Rolex Amasses $50 Billion Cash Hoard as Mechanical Watch Sales Beat Apple

机械表销量超苹果，劳力士坐拥500亿美元现金储备 劳力士通过冻结表款创新并依托私人基金会架构，在抵御技术冲击与市场低迷的同时，独揽瑞士制表业40%的利润。 本期节目按时间顺序详细回顾了劳力士的发展历程：从德国外来者汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）创立品牌，到如今发展为占据主导地位的全球奢侈品牌。主持人剖析了劳力士三大核心支柱的技术演进——天文台认证精度、防水蚝式（Oyster）表壳以及恒动（Perpetual）自动上链摆陀，并解释了该公司如何成功度过20世纪70年代毁灭性的石英危机。他们分析了劳力士从功能性计时器向精英地位象征转变的精妙之举，详细阐述了其战略性垂直整合、牢不可破的基金会所有权结构，以及占据整个瑞士手表市场估计30%份额的现代财务架构。 劳力士的运作充满了一系列悖论：它以比更先进的数字化后继产品高出10到1000倍的价格销售过时的机械工艺；在年产量超过100万枚的同时仍维持着极难排到的奢侈品等候名单；且由一家向日内瓦当地居民捐助资金的私人慈善基金会100%控股。 历史三大奢侈品牌创始人——路易·威登（Louis Vuitton）、蒂埃里·爱马仕（Thierry Hermès）与汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）均为19世纪的孤儿，这一共同背景形成了一种培养自立特质的“孤儿奢侈品偏向”。 汉斯·威尔斯多夫于1908年遵循乔治·伊士曼（George Eastman）创立柯达（Kodak）品牌的三大原则构想了“Rolex”这一名称：简短、在任何语言中都易于发音且毫无具体含义，同时在发音上模仿了给手表表冠上链的声音。 (28:32) 瑞士制表业声誉的历史渊源始于16世纪，当时约翰·加尔文（John Calvin）在日内瓦禁止佩戴装饰性珠宝，迫使当地金匠和珠宝商将金属加工技艺转向制造兼具实用功能的手表。 (49:01) 劳力士标志性的“蚝式”（Oyster）系统于1926年7月注册，采用螺纹密闭机制，底盖和表冠像潜水艇舱门一样直接旋紧在中层表壳上，从而打造出世界上第一款真正的防水腕表。 (60:00)

Acquired hosts Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal argue that Rolex's commercial dominance stems from an atypical corporate structure: owned entirely by a private charitable foundation, the company sidestepped quarterly market pressures to execute a conservative playbook of slow product iteration, complete vertical integration, and controlled retail scarcity. Foundation Ownership and Generational Strategy (200:12) Rolex's operational resilience is rooted in its ownership governance. In 1944, founder Hans Wilsdorf transferred 100% of the company's equity to the Hans Wilsdorf Foundation, which today distributes approximately 300 million Swiss francs annually in charitable giving across Geneva. Free from public disclosures, activist investors, and quarterly reporting demands, Rolex operated under extraordinary executive stability, guided by only three primary chief executives over nearly a century. This capital insulation enabled counter-cyclical strategic commitments during industry disruptions. When Japanese quartz movements triggered the Swiss "quartz crisis" in the 1970s and 1980s, Rolex managing director André Heiniger deliberately constrained quartz production, doubling down on mechanical calibers on the premise that mechanical movements would endure as luxury art rather than commoditized utilities. Similarly, during the 2008 financial crisis, while competitors discounted inventory and cut promotional budgets, Rolex maintained its retail pricing and expanded marketing investments in key markets like the United States. The Porsche 911 Design Paradigm (192:39) Rather than releasing frequent, radical redesigns, Rolex anchored its identity around six or seven core tool models established in the mid-20th century, such as the Submariner, GMT-Master, and Daytona. The hosts compare this discipline to the Porsche 911 automotive philosophy: once a signature platform is perfected, the firm simply applies incremental engineering refinements every seven to eight years. While horological critics often note that Rolex ceased fundamental category innovation after its 1950s golden era, the hosts argue this stability was the brand's primary marketing masterstroke. This continuous aesthetic prevents older purchases from suffering perceived technological obsolescence. Unlike modern consumer electronics, a Rolex purchased decades prior remains visually and mechanically aligned with contemporary catalog offerings. By ensuring that legacy timepieces retain parity with new releases, Rolex validated buyer equity, reinforced the secondary investment market, and transformed the mechanical wristwatch into an enduring, socially accepted piece of men's jewelry. Industrial Consolidation and Vertical Scale (209:22) Beginning in the 1990s under CEO Patrick Heiniger, Rolex dismantled the traditional Swiss établissement model of decentralized, third-party component suppliers. Heiniger executed a multi-decade vertical integration program that collapsed Rolex's external supply base from 27 independent suppliers down to 4 heavily consolidated manufacturing facilities in Switzerland. Key milestones included the 2004 acquisition of longtime movement manufacturer Aegler for a reported ~1 billion Swiss francs, the absorption of bracelet manufacturers, and the creation of proprietary in-house foundries to cast specialized metals like Oystersteel and Everose gold. This vertical consolidation allowed Rolex to exploit industrial scale economies out of reach for smaller houses. Today, Rolex leverages specialized manufacturing processes such as ultraviolet lithography to etch zero-tolerance gears for the Daytona chronograph. Backed by a lean workforce of roughly 16,000 employees worldwide, Rolex generates an estimated $10 billion in annual revenue, enabling it to manufacture over one million watches per year while applying rigorous safety margins, such as testing dive watches with a 25% depth tolerance buffer. Channel Isolation and Defensive Retail Strategy (229:06) Rolex's retail architecture relies on a deliberate separation between the factory and end buyers. Distributing exclusively through third-party authorized dealers (ADs), the brand historically captured massive wholesale leverage without directly managing end-consumer retail operations. Securing a Rolex wholesale account effectively made a jeweler a "made man," generating immense foot traffic that subsidized sales of high-margin jewelry and rival watch brands. This dynamic explains Rolex's break from tradition in acquiring its primary retail partner, Bucherer. The hosts explain that the purchase was entirely defensive rather than an attempt to capture retail margins. Because the Bucherer family had no remaining heirs, an outside acquisition by a publicly traded conglomerate such as LVMH would have given a competitor direct visibility into Rolex's private production volumes, logistics, and allocation data. Buying Bucherer preserved the private curtain shielding Rolex's distribution network. The hosts conclude that Rolex occupies an optimal position on the economic curve, manufacturing more than one million watches annually while sustaining multi-year waitlists. However, because the enterprise is fully private and consolidated under a non-profit foundation, outside corporate valuations remain wide estimates—ranging from $40 billion to $200 billion based on operating comparisons to Hermès and Porsche—leaving Rolex's exact balance sheet and profitability hidden from view.

节目主理人认为，劳力士（Rolex）的核心商业奇迹在于打破了传统高级奢侈品严控低产量的桎梏，在年产超百万只手表的大工业规模下，依然维持了极高的品牌溢价、稀缺性与候补名单；其依托汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会（Hans Wilsdorf Foundation）的非营利所有权架构，彻底摆脱了公开资本市场的短期季度压力，从而能践行长达数十年的垂直整合与克制的渐进式微调战略。 功能性工具定位与早期品类确立 (28:32) 劳力士由汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）与阿尔弗雷德·戴维斯（Alfred Davis）于1905年在伦敦创立。威尔斯多夫具有深刻的“欧洲局外人”特质，敏锐捕捉到第二次布尔战争中军人使用腕表协同战术的趋势，极具前瞻性地将业务重心全面押注在腕表品类。为破除公众对腕表走时精度的怀疑，劳力士联手机芯工匠埃格勒（Aegler），分别于1910年与1914年斩获瑞士钟表学校认证及英国基尤皇家天文台认证。一战后，劳力士将总部迁往中立国瑞士日内瓦，兼具美学传统与精密制造优势。 在品牌创立早期，劳力士定位为可靠的功能性工具，而非专供顶级富豪的奢侈装饰。1926年，劳力士推出具备全面防尘防水性能的蚝式（Oyster）表壳，并在1927年通过梅赛德斯·吉莉斯（Mercedes Gleitze）长达10小时横渡英吉利海峡的实战壮举开创了事件营销先河；1931年又成功为360度旋转自动陀申请专利。二战后，劳力士相继推出日志型（Datejust）、深潜工具表潜航者型（Submariner）、应对跨洋时差的格林尼治型（GMT-Master）以及赛车计时码表迪通拿（Daytona），逐步确立了享誉全球的标志性专业腕表矩阵。 石英危机中的逆向押注与奢侈品重塑 (187:19) 20世纪70年代，基于压电效应与集成电路的石英钟表技术由日本厂商大规模商业化，精工（Seiko）等品牌凭借无死角运行的液晶显示与极致走时精度迅速席卷全球，重创传统瑞士钟表业。时任劳力士掌门人安德烈·海尼格（André Heiniger）做出了关键的逆向战略决策：他断定石英技术终将廉价化并沦为大众电子消费品，而高质量的机械机芯所蕴含的复杂工艺、手工美学与精密传统，将成为高净值人群彰显社会地位与审美品味的稀缺奢侈品。劳力士虽研发了角型外壳的Oysterquartz，但严格限制其产能，坚决捍卫机械表的核心地位。 节目主理人指出，劳力士在此期间重新厘清了自身的“待完成任务”（Job to be done）——从基础计时转向成就衡量与身份叙事。与过度消耗资源跟进石英潮流且陷入经营困境的竞争对手欧米茄（Omega）不同，劳力士选择在黄金时代之后基本“冻结”革命性外观研发，转向类似保时捷911的产品哲学：七至八年仅对表壳与细节做毫米级微调。这种保守主义避免了新款迭代让旧款贬值，不仅强化了消费者的持有信心，更直接催生了庞大的二级市场保值与收藏交易热潮。 基金会所有权与深度的垂直整合 (200:12) 劳力士在商业竞争中具备无与伦比的制度级安全边际。创始人威尔斯多夫在第一任妻子离世后于1944年设立了汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会，并将公司100%的所有权悉数注入。该基金会完全免于向公众披露财务报表，如今每年向日内瓦当地慈善项目捐赠约3亿瑞士法郎。主理人强调，由于没有外部股东的短期财报压力，劳力士在近一个世纪内仅历经极少数核心首席执行官；面对2008年全球金融危机等系统性冲击，竞品纷纷削减开支与打折促销，劳力士则保持官方售价稳定，并逆势加码美国市场的长期体育营销赞助。 在帕特里克·海尼格（Patrick Heiniger）接班后，劳力士启动了历时数十年的激进垂直整合工程。为消除分散外协体系带来的品质公差，劳力士将外部供应商由27家大幅削减并收归至瑞士境内的4大专属生产基地，并在2004年以传闻约10亿瑞士法郎的资金全资收购了百年来为其提供精密机芯的埃格勒公司。劳力士还自建冶炼工坊配比独家Oystersteel钢材与永恒玫瑰金（Everose gold），甚至应用紫外光刻技术制造微型传动齿轮，以不计成本的规模经济筑造了深厚的工程技术护城河。 渠道控制、副牌缓冲与规模化甜区 (223:46) 劳力士的终端触角完全依赖于精选的独立授权经销商（AD）。尽管品牌长期隔绝于终端消费者的具体数据之外，但拥有劳力士销售授权被零售商视作行业最高的特许护身符，具有极强的客流牵引力。针对2023年劳力士反常收购其最大渠道伙伴宝齐莱（Bucherer）的举措，主理人分析认为此举纯属防御性策略：在宝齐莱家族缺乏法定继承人的节点，劳力士必须阻止LVMH等上市奢侈品巨头竞购，以免关键零售网络的财务透明化导致劳力士核心出货规模与商业机密曝光。 与此同时，劳力士在1926年创立的副牌帝舵（Tudor）并不承担消化主品牌富余产能的排气阀功能，而是作为品牌前线的“创新实验室”与防护盾，用于测试前卫材质与激进设计，以此护航劳力士主品牌的纯粹性。主理人总结称，劳力士以约1.6万名员工撬动约100亿美元年销售额，若按40%营运利润率及爱马仕或保时捷的估值乘数换算，其理论企业价值在400亿至2000亿美元之间。劳力士未选择百达翡丽般的超小众路线，而是将单表售价精准锚定在约1万美元——恰好处于中产专业精英阶层“略感肉痛但能够触及”的心理阈值，由此达成了年产超百万只却常年一表难求的商业平衡。 节目总结指出，劳力士的基业长青并非来自违背商业常识的激进投机，而是建立在数十年如一日的产品克制、制造规模与不妥协的工程品控之上；但在苹果等智能手表出货量全面超越整个瑞士钟表工业总和的当下，如何在高度隔绝终端客群的授权经销体系下平衡多重候补名单积攒的公关摩擦，并延续机械腕表作为成年男性核心成就象征的文化共识，仍是劳力士长期经营中未完全化解的潜在考验。

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=0s) 开场：手腕上的劳力士与节目的伏笔 节目一开场，Ben Gilbert 询问 David Rosenthal 手腕上戴着什么表。David 表示自己佩戴的是父亲大约 15 年前赠送的不锈钢白盘迪通拿（Rolex Daytona）；尽管当年这款腕表就已经相当受欢迎，但其热度与今天的盛况仍不可同日而语。Ben 则借了一位节目好友的同款迪通拿佩戴，并透露了一个录制花絮：在专访台积电创始人张忠谋（Morris Chang）时，Ben 手腕上特意戴着这块表，以此作为劳力士主题节目的隐藏伏笔。此外，David 手边还放着父亲很多年前送的另一枚劳力士——间金款日志型（Rolesor Datejust）。Ben 随即打趣让他两只手腕各戴一块。 伴随着标志性的片头曲，两位主持人宣布 Acquired 2025 年春季正式回归。Ben 从计时的本质切入：计时只需要一件以恒定速率发生的事情，以及一种记录其频率的方式——它可以是沙漏中的流沙，可以是落地钟里重力拉动游丝并由钟摆滴答调校的指针，也可以是佩戴在手腕上、由数百个精密弹簧与齿轮驱动的机械腕表。 --- ### [01:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=102s) 劳力士的层层悖论：最神秘的百亿奢侈品巨头 本期节目的核心主题是充满无数反常理现象的劳力士（Rolex）。Ben 与 David 指出，劳力士是现代商业史上最迷人也最令人称奇的“悖论集合体”： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士的核心商业悖论 accDescr: 展示劳力士在知名度、所有权、生产规模与创始背景上相互冲突的四大商业特征 subgraph Paradoxes["劳力士的四大商业悖论"] direction TB P1["名声与透明度<br/>全球知名度最高<br/>VS 运作如情报机构般保密"] P2["产量与稀缺感<br/>年产超百万只，均价$13,000<br/>VS 排队难求，二手即刻溢价"] P3["产地与血统<br/>最纯正的瑞士钟表代表<br/>VS 创始人非瑞士人且在英国起步"] P4["技术与价值<br/>卖落后机械工具获超百亿美元收入<br/>VS 计时精准度落后于廉价电子表"] end P1 --- P2 P2 --- P3 P3 --- P4 ``` - **极高知名度与极度保密的对立**：尽管劳力士品牌享誉全球，但它几乎是外界了解最少的商业巨头。劳力士完全由日内瓦的慈善机构汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会（Hans Wilsdorf Foundation）持有，无需对外公开任何财务数据，其低调与保密程度甚至超过宜家（IKEA）和玛氏（Mars），“运作起来犹如情报机构”。 - **庞大产能与顶级奢侈排他性的并存**：零售门店外往往有着深不见底的漫长等待名单，然而劳力士每年实际出货量超过 100 万只，均价高达约 13,000 美元。出店即溢价的现象极为普遍。相比之下，爱马仕（Hermès）每年售出的铂金包（Birkin）数量只有劳力士年销量的约十分之一。 - **瑞士名片与异乡创始人的错位**：劳力士是瑞士钟表工业无可争议的代名词，然而其创始人汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）既不是瑞士人，最初也并未在瑞士创立这家公司。 - **机械落后性与商业暴利的抗衡**：作为年营收超过百亿美元的巨头，劳力士销售的是被数字化浪潮淘汰的机械计时技术，其精准度甚至远不如几美元的卡西欧（Casio）或 Apple Watch，但大众对它的渴求却达到了历史顶峰。 两位主持人强调，正如当年的 NFL 专题不是关于橄榄球、NBA 专题不是关于篮球一样，本期节目核心并不是讨论钟表鉴赏，而是探讨**钟表背后的商业与品牌构筑机制**。在进入正文前，节目鸣谢了官方合作伙伴摩根大通支付（J.P. Morgan Payments），并介绍了访谈衍生节目 ACQ2 最近对话 Vercel 创始人 Guillermo Rauch 探讨 Web 开发演进与 v0 的精彩内容。 --- ### [05:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=350s) 边缘游走者：汉斯·威尔斯多夫的早年身世与孤儿定律 故事回溯到 19 世纪的欧洲。1881 年 3 月 22 日，汉斯·埃伯哈德·威廉·威尔斯多夫（Hans Eberhard Wilhelm Wilsdorf）出生于现今德国巴伐利亚州的库尔姆巴赫（Kulmbach，位于纽伦堡以北约 30 英里）。 当时的巴伐利亚虽然在十年前被奥托·冯·俾斯麦（Count Otto von Bismarck）在普法战争击败拿破仑三世后并入德意志帝国，但老一辈巴伐利亚人对“德国人”这一新兴国家认同十分疏离。更为特殊的是，威尔斯多夫家族是新教徒，这使他们在信奉天主教为主的巴伐利亚地区成为了双重少数派。这种特殊的成长背景注定了汉斯从出生起就是一个彻头彻尾的“局外人”（Consummate Outsider）：他没有根深蒂固的国家归属或宗教阵营，天生漂泊于欧洲文明的缝隙之中。 汉斯的父亲约翰（Johan Wilsdorf）来自当地富裕的五金商人（Ironmonger）家族，汉斯原本大概率会继承家族铁器生意。然而在汉斯 12 岁时，父母在短短数月内相继病逝，留下他和兄弟姐妹沦为孤儿。 David 与 Ben 借此指出了一个惊人的历史巧合：路易·威登（Louis Vuitton）、蒂埃里·爱马仕（Thierry Hermès）与汉斯·威尔斯多夫——全球三大顶级奢侈品牌的缔造者，全部都是 19 世纪失去双亲的孤儿。这种出身打破了奢侈品牌必然背靠欧洲皇室血统的刻板印象： - 劳力士所售卖的并不是国王或贵族的传世马鞍与皮箱； - 戴上劳力士潜航者型（Submariner）、迪通拿或日志型，消费者购买的并非几百年的瑞士封建皇权历史，而是 20 世纪的“现代主义”。 汉斯父母去世后，几位叔叔接管了抚养权，并变卖了家族的五金生意，将变现资金用来资助孩子们前往寄宿学校接受教育。汉斯在 1945 年劳力士成立 40 周年（红宝石禧年）出版的四卷本自传中深情回忆道： > “叔父们并非对我们的命运漠不关心；但他们让我很早就学会了自立，使我养成了爱护自己财物的习惯。回顾过去，我相信自己的很大一部分成功都要归功于此。” 在巴伐利亚的寄宿学校里，汉斯展现出了顶尖的学习天赋，尤其在数学和外语（尤其是英语）方面成绩斐然。在那里，他结识了一位来自瑞士的朋友，自此对瑞士产生了浓厚的向往。在巴伐利亚已无牵无挂的汉斯，毕业后决定离开德国前往瑞士日内瓦，正式拉开了钟表帝国的序幕。 ### [10:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=658s) 瑞士表业的出口枢纽：汉斯·威尔斯多夫在 Kuno Korten 的学徒岁月 汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）在日内瓦的第一份工作是在一家大型珍珠贸易商处任职，业务模式是从渔民手中收购天然珍珠，再转售给日内瓦当地声名显赫的瑞士珠宝商。随后，他跳槽到一家毗邻珠宝行业的本地贸易公司——库诺·科尔腾（Kuno Korten）。在瑞士，除了银行业以外，最核心的支柱产业正是钟表业；正如节目中所调侃的，"你得先有实业能存钱，银行才能运转起来"——瑞士人先做珠宝与钟表，才孕育出了庞大的银行业。 Kuno Korten 在当时的钟表贸易圈举足轻重。他们本身并非钟表制造商，而是专业表类出口商，负责将全瑞士最优质的钟表销往全球。到了 19 世纪 90 年代末，该公司每年的业务量已高达约 100 万瑞士法郎。在那个时代，100 万法郎（约合当年的 100 万美元）是一笔难以想象的巨款，这也印证了钟表出口在当时已是瑞士经济的命脉与最主要的雇主之一。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 19世纪末瑞士钟表贸易出口链路 accDescr: 展示了从瑞士钟表工匠到国际零售渠道的完整流转过程。 subgraph SwissSide["瑞士本土产业链"] Makers["钟表制造商与各零部件作坊"] Kuno["Kuno Korten 出口商<br/>(年贸易额约100万瑞郎)"] end subgraph GlobalMarket["海外分销市场"] Jewelers["英国等海外珠宝零售商"] Consumers["终端消费者"] end Makers --> Kuno Kuno -->|汉斯·威尔斯多夫统筹联络| Jewelers Jewelers --> Consumers ``` - **时代背景下的钟表形态**：此时所说的钟表绝非腕表（Wristwatch），而是怀表（Pocket watch）。由于怀表体积大，机芯无需极为微型化的精密工具即可达成预期走时精度，具备更大的安全容错空间。当时任何尝试戴在手腕上的表不仅极其脆弱、走时奇差，且更多被视作首饰饰品，被称为“腕饰”（wristlets），几乎全由女性佩戴。 - **关键卡位与商业直觉**：汉斯在 Kuno Korten 担任文秘（Secretary），凭借极其出色的英语才能，专门统筹对接英国市场的所有往来信件与商务协调。他恰好坐在了整个钟表产业链的咽喉要道上：一端透彻了解瑞士本土生产制造环节与价值链分布，洞悉各家表厂与零部件的行情波动；另一端则直接掌握了英国珠宝零售商（即关键的分销渠道）。这为他日后创办劳力士积累了无可比拟的市场与分销资源。 --- ### [15:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=908s) 精度执念与天文台认证的商业启蒙 汉斯不仅深谙钟表贸易的商业逻辑，还彻底迷恋上了机械钟表本身的运行与性能。他养成了一个习惯：每晚下班时，顺手带一批公司经营的怀表回家进行走时精度测试。他把所有表对准同一时间，放上一整夜，第二天清晨再逐一核对它们彼此之间的走时偏差。 某天，汉斯突发奇想，从近期测试中挑选出走时极准的 3 块怀表，亲自送往当地的天文台（Astronomical Observatory），接受严苛的天文台计时测试——即“天文台表认证”（Chronometer Certification）。所谓天文台认证，最初是专为远洋航海天体导航量身定制的，在当时若没有超高精度的计时器，海上船只就极易在导航中迷失方向甚至遭遇海难。 - **降维打击的营销顿悟**：普通大众平日只需听着教堂钟声给怀表对时，从来没有人会给民用怀表送检天文台。然而汉斯送去的那 3 块怀表居然全部顺利通过测试并获得了官方认证。当他兴奋地把证书拿回公司时，老板们敏锐地意识到这一卖点的威力，感叹道“赶紧把它印在包装盒上！”这也成了 Kuno Korten 乃至整个制表业的启蒙时刻——拥有天文台认证的怀表能极大地促进销售。如今劳力士表盘上印有的“Superlative Chronometer Officially Certified”（顶级天文台精密时计官方认证），其根源正是汉斯青年时期的这次探索。 - **19 世纪的“智能手机”**：在当时及随后的一百多年里，拥有一块钟表并非单纯的时尚点缀，而是生存的必需品，其地位犹如当今的智能手机。一个人出门不带怀表就会陷入失去掌控的恐慌；怀表甚至承担了类似现代手机的“解压玩具”功能——当人们在社交场合感到局促或在排队无所事事时，掏出怀表、按开表盖把玩，成了全社会的普遍下意识举止。 --- ### [18:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=1134s) 远赴伦敦：威尔斯多夫与戴维斯公司（Wilsdorf & Davis）的诞生 在 Kuno Korten 工作数年并频繁与英国打交道后，汉斯在 1903 年做出决定：凭借自己过人的英语能力以及对伦敦的好感，他在 22 岁那年毅然移居伦敦。他在当地一家钟表公司工作了两年（后世学者翻遍史料也未能查出该公司的确切名称）。汉斯后来在回忆录中写道，英国雇主的两大特点给他留下了极深刻的印记：“一方面是他们出色的商业经营能力，而另一方面则是他们缺乏专业化深耕（lack of specialization）。” 凭借在此期间积累的见识与自信，年仅 24 岁的汉斯在 1905 年决定独立创业。他的目标是在伦敦成立一家自己的钟表进口贸易商行，从瑞士引进高质量表款并打上自己的品牌销售，独享全部商业利润。然而，这面临着一个最根本的现实障碍：下单订货需要充足的启动资金。 - **寻找资本与合伙人**：通过代理律师的引荐，汉斯结识了一位手头拥有闲置资本可供投资的伦敦本地人——阿尔弗雷德·詹姆斯·戴维斯（Alfred James Davis）。两人一见如故，迅速敲定合作意向。 - **劳力士前身的成立**：1905 年，享誉全球的钟表商贸公司“威尔斯多夫与戴维斯有限公司”（Wilsdorf & Davis Limited）正式注册成立——这正是日后劳力士（Rolex）的前身。 - **合伙关系的本质**：虽然普遍传闻称戴维斯是汉斯的妹夫（戴维斯后来迎娶了汉斯的妹妹安娜 Anna），但事实上这一婚姻发生在两人合伙创业之后，安娜大概率是通过汉斯才认识了戴维斯。该公司的灵魂完全在于威尔斯多夫，戴维斯扮演的主要是早期财务出资人的角色，正如雅达利（Atari）早年若是被称为“布什内尔与瓦伦丁”（Bushnell & Valentine）一样，戴维斯的名字虽在招牌上，但公司的真正操盘者始终是汉斯。 ### [21:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=1295s) 钟表产业链的暗箱与无名进口商 汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）与妹夫阿尔弗雷德·戴维斯（Alfred Davis）合伙成立了“威尔斯多夫与戴维斯”（Wilsdorf & Davis）公司。虽然戴维斯提供了资金支持，但公司的掌舵人是汉斯，戴维斯给予了他完全的信任。公司的商业蓝图建立在汉斯过往的职业经验上：将全球品质最高、瑞士制造的手表进口到需求旺盛的伦敦市场。然而在那个年代，他们并不直接面向普通消费者。如同汉斯之前在库诺·科滕（Cuno Korten）公司一样，买家全都是下游的零售商和珠宝商。 当时的钟表市场存在一个极其不可思议的怪象：终端消费者根本不知道自己的手表究竟是谁生产的。顾客走进高端珠宝店，要求购买一块“上乘的瑞士手表”，店员从柜台拿出一只表，表盘上赫然印着的是这家零售商的名字。消费者只能盲目信任零售商，而零售商则信任进口商，进口商再去信任瑞士那边负责装配机芯和表壳的工坊。整条价值链上，没有任何属于产品制造商或装配商的独立品牌，零售商直接垄断了终端品牌形象。 Wilsdorf & Davis 在当时的生态位正是处在进口商这一环。不过，汉斯并不满足于仅仅搬运整表。通过在瑞士积累的丰富人脉，他深知谁能造出最好的机芯、谁能打磨出最顶级的表壳。于是他利用这个信息差，在英国本地雇佣钟表匠人，将从瑞士精选进口的机芯与优质表壳组装成完整的钟表，再分销给零售商贴牌销售。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 20世纪初钟表供应链结构 accDescr: 展示了从瑞士机芯制造到英国最终消费者的传统贴牌流转路径 subgraph 瑞士制造端 A["专业机芯厂<br/>(如 Aegler)"] --> C["装配工坊 / 贸易商<br/>(Cuno Korten 等)"] B["专业表壳厂"] --> C end subgraph 进口与分销端 C --> D["进口商<br/>(Wilsdorf & Davis)"] D --> E["零售商 / 珠宝商<br/>(表盘印其品牌)"] end E --> F["终端消费者<br/>(对实际制造者一无所知)"] ``` - **机芯（Movement）的行业定义**：指驱动指针转动、维持钟表走时的核心内部机械结构，不包括表盘、指针、表壳和表镜。 - **机芯的核心地位**：在钟表行业，机芯的制造难度极高，类似于半导体领域的台积电（TSMC）。表壳和表盘决定外观审美，但机芯才真正决定性能与走时精度。官方天文台认证（Chronometer certification）评测的也是机芯本身，而非组装后的成表。 --- ### [25:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=1523s) 比恩的天才工匠与长达99年的君子之约 为了寻找最顶级的机芯，汉斯找到了日后劳力士传奇的另一半奠基人——让·埃格勒（Jean Aegler）。埃格勒的工坊位于瑞士北部山区的比恩（Bienne/Biel），而非传统的钟表重镇日内瓦（日内瓦位于瑞士西南端，紧邻法国）。埃格勒堪称制表界几十年难得一遇的天才工匠，他最令人惊叹的绝活，是在保持顶级精准度与卓越品质的前提下，将机械机芯微型化。在那个小型机芯几乎还没有成熟商业市场的年代，埃格勒出于对极致工艺的执着与挑战自我的热情，一头扎进了超微型机芯的研发中。 汉斯在库诺·科滕工作期间就敏锐地相中了这颗“山中璞玉”。他意识到，埃格勒制造的小型高精度机芯将是自己未来脱颖而出的差异化法宝。1905年 Wilsdorf & Davis 创立之初，汉斯便向埃格勒发出了第一笔订单。这一商业联盟极其独特且稳固——双方甚至没有签署复杂的长篇法律合同，仅凭彼此信任的“口头君子协议”（handshake deal），这一合作就整整延续了99年，直到2004年劳力士才正式将埃格勒公司全资收购。 然而，表盘由零售商独占贴牌的行规让汉斯如鲠在喉。他坚信这是自己的产品，不能彻底隐姓埋名。在表盘无法署名的情况下，汉斯与埃格勒达成折中妥协：在机芯内部雕刻上缩写“W&D”，并在定制表壳的内盖上也打上“W&D”印记。虽然普通消费者看表盘依然浑然不觉，但汉斯的自主品牌意识已经开始悄悄萌芽。 - **地理坐标差异**：比恩（Bienne）地处瑞士西北部汝拉山脉边缘，是技术精湛的机芯研发制造枢纽；日内瓦则是管理、装配与奢华艺术的代表。 - **跨越近一个世纪的合作**：从1905年下单到2004年全面收购，埃格勒家族工坊默默作为劳力士的机芯心脏运转了近百年。 - **早期暗记**：1905年及随后数年生产的腕表，仅在机芯与后盖内部留有“W&D”隐秘印记。 --- ### [28:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=1712s) 旅行便携表与布尔战争带来的灵感破局 在公司创办初期，怀表依然是整个社会无可争议的绝对主流，腕表的构想甚至还没有在汉斯的脑海中完全成型。汉斯深刻总结了之前英国雇主“样样通、样样松”导致破产的教训，立志通过专业化和差异化在红海中突围。他在自传中写道：“我负责掌管公司的财务与经营。从一开始，我们的成功就源于一个基本原则：只经营专业的钟表产品，尤其是开拓全新产品线。我们选择的第一项特色产品是旅行表（又称折叠皮套便携表），装在品质最精良的皮套中。我立刻向市场大量投放该系列，样式和设计涵盖了所有可能的品类。” 然而，真正彻底改写钟表历史的契机出现在不久之后。汉斯在阅读关于南非第二次布尔战争（Second Boer War）的战史报告时，注意到一个非同寻常的现象：参战的士兵和军官们竟然将钟表戴在手腕上。当时虽然早有极其小众的佩戴式腕表，但普遍被视作女性的脆弱配饰，严肃的男士对此不屑一顾。 南非炎热酷烈的高温气候让战士们无法穿着厚重的外衣和西装马甲，自然也就没有了放置传统怀表的口袋。更关键的是，在瞬息万变、枪林弹雨的生死战场上，作战人员必须协同部队推进、精确同步开火时间，双手还要紧握武器。没有任何人能在冲锋陷阵时停下脚步、放下步枪，去马甲口袋里掏出怀表掀开盖子看时间。这一极端战场环境彻底颠覆了钟表的价值评判维度——在生死关头，便捷易读的实用性压倒了一切，腕表的潜力在汉斯眼前轰然炸开。 - **早期主打产品**：折叠皮套旅行表（Portfolio / Traveling Watch），依靠微型机芯与精致皮具相结合打破市场同质化。 - **战术需求催生变革**：第二次布尔战争（1899–1902年）中士兵需要实时协同射击与行军步伐，双手受制于武器，使佩戴于手腕的时计成为生死攸关的战术工具。 - **气候与着装维度的催化**：热带作战环境下士兵脱去马甲外套，客观上剥夺了怀表的承载空间，直接加速了钟表从“口袋”向“手腕”的物理转移。 ### [031:52] 过于超前的豪赌：南非布尔战争后的虚假黎明 漫步在伦敦街头的汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）仿佛被一道闪电击中，脑海中浮现出一个至关重要的顿悟：腕表绝不仅仅是战场上士兵的应急工具，全世界数以百万计的普通人都能从手腕上直接抬手看时间中获益，而不必每次都费劲地从马甲口袋里掏出怀表。在坚信这一愿景的狂热驱动下，汉斯立即向瑞士比尔（Bienne）的机芯制造商赫尔曼·埃格勒（Hermann Aegler）下了他们公司有史以来最大的一笔订单——总金额高达数十万瑞士法郎，订购了大批此类微型机芯。 然而，这桩商业神话中充满了讽刺意味：汉斯当下的判断其实过于超前了。布尔战争的结束并没有像他想象的那样成为引爆腕表潮流的临门一脚。士兵们从非洲战场归来后，英国社会依然将手腕上佩戴的小表视作女性专用的“腕带表”（wristlets），大男子气概的文化偏见根深蒂固，整个市场根本没有足够的惯性来推动腕表走向普及。好在威尔斯多夫与戴维斯公司（Wilsdorf & Davis）当时规模尚小，并不需要庞大的大众市场就能维持运转。 真正的爆发还要再等上整整十年。在此期间，威尔斯多夫与戴维斯公司依靠大英帝国偏远殖民地播下的微弱火种得以维生：在澳大利亚、南非以及广袤的印度，气候炎热潮湿，男士们平时根本不穿夹克或厚重的马甲，因而成了最早一批愿意在手腕上佩戴严肃精密计时器的人群。但对汉斯而言，这不仅是糊口的生意，他成了一个无可救药的“狂热信徒”（zealot），坚信腕表终将席卷本土乃至全球，颠覆人们千百年来的看表习惯。 ### [033:42] 灵感源自柯达：双层马车上的“精灵低语” 既然手握极具颠覆性的产品，且身为开拓整个品类的先驱，汉斯敏锐地意识到他们必须为一个尚未被命名的行业创造一个响亮的名字。人们进店时需要一个明确的词汇来指名购买他们的手表。汉斯的品牌灵感直接来源于当时的柯达（Kodak）相机。柯达是由乔治·伊士曼（George Eastman）创立的伊士曼公司所推出的产品，它开创了商业史上“无意义人造词”（invented product brand name）作为产品品牌的先河。伊士曼当年和母亲用一套字母拼图反复推敲，确立了优秀品牌名的三大铁律：发音短小有力、在任何语言中都不拗口且发音一致、不与任何既有名词产生混淆或联想。 汉斯完全照搬了这套逻辑，决心为他的腕表打造属于钟表界的“柯达”。他后来在自述中回忆道，自己把字母表里的字母进行了成百上千种排列组合，拟定了上百个候选名字，但没有一个能击中灵魂。直到某天清晨，他坐在伦敦齐普赛街（Cheapside）一辆马拉双层巴士的上层甲板上吹风时，冥冥之中仿佛有一个善良的精灵在他耳边轻轻低语了一句： > "Rolex" 这个充满神话色彩的创业命名故事不仅极其迷人，更暗含精妙的心理暗示： - **发音联想**：念出“Rolex”时，嘴型和音节非常自然地让人联想到用手指转动表冠（roll the crown）上弦的动作。 - **机械质感**：结尾短促有力的硬音“x”，在潜意识中宛如机械钟表内部擒纵机构精准咬合的“滴答”（tick-tick）声。 - **国际通用**：仅有五个字母，对称短小，在任何主流语言中都毫无歧义。 1908年，威尔斯多夫与戴维斯公司正式在瑞士提交并注册了“Rolex”商标，几年后又在伦敦完成注册。此时它还不是公司名称，而是以外挂品牌的方式运作——“Rolex by Wilsdorf & Davis”。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士品牌诞生与定位流程 accDescr: 展示从柯达命名哲学启发，到汉斯乘车顿悟Rolex，再到确立品牌特质的演进过程 subgraph Inspiration["灵感来源与命名哲学"] A["乔治·伊士曼的柯达 Kodak 哲学<br>（短小、跨语言通用、人造词无歧义）"] B["汉斯尝试数百种字母组合筛选失败"] A --> B end subgraph Epiphany["双层巴士上的顿悟"] C["1908年伦敦 Cheapside 马拉双层巴士<br>‘精灵耳语’：Rolex"] B --> C end subgraph BrandEssence["品牌特质与注册"] D["音韵暗示：转动表冠 (Roll) 与滴答声 (X)"] E["1908年瑞士注册 / 英国注册<br>Rolex by Wilsdorf & Davis"] C --> D C --> E end ``` ### [036:46] 复制成功秘诀：从比尔到英国基尤皇家天文台的精密认证 确立了颠覆性的品类和极富吸引力的品牌名后，汉斯面临的最大阻碍是：大众普遍认为微型腕表在机械物理上不可能达到怀表的精准度，缺乏信任。汉斯决定再次拿出他早年兜售怀表时的“杀手锏”——通过无可辩驳的第三方权威机构认证来为产品背书。 在埃格勒卓越工艺的支撑下，汉斯于1910年将一枚腕表机芯送往瑞士比尔的钟表学校进行测试，一举斩获了全世界第一张颁发给腕表的天文台精密计时评级证书（chronometer rating）。这一认证在业内引发轰动，因为此前从未有人相信脆弱小巧的腕表机芯能保持如此苛刻的走时精度。 然而汉斯的野心远不止于瑞士钟表学校，一所行业学校的声望无法与顶尖的国家级天文台相提并论。他将目光瞄准了当时世界霸主大英帝国的核心科研机构——英国皇家天文台。自1910年起，汉斯不断督促埃格勒继续改良机芯公差与抗震性能，并明确发问：能否制造出一枚能够达到天文台认证标准（Observatory timekeeping certificate）的顶级腕表机芯？埃格勒埋头研发攻关了整整两年。 终于在1914年初夏，汉斯带着埃格勒精心打磨的微型机芯，亲自送往英国基尤皇家天文台（Kew Royal Observatory）进行极限测试。这绝非普通检验： - **英国皇家海军最高标准**：基尤天文台不仅因天文科研名满天下，更直接负责为掌控全球大洋的英国皇家海军测试航海精密计时器（Marine chronometer），关系着远洋舰队的导航与帝国安危。 - **45天魔鬼测试**：机芯必须在多种极端温差、多方位垂直与水平翻转状态下连续运转45天，考核极其残酷。 - **顶尖权威联手**：基尤天文台与确立格林尼治标准时间（GMT）的格林尼治皇家天文台同属一套严苛的英国天文测量体系，代表着当时全球时间计量的最高神殿。 1914年7月15日，测试结果揭晓：这枚腕表机芯顺利通过所有测试，荣获基尤天文台有史以来向腕表颁发的第一张“A级”（Class A）精密证书（Kew A Certification）。这不仅彻底击碎了“腕表走时不准”的社会偏见，更为劳力士奠定了近乎不可撼动的专业声誉。 ### [039:41] 命运的严酷熔炉：一战爆发与“劳力士制表公司”的诞生 本该是享誉世界的胜利时刻，却戏剧性地撞上了人类历史的巨变。基尤天文台颁发证书仅仅三周前，奥匈帝国皇储弗朗茨·斐迪南大公在萨拉热窝遇刺身亡，欧洲错综复杂的军事盟约网络瞬间被引爆，第一次世界大战全面爆发。在战火吞噬一切的当下，表面上看似乎没有人再关心一块手表拿到了什么证书；但极其讽刺的是，腕表即将迎来它历史上最血腥也最庞大的需求风口。 一战对劳力士而言是一场彻头彻尾的“炼狱考验”（Crucible moment）： - **业务上的爆发顺风**：现代堑壕战需要炮兵、步兵与后方指挥部进行精确到秒的协同推进（如徐进弹幕射击），在泥泞与枪林弹雨中从口袋里掏怀表无异于自杀。战争迫使军官与士兵们在手腕上佩戴可靠的计时工具，全世界对精密腕表的需求在一夜之间井喷。 - **政治与身份上的灭顶之灾**：作为公司的掌舵人，汉斯·威尔斯多夫出生于德国巴伐利亚。随着战事胶着，英国国内的反德情绪（anti-German sentiment）陷入了空前狂热与歇斯底里的境地。甚至连英国人养的德国牧羊犬都因为名字里带“German”而被强行改名为“阿尔萨斯犬”（Alsatians）。 更有讽刺意味的是英国王室本身的遭遇：维多利亚女王的丈夫阿尔伯特亲王是德国萨克森-科堡-哥达公国的王子，王室血统深植于德国。面对排德狂潮，英国王室不得不紧急与德国传统割席，将王室姓氏从“萨克森-科堡-哥达”（Saxe-Coburg-Gotha）正式更名为极具英国本土色彩的“温莎”（Windsor）。 连国王都在忙着“品牌重塑”（Rebranding），威尔斯多夫与戴维斯公司显然不可能在1914年的伦敦街头继续顶着一个德国味十足的姓氏“Wilsdorf”去开拓市场。尽管汉斯早就加入了英国国籍，毕生从未将自己视为德国人，但在战争的残酷现实面前，公司的名字必须彻底割裂旧有印记。 1915年，汉斯与合伙人果断决定：废除“Wilsdorf & Davis”的企业名称，全面启用他们早在几年前注册的中立商标——劳力士手表有限公司（The Rolex Watch Company Limited）由此正式诞生。一家原本属于伦敦的年轻表行，即将在这个剧荡的时代，跨出走向瑞士钟表圣殿的关键一步。 ### [42:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=2577s) 赞助商插播：J.P. Morgan Payments 庞大的合作伙伴生态 节目中插播了赞助商 J.P. Morgan Payments 的介绍。摩根大通在全公司范围内的科技投资高达 170 亿美元。在支付业务方面，这笔巨额投资不仅夯实并盘活了底层核心支付基础设施的稳定运作与商业变现，还推动了端到端支付体验以及前沿应用场景的拓展。基于这种深厚的技术底座，摩根大通将战略合作伙伴关系作为其创新哲学的核心，成为首家发布合作伙伴网络（Partner Network）的银行。该网络现已汇集数以百计的第三方集成，覆盖几乎所有行业和应用场景。 这一生态网络宛如一个 B2B 交易市场，无缝对接了客户与更广泛的支付科技生态，涵盖资金管理、ERP 系统、POS 硬件及支付网关等。商家在前端开展业务销售，后台的资金流转和安全合规全由系统无缝搞定。过去一年，摩根大通持续扩大合作版图，例如携手 Slope 将其 AI 智能核保与摩根大通的信贷额度结合，为中小企业客户提供短期贷款与延期账期，使商家在即时回款保障流动性的同时，让客户享受灵活融资。此外，他们还引入了欧洲、中东及非洲（EMEA）、拉美和亚太地区的本土伙伴，如 EMEA 领先的本地支付基础设施提供商 Prosa，让客户仅需一次集成、签署一份合同，就能接入全球各地的本地支付方式。 ### [45:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=2704s) 战争税收与黄金禁令：劳力士被迫迁往瑞士 回溯劳力士的历史，节目抛出一个核心悬念：劳力士究竟是如何从英国起家，最终演变成为一家举世闻名的瑞士制表公司的？反德情绪固然是一个因素，但若仅有舆论压力，已入籍英国、娶了英国妻子、品牌也在稳步发展的汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）完全可能继续留在伦敦。真正将劳力士逼出英国的致命一击，是英国政府在第一次世界大战期间颁布的战时经济管制政策。 为了筹措战费，英国在战争初期对进口手表征收了高达 33% 的进口关税。这对进出口业务虽然是沉重打击，但商业上往往还能通过提价转嫁给终端消费者。然而到了 1916 年初，英国政府给出了致命一击——全面禁止金银等一切贵金属进口。威尔斯多夫的商业模式高度依赖从瑞士进口机芯与表壳零件，在英国本地组装后，再出口转销至大英帝国各个殖民地及全球市场。没有了金银材料，加之高昂的机芯进口税，在英国继续维持经营已难以为继。 贵金属对手表产业的利润具有举足轻重的影响。无论是当时还是现在，贵金属手表的利润率都远远高于普通钢表；一块原本售价 10,000 美元的钢表，换上黄金或铂金表壳后售价可以直接飙升到 30,000 美元乃至更贵，成本与售价之间的惊人溢价就如同“苹果卖内存”一样夸张。有趣的是，在 2020 到 2022 年的手表炒作热潮中，买家往往需要排长队抢购精钢款，而定价 3 万、5 万甚至 10 万美元的贵金属款反而因为绝对总价过高、需求相对平缓而更容易现货买到。 面对进口禁令的绝境，劳力士于 1916 年首先将手表的组装业务迁往瑞士比恩（Bienne）的山麓，紧邻艾格勒（Aegler）的工坊，就近将制造好的机芯直接装入表壳并销往全球，绕开英国中转。一战结束后的 1919 年，汉斯·威尔斯多夫正式将自己和公司总部迁至日内瓦（Geneva）。直到今天，劳力士依然保持着这种分工格局：设计、销售、市场以及腕表的最终组装均在日内瓦完成，而核心机芯的生产制造则始终留在山区的比恩。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士迁往瑞士的双城格局演变 accDescr: 展示劳力士从英国伦敦因战时政策迁移至瑞士比恩与日内瓦的分工演变过程 subgraph UK["英国伦敦时期（1914-1916）"] A["战时政策打压<br/>33% 进口关税 + 1916年贵金属全面禁运"] end subgraph SwissMigration["迁往瑞士（1916-1919）"] B["1916年 组装业务迁至比恩（Bienne）<br/>紧邻 Aegler 制造机芯，免去英国中转"] C["1919年 汉斯迁居日内瓦并设立全球总部"] end subgraph ModernRolex["现代劳力士双城分工格局"] D["比恩（Bienne）<br/>精密机芯研发与生产"] E["日内瓦（Geneva）<br/>设计、市场营销、销售与最终组装"] end A --> B B --> C C --> D C --> E ``` ### [48:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=2900s) 为什么是日内瓦？瑞士钟表传奇的历史渊源 迁往瑞士不仅是躲避战火与关税的被动策略，更是威尔斯多夫深谋远虑的品牌升级。他深知要打造享誉全球的高级制表品牌，日内瓦的背书至关重要。表盘底部的“Swiss Made”或是百达翡丽表盘上的“Genève”，是无与伦比的品质与声望象征。为了剖析日内瓦与瑞士钟表业的根基，本集引入了主创挚友、At Present 创始人马克·布里奇（Marc Bridge）20 年前撰写的硕士论文《瑞士钟表工业的复兴》（The Renaissance of the Swiss Watch Industry），将历史指针大幅拨回到 16 世纪。 瑞士钟表业的崛起是宗教改革、严酷气候、生产体制以及地缘政治难民共同催化的历史结果： - **加尔文主义与禁奢令**：1500 年代，约翰·加尔文（John Calvin）在日内瓦领导宗教改革。加尔文教派崇尚极度清心寡欲与道德严谨，严禁佩戴奢华多余的金银饰品。当地技艺精湛的金匠和珠宝匠为了谋生，转而将手艺投入到手表制造中——因为手表具备实际计时功能，不属于浮夸的装饰物。“制度再严苛，人性对地位与审美的追求总能找到出路”，制表业因此成为宗教戒律下的合法避风港。 - **阿尔卑斯山区气候**：瑞士多山且冬季漫长寒冷，户外农作受限。制表业占地空间小、全流程可在室内作业，且产出极具高附加值，成为度过严冬、参与欧洲主流经济循环的完美产业形态。 - **分散外包体制（Établissage）**：在汝拉山脉（Jura Mountains）一带，当地逐渐形成了名为 *Établissage* 的特殊分工体系。数以百计只有 1 到 10 人的独立微型手工作坊，各自倾尽全力专精于单一微小零部件（如游丝、齿轮等）。高度分工与工匠代代相传的极致打磨，造就了无可比拟的生产效率与超群工艺，艾格勒工坊正是诞生于这一深厚土壤之中。 - **法国胡格诺教徒大迁徙**：16 世纪晚期，原本在制表业上势头强劲的法国因天主教势力掌权而掀起宗教迫害，大批拥有顶尖金工、珠宝和钟表制作技艺的胡格诺派（Huguenot）新教难民流亡逃至日内瓦，为瑞士带去了先进的技术火种与人才财富。 ### [53:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=3189s) 迁往日内瓦：瑞士传统与中立国战略 日内瓦之所以成为世界制表之都，源于宗教改革时期的深远历史。当时作为新教避难所的日内瓦汇聚了大量逃离迫害的法国胡格诺教徒（Huguenots），他们带来了精湛的手工与金属加工技艺；在加尔文主义（Calvinism）严厉禁止穿戴耀眼首饰的清规戒律下，金匠与珠宝匠人被迫转行投入既实用又隐蔽的时计制作中。数百年间，这种背景孕育出了瑞士独有的“分工组装系统”（établissage）——一种高度专业化、分散式的钟表生产网络。在大卫·罗森塔尔（David Rosenthal）看来，这恰恰是“法国美学底蕴与瑞士（乃至德意志式）精密工艺的绝妙融合”，而这正是瑞士本身的缩影。汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）敏锐地意识到，若要让劳力士（Rolex）走向世界，就必须深深扎根于日内瓦这片拥有百年声望的制表土壤。 与此同时，第一次世界大战的爆发给汉斯的商业布局带来了决定性冲击。战后，尽管英国依然是劳力士最大的单一市场，但全欧洲乃至全球的参战士兵都亲身体验到了腕表带来的巨大便利，一个空前庞大的世界级消费市场正在显现。汉斯此前刚亲历了英国政府为筹措战费而征收的巨额“麦肯纳关税”（McKenna duties），更体会到战争期间跨国贸易的全面阻断——如果劳力士当时在德国有市场，战火会立刻让生意归零。为了避免未来再次沦为大国战争与贸易保护主义的牺牲品，将公司搬迁至永久中立国瑞士成为唯一理性的战略选择，因为瑞士绝不会为了对外打仗而筑起高额关税壁垒。 ### [54:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=3291s) 与埃格勒（Aegler）的股权交错绑定 随着劳力士将总部迁至比尔（Bienne）与日内瓦两地，并完全依赖比尔的让·埃格勒工坊（Jean Aegler）供应机芯，两家公司的命运必须捆绑得更加紧密。1919年至1920年间，双方达成了一项里程碑式的股权交叉协议：老创始人让·埃格勒的儿子赫尔曼·埃格勒（Hermann Aegler）出资认购了劳力士约15%的股份并进入董事会，使劳力士早期的董事会形成了威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）、戴维斯（Alfred Davis）与埃格勒三足鼎立的格局。 少有人提及的是这笔交易的另一面：劳力士反向购买了埃格勒公司的股份。当时埃格勒机芯拥有两大核心买家：一个是劳力士，另一个是美国钟表品牌高汉（Gruen Watch Company）。当时劳力士尚未发力美国市场，而高汉同样入股了埃格勒。尽管通过股权交叉实现了利益绑定，但令人惊异的是，两家公司之间居然长期没有任何具有约束力的独家供货法律合同，全凭彼此之间无可替代的商业互信与共生利益维持协作。 - **董事会三角结构**：汉斯·威尔斯多夫、阿尔弗雷德·戴维斯、赫尔曼·埃格勒。 - **赫尔曼·埃格勒持股比例**：约15%的劳力士股份（具体收购价格已湮没在历史中）。 - **机芯双雄**：劳力士与美国高汉（Gruen）彼时为埃格勒最大的两家客户，双双持有埃格勒股权。 - **契约形态**：即使完成了交叉持股，双方日常的机芯供应仍未签署正式的独家承购协议。 ### [56:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=3373s) 腕表的“ChatGPT时刻”与残酷的早期缺陷 一战结束象征着腕表迎来了属于它的“ChatGPT时刻”。数以百万计的士兵在战壕中见证了腕间分秒必争的力量，退伍重返平民生活后，他们迫不及待地希望将这种现代工具带进日常生活。然而，此时的劳力士并没有因为手握天文台官方认证就自然而然地统治市场。彼时大众对于劳力士品牌几乎一无所知；欧洲市场上涌入了如欧米茄（Omega）等大量老牌钟表厂商，所有人都在疯狂涌入这片全新蓝海。 更致命的是，当时整个腕表品类就像“Google出现之前的早期搜索引擎”一样——市场需求极为旺盛，但产品体验其实非常糟糕。怀表平日安稳地放在马甲口袋中，而腕表则时刻暴露在外部环境中。机芯本身是由数百个微型零件精密咬合的脆弱系统，一旦缩微成腕表大小，任何细微的尘土、雨水或空气中的水汽侵入表壳，都会迅速黏结机油、锈蚀零件并导致停走故障。大卫坦言自己曾经很不理解现代腕表标榜“防水5000万米”的营销噱头，直到深入研究才恍然大悟：钟表界的“防水”（Waterproof）在本质上是“防一切外界侵蚀”（Element-proof）的代名词。能挡住水分子，就意味着能将灰尘与湿气完全拒之门外，从而极大减少机芯损耗与频繁送修的致命痛点。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 早期腕表环境挑战与密封演进 accDescr: 展示从怀表到早期腕表暴露于恶劣环境，再到密封技术演进的历程 subgraph Problem["佩戴场景巨变与机芯危机"] A["传统怀表：存放在口袋深处<br/>温和避光、灰尘水汽极少"] --> B["战后腕表：全天候暴露于手腕"] B --> C["外界致命侵蚀：<br/>灰尘、泥沙、汗水、湿气"] C --> D["微型机械机芯受阻卡死<br/>润滑油变质、零件锈蚀停摆"] end subgraph Solution["技术破局路径"] D --> E["初代解法：双层外壳（鲍姆加特纳 Hermetic）<br/>笨重如潜水头盔，每日需拆开上弦"] E --> F["终极解法：旋入式密封表冠与蚝式结构<br/>全面隔绝外界杂质，确立现代耐用腕表标准"] end ``` ### [59:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=3566s) 笨拙的“潜水头盔”：早期的密封表壳探索 定义一块顶级机械腕表（尤其是劳力士）存在三大支柱：第一是**极度精准**（获得官方天文台及 Kew "A" 认证）；第二是**严密耐用**（即日后的 Oyster 蚝式防水结构）；第三则是后来的自动上弦机构。面对一战后所有腕表“脆弱易坏”的普遍通病，瑞士高档制表业掀起了一场研发防水腕表的军备竞赛。 在1920年代初，为百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）等顶尖品牌提供表壳的瑞士知名表壳制造商弗朗索瓦·鲍姆加特纳（François Baumgartner）推出了一种名为“Hermetic”（密封/隐形表壳）的设计。这项设计的原理十分简单粗暴：将一整块表套进另一层带螺纹密封圈的外层表壳内，犹如给腕表戴上了一顶“潜水头盔”。虽然它确实起到了防水防尘的作用，劳力士当时也采购了这种表壳推出产品，但这种妥协方案存在巨大缺陷——它体积庞大、外观笨拙，而且腕表最容易进水的致命薄弱点是表冠（Crown），为了密封只能将表冠也锁在厚重外壳内；这导致佩戴者每天早上为了给手表上弦，都必须先用工具旋开外层表壳把里面的表身抠出来。这种糟糕的使用体验显然无法成为腕表的终极未来。 ### [01:01:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=3667s) 旋入式表冠专利与威尔斯多夫的“扎克伯格时刻” 转机出现在1925年10月。瑞士两位表壳发明家保罗·佩雷戈（Paul Perregaux）与乔治·佩雷（Georges Perret）向瑞士专利局递交了一项全新的发明专利：一种防潮防尘的旋入式表轴与按钮装置（moisture-proof winding stem and button）。在此之前，包括劳力士在内的几乎所有表厂都在尝试自研防水密封圈，劳力士内部就至少经历了三次彻底失败的尝试。 如同玛氏糖果创始人弗雷斯特·马斯（Forrest Mars）一样，汉斯·威尔斯多夫有着每日必读瑞士官方专利公报的传奇习惯。当他在公报上扫到这项旋入式表冠专利时，瞬间敏锐地意识到“就是它了！”他以闪电般的速度找到这两位发明家，买断了专利的所有权并将其确立为劳力士的独家专利。本·吉尔伯特（Ben Gilbert）与大卫·罗森塔尔在节目中感叹，威尔斯多夫就像“那个时代的马克·扎克伯格”： - 汉斯本人并不是制表师（劳力士直到2004年才彻底收购埃格勒工坊，将机芯制造完全自主化）； - 他不在乎这项发明是不是自己团队在实验室里想出来的，就如同扎克伯格收购 Instagram、像素级借鉴 Snapchat 的 Stories 一样； - 他的天才在于对时代方向极其敏锐的商业远见，能够从繁杂的信息中一眼挑出真正的技术突破，抢在所有同行前面以雷霆手段将其商业化与品牌化。 瑞士专利公报是公开发行的，任何竞争对手理论上都能看到这项专利，但唯有汉斯毫不犹豫地重金锁定垄断，最终化腐朽为神奇，为后来轰动世界的劳力士“蚝式”（Oyster）表壳奠定了最核心的基石。 ### [01:03:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=3805s) 蚝式表壳（Oyster）的专利与零件品牌化战略 对于钟表爱好者来说，这项颠覆性专利的核心在于旋入式表冠（Screw-down Crown），以及随之应用在所有蚝式腕表上的气密密封系统。之所以取名为“蚝式”（Oyster），正是因为牡蛎在闭合时能够完全密封，堪称最贴切的隐喻。整个防水结构基于螺纹系统运作：表壳后盖旋紧咬合在表壳中层，表冠同样以螺纹旋紧，形成完全隔绝水气和杂质的密封屏障。