Andrew Yang Says White-Collar AI Layoffs Force US Toward Basic Income

UBI, AI's Economic + Social Impact, & The Future of Work — Ai4

Ai4

As competitive pressure compels corporations to replace white-collar workers with automation, the state must redistribute concentrated productivity gains through basic income to avert severe social collapse.

AI-assisted summary of UBI, AI's Economic + Social Impact, & The Future of Work — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published:

Detailed notes

## Background Published by Ai4 on YouTube on August 28, 2025, this fireside chat features former presidential candidate and Forward Party founder Andrew Yang in conversation with veteran technology reporter Nancy Scola. According to the description, the session examines how rapid AI automation will transform the economy and redefine human labor, making the case for Universal Basic Income and cash relief as essential foundations for an AI-driven future.

## TL;DR Andrew Yang argues that generative AI is driving an unprecedented wave of white-collar layoffs as competitive enterprise pressures force companies to automate knowledge work. He highlights that while AI will generate hundreds of billions in corporate productivity, macroeconomic growth means little to displaced workers without structural dividend mechanisms like Universal Basic Income and expanded Child Tax Credits. Pointing to eroding institutional trust and generational disaffection, Yang warns that the nation faces a stark choice between proactive policy adaptation or chaotic social collapse, framing the technological future as a crossroads between shared abundance and extreme inequality.

## Atmosphere & style The session balances dry, self-deprecating humor with a sobering, urgent appraisal of the American economic and political landscape. Yang's delivery is conversational and candid, mixing behind-the-scenes anecdotes from corporate boardrooms and campaign stops with sharp critiques of political inertia and pop-culture analogies. Scola's direct questioning keeps the dialogue grounded, creating a fast-paced, pragmatic, and thought-provoking exchange about an impending societal turning point.

## Key takeaways - [01:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=80s) Unlike previous waves of automation that decimated blue-collar manufacturing, modern AI directly threatens the roughly 35% of the US workforce in white-collar and office roles. - [03:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=221s) Massive corporate spending on AI infrastructure is already causing quiet hiring freezes and rolling layoffs, masking economic weakness under job growth concentrated in healthcare. - [06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=377s) Federal AI policy largely misses the immediate crisis by prioritizing deregulation and perceived model bias over the displacement of millions of workers. - [06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=377s) Corporate executives privately acknowledge that AI will enable them to slash workforce headcount while increasing corporate profitability and stock values. - [09:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=586s) Universal Basic Income is essential to prevent AI productivity gains from flowing solely into corporate balance sheets at the expense of displaced workers. - [09:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=586s) Public anxiety around technological progress is driven by the rational realization that everyday citizens will not benefit from AI efficiencies without an ownership stake or dividend mechanism. - [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) Humanity Forward proved the viability of direct cash transfers by helping secure the federal Child Tax Credit expansion, distributing approximately $80 billion annually to families. - [14:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=894s) The adoption of basic income mechanisms is an inevitability under AI acceleration; the only choice is whether the transition happens proactively or through social crisis. - [16:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=960s) Unmitigated economic dislocation erodes institutional trust and degrades essential social traits like conscientiousness and agreeableness among younger generations. - [17:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1071s) Competitive market dynamics force individual companies to adopt AI to survive, shifting the responsibility for protecting displaced labor entirely onto government policy. - [19:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1169s) AI has the potential to eliminate baseline resource scarcity and boost per capita GDP, but avoiding dystopian inequality requires deliberate policies to share technological abundance.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=4s) Political Dysfunction and the Need for a Third Party

Technology reporter Nancy Scola opens the discussion by highlighting the unprecedented intersection between artificial intelligence and national politics, introducing Andrew Yang as someone who has been sounding the alarm on automation far longer than most. Yang immediately leans into self-deprecating humor, recalling how he spent time five years prior at an Iowa truck stop telling voters, "Guys, the robots are coming," before adding dryly, "And obviously that's why I'm president today and things are going so well."

Scola presses Yang on recent news reports detailing discussions between him and Elon Musk’s team regarding third-party efforts, asking why the rapid rise of artificial intelligence necessitates an alternative political party. Yang clarifies his view on the American two-party duopoly with a running joke: "the worst number of parties you can have is one. Second worst is two. Third worst is three," leaving the audience to judge whether the United States currently has any functional political parties at all.

[01:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=80s) The Anatomy of the American Workforce and the AI Wave

Yang traces his entry into presidential politics back to 2016 and 2017, when he recognized that the automation of roughly 4 million manufacturing jobs across key swing states—Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—had directly paved the way for Donald Trump's victory. When he went to Silicon Valley to urge tech leaders to alert the public that AI was about to hit the country "like a freight train," tech executives unanimously declined to be the public messengers. Yang realized he would have to make the case himself.

To illustrate why modern AI will disrupt the country even more severely than past automation, Yang outlines the fundamental structure of the US labor market:

- **Educational attainment:** Only about 35% of Americans graduate from college; two-thirds of the population hold only a high school diploma. - **Top 5 occupations (broadly representing half of the entire US workforce):** 1. Clerical and administrative support (including roughly 2 million call center workers). 2. Retail sales. 3. Food preparation and food service. 4. Truck driving and transportation. 5. Manufacturing.

While manufacturing was decimated over several decades, Yang points out that the current AI wave is directly targeting office workers and the 35% of college graduates whose positions are evaporating at rapid speed.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Labor Force Distribution and Automation Impact A["Total US Labor Force"] --> B["Non-College Educated (~65%)"] A --> C["College Educated (~35%)"] B --> D["Top Blue-Collar & Service Jobs<br/>(Retail, Food Prep, Trucking, Call Centers, Mfg)"] C --> E["Office Workers, Middle Managers & Tech Roles"] D -.->|"Decimated by Blue-Collar Automation"| F["Economic Disruption"] E -.->|"Rapidly Targeted by Generative AI"| F ```

[03:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=221s) The Hidden Job Cuts and Political Inertia

Yang argues that it is absurd to imagine tech companies spending a trillion dollars on AI infrastructure without it having a radical, labor-reducing effect on enterprise operations. For the past nine months, corporate executives have privately confided in him over dinners that they are quietly instituting hiring freezes and executing rolling layoffs because of AI automation. Yang points out that this reality recently surfaced in official economic data when labor numbers for May, June, and July were revised downward, revealing that approximately 75% of newly created jobs were confined entirely to the healthcare sector—largely because hands-on roles like phlebotomists remain difficult to automate.

Instead of preparing society for this structural transformation, the current political system remains entirely inert, focused instead on tribal grievances and partisan point-scoring. Discontented voters who supported Trump seeking economic relief have received policy proposals like sweeping tariffs and the federalization of local Washington, DC police forces—measures Yang argues will only spike consumer prices and devastate trade-dependent agricultural states like Iowa.

[06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=377s) White-Collar Bloodbath and the Failure of AI Policy

Scola points to the Trump administration's AI action plan, which focuses on deregulation, streamlining permits for data centers, and curbing perceived "ideological bias" in artificial intelligence models. Yang responds that these priorities completely miss the real crisis unfolding on the ground. He argues that model bias is immaterial to the 2.8 million call center workers facing immediate obsolescence, the engineering graduates forced to work at Chipotle or drive for Uber, and the 50-year-old middle managers being quietly eliminated across corporate America.

Yang forcefully rejects the contrarian Washington narrative that warnings of a "white-collar bloodbath" are merely marketing hype from AI labs like Anthropic and OpenAI. He shares the recurring script he hears in private from tech leaders:

> "Hey, I'm the CEO of a publicly traded tech company. I've got I'm just going to make up a number 5,000 workers. I've just cut a thousand of them. I think I'm going to cut another 1500 in the next 12 to 18 months and I think my profitability is going to go up and my stock's going to go up. How do I feel about this? Very ambivalent. Like I'm a human being so I dislike firing lots of people, but what are you going to do?"

Yang laments that media commentators downplaying this reality are simply trying to "score points to accrue Substack subscribers," rather than addressing the structural displacement of white-collar labor.

[09:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=586s) The Economic Logic of UBI and "The Future Of"

Making his core case for Universal Basic Income (UBI), Yang emphasizes that the US produces an immense gross domestic product of approximately $82,000 per capita—a metric that AI will boost by hundreds of billions of dollars in pure economic productivity. However, because these productivity windfalls flow straight to corporate balance sheets while workers lose their jobs, society must establish a dividend mechanism to distribute newly generated wealth across the broader public.

Yang illustrates the growing public dread of technological transformation with an anecdote from his tenure at CNN:

- CNN network executives approached Yang to host a television series titled *The Future of with Andrew Yang*, exploring domains like education and transportation. - After running focus groups, the executives returned with the verdict: "Hey, Andrew, bad news. Americans don't like the future." - While focus groups liked Yang personally, the concept of "the future" provoked widespread anxiety because everyday citizens intuitively understand that technological efficiencies will not enrich them unless they own massive equity stakes in tech monopolies.

This dynamic has triggered a widespread "scramble for steady ground" in American life, driving populist agitation and deepening economic division.

[12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) Humanity Forward and the Enhanced Child Tax Credit

When asked if the mainstream emergence of tools like ChatGPT has made Universal Basic Income an easier sell over the past seven years, Yang admits that while citizens frequently approach him on the street saying, "Man, you called it," hearing that provides "cold comfort when someone's like, 'Hey man, you called it.' I'm just like, 'Well, we didn't do shit.'" Asked whether he plans another run for the presidency, Yang remarks that with roughly 30 years left in public life, he is "too young almost not to."

Yang emphasizes that his advocacy extends beyond rhetoric, citing the legislative achievements of his nonprofit advocacy organization, Humanity Forward:

- Humanity Forward spent years lobbying on Capitol Hill to expand the federal Child Tax Credit. - The organization successfully helped secure an expansion that raises payments from $1,000 up to $2,200 per child per year. - This policy directs roughly $80 billion annually into the pockets of struggling, lower-income American families.

Quoting science fiction to explain his motivation, Yang notes that just as "fear is the mind killer in *Dune*", "Poverty is the mind killer in real life."

