University of Michigan's Vaishnav Warns EV Boom Risks Domestic Auto Base

University of Michigan

Swapping gas cars for electric vehicles one-to-one fails to meet climate targets unless cities aggressively reduce total vehicle miles traveled through public transit and active mobility.

AI-assisted summary of Debunking the top myths of EV ownership — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-09-15

Key ideas

Used electric vehicles have become the cheapest vehicles to own across sedans, SUVs, and light trucks, with post-2020 battery chemistry improvements effectively resolving premature degradation concerns. (1:10)
Bidirectional vehicle-to-home (V2H) charging yields median lifetime household electricity savings between $3,000 and $4,000 through time-of-use arbitrage, while doubling as a silent, fume-free multi-day emergency backup during grid outages. (3:36)
Residential overnight charging delivers 300 miles of range for roughly $15 compared to $50 for gasoline, making the industry obsession with replicating five-minute gas station stops largely unnecessary for daily drivers. (16:15)
A one-to-one swap of internal combustion vehicles for EVs will not cut emissions quickly enough to achieve climate goals without policy measures to reduce total vehicle miles traveled through transit, walking, and cycling. (23:05)

Detailed notes

## Background Published by the University of Michigan on YouTube on September 15, 2026, this episode of the Michigan Minds podcast features Assistant Professor Parth Vaishnav from the School for Environment and Sustainability. According to the page description, Vaishnav explores the evolving landscape of electric vehicles by debunking misconceptions about affordability and battery degradation, detailing how bidirectional charging can turn cars into home power plants, and explaining why the industry must look beyond a simple one-to-one replacement of combustion vehicles.

## TL;DR Professor Parth Vaishnav explains that used electric vehicles are currently the cheapest vehicles to own across all market segments, emphasizing that post-2020 battery advancements have effectively resolved severe degradation concerns. He demonstrates how overnight home charging and vehicle-to-home bidirectional power can generate significant utility savings and emergency backup resilience, while arguing that chasing five-minute public fast charging misapprehends how EV owners actually fuel their cars. Vaishnav also addresses adoption hurdles such as high insurance rates, rural perception gaps, and the lack of sub-$30,000 domestic models, warning that American automakers risk repeating the fate of the East German Trabant if they fail to remain globally competitive. Ultimately, he cautions that electrification alone cannot solve the climate crisis unless planners also reduce overall vehicle miles traveled through expanded public transit and cycling infrastructure.

## Atmosphere & style The conversation carries a grounded, academic, and practical tone, pairing quantitative research findings with Vaishnav's approachable firsthand experiences, such as powering his household during power outages and road-tripping through Canada. Juana Ochoa acts as an engaging and structured host, allowing the dialogue to systematically unpack consumer myths with calm, data-driven reassurance. The interview feels like an accessible masterclass that balances genuine excitement about young, evolving clean technology with an urgent, clear-eyed critique of systemic urban design and automotive manufacturing risks.

## Bulletin - [01:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=70s) Used electric vehicles have become the cheapest vehicles to own across sedans, SUVs, and light trucks, with post-2020 battery chemistry improvements effectively resolving premature degradation concerns. - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=216s) Bidirectional vehicle-to-home (V2H) charging yields median lifetime household electricity savings between $3,000 and $4,000 through time-of-use arbitrage, while doubling as a silent, fume-free multi-day emergency backup during grid outages. - [16:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=975s) Residential overnight charging delivers 300 miles of range for roughly $15 compared to $50 for gasoline, making the industry obsession with replicating five-minute gas station stops largely unnecessary for daily drivers. - [23:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1385s) A one-to-one swap of internal combustion vehicles for EVs will not cut emissions quickly enough to achieve climate goals without policy measures to reduce total vehicle miles traveled through transit, walking, and cycling.

## Key takeaways - [01:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=70s) With two-thirds of U.S. car sales occurring in the used market, pre-owned EVs currently provide the lowest total cost of ownership across all passenger vehicle classes. - [01:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=70s) Significant advancements in battery chemistry and thermal management around 2020 have largely eliminated severe battery degradation as a major operational concern. - [02:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=162s) Despite sophisticated onboard battery management systems, maintaining daily charging limits at 80% remains best practice for pack longevity, with 100% charges reserved for immediate road trip departures. - [03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=216s) Vehicle-to-home energy arbitrage allows drivers to absorb cheap off-peak power and supply household appliances during peak periods, drastically reducing utility bills in high-tariff states like California and Texas. - [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=390s) An EV battery at a 50% state of charge connected via a standard manual transfer switch can safely sustain essential household loads for several days during winter or storm-related blackouts. - [07:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=478s) Surveys in rural Michigan reveal that low adoption stems primarily from perception gaps, as standard weekly rural driving distances can easily be replenished via overnight residential charging. - [10:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=611s) Allowing low-cost foreign imports, such as Chinese electric models, could inject necessary competitive pressure to spur U.S. legacy automakers into building mass-market EVs under $30,000. - [12:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=739s) Pursuing five-minute ultra-fast public chargers is largely a distraction from everyday habits, as roughly 90% of vehicle charging takes place conveniently while parked overnight at home. - [16:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=975s) Regulated off-peak residential electricity enables EV drivers to fuel 150 miles of driving for approximately $5, representing less than a third of the cost of fueling a comparable gasoline vehicle. - [18:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1109s) High aerodynamic drag makes sustained highway speeds the least efficient operating scenario for EVs, whereas urban stop-and-go driving maximizes range through kinetic energy recovery via regenerative braking. - [21:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1317s) Failing to rapidly transition the Midwest automotive industrial base risks repeating the fate of East Germany's Trabant, which suffered technological decay after being insulated from global automotive standards. - [23:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1385s) Electrification is not a singular climate solution; meeting emissions benchmarks requires curbing overall vehicle miles traveled by investing in public transit, cycling, and pedestrian infrastructure.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=0s) Introduction to Professor Parth Vaishnav and Sustainable Mobility Research

Juana Ochoa, international public relations representative for the Michigan News Office, introduces the *Michigan Minds* podcast and welcomes Parth Vaishnav, assistant professor at the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability (SEAS). Vaishnav's scholarship relies on quantitative decision analysis to evaluate how energy production and consumption affect environmental stability and public health. His work centers on crafting equitable pathways to decarbonize the broader economy, adapting to climate shifts, and making certain that the financial and environmental rewards reach all segments of society rather than just privileged demographics.

Ochoa highlights Vaishnav's recent collaborative project with Ford Motor Company exploring vehicle-to-home (V2H) bidirectional charging. That work proved that using EV battery packs to feed energy back into residences can trim thousands of dollars from household utility expenses while substantially curbing carbon emissions. Furthermore, Vaishnav has turned his attention toward understanding EV resistance in rural regions, co-authoring a survey examining perception gaps among rural Michiganders.

[01:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=70s) Used Electric Vehicles and the Economics of EV Ownership

When asked how electric vehicles make financial sense for prospective buyers trying to balance household budgets and sustainability, Vaishnav clarifies a fundamental market reality: roughly two-thirds of all car purchases across the United States are used vehicles. While high showroom price tags on brand-new EV flagships capture headlines, research from his SEAS colleagues—Greg Keoleian, Max Woody, and Antara Green—reveals that used electric models are currently the "cheapest to own vehicles you can buy in any category: sedans, SUVs, trucks."

Prospective buyers routinely fret about battery longevity and replacement costs, but Vaishnav explains that pack manufacturing and chemistry advanced substantially around 2020. For vehicles built after that point, severe battery degradation is essentially a solved problem. On the new car side, while purchase options continue to expand, lifetime cost-effectiveness varies by geography and charging access. Factoring in omitted oil changes, minimal scheduled service, and lower energy costs, EVs beat internal combustion engine vehicles in many regions—especially when owners can plug in overnight. Vaishnav points out that the primary factor currently inflating EV total cost of ownership is disproportionately expensive auto insurance. He expects premiums to fall once insurers gain statistical confidence in real-world vehicle reliability and repair costs decline.

