LA Shoot Days Sink Below 20,000 as Tax Incentives Drain Productions

Bloomberg

Los Angeles entertainment was already hollowed out by runaway production tax subsidies, streaming catalog saturation, and shrinking writers' rooms years before generative AI arrived.

AI-assisted summary of Hollywood Was Cooked Before AI, and Now It's Only Getting Worse — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-09-25

Key ideas

Los Angeles on-location shoot days have collapsed by more than 50% from a 2016 peak of roughly 40,000 to under 20,000, underscoring that Hollywood's economic contraction was well underway before generative AI emerged. (2:50)
Production has fled California due to aggressive state and international tax incentives, leading networks to shoot standard studio game shows in Dublin and leaving newly completed LA soundstage developments stranded. (10:00)
Writers' rooms have undergone severe downsizing from historic 30-person comedy staffs to single-creator auteur projects and skeleton 'mini rooms', while new shows face stiff competition against decades of permanent streaming back-catalogs. (12:08)
The local industry faces severe ripple effects that endanger below-the-line crew members and municipal businesses like restaurants, while user-generated free content continues to compress the commercial value of professional screen media. (24:10)

Detailed notes

## Background Published by Bloomberg on September 25, 2026, across podcast feeds and web platforms, this live episode of Odd Lots was recorded at the Vermont Hollywood in Los Angeles. Hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal welcome television writer and Hollywood Handbook co-host Hayes Davenport to unpack the structural crisis hollowing out the entertainment industry well before the arrival of generative AI.

## TL;DR Television writer Hayes Davenport illustrates how Hollywood's economic downturn predates generative AI, demonstrated by Los Angeles on-location shoot days collapsing from a 2016 peak of 40,000 to under 20,000. The conversation details how the decline of linear cable, streaming library oversaturation, and aggressive tax arbitrage hollowed out traditional 30-person comedy writers' rooms into hyper-lean mini rooms while moving physical production out of California. While generative AI faces fierce stigma among local entertainment labor, Davenport notes that tech encroachment threatens below-the-line crew jobs and formulaic development pipelines that were already reeling from competition against endless free digital media. This sustained production slump has severely damaged the broader Los Angeles municipal economy, eroding neighborhood hospitality, local nightlife, and the shared cultural monoculture.

## Atmosphere & style Taped live before an entertainment-industry crowd, the episode balances sharp economic analysis with Davenport's trademark deadpan sarcasm and dry self-deprecation. Alloway and Weisenthal maintain an energetic, inquisitive rhythm that draws out candid, behind-the-scenes realities of writers' room politics and City Hall bureaucracy. The overarching mood is wryly elegiac, capturing the collective anxiety of an industry town watching its glamorous historic identity transform into a cautious, insular gig economy.

## Bulletin - `02:50` Los Angeles on-location shoot days have collapsed by more than 50% from a 2016 peak of roughly 40,000 to under 20,000, underscoring that Hollywood's economic contraction was well underway before generative AI emerged. - `10:00` Production has fled California due to aggressive state and international tax incentives, leading networks to shoot standard studio game shows in Dublin and leaving newly completed LA soundstage developments stranded. - `12:08` Writers' rooms have undergone severe downsizing from historic 30-person comedy staffs to single-creator auteur projects and skeleton 'mini rooms', while new shows face stiff competition against decades of permanent streaming back-catalogs. - `24:10` The local industry faces severe ripple effects that endanger below-the-line crew members and municipal businesses like restaurants, while user-generated free content continues to compress the commercial value of professional screen media.

## Key takeaways - `02:50` On-location shoot days in Los Angeles peaked at ~40,000 in 2016, leveled to 37,000 before the pandemic, dropped to 25,000 during the 2023 strikes, and subsequently slid below 20,000. - `04:55` Basic cable scripted programming collapsed just as streaming lured a massive influx of new writers into the WGA, creating an oversupply of union labor right before streaming production retrenched. - `10:00` Generous out-of-state and international tax rebates have triggered a geographic race to the bottom, relocating productions to hubs like South Carolina, Vancouver, and Dublin. - `10:00` Speculative studio real estate developments greenlit during the 2016–2019 boom completed construction just as structural entertainment production demand collapsed. - `12:08` Studios increasingly bypass traditional comedy writers' rooms in favor of the solo auteur model to cut staffing overhead, shrinking room sizes to bare minimums. - `17:10` New television releases are forced to compete directly against complete, friction-free streaming libraries of legacy hits like Family Guy and The Office. - `20:00` Generative AI faces fierce cultural stigma in Los Angeles primarily because it threatens working-class below-the-line crew jobs including hair, makeup, grips, and set designers. - `20:00` Studios increasingly option unvetted IP from message boards like Reddit, opening a back-door channel for anonymously generated AI writing to enter development pipelines. - `22:30` Horror remains Hollywood's most viable theatrical genre due to low-to-mid budgets and high returns, attracting prominent comedy directors away from struggling theatrical comedy. - `24:10` Hollywood's existential struggle parallels the decline of print journalism, as paid entertainment contends with a limitless supply of algorithmically sorted free online content. - `26:30` Production shutdowns directly harm the broader Los Angeles municipal economy, stripping local restaurants, caterers, and neighborhood vendors of essential commercial revenue. - `30:00` The death of the entertainment monoculture has replaced traditional universal movie stardom and vibrant public nightlife with fragmented algorithmic fame and homebound routines.

## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` Live from the Vermont: Is Hollywood Cooked?

Broadcasting live from the Vermont Hollywood for their first-ever live show in Los Angeles, *Odd Lots* hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal open with a deep dive into the existential anxiety gripping the entertainment capital. Their guest is Hayes Davenport, a seasoned television comedy writer whose credits include *Eastbound & Down* and *Family Guy*, who currently serves as creative director of LA Material and co-hosts the *Hollywood Handbook* podcast. Welcoming him to the stage, the hosts playfully acknowledge the room full of entertainment figures—including a self-identified podcast lawyer spotted in the audience. Tracy admits that her favorite run in television history remains *Family Guy* season 13, which Davenport notes with mock modesty was the exact season he worked on, deadpanning that the correlation is "just a total coincidence."

The conversation quickly cuts past the banter to the existential question looming over the industry: Is Hollywood just screwed? Between writers seeing their earnings dry up, production abandoning Los Angeles soundstages, and the looming specter of artificial intelligence, Tracy asks whether everyone in town is truly "cooked."

`02:50` The Shoot Days Collapse: From 40,000 to Under 20,000

Davenport responds by anchoring the crisis in hard data rather than industry gossip. The defining barometer of local industry vitality is "shoot days"—a metric tracked across reality television, scripted shows, and commercial productions. By that metric, Hollywood's current malaise is neither imagined nor merely psychological; the numbers reflect an unprecedented contraction that began well before generative AI took center stage.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Los Angeles On-Location Shoot Days (2016-2024) accDescr: Historical trend of LA shoot days showing a peak in 2016, pandemic crash, rebound, and severe post-strike decline.

subgraph Growth["Peak & Streaming Transition"] A["2016 Peak ~40,000 Shoot Days"] --> B["2019 Pre-Pandemic ~37,000 Shoot Days"] end

subgraph Volatility["Disruption & Backlog"] B --> C["2020 Pandemic Shock Steep Collapse"] C --> D["2021 Backlog Spike Rapid Rebound"] D --> E["2022 Normalization ~37,000 Shoot Days"] end

subgraph Contraction["Labor Strife & Retrenchment"] E --> F["2023 WGA/SAG Strikes 25,000 Shoot Days"] F --> G["2024 Retrenchment Under 20,000 Shoot Days"] end ```

The data shows that on-location shoot days in Los Angeles reached an all-time peak in 2016 at roughly 40,000 before gradually leveling down to around 37,000 by 2019. After collapsing during the 2020 lockdowns, production briefly surged during the 2021 backlog rush before settling back to the 2019 baseline of 37,000 in 2022. However, the dual Hollywood strikes of 2023 caused shoot days to plummet to 25,000. Despite a pervasive industry mantra to "survive till '25"—the widespread hope that a post-strike recovery would restore production—activity sank even further, falling to 23,000 and eventually dipping under 20,000 shoot days. Production in Los Angeles has effectively been halved since its 2016 zenith.

- **2016 Peak:** Approximately 40,000 total shoot days in Los Angeles across film, television, and commercial shoots. - **Pre-Pandemic Plateau (2019):** Stabilized around 37,000 shoot days as cable began to decline. - **The Strike Trough (2023):** Sunk to 25,000 shoot days during WGA and SAG-AFTRA work stoppages. - **Post-Strike Reality:** Collapsed below 20,000 shoot days, cutting peak regional activity by more than 50%.

`04:55` Cable’s Collapse, WGA Expansion, and Creator Economy Jealousy

Unpacking the plateau between 2016 and 2019, Davenport describes the underlying structural realignment from cable television to streaming. When he first started out in the business, Netflix's *House of Cards* was so alien an enterprise that industry veterans simply labeled it a "web series." While streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon were pouring billions into new program orders, traditional ad-supported basic cable networks were quietly retreating. Networks like Comedy Central—where Davenport landed his first staff jobs—virtually ceased ordering original scripted series. Because existing cable writers maintained their guild status while streaming ushered in a wave of new hires, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) membership rolls swelled significantly in the late 2010s just as the total volume of work was beginning to peak. When the volume later contracted, newer writers found themselves cut loose, forcing many into survival day jobs, relocation, or podcasting as a "safe harbor."

Joe raises the question of whether the booming influencer and vertical-video creator economy softens this economic blow. Davenport distinguishes between the traditional Hollywood "industry" (the studios and networks) and the regional "economy." Social media creators genuinely fuel the local economy by drawing global subscriber and sponsor dollars into Southern California. However, Davenport notes a surprising feeling of jealousy toward New York City's social media presence. New York dominates street-level virality with organic sidewalk encounters—interviewers abruptly asking pedestrians what they pay in rent, what music they are listening to, or demanding an impromptu apartment tour. In contrast, Davenport jokes that he lives in mortal terror of being cornered on the street, opting out, and looking terrible on camera as a result. For decades, Los Angeles exported its aspirational culture through movies showcasing sunny Venice Boardwalk rollerbladers; today, its cultural footprint is largely reduced to viral TikToks about expensive Erewhon smoothies, even as legacy production increasingly flees to out-of-state hubs like Netflix's planned $1 billion studio in New Jersey.

`10:00` The Tax-Break Race to the Bottom and Studio Real Estate Hangover

State and international tax incentives have triggered an aggressive geographic race to the bottom, hollowing out physical production in Los Angeles. Hayes Davenport illustrates this migratory spiral through his own career: HBO's *Eastbound & Down* filmed in North Carolina until the state governor unilaterally killed the local film incentive, prompting the creative team to immediately pack up and cross state lines into South Carolina for *Vice Principals* and *The Righteous Gemstones*. Other projects followed identical economic paths, setting up TBS pilots in Vancouver or shifting routine studio setups across the Atlantic. Most startlingly, Fox now flies American game show casts, contestants, and stars like Rob Lowe to Dublin, Ireland to tape studio comedies and game shows that historically would have been shot on a Universal lot.

This international flight has left Los Angeles holding the bag on expensive physical infrastructure. Driven by the 2016 peak in local shooting days, institutional capital poured into speculative studio developments around 2019. Right down the street from the venue, a massive production complex on Santa Monica Boulevard and the 101 Freeway sat as a gaping hole in the ground for years. By the time construction was finally completed, structural entertainment demand had evaporated, saddling local commercial real estate with millions of square feet of soundstages that productions bypass in favor of cheaper foreign labor and tax rebates.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Production Flight from Los Angeles accDescr: Flowchart illustrating how film and television productions migrate across state lines and overseas chasing tax breaks. subgraph DomesticFlight["Domestic Incentive Chasing"] NC["North Carolina (Incentives eliminated)"] -->|Productions relocate| SC["South Carolina (Vice Principals, Righteous Gemstones)"] end subgraph GlobalArbitrage["International Labor & Tax Arbitrage"] LA["Los Angeles Soundstages (Peak 2016-2019 overbuild)"] -->|Pilots & Dramas| VAN["Vancouver, Canada"] LA -->|Fox Game Shows & Comedies| DUB["Dublin, Ireland (Rob Lowe, imported US casts)"] end ```

- **Incentive migration:** When North Carolina scrapped its film tax program, the Danny McBride creative team transplanted production to South Carolina for *Vice Principals* and continued there through *The Righteous Gemstones*. - **Runaway studio formats:** Rather than operating on historic Los Angeles studio lots, network game shows and multi-cam comedies regularly film in Dublin, Ireland to exploit favorable tax treaties and offshore labor costs. - **Stranded real estate assets:** Major Los Angeles studio developments financed around 2019—such as the massive facility at Santa Monica Boulevard and the 101—came online right into a collapsed production market.

