AfD Gains Fuel Anti-Islam Backlash as European Data Refutes Takeover

The Economist

Europe's far right and Islamists operate in a symbiotic cycle that manufactures fear and isolates minorities, even as demographic data shows Muslims make up just 6% of the continent's population.

AI-assisted summary of Is Europe facing a "Muslim takeover"? The data says otherwise | The Economist — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-09-12

Key ideas

Official demographic data contradicts fears of a 'Muslim takeover': Muslims make up only about 6% of Europe's population, no country exceeds 10%, and immigrant fertility rates converge to native baselines within two generations. (2:37)
Anti-Islam sentiment has shifted from the political fringes into the mainstream, with over 50% of Britons now viewing Islam as incompatible with British values. (2:37)
Far-right political factions and Islamist agitators act as symbiotic 'evil twins,' each leveraging the other's rhetoric to justify hostility and mobilize supporters. (8:05)
Despite significant socioeconomic integration gains—such as young British Bangladeshis entering university at twice the rate of white working-class peers—mainstream politicians fail to present an effective counter-narrative to populist panic. (10:28)

Detailed notes

## Background Published by The Economist on YouTube on September 12, 2026, the video addresses widespread European anxieties about Islam. Hosted by deputy editor Edward Carr alongside a panel of expert journalists, it explores why anti-Islam sentiment is rising despite data showing Muslims comprise only a small percentage of Europe's population with attitudes largely resembling their fellow citizens.

## TL;DR The panel refutes the narrative of an impending 'Islamic takeover,' highlighting that Muslims represent only about 6% of Europe's population and that immigrant fertility rates rapidly normalize to native baselines within two generations. While acknowledging genuine localized tensions around segregated enclaves and social conservatism, the journalists carefully differentiate between Islam, political Islamism, and violent jihadism. They identify a toxic symbiosis between far-right political parties and Islamist agitators, who act as 'evil twins' by amplifying each other's rhetoric to alienate minority communities. Ultimately, the discussion stresses that tangible integration successes—such as high educational attainment and civic leadership among British Muslims—are routinely overshadowed because mainstream politicians lack the vocabulary to articulate them against populist panic.

## Atmosphere & style The discussion carries a measured, analytical, and distinctly sober journalistic tone, characteristic of an expert editorial roundtable. It contrasts the breathless, shock-driven hysteria of social media algorithms and far-right campaign platforms with calm, empirical demographic reality. Listening to the panel feels like stepping out of a polarized media storm into an intellectual debrief, moving from initial alarmism to a thoughtful, reflective critique of mainstream political communication.

## Bulletin - [02:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=157s) Official demographic data contradicts fears of a 'Muslim takeover': Muslims make up only about 6% of Europe's population, no country exceeds 10%, and immigrant fertility rates converge to native baselines within two generations. - [02:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=157s) Anti-Islam sentiment has shifted from the political fringes into the mainstream, with over 50% of Britons now viewing Islam as incompatible with British values. - [08:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=485s) Far-right political factions and Islamist agitators act as symbiotic 'evil twins,' each leveraging the other's rhetoric to justify hostility and mobilize supporters. - [10:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=628s) Despite significant socioeconomic integration gains—such as young British Bangladeshis entering university at twice the rate of white working-class peers—mainstream politicians fail to present an effective counter-narrative to populist panic.

## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=0s) The AfD's regional manifesto explicitly pledges to use all legal means to restrict Islam, defining it as a 'culturally alien religion.' - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=0s) American right-wing commentators and tech figures such as Elon Musk amplify narratives portraying Europe as a cautionary tale ruined by unchecked migration and liberal elites. - [02:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=157s) Anti-immigrant sentiment has moved into mainstream European politics, reflected in British polling and the electoral dominance of Marine Le Pen in France. - [02:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=157s) Demographic statistics show that Europe's Muslim population stands at roughly 6%, with no nation surpassing 10%, directly refuting demographic replacement claims. - [02:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=157s) While UK Muslim population growth accelerated post-2021, higher newcomer fertility rates reliably normalize toward host-country baselines within two generations. - [05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=342s) Localized residential polarization has created hyper-segregated neighborhoods where Muslim residents comprise 70% to 80% of the community. - [05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=342s) Practices such as wearing the hijab reveal a liberal dilemma between safeguarding personal autonomy and addressing potential community coercion in insular enclaves. - [05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=342s) Public debates frequently conflate three distinct categories: Islam as a religion, Islamism as a political movement, and jihadism as violent militancy. - [08:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=485s) The far right and Islamists operate in a mutually beneficial symbiosis, exploiting each other's rhetoric to alienate moderate Muslims and justify radical positions. - [08:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=485s) The far right poses an immediate systemic threat to democratic governance because it commands millions of votes and viable pathways to executive power. - [08:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=485s) Surging far-right support leads moderate Muslims in places like eastern Germany to question whether they have a future in their home country. - [10:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=628s) British Muslims have achieved prominent civic representation, including holding the office of Mayor of London. - [10:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=628s) Young British Bangladeshis enter university at roughly twice the rate of their white working-class counterparts, demonstrating strong upward educational mobility. - [10:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=628s) Mainstream European political parties lack the narrative tools and vocabulary to communicate positive integration outcomes against populist alarmism.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=0s) The Rise of the AfD and Transatlantic Perceptions of Europe

The discussion opens with the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) securing a striking election result in eastern Germany. While an explicitly anti-Islam platform was not front and center of every campaign speech, the AfD's manifesto for the election contains uncompromising, harsh rhetoric directed at the faith. Specifically, the party pledge states that an AfD government will "exhaust all possibilities to limit the influence of this culturally alien religion in Saxony-Anhalt to the extent allowed by law." Reporting from the ground across recent weeks indicates that this framing is not a fringe view within the party; it is a sentiment that most AfD voters in Saxony-Anhalt and throughout Germany would readily endorse.

Across the Atlantic, this political shift reinforces a rapidly hardening narrative among conservative and right-wing Americans who view Europe with mounting alarm. Interviews with people in the United States reveal two dominant perceptions: first, that Europe has been physically and culturally "overrun by Islamic invaders," and second, that European societies have been fundamentally betrayed by a "woke liberal elite." To these observers, European developments serve as an apocalyptic cautionary tale of what could soon happen to America—even though the Muslim demographic in the United States remains comparatively very small.

This worldview is significantly amplified by high-profile, wealthy figures like Elon Musk, who has openly engaged in European political debates and voiced support for the AfD. Many Americans consuming this narrative have not visited Britain or continental Europe in years. Instead, they rely almost exclusively on X (formerly Twitter) for their news. Feeds on the platform are saturated with sensationalized, high-shock video clips depicting migrant crime or dramatic border breaches—such as recent footage from the Spanish enclave of Ceuta—framing immigration not merely as an administrative challenge, but as an existential civilizational collapse.

- **AfD Manifesto Stance:** Pledges legal efforts to suppress the presence of Islam as a "culturally alien religion." - **American Right-Wing Framing:** Views Europe as a cautionary tale ruined by liberal elites and unchecked migration. - **Role of Social Media:** Algorithms on X curating alarming, viral clips of migrant unrest shape skewed international views of European everyday life.

---

[02:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=157s) Anti-Islam Sentiment, French Politics, and the Demographics of "Takeover"

Anxiety over Islam is no longer confined to the far-right margins; it has steadily expanded into mainstream European public opinion. Over the last two decades, public concern regarding immigration and Islam has surged significantly. In Britain, over half of the population now believes that Islam is incompatible with British values. A similar dynamic grips France, where Marine Le Pen leads presidential polling. Meanwhile, on the French far left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon actively gathers votes among those alarmed by rising Islamophobia, cultivating deep support in the diverse *banlieues* on the outskirts of major cities. While the far right excels at seizing a tiny kernel of fact and blowing it completely out of proportion, the underlying political discourse across Europe has grown deeply polarized.