- **Market Proportion:** Used cars represent approximately two-thirds of total U.S. vehicle sales. - **Used Vehicle Affordability:** Used EVs currently represent the lowest total cost of ownership across all consumer classes (sedans, SUVs, and light trucks). - **Post-2020 Battery Baseline:** Vehicles manufactured after 2020 feature chemistries and thermal management that render premature degradation a minimal concern. - **Cost Bottlenecks:** Disproportionately high insurance rates represent one of the main remaining barriers inflating overall EV ownership calculations.

[02:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=162s) Battery Degradation Realities and the 80% Charging Rule

Addressing Ochoa's follow-up on whether modern drivers can routinely fill their batteries to 100% capacity rather than capping charging at 80%, Vaishnav acknowledges the standard manufacturer recommendations. Factory owner's manuals routinely advise keeping daily charging cycles to 80% to protect the pack's operational lifespan. He notes that topping up to 100% remains perfectly sensible for road trips where the vehicle immediately begins discharging energy down highway corridors rather than sitting at maximum capacity for extended periods.

Modern onboard Battery Management Systems (BMS) continuously regulate cell temperatures and balance power draws to ward off early deterioration. However, Vaishnav maintains that standard charging hygiene still holds true: "if you can get away with it, you shouldn't charge the battery to 100% too often, that that is still valid." He emphasizes that this operational principle extends beyond passenger vehicles to virtually every rechargeable lithium-ion device consumers rely on in daily life.

[03:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=216s) Vehicle-to-Home (V2H) Energy Arbitrage and Household Savings

Vaishnav outlines his joint investigation into vehicle-to-home (V2H) bidirectional systems, which treat electric car batteries as residential power plants. By taking advantage of time-of-use utility rates, an owner can schedule their parked car to absorb electricity during off-peak periods when grid power is cheapest. The home can then pull directly from that stored vehicle capacity to run high-load appliances—refrigerators, illumination, and central air conditioning—during expensive peak-demand hours.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Vehicle-to-Home Energy Arbitrage accDescr: Diagram illustrating off-peak charging from the grid into an EV battery, followed by peak-hour discharge to power household appliances. subgraph Grid["Power Grid"] OffPeak["Low-Cost Off-Peak Power"] end subgraph Storage["Mobile Energy Storage"] EVBattery["EV Battery Pack"] end subgraph Home["Residential Loads"] HomeLoads["Air Conditioners, Refrigerators, Lights"] end OffPeak -->|"Pre-purchase & Store"| EVBattery EVBattery -->|"Discharge during Peak Rates"| HomeLoads ```

Nationwide, this rate arbitrage yielded median lifetime savings between $3,000 and $4,000 per home. In high-tariff states like California and Texas, the dynamic was even more dramatic: shifting residential electricity consumption through the car battery reduced overall electric bills so dramatically that operating the home became cheaper than if the family owned no electric car at all. Vaishnav notes that while the study did not factor in the upfront capital expense of installing bidirectional electrical equipment, home vehicle charging consistently beats the per-mile fueling costs of combustion vehicles.

- **National Savings Median:** Household electricity arbitrage through V2H saves roughly $3,000 to $4,000 across the U.S. - **Extreme Arbitrage Markets:** In California and Texas, time-of-use price differentials are wide enough that the vehicle battery lowers the home's total electric bill below its pre-EV baseline. - **Study Boundary:** The economic model excluded the installation and hardware costs for bidirectional home transfer switches. - **Fuel Parity:** When residential charging is available, the per-mile operating cost of an EV is almost universally lower than that of a gasoline alternative.

[05:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=324s) Optimizing Charging Times: Financial Savings vs. Clean Energy Grid Realities

Consumer decisions about when to charge depend heavily on whether their immediate priority is saving money or minimizing emissions. If the goal is minimizing utility costs, drivers should program charging cycles around their utility company's time-of-use discount windows. Vaishnav shares his personal rate structure in Ann Arbor, where off-peak pricing runs from 7:00 PM to 11:00 AM on weekdays and applies across the entire weekend.

From an environmental standpoint, however, the cleanest time to pull power does not always align with nighttime off-peak rates. In regions with substantial solar infrastructure, grid emissions drop to their lowest levels during the middle of the day when photovoltaic generation peaks. For drivers focused on lowering greenhouse gas footprints, daytime charging offers the cleanest fuel mix. Vaishnav expresses hope that forward-looking utility companies will reform their rate policies, creating direct economic incentives for customers to plug in when renewable daytime energy is overflowing on the grid.

[06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=390s) Real-World Resilience: Powering a Home with an EV During Outages

Vaishnav recounts his firsthand experience utilizing vehicle power to keep his Ann Arbor home running during blackouts, having relied on the setup three separate times in recent months following severe storms and hurricane fallout. Rather than spending thousands on an automated microgrid, he uses a basic manual transfer switch—the identical equipment often installed for small portable generators or camper vans. When the local grid drops out, he plugs an extension cord directly from his car into a garage inlet socket.

The vehicle delivers 18 amps of continuous electrical current. Vaishnav explains that even with the battery pack at a modest 50% state of charge, that capacity easily keeps household essentials functioning for several consecutive days. The system effortlessly runs the refrigerator, home lighting, and the fan blowers and electronic controls of a gas furnace. In a pinch, the setup handles a small induction cooktop or a standard kitchen coffee maker, and it can sustain a small window air conditioner for a day or two. Vaishnav points out the lifestyle and safety advantages over traditional fossil-fueled backups: there is no engine roar, no volatile gasoline canisters sitting in the garage, no toxic exhaust fumes, and zero danger of deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

- **System Setup:** Utilizes an economical manual transfer switch combined with a heavy-duty extension cord from the car to the garage wall socket. - **Power Output:** Supplies a steady 18 amps of electrical current to dedicated residential circuits. - **Supported Critical Loads:** Runs a full-sized refrigerator, lighting circuits, furnace fans/controls, induction cooktops, small coffee makers, and compact window AC units. - **Run-Time Performance:** A 50% state of charge provides emergency backup power lasting several consecutive days. - **Safety Advantages:** Eliminates the noise, fuel storage hazards, fire threats, toxic fumes, and carbon monoxide risks associated with internal combustion generators.

[07:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=478s) Overcoming Adoption Barriers and Misconceptions in Rural Michigan

Shifting to his survey of rural Michigan motorists, Vaishnav discusses why a mere 5% of respondents indicated an electric vehicle would be their next car purchase. The research revealed deep misalignments between public perception and physical driving realities. Roughly half of those surveyed believed their daily mileage was too high to recharge overnight from a standard residential setup. Vaishnav's modeling disproved this: even if respondents concentrated an entire week's worth of driving into three days, overnight home charging would still easily fulfill their travel needs.

Public charging availability emerged as an additional hurdle. Approximately 30% of rural survey participants live near public chargers at locations where people spend an hour or more—such as grocery markets, shopping plazas, municipal parks, or dining establishments. While Vaishnav was pleasantly surprised that access reached 30%, the remaining 70% gap represents a real structural roadblock for households without dedicated off-street home charging.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Rural EV Adoption Barriers and Stakeholder Solutions accDescr: Outlines the main barriers identified in the rural Michigan survey alongside coordinated stakeholder actions needed to resolve them. subgraph Barriers["Identified Adoption Barriers"] RangeFear["Mileage & Overnight Charging Misconceptions"] PublicGap["70% Lack Convenient Public Chargers"] end subgraph Solutions["Coordinated Stakeholder Solutions"] Marketing["Consumer Education & Targeted Marketing"] Trades["Dealer & Electrician Workforce Training"] GridBuild["Utility Investment in Community Chargers"] end RangeFear --> Marketing RangeFear --> Trades PublicGap --> GridBuild ```

Closing these perception and infrastructure gaps requires straightforward consumer education: "we need good old-fashioned marketing," Vaishnav argues. Automakers, dealerships, electricians, and utility companies must coordinate to guide prospective buyers through home charging logistics. These commercial entities all stand to gain economically from adoption through increased vehicle turnover, home electrical retrofits, and higher kilowatt-hour sales. Ultimately, Vaishnav stresses that charging networks must expand beyond highway travel corridors to support routine day-to-day charging needs for drivers without home garages, as the discussion turns to the broader affordability challenges of vehicle ownership.

