iranian people. He had absolutely no [9:49] respect for [9:52] for the nation. And when you do that, [9:54] when you disrespect your opponent, when [9:56] you underestimate your opponent, when [9:57] you yourself are not willing to commit [9:59] to the fight, you're going to lose. [10:02] So, is Iran's game just a tool to stall [10:05] as long as they possibly can? [10:07] How they, you know, cuz he's taking out [10:10] the leaders. And then do you also think [10:11] that Trump thought that just if I just [10:12] bomb the leader, then everything will [10:15] sort of regenerate itself and we'll be [10:16] fine? [10:18] What was the sort of fundamental [10:19] misunderstanding? There's a lot of [10:21] confusion as to how this war started. [10:24] Even today, no one actually knows how [10:26] this war started. [10:29] But, I think that Trump, given his [10:31] personality, [10:32] he was convinced [10:34] that if he killed the leadership of [10:38] Iran, [10:40] then they would have no choice but to [10:42] surrender. And his proof of concept was, [10:44] of course, on January 3rd of this year, [10:48] Delta Force went into Venezuela, [10:51] kidnapped Maduro, [10:52] and they just completely surrendered. [10:54] So, in Trump's mind, he wanted to replay [10:58] this the Venezuela scenario. [11:00] And he [11:02] didn't realize that Iran is [11:03] fundamentally different from Venezuela. [11:06] The short answer is [11:09] he is a reality TV star. He thinks in [11:11] terms of optics. He doesn't think in [11:12] terms of like geopolitical strategy. The [11:14] long answer is that the American [11:18] military has become a very corrupt and [11:21] insular institution [11:23] that is trying to generate as much [11:25] commercial funding as possible in order [11:28] to fund the military-industrial complex. [11:31] Did he think that he was going to bomb [11:33] Iran, the people would rise up, they [11:36] would elect a new government, and that [11:38] would [11:39] be that, and then he could control Iran? [11:41] That's exactly what he thought. So, what [11:44] I want to do now is go to the map. [11:46] >> Okay. All right? And I'll show you what [11:48] he got wrong. [11:48] >> Okay. All right. So, this is a map of [11:52] the Middle East. [11:54] And the first thing to notice about this [11:58] map [11:59] is the topography. [12:01] What does that mean? How many mountains [12:03] you have. So, this is What's really [12:06] interesting is that the topography [12:09] between Iraq and Iran are completely [12:13] different. [12:15] And this is important because to In [12:17] 2003, [12:18] the Americans invaded Iraq, and they won [12:21] the war in about 2 weeks. And the reason [12:25] why they won the war is Americans [12:27] practiced something called shock and [12:29] awe. [12:33] The idea of shock and awe [12:35] is that [12:37] it is a military strategy that believes [12:41] that if you cut off the head of the [12:43] snake, the snake will die. The [12:45] decapitation strike. [12:47] And so, what they did was they went into [12:52] Baghdad, [12:53] seized Baghdad, and the [12:57] regime collapsed, and the war was over. [13:03] And they were able to do this because of [13:06] the topography. [13:07] If you look at a map of Iraq, it's all [13:10] flat, it's all desert. [13:13] Meaning that you can just fly in your [13:16] planes, [13:19] cut off the head of the snake, and the [13:21] war is over. There's absolutely no way [13:24] you can defend against air strikes [13:27] because you're entirely a desert. [13:32] Now, let's go to let's look at the [13:35] topography of I of Iran. And Iran is all [13:39] mountainous. [13:41] In fact, you can make the argument that [13:44] Iran is a fortress. [13:47] Okay? [13:49] And so [13:51] the first thing is [13:54] that [13:55] Iran can choose to fight a war of [13:59] attrition. What's a war of attrition? A [14:02] war of attrition is a game of uncle. [14:05] What's that? Right. A game of uncle is [14:07] where [14:08] uh we don't have enough power to destroy [14:11] each other. So we what we try to do is [14:13] we try to create pain points, leverage [14:16] points [14:18] to force you to submit, to cry uncle. [14:22] Right? So because Iran is too large [14:27] and has 92 million people, it's [14:29] impossible [14:30] for the Americans and Israelis to [14:32] destroy Iran. So what they try to do [14:34] instead is [14:36] bomb enough targets so that they [14:40] recognize that resistance resistance is [14:42] futile and they surrender. [14:44] Okay? That's the extent of the strategy. [14:47] But again, the problem with this is that [14:50] one, Iran is much too big. Number two is [14:54] that it is a mountain fortress, which [14:57] means that you can hide your weapons and [15:00] your military [15:01] inside mountains. [15:04] Right? Which allows you to conduct a [15:06] guerrilla warfare strategy against your [15:09] opponent. [15:11] And this is exactly what Iran is doing [15:13] right now, where their underground [15:14] missile bases are hidden inside [15:17] the mountains and then they're able to [15:20] strike targets throughout [15:23] the Middle East. Primarily American [15:25] bases, but also energy installations [15:29] that are key to the American petrodollar [15:30] system. [15:32] And so, it's a game of uncle where the [15:34] Americans are trying to create as much [15:36] damage as possible in every nation and [15:39] Iran's response is trying to destroy as [15:43] much of of the global economy as [15:45] possible to force the world to pressure [15:48] America to call the war off. So, that's [15:51] the situation we are facing right now. [15:53] Second thing that Trump got got wrong [15:56] is how vulnerable the global economy is. [15:59] Because [16:01] the Iranians can control something [16:02] called the Strait of Hormuz. [16:03] Okay? And as you can see [16:05] on this map, the Strait of Hormuz is a [16:08] very [16:09] very narrow [16:12] piece [16:13] of land. It's only about 33 km across. [16:16] You can actually swim [16:18] across the Strait of Hormuz. [16:20] Okay? And what's important is [16:23] that the GCC [16:25] export 20% [16:28] of the world's energy. The GCC The Gulf [16:32] Cooperative Council. Okay? So, the Gulf [16:34] Cooperative Council are certain nations [16:37] in the Middle Middle East that align [16:39] politically. So, they include Qatar, [16:42] Saudi Arabia, [16:43] uh the UAE, Oman, Iran, Kuwait. [16:48] They've been exporting [16:51] energy. [16:52] But not just energy, but also a lot of [16:54] byproducts of of energy production [16:56] including fertilizer [16:58] to the world, primarily [17:01] East Asia [17:02] and India. [17:03] In return, they've been getting [17:06] um [17:08] food [17:09] back. So, most people don't don't don't [17:11] appreciate this, but the GCC actually [17:13] imports 89% of its [17:16] food needs. The the reason why is that [17:19] they become so rich these past few [17:20] decades [17:22] that the populations have um blown up. [17:26] And as a result, [17:28] they have to feed the population, but [17:31] they don't have agricultural resources. [17:33] They also don't have water resources. [17:36] And so, they have two major [17:37] vulnerabilities, which is food and [17:40] water. And they have a lot of these [17:41] other these desalination plants around [17:43] the area. [17:45] And so, [17:46] >> What's a desalination plant? [17:47] >> Okay. [17:48] So, a desalination plant takes salt [17:51] water from the seas, and then through an [17:53] electrochemical process, turns it into [17:56] portable water that people can use uh [18:00] for drinking purposes and for [18:03] agricultural purposes. [18:04] >> Okay. [18:05] Right? So, as you can see, the entire [18:07] area [18:09] it is extremely vulnerable [18:11] to drone and missile attacks from Iran. [18:15] So, that's the second thing that Iran [18:16] has done, which Trump did not expect. He [18:18] didn't expect that the Iranians would [18:20] close off the Strait of [18:24] Hormuz. And how the Iranians were able [18:25] to close off the Strait of Hormuz was [18:28] just by threatening to attack any ships [18:31] that wanted to cross it. The reason why [18:34] is that the ships depend on maritime [18:38] insurance in order to operate. [18:40] But if there's a risk, a very high risk [18:42] of being destroyed, then um [18:45] you will not be able to get insurance. [18:47] Okay. So, it's not that the Iranians [18:49] have said to these ships, "You can't [18:50] cross." It's just that the insurers [18:52] refused to allow these ships to cross [18:55] because it's too dangerous. [18:56] And Trump didn't Do you think they'd [18:58] consider this before they started [18:59] bombing Iran? That Iran would have some [19:02] leverage in shutting down such a [19:04] critical [19:06] piece of uh water for, you know, [19:08] shipping fertilizer, energy, etc. You [19:11] think that they would have known this. [19:13] Right, so that's what a lot of people [19:15] say, that Trump's stupid, that Trump is [19:19] hot-headed, that he was misled by the [19:21] Israelis. [19:23] And there's good evidence to support [19:25] this. [19:26] But I want to show you something. Okay, [19:28] it's it's called the [19:30] National Defense Strategy. All right? [19:33] And so this is [19:35] a document that was published by the [19:37] Department Department of War. [19:39] And in it, [19:40] it explains [19:42] what the American strategy to maintain [19:46] global dominance is. [19:48] And in the introduction, what it says is [19:51] that [19:52] for too long, America has been bullied [19:55] by the war world. America is a nation [20:00] that protects the world. [20:02] Yet Europe, [20:04] East Asia, takes advantage [20:07] of American generosity. [20:08] The Europeans don't pay for their [20:11] defense. [20:12] And so they put all this money into [20:14] welfare, into a pension system. [20:16] The Chinese [20:18] have been giving America a bad trade [20:22] deal. The Chinese steal American [20:24] technology and then use it to make [20:27] products that they sell back to the [20:28] Americans. [20:29] So, [20:31] the Americans have been have been [20:33] getting a really bad deal [20:35] for decades. And President Donald Trump, [20:38] he's going to change that by doing four [20:41] things. [20:42] All right? The National Defense Strategy [20:43] calls for a four-point [20:46] program [20:48] to put America first. [20:50] The first thing that [20:53] um America's going to do, it's going to [20:55] secure [20:57] the Western Hemisphere. [20:58] Why? Because the Western Hemisphere [21:00] belongs to the United States. When you [21:03] say the Western Hemisphere, what do you [21:05] mean? What What region is that? Is that [21:07] Canada there as well and So if you look [21:08] at a map, we can divide we can divide [21:11] the map into the Eastern Hemisphere, [21:14] okay, and the Western Hemisphere. Okay, [21:16] so everything over here. Everything, [21:18] including Greenland, including Canada, [21:21] including Mexico. Every part of this [21:24] area belongs to United States. [21:27] Therefore, you cannot trade with any of [21:30] these countries [21:32] without American permission or paying a [21:35] tribute to the Americans. [21:38] And that this is why [21:40] that the Americans have parked 1/3 of [21:43] their naval assets in the Caribbean [21:46] today. [21:48] It's to It's to tell the Chinese and the [21:50] Russians [21:51] back off. [21:53] You want to come here, [21:54] you either pay a tribute [21:56] or you'll be attacked. [21:59] Okay, so that's the first [22:01] point of this strategy. The Western [22:03] Hemisphere belongs to America. Something [22:06] that they call the Don Monroe Doctrine. [22:09] Okay, which is Trump's corollary to the [22:10] Monroe Doctrine. [22:12] Okay, so that's point one. [22:15] Point two is that America wants to [22:19] reimagine its relationship with its [22:21] allies. [22:23] Basically, NATO needs to pay for its own [22:27] defense. [22:29] NATO needs to go fight Russia in [22:32] Ukraine. America will provide support. [22:35] It'll provide weapons and financing, [22:38] but NATO needs to do more work. [22:42] And in these Asia, South Korea and Japan [22:45] need to do better job of keeping China [22:49] in check. [22:51] Okay, that's point two. [22:53] Point three is specific to China. [22:56] And the idea is United States does not [22:59] want to destroy China. [23:01] The States does not want to humiliate [23:02] China, [23:03] but China needs to be put in its place. [23:07] China needs to respect the power [23:10] and the reach of the United States. And [23:14] how [23:15] the United States is going to do this [23:17] is by strangling China economically. [23:21] Right? So, you look at at a map of [23:23] China, [23:25] most of its trade goes through something [23:27] called the Strait of Malacca. [23:30] And the Strait of Malacca is most [23:31] important maritime choke point in the [23:34] world. All America has to do is park [23:37] naval carriers inside the Strait of [23:39] Malacca, and China will lose 90% of its [23:43] energy exports. But if they park them [23:45] there, China could still go through, no? [23:48] No, because you have to go for the [23:49] Strait of Strait of Malacca. So, America [23:51] has something called the First Island [23:52] Chain. [23:54] Okay? And the First Island Chain [23:56] prevents China from reaching the Pacific [23:58] Ocean. The First Island Chain includes [24:00] South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the [24:03] Philippines, and Malaysia. That blocks [24:05] China from reaching out into into [24:07] Pacific. Mhm. So, in order for it to [24:10] access trade, it has to go through the [24:12] Strait of Malacca. [24:13] And for the Strait of Malacca, it can [24:15] access [24:16] uh India, [24:17] Africa, [24:18] and the [24:20] um Middle East. Okay. Right? [24:23] And so, by positioning naval carriers [24:27] inside the Strait of Malacca, it creates [24:29] a blockade, and China would have to pay [24:33] a toll in order to access [24:35] um the Strait of Malacca. [24:37] And the fourth one? And the fourth one [24:39] is to [24:41] um rejuvenate, reinvigorate [24:45] Am- America's defense manufacturing [24:48] sector. So, supercharge the US defense [24:50] industrial base. That's exactly correct. [24:52] Yes. All right? So, what this means is [24:55] that the Pentagon, a few weeks ago went [24:58] to Detroit and talked to Ford and [25:01] General Motors and said, "You know what? [25:03] Because of this war in Iran, we might [25:04] need you to stop making cars and start [25:07] making more munitions and drones." How [25:10] do you know they said that? It's They [25:12] published it. They published it, yes. [25:13] Really? Yes. [25:14] So, the United States went to Forbes and [25:16] GM and said, "We might need you to start [25:18] making weapons with your factories." [25:19] Yes, and they're happy doing this [25:20] because profit margins are much greater [25:22] for weapons than for for cars. This is [25:25] the Pentagon, so you can charge them as [25:27] you can charge them as much as you want [25:29] and they'll pay for it. Whereas, you [25:30] make cars, it's for the consumer market [25:32] and they may not buy your cars. Mhm. [25:34] Right? So, so you're like Ford or [25:36] General Motors, the best [25:38] deal in the world is to go make weapons [25:42] for the Pentagon to fight these wars in [25:44] the East that could go on for forever. [25:46] So, so so we're in a situation where [25:48] okay, look, if you read the news, if you [25:50] talk to a lot of people, Trump's an [25:53] idiot and this war in Iran makes no [25:57] sense at all. [25:58] But, then if you just read the National [26:00] Defense Strategy that is on the [26:03] Department of War website and anyone can [26:05] go there and download for free and read [26:06] themselves, it's a very clear road map [26:10] of what America needs to do in order to [26:13] maintain imperial hegemony. And so, [26:15] let's let's let's just summarize the [26:17] major points. The first major point is [26:19] to