LA Developers Pivot to Design as Rate Hikes Kill Financial Arbitrage

Bloomberg

Elevated borrowing costs have dismantled spreadsheet-driven real estate returns, leaving curated design and placemaking as the only viable route to profitability amid severe municipal and supply bottlenecks.

AI-assisted summary of Why Building a Crosswalk in LA Is Kafkaesque — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-09-28

Key ideas

Installing a single pedestrian crosswalk at Clinton Street and Western Avenue in Los Angeles was quoted at roughly $1 million with an open-ended multi-year timeline, highlighting the regulatory friction facing urban infill projects. (17:50)
Rising borrowing costs have ended the era of spreadsheet-driven financial engineering in commercial real estate, forcing developers to compete on design quality and curated placemaking to sustain rent growth. (15:24)
Roughly 95% of Los Angeles is zoned exclusively for residential use, depriving neighborhoods of the mixed-use side streets that protect independent retail when primary corridors turn corporate. (10:00)
Supply chain bottlenecks for high-voltage transformers and electrical components have become so acute that developers are forced to source them via informal channels and stockpile hardware in garages. (22:36)

Detailed notes

## Background Published on September 28, 2026, by Bloomberg on the Odd Lots podcast platform, this episode features hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway recording live from the Vermont Hollywood. The episode description highlights a wide-ranging panel discussion with Calculated Risk creator Bill McBride and real estate developer Zach Lasry on the mechanics of Los Angeles real estate, covering the Kafkaesque ordeal of installing a crosswalk, component sourcing bottlenecks, and how autonomous driving might reshape city parking.

## TL;DR Recorded live in Hollywood, the discussion explores why Los Angeles real estate operates under fundamentally different rules than denser metropolitan markets like New York. Developer Zach Lasry explains how his firm curates creative commercial hubs in Melrose Hill like an independent film studio, arguing that higher interest rates have ended the era of spreadsheet arbitrage and forced builders to focus on architectural product quality. Calculated Risk author Bill McBride details California's regulatory logjams, from zoning resistance and anti-downzoning mandates to the unintended street-parking consequences of accessory dwelling units (ADUs). The conversation also delves into extreme bureaucratic hurdles—epitomized by a $1 million, multi-year quote for a single crosswalk—and the logistical scramble to hoard electrical transformers, before concluding with long-term optimism tempered by housing affordability and water constraints.

## Atmosphere & style The live recording radiates an engaging, banter-heavy energy, pairing the hosts' trademark macroeconomic curiosity with the immediate, conversational vibe of an in-person theater audience. The dialogue strikes an entertaining balance between McBride's measured, seasoned macroeconomic realism and Lasry's passionate, artist-turned-developer candidness. Laughter punctuate accounts of municipal red tape, transforming dry development hurdles into darkly humorous, Kafkaesque anecdotes about modern urban friction.

## Bulletin - `17:50` Installing a single pedestrian crosswalk at Clinton Street and Western Avenue in Los Angeles was quoted at roughly $1 million with an open-ended multi-year timeline, highlighting the regulatory friction facing urban infill projects. - `15:24` Rising borrowing costs have ended the era of spreadsheet-driven financial engineering in commercial real estate, forcing developers to compete on design quality and curated placemaking to sustain rent growth. - `10:00` Roughly 95% of Los Angeles is zoned exclusively for residential use, depriving neighborhoods of the mixed-use side streets that protect independent retail when primary corridors turn corporate. - `22:36` Supply chain bottlenecks for high-voltage transformers and electrical components have become so acute that developers are forced to source them via informal channels and stockpile hardware in garages.

## Key takeaways - `03:02` Commercial real estate historically triggers community skepticism because projects favor generic, formulaic construction over artistic sensibility and placemaking. - `04:25` Los Angeles supports a unique density of quirky, independent brick-and-mortar storefronts because lower spatial density and accessible rents provide creative operators with financial runway. - `06:05` Curating experimental, independent tenants carries asymmetric upside because real estate fundamentally retains underlying land and structural value even if a specific operator fails. - `07:29` While California's ADU legalization helped at the margin, restrictive zoning codes and local resistance remain the primary barrier to delivering meaningful housing density. - `07:29` State-level emergency housing statutes have prohibited down-zoning and halted coastal mega-mansion parcel assemblages to prevent the net loss of housing stock. - `10:00` Developing contiguous clusters of parcels allows developers to curate an entire neighborhood ecosystem modeled after Jane Jacobs's concept of the street-level 'sidewalk ballet.' - `10:00` Because roughly 95% of Los Angeles is zoned strictly residential, neighborhoods have no secondary commercial release valves when primary commercial corridors homogenize. - `15:24` The end of low-rate financial engineering means real estate developers can no longer rely on cap-rate arbitrage and must instead invest in architectural and tenant differentiation. - `17:50` A standard pedestrian crosswalk installation at Clinton and Western exposed an extractive permitting process costing approximately $1 million and spanning years. - `17:50` Regulatory permitting bottlenecks and zoning constraints remain the universal top complaint voiced by both infill developers and master-planned builders across the US. - `20:00` State rules eliminating off-street parking mandates for ADU construction have intensified curbside parking battles in dense Los Angeles neighborhoods like Koreatown. - `20:00` Widespread autonomous vehicles could eliminate parking footprints, reclaim garage spaces for housing, and drastically alter municipal revenue derived from traffic violations. - `22:36` Severe supply chain delays for grid transformers and electrical switchgear require developers to procure and stockpile critical infrastructure far in advance. - `22:36` Despite strong long-term geographic and cultural fundamentals, Southern California's upside is capped by acute housing affordability issues and long-term water scarcity.

## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` Live from Hollywood: A Tale of Two Real Estate Perspectives

Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway open a live recording of the *Odd Lots* podcast at the Vermont Hollywood in Los Angeles. The setting is ideal for examining real estate, an industry woven into the city's economic identity. While Hollywood is known globally for entertainment, housing and commercial property are undergoing seismic shifts driven by economic pressures and regulatory fights.

To unpack both sides of the market, the hosts bring out two very different experts: Bill McBride, author of the *Calculated Risk* newsletter—a figure who famously called the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse as well as the post-crisis market bottom—and Zach Lasry, a commercial developer and founder of Western Company who is actively developing Melrose Hill into one of Los Angeles's most talked-about new neighborhoods.

`03:02` Infusing Commercial Real Estate with the Artistic Spirit

Asked what it actually means to be a real estate professional, Zach Lasry explains that his background is in theater and acting, having moved to Los Angeles around 2014. He noticed a persistent, discouraging pattern: whenever an exciting, culturally rich pocket emerged in neighborhoods like Silver Lake, Echo Park, or Highland Park, the appearance of construction scaffolding inevitably triggered dread among locals—an audible "Oh no, what's that going to be?" rather than genuine curiosity.

Lasry argues that new buildings should spark enthusiasm about the creative life entering a structure, yet the commercial real estate sector has historically produced dull, uninspired outcomes. Western Company's mission is to counter that cynicism by bringing an artistic sensibility into the development process.

`04:25` The Survival of Mom-and-Pop Shops: Rent vs. Density

Tracy Alloway raises a paradox of Los Angeles retail: compared to New York City, LA retains an astonishing diversity of quirky, independent brick-and-mortar storefronts—even hyper-specific businesses like a standalone linoleum emporium. Lasry traces this resilience back to human capital and rents. Many of his talented friends from his NYU days left New York because living costs became unbearable. While buying a home in Los Angeles is exceptionally pricey, it remains easier to find an affordable rental in an interesting neighborhood, giving artists, chefs, and creatives the financial runway to dedicate themselves to their craft and experiment with unproven concepts.

Bill McBride frames the dynamic through urban geography and density. New York's sky-high spatial density concentrates foot traffic, which in turn commands extortionate commercial rents. By contrast, LA is famously sprawling. Living off the Pacific Coast Highway (PCH), McBride observes that most neighborhood retail is still independent mom-and-pop storefronts rather than corporate chains, precisely because low density spreads out commercial demand. Joe Weisenthal chimes in with his fondness for the classic Southern California strip mall—where a Korean restaurant, a teeth-whitening clinic, a vape shop, and a karate studio happily co-exist side-by-side as quintessential organic mixed-use development.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Retail Dynamics NYC vs LA accDescr: Comparison of how urban density and rents affect independent retail viability in New York versus Los Angeles.

subgraph NYC["New York City"] A["Extreme Urban Density"] --> B["High Foot Traffic & Commercial Rents"] B --> C["Corporate Chains & Massive Budgets"] B --> D["Creatives Priced Out to Other Cities"] end

subgraph LA["Los Angeles"] E["Car-Centric Sprawl & Lower Density"] --> F["Relatively Accessible Commercial / Residential Rents"] F --> G["Hub for Mom-and-Pop Retail & Strip Malls"] F --> H["Space for Artisans, Experiments & A24-Style Tenants"] end ```

`06:05` Curating Tenants Like A24 and the Safety Net of Land

When asked how a developer avoids erecting another generic building, Lasry draws an analogy to independent cinema: Western Company scouts retail tenants the way film studio A24 scouts visionary directors. Rather than seeking out a predictable, scalable corporate tenant like Shake Shack—which Lasry appreciates in an airport terminal, but feels makes street-level urban life monotonous—he searches for passionate operators pushing creative boundaries, whether in high-end pastries or specialized goods.

