Mideast War Threatens Petrodollar and Global Tech Chains, Jiang Warns
The Diary Of A CEO
Disruptions to Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints will dismantle the petrodollar recycling architecture, forcing nations into autarky and reversing global technological progress.
## Background
Published on YouTube by The Diary Of A CEO on September 14, 2026, this interview features geopolitical analyst Professor Jiang Xueqin discussing the impending unraveling of the American-led global order. The episode description frames the discussion around historical cycles, warning that supply chain disruptions, resource scarcity, and petrodollar instability could trigger a modern Late Bronze Age collapse accompanied by devastating financial cyber warfare.
## TL;DR
Professor Jiang Xueqin posits that modern technological progress depends on hyper-specialization and globalization, an architecture anchored by U.S. naval hegemony and petrodollar recycling that is now fracturing. Drawing parallels to the ancient Late Bronze Age collapse, he forecasts that maritime trade chokepoints disrupted by Iran and regional proxies will force global powers into autarky, reversing industrial complexity and triggering mass migration. Along with high-stakes forecasts—including an asymmetric 'financial 9/11' wiping out electronic banking records, a third presidential term for Donald Trump leading to urban blockades, and escalating East Asian naval rivalry between China and Japan—Jiang asserts that supply chain disintegration will prevent true AGI from emerging, transforming AI into a domestic surveillance mechanism. In the face of systemic geopolitical regression, he urges ordinary citizens to detach from materialism and anchor their lives in family, moral courage, and faith.
## Atmosphere & style
The dialogue maintains an eerie, cerebral calm as Jiang delivers apocalyptic civilizational forecasts with unflinching, matter-of-fact fatalism rooted in historical cycles and game theory. Steven Bartlett provides an inquisitive and occasionally incredulous counterbalance, pushing Jiang on extreme assertions with pragmatic wagers and grounding questions. Despite the grim catalog of proxy wars, urban sieges, and technological collapse, the atmosphere softens dramatically toward the conclusion into an intimate, vulnerable reflection on fatherhood, spiritual resilience, and overcoming personal fear.
## Key takeaways
- [05:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=311s) Technological progress is governed by specialization multiplied by globalization; fracturing global supply chains forces nations into autarky, mathematically stalling and reversing technological advancement.
- [10:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=626s) The modern crisis mirrors the Late Bronze Age Collapse (c. 1200 BCE), where disruptions to distant mineral trade routes, combined with climate shocks and mass migration, dismantled interconnected civilizations within decades.
- [19:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1185s) The petrodollar system and New York's financial primacy rely entirely on Middle Eastern oil transit; severing maritime corridors through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea threatens to collapse the US debt recycling loop.
- [32:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1920s) Neither China nor the West can produce advanced semiconductors independently due to asymmetric chokepoints, including China's control of silicon and gallium versus Western dominance in helium and ultra-high-purity quartz.
- [33:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2015s) Depleting freshwater reserves will surpass oil as the primary geopolitical flashpoint over the next two decades, while northern control of synthetic fertilizer leaves the Global South vulnerable to widespread famine.
- [38:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2321s) Right-wing populist surges in the West stem from immigration pressures, while the promise of robotic automation remains an illusion constrained by fragile raw material supply chains, keeping human labor more expendable than technology.
- [41:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2494s) Coordinated asymmetric strikes by Iran and regional proxy networks around critical maritime bottlenecks exploit the 'madman theory' to destroy cargo insurance underwriting and halt commercial sea trade.
- [44:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2658s) Imperial leaders trapped by hubris systematically discard empathy and imagination, normalizing catastrophic civilian infrastructure destruction and mass casualties to prevent perceived retreats.
- [49:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2986s) Jiang predicts Donald Trump will pursue a third presidential term by bypassing constitutional limits through emergency executive decrees or vice-presidential maneuvers, prompting severe standoffs and sieges around resistant metropolitan hubs.
- [57:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3464s) The next catastrophic terrorist attack will likely avoid physical architecture and instead target digital financial infrastructure and banking servers, wiping out personal account balances overnight.
- [01:12:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4356s) East Asia's fundamental fault line is between continental China and resource-dependent Japan, whose demographic decline leaves zero margin to absorb disruptions to South China Sea maritime trade routes.
- [01:21:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4892s) Faced with a prolonged war of attrition against Ukraine's Western-backed industrial supply chain, Moscow is incentivized to target defense manufacturing hubs inside European NATO nations.
- [01:31:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5489s) The abandonment of Clinton-era commercial pacification in favor of the 1996 neoconservative 'Clean Break' doctrine locked the Middle East into a doctrine of preemptive offensive strikes and regional instability.
- [01:40:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=6040s) Broken global supply chains will prevent the hardware scaling required for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), leaving AI technology primarily repurposed into centralized state surveillance grids.
- [01:35:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5749s) In the face of systemic geopolitical collapse and hyper-rational nihilism, personal endurance and resilience depend on accepting struggle, cultivating faith in God, and prioritizing human empathy.
## Detailed walkthrough
### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=0s) Teaser Predictions: A Financial 9/11, Messi, and a New York Siege
Professor Jiang Xueqin opens by acknowledging that he has become one of the most polarizing figures in the world because his forecasts make people deeply uncomfortable. Rather than trying to comfort his audience, he insists his mission is to prepare them for what he views as an inevitable reality: the collapse of modern civilization. Grounding his analysis in historical cycles, game theory, and supply chain mechanics, Jiang introduces a series of dramatic predictions framed around the concept of a modern "9/11":
* **Prediction 1: A Financial 9/11.** Jiang warns that the next catastrophic attack against the United States will not target physical skyscrapers, but its digital banking and financial data infrastructure. He envisions an ordinary morning where millions open their smartphones to purchase a coffee, only to discover their bank accounts wiped clean with no clear timeline for recovery—striking directly at the core vulnerability and psychological comfort of the American public.
* **Prediction 2: Lionel Messi as President.** In an unexpected geopolitical forecast, Jiang predicts that football icon Lionel Messi will eventually be elected President of Argentina.
* **Prediction 3: A Third Term for Donald Trump and a Siege of New York City.** Jiang wagers a friendly $100 bet that Donald Trump will secure a third presidential term, setting off extreme political friction that will culminate in a literal siege of New York City.
Addressing host Steven Bartlett's skepticism about such extreme pessimism, Jiang affirms that the world has already reached the absolute summit of its technological advancement. We are now entering an era defined not merely by localized warfare, but by structural civilizational regression. Steven pauses before the formal discussion to note his channel's subscriber analytics, urging viewers to hit subscribe to lower the unsubscribed viewer ratio from 58% down to 50% so the show can continue funding high-level guests and production.
---
[02:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=129s) The Petrodollar Engine: How the US Dollar Captured the World
Setting the historical foundation, Jiang explains that understanding the modern collapse requires understanding how the post-World War II global economic architecture was constructed. In 1945, the United States emerged as the undisputed economic powerhouse, manufacturing physical goods to reconstruct a devastated Europe and Japan. Under the original Bretton Woods arrangement, the U.S. lent dollars to these rebuilding nations to purchase American exports, with the explicit guarantee that those debts were redeemable in physical gold. Over the subsequent decades, American domestic and military overspending eroded this advantage, transforming the country from the world's preeminent creditor into a massive debtor.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: The Post-WWII Petrodollar Architecture
accDescr: Diagram showing how the 1971 Nixon Shock led to the petrodollar, Chinese manufacturing, and Japanese treasury purchases.
subgraph Shock["1971 Unpegging"]
US["Nixon Shock<br/>Dollar unpegged from Gold"]
end
subgraph Pillars["The Three Demand Pillars"]
Saudi["Middle East / Saudi Arabia<br/>Oil priced exclusively in USD"]
China["China (Late 70s/80s)<br/>Cheap goods sold for USD"]
Japan["Plaza Accord (Mid-80s)<br/>Surpluses invested in US Treasuries"]
end
US --> Saudi
US --> China
US --> Japan
```
This structural imbalance culminated in the 1971 Nixon Shock, when President Richard Nixon unilaterally severed the dollar's convertibility into gold. Stripped of bullion backing, the U.S. had to engineer synthetic global demand for its currency to preserve its purchasing power. Jiang maps the three agreements that sustained the dollar:
* **The Petrodollar (1970s):** Saudi Arabia and Middle Eastern producers agreed to price and settle all petroleum exports exclusively in U.S. dollars, guaranteeing that every energy-importing nation had to acquire dollar reserves.
* **Chinese Manufacturing (Late 1970s / Early 1980s):** China opened its economy, agreeing to sell its vast output of low-cost manufactured goods in exchange for U.S. dollars.
* **The Plaza Accord (Mid-1980s):** Japan committed to recycling its massive trade surpluses directly back into U.S. sovereign debt by purchasing U.S. Treasuries.
Jiang emphasizes that the entire global apparatus is ultimately a web of reciprocal contracts: the dollar is a legal promise, backed in practice by Saudi oil reserves, Japanese financial surplus, and Chinese factory labor.
---
[05:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=311s) The Innovation Formula and the Semiconductor Web
Jiang illustrates the fragility of this globalized order using the modern semiconductor—the physical component underpinning all contemporary computing, precision weaponry, and satellite communications. A cutting-edge microchip relies on a delicate balance of rare inputs, most notably silicon, gallium, and germanium. The geographic distribution of these critical raw materials is heavily skewed: China produces 60% to 70% of the world's silicon, 70% of its gallium, and roughly 90% of its germanium.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Global Semiconductor Supply Chain Interdependence
accDescr: Flowchart illustrating the international division of labor required to produce advanced microchips.
Producing a functional chip requires an international assembly line with zero tolerance for disruption. American firms in California (such as Apple and Nvidia) design the complex microarchitecture; Dutch manufacturer ASML builds extreme ultraviolet lithography machines valued at upwards of $400 million each alongside Japanese equipment makers; advanced fabrication plants in Taiwan and Malaysia print and etch the physical silicon wafers; and the finished semiconductors are finally routed into China for assembly into consumer appliances, phones, and industrial hardware.
Jiang summarizes the engine of modern wealth with a core formula:
Under this framework, high technology is only possible when individual nations dedicate their economies to hyper-specific tasks and trade freely across open oceans. Crucially, that trade has historically relied on two pillars: settlement in the U.S. dollar and protection from the United States Navy exercising uncontested military hegemony across global shipping lanes.
---
[08:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=515s) The Reversal: Autarky, the Iran Catalyst, and Civilizational Regression
Because technological progress is the product of specialization multiplied by globalization, any systemic breakdown in either variable forces technology to regress. Jiang asserts that humanity has already reached the absolute zenith of its technological capabilities. The world cannot advance further because escalating geopolitical conflict—most acutely the widening confrontation involving Iran—is actively dismantling the trade routes and political alignments that made deep specialization viable.
Faced with blockaded maritime chokepoints and weaponized sanctions, nations can no longer afford to specialize. Instead, governments are forced to become generalists, building redundant, nationalized, and autarkic supply chains within their own borders. As globalization fractures into regionalism and specialization degrades, the mathematical outcome is unavoidable: the rate of technological progress will not merely plateau, but collapse.
When Steven questions whether "collapse" is too sensational an assessment, Jiang stands firm. He rejects the idea that our era is a conventional transition of power like World War II, insisting that the next twenty years will witness a fundamental unraveling of civilization itself.
---
[10:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=626s) Beyond World War II: Why This Mirrors the Bronze Age Collapse
Steven presses Jiang to define what a "collapse of civilization" actually entails, noting that most people think of higher consumer prices, a weakening U.S. dollar, or slower technological rollout. Jiang responds by contrasting the present era with the aftermath of World War II. While World War II was cataclysmic—killing tens of millions of people across Europe and Asia—it coincided with the rise of an undisputed, hyper-productive superpower. The United States possessed the capital, manufacturing capacity, and naval dominance needed to step into the void, underwrite international security, and establish the Pax Americana order.
Today, Pax Americana is exhausted and unraveling. When analysts suggest that another power, such as China, Russia, or regional players, will simply step forward to replace the United States as the global guarantor, Jiang cautions that declining empires never retreat peacefully, nor does a fragmented world easily permit a single successor.
Instead of World War II, Jiang points to the Late Bronze Age Collapse (around 1200 BCE) as the true historical parallel. Just like modern society, the ancient Mediterranean was a deeply integrated, highly specialized globalized network. Creating bronze required alloying copper (often from Cyprus) with tin (mined as far away as Afghanistan or Cornwall). When maritime insecurity, regional conflicts, and systemic disruptions severed those fragile trading corridors, the entire interconnected civilizational network collapsed simultaneously into a centuries-long dark age.
[11:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=707s) The Bronze Age Collapse as a Blueprint for Modern Catastrophe
Professor Jiang Xueqin draws a direct historical parallel between our modern interconnected world and the Late Bronze Age collapse. In antiquity, the manufacture of bronze required combining copper and tin, resources scattered in distant regions across the ancient world, which necessitated an early form of deep global economic integration. Over time, however, that very interdependence generated severe wealth inequality, unsustainable debt, and intense political polarization. When the fragile equilibrium broke, the entire system went down together. Jiang explains that a perfect storm of compounding crises sparked this systemic unraveling: shifting weather patterns brought severe climate change and famine to Europe, driving starving populations to migrate in waves toward fertile regions with food reserves—primarily Anatolia and Egypt.
Known to history as the "Sea Peoples," these armed migrant waves overwhelmed existing administrative systems, shattering traditional hierarchies and wiping out state authority. The cascading contagion destroyed the fundamental pillars of civilized life. Jiang warns that this ancient catastrophe provides a terrifyingly accurate template for our contemporary moment. Today, the world faces an expanding Middle Eastern war that threatens to drag in regional powers and dismantle the delicate global supply chains holding modern society together.
- **The Bronze Age Parallel:** Deep specialization and trade required distant metals (copper and tin) to meet, creating wealth alongside deep-seated inequality, debt, and political polarization.
- **The Domino Effect:** European famine triggered mass migrations (the Sea Peoples) into Anatolia and Egypt, overwhelming complex administrative structures and eradicating urban civilization.
- **Modern Convergence:** Expanding regional conflict threatens contemporary global shipping lanes and resource hubs in an identical systemic cascade.
---
[14:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=842s) Who Are the Houthis—and Why Do They Matter?
Turning to the immediate crisis in the Middle East, Jiang highlights how Iran’s allied proxy factions have fully entered the war, beginning with the Houthis in Yemen. He clarifies that the Houthis are not merely a ragtag militia, but an indigenous tribal ethnic movement rooted in Yemen's rugged highlands. Their mountainous geography makes them virtually impossible to dislodge militarily, a reality demonstrated when Saudi Arabia waged an intensive five-year military campaign against them that ultimately failed to break their control.
Furthermore, the Houthis belong to the Shia branch of Islam. While Sunni Muslims make up roughly 90% of the global Muslim population, the Shia constitute only about 10%. Jiang points out that historically, this minority status has fostered a theological doctrine deeply rooted in martyrdom: the Houthis fight with absolute religious devotion and do not fear death. Geographically, they control the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea. With Iran having closed the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s maritime routes through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea are compromised, leaving the kingdom unable to safely and cheaply ship crude oil to its core markets in East and South Asia. Alongside the Houthis, Iran’s regional network includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and powerful Shia militias operating as quasi-independent militaries across Iraq, forming an expansive hostile axis stretching across the Middle East.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: The Shia Axis of Resistance
accDescr: Diagram showing the operational coordination between the IRGC and its regional proxies controlling strategic choke points.
subgraph Tehran["Strategic Command"]
IRGC["Iran / IRGC<br/>Command & Ballistic Hub"]
end
[16:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1001s) Why This Conflict Is Fundamentally Different From the Iraq War
Steven Bartlett questions how this unfolding confrontation differs from the chronic Middle Eastern wars of recent decades, recalling his childhood perception of endless regional clashes—from the 2003 invasion of Iraq to the campaign that decapitated ISIS. Jiang responds that the current dynamic is entirely different from 2003. When the United States invaded Iraq, it targeted Saddam Hussein’s centralized, deeply unpopular regime, a conventional adversary easily overwhelmed by American "shock and awe" firepower. Today's conflict, by contrast, pits Western forces against four decentralized, ideologically fervent actors: the IRGC in Iran, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iraqi Shia militias. United by a shared eschatology and asymmetric doctrine, these decentralized factions exploit the exact vulnerability the Pentagon has consistently failed to overcome: counterinsurgency against guerrilla fighters, as demonstrated by the trillions squandered across twenty-year forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Because these factions act in concert without relying on a single command bottleneck, the war will naturally metastasize. Facing an existential threat on its southern border, Saudi Arabia recently brokered the Mecca Accords—a mutual defense agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. Jiang predicts Riyadh will inevitably invoke this pact to solicit Pakistani and Turkish military intervention against Yemen. Yet even external armies cannot overcome the Houthis' natural mountain redoubts. In retaliation, armed with sophisticated drones and ballistic missiles, the Houthis hold the power to strike Saudi Arabia’s oil processing hubs, turning the kingdom into "a giant lake of gasoline ready to be blown up."
- **Centralized vs. Asymmetric Warfare:** The 2003 Iraq campaign targeted a fragile, centralized regime; today's adversaries are decentralized, ideologically unified insurgencies immune to conventional shock-and-awe tactics.
- **The Asymmetric Trap:** The U.S. military has repeatedly proven incapable of defeating entrenched guerrilla networks over decades of costly "forever wars."
- **The Mecca Accords:** A mutual defense treaty between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan designed to counter regional threats, likely to be triggered by escalating Houthi strikes.
- **Vulnerability of Oil Assets:** Houthi ballistic missiles and drone arsenals leave Saudi energy infrastructure dangerously exposed to devastating retaliatory sabotage.
---
[19:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1185s) Great Power Backing and the Collapse of the Petrodollar Engine
Addressing Steven's comparison to historical terror groups like al-Qaeda, Jiang explains that previous Sunni militant factions operated in operational isolation. In contrast, the Shia proxies coordinate directly under the command structure of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), bolstered by decisive backing from major global powers. China supplies crucial economic and material lifelines through its Belt and Road Initiative transit corridors, while Russia funnels strategic resources south across the Caspian Sea, giving Tehran the structural resilience to wage an attritional conflict indefinitely.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: The Petrodollar Recycling and Supply Loop
accDescr: Flowchart illustrating how Middle Eastern energy fuels Asian manufacturing, generating dollars that fund U.S. debt and technological innovation.
subgraph Energy["Energy Production"]
ME["GCC / Middle East<br/>Crude Oil Reserves"]
end
subgraph Industry["Asian Manufacturing"]
ASIA["East Asia: Japan & China<br/>Electronics & Consumer Goods"]
end
subgraph Finance["U.S. Capital Markets"]
UST["U.S. Treasuries & Wall St.<br/>Financing Tech & AI Bubble"]
end
ME -->|"Crude Exports"| ASIA
ASIA -->|"Export Goods for USD"| Finance
Finance -->|"Recycled Capital"| ME
UST -.->|"Choke Point Closure"| BREAK["Systemic Liquidity Collapse"]
```
Moving figurines across a map to illustrate the global gears of trade, Jiang shows how Middle Eastern energy powers the entire petrodollar paradigm. Tankers from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) supply crude to the manufacturing engines of India, Pakistan, China, and Japan. Nations like Japan transform raw energy into sophisticated consumer electronics and machinery, pricing exports in U.S. dollars. The surplus savings generated across China, Japan, and the GCC are recycled directly back into U.S. Treasuries and Wall Street securities. This continuous river of subsidized capital enables American high-tech innovation, sustains New York City as the world's financial core, and underwrites the current artificial intelligence boom. The entire structure relies unconditionally on open sea lanes. If Iranian and Houthi choke points sever the flow of oil, East Asian manufacturing will seize up, petrodollar recycling will evaporate, and the foreign demand sustaining U.S. sovereign debt will vanish—triggering a cascading systemic collapse in matter of months.
- **Sino-Russian Backing:** China's Belt and Road Initiative overland networks and Russia's Caspian Sea corridor provide Iran with a durable logistical rear guard.
- **Petrodollar Triad:** Japan, China, and the GCC represent the world's three largest financiers of American deficits, propping up U.S. sovereign debt and capital markets.
- **Vulnerability of the AI Boom:** Tech innovation and equity valuations are structurally dependent on foreign central bank purchases of U.S. Treasuries fueled by recycled trade surpluses.
---
[23:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1389s) Historical Amnesia and the Fragility of Modern Civilization
Steven admits that from the perspective of an ordinary 34-year-old living in the modern West, the idea that global civilization could abruptly implode sounds almost impossible to comprehend. He looks up the historical record of the Late Bronze Age collapse between roughly 1200 and 1150 BCE, reading the historical summary aloud: prior to the catastrophe, the Eastern Mediterranean was an intensely globalized web of rival superpowers—including the New Kingdom of Egypt, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, and the Babylonians—bound together by diplomatic alliances, royal marriages, and complex international trade routes.
Yet within a brief window of only fifty years, that sophisticated world unraveled completely. Virtually every major urban center and palace complex in the Eastern Mediterranean was violently sacked, burned, and abandoned, with many never being rebuilt. Displaying a historical map illustrating the widespread destruction of these ancient metropolises, Steven wrestles with the stark psychological disconnect between the enduring sense of modern stability and the brutal speed with which seemingly invincible civilizations can vanish into history.
[24:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1452s) The Illusion of Safety in the West
Steven Bartlett observes that younger generations in the West—specifically Millennials and Gen Z—have lived a remarkably "charmed life." Unlike their parents or grandparents, who lived through or directly inherited the trauma of World War II in the 1940s, younger Westerners lack any living reference point for societal collapse, making warnings of civil breakdown feel completely foreign and unthinkable. Professor Jiang Xueqin agrees, arguing that the entire post-war global architecture was deliberately engineered to preserve and insulate the privileges of Western populations while offloading catastrophic instability onto everyone else.
Jiang contrasts this domestic comfort with the lived experience of citizens in Iraq, Afghanistan, and large parts of Africa, who have never known a single day of peace, stability, or prosperity. In these regions, the United States invaded and tore apart basic societal infrastructure, leaving nations engulfed in endless cycles of political violence, assassinations, and war. The American empire functioned as an elaborate buffer keeping tragedy safely sequestered on foreign soil, but Jiang warns that this imperial structure is now actively unraveling. The political polarization, chaos, and violence once viewed through television screens are heading straight toward Western homes.
- Western Millennials and Gen Z have lived without a domestic historical reference point for societal collapse since the World War II generation.
- The U.S. empire insulated domestic populations from the devastation experienced by nations like Iraq and Afghanistan following U.S. military interventions.
- As the structural integrity of the American empire fractures, Jiang warns that domestic immunity to political violence and chaos is evaporating.
---
[26:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1593s) Is War Coming to American Shores?
When Steven Bartlett asks directly whether war is truly coming to Western shores—noting that the post-nuclear era has paradoxically kept direct conflicts between superpowers at bay—Jiang moves to the studio screen to lay out visual maps detailing global supply chains. Steven pauses to ask whether Jiang has always held such a pessimistic outlook on the world, or when exactly his worldview darkened.
