Carlson Drops Amazon From Top Picks, Backs Meta and Uber

Carlson将Amazon移出首选股名单，力挺Meta和Uber 长期跑赢市场的表现源于行为自律，即在头条新闻引发的恐慌中买入根基稳固的复合增长型企业，而非追逐信息优势或短期动能。 Joseph Carlson回顾了将其公开投资组合规模扩大至约147万美元的历程，分享了长期的行为自律、重仓优质复合增长股以及低投资组合换手率如何带来了超过50万美元的收益。他解释了从早期现金储蓄到内生性复利增长的转变，并介绍了一款专为在迈向500万美元目标途中统一且透明追踪其账户而构建的定制Chrome扩展程序。在经历一波强劲涨势后将Amazon从顶级推荐名单中移除后，他概述了2026年剩余时间里他最坚信的三只股票：Meta、Uber和S&P Global。本期节目最后以较轻松的内容收尾，涵盖了Duolingo意外披露用户增长数据、一起滑稽的无人机送货意外，以及在他第四个孩子出生后对为人父的喜悦与财务现实的个人感悟。 Joseph Carlson的投资组合规模突破约147万美元，其中逾50万美元完全来自约14只集中持股所产生的累计资本利得。 (0:00) 在Amazon年内上涨16%后，Carlson正式将其从首选股名单中移出，并将Meta、Uber和S&P Global列为他在2026年剩余时间里最有信心的三个投资标的。 (17:59) 尽管Meta年内出现3.8万美元的未实现回撤，但它仍是Carlson最有信心的首选，因为围绕1.4万亿美元青少年成瘾诉讼的耸人听闻的头条报道掩盖了其强劲的底层自由现金流。 (19:15) Duolingo在一次投资者演示中意外泄露了8月份日活跃用户约27%的初步增长数据，迫使其立即进行公开披露，并推动股价上涨5%。 (27:30)

Joseph Carlson outlines how his investment portfolio reached roughly $1.47 million, attributing long-term wealth accumulation to disciplined behavioral temperament and concentrated stakes in durable businesses rather than informational advantages. The Two Phases of Wealth Accumulation (4:13) Carlson divides portfolio scaling into two distinct phases. In the early stages—typically up to the first $100,000 to $200,000—portfolio expansion depends primarily on budgeting, rising earned income, and aggressive, recurring cash deposits. For hands-off investors, he points to broad large-cap growth index funds like SPY or SCHG as effective foundational vehicles. Behavior and Moats as the Real Investor Edge (6:58) Because regulatory filings and financial metrics for mega-cap firms are universally visible, Carlson argues that an informational edge does not exist in public markets. Instead, an investor's true advantage lies in behavioral control and qualitative judgment. He focuses on businesses protected by steep barriers to entry, pricing power, and organic growth, while filtering out firms burdened by heavy debt, speculative research costs, or reliance on acquisitions. Updated Top Conviction Picks for 2026 (17:59) Carlson removed Amazon from his top picks after a 16% year-to-date gain reduced its asymmetric upside, choosing instead to focus on three compounders trading at what he views as unjustified discounts. Meta remains his top pick despite being down nearly $38,000 year-to-date, with Carlson arguing that market alarm over a $1.4 trillion multi-state addiction lawsuit conflates common web mechanics with genuine liabilities while ignoring solid cash flows. His second pick, Uber, trades at roughly 24 times trailing earnings and a 6.3% free cash flow yield; Carlson contends autonomous vehicle integration will expand rather than displace Uber's dispatch network. His third pick, S&P Global, is his fifth-largest holding at around $126,000. Trading around 22 times forward earnings with a 4.5% free cash flow yield, Carlson highlights that its capital-light credit ratings division continues to expand at 14% despite slower growth in market intelligence. Portfolio Tracking and Selective Company Developments (15:02) To maintain public transparency across two distinct M1 Finance accounts totaling nearly $1.5 million without resetting historical performance data, Carlson built a custom Chrome extension to display real-time unified weights and per-episode baselines. Elsewhere in his holdings, Duolingo accidentally disclosed unvalidated internal projections of 27% August daily active user growth, prompting an immediate regulatory disclosure that lifted the stock 5% to $146, though it remains Carlson's largest unrealized loss at roughly $11,500 in the red. Carlson aims to scale his portfolio from $1.5 million to $5.0 million by relying on uninterrupted compounding, noting that daily market swings of $30,000 now outpace cash contributions, though whether out-of-favor picks like Meta and Uber will re-rate upward remains dependent on future market sentiment and legal outcomes.

[1:11] Joseph Carlson: show you what I'm doing with my finances, with my investments, and I wouldn't tell you what to do with yours. [6:58] Joseph Carlson: behavior and judgment [12:07] Joseph Carlson: I don't get excited when my stocks go up. I don't become sad when stocks go down. I don't become complacent or arrogant when my portfolio is doing well... When there's the next panic and everybody's concerned, you'll see me coming out with videos trying to be a little bit more level-headed. [13:50] Joseph Carlson: glorified gambling [17:59] Joseph Carlson: very high-quality compounding machines [19:15] Joseph Carlson: $1.4 Trillion: Meta on Trial [27:30] Joseph Carlson: oopsies [29:14] Joseph Carlson: like 90% pool and hot tub [30:52] Joseph Carlson: I love my children more than anything and I don't expect them to do anything to ever pay me back ever. I would love them and serve them for the rest of their lives.

