South Korea Faces Collapse by 2040 as Status Hunting Tanks Births

追逐地位重创生育率，韩国至2040年面临崩溃 现代过度竞争将婚姻从一种生物繁衍体系转变为争夺社会地位的零和博弈，导致东亚生育率跌破更替水平，预示着文明的衰退。 本讲座探讨了如何通过博弈论的分析框架来剖析人类动机与社会结构，并以现代婚姻市场作为主要案例研究。尽管从理性经济学视角来看存在合作型的纳什均衡，但现实生活中的约会机制已退化为一场具有破坏性的地位博弈，从而将排序靠后的人群彻底挤出市场。这种对地位而非生物繁衍的追求改变了社会上层结构，导致富裕国家的全球生育率出现严重崩溃。最终，像韩国这样的国家正面临迫在眉睫的人口灭绝危机，而像以色列这样独特的文化特例以及像沙特阿拉伯这样的福利国家，则仍能维持高于更替水平的生育率。 Jiang教授概述了人类动机的五大历史框架：宗教、生物学、种族/文化、经济学和自由主义。 (0:01) 生物学上的不对称性决定了女性在抚育每个子女时必须承担巨大的身体和时间投入，这使得她们相比男性更具挑选性。 (0:01) 博弈论提供了一个由三个基本要素组成的分析框架：参与者、规则/约束以及激励机制。 (4:56) 在一个封闭、理性的婚姻市场中，个人主义的最大化追求会导致崩溃，而合作型的“纳什均衡”则能实现稳定且最优的配对契合。 (11:00) 现实生活中的约会市场打破了纳什均衡，因为注意力极度向顶层个体集中，从而迫使排序靠后的男性沦为“非自愿独身者”（incels）。 (17:30)

The speaker argues that modern human courtship and demographic patterns are governed by game-theoretic incentives centered on zero-sum status competition rather than biological reproduction or economic rationality. This behavioral shift, driven by changing societal superstructures, threatens advanced economies with catastrophic demographic collapse while favoring societies with distinct survivalist or state-subsidized frameworks. Game Theory as an Analytical Lens for Behavior (4:56) Human societies have historically rationalized behavioral motivations through religion, biology, racial dominance, financial self-interest, or liberal progressivism. Biological explanations highlight an asymmetric investment in reproduction: minimal physical output from males versus a heavy commitment from females involving nine months of gestation, painful childbirth, and 16 to 18 years of child-rearing. This asymmetry establishes a fundamental behavioral divide between male promiscuity and female selectivity. To move beyond subjective or moralizing views of societal behavior, the speaker frames human interactions through game theory. A game consists of three structural components: players, rules or boundary constraints, and incentives. By analyzing these three variables, observers can objectively decode why irrational-seeming geopolitical decisions occur—such as U.S. interventions abroad or military conflicts—and gain predictive foresight into both international affairs and personal outcomes. The Breakdown of Rational Dating Equilibria (11:00) In a theoretical marriage market simulation of ten individuals ranked from 1 to 5 by attractiveness—measured by genetics, family wealth, and social status—pure individual biological optimization leads to systemic failure. If every female waits exclusively for the top male, the reproductive system collapses. Economically, if the highest-ranked male tries to string along all women, higher-status women rationally settle for slightly lower-tier men, leaving the top male with the lowest option. The rational mathematical solution is a cooperative Nash equilibrium, where matching occurs across equal tiers (5 with 5, down to 1 with 1). In reality, this cooperative equilibrium fails. The speaker recounts a classroom experiment where 30-year-old hypothetical men accepted minimal physical criteria to marry, while women demanded extreme wealth, including up to a million dollars a month, if forced to marry without love. The speaker argues modern courtship is no longer an evolutionary reproductive game but a quest for social status, where partners are treated as display assets for peer validation and social media clout. Consequently, lower-ranked men (tiers 1 through 3) are shut out and retreat into gaming, pornography, and involuntary celibacy, leaving remaining players in a hyper-concentrated competition for the top tier. Historical Superstructures Shaping Courtship Rules (24:07) Courtship rules adapt according to a civilization's overarching "superstructure"—its economics, population size, technology, and external threats. In low-tech village societies of 200 to 300 people where maternal mortality was high, courtship was absent; women obscured paternity through multiple partners so all men had an incentive to protect offspring. In expanding societies of 10,000 to 20,000 people facing high external conflict, arranged marriages maximized birth rates for collective defense, prioritizing sheer numbers over individual partner preferences. In modern, overpopulated societies with high wealth, inequality, and high-tech survival rates, status opportunities are heavily diluted. The speaker argues this environment turns courtship hyper-competitive. Because having children carries heavy personal and financial burdens, women demand partners with superior wealth or attractiveness to justify the sacrifice, viewing upward marriage as one of the few viable paths to elevate social standing. Demographic Decline and Geopolitical Exceptions (28:46) Because status is a finite, zero-sum game, financial government subsidies fail to reverse declining birth rates. Across wealthy, educated populations, women increasingly opt out of childbearing, mirroring patterns preceding the collapse of past empires. In East Asia, fertility has plunged far below the 2.1 replacement threshold: China's rate fell from 1.7 to 1.0 in five years, setting its population on a trajectory to shrink to 600 million by 2100. South Korea exhibits the world's lowest rate at 0.6 to 0.8, where intense economic pressure leads families to invest all resources into a single child aiming for elite universities and Samsung careers. The speaker forecasts South Korea will become an unproductive "zombie society" by 2060 and risks total sovereign collapse between 2040 and 2080 due to economic breakdown and military vulnerability to North Korea. Two notable high-fertility outliers diverge from this trend. Saudi Arabia averages approximately four children per family, funded by an oil-backed welfare model that provides free housing, healthcare, schooling, and government jobs, although the speaker cautions this system remains fragile due to limited homegrown innovation and human capital. Israel stands alone as the only wealthy, high-tech democracy exceeding replacement fertility. The speaker attributes this to existential geopolitical threats, which align cultural incentives so that childbearing is viewed as an act of patriotism and a direct source of social status. The analysis demonstrates the utility of game theory in explaining why modern material incentives and status games suppress fertility rates, but it also reveals the model's analytical boundaries. Game theory helps identify the incentives behind demographic decline, yet it cannot readily supply solutions when a society's cultural framework prioritizes individual status over collective civilizational continuity.

