Stock Market Insights. The Last 4 Months of 2026

Adam Khoo

AI-assisted summary of Stock Market Insights. The Last 4 Months of 2026 — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-09-03

Key ideas

The S&P 500 forward P/E compressed from 22.0x in January to 19.6x by late August, making the index fundamentally cheaper despite climbing over 13% YTD due to rapid corporate earnings growth. (9:19)
Second-quarter corporate earnings delivered blowout growth of 52% year-over-year, more than doubling Wall Street's initial 23% forecast, with 9 of 11 sectors recording double-digit gains. (11:19)
Technical moving averages remain aligned to the upside across short-, medium-, and long-term daily timeframes, keeping the path of least resistance tilted higher through year-end. (0:11)
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.78%, steepening the yield curve to the benefit of financials and private credit while prompting the U.S. Treasury to double monthly bond buybacks to $4 billion. (15:38)

Detailed notes

## Background Published on YouTube by professional investor and author Adam Khoo on September 3, 2026, this video provides a preview of his monthly Stock Market Analysis update for subscribers of his Ultimate Investors Playbook. According to the page description, Khoo shares deep-dive research into the top 1% of stocks, portfolio reviews, and trading strategies to help investors navigate market opportunities.

## TL;DR Adam Khoo evaluates the technical and fundamental health of the S&P 500 heading into the final four months of the year, finding that all key moving averages remain firmly in an intact uptrend. He dispels bubble narratives by demonstrating that multiple expansion has actually cooled to a fair 19.6x forward P/E, carried by an exceptional 52% surge in Q2 corporate earnings. While addressing macro headlines, rising 10-year Treasury yields, and historical September seasonality, Khoo treats macroeconomic commentary as secondary to fundamentals. He concludes that investors should avoid timing the market or panicking over seasonal pullbacks, instead maintaining disciplined adherence to technical supports and core investment rules.

## Atmosphere & style The presentation is energetic, unapologetically pragmatic, and instructional, delivered with Khoo's trademark self-assured and conversational style. He balances quantitative charting with candid humor—joking about being 'tired of winning' and colorfully advising traders not to 'chase the girl' when stocks become overextended. The overall feel is stabilizing and grounded, designed to cut through mainstream media hysteria and instill disciplined confidence in everyday investors.

## Bulletin - [09:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=559s) The S&P 500 forward P/E compressed from 22.0x in January to 19.6x by late August, making the index fundamentally cheaper despite climbing over 13% YTD due to rapid corporate earnings growth. - [11:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=679s) Second-quarter corporate earnings delivered blowout growth of 52% year-over-year, more than doubling Wall Street's initial 23% forecast, with 9 of 11 sectors recording double-digit gains. - [00:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=11s) Technical moving averages remain aligned to the upside across short-, medium-, and long-term daily timeframes, keeping the path of least resistance tilted higher through year-end. - [15:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=938s) The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.78%, steepening the yield curve to the benefit of financials and private credit while prompting the U.S. Treasury to double monthly bond buybacks to $4 billion.

## Key takeaways - [00:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=11s) Multi-timeframe technical indicators confirm the S&P 500 uptrend is intact, with the 20 EMA above the 40 EMA and the upward-sloping 200-day moving average guiding the index higher. - [02:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=155s) Key support levels for potential autumn pullbacks sit at 743, 672, 604, and 548, with the 20 EMA level of 743 serving as the primary realistic dynamic floor. - [02:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=155s) For international investors dollar-cost averaging into the S&P 500, the London-listed CSPX ETF provides significant advantages over SPY and VOO by eliminating U.S. estate tax exposure and reducing dividend withholding taxes. - [05:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=329s) Year-to-date market gains remain broad-based, led by small caps up 18.64% and the NASDAQ 100 up 16.86%, while the S&P 500 has gained 11.75%. - [05:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=329s) Capital allocation emphasizes secular compounders with elevated ROE and ROIC over cyclical sectors like basic materials and energy, with selective exceptions like Linde. - [09:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=559s) At 19.6x forward earnings, the S&P 500 is trading below its 5-year average of 19.9x, debunking bubble narratives and demonstrating that price appreciation is supported by underlying profits. - [11:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=679s) Corporate earnings for Q2 surged 52% year-over-year, beating analyst consensus of 23% and insulating equity markets against softer macro indicators. - [11:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=679s) Valuation distribution across the S&P 500 shows significant dispersion, with nearly 300 companies categorized as fair value or undervalued, leaving ample room for bottom-up stock picking. - [13:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=819s) Weakening macroeconomic readings—including contracting July payrolls and GDP slowing to 1.5%—ironically buoyed equities by reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve cannot over-tighten. - [15:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=938s) A 10-year Treasury yield near 5% represents a normal historical borrowing environment, and the resulting steepening yield curve bolsters net interest margins for banks, insurers, and private credit lenders. - [15:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=938s) To manage debt service costs and support bond prices, the U.S. Treasury has actively intervened in the debt market by expanding bond buybacks to $4 billion monthly. - [20:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=1243s) Investors are advised against timing seasonal September weakness or liquidating holdings, as five of the top ten Septembers since 1950 occurred during midterm election cycles. - [22:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=1339s) Long-term investment success depends on systematic execution, resisting FOMO, and refusing to chase extended rallies rather than reacting emotionally to short-term market swings.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=11s) S&P 500 Technical Trend and Moving Averages

Adam Khoo opens his monthly market update on the 1st of September, looking ahead at the remaining four months of the year. Examining the S&P 500 using the SPY ETF proxy, the technical charts indicate an unambiguous, intact uptrend. On the daily time frame, the moving averages tell a straightforward story: the short-term trend is up because the 20 EMA (red dotted line) sits comfortably above the 40 EMA (blue dotted line). Meanwhile, the medium-term trend is upward with the 50-day moving average (blue line) above the 150-day moving average (green line), and the long-term trend remains positive because the 200-day moving average (red line) is sloping upward.

