Burry, Dalio Predict AI Crash as 15-Year Track Record Punishes Bears

Joseph Carlson After Hours

Investors who heed crash warnings from Michael Burry and Ray Dalio risk missing sustained market compounding, as tech giants funding AI boast robust cash flows and modest valuations that defy dot-com bubble comparisons.

AI-assisted summary of The AI Bubble Is Popping — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-10-08

Key ideas

Michael Burry and Ray Dalio issued simultaneous market crash warnings, with Burry projecting a 2000- or 2008-scale downturn within 6 to 9 months and Dalio warning that rising interest rates and heavy AI capital inflows will force the AI bubble to pop. (0:00)
A 15-year historical review shows that acting on Dalio's and Burry's post-2008 macro warnings would have severely damaged portfolio returns—causing investors to miss a 32% S&P 500 surge in 2013, a 31.49% rally in 2019, and a 27% rebound in 2023. (10:31)
Over the 19 calendar years from 2007 to 2025, the US stock market finished negative in only 3 years and closed positive in 16, heavily favoring Warren Buffett's strategy of consistent S&P 500 dollar-cost averaging over macro market timing. (12:01)
Unlike the unprofitable companies of the 2000 dot-com bubble that traded at 50 to 80 forward P/E multiples, today's AI capex leaders are highly profitable cash machines trading at grounded valuations—including Alphabet (~24 P/E), Meta (~22 P/E), Amazon (~25 forward P/E), and Microsoft (~25 forward P/E). (16:25)

Detailed notes

## Background Published on YouTube on October 8, 2026, by the channel Joseph Carlson After Hours, this video is hosted by Joseph Carlson, a former senior-level programmer turned full-time content creator and amateur investor. In the video description, Carlson promotes his stock analysis platform, Qualtrim, shares links to his growth and dividend portfolios, and outlines his philosophy of transparently investing in high-quality, long-term "compounder" businesses.

## TL;DR Prompted by simultaneous warnings of an impending market crash and AI bubble burst from famed 2008 bears Michael Burry and Ray Dalio, Joseph Carlson conducts a 15-year audit of both investors' public track records from 2007 to 2026. By mapping their recurring bearish calls against actual S&P 500 performance, he shows that heeding their warnings would have caused investors to miss massive market rallies—including a 32% surge in 2013, a 31.49% gain in 2019, and a 27% recovery in 2023—while also noting painful losses in several of Burry's individual stock and short positions. Drawing on principles from Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, Carlson argues against market timing and points out that today's AI spending is driven by cash-generative mega-cap leaders—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—trading at grounded P/E multiples between 22 and 25 rather than dot-com bubble valuations. He concludes the episode by recounting his recent 45-minute guest appearance on Steve Eisman's Substack show, *The Steve Eisman Playbook*, where he defended his bullish tech and agentic commerce thesis in front of a deeply AI-skeptical audience.

## Atmosphere & style The episode carries a calm, analytical, and reassuringly pragmatic tone, leavened with dry humor as Carlson demystifies the aura surrounding billionaire macro gurus. The narrative arc moves from acknowledging the natural anxiety long-term investors feel when confronted with high-profile doom calls to methodically dismantling that fear through a sober, year-by-year review of historical data. Watching the video feels like sitting down with a level-headed peer who cuts through financial media panic with empirical discipline, before shifting into an energized, full-circle moment of pride as he reflects on debating *Big Short* legend Steve Eisman in the "lion's den."

## Bulletin - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=0s) Michael Burry and Ray Dalio issued simultaneous market crash warnings, with Burry projecting a 2000- or 2008-scale downturn within 6 to 9 months and Dalio warning that rising interest rates and heavy AI capital inflows will force the AI bubble to pop. - [10:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=631s) A 15-year historical review shows that acting on Dalio's and Burry's post-2008 macro warnings would have severely damaged portfolio returns—causing investors to miss a 32% S&P 500 surge in 2013, a 31.49% rally in 2019, and a 27% rebound in 2023. - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=721s) Over the 19 calendar years from 2007 to 2025, the US stock market finished negative in only 3 years and closed positive in 16, heavily favoring Warren Buffett's strategy of consistent S&P 500 dollar-cost averaging over macro market timing. - [16:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=985s) Unlike the unprofitable companies of the 2000 dot-com bubble that traded at 50 to 80 forward P/E multiples, today's AI capex leaders are highly profitable cash machines trading at grounded valuations—including Alphabet (~24 P/E), Meta (~22 P/E), Amazon (~25 forward P/E), and Microsoft (~25 forward P/E).

## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=0s) Michael Burry (posting on X as Cassandra) warned that the stock market is in the first stage of grief and denial, predicting a collapse on the scale of 2000 and 2008 within 6 to 9 months. - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=0s) In the same week, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that the AI bubble is nearing a bursting point as rising interest rates collide with massive capital inflows into AI companies. - [06:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=369s) While Ray Dalio and Bridgewater accurately predicted the 2007–2008 financial crisis and made a strong bullish call in 2011, Dalio made a major error in 2013 by forecasting ~4% annual equity returns over the next decade—underestimating actual returns by roughly fourfold. - [09:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=559s) Michael Burry's public warnings since 2019—including claims of a passive index investing bubble in 2019, a COVID selling stampede in 2020, and his infamous 'Sell' post in January 2023—have maintained a chronically bearish posture through major market rallies. - [10:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=631s) Investors who followed Dalio's bearish warnings in 2013, 2015, and 2016 or Burry's warnings in 2019 and early 2023 missed out on massive single-year S&P 500 gains, including +32% in 2013, +31.49% in 2019, and +27% in 2023. - [10:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=631s) Although both Dalio and Burry accurately flagged speculative froth in 2021 ahead of the 18% market drawdown in 2022, both remained overly pessimistic at the bottom and missed the subsequent 2023 recovery. - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=721s) Between 2007 and 2025, the US stock market finished negative in only 3 out of 19 calendar years, illustrating why persistent optimists and simple S&P 500 index investors outperform macro market timers. - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=721s) As Peter Lynch observed, far more money has been lost by investors attempting to anticipate and protect against market corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves. - [14:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=844s) Examining Michael Burry's individual public stock positions reveals an erratic track record, including heavy losses on Lululemon (down ~61%), an Nvidia short (down ~45%), and a Palantir short, alongside a modest ~17% gain on Adobe. - [16:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=985s) Today's mega-cap AI spenders—Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon—generate billions in daily free cash flow and trade at reasonable P/E multiples of 22 to 25, bearing no resemblance to the unprofitable 50–80x P/E companies of the 2000 dot-com bubble. - [16:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=985s) Long-term investors with a horizon beyond five years should treat standard 20% to 30% market drawdowns—which occur naturally every five to seven years—as buying opportunities rather than reasons to exit equities. - [18:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=1107s) Joseph Carlson appeared on Steve Eisman's Substack show, 'The Steve Eisman Playbook,' where he defended a bullish long-term tech thesis on Apple-Google partnerships and agentic commerce to an AI-skeptical audience.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=0s) Michael Burry and Ray Dalio Issue Simultaneous Crash Warnings

Michael Burry and Ray Dalio are two of the most famous investors of our era, largely because both correctly predicted the 2008 market crash and have commanded massive media attention ever since. Dalio runs Bridgewater, one of the largest—if not the very largest—hedge funds in the world, has authored best-selling books like *Principles*, and regularly appears on CNBC and writes posts that reach millions. Burry built an enduring aura of mystique after shorting the housing market in 2008 and being portrayed by "Batman himself" (Christian Bale) in *The Big Short*. Avoiding TV appearances like CNBC, Burry communicates strictly online—posting under the screen name "Cassandra" on X and writing a $50-per-month Substack that has become the second most popular finance Substack in the world, trailing only Citrini.