[0:00] Welcome everyone. Today on the Joseph [0:01] Carlson show, I have a portfolio of [0:03] around $1.47 [0:05] million. And of that, over $500,000 of [0:09] it are gains. Now, how did this happen? [0:12] How did I get to this point where we [0:13] have over half a million dollars in [0:15] gains? Well, I plan on sharing the [0:17] story, going over the biggest things to [0:19] growing a portfolio, what I believe are [0:21] the best lessons in doing so, and how [0:23] you can get yourself in a future where [0:25] you also have a million-doll portfolio. [0:28] So, we'll be going over all of that in [0:29] today's episode. Plus, we're going to be [0:31] looking at three companies that are my [0:33] top picks for the remainder of 2026. At [0:36] the beginning of the year, it was Amazon [0:37] and Meta, and I'll be updating that. [0:39] We're making an adjustment. Now, we have [0:41] three top picks. We also had news that [0:43] Dualingo had a little whoopsies. They [0:45] showed their August DAU projections. So, [0:48] I'll be going over that. And then, [0:49] finally, in the fail of the week, we [0:51] have a video here of Amazon delivering a [0:53] package straight into someone's backyard [0:55] pool. I'll be reacting to this entire [0:57] video later. And then finally, I have [0:59] another announcement to add. We had [1:00] another member join the Carlson family [1:03] in just the past day. So, we now have [1:05] four kids. And I'll be sharing just a [1:07] couple of thoughts on raising children [1:09] in today's crazy world. Now, let's go [1:11] ahead and get started. Now, we start [1:12] things off by looking at how I got to [1:14] the point of getting $500,000 plus in [1:17] gains on a $1.4 million portfolio. We're [1:20] going to be going over the whole story [1:21] of how this happened and my advice for [1:24] anybody that's building their portfolio [1:25] today. So, we have a lot to go over, but [1:28] I first want to just back up and give [1:30] you an idea of the story of how this all [1:32] started. Back in 2019, I started a [1:35] YouTube channel. The premise of the [1:36] YouTube channel was very simple. It was [1:39] the idea that I would show you what I'm [1:41] doing with my finances, with my [1:42] investments, and I wouldn't tell you [1:44] what to do with yours. That is the exact [1:46] opposite of most of financial media. [1:49] Most of financial media tells you and [1:51] pitches you on what to do with your [1:53] finances while not showing you what [1:55] they're doing with theirs. And I wanted [1:57] just the opposite. I wanted to be [1:58] transparent. I wanted to be very [2:00] forthcoming with everything that I'm [2:02] buying, everything that I'm selling and [2:04] my thoughts and logic behind my [2:06] decisions so that viewers could analyze [2:09] them and either agree or disagree with [2:11] my thoughts and they could also see my [2:13] actions of what I'm buying and what I'm [2:15] selling very transparently. So, that was [2:17] the premise of the channel. I started [2:19] off in early 2019. I uploaded a video [2:22] that showed my concentrated portfolio [2:24] with many OG companies of stocks that I [2:27] was very excited about. Now, I didn't [2:29] start investing when I started YouTube. [2:32] I started investing a couple years [2:33] beforehand. About 2016, I really started [2:37] a portfolio. So, I've been buying these [2:39] companies and doing research and [2:40] analysis on stocks for years prior to [2:42] ever starting YouTube. I loved it. I [2:45] love researching companies. I love [2:47] breaking them down and doing analysis. I [2:49] am obsessed with it. So, YouTube was no [2:52] act. I wasn't putting on some different [2:54] persona when I started YouTube. All [2:56] YouTube was was a window into what I'm [2:58] already doing. And that's how the show [3:01] began. I started tracking my portfolio, [3:04] tracking my trades, showing everything [3:06] and the reasons that I think certain [3:07] companies will evolve in certain ways. [3:10] At [snorts] the beginning, I focused [3:12] heavily on Apple. Back in 2019, I made a [3:15] strong case in many videos about how [3:17] Apple's transforming from a hardware [3:19] seller to a software seller. And that [3:21] transition happened. Apple did really [3:23] well and more and more people started [3:25] viewing the channel. I I started getting [3:27] more and more followers and it grew [3:29] rapidly over just the the first year. We [3:31] gained 100,000 subscribers. Uh and the [3:33] main channel has now reached over half a [3:35] million subscribers. The after [snorts] [3:36] hours channel, which you're watching [3:38] today, is a little bit of a different [3:39] format, but it's the same stuff. And [3:41] this one's now at a quarter million [3:43] subscribers as well and continues to [3:45] grow. So that's basically been the heart [3:46] of my channel, showing my journey of [3:49] building investments, my thoughts and [3:50] analysis over time. And with that, I've [3:52] had some market commentary and news [3:55] commentary as well. But I've continued [3:57] to show my portfolio every single week [3:59] for now over 6 years. Not a week has [4:02] gone by without me displaying my [4:04] portfolio and the gains or losses or the [4:07] progress or the declines in it. I've [4:09] done that up until now for many years [4:11] and I plan to in the future. I'm going [4:13] to be showing you how I grow this [4:15] portfolio from 1.4 million or 1 1.5 up [4:19] to 5 million by having attractive [4:21] returns with different companies by [4:23] having compounding all of these hundreds [4:25] of thousands of dollars in gains. This [4:27] is what is growing this portfolio [4:29] primarily. It's not primarily deposits [4:31] at this point. But as my portfolio is [4:33] well on its way, it's snowballing. It's [4:35] compounding. I think it's important to [4:37] just do a refresher of how you start out [4:40] and how you get to the point where you [4:42] have this type of compounding. There's a [4:44] couple different options to go. One of [4:45] them that I think is worth mentioning is [4:47] ETFs. If you want a simple way to grow [4:49] wealth, start buying ETFs. And I [4:52] specifically like growth ETFs. I think [4:54] they're the best. If I was to never have [4:57] a portfolio like this, if I was to never [4:59] do individual investing, my next thing [5:01] that I'd be buying is SPY or SCHG. These [5:06] are great large cap growth ETFs that [5:08] you'll have very good performance and [5:10] you've had very good performance over [5:12] long periods