Because the short, medium, and long-term indicators align in the same direction, "the path of least resistance is up." Unless a structural trend change manifests, probabilities favor prices pushing higher toward year-end. Adam emphasizes that uptrends never move in straight lines; rather, they unfold in alternating waves of impulses and pullbacks. Earlier in March, the market experienced a short-term correction where the 20 EMA crossed below the 40 EMA, yet the medium- and long-term moving averages held their upward trajectory. A genuine bear market scenario would require the 50 moving average to cross below the 150, accompanied by downward slopes across both the 150 and the 200-day lines—a technical state far removed from current price behavior.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Multi-Timeframe Trend Confirmation accDescr: Flowchart illustrating moving average criteria confirming an overall uptrend for the S&P 500.

subgraph MovingAverages["Moving Average Trend Signals"] ST["20 EMA > 40 EMA (Short-Term Trend Up)"] MT["50 MA > 150 MA (Medium-Term Trend Up)"] LT["200 MA Sloping Up (Long-Term Trend Up)"] end

subgraph Outcome["Market Outlook"] Direction["Path of Least Resistance: UP Prices expected to grind higher toward year-end"] end

ST --> Direction MT --> Direction LT --> Direction ```

[02:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=155s) Weekly Structures, DCA Instruments, and Key Support Levels

Switching to the weekly candles provides a cleaner perspective on the wave cycle, showing how the market recovered from historical sharp drops, such as the tariff shock under Donald Trump that previously brought the index close to a bear market. For investors who dollar-cost average (DCA) into the broader market, Adam mentions several ETF options depending on jurisdiction. While US investors commonly use SPY or VOO (favored for its lower expense ratio), non-US investors frequently opt for CSPX on the London Stock Exchange, as it eliminates US estate tax liabilities and carries a reduced withholding tax on dividends.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: S&P 500 ETF Choices accDescr: Breakdown of S&P 500 ETF alternatives based on investor residency and fee preferences.

SP500["S&P 500 Exposure"]

SP500 --> SPY["SPY ETF (High liquidity benchmark)"] SP500 --> VOO["VOO ETF (Lower management fees)"] SP500 --> CSPX["CSPX ETF (Non-US Residents: No estate tax risk & lower dividend withholding tax)"] ```

Because September is historically the weakest calendar month of the year, Adam details four distinct horizontal and dynamic support zones to watch in the event of a pullback: - **Support 1 (743):** Concurs with the 20 EMA on the daily/weekly charts, acting as the primary dynamic floor during mild wave pullbacks. - **Support 2 (672):** Aligns with the 20 EMA on the monthly timeframe, presenting a very strong historical bouncing level. - **Support 3 (604):** Concurs with the 40 EMA on the monthly chart. - **Support 4 (548):** Sits directly at the 50 moving average on the monthly candles.

Should the market encounter seasonal selling pressure throughout September, Adam views level 743 as the most realistic landing zone, explicitly doubting that prices would drop all the way down to 672.

[05:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=329s) Year-to-Date Performance and Sector Breakdown

Reviewing year-to-date (YTD) performance figures across major indices reveals strong gains across the board: - **S&P 500:** Up 11.75% - **Dow Jones Industrial Average:** Up 9.94% - **NASDAQ 100:** Up 16.86% - **Small-Cap Index:** Outperforming strongly at 18.64%

Adam shares that his personal investment portfolio is up roughly 20% on a time-weighted basis and up 25% on a market-weighted basis, outperforming the benchmark indices again. Jokingly remarking, "Oh, I'm tired of winning," he transitions into monthly and YTD sector dynamics.

The top-performing sector of the previous month was basic materials, a sector Adam systematically avoids due to cyclical swings, low pricing power, thin margins, and weak economic moats. His lone exception is Linde plc (LIN), which produces industrial gases on site under long-term contracts rather than relying on volatile natural gas commodities.

Technology delivered robust gains as well, driven not only by semiconductor manufacturers and AI capex spending, but also by a clear rebound in software stocks. Healthcare followed as the third best monthly performer, another sector Adam likes. Energy posted solid numbers due to geopolitical unrest—specifically the war in Iran driving crude oil prices higher—though Adam avoids energy stocks because secular compounders with elevated returns on equity (ROE) and return on invested capital (ROIC) generate superior long-term results.

On the weaker end of the monthly spectrum, consumer cyclicals, communication services, consumer defensive, real estate, and utilities lagged behind. Adam maintains zero direct interest in real estate and utility equities (holding REITs strictly inside a separate dividend-focused portfolio). Looking at overall YTD sector leaders, energy and technology lead, while communication services (weighed down by YTD drops in Meta and Netflix) and consumer discretionary (including holdings like AutoZone, MercadoLibre, and Amazon) trade negative. Adam notes he is actively accumulating beaten-down quality names across those sectors.

[09:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=559s) S&P 500 Valuations: The Earnings-Driven Reality

Addressing recurring headlines in the financial press proclaiming the market is in a dangerous bubble, Adam checks the quantitative valuation metrics against historical baselines. As of August 31, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 stood at 19.6x. When placed into context, this is below its 5-year average of 19.9x and roughly in line with its 10-year average of 19.0x, indicating that the index is fairly valued rather than dangerously stretched.

The most notable anomaly is that in January of the current year, the forward P/E ratio was 22.0x. Despite the market climbing over 13% since then, the forward P/E multiple has compressed down to 19.6x. This means the broader stock market is mathematically cheaper today than it was at the beginning of the year. This dynamic has occurred because corporate earnings have outperformed expectations, growing faster than price appreciation. Adam concludes that the market's ongoing advance is fundamentally sound: it is "an earnings driven market," rather than an unsustainable rally powered by multiple expansion or central bank money printing.

[11:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=679s) Q2 Earnings Blowout and S&P 500 Valuations

The sustainability of the current rally comes down entirely to fundamentals and corporate earnings. Having just concluded the second-quarter earnings season—capped off by NVIDIA reporting blowout results that caused its share price to gap up—the underlying numbers across corporate America are remarkably strong. Out of the 11 sectors in the market, nine posted double-digit earnings growth for Q2.

Earlier in the year, analysts had projected S&P 500 Q2 earnings to grow at 23% year-over-year. Instead, the final figures revealed actual earnings growth came in at an astounding 52%—more than double initial consensus. This blowout growth explains why the market has marched upward despite headwinds like war, soft employment reports, and rising Treasury yields: corporate earnings are simply carrying the weight.

