Bending Spoons Buys Miro for $1.8 Billion in 89% Valuation Haircut
TBPN
Miro's steep discount demonstrates that enterprise software valuations collapse to low single-digit multiples without sustained growth acceleration, regardless of profitability or high recurring revenue.
## Background
Published on YouTube by TBPN on September 10, 2026, this episode of Diet TBPN delivers a 30-minute daily tech recap hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays. According to the show notes, the broadcast highlights the best of the live tech talk show, covering AI safety timelines, enterprise acquisitions, hardware keynotes, and late-night sports scheduling controversies.
## TL;DR
Hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays examine the escalating AI safety media blitz and evaluate how the prominent 'AI 2027' forecast matches real-world labor disruption and automated research benchmarks. They break down significant tech M&A, analyzing Bending Spoons' acquisition of Miro at an 89% valuation haircut alongside Shopify's purchase of Tailwind CSS. The discussion transitions to consumer tech, where the hosts debate the practical trade-offs, awkward aspect ratios, and lifestyle implications of Apple's rumored foldable 'iPhone Duo.' The episode concludes with a critique of the US Open's 3:33 AM finish between Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton, comparing midnight tennis scheduling to early-morning overseas UFC bouts.
## Atmosphere & style
The show moves at a breezy, conversational clip, blending sharp Silicon Valley business analysis with irreverent, quick-witted desk banter. Coogan and Hays play off each other effortlessly, pairing serious discussions of dual-use bioweapons and SaaS multiple compression with running jokes about podcast studios, Apple marketing tropes, and repetitive dinner habits. Listening feels like tuning in to two highly plugged-in tech insiders chopping up the morning's news cycle with humor, realism, and zero corporate stiffness.
## Key takeaways
- [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1s) Joscha Bach's viral 2030 extinction wager illustrates the inherent logical asymmetry of betting on apocalyptic outcomes that one cannot survive to collect.
- [02:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=136s) The 'AI 2027' forecast accurately anticipated frontier labs automating internal AI research, but its predictions of severe immediate labor displacement and massive street protests have yet to materialize.
- [05:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=313s) Anthropic's decision to shut down accounts suspected of bioweapon research highlights the difficult dual-use challenge facing frontier models capable of accelerating synthetic biology.
- [05:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=353s) Recent AI safety whistleblower campaigns have favored rapid-fire cable news appearances over detailed, long-form technical explanations of catastrophic risk.
- [09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=561s) AI safety skeptics and observers increasingly demand testable, step-by-step causal chains rather than authoritative, unfalsifiable probability figures like p(doom).
- [10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=634s) Bending Spoons acquired Miro for $1.79 billion—an 89% drop from its $17.5 billion peak—showing how single-digit growth severely compresses SaaS valuation multiples despite $600M in ARR and positive cash flow.
- [12:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=720s) Bending Spoons' acquisitions of Miro and Airtable may signal an enterprise roll-up strategy aimed at offering a cost-effective productivity bundle against Google Workspace.
- [14:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=864s) Shopify's acquisition of Tailwind CSS provides a financial exit for essential open-source web infrastructure that fueled AI frontend tools without capturing direct commercial upside.
- [15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) For foldable phones like the rumored iPhone Duo, the physical screen crease is less of a user problem than the squarish aspect ratio that letterboxes widescreen video and pillarboxes vertical content.
- [17:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1050s) Apple has yet to articulate a clear philosophical justification for foldables, contrasting with Steve Jobs' 2010 iPad unveiling that strictly defined why a third device category was necessary.
- [18:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1139s) The consumer appeal of foldable phones centers on impromptu utility, giving users an expanded screen during unpredictable downtime without needing to carry a tablet.
- [20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) The US Open's 3:33 a.m. finish between Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton sparked intense backlash, demonstrating how extreme night-session traditions undermine television viewership and athlete welfare.
- [25:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1516s) Scheduling absurdities driven by broadcast windows are not unique to tennis, mirroring UFC international events where athletes must fight at dawn to satisfy US prime-time pay-per-view slots.
## Detailed walkthrough
### [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1s) Y Combinator Demo Day and the 2030 Human Extinction Bet
The show kicks off with the hosts noting there are only 105 days left until Christmas before diving into a packed news day. It is Y Combinator Demo Day, and YC President and CEO Garry Tan is scheduled to join the broadcast, followed by back-to-back appearances from five different YC batch startups working on humanoid robots, satellites, AI agents, and fintech credit cards. The hosts explain that covering early-stage founders is their favorite way to ground themselves in where the tech ecosystem is genuinely heading over the next decade, especially amid the constant media noise surrounding frontier AI labs and Apple's latest hardware keynotes.
Reflecting on long-term outlooks, the conversation turns to existential risk and the prevailing doomer sentiment online. They spotlight a viral post by cognitive scientist Joscha Bach mocking absolute doom timelines: "If you think AI will lead to human extinction by 2030, I will take that bet. If we are still alive by December 31st, 2030, you pay me 1 million USD. If not, I will pay you 10 million USD." The hosts laugh at the obvious asymmetry of betting on your own extinction, remarking that calculating a realistic p(doom) requires clear time horizons. After all, complete human extinction is guaranteed on an astronomical scale—the default timeline for the heat death of the universe is $10^{100}$ years (a googol), and even within one billion years the expanding sun will engulf Earth, giving humanity a hard deadline to become interplanetary.
- **Upcoming TBPN lineup**: Garry Tan interview followed by five YC batch startups spanning humanoid robotics, orbital satellites, AI agent workflows, and consumer fintech.
- **Joscha Bach's wager**: A $1M vs. $10M bet on human survival through December 31, 2030, highlighting the logical flaw in betting on apocalyptic outcomes you cannot survive to collect.
---
[02:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=136s) AI 2027 Tracking, Joe Rogan's Tangents, and Labor Disruption
The hosts pivot to the full-court media blitz currently being staged by the AI safety and alignment community. Daniel Kokotajlo, co-author of the prominent "AI 2027" forecasting scenario, recently appeared on *The Joe Rogan Experience*. While Kokotajlo systematically broke down rapid model capabilities and systemic risks for mainstream listeners, Rogan repeatedly steered the conversation into wild detours like UFOs and CIA remote viewing experiments. While Daniel maintained skepticism toward the paranormal while defending existential risk models, the hosts wonder whether putting AI safety alongside alien conspiracies on huge podcasts accidentally trivializes the topic, relegating severe technical risks into abstract pop-culture fodder.
Evaluating how the "AI 2027" forecast is tracking in real time, the hosts review what the scenario anticipated for September 2026: AI becoming economically disruptive while actively automating AI research itself. While AI labs openly celebrate automating internal research workflows with "AI research interns," the question of macroeconomic disruption remains nuanced. The forecast predicted severe shocks to junior software engineering while senior managers overseeing AI agents thrive. Although roughly 17,000 monthly job losses are attributed to AI, that figure represents less than 1% of the normal 1.7 million monthly churn in the US labor market. Meanwhile, the scenario's prediction of a massive 10,000-person anti-AI protest has yet to materialize—past demonstrations in San Francisco drew barely several dozen people, despite celebrities like Sheryl Crow and Cheri Oteri urging the public on Instagram to take to the streets like historic protests abroad.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: AI 2027 Scenario vs Real World
accDescr: Comparison of AI 2027 predictions against actual September 2026 milestones.
subgraph Predictions["AI 2027 Scenario Forecasts"]
P1["Automated AI Research"]
P2["Junior Software Eng. Disruption"]
P3["10,000-Person Public Protests"]
end
subgraph Reality["Observed Reality"]
R1["Frontier labs deploy autonomous AI research interns"]
R2["~17k AI-attributed monthly cuts (<1% of US labor turnover)"]
R3["Street protests remain niche (<100 participants in SF)"]
end
P1 --> R1
P2 --> R2
P3 --> R3
```
---
[05:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=313s) Anthropic's Bioweapon Interception and Dual-Use Research
The hosts examine a newly broken *New York Times* investigation revealing that Anthropic recently blocked user activity suspected of biological weapons development. In an official transparency disclosure, Anthropic stated that its automated monitoring flagged a series of advanced biological queries. Because the frontier model could not distinguish whether the underlying research was legitimate academic biology or an attempt to engineer dangerous pathogens, the lab chose to shut down the accounts and terminate the workload.
The hosts note that this tension exemplifies the classic "dual-use" dilemma inherent to powerful general-purpose technologies. Much like nuclear physics—where the identical scientific fundamentals can be directed toward building a clean nuclear power plant or manufacturing an atomic warhead—frontier biological models accelerate synthetic chemistry and virology without inherently knowing user intent.
---
[05:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=353s) The Whistleblower Media Blitz, Studio Sleuthing, and Pop Culture Doom
The conversation shifts to the sudden deluge of mainstream media appearances by former safety researchers and whistleblowers like Jacob Coxin, who appeared across CNN, Anderson Cooper, and Fox News demanding emergency federal oversight. The hosts observe that unlike previous landmark industry disclosures—such as Leopold Aschenbrenner's massive multi-hour situational awareness manifesto—this campaign has favored rapid-fire cable news soundbites over long-form deep dives. They argue that a single five-hour technical podcast detailing plausible catastrophic paths would be far more educational for the public than punchy television hits.
```
Fox News Anchor: "Did you work with any third parties as far as this whistleblowing and coming out?"
Jacob Coxin: "Not at all. This is entirely my own personal concerns about safety and things that I've seen personally and conversations I've had."
```
The hosts chuckle over social media users analyzing the background of Coxin's Fox News broadcast. Having quit his post only hours before appearing on live television from a fully equipped broadcast space, viewers noticed the high-end decor and jokingly matched the backdrop to Alex Cooper's *Call Her Daddy* studio. While Coxin later clarified on CNN that he had received tactical assistance from an informal network of friends, the hosts speculate on what comes next—whether the media tour precedes a new non-profit lab, a crypto token, a memoir, or an indie film. They recall *Mountainhead*, a satirical tech movie released the previous year where an eccentric tech elite hides in an underground bunker while autonomous deepfakes trigger real-world geopolitical conflicts.
[09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=561s) AI Safety Narratives: Moving from p(doom) to Falsifiable Stories
John Coogan and Jordi Hays discuss how discourse around artificial intelligence risk often struggles to persuade people when reduced to abstract probability figures. Observers and AI safety skeptics are increasingly demanding detailed storytelling rather than pronouncements from figures who simply point to their own authority and cite a 5%, 10%, or 20% "p(doom)" over the next decade. While those soundbite probabilities reliably trigger viral social media engagement, they offer nothing tangible for people to track or critique.
The hosts note that Keith Rabois recently wrestled with this exact problem: it is virtually impossible to falsify a generic claim that doom has a 10% chance of happening in ten years. By contrast, laying out an explicit sequence of events—such as how specific safeguards on nuclear command-and-control systems might fail, the exact mechanisms through which weapons could be accessed, or how massive, abrupt job displacement would unfold—allows critics and researchers to verify, track, and challenge each link in the chain.
- AI safety critics want concrete scenarios and mechanistic causal chains rather than authoritative probability estimates.
- High-level claims like "10% risk in 10 years" are unfalsifiable, whereas explicit timelines of physical threats or catastrophic labor fallout provide testable hypotheses.
---
[10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=634s) Bending Spoons Buys Miro at an 89% Discount
The conversation shifts to major tech acquisitions, headlined by Italian software conglomerate Bending Spoons acquiring digital workspace and collaboration platform Miro for $1.79 billion. Jordi references a breakdown by Paul Bennett, a GP at 20VC, highlighting that this sale represents an 89% discount from Miro's previous peak valuation of $17.5 billion. At a multiple of under three times revenue, the exit illustrates a brutal reckoning for late-stage software valuations inflated during the zero-interest-rate peak.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Miro Valuation Collapse and SaaS Multiples
accDescr: Visual depiction of Miro's valuation shift from peak to Bending Spoons acquisition
A --> F
B --> F
C --> G
D --> G
E --> G
F --> H
```
John analyzes Bending Spoons' overarching operational strategy. In the past, the holding company acquired recognizable brands and operated them as disciplined, lean, standalone cash-flow generators. With Miro (a collaborative whiteboard and mood-boarding canvas) alongside tools like Airtable (the modern relational database and spreadsheet), John speculates whether Bending Spoons is assembling a unified enterprise workplace bundle. For startups grappling with paying $20 per seat across multiple specialized tools versus paying $15 for Google Workspace, a rolled-up bundle could unlock potent cross-selling opportunities where the whole becomes greater than the sum of its parts.