Alloway counters by asking whether prioritizing taste over mass appeal sacrifices profitability, noting that many brilliant artistic projects fail at the box office while formulaic Marvel movies generate billions. Lasry points out an asymmetric advantage intrinsic to commercial property:

* Unlike a feature film, where a flop forces investors to write off the entire budget, real estate fundamentally retains underlying land and structural value. * If a hyper-curated, experimental tenant does fail, the physical storefront remains in place, allowing the developer to re-lease the space to someone new.

`07:29` California's Housing Crisis and the Zoning Logjam

The discussion turns to policy barriers, with Joe Weisenthal asking McBride how critical zoning deregulation is to unlocking affordability and vibrant communities. McBride emphasizes that homebuilders and multifamily developers view zoning reform as the single largest impediment in the industry.

While California has made strides by legalizing accessory dwelling units (ADUs), McBride points out that ADUs deliver only marginal bumps to the total housing inventory rather than the mass density required. Modifying core zoning codes remains fiercely resisted, though recent statewide initiatives have begun targeting transit corridors for higher-density projects.

McBride highlights a critical statutory defense mechanism introduced under California's ongoing, officially declared housing crisis, first enacted roughly four to five years ago:

* **Banning Down-Zoning:** Developers and property owners are barred from demolishing density. For instance, a buyer cannot replace a six-unit apartment complex with four luxury condominiums. * **Halt on Mega-Mansion Assemblages:** In affluent beach communities, wealthy buyers had been purchasing two or three adjacent parcels to tear down multiple homes and assemble massive private compounds, causing the local housing stock to shrink. The state stepped in to halt this practice, stopping the net loss of units in high-demand coastal enclaves.

`10:00` Jane Jacobs, Main Streets, and the Walkability Debate

The panel zeroes in on Zach Lasry’s development strategy in Melrose Hill, specifically focusing on Western Avenue and Melrose Avenue. Rather than following the conventional developer playbook of cherry-picking isolated parcels across Los Angeles, Lasry is acquiring contiguous clusters of buildings to curate an entire ecosystem. A co-panelist highlights that this method transforms an area into a cohesive community akin to a "symphony," integrating dining, retail, and public life rather than erecting standalone structures. Lasry explains that this philosophy was directly inspired by reading Jane Jacobs’s seminal work, *The Death and Life of Great American Cities*, particularly her concept of the "sidewalk ballet" in Greenwich Village. Having grown up in New York City, Lasry experienced that dynamic street-level vibrancy firsthand, where residents absorb culture simply by stepping outside and existing in public space—an element he felt was conspicuously absent in Los Angeles.

The structural impediment in Los Angeles comes down to strict zoning rules. In New York, pervasive mixed-use zoning historically allowed side streets to foster independent businesses, even when rising rents and national retail chains overtook primary commercial corridors. Los Angeles, by contrast, has roughly 95% of its land zoned exclusively for residential use. As a result, when the few existing commercial "main streets" lose their independent character and morph into generic, airport-style shopping corridors, the surrounding neighborhood has no secondary commercial release valve. The panel then debates the nature of walkability in Southern California. While online discourse routinely ranks Los Angeles near the bottom of walkable cities compared to dense transit hubs like New York, the hosts jokingly point out that LA's flawless weather actually makes it enjoyable to walk for hours on end—even if covering meaningful distances means accepting that "you'll be walking for a long time."

- **Key Architectural Inspiration**: Jane Jacobs's concept of the Greenwich Village "sidewalk ballet" from *The Death and Life of Great American Cities*. - **The 95% Constraint**: Approximately 95% of Los Angeles is residentially zoned, leaving little room for side-street retail when a primary commercial strip turns into an "airport shopping mall."

---

`15:24` The End of Financial Engineering and the Pivot to Product Quality

Turning to the broader macroeconomic environment and the commercial real estate cycle, the conversation shifts to how higher interest rates have fundamentally altered developer business models. Lasry argues that the commercial real estate sector is enduring a painful correction because it spent decades relying on financial engineering rather than building high-quality physical products. Previously, developers could reliably generate profits by capturing the arbitrage between low interest rates and high capitalization rates, cramming "a bunch of people in a room of 140 IQ" to optimize financial models on spreadsheets. With borrowing costs now eclipsing purchase cap rates, that mathematical shortcut is broken.

To survive and generate rent growth in the current climate, developers are forced to pivot toward design quality and tenant experience. Lasry laments that the vast majority of recent multi-family construction across Los Angeles consists of uninspired, cookie-cutter boxes that elicit groans of "oh God, not another one of those boring, generic apartment buildings" rather than civic pride. In Melrose Hill, by contrast, investing heavily in design talent, architecture, and curated tenancy has allowed them to command higher rents despite the prevailing market downturn, demonstrating that creating a compelling physical product is becoming the only viable path to profitability.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Real Estate Strategy Shift Under Changing Interest Rates accDescr: Diagram contrasting the era of financial engineering with the emerging product-driven model in commercial real estate.

subgraph LowRateEra ["The Low-Rate Era"] A["Low Interest Rates"] --> B["Spreadsheet Arbitrage"] B --> C["Cap Rate vs. Debt Spread"] C --> D["Generic Asset Construction"] end

subgraph HighRateEra ["Current Macro Reality"] E["Elevated Interest Rates"] --> F["Negative Arbitrage"] F --> G["Financial Engineering Fails"] G --> H["Focus on Design & Product Quality"] H --> I["Rent Outperformance via Placemaking"] end ```

---

`17:50` The Kafkaesque Process of Building an LA Crosswalk

The discussion moves to the practical nightmare of improving public infrastructure around private developments. Lasry shares his experience attempting to install a standard pedestrian crosswalk at the intersection of Clinton Street and Western Avenue. When asked about the bureaucratic hurdles, the room erupts in laughter as Lasry characterizes the permitting and installation process as straight out of "a Kafka novel." After celebrating an approval notice, the development team discovered that the municipal timeline was pegged at "a few years or more"—a vague timeframe that one host jokes mirrors the unpredictability of vintage record bins labeled "99 cents and up."

Beyond the multi-year wait, the city offloads immense financial and technical burdens onto private sponsors. Far from simply painting stripes on asphalt, the city quoted a price tag of roughly $1 million for a single signalized crossing. The municipality requires the private developer to fully fund extensive engineering assessments, electrical overhauls, and the installation of an underground utility vault, creating an extractive dynamic where agencies demand, "what are you going to do for us?" Bill McBride observes that this anecdote reflects the universal complaint heard from homebuilders and developers: across both infill projects and broader suburban developments, restrictive policies, obsolete zoning codes, and regulatory bottlenecks represent the single greatest hurdle to building housing and infrastructure in America today.

- **Crosswalk Location**: Clinton Street and Western Avenue in Los Angeles. - **Estimated Cost**: Quoted at approximately $1,000,000 to add signals, electrical connections, and an underground vault. - **Timeline**: Officially approved with an estimated delivery timeline of "a few years or more." - **Builder Consensus**: According to Bill McBride, regulatory permitting and zoning constraints remain the number-one complaint voiced by both infill and master-planned builders.

`20:00` The LA Parking Dilemma and the Promise of Autonomous Vehicles

The discussion turns to one of the most contentious realities of Southern California urbanism: parking versus walkable design. Despite hopes for a more walkable Los Angeles, driving remains the default, presenting developers with an acute trade-off between dedicating large swaths of prime land to parking lots or using that footprint for attractive, profitable buildings. Zach Lasry admits that parking has historically been his biggest blind spot after spending most of his life in New York City without driving. Angelenos constantly grill him on parking arrangements, often prioritizing parking access over the quality of tenant amenities or restaurants. The hosts and guests highlight the cultural reality of car reliance in LA, from driving just half a block north instead of walking, to the logistical ordeal parents face buckling children into car seats along congested corridors like Fairfax Avenue.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Autonomous Vehicles Impact on Urban Design accDescr: Diagram illustrating how the adoption of self-driving cars eliminates parking pressures and restructures neighborhoods.

subgraph Problem["Current Parking Bottlenecks"] A["Dense Urban Infill & ADUs"] --> B["Streets Congested with Parked Cars"] C["Garages Dominate Street-Facing Architecture"] end

subgraph Solution["Widespread Autonomous Vehicles"] D["On-Demand Fleets & Centralized Depots"] end

subgraph Impacts["Urban Restructuring"] D --> E["Reclaim Street & Garage Space for Living"] D --> F["Fewer Routine Police Stops"] D --> G["Depleted Municipal Speeding Ticket Revenues"] end

B -.-> D ```

Bill McBride notes that California's push for Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) has compounded the neighborhood parking crunch because the state relaxed off-street parking requirements for ADU construction, leaving residential streets completely packed. Lasry points to Koreatown as having some of the most extreme parking shortages in the world, where residents coordinate spots in elaborate hand-offs. The panel envisions how widespread autonomous vehicles could fundamentally reorganize cities. Instead of consuming neighborhood space, autonomous cars could drop passengers off and return to centralized holding lots. Beyond eliminating ugly, garage-forward residential facades, self-driving fleets could drastically reduce routine traffic stops and police interactions, while simultaneously wiping out speeding ticket revenues that local municipalities rely upon.

- **ADU Parking Exemptions:** State regulations allowing ADU construction without mandatory off-street parking spaces have heavily intensified curbside parking battles across LA neighborhoods. - **Koreatown Congestion:** Noted as an extreme urban case study where residents coordinate spot hand-offs and idle in cars waiting for open street spaces.