of time. So there's ways to [5:14] do this without ever even even bringing [5:17] in individual stocks. If that's not your [5:18] thing and you don't like analysis, you [5:20] don't like looking at individual stocks, [5:21] there's ways to do it without doing [5:23] that. [snorts] But I love analysis. I [5:25] love investing in individual stocks. And [5:27] I think that most investors, even if you [5:30] have a big ETF holding, you can also [5:32] have some individual stocks because it [5:34] gets you really in the mindset of a [5:36] business owner. It gets you thinking [5:38] about which companies will really do [5:40] well over the next 10 years and you have [5:42] huge opportunities to outperform. In any [5:45] case, you can have an all ETF portfolio [5:47] or you can have an all individual stock [5:49] portfolio or you can do a hybrid [5:51] approach, which I think is the best for [5:52] most people. And when you're looking at [5:54] building your portfolio, there's a few [5:56] things that really help out, especially [5:58] early on. First of all, at the very [6:00] early stages, the most important thing [6:01] is simply budgeting and depositing money [6:03] on a frequent basis. You have to get [6:05] that down. Continually deposit money as [6:08] much as you can. Make budgeting a [6:10] priority. Try to get raises at your job, [6:12] which you can put the additional cash [6:13] flow into your portfolio. Exercise that [6:16] mental muscle of constantly building [6:18] your portfolio. Now, as it gets past the [6:20] point of $100,000 and then $200,000, it [6:24] becomes increasingly important to have [6:26] attractive gains. You can no longer just [6:28] rely on deposits. Once you get to the [6:30] point where you have millions of dollars [6:31] in a portfolio, deposits aren't going to [6:34] lift it. Like, I I I can throw $20,000 [6:36] in this and it moves up $20,000. That's [6:38] just not enough. In a single day, this [6:41] portfolio will trade around $30,000. So [6:44] it becomes far more important to have [6:45] attractive gains the bigger and bigger [6:48] your portfolio is. But at the early [6:50] stages, get deposits down, get that ball [6:52] rolling. Once you get a little bit of [6:55] the ball rolling, you get the portfolio [6:57] bigger, that's where I think you get [6:58] into a different category. And this is [7:00] where having an edge matters. The reason [7:02] that I've been able to make attractive [7:04] returns on the huge majority of [7:05] companies that I invest in is [7:07] specifically because I work in areas [7:09] that I have an edge. meaning I have an [7:11] advantage over the average investor. [7:14] With Google, I have an advantage over [7:16] the average investor. The same thing [7:18] with Mastercard, the same thing with [7:19] Amazon, the same thing I believe with [7:21] Meta. That's not proven here, but I [7:23] think it will be proven over time. And [7:25] with ASML, with Netflix, with Microsoft, [7:29] with Costco, with Texas Roadhouse, and [7:30] so on. Now, you may say, Joseph, these [7:33] are very big, publicly known companies [7:35] where everybody has the same [7:36] information. So, how do you have an edge [7:39] over everyone else? And while it's true [7:42] I have the same information, generally [7:44] speaking, as anyone else, the edge does [7:47] not come from just being presented the [7:49] same information. The edge comes from [7:51] behavior and judgment. Two investors can [7:54] look at the same information and one [7:57] that's emotional and doesn't have good [7:59] judgment can interpret it in a much [8:01] worse way than someone that is [8:02] unemotional, disciplined, and has good [8:05] investing analysis and judgment. That is [8:07] where the edge comes in. So people that [8:10] say you can't possibly have an edge in [8:12] Google because everybody knows [8:14] everything about Google, that's not [8:16] accurate. My edge in Google is my [8:19] behavior, analysis, and judgment and [8:21] interpretation of the data. And this is [8:23] where we get into something that I wrote [8:25] a couple years ago. I want to go over [8:27] this. This is what is my edge? I wrote [8:30] this in August of 2023, but it has [8:32] really good lessons which I believe are [8:34] still applicable today. My primary focus [8:36] when I'm doing analysis on any company [8:38] is assessing the long-term durable [8:41] competitive advantages of the business. [8:43] A business needs to have this before [8:45] even considering the growth rates. [8:48] Growth rates don't matter if the company [8:50] can't maintain any type of advantage. [8:53] Otherwise, you have a company that's [8:54] doing well for only a short period of [8:56] time. Does the business have high [8:58] barriers to entry? Does it have the [9:00] majority market share? Is its products [9:03] and brand name deeply entrenched? Does [9:05] it sit on top of the food chain? How [9:07] difficult would it be for someone else [9:09] to take market share? Does the business [9:11] require a lot of PhDs with high R&D [9:13] budgets to grow? Does this business grow [9:16] only by acquisitions? Does the business [9:18] have a lot of leverage? Will this [9:20] business survive a bad recession? These [9:22] are the type of questions you ask when [9:24] you're looking at durability. Low-risk [9:26] businesses are ones that have dominant [9:28] market positions, high barriers to [9:30] entry, deeply entrenched brand names and [9:32] distribution, cashrich balance sheets, [9:34] organic revenue growth through volume [9:36] pricing, and no reliance on high risk [9:39] R&D. [9:41] So basically, I'm looking for companies [9:43] that are incredibly strong, ones that [9:45] have good solid reason to continue being [9:48] stronger in the future. A lot of these [9:50] are well- capitalized large companies. [9:53] So there's a a basket of companies that [9:55] are very strong and they get [9:56] economically more powerful through their [9:58] huge network effects. The other thing is [10:00] simply having a concentrated portfolio [10:02] does allow you a higher chance of [10:03] outperforming. Now concentration doesn't [10:06] mean every risk factor has to be [10:08] concentrated. So, I'm not buying 8 to 15 [10:11] banks that all have the same exact risk [10:13] factors. I'm not buying 8 to 15 [10:15] streaming services or 8 to 15 [10:18] restaurants. I'm buying companies in all [10:20] different categories. So, even though my [10:22] portfolio is concentrated, it has all [10:24] different risk factors. So, when you [10:26] look at my companies, you'll