While both figures have been generally skeptical of the market over recent years, they just issued remarkably definitive, simultaneous warnings of an impending crash. On the 5th of the month, Burry posted on X under the name Cassandra: "The stock market is quite obviously in its first stage of grief and denial. Per 2000 and 2008, this stage will last 6 to 9 months." In short, Burry is predicting a market collapse on the exact scale of the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. In the very same week, Ray Dalio warned that the AI bubble is nearing a bursting point, arguing that rising interest rates colliding with massive capital inflows into AI companies will force the bubble to pop sooner rather than later—aligning closely with Burry's 6-to-9-month timeline.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Simultaneous Market Crash Warnings from Burry and Dalio subgraph Investors["High-Profile Bears"] MB["Michael Burry (Cassandra)"] RD["Ray Dalio (Bridgewater)"] end subgraph Theses["Current Warning Signals"] MBT["Market in stage 1 of grief & denial"] RDT["Rising interest rates + heavy AI capital inflows"] end subgraph Outcome["Predicted Outcome"] C["2000 / 2008 scale crash or AI bubble burst in 6-9 months"] end MB --> MBT RD --> RDT MBT --> C RDT --> C ```

[02:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=143s) Reviewing 15 Years of Credibility and Upcoming Episode Topics

Faced with two giant figures sounding the alarm at the exact same moment, Joseph decides to conduct an exhaustive, 15-year review of both investors' track records since the 2008 crash. Similar to a well-received retrospective he previously did on Ed Zitron's history, this analysis examines every major call and sentiment shift from Dalio and Burry to see when they were right, when they were wrong, and whether everyday investors should actually sell their stocks or prepare based on these signals.

Before diving into the timeline, Joseph notes a couple of other items on the agenda: - **Steve Eisman Interview:** Earlier in the week, Joseph was invited onto *The Steve Eisman Playbook* (Eisman's Substack show) for a full interview, and he plans to share the background story and his thoughts on how the conversation went later in the episode. - **Qualtrim Platform:** He briefly reminds viewers about `qualtrim.com` (available on iOS and Android), where members get access to the Qualtrim analysis suite, exclusive deep-dive videos, and a Discord community of thousands of investors where Joseph frequently chats about stocks.

[04:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=244s) The Long-Term Investor's Dilemma Against Billionaire Bears

Joseph frames the psychological tension of managing a portfolio for the next 10 to 20 years. On one hand, he is buying and holding world-class businesses like Google, Meta, ASML, S&P Global, and Netflix with a positive view that they will compound and make money over the next decade. On the other hand, someone like Ray Dalio steps up and warns that the market is going down and those exact AI-linked companies are in big trouble.

It is natural to feel nervous when confronted by these resumes. Dalio is a sharp dresser worth billions who runs a massive hedge fund and writes bestsellers—"he's smarter than all of us," Joseph jokes, so it feels like he must know something ordinary investors don't. Likewise, while trying to invest in growing, profitable companies, hearing Michael Burry—one of the very few people to pull off a dramatic, wildly successful short of the 2008 housing market—claim we are 6 to 9 months away from a 2000- or 2008-level crash forces any sensible investor to pause and ask whether they should genuinely be worried. To answer that fairly and without bias, Joseph maps out what would have happened if an investor had actually followed their historical claims year by year.

[06:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=369s) Ray Dalio's Historical Track Record (2007–2026)

Looking at the US market timeline starting in 2007, Joseph gives Dalio and Bridgewater full credit for their pre-crisis foresight. Ahead of the 2008 crash, Bridgewater correctly identified dangerous credit and asset price imbalances, positioned themselves very bearishly, and delivered phenomenal performance as the banking and credit deterioration unfolded in 2007 and 2008. Dalio remained bearish in 2009 (expecting an extended deleveraging), had insufficient public data in 2010 and 2012, and made another strong, well-timed call in 2011 by turning bullish and calling US equities comparatively cheap and well-supported by currency and capital flows.

However, in 2013, Dalio made one of his biggest errors of the past 15 years: turning bearish and forecasting disappointing equity returns of roughly 4% annually over the following decade—underestimating the actual market returns by a factor of around four ("Terrible, terrible call"). From there, Dalio's US market stance fluctuated frequently, leaning heavily toward macro warnings over the subsequent decade before arriving at his current 2026 warning on tightening AI funding conditions:

Turning to Michael Burry's timeline at the end of the segment, Joseph begins in 2007—Burry's best call by far—when he was a strong bear maintaining a powerful wager against subprime credit that anticipated wider financial damage.

[09:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=559s) The Mystique and Warning Track Record of Michael Burry

Michael Burry established his legendary reputation and aura of mystique from his famous bet against the mid-2000s subprime mortgage crisis, cementing his status as the investor who predicted the Great Financial Crisis. Around 2019, Burry became far more vocal publicly, taking to X (formerly Twitter) to share his macroeconomic views. He kicked off this phase by arguing that passive index investing had formed bubble-like structural vulnerabilities that could dramatically intensify selling pressure during a downturn. By 2020, as the COVID-19 crash unfolded, he reiterated these warnings, predicting a catastrophic selling stampede driven by the mechanical unwinding of passive index funds.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Investor Approaches Comparison accDescr: Flowchart contrasting macro market timing with dollar-cost averaging into index funds. subgraph Timing["Macro Market Timing"] A["Heed Perma-Bear Calls"] --> B["Exit Equities / Buy Shorts"] B --> C["Miss +20% to +30% Up Years"] C --> D["Net Underperformance"] end subgraph Compounding["Long-Term Compounding"] E["Dollar-Cost Average S&P 500"] --> F["Ignore Macro Noise"] F --> G["Absorb 5-7 Yr Drawdowns"] G --> H["Capture US Economic Growth"] end ```

Burry turned even more aggressively pessimistic heading into 2021, labeling the retail speculation across equities and cryptocurrencies as outright extreme and warning of catastrophic downside risk. While that particular warning proved prophetic—the speculative frenzy unraveled in 2022, driving an 18% drawdown in the broader market—Burry remained stubbornly bearish even after the bubble had popped. Throughout 2022 and into 2023, he repeatedly argued that equities had much further to fall, mapping out severe potential drops for the S&P 500. He punctuated this view in January 2023 with his infamous one-word post, "Sell," only to publicly retract it a couple of months later. That skepticism persisted unabated straight into 2025 and 2026. Across the board, Burry has maintained a consistently darker, more persistent bearish posture than even Ray Dalio.

- **2019 Warning**: Claimed passive index investing harbored bubble vulnerabilities that would amplify sell-offs. - **2020 Call**: Predicted a mechanical "selling stampede" during the COVID market crash. - **2021 Call**: Accurately called extreme equity and crypto speculation before the 2022 pop. - **January 2023 Call**: Posted "Sell" on X right before the market launched into a massive 27% rally, retracting the call months later. - **2025–2026**: Maintained a chronic bearish outlook despite strong ongoing equity performance.

