US Trucking Rates Surge as DOT Crackdowns and Lawsuits Squeeze Supply

DOT严查与诉讼收紧运力供给，美卡车运费大幅飙升 针对非定居居民驾照的联邦执法行动与货运经纪人责任裁决正强力将卡车司机运力挤出市场；尽管司机士气跌入历史低谷，运价仍被推高。 尽管现货运价上涨且货运需求出现反弹（部分受到数据中心扩张的推动），卡车司机却因繁重的技术监控、严格的ELD执法以及全美严重的停车位短缺而士气低落。在供给端，联邦针对非定居居民CDL及英语熟练程度的强力执法，加之最高法院让经纪人承担责任的裁决，正在缩减运力并导致市场分化。对此，Truck Parking Club等私营停车交易平台正介入协助人类司机及自动驾驶车队获取关键的中转停靠基础设施。 Knight-Swift和J.B. Hunt等大型上市卡车运输承运商股价大幅上涨，预示着货运市场出人意料的反弹。 (0:00) 与以往纯粹由需求增长驱动的市场周期不同，当前的运费飙升主要由严重的供给侧收缩所推动。 (9:55) 具有里程碑意义的Montgomery最高法院裁决使货运经纪人须对承运人事故承担直接法律责任，迫使他们大幅提高筛选门槛，并可能催生双轨制运价体系。 (9:55) 交通运输部（DOT）对英语熟练程度和非定居居民CDL的严厉打击，已强行剥夺了数千名司机的上路资格。 (9:55) “FreightX”等在线卡车社区发起的众包调查揭露了普遍存在的CDL数据库异常，从而引发了更严格的联邦监管。 (18:21)

The U.S. trucking sector is experiencing a sharp rate rebound driven not by traditional demand cycles, but primarily by regulatory crackdowns and legal liability shocks that are removing carrier capacity. Rate Rebound and Supply-Side Destruction (3:08) Trucking spot rates climbed from $1.94 per mile in late December to over $3.00, lifting carrier stocks like Knight-Swift and J.B. Hunt. Industry executive Reed Loustalot explains that while prior upturns relied on demand expansion, this cycle stems from severe capacity destruction across small fleets. Increased demand is localized in heavy industrial sectors, such as data center construction requiring specialized transport for turbines and GPUs, but the dominant catalyst is a shrinking driver pool. Regulatory Crackdowns on Driver Credentials (20:00) Federal enforcement under Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has targeted driver qualifications, enforcing English proficiency rules and tightening scrutiny on non-domiciled Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDLs). States such as California, Minnesota, and New York saw non-domiciled CDL issuances jump roughly tenfold following the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting investigations into suspect CDL schools and anomalous business registrations, including hundreds tied to single addresses or P.O. boxes. March 2026 renewal hurdles have forced fleets, especially operators running 1 to 7 trucks, to dismiss non-compliant drivers overnight. Legal Liability and Organized Cargo Theft (25:00) Court decisions, including the Montgomery Supreme Court ruling, have established that freight brokers can be held legally liable for hiring negligent carriers. Because the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration provides no safe-harbor standard, brokers face massive legal exposure, driving a transition toward a two-tier rate structure where vetted, pristine carriers command a premium. Simultaneously, Roadmaster Group recorded a 60% year-over-year surge in organized cargo theft, where criminal rings spoof legitimate carriers to siphon high-value shipments, raising security standards and hurting small independent owner-operators who rely entirely on spot-market brokers. Surveillance, Parking Scarcity, and Morale (30:00) Despite higher rates, driver morale has fallen significantly. Drivers report frustration with intrusive technology, such as inward-facing cameras, speed limiters, and Electronic Logging Devices (ELDs) that strictly cap driving time at 11 hours within a 14-hour window. Compounding this is a national shortage of safe parking, where roughly 700,000 public and traditional spaces serve millions of trucks. Drivers face a daily trade-off: forfeit paid driving time by shutting down early around 3:00 PM to secure a stall, or risk running out of legal hours and being forced onto highway ramps. Infrastructure Bottlenecks and Autonomous Staging Constructing public parking remains difficult, with costs reaching up to $200,000 per space alongside zoning opposition, leading private platforms to aggregate commercial lots to offer reserved staging. Loustalot notes that automation does not solve this bottleneck. Autonomous trucks operating commercial routes still require designated facilities to swap trailers, conduct maintenance, and refuel. Fleet operators and algorithmic dispatchers require pre-bookable, guaranteed parking spaces rather than first-come, first-served truck stops. The current freight rebound reflects permanent structural changes rather than a simple cyclical recovery. As legal exposure and regulatory rules reshape fleet compliance, the industry faces an unresolved question of how long small, independent operators can survive without formal safe-harbor standards.

彭博节目讨论指出，美国卡车货运市场近期迎来运费反弹与运力收紧，但这并非源于传统的宏观需求复苏，而是监管重拳、经纪商法律责任变化以及严重基础设施短缺共同导致的供给端出清，同时司机的职业生存体验仍在急剧恶化。 供给端监管重击与运力缩减 (9:55) 本轮卡车运费回升不同于以往由需求拉动的周期。根据Truck Parking Club首席营销官Reed Loustalot的分析，长期处于低迷的运价在近期出现反弹，关键动力在于供给端的剧烈压缩。美国交通部在部长Sean Duffy领导下展开了强力监管执法，重点整顿驾驶员的英语熟练度，并严格审查和作废违规发放的非户籍商业驾照（Non-Domiciled CDL）。 非户籍商业驾照允许具有合法工作许可的外国公民在美考取驾照，但在疫情后，加利福尼亚、明尼苏达和纽约等州的此类驾照发放量激增近10倍。网络货运社群与调查发现，大量驾照登记在可疑地址，甚至出现名字登记为“无名”（No Name Given）等荒谬现象。随着2026年3月实施更严苛的续期规则，依赖移民司机的微型车队被迫裁撤大批不合规驾驶员，使本已饱受高离职率困扰的现货市场有效供给快速出清。 经纪商法律责任演变与盗窃危机 (25:00) 司法判例正在根本性重构货运经纪的商业模式。在最高法院相关裁决以及涉及罗宾逊全球物流（C.H. Robinson）的诉讼影响下，经纪商过去的责任避难所被打破。即便承运人拥有联邦机动车安全管理局（FMCSA）认定的“满意”安全评级，一旦发生重大交通事故，经纪商仍可能面临数亿美元的诉讼赔偿。为了规避法律连带责任，经纪商开始大幅提高承运商准入门槛，使得货运市场逐渐向合规、高安全记录的头部承运人分层，甚至可能形成双层运价体系。 与此同时，高科技与组织化货物盗窃呈爆发式增长。来自Roadmaster Group的数据显示，货物盗窃同比激增了60%。现代犯罪网络不再是街头零散作案，而是演变为跨国犯罪团伙通过伪造合法承运人身份、设立虚假运输实体来整车骗取高价值货物，受害者包括费城数以万计的名贵波本威士忌仓库以及高端豪华汽车。这种诈骗与法律风险叠加，对占市场主体、拥有1至10辆车的小型独立车队构成了生存威胁。 监控强化与司机群体士气危机 (30:00) 尽管现货运价上涨提升了理论收益潜力，但一线卡车司机的从业士气却降至冰点。根据Truck Parking Club开展的定期调查，现代卡车文化中的“牛仔”浪漫主义与公路自由感已荡然无存。取而代之的是严密的技术监视系统，包括车厢内对准驾驶员面部的摄像头、强制性发动机限速器，以及严格记录驾驶工时的电子记录装置（ELD）。 技术被司机普遍视为剥夺自主权的对抗性工具。自2017年底强制执行ELD以来，司机每天被死死限制在14小时工作窗口与11小时驾驶上限内，没有任何宽限余地。由于行业普遍按里程而非按工时计酬，司机在装卸货码头遭遇的长时间无薪等待，加剧了对该行业的挫折感与疏离感。卡车运输从昔日兼具自由与报酬的独特生活方式，彻底沦为单纯出卖体力和承受高度管制的生计妥协。 找车位难题与物理基础设施瓶颈 卡车停车位短缺已成为制约行业生产率与司机福祉的最核心痛点。全美数百万辆商业卡车每天争夺仅约70万个公共及传统商业停车位。新建公共车位的审批与建造成本极为高昂，单个车位在政府主导项目中可高达20万美元以上，传统大型连锁休息站也受制于高昂的地产成本。 在严苛的工时规程下，司机若在下午三四点早早进站抢车位，将白白牺牲3至4小时的有薪驾驶里程；若坚持开到晚间，则面临无处停靠而被迫违规停在高速匝道肩膀的危险。这种每天损失数小时有效营运时间的矛盾，催生了按需预约的私有场地停车平台。即使自动驾驶卡车在得州等特定干线投入测试，其依然需要依赖中途集结站进行甩挂、保养与补给，说明货运物理节点的瓶颈无法通过算法纯粹消除。 高价值特种货运需求与结构性分化 在整体宏观经济波动之外，局部高价值实物供应链对物流提出了极高要求。人工智能热潮推动全美数据中心建设，发电机组、高压电气设备以及专用GPU服务器等极其沉重且价值高昂的组件必须运往施工现场。由于这些物资是货盗团伙的重点目标，承运人和托运方必须提前与安保封闭停车场对接，实现精准调度和预先防范。 节目主持人和嘉宾总结认为，虽然 Knight-Swift 和 J.B. Hunt 等上市承运商股价大涨，运费指数自低位攀升，但绝不能单纯视之为普通的宏观运力繁荣。它本质上是由劳工准入收紧、司法连带侵权诉讼、高科技防盗压力及极端物理基建短缺驱动的结构性洗牌，依靠廉价无序竞争的零散运力正被不可逆转地挤出市场核心。 本期节目指出，卡车运输业表面上的景气回暖，实则是严格的劳工身份审查、严苛的经纪人连带侵权法律判例以及停车基础设施极度匮乏共同引发的供给侧出清。未解决的根本矛盾在于：行业对安全合规与实时追踪的制度要求，正在不断压垮底层独立司机的生存空间与从业尊严，而物理层面的停放与安全痛点仍难以单凭纯数字技术迅速化解。