maintain control over the Western [26:23] Hemisphere and create a fortress [26:25] America. Which is why he invaded [26:27] Venezuela and he said he's going to [26:28] invade Cuba. Exactly. And also [26:31] Greenland. Look at all the countries [26:33] that he's named over the past year. [26:35] Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, [26:39] Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Honduras. [26:43] It's all [26:45] the Western Hemisphere. [26:47] Right? And they're all together. Second [26:49] point is to create divide and rule [26:52] around the world. So, imagine a [26:53] situation where in Europe, NATO fight [26:57] Russia in Ukraine. [27:00] In East Asia, China fight South Korea [27:03] and Japan. [27:04] In the Middle East, Iran fights [27:08] the GCC allied with Israel. [27:11] What does America do? America can now [27:13] sell sell everyone weapons and resources [27:16] and finance it. This would be back to [27:20] World War II. But it makes them weaker [27:22] as well, generally. That's the point. [27:24] Yeah. Right? And then what happened is [27:27] that $42 [27:28] that [27:29] that America has in debt, it would [27:30] disappear. Because it would be absorbed [27:32] by the world. [27:34] Right? So, you can say [27:36] look, Trump's an idiot, but if you [27:38] actually look at a map and how America [27:41] wants this map this world map to play [27:43] out, it makes perfect sense. [27:46] Hm. [27:47] So, [27:49] the war is going well for Trump. [27:51] The war is going very well for Trump. [27:52] Really? Yes. [27:54] But you said in your prediction that he [27:55] would lose the war. [27:57] What is [27:57] >> What's your definition of lose the war? [28:00] Losing a war means that America would [28:03] send ground troops, Iran would survive [28:06] the ground invasion, [28:08] and this would be so politically [28:11] damaging that [28:14] chaos breaks out in the United States, [28:16] and the US ground invasion is forced to [28:20] retreat, and the United States is forced [28:22] to retreat from the Middle East. And you [28:25] still think that's going to happen? [28:26] >> I still think that's going to happen. [28:27] So, you think the United States is going [28:28] to put ground troops in, [28:29] Iran are going to resist, and then chaos [28:31] is going to break out in the United [28:32] States? Yes. [28:34] Okay. So, let me explain to you why [28:35] ground troops have to be sent. I mean, [28:37] all right. Okay. [28:39] So, [28:40] in phase one of this war, which started [28:43] February 28th, and which lasted for [28:45] about 6 weeks, the intention was to [28:48] decapitate the regime. And you do that [28:50] by striking Tehran, and you do that by [28:53] striking the military bases and [28:55] installations throughout [28:58] Iran. It's It's what the Americans call [28:59] shock and awe. [29:01] And the point is to force Iranians to [29:04] call uncle. [29:06] But that's not what happened. To To give [29:07] up. To give up, basically. [29:09] Because what the Iranians did was they [29:11] responded by attacking US bases [29:15] throughout the GCC. They closed off [29:20] the Strait of [29:23] Hormuz, [29:24] and they rallied their people, okay? [29:28] So, rather than surrender, the Iranians [29:31] basically doubled down. Okay, that's [29:33] phase two of the war. [29:35] Now we've gone to phase three of the [29:37] war, where Trump [29:39] has basically decided that decapitation [29:41] does not work. [29:43] And so, what Trump's going to do is he's [29:46] going to impose a naval blockade [29:49] on Iran's naval blockade. [29:52] Right? [29:54] And so, the question then is [29:57] if Trump understands that decapitation [29:58] does not work, [30:00] then using game theory, What's game [30:02] theory? Game theory is the belief that [30:07] all the world is governed by rules and [30:11] incentives. [30:12] And when you understand the rules and [30:13] incentives, you can predict how people [30:17] behave. These people will always behave [30:20] according to their best interests. [30:24] So, in geopolitics, [30:26] the nation-states are individual [30:28] players. [30:29] And each nation-state is trying to use [30:33] its resources [30:35] and um its advantages in order to [30:39] pressure other nation-states [30:41] to obey it. [30:42] Okay? So, [30:44] Trump recognizes that the Iranians can [30:47] close off the Strait of Hormuz, but not [30:49] only that, but the Iranians can also use [30:51] the Strait of Hormuz to finance the war. [30:54] Meaning that now they're forcing ships [30:57] to pay a toll, about $2 million, in [30:58] order to cross in order to cross it. [31:01] And so, this is a huge advantage for the [31:03] Iranians. And so, Trump has said, "No, [31:06] I'm going to blockade your blockade, [31:09] negating Iran's advantage of the Strait [31:12] of Hormuz." So, if you think about it, [31:14] again using game theory, I want to [31:15] discuss what the Americans will do in [31:18] order to force [31:20] uh the Iranians to capitulate. [31:23] Okay? So, I would say there's a three- [31:26] point strategy. [31:27] The first strategy is economic [31:30] strangulation. [31:32] You basically destroy the state's [31:34] capacity to finance the war. [31:36] And there are two ways that Iran is [31:38] financing the war so far. [31:40] The first is using oil exports, right? [31:43] 90% of Iran's oil goes to China. [31:49] And um this is Kharg Island. [31:52] Okay? This this little spot here is [31:53] Kharg Island. This is where [31:55] Iran will export 90% of its oil [31:58] overseas. That's the first [32:01] mechanism. Second mechanism mechanism is [32:03] the Strait of Hormuz, where the Iranians [32:05] now can collect tolls. [32:08] Right? So, what you have to do is you [32:10] have to eliminate both of these finance [32:13] mechanisms. [32:15] You can close off both [32:17] with an oil blockade, okay? [32:18] So, that's strategy one. [32:20] Strategy two [32:23] is [32:24] you need [32:26] to create as much chaos within Iran as [32:30] possible. [32:32] You want to turn this fortress [32:34] into a prison. And the way you do that [32:36] is by storing up ethnic tensions in the [32:40] country. So, if you look at a map [32:44] uh ethnic map of Iran, what you will [32:46] discover is that the Persian people [32:50] are primarily in this area, in the [32:52] middle of the country. [32:54] But, you go to the borderlands, okay? [32:58] The border areas, it's primarily ethnic [33:00] minorities. And there are two ethnic [33:02] minorities [33:04] in the country that have always been [33:06] problematic for the government. [33:08] The first [33:10] problematic people are the called [33:11] Baluchis, [33:13] here. [33:14] Uh in [33:16] south [33:17] east [33:19] uh Iran, by the Pakistani border. They [33:22] have a history of insurgency against the [33:25] government, okay? [33:27] Second people that have been problematic [33:29] are the Kurds, [33:31] who are primarily in the [33:34] uh northwest of the country. [33:38] So, if you are the US government, if you [33:41] are the military, [33:42] your strategy is to establish [33:46] forward operating bases [33:48] in these areas. [33:50] A forward operating base [33:52] is [33:53] uh a spearhead of the military, [33:56] where you insert ground troops to hold [33:58] an area Okay, so you [34:00] >> in order to resupply, in or- in order to [34:03] push further into the territory. Okay, [34:05] so a forward operating base would be the [34:07] US putting troops into the the northwest [34:11] and the southeast, [34:14] and then using that as a way to uh move [34:16] forward into Iran? No, you don't want to [34:19] move forward into Iran because it's too [34:21] large. You don't have enough forces to [34:23] move into Iraq. What you want to do is [34:26] this. You want to establish forward [34:28] operating bases in these areas in order [34:30] to arm [34:33] and train [34:35] ethnic insurgents. Okay. That you can [34:37] also finance as well. [34:40] And you do this because you want to turn [34:42] them into cannon fodder. [34:44] You force You have to force a response [34:46] from the Iranian military. Right? So, if [34:48] they come in with the army in order to [34:51] quell [34:53] these rebellions, that's great because [34:56] now you can use your air power to [34:58] decimate the Iranian military. Your plan [35:01] right now is the Iranian Iranian [35:02] military is hiding inside mountains. [35:06] And so, you want to force them out in [35:07] the open. [35:08] And so, you want to create as many [35:10] points of tension in the country as [35:12] possible to force the Iranian military [35:14] to respond. [35:16] Right? [35:17] Does that make sense? Uh-huh. Okay. [35:19] And now, your third strategy [35:22] is to strangle the capital, Tehran. [35:26] Because that's the That's where the [35:28] political elite are. It's a city of 10 [35:30] million people. [35:32] And the way you strangle Tehran is you [35:35] deny them three things. You deny them [35:37] water, [35:39] electricity, and food. [35:43] So, you attack power plants. You attack [35:46] reservoirs. [35:47] You attack railways that bring [35:50] um food into the capital. [35:54] And when you do that, these nine These [35:56] 10 million people in Iran [35:59] will now oppose the government and [36:01] demand a political settlement. [36:03] Because if they need food, uh water, [36:06] electricity to survive. [36:07] Right? Is there a government? [36:10] Right now, there's a debate as to the [36:13] true extent [36:15] of leadership in Iran. Cuz Trump's [36:18] recent interviews, he's saying he's he's [36:20] claiming that the the leadership in Iran [36:22] are fighting themselves, but then he's [36:24] also saying in other interviews that [36:25] there's They don't even know who they're [36:27] dealing with. Exactly. Iran has a very [36:30] unusual political system in that it's a [36:34] theocracy. It's a religious government, [36:36] it's run by clerics, called the mullahs, [36:38] in theory. [36:40] And then there's a parallel system, the [36:42] state apparatus, that actually takes [36:44] care of day-to-day bureaucracy. Okay, [36:47] and that's secular. [36:49] Uh the mullahs control the morality of [36:51] the country, they also control foreign [36:53] affairs. So, basically, uh this is [36:56] important because Iran has two parallel [37:00] military structures. You have the [37:03] military, but you also have [37:05] the IRGC. [37:08] The IRGC are only loyal to the mullahs, [37:11] which is the religious part. [37:12] >> Exactly. All right? So, you have this [37:15] divide in the in the country where the [37:18] IRGC see this as a religious war, as a [37:21] crusade to kill the Great Satan, and [37:24] they want to fight to the death. And the [37:25] Great Satan is The Great Satan is the [37:28] American Empire. Okay. Uh which is the [37:29] source of the misery that Iranians have [37:32] been suffering for the past few decades. [37:35] And the IRGC, not only do they see [37:39] America as the Great Satan, but they [37:41] also see this as a global conflict [37:43] because they have proxies that support [37:45] their beliefs, including here in [37:48] Lebanon, Hezbollah, including here in [37:51] Yemen, the Houthis, and of course in [37:54] Palestine, Hamas. Okay, and and before [37:57] Syria was also part of their axis of [38:00] resistance. But Syria has been toppled [38:03] by the Americans and and Israelis. So, [38:06] the IRGC see this as a religious crusade [38:09] that is global in nature. The political [38:11] leadership in Tehran [38:13] sees it completely different. They see [38:14] this as a classic primary between [38:17] America and Iran, and they want to reach [38:20] a political settlement as soon as [38:21] possible. [38:23] And so, in other words, [38:25] these [38:26] ceasefire negotiations, it's really all [38:28] for show. [38:30] Because, at the end of the day, even if [38:32] the Americans gave the Iranians [38:34] everything they wanted, [38:36] the IRGC still controls [38:39] um the battlefield, and they would not [38:42] um surrender or or seek peace terms [38:46] lightly. Another problem in this [38:48] situation is the IRGC practices only [38:51] called the Mosaic strategy. Mosaic. [38:55] The idea of the Mosaic strategy is, [38:57] okay, [38:59] you know the Americans the most [39:00] effective military ever in human [39:02] history. You know that they practice [39:04] shock and awe, decapitation. [39:06] So, how do you respond to that? You [39:08] respond to that using decentralization. [39:11] 31 provinces [39:13] in the country with where own command [39:15] and control that is localized. So, [39:17] basically, they have 31 different armies [39:19] that have their own leadership. [39:21] >> That's correct, okay? And when you do [39:23] this, it's a fight to the finish. Why [39:24] did they do that? They did it because [39:27] the Americans possess the most [39:30] sophisticated surveillance technology in [39:32] the world, meaning they can [39:34] easily identify the leadership, and they [39:37] can easily track you down and kill you. [39:41] So, the only way around that is to [39:42] decentralize the leadership and spread [39:45] it around the country so that the [39:47] Americans cannot kill the everyone. How [39:49] does the central government orchestrate [39:51] 31 different armies in Iran? How does it [39:54] get a message out to them? I heard Peter [39:55] Hegseth make a a comment in one of the [39:58] interviews saying that it takes some [40:00] time for the pigeons to get out to the [40:03] armies. And what he was saying, [40:04] basically, is that [40:06] um when the ceasefire was called and [40:07] there were still some um missiles [40:09] flying, he was basically saying that's [40:10] just because it takes a long time to [40:12] tell the 31 different armies to stop. [40:14] The reality is that, given the Mosaic [40:16] strategy, there's actually no way to [40:19] coordinate these 31 different military [40:23] operations. [40:25] Because [40:26] the Mojahedin was meant to the was meant [40:30] to fight to the bitter end. You do not [40:31] stop until you completely control the [40:34] Middle East and the Americans have been [40:36] forced out of the Middle East [40:39] and Israel has been humbled. [40:42] Okay. So, let's go into the specifics of [40:45] what the Mojahedin is. The idea is that [40:48] they have an eschatology. [40:51] Okay? So, eschatology is an [40:53] understanding of how the world should be [40:56] and how we move towards this world. [41:01] And for the Iranians, [41:04] their eschatology is that Iran, in order [41:07] to reach its true potential, needs to be [41:10] master [41:11] of the Muslim world. [41:13] It needs to displace Saudi Arabia. [41:16] Because Saudi Arabia is too aligned with [41:18] the United States, which is the Great [41:20] Satan. Mecca and Medina are under the [41:23] influence of the Great Satan. [41:26] Because why are there US military bases [41:29] in Saudi Arabia? [41:32] So, this war, from their perspective, is [41:35] a great opportunity to overthrow the [41:38] corrupt leadership of Saudi Arabia, but [41:40] not only Saudi Arabia, but the entire [41:41] GCC. [41:42] Overthrow the corrupt governments of the [41:44] entire Muslim world. [41:46] And install governments that [41:50] put [41:52] God, Allah, first. [41:54] So, they're they're not going to quit. [41:56] Iran. [41:57] This war, once it starts, [42:00] can only to World War III. [42:03] That's a strong statement to make. As a [42:05] probability, Okay. what probability [42:07] would you assign to that claim? [42:09] I would put it pretty high, anywhere [42:11] between 80 to 90% probability. [42:14] >> So that's certainty. [42:16] Basically certainty, yes. Explain to me [42:18] how that happens. Okay. So, we need to [42:20] step back and appreciate [42:23] um [42:25] that there's a global dynamic going on. [42:27] Mhm. Okay? [42:29] And we need to appreciate [42:31] the grand strategy of the different [42:32] players involved. Mhm. Right? So, what I [42:34] what I'm going to do is