讲者认为，人类社会行为与文明演化规律应通过博弈论的三大要素进行解码；在现代社会的超结构下，婚配与生育决策已从生物繁衍转变为争夺稀缺社会地位的零和博弈，这导致富裕国家深陷不可逆的人口衰退危机，而以色列与沙特阿拉伯则因迥异的文化与制度机制成为全球特例。 人类动机理论与博弈论的核心三要素 (4:56) 讲者回顾了解释人类行为动因的五种传统理论：以神魔善恶较量为核心的宗教论、强调基因延续与两性繁衍投资严重不对称（女性须承受9个月妊娠、分娩剧痛及近二十年抚养，而男性生理成本极低）的生物学论、主张种族与文化争霸的历史论、以追求财富为驱动的经济学论，以及认为社会必然走向理性与正义的自由主义。与这些传统学说相比，该课程将博弈论确立为解构个体与国家行为的核心分析工具。 讲者指出，任何博弈模型均由三大核心要素构成：参与者（Players）、规则与边界约束（Rules/Constraints）以及激励机制（Incentives）。理解这套框架不仅能帮助学生提升决策认知、理解国际冲突（如美委冲突、俄乌战争、以伊对抗与中美日关系等反直觉事件），更能赋予个体对未来趋势的预测力以及掌控自身命运的“主权”。 择偶困境：从纳什均衡到零和地位博弈 (11:00) 为阐明博弈逻辑，讲者建立了一个包含男女各5人、依据基因外貌、财富与社会地位评定为1至5分的封闭择偶模型。在纯粹生物驱动下，个体盲目追求最高基因配偶会导致社会协作崩溃；而理论上的最优解是“纳什均衡”，即通过5配5、4配4直至1配1的对等合作，使所有人获得稳定伴侣。然而，讲者强调现实中没人遵守这一规则。讲者分享的课堂调查显示，当面临大龄逼婚情境时，男性的妥协底线极低，而女性则提出极端的补偿条件（如要求“每月一百万美元”）。 这种不对称诉求彻底摧毁了纳什均衡。现实择偶市场演变为绝大多数女性争夺极少数顶级男性（如Elon Musk或Brad Pitt），导致中底层男性完全被排斥出局，沦为沉迷色情与游戏、放弃社会协作的“非自愿单身者”（incels）。讲者分析指出，这表明现代婚姻的底层激励已异化：择偶的核心目的不再是繁衍后代，而是获取能在Instagram等平台炫耀、激发他人嫉妒的社交资本，演变成一场纯粹的零和地位争夺战。 社会超结构的演化与全球生育率崩溃 (24:07) 讲者提出，人类所谓的“理性”受制于特定历史阶段的“社会超结构”（涵盖人口规模、技术、财富分配及外敌压力等）。人类经历了三种超结构：第一阶段是200至300人的原始村落，女性通过模糊父权激励所有男性共同护幼；第二阶段是1万至2万人的扩张社会，通过包办婚姻追求人口数量以应对生存竞争；第三阶段则是人口过剩的现代社会，高技术保障了母婴生存，但极度内卷使阶层跃升极其艰难，迫使个体通过择偶寻求地位跃升。 现代超结构催生了全球性的少子化危机。讲者列举数据指出，维持人口稳定所需的世代更替水平为每名女性生育2.1个孩子，而中国生育率已从五年前的1.7跌至约1.0，韩国更是滑落至0.6至0.8。讲者断言，政府单方面的经济补贴之所以完全失效，是因为金钱可以印造，但地位是零和博弈。历史规律表明，当受良好教育的富裕阶层女性集体拒绝生育时，往往标志着一个帝国或文明走向衰落的转折点。 地缘人口分野：东亚危局与中东异常特例 (36:42) 从地缘版图看，中非等发展中地区仍维系着高生育率（6至7个孩子），欧美通过接纳移民延缓劳动力衰退，而排斥移民的东亚则深陷险境。讲者预测，韩国因极端的教育与职场内卷（家庭倾尽财力供养独生子女冲击名校与Samsung），可能在2040年因人口断崖恶化为缺乏劳动力的“僵尸社会”，并在面对外部安全威胁时丧失防御能力，甚至可能在2080年前后面临主权解体风险。 然而，讲者根据图表数据指出，以色列是全球高收入国家中生育率唯一高于更替水平的特例。讲者将其归因于独特的文化超结构：外部地缘敌意将多育转化为爱国与全民崇尚的最高地位象征。针对学生提出的沙特阿拉伯特例（家庭平均约4名子女），讲者分析指出，沙特模式本质上是依靠巨额石油收入维系的福利体系（提供免费医疗、教育、住房与保障性公职），辅以深厚的宗教传统；但沙特缺乏开放的制度、高质量人力资本与自主技术创新能力，一旦遭遇地缘动荡或资源枯竭将极其脆弱，无法与兼具创新活力和民主批评文化的以色列相提并论。 讲者总结指出，博弈论并非万能的现成答案，而是一套引导研究者提出正确问题的思维工具。截至2024年的宏观数据进一步验证了这一逻辑：当物质享受与虚荣地位彻底取代家庭与族群责任时，过度拥挤的富裕文明势必遭遇人口塌陷；而一个国家能否穿越周期，最终取决于其内部制度是否鼓励开放创新，以及其文化超结构能否赋予人口繁衍真正的崇高价值。

[4:56] Professor Jiang: to make you into a better person [4:56] Professor Jiang: kidnapped a president [4:56] Professor Jiang: sovereignty over your own destiny [11:00] Professor Jiang: suicidal [17:30] Professor Jiang: in real life, no one actually follows this rule [17:30] Professor Jiang: a million dollars a month [17:30] Professor Jiang: incels [22:01] Professor Jiang: She may be the ugliest woman in the world, but she's still like, 'You know what? It's still my choice whether I have kids. And having kids is a pain in the ass.' So, if I'm going to make the sacrifice, this guy better be good-looking. Or this guy better be rich. Otherwise, why would I want to have kids? [24:07] Professor Jiang: Who cares who you marry? Just have lots and lots of kids [24:07] Professor Jiang: someone better than your social demographic circumstance can suggest [28:46] Professor Jiang: Because people don't want money, they want status. And status is a zero-sum game. [33:12] Professor Jiang: really really screwed [33:12] Professor Jiang: No dogs and no kids [33:12] Professor Jiang: people don't like outsiders [36:42] Professor Jiang: If you are a woman and you give birth to a lot of kids, that means that you love Israel... It means you are a patriot. [42:46] Professor Jiang: the only company in South Korea [46:06] Professor Jiang: Israel gets all its money from the United States [46:06] Professor Jiang: game theory doesn't give us the answers [48:09] Professor Jiang: Israel is the only wealthy nation in the world that has an above-replacement fertility rate

[0:01] This semester, we are going to analyze a [0:03] question together, which is how do [0:06] societies behave? [0:08] Why do we do what we do? [0:11] What motivates us? [0:13] What drives us? [0:14] And there have been different theories [0:17] as to what drives human behavior. Okay, [0:20] so let's go over some [0:22] theories. [0:24] The first theory [0:26] comes to us [0:28] from [0:30] um religion. [0:33] And the idea is that [0:37] we are all driven [0:40] in a war between good [0:43] and evil. [0:45] There's a good side to us and there is [0:47] an evil side to us. There's Satan and [0:50] there's God. [0:51] And we [0:54] are caught in a battle [0:56] in ourselves. [0:59] Okay? Do we move towards Satan or do we [1:02] move towards God? And that's the core of [1:06] human civilization. So religion is meant [1:09] to give us the strength, to show us the [1:13] path towards goodness. Okay, that's one [1:16] theory. [1:18] Another theory [1:20] is [1:22] comes to us from biology. [1:24] Okay, and the idea is [1:26] sex. [1:28] We want to pass on our genes [1:33] forward because that's the point of our [1:35] existence. [1:36] If we cannot have children, we all die. [1:39] So the point of existence [1:41] is to [1:44] have children and have them pass on [1:47] their genes to others, okay? [1:49] And [1:51] for males and females [1:57] life is different because as a man you [2:00] have a penis. [2:01] And all you have to do is stick your [2:02] penis into a woman and you're good. [2:04] Okay, that's all you have to do. [2:07] So you want to stick your penis in as [2:09] many women as possible and that's the [2:11] point of your existence. [2:13] But as a woman, your life is different [2:15] because [2:17] it's hard to give birth. [2:20] It takes 9 months to incubate the child [2:22] in your womb and then pit childbirth is [2:26] the most painful experience [2:28] anyone will ever experience. And then [2:30] the child, it'll take like 16 18 years [2:33] to raise a child to maturity. So there's [2:35] a huge investment on your part. So as a [2:38] female [2:39] you have to be very cautious, [2:42] very careful about who you marry or you [2:44] have or you or you or who you have sex [2:46] with, okay? And so life is a struggle [2:48] between men who want to put their penis [2:50] in into anything and women who want to [2:53] be careful about who they marry. Okay? [2:56] So that's the idea of biology. [3:00] Then of course you have the idea of race [3:04] and culture. [3:08] That the world it's a struggle between [3:10] these different races and cultures for [3:12] dominance. And each race, each culture [3:15] has their own characteristics. [3:18] Okay, so maybe the yellow race, it's [3:21] they're very clever [3:23] but they're very weak. [3:25] And then the white races are brave but [3:28] kind of stupid. And the black people [3:30] like anyway. Anyway, that's another [3:33] theory. I'm not saying it's correct, I'm [3:34] just saying it's a theory that people [3:36] believe in. [3:38] Then you have economics. [3:43] Right? And what they believe is that we [3:45] are driven by money or self-interest. [3:52] We want to make as much money as [3:54] possible [3:57] and that's what drives us. [3:59] Okay? That's pretty simple. [4:01] And the last big theory is the idea of [4:04] liberalism [4:07] that comes from the enlightenment. [4:13] And here the theory is that history is a [4:17] progress [4:19] towards enlightenment, to rationality, [4:23] to truth and to justice. So the [4:27] inevitability of history, of human [4:29] development is towards paradise, towards [4:31] heaven. And maybe, you know, we go off [4:34] track now and then, but inevitably we [4:38] move towards God. And this comes to us [4:42] from the enlightenment. We call this [4:45] liberalism. Okay, so these are five [4:47] theories, there are others, but these [4:48] are five theories that show you the [4:50] diversity, [4:52] the variety of ideas out there. [4:56] What I will do this semester is present [4:58] to you another theory, [5:01] which I call game theory. [5:05] >> [snorts] [5:05] >> And my argument to you is that game [5:08] theory is the best way to understand how [5:13] humans behave. What drives nations, [5:17] what drives societies, [5:20] what drives humans. Okay? So that's my [5:23] that's my argument to you this semester. [5:25] So the entire semester we will study [5:27] game theory. [5:29] All right, so what is game theory? [5:31] All right, game theory [5:34] is very simple. [5:36] The idea is that [5:38] there are three components to a game. [5:41] Just three [5:43] aspects to a game. There are the [5:45] players, [5:46] the participants. [5:50] Okay? [5:51] Then there are the rules [5:55] or the constraints. [5:58] Um in mathematics we would call this the [6:00] boundary conditions, okay? The limits to [6:04] the game. [6:05] And the third aspect are the incentives. [6:11] Basically, how do you win this game? [6:13] What do you get from this game? And my [6:16] argument to you this semester is that if [6:19] you study all three, okay? If you got [6:22] who the If you figure out who the [6:23] players are, if you got who the If you [6:26] understand the rules, you understand the [6:27] incentives, then you understand how the [6:30] game works and then therefore you can [6:33] predict how the game will turn out. [6:38] Okay, that's the skill that I want to [6:41] teach you this semester. [6:44] And what I want to show you, what I [6:47] promise you is that [6:50] if you learn game theory, [6:52] there'll be three major benefits to you [6:55] as a student. [6:56] Again, you don't have to learn game [6:58] theory. [6:59] You don't have to You don't have to come [7:00] to class. But if you spend the effort [7:04] to learn game theory from me, [7:08] then three things will benefit you, [7:11] okay? The first benefit [7:14] is that you'll become a better person. [7:20] The point of education, guys, it's not [7:23] to get good grades or get in university [7:26] or get a good job. What I believe is the [7:29] point of education is to make you into a [7:31] better person, which means that you are [7:34] a much more thoughtful person [7:37] who can better analyze yourself and the [7:40] world around you. [7:41] This allows you to make better better [7:43] decisions. This makes you a much more [7:45] curious, much more moral and much more [7:48] imaginative person, okay? So one benefit [7:52] of learning game theory is you become [7:53] smarter and therefore you you become a [7:56] better person. [7:58] Okay? That's number one. [8:01] Um [8:02] number two is [8:04] you'll be able to understand [8:07] the world [8:10] that we live in because this world is [8:14] kind of stupid, okay? So you may have [8:16] heard that Donald Trump um and the [8:20] American military went into Venezuela [8:21] for no real for no good reason, [8:24] kidnapped a president of Venezuela, [8:26] which is against you which is against [8:28] national law and then brought him back [8:30] to New York City where he will stand [8:32] trial. It's really stupid what happened. [8:36] But then but our class it's not meant to [8:39] say this is stupid or this is wrong [8:42] because we all know it's stupid and [8:43] wrong. We're trying to figure out why [8:45] this happened [8:47] and what this will lead to. [8:49] And so we will be in this class studying [8:53] and analyzing current events to [8:55] understand how the world really works, [8:57] why people behave the way they they do [9:00] and understand how the game of the world [9:03] works. And this requires you to actually [9:06] follow the news. [9:08] Okay? It's not hard to spend 5 minutes [9:10] and just read up on the news. We'll be [9:13] looking at the the war in Ukraine. We'll [9:15] be looking at a new war between Israel [9:17] and Iran. [9:18] We'll be looking at what's happening in [9:19] South America. We'll be looking at the [9:22] conflict between [9:23] China and Japan. [9:25] We'll be looking at the relationship [9:26] between the United States and China, [9:28] okay? So this is relevant to your lives [9:31] because you'll be you will eventually [9:34] have to work and live in this really [9:37] screwed up world that we live in. [9:39] Okay? [9:41] And the third benefit [9:43] is [9:47] once you understand the game, [9:49] you will have predictive powers. [9:52] You'll be able to understand how the [9:55] world will evolve. You'll be able to [9:58] analyze your own life and understand how [10:00] you would evolve. [10:02] And that gives you [10:04] control, [10:06] sovereignty over your own destiny. [10:10] Okay? That's my promise to you. If you [10:12] actually spend the time to listen [10:14] carefully in class, to participate [10:17] fully, to follow the news, [10:20] uh and you spend the entire semester [10:21] doing so, then these three benefits will [10:25] start to accrue in you. Okay? This is a [10:27] lifelong struggle to learn game theory. [10:31] I'm a lot older than you are. I have a [10:33] lot more experience than you. [10:35] Okay? But I want to show you how to look [10:38] at the world through game theory. [10:40] Another phrase that you you learn in [10:44] school is, "I'm going to teach you how [10:46] to think critically [10:48] about the world." [10:49] Well, I'll just teach you how to think, [10:50] okay? [10:53] All right? [10:54] Are we clear? [10:55] Any questions [10:57] before I move on? [10:59] All right. [11:00] So, this is all very abstract. [11:02] And so, what I'm what I'm going to do [11:03] now is I'm going to use an example [11:07] of a game [11:08] to show you how game theory works, okay? [11:10] All right. [11:11] So, let's let's use a really simple [11:13] game, okay? Let's imagine there are five [11:16] boys and five girls. [11:19] And they want to get married. [11:22] Okay? So, these are the players. [11:25] And what we're going to do is we're [11:27] going to line up them up into male and [11:29] female. [11:31] Then what we're going to do is we will [11:33] rank [11:35] the males and the females. [11:37] Okay? So, we're going to rank 10 players [11:40] into five, [11:42] four, [11:43] three, [11:45] two, one. [11:47] Five, four, three, [11:50] two, one, okay? And so, how do we rank [11:53] them? Well, we rank them according to [11:55] their attractiveness using three [11:58] criteria. [11:59] Uh the first is genes. [12:02] The second is wealth. [12:06] And the third is status. [12:09] Okay? So, genes is very simple. It means [12:12] that you're good-looking. [12:14] It means you're tall. It means you're [12:16] healthy. You