---

`22:36` Sourcing Electrical Transformers and the Long-Term Bull Case for LA

The conversation shifts to post-pandemic construction supply chain frictions, specifically the intense competition for heavy electrical equipment, HVAC systems, and grid transformers. Asked whether component delays continue to disrupt project timelines, Zach Lasry confirms developers must aggressively "fight for it." Rather than a standard procurement process, securing high-voltage transformers requires finding specialized intermediaries ("a guy who knows a guy"), purchasing units far in advance, and stockpiling them in warehouses or garages until installation. Tracy Alloway jokes that stockpiling critical electrical transformers sounds like the ultimate supply-chain prepper asset.

Despite bureaucratic and supply hurdles, the panel remains deeply optimistic about Los Angeles's long-term fundamentals. Lasry proclaims that Los Angeles "has the highest ceiling of any city in the world," citing its climate, cultural weight, and natural beauty. McBride agrees with the bullish assessment, but emphasizes that Southern California's future hinges on solving two existential constraints: the sky-high cost of housing and long-term water scarcity.

- **Equipment Procurement Workarounds:** Developers are forced to secure critical utility hardware like transformers months or years ahead of schedule and self-store them to prevent construction stalls. - **LA's Core Vulnerabilities:** High housing costs and California water management remain the two primary headwinds capping the region's otherwise immense upside.

---

`24:50` Episode Wrap-Up and Credits

Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway wrap up the live episode from The Vermont Hollywood, thanking Bill McBride and Zach Lasry for their insights into residential building and the economics of Los Angeles real estate. Tracy and Joe sign off, giving social handles for themselves and producers Carmen Rodriguez, Dashel Bennett, Kel Brooks, and Kevin Lozano, while directing listeners to the Bloomberg *Odd Lots* newsletter and community Discord server.

## Notable quotes > `03:02` Oh no, what's that going to be? — Zach Lasry

> `10:00` you'll be walking for a long time. — Joe Weisenthal

> `15:24` a bunch of people in a room of 140 IQ — Zach Lasry

> `15:24` oh God, not another one of those boring, generic apartment buildings — Zach Lasry

> `17:50` a Kafka novel — Zach Lasry

> `17:50` a few years or more

> `17:50` 99 cents and up — Joe Weisenthal

> `17:50` what are you going to do for us?

> `22:36` fight for it. — Zach Lasry

> `22:36` a guy who knows a guy — Zach Lasry

> `22:36` has the highest ceiling of any city in the world — Zach Lasry

## Mentioned Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, Bill McBride, Zach Lasry, Calculated Risk, Western Company, The Vermont Hollywood, Melrose Hill, Silver Lake, Echo Park, Highland Park, NYU, Pacific Coast Highway (PCH), A24, Shake Shack, Marvel, Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Greenwich Village, Western Avenue, Melrose Avenue, Clinton Street, Fairfax Avenue, Koreatown, Odd Lots, Bloomberg, Carmen Rodriguez, Dashel Bennett, Kel Brooks, Kevin Lozano

## Video description Bill McBride did not just predict the 2008 housing bubble, he helped invent financial blogging with his Calculated Risk newsletter. Zach Lasry, meanwhile, is much newer to the scene, but in his career as a real estate developer, he is already responsible for building one of LA's hottest new neighborhoods — Melrose Hill. We spoke to both of them at our live show at the Vermont Hollywood, for a wide-ranging panel discussion on LA real estate. We talk about the difficulty of sourcing construction components, the Kafkaesque process of getting a crosswalk built in LA, and how self-driving cars might help reshape the city and solve its longstanding issues with parking. Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/mortgage-rates-at-7-push-sellers-to-cut-home-sale-prices?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Mortgage Rates at 7% Are Forcing Home Sellers to Slash Prices</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-data-center-heat-pollution-cities/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">AI Data Centers Release Heat, Posing New Problem for Cities</a> Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a> <a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">discord.gg/oddlots</a>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.

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中文简报

加息终结财务套利，洛杉矶开发商转向设计高企的借贷成本瓦解了依靠电子表格测算的房地产收益，在严峻的市政与供应瓶颈下，精心策划的设计与场所营造成为实现盈利的唯一可行路径。这场在好莱坞录制的现场讨论探讨了为何洛杉矶房地产的运作规则与纽约等更密集的都市市场有着根本不同。开发商 Zach Lasry 阐述了他的公司如何像独立电影制片厂一样在 Melrose Hill 打造创意商业枢纽，并指出更高的利率终结了电子表格套利的时代，迫使建设者聚焦于建筑产品品质。《Calculated Risk》作者 Bill McBride 详述了加州的监管僵局，涵盖分区阻力、禁止降低分区密度法规，以及附属住宅单元（ADU）对路面停车带来的意料之外的后果。对话还深入探讨了极端的官僚阻碍（以单个人行横道高达 100 万美元且耗时数年的报价为典型代表）以及囤积变压器的后勤抢购潮，最后在住房可负担性与水资源限制的制约下表达了长期乐观态度。在洛杉矶 Clinton Street 和 Western Avenue 交口铺设一条人行横道的报价约为 100 万美元且工期长达数年且无明确截止期，凸显了城市填充项目所面临的监管阻力。 (17:50) 不断上升的借贷成本终结了商业地产中依靠电子表格进行金融工程的时代，迫使开发商依靠设计品质和精心策划的场所营造展开竞争，以维持租金增长。 (15:24) 洛杉矶约 95% 的土地被划为纯住宅用地，导致街区缺乏混合用途的辅街，而这类辅街原本能在主干道走向企业化连锁时保护独立零售业。 (10:00) 高压变压器和电气元件的供应链瓶颈已严重到迫使开发商通过非正式渠道采购并将设备囤积在车库中。 (22:36)

Reading summary

In Los Angeles, commercial real estate is caught between the city's low-density creative advantages and severe regulatory paralysis, forcing developers to pivot from spreadsheet financial engineering toward neighborhood placemaking. Developer Zach Lasry and economic analyst Bill McBride argue that while LA fosters unique independent retail, municipal friction—exemplified by million-dollar crosswalks and restrictive zoning—severely impedes urban growth. Retail Resilience and Urban Density Differences (4:25) Compared to New York City, Los Angeles maintains an unusual diversity of independent mom-and-pop storefronts and strip malls. Bill McBride attributes this to urban density: New York's high spatial density concentrates foot traffic and drives commercial rents to levels only national chains can afford, pricing out creative ventures. Conversely, LA's car-centric sprawl disperses commercial demand, keeping commercial and residential rents accessible enough for artists, chefs, and experimental operators to test unproven concepts. Zach Lasry likens tenant curation to film studio A24 scouting visionary directors, prioritizing distinctive local operators over formulaic corporate chains like Shake Shack. While experimental tenants present commercial risks, Lasry notes real estate carries structural downside protection: unlike a failed film production, land and building shells retain underlying residual value, enabling landlords to re-lease spaces if a concept flops. From Spreadsheet Arbitrage to Design-Driven Placemaking (15:24) The era of low interest rates permitted real estate developers to generate profits through financial engineering—optimizing spreadsheets to capture the spread between borrowing costs and capitalization rates. With interest rates now exceeding cap rates, Lasry argues this mathematical shortcut is broken, exposing a legacy of uninspired, cookie-cutter apartment complexes across Southern California. To achieve rent premiums in a tighter capital environment, developers are forced to compete on physical design quality and tenant experience. Drawing from Jane Jacobs's concept of the Greenwich Village "sidewalk ballet," Lasry's firm Western Company acquires contiguous clusters of properties in Melrose Hill to build a cohesive community ecosystem. However, this placemaking strategy encounters severe municipal constraints: roughly 95% of Los Angeles is zoned exclusively for residential use, leaving little commercial side-street capacity when primary retail corridors become overrun. Bureaucratic Friction and the Million-Dollar Crosswalk (17:50) Local infrastructure permitting imposes extraordinary financial and administrative burdens on private developers. Attempting to install a standard pedestrian crosswalk at Clinton Street and Western Avenue, Lasry encountered a process he described as Kafkaesque: the municipality quoted a delivery timeline of "a few years or more" and a budget of approximately $1 million. The city required the private developer to fully finance extensive engineering assessments, electrical upgrades, and the installation of an underground utility vault. McBride identifies regulatory bottlenecks, permitting delays, and obsolete zoning codes as the single largest complaint among American homebuilders and developers. While California has enacted statutory measures—such as legalizing accessory dwelling units (ADUs), barring the demolition of density, and banning wealthy homeowners from assembling multiple coastal parcels into private mega-compounds—core zoning modifications continue to meet stiff local resistance. Parking Pressures and Supply-Chain Workarounds (20:00) Car dependence forces developers into constant trade-offs between allocating land for parking or building functional density. McBride notes that state legislation exempting ADUs from mandatory off-street parking has heavily congested residential curbsides, leading to extreme parking coordination battles in neighborhoods like Koreatown. While the panel envisions that autonomous vehicle fleets could eventually reclaim street-facing garages and parking lots for housing, current streetscapes remain dominated by vehicles. Simultaneously, post-pandemic infrastructure supply chains remain broken. Sourcing essential high-voltage transformers and grid hardware requires developers to navigate informal intermediaries, purchase components years ahead of construction, and stockpile units in private warehouses to prevent costly project shutdowns. Despite severe bureaucratic delays, power grid friction, and pervasive car dependence, Lasry and McBride remain structurally bullish on Los Angeles due to its cultural prominence, climate, and untapped potential. However, McBride stresses that the region's long-term trajectory hinges on solving two unresolved structural bottlenecks: extreme housing costs and systemic water scarcity.