this. [42:37] I'm going to explain [42:41] to you how each nation [42:44] sees itself in the world. Mhm. Okay? And [42:47] to you and to that, I'm going to use a [42:49] chess set, okay? Okay. All right. This [42:51] is the king. [42:53] This is the political system [42:55] of the United States, which is a [42:57] democracy. [42:58] And there are certain strengths and [43:00] weaknesses to a democracy. Democracy is [43:02] vibrant. It's creative. It's flexible. [43:06] But its ultimate weakness is [43:08] polarization, [43:10] where today [43:12] um the different political factions [43:14] refuse to get along, and this may bring [43:16] up the civil war, okay? Mhm. So, the way [43:18] you defeat the United States is not to [43:21] conquer it. You can never conquer the [43:22] United States. The way to defeat the [43:24] United States is to force it into a [43:27] civil war, [43:28] which then kills the king. To get its [43:30] people to rise up against the [43:32] leadership. No, you want the Democrats [43:34] and Republicans to form different [43:36] factions and fight a civil war. Okay. [43:39] You you want to create some political [43:40] polarization and different elite [43:42] factions to take up arms against each [43:44] other, okay? Okay. So, this is the [43:45] political system, okay? [43:47] A democracy. [43:49] Now, let's look at the queen. What's the [43:50] queen? [43:51] The queen is what I refer to as the [43:53] grand strategy [43:55] of the United States. How the United [43:58] States can maintain its control over the [44:00] entire world. And the grand strategy [44:02] it's already outlined in the national [44:03] defense strategy, right? Let's create [44:06] fortress America [44:08] and then [44:09] create chaos throughout the entire world [44:12] so that we can sell everyone weapons and [44:15] resources. Okay, that's a grand [44:16] strategy, all right? [44:18] All right. Now, what is a grand [44:19] strategy? You need You need to implement [44:21] this grand strategy. So, you need attack [44:23] vectors. [44:24] All right, the attack vectors [44:26] are the rook, [44:29] the bishop, and the knight. All right, [44:30] so let's go over the three major attack [44:33] vectors of the United States. They are, [44:35] first of all, [44:37] America's technological supremacy. So, [44:39] these are the basically the tools that [44:40] they use to attack others. Exactly. In [44:42] order to achieve the grand strategy. All [44:44] right, so air supremacy, right? [44:46] Which is the planes and the stuff like [44:48] that. Then you have [44:50] the [44:51] US dollar. [44:53] Right? Because the US dollar [44:55] allows you to finance everything. And [44:58] everyone wants the um [45:01] uh US dollar, okay? Mhm. So, that is the [45:04] second attack vector. Now, the third [45:06] attack vector is propaganda. [45:09] Meaning the United States controls the [45:11] world's most powerful media, including [45:13] New York Times, CNN. And as such, they [45:15] can control the narrative of the world. [45:18] Okay? So, these are the three major [45:19] attack vectors. [45:20] Now, they use the pawns. Now, pawns are [45:25] weapons that they can sacrifice in order [45:27] to achieve the grand strategy. [45:29] And in the case of the United States, [45:32] the pawn are the allies. [45:35] Mhm. Meaning [45:37] I hate to say this, [45:38] but the UK, [45:41] um Europe, [45:44] South Korea, [45:47] and Japan. [45:49] Okay? And also, the entire [45:52] Western Hemisphere. [45:54] This is the [45:56] Ameri- the Americans, okay? The people [45:58] who are most opposed to this grand [46:01] strategy of Americans are the Russians. [46:03] So, let's go over to the Russian system. [46:06] In the Russian system, [46:09] the king of the political system is an [46:10] autocracy. [46:12] And an autocracy is good because it [46:14] allows for coordination. It allows for [46:17] decisiveness. It allows for [46:20] um resolve. Long-term thinking. Exactly, [46:24] right? That's Putin. [46:25] What's bad is [46:28] if this guy dies, [46:31] there's a succession crisis. [46:32] Right? So, basically, once you topple [46:35] the [46:37] autocrat, then the system itself [46:40] breaks down. Okay, so that's the Russian [46:42] system, right? [46:44] For the Russians, the grand strategy is [46:45] something called the Third Rome [46:47] strategy. The Third Rome strategy? [46:49] >> Yes. Okay. So, the people in Russia [46:52] believe that they are the true [46:54] successors to the Roman Empire. And [46:56] previously, there were two Romes. There [46:58] was the First Rome, [47:00] then it moved to Constantinople, [47:03] and Moscow is destined to the to be the [47:06] Third Rome. And what makes Moscow [47:09] interesting is that it wants to unite [47:13] the entire [47:15] Christian world under its leadership. Um [47:18] the main philosopher for the Third Rome [47:20] strategy is Alexander Dugin, who in 1997 [47:23] wrote a wrote a book called Foundation [47:25] of Geopolitics. And what he said was [47:26] this. What he said that if Russia is to [47:28] defeat the Americans, it needs to build [47:30] alliances throughout Eurasia [47:33] in order to negate American sea power [47:36] and air supremacy. [47:37] All right? [47:38] So, what are the attack vectors [47:42] for Russia? Okay. [47:44] The first attack vector, the size of the [47:46] country makes it almost invincible. So, [47:49] think about the World War II, Operation [47:51] Barbarossa, the Germans went into [47:53] Russia with 6 7 million men, [47:55] and it didn't get very far, okay? So, [47:58] the terrain is very important. The [48:00] geography is very important. [48:02] Then you have the Orthodox religion. [48:05] Which is meant to galvanize believers [48:09] into supporting Russia. [48:12] The third attack vector is artillery. [48:15] So, Russia has the best land army in the [48:18] world. [48:19] And we we're seeing that play out in [48:21] Ukraine where a combination of Russian [48:24] artillery and drones it's devastating [48:27] Ukrainian military in Ukraine. The pawns [48:30] for Russia are are its soldiers. So, [48:33] Russia is able to sustain [48:37] many, many [48:39] casualties in its military. [48:41] If you actually go and interview Russian [48:44] soldiers, they are probably the bravest [48:46] soldiers in the world. They are [48:48] literally not afraid to die [48:50] for what they believe in. Okay? So, this [48:52] is the um [48:53] Russian third world strategy. You can [48:55] see how it conflicts with the Americans. [48:59] Mhm. Okay? [49:00] Now, we go to the Israelis. [49:03] Jerusalem, the capital. It's a mixed [49:05] system, meaning it's both democracy as [49:07] well as a theocracy. [49:10] And [49:11] it's good in that the Israelis are very [49:14] creative. [49:15] But, the fundamental weakness is the [49:17] division within society. [49:19] Where Tel Aviv and Jerusalem don't get [49:21] along. [49:22] Okay? So, that is [49:25] the political system of Israel. [49:28] The grand strategy of Israel is called [49:31] the Greater Israel Project. [49:32] So, the Israelis believe that the entire [49:34] Middle East belongs to them from the [49:36] Nile [49:38] to the Euphrates because that's what it [49:40] says in the Bible. This is what God, [49:42] Yahweh, [49:43] promised Abraham. [49:45] So, their intention is to conquer the [49:48] entire Middle East, including Egypt, [49:52] Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, even parts of [49:54] Turkey. [49:57] Now, let's look at the attack vectors [50:00] for the the the the Israelis. [50:04] The first attack vector [50:06] is [50:08] Mossad. [50:09] Mossad is the most powerful intelligence [50:12] agency in the world in that it is able [50:16] to infiltrate [50:18] and undermine [50:20] given political systems. [50:21] And Mossad for anyone that doesn't know [50:22] is the secret service. Basically, yes. [50:25] Best spy system. Second [50:27] attack vector [50:29] for the Israelis [50:31] is the Jewish diaspora. [50:33] Because Jews do business everywhere [50:35] around the world. [50:37] And Jewish businessmen work very closely [50:40] with Mossad. [50:42] And as such, they have influence in a [50:44] lot of places that they shouldn't have. [50:47] And the um [50:49] third [50:50] um attack vector [50:52] is the Bible. [50:53] Why? Because if you're Christian [50:56] and there are many Christians who [50:56] believe this, you believe that the Jews [50:59] are God's chosen people. [51:02] So, if you look at what's happening in [51:04] uh the Middle East, [51:05] um all this conflict between Israel and [51:07] Palestine, a lot of this conflict is [51:10] being supported [51:12] politically in the United States by a [51:14] group of people called Christian [51:15] Zionists. [51:16] And these are Christians. They're not [51:17] Jews, they're Christians who believe [51:20] that Israel should achieve achieve the [51:22] greater Israel project because this is [51:25] part of God's plan. And the pawns [51:28] for the Israelis [51:30] are basically [51:32] everyone else, okay? [51:35] So, a lot of the hardware underpinning [51:38] the global [51:39] IT infrastructure [51:41] um is being controlled by the Israelis. [51:45] So, now we go to the fourth player in [51:47] this great game, and that's Iran. So, [51:49] Iran [51:50] it is a theocracy. People are not afraid [51:53] to die for what they believe in in Iran. [51:56] But, the weakness is that it can [51:58] alienate the majority of the population. [52:00] It is only a minority are religious [52:02] zealots in Iran. [52:04] Most people just want to live to live a [52:07] decent life. So, they feel that these [52:10] mullahs, the IRGC are a threat [52:14] to their peace and prosperity, then they [52:16] might rise up against the mullahs. Which [52:18] is what we've seen over the years, [52:19] right? Exactly. So, so this is a [52:21] political system of the Iranians. [52:24] Their grand strategy is to unite the [52:27] Muslim world under leadership. They have [52:30] three attack vectors, okay? The first [52:33] attack vector are their proxies. [52:36] Hezbollah, [52:37] Hamas, [52:39] the Houthis. [52:40] Another attack vector [52:42] um is their asymmetrical warfare, [52:44] meaning using drones and missiles to [52:47] create as much economic damage as [52:48] possible. Mhm. Okay. And the third [52:51] attack vector [52:53] is their geography or the topog- [52:55] topography. They are a fortress, so it's [52:57] almost impossible to um in- invade them. [53:01] All right? So, that's their Shia [53:03] militiamen. These religious zealots who [53:05] are not afraid to die. Um essentially, [53:08] they're all Many of them could be [53:10] suicide bombers, okay? And and so, for [53:12] them, this is a religious war. Okay. So, [53:15] now we're seeing how this entire [53:18] battlefield unfolds across the world. [53:22] All right? So, I've mapped out the grand [53:24] strategy [53:25] of these different nation-states who [53:27] will be involved in World War III. [53:29] Let's look at our present situation, [53:31] okay? So, what we have so far is that [53:35] the Russians are occupied with their [53:37] army in Ukraine. [53:40] Okay? This is where their infantry, [53:42] their artillery is based. [53:44] At the same time, Russia has something [53:46] called the shadow fleet. [53:48] And these are about a thousand [53:50] um tankers that evade sanctions around [53:53] the world. Okay? And this is essentially [53:56] their navy. [53:59] America is the most powerful military in [54:01] the world. They have the most [54:03] sophisticated air supremacy, as well as [54:06] control over the sea lanes. And it tries [54:09] not to use infantry [54:11] uh because that creates civilian [54:12] casualties and that pisses everyone off [54:14] in America. Okay? [54:15] These releases [54:17] are essentially [54:20] a mercenary army aligned with American [54:23] Empire, doing the bidding of American [54:24] Empire. It's fighting [54:26] in against Lebanon as well as Iraq. [54:32] The Iranians, they don't have much of an [54:33] air force, [54:35] but they use a lot of drones to [54:37] threaten. So, this is where we are so [54:40] far. According to the grand strategy, [54:43] we can predict how they will make their [54:46] moves over next few months, over next [54:48] few years. America [54:50] doesn't really care about this war [54:53] in Iraq. [54:54] Because what America wants to do [54:57] is force entire world to become [54:59] dependent on American weapons [55:01] and [55:02] resources. [55:04] And you do that in two ways. The first [55:06] is you control [55:08] the strategic choke points of the world. [55:12] And they include the Strait of Hormuz, [55:14] but you also want to control the Strait [55:16] of Malacca, [55:17] over here. Because that blocks off East [55:20] Asia. You also want to control the [55:22] Panama Canal. [55:23] You also want to control Greenland. You [55:24] also want to control the Strait of uh [55:26] Gibraltar. You can see the American Navy [55:29] extending outward and occupying all [55:31] these maritime choke points. [55:33] At the same time, you You to use your [55:35] technological supremacy, your air [55:37] supremacy, your drones [55:39] to destroy the world's critical energy [55:42] infrastructure. [55:44] Already we're seeing oil refineries [55:46] being destroyed throughout the world. [55:48] Oil refineries? Oil refineries, yes. So, [55:50] you as as America, you're trying to [55:53] deplete the world's energy inventory, so [55:57] they're forced to beg you [56:00] for to supply energy. [56:02] Right? And once this market is created, [56:04] then you can [56:06] build infrastructure for Venezuela. [56:08] You can take over Canada. You can [56:09] control Mexico. You can take over take [56:11] take over Greenland, okay? [56:13] The Russians have no choice but to [56:15] respond. [56:17] Because [56:18] if the Americans are controlling the [56:21] strategic choke points, [56:22] your shadow fleet [56:24] is rendered redundant, useless. [56:29] So, how do you ship your oil [56:33] around the world? We have two options. [56:36] I'm just going to build railways to [56:38] unite the Eurasian continent, okay? And [56:40] I'm I'm I'll transport my oil using [56:43] pipelines and railways. The problem with [56:44] that is now is now that you're [56:46] vulnerable to American air supremacy, [56:50] drone attacks. [56:51] So, you have no choice but to arm your [56:54] shadow fleet. And now, what's going to [56:57] happen is this [56:59] continent of oceans between Russian [57:02] shadow [57:04] fleet tankers that are trying to [57:06] transport oil around the world, and [57:07] these American [57:09] destroyers were trying to capture or [57:12] destroy the shadow tankers. [57:14] Now, the advantage that [57:16] Russia has is that America doesn't have [57:20] that much naval assets anymore. It used [57:22] to, but not anymore. [57:24] The other thing is that the world really [57:26] needs energy, so you can imagine China [57:29] financing [57:31] the militarization of the Russian shadow [57:33] fleet. Why would sir, why to the US try [57:35] and stop Russian boats? [57:39] Because um in this [57:42] global outlook [57:44] there are two nations that could provide [57:47] weapons [57:48] and resources to the rest of the world. [57:50] They are Russia and they are America. [57:52] So, if America is to become dominant, it [57:54] needs to blockade Russia. And what you [57:56] do that is by seizing [57:59] their shadow fleet. That could if this [58:00] were to happen, that would be an act of [58:01] war. [58:02] But it's already happening. What? [58:04] Really? Yes, it's already happening. [58:05] Where? Iranian [58:07] tankers have been seized by the [58:09] Americans. [58:10] And [58:11] tankers are being seized in the [58:13] Caribbean as well by the American Navy. [58:16] Whose tankers? [58:18] I believe they are Russian tankers. [58:20] Yes, the United States has indeed been [58:23] seizing tankers linked to Russia. A [58:25] major escalation occurred earlier this [58:26] year on January the 7th, 2026 when the [58:28] US military