BCCI Powers IPL Toward $16 Billion Valuation as India Media Rights Surge

印度媒体版权激增，BCCI助推IPL估值迈向160亿美元 该联赛凭借集权化的零负债模式、严格的球员垄断以及面向妇女儿童定制的黄金档娱乐形式，有望超越NFL成为全球最具价值的体育实体。 本期节目探讨了印度板球超级联赛（IPL）自2008年由Lalit Modi创立以来，到2025年成长为估值160亿美元体育巨头的迅猛崛起历程。节目详细剖析了该联赛如何将传统板球压缩为三小时的黄金时段娱乐大餐，成功将体育与宝莱坞魅力融合以俘获女性和儿童受众。内容涵盖了与鲁珀特·默多克旗下Star TV等媒体巨头激烈的政商博弈、零负债特许经营模式，以及由BCCI管理的独特集中化收入结构。最终，主持人在印度中产阶级爆发式增长与战略性国际投资的推动下，对IPL持续的全球扩张给出了强有力的宏观经济看涨理由。 印度板球超级联赛（IPL）自2008年创立以来的17年间，其估值增长了20倍，突破160亿美元。 (2:01) 按单场比赛计算，IPL的媒体转播权价值高居全球第二，仅次于NFL。 (2:01) 创始人Lalit Modi从杜克大学篮球赛和《周一橄榄球之夜》（Monday Night Football）等美国体育的媒体主导地位中，获得了IPL的核心架构灵感。 (6:36) BCCI通过20世纪90年代和21世纪初具有里程碑意义的法律与制度胜利，确立了对媒体版权和球员合同的绝对所有权。 (17:06) 截至2000年代中期印度中产阶级的大幅扩张，为该联赛的成功提供了根本性的经济引擎。 (34:35)

Hosts Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal argue that the Indian Premier League (IPL) represents the most structurally optimized sports entertainment property in modern history, engineered through centralized regulatory monopoly, Bollywood star power, and macroeconomic tailwinds rather than organic sporting tradition. Monopolistic Control and the Player Auction System (76:06) Unlike Western sports governed by collective bargaining or fragmented rights, the IPL leveraged the Board of Control for Cricket in India's (BCCI) total regulatory monopoly. When Subhash Chandra's Zee TV attempted to launch the independent Indian Cricket League (ICL) in 2007, the BCCI neutralized the threat by issuing lifetime bans to participating players. League architect Lalit Modi established a centralized league model that avoided the spending spirals of European soccer—where player wages often exceed 60% of revenues—and the uncapped spending disparities of Major League Baseball. To ensure parity, the IPL replaced traditional draft systems with a centralized player auction featuring standardized three-year contracts and rigid team salary caps. Because the BCCI maintained exclusive control over player participation, athletes historically received just 12% to 15% of league revenue, compared to approximately 50% in the NFL. This mechanism eliminated under-the-table cap evasion, curbed agent leverage, and ensured that franchises in smaller markets remained on an equal competitive and financial footing. Cultural Convergence of Bollywood and Primetime Cricket (94:42) The IPL deliberately departed from the slow-paced, five-day Test cricket tradition by adopting Twenty20 (T20), an explosive, three-hour format optimized for television. Designed alongside sports marketing agency IMG, the league scheduled a single match each evening from 8:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. across a compact two-month window. This prime-time scheduling was explicitly designed to supplant evening soap operas, creating an appointment-viewing spectacle comparable to an American "Monday Night Football" broadcast every night of the week. Modi