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Rolex Oyster Water-tight Architecture accDescr: Diagram illustrating the three-part hermetic threaded system of the Rolex Oyster case. subgraph OysterCase["蚝式表壳螺纹密封系统"] Crown["旋入式表冠 (Screw-down Crown)"] CaseBody["表壳中层 (Middle Case)"] CaseBack["旋入式底盖 (Screw-down Case Back)"] Crown -- "螺纹紧锁" --> CaseBody CaseBack -- "螺纹咬合" --> CaseBody end SealResult["气密、防水且防尘的完全密封结构"] OysterCase --> SealResult ``` 1926年7月，汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）与劳力士正式注册了“Oyster”（蚝式）这一产品名称。汉斯敏锐地意识到这是一个巨大的突破点，他决定倾尽全力推广，不仅要让全世界记住劳力士的名字，还要让大家知道劳力士是“蚝式”技术的唯一拥有者。单是在英国，他就准备每年砸下超过1万英镑的巨资专门投放蚝式腕表的广告。 汉斯深谙品牌构建之道。他不仅仅在营销“劳力士”这个品牌，而是在开创“零件与专有技术品牌化”的先河——宣称这是“唯一搭载蚝式技术的劳力士腕表”。这种策略与当今苹果公司将自研芯片命名为“A18 Bionic”如出一辙，其商业嗅觉领先了时代将近一个世纪。 --- ### [01:05:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=3910s) 梅赛德丝·吉莉丝与英吉利海峡的“正名之游” 汉斯手握划时代的创新产品和充足的营销预算，但他不想只在报纸版面上买下平平无奇的常规广告，他需要一场震撼全球的产品发布秀。1927年底，机会降临到了一位名叫梅赛德丝·吉莉丝（Mercedes Gleitze）的年轻英国女性身上。吉莉丝是伦敦的一名秘书兼双语速记员，其早年经历与曾在库诺（Cuno Korten）做外语专员的年轻汉斯惊人地相似。然而在业余时间，她有一项极其硬核的爱好：在冰冷刺骨且污染严重的泰晤士河里进行长距离耐力游泳，动辄连游10个小时。 1927年10月，吉莉丝决定向英吉利海峡发起挑战。在波涛汹涌、冰冷险恶的海水中，她成功横渡，成为历史上第一位横渡英吉利海峡的英国女性。然而仅仅几天后，另一名女性跳出来声称自己也完成了横渡，并且速度更快。后来虽然查明那场挑战是一场彻底的骗局，但被触怒的吉莉丝为了自证清白，决定发起一场公开接受媒体全程监督的“正名之游”（Vindication Swim）。 汉斯立刻意识到：这就是劳力士梦寐以求的舞台。他构思了一个精妙的营销奇招：赞助吉莉丝在这次正名之游中佩戴全新的劳力士蚝式腕表。尽管劳力士官方如今很少提及一段历史注脚——这只表当时并非戴在她的手腕上，而是挂在她脖颈间的细链条吊坠上。但正如播客主持人打趣所言，“永远不要让残酷的数据破坏一个精彩的故事”，无论戴在手腕还是挂在脖子上，这依然是一场绝妙的营销壮举。 更为戏剧性的是，由于海水异常冰冷刺骨、风浪极大，吉莉丝在游了10个多小时后遗憾退赛，未能完全游完全程。但从产品测试的角度来看，一块机械表在冰冷翻滚的海水中浸泡了整整10个小时依然分秒不差、滴水未进，这已经成为了无可辩驳的强力产品背书。 --- ### [01:08:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=4081s) 《每日邮报》头版头条与早期广告的青涩探索 正名之游次日，汉斯一举买下了全英国发行的全国性大报《每日邮报》（Daily Mail）的整个头版。在那个年代，报纸头版通常并非专属于采编新闻，直接包下头版刊登整版广告是相当普遍的操作。汉斯在头版向全英宣告：世界上第一款无需任何额外密封外壳、自身一体密封的防水腕表——劳力士蚝式腕表凯旋登场。 然而，如果以现代广告的标准审视这幅整版广告，会发现它的排版和文案风格非常耐人寻味。广告中最醒目的巨幅大字并不是“腕表在英吉利海峡横渡中生还”，而是居中的“ROLEX OYSTER”，随后是一句宣告：“劳力士首次推出制表业最伟大的胜利”。整版充斥着密密麻麻的文字排版： - 画面中央配有一张吉莉丝的肖像照片。 - 旁边写着“免费索取彩色介绍手册”，号召读者寄信获取更多信息。 - 版面上印有四副不同表盘设计的蚝式腕表手绘草图。 - 主文案标榜它是“征服自然元素的奇迹之表”（The Wonder watch that defies the elements）。 - 直到翻至整个版面最不起眼的角落、用几乎是全篇倒数第二小的字体，才写着一连串硬核指标：“防潮、防水、耐热、防震、抗冻、防尘”（moisture proof, waterproof, heat proof, vibration proof, coldproof, dust proof）。 这种将“横渡海峡并幸存”的核心亮点深埋在文字堆里的做法，在当今被短视频洗礼的信息时代几乎不可思议。造成这种现象的原因，一方面在于当时大众的阅读习惯更偏爱长文，另一方面则源于汉斯惊人的控制欲：直至去世前，他几乎一手包揽了劳力士所有广告的创意与撰写。直到20世纪60年代，在公司内部的推动下引入了传奇广告巨头智威汤逊（J. Walter Thompson），劳力士的广告风格才真正步入成熟与现代化的巅峰。 --- ### [01:11:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=4268s) 劳力士独特的女性基因与“代言人”的诞生 吉莉丝的亮相不仅是劳力士发展史上的分水岭，也揭示了劳力士品牌DNA中鲜为人知的一面： - **女性市场的核心地位**：尽管腕表在一战期间逐渐被男性军人接受，但直到二战前，劳力士本质上仍是一家极度倚重女性市场的品牌。在当年的产品目录中，女表款式的数量是男表款式的整整两倍（如著名的劳力士Prince系列）。汉斯的愿景是让所有人都能戴上腕表，但当时实际支撑生意的正是广大女性客户。 - **均衡的用户结构**：在如今的钟表发烧友圈子、Reddit论坛或高端腕表媒体Hodinkee上，钟表文化呈现出浓厚的男性主导色彩（类似于保时捷911的狂热受众）。但数据显示，劳力士即便在今天，男女消费者的比例依然保持在大约50/50的完美均衡。除卡地亚（Cartier）之外，极少有其他顶级钟表巨头能做到这一点，绝大多数高奢机械表品牌几乎完全是男性主导的世界。 吉莉丝由此成为了劳力士历史上首位“代言人”。有趣的是，劳力士官方极其抗拒使用“品牌大使”（Brand Ambassador）这一泛滥的词汇，在劳力士的官方用语体系中，这些在各领域缔造传奇的先锋人物被特称为“劳力士代言人”（Rolex Testimonee），旨在强调他们以真实非凡的经历，为腕表的卓越品质做出最真实的见证。 ### [01:13:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=4435s) 终身代言与蚝式表壳隐藏的阿喀琉斯之踵 在劳力士的品牌叙事中，代言人策略从来不是现代意义上那种签下五年香水代言的网红营销，而是一种极其长期的绑定——代言人成为品牌基因不可分割的一部分，甚至相伴终身。罗杰·费德勒（Roger Federer）就是这种理念在当代最纯粹的化身。然而，把目光拉回到当年的腕表产品本身，名声大噪的蚝式（Oyster）表壳虽然取得了巨大突破，却暗藏着一个致命缺陷。正如本（Ben）此前指出的，蚝式表壳之所以不需要像潜水钟那样把整块表笨重地罩起来，其核心关键在于那颗如同广口瓶盖一样能够旋紧的表冠（Crown）。 但这也意味着，每一次需要给手表手动上链时，佩戴者都必须旋开表冠、拔出表冠、完成上链，在手表完全暴露在空气与湿气中之后，再将其重新旋紧。了解人性的人都清楚，世界上至少有一半的人根本不会在每次上链后严谨、细致地把表冠彻底旋回去。一旦表冠没拧紧，蚝式表壳的密封防护便荡然无存。要想让腕表迎来真正的“iPhone时刻”，成为划时代的破局产品，就必须集齐三大支柱，而第三大支柱正是“Perpetual”（恒动/自动上链）。 - **三大支柱的终极闭环**：防水防尘的蚝式表壳、精准度，以及不需要手动旋开表冠的自动上链机制。 - **自动上链的深层价值**：表面上看，手动上链并不算费事，几个世纪以来人们使用怀表都是如此；但对劳力士而言，自动上链的真正革命性在于它完美保护了防水表冠的密封性，从根本上消除了人为疏忽的风险。 --- ### [01:15:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=4555s) 赞助商插播：Fundrise 的风险投资民主化破局 在深入探讨恒动机芯的精妙机械构造之前，节目穿插介绍了老朋友 Fundrise。首席执行官本·米勒（Ben Miller）及其团队长期以来都是节目听众。自双方三年前首次合作以来，Fundrise 自身经历了翻天覆地的转变：2022年，他们正是通过 Acquired 宣布从全美最大的散户房地产投资平台跨界进军风险投资领域。 起初，让普通大众参与风险投资的想法被很多人视为异想天开，但如今 Fundrise 已经用战绩证明了自己的实力，成功跻身 Databricks、Anthropic、Canva、Anduril、Ramp、Vanta 以及刚刚在12月成功挂牌上市的 ServiceTitan 等顶尖科技公司的股东名册。在成长型企业倾向于推迟上市、长期保持私有化的时代背景下，Fundrise 打破了过去只有顶级 VC 和 LP 才能享有的大量一级市场红利，让数以万计的普通投资者也能在企业敲钟上市时共享财富增长的盛宴。 --- ### [01:17:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=4672s) 机械腕表的魔法：无需电池与电路的微型炼金术 回到劳力士的产品逻辑，一旦手表具备了自动上链机制，蚝式表壳的密封特性便能真正对所有人奏效：佩戴者不再需要拧开表冠，不必更换电池，也不用像佩戴现代 Apple Watch 那样天天充电，只需戴在手腕上正常走动，腕表就能始终保持精准走时并持续防水，达到了乔布斯式的“戴上即忘”完美体验。为了理解劳力士这一设计的革命性，必须先从宏观层面拆解机械表运作的“炼金术”。 要制造一个机械计时装置，核心只需要两大模块：第一，储存能量的方式；第二，以极其精准且可预测的固定时间间隔释放这股能量的方式。在没有电池和微电子芯片的物理世界里，实现这一过程完全依赖精密机械。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 机械腕表基础动力与调速传动链 accDescr: 展示主发条储能通过擒纵轮与擒纵叉受摆轮系统控制逐步释放的机械流程 subgraph 储能模块["储能模块"] A["发条盒与主发条<br/>(Mainspring & Barrel)"] end subgraph 控能模块["擒纵调速系统 (Escapement)"] B["擒纵轮<br/>(Escape Wheel)"] C["擒纵叉<br/>(Pallet Fork)"] D["摆轮与游丝系统<br/>(Balance Wheel & Hairspring)"] end subgraph 走时显示["走时轮系"] E["齿轮系传动<br/>(Gear Train)"] F["指针与复杂功能<br/>(时/分/秒/日历等)"] end A -->|"释放势能"| B B <-->|"步进锁止"| C C <-->|"往复驱动/调速"| D B -->|"逐格驱动"| E E --> F ``` - **储能装置：主发条（Mainspring）与发条盒（Barrel）**：主发条本质上是一根一英尺左右长的极薄金属条，被紧紧卷绕后塞入一个类似微缩电影胶卷盒的发条盒中。这实际上就是一个“机械蓄电池”。现代机械表的能效极其惊人，仅凭紧绷发条中储存的物理势能，就足以支撑腕表持续走动长达三天左右。 - **失控风险**：如果直接释放主发条，发条盒瞬间飞速打转，所有齿轮狂转泄力，手表内部会瞬间报废，因此必须引入严格的控能刹车装置。 --- ### [01:20:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=4841s) 擒纵系统与摆轮游丝：用机械齿轮编码逻辑 为了让发条中的能量以固定微小的节奏缓慢释放，钟表匠发明了“擒纵机构”（Escapement），这也是手表发出“滴答”声的源头。擒纵系统主要包含两个核心构件：擒纵叉（Pallet Fork）与摆轮组（Balance）。 擒纵叉形状就像一个带有两枚擒纵瓦（双齿）的小“T”形杠杆，它如同老式落地大钟的摆锤一样不停地左右摆动。每当它摆动一下，就允许擒纵轮（Escape Wheel）向前推进一个格（一个“滴”或一个“答”），进而带动后端复杂的齿轮系（Gear Train）向前跨出一步。随后，齿轮系带动时针、分针、秒针，甚至驱动包括日历、星期、月相在内的各种复杂功能（Complications）。这种纯机械构件所体现的精巧令人惊叹：钟表匠在完全没有现代计算机代码和“if-else”逻辑判断的情况下，纯靠一组组尺寸精密配合的齿轮啮合，在物理空间中直接把复杂的日历进位逻辑“编码”了出来。 而驱动擒纵叉精准维持“滴答”节拍的心脏，正是机械表中最核心的灵魂部件——摆轮系统（Balance）。摆轮系统同样由两部分同轴嵌套组成：外圈是类似微缩自行车轮或呼啦圈一样的摆轮（Balance Wheel），内部轴心上则紧扣着一根细如毛发、盘绕成螺旋状的精密游丝（Hairspring）。这个精巧的机械震荡器不断往复扭动，为主发条的能量宣泄设立了恒定统一的时间尺度。 ### [01:23:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=5018s) 游丝与摆轮：机械表机芯的心脏与宇宙物理法则 在深入机械表的内部运作时，会发现一件极具美感且反直觉的设计：手表内部的大多数零件都组装得极其紧凑精密，唯独摆轮（balance）与游丝（hairspring）几乎处于“悬浮”状态，以极低的摩擦力自由摆动。发条盒释放能量促使游丝朝一个方向高速旋开，但正如任何弹簧被拉伸时都会受制于机械阻力一样，当储存的能量被回弹阻力抵消后，它便停滞并迅速向相反方向回旋。这种来回往复的振动驱动擒纵叉（pallet fork）左右来回拨动，一格一格地释放微小的能量，带动整个齿轮系匀速推进。这正如喜欢保时捷 911 等精密机械的爱好者所沉迷的极致之美，犹如机械迷的“猫薄荷”（catnip）。 这种振荡发生得极其迅速，绝非肉眼可见的缓慢过程。取决于具体机芯的设计，摆轮游丝每秒要摆动 3 到 6 次（甚至更多）；当你把机械表贴近耳朵时听到的“滴答滴答”声，正是这一连串机械动作的律动。最令人惊叹之处在于，时间的测量完全依托于自然界的物理法则——金属材料的弹性模量、抗拉强度、惯性以及储存的势能。现代的精密工艺已将这一科学推向极致，获得天文台认证的腕表每日误差能够控制在惊人的 2 秒之内。后来劳力士更研发出著名的专利蓝铌游丝（Parachrom hairspring），在抗磁与抗温差变形方面达到了全新高度。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 机械表动力传输与擒纵调速机制 accDescr: 展示从发条盒动力释放到摆轮游丝调速，再到驱动指针的完整机械表能量路径。 subgraph Power["动力来源"] A["发条盒 (Mainspring)"] end subgraph Escapement["擒纵调速机构"] B["擒纵叉 (Pallet Fork)"] C["摆轮与游丝 (Balance & Hairspring)"] end subgraph Display["走时与功能"] D["齿轮系 (Gear Train)"] E["指针与日历等复杂功能"] end A --> B B <-->|"极低摩擦高频振荡 (3-6次/秒)"| C B --> D D --> E ``` ### [01:26:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=5187s) 红宝石轴承、机芯耐用性与自动上链的技术挑战 一块机械表内部通常包含 200 多个零件，为了抵御零件每秒数次高速往复拍打所产生的磨损与摩擦，制表师引入了红宝石（rubies）与蓝宝石轴承（jewels）。将天然或人工合成宝石打磨成极小的人造轴承孔，不仅利用了矿物极高的硬度避免磨损，还能将摩擦力降到最低。正是得益于这种工业级的精密耐用性，劳力士腕表通常十年才需要保养一次。播客主播甚至提到，自己手腕上佩戴的劳力士迪通拿（Daytona）至少已有 15 年以上未曾保养过，依然走时分毫不差。 然而，发条盒、擒纵机构与摆轮游丝这套精密的机械艺术已传承了近 500 年，几乎所有数字科技以及大部分现代模拟技术都是在此之后才诞生的。在这样一套已经传承数百年、各部件公差被压榨到极致的复杂系统里，增加“自动上链”（Self-Winding）机制绝非敲几行软件代码那么简单。发条盒内紧密盘绕着能储备数天动力的高强度发条，手动拔出表冠拧动上链时都能感受到巨大的阻力。若要仅依靠手腕的微小动作产生足够的机械杠杆效应，去将原本就处于高张力状态的发条进一步拧紧，在工程设计上是一项极其艰巨的挑战。 - **精密珠宝轴承**：手表机芯中的红宝石与蓝宝石充当转轴轴承，凭借极高硬度降低摩擦并防止磨损。 - **超长维护周期**：劳力士腕表通常只需每十年保养一次，部分腕表即使超过 15 年未做维护仍能精准运行。 - **历史底蕴**：发条与擒纵调速机构的核心原理拥有近 500 年的历史，是人类精密机械工艺的巅峰代表之一。 ### [01:28:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=5315s) 约翰·哈伍德的“撞锤式”自动上链专利与致命缺陷 20 世纪 20 年代末，英国钟表发明家约翰·哈伍德（John Harwood）发明了一种自动上链系统。具有讽刺意味的是，哈伍德最初的目的并非单纯为了省去上链麻烦，而是为了像劳力士一样打造防水防尘手表。他敏锐地意识到上链表冠是腕表防护上最脆弱的死穴，于是构想通过彻底取消表冠来封死进水进尘的通道。相传哈伍德是在公园看到儿童玩跷跷板时灵光一现，发明了所谓的“撞锤系统”（Hammer system）——利用手腕摆动使机芯内的摆锤来回摆荡并撞击两端的限位弹簧，从而驱动机构上链。 哈伍德为这项技术申请了专利，并成立了一家专门运作 IP 授权的公司，将专利授权给其他制表商使用。然而，这套系统在市场上反响平平，其最大的硬伤恰恰在于他彻底取消了表冠和手动上链功能。一旦手表长时间不戴停走、发条动力完全耗尽，佩戴者无法通过拧表冠补链，只能戴着它晃荡好几天才能勉强重新积蓄动能并调整时间。尽管存在如此巨大的产品缺陷，哈伍德在英国获得的专利范围却异常宽泛，几乎涵盖了“所有腕表自动上链技术”，令包括汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）在内的同行在英国市场上动弹不得。 ### [01:31:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=5464s) 经济大萧条与劳力士“恒动”360度单向转子的诞生 劳力士创始人汉斯·威尔斯多夫深知，蚝式表壳（Oyster）必须搭配一套成熟的自动上链系统，才能彻底释放手表的商业潜力并让腕表走向大众市场。但他既看不上哈伍德那种劣质且有缺陷的实现方案，又无法绕开英国严苛的专利限制。转机在 1929 年降临：随着华尔街股市崩盘及随后席卷全球的经济大萧条，哈伍德的公司资金链断裂破产，宽泛的专利封锁随之瓦解，劳力士通往自动上链技术的大门终于敞开。 在 1929 年前后，劳力士并非如今的顶级超奢品牌；当时的报刊记录显示，买一块劳力士低至 25 美元（约合今天的 450 美元），最高配置约 1,000 美元（约合今天的 18,000 美元）。虽然是一笔不菲的开支，但绝不是只有顶级富豪才买得起的奢侈品。汉斯的宏愿在于将优质实用的腕表推广到全世界每个人的手腕上。 到了 20 世纪 30 年代初，经过数年潜心研发，劳力士成功破解了技术瓶颈，推出了著名的专利“恒动转子”（Perpetual Rotor）自动上链系统，并在此后彻底奠定了全行业的自动上链标准： - **360 度自由旋转**：与哈伍德受到两端限位阻挡、来回撞击的“撞锤式”设计不同，劳力士的恒动摆陀位于机芯背部，能够在任意方向上作 360 度无障碍自由旋转，高效捕捉佩戴者手腕活动产生的动能。 - **无噪音静音运行**：哈伍德的撞锤在上链时摆荡撞击两端，会发出“咔嗒咔嗒”（clack clack）的烦人机械撞击声；而劳力士将“静音自动上链系统”（Silent self-winding system）作为其核心卖点，提供了顺滑无声且永动不息的佩戴体验。 ### [01:33:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=5639s) 恒动自动陀与蚝式恒动：劳力士的三大技术支柱确立 劳力士的自动上链技术称得上是一项天才般的设计。它的运作机制十分巧妙：想象一个围绕中心点旋转的圆盘，切去其中一半，形成一个半圆形的配重摆陀（rotor）。在一个近乎无摩擦的系统中，只要佩戴者的手腕晃动，或者手表发生任何倾斜，重力就会将摆陀较重的一侧拉向下方的低处。人在一整天的日常活动中，不知不觉就会让这个“恒动自动陀”（Perpetual rotor）不断旋转，进而为发条盒（mainspring）源源不断地上链。这是一项极具革命性的工程奇迹，叠加在机械腕表此前众多精密的工程成就之上。 然而，在机芯背面额外增加这一层结构，也带来了一个物理现实：手表的底盖不得不微微凸起。正是因为这个特点，这批最早推向市场的早期蚝式恒动（Oyster Perpetual）腕表，被今天的腕表收藏家们亲切地冠以“泡泡背”（Bubble Back）的绰号。值得一提的是，这项设计是劳力士真正意义上的完全自主研发。此前的蚝式表壳是专利授权引入，走时精度的核心来自埃格勒（Aegler）的技术积累，而恒动自动陀则是劳力士内部研发团队首次为世界钟表行业贡献的全新原创性突破。 随着这一发明的就位，劳力士——乃至高品质机械腕表行业——的三大核心技术支柱正式齐聚： 1. **天文台级精准度（Precision）**：由各大天文台认证的高精度走时标准； 2. **环境防护性（Waterproofness）**：由蚝式（Oyster）密闭表壳带来的卓越防水防尘性能； 3. **全自动上链（Self-winding）**：由恒动（Perpetual）自动陀实现的手腕动能储蓄。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士腕表三大核心技术支柱架构 accDescr: 展示精准度、蚝式密闭外壳与恒动自动摆陀如何共同融合成经典的蚝式恒动天文台表。 subgraph CorePillars["劳力士三大核心支柱"] A["天文台级精准度<br>(Chronometer)"] B["蚝式防水表壳<br>(Oyster)"] C["恒动自动上链<br>(Perpetual)"] end CorePillars --> D["蚝式恒动天文台表<br>(Oyster Perpetual Chronometer)"] D --> E["标志性收藏品<br>“泡泡背” (Bubble Back)"] ``` ### [01:35:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=5759s) 金钢双色 Rolesor、狗牙圈与大萧条时期的全球化拓展 1934年，劳力士正式推出了集大成者——蚝式恒动天文台表（即收藏家眼中的 Bubble Back）。伴随着这款新表的登场，劳力士首次推出了一种全新的外观风格：将精钢与黄金结合在一起的双色设计，他们将其命名为“Rolesor”（金钢）。如今，这种中央链节为黄金、两侧链节为精钢的设计已成为劳力士辨识度最高的标志性风格之一。虽然早期的表带多由第三方外包供应商制造，但这种金与钢的色彩碰撞同样贯穿到了表壳本身，成为劳力士彼时极具开创性的设计语言。 与此同时，劳力士以及多数专业工具表上常见的“三角坑纹表圈”（fluted bezel，俗称狗牙圈）也是这一时期的经典产物。它的诞生纯粹是功能导向：表壳底盖需要像螺丝一样旋紧密闭，边缘的凹槽和坑纹正是为了给制表师提供工具咬合的抓力点，从而能够用力拧紧或拧开底盖。这种纯粹出于工具特性的设计，最终演变成了极具奢华感的美学经典。 在20世纪30年代初，劳力士还经历了一系列关键转折： - **皇冠标志亮相**：劳力士极具辨识度的五爪皇冠 Logo 于 1931 年首次出现在表盘上。 - **大萧条与英镑贬值危机**：1931 年全球陷入经济大萧条，英国宣布英镑贬值，导致英国对外部出口额暴跌了三分之二。这给严重依赖英国市场的劳力士带来了巨大冲击。 - **全球多元化自救**：劳力士并未坐以待毙，而是积极拓展全球市场，先后在巴黎、布宜诺斯艾利斯和米兰设立了办事处，并组建销售代表团前往南美洲、西印度群岛、中国和日本。 正如红杉资本创始人迈克尔·莫里茨（Michael Moritz）曾表达过的商业铁律：“衰退期是最好的创新时机。”当经济陷入低谷、竞争对手纷纷倒下之时，只要企业能够推出对的产品，就能在复苏来临时迅速踩下油门抢占先机。 ### [01:38:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=5909s) 埃格勒机芯厂的全面整合与意大利神秘代工：沛纳海（Panerai）的诞生 在潜水表领域，大众今天第一时间联想到的往往是劳力士潜航者型（Submariner）。然而在 1932 年，欧米茄（Omega）推出了早于劳力士数年的防水表 Marine，它被不少人视为世界上第一款真正的民用潜水腕表。 1936 年，劳力士迎来了一个重大商业里程碑。随着经济大萧条对钟表业竞争对手的沉重打击，劳力士展现出整合上游产业链的野心：劳力士与长期机芯供应商埃格勒（Aegler）达成协议，劳力士决定买断埃格勒的全部产能。此前同样采购埃格勒机芯的 Gruen 不得不停止合作，劳力士极有可能也是在这一时期回购了埃格勒持有的劳力士股份。随后，埃格勒甚至在厂名中加入了劳力士的名字，正式更名为“Manufacture des Montres Rolex S.A.（埃格勒劳力士制表厂）”。 随后，1940年第二次世界大战爆发，劳力士再次面临绝境。法国沦陷后，瑞士通往英国（仍是劳力士最大的市场）的陆上中欧供应链彻底被切断。面对断崖式下跌的销售渠道，瑞士表厂们只能寻找各种出路维持工厂运转。正是在这个节点，劳力士在意大利经历了一段极少为人知的传奇往事： - **意大利零售商的军方合同**：劳力士在意大利的一家零售合作伙伴拿下了意大利皇家海军为潜水突击队采购潜水表的军方大单。 - **劳力士接单代工**：这家意大利零售商请求劳力士为其代工生产深海潜水手表，工厂停工的劳力士欣然接下了这笔代工业务。 - **揭晓沛纳海（Panerai）**：这家当年的零售商正是沛纳海。如今以标志性枕形表壳和极简夜光表盘闻名（代表系列如 Luminor 和 Radiomir）的沛纳海，在二战前只是一家钟表零售与仪器销售商，并不具备制表能力；世界上第一批军用沛纳海潜水表，实际上完全是由劳力士一手代工制造的。二战结束后，沛纳海才继续沿用这套设计语言走上了独立制表品牌的道路。 ### [01:41:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=6091s) 二战阴云下的双边贸易与不列颠空战中的飞行员腕表 瑞士在第二次世界大战中的中立地位，构成了其钟表工业蓬勃发展的独特优势。制表业是典型的高精密工业，交战各国都不得不把宝贵的机械加工设备、高精机床和熟练工匠全部投入到武器弹药与军工制造中，唯独瑞士可以完整保留所有精密工匠和机加工产能，全力以赴继续制造钟表。 这导致了一种极富戏剧性的局面：劳力士一方面通过代工为轴心国阵营的意大利海军蛙人提供潜水装备；另一方面，其核心商业精力依然在绞尽脑汁试图重新打通通往同盟国阵营的英国本土市场。到了 1940 年底，劳力士终于摸索出了一条迂回的走私与转运渠道：先将腕表运送至中立国西班牙和葡萄牙，再穿过直布罗陀海峡成功输入英国。 如果说第一次世界大战普及了手腕佩戴腕表的习惯，那么第二次世界大战则彻底引爆了对高精度机械腕表的刚性需求： - **战争形态的跃迁**：一战主要是战壕内的步兵协同，而二战全面演化为由战斗机、雷达、航空母舰、装甲集群等高度现代化科技驱动的立体协同作战，对精准同步的要求达到前所未有的高度。 - **不列颠空战的极端环境考验**：在决定英国命运的不列颠空战（Battle of Britain）中，英国皇家空军（RAF）的战斗机飞行员们几乎人手佩戴劳力士腕表。二战初期的战机座舱完全没有气压密封系统，飞行员在俯冲和爬升中会遭遇剧烈的气压骤降与极端温度冲击。 - **生命攸关的领航工具**：劳力士凭借其全密封蚝式表壳与卓越防风雨能力，在夜战、暗光导航以及恶劣气流环境中展现了非凡的稳定性。虽然欧米茄在当时也是叱咤风云的行业巨头并大量装备盟军部队，但在飞行员心中，能在极端恶劣环境下保全走时精度的劳力士，已然成为最受信任的生命级工具表。 ### [01:44:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=6247s) 二战后的技术爆发与混乱的产品线 二战催生了无线电通信、雷达技术、早期计算机以及核武器与核技术。在这些前沿技术的研发与作战指挥中，科学家和军人面对着一个共同的关键维度：时间。时间的精度成了决定成败的核心要素。由此，军用计时需求迅速萌发，并在战后逐步过渡为各类专业人士对精准手表的强烈需求。 这段时期劳力士开始摸索并重组自己的产品线。此前，劳力士虽然凭借蚝式恒动官方认证精密时计（Oyster Perpetual Officially Certified Chronometer）在对的时间拿出了对的产品，但当时具体的产品形态却极其杂乱——尽管每一款表盘上都印着同样的认证标识、机芯运行原理一致，但表壳设计、盘面风格千奇百怪。彼时既没有如今清晰划分为六大系列及其子款式的官网分类，早期的劳力士广告和产品目录更是混乱到让人根本认不出表款名称。正是在走出二战阴霾的关头，劳力士意识到必须建立标准化的产品阵容；这也为日后围绕每款腕表塑造专属品牌形象、精准锚定目标用户群体、定义“佩戴这款表代表你是谁”奠定了基石。 - 战争遗产直接孕育了未来的“工具表”（Tool Watches）或“运动腕表”（Sport Watches）：即针对特定专业技术场景打造、同时能彰显佩戴者身份特质的腕表。 --- ### [01:45:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=6345s) 废墟中的欧洲与繁荣的美国新大陆 战争一结束，整个欧洲沦为一片废墟，原本的手表消费市场瞬间化为乌有。然而，大西洋彼岸的美国却完全是另一番景象：本土城市毫发无损，退伍军人（GI）带着退伍津贴返乡，民众手握充裕的可支配收入。作为资本主义世界新秩序的领导者，美国成了无可匹敌的消费中心。 节目中主持人们开玩笑探讨冷战时期的手表流动：虽然共产主义阵营表面上不鼓励奢侈消费，但黑市交易肯定暗流涌动。最著名的例子莫过于菲德尔·卡斯特罗（Fidel Castro），他以极度钟爱劳力士闻名，历史上甚至留下了单手手腕同时佩戴两块劳力士腕表（通常是一块 GMT-Master 和一块 Submariner 潜航者）的经典照片。卡斯特罗本人曾戏称戴两块是为了防备其中一块停走作为备用，但考虑到劳力士的极高稳定性，大家更倾向于认为他是为了同时看莫斯科时间和古巴时间，或者纯粹只是“因为他有这个资本任性”。 回到正规商业市场，战后的劳力士如果想做大，美国就是唯一的必争之地。创始人汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）为此精心设计了一套堪称商业奇策的“推杆连环计”（Three-putt Scheme）。 --- ### [01:47:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=6424s) 1945 年日志型（Datejust）问世与“连环赠表计” 1945 年既是二战胜利之年，也恰逢劳力士前身“威尔斯多夫与戴维斯公司”（Wilsdorf & Davis）成立 40 周年（红宝石禧年，Ruby Jubilee）。为此，劳力士推出了品牌历史上最精致的旗舰表款——日志型（Datejust）。这是真正意义上的第一款现代劳力士，也是如今与 Submariner、Daytona 齐名的经典标志性表款。 配合日志型的发布，劳力士同步推出了经典的五珠链表带。因为志在打入美国市场，汉斯·威尔斯多夫最初想将其命名为“胜利表带”（Victory Bracelet），但瑞士同事立刻劝阻了他，提醒他瑞士作为中立国，这样的命名有违中立原则。于是，这款搭配狗牙圈（Fluted Bezel）尽显华丽的表带被正式定名为“纪念型表带”（Jubilee Bracelet）。 紧接着，汉斯启动了他的“三步走赠表布局”： ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 汉斯·威尔斯多夫的劳力士名人赠表传导路径 accDescr: 展现从瑞士吉桑将军到丘吉尔，再到艾森豪威尔的劳力士赠表过程与最终品牌效应。 subgraph 传导链路 A["第 50,000 枚认证天文台表<br/>（Datejust）"] --> B["瑞士国民英雄<br/>亨利·吉桑将军"] B -. 借吉桑之手转赠.-> C["第 100,000 枚认证天文台表"] C --> D["英国首相<br/>温斯顿·丘吉尔"] D -. 借丘吉尔挚友之名.-> E["第 150,000 枚认证天文台表<br/>（黄金 Datejust）"] E --> F["盟军最高统帅 / 后任美国总统<br/>德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔"] end F --> G["确立顶级领袖腕表定位<br/>奠定征服美国市场基石"] ``` 1. **第一推（第 50,000 枚）**：劳力士下线了第 50,000 枚经官方认证的瑞士天文台表，型号正是崭新的 Datejust。汉斯将其赠予了二战期间统帅瑞士军队的国民英雄——亨利·吉桑将军（General Henri Guisan，堪称瑞士的艾森豪威尔）。 2. **第二推（第 100,000 枚）**：随着工厂全力开动，几个月后劳力士迎来了第 100,000 枚天文台表。汉斯找到刚成为“劳力士挚友”的吉桑将军，请他代表劳力士将这枚腕表转赠给他的好友——英国战时首相温斯顿·丘吉尔（Winston Churchill）。丘吉尔欣然受赠，成为劳力士拥趸。 3. **第三推（第 150,000 枚）**：不到一年后，第 150,000 枚认证天文台表（黄金款 Datejust）诞生。汉斯借由丘吉尔也佩戴劳力士的渊源与影响力，将这枚表送给了盟军最高统帅、诺曼底胜利的设计师德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔将军（Dwight D. Eisenhower）。艾森豪威尔接受了礼物，从此腕间几乎常年佩戴这款黄金 Datejust。1952 年，艾森豪威尔正式当选美国总统，劳力士也随之顺理成章地登上了美国权力巅峰者的手腕。 --- ### [01:50:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=6653s) “主宰世界命运之人，佩戴劳力士” 艾森豪威尔佩戴着日志型宣誓就职，彻底启发了劳力士未来几十年的品牌定位核心逻辑：**主宰世界的人佩戴劳力士**。 劳力士随即聘请了位于纽约的顶级广告代理商智威汤逊（J. Walter Thompson，JWT）。双方紧密合作，在美国各大主流杂志上打出了极具霸气的全版广告，其标语甚至直白得令人惊叹： > “主宰世界命运的人，佩戴劳力士腕表。”（*Men who guide the destinies of the world wear Rolex watches.*） 这种舍我其谁的广告文案在今天看来极为大胆与露骨，但放到当时却无比真实：艾森豪威尔、丘吉尔乃至卡斯特罗，手腕上戴的全部都是劳力士。主持人们感叹，这类文案比美剧《广告狂人》里的唐·德雷珀（Don Draper）还要精妙，随后的岁月里劳力士又接连产出了多句载入营销史册的金句： > “当一个人将世界握在手中，你会理所当然地在他腕上看到一枚劳力士。”（*When a man has the world in his hands, you expect to find a Rolex on his wrist.*） > “劳力士绝不会改变世界，我们把这件事留给佩戴它的人。”（*A Rolex will never change the world. We leave that to the people who wear them.*） 这种精准的品牌定位，一改当年赞助梅赛德丝·吉莉丝（Mercedes Gleitze）横渡英吉利海峡时所强调的“人类极限挑战与成就”，转而直接绑定“掌控权力的世界领袖”。虽然这种顶层叙事能够带来无与伦比的品牌光环（Brand Halo），但潜在市场容量毕竟有限——进入 50 和 60 年代，大众真正渴望模仿和追随的，更多是像高尔夫巨星阿诺德·帕尔默（Arnold Palmer）这样的人物，而非高高在上的艾森豪威尔。 --- ### [01:53:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=6820s) 日志型的小窗凸透镜（Cyclops）与威尔斯多夫基金会 关于日志型（Datejust）的诞生与细节演变，还有一个充满温情的产品细节： - 腕表之所以命名为“Datejust”，是因为它在表盘 3 点钟位置开设了一个精确显示当月日期的日历小窗。 - 如今标志性的放大日历显示窗——官方称之为“独眼巨人”小窗凸透镜（Cyclops lens），相传来源于汉斯的第二任妻子贝蒂·威尔斯多夫-梅特勒（Betty Wilsdorf-Mettler）。 - 汉斯的第一任妻子安娜（Anna）于 1944 年二战结束前夕不幸早逝。正是在遭受丧妻之痛且膝下无子的背景下，汉斯设立了“汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会”（Hans Wilsdorf Foundation），并将自己持有的全部劳力士公司股份投入其中。 - 后来汉斯续弦娶了贝蒂，贝蒂非常喜爱日志型腕表，小窗凸透镜正是汉斯为了方便妻子看清微小的日历数字而设计的贴心改进。时至今日，女装日志型（Lady-Datejust）依然是劳力士全系产品中最畅销的常青单品之一。 ### [01:54:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=6886s) 放大镜“独眼巨人”与从正装表向现代腕表的演进 劳力士日志型（Datejust）在推出后迅速成为男女皆宜的爆款，女款的推出使得女性客户甚至贡献了 50% 的销量。然而，汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）的妻子贝蒂（Betty）非常喜欢 Datejust，却一直抱怨日期窗口里的小数字太小、难以看清。据劳力士官方流传的故事（两位主持人打趣道：“这故事太离谱了，你编都编不出来，但劳力士偏偏就编出来了”）：某天早晨，汉斯在浴室洗漱时戴着 Datejust，一滴水珠恰好滴在日期窗口正上方的表镜上，水滴形成的凸面瞬间放大了下方的数字。汉斯犹如在浴缸里顿悟的阿基米德一般高呼：“我想到了！我想到了！”这便是劳力士标志性的“独眼巨人”（Cyclops）日历放大镜镜片的灵感由来。 Datejust 本质上是一只极具权威感的高端正装表（dress watch），适合身穿笔挺西装、执掌世界秩序的领袖人物在体面场合佩戴。然而从 1950 年代开始，劳力士做出了一个改变品牌命运的决定：他们不仅要做正装表，还要制造那种“让你在进行极限活动时可以佩戴，而在极限挑战结束后直接去参加高级晚宴依然光彩夺目”的手表。这就是劳力士在安德烈·海尼格（André Heiniger）主导下于 1950 年代构建起的现代核心资产——运动腕表家族，包括潜航者型（Submariner）、探险家型（Explorer）、格林尼治型（GMT-Master）和迪通拿（Daytona）。这与丘吉尔或艾森豪威尔当年手腕上的传统正装表已截然不同。 ### [01:56:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=6999s) 安德烈·海尼格与“专业腕表”的品牌重构 安德烈·海尼格于 1948 年二战后加入劳力士，他受过律师训练，起初负责劳力士在南美市场的开拓，随后调回日内瓦总部担任市场营销总监。海尼格主导了引进知名广告代理商智威汤逊（J. Walter Thompson），推出了名垂广告史的“掌握世界命运之人”（Destinies of the World）营销战役，并于 1955 年升任劳力士钟表主管，随后开启与马克·麦考马克（Mark McCormack）及 IMG 经纪公司的深度合作，打造了日后闻名遐迩的劳力士“代言人”（Testimonees）体系。 海尼格敏锐地洞察到，劳力士在 1930 年代凭借技术、工程与精密制造建立起的护城河在 1950 和 1960 年代已经不再牢不可破。当时瑞士拥有成熟的外部零部件制造网络（Établissage），全瑞士有 30 多家钟表企业（如欧米茄 Omega）完全能够采购到同等级别的零部件，造出与劳力士性能平分秋色的腕表。汉斯·威尔斯多夫当年的工程天才已不足以在新时代形成垄断性壁垒。劳力士必须超越手腕上的“纯硬件产品”，转向“佩戴这枚腕表代表了你是谁”的身份信号与品牌认同。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士从技术壁垒到专业腕表的战略演进 accDescr: 展示劳力士在1950年代由产品技术导向转向生活方式与专业腕表品牌构建的过程。 subgraph Phase1["1930-1940年代：功能与技术护城河"] A["蚝式防水表壳与恒动机芯"] --> B["建立精密制表声誉"] end subgraph Crisis["1950年代行业挑战"] B -.-> C["瑞士外协零部件体系普及\n竞品迅速拉齐硬件差距"] end subgraph Phase2["安德烈·海尼格的品牌转型"] C --> D["从卖工具转向卖生活方式与身份信号"] D --> E["定义'专业腕表'范畴\n（Professional Watches）"] end subgraph Products["1953-1955 核心产品矩阵"] E --> F["Turn-O-Graph / 探险家型 Explorer"] E --> G["潜航者型 Submariner / 格林尼治型 GMT-Master"] E --> H["防磁腕表 Milgauss"] end ``` 在 1953 至 1955 年间，仍由汉斯掌舵、海尼格推进的劳力士一口气推出了五款革命性新品：Explorer、Turn-O-Graph、Submariner、Milgauss 和 GMT-Master。行业通常将这类手表称为“工具表”（Tool Watches）或“运动表”（Sport Watches），但劳力士坚持将它们定义为“专业腕表”（Professional Watches）。在劳力士的语境中，“专业”并非指西装革履的白领，而是指职业赛车手、职业飞行员、专业潜水员和极端科研人员。这体现了劳力士一贯的品牌哲学：拒绝被归入现有类别，创造专属的“劳力士之道”（The Rolex Way），永远不被外界定义的标签所束缚。 - **品牌定位蜕变**：海尼格推动的这一阶段，是劳力士从“专业工具”向“生活方式品牌”（Lifestyle Brand）演进的第一步，并为几十年后蜕变为终极奢侈品奠定了基石。 - **劳力士的非凡定义学**：劳力士拒绝将自己的产品称为运动表，甚至在官方视频中以“罗列所有我们不是什么”的方式来定义自身，坚称自己的表“绝非无限制，因为无限制本身就是一种限制”，打造出近乎形而上学的品牌独特性。 ### [02:01:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=7268s) 试水之作：Turn-O-Graph 与 Milgauss 的曲折命运 在这批专业腕表中，命运最坎坷的是 Turn-O-Graph。它的名字在今天听来十分生硬，也早已从官方授权零售店的目录中消失。Turn-O-Graph 的核心功能是表盘外圈配有一个可旋转表圈，用于记录特定事件的耗时。然而，劳力士当年的宣传定位却出现了一次令人啼笑皆非的“脱靶”：他们将其营销为一款帮助跨国商务精英精确计算国际长途电话时长的腕表，以节省昂贵的长途话费。这种“省电话费”的卖点毫无浪漫情怀与冒险精神可言，完全无法引发消费者对精英生活方式的向往。 另一款充满极客色彩但初期销量平平的作品是 Milgauss。它是劳力士与瑞士欧洲核子研究组织（CERN）粒子加速器的工程师合作开发的，专为在强磁场环境下工作的科学家量身定制。机械表中负责计时的游丝极易被磁场磁化，导致走时暴走或停转，而 Milgauss 凭借出色的抗磁屏蔽结构，能在高达 1000 高斯的磁场中保持精准。虽然科学家的受众面过于狭窄导致该表一度停产，但劳力士在 2007 年将其复刻带回，其标志性的橙色闪电形秒针和独特配色瞬间俘获了大量拥趸，成为极具辨识度与科学浪漫色彩的经典表款。 ### [02:04:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=7446s) 探险家型（Explorer）与珠峰登顶的神话 在这套专业腕表矩阵中，真正引爆传奇的是探险家型（Explorer）。该腕表的传奇与 1953 年人类首次登顶珠穆朗玛峰的历史壮举紧密相连。当时，艾德蒙·希拉里爵士（Sir Edmund Hillary）与夏尔巴人丹增·诺盖（Tenzing Norgay）攀登珠穆朗玛峰时，佩戴了劳力士赞助的 Oyster Perpetual 原型表，这也构成了日后 Explorer 的设计蓝本。 劳力士的专业腕表开发模式在此成型：与真正在严苛极端环境中创造人类壮举的先驱深度合作，进行极限工况下的原型测试。希拉里和诺盖登顶珠峰的史诗级成就，被劳力士深深烙印进品牌叙事中，成为 Explorer 乃至整个劳力士神话的核心篇章，两人随后也顺理成章地成为了劳力士最早的一批官方代言人（Testimonees）。 ### [02:05:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=7512s) 珠峰登顶与探险家型（Explorer）的诞生 虽然劳力士在此后将多位登山家纳为品牌大使，让他们在余生中不断宣扬劳力士有多么出色，但历史上埃德蒙·希拉里爵士（Edmund Hillary）本人其实更偏爱一块英国史密斯（Smiths）手表。事实上，史密斯才是那次珠峰远征队的官方装备赞助商，劳力士并不是。不过两位主持人认为，两块表极有可能都登上了世界之巅，无论当时是戴在手腕上还是放在背包里。劳力士与人类征服珠穆朗玛峰之间建立起了牢不可破的品牌联结，这种深厚的公关与神话塑造能力堪称一绝。 由此诞生的劳力士探险家型（Rolex Explorer），正是为了承受极端的压力剧变、在登顶珠峰后依然能精准走时而设计的坚固腕表。对于那个时代的极限探险而言，精准计时往往关乎生死，腕表是登山家不可或缺的核心工具。探险家型没有复杂花哨的可动部件或额外复杂功能，甚至没有旋转表圈，表盘极为简洁明了，确保在极端恶劣环境下依然清晰易读。这款腕表自诞生起便成为劳力士旗下一款经久不衰的经典图腾。 ### [02:06:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=7591s) 潜航者型（Submariner）：独立于品牌之外的超级符号 紧接着登场的是潜航者型（Submariner，俗称“水鬼”）。主持人感叹，如果把潜航者型从劳力士中剥离出来，它的影响力甚至可能比劳力士品牌本身还要庞大，就像把达拉斯牛仔队（Dallas Cowboys）从 NFL 中单列出来一样——它是独立运转的超级商业帝国。对于打算收藏多枚劳力士的手表爱好者来说，“水鬼”几乎是不容错过的入门必选首选。 潜航者型是劳力士专业潜水表的开山鼻祖。虽然沛纳海（Panerai）曾采用劳力士机芯和表壳制造过早期潜水表，但真正确立现代潜水腕表标准的正是潜航者型。它最初具备 100 米的防水能力。虽然绝大多数买家绝不可能潜入 100 米深海，但主持人指出，这 100 米的防水冗余至关重要：人在水下挥动手臂或快速移动时会产生瞬时水压，即便潜入 20 米深度，瞬时压力也可能接近表壳承受极限。正因如此，劳力士在测试时普遍会预留超越标称的严苛安全余量（常规腕表大约预留 10%，而专业潜水表更是预留高达 25% 的安全余量），确保在深潜时万无一失。 ### [02:08:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=7726s) 雅克·库斯托与海底勘测的工具属性 在潜航者型问世的 1952 至 1953 年前后，全球流行文化的焦点集中在法国探险家雅克·库斯托（Jacques Cousteau）身上。作为水肺潜水（scuba diving）的发明者与全球闻名的海底探险先驱，库斯托当时正在地中海拍摄纪录片《寂静的世界》（*The Silent World*，该片于 1956 年斩获奥斯卡最佳纪录片奖）。全人类第一次跟随他的镜头窥探神秘的海底异世界，而库斯托与他的船员在深潜驾驶器中佩戴的正是劳力士腕表。 尽管库斯托与劳力士之间当时并没有正式的赞助商业协议，但他本人及其团队都是劳力士的忠实拥趸。在现代潜水电脑普及之前，潜水表并非装饰品，而是记录“水底停留时间（bottom time）”以防患减压病的保命工具。潜航者型作为一件应对严酷水下环境的专业硬核工具，与库斯托的探索精神完美契合，也让劳力士借由影视镜头走向了全球观众。 ### [02:10:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=7847s) 007 邦德与植入广告的争议博弈 1962 年，首部詹姆斯·邦德（James Bond）电影《诺博士》（*Dr. No*）横空出世。原著作者伊恩·弗莱明（Ian Fleming）本人是劳力士的狂热粉丝，在原著小说中就明确设定邦德佩戴劳力士。有趣的是，根据弗莱明的原著设定，邦德的母亲是瑞士人，父亲是英国人，这一血统恰好与起源于英国、扎根于瑞士的劳力士如出一辙。肖恩·康纳利（Sean Connery）在《诺博士》中佩戴了潜航者型，并在其后的邦德电影中一路延续这一搭配。 邦德既能在海底拆除炸弹，又能立刻戴着同一块手表换上燕尾服陪同邦女郎出席高规格奢华晚宴，这为劳力士的生活方式品牌形象打下了无可匹敌的基础。这一经典搭配从 1962 年一直延续到了 1995 年。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 詹姆斯·邦德腕表代言沿革 accDescr: 展示从1962年肖恩·康纳利佩戴劳力士潜航者型，到1995年皮尔斯·布鲁斯南时代转为欧米茄海马系列的历史沿革与商业逻辑分歧。 subgraph RolexEra["劳力士黄金时代 (1962-1995)"] F["伊恩·弗莱明原著设定"] --> C["肖恩·康纳利佩戴潜航者型"] C --> T["非付费真实佩戴<br/>塑造硬汉/特工标杆"] end subgraph OmegaEra["欧米茄商业重塑 (1995年起)"] G["1995《黄金眼》上映<br/>皮尔斯·布鲁斯南接棒"] --> O["改用欧米茄海马系列 (Seamaster)"] O --> M["商业大片植入赞助时代<br/>(每逢新片带动销量暴涨)"] end RolexEra -->|品牌形象重塑与商业竞标| OmegaEra ``` 关于 1995 年《黄金眼》（*GoldenEye*）中邦德为何改戴欧米茄海马（Omega Seamaster），两位主持人展开了激烈争论： - **商业赞助论**：一方认为 1995 年正是好莱坞商业大片全方位开启商业赞助的节点（如宝马 Z3 敞篷跑车的植入），制片方将腕表赞助权对外公开招标，而劳力士从来不参与付费植入广告（Paid Product Placement），欧米茄则通过豪掷千金成功拿下，此后每逢 007 电影上映，欧米茄销量都会迎来爆发式增长。 - **有机合作论**：另一方援引 Watches of Espionage 等资料指出，起初该剧服装设计师主动联系欧米茄，欧米茄免费提供了海马腕表，最初并不存在商业广告报酬，直到后来才演变成巨额商业赞助。 ### [02:14:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=8065s) 海使型（Sea-Dweller）与超级潜水工具 潜航者型的成功还孕育了一个更加强悍的技术分支——1967 年问世的海使型（Sea-Dweller，被戏称为“超级水鬼”）。劳力士当时与法国深海潜水作业公司 COMEX 合作，针对饱和潜水员在减压仓上升过程中表壳内部残留氦气、导致表镜因内部气压爆裂的难题，专门研发了具备排氦阀门（Helium Escape Valve）的专业潜水表。 海使型将防水深度直接提升至 600 米，彻底解决了氦气减压问题。尽管现实中除了 COMEX 的专业深海潜水员外，几乎没有任何普通买家真正需要用到排氦阀门和 600 米极限防水，但正是这种登峰造极的技术过剩与专业传奇，为劳力士赋予了无可替代的情感浪漫与奢华溢价。 ### [02:15:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=8124s) 潜入深海：从 Sea-Dweller 到 Deepsea Challenge 从潜航者型（Submariner）演进到海使型（Sea-Dweller），劳力士并未止步，而是走向了极限中的极限——Deepsea 系列。劳力士在原有专业潜水表理念的基础上进行激进创新，制造出的原型表表壳极厚，根本无法当作普通日常腕表佩戴在手腕上。常规款 Deepsea 的防水深度已经达到了令人惊叹的 3,900 米；而劳力士随后打造的极致版本 Deepsea Challenge，更将耐压防水规格推向了 11,000 米的深渊极境。 著名导演兼探险家詹姆斯·卡梅隆（James Cameron）驾驶单人深潜器“深海挑战者号”下潜至马里亚纳海沟（Mariana Trench）的世界最深处。在这项史诗级的探险中，劳力士将 Deepsea Challenge 腕表直接挂载在潜艇的外壁上。因为在如此可怕的水压下，任何置身艇外的人体都会被彻底压碎，放在艇内测试毫无意义。最终，这款腕表在万米深海经受住了极限水压的考验，完全隔绝水分且精准走时。卡梅隆的亲历见证，再次为劳力士写下了传奇注脚。两位主持人指出，无论是 Submariner、Sea-Dweller 还是 Deepsea，这些表款都使用英文命名，精准锚定了二战后繁荣崛起的美国主流消费市场。 - **防水等级梯队**：从基础潜水工具表逐步迈进，常规 Deepsea 达到 3,900 米防水，而极限版本 Deepsea Challenge 则能抵御 11,000 米海底的极端水压。 - **艇外极限测试**：卡梅隆深潜马里亚纳海沟时，腕表被固定在深潜器机械臂或外壳上，全程暴露于深海环境，完好无损且走时分秒不差。 --- ### [02:17:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=8234s) 飞向蓝天：喷气机时代与 GMT-Master 的诞生 从万米海底转向万米高空，劳力士迎来了民航时代的里程碑之作——GMT-Master（格林尼治型）。1955年，波音公司推出了里程碑式的波音 707（Boeing 707）喷气式客机（该机型脱胎于美国空军空中加油机的构型设计）。次年（1956年），泛美航空（Pan Am）率先使用波音 707 开启跨大西洋及跨洲际喷气式商业飞行，人类正式迈入“喷气机时代”（Jet Age）。随着飞行速度大幅超越以往轮船和螺旋桨客机，一个全新的生理现象随之出现——时差反应（Jet Lag）。 频繁穿梭于大西洋和太平洋两岸的泛美航空飞行员饱受时差困扰。为了保障飞行安全与作息规律，泛美航空认为最理想的方案是让飞行员无论飞抵伦敦还是巴黎，始终保持其基地（如纽约）的本地时间运作。为此，泛美航空携手劳力士，共同开发一款能同时显示两个时区时间的全新专业腕表。劳力士在此前商业上不太成功的 Turn-O-Graph 腕表基础上进行改造：利用其双向旋转外圈，将原本 60 分钟刻度换成 24 小时刻度，并在机芯中加入一根以 24 小时运转一圈的第四根指针。这样一来，飞行员在同一个表盘上就能一目了然地读取两个时区，GMT-Master 应运而生。 随后，劳力士为旋转外圈引入了双色设计，其中最著名的上半圈红、下半圈蓝配色被表友戏称为“百事圈”（Pepsi），用红蓝两色直观区分昼夜。表友社群后来还自发给各类双色圈取了生动的外号，例如“蝙蝠侠”（Batman，蓝黑圈）和“雪碧”（Sprite，绿黑圈）等。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: GMT-Master 演进与设计逻辑 accDescr: 展示劳力士如何结合喷气机时代飞行员需求与既有技术创造出 GMT-Master subgraph Context["时代背景与痛点"] A["波音 707 投入民航<br/>泛美航空跨洲飞行"] --> B["产生时差反应 (Jet Lag)<br/>跨洋机组作息混乱"] end subgraph Solution["劳力士方案：GMT-Master"] C["借鉴 Turn-O-Graph<br/>双向旋转外圈"] --> D["外圈刻度改设为<br/>24 小时刻度"] E["机芯增设第四根指针<br/>以 24 小时周期转动"] --> F["红蓝双色外圈 (百事圈)<br/>一表直观掌握双时区"] end B --> Solution ``` --- ### [02:20:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=8418s) 太空竞赛与阿波罗计划的腕表博弈 进入 1960 年代，人类对天空探索的浪漫想象从民航客机升级到了外太空与阿波罗登月计划。在这一领域，NASA 的官方标准配发腕表是欧米茄超霸系列（Omega Speedmaster），也就是举世闻名的“月球表”（Moonwatch）。主持人指出，在四五十以及六十年代，欧米茄曾是体量与声势均压过劳力士的真正行业巨人，是劳力士全力追赶的目标；欧米茄拿下登月官方指定用表，在当时劳力士“为人类最崇高成就护航”的品牌策略上留下了不小的缺口。 然而，劳力士仍以充满戏剧性的方式渗透进了这段太空史。在劳力士日内瓦总部，挂着一张珍贵的阿波罗 13 号（Apollo 13）任务宇航员杰克·斯威格特（Jack Swigert，电影中由凯文·贝肯饰演）亲笔签名的照片。斯威格特将照片题赠给时任劳力士公关主管勒内·让（René Jeanneret），并写道“感谢你让我始终保持准时”。尽管 NASA 官方配发了欧米茄超霸，但斯威格特及其他部分宇航员出于个人偏好，在执行太空任务时自愿佩戴了自己的劳力士 GMT-Master。如同肖恩·康纳利（Sean Connery）在《007》中选择劳力士一样，宇航员自发的私人选择赋予了品牌不可替代的说服力。关于当年官方选拔，坊间流传劳力士因纽约采购办公室的沟通失误才错失 NASA 订单，但无论历史版本如何，劳力士都凭借宇航员的自发佩戴，在登月壮举中分得了一杯羹。 --- ### [02:22:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=8571s) 现代代言制度的确立：IMG 与体坛顶级传奇 进入 1960 年代中叶，在掌门人安德烈·海尼格（André Heiniger）的主导下，劳力士正式开启了现代品牌大使（Testimonee）策略的爆发期。一方面，劳力士继续深耕探险与专业工具表，同时在正装奢华线上推出了备受权贵青睐的星期日历型（Day-Date，即“总统表”/President）；另一方面，劳力士敏锐地抓住了现代体育经纪业崛起的浪潮。 1960 年，马克·麦考马克（Mark McCormack）创立了现代体育名人经纪先驱——IMG 公司。劳力士与麦考马克携手，开创性地签下了高尔夫球坛著名的“三巨头”（The Big Three）：阿诺德·帕尔默（Arnold Palmer）、加里·普莱尔（Gary Player）和杰克·尼克劳斯（Jack Nicklaus）。这三位体坛传奇在漫长的职业生涯甚至余生中，都成为坚定的劳力士代言人。这一模式成为日后体坛赞助的黄金蓝本，直接启发了后来的泰格·伍兹（Tiger Woods）以及罗杰·费德勒（Roger Federer）等世纪巨星的合作。 劳力士在体育赞助上的战略极其纯粹——“只聚焦最顶尖的精英”。他们不广撒网，而是把资源砸在无可争议的传奇人物和殿堂级赛事上： - **高尔夫领域**：不仅网罗了从帕尔默、普莱尔、尼克劳斯到泰格·伍兹、斯科蒂·舍夫勒（Scottie Scheffler）、乔丹·斯皮思（Jordan Spieth）等历代冠军，在赛事层面更重点锁定殿堂级的美国大师赛（The Masters）。 - **网球领域**：自罗杰·费德勒代言后，网球与劳力士的优雅硬朗形象高度契合，如今劳力士已将四大满贯赛事（澳网、法网、温网、美网）全数纳入赞助版图。 - **机械腕表的耐震证明**：高尔夫和网球在品牌调性上与瑞士奢华腕表契合，更有深层技术渊源——从 1930 年代汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）创立蚝式表起，挥杆击球所产生的瞬间剧烈冲击力，极易震坏精密的游丝和摆轮系统。能够承受挥拍击球剧烈震动的腕表，本身就是对机芯坚固耐用性的终极证明。 ### [02:26:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=8769s) 顶级运动员的持久统治力与专业工具表的收尾 网球和高尔夫这类运动的一大特点在于，顶尖运动员可以维持极长的高峰期，长期稳坐世界之巅，这与其他体能消耗剧烈的项目截然不同。罗杰·费德勒（Roger Federer）、阿诺德·帕尔默（Arnold Palmer）、杰克·尼克劳斯（Jack Nicklaus）等人，都在长达数十年的时间里保持着绝对的统治力，站在人类成就的巅峰。这不仅体现了运动生涯的持久，也与劳力士（Rolex）所代表的恒久品质完美契合。 回顾劳力士标志性的专业运动工具表系列，每一款都定位明确、声名远播。然而，还有一个传奇表款尚未提及——那正是两位主持人手腕上此刻正佩戴着的腕表：迪通拿（Daytona）。 --- ### [02:26:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=8811s) 劳力士迪通拿：二手钟表收藏市场的真正缔造者 迪通拿可以说开创了一个完全属于自己的独立市场，并从根本上彻底颠覆了整个机械表行业。正如后文将要详述的，迪通拿纯粹是由于一个历史的偶然，演变成了一场席卷全球的现象级狂潮。它一手奠定了现代腕表收藏家市场，如今各大拍卖行里那些令人咋舌的成交天价和疯狂竞价，其源头都可以追溯至迪通拿。 虽然迪通拿是这场腕表狂潮中最核心的推动力之一，但在深入展开它的传奇故事之前，节目先插入了一段赞助商致谢。 --- ### [02:27:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=8853s) 赞助商播报：ServiceNow 的自动化之路与企业 AI 操作系统 ServiceNow 经常被称为企业的“AI 操作系统”，其发展历程可以追溯到 22 年前。当时他们专注于将物理纸质工作流转变为软件工作流，最初仅服务于企业内部的 IT 部门。在此后二十年间，他们逐步横向拓展，将平台能力延伸至人力资源（HR）、财务、客户服务、现场运营等各个业务部门。 正因 ServiceNow 在过去几十年里默默铺设了打通企业各个角落的基础设施与数据联结，当 AI 浪潮来袭时，作为高级任务自动化工具的 AI 顺理成章地找到了最佳落地平台。如今，HR 与 IT 可以用它管理跨部门的员工、设备与软件许可；客户服务可以用它自动识别支付失败并分流处理；供应链可以用它做产能规划。最近，ServiceNow 还推出了 AI Agent，让任何岗位的员工都能调用智能体处理琐碎工作。 --- ### [02:30:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9000s) 什么是计时码表？从计时器到“宇宙计型” 回到迪通拿的话题：它到底是一推出就轰动全球，还是历经坎坷？与劳力士的其他腕表不同，迪通拿是一款计时码表（Chronograph）——当然，劳力士一贯喜欢自造词汇，官方称之为“Cosmograph（宇宙计型）”。所谓计时码表，通俗来说就是一个机械秒表。普通的机械表结构已经极为复杂，而迪通拿则在表盘上集成了多个功能：大表盘配有中心计时秒针，此外还配有三个独立小表盘，分别用于指示走时秒数、计时分钟和计时小时。 事实上，劳力士制作计时码表的历史非常悠久，早在二战前、安德烈·海尼格（André Heiniger）掌舵之前就推出了第一款工具计时表。然而在最初的三十年里，这款表一直默默无闻，市场上毫无热度可言。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 劳力士迪通拿表盘布局构成 accDescr: 展示迪通拿四个指示表盘的功能分布，包含主表盘走时及三个小计时盘。 subgraph Dial["迪通拿主表盘"] Main["中心计时秒针<br/>(常规走时 + 计时)"] end subgraph SubDials["三个独立副表盘"] Sec["小秒盘<br/>(日常秒数走时)"] Min["30分钟计时盘<br/>(累计计时分钟)"] Hour["12小时计时盘<br/>(累计计时小时)"] end Dial --- SubDials ``` --- ### [02:31:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9081s) 1963 命名迪通拿：赛车热潮、保罗·纽曼与“小心驾驶” 1962年，劳力士成为当时刚建成不久的美国佛罗里达州迪通拿国际赛道（Daytona International Speedway）的官方计时。次年（1963年），劳力士正式将旗下生产了三十多年的计时码表命名为“Daytona”（迪通拿）。