and Coast Guard intercepted [58:30] two sanctioned shadow fleet oil tankers. [58:34] While one was seized directly in the [58:35] Caribbean, the other involved a dramatic [58:37] chase that started in the Caribbean and [58:39] ended in the North Atlantic. [58:43] US forces captured the sanctioned tanker [58:45] during a pre-dawn raid directly in the [58:47] Caribbean Sea. The US military described [58:49] it as stateless sanctioned dark fleet [58:53] vessel which was engaged in illicit [58:55] activities. [58:57] These seizures are part of operation [58:59] Southern Spear, a strict enforcement of [59:01] the US embargo on Venezuelan oil [59:04] exports. Both vessels were targeted for [59:06] violating US sanctions by transporting [59:08] illicit crude oil linked to Venezuela [59:11] as well as Iran and Hezbollah. [59:14] And as you point out, this is an act of [59:15] war. [59:16] So, those were ships that didn't have a [59:19] country linked to them directly. That's [59:21] why they call shadow fleet tankers. [59:22] Okay. Yes, but they're essentially [59:24] Russian. But they were essentially [59:26] shipping oil outside of the United [59:28] States the United States wouldn't [59:30] control. Is that kind of [59:31] >> That is correct, yes. Okay. [59:32] >> Yes. So [59:34] >> So if the US said, "Listen, this is our [59:35] oil get lost." That is correct, yes. [59:37] Right? So what the US is doing is slowly [59:39] expanding its global reach. And what [59:42] it's doing that is by signing treaties [59:44] with nations that are part of these [59:46] choke points. So the Strait of Malacca, [59:48] which the United States has signed a [59:49] military cooperation agreement with [59:51] Indonesia. [59:52] And with the Strait of Gibraltar, uh the [59:54] Americans have signed an agreement now [59:55] with Morocco. [59:57] Right? So they are looking for the legal [59:58] framework and certification to control [60:01] the world's choke points, which would [60:03] bring them directly in conflict with the [60:05] Russian shadow fleet. So at some point [60:07] you think the way that the war starts is [60:10] the US Navy [60:11] attacks a Russian boat. [60:16] So I personally believe that this will [60:18] be a drawn-out process [60:20] that and there's no real concrete flash [60:23] point. Because not only [60:25] are Russian shadow flanker shadow [60:28] fleet tankers being seized, but remember [60:31] Russian oil farmers are being destroyed [60:33] by Ukrainian drones. And the Russians [60:34] believe that it is NATO that is [60:36] responsible for the sabotage. So what [60:39] what what do you think the catalyst [60:40] moment is [60:41] when this all kicks off? I think we're [60:43] already in the catalyst moment. I think [60:45] we're we're already in World War III [60:47] because [60:48] this conflict it's going to expand [60:50] outwards [60:51] uh into a global conflict and there's [60:53] nothing anyone can do to stop this, [60:55] right? Because again, you have these [60:56] different competing visions of how the [60:58] world should work and the Russians and [61:00] Americans are already at conflict with [61:02] each other. [61:03] So the next step will be the Russians [61:06] come into this war on the side of the [61:09] Iranians. You think that's going to [61:10] happen? I think that's going to happen [61:11] because according to Russian grand [61:13] strategy, you have no choice but to save [61:15] the Iranians. [61:16] Because you're trying to promote this [61:18] view that the world is split between the [61:20] spiritual and the material. The [61:22] Americans are the Antichrist. The [61:25] Americans support individual hedonism, [61:28] whereas we Russians, we believe in [61:31] humanity. We believe in goodness. We [61:33] believe in community. Right? So, if you [61:35] believe if you that is your argument, if [61:37] that's your grand strategy, you have a [61:38] more obligation, a more imperative to [61:40] help the Iranians in their time of need. [61:42] And in fact, Prime Prime Minister [61:45] Araghchi of of Iran has recently visited [61:48] Putin in Moscow. Putin Putin personally [61:51] received him [61:53] and said to Araghchi, "We, the Russian [61:55] people, admire your determination, your [61:58] resolve um against the Americans." And I [62:01] think that is a [62:03] sign that Putin has entered the chat and [62:07] that the Russians will start to help the [62:10] Iranians as this war progresses. So, [62:13] let's go back to this map, okay? [62:14] >> Okay. And the Americans have a [62:16] three-pronged strategy [62:19] to [62:21] strangle [62:22] um Iran. [62:24] The first is to use ground forces to [62:27] establish forward operating bases to [62:29] incite ethnic violence in the country. [62:32] The second is to block all the shipping [62:34] moves and cut off Iranian financing. The [62:37] third is to strangle Iran and cause the [62:40] people to rise up like against the [62:42] government, okay? [62:43] And the Russians So, if things stay the [62:46] stay as they are now, [62:49] America wins. Easily. [62:51] But, if Russia were to enter the war on [62:54] behalf of the Iranians, the first thing [62:56] that Russia would do is provide [62:59] Iran with reinforcement from the Caspian [63:02] Sea. Right? Because the Americans want [63:05] to knock out Iran's capacity to provide [63:08] food, water, and electricity to its [63:10] people. But, uh through the Caspian Sea, [63:12] the Russians can support the uh [63:15] Iranians. But, not only that, and this [63:17] is much more important, if the Russians [63:18] were to come in, they could also bring [63:20] the Chinese into the war on behalf of [63:22] the Iranians. And the Chinese could use [63:25] the Belt and Road Initiative, basically [63:26] the railway system, to reinforce Tehran [63:29] from [63:31] uh the [63:33] east. So now you can no longer strangle [63:35] Tehran because the Russians and the [63:36] Chinese are reinforcing Tehran. Then [63:39] what the Russians could do is provide [63:41] financing to the Iranians. Basically the [63:45] Iranian the Chi- sorry, the Chinese and [63:47] the Russians can say to Iranians, "Don't [63:49] worry about financing. We will give you [63:52] enough uh financing for you to continue [63:54] this war for as long as you want, and [63:56] we'll use our resources as collateral [63:59] for this financing." [64:01] Right? And the third thing, and this is [64:03] actually the most important, is that [64:06] Russia could put Iran [64:08] under its nuclear umbrella. [64:10] And this would negate the use of [64:12] tactical nuclear weapons. [64:15] Israelis and Americans, if they really [64:18] felt under pressure, [64:20] if they were really put in a corner, [64:21] they could always choose to use tactical [64:23] nuclear weapons. If the Russians were [64:25] involved, that negates [64:27] that option. [64:28] Right? So if the Russians get involved [64:31] in this war, they bring in the Chinese, [64:32] they provide they provide the resources [64:34] and the financing to continue this war [64:36] for as long as it takes. [64:38] Mhm. [64:40] Right? [64:41] And now the Americans need to expand [64:43] this war around the world to try now to [64:47] topple the government in Russia. [64:50] Because the Russians are the main [64:53] backers of the Iranians. [64:56] And you're predicting that Russia will [64:57] get involved here. According to the [65:00] grand strategy of Russia, the Russians [65:03] have no choice but to get involved [65:05] because what will happen is that if you [65:07] look at this map, if Iran were to be [65:10] conquered by the Americans or the [65:12] Israelis, the entire southern flank of [65:16] the Russians were now exposed [65:19] to possible attack. And that's that's [65:21] something that the Russians would never [65:23] allow to happen. [65:24] The sovereign flank, so what this from [65:27] underneath? [65:28] >> Basically, right? [65:29] Right? But not only that, but the [65:31] Americans already have close relations [65:33] with Azerbaijan. [65:36] And they already have bases in [65:37] Turkmenistan as well as Uzbekistan, [65:38] right? So, you can see how once the [65:41] Americans control this area, they can [65:43] now attack Russia from the south. But, [65:45] what's most important is [65:48] the issue of global trade, where like a [65:50] counter [65:51] to America's naval blockade is by [65:54] creating a Eurasian trade block that [65:57] involves Iran, Russia, and China. You [65:59] look at Russia's north-south corridor, [66:03] right? [66:04] You look at China's If you look at [66:06] Russia's north-south corridor, it runs [66:08] through Iran. If Russia wants to have [66:10] access to the Middle East as well as [66:11] Africa, it has to go through Iran. Look [66:13] at China's Belt and Road Initiative, it [66:14] goes through Iran as well. [66:16] So, by taking out Iran, you've blockaded [66:19] both Russia and China. [66:23] 70% of people who add something to their [66:24] online cart never actually buy it, and [66:27] that number is based on over 10 years of [66:29] research. But, what I think is even more [66:30] interesting is what the Baymard [66:32] Institute discovered. They're a private [66:33] research company that ran a study which [66:35] found the average e-commerce store can [66:37] increase its conversion rate by 35% just [66:41] by making its checkout easier. Not [66:43] better marketing or better products, but [66:44] by delivering a smoother checkout [66:46] experience. So, if you're looking for an [66:48] easy way to make your checkout process [66:50] smoother, I want you to think about [66:51] moving your business onto Shopify. It's [66:53] the platform we use to sell the 1% [66:55] diaries and the conversation cards [66:56] because it's so simple and smart to use. [66:59] It puts all of our inventory, payments, [67:01] and analytics in one place, and has so [67:03] many AI tools to help us get up and [67:05] running straight away. Not to mention [67:07] that it grows with you, regardless of [67:08] the stage that your business is at. So, [67:10] if you're ready to fix your checkout [67:11] process, sign up for your $1 per month [67:15] trial at shopify.com/bartlet. [67:18] That's shopify.com/bartlet, and don't [67:20] tell anybody. [67:22] I run multiple companies that have [67:23] multiple sales teams. And one of the [67:25] things as a founder of a company that's [67:27] often confusing is you find it hard to [67:29] figure out where sales are. So, about 10 [67:31] years ago, I started using Pipedrive in [67:33] my former company, and it's also the [67:35] reason why I switched over all of my [67:36] commercial teams in my current media [67:37] company called steven.com to use [67:39] Pipedrive as well. Not only do they [67:40] sponsor this show, but they've been an [67:42] incredibly effective way of scaling our [67:43] sales engine over the years. Pipedrive [67:45] is an easy-to-use intelligent CRM, and [67:48] at its very core, it makes your sales [67:50] process visible through one dashboard, a [67:53] visual pipeline showing every deal, what [67:56] stage it's in, what needs to happen [67:57] next, and it's all in real time with no [68:00] delay. It doesn't magically close the [68:02] deal for you, of course, but it does [68:03] replace complexity with clarity. If you [68:06] want to join over 100,000 companies [68:08] already using Pipedrive, you can use my [68:10] link for a 30-day free trial with no [68:12] credit card payment needed. Head to [68:14] pipedrive.com/ceo [68:17] to get started. That's [68:17] pipedrive.com/ceo. [68:21] I'll see you over there. [68:23] So, when do you think this was going to [68:25] happen? If you get it where to give me a [68:26] timeline of events you think are going [68:27] to occur. [68:28] What timeline do you think you're [68:30] operating under? I guess one of the [68:30] factors here is that [68:32] Trump only has what, 3 years left in [68:35] power. [68:36] So, [68:38] you know, he's presumably going to leave [68:40] power at some point soon. So, if you [68:42] were around, you might just want to play [68:43] it out and hope that there's a different [68:45] leadership in place by [68:47] by 20, what, be 2030? [68:50] The political leadership in Iran believe [68:52] that they can wait Trump out. So, [68:54] they're waiting for the midterms, [68:55] because they believe that in November, [68:57] the Democrats will win in the midterms, [68:59] and then they'll impeach Trump. [69:01] And basically constrain his capacity to [69:03] fight wars. [69:05] And worst case scenario [69:08] Trump will be gone [69:10] in 2020 as you point out. [69:12] There's some problems with this. The [69:14] first major problem is the national [69:16] defense strategy which we looked at [69:18] previously. [69:19] The national defense strategy, it is a [69:21] long-term strategic [69:24] framework for how America can control [69:26] the world. [69:28] And so one possibility is that Trump is [69:31] just creating enough chaos for America [69:33] to [69:34] to transition. When the Democrats come [69:36] to power, if they come to power, they [69:38] will institutionalize the strategy. And [69:41] we know this [69:42] as a possibility because in Trump's [69:45] first term he changed America's strategy [69:49] around the world. [69:50] And then when Biden came into power he [69:53] then institutionalized the strategy [69:56] uh via V China. Right? So it was Trump [69:59] who launched these [70:01] this terror war against China. And then [70:03] Biden comes in power, he [70:04] institutionalizes it. [70:06] Right? So I think World War III, it's a [70:07] much more [70:09] long-term [70:10] uh war of attrition. And I don't think [70:14] that this war [70:16] um will end anytime soon. [70:20] You've made a series of new predictions. [70:23] You've made eight new predictions. [70:24] >> Okay. [70:25] And I have them in this box here. Okay. [70:28] I'll let you review what those [70:30] predictions are. Okay. [70:33] Um this is one prediction. [70:36] Okay. [70:41] Okay. So this is my most controversial [70:43] prediction, okay? I predict that there [70:45] will be a use of war and Trump will get [70:47] a third term. [70:48] You think Trump will get a third term? [70:50] Isn't that constitutionally illegal? [70:53] There are things that are unconventional [70:56] and immoral [70:59] and wrong and evil and dangerous. [71:02] And there's certain things that are [71:04] illegal. [71:06] Trump getting a third term [71:08] is not illegal. [71:11] So, let me explain the loophole. [71:14] What Trump could do is this, okay? There [71:17] There two possibilities. The first [71:18] possibility is in 2028, he has his son, [71:22] Don Jr., run as a president [71:25] and he runs as the vice president. [71:28] And then when Don Jr. wins, if he wins, [71:31] then Don Jr. could abdicate [71:34] and Trump would be the president. [71:37] And in the Constitution, if you read the [71:39] Constitution very carefully, it doesn't [71:41] actually prohibit people from doing [71:44] that. It's not been done in the past. [71:47] And like no sane person [71:49] with any morality would do this. [71:53] But that doesn't stop Trump from from [71:55] doing this, okay? That's one [71:56] possibility. Another possibility is that [71:59] by 2028, America [72:02] is at war with everyone. There's a [72:05] national draft. [72:07] The president now has emergency war [72:09] powers. And so, he can actually suspend [72:12] the Constitution [72:13] and delay the election, which is what [72:15] Zelenskyy did in Ukraine. [72:17] So, these are two different [72:18] possibilities. [72:20] But I think that given [72:23] Trump's track record, [72:26] given his personality, [72:28] I think he very much [72:30] um wants a third term. [72:32] And I think that he will do everything [72:34] possible to get a third term. [72:38] He would turn 83 years old [72:41] in the same year that he finishes his [72:43] second term. [72:44] This is the man [72:46] who eats McDonald's hamburgers [72:51] every day. [72:53] He doesn't really work out. [72:55] Yet, [72:57] on the