---

`12:08` The Demise of the 30-Writer Room and the Rise of the Mini Room

Addressing why television has historically relied on collaborative writers' rooms rather than the single-scribe model common in theater or feature film, Davenport points out a stark economic split. Studios increasingly favor the "Mike White model"—where a single auteur writes every episode of *The White Lotus* solo—simply because it eliminates staff overhead. However, high-velocity comedy requires a collective brain. In joke-dense series like *Great News* or *Family Guy*, the sheer volume of punchlines cannot be generated by an isolated creator. During Davenport’s tenure, *Family Guy* employed an astonishing 30 writers, an era of abundant comedy staffing that has since vanished forever.

The term "mini room" has undergone a dark linguistic evolution. In peak network comedy, a "mini room" meant a splinter group of seven writers breaking off into a secondary office for an hour just to punch up a single elusive joke. Today, seven writers constitutes a luxury full-sized room. On recent productions, showrunners are often budgeted to hire just one additional writer for a two-week sprint to outline the entire arc before being forced to write every script themselves. Ironically, the WGA strike agreements established strict thresholds mandating minimum room sizes and employment durations whenever a formal writers' room is triggered, which has perversely encouraged some studios to avoid opening standard rooms altogether.

Inside a high-density animated comedy room, pitching required performative mimicry: writers had to deliver lines in character voices to test whether the joke would land before an audience. On *Family Guy*, if a writer couldn't pull off Lois Griffin's distinct Rhode Island rasp, their joke rarely made the cut. While Peter was universally considered intuitive and fun to write for, Brian required subtle timing, and Seth Green's vocal delivery for Chris was regarded by the staff as near impossible to replicate in person.

- **The auteur loophole:** Single-creator series like *The White Lotus* demonstrate the studio-preferred model of eliminating room costs by having one person write the entire season. - **The evolution of the "mini room":** Once defined as a seven-writer punch-up group dedicated to refining a single gag on *Family Guy*, seven writers now represents the upper limit of an entire series staff. - **WGA minimum triggers:** Guild contract rules requiring specific room headcounts and guaranteed employment lengths have shifted studio calculus toward brief season-outlining engagements rather than long-term room staffing. - **Vocal pitching:** Room acceptance for *Family Guy* scripts depended heavily on room performances, where Peter was easiest to pitch, Brian required delicate comedic nuance, and Lois required accurate mimicry to get a laugh.

---

`17:10` The Endless Catalog: Competing with Streaming Libraries and Memes

The cultural afterlife of classic television has erected an unprecedented commercial barrier for any new project trying to gain traction. Shows like *Family Guy* have transformed into the internet’s universal memetic language, generating endlessly adaptable screenshot templates and reaction clips that saturate social platforms daily. But that ubiquity carries a brutal industry cost: every original premiere is forced to compete against the full, active weight of television history. Decades ago, a network program competed solely against whatever was airing on rival channels at 8:00 PM; today, new programming fights for viewer attention against twenty years of legacy catalog permanently available on the same digital dashboard.

This dynamic has fundamentally distorted the financial valuation of entertainment libraries. While blue-chip evergreen comedy hits like *The Office* or *Family Guy* still command exorbitant licensing checks because they reliably anchor subscriber retention, the vast middle tier of the streaming back-catalog has cratered in worth. As studios look to trim balance sheets, indiscriminate catalog buying has ended. These mounting economic pressures are setting the stage for deep cultural friction over artificial intelligence, with Davenport characterizing Los Angeles as one of the least AI-friendly, most protective labor markets in the nation as creative professionals watch tech encroachment threaten an industry that was already bleeding out.

- **Streaming catalog competition:** "The entire library is competition, not just what's on the other network at the same time," forcing brand-new series to outperform frictionless access to decades of beloved legacy television. - **Bifurcated library values:** Top-tier legacy hits retain immense commercial power as streaming tentpoles, while broad back-catalog filler has rapidly depreciated in asset value. - **Industry hostility toward AI:** Entertainment workers entering 2026 view generative tech through an existential lens, making Los Angeles a fiercely anti-AI bastion compared to other business hubs.

`20:00` Generative AI Stigma and the Below-the-Line Crisis

While generative AI has become widely adopted as an everyday utility similar to a search engine, an intense stigma still surrounds its creative use in Hollywood. On his podcast *Hollywood Handbook*, Hayes Davenport recently hosted a guest who had worked on a project featuring a single component generated with artificial intelligence, sparking immediate and intense pushback. The hostility stems directly from the existential threat the technology poses to working-class entertainment labor—the "below-the-line" economy encompassing production crews, hair and makeup artists, set designers, and grips. Having spent years working in Los Angeles City Hall, Davenport emphasizes that any collapse in this sector triggers immediate, damaging ripple effects across the entire municipal economy, making AI adoption a hard line many in the local industry refuse to cross.

Although the Writers Guild of America (WGA) secured contractual guardrails around AI usage following the 2023 strike, questions linger over how long studios will abide by their spirit or seek workarounds. Davenport notes he has yet to hear of an actual television show written by AI, and studios are not yet claiming algorithms can replace writers' rooms. However, the boundaries are already blurring in source material. At *LA Material*, Davenport covered an emerging trend where studios increasingly option short stories from Reddit or anonymous online authors as intellectual property rather than traditional prestige literature. Determining whether these anonymously penned stories were drafted with generative AI is nearly impossible, illustrating how algorithmic material may seep into development pipelines through the back door.

- **Below-the-Line Exposure:** Production crew positions—including camera operators, grips, hair and makeup, and art department staff—face the most immediate disruption from generative tools compared to above-the-line talent. - **Unregulated IP Sourcing:** Unvetted short stories sourced from message boards like Reddit are increasingly acquired for adaptation, bypassing traditional literary vetting where AI detection is unmonitored. - **Enforcement Limits:** While union contracts regulate official studio assignments, Davenport points out that no union can police what independent or aspiring creators do in their own homes before selling material.

---

`22:30` Why Horror Thrives While Comedy Fails the AI Test

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: The Divergent Fates of Horror and Comedy in Hollywood accDescr: Flowchart illustrating why horror succeeds in theaters and how comedy's decline coincides with AI vulnerability in screenwriting.

subgraph Horror["Horror: Thriving Theatrical Model"] H1["Low to Mid Budgets"] --> H2["High Commercial Upside"] H2 --> H3["Proven Theatrical Draw (e.g., Blumhouse)"] H3 --> H4["Lures Top Comedy Talent (Jordan Peele, Zach Cregger)"] end

subgraph Comedy["Comedy: Shrinking & Structurally Vulnerable"] C1["Low Perceived Box Office Upside"] --> C2["Fewer Studio Productions"] C2 --> C3["Hardest Genre for AI to Replicate"] C3 --> C4["High Algorithmic Risk for Outlines & Simpler Formats"] end ```

When asked whether studios are actively courting AI startups promising automated scripts, Davenport points to the genre dynamics dictating studio balance sheets. Right now, horror is the single most commercially viable genre in Hollywood. Pioneered by low-budget, high-return powerhouses like Jason Blum's Blumhouse Productions—which famously launched franchises like *Paranormal Activity* on shoestring budgets—horror consistently turns modest mid-budget investments into millions at the box office. This financial vitality has even drawn top comedic talents over to horror filmmaking, including Jordan Peele and Zach Cregger (formerly of the sketch troupe *The Whitest Kids U' Know* and director of *Barbarian*).

Comedy, by contrast, has experienced a steep decline because studios no longer view it as a reliable theatrical draw. Paradoxically, while comedy is the hardest genre for AI models to emulate—as Davenport observes, "none of them are funny yet"—the overall contraction of comedy productions leaves comedic writers doubly exposed. AI models can already construct outlines, structural beats, and generic narrative architecture for formulaic genres with relative ease. Even if studios currently hesitate to deploy automated scripts outright, Davenport warns that capable story-generation tools are not part of some distant future; the technology is sitting "right there" waiting for studios to pull the trigger.

- **The Blumhouse Formula:** Horror remains a haven for mid-budget films because theatrical audiences reliably show up, providing a favorable risk-to-reward ratio that studios no longer see in original comedies. - **The Talent Migration:** Major comedic creators like Jordan Peele and Zach Cregger transitioned to horror, where original filmmaking retains institutional financing and broad theatrical distribution. - **Structural Vulnerability:** Even if AI cannot master comic timing or genuine wit, its ability to churn out outlines and script treatments threatens standard development jobs across more formulaic cinematic genres.