you will live a long time, [12:18] okay? Genes is pretty simple to [12:21] understand. [12:22] Wealth just means that you and your [12:24] family have a lot of money. [12:26] Status means that you have a lot of [12:28] friends. You have a high-status job. [12:32] You come from a really [12:34] powerful family, okay? [12:36] So, these are the three criteria that we [12:39] can use to judge a person's [12:41] attractiveness. [12:42] And then what we can do is rank them [12:45] from five to one. Five means really the [12:48] best. One means [12:51] the worst, okay? And we can rank all 10 [12:55] uh according to these metrics. [12:59] So, [13:01] according to [13:03] biology, what we call evolutionary [13:04] biology or evolutionary psychology, [13:08] we're always trying to find the best [13:11] genes to procreate because this ensures [13:14] that our genes pass on. [13:16] Okay? [13:18] So, [13:19] um remember that men have a penis, which [13:22] they can stick into anything. Women have [13:25] to give birth, so their strategies are [13:26] different, okay? So, basically, five, [13:29] number five, is trying to have sex with [13:32] all [13:34] five women, right? [13:36] That's his strategy. [13:39] Um [13:41] Now, but female number five wants to [13:44] ensure that [13:47] she only gets five. [13:49] Okay? So, these are [13:51] different strategies. [13:52] And [13:54] uh [13:55] If this If according to evolutionary [13:57] psychology, all five of these females [14:00] should try to procreate [14:03] with number five, okay? But we know you [14:06] can't do this. It's suicidal. [14:10] Why is it suicidal? Because [14:13] the human race couldn't survive, right? [14:15] It'd be idiotic to do something like [14:17] this, where all five women are just [14:20] trying to marry this one guy. It may be [14:22] him, okay? But these three are [14:24] eliminated. [14:26] Because then your society would [14:27] collapse. [14:28] You wouldn't you could not have that [14:29] many children. [14:30] So, this can't possibly be true, right? [14:34] So, let's figure out what rationally [14:37] what should happen. [14:39] Okay? [14:42] All right. [14:43] So, let's think about this rationally. [14:46] >> [snorts] [14:47] >> Or from an economics perspective. All [14:49] right. [14:50] So, again, number five, [14:53] he's trying to maximize [14:56] the game. [14:57] So, he's trying to sleep with all five [14:59] women, okay? [15:01] The problem if he does that is [15:05] these five know they're all being [15:06] played. [15:08] And they recognize that this guy is [15:10] probably an So, five, [15:14] the best woman is like, "You know what? [15:16] There's not much of a difference between [15:18] four and five, so I'll just go marry [15:19] this guy." [15:20] Right? So, number four is gone. [15:23] And then number four is like, "You know [15:24] what? [15:27] Five is probably making a good decision, [15:29] so I'll just go marry number three." [15:31] Right? [15:32] And then [15:34] what happens now is that five, by trying [15:37] to [15:39] marry all the women, is stuck with the [15:41] worst choice. [15:43] Right? [15:46] So, that's kind of stupid for him. He's [15:47] stuck with number one. [15:49] But guess what? If any of these guys try [15:52] this crap, the same thing happens to [15:54] him, where four is like, "You know what? [15:56] I I can't get five, but I'll but I'll [15:59] try to get four and three together." And [16:00] then three is like, "Screw you. I'm [16:02] going to I'm going to go and marry two." [16:04] Four is going to marry three, okay? Then [16:05] he's stuck with one as well. [16:07] Or he's just alone. [16:10] So, if they try to individually [16:14] maximize their outcome, they all get [16:15] screwed in the end. So, the only way out [16:18] out of this [16:20] is that they cooperate, okay? And the [16:22] best way to cooperate is basically five [16:24] is like, "You know what? Screw this. I'm [16:27] not going to go after four or three. [16:29] I'll just I'll just have number five, [16:30] okay?" [16:34] All right? [16:35] Four is like, "Yeah, I'll just go marry [16:37] four. No dating. [16:39] No games. [16:41] I'll just go marry four. And three [16:43] marries three, two marries two, and one [16:46] marries one, okay? And the world now is [16:48] perfect. [16:50] Everyone has a husband and a wife. And [16:53] they can now just have children, and the [16:55] world is perfect. And this is actually [16:57] the best [16:59] strategy [17:00] for all the players, right? We call this [17:03] The word in game theory we call we use [17:05] for this is called the Nash equilibrium. [17:14] Okay? Nash equilibrium just means that [17:16] you always reach a state in which all [17:18] the players maximize their outcome, the [17:22] Nash equilibrium. [17:25] And so, the world makes sense now. [17:28] There's a problem with this, though. [17:30] The problem is [17:32] in real life, [17:34] no one does this. [17:36] Okay? In real life, [17:39] no one actually follows this rule. Nash [17:43] equilibrium is just a theory we made up. [17:46] But in real life, that's just not what [17:48] happens. [17:50] What happens in real life is [17:53] we choose to be suicidal. [17:57] Okay? [18:09] So, let me tell you about a game I [18:11] played. [18:12] So, last year I was teaching this class, [18:14] and I asked the boys and I asked the [18:15] girls, "Pretend you're now 30 years old. [18:18] Right? Your parents are pressuring you [18:20] to get married. [18:22] And you've been on the dating market for [18:24] 10 years. There's really no one that you [18:27] think is perfect for you. You've You've [18:29] You've have basically given up on love. [18:32] Imagine [18:34] that you want to get married now. And [18:36] tell me what is the minimum requirement [18:41] you need in order to agree to marry [18:44] someone else." [18:46] Okay? What's the minimum, okay? [18:48] And then I had the boys and the girls [18:49] write down their response. [18:51] The boys were pretty simple, right? [18:54] Well, you know, as long as she likes me, [18:57] and as long as I can put my penis into [19:00] her, I'm good, okay? It's that simple, [19:03] okay? [19:04] It really is. Guys are like, [19:07] "Yeah, I'll settle for anything." [19:10] That's the that's the boys, right? [19:12] Girls were different. [19:15] Girls were like, "Okay. [19:17] If I don't love him, [19:19] if I'm not even attracted to him, I need [19:22] about a million dollars a month." [19:25] Really? Oh my god. Yeah. I need about a [19:28] million dollars. Last class. [19:30] Last semester. Okay. All right. So, [19:33] >> [laughter] [19:34] >> this makes no sense, right? So, in [19:37] theory, [19:39] And this guy in theory, we should follow [19:42] the Nash equilibrium. But in real life, [19:44] what happens is this. All the girls want [19:49] this one guy. [19:52] Okay? It may be number four. Let's have [19:53] them for number four. But three, two, [19:55] one, they don't want. [19:57] And we know because just look at the [20:00] world