notice [10:28] this. They're very they're very [10:30] diversified in their risk factors. We [10:32] have Google and Meta, which are in [10:34] advertising, but they're actually [10:36] different parts of advertising. We have [10:38] Mastercard, payment processing. We have [10:40] S&P Global and Moody's which are in [10:42] credit rating. We have ASML which is in [10:45] lithography and semi-production. We have [10:48] Netflix, a streaming service. We have uh [10:50] corporate software company. We have [10:52] Costco, a restaurant. We have a consumer [10:56] learning app. And then we have Door Dash [10:58] and Uber, which is mobility and [10:59] delivery. Uh a diversified network of [11:02] these. There are some similar risk [11:04] factors, but overall this is a very [11:06] diversified portfolio if you look at [11:08] risk factors alone. It's concentrated [11:10] though in the number of holdings which [11:12] allows it to outperform. The other thing [11:13] that I point out is simply holding [11:15] periods. Holding a company for a long [11:17] period of time is difficult because [11:18] there's so many opportunities to scare [11:20] you out of every company. My average [11:22] holding period is is typically over five [11:24] years. So even though there's a list of [11:26] companies that I've sold, I've sold uh [11:28] Salesforce and into it and Equifax. [11:31] That's three companies that I've sold. [11:32] While there's companies that I've held [11:34] for five plus, six plus years easily. [11:37] Ones like Texas Roadhouse and Costco, [11:39] uh, Microsoft, Google, all of these have [11:42] been multi- multi-year holdings, and [11:45] that's where I really get the most [11:46] gains. So, even though I don't follow [11:48] this perfectly, there's going to be time [11:49] periods where I sell holdings earlier [11:51] than I wish I'd have to, overall, my [11:54] goal is to have these companies that [11:55] compound, and they do so for long [11:57] periods of time, and I want to have low [11:59] turnover. that lowers my tax burden. It [12:02] leads to better results. And my [12:04] analysis, for the most part, is aimed at [12:06] having very long-term positions. If you [12:08] remain patient, unemotional, and [12:10] disciplined, you'll have much better [12:12] results. I try to be patient, [12:15] unemotional, and disciplined in my [12:16] approach in investing. Hopefully, you [12:17] see that through my content, but that's [12:19] the goal. This means I don't get excited [12:22] when my stocks go up. I don't become sad [12:24] when stocks go down. I don't become [12:26] complacent or arrogant when my portfolio [12:28] is doing well. Now, does that mean that [12:31] you can ever be happy when your [12:32] portfolio is doing well? No, that's not [12:34] what I'm talking about. So, I'll smile. [12:36] I'll I'll be happy. I'll uh celebrate if [12:38] my portfolio is having a great month. [12:40] But that does not mean that I all of a [12:42] sudden think that every stock is great, [12:45] that I become super complacent and that [12:48] I become arrogant and believe I can do [12:49] no wrong with my picks. And to the [12:51] contrary, you'll notice that when stocks [12:53] go down, when there's tariff wars, when [12:56] there's an Iran conflict, when there's [12:58] COVID, I've always been on the side of [13:00] being far less reactive. I don't come [13:02] out with videos saying you should panic [13:03] and sell everything. I didn't do that [13:05] during CO. I held every single position. [13:07] I continued to buy in dramatically [13:09] during the dip. I did it with the tariff [13:11] pressure when everybody was scared about [13:13] that. Uh the same thing with the Iran [13:15] conflicts and oil prices. and I'll do it [13:17] again in the next one because remaining [13:19] unemotional, remaining disciplined [13:22] typically leads to much better results [13:24] and it has throughout my investing [13:26] history. A lot of these stocks and the [13:28] way that they've performed as a result [13:29] of being able to buy them during those [13:31] time periods of peak panic. So that's a [13:34] a thing to exercise as an investor. You [13:36] can have an edge in your behavior. Just [13:38] don't follow the crowd and become so [13:40] gloomy when everyone else is gloomy. And [13:42] you'll see me do that on this channel. [13:44] When there's the next panic and [13:46] everybody's concerned, you'll see me [13:47] coming out with videos trying to be a [13:49] little bit more level-headed. [13:50] Speculation is when you invest in [13:52] something and you have really no clue [13:54] how it's going to turn out. You might [13:56] have a couple thoughts on it, but it's [13:58] not predictable. The whole situation [13:59] isn't predictable. The more short-term [14:01] you move, the more speculative your [14:03] behavior will come. When you're focused [14:05] primarily on just short-term catalysts, [14:07] upgrades, and downgrades, and leverage [14:10] tools to trade stocks, that in a lot of [14:13] cases is glorified gambling. Most [14:15] investors use these tactics, and they [14:17] have subpar returns. If you are [14:18] speculating, you should be doing so with [14:20] a very small portion of your portfolio. [14:22] You'll have superior long-term success [14:24] by looking at situations that have very [14:26] predictable outcomes. Now, there is no [14:28] guarantees. So, I invest in more than [14:30] one company, but I do so with the [14:32] thought that each company has a 90% plus [14:35] chance of being a successful investment. [14:37] When you do that with a basket of 14 [14:38] companies, all of them having a 90% [14:41] chance of success, you have an overall [14:43] very attractive return. So, those are [14:44] some real things that you can do in your [14:46] investing, whether or not you're [14:47] investing in ETFs or individual [14:49] companies or a mix, that will help out [14:51] your returns. Getting better control [14:53] over your behavior, decision-making, and [14:55] analysis will ultimately lead to a much [14:57] better outcome. Now, in terms of my show [15:00] going forward and what I plan on doing [15:02] to try to improve transparency and to [15:05] show you the journey along the way, I [15:06] also have made a couple small changes. [15:08] One of them is that when I'm showing my [15:10] portfolio, usually you'll see this [15:11] screen. This is the M1 Finance uh [15:14] brokerage, and I really like it. I'm [15:16] still using it. Nothing's really [15:17] changing here. But I show you this [15:19] screen. I show you the