---

[10:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=631s) The Staggering Cost of Being Bearish in a Secular Bull Market

Placing the public pronouncements of Ray Dalio and Michael Burry alongside actual historical market performance reveals the sheer danger of acting on macro doom calls. Between 2010 and 2017, every single bearish call proved detrimental to an investor's wealth, as the United States market engaged in an unrelenting bull run. When Ray Dalio issued warnings in 2013, 2015, and 2016, following his lead would have inflicted severe financial harm. An investor who liquidated their portfolio because of Dalio's caution in 2013 walked away right before a 32% market explosion, followed sequentially by compounding gains of 13%, 1.3%, 12%, and 21%.

| Year | Bearish Commentary / Call | Actual S&P 500 Outcome | Consequence of Following | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **2013** | Ray Dalio turns bearish / cautions on risk | **+32%** | Missed one of the best single-year rallies of the decade | | **2014–2017** | Periodic warnings from Dalio (2015, 2016) | **+13%, +1.3%, +12%, +21%** | Substantial compounding lost on the sidelines | | **2019** | Michael Burry warns of passive fund bubble | **+31.49%** | Exited during the absolute worst year to be short or out | | **2021** | Dalio & Burry warn of extreme speculation | **Market peaks**, then drops **-18%** in 2022 | Accurately called the froth, but stayed bearish at the bottom | | **2023** | Burry posts "Sell" in January; remains bearish | **+27%** | Missed the violent recovery off the 2022 lows | | **2024** | Dalio turns positive for one year | Strong market continuation | Temporary alignment after years of negative positioning |

As the bull run progressed, the timing of these warnings became even more punishing. Burry's bearish sounding of the alarm in 2019 arrived in a year when the S&P 500 surged by 31.49%—the absolute worst possible time to sit on the sidelines. While both investors correctly anticipated froth entering 2021 ahead of the 2022 decline of 18%, both remained deeply pessimistic at the trough. Consequently, they missed the dramatic 2023 surge of 27%. Outside of a brief window where Dalio turned constructive in 2024, their television commentary, X posts, and Substack writings have reliably broadcast extreme skepticism at precisely the wrong stages of the market cycle.

---

[12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=721s) American Exceptionalism, Peter Lynch, and the Futility of Market Timing

Describing the track record of prominent macro doomsayers as "mixed" is the most charitable possible framing; the blunter truth is that following their guidance leaves you with significantly less wealth than adhering to Warren Buffett's foundational advice. An everyday investor who simply bought an S&P 500 index fund, dollar-cost averaged into it paycheck after paycheck, closed their eyes, and tuned out macro gurus ended up far wealthier than anyone attempting to navigate credit cycles, liquidity mechanics, and bubble calls. While bears occasionally nail a crash to burnish their predictive credentials, those isolated wins are completely overshadowed by the 20% to 30% up-years they sit out.

This structural failure stems from betting against the relentless dynamism of the American economy. As Buffett has repeatedly emphasized, the United States possesses an exceptional environment where world-class businesses are founded, scale rapidly, and generate unprecedented profit margins. Rather than attempting to outsmart this engine through market timing, Buffett advises investors to "just get on the ride, get on board, invest in the US economy, buy a slice of it, and then you can be an owner of it as well."

The arithmetic decisively favors the bulls. Over the 19 calendar years spanning from 2007 to 2025, the US stock market finished in negative territory in only three years, closing positive in the other 16. That structural reality explains why persistent optimists like Tom Lee are so regularly proven right: the market simply goes up far more often than it goes down. As legendary Magellan fund manager Peter Lynch observed throughout his career, far more money has been lost by investors attempting to anticipate and protect against market corrections than has been lost in the actual corrections themselves.

---

[14:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=844s) Burry's Real-World Portfolio: Shorts and Missed Bets

While volatility and cyclical bear markets of 20% to 30% are an unavoidable reality of investing, attempting to preemptively trade around them remains a fool's errand. Buffett avoids market timing entirely because he recognizes he has no unique ability to forecast broad market direction; instead, he evaluates individual businesses, trusts the country's forward momentum, and lets Berkshire Hathaway's transparent, audited returns speak for themselves. In contrast, while Michael Burry does not provide full, audited visibility into his overall fund returns, examining his individual public positions exposes an erratic, often punishing track record:

- **Lululemon**: Down approximately 61% from the level where he initially discussed the position. - **Nvidia Short**: Down roughly 45% as the semiconductor juggernaut powered through his thesis to fresh highs. - **Palantir Short**: Turned sharply against him as the stock mounted a massive upward run. - **Adobe**: Generated a modest gain of about 17%. - **Broad Track Record**: Certain long picks have yielded gains around 30%, but others are saddled with losses exceeding 66%.

Claiming Burry is always wrong would be an unfair exaggeration, as he has undeniably nailed specific, high-profile market calls. However, he is frequently wrong, having misjudged several prominent positions and sold out of losing trades after the market moved violently against him. Investors should view commentators like Ray Dalio and Michael Burry with appropriate perspective: getting a famous call right in the past does not grant anyone permanent clairvoyance over future market cycles.

---

[16:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=985s) The AI Bubble Argument vs. Mega-Cap Balance Sheets and Valuations

Even if the current warnings about an artificial intelligence bubble popping prove correct, a long-term investor's rational reaction should be: "So what?" A standard bear market drawdown of 20% or 30% is completely irrelevant to anyone whose retirement horizon extends beyond the next five years. The companies underwriting the vast majority of AI capital expenditures—Alphabet (Google), Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon—are not speculative, cash-burning ventures liable to go bankrupt; they are the most profitable, cash-generative corporate machines in history, spitting off billions of dollars in free cash flow daily.

Furthermore, their equity valuations share virtually no resemblance to the true dot-com bubble of 1999–2000, when unviable companies traded at infinite multiples or forward P/E ratios of 50 to 80 without a dime of underlying profit. Today's mega-cap technology leaders trade at historically moderate, reasonable earnings multiples relative to their dominant balance sheets and competitive moats:

- **Alphabet (Google)**: Trades at a P/E ratio around 24, making severe valuation multiple compression toward 15 or 18 look overly pessimistic for a business of its caliber. - **Amazon**: Trades around a 25 forward P/E ratio, historically modest compared to its long-term ranges. - **Meta**: Trades at roughly 22 times earnings, representing a relatively low multiple given its margins and growth. - **Microsoft**: Trades at a forward P/E of roughly 25, which is historically conservative for its premier enterprise software and cloud dominance.

These are wide-moat, resilient companies already sitting at grounded valuations. Market drawdowns of 20% to 30% occur naturally every five to seven years. As Peter Lynch taught, investors should simply "pencil in" that regular volatility as the baseline cost of admission to the market, recognizing that cyclical panic reliably delivers wonderful long-term buying opportunities rather than a reason to flee.