精炼阅读摘要

在彭博社《Odd Lots》节目中，房地产分析师比尔·麦克布莱德（Bill McBride）与商业开发商扎克·拉斯里（Zach Lasry）指出，洛杉矶房地产正经历从低利率时代的金融工程套利向注重实体空间与租户品质的转型，但僵化的区划制度、沉重拖沓的市政基建审批以及高强度的汽车依赖，构成了阻碍城市更新与住房供应的核心制度瓶颈。低密度红利与类A24独立商业策划 (4:25) 拉斯里与麦克布莱德分析指出，与纽约极度密集的客流推高商铺租金、迫使创意群体外流不同，洛杉矶漫长蔓延的低密度地理格局客观上分散了商业租金压力，为街区条形商场（strip malls）、小微独立店主及先锋概念餐饮保留了生存土壤。低廉的租金门槛为青年艺术家与创业者提供了试验创新的财务缓冲期。拉斯里将其在梅尔罗斯山（Melrose Hill）的招商策略类比于独立电影公司A24发掘先锋导演，主动规避标准化的连锁快餐，优先引入具有独特审美与文化张力的小微商户。针对先锋业态商业风险较高的质疑，拉斯里强调商业不动产具有独特的下行保护机制：与电影投资一旦票房惨败便彻底沉没不同，不动产拥有底层土地所有权与实体结构价值，即便个别实验性租户经营不善，开发商仍可保留原物业重新招租。利率拐点倒逼开发商告别金融工程 (15:24) 拉斯里认为，商业地产行业正在经历痛苦的去杠杆与估值重整，其根源在于过去数十年间开发商过度依赖低廉借贷成本与资本化率（Cap Rate）之间的财务利差，在电子表格上通过“金融工程”算账，从而在洛杉矶建造了大量同质化且缺乏美感的无趣公寓箱体。随着借贷利率走高并超过资产收益率，传统的利差套利模式宣告失效。在高利率宏观环境下，开发商若想维持租金增长并实现盈利，唯一可行的路径是转向建筑物理设计、空间体验与高标准的租户策划。拉斯里团队在梅尔罗斯山以简·雅各布斯（Jane Jacobs）笔下的“街道芭蕾”为灵感，收购成片相邻物业打造包含餐饮、零售与公共生活的街区生态系统；在行业下行周期中，这种对实体品质的重度投入使其项目得以逆势获得高额租金溢价。百万美元人行道背后的卡夫卡式审批 (17:50) 拉斯里分享了其团队尝试在克林顿街（Clinton Street）与西大道（Western Avenue）交口增设一条标准人行横道的遭遇，将其监管审批过程形容为置身于“卡夫卡式的小说”。在方案获得原则性批复后，市政机构给出的交付工期长达“数年或更久”，且单条带信号灯的人行横道被开出了约100万美元的高昂账单。该费用强制民间开发商全额资助复杂的工程评估、电网改造以及地下公共设施保险库的安装，将公用基建升级成本大幅转嫁。麦克布莱德强调，审批延宕与区划限制是全美建筑商面临的头号痛点。洛杉矶约95%的土地被严格划定为单一居住用途，导致主干商业街一旦被全国连锁垄断，周边街巷缺乏次级商铺的承接缓冲。尽管加州近年来出台了禁止拆除既有密度（如禁止拆除六套公寓改建四套豪宅）及限制富人圈地建超级豪宅的保护性法规，并通过了附属住宅单元（ADU）合法化，但对核心区划的微小改动依然面临强烈社会阻力。停车博弈与供应链短缺制约城市潜力 (20:00) 汽车依赖文化是洛杉矶难以落实紧凑步行街区的深层制约。麦克布莱德与拉斯里指出，加州推动的ADU政策因豁免了强制性路外停车位配置，导致居民涌向街头争抢车位，使如韩国城等原本停车极度紧张的街区雪上加霜。虽然小组畅想未来自动驾驶车队规模化后，有望收回被车库和路侧占用的宝贵土地、重构建筑临街形态并减少常规警务拦截，但短期内车位配备仍是消费者考量物业的首要指标。项目工程落地还饱受后疫情时代关键电气设备短缺的困扰。由于高压变压器和暖通设备极度匮乏，开发商无法通过常规途径采购，必须提前数月乃至数年通过特殊人际中介提前加价抢购并在仓库囤积。尽管拉斯里因南加州的气候、文化与自然禀赋将其发展上限誉为“全球最高”，麦克布莱德仍提醒，失控的高昂住房成本与长期的加州水资源短缺，依然是压制该地区潜力的两大生存级限制。本期节目揭示了洛杉矶在探索人本化、艺术化城市形态时所遭遇的制度性阻滞：尽管高利率环境倒逼开发主体从金融套利回归物理产品品质，但沉重昂贵的市政基建审批负担、高度排他的居住区划、汽车刚性依赖以及电网设备供应链危机，依然严重拖累了开发周期的推进速度与住房供给弹性。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 该音频由 Bloomberg 旗下的《Odd Lots》播客于 2026 年 9 月 28 日在 RSS 及各大网络平台发布。根据官方简介，本期为在好莱坞佛蒙特剧院（The Vermont Hollywood）举办的现场活动录音，主持人邀请了 Calculated Risk 创始人 Bill McBride 与 Melrose Hill 街区开发者 Zach Lasry，共同探讨洛杉矶房地产市场、建材供应链困扰、增设人行横道所面临的卡夫卡式官僚壁垒，以及自动驾驶对城市停车痛点的潜在重塑。 ## TL;DR 节目深入剖析了洛杉矶独特的房地产生态与开发困境。新锐商业地产开发者 Zach Lasry 阐述了他借鉴电影制片厂 A24 的模式，在 Melrose Hill 聚合街区并引入独具特色的独立商户，告别单纯依赖利率套利的金融工程，转而聚焦产品本身的打磨；知名宏观分析师 Bill McBride 则揭示了加州分区法规、ADU 政策对居住密度与停车带来的复杂连锁效应。对谈还生动揭露了在洛杉矶申请修建斑马线等公共基建时遭遇的卡夫卡式官僚阻碍与高额转嫁成本，并讨论了为抢购变压器等供应链物资的激烈博弈，以及未来完全自动驾驶可能给城市形态与市政收入带来的颠覆性变革。 ## Atmosphere & style 现场录音氛围轻松风趣而又不失深刻犀利的专业底色，台下不时传出心领神会的笑声与互动。主持人与两位嘉宾默契十足，在严谨的宏观数据拆解与鲜活接地气的街头开发逸事之间自由切换——既有对“停好车再挪半个街区”等洛杉矶人生活怪癖的幽默调侃，也有直面行政官僚拖延、天价基建账单时的无奈叹息。整场对话充盈着创业者改造城市的浪漫理想与现实制度摩擦碰撞出的张力，既透着对南加州气候与城市上限的坚定乐观，又带着对制度痼疾冷静清醒的省思。 ## Bulletin - `15:00` 商业地产逻辑正从金融工程重返产品思维：借贷利率高企打破了传统资本化率（Cap Rate）套利模型，倒逼开发商依靠极致的设计品味与街区营造实现逆势租金增长。 - `10:00` 洛杉矶约95%的土地被划为纯住宅分区，缺乏纽约式的商住混合支路网络，使得主干道一旦被连锁品牌占据，整个社区便极易彻底丧失公共生活与文化活力。 - `15:00` 城市公共基建审批深陷卡夫卡式官僚泥潭：增设一条人行横道不仅审批耗时数年且工期无上限，高达上百万美元的信号灯与地下电气管线成本更全额转嫁给开发商。 - `22:20` AI数据中心繁荣引发严峻供应链挤兑：配电变压器等电网关键设备极度匮乏，商业地产开发者不得不动用私人门路提前全款抢购并仓储囤积。 ## Key takeaways - `05:00` 洛杉矶地广人稀的城市蔓延形态与相对纽约更具性价比的租金，为极度垂直的独立小商户和青年艺术创作者提供了生存土壤。 - `06:30` 商业地产借鉴独立电影制片厂A24模式筛选先锋租户；相比电影票房扑街后的全额减值，实体物业保留了底层残值，抗风险与迭代能力更强。 - `08:00` 加州分区法规是限制住宅供给的核心枷锁，尽管法律明令禁止改建中降低密度，海滨富人区却频繁出现将相邻多栋房屋拆除合并为单一超级豪宅的逆向现象。 - `10:00` 成片收购、统一规划的聚合街区开发模式能够像交响乐般激活社区，对抗洛杉矶绝大多数主街千篇一律、平庸无聊的免税店化趋势。 - `15:00` 宏观加息周期终结了拉高杠杆、依靠低借贷成本与资本化率利差套利的传统地产玩法，好审美与好产品重新成为溢价核心。 - `15:00` 在洛杉矶增设斑马线审批漫长、条件苛刻且成本高达上百万美元，住宅建筑商深陷僵化的政策监管与严苛官僚壁垒中。 - `20:00` 停车问题是洛杉矶商业开发的首要痛点，缺乏路外停车配比要求的ADU政策进一步加剧了住宅社区的停车危机。 - `20:00` 完全自动驾驶有望通过远程集中停放释放大量城市地表商业用地，并消除独栋住宅临街正面突兀丑陋的车库设计。 - `20:00` 自动驾驶普及将显著降低交警拦截执法的频次，但同时也会大幅削减违章罚单收入，给地方市政财政带来潜在冲击。 - `22:20` 电网设备与暖通空调供应链遭遇AI数据中心截流，配电变压器等基础电气构件成为开发商必须提前自建仓库囤积的稀缺硬通货。 - `22:20` 尽管具备全球顶级的自然气候与发展上限，高昂的住房生活成本和水资源长期匮乏依然是制约洛杉矶未来的两大核心命门。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` 现场开场：洛杉矶房地产的传奇与新锐在好莱坞佛蒙特剧院（The Vermont Hollywood）举办的《Odd Lots》现场播客活动中，主持人 Joe Weisenthal 与 Tracy Alloway 登台开场。好莱坞向来以繁荣的房地产市场闻名，而宏观经济与住房环境的剧烈变迁正在深刻重塑这座城市的面貌。本场对谈邀请了两位背景迥异但极具代表性的重磅嘉宾：一位是住宅房地产领域的泰斗级分析师、知名博客 Calculated Risk 的创办人 Bill McBride，他不仅在 2008 年次贷危机前精准预警了房地产泡沫，更在危机后敏锐捕捉到了市场触底反弹的拐点；另一位则是商业地产领域的新锐开发者、Western Company 创始人 Zach Lasry，他正在洛杉矶打造近年来极具话题度的新兴街区 Melrose Hill。对谈伊始，Joe 询问 Zach 的日常工作。Zach 自称“房地产专业人士”（real estate professional），但他希望打破这个头衔通常带来的枯燥刻板印象。Zach 拥有戏剧与表演背景，2014 年迁居洛杉矶。他观察到银湖（Silver Lake）、回音公园（Echo Park）或高地公园（Highland Park）等街区常常自发涌现出极具活力的文化氛围，但每当街区立起建筑脚手架时，当地居民的第一反应往往是沮丧的叹息——“天哪，这儿又要盖什么鬼东西了？”