Aschenbrenner Fund Unwinds AI Levered Bets After Citadel Buyout
The Compound
Extreme leverage and concentrated pair trades in semiconductor stocks triggered catastrophic margin calls, forcing Situational Awareness to liquidate its public holdings.
## Background
Published on YouTube by The Compound on August 5, 2026, this episode of Animal Spirits (Episode 476) features hosts Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discussing a chaotic month in the stock market. According to the page description, the episode covers the collapse of the Situational Awareness hedge fund, market leverage, semiconductor volatility, the 60/40 portfolio strategy, Federal Reserve policy, Bitcoin apathy, record summer travel, and recent film box office hits.
## TL;DR
Hosts Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson break down a turbulent period in financial markets, centered on the dramatic rise and liquidation of Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused hedge fund, Situational Awareness. They analyze how extreme leverage led to forced selling and a Citadel takeover, drawing parallels to Long-Term Capital Management while examining broader market resilience as indices hit new all-time highs. The duo also explores retail investor capitulation, Federal Reserve expectations, GLP-1 drug adoption forecasts, and private credit investigations alongside commentary on current pop culture, travel, and entertainment trends.
## Atmosphere & style
The show carries a breezy, conversational, and collegial vibe, blending sharp market analysis with humor and relatable personal anecdotes. The dynamic between Batnick and Carlson feels like a candid, late-afternoon catch-up between long-time colleagues who balance financial candor with self-deprecating banter about Siri glitches, personal fitness struggles, and parenting. The narrative arc moves fluidly from high-stakes Wall Street drama to everyday observations, creating an engaging, accessible, and grounded listening experience.
## Key takeaways
- [05:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=300s) Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund Situational Awareness suffered a catastrophic collapse after rapid growth to $45 billion, forcing a discounted liquidation of public holdings to Citadel due to excessive 4x–5x leverage.
- [15:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=914s) The collapse of Situational Awareness illustrates how new generations of Wall Street managers repeatedly fall into the psychological trap of using high leverage during rapid win streaks.
- [17:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1072s) Warren Buffett remains a rare multi-decade market winner because his use of leverage is uniquely structured through insurance float rather than fragile short-term borrowing.
- [20:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1243s) Citadel's step-in during the semiconductor sell-off prevented wider market contagion, allowing major equity indices to stage a swift recovery toward new high territory.
- [25:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1501s) Although mega-cap technology concentration is higher than in 1999, today's leaders generate real cash flows and earnings that justify valuations and keep 60/40 portfolios performant.
- [28:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1719s) Retail investor sentiment hit a severe panic low with $243 million in single-day equity net outflows, marking a classic local market bottom.
- [31:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1860s) South Korea's KOSPI experienced a violent 40% collapse in five weeks driven by semiconductor volatility, resulting in forced margin calls for 3.5% of the country's population.
- [35:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2115s) The DRAM ETF demonstrated a classic behavior gap where the fund posted a 102% return, yet late-arriving investors suffered an aggregate loss of $1.6 billion.
- [40:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2438s) Federal Reserve rate adjustments have minimal structural impact on day-to-day economic reality outside of rare systemic panics where the central bank serves as lender of last resort.
- [49:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2978s) Morgan Stanley projected annual GLP-1 weight-loss drug sales to reach $190 billion by 2035 as medical adoption expands and social stigma decreases.
- [56:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3400s) Over 100,000 Robinhood users opened agentic AI trading accounts, while cryptocurrency markets experienced apathy and severe ETF outflows.
- [59:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3551s) Federal prosecutors and the SEC launched investigations into $16 billion in private credit transactions connected to Guggenheim's Mark Walter and affiliated insurance firms.
- [01:03:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3807s) Record commercial aviation travel and high consumer activity directly contradict widespread doom-scrolling narratives of an impending economic collapse.
The episode kicks off with a sponsor message from **YCharts**, highlighting their "Top 10 Visuals" deck—a tool designed to help financial advisors navigate difficult client conversations about long-term market trends, staying invested, and retirement withdrawal rates.
Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson open the show noting that their episode outline has ballooned to 40 pages, marking one of the heaviest news agendas they've faced in months. Batnick admits that even though the S&P 500 looked relatively calm on paper for July (down roughly 10 basis points), the internal market volatility beneath the surface was extraordinarily high. They recount how the month was packed with massive corporate earnings reports—including blowout numbers from Amazon and Microsoft, volatile trading in Meta (Facebook), and an Apple earnings update—alongside major news in pop culture and sports. Batnick, still buzzing seven weeks after the New York Knicks won the NBA championship, quips about his growing collection of Knicks apparel as they frame July as one of the most entertaining market periods of the decade.
---
[00:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=5s) The Fall of Situational Awareness
The focal point of the market madness was a dramatic semiconductor crash, anchored by the rapid rise and sudden collapse of a high-flying hedge fund ironically named **Situational Awareness**. Managed by 24- or 25-year-old wunderkind Leopold Aschenbrenner, the fund had surged on aggressive artificial intelligence bets. Aschenbrenner—a prodigy who entered Columbia University at age 15 and was later fired from OpenAI over alleged leaks of sensitive information—had raised hundreds of millions of dollars less than two years prior despite having no formal institutional track record. Backed by high-profile tech figures including the Collison brothers, Sam Altman, and leaders at Meta, Aschenbrenner had laid out a bold 10-year AI manifesto that briefly earned him the moniker "the AI Nostradamus."
```
$9.3B $20B+ $45B Massive Deleveraging
(Mar 2026) (Jun 2026) (Jul 2026) (Late July 2026)
|---------------|---------------|-------------------|
3x growth in 3 months via 4x-5x leverage Sold public book
to Citadel at 10%
discount
```
However, the hosts explain that having a brilliant macro thesis does not equate to sound portfolio management. Aschenbrenner ran the fund with extreme leverage—estimated at 4x to 5x exposure—and held concentrated long positions in soaring AI hardware names while shorting traditional tech firms like Adobe. When market momentum flipped, the resulting squeeze created a classic "alligator jaw" pair-trade loss. In a span of three months, fund assets under management (AUM) skyrocketed from $9.3 billion in March 2026 to over $20 billion in June, and peaked at $45 billion in July before catastrophic margin pressure forced a total liquidation of the fund's public levered book. On July 24th, Aschenbrenner issued an investor letter calling the dip a buying opportunity; by July 30th, the fund sold its entire public holdings to Citadel at a steep 10% discount to meet margin calls.
The hosts draw explicit parallels between Aschenbrenner's downfall and Roger Lowenstein's classic book *When Genius Failed*, which details the 1998 collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). They note that Bespoke Investment Group published a chart overlaying Situational Awareness's timeline on top of LTCM’s collapse relative to the Netscape and ChatGPT innovation cycles. Batnick and Carlson debate the psychological trap of huge early returns, referencing Jason Zweig's *Your Money and Your Brain* to explain how rapid financial wins flood the brain with dopamine—a phenomenon dubbed "cocaine brain"—leading managers to stack on ever-greater leverage to chase the same high. Quoting financial commentator Mark Rubinstein and former energy trader John Arnold, Carlson notes that "the perfect number of blowups for a hedge fund manager is one," serving as a brutal, necessary lesson in risk management.
* **Fund Leadership:** Leopold Aschenbrenner (former OpenAI researcher, Columbia valedictorian).
* **Peak Performance:** Up as much as 2,700% since inception prior to the July unwind.
* **AUM Trajectory:** $9.3B (March 2026) $\rightarrow$ $20B+ (June 2026) $\rightarrow$ $45B (July 2026).
* **Bailout/Liquidation:** Public levered positions sold off to Citadel at a 10% discount in late July 2026; private early-stage stake in Anthropic helped cushion overall net losses, keeping the fund up an estimated 80% overall from inception.
* **Core Mistake:** Running ~4x–5x leverage on concentrated pair trades, leaving no margin for error during market drawdowns.
<FollowUp label="Want to dive into the next section covering the stock market crash and tech earnings?" query="Walk me through the next part of the transcript covering the stock market performance and semiconductor crash."/>
[15:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=914s) Situational Awareness and the Cycle of Market Mistakes
Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson open with a quote by journalist Rob Copeland (*The New York Times*, author of *The Fund* about Ray Dalio), noting that the story of "Situational Awareness"—a high-profile macro memo that shook the tech and market landscape—is simply an old Wall Street lesson relearned by every new generation and promptly forgotten by the next. Ben quips that while perhaps 2% of the population can learn from history and reading books, most investors insist on "paying their tuition to the market gods" themselves. Everyone feels compelled to find out firsthand whether they possess the stock-picking genius of Warren Buffett or if they can successfully time the market, only to realize they cannot and move on.
Turning back to the Leopold Aschenbrenner hedge fund situation, Ben estimates that roughly 95% of the fund's remaining value is tied up in illiquid private investments like Anthropic, which is up around 400% on the year. Ben notes that for many investors, simply getting locked-in access to Anthropic was worth the investment alone. Michael points out that this was a "velvet rope" fund reserved for ultra-wealthy or well-connected investors rather than retail money, suggesting those investors might even be willing to allocate *more* capital rather than demand redemptions. Although Ben argues the founder should strictly stick to venture capital rather than public markets, Michael contends that public market investors who manage risk this poorly inevitably blow up.
* "The story of situational awareness is in some way an old Wall Street lesson learned by every generation and then forgotten by the next." — Rob Copeland
* "The market is like an ocean and eventually washes everybody away." — Michael Batnick
[17:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1072s) Legendary Investors, Leverage, and Market Volatility
Michael reflects on a post he published in 2015 where he mapped the birth years of famous financiers against a long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to show when legendary investors were born. He highlights that virtually no legendary public market stock pickers have emerged in decades—most notable names (like David Einhorn or Cliff Asness) were born in the 1960s, and even Einhorn suffered massive drawdowns betting against tech stocks. This track record makes Warren Buffett's multi-decade success all the more extraordinary, particularly because Buffett utilized leverage in a uniquely intelligent, structural way (via insurance float) that very few have ever successfully replicated.
The discussion pivots to the jarring speed and wild volatility of the modern stock market, where extreme swings make investors feel like genius or idiot within a single week. Ben points out that on July 29th, six out of the seven "Magnificent Seven" stocks were in deep drawdowns (down 15% or more, with Microsoft down 30%), while Apple was sitting at all-time highs. Just two days later, the board flipped: Apple fell nearly 15%, Microsoft surged almost 20%, Meta dropped 10%, and Amazon jumped 20%. Following the volatility surrounding the semiconductor crash and the Citadel intervention in Leopold’s fund, single-day stock moves hit eye-popping levels, with SanDisk soaring 25% in a single session.
* Quoting market analyst Warren Pies, Ben notes that the Leopold liquidation pushed semiconductor single-stock volatility to 75%—a level reached only twice before: March 2020 and April 2025.
* Ben notes that Microsoft surged roughly 30% off its recent lows in an extraordinarily brief timeframe.
[20:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1243s) Debating the Citadel Intervention and Market Resiliency
Michael and Ben debate whether Citadel's intervention to take the other side of Leopold Aschenbrenner's unwinding positions constituted a "bailout." Michael insists the term "bailout" implies taxpayer or government intervention, whereas Ben argues that if Citadel had not stepped in to absorb the liquidation, a cascading series of margin calls would have dragged the market down significantly further. Regardless of terminology, the market staged a dramatic snapback immediately following the resolution of the forced selling.
Ben references a table from Todd Sohn demonstrating how index gains have become historically concentrated. Michael emphasizes that while structural financial mechanics change, behavioral data points capture immutable human psychology. He cites a tweet from Jason Goepfert showing that when the NASDAQ 100 lurches from a three-month low to its best single-day gain in three months while remaining in an overall uptrend, the index has been positive three months later 86% of the time (with the tech bubble in April 2000 being the sole major exception).
* In six of the last eight years, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 contributed the largest share to the index's overall gain, a level of market concentration rarely seen prior to 2020.
* Despite two ongoing wars, sticky inflation, rising long-bond yields, software and semiconductor crashes, and anxiety over the Fed chair, the stock market quickly powered back toward all-time highs.
* Ben jokes about walking around Chicago on a Tuesday night, seeing every bar and restaurant packed with people ordering $19 cocktails and IPAs, wanting to grab them and scream: "Don't you know the 30-year bond is at 5.3%?!"
[25:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1501s) The Unbeatable Market and the Eternal 60/40 Portfolio
Michael shares an anecdote about a recent dinner with Josh Brown where an acquaintance pointed out that Michael is "always bullish." Michael reflects on this critique, explaining that while he respects risk and feels genuine anxiety when markets fall, he simply "calls balls and strikes." When the market demonstrates incredible underlying strength by pushing to new all-time highs even after losing leadership from both the Magnificent Seven and the semiconductor sector, being persistently bearish requires ignoring clear market reality.
Ben brings up recent research from Goldman Sachs showing that while the technology sector's weight in the equity index is now higher than it was during the 1999–2000 tech bubble, today's mega-cap tech companies generate massive real earnings and cash flow, making the heavy concentration far more justified. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs data shows that despite fixed income struggling over the last five years, a traditional rolling three-year 60/40 balanced portfolio has delivered strong real returns of 12% to 14% annually in recent years, proving that asset allocation and diversification remain fully intact.
* Ben stresses that real 10-year rolling returns for 60/40 portfolios remain well within normal historical parameters rather than at dangerous historical extremes.
* Michael highlights that critics calling the 60/40 dead are essentially claiming diversification itself is dead—a claim that fails over long horizons.
[28:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1719s) Retail Capitulation and Frustrations with Tech
The conversation shifts to individual investor behavior, referencing a Bloomberg chart tracking Goldman Sachs's basket of retail-favorite stocks, which suffered its worst monthly performance since 2023. Michael notes that this retail favorite list (likely populated by names such as Palantir, SanDisk, and various Mag 7 stocks) has largely overlapped with the hedge fund consensus holdings list.
Citing data from Gunjan Banerji at *The Wall Street Journal*, Ben highlights a stark sentiment indicator: on a single Tuesday, retail investors net-sold $243 million worth of single stocks. This represented the largest single-day retail outflow from individual stocks since the March 2020 COVID crash. Unsurprisingly, this panic selling marked a local bottom, as the broader market bounced sharply the very next day.
To wrap up the section, Michael mentions tuning in to Tim Cook’s final Apple earnings call. Despite high-level commentary surrounding the upcoming iPhone 17 and its integrated artificial intelligence features, Michael expresses skepticism about consumer-facing AI improvements. He lightheartedly vents about basic speech-to-text failures on his iPhone, sharing that whenever he dictates the word "Knicks," Apple's voice recognition stubbornly transcribes it as "next." He contrasts this high-tech frustration with a quiet weekend trip taking his son Logan to "Rookie Day" for summer camp, followed by a visit to historic Hyde Park in upstate New York to tour the FDR estate and the nearby Vanderbilt Mansion.
* On Tuesday, retail investors logged $243 million in net outflows from single stocks, the highest one-day capitulation since the 2020 pandemic low.
[031:00] Apple's Siri Frustrations and the South Korea Market Crash
Michael shares a recent user experience headache with Apple, venting that despite being a big history enthusiast who wanted to send a photoset from Hyde Park to his father, Siri was entirely incapable of performing the basic task. Ben agrees, sharing that he had to manually change his wife's contact entry in his phone from "Courtney" to "Wife" because Siri constantly mistook the name for "Corey." They compare the current state of voice assistants to the infuriating automated phone tree systems mocked in *Curb Your Enthusiasm*, noting the irony that despite these product flaws, the stock market continues to perform undeterred.
```
SOUTH KOREA (KOSPI) MARKET SWING
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Peak Gain: ~100% (Doubled) ──┐ │
│ └──> 5-Week Collapse: -40% ──┐ │
│ └──> Net YTD: +50% │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```
The conversation pivots to South Korea's KOSPI index, which has experienced an unbelievable roller-coaster trajectory driven by the global semiconductor trade. After doubling on the year, the market collapsed 40% in just five weeks—yet amazingly, it remains up almost 50% year-to-date. Ben notes the sheer human impact of the forced liquidation: an estimated 3.5% of the entire population of South Korea received a margin call during the sell-off. While domestic individual investors were forced to sell at the bottom, foreign institutional buyers aggressively bought the dip.
* The S&P 500 gapped higher on Tuesday morning (9:38 AM) to reach a brand-new all-time high.
* An estimated 3.5% of South Korea's entire population faced margin calls during the KOSPI tech pull-back.
* Foreign investors heavily purchased the dip while retail individual accounts were liquidated.
---
[033:06] Speculation vs. The Core Bull Market
Reflecting on the Korean margin calls, Ben emphasizes that the primary key to long-term investing success is simple survival: never put yourself in a position where you become a forced seller. Michael discusses how critics often point to "degenerate behavior"—such as extreme leverage, meme stock frenzies, and speculative bets on quantum computing—to invalidate or cast doubt on the overall bull market. He argues that in a 24/7 hyper-connected trading world, speculative hype is permanent and only accelerating.
Michael highlights a positive trend in the current market cycle: speculative excesses are actively being punished without bringing down the broad market. While legitimate high-quality companies are pushing the S&P 500 to new highs, speculative "meme" vehicles—like their informal "Degenerate Dow" basket—have been cut in half. The hosts contrast this with the irrational 2021 GameStop and AMC trading frenzy, noting that retail market dynamics have meaningfully evolved.
> "The degenerate bull market is in shambles while the legitimate bull market is reaching new all-time highs. How could you not love to see that?"
---
[035:15] Investor Behavior, DRAM ETF, and Record ETF Inflows
The hosts examine a performance study shared by Morningstar's Jeff Ptak regarding a DRAM ETF. Launched in April, the fund ballooned to $26 billion in net assets by the end of July on the back of a massive 102% return. However, because the overwhelming majority of capital flooded into the fund *after* its parabolic rise—just before it tumbled 30% to 40%—dollar-weighted investor returns were negative. In total, investors lost an aggregate $1.6 billion despite the fund's eye-popping performance gains.
```
DRAM ETF: PERFORMANCE VS. INVESTOR REALITY
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Fund Return: +102% │
│ Net Inflows: $26 Billion (Flooded in near the peak) │
│ Net Dollar Return: -$1.6 Billion Lost by Investors │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```
Michael pushes back slightly on whether dollar-weighted loss statistics reflect the true median investor experience or merely highlight how late-arriving capital skews aggregate metrics, comparing it to the performance-chasing flows seen in Cathie Wood's ARK funds. Next, they look at a chart from Todd Sohn illustrating cumulative annual equity ETF flows since 2017. ETF capital inflows for 2026 are running 50% higher than the previous record-breaking year, driven largely by mega-cap artificial intelligence and semiconductor funds like SMH.
* **DRAM ETF Assets:** Grew from inception in April to $26 billion by the end of July.
* **Performance Gap:** The fund achieved a 102% return, yet aggregate dollar losses totaled $1.6 billion.
* **2026 ETF Inflow Record:** Total equity ETF inflows for 2026 are nearly 50% higher than 2025's previous record high.
---
[038:40] Truth Social's Paid API Feed and Political Realities
CNBC reported that Trump Media & Technology Group launched a paid data subscription service for its "Truth API." The service provides institutional subscribers and hedge funds with a direct, real-time licensed feed of posts from Donald Trump and other top accounts to capitalize on market-moving "Truths." Michael and Ben express disbelief at the blatant monetization of market-moving political statements, with Michael humorously comparing it to Apple releasing its corporate earnings five minutes early to paid tier subscribers.
```
[ President / Top Account Posts ] ───> ( Real-Time Truth API) ───> [ Paid Institutional Traders ]
```
This leads to a broader discussion about modern political figures. Ben laments that historic, heroic figures like Lincoln, Washington, FDR, or Teddy Roosevelt seem impossible in the modern era, as candidates today must cater to social media algorithms. Ben references a classic 2004 *South Park* satire about choosing between "a douche and a turd sandwich," concluding that voters are permanently stuck with those exact choices in modern politics.
---
[040:38] Federal Reserve "Astrology" and Macro Critiques
Ben introduces a controversial theory regarding the Federal Reserve following market pushback against Fed official Kevin Warsh's recent press conference. Macro analysts criticized Warsh for abandoning explicit forward guidance and taking an erratic, political stance, which caused curve steepening and stock declines reminiscent of emerging market central bank shocks.
Ben argues that outside of acute panics, the Fed's day-to-day policy moves are largely irrelevant to long-term economic outcomes:
* **Crisis Role:** The Fed only truly matters 5% of the time when acting as the lender of last resort during a system-wide crisis.
* **Day-to-Day Operations:** Fine-tuning interest rates by 25 basis points here or there has minimal structural impact.
* **Predictive Accuracy:** Central bank economic forecasts are consistently wrong and fail to preempt financial bubbles.
* **Macro Culture:** Ben quips that endlessly analyzing Fed dot plots and forecasts is simply "astrology for middle-aged finance bros."
---
[042:42] Economy "Monkey's Paw" and Movie Tangents
Michael introduces a comedic thought experiment called "One Wish Willow for the Economy" (inspired by their recent rewatch of the film *Obsession*), illustrating how every economic desire carries a severe hidden downside:
| Economic Wish | The "Monkey's Paw" Result |
|:--- |:--- |
| **"I wish we had 3% mortgage rates again!"** | Granted: Here is a devastating, deep economic recession. |
| **"I wish income inequality would decrease!"** | Granted: Here is a global pandemic, 9% inflation, and an 80% stock crash. |
| **"I wish housing prices would drop!"** | Granted: Here is a Great Financial Crisis where banks refuse to lend to you. |
The hosts praise the twist-filled storytelling of *Obsession*, comparing it to *The Sixth Sense* for its high rewatch value and hidden detail "Easter eggs." Returning to real estate, Ben notes that 30-year fixed mortgage rates have drifted back up toward 6.8%–7.0%. Despite early predictions in 2022 that high rates would be temporary, buyers are entering their fourth straight year of elevated borrowing costs.
---
[045:30] Yield Curves and "The Belly of the Curve"
Ben shares a Treasury yield curve chart from Exhibit A comparing current rates to 12 months prior, pointing out that the primary movement has occurred in the "belly of the curve"—specifically the 2-year to 10-year maturities. Michael pokes fun at the industry jargon, asking Ben to define what "the belly of the curve" means for non-finance listeners. Ben explains that it represents the middle-duration section of the yield curve, where institutional investors frequently attempt to capture attractive yield-to-risk dynamics.
<FollowUp label="Want to dive into the rest of episode 476 covering AI, crypto, and market recommendations?" query="Please continue the walkthrough for the next part of Animal Spirits episode 476."/>
Here is a detailed, faithful walkthrough of this part of the episode.
---
### [46:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2766s) Economic Debates, Mortgages, and Personal Fitness
Michael and Ben wrap up their discussion on interest rates and the yield curve, noting that if an uninitiated observer looked at the current yield curve, they would find it completely normal and functional. Michael reiterates his skepticism regarding claims that rising interest rates will trigger an immediate government debt crisis, arguing that those constantly warning of an impending federal fiscal collapse are missing the bigger picture. Ben agrees, emphasizing that high interest rates impact real-world mortgage rates far more severely and directly than they impact government deficit worries, referencing a blog post he wrote on how housing affordability and mortgage mechanics outweigh macro debt fears.
Transitioning from macroeconomics to personal health, Michael lightheartedly laments his current physical shape, joking about his own "belly" and admitting that he wore a tight, slim-fit Tommy John shirt recently, only to get a look of outright disgust from his wife, Robin. Ben teases him about calling his personal trainer back, while Michael confesses that his eating and fitness habits feel entirely out of control.
- **Yield Curve & Mortgages:** Michael and Ben agree the yield curve looks normal and that mortgage rates are the primary mechanism by which interest rates impact ordinary citizens, far more than government debt concerns.
- **Personal Banter:** Michael shares an anecdote about his wife's reaction to his tight Tommy John shirt, prompting Ben to urge him to rehire his personal trainer.
---
### [47:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2831s) The Dystopian City Lunch and Overpowered Speedboats
Michael describes a scene from his weekly Thursday trip into New York City, which he characterizes as feeling distantly dystopian. Needing a quick lunch between appointments, he went to pick up a pre-ordered smoothie from Pura Vida Miami—a trendy spot he notes is so heavily scented it feels like entering an Abercrombie & Fitch store. Upon arrival, he was greeted by the sight of 25 delivery drivers wearing bike helmets, all packed together waiting to transport $28 salads across the city. He reflects on how bizarre and confusing this phenomenon would seem to an alien or to anyone looking at a photo of it from seven years ago. Ben notes that the Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves movie *Good Fortune* actually features a plot line centered on DoorDash drivers waiting in lines for high-end meals.
Switching to another example of extreme consumer spending, Ben brings up a *Wall Street Journal* report on boat owners insisting on installing multiple high-horsepower outboard motors on their vessels. The article highlighted a buyer in Miami who demanded four motors on his boat. These outboards range from 200 to 600 horsepower and cost anywhere from $20,000 to $70,000 *each*. According to the article, this booming niche has allowed the marine industry to navigate economic softness better than manufacturers of other high-ticket discretionary items like RVs. Ben mocks the rationale of fishermen who insist they need that level of extreme speed just to beat everyone else to a favorite fishing spot, comparing them to reckless drivers in heavy-duty F-250 pickup trucks on the highway.
- **Pura Vida Miami Delivery Scene:** 25 delivery drivers in helmets waiting inside an aggressively fragranced restaurant to deliver $28 salads.
- **High-Horsepower Boat Outboards:** Individual marine engines cost $20,000 to $70,000 each (200 to 600 HP), with buyers mounting up to four per boat to reach fishing spots faster than competitors.
---
### [49:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2978s) GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs: Surging Market and Stigma
The hosts pivot to the massive commercial growth of GLP-1 weight-loss medications. Michael references a recent *Barron's* cover story highlighting that Morgan Stanley raised its 2035 annual sales forecast for GLP-1 drugs from $150 billion up to $190 billion for diabetes and obesity treatments alone. This projection implies a 30% market penetration among obese Americans by 2035, up from just 6% the previous year. Both hosts express surprise that current usage sits at only 6%, given that an estimated 30% to 40% of the US population is classified as obese.
Ben specs that adoption might be slowed by older, conservative physicians hesitant to prescribe new medications, suggesting that script volume will surge as a younger generation of doctors takes over. Michael addresses the social stigma surrounding weight-loss drugs, arguing that people should not feel ashamed of using medical tools to improve their health. Michael candidly admits he wants to try micro-dosing GLP-1s to help curb his lack of dietary willpower, while Ben encourages him to do so if it provides a jumpstart toward better health.
- **Morgan Stanley Forecast:** Projected 2035 GLP-1 sales increased to $190 billion annually, with expected penetration rising from 6% to 30% among obese Americans.
- **US Obesity Rate:** Discussed as sitting around 30% to 40% of the population.
- **Personal Stigma:** Michael expresses a desire to micro-dose GLP-1s to combat his lack of food willpower, while Ben agrees the social stigma surrounding the drug is unwarranted.
---
### [51:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3102s) AI Hype, Tech Executives, and the Joy of Manual Labor
Michael cites a tweet from OpenAI's Sam Altman, who enthusiastically described a hypothetical AI use case: connecting family calendars and children's personal interests to ChatGPT so it can generate a custom daily podcast for parents to play during the morning drive to school. Michael then quotes a dramatic response from venture capitalist Packy McCormick (Bua Capital), who warned that people will have to "fight with everything you've got to retain your humanity" against tech companies urging them to relinquish genuine human connection. Michael and Ben laugh at the absurdity of Altman's proposal, with Michael declaring, "I'm not turning my child's calendar into a podcast," and calling tech leaders out for being completely "lost in the sauce."
Ben argues that tech leaders make flawed predictions because they fail to understand fundamental human nature. He shares a story about taking down a rotten, moldy backyard wooden swing set with his son, George. Instead of hiring a contractor to haul it away in 30 minutes, Ben brought out a small chainsaw and a hammer, spending the afternoon tearing it down alongside his son. Ben muses on whether manual, physical labor will make people far happier in an AI-dominated world than sitting at a desk, invoking Peter Gibbons from the movie *Office Space*, who found peace working in construction at the end of the film.
- **Sam Altman AI Idea:** Automatically generating a custom daily family podcast from kids' schedules for the morning commute.
- **Manual Labor Reflection:** Ben recounts tearing down his children's swing set using a small chainsaw and hammer with his son, contemplating whether physical trades will offer greater happiness in an automated world.
---
### [54:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3276s) Home DIY Failures and Outsourcing Tasks
Michael contrasts Ben's hands-on approach with his own habit of letting household tasks linger indefinitely. He notes that framed posters had been sitting wrapped in bubble wrap in his house since he moved in 11 months prior. To finally get them hung, Michael hired Trevor, a multi-talented financial advisor and photographer at their firm, to handle the punch list.
While Trevor was hanging five picture frames inside, Michael went outside to inflate his wife Robin's new inflatable paddleboard using an electric pump. Unable to figure out how to lock the pump attachment onto the valve, Michael had to ask Trevor to step away from hanging pictures to help him blow up the paddleboard. Michael jokes about his complete reliance on outsourcing basic household tasks and notes that his wife wouldn't trust him to hang pictures properly anyway.
- **Procrastination & Outsourcing:** Michael hired firm advisor/photographer Trevor to execute an 11-month-old punch list, including hanging five framed posters and fixing an electric pump on an inflatable paddleboard.