[10:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=611s) EV Affordability, Chinese Automakers, and Buying Used

New electric vehicles in the United States currently remain largely out of reach for average consumers. Citing a recent *New York Times* article, Parth Vaishnav notes that there are barely one or two car models on the market priced under $30,000. Domestic automakers may believe it is commercially optimal to keep sticker prices high to protect profit margins, even if that suppresses overall sales volume. One straightforward remedy to this affordability crisis would be allowing American consumers to buy cheaper imported vehicles, such as those produced by Chinese automakers. Rather than hurting the market, opening the door to these foreign EVs could deliver "the competitive jolt that is needed" to push US legacy automakers toward designing affordable electric options, perhaps starting through joint ventures.

For prospective buyers right now, buying used is by far the most practical option. Vaishnav illustrates this from personal experience: six months prior, he purchased a used 2022 EV with 20,000 miles for roughly $29,000—the equivalent cost of a brand-new internal combustion vehicle like a Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic. In contrast, that vehicle originally carried a sticker price of around $50,000, which he notes he could not have afforded new. The vehicle offers 275 miles of range, all-wheel drive, vehicle-to-load capabilities to run household appliances, and can accelerate from zero to 60 mph in under five seconds (an experience he jokingly admits he hasn't pushed to the limit because the acceleration is "so violent that it scares you"). Local municipal policies are also starting to chip away at the cost barrier; for instance, the city of Ann Arbor has rolled out income-qualified subsidies to assist residents in purchasing electric vehicles.

[12:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=739s) Ultra-Fast Charging and the "Gas Station Mindset"

Addressing announcements from Chinese manufacturers like BYD and battery giant CATL regarding ultra-fast charging systems—capable of adding hundreds of miles in roughly five minutes under optimal conditions—Vaishnav warns that consumer expectations are slightly misaligned. While not commenting directly on the proprietary material science behind these cells, he emphasizes that the bottleneck is largely systemic. Pumping that amount of energy into a vehicle that quickly requires either massive upgrades to a 120- to 130-year-old power grid or local stationary battery storage systems coupled to fast chargers to buffer grid draw.

Beyond engineering hurdles, Vaishnav argues that trying to perfectly replicate the five-minute gas station refueling stop is ultimately a "red herring." Electric vehicle ownership alters fueling habits fundamentally: roughly 90% of all charging occurs at home while the driver is asleep or parked. In his own routine, Vaishnav has charged away from home exactly twice in six months (one of those instances occurring during a local power outage). For daily driving outside of long road trips, the freedom of never having to pull into a gas station or dedicated charging depot is a net improvement, and relatively slow overnight Level 2 charging or curbside street charging easily fulfills standard daily mileage requirements.

[14:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=871s) Charging Times, Charger Sharing, and Electricity Pricing

Public fast-charging speeds—such as the typical 20% to 80% state-of-charge benchmark—vary widely by vehicle architecture and equipment. While Vaishnav's vehicle typically accomplishes this in about 20 minutes, real-world speeds often fall short of advertised figures. Charging stalls frequently share power capacity across two plugs; if a neighboring stall plug is in use, available kilowatt output splits, slowing down session times. The speeds highlighted on marketing spec sheets invariably reflect ideal, best-case scenarios with solitary access and peak hardware capability.

When asked whether crowded charging hubs trigger surge pricing similar to ride-hailing services, Vaishnav explains that real-time congestion pricing is not standard practice for EV charging networks. Instead, price variations stem from utility Time-of-Use (TOU) tariffs. Electricity rates peak during daytime hours because broad regional demand surges due to workplace power needs, air conditioning loads, and residential appliances—not because a specific parking stall happens to be occupied.

[16:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=975s) The Economics of Fueling: Gas vs. Public and Home Charging

To demonstrate the running cost disparity, Vaishnav walks through a direct mathematical comparison between a $50 internal combustion tank and an EV recharge.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Cost Comparison for 150 Miles of Range accDescr: Diagram breaking down the financial cost to travel 150 miles across gasoline, public garage charging, and off-peak home charging.

subgraph Gas["Gasoline Vehicle"] A["$50 Full Tank<br/>(300 Miles of Range)"] A --> B["$25 for 150 Miles"] end

subgraph PublicEV["Public Garage Charging (Ann Arbor)"] C["Maynard St Garage: $0.20 / kWh"] C --> D["50 kWh Pack = $10.00"] D --> E["$10 for ~150 Miles"] end

subgraph HomeEV["Residential Overnight Charging"] F["Off-Peak / Weekend Rates"] F --> G["~$0.10 / kWh (Half of Garage)"] G --> H["~$5 for 150 Miles<br/>($15 to match 300-mi equivalent)"] end ```

- **Gasoline Baseline**: A standard ICE tank fill costing $50 yielding 300 miles means 150 miles costs around $25. - **Public Charging Garage**: Parking all day at the Maynard Street garage in Ann Arbor at $0.20 per kilowatt-hour to draw 50 kWh costs $10.00 and yields about 150 miles of driving range. - **Home Off-Peak Charging**: Recharging overnight or over the weekend drops electricity prices by roughly half compared to city parking decks, meaning 150 miles costs roughly $5. Getting a full 300-mile equivalent costs only around $15—less than a third of the comparable $50 gasoline purchase. - **Price Stability**: EV owners benefit from regulated electricity markets, remaining insulated from the volatile swings typical of retail crude oil and petroleum markets.

On the topic of overstay fees at chargers, Vaishnav distinguishes between city garages and dedicated highway DC fast chargers. City-run Level 2 parking spaces treat charging simply as an added amenity to regular parking, incurring no overtime charge. High-output fast chargers, by contrast, are expensive capital assets whose operators must maximize throughput. These systems send automated push notifications when a charge cycle completes, providing a roughly 10-minute grace period before initiating steep idle fees. Vaishnav supports these penalties, noting that taking up a stall while no longer taking on power effectively turns critical charging infrastructure into "a pretty expensive parking spot."

[18:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1109s) Low Battery Protocols, Aerodynamics, and Road-Trip Reliability

If an EV runs completely out of charge, towing requires careful handling. Because spinning drive wheels generate electricity via the regenerative powertrain—which can overheat and destroy onboard power electronics—EVs cannot be towed with drive wheels rolling on the pavement. Tow trucks must use a full flatbed where all four wheels are off the ground, or employ dollies/trolleys underneath rolling tires.

However, modern vehicles will "try its darnedest" to prevent drivers from getting stranded: - **Low-Battery Warnings**: Below 10% state of charge, the vehicle issues aggressive audiovisual warnings. - **Power Throttling**: The battery management system enters reserve protection modes, shedding ancillary loads like air conditioning and capping drive motor power output. - **Speed and Efficiency Management**: Reducing highway speeds from 70 mph to 55 mph significantly curtails energy expenditure because drag increases aerodynamically at high speeds.

Vaishnav points out an interesting inversion between gas cars and EVs: a 75 mph highway road trip represents the worst-case operating condition for EV range because of constant aerodynamic drag penalties. In contrast, stop-and-go urban traffic is where electric drivetrains shine. While electric motors maintain high efficiency across all operating ranges, low-speed stop-and-go driving allows regenerative braking to harvest kinetic energy and pump it back into the battery rather than losing it as friction heat.

Addressing charger availability anxiety, Vaishnav recounts driving from Ann Arbor to Ottawa over a busy Memorial Day weekend. While they encountered two consecutive fast-charging sites that were completely occupied due to holiday travel, they located an open station just two miles away without issue. He remarks that this level of seamless rerouting was unimaginable three years prior, crediting the maturation of public networks and the opening of Tesla's Supercharger network to non-Tesla vehicles for establishing a reliable backbone.