[14:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=894s) UBI Research and the Two Paths Forward

Scola challenges Yang by citing recent academic literature, including a working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggesting that direct cash transfers showed mixed or limited short-term positive effects on children. Yang pushes back, pointing to long-term longitudinal studies of cash dividends among Native American tribal communities that showed significant, lasting increases in children's conscientiousness and agreeableness. He wryly observes that regardless of academic white papers, if you ask recipient families whether they want the cash support to continue, "They probably would say yes."

Yang concludes that the country will ultimately be forced to adopt basic income mechanisms as the AI revolution compounds economic dislocation. The fundamental choice facing society is not whether basic income happens, but whether the nation arrives there through an enlightened, proactive transition or through a chaotic, destructive crisis.

[16:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=960s) Institutional Trust, Generational Shifts, and the Uphill Battle for UBI

Reflecting on the deeper social fallout of rapid economic dislocation, Andrew Yang warns that much of the societal damage cannot simply be undone once it starts. Comparing the situation to trying to put "toothpaste back in the tube," he points out that once people fall through the cracks and suffer, restoring their faith in institutions or convincing them that doing the right thing will eventually pay off becomes nearly impossible. To illustrate this cultural unraveling, Yang references a study compiled by *Financial Times* data journalist John Burn-Murdoch analyzing generational personality traits, which found that conscientiousness and agreeableness have "gone off a cliff" among younger cohorts. When young people routinely see that positive contributions go unrewarded, their willingness to show up for work shifts or honor commitments deteriorates, placing society "in the soup" when basic social contracts fail.

Yang draws a direct parallel to parenting, noting that raising a child requires imperfect parents to show up every single day, model good behavior, and reinforce values over years in the hope that their children will thrive. Societal institutions—such as public schools, places of worship, and the news media—are supposed to play that exact role for the public. It breaks his heart to see those pillars eroding, leaving him convinced that while Universal Basic Income may eventually be adopted out of sheer necessity, achieving it will require weathering a painful and arduous transition.

- **Generational Trait Collapse**: Citing John Burn-Murdoch's reporting in the *Financial Times*, personality indicators like conscientiousness and agreeableness have plummeted among young people who feel hard work and reliability no longer provide tangible security. - **Institutional Erosion**: Schools, religious institutions, and the media are struggling to perform the steady, long-term societal role modeling essential for civic health.

---

[17:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1071s) Competitive Pressure on Organizations and Dario Amodei's Warning

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Individual Enterprise AI Dilemma A["Enterprise AI Dilemma"] --> B["Option 1: Resist AI Adoption"] A --> C["Option 2: Aggressive AI Adoption"] B --> D["Crushed by AI-Powered Competitors"] D --> E["Business Fails & All Workers Fired"] C --> F["Drives Operational Efficiency"] F --> G["Forces White-Collar Displacements"] G --> H["Macro Policy & Taxation Needed"] ```

Opening the floor to audience questions, Ron Schmelzer from *Forbes* asks what path businesses and international organizations should take regarding AI adoption, development, and regulation given that the technology is already out in the wild. Yang distinguishes between the realities of running a business and the role of government policy makers. For individual companies, adopting AI is a matter of pure survival in a competitive market: refusing to implement automation to protect headcount simply guarantees that an AI-powered competitor will run them out of business, resulting in every single employee losing their job anyway. Yang notes that while he has strong opinions on what public policy should dictate, he cannot fault corporate leaders who are forced into this dilemma.

Addressing tech industry motives, Yang defends Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei against critics who claim AI leaders hype automation risks purely to serve their own corporate interests. He highlights that Amodei has openly sounded alarms about AI devastating white-collar professions and went so far as to call for higher corporate taxes on tech firms—an explicit policy stance that traditional CEOs do not take unless they harbor genuine, deep-seated concern about the structural crisis ahead.

- **Market Imperative**: Organizations that refuse AI integration face competitive extinction, shifting the burden of safety nets and transition policies entirely onto the state. - **Corporate Stance on Taxation**: Tech leaders like Anthropic's Dario Amodei have broken corporate orthodoxy by publicly endorsing higher taxes to address white-collar displacement.

---

[19:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1169s) Growing the Pie: Technological Abundance, Star Trek vs. Mad Max, and 2028

An audience member asks whether AI adoption can expand the overall economic pie rather than merely driving cost-cutting and efficiency gains at the expense of workers. Yang agrees that while individual enterprises remain laser-focused on bottom-line efficiency, the technology will supercharge innovation on a massive societal scale. AI promises unprecedented breakthroughs, such as extending the human lifespan by finding cures for multiple forms of cancer and Alzheimer's disease, as well as unlocking scalable, sustainable energy systems. However, he cautions that macroeconomic abundance means very little to an individual worker sitting at home without an income, watching their family struggle with depression and financial ruin.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Divergent Futures of Abundance A["AI Innovation & Productivity"] --> B["Potential Abundance ($100k-$180k per capita)"] B --> C["Cooperative Evolution: Star Trek"] B --> D["Inequality & Resource Conflict: Mad Max"] ```

Yang closes with a vision of potential post-scarcity prosperity, urging the audience to imagine an economy generating $100,000 or $180,000 per capita. For the first time in human history, artificial intelligence could eliminate baseline resource scarcity, leaving humanity with a fundamental choice: evolve cooperatively into an era of shared abundance or tear itself apart. As Yang puts it, "I vastly prefer *Star Trek* to *Mad Max* as a future I'm going to leave for my kids." Moderator Nancy Scola playfully caps off the session by asking if he plans to run for president in 2028, to which Yang jokingly replies that he cannot make an official announcement on stage before thanking the room.

- **Transformative Milestones**: Expected AI dividend includes breakthroughs in cancer therapies, Alzheimer's eradication, and clean energy infrastructure. - **The Abundance Paradigm**: The economic output could surge to $100,000–$180,000 per capita, transforming humanity's primary challenge from managing resource scarcity to preventing social collapse amidst unprecedented wealth.

## Notable quotes > [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=4s) Guys, the robots are coming — Andrew Yang

> [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=4s) And obviously that's why I'm president today and things are going so well. — Andrew Yang

> [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=4s) the worst number of parties you can have is one. Second worst is two. Third worst is three — Andrew Yang

> [06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=377s) Hey, I'm the CEO of a publicly traded tech company. I've got I'm just going to make up a number 5,000 workers. I've just cut a thousand of them. I think I'm going to cut another 1500 in the next 12 to 18 months and I think my profitability is going to go up and my stock's going to go up. How do I feel about this? Very ambivalent. Like I'm a human being so I dislike firing lots of people, but what are you going to do? — Andrew Yang

> [09:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=586s) Hey, Andrew, bad news. Americans don't like the future. — CNN network executives

> [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) Man, you called it — Voters / Citizens

> [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) Well, we didn't do shit. — Andrew Yang

> [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) Poverty is the mind killer in real life. — Andrew Yang

> [14:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=894s) They probably would say yes. — Andrew Yang

> [19:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1169s) I vastly prefer Star Trek to Mad Max as a future I'm going to leave for my kids. — Andrew Yang

## Mentioned Andrew Yang, Nancy Scola, Forward Party, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Silicon Valley, Chipotle, Uber, Anthropic, OpenAI, Dario Amodei, CNN, Humanity Forward, Dune, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Financial Times, John Burn-Murdoch, Ron Schmelzer, Forbes, ChatGPT, Star Trek, Mad Max

## Video description Nancy Scola, veteran technology reporter Andrew Yang, Former Presidential Candidate, Bestselling Author, Founder, Forward Party

Abstracts How will AI transform our economy — and what happens to people when the robots come for our jobs? In this talk, I’ll explain why Universal Basic Income (UBI) is not just a policy idea, but a necessary foundation for an AI-driven future that works for everyone. I’ll share how accelerating automation will reshape industries, redefine the value of human work, and demand bold, practical solutions to keep communities strong and families secure. You’ll hear real-world lessons from my presidential campaign, Humanity Forward’s cash relief efforts, and my ongoing work to modernize democracy through the Forward Party. Join me to explore how we can balance innovation with economic dignity — and walk away ready to shape a future where AI helps us all thrive.

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY)

中文简报

杨安泽称白领AI裁员潮倒逼美国走向基本收入 随着竞争压力迫使企业用自动化取代白领员工,国家必须通过基本收入重新分配集中的生产力红利,以避免严重的社会崩溃。 杨安泽指出,企业间的竞争压力迫使公司将知识工作自动化,生成式AI正掀起一场前所未有的白领裁员潮。他强调,尽管AI将为企业带来数千亿美元的生产力提升,但若缺乏全民基本收入(UBI)和扩大儿童税收抵免等结构性红利机制,宏观经济增长对被替代的劳动者来说毫无意义。鉴于机构信任度日趋瓦解以及代际不满的蔓延,杨安泽警告称,国家正面临前瞻性政策调整与混乱的社会崩溃之间的严峻抉择,并将技术的未来视作共享繁荣与极端不平等之间的十字路口。 与过去冲击制造业的自动化不同,现代 AI 正直接威胁占全美约 35% 拥有大学学历的白领与办公室群体;巨额 AI 基础设施投资正悄然引发广泛的招聘冻结与持续裁员。 (1:20) 当前的联邦 AI 政策过于聚焦去监管与模型偏见,脱离了数百万普通员工技术性失业的现实;企业高管私下坦言,通过自动化裁员提高利润与股价已成为行业常态。 (6:17) 公众对技术转型的广泛焦虑源于普通人无法享有 AI 带来的生产力红利;全民基本收入(UBI)是应对失业冲击的必然手段,核心区别仅在于社会是主动建立保障机制还是因危机爆发而被动应对。 (9:46) AI 的生产力跃升有望将人均经济产出推高至 10 万至 18 万美元,人类面临的根本抉择在于通过协同分配迈向共享繁荣的《星际迷航》式未来,还是滑向资源极度分化的《疯狂的麦克斯》式危机。 (19:29)