他认为，一座新建筑的诞生本应伴随着期待与好奇，商业地产界长期以来缺乏激发人心的想象力，而他的目标正是将艺术与创造力注入传统的地产开发流程之中。 ### `05:00` 独立小店的生存之谜：洛杉矶与纽约的密度与租金反差 Tracy 抛出一个常让外来访客好奇的经典洛杉矶议题：与纽约相比，洛杉矶保留了大量令人惊叹的独立小商户（mom-and-pop shops）。她在前往剧院的路上甚至偶遇了一家专门的“油毡地毯商场”（linoleum emporium），这种极度垂直细分的独立小店在当下的纽约几乎绝迹。针对这一现象，Zach 与 Bill 从不同维度展开了解读： - **生活成本与艺术家的迁徙**：Zach 毕业于纽约大学（NYU），他提到身边最才华横溢的朋友大多因纽约高昂的生活成本而搬到了洛杉矶。虽然在洛杉矶买房同样昂贵，但租客依然能在极具活力的街区找到性价比合理的租约。相比在纽约为了糊口疲于奔命，创作者在洛杉矶更能专注于自己的技艺与艺术追求，这也培育了一大批勇于尝试、探索新创意的群体。 - **城市密度与商业租金逻辑**：Bill 从城市规划和密度的角度指出，纽约的高容积率导致单位面积的租金极其高昂，挤压了独立商户的生存空间；相比之下，洛杉矶地广人稀、极度分散，使得小商户得以在沿街铺面中顽强生存。以他自己居住的太平洋海岸公路（PCH, Pacific Coast Highway）社区为例，沿途绝大多数都是家庭式小店和少量连锁餐厅。不过 Bill 也直言，这种极度分散蔓延的形态绝非长久之计，洛杉矶必须正视土地分区规划的改革。 - **沿街脱衣商场的混搭美学**：Joe 对此产生共鸣，坦言自己极其迷恋洛杉矶典型的带状商业街（strip malls）。在同一个商场门面里，韩国餐厅、牙齿冷光美白店、电子烟店与空手道道馆紧挨在一起，这种看似随意的组合展现了真正野蛮生长的多元混合用途。 ### `06:30` 商业地产的“A24模式”与租户筛选机制当被问及如何让新建建筑真正激发大众的兴奋感时，Zach 将他们的租户筛选机制比作独立电影制片厂 A24 挖掘导演的方式：核心在于寻找具备独特艺术愿景的创作者，而不是千篇一律地引进连锁品牌。虽然类似 Shake Shack 这样的汉堡连锁在机场体验极佳，但街区并不需要遍地都是标准化的连锁店；无论是制作烘焙糕点还是打理特色店铺，只有当经营者对自己的事业抱有极致热情时，才能为街区带来耳目一新的生命力。面对 Tracy 关于“品味与商业盈利之间是否存在权衡”的追问，Zach 解释了商业地产与影视投资在风险逻辑上的本质区别： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 影视投资与商业地产投资风险机制对比 accDescr: 对比A24电影模式与商业地产在项目失败时的资产残值保留情况 subgraph Movie["电影投资 (如 A24)"] M1["投资制作极具品味的艺术电影"] --> M2{"票房不及预期 / 无人观影"} M2 --> M3["全部投资直接计提坏账减值"] end subgraph RealEstate["商业地产投资 (Western Company)"] R1["引入极具品味与愿景的先锋租户"] --> R2{"租户经营不善 / 业务失败"} R2 --> R3["实体物业仍完整保留底层价值"] R3 --> R4["重新调整定位并引入全新租户"] end ``` 在电影行业，如果一部高口碑小众影片票房惨败，投资人只能将亏损全额计提减值；但在房地产行业，即便某个实验性质的租户不幸倒闭，核心的物业资产依然存在，地段价值不会凭空蒸发，开发商随时可以引入下一个租户进行迭代。 ### `08:00` 加州分区法规的枷锁与反向“豪宅化”困境话题转向土地利用与开发监管的核心痛点——分区规划（Zoning）。Joe 询问在追求住房可负担性与街区活力的过程中，监管法规扮演了多大的角色。Bill 毫不犹豫地指出，对于房屋建筑商和公寓开发商而言，分区法规就是整个开发方程式中“最大的一块拼图”，且修改分区极为艰难。加州近年来在法律层面做出了一些边际调整，包括允许加建附属居住单元（ADUs, Accessory Dwelling Units）以及在主要交通枢纽周边提高开发密度。但 Bill 强调，ADU 的放开对整体住房供应的增量依然杯水车薪。更关键的矛盾在于，加州在四五年前就宣布进入了法定“住房危机状态”，法律明令禁止在改建中“降低居住密度”——例如禁止将原本拥有 6 套住宅的公寓楼推倒改建成仅有 4 套的高档公寓。然而现实中却出现了荒诞的逆向发展：在许多富裕的海滨社区，资本雄厚的买家接连买下相邻的两三栋独立住宅，将其拆除后合并改造成一座真正的巨型超级豪宅（而不是常规意义上的 McMansion），直接导致海滩社区的实际居住密度不升反降，这与加州解决住房危机、增加供给密度的宏观政策初衷完全背道而驰。 ### `10:00` 社区交响乐：聚合街区开发与洛杉矶的分区困境在地产开发中，绝大多数开发商通常只是挑拣零散的地块，孤立地建造单栋建筑。然而，扎克·拉斯里（Zach Lasry）在 Melrose Hill（梅尔罗斯山）的做法却截然不同。比尔·麦克布莱德（Bill McBride）指出，拉斯里正在将整片街区聚合成一个有机社区，“就像一场交响乐一样”：不仅买下单座大楼，而是成片收购多栋建筑，引入特色独立餐饮，注入整体规划愿景。拉斯里解释称，自己在 Western Avenue 和 Melrose Avenue 的构想，灵感主要来自简·雅各布斯（Jane Jacobs）的经典著作《美国大城市的死与生》（*The Death and Life of Great American Cities*），尤其是书中描述的纽约格林威治村（Greenwich Village）那种充满活力的“人行道芭蕾”（sidewalk ballet）。在纽约长大的他对此深有体会——格林威治村的魅力在于哪怕只是漫无目的地闲逛，身处其中便是在感受文化。然而，这种体验在洛杉矶几乎是缺失的。洛杉矶仅有极少数拿得出手的商业主街，而且这些街道随着时间推移，往往会沦为千篇一律的“机场免税商场”。导致这种局面的核心根源在于两座城市的土地分区差异： - **纽约市的分区以商住混合（Mixed-Use）为主**：即使主干道被高租金和大型连锁品牌占据，行人和顾客依然可以拐进支路和小巷，发现有趣的独立店铺与本土文化。 - **洛杉矶约 95% 的区域被划为纯住宅用地（Residentially Zoned）**：一旦主街失去个性和文化活力，整个社区就彻底丧失了公共生活，因为街道两旁除了住宅别无他物。现场主持人随即调侃起社交媒体上关于“城市可步步行（Walkability）”的常客争论。纽约通常被公认为步行天堂，而洛杉矶则常年在榜单垫底。不过，主持人笑称洛杉矶其实是个极佳的散步城市，因为这里天气常年晴朗宜人，即便走上一小时也毫不介意；另一位主持人则打趣反驳道，人们谈论的可步行性是指生活机能的便利，“可不是指你得走上漫漫长路”。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 城市分区模式对街区活力的影响对比 accDescr: 对比纽约与洛杉矶在商业主街、侧街及分区上的机制差异 subgraph NYC ["纽约模式 (混合分区)"] N1["主干道租金攀升/连锁化"] --> N2["外溢至支路/侧街"] N2 --> N3["小体量独立商铺存活，保留街区文化活力"] end subgraph LA ["洛杉矶模式 (95% 纯住宅分区)"] L1["商业主街沦为平庸连锁店"] --> L2["周边 95% 为纯住宅用地"] L2 --> L3["缺乏弹性商业空间，街区文化彻底流失"] end ``` --- ### `15:00` 告别金融工程：重返产品思维与卡夫卡式的人行横道面对影视等传统支柱产业的下行压力以及宏观经济的逆风，商业地产（Commercial Real Estate）的发展逻辑正在发生深刻转变。拉斯里直言，过去很长一段时间里，商业地产界赚钱完全依赖“金融工程”（Financial Engineering）——依靠资本化率（Cap Rate）与低借贷利率之间的利差套利，拉一屋子智商 140 的分析师在 Excel 电子表格里算模型就能盈利。然而，当前基准利率高企，借贷成本已经反超了购入资产的资本化率，昔日的套利空间彻底破灭。如今的商业地产不得不回归本质——**做出真正过硬的产品**。拉斯里指出，目前洛杉矶新建了大量公寓楼，但普通市民路过时只会觉得它们“无聊又平庸”，毫无审美可言；而他们通过重金投资设计、引入优秀人才打造独特的街区产品，成功逆势实现了租金上涨。然而，在洛杉矶推进高品质街区开发，甚至连改善公共基础设施都会遭遇荒诞的官僚壁垒。谈及在街区增设斑马线（Crosswalk）的经历，拉斯里形容这“宛如一部卡夫卡式的小说（Kafkaesque）”： - **审批漫长无期**：他们收到了关于在 Clinton 与 Western 路口修建人行横道的批准邮件，但信中预计的完工时间竟是“几年或更久之后（a few years or more）”，主持人调侃这就像黑胶唱片店里标着“99美分起”的廉价甩卖箱，上限深不见底。 - **费用转嫁与苛刻条件**：官方声称批准项目，但开发商必须自掏腰包承担全部费用。安装一组交通信号灯的报价高达上百万美元，监管部门还会提出各种附加要求，诸如负责复杂的电气工程、在地底开凿专用管线舱（vault）等，层层设卡。麦克布莱德也对此表示共鸣，他透露不仅是独立改造开发者，即便是主流的大型住宅建筑商（Home Builders）和填充式建筑商（Infill Builders），当下最核心的困扰同样并非市场愿景，而是深陷在僵化的政策、复杂的土地分区以及严苛的官僚监管泥潭之中。 ### `20:00` 洛杉矶的停车悖论与自动驾驶对城市格局的重塑在探讨洛杉矶城市建设时，停车问题成了绕不开的核心矛盾。尽管主持人 Joe 戏称洛杉矶是个适合步行的城市，但现实中绝大多数人仍然高度依赖汽车。对于商业开发商而言，如果要在打造具有美感、格调优雅的社区街区与划出大面积丑陋的地面停车场之间做权衡，往往面临着极大的痛点。 