[18:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=1107s) An Invitation to "The Steve Eisman Playbook"

Moving on from market preparations, Carlson turns his attention to another prominent investor who famously foresaw the 2008 financial crisis and was immortalized in *The Big Short*: Steve Eisman. For years, dating back to the earliest days of Carlson's YouTube channel when his audience was still tiny, he regularly reviewed and reacted to Eisman’s frequent appearances on CNBC. Creating those reaction videos—weighing in whether he agreed or disagreed with Eisman's market calls—had always been an enjoyable staple of the channel. That history made it a surreal and exciting full-circle moment when an opportunity arose to speak with Eisman directly.

Carlson appeared as a guest on Eisman’s exclusive, paywalled Substack video show, *The Steve Eisman Playbook*. Clarifying how the arrangement came together, Carlson explains that he never pitched himself or sought out the spotlight. He historically avoids guest spots and rarely grants interviews because he generally feels that traveling or going onto other platforms pulls him away from sharing his thoughts directly with his own community. However, when Eisman personally reached out via email expressing interest in a conversation, Carlson considered it an honor and an opportunity too significant to pass up, acknowledging that Eisman is someone "above that level where I'm going to go on a show and talk to him."

- Steve Eisman was famously chronicled in *The Big Short* for his bets against the subprime housing bubble and is a frequent contributor on CNBC. - The interview is hosted exclusively behind the paywall on Eisman's Substack publication, *The Steve Eisman Playbook*. - Carlson noted his standard policy of turning down outside interview requests, making an exception specifically due to Eisman's caliber and direct outreach.

[19:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=1184s) Defending the Bullish AI Thesis in the "Lion's Den"

The interview lasted roughly 45 minutes and moved at a relentless, jam-packed pace across a wide range of market topics. Carlson admits that stepping onto the show felt a bit like being thrown directly into the "lion's den" due to the sharp contrast in market outlooks. Eisman and his core following are notoriously skeptical of the ongoing artificial intelligence boom, and the platform typically features voices echoing that doubt. Carlson entered the discussion from the opposite camp, advocating a distinctly bullish perspective, explaining why he maintains aggressive allocations in leading tech names, and outlining his long-term investment logic.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Steve Eisman Interview Discussion Framework accDescr: Breakdown of Joseph Carlson's bullish counter-perspective against Steve Eisman's skeptical environment and the primary topics debated. subgraph Dynamic ["Interview Dynamic"] A["Steve Eisman & Substack Audience<br/>(Deep AI Skepticism)"] B["Joseph Carlson<br/>(Bullish Tech Thesis & Capital Allocation)"] A <-->|"45-Minute Rapid-Fire Debate"| B end

subgraph Agenda ["Core Discussion Topics"] C["Apple's Strategy in Conjunction with Google"] D["Agentic Commerce Dynamics"] E["Enterprise Disruption & Corporate Risk"] end

B --> Agenda ```

Despite the ideological friction, Carlson found the fast-paced exchange enjoyable and productive upon listening back to the recording. The conversation dug deep into several themes Carlson frequently analyzes on his own channel, including Apple's partnership strategy in conjunction with Google, developments in agentic commerce, and the structural risks emerging autonomous AI agents pose to established corporate business models. Carlson wraps up the episode by noting it was a great experience to exchange ideas directly with Eisman before signing off until the next broadcast.

- **Interview Duration:** Approximately 45 minutes of fast-paced, dense discussion. - **Audience Dynamic:** Carlson served as a bullish counterweight to Eisman's largely AI-skeptical subscriber base. - **Core Topics Covered:** - Apple’s AI integration strategy alongside Alphabet/Google. - Agentic commerce and shifting consumer interfaces. - Identification of legacy companies most vulnerable to disruption by agent-driven workflows.

## Notable quotes > [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=0s) The stock market is quite obviously in its first stage of grief and denial. Per 2000 and 2008, this stage will last 6 to 9 months. — Michael Burry

> [04:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=244s) he's smarter than all of us — Joseph Carlson

> [06:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=369s) Terrible, terrible call — Joseph Carlson

> [09:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=559s) Sell — Michael Burry

> [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=721s) just get on the ride, get on board, invest in the US economy, buy a slice of it, and then you can be an owner of it as well. — Warren Buffett

> [16:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=985s) So what? — Joseph Carlson

> [16:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=985s) pencil in — Peter Lynch

> [18:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=1107s) above that level where I'm going to go on a show and talk to him. — Joseph Carlson

> [19:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk&t=1184s) lion's den — Joseph Carlson

## Mentioned Michael Burry, Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, Principles, CNBC, Cassandra, X, Substack, Citrini, Christian Bale, The Big Short, Steve Eisman, The Steve Eisman Playbook, Qualtrim, Ed Zitron, Alphabet, Google, Meta, ASML, S&P Global, Netflix, Federal Reserve, S&P 500, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Tom Lee, Peter Lynch, Magellan Fund, Lululemon, Nvidia, Palantir, Adobe, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple

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[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yt7NuD-nbk)

中文简报

Burry与Dalio预测AI崩盘，但15年历史记录重创空头听从Michael Burry和Ray Dalio崩盘警告的投资者恐错失市场持续的复利增长，因为资助AI的科技巨头拥有强劲的现金流和温和的估值，与互联网泡沫时期截然不同。鉴于2008年著名空头Michael Burry和Ray Dalio同时发出市场即将崩盘和AI泡沫破裂的警告，Joseph Carlson对这两位投资者从2007年至2026年长达15年的公开预测记录进行了核查。通过将他们频繁的看空预测与标普500指数的实际表现进行对比，他指出，若听从这些警告，投资者将错失多次市场大涨——包括2013年大涨32%、2019年上涨31.49%以及2023年反弹27%——同时他也指出了Burry在多只个股及空头头寸上遭受的惨重损失。Carlson援引Warren Buffett和Peter Lynch的投资原则，反对择时交易，并指出如今的AI支出是由Alphabet、Amazon、Meta和Microsoft这些现金流充沛的超大盘龙头企业推动的，它们的市盈率（P/E）处于22至25倍的合理区间，而非互联网泡沫时期的估值水平。在节目最后，他回顾了近期在Steve Eisman的Substack节目《The Steve Eisman Playbook》中长达45分钟的做客经历，当时他在一群对AI深表怀疑的观众面前，为自己看多科技股和代理式商业（agentic commerce）的逻辑进行了辩护。 Michael Burry和Ray Dalio同时发出市场崩盘警告，Burry预测未来6至9个月内将出现2000年或2008年规模的下跌，而Dalio则警告称利率上升和大量AI资本流入将迫使AI泡沫破裂。 (0:00) 一项长达15年的历史回顾显示，若根据Dalio和Burry在2008年后的宏观警告采取行动，投资组合回报将严重受损——导致投资者错失标普500指数在2013年32%的大涨、2019年31.49%的涨势以及2023年27%的反弹。 (10:31) 在2007年至2025年的19个日历年中，美股仅有3年收跌，16年收涨，这极大地支持了Warren Buffett持续定投标普500指数的策略，而非宏观择时交易。 (12:01) 与2000年互联网泡沫时期远期市盈率高达50至80倍的亏损企业不同，如今主导AI资本支出的龙头企业是高利润的现金印钞机，且估值稳健——包括Alphabet（市盈率约24倍）、Meta（市盈率约22倍）、Amazon（远期市盈率约25倍）和Microsoft（远期市盈率约25倍）。 (16:25)