Examining valuation distribution across the S&P 500 using Stock Oracle highlights a nuanced environment rather than widespread euphoria:

- **Very Cheap:** 46 stocks (9% of the S&P 500) - **Undervalued:** 104 stocks (20% of the S&P 500) - **Fairly Priced:** 134 stocks (26% of the S&P 500) - **Overvalued:** 113 stocks - **Very Overvalued:** 105 stocks

Stock Oracle organizes these holdings by economic moat (green for wide moat, yellow for narrow moat, and red for no moat), demonstrating that while high-flying pockets exist, ample opportunities remain fairly priced or cheap.

---

[13:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=819s) Macro Developments: Fed Policy, Rates, and Market Irony

Macroeconomic news and central bank updates should be consumed "purely for entertainment purposes." They hold zero weight in core investing and stock-selection decisions because trying to trade macroeconomic headlines is a recipe for pulling one's hair out. Throughout August, markets fixated on the Federal Reserve's dilemma: inflation remains sticky, yet the labor market shows signs of weakness, leaving the Fed's hands tied. At the July meeting (concluded on August 19), policymakers held the federal funds rate steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Later, at the August 28 Jackson Hole economic symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech that signaled hawkishness—warning that persistent inflation could force rate hikes—yet the market largely dismissed the posturing. Still, market-implied odds of a September rate hike climbed from 40% to 57%.

On the economic front, macroeconomic data pointed toward slowing conditions: - **July Nonfarm Payrolls:** Contracted by 23,000 jobs (reported in August). - **Payroll Revisions:** May and June figures were revised downward by 66,000 and 37,000 jobs respectively. - **Unemployment Rate:** Held relatively steady primarily because workers left the labor force. - **Inflation Metrics:** Headline PCE landed at 3.7% year-over-year (slightly above consensus), while Core PCE came in at 3.3%. - **Economic Growth:** Real GDP registered at 1.5%, cooling from the Q1 reading of 2.1%.

In typical market irony, stocks rose on weak data because participants calculated that sluggish growth and softening employment would prevent the Fed from tightening further.

---

[15:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=938s) The 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Steepening Curve

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from roughly 4.19% at the start of the year to 4.78%, hitting new annual highs. While retail traders panic at the prospect of a 5% yield, a 5% long-term rate is historically normal for the United States. The 15-year period post-2008 and during the pandemic—where yields sank to 2% or 3% due to zero-interest-rate policy—was the historical anomaly. Long-term yields are primarily driven by economic growth and inflation expectations: when both are present, investors sell low-yielding long-term bonds to chase growth assets, pushing bond yields higher.

To combat mounting interest costs on the national debt, the U.S. Treasury has intervened directly in the market by buying back long-term government bonds to bolster bond prices and pull yields downward, doubling buyback operations to $4 billion per month.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Rising 10-Year Yield Dynamics and Yield Curve Steepening accDescr: Diagram illustrating how inflation and growth lift the 10-year yield, steepen the yield curve, and benefit financials while triggering Treasury buybacks.

subgraph MacroDrivers["Macro Drivers"] G["Strong Growth Expectations"] I["Persistent Inflation"] end

subgraph BondMarket["Bond Market Impact"] SB["Investors Sell Long-Term Bonds"] Y10["10-Year Yield Rises to ~4.78%"] YC["Yield Curve Steepens"] end

subgraph Beneficiaries["Market Effects"] BK["Banks & Insurers: Cheap Borrowing vs. Higher Loan Rates"] PC["Private Credit: Floating-Rate Loans Benefit"] TB["Treasury Buys Back Debt ($4B/mo) to Cap Yields"] end

G --> SB I --> SB SB --> Y10 Y10 --> YC YC --> BK YC --> PC Y10 --> TB ```

A rising long-term rate steepens the yield curve. A steeper curve benefits banks and insurance companies, allowing them to borrow at cheaper short rates and lend at higher long rates to widen net interest margins. It likewise aids private credit funds holding floating-rate debt instruments.

---

[20:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=1243s) Seasonality Realities and the September Playbook

Heading into the final stretch of the year, corporate earnings remain strong and the broader market trend remains firmly upward, pointing toward a higher year-end finish. However, seasonality patterns often provoke anxiety: September is historically the weakest month of the calendar year, even during midterm election years.

Because practically everyone anticipates a September pullback, the contrarian outcome is just as likely:

- Investors should never attempt to short the index or liquidate their entire portfolio in September with plans to buy back in October. - Pullbacks are normal and "part of the grand plan." - Historical data since 1950 reveals multiple stellar Septembers with gains of 6% to 8%. - Out of the 10 best Septembers on record since 1950, five occurred during midterm election cycles.

Since nobody owns a crystal ball, trying to time market swings is futile. Investors should remain anchored in quality businesses rather than panicking over seasonal tendencies.

[22:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=1339s) Closing Mantras: Following the Rules and Avoiding FOMO

Adam Khoo concludes his market outlook by wishing viewers a profitable and successful September, signing off with his core operational philosophy on discipline and psychology. Rather than letting market swings dictate actions, he urges investors to remain grounded in their systematic approach, reiterating his cardinal rules: "Don't FOMO, don't panic."

He brings back one of his trademark, colorful analogies—reminding traders, "Don't chase the girl. Just follow the rules." In Khoo's framework, desperately chasing a stock that has already skyrocketed is no different from chasing someone who is running away from you; it leads to poor risk-reward entries and emotional regret. The key to long-term survival and profitability in the market is patience, waiting for high-probability setups to come to you, and adhering strictly to tested trade management guidelines.

- **Emotional control over impulsiveness**: Investors are reminded to eliminate both FOMO (fear of missing out) on extended rallies and panic selling during volatility. - **The "don't chase" rule**: Chasing overextended stocks breaks discipline; high-probability investing requires waiting for proper support levels and entry triggers. - **Systematic execution**: The ultimate takeaway is unwavering adherence to established trading rules and risk management protocols above all else.