---
### [56:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3400s) Agentic Trading Accounts and Crypto Apathy
Michael shifts the topic to Robinhood's latest earnings report, noting that CEO Vlad Tenev announced over 100,000 customers have opened agentic AI trading accounts. Ben compares automated trading bots to sports betting ETFs, arguing that trading is meant to be fun and hands-on, questioning whether automated bots will maintain long-term user engagement. Michael contends that while agentic tools won't generate excess alpha, they will likely outperform retail investors who rely purely on emotional, unaligned discretion, though users will inevitably spend excessive time tweaking and backtesting their AI rules.
Turning to cryptocurrency, Michael references a report from Duality Research tracking Bitcoin ETF flows since the asset's peak the previous October. The data revealed that out of a maximum $10.4 billion in cumulative ETF outflows, $9.3 billion (nearly 90%) occurred in a concentrated two-month stretch between May and July. Although 30-day flows turned positive again, Bitcoin's price failed to track the rally seen in traditional tech and software stocks. Ben notes that Ethereum sits more than 62% off its highs while Bitcoin remains down roughly 50%. Both hosts note a prevailing sense of market apathy around crypto, contrasting current sentiment with past cycles where critics aggressively mocked Bitcoin drawdowns.
- **Robinhood Agentic Trading:** Over 100,000 users have opened automated agentic trading accounts on Robinhood.
- **Bitcoin ETF Flows:** Cumulative ETF outflows reached a peak of $10.4 billion, with $9.3 billion occurring during a 60-day capitulation window between May and July.
- **Crypto Drawdowns:** Ethereum remains down over 62% from its ETF peak, while Bitcoin is down roughly 50%, exhibiting noticeable market apathy rather than active schadenfreude.
---
### [59:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3551s) Private Credit Scandals and Federal Investigations
Michael introduces a recent *Wall Street Journal* investigation concerning Mark Walter, key executive at Guggenheim Investments and owner of TWWG Global as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers. The report detail how an internal whistleblower complaint at Guggenheim triggered an investigation by federal prosecutors and the SEC.
Investigators are focusing on how approximately $16 billion in private credit loans extended to companies tied to Walter or TWWG Global were routed through third-party entities and landed on the balance sheets of insurance companies Walter owns. The Department of Justice (US Attorney's Office in Manhattan) and the SEC are actively examining whether these transactions constituted financial fraud. Michael jokes that if *The Sopranos* were being produced today, the mob would undoubtedly operate through private credit funds due to the market's complex, opaque, and esoteric nature. The section concludes with Ben mentioning the recent passing of the actor who played "Big Pussy" Bonpensiero on *The Sopranos*.
- **Mark Walter / Guggenheim Investigation:** The SEC and US Attorney's Office in Manhattan are investigating ~$16 billion in private credit transactions linked to Mark Walter, TWWG Global, and insurance entities he controls.
- **Pop Culture Note:** Michael compares private credit opacity to modern-day organized crime, leading to a mention of the death of *The Sopranos* actor Vincent Pastore (who played "Big Pussy" Bonpensiero).
[01:01:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3683s) Blue Owl’s Tech Fund Structure and LP Dynamics
Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss an interesting detail reported by the *Financial Times* regarding Blue Owl Capital. In 2022, Blue Owl launched a technology-focused fund after consulting with UBS to build a product suited for UBS's wealth management clients. Crucially, at least 60% of the capital raised for this fund came directly from UBS clients based in Asia.
Ben notes that while this was not Blue Owl's primary flagship fund—totaling around a couple of billion dollars—it highlights an aspect of investing that individual investors often overlook: understanding who the other Limited Partners (LPs) in a fund are. Institutional investors typically analyze LP concentration and dynamics thoroughly before committing capital. Despite reporting recent earnings that were "not terrible," Blue Owl's stock price remains down roughly 60% from its previous highs, showing that the broader stock market has been slow to re-rate it.
- At least 60% of the funds raised for Blue Owl’s 2022 tech fund originated from Asian clients of UBS.
- Blue Owl Capital's stock remains down approximately 60% despite stable earnings.
---
[01:02:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3747s) Apple iPhone Revenue Resurgence and Product Stagnation
The hosts turn their attention to Apple's latest quarterly numbers, specifically highlighting the rebound in iPhone revenue growth. After years of flat or erratic performance, iPhone sales posted year-over-year revenue increases of 23%, 22%, and 22% over the last three quarters, culminating in Apple's best June quarter on record.
Despite these massive financial metrics, Michael expresses frustration over the lack of noticeable consumer-facing innovations between recent smartphone generations. Holding his iPhone, he jokes that it doesn't feel any different than the previous iteration, prompting Ben to remind him that he is literally holding a supercomputer in his pocket. Michael jokingly channels sports radio host Chris "Mad Dog" Russo, demanding that Apple focus on fixing Siri rather than minor hardware tweaks, and speculates whether Anthropic's Claude will eventually replace Siri's functions entirely on Apple devices.
- iPhone revenue posted three consecutive quarters of strong growth (23%, 22%, and 22%), leading to its best June quarter ever.
- Discussion centered on consumer fatigue regarding annual smartphone upgrades versus underlying raw performance.
---
[01:03:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3807s) Record Summer Travel and the Social Media Reality Gap
Examining broader economic indicators, Ben points out that July 23rd set the record for the busiest day for commercial air travel in history. He pushes back hard against the narrative on social media that the economy is entirely "fake," severely K-shaped, or driven exclusively by high earners.
Drawing from his recent trip to Chicago, Ben describes seeing packed flights, crowded theme parks, and bars filled with young entry-level workers out drinking and enjoying themselves. He argues that social media operates as a "warped fourth dimension" where doom-scrolling distorts people's perception of real life, causing them to disbelieve what they can see with their own eyes.
- July 23rd was officially the busiest day in commercial aviation history.
- The hosts note strong foot traffic and high consumer spending across airports, restaurants, and theme parks.
---
[01:04:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3867s) Box Office Boom: Spider-Man, Nostalgia, and Movie Franchises
The conversation pivots to entertainment and movie box office performance. Michael admits he was dead wrong in his previous pessimism regarding movie theater demand, especially after the massive box office numbers posted by major releases. However, he voices his frustration over the record-breaking success of the latest *Spider-Man* film (*Spider-Man: Brand New Day*), which notched a historic $360 million domestic opening weekend and surpassed $1 billion globally.
Michael argues that society shouldn't be celebrating the 11th (or 12th, counting the animated *Spider-Verse* films) iteration of a CGI-heavy superhero franchise. Ben defends the film, noting that audiences actively reject bad superhero movies and embrace quality ones, regardless of franchise fatigue. The conversation turns to other upcoming projects, including Rick Moranis making his first public convention appearance in years, a potential *Home Alone* revival starring Macaulay Culkin as a father, a *Thomas Crown Affair* reboot starring Michael B. Jordan, and a *Clueless* sequel series at Paramount+.
- *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* secured the biggest domestic opening weekend in history with $360 million, quickly crossing $1 billion globally.
- Google Trends data shows rising interest in 1990s cultural staples, live events, vinyl records, and boomboxes, reflecting a broader "bull market in nostalgia."
---
[01:13:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4412s) Storytime: Squeaky Doors, Shredding Services, and Private Eyes
Ben closes out the episode with a pair of everyday observations and anecdotes. First, while sitting on his porch, he sprayed WD-40 on a squeaky door hinge and marveled at how a simple product instantly solves minor annoyances that previous generations just had to endure.
Second, Ben shares a story about a cold-caller from the West Michigan Shredding Company who walked into his shared office complex. When the salesman asked if Ben had any paper-shredding needs, Ben replied that his business was entirely digital. The salesman resignedly asked for a business card, was told Ben didn't carry those either, and promptly walked out—a clear sign of a business model battling secular headwinds. This prompts Ben to recall a childhood friend whose father was a private investigator primarily tracking down marital affairs for divorce cases, leading the hosts to wonder why PIs are so underrepresented in modern media outside of classic movie tropes like Pat Healy in *There's Something About Mary*.
Movie Reviews and Christopher Nolan's Process
The discussion opens with recommendations, kicking off with praise for the movie *The Odyssey*. After walking out of a screening in a Dolby Atmos theater, the speaker describes the experience as a "Holy shit" moment, singling out the Trojan Horse scene alongside the Cyclops sequence as an all-time great cinematic achievement, noting that Christopher Nolan practically "was in the horse with them." A profile on Nolan in *GQ*—a magazine the speaker proudly reads as part of its core demographic of fit guys who like fashion, running, and movies—detailed the intense behind-the-scenes dedication required to make his films. In one anecdote, Matt Damon marvels as Nolan's crew rapidly builds a platform on the side of a mountain for a techno crane, prompting an assistant director to note that every single person there could easily work on an easier movie for more money, but they choose not to because they want to be part of something genuinely cool.
* **The Odyssey:** Praised for its standout Trojan Horse and Cyclops scenes and immersive sound design.
* **GQ Magazine Profile:** Highlighted the intense work ethic and devotion Christopher Nolan inspires in his crew.
* **Tenant:** Re-evaluating the film after hearing Sean Fennessey and Chris Ryan discuss it on *The Big Picture* podcast, noting expectations are low enough to finally give it a watch.
---
Television Recommendations and Hollywood History
The conversation shifts to television shows, starting with *Shrinking*. Initially unimpressed with season one and skeptical about Harrison Ford's involvement, the speaker wound up loving seasons two and three, noting how the show improves over time. At age 84, Harrison Ford occasionally taps into incredible acting, and watching scenes featuring both Ford and Michael J. Fox—whose character deals with Parkinson's while Ford's character faces old age—evoked a strong sense of nostalgia. Next, Nicole Laporte's book about DreamWorks, *The Men Who Would Be King*, is recommended for its great Hollywood stories, including executives doubting *Saving Private Ryan*, Russell Crowe losing a foot race on the set of *Gladiator* and blaming the sand, and an early attempt to launch a streaming service during the dot-com bubble.
* **Shrinking:** Highly praised for its later seasons, featuring powerful performances by Harrison Ford and Michael J. Fox.
* **The Men Who Would Be King:** Nicole Laporte's book on DreamWorks covering Spielberg, David Geffen, and wild behind-the-scenes Hollywood anecdotes.
* **Masters of the Universe:** Described as a fun kids' movie with enough adult winks and one-liners to poke fun at old He-Man tropes.
* **House of the Dragon:** Debated over whether the current season has tailed off, compounded by a funny admission of watching the entire season without subtitles enabled.
---
Market Highs and Closing Thoughts
The episode wraps up by reflecting on the stock market hitting all-time highs once again, leaving the hosts marveling at how resilient the market has been despite everything thrown at it over the years. Looking back with hindsight, they muse about what they would have done differently a decade ago—namely, aggressively buying everything all the time and owning the QQQ ETF. However, they acknowledge that even with hindsight, investing was never easy, and future drawdowns and eventual recessions are inevitable over a 30-time horizon. Listeners are encouraged to reach out at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com for personal emails and responses before the hosts thank the production team and sign off.
* **Market Resilience:** The stock market continues to reach all-time highs despite numerous macro headwinds.
* **Hindsight Strategy:** Owning the Qs and aggressively buying everything consistently.
* **Contact:** Reach the show at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com for personal email responses.
By the way, to unlock the full functionality of all Apps, enable [Gemini Apps Activity](https://myactivity.google.com/product/gemini).
## Notable quotes
> [05:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=300s) The perfect number of blowups for a hedge fund manager is one.
> [15:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=914s) The story of situational awareness is in some way an old Wall Street lesson learned by every generation and then forgotten by the next. — Rob Copeland
> [15:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=914s) The market is like an ocean and eventually washes everybody away. — Michael Batnick
> [20:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1243s) Don't you know the 30-year bond is at 5.3%?! — Ben Carlson
> [33:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1986s) The degenerate bull market is in shambles while the legitimate bull market is reaching new all-time highs. How could you not love to see that?
> [51:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3102s) I'm not turning my child's calendar into a podcast. — Michael Batnick
## Mentioned
Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson, YCharts, Situational Awareness, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Citadel, Rob Copeland, Jason Zweig, John Arnold, Mark Rubinstein, Roger Lowenstein, Bespoke Investment Group, Anthropic, Warren Buffett, David Einhorn, Cliff Asness, Warren Pies, Todd Sohn, Jason Goepfert, Josh Brown, Goldman Sachs, Gunjan Banerji, Tim Cook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, SanDisk, Palantir, KOSPI, Jeff Ptak, Morningstar, Cathie Wood, ARK, Trump Media & Technology Group, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, Pura Vida Miami, Seth Rogen, Keanu Reeves, Sam Altman, OpenAI, Packy McCormick, Bua Capital, Robinhood, Vlad Tenev, Duality Research, Mark Walter, Guggenheim Investments, TWWG Global, Los Angeles Dodgers, Blue Owl Capital, UBS, Chris "Mad Dog" Russo, Rick Moranis, Macaulay Culkin, Michael B. Jordan, Paramount+, Christopher Nolan, Matt Damon, Sean Fennessey, Chris Ryan, Harrison Ford, Michael J. Fox, Nicole Laporte, DreamWorks
Hosts Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson argue that while aggressive leverage and retail speculation inevitably suffer sharp unwinds, the broader economy and underlying stock market remain fundamentally resilient. Examining the collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund alongside consumer and market indicators, they contend that genuine business fundamentals continue to overpower macro anxieties.
The Rise and Liquidation of Situational Awareness (0:05)
The hosts analyze the rapid collapse of Situational Awareness, a high-flying hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner. Despite lacking an institutional track record, the fund’s assets under management surged from $9.3 billion in March 2026 to $45 billion by July on the back of aggressive artificial intelligence pair trades. However, running an estimated 4x to 5x leverage—holding concentrated long positions in AI hardware while shorting traditional tech firms like Adobe—left no room for error when momentum flipped. By late July, margin calls forced the fund to sell its public book to Citadel at a 10% discount, though an early private stake in Anthropic cushioned overall inception gains to around 80%.
Carlson and Batnick compare the event to the 1998 collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, illustrating how rapid outperformance triggers cognitive overconfidence and excessive risk-taking. While public single-stock semiconductor volatility surged to 75% during the unwind, the hosts observe that an illiquid asset base saved the fund from total failure, underscoring an enduring Wall Street lesson on the structural dangers of leverage.
Market Resilience Over Speculative Unwinds (20:43)
Despite extreme single-day market swings—such as retail-favorite single stocks logging $243 million in net sales during a single session and 3.5% of South Korea's population receiving margin calls during a 40% KOSPI pullback—the broader market quickly absorbed the forced selling. Batnick and Carlson point out that speculative vehicles, like their informal 'Degenerate Dow,' were halved without dragging down broad indices, allowing the S&P 500 to push toward fresh record highs.
The durability of the rally is credited to real earnings growth in mega-cap technology rather than purely speculative momentum. Citing Goldman Sachs research, the hosts note that although tech concentration in equity indices exceeds levels seen during the 1999–2000 bubble, modern tech giants generate substantial cash flows. Furthermore, a rolling three-year 60/40 balanced portfolio has maintained real annualized returns of 12% to 14%, confirming that traditional diversification continues to function.
Retail Timing Pitfalls and Structural Shifting
Investor behavior continues to show severe disconnects between asset performance and realized investor returns. The hosts examine a DRAM ETF cited by Morningstar's Jeff Ptak that achieved a 102% return and ballooned to $26 billion in assets from April through July; because retail capital flooded in near the top before a 30% to 40% drawdown, investors suffered an aggregate dollar loss of $1.6 billion. Similarly, cryptocurrency sentiment displays broad apathy, with cumulative Bitcoin ETF outflows reaching $10.4 billion as prices failed to rebound alongside software equities.
Concurrently, retail platforms are evolving through automation, with Robinhood logging over 100,000 active agentic AI trading accounts. The hosts argue that while algorithmic rule-setting will not necessarily generate market alpha, it may help insulate individual investors from common emotional mistakes, such as panic-selling at local bottoms.
Consumer Spending Versus Macro Disconnects (49:38)
The hosts contrast pervasive social media pessimism and macro anxieties with vigorous real-world consumer behavior. Carlson highlights that July 23rd marked the busiest day for commercial aviation in history, alongside packed theme parks and strong service spending. Even as mortgage rates hover near 7% and central bank commentators debate interest-rate fine-tuning, consumer demand across entertainment and commercial services remains robust.
Commercial expansions also underscore this divergence. Morgan Stanley elevated its 2035 GLP-1 sales forecast to $190 billion across diabetes and obesity treatments, projecting market adoption to climb to 30% from its current 6%. Box office performance mirrored this consumer momentum, with *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* posting a record $360 million domestic opening weekend, signaling strong consumer demand despite broader economic skepticism.
Carlson and Batnick conclude that long-term investment success relies primarily on avoiding forced liquidation. While macro headlines, interest rate fluctuations, and speculative crashes dominate daily sentiment, diversified portfolios grounded in productive companies continue to withstand routine volatility over multi-decade horizons.
## Background
本期节目由 The Compound 频道于 2026 年 8 月 6 日在 YouTube 平台发布，为《Animal Spirits》播客第 476 期。节目简介显示，联合主持人迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）与本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）围绕美股动荡的 7 月、AI 对冲基金 Situational Awareness 的高杠杆爆仓事件、半导体板块震荡、60/40 经典资产配置策略的生命力、投资者行为差距以及宏观经济与流行文化等议题展开了深度研讨。
## TL;DR
本期节目深入剖析了由年轻天才创立的 AI 对冲基金 Situational Awareness 因滥用杠杆押注半导体而重蹈 LTCM 覆辙的爆仓始末，指出公募二级市场对高杠杆的无情惩罚；随后探讨了即便经历巨头财报分化与剧烈洗盘，美股大盘依然在散户恐慌抛售次日顽强创下历史新高的现象。主持人们用生动的数据反驳了悲观论调，论证了 60/40 投资组合的韧性、现实线下消费的持续繁荣，并拆解了投资者在半导体 ETF 上的追涨杀跌行为差距。此外，节目还审视了美联储预测的局限性、私募信贷领域的合规暗流，以及院线破纪录票房背后的“怀旧经济学”。
## Atmosphere & style
全片节奏欢快而充实，充满两位老友兼资深从业者之间默契十足的插科打诨与互损吐槽，将严肃硬核的金融风暴剖析与极其接地气的生活琐事无缝融合。迈克尔带有典型的纽约客感性与戏剧化风格，而本则扮演着冷静务实、一针见血的观察者，两人在中年代谢危机、家庭赶车吵架与好莱坞电影八卦的笑谈中穿插着对市场人性的深刻洞见。整场录制散发着浓郁的美式财经播客氛围，既有对高智商自大者的辛辣讽刺，又洋溢着对真实实体经济与长期投资常识的坚定乐观。
## Bulletin
- [11:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=703s) 前 OpenAI 员工利奥波德·阿申布伦纳创立的对冲基金 Situational Awareness 资产在数月内从 93 亿美元狂飙至 450 亿美元，但因维持约 4 倍的高杠杆押注半导体及做空 SaaS 股票，在近期科技股剧烈回撤中遭遇保证金危机，被迫折价 10% 将杠杆头寸全盘清仓给 Citadel。
- [19:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1179s) 市场波动与集中度创历史极值：利奥波德基金清算一度将半导体单股波动率推升至 75%，追平 2020 年 3 月和 2025 年 4 月极值；但散户出现单日 2.43 亿美元的微型恐慌性抛售后，标普 500 指数迅速跳空反弹再创新高。
- [35:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2115s) 投资者行为差距（Behavior Gap）再度显现：半导体主题 ETF（DRAM）自 4 月成立后规模激增至 260 亿美元且累计涨幅达 102%，但由于散户普遍在顶点追高后遭遇 30%-40% 回撤，投资者整体账面反而净亏损 16 亿美元。
- [57:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3462s) 加密市场陷入极端冷漠期：自去年 10 月见顶以来比特币 ETF 峰值流出达 104 亿美元，近两个月流出占比近 90%；在美股纳斯达克与软件股大幅反弹的背景下，比特币原地踏步，以太坊较峰值仍回撤逾 62%。
- [59:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3562s) 私募信贷领域暗流涌动：道奇队老板马克·沃尔特旗下的古根海姆投资公司遭遇内部举报，因涉嫌将约 160 亿美元的私募信贷贷款经由第三方转入自身控股的保险公司资产负债表，目前正面临曼哈顿联邦检方与 SEC 的严厉调查。
## Key takeaways
- [09:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=548s) Situational Awareness 基金爆仓宛如现代版长期资本管理公司（LTCM），重演了《当天才失败时》的悲剧：无论宏观预测多么精准、智商多高，毁灭投资组合的元凶永远是过高的杠杆。
- [13:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=817s) 资产规模极速膨胀易引发交易员的“可卡因脑”效应，神经系统的兴奋与耐受度提升会导致风险控制机制形同虚设；公募二级市场容错率极低，高杠杆长短仓与流动性错配最终往往以惨烈清算收场。
- [18:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1093s) 沃伦·巴菲特的长盛不衰在于其使用了最稳健的杠杆形态（保险浮存金带来的低成本甚至负成本长期资金），而现代对冲基金大多难以复制这一资本结构，往往在周期退潮时遭遇灭顶之灾。
- [22:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1334s) 美股大盘在密集宏观利空与半导体大震荡中再创新高，牛市中的暴力洗盘（Shakeout）后 3 个月胜率历史上高达 86%，表明在企业盈利支撑下牛市韧性远超看空者的悲观叙事。
- [27:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1654s) 60/40 股债平衡策略远未消亡，过去 3 年依然录得 12% 至 14% 的稳健年化回报；否定 60/40 本质上就是否定分散投资，而分散投资在长期资产配置中永远有效。
- [31:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1909s) 韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）因半导体狂热在年内翻倍后 5 周内暴跌 40%，约 3.5% 人口收到追加保证金通知；散户被动爆仓与外资机构底部接盘形成极端对照，再次警示投资者绝不能沦为“被迫卖出者”。
- [37:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2247s) 2026 年股票型 ETF 资金流入量超出此前历史纪录 50%，呈现决堤式全面浪潮；与此同时，特朗普媒体与科技集团推出 Truth API 向机构付费售卖一手核心发帖，引发合规与政治商业化争议。
- [40:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2438s) 宏观分析师过度神化了美联储的作用：美联储实际上只有在充当“最后贷款人”化解危机的 5% 时间里起决定性作用，其余 95% 时间的微观预测和加降息 25 个基点在长远大局中如同“中年金融男的星座学”。
- [42:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2562s) 经济学版“许愿柳枝”思想实验揭示：愿望往往伴随不可承受的代价；市场无法通过简单降息解决购房难题，当前 30 年期房贷利率持续居高不下，依据利率择时买房的策略已让大量购房者陷入被动。
- [49:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2977s) GLP-1 减肥药市场前景极度广阔，摩根士丹利将 2035 年销售预测上调至 1900 亿美元，预计美国肥胖人群用药渗透率将从当前的 6% 飙升至 30%，随着年轻一代医生接班，社会认知与病耻感将逐步破除。
- [51:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3105s) 硅谷精英试图用 AI 播客接管家庭日常交流，正在剥夺人与人之间真实的连接；相比过度抽象化的科技工具，身体力行的体力劳动与动手解决现实问题反而是现代人保持身心健康与幸福感的重要途径。
- [56:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3398s) Robinhood 智能代理交易用户超 10 万，虽然算法纪律或优于散户冲动操作，但投资者极易陷入频繁微调提示词与规则的新困境；而在加密领域，极度冷漠（Apathy）取代了以往暴跌时的冷嘲热讽，呈现出危险的疲态。
- [01:03:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3810s) 线下消费繁荣刺破社交媒体的经济悲观假象：商业客运创下航空史上最繁忙纪录，餐饮娱乐全面爆满，院线在《蜘蛛侠》创纪录开画与诺兰《奥德赛》带动下迎来影史级周末，印证社会消费底气依然坚实。
- [01:07:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4026s) 好莱坞全面倒向“怀旧大牛市”，从经典 IP 重启到 90 年代流行文化复兴，反映出内容工业在超级英雄热潮降温后的路径依赖；而在现实投资中，即使拥有“死抱纳斯达克 100 指数”的后视镜视角，穿越漫长周期的回撤与风浪依然极其艰难。
## Detailed walkthrough
### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=0s) YCharts 赞助与节目开场
节目以 YCharts 的赞助广告拉开序幕。当市场走势令人不安、波动加剧时，客户往往会提出同样的核心疑问：“现在是入场投资的好时机，还是应该继续等待？”对于理财顾问而言，最有说服力的回应莫过于用清晰翔实的数据阐释长期投资的价值。YCharts 为此提供了包含十大核心图表的图表包（Top 10 Visuals deck），涵盖坚持投资的力量以及退休取款率对财富寿命的影响等策略可视化工具。这些图表完全支持定制、可添加机构自身品牌 Logo，并随市场变化持续更新。
随后迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）与本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）正式开启本期《Animal Spirits》。巴特尼克直呼本期节目将是一场“马拉松”，因为他们的备忘录文档足足长达 40 页，远超平时体量。两人感慨距离上一期节目虽不算太久，但感觉像过去了一个半月，市场内外发生了太多翻天覆地的事件，甚至包括惊人的影视文化动态（巴特尼克爆粗口提及《蜘蛛侠》相关新闻，并承诺稍后探讨）。
- 赞助商专属福利：通过节目链接可获取 YCharts Top 10 Visuals 图表包，新用户订阅首年专业版可享 20% 折扣。
- 本期录制文档长达 40 页，涵盖宏观经济、财报、半导体及突发行业丑闻。
---
### [01:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=85s) 疯狂的 7 月与市场娱乐性
巴特尼克率先将焦点引向美股市场，发问 7 月是否是近年来最好玩、最引人入胜且充满戏剧性的单月行情。卡尔森表示赞同，认为进入 2020 年代以来，股市的娱乐属性空前爆发；相比之下，此前令人瞩目的月份往往充满痛苦（如俄乌战争爆发的 3 月，以及 2025 年 4 月）。卡尔森指出，由于当前资金流转速度极快、涉资规模庞大，外加人工智能技术创新热潮的催化，市场的节奏和观赏性远超以往任何时代。
有趣的是，如果单看标普 500 指数（S&P 500），整个 7 月仅仅微跌约 10 个基点（0.1%）。卡尔森调侃道，如果一个人与世隔绝住在山洞里，只看月度收盘数据，大概会觉得这是个波澜不惊的枯燥月份。巴特尼克则反驳称现实中没人会这样看市场，尤其是听这个播客的受众都在密切盯盘。卡尔森打趣道，那些实行定投后撒手不管（DIY set-it-and-forget-it）的投资者或许没有享受到看盘的刺激，但生活可能更快乐。巴特尼克随后炫耀起自己的好心情，笑称距离纽约尼克斯队夺冠已经过去 7 周，自己至今仍沉浸在狂喜中，衣柜里全换成了尼克斯的周边 T 恤，连妻子罗宾（Robin）今早都忍不住吐槽他到底问的是“哪一件尼克斯衣服”。
- 表面走势：标普 500 指数在 7 月几乎平盘，仅下挫约 10 个基点。
- 底层剧烈分化：各大巨头业绩披露密集轰炸，背后掩盖了巨大的风格轮动与个股振幅。
---
### [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=216s) 剧力万钧的科技周与“情境意识”基金爆仓
在表面平静的指数之下，过去一周集中上演了科技巨头的财报风暴：苹果（Apple）发布财报，亚马逊（Amazon）与微软（Microsoft）交出炸裂的超预期业绩（blowout numbers），Meta（Facebook）股价经历急跌后深 V 反弹；与此同时，半导体板块遭遇暴力下挫，直接引爆了全周乃至全年最富戏剧性的对冲基金爆仓事件——这家基金极具讽刺意味地命名为“情境意识”（Situational Awareness）。
卡尔森赞叹这简直是现实版《大空头》，连著名财经作家迈克尔·刘易斯（Michael Lewis）都写不出如此完美的剧本：主角长相气质宛如好莱坞“对冲基金爆仓专业户”特型演员，年轻、身处 AI 浪潮核心、智商极高，浑然天成。涉事核心人物是年仅 24 至 25 岁的年轻神童利奥波德·阿申布伦纳（Leopold Aschenbrenner）。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: 对冲基金 Situational Awareness 兴衰链路
accDescr: 展示创始人从早慧神童、OpenAI 履历到高杠杆押注导致基金爆仓的全过程
subgraph Profile["背景与光环"]
A["天才神童 Leopold<br/>15 岁进哥伦比亚/总代表"] --> B["OpenAI 前员工<br/>因泄密遭解雇"]
B --> C["发表 10 年 AI 宏观预言备忘录<br/>被誉为 'AI 诺查丹玛斯'"]
end
subgraph Fund["基金运作与失衡"]
C --> D["创立 Situational Awareness<br/>获 Altman/Collison 等大佬投资"]
D --> E["宏观赛道判断精准<br/>极度重仓半导体/AI 资产"]
E --> F["致命失误：施加极高财务杠杆"]
end
subgraph Collapse["结局映射"]
F --> G["半导体板块暴跌<br/>基金彻底清盘爆仓"]
G -.-> H["历史重演：类似 LTCM<br/>《当天才失败时》再现"]
end
```
阿申布伦纳在欧洲长大，智力超群，15 岁便考入哥伦比亚大学并以告别演说者（Valedictorian）身份毕业。然而，巴特尼克感叹他与他的金主们显然没有读过对冲基金从业者的必读书目——记载长期资本管理公司（LTCM）覆灭史的《当天才失败时》（*When Genius Failed*）。巧合的是，研究机构 Bespoke 制作的一张对照图表显示，在以 Netscape 与 ChatGPT 为时间轴起点的科技周期比照中，“情境意识”基金的爆仓节点竟与当年 LTCM 陨落的时间窗口严丝合缝地重叠。
- 创始人履历：阿申布伦纳年仅 24-25 岁，15 岁入读哥伦比亚大学，此前因涉嫌泄露敏感信息被 OpenAI 解雇。
- 规模膨胀：在没有任何专业投资经验的情况下，不到两年前以数亿美元起家创立 AI 主题基金，资金规模一度超越比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）或丹·勒布（Dan Loeb）等老牌大佬。
- 顶级背书：靠撰写极具前瞻性的 AI 宏观备忘录募资，投资人囊括 Stripe 创始人科利森兄弟（Collison brothers）、Meta 高管及萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman），其妻子为 Anthropic 的幕僚长。
最荒诞不经的一幕在于现实比小说更离奇（truth is stranger than fiction）：《华尔街日报》报道称，基金崩盘当天，阿申布伦纳正在北加州举办婚礼，而婚礼前夕居然还煞有介事地安排了“思想研讨会”（pre-wedding colloquium），包括嘉宾小组讨论（panels）和分组研讨会议（breakout sessions）。尽管巴特尼克对此表示匪夷所思、半信半疑，卡尔森却指出在硅谷这种做派完全符合常理。知名博主蒂姆·费里斯（Tim Ferriss）曾将其奉为“AI 界的诺查丹玛斯”（AI Nostradamus），这一虚名成了典型的“死亡之吻”。卡尔森与巴特尼克强调，阿申布伦纳对未来十年的 AI 宏观推演完全命中，但“宏观逻辑正确”与“成为一名优秀的投资组合经理”之间有着鸿沟——由于他在半导体等头寸上施加了极其庞大而脆弱的高额杠杆，最终在行情回撤中灰飞烟灭。
### [09:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=548s) 杠杆的魔咒与《当天才失败时》的翻版
在风险投资（VC）领域，投资者不会面临追加保证金（margin call）的强制平仓风险，而这位年轻基金经理的打法显然更适合一级市场。他的对冲基金之所以在经历暴跌后账面回报依然惊人，核心原因在于极早期重仓了 Anthropic——单凭这一笔神级投资带来的惊人涨幅，就足以支撑整个基金的表现，甚至掩盖了其他通过五倍杠杆操作导致的崩盘。然而，毁灭投资者的永远是同一个元凶：杠杆。
迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）与本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）指出，《当天才失败时》（*When Genius Failed*）本该成为任何从业者的必读书目。基金的毁灭从来与智商高低无关，唯一的死因就是过高的杠杆。平时大家对两倍杠杆 ETF 尚且报以嘲弄，而据传这位年轻人竟然以四倍甚至更高的杠杆运作，即每一美元本金撬动四美元的风险敞口。这种极端的去杠杆（unwind）抛售，甚至在短期内拖累了整个大盘。
当年长期资本管理公司（LTCM）崩盘时，所罗门兄弟出身的天才交易员约翰·梅里韦瑟（John Meriwether）也曾陷入这种极度自信的陷阱。LTCM 进行的是固定收益套利，杠杆倍数甚至高达几十倍。当时基金净值暴跌 50%，梅里韦瑟还对人自我安慰说手里还有几十亿美元；对方直接点醒他：“你不明白，当你亏掉 50% 时，水里全闻到血腥味的鲨鱼已经围上来了，你已经彻底完了。”过度聪明往往催生盲目自大，最顶级的投资者不仅需要高智商，更需要常识与情境自知之明（Situational Awareness）。最具有讽刺意味的是，这只基金的名字恰恰就叫做“情境意识”（Situational Awareness），简直是“阿兰妮斯·莫莉塞特式（Alanis Morissette）”的黑色幽默。
- **杠杆倍数**：据传该基金运作时维持约 4 倍杠杆（4:1 的总敞口）。
- **历史镜像**：类似 1998 年长期资本管理公司（LTCM）的覆灭，核心症结均是聪明绝顶的交易员误以为能够靠智商驾驭高杠杆。
- **Anthropic 的支撑**：早期押注 Anthropic 产生的巨额浮盈，是该基金在公募头寸崩塌后仍未彻底归零的关键支柱。
---
### [11:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=703s) 资产狂飙、多空双杀与割肉给 Citadel
墙倒众人推是金融圈乃至整个社会的残酷常态，尤其是此前这位基金经理曾享受了极尽赞美与光环，如今在周期的另一端自然难逃落井下石。从业绩来看，该基金成立以来的峰值收益率曾达到令人咋舌的 2700%。马克·鲁宾斯坦（Mark Rubinstein）梳理的一张图表生动展现了这场惊心动魄的资产暴增与骤跌：
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Situational Awareness Fund Asset Trajectory
accDescr: Three-month explosive asset surge followed by emergency liquidation to Citadel.