campaign trail, [72:58] he's able to go to two rallies a day. [73:02] And in each rally, there's 50,000 [73:04] people. And he will talk on and on and [73:08] on. [73:09] Then, [73:10] at night, when he should he should be [73:12] sleeping, he's either on Truth Social [73:16] tweeting about the world, or he's [73:18] calling up reporters and telling him or [73:20] her some confidential that he really [73:22] shouldn't be discussing with the media. [73:26] This is a man who is addicted to [73:30] attention. [73:32] This is a man who loves the spotlight. [73:35] He's lived all his life in the [73:36] spotlight. [73:37] For him, death [73:40] is [73:41] to be ignored. [73:43] So, given his personality, [73:45] he would rather die in office [73:48] than live [73:50] uh peacefully [73:52] somewhere else. And of those two [73:53] strategies that you named, where he puts [73:54] his son in and then becomes president [73:56] that way, or you know, there's a war [73:58] breaks out, so he has he says he has to [74:01] stay in office. Of those two strategies, [74:03] which one do you think he's more likely [74:04] to deploy? I actually think that, given [74:06] his narcissism, [74:08] he would prefer the first strategy. His [74:11] putting his son in? Because because that [74:13] shows himself and the world [74:15] that America loves him. [74:18] Okay. And it could also be Jared Kushner [74:20] or someone else, right? It doesn't have [74:21] to be his son necessarily. Trump does [74:23] not trust anyone. Trump has never had a [74:25] polit- polit In fact, everyone that's [74:28] really worked for Trump has been kind of [74:29] screwed over by him. Do you not think [74:31] that if his son decided to run and then [74:35] announced that the vice president was [74:36] his dad, [74:38] do you not think that there would be [74:41] such a huge backlash in the United [74:43] States that his son wouldn't win? [74:46] Well, I think there's a possibility that [74:49] they figure out how to cheat in 2028. [74:52] Oh, as in actually cheat the election. [74:55] Right. So, At the poll booth. [74:56] >> Right. So, let's go into Trump's mind, [74:59] all right? His [75:00] his psychology. [75:01] In his mind, [75:03] he won in 2020. [75:06] The people voted for him. [75:09] But the Democrats [75:10] stole the election with mail-in ballots [75:13] and by rigging the election machines. [75:17] Okay? He In his mind, he literally [75:18] believes that. [75:20] So, in his mind, he believes that this [75:22] is actually his third term, and the [75:25] people [75:26] and the government, they owe him a [75:29] second term, which is what he wants now. [75:31] He wants [75:33] uh compensation for having the election [75:35] stolen from him in 2020. [75:38] I find it really um really [75:40] implausible to think that Trump would [75:42] run and would run for a third time. [75:45] So, again, this is a prediction. [75:47] >> Yeah. And it is a test of the validity [75:51] of my theoretical framework. [75:54] I was looking at some of the [75:55] the constitutions and the laws, and it [75:58] says that the 22nd Amendment explicitly [76:01] states, "No person shall be elected to [76:03] the office of the president more than [76:04] twice." [76:05] Some theorists have tried to argue that [76:07] since the amendment says elected, a [76:09] person might be able to serve a third [76:11] time if they were appointed to succeed [76:13] to the role. [76:14] He's not [76:15] >> If they were appointed or succeeded to [76:16] the role, e.g., by being vice president [76:19] first. [76:20] Legal scholars and the judicial [76:22] community [76:24] almost universally reject this. The 12th [76:26] Amendment requires that anyone serving [76:28] as vice president must be eligible to be [76:30] president. Since a two-term president is [76:33] ineligible to be elected again, they're [76:35] legally barred from being vice [76:37] president. So, the point is there's [76:40] nothing explicit in the constitution [76:43] that bars someone [76:45] from having a third term. Mhm. And [76:47] there's debate in the legal community [76:50] about the spirit [76:52] of the 22nd Amendment. It would go to [76:54] the Supreme Court, right? [76:55] >> And the Supreme Court's controlled right [76:57] now by the conservatives. Trump Trump [76:59] appointed three of the nine justices, [77:02] and there's a possibility he gets a [77:03] fourth later in the year. [77:06] So, it's entirely up to the Supreme [77:07] Court whether or not he can run. And [77:09] again, there's nothing explicit in the [77:11] constitution that forbids him from [77:13] running [77:14] as vice president. Okay. [77:17] What's your next prediction? [77:19] The My second prediction is there'll be [77:20] a grand bargain between the United [77:22] States and China. What does that mean? [77:25] It means that people expect that the [77:28] United States and China will go to war [77:31] at some point over Taiwan. [77:34] It means A lot of people expect that [77:36] China wants to challenge American [77:38] hegemony and replace America as the [77:41] global superpower. [77:43] But China does not want to do that. [77:46] China's probably happy [77:48] with America being the world's hegemon, [77:51] because you have to invest so much of [77:53] your resources into fighting these wars [77:56] that bankrupt your nation. China China [77:58] China doesn't want to fight these wars. [78:01] So, what China's going to do is try to [78:04] triangulate between Russia [78:06] and the United States. This is what [78:08] happened during the Cold War, when China [78:11] was not actually on the side of the [78:12] Soviet Union. China was part of the [78:14] non-aligned community. [78:18] And that's what China's going to strive [78:19] for in World War III, where China may [78:22] help out Iran, may provide financing for [78:25] Russia, but it's also going to strike [78:26] deals with the United States as well. [78:28] Mhm. Okay. [78:29] So, I think that Trump and President Xi [78:34] are supposed to meet at least three [78:36] times, possibly four times [78:38] this year. Only this year. The first [78:40] will be [78:41] in mid-May in Beijing. [78:43] And I think that they will start a [78:45] process [78:46] in which China and America come to an [78:49] arrangement that benefits both [78:52] economically. [78:53] What does America want? America wants [78:55] China to continue to buy US Treasuries [78:59] in order to finance the American debt. [79:01] What does China want? China wants energy [79:04] resources from the Western Hemisphere [79:08] and it wants to access the American [79:09] market. Mhm. So, there's no reason why [79:13] China and America cannot come to an [79:16] arrangement that benefits both. And [79:18] Trump is very much a transactional [79:20] character. And what will that mean for [79:22] the world? [79:24] It means that China is not really part [79:27] of World War in a meaningful way. [79:29] Okay. So, they're going to do a deal. [79:31] They'll continue to work together as [79:32] friends. [79:33] But China or will be friends of both [79:35] Russia and the United States as Russia [79:37] and the United States fight each other. [79:38] Okay. [79:39] What's your next prediction? [79:43] Iran is another forever war and the [79:45] United States will institute a national [79:47] draft. [79:48] Iran is another forever war and the [79:49] United States will institute a national [79:51] draft. So, you think Iran is going to [79:54] Iran as a war is going to tumble on for [79:56] decades and that the US are going to [79:58] draft people which means you're [80:01] obliged to go and fight. Exactly. Okay. [80:04] So, [80:05] the logic is this. [80:07] America doesn't really care [80:10] if Iran [80:12] is defeated or not. That's not really [80:13] part of the American grand strategy. [80:15] Iran right now is a perfect pretext for [80:19] America to expand outwards and establish [80:22] maritime choke points around the world. [80:24] And to force the world to buy American [80:28] energy. [80:29] So, this war in Iran benefits America [80:32] tremendously. So, why not have it go on [80:34] for a long, long time? [80:37] In order to make sure this war goes on [80:39] for a long time, you need ground troops. [80:44] And you need a lot of ground troops. [80:46] And that's why you need a national [80:47] draft. [80:48] So, what would a national draft look [80:50] like in the United States? Everyone [80:51] between the age of 18 and 25 has to sign [80:53] up to the army. Right. So, most people [80:55] don't appreciate this, but America has [80:57] always had a draft. But, for the longest [80:59] time, it didn't really care [81:02] whether or not you actually signed for [81:03] the draft. And starting in December, [81:05] participation in the draft will be [81:07] automatic. Meaning that if you're [81:08] between 18 and 24 [81:10] in America and you're male, you'll be [81:13] automatically put into the draft system. [81:15] From when? I mean, from December. This [81:17] year? Yes, that that is correct. Yes. [81:19] So, between the age of 18 and 25, you [81:21] think? And what does that What does that [81:22] really mean? Well, I've never not really [81:23] experienced that in my lifetime. So, it [81:25] means that if you're between the age of [81:26] 18 and 24, either gender? No, male. [81:29] Male, then you have to sign up for the [81:31] army. [81:32] No, you're already put into a draft. [81:35] >> Oh, you're already Okay, but you might [81:37] be called upon. That's right. It's a [81:38] lottery system. Okay. Right. [81:41] And uh this created a lot of backlash [81:43] during the Vietnam era. [81:45] And so, they sort of toned it down. [81:47] But, starting in December, they just [81:49] passed a law that says that starting in [81:50] December, um you will be automatically [81:53] registered [81:54] for for the They've passed them all. [81:56] Yes, they have. [81:58] Well, in theory, Congress first needs to [81:59] declare war. Okay, fine. [82:01] >> Right? That's the first step. And [82:03] Congress has not actually declared war [82:05] yet. Okay. So, you think there'll be a [82:07] draft and you think this will This war [82:09] in Iran is going to trickle on for [82:11] a long time. How long? 10, 20 years? [82:13] Like Afghanistan or I don't see it [82:15] stopping. Okay. Yeah. [82:18] What's next in your prediction box? [82:20] Okay. [82:22] Okay, this is pretty bad. The world will [82:25] move towards an AI surveillance state. [82:27] I feel like that's already happening. [82:29] I think it's pretty obvious. Yeah. What [82:31] does that mean in reality for the [82:32] average person? Because you know, we're [82:33] seeing some of these big companies like [82:36] OpenAI and Anthropic all sort of signing [82:38] up to government um military [82:41] surveillance projects. [82:43] What does that mean for the average [82:44] person? Right. So, for the average [82:45] person, it means two things. It means [82:47] digital ID and digital currency. [82:49] Okay. So, what that what that will allow [82:51] is for the government to basically [82:52] monitor everything you do online and [82:54] control all financial transactions. It [82:57] it can basically program [82:59] your bank account. So, like, you can't [83:01] buy cigarettes [83:03] or you can't buy drugs. Um and this will [83:06] allow the government to basically [83:09] um categorize everyone and put everyone [83:11] into a certain database [83:13] to monitor that person. And once you [83:15] have once you're able to categorize [83:17] everyone, you're allowed then you're you [83:20] are able to use AI to predict their [83:22] behavior. Isn't this what goes on in [83:24] some parts of the This is what goes on [83:26] in China. [83:27] And that's how I know about this. [83:29] How does it work in China? [83:31] Well, in China, we all have digital ID. [83:34] If you want to access anything in China, [83:37] you need your digital ID. So, you want [83:39] to open a bank account, you have to you [83:41] have to use um a digital ID. If you want [83:43] to use any uh e-payments, you have to [83:47] use digital ID. If you want to use a [83:48] phone, [83:49] you have to use digital ID, okay? So, [83:52] everyone's part of this national [83:53] database. [83:54] And this this allows government to do is [83:57] basically monitor everything you do. [84:00] Because basically, depending on how you [84:03] buy things, I can then extrapolate to [84:05] figure out your behavior. [84:09] And then I can figure out your thinking. [84:11] Right? And then I can create incentives [84:15] in order to guide [84:17] and control your behavior. So, in China, [84:20] can they see everything that you do? [84:22] Yes, they can. [84:23] Messages you send? Everything. Payments [84:25] you make? [84:26] >> Everything. [84:27] Everything. [84:29] Everything you do online is being [84:31] recorded [84:32] and is being [84:34] inputted into the database [84:36] to [84:37] figure out who you are, [84:40] what you want, [84:41] and how to control you. [84:43] And they think this is progress, by the [84:45] way. [84:46] This is progress because I'm making you [84:48] a better person, right? [84:50] I'm helping you achieve your dream. I'm [84:52] I'm helping you lose weight. I'm helping [84:55] you avoid drugs. I'm helping you work [84:57] harder. [84:58] Wouldn't you be in trouble if you talk [85:00] against this system? [85:03] Well, [85:04] me personally, okay. So, I operate in a [85:07] gray area where I do not interact with [85:09] the Chinese internet. [85:11] So, everything I do is in English. It's [85:13] meant for consumption in the Western [85:16] world. [85:17] And um I I don't talk to Chinese [85:19] reporters. I don't talk to Chinese [85:21] social media. I've no Chinese media [85:23] presence. [85:25] And I am not at all influential in [85:28] China. And I prefer it that way because [85:30] if I be ever became famous in China, [85:33] then they would obviously want to [85:35] control [85:37] me in order to better influence other [85:39] people. [85:40] Huh. [85:41] What's your next prediction? [85:44] Israel will achieve the greater Israel [85:46] project. So, you think Israel are going [85:48] to conquer the Middle East? [85:51] Israel has essentially already conquered [85:53] the Middle East. The only force in their [85:56] way right now is America. [85:58] So, once America leaves the Middle East, [86:01] which I expect to happen, then Israel [86:04] will absorb CENTCOM, which is the um [86:07] Central Command, the American military [86:08] bases in the Middle East, and they will [86:11] achieve the greater Israel project. [86:13] There's no other power in in Middle East [86:15] that can withstand the might and power [86:18] of Israel. [86:20] And do you have a timeline for this? [86:22] The moment America quits this war [86:24] against Iran, the moment that America [86:26] leaves [86:28] the Middle East, [86:29] Israel will achieve the greater Israel [86:31] project. And what's really interesting [86:33] right now is that Israel's trying to [86:35] drag this war out for as long as [86:37] possible because they see this war as a [86:40] way to destroy all its major enemies in [86:43] the um Middle East. You know, [86:47] they It's really It's already said this. [86:49] After Iran, Turkey is next. [86:51] >> Turkey, hm. [86:52] Turkey is next. This war is already [86:54] destroying Saudi Arabia and the GCC, [86:56] right? So, the last opponent is Turkey. [87:00] Once Turkey is brought into this war, [87:04] then [87:06] Israel will achieve the greater Israel [87:07] project. [87:08] And the greater Israel project covers [87:10] all of this region here from Turkey, [87:12] Egypt, Yemen, Oman. Is so the greater [87:15] Israel project is like this, okay? So, [87:18] it goes from the Nile in Egypt to the [87:21] Euphrates in Iraq. And it covers part of [87:25] Turkey, all Syria, all Lebanon, all [87:27] Jordan, and parts of Saudi Arabia, which [87:30] also includes Mecca and Medina. [87:32] What is your next prediction? [87:35] NATO and Russia will fight for Odessa. [87:38] Odessa? What's Odessa? [87:40] So, if