## Notable quotes > [00:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=11s) the path of least resistance is up. — Adam Khoo

> [05:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=329s) Oh, I'm tired of winning, — Adam Khoo

> [09:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=559s) an earnings driven market, — Adam Khoo

> [13:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=819s) purely for entertainment purposes. — Adam Khoo

> [20:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=1243s) part of the grand plan. — Adam Khoo

> [22:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=1339s) Don't FOMO, don't panic. — Adam Khoo

> [22:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q&t=1339s) Don't chase the girl. Just follow the rules. — Adam Khoo

> MAY THE MARKETS BE WITH YOU! — Adam Khoo

## Mentioned Adam Khoo, Donald Trump, Kevin Warsh, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ 100, SPY, VOO, CSPX, London Stock Exchange, Linde plc, NVIDIA, Meta, Netflix, AutoZone, MercadoLibre, Amazon, Stock Oracle, Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, Piranha Profits, Ultimate Investors Playbook, Winning the Game of Stocks, Profit from the Panic, Wealth Academy, Adam Khoo Learning Technologies Group

## Video description Here is a sneak peek into my Stock Market Analysis September update for subscribers of my Ultimate Investors Playbook!

To get access to all my monthly stock market analysis, deep dive research on the top 1% of stocks, portfolio reviews for my capital gains and dividend portfolios and insights into my daily investment and option trades, do join us at insight.piranhaprofits.com

======================== Stock Investing & Trading insights by Adam Khoo will show you profitable trading and investment opportunities in today's stock markets.

These are essential strategies for stock traders and investors who want to improve their investment and trading performance.

Adam Khoo is a professional stock investor and options trader and the best-selling author of 16 books including 'Winning the Game of Stocks" and "Profit from the Panic". Thousands of students have profited from his sharp investment insights into the world of stock market investing and trading. ===================== Sign up for our courses/mentorship programs 📗 Value Momentum Investing: http://bit.ly/4mqrEVP 📙 Options Waverider™: http://bit.ly/4c5xyrR 📘 Price Action Manipulation™ (Trading): http://bit.ly/48FUAmQ 📕 Income Investing™ (Dividends): http://bit.ly/3Ow8CRj

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[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWG11RH570Q)

中文简报

股市洞察：2026年最后4个月走势展望 Adam Khoo在步入今年最后四个月之际评估了标普500指数的技术面与基本面健康状况，发现所有关键均线仍稳固处于未受破坏的上升趋势中。他指出，由于第二季度企业盈利实现高达52%的超预期激增，估值倍数实际上已回落至合理的19.6倍远期市盈率，从而打破了泡沫论。在探讨宏观要闻、10年期美债收益率上升以及9月份的历史季节性表现时，Khoo认为宏观经济评论相较于基本面仅居次席。他的结论是，投资者应避免择时交易或因季节性回调而恐慌，而应严格遵循技术支撑位并恪守核心投资纪律。标普500指数的远期市盈率已从1月的22.0倍压缩至8月下旬的19.6倍；得益于企业盈利的迅速增长，该指数尽管年内涨幅超过13%，但从基本面来看却变得更具性价比。 (9:19) 第二季度企业盈利同比迎来52%的井喷式增长，较华尔街最初预期的23%翻了一倍以上，且11个板块中有9个实现了两位数增长。 (11:19) 日线级别的短、中、长期技术均线均维持多头排列，使得截至年底阻力最小的路径依然偏向于上行。 (0:11) 10年期美债收益率触及4.78%，收益率曲线变陡有利于金融板块和私人信贷，同时促使美国财政部将每月债券回购规模增加一倍至40亿美元。 (15:38)

Reading summary

Adam Khoo argues that the U.S. equity market's broader uptrend remains intact heading into late 2026, underpinned by exceptional corporate earnings growth that has compressed forward valuations despite major index gains. He advises investors to disregard macroeconomic headlines and resist timing seasonal September volatility, advocating disciplined execution around established technical support levels. Technical Trend Alignment and Downside Support Levels (0:11) Across multiple timeframes, the S&P 500 exhibits a confirmed upward structure. On the daily chart, the 20 EMA sits above the 40 EMA, while the 50-day moving average remains above the 150-day moving average and the 200-day moving average continues to slope upward. Khoo notes that a genuine bear market requires the 50-day moving average to cross below the 150-day line with both long-term lines sloping downward—a condition not currently present. While weekly charts confirm this upward path of least resistance, Khoo highlights several instruments for index accumulation, such as SPY, lower-cost VOO, and CSPX on the London Stock Exchange for non-U.S. investors seeking estate and dividend tax efficiencies. To prepare for potential seasonal pullbacks, Khoo identifies four technical support levels: Support 1 at 743 (the daily and weekly 20 EMA dynamic floor), Support 2 at 672 (the monthly 20 EMA), Support 3 at 604 (the monthly 40 EMA), and Support 4 at 548 (the monthly 50 moving average). In the event of a routine September retreat, Khoo identifies 743 as the primary expected stabilization zone, viewing a deeper correction to 672 as unlikely. Earnings Expansion and Compressed Valuation Multiples (9:19) Countering commentary that equities are trapped in an unsustainable bubble, Khoo emphasizes that the ongoing advance is fundamentally driven by corporate earnings rather than multiple expansion. As of August 31, the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 19.6x. This represents a compression from 22.0x in January, despite the benchmark rising over 13% across the same period. The current 19.6x multiple sits slightly below its 5-year average of 19.9x and roughly on par with its 10-year average of 19.0x, indicating fair market valuation. This valuation compression stems from corporate earnings significantly exceeding forecasts. S&P 500 second-quarter earnings grew 52% year-over-year, more than double the consensus projection of 23%, with nine of eleven market sectors posting double-digit earnings growth. According to Stock Oracle valuation distributions cited by Khoo, the market contains 150 undervalued or very cheap stocks and 134 fairly priced equities, demonstrating that investment opportunities with economic moats persist even as certain high-momentum shares reach overvalued territory. Macro Disconnect, Labor Softening, and Yield Dynamics (13:39) Khoo maintains that macroeconomic speculation and central bank posturing should be treated as entertainment rather than an investment compass. Although July nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000, prior months were revised downward by 103,000 jobs, and real GDP cooled to 1.5%, equities rallied as participants anticipated that slowing economic momentum would deter aggressive central bank tightening. Even after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole regarding sticky inflation (headline PCE at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.3%), the federal funds rate remained paused in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Concurrently, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.78% from 4.19% earlier in the year. Khoo views yields near 5% as a return to historical norms rather than an emergency, driven by growth and inflation expectations. The resulting steepening yield curve expands net interest margins for commercial banks and insurers while benefiting private credit funds. To cap spiraling debt-servicing costs, the U.S. Treasury has intervened directly by doubling its long-term debt buybacks to $4 billion per month. September Seasonality Realities and Execution Discipline (20:43) Although September is statistically the weakest calendar month for equities, Khoo cautions investors against attempting to liquidate holdings or short the index in anticipation of a dip. Historical market records since 1950 demonstrate that September can yield strong contrarian advances between 6% and 8%, with five of the ten best historical Septembers occurring during midterm election cycles. Attempting to time seasonal swings frequently leads to unforced execution errors. Khoo emphasizes behavioral discipline, urging investors to eliminate fear of missing out (FOMO) and avoid panic selling during normal pullbacks. Using the rule of not chasing overextended rallies, he instructs traders to wait for price pullbacks toward established dynamic support zones before committing capital, focusing systematically on quality compounders with high returns on invested capital rather than reacting to short-term volatility. Khoo concludes that the primary market trend points toward a higher year-end close, supported by corporate earnings that have successfully absorbed macroeconomic headwinds and rising bond yields. However, his thesis assumes that corporate margins and earnings momentum will continue to outpace persistent inflation and higher-for-longer baseline interest rates.