[21:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1274s) The Infancy and Promise of the EV Ecosystem

As the episode draws to a close, the host poses a final question looking toward the horizon: what excites Professor Parth Vaishnav the most about the future of electric vehicles, and what concerns him the most? Vaishnav answers without hesitation that the most thrilling aspect is simply that "we're just getting started." The underlying technology, manufacturing processes, and supporting ecosystem are poised for continual improvement, largely because mass-market EV adoption is still in its earliest chapters.

To illustrate how young the modern EV space truly is, Vaishnav points to the 2018 rollout of the Tesla Model 3 as the sensible benchmark for the dawn of high-volume, mass-market electric vehicles. By that measure, the modern EV industry has only had about eight years to mature and refine its systems. By contrast, gasoline-powered transportation can trace its mass-production roots back to the 1908 introduction of the Ford Model T. The internal combustion engine infrastructure—from fueling networks and service centers to supply chains and technical workforce training—has had nearly 120 years to evolve and optimize. Given that EV technology is already competing effectively after less than a decade of mass-market deployment, the trajectory for future development remains enormous.

---

[21:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1317s) Industrial Base Risks and the Cautionary Tale of the Trabant

Turning to his concerns, Vaishnav highlights two major pitfalls. The first is an economic and industrial vulnerability specific to the United States and particularly the American Midwest. He worries that the nation and the region could squander, cede, or allow the decay of the manufacturing base that took 120 years to construct. Regional prosperity, good jobs for neighboring communities, and broader national capabilities—including a resilient domestic defense and manufacturing infrastructure—depend heavily on maintaining a vibrant, competitive automotive sector. If legacy domestic automakers fall behind during the global shift to electric powertrains, the economic fallout could be severe.

To underscore this risk, Vaishnav recalls a vivid memory from a trip to Berlin in 2008, where he witnessed a rally of vintage East German cars winding through the city streets: the Trabant, colloquially known as the "Trabi." Produced in East Germany between 1957 and 1991, the Trabant existed in a protected, non-competitive vacuum. Citizens behind the Iron Curtain had no access to Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, or Ford vehicles, while virtually no one outside the Soviet bloc had any interest in buying a Trabant—except decades later as a novelty or out of pure historical nostalgia. Vaishnav presents the Trabant as a stark cautionary tale of what happens when an automotive sector fails to compete with global standards and isolates itself from technological modernization.

- **Ford Model T (1908) vs. Modern Mass-Market EVs (2018):** 120 years of internal combustion evolution compared to roughly eight years for high-volume EVs. - **The Trabant parallel:** Manufactured in East Germany from 1957 to 1991, highlighting the danger of falling behind global automotive standards and losing industrial competitiveness. - **Broader industrial stakes:** Sustaining a competitive domestic automotive sector directly underpins regional prosperity, manufacturing competence, and national defense readiness.

---

[23:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1385s) Why Electrification Is Not a Silver Bullet: Beyond 1-to-1 Replacement

Vaishnav’s second grave concern centers on climate strategy and urban mobility: the mistaken belief that electrification is a universal "silver bullet." Multiple academic analyses—including studies conducted at the University of Michigan and peer institutions—demonstrate that swapping every internal combustion car for an electric car on a one-to-one basis cannot deliver greenhouse gas reductions quickly enough to meet urgent climate targets.

Achieving meaningful decarbonization requires fundamentally reducing total vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Vaishnav emphasizes that planners and policymakers must actively shift trips toward public transit, cycling, and walking, rather than assuming that every single passenger mile can simply be converted to electric driving without rethinking urban design. Shifting transportation modes away from passenger cars would yield vast co-benefits beyond carbon reduction, improving cardiovascular health, cutting traffic violence, and enabling better-planned, more livable cities. The dangerous illusion, he warns, is assuming that replacing every gasoline vehicle one-to-one with an EV will solve the climate and urban crises on its own.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Decarbonization Pathways for Transportation accDescr: Comparison between relying solely on a one-to-one EV swap versus combining EVs with vehicle miles traveled reduction through transit and cycling.

subgraph Flawed["Flawed 'Silver Bullet' Strategy"] direction TB A["1-to-1 Replacement<br>(Gas Car to EV)"] --> B["Fails to hit emissions targets fast enough"] B --> C["Preserves sprawl, traffic, and high VMT"] end

subgraph Comprehensive["Comprehensive Climate & Mobility Strategy"] direction TB D["EV Adoption"] & E["Public Transit & Cycling Expansion"] D --> F["Deep Emissions Reductions"] E --> F F --> G["Improved Public Health & Livable Cities"] end ```

- **Emissions timeline limits:** Transitioning solely through electric vehicle purchases takes too long to replace existing fleet turn-over and hit near-term carbon targets. - **VMT reduction:** Effective climate mitigation requires cutting absolute vehicle miles traveled, getting people out of private passenger automobiles wherever possible. - **Systemic co-benefits:** Prioritizing mass transit, pedestrian infrastructure, and cycling delivers immediate health improvements and reshapes city planning for the better.

## Notable quotes > [01:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=70s) cheapest to own vehicles you can buy in any category: sedans, SUVs, trucks. — Parth Vaishnav

> [02:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=162s) if you can get away with it, you shouldn't charge the battery to 100% too often, that that is still valid. — Parth Vaishnav

> [07:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=478s) we need good old-fashioned marketing — Parth Vaishnav

> [10:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=611s) the competitive jolt that is needed — Parth Vaishnav

> [10:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=611s) so violent that it scares you — Parth Vaishnav

> [12:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=739s) red herring — Parth Vaishnav

> [16:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=975s) a pretty expensive parking spot. — Parth Vaishnav

> [18:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1109s) try its darnedest — Parth Vaishnav

> [21:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1274s) we're just getting started. — Parth Vaishnav

> [23:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo&t=1385s) silver bullet — Parth Vaishnav

## Mentioned Parth Vaishnav, Juana Ochoa, University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability (SEAS), Michigan Minds, Ford Motor Company, Greg Keoleian, Max Woody, Antara Green, The New York Times, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, BYD, CATL, Tesla, Tesla Model 3, Ford Model T, Trabant, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Ann Arbor, Michigan

## Video description Parth Vaishnav is an assistant professor of sustainable systems, climate and energy at the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability. His research aims to understand how technology can help solve social problems, primarily focusing on the environmental and human health consequences of energy production and use.

Vaishnav explores how economic, political and operational realities constrain technology deployment. His current work focuses on finding equitable strategies to decarbonize the economy and examines the consequences of automation for the environment, equity and work.

Vaishnav joins the Michigan Minds podcast to discuss the evolving landscape of electric vehicles, debunking myths about battery degradation and affordability. He also details how EV owners can turn their cars into home power plants and why the industry must look beyond a "one-to-one replacement" of gas cars to truly solve environmental challenges.

For people weighing their options, how can electric vehicles still make sense as a cost saving and environmentally friendly choice?

Two-thirds of car sales in the U.S. are used cars. Most people buy used, and today, used EVs are the cheapest vehicles to own in any category—sedans, SUVs or trucks.

Because of this, people should really consider buying a used EV. While people often worry about battery degradation, batteries made after 2020 have improved so much that degradation isn't a major concern anymore.

For new cars, consumer options are growing steadily. If you factor in lifetime refueling and maintenance—like skipping oil changes—electric vehicles are cheaper over their lifespan than gas cars in many places, though they can still be more expensive in others. Home charging overnight also makes a huge difference. Currently, the higher total cost of an EV is often driven by higher insurance rates. However, that should improve as EVs prove their reliability and repair costs come down, leading the insurance industry to adjust its pricing.