Zach Lasry 坦言，停车问题曾是自己最大的盲区。因为他在纽约生活了大半辈子，过去大部分时间根本不开车。当他来到洛杉矶做开发时，本地居民最关心的永远是：“那里的停车位情况怎么样？” Lasry 最初十分不解，觉得大家更应该关心入驻了什么餐厅、街区氛围如何，但本地人坚决表示找不到车位就根本不会去。他甚至分享了一个典型的洛杉矶朋友轶事：两人开车停好后，仅仅因为下一个目的地在半个街区以北，那位朋友都要特意把车开出来，挪到半个街区之外重新停一次。对于有孩子的家庭来说，需要频繁在车内拆装儿童安全座椅，像 Fairfax 这类街区极其糟糕的停车条件会直接劝退消费者，除非商家安排代客泊车（valet parking）。随后，Bill McBride 提到了附加住宅单元（ADU）对停车带来的连锁冲击。政策规定建造 ADU 不需要配备额外的路外停车位（off-street parking），结果导致大量建设 ADU 的社区路边被挤得水泄不通，停车拥堵比以往更甚。Zach 补充道，洛杉矶韩国城（Koreatown）的停车状况堪称全球最夸张的地方之一：整条街一位难求，常有人一整天守在车里，有人离开时甚至需要多方协同抢位。针对停车难题，众人将目光投向了完全自动驾驶（Autonomous Vehicles）。一旦真正的自动驾驶普及，城市的空间结构将迎来深远重塑： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 自动驾驶对城市形态与财政的重塑机制 accDescr: 展示自动驾驶技术如何影响城市空间分配、住宅外观和地方财政收入。 A["普及完全自动驾驶"] --> B["车辆集中停靠远程大型车库"] A --> C["取消住宅前置车库"] A --> D["减少人类驾驶行为"] B --> E["释放高价值城市地面空间与商业用地"] C --> F["改善住宅外观设计与社区街景"] D --> G["警方执法干预频率显著降低"] D --> H["超速罚单等违章收入锐减（财政承压）"] ``` - **住宅美学变革**：Bill 提到，现有的大量独栋住宅在临街正面都建有突出的车库，视觉上非常丑陋；没有私家车后，这些难看的车库将彻底消失。 - **警民关系与地方财政**：自动驾驶将大幅减少交警拦截执法的频率，但随之而来的是超速罚单（speeding ticket）等市政违章收入的锐减，给地方财政带来新的挑战。 --- ### `22:20` 供应链争夺战：囤积变压器与洛杉矶的长期潜力话题转向当前建筑行业的供应链短缺。主持人询问，随着近年来人工智能和数据中心对电力基础设施的爆发式需求，暖通空调（HVAC）、电网设备尤其是配电变压器（Transformers）的供应短缺是否影响到了商业地产的开发工期。 Zach Lasry 直言，为了拿到变压器等核心物资，开发商必须全力去“抢”（You got to fight for it）。面对所谓“与供应商维护良好关系”的客套话，现实操作其实简单粗暴：就是得“找到那个真正有门路的人”（find a guy who knows a guy），并且必须提前自掏腰包买下、自行找仓库储存起来。主持人 Tracy 调侃 Zach 是否在某个秘密车库里堆满了变压器，甚至可以成为生存狂备灾清单（prepper checklist）上的硬通货资产。谈到洛杉矶的整体未来，现场嘉宾依然表达了极强的看多态度（LA bull）。尽管洛杉矶在行政审批和基建上常常令人头疼，但其得天独厚的气候与自然环境依然无可替代。Zach 总结道：“洛杉矶拥有全世界所有城市中最高的发展上限（has the highest ceiling of any city in the world）。”不过，Bill McBride 也指出了洛杉矶必须正视的两大核心硬伤： 1. **住房成本（Cost of Housing）**：高昂的房价与租金直接制约了城市活力； 2. **水资源短缺（Water Supply）**：整个加利福尼亚州长期面临的命脉级资源挑战。 --- ### `25:00` 现场收尾与节目制作信息录音尾声，主持人 Tracy Alloway 与 Joe Weisenthal 感谢了在 Vermont Hollywood 现场出席《Odd Lots》录制的嘉宾 Bill McBride（Calculated Risk 创始人）与 Zach Lasry（Melrose Hill 开发者）。随后公布了制作团队成员信息（Carmen Rodriguez、Dashiell Bennett、Kale Brooks、Kevin Lozano），并邀请听众订阅彭博社的 Odd Lots 每日通讯以及加入 Discord 社群探讨房地产与宏观经济议题。 ## Notable quotes > `00:00` 天哪，这儿又要盖什么鬼东西了？ — Zach Lasry > `10:00` 就像一场交响乐一样 — Bill McBride > `10:00` 人行道芭蕾 — Zach Lasry > `10:00` 可不是指你得走上漫漫长路 — 主持人 > `15:00` 无聊又平庸 — Zach Lasry > `15:00` 宛如一部卡夫卡式的小说 — Zach Lasry > `15:00` 几年或更久之后 — Zach Lasry > `20:00` 那里的停车位情况怎么样？ — Zach Lasry > `22:20` 抢 — Zach Lasry > `22:20` 找到那个真正有门路的人 — Zach Lasry > `22:20` 洛杉矶拥有全世界所有城市中最高的发展上限 — Zach Lasry ## Mentioned Bill McBride, Zach Lasry, Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, Calculated Risk, Western Company, Melrose Hill, The Vermont Hollywood, Odd Lots, A24, Jane Jacobs, 《美国大城市的死与生》, Shake Shack, Fairfax, Koreatown, Silver Lake, Echo Park, Highland Park, Pacific Coast Highway, Greenwich Village, Carmen Rodriguez, Dashiell Bennett, Kale Brooks, Kevin Lozano, Bloomberg ## Video description Bill McBride did not just predict the 2008 housing bubble, he helped invent financial blogging with his Calculated Risk newsletter. Zach Lasry, meanwhile, is much newer to the scene, but in his career as a real estate developer, he is already responsible for building one of LA's hottest new neighborhoods — Melrose Hill. We spoke to both of them at our live show at the Vermont Hollywood, for a wide-ranging panel discussion on LA real estate. We talk about the difficulty of sourcing construction components, the Kafkaesque process of getting a crosswalk built in LA, and how self-driving cars might help reshape the city and solve its longstanding issues with parking. Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/mortgage-rates-at-7-push-sellers-to-cut-home-sale-prices?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Mortgage Rates at 7% Are Forcing Home Sellers to Slash Prices</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-data-center-heat-pollution-cities/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">AI Data Centers Release Heat, Posing New Problem for Cities</a> Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a> <a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">discord.gg/oddlots</a>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information. [Source](https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/7a3568d9-8263-4e3a-8f8f-b4d00139959f/audio.mp3?in_playlist=982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83)