Source quotes

[0:11] Adam Khoo: the path of least resistance is up. [5:29] Adam Khoo: Oh, I'm tired of winning, [9:19] Adam Khoo: an earnings driven market, [13:39] Adam Khoo: purely for entertainment purposes. [20:43] Adam Khoo: part of the grand plan. [22:19] Adam Khoo: Don't FOMO, don't panic. [22:19] Adam Khoo: Don't chase the girl. Just follow the rules. Adam Khoo: MAY THE MARKETS BE WITH YOU!

Original transcript

[0:11] Hi guys, it's the first of the month, [0:13] the 1st of September, and as always, I [0:15] kick off uh the first of the month with [0:17] my market analysis and update. So, we [0:21] have got about four more months left for [0:23] the rest of the year. And let's begin by [0:25] looking at the S&P 500. I'm using the [0:27] spy ETF as a proxy. Uh, and let's take a [0:32] look at the the charts first. So, first [0:34] of all, the charts suggest that we [0:36] continue to be on a very clear uptrend [0:37] as you can see as we have got the very [0:40] nice uptrend pattern over there. And if [0:42] we look at the uh daily time frame, we [0:45] can see the 20 EMA, the red dotted line [0:48] above the 40 EMA. So, for those of you [0:51] who have taken my courses, you know that [0:52] when the 20 EMA is above the 40 EMA, [0:56] that means the short-term trend is up. [0:59] And then we look at the 50 moving [1:01] average, the blue line, and we can see [1:03] the the 50 is above the 150 green line, [1:06] which means the medium-term trend is up. [1:09] And then we've got the 200 day moving [1:11] average in red, and that's sloping up as [1:13] well, telling us that the longer term [1:16] trend is up as well. So the short-term [1:18] trend is up, medium-term trend is up, [1:20] long-term trend is up. So the path of [1:23] least resistance is up. Okay? So until [1:27] the trend changes, the probability is [1:29] that prices will continue to move higher [1:32] towards the end of the year. Uh but as [1:34] always remember that on an uptrend, [1:37] prices don't go up every day, every week [1:40] or in fact every month, right? They go [1:42] through wave patterns. uh you've got you [1:44] know wave up, wave down, wave up, wave [1:46] down, wave up, wave down, wave up, wave [1:48] down and of course the pattern [1:51] continues. So you can see that in March [1:53] this year uh we had this correction over [1:56] here and the 20 crossed below the 40. [1:59] The red dotted line crossed below the [2:01] blue dotted line which mean that means [2:03] the short-term trend went down but the [2:07] medium-term trend and the long-term [2:08] trend continued going higher even though [2:11] the 50 crossed below the 150 but the 150 [2:14] was sloping up and the 200 sloping up so [2:17] the medium-term trend was very much [2:18] intact. Right? If you see the 50 [2:21] crossing below the 150 and they start [2:24] sloping down and the red line slopes [2:27] down, then that is a likely bare market. [2:30] So, we are nowhere near there. We on a [2:32] very very clear uptrend. [2:35] And uh if we zoom to a larger time [2:38] frame, we look at the weekly time frame [2:40] now on the weekly candles, you can see [2:42] the trend a lot clearer, right? So, [2:44] you've got a wave up, wave down, wave [2:46] up, wave down, wave up. Big wave down [2:48] here. That was um [2:51] uh Trump's tariff liberation day that [2:54] almost caused a bare market. Then the [2:56] market retrace, wave down, wave up, wave [2:59] down, wave up, wave down, wave up, [3:00] slight wave down over there. So for [3:03] those of you who are dollar cost [3:05] averaging into the S&P 500 ETF, again, [3:09] you can look at the SPY. For non US [3:13] residents, we usually would add the CSPX [3:17] because it has got no estate tax risk [3:20] and it's got lower withholding tax on [3:22] dividends. Some of you may look at um [3:24] VO, which is a uh another S&P ETF with [3:28] lower management fee. So, it doesn't [3:30] matter which one you want to add, SPY, [3:32] V, CSPX, all the same thing. All track [3:34] the S&P 500. And for those of you who do [3:38] uh you can see these support levels that [3:40] I update every month and the latest [3:43] support level would be number one at 743 [3:47] and 672 [3:49] uh 604 and 548. So these are the four [3:52] support levels uh for the S&P 500. And [3:56] again you can see why that is the first [3:58] support level because it coincides with [4:00] the 20 EMA. So the 20 EMA the red dotted [4:03] line acts as the first support. So [4:06] whenever there's a small wave down, [4:08] boom, it bounces off, bounces off, [4:10] bounces off. All right? So if it [4:12] retraces there, it tends to bounce off [4:14] that 20 EMA. So that is a small [4:17] retracement. Of course, if it breaks the [4:19] 20, then it could be a bigger pullback [4:23] or bigger correction. Then we look at [4:25] the subsequent support levels where if I [4:28] go to the monthly candles, you can see [4:30] why I drew it. [4:32] This support level coincides with the 20 [4:34] EMA on monthly candles, right? Very [4:37] strong toing, right? So, you'll you'll [4:39] bounce off there if it goes down there [4:41] or it may bounce off there, right? [4:43] That's the probability. Next support [4:45] level at 604 coincides with the 40 EMA [4:48] on monthly candles. And then the last [4:50] support level 548 coincides with the 50 [4:54] moving average on monthly candles. So [4:56] all these support levels coincide with [4:59] major support levels based on dynamic [5:01] moving averages or historical uh [5:04] horizontal support patterns. As you know [5:06] September tends to be historically the [5:09] weakest month of the year. And of course [5:11] the question is Adam if we go down in [5:12] September how much will we go down? Well [5:15] that's your answer. [5:17] Probability is that if we go down in [5:19] September we will find support at these [5:22] support levels more likely at about 743. [5:25] I I don't think it's going to go to 672 [5:27] in September. Okay. So, year-to- date [5:29] performance. Uh year to date, you