around you. Look at these [20:02] billionaires, right? Like Elon Musk. How [20:03] many wives does does he have? [20:06] How many children does he have? [20:08] Right? [20:09] All the women in the world, many, not [20:11] all, but many just want to marry actors [20:15] like Brad Pitt. [20:17] Billionaires like Elon Musk. [20:20] Right? [20:22] And three, two, and one, [20:25] they What do they do? Well, they watch [20:27] Netflix, they watch porn, they play [20:29] video games. They give up on life, okay? [20:30] They're like, "We don't care." [20:32] We call these people incels, right? [20:36] Involuntary celibates because basically [20:38] they give up give up on life and life [20:40] has given up on them. [20:42] So, this entire competition is between [20:44] number five and four for all the women [20:47] in the world. [20:48] And this is [20:50] suicidal. This will lead to the death of [20:53] humanity. [20:56] And the question now is, [20:58] okay, [20:59] why are we suicidal? [21:03] And [21:04] so, [21:06] let's look at game theory analysis, [21:08] right? The players, the rules, and [21:11] incentives. We don't We know what the [21:12] players are. The players are doing [21:13] stupid things. [21:15] The rules we know, okay? But incentives [21:19] is something that we have to think [21:20] about. Why they behave like this? And [21:23] the answer is [21:25] because they're not interested in sex [21:28] or procreation. [21:30] What they're interested in is status. [21:35] Okay? That's the game they play, status. [21:39] I don't want to marry someone have [21:42] children. I don't marry someone so I can [21:44] take a picture of her and post it on [21:46] Instagram so I can get a lot of likes. [21:49] I want to marry someone so I can walk [21:51] with her in the mall and all the guys [21:52] are jealous. [21:54] I want to marry someone who I can brag [21:56] about. [21:57] Okay? It's It's a game about status, not [22:01] a game about sex or procreation. Do you [22:04] understand? They're not People are not [22:05] being rational here. [22:07] People are trying to maximize their [22:09] status in life. And that's why [22:12] everyone's behaving like this. [22:15] Number [22:16] She may be the ugliest woman in the [22:18] world, but she's still like, "You know [22:19] what? It's still my choice whether I [22:21] have kids. And having kids is a pain in [22:22] the ass." [22:23] So, if I'm If I'm going to make the [22:24] sacrifice, this guy better be [22:27] good-looking. [22:28] Okay? Or this guy better be rich. [22:31] Otherwise, why would I want to have [22:33] kids? [22:34] Okay? [22:36] So, this is why people behave the way [22:40] they do. If you think about this way, [22:42] what you recognize is that people are [22:45] rational. [22:47] But to understand why they're rational, [22:49] you have to figure out what the game is. [22:53] Okay? [22:57] But then this leads to us to a question, [22:59] which is, okay, well, clearly this is [23:01] wrong because if we behave like this [23:03] throughout human history, we wouldn't be [23:05] here today. [23:07] Okay? How is it that we have this game [23:10] today [23:11] and we're going to die, but we we must [23:14] have come from somewhere. We've been [23:15] around for like a long time. So, how is [23:17] it that humans have survived for so long [23:20] doing these stupid things? [23:21] And the answer is this a game changes [23:25] over time according to the [23:27] superstructure of society. [23:29] Okay, the superstructure. [23:38] The superstructure is what determines [23:40] the nature of the game. Superstructure, [23:42] just think about the big picture, right? [23:45] How many people are there? [23:48] Is the society wealthy or poor? [23:51] Are there enemies to the society? Okay? [23:53] This is the superstructure, the big [23:55] picture. Demographics, economics, [23:58] culture, politics, religion. [24:00] And these things together is what [24:02] determines the nature of the game. [24:07] All right, so let's look at three [24:08] examples of superstructure. [24:14] All right. [24:16] Um example one is you have a low [24:19] population [24:21] society, okay? Low population is like [24:22] maybe 200 people, 300 people, okay? A [24:25] village, basically. [24:27] They are poor. [24:30] And [24:32] um [24:33] low technology. Low technologies means [24:36] they don't have access to clean water. [24:38] They don't know what hygiene is. They [24:40] don't understand what germs are. So, [24:41] it's very easy for a woman to die in [24:44] childbirth. [24:46] Okay? [24:47] And um low competition. [24:51] Low competition just means that [24:54] there are no competing villages against [24:55] them. [24:56] Okay? So, that's one kind of [24:57] superstructure. [24:59] The earliest superstructure of human [25:00] society, okay? [25:02] Then you have maybe growing population. [25:06] Okay? So, maybe we're talking like maybe [25:08] 10,000 people, 20,000 people. [25:10] They are now growing in wealth, growing [25:13] wealth. [25:16] Um they have some technology, meaning [25:19] they have access to clean water, [25:21] and they have high competition. [25:23] Okay? [25:25] Meaning that they're competing against [25:26] different villages and societies around [25:27] them. [25:28] Okay, that's another superstructure. [25:30] Now, the third superstructure is [25:32] overpopulation, [25:35] okay? Which is the world we live in [25:36] today, okay? Where in China you have a [25:38] billion people. That's a lot of people. [25:41] Um [25:43] too much wealth. [25:46] Okay? But with wealth you have [25:47] inequality, right? [25:50] And then you have high technology. This [25:52] high technology just means that every [25:54] woman who gives birth will not die. And [25:57] every child born will live on will live, [25:59] okay? [26:00] And then you have a something called an [26:02] equilibrium. [26:03] Equilibrium just means that yeah, [26:05] there's competition, but they're not [26:07] going to go to war against each other. [26:08] The world is basically peaceful. [26:11] Okay? [26:12] And according to superstructure, [26:15] the game is going to change. [26:18] So, let's go back to the game, okay? We [26:19] have [26:21] 10 people. [26:24] In a low population poor society, guess [26:27] what? They're not going to date. [26:29] What they're going to do is they might [26:31] get married, but they're going to have [26:32] sex with each other. [26:34] Why? Because as a woman, [26:37] the only way to ensure that your child [26:39] survives is if all the men in the [26:41] village [26:43] want to [26:45] protect and nurture the child. [26:47] And they will do that if they believe [26:49] that the child could be theirs, okay? [26:53] So, the woman will maybe have a husband, [26:56] but the woman will also choose to sleep [26:57] with other men to disguise paternity. [27:01] Does that make sense? So, there's no [27:02] dating, there's just lots and lots of [27:04] sex in order to maintain social [27:07] political cohesion, okay? [27:09] Now, in