Source quotes

[0:00] Zach Lasry: 天哪，这儿又要盖什么鬼东西了？ [10:00] Bill McBride: 就像一场交响乐一样 [10:00] Zach Lasry: 人行道芭蕾 [10:00] 主持人: 可不是指你得走上漫漫长路 [15:00] Zach Lasry: 无聊又平庸 [15:00] Zach Lasry: 宛如一部卡夫卡式的小说 [15:00] Zach Lasry: 几年或更久之后 [20:00] Zach Lasry: 那里的停车位情况怎么样？ [22:20] Zach Lasry: 抢 [22:20] Zach Lasry: 找到那个真正有门路的人 [22:20] Zach Lasry: 洛杉矶拥有全世界所有城市中最高的发展上限

Source quotes

[3:02] Zach Lasry: Oh no, what's that going to be? [10:00] Joe Weisenthal: you'll be walking for a long time. [15:24] Zach Lasry: a bunch of people in a room of 140 IQ [15:24] Zach Lasry: oh God, not another one of those boring, generic apartment buildings [17:50] Zach Lasry: a Kafka novel [17:50] a few years or more [17:50] Joe Weisenthal: 99 cents and up [17:50] what are you going to do for us? [22:36] Zach Lasry: fight for it. [22:36] Zach Lasry: a guy who knows a guy [22:36] Zach Lasry: has the highest ceiling of any city in the world