劳力士曾考虑过使用法国著名的“勒芒”（Le Mans）作为名字，但劳力士深知二战后的核心增长市场是美国，“Le Mans”包含美国人容易读错的法语不发音字母，而“Daytona”发音清晰响亮、朗朗上口。在 1962 年的美国，再没有比迪通拿赛道、24小时耐力赛、疾驰赛车和好莱坞明星更能代表美国式的繁荣与魅力了。 1969年，好莱坞顶级巨星保罗·纽曼（Paul Newman）主演了赛车电影《获胜》（Winning）。拍完这部电影后，他真正爱上了赛车并成为了一名业余赛车手。他同样著名的演员妻子乔安·伍德沃德（Joanne Woodward）便送给他一枚劳力士迪通拿腕表，并在表背深情刻上了流传后世的铭文：“Drive carefully - Me”（小心驾驶——爱你的我）。 - **1962年**：劳力士成为迪通拿国际赛道官方计时。 - **1963年**：劳力士正式采用“Daytona”命名该系列计时码表。 - **1969年**：保罗·纽曼主演赛车电影《获胜》，赛后正式投身赛车运动。 - **表背刻字**：“Drive carefully - Me”，成为腕表历史上最浪漫且昂贵的铭文。 --- ### [02:33:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9200s) 赠予女儿男友的旧表，与日后的 1750 万美元天价拍卖 尽管劳力士完成了一切天衣无缝的品牌布局，然而市场在一开始并没有买账，迪通拿依然滞销。保罗·纽曼经常戴着这枚表接受杂志拍照，佩戴了长达十余年。到了 1984 年，纽曼的女儿内尔（Nell）带着男友詹姆斯·考克斯（James Cox）回家。纽曼随口问男友现在几点，男友答道：“我不知道，我没戴表。”纽曼便顺手摘下自己手腕上的迪通拿递给他，说：“拿去戴吧，这块表走时挺准的（Here, take this one, it keeps good time）。”在当时，这枚二手迪通拿在市场上大概只值 200 美元左右。谁也未曾料到，正是这枚纽曼随手送人的腕表，数十年后在拍卖会上以高达 1750 万美元的创纪录天价成交。 --- ### [02:35:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9315s) 意大利狂热：异域表盘引爆二级市场神话 转折点发生在纽曼送出腕表的两年后——1986年。当时美国本土尚未形成成熟的腕表收藏文化，大众买表只是为了彰显社会地位和成功；而在欧洲，尤其是意大利，早已有深厚成熟的腕表鉴赏与二级市场交易文化。 不知出于何种诱因（有传言称 80 年代初保罗·纽曼曾戴着该表登上过某本意大利时尚杂志的封面，但无人能找到那期杂志的原版），意大利的古董表商们突然开始疯狂搜购 60 年代末至 70 年代初生产的特定款式迪通拿。这类被称为“保罗·纽曼迪通拿”的款式拥有极具辨识度的“异域风情表盘”（Exotic Dial）： - **装饰艺术（Art Deco）风格**的副表盘刻度与独特字体； - 刻度外圈边缘带有一圈醒目的**红色轨道刻度**； - 副表盘的数字刻度采用富有特色的方块计时标记。 意大利商人的疯狂扫货，宛如在大洋彼岸扇动翅膀的蝴蝶，彻底点燃了全球钟表收藏界对迪通拿长达数十年、愈演愈烈的狂热追捧。 ### [02:37:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9420s) 迪通拿测速计与投行新人的腕表文化 劳力士迪通拿（Rolex Daytona）乃至绝大多数计时码表（Chronograph）都有一个极具标志性的外圈设计——测速计（Tachymeter，表圈标注“Units per hour”）。表圈刻度从400一直递减到60。其使用逻辑非常直观：当赛车手以恒定速度行驶一英里（或一公里）时，在起点按下计时启动键，行驶完一英里时再次按下停止键，此时秒针所指的外圈数值就是这趟行驶的平均时速（英里/小时）。如果在1分钟内开完一英里，秒针转满一圈停在正上方12点位置，外圈对应数值正是60；如果车速极快，读数最高可达400。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 迪通拿测速计工作原理 accDescr: 展示赛车手如何利用迪通拿表圈测速计测量平均时速的三个步骤 A["起点发车<br/>按计时按键启动秒针"] --> B["行驶满1英里/1公里<br/>再次按下按键停止秒针"] B --> C["读取秒针指向的外圈刻度<br/>即为平均时速（60至400）"] ``` 当 Ben 解释这个功能时，David 惊讶地表示自己完全不知道这串数字是干什么用的，引来 Ben 的吐槽：“你开玩笑吧？你自己就戴着这块表啊！”David 笑着解释，自己已经十五年没碰过这块表了。早年他在投资银行工作，当时投行有着极其浓厚的腕表阶层文化。David 的父亲很早就是个硬核的手表收藏家，早在腕表投资在美国市场彻底爆发前就买了许多表。David 毕业进入投行时，父亲送了他几块表，其中就有一块白盘精钢迪通拿（Stainless White Face Rolex Daytona）。 这块迪通拿在投行引起了不小的尴尬。它绝非普通分析师拿到第一笔年终奖会去买的入门表，甚至也不是普通 Associate 能戴的，而是属于 VP（副总裁）乃至更高层级才能压得住场子的“神表”（It Watch）。高层银行家们看到这个初出茅庐的年轻人手腕上戴着迪通拿，眼神里全都是“这毛头小子到底什么来头”。这种微妙的格格不入反而扑灭了 David 对手表的兴趣。后来他搬到西海岸，彻底摘下机械表，手腕空空如也，直到 Apple Watch 问世才成为日常佩戴，而这块迪通拿则在保险箱里沉睡了十几年，直到录制前夕才被作为彩蛋重新翻了出来。 - 迪通拿外圈刻度覆盖 400 到 60，通过测量行驶单英里所耗秒数换算平均车速。 - 在投资银行的职场潜规则中，精钢白盘迪通拿属于 VP 级别的腕表，初级分析师佩戴会显得极度违和。 --- ### [02:40:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9606s) 保罗·纽曼效应与手表投资狂潮的萌芽 保罗·纽曼（Paul Newman）佩戴那款特殊盘面迪通拿所引发的热潮，最终漫溢到了整个迪通拿产品线，让每一块迪通拿都成为极度抢手的硬通货。到了 1986 年，某些保罗·纽曼盘面迪通拿的市场价格已经飙升至 30,000 美元以上——而仅仅在两年前，保罗·纽曼本人随手把自己那块当时仅值 200 美元的手表送给了女儿的男朋友。 这并非单一孤立事件创造了全球腕表收藏与投资市场，但它绝对是一个历史性的转折点。大众与收藏圈突然意识到：这些精密机械不仅是买来佩戴的消费品，它们更是可以保值增值、在二级市场高频交易的另类投资资产。这种将手表视为投资标的的狂潮在 20 世纪 70 至 80 年代逐渐成型，彻底改变了钟表行业的生态。 --- ### [02:41:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9666s) “If You Were...”：从权力象征到生活方式的巅峰广告战役 伴随一系列专业工具表（Professional Watches）的推出，劳力士在营销视野上完成了关键蜕变。此前的劳力士广告主要聚焦于“执掌世界命运的领袖佩戴劳力士”这一高高在上的权威形象；到了 1960 年代，水鬼潜水员、GMT 飞行员以及迪通拿赛车手的出现，让劳力士意识到可以通过兜售这些领域顶尖专家的极致生活方式来卖出更多手表。营销主题从“支配世界”拓展为“人类的非凡成就”。 在 1967 年至 1970 年间，劳力士推出了广告史上的经典神作——“If You Were...”系列平面广告。画面采用大号粗体的 Helvetica 字体，完全摒弃枯燥的产品参数或功能罗列，纯粹依靠生活方式与自我认同来打动消费者： - **协和客机篇**：画面上是超音速飞行的协和客机，配上一块 GMT-Master，文案写道：“如果你明天要驾驶协和客机，你会戴劳力士”（"If you were flying the Concord tomorrow, you'd wear a Rolex"）。 - **联合国演讲篇**：“如果你明天要在这里发表演讲，你会戴劳力士”（"If you were speaking here tomorrow, you'd wear a Rolex"）。 - **探险与挑战篇**：文案延展至“如果你明天要攀登绝壁”、“如果你明天要潜入深海”、“如果你明天要去封堵油井”，甚至有深入活火山内部的探险者。 这一波广告彻底将劳力士带入了《广告狂人》（Mad Men）时代的黄金期，也成为劳力士在高端市场全面挑战并最终超越老牌劲敌欧米茄（Omega）的关键一役。欧米茄原本是瑞士大牌手表的标准门面，在布尔战争（Boer War）时期就被英国军官广泛佩戴，拥有极其深厚的历史积淀；但劳力士凭借现代生活方式营销，重新定义了“顶级成功人士应该佩戴什么手表”。 --- ### [02:43:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9825s) 迪通拿的奢侈品蜕变与“愿望清单”神话 20 世纪 80 年代意大利收藏家的追捧与保罗·纽曼神话的合流，标志着劳力士正式迈入现代奢侈品领域。迪通拿由此成为劳力士产品线中最具炒作属性、溢价最高的图腾，并在随后的几十年里始终保持着这种神性。 即使在 2010 年左右，普通消费者走进劳力士官方授权经销商（Rolex Authorized Dealer / Retailer）的门店，柜台里的大多数表款都是现货：潜航者（Submariner）、探险家（Explorer）、格林尼治型（GMT-Master）乃至日志型（Datejust）都可以直接买走。唯独精钢迪通拿例外——店员永远只会礼貌地告诉你：“这块表，等我们有货再联系您。” 如今整个劳力士市场早已陷入普遍排队等待的疯狂状态，任何热门款都要先登记在“等候名单”（Waitlist）上，等上数月甚至数年才有机会“接到专柜电话”（Get the call）。但表友圈中对迪通拿有着更夸张的定义：其他表款如果排上了等候名单，只要时间足够长，轮次终究会到；而迪通拿根本不能叫等候名单（Waitlist），它本质上只是一份“愿望清单”（Wishlist）——能否拿到，完全取决于当地经销商的配额策略和你的客户等级。 --- ### [02:45:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=9942s) 两种视角的交汇：深入品牌历史与看清钟表业大崩塌 随着话题推进到钟表业的现代演变，Ben 和 David 调侃起两人在准备本期播客时的“分工偏好”。两人对“做一期劳力士节目”的任务有着完全不同的理解： - **David 的路线（深度内省）**：极度深挖劳力士品牌自身的发展脉络、劳力士与比尔机芯厂埃格勒（Aegler）的复杂股权与合作关系，以及每一个经典表款的诞生演变细节。 - **Ben 的路线（全景产业视角）**：去彻底搞清整个瑞士钟表工业在 20 世纪 70 和 80 年代经历的毁灭性打击——全行业在石英危机中轰然崩塌、随后又从零彻底重建的宏大史诗，以此来确立劳力士在整个钟表历史长河中的坐标。 两人将这种分工笑称为年轻一代的“支线任务”（Side quest）。这也为接下来的内容做好了铺垫：劳力士是如何在整个瑞士制表业经历灭顶之灾的平行宇宙中逆势崛起，最终建立起统治级地位的。 ### [02:46:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=10004s) 瑞士钟表业的黄金鼎盛期与分散式供应链 进入探讨“石英危机”（Quartz Crisis）之前，节目首先向两位行业泰斗致谢：一位是钟表文化权威媒体 Hodinkee 的创始人兼 CEO 本·克莱默（Ben Clymer），本期节目深入研读了该平台数十篇专业文章并与他多次长谈；另一位是过去四十年里见证行业风云变幻的殿堂级资深记者、原《WatchTime》主编兼 Hodinkee 执行编辑乔·汤普森（Joe Thompson）。汤普森不仅是极少数能够采访到劳力士在任 CEO 的媒体人，更是当年亲历石英危机，穿梭于日内瓦、中国台湾和日本现场报道整个颠覆过程的历史见证者。 20 世纪 70 年代初，瑞士钟表业正处于无可匹敌的绝对巅峰。回溯到二战刚结束的 1945 年，全球腕表年产量约为 2150 万枚，而瑞士一国就独占 1900 万枚，市场份额高达惊人的 85%。这一产业格局与如今中国台湾的台积电（TSMC）极为相似：制造机械腕表是一项门槛极高、高度专业的精密技艺。然而，隐藏在这一统治地位背后的是极度分散的生产模式——这 1900 万枚腕表由多达 2500 家独立企业共同生产，其中 90% 的企业员工人数不足 50 人。这就像把整个瑞士变成了一个高度协同的“新竹科学园区”，没有纵向一体化整合，机芯、指针、表壳由不同的手工作坊各自打造，并在全球劳动力成本最高的地区之一（日内瓦及周边）依靠熟练工匠手工组装。到了 1973 年，瑞士钟表产量更是创下了近 9000 万枚的历史顶峰。 - **1945 年瑞士市场份额**：全球 2150 万枚腕表中占 1900 万枚（约 85%）。 - **生产组织结构**：由 2500 家小型企业高度分工协作完成，其中 90% 的作坊规模小于 50 人。 - **1973 年产量巅峰**：年产接近 9000 万枚手工与半手工机械表。 --- ### [02:49:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=10158s) 音叉表的过渡弯路与石英技术的早期起源 机械表的垄断并非没有遭遇过挑战，但在石英技术真正降临之前，出现过一个最终证明只是“弯路”的半步过渡技术——音叉表（Tuning Fork Watch）。整个瑞士制表业向来以“走时精度”作为衡量腕表品质的终极标准，而当宝路华（Bulova）推出搭载微型音叉振动计时的 Accutron 腕表时，传统机械表的精度瞬间被超越。然而，用克莱顿·克里斯坦森（Clayton Christensen）的颠覆式创新理论来看，音叉表只是一项“延续性创新”（Sustaining Innovation）。它虽然提高了精度，但机芯内部依然包含数百个精密零部件，仍旧极度依赖老道工匠的精湛手艺，生产难度并没有下降，因此并没有给新入局者留出以颠覆性成本结构重塑行业的机会。 真正的革命力量源于石英（Quartz）。大众普遍认为石英表是日本精工（Seiko）发起的一场突袭，但石英计时技术的源头实际上要早得多。早在 1927 年，位于美国新泽西州的顶尖科技殿堂——贝尔实验室（Bell Labs）就研制出了人类第一台石英钟。只不过在那时，第一台石英钟体积庞大，整整占据了一整个房间，宛如计算机先驱 ENIAC 一般巨大，根本无法佩戴在手腕上。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 计时技术演进路径 accDescr: 展现从传统机械机芯到音叉延续性创新，再到石英颠覆性创新的演化流程 subgraph Mechanical["传统机械时代"] A["机械发条 + 摆轮擒纵系统<br>(高零件数 / 重度依赖匠人)"] end subgraph Sustaining["延续性改良"] B["音叉表 (如 Bulova Accutron)<br>(精度提升，但仍需手工装配数百零件)"] end subgraph Disruptive["颠覆性科技跨越"] C["贝尔实验室 (1927)<br>房间级石英钟原型"] D["集成电路 (IC) + 晶体管微型化<br>(1960年代)"] E["石英腕表革命<br>(极低组装门槛 / 规模效应与经营杠杆)"] end A --> B A -.->|颠覆路径| C C --> D D --> E ``` --- ### [02:52:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=10346s) 石英工作原理、集成电路与精工 Astron 的降维打击 石英表的运作逻辑彻底颠覆了发条与擒纵轮的物理机制：它由电池供电，利用巴黎早在 1880 年就发现的“压电效应”（Piezoelectric Effect），对特定形状切割的石英晶体通电，使其产生极其稳定且高达 32,768 Hz 的高频振动。然而，要将这 32,768 次振动计数并分频为每秒 1 次（1 Hz）以驱动秒针跳动或数字跳字，必须依赖“集成电路”（IC）与晶体管。这就是为什么石英钟自 20 年代诞生后，必须等待半导体工业的成熟与微型化，直到 60 年代末才得以微型化为腕表。与依赖学徒制和百年工艺的手工作坊不同，石英表的底层完全是一场半导体科技与电子工程的革命。 其实瑞士人并非毫无察觉。正如柯达在其实验室中亲手发明了数码相机一样，瑞士电子制表中心（CEH）早在精工 Astron 问世两年前的 1967 年，就在实验室里造出了精度比机械表高出一倍的石英天文台表。然而由于既得利益和行业安逸，瑞士人缺乏将其推向市场的商业动力，选择把技术雪藏在实验室中。 1969 年圣诞节，精工正式发布了历史上第一款石英腕表——Seiko Quartz-Astron 35SQ。最初它的售价贵得离谱，足以买下一辆丰田卡罗拉汽车，且每天仍有最多 5 秒的误差。然而，半导体技术的本质决定了它遵循陡峭的学习曲线（Learning Curve）与成本下降轨道，与传统手工艺的成本结构截然不同： - **极简零件与自动化装配**：所需零部件大幅减少，无需深厚的手工调校经验，可以通过前期重金投入自动化设备进行流水线生产。 - **巨大的规模经济与经营杠杆**：边际变动成本和人工成本极低，产量越大单价越便宜。 - **价格断崖式下跌**：石英表在几年内价格暴跌了近 1000 倍，从汽车级的高价迅速跌成普通消费品。 --- ### [02:55:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=10553s) “石英革命”还是“石英危机”：机械表的功用终结与重生伏笔 在日本被誉为推动钟表普及的“石英革命”（Quartz Revolution），在瑞士则被称为将整个国家产业推向崩溃边缘的“石英危机”（Quartz Crisis）。到 1970 年代末，石英表的售价已经远低于传统机械表，而在计时精度上却全面碾压机械表。 到了 1979 年，机械腕表在绝大多数现实生活场景中已经在功能上彻底过时（Functionally Obsolete）。除了极少数特殊群体——例如需要防止电池在高低温失效或没电的宇航员、飞行员与野外探险家——普通大众在实用层面上已经没有任何理由再去买一块机械表。甚至连象征最高精准度殿堂的奥林匹克运动会官方计时，也全盘转向了欧米茄（Omega）等品牌提供的石英电子计时设备。 然而这并不是机械表的终局。在接下来的 50 年里，机械表完成了一场匪夷所思的涅槃重生：从一件廉价退场的功能性计时工具，华丽蜕变为更加繁荣、销售额远胜往昔的顶级奢侈品神话。 ### [02:57:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=10624s) 石英危机爆发：LED 的弯路与半导体巨头的蜂拥 在石英技术革新的初期，行业经历了几轮剧烈的迭代。美国企业最先尝试利用发光二极管（LED）技术来制造石英表，代表作是汉米尔顿（Hamilton）在 1972 年推出的 Pulsar。这些手表刚面世时看起来极具未来感且酷炫，但长远来看却是一次彻底的失败——由于 LED 极其耗电，屏幕无法常亮，用户必须用另一只手按下按钮点亮屏幕才能读取时间，相当于看个时间需要两只手配合。 随后在 1974 年，大批 Acquired 听众耳熟能详的美国半导体巨头蜂拥入局：国家半导体（National Semiconductor）、仙童半导体（Fairchild Semiconductor）和德州仪器（Texas Instruments）率先下场，紧接着康懋达（Commodore）、英特尔（Intel）、惠普（HP）甚至休斯飞机（Hughes Aircraft）等数十家公司也卷入这场踩踏式浪潮。这些公司擅长制造集成电路（IC），便理所当然地认为只要掌控了手表的内部核心元件，就能顺手做好消费级产品。然而，作为传统的 B2B 企业，他们既不懂如何建立消费品牌，更未预料到这个市场会迅速大宗商品化（commoditized）。没有任何行业壁垒的结果，就是所有利润在转瞬间被套利殆尽，LED 手表很快退出了历史舞台。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 石英表早期的技术与市场竞争演进 accDescr: 展示了从美国半导体厂商主导的LED手表的失败，演进到日本主导的指针式石英表和LCD数字表的过程。 subgraph Phase1["第一阶段：LED 手表的兴衰（美国主导）"] A["1972 Hamilton Pulsar<br/>（LED 需按键点亮）"] --> B["B2B 半导体巨头涌入<br/>（Intel、Fairchild、TI、HP）"] B --> C["缺乏品牌力 + 零壁垒内卷<br/>（LED 路线彻底失败）"] end subgraph Phase2["第二阶段：真正赢家崛起（日本与亚洲制造）"] D["指针式石英表<br/>（1969 精工 Seiko Astron）"] E["常显数字 LCD 手表<br/>（精工、西铁城、卡西欧）"] F["低成本制造重镇崛起<br/>（中国香港、台湾、韩国、中国大陆）"] D --> F E --> F end C -.-> Phase2 ``` - **LED 手表的致命缺陷**：功耗过高无法常显，读取时间必须动用双手（一只手佩戴、另一只手按按钮）。 - **跨界造表失败的科技巨头**：National Semiconductor、Fairchild、TI、Intel、HP、Commodore、Hughes Aircraft 等，均因缺乏 B2C 品牌能力与产品严重商品化而迅速折戟。 - **两套真正的制胜技术方案**： 1. 带有传统表盘指针的石英机芯（以 1969 年日本精工推出的 Seiko Astron 为先驱）。 2. 采用液晶显示屏（LCD）的数字石英表：屏幕始终保持常显，且同样依托超高精度的石英机芯运作。 --- ### [02:58:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=10725s) 瑞士制表业的至暗时刻：灭顶之灾降临 当日本的精工（Seiko）、西铁城（Citizen）以及后来的卡西欧（Casio）成功掌控石英表核心技术后，低成本制造业基地也迅速转移并巩固——中国香港联合中国台湾、韩国以及中国大陆，一举成为全球廉价手表制造的庞大引擎。从 1969 年 Seiko Astron 面世，到 1975 年瑞士人惊呼“大难临头”，再到短短四年后石英技术彻底通吃市场，整个过程极其迅猛。到 1980 年，仅中国香港一年就出口了 1.26 亿只手表，其中一半为数字表；而瑞士制表业在巅峰时期全年的产量也不过 9000 万只。 1981 年，日本的手表出口量正式超越瑞士。不同于美国那些迟钝的 B2B 芯片公司，精工等日本企业极具品牌建设、广告营销和叙事能力。仅仅四年后的 1985 年，日本手表的出口量已经是瑞士的三倍以上。对瑞士而言，这不亚于一场彻底的“灭顶之灾”：瑞士在全球钟表市场的份额从 1945 年二战结束时的 85% 绝对统治地位，一路雪崩至 1980 年的 15%；表企数量也从 1960 年的 2000 家骤降至 1980 年的不足 500 家。如果仅以“掌握精准时间”这一传统功能诉求来看，机械表的存在价值瞬间归零。 - **香港制造的体量碾压**：1980 年中国香港手表年出口量达到 1.26 亿只，远超瑞士巅峰期的 9000 万只。 - **日瑞攻守逆转**：1981 年日本手表出口量超过瑞士；到 1985 年，日本的出口体量已攀升至瑞士的 3 倍。 - **石英渗透率的急剧拉升**：石英表在瑞士整体出货量中的占比，从 1975 年的区区 3% 飙升至 1979 年的 31%。 - **瑞士表企倒闭潮**：20 年间瑞士表企由 2000 余家缩减至不足 500 家，四分之三的企业在此次危机中灰飞烟灭。 --- ### [03:00:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=10851s) 从计时工具到拍卖行新贵：劳力士的绝境生机与“保罗·纽曼效应” 瑞士制表业被逼入墙角的同时，催生了后来整合各家濒死小品牌的斯沃琪集团（Swatch Group），但劳力士的处境全然不同。首先，劳力士是一家股权完全归属于私人慈善基金会的独立公司，没有外部股东带来的短期业绩压力；其次，劳力士长期以来拒绝加入瑞士本土的卡特尔同盟，不必听命于所谓的“国家统一战略”，因而可以独立自主地灵活应对。 更为关键的是市场的剧烈分化。虽然作为“日常看时间工具”的大众市场完全被石英表接管，但在昔日小众的拍卖行与藏家圈子里，一个全新的庞大需求悄然崛起——人们开始将机械表视作复杂的机械艺术、手工艺杰作与极度稀缺的藏品。正是在这一灰暗的历史背景下，“保罗·纽曼迪通拿”（Paul Newman Daytona）由意大利收藏圈点燃的狂热，成为了劳力士历史上“最不可思议的幸运事件”。机械表并非传统意义上的“东山再起”，而是被这群狂热爱好者与高端拍卖市场赋予了截然不同的全新生命周期，成为财富、社会地位与成功生活的终极象征符号。 - **劳力士的体制抗风险优势**：无公开上市股东、受慈善基金会控制、未加入瑞士制表卡特尔同盟，使其在应对海啸时拥有绝对的战略自主权。 - **机械表的本质蜕变**：从“日常对时工具”彻底演变为“强调复杂工艺、机械美学与极致稀缺性的奢侈品”。 - **意大利与保罗·纽曼热潮的节点意义**：恰恰发生在机械表被石英技术击垮的同一定格时刻，为劳力士切入全新的藏家和高净值人群市场打开了大门。 --- ### [03:02:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=10954s) 生活方式 vs 真正奢侈品：为什么 Fossil 与 Swatch 会被智能手表面试淘汰？ 本节展开了一场极其精妙的商业模式辨析：仅仅做成“生活方式品牌”（Lifestyle Brand）并不足以抵御技术颠覆，只有贯彻真正的“顶级奢侈品策略”（Luxury Strategy）才能立于不败之地。以精工、西铁城甚至美国化石（Fossil）为例，这些品牌本质上是生活方式与时尚配饰品牌——比如石英技术普及后催生出的 25 美元廉价时尚表，让普通人可以同时拥有五六块表来搭配不同衣服；甚至连“Swatch”名字的真正来源也是“Second Watch”（第二块表），其初衷就是走廉价且风格多样的时尚策略。但只要新的消费电子产品（如智能手表 Apple Watch）席卷而来，所有的纯生活方式品牌都会被无情抹平。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 生活方式品牌与顶级奢侈品策略的抗风险对比 accDescr: 比较了生活方式品牌与顶级奢侈品策略在面对技术颠覆时的不同表现。 subgraph Lifestyle["生活方式/时尚配饰策略<br/>（如 Fossil、早期 Swatch）"] L1["功能与时尚表达绑定"] --> L2["迎合市场降价/放量"] L2 --> L3["面临硬核科技替代<br/>（如智能表）时防御溃败"] end subgraph Luxury["顶级奢侈品策略<br/>（劳力士 Rolex）"] R1["严格管控二级市场与供给"] --> R2["垂直整合产业链控制品质"] R2 --> R3["设立等候名单 / 主动停产爆款"] R3 --> R4["价格脱离供需关系<br/>绝对穿越技术迭代周期"] end ``` 相比之下，劳力士实施的是全维度的奢侈品策略： 1. **掌控二级市场与供给节奏**：当保罗·纽曼热潮席卷市场时，他们不仅没有顺应需求加大产量，反而主动从市场上撤下该表款。 2. **拒绝随波逐流的价格机制**：从不因短期需求波动去降价或盲目扩产。 3. **极度苛刻的垂直整合**：不惜一切代价掌控全产业链以确保产品一致性，建立严苛的配额与候补名单机制（Waitlists）。 纯粹的生活方式公司绝不敢停产自己最畅销的产品，更无法在颠覆性技术面前建立稳固防线；只有真正的奢侈品体系，才能彻底脱离技术替代的生存威胁。 --- ### [03:05:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=11111s) 赞助商插播：网络安全独角兽 Huntress 登场 节目进入中场，主播介绍了 Acquired 的新赞助商——当下成长极快、口碑绝佳的网络安全服务商 Huntress。如今，初级黑客获取被入侵企业凭证和数据的门槛变得极低，使得中小企业面临的网络犯罪活动激增。Huntress 提供了革命性的全托管网络安全平台（Managed Security Platform），不仅覆盖端点检测与响应（EDR）、身份威胁检测与响应（ITDR）、安全意识培训，还提供革命性的安全信息与事件管理（SIEM）产品。 Huntress 核心特色在于其由顶级安全专家团队组成的 24/7 全天候安全运营中心（SOC），通过真人“网络猎手”去抓取仅靠纯软件容易漏掉的深度威胁。为了展现品牌对极致速度与精度的追求，Huntress 上个月甚至直接赞助了一辆赛车，参加了标志性的“劳力士迪通拿 24 小时耐力赛”（Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona），与本期节目的主题完美契合。目前，Huntress 正将以往只有巨头企业才能负担得起的安全技术下放普及，服务了超过 125,000 家企业（团队规模跨越 50 至 5000 人），并连续十次在 G2 评选的端点检测与响应榜单中被评为行业领导者。 ### [03:07:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=11225s) 石英危机背后的认知鸿沟：不是产品之争，而是定位重塑 在梳理劳力士商业史的过程中，一个直到研究尾声才彻底看清的谜团浮出水面：劳力士当年究竟是如何应对石英危机（Quartz Crisis）的？现存的大量钟表历史文献在叙事上往往存在割裂——人们津津乐道于石英危机爆发、斯沃琪集团（Swatch Group）诞生挽救瑞士钟表业废墟，另一边则单独叙述劳力士数十年如一日如何打造生活方式品牌、赞助赛车运动以及投放经典广告；然而，这两条主线很少被串联起来。作为当时身处瑞士风暴核心的企业，劳力士绝非旁观者，如今他们年营收突破百亿美元，单一家品牌就占据了整个瑞士钟表行业约 30% 的收入。 这一转变暗含了极为深刻的商业洞察：**用产品形态来定义市场是错误的，必须用“待完成任务”（Jobs-to-be-Done）来定义市场**。对瑞士制表业而言，“戴在手腕上看时间”的大众工具市场已经被石英技术彻底颠覆并被外部夺走；但一个关于高端身份认同、工艺与象征意义的新市场正悄然成型。石英表与机械表根本不是高低端之分，而是满足截然不同的两种客户需求。劳力士在这场风暴中保持冷静，通过细致观察同行的试错与探索，最终精准走出了一条通往现代奢侈品巅峰的道路。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 传统工具表向现代奢侈品转型逻辑 accDescr: 展示石英革命如何迫使瑞士机械表从时间工具转向奢侈与手工艺价值 subgraph MarketShift["市场的重新定义"] A["传统需求：腕间精准计时"] -->|石英技术颠覆| B["大众石英表 (日本/美国主导)\n固定成本/技术杠杆驱动"] C["新兴需求：身份象征与手工艺"] -->|机械表逆向定位| D["瑞士奢华机械表\n变动成本/稀缺手工艺驱动"] end subgraph RolexStrategy["劳力士的应对"] B -.->|"避开正面冲突"| E["劳力士观察同业经验"] D --> E E --> F["确立全球统一经典产品线\n坚守纯机械与高溢价地位"] end ``` --- ### [03:09:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=11368s) 欧米茄的溃败：第九局丢掉领先优势的行业教训 要理解劳力士的策略，必须先看三个相互交织但各不相同的故事，其中第一个正是劳力士当年的宿敌——欧米茄（Omega）。欧米茄就像在“第九局遭遇大崩盘”的领跑选手：在 1970 年代初，他们头顶阿波罗 11 号登月指定表的光环，坐拥奥运会官方计时器的身份，品牌地位如日中天。盖洛普（Gallup）在 1978 年的一项民调更是揭示了惊人反差：当时每 10 个美国人中只有 2 个人听说过劳力士（80% 表示没听过）；而不到二十年后的 1998 年，这一数据完全逆转，劳力士的知名度飙升至 80%。 直至 1977 年石英危机肆虐时，欧米茄仍是仅次于精工（Seiko）和天美时（Timex）的全球第三大钟表品牌，本应是瑞士抗衡风暴的最强旗舰。然而，欧米茄的应对举措堪称灾难性的恐慌反应： 1. **急功近利转向石英技术**：把整套生产体系向石英倾斜，却忽视了石英表属于需要巨大固定成本摊薄、高度依赖电子工业技术杠杆的产业，而瑞士机械制造本质上依赖手工艺变动成本，两者的文化、人员结构与成本模型完全错配； 2. **产品线疯狂膨胀与品牌稀释**：病急乱投医般推出海量新表款并横跨极宽的价格带，甚至对外授权品牌，令原本尊贵的品牌价值严重稀释； 3. **缺乏全球统一标准化产品**：欧米茄当时普遍采用向各地代理机构出口机芯、由当地自行设计外壳的模式，无法形成全球辨识度极高的单一标志性产品。 反观劳力士，此时已经完成了核心体系的布局：只出口完整整表，聚焦并坚持潜航者（Submariner）等六七款核心经典款，构建全球统一的产品形象。这恰如保时捷 911 的哲学——一旦确立了完美形态，只需要每隔七八年进行克制的微调升级，让孙辈能买到与祖辈如出一辙的经典款。 - 1978 年美国市场调查：仅 20% 的受访者知晓劳力士，80% 闻所未闻。 - 1998 年同项调查：劳力士认知度达到 80%，完成跨越式逆袭。 - 欧米茄当时虽有先发推出潜水表和军警机构合作的历史厚度，却在慌乱转型中陷入破产重组的泥潭，后来只能斥巨资赞助《007》电影挽救形象；而财务稳健、现金储备雄厚的劳力士得以在场边静观其变。 --- ### [03:14:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=11668s) 宝珀与比弗的“逆向柔术”：重定义奢华机械表的全新剧本 第二个关键篇章来自一位离开欧米茄的高管——让-克劳德·比弗（Jean-Claude Biver）。因不满欧米茄内部的保守与怯懦，比弗愤而辞职。1983 年，几乎整个瑞士表业都在苦苦思索如何将臃肿的传统工场转型为科技企业，比弗却反其道而行之，以约合如今 1.6 万美元的极低代价，收购了自 1950 年代后沉寂已久的古老品牌宝珀（Blancpain）。 比弗的洞察与后来的伯纳德·阿诺特（Bernard Arnault）收购陷入困境的奢侈品牌如出一辙：不再把表当作大众计时工具，而是复兴为纯手工打造、极其昂贵、产量稀少的纯机械奢华艺术品。他挥毫写下了钟表史上最具标志性的广告标语： > “自 1735 年以来，宝珀从未有过石英表，将来也绝不会有。” > （*Since 1735, there has never been a quartz Blancpain watch and there never will be.*） 这句广告词的绝妙之处在于，当时石英表才问世十余年，他却搬出两百多年前的 1735 年作为背书。它向全世界传达了鲜明的阶级区隔：石英表不过是流水线机器生产的量产计算器，而宝珀贩卖的是香槟与鱼子酱般的传统匠艺。 行业资深评论家乔·汤普森（Joe Thompson）精准地将此形容为一场“商业柔术”（feat of jujitsu）——把机械表原有的所有科技劣势（走时不精准、劳动密集、制造成本高昂、技术陈旧）直接逆转为奢华定位的核心卖点（四百年手工艺传承、稀缺手工大师雕琢、可传世的高级杰作）。比弗在十年后以 6000 万瑞士法郎的高价出售宝珀，而静坐观战的劳力士由此清晰看到了现代机械表业重生的底牌与破局之道。 ### [03:16:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=11804s) 拍卖行与机械表的文艺复兴：百达翡丽 Calibre 89 机械表的真正“文艺复兴”首先是从拍卖行引爆的。拍卖行的本质是为稀缺物品定价；在过去很长一段时间里，这意味着带有岁月沉淀的古董表。但到了 20 世纪 70 年代末至 80 年代，随着石英风暴的肆虐，大量瑞士表厂相继倒闭，整个机械表产业几乎要消亡，甚至连“新出厂的机械表”本身也开始变得极度罕见。在这样的背景下，百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）成为了拍卖行浪潮的标杆。 百达翡丽在 1979 年做出了一个决定：为了迎接 1989 年品牌创立 150 周年，他们要在十年内打造出人类历史上最复杂的钟表。这就是著名的 Calibre 89 怀表。这枚表根本无法戴在手腕上，它重达数磅，需要用双手捧着，内部拥有多达 33 种复杂功能，甚至在制造时必须借助早期计算机辅助设计（CAD）。Calibre 89 最终在拍卖行以超过 300 万美元的创纪录天价成交，不仅震撼了钟表界，甚至成了《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live）嘲讽“究竟是谁会花 300 万美元买一块表”的喜剧小品素材。 这枚终极复杂怀表的巨大成功，在整个行业掀起了一股疯狂追求“大复杂功能”（Grand Complications）的竞赛狂潮，各家品牌纷纷跟风堆砌复杂功能。然而劳力士（Rolex）对这种浮夸的军备竞赛完全不为所动。劳力士一贯做自己的事情：他们不做最花哨、最具艺术感的饰品，而是专注于打造工程设计最顶尖、最可靠实用的腕表——就像保时捷 911 一样，今天的 911 依然是 30 年前的 911，只是工程结构变得更加精湛。 拍卖行市场在 1977 年到 1985 年间几乎是机械表世界唯一的亮点，它重新确立了机械工艺的稀缺性价值，并反哺了新表市场。差不多就在 1985 年，意大利市场对劳力士“保罗·纽曼迪通拿”（Paul Newman Daytona）的狂热收藏潮爆发，拍卖市场的烈火顺理成章地引燃了现代机械表消费市场的全面复苏。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 机械表文艺复兴的传导路径 accDescr: 展示从石英风暴导致机械表稀缺，到拍卖行催化高价，最终引爆现代机械表奢侈品市场的过程。 subgraph Scarcity ["石英风暴背景"] A["石英风暴席卷\n机械表厂大批倒闭"] --> B["机械表变成极为罕见的物件"] end subgraph AuctionBreakthrough ["拍卖行引爆关注"] B --> C["百达翡丽 Calibre 89 问世\n(拍卖价超 300 万美元)"] C --> D["拍卖行点燃对稀缺机械工艺的狂热"] end subgraph MarketRenaissance ["市场全面复苏"] D --> E["意大利收藏家狂炒保罗·纽曼迪通拿"] E --> F["二手/古董拍卖热潮全面反哺新表市场"] end ``` --- ### [03:20:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=12017s) 劳力士的石英探索与安德烈·海尼格的远见 在此期间，劳力士并没有盲目固执，而是像其他品牌一样非常谨慎地探索过石英技术。他们投入了巨额研发资金，推出了外形硬朗、采用一体式表带设计的蚝式石英表（Oysterquartz）。这款表在结构上充满了劳力士式的“过度工程”，极具辨识度，但劳力士并未将其大面积产品化。他们很快意识到：石英表虽然走时更准，但它无法承载劳力士想要讲述的关于复杂机械工艺、生活方式与品牌浪漫情怀的故事。 在吕西安·特吕布（Lucien Trueb）所著的《给腕表通电》（*Electrifying the Wristwatch*）一书中，生动记录了劳力士掌舵人安德烈·海尼格（André Heiniger）的超前洞察： > 海尼格是一位真正的远见者。他的观点是：原本极其昂贵的石英技术很快就会变得平庸廉价，正如之前在晶体管收音机、电视机和袖珍计算器上发生的事情一样；而顶级机械机芯由于零部件制造和装配需要大量高素质的熟练劳动力，将永远保持昂贵与排他性。至于机械装置走时精度存在天然局限这一无法回避的事实，只需在表盘上印上“超级天文台官方认证”（Superlative Chronometer Officially Certified）即可轻松化解。富人根本不需要一个用来看时间的仪器，他们需要的是戴在手腕上一件美丽而稀有的尊贵物件。 这种洞察让腕表完成了一个历史轮回：它回到了最初作为“女士珠宝手镯”诞生的本质——佩戴者在意的从来不是分秒不差的精准，而是它本身的美感以及它能向外界传递关于自身身份的社会信号。 - 资深钟表记者乔·汤普森（Joe Thompson）回忆称：70 年代末所有行业记者和瑞士表厂都确信机械表必死无疑，劳力士逆势坚持机械表的举动在当时看来自带极高的魄力与赌性。 - 在意大利，除了保罗·纽曼迪通拿掀起的收藏热，年轻人之间还流行起了“空军飞行员夹克配不锈钢计时码表”的经典穿搭风格，使迪通拿彻底演变为一种文化图腾。 --- ### [03:23:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=12204s) 汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会的护城河与最终的胜利 劳力士之所以敢于采取如此保守却大胆的策略，核心在于其独特的企业防御机制：彻底的独立性、充裕的现金储备，以及背后坚不可摧的汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会（Hans Wilsdorf Foundation）。 1944 年汉斯·威尔斯多夫在第一任妻子去世后设立了该基金会，并将劳力士的全部所有权注入其中。与宜家（IKEA）那种跨国嵌套、错综复杂的基金会架构不同，威尔斯多夫基金会建立在瑞士极具隐私保护与法律稳定性的体系之下。尽管它履行大量慈善职责并在日内瓦本地慷慨捐款，但其最核心的章程宗旨是“确保劳力士公司的永续经营”。由于无需向外部公开市场的股东回报与季度利润负责，劳力士即使连续亏损三年，首席执行官也不会面临下台风险，这让他们能够从容地玩无限游戏。 在 1978 年欧米茄（Omega）在石英浪潮中慌不择路地尝试各种新概念时，劳力士做出的反应却是发布海使型（Sea-Dweller）4000 潜水表——继续把机械潜水深度做到 4000 米，以极致的工程定力坚持做原来的事情。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 劳力士的双轨对冲策略 accDescr: 展示劳力士在储备石英能力的同时，选择押注规模化机械奢华路线的策略。 subgraph RolexStrategy ["劳力士的对冲与抉择"] A["研发蚝式石英表 (Oysterquartz)\n保留底牌防范全面石英化"] B["将宝珀的高端机械策略规模化\n坚守核心机械表款"] end A -.->|底线保障 (低概率备选)| C["平庸但安全的生意"] B ==>|全力押注 (核心战略)| D["1989 年创纪录销量与利润\n登顶全球第一奢华腕表"] ``` 劳力士实际上为自己准备了完美的期权： - **安全底线**：手握顶级的品牌号召力与已研发成熟的蚝式石英技术，一旦机械表真的消亡，他们随时可以掉头做石英表； - **最高赔率**：如果能坚持下来，将宝珀（Blancpain）验证过的“手工艺机械奢华”策略以庞大规模推向全球，劳力士就能建立起前所未有的商业帝国。 到了 1989 年，事实证明这一场豪赌大获全胜。劳力士与百达翡丽在这一年双双迎来了创纪录的销售额与空前的市场狂热。百达翡丽当年年产量仅约 9000 块，转型做顶级手工艺相对容易；而劳力士当时年产量已高达数十万块。能够以如此巨大的工业体量成功转型并统治奢侈品机械表市场，成就了商业史上最令人叹为观止的决策之一。 ### [03:26:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=12416s) 辩论：劳力士究竟算不算“奢侈品公司”？ 节目开篇爆发了一场关于劳力士定位的精彩辩论。一种观点认为，劳力士本质上根本不是一家“奢侈品公司”，甚至算不上传统意义上的手工工艺品（craft product）。它是一款制作极其精良、工程设计卓越、品牌塑造惊人的“工业级产品”。在传统钟表界，百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）或爱彼（Audemars Piguet）等顶级制表品牌的价格往往是劳力士的 8 倍、10 倍乃至 30 倍，而产量极为稀少。劳力士代表的是工业化、高度一致、极其可靠的规模化产品，每年产量高达 110 万至 120 万只，它既不是前卫艺术，也不靠极其复杂的超卓复杂功能或瞬息万变的时尚潮流立足。 反方观点则指出，这取决于对“奢侈品”的定义。如果将奢侈品定义为“价格最昂贵、产量最低的顶级尖端商品”，那么劳力士确实不是百达翡丽。然而，如果将奢侈品公司定义为“能够掌控并管理整个市场，而非被动参与市场”，劳力士绝对是一家非凡的奢侈品公司——就像爱马仕（Hermès）一样，劳力士完全掌控着自己的供需话语权。劳力士完全可以以高得多的价格销售产品，但出于百年维度的长期利益考量，他们选择不这样做。根据 LVMH 系列节目中探讨的标准，奢侈品与高端消费品的核心区别在于：用户购买劳力士并非单纯为了看时间的功能，而是为了腕表所投射出的自我身份认同。劳力士在商业模式上更像是腕表界的爱马仕铂金包（Birkin Bag）：官方售价在 1.2 万至 1.5 万美元之间，虽然绝对价格不菲，但相比于二级市场的溢价能力或劳力士本可收取的暴利，官方公价被极其克制地锁定在一个合理的范围内。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士的双重商业属性模型 accDescr: 展现劳力士在工业制造与市场策略上的两个维度 subgraph PROD["生产制造维度（工业级标准）"] P1["年产约 110-120 万只"] --> P2["自研设备与极端严苛测试"] P2 --> P3["极致稳定、精准与高可靠性"] end subgraph LUX["商业与品牌维度（爱马仕式管理）"] L1["克制官方公价（管理市场而非顺从市场）"] --> L2["不卖功能，售卖身份象征与声誉"] L2 --> L3["超高二级市场溢价与全球统一水准"] end PROD --> OUT["顶级工业化规模制造的超级奢侈品体系"] LUX --> OUT ``` --- ### [03:29:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=12562s) 帕特里克·海尼格的铁腕整合：从27家供应商到四大超级基地 1992 年，老 CEO 安德烈·海尼格（André Heiniger）正式退休，其独生子帕特里克·海尼格（Patrick Heiniger）接任 CEO。帕特里克早在 1986 年保罗·纽曼（Paul Newman）迪通拿腕表狂潮初现时便加入公司担任商务总监。上任后，他掀起了劳力士历史上最重要的战略变革——全产业链的垂直整合（Vertical Integration）。其中最具里程碑意义的，是劳力士在 2004 年以传闻中约 10 亿瑞士法郎的价格，正式全资收购了长期为其生产机芯的 Aegler 公司，将核心机芯制造完全收归自有。 当时整个瑞士制表业面临一个致命痛点：像欧米茄（Omega）等品牌虽然机芯一致，但全球各地的表壳、零配件和成品由于依赖分散的第三方供应商，导致产品在不同市场之间存在严重的质量差异。然而，面向全球流动高净值客户的顶级品牌绝不能容忍“某些地区的版本质量更好”或“存在某种可爱的小瑕疵”。为了实现“让装进劳力士包装盒里的每一只潜航者（Submariner）都拥有绝对一致的品质”，帕特里克雷厉风行地展开供应链收紧： - 将全瑞士约 27 至 30 处零星分散的生产地点和零部件工厂彻底整合为 4 大自有的超级基地； - 收购表带制造厂，并建立劳力士自己的金属冶炼车间，在店内熔炼黄金、钢材以及专属合金； - 注册独家材料品牌，包括标志性的 904L 精钢（现称 Oystersteel，蚝式钢）、Rolesor（金钢双色金）以及 Everose（永恒玫瑰金）。 这一整合不仅为劳力士构筑了无法撼动的供应链壁垒，更缔造了品牌神话。2015 年左右，劳力士破例邀请了包括 Hodinkee 创始人 Ben Clymer 和钟表历史学者 James Dowling 在内的四位钟表博主探访工厂。他们目睹了震撼的一幕：劳力士甚至自行设计并制造机床工具，工厂里走廊的宽度特意设计为最大机器宽度的两倍，以便未来随时运进更大体量的设备；研发中心拥有不知疲倦的机械臂，能在几分钟内将表扣反复开合上千次以测试耐久度。不仅如此，劳力士还常常默默为腕表改进内部微小零部件，即使连产品型号（Reference Number）都未做更改也绝不大肆宣传，只为追求无可挑剔的工程极限。 - **核心收购案**：2004 年以约 10 亿瑞郎正式将 Aegler 纳为全资内生部门。 - **工厂整合度**：从瑞士全境 27-30 个分散供应商与厂区，集中为 4 个全产权的现代化超级基地。 - **专属材料矩阵**：自建冶炼厂，推出 Oystersteel、Everose、Rolesor 等专有合金及品牌注册商标。 --- ### [03:34:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=12856s) 2008年金融危机：逆势加码营销的奢侈品统治力 2008 年，帕特里克·海尼格因健康恶化英年早逝，劳力士经历了短暂的管理层交接：先是由原首席财务官布鲁诺·迈耶（Bruno Meyer）接掌，随后在 2011 年交棒给在劳力士打拼 40 年、从意大利市场脱颖而出的詹·里卡多·马里尼（Gian Ricardo Marini）。在过去整整 90 年的时间里，劳力士总共只有三位掌舵人，这种极其克制、长期专注做微小迭代更新的企业文化在商界绝无仅有；而后两任 CEO 的任期较短纯粹是因为临危受命时年纪已高，但他们骨子里全都是坚定的劳力士老兵。 这一老牌管理层在 2008 年全球金融海啸期间展现了无与伦比的战略定力。回忆起当时的华尔街，2007 年次贷危机前夕正值金融精英用巨额年终奖疯狂扫货瑞士名表的鼎盛时期，年轻分析师戴迪通拿上班还勉强不会遭人侧目；但危机爆发后，整个行业一夜入冬，极简与紧缩成为主调。几乎所有的瑞士名表品牌因现金流断裂而惊慌失措： - 众多表厂为保住营收，不仅在终端疯狂打折抛售库存，还直接将广告营销预算清零； - 唯独劳力士不仅分文不降、绝不停止对美国网球公开赛等重磅赛事的赞助，反而在美国市场以惊人的魄力大幅追加营销投入。 劳力士之所以能做出这种让全行业震惊的逆周期决策，根源在于其独特的私有慈善基金会治理结构。没有季度财报和外部公开股东的压力，劳力士不必在乎一年甚至五年的萧条，巨额的现金储备使得他们能以 10 年、20 年乃至半个世纪的视界做决策——在其他品牌断臂求生、自毁身价之时，劳力士通过加码品牌曝光彻底拉开了与追赶者的差距，将全球顶级腕表市场的定价权与心智份额牢牢锁死在自己手中。 ### [03:37:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=13024s) 美国钟表爱好者市场的觉醒与劳力士的逆势加码 在2000年代初，美国钟表爱好者（aficionado）市场几乎是一片荒漠。当时劳力士以及其他瑞士制表品牌如果要在美国举办活动来推广腕表，台下坐着的要么被业内人士戏称为“老顽固”（old fuddy-duddies），要么就是专门针对中国游客并全程用中文讲解的推广会。然而，到了2006年至2008年间，一股长期的时代浪潮开始悄然涌动——美国的钟表爱好者社群迅速崛起。正是在这个时期，本·克莱默（Ben Clymer）创立了著名的钟表媒体 Hodinkee，钟表博主和专业论坛如雨后春笋般涌现。 面对这一新兴趋势，劳力士选择在2008年大衰退期间及其后加倍下注。从后见之明来看，在金融风暴中心大肆投放广告、争夺新客群似乎是一次极具魄力的“豪赌”；但依托劳力士无可匹敌的资产负债表与独特地位，这反而是教科书般顺理成章的商业运作——当对手们紧缩战线时，整个市场空间正向劳力士敞开怀抱。 - **小众市场的萌芽**：2000年代初美国本土的机械表藏家圈子规模极小，直到2006至2008年前后才随着互联网专业媒体与社群的成熟真正迎来爆发。 - **大萧条期的逆向投资**：当整个奢侈品行业因金融危机陷入恐慌收缩时，劳力士坚持大规模营销投放，牢牢抓住了新一代腕表买家。 --- ### [03:38:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=13088s) 危机后的行业狂潮与劳力士的“美联储式”克制 在金融危机期间坚持推进只是劳力士决策中“容易的上一半”；真正困难的，是在随后的市场狂欢中保持定力。随着美联储推出零利率政策（ZIRP），全球钟表市场在2011至2013年迎来了报复性猛烈反弹，其泡沫与狂热程度甚至远超2007年的峰值。面对这种大起大落，众多瑞士奢侈腕表品牌陷入了剧烈的“过山车陷阱”：2008年之前为了追求稀缺感盲目推高定价，危机爆发后惊慌失措地降价并削减营销预算，而当市场复苏后又迫不及待地大幅提价以期捞取红利。 劳力士的做法截然相反：它不盲目跟风大幅涨价，而是严格控制供应，仅维持每年温和的小幅价格调控。这种每年渐进式的微调为二手市场奠定了坚实的价值托底机制，久而久之让消费者形成了一种坚定信仰——购买劳力士就像投资保本增值的金融产品，劳力士本身如同钟表界的“美联储”，为旗下资产的长期升值提供了隐形担保。正如《纽约时报》曾分析的那样，许多奢侈品在后疫情时代的狂热中过度加价，最终把自身挤出了常规消费市场；而劳力士与爱马仕（Hermès）一样，坚决不透支品牌，宁可让二级市场溢价飞涨，自身依然保持稳健航行。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士与竞品在经济周期中的定价策略对比 accDescr: 对比竞品在周期波动下的剧烈摇摆与劳力士在整个周期中的稳健定力 subgraph 竞品品牌的摇摆策略 A1["危机前盲目提价<br/>追逐短期暴利"] --> A2["金融危机恐慌<br/>降价甩货/削减营销"] A2 --> A3["量化宽松复苏<br/>报复性暴涨价格"] A3 --> A4["市场周期回调<br/>遭到定价反噬"] end subgraph 劳力士的定海神针策略 B1["危机中加大营销<br/>抢占心智份额"] --> B2["每年小幅温和微调<br/>确立价格托底"] B2 --> B3["严格控制一级供给<br/>由二级市场消化溢价"] B3 --> B4["市场调整期屹立不倒<br/>品牌信誉与价值升值"] end ``` --- ### [03:40:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=13212s) 等候名单的争议与单品类零售之惑 然而，这套严控供应的机制近年来也引发了严重反弹。市场上充斥着关于劳力士“正在得罪死忠粉”的批评：授权经销商（Authorized Dealers，简称 AD）门槛高高在上、等候名单（waitlist）长得荒谬、销售人员态度傲慢，这种“买不到”的挫败感让不少老客户深感不适。但究其本质，这种终端体验失控很大程度上源于劳力士独特的商业结构——历史上它从未掌控零售的“最后一公里”，客户体验全权交由独立珠宝商与代理网络负责，这与爱马仕、路易威登（Louis Vuitton）或香奈儿（Chanel）自营直营门店的精细化客户运营截然不同。 关于劳力士为何长期不建立全直营网络，两位主持人展开了激烈交锋： - **单品类 vs 全品类局限论**：有观点认为爱马仕之所以能支撑昂贵的全球直营专柜网络，是因为它拥有成衣、丝巾、香水、家居、皮具等全品类产品线；即便铂金包（Birkin）一包难求，进店的顾客至少能买条丝巾或家具离开。而劳力士是纯粹的单品类手表公司，只靠6到7个核心表款支撑专卖店成本极为沉重。 - **专营能力反驳论**：另一方则坚信，劳力士在全球拥有约1,500家授权经销网点，以其恐怖的品牌号召力与单价，哪怕全开成劳力士独立直营专卖店也绝对能轻易覆盖高昂租金，完全不需要靠其他杂项商品来“招揽客流”。正因直营的必要性与可行性日益凸显，才促成了2023年那桩震撼业界的并购案。 --- ### [03:42:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=13347s) 收购宝齐莱：从百年同盟到零售权力重构 2023年，劳力士斥巨资（传闻高达50亿美元左右）收购了全球最大的腕表珠宝零售商之一——宝齐莱（Bucherer）。两者的渊源已逾百年，宝齐莱不仅是劳力士最早期的核心销售伙伴之一，早年两者与机芯厂埃格勒（Aegler）形成的铁三角同盟，更帮助劳力士成功避开了当年瑞士钟表卡特尔组织的钳制。然而在当下，买下宝齐莱绝非仅仅出于历史情怀，而是劳力士重构零售掌控力的关键破局之举： - **解决直面客户的数据盲区**：在传统 AD 模式下，劳力士甚至无法直接获取买家的电子邮箱、真实姓名或地址，所有珍贵的用户数据全被经销商扣留。对于一家年营收百亿美元的超级跨国企业来说，对核心消费者的画像处于“失明”状态是不可思议的。 - **等候名单与客户体验的直接管辖**：借助自有零售旗舰网络，劳力士可以彻底遏制经销商倒卖配额、怠慢客户的乱象，亲手规范购表体验。 - **“硬通货”话语权与经销商体系**：在腕表零售行业，获得劳力士代理权等于拿到了“免死金牌”（made man），商家借此吸引大量客流并顺带销售欧米茄（Omega）、百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）或爱彼（Audemars Piguet）。普通第三方零售商在扣除批发成本后毛利率约为37%，而劳力士强势地将经销商毛利压缩至33%到34%左右（近期传言甚至进一步下调了1%）。 劳力士之所以过去几十年安心让经销商代劳，在于它能以极其精简的人员配置运营庞大帝国——全公司仅约16,000名员工，年销售额却破百亿美元，依靠高度自动化的生产与规模经济，几乎零成本享受到了严格管控的零售红利，而无须背负复杂的店面运营包袱。作为一家归属于汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会（Hans Wilsdorf Foundation）的非上市公司，劳力士不需要为季度毛利率疲于奔命，其收购宝齐莱并不是为了榨取每一个铜板的零售利润，而是为了品牌在未来数十年内无可动摇的战略独立与终端把控力。 ### [03:46:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=13618s) 劳力士克制的品类边界与不做单一自营店的考量 劳力士展现出令人震惊的战略定力：几十年如一日，始终严格坚守只做手表业务。设想一下，如果劳力士效仿其他顶级品牌转型为全品类多元化奢侈品帝国，推出劳力士夹克、太阳镜、香水甚至行李箱，商业空间将无比巨大。以劳力士标志性的 904L 钢材打造一款登机箱，足以让日默瓦（Rimowa）都相形见绌。然而，劳力士彻底抵制住了这些“白送钱”的诱惑。这种坚持单一腕表品类的克制，也从根本上解释了为什么他们过去长期拒绝直接进军零售终端。 如果劳力士去开设纯粹的单品牌直营旗舰店，其商业逻辑面临着严峻的体验错位。如今在巴黎或纽约的高端零售地段，品牌必须与 LVMH 这类巨头争夺寸土寸金的核心地段。尽管劳力士资金充裕、不惜工本甚至能直接买下整栋楼，但高端零售的核心在于进店消费者的体验——进店的客人渴望沉浸式体验并能提着战利品走出门。然而，在劳力士的专卖店里，台面上往往只陈列着六到八款供展示的样表，消费者走进店里却一件也买不走。这就会演变成一种极其荒谬的局面：犹如奢华版的 Bonobos（试衣陈列店），区别在于你根本不知道自己何时甚至能不能接到排队提表的电话。相反，像宝齐莱（Bucherer）这样的综合多品牌零售商，即使顾客当天提不到劳力士，也可以痛快地买走几只泰格豪雅（TAG Heuer）或沛纳海（Panerai）尽兴而归。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士开辟单品牌直营店与多品牌店对比 accDescr: 对比劳力士独立直营零售与宝齐莱这类多品牌渠道在客户购物体验和商业模式上的差异 subgraph Solo["劳力士单品牌直营店模式"] A["高昂租金争夺顶级地段\n(与 LVMH 贴身肉搏)"] --> B["店内仅有样表展示\n无法现场提货"] B --> C["奢华版陈列体验\n提表电话遥遥无期\n导致客户体验受挫"] end subgraph Multi["多品牌综合店 (如 Bucherer)"] D["劳力士作为核心引流吸铁石"] --> E["顾客即便排不到劳力士\n亦可转购其他品牌腕表"] E --> F["满足即时消费欲望\n兼顾多元腕表收藏需求"] end ``` --- ### [03:49:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=13746s) 收购宝齐莱（Bucherer）的真正动机与防守逻辑 劳力士在 2023 年收购欧洲老牌零售巨头宝齐莱（Bucherer）的交易引发了行业广泛猜想。主持人们深入剖析并排除了几种主流解释：这并非为了改善这部分手表的零售利润率，也不是为了增强对下游零售商的控制杠杆。事实上，劳力士面对授权经销商（AD）本就拥有绝对的话语权——他们随时可以要求经销商自掏腰包投入巨额资本重装店面，并在每年 12 月以是否续签代理协议相要挟；劳力士也完全不需要通过收购来整顿臭名昭著的等候名单（Waitlist），他们只需在续约合同中加入一条“全面收缴排队名额管理权，违者取消代理资质”的条款即可见效。 收购宝齐莱最核心、最根本的动机其实是纯粹的防御——**防止它落入他人之手**。宝齐莱与劳力士拥有近百年的深度合作历史，占劳力士总出货量的巨大份额，但家族第三代继承人约格·宝齐莱（Jörg Bucherer）年事已高且膝下无子，面临对外出售。劳力士是一家极度重视私密性的非上市公司，他们绝不能容忍任何竞争对手或上市公司接盘宝齐莱： - 如果一家上市公司买下宝齐莱，就必须在财报中披露详细销售数据，从而使劳力士最核心的销售机密暴露于公众视野。 - 像 LVMH 这样的奢侈品航母（旗下已有丝芙兰等零售巨头）势必对宝齐莱虎视眈眈。如果 LVMH 入主宝齐莱，劳力士将在零售前端被竞争对手直接掣肘。 - 尽管收购宝齐莱不得不附带接手其在 2018 年买下的美国老牌零售商蒂诺（Tourneau），但这笔交易彻底封死了外部资本窥探和渗透劳力士渠道命脉的可能。 --- ### [03:51:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=13891s) 从走进店里买潜航者，到反常识的“配货与排队” 回顾劳力士的销售历史，“等候名单”演变成行业常态实际上是非常晚近的事情。在大约 2015 年之前，除了极少数特殊款式（例如钢款迪通拿 Daytona）需要排队之外，消费者只要带着钱走进本地珠宝店，绝大多数劳力士——包括潜航者（Submariner 水鬼）系列——都是可以在柜台直接刷卡提走的。彼时的珠宝商面对愿意消费 7,000 到 20,000 美元的顾客，都会恭敬热情地引导至收银台。 然而过去几年间，零售终端演变成了一种极端反常的生态：消费者拿着上万美元进店，却被傲慢地拒绝，还要被迫接受各家经销商自立规则的暗箱考核。授权店往往通过隐秘的标准（看你消费记录有多深、在社交网络上有多少粉丝、是否是本地名流）来决定把每月的几只配额给谁。虽然奢侈品管理理论（如《奢侈品战略》中的反营销法则）强调“要凌驾于客户之上”、“制造购买阻碍”以及“绝不轻易响应激增的需求”，但劳力士此前缺乏应对这种全民饥饿营销的官方管理基础设施，导致渠道端的随意与混乱严重消耗了消费者的好感。 - **反营销法则第 5 条**：不要响应激增的需求（Do not respond to rising demand）。 - **反营销法则第 6 条**：主导并支配你的客户（Dominate the client）。 - **反营销法则第 7 条**：让客户的购买过程充满阻碍（Make it difficult for clients to buy）。 --- ### [03:53:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=14006s) 被动迈入奢华行列：历峰集团的推动与偶然的奢侈品 劳力士并非从一开始就立志成为高不可攀的奢侈品品牌。其创始人汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）当年的核心愿景非常质朴：“让每一只手腕上都戴上一枚劳力士手表（A Rolex watch on every wrist）”。劳力士骨子里更像是一个追求极致机械工程、年复一年把坚固度与可靠性提升一点点的生活方式/专业工具品牌。但在石英危机重创瑞士钟表业之后，“奢侈化”更像是大环境强加给劳力士的生存路径。 当时以历峰集团（Richemont）及旗下的卡地亚（Cartier）为首的高级制表势力，主导重塑了整个瑞士制表业的游戏规则。历峰集团选择在日内瓦另立山头打造高规格展会对抗巴塞尔钟表展（Baselworld），彻底告别了展厅里吃烤香肠的传统集市风格，转而引入香槟、鱼子酱与隆重的交表仪式，硬生生把机械表塑造成了富豪阶层的奢侈符号。劳力士并非这场奢华大戏的发起者，但作为行业内声誉最隆、体量最大的机械表王者，劳力士顺理成章地承接了这股浪潮，成为了一家“偶然成为顶级奢侈品的企业”。 --- ### [03:55:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=14101s) 坚决不盲目扩产：避免重演卡地亚式的惨痛崩盘 面对全球范围内令人疯狂的短缺，劳力士之所以坚决不为了满足市场需求而大幅扩大产能，根本原因并不是为了单纯维系奢侈品的“饥饿姿态”，而是为了捍卫企业长期生存的底层商业物理学（Business Physics）：**商业世界里最危险的事情，就是试图把规模收缩回曾经的峰值以下。