Reading summary

Andrew Yang argues that rapid advancements in artificial intelligence will decimate white-collar and administrative employment while concentrating corporate profits, making Universal Basic Income an unavoidable mechanism to prevent widespread social and institutional collapse. Workforce Vulnerabilities and the Generative AI Shock (1:20) While past waves of automation eliminated approximately 4 million manufacturing jobs across industrial swing states, Yang emphasizes that generative AI directly threatens the 35% of Americans who hold college degrees alongside millions in administrative roles. The US labor market remains heavily concentrated in vulnerable positions, with its top occupations including roughly 2 million call center staff, retail clerks, food service workers, and drivers, while approximately two-thirds of the population holds only a high school diploma. Yang contends that massive corporate investments in AI infrastructure are already driving rolling layoffs and quiet hiring freezes. Official labor statistics reflect this shift: recent revisions revealed that roughly 75% of newly added jobs were confined to hands-on healthcare roles, such as phlebotomists, which currently resist technological automation. Market Pressures and Misguided Federal Policy Responses (6:17) At the enterprise level, Yang observes that business leaders face an existential dilemma: refusing to implement AI automation guarantees defeat by leaner competitors, ultimately endangering every employee's job. He rejects claims that white-collar displacement warnings are mere marketing hype, citing private admissions from executives planning deep workforce cuts to increase profitability. He also notes that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has broken corporate norms by publicly calling for higher corporate taxes to help mitigate workforce displacement. Despite these market pressures, Yang argues that current political proposals remain counterproductive. Policies prioritizing model-bias investigations, data-center deregulation, or sweeping tariffs fail to address the core dilemma facing displaced corporate middle managers, underemployed graduates, and the 2.8 million call center workers facing obsolescence. The Economic Rationale for Universal Basic Income (9:46) With US gross domestic product standing at approximately $82,000 per capita, Yang asserts that AI productivity gains will direct hundreds of billions of dollars to corporate bottom lines without naturally reaching dislocated workers. To prevent a widespread economic panic, he advocates for direct wealth distribution through basic income. Citing progress by his organization, Humanity Forward, Yang points to federal Child Tax Credit expansions from $1,000 to $2,200 per child, which directed $80 billion annually to lower-income households. Addressing mixed short-term findings on direct cash transfers from a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, Yang points to longitudinal studies of cash dividends among Native American tribes. Those findings showed sustained, long-term increases in children's conscientiousness and agreeableness, reinforcing his view that sustained liquidity provides essential structural stability for families. Institutional Decay and the Scarcity-Abundance Dilemma (16:00) Beyond labor metrics, Yang warns that prolonged economic dislocation causes irreversible cultural damage. Referencing data compiled by the Financial Times, he highlights that personality traits like conscientiousness and agreeableness have dropped precipitously among younger generations who see that diligence no longer guarantees stability, while foundational institutions like schools and media lose their civic authority. Yang suggests that while AI could theoretically elevate economic productivity to $100,000 or $180,000 per capita and yield breakthroughs in energy and medicine, abundance at the top does not resolve individual hardship. Society faces a stark choice between a cooperative, post-scarcity economy and extreme inequality and unrest. Yang concludes that the adoption of Universal Basic Income is an eventual certainty under AI-driven automation, leaving unresolved only whether the nation will implement it through proactive, orderly policy or in the wake of an acute economic crisis.

