Hyperscaler Debt Wave Matches US Treasury Supply as Yields Test 5%

超大规模科技巨头发债潮逼平美债供应，收益率试探5%关口 激增的AI资本支出迫使科技巨头发行的长端债券规模与美国政府相当，形成了可能将收益率推升至不可持续阈值之上的双重供给冲击。 Jens Nordvig审视了企业AI资本支出与不断膨胀的主权赤字之间前所未有的冲突，并指出超大规模科技巨头的发债规模已与美国长端国债供应持平。随着美元价值走弱以及10年期美债收益率逼近关键阈值，财政部长Scott Bessent针对日元及国债回购的激进市场干预，凸显了日益加剧的结构性风险。尽管部分专业零售股出现引人瞩目的崩跌，但高频信用卡数据显示，在体验式消费的推动下，“终结者经济”（Terminator economy）依然表现出韧性。在实体供应瓶颈和具有黏性的平准通胀率背景下，Nordvig认为韩国在存储半导体领域的统治地位是贯穿至2027年最具吸引力的跨资产宏观投资逻辑。 Exante Data与Vanda Research在Jens Nordvig主导下合并成立Vanda Analytics，将外汇和固收资金流分析与散户股票持仓数据相结合。 (7:16) 原始金融数据已高度同质化，促使机构对冲基金相比自动化的LLM摘要，更青睐人工宏观策略与研判问责制。 (13:46) 金融大语言模型擅长历史归纳，但缺乏溯因推理能力，难以解释全新的宏观格局或黑天鹅式的地缘政治转变。 (17:00) 财政部长Scott Bessent正对美元/日元进行激进的货币干预，并主导长端国债回购以稳定债券市场。 (19:23) 超大规模科技巨头为资助AI资本开支而发行的企业债规模已与美国长端国债供应持平，挤压了主权债务并终结了轻松套息的时代。 (22:03)

Strategist Jens Nordvig argues that global markets have entered an unprecedented regime where massive artificial intelligence capital spending collides with historic sovereign deficits, creating a dual debt supply shock that pressures long-term bond yields and upends traditional asset relationships. Dual Bond Issuance and Long-End Yield Pressures (22:03) An unprecedented technological capital expenditure cycle from tech hyperscalers—including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta—is exhausting corporate free cash flow and forcing heavy borrowing. Exante Data estimates that gross long-end bond issuance from these tech giants now rivals the entire long-end issuance of the United States government. This corporate supply wave coincides with a federal peacetime deficit of 6% of GDP and Congressional Budget Office projections of national debt climbing toward 200% of GDP, eliminating the easy carry environment for bond allocators. With 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.92% and 30-year yields touching multi-year highs, the modern debt-burdened economy is far more rate-sensitive than in 2007. Nordvig warns that markets face severe non-linearity: while equity earnings growth above 20% and oversubscribed corporate debt auctions have prevented an immediate credit freeze, a sudden 20 to 35 basis point yield spike could cross a threshold that triggers sharp equity liquidations. Sovereign Debt Strain and Decoupled Asset Correlations (29:11) Long-dated Treasury yields have detached from routine macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations, signaling deeper sovereign balance-sheet anxiety. In foreign exchange, low-debt sovereigns such as Switzerland, Singapore, and Australia have outperformed, while the United States has fallen behind Japan on key debt metrics among the top 30 global economies. Consequently, the US dollar exhibits residual weakness and is 'leaking' value even when short-term interest rate differentials would traditionally favor it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has countered these pressures through open-market long-duration Treasury buybacks and coordinated USD/JPY interventions to prevent foreign liquidation of US paper. Meanwhile, gold has completely severed its historical negative correlation with real interest rates. Rather than falling as real yields climbed to post-2007 highs, gold has experienced structural accumulation from central banks like the People's Bank of China and European institutional ETF allocators seeking an alternative hedge against long-duration sovereign bond risk. Hardware Bottlenecks and South Korea's Macro Boom (41:27) Policymakers' early hopes that artificial intelligence would act as an immediate disinflationary shock have been upended by the physical realities of the infrastructure buildout. Building data centers requires physical commodities, electrical infrastructure, and high-demand skilled labor, driving wage gains in lower percentiles and elevating 5-year breakeven inflation rates to the 2.4%–2.5% range. Hardware constraints are particularly acute in memory; citing Elon Musk's supply calculations, Nordvig points out that fabricators can expand hardware capacity by only about 20% over one to two years against a 100% demand surge. This DRAM bottleneck has positioned South Korea as a premier macroeconomic winner through 2027. Booming semiconductor memory exports have propelled the Korean won to its best three-month performance on record and driven an internal investment and wage cycle. The shift also broke legacy equity models: historical correlations linking KOSPI gains to foreign inflows failed when enthusiastic domestic retail buying drove the market higher, forcing foreign institutional funds to net sell solely to maintain regional benchmark portfolio weightings. Consumer Spending Resilience Contradicts Retail Equity Declines (50:06) Market commentators warning of an impending consumer collapse based on plunging specialty retail equities—such as sharp drops in Dick's Sporting Goods and American Eagle—are misinterpreting idiosyncratic stock multiple compression as macro deterioration. Michael Batnick notes that an equal-weighted discretionary retail basket has underperformed the S&P 500 for a decade, even while a 15-company same-store sales composite expanded by 5.1% year-over-year. Aggregated transaction data from Bank of America covering tens of millions of households confirms that card spending grew 4% to 5% year-over-year, supported by inflation-adjusted savings balances above 2019 levels. Josh Brown notes that consumer behavior has rotated structurally from accumulating physical goods to purchasing experiences such as travel and live entertainment. This underlying resilience has sustained a 'Terminator economy' that withstands elevated policy rates, though delayed mortgage resets near 8% and rising crude oil prices remain lingering vulnerabilities. While strong corporate earnings and consumer balance sheets continue to support broad market growth, the central unresolved vulnerability remains the bond market: if hyperscaler AI debt issuance accelerates alongside persistent federal borrowing, the resulting spike in long-end yields may overwhelm policy interventions and force a broader economic adjustment.

宏观策略师Jens Nordvig与主持人指出，全球市场正处于其职业生涯中最复杂多变的宏观节点：超大规模科技公司的AI资本开支潮与美国巨额财政赤字同时在长端债券市场发债竞资，推高收益率并加剧通胀粘性；尽管美国消费在服务支出拉动下仍具韧性，但传统宏观关联性正在失效，长端利率的非线性异动与实体硬件瓶颈正将市场推向脆弱边缘。 科技巨头与美债供应共振推升长端利率 (22:03) Jens Nordvig指出，当前宏观环境的核心变量是AI资本开支激增与巨额主权债务供给的正面碰撞。根据Exante Data测算，微软、谷歌、Meta和亚马逊等主要超大规模技术企业的长期债券净发行量，已与美国联邦政府长端国债发行规模平齐。同时，美国正维持着高达GDP 6%的和平时期财政赤字，堪比20世纪80年代里根时期的峰值。科技巨头因数据中心建设逐渐耗尽自由现金流，增量资金需求正非线性地转移至企业债市场，预计2026至2027年发行量将进一步攀升。 双重供给压力使债券市场严重承压。美国10年期国债收益率重回4.92%，30年期收益率逼近2007年以来的峰值。国会预算办公室（CBO）预测，美国国家债务占GDP比例在突破100%后，正加速迈向数十年内的200%。为缓解长端利率失控对住房和信贷市场的冲击，财政部长Scott Bessent已启动长端国债回购，但Nordvig警告，长端收益率若短期内快速上冲20至35个基点，极易跨越临界值并诱发股市非线性的剧烈回调。 物理瓶颈固化通胀与政策目标冲突 (39:14) 通胀方面，市场5年期盈亏平衡通胀率已从2.2%攀升至2.4%至2.5%区间。Josh Brown与Nordvig分析称，华盛顿决策层最初寄望生成式AI通过降温劳动力市场带来通缩红利，但现实却是基础设施的大规模物理建设带来了强劲通胀推力，建筑工人与低分位数劳动者的薪资增幅尤为显著。物理供应链瓶颈同样突出，以DRAM内存为代表的硬件需求暴增。Nordvig援引Elon Musk的测算指出，即便芯片制造工厂全力建设，未来一至两年全球产能也仅能增加约20%，而AI领域面临的却是100%的需求，硬件瓶颈使物价压力难以降温。 这令美联储降息预期更加复杂，同时财政政策目标也陷入内在矛盾：政府一方面试图通过弱势美元提振本土制造业，并协调汇市干预以防日本财务省被迫抛售约940亿美元美债；另一方面，弱势美元推高了进口成本，且因伊朗地缘对峙拖延，WTI原油未能如政策模型预期从100美元滑落至70美元，长期能源成本持续向消费者通胀预期渗透。 传统宏观模型失效与人类判断溢价 (15:30) 传统量化模型与历史规律在当前变局中屡屡失效。黄金市场体现了这种脱钩：在实际利率升至2007年以来高位、非生息资产理应承压的背景下，黄金自2022至2023年起与实际利率彻底脱钩。由于中国人民银行等央行系统性多元化储备，加之欧洲机构投资者因规避长端主权债久期风险而买入黄金替代配置，推动金价走出独立牛市。外汇市场上，美元在利差模型下出现无法解释的“价值渗漏”，瑞士、新加坡等低债务国货币反而大幅跑赢。 在微观层面，韩国KOSPI指数在半导体热潮中由本土散户接管，迫使国际机构因再平衡基准权重而逆势净卖出，颠覆了以往“外资流入推动韩股上涨”的统计假设。Josh Brown与Nordvig指出，通用大模型长于归纳与推演，但面对未曾出现的新体制时无法进行溯因推理；且公用模型缺乏私有机构数据流。顶级对冲基金因而更愿意为具备深厚经验的人类策略师支付溢价，以应对飘移的市场微观结构。 零售股价下跌掩盖底层消费真实韧性 (50:06) 针对专卖零售商股价重挫（如Dick's Sporting Goods单月跌约38%、American Eagle跌15%）引发的“消费崩溃”担忧，Michael Batnick指出，个股走势反映的是估值压缩而非宏观困境。自2001年以来的数据显示，涵盖沃尔玛、好市多、塔吉特等15家全国零售商的同店销售综合指数同比增幅达5.1%，保持稳健；且非必需消费品相对标普500的等权重比率已连续十年下行，并未指示大盘见顶。 美国银行覆盖数千万家庭的账本进一步证实了消费韧性。首席执行官Brian Moynihan确认，继第二季度录得5%的增速后，8月份信用卡与借记卡总支出同比增长约4%，表明经济仍在扩张。Josh Brown强调，当前消费支出的核心分野是“体验优于物品”：家庭转向航空出行和文旅现场活动，带动达美航空高端舱位收入创新高，而传统耐用品门店表现平平。在强劲就业与薪资支撑下，宏观经济展现出无惧高利率与冻结地产的“终结者经济”特征。 韩国成为AI硬件周期的核心受益国 (63:53) 展望2027年，Jens Nordvig将韩国视为全球宏观中最具确定性且被低估的结构性机会。相比其经济体量，韩国正经历全球AI基础设施繁荣所带来的最强烈、最集中的外生推动。作为全球高带宽内存与DRAM核心制造枢纽，暴增的硬件需求推动韩国贸易顺差激增，并促使韩元录得有记录以来最强劲的单季表现。 Nordvig强调，这一利好正在向其国内整体经济传导。出口景气带动了韩国国内资本支出激增与实质薪资上涨，配合公司治理改革对上市公司分红派息的激励，形成了全方位的经济乘数效应。该主题不仅体现在半导体龙头与广泛的股票资产上，也同时展现在韩元的升值潜力中，成为全生态共振的宏观多头标的。 虽然美国消费在服务转型的托底下面对高借贷成本展现出韧性，但宏观系统正逼近长端利率与能源通胀的承压极值。主权赤字与科技巨头资本开支对长端资金的同步抽水，使美债收益率脱离常规基本面指引；若抵押贷款利率随收益率上行逼近8%，滞后的住房与信贷再融资压力势必逐步显现。在财政干预与控通胀目标相互掣肘的背景下，超大规模企业的发债节奏与实体产能瓶颈的化解周期，将成为决定本轮宏观叙事走向的关键未决变量。

## Background 本期节目由 YouTube 频道 The Compound 于 2026 年 9 月 11 日发布。主持团队 Downtown Josh Brown 与 Michael Batnick 邀请宏观研究机构 Vanda 总裁兼 Exante Data 创始人 Jens Nordvig 深度对谈，围绕美债收益率飙升与债市潜在断裂风险、财政部长 Scott Bessent 在日元与美债市场的下场干预、科技巨头激进的 AI 资本开支及发债潮、通胀粘性、极具韧性的美国实体消费，以及放眼 2027 年的韩国宏观交易机会等前沿议题展开探讨。 ## TL;DR 节目剖析了当前全球宏观正在经历的历史性裂变：美国财政赤字叠加科技巨头为 AI 算力中心展开的千亿美元级发债狂潮，导致长端国债面临双重供给洪峰，迫使财长 Bessent 采取债券回购与干预日元等交易员式手段维稳利率。嘉宾指出，AI 在现阶段因争夺电力、元器件与熟练工匠而具有鲜明的通胀属性，这与中东地缘导致的高油价共同限制了美联储的鸽派空间。同时，主持团队通过高频银行卡与同店销售数据拆穿了零售股大跌带来的“消费衰退假象”，揭示出美国实体与体验型消费仍具“终结者级”韧性；而在跨资产配置层面，受半导体存储芯片超级周期驱动的韩国股汇市场被视作中长期的核心宏观机会。 ## Atmosphere & style 全片充盈着纽约华尔街圈内特有的机智调侃与硬核宏观博弈感，从开场的社交冷幽默与苹果新品换机心理，无缝切入动辄万亿美元级别的流动性杀局。两位主持人犀利接地气的追问，与 Jens Nordvig 沉稳老练的资深交易员视角形成绝妙互补，既有“富人从不与机器人对话”等生动尖锐的行业洞察，也有对债市非线性拐点与美股潜在见顶的冷峻推演。整体氛围在见证“平生仅见宏观大风暴”的智性亢奋与直面流动性灰天鹅的深度警觉之间张弛自如，听感酣畅而极具认知冲击力。 ## Bulletin - [22:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1323s) 超大规模科技巨头（Hyperscalers）为建设 AI 数据中心掀起巨额发债潮，长端企业债发行量已比肩美国联邦国债净发行规模，引发债券市场剧烈的资金争夺与收益率上行压力。 - [31:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1866s) 美国10年期与30年期国债收益率再度逼近关键阻力位，财政部长 Scott Bessent 通过反常规的长端国债回购以及对外汇市场的强硬喊话干预日元，试图阻击海外官方资金抛售美债并防范债务螺旋。 - [40:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2407s) AI 建设在短期至中期展现出强烈的通胀属性，大量物理基建对能源、电网、DRAM 及熟练蓝领工人的需求极度迫切，理论上的长期生产率通缩效应在统计数据中仍未体现。 - [52:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3150s) 实体经济呈现出极具韧性的“终结者”特征：银行卡消费数据显示美国可选消费整体依然以约 5% 的年增率扩张，实体零售股的重挫更多反映了消费流向“体验型”板块及个股估值收缩，而非消费崩溃。 - [01:03:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3832s) Jens Nordvig 将韩国列为展望至2027年最值得布局的宏观交易标的，认为存储芯片繁荣驱动的贸易顺差与工资上涨形成了国家级宏观冲击，韩元汇率与本土股票市场均具备双轮多头潜力。 ## Key takeaways - [10:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=636s) 宏观研究数据服务正从纯数据转售转向“专有数据+顶层人脑研判”的混合模式，高净值及机构客户更加注重经过专家严格审核与承担受托责任的研判，而非未经核实的黑箱 AI 输出。 - [15:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=930s) 大语言模型（LLM）擅长归纳与演绎，但缺乏溯因推理能力，在面对韩国股市外资与散户资金流向倒挂等市场微观结构突变时极易失效并产生幻觉。 - [19:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1163s) 财政部长 Scott Bessent 展现出极具对冲基金交易员色彩的主动干预风格，直言“我就是庄家”，通过长端美债回购及精准预判日本央行政策来稳定美债与日元外汇市场。 - [26:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1567s) 美国联邦债务占 GDP 比重正由 100% 迈向 CBO 预测的 200%，伴随30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高，市场资产配置行为已开始对长期主权债务风险做出实质性避险定价。 - [29:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1751s) 全球外汇市场出现按国家债务水平分化的主线，低负债货币（如瑞郎、新元、澳元）表现坚挺，而美元近期脱离传统利差模型出现不明原因的走漏疲软，与美债长端动荡深度联动。 - [34:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2088s) 美国政府宏观政策存在内在矛盾：一方面期望弱势美元以拉动制造业回流，另一方面又要对抗通胀，而放任货币贬值自带输入型通胀效应，使政策相互掣肘。 - [39:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2354s) 中东霍尔木兹海峡地缘危机长期化与高油价粘性，使市场5年期通胀保平率攀升至 2.4%～2.5%，美联储对抗复合型通胀的鸽派转向空间受到严厉压缩。 - [45:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2708s) AI 行情演变经历了从 Mag 7 超大规模云厂商、半导体（SMH），到企业级 SaaS 软件的三轮接力，而超长线资本已在全面抢跑布局第四浪——能源与电网基础设施。 - [47:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2844s) 黄金彻底脱离了与高实际利率的传统负相关定价模型，转由全球央行（以中国央行等为主）战略性去美元化增储与欧洲投资者避险对冲长端美债信任赤字所驱动。 - [55:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3335s) 美国可选消费市场呈现结构性分化：实体专卖零售股遭遇资金抛弃，但航司、酒店、演出等体验型消费创下新高，实体消费在家庭退税资金和底层薪资上涨支撑下并未失速。 - [01:00:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3618s) 本轮美股牛市潜在的“灰天鹅”在于企业债市场的承压，若天量 AI Capex 发债遭遇“债券卫士”反噬导致认购遇冷并推高基准借贷成本，债市对巨头融资亮红灯或成为大盘见顶标志。 - [01:03:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3832s) 韩国正迎来由全球 AI 供应链驱动的国家级顺周期冲击，存储芯片供不应求带动薪资上升与消费外溢，构成了放眼2027年极具爆发力的股汇双重多头宏观交易机会。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=0s) 社交闲聊：到底谁在真诚地说“过得像神仙一样”与创始人的退出余波 节目以一段日常社交碎碎念开场。Downtown Josh Brown 抛出了一个直击灵魂的社交拷问：有没有人在接通朋友电话、问出“最近怎么样”时，对方会冷不丁来一句“过得像神仙一样（Living the dream）”？通常情况下，人们说这句话都带着强烈的讽刺与自嘲，意思无非是“别问了，生活就那样，对话可以结束了”。然而 Josh 最近碰到的一个熟人却是百分之百认真的，对方甚至兴高采烈地向他炫耀刚买了豪宅、正准备去希腊度假、人生赢麻了。Josh 承认自己听到这种回答直接心态失衡，甚至觉得对方“心理有毛病”，因为一个人即便真的过得顺风顺水，也该有起码的共情与社交分寸感，明白别人其实根本不想听这种炫耀。 Michael Batnick 则半开玩笑地反击 Josh，称 Josh 无非是希望身边的朋友都像他自己一样苦大仇深。此时刚完成公司并购的特邀嘉宾 Jens Nordvig 插话指出，外界总以为创业者完成业务退出（Exit）就是终极梦想，但现实却像过山车一样残酷——退出交易达成后的第二天，那种心理落差和空虚感往往接踵而至。在倾注全部精力推动并购的过程中，人往往会忽略生活中其他所有重要的事情。Josh 随后追问那个炫耀的朋友到底是生活中的好友还是业务伙伴，虽然 Josh 没有直接点名，但表示对方是圈内熟人，“只要猜两次你绝对能猜中是谁”，并笑称如果对方换成更低调的客套话“又是在天堂度过的一天（another day in paradise）”，听起来可能都不会那么刺耳。 ### [02:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=148s) 苹果硬件热议：iPhone Duo 的双屏定价心理学与换机潮 话题迅速转向刚公布的苹果硬件新品 iPhone Duo。Jens 坦言自己上一部 iPhone 体验极差，正迫切需要更换，而且他非常看重大屏幕的使用空间。Michael 和 Josh 则对这款折叠/双屏新形态设备赞不绝口。Michael 透露自己在发布会前原本持观望态度，但开场仅 30 秒就被彻底震撼并决定入手；Josh 则坚信这款手机绝对会大获成功，甚至会把苹果能生产出的产能全部卖光，因为智能手机行业已经太久没有出现过真正具有新奇感（novelty）的产品了。 针对网络上对高昂标价的抱怨，主持人们从消费心理和金融分期角度进行了剖析： - **分期感知极其钝化**：分析师 Mark Gurman 指出 iPhone 18 Pro Max 的月供约为 38 美元，而 iPhone Duo 大约在每月 53 美元。一个月仅仅多出 23 美元左右，在消费者日常现金流中几乎毫无感知。 - **目标客群与需求差异**：与售价高达 3500-4000 美元、非刚需且需要信用卡一次性大额支出的 Vision Pro 头显不同，智能手机是每个人的绝对刚需。苹果在 iPhone Duo 上瞄准的本来就不是对价格高度敏感的群体。 - **预留提价空间的定价策略**：此前科技博客普遍预测售价将高达 2500 美元，但苹果最终将起售价定在 2000 美元左右。这种出人意料的“低价”不仅引爆了初期的性价比预期，还为未来推出配置更高、屏幕更大、售价更贵的“iPhone Duo Pro”留足了涨价空间，避免了一开局就因定价过高而背上“滞销翻车”的骂名。 现场制作团队也加入了互动：导播 Daniel 调侃自己在等未来的“三折屏（Trio）”，而另一位制作人员 John 则心系勃艮第红配色的 iPhone 18，并坦言至今仍无比怀念全实体键盘的 BlackBerry，因为无论怎么盲打都不会出现打字错误。 ### [05:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=305s) “平生仅见的宏观大行情”与播客赞助播报 当被问及眼下的生活状态是否也算“过得像神仙一样”时，Jens Nordvig 给出了一个宏观老兵的由衷感慨：在他涉足全球宏观市场的整个职业生涯中，眼下绝对是他经历过最刺激、最引人入胜的宏观时刻（“I've never seen markets being more interesting than they are now”）。面对如此重磅的定调，Josh 示意先不要急着剧透核心观点，随后导播提醒戴好耳机、调整话筒距离，并给随身设备接上电源。 紧接着播客进入了赞助商 Franklin Templeton（富兰克林邓普顿）的广告播报： - **私募资本规模激增**：预计到 2030 年，全球私募资本规模将达到惊人的 26.7 万亿美元。 - **散户与机构的配置鸿沟**：大型机构投资者在私募市场深耕数十年，而绝大多数个人投资者却几乎从未涉足。富兰克林邓普顿通过规模化平台提供私募信贷、私募股权及实体资产等机构级解决方案，助力财富顾问和个人投资者将私募资产纳入长期投资组合。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 私募市场增长与渠道渗透流程 accDescr: 展示从机构长期主导到通过富兰克林邓普顿平台走向个人财富顾问配置的资金流动逻辑。 subgraph Growth["宏观资产趋势"] A["2030年全球私募资本<br/>预计达到 26.7 万亿美元"] end subgraph Disparity["配置现状鸿沟"] B["大型机构投资者<br/>深耕数十年/高配置"] C["个人投资者/散户<br/>涉足极少/门槛受限"] end subgraph Solution["财富优化平台"] D["Franklin Templeton<br/>私募信贷 / 私募股权 / 实体资产"] E["投资顾问及高净值客户<br/>实现长期组合配置"] end A --> B A -.-> C B -.对比.- C C --> D D --> E ``` ### [07:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=436s) 第 259 期正式开场：Jens Nordvig 与 Vanda/Exante 的联姻 录音正式启动，Downtown Josh Brown 与合伙人 Michael Batnick 宣布《The Compound and Friends》第 259 期在纽约市布赖恩特公园（Bryant Park）演播室现场录制。Josh 热情回顾了 Jens Nordvig 上次做客时的轰动效应——节目播出后各路听众反响极其热烈，纷纷惊叹于 Jens 渊博深厚的宏观功底，更有网友在评论区调侃称 Jens 简直是发明了宏观流动性分析的大神级人物。 随后 Josh 隆重介绍了 Jens Nordvig 的背景： - **现任职务**：独立数据分析与洞察机构 Vanda 的总裁兼董事会成员。 - **业务核心**：Vanda 专注于为全球专业机构投资者提供资金仓位监测（Positioning Data）、资金流动情报（Flow Intelligence）以及战术性宏观策略洞察。 - **过往履历**：Jens 职业生涯始终处于全球宏观市场与资本流动的交汇点，他于 2016 年创立了宏观策略与数据提供商 Exante Data，为全球超过 100 家大型顶尖机构客户提供服务。 谈及过去一年的最新动作，Jens 透露自己经历了极其忙碌的一年——他推动了 Exante Data 与同业先锋 Vanda Research 的全面合并。两家公司均专注于资金流动与仓位跟踪，强强联手后旨在打造全球首屈一指的市场微观结构与宏观流动性研究矩阵。以此为跳板，三人随即切入当下最具戏剧性的全球宏观变局。 ### [09:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=549s) Exante Data 与 Vanda Research 的合并契机 Jens Nordvig 谈到了自己约十年前创立的研究机构 Exante Data 最终出售并并入 Vanda Research 的经过。如今他在合并后的公司担任总裁（President），全面主导宏观研究业务。 谈及两家公司为何能够高度契合，Jens 解释道，双方的核心优势具有极强的互补性：Exante 长期极度聚焦在外汇（FX）与固定收益（Fixed Income）领域；而 Vanda 则以宏观股票见长，其标杆产品正是追踪美股散户交易资金流向的数据库（Retail Flows）。二者的合并实现了跨资产类别（Cross-Asset）的完整覆盖。此外，技术的迭代演进也是推动合并的关键动力——随着生成式人工智能（AI）浪潮袭来，谁能最聪明、最高效地利用 AI，谁就能在投研市场抢占先机。整合两家公司的资源，使他们能够全力加大技术投入，并即将推出全新的一站式跨资产宏观数据平台“Vanda Analytics”。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Exante Data 与 Vanda Research 合并架构 accDescr: 展示 Exante 的固收外汇优势与 Vanda 的宏观股票散户数据结合，加上 AI 赋能打造 Vanda Analytics。 subgraph Leg1["Exante Data 专长"] A["外汇 (FX)"] B["固定收益 (Fixed Income)"] end subgraph Leg2["Vanda Research 专长"] C["宏观股票 (Equities)"] D["散户资金流向 (Retail Flows)"] end subgraph Outcome["整合与升级"] E["跨资产全覆盖数据"] F["AI 投研基础设施"] G["新平台: Vanda Analytics"] end A --> E B --> E C --> E D --> E E --> G F --> G ``` ### [10:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=636s) 纯数据模式的陷阱与“人机结合”的混合商业模式 Josh Brown 指出，合并后的业务核心早已不是简单地“卖数据”，而是售卖从海量数据中提炼出的“深度洞见（Insights）”。Jens 对此深表赞同，并坦言在创业早期走过弯路：Exante 起初尝试过单纯卖底层数据的商业模式，但很快发现这条路非常艰难。 现实中，绝大多数投资组合经理（Portfolio Managers）与对冲基金交易员每天工作节奏极度紧张，根本没有时间和精力在庞杂的数据流里自行摸索。除了极少数拥有顶级算法挖掘能力的量化基金（Quant Funds）之外，市场上绝大部分资金依然基于自主判断（Discretionary Trading）。这类客户迫切需要专家直接告诉他们：“此时此刻，哪一项数据指标最值得关注并具有交易价值”。因此，将顶尖的高质量专有数据与顶层的专业宏观解读深度绑定的“混合模式（Hybrid Model）”，才是商业上最成功的路径。 Josh 用财富管理业务打了个生动的比方：如果只是给客户一个由 8 只 ETF 组成的投资组合清单，任何专业顾问不过脑子都能秒出方案；但客户真正买单的并不是这张清单，而是“未来的宏观经济环境如何演进”、“这套方案如何解决个人财务核心诉求”等深层解读。数据本身已经失去了独立溢价，基于数据的洞察才具有核心价值。 ### [12:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=735s) “富人从不直接和机器人对话”：人工审核与顶级客户的真实需求 面对生成式 AI 的爆发，Jens 强调目前团队最大的探索在于如何将以往由人类专家团队输出的投研洞见部分交由 AI 机器人加速生成。然而，这必须极其审慎地把握尺度：买方客户愿意支付高额费用的关键在于研报经过严密“审核（Vetted）”，建立在 Jens Nordvig 本人的学术声誉与专业背书之上。他们绝不接受把结论丢给不可解释的“黑箱（Black Box）”，然后盲目听信机器指令。 这甚至带来了一种奇妙的“商业轮回（Full Circle）”：前几年市场普遍认为电话沟通等传统方式即将被自动化淘汰，但如今最高端的机构客户反而比以往任何时候都更渴望直接给 Jens 打电话。正因为市面上未经核实、由 AI 粗制滥造的信息泛滥成灾，能够提供实时个人洞察、逻辑严密且经过顶尖人脑过滤的专家意见，反而变得极其稀缺和昂贵。 Josh Brown 随之提出了一个精辟的行为学法则：“富人从不直接和机器人对话（Rich people don't talk to robots）”。富人付钱雇佣专业人士去替他们与机器人交互，再将筛选、提炼后的答案汇报给自己。就像有钱人绝不会亲自登录 Expedia 预订度假行程一样，哪怕私人旅行管家在后台也使用 Expedia，核心在于必须要有一个活生生的人承担责任，对冲基金与高净值财富管理领域皆是如此。 - **商业法则**：顶层机构客户购买的不仅仅是分析结果，更是一份承担受托责任的信任机制与经过名家把关的声誉担保。 - **人机边界**：让机器人承担高强度的机械化数据处理（Heavy Lifting），让人类顶尖专家负责概念性逻辑推演（Conceptual Thinking）与最终核验。 ### [15:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=930s) 韩国市场案例：微观结构失效与大语言模型（LLM）的认知盲区 Jens 以当下经历剧烈宏观变革的韩国市场为例，解释为何过度依赖历史数据的机器模型经常会在关键时刻失效： - **AI 供应链热潮**：韩国股市中近半数权重来自半导体存储芯片（Memory），作为 AI 革命全球供应链中最核心的受益国之一，其贸易顺差正出现历史级的暴增，韩元汇率在过去三个月内也创下近年来极为强势的单边行情。 - **微观市场结构的反转**：过去十几年间，驱动韩国 Kospi 指数走势的核心力量一直来自外资机构的资金流向。然而，近期韩国本土散户资金掀起狂热炒股潮，推动大盘暴涨；伴随外资因投资组合被动再平衡（Rebalancing）而不得不被动抛售韩元资产，传统模型中“外资流入与韩国股市上涨”的正相关性彻底发生倒挂反转。 如果量化模型完全基于历史数据训练，就会在这个转折点得出全盘皆输的错误信号。环境一旦突变，底层数据的有效性便会瞬间归零。 Josh 随后引用了关于大语言模型（LLM）底层局限性的学术讨论：LLM 极其擅长归纳（Induction）与演绎（Deduction），能够高效率完成统计层面的模式匹配与信息提炼；但它根本不具备溯因推理（Abduction）与突破性解释假设的能力。它不可能像爱因斯坦提出相对论那样实现颠覆性的逻辑跃迁，一旦强行让它“自由发挥”，就会出现严重的幻觉（Hallucinations）。 Jens 赞同这一观点并总结道，金融市场永远在孕育前所未见的新宏观主题，训练语料来自过往的 LLM 根本无法凭空理解全新的宏观机制。正因如此，顶尖宏观研究者的角色不可替代：他们不仅要在 AI 给出输出后甄别其逻辑是否脱离现实，更要依托外部模型完全无法触及的私有专有数据（Proprietary Data），构建真正适应时代变化的宏观投资逻辑。 ### [18:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1125s) 数据共享与大模型的权衡 针对是否愿意向 Anthropic 开放专有数据以训练大模型的问题，Jens Nordvig 指出这需要权衡利弊。目前有相当一部分机构客户习惯直接通过 Claude 等大模型界面来获取和消费所有研究资讯，作为数据服务商自然希望顺应并满足客户的工作流习惯。然而，一旦涉及核心且具备竞争壁垒的专有数据（proprietary data），直接喂给外部通用大模型很可能削弱数据本身的独占性与商业价值。因此，如何在扩大分发覆盖面与守护专有数据资产之间取得平衡，是当前金融科技与宏观数据提供商必须谨慎面对的战略难题。 ### [19:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1163s) 罕见的财政部长：Scott Bessent 与市场干预 谈及当下的宏观格局，主持团队调侃 Jens Nordvig 所说的“职业生涯中最令人兴奋、最有趣的宏观时刻”，听起来像是“大家都快要亏大钱了”。话题随即转向财政部长 Scott Bessent 在前一天的强硬表态——“我就是庄家（I am the house）”。Jens 回忆道，在他创立的 Exante Data 成立十周年大会上，Bessent 就曾作为嘉宾出席演讲并探讨过宏观政策。Bessent 绝非传统的财政官员，他在对冲基金生涯中曾亲身交易过数百亿美元规模的美元兑日元（USD/JPY），对金融市场的波动不仅毫无畏惧，反而是驾轻就熟。以往的财政部长往往极力避免与市场对抗、生怕被投机资金“辗轧”，而 Bessent 却展现出主动下场干预的姿态。 当前美国财政部在美元兑日元汇率上进行干预，并在美债长端启动债券回购操作（buybacks），唯独明确表态不介入原油市场。Jens 指出，鉴于 Bessent 早年在野村证券（Nomura Securities）时期便深谙日本市场，两人也是在 Jens 担任野村证券首席外汇策略师期间结识并经常深入交流日本宏观问题，因此 Bessent 针对日元及债市的打法完全符合其交易员风格的底层逻辑。主持团队补充提到，Jens 曾连续五年被《机构投资者》（Institutional Investor）评选为顶级外汇策略师，见证过2010年前后欧债危机等诸多大风大浪，而眼前正在展开的宏观博弈，其复杂程度甚至超越了当年的动荡岁月。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Scott Bessent 宏观干预框架与逻辑 accDescr: 展示财政部长 Bessent 的交易员背景如何转化为对长端美债、日元外汇市场的直接干预策略。 subgraph Background["个人背景与认知"] A["传奇对冲基金交易员<br/>(亲身操盘数百亿美元 USD/JPY)"] B["资深日本宏观专家<br/>(与野村证券等机构长期渊源)"] end subgraph Stance["施政风格与心理"] C["豪言 'I am the house'<br/>(毫不畏惧市场投机博弈)"] end subgraph Actions["政策干预组合"] D["外汇端：干预美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)"] E["债市端：长端国债回购 (Buybacks)<br/>压制长端利率防失控"] F["大宗端：明确不干预原油市场"] end Background --> Stance Stance --> Actions ``` ### [22:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1323s) AI 生产力冲击与超大规模数据中心的发债洪流 Jens 认为当前宏观环境独一无二的核心原因，首先在于人工智能引发的生产力革命。