** 商业扩张如同风险投资中的“降轮（Down Round）”：一旦在顺境时把年产能盲目上调 20%，当行业泡沫破裂、下行周期来临时，不仅巨大的固定运营成本难以削减，员工和市场也无法接受这种滑坡。许多钟表品牌在周期逆转时不得不通过打折、调低公价（MSRP）来清理库存，这会瞬间激怒并羞辱刚刚以全价购入的手表客户，对品牌价值造成不可逆的毁灭性打击。一个典型的行业警示是卡地亚在 2016 年因前期严重过量生产，最终不得不斥资数亿美元回购并亲自碾碎销毁手表库存。劳力士数十年如一日采取极其克制、每年仅微幅增产的步调，确保产能永远与真实需求线保持一段安全距离，从而让品牌在任何经济严冬面前都立于不败之地。 ### [03:56:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=14186s) 极度保守的产能扩张与等候名单（Waitlist）的真正逻辑 劳力士（Rolex）在扩张产能方面保守到了极点，只接受极为缓慢、温和的产量提升与渐进式的调整。当市场出现泡沫、涌入海量狂热的新拥趸时，这种极致保守的态度就如同一块“不可撼动的顽石迎面撞上了不可阻挡的力量”——劳力士绝不会为了迎合短期狂热而大幅盲目扩产。他们所做的最大举动，不过是开工兴建一座预计在 2027 年左右投产的新制造工厂；但即便该厂全面上线，带来的产能增幅预计也仅有 10% 到 15% 左右。 劳力士管理层目前显然陷入了一种两难抉择：一方面，他们不希望看到无数忠实顾客因买不到表而满腹怨言；另一方面，他们更不愿承担任何危及品牌未来百年基业的系统性风险。对于一家以超长期眼光思考的企业而言，突如其来的爆发式“新需求”本质上是一种巨大风险。在极力维护自身长期稳定性的同时，还要安抚那些被拒之门外、渴望建立长久关系而愤怒不已的高净值客户，这无疑是一场极其艰难的平衡术。 这也道出了腕表等候名单（Waitlist）最正向的底层逻辑：它本质上是一个筛选机制，用以确保最终买到腕表、成为品牌客户的人是真心热爱并认可品牌，而非只是追逐当下短暂风口、下个月就会转投他处的热钱投机客。 - **客群定位的差异**：百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）极其在乎取悦专业收藏家和死忠表迷；而劳力士则非常坦然地承认自身的商业属性——他们的核心客群（Bread and butter）是晋升的高管、医生、牙医、律师和金融从业者。他们绝不希望疏远这一拥有庞大总体物质财富的阶层。 - **保时捷 911 理论**：投资人 James Ding 提供了一个极为形象的洞察：典型的劳力士买家根本不会把劳力士和百达翡丽去横向比价，他们在内心对比的其实是：“我是该买这块劳力士，还是拿这笔钱去改装升级我的保时捷 911？” - **加班赶工的传闻**：尽管像精钢迪通拿（Steel Daytona）或彩虹圈等稀缺表款理应保持稀有，但潜航者（Submariner，水鬼）这类核心产品本应摆在橱柜中或至多等待两周。坊间有传闻称，在 2020 至 2022 年需求最为火爆的时期，劳力士甚至曾破例要求员工每周工作六天而非五天以全力赶工，这也从侧面反映出劳力士对产能供不应求绝非完全无动于衷。 --- ### [03:59:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=14349s) 帝舵（Tudor）之谜：打破奢侈品铁律的子品牌 关于劳力士公司一直存在一个让人百思不得其解的谜题——其旗下的兄弟品牌帝舵（Tudor）。两位主持人在台北采访张忠谋（Morris Chang）期间逛台北 101 购物中心时，就曾路过一家同时销售劳力士与帝舵的特约授权零售商（AD）。许多经销商如果想要拿劳力士的货配额，往往必须硬性搭售帝舵。 帝舵品牌名称源自英国都铎王朝（Tudor dynasty），名义上是汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会（Hans Wilsdorf Foundation）旗下的另一家独立公司，但本质上就是劳力士的子品牌。从经典奢侈品战略教科书来看，设立平价子品牌是严重稀释品牌价值的“大忌”。更令人困惑的是，帝舵的许多经典表款（如碧湾系列）在外观上几乎就是劳力士水鬼（Submariner）、格林尼治型（GMT-Master）或探险家型（Explorer）的孪生翻版。 - **创立背景与历史**：帝舵由劳力士创始人汉斯·威尔斯多夫于 1926 年创立，初衷是在保持卓越品质标准的同时，打造一个价格更亲民的品牌。早期帝舵直接使用劳力士原厂的表壳和表链，但内部搭载的是第三方供应商 ETA（现隶属于斯沃琪集团 Swatch Group）的基础机芯，而非劳力士从 Aegler 采购的高端定制机芯。 - **“泄洪阀”假说的破灭**：一种常见的假设认为，制约劳力士产能的核心瓶颈在于机芯制造；由于帝舵采用外采第三方机芯，它就像一个释放过剩需求的“安全阀”或“泄洪阀”，让买不到劳力士的顾客转买帝舵。但这一假说在数据面前站不住脚——帝舵的实际产销量极低，仅占劳力士总产能的不到 1%。绝大多数一心想要劳力士的顾客走进店内，绝不可能轻易妥协并戴着一块约 4,000 美元的帝舵碧湾（Black Bay）满意离开。 --- ### [04:02:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=14556s) 创新的前哨：“盾牌护佑皇冠”与市场竞争防御 帝舵对劳力士的真正战略价值，在于它扮演了劳力士的**“创新实验室”与“先锋护卫队”**。任何具有实验性质、可能沦为短期流行趋势（Fad）的新技术或新潮流，帝舵都可以率先下场尝试。如果尝试失败，由于懂表的硬核表迷本就预期帝舵会推出一些天马行空乃至翻车的设计，劳力士主品牌的声誉丝毫不会受损；而一旦该设计被证明经得起时间考验，劳力士便会在 5 到 10 年后以更极致的打磨与工艺将其引入主线系列。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Tudor Innovation Lab Flow accDescr: 帝舵作为创新实验室先行试错，成功经验回流劳力士，形成盾牌护卫皇冠的防御体系。 subgraph Lab ["帝舵（Tudor / 盾牌）"] A["前沿潮流与材料实验<br/>(彩色表盘 / 陶瓷圈 / 钛金属)"] --> B{"市场与耐用度验证"} B -- "失败/短期泡沫" --> C["在帝舵内部消化淘汰<br/>(主品牌零声誉风险)"] end subgraph Fortress ["劳力士（Rolex / 皇冠）"] B -- "成功且经典" --> D["历经 5-10 年精细打磨<br/>正式引入劳力士核心系列"] end subgraph Defense ["中端市场防御"] E["帝舵向上竞争<br/>(对决 Omega / TAG Heuer)"] -.-> F["劳力士稳居高端高维地位<br/>(免于向下俯身降级撕扯)"] end ``` 钟表圈有一句传神的格言——“**盾牌护佑皇冠**”（The shield protects the crown，帝舵的盾牌标志守护着劳力士的皇冠标志）。帝舵在 4,000 美元价格带构筑起坚实屏障，代替劳力士去正面迎击欧米茄（Omega）和泰格豪雅（TAG Heuer）等中端腕表品牌。帝舵负责“向上出击”，从而让劳力士永远无需为了防御竞品而“自降身段、向下俯冲”。 - **前沿技术试验田**：劳力士近年来逐步推向核心款式的特殊表盘配色、陶瓷表圈（Ceramic bezel）以及轻量化钛金属（Titanium）表壳等材质与工艺，几乎无一例外都率先在帝舵的产品线中进行了充分的生产与市场测试。 - **播客团队的共鸣类比**：两位主持人将帝舵的角色戏称为 Acquired 的衍生栏目（如过去的 LP Show 以及 ACQ2）——它们受众体量较小（收听量不到主节目的 10%），但却是测试非主线题材、嘉宾访谈形式的极佳试验场。 - **消费者的隐形福利**：对硬核腕表爱好者而言，帝舵性价比极其惊人。4,000 美元的公价折合批发价仅约 2,500 美元左右，却配备了极高水准的机芯与做工。在产量极低、前期固定研发成本无法被大规模均摊的情况下，帝舵给消费者的硬件价值诚意十足。 --- ### [04:05:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=14725s) 绘制当下的劳力士商业版图：在黑盒中探寻真实数据 作为一家百分之百由私人慈善基金会掌控的非上市企业，劳力士从未对外公开披露过经审计的详细财务报表，外界严格来说“无人知晓其全部底牌”。但在梳理这家神秘钟表帝国的现代体量时，行业分析师与商业研究者仍能通过各种公开蛛丝马迹拼凑出精准的画像。 - **核心参考信源**：节目特别致谢了两位核心数据来源：一是节目的老朋友 Arvind Radhakrishnan，他撰写过关于劳力士商业模式的详尽深度长文并挖掘出大量公开数据；二是摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）与 LuxConsult 联合出品的瑞士钟表业年度重磅行业报告，该团队凭借扎实的行业人脉与全球经销商网络调研，提供了目前腕表界公认最权威、最具参考价值的经营数据估算。 ### [04:06:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=14779s) 统治瑞士钟表业的惊人市场份额 如果对劳力士的业务规模进行估算，各项数据的误差范围基本都在 10% 到 20% 之内。劳力士每年的腕表产量大约在 110 万到 120 万枚之间——摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）给出的具体预估数字是 124 万枚。在营业收入方面，劳力士的年营收约为 110 亿美元。但真正令人震撼的并不是绝对数字，而是其在瑞士钟表业中所占据的市场份额。 根据摩根士丹利与 LuxeConsult 的测算，仅劳力士一家的销售额就占据了整个瑞士钟表市场 30.3% 的份额。在这个行业中，没有任何竞争对手能望其项背。排名第二和第三的卡地亚（Cartier）与欧米茄（Omega）各占约 7.5%，两者相加的市场体量甚至不及劳力士的一半。顶级制表巨头百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）以高昂售价闻名，按营收计算也仅占 5.6%，约合劳力士的六分之一；爱彼（Audemars Piguet）则占据 5% 左右，再往后的品牌市场分布便呈现极度碎片化的状态。 如果从出货量（单位销量）的角度来看，这种差距更是夸张到了近乎荒谬的地步。劳力士的年出货量大约是百达翡丽的 15 倍，是爱彼的 22 倍。人们在日常对话中经常把这些品牌相提并论，但如果单看生产规模，它们完全处于截然不同的物种分类和市场层级之中。 - **年产量估算**：110 万至 120 万枚（摩根士丹利测算为 124 万枚） - **批发年营收**：约 110 亿美元 - **瑞士钟表营收市占率**： - 劳力士（Rolex）：30.3% - 卡地亚（Cartier）：7.5% - 欧米茄（Omega）：7.5% - 百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）：5.6% - 爱彼（Audemars Piguet）：5.0% - **产量倍数对比**：劳力士产量约为百达翡丽的 15 倍、爱彼的 22 倍 --- ### [04:08:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=14883s) 价格区位与“非典型奢侈品”的黄金甜点位 从零售终端的平均售价（ASP）来看，各个品牌之间的界限极为鲜明。劳力士在零售商处的平均售价大约在 13,000 美元左右；相比之下，爱彼的均价高达 48,000 美元，百达翡丽约为 40,000 美元，江诗丹顿（Vacheron Constantin）也在 38,000 美元上下。如果进一步看向独立制表与超高阶玩家，里查德米尔（Richard Mille）的均价甚至落在 28 万到 30 万美元之间，捷克豹（Jacob & Co.）在 10 万美元左右，宝珀（Blancpain）、伯爵（Piaget）、梵克雅宝（Van Cleef & Arpels）等品牌的均价也都明显高于劳力士。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 钟表市场规模与均价格局 accDescr: 对比超奢品牌与劳力士在均价和产量上的不同定位策略 subgraph UltraLuxury["超高阶传统奢华制表（极致单价 × 极低产量）"] RM["Richard Mille<br>均价 ~$290,000"] AP["爱彼 (Audemars Piguet)<br>均价 ~$48,000"] PP["百达翡丽 (Patek Philippe)<br>均价 ~$40,000"] end subgraph SweetSpot["规模化工业甜点位（高单价 × 超大工业量产）"] Rolex["劳力士 (Rolex)<br>均价 ~$13,000<br>年产量 120万+ 枚<br>占瑞士表业 30.3% 营收"] end UltraLuxury -.->|"二级市场外溢效应 & 限量款背书"| Rolex ``` 正因如此，主播们提出一个核心论点：劳力士在本质上甚至不应该被视为传统意义上的“顶级奢侈品”。它没有选择把自己限制在极小产量、伺候极少数超级富豪的传统窄门里，而是在坐标曲线上找到了那个最不可思议的商业“黄金甜点位（Sweet Spot）”。它没有把“一个巨大的数字乘以一个极小的数字”，而是把“两个相当庞大的数字乘在了一起”——既保持了足够高的价格门槛让佩戴者得以展示自我身份与品味，又拥有极其庞大的工业化生产规模，从而在营收最大化的曲线上所向披靡。 与此同时，劳力士通过二级市场的精密运作弥补了高阶市场的想象力。即便其核心产品线数十年来基本保持稳定，但通过细微的表盘细节、材质迭代与型号（Reference Numbers）微调，劳力士成功在二级市场上创造出了数十万甚至数百万美元级别的极度稀缺性。这种二级市场的深厚底蕴反过来赋予了它在一级市场发布高价特殊款式的合法性——例如彩虹圈迪通拿（Rainbow Daytona）或“拼图/表情包”日志型（Day-Date Emoji）。即便它不直接在二级市场变现，这种外溢效应也巩固了其跨维度的品牌统治力。 --- ### [04:10:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=15010s) “恰在不合理的边缘”：资产阶级的情感投射 劳力士最天才、最精妙之处，在于它缔造了一种全球通用的成功符号。无论是深潜的潜水员、穿梭天际的飞行员还是探索极地的冒险家，劳力士将这些传奇叙事牢牢植入大众认知。当过去半个多世纪全球财富迎来爆发式增长时，劳力士几乎成了这种财富扩张的最佳“指数基金”。 一块劳力士对于绝大多数普通人而言依然是一笔巨款，但它的定价策略妙在“恰好卡在不合理的边缘（right on the edge of unreasonable）”。自 1950 年代以来，欧美社会崛起了一大批高收入白领精英群体——医生、律师、金融从业者，以及近年来的科技新贵。当他们迎来升职、结婚、生子或重大人生节点时，只要咬咬牙做一些财务取舍，花上 10,000 多美元买一块劳力士是完全能够实现的愿望。这种心理账户与买一辆保时捷 911 截然不同：911 价格十倍于此且缺乏实用性，绝大多数人无法冲动触及；但一块劳力士却刚好可以让普通中产在踮起脚尖时触摸到成功的质感。 两位主播谈到，这种定位类似于汽车世界的宝马（BMW）或梅赛德斯-奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）。它们绝非人人买得起的大众商品，但对于那些渴望拥有一台卓越工业制造品的人而言，只要下定决心，无论通过全款还是分期贷款，总能找到实现的途径。 --- ### [04:12:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=15143s) 汽车与时尚类比：劳力士是保时捷，百达翡丽是法拉利 在探讨劳力士在商业世界的真正对照物时，人们往往容易落入将其与时尚箱包对比的窠臼——比如把劳力士比作路易威登（Louis Vuitton），把百达翡丽比作爱马仕（Hermès）。但主播认为这个类比严重贬低了劳力士：劳力士的品牌治理绝不像 LVMH 那样泛滥，它绝不会像 LV 那样随意把 Logo 印在普通 T 恤上四处贩售。 最贴切的商业映射其实是汽车工业：**劳力士就是保时捷（Porsche），而百达翡丽就是法拉利（Ferrari）**。 | 品牌对照 | 制表界代表 | 汽车界代表 | 商业模式与产品哲学特征 | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **规模化工程旗舰** | **劳力士 (Rolex)** | **保时捷 (Porsche)** | 极高水准的工程与工业规模制造；高利润率；品牌护城河极深；几十年坚守少数核心产品线（潜航者型如同 911），每十年仅做一到两次克制的微调与现代化升级，父辈佩戴的表款在今天依旧经典。 | | **超奢纯粹主义** | **百达翡丽 (Patek Philippe)** | **法拉利 (Ferrari)** | 专注于收藏家群体；完全不在乎外界大众的眼光；超低产量、极高溢价（价格高出数倍至数十倍）；属于百万美元级的顶奢闭环，本质是完全不同的生意。 | 更令人称奇的是，劳力士在钟表领域所实现的垄断地位在其他任何品类中都不存在。即便是箱包领域的印钞机路易威登，在行业内大约也只有 20% 左右的份额；无论是爱马仕、LV 还是保时捷，它们所处的行业整体都更加分散。劳力士以单品牌独占瑞士表业 30.3% 的营收，可以说它凭一己之力直接定义了整个现代腕表品类。 --- ### [04:15:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=15327s) 瑞士钟表的宏观悖论：用 2% 的产量卷走 45% 的全球利润 从企业运营维度看，劳力士在全球拥有约 16,000 名员工，其中约 9,000 人驻扎在瑞士本土。如果跳出瑞士本身的局限，将视野放大到全球宏观钟表市场，会发现一组更为惊心动魄的剪刀差数据： - **瑞士腕表批发总规模**：在未计入零售终端加价前，全瑞士制表业（涵盖从入门级斯沃琪 Swatch、中端欧米茄到最高端的所有品牌）的批发总规模约为 350 亿美元，劳力士独占其中的 110 亿美元。 - **全球钟表总产量**：全世界每年生产的钟表总量（包含智能手表 Apple Watch、二三十美元的廉价石英表、中国及中国香港制造的大众表款）在 7 亿到 9 亿枚之间。 - **瑞士的产量占比**：瑞士全境每年生产的腕表仅约 1,700 万枚，仅占全球总出货量的 **2%** 左右。 然而，正是这区区 2% 的微小出货量，却在全球整个钟表业的销售总金额中狂揽了 **45%** 的份额。瑞士钟表工业用极高附加值收割了全球近半数的行业利润，而劳力士则是这座金字塔顶端最庞大、最坚固的基石。 ### [04:16:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=15407s) 瑞士机械表的暴利与劳力士的利润统治 全球手表每年总出货量约为 7 亿到 9 亿只，其中瑞士每年仅生产约 1700 万只手表，占比微不足道，却吞下了全球手表行业 45% 的总收入。相比之下，仅 Apple 每年出货的 Apple Watch 就达 3000 万至 5000 万只（整个智能手表行业年出货约 8000 万只），单家销量便能轻松碾压整个瑞士制表业。然而，瑞士手表的这 1700 万只中还包含大量 Swatch 塑料表与各类时尚石英表；在瑞士手表出口额中，高达 86% 来自机械表。这意味着，整个地球手表销售总额的 40% 竟然全由瑞士机械表创造——当年在面对“石英危机”冲击时，瑞士制表业坚决押注传统机械表的战略，从吸金角度看堪称神来之笔。 摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）与奢侈品咨询机构 LuxeConsult 的估算显示，在瑞士手表制造商约 350 亿美元的总收入中，创造了约 118 亿美元的总利润，推导出全行业平均营业利润率达到 29%。但两人随即指出，这几乎就像苹果公司在手机行业吃掉绝大部分利润的翻版：行业里充斥着大量营业利润率为负的参赛者（例如许多盲目跨界涉足制表的大型奢侈品集团），真正赚得盆满钵满的是劳力士。劳力士按销售额计算占据了瑞士钟表市场 30% 的份额，其实际营业利润率很可能远高于行业平均水平，直逼 40%。这意味着劳力士单凭一己之力，就吞下了整个瑞士制表行业约 40% 的净利润；而除去零售端之外极致的高度垂直整合模式，更为其提供了极佳的利润结构护城河。 - **全球智能手表年出货量**：约 8000 万只（Apple 独占约 3000 万至 5000 万只）。 - **瑞士手表总出货量**：每年约 1700 万只（含石英表、Swatch 及机械表）。 - **机械表统治地位**：瑞士手表出口金额中 86% 为机械表；全球 40% 的手表销售额均来自瑞士机械表。 - **瑞士制表行业大盘**：年收入约 350 亿美元，行业总营业利润约 118 亿美元，整体营运利润率约 29%。 - **劳力士的市占与利润估算**：占瑞士手表总销售额的 30%，但预计贡献了全行业近 40% 的总利润，营业利润率接近 40%。 --- ### [04:19:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=15544s) 资产负债表之谜：汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会与“纯属报复”的地产投资 劳力士的资产负债表对外而言完全是个黑盒。据估算，劳力士每年能够产生 35 亿至 40 亿美元的净现金流，并且这种每年 20 亿到 30 亿美元现金入账的节奏已经持续了至少一二十年。甚至在不计入任何投资回报的前提下，劳力士积攒的现金储备极有可能已超 500 亿美元——这与宜家（IKEA）那种坐拥巨额未上市现金储备的结构如出一辙。控股劳力士的汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会（Hans Wilsdorf Foundation）从不公开账目，外界估算其每年对外捐赠发放约 3 亿瑞士法郎。这虽然只占公司年现金流入的十分之一不到，但已经足以让其跻身全球每年现金分发量最活跃的慈善基金会之列。其慈善范围极广，涵盖环境、科学与艺术，但最耐人寻味的是汉斯在基金会章程中亲自写下的核心宗旨：帮助日内瓦市及其市民。基金会践行这一宗旨的方式非常纯粹而接地气——一旦日内瓦当地居民付不起房租、遭遇突发健康危机或急需用钱，就能直接申请资助，基金会核准后便默默打款救急，从不大肆张扬。 除了现金，劳力士还将巨资沉淀于全球核心黄金地段的顶尖商业地产中。他们在瑞士本土持有大量建筑，在伦敦邦德街（Bond Street）、米兰、墨尔本、东京均购置了顶级物业；在达拉斯设有大型服务中心，在宾夕法尼亚设有制表学校；在纽约曼哈顿距离洛克菲勒中心和无线电城音乐厅仅一个街区的位置，他们正在新建一栋极具现代感的全新大楼。最富有戏剧色彩的一笔交易发生在日内瓦：劳力士直接买下了死对头欧米茄（Omega）日内瓦旗舰店所在的大楼。如今欧米茄每个月都不得不乖乖向劳力士开出一张租金支票。两位主播打趣道，这笔投资如果算作“资产管理”可能牵强，但如果归入“纯粹出于恶趣味的报复行为”（spite），则绝对堪称满分杰作。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士商业帝国资金流向示意图 accDescr: 展现劳力士每年产生的现金流如何在汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会分配到慈善与全球顶级重资产配置中 subgraph Operation ["劳力士制表业务"] A["每年净现金流入<br>35亿 - 40亿美元"] end subgraph Foundation ["汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会 (100%控股)"] B["累计现金及储备<br>预估超 500 亿美元"] end subgraph Deploy ["资金流向与资产沉淀"] C["直接慈善资助<br>每年约 3 亿瑞郎<br>(科研/艺术/日内瓦市民救济)"] D["全球顶级不动产配置<br>(曼哈顿/伦敦邦德街/米兰/东京)"] E["欧米茄日内瓦旗舰店大楼<br>(欧米茄每月向劳力士交租)"] end A --> Foundation Foundation --> Deploy ``` --- ### [04:22:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=15735s) 如果劳力士上市：对标爱马仕的千亿甚至两千亿美元帝国 假设劳力士成为一家上市公司，该如何为其估值？用斯沃琪集团（Swatch Group）的行业倍数显然是荒谬的；百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）虽然同属高度垂直整合的独立顶级品牌，但同样私有未上市，且商业逻辑是超低产量乘以天价单价，与劳力士“高单价乘大体量”截然不同；LVMH 或历峰集团（Richemont）等多品牌奢侈品巨头内部业务又过于庞杂。劳力士是单一品牌、垂直整合且在行业处于无可撼动霸主地位的“纯血选手”。在公开市场中，真正具备可比性的标的只有保时捷（Porsche）和爱马仕（Hermès）。保时捷市盈率（P/E）仅约 15 倍，而爱马仕享有高达 60 倍的市盈率及约 20 倍的市销率（P/S）。 劳力士在年营收增速、约 40% 的超高营业利润率、顶级单一品牌心智上，与爱马仕如出一辙。按照劳力士每年税前约 30 亿至 40 亿美元的利润来倒推，哪怕完全不考虑其资产负债表上囤积的 500 亿美元现金与遍布全球的巨额地产，光是企业价值（EV）就足以落在 500 亿至 2000 亿美元之间。若计入真实持有的庞大现金资产并折合成总市值，劳力士一旦上市，市值保守估计在 1000 亿美元以上，甚至有望直接跻身全球市值前 50 强公司之列，足以超越美国运通（American Express）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）、Adobe、百事可乐（Pepsi）、迪士尼（Disney）、高通（Qualcomm）或 AT&T。 - **可比对象比较**：保时捷估值约 15 倍 P/E，而爱马仕估值约 60 倍 P/E（约 20 倍 P/S）。爱马仕总市值约 2920 亿欧元。 - **劳力士财务估算**：年税前利润约 30 亿至 40 亿美元，营运利润率约 40%。 - **估值区间**：尚未计算任何账面现金与地产前，纯企业价值（EV）预估在 500 亿至 2000 亿美元；若加上资产总市值可轻松突破 1000 亿美元，稳居全球上市公司前 50 名水平。 --- ### [04:25:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=15927s) 绝不上市的纯粹，与假表市场的意外“神助攻” 这一切关于估值的假设终究只是一场思维实验，因为只要基金会章程不变，劳力士就绝不可能上市。“讨论给劳力士估值甚至让人有一种亵渎感”，主播调侃道，如果今天真有人跑来向你兜售所谓的“劳力士股票”，第一反应只能是：这股份到底是从哪儿来的？是不是遇上了假股票骗局？ 话题由此延伸到了假表市场上。在长达数十年的时间里，劳力士一直是全球被仿冒伪造数量最多的钟表品牌，甚至可能是全球造假数量最多的单一消费品牌。然而在 1990 年代至 2000 年代初，猖獗的假表市场反而在客观上极大地帮助了劳力士：当年许多普通人去纽约旅游的一大经典项目就是特地跑到运河街（Canal Street）地摊上去淘一只劳力士假表。在劳力士积极向大众心智普及品牌知名度并筑造顶级声望的阶段，这种无处不在的仿冒文化非但没有削弱品牌价值，反而以极低的成本将劳力士塑造成了全球公认的“顶级成功人士符号”，为其传奇神话推波助澜；直到今天，精仿假表技术的高超程度依然令人称奇。 ### [04:26:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=15997s) 商业权力（Power）分析：劳力士究竟在与谁竞争？ 在开始剖析劳力士的核心壁垒之前，两人顺带提到了二级市场中真假劳力士混杂的现状：哪怕是去相对正规有信誉的在线零售商那里买劳力士，消费者也无法百分之百保证其纯正性，经常出现外壳是正品但机芯被替换，或者部分零件造假的情况。 随后，对话正式进入 Hamilton Helmer 的《七大商业权力》（7 Powers）分析框架，旨在探讨究竟是什么赋予了企业持续的超额回报（persistent differential returns），使其利润率能长期显著超越最接近的竞争对手。面对这七种力量（逆向定位、规模经济、网络效应、转换成本、流程权力、品牌效应、垄断资源），两人首先笑称：对于现在的劳力士来说，这几乎完全就是“品牌”（Branding），分析起来甚至显得有些无聊。 讨论的转折点在于：**究竟谁才是劳力士最接近的竞争对手？** - 有人认为是百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）； - 有人认为是欧米茄（Omega）； - 甚至有人提出是苹果（Apple）。 对于苹果是否构成竞争，两人展开了激烈的交锋。一方极力反驳，认为劳力士根本就不是用来“看时间”的工具，腕表的功能性在当今已毫无意义；但另一方指出，尽管功能不同，**手腕上的空间（wrist real estate）是有限且排他的**。绝大多数人不会在两只手上各戴一块表——其中一位主持人尝试了整整一周“双表佩戴”（左手一块右手一块），直言感觉“非常怪异”。事实上，一块表代表手腕上的精湛机械工艺，另一块则是通知中心与健康监测设备（用来记录睡眠和卡路里长达9年）。尽管二者在手腕空间上存在不可调和的零和博弈，但在消费者心智中绝不会去对比它们的价格——购买劳力士的花费大约是购买 Apple Watch 的10倍以上。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 劳力士与不同对手的竞争维度 accDescr: 展现劳力士在手腕佩戴空间与心理心智上与苹果、欧米茄以及自身历史定位的交错竞争关系 subgraph WristBattle["手腕空间之争 (Wrist Real Estate)"] Apple["Apple Watch: 通知/健康监测 ($400-$800)"] RolexP["Rolex: 纯粹机械工艺与身份标识 (10x+ 价格)"] Apple <-. 零和排他占用.-> RolexP end subgraph IndustryBattle["行业与历史竞争维度"] Omega["欧米茄 (Omega): 传统对手 / 执行与资本结构失误"] Historical["战后黄金时代 (40-60年代): 职业工具表精准定位"] end RolexP --- Omega RolexP --- Historical ``` - **七大权力框架的局限**：今天的劳力士在某种意义上已经没有真正的同行竞品，因此根本不存在所谓针对谁的“逆向定位”（Counter-Positioning）。它凭借品牌统治力和品类所有权（Category Ownership）独占鳌头。 - **历史维度的权力积累**：更有价值的视角是回到20世纪40、50和60年代，探究劳力士在生活方式时代（Lifestyle Era）推出专业运动表时究竟依靠了什么。那并不是某种对手在结构上做不到的逆向定位，而是在极其契合的产品战略上，展现出了远超同行的品牌战术执行力。 - **90年代以来的规模经济（Scale Economies）**：当劳力士在90年代达到“逃逸速度”后，规模经济成为了难以逾越的壁垒。正是因为拥有庞大的体量，劳力士可以投入极度不计成本的工程研发、严苛制造测试，并对零售渠道拥有压倒性的议价权。 - **奢侈品运作的终极逻辑**：顶级奢侈品牌管理往往跳脱出常规的《七大权力》商业框架。它们的目标是以“几个世纪”的极长周期来经营，为了巩固无形资产，宁愿在顺境时牺牲当期利润率或未来五年的营业利润。 --- ### [04:31:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=16308s) 商业秘籍（Playbook）：30%市场份额背后的超级稳定性 商业世界中最令人震惊的数据之一，是劳力士独自斩获了整个瑞士制表业约 **30% 的销售额份额**，而位居第二的竞争对手仅仅占有 **7.5%** 左右。如此悬殊的领先优势从何而来？ 两人深入探讨了“劳力士究竟在何时冒过真正巨大的风险”。通常商业史上的超级赢家往往是通过在关键时刻进行高风险、反直觉的豪赌胜出的，但劳力士在绝大部分关键节点上（例如二战后将手表送给艾森豪威尔总统的营销公关、开创性的代言人模式、与智威汤逊（J. Walter Thompson）及 IMG 经纪公司的合作、石英危机时的应对，以及2008年金融危机后逆势加大在美广告投放），其实并没有孤注一掷地去冒险。相反，它们是在拥有资源和独特基金会结构的优势下，**在每个拐点都做出了最符合逻辑、最理性的决定，并把执行力做到了极致**。这种日积月累的理性与执行优势，最终复利成了无人能及的鸿沟。 - **唯一的“赌上身家”时刻**：回溯历史，劳力士唯一一次真正意义上押上公司命运的惊天冒险，是在创办初期创始人汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）向比尔的埃格勒（Aegler）机芯厂下了海量腕表机芯订单。 - **惊人的资本杠杆**：当时这一笔订单的总金额是劳力士自身资本金的 **整整5倍**。这几乎必然是一个长达数年的供货协议，并高度依赖埃格勒方面提供的商业信用支持。 - **核心竞争力在于“连续性”（Continuity）**：劳力士极度沉默、从不对外多言，但其真正的核心秘籍就在于“连续性”。尽管经历过不同的时代转型，但他们在战略、市场定位、标志性产品线以及组织文化上的坚守时间，比地球上几乎任何公司都要漫长和持久。 --- ### [04:34:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=16479s) 困惑的例外与混乱的产品命名规则 尽管劳力士以克制与连续性闻名，但在其商业历史上也出现过一些令人百思不得其解的“奇葩例外”： - **怪诞的特定表款**：比如表盘带有表情符号和七彩拼图图案的“拼图 Day-Date”（Emoji watch / Jigsaw Day-Date），或是与达美乐披萨（Domino's Pizza）合作的员工奖励定制盘面款。 - **不可捉摸的偶发怪趣**：与爱马仕（Hermès）那种统一连贯、极具艺术感的趣味不同，劳力士大约每十年会突然做出一个匪夷所思的决策，既看不出战略意图，又似乎无伤大雅。 - **代言人资源的错位分配**：最典型的昏招莫过于当年居然将高尔夫超级巨星泰格·伍兹（Tiger Woods）签给副牌帝舵（Tudor）当代言人，令人大跌眼镜——“你为什么要在一个二线品牌上把伍兹这种核武器级的资源白白浪费掉？” - **混乱的命名法**： - 劳力士重启 Milgauss 防磁腕表时大获成功，但早期的 Milgauss 在形态上本质上是一款潜航者（Submariner），而重新发布的版本在结构上却完全变成了探险家型（Explorer），除了名字和 1,000 高斯的防磁能力外毫无血缘关系。 - **后缀“2”的玄学**：Explorer II 是一块外观与 Explorer 截然不同的大号全新表款；但 GMT-Master II 却几乎完全继承了老款 GMT-Master 的形态。 - **产品名字的生硬堆砌**：比如著名的深潜系列“Deepsea Sea-Dweller”，竟然把两个名字毫无违和地直接拼在了一起。 随后，两人将时间线拉回到智能手表时代的起点——2014年 Apple Watch 震撼亮相，探讨这是否对瑞士机械表行业造成了新一轮的认知冲击。 ### [04:36:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=16598s) Apple Watch 对钟表业的双重冲击：消灭中低端，却成为劳力士的引流入口 两位主持人探讨了 Apple Watch 等智能手表的普及对瑞士机械表行业的戏剧性影响。出乎很多人意料的是，智能手表反而是发生在劳力士（Rolex）、爱彼（Audemars Piguet）和百达翡丽（Patek Philippe）身上最美妙的事情。智能手表重新唤醒了大众对腕上设备的认知与佩戴习惯。在过去，许多人只看智能手机屏幕，手腕上空无一物；如今戴上几百美元的智能手表后，消费者的心理阈值被打破——“我既然愿意花几百美元在手腕上，那是不是也能花上千甚至几万美元买一块更好的机械表？”这种阶梯式的消费心理升级，意外地让顶级机械腕表收获了源源不断的新关注度。 然而，Apple Watch 对定价在 500 到 1000 美元区间的入门级瑞士“轻奢”机械表（如浪琴 Longines、天梭 Tissot、泰格豪雅 TAG Heuer）以及时尚石英表（Fashion Watches）来说，却是一场毁灭性的降维打击。当消费者手握相同的预算时，花几百美元买一块无法提供任何身份溢价或情绪价值的过时低端机械表显得毫无道理，而买一块功能强大的 Apple Watch 则合情合理。这也彻底摧毁了 90 年代由斯沃琪集团（Swatch Group）和 Fossil 等引领的平价时尚石英表市场——Fossil 的股价自 Apple Watch 发布以来直接暴跌了 99%，整个平价时尚腕表品类近乎归零。 《纽约时报》曾在 Apple Watch 发布前刊文引述苹果内部人士的爆料，称当时苹果首席设计官乔尼·艾夫（Jony Ive）在公司四处夸口，扬言苹果即将推出的手表将彻底摧毁整个瑞士制表业。回过头看，艾夫既百分之百正确，也百分之百错误：他精准预言了瑞士钟表中低端市场的毁灭，但在顶级奢侈品领域，售价上万美元的黄金版 Apple Watch Edition 根本无人买单。高端手表收藏家绝不会去买一块几年就会被软件淘汰的金苹果，但广大购买普通 Apple Watch 的人群中，有一小部分人沿着这条通路最终走入了顶级机械表的世界；因为高端机械表的高客单价特性，哪怕只有极小比例的苹果用户转化，也足以给劳力士们带来极其惊人的销售额。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Apple Watch 对不同层级钟表市场的冲击分流 accDescr: 展示 Apple Watch 的出现如何击溃低端时尚表与中档机械表，同时反向为顶级机械表输送高净值消费人群。 AW["Apple Watch 与智能手表普及"] --> LowEnd["时尚石英表与轻奢机械表<br/>($500 - $1,000)"] AW --> HighEnd["顶级机械腕表<br/>(劳力士 / 爱彼 / 百达翡丽)"] LowEnd --> Destruct["遭受毁灭性打击<br/>功能被碾压且无身份象征<br/>Fossil 股价暴跌 99%"] HighEnd --> Benefit["重塑手腕佩戴习惯<br/>转化极小部分高净值用户升级<br/>带来巨大的新增市场需求"] ``` - **500 至 1,000 美元中端表窘境**：既没有顶级奢侈品的身份象征，又缺乏智能穿戴的功能，彻底被数码产品挤压淘汰。 - **Fossil 资本市场表现**：受 Apple Watch 与智能穿戴冲击，Fossil 股价累计跌幅高达 99%。 - **调侃“Apple WatchPlay”**：主持人戏称就像汽车除了特斯拉基本都配有 CarPlay 一样，传统机械表要是能内置健身追踪的“Apple WatchPlay”就好了，但也笑称劳力士如果真有人在秘密实验室研发智能手表，在公司里大概会被当成异类（pariahs）看待。 --- ### [04:40:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=16828s) “功能借口”的消失与纯粹的男性珠宝 主持人回顾了手机在 2002 至 2003 年代普及、并在 2010 年代演变为智能手机的过程。正是在那一转折点上，人类社会彻底告别了“需要戴手表来看时间”的实用阶段。在 2005 年之前，几乎人人都切实需要一块手表；而如今，手表作为功能性工具的“功能借口”（functioning alibi）已荡然无存。 两人借由消费心理学对比了其他大宗消费：即使一个人花重金购买一辆保时捷 911，或者购买一只昂贵的女包，他们依然拥有坚不可摧的“功能借口”——“我出门需要交通工具代步”、“我出门需要包包装随身物品”。但今天花几万美元买一块两百多个精密齿轮构成的钢表，没有任何实际功能支撑，连“我喜欢机械工程美学”这种理由在外界看来都显得十分单薄。这是一种纯粹的自我认同与社会身份投射（“当我戴上它，我感觉自己成了更好的自己”），而这一功能借口彻底坍塌的时间节点，恰恰与高端机械表彻底跃升为真正意义上的顶级奢侈品的时间高度吻合。 面对“为什么这个由 200 个齿轮组成的精钢物件会成为终极成功象征”的提问，答案其实显而易见：在整个 20 世纪的绝大部分时间里，机械腕表是男性唯一被广泛社会认可的珠宝饰品。在普遍社会规范中，注重实用性的传统男性不能随意佩戴项链或手镯，手腕上的手表（以及手指上的婚戒）便成了唯一既合情合理又体面的身份与财富展示窗口。 --- ### [04:42:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=16975s) 历史延展性、客户确定性与劳力士极低的员工流失率 探讨进一步深入到社会心理学：如果当一件物品彻底失去其实用价值达百年之久（经历四五代人），它是否还能维持住现有的身份象征地位？主持人提出，虽然电话、传真机这类纯实用技术淘汰后便失去了任何文化象征，但机械表很可能演变为类似于纯粹的手镯和高级珠宝。 劳力士之所以能长期维持超高保值率与品牌心智，关键还在于其极其克制的“微小迭代（slow iterations）”设计哲学。劳力士从不轻易大改产品线，这为买家提供了巨大的确定性——二十年前购买的水鬼（Submariner）与今天专柜陈列的新款几乎别无二致，这让每一位顾客低头看表时都觉得自己当初做出了无比聪明的决定。相比之下，如果一个品牌频繁推出新形态（如早年的 Turn-O-Graph），或者像智能手机那样两年后就让上一代产品沦为电子垃圾，消费者便会感到贬值与后悔。劳力士守护经典外观，本质上是在守护老顾客的资产价值与心理满足感。 最后，主持人在调研中发现了一个极具说服力的细节：在商业界，你几乎从未听过“前劳力士员工”（former Rolex employee）这个称呼。不同于硅谷科技公司频繁的人才跳槽，员工一旦进入劳力士，往往会在那里工作整整一生。劳力士凭借业内顶级的薪酬福利、不可撼动的行业龙头地位以及持续迭代的尖端工艺，牢牢锁定了团队的忠诚度。这种超低的人员流动性不仅维护了极致的保密文化，也让那些日复一日精细打磨上万块腕表的匠人们拥有无与伦比的专注与归属感。 --- ### [04:45:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17152s) 核心本质：供需曲线上最完美的企业 在全期节目的“核心本质（Quintessence）”总结环节，两位主持人得出了最终结论：劳力士是整个商业史以及节目所研究过的所有商业案例中，处于“价格与数量（供需曲线）”上最完美位置的公司。 许多顶级奢侈品（如某些独立制表品牌或 Hermès 的特定产品）为了维持极度奢华而牺牲了规模；而大众消费品虽有海量产能，却无法维持溢价。劳力士做到了将年产量维持在极其庞大的 100 万只以上，同时还能保持全球专柜一表难求的排队溢价。凭借在供给与需求之间最精准的甜点平衡（sweet spot），劳力士不仅占据了全球钟表行业近 30% 的营收份额，更缔造了年入超过 100 亿美元的私密制表商业帝国。 ### [04:46:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17203s) 创始人的品格：汉斯·威尔斯多夫的遗产与慈善基金会 劳力士展现出一个令人惊叹的商业奇迹：绝大多数表款的等候名单长达数年之久，然而他们每年却能稳稳生产制造超过 100 万只腕表。他们让无数购买者坚信自己买到的是举世无双、弥足珍贵的心血之作，而事实也的确如此。在复盘总结的尾声，两位主持人对这家公司由衷赞叹：尽管节目中偶有揶揄，但劳力士在产品研发、战略布局与执行力上，堪称全行业乃至商业史上无可匹敌的巅峰典范。 不仅如此，大卫特别补充了一段关于劳力士创始人汉斯·威尔斯多夫（Hans Wilsdorf）的个人思考。在商业历史上，许多伟大公司的缔造者在道德层面常常充满争议，甚至在 Acquired 过往节目中不乏性格恶劣的极端案例。但就现存历史事实来看，汉斯·威尔斯多夫展现出罕见的温厚与大善。他虽然一生无嗣，却深爱并全心陪伴自己的两任妻子；在 1927 年，他不仅敏锐捕捉到营销契机，更成就了伦敦普通女秘书梅赛德斯·吉莉斯（Mercedes Gleitze）的传奇。他在晚年设立了汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会（Hans Wilsdorf Foundation），将劳力士全部股权托付其中。该基金会如今每年向社会捐赠高达 3 亿瑞士法郎，其中巨额资金更是直接发放给日内瓦本地的困难群体，展现了纯粹的本地反哺情怀。 关于“创办这般规模的企业究竟需要怎样的性格特质”，两人探讨道，外界常以为创业者必须残酷无情，但现实更像是一个微缩世界：好人与坏人皆有。成为传奇创始人并不必然需要成为恶人，核心在于你必须在某些特质上做到“极其极致（extremely something）”，并且这种极致必须与时代时机、产品形态和目标市场形成高度契合。 - **年产能与排队神话**：每年稳定制造并交付超过 100 万只腕表，却依然维持数年的超长提表等候名单。 - **汉斯·威尔斯多夫基金会**：拥有劳力士 100% 股权，每年向慈善事业支出约 3 亿瑞士法郎，其中包括大量直接针对日内瓦当地贫困市民的现金救助。 - **历史人物的温度**：1927 年赞助英国速记员梅赛德斯·吉莉斯佩戴劳力士牡蛎壳腕表横渡英吉利海峡，将其塑造成家喻户晓的平民英雄与品牌大使。 --- ### [04:48:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17338s) 机械表的本质重构：从“看时间”到全新任务 本分享了他的“核心精髓（Quintessence）”：如今将劳力士粗暴定义为钟表行业的“高端”或“中端”是完全错误的。在石英危机（Quartz Crisis）之后，机械表作为一种工业品类，其所承担的“待办任务（Job to be Done）”已经与过去几个世纪发生了根本性的位移。现代机械表行业早已不再是为了精准读取时间——若仅仅为了看时间，石英表、智能手表都远比它更为精准低廉。虽然它们都占据着手腕这一方“腕上地产（wrist real estate）”，但它们在消费者心智中解决的问题截然不同。劳力士在石英危机后不仅没有被时代淘洗，反而在过去二十年积累的工具表（Tool Watch）和专业潜水、飞行系列的基础上，彻底确立了全新的产品定位。 本与大卫总结出一个极具共鸣的“腕表爱好者认知闭环”：当你刚开始踏入钟表圈子时，劳力士是你梦寐以求的第一只表；随后，你可能会经历漫长而曲折的探索之旅，沉迷于更复杂的小众独立制表、更繁复的打磨工艺与更高昂的定价；但当你穷尽了钟表行业的全貌之后，你最终回过头来发现，自己重新回到了劳力士。在追求极致的工程坚固度、日常耐用性、防水防磁性能、自动上链效率以及售后可维护性上，这个年产百万只、拥有大众知名度的品牌，恰恰也是整个工业界制造水准最高的王者。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 钟表爱好者的认知闭环路径 accDescr: 展示表友从新手期向往劳力士，到探索复杂小众高奢，再到最终回归劳力士工业巅峰的完整心智旅程。 A["入门新手阶段<br/>向往大众认知的劳力士"] --> B["进阶探索阶段<br/>追逐复杂功能与小众艺术"] B --> C["高级奢华阶段<br/>涉足高定价与独立制表"] C --> D["终极认知回归<br/>折服于劳力士无可匹敌的<br/>工业制造与可靠性"] ``` --- ### [04:51:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17480s) 工业神话的镜像：劳力士与苹果的惊人契合 顺着这一闭环曲线深入剖析，两人发现劳力士在商业本质上最完美的对标物并非爱马仕或法拉利，而是科技巨头苹果公司（Apple）。如果你打开劳力士的官方网站浏览产品页面，会发现其呈现逻辑与苹果产品发布页如出一辙：高度聚焦于自研专利核心部件的命名（例如劳力士的“蓝色 Parachrom 游丝”之于苹果的“仿生神经网络引擎”与“Liquid Retina 视网膜显示屏”）；其官方宣传视频充满高光金属特写、零件在真空中精密组装穿梭、呼啸着坠入深海测试等极具视觉张力的镜头。 劳力士与苹果共享着几乎一致的超级商业模型：在维持大规模量产的同时坐拥惊人的高毛利。它们没有走向传统奢侈品那种极低产量、极高溢价的极端，而是在“巨大的出货量”与“不菲的单品均价”之间找到了最完美的乘积平衡点。无论是亿万富翁还是刚刚拥有人生的年轻人，手腕上或口袋里都可以佩戴或使用相同的劳力士与 iPhone。正如苹果以一己之力重新定义了智能手机与智能手表市场一样，劳力士也以独一无二的姿态定义了现代机械表的世界。 | 商业与品牌维度 | 劳力士 (Rolex) | 苹果公司 (Apple) | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **产品展现逻辑** | 突出独家专有名词（如 Parachrom 游丝、Cerachrom 陶质字圈） | 突出专有硬件命名（如 Neural Engine、Liquid Retina 屏幕） | | **视觉呈现风格** | 高光质感、零件爆炸拆解图、深海与极端环境压力测试 | 高度打光渲染、微距慢动作、内部流线与材质雕琢 | | **财务与规模模型** | 超百万只工业量产 × 万美元级单价，兼具规模与极高利润率 | 数亿台消费级量产 × 千美元级单价，行业利润收割机 | | **社会阶层穿透力** | 亿万富豪与首次购置高档腕表的新人佩戴同一款式 | 顶级政商巨贾与普通中学生使用同一代数码终端 | --- ### [04:52:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17566s) 冷知识对决：紫外线光刻技术与深海潜水记录 在进入每期固定的 Carve Outs 推荐环节前，两人开启了一场精彩的冷知识比拼。本首先抛出了一则震撼的技术事实：劳力士在精密工业制造上的造诣已经登峰造极，他们甚至引入了深紫外线光刻（UV Lithography / LIGA）工艺。劳力士使用该技术当然不是为了制造硅芯片——他们极力避免机械表与半导体产生丝毫关联——而是用其高精度微细雕刻劳力士迪通拿（Rolex Daytona）计时机芯中极其精密的特殊传动齿轮。这种微米级的齿廓啮合能彻底消除机械计时秒针启动时的微小抖动或回跳，实现按压瞬间绝对稳定平滑的走针。 大卫随即抛出了反击问题：“当今世界下潜深度最深的手表记录保持者是谁？”虽然在大众心智中，劳力士凭借深海挑战者（Deepsea Challenge）几乎垄断了深潜第一的品牌形象，但冷酷的现实是：2012 年詹姆斯·卡梅隆携劳力士潜入马里亚纳海沟（Mariana Trench）创下纪录后，欧米茄（Omega）于 2019 年推出了海马系列海洋宇宙 Ultra Deep 专业潜水表，并在同海沟下潜至更深处，比劳力士的纪录多深了约 20 米。大卫调侃道，这正是钟表界最经典的“欧米茄对决劳力士”缩影：即使在极限参数上欧米茄技术性拔得头筹，但在全世界公众的心智认同与市场认知中，登上王座的却永远是劳力士。 - **光刻造表**：劳力士利用紫外光刻技术加工特殊微型齿轮，确保迪通拿计时码表启动时秒针毫无虚位跳动。 - **深海之争**：欧米茄 Ultra Deep 于 2019 年下潜深度超越劳力士 2012 年纪录 20 米，但劳力士在营销与心智占领上依然无可匹敌。 --- ### [04:54:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17676s) 节目结语与 Carve Outs 好物分享 长达数小时的劳力士长篇商业史诗录制接近尾声，两位主持人表达了对听众由衷的感谢，并感叹研究劳力士的深度之广，甚至让人在录制前意犹未尽、不忍合上资料。随后两人分享了近期的生活与生产力推荐（Carve Outs）： 大卫分享了自己近期最感恩的文化内容：由于全家老小在过去一周不幸相继患上重流感，在极度繁重的节目调研与照看病患的巨大压力下，澳大利亚广播公司（ABC）出品的儿童动画神作《布鲁伊》（*Bluey*，由乔·布鲁姆 Joe Brumm 创作）成了他的“救命稻草”。大卫盛赞这是有史以来最卓越的儿童剧集，不仅陪伴了他生病的 3 岁女儿，而且剧情精妙温情，成年人陪看时也毫无煎熬之感。 本则带来了两项精彩分享： 1. **播客客串动态**：他与大卫在两周前受邀做客由达克斯·夏普德（Dax Shepard）与莫妮卡·帕德曼（Monica Padman）主持的著名播客《Armchair Expert》，共同更新并深入探讨了此前 Acquired 聊过的 NFL（国家美式橄榄球联盟）商业帝国。 2. **AI 工具推荐**：ElevenLabs 推出的应用程序 Eleven Reader。该应用支持用户粘贴网页链接或直接上传大型 PDF 报告，利用极具自然人声质感且极具说服力的 AI 语音朗读长篇文字资料，成为日常密集阅读与高强度调研的杀手级工具。 ### [04:56:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17786s) 本期 Carve Out：Eleven Reader 与两位主持人的信息摄取习惯 Ben 详细介绍了自己在本期节目中的 Carve Out 推荐：Eleven Reader。他解释道，这个工具能用极其逼真、富有自然人类质感的声音朗读文本。Ben 坦言，自己早在 15 年前就是那种会高亮选中文本、右键点击利用苹果电脑内置语音朗读功能的人，因为他在听觉上处理信息的能力远胜于视觉阅读。 在准备劳力士这期节目的过程中，Ben 面临着海量的研究材料：大量非有声书、非播客形式的 PDF 报告。市面上的劳力士研究文献大多以厚重的精装大开本（Coffee Table Books）形式出版，几乎没有 Kindle 电子书版本；Ben 甚至强迫自己硬啃了两本实体大书。在这期间，Eleven Reader 帮了大忙，使他能够通过极其拟真且富有吸引力的 AI 人声朗读，在听觉中消化海量的文字材料。 David 随即感慨这恰恰展现了 Acquired 团队的互补优势：两人的信息摄取方式截然相反。David 习惯手握实体硬皮书，手里拿着铅笔随时涂写批注；而 Ben 则最适合在进行 10 英里长跑时一边听一边停下来记笔记。 - **推荐工具**：Eleven Reader（文本转逼真人声语音朗读工具）。 - **Ben 的信息摄取风格**：高度偏好听觉，擅长在跑步运动中通过音频吸收海量 PDF 文本并记录要点。 - **David 的信息摄取风格**：偏好纸质原书、实体书页与手写铅笔批注。 --- ### [04:57:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17856s) 致谢合作伙伴与钟表界关键协助者 两位主持人向本季的合作伙伴致以衷心感谢，包括 J.P. Morgan Payments、ServiceNow、Fundrise 以及 Huntress。 随后，他们逐一鸣谢了在制作劳力士专题过程中提供关键支持的钟表行家、经销商与资深媒体人： - **Marc Bridge**：珠宝交易平台 At Present 的创始人兼 CEO，也是 David 和 Ben 的多年好友。 - **Benjamin Clymer**：钟表权威媒体 HODINKEE 的创始人兼 CEO，不仅耐心接听长途电话，还在短信中回答了 Ben 无数繁杂的问题。 - **Joe Thompson**：HODINKEE 执行主编、钟表报道界的传奇记者。就在节目临近录制尾声时，Joe 仍在邮件中发送最新的跟进信息，让节目得以及时修正并纳入准确的数据统计。 - **James Dowling**：劳力士权威著作《The Best of Time: Rolex Wristwatches: An Unauthorized History》的合著者。主持人称赞该书是劳力士诸多精装画册中内容最为扎实顶尖的作品之一（Ben 同时也提到了 Franz-Christoph Heel 所著的《Rolex: A Story in Time》同样出色）。James 在正赶写将于 10 月出版的新书《The Rolex Legacy》的紧迫截稿期内，依然慷慨抽出时间提供解答。 --- ### [04:59:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus&t=17943s) 听众社群、行业研报与更多节目指引 两位主持人特别感谢了来自社群与行业分析师的关键启发： - **Twitter 网友 Sleepwell Capital**：约一年前便发私信力劝他们制作劳力士选题，并分享了大量珍贵的网络研究线索。 - **广大听众社群**：劳力士是 Acquired 开播以来收到呼声最高的选题，多年来在 Slack 和邮件中建议做劳力士的听众超过 100 位。 - **行业研报支持**：特别致谢 Morgan Stanley（摩根士丹利）与瑞士咨询公司 LuxeConsult 联合出品的瑞士钟表业年度深度报告，以及 Worldly Partners 的 Arvinda Navaratnam 撰写的深度研究专文。 在节目尾声，主持人引导对奢侈品与商业史感兴趣的听众去收听往期关于 LVMH、Hermès（爱马仕）和 Porsche（保时捷）的专题；由于下一期正片需等待一个月，听众可以先收听 ACQ2 对 Vercel 创始人兼 CEO Guillermo Rauch 的专访。最后，节目在熟悉的结尾曲中正式落下帷幕。 ## Video description Rolex is a series of paradoxes. They sell obsolete and objectively inferior mechanical devices for 10-1000x the price of their superior digital successors… and demand is stronger than ever in history! Their products are comparable to a Hermès Birkin bag in price, luxury status and waitlist times… yet they produce over 1m units / year (roughly 10x annual Birkin production). They make the most universally recognized and desired Swiss watches… yet their founder wasn’t Swiss and didn’t start the company in Switzerland! If Rolex were publicly traded, they’d almost certainly be among the top 50 market cap companies in the world… yet they’re 100% owned by a charitable foundation in Geneva that (among other things) literally just gives away money to local people in the city. Tune in for one of the most fascinating and admirable companies we’ve ever covered on Acquired. We had an absolute blast making the episode, and hope you enjoy it as much as we did! *Links:* - The Renaissance of the Swiss Watch Industry - Marc Bridge: https://atpresent.substack.com/p/the-renaissance-of-the-swiss-watch - HODINKEE - Inside All Four Rolex Manufacturing Facilities: https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/inside-rolex - “If you were…” campaign: https://www.watchprosite.com/rolex/if-you-were-reading-the-new-yorker-tomorrow--you-d-wear-a-rolex-/732.1577316.15622151/ - Worldly Partners’ Multi-Decade Rolex Study: https://worldlypartners.com/businesshistory - Episode sources: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/rolex#sources *Carve Outs:* - Bluey: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7678620/ - Acquired on Armchair Expert: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6xGGNXHVEVrEqH0kh0xbbz?si=mzd5tDwOTcOIh8zScIqk2A - Eleven Reader: https://elevenreader.io *More Acquired:* - Get email updates https://www.acquired.fm/email and vote on future episodes! - Join the Slack http://acquired.fm/slack - Check out the latest swag in the ACQ Merch Store https://www.acquired.fm/store! _Note: Acquired hosts and guests may hold assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. You should do your own research and make your own independent decisions when considering any financial transactions._ [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUKLhaa0Pus)

[28:32] Hans Wilsdorf: trade only in Specialty horological products and especially in new lines [80:19] all of the logic is encoded mechanically in a gear train [91:04] on every wrist in the world. [110:53] Men who guide the destinies of the world wear Rolex watches. [110:53] When a man has the world in his hands, you expect to find a Rolex on his wrist. [110:53] A Rolex will never change the world. We leave that to the people who wear them. [160:05] If you were flying the Concorde tomorrow, you’d wear a Rolex. [187:19] it is incorrect to describe markets by the products in them; you should describe markets by the job to be done [194:26] Jean-Claude Biver: Since 1735, there has never been a quartz Blancpain watch. And there never will be. [200:12] Joe Thompson: tremendously ballsy move [234:59] the Tudor Shield protects the Rolex Crown [234:59] Rolex doesn't ever have to punch down [265:48] Rolex certainly was and... probably still is the most faked... brand in the world. [289:50] Ben: Rolex is a company that the more you study it, the more you like it.