Jordi expresses shock at how dramatically a $17.5 billion valuation can evaporate, warning that many current high-flying private companies will face identical 90% haircuts three years from now if they fail to live up to hundred-billion-dollar price tags. Citing observations from Jason and Jamie Quint, the hosts unpack the underlying economics: Miro generated $600 million in ARR, was cash-flow positive, and boasted over 750 enterprise customers paying more than $100,000 annually. However, multiple consecutive years of sluggish 5% ARR growth completely decimated its multiple, proving that enterprise software valuations rely almost entirely on growth acceleration. John also jokes that the entire deal seems like brilliant promotion for David Senra's *Founders* podcast, which happened to schedule an interview with Bending Spoons CEO Luca Ferrari that very Sunday.
- Bending Spoons acquired Miro for $1.79 billion, down 89% from its peak private valuation of $17.5 billion.
- Miro had reached $600 million in ARR with cash-flow positive operations and 750+ enterprise customers spending over $100,000 per year.
- A drop to roughly 5% annual ARR growth eroded Miro's multiple down to under 3x ARR.
- Bending Spoons may transition from standalone holding assets to a collaborative productivity bundle spanning Miro and Airtable.
In developer tooling news, the hosts celebrate Shopify's acquisition of Tailwind CSS. Tailwind had emerged as an indispensable styling framework across modern web development and was heavily leveraged by AI-assisted coding tools, yet it historically struggled to capture direct financial upside from the software boom it enabled. John and Jordi recall a notable community moment when industry leaders like Logan Kilpatrick provided grants to keep the Tailwind team funded, making Shopify's acquisition a welcome, optimistic outcome for an essential piece of open-source software infrastructure.
- Tailwind was acquired by Shopify after previously needing ecosystem grant support, including help from figures like Logan Kilpatrick.
- Tailwind served as a core accelerator for modern web and AI-generated frontends without directly capturing proportionate value.
---
[15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) iPhone Duo Reactions: Creases, Ratios, and the Purpose of Foldables
The hosts tackle audience questions about Apple's rumored foldable "iPhone Duo," starting with chat user Sally Analysis asking about the screen crease. Jordi argues that screen creases are largely irrelevant in day-to-day use. He points out that sports fans routinely watch game days across four monitors divided by thick bezels without batting an eye. While a slight crease might catch light during plane travel, it generally disappears once an owner focuses on video playback.
Instead of the physical fold, John highlights a more fundamental friction point: the awkward square-like aspect ratio. Because modern movies use widescreen formats and internet video is predominantly 16:9, unfolded foldables will display thick black bars on the top and bottom or crop significant portions of the image if zoomed in. Vintage 4:3 content from the 1970s and 1980s will display natively without pan-and-scan alterations, but standard vertical short-form content will end up pillarboxed with empty black space on the sides, mirroring the awkwardness of viewing TikTok or Reels on an iPad.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Foldable Display Aspect Ratio Tradeoffs
accDescr: Diagram showing how different media formats fit on a squarish foldable screen
The hosts banter over a listener joke from "prolific Spotify comedian Dave," who described the product as "their most foldable iPhone yet," imagining Apple eventually announcing an "iPhone Quattro" that fans out into a 20-fold accordion screen. Jordi ribs John for falling victim to classic Apple marketing tropes after John remarked that the foldable simply made him want the iPhone 18 Pro because it will be "thinner, lighter, faster, better battery life."
They debate whether foldables serve as a true halo product that elevates the brand or an "anti-halo" product that scares practical consumers back into buying standard $2,000 iPhone Pro Max models to avoid mechanical complexity. Wrapping up the discussion, they cite Boom Supersonic CEO Blake Scholl, who observed that when Steve Jobs introduced the iPad, he went to extraordinary lengths to justify why a third product category between a smartphone and a laptop deserved to exist. With the iPhone Duo, Apple has engineered an impressive piece of hardware, yet has sidestepped explaining *why* people need a massive pocket screen—perhaps because admitting users want a giant canvas to spend eight hours a day mindlessly scrolling is too uncomfortable to pitch on stage.
- The physical center crease is viewed as a non-issue for multitasking, though widescreen 16:9 and 9:16 vertical content suffer from severe black borders.
- The Duo could act as an "anti-halo" device that steers mainstream consumers toward standard iPhone Pro models.
- Blake Scholl noted Apple failed to articulate the philosophical "why" for foldables, in stark contrast to Steve Jobs' original 2010 iPad unveiling.
[18:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1139s) Foldable Screens, Screen Time, and the Apple Duo Pitch
The debate over foldable phones shifts from hardware mechanics to psychology and lifestyle. One host argues that expanding screen real estate transforms the mobile experience into something substantially richer and far less "brain rotty." While nobody would want to sit through three-hour epics like *Lawrence of Arabia* or *Citizen Kane* on a cramped standard smartphone, doubling the display makes cinematic viewing genuinely appealing. The counterargument, however, centers on the optics of screen time and device addiction: critics point out that society is already wrestling with the negative mental effects of phones on kids and adults alike, making it somewhat uncomfortable for Apple to roll out an even larger portable display under the premise of feeding users more mindless entertainment.
The defense counters that Apple does not need to accept that pessimistic framing. Every negative screen-time trope has a positive analogue: phones allow people to clear their inboxes, stay in touch with friends, watch educational content, or experience multiplayer gaming like *Halo* and *Rust*, which form cherished core memories for millions of players. The ultimate sales pitch for the Duo is sheer spontaneity. Unplanned dead time—getting stranded for an extra hour at the DMV, waiting out an airport delay, or sitting in a long line—happens without warning, and nobody plans ahead by lugging an iPad everywhere. Having a foldable phone as a daily driver puts an expansive tablet display in your pocket at all times. The persuasive monologue draws an amused concession from across the desk: "I'm not sold, but get this guy a job at the Apple Store."
[20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) The 3:33 AM US Open Tennis Crisis: Alcaraz vs. Shelton
The conversation turns to the sports world's latest scheduling controversy at the US Open, where an electric men's match between Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton dragged on until an absurd 3:33 a.m. finish. The late-night marathon ignited immediate backlash across the media and sports landscape. Financier Bill Ackman took to social media to praise the duel as "one of the greatest tennis matches ever," while simultaneously blasting tournament organizers because virtually nobody got to see it live, declaring: "This needs to be fixed now. It's unfair to the players, fans, and sponsors in the sports." On the court, the physical toll was extreme: Shelton was firing 146 mph bullet serves to pull off the upset, while an exhausted Alcaraz was seen waving off television camera crews because he was on the verge of vomiting directly into a towel.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: US Open Late Match Dilemma
accDescr: Flowchart illustrating the clash between US Open night tradition and the negative impacts on players, fans, and viewership.
subgraph BreakingPoint["The 3:33 AM Extreme"]
C["Alcaraz vs. Shelton Extended Battle"]
D["Physical Exhaustion: 146 mph Serves & Nausea"]
end
subgraph Fallout["Widespread Fallout"]
E["Viewership Collapse Across Time Zones"]
F["Backlash from Critics, Fans & Bill Ackman"]
G["Proposed Fix: Midnight Hard Curfew"]
end
The hosts read extensively from a biting *Wall Street Journal* editorial that skewered the sport for failing to get out of its own way. The piece mocked the expectation that fans must pretend midnight tennis is automatically an "epic" spectacle rather than a nuisance that caused viewers to brush their teeth and go to sleep right after Shelton took the second set. While the US Open has long cultivated late-night tennis as core to New York's 24/7 romantic identity—alongside $23 Honey Deuce cocktails, wafting plumes of cannabis smoke from Flushing Meadows Park, all-night diners, dawn bike races, and subway theater—the hosts agree that Alcaraz versus Shelton should be a prime showcase rather than a graveyard-shift oddity. The late hour buried the broadcast so deep that even sports fans in Hawaii felt it ran late.
- The *Wall Street Journal* argued that network broadcasters like ESPN would never relegate a flagship college football rivalry like the Iron Bowl to 3:00 a.m., yet tennis constantly sabotages its own domestic reach.
- The hosts joke about the flowery, idiosyncratic prose of the article, wondering if it reads like AI slop before pivoting to real-world AI clichés like "in our increasingly online world," which LLMs have over-indexed on due to repetitive journalism.
- The hosts note that the tournament could easily preserve its romantic night-session mystique by establishing a cutoff so matches wrap up around midnight, rather than running into the early morning light.
[25:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1516s) UFC Timezone Chaos, Repetitive Dinners, and Sign-Off
The hosts draw a parallel between late-night tennis and the logistical absurdities seen in mixed martial arts. In the UFC, international fight cards scheduled to hit American pay-per-view prime-time slots often force athletes overseas to step into the Octagon at 6:00 a.m. local time. Preparing for a high-stakes fist fight at dawn requires either going to bed at 10:00 p.m. with the dread of an early-morning fight or completely ignoring local time zones and jet lag to treat dawn like a standard 6:00 p.m. bout.
The episode winds down with a humorous riff on dietary double standards sparked by a social media observation: society considers it entirely normal for someone to eat the exact same breakfast every single day for twenty consecutive years, yet anyone who eats the exact same dinner for a month is immediately labeled psychotic. One host wholeheartedly defends the practice, admitting to eating plain chicken and rice for dinner every single night for months and years at a time without apology. The show closes with a reminder to rate the podcast five stars on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, subscribe to the newsletter at TBPN.com, and tune in live the following morning at 11:00 a.m. Pacific sharp.
## Notable quotes
> [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1s) If you think AI will lead to human extinction by 2030, I will take that bet. If we are still alive by December 31st, 2030, you pay me 1 million USD. If not, I will pay you 10 million USD. — Joscha Bach
> [05:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=353s) Did you work with any third parties as far as this whistleblowing and coming out? — Fox News Anchor
> [05:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=353s) Not at all. This is entirely my own personal concerns about safety and things that I've seen personally and conversations I've had. — Jacob Coxin
> [15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) their most foldable iPhone yet — Dave
> [15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) thinner, lighter, faster, better battery life — John Coogan
> [18:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1139s) I'm not sold, but get this guy a job at the Apple Store. — Jordi Hays
> [20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) one of the greatest tennis matches ever — Bill Ackman
> [20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) This needs to be fixed now. It's unfair to the players, fans, and sponsors in the sports. — Bill Ackman
> [20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) in our increasingly online world — John Coogan
## Mentioned
20VC, AI 2027, Airtable, Alex Cooper, Anderson Cooper, Anthropic, Apple, Ben Shelton, Bending Spoons, Bill Ackman, Blake Scholl, Boom Supersonic, Call Her Daddy, Carlos Alcaraz, Cheri Oteri, CIA, Citizen Kane, CNN, Daniel Kokotajlo, David Senra, ESPN, Founders, Fox News, Garry Tan, Google Workspace, Halo, Instagram, iPad, iPhone Duo, Jacob Coxin, Jamie Quint, Jason Quint, Joe Rogan, John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Joscha Bach, Keith Rabois, Lawrence of Arabia, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Logan Kilpatrick, Luca Ferrari, Miro, Mountainhead, Paul Bennett, Rust, Sheryl Crow, Shopify, Steve Jobs, Tailwind CSS, TBPN, The Joe Rogan Experience, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, TikTok, UFC, US Open, Y Combinator
## Video description
Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.com
Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after.
Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella.
TBPN is made possible by:
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Console - https://www.console.com
CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com
Figma - https://www.figma.com
MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com
NYSE - https://www.nyse.com
Railway - https://railway.com
Shopify - https://www.shopify.com/
Chapters:
00:00 AI Doom Bets + How AI 2027 Is Actually Tracking
05:13 Anthropic Flags Possible Bioweapon Research + The AI Safety Media Blitz
10:34 Bending Spoons Buys Miro at an 89% Discount
14:24 Shopify Buys Tailwind + The AI Software M&A Wave
15:01 iPhone Duo Reactions: The Crease, Screen Time + Does Foldable Matter?
20:48 The 3:33 AM Tennis Problem + Is Late-Night US Open Going Too Far?