Jiang explains that his pessimism was triggered in 2016 by two seismic geopolitical shocks: the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom and the election of Donald Trump in the United States. Up until that point, Jiang had viewed the modern world as a near-perfect, rational meritocracy. Born into deep poverty as the child of an immigrant father who worked as a dishwasher for thirty years, Jiang grew up in a household that could never afford a car or a family vacation. Despite these humble beginnings, Jiang worked hard and earned a full scholarship to Yale University, reinforcing his conviction that the world was strictly governed by logic, science, truth, and decent individuals.
The dual shocks of 2016 shattered that worldview. In Jiang's eyes, Brexit signified the British public explicitly turning its back on globalization, while Trump's election marked the American electorate's decisive rejection of meritocracy, reason, and social order. Traumatized by this realization, he went back to the drawing board to study historical cycles and societal principles. This led directly to his core analytical formula: technological innovation is the direct product of specialization multiplied by globalization ($\text{Innovation} = \text{Specialization} \times \text{Globalization}$). If global trade and specialization collapse in a major conflict, technological progress and modern civilization will inevitably collapse with them.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: The Innovation Equation Under Geopolitical Strain
accDescr: Diagram showing how specialization and globalization produce innovation, and how war dismantles both.
subgraph Engine["The Innovation Engine"]
A["Deep Specialization"]
B["Global Trade & Supply Chains"]
C["High Technology & Modern Order"]
A & B --> C
end
subgraph Breakdown["Imperial Fracture"]
D["War & Geopolitical Conflict"]
E["Supply Chain Severance"]
F["Technological Stagnation & Collapse"]
D --> E --> F
end
C -.->|Vulnerable to| D
```
---
[30:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1800s) Studio Break: Personal Branding and Recovery
During a break in the analysis, Steven shares the personal routines and technological tools he uses to sustain his daily output. He highlights the red-light Bon Charge face mask he wears for 15 to 20 minutes a day to improve collagen production, combat fine lines, and support skin health, noting that leading health practitioners on his podcast consistently affirm red-light therapy's effectiveness.
Steven also discusses the psychological friction and self-doubt that prevent people from building an online audience or posting content. He references his investment in Stan and introduces their AI-powered platform, Stanley, designed to analyze a creator's historical voice and top-performing posts to suggest topics, draft copy, and help users overcome the creative paralysis of starting an audience from scratch.
---
[32:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1920s) Global Supply Chains: The Semiconductor Chokepoints
Returning to the digital screen, Professor Jiang outlines the intricate interdependencies of modern semiconductor manufacturing, dismantling the common Western assumption that nations can easily achieve complete technological self-sufficiency. While media coverage frequently focuses on China controlling roughly 70% of global silicon manufacturing and rare earth element refining, Jiang notes that this leverage is fundamentally reciprocal.
China remains critically dependent on Western imports—most notably helium, which is indispensable as a cooling agent during chip fabrication. Conversely, the United States holds a virtual stranglehold on high-purity quartz. Jiang points to Spruce Pine, North Carolina, a small Appalachian town that commands roughly 90% of the world's supply of ultra-high-purity quartz, an essential component for the crucibles used to melt and manufacture semiconductor silicon. If international trade is severed, neither side can manufacture advanced microchips independently, immediately bringing technological progress to a standstill.
- China dominates roughly 70% of global silicon manufacturing and rare earth element processing.
- Advanced chip manufacturing in China depends on imports of helium for critical cooling stages.
- Spruce Pine, North Carolina, accounts for approximately 90% of the global supply of ultra-high-purity quartz required for silicon crucibles.
---
[33:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2015s) The North-South Food Divide and Looming Water Wars
Jiang expands his supply-chain breakdown from microchips to global agriculture, highlighting a stark imbalance between the Global North and the Global South. Industrial agriculture relies heavily on ammonia-based fertilizers, and the vast majority of ammonia production facilities are concentrated in the northern hemisphere across Canada, the United States, Europe, Russia, and China. In contrast, regions across the Global South—primarily South America, Africa, and parts of the Middle East—rely heavily on importing these northern fertilizers to feed their populations.
In the event of systemic supply-chain failures triggered by war, the fallout will be profoundly unequal: while the Global North might suffer inconveniences such as losing access to the latest wireless smartphones, the Global South will plunge directly into widespread famine. Compounding this agricultural vulnerability is an accelerating crisis of water scarcity, which Jiang identifies as the primary geopolitical flashpoint over the next two decades, eclipsing oil. Pointing to a hydrological stress map, he emphasizes that the areas highlighted in red indicate where future wars will ignite. This crisis is not confined to developing nations; even the American West—encompassing California, Colorado, and Arizona—is already locked in fierce regional battles over the depleted Colorado River basin.
| Region | Primary Asset / Vulnerability | Geopolitical Consequence in Conflict |
|:--- |:--- |:--- |
| **Global North** (U.S., Canada, Europe, Russia, China) | Controls major ammonia fertilizer plants and high-purity quartz (Spruce Pine) | Supply chain collapse cuts off high-tech hardware and commercial imports |
| **Global South** (Africa, Middle East, South America) | Import-reliant on foreign fertilizer; acute hydrological stress | Global supply disruption leads directly to agricultural collapse and mass famine |
| **American West** (Colorado, California, Arizona) | Highly stressed Colorado River water resources | Inter-state competition and domestic resource shortages |
[35:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2144s) Geopolitical Flashpoints and Demographic Inversion
The geopolitical landscape resembles "dynamite ready to explode," with regional frictions poised to trigger compounding global consequences. India's severe water shortages already put it on a collision course with China, while Northeast Asia remains volatile with tensions surrounding Japan and North Korea. These regional hotspots represent the areas most susceptible to war and political violence over the next two decades. Once conflict erupts in these zones, third-order effects ripple outward and destabilize the international order.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Demographic Divergence and Migration Pressure
accDescr: Map showing how high fertility and geopolitical stress in the Global South drive migration toward aging Western nations.
subgraph South ["Global South: Crisis & High Fertility"]
A["High Birth Rates<br/>(Africa & Middle East)"]
B["Geopolitical Conflict &<br/>Resource Scarcity"]
A --> C["Mass Youth Displacement"]
B --> C
end
subgraph West ["Developed West: Demographic Decline"]
D["Aging Populations<br/>(Europe, Japan, N. America)"]
E["Labor Shortages in<br/>Care & Essential Services"]
D --> E
end
C -->|"Inevitable Migration"| F["Border Friction & Social Polarization"]
E -->|"Economic Need for Cheap Labor"| F
F --> G["Civil Conflict, Political Violence & Revolution"]
```
This vulnerability is intensified by a demographic divergence across the globe. Fertility maps reveal that Africa and the Middle East hold the world's highest birth rates, with families having the most children per couple. Crucially, these high-fertility regions directly overlap with the most intense geopolitical flashpoints. Lacking domestic economic prospects and caught in conflict, millions of young people will have no alternative but to migrate northward toward Europe.
While European nations might instinctively attempt to "turtle up" by erecting border walls, their own demographic decay prevents complete isolation. Developed economies across Europe, Japan, and North America face rapidly aging populations, generating desperate demand for cheap elder care, nursing, and basic labor. To sustain these aging societies, governments are forced to import foreign labor. This influx inevitably clashes with native populations, escalating domestic frictions toward political violence, potential civil war, or even revolution.
- **Primary Flashpoints:** The Middle East, the Sino-Indian border (driven by water scarcity), and Northeast Asia (encompassing North Korea and Japan).
- **Fertility Divide:** Africa and the Middle East record the highest global fertility rates, concentrated precisely where resource and political instability are highest.
- **The Western Aging Dilemma:** Aging domestic demographics in developed nations create structural dependencies on imported labor that undermine border closure policies.
---
[38:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2321s) The Automation Illusion and the Rise of the Right
Western political landscapes are already reacting to these demographic pressures through a sharp pivot toward right-wing populist parties. Movements such as Reform UK, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), MAGA in the United States, and Vox in Spain have surged by campaigning on strict immigration curbs. On paper, electing anti-immigration governments allows these nations to seal their borders and avoid internal ethnic conflict. However, shutting off migration leaves the underlying labor deficit for aging populations entirely unsolved.
When asked whether robotics and automation could substitute for human workers, Professor Jiang points out that advanced robotics relies completely on globalized supply chains that are currently unraveling. Constructing and powering autonomous systems demands vast quantities of specialized raw materials sourced across great distances:
- **Copper:** Mined primarily in Chile, Peru, China, and Australia.
- **Lithium:** Concentrated far away in South America's "Lithium Triangle."
- **Silicon and Rare Earth Elements:** Predominantly extracted and processed within China.
Because severed trade routes make high-tech alternatives economically unviable, societies inevitably fall back on human labor: "People are much cheaper and much more expendable than robots."
In an ideal Western scenario, the United States would achieve swift regime change in Iran, restoring uninhibited globalization. Middle Eastern oil would once again flow reliably to South and East Asia, manufacturing powerhouses would recycle their earnings back into Western financial markets, and the resulting capital surplus would fund artificial intelligence research all the way to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Yet geopolitical reality is moving in the exact opposite direction.
---
[41:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2494s) The "Madman Strategy" and Disrupting Global Shipping
The standoff surrounding Iran has developed dangerous momentum. From a game-theoretic standpoint, Iran and its regional network occupy decisive maritime choke points across the Middle East:
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Maritime Choke Points and Shipping Collapse
accDescr: Diagram showing how Iranian proxy choke points undermine maritime insurance and freeze global trade.
Proxies -->|"Random Coordinated Attacks"| Chaos["Unpredictability & Escalation"]
Chaos --> Ins["Insurers Withdraw Maritime Coverage"]
Ins --> Trade["Global Shipping Grinds to a Halt"]
Trade --> Petro["Collapse of Petrodollar System"]
```
Because the American empire is sustained by the petrodollar and frictionless global commerce, Iran’s most potent offensive move is to seize the initiative and disrupt international trade entirely. If Iran and its allies launch synchronized, unpredictable strikes simultaneously—the Houthis striking Saudi Arabia, Iraqi militias targeting Israel, Hezbollah threatening the Suez Canal, and Iranian forces harassing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz—the United States lacks the military capacity to protect all theaters at once.
This dynamic operates on the "madman theory." Global commerce depends fundamentally on market confidence, which dictates maritime insurance underwriting. The moment commercial insurers conclude that state and non-state actors are acting unpredictably and that the US Navy has lost command of the seas, they will refuse to insure cargo vessels. Without insurance coverage, commercial shipping halts overnight.
While the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) favors this aggressive gambit, domestic political factions in Tehran fear that paralyzing international transit could unite the global community against Iran. Nevertheless, the conflict's structural trajectory points toward steady escalation.
---
[44:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2658s) Critical Infrastructure Strikes and the Looming Exodus
Should Iran execute its trump card of freezing maritime commerce, the American response would bypass symmetric naval warfare in favor of devastating Iran's domestic civilian infrastructure. Anticipated targets include electrical grids and critical desalination plants. Jiang argues that taking down the power grid in a metropolis like Tehran—a city of roughly 10 million inhabitants—would prove far more destructive than a nuclear strike. Because modern food distribution relies entirely on refrigeration, disabling the electric grid would trigger mass urban starvation within days.
When asked whether the United States would actually unleash such catastrophic harm on innocent civilians, Jiang contends that military leadership will find itself compelled to act under the ruthless logic of imperial preservation:
> "The more power you have, the less imagination, empathy you have... you don't think killing millions of Iranians is too heavy a price. It's all worth it if you can maintain the empire. The hubris leads you to believe that the gods favor you and you ultimately win and triumph in this great struggle."
```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ THE HUBRIS SPIRAL │
│ │
│ [Concentrated Power] ──► [Erosion of Empathy] │
│ ▲ │ │
│ │ ▼ │
│ [Delusion of Inevitable ◄── [Acceptance of Mass │
│ Triumph] Civilian Casualties] │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```
The human fallout would inevitably spill into Europe. Striking Iranian infrastructure, alongside the loss of cheap Middle Eastern energy and agricultural fertilizer across Africa, would trigger mass migration dwarfing the 2014 Syrian and Libyan migrant crises. Millions of starving refugees heading toward European borders would overwhelm the continent's social fabric and institutional capacity. Meanwhile, third-party nations are already feeling the pressure; South Korea, for example, has authorized a naval contingent to assist in securing transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
---
[47:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2856s) What Would Donald Trump Do?
Confronted with the question of what he would do if he were sitting in Donald Trump's seat, Jiang laughs before delivering a stark tactical assessment. If placed in the Oval Office, his move would be to "push all in" and immediately target Iran's primary electrical and power infrastructure.
From a strategic perspective, relying on incremental steps or half-measures in an escalating theater accomplishes nothing; it telegraphs weakness to adversaries, squanders the initiative, and leaves the United States trapped in an attritional crisis it cannot win.
[47:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2876s) The Hubris Trap: Why the U.S. Cannot Back Out of Iran
When considering how an escalating conflict with Iran might unfold under Donald Trump, Professor Jiang Xueqin argues that backing down is psychologically and structurally impossible for American leadership. Withdrawing or showing restraint would merely be perceived as weakness, incentivizing Iran and its regional allies to grow bolder and more provocative. If Trump were in that position, Jiang explains, he would feel compelled to "push all in." When Steven Bartlett challenges this—noting that going all in would theoretically kill millions of Iranians—Jiang points directly to the psychology of immense power: once leaders initiate a conflict, their absolute refusal to accept defeat blinds them to alternative outcomes and strips away their capacity to empathize with the suffering of everyday people.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: The Two Pillars of the Petrodollar System
accDescr: Diagram showing how US military invincibility and the dollar sustain the petrodollar system, and how perceived defeat collapses it.
subgraph Pillars ["Foundational Pillars"]
A["U.S. Dollar as Global Reserve Currency"]
B["Aura of U.S. Military Invincibility"]
end
subgraph System ["Global Hegemony"]
C["The Petrodollar System"]
end
subgraph Threat ["Strategic Dilemma"]
D["Retreat or Concession in Iran"] --> E["Tarnished Image of Military Invincibility"]
E --> F["Systemic Unraveling of Global Preponderance"]
end
A --> C
B --> C
C -.-> D
```
Bartlett wonders why a leader could not simply declare victory unilaterally, staging a high-profile press conference to proclaim that Iran's military and naval bases have been dismantled, its nuclear capabilities neutralized, and the mission accomplished. Jiang dismisses this as an illusion. The entire petrodollar framework rests upon two indispensable pillars: the United States dollar serving as the world’s reserve currency, and the unchallenged "aura of inevitability and invincibility" projected by the American military. The moment American armed forces appear beatable or retreat under pressure, that mystique is shattered, irreparably tarnishing the nation's standing and unraveling the global order.
- The petrodollar relies equally on economic primacy and the perceived invulnerability of American military force.
- Leaders wielding vast geopolitical power suffer from a hubris trap, losing the imagination and empathy required to pursue diplomatic exits.
---
[49:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2986s) Prediction #1: Trump’s Third Term and the Siege of New York City
Using the anniversary of 9/11 as a thematic backdrop, Jiang introduces three provocative, "fun but horrifying" forecasts for the United States. His first prediction envisions an armed siege of New York City stemming from Donald Trump securing an unprecedented third presidential term. Bartlett immediately flags the legal impossibility under the 22nd Amendment—ratified in 1951 in the wake of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s four election victories—which explicitly dictates that no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice.
Jiang outlines two plausible mechanisms by which constitutional term limits could be bypassed:
1. **The Emergency Suspension:** Declaring a catastrophic national emergency and suspending constitutional rules outright. Jiang cites historical precedents where presidents took drastic, extra-constitutional actions during existential crises, such as Abraham Lincoln suspending *habeas corpus* during the American Civil War, or FDR interning Japanese Americans during World War II. Because American governance relies heavily on unwritten norms and conventions rather than enforcement against a determined executive, a president willing to say "screw these conventions" faces little resistance from courts lacking enforcement arms.
2. **The Vice-Presidential Maneuver:** Running in 2028 on a ticket with his son Donald Trump Jr. as the presidential candidate and Donald Trump Sr. as the vice-presidential nominee. Once inaugurated, Trump Jr. would immediately resign, elevating his father back to the presidency—a maneuver not strictly prohibited by the letter of the 22nd Amendment.
Should Trump retain the presidency past 2028, Jiang predicts widespread revolt across liberal metropolitan hubs like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, and New York City. These municipalities would initiate open resistance by refusing to remit federal taxes and expelling federal agents such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This jurisdictional clash between local and federal authorities would compel the White House to deploy military power to put down the rebellion. Jiang forecasts that federal units, supplemented by armed militias mobilized from neighboring red states, would lay siege to New York City by cutting off its municipal water and food pipelines—initiating an urban standoff that could drag on for years.
- **Constitutional precedents cited:** Lincoln’s suspension of *habeas corpus* and FDR’s executive internment orders.
- **Urban siege dynamics:** Severing basic municipal utilities, bridges, and supply logistics to force municipal surrender.
---
[53:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3203s) The $100 White House Bet: January 21, 2029
The prospect of a third Trump term prompts Bartlett to challenge Jiang directly: "Do you think Trump is going to have a third term? Do you want to bet?" Jiang accepts immediately, agreeing to a $100 wager.
The exchange turns humorous as Bartlett recounts a previous encounter on Facebook, where two online QAnon believers insisted that Donald Trump would remain in power following his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. Bartlett wagered £1,000 against each of them; when Trump vacated the White House, both individuals actually paid up, and Bartlett donated the entire $2,000 sum to charity.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: The 2028 Presidential Bet Terms
accDescr: Flowchart defining the precise milestone for the friendly wager between Jiang and Bartlett.
A["Election Day<br>(Nov 4, 2028)"] --> B["Inauguration Day<br>(Jan 20, 2029)"]
B --> C{"Milestone Test<br>(Jan 21, 2029)"}
C -- "Trump in White House" --> D["Jiang Wins ($100)"]
C -- "Trump Vacates Office" --> E["Bartlett Wins ($100)"]
```
To prevent any ambiguity, Bartlett establishes strict terms for their new wager:
- The metric is not whether Trump formally wins the November 4, 2028 election, but whether he manages to remain in the Oval Office.
- The bet resolves on **January 21, 2029**, the day following the scheduled presidential inauguration: if Trump is still occupying the White House, Jiang wins; if Trump has stepped down, Bartlett takes the cash.
- Jiang jokes that by 2029, a hundred-dollar bill "may not be worth anything" due to runaway inflation, but accepts the terms nonetheless.
---
[55:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3300s) Trump’s Bizarre Vitality vs. The Presidential Aging Trap
Bartlett questions how an individual approaching 83 years of age could maintain the physical stamina required to orchestrate a constitutional crisis and manage a civil conflict. Jiang points out that Trump defies conventional expectations regarding physical aging and presidential burnout. Despite consuming a daily diet of fast-food cheeseburgers and spending hours tweeting provocative statements—such as claiming that all of North America belongs to the United States or openly discussing annexing Canada, Greenland, and Cuba—Trump maintains an anomalous reservoir of energy.
Jiang contrasts Trump's physical trajectory with that of Barack Obama:
- In 2008, Obama entered the White House as an exceptionally vibrant, youthful, and handsome leader.
- By the conclusion of his two terms in 2016, the grueling burdens of statecraft had visibly aged him by twenty years, leaving him looking exhausted and gray.
- Trump, by contrast, seems insulated from executive fatigue—a resilience Bartlett jokingly attributes to "hair dye and fake tan."
Jiang attributes Trump's stamina to an insatiable appetite for attention. Washington, D.C. journalists frequently recount that they can dial Trump’s personal cell phone and find the President willing to converse casually for over an hour. Reporters visiting the Oval Office often find it difficult to leave because Trump insists on holding them in conversation, thriving directly on public visibility and constant media engagement.
---
[57:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3464s) Prediction #2: A Financial 9/11 on Data and Infrastructure
Turning to his second forecast, Jiang examines the lingering vulnerability of the American homeland around the anniversary of the September 11 attacks. Hostile global actors seeking retribution against the United States recognize that physical strikes against buildings no longer yield the systemic damage required to paralyze the country. Instead, Jiang predicts that the next major terror attack will target the United States' core financial infrastructure.
Jiang prompts Bartlett to dissect the underlying strategic purpose of the original 9/11 attacks. Rather than being mere acts of physical destruction, they were calculated psychological operations designed to deeply traumatize the American public and provoke the empire into reactionary, self-destructive overseas wars. By turning American civilian aircraft into weapons against monumental symbols of commercial and military power like the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the hijackers triggered two decades of costly, destabilizing military overreach. In a modern context, the true vulnerability of American hegemony lies not in steel skyscrapers, but in the electronic networks and data centers that underpin its banking system and capital markets.
[58:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3535s) The Mechanics of Terror: From 9/11 Trauma to Middle East Forever Wars
Examining the strategic logic behind major acts of terrorism, Professor Jiang revisits the psychological impact of September 11. The attacks deliberately targeted the foundational symbols of American supremacy—the Pentagon, the White House (the intended target of Flight 93), and the Twin Towers. For decades, the American public lived under the conviction of national invincibility, trusting completely in their technological dominance, commercial centers, military fortresses, and aircraft. Watching those monumental structures collapse shattered that illusion in real time, inflicting deep psychological trauma on the entire population.
Jiang argues that the ultimate goal of such an operation is not merely physical destruction, but using trauma to provoke the target nation into self-destructive violence driven by a blind thirst for vengeance. In the aftermath of 9/11, that rage propelled the United States into two decades of catastrophic foreign entanglements: invading Afghanistan to hunt the Taliban, launching the war in Iraq, and subsequently seeing conflict spill over into Syria and Libya. Rather than projecting strength, these twenty years of "forever wars" drained trillions through compounding fiscal deficits, eroded the global prestige and credibility of the U.S. military, and entrenched systemic corruption inside Washington, D.C.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Terror Strategy and Empire Exhaustion
accDescr: Diagram illustrating how asymmetric trauma provokes self-destructive imperial overreach.
subgraph S1["1. Asymmetric Provocation"]
A["Strike Symbolic Vulnerability"] --> B["Deep Societal Trauma & Panic"]
end
subgraph S2["2. Emotional Reaction"]
B --> C["Demand for Vengeance"]
C --> D["Militaristic Retaliation Abroad"]
end
subgraph S3["3. Imperial Exhaustion"]
D --> E["Fiscal Deficits & Debt"]
D --> F["Military Attrition & Loss of Prestige"]
D --> G["Institutional Decay"]
end
```
[01:00:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3625s) Prediction: The Financial 9/11 and the Threat to U.S. Banking Servers
If an adversary or terrorist network seeks to duplicate that paralyzing effect today, repeating the exact methods of 9/11 would fall flat; society has become normalized to spectacle violence and physical attacks on buildings. To induce authentic, nation-stopping trauma today, Jiang posits a chilling thought experiment: an attack directed entirely at domestic financial infrastructure.
He illustrates the scenario on an intensely personal level. Imagine waking up in the morning, taking out your iPhone, and scanning it to buy a simple cup of coffee. The transaction fails. Assuming it is a momentary glitch with your bank, you place a call, only to discover the phone lines are jammed and you cannot get through. After hours of escalating panic, breaking news confirms that a coordinated strike has taken down critical U.S. financial data servers. Account balances have been wiped clean, and officials have no idea if or when digital records can ever be recovered. Jiang emphasizes that this would not merely generate "concern"; it would unleash unbridled fury, chaos, and a "mad frenzy" among citizens who watched their life savings and retirement vanish in a split second. When Steven Bartlett questions whether orchestrating a total blackout of national financial infrastructure is feasible, Jiang counters: "Would you say 9/11 was hard to do?" The sheer asymmetric creativity of such adversaries makes an assault on banking data centers a distinct and terrifying possibility.