[0:00] all right David what's on your wrist [0:02] well currently on the wrist is my [0:04] stainless white face Daytona that my dad [0:07] gave me I think it was still quite [0:09] popular when he gave it to me probably [0:11] close to 15 years ago but not like it is [0:14] today a strong choice I am actually also [0:16] wearing a Daytona that I am borrowing [0:18] from a good friend of the show M love it [0:21] well fun fact for listeners the watch [0:24] that David is wearing is the one that I [0:26] was wearing during the Morris Chang [0:27] interview when we wanted to foreshadow [0:30] this was our next episode yes and in [0:32] front of me here now in my hand but not [0:34] on my wrist is my other Rolex that my [0:37] dad gave me a long time ago my rasur [0:40] datejust dude you got to go one on each [0:44] wrist great all right who got the [0:48] truth is it you is it you is it you who [0:52] got the truth [0:53] now is it you is it you is it you sit me [0:57] down say it straight another story on [1:01] the way who got the TR welcome to the [1:04] spring 2025 season of acquired the [1:06] podcast about great companies and the [1:08] stories and playbooks behind them I'm [1:10] Ben Gilbert I'm David Rosenthal and we [1:13] are your hosts all you need for [1:15] timekeeping is something that happens at [1:17] a constant rate and some way to count it [1:20] it could be sand in an hourglass it [1:23] could be a weight being pulled down by [1:26] gravity on a grandfather clock slowly [1:28] turning the hands moderated by The Tick [1:31] Tock of a pendulum or it could be a [1:34] mechanical watch on your wrist driven by [1:37] a complex and beautiful array of [1:39] hundreds of gears and Springs today [1:42] listeners we tell you the story that we [1:45] can't believe we have an already told on [1:47] acquired Rolex o Rolex is a Cascade of [1:50] paradoxes it's one of the best known [1:53] brands in the world but despite that [1:55] it's one of the least known companies in [1:57] the world they're privately held by a [2:00] charitable Foundation the Hans wisdorf [2:02] foundation so they don't have to [2:04] disclose anything and really they never [2:06] do they're one of the most secretive [2:09] companies that we have ever studied and [2:10] David check me on this I think they're [2:12] even more secretive than Ikea or Mars oh [2:15] yeah it's funny that the closer to the [2:16] present day we get the less we know [2:19] totally they operate like an [2:20] intelligence agency over there yes like [2:23] James Bond one might say oh or one might [2:26] not say listeners they make [2:30] that everyone wants to buy but nobody [2:32] seems to be able to get with famously [2:34] long and opaque lists at retailers [2:37] except of course over a million people a [2:39] year actually do buy one and for an [2:42] average price of [2:44] $133,000 each that is until you walk out [2:47] of the store and then they instantly [2:49] become worth more at least for a lot of [2:52] the models these days to your point [2:53] about paradoxes of Rolex this is one of [2:55] the greatest ones it is absolutely one [2:58] of the very very top top tier luxury [3:00] brands in the world and yet they also [3:02] sell a lot of units Hermes doesn't sell [3:05] a million birkens every year there's [3:07] probably 10 times more Rolexes sold than [3:09] Burkin sold or at least on that order [3:12] it's a success built on the back of [3:14] craftsmanship engineering and [3:15] Manufacturing honed and perfected over [3:18] 120 years it is one of the greatest [3:20] brands in the world built meticulously [3:22] and so intentionally David and my [3:25] favorite part of the Paradox this is the [3:27] story of the most successful Swiss watch [3:30] company but it wasn't founded in [3:32] Switzerland or even by a Swiss person no [3:36] no it was not it's a 10 plus billion [3:39] doll Revenue business performing a dead [3:41] craft obsoleted by the digital world [3:43] they make a watch that can't tell the [3:45] time as good as my Apple watch or even a [3:48] $10 Casio for that matter so what is [3:51] going on here how did Rolex become Rolex [3:54] this is a story we've been giddy to [3:55] share oh so excited well one big [3:58] disclaimer up front much like how our [4:00] NFL episode wasn't about football and [4:02] our NBA episode wasn't about basketball [4:04] this episode isn't really about watches [4:07] it's about the business of watches yes [4:10] if you want to know every time an [4:11] episode drops check out our email list [4:13] it is the only place where we will share [4:15] a hint of what our next episode will be [4:18] and we'll share Corrections updates and [4:19] little tidbits that we learn from [4:21] previous episodes that's acquired. fm/ [4:25] or click the link in the show notes join [4:27] the slack come talk to us about this [4:28] episode with the whole acquired [4:30] Community afterwards acquired. fm/ slack [4:34] and if you want more acquired between [4:35] monthly episodes check out aq2 our [4:38] interview show where we talk to Founders [4:40] CEOs and investors who are building [4:42] businesses in areas that we've covered [4:45] on the show the most recent one was a [4:47] very fun interview we did with a friend [4:48] of the show guo Rous the founder and CEO [4:51] of versel about really the whole history [4:54] of web development Frameworks and their [4:57] latest and greatest product vzer a [4:59] startup within a startup that lets you [5:01] code web apps from scratch in just [5:04] English instead of a programming [5:05] language yes search aq2 in any e podcast [5:09] player and before we dive in we want to [5:11] briefly thank our presenting partner JP [5:13] Morgan payments yes just like how we say [5:16] every company has a story every company [5:18] story is powered by payments and JP [5:20] Morgan payments is a part of so many of [5:21] their Journeys from seed to IPO or in [5:25] this case uh never being public ever uh [5:29] and Beyond and listeners this is not [5:31] investment advice but um you can invest [5:34] in this and you can invest in many of [5:36] the other great brands that we were [5:38] going to talk about on this episode [5:39] either there's something kind of [5:41] remarkable about the uh companies we [5:43] wish we could invest in but actually we [5:45] can't so this show is for informational [5:47] and entertainment purposes only David [5:50] where do we start our story all right [5:53] well we start as is so often the case [5:55] with these big old European companies [5:58] back not in the last century but even [6:00] the century before that on March 22nd in [6:05] 1881 in kbach Bavaria about 30 miles [6:09] north of nurmberg in present day Germany [6:13] where Hans eard Wilhelm wilsdorf is born [6:17] to young Anna and Johan wilsdorf and you [6:21] might say this sounds like a German name [6:23] Bavaria wasn't a part of Germany right [6:26] well I was just going to get to that [6:28] technically it's not Bavaria anymore [6:30] technically it is part of the German [6:32] Empire but this is a very very recent [6:35] development as the count ovon bismar had [6:38] only just 10 years earlier convinced [6:41] Bavaria to join forces and Unite with [6:44] Prussia to form the Greater German State [6:47] German Empire in the aftermath of the [6:50] Franco Prussian War where they battled [6:52] Napoleon III over in France but as far [6:56] as young Hans and his family are [6:58] concerned they're Bavarian they don't [7:00] identify with this Germany thing this is [7:03] foreign to them they are also Protestant [7:08] not Catholic which puts them in the [7:11] great minority in Bavaria at the time [7:14] now I say all of this deep European [7:17] history here for two reasons one because [7:19] it's sort of a fun story and um calls [7:21] back to our ourz and lvmh episodes and [7:24] it's going to call back very directly to [7:26] those episodes in a minute here but also [7:28] I think it's important to paint paint [7:29] the picture of Hans is even from birth [7:32] he's kind of this consumate Outsider he [7:34] doesn't really fit in in any sort of [7:37] national or religious identity in the [7:41] either established or changing European [7:43] order at the time he doesn't really have [7:44] a country he doesn't really have a [7:46] religion or a people he sort of floats [7:49] between the seams of Europe which Rolex [7:52] itself is going to do as we shall see in [7:54] a very big way yep now back to Young [7:57] Hans and his family his father Johan [8:00] came from a line of successful iron [8:03] mongers and very likely Hans was [8:06] destined to go into this business as [8:08] well however when Hans is 12 years old [8:12] tragedy strikes and both his father and [8:15] his mother die within a couple months of [8:17] each other so he's orphaned just like [8:21] this should sound familiar Ben oh yeah [8:23] Louis Vuitton and dmes this is [8:26] absolutely freaking nuts the founders of [8:29] arguably maybe the three biggest and [8:32] most significant luxury brands in the [8:35] world today were all orphans from the [8:38] 1800s this is wild and I wonder how much [8:41] of a statistical bias there is here if [8:44] we were studying anyone from this era [8:47] how many of them would be orphans [8:48] because of disease and War and yes all [8:51] sorts of stuff just lots of people died [8:53] for lots of reasons yes totally totally [8:56] true but it's just so interesting right [8:58] these Brands I mean much less so Rolex [9:00] but heres lvmh are so steeped in this [9:03] European history and the tradition of [9:05] the nobility but it's actually these [9:07] orphaned Outsiders that founded them [9:10] well I think it's a great Point Rolex [9:12] doesn't share that Heritage at all this [9:14] is not steep to nobility this is not an [9:17] artifact like a leather bag or a saddle [9:20] that any kings ever had when you buy a [9:24] Submariner or a Daytona or even a [9:26] datejust you are not buying Swiss [9:28] history here you are buying 20th century [9:31] modernity as we will get into so in the [9:34] wake of this tragedy Hans and his [9:37] brother and sister are placed in the [9:39] care of his uncles and the uncles decide [9:42] that they are going to sell the family [9:45] iron mongering business to fund sending [9:48] Hans and his siblings off to boarding [9:49] school I see so Hans would later write [9:53] in this amazing document that is [9:55] essentially his autobiography it's the [9:57] first volume of four book set that the [10:00] company published in 1945 for the [10:03] company's 40th anniversary the Ruby [10:05] Jubilee Hans writes our uncles were not [10:08] indifferent to Our Fate nevertheless the [10:11] way in which they made me become [10:13] self-reliant very early in life made me [10:15] acquire the habit of looking after my [10:17] possessions and looking back I believe [10:20] that it is to this that much of My [10:22] Success is do H so Hans goes off to [10:26] boarding school and becomes an excellent [10:28] student there he excels in math and he [10:31] also excels in foreign languages [10:34] particularly English and while he's [10:37] there in boarding school there in [10:39] Bavaria he meets a friend who is from [10:42] Switzerland and he develops an interest [10:44] in that country and he no longer really [10:46] has any family ties or anything to [10:48] Bavaria anymore doesn't really care [10:49] about Germany he's like oh great [10:50] Switzerland seems like a good place I'm [10:53] going to go live there when I graduate [10:55] which he does he moves to Geneva and he [10:58] finds work there first for a large Pearl [11:02] Merchant so this business was buying [11:05] like raw pearls from fishermen and then [11:08] selling them to the famous Swiss [11:10] Jewelers there in Geneva and then he [11:13] joins another local Trading Company in a [11:16] adjacent industry to the jewelry [11:18] business a firm called Kuno corten Kuno [11:21] corten turns out isn't in just any [11:24] industry as far as Switzerland goes they [11:26] are in the industry besides [11:29] banking they're in the watch trade well [11:32] you need something to bank yeah you need [11:34] something to [11:35] bank exactly a country can't just have [11:38] banking as an industry it needs a real [11:39] economy to build banking on top of [11:42] exactly you start with jewelry watches [11:44] then you get into Banking and Kuno [11:46] Corton is actually a major player in the [11:49] watch trade now they are not watch [11:50] makers they are watch exporters so they [11:53] are facilitating the trade of all these [11:57] best in the world Swiss watches out out [11:59] of Switzerland and into other countries [12:01] around the world and at this time this [12:03] is like the late 1890s Kuno is doing [12:06] about a million Swiss Franks worth of [12:08] business a year now I don't know exactly [12:11] what the Swiss frank to US Dollar [12:13] exchange rate was in 1900 but today the [12:16] Swiss frank is stronger than the dollar [12:18] it's about one to one they're pretty [12:19] close so call it a million dollars of [12:21] business a year in the 1890s like this [12:23] is big they're a big player and it's [12:25] important to remember too it's not like [12:27] watches where this little corner of the [12:30] Swiss economy exporting watches was a [12:33] huge part of the Swiss economy and a [12:35] huge employer in the nation yes now [12:39] we're saying watches here it's important [12:40] to note what were watches at the time [12:43] they weren't something you wore on your [12:44] wrist it was not wrist watches because [12:48] basically Hans and Rolex hadn't invented [12:50] that yet they didn't exactly invent it [12:52] but hadn't popularized it yet we're [12:54] talking about pocket watches yes that's [12:56] what the industry was at this time and [12:58] part of the reason is functional pocket [13:00] watches were bigger so the movement to [13:02] accomplish a certain amount of precision [13:04] didn't require as little teeny tiny of [13:07] tools and you had more margin of safety [13:09] in bigger watches and so whenever anyone [13:11] tried to make a watch and put it on the [13:13] wrist at this point in history it was [13:15] usually fragile or really inaccurate or [13:19] actually worn more as jewelry and so [13:21] they actually didn't call them wrist [13:23] watches they called them wristlets and [13:25] they were mostly worn by women wristlets [13:28] yes we'll get more into that later and I [13:30] know you chomping at the bit to give you [13:32] the technical explanation of the [13:35] crazy human craft and Engineering that [13:38] goes into watches it's amazing it's so [13:40] unbelievably cool but back to the Han [13:43] story for the moment so the job that [13:46] young Hans gets here at Kuno turns out [13:49] to be pretty pivotal for him and the [13:51] future of Rolex he is a secretary which [13:56] means that he's answering letters from [13:59] clients all around the world and then [14:02] responding and coordinating with them [14:03] because remember he's really good at [14:05] languages and what is his best language [14:08] English so he's coordinating with most [14:11] of their clients in the British Market [14:15] in the UK and he sits at this really [14:17] interesting choke point of the whole [14:19] industry where he understands how all [14:23] the producers are sort of laid out and [14:24] how the whole value chain works on the [14:26] Swiss side of things he's seeing the [14:29] market prices and price action happen [14:31] for all different types of watches from [14:33] different makers and different parts etc [14:35] etc but he's also getting to know the [14:39] buyers in Britain who are not individual [14:41] people these are retailers these are the [14:43] Jewelers in Britain these are the [14:44] distribution points for watches yep so [14:47] he's getting the perfect business Market [14:50] strategic background distribution [14:52] relationships for going on to ultimately [14:55] found Rolex but it's not just that he [14:59] falls in love with the business of [15:01] watches there he also falls in love with [15:03] the objects and watches themselves in [15:06] their performance so he starts this [15:08] habit of he would take home batches of [15:11] pocket watches at night and he would run [15:14] his own tests for accuracy on them on [15:16] the product that Kuno Corton was trading [15:18] in so he would set them all at the same [15:20] time and let them go overnight and then [15:22] he would check them in the morning how [15:23] much they are disparate from one another [15:26] and check their accuracy and the legend [15:28] goes that one day he gets the idea that [15:31] he's going to take three watches that [15:34] he's found to be quite accurate in this [15:36] whatever this recent batch that he's [15:37] testing his and he's going to go get [15:39] them tested at the local astronomical [15:42] Observatory and have them measure these [15:45] watches according to the strict [15:47] Observatory timekeeping tests which are [15:49] also called chronometer tests so if [15:51] you've ever heard the term chronometer a [15:54] chronometer is a timekeeping piece could [15:56] be a watch could be a larger clock could [15:58] be all sorts of devices that has passed [16:01] these astronomical Observatory tests for [16:04] being accurate enough for Celestial [16:06] navigation yes David I'm looking down at [16:08] this Daytona right now and it says Rolex [16:11] Oyster Perpetual which all three of [16:14] those words we haven't gotten to yet [16:16] superlative chronometer officially [16:19] certified cosmograph a lot of words in [16:22] there that we will get to but at the [16:24] moment where we are is chronometer [16:27] officially certified yeah yes and today [16:30] this is like a oh you know cool that's [16:32] cute your mechanical watch is like [16:34] officially certified that it keeps good [16:36] time back then this is critically [16:38] important Celestial navigation if you're [16:41] involved in anything in shipping the [16:43] maritime trade is critical if you have a [16:47] crappy time piece you're going to go to [16:48] the wrong place because you're using it [16:50] for navigation and so to your point [16:53] Observatory chronometer certification no [16:56] one's doing it for my pocket watch that [16:59] I can set to the local church bell or [17:01] whatever whenever I need to reset it but [17:04] young Hans has this idea he goes and [17:05] does he guess what these three pieces [17:08] that he takes these pocket watches they [17:09] pass the test and they get certified as [17:12] chronometers and he takes them back to [17:13] his boss's at Kuno and they're like whoa [17:16] well [17:18] let's slap that on the tin baby you know [17:23] and it's this aha moment of Kuno and [17:25] then soon the rest of the industry [17:26] realizes oh actually chronometer [17:29] certification on pocket watches helps us [17:31] move product here yep the other thing to [17:34] realize here is we are in an era where [17:38] and this era would last the next 100 [17:41] plus years but an era where having a [17:44] watch is super important yes it's not a [17:48] fashion accessory it's not a nice to [17:51] have without a pocket watch if you are [17:53] leaving your house and moving about in [17:55] the world you're lost it's almost like [17:57] not having your phone today day where [17:59] you feel like I'm floating it's very [18:01] uncomfortable totally it's even more [18:04] than you're saying it's like a [18:06] smartphone in that you need it to [18:08] function but pocket watches are also [18:10] like smartphones today and that they're [18:12] fidget devices if you're out in the [18:14] world and like you're waiting in line or [18:16] you don't know what to do with your [18:17] hands you're in a socially awkward [18:18] situation you know whatever you're take [18:20] your pocket watch out you're going to [18:21] open the clask this is what people did [18:23] it was just so ingrained in everyone's [18:26] day-to-day existence just like [18:28] smartphone is today it's an essential [18:30] tool for moving about the world which [18:32] explains how it's such a huge industry [18:36] that moves the needle for the nation of [18:38] Switzerland and how there's these [18:39] businesses that can be exporting a [18:41] million dollars worth over a hundred [18:43] years ago and why there's so much [18:46] attention being paid to it it's not a [18:48] random accessory it is an essential [18:50] piece of Life a tool totally so after [18:54] working at Kuno for a couple years and [18:57] liasing with the British Market [18:59] in 1903 Hans decides that hey I'm good [19:02] at English I like London I might [19:05] actually want to move there so he moves [19:07] to London at age 22 and he goes to work [19:10] for another watch company there in [19:12] London locally we actually don't know [19:14] the name I don't think anybody has ever [19:16] found the name mm what you and I read [19:18] probably five books between us and [19:20] wasn't any of them yeah he works there [19:22] for two years and he writes two things [19:26] struck me most forcibly about my new [19:29] employers this British watch company on [19:32] the one hand their commercial [19:34] competence and on the other hand their [19:36] lack of specialization I soon gained [19:39] confidence in myself and in 1905 at the [19:41] age of 24 decided to set up in business [19:44] alone feeling that my training and [19:45] education had prepared me so he strikes [19:48] out on his own starts his own watch [19:50] importing company there in London but [19:53] remember the specialization piece [19:54] that'll come back in a sec so Hans is [19:57] out on his own there's one [19:59] problem though which is in order to do [20:03] what he wants to do which is import [20:05] Swiss watches and sell them directly [20:08] under his own Banner where he makes and [20:11] keeps the profits there in London he [20:13] needs some capital in order to finance [20:15] the buy got to place the order yes so [20:18] through his lawyer he gets connected [20:20] with a local man in London named Alfred [20:24] James Davis who has some money to invest [20:27] and say they meet through the lawyer [20:30] they hit it off immediately and decide [20:32] to go into business together and thus in [20:34] 1905 wilsdorf and Davis limited the [20:38] world famous Merchant watch trading firm [20:41] is born and uh yes none of you know [20:44] wisdorf and Davis however wilsdorf and [20:46] Davis limited is Rolex yep as we shall [20:51] see now it's often said that you know if [20:52] you read anything about the history [20:53] people will tell you oh well Davis was [20:56] hans's brother-in-law he married hans's [20:59] younger sister Anna that is true but I [21:03] believe that didn't actually happen [21:04] until after Hans and Alfred went into [21:07] business together I think Anna met Davis [21:11] through Hans but really it is Wills [21:13] dorf's company it's kind of funny that [21:16] Davis's name is on it I kind of get the [21:18] sense he's mostly Capital yeah he's [21:21] there a little bit but it's almost as if [21:23] you know Atari instead of being Atari is [21:26] Bushnell and Valentine that's the [21:28] equivalent here I think that's right and [21:30] obviously they get closer over time as [21:32] they become family when Davis marries [21:35] hans's sister but yeah I think this is [21:37] hans's business he's running it Davis [21:40] trusts him yep and so what is the [21:42] business doing well the business plan [21:45] when they get going is they're going to [21:48] do what Hans has been doing his whole [21:50] career at this point in time which is [21:52] importing Swiss made highest quality in [21:55] the world watches into the London Market [21:58] where there is high demand for them and [22:00] they're not selling directly to [22:02] Consumers right no just like back at [22:04] Kuno Corton the buyers are the retailers [22:07] are the Jewelers no end consumer had any [22:11] idea who made their watch at this point [22:13] in time they would walk into the [22:14] retailers say give me a fine Swiss watch [22:16] sir and the retailer would sell it to [22:18] them and the retailer would take one out [22:20] from the case you look down at the face [22:23] of the watch the face of the watch has [22:25] the Retailer's name on it and you're [22:27] just trusting that the retailer bought a [22:30] good watch from some importer who bought [22:34] a good watch from someone on the Swiss [22:36] side who managed to create a good watch [22:39] by putting a movement in a case and all [22:40] that together now there's a little bit [22:42] of detail in there where sometimes the [22:45] Importer would import a fully built [22:47] watch sometimes the Importer would just [22:49] import a movement and then they would [22:50] import a case differently and then they [22:52] would put together themselves but this [22:54] was the craziest thing that struck me is [22:56] the retailer is the brand on the watch [22:59] at this point in time yes there is no [23:01] brand for the product right so will SF [23:04] and Davis is occupying the spot in the [23:05] value chain where they are importing the [23:07] watches and then selling them to [23:09] retailers to Brand yes now you said [23:12] there a minute ago something really [23:14] important which is there were kind of [23:15] two ways that this would happen you [23:17] would either import fully finished [23:21] watches from Switzerland a whole product [23:24] so to speak and either a trading firm [23:26] like wisdorf and Davis would do this or [23:27] Kuno courton would export it or maybe [23:30] the retailers would buy directly from [23:31] Kuno Corton Etc if they were big enough [23:33] if they were big enough yep what [23:35] willsdorf and Davis are doing is they're [23:37] saying well Hans knows through his time [23:41] at Kuno Corton all the best movement [23:44] makers all the best case makers right he [23:48] operated one click up the value chain [23:50] sort of aggregating on the Swiss side [23:52] exactly so now that he's operating down [23:55] on the Importer level one click down the [23:56] value chain he's like I can still [23:58] aggregate all these producers and start [24:01] building a watch myself yes so he's not [24:04] making anything but he is assembling the [24:07] finished products so he would have watch [24:09] makers there in Britain assemble the [24:12] best movements that he would import from [24:14] Switzerland with the best cases that he [24:16] would find and that was part of his [24:18] value that he's adding to the industry [24:20] here and this is probably an important [24:22] time there is so much lingo in the watch [24:25] industry and we're going to do our very [24:27] best on this episode to mystify it [24:29] movement in laye is the hole inside that [24:33] makes the watch tick and drives the [24:36] hands yep not the dial right correct no [24:40] dial No Hands no case no glass front and [24:47] the movement I think like you said is [24:49] kind of the critical piece absolutely [24:51] that's the hard thing case is important [24:54] dial is important hands are important [24:56] but that's all Aesthetics and as far as [24:58] performance goes 100% movement it's like [25:01] semiconductor production if you're a [25:03] movement maker you're like tsmc here [25:05] right chronometer officially certified [25:07] refers to the movement actually in fact [25:09] only the movements are tested not the [25:11] whole final cased watch not the finished [25:13] watches yes so David who is he importing [25:16] movements from and how does he meet said [25:19] movement maker well that brings us to [25:23] the other half of the Rolex equation [25:26] when Jean agler based in bienen [25:29] Switzerland which is in the mountains of [25:31] the north of the country importantly not [25:34] Geneva yeah not Geneva Geneva is in the [25:37] southwest of the country in Switzerland [25:39] right next to France so agler runs this [25:42] movement Workshop up in what is then a [25:44] tiny little town in the Swiss mountains [25:47] and it turns out that he's actually kind [25:49] of like a generational Talent at watch [25:53] movement making and in particular what [25:55] he's really really really good at is [25:57] making movements that are accurate and [26:00] on par with the highest quality most [26:02] precise most accurate movements out [26:04] there on the market but are also much [26:06] smaller in size he's making miniature [26:08] movements and Hans had gotten to know [26:11] Jean when he was working at Kuno Corton [26:14] and kind of thought like oh hey man this [26:15] guy's a diamond in the rough up there in [26:18] the mountains he's as good or better as [26:20] any movement maker and he's making these [26:22] miniature movements before there's a [26:24] real Market it's almost like he's just [26:26] doing it because it's the hardest thing [26:27] he can think [26:28] totally it's like his hobby horse I'm [26:30] going to push the limits of human [26:32] achievement of how small can I make this [26:33] thing yes I think it's probably known [26:36] and respected in the industry but wasn't [26:38] a large player and Hans is like oh [26:41] actually this guy is my ticket to [26:43] differentiation here I'm keeping his [26:45] address so I can write him a letter when [26:47] I get to when I start my own company [26:49] yeah so here we are at the beginning of [26:51] wisdorf and Davis Hans is importing [26:54] these movements from agler that he's [26:56] putting into cases selling his watches [26:58] here in the UK this is [27:00] 1905 this carries through this [27:04] relationship for the next 99 [27:08] years until Rolex finally Buys agler in [27:13] 2004 where agler is making the movements [27:17] for Rolex watches and I don't think [27:19] there's ever any real formal Arrangement [27:21] here it's basically a handshake deal yep [27:24] that's correct we will make your [27:25] movements handshake deal for 99 years [27:28] yes all of Rolex everything it becomes [27:31] this is the basis of it and so they [27:33] weren't exclusive yet so in 1905 they're [27:37] placing their first order and there's [27:39] already a little bit of a dance that's [27:40] starting to happen where of course the [27:43] front of the watch on the dial is [27:45] unsigned so the retailer can put their [27:47] name there this already is starting to [27:50] rub hods the wrong way he kind of feels [27:52] like these are my watches why do the [27:54] retailer get to put their name on it and [27:56] so he goes to agler and says the ones [27:59] we're going to sell these are willsdorf [28:01] and Davis watches I understand you made [28:03] the movement but we got to Brand it [28:06] somewhere and so he gets agler to buy in [28:08] on this idea that on the movement [28:10] they're going to put a w and d and then [28:13] also inside the case back for whoever [28:16] they're buying the case from they also [28:18] inscribe W and d and so that's the state [28:21] of things here in 1905 and those first [28:24] few years after is there's a w andd on [28:26] the inside case back on the move M but [28:29] not on the face of the watch yep which [28:32] gets into the type of watches that [28:34] they're making here now we're still in [28:35] pocket watch Land the wristwatch Vision [28:39] hasn't really entered hans's brain yet [28:41] even though iger's specialty is these [28:44] small miniature movements so remember [28:46] what Hans said about his earlier British [28:48] employers and their lack of [28:50] specialization he continues in his [28:52] autobiography talking about how he [28:54] decided to do things differently here at [28:56] wisdorf and Davis quote I undertook the [28:59] financial side and management of our [29:01] concern from the very outset our success [29:04] was assured by our fundamental policy to [29:06] trade only in Specialty horological [29:09] Products and especially in new lines the [29:12] first specialty we adopted was the [29:14] traveling watch called a portfolio watch [29:17] cased in the finest quality Leathers [29:20] this line I immediately placed in large [29:21] quantities on the market the range [29:23] covering every possible style and design [29:26] so again we're not wristwatch yet but [29:28] he's like the way that I'm going to [29:30] succeed and break through here is [29:33] through differentiation yes to do [29:34] something different it's like we always [29:36] talk about the most important thing to [29:38] build a huge successful business is to [29:40] do something different and unique that [29:43] people have to come to you for and can't [29:46] go to the commodity markets now that [29:48] doesn't necessarily mean you're right [29:49] yeah cuz he's not right with traveling [29:51] watches we don't tell any of the stories [29:54] here on acquired of all the people who [29:55] wanted to do something extremely unique [29:57] and different and was not what the [29:59] market wanted but it's the classic you [30:02] have to be contrarian and right yeah and [30:05] you know I don't know I guess reading [30:06] what Hans wrote there maybe he was right [30:08] it sounds like the traveling watch was a [30:10] success enough he probably thought it [30:11] was a success at the time yeah so then [30:15] as Legend has it one day shortly after [30:18] starting the company and focusing on [30:20] these travel watches Hans is reading an [30:23] account of the second boore war in South [30:27] Africa man Ben I never knew that all my [30:29] like European European history lessons G [30:32] I tweeted this yesterday I know I know [30:35] who knew that our livelihoods would [30:37] depend on AP European History someday [30:40] that's right anyway Hans is reading an [30:43] account of the second bore war in South [30:46] Africa and he reads that the soldiers [30:49] that had fought had worn wrist watches [30:52] so that they could coordinate their [30:54] movements and their firing times and all [30:56] the troop movements even while they [30:58] holding guns do you know why in [31:00] particular this war had them wearing [31:02] wrist watches oh I don't I just assume [31:05] that the technology had progressed [31:08] enough cuz wrist watches existed at this [31:11] point in time they just weren't thought [31:12] of as serious watches that was part of [31:14] it climate oh yes of course they can't [31:17] wear their jackets and so they can't [31:19] reach into their pocket and grab a [31:21] pocket watch of course because it's hot [31:23] there yep well climate is going to [31:25] become important again here in the [31:26] development of the wristwatch industry [31:29] so the soldiers and officers there would [31:31] use these wrist watches because even [31:32] though they weren't as accurate as [31:34] pocket watches like you said Ben you [31:36] probably weren't wearing a jacket even [31:38] if you were wearing a jacket like if [31:39] you're engaged in battle you're G to [31:41] stop put your gun down take your pocket [31:43] watch out of your vest open the case no [31:47] the axis upon which you evaluate value [31:49] is a different axis than when you're [31:52] hanging out on the streets of London yes [31:54] supposedly as Hans is reading this like [31:57] a bold of lightning he has the key [31:59] Insight well hell it's not just soldiers [32:02] these days it's actually like a lot of [32:04] people in the world that could benefit [32:06] from having an accurate time piece on [32:09] their wrist that they could just turn [32:10] their wrist and look down and look at [32:12] instead of a pocket watch now the funny [32:14] thing is he calls agler maybe he writes [32:18] to igler I don't exactly know he sends [32:19] him a text he places the largest order [32:22] in iger's company history several [32:25] hundred, Swiss Franks for a bunch of [32:27] these tiny movements and the great irony [32:30] of this whole thing is he's kind of [32:32] wrong the time was not right for [32:35] wristwatches yet the bore war was not [32:38] the shove that the world needed to say [32:42] whoa wrist watches the soldiers come [32:45] back from the bore war and it's still [32:47] kind of the wristlets era there's not [32:49] really enough inertia to make it take [32:52] off everywhere now it's kind of okay [32:54] because WIS dorf and Davis is still this [32:56] small company so they don't need that [32:58] big of a market to address to feed the [33:01] needs of the business but it would be [33:03] another 10 years before World War I [33:06] happened and you had this [33:09] incredible unfortunate Tailwind saying [33:11] oh my God we need tons of wristwatches [33:13] now yeah there does start to be a market [33:16] for serious timekeeping wrist watches [33:19] particularly in the far reaches of the [33:22] Empire so Australia South Africa of [33:25] course after the bore war and especially [33:27] India these are places where you're [33:29] probably not wearing a jacket or a vest [33:31] that much so this is the initial seeds [33:35] of the wristwatch market for wisdorf and [33:39] Davis so interesting but Hans is like a [33:42] True Believer at this point in time this [33:44] is going to be the future Way Beyond [33:47] just the Empire people in Britain are [33:49] going to want this too it's obvious to [33:51] him why you wouldn't want to have to [33:54] reach into your vest to bring out your [33:56] pocket watch he's like a zealot he's a [33:58] total Zealot so he's like all right [34:00] we've got this killer product we're [34:02] first to Market we're basically going to [34:03] invent this whole Market we need a name [34:06] for the product we need something that's [34:08] going to make consumers know to ask for [34:11] this product for our watches we need to [34:14] coin the term for the industry and he's [34:16] inspired here by the Kodak camera yes [34:19] which by then had been around for a [34:21] while and was made not by the Kodak [34:24] company but by the Eastman company and [34:27] Kodak I believe was the first invented [34:30] product brand name and it was a name [34:33] that meant nothing yeah I think that's [34:35] right and it intentionally meant nothing [34:37] it was easy to pronounce it was easy to [34:39] say you could see it once it was very [34:41] memorable it worked in any language it [34:43] was five letters it had a great sound to [34:46] it so supposedly Eastman came up with [34:49] the name Kodak with his mother using an [34:52] anagram set and he said that there were [34:54] three principal Concepts that he was [34:56] looking for in the name one it should be [34:58] short easy to pronounce it should work [35:00] in any language and it should not [35:02] resemble any other name or be associated [35:04] with anything else yep anyway Hans takes [35:07] inspiration from this and he decides [35:09] that he needs a Kodak for his new [35:12] wristwatch and he writes I tried [35:14] combining the letters of the alphabet in [35:16] every possible way this gave some [35:18] hundred names but none of them felt [35:20] quite right it was one morning when I [35:23] was sitting on the upper level of a [35:24] double-decker bus powered at that time [35:26] by horses driving alongside cheapside in [35:30] London that a good Genie whispered in my [35:33] ear [35:37] Rolex he's good at mythmaking many [35:39] startups are named this way today [35:41] totally and a few days after this [35:43] fruitful Journey the Rolex brand was [35:46] filed and then officially registered in [35:48] Switzerland by wisdorf and Davis now [35:53] this is a brand name this is not yet the [35:55] company name it's Rolex by willsdorf and [35:58] Davis so they trademark it in [35:59] Switzerland a couple years later they [36:00] trademark it in London and you know it's [36:02] short it's easily pronounceable it's [36:05] memorable it's the same in every [36:07] language but there is this one other [36:09] characteristic that makes it really [36:11] perfect which is when you hear [36:14] Rolex you can kind of think about [36:17] rolling a crown of a watch you know that [36:20] little knob that's sticking out from it [36:23] that you use to wind the Clock IT [36:25] channels that and there's also the X [36:29] kind of has a timekeeping feel to it [36:31] also it almost is like the tick tick [36:33] tick tick tick tick tick the Rolex feels [36:36] like maybe you're turning the crown [36:37] until it hits the end or something like [36:40] that you can Intuit the type of product [36:42] that would be called Rolex yes totally [36:46] so Hans is like okay great I've got my [36:49] Kodak name got the brand invent this new [36:52] category how am I going to legitimize [36:55] this with customers well I have this one [36:58] cool trick that I've used before exactly [37:01] I had the one cool [37:03] trick I'm going to do the one cool trick [37:06] just with wrist watches instead of [37:07] pocket watches in 1910 he sends the [37:11] first wristwatch movement to the school [37:14] of horology in Switzerland to be awarded [37:17] the world's first wristwatch chronometer [37:21] rating which is a big deal because [37:23] people just did not think these things [37:24] were accurate before and without egler [37:26] they kind of weren't exactly now getting [37:29] certified at the school of horology in [37:31] Switzerland is nice and all but this [37:34] isn't an astronomical Observatory this [37:36] doesn't carry the same weight as [37:39] something like uh oh say the Royal [37:42] Observatory there in [37:44] England so Hans and agler keep working [37:48] on these products refining the movements [37:50] agler is getting better and better at [37:51] making wristwatch movements that are [37:54] truly great 1910 goes by 1911 goes by [37:57] we're here in 1912 wisdorf asks agler [38:01] specifically hey can you produce a [38:03] wristwatch capable of achieving an [38:06] observatory timekeeping [38:08] certificate and David as you mentioned [38:11] the Royal Observatory and igler says let [38:14] me try and let me get to work it still [38:16] takes a couple more years so he works [38:18] for two years and then finally in early [38:21] summer 1914 Hans takes one of iger's [38:25] movements to the Q Royal Observatory in [38:29] England Kew Q for testing now [38:33] Q is not only a well-respected [38:37] Observatory for astronomical and [38:40] specifically time piece testing there in [38:42] England it's where all the Marine [38:45] chronometers for the British royal Navy [38:47] are tested the British royal Navy at [38:49] this point in time we're talking the [38:50] British Empire the greatest Navy in the [38:52] world and it takes 45 days they put it [38:55] through the ringer to make sure that [38:57] this Marine chronometer is going to get [38:59] our soldiers our Sailors where they need [39:02] to go and even more than that it is of [39:05] course affiliated with the other great [39:08] observatory in England the Greenwich [39:12] Royal Observatory yes which you know was [39:14] where Greenwich meantime was invented we [39:16] were talking like probably the most [39:18] important timekeeping institution in the [39:22] world have you been there David to [39:24] Greenwich no no I want to go have you [39:26] there's an awesome some museum with the [39:28] history of timekeeping when I spent some [39:30] time in London a summer gez 15 years ago [39:33] I went and spent a day there it was [39:35] amazing oh we got to go yeah we'll stop [39:37] by on our way to Geneva perfect so again [39:41] here we are it's early summer [39:44] 1914 Hans has submitted this wristwatch [39:48] movement to q and after the 45-day [39:50] rigorous battery of testing on July 15th [39:55] 1914 it comes back it is passed and it [40:00] receives the First Class A Precision [40:02] certificate known as the QA ke [40:06] w-a certification ever awarded to a [40:10] wristwatch caus for great great [40:13] celebration and Fanfare all around the [40:16] world except that it is 3 weeks after [40:20] World War I starts yeah so between the [40:23] time that Hans had brought the watch in [40:25] for testing and when it finally gets [40:27] gets the certification Arch Duke France [40:29] Ferdinand is assassinated in Bosnia by a [40:31] Serbian nationalist the whole rats nest [40:34] of European alliances gets triggered and [40:35] next thing you know the whole world is [40:38] at War on the one hand nobody cares [40:40] about watches there's a war breaking out [40:42] on the other hand everybody cares about [40:43] watching right exactly exactly so World [40:47] War I is truly the first Crucible moment [40:51] for Rolex because it's the best thing [40:54] that ever happened to the company in the [40:56] industry it the whole world care about [40:59] wrist watches also it's very directly [41:02] the worst thing because all of a sudden [41:04] anti-german sentiment in Britain goes [41:06] through the roof totally insane there's [41:08] all sorts of horrible propaganda I [41:10] didn't realize this till now do you know [41:12] why British people call German Shepherds [41:15] alsatians yeah because they don't want [41:17] to call them German it's because of this [41:19] yeah there's all sorts of racism against [41:21] Germans in England and in Britain which [41:23] is utterly ridiculous because the [41:25] British royal family was [41:28] German so Queen Victoria married Prince [41:31] Albert Prince Albert was a German Prince [41:34] the whole British royal family was [41:36] German this is when they changed their [41:37] name to Windsor because before Windsor [41:40] their family name was saxa cobber go [41:44] which isn't going to play well when [41:45] you're at war against the Germans no no [41:47] no no no no speaking of things that [41:48] aren't going to play well when you're at [41:50] war against the Germans you're not [41:51] building a strong consumer brand in [41:54] Britain in [41:55] 1914 called wilsdorf I mean if the [41:58] British royal family is rebranding [42:00] changing their name yeah wilsdorf and [42:03] Davis also needs to Rebrand despite the [42:05] fact that at this point wisdorf is a [42:07] naturalized British Citizen and feels no [42:10] affiliation to Germany he really doesn't [42:13] ever in his life consider himself German [42:15] totally totally but this is the birth of [42:19] the company Rolex so in 1915 they [42:23] renamed the whole company after the [42:24] brand name Rolex and the Rolex Watch [42:26] Company limited is founded well David I [42:30] was about to ask you how does this [42:32] become a Swiss watch company and the [42:35] answer is definitely right around this [42:37] time in World War I but before we tell [42:40] that story now is a great time to think [42:43] our presenting partner JP Morgan [42:45] payments just like Rolex JP Morgan story [42:47] spans Generations in the pursuit of [42:49] Excellence reliability and Perpetual [42:52] Improvement oh Perpetual I like what you [42:54] did there hey you like that last year J [42:57] Morgan invested $17 billion in [42:59] technology across the firm that's an [43:01] incredible number and in the payments [43:03] business that fuels the stability and [43:05] monetization of the core payment [43:07] infrastructure while also advancing the [43:09] end-to-end payments experiences and [43:11] novel use cases for clients this durable [43:13] Foundation has been critical for JP [43:15] Morgan payments and enables them to [43:17] layer on strategic Partnerships as a [43:19] part of their Innovation philosophy they [43:21] were the first bank to publish a partner [43:22] Network and it's now one of the very [43:24] largest payments ecosystems containing [43:26] hundred hundreds of third party [43:27] Integrations spanning virtually every [43:30] industry and use case yep listeners [43:32] might remember us talking all about this [43:34] last season it essentially connects JP [43:36] Morgan's clients to the broader payments [43:38] and Technology ecosystem such as [43:40] treasury management erps point of sale [43:43] Hardware payments gateways and more [43:45] think of it like a B2B marketplace where [43:47] Merchants can set up shop and sell to [43:49] customers while someone 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accept [44:37] local payment methods in one integration [44:40] and in one contract yep they've made it [44:42] easier than ever to search and learn [44:44] about Partners on their website and for [44:46] clients ultimately what you're getting [44:48] here is access to the best-in-class [44:49] tools and end to end partner connections [44:51] to help scale your business in a way [44:53] that really only JP Morgan can listeners [44:56] can check out the partner Network and [44:58] learn more by going to jpmorgan.com [45:01] acquired yes all right David so how are [45:04] we getting to Switzerland yeah how does [45:06] Rolex become a Swiss watchmaking company [45:10] well obviously the anti-german sentiment [45:13] was part of it I think if that were the [45:15] only Factor Rolex probably would have [45:17] stayed in England yeah at this point [45:19] wilsdorf is a naturalized citizen his [45:22] wife is British the company is called [45:24] Rolex now or they're working on it it [45:27] would have been fine yeah however the [45:29] other reason that World War II in [45:31] Britain is bad for business for the new [45:34] Rolex company is that Britain imposes a [45:37] 33% import tax on watches early on in [45:42] the war that's going to kill your [45:44] importing business well it's interesting [45:46] I read that and yeah it's going to make [45:48] it tougher it's crippling but it's still [45:51] you could run a business you could [45:52] figure out how to pass those prices [45:54] along to customers that's often what [45:55] happens in the case of teror [45:57] but one year later at the beginning of [46:00] 1916 the British government puts the [46:02] nail in the coffin they completely [46:04] banned the import of all gold and silver [46:07] they made it impossible for wilsdorf to [46:10] build this business based out of Britain [46:12] because a lot of times he's actually [46:14] exporting the watches for sale in [46:16] colonies or he's importing a movement [46:18] he's importing a case or maybe he's [46:20] taking a local British case putting it [46:22] together making a Rolex watch and then [46:24] it's getting shipped out somewhere else [46:25] and he's sitting there thinking I can't [46:27] get these precious metals and I'm paying [46:29] out the nose for these movements this is [46:31] stupid to run my business here yep and I [46:34] assume then as now rolex's margins in [46:39] the precious metal watches are way way [46:41] way higher than in nonprecious metal [46:44] watches it's insane a $10,000 watch [46:46] becomes a $30,000 watch when you add [46:49] gold to it or platinum or whatever yep [46:51] the Delta between it's like apple [46:53] selling memory exactly exactly yes [46:57] interestingly in the hype of 2020 to [47:00] 2022 the precious metals were actually [47:04] easier to come by as a customer because [47:06] there was so much less demand to go buy [47:08] a 3050 $100,000 watch that those would [47:11] kind of be lying around while the steel [47:13] ones were flying off the shelves and [47:15] there were huge lines for them totally [47:17] so on the back of this in 1916 Rolex [47:21] first moves the Assembly of the watches [47:24] to bienn in the Swiss Mountainside near [47:27] igler is which makes sense they set up a [47:29] office and basically say hey you're [47:32] making the movements next door we're [47:33] going to put a case on them right here [47:35] yep and then be able to export from [47:36] Switzerland now to countries all over [47:39] the world and not go through Britain [47:40] first ultimately after the war in 1919 [47:44] Hans moves both himself and the official [47:46] company headquarters to Geneva where of [47:49] course it still is to this day and even [47:52] to this day this is crazy design sales [47:55] marketing and I think final assembly all [47:59] happen in Geneva while production of the [48:02] movement still happens up in the [48:03] mountains in bienn it's super [48:05] interesting it would make sense if you [48:07] are Britain to throw on some terrorists [48:08] to finance your War you got to finance [48:11] it somehow and at the same time it also [48:14] makes sense if you're a business [48:15] operating in Britain in this time to say [48:17] and I'm moving to Switzerland y but [48:20] there's this alternative reason to move [48:22] the business to Switzerland and Hans [48:24] knows it if he's going to build a [48:26] globally renowned watch company he wants [48:29] to do it in Switzerland this company [48:31] becomes Rolex of Geneva not just Rolex [48:35] again I'm going to look at this watch [48:37] all the way down at the bottom Swiss [48:39] made don't you forget it or you look at [48:42] a PCH Philip genive right there on the [48:45] face of every pek Philip watch they are [48:48] extremely proud of this Jive I love it [48:51] jev Ben [48:54] jev oh oh I'm going to hear about that [48:57] one aren't I it's okay it's okay we're [49:00] Ugly Americans here okay so then the [49:02] question is why does Geneva have this [49:06] Prestige why is Switzerland an amazing [49:08] place for watchmaking well David will [49:11] you uh indulge me in let me wind the [49:13] clock back I actually thought you were [49:15] going to start the timeline for this [49:17] episode back in the 1500s I was shocked [49:19] that you only started it in the 1800s so [49:21] perhaps this is a good time to go and [49:23] tell the history of watchmaking in [49:25] Switzerland story by all means okay [49:28] great a lot of this comes from Mark [49:30] Bridge who is the founder and CEO of at [49:33] presentes a Marketplace for unique [49:35] jewelry from independent artist Mark is [49:37] one of David and my very best friends [49:39] and insanely coincidentally and lucky [49:41] for us and you listeners he wrote his [49:43] master's thesis 20 years ago on the [49:46] Renaissance of the Swiss Watch industry [49:48] amazing he sent me a copy of it we're [49:50] going to link to it in the show notes [49:52] it's awesome to have this resource [49:54] available just very conveniently from [49:56] one our best friends so all the way back [49:59] in the 1500s Geneva was a center of [50:01] activity for the Protestant Christian [50:03] World led by John Calvin and if you know [50:06] anything about Calvinism it is uh very [50:09] focused on moral uprightness yes the [50:12] Protestant work ethic yes one of these [50:15] tenants was Banning frivolous things [50:17] like ornamental jewelry local goldsmiths [50:21] and Jewelers instead focused on [50:24] watchmaking since watches serve a real [50:27] function in the world and were not [50:28] frivolous it was sort of this exception [50:30] to the rule if you had that skill set [50:33] there's also human beings are human [50:34] beings no matter what rules you impose [50:36] on them it's like you know life finds a [50:38] way status always finds a way that's [50:41] 100% right so you've got the rise of [50:45] Calvinism along with that religious [50:47] reason that's sort of causing this local [50:49] pivot of Industries you have one of [50:52] climate too there are these long harsh [50:54] Winters and so an industry that could be [50:57] done indoors in a small physical [50:59] footprint was perfect if you're going to [51:02] go pick a profession out of a hat to [51:04] have in Switzerland mountainous country [51:06] long cold winter like this is a great [51:08] one and especially because it's so [51:09] valuable at this point in time you can [51:12] become an important player in Europe in [51:14] the European economy making something [51:16] that you can make in your climate third [51:19] there's a cultural reason so David are [51:22] you familiar with the term [51:24] itbl ooh no [51:27] are you sure it's supposed to be Swiss [51:28] not French I was going to [51:30] say I've been to Geneva and I've been to [51:32] other places in Switzerland but I know [51:34] very little about its culture and [51:36] history talk to me about terar I know [51:38] exactly what you're talking about but I [51:40] don't know okay well it's Swiss for [51:44] establishment basically but Whata means [51:47] in this context is that it's this system [51:51] this sort of economic system that they [51:53] established in the area of the Jura [51:55] mountains where very small independent [51:58] companies often one to 10 people could [52:01] focus on something small like a single [52:03] component and then you'd have dozens of [52:06] these small companies work together to [52:08] create the finished product it's almost [52:10] like a distributed manufacturing system [52:12] ah so this is where agler comes from [52:15] this is why he's got the workshop in the [52:17] mountains yep exactly and so with this [52:20] specialization of Labor in small [52:22] companies you could get really really [52:24] good at your tiny part making say [52:26] hairsprings that we'll talk about later [52:28] or these essential elements of watch [52:30] movements these tiny companies by [52:34] artisanal Craftsmen these very labor [52:36] intensive companies got really really [52:39] really good and pretty efficient at [52:40] making their one thing so that's kind of [52:44] the backdrop of how the Swiss are [52:46] producing things and lastly in the late [52:49] 1500s the French had been rising as a [52:53] watchmaking Powerhouse and when the [52:55] balance of power changed in France and [52:57] the Catholics came to power the French [52:59] hugenot refugees who had talents in [53:02] jewelry and metal work and watchmaking [53:04] fled to Geneva yeah these are the [53:06] Protestants that goty kicked out of [53:07] France that's exactly right and so the [53:09] Protestant Safe Haven of Geneva they [53:11] brought their watchmaking expertise or [53:13] if they didn't have watchmaking [53:14] expertise that's all they could really [53:16] do if they were Jewelers or or metal [53:19] workers since you can't make anything [53:20] too shiny and too offputting y so this [53:25] is how Switzer and gets the reputation [53:28] as the watchmaking capital of the world [53:31] yeah exactly basically this creates [53:33] centuries of momentum especially in this [53:36] distributed aabis system of how Swiss [53:40] watches were made I kind of think about [53:42] it as this beautiful blend of French [53:45] Beauty and appreciation for aesthetic [53:49] and swiss Precision yeah well I mean it [53:52] sounds like Switzerland itself it's a [53:53] blend of French Beauty and German [53:55] precision I love it well that's [53:58] definitely one big reason why Hans is [54:01] like okay we got to move Rolex to Geneva [54:04] to participate in this tradition as [54:06] we're now going to be selling to the [54:07] world but the other reason is after [54:09] World War I they're like well we're [54:10] going to be selling to the world now [54:12] Britain is still going to be our largest [54:13] market likely but every country in the [54:16] world is fighting or at least every [54:18] European country has troops fighting in [54:20] World War I they're all seeing the [54:21] benefits of the wristwatch this is going [54:23] to be way way way bigger after [54:26] World War I I need to be able to serve [54:29] the whole world so they want to be in a [54:31] neutral country yeah Y and he just [54:34] experience like oh Britain puts these [54:35] tariffs on and gosh well I didn't really [54:38] have a market for Rolexes in Germany [54:40] before but if I did I wouldn't have been [54:41] able to sell in Germany and like I don't [54:43] want that to happen in the future who's [54:44] not going to put on a big tariff to [54:46] finance a war Switzerland Switzerland [54:49] yeah super interesting you know what [54:51] else happens in 1919 well now that we've [54:54] set up shop next to agler for putting [54:57] their movements in our cases it's time [55:00] for us to get a little bit closer so [55:02] Rolex and agler arranged for a deal [55:05] where in 1919 1920 armman egler who's [55:09] the son of the founder Jean buys shares [55:12] in Rolex unclear what the purchase price [55:14] was that seems to have been lost to [55:16] history and joins the board so he owns [55:19] about [55:20] 15% and so the board is wilsdorf Davis [55:23] and agler there's a second part of the [55:25] deal which is Rolex actually buys shares [55:28] in agler too and this one's less talked [55:30] about but there were two companies that [55:32] were big purchasers of the movements [55:36] it's Rolex and Gruen and both of them [55:39] were watchmakers Gruen I think was [55:41] American was their second biggest client [55:43] and both of them bought igler shares [55:46] also yeah cuz Rolex did not focus on the [55:48] American Market until after World War I [55:51] correct so the companies are a little [55:54] bit more joined at the hip but still not [55:55] an exclus iive partnership yep and like [55:59] we said before I believe still even [56:01] though there's this Equity relationship [56:04] there's no formal contract governing the [56:06] provision of movements here it's crazy [56:09] but you know it's in both their best [56:10] interest to keep it going of course so [56:13] here we are now World War I is over [56:16] we've had the chat GP moment shall we [56:18] say for wristwatches all these soldiers [56:21] from countries all over Europe and the [56:22] World experience the power of having [56:25] accurate watch on your wrist they go [56:27] home to their civilian lives they want [56:28] to bring it into their life and who [56:31] makes the best and most accurate [56:35] wristwatch chronometer timekeeping [56:37] pieces in the world Rolex and so of [56:39] course they're going to buy Rolex no [56:41] that's not true no no that is not what [56:44] they're going to do it's Omega right [56:46] well I think it's lots of companies I [56:48] mean basically the market went from the [56:51] very early adopters in the British [56:53] dominions far-flung reaches of the [56:55] British Empire [56:57] before to now like all of a sudden it's [56:59] this giant European wide Market most of [57:03] which has they have no idea about Rolex [57:05] like Rolex whatever I don't know what [57:06] Rolex is like I've never heard of such [57:07] thing before so I think it was like [57:08] everybody was now rushing in and even [57:11] though Rolex had this history probably [57:12] had the best product it just didn't [57:14] matter right there was just massive [57:16] demand for this new product category of [57:18] which there were many good options and [57:21] also there was massive demand but it was [57:23] kind of like search engines before [57:25] Google product still kind of sucked you [57:28] know even really in many ways the Rolex [57:31] product Rolex probably kept better time [57:35] than competitors they were QA certified [57:38] QA certified right but if you're wearing [57:41] a wristwatch it's a lot more exposed to [57:44] the world than your pocket watch and you [57:48] talked a little bit about how complex [57:50] and delicate these movements are and [57:53] especially in a miniature movement that [57:55] goes into a wrist watch any dust any [57:58] water any humidity that gets into the [58:00] case is going to jam up your movement [58:03] and your watch is going to fail yep so I [58:06] finally like had this aha moment when [58:07] I'm doing the research for this episode [58:10] I'd always thought it's just ridiculous [58:12] you know you go look at the watch market [58:14] now rolex's all the other brands they're [58:16] like waterproof to 57,000 million meters [58:20] like all I was just like what there's no [58:22] depth that exists David Rosenthal watch [58:24] a fish andado ladies and gentlemen [58:26] exactly but like why who cares and I was [58:29] like oh this is why waterproof watches [58:32] are a big thing it's not about water [58:34] necessarily it's actually dust more than [58:36] water it's dust it's humidity it's if [58:38] you're waterproof that's shorthand for [58:40] saying you're element proof you're [58:43] durable nothing is going to get inside [58:45] this watch and mess up your movement if [58:47] water can't get in you could subject it [58:49] in 100 meters of Still Water and no [58:52] impurities would get in right you could [58:54] throw it to the bottom of the ocean and [58:56] it'll keep time forever you know etc etc [58:58] like oh this is why this is important [59:01] yeah and servicing was a big deal like [59:04] you had to get your watch serviced often [59:06] and the more dust and humidity and stuff [59:08] got in there like it might just break [59:10] entirely yes exactly great I like where [59:12] you're going David because there's [59:14] basically three big pillars of what [59:16] makes a Rolex a Rolex or frankly what [59:17] makes a good mechanical watch a good [59:19] mechanical watch there's precise so [59:21] there's officially certified chronometer [59:24] and there's the other two what's the [59:26] second one oyster yeah so like I said [59:29] there's demand for these products but [59:30] they all suck because they're not [59:32] element proof well oyster is Rolex [59:36] marketing speak for waterproof so [59:38] there's this great race among high-end [59:42] Swiss watchmakers to now produce a [59:44] waterproof wrist watch and a Swiss case [59:49] making company called Francis bomgardner [59:53] which supplied cases to Patek and you [59:55] know many other great watch brands in [59:57] the early 1920s they invent a new case [60:00] style called the Hermetic you'll notice [60:03] that your Rolex does not say hermetic [60:05] the way they do it is they put the watch [60:08] case inside another watch case oh that's [60:11] right this is the weird hinge thing [60:13] right it's like a scuba helmet they take [60:15] a watch and they put it inside a SCUBA [60:17] helmet that is waterproof so it works it [60:20] does make watches water and element [60:23] proof but it's big it's ugly and most [60:27] importantly you have to unscrew the [60:30] outside case the seal and take out the [60:33] inside case every day in order to wind [60:35] the watch right cuz famously the crown [60:38] is the most dangerous entry point for [60:41] water or dust so you can't leave the [60:43] crown sticking out of the Hermetic case [60:45] or it would defeat the purpose yep so [60:47] that's the state of play through the [60:50] early 20s and Rolex gets into this too [60:54] they buy cases from bomgardner and they [60:57] make these hermetic watches you can go [60:59] find them you see pictures of them in [61:00] collector's books it's got a hinge on [61:02] the left side and a little clasp on the [61:03] right side that goes around the crown [61:05] yep and then this is so awesome this is [61:08] like a forest Mars moment from Hans in [61:11] October [61:12] 1925 two Swiss casemakers file a patent [61:18] for a moistureproof winding stem and [61:21] button B just like you're saying it's [61:24] the crown of the watch the wind ing [61:26] system and the button where water is [61:28] most on dust or most susceptible to [61:30] getting in to yep and mind you Rolex has [61:33] been dying to solve this problem they [61:35] had at least three failed attempts to [61:38] create a waterproof seal inh house yes [61:41] the whole industry has and Hans like [61:44] Forest Mars reads the Swiss patent [61:49] filing register religiously every day he [61:52] is reading all of the patents that are [61:55] getting filed in Switzerland so he sees [61:58] this patent get filed and he's like this [62:00] is it I got to get this right now so he [62:02] goes to the two guys that invented this [62:05] and he buys the patent and makes it [62:07] exclusive to Rolex this turns out that [62:09] this is the key component to making a [62:12] waterproof mechanical wrist watch that [62:14] doesn't need to be put in a jar yep and [62:17] when I was reading this I thought oh man [62:20] Rolex didn't actually invent the oyster [62:21] case they just watched someone else do [62:23] it but that doesn't really matter they [62:25] saw that this was absolutely essential [62:28] and willor jumped right on the [62:29] opportunity and said who cares who came [62:31] up with the idea we're in the position [62:33] to commercialize it to roll it out [62:35] across all of our watches I need to [62:37] strike first this is his genius he's not [62:39] a watch maker and Rolex were not watch [62:43] makers until they finally bought igler [62:45] in 2004 hans's genius is he sees the [62:50] vision for where the Market's going he [62:52] recognizes talent and Innovation and he [62:54] pulls it together and he makes it [62:56] commercially viable and marketable yep [62:58] in a way that like this patent got filed [63:00] in the Swiss patent register any of the [63:02] other watch companies who desperately [63:04] wanted to solve this problem could have [63:06] seen it too but he jumped on it yep I [63:09] mean really he's like the Mark [63:10] Zuckerberg of his time oh that's a good [63:13] analogy yeah me this Instagram you know [63:15] and then copying stories from snap Hans [63:18] doesn't care he's like I'm gonna Market [63:19] this and I'm going to make this the most [63:21] successful thing possible I don't care [63:22] that we didn't invent it h it needs to [63:25] be in our product yeah that's [63:27] interesting for anyone who's a watch [63:29] person who's sort of wondering what [63:31] actually was in the patent it's [63:33] essentially for the screw down Crown the [63:35] Hermetic seal on the all oyster watches [63:39] going forward and of course it's named [63:41] the oyster because oysters seal when [63:43] they're closed it's a perfect thing to [63:45] name it after everything works on a [63:47] threaded system so the back of the watch [63:50] screws into the middle part of the case [63:54] and then the Crown can screwed out also [63:57] so you have these airtight watertight [63:59] threads that keep any impurities out so [64:02] in July [64:04] 1926 Hans and Rolex goes and registers [64:07] the product name oyster this is really [64:10] really big and H he's like I am going to [64:13] go big everybody in the whole world [64:16] needs to know the Rolex name needs to [64:18] know that we are the exclusive owners of [64:21] the oyster system he prepares to spend [64:25] in Britain alone annual expenditures of [64:29] over [64:30] 10,000 just on Advertising for the [64:34] oyster models dude knows how to build a [64:35] brand he's already naming components [64:39] he's not just marketing Rolex this is [64:42] Rolex the only watch that has oyster yes [64:46] oyster [64:47] technology a18 biotic [64:51] yes really the parallels to Apple are [64:54] just like incredible ah ah four hours [64:57] from now I was gonna make that point [65:00] but so he's prepared to spend all this [65:02] money he's got the product but he's like [65:05] we got to do a big launch I don't want [65:06] to just buy regular ads in the newspaper [65:10] here so in 1927 towards the end of the [65:12] year the timing is right and that brings [65:15] us to a young British woman named [65:18] Mercedes glight now glates was a [65:21] secretary and bilingual stenographer in [65:24] London much like young Hans was back at [65:27] Kuno who happened to have a uh sort of [65:31] unique hobby of endurance swimming in [65:36] the river temps in her free time which [65:39] is insanely cold very cold and I assume [65:42] even back then quite polluted but uh so [65:46] be it and she was so good at endurance [65:49] swimming apparently she would swim for [65:50] like 10 hours at a time in the river [65:53] temps and so in October of 19 27 she [65:56] decided that she was going to attempt to [65:58] swim across the English Channel maybe [66:02] even more cold definitely cold [66:04] definitely pretty choppy and she did she [66:06] became the first British woman to [66:09] successfully do so that year in October [66:12] 1927 however a couple days after she [66:15] completed her swim another woman emerged [66:18] and claimed to have also swam the [66:21] channel but have done it [66:24] faster and now it turns out that that [66:26] actually was a hoax and Mercedes knew it [66:28] was a hoax but in order to reprove [66:30] herself she decided to Stage a [66:33] Vindication swim that gets hotly covered [66:36] by the Press which mind you she's doing [66:38] this Vindication swim she's already [66:40] spent 15 hours swimming across the [66:43] channel yeah Miracle she's still alive [66:46] at this point Hans is like oh this is [66:49] our moment this is exactly the spectacle [66:51] that we need so he comes up with the [66:53] brilliant marketing stunt [66:56] of he is going to get Mercedes to do [66:59] this Vindication swim while wearing a [67:03] new Rolex Oyster model and uh what Rolex [67:07] doesn't talk about to these days is a [67:09] footnote to history of it wasn't [67:11] actually on her wrist was on a like a [67:12] lanyard around her neck yeah it was on a [67:15] small chain that she wore around her [67:17] neck but nonetheless this is an [67:19] incredible stunt nothing ruins a good [67:21] story like data let's just smooth it [67:22] over like the truth yes this is still [67:26] featured prominently on the Rolex [67:28] website today mercedes's photo is [67:30] everywhere but it doesn't matter I mean [67:32] at the end of the day who cares if it [67:33] was on her wrist or not yeah she also [67:35] doesn't actually make it but that [67:37] doesn't matter either that's the other [67:40] crazy thing I think it was a especially [67:42] cold day or especially choppy or [67:43] something she makes it 10 of the 15 [67:45] hours so the design of the test is a [67:48] little bit arbitrary this is a watch [67:50] while it wasn't on the wrist and it [67:52] didn't make it all the way from England [67:53] to France it was still in the water a [67:55] long time for 10 hours yeah pretty good [67:58] um product testimonial shall we say for [68:01] a testimony so Hans after this event [68:05] happens the next day he buys the front [68:10] page of the Daily Mail newspaper which [68:13] is a nationally syndicated newspaper in [68:16] Britain at the time I didn't realize you [68:19] could do this back in the day you could [68:20] actually buy the front page as an [68:23] advertisement I think it was common I [68:25] think was a while before the front page [68:27] was actually dedicated to editorial and [68:29] early on it was very common for it to be [68:31] a full page ad yeah so Hans does this [68:34] and proclaims the success and [68:36] announcement of the world's first [68:39] waterproof wristwatch fully enclosed in [68:43] its own case without a second hermetic [68:45] seal around it and the triumphant launch [68:48] of the Rolex Oyster so this is how Rolex [68:51] tells the story after I had heard this [68:54] told a few different times I sort of [68:56] expected to see this full page ad [68:59] written in a certain way it is kind of [69:02] buried maybe this is what the [69:04] advertising style was back in the day [69:06] but the big words are not watch survives [69:09] English Channel swim the big words are [69:11] Rolex Oyster and it says Rolex [69:13] introduces for the first time the [69:16] greatest Triumph in watchmaking okay I [69:18] still don't know what it is then I see a [69:20] picture of a woman's face then it says [69:22] send for this colored brochure it's free [69:25] telling you to send in for more [69:27] information then there's four sketches [69:30] of the different watch faces you can get [69:32] of the Rolex Oyster and then it says the [69:35] Wonder watch that defies the elements [69:37] there's words all over the place you [69:40] finally finely get to the tiniest text [69:43] in the entire thing maybe the second [69:44] tiniest font in this little corner it [69:47] says moisture proof waterproof heat [69:50] proof vibration proof coldproof dust [69:53] proof either Rolex hadn't found their [69:56] groove in advertising yet or maybe [69:59] people just read a lot more words back [70:01] then but if you put this up today our [70:04] ticktock ified brains would be like [70:06] don't care next there's way too many [70:08] words and they completely bury the lead [70:10] that she did a Channel swim with this [70:12] thing and it survived it's hard to know [70:15] how much of this is just the [70:16] state-ofthe-art in advertising at the [70:18] time versus Hans designed and wrote All [70:21] That himself so one of his maniacal [70:24] control things was I believe up until he [70:28] died or pretty close to it he did all [70:31] the creative for all the advertising oh [70:33] I didn't realize that yeah we'll get to [70:35] it later but they do bring on the Jay [70:37] Walter Thompson agency before he dies [70:39] probably the rest of the company's like [70:41] all right all right Hans we got to [70:43] professionalize a little bit here and [70:44] that's when they get extremely good is [70:46] in the 60s extremely good yes but I [70:49] think it's fair to say there's two [70:51] interesting takeaways here one they [70:53] hadn't found their groove in advertising [70:55] yet but two advertising hadn't really [70:58] been professionalized in a way that we [71:00] would see in the madman era totally [71:02] we're still before World War II here [71:05] we're not yet in the modern world yep [71:08] the other thing that's really [71:09] interesting is there was something about [71:11] this that was sitting with me too doing [71:13] this research this is a major major [71:15] major moment the Mercedes GLS moment the [71:18] first brand ambassador of Rolex it's [71:23] interesting that the moment and the [71:26] person that Hans chose for this launch [71:29] was a woman super interesting back in [71:32] 1927 super interesting yes the [71:35] wristwatch was a ladies item before [71:37] World War I but after World War I really [71:39] I would think the big Market is the [71:41] men's Market it's interesting I dug into [71:43] it in this era Rolex still was primarily [71:47] a ladies product the men's Market was [71:49] growing but if you look at their product [71:53] cataloges really up until till World War [71:56] II ladies models outnumbered men's [71:59] models 2 to one whoa these are the [72:01] little like Prince watches yep yep and [72:04] definitely hans's Vision was like a [72:06] wrist watches for everybody men and [72:08] women but it's interesting that they [72:10] were really women's focused and then we [72:11] did a little more digging and asked some [72:13] friends and even to this day I believe [72:17] the market of buyers for Rolex watches [72:21] is basically 50/50 men and women which [72:24] is insane I would have guessed that [72:26] especially because much of my research [72:28] was lurking on the Rolex and watches [72:31] subreddits which are very particular [72:34] type of dude and it comes across as a [72:36] very male thing at least the way that [72:39] I'm exposed to watches I mean you you [72:40] read the amazing journalism about [72:43] watches on hinki and the whole world [72:46] around appreciating watches it's kind of [72:49] male focused it's like a Porche 911 [72:52] right it's amazing that rolex's history [72:55] indexes so heavily to women and that [72:57] even today they move a lot of units to [73:00] women even though that's not where I [73:02] come across Rolex and my dayto day well [73:04] it's certainly not where the Enthusiast [73:05] Market is focused yes but it's one of [73:07] the really unique things about Rolex so [73:10] many of the other really really high-end [73:12] watch brands with CTI as an exception I [73:16] think really are men's Brands oh yes [73:20] whereas Rolex yeah it really is 50/50 [73:23] amazing all right so that's Mercedes [73:24] glad that's the oyster story and that [73:27] really is a huge watershed moment for [73:30] Rolex and for the wristwatch industry [73:32] and she's effectively the first [73:33] testimony I'm not sure they'd come up [73:35] with that terminology yet but this is [73:38] something that they would lean heavily [73:39] into as their means of marketing in the [73:43] future they would hate you calling it a [73:45] brand ambassador yes partner it's Rolex [73:47] partner is what they call it no I think [73:49] it's testimony I'm pretty sure it's this [73:51] like very particular word that they [73:53] wanted to sort of invent and have to [73:55] themselves and it's different than [73:57] influencer marketing it's different than [73:59] the way that someone appears in a [74:01] advertising a perfume for a 5-year deal [74:03] I think it's this very long-term [74:05] oriented you are a part of the brand and [74:09] you are a part of the brand kind of for [74:10] your lifetime flashing all the way for [74:12] it's Roger Federer is the purest [74:15] embodiment of this today but that is to [74:17] come in the future it turns out though [74:19] back to the product of the wristwatch [74:22] oyster was huge but had a [74:26] problem Ben like you said the key to [74:29] making it work you didn't have to have [74:32] the whole scuba jar that you enclose the [74:34] whole watch in but the crown had to [74:37] screw down the crown had to screw down [74:39] like a jar and so that meant that when [74:42] you went to go wind the watch you had to [74:44] unscrew the crown pull it out wind the [74:48] watch expose it to the elements and then [74:49] screw it back in well if you know [74:52] anything about humans probably at least [74:54] half the humans on on the planet are not [74:56] going to be exactly fastidious about [74:58] screwing their crown back in yes there [75:02] are three pillars to what makes this a [75:05] breakout product that enables the [75:07] wristwatch to really have its iPhone [75:09] moment and that third of being Perpetual [75:12] of being [75:13] self-winding is the magic yes and these [75:16] things are so intrinsically linked and I [75:18] didn't realize until getting so deep [75:20] into the research self-winding watches [75:24] are kind of cool on their own but just [75:25] like before I was like waterproof [75:27] whatever why is that important self- [75:29] winding yeah seems cool but how hard is [75:31] it to manually wind your watch that's [75:32] what people were doing with pocket [75:34] watches for centuries it's actually [75:37] because it's tied to the oyster and the [75:40] screw down mechanism if you forget to [75:42] screw your crown back down you lose the [75:44] element proofness of the oyster yes oh [75:48] okay I can't wait the way that the [75:51] Perpetual movement works is totally [75:55] genius but before we do that we want to [75:58] thank good friend of the show fundrise [76:01] the team at fundrise is awesome they are [76:03] CEO Ben Miller and tons of the folks [76:05] there are huge acquired listeners just [76:07] like all of you and since we first [76:09] started working together three years ago [76:10] fundrise itself has gone through quite a [76:12] transformation longtime listeners may [76:14] remember that fundrise