Despite the pervasive panic surrounding an impending "Islamic takeover" or demographic replacement, official statistical data completely contradicts the narrative. Muslims currently account for roughly 6% of Europe's total population—a modest rise of only about one to one-and-a-half percentage points over recent decades. France holds the largest Muslim community within Europe, yet no European nation has a Muslim population exceeding 10%, with most hovering near the continental average of around 6%.

While the demographic trajectory is far from an invasion, growth rates have accelerated in specific areas. In the United Kingdom, census data indicates the Muslim population has expanded since 2021 twice as fast as its historical ten-year pace. Furthermore, the counter-argument that Muslim birth rates will inevitably overwhelm host populations ignores established demographic reality: newcomer families do initially average higher fertility rates—with British Muslim growth driven roughly equally by ongoing migration and local births—yet immigrant fertility rates consistently converge toward the local population average within just two generations.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Realities of European Muslim Demographics accDescr: Diagram illustrating the gap between demographic takeover claims and actual statistical trends.

subgraph Claims["Political Claims"] C1["Narrative of rapid 'Muslim takeover'"] C2["Fears of permanent fertility imbalances"] end

subgraph Reality["Demographic Realities"] R1["Average European Muslim population is ~6%"] R2["No European nation exceeds 10% Muslim share"] R3["Fertility rates converge to native norms within 2 generations"] end

Claims -.->|"Refuted by data"| Reality ```

- **British Public Opinion:** Over 50% of Britons consider Islam incompatible with British values. - **European Population Share:** Muslims represent approximately 6% of Europe overall, with no country topping 10%. - **Growth Dynamics:** In Britain, post-2021 growth occurred twice as fast as the prior decadal rate, split roughly 50/50 between fresh arrivals and domestic births. - **Fertility Convergence:** High fertility rates among incoming populations normalize to host-country baselines within two generations.

---

[05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=342s) Segregated Enclaves and the Tension Over Social Conservatism

While broad population indicators show rising integration across Britain and Europe as a whole, a counter-trend of localized residential polarization has emerged. The absolute number of hyper-segregated neighborhoods—areas where 70% to 80% of residents are Muslim—has grown. It is within these concentrated social enclaves that anxieties about coercive social conservatism gain traction, sparking fierce debates over where personal freedom ends and community pressure begins.

In France, a specialized interior ministry investigation examined this exact dilemma, attempting to parse whether practices like young girls donning the hijab stem from voluntary family norms or coercive community pressure. Liberal European values champion personal autonomy and absolute equality between men and women; consequently, public officials worry that conservative group expectations breach the individual rights of young women. Yet the issue remains nuanced: many Gen Z Muslim women actively choose to wear the hijab as a proud assertion of their hybrid identity and personal expression. This creates an acute internal conflict for liberals, torn between defending an individual's right to dress freely without state interference and worrying about whether young women in tightly knit enclaves are genuinely acting out of unconstrained free will.

To navigate these social tensions rationally, the panel emphasizes the absolute necessity of separating three concepts that public discourse routinely conflates:

1. **Islam:** The global personal religion and theological faith. 2. **Islamism:** A distinct political movement seeking to institutionalize Islamic values and laws across state and civil society. 3. **Jihadism:** The violent, armed struggle to force political and religious change.

---

[08:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=485s) The "Evil Twins": How Islamism and the Far Right Feed Each Other

A recurring conclusion across on-the-ground reporting in Germany, France, and neighboring states is that Islamism and the far right operate in a toxic, mutually beneficial symbiosis. Described as "evil twins," both extremes require each other to manufacture fear, mobilize their base, and justify their rhetoric. If one faction ceased to exist, the other would struggle to rally popular crowds. While both present serious risks, the far right represents an immediate systemic threat to democratic governance simply because it commands millions of votes and holds a realistic path toward executive power, whereas Islamist entryism commands no comparable institutional clout.