can [5:32] see the S&P 500 is up 11.75% [5:35] year-to date. The Dow Jones Industrials [5:38] up 9.94%. The NASDAQ 100 tech heavy [5:42] NASDAQ up 16.86% and the small cap index [5:46] surprisingly small caps outperforming [5:48] this year at 18.64%. [5:51] And uh my portfolio year to date is up [5:54] uh based on a timew weighted basis about [5:57] 20%. All right. Based on a market [5:59] weighted basis is up 25%. So so far [6:02] beating the index this year again. Oh, [6:05] I'm tired of winning. Tired of winning. [6:07] I'm just kidding. Okay. Uh in terms of [6:10] sector breakdown, uh we can see that for [6:13] the month that just passed, uh the best [6:15] performing sector was basic materials. [6:18] Boo. Right? Why? Because you guys know [6:21] that I don't invest in basic material [6:23] companies. These are commodity [6:25] companies. I avoid because long run [6:27] commodity companies are very cyclical, [6:30] very unpredictable, low margins, weak [6:33] economic mode. Right? So I avoid uh [6:35] commodity companies. Okay? But there's [6:37] one I own which is not really a [6:39] commodity company. All right? It's a [6:41] group within commodity is group within [6:43] basic materials but it is not. It is [6:45] Lind Group. Ticker symbol L I N because [6:47] they're in industrial gas. They [6:50] manufacture your own gas so it's not [6:52] subjected to [6:55] uh natural gas prices. All right. So [6:57] it's very predictable. Yeah, that's the [6:59] only exception. Uh technology has done [7:02] very well this month as well. Yay. [7:04] Right. Especially not just uh [7:05] semiconductors and AI capex stocks. But [7:08] software is coming back. Yay. Right. [7:11] Healthcare the third best performer. You [7:13] guys know that I'm also quite into [7:15] healthcare. Energy also did pretty well. [7:18] Boo. you know you guys know I don't go [7:19] into energy again long run very [7:21] unpredictable [7:23] um you know but of course in a short [7:25] term they can do very well because of [7:27] geopolitics you know so this year [7:29] because of the the war in Iran [7:32] uh and oil energy has done the best you [7:35] know of course I don't participate in it [7:37] because I don't hold hold any energy [7:38] stocks and that's fine because long run [7:41] uh I do a lot better holding the more [7:43] secular [7:44] compounding sectors with higher margins [7:47] and stronger modes and higher roe and [7:50] ROIC's. Okay. Uh and of course uh for [7:53] this month the rest didn't do as well. [7:55] You know financials, industrials, [7:58] consumer cyclicals and uh the worst [8:01] performing have been communication [8:02] services uh consumer defensive real [8:06] estate and utilities. These two I don't [8:08] really care because I don't own any real [8:10] estate. I don't own any utility [8:12] companies. Okay, except for REITs. But [8:15] then again that's in my dividend [8:16] portfolio. So separate issue year to [8:18] date energy is the best performer [8:20] because of oil prices going up because [8:22] of the war in Iran. Uh tech uh has [8:26] always been a best performer most of the [8:28] time. Basic materials, industrials, [8:30] healthcare, real estate. So most sectors [8:33] are doing pretty well yearto date. Uh [8:36] the only ones not doing as well negative [8:38] utilities which I don't really hold. [8:40] communication services I hold a lot [8:43] which includes uh Meta uh Google and [8:46] Netflix these are the three biggest [8:49] communication services and and meta is [8:51] down for the year Netflix is down for [8:53] the year but I don't uh mind because [8:56] I've been accumulating shares long run [8:57] they will do very well in my opinion and [9:00] of course consumer cyclical or known as [9:02] consumer discretionary also negative for [9:05] the year which I have a lot of them [9:07] right I've got you know AutoZone I've [9:09] got Macado Libre way you know Amazon [9:11] right so by the way Amazon is within [9:13] consumer discretionary don't ask me why [9:16] that's how they they group it okay so [9:19] where are we in terms of valuation so as [9:21] you guys know if you read the uh [9:24] financial media the fake news I'm just [9:27] kidding again right I love to imitate [9:29] the guy um if you you know listen to the [9:32] news and all that people keep saying oh [9:33] market's expensive it's a bubble blah [9:35] blah blah well let's look at the facts [9:38] once again so first of or we look at the [9:41] forward price to earnings ratio of the [9:43] market which I don't think is the best [9:45] way to value it but never mind. Uh as of [9:48] 31st August yesterday the forward PE of [9:51] the S&P 500 is 19.6 times earnings. Is [9:55] that high or low? Well, if you compare [9:57] it with the 5-year average, the 5year [10:00] average is 19.9. So we are below the [10:02] 5year average and the 10ear average is [10:05] 19 times earnings. So in other words, [10:07] you can say based on this, we are fairly [10:10] priced. We're not cheap. We're not [10:12] expensive. We are fairly priced as a [10:14] whole on the S&P 500. What's interesting [10:16] is at the start of the year in January [10:19] this year, the forward PE ratio was 22 [10:23] times earnings right over there. Now [10:26] we're at 19.6 [10:29] times earnings. So what does it mean? It [10:31] means the market is cheaper today than [10:35] it was at the start of the year despite [10:38] the market going up 13%. [10:42] How is it possible? How can the market [10:44] go up 13% and is now cheaper? Because [10:48] even though the price went up, what [10:51] happened to the earnings? The earnings [10:53] went up even more than the price, right? [10:56] Corporate earnings have been higher than [10:59] expected. So that pulls the P down. So [11:02] what you can see is that the market [11:04] going up especially this year is the [11:07] result of higher corporate earnings. [11:10] It's a earnings driven market not a not [11:14] a PE multiple or not a uh money supply [11:18] driven market which is a