subgraph Surge ["资产极速膨胀"]
M1["2026年3月<br/>93亿美元"] --> M2["2026年6月<br/>200+亿美元"]
M2 --> M3["2026年7月<br/>450亿美元"]
end
subgraph Collapse ["闪崩与接盘"]
M3 --> L1["7月24日<br/>致信称下跌为买入良机"]
L1 --> L2["7月30日<br/>折价10%将杠杆头寸清仓给 Citadel"]
end
```
在短短三个月内，管理资产从 90 多亿美元像滚雪球一样膨胀到 450 亿美元。然而，极速的成功让管理层陷入了彻底的无敌幻觉。7 月 24 日，他还向投资者发信宣称近期科技股回调是千载难逢的“黄金买入机会”；结果仅仅过了几个交易日，到了 7 月 30 日，基金便因保证金压力撑不住，不得不将整个公开市场的杠杆多头组合以折价 10% 的代价全盘割肉甩卖给 Citadel。
这次爆仓并非单向溃败，而是“鳄鱼大嘴狠狠合拢”的双向绞杀：他既大举加杠杆做多 AI 核心硬件与概念股，又大肆做空 Adobe 等被视为面临 AI 颠覆的软件股，两端同时反噬。高杠杆完全剥夺了仓位的生存空间，即便许多标的在一年内累计涨幅仍超 1000%（例如闪迪类半导体），但如果使用无杠杆现券，经历 30% 的回撤完全可以安全硬抗，但在高倍杠杆面前，任何微小的波动都会直接触发灭顶之灾。
- **资产规模骤变**：2026 年 3 月约 93 亿美元，6 月突破 200 亿美元，7 月飙升至 450 亿美元，随即在 30 天内遭遇巨震。
- **神话破灭的时间线**：7 月 24 日发信安抚称是买入良机；7 月 30 日被迫将公开市场杠杆组合以 10% 折扣打包甩卖给肯·格里芬的 Citadel。
- **交易策略结构**：杠杆做多底层 AI 标的，同时做空 Adobe 等传统 SaaS 软件股，遭遇两头打脸的“双向夹击”。
---
### [13:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=817s) “可卡因脑”、爆仓额度与人性的重复学费
当一个人目睹资产在三个月内从 90 亿飙升到 450 亿时，大脑已完全被神经化学递质所劫持。正如贾森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）在《点石成金》（*Your Money and Your Brain*）中所引用的脑科学研究：投资暴赚时大脑神经元的活跃状态，与吸食可卡因或注射吗啡时的兴奋扫描图像完全一致。这种“可卡因脑”（cocaine brain）会让交易员产生无可阻挡的兴奋感，并且耐受度不断提升，需要每一次押注更重、杠杆更高，才能获得同等强烈的刺激，最终导致风险管理机制彻底形同虚设。
马克·鲁宾斯坦与传奇天然气交易员约翰·阿诺德（John Arnold）都曾提出过一个耐人寻味的观点：“一个优秀对冲基金经理一生中最完美的爆仓次数是且仅是一次。”阿诺德在当年招募明星交易员时也坚持这一原则——每个人都需要在职业生涯中被市场狠狠迎面痛击一次，这是一张被允许的“缓击球”（mulligan）免死金牌，唯有经历过灭顶之灾，才可能真正建立起敬畏之心；但如果有第二次、第三次爆仓，那就绝不可原谅。
《纽约时报》记者罗伯·科普兰（Rob Copeland，曾著有关于瑞·达利欧与桥水基金的畅销书《基金》）对此评论道：“‘情境意识’的故事，本质上是华尔街的一个古老教训——它被每一代人痛苦地学会，然后又被下一代人迅速忘得一干二净。”尽管书架上摆满了历史教训，但大概只有 2% 的人能够仅凭读书就吸取教训，其余 98% 的人必须亲自向“市场之神”缴纳昂贵的学费，非得亲自试一把自己能不能成为下一个沃伦·巴菲特或择时之神，撞得头破血流后才能认清现实。
---
### [16:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=968s) 门禁深严的名流俱乐部与公募选股者的宿命
尽管公开市场的杠杆组合遭遇惨烈清算，导致基金单月暴跌近 70%，但由于其重仓的未上市资产表现强劲（特别是年内暴涨约 400% 的 Anthropic），该基金年内迄今的整体回报率依然维持在 80% 左右。对于大多数出资人而言，只要这只基金能帮助他们拿到稀缺的 Anthropic 早期份额，这笔投资就已经物超所值。
迈克尔与本探讨指出，这只基金属于门槛极高的“天鹅绒红绳”（velvet rope）专属基金，非超级名流或核心圈内人根本无法参与。这类资金通常设有严格的锁定期（lockup），且投资者大多财力雄厚，因此并不会像散户那样恐慌性要求赎回；相反，由于其持仓深度绑定了未上市公司，许多金主甚至愿意在他摔倒后继续追加资金提供第二次机会。
不过，两位主持人都认为，这位天才操盘手的能力圈完全属于风投（VC）领域，根本不适合在流动性公开市场做长短仓交易。公募二级市场是一个无情的绞肉机，历史上绝大多数名噪一时的公开市场明星选股者，最终都会以爆仓惨淡收场。早在 2015 年，本·卡尔森就曾写过一篇博客，把历史上所有著名金融家按出生年份标注在道琼斯工业指数的百年大图上，生动揭示了市场大师的更迭周期——几乎每一个试图在公募市场用高杠杆超越周期的人，最终都难逃周期的无情碾压。
### [18:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1093s) 传奇投资人的黄昏与巴菲特无法复制的杠杆
两位主持人回顾了投资史上的传奇基金经理。迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）指出，如果按出生年份排序列出历史级的投资大师，会发现近期几乎后继无人——最近代的一批如戴维·艾因霍恩（David Einhorn）和克利夫·阿斯内斯（Cliff Asness）均出生于 1960 年代。即便强如艾因霍恩，过去几年因持续做空科技股也遭遇了市场的迎头痛击。市场就像一片大海，无论曾被赋予怎样的光环，最终都会被浪潮冲刷淘汰。
这也正是沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）令人惊叹之处。本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）分析道，巴菲特并非不用杠杆，而是运用了最聪明、最稳健的杠杆形式（即通过保险浮存金获取极低甚至负成本的长期资金）。令人不可思议的是，后来的对冲基金经理们几乎没人学到精髓；艾因霍恩和比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）等人虽然也尝试复制保险公司模式，但依然难以逃脱周期的惩罚。随后两人开起玩笑，引用巴菲特那句著名的“退潮时才知道谁在裸泳”，调侃韩国和欧洲水上乐园随处可见的裸体与无拘无束的文化，以此借喻当前剧烈波动的市场中，投资者的体面在眨眼间就会荡然无存。
### [19:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1179s) 剧烈波动的市场：从 Mag 7 大跌到半导体爆仓
在如今极速运转的金融市场中，投资者往往“在一周内就能经历从自命不凡的天才沦为彻底的蠢蛋”。本分享了自己在 7 月 29 日记录的数据：当时美股“科技七巨头”（Magnificent Seven）中有六只陷入大幅回撤，跌幅普遍超过 15%，微软（Microsoft）跌幅甚至达 30%。然而仅仅两天后，苹果（Apple）此前虽创历史新高却又下挫近 15%，微软反手大涨近 20%，Meta 跌 10%，亚马逊（Amazon）大涨 20%，随后微软甚至从低点强势反弹了 30%。
在半导体板块，这种过山车行情尤为极端。前一秒投资者还觉得自己不可战胜，下一秒行情便瞬间崩溃。在利奥波德（Leopold）的对冲基金爆仓遭遇清算后，城堡投资（Citadel）介入接盘。两人就这究竟算不算“纾困”（Bailout）展开辩论——迈克尔认为“Bailout”通常指政府动用纳税人资金救助，这里属于纯粹的追加保证金（Margin Call）引发的商业清算；本则反驳称，如果不是 Citadel 介入止住流动性失血，必定会引发更大的连锁爆仓，本质上就是边缘性的商业纾困。暴跌之后，闪迪（SanDisk / 指相关芯片概念股）单日暴涨 25%，其他半导体股票单日也纷纷跳涨 15% 到 25%。
- **波动率历史极值**：引用沃伦·派斯（Warren Pies）的数据，利奥波德基金清算事件将半导体单只股票波动率推升至 75%。历史上仅有另外两次达到该极端水平，分别是 2020 年 3 月（疫情崩盘）和 2025 年 4 月。
- **市场高度集中化**：引用托德·森（Todd Sohn）的图表统计，在标普 500 指数历史上前 10 大重仓股对年度涨幅贡献度最高的 8 个年份中，有 6 个年份发生在 2020 年之后。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: 半导体杠杆资金链断裂与极端反弹机制
accDescr: 展示了从高杠杆多头押注到遭遇追加保证金、Citadel 介入以及后续剧烈轧空反弹的完整过程。
subgraph 杠杆崩溃阶段
A["半导体/科技龙头剧烈回撤"] --> B["Leopold 基金遭遇 Margin Call"]
B --> C["单股波动率飙升至 75%<br/>（追平 2020年3月 与 2025年4月）"]
end
subgraph 救助与逆转阶段
C --> D["Citadel 介入接盘资产<br/>（商业性质纾困阻止流动性踩踏）"]
D --> E["恐慌出清与极端轧空"]
E --> F["板块单日暴涨 15%-25%<br/>指数重返历史新高"]
end
```
### [22:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1334s) 不变的人性：牛市震荡洗盘与不可阻挡的新高
迈克尔认为，在极高集中度和前所未见的波动结构下，传统的历史量化数据点大多已经失效，唯有“基于行为心理学”（behavioral-based）的数据永远管用。他引用了杰森·格普弗特（Jason Goepfert）的研究：纳斯达克 100 指数在整体处于上升趋势中，从三个月低点直接跃升至三个月来最大单日涨幅。这种牛市中的暴力洗盘（Shakeout）纯粹是人性的投射——突发坏消息让投资者产生“牛市是否结束”的恐慌，随后强劲的暴力反弹瞬间粉碎担忧，所有人又蜂拥“重新回到船上”（Everybody back in the boat）。历史上除了 2000 年 4 月该信号失效外，其余时刻后 3 个月的胜率高达 86%。
本强调，在录制本期节目时，美股盘前再次逼近历史新高。而在此之前，市场面临着一系列极其可怕的宏观阴霾：两场地缘战争、油价飙升、通胀粘性、长端国债收益率攀升、对冲基金爆仓、软件股及半导体崩盘，以及一位新上任、似乎遭所有人讨厌的美联储主席。本坦言，很多人批评他对美债危机和收益率上行视而不见是“天真盲目”，但他之所以不担心，是因为股市本身完全不在乎——只要底层企业依然在源源不断地盈利，经济的基本面就依然坚固。
### [24:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1454s) 现实的繁荣、看跌者的“智商优越感”与 60/40 组合的韧性
为了具象化这种脱节感，本分享了最近周二晚上与妻子去芝加哥的经历：沿着河畔步道散步时，满眼所见的每家餐厅、每间酒吧都挤满了人。这让他产生了一种荒诞的冲动，想抓着那些喝着精酿啤酒、点着 19 美元一杯昂贵鸡尾酒的人大喊：“你们难道不知道 30 年期国债收益率都到 5.3% 了吗？你们在干什么？”迈克尔也提到，他前几天与乔希·布朗（Josh Brown）聚餐时，有人聊起芯片股暴跌，迈克尔表示目前算力短缺依然真实存在、AI 仍处于非常早期的阶段，对方却嘲讽道：“好吧，但你永远都是个大多头。”迈克尔反思道，在投资世界里，看空论调总是听起来更深刻、更聪明，而持看涨立场的人往往被视作愚蠢的乐观派；但事实是市场已经证明了其强大韧性——即便七巨头领跌、半导体暴跌，等权指数依然能创下新高并持续上攻。
在谈到即将上映的汤姆·克鲁斯新电影时，本引用了高盛（Goldman Sachs）的最新研究报告：当前科技股在美股总市值中的权重已经正式超越了 2000 年互联网泡沫顶峰时期的水平。但与当年的泡沫完全不同，如今这些科技巨头拥有极为充沛的现金流与坚固的护城河，这种高权重不仅合情合理，甚至可以说是理所应当的。最后，两人谈到了本年代表现一直低迷的 60/40 股债平衡策略（过去 5 年债券回报几乎颗粒无收）。高盛的滚动 3 年期 60/40 组合数据显示，得益于股票端强劲的资本增值，平衡型投资组合在近年来依然带来了非常可观的回报，展现了分散化配置在实战中的强大生命力。
### [27:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1654s) 60/40 组合永不消亡与长期真实回报
虽然债券市场在过去一段时间表现糟糕，但股市表现强劲，使得经典的 60/40 股债平衡投资组合在过去三年中实现了每年 12% 至 14% 的回报率。Ben Carlson 指出，这恰恰证明了资产配置与分散投资的力量；任何声称“60/40 策略已死”的人，本质上就是在断言“分散投资已死”，但分散投资永远不会消亡。随后两人探讨了一张反映 10 年滚动真实回报率（通胀调整后）的图表，其中对比了 60/40 组合与涵盖了私募市场和全球资产的“全球市场投资组合”（Global Portfolio）。虽然当前的回报率数值表面看起来处于高位，但若纵观历史长河，它既没有大幅偏离历史均值，也没有高出中位数太多。
如果盲目地把这张走势图拿给一个非金融从业人员看，询问图表上是否有任何突出的异常点，对方大概率只会觉得这仅仅是一条正常的上升趋势线。历史上有大量时期的真实回报远高于当前水平，目前的表现并不存在非理性的极度偏离。
- 60/40 组合在过去三年中实现了每年约 12% - 14% 的强劲年化回报。
- 10 年滚动真实回报（经通胀调整）目前处于稳健上升趋势，但相比历史峰值并未严重偏离均值或中位数。
---
### [28:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1719s) 散户重仓股重挫、微型恐慌与大盘新高
根据彭博社引用的高盛散户最青睐股票篮子（Goldman Sachs Retail Favorites Basket）数据，该组合刚刚经历了自 2023 年以来最糟糕的单月表现。两人推测该专有篮子里大概率充斥着 Palantir、七巨头（Magnificent 7）以及闪存相关股票。有趣的是，几年前高盛推崇的还是“对冲基金最爱股票篮子”，而如今散户与对冲基金的持仓重合度极高，几乎变成了完全相同的资产池。《华尔街日报》的 Gunjan Banerji 披露，散户在上周二净卖出了 2.43 亿美元的单只股票，创下了自 2020 年 COVID 崩盘以来最大的单日净流出。然而正如历史屡次上演的那样，这一极度悲观的“微型投降”（mini capitulation）发生后，次日市场便迎来了强劲反弹。
到了周二上午 9 点 38 分录制节目时，标普 500 指数跳空高开，再度刷新了人类历史上的最高纪录。这与追涨杀跌、在底部抛售的散户形成了极其鲜明的对比。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Retail Flow vs Market Reaction
accDescr: 展现散户情绪与市场走势反向关系的流程图
subgraph RetailPanic["散户行为模式"]
A["高盛散户重仓股大跌<br/>创2023年以来最差单月表现"] --> B["散户单日净卖出2.43亿美元<br/>创疫情以来最大单日抛售潮"]
end
subgraph MarketOutcome["市场实际反应"]
B --> C["空头动能耗尽<br/>形成'微型投降'"]
C --> D["大盘次日迅速强力反弹"]
D --> E["标普500跳空高开<br/>再创人类历史新高"]
end
```
- 散户最爱股票篮子创下 2023 年以来的单月最大跌幅。
- 散户在上周二单日净抛售 2.43 亿美元个股，为疫情崩盘以来的最高单日流出规模。
- 录制播客当天上午 9:38，标普 500 指数开盘跳空上涨，创下历史全新高点。
---
### [29:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1796s) 吐槽苹果发布会与鸡肋的“AI体验”
Michael Batnick 谈及自己收听了苹果公司的最新财报电话会议，并提到这可能是 Tim Cook 主持的最后几次财报会之一。尽管管理层像往常一样守口如瓶，但他们着重强调了依托 AI 功能赋能的 iPhone 17 的未来潜力。对此，Michael 极为犀利地吐槽当前苹果的所谓 AI 功能根本是“一无是处”，甚至连最基础的日常任务都错误百出。例如在语音转文字时，他说“Knicks”（尼克斯队），系统每次都顽固地识别成“next”，即便重复强调也无法纠正。
周末他带着儿子 Logan 去纽约上州参加明年寄宿夏令营的体验日（Rookie Day），送完孩子后顺路游览了富兰克林·罗斯福（FDR）故居海德公园（Hyde Park）及附近的范德比尔特庄园。沿途拍下一堆风景历史照片后，他想直接对手机说：“嘿 Siri，把所有海德公园的照片发给我爸”，但 Siri 完全无法处理这种基本指令。Ben 也深有同感，表示自己不得不把通讯录里妻子的名字由“Courtney”直接改成“Wife”，因为每次喊 Siri 给 Courtney 打电话，系统要么拨给 Corey，要么拨给其他莫名其妙的人。不过两人也自嘲道，无论消费者如何对智能语音骂娘，美股市场根本不在意这种细节，股价依然一路高歌猛进。
---
### [31:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1909s) 韩国 Kospi 指数巨震与杠杆投机的惩罚
国际市场方面，全球第六大股市韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）上演了一场极致的“过山车”。受半导体交易的狂热驱动，该指数年内曾一度翻倍，然而随后仅仅在五周时间内，整个市场惨烈暴跌了 40%。即便经历如此惊人的暴跌，年内迄今它依然累计上涨了近 50%。这轮踩踏背后是惨烈的散户爆仓，据报道韩国甚至有高达 3.5% 的总人口收到了追缴保证金通知（Margin Call）。数据图表清晰地展示了资金的极端分化：韩国本土散户被迫爆仓斩仓，而外资机构则在底部疯狂扫货、抄底筹码。
Michael 强调，作为股票投资者，“生存是第一要义”，永远不要让自己陷入被迫卖出（forced seller）的绝境。过去几年许多人因为市场上充斥着散户上杠杆、爆炒量子计算等投机行为，就断言牛市虚假且即将崩塌。Michael 认为，在 24/7 全天候交易和网络论坛信息光速传播的时代，这种投机炒作行为永远不会消失。值得欣慰的是，在本轮牛市中，不理性的投机行为正在被精准惩罚——不仅双倍杠杆半导体交易惨遭血洗，他们的“堕落道琼斯”（Degenerate Dow）散户概念股篮子也已腰斩。在正规主流牛市屡创历史新高的同时，边缘的投机泡沫正在被无情挤出。
- 韩国 Kospi 指数在年内翻倍后，短短 5 周内暴跌 40%，但年内涨幅仍维持在近 50% 左右。
- 韩国约有 3.5% 的人口在此次半导体崩盘中收到追加保证金通知。
- 市场形成极端对手盘：本土杠杆散户遭清算割肉，外国机构投资者大举接盘抄底。
---
### [35:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2115s) DRAM ETF 的行为差距：赚了指数却赔了钱
Morningstar 研究员 Jeffrey Ptak 提出的数据揭示了投资者“行为差距”（Behavior Gap）依然残酷。以一只代号为 DRAM 的半导体主题 ETF 为例，该基金自 4 月份成立后狂揽 260 亿美元资产，并在短时间内录得了高达 102% 的累计回报率。然而令人讽刺的是，这只表现亮眼的基金却导致其持有者合计亏损了 16 亿美元。原因在于绝大部分资金都是在该基金经历了大幅暴涨、处于顶点时才蜂拥买入，随后该 ETF 便回撤了 30% 到 40%，将追高的散户悉数套牢。
两人对此展开了技术性辩论。Michael 提出质疑，认为这种按“时间加权 vs 资金加权”计算出的结果虽然在数学上属实，但主要反映的是“平均每块钱”（Average Dollar）的糟糕遭遇，并不一定代表中位数投资者的真实体验，担心数据会产生误导。Ben 则回应强调，这种资金流动模式与当年的 ARK 基金如出一辙——巨额资金永远在历史业绩爆发的高点跑步入场接盘，随后在暴跌中承受净值毁灭。无论具体数学细节如何拆解，这种“高位追涨、随后遭重创”的散户行为模式是无可辩驳的客观事实。
- DRAM ETF 成立仅数月便吸金 260 亿美元，区间净值翻倍（+102%）。
- 随后基金净值下挫 30%-40%，导致投资者整体账面出现 16 亿美元的净亏损。
- 资本追逐滞后业绩的现象再次验证了典型投资行为偏差与 ARK 基金当年的教训如出一辙。
### [37:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2247s) ETF 资金流入创纪录与 Truth Social 的付费 API 争议
Ben Carlson 和 Michael Batnick 讨论了由 Todd Sohn 制作的一张令人瞠目结舌的图表：自 2017 年以来的年度累计股票型 ETF 资金流向对比。过去每一年全年的资金流入总量都会比前一年稳步递增，但 2026 年的表现直接跨入了“外太空”（another stratosphere），资金流入规模比去年创下的历史纪录还要高出 50%。迈克尔好奇这巨大的缺口究竟源自何处，除了像半导体等热门资产（如 SMH）以及被调侃为“全是 AI 的炒作热钱”之外，本推测这或许也和退休人群将 401(k) 资金从传统共同基金（Mutual Funds）转向 ETF 有关，不过迈克尔认为更像是大闸决堤般的全面资金浪潮。
随后，两人将话题转向一条颇具争议的新闻：CNBC 报道，特朗普媒体与科技集团（Trump Media and Technology Group，Truth Social 母公司）于 8 月 1 日上线了一项名为 Truth API 的付费数据服务。该服务允许机构客户通过授权接口，以更快的速度直接获取来自唐纳德·特朗普以及平台上其他核心账号的帖子，从而第一时间捕捉影响市场的“Truths”（真实动态）。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Truth API 商业模式流向图
accDescr: 展示 Truth Social 如何将特朗普的核心社交动态转化为向对冲基金等机构收费的实时数据服务
subgraph 平台端["平台动态"]
A["特朗普等核心账号发帖"]
end
subgraph 商业化接口["Truth API"]
B["付费快速直连数据流<br>(Truth API)"]
end
subgraph 机构客户["市场反应"]
C["对冲基金与高频交易机构"]
D["抢先进行市场交易"]
end
A --> B
B --> C
C --> D
```
迈克尔和本对这种赤裸裸的变现模式感到震惊与好笑，甚至怀疑这在合规上是否存在问题：“这合规吗？他们甚至都懒得做任何公关修饰，比如宣称把这笔收入捐赠做慈善。”迈克尔指出，特朗普家族本身就是该上市公司的最大股东；假如换成苹果公司搞一个“Truth Apple”，宣布付费客户可以提前 5 分钟看到财报，市场早就炸锅了。
这引发了两人关于当代政治家形象的感慨。历史上人们熟知的林肯、华盛顿、罗斯福都如同“超级英雄”，但在如今这个社交媒体环境下，任何有识之士都不愿竞选总统。迈克尔直言，在当前的舆论场中，想登上顶峰你就必须在社交媒体上表现得极其尖酸，用最反智的言论去煽动迎合受众；本则引用了经典动画《南方公园》（South Park）2004 年的隐喻——选民最终只能在“洗肠器与屎三明治（a douche and a turd sandwich）”之间做选择。
---
### [40:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2438s) 美联储究竟有多重要？“金融男的星座学”
两人接着讨论了宏观圈对美联储（Fed）的反应。Joe Weisenthal 援引美银（Bank of America）的一份报告称，市场对凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）言论的反应就像“面对信誉危机的新兴市场”——收益率曲线变陡、美股下挫、美元走软。宏观分析师们对其新闻发布会大为恼火，批评他不打算频繁发声、甚至放弃前瞻指引（Forward Guidance），认为他反复无常且过于政治化。
然而，本提出了一个长期持有的异端观点：**美联储实际上只有 5% 的时间真正重要**。
- 美联储只在陷入危机扮演“最后贷款人”（Lender of Last Resort）的那 5% 的关键时刻起决定性作用；
- 剩下的 95% 时间里，整套宏观预测分析不过是“中年金融男的星座学”（astrology for middle-aged men/finance bros）；
- 美联储对经济和通胀的点阵图预测从来就没准过，在资产泡沫形成时从不提前预警，总是事后姗姗来迟收拾残局；
- 加息或降息 25 个基点在长远大局中其实无关痛痒，但在金融界却被过度神化。
迈克尔虽同意美联储在危机时刻的行动“比什么都重要”，但依然指出美联储对利率的引导和预期管理确实在现实中持续影响着各类借贷成本与实体经济，无法彻底将利率的影响抛在脑后。
---
### [42:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2562s) 经济学版“许愿柳枝”与居高不下的房贷利率
受电影剧情的启发，本设计了一个黑色幽默的经济学思想实验——“经济学版的许愿柳枝/猴爪（One Wish Willow for the Economy）”，折断柳枝许愿，代价往往超出预期：
1. **愿望一**：“我希望 30 年期房贷利率能重回 3%。”
- *代价*：“成交！送你一场史诗级大衰退，好好享受吧。”
2. **愿望二**：“我希望改善贫富差距与收入不平等。”
- *代价*：“成交！送你一场全球大流行病，外加 9% 的恶性通胀和暴跌 80% 的资产，人人痛苦不堪。”
3. **愿望三**：“我希望房价大幅下跌，让房子变便宜。”
- *代价*：“成交！再来一次次贷全球金融危机，房价确实跌了，但银行根本不会再给你批贷款。”
谈到电影，两人顺便分享了重温经典电影的体验，不仅重温了《The Rewatchables》播客，还提到了像二刷《第六感》（The Sixth Sense）那样，第二次观影会带着全新视角去寻找各种精心埋藏的彩蛋（Easter eggs）。
随后话题自然切入现实中的房地产与利率困局。目前美国 30 年期房贷利率在微降后仍徘徊在 6.8% 至 7% 左右。回顾 2022 年秋季房贷利率首次突破 6% 时，市场普遍以为这只是暂时的，过一两年就会降回来。迈克尔回忆道，当时他们就坚定告诫听众：**千万不要试图根据利率去预测或择时房产市场（Don't time the housing market based on rates）**。如今四年过去了，高利率让大量买家彻底被挤出市场（priced out）；部分当年寄希望于浮动利率抵押贷款（ARM）想随后转贷（refinance）的人，如今也被长期高息牢牢套住。
最后，本展示了国债收益率曲线图（Treasury yield curve），对比当下与 12 个月前的形态变化，重点指出变化最剧烈的正是“收益率曲线的中腹”（the belly of the curve）。面对迈克尔的插科打诨（“给非金融单身汉听众解释下什么是中腹”），本解释称所谓的“腹部”通常指 2 年期到 7 年期、10 年期之间的中段到期品种，当这个区间的收益率出现剧烈位移时，往往蕴含着固定收益市场对未来经济走势的最直接定价。