## Background 本期内容来自彭博（Bloomberg）旗下的知名播客《Odd Lots》，由主持人 Joe Weisenthal 与 Tracy Alloway 主持，发布于 2026 年 8 月 13 日。节目简介指出，过去一年货运市场迎来了显著复苏与运费暴涨，但这轮繁荣伴随着政府在供给侧对从业资格的铁腕整顿、监控技术的普及以及最高法院裁决对运力的压制；本期对话 Truck Parking Club 首席营销官 Reed Loustalot，深入探讨为何运价繁荣之下司机群体反而极度不满，并聚焦长途卡车停车难这一关乎收入与生存的核心痛点。 ## TL;DR 节目深入剖析了卡车货运行业本轮运价反弹背后的结构性异化：它并非纯粹由宏观需求爆发拉动，而是供给侧遭遇了系统性剧震。联邦政府对非本地居民商业驾照（Non-domiciled CDL）及英语熟练度的严格审查，叠加最高法院判决对货运经纪人施加连带事故责任，导致海量小微长尾运力被迫出清，行业准入门槛永久性抬高。与此同时，全方位技术监控（如 ELD 和车内摄像头）剥夺了卡车司机原本赖以支撑的公路自由与尊严感，而在 11 小时法定连续驾驶上限的硬约束与全国严重匮乏的车位基建夹缝中，司机每天都要陷入残酷的“停车博弈”，身心俱疲。行业正从无差别的同质运力走向基于安全信用评级的严苛分层，传统依靠廉价高风险运力的运作模式正迎来不可逆的终结。 ## Atmosphere & style 整期节目兼具宏观财经分析的锐利穿透力与一线公路生态的粗粝现实感，两位主持人与嘉宾 Reed Loustalot 谈笑风生却字字见血。对话在调侃“卡车股涨幅跑赢科技巨头”的幽默中展开，随后迅速下沉至极具压迫感的微观现实：从挂靠数百家空壳公司的荒诞邮箱、洗劫名酒与豪车的跨国组织犯罪，再到司机因害怕超时被迫在凌晨冒险违停高速匝道的无助焦虑。访谈不仅揭示了冷冰冰的运价数字，更弥漫着一种为卡车“牛仔文化”与公路自由消亡而叹息的怀旧与落寞感，呈现出高度专业且质感饱满的行业全景。 ## Bulletin - `01:45` 货运市场迎来强劲反弹，Knight-Swift 与 J.B. Hunt 股价大涨，干线即期运费从去年底约 1.94 美元/英里一度冲破 3 美元/英里关口。 - `10:00` 本轮繁荣非单纯由需求驱动，而是政策强力收紧（如严查英语熟练度与非本国定居商用驾照 CDL）及最高法院蒙哥马利案裁决导致经纪人承担连带法律责任，引发系统性运力收缩。 - `26:00` 组织化货物盗窃案激增 60%，高端烈酒与豪车成为跨国高智商团伙的主要目标，进一步加剧物流网络审查压力。 - `32:50` 技术监控（如车载摄像头、ELD 限速器）剥夺了卡车司机原有的公路自由文化，叠加法定 11 小时驾驶上限带来的残酷停车博弈，令一线司机士气跌至谷底。 - `42:25` 全美传统重卡车位仅约 70 万个却对应数百万辆卡车，Truck Parking Club 借助共享经济模式聚合私有场地，车位规模逼近 9 万个并深度服务 AI 数据中心特种物流需求。 ## Key takeaways - `01:45` 周期性规律与股价分化：卡车货运处于极端微型周期中，由于低准入门槛，运价常在繁荣与过度供给破产间轮转，但本轮运输股如 Knight-Swift 年内走势一度跑赢 Meta。 - `06:50` 运价反弹驱动力重构：本轮运价大涨不仅由数据中心等重型基建需求带动，更关键的是过去三年寒冬出清与监管铁腕清洗带来的供给端永久性收紧。 - `10:00` 资质严打引发运力骤降：交通部部长 Sean Duffy 强推英语熟练度考核与整顿非本国定居 CDL，直接迫使大量依赖外籍司机的长尾小车队停运解散。 - `24:30` 最高法院蒙哥马利裁决重创经纪商模式：货运经纪人失去传统法律责任豁免，面临致命连带赔偿风险，迫使其只敢与极高安全评级的承运人合作。 - `12:00` 小微车队面临生存绝境：全美数十万家拥有 1-7 辆车的小车队无力直接对接大型货主，在经纪人极度收紧审核及司机会员流失率超 100% 的压力下货源遭切断。 - `17:00` 空壳注册与驾校乱象整治：业内曝光单个信箱挂靠数百家卡车公司及 CDL 姓名栏印有“未提供姓名”（NNG）等漏洞，促使联邦大幅收紧续期条件。 - `26:00` 货物盗窃演变为高精尖跨国犯罪：盗窃案件年增 60%，犯罪团伙利用虚假身份刺探货运数据，连车带货整批吞下昂贵波本威士忌与豪华汽车。 - `30:00` 货运服务告别同质化：经纪人因规避数亿美元天价诉讼而为合规安全承运人支付溢价，货运市场由单纯的价格“逐底竞争”演化为结构性费率分层。 - `32:50` 技术监控异化职业尊严：“生活方式牺牲 = 薪水 + 自由感”的人生算式彻底打破，车载摄像头与 ELD 设备的全方位监控瓦解了司机的公路牛仔认同感。 - `36:30` 自动驾驶难以替代停车需求：无人卡车同样依赖集结调遣站（staging yards）进行货物中转与维护，对 100% 确定性的停车网络依赖度不降反升。 - `40:00` 11小时驾驶硬约束与停车博弈：司机全凭里程计酬，因担心终点无车位而被迫提前数小时收工或违规停在进出匝道，单人生产力大幅蒸发并造成重度心理焦虑。 - `42:25` 传统基础设施与重卡存量矛盾：全美仅约 70 万个传统车位却有数百万辆重卡，每天下午 5 点服务区全线告罄，且公共休息区单个新增车位改造成本极高。 - `44:30` 共享停车模式填补有效运力黑洞：Truck Parking Club 借助私有闲置用地双边匹配，以每周新增超千个车位的速度超越传统重资产建设周期。 - `46:05` 数据中心供应链带来安全集结增量：高价值电力涡轮机与 GPU 服务器机柜成为盗窃重灾区，推动了施工带周边高防护设防集结点的定制化爆发。 - `50:00` 重构“有效运力”与货运信用评级构想：若合规司机因经纪商整合而缺乏网络接入能力，其运力在现实中将被判定为无效；市场迫切需要类似企业债的“AAA级安全评级”来充当司法避风港。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `01:45` 货运周期的强势回归：卡车运输股与运费的爆发 在节目开场，Joe Weisenthal 和 Tracy Alloway 感叹他们已经太久没有做关于卡车货运（Trucking）的专题了。早在今年 1 月，货运与物流公司就开始频繁提及行业回暖的迹象。如果观察二级市场的表现，Knight-Swift（股票代码：KNX）以及 J.B. Hunt 等运输龙头的股价走势令人瞩目，Knight-Swift 年内的涨幅甚至超越了 Meta，J.B. Hunt 的股价也近乎翻倍。两人调侃道：“忘掉 AI 吧，显然真金白银都在卡车货运里。”当然，这两者之间并非毫无关联——支撑当前 AI 建设热潮的物理设备（如数据中心所需的涡轮机与重型发电设备）最终都需要通过卡车运往目的地。 运价数据的反弹同样印证了复苏行情。根据 Truckstop 的厢式车运价指数（Van Rate Index），去年 12 月干线运费基准大约在每英里 1.94 美元左右，随后一路突破了 3 美元关口，近期虽有微幅回调，但整体涨势坚挺。Tracy 指出，卡车货运是一个具备极强周期性（Cyclical）的行业，与宏观经济动辄数年的长周期不同，卡车货运在一次宏观繁荣或衰退中甚至可能经历七八次微型周期。其核心机制在于个人车主兼司机（Owner-operators）的准入门槛极低：每当运价上涨，大量人员涌入市场购置车辆；随后市场迅速过剩并压垮运价，导致大量个体司机破产退出，产能出清后新一轮周期重新启动。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 卡车运输行业的经典繁荣与萧条周期 accDescr: 展示准入门槛低如何引发运力过剩、运价暴跌、运力出清并周而复始。 subgraph 繁荣阶段 A["运力需求上升 / 运价走高"] --> B["低准入门槛吸引大量独立司机涌入"] B --> C["市场运力迅速饱和过剩"] end subgraph 萧条与重置阶段 C --> D["竞争白热化，即期运价暴跌"] D --> E["个体车主大批破产，运力退出市场"] E --> A end ``` - **运价指数对比**：干线即期运价（Van Rate Index）从去年底的约 1.94 美元/英里强劲攀升，一度冲破 3 美元/英里。 - **美股标的表现**：Knight-Swift（KNX）年内走势超越科技巨头 Meta，J.B. Hunt 股价接近翻倍。 - **本轮周期的核心疑问**：当前的反弹究竟是传统周期的简单重复，还是伴随着司机供给收紧与监管收紧等更深层的结构性变化。 --- ### `05:00` 嘉宾 Reed Loustalot 登场与“卡车停车俱乐部”的共享经济模式 为了深入了解市场一线情况，节目邀请了 Truck Parking Club 的首席营销官（CMO）Reed Loustalot。Reed 在货运物流行业深耕了十余年，职业生涯始于全美排名前五的大型无车承运与货运经纪公司 Echo Global Logistics，随后在交通技术服务商 Trimble 工作，之后也曾独立创业。几年前他在 Twitter（现 X）上与货运行业各方交流甚至“搅动舆论”时与 Joe 相识。如今他定居在被 FreightWaves 创始人 Craig Fuller 誉为“货运小巷”（Freight Alley）的田纳西州查塔努加市（Chattanooga）。 针对 Tracy 关于“货运繁荣时停车需求是否更加紧绷、司机是否在数据中心外绝望绕圈找车位”的疑问，Reed 解释了卡车停车位这一特殊基础设施的困境。在现实中，建造全新的卡车专用停车位极为困难：选址极其严苛、改造成本高昂，且绝大多数地方政府与社区因噪音、尾气和拥堵而不愿批准此类用地。因此，传统意义上的“新增供给”极难快速跟上。Truck Parking Club 的应对方式类似于 2010 年代兴起的共享经济（类似卡车停车领域的 Airbnb）：全美各地的私有地产上散落着数以百万计未被充分利用的空闲车位，平台建立起双边市场，连接拥有闲置场地的私人物业业主与迫切需要停车休息的卡车司机，司机通过 App 预订并向地主付费。 - **行业数字化现状**：卡车运输涉及复杂的物理实体，全美有近 100 万家卡车运输公司，行业长尾极其分散，绝大多数车队规模不到 10 辆车，导致行业对新兴技术的采纳普遍滞后。 - **疫情后的转折点**：2020 年疫情暴发后市场极度火热、运价暴涨，大批新运力涌入；但到了 2022 年中后期运价崩溃，整个行业陷入了长达三年以上的低迷期。 --- ### `06:50` 拆解本轮运费上涨的驱动因素 随着讨论深入，Joe 提出了核心问题：在过去两三个季度里，无论是航运股票价格还是即期运费均出现了显著飙升，推动这一趋势的多元力量究竟由哪些因素构成。Reed 回溯指出，自 2022 年中下半叶运价见顶暴跌以来，货运市场经历了一场持续三年的极度寒冬。本轮运力重构与价格修复的背后，既有传统出清带来的供给紧缩，也交织着移民与合规执法、对司机的技术监控升级，以及最高法院近期相关裁决对运力端形成的深远约束。 ### `10:00` 供给端风暴：政策重拳与最高法院判决如何重塑卡车运力 在经历长达两年的行业低谷期后，绝大多数业内分析人士原本认定，唯有货运需求的实质性复苏，才有可能重新推高运价。然而现实的发展却打破了这一预期：本轮运价反弹并非完全由需求拉动，而是供给侧遭遇了前所未有的系统性收缩。自新一届联邦政府上任以来，监管部门针对卡车司机的英语熟练度要求以及“非本地居民商业驾照”（Non-domiciled CDL）展开了大规模的整顿与清理。这一系列铁腕措施在物理层面将大量运力直接“切出”了市场，导致现存的运力供给急剧萎缩。 雪上加霜的是，近期最高法院对蒙哥马利案（Montgomery case）的裁决进一步冲击了行业生态。在传统模式下，承揽了全美约 30% 货运量的货运经纪人（Freight Brokers）享有一定的法律责任豁免，通常无须为合作承运商（Carriers）的过失或交通事故承担连带赔偿责任。如今这一法律护城河出现裂痕，经纪人正面临极大的连带诉讼风险。这种转变导致经纪人在挑选运输车队时风声鹤唳，承运商的安全评级（Safety Ratings）一夜之间成为不可逾越的硬门槛，合规且安全的优质运力因此享有极高的溢价。 尽管市场局部出现了一些需求亮点——例如人工智能数据中心建设热潮带动了平板卡车（Flatbed）的繁荣——但整体准入门槛已发生根本性改变。政府正全力扎紧篱笆以阻拦所谓的“不良行为者”（Bad Actors）涌入。如果未来再次发生类似疫情期间前所未有的全网需求暴增，货运市场恐将无法再像当年那样迅速扩充运力来吸收需求，整个行业的运力供给弹性已被制度性收紧。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 货运供给端收紧与运力出清机制 accDescr: 展示监管政策、法律诉讼风险如何重塑卡车行业准入门槛并收缩运力供给 subgraph Policy["监管政策收紧"] direction TB P1["英语熟练度严查<br/>(DOT / Sean Duffy)"] P2["整顿非本地居民驾照<br/>(Non-domiciled CDL)"] end subgraph Legal["法律责任外溢"] direction TB L1["最高法院裁决<br/>(Montgomery 案)"] L2["经纪人承担连带责任风险"] end subgraph Market["市场供给端巨变"] direction TB M1["海量小微车队司机出清"] M2["安全评级溢价上升"] M3["准入门槛永久性提高"] end Policy --> M1 Legal --> L2 --> M2 M1 --> M3 M2 --> M3 ``` - **货运经纪人市场体量**：货运经纪人在美国货运生态中占据极其核心的生态位，平均调度撮合全美约 30% 的货运总量。 - **行业准入门槛质变**：与疫情期间“买车即能跑车”的粗放扩张不同，当下政府对从业资格、语言标准与安全合规的围堵，使得新运力入场变得极其昂贵和困难。 --- ### `12:00` 现货市场的现实裂缝：小微车队的招工困境与 100% 离职率 针对市场上“即期运价（Spot Rate）与长约合同价（Contract Rate）倒挂反转是否印证了运力枯竭”的宏观疑问，业内一线更倾向于从微观现实中感知严峻的供给短缺。卡车运输行业本身是一个充满各色移民背景的庞大生态圈，许多移民车主依靠老乡社群和地缘网络来招募并维系自己的车队。以一位十几年前从乌克兰移民至美国并创办卡车运输公司的老板为例，他旗下的司机几乎全部是乌克兰老乡。在联邦对非本地 CDL 展开地毯式审查后，这位老板面临的现实是：“我必须把手下的所有司机全部解雇，然后从零开始重新招人”。然而在他的熟人圈子里，几乎人人持有的都是同类非本地居民 CDL，整支车队的运营在一夜之间瘫痪。 这些仅拥有 1 至 7 辆卡车的小微承运商，构成了全美卡车公司数量的绝对大头，规模高达数十万家，也是现货市场运力的基本盘。如今这些小微车队在制度上陷入了双重绝境：一方面承受着非本地 CDL 的身份清理，另一方面遭遇了由肖恩·达菲（Sean Duffy）掌舵的美国交通部（DOT）对英语熟练度的严格筛查。交通部的监管逻辑看似无懈可击：“如果你连路上的英文交通标牌都读不懂，怎么能安全操控一辆重达 8 万磅的重型卡车？”但这把标尺迅速卡死了大量依赖外籍司机的运力。 政策紧箍咒直接点燃了长期困扰长途货运的“司机高离职率”引信。在许多大型及中小车队中，司机的年化流失率历来高得惊人，甚至常年超过 100%。原本就极为脆弱的劳动力补充机制，在供给池被强行抽水后陷入了极度混乱。尽管这对于符合所有合规标准的本土合规司机而言意味着薪资的大幅看涨，但在车队雇主眼里，这种“搅局”彻底打乱了原有的运营节奏与成本模型。 - **小微车队主导地位**：全美卡车行业由数十万家仅拥有 1 至 3 辆或 5 至 7 辆车的小承运商支撑，这一群体也是现货市场的核心主力与本轮政策整顿的最大受害者。 - **重卡安全标准**：标准公路商用重卡整车总重可达 80,000 磅（约 36.3 吨），DOT 正是以此安全风险为由，将“看懂交通标识”的英语熟练度列为不可妥协的红线。 - **疯狂的离职率指标**：行业部分车队的司机年流失率突破 100%，意味着一家拥有 100 个司机岗位的车队每年需要雇佣超过 100 名新司机才能维持运力不掉线。 --- ### `17:00` 驾照疑云与“未提供姓名”荒诞乱象 围绕非本地居民商业驾照（Non-domiciled CDL）的合法性及其向正式居民驾照的转换机制，业内存在着诸多复杂的法律盲区。整场监管风暴的最初导火索，很大程度上来自于社交网络上货运从业者自发掀起的技术打假运动。过去两年多时间里，活跃在社交平台 X（原 Twitter）上一个自称为“FreightX”的紧密货运社区，一直在深度剖析到底是什么样的公司和从业者在疫情后迅速挤占了货运市场。 在这个去中心化的行业调查过程中，业内人士挖出了一系列匪夷所思的监管漏洞。大约在一年前，FreightX 的从业人员震惊地发现，大量由某些州核发出的商业驾照（CDL）上，持证人的名（First Name）一栏竟然赫然打印着系统默认占位符——“未提供姓名”（No Name Given，简称 NNG）。一个连真实姓名都未被核实录入的驾驶员，竟然可以合法手握全美通行的重卡驾照在州际公路上开动几十吨重的挂车。这一极具讽刺意味且漏洞百出的乱象被公开曝光后，迅速点燃了公众与立法机构的怒火，彻底将非本地驾照和灰色准入问题推上了联邦监管的审判席，成为引发当下供给端铁腕清洗的最直接推手。 ### `20:00` 非本国定居商用驾照的激增与驾校乱象整治 卡车货运行业近年来出现了一批令人触目惊心的空壳注册现象：例如加利福尼亚州信号山（Signal Hill）的一处普通公寓里，居然注册了多达200家卡车运输公司；而在怀俄明州的谢里登（Sheridan），一个简陋的邮政信箱（PO Box）名下更是挂靠了大约600家卡车公司。这种离谱的行业异象迅速引来了监管机构的彻查。尤其是在交通部部长肖恩·达菲（Sean Duffy）与美国交通部（DOT）的强力介入下，监管焦点精准对准了两大命门：驾驶员的英语熟练度（English language proficiency）以及“非本国定居商用驾驶执照”（Non-domiciled CDL）。 所谓非本国定居商用驾驶执照（Non-domiciled CDL），理论上是自1980年代中期就已设立的合法机制，允许那些拥有合法在美工作许可、但非本土永久定居的外国公民考取商用驾照开卡车。理论上，持有该执照的人员同样需要在美通过严格的商用驾照考核，而非直接拿着母国驾照上路。然而在新冠疫情爆发后，加利福尼亚州、明尼苏达州和纽约州等地的非本国定居 CDL 签发量突然暴增了近十倍，与历史数据脱节。这引发了监管部门和从业者对驾照考核质量与安全培训的普遍怀疑。卡车圈内充斥着各种黑心驾校的乱象，违规培训、虚假教学大行其道，被形容为“像发糖果一样随意滥发 CDL 驾照”。 面对主持人关于这究竟是社交媒体上的“雷声大雨点小”还是货真价实行业风暴的提问，里德·劳斯塔洛特（Reed Loustalot）坚定地表示这完全是“百分之百”在现实中发生的巨震。他从身边的卡车公司老板处每天都能听到运力告急的抱怨，货运经纪人（Freight Brokers）面临着车源紧缺、运费飙升的困境。加之联邦政府自2026年3月起大幅收紧了非本国定居 CDL 的更新门槛，让许多执照自然到期作废，这导致货运供给侧的运力正在遭遇实质性的结构性收缩。 - **空壳挂靠案例**：加州信号山单个公寓挂靠约200家卡车公司，怀俄明州谢里登单个邮政信箱挂靠约600家承运商。 - **签发量暴涨**：加利福尼亚、明尼苏达、纽约等州在疫情期间非本国定居 CDL 签发量达到历史常态的近10倍。 - **政策紧缩**：政府明确规定大幅收紧续期条件，导致此类卡车司机的有效执照自然递减。 --- ### `24:30` 最高法院判决与货运经纪人商业模式的生存危机 运力紧缩的背后还潜藏着整个货运生态网络的连锁反应。在过去，许多东欧或乌克兰裔车队与特定的货运经纪人形成了深度的熟人合作网络；然而，最高法院近期的重磅裁决彻底打破了这种生态的平静。传统上，货运经纪人并不对承运人（Carrier）在道路上发生的恶性交通事故承担责任；但新的司法裁决为向经纪人追责打开了大门，认为经纪人在选用承运人时若未尽到合理的安全审查义务，就必须承担连带赔偿责任。 这一判例震动了法律界和整个物流行业。法律专家直言，如果司法沿着这个方向推进，货运经纪模式本身将遭遇严重的结构性危机。现实中，像 C.H. 罗宾逊（C.H. Robinson）这样的巨头就深陷泥潭：即便他们雇用的承运人在联邦汽车运输安全管理局（FMCSA）网站上拥有官方认证的“满意”（Satisfactory）安全评级，且此前已顺利拉了200多单货物，但一旦该卡车卷入致命车祸，经纪人依然面临数百万乃至天价的赔偿判决。更为致命的是，联邦政府并没有为经纪人划定清晰的合规避风港标准，行业充满大量灰色地带。 如果货运经纪人生存维艰，整个长尾卡车生态也将遭遇灭顶之灾。全美有数十万家仅有一两辆车的小型独立卡车承运商，他们根本不可能直接敲开卡夫亨氏（Kraft Heinz）等大型跨国货主的大门——大型货主只会将订单交给能调动数千辆车的经纪巨头或奈特-斯威夫特（Knight-Swift）这种拥有上万辆车的大型车队。小车队完全寄生于经纪人网络，一旦经纪人因法律风险对承运人进行极端严苛的排查和筛选，大量小型车队将被无情切断货源。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 经纪人法律责任加重对运力生态的冲击链条 accDescr: 展示最高法院裁决如何颠覆货运经纪人审核逻辑，并波及依赖经纪人的长尾独立卡车承运商 subgraph LegalRisk["司法与政策压力"] A["最高法院新裁决：<br/>经纪人需承担事故连带责任"] B["FMCSA 评级缺乏绝对保护<br/>（如 C.H. Robinson 巨额判决案）"] A --> B end subgraph BrokerResponse["货运经纪人（Freight Broker）"] B --> C["大幅收紧承运人审核门槛"] C --> D["削减甚至抛弃高风险小型车队"] end subgraph CarrierImpact["长尾承运人生态"] E["数十万小型独立车队（1-10辆车）"] F["缺乏大型直客渠道<br/>（如 Kraft Heinz 等巨头）"] E --> F D -.->|"切断货源与运力接入"| E end ``` --- ### `26:00` 组织化货物盗窃猖獗：从“好家伙”到跨国犯罪网络 与安全资质审查并行的另一大行业梦魇是呈爆炸式增长的货物盗窃（Cargo Theft）。来自 Roadmaster Group 的最新行业数据显示，去年的货物盗窃案件猛增了整整60%。如今的货物盗窃早已不是大众印象中趁司机睡觉时“在货车后门顺走一个箱子”的街头小偷行为，甚至也不是经典黑帮电影《好家伙》（Goodfellas）里演的那种“让司机求着劫匪打自己一顿以向老板交差”的旧式套路，而是演变成高度专业化、类似黑手党运作的跨国高智商犯罪集团。 这些犯罪团伙的作案手段极其隐秘与现代化：他们伪造承运人身份（Carrier Spoofing），注册虚假空壳实体；前期表现得宛如一家循规蹈矩的正规卡车公司，老老实实接单送货，暗中通过货运数据刺探高价值货物的路线与排期；一旦锁定目标（如昂贵烈酒或高档汽车），便直接连车带货整批吞下，随后迅速人间蒸发。 这类高精尖团伙近期频频登上头条：费城一处仓库在一场精心策划的协同盗窃中被劫走近1.1万瓶波本威士忌；美国名厨盖伊·菲埃里（Guy Fieri）新推出的烈酒品牌货物惨遭拦截洗劫；就连著名篮球巨星沙奎尔·奥尼尔（Shaq）托运在商品运输车（Car Hauler）上的路虎揽胜（Range Rover）也直接被神秘盗走。尽管物流科技不断推陈出新、背景调查手段日益严密，这类猖獗的组织化犯罪依然愈演愈烈，与日益收紧的资质审查交织在一起，给本已紧绷的货运运力系统带来了深重的双重打击。 - **盗窃数据暴增**：行业权威数据表明货物盗窃案件年增长率高达60%。 - **高端烈酒重灾区**：近一年来名人跨界推出的酒类品牌成为重点打击对象，费城单次被盗波本威士忌近11000瓶。 - **高价值目标失窃**：包括沙奎尔·奥尼尔的路虎越野车在内的多起昂贵资产在专业承运过程中被盗。 ### `30:00` 货运分层与卡车司机低迷的行业士气 在货运经纪人的传统认知中，货运在本质上一直被当作完全同质化的大宗商品（commodity）。以往不同的承运人（carrier）之间即便报价有差异，经纪人也没有太强烈的理由给 A 公司比 B 公司支付明显更高的费用，最多是因为彼此熟悉、信任，愿意多付两三百美元，但履行的基本服务本质上毫无差别——无非是把货物从地点 A 运到地点 B。然而，随着针对经纪人审查（vetting）和雇佣流程的法律诉讼与问责日益严苛，货运市场可能出现结构性的费率分层（stratification）。经纪人为了规避巨大的法律责任风险（例如发生重大车祸时，路边广告牌律师可能会发起索赔高达数亿美元的连带诉讼），不得不主动去筛选那些拥有最佳安全评级、记录最可靠的承运人，并为此支付溢价，以确保在合规层面“把所有格子都打上勾”。 与此同时，即便当前运费回升、看似行业收入好转，一线卡车司机的士气却跌至谷底。嘉宾 Reed Loustalot 提到，Truck Parking Club 每周都会对平台上的司机群体进行问卷调查。近期一项关于司机如何看待行业现状、是否会向朋友推荐这份工作的调查，以及他与诸多卡车司机朋友的日常交流均显示，司机群体中普遍弥漫着一种沉重的消极与怀旧（nostalgia）情绪。卡车司机们怀念上世纪七八十年代，那是一个在《警察与卡车强盗》（*Smokey and the Bandit*）等流行影视中将卡车司机塑造成现代“牛仔”（cowboys）、拓荒者和探险家的时代。彼时他们享有社会的敬重，开着卡车在公路上驰骋被视为追逐自由的“最后边疆”。而如今，这种行业认同感和精神内核已经遭到毁灭性破坏，行业内部充满了一种类似“哀悼失去的过去”的情绪。 - **运费分层逻辑**：货运正在从无差别的纯同质服务，转向基于安全评级与合规保障的差异化定价，经纪人愿意付费买安心以防范天价诉讼。 - **怀旧情绪背后的差距**：司机们强烈感受到过往被全社会尊重、象征自由的生活方式已不复存在，如今只剩沉重的职业疲惫。 --- ### `32:50` 技术监控剥夺自由：“牺牲生活换薪水”的公式失衡 导致卡车司机心理崩塌的核心矛盾在于“技术”的引入。在传统的长途货运文化中，技术这个词对于卡车司机而言几乎是个贬义词。对司机来说，技术进步并未改善他们的生活，反而带来了全方位的全天候监控（surveillance）：车内安装的实时摄像头紧盯着他们的一举一动、发动机被强制加装限速器（speed limiters）、车上普及了电子记录设备（ELD，Electronic Logging Devices）。这些工具剥夺了卡车司机在路上根据实际情况自主安排行车与休息的自由，彻底站在了传统卡车文化所追求的“公路自由”的对立面。 主持人对此总结指出，从事长途卡车运输原本就是一项巨大的“生活方式牺牲”（lifestyle sacrifice），需要忍受疯狂的工时、长期离家在外的孤独，以及在码头长时间排队等候装卸。在过去，这笔人生的算式是：**生活方式的牺牲 = 丰厚的薪水 + 独特的公路文化与自由感**（比如在路边小店吃汉堡、当一名无拘无束的现代拓荒者）。但如今，随着严格监控的渗透，自由感和职业尊严被剥夺殆尽，算式变成了冷冰冰的“仅仅为了薪水而牺牲全部生活”，整个职业的心理吸引力由此彻底瓦解。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 卡车行业从业心态变迁对比 accDescr: 对比过去与现在卡车司机在生活牺牲、报酬与自由度之间的心理收益方程式。 