与历史上的历次工业革命（如铁路的大规模铺设仅局限于运输与特定重工业）不同，当今所有的行业本质上都在依托软件运行，AI 具有“自我迭代、自我提升”的特性，正在以全行业同步渗透的方式重塑经济结构。然而，在技术乐观主义的背后，更惊人的宏观现实正在固定收益市场中浮现：科技巨头为建设超大规模数据中心（Hyperscalers）展开的资本开支竞赛，正演变成前所未有的发债洪流。 根据 Exante Data 的最新测算，目前包括谷歌（Alphabet）、微软（Microsoft）、亚马逊（Amazon）、Meta 等在内的超大规模云服务商，其在长端债券市场的发行规模，已几乎等同于美国联邦政府的长端国债净发行量。尽管美国目前自身正承受着相当于 GDP 6% 的巨额财政赤字——这一发债规模已堪比里根时期的赤字峰值——但极少数科技巨头仅凭一己之力，在长端信贷市场上的吸金速度已与主权国家平分秋色。 - 资本开支加速：头部科技巨头的资本开支（capex）在今年及明年均处于加速扩张通道，无人敢中途退缩。 - 融资模式的非线性恶化：早期科技巨头尚能依赖充裕的自由现金流覆盖基础设施开支，但随着开支数字飙升，新增投资越来越依赖公开市场发债，呈现出极高的融资贝塔（beta），预计明年的债券发行量将显著高于今年。 - 资本争夺拉升收益率：长期以来“低通胀环境下通过利差套息（carry trade）总能消化信贷”的传统模式已被打破，巨额资本开支对有限储蓄的剧烈争夺正全方位推高基准收益率。 ### [26:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1567s) 美债收益率高企与万亿债务隐忧 市场目前面临的严峻考验在于利率高企对经济实体的反噬。美国10年期国债收益率已攀升至 4.92%，逼近 2023 年 10 月曾短暂触及的 5% 高位；而 30 年期国债收益率更已创下 2007 年全球金融危机以来的新高，导致收益率曲线明显陡峭化。主持团队指出，2023 年 10 年期美债破 5% 之后曾引发股市暴涨 80% 的大反弹，但如今在动量股剧烈洗牌后，美股整体虽然尚未崩溃、科技巨头市值尚称坚挺，但长端收益率再度挑战 5% 所带来的宏观破坏力已非当年可比。 Jens 强调，尽管收益率水平看似与 2007 年或 2003 年相当，但底层债务环境发生了翻天覆地的变化： - 债务杠杆完全不可同日而语：在2007年金融危机爆发前，全社会的宏观负债率远低于当今水准。当时经济体尚能勉强承受的高利率，在如今庞大的存量债务面前极具破坏性。 - 借贷成本高企阻碍实体经济：长端美债收益率攀升直接导致美国 30 年期抵押贷款利率徘徊在 7% 附近，使房地产及相关行业陷入严峻停滞。 - 国债长端回购的迫切动机：财政部之所以急迫地推进长端国债回购，正是因为当局深知在当前的极高债务基数下，绝不能容忍 30 年期美债收益率失控上冲。 - 国会预算办公室（CBO）的严峻警报：作为无党派、客观严谨的数据研究机构，CBO 的债务预测显示，美国公共债务占 GDP 比重几年前刚突破 100%，而在未来短短二十年内这一比例将攀升至 200%。 随着债务增长曲线呈现陡峭化加速态势，以往市场总将“债务崩溃论”视为“狼来了”的长期噪音，但 Jens 警告，当前各类核心资产的价格联动与市场行为已经开始出现实质性的变异与转向。 ### [29:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1751s) 美债长端脱钩与全球主权债务的分化 过去三四个月里，美债长端的走势已经完全脱离了传统经济数据和美联储言论的指引，走出了一波完全独立的行情，而且这种长端利率飙升的现象正在全球范围内同步上演。在汇率市场上，这一宏观主线同样展现得淋漓尽致：如果将全球货币按国家债务水平高低构建一篮子组合，低负债国家的货币表现明显优于高负债国家。像瑞士法郎、新加坡元以及澳大利亚元等财政基本面稳健、负债率较低的国家，其多头头寸带来了相当丰厚的回报；反观全球前30大经济体，如今按债务指标衡量最糟糕的已经不是常年垫底的日本，而是美国。 迈克尔·巴特尼克（Michael Batnick）打趣地反问：“最糟糕不正是最好的吗？毕竟我们经济体量庞大，能够承受如此惊人的负债。”但延斯·诺德维格（Jens Nordvig）指出，尽管美元依靠全球首要储备货币的地位保持了超乎寻常的韧性，其近期走势却并不乐观。根据常规模型，驱动美元走势的核心变量通常是短端利率和全球风险情绪，然而近期美元却出现了一种无法用常规变量解释的“走漏”（leaking）现象，呈现出不明原因的持续疲软。这种疲弱与30年期美债收益率的震荡失控高度重合，暴露出市场对美国深层债务问题的隐忧。 - **低负债表现优异货币**：瑞士法郎（CHF）、新加坡元（SGD）、澳大利亚元（AUD）。 - **债务指标恶化逆转**：美国当前的债务指标恶化程度已在主流经济体中超越日本。 - **美元“走漏”（Leaking）机制**：短期利差与避险情绪未变背景下，美元对传统驱动模型出现负向残差，与长端美债动荡形成联动。 --- ### [31:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1866s) 贝森特的国债回购与“庄家”豪赌 当被问及“是否对某些市场环节即将崩裂感到紧张”时，延斯坦言自己确实非常担忧。他在团队内与负责股票策略的埃里克·刘易斯（Eric Lewis）密集讨论美债收益率的“非线性拐点”：10年期或30年期美债收益率已经逼近一个临界点，一旦跨过，美股极有可能出现剧烈的恐慌性暴跌（equity puke）。为了遏制这种恶化，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）采取了在公开市场回购长期国债的反常规操作。如果美国债务规模处于合理区间，财政部只需按期兑付长端票息即可；正是因为债务负担已成心腹之患，且财政部无法承受以越来越高的收益率持续发债，他们才不得不出手干预，试图通过回购来稳住收益率，避免滑入恶性债务螺旋。 贝森特此前在日元干预中更是抛出了一句震惊四座的狂妄宣言：“我现在就是庄家（I am the house now）。”他宣称自己对外汇市场拥有不对称信息优势，深知日本央行和日本决策层的一举一动，甚至直言“拿财政部长承担风险来说事简直可笑，这正是我的梦想，因为我掌握着不对称信息”。乔什·布朗（Downtown Josh Brown）调侃这段话听起来简直就像奥利弗·斯通（Oliver Stone）电影里戈登·盖柯（Gordon Gekko）式的台词。延斯与贝森特相识多年，他分析指出，贝森特的底气在于精准预判了日本央行的行动——在7月日本央行按兵不动、市场认为9月加息概率仅有微不足道的3到4个基点时，贝森特就笃定加息必然会在随后的会议上兑现，如今市场计入的加息概率已超过90%，证明他确实看准了央行底牌。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 贝森特干预逻辑与长端美债维稳循环 accDescr: 展现贝森特如何通过日元政策预期管理与国债回购来防止美债暴跌及缓解发债成本压力 subgraph DebtSpiral["恶性债务螺旋隐忧"] D1["巨额美债发行压力"] --> D2["长端收益率持续飙升"] D2 --> D3["财政利息支出失控"] D3 --> D1 end subgraph Intervention["财政部对冲工具"] B1["公开市场国债回购"] -.->|"抑制长端利率"| D2 B2["威慑日元空头<br/>'我现在就是庄家'"] --> B3["阻击日本抛售美债"] B3 -.->|"减轻美债抛压"| D2 end ``` --- ### [34:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2088s) 日元干预背后的美债算盘与相互矛盾的宏观政策 贝森特介入日元汇率不仅是为了汇率本身，更是为了给美债市场拆弹。据测算，日本此前为了支撑日元汇率，被迫抛售了高达940亿美元的美债；这种来自海外官方机构的集中清算直接推高了美债收益率。如果美国财政部能够通过口头威慑或政策协调向市场释放强硬信号，以极小的弹药消耗稳住日元，或者为日本提供无需抛售国债即可融资的借贷便利工具（Lending Facilities），就能从源头上消除美债市场的巨大抛压。这是一种成本极低、杠杆极大的护盘手段。 然而，这套打法背后折射出本届政府内部相互冲突的政策目标。一方面，政府极力希望美元对亚洲主要货币适度贬值，以期提振美国国内特定制造业的回流与出口竞争力；另一方面，政府又在全力对抗棘手的通胀危机。主动默许甚至直接促成主权货币贬值，本身具有天然的输入型通胀效应，这与压制通胀的宏观大方向背道而驰。决策层手里能用的政策工具极其有限，却妄图同时解决上百个盘根错节的难题，导致各项政策在执行层面相互掣肘。 - **干预美债保护机制**：通过抑制日元颓势，防止日本财务省继续无节制抛售数以千亿计的美债储备。 - **政策双重诉求冲突**： - 诉求一：弱势美元促进制造业本土化（Onshoring）与出口。 - 诉求二：稳定货币汇率以防通胀死灰复燃。 - **资金支持方案**：探讨扩大特殊流动性互换或定向借贷额度，替代直接变卖现券。 --- ### [37:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2226s) 霍尔木兹海峡地缘危机、能源通胀与美股的异常冷静 对于通胀前景，白宫长期以来的态度近乎盲目乐观，认定只要霍尔木兹海峡危机解除、伊朗局势受控，WTI原油价格就会瞬间从100美元高位崩跌回70美元，物价难题便会迎刃而解。但现实是这场原本被官方宣传为“几周内就能解决”甚至“如同去伊朗一日游”的风波，如今已拖延超过六个月，早前酝酿的和平协议彻底破裂。随着冲突常态化，美军正持续消耗极其昂贵的军事与战略资源，而对手则在有意通过消耗战拉长战线；高油价持续的时间越长，能源通胀就越深地扎根在公众的通胀预期中，一旦脱锚将极难扭转。 令人费解的是，在宏观逆风如此强烈的背景下，美股市场却表现出近乎诡异的迟钝与冷漠。目前10年期美债收益率疯狂上冲，30年期房贷利率即将冲破7%，全美平均汽油价格屡创新高，科技巨头刚刚遭遇了有史以来最惨烈的动量股闪崩（Momentum Crash），但标普500等权指数距离历史高点仅回调了约4%，恐慌指数VIX依然低位徘徊在18附近。整个股票市场仿佛在打着哈欠冷眼旁观。延斯警告称，这种麻木绝非长久之计：如果美债收益率按照当前的速度再狂飙两三周，跨越收益率临界值后，股市必将迎来不可避免的剧烈修正。 ### [39:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2354s) 通胀预期重燃与美联储的政策两难 在国债收益率持续攀升的背景下，债券市场正在消化通胀将长期居高不下的预期。债券收益率可以拆解为实际收益率（Real Yield）与预期的通胀补偿，即所谓的“通胀保平率”（Break-even Inflation Rate）。最近几周，5年期通胀保平率已从原本的 2.2% 攀升至 2.4% 到 2.5% 左右。这一关键指标的变化，直接将压力甩给了即将召开议息会议的美联储。 美联储面对的现实是：当前的通胀基数本身就高于政策目标，同时还要应对 AI 驱动的资本支出通胀与能源价格上涨的双重夹击。在这种环境下，政策制定者根本无法保持放松，“他们到底还能有多淡定？”（"how chill can they really be?"）。政府内部的传闻也印证了这一点，越来越多的官员开始意识到，这场抗通胀之战很可能会演变成一场持续数年的持久战。 - **5年期通胀保平率**：从 2.2% 快速走高至 2.4%～2.5%，表明市场对中期通胀预期的显著重塑。 - **复合通胀压力**：AI 基建带来的硬性需求、能源通胀以及已然偏高的基准通胀，使降息与鸽派立场受到极大制约。 --- ### [40:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2407s) AI 的宏观悖论：长期通缩的美梦与当下资本开支的通胀现实 华盛顿高层最初或许寄希望于 AI 能够带来反通胀（Disinflationary）甚至通缩效果，比如通过提高生产率来给过热的就业市场降温。然而现实发展却南辕北辙：白领岗位的替代尚在演进，底层的蓝领工人与熟练技工（Trades）却迎来了前所未有的繁荣。底层 10% 到 20% 分位数的劳动者薪资增幅极为显著，各类技工供不应求。政客们固然可以在数据中心落成典礼上享受剪彩合影的政治红利，但这一轮狂热的资本开支周期本质上完全是通胀性的。 这种发展让此前过度押注“AI 通缩论”的观点显得脱离实际。例如，知名政策人物凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在获得任命前曾频繁发表演讲，将 AI 的潜在通缩效应作为美联储不应继续加息的论据。然而在现实中，“这种通缩效应在任何真正重要的统计数据中都尚未显现”。AI 从长期来看或许是一项具备通缩潜力的技术，但在它落地的初期，必须经历极其昂贵、资源密集的物理建设阶段。这种建设计划甚至将持续扩张至 2027 年，其引发的通胀效应短时间内根本无法消退。 以半导体关键元器件为例，巨大的计算需求给 DRAM 动态随机存取内存带来了不可思议的供应压力，这也让韩国等供应链核心国家获得了爆发式增长。正如埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）此前在讨论数据中心瓶颈时所指出的：即便整个产业全力踩下油门疯狂扩产，一至两年内或许也只能提供 20% 的产能增量，而市场目前的缺口高达 100%。只要供应端的响应无法匹配爆发式的需求，这种价格上涨的压力就会在相当长的时间内挥之不去。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI技术发展的通胀与通缩传导机制 accDescr: 展现AI在当前建设阶段引发的通胀压力，以及其与长期理论通缩前景的反差。 subgraph Phase1["当前阶段：物理建设与资本开支狂潮"] A["高额 AI 资本开支 (数据中心/基建)"] --> B["上游紧缺: DRAM/能源/铜/电网"] A --> C["蓝领与技工需求暴增，推高底层工资"] B & C --> D["推高通胀预期 (短期与中期通胀性)"] end subgraph Phase2["远期愿景：生产率革命"] E["算力全面普及与自动化"] --> F["全要素生产率飞跃"] F --> G["长期结构性通缩 (尚未在宏观数据中显现)"] end D -.->|"理论承诺与现实差距"| G ``` --- ### [43:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2590s) 股市坚挺的底气、企业债警报与巨头的估值重估 面对地缘政治震荡与居高不下的利率风险，美股市场之所以能够视若无睹并持续上攻，核心逻辑在于基本面：标普 500 指数整体估值并没有泡沫化到极端水平，而企业盈利增速依然维持在 20% 以上的强劲水平。在各大科技巨头明确表示绝不削减资本开支的前提下，市场选择继续顺水推舟。 但讨论也提出了潜在的灰天鹅信号：所谓的“债券卫士”（Bond Vigilantes）是否会突袭企业债市场？如果未来 Alphabet 或 Meta 等巨头再度发行百亿美元级别的企业债，市场不仅不再提供两三倍的超额认购，反而需求寡淡、迫使收益率大幅飙升甚至发行流产，那才会是狂欢派对终结的“终极警报”。目前这种危机尚未降临，哪怕是被普遍视为财务相对偏弱的甲骨文（Oracle），其信用利差虽有波动，但也未酿成系统性问题。 与此同时，巨头们的估值自我修复能力依然令人侧目。以 Meta 为例，几周前其预期市盈率甚至只有 17 倍左右，许多机构弃之如敝履；然而随着华尔街投行将目标价大幅上调 25% 至 30%，市场迅速改变了偏见。Meta 凭借原有的广告现金牛业务叠加开源大模型（如 Muse 等工具），成功在企业级 AI 市场占据了有利地形。只要能证明自己是这场竞争中的最终赢家，巨头们当前的估值就谈不上昂贵。 --- ### [45:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2708s) AI 行情的三轮接力赛，与浮出水面的“第四浪” 回顾过去几年的市场行情，AI 交易实际上经历了一场叙事急剧切换的三阶段接力赛，且每一波领跑的“赛马”都截然不同： 1. **第一波（2023年）：七巨头（Mag 7）**。市场当时的共识是超大规模云厂商（Hyperscalers）掌控着大模型底层，也是 AI 革命的核心利润吞噬者。 2. **第二波（2024年中至2025年）：半导体狂潮（Semis）**。超大规模云厂商的涨势停滞，半导体板块在标普中的权重迅速膨胀至约 20%，半导体 ETF（SMH）经历了史上最激进的单边大涨。 3. **第三波（当前阶段）：企业级软件层（Software / SaaS）**。如今即使半导体企业财报大超预期，股价也会遭遇抛售；资金转而流向了软件层（如 Salesforce 的强劲反弹），市场开始相信最终通过向客户销售 AI 服务兑现利润的 SaaS 公司才是长期赢家。 不过，如果拉长周期观察软件 ETF（IGV）相对于半导体 ETF（SMH）的比率走势图，软件板块整体仍处于漫长的长期下行通道中，近期仅仅是勉强反弹回抽了 200 日均线，叙事的频繁反转很可能在六个月后再次推翻当前的假设。 在这三波公开市场的切换之外，真正的长线资本（主权财富基金、大型养老基金）早已在布局**“第四浪”——能源与基础设施**。这类具备超大支票簿的机构正在扫货发电厂、电网基础设施以及铜等工业金属资产。因为无论上层生态中是芯片厂商还是软件公司胜出，AI 算力运转不可或缺的前提都是庞大的能源与物理电网支撑。 --- ### [47:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2844s) 黄金交易的逻辑断裂：当法币贬值交易对抗历史性实际利率 在探讨铜等工业金属之后，话题转向了传统上对冲政府滥发债务与法币贬值的终极工具——黄金。在常规的宏观分析框架中，黄金作为一种无息资产，其最大的死敌就是高企的实际利率（Real Rates）。当前美国的实际利率已飙升至 2007 年以来的最高水平，按历史经验，投资者更倾向于持有具备可观正向实际回报的固定收益资产，而非黄金。 然而，2022 年特别是 2023 年年中以来，黄金彻底脱离了与美元指数及实际利率的历史负相关性，走出了一条完全独立的行情。推动这轮黄金超级周期的核心力量已不再是传统的宏观散户，而是全球央行的战略性买盘以及跟随央行步伐的投机资本。在这其中，中国的大举增储起到了至关重要的发端作用，中国央行及其官方资本以高度隐蔽而娴熟的手法持续吞吐黄金，彻底重构了该资产在全球宏观图景中的定价逻辑。 - **传统宏观模型失效**：过去只需看清美元走势和实际利率即可推演金价，但 2023 年中之后黄金在实际利率处于十余年高位的情况下持续逆势暴涨。 - **央行战略储备重构**：中国等新兴市场央行的规模化购金行为，打破了战后形成的金融定价模型，使黄金成为主权级别规避地缘金融制裁与债务扩张的硬通货。 ### [48:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2925s) 黄金牛市的深层逻辑与期权狂欢后的降温 Jens Nordvig 深入拆解了黄金强劲上涨背后的资金结构。第一波驱动力量来自全球央行的隐秘与公开买入——即便通过具体资产负债表难以精准捕捉到每一笔流向，但能明确看到主权资金正在持续吸收供给。紧接着是更广泛的央行购金浪潮，以及此前爆发的一波极其壮观的投机潮：不仅集中在黄金 ETF 空间，更体现在 GLD 期权乃至白银市场的狂热联动。 作为每日精细跟踪全球资金流向的宏观专家，Nordvig 指出，散户在黄金期权上的极度疯狂大概率不会在接下来的几个月内原样重演（尤其是像今年 1 月那样夸张的狂欢），因此投资者对短期金价目标的预期需要有所克制。但不可否认的是，ETF 的资金流入依然极其强劲，特别是来自欧洲的资金需求格外坚挺。这种深层支撑的根源在于：投资者对长期国债的配置极度缺乏安全感，转而将黄金视作跨资产组合的硬核对冲工具。因此，即使实际利率继续走高，在多季度的中长周期维度上，黄金依然拥有坚固的买盘支撑。 - **央行首发买盘**：隐秘吸收供给，奠定黄金大级别牛市底层基石。 - **投机浪潮退潮**：GLD 期权交易的“极端狂欢”不可持续，短期目标价位需回归理性。 - **欧洲 ETF 强劲涌入**：长端美债信任赤字促使投资者转向黄金寻求多季度层面的有效对冲。 --- ### [50:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3006s) 可选消费股崩盘与实体消费真相的巨大脱节 Michael Batnick 提出，当前宏观环境正在剧烈变化，若依然机械沿用旧有的分析框架，就会被严重误导。其中最典型的过时信条就是——“可选消费板块的股价能反映整体美股走势或美国消费者的真实健康度”。 社交媒体上（如 Q Capital 2020 等账号）展示的现实看似惨烈：专卖零售股遭遇了毁灭性抛售。比如 American Eagle 单日暴跌 15%、Dick's Sporting Goods（迪克体育用品）一个月内腰斩 38%，Burlington、Casey's General Stores、Advance Auto Parts 等一大批消费股均血流成河。然而，Batnick 调出从 2001 年以来的同店销售复合数据（涵盖 Ross Stores、Bath & Body Works、星巴克、Costco、Target、AutoZone、Dine Brands、Brinker、Williams-Sonoma、沃尔玛、梅西百货、Gap、家得宝、Abercrombie & Fitch、柯尔百货等）却显示，整体同店销售额同比依然保持着 5.1% 的稳健增长；Redbook 商业零售指数同样运行正常。 更夸张的是，标普 500 等权重可选消费指数相对于标普 500 大盘的比值走势图已经崩跌了整整十年（走势一路从左上方向右下方砸落）。然而在它崩盘的这十年里，标普 500 等权重指数和大盘却屡屡创出历史新高。股价反映了过多估值收缩、特异性风险与基金经理的偏好转向（“投资经理就是不想碰这些股票，无论它们基本面多好”），根本无法真实代表宏观经济与消费者底色。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 消费股票与实体消费现实的背离 accDescr: 对比可选消费股票的崩跌与真实信用卡消费、同店销售的强劲表现 subgraph StockView["金融市场表象 (股价信号失真)"] A1["专业零售股重挫<br/>(American Eagle, Dick's 跌 15%~38%)"] A2["等权重可选消费 vs 标普500<br/>连跌 10 年触及历史低点"] A1 --> A3["得出错误结论：<br/>美国消费者'彻底完蛋' (Cooked)"] A2 --> A3 end subgraph RealWorldView["实体经济真相 (真实数据底色)"] B1["同店销售 (2001年以来样本)<br/>同比依然稳健增长 +5.1%"] B2["美国银行卡消费数据<br/>户均支出同比增长 +5%"] B3["扣除通胀的家庭储蓄<br/>依然高于 2019 年疫情前水平"] B1 --> B4["得出真实结论：<br/>实体消费极具韧性，经济强劲"] B2 --> B4 B3 --> B4 end ``` --- ### [52:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3150s) 美国银行（BofA）高频卡数据剖析与税收退税的“滞后助推” 为了寻找绝对真相，Batnick 援引了覆盖数千万美国家庭的美国银行（Bank of America）每月聚合信用卡与借记卡消费数据： 1. **户均支出**：户均卡消费支出同比增长 5%，整体态势极其稳健； 2. **家庭储蓄**：虽然告别了疫情期间大放水的极端高位，但在剔除通胀后，目前实际储蓄水平依然高出 2019 年基准线； 3. **剔除汽油与网络零售后的消费**：实际消费并没有断崖下跌； 4. **必需品 vs. 