gains of this [15:20] portfolio, and this is the passive [15:22] income portfolio. But to show this, I [15:24] think it's it's a little bit hard to [15:25] see. I have to zoom way in. I have to [15:27] scroll down these companies and the [15:29] biggest problem with showing this view [15:30] is I have to combine it with another [15:32] portfolio that I have. That was the [15:34] passive income portfolio. And then I [15:35] have another portfolio called the story [15:37] fund. The story fund is smaller. It's [15:39] only $450,000, $150,000 in gains, but I [15:43] have a list of companies here. Some of [15:45] them are different and some of them are [15:47] the same. Now, I've talked with M1 [15:49] Finance about combining these two [15:50] portfolios to have one unified view. and [15:53] we looked at the technicalities and it's [15:55] really far more difficult than it looks. [15:57] If we combined them, I'd lose a [15:58] tremendous amount of historical data [16:01] including a lot of gains, a lot of [16:03] realized gains, dividends paid, all that [16:05] type of stuff would be really messy [16:07] combining these two portfolios. So [16:09] rather than do that, I decided to keep [16:11] them separate. So all the data still [16:13] exists, it's all calculated correctly. [16:15] And then I simply made a Chrome [16:16] extension, a Chrome extension that [16:19] combines it all together visually. This [16:21] is that Chrome extension. So, it's [16:22] actually in the M1 Finance dashboard. It [16:24] looks at both portfolios and visually [16:26] combines them together into a single [16:29] portfolio. And that's what you see here. [16:30] This is the total combined portfolio. [16:33] So, when you look at this, this is my [16:34] exact overall portfolio that's [16:36] mathematically perfect. And all the data [16:38] comes exactly from the brokerage. In [16:40] fact, you'll see as I'm looking at this [16:42] that some of these numbers will just be [16:44] updating. That's because it's literally [16:45] plugged in to the exact numbers that the [16:48] brokerage is providing. But this gives [16:49] you an easier way to see my overall [16:51] portfolio, all my positions in order [16:53] from biggest to smallest, as well as my [16:56] gains or losses on each position, the [16:58] total size, and the waiting of each [17:00] position. So hopefully this makes it [17:02] easier to follow week by week and video [17:04] by video what I'm doing. Another thing I [17:06] added was the ability to track the gain [17:08] or loss since the last video. So for [17:11] example, we have a video today. I can go [17:14] baseline and set a baseline. And now [17:16] this will track exactly what happens to [17:18] my portfolio since August 20th. You can [17:22] see it just went up $73 in just the past [17:24] couple seconds. And you it'll trade [17:26] around. It will go into the red. It will [17:27] go into the green. But this will save [17:29] the baseline. And then the next time we [17:31] do an update and I show you my [17:32] portfolio, I can show you since the last [17:34] episode how much it's gone up or down. [17:37] The goal here is to increase continuity. [17:38] So you can actually see the progress in [17:40] dollar amount every single video as we [17:43] go along this journey. So, you're going [17:44] to see the continuity. You're going to [17:46] see the growth of the portfolio. You'll [17:47] see every single trade that I do, the [17:49] changes that I make, my analysis on [17:51] these stocks as well. And if you want to [17:53] make sure to follow this journey of me [17:55] growing this from 1.5 million up to 5 [17:58] million, just make sure you subscribe to [17:59] the channel. I'll show the whole thing [18:01] here as transparent as possible. Now, [18:03] regarding how I plan on growing this, a [18:05] lot of my strategy relies on buying [18:07] incredibly good companies. I call them [18:09] very highquality compounding machines [18:11] and buying them specifically when [18:13] opportunity presents when other [18:15] investors are concerned about them with [18:17] concerns that I believe are [18:18] misunderstood or just invalid. One of [18:21] the examples of this was buying the [18:22] Google dip during the Chat GPT scare. [18:25] Google was at an incredibly attractive [18:27] valuation just a couple years ago [18:29] because people were concerned about [18:30] Chrome being sold off and Chat GPT [18:33] eating away at their market share. The [18:35] data proved that that wasn't happening [18:36] and the stock was at a discount and [18:38] that's when I piled in a lot of money. [18:40] That's why I have a very attractive [18:41] return in a short amount of time. And [18:43] this is a strategy that I like to [18:44] repeat. Now, my top two picks entering [18:47] into 2026 was Amazon and Meta. Those are [18:51] the two. And I'm removing Amazon from a [18:53] top pick in 2026. The reason why is [18:56] because when I look at Amazon today, [18:58] it's already been successful. It's in [19:00] the green by 16% this year. it's [19:03] outperformed the market. So, I'm no [19:05] longer calling Amazon a top pick because [19:07] it's already done so well. It's already [19:08] been a successful holding and I believe [19:10] that there's other ones that will do [19:11] well the remainder of this year. The [19:13] other top pick was Meta and I still have [19:16] Meta as a top pick in 2026, but this one [19:19] has not gone my way. I am down a [19:21] staggering 37 almost $38,000 in Meta and [19:25] I've only owned the stock in 2026. So, [19:29] this has been a terrible holding, a [19:30] terrible position, a a total devastating [19:32] loss, right? I don't think so. It hasn't [19:35] gone my way so far. It's definitely [19:37] detracted from my returns this year, but [19:39] I don't view this as a big problem [19:42] because the problem comes in when [19:43] there's fundamental deterioration with [19:45] the company and I don't see that with [19:46] Meta. Let's go ahead and take a look at [19:48] why Meta stock is down so much. This is [19:50] from Fortune. They say Meta faces a $1.4 [19:53] 4 trillion market threat that could mean [19:56] turning in the keys and walking away. [19:58] Meta is facing a $1.4 trillion lawsuit. [20:02] Here's the type of videos being blasted [20:04] out to the public. This is what a lot of [20:06] investors are seeing on CNBC or Fox [20:08] News. Let's go ahead and just play a [20:09] clip of this. [20:10] >> That could set a precedent for thousands [20:12] of other cases like it. A group of [20:15] states is suing the