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qPhVK-ujeo)

中文简报

密歇根大学学者Vaishnav警告：电动汽车热潮或危及本土汽车工业基础除非各城市通过公共交通和主动出行方式大幅减少车辆总行驶里程，否则将燃油车一对一替换为电动汽车无法实现气候目标。 Parth Vaishnav教授解释称，二手电动汽车目前是所有细分市场中拥有成本最低的车型，并强调2020年以后的电池技术进步已有效解决了严重的衰减隐忧。他展示了夜间家庭充电和车对家庭（V2H）双向供电如何显著节省公用事业支出并提供应急备用韧性，同时指出一味追求五分钟公共快充误解了电动车主的实际补能方式。Vaishnav还谈到了普及推广面临的障碍，如高昂的保费、农村地区的认知差距以及缺乏3万美元以下的本土车型，并警告称美国车企若不能保持全球竞争力，恐将重蹈东德Trabant汽车的覆辙。最后，他提醒道，除非规划者通过扩建公共交通和自行车基础设施来减少机动车总行驶里程，否则单靠电气化无法解决气候危机。二手电动汽车在轿车、SUV和轻型皮卡中已成为拥有成本最低的车型，2020年以后的电池化学成分改进有效消除了过早衰减的担忧。 (1:10) 双向车对家庭（V2H）充电通过分时电价套利，可为家庭全生命周期节省中位数在3,000至4,000美元之间的电费，同时在电网停电期间还可作为无噪音、无废气的多日应急备用电源。 (3:36) 家用夜间充电提供300英里续航大约仅需15美元，相比之下汽油车需要50美元，这使得行业对复刻五分钟加油站补能体验的执念对日常通勤车主而言基本没有必要。 (16:15) 如果不采取政策措施通过公共交通、步行和骑行来减少车辆总行驶里程，仅将内燃机车辆一对一更换为电动汽车将无法足够快地减少碳排放以实现气候目标。 (23:05)

Reading summary

University of Michigan assistant professor Parth Vaishnav argues that electric vehicles already provide significant total-cost and home-resilience advantages over combustion cars, but scaling their benefits requires overcoming high initial prices, rural charging deficits, and misleading consumer habits. Crucially, Vaishnav cautions that replacing gasoline vehicles on a one-to-one basis is insufficient to meet climate goals without broader investments in public transit and reductions in total driving. Used EV Economics and Battery Durability (1:10) While expensive flagship models dominate public discussion, research from Vaishnav's colleagues at the School for Environment and Sustainability reveals that used electric vehicles currently offer the lowest total cost of ownership across all vehicle classes, including sedans, SUVs, and light trucks. Because used cars account for roughly two-thirds of U.S. auto sales, this affordability is central to widespread adoption. Furthermore, Vaishnav emphasizes that advancements in cell chemistries and thermal management around 2020 have turned severe battery degradation into a largely solved issue for newer models. While standard manufacturer guidance still recommends capping daily charging at 80% to maximize pack life, onboard battery management systems effectively protect modern cells during normal use. From an operating standpoint, residential off-peak charging supplies approximately 150 miles of driving range for roughly $5, compared to $10 at a public garage and $25 for a comparable gasoline car. Although fuel and maintenance costs are substantially lower, Vaishnav highlights that disproportionately high auto insurance premiums currently serve as the primary bottleneck artificially elevating EV total ownership expenses, though he anticipates rates will drop as insurers accumulate reliability data. Vehicle-to-Home Power and Energy Arbitrage (3:36) A joint study by Vaishnav and Ford Motor Company found that vehicle-to-home (V2H) bidirectional charging can yield median nationwide household savings between $3,000 and $4,000 through time-of-use electricity arbitrage. In markets with wide rate differentials such as California and Texas, discharging an EV battery to run residential appliances during peak demand lowered overall utility bills below pre-EV levels, though the research excluded the upfront installation costs of bidirectional equipment. Vaishnav also points out a tension in charging schedules: off-peak nighttime charging minimizes consumer costs, but daytime charging aligns better with lowest-carbon power generation in areas with substantial solar infrastructure. Beyond cost arbitrage, bidirectional vehicle power functions as a clean residential backup system during blackouts. Utilizing an economical manual transfer switch and an extension cord, Vaishnav powered his Ann Arbor home across three separate multi-day outages. Drawing a continuous 18 amps from an EV at 50% state of charge sustained essential loads—including refrigerators, furnace fans and controls, lighting, and small induction cooktops—for multiple consecutive days without the noise, volatile fuel storage, or deadly carbon monoxide risks of internal combustion generators. Rural Misconceptions and Charging Realities (7:58) A survey of rural Michigan drivers co-authored by Vaishnav revealed that only 5% planned to purchase an EV as their next vehicle. Roughly half of respondents mistakenly believed their daily driving exceeded what an overnight home charge could replenish, a concern disproved by modeling showing that even a week's driving compressed into three days could easily be recharged overnight. However, 70% of respondents lacked public charging within their routine commercial destinations, such as grocery markets or parks, creating a legitimate barrier for households without dedicated residential parking. Vaishnav characterizes the fixation on replicating five-minute gas station fill-ups as an unnecessary 'red herring.' Because approximately 90% of charging occurs overnight at home, EVs decouple fueling from dedicated fueling stations for daily commuting. Ultra-fast charging also creates heavy grid strains that require expensive stationary battery buffers. Additionally, Vaishnav notes an efficiency inversion between drivetrains: whereas high-speed highway cruising penalizes EVs due to aerodynamic drag, stop-and-go urban driving maximizes EV efficiency via regenerative braking. Industrial Risks and Systemic Transit Strategy (21:57) Vaishnav emphasizes that the modern mass-market EV industry is in its infancy, having evolved for roughly eight years since the 2018 Tesla Model 3 rollout, compared to nearly 120 years of infrastructure development for combustion vehicles. Yet high domestic vehicle pricing remains restrictive, with few models available under $30,000. Vaishnav suggests that permitting lower-cost imported vehicles, such as Chinese EVs, could deliver a necessary competitive jolt to push domestic automakers into producing affordable models. He cautions that insulating domestic manufacturers risks replicating the trajectory of East Germany's non-competitive Trabant, which would endanger Midwestern manufacturing jobs and national industrial capacity. Finally, Vaishnav warns that vehicle electrification cannot be treated as a silver bullet for climate change. Academic modeling indicates that swapping combustion vehicles for electric cars on a one-to-one basis cannot lower emissions quickly enough to hit critical targets. Meaningful decarbonization requires cutting total vehicle miles traveled by redirecting trips toward mass transit, cycling, and walking—interventions that simultaneously alleviate traffic violence and improve urban public health. While technical advances have resolved earlier battery degradation challenges and established used EVs as highly economical options, consumer uptake remains constrained by unaddressed rural charging gaps, high new-vehicle price floors, and persistent fueling misconceptions. Vaishnav's broader analysis concludes that achieving transportation decarbonization requires not only preserving industrial competitiveness to produce affordable electric cars, but also restructuring urban mobility to reduce absolute automobile dependency.

Source quotes

[1:10] Parth Vaishnav: cheapest to own vehicles you can buy in any category: sedans, SUVs, trucks. [2:42] Parth Vaishnav: if you can get away with it, you shouldn't charge the battery to 100% too often, that that is still valid. [7:58] Parth Vaishnav: we need good old-fashioned marketing [10:11] Parth Vaishnav: the competitive jolt that is needed [10:11] Parth Vaishnav: so violent that it scares you [12:19] Parth Vaishnav: red herring [16:15] Parth Vaishnav: a pretty expensive parking spot. [18:29] Parth Vaishnav: try its darnedest [21:14] Parth Vaishnav: we're just getting started. [23:05] Parth Vaishnav: silver bullet