可选品消费**：美国银行的统计显示，可选消费支出非但没有熄火，反而是一片繁荣（"It's freaking booming"）。 针对这波强劲的消费动能，Jens Nordvig 补充了一个关键变量：今年的“特朗普 2.0”税改预算礼包中包含了重大减税政策（例如加班费免税、社保免税等条款）。由于去年的税费优惠主要体现在今年春季报税后的退税款中，大部分纳税人在 4 月报税截止期提交，资金集中在 5 月打入银行账户。这种直接的流动性注入，给二季度及夏季的消费注入了超额的“补药（juice）”。Nordvig 强调，未来的变数在于这笔钱的消化周期：如果集中在两三个月花完，后续可能出现断档；如果平摊在 6 个月内释放，则消费动力还能维持一段时间。 --- ### [55:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3335s) 体验型消费 vs. 实物零售的结构性分化 Josh Brown 直指传统分类体系的认知盲区：华尔街习惯性将消费板块生硬划分为“可选消费（Discretionary）”与“必需消费（Staples）”，这种分类完全忽略了当代消费行为的结构演变。如果将可选消费进一步拆分为**“体验型消费（Experiences）”**与**“实物商品消费（Items）”**，就会发现体验型消费的走势与银行卡支出曲线完全吻合。 消费者并不是不花钱了，而是不再愿意把钱花在去 Dick's 购买塞满车库的实体杂物上，而是疯狂流向高尔夫球场、航空公司、酒店以及 Live Nation 演出现场。达美航空（Delta Air Lines）不仅在二季度创下支出纪录，甚至在大举扩充商务舱。 Josh Brown 提到美国银行 CEO Brian Moynihan 近期在媒体上的公开讲话。作为掌握全美最多信用卡交易流水的人，Moynihan 明确表示： > “消费者在 8 月份的支出比去年 8 月增长了约 4%，上个季度为 5%。经济一直在稳步前行，这与强劲增长的经济体相吻合。” Brown 感叹道，华尔街各大机构和看空者其实迫切希望 Moynihan 出来喊“经济正在放缓”，因为那样不仅更容易达成下季度的业绩目标，也符合市场的焦虑叙事；然而无论花旗、摩根大通还是美银，没有任何一家顶尖大行的数据显示经济崩溃。比起 Dick's Sporting Goods 的股价，银行流水展示的才是毫无掩饰的宏观真相。 - **分类范式转移**：从“必需 vs. 可选”转向“体验型（高尔夫、航司、演出）vs. 实物型（耐用品零售）”。 - **航司高端需求爆棚**：达美航空二季度创下新纪录，高净值体验需求全面开花。 - **大行首席执行官定调**：Moynihan 确认卡消费增速维持在 4%~5%，无任何实质性萎缩迹象。 --- ### [57:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3460s) “终结者经济”与悬在头顶的油价阴影 在经历了多轮残酷的宏观冲击——包括激进的关税壁垒、顽固通胀、被完全冻结的房地产市场以及飙升的汽油价格——美国经济依然巍然不动。两位主持人和嘉宾将其形象地戏称为**“终结者经济（Terminator economy）”**：抗击打能力极其惊人，多次就业市场报告均实现大幅度超预期反弹。 然而，强韧的劳动力市场与旺盛的经济活力也直接意味着美联储面临更为棘手的通胀粘性，货币政策必须对此保持严阵以待。当 Josh Brown 转向 Jens Nordvig 询问其机构客户当前最为担忧的宏观尾部风险时（是债市失控、外汇危机，还是重要监管人物的言论失误？），Nordvig 指出：目前市场最直观且深层的忧虑，是原油价格在过去几周重新抬头并可能持续上涨，这一大宗商品冲击可能再次颠覆刚刚平静下来的再通胀预期。 ### [58:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3524s) 债市异动与宏观焦虑：从油价到大选政治风险 在探讨当前市场最普遍的担忧时，Jens Nordvig 指出，虽然很难给各项风险明确排定优先级，但石油价格的持续攀升以及美债长端收益率的飙升，无疑是全球机构客户最为紧绷的核心议题。尤其是长端利率的变动呈现出危险的“非线性特征”——一旦长端美债收益率在短时间内快速跳升 20 到 35 个基点，金融环境便会迅速滑入危险区域，这正让股票投资者神经紧绷。除经济与利率指标外，政治层面的不确定性也在迅速升温：大量海外客户反复询问美国大选的进展与制度平稳性，不仅关切选举本身的公信力与平稳过渡，也担忧是否会出现久违的“民主党横扫”（Dem sweep），进而对资产定价产生剧烈冲击。 主持人 Michael Batnick 和 Downtown Josh Brown 追问，面对满天飞的担忧情绪，宏观策略师究竟是会跟着焦虑，还是会因为“市场已经充分消化悲观预期”而感到一丝安慰。Jens 直言，自己职业生涯中绝非热衷兜售“债务危机恐慌”的人，但当前现实已发展到无法忽视的临界点。他观察到，资本市场已经开始在资产配置层面实质性地对债务问题作出反应，这种从口头担忧转向真金白银调仓的迹象，意味着长端利率的压力不再只是纸面推演，而是切切实实地重塑着资产定价逻辑。 - **长端收益率的非线性风险**：收益率在短期内骤升 20 至 35 个基点即会触发“危险领域”，直接对权益类资产估值构成实质压制。 - **全球投资者的焦虑清单**：油价反弹对通胀预期的二次刺激、长端债券供给冲击，以及美国大选结果可能引发的政策与税收变局。 - **从情绪到配置的转变**：债务忧虑不再停留在口头讨论，机构资金已开始根据长期利率中枢上移重新调整各大类资产的配置权重。 --- ### [01:00:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3618s) 双重债务洪峰：超大规模科技巨头、财政两难与房贷隐忧 当讨论到 10 年期美债收益率若突破 5% 是否会引来抄底买盘时，Jens Nordvig 提出了一个根本性的宏观转折：当前市场必须同时消化来自美国财政部和 AI 超大规模科技巨头（Hyperscalers）的天量发债供给。两股巨额借贷洪峰交织在一起，彻底颠覆了以往的债市供求博弈，让人很难轻信“5% 收益率就一定有充沛买盘”的传统逻辑。面对这种供给踩踏，白宫或财政部官员几乎不可能出手勒令科技巨头收敛发债，因为政策制定者正陷入矛盾的双重目标中：一方面希望控制发债成本，另一方面又极度渴望美国 AI 产业在全球竞争中一马当先，靠科技资本支出（Capex）来支撑整体经济增长的韧性。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 债市双重供给挤压与宏观传导机制 accDescr: 展示财政部与科技巨头天量发债如何推升收益率并最终对房地产与股市形成挤压 subgraph 供给洪峰 ["供给端：天量发债踩踏"] US_Treasury["美国财政部发债<br/>（高额赤字融资）"] Hyperscalers["AI 超大规模巨头发债<br/>（天量 AI Capex 融资）"] end subgraph 传导机制 ["债市与利率传导"] YieldSpike["长端收益率中枢上移<br/>（突破 5% 并面临非线性跃升）"] end subgraph 宏观冲击 ["实体经济与市场反噬"] HousingPressure["房贷利率上行至 8% 空间<br/>（低息贷款到期重置断崖）"] MarketTop["美股牛市潜在见顶<br/>（债市终结科技巨头的廉价杠杆）"] end US_Treasury --> YieldSpike Hyperscalers --> YieldSpike YieldSpike --> HousingPressure YieldSpike --> MarketTop ``` 这种供给过剩的恶果正在向实体经济蔓延。Jens 警告，若科技巨头债继续推高基准利率，房贷利率若冲至 8%，将使本就陷入停滞的房地产市场雪上加霜。虽然大量现有房主仍锁定了 3% 至 4% 的超低利率，但随着这批低息抵押贷款陆续面临到期置换（roll over），过去量化宽松（QE）留下的“利率重置后遗症”将以巨大的时滞爆发。Josh Brown 顺势指出，从长远历史来看，4% 到 5% 的名义收益率其实是健康增长经济体中的正常水平，此前全球数万亿美元负利率才是历史畸形。然而，真正的讽刺与诗意在于这一轮美股牛市可能的终结方式：这批人类商业史上造血能力最强、现金流最充沛的巨头，为了赢得 AI 竞赛而主动将自己转型为史上负债规模最庞大的借款人，"直到债市最终向亚马逊们说‘不’的那一刻，市场见顶的信号或许就此确立。" - **双重发债吸收压力**：财政部赤字供给与科技巨头 AI 资本支出发债在时间线上重叠，使得传统买盘支撑位面临失灵风险。 - **白宫的政策悖论**：官方既通过发债回购等操作试图维稳长端利率，又依赖科技巨头的资本开支拉动 GDP 增长，无法对私营部门发债踩刹车。 - **房地产滞后冲击**：3% 房贷利率锁定带来的缓冲期正随着再融资周期逐步逼近而瓦解，利率重置滞后效应将加剧住房部门的断层压力。 - **历史周期的讽刺**：科技巨头从“顶级现金牛”自愿蜕变为“巨额债务人”，如果长端发债成本被自身过度供给推高，债市对科技巨头的融资关闸或将成为牛市见顶的标志性信号。 --- ### [01:03:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3832s) 展望2027：韩国市场的全方位宏观交易机遇与节目总结 在被问及放眼至 2027 年最值得关注的“冷门却极具潜力的宏观交易”时，Jens Nordvig 毫不犹豫地将焦点对准了韩国。他认为韩国正在经历近年来全球最显著、最具代表性的国家级宏观冲击（macro country shock），这一宏观大趋势将持续展现巨大的爆发力。对于交易标的的选择，Jens 强调这是一个兼顾“汇率端”与“股票端”的双重机会：无论是韩元（KRW）的汇率重估，还是韩国股票市场的整体表现，都具备长期做多的空间。 面对 Josh Brown 关于究竟该买入存储半导体龙头（如三星电子、SK海力士）还是买入受益于居民财富增加的韩国中大盘本土消费股的疑问，Jens 认为二者皆可行且相辅相成。随着产业红利的爆发，韩国制造业工人工资大幅上涨、上市公司分红激增、企业资本开支全面启动，韩国经济正呈现出“全引擎点火”的强劲动力，这也让整个消费和中盘股市场迎来外溢机遇。 在节目的尾声，主持人对 Jens Nordvig 的精彩分享表示由衷感谢，并邀请他向听众介绍其机构的最新动态。Jens 说明，其旗下平台已正式整合为 Vanda Macro Research，旗下涵盖提供高频底层的 Vanda Macro Data，以及提炼深度观点的 Vanda Macro Intelligence；听众亦可通过官网 vanda.com 或其社交平台 X 账号（@jnordvig）跟进其持续发布的专业宏观研究洞见。两位主持人最后在轻松幽默的氛围中致谢制作团队与听众，为本期深度对话画上圆满句号。 - **韩国宏观核心逻辑**：存储芯片技术周期、供应链重组与国家产业升级共同引发国家级宏观冲击，支撑资产中长期走强。 - **股汇双轮驱动**：多头交易不仅限于直接投资韩国半导体产业链龙头，韩元汇率、受益于本土消费力提升的中大盘综合股票均具吸引力。 - **Vanda 业务整合**：Vanda 旗下正式划分为专注于底层量化数据的 Vanda Macro Data 与负责深度策略分析的 Vanda Macro Intelligence。 ## Notable quotes > [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=0s) Living the dream — Downtown Josh Brown > [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=0s) another day in paradise — Downtown Josh Brown > [05:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=305s) I've never seen markets being more interesting than they are now — Jens Nordvig > [12:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=735s) Rich people don't talk to robots — Downtown Josh Brown > [19:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1163s) I am the house — Scott Bessent > [31:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=1866s) equity puke — Jens Nordvig > [39:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=2354s) how chill can they really be? — Jens Nordvig > [52:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3150s) It's freaking booming — Michael Batnick > [55:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw&t=3335s) 消费者在 8 月份的支出比去年 8 月增长了约 4%，上个季度为 5%。经济一直在稳步前行，这与强劲增长的经济体相吻合。 — Brian Moynihan ## Mentioned Downtown Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, Jens Nordvig, Franklin Templeton, Scott Bessent, Eric Lewis, Kevin Warsh, Elon Musk, Brian Moynihan, Mark Gurman, Daniel, John, Exante Data, Vanda Research, Vanda Analytics, Vanda Macro Research, Vanda Macro Data, Vanda Macro Intelligence, Nomura Securities, Anthropic, Claude, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, Salesforce, Apple, BlackBerry, Expedia, American Eagle, Dick's Sporting Goods, Burlington, Casey's General Stores, Advance Auto Parts, Ross Stores, Bath & Body Works, Starbucks, Costco, Target, AutoZone, Dine Brands, Brinker, Williams-Sonoma, Walmart, Macy's, Gap, The Home Depot, Abercrombie & Fitch, Kohl's, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Delta Air Lines, Live Nation, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Bank of Japan, iPhone Duo, iPhone Duo Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, Vision Pro, Muse, SMH, IGV, GLD, KOSPI, S&P 500, VIX, WTI Crude Oil ## Video description On episode 259 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and Michael Batnick are joined by ⁠Jens Nordvig⁠ to discuss: rising Treasury yields and the risk of something breaking in the bond market, Scott Bessent’s intervention in the yen and Treasury markets, the massive AI capex and hyperscaler debt boom, whether AI is actually inflationary, oil prices and the Fed, the surprisingly resilient consumer and labor market, America’s growing debt problem, and why Korea could be one of the most interesting macro trades heading into 2027. This episode is sponsored by Franklin Templeton. Learn more at⁠ https://www.ftprivatemarkets.com ►00:00 - Cold Open ►07:16 - Intro ►08:51 - Jens and Vanda ►19:22 - Inflation, Bonds and AI ►47:19 - The Gold Trade ►50:06 - The Consumer and Discretionary Stocks ►58:17 - What are you Worried About? ►01:03:49 - The Most Interesting Trade 👕 Check out The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com 🎙️Listen to our podcasts: TCAF: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/ Animal Spirits: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/animalspirits/ Ask The Compound: https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/ATC/ The Compound Newsletter: https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Josh Brown and Michael Batnick are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. #thecompound #investing #stockmarket #stocks [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4fRLw)

[0:00] Downtown Josh Brown: Living the dream [0:00] Downtown Josh Brown: another day in paradise [5:05] Jens Nordvig: I've never seen markets being more interesting than they are now [12:15] Downtown Josh Brown: Rich people don't talk to robots [19:23] Scott Bessent: I am the house [31:06] Jens Nordvig: equity puke [39:14] Jens Nordvig: how chill can they really be? [52:30] Michael Batnick: It's freaking booming [55:35] Brian Moynihan: 消费者在 8 月份的支出比去年 8 月增长了约 4%，上个季度为 5%。经济一直在稳步前行，这与强劲增长的经济体相吻合。

[0:00] Downtown Josh Brown: Living the dream, bro. [13:46] Downtown Josh Brown: Rich people don't talk to robots. [31:39] Scott Bessent: I am the house now. [31:39] Scott Bessent: So, when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do, and you can bet against me if you want. [31:39] Scott Bessent: Whenever people say, 'Oh, well, Treasury Secretary is taking a risk.' Well, it's my dream. I have asymmetric information. [56:39] Brian Moynihan: That's consistent with a strong growing economy. [56:39] Josh Brown: I trust the credit card data more than I trust the stock price of Dick's Sporting Goods. [63:53] Jens Nordvig: It's like on all cylinders.