---

`24:10` Competing with Free Content and the Joe Weisenthal Test

Asked whether he has ever experimented with AI comedy writing—such as prompting a model to draft a Peter Griffin joke from his days on *Family Guy*—Davenport jokes that acting as an "AI guy" might be his only route back onto the show. He admits his father, a business professor who predicted the rise of machine learning for years, frequently sends him ChatGPT outputs to showcase its progress. While Davenport believes writing and acting will be among the last human disciplines fully replaced, he notes that film and television have already spent the last two decades fighting an uphill battle against "the sum of all human creativity produced and distributed for free, algorithmically sorted exactly to your specifications."

``` +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | THE "FREE" CONTENT PARADOX | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | "You talk about AI being cheaper — it is not as cheap as free." | | | | * Traditional Media: Battered for 20 years by search aggregation & social feeds | | * User-Generated Content: Billions of unpaid creative hours consumed daily | | * The Bottleneck: Finite human waking hours, not the volume of machine output | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ```

Joe Weisenthal parallels Hollywood's existential dread with the collapse of print journalism, another industry that took repeated blows from Google News, social aggregation, and free online content long before generative models existed. Weisenthal notes that while AI claims to make content creation cheaper, nothing competes with "free," especially when human beings have a finite number of waking consumption hours each day. Testing the technology himself, Weisenthal reveals his personal benchmark for each new model release: commanding it to write ten tweets in the style of Joe Weisenthal. Most fall completely flat, though one recent generation caught him off guard by mimicking his analytical tone: *"The 10-year yield doesn't care about your feelings. And frankly, it doesn't care about mine either."* While not quite his authentic voice, Weisenthal conceded with a laugh, "they're in the area."

---

`26:30` City Hall Realities: How Hollywood Production Feeds LA's Ecosystem

Drawing on his tenure inside Los Angeles City Hall from 2021 to 2024, Davenport explains how the collapse in production shoot days radiates across the entire local economy. While common wisdom holds that entertainment makes up only around 20% of LA's regional output, Davenport warns that the industry cannot be viewed in a silo. Billions of entertainment dollars historically subsidized the city's broader small-business footprint. Restaurants already pushed to the brink of insolvency by COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns were finally shoved into bankruptcy by the prolonged halt in production during the 2023 strikes and the slow post-strike recovery.

The economic fallout touches granular daily commerce. A bustling studio lot or a fully staffed writers' room generates massive recurring spending, from catered lunches and late-night dinners to supply runs and neighborhood services. When studio backlots are vacant—devoid of the classic scene of extras dressed as Roman legionnaires or cowboys walking to local delis—neighborhood vendors wither. Davenport points out that entertainment production also fuels Los Angeles's cultural cachet and tourism engine. Hit series like Issa Rae's *Insecure* brought specific South Los Angeles neighborhoods to life, driving tourism and real estate interest. He cites the dark comedy *Ingrid Goes West*, starring Aubrey Plaza as an obsessive woman who falls in love with an idealized Venice Beach and Joshua Tree aesthetic presented by an Instagram influencer (played by Elizabeth Olsen), to illustrate how screen media directly manufactures the lifestyle myths that drive people, money, and commerce into Southern California.

`30:00` The Demise of L.A. Nightlife, Writers' Rooms, and the Death of the Monoculture

Hayes Davenport reflects on how Los Angeles has transformed into an artifact of an earlier era that no longer exists in the same way. He illustrates this shift with a story about Emily Sundberg, author of the popular Substack newsletter *Feed Me*, which chronicles social life and cultural events in New York. While visiting Los Angeles, Sundberg admitted she had no evening plans and was simply going to stay in her hotel room because she couldn't find anything going on. Davenport notes that L.A.'s recovery around nightlife and public events has lagged significantly: the legendary culture of wild Hollywood parties in the Hollywood Hills has largely vanished, replaced by an insular "DoorDash nightlife culture."

When asked whether writing comedy serves as effective preparation for working in City Hall, Davenport contrasts the physical and mental rhythm of the two environments. In a traditional television writers' room, "the meeting is the entire day." Writers sit in the exact same chair from morning until night—to the point where sitting in a different chair feels unnatural—and "everyone gets used to each other's smell, in, like, a good way." In contrast, municipal government work in Los Angeles required constant driving to different neighborhoods across the city, providing a needed lifestyle change, even if both spheres share a distinct sense of bureaucratic absurdity.

The conversation turns to the decline of the cultural monoculture and traditional movie stardom. A classic tourist ritual in L.A. is visiting the Hollywood Walk of Fame or taking a celebrity bus tour, but the machinery that minted universally recognized movie stars has effectively ground to a halt. While megastars like Taylor Swift still command universal recognition, Davenport observes that modern fame is highly fragmented. Today, you can sit in a restaurant and watch patrons enthusiastically approach someone for photos without having any idea who that person is or why they are famous—leaving you to wonder, "Should I do that too, like just in case?"

- **The *L.A. Times* "Sunday Funday" Ritual**: Davenport admits to being obsessed with reading the *Los Angeles Times* feature where celebrities lay out their ideal Sundays. Despite their fame, almost every celebrity details nearly identical routines: going on a hike, shopping at one of three local farmers markets, and staying in to stream TV with their spouse. - **The Persistence of '90s Stardom**: The iconic old-school institutions of celebrity nightlife—such as the historic Trocadero or Sardi's—are long gone. While older stars like George Clooney are still around and working, modern celebrity sightings mostly happen in daylight at the Hollywood Farmers Market.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Hollywood Stardom and Culture Shift accDescr: Diagram contrasting classic Hollywood monoculture with contemporary fragmented celebrity culture.

subgraph ClassicEra["Classic Hollywood Era"] A["Universal Movie Stars (e.g., George Clooney)"] --> B["Monoculture & Major Studios"] B --> C["Visible Public Nightlife (Trocadero, Hills Parties)"] end

subgraph ModernEra["Contemporary Hollywood Era"] D["Niche Influencers & Fragmented Fame"] --> E["Algorithmic Silos & Streaming"] E --> F["DoorDash Nightlife & Farmers Markets"] end ```

`35:00` Show Wrap-Up and Closing

The live conversation concludes with the hosts thanking Hayes Davenport for walking through the structural decline of Hollywood production, the evolution of writers' work, and life in Los Angeles. The hosts remind listeners where to find Davenport's work, highlight the daily *Odd Lots* newsletter, invite the community to join the dedicated Discord channel, and sign off the episode before closing credits and commercial announcements.

## Notable quotes > `00:00` just a total coincidence — Hayes Davenport

> `02:50` survive till '25

> `17:10` The entire library is competition, not just what's on the other network at the same time — Hayes Davenport

> `22:30` none of them are funny yet — Hayes Davenport

> `24:10` the sum of all human creativity produced and distributed for free, algorithmically sorted exactly to your specifications — Hayes Davenport

> `24:10` You talk about AI being cheaper — it is not as cheap as free. — Joe Weisenthal

> `24:10` The 10-year yield doesn't care about your feelings. And frankly, it doesn't care about mine either. — Joe Weisenthal

> `24:10` they're in the area — Joe Weisenthal

> `30:00` the meeting is the entire day — Hayes Davenport

> `30:00` everyone gets used to each other's smell, in, like, a good way — Hayes Davenport

> `30:00` Should I do that too, like just in case? — Hayes Davenport

## Mentioned The Vermont Hollywood, Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Hayes Davenport, Family Guy, Eastbound & Down, LA Material, Hollywood Handbook, Writers Guild of America (WGA), SAG-AFTRA, Netflix, House of Cards, Amazon, Comedy Central, Erewhon, Rob Lowe, Universal, Vice Principals, The Righteous Gemstones, Mike White, The White Lotus, Great News, Seth Green, The Office, Reddit, Jason Blum, Blumhouse Productions, Paranormal Activity, Jordan Peele, Zach Cregger, The Whitest Kids U' Know, Barbarian, ChatGPT, Issa Rae, Insecure, Ingrid Goes West, Aubrey Plaza, Elizabeth Olsen, Emily Sundberg, Feed Me, Taylor Swift, Los Angeles Times, George Clooney, Trocadero, Sardi's

## Video description Is Hollywood just screwed? Writers are earning less. There are fewer shoots taking place in Los Angeles. And people are freaked out about AI. But according to Hayes Davenport, things were starting to feel bad in Hollywood before chatbots showed up to the scene. Davenport — who’s written for shows like Family Guy and is now creative director of LA Material and the co-host of the fantastic Hollywood Handbook podcast — joined us on stage at the Vermont to give us a history lesson on Hollywood's steady decline from the pandemic to now. We also get into the changing norms of AI use among entertainment professionals and why Davenport is jealous of New York right now. Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-20/jon-voight-spent-months-courting-trump-on-tax-help-for-hollywood?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Jon Voight Spent Months Courting Trump on Tax Help for Hollywood</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/paramount-to-settle-lawsuits-paving-way-for-warner-bros-merger?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Paramount to Settle Lawsuits, Paving Way for Warner Bros.</a> Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a> <a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">discord.gg/oddlots</a>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.

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中文简报