subgraph Past["过去：具有文化吸引力的职业"] A1["生活方式牺牲<br/>(长时间离家/道路颠簸)"] --> B1["丰厚薪资报酬"] A1 --> C1["公路自由与牛仔文化<br/>(自主掌控工时/社会尊重)"] end subgraph Present["现在：遭到技术监控异化的职业"] A2["生活方式牺牲<br/>(码头拥堵/找车位难)"] --> B2["薪资报酬"] A2 --> C2["技术枷锁限制<br/>(车载摄像头/ELD设备/限速器)"] end ``` --- ### `36:30` 自动驾驶迷思与泊车危机的真实痛点 除了现有的监管约束，年轻一代在考虑考取商业驾照（CDL）时，还面临着“自动驾驶卡车即将全面取代人工”的舆论压力，这让他们怀疑这是否还能成为一项可持续的终身职业。Reed Loustalot 指出，虽然得克萨斯州等地区确实有许多公司在特定线路上测试运营自动驾驶卡车，但要达到大规模普及仍需漫长时间。很多人对自动驾驶存在认知误区，以为无人卡车会永远在路上行驶不停歇，从而不再需要停车位。事实上，货物需要中转，挂车需要集结与停放（staging）。自动驾驶车队对可靠的集结地和预约式停车网络有着极高要求，他们必须确保车辆行驶到某个节点时 100% 能停靠，而传统的路边休息区和普通卡车站完全无法提供这种确定性。 Reed Loustalot 进一步强调，在当下所有被媒体热炒的货运话题中（比如类似于盖·菲厄里/Guy Fieri 的龙舌兰酒被盗案等戏剧性货物失窃新闻），卡车停车难（truck parking）才是司机群体心目中真正最核心、甚至关乎行业生死的问题。它不仅是司机的“生活质量问题”（quality of life issue），本质上更是一个严重的“收入问题”（pay issue）。其根源在于 2017 至 2018 年前后联邦政府强制推行的 ELD（电子记录设备）法规：政府严格限制司机每天的工作上限为 14 小时，其中实际驾驶时间不得超过 11 小时，且时间一旦用尽系统便强制锁定，迫使司机不得不在严格的倒计时压力下寻找合法合规的停靠地点。 - **自动驾驶的停车需求**：即使卡车实现无人化，挂车调度、货物中转、车辆维护依然需要停靠站（staging yards），对确定性停车网络的需求反而更高。 - **ELD 法规限制**：司机每天最多工作 14 小时，其中最多可驾驶 11 小时，超时将面临严厉处罚，这直接将找车位的耗时与司机的实际收入和合规生命线捆绑在一起。 ### `40:00` 11小时工时硬约束下的“停车博弈”与每日心理重压 美国联邦法规对卡车司机的驾驶时间有着极其严格的法定上限——每天最多只能连续驾驶 11 个小时（Hours of Service）。这一规定没有任何变通弹性，一旦超时，司机的驾驶记录就会留下污点，可能导致商业车险保费激增，带来严重的直接经济损失。因此，卡车司机每天的时间表都被框定得极度僵硬。Reed Loustalot 分享了自己每天早上在佐治亚州北部 I-75 州际公路上通勤时的见闻：每天路过一处服务区，都会看到成排的重型卡车直接停在服务区通往主路的进出匝道甚至应急车道上。这些卡车之所以冒着危险停在那里，是因为下午 5 点在高速公路上飞驰时，电子记录仪（ELD）上的倒计时只剩最后 2 个小时；由于司机全凭行驶里程拿提成（paid by the mile），丢失的时间根本无法弥补，他们必须拼命压缩时间向目的地靠近。 这就迫使长途卡车司机每天都必须进行一场残酷的心理与经济博弈。如果下午 3 点遇到一个还有空位的传统卡车停靠站（Truck Stop），司机面临两难：是现在就靠边停车，白白浪费剩下 4 个小时宝贵的驾驶额度；还是顶着头皮继续往前开，最终在晚上 8 点陷在亚特兰大市中心完全无处容身？即便每天只因找车位或提前停车白白损耗 1 个小时，乘以卡车的每小时运营成本与可跑里程，再乘以整整一年、放大到整个大型车队的所有司机头上，其造成的生产力蒸发与隐形成本都是极其惊人的天文数字。 更严峻的是，这不仅关乎薪酬，更深刻折磨着司机的生活品质与心理健康。Reed 打了个生动的比方：纽约市曼哈顿的停车难全国闻名，如果你要去麦迪逊广场花园看一场纽约尼克斯队的比赛，提前两小时就得精打细算、步步为营规划路线，如果实在太麻烦可能直接就不去了；而住在佐治亚州乡村的人根本不会为了停车费半点心思。然而，对于长途卡车司机而言，他们的职业日常就像是“纽约市同一天在上演超级碗、世界大赛、NBA 总决赛和 NHL 斯坦利杯总决赛，全城没有任何停车位，但你又必须立刻驱车赶赴现场”。这种巨大的无助感与焦虑，是每位司机每天睁眼后都要经历的折磨。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 卡车司机的停车时间博弈 accDescr: 展示11小时驾驶上限下提前停车与冒险前行之间的两难抉择及其连锁反应 A["法定驾驶时限：每天11小时<br/>（ELD严格监控，超时将重罚）"] --> B{"行至下午三四点时<br/>剩余数小时额度"} B -->|"方案 A：保守提前停车"| C["进驻尚有空位的停靠站<br/>白白损失1至4小时工时"] B -->|"方案 B：冒险开满里程"| D["晚高峰驶入大城市核心区<br/>车位全满，被迫违规停靠匝道"] C --> E["里程缩水与直接收入减少<br/>车队资产利用率大幅下滑"] D --> F["面临罚单、事故与极度焦虑<br/>司机职业倦怠与流失率攀升"] ``` ### `42:25` 70万车位对决数百万卡车：传统基建的结构性瓶颈 针对主机人提出“美国拥有庞大的公路与州际高速网络，为何卡车车位却如此稀缺、是否存在规划失误”的疑问，Reed 剖析了传统重卡停车供给在物理与经济逻辑上的双重死结。传统上提供重卡停放的场所只有两类：州政府或联邦政府出资修建的公共休息区（Rest Areas），以及商业连锁卡车服务区（如 Love's、TravelCenters of America / TA、Pilot Flying J）。这两类设施都无法随心所欲地落地。商业连锁巨头虽然极度渴望扩张站点，但在高速公路出口选址面临极高的土地规划门槛和巨额建设成本。而公共休息区的建设不仅耗资巨大，审批与工程周期常常迁延数年，在部分政府资助的扩建项目中，折算到每个新增停车位的成本甚至高达数十万美元。 这种结构性门槛导致全美传统的正规卡车停车位总数长期停留在约 70 万个左右，但全美公路上行驶的重型卡车却多达数百万辆。供需之间数倍的永久性缺口，导致了全美统一的荒诞现象：每天下午 5 点一到，全国高速沿线的卡车服务区无一例外全部爆满。 为了打破这种僵局，Truck Parking Club 搭建了类似重卡停车领域的数字预订平台，司机只需打开手机即可实时锁定全美几乎所有主要城市的车位。Reed 援引了一位在过去一年内在平台预订了 56 次车位的个体独立车主兼司机（Owner-Operator）的真实案例。这位司机自掏腰包花钱预订，并不是为了享受奢侈，而是用于商业战略卡位：他要给丹佛市中心送货，预计晚上 7 点抵达丹佛，但仓库要求次日凌晨 3 点交货。由于丹佛市区极难停车，他宁愿支付 25、30 甚至 40 美元，预订一个距离收货仓库仅 1 英里处的专用车位，也绝不愿把车停在 30 英里外的传统高速停靠站。这样他不仅彻底免除了清晨为赶路而与 11 小时工时限制死磕的压力，还能避开早高峰，以第一顺位进场卸货。这种时间上的确定性让司机的运营压力大幅减轻，不再每天承受“开着卡车去赶超级碗”的心理折磨。 - **全美传统重卡车位总存量**：各州公共休息区与大型商业卡车停靠站合计仅约 700,000 个。 - **每日运力缺口节点**：每天下午 5:00（17:00）几乎所有沿线停靠站车位全部告罄。 - **个体司机典型策略**：单次自费 25 至 40 美元提前锁定目标仓库 1 英里以内的近距车位，换取避开早高峰与免受工时违规威胁的确定性。 ### `44:30` 平台化精准调度与按英里计费的供应链隐性损耗 卡车司机按英里计薪而非按小时计薪的核心机制，将停车难直接演化为全美供应链的隐形运力黑洞。在理想状态下，一名司机如果在 11 个小时的驾驶限额内以平均 60 英里的时速巡航，单日可以跑出约 660 英里的高效业绩。然而，如果因为担心到达终点后没有停车位，司机被迫提前 3 小时在路边排队等待或提前收工，这 3 个小时司机不仅一分钱报酬都拿不到，还会直接吃掉其当天的法定最大工时额度。对物流车队而言，昂贵的重卡资产整整损失了 3 小时的生产力；当这种损耗乘以全行业数以百万计的运力时，整个国家物流供应链的吞吐效率便遭受了实质性的系统性打击。 Reed 指出，货运行业内很多人至今仍抱有不切实际的幻想，认为只要坐等联邦和州政府拨付资金修建公共基础设施就能根本解决停车难题。政府投资固然多多益善，但单纯依靠公共财政不仅周期漫长，而且杯水车薪。与之形成鲜明对比的是民营数字化聚合模式的爆发力：Truck Parking Club 的网络目前正以每周新增 1,000 到 1,500 个车位的速度野蛮生长，全网车位总量已逼近 90,000 个大关。这意味着该平台单周新增的车位数量，就已经超过了全美大型传统连锁卡车停靠站全年新建车位的总和。 Reed 强调，平台的网络规模已经超越了全美最大的单一卡车服务区连锁品牌，并即将在不久的将来超过所有大型连锁卡车停靠站的总和，甚至超越全国全部公共服务区的车位总和。这种车位供给模式的底层重构，将彻底重塑司机与车队的调度生态，它直接联动着司机的实际薪资、身心健康、车队离职率乃至在途货物的防盗安全。 - **单日最大产能对照**：在 11 小时法定驾驶限额下以 60 mph 巡航，理论日产出达 660 英里；若提前 3 小时停工找车位，有效里程产出将折损接近 30%。 - **平台扩张规模对比**：Truck Parking Club 保持单周新增 1,000 至 1,500 个车位，全网车位已逼近 90,000 个，新增速度远超重资产基建建设周期。 ### `46:05` 数据中心基建热潮下的特种高危物流需求与节目尾声 在访谈的最后，主持人将视角由供给侧转向货运需求侧，询问在当前火热的宏观环境下，平台网络内部是否捕捉到了某些特定领域的爆棚需求，比如目前在全美大兴土木的人工智能与数据中心建设。Reed 对此给出了极其明确且坚定的肯定答复。 数据中心的核心构件——例如大型电力涡轮机、高密度变压设备以及搭载顶级 GPU 的服务器机柜——单价极其高昂。这类超高价值货物正在成为货运盗窃团伙高度觊觎的目标。因此，正在全美各地承建数据中心的核心厂商和专业承运方，已经主动与 Truck Parking Club 进行点对点接洽，共同定制物流集结方案。双方正在紧密推进专项合作，在关键运输走廊与建设工区周边规划专门的设防集结停靠点（Staging Locations），确保高价值关键组件在夜间停靠时获得万无一失的安全保障。尽管由于平台自身处于指数级狂飙增长阶段，难以完全从数据中剔除宏观季节性波动，但数据中心带来的高安全性停车需求绝对是当前最强劲的增量风口之一。 节目在轻松愉悦的气氛中收尾。主持人 Joe Weisenthal 与 Tracy Alloway 对 Reed Loustalot 带来的深度行业内部视角表达了由衷感谢，称赞这是《Odd Lots》所有卡车主题节目中信息量与行业“质感”（texture）极度饱满的一期。Reed 亦热情回应两位主持人的长年关注，笑称自己是节目的忠实听众，平时在社交网络上更是 Joe 的狂热推文粉丝、每条必赞。双方向彼此致意后，为整期深度对谈画上了圆满句号。 ### `50:00` 结构性拐点：法律责任如何重构货运生态与有效运力 在访谈结束后的讨论中，主持人深入复盘了当前货运市场的深层转变。单纯关注“运价曲线向上”或每日物理运力多寡等表面指标，很容易掩盖行业底层正在发生的剧烈变化。当前这轮繁荣并非单纯的周期性回暖，而是掺杂着长期的结构性重塑。尽管未来政府政策走向难以预测，但最高法院关于货运经纪商（Brokers）可能须对危险运输及承运人事故承担连带责任的裁决，显然是一项将长期存在并持续影响整个行业多年的制度性约束。 正如嘉宾 Reid Loustalot 所阐述的逻辑，如果这一法律风险导致未来货运经纪公司的数量大幅减少，整个市场的组织形态将被迫重构。哪怕市场上依然存在技术过硬、安全规范且英语流利的优质卡车司机与承运商，但如果他们缺乏足够的组织规模去接入新整合的生态网络，这些所谓的运力在实际意义上就根本算不上有效运力（"isn't really capacity then at that point"）。同时，这一转变也意味着货运经纪业务将不再仅仅是一场“逐底竞争”（"race to the bottom"），依靠压低成本和撮合高风险廉价运力的模式正面临法律与商业层面的双重终结。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 货运经纪人法律责任对有效运力的传导机制 accDescr: 流程图展示了最高法院裁决加重经纪人责任后，对行业生态与实际有效运力的传导影响 subgraph 司法与监管冲击 A["最高法院裁决<br>经纪商须对承运人风险承担法律责任"] --> B["面临毁灭性诉讼风险<br>(Nuclear Lawsuits / Settlements)"] end subgraph 行业生态演变 B --> C["行业告别无底线低价竞争<br>(Race to the bottom)"] B --> D["经纪商整合与出清<br>中介机构数量锐减"] end subgraph 运力结构重塑 D --> E["长尾小车队与独立司机<br>缺乏对接大机构的网络规模"] E --> F["合规/优质司机失去分发渠道<br>无法转化为市场'有效运力'"] end ``` - **非周期性的结构巨变**：最高法院关于承运人安全责任溯及经纪商的法律风险，改变了货运代理长期以来的轻资产、免责中介属性。 - **“有效运力”的重新定义**：在经纪商加速整合的大环境下，规模不足的小型承运商即便自身资质完备，也可能因缺乏系统接入能力而被挤出主流供应链。 --- ### `52:15` 卡车市场的“企业债”类比与安全信用评级构想 针对货运市场为何至今仍极度依赖大量人工中介这一问题，主持人们重温了往期节目的核心观察：卡车货运绝非传统意义上的同质化（fungible）大宗市场，而是一个充满特异性（idiosyncratic）的网络，其定价与撮合逻辑更接近于“企业债券市场”（corporate bond market）。针对承运人的审核涉及复杂的安全背景调查，为此主持人特别解释了负责该领域的官方机构——联邦汽车运输安全管理局（FMCSA, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration）。 随着经纪商因畏惧动辄摧毁整家公司的“毁灭性诉讼”或天价和解金（"nuclear lawsuits or nuclear settlements"）而草木皆兵，各方迫切需要更细化的安全评级标准。