精炼阅读摘要

前美国总统候选人Andrew Yang指出,人工智能正在对占美国劳动力35%的大学毕业生及办公室白领发起全面冲击,加剧社会契约与制度信任的瓦解;鉴于企业出于生存竞争必然加速自动化,政府必须通过全民基本收入等财富再分配工具应对分配危机。 白领就业冲击与劳动力市场紧缩 (1:20) Yang回顾指出,2016至2017年间关键摇摆州约400万制造业岗位的自动化直接助推了政治格局剧变,而当下的AI浪潮正直接冲击高等学历群体与办公室职能。目前全美仅约35%的人口拥有大学学历,文书与呼叫中心(约200万人)、零售、餐饮、卡车运输和制造五大类基础职业构成了美国劳动力的半数。与蓝领自动化历经数十年演进不同,生成式AI正以极快速度侵蚀初级工程师、中层管理人员和文秘岗位。 Yang强调,科技巨头在AI基础设施上投入数万亿美元,其核心商业逻辑必然是削减企业运营用工。尽管政界与部分媒体将白领危机视作炒作,但多位科技上市公司高管已在私下沟通中证实了滚动式裁员与招聘冻结计划。美国官方对5月至7月就业数据的向下修正印证了劳动力市场的疲软,新增就业中约75%高度集中在难以自动化的医疗护理领域(如放血医师),而大批工程毕业生已被迫流向快餐店或平台零工岗位。 科技红利分配与全民基本收入逻辑 (9:46) Yang指出,美国目前人均国内生产总值(GDP)约为82,000美元,AI的应用将在宏观层面创造数千亿美元的纯生产力增量。然而,技术带来的超额收益正直接回流至科技巨头的资产负债表,普通民众由于缺乏股权而无法受益。Yang援引其在CNN期间的节目调研经历说明,公众对技术“未来”的普遍抵触,源于他们直觉意识到技术繁荣只会加剧自身生计的脆弱性,进而激化民粹情绪与社会撕裂。 为阻断这一失衡趋势,Yang主张通过全民基本收入(UBI)建立社会分红机制。他领导的倡导组织Humanity Forward此前推动国会扩大联邦儿童税收抵免,使单童年抵免额提升至2,200美元,每年向低收入家庭注入约800亿美元。针对美国国家经济研究局(NBER)工作论文对直接现金补助成效的质疑,Yang反驳指出,原住民部落长达数十年的分红纵向研究证明,持续的经济兜底显著改善了儿童的尽责性与宜人性,物质匮乏本身才是抹杀人类心智的主要根源。 制度信任侵蚀与青年代际价值观断层 (16:00) Yang警告称,经济动荡带来的社会撕裂如“挤出的牙膏”,一旦形成便极难逆转。他援引《金融时报》(Financial Times)数据记者John Burn-Murdoch对代际人格特质的研究指出,年轻群体的尽责性(conscientiousness)与宜人性(agreeableness)指标近期出现断崖式下跌。当年轻一代目睹诚实劳动与守信不再能换取基本的生活保障时,他们对工作责任和契约的承诺度随之瓦解。 Yang将社会健康维系比作家庭教育,指出公立学校、宗教机构和新闻媒体等支柱原本应承担长期的价值引导与榜样职能,但这些核心制度正在普遍失灵。他认为,青年群体对社会晋升阶梯的幻灭预示着底层社会契约的瓦解,这种文化与道德创伤将使未来基本保障机制的推行面临更为艰难的阵痛期。 企业竞争宿命与宏观税收政策转向 (17:51) 在谈及商业组织的应对路径时,Yang区分了微观企业决策与宏观公共政策。对于身处激烈市场竞争中的单个企业而言,引入AI实现效率提升关乎企业生死存亡;若企业因保护岗位而拒绝采用AI,最终将被竞品淘汰并导致全员失业。因此,不能将失业责任归咎于微观管理层,解决失衡的唯一途径在于国家层面的宏观税收与再分配政策。 针对行业借炒作风险进行自我营销的指责,Yang以Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei为例进行了辩护。Amodei不仅公开向社会预警白领职业即将面临的破坏性打击,更主动呼吁对科技企业征收更高额的税收。Yang认为,跨国科技公司高管主动要求加税的反常举动,证明技术界内部已经意识到自动化危机绝非虚构,必须依赖国家政策提供转型安全网。 Yang总结预测,随着AI在癌症疗法、阿尔茨海默病治疗和清洁能源领域催生突破,宏观经济产出有望跃升至人均10万至18万美元,人类将首次具备消除基础资源匮乏的生产力条件。然而,宏观繁荣无法自发抚平失业个体的贫困与绝望,社会终将面临走向协作共享(“星际迷航”模式)还是资源冲突(“疯狂的麦克斯”模式)的路线抉择,而现行两党体制的党派内耗正严重阻碍国家采取前瞻性转型应对。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 本视频由 Ai4 频道于 2025 年 8 月 28 日发布在 YouTube 平台上。内容为资深科技记者南希·斯科拉(Nancy Scola)与前美国总统候选人、前进党(Forward Party)创始人杨安泽(Andrew Yang)的深度对谈,围绕 AI 对未来工作、经济与社会的深远影响,探讨全民基本收入(UBI)作为应对自动化浪潮与重塑社会尊严的核心必要性。 ## TL;DR 杨安泽指出,AI 自动化浪潮正从早期的蓝领制造业加速蔓延至文职、客服及高学历白领阶层,而现行的两党政治体制对此表现出极大的迟钝与失能。在企业为了生存被迫借助 AI 降本裁员的背景下,唯有依靠政策层面的二次分配与全民基本收入(UBI),才能有效化解技术红利向极少数人集中的不对称危机。他分享了团队在推动扩大版儿童税收抵免等现金救济政策上的实际成果,强调贫困与不安全感正在侵蚀社会的信任契约。最终,AI 的生产力爆发将人类推向告别匮乏的关口,社会必须在共享繁荣的《星际迷航》式愿景与极端割裂的《疯狂的麦克斯》式困境之间做出抉择。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对话节奏轻快且充满幽默感,杨安泽以极具亲和力的自嘲、竞选轶事与行业内幕迅速拉近与观众的距离。现场在冷峻严酷的就业警示与振奋人心的科技愿景之间形成了引人入胜的张力,既直面中产阶层生计瓦解的现实阵痛,又饱含对人类摆脱物质匮乏的坚定信念。主持人与嘉宾的互动默契风趣,结尾关于科幻隐喻与未来大选悬念的探讨更是让全场在欢笑与深层反思中达到高潮。 ## Key takeaways - [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=4s) 传统两党政治体制在面对快速的技术变革时陷入僵局与失能,难以应对 AI 对经济结构的深远冲击,因而催生了建立第三政党以推动系统性改革的需求。 - [01:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=80s) 自动化曾消除美国关键摇摆州约 400 万个制造业岗位并深刻改变了政治版图;如今生成式 AI 正在将这一冲击从蓝领蔓延至占人口 35% 的大学毕业生与白领群体。 - [01:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=80s) 科技与企业界在 AI 领域投入了上万亿美元,众多企业 CEO 私下已开始因 AI 停止招聘并逐步裁减白领与初级工程师岗位以保证利润率和竞争力。 - [06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=377s) 政府的 AI 政策重心往往错位在基建审批与模型意识形态偏见等议题上,忽视了呼叫中心客服、大学毕业生以及科技公司中层管理者所面临的迫切失业危机。 - [09:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=580s) 全民基本收入(UBI)的核心逻辑在于从 AI 和自动化创造的巨额生产力增量中抽取部分价值,广泛回馈给未能直接持有科技资产的大多数普通民众。 - [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) 通过 Humanity Forward 推动的“扩大版儿童税收抵免”每年为困难家庭注入约 800 亿美元,有效验证了直接向家庭发放现金兜底能够有效缓解贫困这一“思维杀手”。 - [14:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=894s) 当年轻一代努力工作的良好行为无法在现有体制下获得正向反馈时,社会的道德契约与制度信任将面临严重瓦解且极难修复。 - [17:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1071s) 面对 AI 浪潮,个体企业出于生存竞争必须采用 AI 并削减成本,因此防范社会动荡的二次分配与底线保障职责必须由政府政策来承担。 - [18:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1138s) 如 Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 呼吁对 AI 企业加税所展现的,头部科技领袖对技术替代就业带来的社会负面冲击怀有真实的深切担忧。 - [19:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1168s) AI 有望在医学与清洁能源领域带来划时代突破并将人均 GDP 提升至新高度,但若缺乏合理的分配机制,宏观的技术繁荣无法拯救陷入绝境的失业个体。 - [20:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1239s) 人类正站在告别物质匮乏的历史拐点,关键抉择在于建立普惠共享机制走向《星际迷航》式的繁荣,还是因分配不均滑向《疯狂的麦克斯》式的分化与冲突。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=4s) 政治僵局与第三政党:AI 时代的政治新逻辑 资深科技记者南希·斯科拉(Nancy Scola)在开场时指出,当前正处于科技与政治、尤其是人工智能与政治深度交织的引人注目的时期,而前总统候选人、前进党(Forward Party)创始人安德鲁·杨(Andrew Yang,杨安泽)是探讨该议题的绝佳人选,因为他在该领域的呼吁比绝大多数人都要早。杨安泽风趣地回忆起自己五年前在爱荷华州卡车驿站向工人们大声疾呼“机器人们要来了”的场景,并自嘲道:“显然这就是为什么我今天成了总统,而且一切都进展得如此顺利。” 针对近期媒体报道关于杨安泽与埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)及其团队就创建第三政党进行接触的消息,斯科拉询问杨安泽:他在 2021 年脱离民主党创立了前进党,为何 AI 的崛起会催生出建立第三甚至第四政党的必要性?两者之间存在怎样的互动逻辑? 杨安泽幽默地调侃了政党数量的悖论:“最糟糕的政党数量是一个,第二糟糕的是两个,第三糟糕的是三个……至于我们现在到底有几个能发挥实际作用的政党,大家可以自行判断,有人甚至会说是零个。”他以此点出传统政治体制在应对技术变革时的无力与停滞。 --- ### [01:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=80s) 自动化浪潮从蓝领蔓延至白领:被重塑的美国劳动力市场 杨安泽阐明了自己投身公共政治生活的根本原因。在他看来,唐纳德·特朗普在 2016 年获胜的核心推手,是美国自动化消灭了约 400 万个主要分布在俄亥俄、密歇根、宾夕法尼亚和威斯康星等关键摇摆州的制造业岗位。选区数据清晰显示,一旦制造业工厂或就业根基被拔除,该选区的政治版图便迅速向共和党的“红色”倾斜。早在 2017 年左右,他在硅谷的朋友们就在研发被称为 AI 的技术,这项技术即将夺走更多普通人的饭碗。当他试图劝说硅谷大佬们站出来向美国公众发出预警时,得到的全都是“别找我”的推脱,这促使他决定亲自参选并向科技界筹集资金来向公众敲响警钟。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 从制造业自动化到白领AI替代的发展路径 subgraph Phase1["第一阶段:制造业自动化(2016年前后)"] A["自动化削减400万制造业岗位"] --> B["铁锈带摇摆州经济受损"] B --> C["政治版图向红转、特朗普胜选"] end subgraph Phase2["第二阶段:生成式AI与白领冲击(当前阶段)"] D["企业投入上万亿美元发展AI"] --> E["波及占人口35%的大学毕业生群体"] E --> F["白领、客服与初级工程师岗位萎缩"] end Phase1 -.-> Phase2 ``` 杨安泽进一步梳理了美国当前的劳动力构成: - 美国仅有约 35% 的人口拥有大学学历,其余近三分之二最高学历仅为高中毕业。 - 美国经济中最常见的五大职业(涵盖约半数劳动力): 1. **文职与行政人员**(包含约 200 万呼叫中心客服人员); 2. **零售业岗位**; 3. **餐饮与食品制备**; 4. **卡车司机与交通运输**; 5. **制造业工人**。 杨安泽指出,过去数年美国制造业劳动力已被严重削弱,如今同样的命运正降临在占人口 35% 的大学毕业生和办公室白领身上。如果科技界与工业界投入了整整一万亿美元于 AI,却不对公司运营产生实质性削减,在商业逻辑上是完全荒谬的。过去九个月中,众多企业 CEO 私下向他坦承:“因为 AI,我停止了招聘,并且正在悄悄裁员。”这种就业市场的寒意已经开始在宏观数据中显现:近期下调的 5 至 7 月非农就业数据中,高达 75% 的新增岗位仅仅来自医疗护理行业(如目前仍难以被机器替代的抽血医师),传统白领就业正在快速蒸发。 --- ### [04:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=274s) 经济海啸与政治失能:两党体系的迟钝与关税困境 面对席卷美国经济的自动化海啸,现行的政治体制表现出极度的迟钝与麻木。两党体系陷入了基于部落主义和意识形态争夺眼球的恶性循环,根本无法应对真正的结构性危机。大量选民因经济处境恶化而将选票投给特朗普,但最终换来的却是关税政策和针对华盛顿特区警察系统的联邦干预等无济于事的措施。 杨安泽批评称,关税不仅推高了物价,还重创了依赖贸易的产业岗位。例如在他在 2020 年大选期间深入走访的爱荷华州,当地高度依赖农产品出口贸易的农业经济就因关税承受了巨大打击,而该州正是投票支持特朗普的红州。劳动力流失的下行螺旋、失能的政治体系,再加上充斥党派偏见、不愿探究经济实质的媒体工业复合体,使整个国家陷入恶性循环。杨安泽强调,现存的两个传统建制党派都不可能拯救大家,真正的解决方案必须来自双头垄断的“两党体系之外”。 --- ### [06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=377s) 白领裁员风暴与政策错位:AI 时代的现实冲击 针对特朗普政府随后推出的 AI 行动计划(侧重于放宽数据中心审批许可、解决所谓 AI 模型中的“意识形态偏见”等措施),杨安泽指出了执政方在政策优先级上的严重错位。他认为,相较于模型的言论倾向或电力基建审批,当下最紧迫的危机在于数以百万计的生计问题: - 面临快速被淘汰风险的 **280 万呼叫中心客服**; - 刚毕业便遭遇就业冰河期、手握工程学学位却只能在 Chipotle 餐厅卷煎饼或开 Uber 的年轻大学生; - 近期在大规模裁员中失去生计的高学历科技公司中层管理者。杨安泽直言,虽然大众对“一位 50 岁失业高管”的同情心远不如底层劳工,但这同样是背负家庭重担的真实个体,乘以几十万后便是巨大的社会震荡。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 政府政策焦点与实际劳动力危机对比 subgraph PlanFocus["政府行动计划侧重点"] P1["放宽数据中心许可"] P2["消除模型意识形态偏见"] end subgraph RealCrisis["杨安泽指出之核心危机"] C1["280万呼叫中心人员面临裁员"] C2["工程系毕业生被迫从事零工"] C3["科技企业中层管理者遭遇裁减"] end PlanFocus -. 政策错位 vs 现实需求.-> RealCrisis ``` 对于华盛顿某些智库和评论家声称“白领大屠杀(white collar bloodbath)只是 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 为夸大自身工具威力而炒作的过度恐慌”的观点,杨安泽予以了严厉驳斥。他分享了自己与多位上市科技公司 CEO 的真实晚餐对话: > “一位管理着 5,000 名员工的上市科技公司 CEO 对我说:‘我已经裁掉了 1,000 人,未来 12 到 18 个月内我还打算再裁 1,500 人。我的利润率会上升,股价也会上涨。我对此感到非常矛盾——作为一个人,我不喜欢解雇大批员工,但面对竞争我别无选择。’” 杨安泽表示,此类对话他已经听过几十次。那些坚称白领裁员是无稽之谈的华盛顿精英几个月后必将被现实打脸,但他们绝不会公开承认错误,因为在当下的舆论生态中,评论家们只在乎如何争夺意识形态积分和吸引 Substack 付费订阅来勉强维生。 