[01:03:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3797s) Border Interrogations and the Perils of Polarizing Geopolitical Fame
The conversation shifts to Jiang's personal experiences with state pushback, beginning with his recent border troubles entering the United States. Following his widely viewed predictions regarding the outbreak of the Iran conflict in March, his public profile exploded. Rather than relishing the attention, Jiang admitted he felt terrified that his notoriety would anger American authorities, leading to fears that he might be detained by customs or summarily deported. For months, he turned down dozens of invitations to fly to the U.S. for high-profile interviews.
By summer, as immediate tensions appeared to recede, he traveled to visit family in Toronto and decided to fly out of Toronto Pearson International Airport on August 5 at 7:00 a.m. for an 8:30 a.m. flight to Los Angeles to tape an appearance on the *Theo Von show*. Traveling alongside his eight-year-old son, Chris, Jiang cleared early questions smoothly until the border officer unexpectedly demanded a formal parental travel consent letter. Caught off guard before dawn, Jiang tried phoning his wife, who was in the shower. With minutes ticking down, customs officers escorted him and his young son into secondary screening for interrogation to verify that the child was traveling willingly. In an hour of frantic texting, his wife managed to send copies of the birth certificate and documentation just in time to clear them for their flight. While Jiang spent the subsequent month traveling and appearing on various media outlets—presuming his Canadian citizenship gave him typical border leniency—returning to Pearson for this interview resulted in him immediately being pulled back into secondary screening despite having every document in hand.
- **August 5 (7:00 AM):** Detained at Toronto Pearson International Airport ahead of an 8:30 AM flight to Los Angeles for an interview with Theo Von.
- **Documentation Hurdles:** Interrogated over traveling with his 8-year-old son Chris without a notarized parental consent form, forcing frantic last-minute retrieval of birth records from his wife.
- **Repeated Scrutiny:** Despite holding a Canadian passport and returning with full documentation, border officers automatically flagged and funneled him into secondary interrogation once again.
[01:06:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4000s) "A Clean Break" Memo, Neoconservative Architecture, and Empire in Decline
Jiang attributes this pattern of targeted border harassment not to innocent administrative errors, but to influential figures retaliating against his public critiques of U.S. and Middle Eastern foreign policy. Specifically, he links the hostility to his podcast discussions dissecting the 1996 policy document *"A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm"*. Prepared by a neoconservative study group that included Richard Perle and Douglas Feith—who later served in George W. Bush’s Pentagon alongside Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz—the memo outlined a radical blueprint for aggressive regime changes across the Middle East to cement Israel as the uncontested regional hegemon. Jiang argues that current confrontations with Iran represent the direct culmination of that 1996 doctrine, and that naming its historical architects on mass platforms crossed an unacceptable line for powerful interests.
He compares his ordeal to the treatment of independent American journalist Max Blumenthal, who was targeted with calls for arrest by political activist Laura Loomer after traveling to Iran to report on a state funeral. Upon landing back in the U.S., Blumenthal—a natural-born American citizen—had all his electronic devices seized by border agents, prompting a federal lawsuit against the Department of Homeland Security. For Jiang, these heavy-handed retaliations are diagnostic symptoms of an empire entering terminal decline: consumed by arrogance and institutional hubris, a falling superpower reflexively attempts to silence, harass, and censor its critics rather than heed constructive strategic warnings. While he concedes that custom agents never explicitly stated their motivations, their informal warnings made it clear that secondary interrogations would greet him every time he attempts to cross the border.
[01:09:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4149s) Border Anxieties and the Looming End of the I-94
Professor Jiang wraps up a personal anecdote regarding his precarious travel status entering the United States. He explains that border agents signaled that on any future entry, he will almost certainly be pulled into secondary inspection to prove he is traveling for legitimate purposes. More concerningly, the border officer hinted that once his current I-94 permit expires in six months, authorities may simply refuse to renew it, effectively barring him from entering the country altogether. Despite the chilling bureaucratic warning, Jiang expresses deep, heartfelt affection for the country: "I have the deepest admiration for the American people. I think that the Americans are the most open and generous people in the world." Even so, he soberly acknowledges the reality of the geopolitical shift, noting that "we are living in very interesting times."
[01:09:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4184s) Prediction #3: Lionel Messi Becomes President of Argentina
Jiang turns to his third geopolitical forecast, delivering an unexpected prediction that catches Steven Bartlett completely off guard: football legend Lionel Messi will eventually become the president of Argentina. While Bartlett laughs in disbelief, Jiang explains that beneath the entertaining premise lies a deadly serious geopolitical realignment involving Argentina, the United States, and Israel. Argentine President Javier Milei has formed an exceptionally close relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, opening the country to substantial Israeli investment and migration. Remarkably, Israeli citizens entering Argentina reportedly receive immediate access to the country's public healthcare and pension systems upon arrival—an extraordinary privilege for non-citizens that signals deep state-level coordination.
Jiang argues this arrangement addresses an existential internal crisis inside Israel: an undeclared civil war between messianic Jews—who believe the current escalating regional war will fulfill biblical prophecy and usher in the Messiah—and secular Jews who see this religious apocalypticism as insanity. The release valve for this tension, Jiang suggests, is exporting secular Israelis abroad, with Argentina serving as the primary haven. However, because public sentiment toward Israel in Argentina is fraught, the government will need an overwhelmingly popular domestic narrative to make large-scale immigration palatable. Jiang predicts that uniting the public behind national icon Lionel Messi as president—paired with an aggressive reassertion of Argentine sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, backed by Donald Trump—creates the exact domestic fervor required to transform the country. Bartlett, speaking as a British citizen, playfully brushes off the Falklands provocation, admitting with a chuckle, "It's okay. I like Messi."
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: The Argentina-Israel Geopolitical Alignment
accDescr: Flowchart illustrating how internal religious and secular polarization in Israel leads to migration toward Argentina, facilitated by Milei, Trump, and Messi.
subgraph Israel["Internal Crisis in Israel"]
Messianic["Messianic Faction<br/>(End-times war prophecy)"]
Secular["Secular Faction<br/>(Resisting theological conflict)"]
Messianic <-->|Internal friction| Secular
end
subgraph Migration["The Argentina Haven"]
Relocation["Exporting Secular Population<br/>to Argentina"]
Incentives["Immediate Healthcare &<br/>Pension Access"]
Secular --> Relocation
Relocation --> Incentives
end
subgraph DomesticBuyIn["Argentine Public Legitimacy"]
MileiNetanyahu["Milei-Netanyahu Partnership<br/>& U.S./Trump Backing"]
Falklands["Reclaiming the Falkland Islands"]
Messi["Lionel Messi elevated<br/>to President"]
MileiNetanyahu --> Falklands
MileiNetanyahu --> Messi
Messi --> Acceptance["Public acceptance of massive<br/>demographic & strategic shifts"]
Falklands --> Acceptance
end
Incentives -.-> Acceptance
```
[01:12:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4356s) Why China and Japan Could Go to War
Bartlett brings up another striking assertion: that China and Japan are on an inevitable collision course toward conflict. When asked why, Jiang remarks with a laugh that "every Chinese believes this." While Western defense analysts and media obsess over the idea of an imminent Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan, Jiang contends that neither mainland Chinese citizens nor the Taiwanese themselves believe an invasion is coming, as it contradicts the modern Chinese foreign policy playbook. China has not fought a major foreign war since its border conflict with Vietnam in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Instead, the profound, unaddressed fault line in East Asia sits squarely between Beijing and Tokyo, rooted in raw geography, history, and resource dependency.
Jiang diagrams the stark structural differences between the two Asian titans. China is fundamentally an agricultural, self-sufficient continental land power. Japan, by contrast, is an insular maritime sea power entirely dependent on foreign imports for raw materials and energy. Historically, Japan's fragile terrain—perpetually rattled by earthquakes and tsunamis—cultivated an intensely cohesive population alongside a fierce, militarized samurai culture that turned outward to piracy and conquest to survive. In the present day, the disruption of Middle Eastern energy via the Iran conflict threatens both powers, but Japan is far more fragile. Facing the most rapidly aging demographic profile on Earth, Japan risks civilizational extinction over the next fifty years if it cannot secure external resource corridors. During World War II, when the United States imposed an oil embargo on Tokyo, Japan felt forced into a catastrophic war; today, Japan refuses to become entirely subservient to Washington for its energy and must safeguard direct access to its historic resource hinterland: Southeast Asia.
- **Continental vs. Maritime Model:** China relies on internal landmass and agricultural scale; Japan relies strictly on maritime transit corridors for survival.
- **Demographic Vulnerability:** Japan has the most elderly population on earth, leaving it virtually zero room to absorb an energy blockade or supply shock.
- **Historical Echoes:** Jiang points out that U.S. resource embargos in 1941 forced Japan's military expansion, a structural trauma Japanese strategic planners have never forgotten.
[01:16:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4570s) The Taiwan Chokepoint and the Proxy Leverage Game
The core catalyst for Sino-Japanese conflict is Taiwan's position squarely in the center of the South China Sea. If Taiwan and mainland China were ever to reunify, Beijing would possess the geographic capability to impose a naval blockade or embargo on Japan's trade routes. When Bartlett asks for clarification on what an embargo implies, Jiang confirms it means an operational blockade that cuts off vital lifelines. Even if Beijing never activates that blockade, the mere leverage of holding Japan's jugular is viewed in Tokyo as an existential threat to its national survival. Jiang recalls that when prominent Japanese politicians—such as Sanae Takaichi—publicly declared Taiwan's security indistinguishable from Japan's national security, Beijing overreacted fiercely, curtailing the massive flow of millions of Chinese tourists visiting Japan.
Direct total war between China and Japan remains undesirable for all parties because it would unleash catastrophic global chaos. Instead, the confrontation is unfolding through asymmetric leverage and regional alliances. Acknowledging it cannot fight China alone, Japan is forging a formidable balancing coalition with the Philippines, Australia, and India—an alignment capable of threatening a counter-embargo on Chinese maritime trade even without immediate U.S. intervention. In response, China avoids overt aggression that would frighten the rest of Southeast Asia into a unified anti-China coalition. To counter Tokyo's moves, Jiang explains that Beijing relies on its ultimate regional proxy: North Korea. By keeping Seoul under the immediate threat of devastating artillery fire just twenty minutes away, and regularly lobbing ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, North Korea serves as Beijing's instrument to rattle Tokyo and check the regional balance of power.
[01:20:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4814s) Why the U.S. Doesn't Care About Taiwan and TSMC's Relocation
Addressing the escalating maritime standoff in the Asia-Pacific, Professor Jiang explains that while China attempts to assert naval dominance over the South China Sea and relies on North Korea as an aggressive proxy to intimidate South Korea and Japan, the broader trajectory hinges on an American withdrawal. As the United States strategically pulls back from the region, historical animosities between Beijing and Tokyo are primed to combust. In Jiang’s view, fomenting maximum friction between China and Japan serves Washington’s core geopolitical self-interest rather than harming it.
When Steven Bartlett interjects to ask whether this dynamic catastrophically compromises Taiwan—pointing out that Taiwan supplies the world with its advanced semiconductors—Jiang dismisses the concern outright with a blunt: "Who cares?... No, it doesn't." Jiang argues that Donald Trump and American policymakers have already telegraphed their true playbook: forcing Taiwan to transfer its advanced semiconductor fabrication directly onto American soil. Taiwanese chip giant TSMC is already constructing massive manufacturing infrastructure in Arizona. Heightening the regional crisis between China and Japan simply accelerates this flight of high-tech capital, leaving the island's foundries abandoned in favor of American factories while serving the ultimate strategic objectives of the United States.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Taiwan Semiconductor Strategy
accDescr: Diagram mapping US strategic incentives regarding Taiwan and TSMC relocation.
subgraph Conflict["Regional Pressures"]
A["Rising China-Japan & Cross-Strait Tension"]
B["Threat of Chinese Naval Hegemony"]
end
subgraph Shift["Economic Realignment"]
C["Forced Relocation of Critical Tech"]
D["TSMC Arizona Foundries Expansion"]
end
subgraph Outcome["U.S. Strategic Goal"]
E["Onshoring High-End Semiconductor Supply"]
F["U.S. Disentanglement from Regional Defense"]
end
A --> C
B --> C
C --> D
D --> E
E --> F
```
[01:21:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4892s) The War of Attrition: Why Russia Must Provoke NATO
Turning their attention to the European theater, Bartlett questions Jiang about his prediction that Russia will eventually invade the Baltics. Jiang breaks down the mechanical reality of the war in Ukraine. While frontline headlines depict territorial shifts in eastern Ukraine, a profound operational shift has occurred: Ukrainian forces have bypassed static trench warfare by deploying long-range attack drones directly into Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure. By bringing the destruction home to ordinary Russian citizens, Ukraine has imposed severe economic hardship and degraded Vladimir Putin’s domestic popularity.
This operational shift has completely changed Moscow's calculus. From the Kremlin's viewpoint, the true adversary is not Kyiv, but NATO and Europe. Ukraine’s drones and precision weapons are actively manufactured across factories in Germany, the United Kingdom, and allied territories, backed by open-ended Western financing and real-time military intelligence. Russia recognizes that fighting a prolonged war of attrition against an adversary whose sovereign industrial supply chain sits entirely immune behind the NATO defensive umbrella is a guaranteed path to defeat.
To break this asymmetric trap, Russia believes it has no strategic alternative but to force NATO out of its sanctuary and drag Europe into open conflict:
- **Tit-for-Tat Escalation:** Tensions between Berlin and Moscow recently ruptured following a suspicious drone incident at Germany's Leipzig Airport, leading Germany to expel personnel and shut down the Russian consulate in Bonn, matched by Russia closing the German consulate in St. Petersburg.
- **Echoes of 1941:** Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov invoked historical parallels by warning that current tensions mirror 1941, the year Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union.
- **Strikes on European Soil:** Jiang concludes that Moscow will inevitably target critical defense and drone manufacturing infrastructure inside European nations like Germany and the UK to shatter their safe-haven status.
[01:25:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5121s) U.S. Game Theory and the Threat of Total War Mobilization
Bartlett wonders why Vladimir Putin would not simply strike a negotiated settlement, pointing to reported backchannel peace discussions led by Jared Kushner. Jiang reframes the situation through ruthless game theory: from an American imperial perspective, perpetual war between Europe and Russia is far superior to peace. A continent-wide military crisis permanently severs Russian fossil fuels from international markets and grants the United States near-monopolistic leverage over European energy needs. Jiang argues that Washington succumbs to its own persistent imperial delusion—the belief that Putin is merely a vulnerable "paper tiger" who will collapse under another two months of energy strikes, triggering a clean domestic regime change akin to Western regime-change fantasies in Iran and Venezuela.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Russia Escalation Cycle
accDescr: Flowchart illustrating Russia's pathway from attrition to total war mobilization.
subgraph Trap["The Attrition Trap"]
A["Ukraine Hits Russian Refineries"] --> B["Kremlin Faces Attrition Defeat"]
end
subgraph Response["Russian Counter-Move"]
B --> C["Declare Total War"]
C --> D["Activate 3M Reservists"]
end
subgraph Goal["European Contagion"]
D --> E["Force European Conscription"]
E --> F["Domestic Revolt Across Europe"]
end
```
For Putin, survival requires overturning this paradigm entirely. According to Jiang, Moscow sees only one narrow path to victory: plunging Europe into severe domestic instability and civil unrest. The Kremlin's playbook aims to force European capitals into enacting mass military mobilization—gambling that European citizens will stage violent rebellions to overthrow their own leaders rather than be conscripted to fight in Eastern Europe:
- **Special Military Operation vs. Total War:** Russia has yet to formally declare war; it has relied almost entirely on volunteers and contracted soldiers.
- **Latent Manpower:** Transitioning to formal "total war" would allow Moscow to legally mobilize its adult population, unlocking an estimated pool of at least 3 million military reservists.
- **Contagion Effect:** Russian total mobilization would force panicked NATO governments into retaliatory societal conscription, igniting massive domestic unrest and internal political collapse across European societies.
[01:28:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5333s) The Collapse of the Neoliberal Dream and the Oslo Accords
Stepping back from the looming crises across the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and East Asia, Bartlett asks what conditions would need to materialize for the world in 2036 to avoid these catastrophic collisions entirely. Jiang answers by examining the origins of modern Western foreign policy consensus. In the mid-1990s, the international order was defined by the Washington Consensus and the triumphant dogma of neoliberalism championed by the Clinton administration.
This worldview operated on an unshakeable thesis: that consumer capitalism and economic integration could permanently replace historical conflict. Policymakers believed that if populations were granted access to air conditioning, SUVs, and global supply chains, ancient religious and ideological blood feuds would dissolve—just as militaristic Germany and Japan had been converted into pacifist, consumer-driven trading partners following World War II.
This philosophy was put to the test in the Middle East through the 1990s Oslo peace process:
- **The Neoliberal Blueprint:** The architects of the Oslo Accords believed that constructing an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel would naturally integrate both nations into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) trade architecture.
- **Commercial Pacification:** Western planners presumed that shared prosperity, consumerism, and mutual economic dependency would eradicate hatred between Israelis and Palestinians for good.
- **The Turning Point:** That foundational optimistic thesis began its collapse in 1996 with the election of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and the introduction of a radical ideological counter-framework: the neoconservative "Clean Break" doctrine.
[01:31:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5489s) The "Clean Break" Doctrine and Regional Escalation
Professor Jiang outlines the ideological origins behind modern Israeli geopolitical strategy, tracing it back to the worldview championed by Benjamin Netanyahu. Under this perspective, Israel operates under the foundational premise that it can never trust Arab neighbors to abandon their hostility, viewing the land as divinely ordained and surrounding populations as irreconcilable adversaries. Jiang summarizes this uncompromising stance as abandoning peace and compromise in pursuit of becoming an unchecked regional hegemon—a trajectory justified as a historical and biblical manifest destiny.
Steven Bartlett reads out the specifics of the 1996 policy document prepared for Netanyahu by an American neoconservative study group, titled *"A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm"*. When Bartlett asks if Netanyahu merely read the memo, Jiang clarifies that Netanyahu explicitly commissioned it. The discussion highlights the three structural pillars established by the document that have dictated Israeli foreign policy for the subsequent three decades:
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: The Clean Break Strategic Doctrine
accDescr: Three core pillars of the 1996 Clean Break policy document commissioned for Benjamin Netanyahu.
subgraph Pillars ["Core Strategic Pillars (1996)"]
P1["Abandon 'Land for Peace'<br/>Discard Oslo Accords; shift to 'peace through strength'"]
P2["Establish Regional Hegemony<br/>Destabilize Iraq, Syria & the Hezbollah axis"]
P3["Preemptive Military Action<br/>Replace defensive containment with offensive strikes"]
end
Pillars --> Execution["30 Years of Implementation"]
Execution --> Outcome["Regional Escalation & Entanglement"]
```
- **Abandoning "Land for Peace":** Repudiating the Oslo Accords framework in favor of "peace through strength" and "peace for peace" without making territorial concessions to Palestinians.
- **Regional Dominance:** Weakening hostile neighbors by promoting regime change in Iraq and Syria and dismantling the strategic axis linking Iraq, Syria, and Hezbollah.
- **Preemptive Military Action:** Transitioning permanently away from defensive containment policies to offensive, proactive strikes.
[01:34:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5696s) The Irreversible Breakdown of the Global Order
When Bartlett questions whether avoiding global catastrophe simply required forcing Israel to make peace through the 1990s neoliberal framework, Jiang explains that Washington missed its window of leverage. While Israel was and remains deeply dependent on the United States for advanced weaponry, financing, and technological aid as the largest cumulative recipient of American foreign assistance, the opportunity to enforce containment has passed.
Jiang argues that the historical moment to rein in these confrontations has expired because macro-structural dynamics are already in motion. The systemic shocks unleashed across the Middle East have destabilized energy arteries and international shipping lanes, accelerating the unravelling of open commerce. With international supply chains unraveling, the world has defaulted into an "every nation for itself" paradigm. Crucial geopolitical flashpoints—such as the rivalry between China and Japan in East Asia, or the confrontation between Germany, Eastern Europe, and Russia—are now structurally primed for direct conflict. As Jiang emphasizes, the geopolitical genie cannot be put back into the bottle.
[01:35:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5749s) Personal Resilience: Faith, Family, and Speaking Truth
Faced with the alarming prospect of systemic trade breakdowns and spreading warfare, Bartlett turns to the personal sphere, asking what concrete advice Jiang can offer ordinary citizens who hold no political influence and simply want to protect their families. Jiang's response moves away from political organizing toward an explicitly spiritual foundation: "Believe in God."
Jiang shares an intensely personal reflection on his background as an elite product of modern Western meritocracy. Having received top-tier Ivy League training, he explains how contemporary elite institutions systematically inculcate a purely materialistic worldview that dismisses spiritual meaning. That hyper-rationalist secular conditioning left him struggling through his twenties, thirties, and forties in states of anger, depression, and existential frustration, concluding that if God does not exist, the universe is reduced to purposeless chaos devoid of hope or structure. His worldview shifted fundamentally only within the last two years, anchor-pointed by his marriage to his wife—whom he describes as an angel—and the birth of their three children.
Crucially, Jiang stresses that having faith in a divine order does not equate to passive escapism or retreating to one's bedroom to play video games. True spiritual grounding compels an individual to engage actively in the world through a single moral imperative: telling the truth. Explaining his grueling schedule of podcast appearances, Jiang notes that bearing witness to geopolitical reality is a matter of duty. When one recognizes that history has direction and purpose, one is duty-bound to speak clearly about what lies ahead regardless of whether it alters the ultimate political outcome.
[01:38:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5924s) Suffering as the Crucible for Spiritual Awakening
Bartlett challenges Jiang on the theological dilemma inherent in this view, asking why a benevolent God would permit brutal conflicts like the war in Ukraine or regional devastation across the Middle East. Jiang counters with a Socratic question: "What is the path to wisdom?" Bartlett readily answers, "Struggle, pain, failure," prompting Jiang's dry laugh when Bartlett asks whether wisdom can ever be obtained without enduring the agony first.
True spiritual maturity, Jiang contends, requires gratitude even during dark historical chapters because profound crises strip away modern complacency. Modern secular society measures existence by accumulating wealth, status, and fast cars, whereas humanity's actual purpose is to learn what it means to be fully human—cultivating empathy, love, and imagination. Jiang points to a sociological trap: excessive power, fame, and material luxury inevitably suffocate empathy and imagination. Consequently, catastrophic disruptions force individuals out of superficial distractions and compel them to ask what genuinely sustains them. In Jiang's view, the rediscovery of love for family and community amid global breakdown represents the potential catalyst for a redemptive spiritual awakening.