主持人半开玩笑地提出了一个政策设想：设立针对承运人的“货运信用评级体系”（"Credit ratings for freight brokers"）。如果官方能够提供一个明晰的合规认定标准——例如设立一个“AAA级承运商”标识——那么经纪商只要选择与AAA级卡车签约，就相当于在合规上完成了完备的尽职调查（due diligence）并获得免责避风港，从而化解无休止的诉讼恐慌。 - **市场异质性特征**：卡车运力因车况、路线、司机资质及安全记录千差万别，无法实现简单的自动化无缝替代，导致中介撮合环节至关重要。 - **反制法律风险的评级机制**：构想中的分级安全评级旨在为经纪商设立标准化的合规“安全区”，避免因单一事故遭遇致命的法律索赔。 --- ### `53:45` 节目结语与主播致谢 在探讨完货运安全评级构想后，主持人结束了当期的讨论。Tracy Alloway 与 Joe Weisenthal 正式宣布本期节目收尾，并向听众介绍了幕后制作团队成员 Carmen Rodriguez、Dashiell Bennett、Kale Brooks 以及 Kevin Lozano。 主持人呼吁对货运专题感兴趣的听众在各大播客平台留下好评，并欢迎大家通过彭博官网订阅 Odd Lots 每日新闻通讯，或加入官方 Discord 社群参与全天候的供应链与宏观经济讨论；彭博订阅用户亦可通过 Apple Podcasts 彭博专属频道收听无广告版节目。 ## Notable quotes > `01:45` 忘掉 AI 吧，显然真金白银都在卡车货运里。 — Joe Weisenthal / Tracy Alloway > `12:00` 我必须把手下的所有司机全部解雇，然后从零开始重新招人 — 乌克兰裔卡车公司负责人 > `12:00` 如果你连路上的英文交通标牌都读不懂，怎么能安全操控一辆重达 8 万磅的重型卡车？ — 美国交通部 (DOT) > `17:00` 未提供姓名 — 商用驾照系统占位符 (No Name Given / NNG) > `20:00` 像发糖果一样随意滥发 CDL 驾照 — Reed Loustalot > `30:00` 把所有格子都打上勾 — Reed Loustalot > `32:50` 生活方式的牺牲 = 丰厚的薪水 + 独特的公路文化与自由感 — Tracy Alloway > `32:50` 仅仅为了薪水而牺牲全部生活 — Tracy Alloway > `40:00` 纽约市同一天在上演超级碗、世界大赛、NBA 总决赛和 NHL 斯坦利杯总决赛，全城没有任何停车位，但你又必须立刻驱车赶赴现场 — Reed Loustalot > `50:00` 哪怕市场上依然存在技术过硬、安全规范且英语流利的优质卡车司机与承运商，但如果他们缺乏足够的组织规模去接入新整合的生态网络，这些所谓的运力在实际意义上就根本算不上有效运力 — Joe Weisenthal > `52:15` 设立针对承运人的货运信用评级体系 — Tracy Alloway / Joe Weisenthal ## Mentioned Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, Reed Loustalot, Sean Duffy (肖恩·达菲), Craig Fuller, Guy Fieri (盖伊·菲埃里), Shaquille O'Neal (沙奎尔·奥尼尔), Knight-Swift (KNX / 奈特-斯威夫特), J.B. Hunt, Meta, Echo Global Logistics, Trimble, Truck Parking Club, Truckstop (Van Rate Index), C.H. Robinson (C.H. 罗宾逊), Kraft Heinz (卡夫亨氏), Roadmaster Group, Love's, TravelCenters of America (TA), Pilot Flying J, FMCSA (联邦汽车运输安全管理局), DOT (美国交通部), FreightWaves, 《警察与卡车强盗》(Smokey and the Bandit), Montgomery 案 (蒙哥马利案), FreightX, 非本国定居商用驾照 (Non-domiciled CDL), 电子记录设备 (ELD), Carmen Rodriguez, Dashiell Bennett, Kale Brooks, Kevin Lozano ## Video description <p data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="paragraph" data-prosemirror-node-block="true" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">In the last year, freight companies have seen a significant upturn in the business. Volumes are up. Billing is up. And in addition to growing demand, we've also seen new constraints on the supply side, with the administration cracking down on who is even allowed on the road. As we know, trucking is an especially cyclical industry, but is this current boom structurally different from past booms? Why is it that despite the boom, many of today's drivers are unhappy with the state of the industry? On this episode, we speak with Reed Loustalot, the chief marketing officer at the the Truck Parking Club, a company which aims to help drivers find parking, so that they're not using up valuable road hours just looking for a place to stop for the night. We talk about the crackdown on the supply side of the market, the rise of surveillance, and how a recent Supreme Court ruling could impair capacity even further.</p> <p data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="paragraph" data-prosemirror-node-block="true">Read more:<br data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="hardBreak" data-prosemirror-node-inline="true"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/ship-pays-4-million-to-cut-10-day-line-to-cross-panama-canal?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Ship Pays $4 Million to Skip Line to Cross Panama Canal</a><br data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="hardBreak" data-prosemirror-node-inline="true"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-31/trucking-stocks-fall-on-legal-risk-in-worst-month-since-tariffs?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Trucking Stocks Fall on Legal Risk in Worst Month Since Tariffs</a></p> <p data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="paragraph" data-prosemirror-node-block="true">Only <a href="http://Bloomberg.com" data-inline-card="" data-card-data="">http://Bloomberg.com</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a></p> <p data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="paragraph" data-prosemirror-node-block="true"><a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a><br data-prosemirror-content-type="node" data-prosemirror-node-name="hardBreak" data-prosemirror-node-inline="true"><strong data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="strong">Join the conversation:</strong> <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">discord.gg/oddlots</a></p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p> [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/bfd63d35-c7ad-4a5c-a603-b4a400dbfa65/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

[1:45] Joe Weisenthal / Tracy Alloway: 忘掉 AI 吧，显然真金白银都在卡车货运里。 [12:00] 乌克兰裔卡车公司负责人: 我必须把手下的所有司机全部解雇，然后从零开始重新招人 [12:00] 美国交通部 (DOT): 如果你连路上的英文交通标牌都读不懂，怎么能安全操控一辆重达 8 万磅的重型卡车？ [17:00] 商用驾照系统占位符 (No Name Given / NNG): 未提供姓名 [20:00] Reed Loustalot: 像发糖果一样随意滥发 CDL 驾照 [30:00] Reed Loustalot: 把所有格子都打上勾 [32:50] Tracy Alloway: 生活方式的牺牲 = 丰厚的薪水 + 独特的公路文化与自由感 [32:50] Tracy Alloway: 仅仅为了薪水而牺牲全部生活 [40:00] Reed Loustalot: 纽约市同一天在上演超级碗、世界大赛、NBA 总决赛和 NHL 斯坦利杯总决赛，全城没有任何停车位，但你又必须立刻驱车赶赴现场 [50:00] Joe Weisenthal: 哪怕市场上依然存在技术过硬、安全规范且英语流利的优质卡车司机与承运商，但如果他们缺乏足够的组织规模去接入新整合的生态网络，这些所谓的运力在实际意义上就根本算不上有效运力 [52:15] Tracy Alloway / Joe Weisenthal: 设立针对承运人的货运信用评级体系

[30:00] Reed Loustalot: If the traditional trucker is looking for a job that gives them freedom, they're not finding that as much anymore. And so technology has had a bad rap. [30:00] Reed Loustalot: If they get in a wreck, God forbid, I'm as covered as I possibly can be in the event that some billboard attorney tries to sue me for $600 million [38:00] Reed Loustalot: Truck drivers every single day is like being in New York City when the Super Bowl, the World Series, the NBA Finals, and the NHL Finals are all there on the same day—and there's nowhere to park at all, but you have to go. [49:00] Joe Weisenthal / Tracy Alloway: There's so much interesting texture to the trucking market that is easy to not really observe if you're just looking at very simple metrics like line going up or how much physical capacity there is in a day.