company for $1.4 [20:18] trillion. Those plaintiffs claim it [20:22] designed its [20:23] >> they have like a 100 foot wide TV and on [20:27] the TV it literally says $1.4 trillion. [20:29] Meta on trial. This is what's going on. [20:33] It's it's it's the worst situation. Meta [20:35] would have to pay $1.4 trillion. That's [20:37] more than the market cap of the company. [20:40] And this is the type of thing people are [20:42] seeing. Now, what do you think happens [20:43] to investor sentiment when this type of [20:45] thing is being blasted across the [20:47] television to millions of people? [20:49] Obviously, people are going to be [20:51] concerned about this stock. This is as [20:53] bad as it gets. They're comparing Meta [20:55] to big tobacco, to cigarettes. [20:57] Cigarettes directly cause lung cancer [20:59] and hearing loss. And they're comparing [21:01] Meta to cigarettes. Meta is being sued [21:03] primarily for making their services too [21:05] addictive. And what the prosecutors site [21:08] primarily for saying that Meta had made [21:10] the service too addictive is infinite [21:12] scroll, where you go to the bottom of a [21:14] page and it just continues to load [21:15] indefinitely forever. Now, infinite [21:18] scroll is not something that Meta [21:19] invented. It existed years prior to [21:21] Meta. It was widely used online. Meta [21:24] just implemented it as a standard in [21:25] their app like everyone else. Every app [21:27] in the world does infinite scroll. [21:29] Almost every website does it as well. [21:31] This is a widely used common feature [21:33] throughout all of society before Meta [21:36] even really existed and Facebook caught [21:38] market share. The other feature that's [21:40] most widely cited for being [21:41] intentionally destructive and addictive [21:43] is autoplaying videos, which is the same [21:46] way that cable television and [21:48] over-the-air TV has functioned for [21:49] literally 50 years. You turn on a [21:51] television, it continues playing until [21:53] you turn it off. Autoplay is not some [21:56] devious invention by Meta either. Now, [21:58] Meta is also being accused of concealing [22:01] how bad their product was for people. [22:04] The prosecutors are arguing that Meta [22:06] did an internal study, an internal [22:08] experiment where they found that people [22:10] that quit Meta, especially teenagers, [22:12] had better emotional outcomes and less [22:14] anxiety. That was one experiment that [22:16] they found. Meta said that they didn't [22:19] have evidence that using Facebook caused [22:21] emotional anxiety. And prosecutors point [22:23] to that one study to say yes, they did. [22:25] They had that experiment. This study was [22:27] not some long-term peer-reviewed study. [22:29] Meta also has a number of studies [22:31] showing that their product makes people [22:32] happier. Many of them self-report that [22:34] they have better social experiences, [22:36] better social circles, that they enjoy [22:38] their time using Meta products. They [22:40] found a number of these studies saying [22:42] uh people like it more. And the [22:43] prosecutors, of course, never mentioned [22:45] those studies. They only mentioned the [22:46] one that made them look bad. So, a lot [22:48] of people looking at the news are seeing [22:50] a very cherrypicked view without Meta [22:52] there to defend themselves in all these [22:54] cases. But Meta does have a good [22:56] defense. The features that they [22:58] implemented are widely implemented [22:59] across different companies. The things [23:01] are being accused of concealing are not [23:04] conclusive evidence of anything. And [23:06] even the studies that they cite where [23:08] they had good outcomes for people, they [23:10] also don't believe are conclusive [23:11] evidence as well. They're just anecdotal [23:13] studies that they run all the time. So I [23:16] believe when you look at the case of [23:17] Meta, it's actually much stronger than [23:19] what a lot of people think. Meta has [23:22] very valid defenses for a lot of things [23:24] that they're arguing and you'll see that [23:25] in court. Nobody wants to mention it and [23:28] I'm the big bad guy for mentioning a big [23:30] company's defense, but they do have a [23:32] very solid defense. The reason that I [23:34] have Meta as a number one stock pick is [23:36] because I have a sense for when [23:38] sentiment is incredibly low on a [23:39] company, when the stock price is [23:41] depressed and the fundamentals are good. [23:43] In Meta, all of these things arrive. And [23:45] if the outcome is anywhere better than [23:47] investors are pricing in or expecting, [23:49] then this stock will do well. Now, my [23:51] second top pick for 2026 is Uber. This [23:54] has moved firmly into my second place [23:56] pick, and I want to go over a couple [23:57] reasons why. First is simple valuation. [23:59] Uber trades at a 24 PE, 17 times PE of [24:03] 2027's earnings, and it trades at a 6.3% [24:06] free cash flow yield, 5% [snorts] after [24:08] you factor in stockbased comp. And there [24:10] is some insurance float that factors in [24:12] as well, but it's still at a very high [24:14] healthy free cash flow yield. And while [24:16] it's at that nice healthy yield, Uber is [24:18] also growing very quick. Look at these [24:20] fundamentals. Everything is up and to [24:21] the right. The gross bookings, the Uber [24:23] one members, which is becoming an [24:25] increasingly important membership for [24:27] the company. You have the free cash [24:29] flows, huge amounts of cash flows every [24:31] single quarter now. And there's a lot of [24:33] exciting things happening for this [24:34] company. The biggest risk to it and the [24:36] reason that sentiment is low is because [24:38] of Whimo and other AVs that pose a [24:40] threat to Uber's core business. I [24:42] believe [snorts] the threat is [24:43] overstated. I think that will be proven [24:45] over time. And Uber continues to grow in [24:48] very interesting ways. For example, Uber [24:49] just did a video showing the new [24:51] partnership with Zipline, which is drone [24:53] delivery. [24:54] >> More people are using it. All of [24:55] e-commerce is kind of moving there. We [24:58] think that 10 to 15 minute delivery [25:00] time. [25:00] >> Uber's planning on getting to the point [25:02] where they're doing a million drone [25:03] deliveries per day. So, they have big [25:05] ambitions with drone delivery. And this [25:07] is another expansion of this business. [25:09] Uber is a company that has