Bending Spoons 以 18 亿美元收购 Miro，估值缩水 89%
Miro 的大幅折价表明，若缺乏持续的增长加速，无论是否盈利或拥有高经常性收入，企业软件的估值倍数都会崩塌至低个位数。
主持人 John Coogan 和 Jordi Hays 审视了不断升温的 AI 安全媒体攻势，并评估了备受瞩目的“AI 2027”预测与现实世界劳动力冲击及自动化研究基准的契合程度。他们剖析了重磅科技并购交易，分析了 Bending Spoons 以 89% 的估值折价收购 Miro，以及 Shopify 对 Tailwind CSS 的收购。讨论随后转向消费科技，主持人们探讨了苹果传闻中的折叠屏“iPhone Duo”在实际权衡、尴尬屏幕比例以及生活方式影响方面的争议。本期节目最后批评了 Carlos Alcaraz 与 Ben Shelton 在美网于凌晨 3:33 结束的比赛，将深夜网球赛程与海外凌晨举行的 UFC 赛事进行了对比。
Joscha Bach 走红的 2030 年灭绝赌局表明，对无法活着领奖的末日结果进行下注存在着固有的逻辑不对称性。 (0:01)
“AI 2027”预测准确预见了前沿实验室将实现内部 AI 研究的自动化，但其关于严重的即时劳动力替代和大规模街头抗议的预测尚未成真。 (2:16)
Anthropic 关闭涉嫌生物武器研究账户的决定，凸显了能够加速合成生物学发展的前沿模型所面临的棘手军民两用挑战。 (5:13)
近期 AI 安全吹哨人行动更青睐于在有线电视新闻中密集亮相，而非对灾难性风险提供详尽的长篇技术解释。 (5:53)
AI 安全怀疑论者与观察人士日益要求提供可检验的、逐步推进的因果链，而非像 p(doom) 这样权威却不可证伪的概率数字。 (9:21)
Reading summary
TBPN hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays argue that tech discourse suffers when ungrounded probabilities replace falsifiable claims, tracing this pattern across AI safety advocacy, compressed SaaS valuations, unconvincing foldable hardware pitches, and self-defeating sports broadcasting.
Grounding AI Safety Beyond Abstract Doom Timelines (2:16)
Discussions surrounding existential AI risk are facing growing skepticism over vague, unfalsifiable probability estimates. High-profile figures frequently cite personal forecasts of a 5% to 20% 'p(doom)' over a ten-year horizon, which investor Keith Rabois and critics note cannot be verified or challenged without detailed, causal mechanics explaining how systems would fail. Cognitive scientist Joscha Bach highlighted the logical asymmetry of these scenarios by proposing a wager: paying out $10 million if humanity goes extinct by December 31, 2030, in exchange for $1 million if humanity survives.
Evaluating the influential 'AI 2027' scenario against observed conditions reveals significant divergences. While frontier labs actively deploy automated AI research assistants and Anthropic disclosed blocking user accounts for suspected dual-use biological weapons queries, broader economic fallout remains muted. AI-attributed job losses stand at approximately 17,000 per month—less than 1% of normal US monthly turnover of 1.7 million—and predicted 10,000-person public anti-AI protests have materialized as niche gatherings of fewer than 100 participants. The hosts argue that rapid media tours by whistleblowers like Jacob Coxin on cable news risk trivializing systemic technical risks into pop-culture soundbites rather than delivering rigorous public education.
SaaS Valuation Corrections in Miro and Tailwind (10:34)
The tech M&A landscape is executing sharp corrections on inflated zero-interest-rate peak valuations, underscored by Italian conglomerate Bending Spoons acquiring collaboration platform Miro for $1.79 billion. According to 20VC GP Paul Bennett, this purchase represents an 89% discount from Miro's peak private valuation of $17.5 billion. While Miro maintained solid fundamentals—generating $600 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR), operating cash-flow positive, and serving over 750 enterprise clients spending more than $100,000 annually—its multiple compressed under 3x ARR after annual growth slowed to approximately 5%.
Bending Spoons' expanding portfolio, which also includes Airtable, suggests a potential pivot toward a consolidated enterprise productivity bundle capable of cross-selling against Google Workspace. In developer infrastructure, Shopify acquired Tailwind CSS. Despite becoming a ubiquitous frontend styling standard heavily leveraged by automated coding tools, Tailwind had historically struggled to capture direct value from its software footprint, previously relying on ecosystem grants from figures like Logan Kilpatrick to maintain operations.
Aspect Ratios and Utility in Foldable Devices (15:01)
Consumer reactions to Apple's rumored 'iPhone Duo' highlight unresolved design trade-offs in foldable hardware. The hosts dismiss physical center creases as a secondary concern, arguing that the true functional friction lies in squarish aspect ratios. Unfolded displays produce severe letterboxing on modern 16:9 widescreen video and heavy pillarboxing on vertical 9:16 feeds, only natively fitting vintage 4:3 content or side-by-side multitasking.
Citing Boom Supersonic CEO Blake Scholl, the hosts emphasize that Apple has not yet articulated a philosophical 'why' for foldables comparable to Steve Jobs' original 2010 iPad positioning between smartphones and laptops. While doubling portable screen real estate enhances reading, workflows, and gaming during spontaneous downtime, manufacturers risk creating an 'anti-halo' device that drives cautious consumers back to conventional premium smartphones to avoid mechanical complexity.
Broadcast Sabotage and Midnight Sports Scheduling (20:48)
A late-night US Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton dragged on until 3:33 a.m., sparking intense criticism from fans, sports commentators, and financier Bill Ackman over compromised player welfare and destroyed television viewership. Despite extreme physical performances—including Shelton hitting 146 mph serves while an exhausted Alcaraz battled nausea on court—the match concluded long after domestic audiences had gone to sleep.
A Wall Street Journal editorial noted that premier broadcasts like college football's Iron Bowl would never be relegated to 3:00 a.m. slots, contrasting tennis's self-inflicted reach problem with mixed martial arts promotions like the UFC, which routinely force international athletes into the Octagon at 6:00 a.m. local time to accommodate US pay-per-view schedules. Observers suggest establishing a midnight tournament curfew to preserve New York's signature night-session energy without alienating broadcast audiences.
Across venture valuations, product launches, and media blitzes, the program concludes that tech institutions risk credibility when marketing narratives outstrip measurable performance, whether through unfalsifiable catastrophe timelines, unanchored software multiples, or hardware that lacks a clear purpose.
## Background
该内容由科技脱口秀频道 TBPN（Technology Brothers）于 2026 年 9 月 10 日发布在 YouTube 平台上。本期为精选浓缩版节目“Diet TBPN”，节目简介表明本集主要聚焦 AI 安全时间线推演、Anthropic 拦截疑似生化武器研发、Bending Spoons 大幅折价收购 Miro、Shopify 收购 Tailwind、苹果 iPhone Duo 折叠屏手机反应，以及美网深夜延时鏖战引发的争议。
## TL;DR
本期节目首先针对当前科技圈盛行的 AI 末日论与“p(doom)”展开激辩，结合 Joscha Bach 的对赌推文与 AI 2027 预测，比对了当下研发自动化与就业冲击的真实进展，并探讨了 Anthropic 拦截生化武器研究与安全吹哨人的公关风暴。随后，主播聚焦科技并购动态，深入分析了 Bending Spoons 以 17.9 亿美元（折价 89%）收购协作白板巨头 Miro 背后的 SaaS 估值挤泡沫与产品捆绑逻辑，以及 Shopify 对开源底层工具 Tailwind 的吸纳。针对苹果传闻中的折叠屏 iPhone Duo，主播们犀利探讨了展开后的屏幕比例硬伤、折痕心理学，以及在“反数字成瘾”浪潮下大屏设备缺乏核心存在理由的尴尬定位。最后，节目由美网凌晨 3:33 结束的激战切入，批判了赛事主办方绑架“不夜城”文化而罔顾球员极限的虚伪叙事，并漫谈至媒体写作中的 AI 套话现象与趣味日常生活观察。
## Atmosphere & style
整期节目散发着硅谷内部人士特有的机智、尖锐与高度松弛感。两位主持人配合默契且充满吐槽欲，在硬核科技推演、商业并购账本与流行文化戏谑之间无缝切换，既能一眼看穿吹哨人在顶级播客录音棚连线背后的公关算计，也能就苹果折叠屏和天天吃鸡肉饭的生活琐事展开无厘头调侃。收听体验既像在围观一场节奏飞快、信息密度极高的高智商晨会闲聊，又充满了对行业虚妄叙事的清醒解构与讽刺幽默。
## Bulletin
- [10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=634s) Bending Spoons 以 17.9 亿美元收购协同白板工具 Miro，相比后者 175 亿美元的峰值估值暴跌 89%，收购价格低于 3 倍 ARR，凸显出后期 SaaS 公司在增速放缓至 5% 后的估值崩塌与资产打包趋势。