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And you worked with several specialists during that time? Yes, especially the feeding team. They made such a difference. They helped my baby thrive and helped me feel confident as a mom again. And knowing you had access to one of the largest NICUs in the state what did that mean Everything I mean even though our baby didn end up needing the highest level of care just knowing it was there gave us incredible peace of mind To learn more about HCA Health One maternity and NICU network visit hcahealthone The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. at IBM we've seen this firsthand but by embedding AI across HR, IT and procurement processes we've reduced costs by millions slash repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off deep in the work that moves the business let's create smarter business IBM Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Wazenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. It been too long since we done a trucking episode This is just an objective fact that we need to get out of the way it is time i mean to be fair to be fair Yeah I think we both written about trucking in the Odd Lots newsletter I sure I think back in January you started to get some of the freight and logistics companies talking about maybe they were starting to see an upturn Yes. And looking at some share prices since then. So I've got look up Night Swift at the moment. What's the ticker? I mean, it's KNX. Okay, KNX. I've got Nightswift or, you know, J.B. Hunt, but Nightswift is a little bit more dramatic. I mean, since January of this year. No, it's a great run. It's had a great run. So I think the trucking rebound, it seems to be here. It seems to be here. You know, the problem with going like a long time, I mean, as you mentioned, we do write about it. So it's not like we're ignorant. But one of the things that we learned when we did a lot of trucking episodes, particularly in the years after the pandemic, was like when we talk about like the business cycle, you know, it's like these multi-year cycles. When truckers talk about the cycle, there might be like eight up and down cycles within one boom or within one recession. Just extraordinary cyclical. Right. So if we or hopefully anyone else have learned one thing from the truck episodes it is that this is such an incredibly cyclical industry And the standard explanation is that you have these really low barriers to entry for owner operators of trucks And so as soon as trucking rates start to go up, everyone decides to become a trucker. The market gets flooded. It overexpands. And then inevitably, the rates start to come down. And then you have a bunch of independent owner operators who start to go bust and then capacity comes out and the whole cycle can begin again. True. It seems real boom bust. And you mentioned the share prices of Knight Swift and J.B. Hunt. But another way to look at it, I'm just looking at the Internet Truck Stop Van Rate Index, just a sort of basic measure of how much it costs to move. That was in December of last year. It was like $1.94. I guess that's probably per mile. And now it broke three. It came down a little bit. So just by measuring the cost of trucking, It's clearly gone up. So we need to figure out what's going on. Sorry. I'm just looking at this night chart again, the night swift chart. You know, they've outperformed meta this year. That's amazing. I know. Look at J.B. Hunt. I think it's like almost a double. Yeah. Yeah. Like, forget about A.I. The money apparently is in trucking. Well, how are all for real? How is how the cycle starts? Right. How are you start saying the money's in trucking and then everyone gets. How are the turbines getting to the data centers? How are all. [5:00] Like, right, like we know that there is a lot of demand for physical goods as part of this AI story and the the physical goods have to get to the data center somehow. Right. I think this is part of the story. This is the question. Is this the sort of same rebound that we've seen before or is there maybe something more structural that's happening here? We've also had some recent developments with like the actual supply of truck drivers. Right. Which is also something that clearly impacts capacity. So there's a lot to talk about. There's a lot to talk about. It's time to revisit the trucking market. We have a guest that we've never had on before, but someone really like, someone I've known from the internet for a while who really knows the space very well. We're going to be speaking with Reid Lustolo. He is the chief marketing officer at Truck Parking Club. And so, Reid, thank you so much for coming on OddLots. Joe, Tracy, thanks for having me. Joe, I got to give you credit, man. I said you weren't going to do it, but you did it and you said my name right. So congratulations. Thank you. All right. Test cleared for this episode. Actually, what do you who are you? What's your background? What's the truck parking club and all that? Why are we talking to you? Yeah, sure. So I'm my name is Reed Lucevolo. I have been in freight my entire career which at this point is is a feels like a long and short 10 years at the same time started out of college at a freight brokerage echo is a large large freight brokerage top five freight brokerage, then spent some time at a technology company called Trimble did my own thing for a bit. That's where I encountered you on the interwebs three or four years ago, just kind of stirring the pot on Twitter. And then I joined truck parking club about three years ago. and really have been focused on truck parking for the last three years, which we can talk about because that's a trending topic as well. But yeah, I mean, I've been in freight my whole career, and I'm a freight guy, and I now live in Chattanooga, which has been dubbed Freight Alley by Craig Fuller. And yeah, so I'm in it, man. So the parking thing is really interesting here because if you think about a truck or a freight rebound, you think about things actually moving. Yeah. Right. But I'm curious, from your perspective, does a rebound look like more trucks actually having to stop and find parking, like desperately circling for a place, I don't know, around a data center or something like that and trying to find space like is a healthy trucking market What does that look like to a company that is in the truck parking space Yeah sure So you know naturally as demand increases we see more trucks on the road You, Tracy, you kind of talked about a number of the trending topics ahead of this, you know, and you talked about the cyclical nature of trucking and the barrier to entry, if you will. So there's it's a very multivariate market. And truck parking is one of those things that's structurally, it's very difficult to construct new capacity because it's very limited in where you can do it. It's expensive. Many municipalities don't want it. And so there's a bunch of structural reasons why it's difficult to quickly increase the supply in the traditional sense. And what we've done is really just leveraged the existing space. So there's millions of truck parking spaces across the U.S. that are on private property. And we've just built a network, a marketplace to tap into that. So we go to owners, we say, hey, you can make some money parking trucks, comes on our driver's user app, find parking on private property and pay the owner. So Airbnb sort of style. Yeah, that's what I was just gonna say. It sounds like a 2010s era sharing economy sort of thing, but it makes sense. Exactly, exactly. And here's another thing about trucking, is trucking is from a tech standpoint, is always behind right And so we you know when you operate in the physical world and you in as a fragmented a market as trucking is I mean there nearly a million trucking companies and most of them are you know, the long tail is really, really small, less than 10 trucks. It's slow moving and it's slow to adopt technology. And that's always been the case. And so we're really scaling. And we've really done this at an interesting time because like Tracy said, I mean, coming out of COVID, The market was hot. Freight rates were through the roof. Supply flooded the market because there was indeed a very low barrier to entry. And a lot has happened as a result of that. And technology has really flooded the market, too, I would say, over that same period. And so there's a lot to talk about. So I guess you guys tell me where you want to start. Yeah, well, here, I mean, let's start with like maybe the really simple question and then we'll drill down even further based on how you answer it. But like big picture, this surge that we've seen over the last two or three quarters, whether we're looking at stock prices or maybe more importantly, rates like decompose the drivers, the forces that have pushed these lines higher. Yeah, I mean, so coming out of covid, you know, starting in basically mid 2022, mid to late 2022, we saw rates fall and we were in essentially a three plus. [10:00] year lull. And most folks were saying, most of the talking heads were saying that demand returning was the only thing that was going to drive rates up. Like that was going to be the only thing. But what we've seen in really the last, you know, since the new administration took office, we've seen a massive kind of crackdown on English language proficiency, on non-domiciled CDLs. And there's been, as a result, a lot of capacity has kind of structurally been chopped out of the market. And so supply has really dwindled. And man, to complicate things, there's also been in the last couple months, a Supreme Court ruling, the Montgomery case, which, you know, historically freight brokers who move, I think on average, about 30% of freight volumes, if I'm not mistaken, freight brokers, which are, you know, a critical component to the kind of the freight ecosystem have historically not been liable or have not been held liable for carriers negligence or carriers accidents. Right. And now that's in question. And so there been so many kind of structural things that are really pushing capacity out of the market and also making certain types of capacity come at a premium Right Like safety ratings all of a sudden might matter at carriers now because brokers might be you know there more scrutiny on brokers selection of carriers. And so there's, there's so many kind of like supply things that are affecting the rates and that are kind of structurally affecting the barrier to entry. So that next time there is a demand spike and you are seeing demand spikes in pockets of the market, right? Like Joe, you talked about data centers, right? Flatbed has been booming and data centers have a lot in construction has a lot to do with that. But when you, if you really were to have like a COVID level event where like there was unprecedented demand, I'm not sure the market could bring on as much new capacity as it did, like it did during COVID because there are, you know, fundamental changes to the barrier to entry. And the government has really, really put a lot of, or is working to, I guess I should say, put a lot of barriers in to prevent bad actors coming in, mostly, if you were to kind of look at it from their perspective. So yeah. I want to talk more about the barriers. But just before then, I'm really interested in the supply versus demand question. Are there any empirical things that you can look at to show that capacity is coming out of the market I thinking for instance people used to look at like the spot versus the contracted rate right as one indication of capacity And that started flipping earlier in the year Is that, for instance, an indication that capacity is really getting limited? The data guys will look at the spread between spot and contract rates. I'll give you an anecdote. Yeah, sure. Love it. That's essentially me saying I'm not the biggest data guy. But anyway, anecdote. So I have a buddy who owns a trucking company. He's Ukrainian descent, immigrated here from Ukraine, I think, you know, over a decade ago. And many of his drivers were also Ukrainian. And this is a common story you hear in trucking. There's a many trucking is a very rich ecosystem full of every nationality you can possibly imagine. And they've got their own little network of companies and they've got their own network of drivers. They bring people from their home country. And there's a lot of scrutiny on these folks right now, I should add. right? Because many of them have non-domiciled CDLs, which is a certain type of CDL. And there's been a lot of scrutiny on those. So many of these folks have those CDLs. But despite that, and despite what people are saying about non-domiciled CDLs, there's still some really good companies. And in my days, I worked with a lot of them. So I'm still friends with a lot of them So I was talking to my buddy he a Ukrainian guy And he like look this non CDL ruling means I have to get rid of all of my drivers I have to find all new drivers And of course that means I can hire people who are in my network many of whom have non CDLs So this is a serious thing for many of these companies. And many of these companies are the ones that really do kind of run in the spot market, right? They're the 5, 6, 7, 1, 2, 3 truck carriers, which is, like I said, the vast majority of the total amount of companies. I mean, there's hundreds of thousands of these folks, and they're structurally at a major disadvantage. One, because of not domiciled CDLs, but also, too, because of English language proficiency, which has been another thing the government has really focused on. The DOT, I should say, under Sean Duffy, has really been focusing on, which is, you know, it started from a very natural standpoint. It's like, if you can't read the signs, how can you operate an 80,000-pound vehicle safely? Okay, fair. But naturally, that's also kind of pushed people out of the market, too. And you hear the same thing. I mean, I hear the same thing every day from my friends who own fleets or who are drivers. It's things are tough for them right now. And hiring drivers is difficult right now. And historically, it's been another big issue is driver turnover. I bring it up more issues. [15:00] more rabbit holes. Driver turnover is, you know, at some fleets, it's over 100% a year. It's crazy. It's crazy what goes on in some of these fleets. And when you kind of shrink the supply of drivers, that becomes even crazier. So naturally, that'll mean, you know, better pay for drivers who kind of fit the profile that companies are looking for. But it's just kind of more pot stirring, if you will, that's just further complicating the situation. What if you could use AI to research your investment portfolio and ask, find profitable mid-cap energy companies with growing cash flow? Which AI infrastructure stocks appear undervalued? Or rank stock opportunities based on valuation, growth, and risk? With interactive brokers, you can connect ChatGPT or Claude to your investment portfolio to research investments, analyze your holdings, and uncover potential undervalued opportunities. AI accelerates the research. You can make every investment decision. Open and fund an interactive broker account in minutes at ibkr slash invest Restrictions apply AI integrations provided by third parties IBKR does not verify content generated by AI platforms I'm here with Dr. Steven Rothenberg, a leader in minimally invasive and robotic pediatric surgery at HCA HealthOne's Rocky Mountain Children's, which is known for this expertise. Dr. Rothenberg, how does this approach differ from traditional surgery? So instead of making large incisions, we make tiny incisions and use small scopes and small instruments to affect the same procedures, thereby minimizing the amount of pain that children have postoperatively and the long-term consequences of these long, large incisions in these infants and children. How do you help parents understand the risks and the benefits? So we talk about the specific surgery they need and then the benefits of not having giant incisions that then grow with the children can cause musculoskeletal deformity and increase their pain postoperatively. Learn more about pediatric surgery at HCA Health One, Rocky Mountain Children's. Visit hcahealthone.com forward slash Rocky Mountain Children's. Okay not so fun fact Autoimmune skin conditions are actually on the rise Cases are climbing nearly 20 every year I know terrible opener for a podcast ad But here's the thing, I'm Holly Frey, and our skin exists precisely because of stats like that. Because more people than ever are living with conditions like psoriasis and hydrodinitis suppurativa. and most of them are doing it alone, without answers, without community, without anyone to tell them what the heck is actually going on. You know, not that many people knew about it and I felt kind of alone, like, am I an outcast? That's where we come in. We talk doctors. We talk appointments that are, well, a disappointment. We talk about the flare-ups and the breakthroughs. Then we dive deep into the wild, occasionally gross, always fascinating history of how humans have tried to understand our skin over the centuries. Spoiler alert, we did not always get it right. Listen to Season 3 of Our Skin, a personal discovery podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are so many rabbit holes that you have already thrown out, but just going back to one explain the non CDL issue to me because