Original transcript

[0:00] [music] [0:03] >> Welcome to the Michigan Minds podcast, [0:05] where we explore the wealth of knowledge [0:07] from faculty experts [music] at the [0:08] University of Michigan. I am Juana Choa, [0:11] international public relations [0:12] representative for the Michigan News [0:14] Office. I'm pleased to welcome Professor [0:16] Parth Vaishnav, assistant professor in [0:18] the School for Environment and [0:20] Sustainability at the University of [0:21] Michigan. Professor Vaishnav's research [0:23] uses quantitative decision analysis [0:25] [music] to examine the environmental and [0:27] human health consequences of energy [0:29] production and use. At UVM, his work [0:31] focuses [music] on finding strategies to [0:33] decarbonize the economy and adapt to [0:36] climate change, [music] with particular [0:37] attention to making the benefits [0:40] attainable to all communities. [music] [0:41] His recent research includes a study on [0:43] vehicle-to-home charging conducted in [0:45] partnership with Ford Motor Company, [0:47] [music] which found that using electric [0:49] vehicle batteries to power homes could [0:50] save owners thousands of dollars and [0:52] significantly reduce carbon emissions. [0:55] [music] He is also working on ways to [0:56] understand barriers to EV adoption in [0:59] rural communities, co-authoring a survey [1:01] that revealed striking gaps between [1:03] perception and reality among rural [1:06] Michiganders. Welcome, Professor [1:07] Vaishnav. [1:08] >> Thanks for having me. [1:10] >> For people weighing their options, how [1:12] can electric vehicles still make sense [1:14] as a cost-saving and environmentally [1:16] friendly choice? [1:18] >> So, the short answer is that 2/3 of the [1:21] car sales in the US are used cars. [1:24] People mostly buy used cars, and today [1:26] used EVs are the cheapest to own [1:28] vehicles you can buy in any category: [1:30] sedans, SUVs, trucks. [1:33] This is research that was done by my [1:36] colleagues, Greg Keolian, Max Woody, [1:39] Antara Green, [1:41] at the School for Environment and [1:42] Sustainability. So, people should [1:44] consider buying a used EV. And people [1:48] worry about things like battery [1:49] degradation, but after about 2020, [1:53] batteries have gotten good enough that [1:55] the [1:56] is not really a major concern. [1:59] Um and for new cars, consumer choice is [2:01] growing steadily um over their lifetime. [2:04] So, if you include the cost of refueling [2:06] the vehicle, maintaining the vehicle, [2:08] not having to do oil changes, and all of [2:10] that, um [2:12] electric vehicles are cheaper over their [2:14] lifetimes than gas cars uh in some [2:17] places, and in some places they're more [2:19] expensive. It also matters whether you [2:21] can charge at home and, you know, charge [2:23] overnight and stuff like that. [2:25] Um often the higher cost of EVs is [2:28] driven by the higher cost of insuring [2:30] them. Uh and that might change as EVs [2:32] get more reliable and as the insurance [2:34] industry starts to believe that they're [2:36] more reliable and uh [2:39] you know, not very expensive to repair [2:41] and so on. [2:42] >> I want to touch back on battery [2:44] degradation. You said that they don't [2:46] degrade that much as before. So, can [2:49] people still charge their car at 100% [2:51] instead of 80%? [2:52] >> When you buy an EV, you get an owner's [2:54] manual, and the owner's manual will [2:56] usually advise you to charge it up to um [3:00] 80%. [3:01] Um if you're going on a road trip and [3:04] your battery is going to start getting [3:06] discharged as soon as it is fully [3:08] charged, then yeah, you know, once in a [3:09] while you can charge it to 100%. Uh [3:12] battery management systems on new cars [3:14] are pretty good. Uh they, among other [3:17] things, they also try to make sure uh [3:20] that the battery doesn't degrade too [3:21] quickly. But that piece of advice that [3:24] uh [3:25] if if you can get away with it, you [3:27] shouldn't charge the battery to 100% too [3:29] often, that that is still valid. And [3:32] it's probably valid for all kinds of [3:34] other batteries that we use in our life, [3:35] also. [3:36] >> You recently studied vehicle-to-home [3:38] charging. What did you learn? [3:40] >> What we found was that if you use the [3:43] battery of the electric vehicle to [3:45] purchase electricity for charging, but [3:48] also for other household uses, things [3:49] like air conditioners or [3:52] um your fridge or lights and so on. If [3:56] you pre-purchased electricity when it [3:57] was cheap and stored it in the battery [4:00] uh and then used it when it would be [4:02] more expensive to buy that electricity [4:04] from the grid, you would save some [4:05] money. [4:06] Uh across the US, uh the savings were of [4:10] the order of around 3 to 4,000 dollars [4:13] median. They were much more in some [4:15] places and less in others. So, for [4:17] example, in California and Texas [4:19] you saved so much money from shifting [4:22] around when you purchased electricity [4:24] for everything else that your overall [4:27] electricity bill would be lower than it [4:30] would have been if you'd not had an EV [4:32] at all. So, not only do you not pay [4:34] anything extra for the fact that you're [4:36] charging the car, all your other [4:38] electricity use becomes cheaper. Now, [4:40] there's a couple of caveats to a study [4:42] like that. For example, we didn't [4:44] account for the fact that it actually [4:45] costs you something to put in the [4:48] electricals to let you do that kind of [4:50] thing. [4:51] Um and and so it it's we didn't really [4:54] show in that study that it's cheaper to [4:58] run uh an EV than it is to run a [5:00] gasoline car. [5:02] But, separately, if you were just [5:04] looking at the cost of refueling a [5:06] vehicle it's hard to imagine a situation [5:09] where if you could charge an EV at home, [5:12] that would be more expensive than a [5:14] gasoline vehicle uh per mile driven EVs [5:18] are generally cheaper to refuel [5:21] than gasoline cars if you can refuel at [5:23] home. [5:24] >> And what would be the best time for [5:26] consumers to charge at home? [5:28] >> In terms of when consumers should charge [5:30] at home, you should charge when [5:31] electricity is cheapest if your goal is [5:34] to reduce your charging costs. And in [5:37] most places, that is typically overnight [5:39] your electricity. For example, here uh [5:42] in Ann Arbor [5:43] my electricity is cheap from 7:00 in the [5:47] uh 7:00 in the evening to 11:00 in the [5:50] morning and it's cheap on weekends. From [5:53] the point of view of your charging cost, [5:54] you should charge when your utility [5:57] gives you the lowest rate. From an [5:58] environmental perspective, the answer [6:00] can be different. So, there are parts of [6:02] the US where there's quite a lot of [6:04] solar. In fact, in many parts of the US [6:06] there's quite a lot of solar and so the [6:08] grid is often the cleanest midday. [6:11] And it may make sense for people to [6:14] charge midday if their goal is to reduce [6:17] greenhouse gas emissions. [6:19] And what you would hope is that over [6:21] time these two things will converge [6:24] where utilities will actually [6:26] incentivize people to charge when solar [6:29] energy is abundant. [6:30] >> Going back to your study, [6:32] vehicle-to-home charging, I heard you [6:34] use this technology during a power [6:36] outage at your home. What was that [6:38] experience like and how helpful was it? [6:40] >> Yeah, it's really helpful and we've [6:42] actually had to use that feature three [6:44] times I think in the last couple of [6:46] months. For example, when that hurricane [6:48] hit Ann Arbor. [6:49] So, what we have is a manual transfer [6:51] switch. It's the kind of thing that [6:53] you'd put in if you had a small [6:54] generator or, you know, in a camper van [6:57] actually. [6:58] And when the lights go out, I do have to [7:00] go out to the garage and run an [7:02] extension cord from a from the car to a [7:05] socket in the wall. [7:07] And then the car gives me 18 amps of [7:10] power. And what that means is that even [7:13] with [7:14] the battery half full, [7:16] I can run my fridge, I can run my gas [7:18] furnace which actually needs electricity [7:20] to run its fan and controls. I can run [7:23] lights and I can run all of that for [7:25] several days. [7:26] And in a pinch, I can attach a small [7:29] induction cooktop and use that for a [7:31] bit. I've made coffee a couple of times [7:34] using a coffee maker. You could [7:36] potentially run a small window AC for a [7:39] day or two. And you can do that without [7:41] burning anything. So, you're not you [7:44] know, you're not worried about fumes [7:46] from a generator. There's no noise. [7:49] And there's