- [05:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=313s) Anthropic 披露其拦截了一起疑似利用前沿模型研发生物武器的事件，由于无法确切区分合法学术探索与恶意意图，团队直接执行了全面封禁，突显前沿 AI 技术的双重用途风控难题。
- [05:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=313s) AI 安全吹哨人 Jacob Coxson 展开密集的媒体公关巡回，却被发现在顶级播客《Call Her Daddy》工作室连线出镜，引发外界对 AI 安全运动背后公关操盘与严肃叙事包装的广泛关注。
- [20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) 美网一场男单焦点战鏖战至凌晨 3:33 结束，球员阿尔卡拉斯体力透支濒临呕吐，引发知名投资人比尔·阿克曼及主流媒体对赛事深夜赛制和牺牲收视率的强烈批评。
## Key takeaways
- [01:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=60s) Joscha Bach 针对 2030 年 AI 毁灭人类提出的讽刺性赌局，揭示了末日论者在逻辑上的不可兑现性与荒谬本质。
- [01:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=60s) 脱离具体时间跨度谈论灭绝毫无意义，相较于宇宙热寂和太阳膨胀的物理终局，AI 风险是当下迫切需要具体逻辑推导的现实议题。
- [01:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=60s) AI 安全倡导者若将严肃的 X-risk 讨论与外星人、超自然现象混为一谈，反而会稀释公众对技术真实风险的严肃警惕。
- [03:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=199s) 检视‘AI 2027’预言发现：前沿实验室的自动化研发飞轮已开始运转，初级程序员就业承压，但万人抗议浪潮尚未成真。
- [05:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=313s) 大模型在生物等前沿科学上的‘双重用途’困境，使得民用科研探索与武器级危险操作之间的界限极其模糊。
- [09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=561s) 公众和行业怀疑论者不再满足于空洞的‘灭绝概率（p(doom)）’百分比，而迫切需要具备可证伪性、步步推导的具体灾难叙事。
- [10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=634s) Miro 虽保持正向现金流与 6 亿美元 ARR，但当增速放缓至 5% 时，资本市场乘数便迅速收缩，迫使其以近一折价格出售给 Bending Spoons。
- [10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=634s) Bending Spoons 对 Miro 的收购反映出中型软件正走向资产包整合（bundle）的趋势，借由交叉销售应对企业软件预算收紧。
- [14:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=864s) Shopify 收购底层前端框架 Tailwind，展示了虽能大幅赋能 AI 编程但自身难以变现的明星开源项目的商业归宿。
- [15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) 对于传闻中的苹果折叠屏 iPhone Duo，日常多任务分屏让物理折痕易被大脑忽略，核心体验痛点在于近似方形屏幕对现代宽银幕与竖屏视频的不兼容。
- [15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) 苹果折叠屏缺乏乔布斯当年推出 iPad 时那种对品类存在必要性的明确诠释，在全民反思‘屏幕成瘾’的背景下面临尴尬的价值主张。
- [18:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1139s) 折叠大屏虽能将突发等待场景的碎片化消遣升级为沉浸体验，但苹果极难公开以此作为正面推销话术。
- [20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) 美网将凌晨 3 点多的超时鏖战神话为‘纽约不夜城’文化，实质上严重透支选手健康并摧毁了全美黄金转播收视率。
- [24:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1452s) 体育赛事为迎合北美黄金时段而让异地选手清晨出战，与美网深夜赛制类似，均凸显了商业利益与运动员竞技规律的脱节。
## Detailed walkthrough
### [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1s) 圣诞倒计时与 YC Demo Day：走进初创企业的最前沿
节目开场，主持人打趣提醒观众“距离圣诞节还有 105 天”，随后迅速切入当日的科技要闻。今天正值 Y Combinator（YC）Demo Day，YC 首席执行官 Garry Tan 将于 11:25 作客直播间。紧接着，节目将连续连线采访本届 YC 孵化营中的 5 家不同初创公司，业务范围涵盖人形机器人、低轨卫星、AI Agent 以及信用卡金融科技（Fintech）等各个前沿领域。
主持人指出，深入了解早期初创项目是审视未来十年发展走向的最佳窗口。近期科技舆论几乎完全被头部前沿大模型实验室的动态以及苹果（Apple）的新品发布会所主导，而探访早期创业团队能够让人脚踏实地感受技术创新的源头。正如他们所言：“现在是时候与未来对话了（talk to the future）。”
---
### [01:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=60s) p(doom) 末日赌局、宇宙终局与 AI 灭绝论的逻辑悖论
面对科技圈中普遍蔓延的末日悲观主义（black pill），主持人明确表示拒绝彻底悲观，并分享了认知科学家 Joscha Bach 当天早晨发布的一条推文：“如果你认为 AI 会在 2030 年前导致人类灭绝，我愿意接下这个赌局。如果我们到了 2030 年 12 月 31 日依然活着，你给我 100 万美元；如果全人类灭绝了，我给你 1000 万美元。”这个看似荒诞的赌局用极佳的幽默讽刺了末日论者的逻辑漏洞——当人类真正灭绝时，赢家根本无法兑现奖金。
两位主播由此展开对“灭绝概率”（p(doom)）概念的深度剖析。他们指出，脱离时间跨度去谈论人类灭绝毫无意义。从天体物理学角度来看，人类终将走向消亡：
- **终极热寂**：默认时间是 $10^{100}$ 年（即 1 古戈尔年），届时恒星坍缩，宇宙迎来热寂；
- **太阳膨胀危机**：在 10 亿年内，太阳体积膨胀就会吞没地球，因此人类必须在 10 亿年内实现星际移民（主持人调侃 SpaceX 和埃隆·马斯克虽然偶有延期，但肯定能在 10 亿年内搞定）。
相比这些遥远的物理规律，AI 风险则是眼下迫在眉睫的议题。当前 AI 安全阵营正在全美掀起舆论公关风暴（press tour），例如预测机构 AI 2027 的发起人 Daniel 登上了《The Joe Rogan Experience》播客。虽然他在节目中给大众通俗拆解了 AI 存在的结构性风险，但 Joe Rogan 经常把话题带偏，从 AI Agent 骤然跳跃到外星人 UFO、心灵感应和遥距感应（remote viewing）。这种发散虽然极具娱乐效果并扩大了讨论度，但也在无形中将严肃的 AI 存在性风险（X-risk）与飞碟、超自然现象混为一谈，反而削弱了公众对 AI 威胁现实性的警惕。
---
### [03:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=199s) 检视“AI 2027”对 2026 年 9 月的预言：经济颠覆、就业冲击与反 AI 游行
主持人拿出了 AI 2027 针对“2026 年 9 月”所做的具体推演，逐条比对当下的真实进展：
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: AI 2027 预测与现实对照流程
accDescr: 对比 AI 2027 在研发自动化、就业冲击以及社会抗议三方面的预测与实际现状
subgraph P["AI 2027 预言 (2026年9月)"]
P1["AI 研发自循环自动化"]
P2["初级程序员面临重大经济颠覆"]
P3["万人反 AI 大游行与股市涨 30%"]
end
subgraph R["现实跟踪现状"]
R1["各大实验室宣称拥有'实习生级'自动化研发能力"]
R2["每月约 1.7 万个 AI 替代岗位，但劳动力市场整体强劲"]
R3["旧金山仅爆发数十人规模的安全抗议，尚未形成万人浪潮"]
end
P1 --> R1
P2 --> R2
P3 --> R3
```
- **预言一：AI 产生重大经济颠覆并开始加速 AI 研发自身**。现实中，各大前沿实验室均已证实他们拥有自动化的 AI 研究系统，即便目前能力仍被称为“仅仅是个实习生（just an intern）”，但自我迭代的飞轮已经转动，模型性能正以更快节奏攀升。
- **预言二：初级软件工程师（Junior SWE）面临剧烈冲击，而监督与检验 AI 团队的管理层则蓬勃发展**。从数据来看，当前每月因 AI 直接导致的失业约有 17,000 人。尽管这一数字在全美每月 170 万总离职/失业人数中占比不足 1%（且每月伴随更多的新增招聘与岗位流动），但对初级程序员生态的结构性压力已开始显现。
- **预言三：股市上涨 30%、防务合同激增，以及爆发多达 1 万人规模的“反 AI 大游行”**。主播指出，万人游行目前尚未发生。虽然旧金山近期确实发生了一次 AI 安全抗议，但现场参与者其实不足百人，仅有数十人聚集。不过，随着 Cheryl Crow 和 Cheri Oteri 等名人在 Instagram 呼吁公众像阿尔巴尼亚抗议那样走上街头抗争，加之大众媒体的密集曝光，反 AI 情绪的社会动员正在积蓄能量。
---
### [05:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=313s) Anthropic 紧急拦截生物武器研发，AI 安全哨兵登台 Fox 与 CNN
AI 安全的现实风险又添实锤。根据《纽约时报》当天的最新报道，Anthropic 披露其拦截了一起疑似利用其大模型开发生物武器的事件。报告指出，某些科研人员在使用 Anthropic 模型进行生物学课题研究时触发了风控，由于技术团队无法确切判定该研究是正当合法的学术探索还是恶意意图，公司决定果断全面封禁并终止该项工作。主持人强调，这暴露出前沿大模型的“双重用途（dual use）”两难困境——正如核电站研究与原子弹研制共享底层物理知识一样，前沿生物学代码和实验方案极易在民用探索与生化武器之间滑向危险边缘。
与此同时，前 OpenAI 员工、高调发声的安全吹哨人 Jacob Coxson 正式展开媒体巡游，先后亮相 Fox News、Anderson Cooper 的 CNN 连线以及《华尔街日报》长篇报道。主持人调侃道，观众原本期待他能带来长达 3 到 5 小时的播客长谈，像《终结者》剧本一样详尽拆解人类毁灭的推演分支，但从目前的短篇访谈表现看，他的料似乎不够支撑这么长的节目深度。
在 Fox News 的连线画面中，眼尖的网民发现了一个极其幽默的细节：
- 采访中主持人追问：“作为吹哨人站出来，你是否与任何第三方组织有合作？”Jacob 坚决否认：“完全没有，这纯粹是我个人的安全担忧、个人经历以及私下对话。”
- 然而观众紧接着发现：**这位刚离职一天的吹哨人，出镜背景居然是在全美顶级知名播客《Call Her Daddy》的豪华录音棚内**。两位主播捧腹大笑，吐槽这不仅证明“其背后运作远比想象中深水”，更显示出整个 AI 安全社区正在倾注庞大资源，企图将本周打造成引爆大众安全焦虑的“超级公关周”。
- 虽然后续他在 Anderson Cooper 的节目中补充解释称自己确实得到了“一帮朋友”的协助，但在硅谷，“朋友”与“专业公关/利益团体”的界限向来极其模糊。主播们推测，他的故事远未结束，后续大概率会顺理成章地开启新模式——无论是创办新的 AI 实验室、发币、出书、拍纪录片，还是转型做 SaaS 创业公司。
讨论最后顺带提及了一年前上映的 AI 末日题材小众讽刺电影《Mountain Head》，片中嘲讽了患有严重末日妄想症的极客角色。该片设想的 AI 灾难源自 Deepfake 制造的虚假国际冲突，进而引爆现实中大国之间的真正战争。两位主持人对此调侃，虽然对 Deepfake 导致直接热战的剧本存疑，但面对当下层出不穷的末日叙事，流行文化显然已经提前打好了防御掩体。
### [09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=561s) AI 安全需要具体叙事，而非空洞的“毁灭概率”
在播客中花上 20 分钟详细拆解 AI 走向失控的完整推导过程，虽然篇幅冗长，但听众其实非常买账。目前公众对这类题材充满兴趣，甚至许多 AI 安全怀疑论者也一直在呼吁行业提供更具叙事性的场景：人类究竟是如何一步步走向坏结局的。人们很容易把“人类毁灭概率”（p(doom)）简单粗暴地归结为一个数字，但空洞的百分比远不如具体故事有说服力。权威人士仅凭身份与声望抛出“我有很深见解，我认为概率是 5% 或 20%”，虽然能在社交媒体上迅速疯传，但缺乏推导细节。
大众渴望看到一个可以追踪、并且在各个环节都具备“可证伪性”的逻辑链条。Keith Rabois 前一天就谈到了这种论调的困境：如果有人宣称“未来 10 年内有 10% 的灾难概率”，外界根本无法证伪；但如果推演指出“核武器将在具体某个时间节点因何种漏洞被发射、具体流程如何一步步失控”，甚至细化到 AI 导致的失业潮究竟以怎样的路径传导，这种具体推论就可以被逐一验证和审视。
---
### [10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=634s) Bending Spoons 以 17.9 亿美元收购 Miro：SaaS 估值泡沫与并购整合
意大利应用控股巨头 Bending Spoons 正式以 17.9 亿美元收购协同白板工具 Miro。20VC 的普通合伙人 Paul Bonnet 随即发布了经典的“这笔钱究竟分给了谁”的股权分配分析。这笔交易相比 Miro 此前 175 亿美元的巅峰估值直接暴跌了 89%，收购价格甚至低于其 ARR（年度经常性收入）的 3 倍。
这引发了对 Bending Spoons 并购整合策略的热议。不同于传统认知中 Miro 对应现代协同演示文稿与灵感看板、Airtable 对应现代化电子表格的单品逻辑，Bending Spoons 似乎正尝试将这些知名产品打造成一个协同办公产品包（bundle）。以往 Bending Spoons 更倾向于买下知名品牌后削减成本并独立高效运营，但这次展现出了清晰的资产组合（rollup）形态：如果一家初创公司购买了 Airtable 就能附赠 Miro，或者通过交叉销售实现协同，就能有效缓解中小团队在软件采购上的预算矛盾。现实中，初创企业往往纠结于每个工具单座席每月各掏 20 美元，还是干脆以每座席 15 美元打包使用 Google 全家桶；若将这些垂直现代化工具打包，整体价值完全可能大于各部分之和。
这一交易也为当前的后期风险投资敲响了警钟。一些在极高估值轮次融资的公司虽然拥有优秀的团队和赛道，但在商业化上距离支撑千亿甚至万亿美元的预期相去甚远，几年后可能同样不得不面临折价 90% 贱卖的命运。尽管所谓的“SaaS 灭顶之灾”在 Salesforce 等大型巨头身上并未体现为断崖式的收入下滑，但在中细分领域，由 AI 辅助快速构建内部工具的趋势依然让传统纯功能型 SaaS 感受到了压力。Jason 指出，Miro 当前拥有 6 亿美元 ARR、超过 750 家年付费逾 10 万美元的客户且现金流为正；但正如 Jamie Quint 所言，"连续数年 ARR 增速仅维持在 5% 就会导致这种结果"。资本市场给予高估值倍数完全建立在加速增长的前提之上，一旦增长停滞，乘数就会迅速被打回原形。