税收优惠致制作外流，洛杉矶拍摄天数跌破2万天在生成式AI出现前数年，洛杉矶娱乐产业就已因制作外流税收补贴、流媒体剧库饱和以及编剧室缩减而被掏空。电视编剧 Hayes Davenport 阐明了好莱坞的经济低迷早于生成式AI的出现，洛杉矶外景拍摄天数从2016年峰值的40,000天骤降至不足20,000天就证明了这一点。对话详细阐述了传统有线电视的衰退、流媒体片库过剩以及激进的税收套利，如何将传统30人的喜剧编剧团队掏空为极度精简的“微型编剧室”，同时促使实体制作迁出加州。尽管生成式AI在当地娱乐从业人员中遭到强烈抵制，但 Davenport 指出，技术侵蚀威胁到了基层演职人员的生计以及公式化的开发流程，而这些原本就已在应对海量免费数字媒体的竞争中苦苦挣扎。这种持续的制作低迷严重打击了更广泛的洛杉矶市政经济，侵蚀了街区餐饮业、当地夜生活以及共同的大众文化认同。洛杉矶外景拍摄天数已从2016年约40,000天的峰值暴跌超过50%至20,000天以下，表明好莱坞的经济收缩在生成式AI问世之前就早已开始。 (2:50) 受各州及国际激进税收优惠政策的影响，制作业务纷纷撤出加州，导致电视网前往都柏林录制标准演播室游戏节目，并使洛杉矶新竣工的摄影棚项目陷入停滞。 (10:00) 编剧室经历了严重的裁员减编，从昔日30人的喜剧团队萎缩至单一主创项目和骨干“微型编剧室”，与此同时，新剧目还要面临与流媒体沉淀数十年的海量永久旧片库的激烈竞争。 (12:08) 当地产业面临严重的连锁波及，基层剧组成员和餐馆等市政商户受到威胁，而用户生成的免费内容则在持续压低专业影视媒体的商业价值。 (24:10)

Reading summary

Television writer Hayes Davenport argues that Hollywood's existential crisis predates generative artificial intelligence, driven by an unprecedented collapse in regional production, structural streaming cutbacks, and aggressive tax arbitrage. Production Halving and the Tax Incentive Flight (2:50) The contraction of Hollywood is rooted in physical production data rather than creative sentiment. On-location shoot days in Los Angeles peaked at approximately 40,000 in 2016 before settling near 37,000 in 2019 and 2022. Following the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, which sank activity to 25,000 shoot days, volumes failed to rebound under the industry's anticipated 'survive till '25' timeline, falling below 20,000—a more than 50% drop from peak levels. This decline was accelerated by interstate and global tax-incentive competition. Productions routinely migrate across borders chasing rebates, such as Danny McBride's creative team relocating from North Carolina to South Carolina, or Fox filming American game shows and multi-camera comedies in Dublin, Ireland. This migratory flight has stranded major Los Angeles real estate developments financed around 2019, leaving millions of square feet of newly built soundstage capacity empty. Streaming Economics and the Vanishing Writers' Room (12:08) The transition from ad-supported basic cable to streaming disrupted Hollywood's labor dynamics. As networks like Comedy Central halted scripted orders, streaming platforms fueled an initial hiring spree that expanded Writers Guild of America (WGA) membership rolls in the late 2010s just as production volume was peaking. When streaming spending subsequently retrenched, newer writers were cut loose into an oversupplied market. Simultaneously, studios curtailed traditional collaborative staffing in favor of the 'Mike White model'—hiring single auteurs to write entire seasons alone to eliminate overhead. Where network comedies like *Family Guy* once maintained 30-writer rooms, the modern 'mini room' has shrunk drastically. While a mini room once described a splinter group of seven writers punching up a single joke, seven writers now represents the upper boundary of an entire staff, with studios frequently contracting solo writers for two-week sprints to outline complete story arcs. Catalog Overhang and Competition from Free Media (17:10) New television programming faces severe commercial headwinds because it competes directly against streaming back-catalogs. Unlike legacy broadcast television, which competed only against rival networks in a given time slot, new releases are placed directly alongside decades of evergreen hits like *The Office* and *Family Guy*. While top-tier comedy libraries retain enormous value as retention anchors and viral meme engines, valuations for the broader middle tier of back-catalog filler have sharply depreciated. Furthermore, the industry is constrained by finite consumer attention. Traditional media has spent two decades losing ground to free, algorithmically sorted user-generated content. As co-host Joe Weisenthal notes in drawing parallels to the decline of print journalism, commercial entertainment faces an uphill battle against unpaid online media because automated content tools can never produce material cheaper than 'free.' Below-the-Line Exposure and Algorithmic Sourcing (20:00) While generative AI faces fierce stigma in Los Angeles creative circles, Davenport warns that its most immediate damage targets working-class 'below-the-line' crew members, including camera operators, set builders, and hair and makeup artists. Drawing on his tenure in Los Angeles City Hall, Davenport notes that idling studio lots trigger immediate municipal distress, depressing spending at local restaurants and neighborhood vendors dependent on production ecosystems. Although studios have not deployed fully automated scripts for television, algorithmic material is entering pipelines through unvetted intellectual property, such as studios optioning anonymous short stories from Reddit. Davenport also observes a genre divergence: while horror thrives theatrically on low-budget, high-yield commercial models (such as Blumhouse), comedy has dried up in theatrical distribution. Paradoxically, although comedy remains the most difficult format for generative models to execute convincingly, its institutional decline leaves comedic writers structurally exposed as AI models master outlines and formulaic narrative beats. Davenport concludes that while creative writing and acting may be among the last human roles entirely displaced by automation, the business of Hollywood is already impaired by macroeconomic flight and overbuilt infrastructure. The broader question remains whether guild contractual guardrails can protect below-the-line labor when studios face continuous pressure to lower production overhead.

精炼阅读摘要

资深电视编剧Hayes Davenport在接受《Odd Lots》采访时指出，好莱坞的结构性衰退早在生成式人工智能普及前便已发生，当地制作拍摄天数的急剧萎缩、税收套利驱动的产业外流以及流媒体对传统电视模式的重塑，是导致当前洛杉矶影视生态深度危机的根本原因。拍摄天数腰斩与产业空间外流 (2:50) Davenport依据行业硬指标指出，洛杉矶的外景拍摄天数（涵盖真人秀、剧集及商业广告）在2016年达到约40,000天的历史高点，2019年降至约37,000天。尽管2021年经历疫情积压项目的短暂反弹，但2023年编剧工会（WGA）与演员工会（SAG-AFTRA）的双重罢工将拍摄天数直接压缩至25,000天；而业界寄望的“熬到2025（survive till '25）”复苏并未兑现，2024年拍摄天数进一步跌破20,000天，较顶峰时期萎缩超过50%。拍摄缩水的核心推手之一是跨区域与跨国税收优惠政策引发的“逐底竞争”。Davenport以自身履历说明，HBO剧集《体育老师笑传》（Eastbound & Down）在北卡罗来纳州取消税收激励后，团队便立即转入南卡罗来纳州拍摄《副校长》（Vice Principals）和《宝石拯救队》（The Righteous Gemstones）。甚至福克斯电视台（Fox）为了利用税收协定与廉价海外劳力，将包括主持人Rob Lowe在内的美国游戏节目全班人马送往爱尔兰都柏林录制。这种产能流失导致洛杉矶在2019年前后基于产能峰值大举投资的商业摄影棚资产大量空置，例如圣莫尼卡大道与101高速公路交会处新建的大型影棚直接面临产能过剩与需求蒸发的双重打击。编剧室微型化与庞大内容片库的挤压 (12:08) 从有线电视向流媒体的转轨根本性破坏了影视创作的雇佣生态。2010年代末期，传统有线频道大幅削减原创剧集，而流媒体的大举招聘使美国编剧工会（WGA）会员人数激增。当制作规模随后收缩时，大批编剧被边缘化。工作室越发青睐《白莲花度假村》（The White Lotus）的单人创作模式以消除团队开销，曾经在《恶搞之家》（Family Guy）中容纳30名编剧的常态彻底不复存在。所谓的“微型编剧室（mini room）”过去指7人规模的精炼润色小组，如今7人已是全剧组的编制上限，多数项目甚至退化为仅雇佣一名编剧进行为期两周的框架梳理。与此同时，原创内容还要直接对抗长达数十年的庞大数字片库。以往节目仅需与同档期的竞争频道争夺受众，而如今流媒体首页将海量历史剧集置于同等获取路径。《恶搞之家》或《办公室》（The Office）等常青情景喜剧凭借转变成网络模因（meme）持续锚定订阅用户，但中腰部历史版权价值大幅贬值。工作室停止盲目采购版权的同时，新剧集面临着前所未有的用户注意力壁垒。生成式AI渗透与底层制作劳工的生存隐忧 (20:00) 在好莱坞，围绕生成式人工智能的伦理与职业污名极其强烈，洛杉矶已成为全美对AI态度最具戒心与防御性的劳工市场之一。尽管编剧工会在2023年罢工协议中争取到了针对AI的使用护栏，且目前尚未出现纯AI撰写的电视节目，但算法工具正在通过源头素材渗透。Davenport以《LA Material》的报道为例指出，制片厂正越来越多地购买来自Reddit等论坛的匿名短篇网络故事进行IP改编，而平台和工会完全无法核实这些独立创作者在个人设备上撰写的内容是否由生成式AI产出。相比处于聚光灯下的台前与编剧人员，真正的生存冲击首当其冲落在“线下制作（below-the-line）”劳工身上，包括摄影师、灯光师、化妆师、服装及道具搭景人员。虽然AI现阶段难以捕捉喜剧创作中复杂的包袱节奏与语言张力，但它在快速生成故事大纲、剧本结构及标准类型片范式上已具备高度可用性。在商业回报极低导致制片厂削减喜剧投资、反而转向低成本高票房的恐怖片（如Blumhouse模式）的大环境下，标准化剧本工种被算法辅助工具替代的门槛已被极大拉低。市政经济的溢出效应与单一流行文化的解体 (26:30) 结合其2021年至2024年在洛杉矶市政府工作的经历，Davenport强调影视工业绝非与当地经济割裂的独立孤岛。虽然影视业常被估算为仅占洛杉矶地区生产总值的约20%，但其庞大的现场服务与常态化开销实质上构成了当地小型商业的生命线。摄影棚及编剧室的长期运转为外卖餐饮、硬件服务商及周边供应商提供了持续现金流；疫情受挫叠加2023年停工与罢工后迟缓的复苏，最终将大量临界状态的本地餐厅推向破产边缘。影视制作的萎缩同时侵蚀了洛杉矶向全球输出生活方式神话并带动文旅房产的能力。过往经典影视项目为特定街区赋予了文化吸引力，如今好莱坞的传统造星机器已基本停摆，曾经由极少数超级巨星维系的全国性单一流行文化被碎片化的算法内容所取代。洛杉矶的公共社交文化正在退化为足不出户的“外卖夜生活（DoorDash nightlife）”，反映出影视产业链重构对整座城市文化与物理空间的深刻重塑。 Davenport与主持人最后指出，好莱坞所面临的终极困境本质上与传统平面媒体在过去二十年遭遇的衰落相似：内容生产不仅面临机器生成带来的降本压力，更在根本上面对着全球海量无偿算法分发内容对受众有限清醒时间的争夺。尽管编剧与表演可能仍是人类较晚被算法彻底替代的领域，但在制作外流与商业模式重构的合力下，旧好莱坞的繁荣生态短期内恐难以重建。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 本期节目由彭博社（Bloomberg）旗下播客《Odd Lots》于 2026 年 9 月 25 日在 RSS 及网络平台发布。根据页面介绍，曾为《恶搞之家》编剧、现任 LA Material 创意总监的 Hayes Davenport 在洛杉矶佛蒙特剧院的现场秀中登台，向主持人 Tracy Alloway 和 Joe Weisenthal 剖析好莱坞自疫情以来的衰退史，探讨 AI 出现前整个行业便已显现的危机以及好莱坞从业者对 AI 日益变化的观念。 ## TL;DR 节目深入剖析了洛杉矶影视工业自 2016 年巅峰以来制作量腰斩的严峻现实，指出跨州与海外的“税收逐底竞争”以及流媒体商业模式转型早在生成式 AI 普及前就重创了传统编剧室。尽管从业者将喜剧视作 AI 极难攻克的堡垒，但算法对大纲提炼与概念策划的渗透正直接威胁到妆发、置景等庞大的幕后“线下工种”。好莱坞影视制作的持续萎缩不仅瓦解了单一大众文化与超级巨星生产机制，更向外波及到洛杉矶本地的餐饮消费与夜生活活力，使这座曾经的文化输出之都逐步陷入身份退化与实体经济衰退的双重困境。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对话在轻松幽默与严峻现实的交织中展开，现场观众的笑声与台上自嘲式的行业吐槽形成了微妙的黑色幽默氛围。嘉宾 Hayes Davenport 凭借编剧的敏锐与市政厅任职的双重视角，以冷静克制又不乏辛辣讽刺的叙事，将数据背后的萧条剖析得淋漓尽致。主持人的适时追问与幽默互动推动着情绪走向深沉，让听众在会心一笑的同时，深切体会到创意工作者面对产业与技术双重巨震时的清醒与无力感。 ## Bulletin - `03:00` 洛杉矶影视制作拍摄天数从2016年峰值的约40,000天腰斩至2025年的不足20,000天，罢工后业界流传的“熬到25年”（Survive till '25）复苏预期彻底破灭。 - `10:00` 各州与跨国税收抵免引发“逐底竞争”，导致大量影视制作外迁至北卡、南卡、温哥华乃至爱尔兰都柏林，洛杉矶面临严重的摄影棚资产过剩与闲置危机。 - `12:12` 传统大型编剧室机制瓦解，“迷你编剧室”与单人作者制盛行，直接冲击了喜剧创作赖以生存的高密度笑点打磨流程及青年编剧的成长通道。 - `20:00` 生成式 AI 在洛杉矶面临极高道德污名，尽管难以攻克复杂的喜剧创作，但已能有效生成类型片叙事大纲，并直接威胁到妆发、置景等庞大的“线下工种”及城市实体经济。 ## Key takeaways - `03:00` 好莱坞制作指标断崖式下滑：洛杉矶年拍摄天数自2016年的40,000天高点一路回落，经历2023年编剧与演员工会双重大罢工后，2025年跌破20,000天，行业未能迎来预期的报复性反弹。 - `05:00` 流媒体崛起掩盖了有线电视崩溃：早期流媒体的激增扩充了编剧工会队伍，但随着制作总量腰斩，缺乏稳定生计的新人编剧被迫打零工或搬离洛杉矶。 - `06:30` 城市叙事权向纽约转移：洛杉矶的流行文化输出退化为网红打卡与高端果昔，而纽约凭借街头短视频重掌全球城市文化话语权。 - `10:00` 税收补贴引发影视制作逃离加州：剧组紧跟税收优惠频繁迁徙，甚至游戏节目与情景喜剧远赴都柏林录制，导致洛杉矶本地新建摄影棚陷入严重过剩。 - `12:12` 喜剧工业化编剧室走向消亡：单人编剧虽然降低了制片厂成本，但破坏了多兵种协作即兴抛梗的创作模式，《恶搞之家》30人规模的超级编剧室已成为历史。 - `12:12` 工会规则与资方博弈的副作用：针对编剧室人数与雇佣时长的最低限制条款，反而促使制片厂尽量避免触发门槛，转向更极限的“迷你编剧室”或极短期雇佣。 - `17:40` 新剧面临海量旧内容库的贴身肉搏：在流媒体时代，新项目不仅要竞争同档期剧集，还必须与算法推荐下的几十年存量影视库零和博弈。 - `17:40` 洛杉矶成为全美对 AI 抵触情绪最强烈的城市：在行业衰退与罢工创伤后，从业者对算法侵入核心创意及使用 AI 普遍存在道德审判与戒备心态。 - `20:00` AI 威胁直指洛杉矶“线下工种”（below-the-line）根基：妆发、置景、场务等蓝领岗位与本地餐饮零售紧密绑定，一旦因虚拟制作或减产失业，将对洛杉矶实体经济造成链式打击。 - `22:30` 类型片市场分化折射 AI 能力边界：高度依赖荒诞与反讽尺度的喜剧片全面衰退且 AI 极难模仿；而注重情节点布局与类型套路的恐怖片保持繁荣，剧本大纲极易被 AI 解析。 - `25:00` 影视创作长期直面“免费互联网内容”的冲击：编剧早已在全网零成本段子与算法推荐的包围中脱敏，因此单纯主打低成本的 AI 并未在本质上带来前所未有的威胁。 - `26:30` 好莱坞停摆重创洛杉矶实体餐饮与外卖经济：片场开工日锐减直接切断了群演剧组团餐和编剧室昂贵外卖订单，推倒了本地众多小微餐馆的生存多米诺骨牌。 - `26:30` 影视生活方式输出能力减弱影响文旅吸附力：经典影视剧曾是洛杉矶生活方式的最佳广告牌，制作萎缩正在削弱该市对全球移居者和消费者的文化吸引力。 - `32:38` 单一主流文化（Monoculture）彻底解体：伴随90年代巨星时代的终结，洛杉矶不再能批量产出全民知晓的超级巨星，名流文化退化为垂直圈层狂欢或农贸市场偶遇。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` 现场开场与好莱坞编剧的生存现状彭博社旗下播客《Odd Lots》在洛杉矶好莱坞的佛蒙特剧院（The Vermont Hollywood）举办了首场线下现场秀。主持人 Tracy Alloway 与 Joe Weisenthal 登上舞台，向观众介绍本场的第一位重磅嘉宾——曾参与《痞子神探》（Eastbound & Down）和知名动画喜剧《恶搞之家》（Family Guy）编剧工作的 Hayes Davenport。Hayes 目前担任媒体机构 LA Material 的创意总监，同时也是备受喜爱的播客节目《Hollywood Handbook》的联合主持人。开场气氛十分轻松幽默。Joe 开玩笑说，当着一位同为专业播客主持人的面做节目，心里难免有些紧张；Hayes 则调侃道，洛杉矶到处都是播客专业人士，“观众席里甚至就坐着一位专门打播客官司的律师，在洛杉矶大家彼此都认识”。随后 Tracy 提起，自己最喜欢的一季电视剧就是《恶搞之家》第 13 季，Hayes 笑着接梗称那绝对是最好的一季，因为那刚好是他参与编剧的一季，这“纯属巧合”。玩笑过后，Tracy 抛出了一个直击当下娱乐行业核心的沉重问题：“好莱坞现在是不是彻底完蛋（cooked）了？”从编剧收入断崖式下滑，到洛杉矶本地影视拍摄量锐减，再到生成式 AI 的步步紧逼，整个行业弥漫着前所未有的危机感与焦虑情绪。 --- ### `03:00` 拍摄天数减半：“熬到2025”幻灭的历史轨迹面对“好莱坞是否完蛋”的提问，Hayes 并没有诉诸空泛的情绪，而是列举了一组衡量洛杉矶影视工业健康状况的核心晴雨表数据——拍摄天数（Shoot Days，涵盖电影、电视剧、商业广告及真人秀等所有制作类型）。