[01:40:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=6040s) Why AI Will Become a Surveillance Control Grid Instead of AGI
Bartlett brings the conversation to artificial intelligence, noting that AI intersects with every major geopolitical variable discussed—including advanced semiconductors, robotics, national energy demands, and the broader US-China technological rivalry. Jiang contextualizes the trajectory of AI within his core formula for human civilizational progress:
Under this model, cutting-edge technological development depends strictly on hyper-specialized labor sustained by frictionless global trade networks. Because warfare and geopolitical friction are actively severing these worldwide supply chains, Jiang asserts that AI will not achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The hardware, fabrication inputs, cross-border research pipelines, and colossal compute dependencies required to make the conceptual leap into self-improving AGI will simply not be available.
Instead of developing into an engine of abundance capable of solving resource scarcity, eradicating complex medical diseases, or reversing climate change, AI will undergo a darker structural pivot. States and institutions will repurpose machine learning tools into centralized digital control grids focused entirely on domestic monitoring, population management, and pervasive surveillance. Bartlett concurs, observing that major metropolitan centers like New York City already possess ubiquitous public surveillance camera networks; all that currently limits their reach is that the cameras remain "dumb" and lack integrated analytical connectivity—a barrier that AI is poised to eliminate.
[01:42:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=6129s) The Spiritual Hazard of AI and Dehumanization
Continuing the discussion on pervasive AI surveillance—where networked cameras and algorithms can seamlessly track an individual walking down the street to their hotel—Steven Bartlett asks Professor Jiang Xueqin whether this omnipresent surveillance state represents his primary concern regarding artificial intelligence. Jiang agrees that intensified surveillance is indeed the most probable societal trajectory, noting that escalating crises will only accelerate adoption; for example, a theoretical siege of New York City would readily serve as an opportunity for defense contractors like Palantir to rapidly deploy autonomous, AI-driven drone warfare.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: AI Acceleration from Geopolitical Crisis to Spiritual Risk
accDescr: Flowchart illustrating how crises drive AI surveillance and autonomous warfare, ultimately leading to the deeper risk of human dehumanization.
subgraph Crisis_Driver ["Geopolitical Catalysts"]
A["Severe Domestic Crises<br/>(e.g., Siege scenarios)"] --> B["Accelerated Military Tech<br/>(Palantir, Autonomous Drones)"]
B --> C["Omnipresent Surveillance<br/>State & Tracking"]
end
subgraph Core_Threat ["The Underlying Human Threat"]
C -.-> D["Tech Ideology<br/>(Musk, Thiel, Altman:<br/>'Computers > Humans')"]
D --> E["Dehumanization & Cheapening<br/>of Human Experience"]
E --> F["Distraction from True Mission:<br/>Spiritual Growth, Kindness & Love"]
end
```
Jiang insists, however, that surveillance is not the core danger. To him, the true peril lies in how artificial intelligence cheapens the human experience and promotes profound dehumanization. Tech luminaries such as Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Sam Altman often champion the idea that computers are fundamentally superior to human intelligence. Jiang concedes that machines will inevitably outstrip people at computational mathematics or clinical diagnostics, but he argues that human worth cannot be measured by computational output. The essence of the human experience is to love, imagine, and show kindness to others; obsessing over artificial intelligence distracts humanity from its authentic mission, which is fundamentally spiritual growth.
[01:43:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=6217s) Finding Hope and Meaning in Fatherhood
When Steven Bartlett asks Jiang what gives him hope amidst his grim geopolitical outlook, Jiang answers without hesitation: his children. Pointing to his young son Chris, who joined him at the studio, Jiang reflects candidly on how parenthood saved him from cynicism and vanity. He admits that without children, he never would have achieved his current success because he would have lacked purpose and meaning. Moreover, had sudden fame arrived without the grounding anchor of fatherhood, he believes he would have corrupted very quickly—spending his "15 minutes of fame" grasping for maximum wealth and clout in a hollow race to prove material superiority over others. Having children shifted his focus away from short-term ego towards building an enduring legacy and modeling integrity.
Bartlett pushes on the tension between Jiang’s apocalyptic geopolitical forecasts and the reality of raising a child within that unraveling world. Jiang insists he feels zero anxiety about Chris's future. He explains that because he and his wife have poured unconditional love into their son, Chris possesses the deep-rooted confidence needed to face existence fully. In Jiang's philosophy, global disruptions and crises are not pointless catastrophes, but catalysts that force profound reflection and spiritual awakening.
Recalling an extraordinary memory from when Chris was just two years old, Jiang shares that his son looked at them and announced, "Mom, dad, I'm from another world," even naming the specific world and explaining that he was an alien merely visiting Earth. Rather than dismissing it, Jiang and his wife took it in stride, acknowledging that he arrived to experience humanity in all of its flaws, suffering, and complexities. Jiang emphasizes that their job as parents is neither to control nor hoard their son's destiny, but to empower him on his own journey, concluding that true love requires total liberation—freeing oneself from personal anxiety and from the compulsion to govern other people.
[01:46:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=6382s) Confronting Fear and Final Reflections
In keeping with *The Diary Of A CEO* tradition, Steven Bartlett presents the unseen question left by the prior guest: "What is your biggest challenge and how are you working on fixing it?"
Jiang reflects intimately on his internal battle against fear, doubt, and paralysis. Having just encountered border control when traveling into the United States the previous day, he admits to harboring persistent anxieties that he might one day be barred from re-entering the country—or find himself persona non grata across multiple states because of his outspoken critiques:
- **Sovereign Sensitivities:** Having publicly and sharply criticized China, Canada, and the United States, Jiang worries that getting blacklisted or banned across these nations could leave him stranded in severe jeopardy.
- **Internal Anchors:** To counter this fear and avoid paralysis, his constant practice is working to maintain grounded faith in God, deep devotion to his family, and conviction in his overarching purpose.
Bartlett commends his honesty and warmly recalls meeting Chris in the green room just before the recording. Watching the young boy play intently with Play-Doh and toys, Bartlett remarks on how visibly curious and bright he is, congratulating Jiang on raising him. Steven closes the interview by encouraging the audience to explore the channel's algorithm-recommended videos.
## Notable quotes
> [16:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=1001s) a giant lake of gasoline ready to be blown up. — Professor Jiang Xueqin
> [38:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2321s) People are much cheaper and much more expendable than robots. — Jiang Xueqin
> [44:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2658s) The more power you have, the less imagination, empathy you have... you don't think killing millions of Iranians is too heavy a price. It's all worth it if you can maintain the empire. The hubris leads you to believe that the gods favor you and you ultimately win and triumph in this great struggle. — Jiang Xueqin
> [47:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2856s) push all in — Jiang Xueqin
> [49:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=2986s) screw these conventions — Jiang Xueqin
> [53:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3203s) Do you think Trump is going to have a third term? Do you want to bet? — Steven Bartlett
> [53:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3203s) may not be worth anything — Jiang Xueqin
> [01:00:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=3625s) Would you say 9/11 was hard to do? — Jiang Xueqin
> [01:09:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4149s) I have the deepest admiration for the American people. I think that the Americans are the most open and generous people in the world. — Jiang Xueqin
> [01:09:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4149s) we are living in very interesting times. — Jiang Xueqin
> [01:09:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=4184s) It's okay. I like Messi. — Steven Bartlett
> [01:35:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5749s) Believe in God. — Jiang Xueqin
> [01:38:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=5924s) Struggle, pain, failure — Steven Bartlett
> [01:43:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI&t=6217s) Mom, dad, I'm from another world — Chris
## Mentioned
Professor Jiang Xueqin, Steven Bartlett, Donald Trump, Lionel Messi, Richard Nixon, ASML, Apple, Nvidia, Houthis, Hezbollah, IRGC, Saddam Hussein, Bon Charge, Stan, Stanley, Spruce Pine, North Carolina, Colorado River, Donald Trump Jr., Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Theo Von, Max Blumenthal, Laura Loomer, Richard Perle, Douglas Feith, Paul Wolfowitz, George W. Bush, Javier Milei, Benjamin Netanyahu, Reform UK, Alternative for Germany (AfD), MAGA, Vox, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm, Toronto Pearson International Airport, Falkland Islands, Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, I-94, Chris, Sanae Takaichi, Vladimir Putin, Sergey Lavrov, Jared Kushner, Bill Clinton, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Sam Altman, TSMC, Palantir, NATO, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Oslo Accords, Leipzig Airport
## Video description
Could war and global trade breakdowns trigger a modern Bronze Age collapse? Uncover the hidden geopolitical forces dismantling the American empire and what this shift means for our future.
Professor Jiang Xueqin is a renowned geopolitical analyst and Yale educated scholar who applies rigorous historical patterns and game theory to forecast the world's most catastrophic conflicts. He returns to reveal the hidden vulnerabilities of our modern civilization by mapping the intricate connections between natural resources, military hegemony, and global supply chains. This urgent analysis provides a framework to help everyday people find meaning and resilience amidst the impending global chaos.
*In this episode, he explains:*
■ *The Innovation Equation:* Why technological progress is strictly dictated by specialization multiplied by globalization.
■ *The Petrodollar Collapse:* How the entire global economy relies on US military hegemony and the Middle East.
■ *The Hubris Trap:* Why mass, resources, and technology eventually become a nation's greatest weaknesses.
■ *The Next Geopolitical Flashpoints:* How severe water scarcity and shifting demographics in the Global South will trigger mass migration, intense polarization, and potential civil wars across Western societies.
■ *The Financial 9/11:* Why the next catastrophic terror attack won't target physical buildings, but rather critical financial data servers designed to wipe out bank accounts.
00:00:00 Intro
00:02:09 Where Is the World Heading?
00:10:15 What Would a Collapse of Civilization Actually Look Like?
00:14:02 Who Are the Houthis—and Why Do They Matter?
00:16:41 Why This Is Different From the Iraq War
00:23:09 Why Is It So Hard to Believe a Collapse Could Happen?
00:26:33 Could War Actually Reach American Shores?
00:29:56 Ads
00:38:41 How Immigration Could Push Politics Further Right
00:41:34 What Happens Next With Iran?
00:42:36 How Iran Could Disrupt Global Trade
00:44:18 The Iran Prediction—and What Happens Next
00:46:11 Could This Trigger a Massive Migration Crisis?
00:47:36 What Would Trump Do Next?
00:48:46 Can Trump Back Out of This War?
00:49:46 Prediction #1: Could New York City Face a Siege?
00:53:23 When Could This Conflict Actually Happen?
00:58:11 Prediction #2: An Attack on U.S. Financial Infrastructure
01:02:12 Ads
01:03:17 Why Getting Back Into the U.S. Could Become a Problem
01:09:45 Prediction #3: Messi Becomes President of Argentina
01:12:36 Why China and Japan Could Go to War
01:20:46 How Far Would the U.S. Go to Defend Taiwan?
01:21:31 Could Russia Invade the Baltics?
01:25:21 Can Russia Make a Deal Instead of Going to War?
01:26:48 Does Trump Actually Want Ukraine to Win?
01:29:02 What Could Stop These Global Conflicts From Spreading?
01:35:31 How the Average Person Can Prepare for What’s Coming
01:40:52 How AI Changes the Global Power Struggle
01:42:35 Why AI Surveillance Could Be the Bigger Threat
01:46:22 The Biggest Personal Challenge—and How to Overcome It
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Professor Jiang Xueqin argues that the interconnected post-war global order is heading toward systemic collapse, driven by fragile international supply chains, vulnerable financial architectures, and escalating proxy conflicts that will force nations into autarkic regression.
Supply Chain Fragility and Civilizational Regression (8:35)
Jiang posits that technological progress is governed by a strict formula—specialization multiplied by globalization. Because modern technologies require deeply distributed international supply chains, any systemic geopolitical fracture degrades specialization and forces technological regression. Jiang illustrates this vulnerability through the semiconductor industry: advanced microchips require raw materials concentrated heavily in China (60% to 70% of global silicon, 70% of gallium, and roughly 90% of germanium), lithography tools from the Netherlands and Japan, design architecture from the United States, and fabrication in Taiwan.
Drawing a historical parallel to the Late Bronze Age collapse around 1200–1150 BCE—where the breakdown of trade routes for copper and tin cascaded into systemic societal failure—Jiang claims modern civilization faces a similar unraveling. As maritime chokepoints face blockades and sanctions multiply, nations will be forced to abandon efficient global specialization to build redundant, domestic generalist systems, precipitating an era of economic autarky.
Middle East Chokepoints and Petrodollar Breakdown (19:45)
Jiang asserts that the confrontation involving Iran is fundamentally different from conventional past conflicts such as the 2003 Iraq War. Instead of a centralized state, Western powers face decentralized, religiously committed regional actors—including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iraqi Shia militias—operating under the coordination of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with material backing from China and Russia. Geographically, these actors hold decisive leverage over critical maritime trade corridors, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.
Under what Jiang describes as a game-theoretic 'madman strategy,' coordinated strikes disrupting commercial shipping and maritime insurance would cripple the petrodollar loop, which relies on uninterrupted Middle Eastern crude powering Asian manufacturing to finance U.S. debt. In response to commercial paralysis, Jiang anticipates the U.S. military would bypass symmetric naval engagements to strike Iran's domestic infrastructure, such as power grids and desalination plants, despite the catastrophic civilian toll.
Great Power Collisions Across Europe and Asia (81:32)
In the European theater, Jiang argues that Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have shifted the strategic calculus for the Kremlin. Facing an attritional conflict against an adversary whose industrial supply chains sit protected behind NATO borders, Moscow may conclude it must escalate directly against NATO to force European conscription and political crisis. Jiang contends Washington views prolonged conflict as strategically advantageous, using it to sever European reliance on Russian fossil fuels.
In East Asia, Jiang identifies the Taiwan Strait as an existential flashpoint for Japan, whose vital maritime shipping routes could be severed by Chinese control. However, Jiang claims American policymakers are indifferent to Taiwan's eventual political fate, viewing regional tensions primarily as an incentive to force Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers, such as TSMC, to relocate advanced fabrication facilities onto American soil.
The Financial 9/11 and Repurposed AI Surveillance (57:44)
Looking at asymmetric homeland threats, Jiang predicts the next major attack against the United States will target electronic financial infrastructure rather than physical architecture. He envisions a scenario where cyber warfare or data strikes wipe domestic bank balances and transaction networks clean, instigating immediate social panic and paralyzing domestic commerce by striking at the population's core sense of financial security.
Addressing artificial intelligence, Jiang rejects predictions of imminent Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Because developing AGI requires massive compute, specialized hardware, and frictionless global collaboration that collapsing trade networks cannot support, AI development will plateau. Instead of unlocking universal abundance, machine learning capabilities will be repurposed by central governments and defense contractors into pervasive surveillance grids and automated domestic policing systems.
Jiang concludes that ordinary citizens must cultivate personal resilience through faith, family, and ethical grounding rather than relying on political institutions. His forecasts—ranging from total financial system blackouts to an unavoidable civilizational collapse—rely heavily on deterministic interpretations of historical cycles and worst-case game-theory models, leaving open whether decentralized supply networks and international diplomacy possess greater adaptive resilience than his thesis allows.
[16:41] Professor Jiang Xueqin: a giant lake of gasoline ready to be blown up.
[38:41] Jiang Xueqin: People are much cheaper and much more expendable than robots.
[44:18] Jiang Xueqin: The more power you have, the less imagination, empathy you have... you don't think killing millions of Iranians is too heavy a price. It's all worth it if you can maintain the empire. The hubris leads you to believe that the gods favor you and you ultimately win and triumph in this great struggle.
[47:36] Jiang Xueqin: push all in
[49:46] Jiang Xueqin: screw these conventions
[53:23] Steven Bartlett: Do you think Trump is going to have a third term? Do you want to bet?
[53:23] Jiang Xueqin: may not be worth anything
[60:25] Jiang Xueqin: Would you say 9/11 was hard to do?
[69:09] Jiang Xueqin: I have the deepest admiration for the American people. I think that the Americans are the most open and generous people in the world.
[69:09] Jiang Xueqin: we are living in very interesting times.
[69:44] Steven Bartlett: It's okay. I like Messi.
[95:49] Jiang Xueqin: Believe in God.
[98:44] Steven Bartlett: Struggle, pain, failure
[103:37] Chris: Mom, dad, I'm from another world
Original transcript
[0:00] I think there are a lot of people who do
[0:01] not like what I'm saying. I am one of
[0:03] the most polarizing figures in the world
[0:05] right now. But I'm trying to prepare
[0:07] everyone. And what I want to explain
[0:09] [music] to you today, Stephen, is why
[0:11] the world is collapsing. Because having
[0:14] studied patterns of history and global
[0:15] supply chains, I now recognize and have
[0:17] a framework to predict the future. And I
[0:20] brought to you three, four, five
[0:21] predictions structured around 9/11.
[0:23] >> So what are your predictions? I've been
[0:25] dying to know. My first prediction, if
[0:27] there is another 911 attack, it will be
[0:29] an attack on the US financial
[0:32] infrastructure. Imagine one day you open
[0:34] your iPhone and you're looking to buy a
[0:37] coffee and all the money your bank
[0:39] account has been wiped out and they
[0:40] don't know when or how long it will take
[0:42] them to retrieve it. I believe that's
[0:44] what [music] makes Americans most
[0:45] vulnerable and therefore the most easily
[0:47] traumatized.
[0:48] >> What's prediction number two?
[0:49] >> Is that Lion Messi will become president
[0:51] of Argentina.
[0:52] >> Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that. And
[0:53] also, do you think Trump is going to
[0:55] have a third term? [music] Let's take a
[0:56] friendly ban and say $100. Trump gets a
[0:57] third term. There'll be a siege to New
[0:59] York City. Prediction three. My third
[1:00] prediction is that are you sure? You
[1:03] don't think that the US would actually
[1:04] do that?
[1:05] >> Well, I understand a lot of this is
[1:08] going to be extremely pessimistic, but
[1:10] we are living in a time of not just war,
[1:14] but also the regression of civilization.
[1:16] We've basically [music] hit the height
[1:18] of technological advancement. The word
[1:20] collapse you use there is a strong word.
[1:22] >> Yes. I am positive that we are seeing
[1:25] the collapse of civilization. All the
[1:27] stuffing that we have might have seen on
[1:29] television, it is coming to us in our
[1:31] lives and the world is essentially
[1:34] running out of time and I will paint a
[1:36] clear and simple picture of what is
[1:38] about to come. What would have to be the
[1:40] case for none of these sort of
[1:41] catastrophic things to take place.
[1:42] >> Well, the only that gives me hope is
[1:45] before this episode starts, I have a
[1:46] small favor to ask you. Two months ago,
[1:48] 61% of the people that watch this
[1:49] channel weren't subscribed. We're now
[1:51] down to 58%. My goal is 50%. So, if
[1:54] you've ever liked any of the videos
[1:55] we've made on this channel, if you like
[1:56] this channel, can you do me a small
[1:58] quick favor and hit the subscribe
[1:59] button? It helps this channel more than
[2:01] you know, and the bigger the channel
[2:02] gets, the more we can invest in the
[2:04] guests and the production. Thank you and
[2:05] enjoy this episode.
[2:10] Professor Chang,
[2:12] what is front of mind for you at the
[2:14] moment? Your energy is giving me some
[2:17] things on my mind. What is that?
[2:20] >> I think that we are living in
[2:25] a time when the world is collapsing.
[2:30] And so what I want to explain to you
[2:34] today, Stephen, is how we got to the
[2:37] world that we are in and why it is
[2:40] collapsing.
[2:42] So first thing I want to explain to you
[2:45] is the um petro dollar system which is
[2:48] the basis for the global economy. So
[2:51] let's go back to the year 1945 and this
[2:54] is the end of World War II and the
[2:56] United States is dominant. The United
[2:59] States will manufacture
[3:03] goods for Europe and for Japan which
[3:06] were destroyed in World War II. So what
[3:09] the United States said is we will lend
[3:12] you the US dollars in order to purchase
[3:16] the goods that we will export to you but
[3:19] you have to promise to pay us back in
[3:21] gold. And the United States became
[3:24] complacent. They were spending money
[3:26] they shouldn't have been spending.
[3:28] United States went from a credit nation
[3:30] to a debtor nation. So in the year 1971,
[3:35] Richard Nixon said that the US dollar
[3:39] would no longer be pegged to the gold.
[3:43] And so the question now was if the US
[3:45] dollar is no longer pegged to gold, then
[3:48] what is the value of the US dollar? So
[3:52] Richard Nixon had to create demand for
[3:55] the US dollar. And so three things
[3:58] happened after the something called the
[4:00] Nixon shock. 1977 in shock. Okay. So the
[4:04] first was a creation of a petro dollar.
[4:06] So Saudi Arabia and other countries in
[4:09] the Middle East agreed to sell their oil
[4:13] only in US dollars. So if you want to
[4:16] buy oil energy, you need US dollars.
[4:20] Late 70s, early 80s,
[4:23] China said the same thing. If you want
[4:26] our cheap manufactured goods, you have
[4:29] to pay in US dollars.
[4:32] Mid80s was something called a pla cord
[4:35] where Japan agreed to take all its
[4:41] savings and buy US treasuries.
[4:45] >> So it's essentially they're buying a a
[4:48] promise from the US. All this is based
[4:53] on promises, right? The US dollar is a
[4:56] contract. It's a promise. China promises
[5:00] to give you manufactured goods and Saudi
[5:03] Arabia promises to give you oil. This
[5:07] system, the petro dollar system create
[5:09] the world that we live in today. So, let
[5:11] me explain why. All right. So, this is a
[5:18] semiconductor.
[5:19] All right? And it's a basis of all
[5:21] technology of all computer. And there
[5:24] are three critical elements in a
[5:27] semiconductor. Silicon,
[5:30] they are gallium and they are
[5:34] germanmanium. Okay. There are many more
[5:37] elements but these are the three most
[5:39] critical and these three together allow
[5:44] uh semiconductors to achieve almost
[5:46] impossible
[5:48] technology. For example, pre precision
[5:51] missiles, satellite communication are
[5:53] all based on these three elements
[5:56] working together.
[5:59] Why we have these three elements in
[6:01] place is because of this global system.
[6:04] Because
[6:06] silicon is mainly manufactured in China
[6:11] about 60 70% of the world silicon comes
[6:13] from China. 70% of gallium comes from
[6:17] China. 90% of the world's germanmanium
[6:19] comes from China. Now for semiconductors
[6:24] to work the process is this. The United
[6:27] States mainly in California, Nvidia or
[6:32] Apple, they will design very advanced
[6:36] semiconductor chips to power the iPhone
[6:39] to power video games. Then United States
[6:43] will send this chip design over to
[6:47] Taiwan and Malaysia for the manufacturer
[6:51] of these chips.
[6:54] The Netherlands and Japan will create
[6:56] machines to print out these
[6:58] semiconductors. So a company in the
[7:00] Netherlands called ASML,
[7:04] they manufacture lithography machines
[7:06] that are worth $400 million each. Then
[7:09] these lethog machines and the chip
[7:11] design go to Taiwan, primarily Taiwan,
[7:13] but also Malaysia as well in order to
[7:17] manufacture these chips and then these
[7:20] chips are then sent to China to be put
[7:23] into appliances.
[7:25] So when you see this semiconductor,
[7:28] you're not just seeing a piece of metal
[7:31] and plastic. You're really seeing the
[7:34] world converging together. So I want you
[7:37] to remember this formula and this will
[7:39] help us explain how the world works.
[7:40] This formula is very simple.
[7:42] Technological progress is correlated
[7:46] with
[7:48] specialization
[7:49] times globalization.