a superstructure number two, [27:15] there's no dating either. [27:16] Why? Because this society is in [27:18] competition with other societies, and [27:20] they need to have as many children as [27:21] possible. So, what the the solution here [27:24] is to have arranged marriages. [27:27] Arranged marriages. [27:29] Where, [27:31] you know, who cares who you marry? Just [27:33] have lots and lots of kids, okay? [27:35] There's no dating either. Just have lots [27:36] and lots of kids. You marry who your [27:38] parents tell you to marry. You marry [27:39] someone that you know. You marry your [27:41] childhood best friend. Who cares, okay? [27:42] But you marry someone, you have lots and [27:44] lots of kids. [27:45] Okay? That's superstructure number two. [27:48] Superstructure number three is the one [27:49] we live in. And here you have a dating [27:52] game. [27:53] Right? Because why? [27:55] Because [27:57] the odds of you obtaining status is [28:00] really, really low, okay? And the only [28:03] way that you can change your status is [28:06] by marrying up. [28:09] >> [clears throat] [28:10] >> And that's why you have a dating game. A [28:12] dating game is opportunity for you to [28:13] find someone better than your social [28:16] demographic circumstance can suggest. [28:21] Okay? [28:22] And that's why you have [28:25] low [28:26] uh decreasing [28:29] uh fertility rate. [28:33] Okay? Where over time, because of the [28:35] dating game, [28:38] society will collapse. [28:41] Okay? Does that make sense? [28:44] All right. [28:46] So, now you're the government, [28:49] and all around the world, [28:51] women who are wealthy, well-educated, [28:55] are refusing to have children, [28:57] especially in East Asia. [29:00] Right now, the fertility rate in China [29:01] is about one. [29:04] Okay? About one. The replacement rate [29:06] that you need is a 2.1. So, just to [29:09] maintain your current population levels, [29:12] every woman in China needs to give birth [29:14] to at least two [29:16] kids. [29:17] But right now, on average, women are [29:20] choosing to have one kid only in China. [29:22] And the worst thing is that this trend [29:26] is [29:27] increasing. So, five years ago, the [29:30] fertility rate was maybe 1.7. [29:32] Now it's one. Okay, so the trend is [29:35] very, very negative. Okay? So, [29:40] governments all around the world are [29:42] trying to figure out [29:44] what [29:45] to do. [29:47] How do you [29:49] convince [29:51] woman to have more kids? [29:55] And what we've discovered is [29:58] it's impossible. [30:00] We can pay you more money, like they do [30:02] in South Korea. Guess what? It doesn't [30:04] work. [30:05] Because people don't want money, they [30:06] want status. And status is a zero-sum [30:08] game. [30:09] Okay? [30:10] Money is infinite, but status, power, is [30:13] a zero-sum game. [30:15] So, we have overpopulation, we have too [30:18] many people competing for two status too [30:20] few status positions. [30:21] You have decreasing [30:24] fertility rate. And there's nothing you [30:26] can do about it. The moment you give [30:29] woman choice, [30:31] they choose to improve their lives by [30:34] marrying someone better. [30:38] Okay? Not all, but most. And so, over [30:40] time, what happens is your society [30:43] collapses. [30:45] If you look at history, the best [30:46] indicator that a society is about to [30:49] collapse is if the woman who are wealthy [30:52] and well-educated, if they refuse to [30:53] have children. This is the same This is [30:55] what happened to the Romans, who [30:57] collapsed. This is what happened um to [31:00] many empires. This is what's happening [31:01] around the world today, in America, in [31:03] Britain, in Europe, in China. [31:06] Okay? And this tells us that society is [31:09] collapsing. So, in other words, [31:12] what this really is, okay? These [31:15] superstructures, [31:17] it tells us [31:19] the life cycle of a civilization. [31:23] Right? [31:25] So, this is when you when civilization [31:28] is young, [31:29] then it mature, it grows, [31:32] and then it [31:34] collapses. [31:38] Okay? [31:40] And if you look at history, all [31:42] civilizations go through this process of [31:46] birth, [31:48] maturation, and then collapse. [31:51] And there's no way around it. [31:54] So, the power of game theory is that [31:56] just by studying one aspect, okay? If I [31:59] just start studying this game, [32:01] all right? I figure out who the players [32:02] are, the rules, and incentives, I figure [32:05] out what the superstructure [32:08] of the civilization is, okay? And then [32:10] once I have these two, I can now [32:13] figure out where it came from and where [32:16] it's going. [32:18] Okay? [32:22] That's what I want to teach you in this [32:24] class. [32:26] How to analyze a situation [32:28] so you understand the players, the [32:30] rules, and incentives, which will give [32:32] you insight into superstructure, [32:34] so that you can figure out where it came [32:36] from, and then you you can also predict [32:38] where it's going. [32:41] All right? [32:43] So, but you can also look at the [32:44] superstructure and figure out what the [32:46] game is being played. [32:51] Okay, so this is one example, but but [32:53] throughout the semester we'll be doing [32:54] many many [32:55] many different examples of game theory. [32:58] Is this clear so far? [33:01] Any questions? [33:04] Any comments, any questions before I [33:05] move on? [33:08] All right. [33:12] All right. [33:15] All right, so let's just look at some [33:16] basic [33:19] >> [clears throat] [33:19] >> facts. [33:20] Okay? [33:25] All right, so [33:26] All right, this is a map of the world, [33:28] okay? [33:30] As you can see, okay, uh sorry. So, the [33:34] color scheme is this. [33:35] The red [33:37] is where the population [33:40] uh the society has an above replacement [33:42] fertility rate, okay? So, above 2.1. [33:45] If it's dark red, like here in the [33:47] middle of Africa, it's six to seven, or [33:49] six above, okay? And why why is it that [33:51] the case? Because Africa is in this in [33:53] this situation where it's a growing [33:55] society with middling tech, so a lot of [33:58] people die, lots of competition, so to [34:01] survive, families have to give birth to [34:03] a lot of kids, okay? They have no choice [34:04] in the matter. [34:06] But then you move to the rest of the [34:07] world, okay? So, this is um North [34:10] America, Europe, and East Asia, the [34:13] three wealthiest parts of the world. And [34:15] guess what? The fertility rate is [34:17] collapsing, because now we've entered [34:19] the end game, where it is [34:21] overpopulation, too much wealth, so too [34:23] much inequality, [34:25] and so woman are forced to pick the best [34:27] possible mate, or not have children at [34:29] all. [34:30] All right? And here, the situation is [34:33] very very dire. North America and Europe [34:35] are kind of okay. Why? Because of [34:37] immigration. [34:39] Because even though their woman are not [34:40] having children, they can choose to [34:42] import [34:44] people for their labor force. [34:47] But East Asia is really really screwed, [34:53] guys, okay? So, just look at this [34:54] region. [34:58] Okay. So, China is one, but the worst is [35:02] North Korea. Uh sorry, South Korea. [35:05] South Korea has the lowest population [35:08] uh rate in Sorry, the lowest fertility [35:10] rate in the world. They're at at between [35:12] 0.6 to 0.8. So, they'll probably gone in [35:15] 50 years' time. It's so bad that when [35:18] you go to South Korea, they have signs [35:20] outside restaurants that says, "No dogs [35:23] and no kids." [35:25] They think that kids are problem. [35:28] Okay? So, [35:30] you look at the these areas, [35:32] again, they are poorer, so woman are [35:35] forced to have more children in order to [35:37] survive. [35:39] Okay? But you look at wealthy areas, [35:42] well, they'll probably gone in 100 [35:44] years' time. [35:46] And you it's total [35:47] total collapse. [35:50] The solution that governments are [35:52] choosing right now is to import [35:56] immigrants. [35:58] Okay? [35:59] Especially So, these are the trends [36:01] right now. [36:02] And it's causing a lot of disruption in [36:03] society, because guess what, guys? [36:06] People don't like outsiders. People [36:08] don't like immigrants. [36:10] But they don't have a choice in the [36:11] matter, because along with the fertility [36:14] crisis, [36:15] is the aging crisis, where your [36:17] population is getting older and older. [36:20] Okay? [36:21] So, [36:23] life The world is not that simple. If [36:25] you want to know who will rule the world [36:27] in your 100 years' time, just figure out [36:29] which society In which society do [36:33] wealthy, well-educated woman choose to [36:36] have children? And then that society [36:38] will rule the world. [36:39] Okay? It's that simple, right? [36:42] >> [snorts] [36:42] >> Well, unfortunately, if you do it that [36:44] way, [36:45] you get a really really disturbing [36:48] answer. [36:49] Okay? So, this is [36:52] per capita G uh [36:55] GDP, okay? So, how much people make. [36:58] All right? So, obviously, if you're [37:00] zero, you're very poor, and [37:03] um if you move to over here, you're very [37:05] wealthy, okay? So, the United States [37:07] is the wealthiest society in the world, [37:09] right? Sure, we can understand that. [37:12] Then this is the fertility rate, which [37:14] tells us how many children woman have on [37:19] average. Okay? So, again, 2.1 [37:23] is replacement rate, okay? 2.1 is [37:25] replacement rate. The United States is [37:26] actually below replacement rate, but the [37:28] United States doesn't really care, [37:29] because they can import immigrants. [37:31] Okay? [37:32] Um [37:33] China is probably around here somewhere [37:37] somewhere, okay? [37:39] Um [37:40] Angola is up here, but it's poor. So, [37:44] what this map tells us is a country that [37:46] is most likely to be dominant for the [37:48] next 50 years is [37:52] this country. [37:53] Israel. [37:54] Okay? It It is the only wealthy, [37:57] Western, high-tech society in which [38:02] woman choose to have more than two kids. [38:09] Okay, this is what game theory teaches [38:11] us. And yeah, I know there are people [38:12] like, "Yeah, but Israel, it's um it has [38:16] 9 million people. [38:19] And um it's in the middle of a desert. [38:22] And everyone hates Israel." I understand [38:24] that. Thank you very much, okay? [38:26] I understand that. [38:28] But if you just analyze how the game [38:30] works, [38:32] okay? If you just look at it [38:34] objectively, [38:36] from a game theory perspective, you are [38:38] forced to conclude that Israel, right [38:40] now, has the major advantage over [38:42] everyone else. Now, [38:44] it is possible that societies will [38:47] change their fertility rate as the [38:49] the world changes, okay? But I'm saying [38:52] that, given the current state of of [38:54] things, Israel, their growth trajectory [38:58] trajectory is very very high. [39:01] But then the question then is, "Okay, [39:05] why is it that Israel, [39:08] they are different from everyone else?" [39:12] And the answer is [39:15] because the world hates them. [39:16] Okay? Because they think they are [39:18] different from everyone else, [39:21] and [39:22] they must unite together to survive. [39:26] So, in Israel, fertility [39:29] is status. [39:32] Okay? [39:34] If you are a woman and you give birth to [39:36] a lot of kids, that means that you love [39:39] Israel. That means that you are doing [39:42] what you can in this war [39:45] for survival. [39:47] It means you are a patriot. [39:49] Okay? [39:51] Um but this has to do with religion. [39:55] So, [39:57] what the West has done is not only [40:01] um has it created dating game where [40:03] where women can choose to have kids, but [40:05] the Western world has also given up our [40:07] religion and embraced materialism. [40:10] Right? [40:12] So, what is valued [40:14] in our world, in the West, it's not [40:18] patriotism [40:20] or love of family [40:22] or religious duty. It's just [40:25] how many Instagram followers you have. [40:27] It's how many YouTube subscribers you [40:28] have. It's how many [40:31] how much money you have. Okay? That's [40:33] all that matters. [40:35] So, given the current state of events, [40:38] it's very hard for the Western world and [40:43] really for China to survive next for [40:45] next 50 years, okay? All right. And I [40:47] know like, "Well, China has a billion [40:49] people, so even though [40:52] um [40:54] you know, we're only giving birth to 10 [40:56] million kids a year, we're still we'll [40:58] still be around for a long, long time, [40:59] okay?" So, at this rate, by 2100, [41:03] China will be at will be at a population [41:05] of 600 million. That's still a lot of [41:06] people, man. [41:09] Um okay. [41:12] Here's the problem, though. [41:14] Okay. There's a South Korea. Okay, South [41:16] Korea is like the worst-case scenario. [41:18] And for South Korea, this is actually [41:20] the best-case scenario where, "Okay, [41:22] given current trends, and let's let's [41:24] just pretend that nothing bad happens to [41:26] South South Korea. Well, by the year [41:28] 2100, you'll you'll have a situation [41:30] like this where the vast majority of [41:32] people are over 65, and you have no [41:35] kids, okay?" [41:37] That is a zombie society where no one [41:40] works, and everyone just [41:42] I don't know, walks around the park [41:44] every day. [41:45] No one works, so the economy has [41:47] collapsed. [41:48] Okay? So, look look look look at this [41:49] trend where we are now in here, okay? [41:53] Where where the majority is still a [41:55] working population, which is good. You [41:57] need that for the economy. But by the [41:59] time you hit 2040, [42:01] okay, you've got this huge dependency [42:03] and a