### [46:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2763s) 收益率曲线的真正影响与中年代谢危机
两人继续讨论收益率曲线的形态。本·卡尔森指出，如果把当前的收益率曲线拿给一个刚上“经济学101”的学生看，对方一定会觉得“这看起来很正常，收益率曲线本来就该长成这样”。本对那些宣称利率上升会导致政府债务危机的观点嗤之以鼻，认为过度担忧财政危机的人完全抓错了重点；利率飙升真正产生重大负面冲击的领域是房贷利率，这也是他在博客中反复强调的核心痛点——高企的房贷利率对普通人的杀伤力远大于宏观层面的政府赤字和国债争论。
随后，迈克尔·巴特尼克把收益率曲线的“腹部”（Belly）巧妙地歪楼引申到了自己的啤酒肚上。迈克尔自嘲自己的身材如今一塌糊涂，前几天穿了一件 Tommy John 的紧身款上衣，结果妻子罗宾（Robin）看他的眼神充满了嫌弃，直接质问他穿的究竟是什么、怎么把肚子上的肉全挤成了一团。本笑着调侃他赶紧再把私人健身教练请回来，迈克尔则连连感叹自己现在的身材管理彻底“失控了”。
### [47:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2825s) 纽约的“反乌托邦”午餐与多引擎快艇的消费狂热
迈克尔分享了自己最近在纽约市经历的一个宛如“反乌托邦电影”般的场景。他每周四会进城一天，行程安排得极其紧凑，通常只能快速买杯奶昔当午餐。曼哈顿公园对面有一家极其火爆的轻食店 Pura Vida Miami，店内弥漫着浓烈的香氛，迈克尔形容那感觉就像是“午餐版的 Abercrombie & Fitch”。当迈克尔前去取提前预订的奶昔时，赫然看到店门前挤着足足25名头戴自行车头盔的外卖骑手，都在排队等着给客户配送一份售价高达28美元的沙拉。迈克尔感叹，如果外星人降落地球，或者让七年前的自己看到这幅画面，一定会觉得这个世界完全疯了。本则提到塞斯·罗根（Seth Rogen）与基努·里维斯（Keanu Reeves）出演的电影《好运》（*Good Fortune*），里面就专门讽刺了满大街 DoorDash 骑手扎堆等外卖的荒诞现实。
与此同时，这种畸形的消费繁荣在富人圈层更为夸张。《华尔街日报》报道了当下游艇圈对“多台外挂引擎”的狂热追求。许多在迈阿密买船的富豪要求在船尾一口气装上四台外挂发动机。这些大马力引擎的输出功率在200到600匹马力之间，单台价格在2万至7万美元不等。这种极度昂贵的消费需求帮助游艇制造业成功抵御了经济放缓的冲击，表现远好于房车（RV）等其他大件非必需消费品。对于为什么需要如此澎湃的动力，船主们的回答竟然是“必须以人类所能达到的最快速度冲到钓鱼点”。本联想到密歇根湖上的钓鱼船，吐槽它们就像高速公路上的福特 F-250 皮卡一样鲁莽狂奔，纯粹是为了抢在别人前头霸占钓点，归根结底就是“富人们有的是钱，想买就买”。
- 游艇多引擎趋势：每台外挂引擎功率达 200–600 马力，售价 20,000–70,000 美元，单艇安装多达四台。
- 曼哈顿轻食消费：Pura Vida 单份沙拉价格高达 28 美元，门外聚集数十名外卖配送员。
### [49:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2977s) GLP-1 减肥药的爆发前景与个人坦白
话题转向了颠覆医药与消费市场的减肥药物。《巴伦周刊》（*Barron's*）的封面报道指出，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）将2035年全球 GLP-1 药物的销售预测从1500亿美元大幅上调至1900亿美元，这仅包含了糖尿病和肥胖症两大适应症。该预测意味着到2035年，GLP-1 在美国肥胖人群中的渗透率将达到30%，而去年这一数字仅为6%。迈克尔对目前仅有6%的肥胖人群在使用该药感到极其震惊。两人探讨了普及率较低的原因，本推测许多年长的“婴儿潮一代”医生观念保守，依然将这类药物视为非正统的“巫术”并拒绝开具处方，行业需要等待年轻一代医生全面接班才会迎来大规模处方爆发。
本强调全社会不应该对使用减肥药抱有病耻感（stigma）或道德评判。迈克尔随即坦白自己也很想尝试微量注射（Microdosing）来减轻体重。本全力支持他去尝试，还开玩笑调侃迈克尔本来就有肠易激综合征（IBS），再多点副作用也没差。迈克尔坦言自己在饮食控制上就像个毫无自制力的孩子，而本指出 GLP-1 真正神奇的地方正在于它能重塑大脑的进食意志力，这正是迈克尔目前最需要的“神仙愿望”。
- 摩根士丹利预测调整：2035年 GLP-1 销售额预期从 1500 亿美元提高至 1900 亿美元。
- 渗透率数据：美国肥胖人口用药渗透率预计从去年的 6% 提升至2035年的 30%。
### [51:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3105s) Sam Altman 的 AI 家庭播客与重拾手工劳动的快乐
迈克尔提到 OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）发的一条推文。奥尔特曼称赞了一个“很酷的 ChatGPT 应用场景”：将全家人的日程表和孩子的兴趣输入 AI，让它每天早晨在送孩子上学的车程中自动生成一段定制播客，播报下午的足球赛、即将到来的生日派对和新闻。风投机构 Buwa Capital 随即严肃地转发回击道：“在未来几年里，你必须拼尽全力去捍卫你的人性。他们会试图说服你放弃人与人之间的真实连接，放弃去真正地活着。这将是你一生中最重要的一场战役。”迈克尔对该回应深表赞同，痛斥奥尔特曼等硅谷科技精英极其荒谬，已经完全脱离了真实的人类生活，“我绝不可能把我孩子的日程表做成什么狗屁播客”。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Tech Disconnect vs Physical Reality
accDescr: 硅谷科技精英的AI抽象生活与现实中手工劳动的真实快乐之间的对比流程
subgraph TechWorld["硅谷精英的AI愿景"]
A["家庭日程与小孩兴趣"] --> B["ChatGPT 自动生成播客"]
B --> C["上学路上机器代劳沟通"]
C --> D["丧失人际连接与真实生活感"]
end
subgraph RealWorld["现实生活与手工劳动"]
E["后院陈旧秋千架"] --> F["亲自动手：电锯与铁锤"]
F --> G["父子协作砸碎木料"]
G --> H["多巴胺释放与身心充实"]
end
```
本由此感叹，科技圈大佬往往像是一个“假装成人类的机器人”，空有高智商却毫无生活常识。他分享了自己上周六的经历：家里后院有一套使用了十年的木质秋千滑梯组合，如今木头已经腐烂发霉。邻居拆除类似设施时花钱请专业团队半小时拉走，但本决定趁着孩子们刚从夏令营回来，带着儿子乔治戴上手套、抄起锤子和小电锯亲自动手拆除。父子俩把木架砸得粉碎，度过了一段无比畅快的时光。本联想到经典电影《办公空间》（*Office Space*）中的主角彼得·吉本斯（Peter Gibbons），在离开格子间转行做建筑工人后反而获得了快乐。本提出疑问：在未来 AI 统治一切的世界里，那些保留了身体劳作能力、能亲手干体力活的人，会不会反而是最幸福的人？
### [54:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3274s) 拖延症与强迫症：未拆封的海报与行动力差距
由亲手拆秋千的话题展开，迈克尔和本对比了两人截然相反的行为习惯与性格缺陷。迈克尔承认自己有着严重的拖延症，总是任由未解决的琐事无限期搁置——例如家里一个自搬进去11个月以来就一直插着电源并不停发出怪声的 Alexa 设备，他始终没有去处理；而挂在他录播室背景墙上的那些装饰画海报，自从去年九月底搬家后就一直被原封不动地裹在气泡袋里。
相比之下，本则有着类似于强迫症（OCD）的急躁执行力。本表示只要自己手头有一件待办事项没做完，他就会像戴了马眼罩一样死盯着目标，非得立刻解决不可，甚至经常因此惹恼妻子。迈克尔则感叹自己宁愿拥有本这种强迫症式的极高行动力，也不想继续陷在拖延琐碎事务的泥潭里。
### [55:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3305s) 家务外包的艺术与充气桨板的挫折
迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）分享了一段关于家庭琐事的搞笑插曲。公司里多才多艺的理财顾问特雷弗（Trevor）不仅精通财务，还是一名摄影师，动手能力极强。上周特雷弗主动来迈克尔家帮忙，迈克尔立刻给他列了一整张待办清单（punch list）。特雷弗手脚麻利地帮他在办公室精准挂好了五幅画，但在特雷弗忙碌期间，迈克尔本打算去水上玩，试图用电动气泵给妻子罗宾（Robin）买的充气桨板（inflatable paddle board）充气。结果迈克尔怎么也搞不懂那个需要特定角度旋转锁定的充气气阀，折腾得满头大汗依然进不去气，最后只能狼狈地跑回屋里求助：“特雷弗，我向上帝发誓，你能帮我往这个大气球里打点气吗？”
本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）调侃道，那种气阀一旦摸清卡扣结构其实很容易锁定，同时笑称：“我真不敢相信你居然让另一个男人去你办公室帮你挂画。”迈克尔连忙自嘲辩解，这绝不是自己不会挂画，而是妻子罗宾根本不放心让他动手，他坚信这就是专业“外包”的价值所在。
---
### [56:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3398s) Robinhood 智能代理交易：自律工具还是改参数陷阱？
两人转向金融科技领域的一则重磅动态：Robinhood 首席执行官弗拉德·特内夫（Vlad Tenev）在最新的财报电话会中透露，已有超过 10 万名客户开设了智能代理交易账户（agentic trading accounts），即通过 AI 代理自主执行交易策略。本认为这非常类似于之前的体育博彩 ETF（sports betting ETF），散户交易的核心动力其实是寻找刺激与乐趣，大家在交易账户里往往有赚有赔，并没有真正指望击败市场。
迈克尔则提出了不同看法。他认为，虽然 AI 代理交易不太可能带来超额阿尔法（alpha），但对于大部分依靠情绪交易的散户来说，强制引入算法规则和纪律，其长期表现绝对会远远好于纯粹的个人主观判断。本反驳称，这种模式的可持续性值得怀疑：投资者不可能真正做到“设定后就不管”，反而会陷入无休止地与 AI 纠缠和微调的怪圈——今天改改规则，明天换换提示词。无论如何，能够在短期内吸引 10 万名用户尝试 AI 代理交易，规模已经相当可观。
---
### [57:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3462s) 加密货币的冷清现实：巨额赎回与无人喝彩的冷漠期
加密货币近期呈现出不同寻常的疲软走势。Duality Research 发布的一份研报显示，自比特币在去年 10 月见顶以来，比特币 ETF 的累计资金流出在峰值时达到了 104 亿美元。尤为引人注目的是，其中 93 亿美元（占总流出量的近 90%）都集中发生在过去短短两个月的集中回撤阶段（5 月至 7 月的大跌）。虽然近期 30 天流动资金终于重新转正，出现了一定程度的抛售筹码出清（capitulation），但比特币价格却完全没有跟随纳斯达克及软件股的反弹而回暖。
迈克尔提到，他们最近与灰度（Grayscale）人士交流时探讨了比特币为何未能跟上次轮风险偏好回暖。此前很多人把比特币当成高贝塔的软件科技股来看待，在下行期被一同惩罚；但当软件股大幅反弹时，比特币却几乎原地踏步。从各自 ETF 触顶以来的回撤幅度来看，以太坊下跌超过 62%，比特币也依然下跌了 50%，双双沦为“死钱”（dead money）。本指出，加密市场当前最危险的信号在于**极度的冷漠与漠视（apathy）**：在过去几轮熊市中，怀疑者们往往会在暴跌时落井下石、疯狂冷嘲热讽（dunking on Bitcoin），但现在市场上甚至连冷嘲热讽的声音都消失了，因为根本无人关心。迈克尔坦言，自己正是在这种无人问津的冷清氛围中，昨天逆势买入了一点点。
---
### [59:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3562s) 私募信贷暗流涌动：古根海姆被查与现代版《黑道家族》
长期风平浪静的私募信贷（private credit）领域突然爆出丑闻。《华尔街日报》报道，洛杉矶道奇队（Los Angeles Dodgers）老板、TWG Global 掌门人马克·沃尔特（Mark Walter）旗下的商业帝国正面临联邦调查。起因是其资产管理机构古根海姆投资公司（Guggenheim Investments）遭遇内部举报，质疑其与关联保险公司的收入确认方式。曼哈顿联邦检察官办公室与美国证券交易委员会（SEC）迅速介入，目前正重点调查一笔高达约 160 亿美元的私募信贷贷款——这笔资金借给了与沃尔特相关的实体，经由第三方机构周转后，最终竟挂在了他自己拥有的保险公司资产负债表上。监管机构正全力查明此举是否涉嫌违规与欺诈。
本和迈克尔点评道，私募信贷结构复杂、缺乏公开流动性且极其深奥，如果现代黑帮剧《黑道家族》（The Sopranos）拍新季，黑帮分子肯定会利用私募信贷基金来洗钱和进行敲诈勒索，因为这种不透明的生态是金融掩护的绝佳场所。此外，迈克尔还提到了《金融时报》披露的另一则案例：著名私募管理机构 Blue Owl 在 2022 年与瑞银（UBS）合作推出了一只专注于科技领域的私募信贷基金，募集的资金中至少有 60% 来自瑞银财富管理的客户，且绝大部分集中在亚洲。这揭示了一个普通投资者往往忽视的盲点：在投资此类基金时，你必须审视共同出资的有限合伙人（LPs）到底是谁。尽管 Blue Owl 最新财报表现平稳，但其股价自高点仍大跌了约 60%，市场对此依然反应冷淡。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Guggenheim Private Credit Flow Investigation
accDescr: Diagram illustrating the flow of $16 billion in private credit loans involving Mark Walter entities under SEC investigation.
subgraph Origin["资金与借贷发起"]
A["马克·沃尔特 / TWG Global 相关实体"] -->|"申请并获得借款"| B["私募信贷市场（约160亿美元贷款）"]
end
subgraph Routing["中间通道"]
B -->|"穿透周转转移"| C["第三方中介实体"]
end
subgraph Destination["终点与监管介入"]
C -->|"资产被记入账簿"| D["沃尔特名下控制的保险公司"]
E["曼哈顿联邦检方 & SEC"] -.->|"调查是否构成金融欺诈"| C
E -.->|"调查资金链真实目的"| D
end
```
---
### [01:02:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3750s) 苹果业绩逆势狂飙与对 Siri 的无情吐槽
苹果公司公布了亮眼的 iPhone 财务数据。过去数年间，iPhone 的收入增长一直处于缺乏爆发力的停滞状态，但在最近三个季度中，其营收同比增速分别达到了 23%、22% 和 22%，刚刚创下了历史最强劲的 6 月单季度纪录。
然而迈克尔从消费者角度毫不留情地吐槽：虽然自己已经用上了最新的高端 iPhone，但在日常体验中完全感受不到任何划时代的变化，体验乏善可陈。本反驳道：“你口袋里装的是一台真正的微型超级计算机，你居然还在抱怨。”迈克尔坦言，手机本身很不错，但语音助手 Siri 的表现依然让人忍无可忍，他甚至像著名体育名嘴麦德·道格·卢梭（Mad Dog Russo）那样抓狂狂吼：“拜托，赶紧把 Siri 修好，让它变得好用点吧！”迈克尔甚至期待未来苹果干脆放弃 Siri，直接在底层全面集成 Claude 这类成熟的高级 AI 智能体。
---
### [01:03:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3810s) 刺破社交媒体叙事：爆满的航班与真实的繁荣
本对充斥在社交媒体上的经济悲观论调进行了强力反驳。官方数据显示，7 月 23 日创下了商业航空史上有史以来最繁忙的一天。目前网络舆论普遍充斥着一种叙事，坚称当前的经济繁荣完全是“虚假的”，认为复苏呈现极端失衡的“K型”（K-shaped），所有的消费繁荣都只是少数富豪制造的幻象，而年轻人则深陷高房价与生活成本压力中痛苦不堪。
本用自己最近在芝加哥街头的实地观察驳斥了这种言论：
- 芝加哥各处的餐厅与酒吧里挤满了大量正处于入门级职位的年轻人，大家在一起谈笑风生、饮酒聚会，展现出极强的线下消费活力；
- 商业客运航班座无虚席，主题公园人满为患，城市餐饮与娱乐场所全面排队爆满；
- 本强调，如果你依然坚信现实经济是一场脆弱的虚假骗局，那说明你已经被社交媒体的信息茧房和负面情绪完全吞噬，脱离了真实世界的生动面貌。
### [01:04:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3861s) 影院复苏与《蜘蛛侠》争议：超级英雄电影真的该落幕了吗？
Ben 坦白承认自己在电影市场预测上犯了有史以来最大的错误，而 Michael 则是对的——尽管传记电影引发了关于主角生平争议的讨论，但迈克尔·杰克逊的传记片依然展现出了作为影史顶级流行巨星的恐怖号召力。Ben 表示，此前通过《痴迷》（Obsession）和《奥德赛》（The Odyssey）重拾了对大银幕的信心，但看到新一部《蜘蛛侠》再次统治票房甚至冲击影史最高纪录时，他对电影工业的人性信仰又破灭了。在 Ben 看来，超级英雄题材早已让人审美疲劳，好莱坞居然在靠“第 11 部蜘蛛侠电影”来拯救市场，充斥着老套的记忆消除、平行宇宙三代同堂和满屏幕的 CGI 特效，根本算不上真正的电影。
Michael 对 Ben 的悲观嗤之以鼻，强烈反驳道：“我爱蜘蛛侠，这完全没有任何问题！”他指出，这部电影在口碑和商业上取得了双重成功，观众并不是拒绝超级英雄题材本身，而是抛弃质量低劣的烂片并热烈拥抱优秀制作。面对 Ben “谁还需要另一部蜘蛛侠”的抱怨，Michael 毫不客气地回呛道：“不喜欢看你就别看！”两人随后还就历代蜘蛛侠作品数量展开了争论。Ben 坚称算上托比·马奎尔（Tobey Maguire）、安德鲁·加菲尔德（Andrew Garfield）以及《蜘蛛侠：平行宇宙》（Spider-Verse）动画，这绝对已经是第 11 或 12 部作品了。Ben 还回忆起托比·马奎尔在《蜘蛛侠 3》中那段堪称灾难性的黑化街头尬舞与转拐杖桥段，直言当年自己在影院直接笑出声，并认为该系列本该在那一刻彻底画上句号。
- 观众对主流大片的态度验证了内容质量的分水岭：市场会无情淘汰平庸的超英快餐，但对制作精良的现象级爆款依旧买账。
- Ben 认为好莱坞过度依赖单一超级英雄 IP 的重启与叠加，是对传统电影叙事与创意的消耗；Michael 则坚持只要观众喜爱、能带动全行业复苏，商业爆款的存在就无可厚非。
---
### [01:07:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4026s) 影史级票房周末与“怀旧大牛市”：续集、重启与 90 年代滤镜
Michael 引用电影分析师 Eric Davis 的数据宣告院线迎来了影史级别的超级周末：新片首周末在北美本土斩获了高达 3.6 亿美元的创纪录票房，全球累计票房迅速跨越 10 亿美元门槛，而与此同时《奥德赛》等影片同样票房坚挺。院线狂欢的背后，是好莱坞正在全速倒向的“怀旧经济学”。谈及近期里克·莫拉尼斯（Rick Moranis）在退隐多年后惊喜现身《太空炮弹》（Spaceballs）相关活动，两人感叹影视界在透支完超级英雄热潮后，正在像追逐电子游戏改编一样，过度榨取老牌经典 IP 的怀旧红利。
这种怀旧狂潮带来了诸多充满争议的项目规划：
- **《小鬼当家》（Home Alone）重启构想**：传闻麦考利·卡尔金（Macaulay Culkin）可能回归饰演父亲角色。Michael 预测如果卡尔金真以父亲身份出演新版，全球票房甚至能轻松冲上 20 亿美元；Ben 虽吐槽系列早被拍烂且原班父母演员均已离世，却也承认自己绝对会买单。
- **经典重启潮**：迈克尔·B·乔丹（Michael B. Jordan）正在推进经典偷盗电影《天罗地网》（The Thomas Crown Affair）的新一轮翻拍；Paramount+ 则宣布预订由艾莉西亚·席薇史东（Alicia Silverstone）主演的《独领风骚》（Clueless）续集剧集。Ben 忍不住吐槽当年电影里女主角最终与保罗·路德饰演的前继兄走到一起的情节，回想起来宛如某种怪异的情色片桥段。
- **怀旧大牛市（Bull Market in Nostalgia）**：团队成员 Chart Kid Matt 的博客数据显示，Google Trends 上关于“1990 年代”、“黑胶唱片”、“手提收录机”以及“现场活动”的搜索热度全部呈现右上方飙升态势。
围绕 90 年代文化的复兴，Ben 提到近期陪女儿重温经典浪漫喜剧（Rom-com），发现 90 年代的穿搭和审美完全经得起时间的检验，丝毫没有 70、80 年代那种充斥着药物狂躁感的夸张发型与诡异服饰。两人还探讨了浪漫喜剧题材的断代问题，回忆起威尔·史密斯在 2005 年主演的《全民情圣》（Hitch），感叹如今好莱坞已极少出产高质量浪漫喜剧，唯有近期西德妮·斯威尼（Sydney Sweeney）与格伦·鲍威尔（Glen Powell）搭档的作品稍显亮眼。
---
### [01:10:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4257s) 场外碎碎念：生病夸张症与出门赶火车的家庭混乱
话题转向两人的日常生活琐事。Michael 提起自己病愈后与同事 Chris 聊天，Chris 斩钉截铁地为他辩护，称相识多年来 Michael 满打满算也就病过三四次，绝非体弱多病之人，这与 Ben 平日里嘲笑他像“病弱年轻版西奥多·罗斯福”形成了鲜明对比。Ben 毫不留情地当面拆台，直言这是因为 Chris 根本不长心，Michael 实际上小病不断，更关键在于他生病时的表现极其“戏剧化”——每次身体抱恙都要夸大其词地宣称自己“在床上整整躺了 36 个小时，连小拇指都动弹不得”。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: 晨间赶火车的家庭危机演变
accDescr: 展示 Michael 早晨出门赶火车时从时间紧张演变为家庭争吵的连锁反应流程图。
subgraph MorningRush ["出门前的混乱"]
A["赶早班火车（目标时刻 08:04）"] --> B["全家进入紧急状态"]
B --> C["Robin 准备大包小包 / 找水瓶与钥匙"]
end
subgraph CarRideConflict ["车内的尴尬火药桶"]
C --> D["两人驱车争分夺秒赶往车站"]
D --> E["Michael 试图播放上周播客中的古龙水调侃片段"]
E --> F["妻子 Robin 觉得毫不有趣且倍感冒犯"]
end
F --> G["气氛瞬间升级为车内激烈争吵"]
```
随后 Michael 分享了上周赶早班火车时的家庭名场面。他坦言每次和妻子 Robin 出门，家里都会瞬间陷入最高紧急动员状态：大包小包堆积如山，水杯找不齐，车钥匙频频失踪。为了在驱车赶火车的路上缓解紧绷气氛，Michael 异想天开地试图在车里给妻子播放上期播客中自己调侃香水/古龙水的切片，本以为妻子会觉得幽默可爱，不料 Robin 根本不买账。眼看火车发车时间临近 8 点 04 分，原本就神经紧绷的两人在车里爆发了一场互吼的大争吵，原本温馨的解压尝试彻底演变成了一场混乱的赶车危机。
### [01:12:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4353s) 听众反馈与古龙香水回忆录
迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）分享了一段生活插曲：他曾将节目片段放给某人听，结果对方直截了当地吐槽道：“我的天，闭嘴吧，赶紧说重点，别啰嗦了！”本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）笑着附和，承认当时确实废话很多。不过，迈克尔上期为儿子求推荐古龙香水后，收到了大量听众的来信反馈。本从中挑选了几款自己曾经用过的经典款：有听众提到 90 年代曾经出过一款真正的迈克尔·乔丹（Michael Jordan）联名古龙水，本回忆起那是他的初恋女友在圣诞节送给他的礼物；迈克尔打趣说那味道肯定糟糕透顶。
随后两人聊到了另一款学生时代的经典——拉夫·劳伦（Ralph Lauren）的 Polo 蓝（Blue Polo）。本记得自己在高中或大学时就用过这款带有银色瓶盖的蓝色香水，迈克尔也补充说 Polo 曾经出过好几个版本。迈克尔提到一个有趣的现象：香水这种东西简直能用一辈子，他自己至今还留着 2004 年的古龙水瓶子。虽然也有听众建议可以先让孩子用 Axe 身体喷雾入门，但本依然坚持认为，从 Polo 蓝开始是个相当稳妥的选择。
---
### [01:13:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4412s) 生活小事：万能的 WD-40 与被数字化淘汰的碎纸机推销员
本分享了最近遇到的两件琐碎却令人深思的小事。第一件发生在自家门廊，门轴每次开关都发出刺耳的吱吱声，令人烦躁。于是他找来一瓶 WD-40 喷雾，往合页上一喷，噪音立刻奇迹般地消失了。这让他感慨万千：WD-40 大概是几十上百年前发明的，在现代工业品出现之前，古人面对生活中这些烦人的杂音只能硬生生忍着，而现在的产品却能如此轻松地解决痛点，“WD-40 能这么有效简直是个奇迹”。
第二件事发生在他的独立办公室。作为共享办公空间的一员，经常有推销员敲门。前一天进来一名男子询问：“请问你们有碎纸需求吗？我是来自西密歇根碎纸公司（West Michigan Shredding Company）的。”本还没开口，对方就自嘲地猜道：“让我猜猜，你们现在全都数字化了，对吧？”在得知本既没有纸质文件要碎、也没有名片可拿后，对方只能无奈离开。本感叹传统纸质粉碎业务在数字化时代日渐式微，推销员显然已经对被拒绝习以为常。这让他联想起儿时的一位玩伴——那名玩伴的父亲是一名私家侦探，经常让孩子们把装满保密材料的箱子搬到工业碎纸机前，坐在那里亲眼监督纸张彻底被粉碎。
迈克尔对“私家侦探”这个职业感到惊奇，认为这种角色本该像电影《我为玛丽狂》（There's Something About Mary）里的帕特·希利（Pat Healy）一样成为大银幕上的经典形象。本解释说，现实中的私家侦探生活其实非常普通甚至无聊，那位父亲日常接得最多的单子就是跟踪离婚官司中的夫妻，调查是否存在婚外情，远没有小说和电影里描写的那么惊心动魄。
---
### [01:15:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4508s) 影视与图书推荐：诺兰的《奥德赛》、克里斯托弗·诺兰的片场魔力与《信条》争论
进入每周推荐环节，本率先分享了自己去影院观看克里斯托弗·诺兰（Christopher Nolan）执导的巨作《奥德赛》（The Odyssey）的震撼体验。走出影院时，他整个人被彻底折服，直呼“太不可思议了（Holy shit）”。本特别提到，虽然很多人热议独眼巨人（Cyclops）的桥段，但在杜比影厅（Dolby Cinema）那种座椅随音效强烈震动的沉浸式环境下，特洛伊木马（Trojan horse）的场景才堪称影史级的永恒经典。
本随后提到了《GQ》杂志上关于这部电影幕后制作的重磅深度专访。迈克尔调侃本就是《GQ》的标准受众画像——注重身材、热爱跑步、讲究穿搭、热衷时尚与电影。本提到，这部电影在社会层面上引发了极高的讨论度：
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Christopher Nolan Production Ethos
accDescr: Diagram illustrating Christopher Nolan's film set culture and its impact on audience and crew.