- **Miro 巅峰估值**：175 亿美元
- **Bending Spoons 收购价格**：17.9 亿美元（折价约 89%）
- **收购估值倍数**：低于 3 倍 ARR
- **Miro 核心财务与客户指标**：ARR 达 6 亿美元，拥有逾 750 家年支出超 10 万美元的客户，已实现正向现金流，但年增速放缓至 5% 左右
- **节目趣闻**：Founders 播客主持人 David Senra 恰好将在周日发布专访 Bending Spoons 联合创始人兼 CEO Luca Ferrari 的节目，被主持人戏称是“为了宣发播客而精准卡点公布的巨额并购”。
---
### [14:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=864s) Shopify 收购 Tailwind：AI 时代底层工具的商业归宿
前端样式框架 Tailwind 宣布已被电商巨头 Shopify 收购。Tailwind 作为广泛应用的基础框架，在近几年极大加速了 AI 辅助软件开发的落地流程，然而作为底层开发基础设施，它本身却难以直接将这种生产力爆发全面转化为高额的商业变现。
此前，行业内多位知名人士（包括 OpenAI 的 Logan Kilpatrick 等）曾通过提供资助（grant）的形式来维系该团队的长期开发。这种由社区自发资助明星开源项目的时刻曾让人倍感振奋，而如今 Tailwind 在 Shopify 体系内找到了一个稳固且适配的落地归宿，被主播们视为一个相当圆满且令人乐观的结局。
---
### [15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) iPhone Duo 折叠屏反应：折痕争议、屏幕比例与存在意义之争
针对前一天围绕传闻中苹果折叠屏设备“iPhone Duo”的讨论，聊天区观众 Sally Analysis 提出了关键问题：“你们对折痕（crease）怎么看？”苹果在官方渲染中极擅长借助打光与视角隐藏折痕，但两位主播直言“完全不在乎折痕问题”。在多任务处理、左右分屏运行两款 App 的日常模式下，中间那道分界线根本不会影响使用，正如球迷在橄榄球比赛日习惯用四台带黑边的电视拼屏看球一样，用户大脑会自动忽略屏幕物理接缝。
真正的体验短板反而在于其展开后的屏幕纵横比（aspect ratio）。现代流媒体视频要么是 2.39:1 / 2.35:1 的宽银幕电影，要么是标准的 16:9 视频，在这块近似正方形的内屏上播放，上下都会留下巨大的黑边；如果选择放大填满屏幕，两侧画面又会被严重裁切。而对于竖屏短视频，其两侧又会出现类似 iPad 上的大黑条。苹果在发布演示中展示的短片甚至专门采用了复古的 4:3 比例，这种比例对播放上世纪七八十年代的内容非常友好，无需做摇移扫描（pan and scan），但在现代内容消费场景下显得十分尴尬。此外，这款产品最终在销售周期中能占据多大份额仍充满变数——究竟是像 iPhone Pro 系列一样大受欢迎，还是仅仅占到整体出货量的 1%、10% 还是 30%？
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: 假想 iPhone Duo 媒体播放比例适配问题
accDescr: 展示主流内容在折叠屏展开后的近似方形屏幕上的显示局限与裁切妥协。
subgraph ContentTypes["内容源格式"]
A["宽银幕电影 (2.35:1)"]
B["现代视频 (16:9)"]
C["垂直短视频 (9:16)"]
D["复古内容 (4:3)"]
end
subgraph DisplayIssue["展开内屏 (近似 4:3 或方形)"]
E["上下出现极宽黑边 (或缩放裁切画面两侧)"]
F["两侧出现大黑边 (类似 iPad 播放)"]
G["原生完美填满屏幕 (无需 Pan & Scan)"]
end
A --> E
B --> E
C --> F
D --> G
```
两人还借用了播客听众 comedian Dave 的锐评打趣道：“这是苹果迄今为止‘最能折叠的 iPhone’（most foldable iPhone yet）”。未来如果推出第二代甚至双折叠版本，大概会被命名为“iPhone Quattro”，甚至一路演变到折叠 20 次、像手风琴或折扇一样的“iPhone Fan”。
这种激进的产品形态也会催生截然相反的用户心态：对追求新奇、大屏和极致排面的群体来说，它是当之无愧的“光环机（Halo Phone）”；但对另一些人而言，它反而成了“反光环机（Anti-Halo Phone）”——让人看后如释重负地转头去买轻薄、续航更好、更便宜的常规直板旗舰机。
最后，超音速客机公司 Boom Supersonic 首席执行官 Blake Scholl 的评价引起了共鸣：“当年史蒂夫·乔布斯发布 iPad 时，花了极大力气向全世界解释为什么需要这样一个全新的产品品类；而苹果如今造出了一款看似优秀的折叠屏手机，却完全没有说明‘折叠屏手机究竟因何而必须存在’。”面对已经每天盯在手机上数个小时的用户群体，苹果若要正面向大众解释为什么他们每时每刻都需要一块更大的随身屏幕，其立场本身就显得颇为微妙而尴尬。
### [18:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1139s) 大屏手机的价值：沉浸体验还是数字沉迷？
两位主持人继续探讨苹果折叠屏设备（iPhone Duo）的潜在使用场景。辩论的焦点在于，更大的屏幕是否能带来真正有价值、脱离“大脑降智”（less brain rotty）的优质数字体验。一位主持人打趣道，自己绝不会在小手机屏幕上看经典史诗巨作《阿拉伯的劳伦斯》（*Lawrence of Arabia*），但如果屏幕显示面积翻倍，他愿意直接在上面欣赏《阿拉伯的劳伦斯》或《公民凯恩》（*Citizen Kane*）。
另一位主持人虽然承认大屏在观影或重度体验上有其合理用例，但也指出了苹果面临的尴尬处境：整个社会都在关注手机成瘾、儿童与成年人的屏幕时间过长问题，苹果总不能跳出来直接向用户推销“我们知道你每天花好几个小时在无脑刷手机，所以我们给你配了一块更大的屏幕”。不过反方认为，苹果在营销上完全可以强调积极向上的面向——发邮件、联络好友、发短信、看科普教育视频；即便有让人沉迷无聊的小游戏，也有像《Rust》或《光环》（*Halo*）这样承载一代人青春的核心正面回忆。此外，大屏折叠机作为主力机随身携带，完美解决了无法预期的碎片等待场景（例如在车管所 DMV 排队一小时、候机延误等），用户不必额外特意带一台 iPad。
- **核心观点交锋**：大屏能将手机碎片化娱乐提升为高质量内容消费（如经典电影），但与当下对抗“屏幕时间成瘾”的公共议题存在营销冲突。
- **便携优势**：折叠屏常驻口袋，在突发漫长等待时能随时提供媲美平板的沉浸体验，省去了随身携带 iPad 的繁琐。
---
### [20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) 凌晨 3:33 的美网狂欢：是纽约硬核浪漫还是职业荒谬？
话题转到体育界的一场轩然大波：一场在凌晨 3:33 刚刚结束的美网（US Open）网球比赛引发了广泛的愤怒。《华尔街日报》（*The Wall Street Journal*）发表了言辞犀利的评论，直言“凌晨 3:33 结束的网球比赛毫无酷感可言，简直荒谬绝伦”。亿万富翁投资人比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）虽然盛赞这是“网球史上最伟大的比赛之一”，但同时也强烈呼吁必须立刻改革，因为几乎没有观众能在现场或电视前看到结局，这对球员、球迷和赛事赞助商都是极其不公平的。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: 美网深夜赛制争议示意图
accDescr: 展示美网深夜开赛导致的影响及各方态度对比
subgraph MatchContext["赛事现场实况"]
A["本·谢尔顿 (Ben Shelton) 狂轰 146 mph 发球爆冷"] --> B["阿尔卡拉斯 (Carlos Alcaraz) 体力濒临透支呕吐"]
B --> C["比赛鏖战至凌晨 03:33 结束"]
end
subgraph Reactions["各界反应与评价"]
C --> D["媒体与阿克曼呼吁改制：<br/>对球员身体、转播收视极其不公"]
C --> E["美网传统叙事：<br/>'不夜城'浪漫、深夜歌剧式奇观"]
end
```
两位主持人回顾了这场焦点对决：本·谢尔顿（Ben Shelton）爆冷击败卡洛斯·阿尔卡拉斯（Carlos Alcaraz）。比赛中谢尔顿轰出了高达 146 英里/小时（约 235 公里/小时）的重炮发球，而阿尔卡拉斯在极其残酷的体能消耗下甚至挥手驱赶转播摄像机，因为他当时正难受得要对着毛巾呕吐。《华尔街日报》专栏文章辛辣嘲弄了主办方试图将美网深夜比赛包装成一种“史诗级体验”的虚伪营销，讽刺球迷们不得不假装自己没在谢尔顿拿下第二盘后就刷牙上床睡觉。文章指出，美网常年将深夜开赛打造成与 23 美元的 Honey Deuce 鸡尾酒同等重要的赛事文化符号，借口是“纽约是不夜城”，但现实是哪怕洋基球场也极少打到凌晨三点半，让这项急需全美关注度的大赛在连夏威夷观众都觉得太晚的时间段结束，无异于直接埋葬了顶流收视率。
- **比赛关键细节**：Ben Shelton 击出 146 mph 发球完成爆冷，Carlos Alcaraz 赛中身体透支几近呕吐。
- **各方反应**：Bill Ackman 呼吁调整赛程（提前开打或设置宵禁截止）；媒体批评赛事过度神话“深夜纽约文化”反而损害了运动推广。
---
### [24:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1452s) 媒体陈词滥调与时差死斗：从网球延误到跨时区格斗
在朗读《华尔街日报》文绉绉的专栏排比句时，主持人调侃这种浮夸文风简直像是“AI 垃圾内容”（AI slop），并由此引申到了当下媒体写作中被大语言模型（LLM）滥用的套话。例如“在我们日益网络化的世界中”（in our increasingly online world）这一句式，最初源自记者写网络文化报道时的习惯用语，被大量抓取训练进入模型后又被疯狂吐出，导致现在很多人看到这类固定套话就反感。
回到体育赛程问题，主持人指出网球赛事完全可以在午夜左右收官，既能保留夜晚的氛围感，又不至于过度摧残选手的生理极限。他们将此与 UFC 的跨时区赛事相提并论：为了迁就美国本土的付费观看（PPV）黄金时段，选手经常被迫在比赛举办地当地时间的清晨 6 点登台展开生死对决。这意味着拳手要么前一晚早早上床、凌晨起床在极度困倦中备战，要么整夜不睡熬到清晨。
节目尾声，两人又跳脱到日常生活的无厘头幽默观察：如果一个人连续 20 年每天早餐都吃一模一样的食物，大家都觉得很正常；但如果有人连续一个月每天晚餐都吃同样的食物，身边人就会觉得他是个“神经病”。一位主持人对此坦然表示，自己曾经连续好几个月甚至好几年每天晚餐都只吃鸡肉配米饭（chicken and rice），根本没觉得有任何问题。最后，节目在常规的播客评分呼吁和对听众的祝福声中欢乐收尾。
- **AI 流行套话**：讨论了如 "in our increasingly online world" 这类从新闻报道被吸收至大语言模型、最终导致泛滥成灾的典型套话。
- **跨时区转播代价**：UFC 赛事为迎合北美收视率，曾让选手在当地时间清晨 6 点进行高强度格斗。
- **生活冷幽默**：早餐千篇一律被视为自律，晚餐连续一个月吃鸡肉配米饭却常被戏称为精神异常。
## Notable quotes
> [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1s) 现在是时候与未来对话了（talk to the future）。
> [01:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=60s) 如果你认为 AI 会在 2030 年前导致人类灭绝，我愿意接下这个赌局。如果我们到了 2030 年 12 月 31 日依然活着，你给我 100 万美元；如果全人类灭绝了，我给你 1000 万美元。 — Joscha Bach
> [03:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=199s) 仅仅是个实习生（just an intern）
> [05:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=313s) 完全没有，这纯粹是我个人的安全担忧、个人经历以及私下对话。 — Jacob Coxson
> [09:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=561s) 未来 10 年内有 10% 的灾难概率 — Keith Rabois
> [10:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=634s) 连续数年 ARR 增速仅维持在 5% 就会导致这种结果 — Jamie Quint
> [15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) 这是苹果迄今为止‘最能折叠的 iPhone’（most foldable iPhone yet） — Dave
> [15:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=901s) 当年史蒂夫·乔布斯发布 iPad 时，花了极大力气向全世界解释为什么需要这样一个全新的产品品类；而苹果如今造出了一款看似优秀的折叠屏手机，却完全没有说明‘折叠屏手机究竟因何而必须存在’。 — Blake Scholl
> [20:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1248s) 凌晨 3:33 结束的网球比赛毫无酷感可言，简直荒谬绝伦 — The Wall Street Journal
> [24:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA&t=1452s) 在我们日益网络化的世界中（in our increasingly online world）
## Mentioned
TBPN, John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Y Combinator, Garry Tan, Joscha Bach, SpaceX, Elon Musk, Daniel, The Joe Rogan Experience, Joe Rogan, Cheryl Crow, Cheri Oteri, Anthropic, The New York Times, Jacob Coxson, Fox News, CNN, Anderson Cooper, The Wall Street Journal, Call Her Daddy, Mountain Head, Keith Rabois, Bending Spoons, Miro, Paul Bonnet, 20VC, Airtable, Google, Salesforce, Jamie Quint, David Senra, Luca Ferrari, Founders Podcast, Tailwind, Shopify, Logan Kilpatrick, OpenAI, Apple, iPhone Duo, Sally Analysis, iPad, Dave, Blake Scholl, Boom Supersonic, Steve Jobs, Lawrence of Arabia, Citizen Kane, Rust, Halo, US Open, Bill Ackman, Ben Shelton, Carlos Alcaraz, Honey Deuce, UFC
## Video description
Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.com
Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after.
Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella.
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Chapters:
00:00 AI Doom Bets + How AI 2027 Is Actually Tracking
05:13 Anthropic Flags Possible Bioweapon Research + The AI Safety Media Blitz
10:34 Bending Spoons Buys Miro at an 89% Discount
14:24 Shopify Buys Tailwind + The AI Software M&A Wave
15:01 iPhone Duo Reactions: The Crease, Screen Time + Does Foldable Matter?
20:48 The 3:33 AM Tennis Problem + Is Late-Night US Open Going Too Far?
[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEAwF6oDiSA)
Source quotes
[0:01] 现在是时候与未来对话了（talk to the future）。
[1:00] Joscha Bach: 如果你认为 AI 会在 2030 年前导致人类灭绝，我愿意接下这个赌局。如果我们到了 2030 年 12 月 31 日依然活着，你给我 100 万美元；如果全人类灭绝了，我给你 1000 万美元。
[3:19] 仅仅是个实习生（just an intern）
[5:13] Jacob Coxson: 完全没有，这纯粹是我个人的安全担忧、个人经历以及私下对话。
[9:21] Keith Rabois: 未来 10 年内有 10% 的灾难概率
[10:34] Jamie Quint: 连续数年 ARR 增速仅维持在 5% 就会导致这种结果
[15:01] Dave: 这是苹果迄今为止‘最能折叠的 iPhone’（most foldable iPhone yet）
[15:01] Blake Scholl: 当年史蒂夫·乔布斯发布 iPad 时，花了极大力气向全世界解释为什么需要这样一个全新的产品品类；而苹果如今造出了一款看似优秀的折叠屏手机，却完全没有说明‘折叠屏手机究竟因何而必须存在’。
[20:48] The Wall Street Journal: 凌晨 3:33 结束的网球比赛毫无酷感可言，简直荒谬绝伦
[24:12] 在我们日益网络化的世界中（in our increasingly online world）
Source quotes
[0:01] Joscha Bach: If you think AI will lead to human extinction by 2030, I will take that bet. If we are still alive by December 31st, 2030, you pay me 1 million USD. If not, I will pay you 10 million USD.
[5:53] Fox News Anchor: Did you work with any third parties as far as this whistleblowing and coming out?
[5:53] Jacob Coxin: Not at all. This is entirely my own personal concerns about safety and things that I've seen personally and conversations I've had.
[15:01] Dave: their most foldable iPhone yet
[15:01] John Coogan: thinner, lighter, faster, better battery life
[18:59] Jordi Hays: I'm not sold, but get this guy a job at the Apple Store.
[20:48] Bill Ackman: one of the greatest tennis matches ever
[20:48] Bill Ackman: This needs to be fixed now. It's unfair to the players, fans, and sponsors in the sports.
[20:48] John Coogan: in our increasingly online world
Original transcript
[0:01] 105
[0:03] days.
[0:03] >> 105 days till Christmas. Get ready.
[0:06] Should we do a little bit of a news
[0:08] roundup? We have uh Y Cominator Demade
[0:10] going on today. We got Gary Tan coming
[0:12] on the show 11:25. Then we're going
[0:14] backto back with five different startups
[0:17] that are in this YC batch doing
[0:19] everything from humanoid robots uh to
[0:22] satellites to AI agents and credit
[0:25] cards, fintech. We're going all over the
[0:26] place giving you a tour of what's going
[0:28] on in uh the startup world. Uh which I
[0:32] personally enjoy because it's a good way
[0:33] to sort of ground yourself in what's
[0:35] happening in the uh in the at the early
[0:38] stage. There's so much discussion about
[0:40] what's going on uh among the big labs
[0:42] and Apple obviously in the news
[0:44] yesterday. Uh it can be
[0:46] all-encompassing, but the big the big
[0:48] story
[0:49] >> it's time to talk to the future.
[0:51] >> Talk to the future. the next.
[0:52] >> No, that's really what it gives you a
[0:54] little bit of insight into what things
[0:55] are going to look like in a decade. Some
[0:57] people don't think we're going to be
[0:59] here in a decade.
[1:00] >> They don't
[1:02] never black pill. I saw a good post this
[1:04] morning. Uh Josha Bach said, "If you
[1:08] think AI will lead to human extinction
[1:10] by 2030, I will take that bet.
[1:12] >> If we are still alive by December 31st,
[1:15] 2030, you pay me 1 million USD. If not,
[1:18] I will pay you 10 million USD."
[1:21] That's a good good good uh joke. Yeah,
[1:24] >> there's a lot of people out there that
[1:25] should uh take the bet. I think
[1:27] >> why there's no I mean that that's the
[1:30] whole joke is um yeah I mean with a lot
[1:33] of these the the arguments break down a
[1:35] lot of things break down. It's also just
[1:37] so difficult to to put a pdoom over time
[1:41] because you because you have to time
[1:42] bound it because uh you know general
[1:46] scientists will say humanity will go
[1:48] extinct eventually. The default number
[1:51] is 10 to the 100 years. That's a Google
[1:55] years from now. It's heat death of the
[1:56] universe. The stars collapse. Yeah. Even
[1:58] in a billion years, we're going to be in
[2:00] trouble because the sun will be larger
[2:02] than the earth. Will will have expanded
[2:05] to become encompassing the earth. So,
[2:07] you got to get off Earth in the next
[2:09] billion years. We're working on that
[2:10] with SpaceX. Elon occasionally delayed.
[2:13] I think he's going to make it before the
[2:14] next billion years. The AI thing
[2:16] obviously much more pressing. all sorts
[2:18] of hacks and agentic capabilities, lots
[2:22] of debate going on, and a wall-to-wall
[2:24] press tour from a lot of the safety
[2:27] community. Daniel from AI 2027 was on
[2:32] Joe Rogan. It was an interesting listen.
[2:34] He makes a lot of good points. He breaks
[2:35] things down for a broader audience and
[2:37] then Rogan will take him in these very
[2:38] funny directions just being like, "Yeah,
[2:40] these AI agents are crazy. Let's talk
[2:42] about UFOs." It's actually like the
[2:44] meme. They're like, "Oh, yeah." like
[2:46] like have you heard about remote viewing
[2:48] and uh and he breaks down remote viewing
[2:51] for him and Daniel has to be like I'm a
[2:53] little more skeptical of that but I'm a
[2:54] real believer in X-risk and so I think
[2:57] the net effect is going to be more
[2:59] awareness about the topic more
[3:01] discussion about the topic it might just
[3:02] wind up muddling it because people now
[3:04] put X-risk in the aliens UFOs remote
[3:09] viewing camp as like oh it's like a fun
[3:11] thing that Joe Rogan talks about it's
[3:13] like becomes more abstract as opposed to
[3:14] being more concrete, but I don't really
[3:16] know. We'll see. Uh, what did AI 2027
[3:20] predict for September of 2026? He said,
[3:22] "This is the stage where AI becomes
[3:24] economically disruptive and starts
[3:26] accelerating AI research itself." We got
[3:28] the second part. The labs are all saying
[3:31] we have an automated AI research. Uh,
[3:33] uh,
[3:33] >> just an intern.
[3:34] >> Intern,
[3:35] >> just an intern.
[3:36] >> Yeah, but that's acceler accelerating
[3:38] and and the models seem to be getting
[3:39] better at a faster clip. The
[3:41] economically disruptive is the is the
[3:44] capability jobs. Junior software
[3:46] engineering faces major disruption.
[3:48] People managing and checking AI teams
[3:50] prosper. So junior software engineering
[3:52] major disruption. We'll see. We'll see
[3:55] if uh if if if that plays out this
[3:57] month. The job market has been pretty
[3:59] strong. We we map that there's something
[4:01] like 17,000 monthly AI related job
[4:05] losses. But uh that that's less than 1%
[4:08] of the 1.7 million jobs that are lost
[4:11] every month. But then of course there
[4:12] are more than 1.7 million new jobs and
[4:15] new hireers because people change jobs a
[4:17] lot. And so uh that's often what's going
[4:20] on. Markets and politics. The scenario
[4:22] forecasts a 30% stock market rise during
[4:25] 2026 and a 10,000 person anti-AI protest
[4:29] and growing defense contracts. That
[4:30] seems
[4:31] >> that feels notable that we haven't we
[4:32] haven't had a protest.
[4:34] >> There's been a protest. There was a
[4:35] protest in San Francisco uh a safety
[4:38] protest.
[4:38] >> It was not nearly 10,000 people.
[4:40] >> It was like more like under 100 but
[4:43] dozens. Uh but yeah, I mean it seems
[4:45] like uh the Joe Rogan experience, the
[4:47] the national news tour, if you're going
[4:49] to get 10,000 people in the streets,
[4:51] like this is this is a key step in the
[4:54] in the chain.
[4:55] >> Well, Cheryl Crowe was over on Instagram
[4:57] highlighting
[4:58] uh AI risk and someone was saying Sherry
[5:02] Oi, is that is that a celebrity
[5:05] something says take to the streets like
[5:07] they did in Albania all of us so we
[5:09] can't be ignored. So there's I guess
[5:11] calls for
[5:12] >> protests. Yeah. And there was another uh
[5:14] there was another risk incident uh
[5:17] reported by the New York Times today.
[5:18] Anthropic says it blocked possible
[5:20] efforts to build biological weapons. In
[5:22] a new report, the AI startup added that
[5:24] it could not determine if the research
[5:25] was legitimate or nefarious, leading the
[5:27] company to shut down the work. So some
[5:29] scientists were using an anthropic model
[5:31] to work on biological research and the
[5:34] anthropic team flagged it as, hey, this
[5:36] could be in the in the line of a
[5:38] boweapon. We don't know that that's what
[5:40] this person was trying to do, but we're
[5:42] going to shut it down because of course
[5:44] a lot of the research that goes into
[5:46] building a nuclear power plant is the
[5:47] same that goes into a nuclear bomb. And
[5:49] same thing, these are a lot of dual use
[5:51] technologies. Uh anyway, anything else
[5:53] to say about Jacob Coxin, who uh I think
[5:56] we'll have much more uh news. He went on
[5:59] Fox and Anderson Cooper, CNN, and I'm
[6:02] sure there will be a much deeper dive at
[6:05] some point. It feels like there's going
[6:06] to be a It is interesting that with the
[6:09] launch of the Post and the Wall Street
[6:11] Journal article, there was not a 1-hour
[6:13] three-hour podcast. Like, we didn't get
[6:15] our situational awareness. Like, I I I
[6:18] want the 5 hour sit down with someone.
[6:20] >> Based on the based on the interviews, I
[6:22] it doesn't really feel like he's got an
[6:24] hour of content. Okay,
[6:25] >> maybe he maybe he does. But it's the
[6:27] best because you can just tell the story
[6:29] of the Terminator for an hour and like
[6:31] take someone on that journey and that
[6:32] can actually be in service of updating
[6:35] people about X-risk. You can you you can
[6:37] you can tell the full story of how you
[6:39] think things might play out. There's so
[6:41] many different scenarios that are the
[6:42] bad ending worth avoiding. You can
[6:45] illustrate that. I don't know. Yeah, I I
[6:47] >> Yeah, I thought it was um
[6:48] >> I think it's coming. I think it's
[6:50] coming. Refresh your podcast player in a
[6:52] week.
[6:52] >> Let's pull up this clip. This is from
[6:54] Fox News last night. their industry
[6:55] needs to be regulated as soon as
[6:57] possible.
[6:59] >> Did do you work with any third parties
[7:02] as far as this whistleblowing and coming
[7:04] out?
[7:06] >> Not at all. This is entirely my own
[7:08] personal concerns about safety and
[7:10] things that I've seen personally and
[7:12] conversations I've had. He's serious
[7:13] that they think their industry
[7:15] >> A lot of people are keying on to the
[7:16] background here. They're like, "Wait,
[7:18] this guy just
[7:19] >> he quit yesterday
[7:20] >> and he already has a podcast studio."