no risk of fire. I'm not [7:51] storing gasoline in the garage, for [7:53] example. And there's no risk of carbon [7:55] monoxide poisoning. So, it's it's very [7:57] helpful. [7:58] >> In a different study, you found that [7:59] only 5% of rural Michiganders said they [8:02] would choose an EV as their next car. [8:05] What are some of the big [8:05] misunderstandings and how can we close [8:08] that gap between perception and reality? [8:10] >> We showed that the misconceptions do [8:12] exist. So, for example, uh about half [8:15] our respondents believe that they drive [8:17] so much that they would not be able to [8:19] meet their driving needs by just [8:21] charging overnight at home. And we [8:23] showed that the vast majority of those [8:25] people who believe this would actually [8:28] be able to charge overnight and still [8:30] drive as much as they said they would, [8:32] even if uh all their driving took place [8:34] on 3 days of the week rather than 7 days [8:36] of the week, for example. [8:38] Um similarly, uh [8:41] about 30% of the people in our survey [8:45] have access to public charging at places [8:47] like grocery stores, restaurants, parks, [8:50] or shopping centers. Uh these are places [8:52] where they might spend the hour or so it [8:54] takes to charge their car. [8:57] Um and so, we were actually surprised [9:00] that the number was as high as that, but [9:03] the fact that [9:05] it is only 30% of the people who have [9:07] access to this form of charging is in [9:09] fact a barrier to electric vehicle [9:11] adoption if for some reason you can't [9:13] charge at home. [9:15] Um so, how do we address them? So, the [9:17] first thing is we need [9:19] good old-fashioned marketing. So, when [9:21] you have a new product that you want to [9:22] sell, you educate consumers on how to [9:25] use it. Uh auto manufacturers and [9:28] dealers should help consumers, [9:30] electricians can help them, and [9:31] utilities can help them. And all of [9:33] these stakeholders [9:34] uh could make money if people adopted [9:37] EVs. So, for example, electricians would [9:39] have more work, utilities would sell [9:41] more electricity. [9:42] Um [snorts] and we also should build out [9:46] a decent charging infrastructure [9:49] that enables people not just to go on [9:51] long trips, but if they are unable to [9:53] charge at home, [9:55] it also supports their day-to-day [9:57] charging needs. [9:58] >> For many people, EVs still feel out of [10:00] reach financially. What are the biggest [10:02] barriers keeping them from becoming more [10:05] affordable? [10:06] >> So, the first thing that we should [10:08] acknowledge is that cars of any kind are [10:11] not affordable in the US right now. [10:13] They're expensive and they're out of [10:15] reach for many people. The New York [10:17] Times had a really nice piece about [10:19] this. And I think there's maybe one or [10:21] two models of cars that you can buy for [10:23] less than $30,000 today. [10:26] Um so, that's something that [10:29] the US auto industry [10:33] maybe can choose to fix. [10:35] Maybe the auto industry reckons that [10:39] the optimal thing from the view of from [10:42] the point of view of profits for the [10:43] industry to do is to keep prices where [10:46] they are and [10:48] you know, let that suppress new car [10:50] sales [10:51] if if that's what happens. [10:53] So, [10:54] in terms of EVs, the simple solution is [10:58] to let Americans buy affordable cars, [11:00] for example, made by automakers in [11:02] China. [11:03] And these cars just happen to be [11:05] electric. [11:07] Hopefully, that gives our automakers, [11:10] you know, the competitive jolt that is [11:12] needed to develop their own products. [11:14] Perhaps initially in joint ventures with [11:17] Chinese automakers. [11:19] Another solution, which in practice most [11:22] people adopt, is to buy used. So, about [11:25] 6 months back, I bought a 2022 EV with [11:29] 20,000 miles on it. The original sticker [11:33] price must have been 50k, which I [11:34] wouldn't have been able to afford. Um, [11:37] it has 275 miles of range. Uh, it has [11:40] all-wheel drive. It goes from zero to 60 [11:43] in less than 5 seconds. [11:45] Um, although I've not actually tried [11:46] that because acceleration is so violent [11:49] that it scares you. Uh, but and it can [11:51] run a couple of appliances as I just [11:53] described. And I paid like 29k for it, [11:56] which is what I would pay for uh, maybe [11:59] a new Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic or [12:02] something like that. So, used EVs, like [12:04] I said before, are really good option. [12:07] And finally, if you live in Ann Arbor, [12:09] the city recently has started offering [12:11] subsidies, uh, which are [12:13] income-qualified and so on. But, uh, [12:15] they do make it a bit cheaper for people [12:17] to buy electric vehicles. [12:19] >> Yeah, I think it'd be great if the US [12:21] was able to import some of the Chinese [12:24] vehicles, like BYD, which is an a [12:26] Chinese electric vehicle and battery [12:28] manufacturer. Uh, companies such as [12:30] CATL, one of the world's largest EV [12:33] battery suppliers, and BYD have [12:35] announced ultra-fast charging [12:37] technologies that they say can add [12:39] hundreds of miles of range in about 5 [12:41] minutes under ideal conditions. How big [12:44] of a breakthrough is that? And what [12:46] would it take to make similar charging [12:48] speeds common in the US? [12:50] >> So, I don't know enough about the [12:52] material science to comment on how big a [12:55] technological breakthrough it is. Um, [12:58] it probably also needs, um, [13:01] an electric grid or charger setup that [13:04] facilitates that kind of charging speed. [13:06] So, it's not just the battery that has [13:09] to be able to charge at that speed. You [13:10] need, um, [13:12] you need to upgrade the electricity grid [13:15] or have something like, uh, having a [13:17] battery coupled with a charger so that [13:19] you're charging partially from the grid [13:21] and partially from a battery that has [13:23] stored energy. So, there needs to be a [13:26] solution both within the vehicle and [13:28] outside it in the broader system. [13:30] Uh and it may not be easy to replicate [13:32] it with our grid, which has been around [13:35] for 120, 130 years. [13:38] Uh what I will try to say is uh that [13:41] trying to exactly recreate the gas [13:44] refueling experience, which is where [13:45] that, you know, 5-minute limit comes [13:47] from, may be a bit of a red herring. So, [13:49] in my case, um in the last 6 months, [13:52] I've charged my EV outside the home [13:55] exactly twice. And one of those times [13:57] was during an outage. Um by and large, [14:01] most people do 90% of their charging at [14:03] home. Um [14:05] this is kind of broadly true. [14:08] Um and for the times that I'm not on a [14:11] road trip, I really like not having to [14:14] go to a gas station or a charging [14:16] station. And I suspect most people would [14:19] actually quite like not having to go [14:21] anywhere to refuel. So, combination of [14:24] relatively slow home or street charging [14:27] will meet most people's needs most of [14:29] the time. [14:31] >> When charging, how long does it take to [14:32] get from 20 to 80%? [14:36] >> So, it really, really depends on the [14:39] car. [14:40] Um in my car, it is almost always [14:44] 20 or so minutes. But it depends on the [14:47] car, it depends on the speed of the [14:49] charger. Uh there are a lot of chargers [14:52] which are shared. So, uh you have a [14:55] charger with two uh sockets coming out [14:58] of it. But the amount of uh power that [15:01] the charger can put out is split between [15:03] those two sockets. So, if there's [15:04] someone already there, you get a [15:06] different speed than you'd have gotten [15:08] if you were the only person there. [15:10] So, it really depends. Uh but what is [15:13] advertised with the car is [15:16] a sort of typical best-case situation [15:19] where you pull up to a charger and [15:21] you're the only person there and all the [15:23] chargers designed so that can handle [15:25] multiple people. [15:27] >> And I would assume that if all of the [15:28] chargers are occupied, the cost would [15:31] also increase, would it not? [15:34] >> So, not not really. I'm not aware of [15:38] chargers that [15:39] charge like that in real time where they [15:41] have kind of congestion pricing. [15:43] So, I'm not aware of a situation where [15:46] that happens. There are some places that [15:48] might have time of use pricing. Because [15:51] the reason the price goes up is not [15:53] because there are a lot of people at the [15:56] charger, the price goes up because in [15:58] general there's a lot of demand for [16:00] electricity at that time. [16:02] So, typically