In Germany, Islamist propaganda online mirrors the AfD's rhetoric almost point for point to drive alienation among well-integrated German Muslims. Islamist agitators tell young believers that Germany has no space for their identity and that their religion will never be permitted to flourish, urging them to separate themselves from German society. This separatist message gains immense credibility when those same individuals watch Saxony-Anhalt deliver massive vote tallies to an AfD whose platform is openly Islamophobic, or when they see the party soaring in federal polls nationwide.

Interviews with ordinary, non-extremist Muslims in eastern Germany reveal a palpable chill: many openly admit they are questioning whether they can remain in a state governed by political forces that reject their existence. By driving minority communities into defensive withdrawal and validation of extremist narratives, the rise of the far right directly sabotages the very mechanism required to solve social friction over the long term: gradual integration and mutual civic assimilation.

[10:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=628s) The Integration Success Story and Mainstream Politics' Missing Narrative

The discussion concludes by highlighting that beneath the political alarmism, there is actually a remarkably positive integration story unfolding across Europe—most visibly in the United Kingdom. British Muslims increasingly occupy prominent positions of power and public authority, including elected mayors in major cities such as London. Educational and social mobility trends reveal similar strides; for instance, young British Bangladeshis attend university at roughly twice the rate of their white working-class counterparts. Rather than representing an insular or parallel society, large segments of the Muslim population are actively climbing academic and civic ladders.

The central paradox, however, is why this reality fails to resonate across the broader political landscape. The panel observes that despite having a genuinely compelling record of social and economic integration to showcase, the political mainstream struggles to communicate it effectively. Lacking the confidence, the right tools, or the necessary vocabulary, mainstream politicians repeatedly fail to construct a counter-narrative against populist panic, allowing fears over social conservatism and cultural incompatibility to dominate public debate unchecked.

- **Civic and political representation:** British Muslims have steadily advanced into prominent civic roles and positions of political authority, including high-profile offices such as the Mayor of London. - **Educational advancement:** British Bangladeshis now progress into higher education at approximately double the rate of their native peers. - **The political messaging gap:** Mainstream politicians struggle to counter anti-Muslim populist rhetoric because they lack the framing and narrative tools to articulate the tangible successes of immigrant integration.

## Notable quotes > [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=0s) exhaust all possibilities to limit the influence of this culturally alien religion in Saxony-Anhalt to the extent allowed by law. — Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Manifesto

> [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=0s) overrun by Islamic invaders

> [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=0s) woke liberal elite

> [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=0s) culturally alien religion — Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Manifesto

> [02:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=157s) Islamic takeover

> [02:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=157s) Muslim takeover

> [03:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=223s) Islamic invasion

> [08:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0&t=485s) evil twins

## Mentioned The Economist, Edward Carr, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, United States, Elon Musk, Britain / United Kingdom, X (Twitter), Ceuta, France, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, London, Instagram, Facebook

## Video description Panic about Islam in Europe is spreading. In several European countries around half the population believe that Islam is incompatible with Western values. But in reality Muslims make up only a small percentage of Europe’s people, and their attitudes largely resemble their compatriots. Why, then, are so many Europeans against Islam?

Edward Carr, The Economist’s deputy editor, and a panel of our expert journalists attempt to answer this question. They assess the real extent of the threat from Islamism—or political Islam—in Europe today.

#Europe #Germany #France #UK #politics

01:09 - Anti-muslim sentiment in European politics 03:43 - Is Europe really facing an “Islamic invasion?” 05:55 - How worrying is the spread of social conservatism? 07:46 - The difference between Islam, Islamism and jihadism 08:05 - How the far right and Islamists are feeding off each other

Watch the full show: http://bit.ly/4yxapXE Sign up to the Insider newsletter: https://econ.st/4nOyzIb

Subscribe to The Economist: https://www.economist.com/subscribe Download our app: https://www.economist.com/get-the-app