以下是根据该段视频字幕整理的详细内容记录与逐节解析: ### [09:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=580s) 全民基本收入(UBI)的核心提案与经济背景 主持人 Nancy Scola 转向讨论应对劳动力市场变化的具体方案,邀请 Andrew Yang 说明他提倡的全民基本收入(UBI)理念。Yang 指出,目前美国的人均 GDP 已达到约 $82,000 美元,随着人工智能技术的加速普及,将为经济生产力带来数千亿美元的增量。然而,这种技术带来的生产力提升存在不对称性:当科技公司的 CEO 裁减上千名员工并以 AI 代替时,企业依然能繁荣运转,而被解雇的工人却陷入困境。因此,UBI 的核心逻辑在于从这些新创造的价值中抽取一部分,更广泛地分发给全体美国民众。 Yang 随后分享了一段在 CNN 工作时的幽默轶事:当时电视台高层计划为他开办一档名为《与杨安泽看未来》(The Future of with Andrew Yang)的节目,涵盖教育与交通等领域的未来发展。然而在焦点小组测试后,高层却遗憾地告诉他:“好消息是美国人挺喜欢你,坏消息是美国人讨厌‘未来’。”Yang 解释道,普通民众直觉上意识到,科技带来的效率提升往往无法让他们受益,因为他们并非科技巨头的大股东。社会中正演变出一种严重的分化——技术红利的受益者财富暴涨,而大多数人则陷入寻找稳定立足点的艰难挣扎中。 - **人均 GDP 数据**:美国目前人均 GDP 约 $82,000 美元,AI 的加入将进一步推高这一数字。 - **利益分化趋势**:科技从业者与高管享受技术红利,普通劳动者则面临就业被挤压的风险。 ### [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) 政治抱负与“扩大版儿童税收抵免”的政策落地 针对 Scola 提出的自 ChatGPT 问世以来 UBI 推广是否变得更容易的问题,Yang 表示如今在街上几乎每天都有人对他说:“兄弟,你当年真的预测对了。”当被问及未来是否会再次竞选美国总统时,Yang 坦言自己还很年轻,在公共生活中至少还有 30 年的打拼时间,而且社会面临的问题并没有好转。虽然听到人们说“你预测对了”时会感到一丝无奈,因为现实改变依然缓慢,但他强调自己和团队在过去五年里一直在积极推进实质性的政策落地。 Yang 详细介绍了团队在推进“扩大版儿童税收抵免”(Enhanced Child Tax Credit)方面取得的重大突破。该政策被成功纳入大型法案中,将有子女的中低收入美国家庭每年获得的儿童税收抵免额度从原先的每孩 $1,000 美元提升至 $2,200 美元。这项政策每年将向困难家庭发放约 800 亿美金。Yang 借用科幻小说《沙丘》中的名言“恐惧是思维杀手”(Fear is the mind-killer)指出:“贫困就是现实生活中的思维杀手。”他表示,能通过 Humanity Forward 团队将这笔资金落实到家庭手中,是他一生中最骄傲的成就之一。 - **政策成果**:Humanity Forward 团队成功推动儿童税收抵免额度从每孩每年 $1,000 美元提高到 $2,200 美元。 - **资金规模**:每年为美国有子女的困难家庭提供约 $800 亿美元的资金支持。 ### [14:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=894s) 关于 UBI 效果的学术争议与社会契约的瓦解 对话转入有关 UBI 影响的最新学术研究。主持人提起美国全国经济研究所(NBER)近期发布的一份工作论文,指出 UBI 在短期内对儿童的积极影响似乎并不显著。Yang 对此回应称,学术界同样存在其他方向的研究,例如针对美洲原住民部落的长期纵向研究显示,给予家庭现金补贴后,儿童的尽责性(Conscientiousness)和宜人性(Agreeableness)有了显著提升。他诙谐地补充道,即便研究结果有所起伏,若询问受资助家庭是否愿意继续领钱,答案毫无疑问是肯定的。 Yang 深层剖析道,社会最终都会走向某种形式的保障机制,关键在于选择“积极、理性、明智的方式”还是“艰难、破坏性极大的方式”。如果等到社会结构严重受损后再去补救,就如同“挤出的牙膏无法装回牙膏皮”一样。他引用了《金融时报》记者 John Burn-Murdoch 关于跨世代人格特质的研究,指出年轻一代的尽责性和宜人性出现了剧烈下滑,原因在于他们努力工作的良好行为不再能得到社会和体制的正面反馈。当社会机构(学校、教会、新闻媒体等)无法继续履行塑造良好示范的职责时,民众对体制的信任便难以修复。 ### [17:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1071s) 观众提问:企业与政策层面应对 AI 冲击的抉择 在现场提问环节,《福布斯》记者 Ron Schmelzer 提出了关于 AI 负面影响及应对方向的问题。他询问面对 AI 这只“已经挤出牙膏皮的怪兽”,企业和国际社会应当如何在应用、开发和监管之间找到出路。 Yang 在回答中区分了“个体企业”与“政策制定者”的不同立场。对于个体企业而言,如果不主动拥抱和应用 AI 技术,就极有可能被采用 AI 的竞争对手击垮;出于善意拒绝裁员的企业,最终可能因公司破产而被迫解雇所有员工。因此,企业顺应技术潮流使用 AI 是市场竞争下的必然选择,而真正的监管与保障职责则必须落在政策制定者和政府的肩上。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI经济冲击与政策应对路径 subgraph Market ["市场竞争逻辑 (企业端)"] A["技术变革 (AI效率提升)"] --> B["企业全面采用 AI"] B -- "拒用 AI" --> C["在竞争中被击败/破产"] B -- "顺应趋势" --> D["生产力大增 / 裁减人力"] end subgraph Impact ["社会与伦理影响"] D --> E["财富向少数股东集中"] D --> F["劳动者失业与信任危机"] end subgraph Policy ["公共政策应对 (政府端)"] F --> G["二次分配机制"] G --> H["全民基本收入 (UBI)"] G --> I["扩大版儿童税收抵免 (800亿/年)"] end ``` ### [18:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1138s) 企业家的真实担忧与向 AI 征税的呼声 杨安泽(Andrew Yang)首先坦言,自己并不责怪那些在私下晚餐中向他透露裁员计划的 CEO 们。他设身处地地表示,如果自己处在那些企业高管的位置上,为了企业的生存和竞争,大概率也会做出同样的选择。针对外界有人质疑像 Anthropic 这样的 AI 公司高管是“出于自身利益在贩卖焦虑、声称正在摧毁白领岗位”,杨安泽直接反驳了这种观点。 他特别提到 Anthropic 首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊(Dario Amodei)的公开发声——阿莫代伊甚至主张“应该对我们征收更多税”。在杨安泽看来,CEO 主动举手要求政府向自己多征税,这绝非出于传统的自私商业利益。他选择相信阿莫代伊的话,认为这些行业领袖确实对技术带来的社会冲击怀有真正的、深切的担忧。 - 很多 CEO 削减白领岗位并非出于恶意,而是受商业竞争和技术演进所迫的必然选择。 - Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 呼吁对 AI 企业加税,表明部分头部科技领袖对失业危机的担忧是真诚的。 ### [19:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1168s) 效率提升 vs. 把蛋糕做大:丰裕时代的社会红利与现实落差 在现场最后的提问环节,有观众指出当前 AI 的落地应用主要集中在提升企业效率上,并询问是否有人在致力于“把整个经济蛋糕做大”,从而让普通人不必担心失去工作。杨安泽对此给出了积极与冷峻并存的回答。他承认短期内多数企业确实只想着如何更高效地完成任务,但从长远来看,AI 必将为全社会带来全方位的红利。 为了给在场的众多 AI 支持者打气,杨安泽以振奋人心的愿景作结:AI 极有可能攻克多种癌症甚至阿尔茨海默病(Alzheimer's),从而延长人类的整体寿命;同时,AI 也将极大增加人类实现可持续能源突破的几率。AI 正在各个维度超级赋能技术创新,为公众创造巨大的潜在价值。然而,杨安泽话锋一转指出现实的残酷面:如果一个普通人失业在家、身无分文,看着自己的孩子陷入抑郁和困境,那么宏观层面的科技突破再辉煌,也根本无法让他们感到兴奋。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI 发展的双重路径:技术丰裕与个体困境 subgraph S1["技术与宏观效益"] A["AI 超级赋能创新"] --> B["医学突破:癌症/阿尔茨海默病治愈"] A --> C["能源转型:可持续能源突破"] B & C --> D["全社会财富与人均产出激增"] end subgraph S2["微观分配与社会选择"] D --> E{"能否建立普惠分配机制?"} E -- "建立底线保障 (UBI)" --> F["《星际迷航》式的丰裕未来"] E -- "分配失衡/个体失业无收入" --> G["《疯狂的麦克斯》式的资源冲突"] end ``` ### [20:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1239s) 《星际迷航》还是《疯狂的麦克斯》:丰裕时代的人类抉择 在演讲的总结陈词中,杨安泽描绘了一个告别“匮乏”的历史拐点。美国目前人均 GDP 大约在 8.2 万美元左右,但在 AI 推动下,未来人均产出完全有可能达到 10 万甚至 18 万美元。这是人类历史上第一次,匮乏可能不再是社会运行的默认规则。 摆在人类面前的核心问题是:我们能否在丰裕时代共同进化,还是会因为分配不均而自相残杀?杨安泽明确表示,留给孩子们的未来,他“绝对更希望是《星际迷航》(Star Trek)的世界,而不是《疯狂的麦克斯》(Mad Max)”。对谈的主持人南希·斯科拉(Nancy Scola)随即借着全场热烈的气氛抛出终极问题,调侃他是否会在 2028 年再次参选总统。杨安泽幽默回应称“我可不能在这里宣布,南希,咱们晚点私下聊”,在一片笑声与掌声中结束了本次对话。 - **丰裕潜能**:AI 有望将经济总量推向人均 10 万至 18 万美元的超高产出阶段,使人类首次具备消除普遍匮乏的技术条件。 - **未来形态抉择**: - **《星际迷航》(Star Trek)愿景**:技术繁荣、物质丰裕、人类共享尊严与探索未来。 - **《疯狂的麦克斯》(Mad Max)困境**:资源分配断裂、社会极端分化、群体间相互争夺与对立。 - **2028 参选悬念**:面对主持人关于 2028 年大选的追问,杨安泽以幽默方式委婉带过,给未来留下了想象空间。 ## Notable quotes > [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=4s) 显然这就是为什么我今天成了总统,而且一切都进展得如此顺利。 — 杨安泽 > [00:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=4s) 最糟糕的政党数量是一个,第二糟糕的是两个,第三糟糕的是三个……至于我们现在到底有几个能发挥实际作用的政党,大家可以自行判断,有人甚至会说是零个。 — 杨安泽 > [01:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=80s) 因为 AI,我停止了招聘,并且正在悄悄裁员。 — 企业 CEO(杨安泽引述) > [06:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=377s) 一位管理着 5,000 名员工的上市科技公司 CEO 对我说:‘我已经裁掉了 1,000 人,未来 12 到 18 个月内我还打算再裁 1,500 人。我的利润率会上升,股价也会上涨。我对此感到非常矛盾——作为一个人,我不喜欢解雇大批员工,但面对竞争我别无选择。’ — 杨安泽 > [09:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=580s) 好消息是美国人挺喜欢你,坏消息是美国人讨厌‘未来’。 — CNN 高层(杨安泽引述) > [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) 兄弟,你当年真的预测对了。 — 民众(杨安泽引述) > [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) 恐惧是思维杀手。 — 杨安泽(引用《沙丘》) > [12:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=738s) 贫困就是现实生活中的思维杀手。 — 杨安泽 > [18:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1138s) 应该对我们征收更多税。 — 达里奥·阿莫代伊(杨安泽引述) > [20:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1239s) 绝对更希望是《星际迷航》(Star Trek)的世界,而不是《疯狂的麦克斯》(Mad Max)。 — 杨安泽 > [20:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY&t=1239s) 我可不能在这里宣布,南希,咱们晚点私下聊。 — 杨安泽 ## Mentioned Nancy Scola, Andrew Yang(杨安泽), Forward Party(前进党), Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Anthropic, OpenAI, Dario Amodei, Chipotle, Uber, CNN, Humanity Forward, NBER(美国全国经济研究所), John Burn-Murdoch, Financial Times(金融时报), Ron Schmelzer, Forbes(福布斯), 《沙丘》(Dune), 《星际迷航》(Star Trek), 《疯狂的麦克斯》(Mad Max), Substack, ChatGPT ## Video description Nancy Scola, veteran technology reporter Andrew Yang, Former Presidential Candidate, Bestselling Author, Founder, Forward Party Abstracts How will AI transform our economy — and what happens to people when the robots come for our jobs? In this talk, I’ll explain why Universal Basic Income (UBI) is not just a policy idea, but a necessary foundation for an AI-driven future that works for everyone. I’ll share how accelerating automation will reshape industries, redefine the value of human work, and demand bold, practical solutions to keep communities strong and families secure. You’ll hear real-world lessons from my presidential campaign, Humanity Forward’s cash relief efforts, and my ongoing work to modernize democracy through the Forward Party. Join me to explore how we can balance innovation with economic dignity — and walk away ready to shape a future where AI helps us all thrive. [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmK44MAL8FY)