[7:51] This is the formula. Okay. So it's very
[7:55] simple. All technolog technological
[7:57] progress is premised on more countries
[8:00] being able to specialize and these
[8:03] countries being able to trade freely
[8:05] with each other. And what makes this all
[8:07] possible is global trade that is
[8:11] supported by two things. The first of
[8:14] course is the US dollar. The second
[8:16] thing that's most important is is the US
[8:18] military hegemony.
[8:20] >> Hegemony meaning
[8:21] >> meaning there there are no pair
[8:23] competitor. There is no one who can
[8:25] challenge the United States in control
[8:28] of the seas.
[8:29] >> So you're coming now to the point of why
[8:31] you think because the the claim at the
[8:33] top was that the world is collapsing.
[8:35] >> Exactly. I bring this all up because we
[8:38] need to appreciate what technological
[8:40] innovation is. If techn technological
[8:42] innovation is specialization times
[8:45] globalization
[8:46] then we are living in a time of not just
[8:50] war but also the regression of
[8:54] civilization.
[8:55] So in other words my argument to you
[8:57] today is we've basically hit the apex
[9:02] the height of technological advancement.
[9:07] We cannot go any further because in
[9:12] order for technology to progress, you
[9:14] need greater specialization and you need
[9:16] greater globalization. But what we're
[9:19] seeing right now is this war in Iran, it
[9:23] will cause a chain of events that will
[9:25] force all nations to
[9:28] become much more general. Okay? So you
[9:30] will see a decline in specialization and
[9:33] they'll become much more nationalistic.
[9:34] They will need to create self-sufficient
[9:36] supply chains. So you will see a decline
[9:38] in globalization and therefore
[9:40] technology the progress will have to
[9:43] decline.
[9:43] >> The word collapse you use though is a
[9:45] strong word.
[9:46] >> Yes.
[9:48] >> Is that the word you meant?
[9:49] >> That's exactly the word I meant. We are
[9:51] living not through World War II. We are
[9:55] not living through a shifting of the
[9:57] global order. We are we will live
[10:00] through over the next 20 years the
[10:02] collapse of civilization itself.
[10:04] >> The collapse of civilization itself.
[10:07] >> Yes.
[10:09] >> Are you sure?
[10:10] >> I am positive that we are seeing um the
[10:13] collapse of civilization.
[10:15] >> Give me some definition around the
[10:16] collapse of civilization because people
[10:17] could infer that as oh you know the the
[10:19] dollar is not going to be as strong or
[10:21] they could say okay we're not going to
[10:22] innovate as much or I don't know if your
[10:23] prices are going to go up. But the
[10:24] collapse of civilization.
[10:26] >> Yes. So, let's go back to World War II.
[10:30] Okay, in World War II, if you lived in
[10:33] Europe or Asia, it really seemed like
[10:36] the end of the world. Tens of millions
[10:39] of people died in that war. But at the
[10:43] same time, you had a superpower that was
[10:47] emergent, the United States of America.
[10:48] So at the end of World War II, America
[10:50] was so powerful that it was able at the
[10:54] end of World War II to create a new
[10:56] world order and basically finance and
[11:00] defend this new world order called Pax
[11:03] Americana. And we are seeing the last
[11:06] days of Pax Americana. And then you ask
[11:09] yourself, well then let China emerge or
[11:14] maybe Russia will emerge or maybe Israel
[11:17] will will emerge to replace Pax
[11:19] Americana.
[11:20] And unfortunately
[11:23] what we know is that systems in decline,
[11:27] empires in decline do not go willingly.
[11:30] Okay. So the historical analogy I would
[11:32] use is the Bronze Age collapse because
[11:36] the Bronze Age was very similar to this
[11:40] period in our history when the entire
[11:43] world was globalized because in order to
[11:45] make bronze you needed both copper and
[11:47] tin and these places were found in
[11:49] different places of the world and that
[11:51] allowed for global integration. But
[11:54] because of global in integration over
[11:57] time you that led to massive inequality,
[12:01] debt and polarization.
[12:03] And so when the system collapsed, the
[12:05] entire world collapsed. So I I would
[12:08] argue the closest historical analogy
[12:10] that we have
[12:13] um to today is a bronze age collapse.
[12:16] What was life like in the Bronze Age
[12:17] collapse or how was it different pre-B
[12:20] bronze age collapse versus post bronze
[12:22] age collapse? So during the branch
[12:25] collapse what happened was
[12:30] there was a perfect series of crises
[12:33] that caused systematic collapse. Okay.
[12:35] The first was
[12:38] change in weather patterns climate
[12:40] changed which led to famine primarily in
[12:45] Europe. Okay. We have famine and people
[12:47] are starving. What do people do? They
[12:49] migrate. Okay. They migrate to areas
[12:54] that have food and that this this place
[12:57] is primarily going to be Anatolia and
[13:00] Egypt.
[13:01] These migrants
[13:04] overwhelm the systems of Egypt and
[13:08] Anatolia
[13:09] and this would cause a cascading effect
[13:11] where the entire world lost order. These
[13:17] migrants were called the sea peoples and
[13:19] they were destroying traditional
[13:21] hierarchies and authorities.
[13:24] And once that happened then the very
[13:27] fundamental elements of civilization
[13:29] disappear. So if we apply this analogy
[13:33] to today then I'm going to paint for you
[13:35] a scenario
[13:37] uh of what might happen. All right. So
[13:39] we have this war in the Middle East that
[13:42] is only expanding. It's bringing in more
[13:45] and more countries. So, as you may know,
[13:50] um, since we last spoke, basically all
[13:53] of Iran's proxies have been brought into
[13:56] the war. This includes the Houthis,
[13:59] which occupies this part of Yemen.
[14:01] >> So, the Houthis are a group of military
[14:04] that are in favor of Iran.
[14:06] >> The Houthies are an ethnic group in
[14:10] Yemen. And Yemen is a country that is
[14:13] divided according to tribes. The thing
[14:16] about the Houthies is first of all they
[14:18] live in the mountains. So it's almost
[14:20] impossible to dislodge the Houthies.
[14:23] Saudi Arabia be a tried for 5 years. It
[14:25] didn't work. The other thing about the
[14:26] Houthis is they are a Shia tribe people.
[14:31] Now they're Shia Muslim and they're
[14:33] Sunni Muslim. The vast majority of
[14:35] Muslim in the world are Sunni. about 90%
[14:38] of the entire global Muslim population.
[14:41] The Shia are about 10%. And as a result,
[14:44] because they're the the minority, the
[14:46] Shia are much more fanatical than the
[14:50] Sunni. And this has always been
[14:51] historically true. They believe in
[14:53] martyrdom. So in other words, uh the the
[14:56] Houthies will fight to the death.
[14:58] They're not afraid of death. Okay. And
[15:01] the third thing about the Houthies that
[15:02] we need to appreciate is they control
[15:07] this critical
[15:09] choke point called the Bab El Mandad
[15:13] Strait. This is this is the Red Sea. So
[15:16] a lot of trade has to go through the Red
[15:20] Sea. Now what we know is Iran has
[15:23] already closed off the sh of hummus
[15:28] and the easiest and cheapest way for
[15:31] Saudi Arabia to get its oil to East Asia
[15:35] and South South Asia is by the sea. So
[15:41] Saudi Arabia cannot actually transport
[15:43] its oil. Okay. So that's the first group
[15:47] that is now involved in this war.
[15:49] Houthis. Then you have Hezbollah, okay,
[15:53] which is in Lebanon right here. [snorts]
[15:57] And they are now fighting Israel.
[15:59] Hezbollah is also a Shia group. So they
[16:02] are also very fanatical. And then you
[16:04] also have Iraq, the Shia militias that
[16:08] are basically their own independent
[16:10] militaries. So all four are have been
[16:14] brought into the war. You have Iran, you
[16:16] have the Houthis, you have Hezbollah,
[16:19] you have the Shia militia in Iraq. Why
[16:23] is this important? Because they span the
[16:26] entire Middle East. And so we are now
[16:30] seeing expansion of the war and over
[16:33] time what might happen is more and more
[16:35] nations have to be brought into the war
[16:37] to protect their own interests. How is
[16:40] this different from, you know, I grew up
[16:42] with this Iraq war
[16:43] >> and there was lots of conflict in the
[16:44] Middle East. There was always fighting
[16:45] going on and it's it feels like it's
[16:47] been a function of my my childhood is
[16:49] that the Middle East are always fighting
[16:50] in some capacity somewhere and it you
[16:53] know eventually there's a piece in Iraq
[16:57] and the war kind of stops and ISIS is
[16:59] decapitated or whatever and it just kind
[17:01] of moves around a little bit.
[17:02] >> Yeah, great question. But what's
[17:04] happening today is very different from
[17:06] 20 2003. 2003, United States went in to
[17:10] get decapitate Saddam Hussein and his
[17:13] government. And that was easy to do
[17:16] because you had a government that was
[17:18] not very popular amongst uh the people.
[17:22] So, America specializes in shock and awe
[17:26] military tactics.
[17:28] The problem today is you have four
[17:32] different groups. You have the IRGC in
[17:35] Iran. You have the Houthi in Yemen. You
[17:40] have Hezbollah in Lebanon. You have the
[17:43] Shia militia in Iraq. They are
[17:47] decentralized.
[17:48] They are fanatical and they share a
[17:52] similar esquetology. They share a
[17:54] similar religious framework.
[17:57] And as a result, what we know is
[18:00] the United States military is not very
[18:03] good at fighting guerilla insurgents.
[18:07] We know because of what happened in
[18:08] Afghanistan as well as Iran. These two
[18:12] are what is often referred to as TW as
[18:15] fervor wars where the United States
[18:17] spent trillions of dollars over over 20
[18:19] years to try to squash insurgents and
[18:23] they failed miserably. So
[18:26] because these four groups are
[18:28] coordinating but they're decentralized.
[18:31] This means that this war can only expand
[18:35] over time. Now Saudi Arabia is feels
[18:39] threatened by the Houthis. So what Saudi
[18:42] Arabia has done is most recently it's
[18:44] signed something called the Mecca
[18:46] Accords.
[18:48] Turkey and Pakistan. Okay. So Turkey and
[18:53] Pakistan and Saudi Arabia now must come
[18:55] to each other's defense. And it seems to
[18:58] me of these three countries, Saudi
[19:00] Arabia will be the first to invoke this
[19:04] mutual defense pact against the
[19:06] Houthies. So you can see a situation
[19:09] where Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia
[19:11] is brought into war to try to dislodge
[19:14] the Houthies. But we know that the
[19:17] Houthies in a mountain retreat are
[19:20] almost invincible.
[19:22] So this war can only expand. And the
[19:25] Houthies in response what they can do is
[19:28] destroy the energy infrastructure of
[19:30] Saudi Arabia. The Houthies have
[19:32] ballistic missiles. They have drones.
[19:35] And Saudi Arabia is this giant lake of
[19:39] gasoline ready to be blown up or lit up
[19:41] by the Houthies at any time.
[19:44] >> You know, back in the early 2000s, there
[19:45] was the alqaeda, there was ISIS, there
[19:48] was, you know, there was still Hezbollah
[19:50] in Hamas. So, how is how is this
[19:52] different? because there was lots of
[19:54] military militant groups.
[19:55] >> Great question. Okay.
[19:57] Why this is different is there is active
[20:01] coordination amongst these groups. So
[20:04] al-Qaeda, ISIS, they were working
[20:06] separately. But the there are three
[20:09] proxies, okay? You have the Houthis, you
[20:11] have the Hezbollah in Lebanon, you have
[20:13] the Shia militia, they all report back
[20:16] to the IRGC in Iran. And here's the
[20:19] kicker. This is really important. Both
[20:22] China
[20:24] and Russia are supporting Iran in this
[20:28] conflict.
[20:30] China is supporting Iran through the
[20:32] Belone initiative. Basically
[20:34] transporting goods to Iran through this
[20:36] corridor and Russia is supporting Iran
[20:40] through the Caspian Sea. As a result,
[20:43] Iran in theory could fight this war
[20:46] indefinitely. Okay, that's one thing
[20:49] that we have to appreciate. there's a
[20:51] clear alliance in place to make sure
[20:55] that Iran and its proxies can withstand
[20:59] this war. The other thing that's really
[21:02] important for us to appreciate is like
[21:04] the Middle East, it is the heart and
[21:08] center of the petro dollar system. It
[21:10] takes all these barrels of oil in the
[21:15] GCC countries and transports them to
[21:20] India, Pakistan,
[21:24] China,
[21:27] Japan.
[21:28] Okay.
[21:30] And what then happens is the the East
[21:34] Asia takes these barrels of oil energy.
[21:38] Um, could you put the the mirror
[21:40] brothers in Japan?
[21:41] >> What are these little figurines you're
[21:42] asking me to put in Japan?
[21:43] >> So, this represents Japan's contribution
[21:46] to the global economy. So, it takes
[21:48] energy from the Middle East and turns
[21:50] them into manufactured products,
[21:52] consumer electronic products for the
[21:53] world to consume. It makes these in US
[21:56] dollars and China, Japan and the GCC all
[22:00] invest their access savings in the
[22:04] United States which allows United States
[22:07] to focus on innovation to create places
[22:09] like New York City. New York City is
[22:10] also a very specialized area because it
[22:13] basically is a financial center of the
[22:15] world. Okay. So all this is a petro
[22:20] dollar system. As you can see, the
[22:22] system is dependent on free trade. But
[22:26] once the oil stops flowing, then what
[22:31] happens is China, Japan are no longer
[22:34] able to make the manufactured goods they
[22:37] need to export
[22:39] and United States loses all these
[22:42] recycled US dollars.
[22:45] So the three biggest buyers of US
[22:49] treasuries basically the three biggest
[22:52] financiers of the of the US economy
[22:55] basically the AI bubble are Japan the
[22:59] GCC and China. So we will see a
[23:02] cascading effect of theft where maybe in
[23:05] a few months time the system collapses.
[23:08] Do you know what professor? One [snorts]
[23:10] of the reasons why I think it's quite
[23:12] hard for and I'm going to be completely
[23:13] honest. People can take this as they
[23:14] take it, but it's just me being honest.
[23:16] One of the reasons why it's quite hard
[23:17] to [snorts]
[23:19] believe that, you know, the world is is
[23:22] going to collapse and that this is going
[23:24] to be like the Bronze Age collapse. I
[23:27] was I was actually reading about the
[23:28] Bronze Age collapse after you mentioned
[23:29] it. And what I I pulled up here says,
[23:31] "The late Bronze Age collapse was a
[23:33] rapid, violent, and widespread societal
[23:35] breakdown that occurred in the Eastern
[23:36] Mediterranean between approximately
[23:39] 1,200 and 1,150 B.CE. Before the
[23:42] collapse, the region was heavily
[23:43] globalized. Major superpowers like the
[23:46] Egyptians, etc., etc., were deeply inter
[23:48] interconnected through diplomacy, royal
[23:51] marriages, and complex international
[23:53] trade networks. But within a span of
[23:54] just 50 years, almost every significant
[23:56] city in the Eastern Mediterranean was
[23:59] destroyed and many were never rebuilt.
[24:03] And there's a map which I'll throw up on
[24:05] the screen which shows this breakdown. I
[24:09] here's my honesty. As a 34 year old, I
[24:12] have lived a very charmed life.
[24:15] >> Charmed life.
[24:16] >> Yeah.
[24:17] >> As it relates to his, you know, history
[24:19] and the things that happened in history.
[24:21] So when we hear these things that you
[24:23] know the society will break down,
[24:24] there'll be civil collapse, we don't
[24:26] really have a reference point as like
[24:28] Gen Z's and millennials really our
[24:31] parents and their parents they have you
[24:32] know reference points from World War II
[24:34] etc in the 1940s etc but we don't really
[24:36] have them. So it seems all to be quite
[24:38] you know that can't happen to us. Yeah,
[24:40] you're absolutely right. And I think a
[24:42] lot of the issue is
[24:46] the world has been constructed in a way
[24:48] to maintain the privileges of the
[24:53] western populations. An example I use is
[24:57] um you say
[24:59] that we've lived a charm life. Well, if
[25:02] you've been if you lived in Iraq,
[25:06] Afghanistan, these places, you do not
[25:08] live a charm life. Yeah,
[25:09] >> because United States came and attacked
[25:11] you for no particular reason and they
[25:14] destroyed the very infrastructure of
[25:17] your society. Even today, Iraq and
[25:20] Afghanistan are engulfed in political
[25:23] violence and war and political
[25:25] assassinations. And so, you've never
[25:26] known if you were a child in Iraq or
[25:30] Afghanistan and even in Africa, you've
[25:34] you never known peace, stability, and
[25:36] prosperity. So the inequality in the
[25:39] world is stark and we in the west have
[25:44] been extremely privileged to be
[25:46] sheltered from a lot of the chaos in the
[25:49] world. In fact, the US empire is
[25:51] designed to ensure the populations never
[25:54] have to suffer the tragedy and suffering
[25:58] of other people. And what I'm trying to
[26:00] say is this US empire is breaking down
[26:05] and there's nothing that we can do to
[26:07] stop it. So all the stuffing that that
[26:09] we might have seen on television, it is
[26:12] coming to us in our lives and we need to
[26:16] be aware of it.
[26:17] >> When you say it's coming to us in our
[26:19] lives, it's coming to us in our lives.
[26:21] the same political violence, the same
[26:24] chaos, the same political polarization
[26:27] that has infested the rest of the world.
[26:32] Do you think war is coming to our
[26:35] shores? Because we now live in a post
[26:37] new nuclear bomb era.
[26:39] >> Yes.
[26:39] >> And that seems to have created in a
[26:41] weird way a bit of peace, right,
[26:43] >> between superpowers.
[26:44] >> So, I'm going to go to the screen,
[26:46] >> okay? And I'm going to paint you a
[26:49] picture of our global supply chains and
[26:54] what it means for global supply chains
[26:56] to break down using a few maps. And
[27:00] these maps, I hope, will paint a clear
[27:04] and simple picture of what it what is
[27:07] about to come.
[27:07] >> Can I ask you a questions before we go
[27:08] to the screen? Sure. Have you always
[27:10] been pessimistic about the future?
[27:13] >> No.
[27:13] >> When did you become pessimistic about
[27:15] the future?
[27:16] I became very pessimistic about the
[27:19] future after Brexit and the election of
[27:23] Donald Trump
[27:26] because
[27:28] I was an immigrant
[27:30] who grew up in a very poor family. My
[27:33] father was a dishwasher and he was a
[27:35] dishwasher for 30 years before we
[27:36] retired. We're so poor we couldn't even
[27:39] afford a car. We never took any
[27:41] indications. But I worked hard. I got
[27:44] into Yale University, one of the best
[27:47] colleges in the world. And not only
[27:48] that, but I went there on a full
[27:49] scholarship. So from my perspective, the
[27:53] world was perfect. It was a meritocracy.
[27:56] It was a place that rewarded talent and
[27:58] hard work. So I believed
[28:01] that the world was governed by reason,
[28:05] by logic, by science, by truth, by good
[28:09] people.
[28:11] And when Brexit and the election of
[28:14] Donald Trump happened, I was
[28:16] traumatized.
[28:18] Brexit was the British people turning
[28:21] away from globalization. The election of
[28:23] Donald Trump from my perspective was the
[28:28] American rejection of meritocracy, of
[28:32] reason, of truth, of of order. And when
[28:36] that happened, it sort of told me
[28:40] what I believe about the world
[28:43] didn't really work. And when those
[28:47] things happened, that forced me to
[28:51] reflect deeply on
[28:54] why the world was was breaking down. And
[28:56] those events led me to today. Because
[28:59] what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to
[29:02] figure out patterns of history,
[29:05] principles of society
[29:07] that allow us to better understand
[29:09] ourselves. And that's why I drew you
[29:12] this formula because traditionally we
[29:15] understood innovation as maybe coming
[29:17] from universities.
[29:19] And having studied history, having
[29:21] studied global supply chains, I now
[29:23] recognize that no technology just comes
[29:25] from specialization and globalization.
[29:28] And this not only is an analysis of the
[29:31] current world, but it also gives us a
[29:34] framework to predict the future, right?
[29:37] So if in a time of war,
[29:40] commercialization, globalization break
[29:42] down, then in theory, technology should
[29:45] break down as well. Okay? And that's
[29:47] what what what I'm trying to I'm trying
[29:48] to figure out how and why we are we
[29:51] where we are today.
[29:52] >> So, you wanted to draw something on the
[29:54] whiteboard.
[29:54] >> Okay. Right.
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[32:00] >> So this is a summary of the global
[32:03] supply chain network and we can see how
[32:06] it involves the entire world. You are
[32:09] not able to build semiconductors unless
[32:12] you have a globalized economy. So
[32:15] there's been a lot of talk about China
[32:18] controlling the elements, right? So,
[32:21] China manufactures about uh 70% of the
[32:24] world's silicon and rare earths, China
[32:28] controls about 70% of rare earths. What
[32:30] people don't appreciate is it works both
[32:33] ways. Okay? So, China does export a lot
[32:37] of silicon and rare earths, but it also
[32:40] needs to import a lot of helium in order
[32:43] to sustain its semiconductor
[32:45] manufacturing process. The reason why is
[32:48] helium cools these semiconductors in a
[32:52] way um to to allow it for to be
[32:54] manufactured. Okay. So, helium is a
[32:56] cooling agent. Another thing that people
[32:58] don't appreciate is people think that
[33:00] China has a monopoly on rare earths, but
[33:03] America in a place called Spruce Pine,
[33:07] Spruce Pine,
[33:08] North Carolina.
[33:11] This area has monopoly on high quality
[33:15] quartz. It controls about 90% of the
[33:18] world's high quality quarts which you
[33:21] need in the silicon manufacturing
[33:23] process as well. Okay. So if these
[33:27] nations start to stop trading with each
[33:29] each other technology would cease to
[33:31] progress. Now something to keep in mind
[33:35] is it's not just semiconductors that are
[33:37] dependent on the global supply chain.
[33:39] Food is also very dependent on the glo
[33:42] global supply chain. So what we're
[33:44] seeing is a stark contrast between the
[33:47] north and the south. So the north, okay,
[33:52] produces
[33:54] most of the world's fertilizer
[33:58] and the south, okay, primarily Africa,
[34:01] the Middle East and South America, they
[34:04] import a lot of the fertilizer. This map
[34:07] shows it much more clearly. Okay, so
[34:09] ammonia is a very important component of
[34:11] fertilizer. And as you can see, most of
[34:13] the ammonium production plants are
[34:15] actually in the north of the world.
[34:16] Canada, United States, Europe, China,
[34:20] Russia. [snorts] So the south, the
[34:24] global south is dependent on the north
[34:26] for food. In a time of war, when global
[34:30] supply chains break down, the north
[34:32] might lose access to fancy wireless
[34:36] smartphones. The south will face famine.
[34:38] Okay? Why is this important?
[34:41] because the world is rife with conflict.