Follow The Economist on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theeconomist/ Follow The Economist on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist Follow The Economist on X: https://x.com/TheEconomist

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To8r_IWYhZ0)

中文简报

AfD支持率上升加剧反伊斯兰情绪，欧洲数据反驳“伊斯兰接管论” 欧洲极右翼与伊斯兰主义者陷入制造恐惧并孤立少数群体的共生循环，尽管人口数据显示穆斯林仅占欧洲大陆人口的6%。专家小组反驳了所谓“伊斯兰即将接管”的说法，强调穆斯林仅占欧洲人口的约6%，且移民生育率在两代之内迅速回落至本土基准水平。在承认隔离社区和社会保守主义确实引发了局部紧张局势的同时，记者们审慎地区分了伊斯兰教、政治伊斯兰主义和暴力圣战主义。他们指出，极右翼政党与伊斯兰主义煽动者之间存在有害的共生关系，二者如同“孪生恶魔”，通过相互放大对方的说辞来疏离少数族裔群体。讨论最终强调，切实存在的融合成果（例如英国穆斯林的高受教育程度和公民领导力）经常被掩盖，因为主流政治家缺乏在民粹主义恐慌面前阐述这些成果的表达能力。官方人口数据反驳了对“穆斯林接管”的担忧：穆斯林仅占欧洲人口的约6%，没有任何国家超过10%，且移民生育率在两代之内就会趋同于本土基准水平。 (2:37) 反伊斯兰情绪已从政治边缘蔓延至主流，超过50%的英国人如今认为伊斯兰教与英国价值观不相容。 (2:37) 极右翼政治派系与伊斯兰主义煽动者构成了共生的“孪生恶魔”，双方相互利用对方的言论来为敌意辩护并动员支持者。 (8:05) 尽管在社会经济融合方面取得了显著成果——例如年轻的英国孟加拉裔进入大学的比例是白人工人阶级同龄人的两倍——但主流政客未能提供有效的反制论调来应对民粹主义恐慌。 (10:28)

Reading summary

Political alarmists in Europe and the United States increasingly claim that Europe is undergoing an "Islamic takeover," but official demographic data and social indicators show this narrative is contradicted by modest population shares and substantial civic integration. Demographic Data Refutes "Takeover" Narratives (2:37) Populist movements such as Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and conservative commentators in the United States routinely frame Muslim migration as an existential civilizational collapse. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD's manifesto pledged to exhaust all legal means to limit the influence of Islam as a "culturally alien religion." In the US, viral social media clips on X drive perceptions that Europe has been overrun by migrants and betrayed by liberal elites. Within Europe, anxiety has permeated the mainstream: over 50% of Britons now view Islam as incompatible with British values, and Marine Le Pen leads presidential polling in France. Demographic statistics directly contradict this replacement narrative. Muslims account for approximately 6% of Europe's total population—an increase of only 1 to 1.5 percentage points over recent decades—and no European country has a Muslim population exceeding 10%. While the Muslim population in the United Kingdom grew twice as fast after 2021 as its previous ten-year rate, split evenly between migration and domestic births, historical demographic patterns show that immigrant fertility rates reliably converge to host-country averages within two generations. Enclave Polarization and Defining Religious Practice (5:42) Despite broad demographic stability, localized polarization has grown, marked by an increasing number of hyper-segregated neighborhoods where 70% to 80% of residents are Muslim. These concentrated enclaves trigger intense debates over individual liberties and community pressure. In France, an interior ministry investigation examined whether young women wearing the hijab do so through voluntary expression or coercive family and communal expectations, highlighting a tension for liberals torn between safeguarding personal autonomy and protecting individual choice. Navigating these domestic tensions requires separating concepts that public discourse frequently conflates: Islam, the worldwide religious faith; Islamism, a political movement attempting to institutionalize Islamic laws across civil society; and Jihadism, the violent armed struggle to impose political and religious change. The Mutually Reinforcing Dynamic of Extremisms (8:05) Reporting across France and Germany demonstrates that the far right and Islamism function as "evil twins," relying on each other's rhetoric to mobilize supporters and justify their existence. Online Islamist propagandists in Germany cite the AfD's electoral success and anti-Muslim rhetoric to convince young believers that German society rejects them, encouraging them to withdraw into insular communities. While both factions create societal friction, the far right presents an immediate systemic threat to democratic governance because it commands millions of votes and holds a viable path to executive office, whereas Islamism possesses no comparable institutional power. Interviews with mainstream Muslims in eastern Germany indicate that the AfD's ascent has induced a palpable chill, prompting residents to question whether they can remain in regions where political leaders openly contest their presence. Integration Milestones Versus Mainstream Messaging Failures (10:28) Beneath the populist alarmism lies an underreported record of successful integration, particularly in the United Kingdom. British Muslims increasingly occupy influential civic positions, including major municipal offices such as the Mayor of London. In education, upward social mobility is pronounced: young British Bangladeshis now attend university at roughly twice the rate of their white working-class peers. Despite these measurable advances, mainstream political leaders repeatedly fail to articulate an effective counter-narrative. Lacking the vocabulary and confidence to highlight integration successes, the political establishment has allowed populist claims of cultural incompatibility to dominate public discourse unchecked. While localized neighborhood segregation and debates over social conservatism remain genuine policy challenges, demographic evidence refutes the narrative of an Islamic takeover; the central unresolved problem is the political mainstream's failure to communicate the reality of civic and educational integration.