a very strong [25:11] bare case, but the network is massive. [25:13] The team on it is very forward-looking. [25:15] They're moving fast to consolidate and [25:17] aggregate all the demand that comes [25:19] along with ride sharing. And there's [25:21] also big updates on Uber with AVs. They [25:24] continue to implement them in their [25:25] fleet. And I believe lots of AV partners [25:27] will aggregate in Uber's network. So [25:29] I've moved Uber as my second top pick [25:31] for 2026. Now I have Uber towards the [25:34] bottom of the portfolio. It was a split [25:36] buy between Uber and Door Dash. Door [25:38] Dash has raced up 28% since buying it. [25:40] So I'm not putting that as a top pick. [25:41] It's it's already gone up quite a bit. [25:43] We have Uber now working its way into [25:44] the green. I bought this one on a good [25:46] dip, but I do have it as a $25,000 [25:48] position, and my trading on this will be [25:51] pretty simple. My third top pick for the [25:53] remainder of 2026 is S&P Global. This is [25:56] also one in the portfolio. I have it [25:58] right here. It's position number five [26:00] currently, $126,000 invested, and it's [26:03] only up $18,500. So, we're in the green [26:06] by 20% give or take. But, this has not [26:09] been some incredible performer. I don't [26:11] believe the S&P Global is getting the [26:13] credit it deserves. When I look at this [26:14] company, first of all, again, the [26:16] valuation of it is very undemanding. [26:18] We're looking at a company here trading [26:19] at a 22 Ford PE ratio. That's a low [26:22] historically for S&P Global and a 4 and [26:24] a.5% free cash flow yield for a company [26:26] that is incredibly efficient. They have [26:28] almost no stock-based compensation, no [26:30] capital expenditures, there's not much [26:32] marketing expense. Overall, this is a [26:35] very efficient company at an attractive [26:37] valuation. Investors are concerned about [26:39] the market intelligence business. We [26:41] look at market intelligence. It's this [26:43] big revenue line here, but it continues [26:45] to grow in the mid single digits, five, [26:47] six% year-over-year. It's not a super [26:50] fast growing portion of the business, [26:51] but it's also not the most important [26:53] portion. The ratings is the most [26:55] important portion, and that's growing [26:57] quickly at 14%. This is also what makes [27:00] up the highest margins, the biggest [27:02] operating profits of the business. The [27:04] market intelligence is just not as [27:06] important. It's a nice add-on, but [27:08] investors are putting too much weight [27:09] into that revenue stream. The ratings [27:12] business will continue to do [27:13] exceptionally well, and I believe this [27:15] stock will make a full recovery this [27:17] year. So, in my portfolio, I've been [27:18] building those three positions. I've [27:20] been buying Uber. I've been buying Meta. [27:22] I've been buying S&P Global. These are [27:24] companies that I think are fantastic. [27:26] And when they eventually recover, which [27:28] I expect they will, it'll bump up the [27:30] total gain of this portfolio much [27:31] higher. Now, moving on, we get to some [27:33] news. The first story is that Dualingo [27:35] apparently made an oopsies. They showed [27:38] their August DAU growth, which is their [27:40] daily active user growth year-over-year, [27:42] and they accidentally revealed this [27:44] number during some type of presentation. [27:47] So, basically, in situations like this [27:49] where Dualingo accidentally shows [27:50] investor related insider information [27:53] like their growth or a KPI growth, [27:55] especially as one as important as DAU [27:57] growth, what they need to do is make [27:59] sure it's not just one party that knows [28:01] it. They need to make sure everyone [28:02] knows it. So once they accidentally [28:04] showed this to this small group of [28:06] investors, they made sure immediately to [28:08] tell everyone else because if you only [28:11] have one group of investors knowing this [28:12] information, of course, it's a bit like [28:14] insider trading. So they don't want to [28:16] have that happen. They are forced [28:17] legally to disclose it to the entire [28:19] world. Now, Duelingo disclosed the [28:22] number, but they also did so with a lot [28:24] of caveats and a lot of disclaimers. [28:26] They say that it is unvalidated. It is [28:29] preliminary internal data showing [28:31] investors the indicated and estimated [28:34] DAU growth of 27%. Similar estimated [28:37] growth rates were displayed for prior [28:38] days in August. But these figures have [28:40] not completed review or validation. The [28:43] company cautioned that this should not [28:44] be indicative of their Q3 results. So [28:47] they're saying don't believe that this [28:48] is going to be like the growth rate for [28:50] next quarter. That's not what this is [28:51] saying. Now this did cause the stock to [28:53] jump a little bit. Duelingo was up 5% on [28:56] the day. So it's now up to $146 per [28:59] share. When I look at my position in [29:00] Dolingo, it's now a $35,000 position [29:03] with 11,500 in the red. So, it's working [29:07] its way back. Overall, it's it's moving [29:09] more close to the green, but this is [29:11] still one of the big losers in the [29:13] portfolio. Now, moving on, we get to [29:14] today's fail of the week. In this case, [29:16] it is Amazon drone delivery. We have a [29:19] video here. Now, this is a video taken [29:20] by a lady in Texas that was excited to [29:22] have Amazon drone delivery, but she [29:25] became disappointed in where Amazon [29:26] chose to drop off the product. [29:41] >> Okay, [29:44] it dropped it right in her hot tub. the [29:47] hot tub portion of her pool there. So, [29:49] her backyard's like, it looks like it's [29:51] 90% uh pool and hot tub. It's just 90% [29:54] water. There's some cement around the [29:55] area, but this drone comes in, which is [29:57] actually a big drone. These things are [30:00] cool. Like, this is a real drone [30:01] dropping off a product there, and it [30:03] drops it right off in the middle of the [30:05] hot tub. Now, a couple thoughts about [30:07] this. First of all, this is like the [30:09] most first world problem in the world. [30:11] Yeah, this drone that that delivered a [30:13] package to me, which is is like the [30:14] future, right? We're living in the [30:16] future. It delivered a package. It [30:18] accidentally dropped it off in my hot [30:19] tub because I have a massive