[0:00] Do you have any friends in your life who [0:01] you call and they say like sarcastically [0:05] like you say, "How's it going?" and they [0:07] go, [0:08] >> "Living the dream." [0:08] >> Living the dream. [0:09] >> Hey, this is this is my stick. [0:10] >> No. Do you somebody cuz somebody [0:13] somebody did that with me, but they [0:16] meant it. [0:18] >> Like they they were like, "Living the [0:19] dream, bro. [0:21] Are you living?" [0:22] >> Oh, that's No, that's sincere. That's [0:23] nice. I like that. [0:24] >> No, they meant it. Like they are living [0:26] the dream. No, because I don't I go to a [0:29] dark place. face. I'm like, "Really? [0:30] That's your dream? I see how you live [0:31] it." [0:32] >> Mhm. [0:32] >> You're sick. [0:33] >> Is that the wrong response? [0:35] >> No. The the usually [0:37] >> Isn't it douchy though to be like, "I'm [0:39] living the dream." [0:40] >> You I hear what you're saying, but [0:41] usually when people say that, it's like, [0:42] "All right, I'm not talking to you, [0:44] dude." It's like, "This is the [0:44] conversation's over." If somebody says, [0:46] "Living the how you living the dream?" [0:47] It means like, "All right, walk away. [0:48] Like, I have nothing to talk to you [0:49] about." [0:49] >> Well, that's my point. He This is a [0:51] friend of mine. He's dead serious. I'm [0:53] living the dream. [0:54] >> But I if that's your friend, I'm happy [0:55] for your I'm happy for my friends. or [0:57] sometimes [0:58] >> it's it's a weird response to literally [1:00] say, [1:01] >> "Dude, I'm living the dream. I just got [1:02] this. I'm going to Greece. Like, I aming [1:06] killing it." It is. It's weird. I hear [1:07] what you're saying. [1:07] >> I just think it's very douchy because if [1:09] you if you feel that you are living the [1:11] dream, you should have the emotional [1:13] awareness to know that other people [1:14] don't want to hear that. [1:15] >> All right. But you're doing okay. [1:17] >> He's not like talking to a guy in the [1:18] street. [1:20] >> You never know. You never know who feel [1:21] that they they're living the dream, [1:23] right? Like everybody thinks, okay, the [1:25] ultimate thing is to have like an exit [1:27] >> when you like done something, right? [1:29] >> Yeah. Are you are you about to break? I [1:30] mean, you just had an exit. [1:31] >> Yeah. But it's like a [1:34] >> But the next swear is like a roller [1:37] coaster. So it's like [1:38] >> But then the next day after the exit [1:40] >> Mhm. [1:41] >> isn't as good as the day before. [1:44] >> Yeah. And also you you've spent so much [1:46] energy into this exit that you forgot [1:47] about doing all kinds of other important [1:49] things while you were doing it. [1:50] >> Okay. So, we're going to we're going to [1:52] get the we're going to get the story. [1:53] >> In conclusion, Josh wants his friends as [1:55] miserable as he is. [1:56] >> No, I just I was taken aback. I thought [1:58] I thought cuz you know what the other [2:00] thing people say is, "Oh, another day in [2:01] paradise." [2:03] >> Like, say that. [2:04] >> Yeah. [2:04] >> Don't wait. This doesn't sound like an [2:05] act a true friend. There's an [2:06] acquaintance. [2:07] >> Oh, you know who it is. [2:09] >> Actually, I don't want you to guess it [2:10] cuz you probably could guess it within [2:13] three within two guesses. [2:15] >> Is it a home friend or a work friend? [2:16] >> No, work related. [2:17] >> Okay. [2:18] >> You definitely know who it is. You could [2:20] and you could picture him saying it. [2:21] >> It's one of your colleagues. [2:22] >> No, it's not something that works here. [2:24] >> Another day in paradise would suffice. [2:26] We would take We would take that. [2:28] >> Yeah. [2:28] >> Um, what do you think about the iPhone [2:30] Duo? [2:32] >> I I think I need to get it because the [2:34] last iPhone I got was really bad. So, I [2:36] need an upgrade very soon, but uh I'd [2:38] like to have a lot of real estate. [2:39] >> I was very on the fence going into the [2:41] announcement of like I don't know. I [2:43] could see it like going either way. And [2:45] 30 seconds in, I'm blown away. [2:47] >> I am all the way in. I think it's so [2:49] spectacular. [2:50] >> Yeah. Have you been feeling it? [2:53] >> I I think it's going to be a slam dunk. [2:56] >> The the iPhone 2. I think they'll sell [2:58] out however many they can make, which [2:59] will not be a lot. [3:00] >> Should probably go and order one before [3:01] they sell out. [3:02] >> October 16th. [3:03] >> Yeah. [3:03] >> When is that when they go on sale? [3:05] >> Yes. [3:06] >> I think they'll sell out immediately [3:07] because it's novel. [3:08] >> Yeah. [3:09] >> It's a long time since there was [3:10] anything novel. [3:11] >> Yes. [3:11] >> People are complaining about the the [3:12] price tag, the headline price tag. [3:14] >> Yeah. And Gmon said the 18 Pro Max I [3:17] think is like 38 bucks a month. [3:19] >> This is 53. This is the thing. It's [3:21] finance. Who cares? It's $23 more a [3:23] month. Nobody cares. [3:25] >> I I also think don't think Apple is [3:27] targeting the person that's worried [3:29] about the price of the phone. That's not [3:31] who this is for. [3:32] >> No, I think it's it's different from the [3:35] the headset thing. I forgot what it's [3:37] called. [3:37] >> Vision Pro, [3:38] >> right? Like nobody needs that, but [3:39] everybody needs the phone, right? So if [3:40] the phone doesn't really [3:41] >> that's you're spending $4,000 on your [3:43] credit card. very different. [3:44] >> Yeah. So, it the price is $2,000. [3:48] >> Mhm. [3:48] >> Well, I think there's one that was up to [3:51] four almost, right? So, [3:52] >> the tech blogs thought that this was [3:53] going to come out at 2500. [3:55] >> Yeah. [3:55] >> So, they actually surprised consumers [3:58] with a lower a lower average selling [4:01] price for this thing right out of the [4:02] gates. [4:03] >> Yeah. [4:03] >> Which leads me to believe the next [4:06] iteration will be the Duo Pro [4:08] >> and it'll somehow be bigger and faster [4:10] and it'll cost more. You know, they they [4:12] gave themselves room to raise the price [4:14] rather than start out at the high price. [4:16] >> Sounds right. [4:16] >> And have to hear people say, "Oh, it [4:18] flopped." [4:18] >> Yeah. [4:19] >> I don't know at at 2500 if it sells out. [4:21] I think at 2000 it's roughly comparable [4:24] with what the iPhone 18 Pro Max will be. [4:27] >> I think it'll sell them out. [4:28] >> Mhm. [4:28] >> Daniel, you getting one? [4:30] >> Were you excited? [4:32] >> He's waiting for the trio. [4:33] >> Hater. John, [4:35] >> consider it. [4:36] >> Queen, [4:37] >> I want the burgundy 18. To be honest, [4:39] I'm still missing the Blackberry for [4:41] just typing without typos. [4:43] >> Blackberry was good [4:44] >> for for typing it was better, [4:45] >> right? [4:46] >> Um the the key is to lean into the [4:49] typos. Just just let it be part just let [4:52] it be part of the situation. [4:55] >> So Yan's living the dream. Things are [4:57] good. [4:57] >> Are you living the dream? [5:01] >> You're living a You're living a dream. [5:03] >> Let's Let's put it this way. I I've been [5:06] doing macro markets for a fair few years [5:08] and they don't really get any more [5:10] exciting than we have them right now. [5:11] >> You think right now is like prime time? [5:13] >> I' I've never seen markets being more [5:15] interesting than they are now. [5:17] >> Okay. Um, we're going to get into all [5:19] that. So, let's let's not step on it. I [5:21] definitely want to hear that. [5:22] >> Do you mind just uh headphones if you [5:24] don't mind? [5:24] >> Yeah. No, I don't mind. [5:26] >> On the left. [5:26] >> You could tell how you could tell he had [5:28] he had an exit. Look how laidback. Do [5:30] >> you have a tranquilizer before you came [5:31] here? You okay? We're about to do a [5:32] show. Is there a way to charge this [5:34] thing, do you think? [5:35] >> Yeah. [5:35] >> Yeah, we have cords. [5:36] >> Yeah. [5:36] >> Yeah, we can play that. [5:37] >> If we can do that, that would be great. [5:38] All right. [5:38] >> And if you can just stay close to the [5:39] mic, please. [5:41] >> All right, [5:44] let's do that. [5:46] >> We have power. [5:48] >> There you go. 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[6:54] All investing involves risk, including [6:57] possible loss of principle. Franklin [6:59] Distributors LLC, member FINRA, SIPC. [7:17] Uh 259. Lucky 259. [7:22] Ladies and gentlemen, you are now [7:24] rocking with America's favorite [7:26] investing podcast. [7:28] This is the Compound and Friends. We're [7:30] coming to you live from Bryant Park in [7:32] New York City. [7:35] With me as always, my co-host, Mr. [7:37] Michael Batnik. Hello. My name is [7:40] Downtown Josh Brown. First time [7:41] listeners, thank you for joining us. [7:43] Yes, we're your new favorite show. [7:47] Last time listeners, I'm sorry. We did [7:49] our best. [7:51] We have a very special guest. The last [7:53] time Yens Nordvig was here, the phones [7:56] lit up. People were like, "Who is that [7:58] guy? He knows everything." Do you get [8:00] that response everywhere you go or just [8:02] from here? [8:02] >> Only here. [8:03] >> Did you read the comments from your [8:05] video? [8:06] >> I have to say, um, [8:07] >> yeah, you got to get closer. Come on, [8:08] man. This is your second time here. [8:09] >> Yes. [8:10] >> There was um quite quite a good response [8:12] to that. So, um, yeah, got a lot of lot [8:14] of people reaching out. [8:15] >> I mean, you invented CO. I would expect [8:17] that there would be a good response. [8:18] >> We're going to blow the phones up once [8:19] again. Uh Yens Nordvig is president and [8:21] board member of Vanda, an independent [8:24] data analytics and insights firm [8:26] providing positioning data, flow [8:29] intelligence, and tactical macro insight [8:31] to investment professionals globally. [8:34] Yens has spent his career at the [8:36] intersection of global macro markets and [8:39] capital flows. He founded Xanti Data in [8:42] 2016, building the firm into a leading [8:45] macro strategy and data provider serving [8:48] more than 100 institutional clients [8:50] globally. Now take us from there. What [8:53] happened since? [8:54] >> Quite a lot has happened. It's been a [8:56] busy year. So uh we um we merged Exanted [9:00] Data together with Vander. Vander is [9:03] another company that's also focused on [9:05] flows and positioning. So now we we [9:07] think we can absolutely be the best in [9:09] class and that's [9:10] >> so you sold Xanti which was yours um [9:12] which you started 10 years ago to Vanda [9:15] and now you're involved with Vanda. [9:17] >> Yes. So I'm the the president of of the [9:19] company and um leading essentially [9:21] everything we do on the macro research [9:22] front. [9:23] >> What why does it why did the two pieces [9:25] work so well together? Like what was [9:26] Xanti doing that Vander wanted and vice [9:29] versa? [9:29] >> So we wanted to have breath in terms of [9:32] the asset classes we covered. I've [9:33] always been extremely focused on [9:36] currencies, fixed income, and on the [9:38] Vander side, they're more focused on [9:40] sort of macro equity. So, there was a [9:42] nice complimentarity there and um [9:44] >> cuz they're known for tracking what [9:46] investors do in stocks. [9:48] >> That's right. [9:48] >> I know for their retail flow stuff, [9:50] which [9:50] >> Yeah. So, that's that's one of the key [9:52] products that they have an equity focus, [9:54] right? So, that was a nice way where we [9:56] can cover everything and and then the [9:58] other thing I think has to do with [9:59] technology, right? So we we're heading [10:02] into a period where whoever uses AI most [10:05] efficiently and smart is going to have [10:09] an edge and it requires some resources. [10:12] So the the combined resources of the of [10:14] the company are bigger than if we're [10:16] separate and uh we're really stepping on [10:18] the gas on that front. Uh so there's [10:20] going to be a new platform launch soon [10:23] called Van Analytics where we're really [10:25] going to have more breath, more depth um [10:29] in all crosset uh macro assets and uh [10:33] we're going to use AI in a in a in a [10:36] novel way. [10:36] >> So the business will not just be about [10:38] selling the data but actually selling [10:41] the insights that you guys create from [10:43] the data inhouse. And that's obviously a [10:45] premium product because you're not just [10:47] saying, "All right, here's our data [10:49] feed. Figure something out." You guys [10:51] are actually going to figure things out [10:53] and share them with select clients. [10:55] >> You you know from yourself when you run [10:56] your own business, you uh have to learn [10:58] from your mistakes. So So definitely one [11:01] of the things we did at Accented Data [11:03] early on was we try to have uh like data [11:07] only business. [11:09] >> Yeah. Not enough. People want more. [11:10] >> Yeah. Data only business is very tricky, [11:12] right? because [11:14] investors are busy, portfolio managers [11:16] are incredibly busy, right? So they need [11:18] to be told what data is relevant at a [11:21] given point in time. Uh there there are [11:23] exceptions. There are some quant funds [11:25] that are extremely good at finding [11:26] something in the data. uh but most uh [11:29] people still trade on a discretionary [11:30] basis and we find that a combination of [11:32] having really high quality data and some [11:35] lay on top that tells people okay this [11:38] is important right now is the best uh [11:41] model commercially and we're going to [11:42] continue with that hybrid model [11:43] >> you know what the correlary is for that [11:45] to our business the wealth business like [11:47] I could give you an 80F portfolio right [11:51] now I could do it off the top of my head [11:52] without even thinking about it then what [11:55] >> like cuz that tells you nothing about [11:57] what the envir environment is going to [11:58] be 6 months from now, a year from now. [12:00] It doesn't answer anyone's particular um [12:03] questions about their own finances. So [12:05] like the data is not the standalone [12:08] thing anymore. It's like what do we get [12:10] from all this data [12:11] >> and then you can that's something that [12:13] hedge funds want asset managers want [12:15] >> and and then I guess what we really want [12:17] to experiment with is that this insight [12:21] that comes on top of the data [12:25] in my career I have provided it together [12:28] with the team I'm very proud of the team [12:30] we have u from exante data and now [12:34] vander and um the question now is [12:38] whether some of this insight that we can [12:42] generate in an AI environment, [12:45] >> right? [12:45] >> And and we have to get that right [12:47] because our clients still want to have [12:49] like the confidence that this is [12:51] something that's been, you know, vetted. [12:53] We're absolutely confident it's true, [12:55] but nevertheless, there's stuff we can [12:57] do at a higher speed if we create a [13:00] robot for it. Um, so we really need to [13:03] find the right balance between still [13:05] having it vetted absolutely driven by [13:08] like top-notch human sort of conceptual [13:10] thinking, but then there's bits and [13:12] pieces where we can say, "Okay, the [13:13] robot can actually do this piece better [13:16] and faster and then put the the the [13:18] robot to work there." [13:19] >> Yeah. So, there's parts of what you guys [13:21] do that you can have a machine do like [13:24] the heavy lifting, but the vetted part [13:27] is important in your business. People [13:30] want your reputation. They want your [13:32] They want you to take a look at it. They [13:34] don't want a black box where it's like, [13:36] "Well, the machine said this, therefore, [13:38] we don't need an explanation for it. [13:40] Just take it at its word." No, people [13:42] want that final layer of like, "Okay, I [13:44] get it. You're using AI, but what do you [13:46] think?" [13:46] >> Yeah. [13:46] >> And then you have to have a point of [13:48] view. like we we can actually see it [13:50] even in um like like when you run a run [13:54] a business like you can sometimes it [13:56] kind of like goes full circle like some [13:57] of the things you thought a couple of [13:58] years ago were a bad idea have actually [14:00] become a good idea again. So we can [14:02] actually see that there's some of the [14:04] highestend clients actually more so than [14:07] before actually want to get you on the [14:10] phone. [14:10] >> Yeah. which a couple of years ago we [14:12] thought, okay, that's phasing out [14:13] completely. But because there's so much [14:15] information out there that is not vetted [14:17] at all, there's actually some that [14:19] really want to pay for having something [14:20] that has like an extra layer of like [14:22] total realtime personal color and [14:25] vetting on top. I have this heruristic [14:27] where I tell people [14:29] rich people don't talk to robots. [14:31] >> Rich people pay someone else to talk to [14:34] the robots and then take whatever that [14:36] information is and bring it back to them [14:37] like within reason. Um, wealthy people [14:40] don't plan vacations on Expedia. [14:42] >> If their travel agent is utilizing [14:44] Expedia for information, that's fine, [14:46] >> but they want a person who's [14:48] responsible. Y [14:48] >> and I think that corlary is a pretty [14:51] good one both for hedge fun world and [14:54] for wealth management world. Yeah. [14:55] >> Um, you you talk to the machine. Tell me [14:57] what it says. Call me back. I think [15:00] that's always there's always going to be [15:01] a component of that. and and and and [15:03] it's also a matter of of of making sure [15:06] that you know the machine [15:10] even though if the machine is [15:11] mathematically correct like the machine [15:14] might get outdated right so we need to [15:17] continually make sure that we know [15:20] what's happening in the market like [15:22] there's a lot of our models that is [15:23] based on okay what's the what's the sort [15:25] of market micro structure that's [15:27] relevant right now but it changes all [15:29] the time [15:30] >> right [15:30] >> right so we can give like one one is [15:33] okay if I give a specific example. Yeah. [15:35] So like Korea is a pretty interesting [15:37] country now, right? Because [15:39] >> it's it's probably the country where the [15:43] AI revolution is impacting everything [15:46] the most. It's it we obviously in the US [15:48] AI is very important but it's US a [15:50] bigger country right so in and in [15:52] relates to the size of the country it it [15:54] is an enormous [15:56] boom that is happening in [15:58] >> half the half half the stock market is [16:00] memory [16:00] >> it's unbelievable like the like the the [16:04] trade surplus is just exploding I've [16:06] never seen anything like it uh and by [16:08] the way the currency is having having [16:09] its best run ever now in the last 3 [16:11] months so it's all it's all playing out [16:14] but in relation to this uh micro [16:16] structure I was talking about it used to [16:18] be the case that the stock market in [16:20] Korea was driven by foreigners [16:23] and now we've had a period where the [16:25] stock market has gone up so much and is [16:27] driven by something else that actually [16:29] we have the stock market going up and [16:31] foreigners have to sell to rebalance [16:32] their