他清晰地梳理了洛杉矶制作业从巅峰一路滑坡的轨迹： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 洛杉矶拍摄天数演变历程 accDescr: 展示2016年至2025年洛杉矶影视拍摄天数从40000天下滑至不足20000天的走势 subgraph 繁荣与平台期 A["2016年巅峰 约 40,000 天"] --> B["2019年平台期 约 37,000 天"] end subgraph 疫情冲击与短暂反弹 B --> C["2020年疫情停摆 拍摄量骤降"] C --> D["2021年积压爆发 报复性反弹"] D --> E["2022年恢复常态 约 37,000 天"] end subgraph 罢工与二次探底 E --> F["2023年双重罢工 骤降至 25,000 天"] F --> G["2024年期望落空 降至 23,000 天"] G --> H["2025年 '熬到25'口号破灭 跌破 20,000 天（腰斩）"] end ``` Hayes 指出，洛杉矶全行业的拍摄天数在 2016 年达到顶峰，全年约有 40,000 个拍摄天。此后几年小幅回落并趋于平稳，到 2019 年维持在 37,000 天左右。紧接着 2020 年新冠疫情爆发，所有现场制作停摆；2021 年由于前期积压需求释放，制作量迎来剧烈反弹；到 2022 年，拍摄天数基本恢复至疫情前的 37,000 天水准。然而，真正的转折点发生在随后的几年： - **2023年行业大罢工**：美国编剧工会（WGA）与演员工会（SAG-AFTRA）相继发起长期罢工，导致全美影视制作陷入瘫痪，洛杉矶本地拍摄天数猛跌至 25,000 天。 - **2024年复苏乏力**：业界原本期盼罢工结束后会迎来爆发式复工，但实际数字不仅没有反弹，反而进一步萎缩至 23,000 天。 - **2025年“腰斩”现实**：好莱坞在罢工后曾广泛流传一句自我安慰的行业口号叫“熬到25年”（Survive till '25），许多从业者咬牙坚信只要挺到 2025 年产业就会回暖。但现实非常残酷，拍摄天数非但没有起色，反而跌破了 20,000 天大关，较 2016 年的峰值直接腰斩了一半以上。 --- ### `05:00` 有线电视崩塌与流媒体转型阵痛探讨 2016 年至 2019 年拍摄天数由盛转平的原因时，Hayes 剖析了传统有线电视向流媒体转型带来的深层结构变化。彼时 Netflix、Amazon 等流媒体巨头强势崛起，斥巨资搭建全新的内容网络。Hayes 回忆起自己刚入行时的情景，当时 Netflix 刚推出《纸牌屋》（House of Cards），好莱坞的传统编剧们甚至不知道该如何定义它，私下里直接把它当成一部普通的“网络剧”（web series）。流媒体剧集数量的狂飙，恰好掩盖了传统广播电视网和有线电视（Cable TV）的急剧衰退。Hayes 透露，他职业生涯早期主要为 Comedy Central 旗下的节目撰稿，但现在该频道几乎已经不再制作原创喜剧节目。从经纪人发给编剧的工作机会清单中，可以清晰感受到有线电视项目的迅速枯萎与流媒体的替代。这一转变直接影响了从业人员的职业生态： - **编剧工会人数虚高**：在 2010 年代后期，WGA 成员数量大幅增加。一方面是因为过去在有线电视行业工作的人仍保留工会资格，另一方面流媒体新剧的爆发又吸引了大量新人涌入好莱坞。 - **新人首当其冲**：随着过去几年总制作量腰斩，这批新入行的年轻创作者遭受的冲击最为惨烈，许多人甚至无法维持生计。 - **副业生存与转行迁徙**：大量失业编剧被迫离开洛杉矶回老家生活，或者转行去打零工。Hayes 提到，他目前任职的本地媒体 LA Material 专门做了一期报道，记录了那些曾经风光的好莱坞从业者为了生存而在洛杉矶从事各种临时工与副业的真实境遇。 --- ### `06:30` 创作者经济与城市叙事权的易手随着传统制片厂工业的衰退，讨论转向了蓬勃发展的网红与独立创作者（Influencer/Creator）经济。面对主持人关于网红经济是否在某种程度上抵消了好莱坞经济下行的疑问，Hayes 区分了“好莱坞传统产业”（The Industry，由各大制片厂和电视台构成）与“城市经济大盘”（The Economy）。他肯定了网红经济对洛杉矶本地资金流动的巨大价值，因为网红们从全球订阅者手中获得收入，并直接花在本地经济中。然而，在城市文化影响力上，Hayes 坦言洛杉矶正在失去其独一无二的“文化输出权”，并对纽约产生了强烈的嫉妒： - **短视频时代的纽约叙事**：在现代社交媒体平台上，纽约已经成为全球街头文化的代名词。随处可见创作者拿着麦克风在街头随机拦路提问：“你耳机里在听什么歌？”、“你的自信从哪里来？”或者“你在这套公寓付多少房租，能带我参观一下吗？” - **被动参与的街头焦虑**：Joe 忍不住插话坦言，自己对纽约街头这种随机采访文化感到极其恐惧。那些被拦下的路人仿佛别无选择只能配合，否则就会在数百万播放量的短视频里显得极不近人情，“如果不配合，你的切片就会被放出来，显得你很怪异，而其他人都答应了”。 - **洛杉矶文化符号的退化**：Hayes 深刻指出，这种看似有些蠢的街头采访短视频，实际上正在持续不断地向全美乃至全世界输出关于“纽约”的城市故事与魅力。而在过去数十年里，这个特权原本独属于洛杉矶——每一部好莱坞电影和电视剧里，总少不了威尼斯海滩步道（Venice boardwalk）和脚踩直排轮滑的加州女孩。 - **从影视帝国到高端果昔**：如今洛杉矶在社交媒体上最为人所知的文化输出，竟然降维成了高端有机超市 Erewhon 的天价果昔（Smoothies），连中欧的网民都知道洛杉矶的网红果昔。Tracy 笑称他们曾试图邀请 Erewhon 的 CEO 上节目，却得知对方从不接受媒体采访；Hayes 随之调侃，因为互联网上有成千上万的网红正在心甘情愿地免费替他们打广告。在谈到地理层面的产业流失时，主持人提到了令人深思的新闻事实：Netflix 已经决定斥资 10 亿美元在新泽西州建设大型制片基地。洛杉矶明明拥有宜人的气候、成荫的棕榈树和成熟的配套，却正在残酷的市场竞争中被其他州逐步蚕食。 ### `10:00` 逃离加州：税收优惠引发的影视制作“逐底竞争”与摄影棚地产过剩好莱坞制作团队离开洛杉矶和加州，最核心的驱动力就是税收抵免优惠（Tax breaks）。全美各州之间已经展开了一场为了吸引剧组的“逐底竞争”（race to the bottom）。海耶斯·达文波特（Hayes Davenport）结合亲身经历指出，当他参与制作 HBO 喜剧《体育老师笑传》（Eastbound & Down）时，整个团队原本在北卡罗来纳州拍摄，但该州州长几乎以一己之力废除了当地的税收优惠政策。于是，原班团队紧接着制作下一部剧集《副校长》（Vice Principals）以及后来的《布朗森一家 / 正义宝石》（The Righteous Gemstones）时，便立刻收拾行李拔营“越过边界”，彻底搬到了南卡罗来纳州拍摄。剧组的流动完全是“追着税收优惠走”。这种外流不仅局限于跨州，还蔓延至全球： - 达文波特曾为 TBS 电视台拍摄试播集（Pilot），制作地点选在加拿大温哥华，如今他身边大量影视圈朋友也常驻温哥华开工。 - 最令人不可思议的现象发生在福克斯（Fox）的综艺节目和情景喜剧上——无论是单机位还是多机位喜剧，亦或是福克斯的游戏竞猜节目（Game shows），观众在电视上看到的画面实际上是在爱尔兰都柏林拍摄的。制作方宁愿把主持人罗伯·劳（Rob Lowe）和一群美国本土素人参赛选手千里迢迢用飞机运到都柏林录制，也不再使用像好莱坞环球影城（Universal Studios）这样原本可以让演职人员“录完还能回家睡在自己床上”的本土摄影棚。这一决策完全是由极具诱惑力的税收补贴和当地廉价劳动力成本驱动的。这一趋势给洛杉矶的本土实体设施带来了沉重打击。在 2016 年洛杉矶拍摄天数达到历史顶峰时期，市场上涌入了大量为摄影棚（Studio space）融资的资金。比如就在离活动现场不远、位于圣莫尼卡大道与 101 高速公路交会处的黄金地段，2019 年前后获得融资并开建了一座巨大的摄影棚综合体。那里曾长期是一个巨大的施工深坑，如今虽然全面竣工，但市场对于实体摄影棚的需求早已风光不再，好莱坞的摄影棚商业地产正面临严重的资产闲置与过剩危机。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 影视制作流出好莱坞路径 accDescr: 展示影视制作因税收与成本原因从洛杉矶向各州及海外转移的流动路线 subgraph Origin["加州洛杉矶 (传统制作中心)"] LA["实体摄影棚供应过剩 本地拍摄天数锐减"] end subgraph USMove["美国跨州逐底竞争"] NC["北卡罗来纳州 (取消税收优惠后遭弃)"] SC["南卡罗来纳州 (以新优惠接盘制作)"] NC -->|团队搬迁| SC end subgraph Overseas["海外离岸制作"] CAN["加拿大温哥华 (美剧试播集与常规剧组)"] IRE["爱尔兰都柏林 (福克斯游戏节目、情景喜剧)"] end LA -->|税收驱动| USMove LA -->|税收与廉价劳动力| Overseas ``` --- ### `12:12` 编剧室的消亡与“迷你编剧室”：喜剧工业化机制的瓦解针对主持人提出的经典疑问——“为什么电视剧必须由一个编剧室（Writer's Room）集体创作，而不能像舞台剧或电影剧本那样由单个编剧独立完成？”，达文波特深入拆解了美剧制作模式的演变与喜剧创作的严苛要求： - **单人模式的复兴与局限**：行业内确实存在“迈克·怀特模式”（Mike White Model），例如《白莲花度假村》（The White Lotus）完全由迈克·怀特一人包揽编剧；某些声望剧集（Prestige TV）也是单一作者制。制片厂极度偏爱这种模式，因为成本明显更便宜。 - **高密度笑点无法单打独斗**：然而在以密集笑点著称的喜剧领域，单人编剧几乎是不可能的任务。以达文波特参与过的《新闻塞逗秀》（Great News，出自《超级制作人 / 30 Rock》制作班底）和动画长青树《恶搞之家》（Family Guy）为例，作品对“单位时间内的笑点密度”（Joke density）有着极高要求。在达文波特任职时期，《恶搞之家》编剧室足足雇用了 30 名编剧——但在今天的行业环境下，30 人的超级编剧室已经彻底绝迹，未来也绝不可能重现。 - **“迷你编剧室”（Mini Room）的变味与罢工规则的制约**：过去在《恶搞之家》，所谓的“迷你小房间”指的是由 7 名编剧临时组成的小分队，专门关在屋子里推敲打磨“某一个具体笑点”。而如今，整个剧组能有 7 名编剧就已经被视作极其庞大的“大编剧室”了。在达文波特最近协助的一部新剧中，制片厂给两位主创的预算只够雇佣一名外援进组两周，帮忙把整季的大纲梳理完毕，随后主创就得独自闭门写完全部剧本。虽然编剧工会罢工达成了新协议，规定一旦开启编剧室就必须达到特定人数并保证最低雇佣周数，但这反而使资方更倾向于干脆不触发编剧室门槛，进一步压缩用人规模。在《恶搞之家》这样的顶级喜剧编剧室中，创作往往是极度现场化、表演化的：剧本空白处留着放笑点的位置，编剧们必须在现场轮流即兴抛梗，观察全屋人的临场反应看哪个点能引爆笑声。更绝的是，编剧如果想要推销自己的包袱，还必须能模仿剧中角色的特色嗓音和口音——“如果你不会模仿洛伊丝（Lois）的声音念台词，你的笑点就绝对过不了审进入剧本”。达文波特自嘲自己完全模仿不来洛伊丝独特的鼻音腔调；而所有角色中最难模仿的是克里斯（Chris，由塞思·格林配音），相比之下男主角彼得（Peter）的声线和性格最容易驾驭，也最好写，而布莱恩（Brian）的声音由于细节太微妙，写起来反而相当棘手。 --- ### `17:40` 算法时代的旧作困境：影视内容库的存量互搏与好莱坞对 AI 的敌意《恶搞之家》如今不仅是流行电视节目，其片段更成为了当代互联网文化的“世界语”（Lingua Franca），网络上充斥着数不清的表情包模因（Memes）。但达文波特指出，这种经典作品的长青对当下新创作的剧集构成了致命生存威胁： - **存量竞争的零和博弈**：在传统广播电视时代，一部新剧只需与同时段其他电视台正在播出的内容竞争；而在流媒体时代，任何一部新剧问世，都必须直接与跨越几十年的整个影视内容库（Entire library）贴身肉搏，争夺观众有限的注意力与屏幕时间。 - **内容库价值的分化**：虽然诸如《恶搞之家》和《办公室》（The Office）这类拥有顶级文化符号的头部大 IP 依然价值连城、能卖出天价，但影视内容库整体并不仅是在向外吸血，老旧作品之间也在残酷互踩。大量平庸、缺乏长尾模因效应的二三线老剧版权价值实际上正在迅速缩水、跌落神坛。当话题转向当下生成式 AI 在好莱坞核心创作环节的应用规范与行业风向时，达文波特直言，尽管自己不能代表洛杉矶的每一个人，但就创作者群体的普遍心态而言，洛杉矶绝对是“全美对 AI 态度最不友好、抵触情绪最强烈的城市之一”。经历过行业下行与长期罢工阵痛的好莱坞，对于算法和 AI 侵入核心创意流程，弥漫着极深的不信任与防备情绪。 ### `20:00` 生成式 AI 的渗透与好莱坞“线下工种”面临的生存危机好莱坞业内对生成式 AI 的态度正处于一种分裂状态：一方面，创作者普遍像使用搜索引擎一样把它当成信息检索工具；另一方面，在实际制作中引入 AI 仍背负着巨大的行业道德污名。海斯·达文波特（Hayes Davenport）提到，他主持的播客最近请到了一位嘉宾，对方参与的项目仅仅因为某一小处细节疑似使用了 AI 生成内容，就在圈内引发了强烈的抵触情绪。这种人人自危的根本原因，在于 AI 已经直接威胁到了整个产业的根基，尤其是洛杉矶庞大的“线下工种”（below-the-line）经济生态。所谓的线下人员，涵盖了妆发造型、置景搭建、场务电工（grips）等所有幕后制作环节，这些岗位正处于被算法和虚拟制作替代的悬崖边缘。由于洛杉矶本地经济与这些工种深度绑定，一旦发生大规模失业，其外溢效应将席卷整个城市的消费底层。在好莱坞许多人眼中，不碰 AI 已经成为一条坚决不能逾越的道德红线。面对这一危机，美国编剧工会（WGA）在新版协议中设立了针对 AI 的防线。不过达文波特坦言，现实操作远比工会条款复杂。虽然目前还没有听说哪部正经剧集完全由 AI 编写，制作公司也没有明目张胆地让 AI 接管编剧室，但在内容开发的源头，灰色地带早已出现。例如达文波特创办的《LA Material》曾报道，当下好莱坞极其热衷从匿名短篇故事中寻找影视改编 IP，其中许多源自 Reddit 论坛甚至完全未出版的网络匿名手稿。这些作为灵感源头的基底文字到底有没有使用 AI 生成，根本无法查证；行业协会也绝无可能监控编剧在自己家中到底使用了什么辅助工具。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI Impact on Hollywood Below the Line Economy accDescr: 影视制作减少及AI技术对幕后工种与洛杉矶实体经济的传导链条 subgraph AI_Threat["AI 与降本冲击"] A["剧本大纲与视觉资产生成"] --> B["制作预算缩减 / 开机日减少"] end subgraph Industry_Impact["好莱坞线下岗位 (Below-the-Line)"] B --> C["妆发造型 / 服装设计"] B --> D["现场置景 / 场务电工 (Grips)"] B --> E["摄影团队 / 现场支持"] end subgraph Economy_Ripples["洛杉矶本地实体经济"] C & D & E --> F["餐饮外卖与片场团餐订单暴跌"] C & D & E --> G["小微零售与商业地产承压"] F & G --> H["城市文化输出与旅游吸引力下降"] end ``` ### `22:30` 喜剧的衰落、恐怖片的崛起与 AI 的能力边界聊到各类型片受 AI 冲击的程度时，达文波特指出了当下好莱坞类型片市场的一个残酷现实：最具商业生命力的是恐怖片，而喜剧片正在全面溃退。恐怖片拥有极为健康的商业模型，制片厂敢于投资中等预算的院线项目，其源头可以追溯到布伦屋（Blumhouse）开创的低成本高回报模式——当年一部《灵动：鬼影实录》（Paranormal Activity）仅耗费极微薄的成本就撬动了数以亿计的票房。正因如此，好莱坞最优秀的一批创作者正在集体转向恐怖片，比如执导《野蛮人》（Barbarian）的扎克·克雷格（Zach Cregger）以及凭借《逃出绝命镇》名声大噪的乔丹·皮尔（Jordan Peele），两人最早其实都是喜剧编剧出身。相比之下，喜剧在院线几乎丧失了商业想象空间，而这种此消彼长恰好折射了 AI 的现实边界： - **喜剧是 AI 最难攻克的高地**：现有的任何大语言模型都写不出真正好笑的笑话，无法理解荒诞与反讽的微妙尺度。 - **叙事大纲是 AI 的强项**：AI 已经能游刃有余地提炼剧情脉络、拼凑类型片套路并生成扎实的剧本大纲，而恐怖片等高度依赖情节点布局的类型极易被模型解析。 - **行业距离质变仅一步之遥**：制片厂目前虽然不敢大张旗鼓地让模型撰写正片，但算法在辅助创作上的成熟已经不是遥远的未来，而是迫在眉睫的现实。当被问及是否曾出于好玩让 AI 模仿《恶搞之家》（Family Guy）中皮特·格里芬（Peter Griffin）的口吻写段子时，达文波特开玩笑说也许自己重返该剧组的契机，就是以“AI 专家”的身份回去推销算法。但他本人其实很少做这类尝试，反而是他身为商学院教授的父亲经常用 ChatGPT 捣鼓各种文案并兴奋地发给他。达文波特回忆，父亲多年来一直坚信 AI 终将具备创作能力，过去自己总对此嗤之以鼻，但现在不得不承认父亲看准了趋势。 ### `25:00` 免费内容时代的竞争与 Joe Weisenthal 的推文测试达文波特提出一个颇为辛辣的观点：影视编剧和演员很可能是最后一批被 AI 取代的职业，但这并不是因为人类艺术多么不可侵犯，而是因为虚构影视创作早已在残酷的环境中脱敏了。在长达数十年的时间里，专业编剧要与之正面搏杀的竞争对手，其实是全人类创造力在互联网上的总和——全网每天产生的无数段子、网帖和自媒体内容不仅生产和分发成本完全为零，还能通过算法精准推荐到每个人眼前。在面对这种“免费的海量内容”冲击时，影视业早已千疮百孔，因此单纯打着“低成本”旗号的 AI 很难真正吓倒他们，毕竟“AI 哪怕再便宜，也便宜不过免费”。主持人乔·威森塔尔（Joe Weisenthal）深有同感地将此与新闻业的遭遇类比。二十年来，新闻出版业不断被 Google 新闻、社交平台和算法推荐重击，早已习惯了这种颠簸。威森塔尔还分享了一个自测新模型的趣事：每逢有顶尖大模型发布，他都会输入提示词让其“模仿乔·威森塔尔的风格写十条推文”。大部分生成内容都非常拙劣，无法捕捉他本人的语气，但有一次模型写出了一句话：“十年期美债收益率不在乎你的感受，坦白说，它也不在乎我的感受。”（"The 10-year yield doesn't care about your feelings. And frankly, it doesn't care about mine either."）威森塔尔坦言，虽然自己绝不会这么发，但这句话确实写得相当出彩，甚至让他产生了一丝被算法精准逼近的微妙危机感。 ### `26:30` 拍摄日锐减的外溢效应：从市政厅视角看洛杉矶实体经济从 2021 年到 2024 年，达文波特曾在洛杉矶市政厅（City Hall）任职，亲历了行业罢工和拍摄日断崖式下跌的全过程。他通过与大量本地小微企业的接触，直观感受到了影视工业收缩对洛杉矶实体经济的毁灭性打击。好莱坞产值虽然仅占洛杉矶整体经济的 20% 左右，但它绝非孤立存在的象牙塔，而是连通无数上下游产业的经济引擎： - **餐饮业的崩塌**：好莱坞流入的巨额制作经费维系着大量本地餐厅的生计。当制片厂运转正常、摄影棚热火朝天时，现场无论是扮成罗马军团士兵还是西部牛仔的群众演员，一日三餐都要从周边餐馆订购。庞大的编剧室更是高频订购昂贵外卖的重度客户。许多在疫情期间苦苦支撑的餐饮商户，最终正是被好莱坞制作停摆这“最后一根稻草”彻底推向倒闭。 - **城市文化吸引力消退**：好莱坞影视剧同时也是洛杉矶最核心的城市广告牌。电视剧《不安感》（*Insecure*）曾让洛杉矶特定街区焕发巨大活力，引得大量拥趸专程迁居此地体验剧中的生活方式；经典独立电影《英格丽向西行》（*Ingrid Goes West*）中，由奥布里·普拉萨（Aubrey Plaza）饰演的女主角迷恋伊丽莎白·奥尔森（Elizabeth Olsen）饰演的网红，不惜奔赴威尼斯海滩（Venice）、阿博特·金尼大道（Abbot Kinney）的精品店甚至约书亚树国家公园（Joshua Tree）去沉浸式体验加州风情。影视制作规模的长期萎缩，正在削弱洛杉矶对外输出生活方式幻觉的能力，进而拖累整个城市的文旅与商业生态。 ### `30:00` 洛杉矶夜生活的消失与“DoorDash 文化” 对话从洛杉矶城市文化的变迁展开。现在的洛杉矶就像一个“时间胶囊”，沉淀着某种属于特定时代、但如今已不复存在的城市风貌。Hayes Davenport 分享了一个关于 Emily Sundberg（知名生活方式通讯 *Feed Me* 的作者）的真实小插曲：Emily 常年在纽约穿梭于各种派对和活动之间，擅长记录城中名流与鲜活现场。然而当她来到洛杉矶时，Hayes 问她晚上有什么安排，她却坦言自己只能待在酒店房间里，因为完全找不到有意思的去处。这反映出疫情后洛杉矶在夜生活与社交活动复苏上的滞后。好莱坞山庄（Hollywood Hills）里夜夜笙歌的派对文化早已大不如前，如今的洛杉矶更像是一种“DoorDash 夜生活文化”——大家习惯点外卖窝在家里，城市活力难以凝聚。Hayes 调侃希望未来能为来到洛杉矶的人们创造更多有趣的事情，而不是只能在酒店无所事事。随后，主持人半开玩笑地询问 Hayes：写喜剧是否为去洛杉矶市政厅（City Hall）工作做好了准备？毕竟地方政府往往给人一种充满荒谬与功能失调的印象。Hayes 深入对比了两种工作环境的巨大反差： - **喜剧编剧室（Writer's Room）**：整个工作日就是一场开不完的长会。大家每天雷打不动地坐在同一把椅子上（如果突然换个座位甚至会显得极其古怪），彼此熟悉到甚至习惯了彼此身上的气味。 - **市政府公共服务**：则完全是另一种生活节奏。需要整天开着车穿梭于城市的各个角落，处理形形色色、散落在各处的具体事务。这种从极度封闭到高度流动的生活方式转变，正是吸引他投身其中的原因之一，尽管两者在荒诞感上确实有异曲同工之处。 ### `32:38` 单一主流文化的终结与好莱坞农贸市场里的明星话题转向了洛杉矶标志性的旅游体验。游客来到洛杉矶通常会去好莱坞星光大道看地砖，或者像主持人与制作人那样坐上 TMZ 的观光巴士。但这引发了一个深刻的文化思考：像过去那样全美、全世界人尽皆知的大牌电影巨星（如 George Clooney）的生产机制似乎已经停摆。虽然如今社交媒体上不乏拥有数百万粉丝的网红或特定圈层顶流，但除了 Taylor Swift 等极少数人外，大众共享的“超级巨星”时代似乎随着90年代的落幕而终结了。 Hayes Davenport 赞同单一主流文化（Monoculture）已经彻底瓦解的观点。现在的洛杉矶常常出现一种荒诞的餐厅奇观：全餐厅的人突然都在窃窃私语、频频打量某个人，甚至排队合影，而你坐在旁边却根本不知道对方到底是谁，心里犯嘀咕：“这位何方神圣？我是不是也该上去合个影以防万一？” 为了探究明星的生活，Hayes 提到自己极其沉迷阅读《洛杉矶时报》（Los Angeles Times）的专题栏目《Sunday Funday》（周日乐翻天）。这个栏目专门采访名人如何度过理想的周日。令人啼笑皆非的是，几乎所有名人的日程千篇一律： 1. 上山徒步远足（Hiking） 2. 逛全城固定的三家农贸市场（Farmer's Market）之一 3. 晚上与伴侣待在家里看电视那种名流云集在 Trocadero 或 Sardi's 纸醉金迷的老好莱坞名利场已成历史。当年的巨星并没有离开，George Clooney 依然住在洛杉矶，90年代的成名演员依然在拍戏，只是城市没有诞生对应规模的新一代大众巨星。如今，人们偶遇明星最接地气的场所反而成了好莱坞农贸市场——在那里，你甚至能在摊位前偶遇 Usher。 ### `35:00` 节目收尾与信息致谢主持人向 Hayes Davenport 表达感谢，称赞这场对谈内容极其充实，甚至再聊两个小时都意犹未尽。随后节目进入常规结语环节： - 主持人 Joe Weisenthal 的社交媒体账号：@TheStalwart - 嘉宾 Hayes Davenport 的官方网站：HayesDavenport.com - 节目制作团队名单：Carmen Rodriguez（@CarmenArmond）、Dashiell Bennett（@Dashpot）、Kaili Brooks（@KaleBrooks）以及 Kevin Lozano（@KevinLloydLozano） - 订阅与社群渠道：彭博社《Odd Lots》每日简讯（Bloomberg.com/OddLots）及 Discord 官方讨论群（discord.gg/oddlots） ## Notable quotes > `00:00` 观众席里甚至就坐着一位专门打播客官司的律师，在洛杉矶大家彼此都认识 — Hayes Davenport > `00:00` 好莱坞现在是不是彻底完蛋（cooked）了？ — Tracy Alloway > `03:00` 熬到25年 — Hayes Davenport > `06:30` 如果不配合，你的切片就会被放出来，显得你很怪异，而其他人都答应了 — Joe Weisenthal > `10:00` 追着税收优惠走 — Hayes Davenport > `12:12` 如果你不会模仿洛伊丝（Lois）的声音念台词，你的笑点就绝对过不了审进入剧本 — Hayes Davenport > `17:40` 全美对 AI 态度最不友好、抵触情绪最强烈的城市之一 — Hayes Davenport > `25:00` AI 哪怕再便宜，也便宜不过免费 — Hayes Davenport > `25:00` The 10-year yield doesn't care about your feelings. And frankly, it doesn't care about mine either. — Joe Weisenthal > `32:38` 这位何方神圣？我是不是也该上去合个影以防万一？ — Hayes Davenport ## Mentioned 彭博社 (Bloomberg), Odd Lots, 佛蒙特剧院 (The Vermont Hollywood), Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Hayes Davenport, 《痞子神探》（Eastbound & Down）, 《恶搞之家》（Family Guy）, LA Material, 《Hollywood Handbook》, 美国编剧工会（WGA）, 演员工会（SAG-AFTRA）, Netflix, Amazon, 《纸牌屋》（House of Cards）, Comedy Central, Erewhon, HBO, 《副校长》（Vice Principals）, 《布朗森一家 / 正义宝石》（The Righteous Gemstones）, TBS, 福克斯（Fox）, 罗伯·劳（Rob Lowe）, 好莱坞环球影城（Universal Studios）, 迈克·怀特（Mike White）, 《白莲花度假村》（The White Lotus）, 《新闻塞逗秀》（Great News）, 塞思·格林（Seth Green）, 《办公室》（The Office）, 布伦屋（Blumhouse）, 《灵动：鬼影实录》（Paranormal Activity）, 扎克·克雷格（Zach Cregger）, 《野蛮人》（Barbarian）, 乔丹·皮尔（Jordan Peele）, 《逃出绝命镇》（Get Out）, ChatGPT, Google, 《不安感》（Insecure）, 《英格丽向西行》（Ingrid Goes West）, 奥布里·普拉萨（Aubrey Plaza）, 伊丽莎白·奥尔森（Elizabeth Olsen）, DoorDash, Emily Sundberg, 《Feed Me》, TMZ, George Clooney, Taylor Swift, 《洛杉矶时报》（Los Angeles Times）, Usher ## Video description Is Hollywood just screwed? Writers are earning less. There are fewer shoots taking place in Los Angeles. And people are freaked out about AI. But according to Hayes Davenport, things were starting to feel bad in Hollywood before chatbots showed up to the scene. Davenport — who’s written for shows like Family Guy and is now creative director of LA Material and the co-host of the fantastic Hollywood Handbook podcast — joined us on stage at the Vermont to give us a history lesson on Hollywood's steady decline from the pandemic to now. We also get into the changing norms of AI use among entertainment professionals and why Davenport is jealous of New York right now. Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-20/jon-voight-spent-months-courting-trump-on-tax-help-for-hollywood?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Jon Voight Spent Months Courting Trump on Tax Help for Hollywood</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/paramount-to-settle-lawsuits-paving-way-for-warner-bros-merger?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Paramount to Settle Lawsuits, Paving Way for Warner Bros.</a> Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a> <a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">discord.gg/oddlots</a>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information. [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/77d27e49-f26e-4c79-8913-b4cf01192cf5/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

Source quotes

[0:00] Hayes Davenport: 观众席里甚至就坐着一位专门打播客官司的律师，在洛杉矶大家彼此都认识 [0:00] Tracy Alloway: 好莱坞现在是不是彻底完蛋（cooked）了？ [3:00] Hayes Davenport: 熬到25年 [6:30] Joe Weisenthal: 如果不配合，你的切片就会被放出来，显得你很怪异，而其他人都答应了 [10:00] Hayes Davenport: 追着税收优惠走 [12:12] Hayes Davenport: 如果你不会模仿洛伊丝（Lois）的声音念台词，你的笑点就绝对过不了审进入剧本 [17:40] Hayes Davenport: 全美对 AI 态度最不友好、抵触情绪最强烈的城市之一 [25:00] Hayes Davenport: AI 哪怕再便宜，也便宜不过免费 [25:00] Joe Weisenthal: The 10-year yield doesn't care about your feelings. And frankly, it doesn't care about mine either. [32:38] Hayes Davenport: 这位何方神圣？我是不是也该上去合个影以防万一？

Source quotes

[0:00] Hayes Davenport: just a total coincidence [2:50] survive till '25 [17:10] Hayes Davenport: The entire library is competition, not just what's on the other network at the same time [22:30] Hayes Davenport: none of them are funny yet [24:10] Hayes Davenport: the sum of all human creativity produced and distributed for free, algorithmically sorted exactly to your specifications [24:10] Joe Weisenthal: You talk about AI being cheaper — it is not as cheap as free. [24:10] Joe Weisenthal: The 10-year yield doesn't care about your feelings. And frankly, it doesn't care about mine either. [24:10] Joe Weisenthal: they're in the area [30:00] Hayes Davenport: the meeting is the entire day [30:00] Hayes Davenport: everyone gets used to each other's smell, in, like, a good way [30:00] Hayes Davenport: Should I do that too, like just in case?

Original transcript

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So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful Something useful. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans. Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it. Optum is helping make health care work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. And we're here live at the Vermont Theater in Hollywood. It's our first ever live show in Los Angeles, and we have an incredible lineup. So first up, we're going to be speaking with Hayes Davenport. He was a writer for shows like Eastbound and Down and Family Guy. He is now the creative director of L.A. Material and co-host of the podcast Hollywood Handbook. And we're going to talk about the business of writing for Hollywood. And we're going to talk about the state of Hollywood and whether Hollywood exists in some form that we know it to exist. So take a watch, take a listen and enjoy. Hayes, thank you so much for being here. Hi, guys. Thank you so much for having me. Welcome to L.A. Thank you. I feel kind of intimidated to be talking to a fellow podcast professional. I feel like there's more pressure. You're in a city of podcast professionals. You're in the right place. There's a podcast lawyer in the audience. I know who you're talking to. We all know each other. Tracy was telling me before the show... Her favorite ever season of TV was Family Guy season 13. Family Guy season 13. It is the best one. It's the one that I worked on. I don't know if that's related. That's just a total coincidence. Yes. Total coincidence. Wait, okay, so... First question. Is Hollywood just screwed at the moment? No, like, honestly, you hear about, you know, the stats about... Writers not earning as much income fewer shoots and production actually taking place in LA the threat of AI is everyone cooked. I I, if you want to do the numbers, I can talk about like shoot days. The numbers that we look at are, are, are shoot days. Like that's the message. And that's for reality commercials. That's for everything. Right. Shoot days in L.A., Hit a high in 2016. Okay. About 40,000 shoot days. And from there, it sort of leveled out to around $37,000 by 2019. Okay. Right. Pandemic hits, the shoot days collapse, obviously. There's a backlog. And then in 2021, they sort of skyrocket again. 2022, we're back to 2019 numbers, around 37,000. The next year, 2023, the strikes hit. Shoot days fall again to 25%. Thousand. The next year, people are sort of hoping for a recovery. They end up at 23,000. Should this fall again? Yeah. The mantra I think a lot of people heard in this city was survive till 25. That was like a phrase in the entertainment industry here. And instead, shoot days fell again to under 20. Thousand. So that is half. of what it was in 2016. So. Maybe. Maybe. Yeah. We actually, we'll talk about the impact of COVID and the strike, and I guess we're unfortunately going to have to talk about AI. Yeah. Is there a theory for the 2016 to 2019 decline? Yeah. [5:00] Let's if we started there, is there a conventional wisdom about what happened in those three years? I think you saw an increase, obviously, in the streaming economy. There were more shows on Netflix and Amazon, entire new networks being built. I remember when House of Cards started when I was first a writer and we called it a web series. We didn't really know what it was. And at the same time, a decline in the number of network productions and cable. Cable was shrinking around the same time. So that's how you get to like, like a leveling out between 40,000 and 37,000. My first couple jobs were Comedy Central shows. Comedy Central... does not really do new shows anymore. And so that like you, you, you can see just from the options that are sent you as a writer, what is growing in terms of streaming and what is sort of falling away, which was cable. So what happens to all the unemployed writers? Do they, I guess they all start podcasts? Yeah, that's that has been sort of a safe harbor for a lot of us. Uh, some people move, uh, like an interesting thing happened is the, uh, the membership in the writers guild grew a lot in the late 2010s because of people moving out because everyone who had worked on a cable show was still a member of the writers guild and many more new shows were starting that were bringing new people into the business. Uh, and I think it is a lot of the newcomers that then as production has, uh, been cut in half since then that are not seeing the same opportunities. So, I mean, I know people who have moved home for sure and have taken on, you know, I work with a news outlet now. We did a piece about people that have taken on different survival jobs around the city. So it varies. But yeah, people are struggling for sure. I joked about it, you know. the, and we're going to talk more about it later, but you know, there's this sort of the influencer creator world. - Yeah. - And I'm curious, like maybe from an economic footprint, does that ameliorate things? Is the influencer creator? person doing stand-up comedy in vertical video, etc. Does that have positive spillover effect on some level? I mean, so there's the industry here, and there's the economy. Okay. And the industry is... the studios, the networks, like the traditional Hollywood. But the influencer network is absolutely part of the economy. Okay. It is... taking money from subscribers around the world and like putting it into the local economy. And so it's really, really important. And I look at things like I get jealous of places like New York because what New York feels to me now is a social media user. It's a place where you just walk down the street and people ask you what you're listening to or where you get your confidence from or what song is this? Yeah, we don't have that here. I've never been. I'm actually really paranoid about like some of what like being accosted by one of those people who is like, what do you pay in rent? with you can i come like see where you live it seems like you have to say yes a lot of that you don't have to say yes but a lot of people i like live in fear of just like one of those random like what if they showed my clip of me saying no yeah no i know what do you look so bad everyone else said yes yeah like it's like i'm I'm opting out. Yeah. The no comment. We don't have that. I kind of wish we did. Honestly, it seems so stupid. But it tells a story about New York that is exporting it to the rest of the country. Interesting. Which is what we have had in LA. We had that corner for decades. Every... Movie and show. You'd see the Venice boardwalk. Some like a girl on rollerblades. Yeah. Like we were we were exporting. Right. Yeah. And we're not doing that in the same way when it comes to social media. We are on some things. People know about Erewhon