subgraph Culture["诺兰的片场文化"]
A["极致的技术挑战\n(如绝壁快速搭建 Technocrane 吊臂平台)"] --> B["独特的受虐式崇拜与忠诚\n(剧组甘愿放弃更轻松高薪的工作)"]
end
subgraph Impact["行业与观众反响"]
B --> C["好莱坞绝无仅有的工业号召力"]
C --> D["观影社交话题度引爆\n(特洛伊木马与独眼巨人实拍技术热议)"]
end
```
- **片场的自愿受虐狂精神**：马特·达蒙（Matt Damon）在片场看到诺兰的团队以惊人速度在悬崖边搭建可供升降镜头吊臂（Technocrane）运作的平台。副导演对惊叹不已的达蒙表示，这里的每一个人都能在其他剧组干着更轻松的活儿拿更高的报酬，但大家都选择留在这里，只为了做前所未有且真正酷的事。
- **《信条》（Tenet）的评价分歧**：迈克尔承认自己因为当年口碑两极分化（许多人抱怨台词听不清、故事难以理解）而一直抵触看《信条》，但最近在播客《The Big Picture》听到肖恩·芬内西（Sean Fennessey）、阿曼达·多宾斯（Amanda Dobbins）与克里斯·瑞安（Chris Ryan）将其排在诺兰电影前列，让他动了补片的念头；本则坦言《信条》确实不对自己的胃口。
---
### [01:17:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4651s) 剧集杂谈：《诚实诊所》、梦工厂内幕、《决战宇宙》与《龙之家族》
本接着分享了他近期补完的流媒体剧集和书籍：
1. **《诚实诊所》（Shrinking）第二季与第三季**：本最初对第一季评价不高，甚至疑惑哈里森·福特（Harrison Ford）为何会接这样一部平庸之作。但剧集后劲十足，越往后越精彩。本盛赞年过八旬的哈里森·福特依然能在喜剧中展现出惊人的演技锋芒，尤其是第三季中福特饰演的角色面临帕金森病症状，与现实中长期与帕金森病抗争的迈克尔·J·福克斯（Michael J. Fox）同台飙戏，探讨垂暮之年的衰老与所剩无几的生命，令人动容。
2. **好莱坞商业传记《企图称王的人》（The Men Who Would Be King）**：该书由妮可·拉波特（Nicole LaPorte）所著，是迈克尔此前极力推荐给本的作品。书中记录了斯皮尔伯格（Steven Spielberg）、大卫·格芬（David Geffen）与杰弗瑞·卡森伯格（Jeffrey Katzenberg）创立梦工厂（DreamWorks）的幕后秘辛。本津津有味地回顾了书中的诸多逸事，例如主创们最初曾误判《拯救大兵瑞恩》（Saving Private Ryan）会票房扑街；罗素·克劳（Russell Crowe）在拍摄《角斗士》（Gladiator）时与人赛跑输了却怪罪沙滩地面；以及梦工厂早在互联网泡沫时期就试图早于 Netflix 推出在线流媒体服务的超前尝试。
3. **《决战宇宙》（Masters of the Universe）**：虽然本上周曾狠狠吐槽过这部作品，但因为孩子们想看，他不得不陪着重看了三遍。他改口承认作为一部儿童电影它非常合格，片中偶尔还有一些成年人才能听懂的幽默包袱，拿当年的旧版“希曼（He-Man）”的名字和滑稽服饰自嘲。迈克尔的儿子洛根（Logan）甚至因此决定万圣节要装扮成希曼。
4. **《龙之家族》（House of the Dragon）与美股再创新高**：迈克尔高度赞赏了雷妮拉（Rhaenyra Targaryen）演员的精湛演技，但本坦言本季剧情有些后劲不足，庞杂混乱的新角色让他眼花缭乱。迈克尔则自嘲犯了个大蠢事：一位听众来信提醒后他才发现，自己日常看剧离不开字幕，唯独 HBO 平台的字幕不知何故被关掉了，导致他整个这一季都是在没字幕的状态下一头雾水地看完全片。节目的最后，两位主持人在收尾时再次感叹道，尽管市场面对了层出不穷的宏观冲击，美股大盘竟然又顽强地刷新了历史新高，其强韧的生命力实在令人惊叹。
### [01:20:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4818s) 后视镜偏差与投资的真正难度
回望过去十年的美股大牛市，迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）和本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）不禁发出感叹：“这实在让人难以置信。”迈克尔半开玩笑地感慨，如果十年前自己能预知未来会发生什么就好了。当本询问如果真能预知未来他会采取什么不同的行动时，迈克尔坦言，自己其实只需要死抱住纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF（QQQ），并且“随时随地、极其激进地逢低扫货所有资产”。
然而两人随即达成共识：即便站在拥有后见之明的今天，这条路在当时也绝非易事。过去这十年里所经历的暴跌、宏观动荡和不确定性，没有任何一步是轻松走过来的，而且面向未来同样不会轻松。本打趣地发表了一个“大胆预测”：在接下来的 30 年里，我们终究还是会再次迎来衰退——这种回撤与波折注定是逃不掉的常态。
节目在轻松幽默的氛围中走向尾声。迈克尔提醒听众可以通过邮箱向他们发送个人邮件，并保证会亲自回复。由于本期涵盖了从半导体暴跌、宏观经济到娱乐八卦的海量重磅话题，节目时长远超以往，两人向制作团队表达了诚挚感谢，并以标志性的口号向大家道别。
- 迈克尔坦白自己在后见之明下的理想策略：“我只要拿着 QQQ，然后随时随地激进买入所有资产就行了。”
- 本一语道破投资的本质与艰难：“哪怕有事后诸葛亮的视角，这事也从不容易。不仅过去不容易，未来也绝不会轻松。”
- 听众互动邮箱为 `animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com`，承诺提供真人一对一回复。
## Notable quotes
> [09:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=548s) 你不明白，当你亏掉 50% 时，水里全闻到血腥味的鲨鱼已经围上来了，你已经彻底完了。 — Ben Carlson
> [13:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=817s) 一个优秀对冲基金经理一生中最完美的爆仓次数是且仅是一次。 — John Arnold
> [13:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=817s) ‘情境意识’的故事，本质上是华尔街的一个古老教训——它被每一代人痛苦地学会，然后又被下一代人迅速忘得一干二净。 — Rob Copeland
> [19:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1179s) 在一周内就能经历从自命不凡的天才沦为彻底的蠢蛋。 — Ben Carlson
> [24:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1454s) 你们难道不知道 30 年期国债收益率都到 5.3% 了吗？你们在干什么？ — Ben Carlson
> [24:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1454s) 在投资世界里，看空论调总是听起来更深刻、更聪明，而持看涨立场的人往往被视作愚蠢的乐观派。 — Michael Batnick
> [31:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=1909s) 生存是第一要义，永远不要让自己陷入被迫卖出的绝境。 — Michael Batnick
> [42:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=2562s) 千万不要试图根据利率去预测或择时房产市场。 — Michael Batnick
> [51:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=3105s) 在未来几年里，你必须拼尽全力去捍卫你的人性。他们会试图说服你放弃人与人之间的真实连接，放弃去真正地活着。这将是你一生中最重要的一场战役。 — Buwa Capital
> [01:20:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE&t=4818s) 哪怕有事后诸葛亮的视角，这事也从不容易。不仅过去不容易，未来也绝不会轻松。 — Ben Carlson
## Mentioned
Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson, YCharts, Situational Awareness, Leopold Aschenbrenner, OpenAI, Sam Altman, Anthropic, Citadel, Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), Warren Buffett, David Einhorn, Bill Ackman, Goldman Sachs, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Truth Social, Kevin Warsh, Robinhood, Guggenheim Investments, Blue Owl, Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey, Shrinking, House of the Dragon
## Video description
On episode 476 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: a crazy month in the stock market, Situational Awareness, leverage always gets you, the semiconductor crash, 60/40 will never die, the behavior gap lives, One Wish Willow for the economy, a theory about the Fed, the economy is still booming, apathy for Bitcoin, the biggest movie weekend ever and much more.
This episode is sponsored by YCharts. To get your copy of Top 10 Visuals, and receive 20% off your first YCharts Professional subscription through Animal Spirits. Visit https://go.ycharts.com/animal-spirits (Offer valid for new customers only.)
► 00:00 - YCharts Ad
► 00:52 - Intro
► 03:36 - Situational Awareness
► 19:39 - Stock Market
► 28:37 - Investor Behavior
► 40:35 - The Economy
► 51:42 - AI
► 56:35 - Prediction Markets
► 57:39 - Crypto
► 59:11 - Private Markets
► 1:02:27 - Apple
► 1:03:27 - Travel
► 1:04:27 - Entertainment
► 1:13:32 - Storytime
► 1:15:08 - Recommendations
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here:
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The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers.
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[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeG1DECnFXE)
Source quotes
[9:08] Ben Carlson: 你不明白，当你亏掉 50% 时，水里全闻到血腥味的鲨鱼已经围上来了，你已经彻底完了。
[13:37] John Arnold: 一个优秀对冲基金经理一生中最完美的爆仓次数是且仅是一次。
[13:37] Rob Copeland: ‘情境意识’的故事，本质上是华尔街的一个古老教训——它被每一代人痛苦地学会，然后又被下一代人迅速忘得一干二净。
[19:39] Ben Carlson: 在一周内就能经历从自命不凡的天才沦为彻底的蠢蛋。
[24:14] Ben Carlson: 你们难道不知道 30 年期国债收益率都到 5.3% 了吗？你们在干什么？
[24:14] Michael Batnick: 在投资世界里，看空论调总是听起来更深刻、更聪明，而持看涨立场的人往往被视作愚蠢的乐观派。
[31:49] Michael Batnick: 生存是第一要义，永远不要让自己陷入被迫卖出的绝境。
[42:42] Michael Batnick: 千万不要试图根据利率去预测或择时房产市场。
[51:45] Buwa Capital: 在未来几年里，你必须拼尽全力去捍卫你的人性。他们会试图说服你放弃人与人之间的真实连接，放弃去真正地活着。这将是你一生中最重要的一场战役。
[80:18] Ben Carlson: 哪怕有事后诸葛亮的视角，这事也从不容易。不仅过去不容易，未来也绝不会轻松。
Source quotes
[5:00] The perfect number of blowups for a hedge fund manager is one.
[15:14] Rob Copeland: The story of situational awareness is in some way an old Wall Street lesson learned by every generation and then forgotten by the next.
[15:14] Michael Batnick: The market is like an ocean and eventually washes everybody away.
[20:43] Ben Carlson: Don't you know the 30-year bond is at 5.3%?!
[33:06] The degenerate bull market is in shambles while the legitimate bull market is reaching new all-time highs. How could you not love to see that?
[51:42] Michael Batnick: I'm not turning my child's calendar into a podcast.
Original transcript
[0:04] Today's animal spirits is brought to you
[0:06] by Y Charts. When the markets feel
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[0:40] Click the link in the show notes to
[0:41] connect with the Y Charts team. Get your
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[0:46] off your first Y Charts professional
[0:48] subscription through Animal Spirits.
[0:50] Offer valid for new customers only.
[0:53] Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael
[0:54] and Ben. This is going to be a long
[0:57] episode. We've got uh 40 pages in the
[1:00] dock, which is on the high side. I feel
[1:03] like last show was a month and a half
[1:05] ago.
[1:06] >> A lot has happened.
[1:08] >> A lot has happened.
[1:09] >> A lot a lot has happened uh in the
[1:11] markets, outside the markets.
[1:14] Spider-Man, holy [ __ ] We'll get to that
[1:16] later in the show.
[1:19] Lot of ins and outs, a lot of what have
[1:21] you. All right. Uh let's start with the
[1:23] the stock market.
[1:25] July was a wild month. Would you say
[1:29] then that July was the most fun,
[1:32] fascinating, interesting market month
[1:35] that we've had in
[1:38] I don't know. Pick a time. Couple of
[1:40] years. I mean, it's been a minute. It's
[1:41] been This is This is a good one.
[1:43] >> I'm having fun. We've We've had some
[1:45] exciting markets this decade. This
[1:48] decade has just been fantastic for stock
[1:50] market entertainment value. The last two
[1:54] like um notable months were not that
[1:57] much fun. It was March when the war
[2:02] started. Definitely not fun.
[2:04] >> And then liberation day probably
[2:05] >> prior to that was April 2025. Also
[2:08] definitely not fun.
[2:10] >> Yeah. Yeah, you're right. The stock
[2:12] market it it just is more entertaining
[2:13] than it was in the past. And I don't
[2:15] think you could convince me otherwise
[2:16] because the speed at which stuff happens
[2:18] now and the amount of sheer money moving
[2:21] around and we're also in a technological
[2:23] innovation boom and yeah there's there's
[2:27] a lot going on and here's what we got
[2:28] here
[2:30] but
[2:30] >> we got go ahead.
[2:31] >> The S&P 500 for the month was what down
[2:34] 10 basis points or something. It's like
[2:35] if you looked at it and you lived in a
[2:37] cave you'd go ah boring month.
[2:41] >> Fair. No, not fair because nobody does
[2:44] that. So, completely not fair. Um, all
[2:46] right. So, in the last week alone, we
[2:48] had
[2:48] >> there are some people who are just DIY
[2:50] investing it and forget it and they're
[2:52] not paying attention.
[2:53] >> Nobody who's listening to this podcast
[2:55] is not paying attention.
[2:56] >> That's true. I'm just saying there are
[2:58] those people do exist.
[2:59] >> Sure. Fine. Okay. Um,
[3:01] >> they're not as entertained as us, but
[3:02] they're probably happier.
[3:05] >> I'm very happy. I'm having a great time.
[3:07] It's been seven weeks since the Knicks
[3:09] won the finals. I'm still riding high.
[3:10] I'm having a great time, Ben. Okay. So,
[3:12] in the last week alone, we had
[3:13] >> You have a whole closet full of Nicks
[3:15] gear now because that's literally all
[3:16] you wear.
[3:17] >> You know what's funny? This morning, so
[3:19] I've got So, I've got this is my
[3:20] favorite Nick shirt in New York nowhere.
[3:22] Can't see it. Well, I'll lift it up. Not
[3:24] that anybody cares, but like this is a
[3:25] good one. There's a real good one. I
[3:27] said to Robin this morning, "Hey,
[3:28] where's my Nick shirt?" And she
[3:30] literally said, "Are you joking?
[3:32] Which Nick shirt? What are you talking
[3:34] about?" Right? It's
[3:35] >> in my new one. All right. Anyway, um so
[3:37] we got Apple reported earnings,
[3:41] Amazon reported a blowout numbers,
[3:43] Microsoft reported blowout numbers, uh
[3:46] Facebook fell and then recovered, and we
[3:48] got a semiconductor blowup led by the
[3:51] story of the week and maybe the story of
[3:52] the year, a hedge fund called,
[3:55] unironically named situational
[3:58] awareness.
[3:58] >> I can't believe that's the name. I I
[4:00] seriously cannot believe that's the name
[4:01] of the hedge fund. It's too It's too
[4:02] perfect. Michael Lewis couldn't have
[4:04] written this any better. This kid the
[4:06] just he looks like central casting of a
[4:09] guy who would blow up a hedge fund. Just
[4:11] he's young. It's the AI boom. Like this
[4:13] is seriously Michael Lewis couldn't have
[4:14] written this any better.
[4:16] >> So the story is as such. There's a kid
[4:19] named Leopold Ashen Brener. Leopold grew
[4:22] up in in Europe. Um and he's a wonder
[4:25] kid. Is it wonder?
[4:27] >> Yes.
[4:27] >> Okay. He's a wonder.
[4:30] >> Okay. That's a bizarre word. Does that
[4:32] is that like for young geniuses or what?
[4:35] What? What is that?
[4:36] >> I suppose he is
[4:38] >> he's a young genius.
[4:39] >> Yes. And he's 24 25 years old. Super
[4:42] >> graduated got into Colombia when he was
[4:44] 15. Valadictorian like an IQ of a
[4:48] billion. And unfortunately for him and
[4:50] his investors, he never read a book that
[4:53] needs to be required reading for anybody
[4:54] managing people other people's money.
[4:56] When Genius Failed. When Genius Failed
[5:00] is the story of long-term capital
[5:02] management. And actually, it's funny how
[5:05] this lines up. We have a chart later in
[5:07] the show. By the way, Ben, I listened to
[5:08] our I listened to our uh podcast last
[5:11] week, and I apologize to some of the
[5:13] listeners. This is a very visual heavy
[5:16] show at times more so than others. And I
[5:19] think I take for granted the fact that
[5:20] everybody is watching along with us.
[5:21] They're not. But now uh we are releasing
[5:25] the video on Spotify at 4 a.m. whenever
[5:28] the podcast goes up. So if you are
[5:30] listening but we are referencing a chart
[5:32] that you think would be interesting.
[5:34] Open your phone, take it out and you can
[5:35] look look along with us.
[5:37] >> Look at YouTube. Hey, I just wanted to I
[5:38] just want to give a few things about him
[5:40] personally I think that are worth
[5:41] mentioning.
[5:42] >> Wait, can I finish my thought?
[5:43] >> Yes. I know I I I interrupted myself,
[5:45] but the point that I was making about
[5:46] long-term capital management and the the
[5:48] visual was bespoke has a chart showing
[5:52] they said it's crazy how the situational
[5:54] awareness blowup is right in line with
[5:58] the long-term capital management blowup
[6:00] on the Netscape chat GPT timeline. So,
[6:03] they've been charting this for the past
[6:05] couple of months and it's wild. Yeah, I
[6:08] should I shouldn't say it's wild because
[6:09] >> you can you can make lines fit, but
[6:11] >> yeah, both they're both going up and to
[6:12] the right, but it is interesting that
[6:15] this has happened. So, okay, Ben, back
[6:16] to you. Go say a few things.
[6:17] >> But this the whole thing about when
[6:19] genius fail. The other good one is the
[6:21] smartest guys in the room about Enron.
[6:23] And this the reason that people like
[6:25] this will always get money from people.
[6:26] If you're an intelligent person and
[6:28] you're super smart, people will throw
[6:29] stuff at you. People will give you
[6:30] money. This guy will totally get a
[6:32] second chance. He probably shouldn't at
[6:34] this age. People should probably go,
[6:36] "All right, we're going to give this kid
[6:37] some time." He's 24 years older or 25.
[6:40] He had no professional investing
[6:41] experience when he launched his AI
[6:43] focused firm, Situational Awareness,
[6:44] less than two years ago with a few
[6:45] hundred million dollars. Um, he already
[6:48] manages more money than Bill Aman or Dan
[6:50] Loe. Okay. Um, this is this he got fired
[6:55] from OpenAI for uh letting go of
[6:58] sensitive information. Okay.
[7:00] >> That's neither here nor there. That's
[7:01] whatever. But just the I don't know the
[7:03] fact that he got fired from OpenAI and
[7:05] but he's he's ridiculously smart. He has
[7:07] a high IQ and if you have someone with a
[7:08] high IQ who was a little quirky. He
[7:10] obviously looks very quirky. Some of the
[7:11] videos make him look very quirky. People
[7:13] are going to give him money. He wrote a
[7:14] manifesto that helped him raise the
[7:16] money and that's where he came up with
[7:17] the situational awareness stuff. He's
[7:18] got all these huge investors uh the
[7:20] Collison brothers and people at at Meta
[7:22] and Sam Alman and he's married to the
[7:24] chief of staff at Anthropic and the
[7:26] story just it it kind of this is a truth
[7:29] is stranger than fiction kind of deal.
[7:30] This is my favorite part.
[7:32] >> Wait, why is this truth is stranger than
[7:33] friction?
[7:34] >> Because you could you couldn't this is
[7:36] central. You could not come up with a
[7:37] better character than this if you wanted
[7:39] to make it up. This guy is just a this
[7:41] guy is a perfect character for a young
[7:43] person in the AI boom who blew up a
[7:45] hedge fund, right? The pictures of
[7:47] everything. It's just it's perfect. Um
[7:50] he was getting married in Northern
[7:52] California the day his fund blew up. And
[7:54] this is my favorite part. There would be
[7:56] a pre-wedding collium to discuss ideas
[7:59] in panels and breakout sessions. They
[8:01] were gonna have
[8:02] >> I don't believe I don't believe that.
[8:04] >> Okay. I I kind of do. I don't know. Um
[8:07] >> Hold on. This All right. I
[8:09] >> This is the Wall Street Journal.
[8:11] >> So what? So what?
[8:12] >> Okay.
[8:13] >> So what? What? There was there was
[8:15] breakout sessions at this kid's wedding.
[8:16] Give me a break.
[8:18] >> All right. It's all believable to me.
[8:22] >> That part's believing anything is
[8:24] possible. That sounds But what happened
[8:26] here is totally believable that his fund
[8:29] grew so big, so massively because he
[8:31] made all these great AI bets. He he laid
[8:33] out this 10-year vision for AI and he
[8:35] said, "This is what's going to happen."
[8:36] A lot of people said, "Oh my gosh, this
[8:37] guy is he's like I think Tim Ferrris
[8:39] called him the AI Nostradamus, right?"
[8:41] Which was obviously the kiss of death
[8:42] right there. Uh but he made
[8:45] >> hang on hang on. He [ __ ] nailed it.
[8:51] Like,
[8:52] >> yes, I just said he he he laid it out
[8:54] and he followed it and boom, nailed it.
[8:55] Guess what happened? He put too much
[8:57] leverage on. So, there's a difference
[8:58] between getting the macro thesis right
[9:00] and being a good portfolio manager. This
[9:02] guy is obviously not a good portfolio
[9:03] manager.
[9:04] >> Correct.
[9:05] >> That's the That's the problem. He could
[9:07] This is why I think why someone like
[9:08] this is way more well suited for venture
[9:10] capital where you can't get you can't
[9:12] get margin called in a venture capital
[9:14] investment. The reason he's up so much
[9:16] still and we'll talk about the numbers
[9:17] is because he put money in anthropic
[9:19] early and that that's powered the gains
[9:21] of his fund. So all he had to have was
[9:23] that one good investment in anthropic
[9:25] and all the other blowups that he did
[9:26] cuz he five time leveraged didn't
[9:28] matter.
[9:29] >> But the leverage is the thing as always.
[9:30] This always gets people.
[9:32] >> It's always leverage. It's always
[9:34] >> leverage.
[9:34] >> Um which is why I mentioned he he when
[9:38] genius failed should have been required
[9:39] reading. It's not about how smart you
[9:41] are. You can't blow up a fund. And the
[9:44] only way that you blow up a fund is with
[9:45] leverage. You and I laugh at the um 2x
[9:50] ETFs. Apparent allegedly this kid was
[9:53] running at four times leverage. So $4 of
[9:56] exposure for every dollar that he had
[9:58] >> and this unwind brought the market down
[10:01] with it.
[10:03] >> I to I a lot of people said there's no
[10:04] way that this guy's fund was big enough
[10:06] to bring down the market. I totally
[10:07] believe people were getting ahead of
[10:09] this. There was someone
[10:10] >> might it might it might not just just
[10:12] just be him, but he was part of blowing
[10:17] the names up to the upside.
[10:19] >> Yeah.
[10:19] >> And of course he wasn't he wasn't it
[10:21] because the half a trillion dollars of
[10:24] notional exposure and the doubled ETFs
[10:26] like he was he was part of the story,
[10:27] not the entire story.
[10:28] >> Yeah. But but he his fund marked the
[10:30] bottom for now, right? These stocks all
[10:33] bottom went up hugely after Citadel came
[10:36] in and shorted up. There there's a story
[10:38] about when Genius failed when John
[10:40] Merryweather the really smart guy from
[10:41] Solen Brothers who ran it and it's funny
[10:43] this is the problem with being too smart
[10:45] though is that you get so overconfident
[10:47] in your abilities that you think oh of
[10:48] course I can lever this thing up five
[10:50] times or long-term capital management
[10:52] was way more than that wasn't it 10 or
[10:54] 20 times what was the number of long I
[10:56] can't even remember it was it was way
[10:57] higher because they were doing fixed
[10:58] income arbitrage
[10:59] >> right
[11:00] >> but someone said to Merryweather the guy
[11:02] who ran that fund he said my fund is
[11:04] down 50% but that's okay we still have a
[11:06] few billion dollars And the guy said,
[11:07] "No, no, no. You don't realize you're
[11:09] done 50%. There's sharks in the water
[11:10] now. You're toast. You're you're you're
[11:12] done." And that was the first time he
[11:14] got scared. And that's the thing with
[11:16] intelligence is that you can get so
[11:17] overconfident. That's why the people who
[11:20] are the smartest ones in the world to me
[11:22] have a relatively high IQ, but also have
[11:25] actual situational awareness or like
[11:27] self-awareness and they have common
[11:28] sense. And obviously this this kid maybe
[11:31] he'll figure out someday. He didn't have
[11:33] that yet. Like it's it's it's beyond
[11:36] ironic. This is like Lannis Morset
[11:38] territory of the fact that his fund was
[11:39] named situation awareness. I can't
[11:40] believe it. I just can't believe it.
[11:42] It's too perfect.
[11:43] >> So, a lot of people uh dancing on the
[11:46] graves. I mean, that's just what happens
[11:47] in this world. Not just in the world of
[11:48] finance, but in the world
[11:49] >> because he was getting a lot of
[11:50] accolades, too. So, when that happens on
[11:52] the other side of it, of course, he's
[11:53] going to get stomped on.
[11:54] >> So, I think he was up uh at his peak
[11:57] like 2700% since inception. I mean,
[11:59] absolutely
[12:01] eye watering numbers like the type of
[12:03] numbers that you don't see. So what
[12:05] ended up happening is um Mark Rubenstein
[12:11] has a a great slide.
[12:15] He shows that the assets were up 5x in
[12:17] three months and got in 30 days. So fund
[12:20] assets March 2026
[12:22] >> chart right there
[12:24] >> March 2026 was $9.3 billion. June 2026
[12:29] 20 plus billion dollars. July 2026,
[12:33] $45 billion. This kid was on a heater
[12:37] the likes of which we have really seen
[12:39] before. Then on July 24th, he sends out
[12:41] an investor letter framing the sell off
[12:44] as a buying opportunity.
[12:46] And then by July 30th, just a couple of
[12:48] trading days later, they sold the entire
[12:52] public levered book to Citadel at a 10%
[12:56] discount. Now, there's people saying
[12:58] that all of the gains in the fund came
[12:59] from Enthropic and that all the public
[13:02] stocks went to zero. He was actually
[13:03] underwater. I my my understanding of the
[13:06] situation is is that's not true. In the
[13:08] letter in the letter, he said that they
[13:09] they still have
[13:11] >> now he was he was long all of the AI
[13:13] names and short like the Adobe's of the
[13:15] world. So, it blew up.
[13:17] >> It blew up both ways. Uh the alligator
[13:20] jaws slam. This is why leverage is so is
[13:22] so detrimental because a lot of those
[13:25] stocks are still up a ton from when he
[13:26] bought them, right? SanDisk is still up
[13:29] over a,000% in the last year. If he
[13:32] would have not used leverage and just
[13:33] held these funds, oh shoot, we're we're
[13:35] in a 30% draw down, but we can survive.
[13:37] The thing is when you see the numbers go
[13:39] from 9 billion to 20 to 45 in 3 months,
[13:42] you feel invincible. You feel like
[13:43] nothing can stop you. I'm sure my
[13:45] favorite anecdote from your money in
[13:47] your brain by Jason Swagen, I use it in
[13:48] my book riskreward. I called it what
[13:50] happens when you get gains like this is
[13:52] you get cocaine brain and Jason Zwag
[13:53] said they did these studies on your
[13:54] brain that show that there is no
[13:56] difference between the brain activity of
[13:58] someone who's high on cocaine or
[13:59] morphine and someone who's making money
[14:01] on their investments. It's the same and
[14:03] that with him that's why he took more
[14:05] leverage cuz he needed a bigger hit each
[14:07] time to keep it going. That's why you
[14:10] have to use leverage when you get that
[14:11] size if you want to keep growing at that
[14:12] same rate which obviously there there
[14:15] was no risk management whatsoever.
[14:18] Mark Rubenstein also astutely said the
[14:22] the perfect number of blowups for a
[14:25] hedge fund manager is one.