maximized cultural reach by recruiting Bollywood icons, such as Shah Rukh Khan and Preity Zinta, as franchise owners. This association transformed matches into celebrity spectacles, expanding viewership beyond traditional cricket fans. Female viewership rose from negligible numbers in international cricket to between 30% and 35% during the first IPL season, eventually reaching a 50/50 gender balance. This shift opened unprecedented advertising opportunities for non-traditional sports sponsors, exemplified in 2019 when cosmetics company Lotus Herbals sponsored power-hitter Chris Gayle's jersey and reported a subsequent 20% sales increase. Middle-Class Expansion and Telecom-Driven Rights Growth (34:35) The IPL's commercial trajectory mirrored India's rapid demographic shift. Between the early 1990s and the present, the Indian middle class expanded from 2 million households earning at least $10,000 in disposable income to roughly 550 million people, comprising 31% of the country's population. This burgeoning consumer base provided advertisers with a massive domestic audience possessing disposable income for consumer goods, mobile devices, and apparel, directly inflating the value of cricket broadcast inventory. This growth accelerated after 2016 when Reliance Jio disrupted the domestic telecommunications sector by lowering mobile data costs, driving India's smartphone install base from 30 million to 800 million devices within six years. Broadcasters quickly adapted; Star centralized production in Mumbai to deliver single matches simultaneously across eight distinct regional languages. By 2022, the BCCI unbundled its media rights into a four-way matrix, securing roughly $3.1 billion from Disney Star for linear television and another $3.1 billion from Viacom18 for digital streaming over a five-year period. High-Margin Unit Economics and International Soft Power (201:04) Generating between $16 million and $17 million in media rights per match across a 74-game season, the IPL ranks as the second most valuable sports league globally on a per-game basis, behind only the NFL. At the franchise level, teams benefit from an asset-light model without stadium debt or capital expenditure burdens. Against revenues between $70 million and $80 million and a strictly regulated $17 million salary cap, teams generate 60% to 65% EBITDA margins, delivering approximately $50 million in pre-tax profits and supporting average franchise valuations of $1 billion within a $16 billion league ecosystem. This financial leverage has fueled what the hosts describe as Indian "cricket imperialism." IPL team owners now hold controlling stakes in multiple overseas leagues, including all teams in South Africa's T20 tournament and four of the six foundational franchises in America's Major League Cricket. Supported by mobile fantasy gaming giants like the $8 billion