[34:45] The main issue that we're we will face
[34:48] next 20 years is not oil. It's actually
[34:50] water. All right. So, this map that
[34:54] we're seeing right now is actually
[34:56] telling us where the next major
[34:59] geopolitical flash points are. So
[35:02] basically if you see red on the map it
[35:08] means this place has water scarcity
[35:11] issues and the red issues tell us
[35:14] exactly where wars will erupt. Okay. So,
[35:19] even the United States, if you look at
[35:21] the western part of the United States,
[35:22] they do have water scarcity issues. And
[35:25] actually, if you go to uh the western
[35:27] United States, Colorado, California,
[35:29] Arizona, these places, they're fighting
[35:31] over the Colorado River because the
[35:35] Colorado River is what supplies most of
[35:37] their water. You go to the Middle East
[35:40] and you know that the Middle East is
[35:44] almost like a dynamite ready to explode.
[35:47] And what this war will do is aggravate
[35:49] all the tensions in the Middle East.
[35:52] India itself is facing water shortages
[35:56] which brings it into conflict with
[35:58] China. Okay. So this one map if you can
[36:00] just see it, it basically tells you um
[36:04] where the next geopolitical flash points
[36:06] will be. It means a place that is most
[36:08] likely to go to war or have conflict or
[36:11] political violence with the next 20
[36:13] years. Okay. But also here is north uh
[36:18] east Asia. Japan is here. North Korea is
[36:22] here. Okay. So that's another major
[36:24] flash point. So this is what over the
[36:27] next 20 years where war is most likely
[36:30] to break out. Okay. But what's important
[36:32] to appreciate is once war breaks out
[36:35] there are third order effects
[36:38] um causing conflict to spread around the
[36:41] world. Okay. This is a really important
[36:45] map for us to appreciate as well. This
[36:47] map tells us fertility rates around the
[36:50] world. As you can see, Africa has the
[36:54] world's highest fertility rate followed
[36:57] by the Middle East. Okay.
[37:00] >> So, they're having the most children per
[37:02] couples.
[37:02] >> That's right. Why is this a problem?
[37:04] Because if you go back to the previous
[37:05] map, this area is also where there is
[37:08] the most geopolitical tension. And so if
[37:11] there are more and more children, young
[37:13] people being born here, they have no
[37:15] choice but to migrate. And where will
[37:17] they migrate? Probably to Europe. And
[37:20] you're like, well, okay, well then what
[37:25] Europe should do is turtle up. Europe
[37:29] should build walls and prevent these
[37:32] migrants from reaching Europe. But
[37:34] Europe has its own problem, which is the
[37:38] aging crisis. Okay. So, look at what's
[37:41] happening where the fastest aging
[37:43] populations are in fact in the most
[37:47] developed nations including Japan,
[37:50] Europe, and North America. So, if you
[37:55] have an aging population, you need to
[37:57] provide cheap health care, nursing. What
[38:01] What does that mean? It means you have
[38:02] to let in more immigrants in order to
[38:04] surface
[38:05] the aging population.
[38:08] And what will happen then is domestic
[38:11] conflict where you have more migration
[38:14] into western societies which brings them
[38:17] into conflict with the native
[38:18] populations and therefore it is possible
[38:21] you have civil war as well as political
[38:24] violence
[38:26] and even the possibility of revolution.
[38:31] Okay. So these maps collectively paint a
[38:36] very grim picture of the world that
[38:40] we're we're living in.
[38:41] >> On this page here about immigration
[38:44] causing civil war political violence,
[38:46] revolution, won't it just be the case as
[38:49] we're seeing that these western
[38:51] societies will increas
[38:53] right-wing political parties, which is
[38:56] kind of what we're seeing. We're seeing,
[38:57] you know, parties in the UK like reform
[38:59] surge. I think there was news yesterday
[39:01] in Germany of the the political party
[39:03] there. We're seeing I mean we're seeing
[39:04] the same in the United States as well.
[39:06] >> That that's a fantastic point. That's
[39:08] that's exactly what we're seeing. We're
[39:09] seeing the AFD surge in Germany. You
[39:12] know, MAGA being very dominant in the
[39:15] United States. We're seeing Vox in
[39:17] Spain. So, in theory, what's going to
[39:20] happen is these countries become much
[39:22] more right-wing and then they block out
[39:25] immigration because that that is their
[39:27] main policy platform. And that should
[39:29] stop the civil war.
[39:31] >> The problem is what do you do about your
[39:34] aging population?
[39:35] >> Robots.
[39:36] >> Exactly. Right. That's what you would
[39:38] think. But what we're seeing is a
[39:40] breakdown in global supply chains.
[39:41] Robots depend on copper,
[39:46] right? Which you get from Chile, Peru,
[39:51] China, Australia. These are pretty far
[39:53] away places from Europe and United
[39:56] States, right? You also need lithium
[39:59] which you get from the lithium triangle
[40:01] again pretty far away. You also need
[40:05] silicon which is u mainly manufactured
[40:09] in China. You need rare earths which
[40:11] again is really manufactured in China.
[40:13] You have this you have this huge issue
[40:14] where in theory you could use robots but
[40:17] in the but when global supply chain
[40:19] breaks down you have to figure out the
[40:21] cheapest way to resolve the labor issue
[40:23] and the cheapest solution is
[40:26] immigration. Right? People I had to say
[40:28] this, but people are much cheaper and
[40:31] much more expendable than robots.
[40:36] So,
[40:38] I know this is a bit scary. I know this
[40:43] is really depressing, okay? But
[40:47] what if the United States were able to
[40:50] win this war in Iran and conduct regime
[40:55] change? Then our problems are solved.
[40:59] Right now, Iran is under the control of
[41:04] the United States and we're back to
[41:08] globalization where oil is able to flow
[41:11] to South uh Asia to East Asia and then
[41:17] they manufacture goods and then recycle
[41:20] their profits into the economy. And with
[41:24] all this money, AI is able to innovate
[41:27] to a point where we achieve AGI and then
[41:30] we solve all the world's problems. Okay.
[41:33] So what happens next with this whole
[41:36] Iran situation?
[41:38] >> So unfortunately
[41:40] it has now des momentum. All right. So
[41:44] let me explain what is most likely to
[41:46] happen. Okay. So you have Iran
[41:52] and you are now controlling the Shamus,
[41:53] right? You have the Houthis and they
[41:56] control the Bao and Mandad Strait. You
[42:00] have Hespala which can threaten the Suez
[42:02] Canal. You have the Shia militias
[42:06] that can also threaten the
[42:08] Mediterranean. Right? From a game theory
[42:11] perspective,
[42:13] what Iran should do next is take the
[42:17] initiative and disrupt all global trade.
[42:21] And the reason why is the US empire is
[42:25] based on the petro dollar. It's based on
[42:27] global trade. When you disrupt global
[42:30] trade at the same time, there's no way
[42:33] for the United States to respond.
[42:35] >> How could they disrupt global trade?
[42:37] what they can do is start to attack
[42:40] randomly. Okay. So what who can do is
[42:45] attack Saudi Arabia?
[42:47] Um Iraq can um attack Israel. Iran can
[42:53] attack the moves. Uh Hezbollah can
[42:56] attack the Sewish canal. Okay? And why
[42:58] you do that is you're creating
[43:00] uncertainty and chaos in the global
[43:03] trade system. Why is that important?
[43:06] Because the global trade system is built
[43:08] on confidence
[43:11] and that's what drives insurance. Okay?
[43:13] So if you're an insurance company,
[43:14] you're like, "Oh my god, these countries
[43:16] are sorry, these [snorts] actors are
[43:18] completely out of control. The United
[43:19] States has lost control over the
[43:21] situation." You can no longer ensure
[43:24] global shipping. If you can't ensure
[43:27] global shipping, global shipping ceases
[43:29] to work. All right? So this is a madman
[43:33] theory and this is Iran's best play
[43:36] moving forward. And the reason why is
[43:38] the United States does not have the
[43:41] military capacity to respond to a
[43:45] coordinated random strike across the
[43:48] Middle East.
[43:48] >> So is this your prediction? Is this what
[43:50] happens next?
[43:51] >> I don't want to make this prediction
[43:53] just because there are lots of factors I
[43:55] do not know. Okay. So, so first of all,
[43:58] I don't know politically what the
[44:01] situation is in Iran. Certainly, the
[44:03] IRGC would want to do this, but there
[44:06] are political factions within Iran who
[44:09] would think this is too provocative, and
[44:11] it's possible the entire world would
[44:13] unite against Iran if Iran were to do
[44:16] this.
[44:17] >> So, what is your prediction in terms of
[44:19] Iran and what happens next?
[44:20] >> My prediction is this will only
[44:23] escalate. How it will escalate, I don't
[44:26] know. Okay. But the trump card to use a
[44:30] pun for Iran is to start to disrupt
[44:35] global trade. But United States has a
[44:38] response and this response is to attack
[44:44] Iran's critical civil infrastructure
[44:47] which includes dissalination plants and
[44:50] power plants. And this would be worse
[44:53] than using a nuclear weapon on Iran
[44:55] because without power plants, the people
[44:58] in Tran, a city of about 10 million
[45:00] people, they face starvation because a
[45:02] lot of this food is refrigerated.
[45:05] This is how the war becomes almost
[45:09] civilization destroying. If Iran were to
[45:12] completely disrupt global trade and if
[45:14] the United States were to destroy the
[45:16] power plants of Iran,
[45:18] >> obviously that would be horrific and uh
[45:20] sort of inconceivably horrifying for the
[45:22] people that live in Iran, the innocent
[45:23] people that are caught in the middle of
[45:24] this. You don't think that the US will
[45:26] actually do that though, right?
[45:28] >> I think the United States will be forced
[45:30] to do it.
[45:30] >> You think they'll be forced to do it?
[45:31] >> Yes. According to game theory, they will
[45:33] be forced to behave like this because
[45:36] we need to appreciate
[45:39] this formula where the more power you
[45:43] have, the less imagination, empathy you
[45:46] have. You and so the idea is you don't
[45:50] think killing millions of Iranians
[45:53] is a too heavy a price. It's all worth
[45:57] it if you can maintain the empire. The
[46:00] hubris
[46:02] leads you to believe that the gods favor
[46:04] you and you ultimately win and triumph
[46:07] in this great struggle.
[46:10] >> Don't you create a huge migration crisis
[46:12] where people start fleeing from Iran up
[46:15] into Europe because they are starving.
[46:19] >> Exactly. Right. Not just Iran, but
[46:22] Africa as well because they've lost
[46:23] access to cheap energy and fertilizer.
[46:25] So you have all this migration into
[46:29] Europe which would overwhelm European
[46:33] the European social fabric which would
[46:35] overwhelm the European state. But
[46:39] unfortunately, this has been happening
[46:42] at a much slower pace ever since 2014
[46:45] when for whatever reason the United
[46:47] States chose to destroy
[46:51] Libya and cause civil war in Syria which
[46:54] caused millions to migrate into Europe.
[46:57] And as you remember the Europeans in the
[47:00] generosity accepted all these migrants
[47:02] which is leading which has led to
[47:06] tremendous social friction and political
[47:07] tension in Europe today.
[47:08] >> So your prediction here if we conclude
[47:10] then is that the US won't win this quote
[47:12] unquote war in the Middle East because
[47:14] they can't defeat Iran and its proxies.
[47:17] But also your conclusion is that this is
[47:19] going to continue to escalate in the
[47:21] Middle East.
[47:21] >> Yes. And already what we're seeing are
[47:24] other actors being drawn into the war.
[47:27] So the so the most recent news is South
[47:29] Korea has authorized a naval contingent
[47:32] to go and try to secure the home moves.
[47:34] >> What would you do if you were Donald
[47:36] Trump?
[47:39] [laughter]
[47:39] >> I mean [gasps] um what would I do if I
[47:42] were Donald Trump? I would push all in.
[47:45] I would start attacking power plants in
[47:48] uh Iran because
[47:51] if I take any half measures,
[47:54] I would just look weak and I'm only
[47:56] going to create more problems. I would
[47:58] only incentivize
[48:00] Iran and its allies to be more
[48:03] provocative, to be more aggressive. So
[48:06] if I'm Donald Trump and I'm in this
[48:08] situation, I would just push all in.
[48:10] >> You would end up killing millions of
[48:12] Iranians theoretically.
[48:14] Well, I start this war, right? Then I
[48:18] have to win this war because I can't
[48:20] lose this war. I refuse to lose this
[48:22] war. I mean, again, I I understand the
[48:25] concerns. Okay? But if you want to
[48:27] understand how these lead leaders think,
[48:29] this formula gives you
[48:32] the best window into into the
[48:35] psychology, which is because of so much
[48:37] power, they lose the capacity to imagine
[48:40] different possibilities and have empathy
[48:42] for the suffering of the people in the
[48:44] world.
[48:45] >> Couldn't they just back out? Couldn't
[48:47] they just couldn't Donald Trump just say
[48:48] do a big press conference where he says,
[48:50] "We won this war in Iran. We've
[48:51] destroyed their military, their naval
[48:52] bases. It's done. and Iran will no
[48:55] longer have a nuclear weapons.
[48:57] >> The entire petro dollar system is
[49:00] premised on two things. The US dollar as
[49:03] the world reserve currency and the aura
[49:08] of inevitability and invincibility of
[49:10] the US military.
[49:11] >> If they look like they are beatable,
[49:14] then the the US as its image is
[49:17] sufficiently tarnished.
[49:19] >> Right.
[49:21] What are your predictions? I've been
[49:22] dying to know. So I brought to you three
[49:25] predictions and because we are so close
[49:28] to the anniversary of 911 in New York
[49:31] City um I um structured these
[49:35] predictions around the anniversary and
[49:37] so these will be three fun but
[49:40] horrifying predictions. Okay. All right.
[49:42] So my prediction number one is there
[49:45] will be a siege of New York City. All
[49:47] right. So let me explain my logic. I was
[49:50] here last time and I said that Donald
[49:53] Trump will get a third term and he's
[49:56] been joking about it. He's been talking
[49:58] a lot about it. He's been socialing
[50:02] about it. And so let's imagine what
[50:07] happens if Trump gets a third term.
[50:10] Well, you would have a lot of pissed-off
[50:12] people, especially in the major cities
[50:15] of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston,
[50:18] Chicago, and New York City. We should
[50:21] probably just pause there because there
[50:22] is a a constitutional ban on serving
[50:26] three terms. The primary barrier being
[50:28] the 22nd amendment, which was ratified
[50:31] in 1951 by Franklin D. Roosevelt, um,
[50:34] who won four elections. It establishes a
[50:36] strict term limit for the presidency and
[50:38] the text in the 22nd amendment
[50:40] explicitly says no person shall be
[50:42] elected to the office of the president
[50:43] more than twice.
[50:46] So how could that happen? Well,
[50:50] let's just say there is a national
[50:52] emergency
[50:54] and the president is forced to suspend
[50:57] the constitution.
[50:59] Then he could theoretically
[51:02] have his third term. It's also possible
[51:05] that in 2028 he decides to run as the
[51:08] vice president and have his son Don Jr.
[51:13] run at the top of the ticket and then
[51:15] once the election is over then Don Jr.
[51:19] would resign and then Donald Trump would
[51:22] become the president and there's nothing
[51:24] in the constitution that prevents him
[51:26] from doing that. So there are two
[51:28] possibilities. There isn't anything in
[51:30] the constitution that allows the US
[51:32] president to suspend the constitution in
[51:34] a in a time of a national emergency.
[51:37] >> It's president. Um so for example during
[51:39] the American civil war Iran Lincoln was
[51:42] able to suspend habius corpus
[51:45] which is a constitutional right in the
[51:47] US constitution.
[51:49] And during World War II Franklin Delano
[51:53] Roosevelt also did many unconscious
[51:55] things. for example, interning the
[51:57] Japanese population uh in caps. [snorts]
[52:00] There's nothing the Supreme Court could
[52:01] do against uh this uh because a lot of
[52:06] US politics is convention. It's agreed
[52:09] upon norms. But if a US president is
[52:13] like, well, screw these conventions.
[52:17] There's nothing anyone else can do about
[52:18] it. All right. So let's imagine, okay,
[52:22] just for for the sake of this argument,
[52:24] Trump gets a third term. What will
[52:26] happen is these cities that are
[52:29] democratic
[52:30] will be an open revolt, meaning they
[52:32] will refuse to pay taxes to the federal
[52:34] government, but they will also not
[52:36] welcome ICE federal agents into their
[52:38] cities,
[52:40] which creates conflict between local law
[52:43] enforcement and federal law enforcement.
[52:46] And historically, if that were to happen
[52:48] then the president, US president usually
[52:51] thinks that he has responsibility to
[52:53] quash this insurrection, right? And so
[52:57] this would over time lead to the siege
[53:00] of New York City where may maybe federal
[53:04] forces along with possibly militias from
[53:07] other states, possibly red states that
[53:10] favor Trump. They would try to besiege
[53:12] New York City by cutting off the food
[53:15] supply and water supply to New York
[53:16] City. And this will be a conflict that
[53:19] could go on for years and years.
[53:21] >> And what year would that take place?
[53:23] 2028.
[53:25] It could happen right after um Trump
[53:28] secures his third term.
[53:29] >> Do you think Trump is going to have a
[53:30] third term?
[53:32] >> Um do you want to bet?
[53:33] >> Yeah,
[53:34] >> I think he'll get a third term.
[53:36] >> How much you want to bet?
[53:36] >> Let's take a friend bet and say $100.
[53:39] >> Do you know said this before, but I
[53:41] actually did have a bet with two random
[53:43] guys on Facebook. I don't use Facebook,
[53:45] but I had to bet with two random guys on
[53:47] Facebook a couple of years ago. They
[53:48] told me that after Donald Trump had lost
[53:51] the election to Joe Biden, they told me
[53:53] that he was going to stay in power. And
[53:55] so I said, "There's no way he stays in
[53:56] power."
[53:57] >> And they said, "No, he will." So they
[53:58] and then they offered me a bet. They
[54:00] said, "£1,000 each. We bet you he's
[54:02] going to stay in power." They were like
[54:03] queuing on people. And I said, "Fine."
[54:05] And they actually did pay me when he he
[54:07] came out of power. They they transferred
[54:08] me $1,000 each. I gave it to charity.
[54:10] But so I'm more than happy to make
[54:11] another bet if you want to make a bet.
[54:12] >> Yeah, let's do it. $100. $100.
[54:14] >> $100. And you're betting that Trump gets
[54:16] a third term?
[54:17] >> Yes. I think he'll be in power after
[54:19] 2028. Is that fair? Like like he'll be
[54:22] in power after 2028.
[54:23] >> When's the election?
[54:24] >> Well, the election should be November
[54:26] 4th, 2028.
[54:28] But I I didn't say he would win the
[54:29] election. I I just said he he would get
[54:30] a third term.
[54:31] >> So, you're saying that he will refuse to
[54:34] leave office or find another way to
[54:37] remain president beyond the date of the
[54:40] inauguration?
[54:41] >> Yes. I'm saying that uh on January 21,
[54:44] 2029, Trump will still be in the White
[54:46] House. Okay, I'll take that bet.
[54:48] >> Okay,
[54:48] >> if everyone's clear. And please do uh
[54:50] remind me to cash in, lads.
[54:52] >> $100.
[54:53] >> Okay, [laughter] $100 may not be worth
[54:55] anything at that time, but that's $100.
[54:57] Okay.
[54:58] >> Okay.
[54:58] >> All right. So, again, we are just
[55:01] assuming
[55:02] for the sake of argument that Trump is
[55:04] in office in his third term. There will
[55:06] be political violence uh across United
[55:09] States, primarily in New York City. And
[55:12] if the federal authority is being
[55:15] challenged by a city or lo local state
[55:18] authority, then the president will take
[55:20] this very seriously and send in forces
[55:22] to quash this insurrection. Maybe other
[55:26] cities will be much more compliant. But
[55:29] New York City has a very charismatic
[55:31] mayor in Zohan Madani and New Yorkers.
[55:35] You don't want to mess with New Yorkers.
[55:36] When they get angry, they get really,
[55:38] really angry. So, so this I think uh is
[55:43] uh very likely if Trump gets a third
[55:44] term, there'd be a siege in New York
[55:46] City.
[55:46] >> He would almost [snorts] be 83 years
[55:48] old.
[55:49] >> I mean, we say that, but like the amount
[55:52] of energy he has, right? The fact of the
[55:54] matter is the guy eats cheeseburgers
[55:58] every day. He gives a press conference
[56:01] almost every day. He's always on social
[56:03] media tweeting out something stupid. For
[56:05] example, he's tweeted out that, you
[56:07] know, all of North America is now the
[56:09] USA. I'm not sure if you've seen that
[56:11] yet. And he's talking about taking over
[56:15] Canada and Greenland and Cuba. So, I
[56:18] don't know where he gets his his energy,
[56:20] but he seems really energetic.
[56:22] I'm not sure if you've ever interviewed
[56:24] Obama.
[56:25] >> Michelle Obama.
[56:26] >> Okay. But like if you just look at the
[56:27] picture of Obama in 2008, he was a
[56:31] really handsome,
[56:33] really young, very vibrant man in 2008.
[56:38] You fast forward eight years and he came
[56:40] out just decrepit. Okay, he he was he
[56:44] had aged like at least 20 years in his
[56:46] office. [snorts] Donald Trump, for
[56:49] whatever reason,
[56:51] has not aged that much.
[56:54] hair dye and fake tan.
[56:57] >> He So, there's something really weird
[57:00] about Donald Trump, which is a lot of US
[57:04] journalists in Washington DC have his
[57:06] direct personal cell phone number and
[57:09] they can call him and they will talk for
[57:11] an hour.
[57:13] Like the guy is the president of the
[57:15] United States. And if you are just an
[57:19] average Washington journalist, you can
[57:22] call him and talk to him for for an hour
[57:24] a day. There are journalists who go to
[57:26] the White House to interview him and
[57:28] says like we try to get we try to like
[57:30] leave like an hour ago, but he he made
[57:32] us stay and talk to him some more. He
[57:34] would not let us leave. So I don't know
[57:36] where he gets his energy from, but he's
[57:38] extreme extremely energetic and he loves
[57:42] that attention.
[57:44] >> Okay. What's prediction number two?
[57:46] >> So again, we are approaching the
[57:49] anniversary of 911 and there are a lot
[57:52] of people who fear there will be another
[57:56] 911 attack on the United States just
[57:59] because you have a lot of actors that
[58:01] are very angry at the United States and
[58:05] who may want to seek vengeance against
[58:08] the American people. In that case, if
[58:10] there is another 911 attack on the
[58:13] United States, I believe it will be an
[58:16] attack on the US financial
[58:19] infrastructure.
[58:20] Okay. So, let me explain my reasoning.
[58:22] What was 911? 911 was an act committed
[58:26] by terrorists in order to traumatize the
[58:29] population into self-destructive
[58:31] violence.
[58:33] Is that a fair statement?
[58:34] >> I don't really know. Is that was that
[58:36] the
[58:36] >> So, let's parse the statement. 911 was
[58:41] an attempt to traumatize the American
[58:44] population into selfdestructive
[58:47] violence. What I mean by that is you're
[58:49] taking the symbols of American power,
[58:51] which are like these airplanes
[58:53] >> as well as the Twin Towers. These are
[58:55] symbols of American power
[58:56] >> and the Pentagon.
[58:58] >> And the Pentagon and the White House and
[59:01] you're destroying them.
[59:03] And for the longest time, American
[59:06] people believed that these are symbols
[59:09] of American invisibility, our planes,
[59:12] our the Pentagon, the Twin Towers. And
[59:15] to see them destroyed like that would
[59:17] traumatize the population. In fact, it
[59:19] did traumatize many, many people.