[14:28] And I think what he means is that
[14:30] everybody needs to get punched in the
[14:32] face really badly one time. Now, if you
[14:34] have two or three blowups, you know,
[14:36] you're come on, no more chances. But
[14:39] everybody gets one mulligan. And this is
[14:41] a bad one. But the fund is still up 80%
[14:45] at least. At least that's what they're
[14:46] that that's what the letter said. Um
[14:50] >> it's funny. Yeah, John Arnold said that
[14:52] too. He said, "My philosophy when I used
[14:53] to hire traders was that the apple
[14:54] number of pass blowups was one."
[14:56] >> Okay.
[14:57] >> So,
[14:57] >> so it's kind of like this, you're right.
[14:59] This is your this is your mulligan. It's
[15:00] funny. My kids and I in the in the
[15:02] driveway, we always do free throw
[15:03] contests
[15:04] >> like best out of five, best out of 10.
[15:05] And I always tell my kids I get one
[15:07] mulligan and they'll miss one. I go,
[15:08] "All right, I get one more. I start on a
[15:10] make, though." So, he can't have that,
[15:13] right? No starting on a make anymore.
[15:14] Here's a great line from Rob Copeland
[15:16] who wrote the book on
[15:18] what did he write the book on?
[15:19] >> He wrote the Ray Dalio book.
[15:21] >> Okay. Uh was it called the fund?
[15:24] >> I can't remember the name of it.
[15:25] >> I think so.
[15:26] >> Uh so Rob wrote in the New York Times,
[15:29] the story of situational awareness is in
[15:31] some way an old Wall Street lesson
[15:33] learned by every generation and then
[15:35] forgotten by the next.
[15:36] >> It's true. It's every
[15:40] >> there's this idea that you can like
[15:41] learn about history by reading books and
[15:44] studying the past and learning from
[15:45] mistakes of others and that's great. I'm
[15:48] sure like 2% of the population can do
[15:49] this. Most people just need to pay their
[15:50] tuition to the market gods by
[15:51] themselves. Everyone needs to find out
[15:53] whether they can be a stock picker like
[15:55] Warren Buffett. Everyone has that itch
[15:56] in them. Can I do it? And then you
[15:58] figure out you can't and then you move
[15:59] on. Like everyone has to try this stuff.
[16:01] I'm going to time the market. I can do
[16:02] it. Everyone has to do this stuff
[16:03] themselves once. And obviously it's the
[16:05] same with big hedge fund managers.
[16:08] I wonder h how much of a lockup there is
[16:11] because some of this is in private
[16:13] money. I haven't read much about that
[16:14] because that you said the numbers. So
[16:16] >> I'm guessing I'm guessing that what's
[16:18] remaining is 95%.
[16:22] Anthropic and whatever private
[16:23] investment he has
[16:24] >> because it says the month-to- date
[16:25] performance was down almost 70% but the
[16:27] year-to- date performance is still up
[16:29] 80%. I think anthropic is up 400% this
[16:31] year. So I'm guessing that's a lot of
[16:32] it. The fact that this for most people
[16:35] the fact that this kid got them into
[16:37] Anthropic was probably worth the
[16:39] investment in the fund.
[16:42] Don't you think in many ways like hey
[16:44] investing in this fund got us got us
[16:46] access to anthropic. That's good enough.
[16:48] >> The investors in this fund like this was
[16:51] a velvet rope type of uh type of hedge
[16:54] fund. You had to be somebody to get in
[16:56] or know somebody to get in. These are
[16:57] not this is not like retail money that's
[16:59] going to demand their money back. Like
[17:00] I'm sure if anything I'm not sure. I
[17:03] would suspect that if his investors were
[17:06] going to demand their money back or give
[17:07] him more, they would probably give more.
[17:11] >> Yeah, he's going to he's going to get a
[17:12] second chance. This is what we do in
[17:14] America. We give people like this a
[17:15] second chance cuz they're smart.
[17:16] >> Well, hold on. But the first chance is
[17:17] not over. Like the fund is the fund
[17:19] didn't wind down. He's still alive.
[17:21] >> I know. But this is the kind of thing
[17:23] that you would think investors would go,
[17:24] "All right, give my money back." But
[17:26] they can't because there's a lot of
[17:27] private investments, right? That's why
[17:28] again, this guy should be a VC investor.
[17:30] He should not be a public market
[17:31] investor.
[17:32] I almost anyway
[17:34] >> I'm willing to I'm willing to say that
[17:35] he's not going to be a successful public
[17:36] market investor if that's his risk man.
[17:38] >> Nobody is.
[17:40] >> What do you mean nobody is?
[17:42] >> There are very few very very few uh name
[17:50] brands in public.
[17:51] >> They all blow up. Every one of them.
[17:52] >> I dude I wrote I wrote this post in 2015
[17:55] I think. like who's the who I did this
[17:58] this silly post where I wrote I I I to I
[18:01] I did like a clip art of every famous
[18:05] finance year, every famous investor by
[18:08] the year that they were born and I put
[18:11] it on a chart of the Dow.
[18:13] >> Oh, that's right. To show when the
[18:15] legendary ones were. That's right. There
[18:16] hasn't been any since. Really? Right.
[18:18] And I showed it by their birth year like
[18:19] and the most recent one was like Einhorn
[18:22] and and Cliff Asnness
[18:24] >> and they were born in the they were born
[18:25] in the 60s
[18:26] >> but Einhorn got his comeuppants too by
[18:29] betting against the tech stocks for
[18:30] years.
[18:30] >> But this is my point like there are no
[18:32] there are very very few
[18:34] >> everyone that we crown eventually that
[18:37] that's why Buffett is so impressive. And
[18:39] the thing is he did use leverage. He
[18:41] used it leverage in the most intelligent
[18:43] way possible though. And how come no one
[18:45] has learned from him? None of these
[18:46] people have learned from him. None of
[18:48] them. It's kind of amazing.
[18:51] >> Well, Einhorn tried to start insurance
[18:53] company. I think uh Aman did it, too.
[18:57] Anyway, um the market the market is like
[18:59] an ocean and eventually washes everybody
[19:01] away.
[19:03] >> My joke a couple weeks ago was that uh
[19:05] you know when the tide recedes, ask me
[19:07] who's been swimming nude. There's a lot
[19:08] of nude beaches in South Korea. How's
[19:10] that?
[19:12] Uh the thing is the market today these
[19:14] days because it moves so fast everyone
[19:17] feels like a genius or an idiot and it
[19:19] can happen in like a week. So I
[19:20] >> never never been to Have you ever been
[19:21] to a naked beach
[19:23] >> in Europe? I think I did. Yeah. I mean
[19:26] it was just a lot of chicks with armpit
[19:27] hair though. So it was
[19:28] >> lot of bush.
[19:30] >> Yeah. No, we we did a when I was in
[19:32] Vienna we went to a water park and uh pe
[19:35] chicks are going topless down the water
[19:36] slides. It's just normal in Europe.
[19:39] It's a thing. Uh so I I wrote this on
[19:41] July 29th. Six out of the seven Mag 7
[19:43] are in sizable draw downs right now. So
[19:45] six out of the seven were down 15% or
[19:47] more and Microsoft is down 30%. These
[19:48] things are getting killed. Two days
[19:50] later and this Apple was at all-time
[19:51] highs. 2 days later Apple was down
[19:53] almost 15%. Microsoft was up almost 20%.
[19:57] Meta was down 10%. Amazon was up 20%.
[19:59] And they've moved more since then. I
[20:00] think Microsoft is 30% off the lows or
[20:02] something. the moves that happen in
[20:04] these stocks now that can make you feel
[20:06] like you pound your chest and be like
[20:07] I'm the smartest investor in the world
[20:09] and then you feel like an absolute
[20:10] dumbass a week later. That's what this
[20:13] market does now. That's what
[20:15] semiconductor stocks people felt again
[20:16] invincible and then they crash in the in
[20:19] an instant and then in one day after
[20:21] Leopold's fund got I don't I guess we're
[20:24] still splitting hairs on whether it's a
[20:25] bailout or not.
[20:27] >> Bailout.
[20:28] >> No,
[20:28] >> got bailed out by by uh
[20:30] >> No, no, no. A bailout is like
[20:32] >> margin call. I think you can I think
[20:34] it's borderline bailout. After that
[20:35] happened,
[20:37] >> SanDisk was up 25. We had these stocks
[20:39] up in one day 15 20 25%.
[20:43] It's really amazing.
[20:43] >> It was not a bailout. I'm sorry. That's
[20:45] like a That's like a a government that's
[20:46] a governmental term. That's like
[20:48] taxpayer term.
[20:50] >> Okay. If Citadel didn't step in, what
[20:51] would have happened?
[20:53] >> What do you mean? They would have got
[20:54] margin called.
[20:57] >> Okay. And that would have cascaded
[20:58] things even more probably, right? I
[21:00] think Citadel stepping in was the thing
[21:01] that really stopped the flow though.
[21:03] >> Yeah, I just think the bailout is a
[21:04] special sort of term.
[21:05] >> I don't I think it's kind of a bailout.
[21:07] Uh what's the thing from Warren Pies
[21:09] here? The Leopold liquidation pushed
[21:10] semiconductor single stock volatility to
[21:12] 75%. This is only the third time has
[21:15] reached this level. The other two
[21:16] instances were March 2020 and April
[21:18] 2025.
[21:21] We're we're we're in a new world of
[21:23] moves and volatility.
[21:25] We just are. Um, so Todd Son has this
[21:28] chart, this table that shows
[21:31] uh the year the gain of the S&P 500 and
[21:36] the top 10 or the top 25 contributions
[21:39] to the year-to- date gain, right? You
[21:41] know what I'm talking about?
[21:42] >> Yeah. And six of the last eight years,
[21:45] I'm sorry, six of the eight years at the
[21:48] top of the list where the top 10 stocks
[21:50] contributed the biggest to the overall
[21:53] index has happened since 2020.
[21:57] >> Wow.
[21:58] >> We are in a we are in a new world.
[22:01] Obviously, historical data points um
[22:05] have been rendered not completely
[22:06] useless, but mostly useless. So the type
[22:09] of data points that I love that I've
[22:10] said a million times on the show are
[22:12] behavioralbased.
[22:14] Okay? So for example, I love stuff like
[22:17] this. Jason Gford tweeted
[22:21] the NASDAQ 100 lurched great word from a
[22:25] threemonth low to the best gain in three
[22:28] months during an uptrend. So to me that
[22:32] sort of data point is human psychology
[22:36] and I don't care if that happens in 2026
[22:39] or 1949
[22:41] like that is human behavior and human
[22:42] behavior is immutable. You would you
[22:44] agree with that?
[22:45] >> Yeah.
[22:46] >> All right. So
[22:47] >> the one constant.
[22:48] >> So uh so Jason says the April 2000
[22:52] signal sucked after 3 months but
[22:54] otherwise
[22:55] otherwise 3 months later it's pretty
[22:58] damn good. positive 86% of the time.
[23:01] Again, the data point is very clear.
[23:02] You're in an uptrend. Stocks are at a
[23:05] three-month low and then they have their
[23:07] best gain in
[23:09] their best gain in 3 months. So, that's
[23:12] like uhoh. So, that's you're in a bull
[23:14] market. You get a shake out, right?
[23:16] Because there's bad news. Uh oh, what's
[23:18] going on? Is it bull market over? And
[23:20] then rip, best game in three months.
[23:22] Everybody back in the boat. and
[23:23] everybody gets back in the boat because
[23:24] the fears were proven to be nothing more
[23:28] than fears.
[23:29] >> So we we are recording this pre-market
[23:31] and on a pre-market basis after
[23:33] everything that's going on, two wars,
[23:36] gas price spike, inflation is sticky,
[23:39] bond long bond yields are rising, hedge
[23:42] fund blowups, software crash, semi
[23:44] crash, new Fed chair that everyone
[23:46] apparently hates. We're going to get to
[23:47] that later. And we're back at all-time
[23:49] highs. And when I poo poo stuff like
[23:51] rising bond yields and government debt
[23:53] crises, maybe I put too much faith in
[23:55] the stock market sometimes, but this is
[23:57] why I don't worry cuz the stock market's
[23:59] not worried. And maybe that's that's
[24:01] naive of me. But when I poo poo all
[24:03] these risks and people say, "Oh, you're
[24:06] blind. Just wait." This is why the stock
[24:08] market doesn't care because corporations
[24:10] are still making money.
[24:14] >> I made this joke on Twitter. I I was
[24:16] walking around the other night and every
[24:18] bar and restaurant as far as I could
[24:19] see. My wife and I went to Chicago and
[24:22] on a Tuesday night we walk around the
[24:24] river. We went to dinner and all the
[24:25] every restaurant is full of people on a
[24:26] Tuesday night. We do the river walk
[24:28] afterwards for a nice little stroll
[24:29] after dinner down to the lake. Every bar
[24:31] is packed with people. And I wanted to
[24:34] just grab somebody by the shoulders and
[24:34] shake them and go, "Don't you know the
[24:36] 30 years at 5.3%. What are you doing,
[24:38] you idiot?"
[24:40] >> Right.
[24:41] >> The 30 years at 5.3% and you're drinking
[24:43] an IPA.
[24:44] You're drinking a $19 You're drinking a
[24:46] $19 cocktail,
[24:47] >> Ben. Uh Josh and I went out to We're at
[24:50] a dinner the other night.
[24:52] >> And
[24:54] somebody was asking us or talking to us
[24:57] about the semiconductor blow up or
[24:58] whatever. And I was like, "Listen, I
[25:01] what do I know? I still think it's like
[25:03] very very early in the story and uh I
[25:06] think that the shortage of computer and
[25:07] all that sort of stuff is a real thing."
[25:09] And and he said to me, he's like, "Yeah,
[25:10] but you're always bullish." Or something
[25:11] like that. He's like I don't know if he
[25:12] said always. He's like, "Yeah, but
[25:13] you're bullish." And I was like, it sort
[25:15] of stopped me in my tracks a little bit.
[25:17] Like, uh, huh? Is that how this person
[25:20] and other think of me as a market
[25:23] commentator? And I feel like I call
[25:25] balls and strikes. The market starts to
[25:27] go lower in a because it's responded to
[25:29] things that are like bad.
[25:30] >> Yeah, you've been
[25:31] >> yes, my I will my views will change
[25:33] alongside the market,
[25:34] >> but the market is so clearly telling you
[25:37] that this is a bull market. to your
[25:39] point, I think we said this last week,
[25:41] like we lost the Mac 7, we lost the
[25:43] semiconductors and the equid is an
[25:44] all-time high and ripping like what how
[25:46] what are you bisharish about?
[25:47] >> Right. When the MAG 7 lost, people go,
[25:49] "Ah, well, it's just semiconductors
[25:50] holding up the market now." Then
[25:51] semiconductors crash and the market's
[25:52] still up. It's like, okay, what's your
[25:55] next thing? But that's it's always been
[25:57] the case though that the bearish
[25:58] argument just sounds smarter and the
[25:59] bulls like you're just a naive idiot.
[26:01] >> Yeah, we sound stupid.
[26:03] >> Right.
[26:05] and at year 18 of a bull market. Just
[26:08] wait.
[26:08] >> I respect risk more than most. I'm I'm
[26:11] terrified when the market falls, right?
[26:13] So, like I don't I don't view myself as
[26:15] uh
[26:16] >> and I I keep saying this is going to end
[26:17] badly. It just is. Everything's end Tom
[26:21] Cruz cocktail. Everything ends badly or
[26:23] it wouldn't end. It is at some point,
[26:25] but enjoy the ride while it's here. Um
[26:28] okay, Golden Are you Are you in on the
[26:31] new Tom Cruz movie, Digger?
[26:33] >> I don't know. I'm uh cautiously
[26:36] pessimistic. I saw the preview. I I have
[26:39] faith in my guy TC, but I don't know,
[26:41] man. I don't know.
[26:43] >> It's a big swing.
[26:44] >> It's a big swing.
[26:47] We'll see. I give him credit for trying
[26:49] something besides a 12th Mission
[26:50] Impossible movie. Uh Goldman Sachs had
[26:53] this uh good piece. I pulled a few good
[26:55] chart. They have really good charts. So,
[26:57] they say tech equity weight is now above
[26:59] tech bubble levels, which some people
[27:01] look at go, "Oh my gosh." But like, duh.
[27:03] This should be way higher. Technology
[27:05] should be a huge part of the market. Of
[27:07] course, should be way higher.
[27:09] >> Yeah, this doesn't this doesn't scare me
[27:10] at all. Technology,
[27:11] >> these companies are way better than All
[27:13] right, we were talking about we were
[27:14] talking about this the other day
[27:16] offline. I think uh 6040 portfolio bonds
[27:18] have just stunk this this decade. I
[27:20] think you talked about this last week
[27:21] like bonds for the last 5 years returns
[27:22] have been you got nothing. Um Golden
[27:26] says they have a rolling three-year 6040
[27:28] portfolio and says balanced portfolios
[27:31] have delivered strong returns in recent
[27:32] years. This is diversification action.
[27:34] Bonds have stunk. Stocks have done well.
[27:37] 60/40 portfolio is up
[27:40] 12 13 14% per year in the last 3 years.
[27:43] It's done really well. That's
[27:45] diversification. That's why anyone who
[27:47] ever says 6040 is dead is trying to say
[27:49] diversification is dead and it's not
[27:50] going to die. Um this is interesting.
[27:53] 10-year rolling real returns inflation
[27:56] adjusted and this is 6040 portfolio and
[27:59] then the world portfolio. I think that's
[28:01] like everything they include like
[28:03] private markets and B like the global
[28:05] they try to build a global portfolio.
[28:08] Look how high this it it looks high but
[28:11] if you look back at I don't know it's
[28:14] not super above median or mean
[28:16] historically
[28:19] >> just eyeballing it. No, it looks
[28:21] >> Yeah. Right. There's been plenty of
[28:22] other times when this has been way
[28:24] higher.
[28:25] >> This is jumps out at you.
[28:28] >> Correct. If you showed this chart to
[28:29] somebody blindly, like not even a market
[28:31] person, just said like just comment on
[28:32] this chart. Is there anything uh that
[28:34] jumps out at you? They would say no.
[28:36] >> Yeah, it's on the uptrend. That's it.
[28:39] >> All right. Uh let's talk more about
[28:41] investor behavior stuff. So great chart
[28:44] from Bloomberg shows the Goldman Sachs
[28:46] basket of retail favorite stocks and
[28:50] this was the worst monthly performance
[28:54] since 2023. How about that? So, what's
[28:57] in there? I don't know for sure because
[28:59] it's proprietary, but I'm guessing
[29:00] Palanteer is in there. And I'm guessing
[29:02] a lot of the Mac 7 names are in there.
[29:05] SanDisk.
[29:06] >> Yeah.
[29:06] >> The funny thing is this used to be
[29:08] Goldman Sachs basket of favorite hedge
[29:10] fund stocks.
[29:12] >> And now it's retail. Remember that's
[29:14] what they used to show. And I'm guessing
[29:15] my guess would be if you took the basket
[29:17] of retail stocks into the basket of
[29:19] hedge fund stocks, they're exactly the
[29:20] same.
[29:21] >> I think you're Yeah, I think you're
[29:23] right. I think you're probably right.
[29:24] All right. So on so Gungeon from the
[29:26] Wall Street Journal tweeted this
[29:30] uh so she tweeted this on Wednesday. So
[29:32] this happened last Tuesday. So retail
[29:35] sold a net $243 million of single stocks
[29:39] yesterday meaning last Tuesday. The
[29:41] largest one-day outflow since the COVID
[29:44] crash. Holy [ __ ]
[29:47] >> So that was the that was the mini
[29:48] capitulation because the next day the
[29:50] market bounced, right?
[29:52] >> I think so. So, I think that was like
[29:53] the Okay, interesting.
[29:56] >> Listen to Apple's earnings call. It's
[29:58] Tim Cook's last one, so I want to
[29:59] listen. They never said anything
[30:00] interesting. They didn't say anything
[30:02] interesting this time either, but I
[30:03] wanted to listen. Um, and they were
[30:05] talking about the strength of the iPhone
[30:07] 17 because of their AI capabilities. And
[30:10] I got to tell you, AI can't do [ __ ] for
[30:12] Apple. You can't do anything. It's still
[30:16] when I talk to text, I know this has
[30:18] been a common gripe of mine, but if I
[30:20] say Nicks, it writes next and I have to
[30:24] say like no Nick Knicks and it literally
[30:26] cannot get it right. I was in uh
[30:31] I was in upstate New York over the
[30:33] weekend. We took Logan to Rookie Day,
[30:36] which is uh he's going to sleep away
[30:37] camp next year, so we spent the day
[30:39] there. So, we dropped him off and I went
[30:41] to Hyde Park, which I've always wanted
[30:43] to visit. Hyde Park is famously the home
[30:46] of FDR
[30:48] and uh there is a Vanderbilt mansion
[30:51] down the road. So we had nothing but
[30:53] time, plenty of time. So we took a drive
[30:56] there. Lovely, by the way. Great time.
[30:58] >> Very historic of you. Well, you know,
[31:00] I'm a big history guy and I took a bunch
[31:03] of pictures and I wanted to send them to
[31:05] my dad and I should be able to say to
[31:07] Apple, "Hey Siri,
[31:11] send all of the pictures from Hide Park
[31:13] to my dad
[31:15] and it can't even do I mean, it can't do
[31:17] it. It should isn't that basic [ __ ]
[31:19] >> It's hard to believe. I had to do
[31:21] anything." my wife. I had to go from
[31:23] Courtney to wife in my phone because I
[31:25] would say call Courtney and it would
[31:27] always call Corey or it would do some
[31:29] other name and I'd say call Courtney and
[31:31] it wouldn't work. So I had to change it
[31:32] to wife. So it just says wife in my
[31:34] phone now cuz I said because that's what
[31:35] that's what it gets.
[31:36] >> It's no better than the automated
[31:38] services that you're like you know when
[31:40] Larry David is yelling at the the incur.
[31:42] >> It really is hard to believe. And guess
[31:44] what? The stock market doesn't care.
[31:47] >> No right.
[31:48] >> We care.
[31:49] >> Um all right let's talk about South
[31:50] Korea. the the Cosby index at one point
[31:54] was up I don't know I think it had
[31:56] doubled for the year and then in five
[31:59] weeks I mean it just it's a
[32:00] semiconductor trade but in five weeks
[32:01] the entire market which is I think the
[32:03] sixth biggest stock market in the world
[32:05] collapsed 40%. And it's still today up
[32:09] almost 50% on the year. So we got a 40%
[32:12] drop in 5 weeks and it's still up 50% on
[32:15] the year.
[32:16] >> Unbelievable. It really is again one of
[32:18] the biggest stock markets in the world.
[32:19] And
[32:19] >> but so that story is interesting. So
[32:22] >> So they got liquidated.
[32:24] >> Yes. I think the number was 3 and a
[32:26] half% of the entire population of South
[32:28] Korea got a margin call.
[32:31] >> Can that be a pretty high number? That's
[32:33] what I read.
[32:34] >> All right. So they have a great chart
[32:35] showing the one day change and then they
[32:36] show individual investors net buy value
[32:38] for Cosby index and then they show
[32:40] foreign investors. So individual
[32:41] investors got liquidated and foreign
[32:43] investors bought the [ __ ] out of the
[32:45] dip.
[32:45] It is, by the way, it's Tuesday morning,
[32:48] 9:38, and the S&P 500 has gapped higher,
[32:52] meaning it opened higher to a new
[32:55] all-time high.
[32:56] >> Ding, ding, ding.
[32:58] >> Meaning the highest the stock market has
[32:59] ever been in the history of uh of
[33:01] mankind.
[33:04] >> Isn't that the these people getting
[33:06] margin called and Leo getting margin
[33:07] called? Like, this is this is the thing
[33:09] as a stock market investor. You just
[33:10] have survival is the key. just never get
[33:14] yourself in the position where you're a
[33:15] forced seller.
[33:17] That's like it sounds so simple and it
[33:19] people just can't help themselves.
[33:21] Ben, one of the things that I've been
[33:23] saying over the last couple of years is
[33:26] um one of the things that people use to
[33:29] dismiss the bull market or cast doubt is
[33:32] all of the degenerate behavior.
[33:36] Oh, look at people buying stocks and
[33:38] leverage and they're buying quantum
[33:39] computing and whatever the next hot
[33:42] thing is. And they use that as a way to
[33:44] dismiss the validity of everything else
[33:46] that's happening in the market. And I
[33:48] understand that impulse, right? It makes
[33:50] sense. Like, oh, there's so much
[33:51] speculation. This is going to end badly
[33:52] and it's going to end soon. I get it.
[33:55] Um, and what I've said to that is,
[33:57] listen, we live in a world of 24/7
[34:00] trading of of hype everything happens
[34:04] with hypers speed with the message
[34:06] boards and people able to colonize on
[34:08] stocks way quicker than they have in the
[34:09] past. Do not let that behavior distract
[34:12] you because that is never going away,
[34:14] >> right?
[34:15] >> That sort of degenerate behavior is with
[34:16] us literally forever unless there is a
[34:19] another great depression. People will
[34:21] continue to speculate. It's it's only
[34:23] accelerating. Robin had said that in the
[34:25] like it's only accelerating the
[34:26] speculation. Okay. So, I really love to
[34:30] see the fact that in this bull market a
[34:33] lot of that behavior is getting punished
[34:35] not just in the double lever
[34:38] semiconductor trade, but all of the meme
[34:40] stocks,
[34:42] all of the we have our our degenerate
[34:45] Dow stocks, which is basically a basket
[34:48] of meme stocks and they got cut in half.
[34:51] So, while the legitimate bull market
[34:54] is reaching new all-time highs, the
[34:56] degenerate bull market is in shambles.
[35:00] >> Yeah.
[35:00] >> How how could you not love to see that?
[35:02] >> Yeah. This is not like the meme stock
[35:04] stuff with GameStop back in the day.
[35:06] That was AMC and GameStop. That was so
[35:09] stupid, right? This is this is different
[35:11] now. People have kind of learned the
[35:13] retail crowd. It's different. All right.
[35:15] This This is interesting. Jeff Attack
[35:18] friend from Morning Star. Behavior gap
[35:19] is alive and well. So the the DRRAM ETF
[35:22] DRAM
[35:23] >> DRAM
[35:24] >> right so he's saying since inception in
[35:26] April it had 26 billion in net assets by
[35:30] the end of July this before the the fall
[35:32] I think the DRM fell 30% or something
[35:35] maybe 30 or 40%.
[35:37] He asked, "How did it get so big so
[35:38] fast?" He said it gathered 26 billion in
[35:41] net inflows over that span, which is
[35:43] kind of crazy.
[35:44] >> But here's the thing. Over that time, it
[35:47] had massive returns. So, it has 26
[35:49] billion in assets. 26 billion came in,
[35:52] but the fund earned 102% return over
[35:55] that time. So, what does that mean?
[35:57] >> What does it mean?
[35:59] >> Average investor lost money in the fund.
[36:03] Investors lost $1.6 billion.
[36:06] in DRAM
[36:08] because they came in so late and then it
[36:10] then it crashed.
[36:12] >> Is there something though? I understand
[36:13] how I understand how like the math
[36:15] works.
[36:18] >> Think about it.
[36:19] >> It's a calculation that makes sense. But
[36:22] is there like something weird in that
[36:23] calculation that like makes it true but
[36:26] also not exactly true?
[36:27] >> Like true but misleading?
[36:29] >> What this tells you is that investors
[36:30] did not take part in those huge gains.
[36:32] They came in. tells you, no, it tells
[36:33] you the average dollar
[36:36] didn't do well.
[36:39] >> It doesn't tell you like the median, the
[36:40] actual median investor's experience.
[36:43] >> Well, that's
[36:43] >> tells you the average dollar,
[36:45] >> right? But it just tells you that look,
[36:47] if you look on the chart, most hold on
[36:50] >> as it peaked.
[36:51] >> But for example, and I don't think this
[36:53] is the case. I'm just using this. If an
[36:55] adviser put this in their model
[36:57] portfolio,
[36:59] now I know it's 26 billion. It's a huge
[37:00] number. So that's not the case. But like
[37:02] I think that some of these sometimes
[37:03] this these data can be factually
[37:05] accurate but not telling the entire
[37:07] story. Like I don't think the average
[37:08] investor in DM lost money
[37:12] could be wrong
[37:13] >> on a dollar basis of course because so
[37:14] much money came in. That's the point.
[37:16] The money flows in. Same thing happened
[37:17] with with ARC. All the money flowed in
[37:19] after the performance had already been
[37:20] good and then it crashed.
[37:22] >> Right.
[37:23] >> We'll see.
[37:24] >> More true. More true than not true.
[37:25] Maybe I'm nitpicking
[37:27] >> a little bit. All right. Uh you
[37:28] mentioned Todd S earlier. This is a
[37:30] crazy chart. Cumulative daily ETF equity
[37:33] flows. And he does it put he puts this
[37:35] out by year going back to 2017. And each
[37:37] year it shows the equity flows
[37:39] throughout the year. And obviously it
[37:40] goes up until the end total flows. And
[37:43] each year it goes up a little bit more
[37:44] and a little bit more and a little bit
[37:45] more. Each year is higher than the next.