Source quotes

[0:04] 杨安泽: 显然这就是为什么我今天成了总统,而且一切都进展得如此顺利。 [0:04] 杨安泽: 最糟糕的政党数量是一个,第二糟糕的是两个,第三糟糕的是三个……至于我们现在到底有几个能发挥实际作用的政党,大家可以自行判断,有人甚至会说是零个。 [1:20] 企业 CEO(杨安泽引述): 因为 AI,我停止了招聘,并且正在悄悄裁员。 [6:17] 杨安泽: 一位管理着 5,000 名员工的上市科技公司 CEO 对我说:‘我已经裁掉了 1,000 人,未来 12 到 18 个月内我还打算再裁 1,500 人。我的利润率会上升,股价也会上涨。我对此感到非常矛盾——作为一个人,我不喜欢解雇大批员工,但面对竞争我别无选择。’ [9:40] CNN 高层(杨安泽引述): 好消息是美国人挺喜欢你,坏消息是美国人讨厌‘未来’。 [12:18] 民众(杨安泽引述): 兄弟,你当年真的预测对了。 [12:18] 杨安泽(引用《沙丘》): 恐惧是思维杀手。 [12:18] 杨安泽: 贫困就是现实生活中的思维杀手。 [18:58] 达里奥·阿莫代伊(杨安泽引述): 应该对我们征收更多税。 [20:39] 杨安泽: 绝对更希望是《星际迷航》(Star Trek)的世界,而不是《疯狂的麦克斯》(Mad Max)。 [20:39] 杨安泽: 我可不能在这里宣布,南希,咱们晚点私下聊。

Source quotes

[0:04] Andrew Yang: Guys, the robots are coming [0:04] Andrew Yang: And obviously that's why I'm president today and things are going so well. [0:04] Andrew Yang: the worst number of parties you can have is one. Second worst is two. Third worst is three [6:17] Andrew Yang: Hey, I'm the CEO of a publicly traded tech company. I've got I'm just going to make up a number 5,000 workers. I've just cut a thousand of them. I think I'm going to cut another 1500 in the next 12 to 18 months and I think my profitability is going to go up and my stock's going to go up. How do I feel about this? Very ambivalent. Like I'm a human being so I dislike firing lots of people, but what are you going to do? [9:46] CNN network executives: Hey, Andrew, bad news. Americans don't like the future. [12:18] Voters / Citizens: Man, you called it [12:18] Andrew Yang: Well, we didn't do shit. [12:18] Andrew Yang: Poverty is the mind killer in real life. [14:54] Andrew Yang: They probably would say yes. [19:29] Andrew Yang: I vastly prefer Star Trek to Mad Max as a future I'm going to leave for my kids.