it sounds like again I not a CDL expert but just based on the name alone if I have a non CDL like couldn I eventually turn that into a normal domiciled CDL That is a great question that I am not the best person to answer. I will be honest about the legality of the CDLs. I think what started all of this was, Joe, you probably and Tracy, maybe you do too. But you know, there's a group on Twitter that we lovingly call ourselves FreightX, right? It's like this little kind of freight ecosystem. And for the last, I would say two plus years, there's been a growing group of people that have been really looking into, like, who are these companies? that have flooded the market? Who are the drivers? What types of CDLs do they have? And one of the most tangible things that I remember was, it was probably a year ago, people started to discover that a lot of CDLs were issued to people with something called no name given as their first name, right? Literally on the... Seems a little bit suspect. Literally on their license, it says like, no name given. And so I think that kind of like, as people started to discover this. And also, you also had many trucking companies being [20:00] registered at like, there was like 200 trucking companies registered to like an apartment in, you know, Signal Hill, California, or like Sheridan, Wyoming. There's like 600 trucking companies registered to a PO box. And so that really kind of started people looking at this. And then the non-dom-celled CDL thing really started to take off, you know, when Sean Duffy and the DOT started, I believe in June of 2025, really kind of honing in on, you know, English language proficiency and non-domiciled CDLs. But I believe non-domiciled CDLs have been around since the mid 80s. And there's and it's not necessarily like, obviously, it's not unlawful, or else they wouldn't be issuing them. But I think there was a lot of scrutiny put on certain states that were just had massive spikes in the issuance of CDLs like California and Minnesota, I believe, were the two kind of biggest in New York were some of the bigger examples where, you know, historically they'd been issuing, you know, X amount of CDLs per year. And then all of a sudden out of nowhere, right around COVID, it was like 10 X. Right. And all the while, you know, that all that all happened in years past and nobody really looked at it. But then in the last year everyone been like OK what really going on there And so that kind of what led to the scrutiny if you will So someone with a non dom CDL has taken a test in the U or at least in theory someone with a non dom CDL. It's not like they're just like, oh, yeah, I took a test back. So non domicile CDLs are for people who are foreign nationals who are not domiciled here, but are legally allowed to work. Yeah. Right. And so if they have the legal authorization to work, Sure. Then they can then they can go and get a non domiciled CDL. But just to establish the CDL part in let's just say in theory, in theory, in theory, the non dom CDL is not someone who is like, oh, I got my trucking license in Ukraine and then I moved to the United States and I'm truck. In theory, the non dom CDL is someone who moved here. In theory, in theory. Right. But when you see a really big spike in the number of issuance of non-DOM CDLs that are way out of historical proportion, the question that might arise for regulators is perhaps the quality of the CDL, etc. Like that's sort of what this source of concern would be. And to go down another rabbit hole, there's been a lot of eyeballs on CDL schools. Yeah there some you know you remember that guy Nick Shirley or whatever like the Leering Center in Minnesota But it like You guys yeah truckers have the same Yeah yeah same thing okay there lots of suspect cdl schools lots of suspect curriculums lots of suspect trainings they essentially been handing out cdls like candy it would seem no no this makes a lot of sense i know obviously the administration sean duffy the secretary of transportation they've talked a lot about this etc like okay how many of these drivers are actually safe and did a proper education, et cetera. But from your perspective, the people that you talk to, it's basically like, no, this is more than just tweets. This is not just, oh, we're looking into this, et cetera. You think there's a clear like on the ground effect from this is real. Oh, 100 percent. 100 percent. And I hear it every day from my friends who own trucking companies. Yeah, 100 percent. OK. And it's been much harder to, you know, capacity has been much tighter. You talk to freight brokers, you know, what used to be, you know, rates have gone up and it's harder to find trucks. So there's only a couple sources for that right now. I guess what I'm getting at with the domiciled versus non-domiciled CDL thing is, would you expect this to be a temporary blip as the administration, you know, scrutinizes some of these foreign drivers but eventually they I don know like maybe they have to go back to school and get relicensed again and then they come back on stream Or is this like a permanent cut in driver capacity in your mind Well I think if I not mistaken the government in March of this year said that essentially non CDLs it not going to be as easy to renew them And so naturally, they'll start to expire and there will be less of them over time. And I mean, who knows? You know, obviously, we can't get a crystal ball out and see what's going to happen in the next election. So who the heck knows what another administration might do or might be able to do? Who knows how permanent any of this is? I mean, anyone's guess is as good as mine on that. It occurs to me that there are sort of two interlinked things that strike me as interesting. So let's say, OK, you have the Ukrainian owned trucking company and a lot of non-dom Ukrainian drivers. And then to your point, though, you know, they're part of a broader network and they might network with Ukrainian freight brokers, et cetera, et cetera. And now you have the Supreme Court ruling, which for the first time opens the door to the possibility of the broker, who traditionally wasn't held liable, would be the [25:00] carrier if there's a major accident caused by them. So it feels to me like this combination, like you could literally obliterate like sort of like whole networks. Like we think of the network as the driver, the truck, et cetera. But the network is also the sort of the capacity as the ecosystem itself. So structurally, this is if this continues down the path it's on right now. And a lot of the pundits, you know, the legal experts I know, I could name a couple have said in the last day that if this all keeps going down this path, this is a serious structural issue for the freight brokerage business model. And if the freight brokerage business model is in trouble, then naturally that means that the long tail of trucking companies who primarily get their freight from freight brokers, they're in trouble too. And so, you know, historically, freight brokers have had to have processes to audit the carriers they set up and audit the carriers they give freight to. And each one has kind of had their own process for that. And that's evolved. And there been a lot of technology that gone into the vetting and compliance side of freight brokerage in the last couple of years mainly because another thing we haven talked about which is the whole rabbit hole is cargo theft Cargo theft has been through the roof since COVID And there been a kind of a huge amount of criminal element like large criminal elements that have come in and are doing everything from spoofing carriers pretending to be carriers to setting up fraudulent entities acting like a normal carrier for a while then figuring out where the good freight is stealing that and then disappearing Oh, wow. I thought you just meant someone like picking a box off the back of the truck or something. No, no, no, no. like I'm talking like mafia type stuff, like crime rings. And that's exploded in the last couple of years. And so as a result of that, freight brokers have been much more scrutinous of who they're hiring. And now, you know, safety, which is kind of the element we're talking about here with regard to the Supreme Court ruling is like, OK, what's a safe carrier? Right. And so far, brokers have really kind of relied on the FMCSA's rating. Right. It's satisfactory, conditional or not rated, right? And so traditionally it's like, okay, I hired a satisfactory carrier. It says on the FMCSA's website, they're satisfactory. That must mean something. Therefore they're good. I'm going to hire them. And they go like there recently there was CH Robinson was involved in a case where they hired a carrier that was satisfactory that had done like 200 plus loads for them and then was involved in a wreck And now they facing like a million judgment right And they're appealing it naturally. But if that, I mean, if that holds true, like the freight broker business model is going to be in serious trouble because the government's not really telling them like clearly, okay, this is a safe carrier. This is the vetting standard. Use this. If you do this, you're covered, right? They're not really doing that. There's a lot of gray areas around this. And that's naturally going to cause a lot of problems for freight brokers. And like I said, the vast majority of these small carriers, and there's hundreds of thousands of these companies, they get their freight from freight brokers because it's difficult for them to go get direct customers. It's traditionally... If I'm a one-truck operator and I walk into Kraft Heinz, Kraft Heinz is going to be like, yo, I'm not giving you freight. I'm going to give freight to the broker who can give me a thousand trucks or, you know, Knight Swift who can give me 10,000 trucks. Yeah. So it's just a very it's a very difficult time. Yeah. This is Tracy. I think like maybe we need to broaden our conception of what capacity means, because we think of it as drivers. We think of it as trucks, et cetera. But if there is a small carrier and it 10 trucks and 10 drivers if they can really like plug into a network that they know then is that even capacity I looking at a headline right now from I guess this is a stat from Roadmaster Group, but they're saying cargo theft jumped 60% last year. That just came out three hours ago. And also there's a New York Times headline saying nearly 11,000 bottles of bourbon were stolen from a Philadelphia warehouse as a result of coordinated cargo theft. It's funny because you and I both just assumed that when you said cargo theft, I thought it was like grabbing boxes. Yeah, like, you know, like in Goodfellas. That's as far as my criminal ambitions can stretch. And then the truck driver is like, please beat me up, right? Do you remember that in Goodfellas? He's like, please beat me up so that my own boss does not think that I stole it. This is on another level. They've targeted Guy Fieri. Guy Fieri had freight stolen. Like all these celebrities in the last like year have like seemingly come out with liquor brands and they're all being targeted to like I think Shaq's like Range Rover got stolen off a car hauler. Like there's there's been all sorts of crazy stuff. But I mean, all jokes aside, like it is crazy. It is crazy what's going on. And seemingly it's only getting worse despite all the scrutiny and all the tech that's been kind of brought in. But Tracy, you did kind of mention something interesting or maybe it was Joe kind of the different. [30:00] types of capacity, right? Like one thing that I'm thinking a lot about, and I'm not a freight broker anymore. So I'm slightly removed, although I did do it for many years. Historically, there's not really been, it's freight's really a commodity. And there's, you know, one carrier versus the other might ask you for more money, but you don't really have a good reason to pay carrier A much more than carrier B. You know, some situations might be like, okay, you know, yeah, I'll give you a couple hundred extra bucks because I know you, I trust you and that's worth it. It's pretty much the same service, right? Like you expect the stuff to go from one place to another. Yeah, yeah. And traditionally it's been viewed as a commodity. But like now that there's this kind of extra scrutiny on the broker's vetting process and the hiring process, like there might start to be a kind of strata of carriers where like they've got the best ratings. They're the safest operators. Like they're able to fetch a premium and brokers might be like, shoot, like I have to pay them more Because I need to check these boxes so that if they get in a wreck, God forbid, I'm as covered as I possibly can be in the event that some billboard attorney tries to sue me for $600 million. Yeah that really interesting So like you could start to see more I guess diversification come into the market or like stratification on rates people paying a premium for certain services or trust I think that would make sense to me if that if that happens. I think that would make sense. The jury's out on if that'll happen. But that makes sense to me. The other thing I want to ask about is just how do people feel about becoming truckers at this particular moment? So rates are up. It seems like the money's there, or at least there's more money there than there used to be a few years ago. But at the same time, we still hear complaints about it's a tough life. You're on the road all the time. The hours are insane. Like maybe you're waiting hours at a port to pick up a load. Hard to find parking. Hard to find parking, clearly. There's a lot to say here. There's a lot to say here. And it's actually interesting because I did just, you know, at Truck Park, we run a survey of all of our driver base basically every week. And I happened a couple of weeks ago to do a survey basically just about like drivers opinions on the state of the industry. Right. Would you recommend this job to a friend? Like, how do you feel about trucking? And anecdotally, I can say that in my discussions with my driver friends, like it seems like morale is at an all time low. that just the anecdotal what I hear from people but structurally I mean what I see kind of in these surveys is like like there a strong sense of nostalgia in trucking Like it was much better then than it is now. Right. You look at like the 70s and 80s when you had Smokey and the Bandit. Yeah. Movies like that. Truckers were like cow. Yeah. Truckers were cowboys. Right. Or explorers or frontiersmen. Right. And they were respected. And it was something that was a desire. It was kind of the last kind of frontier, right? You're out on the road, kind of figuring it out. And now it seems for whatever reason that that kind of ethos has been damaged. And you hear a kind of a lot of just kind of like a mourning of the industry when you talk to drivers. And like, and this manifests itself, like if you go to a truck stop and you just kind of pulled random drivers, I guarantee you that if you ask them, you know, were things better in the past than they are now? And maybe this is just a human thing to a degree, perhaps. So this isn't like a scientific study by any means, but like there is a strong sense that things were better in the past. And I think there's a lot of reasons for that. So, you know, technology for the driver is a bad word traditionally. Yeah. Okay. Because technology for the driver has meant surveillance It meant in cameras surveilling their every move for liability reasons It meant speed limiters It meant electronic logging devices which severely limits their freedom to operate as they see fit on the road. So it's all of these things that have kind of constrained them. And if you think about traditional trucking as freedom on the road, these are all anti-freedom things. And so if the traditional trucker is looking for a job that gives them freedom, they're not finding that as much anymore. And so technology has had a bad rap. And I tend to agree with the driver on that. Like, there's all sorts of reasons why all those things are useful. But like, I can understand why they would feel that way. Yeah, right. If we start from the premise that it's already going to be a lifestyle sacrifice, and you're like, well, okay, it's a lifestyle sacrifice, but there's a paycheck. And everyone makes a lifestyle sacrifice paycheck but if it turned out that is like in the past it was a lifestyle sacrifice plus a paycheck plus a certain culture of as you said freedom and uh this sort of maybe burgers at roadside yeah just like all these like the sort of and then it's just like no it's no longer that it's just the lifestyle sacrifice for the paycheck then that's a different equation [35:00] I'm joined with Dr. Chris Timms, Medical Director of ECPR and Emergency Department ECMO for HCA HealthONE Aurora. Dr. Timms, what is the ECPR and does every patient qualify? eCPR is an advanced form of resuscitation. Instead of relying on traditional CPR, ECMO uses a machine to pull blood out of the body, oxygenate it, and put it back into the body, serving as a complete heart-lung bypass system to support patients in refractory cardiac arrest. We look for patients who collapse suddenly, have received immediate CPR, and have a potentially reversible cause. When those criteria are met, eCPR can dramatically change the outcome. Are many hospitals using eCPR? We were the first and as far as I know, only hospital in Colorado to use eCPR in the emergency department and have had amazing survival rates. Speed must be critical. It is. Having this capability in the ER and working closely with our first responders means we can deliver life-saving treatment faster than ever. Learn more about emergency cardiac care at HCA Health 1 Visit HCA Health 1 Okay not so fun fact Autoimmune skin conditions are actually on the rise Cases are climbing nearly 20% every year. I know, terrible opener for a podcast ad. But here's the thing. I'm Holly Frey, and our skin exists precisely because of stats like that. Because more people than ever are living with conditions like psoriasis and hydrodinitis suppurativa. And most of them are doing it alone, without answers, without community, without anyone to tell them what the heck is actually going on. You know, not that many people knew about it and I felt kind of alone. Like, am I an outcast? That's where we come in. We talk doctors. We talk appointments that are, well, a disappointment. We talk about the flare-ups and the breakthroughs. Then we dive deep into the wild, occasionally gross, always fascinating history of how humans have tried to understand our skin over the centuries. Spoiler alert, we did not always get it right. Listen to Season 3 of Our Skin a personal discovery podcast on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts Delivery. Subject to availability. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. The other thing is, just on the technology front, is for years now we've been hearing that, you know, self-driving trucks are coming down the line. So I imagine if you're a young person thinking about getting a CDL, maybe you're no longer looking at it as a viable long-term career. Yeah, I mean, autonomous is very interesting. It's anyone's guess how long that's going to take to really reach significant levels of adoption. I know there are many companies currently operating autonomous lanes, mostly in Texas. And we do talk to these companies because, you know, one thing people ask is like, OK, like if all the trucks are autonomous, like, do they even need to park? Like, does your business still exist? And so we have a whole one. There's still trailers. Trailers need to be staged Yeah they still have to park right They must do And people forget that there many people are suggesting that they just keep driving forever like they never need to be staged Yeah they still have to park right They must do People forget that there many people are suggesting that they just keep driving forever Like they never need to stop basically Yeah Okay I see All right And they're like, okay, you know, and we've I've got my whole reasons why that's actually not the case. And we're actually kind of in deep conversations with the autonomous companies because autonomous trucks need reliable staging and they need to be able to plug into a network to know that if I arrive at this location, I'm going to have a spot and truck stops and rest do not provide that level of surety at all. Yeah. Right. Like, I honestly do think that of all the trending topics that we've talked about, like a lot of them are really kind of like billboard level things. Shocking, like Guy Fieri's tequila gets stolen. Right. Like cargo theft. Like not the mayor of Flavortown. Right. And but parking is really actually I mean, it is one of the like top issues when you talk to drivers, like if not the top. Like a quality of life issue is what you're saying. Right. It's unbelievable. It's a quality of life issue, but it's also a pay issue, like a significant pay issue. And let me explain. I hinted at ELDs, so electronic logging devices. In 2017, it was either 2017 or 2018, I can't remember now, but the government mandated every truck must have an electronic logging device. So drivers are allowed to operate 14 hours a day, 11 of which... [40:00] allowed to drive. Okay. And there's no moving that around. And if you go over that 11 hours, you're in trouble. It's going to hurt your record. It might increase your insurance premiums. It'll cost you money. It's a problem, right? You do not want to do that. And so naturally what that means is the driver's day is very rigid. You know, I was driving to work this morning on I-75 in Northern Georgia. There's a rest area I pass every day. And every day there's trucks lining the exit ramp of the rest area, like on the highway. And how those trucks end up there is they've got two hours left on their clock. It's 5 p.m. Like they're rolling down the highway. They're trying to go as far as they can because they're paid by the mile. Right. And they don't get that time back if they lose it. And they're trying to get as close to their destination as possible. And what that means is naturally there's a trade off every single day that every driver makes who's driving over the road. It's like, okay, I could park now, but I've got four hours left. Right? Yeah. I can park now and take a spot at the truck stop that's open because it's 3 PM and nobody's parked yet. Or I could keep going down the highway go before more hours and end up in the middle of Atlanta at 8 PM and with nowhere to go Right And so there there a serious cost associated with losing those four hours Right And four hours is a bit of an egregious like that does happen every single day. But even if it's one hour. Right. If you think about the cost to operate a truck, if you think about how many miles you're able to drive in an hour, like you mean, you multiply that across an entire year for a driver or for a fleet, you multiply that across their entire, all of their drivers, like in the cost and the productivity loss go sky high really, really quickly. And historically, there's been not really much fleets or drivers could do about that. Right. And not only is it a pay issue, but it is a quality of life issue to your point, Tracy, like you guys live in New York City. I don't know if you have cars, but parking in New York City, not the easiest place to park in the country. To put it mildly. To put it mildly. Right. And naturally that will mean, you know, if I'm coming into New York and I want to go to a Knicks game and it's two hours before, like I got to be methodical about, okay, I'm going to go here. I'm going to park there. I'm going to get there then. And if that's too much of a pain, I'm not going to go, right? I'm not going to go do that thing. But when you live in rural, you know, Georgia, you don think anything about where you going to park You like oh yeah I be fine Like I just going to go right Then I got a place to park And what truck drivers like my analogy is like truck drivers every single day is like being in New York City in the Super Bowl, the World Series, the NBA Finals, the NHL Finals are all there on the same day and there's nowhere to park at all. And you have to go. And it's going to be a total, it's going to cause you lots of stress. You're going to be like, what the heck am I going to do? Right? And that's every single day. Okay, but explain this. Because America has a lot of roads. It's got a lot of highways, a lot of interstates. Where are all the parks? Like, why do we seem to have a shortage? Maybe it's not even a shortage. Maybe it's misplanning of resting areas for trucks. Why the scarcity? Because it's very the traditional places to park, which are rest areas, which are built by the state or the federal government and truck stops. And those can only go in so many places. Right. Loves and TA and Pilot, like they would love to build more locations, but it's not like you can just put them anywhere, right? There's only so many interstate exits where it's appropriate to put a truck stop in economical because they're super expensive, right? And then rest areas are very, very expensive to build. Like if you look at some of these projects that the government funds it like sometimes it as much as two to per space by the time a project is done It takes years to complete And so structurally it very it just difficult to build capacity. And, you know, between rest areas and truck stops, there's about 700,000 spaces provided by these traditional sources. But there's millions of trucks on the road. Right. And millions of them need a place to park on a daily basis. And so naturally, what you see is if you talk to any driver, 5 p.m. every day, the truck stops full. I talked to an owner operator yesterday who's parked with us. So basically, what we enable them to do is fire up their phone, find a place to park basically no matter what, any time of day, in essentially almost any city at this point. And what the difference that makes for a driver, let me explain. So I talked to an owner operator yesterday. He's parked with us 56 times in the last year. And obviously, he's spending his own hard earned money on that, but he's not just doing that and operating the same way that he would if he were just parking at the truck stop. He's thinking like, okay, like I'm going into Denver and Denver is a hard place to park. It's going to be 7 PM. By the time I get there, I have to deliver at three in the morning in the middle of Denver. I'm going to pay 25 bucks or 30 bucks or 40 bucks to park a mile from my, [45:00] warehouse versus parking 30 miles away at the truck stop and having to negotiate the hours of service requirements to be able to go and leave. And so that money he's spending is position. He's positioning himself properly next to his delivery. He can be there on time. He doesn't have to fight traffic. He's the first one there. He gets empty. And that surety just offers him much more reliable planning. Right. And that just means that just means his life is easier. Right. It's less stressful. He's not driving into New York during the World Series every single day. And that's just an anecdote from a driver. Right. So the key thing, though, just to understand this is a big function of this is the fact that drivers get paid by the mile, not the hour. And so if in the ideal world, you have 11 hours on the road, 11 hours were allowed to be behind the wheel, you're going 60 miles an hour, maybe on average, you cover 660 miles in a day, that's a good day or something like that. If three hours of those are spent waiting in line for something by the side of the road, because you're not sure if there's going to be parking when you hit the 11th hour that three hours of your day they not getting paid That three hours gone That three hours of behind the road time that clocks to your that goes to your maximum that is not compensated yeah yeah that's not compensated and and the fleet loses those productive asset hours too right like there's layers to this and then all this you know you multiply that across the entire trucking market and that's like a serious kind of like throughput issue for the supply chain yeah like i can't emphasize this enough, like still to this day, most people in the industry do not think, oh, they just think, oh, well, this is a problem. We all agree this is a problem. What are we going to do? Oh, well, we need to wait around for the government to allocate enough money and build enough spaces to fix this problem. And that's just not going to happen if we're honest with ourselves. And it makes sense. The government should be investing in this critical infrastructure. It's needed. Great. Do it. Get as much as we can. The drivers need it. The more the merrier. But all the while, we're adding sometimes 1,000, 1,500 new spaces to our network a week. Right? A week. Cool. And so we're at near 90,000. And we're adding more spaces in a week than truck stops build an entire year. Right? And we already have more spaces than the largest truck stop chain Right And soon we have more than all of them combined And soon we have more than all of the public infrastructure combined And that going to just fundamentally reshape how drivers and fleets are able to operate And that might sound hyperbolic to people who don't think about this like I do. But it is a very meaningful change to just the life of a driver. It just really is. And just to the productivity of fleet, the driver's pay, the driver's health, like it touches turnover, it touches cargo safety, it touches all of kind of the hot topics we've talked about. Like it's all connected to this. It's all connected. So I'm getting fired up, guys. I'm getting fired up. We talked a lot about the supply side of the industry. Can we just discuss demand a little bit more? Like on a basic level, what are you seeing from your network? Are you seeing pockets where things are really hot right now, where, for instance, data centers are being constructed and things like that? Yes. You know, the components of the data centers are obviously incredibly expensive. You're talking turbines, you're talking obviously GPUs and all that, and super, super expensive. And naturally, targets for theft. And so we had direct conversations with folks building data centers and are actively working on projects to kind of help them plan Okay we going to stage here We going to stage here Like we need locations here And so we're actively working on that right now. So to answer your question directly, yes, yes, of course, we are seeing, we are seeing pockets of demand and we are seeing, you know, it's, it's, it's interesting because we're just kind of like this. So it's hard to tell like what's seasonal and what's not when you're just kind of like this, no matter what, you know, maybe in two years, like we'll be able to like have much more. Okay. This is like this season, this is that season. But yeah, I mean, the short answer to your question is yes. All right. Uh, read loose the low. Thank you so much for, uh, coming on odd lots for all the trucking episodes we've done. We've actually learned quite a bit more on this one. So really appreciate you taking your time. Yeah. I appreciate you, Joe and Tracy. You guys are, you guys are killing it. Uh, Joe, your Twitter game is strong, man. I, I, uh, I love following you. I always smash like, but thanks. Thanks for having me on. I really appreciate it. Thanks so much, Reed. That was fun. Thanks, guys. Tracy, I'm so glad we did that episode. There's so many interesting, so much interesting texture, maybe is the word. [50:00] to the trucking market that is easy to not really observe if you're just looking at very simple metrics like line going up or how much physical capacity there is in a day. Yeah. I mean, it seems like a lot has changed for sure. It does seem like some of the things we talked about are more structural than cyclical. Right. I mean, again, who knows what the next administration is going to do? But for instance, the Supreme Court ruling saying that brokers can be held liable for dangerous hauls and things like that, that would appear to be something that's going to stick around and possibly affect the industry for years to come. No, it seems like a really big deal. And Reid put it really well. It's like, OK, like maybe there's fewer brokerages in the future, et cetera. But then it's like, OK, you might have drivers and carriers. It's capacity. Right. Maybe it's even safe, well-trained, very fluent in English capacity. but it might not have the scale to sort of plug into whatever that sort of new network or ecosystem looks like in world with fewer brokers isn't really capacity than at that point and then it also means that the freight brokerage game isn always going to be a race to the bottom which i sure there going to be a broker firm out there who complains but like the impression you get is a little bit like you know Yeah And also I think you know one of the things that we both observed when we started doing trucking episodes is why is there still so much humans in the middle? It's because it's not a fungible market in the classic sense. It's very idiosyncratic, kind of like the corporate bond market is the analogy that we use if we have to get even more gradations of safety ratings. By the way, the FMCSA, he said that term, and so I wanted to tell people what it was, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. So it's like if we need more gradations of safety ratings for the existing brokerages to feel comfortable with them, I'm going to, having thought about this for five minutes, I will now weigh in on policy. It would be probably helpful if there was one rating where it said, if the broker goes with this rating, they are clear in terms of these sort of nuclear settlements or these nuclear lawsuits, et cetera, that could destroy a whole company. It probably would be good to have, at least on your part, a clear box that you can check that establishes that you done the right thing Credit ratings for freight brokers Yeah And it like if you know it like there are other there are various ways to get in trouble But if you get the AAA carrier if the broker goes with the AAA carrier at least on that level, they've done their due diligence. Nothing bad can ever happen. No, that's right. Ratings. All right. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers. Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armand, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Lots. We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash Odd Lots. And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we do these trucking episodes, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple podcast and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. Hey, it's Sisney for Safeway. It's back to deals time now through August 25th. 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