launched its move [76:17] into Venture investing via an acquired [76:19] sponsorship back in 2022 and at the time [76:22] fundrise was primarily known as the Us's [76:25] largest real estate investment platform [76:27] for retail investors and it wasn't [76:29] obvious that this crazy idea that they [76:31] had to bring democratized investing to [76:34] venture capital would work and fast [76:36] forward today incredibly they have [76:38] demonstrated that they can break into [76:40] Venture investing in a big way Ben [76:42] Miller and fundrise have invested in [76:44] data bricks anthropic canva andil ramp [76:47] fellow Friends of the show vanta service [76:49] Titan which just went public in December [76:51] and had a successful IPO yep it's [76:54] genuinely aw what fundrise has done [76:56] which is something that many people have [76:58] tried over the years but no one else has [77:00] actually been able to accomplish in [77:02] Venture they've taken a retail platform [77:04] that any American can invest in and [77:06] gotten pre-ipo access to some of the [77:09] best private companies in the world [77:11] they've created access to all the value [77:13] creation that's been locked in these [77:14] private companies over the past decade [77:16] plus as growth companies have been [77:18] delaying their IPOs and staying private [77:20] longer yep so when service Titan went [77:22] public thanks to fundrise tens of [77:24] thousands of reg investors got to [77:25] celebrate alongside VC's LPS and their [77:28] employees yep just awesome we'll be [77:31] talking about fundrise all season long [77:33] and you can go check out their full [77:34] portfolio that Ben and the fundrise team [77:36] are building over at fundrise.com [77:39] Venture and if you're a growth stage [77:41] founder looking for a great series C or [77:43] later investor get in touch with them [77:45] and tell them that Ben and David sent [77:46] you this is a paid endorsement for [77:48] fundrise and all Investments can lead to [77:50] loss our thanks to [77:52] fundrise so back to oyster and leading [77:55] into the need for self-winding and the [77:57] Perpetual element of Rolex if you can [78:01] create a self-winding wristatch well all [78:03] of a sudden the element proofness of the [78:07] oyster works fine for everybody because [78:09] nobody actually has to unscrew the crown [78:11] you never have to pop out the battery [78:13] and put in another one you never have to [78:15] charge your Apple watch you name the [78:17] analogy but you just set it and forget [78:19] it yep you walk around all day your [78:21] watch keeps perfect time is and it's [78:24] waterproof and you never need to wind it [78:27] sounds like an amazing product who [78:28] doesn't want that that's a Steve Jobs [78:30] like product right there okay before [78:33] going into the Nuance of how rolex's [78:37] particular self-winding mechanism works [78:40] I think this is a good time to explain [78:43] how mechanical watches work at all what [78:46] the key components are and frankly it's [78:49] like Alchemy is one of the coolest [78:50] things I've ever done to prepare for an [78:53] acquired episode was go learn how a [78:55] mechanical watch works at a high level [78:57] you need two major components to make a [79:00] Time piece first a way to store energy [79:03] and second a way to release that energy [79:05] in a predictable and precise interval [79:08] which seems like oh yeah of course you [79:10] could do that these days with you know a [79:12] battery and electronics but imagine [79:14] doing that without a battery and without [79:16] electronics exactly so yes on that first [79:19] one storing energy there is something [79:21] called a mainspring do you read about [79:24] this in the resarch Arch David yep a [79:26] main spring can store potential energy [79:29] so imagine a foot skinny piece of metal [79:31] that you wind real tight and you stuff [79:34] into something called a barrel this [79:35] looks like a film strip that's kind of [79:37] stuffed inside a film canister that [79:40] you'd see a stack of canisters in a [79:42] projector room at a movie theater that's [79:44] sort of what you should imagine a real [79:45] tightly wound main spring inside that [79:48] Barrel now interestingly to your point [79:51] David this kind of begs the question [79:53] what is a battery right yes I said a [79:56] battery technically that is a battery [79:58] right it's like a mechanical battery [80:00] since it's a way to store potential [80:02] energy to be used later now amazingly [80:05] the way a mechanical watch works these [80:08] days is so energy efficient that the [80:10] mainspring can store on the order of [80:13] three days of potential energy to tick [80:16] the watch forward it's amazing amazing [80:19] okay so moving on obviously this isn't [80:21] sufficient on its own if you just [80:23] release the main spring the barrel it [80:25] would spin around real fast it would [80:27] make all the gears Spin and you'd let [80:28] all the energy out at once break the [80:30] watch yes so you need something to [80:32] control the energy release from that [80:35] main spring and do it in slow fixed time [80:38] intervals all mechanically yes you need [80:41] something to make the watch tick heyo [80:44] yes watch makers call this an escapement [80:47] now an escapement in a mechanical watch [80:50] has two key components to harness that [80:53] potential energy from the mainspring one [80:56] is a pallet Fork come back to that and [80:59] two is something called the [81:01] balance so how does a pallet Fork work [81:05] well a pallet Fork looks like a little [81:07] tea with teeth on the edges of the top [81:10] of the te and it moves back and forth a [81:13] tick and a talk like the pendulum of a [81:16] grandfather clock and as it flicks back [81:18] and forth it moves all the gears on the [81:22] watch forward one tick or One Beat and [81:25] there's this element that uh this maybe [81:28] several steps down the chain where it's [81:31] actually usually like the hour movement [81:34] right that then drives all the other [81:36] movements off of that kind of depends on [81:39] the watch and What complications are in [81:41] it things like that but yeah the [81:42] important thing to know is when one beat [81:45] happens when the pallet Fork enables [81:47] everything to move forward One Beat what [81:50] it's really doing is allowing what's [81:52] called The Escape wheel to turn one [81:54] click and that drives whatever else is [81:57] in the gear train for that particular [82:00] watch gotcha which some watches is you [82:03] know just hours and minutes some watches [82:05] is hours and minutes and seconds some [82:06] watches is date day moon phase what you [82:10] had for breakfast Etc right and with [82:13] these complications which are the sort [82:15] of features is really amazing because [82:17] you can sort of think through what the [82:18] algorithm would be to make such a [82:21] complication but when you're thinking [82:22] through it you're thinking sort of like [82:23] a programmer you're saying well if this [82:26] then that you know if the date is 31 [82:28] days yeah these are not computers right [82:30] all of the logic is encoded mechanically [82:33] in a gear train it's beautiful yeah so [82:37] where we left off here is our escapement [82:40] where we've got the pallet fork and it's [82:42] this little T and it's a tick and a talk [82:45] it flicks back and forth and moves the [82:47] gears all forward one tick so how do you [82:49] get it to tick back and forth what is [82:51] the mechanism by which this pallet Fork [82:54] goes Tik Tok Tik Tok Tik Tok Tik Tock [82:56] this is where we introduce a big hero of [82:58] the whole mechanical watch Story the [83:00] balance and the balance also has two [83:03] parts there's a balance wheel and a [83:07] hairspring and these two things are [83:09] stuck together around the same center [83:11] point so picture the wheel of a bike [83:14] that that would be the balance wheel [83:15] kind of like a hula hoop and then the [83:17] gears go around the same axle on a bike [83:21] you know you can imagine that you've [83:22] seen the rear wheel of a bike in this [83:24] analogy those gears are the hairspring [83:28] and the outer wheel is the balance wheel [83:31] so that's what this component kind of [83:32] looks like the hairspring looks really [83:35] cool it is another coiled up piece of [83:38] metal although it's much looser and more [83:40] fluid than the tightly wound main spring [83:43] that we talked about earlier unlike [83:45] everything else that is incredibly tight [83:48] inside a watch this component the [83:50] balance almost floats and it moves with [83:54] really low friction it's weird cuz it's [83:56] the opposite of everything else that's [83:58] in the whole watch and the way it works [84:00] is the hairspring spins really fast in [84:04] one direction and for anyone who's ever [84:06] taken a spring and tried to uncoil it [84:08] you know you kind of note that it only [84:10] goes so far and then it wants to go back [84:12] to its resting position and then you try [84:13] to go the other direction and tighten it [84:15] a little bit and that doesn't work [84:16] either and it wants to go back to its [84:17] natural resting position that's what's [84:20] happening here so you've got the [84:23] hairspring which spins really fast in [84:25] one direction and then the energy that [84:28] it has stored is overcome by the [84:30] mechanical resistance of unwinding the [84:32] spring so it stops and then it spins [84:34] real fast in the other direction and [84:36] this cycle goes back and forth spinning [84:39] back and forth tick and talk and [84:41] flicking that pallet Fork back and forth [84:44] to continually release one little [84:46] interval of energy and one little [84:49] advance of the whole gear train it is [84:52] beautiful amazing you can totally see [84:55] why for the right kind of person this is [84:58] like a Porche 911 or like it's just [85:00] catnip you can't get enough of this [85:02] that's exactly right and you know you [85:04] end up with fancy names and proprietary [85:06] things that Rolex makes in the far [85:08] future called a paracom hairspring that [85:10] has these amazing renders and animations [85:13] and videos of how it works it's gorgeous [85:16] now this happens really fast this isn't [85:18] like I just described it where you go [85:21] really far in One Direction and then you [85:22] run out of energy and then you come back [85:24] this happens three four five six times [85:27] per second depending on the watch and [85:29] that's if you hold a watch up to your [85:30] ear and you [85:32] hear these beats that's what you're [85:34] hearing so the pallet Fork drives that [85:37] whole gear train releasing energy that [85:39] powers the hands and all the other [85:40] complications the day the date Etc at [85:42] exactly the right pace so when you take [85:44] a step back and you look at it all the [85:46] craziest thing is that it depends on the [85:49] exact physical properties of the metals [85:52] that are used the time is literally kept [85:55] by the physical laws of the universe [85:58] elasticity tensile strength inertia [86:01] potential energy stored by specific [86:03] materials and they have this down to [86:05] such a precise science today that [86:07] watches keep time certified chronometers [86:10] keep time within 2 seconds per day [86:14] Bonkers it's awesome I just named four [86:18] parts of a watch there are 200 Parts [86:20] this is an oversimplification but kind [86:22] of the general concept of how a watch [86:25] works yeah the other parts are also [86:27] amazing I mean things like there are [86:30] jewels in the watch because all of these [86:33] gears need to turn on things that create [86:35] friction and so you need extremely low [86:38] friction things and well it turns out [86:39] that like actually rubies and sapphires [86:41] that are milled into little nuts are the [86:44] best way to do that and so they're [86:46] actual Jewel Stones inside your watch [86:49] that are being used for a mechanical [86:51] purpose and because Jewels can be really [86:54] hard minerals and you don't want these [86:56] things to wear out and so when you're [86:58] slapping something back and forth six [86:59] times per second you want to make sure [87:02] that I mean most Rolex watches don't [87:04] need to go in for service until every I [87:06] don't know once a decade it's crazy that [87:09] these things just don't wear out yeah I [87:11] mean gosh the Daytona I'm wearing right [87:12] now I don't think has ever been serviced [87:15] and it's at least 15 years old if not [87:18] more than that and keeps time perfectly [87:21] it's so cool and this is a 500 year old [87:25] art the idea of the mainspring that [87:28] applies energy to a escapement that has [87:31] a balance wheel and a hairspring to [87:33] oscillate it back and forth this isn't [87:35] new every piece of digital technology [87:38] heck most analog Technologies are [87:41] invented after this totally so to bring [87:44] us back to the Perpetual on your Rolex [87:47] watch you can imagine that adding this [87:50] element of selfwinding [87:52] to the insane complexity that has been [87:55] developed over Centuries with extreme [87:58] tolerances that are already in these [88:00] watch movements not exactly a trivial [88:03] thing to do you can't just code it up in [88:04] software no and in particular what we're [88:07] talking about here is remember I talked [88:09] about the main spring that storees 3 [88:10] days worth of energy inside the barrel [88:12] all coiled up there's a ton of [88:14] resistance on that I mean if you think [88:16] about if you pop open a crown on a watch [88:18] and you go to turn it with your thumb [88:20] it's kind of hard to turn and so if [88:22] you're going to come up with a [88:23] self-winding mechanism you need some way [88:26] in which you are using mechanical [88:28] advantage to wind something that's [88:31] already wound really tight even tighter [88:35] yes so here we are in the late 20s right [88:39] around this time a British watch [88:43] inventor named John Harwood comes up [88:48] with an automatic system for watches now [88:52] interestingly that was n his end goal he [88:55] was trying to create a waterproof system [88:58] just like Rolex was and the way that he [89:02] went about it was he said oh yeah like [89:04] we were talking about it's the winding [89:07] crown that is the weakest link in the [89:09] element proofness of the watch what if I [89:12] just start by eliminating the winding [89:14] Crown can I do that and supposedly he [89:17] gets inspired One Day by watching [89:19] children play on a seesaw and that gives [89:21] him the idea for his method of how he [89:24] creates something called The Hammer [89:26] system of a hammer going up and down and [89:28] hitting different ends inside the watch [89:30] as the wrist moves around you could [89:32] imagine that turning a crank crank crank [89:35] crank crank yeah so he invents this [89:39] system and just like uh his Swiss [89:42] counterparts who invented what became [89:44] the oyster system under Rolex he patents [89:46] it now what he decides to do is rather [89:50] than making a watch out of this he's [89:53] going to create a company that's just an [89:57] IP company and he's going to license [89:59] this self-winding IP to other [90:02] watchmakers huh which he does and a [90:04] couple watchmakers out there take him up [90:06] on it and incorporate it into their [90:08] products however it doesn't prove too [90:12] popular in the [90:14] marketplace because a consequence of how [90:17] he designed the [90:18] system the manual winding capability and [90:22] the crown is eliminated enti [90:25] so if your watch stops if you don't wear [90:28] it and you lose the charge in the main [90:30] spring good luck getting it going again [90:32] you got to wear it for days or whatever [90:34] to just get the energy back in there and [90:36] then you can set the time set the time [90:38] oh interesting so it's a pretty big flaw [90:41] in this watch but because of how the [90:45] patent was granted at least in the UK he [90:48] and his company end up holding the [90:51] rights to all self-winding watch [90:56] technology wow that is Broad in Britain [90:59] yeah no matter what the method is or at [91:01] least that's my understanding brutal so [91:04] Hans of course in Rolex sees this he [91:08] knows he needs an automatic system for [91:11] the oyster to really unlock the [91:12] potential of the product and fully break [91:15] the wristwatch product for the [91:16] marketplace here but his hands are tied [91:19] he can't do anything at least in Britain [91:21] as long as Harwood has this p [91:24] and Hans knows that ultimately the [91:26] method that Harwood uses is not good [91:29] he's not going to license from Harwood [91:31] because he knows it's an inferior [91:34] implementation yep and then [91:37] fortunately fate strikes and the market [91:40] does its thing and in 1929 harwood's [91:43] company goes bankrupt probably aided [91:45] Along by the stock market crash of 1929 [91:48] and the entering into the Great [91:49] Depression Etc so finally the door is [91:52] now open for Hans and Rolex to complete [91:55] the product here yep and while we're [91:57] here in 1929 just a quick reference [91:59] point for folks there was an article [92:01] published at this time that said you [92:03] could get a Rolex for as little as [92:05] $25 even if you inflation adjust that [92:08] it's like 450 bucks today or for as high [92:11] as $1,000 which is$ 18,000 rolex's top [92:15] of their line today is a lot more than [92:17] $188,000 and the bottom of their line is [92:19] a lot more than $450 but that gives you [92:22] a sense of the type of wealth you would [92:24] need in order to purchase a Rolex at [92:27] this point in history it was a [92:29] meaningful purchase but not a purchase [92:32] reserved for only the Elite Class [92:35] definitely not Rolex at this point is [92:38] not a luxury brand correct it's going to [92:41] transform into one over the ensuing [92:43] decades but no now you know Hans was [92:46] really really focused and his genius and [92:49] contribution to the field was on [92:51] creating the product of the wristwatch [92:54] and he wanted the wristwatch to be on [92:57] every wrist in the world yep which he [93:00] achieved so here we are in the early 30s [93:03] after a couple years of work Rolex [93:05] finally cracks it and patents their own [93:08] rotor quote unquote self-winding system [93:12] which still to this day is the primary [93:15] method of self-winding across the entire [93:17] industry this is a Perpetual Rotor at [93:21] the back of the watch case that spins [93:23] around both directions and captures [93:25] kinetic energy as the wear moves their [93:28] wrist around and importantly unlike the [93:30] hammer movement it spins 360 freely in [93:33] either direction so it's not hitting [93:35] anything yep one of the other problems [93:37] with the hardwood system was when the [93:40] hammer struck each end it made a noise [93:42] oh really yeah yeah you'd wear your [93:44] watch and It Go like clack clack clack [93:46] clack clack one of the initial marketing [93:49] points for the rotor system the [93:51] Perpetual system that Rolex comes out [93:53] with is the silent this of they call it [93:56] the silent self-winding system oh that's [93:59] really interesting and it's genius you [94:01] know you can imagine I'm sure people [94:02] have seen videos or photos of a [94:04] self-winding watch imagine a disc that [94:07] sits around a center point and then you [94:11] cut off half the disc and so what [94:14] happens is whenever you're swinging your [94:16] wrist around or because it's a near [94:18] frictionless system whenever you tilt [94:20] the watch at all the heavy side of the [94:22] rotor Falls down due to gravity to [94:25] whatever side is lower and so you're [94:27] just constantly all day inadvertently [94:30] spinning this Perpetual rotor around and [94:33] around and around and using that to wind [94:36] the main spring yep it's an incredible [94:39] Innovation and feet of engineering [94:41] stacked on top of all these other [94:43] incredible Feats of engineering that go [94:45] into mechanical watches when they first [94:47] start you know you're adding a new layer [94:49] to the movement when you do this in the [94:51] back of the watch it makes the watch [94:54] back protrude a little bit oh the bubble [94:56] back yeah yeah yeah these early oyster [94:59] perpetuals that are first launched into [95:01] the market are known by collectors as [95:03] Bubble Backs now because the back of [95:05] them sticks out a little bit onto the [95:06] wrist off of the lugs it's so cool and [95:09] the other fun thing about this is it is [95:11] legitimately an invention by Rolex [95:13] Oyster was licensed the credit for how [95:15] accurate they were was really all agler [95:17] Innovation this is the first time we're [95:19] really seeing Rolex [95:21] R&D figure out some brand new [95:24] breakthrough contribution to the watch [95:26] World yep and once this is in place [95:30] these are the three key pillars of Rolex [95:35] technology and really all mechanical [95:37] wristwatch technology of quality from [95:39] this point forward you've got the [95:41] accuracy the chronometer Observatory [95:44] certified you've got waterproofness [95:47] element proofness via the oyster and now [95:49] you've got self-winding with the [95:51] Perpetual Oyster Perpetual here here it [95:53] is that's all here yep so in 1934 they [95:59] launched the full system the Oyster [96:01] Perpetual chronometer the Bubble Backs [96:03] known by collectors and for the first [96:07] time they [96:09] introduce a new look for the watches a [96:14] two-tone mix of Steel and gold for these [96:18] new oyster perpetuals that they call [96:22] rasur really rolls off the tug right [96:25] there on your wrist [96:26] David right there not on my Daytona but [96:29] it is on my datejust this is the golden [96:31] steel mix that is now just an iconic [96:34] Rolex look and that's where that center [96:37] link is the gold and the outer two links [96:39] are the steel yep now you're talking [96:41] about the bracelet there bracelets for a [96:44] long long long time are made by third [96:45] party companies Rolex contracts them out [96:48] but that look even goes onto the case [96:51] itself oh okay the bracelet usually [96:53] Echoes the case but combining gold and [96:56] steel within one watch ENC casement was [97:00] a new look shall we say from Rolex at [97:03] this time you know what else kind of [97:04] carries through to today which is kind [97:05] of interesting Rolex and just most tool [97:08] watches have fluted bezels the fluidness [97:11] is because it makes it easier to grip so [97:13] when you need to screw the back off that [97:16] was the original reason for fluting was [97:18] to give you a screw head effectively to [97:20] get leverage to pop it off yes love it [97:23] so okay while we're in the early 30s [97:26] just to Breeze us through a bunch of [97:27] other interesting stuff that's happening [97:29] the first time the crown the logo the [97:32] fivepoint crown starts appearing is [97:35] 1931 1931 was a weird year because Rolex [97:39] was just starting to figure out this [97:42] perfect product mix and at the same time [97:44] the world is heaved into a great [97:45] depression and the British pound is [97:48] devalued so exports out of Britain drop [97:51] by 2/3 [97:53] crisis happens so Rolex is looking to [97:56] internationally diversify so they open [97:58] new offices in Paris Buenos Aries and [98:01] Milan they organize these trips to South [98:04] America the West Indies China Japan [98:07] they're really trying to figure out how [98:08] do we stabilize things while the world [98:10] is in crisis but they've got the right [98:12] product in Market yep I feel like [98:15] there's an old um Sequoia saying or at [98:17] least a Mike meritz saying that [98:19] recessions are the best time to innovate [98:22] cuz coming out of the recession you're [98:24] going to have the best product ready to [98:25] hit the gas right and fewer competitors [98:28] yep exactly I will say very [98:29] interestingly in 1932 Omega released a [98:33] waterproof watch which is I don't know [98:35] half a decade after Rolex this is [98:37] considered to be the world's first dive [98:39] watch no one talks about this today you [98:41] hear dive watch you think Rolex but [98:43] Omega had the first dive watch you think [98:45] Submariner yeah oh I've got some really [98:48] really really fun World War II dive [98:49] watch stuff in a sec oh great but before [98:51] we get to World War II okay in 1936 I [98:55] feel like this is a big moment and kind [98:57] of exactly what you were saying as your [99:00] competitors fall off a cliff due to [99:02] economic hardship There's an opportunity [99:04] if you have the right product that's [99:06] working well in the market to kind of [99:07] consolidate power this is when Rolex [99:11] goes to egler and says hey we want to [99:13] take all of your production and so Gruen [99:16] stops buying movements from agler this [99:19] is where I think Rolex may have bought [99:21] the shares back from igler but again we [99:22] don't know in will never know cuz no one [99:24] at Rolex will ever talk about that and [99:26] this is also when agler adds Rolex to [99:29] its name the agler manufacturer of Rolex [99:33] watches yes so take us into World War II [99:37] at the beginning of the war in 1940 [99:40] remember Rolex is in Switzerland [99:43] exporting to the UK which was still by [99:45] far their biggest Market gets cut off [99:49] supply lines from Central Europe to the [99:52] UK are cut off after France Falls and so [99:56] Rolex and all the other Swiss watch [99:58] makers are like well shoot okay if we [100:01] can't get to England we got to go find [100:04] other markets to sell to it's like the [100:06] beginning of Co when you know all these [100:08] companies were making up other products [100:10] and doing all sorts of stuff this is my [100:13] very favorite sidebar piece of trivia oh [100:17] I have no idea where you're going so do [100:19] you know what Rolex did in Italy during [100:22] this time [100:23] I have no idea they're casting about [100:25] they're trying to find something their [100:28] retail partner in Italy gets a contract [100:32] from the Italian Navy to supply watches [100:35] to their divers and so this Italian [100:38] retail partner comes to Rolex and it's [100:40] like hey we got a contract for dive [100:42] watches can you make dive watches for us [100:44] H and Rolex is like yeah sure we can do [100:48] that we sitting on our hands here at our [100:50] factories which is funny because this is [100:51] like a decade and a half before the [100:53] Submariner yes yes yes yes this is the [100:56] first dive watch that Rolex makes can [100:58] you guess the name of the Italian retail [101:00] partner oh I feel like it's going to be [101:03] a I don't know car company no no no it's [101:06] even more on the nose this is Panerai [101:09] this is the panai watch Rolex makes the [101:12] panai watch so you know anybody who [101:13] knows panai famous you know very Art [101:16] Deco style dive watch they have two main [101:18] models now the luminor and the radio Mir [101:21] yeah panai was a retailer before World [101:23] War II they weren't a watchmaker whoa [101:26] and then after the war panai kept going [101:29] making these watches isn't that amazing [101:31] totally amazing and this also [101:33] underscores another reason why [101:35] Switzerland was such a watchmaking [101:36] Powerhouse this is a very engineering [101:39] heavy industrial thing and they didn't [101:42] have to devote any resources to the war [101:45] because they were completely neutral and [101:47] so all of their Crafts People and [101:50] Machinists and everything can keep [101:51] making watches yep and so here they are [101:53] selling to the Italian Navy on the axis [101:57] side meanwhile the thing that they're [101:59] most focused on is trying to figure out [102:00] some way to start re-exporting to [102:02] Britain selling to their old main Market [102:05] on the Allied side they do figure out [102:08] later in 1940 how to get watches back [102:10] into Britain they sort of launder them [102:13] first through Spain and Portugal and [102:15] then through the straet of jalter get up [102:17] to Britain huh this becomes critical [102:22] because what is World War II that World [102:24] War I was I mean World War I made the [102:26] market for the wristwatch right but [102:28] World War II made the Precision [102:32] wristatch Market super important if [102:35] you're a soldier in the trenches in [102:37] World War I yeah you need to coordinate [102:39] movements and time and whatnot if you're [102:41] a military service member in World War [102:43] II it is a very technical War involving [102:46] a lot of Technology involving airplanes [102:49] involving aircraft carriers and [102:51] synchronized attacks all sorts of things [102:53] tanks synchronized attacks all this [102:54] stuff stealth so the air Battle of [102:56] Britain you know is such a key moment in [102:59] the war key theater all of these British [103:02] royal Air Force pilots they're all [103:04] wearing Rolex watches because at this [103:06] point Rolex make the best wristwatch is [103:10] the most accurate the most weatherproof [103:12] to all the elements you know you're [103:14] going through all sorts of pressure [103:15] changes going up going down you know [103:17] these cabins quote unquote if you could [103:18] call them that of World War II fighter [103:20] planes there's no pressurization in [103:23] there these watches need to be able to [103:26] withstand a lot of elements usually [103:28] you're navigating by them you might be [103:30] flying in the dark wow super super [103:33] important stuff again I would push back [103:36] on it was just I would suspect Omega is [103:39] the leading brand at this time Omega was [103:42] thriving in the 40s 50s even into the [103:44] 60s in the Swiss Watch world yes that is [103:47] definitely true Rolex weren't the only [103:49] ones that were selling to both sides [103:52] here hm but nonetheless World War II is [103:56] really changing the nature of what you [103:59] need out of a wristatch [104:01] and air battles are maybe the most [104:03] visceral but then you start to think [104:05] about all the other stuff that went into [104:07] World War II there's radio [104:09] communications there's radar there's [104:11] early Computing there's nuclear weapons [104:14] and Technology coming out of that [104:16] there's scientists that are building all [104:17] these things and time is like a really [104:20] really important element for this stuff [104:22] so you've really got this birth of a new [104:25] military use case but then soon to be [104:27] transitioned to professional need for [104:30] watches and for time in the world H so [104:34] interesting well coming out of the war [104:37] is really when Rolex starts to figure [104:40] out their product lineup I mean we [104:42] talked about oh they had the perfect [104:43] product at the perfect time with this [104:45] Oyster Perpetual officially certified [104:48] chronograph well what that looked like [104:51] in product form was all kinds of crap [104:55] they all said that and that's how they [104:57] all worked but the cases were everything [104:59] you could imagine it's not like you [105:01] could browse on their website and see we [105:03] make these six main families of watches [105:05] with these sub variations underneath it [105:08] was far from it you look at these old [105:10] advertisements and catalogs and you're [105:12] like I don't even know what that thing's [105:13] called because it just looks so [105:15] different than everything else as [105:17] they're coming out of the war this is [105:19] when they're starting to figure out oh a [105:21] standardized product lineup and not [105:23] quite yet but soon we're going to build [105:25] brand around each one of these things [105:28] and who it's for and what it says about [105:31] you if you wear this type of watch yes [105:34] you are foreshadowing tool watches or [105:36] sport watches a watch for a specific [105:38] technical use case or more accurately a [105:41] watch that says something about you as [105:44] the [105:45] wearer that is the legacy of World War [105:47] II to come on the product side but first [105:49] just on the market side as soon as the [105:52] war is over [105:53] there's no more European market Europe [105:55] is in shambles oh but you know what [105:59] Market there is is [106:03] America yeah you know who didn't have [106:04] their cities all just destroyed and [106:06] bombed to Oblivion and has disposable [106:08] income and g. returning home yep you [106:11] know who is a top the New World Order [106:13] now at least on the capitalist side I [106:16] don't think Communists were buying a lot [106:17] of Rolexes I'm sure there's some crazy [106:19] stories about Black Market communist [106:22] dealers of Rolexes to Russia post World [106:24] War II I'm sure that happened there must [106:27] be I'm pretty sure Castro famously loved [106:30] Rolexes I think he even wore two there's [106:33] like some photos of him where he's [106:34] wearing two [106:35] Rolexes amazing [106:38] amazing hang I'm looking nothing screams [106:41] communism like multiple Rolexes on your [106:43] wrist here it is he's [106:45] wearing I think it's a Rolex GMT and a [106:48] Submariner on the same wrist yes he [106:51] referred to one as a up in case the [106:53] first stops working but that's extremely [106:55] unlikely I suspect it's to keep Moscow [106:57] time or he just wanted to wear two [106:59] Rolexes on his wrist cuz he could yeah [107:01] right exactly okay well the nonblack [107:04] market for Rolex is after the war if [107:07] you're gonna go somewhere you're going [107:09] to go to America and Hans and the [107:12] company devise just about the most [107:15] genius you know three putt scheme to get [107:18] there imaginable three putt [107:21] scheme get this [107:23] so in 1945 Rolex would never three [107:27] putt Tiger Woods [107:29] wouldn't Rolex brand testimony yep okay [107:33] so 1945 right after the war ends is also [107:36] the 40th anniversary of the founding of [107:39] wilsdorf and Davis the Ruby Jubilee of [107:41] the company for the occasion Rolex [107:45] launches their finest model yet the date [107:49] just and this is the first modern Rolex [107:53] still an iconic watch sold by the [107:55] company today yep it's just beautiful [107:57] I've got one here in front of me for a [107:59] lot of people if they don't picture a [108:01] Submariner when you hear Rolex they [108:03] picture a date just or a Daytona but [108:05] we'll get to that yeah and launched [108:08] alongside the date just is the Jubilee [108:10] bracelet which is the you know iconic [108:12] beaded Rolex bracelet we all know now [108:14] they name it the Jubilee Hans you [108:17] remember he wants to get into the [108:18] American Market he initially wanted to [108:19] call it the victory bracelet but uh his [108:23] Swiss colleagues were like um that's not [108:25] very Swiss we are [108:27] [Laughter] [108:30] neutral so it becomes the Jubilee [108:33] bracelet beautiful it goes great with a [108:35] fluted bezel it just adds a little more [108:37] Pizzazz to the wrist right around the [108:39] same time Rolex manufactures their [108:44] 50,000th officially certified Swiss [108:46] chronometer and just happens of course [108:48] that that model is the new date just so [108:51] Hans decides [108:53] that he is going to give this very [108:55] special Rolex watch to the Swiss General [109:00] HRI guisan who led Switzerland through [109:03] the war national hero in Switzerland the [109:06] Dwight Eisenhower of Switzerland one [109:08] might say what does that even look like [109:10] to lead Switzerland through the war [109:11] that's a good question a lot of sitting [109:13] well remember this is a three putt this [109:15] is just the first putt [109:18] here so guisong gladly accepts this [109:22] great watch well Rolex is really ramping [109:24] production here now so it turns out you [109:25] know a few months later they make their [109:28] 100,000th [109:30] chronometer that they uh have certified [109:32] here oh this one goes to Winston [109:34] Churchill this one Hans goes to General [109:38] guison you know newly christened Rolex [109:41] confort and says would you please on our [109:44] behalf offer this to your dear friend [109:45] Sir Winston Church there it is Winston [109:48] Churchill accepts now Winston Churchill [109:51] is a Rolex man [109:53] well less than a year later Rolex makes [109:56] their [109:57] 150,000 officially certified chronometer [110:00] once again in the now you know new [110:04] top-of-the-line date just model and who [110:08] does Hans go to for this one through not [110:12] directly but with some influence of the [110:14] fact that his friend Sir Winston [110:17] Churchill wor it he goes to General [110:20] Dwight D Eisenhower American hero leader [110:24] of the Allied Forces architect of the [110:26] Allied victory in this new world order [110:29] and Eisenhower because his good friend [110:32] Churchill wears Rolex says how could I [110:35] not accept and so now Dwight Eisenhower [110:38] becomes a Rolex man and then a few short [110:40] years later in 1952 Eisenhower becomes [110:43] president of the United States of [110:45] America with his iconic gold Rolex [110:49] datejust on his wrist at almost all [110:51] times yes [110:53] and this is the very first time that [110:56] Rolex kind of gets the idea of what all [111:00] of their future marketing and [111:02] positioning will be which is those who [111:04] command the world wear Rolex so at this [111:09] time Rolex finally brings on a third [111:12] party advertising agency the Jay Walter [111:14] Thompson advertising agency in New York [111:18] Rolex and Jay Walter Thompson in [111:20] collaboration after Eisenhower becomes [111:23] president wearing his date just launch a [111:26] campaign in the US almost literally what [111:28] you said Ben the tagline of the campaign [111:30] is men who guide the Destinies of the [111:33] world wear Rolex watches they printed [111:38] this yes that is on the advertisement [111:41] all over magazines Across America and [111:43] maybe the world too I don't know it's [111:45] incredible men who guide the Destinies [111:48] of the world where Rolex watches [111:51] Shameless [111:53] so many things to say like obviously [111:55] today that would be you know people not [111:57] men but it's also literally true you [111:59] know you got Eisenhower you got [112:01] Churchill you got Castro totally wearing [112:05] Rolexes I'm going to save for later in [112:08] the 60s and70s some of their advertising [112:09] campaigns but there are a few sentences [112:12] that we just have to say do show up that [112:15] is along these lines there's one that is [112:18] when a man has the world in his hands [112:21] you expect to find a role Rolex on his [112:24] wrist so this is Don Draper this is [112:27] better than Don Draper a Rolex will [112:29] never change the world we leave that to [112:32] the people who wear them [112:34] oh I mean we could just end the episode [112:37] here now that is brand positioning that [112:41] is true brand positioning and the fact [112:44] that they engineered getting one on the [112:47] wrist of the president of the United [112:48] States is so genius and interestingly [112:50] even though they started with Mercedes [112:52] GLS this idea of like human achievement [112:55] and accomplishment and the top of their [112:56] field they aren't doing that in this era [113:00] it is about the people who command the [113:02] world and they later on come back to [113:04] achievement and the people who are [113:06] scientists and again I'll save it for [113:09] the 60s and 70s but this is a very clear [113:11] positioning of those who command the [113:13] world yep yep now the problem I guess [113:18] with those who command the world as as [113:20] just absolutely gangster it [113:23] is is ultimately you're talking about a [113:26] small market now it's great aspirational [113:28] you know it helps the brand Halo and [113:30] what not but more people especially as [113:33] we enter the 50s and 60s want to be [113:35] Arnold Palmer shall we say than uh want [113:38] to be Dwight Eisenhower yeah one final [113:40] little product sidebar on the date just [113:43] that I just love the original date just [113:47] had the date window it's called the date [113:49] just because it's a regular watch with a [113:51] little window on the dial that has the [113:54] number of the date of the month in there [113:55] in place of the three and you know if [113:57] you're picturing one today you probably [113:59] picture that magnifier that's sitting on [114:02] this the magnifier the Cyclops eye in [114:05] Rox marketing spe of course so the [114:07] legend of how that came about is hans's [114:11] second wife Betty wilsdorf metler his [114:15] first wife Anna died tragically in 1944 [114:19] right before the end of World War II and [114:21] that is actually when Hans said up the [114:23] Hans wildor foundation and puts all of [114:25] his ownership of the company into it [114:27] famously he never had any family erors [114:30] there was no one to pass the company to [114:31] so he creates this Foundation yes so his [114:34] second wife Betty loved the date just [114:37] and still to this day the lady datejust [114:39] I believe is the single [114:41] bestselling model in the Rolex catalog [114:44] well yeah they have like eight watches [114:46] for men and one for women of course that [114:48] one's going 50% are bought by women and [114:50] you know women were submariners and [114:52] stuff too but like come on yeah you're [114:54] concentrating 50% of your sales into one [114:57] quote unquote model yes so Betty loved [115:00] the datest but had a tough time reading [115:03] the small numbers of the date in the [115:05] window so as The Story Goes one day [115:09] while Hans is getting ready in his [115:11] bathroom in the morning he's wearing a [115:13] date dress and a drop of water drips [115:16] onto it right above the date window and [115:20] it [115:21] magnifies the I tell you can't make this [115:23] stuff up but they made this stuff up [115:25] they made this stuff up yeah yeah and he [115:26] shouts I got it I got it it's like the [115:28] Eureka moment in the bathtub and that is [115:31] the inspiration for the Cyclops window [115:36] of the dates just H if you're at Rolex [115:38] and you're listening to this and you [115:39] want to tell us no it really is true [115:41] hello at acquire. FM we will happily [115:44] come to Geneva and talk to you about it [115:46] yes H okay so Ben as you were saying [115:51] though the just it's a dress watch it's [115:54] a watch that you wear if you are [115:56] commanding the world you're wearing a [115:58] suit and you are amongst other [116:00] respectable people yes but what Rolex [116:04] kind of does from 1950 onward is yeah of [116:08] course we make that but we want to make [116:10] a watch that you can wear while you're [116:13] doing your extreme activity that's going [116:15] to look great when you show up to dinner [116:17] afterwards too yep and that is the core [116:20] of the brand today which gets built in [116:22] the 1950s under Andre sports watches [116:26] it's sports watches it's the Submariner [116:28] it's the Explorer it's the GMT Master [116:30] it's the Daytona the modern sport [116:33] watches and like you said these are very [116:35] different than what Churchill and [116:37] Eisenhower are wearing yep so Andre [116:39] Hiner the second CEO of Rolex after Hans [116:43] Andre joined the company in 1948 right [116:46] after the war and he was a former lawyer [116:49] I Believe by training and he first goes [116:53] to South America and runs the South [116:55] American market for Rolex and then he [116:57] comes back to headquarters in Geneva and [116:59] he becomes the director of marketing so [117:02] he's the one who brings on Jay Walter [117:04] Thompson he's the one who does the [117:07] Destinies of the world [117:10] campaign and then in [117:12] 1955 I believe he becomes the director [117:14] of watches and so bringing on Jay Walter [117:18] Thompson revamping the marketing message [117:21] opening up the America's market and [117:22] really the US market that's sort of his [117:25] purview here and then later on he starts [117:28] working with Mark McCormick and IMG [117:31] which is the talent agency that we'll [117:34] get into for the testimonies oh what [117:37] Andre realizes is that now here in the [117:41] 50s and into the 60s ahead all the [117:46] Technology and Engineering and [117:48] Innovation that went into Rolex in the [117:50] 30s to perfect the product of the [117:53] wristwatch that's no longer defensible [117:55] you mentioned Omega but basically [117:57] anybody else certainly any other Swiss [118:00] company can make a perfectly on parody [118:04] watch to what Rolex can make at this [118:06] point in time there's 30 Swiss companies [118:08] doing this yeah especially because of [118:11] the atais all of the component [118:14] manufacturers are outside the brand and [118:16] so you just go around all the component [118:18] manufacturers and Rolex is a little [118:20] different because they have agler but in [118:22] General you can go around to find all [118:23] the different tiny little shops that are [118:25] making each of these components and buy [118:27] it and make a watch totally so all the [118:29] stuff that Hans was a genius at kind of [118:33] isn't G to cut it in terms of [118:35] differentiation for this new era what [118:38] Rolex now needs to do is move beyond [118:42] what the actual product is on your wrist [118:46] to more what does it say about you that [118:49] you're wearing it to the brand of the [118:51] company itself what a signaling is what [118:53] it means about you this is the first [118:56] step towards becoming a luxury brand and [118:59] I don't know that Andre and they were [119:02] thinking about it necessarily as luxury [119:04] yet and it's not really luxury yet it's [119:06] much more lifestyle at this point in [119:08] time it would later become luxury but [119:11] this is his real Real Genius so from [119:16] 1953 to [119:18] 1955 Rolex and again Hans is still [119:21] running the company he dies in 1960 but [119:23] Rolex Hans Andre launch a whole Suite of [119:28] wild new models very different than the [119:31] date just and the oyster perpetuals that [119:34] we were talking about before this is the [119:37] Explorer the turnograph the Submariner [119:40] the milous and the GMT Master these are [119:43] what are then initially called The Tool [119:46] watches yep but quickly morph into [119:48] becoming known as the sport watches yeah [119:51] the industry kind of refers to them as [119:53] sport watches or tool watches Rolex [119:56] calls them professional watches which is [119:58] kind of funny because it's like the [119:59] opposite of what you oh a professional [120:01] watch you would think is like the date [120:03] just but they're thinking about it more [120:05] of like a professional driver a [120:06] professional race car driver so that's [120:08] their yeah a professional pilot yes [120:11] you'll continue to see this in [120:13] everything that is in the Rolex universe [120:15] is we don't want to be lumped into any [120:18] sort of a category so we have to refer [120:20] to something entirely different such [120:23] that we can't be put into a box like [120:25] they don't make sport watches they make [120:26] professional watches in the same way [120:28] that there's something called the Rolex [120:29] way Oh you mean like uh The Vision Pro [120:32] is not reality like the Rolex way [120:35] there's this YouTube video they put out [120:36] describing the Rolex way and they just [120:39] list all the things that they're not [120:41] it's not Limitless because that's too [120:44] limiting everything in the Rolex [120:46] Universe needs to be described in a way [120:48] that it's too impossible for you to [120:50] describe it's just simply Rolex [120:52] amazing [120:54] amazing ah okay so back to this Suite of [120:58] really world changing tool watches or at [121:01] least watch world changing tool watches [121:03] professional watches David professional [121:06] watches I'm [121:08] sorry first is the [121:10] turnograph as perhaps foreshadowed by [121:13] that really great name there what a [121:15] horrible name that's the least [121:17] successful of these watches that they [121:19] launch you're not going to be buying any [121:21] turnograph from authorized Rolex dealers [121:23] these days but David if you look at a [121:25] turnograph what's the original one look [121:26] like well it looks like the GMT Master [121:29] we'll get back to that in a sec so the [121:31] key feature the key professional feature [121:34] of the [121:35] turnograph was it had a rotating bezel [121:39] around the dial around the face of the [121:42] watch that you could use for timing [121:45] different events and the way Rolex [121:47] marketed this as this was going to be [121:49] for International Business people who [121:51] were international phone calls and [121:53] needed to time the length of the I never [121:57] that's funny swinging a Miss swinging a [122:00] miss not exactly really a romantic [122:01] lifestyle you want to be uh associated [122:04] with saving Pennies on your I guess at [122:06] the time it was saving you know $10 at a [122:08] time on your longdistance calls but yeah [122:10] sure but it'll come back the next least [122:14] successful one is the milal I love this [122:18] watch I know this one is awesome this [122:20] has a whole second life yes was designed [122:23] in association with the engineers at [122:25] CERN in Switzerland the particle [122:28] accelerator for scientist who are [122:30] working while exposed to strong magnetic [122:33] fields and the idea was that this mil [122:35] gal was so well protected from magnetic [122:38] fields that you could wear it in these [122:40] environments and it would still tell [122:42] accurate time which you can understand [122:44] why this would be a big deal if you have [122:45] a metallic hairspring that is the [122:48] primary thing making your watch tick you [122:50] walk into some of these environments [122:52] that scientists are operating in and [122:54] yeah your watch is going to speed up or [122:55] slow down yep so a little more romantic [122:58] than uh timing international business [123:00] calls in terms of the inspiration for [123:02] this but not a large market for people [123:05] who are scientists or you know aspiring [123:08] to work in strong magnetic field areas [123:11] so they discontinu that after a couple [123:13] years but then they bring it back in [123:15] 2007 it's awesome I mean it's got this [123:17] like lightning bolt secondhand on it [123:20] yeah it's so cool and the colors are [123:22] great it's got this really fun orange [123:25] I've been contemplating whether I want [123:26] to get an Explorer or a milous and you [123:30] know it's effectively the same watch but [123:31] the mil guest sort of has this very fun [123:33] scientific origin and look to it right o [123:37] I could totally see you rocking either [123:40] one it just feels me doesn't it yeah it [123:43] does you definitely have got the [123:44] Explorer you know you love exploring you [123:46] know backpacking you got that great [123:48] iconic picture is that still is that [123:50] picture of you and your dad up in oh [123:52] yeah behind me in my home studio yeah [123:54] back Iceland yep but I feel like the [123:57] milal might be more you I know both [124:00] great watches oh both great watches okay [124:04] that's number two and then the first [124:06] really big one the Explorer Ben like you [124:09] were talking about which the story is so [124:12] awesome for this so awesome so [124:15] supposedly it is made in honor of Sir [124:18] Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay Summit [124:22] of Mount Everest the first human [124:24] summiting of Mount Everest [124:28] 1953 I think I believe it was 1953 yes [124:32] and they wore an Oyster Perpetual up [124:35] that was sort of a prototype of what the [124:38] Explorer would be yep all of these tool [124:41] watches here sorry professional watches [124:43] all of them they prototyped in [124:45] partnership with various people who were [124:47] living these Lifestyles doing these [124:49] human achievements now the legend is [124:53] that sir Edmond Hillary and tensing nor [124:55] were working with Rolex wearing [124:59] Rolexes summiting Everest wearing [125:02] Rolexes and that is in the marketing [125:04] today that is the lore around the brand [125:06] today and importantly both of them [125:09] become official Rolex testimonies brand [125:12] ambassador Partners afterwards yep so [125:16] they will for the rest of their lives [125:18] tell you how much they love Rolex [125:20] however Edmond Hillary did not prefer [125:24] his Rolex he had a Smith's SW that he [125:27] preferred to wear and I think the Smiths [125:29] was the official Outfitter of the [125:31] Expedition okay and Rolex was not so I [125:34] do believe both watches ended up on the [125:37] summit I think that it's likely whether [125:39] it was on wrists or in backpacks or what [125:41] the deal is but it's just funny that [125:43] there's super tightly associated with [125:46] Rolex is that summiting of Everest and [125:49] like yeah they were interested it was [125:51] sort of there yep but the Explorer [125:54] designed for withstanding extreme [125:57] pressure changes being able to go up to [126:00] the summit of Everest and still work [126:02] fine it gosh imagine yet another modern [126:05] Endeavor where timekeeping is critically [126:07] important and means the difference [126:09] between life and death you need to rely [126:12] on your watch when you're summoning [126:13] Everest it's a really robust watch [126:16] there's not a lot of moving Parts [126:17] there's not a lot of complications [126:19] there's not a spinning dial easily read [126:21] in the elements exactly yep so that's [126:25] the Explorer he goes on to become iconic [126:28] extremely popular still to this day then [126:31] there's the Submariner an equally fun [126:35] origin myth story shall we say if you [126:38] separated Submariner from Rolex [126:41] Submariner may actually be a bigger deal [126:44] Submariner is its own whole franchise [126:48] absolutely almost in the way that's like [126:50] what if you separated the Dallas Cowboys [126:52] from the NFL who's the more important [126:54] bra like the sub is if you're going to [126:57] get a Rolex and you're intending to have [127:00] multiple you kind of should start with [127:02] the sub because it's just so iconic [127:04] you're right it is really its own world [127:07] it was Sean Connor's watch even before [127:10] started playing Bond and then he wore it [127:12] and yeah all right all right all right [127:13] all right let's get into it so the [127:15] Submariner is the Rolex dive watch the [127:18] professional diving watch as we talked [127:20] about not the first dive dive watch that [127:22] Rolex made that would be the panai but [127:24] that's not what you know what you know [127:25] is the sub is a great dive watch that [127:27] Rolex makes and defines the category yes [127:29] works and is waterproof down to 100 [127:31] meters in depth not a lot of people who [127:34] are buying these things are going down [127:35] to 100 meters but there we go although I [127:37] must say I think this is an overlooked [127:39] thing about this category that's 100 met [127:42] in depth if there were no pressure [127:45] changes and you weren't whipping your [127:46] hand around it's nice to have 100 m of [127:50] depth so that if you're going 20 m in [127:53] depth and things happen you might at [127:57] some given second while you're whipping [127:59] your arm around or something weird [128:00] happens underwater approach the limit [128:03] even though you're actually far from 100 [128:04] meters below and to that point I believe [128:07] at some point Rolex starts actually [128:11] testing their watches to significantly [128:13] greater depth than what is advertised [128:15] for this reason that's correct most of [128:17] them I think are a 10% extra margin of [128:21] safety but I think the dive watches are [128:22] an extra 25% yeah you don't want to be [128:25] like oh I've got a 300 M depth watch and [128:27] uh get down to 300 M and think you're [128:29] good but actually go to 305 yep you know [128:32] a 100 meter waterproof watch is nice [128:35] even just for going in swimming pools [128:37] and I'm not sure I would want a 10 meter [128:39] waterproof watch it feels dangerous yep [128:42] but it's not really about the [128:44] waterproofness here [128:46] so around this time 1952 [128:50] 1953 much of popular culture is focused [128:53] on a Frenchman named jacqu custo [128:57] probably uh Rings Bell to many of you [128:59] and jacqu kusto was the first world [129:02] famous undersea Explorer he actually [129:05] invented scuba diving oh interesting [129:08] yeah he was a total Renaissance Man [129:10] genius and in [129:12] 1953 he's filming the documentary The [129:15] Silent world in the Mediterranean Sea [129:18] that is going to go on to win the OS the [129:21] Academy Award for best documentary I [129:23] think in [129:24] 1956 but the whole world is watching [129:27] these exploits you know discovering the [129:29] depths of the ocean this whole alien [129:31] world for the first time along with shc [129:34] and he's doing so and going down in [129:36] these machines while wearing Rolex [129:39] watches great so great now [129:44] interestingly there's not an actual [129:46] formal relationship between Jack and [129:48] Rolex and actually Rolex was formally [129:51] working with another undersea explorer [129:54] who uh didn't become nearly as famous [129:57] but nonetheless jacqu was a Rolex fan [130:00] was wearing Rolexes while doing all this [130:02] as was much of his crew and then when [130:04] the movie comes out they're all wearing [130:06] these Rolexes and it's important to [130:08] remember for people who scua dive out [130:11] there you have a dive computer these [130:12] days I mean even I remember when I got [130:14] Patty certified even your very first few [130:16] Dives you're not wearing a dive watch [130:18] you're using a dive computer at this [130:20] time this was a legitimate tool that you [130:23] needed it's not going to tell you your [130:25] depth the way that a dive computer is [130:27] but in order to know your total bottom [130:29] time and in the same way if you're [130:30] summoning Everest well even more so than [130:33] if you're summoning Everest you really [130:34] need a Submariner a dive watch if you're [130:37] diving this isn't cute this is an [130:39] essential tool to complete this extreme [130:41] task yes so you know that's great for [130:44] marketing here but then [130:47] 1962 the very first Dr James Bond movie [130:51] Dr No comes out and as it is written in [130:54] Ian Fleming's James Bond books yes [130:57] because of course Ian Fleming himself [130:59] was a Rolex man of course James Bond [131:02] wears Rolexes now canonically I didn't [131:05] know this till doing the research did [131:07] you know that at least according to Ian [131:09] Fleming Cannon James Bond's mother is [131:12] Swiss and his father is [131:15] British kind of like you might say Rolex [131:18] itself is oh interesting [131:21] so Sean conry wears a Submariner in Dr [131:25] No and then Conor I believe would wear [131:28] subs for all of his Bond movies and Ben [131:32] like you said was in real life a sub guy [131:34] himself I think that's right there is no [131:36] bigger you know if you're trying to [131:37] build a Lifestyle brand one of the first [131:39] lifestyle brands in the modern world [131:42] like there's nothing better that you [131:44] could do and this persisted from 1962 [131:46] until [131:47] 1995 yes with golden eye yeah when [131:50] Pierce Brazen came and they wanted to [131:51] refresh Bond's brand image and they [131:54] chose Omega for that one oh wow wow [131:57] that's really charitable of you to the [131:59] bond franchise there no it is no come on [132:02] Omega paid them a boatload of money for [132:04] product placement they did eventually [132:06] but initially it was not a paid [132:08] placement really uh-huh I was almost [132:11] certain that 95 was when they decided to [132:13] bid out all the stuff well let's put it [132:15] this way if it was bid out Rolex would [132:18] decline to bid because Rolex does not [132:21] gaug in GH paid product placement well [132:23] that's I assumed the only way that Bond [132:26] would stop wearing Rolex I mean I guess [132:28] maybe you could make an argument that [132:30] you're trying to reboot the franchise [132:32] around Pierce Broan Pierce bronnen maybe [132:35] is more of an Omega guy than a Rolex guy [132:37] there's some weird line that they used [132:39] around trying to reboot him with more of [132:41] a European modern flare or something [132:44] come on no way I don't believe it they [132:47] freaking bit it out there's no way that [132:49] James Bond is not a Rolex guy and [132:51] certainly eventually Omega is paying a [132:53] boatload of money to the James Bond [132:55] franchise so much so that there's a bump [132:57] in Omega sales every five years when a [132:59] Bond movie comes out a huge bump golden [133:02] eye was when BMW launched the Z3 coupe [133:05] right so yeah golden ey was totally [133:07] product placement Central and now Bond [133:09] movies are like you know the whole [133:11] budget's covered by product placement [133:13] they only exist for product [133:17] placement I don't know one of the [133:19] sources I found on watches of SPN n.com [133:22] details apparently the costume designer [133:25] reached out to Omega and was given for [133:27] free a c master and there's a I think [133:32] even a quote there was no product [133:33] placement incentive in 1995 whatsoever I [133:36] went to them and of course they were [133:37] interested but it was no more than [133:40] helping us they gave us watches for [133:41] nothing it definitely turned into a [133:44] backup the truck boatload of money thing [133:46] but the Omega fans will insist that it [133:49] was a organic it first okay maybe that's [133:55] right anyway the point is from 1962 [133:59] until [134:00] 1995 if you like James Bond and you [134:04] wanted to have a little bit of James [134:05] Bond in your life too then you wanted to [134:07] wear a Submariner on your wrist yep it's [134:10] perfect James Bond does a lot of diving [134:12] and then he goes right from you know [134:13] diffusing the undersea bomb with the [134:16] Bond girl to then popping up and going [134:19] to this high class dinner after is all [134:21] wearing the same watch the entire time [134:23] it's perfect it's perfect it uh super [134:25] fun little Koda on the Submariner a few [134:28] years later in 1967 do you know the [134:31] story of the sea dweller which I believe [134:33] is still in the Rolex lineup to this day [134:36] it is is this the one that's like the [134:37] Super Sub that's like a Submariner but [134:40] you can go real deep it's the Super Sub [134:42] yes so Rolex develops this in [134:44] partnership with the French undersea [134:48] exploration company comx and there's [134:51] this issue where helium would get [134:53] trapped in the watch in the Submariner [134:56] and the pressure would break it as [134:58] you're coming back up and so they [134:59] develop the sea dweller which is [135:01] waterproof down to 600 M and has a [135:04] special helium release [135:08] valve this is ridiculous no person who [135:10] is going to buy these actually is going [135:13] to use this stuff except for comx [135:14] employees that are being issued them but [135:17] it adds to the romance it adds to the [135:19] you know like this is lifestyle purchase [135:22] okay if you're already taking us from [135:24] Submariner to Sea dweller you got to [135:26] take us to deep sea [135:28] challenge this is the ultra Ultra [135:30] version yeah yeah all right go for it so [135:34] they develop a watch this thing is so [135:37] thick you're not putting this on your [135:39] wrist but they design a watch and they [135:40] said well what if we take this idea of [135:43] originally the Submariner and then the [135:45] sea dweller and we make this thing [135:47] called the deep sea and there was an [135:49] earlier version of this before Jam [135:51] Cameron right yeah well the Cameron one [135:53] I believe is the deep sea challenge [135:56] which is a extra extra version and the [136:00] challenge is the one that's the 11,000 [136:03] meter whereas the regular deep sea is [136:07] just regular old 3900 M so you get the [136:10] deep sea for 3900 M the deep sea [136:12] challenge to really get to the bottom [136:14] the 11,000 M James Cameron on a man [136:18] submersible takes the [136:21] sea dweller deep sea Challenge and it [136:24] actually is I think all of those Brands [136:26] they like include the sub brand with the [136:28] parent brand in this thing down to the [136:31] marana's trench to the deepest part of [136:33] the ocean and this thing is like clipped [136:37] on to the outside of the [136:39] submarine because it's useless to have [136:41] it inside like humans would get crushed [136:43] by this pressure if they were on the [136:44] outside but the watch keeps perfect time [136:47] keeps all the water out all the way to [136:49] the deepest part of the ocean amazing [136:51] and of course James Cameron testimony [136:54] yes of course of course so that's going [136:58] down to the bottom of the sea very [137:01] romantic lifestyle uh you know [137:04] Association by the way isn't it [137:06] interesting all these are in English all [137:08] these watches have English names yeah [137:10] what's the market here it's American yes [137:12] come [137:14] on so take US Airborne David yeah so [137:17] we've gone down now we'll go up that [137:19] brings us to the G Mt Master the [137:22] Greenwich meantime master so in [137:27] 1955 Boeing launched the 707 commercial [137:31] jet airliner based on a Air Force [137:35] air-to-air refueling tanker design I [137:39] didn't know that until this episode yeah [137:41] did I and the next year in 1956 PanAm [137:44] the iconic American Airline begins [137:47] flying InterContinental Jet flights with [137:51] the Boeing 707 for the first time and [137:54] the Jet age for the consumer is born and [137:58] along with it jet lag It's A New Concept [138:02] you know if you traveled across [138:03] continents before you didn't move fast [138:05] enough that you uh experienc jet lag so [138:09] PanAm is worried about the effects of [138:12] jet lag on its Pilots the pilots are you [138:15] know going back and forth all the time [138:17] across the Atlantic Ocean or the Pacific [138:18] Ocean or whatever and so they decide [138:21] that the best thing to do is to keep the [138:25] pilots operating on their home time so [138:27] let's say the pilots are based out of [138:29] New York they need to operate on New [138:30] York time even if they've just landed in [138:33] London okay and the way that they're [138:35] going to do that is they're going to [138:36] work with Rolex and develop a new [138:39] professional watch for their pilots that [138:41] can for the first time tell time [138:44] simultaneously in two different time [138:45] zones amazing so Rolex takes the failed [138:49] turnograph which isn't selling well but [138:52] has the rotating bezel remember [138:54] bidirectional rotating bezel importantly [138:56] cuz the Submariner is just one well [138:59] maybe not at first but it eventually [139:00] becomes just one so you don't you know [139:02] screw up and do something you don't want [139:04] to with it yep and they change the [139:07] markings on the bezel from 60 Minutes or [139:10] 60 demarcations that it was on the [139:12] turnograph to 24 hours and then they add [139:15] in a fourth hand on the movement that [139:18] moves at a [139:19] 24-hour movement and so all of a sudden [139:22] you can now on one single watch face [139:25] keep track of two different time zones [139:28] and the GMT Master is borne you are the [139:32] master of time with this watch [139:35] legitimately very very useful whenever [139:38] you and I travel for acquired I set the [139:42] complication in the lower right of my [139:44] Apple watch to be the home time because [139:46] it's just really nice to keep track of [139:48] home time in addition to where I am [139:50] right now totally so that's pretty cool [139:54] and eventually they launch Tutone on the [139:58] rotating bezel the most famous of which [140:00] being red on one half and blue on the [140:03] other half and the pep is the Pepsi [140:05] model yes so cool they do all these [140:07] great limited editions the Sprite the [140:10] Batman gray and black it's great the [140:12] community comes up with little nicknames [140:14] for all the different color schemes that [140:15] they do here super super fun now this is [140:18] for air travel and Jet travel but of [140:20] course the Pinnacle of 1960s and 1970s [140:24] romance up in the air is not air travel [140:28] but space travel yep oh yes which brings [140:32] us to the Apollo [140:34] missions for which standard issue from [140:37] NASA is the Omega speed master yeah [140:41] which again I will say bolsters my case [140:43] that in this 40s 50s 60s Omega was the [140:48] Big Brand like Rolex had a Target in [140:51] mind to beat and that Target was Omega [140:53] who was bigger yep but even though Omega [140:58] was standard issue on the Apollo [141:01] missions not all of the Apollo [141:03] Astronauts chose to wear their standard [141:06] issue watches so if you go to Rolex [141:10] headquarters there is an incredible [141:14] signed picture from Apollo 13 you know [141:18] the Apollo 13 mission the Tom movie [141:21] signed by astronut Jack swager a [141:24] character who's played by Kevin Bacon in [141:26] the movie to my longtime friend Renee [141:29] Jen who I believe was Rolex head of [141:33] communications at the time who enabled [141:35] me to always be on time so Jack and I [141:39] think maybe some of the other astronauts [141:40] too preferred GMT Masters and were their [141:45] GMT Masters during the Apollo missions [141:47] interesting yeah cuz like you said the [141:49] uh Omega speed master famously is the [141:51] moon watch in many ways it's the big [141:54] blemish in rolex's whole strategy of [141:58] being the brand for people who [142:00] accomplish the greatest Heights in human [142:02] history but this is a great little way [142:04] to slide in and take a little slice of [142:06] that history too yep and by choice by [142:09] the astronaut's Choice much like Sean [142:10] connory oh what could be better yes not [142:13] going to wear this inferior [142:15] product now I'm sure this is rolex's [142:18] version of history but supposedly NASA [142:22] reached out to Rolex first because they [142:26] knew that test pilots preferred GMT [142:30] Masters but there was a mixup in rolex's [142:33] New York Purchasing Office that led to [142:36] this map of Omega being selected instead [142:40] uh uh if you work at Omega please [142:43] contact us and tell us what is the real [142:45] version of this story because we know no [142:47] one at Rolex is going to call so let's [142:49] hear at least Omega side of this yes [142:51] okay so whatever the case you know this [142:54] is all just building so much Legend and [142:57] lore and romance and you know the [142:58] ultimate Lifestyle brand here and like I [143:00] said earlier this really is the [143:02] architecting of Andre heininger and we [143:05] talked about the J Walter Thompson [143:06] relationship but I had mentioned Mark [143:08] McCormack and IMG and starting here in [143:12] the mid-60s with IMG is when they really [143:16] turbocharge and formalize this testimony [143:19] brand ambassador part parip relationship [143:21] and they are doing two prong here these [143:24] professional watches are happening but [143:25] they've also Advanced their sort of [143:26] dress line yes they've come out with the [143:29] day date yes the president as it's [143:32] nicknamed the president was so ironic [143:34] that the first president to wear Rolex [143:36] wore a date just not a DAT date right [143:39] but future presidents wore Day dates yes [143:41] but anyway you back to IMG IMG was the [143:44] first modern Talent celebrity [143:47] endorsement agency and really Visionary [143:50] of Mark cormick to found it in 1960 so [143:53] he brokered tons of celebrity [143:56] endorsements and he works with Rolex and [144:00] they sign the big three quote unquote in [144:03] the golf world first Arnold Palmer then [144:05] Gary Player and then Jack Nicholas and [144:08] for their whole careers I believe [144:10] probably their whole lives they are Rox [144:14] men yep and that is effectively the [144:17] blueprint for everyone from Federer to [144:19] Tiger Woods forward yeah so Justin golf [144:22] you know if you go forward Tiger Woods [144:24] ANUK soram today Scotty Sheffer Jordan [144:26] spe Justin Thomas Brook Henderson Lydia [144:29] Co you know not everybody but at least a [144:32] large share of the best players or Rox [144:34] players well it's interesting because [144:36] when you list them off like that yeah it [144:38] sounds like a large group but I think [144:40] the strategy is not a lot the strategy [144:43] is only the best yes a large share of [144:46] the very best players and that goes for [144:48] individual athletes but it also goes for [144:50] which events they sponsor I mean I was [144:53] talking to Ben Kimber at hinki and he [144:54] pointed out they don't just sponsor PGA [144:56] Tour they sponsor the Masters they're [144:59] not going to really Mess Around Much [145:00] beyond that similar to tennis like yeah [145:02] we'll do Wimbledon well and now they do [145:04] all four grand slams ah okay so yeah [145:07] arguably tennis especially post Federer [145:10] is even more iconic Rolex than golf is [145:14] they partner with many of the top top [145:16] players in the world but feder really [145:18] was transformational yeah think that's [145:20] right I mean I don't think the feder [145:21] Rolex relationship is quite like a [145:24] Michael Jordan Nike relationship but [145:26] it's in that next tier of great athlete [145:29] Partnerships and there's a couple really [145:31] interesting things about Golf and Tennis [145:34] specifically for Rolex one just the [145:37] overall brands of the sport you know [145:39] mesh very well with Swiss luxury watch [145:42] companies but also even going all the [145:44] way back to the 30s and the wisdorf days [145:46] the Hans days of Rolex proving that you [145:49] could keep accurate time while playing [145:52] golf or tennis was like a really key [145:54] marketing message because You' got the [145:56] shocks impacting the wrist of hitting [145:58] the balls all the time think about that [146:00] hairspring think about that delicate [146:03] balance wheel floating there carefully [146:05] ticking back and forth hovering the [146:07] vibrations I don't really understand how [146:09] it keeps working perfectly yep totally [146:12] it's also the type of sport where you [146:14] can be an elite topof thee World Player [146:16] for a very very long time as opposed to [146:19] other sports I mean think about [146:20] Federer's career think about Arnold [146:23] Palmer's career jach Nicholas you know [146:26] these people had multiple Decades of [146:29] dominance being at the Pinnacle of human [146:31] achievement yep that's right [146:34] so that wraps up the iconic tool sport [146:39] professional watches [146:41] Rolex I I I don't you there's you [146:44] haven't [146:45] said except for the model that both of [146:48] us are wearing on our wrists right now [146:51] the [146:53] Daytona really created a market yeah in [146:56] and of its own yeah and completely [146:59] changed the mechanical watch Market [147:01] period yes the Daytona through a [147:05] complete accident of history as we shall [147:07] see in a minute here created a [147:08] phenomenon created the modern watch [147:11] collector Market yes and all of the [147:14] Crazy Prices and auctions and Insanity [147:18] that occurs today I think you can say [147:20] really is all because of the Daytona [147:22] it's one component of it David I don't [147:24] want you to oversell I've got a lot okay [147:25] okay at least from the Rolex side of [147:27] things yes the Daytona is what created [147:31] all of it but before we tell that story [147:33] yes now is a great time to think good [147:36] friend of the show service now we have [147:39] talked listeners about service now's [147:41] amazing origin story and how they've [147:43] been one of the best performing [147:44] companies the last decade but we've [147:46] gotten some questions from listeners [147:48] about what service now actually does so [147:51] today we are going to answer that [147:54] question well to start a phrase that has [147:57] been used often here recently in the [147:59] Press is that service now is the quote [148:01] unquote AI operating system for the [148:05] Enterprise but to make that more [148:07] Concrete service now started 22 years [148:09] ago focused simply on automation they [148:12] turned physical paperwork into software [148:14] workflows initially for the IT [148:17] department within Enterprises that was [148:19] it and and over time they built on this [148:22] platform going to more powerful and [148:24] complex tasks they were expanding from [148:27] serving just it to other departments [148:29] like HR Finance customer service field [148:32] operations and more and in the process [148:35] over the last two decades service now [148:37] has laid all the tedious groundwork [148:39] necessary to connect every corner of the [148:42] Enterprise and enable automation to [148:44] happen so when AI arrived well AI kind [148:47] of just by definition is massively Soph [148:50] icated task Automation and who had [148:52] already built the platform and the [148:53] connective tissue within Enterprises to [148:55] enable that automation service now so to [148:57] answer the question what does service [148:59] now do today we mean it when they say [149:01] they connect and power every Department [149:04] it and HR use it to manage people [149:06] devices software licenses across the [149:09] company customer service uses service [149:10] now for things like detecting payment [149:12] failures and routing to the right team [149:14] or process internally to solve it or the [149:17] supply chain org uses it for capacity [149:19] planning integrating with data and plans [149:21] from other departments to ensure that [149:23] everybody's on the same page no more [149:24] swivel chairing between apps to enter [149:26] the same data multiple times in [149:28] different places and just recently [149:30] service now launched AI agents so that [149:32] anyone working in any job can spin up an [149:34] AI agent to handle the TDS stuff freeing [149:36] up humans for bigger picture work [149:38] service now was named to Fortune's [149:40] world's most admired companies list last [149:42] year and fast companies best workplace [149:44] for innovators last year and it's [149:46] because of this Vision if you want to [149:48] take advantage of the scale and speed of [149:50] service now in every corner of your bus [149:52] go to Serv now.com Acquired and just [149:55] tell them that Ben and David said you [149:57] thanks service now okay so David the [150:00] Rolex Daytona o yes the instant [150:05] worldwide [150:07] sensation or [150:09] not so the Daytona unlike all of rolex's [150:15] other watches is a chronograph or as [150:20] call it a cosmograph yes because again [150:23] this is Rolex we can't use industry [150:26] standard terms so what is a chronograph [150:28] a chronograph is a very fancy term for a [150:32] stopwatch however complicated you [150:34] thought a regular mechanical watch was [150:36] now add in something like the Daytona [150:39] where you also have a full seconds hand [150:43] on the main dial that counts seconds and [150:45] then another dial to count minutes and [150:48] then another dial to count hours all in [150:52] addition to the regular watch function [150:54] yes there are four dials on the watch [150:56] face of the Daytona incredible now it [151:00] turns out Rolex has actually made a [151:03] chronograph for a very long time this [151:05] was the first tool watch that they [151:08] introduced way back before World War II [151:10] before Andre heininger before anybody [151:12] was thinking about this stuff and in [151:14] large part it looked like this but there [151:16] was no craze around it yes so in 1962 [151:21] Rolex becomes the official timekeeper of [151:24] the then relatively new Daytona [151:27] International Speedway in Daytona Beach [151:30] Florida and to commemorate this great [151:33] moment the next year in [151:35] 1963 Rolex officially starts calling [151:38] their chronographs which again they've [151:40] been making for like three decades at [151:41] this point daytonas they thought about L [151:45] man because they were also very closely [151:47] involved with Lama the race in France [151:50] but to the name Rolex this has to have [151:52] international appeal and can't have [151:55] silent letters that Americans can't [151:57] pronounce what's better than Daytona I [151:59] can look at the word I can say it out [152:01] loud and again like we've been talking [152:03] about the market is America post World [152:04] War II and what could be more American [152:09] glamour in [152:10] 1962 than Daytona Speedway Fast Cars [152:17] movie stars 24hour race [152:20] yeah 24-hour race it's perfect and then [152:24] a couple years later one of the true [152:27] Leading Men actors of the day Paul [152:30] Newman stars in a 1969 film called [152:34] winning about being a race car driver [152:37] and after he stars in the movie well [152:40] guess what he develops a hobby of [152:41] becoming an actual race car [152:43] driver and his equally famous wife the [152:46] actress Joanne Woodward gifts him with a [152:50] Rolex Daytona of his very own for his [152:54] racing activities with the immortal [152:56] inscription