smoothies. in Central Europe because of our influencer economy. Yeah. But we don't own it the same way as we did. We tried to get the Erwan CEO for this show, by the way, and apparently they do zero media, which and yet have this incredible... Oh, there's so many people doing media for them. Oh, yeah, there we go. It's part of it, yeah. All right, since we're talking about, I guess, geographical comparisons, when it comes to production, can you explain, like... Why is L.A. actually losing out? Because I see headlines like Netflix is building a one billion dollar studio in New Jersey. And no offense to. to New Jerseyans. But, you know, we come to LA and, seems pretty nice. The weather's nice. There's palm trees. I'm not sure what New Jersey [10:00] he has other than the tax breaks. Yeah, that's a big one. For sure. We... It's been a bit of a race to the bottom across the country. And I have worked on shows. So you mentioned Eastbound and Down. We were in North Carolina until they got rid of their tax break there. The governor sort of single-handedly ended it. And then we just ran across the border to South Carolina for the last – For their next show that they did, it was a show called Vice Principals, the Eastbound team. We shot that in South Carolina. And they've kept doing Righteous Gemstones there. It followed the tax break. Great show. Um, I ran a show, we did a pilot for TBS, it was in Vancouver. A lot of my friends are shooting in Vancouver now. It does, and... What is kind of most surprising to me, Game shows, like if you see a Fox game show or a Fox studio comedy, like a single cam or a multi-cam comedy, you're in Dublin. you are watching a show that is filmed in Dublin. Did you say Dublin? Dublin, Ireland. Dublin, Ireland. Interesting. So they're flying out Rob Lowe and an American game show contestant cast. that you used to go to Universal Studios and get to sleep. Wait, is that a tax thing? Or is it just much cheaper to operate? It's a tax and labor thing. Yeah. Wow. And and meanwhile, we have tons of studio space here. So you talked about that 2016 peak in shoot days. Yeah. That's when a lot of studio space started to get financed. And so right down the street from here, there's a giant complex right on the Santa Monica and the 101. that you saw starting to get built around like 2019 or so. That's when it got financed. There was a gigantic hole in the ground for a really long time. and now it is done. And the demand is not exactly what it was. And so we're seeing issues in the. studio real estate. Can I ask a question that has nothing to do with the contemporary economy or nothing to do with the downturn or anything, but just a question I've always wanted to ask. Yes. What is it about TV that is... best written by a room of writers? I've always wanted to ask this question. Why isn't it not just someone who's like a play or a screenplay or whatever, where you have a single writer? Why doesn't that work in TV? to what people talk about is like the Mike White model. Mike White goes and does the White Lotus by himself. Oh, he writes that show. Um, I'm pretty sure I like DTF St. Louis, I think is like done the same way. A lot of prestige shows are kind of written by one, uh, one, one person. Um, The studio's like that. Got it. It is cheaper. Yeah, but. But historically, it wasn't like that. Oh, yeah, totally. And when it comes to like, I worked on a show called Great News, which is kind of in the 30 Rock family. Yeah. Where the joke density, Family Guy is the same way. Family Guy had 30 writers when I was there. That does not exist anymore and never, ever will again. Wait, so this is the mini room phenomenon, right? People call these mini rooms where you have smaller teams of writers. And everyone seems to hate them, even though, you know, we live in New York. Mini rooms don't sound terrible. We're used to them. But I guess in Hollywood. What a mini room used to mean to me on Family Guy, was a room of seven writers that would break off to go write one joke. Huh. Wow. And now that is a big room. Seven writers is like a big room for a show. The last show I helped out with was the two creators of the show had a budget to have one person come in and just outline the season for a couple of weeks. And then they went and wrote it themselves. So like the rooms are getting smaller and smaller. Part of it is a result of the strikes where. If you have a room now, it has to be of a certain size and for a certain number of weeks. Oh. So... If they trigger a writer's room, then it is required to be a certain size, and that has changed the calculus a little bit. But I'll say, with the Shirley Great News, with the Shirley Family Guy. It is almost impossible to come up with a show like to write a show like that as one person. Yeah. And you're you have a spot in the script for a joke and people are just like pitching in a in a room setting and you see what gets a laugh. Wow. I'm family guy. You would have to be able to do the accents. of the different, you have to be able to do the voices. - So that the people in the room could understand how the joke would land. - If you can't do Lois, your joke will not get in. - Can you do Lois? - No. It's a bizarre, it makes no sense. - Wait, which character did you write the most jokes for, looking back? [15:00] The hardest voice to do is Chris. Seth Green is like, it's amazing what he can do. I would say probably Peter. Brian is hard. Brian is subtle. But Peter, you know, Peter's very easy and fun to write for. Did you ever notice how you spend hours shopping online only to pause right before you hit buy now? 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Some are fatal Tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms like fevers sweats chills muscle aches or cough had a vaccine or planned to or if inflammatory bowel disease symptoms develop or worsen Serious allergic reactions and severe eczema-like skin reactions may occur. Learn more at 1-844-COSENTICS or cosentics.com slash Cindy. My name is Jessa. One of the things I love the most about working for UnitedHealthcare is that everybody matters. Every moment matters. There's a person behind every problem. I care because it's what I was put on this earth to do. I'm Ben, and I work at UnitedHealthcare. I am just one piece of a larger puzzle, but every piece matters. It's more than just work. We want to make the healthcare system better for everyone. I care because I want to make a difference. That's what committed to care means to me. You know, it's interesting, like, Family Guy memes are like the lingua franca of the internet. Like, there's, like, more than any, like, way more than many other shows, there's so many, something about that show is just, like, designed for, like, memetics and templates and you, like, put up some other caption. But that a threat to the new TV shows as well The fact that we are still competing against Family Guy every time we do a new show that did not used to be the case The entire library is competition, not just what's on the other network at the same time. This is something that I wanted to ask you, but in the age of AI, and now that there's so much existing content out there, do you get the sense that libraries libraries are becoming more or less valuable because you could kind of see it going either way. Right. Yeah. I mean, individual shows are definitely still really valuable. Family Guy, The Office, like those will still command like a like a big price. But, yeah, I think in the same way that new shows are competing, it's the old ones. the old ones are competing against each other. And some big chunks of the library, I think, are also becoming less and less valuable as well. As of 2026, what are the norms about essentially the use of AI within creation? You know, I don't speak for the whole city. I think this is one of the least AI friendly cities in the country. [20:00] I would guess, when it comes to generative AI. I think it's pretty widely used, like everyone else, as a search engine. Yeah, sure. The way everyone uses it. There is still a lot of stigma. On my podcast, we had a guest on recently who had been involved in a project that had one piece of it that had apparently been done with some AI. And there was like a pushback about that just because it right now it is such a threat. Yeah. To jobs, to like the below the line economy in the city, we call it like is. But what is what does that mean, the below the line? There is like anyone who works on the production side. Oh, I see. And so hair and makeup, people like set design, grips, things like that. Like that is sort of on an immediate precipice when it comes to AI. And just when it comes to the local economy of L.A., that is a really huge issue. That level of job loss is a huge issue It does like I worked in City Hall for a while It has huge ripple effects on the rest of the economy I think people here have a sense of that And it has it has made it a line that a lot of people say you just do not cross when it comes to productions So I read that the new WGA contract, the Writers Union contract, has some AI protection guardrails in it. How effective would you expect those to be? And I guess how long until the studios just find workarounds for those? I have not heard of a show that has been written by AI yet. So at LA Material, we did a story about how short stories are very popular IP now and not like Harper's type short stories, like things that are posted on Reddit or in some cases like totally unpublished short stories by anonymous writers. were those written by ai it's really hard to tell uh but when it comes to the work that writers are doing obviously you can't police what people do in their own homes yeah uh but it it has not come for writers rooms in the same studios aren't saying like we got this we're just gonna have ai take care of this uh so far do they want to like do you feel it like in this like either the studios hoping that maybe there some model there None of them are funny yet but are they like you know hoping that there could be a model that can produce jokes Or do you see the presence of like startups coming to pitch studios and say, like, this thing they can play? Like, are there people banging at the gate trying to, like, break through? and I guess like, you know, break that eventually hoping that the dam will break on this. You know, the genre that is the most alive in Hollywood right now is horror. Yeah. And great horror movies. They're great. And so many people, you know, like Zack Kreger used to be on team comedy. We we we lost him to team. And like Jordan Peele also was a comedy guy. Like this is where a lot of great filmmakers are. Why? What is it about horror that is having this moment? You can make a mid budget movie that like is commercially viable that a studio will put out because they know we'll make more money. Started with studios like Blumhouse that made Paranormal Activity for