[7:22] People are like, "Is that someone else's
[7:23] podcast studio?" And so I looked at the
[7:25] image, tried to figure out whose podcast
[7:27] studio is in. It's Caller Daddy.
[7:29] >> Boom.
[7:29] >> Yeah.
[7:29] >> This goes way deeper.
[7:32] >> Welcome to Caller Daddy. I have been so
[7:35] excited to meet I can't believe we've
[7:37] never really met.
[7:38] >> Uh surprise. There's a chance we could
[7:40] all die like that. That is coming soon.
[7:41] >> Thank you for spending the time with me.
[7:43] >> I do expect it at some point as they dig
[7:46] in here based on how much
[7:49] >> Yeah.
[7:49] >> sort of it seems like there's very much
[7:52] a significant push. Yeah.
[7:54] >> From the overarching AI safety community
[7:58] >> to make this week all about
[8:01] >> he clarified this a little bit on uh uh
[8:04] on Anderson Cooper saying that he like
[8:06] worked with a bunch of friends and
[8:08] where's the line between like friends
[8:10] and professional like you know we're all
[8:12] a big family here. We're all friends. So
[8:14] that like the answer could be muddled. I
[8:17] don't know. I'm sure we'll find out more
[8:18] soon. Anyway, uh you think he's going to
[8:20] launch a Neolab? think he's gonna drop a
[8:22] coin, book, movie. There's gonna be
[8:25] something. You know, the story's not
[8:26] over. Story is not over. There's going
[8:28] to be something. Maybe he launches a
[8:30] software as a service company.
[8:32] >> It's crazy.
[8:32] >> And then his spoon gets back.
[8:35] >> Trying to transition here.
[8:36] >> No, it's uh somebody just said Sebastian
[8:39] says he's a del with a crazy pdoom.
[8:41] That's a quote from Mountain Head. Oh,
[8:43] yeah. Remember? Which is now out maybe a
[8:45] year a year ago.
[8:46] >> I remember you watched it.
[8:47] >> Which is um Yeah, maybe.
[8:49] >> But that was that was sort of a niche
[8:50] film. It didn't it didn't go as big as I
[8:53] >> Yeah. I didn't think it was a good film,
[8:55] but it had some funny moments
[8:57] >> and it and it was about like an AI
[8:58] apocalypse, right? They go to like a
[9:00] >> Yeah, but it was around all about deep
[9:02] >> go to a bunky.
[9:03] >> Is there a bunky?
[9:03] >> There's a bunk.
[9:04] >> Okay. Okay. Maybe I can head now.
[9:07] >> It's all about the the Doom scenario was
[9:09] around deep fakes and humanity thinking
[9:11] that there was like conflicts happening
[9:14] which would create actual
[9:15] >> wars. I I I I I don't know that I'm
[9:17] super like worried about that particular
[9:19] scenario, but you could take me on that
[9:21] journey for 20 minutes in a long winded
[9:24] answer on a podcast and I would be I
[9:27] would be entertained. I think that I
[9:28] think that there is material there and I
[9:29] did see genuinely a lot of uh like sort
[9:32] of AI safety skeptics just asking for
[9:35] more storytelling around how things go
[9:38] bad. Uh it's so easy to condense a pdoom
[9:40] down to a single number, but I think
[9:42] people like stories. They want something
[9:44] that actually illustrates the chain of
[9:47] events that lead to the bad scenario as
[9:49] opposed to these vague things where it's
[9:50] like I have a lot of authority. I have a
[9:52] lot of insight and 5%. Or 20%. that that
[9:57] obviously I mean it does go viral but uh
[9:59] clearly there were people that had
[10:01] demand for more of a story that they
[10:04] could track and they could and they
[10:05] could falsify individual Keith Roy
[10:08] yesterday was was was struggling with
[10:09] this where it was like it's hard to
[10:11] falsify someone saying 10% in the next
[10:14] 10 years but it's it's easier to falsify
[10:16] about like well the the nuclear weapons
[10:18] will be fired at this time and this is
[10:20] what's going to happen and this is how
[10:21] they get
[10:21] >> also the the job loss stuff
[10:23] >> totally totally anyway we'll do a quick
[10:26] round up of the rest of the news. Um,
[10:29] should we talk about Nvidia? Should we
[10:31] talk about Bending Spoons? What's
[10:33] interesting to you, Jordy?
[10:34] >> Let's start with Bending Spoons. Bending
[10:36] Spoons acquires Mero for 1.79
[10:41] billion.
[10:42] >> Yes.
[10:42] >> Paul Bonnet over a GP over 20 VC.
[10:46] >> Mhm.
[10:47] >> Uh, says, "But who gets the money?" My
[10:49] usual breakdown. Mhm. Uh so this is 89%
[10:52] below the last round and at uh less than
[10:56] less than three times revenue.
[10:57] >> Wo Muro was valued at 17.5 billion.
[11:00] Yeah,
[11:00] >> that's really high. Wow. Yeah.
[11:02] >> So um anyways I you know we actually
[11:05] don't need to dive through all this
[11:07] stuff. A lot you know investors are
[11:09] getting
[11:09] >> Yes. But but I am interested in the
[11:11] bending spoon strategy because air table
[11:13] miro miro felt like it felt like modern
[11:17] collaborative slides and like mood
[11:19] boards and then air table felt like the
[11:22] modern you know Excel sheet and it feels
[11:24] like they're trying to maybe piece
[11:26] together a bundle but I don't know if
[11:28] that's actually how Benny Spoons thinks
[11:29] about this. It feels like in the past
[11:31] they've been very interested in just
[11:33] it's a known brand with a strong
[11:35] business that they can run efficiently
[11:37] and it stands alone. But for the first
[11:39] time, I'm seeing glimpses of something
[11:41] that could be like a portfolio or a
[11:43] rollup where if you have Air Table, you
[11:45] get Miro for free or vice versa. And
[11:47] there's cross-selling options because if
[11:49] you like these more modern tools like an
[11:51] like a Miro, like an Air Table, uh I've
[11:55] seen both of these deployed in the same
[11:56] startup and the startup, there's always
[11:58] this tension between, hey, we're paying
[12:00] 20 bucks a seat for this, 20 bucks a
[12:01] seat for that, or we could just do 15
[12:03] bucks for Google and we get all of them.
[12:06] So you actually wind up with a portfolio
[12:08] and I I don't know maybe the sum is
[12:10] greater than its parts. What do you
[12:11] think? potentially, but but yeah, it was
[12:14] very it's just insane to me that this
[12:16] was a $17 billion company uh just just a
[12:20] little bit ago. And ultimately, this is
[12:22] why I have a lot of fear around like
[12:25] some of these like later stage or even
[12:27] like later stage rounds that are
[12:29] happening right now because they're
[12:30] clearly there's certain teams that are
[12:33] fantastic,
[12:35] >> great categories, great on the path to
[12:38] being great businesses and yet many of
[12:40] them feel so far from being on that path
[12:42] to being priced at a 100red or trillion
[12:45] or or what whatever the number is. And
[12:48] we're going to see this exact same thing
[12:49] play out right now where there's
[12:51] companies that are around this valuation
[12:52] now that that three years from now will
[12:55] sell at a 90% discount.
[12:57] >> Right. I'd be interested to see if like
[12:59] have the metrics at Miro changed in the
[13:01] age of AI because you could imagine that
[13:04] people if they need a collaborative mood
[13:07] board or slide deck they can vibe code
[13:10] their own tool but it's still a little
[13:12] bit of a hassle to deploy that and
[13:13] maintain it even if you can clone it. So
[13:16] the SAS apocalypse was fully aver fully
[13:18] averted by the sales forces of the world
[13:21] and the revenue decline never showed up
[13:25] in the SAS companies and so the SAS
[13:27] apocalypse was was canceled. But was
[13:30] there a micro SAS apocalypse that did
[13:32] show up at this level and that's why
[13:34] we're seeing these deals? I don't know.
[13:36] Uh do you think this is all just like a
[13:37] promotion for David Senra's new episode
[13:40] with Luca Ferrari? Because David Sen is
[13:43] perfect timing. I have an episode with
[13:44] Luca Ferrari coming out this Sunday. Is
[13:46] that great? It's just like, thank you.
[13:50] >> Thank you for lining up this deal with
[13:52] you coming on my podcast. Um, no. Uh,
[13:55] Jason says, uh, 3x paying 3x AR at 600
[13:59] million of ARR over 750 customers paying
[14:02] over $100,000 a year. Cash flow
[14:04] positive, man. But Jamie Quint says
[14:07] multiple years of 5% ARR growth will do
[14:10] that. Yeah, if you're not if you're not
[14:12] acceler I mean the the entire multiple
[14:14] is based on growth so there's not going
[14:16] to be you know a significant
[14:17] acceleration
[14:18] >> you got to be growing.
[14:20] >> Yeah, it's true. Uh so
[14:22] >> in other acquisition news um Oh yeah got
[14:25] a card out but Tailwind got acquired by
[14:27] Shopify.
[14:28] >> Uh that's very cool. Remember uh if you
[14:31] remember I think Tailwind was uh
[14:34] accelerating AI software development but
[14:37] wasn't directly a beneficiary. And
[14:39] didn't they get like sort of
[14:41] >> a bunch of people in the industry I
[14:42] think
[14:43] >> Google right wasn't Logan I think
[14:46] I am going to provide a grant to keep
[14:49] these guys going. I thought that was
[14:50] awesome. That was like such a cool
[14:52] community moment. Um and interesting
[14:54] that they they now like found a proper
[14:57] landing spot which is cool. Uh yeah very
[15:00] optimistic scenario.
[15:01] >> Uh we had a little bit of iPhone Duo
[15:04] coverage yesterday. We didn't see the
[15:06] crease. We had a key question in the
[15:08] chat from Sally Analysis. They asked,
[15:10] >> "What do you guys think about the
[15:11] crease?" I couldn't see it in any of
[15:13] those Apple renders and Apple seemed to
[15:16] get really good with the lighting
[15:18] placement to not show up the crease.
[15:21] True. My accurate take. I don't care
[15:23] about this. That is not enough of a
[15:25] crease. Do matter at all.
[15:26] >> Yeah.
[15:27] >> Especially if this is a mode where
[15:30] you're uh using two apps. You don't care
[15:33] about the middle at all. I I've seen
[15:35] guys on football days have four TVs next
[15:37] to each other with full bezels. Like you
[15:39] can see the line going down the center
[15:40] of the and they just don't care. So like
[15:42] this is not a big deal. Uh now the
[15:45] interesting thing is like will it be an
[15:48] issue if you're like watching a movie on
[15:50] this thing on a plane? I think maybe.
[15:53] But I think the crease will probably
[15:55] completely disappear when you're
[15:56] actually locked in on a on a film. But I
[15:59] think the bigger thing is the aspect
[16:00] ratio is kind of weird for modern
[16:03] content because we have films which are
[16:07] widescreen and YouTube videos which are
[16:09] 16 by9 and those will show black bars at
[16:12] at the top and the bottom or you could
[16:14] zoom in and then you're croping the
[16:15] sides. Not a great experience. Some of
[16:17] the demos some of the demo video that
[16:19] Apple showed was super cool because it
[16:21] was shot in this like 43. So maybe you
[16:23] go back and you get some 43 content from
[16:26] like the 70s and 80s and that displays
[16:29] really well because you don't need to do
[16:30] the the the pan and scan thing anymore.
[16:32] But um and then the vertical content
[16:35] will also look like bars on the side
[16:37] like you're on an iPad. So I wonder if
[16:39] that will be annoying. It'll probably
[16:40] melt into the background. I think people
[16:42] will still like it. I'm very interested
[16:44] in the mix like what percent like will
[16:48] this be as popular as the iPhone Pro has
[16:51] been relative to the iPhone? Will this
[16:54] be 10% of overall phone sales from this
[16:57] cycle? Will it be 1% or 30%. It's the
[17:02] the fact that it's different, the fact
[17:04] that it's a way to stand out, it's their
[17:06] most foldable phone ever.
[17:07] >> Yeah, this was a this was a comment from
[17:09] uh Thank you to the prolific uh Spotify.
[17:13] Spotify
[17:14] >> uh comedian Dave, he commented yesterday
[17:17] it's their most foldable iPhone yet.
[17:19] >> It is.
[17:20] >> And it really is. So really, it's like
[17:22] when they introduce the iPhone Duo 2,
[17:25] which
[17:26] >> will
[17:26] >> Quattro,
[17:27] >> I think they're going to have to to
[17:29] multiply them and and get the iPhone
[17:31] Quattro.