Reading summary

In response to simultaneous crash warnings from Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, Joseph Carlson reviews 15 years of their market calls and argues that long-term investors lose far more money heeding macro bears than holding profitable businesses through routine drawdowns. Simultaneous Warnings from Famous 2008 Bears (0:00) Michael Burry and Ray Dalio—both famous for anticipating the 2008 financial crisis—issued nearly simultaneous crash warnings in the same week. Posting on X as "Cassandra" on the 5th of the month, Burry claimed the stock market is in a 6-to-9-month stage of "grief and denial" comparable to 2000 and 2008. Dalio similarly warned that rising interest rates colliding with massive AI capital inflows will soon burst the AI bubble. Carlson notes that these warnings create natural anxiety for investors holding companies like Google, Meta, ASML, S&P Global, and Netflix for the next 10 to 20 years. To test whether investors should act on these signals, he examines both figures' public track records from 2007 through 2026. Fifteen Years of Costly Macro Bearishness (6:09) While Carlson credits Bridgewater and Burry for their pre-2008 foresight—and Dalio for a well-timed bullish call in 2011—he argues their post-crisis warnings would have severely damaged a portfolio. In 2013, Dalio projected roughly 4% annual equity returns over the next decade, underestimating actual returns by about four times and preceding a 32% S&P 500 surge. Subsequent warnings in 2015 and 2016 also occurred during a multi-year bull run of 13%, 1.3%, 12%, and 21% gains. Burry's vocal public warnings since 2019 fared even worse against the broader market. His 2019 warning of a passive index bubble coincided with a 31.49% S&P 500 gain. Although both investors correctly flagged speculative excess in 2021 ahead of an 18% market drop in 2022, both remained pessimistic near the bottom; Burry posted "Sell" in January 2023 just before a 27% market rally. Carlson adds that Burry lacks full audited visibility into his overall fund returns, and several of his tracked public positions have struggled, including Lululemon (down about 61% from where he discussed it), an Nvidia short (down roughly 45%), a losing Palantir short, and mixed long picks ranging from 17% to 30% gains to losses exceeding 66%. Compounding vs. the Futility of Market Timing (12:01) Carlson contrasts macro market timing with the approaches of Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch. From 2007 through 2025, the US stock market finished negative in only 3 of 19 calendar years, rising in the other 16. Because up years of 20% to 30% vastly outweigh occasional corrections, dollar-cost averaging into an S&P 500 index fund outperformed strategies driven by credit cycles and bubble calls. Citing Buffett's faith in the dynamism of the US economy and Lynch's observation that investors lose far more money preparing for corrections than in the corrections themselves, Carlson argues that past success on a famous trade does not grant permanent clairvoyance. Mega-Cap AI Fundamentals vs. Dot-Com Froth (16:25) Even if an AI bubble pops and triggers a standard 20% to 30% bear market—which Carlson notes occurs naturally every five to seven years—he argues it is irrelevant to investors with a horizon beyond five years. Unlike the unprofitable companies of the 1999–2000 dot-com bubble that traded at infinite multiples or forward P/E ratios of 50 to 80, today's AI capital expenditure is funded by highly profitable firms generating billions in daily free cash flow. According to Carlson, these leaders trade at grounded multiples relative to their balance sheets and moats: Alphabet at a P/E around 24, Amazon around a 25 forward P/E, Meta at roughly 22 times earnings, and Microsoft at a forward P/E of about 25. Carlson concludes his discussion by recounting a 45-minute guest appearance on Steve Eisman's Substack show, *The Steve Eisman Playbook*. Entering what he describes as a "lion's den" of AI-skeptical hosts and viewers, Carlson defended his bullish tech allocations and debated Apple's strategy with Google, agentic commerce, and which legacy companies face disruption from autonomous AI workflows.

Source quotes

[0:00] Michael Burry: The stock market is quite obviously in its first stage of grief and denial. Per 2000 and 2008, this stage will last 6 to 9 months. [4:04] Joseph Carlson: he's smarter than all of us [6:09] Joseph Carlson: Terrible, terrible call [9:19] Michael Burry: Sell [12:01] Warren Buffett: just get on the ride, get on board, invest in the US economy, buy a slice of it, and then you can be an owner of it as well. [16:25] Joseph Carlson: So what? [16:25] Peter Lynch: pencil in [18:27] Joseph Carlson: above that level where I'm going to go on a show and talk to him. [19:44] Joseph Carlson: lion's den