you look at the uh Ukraine front [87:43] lines, right now Russia is preoccupied [87:47] in trying to control [87:49] uh the Donbas, which is basically [87:51] eastern Ukraine. [87:52] Why Russia is doing this is that eastern [87:55] Ukraine has historically been part of [87:57] Russia, therefore most people there [87:59] speak Russian and are are ethnically [88:01] Russian. [88:03] The Donbas is also the agricultural and [88:05] industrial heartland [88:07] of Ukraine. So, if Russia were to [88:11] control east eastern in Ukraine, it [88:13] doesn't really need Western Ukraine. [88:15] And then Western Ukraine would basically [88:16] become a rump state. It'd be useless, [88:18] right? So, the last piece to this puzzle [88:21] would be Odessa, which sits on the Black [88:24] Sea. The reason why you want Odessa [88:27] is that it is the major port. [88:31] And once you control Odessa, you [88:33] basically block off Ukraine from the [88:36] Black Sea. You have complete control [88:37] over the Black Sea. The Black Sea is [88:39] that the Black Sea? This is the Black [88:40] Sea and this is Odessa right here. Yes. [88:42] Okay, so you're saying that you Russia [88:43] will take take Odessa. That's correct. [88:47] Okay, so they'll control the Black Sea. [88:49] That's right. But NATO recognizes that [88:52] if Odessa falls to the Russians, the war [88:54] is over. [88:55] And Russia will have achieved all its [88:57] major strategic objectives. Why is the [88:59] war over? [89:00] Because Russia doesn't want to continue [89:02] on after Odessa. It doesn't need that [89:06] of of Ukraine. [89:07] >> Like what does it get from taking [89:08] Odessa? [89:09] Once they take Odessa, control of [89:13] 1/3 [89:14] of the world's carbohydrates. [89:16] If Russia willed it, [89:18] Africa [89:20] would starve to death. [89:22] The Middle East would starve. Why? [89:25] Because Russia and Ukraine export a lot [89:27] of grain to these places. These places [89:30] are not food independent. They rely on [89:33] fertilizer. They rely on food imports. [89:36] Okay. And Russia's using the the Black [89:39] Sea here to export. Exactly. Okay. [89:42] What is your next prediction? This is [89:43] the last one. [89:47] Please be good. [89:48] Okay. I was hoping for an optimistic [89:50] one. But East Asia breaks out into [89:52] conflict. [89:54] Okay, what do you mean by that? Okay. [89:56] So, we've talked a lot about the Middle [89:58] East and we've talked briefly about [90:00] Europe, okay? So, now let's go into [90:03] East Asia. [90:04] And I think there are three major [90:07] sources of friction [90:11] and conflict in East Asia and these [90:13] could be potentially major flash points. [90:16] The first flash point is of course over [90:20] Taiwan. [90:21] Cuz China believes that Taiwan [90:24] is part [90:27] of its territory and so it wants to take [90:31] over [90:32] uh Taiwan. The problem with this is The [90:34] problem with this is that [90:35] the recently Prime Minister Sanae [90:37] Takaichi of Japan has said [90:40] that Taiwan is core to Japanese [90:44] strategic interests. What she means [90:46] by this is that [90:48] Japan [90:50] has no resources. It's a manufacturing [90:52] power [90:53] that depends on resources from overseas. [90:56] If China were to take over Taiwan, it [90:59] can now block Japan from accessing the [91:02] Strait of Malacca. [91:03] And that's a policy that Japan cannot [91:06] permit. So Japan would fight [91:10] to ensure that Taiwan and China were [91:13] never to unify. [91:17] Would they actually? Because China is so [91:19] strong, right? Can they just knock Japan [91:21] straight out? Japan has no choice but to [91:24] fight because again if China and Taiwan [91:28] were to unify peacefully Japan would be [91:31] cut off from the entirety of Southeast [91:35] Asia. And Japan relies on Southeast Asia [91:39] historically for resources. [91:42] Why would it be cut off from Southeast [91:43] Asia? Can't it just [91:45] go go down here to through the [91:47] Philippines? [91:48] There's a lot of resources around the [91:50] South China Sea. Okay. Right. Oil, [91:53] minerals, all of that. Yeah. [91:55] >> Um [91:56] so [91:58] if China and Taiwan were to uh unify [92:03] basically uh Japan would feel a bit [92:06] threatened. [92:08] And your prediction is that there will [92:09] be some kind of conflict in this region. [92:11] Yeah, so so that's the first flashpoint, [92:13] okay? Taiwan. There's another [92:14] flashpoint, which is Strait of Malacca, [92:17] right? Because again, America wants to [92:18] control the Strait of Malacca, but China [92:20] recognizes that the Strait of Malacca is [92:22] key to its economic survival. And so [92:26] there's a lot conflict over the Strait [92:28] of Malacca, okay? That's flashpoint [92:29] number two. [92:30] The third flashpoint, which I think [92:32] would be the most surprising [92:34] but actually will be the most [92:36] uh pressing [92:37] is North Korea. [92:39] Okay? So, let's just use game theory. [92:41] We are [92:43] the leader, supreme leader of North [92:44] Korea. [92:46] It is a dictatorship. Everyone worships [92:49] me. It is is a cult personality. [92:51] But we're poor. [92:53] And the rest of the world is in [92:55] conflict, right? Europe is fighting with [92:58] Russia, the Middle East is in flames, [93:01] America's distracted trying to control [93:03] the world to the best of its ability, [93:05] Japan and China are fighting over the [93:07] South China Sea. [93:09] If you are North Korea [93:11] now [93:12] is the best opportunity to create as [93:15] much havoc in the world as possible. [93:18] There's absolutely nothing they and I [93:20] can do to stop you. [93:23] You are the brawler in high school that [93:27] no one pays attention to because all the [93:29] big boys are fighting each other. You [93:30] can come in and dominate the school now. [93:33] Who would they be dominating? They could [93:35] dominate South Korea. [93:36] Because if you just look at uh a [93:40] population map of South Korea [93:42] most of South Korean population is [93:44] located in Seoul, and Seoul is about [93:47] about 20 minutes artillery [93:49] from North Korea. So, in 20 minutes [93:52] uh North Korea could rain artillery onto [93:54] Seoul and like basically they flatten [93:57] their whole city. [93:59] Why wouldn't you extort the South [94:00] Koreans? Because the South Koreans are [94:02] going to shoot back. [94:04] With what? Do they not have military? [94:06] They're being protected by the Americans [94:07] right now, and Americans are busy [94:08] transporting artillery and weapon [94:11] systems, including the THAAD system, [94:13] over to the Middle East. [94:15] It's called THAAD. T H A A D [94:19] It used to be in South Korea to protect [94:21] against North Korea, and now it's over [94:23] in the Middle East. [94:27] So, Americans are cannibalizing both [94:29] South Korea and Japan in order to [94:31] maintain this war in the Middle East. [94:35] Now's the time. [94:36] Why not? It's free money. It's like [94:38] taking candy from a baby. [94:40] But South Korea have their own military, [94:42] though. [94:43] How do you defend against artillery [94:45] strikes? [94:47] Uh I don't know. You don't. [94:50] But but they they they they would fire [94:51] back, right? You'd get they'd get [94:52] themselves into a pretty ugly war. South [94:54] Korea have a have a big military. Well, [94:56] my people are poor. They're not afraid [94:58] to die. In fact, I've sent thousands of [95:01] them to go to Ukraine to fight for the [95:03] Russians, and [95:05] they fight to the death. [95:07] Because they're poor, and if they don't [95:08] fight to the death, if they're allowed [95:10] to be taken prisoner, I'll kill their [95:11] families back at home. [95:14] South Koreans are rich. [95:17] They are used to democracy. They use [95:19] individual rights. [95:21] So, if I threaten to blow your city up, [95:24] you're telling me you won't bribe me not [95:26] to do so? [95:28] Isn't Isn't the fastest, quickest way is [95:30] to bribe me not to cause trouble for [95:32] you? Okay, so you think they're going to [95:34] bribe them? Extortion. This is [95:35] extortion. I don't need to destroy South [95:38] Korea. All I need to do is is basically [95:40] threaten the South Koreans, [95:43] and they'll just like [95:44] bribe me not to do anything. [95:46] So, what does all of this stuff mean for [95:47] the average person? [95:49] You know, people listening right now, [95:50] they're just normal people. A lot of [95:52] them. Not all of them, but a lot of them [95:54] are just normal people getting on with [95:55] their lives and they care about their [95:56] families, their their jobs, their [95:57] futures. What does [95:59] What what message have you got for them? [96:01] In this new world, [96:03] we will need leaders. [96:06] We will need average people [96:09] who are able to bring hope [96:13] to the to people around them. [96:15] Who are able to tell their neighbors, [96:18] their friends, [96:19] we have to come together [96:21] as a community [96:23] and become a family if we are to [96:24] survive. [96:28] That's what the world needs [96:30] in the future. [96:31] It will need [96:33] um entrepreneurial leaders. [96:35] It will need visionaries. It will need [96:37] prophets. Those who will most thrive are [96:40] those who make an effort [96:42] to reach out, [96:44] knock on the door [96:46] of your neighbors and say, "Listen, [96:48] there's a blackout. [96:49] And [96:51] there's probably no water. [96:53] But, [96:54] don't fear because if we come together [96:57] as a community, [96:58] if we go and knock on everyone's doors, [97:00] then everyone in this apartment [97:02] building, and there will be 100 of us, [97:03] we just sit down [97:05] and have a meeting and just discuss [97:09] what's happening, one of us [97:12] will come up with a solution. [97:14] And one of us will help everyone else [97:16] figure out how [97:18] to find water or how to [97:21] build a better society. And we know this [97:23] because historically this has always [97:24] been true. When empires collapse, [97:27] infrastructure collapses. Which empire [97:29] do you think is collapsing? The United [97:30] States empire? [97:32] Uh the United States empire is [97:33] collapsing, yes. [97:36] And who is taking its place? No one can [97:38] take the place of American empire. So, [97:40] we live in a unipolar moment. And the [97:42] closest historical analogy to today is [97:46] something called the Bronze Age [97:47] collapse. The Bronze Bronze Age. [97:49] >> The Bronze Age collapse. This happened [97:52] um about over 3,000 years ago. [97:55] And what happened during the Bronze Age [97:57] collapse is that [97:59] you have these established kingdoms [98:02] throughout the Middle East and Europe. [98:05] You have Mycenaean uh Greece. You had [98:08] the Hittite uh Empire in Anatolia, which [98:10] is present-day Turkey. You had uh the [98:13] Mesopotamian [98:14] Empire and the Egyptians. [98:16] Um and one by one [98:19] they collapsed. The reason why was that [98:21] a perfect storm of calamities came at [98:24] the same time. There were earthquakes. [98:25] There were famines. There was a climate [98:27] crisis. There were wars. There were [98:28] civil wars. There were revolutions. And [98:30] so you have this massive surge of [98:32] refugees, called the Sea Peoples, [98:34] flowing from north and [98:37] uh West Europe and sweeping the entire [98:40] sweeping food to the entire entire [98:43] Middle East. And the reason why is they [98:46] were hungry. They didn't have any food [98:48] to eat. So they organized into [98:51] um you know, these large pirate armies [98:53] and they overwhelmed [98:55] uh entire civilizations. [98:57] And so we're see we will see a version [98:59] of this dynamic play out in the world [99:02] where in the future [99:05] our concern won't be [99:08] wars. Our concern will be these millions [99:10] of refugees who want to flood into our [99:13] societies because they're hungry. [99:17] And they're going to come from Africa. [99:19] They're going to come from the Middle [99:21] East. They'll probably come from South [99:23] America as well. [99:26] So I saw your show with Steve Keen, by [99:27] the way. [99:28] Steve Keen? Yeah. It was a great show, [99:30] right? He talked about this where look [99:34] the world depends on fertilizer. Mhm. [99:36] And there's 8 billion people in the [99:37] world. Without fertilizers, the world [99:40] can only sustain [99:41] at most two billion people. [99:44] Well, what what are the six billion [99:46] people going to do? Just starve to [99:47] death? No, they're they're going to [99:49] migrate. [99:50] And they're going to want food. And it's [99:52] going to create a huge [99:54] global crisis throughout the world. [99:57] I mean, one might argue that with the [99:58] rise of things like AI and robotics, the [100:00] cost of production is going to drop and [100:02] there's going to be more, you know, Elon [100:04] talks about the age of abundance [100:06] and all these kinds of things. But you [100:07] have to grow food out of the ground. [100:10] And you are using fertilizer to maximize [100:14] the land's capacity to grow food. So you [100:16] don't have fertilizer, you can have as [100:18] many robots as you want. They don't have [100:20] to eat food, we have to eat food. [100:23] So what is your um you talked about [100:24] hopefulness? [100:26] Right. Are you hopeful? [100:28] I'm very hopeful. What are you hopeful [100:29] for? [100:32] I believe that humans are first and [100:35] foremost creative and resilient. [100:38] And our abilities have become dormant [100:41] because we've become too complacent. [100:43] Western lifestyle have made us um [100:47] extremely lazy and fat. [100:51] And but the moment we're presented with [100:53] crisis, [100:54] the moment that we find our families in [100:57] danger, [100:59] we're able to come together as a people [101:02] and come up with all this tremendous [101:03] imagination in order to make a better [101:06] society. [101:08] Make sure you keep what I'm about to say [101:09] to yourself. I'm inviting 10,000 of you [101:12] to come even deeper into the Diary of a [101:13] CEO. Welcome to my inner circle. This is [101:17] a brand new private community that I'm [101:19] launching to the world. We have so many [101:20] incredible things that happen that you [101:22] are never shown. We have the briefs that [101:25] are on my iPad when I'm recording the [101:26] conversation. We have clips we've never [101:28] released. We have behind the scenes [101:30] conversations with the guest and also [101:31] the episodes that we've never ever [101:34] released and so much more. In the [101:37] circle, you'll have direct access to me. [101:39] You can tell us what you want this show [101:40] to be, who you want us to interview, and [101:42] the types of conversations you would [101:43] love us to have. But, remember, for now, [101:46] we're only inviting the first 10,000 [101:48] people that join before it closes. So, [101:50] if you want to join our private closed [101:52] community, head to the link in the [101:53] description below or go to [101:54] doacircle.com. [101:58] I will speak to you then. [102:01] Professor, what's the most important [102:02] thing we haven't talked about that we [102:03] should have talked about? [102:06] So, let's talk about the nature of [102:07] reality. [102:08] To explain the nature of reality, [102:10] um I'm going to explain Plato's allegory [102:14] of the cave, [102:15] which he talked about in his book, The [102:16] Republic. [102:18] Right, exactly. This book. Yes, The [102:19] Republic, okay? One of the masterpieces [102:21] of Greek civilization as well as Western [102:23] civilization. All right. So, this is how [102:25] Plato [102:27] explains the nature of reality. [102:30] And so, he uses a metaphor called the [102:32] cave. So, I want you to imagine a dark [102:37] cavern [102:39] that is huge. Mhm. And in this cavern, [102:42] there are [102:43] hundreds of people [102:45] lined up together. [102:48] And [102:50] they're all sitting in a row, [102:51] and this goes on for, you know, miles [102:54] and miles, just thousands of people. [102:57] And they are chained [102:59] to the ground. [103:01] And they're next or shackled, so they [103:02] can't actually move. [103:04] And all they can do is stare in front of [103:06] them at a giant wall that's empty. [103:11] Okay? [103:12] Now, [103:13] behind these people, and again, they [103:16] can't they can't see behind them, right? [103:19] Is a great fire. [103:21] Along the alongside this fire are [103:24] people, okay? We don't know who they [103:25] are. They they'll never explain who [103:27] these people are. They take puppets, [103:30] and they project these puppets off the [103:32] fire onto [103:34] the wall. [103:38] And [103:41] when people see [103:43] the shadows, [103:44] they think that this is reality. [103:48] And as such, they begin to create [103:51] narratives [103:52] to explain this reality. They create [103:55] language. They give shadows names. [103:57] They explain where these shadows come [103:58] from. They create religion. [104:00] Then these people decide to specialize. [104:04] So some people who are priests who [104:06] explain this new religion. There are [104:08] some people who are poets that talk [104:10] about the beauty of the shadows. [104:13] And then you have teachers who teach [104:16] about the shadows to children. [104:20] And then over time, what happens is that [104:24] these people [104:26] fall in love [104:28] with this reality. [104:31] So that they are addicted to it. [104:33] So if anyone comes along and says, "Hey [104:36] guys, why don't you look behind you and [104:39] see it's all just a farce?" [104:41] These people will be so angry that they [104:43] kill this person. [104:46] All right? So I'm not sure if you've [104:47] ever watched a Korean drama. Have you [104:49] Have you watched a Korean TV drama? Not [104:51] really, no. [104:52] >> All right. So unfortunately, I have. And [104:54] these things go on for like thousands of [104:57] hours. Mhm. [104:58] And the first first 10 hours, you're [105:00] disgusted [105:02] by the plot. [105:04] Uh because it makes no sense. But by [105:07] sometime by by the 20th hour, you can't [105:09] stop watching it. [105:11] >> Mhm. All right? The same situation here [105:13] where it's a it's a silly television [105:15] drama. It's all fake. But once people [105:18] watch too much of it, [105:20] they want it to be true. [105:23] Okay? And that's the nature of reality [105:25] that we live in. All right? So, certain [105:26] things to remember is [105:29] that what creates this reality [105:32] are not [105:34] the people in charge. What creates this [105:36] reality is our imagination. [105:39] Okay. [105:40] So, the first thing to appreciate is [105:42] that [105:43] everything is a hallucination. [105:46] And this is something that [105:46] neuroscientists have confirmed. So, what [105:49] we're going to do is we're going to take [105:50] Plato's allegory of the cave, the [105:52] framework, [105:53] and then apply it to our reality to [105:55] understand how it's created. Okay? So, [106:00] in the first layer, you need a power, a [106:03] force, to put people in chains, right? [106:08] And this is what we call the [106:10] military-industrial complex of America [106:12] as well as the empire. [106:13] So, going back to this example, it's the [106:16] layer that puts the people into chains. [106:19] But now, the second step is you need [106:21] people to create the reality, to direct [106:24] people's attention, to create the game. [106:26] And this [106:28] these people are the financial elite, [106:30] the Bank of International Settlements [106:32] based in Basel. [106:34] So, what do they do? [106:36] These people are the ones who set the [106:38] the exchange currency rates. And they [106:40] also allow for seamless [106:44] financial transactions, the Swift [106:46] system, basically. [106:47] Then, Wall Street [106:50] and the City of London were the [106:51] financiers. [106:54] And then you have the Federal Reserve. [106:55] The Federal Reserve system. Because the [106:57] Federal Reserve are the people who print [106:59] money. [107:01] Okay. [107:02] Now, [107:03] once you create the rules of the game, [107:06] you need to create the game itself, [107:08] which is the global economy. [107:09] Right? [107:11] Global economy. [107:13] And obviously, this is a pretty vast [107:16] system that encompasses everything, [107:18] okay? [107:20] Now, you have to explain to people how [107:22] the global economy works. [107:23] You cannot tell people, "Oh, really, [107:26] there are these secret people working on [107:28] the scenes that are projecting shadows [107:30] onto a wall." [107:31] So, what you do is you create [107:33] multilateral organizations that pretend [107:36] to [107:37] control the global economy, and they are [107:39] the World Bank, United Nations, [107:41] WTO. [107:43] You make people believe that this is all [107:45] being controlled impartially for our [107:49] benefit. [107:52] Now, you have to convince people that [107:54] the system [107:55] is legitimate. [107:57] That what you're actually seeing the [107:58] shadows on the wall, they're real. And [108:00] that's why you need [108:02] the media. [108:03] That's why you need [108:05] culture such as Hollywood, movies [108:07] basically. And you need [108:10] education, school system. [108:12] Okay? These are the people who who are [108:14] all prisoners who have become leaders of [108:17] the prisoners and who are [108:19] helping them understand the shadows on [108:21] the wall. [108:22] So, am I in the media? [108:24] Yes, you are. Am I? Yes. So, am I What [108:26] am I doing? What Am I one of the people [108:27] in the fire controlling the narrative? [108:29] Is that what Yes. Yes. But how But I I'm [108:32] not owned by anybody. [108:34] That's what you think. Oh, really? Yes. [108:36] And who who am I owned by? [108:38] Ultimately, it's the people who control [108:40] the fire that are in charge, right? So, [108:43] ultimately, it's these people, the [108:44] second layer. Okay. [108:45] >> The game masters, the financial elite [108:47] that control everything. And the [108:49] financial elite then are like the World [108:50] Bank, you said. No. No. The financial [108:53] elite are these private bankers. Okay, [108:56] so are the private bankers controlling [108:57] me? [108:58] Cuz you said I was in the media. Do you [109:00] want to make money? [109:01] Yeah. Then they're controlling you. [109:03] Okay. Right? [109:04] How are they controlling me? Because [109:06] they control the creation of money. [109:09] And so, [109:10] now that you have the media, [109:13] the schools, and the cultural systems [109:17] helping people understand the shadows on [109:19] the wall, [109:20] these shadows now [109:22] become internalized. And they dictate [109:25] the [109:26] values and norms of people, what they [109:28] believe to be good and bad. [109:30] They dictate habits and customs, how you [109:33] live your life. [109:34] And they dictate the legal system, who's [109:36] punished [109:37] for what. Okay? And this becomes a top [109:41] edifice. [109:42] And what's amazing about the system [109:44] is that in our minds, okay? In our [109:47] minds, we believe that the system is, [109:50] first of all, the complete opposite. [109:53] Where where the foundation is actually [109:57] the laws, the habits, and the values. [110:00] When in fact, in reality, [110:02] these are just figments of our [110:03] imagination. Okay? That's point one. [110:06] Point two is that this is a very very [110:09] delicate structure. So, if anyone [110:12] doesn't cooperate, okay? [110:14] Then this is this edifice collapses. [110:16] It's because it's a very very delicate [110:17] system, okay? [110:19] And the third thing, and this is the [110:20] most important to understand the world [110:21] that we live in, [110:22] as this system becomes much more wobbly, [110:25] meaning that young people don't really [110:27] believe in the shadows anymore. Young [110:29] people grow up and says, "Hmm, are these [110:31] shadows really real? They don't feel [110:33] real to me." [110:35] The system needs to become much more [110:37] authoritarian. [110:39] It needs to force people to believe what [110:41] they refuse to believe. [110:43] Because [110:44] everyone in the system is incentivized [110:47] to ensure this edifice is stable. Do you [110:50] think this is somewhat linked to what's [110:52] going on with independent media? [110:54] Exactly. Because independent media are [110:56] asking a lot of questions about the way [110:57] society functions. Exactly. And that's [111:00] why we're seeing governments becoming [111:03] very worried about independent media. [111:05] Because if you have people in the [111:07] population saying, "These These shadows [111:09] are fake." [111:10] This creates a ripple effect. It causes [111:13] uh people to start questioning the [111:15] shadows on the wall. You can't have [111:16] that. So, that's why it's important to [111:19] have censorship. That's why it's [111:20] important to deplatform people. That's [111:22] why you have woke politics, DEI. This is [111:25] a enforcement mechanism. [111:28] Yeah, I mean, it is pretty hard, you [111:29] know, it's pretty It's not easy being a [111:31] uh an independent podcaster if you have [111:33] a big platform cuz [111:35] you're not always the most loved by the [111:37] mainstream media. And they'll figure out [111:38] how to eventually But, I think that's I [111:41] think that's very human, actually. I [111:42] think I think the incentives are quite [111:45] understandable from a human perspective. [111:47] Look, if you look at the system, no [111:49] one's really in charge, [111:50] and no one's a villain. [111:53] They just grow up in the system. [111:55] >> And everyone's protecting their [111:55] incentives. Exactly. That's kind of what [111:57] I mean. I'm like, yeah, I have human [111:59] nature is to protect one's incentives, [112:01] and you know, the media didn't like Mark [112:03] Zuckerberg and Facebook because 80% of [112:05] 70, 80% of ad revenue went to Google and [112:07] Facebook. So, they had a bit of a war. [112:09] So, I kind of get it. People are trying [112:10] to protect what's theirs. [112:12] And disruption causes people to, I [112:14] guess, panic a little bit, but makes [112:16] sense. [112:17] But, the problem is [112:20] that [112:21] over time, more and more young people [112:23] are going to grow up and say, "I don't [112:25] see shadows. [112:26] I'm pretty sure we're being lied to." [112:30] In which case, this presents an [112:31] opportunity to overthrow the system and [112:35] create a new system. [112:37] And this is why AI is important. [112:42] But, we we we currently believe this [112:44] one. We currently believe in this [112:45] structure. It's almost It's really [112:46] difficult, I think, for the average [112:47] person listening now to accept the fact [112:49] that they have believed a bunch of [112:51] fundamental ideas and stories that [112:55] everything they care about is sat upon. [112:57] But, I mean, you only if you read the [112:58] book Sapiens and understood that humans [113:00] got here because we had a remarkable [113:01] ability to believe in stories that maybe [113:03] the orangutan could not believe. It [113:05] couldn't believe in money and [113:07] governments, and religions, and all [113:09] these kinds of things. It makes perfect [113:10] sense that yeah, there's really [113:12] foundational stories we are accepting, [113:14] and that's what's brought us here today. [113:16] That's what keeps me from running out on [113:17] the street without our clothes on, or [113:19] doing other illicit activities, is I'm [113:21] held in place by a set of stories um [113:24] that I've accepted, and they are stacked [113:26] one upon the other to make me believe [113:28] that everything I'm saying and accepting [113:30] is [113:31] valid. [113:32] But [113:33] you know, I guess the question becomes, [113:34] am I okay with this reality? [113:37] And what's stopping us from creating our [113:38] own reality that benefits everyone? Is [113:41] that possible? [113:42] Well, in theory, it's possible, but as [113:45] you point out, there's certain people [113:47] who are happy with the system and want [113:51] to maintain the system. And that's why [113:53] we're going to war around the world, [113:55] because it's not just a war between [113:58] different nation-states. It's also a war [114:01] for the fundamental nature of reality. [114:04] You have the bankers [114:05] versus the tech bros, right? That's what [114:09] we're seeing in the world right now. [114:11] Where for the longest time, Wall Street [114:14] has controlled America, but now with the [114:16] with the Trump revolution, you have [114:18] Palantir. [114:19] You have people like Larry Ellison, [114:21] Peter Thiel, [114:23] uh Sam Altman, who want to create [114:25] Operation Stargate, [114:27] which gives them complete control over [114:30] people's imagination. [114:32] You cannot get over that. Okay. [114:36] And [114:37] that thing will come down eventually, [114:39] because that is just [114:42] the fundamental fact of human history. [114:45] Everything, no matter how stable it [114:47] seems in the beginning, it all comes [114:49] crashing down eventually. Eventually. [114:52] Eventually. [114:52] >> Cyclically. Cyclically. [114:54] Yes. [114:56] Um Ray Dalio talks about the cycles [114:58] through history, and how so or they are, [115:01] and how frequent they are. Is there a [115:03] frequency to the rise and fall of these [115:06] I guess perceived realities or empires [115:08] as he as he calls it. Yeah, so they say [115:10] empires last about 20 years. [115:13] And so we are now in the twilight of the [115:16] American empire. [115:18] And what we know is that when empires [115:20] decline, [115:21] it's always for the same reasons. [115:23] And [115:25] um [115:26] it's always because of too much debt, [115:29] too much corruption, [115:30] too much inequality. And we're seeing [115:32] that in America today. And the other [115:34] thing that we know is you can't actually [115:36] stop the decline of empires. So Oswald [115:40] Spengler, who is a German theoretician, [115:44] he argues that [115:46] we are human beings and we have natural [115:48] life cycles because we're organisms. [115:51] Well, societies are the same way where [115:54] empires, they will be born, they'll [115:56] rise, and they'll die. And it's And it's [115:59] a good thing because that's what allows [116:01] for constant human innovation. Do you [116:04] think that will happen in my lifetime? [116:05] I'm 30 years old, 33 years old. [116:07] It may happen in everyone's lifetime. It [116:10] may happen next 5 to 10 years. We are We [116:12] are seeing [116:13] >> Do you think that's going to happen in [116:14] the next 5 to 10 years? I think there's [116:15] a very strong possibility that the [116:17] American empire will collapse in the [116:19] next 5 to 10 years because it is [116:21] overstretched, it's in too much debt, [116:24] and it is really angering the entire [116:26] world. It's basically unifying the [116:27] entire world against it right now. And [116:29] if [116:29] >> that is to be the case, what would you [116:31] give me as advice as a 33-year-old? What [116:34] What action should I be thinking about [116:35] taking now based on what you know about [116:37] history to make sure that, you know, [116:40] it's not too bad for my myself? I guess [116:42] I'm asking this question in light of you [116:44] predicting that there might be a [116:46] collapse of the sort of Western or the [116:48] American empire. [116:51] And in such a scenario, I was wondering [116:52] what what what it would look like to be [116:54] an American. [116:55] And is there a a solution or course of [116:58] behavior one should take in such a [116:59] scenario? But what I guess