Original transcript

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If you listen to financial news, you know a lot of time is spent thinking about what's next. the next opportunity, the next investment. The next move. But sometimes what matters most is being ready for what you never saw coming. For more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has worked with independent agents to help protect businesses, homes, valuables, and more. Because planning for the future isn't only about knowing what's next, It's about making sure you're ready for what you can't predict. Let Cincinnati insurance make your bad day better. Find an independent agent at CINFIN.com. Hello, and welcome to another live episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. So we're here at the Vermont Theater in Hollywood. And of course, You talk about Hollywood, but you also have to talk about the real estate industry. We know this has always been a hub of booming real estate industry. But what do the changes in economic development and the housing market, how does it manifest itself here? That's right. So we have a real treat for you. We're going to be speaking to an absolute legend in the world of residential real estate, someone who actually called the subprime bubble before 2008 and maybe even more importantly, called the bottom of the housing market after 2008. to be speaking to a relative newcomer in the world of commercial property, someone who's doing new things in L.A. and trying to develop basically a new neighborhood. So enjoy our conversation with the legend Bill McBride of calculated risk, as well as Zach Lassery, real estate developer founder of the Western Company. Thank you both so much. Zach, what do you do? What's your job? I'm a real estate professional. OK, what does that mean? Because there are a lot of people who could say those words. So my goal with the Western Company, the goal that we have, that being able to say, I'm a real estate professional. Okay. It's more exciting than it normally is. So I come from a theater and acting background, And what I noticed was-- The developments that I was seeing in Los Angeles moved here in about 2014. You'd have a really exciting neighborhood pop up in Silver Lake or Echo Park or Highland Park. And then whenever scaffolding would go up for a new building, There's generally a... Oh. Oh, no. What's that going to be? That's not the reaction that you should have when a new building is being built. There should be some excitement. What is that going to be? What kind of... new creative spirit is going to enter into that structure. And I just don't think... the commercial real estate industry, is that inspiring in that way? Those outcomes haven't been so inspiring. So, our goal is to sort of infuse development with the art spirit. So I'm going to ask a very basic L.A. question, and I'd be curious to get both your takes on this. And again, Joe gave the caveat earlier, which is we've been to L.A. a couple of times, but we don't know that much about it. Whenever I come here... I am sort of stunned by the diversity of independent businesses compared to New York. I think about this all the time. Yeah, there's so many mom-and-pop shops. Like... I passed by a linoleum emporium on the way over here, which I just don't think you would ever see... In New York. And I'm sure the direction of travel for a lot of independent businesses isn't that great. But how have so many managed to survive in L.A. so far compared to other places in the U.S.? I went to school in New York, went to NYU, and A lot of my most... talented friends left New York and moved to Los Angeles. [5:00] because New York just got too expensive. And LA, while it's expensive to buy a home in LA, you can generally find a good rental deal in a really exciting neighborhood. It's a lot harder to do that in New York City. So you have people who... are just dedicated to their craft, who can survive in L.A. and focus on their art, Versus in New York, it's a lot more difficult to be able to focus on your craft while being able to pay rent. Hmm. So I think you just have more of an experimental group of people who are moving out here and who exist and trying to start and create new ideas. Bill, thoughts? I would also address the density issue. Yeah. In New York, you have really high density and therefore you're going to have high rent for a particular location. Here, we're really spread out. Yeah. Which is an issue, by the way. We should address zoning in LA because we can't stay spread out forever, or as spread out as we are. But I think that's a reason that you see so many mom and pop shops, which is great. In my community, I live right off PCH, Pacific Coast Highway, and most of the stores are mom and pops. There are some chain restaurants and stuff. So I think it's the density. I have to say, I've talked about this, I love strip malls. I love seeing like The Korean restaurant next to the tooth whitening place, next to the vape shop, next to the karate school, next to the... Like, to me, like, that's, like, one of my favorite... I love driving by. Truly multi-use development. But... Zach, when you're thinking about, OK, you want this to be-- you want to create a building. that actually get people excited rather than another building. What are the ingredients to that? I think you have to be focused on... So the way that we're trying to approach finding tenants, we like to think of it like almost like how A24 tries to find filmmakers. Yeah, okay. So... how can we find someone who has a vision? We're not trying to find another Shake Shack. I mean-- Yeah, thanks. So Shake Shack's awesome. I love going to Shake Shack when I'm at the airport, but I don't necessarily need-- Chick shack everywhere else. So I think people get a lot more excited when people are trying new things and are trying to test the limits of even... Pastries, whatever it is, if you're passionate about a thing, then that passion usually translates into an exciting new result. So that's how we approach trying to find tennis. How do you think about the trade off, if there is one, between taste and I guess profitability? Because I think about A24. A24 makes a bunch of really good movies. There are a lot of good movies out there that don't necessarily make a lot of money. And unfortunately, some of the movies that make a lot of money are, you know. Marvel superhero things that are the same thing over and over as we were discussing with Hayes. But like, how do you turn taste into actual profit when it comes to property? Yeah. Well, the lucky thing about real estate is even if the tenant fails, which is... sad, but the real estate still maintains its value and then a new tenant generally will come in. It's not like a movie where if no one sees the movie you just right off the loss. So the real estate generally retains value. even if there's a failure. Bill, you mentioned zoning. And one of the questions, you know, there's We've had a lot of conversations about zoning. But, you know, people fight about, oh, is it? Is this is this residential? Is this business, etc. From your perspective? Like when you think about we want to crack the puzzle, we want to make affordability, et cetera, we want this to be lively. In your research, how important is like getting that regulatory piece of the puzzle correct? Well, if you talk to the home builders or the apartment builders, it's the biggest piece. I think getting zoning changed I mean, you know, we've passed some things in California. California has. But... the ADU laws. ADUs are really taking off in a lot of parts of California. Now, the only problem is that's a small increase to the housing stock. But, you know, actual zoning is really – changing zoning is really hard. you know, they... They have done some things like near transport centers. You can build a lot higher density. One of the things that we're in an official housing crisis in California. So I think we're still in it. They announced it four or five years ago. And you weren't allowed to reduce density. So if you bought a six-unit apartment building, you couldn't build four condos. Or in my community, what was happening was... people with all kinds of money were buying two or three homes in a row and building a real mansion, not a McMansion. And they've stopped that. So because it because density was actually decreasing in the beach communities. which is kind of the opposite of what we kind [10:00] need. And I'm speaking a little bit against my own interest in that, because we'll have more traffic instead. Thank you for your public good. But by the way, just to add to Zach's comment, when I'm talking with him, I think one of the things that really adds value to what he's doing is he's taking an area... and building it into a community. and making it kind of like you go into that community, it's like a symphony. And I thought it was an incredibly exciting idea to not just build one building, which is what a lot of people do, but they are taking multiple buildings and trying to build a whole community with new restaurants and a real vision for that. And I think that will... that will have a real big impact. Zach, say more about that. So what happens when you're buying multiple buildings in a single neighborhood and sort of aggregating those developments versus maybe just like cherry picking a few properties that are scattered across the city? So yes, the idea for what we're doing on Western and Melrose came mostly from reading this book, The Death and Life of Great American Cities by Jane Jacobs. And she was talking about the sidewalk ballet in Greenwich Village. Yeah. And growing up in New York City, I had seen that firsthand. And Greenwich Village is one of the most exciting neighborhoods to just walk around and do nothing, because you're-- experiencing culture by just existing. And that was the one thing I felt like was missing in Los Angeles. There are a few of these great main streets in LA, but there's There's very few. And generally when they exist, they end up sort of turning into airport shopping malls eventually. And that's just very disappointing because speaking of zoning, New York is basically all mixed use. So if there's a street, I mean, Manhattan at this point is so expensive that it's hard to have independent businesses. But for a while, even if there were a lot of chains on one street, you could go to a side street and see something interesting. LA doesn't have the luxury of doing that because Roughly 95% of the city is residentially zoned. So if you have a community that has their main street have all of the culture and life taken out of it, then that's it. You got nothing because it's just residential around you. You know, sometimes there are these fights on Twitter where they talk about like, what are the best, most walkable cities? And it's like, oh, New York is very, very walkable. And then there's like, oh, LA is at the bottom. Except it's always so nice, the weather out here. I don't mind walking an hour. So I'm actually totally, I actually think LA is a great walking city because I never have to worry about the weather. I think it's one of the most walkable cities. It's so pleasant to walk here. But can I, no, I love walking here. But it does not, I guess, suppose. You'll be walking for a long time. Yeah, it's great. I love walking for a long time here. And I've taken many long walks in LA. Most people are talking about when they say walkable. Did you ever notice how you spend hours shopping online, only to pause right before you hit buy now? That tiny hesitation, the one where you wonder if it is trustworthy, can make or break the sale. Now, with AI changing the way consumers discover and compare things, that split-second trust question matters more than ever. That's where PayPal comes in. For more than 25 years, PayPal has been a leader in online payments. And now they're at the forefront of agentic commerce, making it work for businesses, letting them maintain control of their brand and their customer relationships. most still feels familiar and deeply dependable. Build for payment, growth, and agentic. PayPal open. Built for all business. Visit paypalopen.com to get started. 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[15:00] Key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated. for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. In those prescriptions, Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. Okay, you have this vision, this community, etc. How much right now is your business being affected? Or how much, when you're thinking about this, Are you thinking about the headwinds that we talked about with Haze right before it? The fact that there is this very big industry that is on the decline, and how does that make you think about the business, the opportunity set? So I think the commercial real estate industry is having a really tough time because for a long time we've been able to – make money by financially engineering outcomes. and Now the financial conditions are not super great for those financially engineered outcomes. You can't get a cap rate and an interest rate arbitrage and make money. - Yeah. - You can't throw a bunch of people in a room of 140 IQ and do some spreadsheets and figure out how to make money when the interest rates are higher than what you bought to building 400 cap rates. Right. So. Now you actually have to make the product good. I see what you're saying. And I think that's what's really exciting about what we're doing is we're seeing rents increase where we are because I think We've made a really exciting product by investing in talent. There's a lot of new apartment buildings in LA. I don't think many people go around going, wow, that's such a beautiful, cool new apartment building. I think most people are like, oh God, not another one of those boring, generic apartment buildings. So I think the commercial real estate industry, now we have to actually make... good products if you want to make money. Okay, so speaking of making good products, I read one of the things you're doing as part of your developing is... you're building city infrastructure as well. So installing things like crosswalks. What's the process of creating a crosswalk in LA? laughter laughter It's like a Kafka novel. It's just horrible. It sells more. Oh, we got a great email. We got approved for a crosswalk. on Clinton and Western, and it said it'll be built in A few years or more. Wait, what's the constraint? Like, what is the actual holdup? What's your sense of the holdup? There's no really process to get one. You can't. You have to pay for it. they're like, oh yeah, we'll totally approve that for you. but it's gonna cost a million dollars and then we're like just to put a stop like a light and they're like well the engineering the electrical and then you got to go put a vault underneath for us so it's like they're like what are you going to do for us interesting it's funny to think a few years are up it reminds me of when i used to as a young kid like be a vinyl record collector and you'd see the 90 99 cents and up bins and it's like so this is the bin that contained it could you could have a hundred dollar record in the 99 cent and up end to... the home builders, have they become more of the product mindset like do they are they going in the same direction where it's like okay it's not just good enough to have like a master plan community or something. We have to think about the freestanding home as a desirable product rather than just a place to live. Is that a thing yet? Well, you know, most of the home builders that I speak to are infill builders. I do talk to some of the larger builders that the number one thing I've heard from them is their concern. They were really into the As far as building a community, I still think they're sticking with their master plan. Got it. So. It's interesting to hear him say that about the crosswalk, because policy and zoning and regulatory issues are the number one thing I hear from-- [20:00] - From home builders. They all feel right across the... Good times, bad times, that's always their number one issue. I have another basic LA question. Despite what Joe says about this being a walkable city, Lots of people drive, which means you have to have parking if you're doing a commercial development. Everyone needs to get there. And at the same time, I imagine having huge portions of the city as designated parking lots is not that attractive if you're trying to create a neighborhood, or maybe even if you're trying to produce profit. How do you think about the trade-off between parking versus creating a beautiful neighborhood with many tasteful buildings? It's definitely my biggest blind spot because I didn't drive for most of my life living in New York. Huh. So, People who are from LA are always asking me what the parking situation is. And I'm like, why do you keep asking me about the parking? Don't you want to know like what the restaurants are? And they're like, well, where am I going to park? I have a friend from L.A. who will park... And then we're going half a block north and he'll get out, he'll drive his car and then park half a block north. Wow. Yeah. But no, it's a thing. It's a thing, especially if you have kids. Like, you got to... get them in the car seats, get them out of the car seats. So if you can't park, it's like Fairfax is like just horrendous parking. And sometimes it's just not. go to the business if the parking's that bad, but you can make it work with valet Yeah. Let me add something here, too. Sure. You know, I mentioned the ADUs, and they have picked up a little bit. But one of the rules of the ADUs is you don't have to have off-street parking. So what's happening in a lot of the communities where they are building a lot of ADUs is the streets are just packed. So even worse than they were before. So, you know, it's parking until we get real self-driving cars and nobody has to have a car anymore. You know, parking is a huge issue. Koreatown is one of the craziest parking situations, maybe on the planet. Really? Oh yeah. People will, there'll be no spots. My wife lived in Koreatown for a little while. And then there's people who are like just sitting there all day. And then when someone leaves, they're like coordinating how to get all the spots. So career time is pretty rough. But I do think with self-driving cars, parking will become less important. No, I'm fascinated by this question because it's like the car drives you to work and then goes to some centralized lot like – I want to do like a bunch of episodes because it could just end up meaningfully restructuring cities and how they're organized. Let me just interrupt you quickly. It also would change – the way houses look. Because right now in a lot of communities you've got these garages in front and they're really ugly. It would be really nice if those all went away. And my brother pointed out to me one of the biggest changes, of course, to be self-driving would be police interactions go way down. Yes, right. I'm sorry. It also means lower speeding ticket revenue. There are all kinds of not there are going to be no speeding ticket tickets anymore, which is going to hurt. I hope this happens in my life. I have a question. You know, this is this is a question that I probably would have asked very carefully. first off in like 2021 or 2022, then it faded. But I'm curious now. How hard is it to like find construction materials or like HVAC things or all or the electricity? Transformers. Yeah. Like because now we know there's incredible competition for a lot of that stuff. Is that showing up in your development timelines? Transformers So what's happening with that? You got to fight for it. Yeah. What does that actually mean, though? Do you pay a higher price or do you – I don't – Everyone always talks about building the relationship with the supplier. Do you become their best friend? What does fight for it mean? Yeah, you gotta find a guy who knows a guy. Find the guy. And then you gotta buy it in advance, and then store it somewhere. Huh. Yeah, it's like, yeah, it gets weird. So do you have a garage just like full of transformers somewhere? I might. When you were like, that's a very valuable, Tracy's going to add that to her prepper. I probably will. As my fellow prepper, yeah, I got to have a garage full of Transformers. Yeah, do you have it? Long term, people are always going to love living around here. I mean, we can talk about like, yeah, Hollywood, sure, but like, this is like heaven on earth here. This is God's country. Like, in the end, like, it's always going to be great, right? That's my L.A. saying. I think... I think Los Angeles is "has the highest ceiling of any city in the world." - I completely agree. - Yeah. I'm such an LA bull. We have two problems. One is the cost of housing, which we need to address, and the other is water. water in California is a huge issue. Another topic [25:00] talk for a long time, but Bill and Zach, thank you so much for joining us at OddLoss Live. I really appreciate you having a good welcome here. That was our conversation with Bill McBride and Zach Lasry, recorded live in LA. I'm Tracy Allaway. You can follow me at Tracy Allaway. And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armand, Dash O'Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more OddLots content, you should check out our daily newsletter. You can find that at Bloomberg.com forward slash OddLots. And you can chat about all these topics, including real estate, in our Discord, discord.gg slash OddLots. And if you enjoyed this conversation, then please leave a comment or like the video or better yet, subscribe. Thanks for watching and listening. Thank you Our dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. One last thing before you go. You know that feeling when feedback, notes, and data are coming in from every direction? Chat GPT work can make sense of it all. turning scattered inputs into ready-to-review work. With your permission, work in ChatGPT can gather context from apps and files, summarize incoming messages, rebuild decks, and help finalize high-quality documents for your team or clients. Stay in control as you move from a goal to polished work faster with ChatGPT work. 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