during the day [16:05] people are at work, some people are at [16:07] home, you need air conditioning and so [16:09] the price of electricity is [16:11] is is higher during the day for that [16:14] reason. [16:15] >> Let's say if a driver spends about $50 [16:18] to fill up a gas tank and gets 300 [16:20] miles, how much would it be with an [16:22] electric vehicle with $50? [16:25] >> We can work through the math on that. [16:26] So, [16:28] let's say I park in one of the garages [16:30] in Ann Arbor, like in actually in the [16:33] Main Art Street garage, right? I'd [16:35] probably pay around 20 cents a kilowatt [16:37] hour and let's say I buy 50 kilowatt [16:41] hours of energy, which is what I would [16:43] buy if I kind of park the entire day. [16:46] And so I'd pay $10 and that [16:49] $10 would buy me for 50 kilowatt hours, [16:53] it would buy me about 150 miles of [16:56] range. So, I'd get 150 miles for $10. [16:59] Now, depending on what car you have, [17:02] that 50 gallon tank would or that $50 [17:05] tank would buy you maybe 300 miles, [17:08] which means if you wanted 150, you'd pay [17:10] 15. Whereas in this case, I would pay [17:13] maybe 10. If I was charging at home at [17:15] night or on the weekend, I'd pay half of [17:17] what I pay in the Maynard Street garage. [17:19] So then, you know, versus that $50, [17:23] uh I'm paying uh a third, maybe $15 or [17:27] something like that. And of course, [17:28] you're not subject to as much volatility [17:31] in fuel prices uh as you are with gas [17:34] prices. [17:35] >> Let's say you're parked at a public [17:36] charging station and you're there longer [17:38] than what you need to be. Do you get [17:40] extra fees for for staying longer? [17:43] >> So it depends. If the public charging [17:45] station is in a place like Ann Arbor [17:48] city garage, then typically no, because [17:50] it's it's a parking space where I can [17:52] also charge. I I don't pay anything [17:54] extra. If you're at a fast charger, then [17:58] yes, because those things are expensive [18:00] commodities. The company that actually [18:03] installs them wants to maximize their [18:05] utilization, and they also don't want [18:07] someone else to be stranded. So there, [18:10] you typically get a text message saying, [18:12] "Hey, your charging session has ended or [18:14] is about to end. [18:16] Um you have a 10-minute grace window, [18:18] and then if you still insist on staying [18:21] parked there, because at that point [18:23] you're no longer charging, uh it turns [18:25] into a pretty expensive parking spot. Uh [18:27] as it should, I think. [18:29] >> What would happen if someone runs out of [18:30] power on the side of the road? [18:32] >> If that happens, then you'd have to uh [18:35] call a towing service that gets all your [18:37] wheels off the ground. You can't tow the [18:40] car with two wheels still on the ground [18:41] if it's an electric vehicle, because [18:44] when the wheels spin, they charge the [18:45] battery, and you might end up [18:47] overheating some circuits and burning [18:48] them out and stuff like that. So, you [18:50] want to uh in in that case, you want all [18:53] wheels off. Or uh what some uh what some [18:57] towing companies do now is that uh you [19:00] lift up two wheels, but then you have [19:02] kind of a trolley that goes under the [19:04] other two wheels, so that the wheels [19:05] themselves don't spin. But, uh [19:08] before you get to that point, uh the car [19:11] will try its darnedest to prevent you [19:14] from getting there. So, the first thing [19:17] it'll do is it'll really start warning [19:19] you that you are short, uh, [19:22] when you're below 10% it'll really start [19:24] screaming. [19:26] Um, then there comes a [19:29] point where it'll shut off non-essential [19:31] systems. Maybe it'll shut off air [19:32] conditioning, um, [19:35] uh, it'll curtail the amount of power [19:36] you have available. [19:38] Um, if you are driving, if you go from [19:41] driving at 70 mph to driving at 55 mph, [19:45] your energy use drops quite a lot [19:47] because at highway speeds, uh, you're [19:50] spending a lot of energy overcoming [19:52] drag. So, uh, EVs actually do quite well [19:55] in stop-and-go traffic. [19:57] Um, [19:58] I think the kind of 75-mi road trip is [20:01] really the worst case in terms of [20:02] efficiency because there's there's a [20:05] big, uh, [20:07] aerodynamic penalty which you have for [20:09] your gasoline vehicles, also, but the [20:11] actual drivetrain is equally efficient [20:14] at all speeds. The reason you get that [20:17] additional efficiency in city traffic is [20:19] because the EV's able to harvest some of [20:21] the energy and pull it back. So, there's [20:24] there's a lot of things you can do so [20:26] that you're not stuck in that way. [20:28] Um, and then, you know, there's the [20:30] question of why would you end up in a [20:32] situation like that? [20:34] And one reason is you go to a charging [20:37] station and it isn't available or it's [20:39] broken or something like that. [20:41] Um, so that can happen and I've we [20:44] actually drove to Ottawa from Ann Arbor [20:47] on a Memorial Day weekend and we [20:51] actually had a situation where two [20:53] consecutive charging stations that we [20:54] went to were full because it was [20:57] Memorial Day and we found a third one [21:00] within 2 mi which wasn't full and it was [21:02] fine. Which is a thing that would not [21:05] have happened 3 years ago. The charging [21:07] infrastructure, especially with access [21:09] to the Tesla Superchargers, is really [21:12] pretty robust. [21:14] >> Professor Vaishnav, we reached the end [21:16] to our episode, and I have one question [21:19] left. When you look ahead, what excites [21:21] you the most about the future of EVs, [21:23] and what concerns you the most? [21:25] >> What is exciting is that we're just [21:26] getting started. The technology and [21:29] ecosystem will just keep getting better. [21:31] If you want to date the introduction of [21:33] mass-market EVs, then, you know, the [21:35] 2018 launch of the Tesla Model 3 is a [21:37] good starting point. So, the industry [21:40] has had 8 years to evolve. Things Things [21:43] will get better over time. And for [21:45] comparison, you know, the Ford Model T [21:47] was introduced in 1908, and so the [21:50] system that we have for gasoline cars [21:52] has evolved over 120 years uh versus [21:55] maybe just 8 years for the EV ecosystem. [21:57] In terms of what concerns me, two [21:59] things. First, we're in the US, um and [22:02] the concern is that not just the United [22:05] States, but specifically our region will [22:07] kind of squander, seed, maybe let decay [22:11] uh the industrial base that we've built [22:13] over 120 years. And, you know, all our [22:15] prosperity, that of our neighbors, kind [22:17] of depends on our ability to sustain [22:20] that industrial base. Uh our ability to [22:22] maybe uh [22:24] have a solid defense industry, a solid [22:26] manufacturing industry, uh depends at [22:29] least partially on having a robust [22:31] automobile sector. [22:33] Um I was in Berlin, in Germany, in 2008, [22:35] and I saw this rally of these East [22:37] German cars called Trabants sort of [22:39] winding through the streets. Uh now, the [22:42] Trabant, they were called Trabis. They [22:43] were made in East Germany from 1957 to [22:46] 1991. [22:48] Uh if you lived in East Germany, you [22:50] couldn't really buy a Volkswagen or [22:52] Mercedes or BMW or Ford. And no one [22:54] outside the Soviet block would want to [22:56] buy a Trabant, uh [22:58] um except out of a sense of nostalgia. [23:00] So, uh you know, there's there's there's [23:02] cautionary tales Um out in the world. [23:05] And second, in terms of the environment, [23:08] there is a risk that we see [23:10] electrification as a silver bullet. And [23:12] there's a bunch of studies, [23:14] some of them done here in the University [23:17] of Michigan and some done elsewhere, [23:19] which show that we can't get the carbon [23:21] reductions that we need fast enough [23:24] without a big shift to things like [23:26] transit, things like cycling. So, we do [23:29] have to reduce the vehicle miles that we [23:31] travel by getting people out of [23:34] passenger cars rather than replacing [23:36] every single passenger mile one is to [23:38] one with an electric vehicle. [23:41] And that would also do wonders for our [23:43] health and maybe on how we live and plan [23:45] out cities. So, my concern is that we [23:47] think that a one-is-to-one replacement [23:50] will solve the problem. [23:52] >> [music] [23:56] >> Thank you for listening to this episode [23:58] of Michigan Minds, [23:59] >> [music] [23:59] >> produced by Michigan News, a division of [24:02] the university's Office of the Vice [24:04] President for Communications.