whatever, twenty dollars and it makes millions. Comedy does not have the same upside potential doesn have the same perceived theater going potential right now So that like to answer your question like comedy is hardest for AI to do Yeah. But it can do other genres more easily. It can do outlines right now. Yeah. And so I think whether or not studios want to do it, they haven't felt like they can now. but it's right there. It's not in the distant future that it'll be able to do that stuff. And comedy is hardest for it to do, but comedy is in decline in terms of the productions that are getting done, for sure. Have you experimented at all with AI comedy writing? You know, just for fun, would you ask it to produce a Peter-voiced family guy kind of joke? That's how I'll make my way back to family guy, I think. I'll pitch as the AI guy. No, I haven't really done that. My dad does send me a lot of AI generated content. But does he like send it to you? Oh, yeah. He's like, check out what I just did on ChatGPT. Yeah. I mean, like, he's been interested in AI for a long time and has been saying, he's a business professor, [25:00] I've been saying for years that this is something that they're going to, that AI is going to be able to do. I've always dismissed it, and he was right. But it's, I do kind of, this may be naive, I think writing and acting will be among the last categories that AI, but this is the thing. in fiction in tv and film we have already been competing for years against the sum of all human creativity yes produced and distributed for free yes algorithmically sorted exactly to your specifications you can't really scare us no this is what i always say about journalism too because people like oh do you think um ai is gonna like be bad for newspapers or whatever and i was like you're talking about an industry that's been buffeted in every direction over the last 20 years yes so like possible but like man if there's one industry that is just taking it on the chin over and over and over again by google news by everything else it's like at this point it's like there isn a whole lot no and you like you talk about ai being cheaper it is not as cheap as free Yeah And like the free content that we all produce for everyone else's consumption all day long. And, you know, we still only have so many consumption hours in our lives. You know, by the way, every time a new model comes out, one of my tests is I'll have it say like, write 10 tweets in the style of Joe Weisenthal. and it's never very good. Yeah. But you are one of the harder ones, I think, to pin down. But there was one tweet and it said, the 10-year yield doesn't care about your feelings. And frankly, it doesn't care about mine either. And I was like, I wouldn't tweet that, but it's kind of a good tweet. I was like, I kind of like that tweet. Wow. Yeah. Does it ever say that it doesn't troll? It hasn't said that, so it doesn't normally. Was that scary? They got, they got. I was like, I was like, oh. They're in the area. Yeah, I was like, oh, that's like, oh, that's kind of the truth, but it wasn't my voice. So I was like, it wasn't there yet. Yeah. So you've done a lot with like housing and real estate. Yeah. Have there been a ripple effect from this decline of shoot days in terms of like how you see it manifest in quote the rest of the real economy here I yes I was in City Hall from 2021 to 2024 So during a lot of that decline during the strike so I was in City Hall. And I got to see, you know, like working with a lot of small businesses, we say here a lot that Hollywood is not LA and it's not the LA economy. It's like 20% of the economy or something but it's it is all it's not a silo it is very very closely connected there's a ton of money flowing into the hollywood business that was keeping a lot of restaurants afloat i watched restaurants that had been taken right to the edge by the shutdown yeah get shoved over by the decline in production things that seem as like small as writer's room you know we get lunch in right they order lunch for us yeah so much lunch sometimes dinner and and that is like when you have a bustling yeah studio a bustling lot with like you know the stereotype people dressed like legionnaires like walking through the studio and stuff like that You know what you used to see in old movies like cowboys walking by They are all eating food from local restaurants and or even from the like from on the lot Like it has enormous ripple effects and on tourism as well. Just like the, what we're presenting to the rest of the country changes with the slowdown in, in, in production. Shows like Insecure, like had huge impacts on like parts of the city that that show like really brought to life and people move to like to live that experience. There's a movie I love called Ingrid Goes West. Did you ever see that movie? Yeah, it's awesome. It's a great movie. Yeah, let's hear it. Yeah. But it's about a woman with some mental health issues who falls in love with a version of it with an influencer in a version of LA. It's Aubrey Plaza. Aubrey Plaza. Yes. And Mary, Mary Elizabeth Olsen is the, is the influencer that she discovers on Instagram and goes out to Venice and having kitty and buys a big hat and like goes to all the different boutiques and like immerses herself in this, go to Joshua tree and like that whole lifestyle. That, [30:00] The is like a time capsule. Now, it is an artifact of like a certain time in L.A. that does not exist the same way as it did. I we all know Emily Sundberg. Yeah. From. Yes. Yes. Yes. In a previous show. Yeah. I got to meet her earlier this year and I hope she won't mind me sharing this story. but you know she goes out she writes this newsletter called feed me that's about life in new york and yeah feed me is great uh and like she goes out yeah like she goes to events and like talks about who's there and what she sees and she was in la and i was like well what are you doing tonight and she said that she was just gonna stay in her hotel because she didn't know of anything that was like going on and that is unfortunately a thing that has happened to an extent in LA, the recovery is still happening when it comes to nightlife and events. Yeah. Hollywood parties in the hills are not the, it's not the same culture as it used to be. There a real door dash nightlife culture in the city And you know I hoping that we can provide things for Emily Sundberg to do when she comes here Is writing comedy good prep for working in City Hall? And I'm being kind of facetious with that question. But also when you think about local government, often the image that comes to mind is one of perhaps not comedic dysfunction, but certainly. dysfunction of some sort. It's, I would say, like, what's weird about, you talk about writing comedy, like, the writer's room environment, like, just the experience of writing comedy, the meeting is the entire day. Yeah. You sit in one, you sit in the same chair every day, it'd be weird if you went and sat in a different chair. You, everyone gets used to each other's smell, in, like, a good way, I guess. uh and like working in the city was much more driving around like different things in different places in a way that's part of why i went to go do it i yeah i was it's like a total lifestyle change it can be very absurd in the in the same way when you said tourism this reminded me of something so classic tourist thing to do in L is to see the walk the stars right That are literally the sidewalk. Yeah. Last time we were here, I didn't go on it, but Tracy took a bus, one of those bus trips where you see. But we took our producer on a TMZ. Yeah. Yeah. I was like, don't judge. But what I'm curious about is like, like the production of movie stars that we all know, like sort of came to an end, right? So it's like there are still stars and there are people with millions of followers, but it's like, it doesn't seem like a new George Clooney has emerged, et cetera. Like, is that weird that like, like genuinely mainstream cultural production came to some weird end in the nineties and now like there are very few people, you know, Taylor Swift, there are a handful of people that everybody still knows, but it's just, there aren't that many anymore of those truly stars we all know. The monoculture has definitely gone away. We still have a... There's a phenomenon here where you can be sitting in a restaurant and everyone in the restaurant... It'll feel like everyone else is paying attention to someone and you don know You like what is the deal with that person Who is that People are going up like getting pictures with them You like should I do that too like just in case But yeah I mean we there an L Times feature called Sunday Funday Has anyone read Sunday Funday? Woo. I read it so obsessively because it's celebrities talking about what they do in their ideal Sunday. and I just want to know where they are. I'm just curious what they're doing. And they are all doing, I'm generalizing, but they all do kind of the same things. They hike, they go to one of three farmer's markets and they watch something at home with their spouse at night. And so like when it comes to like the LA of like celebrities out at the Trocadero or Sardi's or whatever it was, like that is not the same as it used to be. I mean, George Clooney lives. We have a George Clooney. Yeah, he's still here. He's still making movies. And everyone who was a movie star in the 90s is still allowed. Everyone is still here. We've just kind of added new people. Everyone got to stay. But we don't see them the same way as we used to, except in the farmer's market. Hollywood farmer's market is like you see ushers. [35:00] It's amazing. All right, Hayes Davenport, thank you so much for coming on. We couldn't talk for two more hours, but that was great. at the stalwart. Follow our guest Hayes Davenport at Hayes Davenport.com. And follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmond, Dash O'Bennett at Dashpot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, And Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more Odd Lots content, you should check out our daily newsletter. You can find that at Bloomberg.com forward slash Odd Lots. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash Odd Lots. And if you enjoyed this conversation, then please like the video or leave a comment or better yet, subscribe. Thanks for watching and listening. Thank you. Are you struggling with symptoms of chronic hives with no known external triggers? Living with chronic spontaneous urticaria, or CSU, can be frustrating, especially when symptoms last months or even years. CSU is a long-term condition that often requires ongoing treatment. Rapsido, remabrutinib, is an oral prescription treatment that's taken twice daily with or without food for adults with CSU who continue to have symptoms not controlled with antihistamines. 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