Korean population, okay? You you [42:05] you guys see this? Where we are? [42:08] In um okay, so we're 2020, right? Okay. [42:12] All right, so it's still not too bad. [42:15] But by the time you hit 2040, look at [42:17] this. [42:17] Okay? Look at this Look at this where [42:19] you have actually no kids, and then you [42:22] have lots and lots of retirees. [42:24] Okay? [42:25] And then by the time you hit 2060, oh my [42:28] god. [42:30] Right? [42:32] Your population your working population [42:34] has decreased by half by 50%. [42:39] All right? [42:41] So, [42:42] if things are stay the same, if nothing [42:45] happens, [42:46] South Korea will be will be dead in I [42:49] don't know, by [42:52] 20 [42:54] 150, okay? Best-case scenario. [42:57] But what we know from history is that [43:00] societies do not die naturally. [43:02] Eventually, South Korea will be forced [43:05] into wars, into economic crises. So, [43:08] this trend will just increase. And so, [43:12] if North Korea got got past 2080, I'd be [43:15] very surprised, okay? I'd be surprised [43:18] by 2040 [43:20] South Korea were to face collapse as a [43:23] nation-state. [43:25] Okay? Because you need these people to [43:28] work, but guess what? You also need them [43:29] to fight wars. So, if North Korea ever [43:31] threatens South Korea, [43:32] most of your [43:34] adult population will be dead. [43:37] Okay? [43:38] So, South Korea can't fight a war now. [43:42] The prospects for South Korea is utterly [43:44] hopeless. There's nothing South Korea [43:46] can do about this [43:48] because [43:50] South Korea is extremely materialistic [43:52] society where [43:55] the only way only way only way to get [43:56] ahead is by making a lot of money, okay? [44:00] And if you were a middle-class person in [44:02] South Korea, it makes no sense for you [44:05] to have three kids. It makes sense for [44:06] you to have one kid and put all your [44:08] resources into this one kid in the hopes [44:11] that he passes the college examination, [44:14] gets into a good university, and then [44:15] gets a good job at Samsung, which is the [44:17] only company in South Korea, okay? [44:19] Samsung. [44:21] All right, so the situation is pretty [44:22] dire in South Korea. [44:27] All right. [44:28] Okay, that's it for [44:32] today. Any questions, guys, about what [44:34] we've learned? [44:36] Okay. [44:39] Okay. [44:41] Yeah. Speaking of Mike, please. [44:43] >> So so for the last graph that uh we [44:46] talked about Israel, and I've noticed [44:49] that the Saudi Arabia that is also like [44:53] uh at uh half [44:55] not bad [44:56] GDP per capita and fertility rates. So, [45:00] but for Saudi Arabia, maybe I'm wrong [45:02] like uh stereotypically that they didn't [45:05] receive uh much hate as Israel did. So, [45:08] so why did they like at the similar [45:11] position as Israel? Okay. [45:13] That's actually a really good question. [45:15] >> Okay. All right. [45:17] So, [45:18] South Saudi Arabia, as you see from this [45:21] map, has it's a very wealthy society. [45:26] Um and families have about four kids on [45:30] on average. All right, so South Saudi [45:32] Arabia it it's actually an outlier. And [45:34] the reason why is that it gets all its [45:36] money from oil oil revenues, okay? So, [45:39] it sells its oil around the world. What [45:40] what does it do? [45:42] It creates a welfare state using this [45:43] oil. [45:45] Um so, you're incentivized to have [45:49] um [45:49] many children as possible because the [45:51] government will pay for it. Free [45:52] schooling, free health care, free [45:54] housing, and then a guaranteed job. [45:57] So, it's basically like socialism. [45:59] Uh it's also a Muslim country, so you [46:01] have this religious duty imperative to [46:03] have have as many children as possible. [46:06] Okay? But the problem with Saudi Arabia [46:08] is the idea of human capital. [46:12] Where it is not really a moral society [46:16] in which people are well-educated, and [46:19] they're contributing to the to the [46:20] economy, okay? Saudi Arabia just gets [46:22] just gets all its money from oil, and [46:24] that's it. It's trying to grow ter- [46:26] terrorism. It's trying to develop its uh [46:29] human capital. [46:31] But it doesn't really work, okay? So, so [46:33] you're right in that Saudi Arabia [46:36] um it is [46:38] uh it seems to be doing well, but it's [46:40] not really, okay? [46:42] Um but also like people will argue about [46:45] Israel as well. We're like, "Well, [46:46] Israel gets all its money from the [46:48] United States, and it's the American [46:50] military that supports Israel." [46:52] Um that's true to a certain extent, but [46:54] I would argue that if you actually go to [46:55] Israel, you will see that it's an open, [46:58] dynamic society in which you're allowed [47:00] to ask questions, which you're allowed [47:02] to criticize the government, [47:03] uh in which you are given a lots of [47:06] opportunities for social mobility, okay? [47:08] So, Israel has democracy. [47:12] It has uh innovation, okay? It has [47:16] um [47:18] um technology. [47:21] Okay? And Saudi Arabia doesn't have [47:24] these things. If you want to be a really [47:26] strong nation, then you need innovation, [47:28] you need openness, you need you need [47:30] technology, okay? It's also um really [47:32] highly educated. [47:34] All right? Okay, does that make sense? [47:36] Okay, so Saudi Arabia is really an [47:39] outlier here. [47:41] All right, but the problem is what [47:42] happens if [47:44] uh Saudi Saudi Arabia runs out of oil, [47:46] right? Or there's a war in the Middle [47:48] East. Then Saudi Arabia is kind of [47:49] screwed. [47:50] All right. [47:53] All right. But you can also argue, "No, [47:54] well, you know, Saudi Arabia it has a [47:56] lot of money, and maybe okay." So, so [48:00] game theory doesn't give us the answers. [48:02] Game theory we it just gives us a guide [48:05] to ask questions and do research, okay? [48:08] Does that make sense? [48:09] Uh yeah. Um I have a question about [48:14] Uh I have a question about [48:16] like when is this data? It's it's rows [48:19] about 2009, right? So, how about now? [48:23] Did it change a lot? Or like is there [48:26] anything changed? [48:28] Um Okay. Okay, yeah. [48:32] So, you asked you asked about the [48:34] sourcing of the data. [48:36] Okay? And you're right in that there [48:38] there will be fluctuation, okay? [48:40] But the um [48:43] But this is 2024, okay? 2024, [48:47] and this is [48:50] Israel right here. [48:51] Okay? [48:53] All right. So, if it's red, it's above [48:55] replacement. [48:57] All right. And if you just Google [48:59] Israel population fertility rate, [49:02] Israel is the only wealthy nation in the [49:04] world that has an above-replacement [49:07] fertility rate, okay? [49:10] All right. [49:13] >> [snorts] [49:14] >> Okay? [clears throat] [49:16] Any any more questions, guys? [49:21] All right, great. So, I will see you [49:23] guys next class.