on the back drive carefully [153:00] Dash me you know signed me you again [153:04] we've been talking romance lifestyle [153:06] development the brand here it's iconic [153:08] you can't get any more iconic than that [153:10] it's perfect yes you can totally see how [153:12] this would set off an absolute insane [153:18] craze in the market [153:20] except to your point it doesn't right [153:22] away except it doesn't there's so many [153:24] of these moments in Rolex history really [153:26] in all the stories we tell where the [153:28] company does everything in their power [153:29] to align the Stars perfectly and it [153:32] doesn't work but then a butterfly flaps [153:35] its wings several years later and all of [153:37] a sudden it does say in Italy so 1969 is [153:43] when Paul Newman stars in this movie [153:46] it's sometime you know in the next year [153:48] or so after that [153:50] when Joanne gives him this watch Paul [153:53] Newman absolutely is Iconic at this [153:55] point in time he's being photographed [153:57] all over the world he's a leading style [153:59] figure he's in magazines and this is his [154:01] watch he's wearing this watch and he [154:03] wears it for about 10 15 years or so and [154:06] then one day in [154:08] 1984 so long long long time later lots [154:11] of History passes which we will come [154:14] back to and one day in [154:16] 1984 his daughter Nell has her boyfriend [154:20] over and Paul asks the daughter's [154:24] boyfriend does he know what time it is [154:26] and the boyfriend replies I don't know I [154:28] don't have a watch and Paul on a whim [154:31] says here take this one it keeps good [154:33] time and gives the boyfriend the watch [154:37] the Paul Newman Daytona I actually [154:40] didn't know this story swear to God this [154:42] is true this watch sold at auction for [154:43] the most money ever ever I think it was [154:46] 17.5 [154:48] million here take the one it keeps good [154:50] time and at the time the market such as [154:53] it existed for daytonas the secondary [154:56] market for daytonas it was like a $200 [154:58] watch so you know hey I like the [155:00] boyfriend sure have a [155:03] watch I'm done with [155:05] it ah man to have been the [155:11] boyfriend because two short years later [155:15] in [155:17] 1986 for whatever reason [155:20] it is unknown a bunch of dealers in [155:24] Italy start snatching up versions of the [155:29] Daytona from the era when Paul Newman's [155:32] Daytona was made and it's important to [155:35] say here in Italy there is a real watch [155:39] culture this is true in various parts of [155:41] Europe at this point in time in a way [155:43] that in America there's actually not [155:44] watch culture they want to Market to [155:46] Americans there's all this Rising wealth [155:48] and people want to celebrate their [155:49] successes and all that and they're [155:51] trying but America doesn't have a watch [155:52] culture the way that Italy had both a [155:54] collecting culture and a style culture [155:56] which is why there are secondary Market [155:58] dealers in Italy y so one rumor is that [156:04] around this time in the early 80s Paul [156:08] Newman had been on the cover of an [156:09] Italian style magazine wearing the watch [156:12] obviously taken before he gave it to the [156:14] boyfriend and maybe that was the reason [156:17] that people in Italy decided this is a [156:19] cool watch [156:20] nobody really knows and nobody has ever [156:21] been able to loc that magazine cover so [156:24] who knows well for whatever reason a [156:27] butterfly flapped its wings and Italians [156:30] thought that the watch was cool so the [156:33] dealers start buying up the quote [156:37] unquote Paul Newman style daytonas which [156:39] is a specific style was made for a [156:41] couple years by Rolex in the late 60s [156:43] early 70s and it had like a art deco [156:46] style face to it yeah and a very [156:49] particular color scheme that sort of [156:51] featured red around the edges as well [156:54] yes red around the edges around the [156:55] track where the minutes and seconds are [156:57] kept but also a very specific font yep [157:00] also we should say we haven't said yet [157:02] that on the Daytona and really all [157:04] chronographs there's a very cool feature [157:07] which is around the edge and this sort [157:09] of gives the watch its signature design [157:12] there is units per hour I don't know if [157:15] it's logarithmic but may I should work [157:17] out the equation in my head maybe it is [157:18] logarithmic it starts at on the version [157:21] I'm wearing 400 and goes all the way [157:23] down to 60 and what that means is if you [157:28] press start and you drive one mile and [157:31] then you press the same button again to [157:33] stop wherever the second hand is pointed [157:37] around the edge of the watch was your [157:40] miles per hour for that one mile that [157:42] you drove so if I was able to drive you [157:46] know one mile in 1 minute then it's [157:48] going to come all the way around it's [157:49] going to be pointed all the way up to [157:50] the top and it's going to say 60 but you [157:52] know it goes up to 400 because race car [157:54] drivers that's awesome I actually did [157:57] not know that that's what those you got [157:59] to be kidding me you own this watch I [158:02] know I know I know well you know I [158:04] haven't thought about this watch in 15 [158:07] years yeah for anyone uh who's trying to [158:10] figure out what's going on over in David [158:11] land David used to work in Investment [158:14] Banking and this was a part of the [158:16] uniform when you got out of college well [158:19] here's the whole sorry so my dad is big [158:21] into watches has been for a long time [158:23] starting probably when I was in high [158:25] school and college he got really big [158:26] into watches and watch collecting so [158:28] like early before the market here in [158:30] America yeah I mean that's before it [158:33] took off in any way in the US totally [158:35] and I thought he was insane I was like [158:36] why are you blowing all this money on [158:38] watches which back then it actually [158:39] wasn't that much money regardless I [158:42] graduated I go to work at Investment [158:43] Banking and back then and I'm sure still [158:45] to this day Investment Banking had a [158:47] watch culture and my dad gave me a [158:49] couple watches to wear one of which was [158:52] this stainless white face Rolex Daytona [158:55] which is an incredible piece it was an [158:56] Incredible Gift back then I was like oh [158:58] this is super cool and all my colleagues [159:00] especially the senior Bankers like who [159:01] is this freaking kid right that this is [159:04] not a I got my first bonus so I went and [159:06] bought a Rolex this was an IT watch this [159:09] is not an analyst watch I don't know if [159:12] it was necessarily A managing director [159:14] watch but it was probably something that [159:15] like if you made VP you would go get [159:17] something like this yes so it odd for me [159:20] to wear it and uh paradoxically it [159:22] actually killed my interest in watches [159:25] and desire to wear them because I [159:27] realized it was weird for me to wear [159:28] this watch and then I was like you know [159:30] what I need to just stop so especially [159:33] when I got to the West Coast I was like [159:34] I should just not wear watches this is [159:36] too much I need to get my bearings again [159:38] yeah exactly exactly so then I didn't [159:40] wear watches at all you know nothing on [159:42] my wrists until the Apple watch and then [159:44] when the Apple watch came out I've worn [159:45] that every day since until we went to [159:47] Taiwan and we were like well we should [159:48] do a little little Easter egg and we [159:50] broke out yeah the watches out of the [159:52] safe so cool so the question going [159:54] forward is listeners if you're listening [159:56] to this a few months years in the future [159:58] the question will be do I keep wearing [160:00] this do I go back to the Apple watch [160:02] what do we do I don't know we'll see [160:05] okay but what you're foreshadowing here [160:06] though is the hype over that Paul Newman [160:09] dial which to be clear I am not wearing [160:11] a Paul Newman dial trickled out into the [160:14] rest of the daytonas it made any Daytona [160:17] extremely desirable just sticking with [160:19] the Paul Newman models here in [160:22] 1986 prices for some of these models [160:25] shoot to like [160:26] $330,000 Plus in [160:29] 1986 yeah for a watch that Paul Newman [160:32] gave away to his daughter's boyfriend [160:34] two years before and was worth $200 Ben [160:37] you're right this one event didn't [160:39] create the global watch collecting and [160:41] investing Market period but it was part [160:44] of it absolutely was part of it this was [160:46] a huge moment of like oh wow these [160:49] things aren't just purchases they're [160:51] Investments and you can trade in them [160:53] yeah put a pin in that there's a whole [160:57] world of 70s and 80s that's this almost [161:00] like parallel universe to Rolex that [161:02] we're going to go into here in a minute [161:03] before we do that it's worth resuming [161:06] our history of Rolex advertising because [161:11] concurrent with releasing all of the [161:14] professional watches Rolex expanded [161:18] their aperture in their marketing it [161:19] went from just men who guide the [161:22] Destinies of the world where Rolex to [161:24] suddenly you've got these scuba divers [161:26] and these pilots and these race car [161:29] drivers now with the Daytona and they're [161:32] wearing the professional watches for [161:33] their craft we can probably sell a lot [161:36] of watches by selling that lifestyle yes [161:40] so this is where the expansion goes from [161:42] just commanding the world to human [161:45] achievement those who sit a top their [161:46] fields and in 1967 to 1970 there's this [161:51] great campaign they launched the if you [161:53] were campaign in a big I mean Google [161:57] this we'll put some links in the show [161:59] Notes too but Google this and I'm sure [162:00] we'll tweet it so you can see it on our [162:01] Twitter account big bold helvetica font [162:04] if you were flying the Concord tomorrow [162:07] you'd wear a Rolex picture of the [162:09] Concord go in supersonic picture of the [162:12] GMT master so great this is what these [162:16] Pilots at the top of their field are [162:19] wearing they stayed a million miles away [162:22] from features and it was all lifestyle [162:25] advertising this is the person you would [162:27] be if you owned this watch there's a [162:30] version speaking at the UN if you were [162:33] speaking here tomorrow you'd wear a [162:35] Rolex if you were climbing here tomorrow [162:38] yes diving down to Great depths taming [162:40] oil weires I think there's even one [162:42] where they're like walking in a volcano [162:45] it's just this brilliant campaign that [162:47] again this is the late 60s it's [162:50] everything we've learned from the madman [162:52] era of advertising completely the [162:54] opposite of the Mercedes GLS era we are [162:57] leaning heavily into who could you be [163:01] yeah and I do think this was the very [163:03] first sort of Chip of what made Rolex a [163:06] real Challenger to Omega who had been [163:09] kind of the standard big Swiss watch [163:11] brand Rolex was really the one to bring [163:14] lifestyle advertising to Bear also I [163:17] know I keep harping on this Oma thing [163:19] Omega was actually worn by the soldiers [163:23] in the bore war that Hans had recognized [163:27] so they had the history too they had the [163:28] history too yeah yep those incredible [163:32] ads that was really Peak Rolex lifestyle [163:36] ERA this kind of second era of Rolex of [163:40] moving beyond the product to selling the [163:42] lifestyle and the Daytona was part of [163:45] that and then in the 80s when the [163:48] Italian thing happened and the Paul [163:49] Newman thing happens and the collector's [163:51] Market gets built it's actually I think [163:54] the first real big move that Rolex makes [163:58] into the luxury World it did kind of [164:02] create the one model in their lineup [164:05] where it had real hype around it and [164:09] that just stayed true for decades I mean [164:10] even in I don't know 2010 or something [164:13] you could walk into a jeweler who's an [164:15] authorized Rolex dealer and you could [164:17] just buy something out of the case which [164:18] you cannot do today yep you could buy a [164:21] Submariner you could buy an Explorer you [164:22] could buy a GMT Master you could buy a [164:24] date just but you couldn't buy a Daytona [164:27] that's sort of from this 80s forward was [164:30] always this spot in their lineup where [164:32] we we'll have to call you about that one [164:34] today if you want to buy a Rolex of any [164:37] model you go in and you put your name on [164:39] the weit list and then at some point in [164:41] time could be a couple months could be a [164:44] couple years you'll get the call that [164:46] your model is available the Daytona is I [164:49] think the only model where there is no [164:52] weight list oh I don't think that's true [164:54] is that is that not true no it's [164:56] impossible to say that because they work [164:59] through authorized dealers and so it's [165:01] not up to [165:02] Rolex and it varies greatly dealer to [165:05] dealer I think they're actually called [165:06] Rolex retailers now they changed it from [165:08] authorized dealer but it's whatever the [165:10] local dealers policy is interesting [165:13] interesting at least historically it [165:14] might be changing amidst the insanity [165:16] right now you know if you go browse the [165:17] forums the lingo that I read is the [165:20] Daytona is not a wait list it's a wish [165:25] list Ah that's awesome like most of the [165:27] other models if you want one and if you [165:29] get on a list at a authorized dealer at [165:33] some point in time your turn will come [165:35] up whereas with a Daytona it's like yeah [165:37] you can express desire I have a few [165:39] things to say on this but let's wait [165:40] till we get to the present day we have [165:42] the entire watch industry is going to [165:44] fall apart and then get rebuilt from [165:46] scratch and we have that in between [165:50] uh where we currently are and where [165:52] we'll end up all right let's go there [165:54] all right take us back so this was a [165:58] whole side quest that I did this episode [166:02] nice term look at us getting all gen Z [166:05] David and I interpreted the assignment [166:07] differently to okay well you're just [166:09] pandering to Jen Z right now do an [166:11] episode on how how would I know side [166:15] quest interpreting the assignment I'm [166:17] sorry is this jenz lingo I don't even [166:18] know I think it I'm pretty sure it is oh [166:20] anyway we interpreted the assignment [166:22] differently of do an episode on Rolex [166:24] David viewed it as go as deep as [166:26] possible on the entire history of the [166:28] brand itself the company the [166:30] relationship with agler and each of the [166:32] watch models and I heard it as go fully [166:36] understand the entire watch industry and [166:38] contextualize rolex's role within it so [166:42] here it goes here's my best David [166:44] Rosenthal impression for the quartz [166:47] crisis and I have two huge thank yous [166:50] for this section Ben climber the founder [166:52] and CEO of hinki I spent hours pestering [166:56] Ben and having phone calls with him and [166:58] I probably read 30 things on hinki I [167:01] mean in the modern watch era it's the [167:03] definitive place to read about watch [167:05] culture and secondly to Joe Thompson Joe [167:09] is the journalist in the industry most [167:12] recently he's the executive editor of [167:14] hinki but over the last 40 years he has [167:17] written all the iCal pieces he was the [167:19] editor of watch Time Magazine he's one [167:22] of the only people ever to get an [167:23] interview with a sitting Rolex CEO he [167:27] lived the courts crisis firsthand and [167:29] was flying around to Geneva and Taiwan [167:32] and Japan and Reporting on it live so [167:35] okay you've mentioned the courts crisis [167:38] also known as the courts Revolution yes [167:40] what is this all right [167:43] so here we are in the early 70s the [167:47] Swiss are riding High they're the [167:49] Undisputed Champs of watchmaking that's [167:51] where we left our heroes here at one [167:55] point the Swiss actually made up as much [167:57] as 85% of the world's total wrist [168:01] watches 85% of the market they had this [168:05] is in 1945 so it's right after the war [168:07] the analogy here is like tsmc and Taiwan [168:10] making mechanical wristwatches is an [168:13] extremely difficult specialized skill [168:15] yes they made 19 million of the total 20 [168:18] 1 a half million that year another thing [168:22] to contextualize it is you can [168:24] understand what is coming and how [168:26] technology disruption will happen this [168:30] 19 million watches produced was by [168:35] 2500 individual companies 90% of which [168:39] employed fewer than 50 people wow [168:43] completely decentralized means of [168:45] production in many ways it actually the [168:47] Taiwan metaphor totally extends it's [168:50] like Switzerland was hinu Science Park [168:53] and these places all sort of needed [168:54] together and collaborate yes yeah I was [168:56] going to say the exact same thing and so [168:58] this is an industry built on skilled [169:00] labor fragmented across a ton of [169:01] suppliers very little of vertical [169:03] integration someone makes a movement [169:04] someone makes the hand someone makes the [169:06] case and all this happens in one of the [169:09] most expensive labor environments in the [169:11] world yeah Geneva ain't cheap it's kind [169:13] of amazing that there was this labor [169:15] intensive industry in Geneva all right [169:18] so that was 19 1945 3 decades later in [169:21] 1973 it's still going strong the Swiss [169:24] peaked at almost 90 million watches made [169:27] in [169:28] 1973 wow up from 19 million 28 years [169:33] before they're now at 90 million watches [169:36] handmade in this crazy production [169:38] process per year so we keep alluding to [169:41] this quartz crisis but the quartz was [169:44] not the first revolutionary new [169:46] technology that was supposed to disrupt [169:49] mechanical watches there was sort of a [169:51] halfstep along the way to a technology [169:53] that turned out to be a detour that [169:55] actually wasn't the future David do you [169:57] know what that is oh I would guess like [170:01] digital timekeeping but that's quartz [170:03] yeah yeah what else vibrates like a [170:06] quartz crystal what do you think could [170:08] oscillate to keep time something [170:11] radioactive a tuning fork Ah that's a [170:15] great weird thing in history and part of [170:17] this also comes from from Mark Bridge's [170:19] great research paper the whole Swiss [170:22] watch industry had been marketing that [170:23] you can judge the quality of a watch by [170:25] its timekeeping and then suddenly this [170:27] tuning fork watch comes out they're no [170:30] longer the best at timekeeping [170:32] mechanical watches are worse than the [170:34] tuning fork watch there's this crazy [170:37] watch that comes out the boliva acutron [170:40] in practice though the acutron wasn't a [170:43] disruptive technology in the sort of [170:45] Clayton Christensen term it was a [170:47] sustaining innovation [170:49] it took the existing thing and made it a [170:51] little bit better the watches still [170:52] required though hundreds of components [170:55] and handmade craftsmanship in order to [170:57] make it yeah so it's still difficult to [170:59] make right so this meant that the [171:00] existing companies would have to [171:02] integrate into their own workflow to [171:04] produce it but there really wasn't a [171:06] wide open window for some new entrant to [171:09] use it as a disruptive Force that's the [171:11] thing that you kind of need is can a new [171:13] producer come in and take a radically [171:16] simpler approach like say a Japanese [171:19] company right so [171:21] quartz well we all think of like oh [171:24] quartz comes from Japan and Seiko and [171:27] then that was this huge disruption of [171:28] the switchwatch industry people had been [171:31] exploring quartz technology for a very [171:33] long time and in fact the first quartz [171:36] clock was created all the way back in [171:39] 1927 do you know where David oh well I [171:43] know the Swiss themselves were doing big [171:45] industrywide consortiums correct but [171:48] that was in 60s and 70s in [171:51] 1927 who possibly could be doing [171:55] research with quartz technology to use [171:58] for [171:59] timekeeping I have no idea it's in [172:02] America cuttingedge technology [172:06] research Bell Labs Bell Labs yeah okay [172:09] there we go in New Jersey the first [172:12] quartz clock is created wow now [172:16] unfortunately in 1927 the Bell Labs [172:20] quartz clock was the size of an entire [172:23] room the eniac of clocks yes okay so [172:26] we've been describing the quartz crisis [172:30] what is it well how does it actually [172:31] work how do quartz watches function [172:34] instead of a main spring that you have [172:35] in a mechanical watch you have a battery [172:38] pretty straightforward instead of an [172:41] escapement you vibrate the quartz [172:44] crystal quartz has this crazy thing [172:47] where if you apply an electrical current [172:49] and it's shaped a certain way they can [172:51] vibrate at exactly [172:54] 32,768 Herz that's right I remember [172:56] seeing that number is weird this is [172:59] called the pazo electric effect and [173:01] interestingly that was discovered all [173:03] the way back in 1880 in Paris wow the [173:07] other important thing you need to know [173:09] about a quartz watch is it requires an [173:11] integrated circuit the modern quartz [173:14] watch is dependent on using an IC to [173:17] count the quartz vibr ation and [173:19] transform them from [173:20] 32,768 HZ to 1 Herz to tick one second [173:25] at a time or if you're using a digital [173:27] watch to increment the seconds by one [173:29] each time so by the time you get to the [173:31] early 70s you've now got integrated [173:34] circuits that's exactly right the first [173:37] quartz watch that hit the market in 1969 [173:39] from Seiko was dependent on the [173:41] invention and miniaturization of the [173:43] transistor and integrated circuit before [173:45] it could actually happen so that's why [173:46] we're sort of stuck waiting from the 20s [173:50] all the way to 69 before it can be used [173:52] in a watch so really the whole thing is [173:54] Bell Labs exactly right and everything [173:56] we've talked about so far is a [173:58] manufacturing story it's a craft story [174:00] it's an apprenticeship story this is a [174:03] technology story yeah so amazingly as [174:06] you pointed out the Swiss did see this [174:08] coming just like how Kodak famously [174:11] invented digital photography in their [174:13] lab the Swiss saw what happened with the [174:15] toting fork and they wanted to be ready [174:17] so in 6 2 years before the Japanese [174:20] debut of the SEO Astron there was a [174:23] quartz chronometer in a lab at C which [174:26] is Switzerland's Electronics watch [174:28] laboratory that was twice as accurate as [174:30] a mechanical watch they just didn't [174:33] actually have an impetus to be first to [174:35] market right right why would we this is [174:38] really dangerous for our industry we've [174:39] made it yeah let's keep this in the lab [174:41] yeah so over to Japan the Seiko Astron [174:44] is launched in 1969 you would not have [174:47] guessed it was going to disrupt the [174:48] whole industry it cost as much as a new [174:50] car and it wasn't more accurate it could [174:54] be off by up to 5 Seconds a day so [174:57] what's the big deal but just like [174:59] semiconductors they get on the learning [175:00] curve exactly that's exactly right it's [175:03] a technology story it's based on [175:05] semiconductors so the price value curve [175:07] that it would follow actually looked a [175:09] lot more like the early PC from the [175:11] Microsoft episode we did the fact that [175:14] it's in watches because that's the [175:16] consumer need that's being filled [175:18] actually isn't relevant for predicting [175:20] how much better it's going to get you [175:22] should be looking at the technology so [175:24] the courts watch starts at this Toyota [175:27] Corolla price point comes down in price [175:31] a THX yeah it used way fewer parts and [175:34] required very little knowhow to assemble [175:36] it you could invest upfront in machinery [175:39] and have very very very low variable [175:41] costs and labor costs so for the first [175:43] time in watchmaking you had economies of [175:45] scale and operating leverage it was a [175:47] tech technology product in an artisan [175:49] Market yeah so this whole thing once it [175:53] gets going happens so fast and in the [175:55] early days the Swiss industry and a lot [175:57] of makers including Rolex released their [176:00] own oh courts models too yeah hold on to [176:03] that for a second so here's how the [176:06] quartz Revolution went and the Japanese [176:08] sort of think of it as the quartz [176:09] Revolution the Swiss think of it as the [176:11] quartz crisis by the end of the 1970s [176:13] you could get a quartz watch for cheaper [176:15] than a mechanical watch it was more [176:16] accurate so here in 19 79 mechanical [176:19] watches are for the vast majority of [176:21] scenarios functionally obsolete unless [176:24] you are an astronaut or a pilot or an [176:26] adventurer who prefers a spring over a [176:29] battery that could die there is no [176:31] practical reason to ever buy a [176:33] mechanical watch again and it's like the [176:35] Olympics are being timed with quartz [176:37] time pieces right and interestingly [176:39] Omega quartz at the Olympics interesting [176:42] but obviously this is not the end of our [176:44] story and mechanical watches would go on [176:46] to be a better business than ever 50 [176:48] years later very different but much [176:51] greater in Revenue than ever before so [176:53] there's this kind of wild thing that our [176:57] beautiful mechanical watch hero [176:58] protagonist here is now obsolete [177:02] functionally so there were a few [177:04] iterations of how this went the American [177:06] firms tried to make courtz watches with [177:09] uh LED technology the Hamilton Pulsar [177:12] came out in 72 these were really cool [177:15] and you look at them but in the long run [177:16] they were a complete failure you had to [177:19] push a button to turn the LED on so it [177:22] actually took both hands to read the [177:24] time one to wear the watch one to push [177:26] the button some companies followed into [177:29] the market starting in 74 and will be [177:31] very familiar to acquired listeners [177:33] National semiconductor Fairchild [177:36] semiconductor TI got into this right [177:38] yeah yeah yeah yeah there we go yep then [177:41] came the Stampede Commodore Intel HP [177:43] Hughes aircraft dozens of companies [177:46] flooded in WoW Hughes aircraft getting [177:49] into the market wow yes and you know [177:52] these companies made integrated circuits [177:54] and so they thought well we can make [177:56] consumer products around them too [177:57] because we make the internals but a they [178:00] weren't great at building Brands these [178:01] were all B2B companies and B they were [178:04] horribly commoditized this Market [178:07] immediately became commodity had no [178:09] barrier to entry and all the profits [178:11] immediately got arbitraged out so LED [178:14] failure the next step is twofold one [178:19] quartz movements powering analog watch [178:21] faces and this started with the SEO [178:23] Astron this was the thing that the [178:25] Japanese did first in [178:27] 1969 and the other branch which every [178:29] listener will know well is digital LCD [178:32] watches with liquid Crystal displays [178:34] that ended up being vastly Superior to [178:36] LEDs since they were always on and these [178:38] also worked on a quartz movement Seiko [178:41] Citizen and later Casio were extremely [178:43] successful for a time making these out [178:45] of Japan so Hong Kong becomes the [178:48] PowerHouse for inexpensive manufacturing [178:51] of all of this along with Taiwan South [178:53] Korea and Mainland China and so by [178:56] 1980 just a few years in I mean think [178:58] about this 69 the Seiko Astron launches [179:02] 75 is when the Swiss are going oh crap [179:05] and then within four years it's over [179:07] quartz completely ran the table so by [179:09] 1980 Hong Kong was already exporting [179:14] 126 million watches a year half of which [179:17] were digital wow Switzerland at Peak [179:21] made 90 million and then boom a few [179:24] years in Hong Kong has 126 million by [179:27] 1981 the next year Japanese watch [179:30] exports surpass Switzerland Seiko [179:33] actually was great at Brand building [179:34] advertising messaging in a way that the [179:36] American B2B semiconductor firms were [179:38] horrible at and then [179:41] 1985 just four years after Japan meets [179:45] Switzerland Japan's exports are 3 3x [179:48] Switzerland wow and the absolutely [179:51] incredible thing is now that you all [179:52] know this this is the backdrop that the [179:55] Paul Newman craze happens right into [179:57] yeah so the Swiss Market's Global share [180:02] would fall from that 85 at Peak in 1945 [180:05] to just [180:07] 15% by 1980 wow the number of firms fell [180:11] from 2,000 companies in 1960 to fewer [180:14] than 500 in 1980 just absolutely [180:19] destroyed courts output accounted for [180:22] only 3% of units in 1975 By 1979 31% of [180:27] new watches were quartz powered wow from [180:31] 75 to 81 82 you just have a complete [180:35] running of the table and at least for [180:38] the old reason of why you would buy a [180:40] mechanical watch there is zero reason to [180:43] buy that anymore zero yeah so this is [180:45] like massively impacting the entire [180:47] Swiss econom right yeah Extinction event [180:49] for this huge industry for them there's [180:51] a whole separate story about the [180:53] founding of Swatch group and how many of [180:55] the Swiss Brands were sort of rolled [180:56] together or a bunch of them went [180:58] bankrupt or they got sold off to [180:59] conglomerates but interestingly Rolex [181:02] was independent they were owned by a [181:05] foundation they sort of had no [181:07] shareholders they also managed to resist [181:10] joining the sort of Swiss cartel that [181:12] was all sort of colluding on what's our [181:15] national strategy here so they could [181:18] sort of do their own thing I mean they [181:20] watched this certainly happen they had a [181:22] lot of fear around it but they weren't [181:24] as caught up as the rest of the [181:26] Switzerland companies that were all [181:28] super super dependent on each other the [181:30] whole watch World by volume became [181:32] almost entirely quartz and the market [181:34] for time telling as a function went [181:36] entirely to courts full stop but a new [181:39] massive Market emerged that had been [181:42] lurking in basically Niche auctions [181:45] which was watch afficianados who valued [181:48] pieces for their complexity their [181:50] Artistry and their Rarity and Rolex [181:52] figured out how to build this enormous [181:54] bigger than ever before business in this [181:57] completely New Market a of enthusiasts [182:00] who sort of Drive the excitement that's [182:02] sort of the auction house world but then [182:04] be in this lifestyle Aura of success and [182:07] this is where we told it as part of the [182:09] Daytona story because that's where it [182:11] belongs but the Italian Affair the Paul [182:13] Newman Affair is the luckiest thing that [182:16] ever happened to Rolex because this gave [182:18] them the golden opportunity to do that [182:20] right this is finally kind of clicked in [182:23] my head it's not that the mechanical [182:24] watch made a comeback it's that there [182:26] was an entirely New Market that it [182:28] turned out to be the perfect thing for [182:31] after their initial Market got wrecked [182:34] right I think there's also another level [182:35] of nuance here too Rolex was better [182:39] positioned than most of the other Swiss [182:41] companies because they had already [182:43] transitioned to Lifestyle however that [182:45] would not have been enough because [182:48] eventually Seiko and citizen were also [182:52] going to transition to Lifestyle [182:54] companies and that in and of itself what [182:58] wearing your watch says about you isn't [183:02] defensible in the long run against [183:05] technology disruption you know wearing [183:07] an Apple Watch what model what style [183:09] what band says a lot about you too I [183:11] wear my AES band on my Apple watch that [183:13] says a lot about [183:14] me but what is defensible is a luxury [183:18] strategy and a luxury strategy expands [183:21] to managing the entire market and [183:24] overall brand management it's managing [183:26] the secondary market and Supply on it [183:28] it's doing things like oh the Paul [183:30] Newman craze is happening let's pull the [183:32] model from the market it's vertically [183:35] integrating to ensure absolute product [183:37] consistency it's instituting weightless [183:40] it's killing or pausing your most [183:42] successful products it's not changing [183:44] your price in response to demand shifts [183:46] a purely lifestyle company wouldn't do [183:49] all of those things and you know I can [183:50] imagine like uh remember fossil the US [183:53] watch company that is now basically [183:55] bankrupt yep they were a lifestyle watch [183:58] company but they were not a luxury [183:59] company yep yeah that was sort of the [184:01] fashion watch craze where the courts [184:04] technology enabled a whole wave of $25 [184:08] watches where you could own five six [184:10] seven of them and wear them with [184:11] different outfits that was an [184:13] interesting market for like 20 years [184:15] before technology kind of obsoleted that [184:17] one to yep with the Smartwatch [184:20] interestingly do you know what Swatch [184:23] stands for uh I always thought Swiss [184:25] watch group but uh that's the common [184:28] perception of it it's second watch oh [184:31] these watches are so cheap you can have [184:33] a second one exactly there you go that [184:36] is a perfectly viable lifestyle strategy [184:38] yep these watches are so cheap you can [184:40] have a second one and each one says [184:41] something different it's a fashion [184:43] strategy but it's not a luxury strategy [184:46] and it's still subject to a functional [184:49] displacement like what happened with the [184:50] Apple watch yep totally okay so we're at [184:54] this like complete demise of Switzerland [184:56] here we're like thinking about how it [184:59] could get better in the future but [185:01] there's a whole parallel story which is [185:03] the Renaissance of mechanical watches [185:06] how they come to fill this new market to [185:09] be this perfect product for a new market [185:11] but first we want to thank one of our [185:13] newest sponsors here at acquired [185:16] Huntress yes Hess is one of the fastest [185:19] growing and most Lov cyber security [185:21] companies today they provide Enterprise [185:23] grade security for companies of all [185:25] sizes with the technology services and [185:27] expertise needed to protect them they [185:29] offer a revolutionary approach to manage [185:32] cyber security that isn't just about [185:33] tech it's about real people providing [185:36] real defense Around the Clock yep how [185:39] does it work so it has become pretty [185:41] trivial in recent years for an [185:43] entry-level hacker to buy access and [185:45] data about compromised businesses this [185:47] means means cyber criminal activity is [185:49] at an all-time high for companies so [185:51] Huntress created a full managed security [185:53] platform for their customers to guard [185:55] from these threats this includes [185:57] endpoint detection and response 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[186:46] Enterprises and bringing them to [186:48] businesses with as few as 50 500 or [186:50] 5,000 employees at price points that [186:53] make sense for them in fact there are [186:54] over 125,000 businesses Now using [186:58] Huntress and they Rave about it from the [187:00] hilltops they were voted the industry [187:02] leader in endpoint detection and [187:03] response in the G2 rankings for 10 [187:05] straight quarters so if you want [187:07] cuttingedge cyber Security Solutions [187:09] backed by 247 experts who monitor [187:11] investigate and respond to threats with [187:13] unmatched Precision head on over to [187:15] hess.com acquired for a free R trial or [187:18] click the link in the show [187:19] notes okay so a thing that I had a hard [187:23] time figuring out until really the end [187:25] of our research process how did Rolex [187:28] respond to the courts crisis yeah we [187:31] knew that there was this transition that [187:32] happened to luxury and it was in [187:35] response to the courts crisis but you go [187:38] read all the stuff that's out there and [187:40] nobody actually Chronicles this no one [187:42] connects the dots they talk about quartz [187:44] crisis creation of Swatch group saving [187:48] what's left of the Swiss Watch industry [187:50] and then separately they talk about [187:51] Rolex Through The Years building the [187:53] Lifestyle brand and all the race car [187:56] stuff and the advertising but Rolex was [187:58] in Switzerland during the courtz crisis [188:01] right right connect these dots please [188:04] yeah and the end of the story you know [188:05] spoiler alert is Rolex is doing probably [188:09] 10 plus billion dollars in annual [188:12] revenue way way more than any other [188:13] company in the space dude Rolex is 30% [188:17] of the revenue in the entire Swiss watch [188:18] industry [188:21] right it's insane so there's a lesson [188:24] here yes in part the lesson is it is [188:27] incorrect to describe markets by the [188:31] products in them you should describe [188:33] markets by the job to be done and the [188:37] market of risk-based time telling was no [188:40] longer available to the Swiss it [188:42] entirely went quartz but there was a [188:45] market for something different that the [188:47] Swiss were great at if they were sort of [188:50] set up and positioned correctly and [188:51] managed correctly and I think that's the [188:53] lesson here this isn't the high end of [188:55] the watch industry and the low end of [188:56] the watch industry these are two [188:57] completely different customer needs [188:59] totally different things there's an arc [189:01] to this story Rolex sits back they see [189:03] what not to do they see what to do and [189:06] then they do it yes so here's my attempt [189:10] at chronicling what happened and I would [189:12] love feedback from watch nerds if [189:15] there's anything that I missed here but [189:17] this is how it seemed to me after [189:19] reading five books talking to Joe [189:21] talking to Ben talking to all sorts of [189:23] friends in and around the [189:24] industry so there are three concurrent [189:28] stories here none of which are Rolexes [189:31] there's the Omega story then there's an [189:34] unlikely corner of Swiss watchmaking [189:36] with Blanc Pon and then there's the [189:38] auction houses and once you get those [189:41] you then kind of get the Rolex story so [189:44] first is Omega they blew a lead in the [189:46] nth [189:47] that's the only way to put it as you [189:49] being my foil throughout the episode [189:51] here being like actually David Omega was [189:53] also big maybe bigger than Rolex the [189:55] whole time totally so coming into the [189:57] 70s they just had their watch land on [190:00] the moon in Apollo 11 they're the [190:02] sponsor of the Olympics they're an [190:04] iconic brand and Incredibly Joe Thompson [190:08] tipped me off to this in a study [190:09] conducted by Gallup in [190:11] 1978 they asked the question have you [190:14] heard of Rolex eight out of 10 10 [190:17] Americans in [190:19] 1978 answered no wow less than 20 years [190:23] later 8 out of 10 said yes so Rolex did [190:27] something incredibly right between 1978 [190:30] and 1998 to go from 20% brand awareness [190:34] to 80% brand [190:36] awareness so over to omega as late as [190:39] 1977 in the courtz crisis Omega is still [190:42] the third largest watch brand in the [190:44] World Behind SEO the darling of the [190:46] quartz Revolution and Timex which was [190:48] the volume player on the American side [190:50] of quarts so in many ways they should [190:53] have been Switzerland's most likely [190:55] horse to ride this thing out but they [190:57] reacted extremely poorly what did they [191:00] do first a whole bunch of models what [191:02] did they do second go heavy into courts [191:05] what they do third throw the kitchen [191:07] sink at strategy like let just make a [191:10] bunch of models BR of Bry points really [191:12] diluted the brand they licensed the [191:15] brand out to other companies I mean from [191:18] afar this just looks like Panic instead [191:20] of thinking what are we uniquely best at [191:23] in the world and trying to lean into [191:24] that Omega thought this quartz thing is [191:26] like absolutely essential to get right [191:28] it's the future so we have to switch all [191:30] of our production to it and this is [191:32] essentially what the whole Swiss [191:35] industry did they either fell into this [191:36] trap where they went bankrupt or got [191:38] rolled up brightling Hoyer you name it [191:41] the only issue that the big glaring one [191:44] here in hindsight is that courts [191:45] required a completely different set of [191:47] competencies to do it well a totally [191:49] different culture a totally different [191:51] headcount and a totally different cost [191:53] structure yeah like you're saying [191:54] earlier courts is a fixed cost it's a [191:57] technology business with fixed cost [191:58] leverage Swiss mechanical watchmaking is [192:01] a variable cost business they happen to [192:02] both tell time but the means of how they [192:05] tell time the two types of companies [192:07] that you need to build to get there are [192:08] entirely different they shouldn't [192:10] resemble each other at all so the other [192:13] thing that killed them is that they had [192:16] these [192:17] agencies locally and so Omega would [192:20] import their movements and then the [192:22] agency could design their own case to [192:24] suit the local market oh interesting so [192:27] there weren't International standardized [192:30] models to build brand around interesting [192:33] yeah yeah yeah that is a major luxury no [192:36] no yes a Burkin is a Burkin people [192:39] exactly Rolex by this point the late [192:41] '70s they're importing whole watches [192:43] they've got their core 67 watches that [192:45] people really find iconic and they're [192:47] leading into this idea that you need one [192:49] single Global brand and product line [192:52] it's so funny if you look at some of the [192:54] real like Enthusiast type historians out [192:57] there they sort of bemoon that Rolex [192:59] stopped innovating after the golden era [193:01] in the 50s where they introduced all the [193:03] sport watches right and it's like no no [193:05] that's the point yes they got the core [193:08] product lineup set and then they rode [193:10] that horse once you create the Porsche [193:11] 911 you should just tweak the Porsche [193:14] 911 once every seven eight years and [193:16] that way you can buy a 911 just like [193:18] your grandfather bought a 911 and that I [193:22] think is a huge piece of what Rolex got [193:25] right that a lot of other people got [193:26] wrong so to close the Omega story this [193:29] is crazy it's the company that [193:31] governments and militaries wanted to [193:33] work with it's the company that Rolex [193:35] was trying to beat with all their [193:36] Innovative ads and positioning this is [193:38] the first company to ever launch a dive [193:40] watch before the Submariner and they [193:43] rushed into here's how we fight the [193:45] courtz crisis head-on when they were [193:47] just not built to be a part of that at [193:49] all so this is the place where we see [193:51] the Divide where Rolex becomes Rolex and [193:53] Omega doesn't become you know they make [193:55] cool watches but like it's not the brand [193:57] they pay a lot of money to MGM to be in [193:59] James Bond movies right so that's Rolex [194:04] sitting on their hands watching Omega [194:06] and going okay don't do [194:09] that but of course Rolex had the cash to [194:11] do it you know Rolex is a privately [194:13] owned very successful very wealthy [194:15] company where they could take two or [194:16] three years and see how it plays out if [194:18] your ownership structure is different or [194:20] you have debt or you're not as [194:21] profitable you you don't have that [194:23] luxury you don't have the margin of [194:24] safety to do that so chapter 2 guy named [194:28] jeanclaude B he's an exec at Omega of [194:31] all places resigns out of frustration [194:34] this thing sucks they're so timid he's [194:37] the Morris Chang of Omega exactly so in [194:40] 1983 be buys Blanc Pon which was popular [194:44] in the 1950s but had kind of disappeared [194:47] and he buys it with this idea that I'm [194:49] going to resurrect this thing as a [194:50] mechanical only luxury brand that's not [194:53] the way that the rest of Switzerland was [194:55] thinking they were thinking how do we [194:57] take our big bloated oldw World [195:00] Companies and write it out in this Tech [195:01] transition he's like I'm just going to [195:03] buy the brand the goal is to do limited [195:05] production handcrafted watches and the [195:09] scarcity and the high cost to make them [195:11] will lead to these high prices he picked [195:14] up this brand again because everyone's [195:17] panicking for nothing inflation adjusted [195:19] I think it's like [195:22] $16,000 this is like the uh the Bernard [195:24] AR no story buying Louis Vuitton out of [195:26] busek that's exactly right he would [195:28] later go on to sell it a decade later [195:31] for 60 million Swiss Franks nice which [195:35] back then you know that was real money [195:36] yeah so be comes up with this [195:38] advertising slogan marketing genius to [195:41] describe the essence of the brand it's [195:43] an old Brandy bot here's the slogan [195:46] since 17 35 there has never been a [195:48] quartz Blanc Pond watch and there never [195:51] will be [195:53] yeah it's a great slogan because quartz [195:56] is 13 years old 14 years old but he [195:59] invokes 1735 you know for the first few [196:02] hundred years it was impossible to have [196:03] a quartz block Pond watch perfect so the [196:06] idea is if you want to buy a commonplace [196:08] machine-made quartz watch go right ahead [196:10] but if you value traditional [196:11] craftsmanship you buy a Blan Pond we are [196:14] selling champagne and caviar and they're [196:15] selling calculators over over there [196:17] Rolex is watching this all play out and [196:19] they're like oh that's the Playbook yes [196:22] Joe Thompson has his great quote that it [196:23] was a feat of jiujitsu to take the [196:25] weakness of the mechanical watch the old [196:27] technology inaccurate labor intensive [196:30] expensive to produce and turn them into [196:31] strengths old world craftsmanships [196:34] supported by these artisans in accord [196:36] with 400y old traditions to make these [196:38] rare expensive masterpieces so Blanc Pon [196:41] and be they should get a lot of credit [196:44] for this move but in practice they had [196:46] nothing to lose it's like a fun Hail [196:48] Mary to try this approach I don't even [196:50] think be could have predicted how well [196:52] this strategy would end up working for [196:55] Rolex I think this was sort of a fun [196:59] demonstration okay Blan Pon the right [197:01] strategy at small scale with nothing to [197:04] lose chapter three auction houses the [197:08] mechanical watch Renaissance really came [197:10] first from auction houses if you think [197:13] about what auctions do they value things [197:15] that are rare and for long time this [197:17] meant vintage pieces old things mostly [197:20] fall apart that means the ones that are [197:22] surviving we can pay a lot of money for [197:25] them well mechanical watches even the [197:28] new ones are becoming [197:31] rare the whole Market's going away [197:33] companies are going out of business and [197:36] you've got these few extremely high-end [197:39] producers like PCH phip that could fetch [197:43] more than ever at auctions even new so [197:46] Paddock is is the poster child for this [197:49] they came out with this thing called the [197:50] caliber 89 have you heard of this this [197:53] watch I am very familiar with pek but I [197:56] have not heard of this watch so this [197:59] thing you're not wearing it on your [198:01] wrist it is multiple pounds in weight [198:04] like you hold it with two hands it's the [198:06] most complicated watch ever made wow [198:09] they required computerated design to [198:11] manufacture it the strategy in 1979 [198:15] internally at Paddock was for our big [198:18] anniversary celebration in 10 years so [198:21] in 79 for 1989 we want to make the most [198:23] complicated watch ever made it was [198:24] something like 30 [198:26] complications this thing made people go [198:29] nuts and at an auction house it sold for [198:31] over $3 [198:33] million Landmark High it gets mentioned [198:36] on Saturday Night Live in a skit for who [198:39] would pay $3 million for a watch [198:42] completely High Watermark completely [198:44] kicks off this new craze of complication [198:48] makers people see it and they think oh I [198:49] have to add as many complications as [198:52] possible to my watch they got a little [198:54] goofy and interestingly Rolex never [198:56] participated in that no again they do [198:59] their own thing yeah and they want to [199:00] make best engineered extremely [199:03] functional extremely reliable not the [199:06] most flare not the most artistic not the [199:08] most any of that it it is the 911 that [199:12] you could have bought 30 years ago is [199:14] the 911 that you have today but the one [199:16] today is better engineered yep so this [199:20] auction house story from 1977 to 1985 is [199:24] essentially the only interesting part of [199:26] the mechanical watch world and then it [199:29] sort of Sparks the idea that hey new [199:34] mechanical watches especially these [199:36] crazy complication ones can be really [199:38] interesting too and so right around 1985 [199:41] that's the same time that the Paul [199:44] Newman dial goes nuts in Italy I really [199:48] think a huge piece of this story is that [199:51] the auction house market sparked the [199:55] interest in the new watches it totally [199:58] totally did it like highlighted Rarity [200:01] yep okay so we've got Omega what not to [200:05] do we've got Blan Pon what to do at [200:07] small scale with nothing to lose and [200:09] we've got the auction houses taking the [200:12] used market for lack of a better term [200:14] and sparking the new market so what's [200:17] Rolex doing well at first they explored [200:19] quarts like everyone else but very [200:21] carefully the oyster quarts the oyster [200:24] quartz it's it feels profane to even say [200:28] that I kind of want one I actually think [200:29] they look extremely cool yeah they're [200:33] very angular they've got this integrated [200:35] band into the watch phase I quite like [200:38] it but they poured a huge amount of Rd [200:41] into quartz watches but they didn't [200:43] productize most of it they did these [200:45] small runs of this oyster quartz which [200:48] was a very Rolex way to do quarts that a [200:51] lot of people have called [200:52] over-engineered but they pretty quickly [200:54] got to this idea that if they wanted to [200:56] lean into mechanical as a [200:57] differentiation even though it was a [200:59] worst timekeeper and emphasized brand [201:01] Lifestyle the incredibly complex thing [201:03] that was going on in the mechanical [201:05] watch process they should just lean into [201:07] that and the romance of it and courts [201:09] just kind of violated their ability to [201:11] tell that story yep so there's a great [201:14] passage in the book elect ifying the [201:17] wristwatch which is Lucian tr's book [201:19] says Andre heiner was a true Visionary [201:22] his opinion was that the originally very [201:24] costly courts would soon be Bal this had [201:27] already happened with transistor radios [201:28] TV sets and pocket calculators top [201:31] Quality Mechanical movements would [201:33] always remain expensive and exclusive [201:35] due to the large amount of Highly [201:37] qualified labor required for [201:39] manufacturing these parts and assembling [201:41] them the inescapable fact that a [201:43] mechanical device can only tell time [201:45] approximately could easily be hidden by [201:47] writing superlative chronometer [201:49] officially certified on the dial wealthy [201:52] people don't need an instrument that [201:54] tells time they want a beautiful and [201:56] exclusive object on their wrist it's [201:59] amazing it's kind of like this full [202:00] circle moment back to the original [202:03] wristatch Market which was as ladies [202:06] jewelry yes where part of the signifying [202:09] aspect of it was I don't care about the [202:13] accurateness of the time I care about [202:15] its beauty and what it's says about me [202:17] that's exactly right the thing I was [202:19] trying to dig on this is was this a risk [202:23] that Rolex [202:25] took was it [202:27] counterintuitive and I asked Joe [202:29] Thompson about it and he said in the [202:32] late 7s every watch reporter knew one [202:34] thing mechanical watches were doomed [202:37] every company told you that including [202:38] all those in Switzerland it was a [202:40] tremendously ballsy move to continue [202:42] emphasizing the mechanical watch but [202:44] they also were like or or or Morris like [202:48] well yeah I bet the company but I knew [202:49] I'd be right you know they took their [202:51] time they waited they watched what not [202:53] to do and then they saw the Playbook [202:55] with Blanc pen of what to do yes and [202:57] then they hit the gas and they were [202:59] starting to see what was happening in [203:01] Italy as you described the other thing [203:03] that was making it take off in Italy is [203:05] the Daytona became part of a uniform [203:08] like for young men wearing a bomber [203:09] jacket and a stainless steel chronograph [203:12] on your wrist was like a look all right [203:14] I need to go get a bomber jacket now [203:16] yeah right midlife crazies here we [203:19] come but yes I think you're thinging [203:21] about Jensen's exactly right I also [203:24] think Rolex had a built-in hedge because [203:27] of their independence and because of [203:29] their cash position everybody else is [203:31] just going to do all the scrambly stuff [203:34] fast they're all super reliant on each [203:37] other and they're all overextended and [203:40] Rolex is this incredibly conservative [203:43] company yeah we should say another word [203:45] on that now so so in 1944 when hans's [203:48] first wife died he created the wisdorf [203:51] foundation he put all of his ownership [203:55] into that [203:56] Foundation much like the Ikea [204:00] foundations that we talked about on that [204:02] episode the primary purpose of the [204:04] wisdorf foundation is to ensure the [204:06] continued operations of Rolex it's even [204:10] more Ironclad than Ikea because Ikea is [204:12] this rats nest of all these different [204:14] structures and all these different Know [204:16] Country foundations that they're in R is [204:19] just one foundation in Switzerland the [204:21] most Ironclad privacy Foundation [204:24] friendly laws in the world now the [204:26] foundation is also a charitable [204:28] foundation and disperses huge amounts of [204:30] money much of it locally there in Geneva [204:33] but make no mistake they are not [204:35] responsible for shareholder return [204:37] profits you know number one is continued [204:40] operations of Rolex they can have three [204:42] bad years in a row and the CEO might not [204:44] get fired yeah and they're playing Game [204:47] Y very Ematic of this in 1978 right in [204:50] the middle of the quartz crisis this is [204:52] when omega's throwing stuff at the wall [204:54] they release the sea dweller 4000 more [204:57] of the same you know what should we do [205:00] more of the same let's go down to 4,000 [205:03] meters right so Rolex sort of had this [205:06] built-in hedge they would have been in [205:08] great shape if they needed to go courts [205:10] they had the brand they had developed [205:12] the technology to do it well they had [205:14] the product oyster quarts yeah [205:16] they just sort of hoped it wouldn't come [205:18] to that and also as we've talked about [205:20] it would require dramatic change at [205:22] Rolex if it became a quartz company they [205:25] really just wanted to be able to make [205:27] their six watches and so I think if they [205:29] had gone quartz Rolex would be fine [205:31] today that would be a way to build a [205:33] good business but the way to potentially [205:36] build a great business was to try this [205:39] crazy Blan pones strategy but at scale [205:44] with one of the biggest and most [205:45] successful brands in the world and I [205:48] think the important thing is they [205:49] maintained the option to go play the [205:52] other strategy that Omega was playing if [205:55] they really needed to but they sort of [205:57] just hoped it wouldn't come to that yep [205:59] and it didn't yep so by 1989 it's [206:02] extremely clear that their strategy is [206:04] working along with pek Philipe they had [206:07] record sales that year record adits this [206:11] craziness Paddock was similar to Rolex [206:13] in their strategy they had early [206:14] exploration into courts but they came to [206:17] the same conclusion our company is not [206:18] going to be good at this so we either [206:20] need to Die Trying or we need to really [206:24] lean into this Heritage handcrafted [206:27] craftsmanship thing but it was actually [206:29] an easier decision for them because [206:31] they're only making 9,000 watches a year [206:33] at this point Rolex is making like a [206:36] 100,000 yeah it really was as you say a [206:39] incredibly well managed but ballsy [206:43] decision on rolex's part yeah PK also so [206:46] at least now I don't know if it was the [206:47] case back then they're in a very [206:50] different part of the market than Rolex [206:52] they're in the dressat complication [206:54] world yes listeners we've been lying to [206:56] you this whole episode Rolex is actually [206:59] not a luxury company oh interesting I [207:02] mean totally disagree that is my opinion [207:04] and it's arguably not even a craft [207:06] product it's an exceptionally well-made [207:09] industrial product with exquisite [207:11] engineering and amazing branding but the [207:14] luxury World of Watches it's autum RPG [207:17] it's PCH Philipe these watches sell for [207:20] 8 10 30 times as much as Rolex watches [207:24] and they produce way fewer of them I [207:26] mean Rolex is a industrial [207:29] engineered beautiful consistent reliable [207:33] product it's not art or [207:36] complications or fashion it's Mass I [207:41] mean this thing sells a million one a [207:43] million two products a year I agree with [207:46] you I think maybe our definitions of a [207:48] luxury company are different if you were [207:50] to define a luxury company as the most [207:52] expensive highest end items yes totally [207:56] agree that is not Rolex that is pek that [207:59] is some of the other low volume [208:01] companies the reason I think that Rolex [208:04] is a luxury company extraordinaire is [208:07] managing the market as opposed to [208:10] participating in it to me that's what [208:12] Hermes does better than anybody else out [208:14] there they manage the market they're in [208:16] control they're in control and Rolex [208:19] does the same thing yeah Rolex is in [208:20] control Rolex is completely in control [208:23] they could sell their products for much [208:25] much more than they do and they do not [208:28] because it is the right long-term [208:31] decision to do so and there's a whole [208:34] bunch of other elements to the luxury [208:37] strategy that they manage with which [208:39] really comes into the next CEO Andre [208:42] Heiner's son Patrick who takes over in [208:44] 1992 and if we look at l versus premium [208:47] those definitions we used on the lvmh [208:49] episode it is absolutely luxury you're [208:51] not buying Rolex for the features right [208:53] you're buying Rolex for what it says [208:55] about you yeah and they are a high [208:57] volume luxury player again in comparison [209:00] to a Patek or a aomar or something like [209:03] that yes I think the burken bag is a [209:05] really good comp for it because [209:07] price-wise they're actually pretty [209:08] similar you you get a Burkin for I don't [209:10] know 12,000 $15,000 like I mean an [209:13] insane amount of money but relative to [209:15] what they could charge or what the [209:17] secondary market prices are totally fair [209:20] all right take us to [209:22] 1990 so everything we've been talking [209:24] about managing through the courts crisis [209:26] and this transition to luxury the [209:28] auction houses the Paul Newman [209:30] craziness in 1992 Andre retires and his [209:35] only son Patrick takes over as CEO he [209:38] had joined in 1986 as commercial [209:41] director right at the height of the Paul [209:43] Newman craze and all of this that we've [209:45] been talking about what Patrick really [209:47] did within Rolex was he vertically [209:51] integrated the company he presided over [209:54] most importantly the agler acquisition [209:56] in 2004 for rumored roughly a billion [210:00] Swiss Franks Rolex buys agler and makes [210:03] it officially in-house but the other [210:06] thing that he did that people will talk [210:07] about he Consolidated all the factories [210:11] every physical location where parts that [210:13] went into Rolex watches were made [210:16] whether those were in-house Rolex made [210:18] or a third party supplier from call it [210:21] 30 different locations throughout [210:22] Switzerland down to four four big [210:25] massive Consolidated sites where they [210:28] own and produce everything in house this [210:31] is super important and all in service of [210:34] this luxury strategy of brand management [210:36] and I owe a big thank you to James ding [210:38] one of the co-authors of the best of [210:40] time which is a great Rolex history and [210:42] he's actually working on a new book [210:44] that's going to come out in October the [210:46] Rolex Legacy he helped me understand [210:48] this Ben what you were talking about a [210:51] little while back about what Omega did [210:54] where you had the core movement but then [210:56] you had different end models and cases [210:59] and products in different regions around [211:00] the world yep that is the absolute [211:03] opposite of what you need to do as a [211:07] luxury company it can't be like this [211:09] one's better than that one or different [211:10] levels of quality or these imperfections [211:13] here and it's cute it's like absolutely [211:15] not that is critically important because [211:18] all the clientele that are buying these [211:20] products are Global clientele they're [211:22] comparing it against one another you [211:24] can't sweep this stuff under the rug in [211:26] the watch industry because of Ben what [211:28] you were saying that there was this [211:30] history of all these fragment to [211:32] different little suppliers who are [211:34] providing all these different parts to [211:35] the different end [211:37] Brands you had a wide variation in [211:40] quality among products and Patrick said [211:44] we need to make sure every Submariner [211:47] that comes in a Rolex box is of uniform [211:51] quality so he shrinks the suppliers from [211:54] 27 down to Just 4 yep Rolex bought their [211:58] bracelet maker they started forging [212:00] their own medals in house gold steel you [212:02] name it proprietary stuff Beyond just [212:05] their famous 904l steel and they brand [212:08] it Rolex nerds all recognize rasur and [212:10] oyster steel and ever Rose they already [212:12] had a lot of control over their future [212:15] from before from their private ownership [212:17] but now they really do cuz production is [212:20] also in their own hands Y and this also [212:22] starts to build into the lore you know [212:25] just like gmes has oh we have Artisans [212:28] that we train and we have our own [212:29] schools and our own Pipeline and there's [212:31] 8,000 people that work in ateles that [212:34] we've developed in France Rolex now has [212:37] the same thing in these four Mega sites [212:40] they have their own technology their own [212:42] people their own machines in when was [212:45] this 5 I think they invited four [212:48] bloggers Ben and James were two of them [212:51] to come and tour the facilities yeah Ben [212:53] climber has this unbelievable piece on [212:55] hinki about his experience right and you [212:58] read these pieces and you see the photos [213:00] and you hear them talk about all of our [213:02] Machining all of our tooling we make in [213:05] house custom and we've designed these [213:07] facilities to be able to fit like [213:10] there's this one giant hallway and bner [213:12] James was like why is this hallway so [213:14] big like oh well we designed it so that [213:16] the width of our biggest machine that we [213:18] have we multiplied that by two so that [213:21] we can get bigger ones to the Future [213:24] it's all about vertical integration and [213:26] this creates that uniformity and that [213:28] myth and that uniqueness of what you're [213:30] buying when you buy a submarin or a [213:32] Daytona it is so true I mean after I [213:34] read Ben's piece I kind of took a step [213:36] back and thought huh Rolex actually is [213:38] the highest quality thing y it's the [213:41] brand but I mean who else makes their [213:44] own machine is going to open and close [213:46] the clasp a thousand times in just a few [213:49] minutes to test it right who else is [213:51] forging their own Metals who else makes [213:53] all their own movements who else is [213:56] quietly inventing new components of the [213:58] watch and then not advertising them [214:00] because they just wanted to make it a [214:02] little bit better even though they kept [214:03] the reference number the same they're [214:04] going to absurd lengths to make these [214:07] things the highest quality engineered [214:08] and produced products in the entire [214:10] industry or in any other industry too [214:13] totally so that's sort of the product [214:14] and production side [214:16] and that's the story of Patrick's time [214:18] as CEO in 2008 sadly he develops health [214:24] issue and ends up passing away way too [214:26] young they transitioned leadership first [214:28] to Bruno Meyer who had been the CFO and [214:30] then in 2011 to Gian Ricardo Marini who [214:34] was a 40-year Rolex veteran and had come [214:36] up through Italy and this is kind of [214:38] weird to have two new CEOs in short [214:40] succession over 90 years they had three [214:44] CEOs y that kind of speaks to the ethos [214:48] of small iterative changes over long [214:52] periods of time what other companies had [214:54] three CEOs in the better part of a [214:55] century yeah and I think it was just [214:57] sort of a accident of timing that they [215:00] then had these two CEOs for relatively [215:03] short tenure and just was because they [215:04] were older but they were both long-term [215:08] Rolex veterans and what they do together [215:10] through 2008 and the financial crisis I [215:13] think is the other side the demand side [215:15] of the equation that cements in my mind [215:18] Rolex being a luxury player is the [215:21] financial crisis was huge for the watch [215:25] industry in sort of a counterintuitive [215:27] way and I remember I lived through this [215:29] as a banker on Wall Street right out of [215:31] college I graduated in 2007 and that [215:34] first year that I was on Wall Street [215:35] before the crash was the height of [215:38] watches it was sort of borderline okay [215:40] for me to wear my Daytona because it was [215:43] good times you know but everybody was [215:46] spending their bonuses on Swiss watches [215:49] The Craze was on then the crash happened [215:52] and all that dried up overnight you know [215:54] austerity was the name of the day and [215:58] that really really hurt a lot of other [216:01] watch brands who then cut their prices [216:04] to try and save Revenue Rolex didn't do [216:06] that and zeroed out ad spend yeah Rolex [216:09] didn't cut prices didn't stop sponsoring [216:12] the US Open so this is another spot [216:14] where if you're Rolex you're like well [216:17] how long is this financial crisis going [216:18] to Last 5 Years what's 5 years it's [216:21] probably more like 2 years we don't have [216:23] shareholders I don't need to make my [216:24] quarter I don't need to make next year [216:26] we have enough cash cushion that we can [216:28] ride this thing out so we're going to [216:29] make the right 5 10 20 years bets and [216:34] this is all noise so interestingly Rolex [216:37] actually massively doubled down on their [216:40] marketing spend in the US during the [216:43] 2008 financial crisis well everyone else [216:46] is not only cutting marketing spend but [216:48] cutting prices on existing products in [216:50] stores to move inventory as you said the [216:53] first time I saw this I was like who at [216:58] Rolex I mean how did they make this [217:00] decision how could you possibly make [217:02] this bet and then as you start to learn [217:04] more about it it's kind of the obvious [217:06] move y there's a secular thing that's [217:09] happening which is the American watch [217:11] aici andado Market it really wasn't a [217:14] thing until the early 2000s but it was [217:17] really starting to take off y this is [217:19] when Ben founded hinki exactly [217:22] Enthusiast blogs YouTube channels I mean [217:24] not yet in 2008 YouTube channels but [217:26] here's an example Rolex and other Swiss [217:29] watch brands used to throw these events [217:32] to generate interest in their watches [217:34] and it would be for one person we talked [217:36] to called them old fuddy duddies who [217:38] would show up or they would be for [217:40] Chinese tourists and they would have [217:42] them in the Chinese language that's how [217:45] small America's watch aici and auto [217:48] market was in the early 2000s by 06078 [217:51] it's really taking off and so it's just [217:53] the logical move to double down on this [217:57] and in retrospect it looks like so [217:59] ballsy but given rolex's unique position [218:02] versus what everybody else could do the [218:04] opportunity is there for the taking [218:06] advertise hard go get that new customer [218:08] right so here's the thing this was the [218:13] easy half of the decision for Rolex was [218:16] to double down keep going during and [218:20] after the great financial crisis that's [218:22] easy of course texbook Playbook the [218:24] thing to do when you're in a position [218:26] like Rolex the hard thing was the watch [218:31] industry did a hard bounce back up in [218:34] the next couple years once Zer kicked in [218:36] in response to the financial crisis as [218:39] craziest things felt in 2007 in the [218:41] watch Market by the time you get to 2011 [218:44] 2012 2013 were Way Beyond that in [218:48] excesses and so many of the other brands [218:51] totally did this Whiplash seesaw thing [218:53] where they were pricing really high [218:55] trying to become exclusive before 2008 [218:58] 2008 hits they Panic they cut prices [219:00] they cut marketing spend now the market [219:03] comes roaring back and all of a sudden [219:04] they're raising prices back up again and [219:06] trying to cash in on the good times what [219:08] does Rolex do they stay the course same [219:10] thing they don't raise prices but they [219:13] control Supply yep well they rise prices [219:16] slowly every year it's a modest price [219:18] increase every year that kind of sets [219:20] the floor and frankly if they do it over [219:22] enough decades everybody just believes [219:25] forever that these things are going to [219:26] appreciate because it's almost like [219:28] they're the fed and they're guaranteeing [219:31] a certain rate of return on these things [219:33] there is this really awesome New York [219:35] Times article in the last couple months [219:38] talking about this Dynamic how all the [219:41] other luxury houses over the past couple [219:44] years you know during the postco [219:46] craziness really raised prices and price [219:49] gouged themselves out of the market once [219:51] the reset happened and Hermes didn't and [219:53] Rolex followed this exact Playbook over [219:56] the last 10 years of not price gading [219:59] themselves out of the market but [220:00] intentionally limiting Supply letting [220:02] the secondary Market go nuts and then [220:05] but keeping an even Keel for themselves [220:08] and then now that there's been a bit of [220:10] a reset they're stronger than ever I [220:12] think all right so this is a question I [220:15] would was sort of had on my list to ask [220:17] you a very very common narrative about [220:21] Rolex right now is they have burned all [220:25] of their biggest fans these weight lists [220:28] have gotten out of hand the authorized [220:30] dealers are being [220:32] disrespectful they are intentionally [220:34] limiting Supply have they gone too far [220:38] in their unavailability I think it was a [220:40] really good point one dimension where [220:42] Rolex historically has has been very [220:46] different in their strategy versus heres [220:48] or other luxury companies is they don't [220:51] control the last mile of retail in the [220:53] customer relationship they've always had [220:55] the authorized dealer model as we talked [220:57] about so right now or at least until [221:00] recent [221:01] times these crazy weight lless things [221:04] are actually sort of somewhat out of [221:06] rolex's control yeah in a way that [221:08] Hermes or Louis Vuitton or Chanel or the [221:10] like they're managing their own customer [221:13] relationships Rolex does have their own [221:15] stores and this was one of my really big [221:17] questions as I was doing the research [221:19] like why it seems obvious they should [221:21] have their own stores this works so well [221:24] for lvmh and heres and etc etc why [221:26] doesn't Rolex do this historically at [221:29] least the key difference between Rolex [221:32] and other luxury houses is Rolex is a [221:35] one category company heres can have [221:38] their own stores because they sell [221:39] furniture and they sell ready to wear [221:41] and they sell jewelry and they sell [221:43] handbags so like even though in any one [221:45] C category they sell a lot less of a [221:47] given skew like far fewer birken bags [221:50] than Rolex sells watches the totality of [221:54] all the products they sell allows them [221:56] to support a retail a dedicated owned [221:59] and operated retail footprint n i don't [222:01] buy this you don't buy this for a second [222:03] okay well I do think this is changing [222:05] now Rolex has 1500 authorized dealer [222:08] locations and if all 1500 of those were [222:11] Rolex stores they would absolutely do a [222:15] great job paying rent yes they don't [222:17] need to sell a whole bunch of other [222:19] things to lure people into the store to [222:20] well I think that's true now and I think [222:22] that's why they bought buerer in 2023 [222:25] okay that's all right let's have that [222:26] debate and then let's come back to [222:27] scarcity okay okay so why buy buerer [222:31] 2023 they spend a rumored five billion [222:33] do five five yeah that's what I read I [222:36] mean nobody knows the the details of the [222:38] transaction but to buy one of if not [222:41] their largest single retail partner the [222:43] jeweler berer and they have a [222:47] hundred-year-old relationship this was [222:49] one of the first Retail Partners for [222:52] Rolex in the super early days and [222:55] actually this Alliance plus the agler [222:58] alliance helped them stay out of the [223:02] Swiss cartel so in many ways they have [223:05] bruer to thank for their independence [223:08] and their freedom while the rest of the [223:09] industry was panicking so they've got [223:10] this like tradition but the question is [223:13] everybody jumps to shouldn't they own [223:15] own their own retail they own their own [223:16] everything else should they own their [223:17] own retail why what are the reasons well [223:20] you there's control over the buying [223:21] experience and to your point list [223:24] management y as weight list management [223:26] becomes more important I think that [223:27] becomes more critical yes that's [223:30] legitimate there's eeking out every [223:32] dollar of margin and there's getting [223:34] full visibility into data on customers [223:37] which actually is interesting they they [223:39] don't get that today they they like [223:41] don't have their customers email address [223:43] or names or addresses because that data [223:46] belongs to the authorized dealer Rolex [223:47] doesn't actually know who's buying their [223:49] product or who likes their product which [223:50] is kind of crazy for a modern company of [223:52] this scale and size well then the [223:55] elephant in the room to me with all this [223:57] is all these authorized dealers sell [224:00] other brands too berer sells Omega and [224:04] berer uses the fact that they're a Rolex [224:06] dealer to attract those other brands and [224:10] to attract the customers who will buy a [224:12] bunch of stuff in the store once you [224:13] have Rolex uh someone in the research [224:15] put it to me you're a made man yeah but [224:18] historically Rolex has been like that's [224:20] fine sell PEX sell Almar sell Omega in [224:24] the same physical location will that [224:27] change now right okay so just walk [224:30] through the logic tree Rolex mostly [224:32] didn't need to take on the burden or the [224:34] fixed cost or the complexities of owning [224:37] retail Rolex dictates terms to retailers [224:41] on how their products should be sold [224:42] displayed marketed they have exacting [224:44] standard [224:45] and over time retailers actually have [224:47] less room to differentiate their own [224:49] brand and experience and increasingly [224:51] you walk in and you're like oh is this a [224:52] Rolex store and Rolex doesn't have to [224:55] take on managing the store they have [224:57] 16,000 employees doing 10 billion a year [225:00] in sales amazing this business is so [225:03] efficient from a headcount perspective [225:06] and everybody talks about it like it's [225:07] craftsmanship it's high economies of [225:10] scale production like yeah there's [225:12] people working on these things but [225:14] there's a tremendous amount of machines [225:17] and they don't have to operate the [225:18] stores but they mostly get all the good [225:21] parts of uh highly controlled retail [225:24] experience without having to also be in [225:26] the very crappy retail business I mean [225:30] industrywide third-party retailers make [225:33] a 37% gross margin after they mark up [225:36] from the the wholesale price that's [225:38] their margin for Rolex in particular [225:40] it's lower than average cuz Rolex you [225:43] only get to keep 33 to 34% % I've heard [225:46] that actually went down 1% this year [225:48] Rolex kind of gets to have their cake [225:50] and eat it too by not owning retail [225:52] stores and having all the benefits of as [225:56] if they did at least over the last 30 [225:58] years or so I think your points are [225:59] valid about they are increasingly kind [226:02] of wanting that customer touch Point U [226:04] especially as it comes to things like [226:06] weight lists yep the thing about Rolex [226:09] in pursuing this strategy until now at [226:12] least they don't necessarily do things [226:16] for the gross margins you know this is a [226:19] foundation owned company they do things [226:21] for long-term strategic reasons and I [226:24] think if at least you buy the premise [226:27] that if they were to operate their own [226:30] retail [226:31] locations they would be pushed by [226:35] customers to have more things in those [226:38] stores than just the six or seven core [226:40] Rolex models which you probably can't [226:43] walk out of the store holding one of [226:44] them anyway you're just going there to [226:46] sign up for you know a wait list which [226:48] again is a very different experience [226:49] than the Hermes retail experience you [226:51] can't walk out of there with a Birkin [226:53] but you sure as hell can walk out of [226:54] there with a scarf or a piece of [226:55] furniture or uh you know Apple watch [226:58] strap you know etc etc it is [227:01] astounding that Rolex has had the [227:04] discipline to remain just a watch [227:06] company imagine the opportunity to [227:09] become a fully Diversified Luxury [227:11] company Rolex jackets Rolex sunglasses [227:15] Rolex fragrance Rolex you know you name [227:18] it Rolex luggage why are they not in the [227:20] luggage business you could make 904l [227:23] steel carry-ons right you know make [227:26] ramoa look like Child's Play [227:28] here and I suspect that this is part of [227:33] the reason not to have gone directly [227:35] into retail yeah maybe I don't know I [227:38] don't think so you think Rolex is going [227:40] to give into customers saying I