[17:32] >> Yeah.
[17:32] >> Then they'll say it's our most foldable
[17:34] iPhone yet. It has four
[17:36] >> until it's just a full accordion like a
[17:38] fan that just fans out it screens.
[17:40] >> Yeah. The the fan the iPhone fan. Yeah,
[17:43] >> it's just like this, you know.
[17:44] >> Yeah. 20 different folds. Um, what was
[17:47] funny is I'm going to put you on blast
[17:49] here a little bit as you come in and
[17:50] you're like, "Yeah, like this just makes
[17:52] me want an iPhone 18 Pro." And you were
[17:56] laying it out and you were like, "It's
[17:57] their best iPhone yet." They It's just a
[17:59] great phone. They they made it thinner,
[18:01] lighter, faster, better battery life.
[18:03] And I was like, "This is your joke. You
[18:04] fell for your own joke." But it is sort
[18:07] of like this. It could be for some
[18:08] people like an anti Halo phone. For some
[18:11] people, it's gonna be the Halo where
[18:12] they're like, "I wanted something
[18:13] different. I want something bigger. I
[18:14] want the best thing. I got that." For
[18:16] other people, they're gonna be like,
[18:17] "Oh, thank god. I don't have to deal
[18:18] with the with the foldable thing. Just
[18:20] give me the cheaper, you know, $2,000
[18:23] iPhone Pro Max 18 plus, you know, all
[18:25] these crazy things."
[18:27] >> Blake Schol jumped in and said, "When
[18:29] Steve Jobs introduced the iPad, he went
[18:31] to great care to explain why such a
[18:32] product category should exist to begin
[18:34] with. Apple seems to have made a pretty
[18:36] great version of a foldable phone
[18:37] without saying why foldable phones
[18:39] deserve to exist. I think it would be
[18:41] somewhat uncomfortable for them to
[18:43] explain why exactly you you need a
[18:46] bigger screen. It's like, hey, you know,
[18:48] we know some of you guys are spending
[18:50] hours and hours and hours a day.
[18:52] >> This is such a Okay, continue.
[18:54] >> Just finish your argument so I can
[18:56] rebut.
[18:57] >> No, why don't you jump in, John? I just
[18:59] think that there is there's cool stuff
[19:01] to do on your phone that is actually
[19:03] less brain rotty when you're on a bigger
[19:05] screen
[19:06] >> like games on your phone like which you
[19:08] you would from time to time from time to
[19:10] time
[19:11] >> I would never watch Lawrence of Arabia
[19:12] on this screen but you give me a screen
[19:14] with twice as much real estate I'm going
[19:16] Lawrence Arabia I'm going Citizen Kain
[19:18] >> yeah I'm and and I I agree that that is
[19:22] the use case but I think it's somewhat
[19:24] uncomfortable because of the overarching
[19:27] sort of discussion around phone
[19:28] addiction and screen time and all this
[19:30] stuff. It's bad for kids. It's probably
[19:32] not great for adults.
[19:34] >> And for Apple to come out is like, you
[19:36] know, we know that you're spending hours
[19:37] and hours every day, you know, getting
[19:39] mindless entertainment from our devices.
[19:41] And so we get we get we're giving you a
[19:43] bigger screen.
[19:44] >> I I don't think Apple needs to touch
[19:46] that. I think that like the things that
[19:48] they promote on their phone are good.
[19:51] Like you can answer your emails, you can
[19:53] connect with your friends, you can text
[19:55] them, you can watch educational videos.
[19:57] There's a positive flip to everything
[19:59] that's like a negative example. Yeah.
[20:01] There's some game that's brainy, but
[20:03] there's also some game that's really fun
[20:04] that you remember. You talk about Rust
[20:06] and Halo, like these are these are core
[20:09] memories for a lot of people. It's a
[20:10] positive thing. Yeah.
[20:11] >> So, being able to do more of that. Plus,
[20:13] it's just like you don't know when
[20:15] you're it's very hard to plan ahead for
[20:17] like, oh, I'm going to get caught with a
[20:19] extra hour waiting at the DMV or I'm
[20:22] going to wait on a plane or I'm going to
[20:24] have some downtime and I'm going to want
[20:25] to actually like enjoy something more
[20:27] thoroughly. If you have the Duo, it's
[20:29] your daily driver. It's always on you.
[20:30] You didn't need to think, oh, I should
[20:32] break an iPad because I'm going to be
[20:33] stuck waiting in this line for 20
[20:35] minutes. So, I want to watch something
[20:37] nicely on a really big screen. You got
[20:39] the do in your pocket. You're good to
[20:40] go.
[20:42] I'm not sold.
[20:43] >> Sales job.
[20:44] >> I'm not sold, but get get this guy a job
[20:46] at the Apple store.
[20:48] >> Tennis, tennis, tennis. There was a
[20:50] match that ended at 3:30 a.m.
[20:53] >> and people are not happy about it. The
[20:56] new the Wall Street Journal's headline
[20:58] is, "No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
[21:03] There's nothing cool about a tennis
[21:05] match that finishes at 3:33 a.m. It's
[21:08] ridiculous. Sorry, but tennis at 3:33
[21:12] a.m. isn't cool. It's ridiculous. Um,
[21:15] what what happened? Bill Aman loved it.
[21:16] He said, "One of the greatest tennis
[21:18] matches ever, and very few got to see it
[21:20] live. This needs to be fixed now. It's
[21:22] unfair to the players, fans, and
[21:24] sponsors in the sports." What is the
[21:25] actual proposal? What do they want to
[21:27] change? Start the game earlier or cut it
[21:29] off entirely if it keeps going?
[21:32] >> Uh, yeah. So, I'm I'm trying to figure
[21:34] out why why this ever was uh is or was a
[21:38] thing. I uh hopefully the journal
[21:40] article can can break it down, but I
[21:43] watched a little bit of this game. I
[21:45] went to bed. It was uh yeah, I think I
[21:48] went went to bed. It was actually a
[21:49] later night. I went to bed around 11:00.
[21:52] >> Um but the game was going well past 3.
[21:55] Ben Shelton, who actually won the match,
[21:57] it was an upset, uh was hitting 146 mph
[22:02] serves at at uh
[22:05] >> at Carlos. Carlos at one point was
[22:07] shoeing off the um the the camera crew
[22:10] because they were filming him and he was
[22:11] throw like actively like going to throw
[22:13] up. He he was like pushing it so hard
[22:16] that he was going to throw up into
[22:17] >> into a towel. So really really crazy.
[22:20] Wall Street Journal says, "Sometimes
[22:21] this glorious sport can't get out of its
[22:23] own way. Everyone is expected to pretend
[22:25] night tennis is a fabulous experience.
[22:27] We're supposed to deploy the word epic
[22:29] and act like we didn't brush our teeth
[22:31] and hit the hay after Shelton took the
[22:33] second set." I do actually have a family
[22:36] member that did exactly that like
[22:38] >> blowout second set. They were like, "All
[22:40] right, like
[22:41] >> we're good.
[22:41] >> We're good." And it ended up being this
[22:43] incredible game. Okay.
[22:44] >> The US Open has long cultivated the idea
[22:46] that the Wii hours are part of its
[22:47] identity as much of uh as much a part of
[22:50] the formula as the $23 honeydeuce
[22:52] cocktails and the plume of cannabis
[22:54] smoke wafting in from a nearby park.
[22:57] Even uh ESPN fains enthusiasm for the
[23:01] opera midnight when it would never
[23:02] schedule a tentpole like the Iron Bowl
[23:04] for such an uncommon hour. It's a city
[23:07] that never sleeps. Why should tennis?
[23:09] Okay. How many 3:30 a.m. finishes have
[23:12] you attended at Yankee Stadium? I
[23:14] appreciate the romance. New York remains
[23:15] a restless town where you can get a
[23:17] steak dinner and a tattoo on your back
[23:19] long after quitting time. The subway is
[23:21] 24/7 theater. You can crawl out of a bar
[23:24] at dawn. There are amateur bike races
[23:26] that start in the dark at 5:45 a.m. It's
[23:29] zany, but Alcarz versus Shelton isn't a
[23:32] corn beefed sandwich at an allnight
[23:34] diner.
[23:36] >> This sounds like AI slop. It's a marquee
[23:38] showcase for
[23:40] >> I I I've been reading this and I think I
[23:42] think it's just like fun turns.
[23:44] >> No, it's it's good. It's a marquee
[23:46] showcase for a sport that needs every
[23:48] bit of US attention it can get and it
[23:49] got buried like a Tom Snyder sitdown
[23:52] with Buddy Hackit. Even people in Hawaii
[23:55] were like, "This Alcarez Shelton match
[23:57] is running pretty late. This isn't a
[23:59] routine to celebrate." Okay, I'm sorry.
[24:01] A lot of a lot of a lot of uh we're
[24:04] going to have to run this through
[24:04] Pangalism.
[24:06] >> Yeah, this isn't a routine to celebrate.
[24:09] This is when someone needs to step in
[24:10] and scream, "What are we doing?"
[24:12] >> You know, I found two new AI phrases. Uh
[24:16] I don't remember both of them. One of
[24:17] them is uh in our increasingly online
[24:20] world when someone's writing about uh
[24:24] online culture or something that
[24:25] happened on the internet or like with
[24:28] the boom of social media like there's
[24:30] two phrases that were popularized
[24:32] because journalists who needed to write
[24:35] about things that happened online kept
[24:37] using this phrase that got baked into
[24:39] the LLM and then now it's getting spit
[24:42] back at people and so a lot of people
[24:44] are turning away from the phrase in our
[24:46] increasingly ly online world. So avoid
[24:49] that one too. I guess
[24:50] >> says nighttime. You wouldn't understand
[24:52] that. It's a New York thing.
[24:54] >> Yeah.
[24:55] >> Yeah. It's funny because I feel like you
[24:56] can maintain the the mystique of the the
[24:59] US Open by just having games wrap up
[25:02] around midnight. Like it's still very
[25:04] much nighttime. Like it's dark out,
[25:07] >> you know?
[25:08] >> People are people are sleeping. Um,
[25:11] anyways, uh, definitely seems just
[25:13] incredibly rough and and unfair to the
[25:15] to the players.
[25:16] >> Mhm. This has happened in in UFC a few
[25:19] times um where the the in order to hit a
[25:23] US time zone for the pay-per-view,
[25:26] >> the actual fighters have to be fighting
[25:28] at the equivalent of like 6 a.m. where
[25:30] they are,
[25:31] >> which is just imagine waking imagine one
[25:34] going to sleep at like 10 knowing that
[25:37] you have to wake up and get in a death
[25:39] match at 6 a.m.
[25:41] >> Sounds pretty rough. The alternative is
[25:43] just to stay up and like, you know, just
[25:46] try to try to try to be
[25:47] >> because it starts at 6, so you got to
[25:49] get warmed up.
[25:50] >> Like the whole event is starting at at
[25:52] probably midnight. But then
[25:53] >> I guess the move would probably be just
[25:55] don't adjust for jet lag. Like get there
[25:58] on your schedule and just treat it like
[26:00] it's a 6 pm fight for whatever your
[26:03] local time zone is, I suppose. I don't
[26:05] know. What do you think about this,
[26:08] Chairman Burb Berneni? You can eat the
[26:11] same thing for breakfast every single
[26:12] day for like 20 years in a row and no
[26:14] one will say anything. It's normal. You
[26:15] eat the same thing for dinner for a
[26:17] month straight and people call you
[26:18] psychotic.
[26:20] I think it's fine to eat the same dinner
[26:21] every night for a month.
[26:22] >> What's wrong with being a psycho? I used
[26:24] to I used to do
[26:26] >> Yeah. Chicken and rice.
[26:27] >> Chicken and rice
[26:28] >> every night.
[26:28] >> Yeah.
[26:29] >> For months, for years.
[26:30] >> Leave us five stars on Apple Podcast and
[26:32] Spotify. Sign up for our newsletter at
[26:34] tbp.com
[26:35] and we will see you tomorrow at 11:00
[26:38] a.m. Pacific. Sharp. We love you.
[26:40] >> Goodbye.
[26:42] >> Have a great rest of your day.
[26:43] >> Have the best Thursday afternoon of your
[26:46] entire life.
[26:46] >> Goodbye.