hot tub and [30:21] pool. My life is so difficult. I'm going [30:23] to complain about this. There's some [30:25] people, it doesn't matter how good their [30:27] life is. They're always going to find [30:28] reasons to complain. Another thing, as [30:31] many people here pointed out, Amazon [30:34] literally has an app that gives you the [30:35] precise location that you can select of [30:38] where the drone will drop it off. So, [30:40] this lady selected her hot tub or her [30:43] patio to have it dropped off and then [30:45] was upset that the drone went and [30:46] dropped it off there. So, this is also [30:48] likely self-inflicted. I personally [30:50] can't wait until we get the option of [30:51] drone delivery. Now, finally, I wanted [30:53] to mention one other thing. We had a big [30:55] change in the Carlson household. We [30:57] welcomed the fourth member, new family [30:59] member, which was born in just the past [31:01] day. So, he's still very new. It's his [31:03] first day here. Now, the reason that I [31:05] posted about this, I actually shared one [31:07] photo, which I don't share a lot of [31:08] photos of my family, my wife, or my kids [31:10] for obvious reasons, but I wanted to [31:12] share one uh this one I I thought was a [31:15] good one to share because because I [31:16] think there's some important things [31:18] going on. One of them is that there's a [31:20] big urge, it seems like, in society to [31:22] pressure people into not having kids, [31:24] making it feel unattainable, [31:26] unreachable, like you need to be [31:28] perfectly financially stable and have [31:30] everything perfect before you can even [31:31] think about having a kid. So, I'm not [31:33] going to lecture anyone on what to do [31:34] with your family. You all get to decide. [31:36] But I think it's important to share a [31:37] different perspective than the one [31:38] that's shared online continually by the [31:40] news. Um, first of all, having kids is [31:43] awesome. It is the coolest thing I think [31:44] you can do on planet Earth. They are the [31:46] funnest things, the best things. Uh, it [31:49] brings out the best in people. If you [31:52] have children, you'll have a love for [31:53] them. If you're a normal parent, you [31:55] will feel a love so immense that it is [31:58] completely unmatched. I believe it's the [31:59] most pure love that you can feel as a [32:01] human. I would argue even more than your [32:04] love for your spouse because your love [32:06] for your spouse could be pretty big. [32:08] That could be very big. But even so, [32:10] when you love your spouse, you're also [32:12] expecting things in return, right? [32:14] You're both in a relationship. You're [32:15] both working hard. You have a reasonable [32:17] expectation that your spouse is going to [32:18] work hard and that you're going to get [32:20] kind of this symbiotic relationship. [32:22] With a kid, it's different. With a [32:24] child, it's completely different. You [32:26] feel an immense love for them [32:28] unconditionally with no expectation of [32:31] getting anything back in the [32:32] relationship. None. I love my children [32:34] more than anything and I don't expect [32:36] them to do anything to ever pay me back [32:38] ever. I would love them and serve them [32:40] for the rest of their lives. And that is [32:43] different than I believe anything else. [32:44] The second thing that I'll mention is [32:46] kids are actually really fun. They're [32:48] actually awesome. More people should [32:50] talk positively about them. My boy now [32:52] is 11 years old and I watch movies with [32:54] him. I go out to the movies frequently [32:56] with him. We play Xbox together. We stay [32:58] up late at night watching YouTube videos [33:00] of scor scary scary stories and horror [33:02] stories, right? He he loves that stuff. [33:05] We play soccer together. We go camping [33:06] together. Uh we go fishing together. Uh [33:09] we do a lot together. It's fun. I look [33:11] forward to spending time with him. And [33:13] that perspective isn't shared. A lot of [33:15] times they're they're looked at like a [33:16] nuisance, which is not true. Unless [33:18] you're a deeply selfish person. Kids are [33:21] actually a lot of fun. if you can put [33:23] down the phone and spending time with [33:25] them, they're fun. Um, and so that's [33:27] another thing that I think is is lost [33:29] with a lot of the the conversations I [33:31] see online. And then finally, one last [33:33] thing, a lot of people look at this and [33:34] they'll go, "Joseph, of course, it's [33:36] easy to have kids when you have millions [33:38] of dollars and you're a YouTuber and you [33:40] make a lot of money." That is true. I'm [33:41] in a very strong and fortunate position [33:43] financially today. And that does [33:45] alleviate some of the burdens of having [33:47] kids, but it doesn't alleviate the most [33:49] important ones. And it's really not as [33:51] important, I believe, as people make it [33:52] out to be. I did not have hardly any [33:55] money when we had our first kid. When we [33:58] had my first kid, I was 25 years old. I [34:00] was making $40,000 a year, I believe, [34:03] right around there. 35 $40,000 per year. [34:06] We had like no money and it worked out [34:08] anyways. You make it work. We made [34:10] homemade meals. We we still traveled. We [34:13] still did things. We just didn't have a [34:15] lot of discretionary money to spend. And [34:17] that's fine because a lot of [34:18] entertainment can be had for very cheap. [34:20] Uh, and this is something that also gets [34:22] missed. You only have a short window to [34:25] really build a family and have kids, but [34:26] you have your entire life to make money. [34:28] There's always more time and to work and [34:30] to to get job increases and pay and to [34:33] build things that make money. But having [34:34] children is a bit more limited. Having [34:36] money is great. Making more money [34:38] relieves a level of stress, for sure. [34:40] But I think there's way too much [34:41] emphasis on being super financially [34:43] stable before ever thinking about having [34:44] a kid. That's not the journey I took. [34:47] It's not the one that I think is best. [34:48] And uh from my perspective, having a [34:50] full family full of kids and experiences [34:52] and life and development is way better [34:54] than having a bunch of money. So that's [34:56] my thoughts overall. That's going to be [34:58] it for this episode. Hope you enjoyed. [34:59] See you in the next one.