wish I [227:42] could buy other things in this store or [227:44] ignoring the free money I could be way [227:46] off base here but just like really [227:48] imagine like okay what does it take to [227:51] operate these retail [227:53] locations these days You're competing [227:56] for physical space with lvmh so you are [227:58] in the most expensive highest rent [228:02] highest end places on Earth Yep and [228:05] again you may not necessarily care about [228:06] your margins and maybe you can take that [228:08] hit and they have tons of cash maybe you [228:09] can even buy the real estate but just as [228:12] a shopper experience for the people that [228:15] are now visiting those [228:16] locations they want to go and they want [228:18] to have an experience right and they [228:20] walk out with product and so if there's [228:22] a Rolex only store and all there is is [228:24] the six seven eight models there that [228:26] you cannot walk out of the store with [228:28] like what is it doing High high-end [228:30] bonobos right yeah it's a highend [228:32] bonobos except you have no idea when [228:34] you'll get the call right exactly now [228:37] compare that to a berer where like yeah [228:39] you can't walk out of there with Rolex [228:40] but you can walk out of there with a you [228:43] know I don't know a whole bag full of [228:45] tag hoers yeah exactly exactly and it's [228:47] a non-exclusive market anybody who's a [228:49] watch collector isn't just a Rolex [228:51] collector or like just because you buy a [228:53] maybe I'm sure there's some people but I [228:55] think for a lot of people who love Rolex [228:57] they're also going to own a panai or [228:59] they're going to own a whatever and that [229:01] doesn't hurt their relationship with [229:02] Rolex yeah fair so the question kind of [229:06] remains why did they buy buerer yeah so [229:11] here's my supposition yes it will help [229:14] them improve their economics for watches [229:16] that they sell through buerer but not [229:18] why they did it yes it will help them [229:19] improve leverage over other retailers [229:21] but they didn't need that they already [229:24] do things like gee it would be nice if [229:27] you wanted to remain a Rolex authorized [229:28] dealer if you sunk a whole bunch of [229:32] capital costs into rebuilding this part [229:34] of the store to make it better oh no no [229:36] we mean you we would like you to do that [229:39] we will get back to you this December if [229:42] we're going to renew the contract for [229:43] next year for you to stay a deal or not [229:45] um but let us know in those Renovations [229:47] they have all the leverage all of it so [229:50] I don't think it's like oh now we own [229:51] this retailer and um they didn't need [229:54] that at all yep okay yes it will also [229:56] let them have a tighter grip on watch [229:58] allocation and the customer touch Point [230:00] weight list management which I agree is [230:01] a huge liability for them right now but [230:03] they didn't need to own the ads to do [230:06] that yeah they had the leverage to take [230:08] control anyway they could easily have [230:10] said Hey in the contract for next year's [230:12] renewal or putting in a clause that you [230:15] are no longer allowed to maintain weight [230:18] lists on your own for customers we're [230:20] centralizing that and if we catch you [230:23] doing it you lose your license for the [230:24] next year great point they absolutely [230:27] could have done that now maybe they [230:28] didn't feel that was ethical they're [230:29] like look it's the Dealer's business and [230:31] we have to let them run their business [230:33] but you could solve this without buying [230:36] someone who represents 8% or whatever [230:39] berer is of their total [230:41] sales I honestly think the biggest [230:43] reason to do it was so no one else buys [230:46] it berer is a 100-year-old relationship [230:50] the family didn't have anyone to pass it [230:52] to they're looking to sell Rolex is a [230:55] very private company they don't want [230:57] anyone else owning an asset that has a [230:59] lot of visibility into Rolex itself [231:01] since they sell so much of rolex's [231:02] inventory they don't want a public [231:04] company to own it and start reporting [231:07] how many Rolex watches were sold that [231:09] year through that that' be horrible for [231:11] Rolex and I'm sure lbmh would have loved [231:14] to have own berer absolutely I mean they [231:16] own Sephora you don't think they want to [231:18] own berer yeah and berer also comes with [231:22] um what's the turnau the American [231:24] Retailer which I'm sure Rolex doesn't [231:26] really want to own turnau but here they [231:28] are so I think it was so no one else [231:30] buys it yeah I think you're probably [231:31] right I do agree though I mean the [231:33] reason that people are all up in arms [231:35] about this I never got the call from my [231:37] authorized dealer and the whole [231:39] weightless thing is because weightless [231:42] were only really a thing [231:45] for until honestly like 2015 for like [231:48] steel daytonas the rest of it you could [231:51] just buy like it's this whole this new [231:53] notion of having the privilege to go [231:56] spend 7 to $20,000 on something and [231:59] getting told no by the local jeweler [232:02] that's crazy most of the time they're [232:05] going to say yes absolutely let me walk [232:07] you to the checkout aisle so because [232:10] it's kind of a new motion the old way of [232:13] doing it they basically didn't have the [232:15] infrastructure to have a properly [232:17] managed I know you are taking out the [232:18] luxury strategy and you're showing me [232:20] the page may I please remind you of [232:22] anti-law of marketing number six [232:24] dominate the client and number seven [232:27] make it difficult for clients to buy oh [232:29] also number five do not respond to [232:31] Rising [232:32] demand but honestly until 2015 like you [232:35] could just buy a Rolex for most of them [232:38] except for the ones that they [232:39] deliberately wanted to use as hey this [232:43] one's hard to get I should just be able [232:45] to walk in and buy a sub you know yes [232:47] and so that's how customers feel because [232:49] that's how it always was and then they [232:52] each ad is using their own mystical [232:55] portal of weit list which really means [232:56] how many Instagram followers do you have [232:58] or are you famous enough for me to [232:59] allocate one of the six that I get to [233:01] sell this month to you and so it's a [233:04] customer hostile experience if Rolex was [233:07] just put in the contracts guess what [233:09] we're managing the list and uh we're [233:11] going to actually manage it and we're [233:13] going to publish how it works I think [233:16] they could earn a lot of customer [233:17] Goodwill and they wouldn't have to go [233:18] buy a bunch of retailers and and figure [233:19] this whole thing out totally agree they [233:22] absolutely could do that yeah I will say [233:26] I don't think Rolex wanted to be in the [233:29] luxury [233:30] business I think they wanted to be a [233:32] Lifestyle brand I think they wanted to [233:34] have fantastic engineering I think they [233:36] wanted to continue making things a [233:38] little bit better every year they wanted [233:40] to have the very best brand they could [233:42] with customers but I think Glo luxury [233:45] kind of happened to them yeah and they [233:48] didn't really have a good choice after [233:50] the courts crisis yeah other than to do [233:53] this uh I heard an anecdote that um [233:56] richmont and in particular cardier [233:59] decided that they were going to start [234:01] acting like a luxury watch brand and [234:03] they sort of reconvened the watch [234:05] industry around them in a luxury way uh [234:08] an example being to compete with basil [234:11] world or the basil fair richmont started [234:14] their own thing in Geneva and they said [234:17] look the industry gathers here in Geneva [234:18] now and we're going to be fancy about it [234:20] and no one's eating brst anymore on the [234:21] show floor we're going to sell watches [234:23] to customers with champagne and caviar [234:26] and a presentation ceremony and so if [234:28] you're not doing that guess what that's [234:31] what watches are now I don't think Rolex [234:33] was the driver of that I guess is what [234:35] I'm saying I think the industry went [234:37] that way and they happened to be the [234:39] most prestigious high volume player in [234:41] it and so they're sort of trying to [234:43] figure out [234:44] what it means to be an accidental luxury [234:47] brand I can totally believe that I mean [234:49] go back to Hans wil starf right like [234:51] that was totally not his vision for the [234:53] company his vision was a Rolex watch on [234:56] every wrist yep okay so now now that [234:59] we're like over in scarcity land I want [235:01] to revisit the question have they gone [235:02] too far in their [235:04] unavailability well the main reason I [235:06] honestly believe this that they didn't [235:08] ramp production to meet customer demand [235:12] isn't positioning it's not we're a [235:14] luxury brand we don't do that it is they [235:18] don't want to destabilize the business [235:20] Good Times come bad times come we do not [235:23] want to be the brand that ramped 20% in [235:27] one year and is now slashing MSRP which [235:30] lots of watch brands have to do and [235:33] embarrasses their customers who just [235:35] bought it at full price and now suddenly [235:36] it's 20% off like that's a horrible way [235:39] to destroy your brand yeah cardier [235:42] overproduced watches in 2016 and had to [235:44] destroy hundreds of millions of dollars [235:46] of inventory this kind of thing doesn't [235:48] happen to Rolex very incremental slow [235:51] increases to production over time that's [235:54] the thing that has served them well they [235:55] never want to be anywhere close to the [235:57] line of what the real demand is there's [236:00] sort of this business physics lesson [236:02] here it's very hard for a business to [236:04] ever get smaller than its largest ever [236:07] yes it's like a Down Round in Venture [236:09] back companies yeah customers don't like [236:12] it employees don't like it it's hard to [236:14] shrink your overhead to rational new [236:16] realities after bubbles pop it just [236:19] doesn't feel the same as when it was [236:21] always your biggest best year ever yeah [236:24] and I think Rolex just really doesn't [236:26] want to ever be in a position of that so [236:28] they're like conservative to a fault on [236:32] slow modest increases in production slow [236:35] changes and when there's a bubble and a [236:38] whole bunch of new fans of your brand [236:39] come in it's like an immovable object [236:41] meeting an Unstoppable Force like [236:43] they're just not going to meaningfully [236:45] ramp the biggest thing they did do is [236:47] they started this new production [236:49] facility construction that will be open [236:51] in 20127 or something but even that I [236:54] don't know that that'll be maybe 10 [236:55] maybe 15% bump when that comes online [236:58] but I think they're torn right now [236:59] because they don't want to have all [237:01] these customers whose demands they can't [237:02] meet but they also don't want to risk [237:04] destabilizing the next hundred years [237:06] yeah new demand is actually like a risk [237:09] if you're taking a very long-term view [237:12] yes and managing [237:14] valuable customers who want a long-term [237:17] relationship with you and who are angry [237:19] while you're trying to protect your own [237:21] stability yep is hard which coming back [237:24] to the weit list I think this is the [237:26] positive justification for a weit list [237:29] making sure that those people who become [237:33] clients and buy your products and [237:35] participate in your brand really want it [237:38] and aren't just there because it's the [237:39] hot flavor of the week and they're going [237:40] to be gone next month right and Rolex [237:44] cares about that but not as much as like [237:46] a PCH phelip I mean PCH phelip they want [237:48] to make sure that they are appeasing the [237:51] collectors and the true fan like Rolex I [237:54] think they acknowledge that they're very [237:56] commercial they're here for the the the [237:58] executive who got a promotion and the [237:59] doctors and the dentists and the lawyers [238:01] and the finance guys that's their bread [238:03] and butter and I don't think they want [238:05] to like lose the brand patina with the [238:08] that huge volume of material wealth in [238:12] aggregate yeah James ding again put this [238:14] to me uh in a really good visceral way [238:17] the typical Rolex buyer is not [238:20] comparison shopping with a pot Tech or [238:22] any other brand they are comparison [238:25] shopping with do I buy this Rolex or do [238:29] I upgrade my 911 hm that's interesting [238:33] one more rumor I heard and this should [238:37] totally justify Rolex isn't happy that [238:40] they're not able to make enough watches [238:41] like I really maintain this steel [238:43] Daytona sure rainbow whatever sure those [238:47] can maintain rare but like submariners [238:50] should be on shelves or at least two [238:52] weeks later you should get a call about [238:53] it I heard that in 2020 to 2022 they [238:57] asked employees to come in six days a [238:58] week instead of five to meet [239:01] demand wow so if that's true that's a [239:04] pretty telling symbol about how they [239:07] feel about it yep now is a good time I [239:09] think to bring up there's one more piece [239:12] of Rolex the corporation [239:14] and the story which for the longest time [239:18] I think both of us were totally puzzled [239:20] by and when we were in Taipei to [239:22] interview Morris in January we went into [239:26] taipe 101 and we were walking around in [239:27] the shopping mall we walked by tutor [239:30] well it was an authorized dealer that [239:33] had both Rolex and tutor which I think a [239:35] lot of ads or maybe all ads if you take [239:38] Rolex you have to take tutor yes so what [239:41] is [239:42] tutor tutor [239:44] uh like the British royal tutor family [239:49] is rolex's sub brand sort of technically [239:52] it's another company owned by the Hans [239:54] wisdorf Foundation but in practice yeah [239:57] sure this is rolex's sub brand and B to [240:00] your earlier point if you're going to [240:01] make an argument that Rolex does not [240:03] want to be a luxury company a textbook [240:05] violation of the luxury strategy is to [240:07] have a sub brand right and so we're like [240:09] what the hell is this tutor thing why do [240:12] they have it and if you look at the [240:13] tutor products a lot of them like are [240:17] the Rolex products dude okay so tutor [240:20] was started by Hans wilsdorf in 1926 [240:23] with the stated purpose to be a more [240:25] affordable brand to Rolex while [240:27] maintaining high quality standards and [240:29] originally they actually were Rolex [240:31] cases and bracelets but with [240:33] off-the-shelf movements from a [240:34] third-party vendor ETA which is actually [240:37] now part of Swatch group versus the ones [240:39] that Rolex was getting from agler youd [240:41] look at it and it would look like a sub [240:44] totally you walk into a tutor authorized [240:47] dealer you go on the website and you're [240:48] like wow that sure looks like a GMT [240:51] master and that looks like an Explorer [240:52] and that looks like a Submariner right [240:55] yeah even today it almost feels like [240:57] knockof except that the Rolex knockoffs [241:00] are shockingly good you go a decade [241:02] owning a knockoff and not realizing it [241:04] yep yep so for the longest time you know [241:06] I at least I think you were too like [241:08] what is going on here and then we [241:10] realized the real limiting factor to [241:13] Rolex production is movements movements [241:16] are the hard thing to make and all their [241:18] movements are igler movements you know [241:20] now in-house Rolex movements tutor does [241:23] not use agler movements does not use [241:24] Rolex movements they use third party [241:26] movements this is funny I hadn't had [241:28] this Insight yeah so tutor is kind of [241:30] the release valve here they can ramp up [241:33] production of the tutor quote unquote [241:36] Submariner or GMT master or Explorer [241:38] whatever with third party movements and [241:40] that's okay hm but what do you mean Rel [241:43] lease valve like customers can't get a [241:46] Rolex so they get a tutor I think that [241:48] probably rarely happens but to hans's [241:51] original vision of I want everybody to [241:53] be able to own a [241:55] Rolex this is the way that they can have [241:57] that happen I don't think that's it I [241:59] don't think they care at all about [242:01] that here's my logic it is a shockingly [242:06] low percent of rolex's production less [242:10] than 1% if that were true they would [242:12] sell they would sell tutors in volume [242:16] let's take a black Bay this is sort of [242:18] the tutor Submariner [242:21] $4,000 most people don't know or care [242:26] about the black Bay and if they walk in [242:28] thinking they want a Rolex they're not [242:30] walking out with a black Bay they sell [242:33] so few of these things so what are they [242:36] doing I think it's kind of an innovation [242:39] lab it's a way to protect rolex's brand [242:43] because if there's something something [242:44] new and interesting that might be a fad [242:46] that customers seem to be caring about [242:49] in the watch World tutor can go and [242:51] implement it and they can figure out how [242:53] to produce it if it's a flop that's fine [242:56] the watch of fishing Autos who know [242:58] about Tutor expect them to come out with [243:00] weird stuff that flops but if it's [243:02] durable then Rolex might get it in 5 to [243:06] 10 years with even more polish and [243:09] thoughtfulness they've tested all sorts [243:11] of stuff with tutor dial colors ceramic [243:13] bezel [243:14] titanium watches a lot of these now are [243:17] slowly making their way into Rolexes and [243:19] I think the key thing is they can use [243:22] tutor to go and compete with Omega tag [243:26] Hoyer in the midm market and tutor [243:29] basically can punch up so that Rolex [243:31] doesn't ever have to punch [243:33] down yeah yeah yeah I heard a great [243:36] phrase that the shield protects the [243:38] crown the tutor Shield protects the [243:40] Rolex Crown which makes total sense it's [243:43] so that they don't never have to risk [243:44] doing something dumb chasing a [243:46] competitor with Rolex and tutor can [243:48] always go figure it out I love it it's [243:51] like we used to think about the lp show [243:53] right it's our Innovation lab and we [243:55] still think about acq to that way this [243:56] is like if this is something we find [243:58] interesting but we wouldn't do it on the [243:59] main show or it's we just don't have a [244:01] place in our lineup for it yeah it makes [244:04] sense and it still provides value for [244:06] all sides like it's still great for [244:07] listeners it's still great for the guest [244:09] it's still great for us yeah yeah but [244:11] what is it it's less than 10% of our [244:13] shows listenership it's a great [244:15] experimentation ground yep the real [244:18] watch nerds will tell you that they [244:19] actually love tutors even though it's a [244:21] $4,000 watch the movements are [244:24] incredibly high quality and I think [244:27] consumers actually might be getting a [244:28] pretty good deal on tutor watches I mean [244:31] if I go out tomorrow and buy an Explorer [244:34] that's whatever it msrps for $8,000 or [244:37] something Rolex is making phenomenal [244:39] margins on that thing tutor they don't [244:42] sell that many of them so $4,000 price [244:44] point that's only [244:46] $2500 wholesale for a very high quality [244:50] movement and there's not a lot of them [244:53] made so economies of scale are really [244:55] low so whatever the fixed costs are [244:57] there's not that many watches to [244:58] amortize those across and I think [244:59] there's actually pretty significant [245:01] upfront fix costs so I don't know I'm [245:04] sure they're not losing money by having [245:06] tutor but it's a great deal for [245:08] customers y you're totally right I like [245:11] your rationale better than mine [245:14] well we both had a lot of good [245:15] conversations to try to figure this out [245:17] cuz you and I were texting each other we [245:18] were like what are they doing this is [245:20] the worst Luxury company ever [245:22] yeah okay well to wrap up at least the [245:25] history here level set us on today what [245:28] is the company today all right first of [245:30] all no one knows yeah [245:34] right but there's a lot of really good [245:36] ways to guess and two great shout outs [245:39] here one is to our good friend of the [245:42] show Arvin rnam he as usual did an [245:46] amazing long form write up of the [245:48] business of Rolex and he found awesome [245:51] public sources of data we'll link to [245:53] that in the show notes secondly the [245:55] industry report that everyone kind of [245:57] refers to is this Morgan Stanley Lux [246:00] consult report who sent us a copy in [246:02] preparation for the episode so we did [246:04] our own ways of trying to guess at these [246:07] numbers in the shape of the business [246:08] today and then we kind of looked at the [246:10] Morgan Stanley one and thought okay [246:11] what's the most reputable [246:14] well-connected person who's networking [246:16] with all the dealers coming up with I [246:19] would bet all this is within 10 to 20% [246:21] of right so I think they make about 1.1 [246:26] million watches a year maybe a little [246:28] higher margan Stanley said 1.24 so think [246:32] 1.1 to 1.2 million a year yep sounds [246:35] right to me for Revenue think about it [246:37] as around 11 billion in Revenue that [246:40] they do in sales so the interesting [246:44] thing is to start to look at market [246:45] share the share of the Swiss Watch [246:49] Market that Rolex has by revenue is [246:53] completely insane Morgan Stanley and Lux [246:56] consult estimate it at [246:59] 30.3% of the whole Swiss watch industry [247:02] no one else even comes close cardier and [247:05] Omega have 7.5% each truly the number [247:08] two and three player are at what is that [247:10] a quarter yeah the number two and three [247:13] player are at slightly less than half of [247:15] the scale of combined of Rolex yeah [247:18] exactly PCH Philipe is at 5.6% Again by [247:21] Revenue PCH Fleet makes freaking [247:23] expensive watches and they still only [247:25] are at 5.6% one 16 of Rolex otomar PGA [247:29] is at 5% and then you just have massive [247:31] fragmentation down from there Rolex [247:33] makes something that isn't crazy [247:36] expensive but it's pretty expensive and [247:39] they sell the absolute crap out of them [247:42] on a units basis that was Revenue that [247:44] we just talked about units they make [247:45] something like 15 times the number of [247:48] watches that pek FIP makes 22 times [247:51] autom rpga it's crazy people even talk [247:53] about these Brands like they're in the [247:56] same sentence just based on the volume [247:58] of output yeah they're totally different [248:01] segments of the market yes in terms of [248:03] price rolex's average selling price not [248:07] rolex's price but what the retailers [248:10] sell it for so around $113,000 aom RPA [248:13] is [248:14] $48,000 vason Constantine is $38,000 pek [248:18] Philipe [248:20] $40,000 I mean totally different [248:23] categories this is part of my argument [248:26] that Rolex really isn't luxury at all [248:28] they have hit the sweet spot in the [248:29] market if you think about a curve like [248:30] an XY AIS they have found the sweet spot [248:34] where you can maximize Revenue where you [248:36] just sell an absolute ton of watches [248:38] that let people Express something about [248:40] themselves but you stay away from that [248:43] in sanity of the true luxury Market that [248:45] limits you to a very small number of [248:47] production so they're almost like their [248:48] own thing entirely Y and it's [248:51] interesting right the secondary Market [248:55] really lets them do this I think yeah [248:59] because even though the model lineup of [249:02] Rolex has remained stable for so many [249:04] decades now or relatively stable for so [249:06] many decades because of the minute [249:10] changes in all the reference numbers in [249:13] the models you actually have incredible [249:15] scarcity and Rarity for for people who [249:17] care you segment the market yeah certain [249:19] flavors and that can become the multi [249:22] 100,000 watch market for Rolex the [249:24] multi-million dollar watch market for [249:25] Rolex they can participate in the same [249:28] thing that PK and otmar Etc are [249:32] participating in just do it through the [249:33] secondary Market or even special [249:35] editions in the primary I mean you look [249:37] at the rainbow dial Daytona oh the Emoji [249:40] watch right that thing is pretty baller [249:43] they can do these extremely you know [249:46] they play in pect Philip land both to [249:48] your point in the secondary Market but [249:50] also in their sort of limited edition [249:53] special watch Market yeah but I think if [249:55] they weren't as strong a player in the [249:57] secondary Market because obviously they [249:58] don't really monetize that directly [250:00] right I think they wouldn't then have [250:01] the permission to go put out these [250:03] special editions that sell for couple [250:05] hundred thousand in the primary market [250:07] right the thing they've done so genius [250:10] and beautifully well is to create [250:12] something that the the whole world knows [250:14] about that everybody looks at as a sign [250:17] of success that you've made it that [250:20] you're like those divers and you're like [250:22] those pilots and you're like those [250:24] explorers if you have one and because [250:28] it's universally agreed upon AS Global [250:31] wealth grew they basically just got to [250:33] index it yeah think about it right like [250:36] I certainly don't want to imply that a [250:38] Rolex is not a lot of money it is a lot [250:41] of money that isn't accessible to the [250:42] vast majority of people yep however [250:46] let's say you work a solid white collar [250:48] job in America these days you get a big [250:50] promotion you have a big life event you [250:53] have a kid Etc is it reasonable that you [250:57] could purchase a Rolex it's right on the [250:59] edge of [251:00] unreasonable which is exactly where they [251:02] need to be to have this Market exactly [251:04] if you make sacrifices you can probably [251:07] do it yeah depending on what your salary [251:09] is yeah I mean truly since the 1950s [251:13] there is a wealth class that has emerged [251:15] doctors lawyers Finance people recently [251:19] tech people if they can really figure [251:20] out that market that absolutely can go [251:24] buy a 10 plus thousand watch if it's the [251:28] thing they choose to buy yep like a [251:30] Porsche a 911 is not that is completely [251:33] inaccessible it is a impractical car for [251:36] 10 times as much money y it's a pretty [251:39] sweet little market to have that it's [251:42] this almost unreasonable thing that a [251:45] whole lot of people can buy and to your [251:47] point about the confounding of like [251:48] luxury I still maintain that it is [251:51] managed in the same fashion as the [251:53] world's best luxury Brands however it [251:56] kind of sounds a lot like a BMW to me or [251:58] a Mercedes a Mercedes or a [252:01] BMW again most people can't afford them [252:05] and don't buy them or lease them but for [252:07] a lot of people well beyond the 1% if [252:10] it's something you really want in your [252:12] life there's prob a way you can make it [252:14] happen yeah well most people Finance [252:15] BMWs but nobody's well I think people [252:18] probably Finance Rolexes that's yeah I [252:20] think there's ways to finance Rolexes [252:23] yeah it's interesting I did some [252:25] thinking about allegories to other [252:27] categories like handbags or fashion or [252:29] cars it's quite tempting to say that [252:31] Rolex is Louis Vuitton and that Paddock [252:33] is Hermes but Rolex isn't quite Louis [252:36] Vuitton that's not giving Rolex enough [252:38] credit no it's not managed like lvmh at [252:40] all yeah they are very careful stewards [252:43] of the brand in a way that Louis Vuitton [252:45] will slap it on t-shirts my best [252:47] comparison that I think I came up with [252:49] is Rolex is Porsche and I know they're [252:52] different categories of price but like [252:54] cars are expensive things and you do [252:56] need one anyway it's real scale [252:58] manufacturing with a highquality [253:00] engineered product with extremely good [253:03] margins differentiated by their brand [253:06] you stick to six core models you iterate [253:09] and refine each one of them once or [253:10] twice a decade the submariners the 911 [253:13] you can buy what your grandpa had 50 [253:15] years ago and it still looks like that [253:17] modernized and it's actually a pretty [253:19] good comp to call pchf Ferrari yeah [253:22] totally we don't care what you think we [253:23] are making this for us we are making it [253:25] for collectors it's very small volume [253:28] production very small volume production [253:30] it's five times more expensive totally [253:33] yeah and that's a completely different [253:34] Market Ferrari Lamborghini you're [253:36] talking a Million Dollar Plus cars is a [253:39] very very different thing than an [253:40] $80,000 car right bottom line of what [253:44] I'll stick to is Paddock is Ferrari and [253:46] Porsche is Rolex and it's a really good [253:49] business to be in yes yes I mean it's [253:52] kind of Ideal to your point they have [253:54] found the ideal point on the curve here [253:56] I think that's it they multiplied two [253:58] pretty big numbers together instead of [254:00] one big number and one small number yeah [254:02] and the way it manifests in watches is [254:05] unique and different than other markets [254:07] too 30% of the Swiss Watch industry [254:11] other categories don't have this kind of [254:13] outsized winner even in handbags where [254:15] Louis Vuitton is so I mean they print [254:17] money print money somewhere around 20% I [254:22] think Rolex defines the category of [254:26] watches heres doesn't do this Louis [254:29] Vuitton doesn't do this Porsche doesn't [254:31] do this those are all much more [254:32] fragmented markets y totally and for [254:35] people who think we're like blowing [254:37] smoke here of how is Rolex not a you [254:39] know high-end luxury Rolex we were just [254:42] saying average price of 13,000 you look [254:44] at Rashard m i mean this is like a [254:48] 280,000 maybe 300,000 average price [254:51] point Jacob and co uh 100,000 aumn rpga [254:56] that we were just talking about van Clee [254:58] protectful Vashon Constantine Blanc Pon [255:02] PJ these are all meaningfully more [255:05] expensive average price points than [255:07] Rolex Rolex is the name you know but [255:09] it's not the most expensive watch by a [255:13] you could buy and there's 15 other BRS [255:16] that are higher end y but success in [255:19] America in owning an ice watch is a [255:21] Rolex yep I think that's what's so [255:23] amazingly unique about this company yes [255:27] okay so employee count they have about [255:30] 16,000 people worldwide about 9,000 of [255:33] those are in Switzerland I had a lot of [255:35] fun trying to size this Market trying to [255:38] figure out Swiss watches versus watches [255:40] the Swiss Watch industry is some like [255:43] $35 billion wholesale before the retail [255:46] markup across all players including the [255:49] super high-end and Omega and Swatch and [255:52] everyone else Rolex does about 11 [255:54] billion of that 35 billion which we've [255:57] talked about holy crap but where gets [255:59] very interesting is when we zoom out [256:01] from just Swiss watches Switzerland [256:04] produces 2% of the world's watches 2% [256:09] yeah and everything else is a $10 piece [256:11] of crap and to put some real numbers on [256:12] on that Switzerland makes 177 million [256:15] watches a year and most estimates are [256:18] that there are between 700 and 900 [256:21] million watches made in the world every [256:23] year 7 to 900 million including smart [256:26] watches cheap $25 watches you have it so [256:31] this 2% of units sold that happens in [256:34] Switzerland accounts for [256:36] 45% of the dollars in all watches smart [256:40] watches timex's all the stuff that's [256:43] made in Hong Kong and China I mean 2% of [256:47] units are made in Switzerland and 45% of [256:50] the revenue is captured there totally [256:53] Apple alone ships way more Apple watches [256:56] every year than the entire Swiss watch [256:58] industry way more oh absolutely [257:00] estimates on the Smartwatch industry are [257:02] like 80 million SmartWatches a year yep [257:05] and I think Apple depending on the year [257:07] does like 30 to 50 yeah it's funny this [257:10] 17 million watches that includes a whole [257:13] bunch of swatches and fashion watches [257:15] and you know Switzerland makes a lot of [257:16] Courts also so it is true that 45% of [257:21] the dollars come from 17 million watches [257:24] out of 7 to 900 million but it's [257:26] actually even more concentrated than [257:27] just that 17 million cuz none of the [257:30] courts watches contribute that much to [257:31] the revenue yep to make that point [257:34] specifically 86% of Switzerland's watch [257:37] export comes from mechanical watches [257:40] that whole move in the courts crisis to [257:42] lean hard into mechanical really really [257:44] really worked from a dollar perspective [257:46] so 40% of all watch Revenue in the world [257:51] came from Swiss Mechanicals [257:54] Mechanicals amazing so then you start to [257:57] look at net profit well Rolex has 30% of [258:00] the Swiss market by Revenue but probably [258:03] even more by profit oh yeah it's totally [258:05] an apple situation here Morgan Stanley [258:08] and Lux consult estimate that of the $35 [258:10] billion in total revenue for Swiss [258:13] manufacturers there's about 11.8 billion [258:16] of total profit implying that the [258:18] industrywide operating margin is [258:21] 29% okay okay do you think Rolex has an [258:25] operating margin of just 29% hell no and [258:29] frankly there's a lot of people in this [258:30] category who have negative operating [258:31] margin they're these big conglomerates [258:33] that are trying to get into watches [258:34] they're not generating a lot of profit [258:35] there right now there are a lot of [258:37] estimates between 30 and 40% I would bet [258:40] it's way closer to 40% for rolex's [258:43] operating margin my best guess is that [258:46] while they account for 30% of the [258:48] industry's revenue it's in the [258:49] neighborhood of 40% of the total Swiss [258:52] profit yep totally agree they're also so [258:56] vertically integrated except for retail [258:58] that you have to imagine that ultimately [259:00] that would create a better profit [259:01] structure too has to be so then you get [259:04] to balance sheet this is truly anyone's [259:08] guess they're spitting off something [259:10] like three3 and5 billion a year maybe [259:13] more maybe four yep and they've done [259:17] call it 2 to three billion for at least [259:19] a decade or two and so it's not crazy to [259:22] think that they've piled up $50 billion [259:25] plus in cash even before investment [259:28] returns it's totally an Ikea situation [259:31] there's tons and tons of cash sitting [259:33] there and in Ikea we could see it in [259:35] annual reports I have no idea what rox's [259:40] assets look like so the Hans Foundation [259:43] of course doesn't publish any numbers [259:45] publicly but they have said and people [259:48] have estimated that they give away [259:50] around 300 million Swiss Franks every [259:53] year which by your numbers would be [259:55] about one tenth of the cash that the [259:57] business is generating or less and still [260:00] that makes them one of the most active [260:03] annual dispersing foundations on the [260:05] planet it's unbelievable and it's a very [260:07] broad base of philanthropic initiatives [260:10] environmental science Arts and it's not [260:13] like they're just doing things that help [260:14] Rolex this is like a very legitimate [260:17] charitable foundation not to mention it [260:20] seems like they're just giving money [260:21] away all over Geneva yes this is the [260:24] coolest thing about it a core part of [260:26] the mission of the foundation that Hans [260:28] put in its bylaws is to help the city [260:32] and people of Geneva and so I think they [260:35] found sort of over the years come to a [260:37] belief that the best way to do that [260:39] often is just giving people money if [260:41] people need money family can't make rent [260:44] have a health issue come up or something [260:46] they can apply for Grants and they'll [260:48] just give them money and they don't make [260:49] a big deal about it it's pretty [260:51] interesting one thing they definitely do [260:54] with their money again I think it's safe [260:56] to just ballpark there's 50 billion [260:59] before investment returns sitting there [261:01] but again plus or minus 50% they own [261:05] some of the most expensive real estate [261:07] in the world they own their own [261:09] buildings in Switzerland they own in the [261:12] Bond Street house area in London some [261:15] really really Prime real estate in Milan [261:18] in Melbourne in Tokyo famously in New [261:21] York City there's a gorgeous building [261:23] that they're building about a block from [261:25] Rockefeller Center and Radio City Music [261:27] Hall I mean the old Rolex building was [261:29] nice this new one that's going to be [261:31] done next year the architectural [261:32] drawings look unbelievable in Manhattan [261:36] I mean they own a building in [261:40] Manhattan hey you got to put the money [261:42] somewhere right real estate is good [261:43] place as any they own a lot of real [261:45] estate in Geneva they own a big service [261:47] center in Dallas the school in [261:50] Pennsylvania hilariously they just [261:52] bought the building where Omega has [261:54] their flagship store in Geneva so Omega [261:57] makes a rent check out to Rolex every [262:00] month amazing that's not in the category [262:03] of asset management but it is in the [262:05] category of spite I don't know yeah it's [262:08] pretty funny yeah 100% safe assumption [262:11] that there's a boatload of money sitting [262:13] there y so that's the shape of the [262:15] business today the question is how would [262:18] you value it If This Were a publicly [262:20] traded company today you could look at [262:22] it based on a sector multiple of other [262:24] watch companies but come on applying the [262:27] Swatch multiple is not the right way to [262:29] Value Rolex maybe PCH Philipe since it's [262:32] also a vertically integrated very strong [262:34] brand but it's privately held we have no [262:36] idea PCH phip is very Roxy in a lot of [262:39] ways other than the fact that they're [262:41] multiplying a number by a small number [262:43] instead of two pretty big numbers you [262:45] could look at conglomerates like lvmh or [262:47] richmont but there's too much other [262:49] stuff in there I mean the Rolex is a [262:51] pure playay mono brand with the leading [262:53] brand in the sector there's only one [262:55] comp for this [262:56] business there's maybe two with Porsche [262:59] and Hermes but I think you're right [263:02] that's Hermes I'm assuming that's where [263:04] you're going that's where I was going [263:05] yeah Porsche trades at 15x earnings [263:08] Hermes trades at 60x earnings and my [263:11] best estimates on Rolex growth rate is [263:13] actually in the same neighborhood as [263:15] hermes's growth rate and hermes's margin [263:17] profile is also pretty similar to a [263:19] 40ish per operating margin yeah that's [263:23] where this business differs from Porsche [263:25] right I actually think if growth rates [263:27] close and if the operating margin's [263:29] close and if it's a single premium brand [263:33] that's the best in the sector is the [263:35] same you totally could value it at what [263:38] Hermes is valued at which is roughly a [263:40] 20x revenue multiple or a 60x earnings [263:43] multiple right but we have no idea what [263:44] rolex's earnings are but I think you can [263:46] kind of back into rolex's earnings being [263:48] like in the neighborhood of 3 to four [263:50] billion a year yep pre-tax pre all this [263:53] stuff I think but you're right maybe you [263:56] just put it on the revenue [263:59] multiple well okay here would be an [264:01] argument for putting it on the revenue [264:03] multiple again not that you could ever [264:04] do this because this business is never [264:06] get a trade but there are a million [264:08] things that Rolex could do differently [264:09] to improve their operating margins and [264:11] they're just not going too there's the [264:13] long-term aspect of like well if they [264:14] were to do that then that would erod [264:16] their positioning in the space right so [264:18] all this to say the range is too wide to [264:21] just give you a single number and say [264:22] here's what I think Rolex is worth but [264:25] there are plausible scenarios all the [264:26] way from 4050 billion to 200 billion [264:30] agree before assets yep that's just [264:33] Enterprise Value yep before any cash [264:36] they have in the balance he real estate [264:38] who God knows what other Investments [264:39] they have [264:42] this is insane there's no way that this [264:44] business is worth 40 I don't know if [264:46] it's worth 200 but it's worth 100 plus [264:49] zero doubt in my mind and before assets [264:52] I mean keep in mind market cap includes [264:54] assets and so if this thing were to [264:56] publicly trade listing with this assets [264:59] it's [265:00] probably top 50 companies in the world [265:04] yeah I mean again Hermes has a 292 [265:07] billion Euro market cap and depending on [265:10] what the assets are within X yeah [265:13] there's a chance this thing's worth more [265:14] than American Express or Goldman Sachs [265:17] or adobe or Pepsi or Disney or Qualcomm [265:22] or AT&T kind of like the Rolex business [265:24] better than a lot of those [265:27] businesses all that to say this all [265:29] feels profane because GH they would [265:32] never yeah can't trade this thing yeah I [265:34] think the issue if I were to buy any [265:37] shares of Rolex would be that I could [265:39] never do anything with them because I [265:40] could never sell the shares [265:42] well you'd have to ask yourself why am I [265:44] getting these shares who is selling them [265:46] to me right is it a [265:48] fake which by the way we didn't talk [265:50] about that and I don't think it's worth [265:51] much detail but I think actually for a [265:53] long time the fake Market was great for [265:55] Rolex M interesting just that Rolex [265:59] certainly was and I I'm sure probably [266:01] still is the most faked certainly watch [266:03] brand if not any brand in the world Y [266:06] and I think that was good for them not [266:11] so much recently cuz it raised awareness [266:13] while they were still raising awareness [266:15] and then building The Prestige of the [266:16] brand I'd say like '90s and maybe early [266:19] 2000s probably a good thing yep you go [266:22] to New York City to hope to get to Canal [266:23] Street to try to buy some fake Rolexes [266:25] on your trip to New York I think that's [266:27] totally right exactly it just adds to [266:29] the myth in the legend yeah but now now [266:33] yeah probably not a big deal it's also [266:35] so weird that these fakes are so good I [266:37] mean you can go to like reasonably [266:38] reputable online retailers and not be [266:41] sure that you're getting an authentic [266:43] Rolex I mean a lot of times it's like [266:45] the wrong movement in the right case or [266:47] part of its counterfeit but not all of [266:49] it all right should we move into [266:50] analysis yeah let's do it all right [266:53] power so this is where we use Hamilton [266:56] helmer's framework of seven powers to [266:58] analyze what is it that helps a business [267:01] to achieve persistent differential [267:03] returns or what makes this business more [267:06] profitable than their closest competitor [267:09] sustainably [267:10] [Laughter] [267:13] so branding quite the task for us here [267:16] and should we just move on or uh just [267:18] for new listeners the seven options are [267:20] counter positioning scale economies [267:21] Network economies switching costs [267:24] process power branding and cornered [267:26] resources I think the interesting thing [267:28] is to stack them against who is their [267:31] closest competitor and in some senses [267:34] it's [267:34] pefully in some senses I would say it's [267:37] Omega yep in some senses it's Apple that [267:41] I completely disagree on [267:42] I'll go to the mattresses on relics it's [267:45] not a time telling device this is [267:47] nothing to do with function totally [267:48] agree however there's only so much real [267:50] estate space on your wrist and most [267:52] people are not going to wear two things [267:54] on each wrist right I've been dual [267:56] watching all week one on each wrist and [267:58] it's a little much oh do you feel a [268:01] little funny feel a little funny you're [268:03] right it is competitive for RIS real [268:05] estate and it's kind of irrelevant that [268:07] they both tell the time yeah neither of [268:09] them tells the time right one is a piece [268:11] of craftsmanship on my wrist and the [268:12] other is notification center [268:15] yes totally and fitness yeah yeah yeah [268:19] that is actually a huge reason I wear my [268:20] Apple watch and I've worn it every day [268:22] to bed for nine years same yeah just [268:25] that instrumenting of both calories and [268:28] sleep yeah same every day for years and [268:31] years yeah okay so that's competitive [268:33] but interestingly I don't think about [268:35] the prices of those since they don't [268:38] achieve the same function I don't [268:41] compare their prices so when you're [268:43] thinking about what enables Apple's [268:45] profits versus rolex's profits I mean if [268:47] I go buy a Rolex I will pay about 10 [268:51] times more than I paid for my Apple [268:53] watch yeah in some ways this is a silly [268:56] exercise because the whole point of the [268:57] last God knows how many hours here is [268:59] they actually don't have any competitors [269:02] so there's nobody for them to counter [269:04] position against right I think the [269:07] interesting thing is to think about in [269:09] the 40s 50s and 60s what was the source [269:12] of their power what activities were they [269:14] performing that gave them power because [269:18] today is Almost Boring it's just [269:20] branding I think yeah branding and just [269:23] yeah category ownership yeah there just [269:26] is nobody else in [269:29] 1985 it was interestingly like capital [269:33] structure I mean why did Omega do dumb [269:36] stuff and Rolex didn't that doesn't [269:38] really fit into this framework cuz [269:40] that's not about strategy that's about [269:42] tactics that's a failure of execution to [269:44] make the wrong decision yep okay so yeah [269:47] I think maybe the more interesting [269:48] question is rewind back to the lifestyle [269:51] era post World War II when they're [269:53] launching all the professional watches [269:55] the sport watches was that counter [269:57] positioning versus the rest of the [269:58] industry I don't think so because I [270:00] don't think they were doing anything [270:02] that the rest of the industry couldn't I [270:04] mean they were executing really well on [270:06] a brand strategy that was really [270:09] cohesive with their product strategy [270:11] around the professional watches but I [270:13] don't know that their competitors [270:15] couldn't do that there was some [270:16] structural reason why they couldn't I [270:18] mean courts was counterposed against [270:20] Switzerland but I don't think Rolex was [270:23] counterposed against other Swiss I think [270:26] it was tactics yep good point I agree [270:28] the only other one I could see on here [270:30] is once they hit escape velocity in the [270:32] 90s the scale economies is a big one I [270:35] mean the reason why they truly are among [270:39] the very highest quality watches in the [270:41] world is because they throw their scale [270:43] economies around they do absolutely [270:45] unreasonable things to engineer and [270:49] build and test these watches that other [270:51] people in the industry just can't yep [270:54] and their leverage over retailers you [270:56] know too I think at the end of the day [270:58] though I maintain uh we can debate the [271:01] semantics of luxury products price [271:03] points Etc this company has managed like [271:06] the best luxury companies and that [271:09] Playbook sort of exists outside of seven [271:12] Powers I know it is the goal of managing [271:16] a successful luxury brand is to manage [271:19] for the long term and by the long term I [271:21] mean like centuries and so you're [271:25] actually willing to sacrifice huge [271:27] amounts of profits to do so oh right it [271:31] would be wrong to look at this year's or [271:33] even the next five years operating [271:34] profits when analyzing a business like [271:36] this totally you almost want to have a [271:38] worse margin structure at any given [271:40] moment especially during good times if [271:43] it strengthens your intangible asset huh [271:45] that's an interesting Insight okay [271:48] Playbook Playbook if I were to pose the [271:51] question to you how does Rolex have 30% [271:54] market share of dollars when the next [271:56] highest only has 7 and a half% what's [271:59] the main reason why are they able to [272:01] have such a massive lead in this [272:04] industry and maybe let me lead the [272:06] witness with like a little bit of what [272:08] I'm stuck on when did Rolex actually [272:10] take risk [272:12] because typically outsize winners with [272:14] outsize rewards come from doing [272:17] something risky or [272:18] counterintuitive at the right [272:21] time a lot of the time I think Rolex [272:23] just made a rational decision and [272:27] executed better than anyone yeah I'm [272:29] thinking about the you know the three [272:30] putt to get on the wrist of Eisenhower [272:33] or had really good ideas or the [272:35] lifestyle marketing and yeah working [272:37] with both Jay Walter Thompson and IMG [272:40] and the you know testimony [272:42] yeah they just did better than everyone [272:44] else and that Advantage compounded over [272:46] time right it wasn't trying was it [272:48] really a risk how they played the courts [272:50] crisis I don't know they just they [272:53] looked around and they were in a [272:54] privileged position where they had the [272:55] resources and the structure to do that [272:57] and same with 2008 did they take a risk [273:00] not really they did the logical thing [273:02] and they had the structure and resources [273:03] to pull it off to go hard into Marketing [273:06] in the United States I think a lot of [273:08] the time they just had resources and [273:11] structure [273:12] that let them find these opportunities [273:15] to do a rational logical lowrisk thing [273:19] and continue to pull away from [273:21] competitors maybe it's a little [273:22] dangerous to speak for Rolex because [273:24] Rolex doesn't speak and nobody speaks [273:26] for them but I suspect if they were to [273:29] answer the question they would say some [273:32] version of [273:35] continuity yeah not that there haven't [273:37] been major changes and different eras of [273:40] the company but but they have stuck with [273:44] a strategy and a positioning and a [273:47] product lineup and a culture longer than [273:50] just about anybody else yeah you know I [273:53] was reflecting on the question the one [273:55] time I think they really did take risk [273:57] was the riskwatch order from agler yeah [273:59] yeah yeah that's not the answer to why [274:02] they have 30% market share today but [274:04] that was huge yeah that's kind of the [274:06] old Le real bet the company move and [274:09] when they did that that huge order I [274:11] don't think we talked talked about this [274:12] it was the order that they placed was [274:15] for five times the capital that they had [274:17] in the business God so either it was a [274:20] multi-year order or they financed it and [274:22] probably both yep and I'm sure agler [274:25] extended them some credit yep huh but [274:28] yeah since then you know they they made [274:30] really really shrewd decisions executed [274:33] immensely well I think that's the answer [274:36] feels very Swiss yes yes it does all [274:39] right another weird Playbook question I [274:41] have for you occasionally they do these [274:44] weird exceptions to the rule like the [274:47] jigsaw puzzle day date with the Emojis [274:51] yes yeah the Emoji watch or uh Domino's [274:55] Pizza [274:57] deal they've got just enough Whimsy is [275:00] it Whimsy is it like it's not a cohesive [275:04] weirdness that's the thing you look at [275:06] Hermes and you're like oh all of the fun [275:08] that you're having is the same sort of [275:10] fun this is like once every 10 years [275:12] they make a befuddling decision that [275:14] doesn't seem super impactful on their [275:16] strategy so I guess it was fine yep [275:20] tutor with Tiger Woods as the [275:23] spokesperson why would you blow Tiger [275:25] Woods on tutor there just occasionally [275:28] these very odd like how did this make it [275:30] out the door and things about Rolex and [275:32] I don't really have an answer for how [275:33] that happens y sometimes I think it [275:37] works really well I don't know sales [275:39] numbers nobody does but the relaunch of [275:41] the mil G awesome great decision yeah [275:45] totally it's also funny that the way [275:47] that they do product naming man the [275:49] milous used to basically be a Submariner [275:52] and when they relaunched it it was [275:53] basically an Explorer the only thing it [275:55] has in common is the name and the fact [275:57] that it can go up to a thousand gaus [276:01] similar to the Explorer 2 completely new [276:04] watch different than the Explorer the [276:06] GMT Master 2 basically a GMT Master [276:10] exactly what is too mean when they [276:12] release a sequel to A watch hulc come [276:15] the deep sea sea dweller is both a deep [276:18] sea and a sea dweller their product [276:21] naming is confusing yes all right we [276:25] touched on SmartWatches a little bit [276:27] it's worth a minute of analysis here the [276:30] Apple watch comes out in [276:31] 2014 fascinatingly and I'm not sure if [276:34] this is counterintuitive or not I don't [276:35] remember 2014 thinking about the watch [276:38] industry cuz I didn't but was the best [276:42] thing to ever happen to Rolex aom RPG [276:45] pek Etc a huge amount of awareness [276:48] raised for the category oh now I wear a [276:50] thing on my wrist oh I spent hundreds of [276:52] dollars on the thing would I be open to [276:53] spending thousands of dollars on the [276:55] thing huh I never even thought about [276:56] that before I've had a a smartphone for [276:59] a long time and so I haven't been [277:01] wearing anything on my wrist uh yeah [277:03] sure maybe oh other people I look up to [277:05] are doing that okay yeah I guess I'm [277:08] potentially into going up one level even [277:11] from a smartwatch I mean it was this [277:14] very strange progression that definitely [277:16] helped them however it destroyed low-end [277:20] luxury long jeene TSO tag Hoyer anybody [277:24] that was making a quote unquote luxury [277:26] mechanical watch between $500 and [277:28] $1,000 why toast complete toast it [277:31] doesn't signal anything I spent the same [277:33] amount of money on this obsolete thing [277:35] that I could have spent on an Apple [277:37] Watch why are you stupid it's funny [277:40] there's a great New York Times piece uh [277:43] before the Apple watch that quotes a [277:46] source at Apple as saying that Johnny IV [277:48] was bragging around uh around the [277:51] company about how the forthcoming watch [277:54] from Apple was going to destroy the [277:56] Swiss Watch industry really well I guess [277:59] the addition they really did think they [278:01] were playing here right well it's [278:02] hilarious because he was both 100% [278:06] spoton And 100% wrong he was spot on [278:10] that like you were saying that sort of [278:12] lower fat end of the market in the Swiss [278:15] industry to the extent it even existed [278:17] after the quarts crisis this was the [278:19] total final nail in the coffin but for [278:21] the ti end like luxury Apple watch [278:24] Edition you know gold Apple watch get [278:26] out of here right yeah it's crazy at [278:28] Apple watch it's weird how they managed [278:31] to decimate the low end but no one took [278:34] the addition seriously the Apple watch [278:36] addressed a completely new market so [278:39] high-end watch people weren't going [278:41] going to buy an Apple Watch period but [278:44] for all the new people who were willing [278:46] to buy an Apple Watch there was no [278:47] reason to buy a $10,000 watch yep and [278:50] for a small subet of those people who [278:53] bought Apple watches it then became the [278:56] Gateway into the high-end mechanical [278:58] watch industry and again because of the [279:00] way the market works it doesn't matter [279:02] that that's a very small number of [279:03] people those very small number of people [279:05] are spending a lot of money yep that's [279:07] exactly right the other thing that it [279:09] destroyed is the fashion watch industry [279:10] we didn't touch on this episode just cuz [279:12] it was one more story that we couldn't [279:13] fit in but the whole Swatch Swatch group [279:17] is an amazing story yeah fossil who else [279:21] guess I mean in the 90s these quartz [279:23] watches suddenly made $25 watches [279:25] possible and like that market went [279:29] entirely away with the Apple watch the [279:32] uh the Fossil watch stock went down 99% [279:35] since the Apple watch came out yeah that [279:38] product category doesn't exist anymore [279:40] yep you know it would be amazing and [279:42] will never happen you know how uh car [279:45] manufacturers except for Tesla have [279:47] carplay and Android auto yeah there [279:49] needs to be Apple watch play for [279:53] high-end mechanical [279:55] watches never going to happen of course [279:57] but I would love that I don't even [279:59] understand what you mean by that wear [280:01] Rolex to get the fitness tracking oh oh [280:04] that's funny the question is is there [280:07] someone at Rolex who's working on this [280:09] do they treat it the same way they treat [280:10] quartz or do they feel entirely safe is [280:13] there a research lab somewhere that's [280:15] trying to figure out what a Rolex [280:16] Smartwatch looks like I'm sure there is [280:19] and they're never going to release it [280:20] unless they absolutely have to no those [280:22] people must be Paras around the [280:26] building you know it brings up this [280:28] interesting talking about SmartWatches [280:30] kind of makes me remember this moment [280:33] that we didn't talk about was when the [280:34] smartphone came out and really when cell [280:37] phones came so think like the [280:39] popularization of cell phones 200 2ish [280:42] 2003 is and certainly by 2010 when [280:45] smartphones were popular that was the [280:47] moment you didn't need to watch anymore [280:49] yeah but in the very recent history pre [280:52] 2005 you needed a watch everybody needed [280:55] a watch and now it's just a thing you [280:57] don't need there's no more functioning [281:00] Alibi for this category everybody needs [281:03] a car yeah you can go spend a lot of [281:04] money and buy a 911 but you have the [281:06] functioning Alibi of I needed a car and [281:08] I wanted a a car I liked driving or like [281:11] tell that to your spouse look I I needed [281:14] this cuz I I need a purse I got to carry [281:15] stuff with me yeah nobody for any reason [281:18] needs a watch it it has no functioning [281:21] Alibi anymore and so it is a pure [281:25] display of I feel like a better version [281:28] of me when I wear this and that's the [281:29] only reason why I'm owning this thing [281:32] and and like oh I love the gears and [281:36] like and I do truly like I the [281:38] engineering is so unbelievable to me but [281:40] it's a much weaker thinner Alibi than [281:43] these other [281:45] categories which probably also uh is uh [281:48] no accident that it coincides with with [281:50] its real takeoff as a luxury item yeah [281:54] okay so in the vein of a functioning [281:57] Alibi here's a question I have for you [282:00] why did this become the status symbol [282:03] associated with success this 200 geared [282:08] steel thing that I wear on my wrist like [282:10] why not something else what was it about [282:13] this object easy answer [282:15] obvious it was for basically the [282:18] entirety of the 20th century the only [282:20] acceptable form of male [282:23] jewelry not to say that the women's [282:26] watch Market wasn't also big and [282:27] important it was but it kind of also [282:32] bled into the jewelry market in the [282:34] man's world like like this is men's [282:37] jewelry yeah you could wear your wedding [282:38] ring and your watch the only broadly [282:40] social acceptable form of jewelry for [282:42] men H that's interesting and for a long [282:45] time it was well you need to have one [282:47] yeah there's an alibi there's a [282:48] functioning Alibi but there's not for [282:50] jewelry for the Practical man who [282:52] doesn't need jewelry so I was a little [282:55] bit setting you up so then the follow-up [282:57] question is can a status symbol stay a [283:00] status symbol even after you get a [283:02] hundred years away from the last time it [283:05] had utility 30 to 40 years is one thing [283:08] I remember my parent I remember my [283:10] grandparent but but what about five [283:12] generations after anyone really [283:15] legitimately believes that the utility [283:18] of a watch is Justified right is there a [283:22] risk that this becomes a version of the [283:24] home telephone or something like that at [283:26] some point or the fax machine or of U I [283:31] don't I don't think pieces of [283:33] Technology yeah maybe that's a bad [283:35] analogy I'm trying to think of something [283:37] else that had utility then became a [283:40] status symbol [283:41] then we got so far away from its utility [283:44] that it just failed to be a credible [283:49] thing that people decided to use for [283:50] their status anymore it just became too [283:52] thin of an alibi well maybe to uh my [283:55] previous answer maybe over time these [283:58] just become bracelets and jewelry H yep [284:02] I could see that I don't know I don't [284:04] know the real answer to this but I'm [284:05] trying to think of other I don't think [284:06] it's happening anytime soon though right [284:08] all right I've got just two more one we [284:10] talked a lot about slow iterations and [284:12] don't change the line too much the real [284:15] answer here is that it helps your [284:18] customers feel smart there is Great [284:21] Value in the fact that when I look down [284:23] at my wrist and you look down at yours [284:25] right now the thing that they're selling [284:26] today is pretty much the same thing and [284:29] because of that it means I made a good [284:31] decision 20 years ago when I bought this [284:33] and of course I didn't buy this one and [284:35] you didn't buy that one you feel really [284:36] dumb if you bought a turnograph yes and [284:39] you'd feel really dumb if you bought the [284:41] iPhone 3G and then two years later the [284:44] iPhone 5S is out and you're like whoa [284:48] that was a dumb decision to buy that [284:49] product or at least that now I own [284:51] something that's not valuable it helps [284:53] rolex's long-term value to help their [284:56] customers feel like they made a good [284:57] decision when they bought the product [284:59] yep so then the last one have you ever [285:04] heard the phrase former Rolex [285:08] employee no I'm sure that's by Design [285:12] yeah I only did once in the research you [285:14] start working at Rolex and you stay [285:16] there and it's a loyalty thing but it's [285:18] also an incentives thing I think they [285:19] pay very well great benefits great perks [285:22] you're at the best company in the [285:23] industry this works really well for [285:25] their secrecy and they're actually doing [285:27] cuttingedge stuff it's not like you're [285:29] just sitting there you know cranking the [285:31] machine every day that's right it's [285:33] absolutely right although I mean I'm [285:35] sure a lot of people are sitting there [285:37] doing the you know final finishing of [285:40] their 10,000th Submariner they've done [285:43] final finishing on oh yeah but it's [285:45] constantly changing the parts that are [285:47] going into it how it's done you know all [285:48] of it yeah yeah that's true all right [285:52] quintessence time to land the plane ah [285:56] land the plane I had this blank I often [285:58] have this blank going in because I feel [286:00] like we sort of arrived there throughout [286:02] the episode mine is Rolex is positioned [286:09] at the perfect point on the Curve Cur of [286:12] price and quantity they are the most [286:15] optimally positioned Supply demand curve [286:19] company I think we've ever [286:21] covered that's interesting the curve [286:23] being supply and [286:25] demand I was thinking of the curve of [286:27] units and price but I guess that's sort [286:30] of the same thing as supply and demand [286:33] yeah I think it's sort of the same thing [286:35] yeah that is certainly how you get 30% [286:36] market share by Revenue it's certainly [286:38] how you produce $10 billion a year [286:40] making watches that makes total sense [286:43] and how you have a wait list years and [286:45] years long for most of your models while [286:47] also making over a million units a year [286:50] yep they make so many people think they [286:53] are buying something very special and [286:56] they are and they are and that's why I [286:58] have great admiration for this company [287:00] we've thrown a lot of missives here and [287:02] there but we should just say like this [287:03] is an unbelievable fantastic company [287:05] that makes a remarkable product and the [287:08] strategy and execution by which they've [287:10] executed them is best in the world ever [287:13] I have one more addendum appendix that I [287:16] did write down ahead of time to my [287:17] quintessence that I will say before I [287:19] hand the floor over to you which is um [287:22] there's no way to know for sure of [287:23] course he's been dead a long time so it [287:25] could be way off base but as best as I [287:28] can tell Hans wilsdorf seems like he was [287:31] a really great dude and that's not [287:33] always the case of protagonists that we [287:36] cover or Founders that we cover here on [287:38] acquired like I mean sometimes we cover [287:40] actual na [287:42] but uh you know I could be wrong maybe [287:43] he was a big jerk and and that's just [287:45] been lost to history because there's not [287:46] that much out there but he seems like he [287:48] was a genuinely good person I get the [287:51] sense really loved and was devoted to [287:53] both of his wives and then devoted [287:55] himself to the company in the Legacy [287:56] even though he never had children and [287:57] then putting the foundation together [287:59] obviously was in very large part [288:01] motivated by the long-term Legacy of the [288:04] company but also like this Foundation [288:06] gives away 300 million Swiss Franks a [288:08] year a huge portion of it just Direct [288:11] giving money to people in need in Geneva [288:13] in their Hometown like that's amazing [288:15] yeah he also made a star out of this [288:18] secretary in London Mercedes clats in [288:21] 1927 like he seems like a genuinely [288:23] really good dude it's pretty cool you [288:25] know people ask us every now and then oh [288:28] do you have to be a certain type of [288:29] person to found a company like this and [288:31] still yes well I think you have to be [288:34] crazy but like sometimes people ask like [288:37] do you have to be you know ruthless or [288:39] do you have to be a bad person whatever [288:41] and like I think it's just on this [288:42] Dimension it's just a microcosm of the [288:44] world some people are good some people [288:46] are not good well you just have to be [288:47] extremely something and that extremely [288:49] something has to fit well with your [288:52] product and your market and your timing [288:53] yes but that something is variable yep [288:58] all right I've got a quintessence and [289:00] then I've got a fun notion to leave you [289:03] with I I know it's Blasphemous to put [289:05] things after a quintessence but hey I [289:07] did it you can do it my quintessence is [289:09] that calling this the high end of the [289:12] watch industry or the middle end of the [289:13] watch industry or whatever is just wrong [289:16] mechanical watches are an industry today [289:20] that serves an entirely different job to [289:22] be done than they ever served in the [289:23] past and this is a new industry that has [289:26] nothing to do with telling the time and [289:28] is just goofy to compare to other quote [289:32] unquote parts of the watch industry like [289:35] the Smartwatch the quartz watch the [289:37] fashion like they look the same so we [289:41] call them watches yeah they both occupy [289:43] RIS real estate right but we should [289:45] Define markets by the actual job to be [289:48] done for customers and it is so so so [289:50] incredible that coming out of the courts [289:53] crisis this company found a completely [289:56] new job to be done for their product and [289:58] had kind of positioned themselves there [290:00] the previous two decades with the [290:02] professional watches the tool watches [290:04] and the advertising yeah could not agree [290:07] more so here's the thing to leave you [290:09] with Rolex inter inly is the watch you [290:12] want when you start getting into watches [290:15] but then it's also the watch you end up [290:17] at after you study the whole industry [290:19] yes yes you go through these exotic [290:22] steps along the way on your journey with [290:24] more Artistry more complications [290:26] certainly you'll find more expensive [290:27] price points but when it comes down to [290:29] the most Exquisite engineering quality [290:31] serviceability for a mechanical watch [290:34] that is precise waterproof and [290:36] self-winding amazingly the brand with [290:40] Mass Appeal that all the newbies want [290:42] that sells a million a year is also the [290:44] one of the highest quality yep a [290:47] different version of this that I read [290:49] somewhere I don't remember where in the [290:50] research was Rolex is a company that the [290:53] more you study it the more you like it [290:55] yes I didn't want to record this episode [290:57] because it meant I was going to stop [290:58] researching I mean truly like I have [291:00] loved just bathing myself in this [291:02] industry and this company and their [291:04] products well boy Ben do I have good [291:07] news for you because if you decide to go [291:09] down the watch Rabbit Hole it is deep it [291:12] is deep out there the watch product [291:14] blogs and hinki and everything Beyond it [291:18] oh I also came to this realization when [291:20] you describe this curve like when you [291:21] start its Rolex and when you finish it [291:23] Rolex and it's a company that owns its [291:25] category and all that the comp is Apple [291:29] if you go to rolex's website and you [291:30] click any watch it looks just like an [291:32] Apple product page the named components [291:35] inside the proprietary paracom [291:38] hairspring akin to a neural engine a [291:40] liquid Retina Display I mean their [291:42] YouTube channel looks exactly like [291:44] Apple's high gloss promotional videos [291:46] products whizzing through space plunging [291:48] into water the product is both [291:50] mass-produced and high margin there's a [291:53] big brand premium but it's also the [291:55] highest quality Engineering in the [291:56] industry their financials look so good [291:59] because they found the spot on the curve [292:00] that lets them multiply two large [292:02] numbers together the large number of [292:04] units and dollars per unit you know [292:07] billionaires have iPhones people buying [292:09] their first smartphone have iPhones and [292:11] unlike handbag or car categories the [292:14] phone and Smartwatch do have a single [292:16] company that defines it Apple yep Rolex [292:20] and apple are Mirror Image companies in [292:22] a lot of ways [292:24] totally well I guess we got to do Apple [292:26] now I guess [292:28] so that is not going to be one episode [292:30] no and in retrospect this one shouldn't [292:33] have been [292:34] either I don't know where we would have [292:36] broken it up though is the thing yeah H [292:38] precourse crisis post but but here we [292:41] are thank you listeners yeah thanks [292:43] listeners this was a blast it really was [292:46] David I have one piece of trivia for you [292:48] oh before car outs [292:51] yes can it top my uh My panai Trivia [292:54] though uh that was pretty good I'm I'm [292:57] pretty proud of that one Rolex has [292:59] gotten so sophisticated in its [293:01] manufacturing that they actually use [293:04] ultraviolet lithography in making their [293:07] watches hell yeah it's not an etching [293:10] silicon cuz God forbid they should ever [293:12] get anywhere near a semiconductor it is [293:15] etching a very specialized and precise [293:18] type of gear that in the Rolex Daytona [293:20] ensures the teeth are perfectly meshed [293:24] together so when you start your [293:25] chronograph there's no jumping around [293:28] there's no accidental tick back it just [293:31] starts exactly right oh that's amazing I [293:35] actually have one more piece of trivia [293:36] for you too oh L on me David what watch [293:40] company holds the record today for the [293:42] watch that's gone the deepest in the [293:44] ocean uh this is got to be a trick [293:47] question right like I mean it of course [293:49] Rolex it went down the but I'm assuming [293:51] no [293:54] Omega but to rox's marketing ability [293:58] guess what watch everyone thinks it is [294:00] right wait how did Omega go deeper I [294:02] thought Rolex went down the trench so as [294:05] you know the Rolex deep sea challenge [294:07] happened in 2012 and in 2019 the Omega [294:11] sea Master Planet ocean Ultra deep [294:13] professional went 20 meters deeper what [294:16] did they do like drill a hole in the [294:18] ground at the bottom of the trench I [294:19] think they found a deeper part of the [294:20] trench or something okay but this is [294:23] just this is the most classic classic [294:26] Omega versus Rolex thing in the world if [294:28] you technically look at something it [294:30] doesn't actually sit at the top but for [294:32] all sense and purposes they do amazing [294:36] yeah all right carve outs carve outs I [294:40] just one between the incredible amount [294:42] of research for this episode and my [294:45] entire family of ladies all being very [294:48] very sick with the flu over the last uh [294:50] week plus I have literally had zero time [294:52] for anything else in my life so I have a [294:56] carve out that I don't think I've ever [294:57] made a carve out before but maybe [294:59] impacts my life more than like anything [295:01] else and I owe an extreme debt of [295:04] gratitude to for entertaining my very [295:07] very sick three-year-old over the last [295:09] week uh which is Bluey so thank you so [295:13] much Joe Brum and the Australian [295:16] Broadcasting Company for creating the [295:19] most wonderful children's cartoon ever [295:21] that my three-year-old and millions and [295:24] millions and millions of others out in [295:26] the world will sit and watch and I can [295:27] watch with her and will not make me want [295:29] to rip my eyeballs out great my [295:32] 15-month-old will be into that soon [295:34] enough and I am sure I'll take your [295:35] recommendation oh dude it's so good it's [295:38] so good oh great there is not even a [295:41] comparison it is the greatest children's [295:43] content ever created H all right soon [295:47] you're in for a real treat great I have [295:51] two one is uh on the podcast armchair [295:55] expert David and I went and joined Dax [295:58] and Monica a couple weeks ago to uh [296:00] review the business of the NFL it was [296:02] very fun to do a update to our episode [296:05] and to do it with Dax and Monica who are [296:07] just great my second one is an app [296:11] called 11 reader by 11 Labs I mean I'm [296:14] sure it does more but the thing that I [296:16] use it for which is totally amazing is [296:18] you either paste a link or the killer [296:20] use case for me you paste in a you [296:22] upload a PDF and in a very convincing AI [296:26] voice that sounds remarkably human it [296:28] will read you something that was text [296:32] I'm the person 15 years ago who was [296:35] highlighting emails right-clicking and [296:37] using Apple's built-in speech thing on [296:40] laptops to read it to me because I'm so [296:42] much better at processing it information [296:44] AUD than visually for this episode I had [296:48] so many PDFs to read as a part of my [296:50] research that were not audiobooks that [296:52] were not podcasts I mean I I willed [296:55] myself to read two physical books [296:56] because this freaking Rolex is a whole [296:59] pile of coffee table books is how people [297:01] have published these there's no Kindles [297:03] or anything available 11 reader totally [297:05] saved my butt by letting me listen to a [297:08] large amount of what I needed to [297:09] research so the app is just awesome if [297:12] you like turning text into a very [297:14] compelling human narrated voice nice I [297:18] would say I have to give it a try but [297:19] fortunately I think this is a great [297:20] strength of acquired is you have the [297:22] opposite we have the opposite research [297:24] consumption Styles I need physical hard [297:27] copies in front of me with a pencil that [297:29] I am writing on and I'm best on a 10- m [297:32] run listening to something and stopping [297:34] to take notes along the way love it love [297:36] it all right well with that listeners [297:39] thank you so so much to our partners [297:41] this season JP Morgan payments service [297:43] now fundrise and Huntress you can click [297:45] the link in the show notes to learn more [297:48] special thank you to all the Rolex [297:50] efficient Autos buyers dealers and fans [297:53] that we spoke with a few in particular [297:55] that we want to thank on air are Mark [297:56] Bridge the founder and CEO of at [297:59] presentes a jewelry Marketplace and good [298:01] friend of David and mine Ben Kimber the [298:04] founder and CEO of hinki Who Let Me Talk [298:06] his ear off and answer a zillion [298:08] questions over text thank you so much [298:10] Ben hinki rocks Joe Thompson executive [298:14] editor of hinki legendary watch [298:16] journalist I even have in my inbox right [298:18] now Joe is sending me more follow-up [298:21] information that I managed to see just [298:23] in time to get the right stats into the [298:25] episode so Joe you rock thank you so [298:27] much a that's amazing thank you as well [298:30] big thank you to James dling co-author [298:33] of the best of time which is I think [298:36] probably you know we went through all [298:38] the big coffee table books on Rolex and [298:42] probably the best one out there [298:43] regardless really really great I thought [298:46] the Rolex story was good to heal by heel [298:49] yep yep that's a good one James was very [298:52] generous with his time especially [298:53] because he was right in the middle of [298:55] crunch for his deadline for his next [298:57] Rolex book the Rolex Legacy coming out [298:59] in October so thank you James and also [299:03] uh thank you to sleepwell Capital on [299:05] Twitter who like a year ago DM us and [299:09] was like got to do Rolex and then [299:11] pointed us to a whole bunch of resources [299:13] out there on the internet uh it was very [299:15] very helpful and thank you to the over [299:17] 100 people who have either in slack or [299:19] in email told us to do Rolex over the [299:21] years this is probably our most [299:22] requested episode yeah they're going to [299:24] be at least a hundred of you that listen [299:25] to this yes to Morgan Stanley and Lux [299:29] consult for providing the industry [299:31] research report was very helpful and [299:32] always to Arvin navaratnam at warly [299:35] partners for his fantastic write up on [299:37] the company that we will link to from [299:39] the show notes if you like this episode [299:41] go check out lvmh heres or Porsche by [299:44] searching in any podcast player listen [299:47] to aq2 because we won't have another [299:50] episode for another month so enjoy our [299:52] conversation with GE moous the founder [299:54] and CEO of versell in the meantime and [299:57] come join the slack acquired. fm/ slack [300:00] hang out with all the other smart kind [300:02] members of the acquired community and [300:04] you can sign up for email updates to [300:06] make sure you don't miss Corrections or [300:08] trivia in the future acquire [300:11] fm/ without listeners we'll see you next [300:13] time we'll see you next time who got the [300:17] truth is it you is it you is it you who [300:21] got the truth now huh [300:25] [Music]