Original transcript

[0:04] Uh thank you so much everyone for being [0:05] here. I'm so excited to be here uh and [0:07] have this discussion with Andrew Yang. [0:08] It's an fascinating time at the [0:09] intersection of technology and politics, [0:11] specifically AI and politics. And Andrew [0:14] Yang's a p perfect person to talk about [0:15] it because you've been talking about it [0:16] for about as long as anybody. Uh [0:18] >> yeah, five years ago I was in a truck [0:20] stop in Iowa being like, "Guys, the [0:22] robots are coming." [0:24] >> And obviously that's why I'm president [0:26] today and things are going so well. [0:29] worked. Uh so I want to start with a bit [0:31] of uh recently reported news. It was [0:32] reported that you had a conversation or [0:34] otherwise were in contact with Elon Musk [0:36] or his team around the idea of starting [0:38] a third party. You have some experience [0:40] in that. You started the third party in [0:41] 2021. Leaving the Democratic party, you [0:43] started the forward party. What is the [0:45] the rise of AI? Why does this the rise [0:48] of AI, excuse me, necessitate the [0:50] creation of a third or even fourth [0:51] party? Like what is the interplay [0:52] between those two concepts? [0:54] >> Miss through the fourth part. Oh, that's [0:55] fine. Um [0:56] >> well, yours and Elon's. [0:57] >> No, no. So, [0:58] >> I'm sorry. Is it the same party? Are you [1:00] starting? [1:01] >> So, my joke is the worst number of [1:03] parties you can have is one. Second [1:05] worst is two. Third worst is three. See [1:08] how it's going? [1:09] You can determine for yourself how many [1:11] functional parties we have right now. [1:13] So, [1:14] some might say, you know, zero, you [1:17] know. Um, [1:20] all right. So I got into public life [1:22] because in my estimation [1:26] uh the reason Trump won in 2016 was that [1:29] we'd automated away about 4 million [1:31] manufacturing jobs that were primarily [1:33] based in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, [1:34] and Wisconsin. All states he won. And if [1:37] you look at the district data, you find [1:39] that the needle starts going to the red [1:41] as soon as you get rid of the [1:42] manufacturing plant um or or other job [1:45] base there. uh and my friends in Silicon [1:47] Valley were working on something called [1:49] AI that was going to take something [1:51] called the jobs away [1:54] from a lot of people. And I, you know, [1:56] determined this in 2017 or so. And so I [2:00] said, "Okay." I went to Silicon Valley [2:02] and said, "Hey guys, uh, who wants to [2:04] try and alert the American people to the [2:05] fact that AI is going to come down like [2:07] a freight train?" Uh, and obviously [2:10] everyone in Silicon Valley said, "Not [2:11] me. Not me. Not me." And so I was like, [2:13] "All right, guys. like then I'll do it [2:15] and uh you should at least give me money [2:17] um to make this case the American [2:19] people. Some of them did, some of them [2:20] didn't. Uh so you when you talk about AI [2:23] and its inner action with our politics, [2:27] uh we decimated the manufacturing uh [2:31] workforce over, you know, multi-year [2:34] period. Uh and we're about to do the [2:36] same thing to office workers. So [2:38] congratulations to us. Um, no. Uh, um, [2:42] but just to level set a little bit, what [2:44] percentage of Americans graduate from [2:46] college? [2:50] >> It's about 35%. So, the population is uh [2:53] 2/3 high school grads. What are the most [2:56] common jobs in the US economy? [2:59] >> Truck driving is number four, hence my [3:01] visit to the truck stop. [3:04] >> Retail is number two. [3:07] Healthcare is a sector would be there [3:08] but it's it it it has a bunch of [3:10] different occupations. So number one is [3:14] clerical and administrative which [3:16] includes call center workers of which [3:17] there are still approximately 2 million. [3:19] Uh number two is retail. Number three is [3:22] food service and food prep. Number four [3:24] is truck driving and transportation. And [3:25] number five, believe it or not, is still [3:27] manufacturing. So that's about half of [3:29] the American uh labor force in those [3:32] five occupations broadly defined. And [3:34] then you have college grads are in the [3:36] 35%. Uh, and those jobs are now [3:39] evaporating pretty quick. And I was [3:42] joking with Nancy on the way up here. [3:43] It's like, imagine if American industry [3:46] and tech companies spent a trillion [3:47] dollars on AI and it had no impact on [3:51] the operations of all these companies. I [3:54] mean, that's absurd if you think about [3:55] it. Like, of course, it's going to have [3:56] a profound impact. And for the last 9 [3:59] months or so, CEOs have been telling me [4:01] in private, I'm not hiring because of [4:03] AI. I'm quietly laying people off [4:05] because of AI. And I kept hearing this [4:07] and thinking, ah, when is this going to [4:09] hit the labor data? Like, when is this [4:11] going to hit the job data? And the it [4:13] hit about a week and a half ago. I don't [4:16] know if you guys saw that where u May, [4:18] June, July got revised down. 75% of the [4:21] new jobs created in that that period [4:23] were just in healthcare in this one [4:25] industry because phabbotomists still [4:27] hard to automate. Um so you have uh so [4:31] you have this [4:34] title wave rolling through the American [4:36] economy uh and then you have a political [4:38] system that is essentially completely [4:41] inert or unresponsive to it because our [4:43] political system now is just scoring [4:45] points along tribalist and ideological [4:48] lines. There are a lot of people in my [4:50] opinion who voted for Trump because they [4:51] were unhappy with various economic [4:53] circumstances. But what are they [4:54] getting? They're getting tariffs and [4:56] nationalization of the, you know, DC uh [4:58] police force and a bunch of things that [5:00] have nothing to do with the challenges [5:03] that um I I've just uh outlined and in [5:06] some ways are going to make them worse [5:07] because tariffs, my opinion, raise [5:09] prices uh you know eliminate uh a lot of [5:12] trade-based jobs, including in places [5:14] like Iowa where I spent a lot of time uh [5:16] 5 years ago and they have uh like a [5:19] trade-based agricultural economy and [5:21] they're getting hurt a lot of they that [5:23] was a state that went to Trump. There [5:24] are a lot of red states that voted for [5:26] Trump that are seeing those kinds of [5:27] impacts. So, we're in this kind of uh [5:31] downward spiral of uh cocktail of um [5:36] displacement of American workers and [5:38] then a political system and a media [5:40] industrial complex with the exception of [5:41] Nancy Skola who's excellent [5:45] that that is not actually responding to [5:49] genuinely. You should follow Nancy Skola [5:50] on her social media platform. she's [5:52] actually like very very fact-based and [5:55] the rest of it. [5:56] >> Uh and and so that this is uh why we are [6:00] where we are is that we have rising [6:02] challenges and an unresponsive political [6:04] system. Uh and so most Americans now are [6:06] like okay not working so well. So then [6:08] what is the answer? And I'm going to [6:09] suggest the answer might have to come [6:11] from outside of the two-party system [6:13] because neither of the two legacy [6:14] parties actually going to save us. [6:17] >> So we saw you spoke with Elon Musk. I'm [6:19] going to ask you more about that [6:20] offstage. The um shortly afterward that [6:23] the Trump administration released their [6:24] AI action plan. So they tried to address [6:26] some of these concerns about AI while [6:28] also sort of you know sparking more [6:30] investment uh in the field. How does [6:32] that differ when you look it's pretty [6:34] sweeping, right? It's like let's loosen [6:35] up permitting for data centers. Let's [6:37] address ideological bias, quote unquote [6:39] ideological bias in AI. How did that uh [6:42] plan look different than what what the [6:44] Yang administration should that have [6:45] come to pass would have put out on on [6:48] AI? I I I've outlined some of it just [6:51] now, Nancy, but [6:53] uh [6:55] I think that the concerns they're [6:56] outlining and the measures you just [6:58] described, which is, hey, you need to be [6:59] able to build data centers and like, [7:01] hey, you have to make sure that the um [7:03] the messages they put out are are not [7:06] biased, are not the main things I'm [7:08] concerned about. The main things I'm [7:09] concerned about are the 2.8 million call [7:11] center workers who are going to uh be [7:13] cashiered pretty quick. uh the [7:17] recent college graduates uh who graduate [7:20] with engineering degrees and are working [7:21] at Chipotle or Uber. I don't know if you [7:23] guys have seen these these reports. Uh [7:25] and I have tons of friends who are in [7:28] the field who are highly educated middle [7:30] managers at various tech companies [7:32] who've recently been laid off. Uh and in [7:35] some ways like who's going to cry for [7:37] the laid-off 50-year-old executive? You [7:40] know what I mean? Like maybe if you're a [7:42] 50-y old executive, you might cry that [7:44] person, but like that that's not a [7:46] really uh you know like sympathetic [7:49] narrative um to the population at large, [7:51] but then that's a real person with a [7:53] family and then you multiply that times [7:55] x 100,000. Um, so that's where I think [7:59] we should be focused. Um, less so on [8:02] whether the models are, and look, I I [8:05] care obviously whether the models are uh [8:07] racist or the rest of it. But, uh, but [8:10] that that to me is going to be [8:11] immaterial to a lot of the workers who [8:14] are facing a very tough circumstance [8:16] very soon. There's been a a savvy take [8:18] in Washington, the sort of people who, [8:20] you know, want to seem clever about this [8:21] recently that say that the talk of the [8:23] white collar bloodbath, that was a [8:25] phrase that's been floating around that [8:27] that's overblown. That's just companies [8:28] like Anthropic, OpenAI trying to uh [8:31] prove how powerful their tools are. How [8:33] do you sort of how do you react against [8:34] that? I mean, it's obviously differs [8:35] from your perspective. How [8:36] >> No, no. Again, I mean, um I I have [8:39] private conversations with CEOs over [8:40] dinner. I'm going to describe one. Hey, [8:42] I'm the CEO of a publicly traded tech [8:44] company. I've got I'm just going to make [8:46] up a number 5,000 workers. I've just cut [8:49] a thousand of them. I think I'm going to [8:51] cut another 1500 in the next uh 12 to 18 [8:54] months and I think my profitability is [8:56] going to go up and my stock's going to [8:58] go up. How do I feel about this? Very [8:59] ambivalent. Like I'm a human being so I [9:01] dislike firing lots of people, but what [9:03] are you going to do? Um I I've had that [9:06] conversation or version of it dozens of [9:09] times. So anyone who thinks that like [9:12] the the white collar blood bath is [9:15] nonsense is going to be wrong and then x [9:19] months from now they're going to be like [9:20] oh I didn't call that like you know [9:22] didn't call that right. Um but the odds [9:24] of them owning up to that very low. Uh [9:26] because now we're in we're at a point [9:28] where uh you know all you can do is try [9:31] and score points to you know acrew [9:33] substack um subscribers so that you can [9:37] ek out a living. um you know that that's [9:40] what we're now reduced to with the [9:41] exception of Nancy Skola and her [9:43] esteemed organization and the rest of [9:45] it. [9:46] >> Um your response to some of these uh [9:48] changes in the in the labor force and in [9:50] the job market has been universal basic [9:51] income. Can you give your very basic [9:53] your very quick pitch on on UBI? [9:56] >> Sure. So uh America's GDP is up to about [9:59] $82,000 per capita. Uh so if you were to [10:04] try and build a foundation for Americans [10:06] and by the way that 82,000 per capita is [10:08] going to shoot up because of something [10:09] called AI [10:11] that's going to add hundreds of billions [10:14] of dollars certainly in economic [10:15] productivity. Uh you know it's like when [10:17] that tech CEO fires his thousand workers [10:20] and replaces them with AI, the company [10:23] is going to do just fine. Uh now those [10:26] workers are going to be in a tougher [10:28] spot. So what you should do is you [10:29] should start uh taking some of the newly [10:33] generated value and distributing it more [10:34] broadly to the American people. I'm [10:36] going to share a quick story with you [10:37] guys that'll that'll just for you all [10:39] it'll be funny. So um I worked for CNN [10:42] for a particular period of time and they [10:44] approached me and said hey Andrew we [10:46] want you to do a TV show called the [10:48] future of with Andrew Yang. It was like [10:49] the future of education the future of [10:52] transportation. I said sounds like a [10:54] good idea. I mean let's explore. And [10:55] then they did a focus group and they [10:58] came back and said, "Hey, Andrew, bad [11:00] news. Americans