Original transcript

[0:00] Michael Bur and Ray Dalio are perhaps [0:02] two of the most well-known investors of [0:03] our time. They correctly predicted the [0:06] 2008 market crash and since then they've [0:08] had an enormous amount of media [0:10] attention paid to them. Ray Dalio, of [0:12] course, runs one of the biggest hedge [0:13] funds in the world, if not the very [0:15] biggest, which is Bridgewater. He's [0:16] written best-selling books. He came out [0:18] with his principles. He continually [0:20] lectures and write posts that garner [0:23] enormous amounts of attention. We also [0:25] have Michael Bur who gained notoriety by [0:28] shorting the housing market during the [0:29] 2008.com bubble. It was featured in the [0:32] big short and he was played by Batman [0:33] himself. This created an allure, an aura [0:36] around Michael Bur that to this day has [0:37] only got stronger and bigger. Michael [0:40] Bur that goes by the screen name [0:42] Cassandra on X has gained enormous [0:45] amounts of attention. His Substack, [0:47] which is an expensive Substack at $50 [0:50] per month, is now the second most [0:52] popular Substack in all of finance, only [0:55] surpassed by Citrony. Both of these [0:57] individuals have enormous audiences, [0:59] enormous coverage. Whatever they say [1:01] gets viewed by millions of people. Ray [1:03] Dalio is continually on CNBC. Michael [1:06] Bur would would definitely be featured [1:08] on CNBC if he made those appearances, [1:10] but he makes himself a little bit more [1:11] of a mystique figure, only talking [1:13] through X in his Substack. And both of [1:16] them, while they have these massive [1:17] audiences, have been somewhat skeptical [1:19] of the market over the past years. Now, [1:22] they've been skeptical, but they've also [1:24] made some very definitive calls just [1:26] recently. In fact, just a couple days [1:29] ago, this was on the 5th, Michael Bur [1:31] under the screen name Cassandra said, [1:34] "The stock market is quite obviously in [1:36] its first stage of grief and denial. Per [1:40] 2000 and 2008, this stage will last 6 [1:42] to9 months. Bur is predicting a market [1:45] collapse on the scale of the 2000.com [1:48] bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. [1:51] That seems pretty dramatic. It seems [1:53] pretty bad. We also have Ray Dalio at [1:56] the very same time just this week saying [1:59] that we're nearing a point where the AI [2:01] bubble may burst. Ray Dalio argues that [2:04] because interest rates are going up [2:05] during a time where there's money [2:07] pouring into AI companies that this will [2:09] cause this bubble which is going to [2:11] break eventually to happen sooner than [2:13] later following with the same timeline [2:15] that Bur himself picked out. So both of [2:18] these massive individuals with huge [2:19] audiences are now warning about a bubble [2:21] at the exact same time. And as I was [2:24] looking at this, I thought it would be [2:25] good to look over an entire review of [2:28] the credibility of both of these [2:30] figures, their track record, their [2:32] history, when they get things right, [2:34] when they get them wrong, and what does [2:36] it mean when they're calling for a [2:37] bubble? What does that actually mean we [2:39] should do? Should we sell our stocks? [2:41] Should we sell some of them? Should we [2:43] prepare in some way? What do these [2:44] signals actually mean, if anything? Is [2:46] there any value to them at all? What [2:47] I've decided to do is look at a very [2:49] exhaustive, comprehensive look at their [2:51] overall calls for the past 15 years [2:54] since the 2008.com bubble that made both [2:56] of these figures have a huge amount of [2:58] notoriety. We're going to be looking at [3:00] everything they've said, every call, all [3:02] of their sentiment, and see how it's [3:04] guided investors so far. I've done this [3:07] same type of thing with Ed Zitron and [3:09] his history. A lot of people thought [3:10] that was very interesting, so I thought [3:12] we would do it again here. Now, of [3:13] course, we have some other news that [3:14] we'll be getting to as well in this [3:16] episode. For example, this week I was [3:18] able to go on to the Steve Eisman [3:20] playbook. That is his Stub Stack. Steve [3:23] Eisman started one and I was able to do [3:25] a full interview with him. So, being [3:27] able to go on his own show and talk to [3:28] him was a a fun and interesting [3:29] experience. So, I'll give you some [3:31] background on how this happened, my [3:33] thoughts of the interview, and how I [3:34] think it went. So, we have a ton to get [3:36] to in this episode. Now, just a [3:37] reminder, if you haven't already, you [3:39] could consider trying out qual.com. That [3:42] membership gains you access to an entire [3:44] Discord community full of thousands of [3:46] investors. We're having discussions all [3:47] the time on stocks. I'm in the [3:49] discussions frequently talking about [3:51] stocks and other subjects as well as you [3:53] gain access to exclusive content. We [3:55] have deep dives and different videos on [3:57] different subjects. And you also gain [3:58] access to the entire Qualrum suite. You [4:00] can try out qual.com. It's included on [4:02] iOS and Android. Now, let's go ahead and [4:04] move on here. We get to the main subject [4:06] where as an investor, I'm trying to [4:08] manage my portfolio. I'm trying to [4:10] invest and make good decisions and I [4:13] basically just want to have a good [4:14] outcome over the next 10 or 20 years. I [4:16] want to be sure that I'm doing the right [4:17] thing, making good judgment calls. And [4:20] when I'm trying to do this, it's an [4:22] interesting thing because you're [4:24] investing in companies. You have a very [4:26] positive view of them over the long [4:28] term. Like I'll buy Google and Meta and [4:31] ASML and S&P Global and Netflix [4:33] believing that I'm going to make money [4:34] over the next 10 years. But then as I'm [4:37] doing that, I have people like Ray [4:39] Dallio come up and say, "You're not [4:41] going to make money in this market. This [4:43] market's going down." And those AI [4:45] companies that you're invested in, [4:48] you're in big trouble. Those are going [4:49] to go way down. And this is from [4:51] somebody like Ray Dallio, who is [4:53] obviously smarter than me, right? He's [4:55] smart. He's smarter than all of us. He's [4:57] written a book, a bestseller. He runs a [4:59] big hedge fund. So the impression you [5:01] get is that this guy that dresses really [5:03] nice that's worth billions of dollars. [5:05] Well, he must know something that I [5:07] don't and that makes me nervous about my [5:09] investments in my portfolio. This is [5:12] what I feel like all the time. And then [5:14] on top of that, there's this other guy, [5:16] Michael Bur, who at the same time I'm [5:18] trying to just make good investments and [5:19] invest in the future profitable [5:21] companies that are growing. And then I [5:23] hear Michael Bur say that we're 6 to9 [5:26] months away. I believe it's 6 to9. Yeah, [5:28] 6 to9 months away from a 2000 to 2008 [5:33] level crash. That's a really big claim [5:35] from a really big figure. Michael Bur is [5:37] someone that has some level of [5:38] credibility because he shorted the [5:40] housing market. He's one of the very few [5:42] to have done something that dramatic and [5:44] had such an incredible success. So, when [5:46] I look at this, I'm trying to make sense [5:48] of it. Should I really be concerned like [5:50] these guys are telling me to be? Now, [5:52] what I did was I tried to look at the [5:54] historical claims that they've made and [5:56] their historical sentiment and see what [5:59] would happen had I paid attention to [6:01] those historical claims. And I went [6:03] through as unbiasedly and as fair as [6:06] possible their historical claims and the [6:08] outcomes of them. So, let's go ahead and [6:10] take a look at a timeline here. Now, we [6:11] start off with 2007. A lot of people [6:13] know that Michael Bur, he was the one [6:15] that predicted the housing market crash [6:17] and made a big bet on that. But Ray [6:20] Dallio also predicted that there was [6:22] going to be a big financial crisis. [6:23] Bridgewwater correctly identified [6:25] dangerous credit and asset price [6:27] imbalances ahead of the financial crisis [6:30] in 2008. They were also very bearish and [6:32] prepared for this crisis. They continued [6:34] expecting banking and credit [6:36] deterioration as the crisis unfolded. So [6:39] they were spoton. This was a huge part [6:42] of their credibility and their [6:44] performance during the 2007 crash was [6:46] phenomenal. Then you get to 2009. They [6:49] were still bearish. They expected an [6:50] extended deleveraging. In 2010, we don't [6:53] really know what stance they had. Not a [6:55] lot of data on it. In 2011, they were [6:57] bullish. So, this is again good [6:59] positioning by Ray Dallio and his team. [7:02] He called US equities comparatively [7:04] cheap and supported by currency and [7:05] capital flows. 