Source quotes

[0:00] Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Manifesto: exhaust all possibilities to limit the influence of this culturally alien religion in Saxony-Anhalt to the extent allowed by law. [0:00] overrun by Islamic invaders [0:00] woke liberal elite [0:00] Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Manifesto: culturally alien religion [2:37] Islamic takeover [2:37] Muslim takeover [3:43] Islamic invasion [8:05] evil twins

Original transcript

[0:00] So Tom, let's start with you and the election in Saxony and Anhalt which the alternative at [0:06] Deutsland won with a really stunning result. To what extent is an anti-Muslim or anti-Islam [0:14] position part of the party's overall platform? I mean it wasn't front and center of this particular [0:21] campaign. Um, but the AFD's manifesto for the election in Saxony certainly contains some pretty [0:28] strong language on Islam. I'll quote it says an AFD government will exhaust all possibilities [0:34] to limit the influence of this culturally alien religion in Saxony Anhalt to the extent allowed [0:39] by law. Uh, and my guess having reported quite extensively from the last few weeks is that this [0:45] is something that most of the parties voters in Saxony-Anhalt but also elsewhere in Germany would [0:50] happily sign up to. you went to the US and you interviewed various people who are really worried [0:55] about Europe and what's happening here. How do you think they'll see a result like this and how [1:00] does that play into their general view of the continent? So, I think when I went to America, [1:05] there were two key views that really came across. The first is that Europe has been overrun by [1:10] Islamic invaders. The second is that they've been betrayed by a woke liberal elite. And so hearing [1:17] Tom explain some of that rhetoric in the manifesto just there, that will chime a lot, right? The [1:22] idea of an alien civilization that's incompatible because in America, Europe has been come to see as [1:27] a bit of a cautionary tale for what could come to America in a way that I think is quite surprising [1:32] to us um as an idea because obviously America has quite a small Muslim population. Anyway, [1:39] one of the things about that is that um you get rich, wealthy Americans like Elon Musk getting [1:46] really quite involved in European politics, for instance, supporting AFD. Exactly. So, one of [1:53] the things that struck me is a lot of people I met while I was there hadn't been to Britain to [1:58] Europe for quite some time and where they seem to be getting their news was predominantly X. [2:03] So if you've been on X recently, you can see often you're sent, you know, very shocking clips often, [2:08] whether it's of migrant crime, whether it's of invasions of supposed Muslims. We had that [2:14] obviously recently um in Cueta. And I think that helps create this image, right, that Europe is in [2:21] crisis and it faces not just a migrant crisis, but a civilizational crisis. And obviously the [2:26] owner of X is someone we're all very familiar with and that's Elon Musk. How does the stuff that's [2:31] happening there with Musk, how does that play into electoral politics here in um Britain? How does it [2:37] play into politics? Well, as in as in several other European countries, um you know, the the [2:44] the share of the population that is worried about a mix of migration and Islam and the sort of blend [2:53] together has gone up a lot over the last 20 years. Um over half of Britons now think um Islam is [3:00] incompatible with British values. So it's not just the fringe anymore. Sophia Le Pen's leading in the [3:06] polls a moment before next year's presidential election. Do you see something similar happening [3:11] in French politics with with everybody being dragged towards this issue? I think it's [3:16] already happened on the far left. Jean Melan who absolutely is gathering the vote of those who feel [3:22] that there's been a rise in Islamophobia and so he has very strong uh support in the sort of mu you [3:29] know the outer edges of a lot of French cities where uh there are a lot of the population is [3:33] descended from immigration at some point and that is something