don't like the future." [11:05] Now, happily, they also said they like [11:07] you just fine. So, uh, you know, like [11:10] we'll continue to have you on air, but [11:12] um, but the future of no likey. So uh so [11:17] uh well you know one of the reasons that [11:18] most Americans sense instinctively that [11:20] as these efficiencies pick up steam it's [11:23] not going to benefit them you know [11:26] because maybe they're not a major [11:27] shareholder in that tech company. Now [11:30] you all are probably on the other end of [11:32] this curve probably by virtue of being [11:35] at this conference working in this field [11:37] doing what you're doing. Um we can all [11:39] see that there's this divergence [11:41] happening in the economy where it's like [11:42] if you are a beneficiary then you know [11:44] you go to the moon. I talked to someone [11:46] the other day who like works for one of [11:48] these uh companies is benefiting from AI [11:50] and is like you know is like I'm making [11:51] tons of money and like I have mixed [11:53] feelings about it. Um, so what what's [11:56] happening in American life is like a [11:58] scramble for steady ground. And [12:00] unfortunately that scramble is going to [12:02] get harder and harder for most people. [12:03] Most people in this room, I sense you'll [12:06] probably be fine. Um, but you know that [12:08] that that doesn't describe the normal [12:10] situation and um, Americans sense it and [12:12] so they're they're getting uh, agitated [12:14] and frustrated and you're seeing that [12:16] play out in different ways. [12:18] >> You've been promoting the idea of [12:19] universal basic income for about seven [12:21] years. [12:22] >> Yeah, sure. Chad GPT rolled onto the [12:25] scene, got everyone's attention about [12:27] four years ago. Has it become easier to [12:29] sell the idea of UBI or is it sort of [12:30] >> Yeah, guys, I uh virtually every day [12:33] someone come to me on the street and [12:35] say, "Man, you called it, you know, and [12:37] again, that's why I'm president today." [12:41] >> Um, so [12:42] >> you going to take another crack at the [12:43] uh at the White House? [12:45] >> I I'm I'm like too young almost not to, [12:48] you know what I mean? I've got like [12:50] another 30 years uh in American life. [12:54] Um [12:58] yeah, so uh I mean the problems aren't [13:00] getting any better unfortunately. Uh and [13:04] I will say that um I do get angry and [13:07] frustrated sometimes because it's cold [13:09] comfort when someone's like, "Hey man, [13:10] you called it." I'm just like, "Well, we [13:12] didn't do shit." though I I I though I I [13:14] do want to amend that slightly is that [13:16] um my team has spent the last five years [13:19] lobbying for something called the [13:21] enhanced child tax credit. Um that [13:23] actually got wedged into the big [13:25] beautiful bill. Um and so uh American [13:28] families who make below a certain amount [13:30] of money that have kids are going to get [13:31] an additional 80 billion a year um [13:34] forever. Um and so this is like one of [13:36] the greatest accomplishments I've had in [13:39] my life because my goal is to alleviate [13:41] poverty. I think poverty is stupid and [13:42] unnecessary. Um, and those of you who [13:45] are sci-fi fans, I I call it the the [13:47] mind killer. It's like, you know, fear [13:48] is the mind killer in June. Poverty is [13:50] the mind killer in real life. Um, so the [13:53] fact that my team at Humanity Forward [13:56] managed to [13:58] get $80 billion a year out to uh [14:00] struggling American families is [14:02] something that I'm very, very proud of. [14:04] And if you donated to my campaign, then [14:06] you helped make that happen, too. So, [14:07] thank you. And if you didn't donate to [14:09] my campaign, where the were you? [14:12] >> What was that number? How much money has [14:13] humanity for it ruled out? [14:14] >> So, I mean, the So, the enhanced child [14:16] tax credit will distribute about $80 [14:18] billion a year to American families. [14:20] >> Um because it was meant to go down to [14:22] $1,000 um per kid per year. And then um [14:26] now it's 2,200, which I'm going to [14:28] suggest is a much bigger number than a [14:30] thousand. [14:32] [Applause] [14:36] So, you know, I'm I'm like not I'm not [14:38] just like a dude who's like, "Oh, I was [14:40] right. Like, you know, now I'm not blah [14:42] blah blah." It's like I'm I'm doing [14:43] Like, I'm a real person. I do [14:45] I don't just hang out in Las Vegas [14:48] ballrooms and entertain you all. Like, I [14:49] I uh [14:52] you know what I mean? Anyway, [14:54] >> some of the recent research on universal [14:56] basic income hasn't necessarily been so [14:58] supportive of the positive effects, [15:00] right? There's been like this trend of [15:01] papers coming out. There's one la last [15:03] month. It was a working paper from the [15:05] um National Bureau of Economic Research [15:07] suggested the impact on kids at least in [15:09] the short term wasn't overwhelmingly [15:10] positive. Right. That's been the sort of [15:12] trend in research. Are you looking at me [15:13] skeptically? Is that not [15:15] >> I mean I've I've seen some of the white [15:16] papers. I've seen I've seen some white [15:18] papers in the other direction from [15:19] Indian tribes for example where like u [15:22] um kids levels of consciential [15:24] conscientiousness and agreeableness went [15:26] up when their families received a [15:28] certain amount of money and it was like [15:29] a very long-term longitudinal study. Um, [15:32] I'm going to suggest that even the [15:33] studies that have found mixed results, [15:35] uh, if you ask the families, hey, do you [15:36] want to keep getting this money? They [15:37] probably would say yes. Just a guess. [15:42] So, I I think we wind up heading down a [15:45] version of this direction. I've always [15:47] thought so. The question to me is um, do [15:50] you get there the positive, benign, [15:52] enlightened way or the nasty and hard [15:55] way? And the nasty and hard way I think [15:57] is going to be vastly destructive over a [16:00] period of years. And some of the damage [16:02] that we're seeing, it's not it can't be [16:05] undone. You know what I mean? It's like [16:06] toothpaste out of a tube. You're like, [16:07] "Oh, we up. We should put the [16:09] toothpaste back in the tube." Like, [16:10] that's not, [16:12] you know what I mean? Like, after things [16:14] start going south for particular folks, [16:17] then, you know, it's hard to restore [16:19] their trust in institutions or that if [16:21] they do the right thing, they're going [16:22] to benefit. Um there was a a study that [16:25] came out last week um from this [16:27] Financial Times journalist you're [16:28] probably friends with John Burn Murdoch [16:30] where he compiled uh personality [16:33] traits across generations and [16:35] conscientiousness and agreeableness have [16:37] gone off a cliff for young people uh and [16:40] there's some belief that it's like look [16:42] they they have not actually had good [16:44] behaviors rewarded or positively [16:47] reinforced and so when they don't show [16:49] up for a shift at work now it's like can [16:51] you blame them? It's like, well, [16:52] Like, you know, I mean, I feel for them, [16:54] but like we're kind of in the soup if [16:56] you can't expect anyone to show up and [16:58] do what they, you know, said they were [17:00] going to do. Uh, and that's very hard to [17:03] undo as a parent. You know, like, as a [17:05] parent, how many of you all are parents? [17:07] It's like, so, you know, if you're a [17:08] parent, what you do is you try and do [17:10] the right thing, be a good role model [17:11] for your child day in day out. you're [17:13] not perfect, you make mistakes, and then [17:15] you think if you like repeat that over a [17:17] period of years, then like hopefully [17:19] your your kid will like benefit. And [17:21] that that's parenting, you know, and [17:23] that's what our institutions are meant [17:24] to do uh societywide, whether it's our [17:27] schools, uh places of worship, news [17:30] media. [17:32] So I keep [17:33] >> No, we're fine [17:33] >> with the with the exception of um you [17:35] know so um yeah and so it it it breaks [17:39] my heart um that what we what we've done [17:42] um because I think we're to the extent [17:44] that universal basic income is achieved [17:45] I think it's going to be through a very [17:47] very um arduous period of years two [17:51] minutes two audience questions let's [17:52] make them quick yes please quick [17:55] >> toothpaste back in the tube [17:57] >> Ron Schmelzer from Forbes uh so question [17:59] is about AI because the toothpaste is [18:01] already out of the tube for AI talking [18:03] about the the negative impact. So what [18:05] is the suggested direction that that [18:07] organization should go with either [18:09] adoption of AI their development of AI [18:11] regulations on AI restrictions what and [18:14] this is an international situation not [18:16] just US only. [18:17] >> Oh sure so um the way you're asking the [18:20] question Ron it's like what should [18:21] individual organizations do and [18:22] individual organizations should adopt AI [18:25] as it suits their their goals. Uh, you [18:27] know, it's unfortunately we're in a [18:29] situation where if you were to be like, [18:30] I refuse to use AI, then you'll probably [18:32] get crushed by your competitors. And if [18:34] you're trying to avoid firing a certain [18:36] number of people, you're probably going [18:36] to have to fire them all when you go out [18:38] of business cuz like some AI powered [18:40] competitor wrecks you. So, if you're an [18:42] individual organization, you know, what [18:44] are you going to do? Um, now there's a [18:47] distinction between what an individual [18:48] organization should do and what policy [18:50] makers should do or what uh, you know, [18:51] like uh, uh, government should be doing. [18:55] Um, so I have feelings about that [18:56] obviously, but for the individual [18:58] organization, you like I don't blame the [19:00] CEOs who I had dinner with who described [19:02] this to me because it's like, man, if I [19:03] was in your shoes, probably be doing the [19:05] same thing, you know, like you, by the [19:07] way, the folks who say anthropic, it's [19:08] like, oh, I'm serving my own interest by [19:10] saying we're wrecking white collar jobs. [19:11] They said we should tax we should get [19:12] taxed more is what Daario said. And I [19:15] last I checked, that's not in the [19:16] interest of CEOs to raise our hands and [19:18] say, tax us more. I mean, that that [19:19] wasn't I I actually take him at his word [19:21] that he's genuinely concerned. One last [19:24] one very quickly. Yes, sorry. [19:29] >> Right now, a lot of the adoption of the [19:31] AI seem to be focusing on efficiency [19:33] gains. Have you seen uh anyone working [19:35] on making the pie bigger for everyone uh [19:38] so that we don't have to worry about, [19:40] you know, people losing their jobs. [19:44] >> It's true. A lot of companies are going [19:46] to say, "Look, let me just like get my [19:47] stuff done more efficiently." But [19:49] they're going to be societywide gains [19:50] like and let I'll end on this positive [19:52] uplifting note because you guys are [19:53] obviously for the most part like uh you [19:56] know AI proponents. Uh are we going to [20:00] lengthen the human lifespan because we [20:02] we find cures to uh various forms of [20:05] cancer and maybe even Alzheimer's? Like [20:07] yes, I think so. Like are we going to [20:09] have a greater chance of getting to uh [20:13] sustainable energy? Uh yeah, I think so [20:15] too. you know, like like AI is going to [20:17] supercharge innovation across all sorts [20:20] of dimensions that have massive [20:23] uh value generating implications for the [20:26] the public. It's just going to be [20:28] difficult for that person to get pumped [20:29] when they're at home uh you know like uh [20:32] with no money and watching their their [20:34] kids uh be depressed and and the rest of [20:37] it. So, uh, you know, like there is an [20:39] opportunity for abundance and and that [20:41] that that be my closing thought to you [20:42] is that, you know, 82,000 ahead, maybe [20:44] it sounds like a um, you know, good [20:46] amount to you, maybe not. Like imagine a [20:48] h 100,000 ahead. Imagine 100 like [20:50] $80,000 ahead. Like we could get there. [20:53] This is the first time in human history [20:56] where scarcity might not actually be the [21:00] rule of the day. And the question is, [21:01] can we evolve in an era of abundance or [21:04] will we turn on each other and kill each [21:06] other? Uh that that's really the choice. [21:09] And I don't know about the rest of you, [21:10] but I'm vastly prefer Star Trek to Mad [21:13] Max. Um as a future I'm going to leave [21:15] for my kids. [21:16] >> We are out of time running in 2028. [21:19] >> I can't announce here, Nancy, but uh you [21:21] know, talk later. [21:22] >> Thank you, Andrew, so much. Thank you [21:23] all for being here. I appreciate it. [21:24] >> Thank you all. Appreciate you all. Thank [21:27] you.