2012, we don't have [7:08] enough data on that, so we're going to [7:09] ignore that one. In 2013, [7:12] this is where Ray Dallio made one of the [7:14] biggest errors over the past 15 years. [7:17] They were bearish and they forecasted [7:19] disappointing equity returns of roughly [7:22] 4% annually over the following decade. [7:25] They underestimated the returns of the [7:27] market by a factor of around four. [7:30] Terrible, terrible call. Then we get to [7:32] 2014. They changed their sentiment a [7:34] little bit that year to be more [7:35] positive. Now in 2015, they turned a bit [7:37] more bearish, warning about different [7:39] scenarios that were really bad. They [7:41] warned about premature Fed tightening [7:43] that could cause a 1937 style [7:45] contraction. We move to 2016. Bearish. [7:49] They warned of monetary policy limits [7:51] and an unattractive riskreward backdrop [7:53] for assets. So they're saying in 2016 [7:56] the riskreward is unattractive in the US [7:59] markets. And by the way, this is all US [8:02] market related. So we're still going [8:04] through Ray Dallio. Haven't commented on [8:07] Michael Bur yet. 2017 he turned bullish. [8:10] Said the near-term outlook was favorable [8:12] even though longerterm structural risks [8:14] looked serious. 2018 and 2019 were both [8:17] mixed. 2021 bearish flagged high [8:20] valuation bubble behavior in pockets of [8:23] the market. Bearish again in 2023. They [8:26] warned of higher interest rates, warned [8:28] of preferred cash amid debt crisis. All [8:31] of this is warning about macro effects [8:32] on the economy throughout these years. [8:35] In 2024, they turned at least neutral to [8:37] bullish, not outwardly bearish like the [8:40] six surrounding years. They said that [8:42] the US stock market did not look overly [8:44] bubbly. So, it's not a super big bubble [8:47] in 2024. But then in 2025, Ray Dalio and [8:50] his team had more of a bearish stance. [8:53] And then again in 2026, and he's going [8:56] around now discussing potential [8:57] corrections in the market as the funding [9:00] conditions for all these AI companies [9:01] start to tighten. Now, let's go ahead [9:03] and turn our attention to Michael Bur. [9:05] Michael Bur, if we start off in 2007, [9:08] this was his best call by far. He was a [9:11] strong bearer. He maintained a powerful [9:14] bearish wager on the subprime credit [9:16] that anticipated wider financial damage. [9:19] This is where Michael Bur got his [9:20] reputation. This is where he made his [9:22] name and this is where he got the [9:24] mystique where people follow him now as [9:26] a person that predicted the market [9:27] crash. In 2019, we start to see more of [9:30] his public statements. This is where he [9:32] got on to X and he started to share more [9:33] of his viewpoints. He argued in 2019 [9:37] that passive index investing had [9:39] bubble-like vulnerabilities and could [9:41] worsen selling pressure. In 2020, he [9:43] warned of a selling stampede risk linked [9:45] to passive fund mechanics around the [9:47] COVID crash. In 2021, he was even more [9:50] bearish. He called speculation in [9:51] equities and crypto extreme and warned [9:54] of serious downside risk. Of course, [9:56] this one was correct. 2021 was a big [9:58] bubble and it popped. So, even after the [10:00] bubble popped, Michael Bur remained [10:02] bearish. He argued that equities had [10:04] further to fall, discussed very large [10:06] potential S&P declines in 2023. Still a [10:09] strong bear, posted sell in January, [10:12] then withdrew it only a couple months [10:13] later. Um, but overall, he'd never [10:15] shared really positive sentiment on the [10:17] market. And in 2025 and 2026 to date, [10:20] Michael Bur has remained bearish. So, [10:22] Michael Bur seems to be overall more [10:23] bearish than even Ray Dallio. And when [10:26] we put both of their calls together with [10:28] the numbers of performance from the [10:29] market, it paints a stronger picture. [10:31] For example, from 2010 to 2017, every [10:34] bearish call has been wrong. The market [10:36] in the United States has been on a [10:37] massive bull run that entire time. So [10:40] when Ray Dalio on the left here was [10:42] bearish in 2013 and 2015 and 2016, those [10:45] were calls that would have hurt [10:46] investors. If you got out of the market [10:49] because of Ray Dalio in 2013, you missed [10:52] out on a 32% upside, then another 13%, [10:56] then another 1.3%, then another 12%, [10:59] then another 21%. Now he's updated his [11:02] calls, but this shows you how dangerous [11:04] it is to hang on to any one thing he [11:06] says. Again, getting out of the market [11:08] in 2013 would have been devastating. [11:10] Once we move on throughout this bull [11:12] market, the calls got even worse. In [11:15] 2019, Michael Bur was bearish during a [11:17] year where the market gained 31.49%. [11:21] The absolute worst year to be bearish. [11:23] We look at 2021. Both of them were [11:25] bearish going into this year and they [11:27] got more bearish as this bubble [11:29] continued to grow. Now, the bubble did [11:31] pop which led to an 18% downside. But if [11:34] you look at their track record here, [11:36] they were bearish leading up to it and [11:38] then they both were bearish even after [11:39] the bubble popped. And the the years [11:42] following it were incredibly good. In [11:44] 2023, the market went up 27%. uh at [11:47] least Ray Dallio turned positive for one [11:50] year in 2024, but outside of that, their [11:52] sentiment, their commentary, their [11:54] overall words that they're saying on [11:55] television, on X, throughout their [11:57] Substack, throughout all their outlets [11:59] are very bearish during the wrong times. [12:01] When we look at their overall track [12:02] record, the charitable way to describe [12:04] it would be mixed. The other way would [12:06] be that if you follow them, you're going [12:08] to have less money than if you just [12:10] follow Warren Buffett's advice and [12:11] invest in the market. If you had just [12:13] bought the S&P 500 dollar cost average [12:16] into it with your paycheck and then [12:18] closed your eyes and ignored these two [12:20] individuals, you would have more money [12:21] than if you played this game of [12:23] constantly trying to time all these [12:25] credit cycles and bubbles and all of [12:27] this this type of activity. They have [12:29] some cases where they're correct. [12:31] There's some market crashes where they [12:32] will use to bolster their credibility [12:35] and say that they got that call right. [12:37] But there's so many instances where [12:38] they're overall extremely skeptical, [12:40] bearish, negative on the market and the [12:43] market rockets up 20 or 30%. And this is [12:46] the problem with being bearish on the [12:47] overall US stock market and the US [12:50] economy. It just hasn't proven well. [12:52] Buffett has highlighted this. America is [12:55] exceptional. There's something about it [12:57] where people make a lot of money here. [12:59] They make big businesses here. The [13:01] businesses are super profitable. It's [13:03] something about the US economy that [13:05] continues to excel above people's [13:07] expectations. Buffett says instead of [13:09] complaining about it or uh trying to [13:12] make predictions of timing the market, [13:14] just get on the ride, get on board, [13:16] invest in the US economy, buy a slice of [13:18] it, and then you can be an owner of it [13:20] as well. When you look at the overall US [13:22] stock market, the biggest challenge for [13:24] the bears is that it typically goes up [13:27] and it goes up a lot. In the 19 total [13:29] calendar years from 2007 to 2025, the [13:32] market was only negative three of them. [13:34] It was positive 16 years. This is what [13:37] that looks like. You're trying to time a [13:39] market that has this type of history. [13:42] And you can say it's just a big bull [13:43] market. That's true. But typically the [13:46] US market's in a bull market. That's why [13:48] people like Tom Lee usually get it right [13:50] is because the market usually goes up. [13:52] This is what people like Peter Lynch [13:53] have noticed throughout his career. Even [13:55] when he was investing, he noticed that [13:57] the people always trying to predict [13:59] market crashes lost more money in the [14:01] process than had they just stayed [14:02] bullish the entire time. Now, does this [14:04] mean there's never going to be a bare [14:05] market again or a 20% or 30% decline? Is [14:09] there never going