that he's playing because the because [3:38] the politics have become very toxic on the right the far right is extremely good at just taking a [3:43] little nub of the little bit of information and then blowing it complete out of proportion so [3:48] let's just let's just look first at the the really persistent claim that there is some sort of you [3:54] know takeover Muslim takeover and there isn't uh we have data to show this um uh Europe's Muslim [4:01] population is is is around 6% now um that's up probably about you know a percent% percent and [4:08] a half uh over time the data that we have here I should say ends in 2020 and of course there are [4:13] several countries like Britain uh and and Germany that have had significant growth Do we know how [4:18] much? I know for Britain that since the census, so 2021, the Muslim population has grown as fast [4:25] as it normally would have taken a decade. So, you know, twice as fast. I don't know the exact number [4:29] by heart, but it is a significant growth. Um, that said, you know, we are still talking, as I say, [4:35] big picture about, you know, no country in Europe, I believe, has more than 10%. And I think France [4:40] probably has the largest um Muslim population and most are hovering as I say around that average um [4:46] uh under 6%. Um that is not a Muslim takeover and sort of the argument that you might get back. Yes, [4:55] but they have lots of children and so over time now before I completely shoot that down, it's true [5:01] newcomers do have more children. Um and in fact in Britain I believe roughly half of the growth in [5:08] the Muslim population has come from migration and the other half has come from just you know British [5:12] Muslims having children like the rest of us. Um but again you know uh fertility rates converge you [5:19] know become similar to the local population within two within two generations. So this this this big [5:24] claim of like the population is becoming Muslim is statistically not true. equally, you know, [5:31] saying there has been no growth in the Muslim population is obviously nonsense. There has [5:36] been in Britain across the board, integration is up, which is good news. Um, but that the number [5:42] of the number of neighborhoods that are like 70 80% Muslims, which is very very segregated, has [5:49] gone up as well. And it's those neighborhoods that we worry about. How much do we worry about in in [5:55] these enclaves socially conservative values being imposed on other people? Let's start with you [6:01] Sophie on on that. Well, it's exactly this subject uh that there was this report by the interior [6:06] ministry in France looked into. It's trying to distinguish. It's very difficult because, [6:09] you know, if you have uh a claim that young girls are being put under pressure to wear, let's say, [6:14] the hijab uh because they're in an environment that is socially conservative, that could simply [6:19] be respecting the family will or respecting the norms that are part of a particular culture. or [6:26] as some of the people who the report spoke to suggest actually this could also be putting un [6:32] unfair pressure and undermining what in a lot of most countries in Europe would consider the most [6:37] important thing and that's to have freedom of uh choice and especially freedom of between women [6:42] and men. So, you know, in France in particular, they're very very concerned that girls rights, [6:47] women's rights are potentially being breached uh or being undermined by what what what some people [6:54] will cons consider just conservative choices. And that's very difficult. It's a really difficult [6:58] issue. How should I discuss this? And we we can't you know, I've interviewed you a lot of [7:02] um women and young women in France who chose to have chosen to wear the hijab. And it's very [7:06] difficult because, you know, you a lot of a lot of it's about identity. It's about expression. It's [7:11] about young women feeling, you know, this is Gen Z wanting to, you know, make a statement and the [7:16] statement is, you know, I'm I'm I'm very relaxed about my Muslim identity and I want to wear the [7:20] hijab because of that. And as a liberal, it's so hard, right? Because