[37:47] 2026 is in another stratosphere. Look at
[37:51] this chart. This is insane. It's how 50%
[37:55] higher than it was last year, which was
[37:57] a record. I'm gonna So, we have Todd on
[38:00] TAFF next week. I'm going to talk about
[38:02] this because
[38:05] what can be responsible for this gap?
[38:07] Like obviously DRAM is in here.
[38:12] >> I I'm thinking is part of it
[38:14] >> is it? It's probably it's probably SMH
[38:15] too.
[38:17] >> It's got to be all AI [ __ ]
[38:19] >> I'm guessing it's that's a huge number
[38:21] though that money just keeps flowing
[38:22] into these ETFs. Part of it, again,
[38:24] we've talked is like retirees rolling
[38:26] over the 401ks,
[38:28] right? Maybe going from mutual funds,
[38:29] ETFs. I don't know if that's a big part
[38:31] of it, but
[38:31] >> not at all. Cuz the damn burst, this is
[38:33] like this
[38:34] >> massive, right?
[38:35] >> Yeah,
[38:36] >> it's wild.
[38:40] Um, okay. I uh we spoke about this a
[38:42] couple weeks ago and I guess it's it's I
[38:45] guess it's happening. So CNBC reports
[38:48] Trump Media and Technology Group's new
[38:50] paid data service launched on August
[38:52] 1st, providing faster access to truth
[38:54] social post from President Donald Trump
[38:56] and other top accounts on the platform.
[38:58] Truth API, the new application program
[39:00] interface is designed to give firms a
[39:02] direct licensed real-time feed of the
[39:04] platform's most market moving truths.
[39:06] Interim CEO Kevin McGurt said in a
[39:08] release announcing launch,
[39:12] "Is that legal?
[39:16] I can't believe that they're that
[39:18] they're not even trying to put some sort
[39:19] of positive spin on this and go, "Hey,
[39:20] whatever we earn on this, we're going to
[39:21] give it away to people in need or
[39:23] something." Uh, I don't know.
[39:26] >> By the way, Trump's family is the
[39:27] largest shareholder in Trump Media, the
[39:29] public company that operates Truth
[39:30] Social, obviously. But imagine companies
[39:32] were doing this. Imagine Apple's like,
[39:34] "Hey, uh, Truth Apple or whatever
[39:36] they're going to call it, um, where
[39:38] we're just going to release our earnings
[39:39] a little bit, you know, maybe like five
[39:41] minutes early."
[39:44] You read about these politicians
[39:46] historically and they seem like heroes.
[39:48] Lincoln, Washington, FDR, Teddy
[39:51] Roosevelt
[39:52] and you I just feel like we're just
[39:54] never getting those type of superhero
[39:55] politicians again because they wouldn't
[39:57] if if they came up today, they wouldn't
[39:58] want to be the president.
[40:01] >> And also, you kind of need to be a dick
[40:03] in the social media world to rise to the
[40:05] top. Like, I don't care I don't care uh
[40:09] what party you're you belong to. Like if
[40:11] you're going to galvanize the masses,
[40:14] you have to just say the stupidest [ __ ]
[40:16] that appeals to the dumbest people and
[40:19] unfortunately that is
[40:21] >> South Park called this in 2004 and they
[40:23] had this whole episode about how they
[40:24] were voting for a school mascot and Kyle
[40:27] didn't want to vote because the two
[40:28] options were a douche and a turd
[40:30] sandwich. And I feel like that's just
[40:32] that's where we are. South Park again,
[40:34] they were right. The rest of our life
[40:35] we're gonna be voting between a douche
[40:36] and a turd sandwich.
[40:38] >> All right. I have I have a theory about
[40:39] the Fed that I've talked about for a
[40:40] while. Uh Joel Weisenthal tweeted uh
[40:43] Bank of America says the market's
[40:44] reaction to Kevin Wors resembles an
[40:46] emerging market facing a credibility
[40:47] shock and he talked about how the cur
[40:49] when he talked I mean all the macro
[40:52] people I follow hated his press
[40:54] conference and seem to think that he's
[40:56] he said he's not going to talk as much.
[40:58] He's not going to communicate as much.
[41:00] They didn't he's getting rid of forward
[41:01] for forward guidance. All these people
[41:03] said this is crazy. And so Bank of
[41:04] America said he got a steeper curve.
[41:06] equities went down in a weaker dollar
[41:08] and that's like what you'd see from EM
[41:09] banks. Now the macro people
[41:12] >> probably not great. The macro people are
[41:14] up in arms about this. They they the
[41:16] people I follow do are not big fans of
[41:17] Wars. They don't like his press
[41:18] conferences. They don't like the way he
[41:20] flip-flops on issues. They think he's
[41:21] too political. I have a theory and I
[41:23] think it's going to be put to test that
[41:24] the Fed really only matters like 5% of
[41:26] the time. And it matters when they are
[41:28] the lender of last resort and when we
[41:30] are in a crisis. That's the only time
[41:31] the Fed really matters. the other time.
[41:34] I think it's I think it's basically
[41:36] astrology for middle-aged men that talk
[41:39] about the Fed's forecasts. I think the
[41:41] Fed really honestly besides in a crisis
[41:44] doesn't do much. Their forecasts are
[41:45] always wrong. They never help out like
[41:47] when there's an actual bubble. They
[41:49] always are way too late to the party.
[41:51] Like they they want to come in and
[41:53] rescue after the fact. That's the only
[41:54] thing that the Fed is good for. Am I
[41:56] wrong?
[41:58] >> I don't think so.
[42:00] This may be a test where he he's going
[42:02] to say like we're not going to do this
[42:03] stuff anymore and the macro people are
[42:04] up in arms. They hate it. Yeah. I I
[42:06] still the Fed is astrology for finance
[42:08] bros. I think that's that's what the Fed
[42:10] is. Like they're they're their forecasts
[42:12] are never right. So what? Well, it's a
[42:15] it's a expectation function and blah
[42:17] blah blah. They're never right. Who
[42:19] cares?
[42:19] >> Well, I don't think anybody's I don't
[42:22] know that that's true.
[42:24] What they they they they talk they set
[42:26] guidance to set interest rates. I mean,
[42:27] of it doesn't.
[42:28] >> I just think 25 basis points here or
[42:30] there doesn't matter
[42:32] >> in the grand scheme of things. It's when
[42:34] we need them to really act. That's the
[42:36] only time the Fed matters. That's my All
[42:38] right.
[42:39] >> And when we need them to act, it matters
[42:41] almost more than anything.
[42:42] >> All right. So, I have a little news
[42:44] segment here. Uh I I rewatched
[42:47] Obsession, which I think you did, too. I
[42:48] saw from recommendations. And as I was
[42:49] re-watching again, I I thought, what if
[42:51] you did one wish Willow for the economy?
[42:54] >> I love this.
[42:55] >> Okay. Okay, so I did I did one wish
[42:56] willow for the economy. And so you break
[42:59] it and you go, I wish we had 3% mortgage
[43:02] rates again. And the economy would go,
[43:04] great. Here's a massive recession.
[43:07] Enjoy.
[43:09] Two,
[43:11] I wish income equality would improve.
[43:14] Break it. Fine. Here's a pandemic.
[43:17] Here's 9% inflation. Everyone hates it.
[43:20] >> Stocks fall 80%. You're welcome.
[43:22] >> Yes.
[43:23] >> Three. I I wish home prices would fall.
[43:24] I want lower home prices. Break it.
[43:26] Okay, fine. Here's a global financial
[43:29] crisis. Good luck buying a home that
[43:30] banks won't lend to you anymore. Housing
[43:32] prices are down, though.
[43:34] >> There.
[43:34] >> I love this concept.
[43:35] >> How did I do?
[43:36] >> I love it. I also rewatched rewatchable.
[43:39] I rewatched rewatchables. I rewatched
[43:41] Obsession. Thanks for the rewatchables.
[43:43] Uh what a [ __ ] great movie. Holy
[43:45] [ __ ] So, I rewatched it with Robin and
[43:47] at the end of the movie, she goes, "That
[43:49] was so stupid." And I immediately
[43:50] responded, "You're an idiot." I mean,
[43:52] how do you not like that movie? So, now
[43:54] she listened to The Watchables with me.
[43:55] We listened to it on the way up and she
[43:57] got more into it as the there was so
[43:59] many Easter eggs in that movie.
[44:01] >> So many things that I
[44:02] >> It's fun to watch it again the second
[44:03] time cuz the first time you're just
[44:04] going, "What is going to happen here? Oh
[44:05] my gosh."
[44:06] >> It's very similar to re-watching Six
[44:07] Sense because the first time you are so
[44:10] immersed in what's happening and the
[44:12] second time you see it through a new
[44:13] lens. What a movie. Wow.
[44:15] >> It really is. Yes. I uh Yes. It was just
[44:18] as good of the second time for me too.
[44:19] Um, so I talked about the mortgage rate
[44:21] thing. It's back to down almost 7%. 6.8%
[44:24] last week for the 30-year mortgage when
[44:26] it first
[44:26] >> How does anybody buy a house? How is
[44:28] anybody going to buy a house?
[44:29] >> It first hit 6% in 2020, the fall of
[44:32] 2022 when inflation did. And everyone,
[44:34] including us, thought like, okay, this
[44:35] is shortlived. Like rates will go back
[44:37] down. Just wait a little bit. It'll be
[44:38] like a year or two.
[44:41] >> We did we did not say that.
[44:43] >> Are you sure?
[44:44] >> I'm positive. Not about the rates, I per
[44:45] say. I don't remember what we said about
[44:46] rates, but when people said, "Should I
[44:48] wait to buy a house because I think
[44:49] prices we definitely did not do." You're
[44:51] right. We did not do that. We said, "You
[44:52] do not time the housing market based on
[44:53] rates. Don't try to
[44:55] >> in 2022."
[44:56] >> You're right.
[44:57] >> We said like, "Do not wait
[44:58] >> because imagine people were going to buy
[45:00] a house in 2022." Now, in fairness, a
[45:02] lot of people were just priced out,
[45:03] which which obviously is horrendous.
[45:06] >> It's four years later.
[45:08] >> It's crazy. Again, people have been and
[45:10] I'm sure there were people who bought
[45:11] who did adjustable rate mortgages and
[45:13] said, "Fine, I'll do the adjustment rate
[45:15] mortgage. It'll be a lower monthly
[45:16] payment and then I'll refinance when
[45:18] rates fall."
[45:19] >> Yeah. Well, it's over. Oh, it's almost 5
[45:20] years. By the way, I think this is why I
[45:21] don't really love when you poo poo
[45:23] interest rates because Yeah. the stock
[45:25] market might not be bothered by it.
[45:26] >> So, this is why though. So, I this is
[45:29] good segue to my next one. PE. This is
[45:30] the treasure yield curve. If you showed
[45:32] this treasure yield curve, the current
[45:33] one. So, this is from exhibit A and it
[45:34] shows it now versus 12 months ago. You
[45:37] can see really the changes in the belly
[45:39] of the curve. Boy, that's a that's a
[45:40] really fun thing to say, right? If
[45:42] you're if you're in finance and you say
[45:43] the belly of the curve, that's
[45:44] >> Ben, for our non-virgin listeners, what
[45:46] what is the belly of the curve?
[45:49] >> Uh the belly of the curve is like the
[45:51] middle. So the two to 10, two to seven
[45:53] years, like it's the middle of the
[45:55] curve. And when that that's you say
[45:57] that's the belly, the belly is moving
[45:58] like oh the belly of the curve looks
[45:59] really attractive right now. And if you
[46:01] showed this yield curve to a finance
[46:03] student in Econ 101 and you say, "This
[46:06] is the yield curve. What do you think?"
[46:07] They'd go, "This looks normal. This is
[46:09] the way it should look. This is the way
[46:10] a yield curve should look." And so I
[46:12] agree. I poo poo rising rates for the
[46:14] economy because I don't think it's going
[46:15] to lead to a government debt crisis. I
[46:16] really don't. I think people worry about
[46:18] that are wrong.
[46:20] >> You know,
[46:21] >> you're right. It does impact mortgage
[46:22] rates. That's where that's where the
[46:23] bigger reason is. And I wrote a whole
[46:24] blog post about this saying that yes,
[46:26] the mortgage rates, that's the thing
[46:27] that matters more than like deficits and
[46:28] government debt crises and all this
[46:30] stuff. It's the mortgage rates.
[46:31] >> You know which belly is is not looking
[46:32] attractive? Mine.
[46:33] >> What's that?
[46:34] >> Okay.
[46:34] >> I look terrible. I wore one of my Tommy
[46:37] John shirts the other day. Like the the
[46:38] the the
[46:40] what is it called?
[46:42] Slim fit one. I can't remember what it's
[46:44] called. It's like the tight one. And
[46:46] Robin said she just gave me a look. I'm
[46:48] like
[46:50] >> look of disgust.
[46:51] >> Yeah. She's like, "What are you wear?
[46:52] It's like bunching up your belly. What?
[46:57] Time to call your personal finance or
[46:59] personal trainer again. Come on.
[47:01] >> I'm out of control.
[47:02] >> Do it.
[47:03] >> I'm out of control, Ben.
[47:04] >> Uh
[47:05] >> um. All right. This is this is this is a
[47:08] dystopic scene.
[47:11] I went to get lunch the other day. So,
[47:12] I'm in the city once a day. Uh once a
[47:14] week. I'm in the city on Thursday, and
[47:16] that's my very busy day. I don't have
[47:18] time to uh grab a big meal. So, what do
[47:21] I do? I grab a smoothie.
[47:24] That part of the story is completely
[47:25] irrelevant. Uh, but there's a place
[47:26] called Pura Vita Miami and it's right
[47:29] across the park and you walk in. I think
[47:32] I've said this before and it's like
[47:33] Abberrobi and Fitch for lunch. It just
[47:36] smacks you in the face with a fragrance.
[47:39] It's like it's
[47:40] >> I went to this place last time I was in
[47:41] New York. Got a salad or something.
[47:42] >> Oh, yeah. Okay. All right. Anyway, it's
[47:45] wildly popular. So, I pre-order my
[47:47] smoothie. I go and I pick it up and
[47:50] there's 25 dudes with bike helmets on
[47:53] waiting to deliver people a $28 salad.
[47:57] >> And so
[47:58] >> it was just imagine imagine an alien
[48:03] landing on Earth or even even like us
[48:05] seven years ago were shown this picture
[48:08] and described what was happening. You'd
[48:10] be like you'd be very confused.
[48:12] >> Did you watch did you watch the Good
[48:13] Fortune movie with Seth Rogan and Ka
[48:15] Reeves?
[48:15] >> I have not. Is that an apple? Uh anyway,
[48:19] um
[48:20] >> there's a whole there's a whole thing
[48:21] about this. He's about this thing. All
[48:24] the Door Dash drivers waiting in line
[48:25] for someone. It's Yes. I won't spoil it
[48:28] for you, but it's a whole part of the
[48:29] movie.
[48:29] >> Anyway, it was it was a pretty dark
[48:31] scene.
[48:32] >> All right. On the other side of that, uh
[48:34] the Wall Street Journal, they
[48:36] interviewed these people who just h have
[48:38] to have multiple engines on their boats.
[48:40] And these this is probably more in New
[48:42] York than it is in Michigan, but they
[48:44] interviewed this guy who wanted this big
[48:45] boat in Miami. and he wanted um four
[48:48] boats or four motors on his boat. Okay.
[48:50] And these high horsepower outboards
[48:52] range from 200 to 600 horsepower and
[48:55] cost anywhere from 20,000 to 70,000 per
[48:58] motor. And they said they've helped the
[48:59] boating industry navigate the choppy
[49:00] economy better than others making pricey
[49:02] discretionary goods such as RVs. And the
[49:04] whole point was why do you need this
[49:06] much power on your boat? And it was like
[49:08] listen
[49:09] >> I have to get I have to get to the
[49:10] fishing hole as fast as possible as fast
[49:12] as humanly possible. And my thing as a
[49:15] voter is the fishing boats on the lake,
[49:17] those are like the F 250s on the
[49:20] highway. They just drive with reckless
[49:22] abandon. They they dart across the lake
[49:24] as fast as humanly possible cuz they
[49:26] want to get to those fish when fishing
[49:27] holes for other people. It's hilarious
[49:29] to me that you need that much power for
[49:31] a fishing boat.
[49:33] People have money. They're going to buy
[49:34] it.
[49:35] >> Yeah.
[49:38] Ben, we've been talking about GLP1s and
[49:41] the impact that they're having on the
[49:42] stock market.
[49:44] This is wild. Uh, so this is the cover
[49:48] story in Barons. Morgan Stanley raised
[49:50] its 2035 GLP1 sales prediction from 150
[49:53] billion to 190 billion um from diabetes
[49:56] and obesity alone. That would mean 30%
[49:58] penetration by then amongst obese
[50:00] Americans, up from 6% last year. I'm
[50:03] shocked that only 6% of obese Americans
[50:08] are taking this drug.
[50:11] >> That's very surprising to me.
[50:14] I wonder what the what what percentage
[50:16] of the population is obese
[50:18] 30 to 40%.
[50:21] >> Uh, sure. Sounds right.
[50:23] >> So, there's a massive market for this.
[50:26] I I do wonder if there are a lot of
[50:28] older doctors who aren't quite on board
[50:30] yet with this stuff who kind of go, "No,
[50:32] this is voodoo stuff. We're not doing
[50:34] this." And it's going to take a group of
[50:36] we have to push a lot of the baby boomer
[50:38] doctors out of the way, no offense to
[50:40] them, and get a new younger crop to get
[50:42] these and like really start writing
[50:44] those scripts.
[50:45] >> People have very strong feelings
[50:48] about other people taking
[50:50] weight loss drugs.
[50:52] >> And you you shouldn't this should not be
[50:54] a stigma at all. People should not be
[50:56] ashamed of doing this.
[50:57] >> All right, Ben. I'm coming clean. I want
[50:58] to take it.
[51:00] >> Do it. I don't care. Try it. you already
[51:03] have, you know, irrital bowel syndrome.
[51:06] It's not going to like make any
[51:06] difference.
[51:07] >> That's between us.
[51:08] >> Okay.
[51:11] Uh
[51:13] I mean, I've heard of people trying to
[51:14] like micro do this stuff or take it so
[51:16] they can lose some weight.
[51:17] >> I want I want to m I want to micro dose.
[51:19] >> I go for it. I don't care. It's going to
[51:22] make you healthier. Jump. Give it. If it
[51:24] gives you a jump start, go. But
[51:25] obviously the thing people say is,
[51:27] "Well, if you want it to really work,
[51:28] you have to take it like you can't stop.
[51:30] You have to keep taking it or you have
[51:31] to change your lifestyle.
[51:32] >> See the pro my problem is I am a child.
[51:35] I have no willpower.
[51:37] >> This stuff changes your willpower.
[51:40] >> There's my one wish willow.
[51:42] >> All right, give it a try.
[51:43] >> I wish to not be a disgusting mess. Um,
[51:45] all right. This was a this is a tweet
[51:47] from Sam Sam Alman. Cool use case of
[51:50] chat GBT work I heard last night.
[51:52] Connect your family calendars and
[51:54] explain your kids' interests. every
[51:56] morning for the drive to school. Have it
[51:58] make a podcast that talks about one
[51:59] kid's soccer game that afternoon, one
[52:01] kid's upcoming birthday, some news, etc.
[52:05] So, Bua Capital quote tweeted that and
[52:07] said, "Over the next few years, you are
[52:09] going to have to fight with everything
[52:10] you've got to retrain to retain your
[52:13] humanity. They will try to convince you
[52:15] to give up connecting with each other,
[52:17] to give up truly being alive. It will be
[52:19] the most important fight of your whole
[52:21] life." Now, I love that he said that
[52:23] earnestly, and he's not joking. I mean,
[52:24] obviously Sam's tweet is so absurd. So,
[52:28] so absurd. These people are these people
[52:29] are not people. And I don't want to like
[52:31] I'm not saying like all of San Francisco
[52:33] because not everybody's like that. Not
[52:35] all the tech people are so lost in the
[52:38] sauce. But what the are you talking
[52:40] about? No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm not
[52:44] turning my child's calendar into a
[52:46] podcast.
[52:48] >> Well, this is why I don't really believe
[52:50] any of their dire predictions because
[52:52] they don't understand human. This is
[52:53] like a robot pretending to be a human in
[52:55] a lot of ways. They don't they these are
[52:57] again intelligent people with no sort of
[53:00] It's funny because I was thinking about
[53:01] this the other day about the AI world
[53:02] that we're going to be stepping into. So
[53:04] we had a swing set in our backyard for
[53:05] like 10 years now and it was just the
[53:08] kids don't use it anymore and it's kind
[53:09] of falling apart and the wood is getting
[53:11] moldy and I wanted
[53:12] >> put a data center there.
[53:13] >> Yeah. We're going to do some work for
[53:14] our backyard. So wanted to take it down
[53:15] and my neighbor when he had his taken
[53:17] down a few years ago called a company.
[53:19] They came in like a half hour
[53:22] cut it down. took it out, hauled it
[53:23] away, and we had nothing to do last
[53:25] Saturday because the kids got back from
[53:26] camp. And I said, "George, get some
[53:28] gloves on and grab a hammer. We're going
[53:30] back there. We're going to take it down
[53:31] ourselves." So, we took all these tools.
[53:33] I took a chainsaw and a hammer and we
[53:35] hammered this thing. And George and I
[53:37] took the whole swing set down ourselves.
[53:38] And we broke stuff. And he had the best
[53:40] time of his life hitting stuff.
[53:41] >> I love that.
[53:42] >> And I thought like, do people who work
[53:44] with their hands and do physical
[53:45] activity, are they going to be the
[53:46] happiest people in our new tech overlord
[53:49] world? like Peter Gibbons in office
[53:51] space, did he have it figured out where
[53:52] he was more happy being the construction
[53:54] worker at the end than he was working in
[53:56] front of a desk? And I do wonder that
[53:57] the people who who retain that
[53:59] physicality and that use their hands
[54:01] more, th those are going to be the
[54:02] happiest people in the AI world.
[54:06] Don't you think?
[54:07] >> We all just got to get out there and
[54:08] chop some wood.
[54:10] >> It was so much fun. I we we were my he's
[54:12] my my son is I I felt like he's going to
[54:14] probably hammer my toe or something or
[54:16] and uh we made it out with a unscathed
[54:18] thankfully using chainsaws and hammers.
[54:20] But hey, I got it down. It's done.
[54:22] >> You have a chainsaw?
[54:24] >> It's a very little chainsaw.
[54:26] >> You'll be honest.
[54:27] >> I I have a chainsaw but it's a I mean
[54:28] it's like this big.
[54:31] So on the other end of the spectrum, um
[54:36] I have this personality like defect
[54:39] where I will just let [ __ ] linger
[54:42] unresolved forever like that that Alexa
[54:44] thing that's been plugged in making that
[54:46] sound since I moved in 11 months ago or
[54:48] whatever.
[54:48] >> Yeah. See, I have the OCD thing where if
[54:50] I have a something to do, my it annoys
[54:52] my wife a lot because I have to I I have
[54:54] the blinders and I have to get it done.
[54:55] >> Well, I'd rather be you than me cuz I
[54:57] have the opposite of OCD, whatever that
[54:58] is. So, these posters behind me have
[55:00] been literally in bubble wrap since the
[55:04] end of last September when I moved into
[55:05] this house. And Trevor, one of our
[55:10] multi-talented financial adviserss.
[55:12] Trevor's a photographer. He's a man of
[55:13] many talents. He he and he came over
[55:17] last week and he said, "What do you got?
[55:18] You got some housework for me?" I said,
[55:20] "Do I have a whole punch list for you?"
[55:23] So, he did a great job hanging these
[55:26] these pictures. There's five in between.
[55:28] He really set set me up. While he was
[55:31] doing this, I went outside. We were
[55:32] going to go on the water. Uh when he was
[55:35] done, had some people over. I tried to
[55:37] inflate. Robin got a paddle board. And
[55:40] it's an it's an an inflatable paddle.
[55:43] Paddle. Jeez, I can't say that word.
[55:45] Paddle board. An inflatable patter.
[55:49] I probably should have edited that whole
[55:50] part out, but whatever.
[55:53] So, I have an electric pump and but I
[55:56] [ __ ] you not, it was just it was just a
[55:59] chef's kiss. I couldn't figure out how
[56:01] to get the air into the paddle board.
[56:04] Like the the the screw on it, you had to
[56:07] like push it in at a certain angle. So,
[56:09] I come inside. I'm like, Trevor, I swear
[56:10] to God, dude, could you help me get some
[56:11] air into this balloon?
[56:14] >> I have one of those, too. It works
[56:15] pretty good once you get it out. You It
[56:17] kind of locks on there.
[56:18] >> Not to brag. I figured out eventually,
[56:20] but it was it was giving me a little bit
[56:21] of problems. Okay. This is why you
[56:23] outsource.
[56:25] >> I do. I really do. Um,
[56:28] >> can't believe you let another man in
[56:29] hang pictures in your office.
[56:31] >> No, no, no. Robin wouldn't I I Dude, I
[56:33] can hang a picture.
[56:34] >> Oh, she wouldn't let you.
[56:35] >> She wouldn't let me.
[56:38] >> Um, all right. This is interesting. So
[56:40] Vlad from Robin Hood during their
[56:42] earnings said more than a 100,000
[56:45] customers have opened the Gentic trading
[56:46] accounts.
[56:50] So I think to me this is like the sports
[56:52] betting ETF.
[56:54] The whole point of trading is it's fun,
[56:57] >> right?
[56:57] >> Like am I beating the market in my
[57:00] trading account? No.
[57:02] Like you know you get sometimes you have
[57:05] some good months, some bad months,
[57:06] whatever. Um
[57:07] >> yeah, but don't you think that these
[57:09] traders who do this and implement rules,
[57:11] they're going to do so much better? I
[57:14] mean, there there's not going to be a
[57:14] lot of alpha here, obviously, but
[57:16] they're going to do so much better than
[57:17] they would have using their discretion.
[57:20] >> You're Oh, you're you're absolutely
[57:21] right. I'm not questioning the results.
[57:22] I'm questioning like
[57:24] >> the sustainability of this. Like, are
[57:26] people going to be like
[57:27] >> Are people going to be like, I oh, I use
[57:30] an agentic bot to trade,
[57:32] >> but there's going to be so much
[57:33] tinkering and back and forth with the
[57:35] AI.
[57:36] >> Yeah.
[57:36] >> Let's try this. Let's add this. Let's
[57:38] change this rule. 100,000 people, that
[57:41] that's a lot. All right, let's talk
[57:43] let's talk crypto really fast. So,
[57:45] Duality Research had a really
[57:47] interesting post where he shared that
[57:49] since Bitcoin peaked last October,
[57:52] cumulative ETF outflows have reached
[57:55] $10.4 billion at their maximum, but 9.3
[57:58] billion of that or nearly 90% of the
[58:00] entire draw down in ETF flows occurred
[58:02] during that final two-month stretch
[58:04] alone. So, he he has this great chart
[58:07] that showed the peak, the decline with
[58:09] the with the outflows over a 30-day
[58:10] period. and we really did see see
[58:12] capitulation over the like the I guess
[58:14] the May to to July decline and in fact
[58:18] 30-day flows finally turned positive
[58:20] again. So I thought that was interesting
[58:22] but I also thought what was interesting
[58:24] was the fact that the price has not
[58:26] moved with the software bounce. So we
[58:29] spoke to somebody from Grayscale
[58:30] recently and why is Bitcoin not keeping
[58:32] up in the risk on rally and my
[58:34] explanation was it's software and it's
[58:36] being treated as such. It's being
[58:37] punished like a software stock, but
[58:39] software bounced and Bitcoin did it.
[58:42] >> Yeah, that that's not you want the
[58:44] correlation to break down. So, if you
[58:45] look at just the Bitcoin and Ethereum
[58:48] off the highs from their the uh ETFs,
[58:51] Ethereum's down more than 62%. Bitcoin
[58:54] is still down 50%.
[58:56] And they just haven't they've then
[58:57] they've just kind of been dead money
[59:00] down there.
[59:01] >> It feels dead, huh?
[59:03] >> It always does. Every time it feels
[59:05] better than usual.
[59:06] >> I I I I bought a little bit yesterday.
[59:09] >> Just a little just a little taking a
[59:10] little stand.
[59:11] >> Okay.
[59:15] What? There's negative negativity in
[59:16] private credit now.
[59:17] >> Just complete complete wash out. Apathy.
[59:20] All right. Um
[59:21] >> that's the thing.
[59:22] >> This is interesting.
[59:23] >> You're talk you talked before about um
[59:26] spiking the football on people and like
[59:28] kicking when they're down or whatever.
[59:29] Like that's just something we do and
[59:30] then we build them back up. There is no
[59:32] like
[59:33] there's the apathy thing with Bitcoin.
[59:35] There's no people like dunking on
[59:36] Bitcoin right now. Ah, I see. I told
[59:38] like there was a lot of that in the
[59:39] past. Like I told
[59:40] >> I mean that you're right. It's
[59:42] >> none of that. Not even that even.
[59:44] >> Nobody cares. You're right.
[59:46] Um all right. So there hasn't been any
[59:50] negative news in private credit in a
[59:52] while except for the story that I
[59:54] missed. This is kind of this is kind of
[59:55] nuts. Let me read this lead from the
[59:57] Wall Street Journal.