good thing [11:19] which means it's is more sustainable. [11:21] Right. So speaking about earnings, as [11:23] you guys know, we just completed the [11:25] earnings season where most of the [11:26] companies reported earnings and one of [11:29] the latest ones was Nvidia and they [11:30] totally had a blowout earnings and [11:32] Nvidia stock price gapped up. Okay, so [11:36] for the earnings season that just [11:37] finished, it was quarter 2 earnings and [11:40] out of the uh out of the 11 sectors, [11:44] nine out of the 11 sectors reported [11:47] doubledigit earnings for quarter 2. Now, [11:50] what's amazing is this. Earlier this [11:52] year, they expected quarter 2 earnings [11:55] to grow 23%. [11:59] Yearon year. But when the results, now [12:02] that the results have come out for [12:03] quarter 2 earnings, you can see that the [12:05] actual earnings results uh showed 52% [12:09] earnings growth for the S&P 500. That is [12:12] freaking insane. 52% earnings growth, [12:16] double what was expected. And that's why [12:18] the market has been so strong this year [12:20] despite a war, despite a weak labor [12:24] market, despite the 10 year going up, [12:26] despite all that market so strong [12:29] because earnings earnings has been very [12:31] very strong. [12:36] Now, if we look underneath the hood and [12:39] we look at the the companies that make [12:41] up the S&P 500, we can see what [12:44] percentage are undervalued, overvalued, [12:46] fairly valued. And again, I'm looking at [12:48] Stock Oracle, which is a very useful [12:49] tool to look at. So, as of now, you can [12:52] see out of the 500 companies in the S&P, [12:56] how many are very cheap. Uh, you've got [12:59] 46 stocks that are very cheap. That's 9% [13:01] of the S&P. 104 stocks are undervalued. [13:05] That's 20% of the S&P. [13:08] 134 stocks or 26% are fairly priced. Are [13:12] there stocks that are expensive? Of [13:14] course. So, we've got 113 stocks that [13:17] are overvalued [13:19] and we've got 105 stocks that are very, [13:21] very overvalued. Yeah. And of course at [13:24] stock oracle if you click on these it [13:27] will show you exactly which are the [13:28] stocks that are overvalued undervalued [13:30] fairly valued and it breaks it down by [13:32] economic mode. Yeah. Green is wide mode, [13:35] yellow narrow mode, red is no mode. Next [13:39] let's take a look at what are the macro [13:41] updates for the month of August. Now as [13:43] you guys know uh I look at macro news [13:45] and data purely for entertainment [13:48] purposes. Are they important in my [13:50] investment decision? No. absolutely [13:53] zero. Okay, so I share this with you [13:56] purely for entertainment for general [13:59] knowledge but doesn't affect my buy and [14:02] sell decisions at all. Okay, so what [14:05] happened in the month of August? So some [14:07] interesting developments uh you can see [14:09] in the whole month the market was all [14:11] about the Fed Federal Reserve debating [14:14] should we increase rates, should we not [14:16] increase rates, right? So there's a lot [14:18] of debate within the Fed. they can't [14:19] agree because on one hand inflation is [14:22] not coming down but on the other hand [14:24] the labor market is weak so the hands [14:27] are tied at the Fed. So what happened [14:29] was on the 19th of August uh was the [14:32] July Fed meeting and they decided to [14:34] hold interest rates uh at the current [14:37] level which is the 3.5 to 3.75% range. [14:42] So that's the fat funds rate. Then 28th [14:44] August they have this annual symposium [14:47] at what is known as Jackson Hole where [14:50] the Fed chair Kevin Walsh gives his [14:53] speech and basically his speech uh told [14:55] us nothing. Okay. He shows that he [14:58] doesn't know what to do, right? So, what [15:00] he tried to do was he tried to signal [15:02] his hawkishness that oh, you know, we [15:04] may have to raise interest rates because [15:06] inflation is not coming down, you know, [15:08] but the market's like push it. Okay, [15:11] because we know that Trump kind of like [15:12] appointed him because Trump knows that, [15:14] you know, he won't raise rates as unless [15:17] he's forced to or rather Trump wants him [15:20] to cut rates. But anyway, uh the market [15:23] did increase the odds of a September [15:26] rate hike from uh from 40%. Now we've [15:29] got a 57% chance of the Fed raising the [15:33] Fed funds rate uh in September. Okay. Uh [15:38] what else has happened? So the long the [15:41] longterm rates, the 10ear Treasury yield [15:44] has has been going up. And some of you [15:46] are freaking out. Oh, Adam is now going [15:48] to 5%. We're going to die. Well, first [15:50] of all, understand that if you look at [15:52] the history of the 10-year Treasury [15:55] yield or the the the history of the US [15:59] long-term government bond, 5% is normal. [16:02] Okay, it is normal. It's just that what [16:05] happened after the global financial [16:07] crisis and COVID [16:11] where the Fed had to cut rates to zero [16:14] and the long-term [16:16] rate went down to 2 3%. That is [16:19] abnormal. Okay. So we had about 50 years [16:22] of abnormal rates where rates were [16:24] abnormally low. Right? So now there's no [16:27] more COVID, no more global financial [16:28] crisis and the economy is growing very [16:31] well. That's why the 10ear yield is [16:34] close to 5% which is normal. All right? [16:36] So don't freak out. Now if it goes to [16:38] like 5.56% [16:40] okay maybe get a bit worried, right? But [16:42] where it is right now it I don't see [16:45] much of an issue. Um remember that what [16:48] determines the the 10ear treasury bond [16:51] yield? Two things growth inflation. [16:55] All right. So when growth is high, all [16:58] right, uh the yields the long-term [17:01] yields get higher because people sell [17:03] long-term bonds boring to buy growth [17:07] assets, right? And of course, inflation [17:10] also causes the 10ear yield to be high [17:12] because when there's high inflation, [17:13] people want to hold long-term bonds. [17:15] they sell the bonds, the yield goes up. [17:17] So now that we've got growth and [17:19] inflation, that's why the 10-year yield [17:22] has been going up. Uh but of course the [17:24] US government doesn't like it so much [17:26] because if the yield goes up, that means [17:28] that when they issue more bonds, they [17:30] have to issue at a higher rates. They [17:32] have to pay more interest on their big [17:33] debt, right? So uh the Treasury has been [17:37] attempting to bring the yield down. How? [17:40] By buying back long-term bonds. So the [17:42] treasury is going into the market to buy [17:44] the bonds. When they buy the bonds, what [17:46] happens, right? More demand, bond price [17:50] goes up, yield comes down. They are [17:51] trying to do that. You know, that's what [17:53] they did. So now they are going to [17:55] double their buyback to 4 billion uh a [17:58] month. Well, let's see whether it works. [18:00] Now, in terms of some macroeconomic [18:02] data, uh the jobs in the US have been [18:05] softening. Yeah. So payrolls declined by [18:09] 23,000. That means they lost 23,000 jobs [18:13] uh in the month of July which is [18:14] reported in August. Not only that but [18:16] they had to revise down the initial uh [18:20] jobs report in May and June by 66,000 [18:23] and 37,000. So the labor market is weak [18:27] although the unemployment rate still [18:29] remains where it is but that's because a [18:31] lot of people are leaving the labor [18:32] market right. So labor market weak [18:34] inflation still uh not coming down. So [18:37] headline PC inflation at 3.7% yearonear [18:41] slightly above consensus core PC at 3.3% [18:44] and real GDP uh came in at 1.5%. [18:49] Which is down from 2.1% [18:51] uh estimate in quarter 1. Now you may [18:54] think all this is bearish, right? Weak [18:56] labor market, GDP not very strong. Why [18:59] is the market going up? Because [19:01] ironically the market thinks that if the [19:03] labor market is weak and GDP not very [19:06] strong the Fed won't raise rates and [19:09] that's why the market's going up. That's [19:11] why sometimes the market can be very [19:12] illogical and that's why I say you know [19:15] if you try to trade or invest based on [19:18] macro news you will pull your hair out [19:21] right because it's illogical sometimes [19:23] right GDP no good market goes up GDP [19:25] good market also go up right so you [19:28] can't tell you can't tell so all this is [19:29] for entertainment yeah all right so [19:33] that's the 10-year Treasury yield we [19:35] started the year at about 4.19% [19:38] now we're at 4.78% % we're at a high for [19:41] the year in terms of the long-term [19:43] treasury yield. Uh this is the yield [19:46] curve. So because the the long-term [19:48] yield is going up, the 10ear yield is [19:50] going up, right? It's going up. What's [19:52] happening? You've got the yield curve [19:54] which which is uh steepening. You've got [19:56] a steepening yield curve. Now is that [19:58] good or bad? Depends. If you own bank [20:01] stocks, you own insurance stocks is very [20:04] good. That's why banks are doing very [20:06] well because when the yield curve is [20:07] very steep, the banks can borrow cheap [20:10] and then give loans higher uh higher [20:14] interest rate, they make more money, [20:16] right? So, this is good uh for banks [20:20] and of course uh if the Fed raises the [20:23] short-term rate, uh then private credit [20:26] will do better. So, in fact, notice that [20:28] private credit has been rebounding uh [20:30] because uh when they thought that they [20:32] were going to cut short-term rates, they [20:34] now raise the long-term rates or rather [20:36] they're not they may raise the long-term [20:37] rates. So, that is good for private [20:39] credit where the loans are based on a [20:41] floating rate, right? Okay. So, let's [20:43] end off by talking about what do we [20:45] expect for the rest of the year. [20:46] Everyone wants a crystal ball. Again, [20:49] I've got no crystal ball. All I can tell [20:50] you is earnings are strong, market is on [20:53] an uptrend. So probability is that we'll [20:56] end up uh higher this year from where we [20:58] are right now. In terms of seasonality, [21:01] you can see I've shown you this chart [21:03] many times before. September [21:05] historically is the weakest month of the [21:08] year. So even in a midterm year, you can [21:11] see September tends to be negative. So [21:14] well, let's put it this way. Everyone [21:15] expects September to go down. Everyone. [21:18] And sometimes if everyone expects [21:19] something, it doesn't happen. It goes [21:21] up, right? So that's why I say don't say [21:23] oh and because of this I'll sell [21:25] everything in September buy back October [21:27] I'm going to short the market. No please [21:29] don't do that. All right I say this is [21:30] for entertainment. No one can predict [21:32] the market. This is for entertainment. I [21:35] show you this because if it does go down [21:37] don't freak out. It's part of the grand [21:40] plan. All right. But again it may not go [21:42] down. In fact you can see that since [21:44] 1950 these were Septembers that did very [21:47] well. You had September that went up 8% [21:50] 8% 6%. So you do have good Septembers, [21:55] right? And you can see that out of the [21:57] 10 best September since 1950, you know, [22:01] five of them happened in a midterm [22:03] election year. So don't be surprised [22:05] that, hey, September could go up 8%. [22:08] Now you're confused. Oh, is it going up [22:09] or down? I also don't know. That's the [22:12] point, right? We can't predict the [22:13] market. All right, so that concludes my [22:16] market analysis and update for September [22:19] and have a great September. And as [22:21] always, follow the rules. Don't foro, [22:24] don't panic. Don't chase the girl. Just [22:26] follow the rules.