to be volatility in [14:10] the market again? Of course not. And I'm [14:12] not arguing that. But there is no value [14:15] in trying to predict it when the overall [14:17] track record of predicting it is [14:19] completely mixed at best. And overall, [14:21] you're missing out on more gains, [14:23] constantly trying to predict these [14:24] outcomes than had you just held through [14:26] the downturns and invested more when [14:28] opportunities arise. And like Warren [14:30] Buffett has warned many times that [14:32] timing the market typically does not [14:33] work out well. He doesn't advise it. He [14:36] says that he doesn't really have an [14:37] opinion on the market. He doesn't [14:38] concern himself with the market. He [14:40] invests in quality companies. He [14:42] believes the US is going to do well. He [14:44] thinks every investor should buy a slice [14:45] of the S&P 500 and that strategy [14:48] transparently has worked out better. [14:50] Berkshire Hathway's returns are [14:52] incredibly incredibly good and very [14:54] transparent. And even though we don't [14:56] have a clear look at Michael Bur's [14:57] returns because he'll never give us any [14:59] type of clear look at it, we can look at [15:01] some of his positions. Some of them have [15:04] been devastating losses. He's currently [15:06] down 61% on his Lululemon position since [15:09] he first talked about it. He's down 45% [15:12] on his shorting of Nvidia. Nvidia's [15:15] continued to go up. He's also shorted [15:17] Palunteer. That one has not gone his way [15:19] either. Adobe, he's made approximately a [15:22] little bit of money, 17% at this point. [15:24] There's several positions that have [15:25] worked for him. So many of these have [15:27] gone up, but then there's also more [15:29] positions that have gone the complete [15:30] opposite way. Some stocks he's up 30%, [15:33] some he's down 66%, overall it's [15:36] incredibly mixed. Michael Bur isn't [15:38] always wrong. That would be an [15:39] exaggeration. And there's a lot of calls [15:40] that he's gotten right, but he is [15:42] frequently wrong. Many of these calls, [15:44] in fact, numerous of them just recently [15:46] are completely wrong. They've been [15:47] proven wrong, and he's even sold out [15:49] oppositions that have not gone his way [15:51] very recently. Now, the reason I [15:52] highlight all of this is not to bash [15:54] these people. It's not to say everything [15:56] they say is wrong, and you should ignore [15:58] them and never pay attention to them. I [16:00] think it's fine to look at what Ray [16:02] Dalio says or even what Michael Bur says [16:04] and get his opinion on things, but just [16:06] put it in context. These are people. [16:08] They got a call right before, but that [16:11] does not infer some special ability on [16:13] them to accurately predict every [16:15] downturn. And history has proven that [16:17] out time and time again. So if you're [16:19] listening to what they say, you can put [16:20] it in context with their overall [16:22] reputation in history. And even in the [16:25] case of this most recent call for a big [16:28] bare market, this most recent call for [16:30] the big bubble collapsing in AI, if it [16:32] happens in my case, so what? Uh what's [16:37] the problem? the market will drop down a [16:39] little bit, my portfolio will go down [16:41] 20, 30%. Who cares? Unless you're [16:44] investing to retire in like the next 5 [16:46] years, why does that even matter? When I [16:49] look at the companies that I'm holding, [16:51] these companies aren't going to go [16:52] bankrupt. Like Google, Meta, Microsoft, [16:55] Amazon, the companies that are funding [16:57] the capex are all the most profitable [16:59] companies in the world. They literally [17:01] spit off more cash every day than most [17:03] companies could dream of. So, they're [17:05] not going anywhere. these companies [17:07] aren't going to go bankrupt. But then [17:08] you could look at valuation. Maybe the [17:10] valuations will get crushed. The [17:11] valuations will go down like crazy. But [17:13] we look at the valuations today. [17:15] Google's at a 24 PE ratio. This is not a [17:19] high valuation. What is it going to get [17:21] crushed to? An 18 a 15 PE ratio. Is that [17:25] what investors are going to bid it at? [17:26] We have Amazon that's currently trading [17:28] at a 25. Again, not a super high [17:31] valuation. We have Meta that's trading [17:33] at a 22. a relatively low valuation all [17:36] things considered. Then we have [17:37] Microsoft, even this great company, [17:39] trading at a historically low Ford PE [17:41] ratio of 25. This is nowhere like the [17:44] enthusiasm in the market during the dot [17:46] bubble where companies were trading for [17:47] infinite PE ratios. They weren't even [17:50] profitable and they're trading 50 or 70 [17:52] or 80 Ford PE. These companies aren't [17:55] even close to that. These are [17:56] extraordinarily powerful, diverse, wide [17:58] mo companies that are already at [18:00] conservative valuations today. So even [18:02] if there is some big market crash or [18:05] some big problem in the market, who [18:08] cares? This is something that you should [18:10] be pricing in with your investments that [18:12] every 5 to seven years the market will [18:14] go down maybe 20 or 30%. That's [18:17] something that Peter Lynch says to just [18:18] pencil in. Expect the market will go [18:20] down at some point in time. It happens [18:22] all the time. It's happened throughout [18:24] history. It'll happen again. And that [18:26] typically provides a wonderful buying [18:27] opportunity for investors that are [18:29] mentally prepared. Now, moving on, I [18:31] want to talk about someone else that [18:32] also predicted the financial crisis and [18:35] was also featured in the Big Short, [18:36] which is Steve Eisman. Now, Steve Eisman [18:38] has also made many appearances on CNBC, [18:40] of which I've covered on my YouTube [18:42] channel for years. So, going back to [18:44] when I started my YouTube channel, when [18:45] it was just a small thing, I would talk [18:47] about his appearance, whether I agreed [18:48] with him or not. Uh, it's been a fun [18:51] part of the channel to make those [18:52] reaction videos. So, it was a fun thing [18:55] to be able to go on to his show and [18:57] speak to the man himself. It was a cool [18:58] experience. He has his Steve Eisman [19:00] playbook, which is his own Substack, so [19:02] this is a paywalled video. It's [19:04] exclusive. Um, I'm not going to release [19:06] it here, but I can provide at least a [19:08] little background about how this went [19:10] and what we talked about. First of all, [19:12] I didn't contact or reach out to Steve [19:13] Eisman. I wasn't looking for interviews. [19:15] In fact, I rarely ever do interviews. [19:17] You may notice that. Uh, but he emailed [19:19] me and and seemed interested in doing an [19:21] interview. And so, I said that would be [19:22] great. I'd be honored and went on to a [19:24] show and did it. Uh, and normally I [19:26] don't like interviews that much. it just [19:29] seems like you're going out talking to [19:30] other people when I could share my [19:31] thoughts right here. Uh so I haven't [19:34] really done them, but when someone like [19:36] Steve Eisman reaches out to you, I feel [19:37] like I have to take advantage of it. [19:39] That's someone that I think is is above [19:41] that level where I'm going to I'm going [19:42] to go on a show and and talk to him. So [19:44] we had an interview was about 45 minutes [19:46] long. I think it's jam-packed. Like the [19:48] whole thing from beginning to end, it's [19:50] very fast. We talk about a lot of [19:51] different subjects and basically I feel [19:54] like I was a little bit of a a person [19:56] thrown in the lion's den there because [19:57] Steve Eisman and his audience is very [20:00] skeptical of AI. So I'm coming in trying [20:02] to show a more bullish view on it. The [20:04] the reasons that I'm invested in these [20:06] companies, my perspective on it, and [20:08] it's a little bit of a contrast from [20:09] what his audience is used to. Most of [20:11] his guests and people are very overall [20:13] skeptical of it. But regardless, I think [20:15] it was good. I listened to the interview [20:16] back. I think it was really fun. We [20:18] talked about Apple strategy in [20:19] conjunction with Google's. We talked [20:21] about Muse and Agentic Commerce and [20:23] which companies that poses risk to and [20:25] many of the same things that we've [20:26] talked about recently on our show. So, [20:28] overall, it was a good experience to be [20:29] able to meet with them and talk with [20:30] them and share some of my thoughts. Now, [20:32] that's going to be it for this episode. [20:33] Hope you enjoyed. See you in the next [20:34] one.