portfolio. So the correlation [16:34] between those flows and and and the [16:37] Cosby is totally flipped. So [16:38] >> what happened the retail population [16:40] caught stock market fever this this [16:41] summer. [16:42] >> The local the local [16:43] >> the locals. Yeah. So, so if you had a [16:45] model that was based on foreigners in [16:47] the past, right, you would have gotten [16:48] totally wrong what's happening now. So, [16:50] you need to adjust your models all the [16:52] time to capture what is new and uh that [16:55] requires that you continually just focus [16:58] on understanding what's happening and [16:59] and [17:00] >> right sometimes the data isn't good [17:02] enough to know when the environment [17:03] around it has changed. Um, I was reading [17:06] about the the the thing with LLMs that [17:10] is constricting what they can actually [17:12] do. LLMs are great at taking existing [17:14] information, synthesizing it, and giving [17:16] you insights from it. Um, but it can't [17:20] think creatively or if it does, it's [17:22] getting itself into trouble with [17:23] hallucinations. And um, somebody was [17:26] saying there's a paper arguing that uh, [17:29] and this probably relevant to the [17:31] research that you guys are doing now and [17:32] what your end client actually wants from [17:34] it. Um, it's very good at induction [17:38] LLMs. It can't do what's called [17:40] abduction. And it's it's like a it's [17:44] like a thing where like the AI can do [17:47] statistical pattern matching. It can do [17:49] all the deduction. It can take all these [17:51] facts and spit out a response, but it [17:53] can't generate novel explanatory [17:56] hypothesis. Like it will never [17:59] >> uh discover Einstein's theory of [18:01] relativity. Like it it can't make that [18:03] creative leap. And we don't want it to. [18:06] The way we've built this is we want it [18:07] to be accurate. We don't want it to be [18:09] creative. [18:10] >> So that's where somebody like you comes [18:12] in where you can look at the output and [18:14] then you could say okay here's what the [18:16] machine says but here's why that might [18:18] not be the right thing to say to a to a [18:19] client. [18:20] >> I think that's exactly right. So [18:22] there'll be you know new themes [18:25] developing that we've never seen before. [18:28] Right. So where's the LM going to [18:30] understand those new things from? So [18:31] that's one example. The the other [18:33] example just has to do with [18:36] we're incredibly focused on on actually [18:38] having proprietary data as a part of our [18:41] platform, right? Which the LLM will not [18:43] know about. Um, and [18:45] >> would you would you do a deal with um [18:47] have you're smiling. Would you do do a [18:50] deal with Anthropic if they said we want [18:51] we we want this data as part of our uh [18:54] model? [18:56] >> You we'll we'll have this is there's a [18:58] real balance. There's a real balance [19:00] there, right? because we we definitely [19:02] have clients that want to consume [19:05] pretty much everything they consume via [19:08] claude. Right. [19:09] >> Right. [19:09] >> And we obviously want to help those [19:11] clients, right? But if we have something [19:13] that's proprietary and we feel that uh [19:16] that aspect of it being proprietary is [19:19] threatened by us sharing it that way, [19:21] clearly we'll have to balance those two [19:22] things. [19:23] >> Okay. [19:23] >> Yeah. As you said, this is the most [19:24] exciting interesting macro environment [19:27] you've ever witnessed in your long [19:28] career. [19:30] um [19:31] >> exciting like we're all about to lose a [19:32] lot of money. [19:33] >> So you I think last time you said that [19:35] Bessant was a client of your former [19:37] firm. Mhm. [19:38] >> Um, are you surprised with his comments [19:41] yesterday where he said, "I am the [19:42] house." And I assume this is the most [19:45] interesting part of it is what he's [19:46] doing, what interest rates are doing, [19:48] what he's saying, what the yen is doing, [19:50] the dollar. Is that everything? Is that [19:53] at the crux of what's making this so [19:55] interesting? [19:56] >> So, we we had Scott Besson speak. We had [19:58] a a 10 year anniversary conference for [20:00] Exxant data in March and Scott Besson [20:03] was one of the speakers and he touched [20:05] on some of the issues you're talking [20:08] about now. Um [20:12] he is a very unusual Treasury Secretary. [20:14] >> Yeah. This is not normal. [20:16] >> It's it's [20:16] >> but on on purpose. [20:18] >> Yeah. On purpose. um he [20:22] has [20:24] traded [20:26] tens of billion of dollar yen personally [20:28] in his life, right? Clearly no other [20:30] Treasury Secretary has done that. Um and [20:34] he's not afraid of the market. Like you [20:37] would ask almost any other Treasury [20:39] Secretary, right? They'd be very scared [20:41] about the the market kind of uh rolling [20:44] them and [20:45] >> currency fluctuation. Yeah, I think the [20:48] currency market is is pretty scary, but [20:50] now we have we essentially have a form [20:52] of intervention both in the currency [20:53] market in dollar yen and we also have a [20:55] form of intervention in the treasury [20:57] market and with these long and buybacks, [20:58] right? So, um he said he doesn't want to [21:02] intervene in the in the oil market. So [21:04] that for some reason he he thinks that's [21:07] a little bit different. But um he is [21:09] he's clearly willing to intervene in a [21:11] in a in a way uh we have really not seen [21:15] for a long long long time. And uh I [21:19] think what is happening with Japan is is [21:22] fairly logical in in the context of his [21:26] history. He's always been a Japan [21:28] expert. Actually the reason I know Scott [21:30] Besson is that I was head of research in [21:32] the moral securities which is the [21:33] biggest Japanese broker right and we [21:35] always talked about Japan uh together [21:38] when [21:38] >> you were you were ranked the number one [21:41] currency strategist by institutional [21:43] investor for five consecutive years [21:45] >> oh yeah what's the do to tomorrow [21:49] >> when were those when were those years [21:51] was that 2010 era yeah that joined the [21:54] more in 2009 and those were the years [21:57] yeah so there was that when the euro [21:58] crisis this happen. [21:59] >> And you think what we're about to see [22:01] might be even more interesting than [22:02] that? [22:03] >> I think it already is because um like [22:07] investors really have to to to pay [22:10] attention to a number of things that [22:13] have not really been in play before. So [22:15] obviously we have a productivity [22:16] development around AI that is [22:21] potentially totally unprecedented, [22:22] right? we can compare with previous [22:24] industrial revolutions and technological [22:26] shocks but this seems more profound than [22:28] any of them. So that's that [22:31] >> why this is tech that improves itself. [22:33] >> Yeah. And also it's just impacting all [22:36] industries at the same time, right? Like [22:38] we think about the railroads and it was [22:39] important but it was like one very [22:41] specific thing and this is impacting [22:43] everything at the same time. Everything [22:44] is software these days, right? And it's [22:46] uh driven by by that obviously. So [22:49] that's important. uh and then we can see [22:52] what's happening with all the hyperscala [22:56] buildout, right? The buildout is now so [23:00] enormous and we're just doing these [23:02] calculations and trying to to make them [23:05] um very precise, but roughly speaking, [23:10] we now have as much bond issuance [23:14] by hyperscalers in the long end of the [23:16] curve as the United States government. [23:19] what this year [23:21] >> right now the moment not early in the [23:23] year but we're getting to this point [23:24] >> the bonds that exist now it's equal to [23:26] what the US Treasury has uh [23:29] >> I would say let's call it the flow how [23:30] much is coming out right now [23:32] >> wow [23:34] >> this is and and and it's not that the US [23:36] government is not issuing a lot the US [23:38] government is issuing a lot we have a 6% [23:40] of GDP deficit right which is also the [23:44] like is at par with the biggest deficit [23:46] Reagan had when he was where people [23:47] thought he's going um uh as hard as you [23:51] can, right? And nevertheless, we have [23:52] these a few private sector companies [23:56] that together are managing to issue as [23:58] much debt in the long end of the curve [24:00] as the US government. [24:02] >> How much do you think that's pushing up [24:04] yields versus all of the other stuff, [24:05] the war, the [24:06] >> competition for treasuries versus [24:10] half? Is it How do you think about that? [24:12] >> I I think it's we can it's hyper [24:14] important. Let's let's put it that way. [24:16] Um like obviously oil prices matter. [24:18] Today we had a massive move, right? [24:20] Again [24:22] um ECB responded to to the oil prices [24:26] and so forth, right? But in the [24:28] background, [24:30] this is something entirely new. We've [24:33] been worrying about the US government [24:35] issuing too much debt and now we have [24:37] another issue or a group of issues that [24:39] is equally big. [24:41] So like all these years where we were [24:45] used to okay we have a low inflation [24:47] environment right and if you have a [24:49] little bit of carry in your credit [24:51] instruments you can always sell it right [24:54] those days are just gone now we have [24:57] such competition for capital that yields [25:00] are being pushed higher [25:01] >> is that bad like [25:04] >> well it'll be nice to know whether that [25:05] those investments are going to be [25:07] productive investments right uh but I [25:09] think [25:09] >> which ones the hyperscaler ones Yeah, [25:10] hypers scale investments. But I think [25:12] what we can say with with great [25:13] confidence that the the companies that [25:17] are going all in on this, Google, [25:21] Microsoft, [25:23] Amazon, Meta, and so forth, they're not [25:27] going to give up anytime soon. Like [25:29] their capex plans for this year and next [25:32] year have continued acceleration in [25:34] them, right? And in terms of how many [25:36] bonds they're going to issue, it's kind [25:37] of like a nonlinear thing because [25:39] initially they could fund it out of [25:41] their free cash flow, right? So every [25:43] extra 10 billion is like mapping into [25:45] the issuance with like higher and higher [25:47] beta. So next year is going to be like [25:50] dramatically more than this year. So [25:52] when I look at the long end of the yield [25:54] curve, it's already pressured, right? [25:57] We've we've seen like multi-deade high [25:59] bond yields. Now, even if the the the [26:01] the treasur, excuse me, the the Fed [26:04] funds rate is not at the high, but the [26:05] long end is. Right. So, [26:07] >> the 10 year the 10ear is at 492 the last [26:10] time I looked. [26:10] >> Yeah. [26:11] >> The last time it hit that level was [26:12] October of 2023. [26:14] >> People were nervous about it then, too. [26:16] >> Yeah. [26:16] >> And it got over five. [26:18] >> It got over five for a cup of coffee and [26:20] then the stock market rallied 80% as it [26:23] fell. Now, it's back up at those levels. [26:26] Stocks have not given up much. We had a [26:29] momentum wipeout last month. Um, but the [26:32] hyperscaler equities are sort of stable. [26:35] They're not at highs, but they're not at [26:37] lows. [26:38] >> And now the question is if we go through [26:40] 5% on the 10 year this time and we're [26:43] already seeing uh 2007 era highs on the [26:47] 30-year. [26:48] >> Yeah. So, [26:49] >> what does that do to the market [26:50] mechanically or how does that change [26:52] psychology? So, so I would say when you [26:55] compare with like in 2007 we got close [26:58] to this level, right? 2003 is the right [27:00] number now. Okay. It sounds like oh [27:02] we've tried this. H it's only you know [27:06] 23 years ago we got there. [27:09] >> Real rates. [27:09] >> No 2023 we were exactly where we are now [27:12] in the tenure. [27:13] >> So [27:14] >> but real rates were higher. [27:15] >> Yeah. But so people go Yeah. But the [27:17] bottom line is it's a long time ago [27:19] since we really been at these levels in [27:21] a sustained way. If we look at the last [27:25] time we were at this type of level, [27:28] which was before the global financial [27:29] crisis, [27:32] the debt levels are totally different. [27:35] So what we could handle back then with [27:38] that level of yields, it's hard to [27:40] imagine we can handle it now. And this [27:43] is why Scott Besson is buying back [27:45] bonds, right? At this level of bonds and [27:47] the 30-year is like meaningfully higher [27:50] than the 10-year, right? curve is is [27:52] pretty steep. [27:54] They don't want to see those bond yields [27:56] going any higher. Mortgage rates like 7% [27:58] also not that great for that sector, [28:00] right? So really what's different now is [28:02] the debt levels are so high. I just [28:05] wrote a report on the way in here on on [28:08] um on the on the train and the CBO, [28:11] right, which is supposed to be a [28:13] bipartisan [28:16] conservative [28:17] >> congressional budget office. [28:18] >> Yeah. Like like a [28:21] a nerdy outfit that just does numbers [28:23] that objective numbers, right? That [28:25] everyone that that everyone then [28:26] ignores. [28:26] >> I hope that the director is not [28:28] listening. He's a great guy. So, um [28:30] nerdy is a compliment. Um [28:33] like if you look at their debt [28:35] projection, right? We got above 100 a [28:38] couple of years ago, right? It's going [28:40] to 200 uh within like a couple of [28:43] decades. Like the the trajectory is so [28:45] steep now. So this is why we really have [28:50] to start to to to look at these debt [28:52] levels in a different way, right? And [28:53] there there's there's lots of people [28:55] who've been scaremongering about debt [28:56] levels for forever, right? So it's easy [28:59] to say, "Oh, we've we we've had the wolf [29:01] crying for a long time, but I do I I do [29:04] think you can really see assets start to [29:07] behave differently here, right?" So [29:09] >> which assets? [29:11] So I I think you can already see it in [29:13] terms of the long the long end behavior [29:16] over the last 3 four months [29:19] has been kind of divorced from economic [29:23] data right it's just doing its own thing [29:24] it's not anything the Fed is really [29:27] saying or data [29:28] >> it's also happening globally [29:29] >> it's also happening globally yeah [29:32] >> uh and and then I would say currencies [29:36] currencies you can see it like we have [29:38] like a if you do kind of a basket of who [29:41] has not a lot of debt and a lot of debt. [29:44] It's starting to really favor the ones [29:45] who don't have a lot. [29:46] >> So, who is that? Switz Switzerland. The [29:48] currency looks better than all the other [29:50] developments. [29:50] >> Yeah. They could be Switzerland, [29:51] Singapore, Australia is is a country [29:54] that actually doesn't have a lot of [29:55] debt. So, if you have long exposure to [29:57] those, you've done very well. Uh places [30:00] that have a lot of debt. Like, okay, you [30:02] can you can rank the the top 30 [30:05] economies in the world. Guess who has [30:07] the worst uh debt metrics? [30:08] >> Japan and US. It's it's actually United [30:12] States now. Japan used to be the worst. [30:15] >> But isn't the worst the best? Like we [30:16] are able to sustain such gigant [30:20] bigger economy. [30:21] >> Yeah. Like it's it's a tricky thing, [30:22] right? Because the dollar is obviously [30:24] still the reserve currency, the main [30:26] reserve currency of the world, right? So [30:28] is it is it special? [30:30] >> Yes. [30:30] >> And it it certainly is more resil than [30:33] everything else because of that, but [30:36] it's not it's not trading fantastically [30:38] well now. So I think you can start to [30:41] see some kind of correspondence between [30:43] when the 30 and US started to wobble and [30:46] the dollar starting to leak. When I say [30:48] leak, what I mean by that is that you [30:50] can have a model for okay, what are the [30:52] standard things that drive the dollar? [30:53] Obviously short-end rates, maybe risk [30:56] sentiment and so forth. And what you're [30:57] starting to see is that there's some [30:59] little residual that is hard to explain [31:01] with those normal things that is is is [31:03] leaking in in a weaker direction. And [31:05] that's what's happening in the last [31:06] >> is something going to break? Are you [31:08] like nervous that something's going to [31:09] happen? [31:09] >> I'm I'm nervous. I think definitely [31:11] also. So now I work I work in a company [31:13] now where we have a lot of equity focus, [31:15] right? Massive like Eric Lewis is the [31:18] head of our equity efforts, right? So [31:22] massive focus on whether like we are [31:23] getting into sort of a nonlinearity in [31:26] terms of like the the 10 year or the [31:27] 30-year moving to a degree where we [31:29] really have an equity puke. So uh we're [31:32] very close to to an amount of move in in [31:35] the yield curve where the equities get [31:37] very vulnerable. Does uh just explain [31:40] what Bessant is doing not not with uh [31:43] the yen, we'll just focus on the US. [31:45] explain to the audience what Bessant is [31:47] trying to accomplish by buying [31:50] longerdated treasuries in the open [31:52] market [31:53] >> and then tell us whether or not you [31:55] think it it's meant to succeed or is it [31:59] kind of best in getting his boss off his [32:01] back [32:01] >> and and doing something very publicly so [32:04] that so that he can tell Trump look I'm [32:07] I'm doing all the things like what what [32:10] do you really think this is about and do [32:11] you think can succeed? [32:14] So I think what's important here is that [32:18] if you did not have a lot of debt [32:21] and you had a few coupons you had to pay [32:25] in the long end, [32:27] you would just pay pay, right? [32:29] >> Retire it. [32:30] >> Yeah. It it wouldn't be a big it [32:32] wouldn't be a big issue, right? But [32:34] because [32:35] the debt is a problem and because they [32:38] don't want to issue at higher and higher [32:40] yields, they're trying to do something [32:42] to save themselves money. So [32:45] the essence of what is happening is that [32:49] they can they they they fear that the [32:53] debt dynamic is going to take over and [32:54] it's going to be a negative spiral, [32:56] right? And they're trying to stop this [32:57] negative spiral by holding the yields uh [33:00] via these buybacks. [33:02] >> Is that what he means by I'm the house, [33:03] meaning I can buy more treasuries than [33:05] you can short. [33:06] >> Does that ever work? So, so, uh, it's a [33:10] it's a strong statement that was made in [33:12] the context of of the of the yen. [33:15] >> Here's the statement. I am the house [33:16] now. So, when we intervene with the [33:18] Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight [33:20] into what the Japanese what the Bank of [33:22] Japan is going to do, what Japanese [33:23] policy makers are going to do, and you [33:25] can bet against me if you want. Whenever [33:27] I mean, this is a lot. Whenever people [33:29] say, "Oh, well, Treasury Secretary is [33:30] taking a risk." Well, it's my