that's the [117:01] key question which is if the US empire [117:04] does collapse, how does American life [117:06] change or Western life change? Okay. So, [117:08] one theory that's very important to [117:10] understand [117:12] is something called hermetic philosophy. [117:14] And hermetic philosophy is what [117:15] underpins [117:17] um Plato's allegory of the cave. Mhm. [117:20] And hermetic philosophy comes from [117:21] Egypt. [117:23] And it has certain principles, but its [117:25] main principle is that reality is [117:28] energy, is vibrations. Okay, so we think [117:31] of it as material, but material is a [117:34] consequence of energy. Mhm. Right? So, [117:38] what this means is that [117:40] reality is consciousness itself. Mhm. [117:44] So, [117:45] our thoughts are what's real. [117:48] Our bodies [117:49] are just vehicles to expre- to [117:52] experience the world around us, but [117:54] they're not real. When we die, our souls [117:56] return to the source, and we come back [117:59] again. And we're here primarily in order [118:01] to experience things we cannot [118:02] experience in the spiritual world, [118:04] because in the spiritual world it's not [118:06] material. Mhm. [118:07] So, [118:09] what's really important is to appreciate [118:12] that [118:13] every one of us is part of the source. [118:16] And so, if we think about the totality [118:19] of things, we can only become [118:22] despondent. We can only give up hope. [118:24] But if we think about how individually [118:28] we can become a better person, [118:31] and how we can impact the people around [118:33] us, [118:34] then that becomes reflected [118:37] onto the reality itself. [118:39] Because we're just part of God itself. [118:42] Right? So, the idea is as above, so [118:44] below. [118:46] As below, so above. Meaning that we are [118:48] each and every one of us fractals of [118:50] God. Mhm. So, we choose to be a good [118:53] person, [118:54] this [118:56] makes the world a better place. We [118:57] choose to be a bad person, it also makes [118:59] the world a worse place. So, it's not [119:01] really about how can I stop these wars [119:03] from happening, because you cannot. It's [119:05] not really about where can I put my [119:07] money to make generate more income, [119:08] because that because that's not going to [119:09] happen. It's really about [119:12] how do I [119:14] live my life [119:15] to the fullest. [119:17] How do I become a much more creative [119:19] individual that brings goodness to the [119:22] people around me? [119:23] If you do that, you're changing the [119:25] world [119:26] everyday for the better. [119:32] That's a nice message. [119:35] That's a very nice message. [119:37] And I agree. And I It's really [119:38] interesting. I've spoken to a couple of [119:39] physicists now who say similar things [119:41] regarding [119:42] about consciousness, and it really has [119:44] stuck with me. A lot of things people [119:45] say, you know, sometimes because I I [119:47] learn so much doing this that I forget [119:49] them. But this idea that um [119:52] that we're all part of the same [119:53] consciousness, and that I think someone [119:54] said to me, a physicist said to me that [119:56] um [119:57] it's almost like consciousness divided [119:59] into lots of little pieces so that [120:00] >> That's right. Fractals. Fractals. So, [120:02] that it yeah, it could it could [120:03] experience the world or view the world. [120:05] >> Exactly. And I found that to be a really [120:06] compelling idea. Weirdly, I was thinking [120:08] about this the other day. I was in a [120:09] European country, and I was I was [120:11] driving in a taxi, and I looked out the [120:13] window, and you had all of these like [120:14] tourists [120:15] just stood at the edge of the water, all [120:17] just like looking up and looking around. [120:19] And I just for a second thought of it [120:20] thought of them as like little peach [120:22] pieces of consciousness exploring the [120:23] world, cuz they were like looking up and [120:25] looking around and looking at mountains [120:26] and looking at the ocean and looking at [120:27] the floor. And it it dawned on me for a [120:29] second that that might just be [120:30] consciousness [120:32] is manifestation for sort of I guess [120:35] exploration. [120:36] It's which is a really interesting idea. [120:38] I don't necessarily know what it means, [120:39] but it does create a little lot of [120:40] empathy. [120:41] >> So, so one one area that you might want [120:43] to explore is the Kabbalah. So, what [120:45] How's this What What's this Kabbalah [120:46] thing? Right. It's called It's what they [120:48] call the Tree of Life. And in the Tree [120:49] of Life, it's it's It's what I'm trying [120:52] to say is that it's a certain dynamic in [120:53] the world that governs all human [120:55] affairs. And this dynamic is [120:57] thesis, antithesis, synthesis. [121:00] So, God is the will to bestow, creates [121:04] Adam Kadmon, who is the will to receive. [121:07] Adam Kadmon has to abandon God. This [121:09] This destroys the world, but eventually, [121:11] because the world is destroyed, Adam [121:13] Kadmon and his and his descendants, us, [121:15] recognize the folly of our ways and beg [121:18] God for forgiveness, and this will [121:20] redeem the world, repair the world. [121:23] And if you think about it, okay? This is [121:26] what underpins a lot of actions [121:30] that is happening in the Middle East. [121:33] Where Israelis are doing what they're [121:34] doing because they're trying to force [121:37] the hand of God. [121:39] Meaning that, okay, [121:41] if Israel is committing all these [121:43] atrocities in the Middle East, it's [121:45] creating all these wars, eventually the [121:48] world will have to punish Israel the the [121:50] Israelis. [121:52] Right? There'll be war between the world [121:53] and Israel. [121:55] And Israel will be humbled. But once [121:57] Israel is humbled, [121:59] everyone [122:00] in Israel recognize the folly [122:03] of his or her arrogance, [122:06] hubris, [122:08] and then will beg God for forgiveness. [122:11] And once that phenomenon happens, when [122:13] all people in Israel, at the same time, [122:16] beg God for deliverance and for [122:18] forgiveness, [122:20] the world will end. [122:22] And will return to paradise. [122:24] That's literally what they believe. [122:33] We're going to have to stop there, [122:33] Professor. Um we have a closing [122:35] tradition where the last guest leaves a [122:36] question for the next guest, not knowing [122:37] who they're leaving it for. [122:39] And the question left for you is, who [122:41] will you miss the most and why? [122:44] Well, [122:45] I will miss my wife the most [122:49] because I met my wife about 10 years ago [122:52] and this was a time in my life when I [122:54] had and when I had I had hit rock [122:56] bottom. [122:58] Um I went to Yale and so I have a very [123:01] um elevated sense of myself and my [123:04] abilities. And so I went into the world [123:06] thinking that I would conquer it. [123:08] And after decades of failure, [123:11] um I [123:14] basically became very depressed. [123:16] Failure? [123:17] Yes, I meaning I didn't have a job, [123:19] meaning I didn't have much income, [123:22] meaning I didn't have much hope in my [123:24] life. And so I was working as a teacher [123:27] and in formal acquaintance, I met my [123:29] wife. [123:30] And [123:32] I think that it was because [123:35] I became so depressed that my heart [123:38] I begged for relief. I begged God, even [123:43] though I don't believe in God, [123:45] for salvation and redemption. [123:47] And my wife [123:49] came as an angel. [123:50] And what she did that no one else did [123:53] before was she loved me unconditionally. [123:57] She was kind to me. [123:59] She [124:01] told me [124:02] to believe in myself. [124:04] And she proved it [124:06] by making the ultimate sacrifice and [124:08] having a child with me. [124:10] Right? It's one thing to for someone to [124:12] say, "I believe in you. I love you." But [124:14] it's another thing to have a child with [124:17] that person. And so that changed me [124:21] totally. And I I said to myself, "I [124:24] can't despair anymore. I have to work [124:26] hard. I have to provide for my family." [124:31] And at this time I was thinking that [124:33] maybe I could help Chinese students [124:36] go [124:37] to Yale. Like, you know, in China uh [124:40] consulting is a huge business where if [124:41] you help package your kid and you get [124:44] into Yale, you get about a million [124:45] dollars. That's a lot of money, right? [124:47] And she told me, "You can't do that. You [124:49] have to be true to yourself and you have [124:51] to be true to our son. [124:54] Set a good example for him." And so, [124:56] what happened was that I got a job as a [124:59] high school teacher. [125:01] And then I started to make these YouTube [125:02] videos. [125:04] And then it blew up online. [125:06] And this was not something that we [125:07] expected. This is not something that we [125:09] planned for. It just happened [125:11] organically. [125:12] So, [125:14] it was my wife just just by saying, [125:17] "I love you" to me and I knew it to be [125:19] true because we had a child together, we [125:21] started a family together. By loving me [125:22] unconditionally, by being kind to me, it [125:24] changed me forever. [125:25] And that's what empowered me to want to [125:29] share myself with other people as well. [125:31] And so, I don't know how I will ever [125:33] thank my wife. I'm I'm forever grateful [125:36] for her. And I don't I don't Before I [125:39] didn't really mind leaving this world, [125:41] but I don't want to leave this world [125:42] anymore because I don't want to separate [125:44] from her. [125:46] Could you have expected that you'd have [125:48] the success you've had online? You've [125:50] got to what to almost 2.5 million [125:51] subscribers on YouTube alone. [125:54] Um getting millions and millions and [125:55] millions of views on your videos. [125:57] I mean, some of your videos have almost [125:59] 10 million views on on various channels [126:00] that you've been on. [126:02] You've only made 146 of these videos. [126:05] And your your channel has grown [126:07] immensely. Could could you have [126:08] imagined? [126:11] I did. You did imagine? Yes. You thought [126:14] it would go like this? [126:15] Um not this big, but I imagined, you [126:18] know, I I would find people who believe [126:22] in what I was doing and would be [126:23] inspired by what I was doing. And I knew [126:26] this because [126:28] when I met my wife and I fell in love [126:30] for the first time. We love each other [126:33] uh [126:33] unconditionally. [126:35] My imagination start to open up. I could [126:39] see and feel things that were not [126:41] available to me before. [126:44] And it was as though I became much more [126:47] connected to the source. I became much [126:49] more connected to the universe. The [126:51] universe was giving me insights [126:54] as to how to proceed. [126:56] And so [126:58] I had one day an inspiration. Let me [127:00] start our YouTube channel. Let me make [127:02] stupid predictions and see where where [127:03] it goes. [127:04] Because if I'm right, then then [127:07] I would be [127:09] pretty famous. If I'm wrong, then I'm an [127:11] idiot. [127:12] But what gave me the courage to imagine [127:16] all this was again the love of my wife. [127:20] So that's why I say kindness and love. [127:25] So I did imagine this, but not to the [127:28] extent that um [127:31] you know, my YouTube channel has blown [127:32] up. [127:33] You've only been doing it about a year. [127:35] I I don't think I've ever seen someone [127:37] get two two and a half million [127:37] subscribers in a year. [127:39] Especially making a geo- geopolitics and [127:42] uh [127:44] It's mainly geopolitics, isn't it? And [127:46] history videos. In a year, that's crazy. [127:49] But I will tell you this. [127:51] It has not changed me. [127:53] Because [127:55] being with my wife, [127:57] having a family, [127:58] I know my mission is to share myself [128:01] with others. [128:03] So [128:04] I could easily [128:06] um create a media education company like [128:09] Jordan Peterson um and start my own [128:12] university. I don't want to do that. I [128:14] want to share myself with others. I want [128:18] to constantly learn. I want to [128:19] constantly ask questions. I want to be [128:22] open-minded. I want to be brave [128:24] for my wife and my family. [128:27] And so yes, I did succeed. And I think I [128:31] thank the universe for letting me [128:32] succeed. And I thank most of all the [128:35] fact that I succeeded at age and at time [128:39] when I can focus on a mission and ignore [128:43] the fame, [128:44] the wealth, the status. [128:47] Are you happy? [128:49] I'm very happy with my family because [128:51] it's my wife and my children who bring [128:53] me tremendous happiness [128:55] in the world. The The YouTube channel, [128:58] if they close it down tomorrow, [129:00] and they might, [129:01] I wouldn't be at all [129:04] uh unhappy because I can just go and [129:07] create more videos. Uh what matters is [129:10] the source of my creativity, which is my [129:12] the love I have for my family. [129:15] That is beautiful. [129:17] Really beautiful. I mean, it's it's [129:18] really self-evident the value you're [129:20] giving to people because the amount of [129:22] people that showed up in my comment [129:24] section and and demanded that you come [129:25] here was staggering. In fact, that's [129:27] actually how I I learned about you was I [129:29] just saw your name so much in the [129:31] comment section. So I was like, "Who's [129:33] this guy?" And I went on YouTube and [129:34] looked around and then I found these [129:35] videos and then I got served them [129:37] because I clicked on them and then I got [129:39] went down the rabbit hole like everyone [129:40] >> Did they just want you? Yeah. I am a [129:41] polarizing figure. Oh, it's probably [129:44] because [129:44] >> some people really love me, but some [129:46] people also really really hate me. [129:48] >> It Listen, I have I sit here with people [129:50] really regardless of [129:52] of of that stuff and I think that's [129:55] important and quite rare. So I you know, [129:56] I've sat with Kamala Harris or Ivanka [129:58] Trump or Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama, [130:01] you know, and for me it's really about [130:02] the pursuit of truth rather than being [130:04] captured too much by [130:06] you know, Right. [130:07] >> all the blocks that we have on the [130:08] table. So um [130:10] thank you for doing what you do because [130:11] you're demystifying and you're you're [130:13] giving a perspective to the world. And I [130:14] think one of the things you you do that [130:16] really has compelled people is you [130:18] you're able to um [130:20] break things down in visual ways that [130:22] allow people like me who aren't the best [130:26] when it comes to [130:27] books and textbooks and weren't [130:29] necessarily very good in school to [130:31] understand concepts in a simpler way and [130:33] really to bring them to life in ways [130:34] that make them actionable and relevant [130:36] to our lives. And so long may you carry [130:38] on doing that. And that's the essential [130:40] message that I hope people understand [130:41] like everyone has the capacity to learn [130:45] the truth for himself or herself. It's [130:48] only a question of desire and will. [130:50] Thank you. Thank you. YouTube have this [130:52] new crazy algorithm where they know [130:53] exactly what video you would like to [130:56] watch next based on AI and all of your [130:58] viewing behavior. And the algorithm says [131:00] that this video is the perfect video for [131:03] you. It's different for everybody [131:05] looking right now. Check this video out [131:07] and I bet you you might love it.