[59:23] And the idea is you traumatize them into
[59:26] a self-destructive violence, which means
[59:28] like they want vengeance. And so what
[59:30] did they do? They went to the Middle
[59:32] East, fought against the Taliban and
[59:34] Afghanistan, then went to attack Iraq,
[59:37] then this war spread to Syria, Libya,
[59:40] and we can say that these 20 years of
[59:43] these forever wars in the Middle East
[59:45] have been very destructive for the
[59:46] United States. It's caused a huge fiscal
[59:49] deficit. It's caused uh the American
[59:52] military to lose a lot of prestige. It's
[59:54] caused a lot of corruption in Washington
[59:56] DC. It's been very bad for the United
[59:58] States. All right. So, if you're at the
[60:01] terrorist and you look at 911, you're
[60:02] like, "Okay, well, I want to do the same
[60:04] thing, which is like I want to
[60:06] traumatize people into self-destructive
[60:08] violence. How can I do so? Well, I need
[60:11] to traumatize them, right? Me flying
[60:15] planes into the new the the new twin
[60:18] towers doesn't do that because people
[60:19] are now used to they've they've been
[60:21] normalized into this sort of violence.
[60:25] So how can I induce trauma into people?
[60:30] Well, there are different possibilities
[60:32] you can use, right? So let's do a
[60:34] thought experiment. What would happen if
[60:38] one day you open your iPhone and you're
[60:42] looking to
[60:44] buy a coffee?
[60:46] Well, you scan your iPhone and it
[60:50] doesn't read and you're like, well,
[60:52] there might be a problem with the bank.
[60:53] You call the bank. you can't get food to
[60:54] the bag. And like after hours and hours
[60:57] of frantic anxiety, you finally
[60:59] recognize that there's an attack on
[61:03] critical US financial data servers. And
[61:06] so all the money in your bank account
[61:09] has been wiped out and they don't know
[61:11] when or how long it will take them to
[61:13] retrieve it. Would you feel
[61:17] >> concern?
[61:18] I would say you would feel more than
[61:20] concern. I would say you would feel a
[61:21] lot of anger and anxiety and
[61:24] frustration.
[61:24] >> That must be hard to do. Surely taking
[61:27] out the financial infrastructure for
[61:28] everybody for a long enough period of
[61:31] time where they start to feel real world
[61:33] consequences.
[61:33] >> Would you say 911 was hard to do?
[61:36] >> Yeah,
[61:37] >> I would say so as well. I can possibly
[61:39] imagine them doing this. So there is
[61:42] certain creativity to these people and I
[61:47] would not rule that out. But I'm just
[61:49] saying if another 911 happens, it is
[61:51] possible what we'll see is the
[61:55] destruction of the US financial
[61:58] infrastructure, which would drive
[62:00] millions of people into a mad frenzy.
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[63:16] now. You said to me at the top of the
[63:18] conversation you're having difficulty
[63:19] getting back into the United States
[63:21] recently.
[63:22] >> Yes. What do you mean by that?
[63:24] >> So I think there are a lot of people who
[63:27] do not like what I'm saying. I would say
[63:29] I am one of the most polarizing figures
[63:32] in the world right now. So, uh, the
[63:35] story is that the Iran war happened in
[63:39] March and it made me famous and I was
[63:44] really afraid that this fame would annoy
[63:48] and frustrate a lot of Americans and so
[63:51] I uh decided that I should not actually
[63:54] go to United States at this point
[63:55] because it's most likely that I come
[63:57] here and I could be held in detention by
[64:00] customs. I could be deported. And so
[64:03] that time period was uh extremely um
[64:08] scary for me. And I I refused all offers
[64:12] to come to United States. There were
[64:13] quite a few people who wanted me to fly
[64:14] United States to be interviewed. So then
[64:17] what happened is over the summer the war
[64:19] started to die down. thought, okay, let
[64:21] me fly to Canada where my family is. And
[64:24] I'm in Toronto and I'm going to try to
[64:28] enter United States by ear from Toronto.
[64:31] So on August 5th, I went to to the
[64:34] Toronto airport, Pearson. It was like
[64:36] 7:00 in the morning because I had an
[64:37] early flight to Los Angeles. [snorts] I
[64:40] told them that I was going to go on the
[64:41] Theo Von show for and I'll be in the
[64:43] United States for 2 weeks. Uh which was
[64:46] all true. So, so when when I'm at
[64:49] customs, the immigration officer asked
[64:52] me a lot of questions, but I I handle
[64:53] all these questions pretty smoothly.
[64:55] Then he asked me, "Do you have a travel
[64:57] letter for your son?" Because my son
[64:59] Chris, who's 8 years old, he's traveling
[65:01] with me. And I'm like, "What is a travel
[65:03] letter?" And again, this this like 7:00
[65:05] in the morning, so my brain's not
[65:06] working. He's like, "Call your wife."
[65:09] Like, "Okay." So, I try to call my wife.
[65:11] My wife is in the shower. And so then
[65:14] the immigration officer says, "Okay, you
[65:16] have you have to go into secondary to be
[65:18] interrogated to make sure that your son
[65:20] Chris is traveling with you willingly."
[65:23] So we go to we go to into secondary and
[65:25] it's like 7:00 in the morning and my
[65:26] flight's at 8:30 and we're waiting for
[65:28] like an hour and I'm freaking out
[65:31] because it seems like we're we'll miss
[65:33] our flight. And during this hour I'm
[65:35] texting my wife and she's given me the
[65:38] birth certificate. She's given me all
[65:40] the materials I need to prove that this
[65:41] son that Chris is is my son. And then um
[65:45] at the very last minute we get called
[65:46] and a minute a minute I'm able to
[65:48] resolve the issue. And I tell him I'm
[65:50] going to go on the field von show and uh
[65:53] I'll be there for two weeks.
[65:56] So, I'm in the United States and I get
[65:58] contact from other podcasts to do
[66:01] interviews and I travel around the
[66:03] United States and I I forget about the
[66:06] two week promise to the um immigration
[66:09] authorities because uh I'm not sure if
[66:11] you know the law but I'm Canadian I'm
[66:13] I'm a Canadian citizen and therefore I
[66:15] don't need a visa to come United States.
[66:17] You know, if if you say I'm coming for
[66:18] two weeks but you stay a month, it's
[66:20] usually not an issue. I go back to
[66:23] Toronto and I come back to do this
[66:24] podcast. And so yesterday
[66:28] I am put in yesterday I'm ready. Okay. I
[66:31] have my travel letter. I have my son's
[66:34] birth birth certificate and I go to
[66:36] immigration officer and they still put
[66:37] me in uh secondary. But basically, I
[66:40] think what happened was
[66:42] I said certain things during my podcast
[66:45] interviews that piss off some really
[66:48] powerful people in the United States. A
[66:52] lot of things that I said were related
[66:54] to something called the clean brick
[66:55] memo, which you have. The Queen Greek
[66:58] memo was published in 1996
[67:02] and it laid out a plan for how Israel
[67:05] can become the dominant hegeimad in the
[67:08] Middle East. It's written by a study
[67:11] group and part of the study group there
[67:13] were two individuals. They were Richard
[67:15] Pearl and others five. These two would
[67:21] in the George W administration sorry
[67:23] George W. Bush administration go working
[67:27] in the Pentagon and these two along with
[67:28] Paul Wolfitz were the chief architects
[67:31] of Iraq war. So I named these people and
[67:35] I explained how this war in Iran follows
[67:38] from the clean brick memo and the goal
[67:39] is to establish Israel as the regional
[67:41] hedgeimon and I think this is what got
[67:44] me into a lot of trouble.
[67:45] >> Why do you think that got you into a lot
[67:47] of trouble?
[67:47] >> Because I'm a Canadian. when I come into
[67:50] the country, they usually don't bother
[67:51] me. And so for them to question me, I
[67:57] think it was because some top officials
[68:01] basically requested that I be put in
[68:03] secondary every time I come to the
[68:04] United States. And I I also believe this
[68:06] because I have a friend Max Bumantho who
[68:09] is a very good US journalist and he was
[68:12] in Iran covering Kam's funeral. In
[68:16] response um a social media influencer
[68:20] named Laura Loomer
[68:23] demanded his arrest. And so when
[68:26] Maxville came into the country and he is
[68:29] a US citizen by the way, his devices
[68:31] were confiscated.
[68:34] And now Max Bumo is suing the Department
[68:37] of Homeland Security for
[68:40] illegally uh confiscating his devices.
[68:44] And so I think that we live in a time
[68:46] when unfortunately the empire is in
[68:49] decline and because of hubris and
[68:52] arrogance they are trying to silence
[68:54] their critics rather than accept our
[68:57] constructive criticisms.
[69:00] >> Okay. So it's a theory.
[69:01] >> Absolutely. Right. They never told me
[69:03] why I was put in secondary, but he
[69:06] hinted at me that every time I come to
[69:09] United States, I will be put into
[69:12] secondary to make sure that I'm coming
[69:15] United States for legitimate reasons.
[69:17] Also, he hitted at me that it is
[69:19] possible that once my I94 expires in 6
[69:22] months, they will not renew it, meaning
[69:24] they will not let allow me in the
[69:25] country anymore. I hope I come back to
[69:28] United States. I I have the deepest
[69:30] admiration for the American people. I
[69:32] think that the Americans are the most
[69:34] open and generous people in the world.
[69:36] But at the same time, I do appreciate
[69:39] that we are living in very interesting
[69:42] times.
[69:44] >> Prediction three.
[69:45] >> Okay. My third prediction
[69:47] is that
[69:49] Lionel Messi will become president of
[69:51] Argentina.
[69:53] >> Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that.
[69:54] >> Yeah. So I wanted three new predictions
[69:56] that were fun and interesting for us to
[69:59] uh discuss. So why I make this
[70:01] prediction is
[70:04] that Argentina
[70:06] is working very closely with the United
[70:08] States and Israel at this moment. You
[70:12] are a British citizen, so you will
[70:14] appreciate that
[70:16] Argentina
[70:18] has recently demanded the return of the
[70:20] Faullands.
[70:22] And Donald Trump has voiced support to
[70:27] Argentina.
[70:29] So I'm asking myself, why are they so
[70:32] concerned about the Folklands?
[70:35] And not only that, but if you've been
[70:38] following the news, Hav Malay has become
[70:41] very close with Benjamin Benjamin
[70:42] Netanyahu. Argentina and Israel have
[70:45] very strong relations. In fact,
[70:48] Argentina is welcoming Israeli
[70:50] investment and immigration into
[70:54] Argentina.
[70:56] And apparently if you are an Israeli
[70:58] citizen and you go into Argentina and
[71:01] again you can fact check this but from
[71:03] what I understand you have immediate
[71:05] access to their healthcare as well as
[71:06] pension which makes actually no sense
[71:09] because they're not Argentina citizens
[71:10] right so it seems very much that
[71:13] Argentina is working very close with
[71:16] Israel and the United States and the
[71:19] reason why why I think that is and
[71:21] Argentina are working very close
[71:22] together is right now there's almost a
[71:25] civil war in Israel, when Misianic Jews
[71:29] who believe this war in the Middle East
[71:33] will usher in the end times and the
[71:34] coming of the Messiah, and secular Jews
[71:37] who are like, "These people are insane."
[71:40] And so, the only way to resolve this
[71:42] conflict is by exporting secular Jews
[71:46] elsewhere. And it seems to me, um,
[71:48] Argentina is a very good place to export
[71:51] them. So, but then you're like, okay,
[71:54] how do you get the people of Argentina
[71:57] to accept this massive immigration into
[72:02] into Argentina from Israel? Because
[72:03] Israel is not very popular in Argentina.
[72:07] I think the best way is to make Lionelo
[72:10] Messi the president of Argentina and his
[72:14] popularity will be enough to let all
[72:17] these Israelis into the country. Him as
[72:20] well as the reclaiming of the Faulland
[72:22] Islands, right? These two things, you
[72:24] know, the God of Argentina becomes
[72:27] president and Argentina reclaims the
[72:29] Faullands from the British. And I'm I
[72:32] apologize to you as as a British
[72:34] citizen.
[72:35] >> It's okay. I like Missy. Um, you you
[72:38] also mentioned to me that you think
[72:39] Japan is going to go to war with China.
[72:41] Well, China is going to go to war with
[72:42] Japan.
[72:42] >> Yes.
[72:43] >> What makes you think that?
[72:44] >> Well, because every Chinese believes
[72:46] this. [laughter]
[72:47] >> Yes. So, it's the funniest thing, but
[72:48] like for the longest time, people
[72:51] believe that China will eventually
[72:54] invade Taiwan. This is what's very
[72:56] commonly accepted in the West. But if
[73:01] you actually go to China, no Chinese
[73:03] actually believes this and no Taiwanese
[73:05] actually believes this because um this
[73:08] is not the way that China actually goes
[73:11] about its foreign policy. It does not go
[73:13] and invade other countries or in its
[73:16] most recent history it has not been that
[73:19] aggressive. The last war that China
[73:21] fought was in Vietnam. This was was in
[73:23] the mid early 80s. Okay, so this is a
[73:25] long time. [gasps] But if you go to
[73:28] China today,
[73:30] everyone believes that China and Japan
[73:34] will go to war. And to appreciate this,
[73:38] you have to understand the geography of
[73:40] Southeast Asia.
[73:41] >> Should you try to throw something up on
[73:43] the screen?
[73:43] >> Yeah. Okay. So, what I want to do is use
[73:47] geography to explain why conflict
[73:50] between China and Japan is inevitable at
[73:55] this point. Okay. So you have Japan,
[73:59] okay? And you have China.
[74:03] Okay. So the first thing to appreciate
[74:05] is that these are two very different
[74:07] countries. China is a land power that is
[74:11] self-sufficient.
[74:13] Japan is a sea power that is dependent
[74:18] on resources from abroad. So
[74:20] historically, China was primarily an
[74:23] agricultural nation. Japan in order to
[74:26] survive engage in piracy. So the
[74:28] Japanese have always been pretty
[74:30] militaristic. They have a very they had
[74:32] a cyber culture for the longest time.
[74:34] They were always at war with each other.
[74:37] Um and the Japanese people are extremely
[74:39] resilient and cohesive because the
[74:42] geography of Japan is very unstable.
[74:44] There's lots of earthquakes. There's lot
[74:46] tsunamis. So they have to work together
[74:47] as a people in order to survive. This is
[74:51] important because this war in Iran is
[74:55] affecting both China and Japan. China
[74:58] will probably have to de-industrialize.
[75:01] But if Japan doesn't do anything, then
[75:04] it's possible in the next 50 years Japan
[75:07] cease to exist. Because not only is
[75:09] Japan dependent on energy and imports
[75:12] and resources from overseas, but has an
[75:15] aging population, it has the most
[75:17] elderly population in the world. So in a
[75:21] time of war, when the United States is
[75:23] no longer able to give you protection,
[75:26] Japan needs to create resource colonies.
[75:30] And historically, Southeast Asia right
[75:32] here
[75:34] has been the main resource colony of
[75:36] Japan. If it doesn't have Southeast
[75:39] Asia, the United States now becomes the
[75:42] main benefactor of Japan. And Japan
[75:46] doesn't want to be in that position
[75:47] because that's what happened in World
[75:48] War II when uh Japan got most of its
[75:51] energy from the United States. And when
[75:52] the United States embargoled Japan,
[75:54] Japan was forced to declare war on the
[75:57] United States. Okay? Okay. So, United
[75:58] States can provide Japan with all its
[76:01] energy needs, but that would make Japan
[76:03] completely subservient. So, Japan wants
[76:06] to basically access the resources of
[76:08] Southeast Asia. There's a problem
[76:10] though, and that problem is called
[76:11] Taiwan.
[76:13] Taiwan is right in the middle
[76:17] of the South China Sea. And if China and
[76:21] Taiwan were to reunify, what China
[76:25] couldn't do now is embargo Japan. I'm
[76:28] not saying China will do so, but I'm
[76:30] saying that China has the option of
[76:32] doing so. And that's and Japan sees that
[76:35] as a threat to it existence. In fact, um
[76:38] a few
[76:39] >> say embargo. What does embargo mean?
[76:41] >> Embargo means you blockade. Okay.
[76:44] >> But if they did this, wouldn't the whole
[76:46] hell would break loose? You know, Japan
[76:48] are going to attack China. Taiwan, it's
[76:51] going to get messy. It's going to
[76:52] impact. I'm not saying that China would
[76:54] embargo Japan, but I'm saying it has the
[76:56] option of doing so.
[76:57] >> But you are saying that China is going
[76:59] to attack Japan.
[77:00] >> No, no, no, no. I'm saying there's a
[77:01] conflict between between these two
[77:02] nations.
[77:03] >> Okay. I thought you said it was
[77:04] inevitable.
[77:05] >> Yes. So, so let me explain how how this
[77:07] would draw, how this will play out.
[77:09] Okay. So,
[77:11] Japan sees Taiwan, the Taiwan issue as
[77:15] vital to its national security interest.
[77:16] And that's what exactly what Prime
[77:18] Minister Taki said a few months ago. And
[77:20] when she made that statement, China
[77:23] overreacted. So before you had millions
[77:26] of tourists from China visiting Japan a
[77:29] year. Now most of them are not allowed
[77:32] to go to Japan.
[77:35] And it's very likely that China and
[77:37] Japan will have a conflict over Taiwan.
[77:42] Now the thing to remember is it does not
[77:45] benefit any nation here to a war because
[77:49] as you point out all chaos would break
[77:51] out. What you need to do is create
[77:55] leverage to negotiate better terms.
[77:58] Okay. So what Japan is doing is saying
[78:00] okay look we can't take on China
[78:04] directly because China is too powerful
[78:06] but what what we can do is build
[78:09] alliances to possibly challenge and if
[78:14] we have to embargo China right so what
[78:17] Japan is doing is build alliance with
[78:18] the Philippines
[78:21] and Australia
[78:23] and India
[78:27] and together these four nations even
[78:29] without the United States they could in
[78:32] theory choose to embargo China
[78:37] right what Japan needs is access to
[78:39] Southeast Asia because that will be the
[78:42] main source of its resources going into
[78:45] the future so that is the scenario being
[78:47] played out now China does not want to
[78:51] come into a conflict with Japan why
[78:54] because China is seen as the big bad
[78:57] dragon in this area and if China is seen
[79:00] as too provocative that would basically
[79:04] incentivize all of Southeast Asia to
[79:06] gang up on China. So you can see
[79:09] alliance between India, Southeast Asia,
[79:11] Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South
[79:15] Korea, North Korea, Japan versus China.
[79:18] Okay. So the way to resolve this issue
[79:23] is to use a proxy
[79:26] in order to threaten Japan in order to
[79:30] uh develop more leverage
[79:32] over Japan in negotiations,
[79:34] >> right? And that proxy of course is North
[79:37] Korea.
[79:39] So, North Korea
[79:41] has the potential to shell South Korea
[79:45] because most of the population of South
[79:47] Korea lives within 20 minutes of North
[79:50] Korea. And so, in theory, North Korea
[79:52] could flatten Soul in just a day. Okay.
[79:55] Most of North Korean artillery is
[79:57] actually by the border. What North Korea
[80:00] could also do is lobby missiles into the
[80:03] Sea of Japan and rattle the Japanese.
[80:06] Okay, so this is the dynamic being
[80:08] played out where Japan through its
[80:11] proxies primarily Philippines is
[80:14] challenging Chinese naval dominance in
[80:17] the South China Sea and China will use
[80:19] North Korea as a proxy to threaten South
[80:22] Korea and Japan. Over time, as the
[80:27] United States retreats from uh the
[80:31] Asia-Pacific, this conflict between
[80:33] China and Japan will get worse and
[80:35] worse. And the reason main reason why is
[80:39] it is in the strategic best interest of
[80:41] the United States to ferment as much
[80:43] tension between China and Japan as
[80:45] possible.
[80:46] >> But it could compromise Taiwan. No,
[80:49] >> who cares?
[80:51] >> The US care about Taiwan?
[80:52] >> No, it doesn't. I thought that's who we
[80:54] get all of our semiconductors from.
[80:56] >> But what does Trump want to do? He wants
[80:59] the Taiwanese to move their
[81:01] semiconductor industry to the United
[81:03] States. And that's already happening
[81:05] where TSMC,
[81:07] the main semiconductor u company in
[81:10] Taiwan, is open a I believe it's 2020 20
[81:14] billion new factory in Arizona. So if
[81:18] there's a conflict between China and
[81:21] Japan, the the tension becomes worse and
[81:23] worse, the Taiwanese semiconductor
[81:24] industry, it would be forced to relocate
[81:27] the United States, would be in the best
[81:29] interests of the Americans.
[81:32] >> You also think that um Russia are going
[81:35] to invade the Baltics.
[81:37] >> Yeah. Okay. So now we'll shift focus and
[81:40] go into Europe. All right. Okay. But but
[81:44] is this pretty clear?
[81:45] >> Yes, it is clear.
[81:46] >> Okay. Right now you have NATO or Europe
[81:53] supporting Ukraine
[81:56] in its war against Russia.
[82:01] Okay. And most of this war is actually
[82:04] happening in eastern Ukraine. And Russia
[82:08] seems to be winning a lot of territory
[82:11] in eastern Ukraine. But everybody's
[82:14] saying that Ukraine are fighting back
[82:16] really really well.
[82:17] >> The reason why is what Ukraine has
[82:19] chosen to do in these past few months
[82:21] which has which has changed the contours
[82:23] of the war is Ukraine is using drones to
[82:26] attack Russia's energy infrastructure
[82:29] >> and just hitting Russia in general is
[82:31] making the people of Russia change their
[82:32] perception.
[82:32] >> Exactly. Right. So before this conflict
[82:35] was contained to eastern Ukraine, it
[82:39] didn't affect the people of Russia. In
[82:40] fact, it really was helping the economy
[82:43] of Russia because Russia could still
[82:45] export its oil around the world. Now,
[82:48] Ukraine, what Ukraine is doing is using
[82:50] drones to attack the war refineries of
[82:54] Russia, which is causing economic pain
[82:57] on the Russian people and this is making
[83:00] uh Putin increasingly unpopular. Okay?
[83:04] So, the contour of the war has changed.
[83:06] So if you're Russia and you're looking
[83:08] at this, you think your enemy is not
[83:11] Ukraine. You think your enemy is NATO
[83:14] Europe. Why? Because Ukraine the drones
[83:18] are being manufactured
[83:21] in Germany
[83:23] and the UK and other places as well. So
[83:27] in theory, Ukraine could fight this war
[83:30] to infinity because its manufacturing
[83:33] hub is in Europe. Europe is is is also
[83:37] providing Ukraine with infinite
[83:38] financing as well as intelligence. Okay.
[83:42] So, if you're Russia, you're like, "Wait
[83:43] a minute here. Over time, we can't
[83:46] possibly win this war of attrition
[83:48] because we're funding Europe and
[83:50] Europe's manufacturing
[83:52] capacity is well protected behind the
[83:55] NATO alliance." Okay. So what I need to
[83:58] do is provoke NATO and Europe into
[84:03] coming into Ukraine. Basically force
[84:06] them out of their shell shell, right?
[84:10] And so what's been happening is Germany
[84:13] and Russia have been in conflict these
[84:16] past few months. In early August,
[84:19] there's a drone attack on Libig airport.