dream. I [33:33] have asymmetric information. So he's [33:35] saying that he knows [33:36] >> sound like a speech that Oliver Stone [33:37] would write for one of his characters. [33:39] >> He he knows what the Bank of Japan is [33:41] going to do. [33:41] >> It's almost like geckoesque. [33:43] >> So he's saying what? You're right. That [33:45] they're going to raise rates. What is he [33:47] saying? [33:48] >> So [33:51] I've known Scott Besson for a long time. [33:54] It's extremely unusual what he's doing. [33:57] But when the intervention happened, the [34:00] question we got from clients was okay, [34:02] how how can they intervene [34:05] when uh the bank of Japan has just [34:08] passed on hiking rates. They did not [34:10] hike in July. Why would they intervene [34:14] if the bank of Japan was not serious [34:16] about getting rates higher? And the [34:18] explanation is very simple and it's [34:20] embedded in that statement you just read [34:22] out. And that was Scott was pretty [34:24] confident that he essentially could [34:26] somehow orchestrate that the hike would [34:28] come at the next meeting, right? So he [34:30] was willing to do the intervention on [34:31] the expectation that the hike is coming. [34:34] The the hike in September, right, was [34:37] priced by three or four basis points. So [34:39] nothing was priced when the intervention [34:41] happened and now it's priced like more [34:44] than 90% probability, right? So fully [34:46] priced. So he wasn't wrong on this. [34:48] >> But the yields haven't stopped moving. [34:50] So in the long end you mean [34:52] >> just right the tenure is screaming [34:53] higher right now. [34:54] >> Sure. So is he doing this Japan [34:59] intervention because he wanted to [35:00] achieve something specific in the US [35:03] Treasury market or is he doing it [35:05] because he actually want the dollar to [35:07] be weaker. [35:10] This is a this administration is facing [35:12] a pretty complex mix of challenges, [35:14] right? Because they only have so many, [35:17] you know, policy steps they can do and [35:19] they need to solve like a 100 different [35:20] problems with with those different [35:22] steps. So I think they would like to [35:24] have a weaker dollar against Asian [35:26] currencies because they feel that could [35:28] help manufacturing in some parts of the [35:30] country. So that's the sort of weak uh [35:33] weaker dollar. [35:34] >> Well, isn't it two things? It's one [35:36] onshoring. If Japan exports are suddenly [35:38] more attractive, it it works against us. [35:40] And also, my understanding is that this [35:42] is a cheaper way to influence policy. [35:46] So, Japan, I think they had to sell what [35:48] was reported $94 billion worth of [35:50] treasuries in order to finance what [35:52] they're doing. If he can prevent that, [35:54] that is a more cost-effective way to [35:55] step in. [35:56] >> Agreed. So, so clearly [35:59] it it is not really in the US's interest [36:01] to have uh the Bank of Japan or it's [36:05] really the minister of finance in Japan [36:06] doesn't matter those [36:07] >> wizards [36:09] >> the wizard of finance [36:10] >> it's not it's not in in in the US's [36:13] interest to have them sell a ton of [36:14] treasuries right that precious up yields [36:16] right so clearly by sending some kind of [36:20] signals where the intervention is [36:22] successful with less ammo being spent [36:25] makes some sense from a treasure marker [36:26] perspective. There's also been talk [36:28] about them being able to use kind of [36:31] some kind of lending facilities more [36:33] aggressively so they can get the funding [36:34] to do their uh intervention without [36:37] having to sell treasuries. So all that [36:40] makes some kind of sense. But um I think [36:44] there's a there's a the currency [36:46] dimension that is interesting and it's [36:49] it's pretty interesting that we have [36:52] this kind of currency dimension where [36:54] the administration is willing to endorse [36:57] currency weakness and even actively [36:59] pursue it while we have inflation [37:02] problems at the same time. [37:03] >> Right? Those two things don't seem to go [37:05] together. [37:06] >> No. And yet and yet [37:08] >> that that just tells you that we have so [37:10] many conflicting goals and policy. [37:12] >> The administration's attitude toward [37:13] inflation has been sort of like well as [37:17] soon as we get the Iranians under [37:19] control and we unblock the straight of [37:21] Hormuz uh WTI will crumble from 100 back [37:26] to 70 and everything will be fine again. [37:28] >> Yeah. [37:28] >> Um so that has not happened yet. Um, but [37:31] like that seems to be what they're [37:33] saying, even if they're not saying it [37:35] that way. But it's already it's already [37:36] gone on for too long. And that's now be [37:39] and now higher energy prices are [37:42] embedded like are the new like inflation [37:46] uh expectation and it's hard to shake [37:48] that once it starts. [37:49] >> Yeah. Do you guys think that it's [37:51] strange given everything that we're [37:53] talking about with yields just screaming [37:56] higher that the and and uh mortgage [37:59] rates are about to hit 7% although [38:00] that's been a problem forever so maybe [38:01] that's not moving the needle. Uh [38:03] gasoline national average is is keeps [38:05] bumping up and yet the VIX is at 18. S&P [38:09] equal is like 4% off its highs. [38:11] >> Yeah. [38:12] >> Um there's just no fear at all. Oh and [38:16] we just had the nastiest tech momentum [38:18] crash. [38:19] >> Yeah. on record and yet the stock market [38:21] is just yawning. [38:23] >> Yeah. [38:24] >> Are you surprised by that? [38:26] >> I I will be I'll be surprised if we have [38:31] if we have a couple of more weeks of [38:33] this yield move. I'll be very surprised [38:34] if there's not a reaction in equities. [38:36] And I think I think the point you make [38:38] about oil is important. Right. Because [38:42] >> we're now more than six months into [38:45] this. Right. [38:46] >> Right. And it was supposed to last a [38:47] couple weeks. We we had a deal on the [38:50] way, right, that is obviously totally [38:51] fallen apart. [38:53] >> And um [38:54] >> he called it like an interlude. [38:56] >> Yeah. [38:57] >> Or or something like a like a day trip [38:59] to Iran. [38:59] >> And I and I think it's also increasingly [39:02] clear that the US is expending quite [39:05] valuable resources [39:08] um and um the opponent sort of [39:12] deliberately doing something to to make [39:14] that problem bigger. So that's not going [39:17] to make the the situation any easier. So [39:19] this could go on for a while. I think [39:20] we've also had had rumors from different [39:22] people in the administration that they [39:23] know this could be a multi-year thing [39:26] now. So [39:27] >> so that's what's being priced into bond [39:28] yields that [39:29] >> Yeah. And you can see it as well like if [39:31] you if you look at the bond market, [39:32] right? There's a there's a concept [39:33] called break even, right? You can split [39:35] the the bonds into what's the real yield [39:37] in the bonds and what's the inflation [39:38] that's expected that people call the [39:40] break even. And uh that has also started [39:43] to move in the last couple of weeks. So [39:45] if you look at 5year break even right it [39:46] was 22 now it's 2425. [39:50] So that's also relevant for this Fed [39:53] meeting that's coming up right like how [39:54] chill can they really be? The AI [39:57] inflation is here the energy inflation [40:00] is there and they're coming from an [40:03] inflation level that is already above [40:05] target. Like it's it's hard to be too [40:07] relaxed. [40:07] >> Do you think the administration was [40:09] hoping that AI would be deflationary or [40:12] disinflationary? [40:14] um because it would cool down the jobs [40:16] market, which really hasn't happened. [40:19] And now they're looking at this like, [40:20] all right, so it's a capex boom. It's [40:24] great, great for photo ops. Every time [40:25] they open a new data center, we can put [40:27] an official there to cut the ribbon. Um [40:30] but it's not disinflationary at all. And [40:32] if anything, workers in the bottom 10 [40:35] and 20th percentiles are actually seeing [40:38] more meaningful uh wage hikes. people [40:41] working in the trades have never been [40:42] more employed and it sort of is not [40:45] playing out the way maybe they would [40:47] have hoped as recently as nine months [40:49] ago. [40:50] >> Yeah, [40:50] >> there's some element of that. [40:52] >> Absolutely. That this this technology is [40:55] it's pretty it's been pretty hard to to [40:58] forecast. It's moving so fast and it's [41:01] hard to compare to these previous [41:02] technology shocks. And uh Walsh still [41:06] did did a lot of public speaking be [41:08] before he was appointed, right, where he [41:09] talked about deflationary effects of AI [41:11] and kind of used that as an argument not [41:14] to hike rates. And it it's it's probably [41:17] one of the things that made him a bit [41:20] what should we say schizophrenic in [41:21] terms of like sounding hawkish at one [41:23] meeting and do [41:24] >> this inflation is not showing up [41:26] anywhere that it matters. [41:27] >> No. So I think I think that where we are [41:29] is that there's a technology [41:33] that has a promise of being deflationary [41:36] in the long run but the technology is [41:38] being built and as we already discussed [41:41] building is so expensive right that that [41:44] demand is creating incredible pressure [41:47] on DRAM that's why Korea is benefiting [41:49] so so much and some other things as as [41:52] well right and at the moment we're just [41:54] experiencing those inflationary effects [41:57] and if the capex is going to continue to [41:59] ramp up into 27 which seems highly [42:02] likely right it's it's it's very hard to [42:06] to imagine that that this inflationary [42:08] force is going to go away anytime soon [42:09] there's a guy called Elon Musk you might [42:12] have heard about him right so he he he [42:15] knows something about some of these [42:16] issues so he said yeah we we're [42:18] obviously going to get a supply response [42:20] right so we're going to get a supply [42:22] response clearly like you can make a ton [42:24] of money making [42:25] >> meaning though we'll more memory plants [42:27] to satisfy all [42:29] >> and by the way that's uh that's what's [42:30] happening in Korea now like we're going [42:31] to have a massive investment boom in in [42:33] Korea uh I think growth is going to [42:36] surprise in Korea in a massive way but [42:39] his point was okay if you really step on [42:42] the gas and build a lot of extra [42:43] capacity maybe within a year or two you [42:46] can get a 20% increase and what we need [42:49] is 100%. like that that was that's just [42:52] quoting him, [42:53] >> right? [42:53] >> But he he he's built some data centers [42:55] himself. I think uh it's not irrelevant [42:58] to to get these projections from people [43:00] who are actually in the data center [43:02] business themselves and I think it's [43:04] going to be very hard for supply to [43:06] match this demand and therefore the [43:07] price effect is going to be there for a [43:09] sustained period of time. [43:10] >> So that's it. I mean to not overthink [43:12] things in terms of why is the market [43:14] looking past all of these geopolitical [43:17] interest rate risks. It's because the [43:19] stock market is not particularly [43:21] expensive and earnings growth is 20 [43:24] plus%. And it's expected to be that way [43:28] for a while. Now obviously this could [43:29] look foolish in three weeks if stocks do [43:31] fall 20%. Um but you just said [43:34] everybody's saying the same thing. [43:35] They're not go they're not slowing down. [43:37] >> No. And until they until somebody says [43:39] otherwise, the market will act as if [43:42] >> could we have bond vigilantes show up in [43:45] the debt market for corporates. [43:47] Meaning could could Alphabet or Meta or [43:50] somebody come to market with another [43:51] debt offering that instead of being two [43:54] to three times over subscribed, it's [43:56] actually underwhelms the rate goes up or [43:59] the deal gets cancelled. Like that has [44:02] not happened yet. But wouldn't that be [44:04] the ultimate signal that the party's [44:06] over? I think that the a lot of people [44:08] have been looking at Oracle as as the [44:10] less strong player in this space, right? [44:13] And their credit spreads have also been [44:16] volatile. But I I saw today like there [44:19] was a a major bank that upgraded Meta. I [44:21] think the price forecasts got raised by [44:25] 25 or 30%. Uh because that company is [44:28] like having all its existing businesses [44:31] and now they'll actually have like an [44:32] enterprise AI business on top. They [44:34] launched they launched Muse which is [44:36] going to be like a an openweight model I [44:38] guess like a freeto use model [44:40] >> that they'll make money from people [44:41] using it. [44:41] >> Yeah. [44:42] >> So so that there's there's a lot going [44:45] on. So I agree when you when you look at [44:47] some of these companies right like [44:49] actually their valuations [44:52] if if they are going to be the winners [44:53] or one of the winners like the valuation [44:56] is not that extreme right the the trick [44:59] >> met was like 17 times f earnings nobody [45:01] wanted it two weeks ago. [45:02] >> Exactly. Yeah. So, so the trick is okay, [45:06] who whose lunch are they going to eat? [45:08] >> Well, but so, so this is this has been a [45:11] rally in three stages. The initial stage [45:14] in 2023 was Mag 7. [45:16] >> Mhm. [45:16] >> The consensus was the hyperscalers are [45:19] going to win AI. They are going to be [45:21] the engine behind it and that's where [45:23] the profits will acrue. And then [45:26] sometime mid 2024, late 2024, everyone's [45:28] minds were changed. the hyperscalers [45:31] stopped going up and the semiconductors [45:33] became I don't know 20% of the S&P [45:36] semiconductor rally in history for half [45:39] of 24 and all of 25 and then this year [45:42] it's switched again the semis are now [45:45] reporting blowout numbers and the stocks [45:46] are falling what's going up the software [45:49] layer now the market seems to have [45:52] become convinced actually same as ever [45:55] it'll be the SAS the enterprise SAS [45:57] companies who sell the most AI to [46:00] people and they will be the winners. So, [46:02] we've had like a horse race with three [46:05] different horses leading in three years. [46:07] The narratives are changing so fast. I [46:10] wouldn't even rest comfortably on this [46:12] new software thesis just because [46:14] Salesforce came back. [46:15] >> Yeah. [46:16] >> Um who what are they going to decide is [46:18] the AI winner next week? I don't know. [46:20] >> Oh, if you if you zoom out um and you [46:22] look at a ratio chart of IGV divided by [46:24] SMH, obviously it's in a long long [46:26] downtrend. It bounced back to its 200 [46:29] day barely. I mean, if you zoom out, the [46:30] rally looks like nothing. [46:32] >> So, we could easily in six months be [46:33] talking about this all over again. [46:35] Actually, software is [46:36] >> I I would add a fourth fourth wave, [46:38] right? So, this a little bit harder to [46:40] see, but we we deal with a lot of uh we [46:43] deal with a lot of hedge funds around [46:44] the world, but we also deal with people [46:45] who take more long-term investments like [46:47] pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, [46:48] and so forth. And I I think their main [46:51] focus has been on the energy, right? So [46:54] they would invest in the power plant or [46:57] grid infrastructure. [46:58] >> No matter who wins, it all needs energy. [47:00] >> Yeah. Or even in the metal space, right? [47:02] Copper is going to be a part of this as [47:04] well, right? So there there are there [47:07] there are a lot of kind of derivative uh [47:09] expressions and some of those plays will [47:11] be maybe not so much in the public [47:12] market. So you need to have a very big [47:13] checkbook to participate. Uh but uh very [47:17] big investors have definitely been doing [47:18] that aspect of it for for for several [47:21] years now. You mentioned copper and [47:23] industrial metal. Yeah. [47:24] >> Early we didn't speak about gold which [47:25] traditionally has been the debasement [47:27] trade. All right. I don't like I just I [47:29] don't like what's happening. I don't [47:30] trust the government. There's too much [47:31] debt. I just don't like this. I'm going [47:33] to buy gold as an alternative. [47:35] >> Yeah. [47:35] >> Problem is when real rates are going up [47:37] like they have been. They're the highest [47:39] they've been since 2007. That is a [47:40] legitimate competitor. I don't really [47:42] want to own a a precious metal. I'm [47:44] going to own something that has a very [47:45] positive real rate of return. [47:46] >> Yeah. [47:47] >> So that further complicates matters. So, [47:50] so gold has been a lot of fun to analyze [47:54] in the last couple of years. Like I [47:56] never really found that that gold was a [47:58] particularly exciting asset until 22. [48:03] Like it it moved with the dollar move [48:05] with real rates and if you knew what the [48:07] dollar was doing and you knew real rates [48:08] doing like you know roughly what gold [48:10] was doing, but it wasn't doing anything [48:11] on its own. But since 22 and especially [48:14] middle of 23, [48:16] gold has been doing something that's [48:17] totally different. So, I'm not saying [48:19] the real rates are not relevant, but [48:21] there's been something else. And [48:24] >> we think it's it's central bank buying [48:26] and speculators betting on more central [48:28] bank buying. [48:28] >> Yeah, we've been we've been through [48:30] different waves, right? So, there was I [48:32] would say the liftoff when that [48:34] correlation to rail rates really broke. [48:36] Where's China? China started to [48:38] accumulate a ton of gold. Is it the [48:40] Chinese central bank? China is [48:42] incredibly skilled at at not being [48:45] totally transparent about what's going [48:47] on. of finding which specific balance [48:48] sheet it's on. It's hard but we can see [48:50] >> either way you know it's coming from big [48:52] >> they they they absorbing it somehow. So [48:54] that was the first wave. Then there's [48:56] been broader central bank buying. Then [48:59] last year we had an incredible [49:02] kind of spec wave that both played out [49:05] in ETF space and also all those GLD [49:07] options. So silver took off too. [49:10] >> Yeah. This is this is what we do on a [49:11] day-to-day basis like tracking all those [49:13] flows in incredible detail. Right. So I [49:15] would say right now [49:18] it's hard for you to imagine that we're [49:20] going to get the same level of bonanza [49:22] in option trading, retail option trading [49:24] and gold. So I think that means that the [49:27] targets you want to have for gold in the [49:29] next couple of months needs to be [49:30] tempered from okay we already had the [49:32] biggest bonanza ever right and it's they [49:35] probably not going to repeat what we had [49:36] in January but the ETF flows have been [49:38] incredibly strong especially out of [49:41] Europe actually. So um there is some [49:44] very persistent demand that I think is [49:47] going to mean that even if real rates [49:49] continue to go up, gold's going to have [49:52] some support and it's to do with what we [49:54] started speaking about, right? People [49:56] are not comfortable buying long in [49:57] bonds, right? So they feel that there's [49:59] some kind of hedge involved in the gold [50:01] trade and I think on a on a [50:03] multi-quarter horizon that demand will [50:06] be there. You mentioned earlier that [50:09] when you're feeding data into a model, [50:12] as the world changes, we might be using [50:14] an outdated playbook. [50:16] >> And I think one of the things that I [50:18] don't subscribe to anymore is that [50:21] discretionary stocks tell you a lot [50:23] about either the stock market or the [50:26] consumer. [50:27] So, uh, yesterday I saw a guy Q Capital [50:31] 2020. Now, that's a satirical account. I [50:33] don't know if he's kidding or not, but [50:34] um doesn't matter because what he's [50:36] showing is real. A lot of the consumer [50:38] stocks, specialty retail, have been [50:41] blown to smitherreens, right? Like [50:43] American Eagle today down 15%. Dix in [50:46] the last month down 38%. Burlington guy [50:49] Casey General Store, I mean a million, [50:51] they're all they're all getting killed. [50:52] Advance Auto Parts, whatever whatever it [50:53] is, you name it, they're getting killed. [50:55] So, I brought some charts um that I want [50:58] to go through. Uh let's start with chart [51:01] 11, please. So, this is the United [51:03] States Redbook Index and retail sales, [51:06] right? Just retail sales year-over-year. [51:10] Nothing really in here that is [51:11] noteworthy. [51:12] I had the guys take a look at all of the [51:15] names of companies that reported same [51:18] store sales going back to 2001. So, we [51:21] have like a decent data set here. Chart [51:24] 12, please. So, this looks pretty [51:26] similar to this latest chart. So in here [51:29] it's a composite of Ross Stores, Bath & [51:32] Body Works, Starbucks, Costco, Target, [51:35] Autozone, Dine Brands, Brinkler, William [51:37] Sonoba, Walmart, Macy's, Gap Home, [51:39] Depot, Abberroie, and Kohl's. And same [51:42] store sales. All right, it's up 5.1% [51:46] year-over-year. So where I'm going with [51:48] this is chart 13, please. If you look on [51:52] the left at an equal weight [51:55] discretionary relative to the S&P 500, [51:59] this thing is at the lowest levels. [52:00] >> Crashing. [52:01] >> It's crashing. But guess what? It's been [52:04] crashing. It's been going from the top [52:06] left to the lower right for the last [52:08] decade. And it's told you nothing, [52:11] nothing at all about the stock market. [52:14] This has happened while the stock market [52:15] equal weight and otherwise is at an [52:17] all-time high. So instead of looking at [52:19] the stock price, which has all sorts of [52:21] information in there, it could be [52:23] valuations, it could be idiosyncratic [52:24] risk, it could be [52:25] >> I think it's like portfolio managers [52:27] just don't want to own those stocks. It [52:28] could be a million no matter how well [52:29] they're doing. [52:30] >> What does Nike say about the consumer? I [52:31] don't know. I don't know. So I look to [52:35] uh Bank of America has a a set of charts [52:37] that they put out every month. I'm sure [52:39] you're aware of this. Uh let's go [52:41] through some of these. [52:43] Spending, consumer spending eased a [52:46] little in July. Chart 14, but the [52:48] overall picture remains robust. Bank of [52:50] America total aggregated credit and [52:53] debit card spending per household [52:54] increased 5% year-over-year. Next chart [52:59] that spending, this is household [53:01] savings, [53:03] inflation adjusted relative to 2019 [53:06] levels. Of course, coming off the sugar [53:09] high of all that money printing, but [53:11] still [53:12] >> back it looks like back to normal [53:13] >> above where we were in 2019. inflation [53:16] adjusted. Next chart, we're looking at [53:18] total cart spending excluding, it's not [53:21] just gas, excluding gas and online [53:24] retail still growing. Uh, now there's [53:27] inflation here, okay? So, if you strip [53:28] that out, it's whatever. It's flat. It's [53:30] not crashing. Lastly, and this is maybe [53:32] my final this is my final point here, [53:34] necessity spending versus discretionary. [53:37] And Bank of America serves the nation. [53:40] It serves a millions, tens of millions [53:44] of American households and discretionary [53:47] spending is doing. It's hard to say a [53:50] bad thing about this. It's freaking [53:51] booming. So, I don't think chart offs [53:55] please. I don't on the one hand it is a [53:58] little bit disconcerting to look at all [54:00] of these discretionary stocks. Not all [54:01] of them. Target's working. Abom is [54:03] working, but there's a lot of them that [54:04] are down 30%. So, I don't want to [54:06] completely dismiss the stock market, but [54:09] if you go to the source of the truth, I [54:12] don't know that it says a lot. I don't [54:15] know that the consumer is cooked because [54:16] the stocks are [54:17] >> Yeah. So, I think I think one thing [54:19] that's pretty tricky this year is that [54:21] we had these big tax refunds, right? So, [54:26] the big Trump 2 budget [54:30] >> giveaway, a beautiful bill. [54:32] >> Yeah. was the fact that we had the no [54:34] tax on overtime and no tax on social [54:37] security and and those types of things [54:40] and whatever happened last year only got [54:44] refunded when you filed your tax return [54:46] this year. Right? So there was a lot of [54:48] people who got refunds and you can file [54:52] really in in in February but most people [54:54] file around the deadline in in in April, [54:57] right? And then you get your money maybe [54:59] in May. So, a lot of people got money in [55:01] the bank in May and then it takes some [55:04] months to spend it. So, I think some of [55:06] what you're seeing in these charts you [55:08] you show there was sort of the juice [55:10] from those tax refunds. And then the big [55:12] question is how over how many months is [55:14] it going to be spent? If it's just a [55:16] couple of months, then there could be [55:17] something coming after that. If it's [55:19] spread over 6 months, we have another [55:21] couple of months of it. Uh but I think [55:23] that's that's one thing that worries me [55:25] a little bit that we had some extra [55:27] juice from those tax refunds. Well, we [55:28] have $5,000 coming. What are you going [55:30] to do with yours? [55:31] >> Yeah, we I don't Let me put it this way. [55:33] I don't think I'm going to spend it [55:34] before it's in the [55:35] >> I think you're I think you're dividing [55:37] the charts wrong. So, no, no, you're not [55:40] making a mistake. I'm saying the way [55:41] that the market thinks about thinks [55:43] about consumer spending. When they look [55:45] at stocks, they break it up into [55:47] discretionary versus staples, right? [55:50] Like consumer staples, mostly food and [55:52] tobacco. And but the reality is if you [55:55] were to break up the discretionary [55:57] sector by experiences versus items, you [56:01] would find that the experiences chart [56:03] tells the same story as all those credit [56:04] card spending charts. Correct. So if you [56:06] just had a a bucket that was golf [56:09] courses, airlines, you're right. You're [56:11] right. [56:11] >> Hotels, Live Nation, [56:14] >> like things that people can do versus [56:17] items at Dicks that they no longer want [56:19] to fill their garages with. I think [56:21] that's more close to the truth totally [56:23] of what the consumer is doing with their [56:24] their capital right now. [56:26] >> Yeah, I get you get that you get that [56:28] from the airlines as well that [56:30] >> right [56:30] >> like I think Delta is expanding the [56:32] business class. [56:33] >> They had record they had record spending [56:35] in Q2 like during all of the [56:38] >> Yeah. Moahan was on TV today. Um he said [56:42] uh there is I forget the exact wording [56:46] but but it was literally like or maybe [56:49] this is yesterday [56:51] he said uh so Moan is Bank of America [56:54] CEO and most of the credit cards run [56:57] through his hands and he said the bank's [56:59] data shows consumer spending and credit [57:01] remain healthy um despite rising [57:04] gasoline prices. quote, "Consumers spent [57:06] in the month of August about 4% more [57:09] than they spent last August. Last [57:11] quarter it was 5%. So, it's kicking [57:13] along. That's consistent with a strong [57:15] growing economy." He would love to be [57:17] able to come out and say things are [57:20] slowing. [57:21] >> I think he would love to be able to say [57:22] that because it's easier for him to make [57:25] his numbers for next quarter. [57:27] >> It's just not what he's seeing. [57:28] >> Yeah. [57:29] >> And people are dying for him to say it, [57:31] >> but he's not saying it. City's not [57:33] saying it. JP Morgan is not saying it. [57:35] None of them are saying it. I trust the [57:37] credit card data more than I trust the [57:39] stock price of Dick Sporting Goods. [57:40] >> Yeah, we we we had we've obviously had a [57:42] big debate about what's happening labor [57:44] market, right? The labor market has [57:46] surprised massively on the upside last [57:48] couple of readings, right? So the [57:50] economy is not falling apart, right? And [57:52] that's also why uh we we have these [57:56] inflationary pressures, right? And [58:00] >> the labor market is not soft. They they [58:01] have to respond. [58:02] >> Yes. It's amazing how much has been [58:04] thrown at this economy. [58:05] >> Sure. [58:05] >> Tariffs, inflation, [58:08] frozen housing market. I mean, a frozen [58:10] housing market, gas prices, and nothing [58:14] is budging. [58:15] >> Terminator economy. [58:16] >> It's unbelievable. We Yeah, we we have [58:19] we have been through a lot. Um, what are [58:21] you worried about? [58:23] >> It's the bond market. Is it currencies? [58:25] Is it uh somebody saying the wrong thing [58:28] in front of a microphone that's in a [58:30] position of authority? like what what's [58:32] the thing that that people are coming to [58:33] you and saying they're worried about? [58:36] >> Yeah. So, like people definitely worried [58:38] that we're going to just have oil prices [58:41] continuing to go up, right? They gone up [58:42] in the last last couple weeks [58:44] substantially, but we could go up more. [58:46] Like there's not really any solution [58:47] around the corner. So, continued rises [58:49] there. That's number one. Uh well, no, I [58:53] don't think there not ranking them. So, [58:55] I say the bond the bond market [58:57] >> you're hearing that you're hearing that [58:58] from a lot of your clients. [58:59] >> Yeah. like we we have trading clients [59:00] all around the world clearly that's [59:02] hyperfocus on the um on the oil price [59:04] now. Uh the long end is is really [59:07] concerning people and concerning equity [59:09] investors. [59:10] >> You think it's concerning equity [59:12] investors? [59:12] >> Yeah, I think it is. I think it's making [59:14] people nervous that there's this [59:16] nonlinearity when the long end moves [59:18] quickly you know 20 30 35 basis point we [59:22] gets into danger territory. So we're [59:24] very close to that danger territory. Uh [59:26] so that's that's the second one. Uh and [59:30] then I would say people are also worried [59:32] that okay like is this election going to [59:35] go okay? We're getting a lot of [59:36] questions. Is the election going to be [59:38] all right? Like is it going to [59:39] >> like the sanctity of the election? [59:41] >> There's that and then um [59:43] >> assume those it's also it's also a long [59:45] time since we've had a dem sweep. So [59:48] there's some investors that are [59:50] concerned about is that going to move [59:52] markets too? [59:52] >> Yes. Does all these worries make you [59:54] worried or do you take a little bit of [59:56] comfort in the fact that there's so much [59:57] worrying that the market does it for [59:58] you? [59:59] >> No, I think I I do I don't think I've [60:02] been like a debt scare monker my whole [60:05] career, but I do think at some point you [60:08] have to take it seriously and I think [60:10] we're starting to sniff that it it's [60:13] starting to impact the asset allocation. [60:15] Right. So what matters is when investors [60:17] respond to it and I think we can start [60:18] to sniff Don't you think there's enough [60:20] demand that a 10year above 5% gets [60:23] aggressively bought by allocators who [60:25] have been waiting for something like [60:27] this or or we might find out the emperor [60:30] has no clothes and there are no buyers? [60:32] >> Yeah, I would I would say the fact that [60:34] we have to eat the bonds both from the [60:37] US Treasury and the hypers scales at the [60:38] same time is is a bit gamechanging. [60:40] >> Okay. [60:41] >> So I think that makes it harder to say [60:43] okay what kind of level is it? So why [60:45] why isn't Bessen saying that? [60:48] >> Yeah. Is the White House going to say to [60:49] the hyperscalers, "Hey, no [60:51] more. [60:52] >> Calm calm down." [60:54] >> But that this is has to do with the [60:55] conflicting objectives. They want the AI [60:58] sector and the US to be strong. They [61:00] want them to come and rescue the growth [61:02] of of the US economy like and it is a [61:04] big source of growth now. Probably part [61:07] part of the reason why we have [61:08] resilience is that that growth is there. [61:10] So they don't want to hamper that. So [61:13] they that's why they're doing these [61:14] buybacks, right? To make sure it doesn't [61:16] go off the rails too quickly. But I do [61:19] think getting heading into next year, [61:20] it's going to be a problem. It could be [61:22] a massive problem for housing markets. [61:24] And so like what if we have mortgage [61:25] rates that are 8%, right? [61:27] >> What's the difference? [61:28] >> Don't forget market's already out of [61:31] it's already out of business. [61:31] >> But don't forget that a lot of people [61:33] have mortgages that are three and 4%. [61:35] that eventually have to roll. And uh [61:39] it's almost like um because there was so [61:42] much QE and so forth when we locked in [61:45] those mortgage rates, we have the [61:47] hangover of those mortgages resetting to [61:50] a higher level with a huge lag. So there [61:53] are going to be housing sector issues [61:56] that are going to be exacerbated. [61:57] >> But on that point, isn't there was so [61:59] much financial suppression in the last [62:00] couple of decades that was pissing [62:02] everybody off. The same people that are [62:04] pissed off now about government spending [62:06] were I rate about how much interference [62:09] the Fed and the Treasury were having [62:10] with the bond market. I'm not saying [62:12] that this is awesome and it's all roses [62:15] and sunshine, but this is a lot more of [62:18] a normal yield curve in a healthy [62:19] economy in a growing economy. This looks [62:22] a lot more normal than that did. [62:24] Well, if you look if you look at [62:26] historically it's certainly more normal [62:27] to have a four 5% bond yield than having [62:30] one or whatever we have [62:31] >> trillions of negative rates that was [62:33] abnormal. [62:33] >> Yeah, agreed. And uh you can also see it [62:36] like in in in in Europe, right? We we [62:39] now have um yields that are more normal [62:42] in Europe ECB high rates today, right? [62:44] And banks are making money, right? So [62:46] it's very hard for banks to exist and [62:48] make money. We've seen in Japan as well [62:49] if there at all. Yeah. So um so in a way [62:54] it is a more normal situation we're in. [62:58] Uh the problem is that if this [63:00] hyperscala issuance continues to [63:02] accelerate then we might get another [63:04] percent or another percent on top of [63:06] what we've already seen and then there's [63:08] probably some nonarius is kicking in. It [63:09] would be it would be very ironic and [63:12] interesting if the bull market for [63:14] stocks comes to an end because the [63:17] hyperscalers [63:18] went from being like the biggest cash [63:21] generating companies in history [63:23] >> to being the largest debtor companies in [63:25] history and they did it on purpose to [63:27] themselves [63:28] >> 100%. [63:28] >> It would be very poetic if if we say the [63:30] market topped when finally Yeah. I don't [63:34] know if we thought that [63:35] >> the market topped when finally like [63:39] somebody said no to Amazon in the bond [63:40] market. [63:41] >> Yeah, [63:41] >> that would be sort of a poetic end. [63:43] >> That would be the signal. [63:44] >> Yeah. [63:44] >> So, [63:45] >> we're not rooting for it. Just just [63:47] pointing out that [63:47] >> I think that's something to think pretty [63:49] hard about because if you look at the [63:50] flows, that's the direction we're going. [63:52] >> Okay, last question. Um, what's the most [63:55] interesting trade right now going into [63:58] 2027? maybe something that you're [64:00] hearing people putting on themselves or [64:02] something that you're thinking about. [64:04] What What's something that no one's [64:05] thinking about that actually might be a [64:07] good trade? [64:08] >> Well, I I I think um one of the most [64:11] important and and pronounced macro [64:14] trends is playing out in Korea. I think [64:18] I think that trade can continue to go in [64:20] a mass [64:20] >> equity market in Korea or or you want to [64:22] see the one [64:23] >> both. both. I think it's just such an [64:26] extraordinary situation that it's [64:27] probably the biggest, [64:29] >> you know, macro country shock I've seen [64:31] almost. [64:32] >> How do I buy how do I buy that? At the [64:33] mall, can I buy Korean like mid mid and [64:37] large caps that are going to benefit [64:38] from a richer consumer or do I have to [64:41] buy these memory stocks? [64:42] >> I think you can do both because it's [64:44] like like [64:45] >> the workers are getting paid, [64:47] >> right? [64:47] >> The dividends are coming out, the growth [64:49] is going to be there, they're going to [64:51] invest. is like on all cylinders, [64:53] >> dude. We're going to JFK on Sunday. [64:55] Let's buy uh we'll buy the wine at the [64:56] airport. [64:58] >> Good call. We could do that. All right. [64:59] Yeah. Did you have fun on the show [65:00] today? [65:01] >> Yeah, absolutely. [65:02] >> All right. Well, we were super excited [65:03] to have you back as always. We've [65:05] learned a lot from talking with you. I [65:07] want to tell people where they can learn [65:08] more about the work that you're doing at [65:10] Vanda. I know the company officially [65:12] changes over in October. Is that right? [65:14] So, we call it Vanda Macro Research. So [65:18] yeah, we we we have the the the Vander [65:20] macro data and we have the what we call [65:22] Vanda macro intelligence which is the [65:25] all the insights on top of stuff. Yeah. [65:28] So vander.com is the domain now and you [65:30] can uh you can find me on on Twitter X [65:33] if you if you want to do that. That's [65:34] Jay Nordwick. That hasn't changed. All [65:36] right. Awesome guys. F follow Yens for [65:39] sure. Check out Banda of course. Thank [65:41] you so much for coming. We appreciate [65:43] you. [65:45] John, what do you think? Good. Daniel, [65:48] good job. All right, guys. Thank you so [65:50] much for watching. Thanks for listening. [65:52] Back with you very soon. We're out.