[59:59] The problems from Mark Walter's
[60:00] sprawling sports and finance empire
[60:02] began with an internal whistleblower
[60:03] complaint. The complaint questioned how
[60:06] Walter's asset management firm
[60:07] Guggenheim Investments booked revenue
[60:10] from dealings with insurance companies
[60:11] and had drawn interest from federal
[60:12] prosecutors by last year. People
[60:15] familiar with the matter said within
[60:16] months the investigation evolved to
[60:18] focus on investments in private credit,
[60:20] a lending business that has boomed on
[60:22] Wall Street in the past decade and a
[60:23] half and which supplied the financial f
[60:26] firepower for Walter's 2012 acquisition
[60:29] of the Los Angeles Dodgers alongside
[60:32] partners. The US Attorney's Office in
[60:35] Manhattan and the Securities and
[60:36] Exchange Commission are now examining
[60:39] how around$16 billion dollars in loans
[60:42] extended to companies tied to Walter or
[60:44] his conglomerate TWWG Global wound up on
[60:47] the books of insurance companies he owns
[60:50] after passing through a third entity.
[60:53] The authorities are trying to determine
[60:54] whether the activity cons constituted
[60:57] fraud.
[61:00] Doesn't it seem like if the Sopranos
[61:01] were out today, they would somehow get
[61:02] into racketeering and moneyaundering
[61:04] through private credit funds?
[61:05] >> 100%.
[61:07] >> Right. Seems like it's so esoteric and
[61:10] hard to understand. It seems like a
[61:11] place where if you wanted to commit
[61:12] fraud, you probably could. That's that's
[61:14] obviously no knowledge of fraud in this
[61:16] case.
[61:17] >> Speaking of that, the actor who played
[61:18] uh Big [ __ ] died.
[61:20] >> Yes. Did you ever watch the show yet?
[61:23] >> I'm like I'm like stuck on the fourth
[61:24] season.
[61:25] >> Okay. That was probably one of the
[61:27] fastest binges I've ever done in my life
[61:30] is The Sopranos.
[61:32] Some point I'm going to do it again as
[61:33] well.
[61:34] >> Uh, one other story that I missed that I
[61:36] thought was kind of interesting. So,
[61:38] Blue Owl, this is from the FT. Blue Owl
[61:41] launched this technology focus fund in
[61:43] 2022
[61:45] after consulting with UBS about creating
[61:47] a vehicle that would be suited to
[61:48] Blank's clients. At least 60% of the
[61:51] money the fund raised came from UBS
[61:53] clients, most of whom were based in
[61:55] Asia. That's an interesting wrinkle to
[61:57] the story.
[61:58] >> Huh?
[61:59] >> Isn't that wild?
[62:00] >> Why is that?
[62:01] >> Now, this wasn't their flagship. I think
[62:03] it was like a couple of billion dollars.
[62:05] But
[62:07] that's something you don't think about
[62:08] when you're investing is
[62:11] who are the other who are the other LPs?
[62:15] Well, institutions that that's a lot of
[62:16] what they look into or they should be.
[62:19] >> Uh anyway, Blue Owl reported earnings
[62:22] this week and uh
[62:24] not terrible.
[62:27] >> Stock market doesn't care. Stock's still
[62:29] down like 60%.
[62:31] >> All right, let's move on to uh so the
[62:35] year-over-year iPhone revenue change.
[62:38] So, the iPhone had been sort of dead is
[62:40] the wrong word. It just hadn't been
[62:41] consistently growing at all for like
[62:43] years and years and years. So, for the
[62:45] last three quarters, the revenue growth
[62:46] grew 23, 22, and 22%.
[62:49] Most uh best June quarter ever. I don't
[62:53] know. I have the iPhone 17. Doesn't do
[62:56] [ __ ]
[62:58] >> What are you talking about? You have a
[62:59] super computer in your pocket. You're
[63:00] complaining about it.
[63:01] >> I'm not complaining about it. I love my
[63:03] phone. What does it do better than the
[63:04] 16?
[63:05] >> Oh, the battery doesn't die. I don't
[63:08] know.
[63:12] I have no idea. And I'm sure there's a
[63:13] thread on Twitter somewhere that tells
[63:14] you all the
[63:15] >> I was about to scream like like Mad Dog
[63:16] Russo like fix Siri just freaking
[63:20] >> what I have.
[63:21] >> Make it better for God's sake.
[63:22] >> Are we gonna get Claude on here someday
[63:25] that's going to just use Claw to do it
[63:27] and not Siri?
[63:30] >> Um
[63:31] all right. Uh people are still
[63:33] traveling. July 26, I'm sorry, July 23rd
[63:36] was the busiest day for commercial air
[63:39] travel ever. I know everyone wants to
[63:42] That's crazy. I know everyone wants to
[63:43] say like everything in the economy is
[63:45] fake and it's all K-shaped and it's only
[63:46] rich people, but
[63:47] >> it's not.
[63:48] >> The planes are full. The restaurants
[63:50] when I was walking around Chicago
[63:51] talking about that all the restaurants
[63:52] and bars were full of young people. And
[63:54] I keep being told how how miserable
[63:56] young people are because of social media
[63:57] and they can't buy a home. That's not
[63:58] what I saw. I saw a bunch of young
[64:00] people who probably have entry- level
[64:02] jobs smiling and drinking and laughing
[64:04] at the bars and the planes are full and
[64:06] the theme parks are full and the bars
[64:08] and restaurants are full. If you still
[64:10] think like the economy is just all fake,
[64:12] then you're not paying attention to
[64:13] what's going on around you. You're too
[64:14] into social media.
[64:16] >> It's so It's so nuts how social media is
[64:21] like a warped fourth dimension.
[64:24] >> Yes. People don't believe their their
[64:26] eyes anymore. They just believe what
[64:27] they see on social media. It's really
[64:30] Okay. I I obviously I was about the
[64:35] wrongest I've ever been about movies and
[64:36] you were right. I I I still can't
[64:38] believe the Michael Jackson movie was so
[64:39] big though. That I I don't know. The
[64:42] child stuff didn't keep people away.
[64:45] >> It's biggest pop star in the history of
[64:47] the world.
[64:48] >> Yeah, but I mean didn't end very great.
[64:50] Okay, so here's the thing. I had my
[64:52] faith in movies restored through
[64:53] obsession and the Odyssey. So I went and
[64:55] saw the Odyssey. I'll save that for
[64:56] recommendations. But I think my faith in
[64:58] humanity has been taken away now that
[65:00] Spider-Man is the biggest movie ever.
[65:01] Because what are we doing here? The 11th
[65:03] Spider-Man movie is going to be the
[65:04] biggest movie ever. I thought we were
[65:05] done with the superhero stuff. This to
[65:07] me
[65:08] >> I don't like it.
[65:11] >> I love Spider-Man and I have no problem
[65:13] with this.
[65:13] >> We just I watched the last Spider-Man
[65:16] all three Spider-Man like do we need
[65:18] another Spider-Man? Come on. Oh, he had
[65:20] his memory everyone had their memory
[65:21] wiped and we're going to do this and
[65:22] it's there's three Spider-Man.
[65:24] >> I don't know why I don't know why you're
[65:25] taking this posture. What do you mean do
[65:26] we need another Spider-Man? It's just
[65:27] it's the biggest movie ever. What are
[65:28] you talking about movies? Let's make
[65:30] movies. This is not a real movie,
[65:32] >> dude. CGI
[65:34] >> [ __ ]
[65:35] It's by all accounts an it's an awesome
[65:38] movie that everybody loves. People
[65:41] reject bad superhero movies
[65:43] >> and people are embracing good What's
[65:45] that?
[65:45] >> I thought we were done with a superhero
[65:47] movie. That's all. I'm sick of them.
[65:50] >> So don't [ __ ] watch it.
[65:52] >> Okay. I'm just saying it it it just
[65:53] pains me a little bit that Spider-Man is
[65:55] going to be the biggest movie of all
[65:56] time. It shouldn't be the 11th
[65:59] Spider-Man.
[66:00] >> It's not the 11th Spider-Man.
[66:02] >> It is. Look it up. It's literally the
[66:03] 11th.
[66:03] >> It's not the Tobin Maguire ones and the
[66:07] Andrew Garfield ones.
[66:09] >> Do you realize how many there have been?
[66:11] It's literally the 11th.
[66:14] I'm looking it up
[66:15] >> where it stands.
[66:16] >> You're mad that people love Spider-Man.
[66:22] >> Okay. If you include the Spiderverse
[66:23] movies 12. Uh,
[66:25] >> have you seen Spider-Man? Have you seen
[66:26] it?
[66:27] >> No. I'm sure I'll watch it someday with
[66:28] my son. I watch all of them when they
[66:29] come on Disney or whatever. But uh and
[66:32] the last one was kind of cute because
[66:33] they brought Toby Mcguire back and
[66:34] Andrew Garfield and
[66:35] >> I actually didn't like the last one. I
[66:36] thought that I didn't I didn't enjoy
[66:37] that. That was too much.
[66:38] >> Um I I actually think the Andrew
[66:39] Garfield ones are my favorite.
[66:41] >> I can't believe Spider-Man wasn't over
[66:42] after number three when Toby Mcguire was
[66:44] dancing down the sidewalk.
[66:45] >> That was
[66:45] >> I literally laughed in the theater.
[66:47] >> That was so cringe.
[66:49] >> He when he's he's tw when he's twirling
[66:51] the uh the cane or something. Okay. So,
[66:53] do you want to like do your uh victory
[66:55] lap up movies because it was like the
[66:57] biggest day ever or something?
[66:59] >> I can't talk about it because I was
[67:00] right. So, I can't
[67:01] >> I'm giving you I'm giving you credit. I
[67:03] said I was wrong. You were right.
[67:06] >> Uh biggest All right. Eric Davis, Brand
[67:10] New Day has secured the biggest opening
[67:11] weekend ever at the domestic box office
[67:13] with $360 million.
[67:15] Uh,
[67:17] I think it's done it's done over a
[67:18] billion dollars already globally. And
[67:22] all the while, The Odyssey is still
[67:25] rocking ass. So, I think it's one of the
[67:27] it was one of the biggest weekends ever
[67:30] for the box office. So, I think it's
[67:32] wonderful. Um, Ben, did you see
[67:36] did you see Rick Morannis was at the
[67:40] Space Balls? There was a Space Balls
[67:42] something at
[67:44] >> that Comic Con? I don't know what that
[67:45] was. First movie he's done in forever.
[67:48] >> That guy was awesome.
[67:49] >> I can't wait.
[67:50] >> We haven't I haven't seen him since
[67:51] Little Giants. Where has he been?
[67:52] >> He retired from acting.
[67:56] >> All right. So, there is We're going to
[67:58] overdo it with the nostalgia stuff. The
[68:00] same way that we overdid it with
[68:01] superheroes and the same way that we're
[68:03] going to overdo it with video game
[68:04] movies.
[68:05] All right. McCaulay Kulkin. And I'm I'm
[68:07] here for this part. McCauley Kulkin is
[68:09] allegedly I think Belly was talking
[68:11] about this or somebody, I can't
[68:13] remember. Um,
[68:16] if McCauley Kulkin makes a new Home
[68:18] Alone, it's going to do $2 billion. It's
[68:21] going to be that could be the biggest
[68:22] movie of all time.
[68:23] >> So, he's the dad, obviously.
[68:25] >> Yeah.
[68:25] >> Okay.
[68:27] >> Yeah.
[68:28] >> Are you in for that or are you mad cuz
[68:30] there's there's it's going to be the
[68:31] It's the fifth Home Alone, Ben.
[68:32] >> I mean, it's not No, there's been like
[68:33] eight of them. It's not going to be any
[68:34] good, but I'll watch it.
[68:35] >> Oh, it'll be great.
[68:36] >> You think so?
[68:37] >> Yeah, I do.
[68:38] >> Katherine O'Hara's not around anymore. I
[68:40] don't know. So is the dad. The dad both
[68:42] the parents are dead now.
[68:44] classic that guy. Um, all right. Uh,
[68:47] Michael B. Jordan is doing the Thomas
[68:50] Crown Affair reboot.
[68:52] >> Okay. I love the Thomas Crown Affair,
[68:54] but you can't say like that's an
[68:55] untouchable movie by any means because
[68:56] it's already been redone once.
[68:57] >> Definitely. Definitely not untouchable.
[68:59] >> Uh,
[69:00] >> I like I like he movies. I'll be around
[69:01] for that.
[69:02] >> But leaning more into nostalgia. So,
[69:03] Clueless sequel series with Alicia
[69:05] Silverstone is ordered at Paramount
[69:06] Plus.
[69:07] >> Okay, come on. No one wants that.
[69:10] >> I mean, I don't want this. But there is
[69:13] there is truly a bull market and a
[69:14] nostalgia.
[69:15] >> I still can't believe that she ends up
[69:17] with her stepbrother in the movie. I
[69:18] still am not over that to this day. Paul
[69:20] Rudd is her stepbrother and she at the
[69:22] end.
[69:23] >> That's like a very elevated porn movie
[69:26] if you think about it.
[69:27] >> Very weird.
[69:28] >> So Chart Kid Matt did uh wrote a blog
[69:31] post that there's a bull market
[69:32] nostalgia and you look at Google trends
[69:34] for things like um live events and vinyl
[69:36] and boom box and 1990s and they are all
[69:39] up and to the right. People are yearning
[69:41] for yester year.
[69:43] >> The funny thing is I've been watching a
[69:44] lot of the 90s movies with my daughter
[69:45] as we go through our romcoms. A lot of
[69:47] the stuff from the 90s aged pretty well
[69:50] actually. Like the like a lot of the
[69:51] fashion choices they made would still be
[69:53] okay. There's not any that you go, "Oh
[69:54] my god, what were people thinking back
[69:56] then?" It's really not that bad. Not
[69:58] like the 70s and 80s we go, "Oh, holy
[70:00] cow, that hair or that." You know, it's
[70:02] not as bad as
[70:02] >> Well, that was the cocaine fueled
[70:04] >> true
[70:05] >> mania. Well, let me ask you this. when I
[70:07] know you're a big romcom guy and I I've
[70:09] learned to love romcoms in my later
[70:10] years, but I was thinking about the
[70:14] rewatchables did Hitch and I never saw
[70:16] Hitch. You know why? I know it was a
[70:18] huge movie. I remember when it came out.
[70:19] Um
[70:20] >> I love Hitch.
[70:21] >> Is Hitch the movie where Will Smith gets
[70:23] like his face blown up by a big
[70:24] >> Yeah.
[70:25] >> Okay. It came out in 2005. I was 20
[70:28] years old. I'm not watching a romcom by
[70:29] myself with my boys at when I'm 20 years
[70:31] old.
[70:33] >> Yeah, that's true. You know, I I did
[70:34] watch a lot of them with my my mom. I
[70:36] feel like um I've always just been a
[70:38] sucker for romcoms. Like I love Hitch. I
[70:40] guess that's probably what right when I
[70:41] started dating my wife, too. So, we
[70:43] probably saw that at the theater. Um
[70:45] I've always loved romcoms for whatever
[70:47] reason. They don't make good ones
[70:48] anymore.
[70:50] >> Um
[70:51] >> watch the classics.
[70:52] >> I thought I thought the one with Cydney
[70:53] Sweeney and Glenn Powell was right.
[70:55] >> Yeah, Glenn Powell should be doing a lot
[70:56] more of those.
[70:57] >> All right. Um Ben, I I've so I was
[70:59] talking to Chris last week after my
[71:02] illness.
[71:03] And Chris said, word for word, you're
[71:06] never like that. You're never a sick
[71:08] person. I can probably think of three or
[71:10] four times you've been sick that I know
[71:11] you. Quite the juxosition between you
[71:14] accusing me of being uh a sickly person
[71:17] like a young Teddy Roosevelt.
[71:19] >> That's because Chris just doesn't pay
[71:20] attention apparently. Uh you're sick all
[71:22] the time.
[71:23] >> I'm sick regular.
[71:25] >> Okay. See, when you get sick though, you
[71:28] get really really sick.
[71:30] >> Well, I I'm I get very traumatic. Yeah,
[71:32] you're you're like I was in bed for 36
[71:34] hours straight. It didn't move a pinky.
[71:39] >> That is true. That is true. Um, so
[71:42] speaking of things that happened last
[71:44] week,
[71:46] we I had to catch a train early in the
[71:49] morning. And this happens, I know this
[71:52] is not unique to us. I think this is
[71:53] very typical. Every single time we leave
[71:55] the house, it's an emergency. And it's
[71:57] not my fault, it's always Robins. Like
[71:59] every single time we leave, she has got
[72:01] like four bags, water bottles, can't
[72:03] find the keys. Is that is that true in
[72:05] your household as well?
[72:06] >> Of course.
[72:07] >> Okay. Right. I think that's pretty
[72:08] pretty standard. So, uh, I wanted to
[72:12] play her the clip of the cologne thing
[72:15] from last week. I thought she would
[72:16] think that was cute. She did not think
[72:18] it was cute. Um, so we were already on
[72:22] we were we were already on on high
[72:23] alert, you know. We were just yelling at
[72:25] each other for getting me to the train.
[72:27] like I got to be it's it's 8:04.
[72:29] >> Yeah, it happens.
[72:31] >> So during the unwind, I'm trying to play
[72:33] her play this this clip for her and she
[72:37] was listening and she goes, "God, shut
[72:39] up. Like get get to the point. Stop
[72:42] talking."
[72:44] And I got to admit, I got to admit, she
[72:47] had a point.
[72:50] >> It was a lot of talking.
[72:51] >> Okay. I We did get a lot of clone
[72:53] recommendations for your son, though.
[72:54] And I just picked out a few because
[72:56] these are ones I've had in the past. So,
[72:57] someone said there was an actual Michael
[72:59] Jordan clone of the '90s. And I remember
[73:00] this. My first girlfriend gave it to me
[73:03] for Christmas. And I
[73:05] >> a God, it had to be terrible. Uh polo
[73:07] was another one. The blue polo. I
[73:08] definitely had that when I was in high
[73:10] school or college.
[73:11] >> Feel like there was multiple polo. There
[73:12] was the blue polo with like sideways.
[73:16] >> The blue one with the silver top. I had
[73:18] >> I think you I don't know if you and I
[73:19] were talking about this. I met somebody.
[73:21] I have cologne bottles from 2004. They
[73:26] last forever.
[73:27] >> Yeah, they do.
[73:30] >> Anything else on the cologne?
[73:30] >> Someone said start them out with Axe
[73:32] body spray, but I think polo is not a
[73:33] bad way to start. All right, two two
[73:35] short stories. Uh I was sitting on my
[73:38] porch the other day and the door to our
[73:39] porch. Uh I kept opening it was
[73:41] squeaking every time. I'm like, "God,
[73:44] this is so annoying." So went and got
[73:45] the WD40 and I just sprayed it and it
[73:46] goes away like magic. And I feel like I
[73:49] don't know when WD40 was invented. 100
[73:51] years ago maybe. Like in the past people
[73:53] just had to deal with stuff that annoyed
[73:55] them. Now we have stuff that can like
[73:56] just fix like WD40 is a miracle that it
[73:59] works.
[74:00] >> Such a good point.
[74:01] >> Spray a little bit. Like one other thing
[74:02] I in my office it's a shared office
[74:04] complex. I'm in an office by myself and
[74:06] there's always people that come in here
[74:07] to like solicit or like hey do you know
[74:08] where the person across the hall is? I'm
[74:10] like no I by myself I don't know them.
[74:12] So this guy comes in yesterday and I'm
[74:14] like yes. And he goes do you have any
[74:16] paper shredding needs? I'm from West
[74:18] Michigan Shredding Company. And I'm
[74:20] like, h he goes, let me guess. You're
[74:22] all digital now, huh? I said, 'Yeah. He
[74:24] goes, do you have a a business card I
[74:25] can take? I said, no, I don't really not
[74:27] a business. He goes, okay. And walked
[74:30] out. I'm like, man, there's a guy who's
[74:31] used to getting turned down like that. I
[74:33] mean, that is a company that is just
[74:35] right. I'm sure there's people who still
[74:37] need shredded stuff shredded. Like, I
[74:38] had a friend growing up who his dad was
[74:40] a private investigator and he would make
[74:41] us take all his boxes to like the
[74:43] industrial shredder. We'd have to sit
[74:45] there and watch. So, all the papers were
[74:46] shredded to make sure they were
[74:48] >> Wait, hang on. Pause. What a crazy job.
[74:51] >> Yeah. Right. I think he said he mostly
[74:53] followed around like divorced couples to
[74:54] see if there's a, you know, are they
[74:56] having an affair for the divorce
[74:58] proceed. I think it was a lot of that.
[75:00] >> I feel like uh I feel like private
[75:02] investigators should be a more movie
[75:05] trope. The only one I can think of is
[75:06] Pat Healey.
[75:07] >> Yeah, you're right. But he Yeah, he he
[75:09] was just a very normal guy, but I think
[75:10] it wasn't as exciting as you'd think
[75:11] from the books and movies. All right,
[75:13] recommendations. Uh, I'll go first
[75:16] because I I saw the Odyssey and it's
[75:19] funny. I saw the Odyssey and walked out
[75:21] and the kind of movie you walk out and
[75:22] you go, "Holy shit." One of those, you
[75:25] know, I thought that a lot of people
[75:26] talked about the Cyclops scene. I
[75:28] thought the Trojan horse scene was like
[75:29] an alltime movie scene. The music and
[75:32] the we were in like the Dolby
[75:34] atmosphere, so like the it was like
[75:35] pounding our seats. Like that whole
[75:37] scene I thought was just an alltimer.
[75:40] >> He was in the horse with them. That's
[75:41] how he shot that. Christopher Nolan.
[75:44] >> So, I want to read I I So, I'm still a
[75:45] he a physical magazine guy for GQ and uh
[75:49] >> you know, you you really are
[75:53] Gentleman Quarterly's core audience.
[75:55] >> Oh, totally. I'm a GQ guy.
[75:56] >> Like, you're fit. You you like to look
[75:59] good. You you run. You like clothing.
[76:03] You like fashion and movies. They had a
[76:06] big profile about the movie and how to
[76:07] make it because that's kind of I was at
[76:09] um a store in Chicago shopping for a
[76:11] shirt and the guys at the counter were
[76:13] talking about the Odyssey. I said I saw
[76:14] it last night. Did you hear how they did
[76:16] the Cyclops scene? Did you hear they did
[76:17] this scene? Like people love talk about
[76:18] that stuff with the movie. So it's a
[76:20] very social movie. So anyway, uh in this
[76:22] story they talk about Christopher Nolan
[76:24] how he inspires both devotion and a
[76:25] certain kind of massochism. And they
[76:27] talked about how Matt Damon was watching
[76:28] Nolan's team do something spectacular
[76:29] like build some platform off the side of
[76:31] a mountain really quickly that could you
[76:33] could put a techno crane on. And he said
[76:35] the assistant director saw David Damon
[76:37] like marveling at this and he told Damon
[76:40] what's interesting is that every single
[76:41] person here could work on an easier
[76:42] movie for more money but they don't. And
[76:46] that's the kind of thing you aspire to
[76:47] in life. Sure, there's a lot of rich
[76:49] people, but you're doing something that
[76:51] everyone wants to be at to doing that's
[76:52] like really cool. And that's that like
[76:54] no, there's no there's never been a
[76:56] director like Nolan before who does what
[76:57] he does.
[77:00] >> No.
[77:00] >> Mind blown. Just so well done.
[77:03] >> I don't know why I've been standing on
[77:04] ceremony not refusing to see Tenant.
[77:06] Makes no sense.
[77:08] >> Give it a try. Your expectations are
[77:09] probably so low.
[77:10] >> So low. I I really I think it was what I
[77:13] forget what turned me off when it came
[77:14] out. like people couldn't hear what was
[77:16] going on or
[77:17] >> it wasn't good but
[77:18] >> story made no sense. But then I listened
[77:20] to uh
[77:22] who's on this pod? I think Sean Amanda
[77:24] and Chris Ryan on the Big Picture
[77:25] talking about the top Nolan movies and
[77:27] they had 10 pretty high. It's the only
[77:29] one I've never seen.
[77:31] >> All right. Yeah, I just didn't do it for
[77:32] me. Uh a couple more. Uh I didn't really
[77:35] like Shrinking season one that much. I
[77:36] thought it was just okay and I thought
[77:37] why is Harrison Ford doing this show?
[77:39] But I watched season two and three a
[77:40] bunch of people and I I absolutely loved
[77:42] it. got it's a show that got better the
[77:43] further it went along and seeing
[77:45] Harrison Ford at age 84 still
[77:47] occasionally tapping into like his
[77:48] unbelievable acting like he he'll bring
[77:50] it out every once in a while. He's kind
[77:52] of funny and there's scenes with
[77:53] Harrison Ford and Michael J. Fox in
[77:54] season 3. I was like, "Oh my god, I grew
[77:56] up with these two people. I grew up
[77:58] watching them all and Michael J. Fox has
[78:00] you know pretty the whole scene is
[78:02] Harrison Ford is developing
[78:03] Parkinson's." So Michael J. Fox on it's
[78:04] and it's Harrison Ford dealing with the
[78:06] fact that he's an old person who doesn't
[78:07] have much time left probably. It's
[78:09] really well done. Uh, I finished The Men
[78:11] Who Would Be King by Nicole Leaport,
[78:13] which is a book you recommended about
[78:14] DreamWorks.
[78:15] >> Awesome. Right.
[78:16] >> Great Hollywood stories. I love the fact
[78:17] that they thought Saving Private Ryan
[78:18] wasn't going to work. There was some
[78:20] amazing gladiator stories about Russell
[78:22] Crow trying to give a foot race to
[78:25] people and he lost and he blamed it on
[78:26] the sand. Yeah, he was a big-time
[78:27] psycho. Um, and they were going to do a
[78:29] streaming service in the do bubble like
[78:31] before Netflix
[78:32] >> and it didn't work out.
[78:34] >> Anyway, uh, yeah.
[78:36] >> Wait, was that the one about DreamWorks
[78:37] or was that about um,
[78:38] >> yeah, DreamWorks? all about Spielberg
[78:40] and David Gaffin and
[78:42] >> yeah good stuff you that was your
[78:43] recommendation good call
[78:45] >> very good um all right after shitty on
[78:47] Masters of the Universe last week I
[78:48] watched it three times
[78:51] >> I watched it once in full loan wanted to
[78:53] watch it uh I get it great kids movie
[78:56] >> right it's a kids movie
[78:57] >> and there was some stuff for the adults
[78:58] a few uh oneliners that the kids miss
[79:00] but yeah it was whatever
[79:01] >> they like poked fun at the old He-Man
[79:03] and what's with the name and what are
[79:05] you wearing and all that it was pretty
[79:06] good I thought
[79:07] >> Logan loved it he wants to be He-Man for
[79:08] Halloween.
[79:09] >> Okay.
[79:10] >> Um All right. House of the Dragon, you
[79:13] know, I'm such an idiot. Somebody
[79:14] emailed us. By the way,
[79:16] >> the actress that plays Rea is
[79:17] incredible.
[79:19] >> Yeah, she's pretty good. You're right. I
[79:22] actually think that I'm I'm going to zag
[79:23] on you. I think the show's tailed off a
[79:24] little this season.
[79:25] >> It has.
[79:26] >> I think but I It's still really good and
[79:28] really well done, but I think I'm just
[79:29] more attuned to the story of the the
[79:32] Seven Nights one or whatever that they
[79:34] came out earlier this year. I'm just I'm
[79:36] too confused all the time. They just
[79:38] keep bringing new characters. I'm too
[79:39] confused.
[79:40] >> I still I I like you still have no idea
[79:41] what's going on. And I don't know how
[79:42] this happened. I feel like the biggest
[79:43] idiot in the world. Somebody emailed us,
[79:45] hey, turn the sub turn the captions on.
[79:47] I watch everything with subtitle
[79:49] subtitles. I don't know why for some
[79:50] reason like my HBO is not I don't the
[79:52] subtitles turned on. So I feel like a
[79:54] mohawk. I miss the entire season just my
[79:57] subtitles off. A little late to turn it
[79:59] on. Um
[80:00] what else? What else? What else?
[80:04] Uh,
[80:07] >> that's it.
[80:07] >> Yeah, that's it.
[80:08] >> Alltime highs again.
[80:12] >> The stock market really is just so
[80:14] impressive when you think about
[80:15] everything that's been thrown at it.
[80:18] It's hard to believe.
[80:21] >> I really wish 10 years ago I knew that
[80:23] this would happen.
[80:25] >> What would you have done differently?
[80:28] >> Uh, I mean, I just would have owned the
[80:30] cues.
[80:31] >> Okay. and I just would have aggressively
[80:33] bought everything all the time.
[80:35] >> Of course, that's why the market
[80:36] >> but even with hindsight it wasn't easy.
[80:38] >> No, it really wasn't. None of this has
[80:40] been easy and it won't be easy going
[80:42] forward either. Draw downs are coming.
[80:46] Sometime in the next 30 years we'll have
[80:47] a recession again. I just know it bound
[80:49] to happen.
[80:50] >> Bold.
[80:51] >> Email us animal spirits the
[80:52] compoundnews.com. Personal emails,
[80:54] personal responses. Thank you to the
[80:55] production team as always. We went very
[80:57] long today cuz we had a lot to talk
[80:58] about. See you next time. Heat. Heat.