[84:22] Okay, Libig airport.
[84:26] and the Germans blamed the Russians and
[84:28] in response the Germans closed down the
[84:31] Russ Russian consulate in Bond as well
[84:34] as remove certain Russians from uh
[84:37] Germany. Russia is retaliating by
[84:40] closing the German consulate in St.
[84:42] Petersburg and the Russian foreign
[84:46] minister S Lav have have said we are in
[84:50] a similar situation to 1941. What
[84:53] happened in 1941? the Germans invaded
[84:54] Russia. Okay, so in other words, Russia
[84:58] recognizes that if they just leave
[85:01] Europe alone and just fight this war in
[85:03] Ukraine, they will lose in the end, so
[85:06] they must force and provoke Europe into
[85:09] mass mobilization to defend Ukraine. And
[85:13] one way to do that is by hitting
[85:18] critical manufacturing infrastructure
[85:20] within Europe. Do you think Russia
[85:22] Russia's next move is to attack within
[85:25] NATO, Germany, the UK, etc.?
[85:28] >> It has no choice. It It has to do this.
[85:30] >> Can't it just do a deal with Trump?
[85:33] Like, you know, they're trying to do a
[85:34] deal at the moment, aren't they? Jared
[85:35] Kushner is apparently trying to get a
[85:36] deal done between Ukraine and Russia.
[85:37] And so, if the United States, do you
[85:42] want peace between Europe and Russia, or
[85:45] do you want war between Europe and
[85:47] Russia? Well, from a gameplay
[85:49] perspective, you're better off with war.
[85:52] Why? Because if there's war, Russia
[85:55] can't sell it energy overseas.
[85:58] United States has monopoly over energy
[86:00] now, right?
[86:00] >> This causes global instability, though.
[86:03] If there's a war here, then it's going
[86:04] to impact the US in a big way.
[86:06] >> Well, then why the United States invade
[86:08] Iran, right? Because they thought it
[86:10] would be an overnight Venezuela
[86:12] situation where you decapitate the
[86:13] leadership, everyone rises up, you have
[86:14] a favorable leader in the country that
[86:17] you is subservient to you.
[86:18] >> Great. Exactly. And this is exactly how
[86:22] the empire thinks, right? We already
[86:24] used this formula, right? Yeah.
[86:25] >> Now, if we apply this formula to Europe
[86:28] situation, then the thinking is, well,
[86:31] Putin is a paper tiger. He is very
[86:34] unpopular at home. If we just force this
[86:37] war for another two months, if we
[86:40] continue to attack the energy
[86:41] infrastructure of Russia, then
[86:42] eventually people will rise up and
[86:44] overthrow Putin. Right? The same logic.
[86:48] >> So therefore, Trump wants the Ukraine to
[86:51] win
[86:53] or he wants Ukraine to keep doing what
[86:54] they're doing.
[86:55] >> Well, Trump personally doesn't care,
[86:59] right? Because the more war there is,
[87:02] the more the Europeans are forced to
[87:04] rely on American energy.
[87:07] >> Okay?
[87:08] >> So, if you're Putin, what you need to do
[87:12] is force the Europeans into war in
[87:15] Ukraine. Why? Because there's only
[87:18] really only one path to victory in this
[87:20] scenario.
[87:22] The path of victory is to cause
[87:25] instability
[87:26] and violence
[87:29] in Europe. Okay. The idea is if you
[87:33] force Europe to mass mobilize, the
[87:36] people would rather overthrow the
[87:39] government than agree to take up arms
[87:41] against Russia. That's a theory. Okay.
[87:44] But Russia has exactly one path to
[87:46] victory and that is to cause as much
[87:48] instability and violence as possible
[87:50] within Europe. The best way to do that
[87:52] is by forcing the Europeans to mass
[87:55] mobilize their population. Okay? But for
[87:57] that to happen, what Russia needs to do
[88:00] first is declare total war.
[88:04] What total war means is the mass
[88:06] mobilization
[88:08] of your society. So what's important for
[88:10] us to appreciate is so far Russia has
[88:13] not declared war on Ukraine. It is a
[88:16] special military operation
[88:19] which means that Russia is relying on
[88:22] volunteers to fight this war. In a time
[88:25] of total war, Russia could mobilize its
[88:29] ADA population. And we estimate there
[88:32] are at least three million
[88:36] reser in Russia ready to be called up to
[88:40] arms. Mass mobilization in Russia would
[88:43] force mass mobilization in Europe. And
[88:46] this is how the war is most likely uh
[88:50] will most likely turn out.
[88:53] I mean I guess the other thing that's I
[88:55] mean listen professor there's a sounds
[88:58] like there's a lot of conflict on the
[88:59] way
[89:00] >> there's an acceleration underway
[89:02] >> what would have to be true for us to sit
[89:04] here in 2036
[89:06] and for there not to have been a
[89:08] conflict between China and Japan for the
[89:12] uh Iran situation to have cooled off the
[89:14] Ukraine war is either you know where it
[89:16] is now or it's uh regressed the clean
[89:20] memo that's changed history.
[89:22] >> So what what are you saying spec
[89:24] specifically? What would have to be the
[89:26] case for none of these sort of
[89:27] catastrophic things to take place?
[89:28] >> Okay, in the year 1995, okay, this was
[89:31] published in 1996. Now Yahoo came in
[89:34] power in Israel in 1996. In 1995, we
[89:38] lived in a world of neoliberalism,
[89:40] something called Washington Census. And
[89:42] the idea is we have developed a new
[89:46] model of history. If people just traded
[89:51] with each other and consumers just
[89:54] bought goods, we would have peace
[89:56] forever. Okay, this is what we call
[89:59] neoliberalism, Washington consensus.
[90:02] And Bill Clinton
[90:04] was the main proponent
[90:07] of this idea. And in order to achieve
[90:10] this vision for global peace, what he
[90:14] did was promote the Oslo peace process
[90:18] which sought to create a two-state
[90:19] solution and bring peace in the Middle
[90:23] East. Right? The two-state solution is
[90:24] the Palestinians and the Israelis agreed
[90:26] to live side by side. And at that time
[90:29] the main thinking was
[90:32] that once peace happened in the Middle
[90:35] East once a two-state solution was
[90:37] created then they would start to trade
[90:38] with each other. Israel and Palestine be
[90:42] brought into the GCC and they would be
[90:46] part of the global supply chain and once
[90:49] prosperity comes to Israel and Palestine
[90:52] they would have no need to ever hate
[90:56] each other again. This is called the
[90:58] also peace process. Okay. And again at
[91:00] that time this was just how policymakers
[91:03] in Washington understood the world
[91:05] right? It worked in China. It worked in
[91:08] Japan. It worked in Germany. The Japan
[91:11] and Germany were these really militant
[91:13] nation states. But then we allowed them
[91:15] to trade. We allowed their consumers to
[91:17] have air conditioning SUVs and now
[91:19] they're just really peaceful people. So
[91:21] why can't we do the same thing in Israel
[91:24] and Palestine? So what is the clean
[91:26] break theory? What? What in a sentence?
[91:29] >> The clean brick theory is this.
[91:31] Netanyahu came into power and basically
[91:34] his argument is we can never ever trust
[91:39] the Arabs not to hate us. We are
[91:42] Israelis.
[91:44] We have been promised this land by God.
[91:48] And the Arabs see us as enemies. And
[91:54] whatever we do, they will always hate
[91:56] us. So screw peace, screw compromise.
[92:00] Let us become the regional hedgemon
[92:03] because that is our manifest destiny.
[92:06] That is what God told us to do. That is
[92:08] what is written in the Bible. And that's
[92:10] what we were born to do. Okay? And this
[92:12] is something called the clean brick
[92:14] memo. And the clean brick memo had three
[92:17] major pillars that have that have all
[92:19] been achieved today. Okay? The first
[92:21] pillar is stop the also peace process.
[92:24] Do not give more land to the
[92:26] Palestinians because the Palestinians
[92:29] are animals and the way to treat animals
[92:31] is by beating the crap out of them.
[92:34] Okay. Do not treat them nicely. They
[92:36] will
[92:38] um
[92:39] they will hate you.
[92:40] >> So wait, are you saying that the way to
[92:42] stop all of the pessimism that we talked
[92:44] about happening is by the clean break
[92:47] theory succeeding?
[92:49] >> No. No, no, no. What I said was in 1995
[92:52] there was already a theory in place
[92:53] called neol liberalism that offered a
[92:55] solution to the Israel Palestine issue
[92:59] that has been plaguing the Middle East
[93:01] for the past few decades. And if they
[93:03] had follow that through then we live in
[93:05] a very different time.
[93:06] >> Okay. So to to my question my question
[93:08] is and what would have to be the case
[93:10] for this all the things you've described
[93:12] the the the wars and the conflict not to
[93:14] happen.
[93:15] >> Right. What would have happened is the
[93:17] United States had pressured Israel into
[93:21] seeking peace with the Arab nations.
[93:23] >> Okay. So the US need to get Israel to be
[93:27] friends with the Arab nations.
[93:29] >> Yes. You force it because Israel simply
[93:31] dependent on you for technology, for
[93:34] financing, for arms. Israel is the
[93:38] biggest recipient of American foreign
[93:41] policy uh aid. So, just for those that
[93:44] want to know what the clean break theory
[93:46] is, it was it's called a clean break, a
[93:49] new strategy for securing the realm. It
[93:51] refers to a prominent 1996 policy
[93:53] documented um and then prepared for
[93:56] Benjamin Netanyahu by a study group led
[93:59] by American neoonservative strategists.
[94:02] Um did he read this me memo?
[94:05] >> He commissioned it.
[94:06] >> He commissioned it. Okay. And the key
[94:08] objectives of the clean break are, as
[94:10] you said, the first one, abandoning land
[94:12] for peace, which advocated for moving
[94:13] away from the Oslo Accords framework,
[94:16] shifting to a posture of peace through
[94:18] strength and peace for peace without
[94:20] giving up any territory. Number two,
[94:21] regional dominance. It recommended
[94:23] transcending the Israel Palestine
[94:24] conflict by focusing on weakening
[94:26] regional adversaries, specifically
[94:28] advocating for the containment or
[94:30] removal of hostile regimes in Iraq and
[94:32] Syria, and dismantling the Iraq Syria
[94:34] Hezbollah access. And lastly, preemptive
[94:37] action. It urged Israel to abandon
[94:39] defensive containment policies in favor
[94:41] of proactive offensive strategies. And
[94:44] that's exactly what Israel is doing
[94:45] today. This is what Israel has done for
[94:48] the past 30 years. It has promoted
[94:51] regime change in Syria, in Iraq.
[94:54] >> And so the conclusion here is to stop
[94:56] this sort of conflict escalating,
[94:58] they have to reverse course with this
[95:00] strategy.
[95:01] >> The US needs to contain Israel. Yes.
[95:04] Okay.
[95:06] But what I'm arguing is it's too late
[95:08] because you you've already unleashed
[95:10] these structural forces that will
[95:12] collapse the global trade system. In
[95:14] which case, it's every nation for
[95:17] itself. I mean, you you've already
[95:19] created the conditions for Japan and
[95:22] China to go to war. You've already
[95:24] created conditions for Germany and
[95:25] Russia to go to war. It's no longer you
[95:28] can't put the gene back back in the
[95:30] bottle again.
[95:32] >> What does this mean? you know, a lot of
[95:33] mo most of us aren't involved in
[95:34] politics. So, um, we just kind of watch
[95:36] this stuff and we have to sort of figure
[95:38] out what to do with our our families and
[95:40] our lives
[95:42] in spite of this sort of craziness that
[95:43] we see in the news and the global
[95:45] conflict and all that stuff. What is the
[95:46] advice that you have for the average
[95:48] person?
[95:49] >> The best advice I can give to the
[95:51] average person is believe in God. So, I
[95:58] am a product of the meritocracy. I
[96:00] received the best education in the world
[96:02] and I feel the best education in the
[96:06] world makes you think the world is
[96:09] materialistic. God doesn't exist. And as
[96:12] a result, in my 20s and 30s and 40s, I
[96:16] was a deeply
[96:18] angry, depressed, frustrated
[96:22] person because if God doesn't exist,
[96:25] there's no order and structure to what's
[96:28] going on and it's just complete chaos
[96:32] and there can be no hope or light in
[96:35] chaos.
[96:37] And because
[96:39] I married a wonderful woman who I think
[96:42] is really an angel, because I have like
[96:44] three beautiful children, I do believe
[96:48] there's a plan and a structure and order
[96:52] and reason to the world. And I've come
[96:56] in the past two years, and it's only
[96:59] been recent, okay? It's only been the
[97:00] past two years when I have a true belief
[97:04] in God.
[97:05] >> So, it's all going to be okay.
[97:07] Yes. Great. Yes. But you need to believe
[97:12] in God and you need to focus on your
[97:17] family. Then it will be all right.
[97:20] >> So don't focus on protesting in the
[97:23] streets or elections or any of those
[97:25] things.
[97:27] If you believe in God and you focus on
[97:31] your family, sometimes you're compelled
[97:34] to take action. Because I believe in
[97:37] God, I live a life following one simple
[97:42] principle, which is speak the truth. Why
[97:46] am I on your show? Why did I spend the
[97:50] past month
[97:52] um going on so many different podcasts?
[97:54] Because it's important people know the
[97:56] truth. If you really believe in God, if
[97:59] you really focus on your family, you
[98:01] have a personal and moral responsibility
[98:04] to speak the truth. If you know what's
[98:07] going to happen, then speak it. Why are
[98:09] you doing this? What good will do? It
[98:12] doesn't matter. It's just like your
[98:14] faith in God
[98:17] compels you to live the truth to and to
[98:20] speak the truth and to spread the the
[98:22] truth. So just because you believe in
[98:25] God doesn't mean okay now I believe in
[98:27] God and now I can just sit back and hide
[98:30] in my room and play computer games all
[98:32] day doesn't mean that. It means if you
[98:34] truly believe in God and you believe
[98:35] there's a plan then you have to take
[98:37] action and you have to participate in
[98:40] the world because why else would God
[98:42] create you?
[98:44] So why is God letting all of this stuff
[98:46] happen? When I look around the world I
[98:48] see lots of wars and conflict. Russia,
[98:50] Ukraine, the Middle East, lots of other
[98:51] things breaking out at the moment. Why
[98:53] would God let this happen?
[98:56] >> What is the path to wisdom?
[99:01] >> Struggle, pain, failure.
[99:03] >> Yeah.
[99:04] >> Can we just have the wisdom without
[99:05] them?
[99:06] >> Well, or could you? [laughter]
[99:09] [snorts]
[99:10] >> So, we've got a lesson to learn.
[99:11] >> We have many lessons to learn. But if
[99:13] you are truly a spiritual person,
[99:17] you're thankful for this time because
[99:21] this struggle, this suffering will allow
[99:25] us to transcend ourselves.
[99:27] Where are we here to make a lot of money
[99:30] and drive fast cars? Are we here to
[99:33] learn what it means to be truly human?
[99:36] To learn what love is? To develop a
[99:41] deeper connection with God?
[99:43] I mean, I think we're here first and
[99:47] foremost to be truly human. And that
[99:50] means living a life of love, empathy,
[99:52] and imagination. And so, we go back to
[99:55] that formula where if you have too much
[99:56] wealth, you have too much fame, you have
[99:58] too much power, it's impossible for you
[100:01] to truly have imagination, empathy, and
[100:04] love.
[100:05] So, how do you correct this? Will you
[100:07] create a world of crisis? Because in a
[100:10] world of crisis, everyone, you and me,
[100:13] we're forced to look deep down and ask
[100:14] ourselves, what is truly important to
[100:17] me?
[100:20] What gives me happiness? What is meaning
[100:22] and purpose in my life? And I think the
[100:25] answer is it's my love for the people
[100:29] around me. And that's the answer that we
[100:31] will all come to. And once we come to
[100:33] this um answer, then I think that is the
[100:36] great spiritual awakening that could
[100:37] possibly redeem all of humanity.
[100:40] >> Professor, what's the most um pertinent
[100:43] thing that's front of mind for you at
[100:44] the moment that we haven't talked about?
[100:46] >> Well, I mean, we did talk about the
[100:48] coming conflict between China and Japan,
[100:50] and I worry a lot about that.
[100:52] >> What about AI? We didn't talk about that
[100:54] and that's kind of overlaid on all of
[100:55] the stories we've talked about because
[100:56] it's to do with robotics, it's energy,
[100:58] it's semiconductors, chips, it's US,
[101:01] China. Yeah. So that's a great question.
[101:05] Um and so if we go back and talk about
[101:07] global supply chains, this formula is
[101:09] very important to understand. Technology
[101:11] equals specialization times
[101:12] globalization. So in a time when global
[101:17] supply chains are breaking down in time
[101:19] of war AI cannot make that leap into
[101:22] AGI. So what will happen is
[101:26] AI will be repurposed as a control grid
[101:31] rather than AI developing the
[101:34] intelligence necessary to reduce
[101:36] scarcity to solve the most pressing
[101:41] medical problems of humanity. uh to
[101:43] solve climate change. AI will be re
[101:46] repurposed to monitor and surveil all of
[101:51] us.
[101:52] >> I think that's going to happen
[101:52] irrespective of, you know, I think
[101:56] governments are going to be increasingly
[101:58] interested in and capable of monitoring
[102:00] all of us all the time cuz we have
[102:02] cameras. We're here in New York City at
[102:03] the moment. There's cameras everywhere.
[102:04] They're just a little bit dumb. They
[102:06] don't really talk to each other.
[102:08] >> Yep. And
[102:09] >> with AI, they can all talk to each
[102:10] other. professor's walking down the
[102:12] street and he's off his way to this
[102:13] hotel and now he's in a hotel and
[102:15] >> I agree that is the most likely trend.
[102:19] But what I'm saying is all these crises
[102:22] will accelerate this trend because let's
[102:25] just say you have a siege of New York
[102:27] City. Well, Palunteer will use this
[102:30] opportunity develop um autonomous drone
[102:32] warfare that is controlled by AI.
[102:34] >> So is that your big concern with AI? Is
[102:36] it surveillance?
[102:37] >> That's not the big risk I see. The big
[102:40] risk I see is how AI can cheapen
[102:46] the human experience. How AI is almost
[102:49] dehumanizing because what people like
[102:54] Ellen Mus and Peter Theo and Soman are
[102:56] saying is computers are so much smarter
[102:58] than us. And it could be true that AI
[103:04] will eventually be able to do
[103:06] mathematics, do medical diagnostics much
[103:10] more efficiently than we are. But
[103:12] ultimately, we as humans, we're here to
[103:14] love, imagine, and have and be kind to
[103:17] other people. And that is what the human
[103:19] experience is. And if we focus too much
[103:22] on AI, that diverts and distracts us
[103:25] from our true mission, which is one of
[103:28] spiritual growth.
[103:32] Our true mission is spiritual growth.
[103:37] What do you um what gives you hope?
[103:40] Well, the only thing that gives me hope
[103:42] um
[103:44] um are my children,
[103:47] right? you met Chris, but I'm here
[103:52] because of Chris. Honestly, if I didn't
[103:55] have children, first of all, I don't
[103:57] think I would be this successful because
[103:59] I wouldn't have much purpose and meaning
[104:01] in my life. But honestly, at the same
[104:04] time, I think that while children and I
[104:06] were suddenly this famous, I would
[104:08] become very corrupted very fast. I would
[104:10] just focus on the fame. I would try to
[104:12] make as much money as possible because
[104:14] while children the only purpose in life
[104:16] is competition against others, right? To
[104:18] prove that I am materally more
[104:19] successful than other people. And so I
[104:22] would just try to to uh make as much
[104:25] money as possible for myself in my 50
[104:28] minutes of fame. But now that I have
[104:30] children, I'm more much more concerned
[104:32] about building a legacy
[104:35] for them and setting a good example.
[104:38] >> Are you worried about Chris's future?
[104:39] >> I'm not. You know,
[104:41] >> I'm not all worried about his future.
[104:43] >> Why?
[104:44] >> Because my wife and I have loved him to
[104:48] the best of our ability. And the fact
[104:51] that we love him gives him the
[104:53] confidence to live his life to the
[104:57] fullest. We see every day Chris as a
[105:00] gift from God.
[105:02] >> But if the world is collapsing in your
[105:04] words, and Chris is in that world,
[105:06] >> Yeah.
[105:06] >> are you not concerned?
[105:07] >> I'm not at all concerned.
[105:10] Because we are here in order to have a
[105:14] spiritual awakening and
[105:17] all the crises they will induce deep
[105:21] reflection
[105:22] in order for us to fulfill our purpose.
[105:25] I don't know why Chris is here. When
[105:27] Chris was 2 years old, he literally told
[105:30] us, "Mom, dad, I'm from a I'm I'm from
[105:33] another world." And he named that world
[105:35] and I'm just an alien visiting you guys.
[105:38] And my wife and I, we weren't surprised.
[105:40] We're like, "We knew this." Yeah. We
[105:42] knew you were an alien. We We knew you
[105:43] came from from another world. And we
[105:45] knew that you came here to experience
[105:49] humanity for all our faults and all for
[105:52] all our problems. And we see you. We
[105:57] love you, but we will do whatever we can
[106:00] to empower you on your mission. And we
[106:02] going to try our best because ultimately
[106:04] it's your life. It's your mission. And
[106:07] we cannot ever control you. Love is
[106:12] about trust. Love is about liberation.
[106:16] Liberation from your own anxieties and
[106:19] liberation from the need to control
[106:21] others.
[106:22] Professor, we have a closing tradition
[106:24] where the last guest leaves a question
[106:25] for the next not knowing who they're
[106:26] leaving it for. The question left for
[106:28] you is, what is your biggest challenge
[106:30] and how are you working on fixing it?
[106:34] My biggest challenge is my fear, my
[106:39] doubt, my paralysis. I
[106:43] went to um the US border yesterday and
[106:47] now I'm afraid that I will never be
[106:50] allowed back in the United States after
[106:52] I I leave. I'm afraid that I might get
[106:54] banned from a lot of countries because
[106:56] all I do is talk trash about different
[106:58] countries. I've talked trash talk trash
[107:00] about China. I've talked trash about
[107:01] Canada. I've talked trash about the
[107:03] United States. If I got banned from all
[107:04] three countries, I'd be in a lot of
[107:06] trouble. And so, my constant challenge
[107:10] is to maintain my faith in God, maintain
[107:14] my faith in my family, maintain uh my
[107:17] faith in in my purpose.
[107:19] >> I hope you do. And you have a wonderful
[107:20] son. He's so He's so um
[107:24] curious is the vibe that I got from him.
[107:27] >> He's a gift from God.
[107:29] >> Very very curious. I just met him in the
[107:30] green room then and he was like he's
[107:32] playing with some Play-Doh and lots of
[107:33] toys and stuff like that and I'm not
[107:35] surprised that he is your son from the
[107:37] 15 seconds I spent with him [laughter]
[107:39] cuz he's very very curious and clearly
[107:41] going to be a very smart young man. So
[107:43] congratulations. Thank you.
[107:45] >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm
[107:46] where they know exactly what video you
[107:48] would like to watch next based on AI and
[107:51] all of your viewing behavior. And the
[107:53] algorithm says that this video is the
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