the last thing you want [7:24] to do is also get involved with telling young pe women how they should dress and yet at the same [7:28] so you know the liberal in me says do whatever you want. The concerned person in me says is it [7:35] free will or not? And I think that is one of the concerns in highly you know that is one of the [7:39] concerns around the conservative value figures in general. So there's there's partly a definitional [7:44] question here between Islam the religion Islamism which is a political movement seeking to impose [7:51] the values of Islam through the law and through society and then right at the end jihadism which [7:56] is a violent struggle to bring about change. All of those things are different. It's very [8:00] important that we keep those separate. One thing that's really striking that came out, you know, [8:04] we had we had Tom reporting from Germany, um Sophie from from from France and several other [8:10] count colleagues from other countries. One thing that's really striking to me is that all seem to [8:16] um acknowledge that Islamism, Islamists and the far right need each other. They they make each [8:21] other worse. They feed off each other. Um there's this really unhealthy symbiosis that pushes both [8:27] to the extremes. and the other didn't exist, it would probably be quite hard to gather a crowd, [8:31] you know. So, so they so both are, in my opinion, both are are a threat. I I agree with our with [8:39] our readers that the far right ultimately is the bigger threat for all the reasons you've [8:44] mentioned, but also just because they have more support. Like there is, as we as we started the [8:48] show with, you know, there's so much concern in Europe about Islam. Most people don't know [8:54] the difference between Islam and Islamism. The the chance of the far right actually getting power to [8:59] do anything is just far greater than the entryism that we've been talking about. Tom, this is a [9:04] really important point. Um several people I spoke to made that um the point the distinction that [9:10] that Sasha just made. Um these as one person put it to me, these evil twins of in the German case, [9:15] AFD and Islamists. Um and one thing that some of these groups um particularly the ones that [9:22] um uh put a lot of propaganda online will try to do is to tell Muslims often you know German in [9:28] some respects quite well integrated Muslims this is not a country that has space for you. Your [9:34] identity cannot flourish here. You need to be somewhere else. And when those same people who may [9:39] be tempted by that message see Saxony and Yanhel, 44% of Germans in Saxony voting for a party that [9:46] is explicitly Islamophobic in its manifesto when they see that party now having a wide opinion [9:51] poll gap across the entire country. Obviously that kind of message is going to become that much more [9:57] potent. I spoke to plenty of people in Sax and Yanhalt, not Islamists, but some of them Muslims, [10:02] who said that they weren't sure that they would want to live in a state that um was prepared to [10:06] elect a government of that sort. So that kind of dynamic um the far right on one side and Islamism [10:12] on the other is potentially very very dangerous. Yeah, I completely agree. I mean, if the answer [10:16] to this problem long term is integration, this is exactly what stops integration and assimilation [10:21] happening. So it's a it's a really bad thing. I think it does. I mean one of the things that [10:24] none of us have mentioned here and I think it's worth pointing out is that actually Europe has [10:28] a very good integration story to tell uh I mean it's particularly the case in the UK you put that [10:32] in some of the reporting um you know Muslim Brit Brit British people who occupy positions [10:38] of authority power elected may Bangladesh go to London Bangladesh goes to university at twice the [10:44] rate I think of you know correct I mean exactly so you know there isn't actually a very good story to [10:50] be told and I think one of the difficulties for the sort of political mainstream dream is that [10:54] they don't seem to have the right way or the tools or the vocabulary to to tell that story.