Dream11 and cricket's scheduled return at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, the IPL has transformed a British colonial export into a primary instrument of Indian commercial soft power. The hosts forecast that compounding advertising revenue and schedule expansion could eventually push IPL media rights to $12 billion, rivaling the NFL. However, realizing this potential requires navigating significant hurdles, including upgrading outdated physical stadium infrastructure, capturing international audiences across conflicting time zones, and formalizing India's immense, semi-legal sports wagering market.

播客《Acquired》指出，印度板球超级联赛（IPL）在不到二十年间崛起为单场转播价值仅次于NFL的全球第二大体育联盟，其成功源于印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）的绝对行政垄断、颠覆性的公开拍卖与轻资产财务模型，以及深度绑定宝莱坞的全国性黄金档娱乐重塑。 BCCI绝对集权下的赛制顶层设计 (46:16) IPL的诞生建立在印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）对该项运动前所未有的行政垄断之上。与北美职业体育中资方、工会与监管机构互相博弈的结构不同，BCCI不仅掌控国家队和国内赛事的全部管理权，还单方面决定球员合同与海外参赛资格。当媒体巨头Zee TV在2007年试图通过创办叛逆联盟ICL分流板球商业价值时，BCCI迅速祭出终身禁令，将违规球员永久逐出国家队与官方体系，彻底扼杀了竞争对手。 在此背景下，Lalit Modi与国际管理集团（IMG）整合了NFL的集中转播、NBA的娱乐包装与英超的商业逻辑，在两周内加速推出了完全由BCCI中央集权的城际联赛IPL。主持人指出，BCCI对顶级球员资源的排他性控制构成了极具壁垒的“垄断资源”（Cornered Resource），使联盟从诞生起便拥有其他国际赛事无法比拟的制度权威。 硬工资帽与公开拍卖的财务护栏 (76:06) 为避免MLB因缺乏硬工资帽导致豪门垄断，以及欧洲足球因薪资无序竞争和升降级风险导致俱乐部深陷巨亏，IPL设计了极度利于资方的财务模型。联盟规定所有球员签订标准化的三年期合同，将球员获取完全集中于类似艺术品拍卖的公开竞价。这种制度排除了私下交易、阴阳合同和经纪人操纵的杠杆，通过资本公开竞价实现了完全透明的价值发现。 在成本控制端，IPL球员薪酬历史上仅占联赛总收入的12%至15%，远低于NFL的50%和英超的60%以上。以一支平均营收约8000万美元的球队为例，其硬工资帽仅约为1700万美元。由于特许经营权无需承担昂贵的球馆建设债务，这种高经营杠杆模式赋予了加盟球队高达60%至65%的EBITDA利润率，税前净利润可达5000万美元左右，使平均估值10亿美元的球队成为极具吸引力的优质投资标的。 宝莱坞融合与家庭娱乐重构 (94:42) IPL通过将传统长达五天的测试赛改造为节奏紧凑的3小时T20赛制，成功将板球重塑为适配现代家庭的黄金档电视产品。联盟在每晚8点至11点黄金时段仅安排单场比赛，采取“每晚都是超级碗”的排期策略直接替代晚间肥皂剧。在Lalit Modi的推动下，沙鲁克·汗（Shah Rukh Khan）与普丽缇·泽塔（Preity Zinta）等宝莱坞一线巨星以特许经营权大股东身份深度入局，将占印度媒体市场90%声量的娱乐明星直接导入看台，创造了极强的粉丝追随效应。 这一策略迅速打破了传统体育以男性为主的观众结构，首季女性观众占比即达30%至35%，并最终实现50/50的男女平衡。受众群体的泛化吸引了护肤品牌Lotus Herbals等非传统广告主投放，使其防晒产品年销售额激增20%。同时，星空传媒（Star）利用孟买中央演播室提供8种主要区域语言的实时解说，进一步将IPL确立为跨越语言障碍的全国性家庭消费仪式。 移动互联网革命与媒体版权跃升 (188:03) IPL商业价值的飞跃与印度宏观中产阶级扩张和数字基建爆发高度共振。自20世纪90年代初仅有200万户家庭可支配收入达1万美元，到录制时印度中产阶级已扩展至约5.5亿人（占总人口31%），推动广告市场以年均6%至7%的速度复合增长。2016年穆克什·安巴尼（Mukesh Ambani）旗下Reliance Jio掀起廉价移动数据革命，在6年内将印度智能手机保有量从3000万部推升至8亿部，为流媒体变现铺平了道路。 这一红利推动IPL媒体版权经历指数级爆发：从最初索尼的10年10亿美元，跳升至2017年星空传媒（Star）的5年25亿美元。到2022年版权周期，BCCI将传统电视与数字流媒体权益拆分竞标，Disney Star以约31亿美元拿下南亚次大陆本土电视版权，Viacom 18（派拉蒙与Reliance合资企业）则以约31亿美元斩获流媒体版权。这使IPL单场比赛的转播版权收益攀升至1600万至1700万美元，带动全联盟估值达到约160亿美元。 场馆基建升级与全球板球输出 (216:43) 节目指出，IPL未来的增长空间依然显著。目前加盟球队收入结构中仅有约15%来自本土球场收入（85%依赖联盟中央转播与赞助分润）。若借鉴NFL达拉斯牛仔队的开发模式，通过翻新老化场馆、增设豪华包厢和结合宝莱坞元素的商业综合体，本土收入占比有望提升至35%至40%。 在国际化方面，IPL资本正展开“板球帝国主义”式的扩张：美国职业板球大联盟（MLC）的6支创始球队中有4支拥有IPL资本背景；南非T20联赛所有参赛队伍均隶属于IPL特许所有者；加之T20板球正式重返2028年洛杉矶奥运会，IPL正在绕开时区限制渗透北美市场。此外，尽管印度国内体育博彩仍受严格法律限制，海外合法博彩市场每场已达约7.5亿美元的下注规模，而以“技巧类游戏”合规运营的本土平台Dream11估值已达80亿美元，揭示出未来博彩政策一旦松绑所蕴含的巨大经济杠杆。 节目总结认为，IPL是制度设计、宏观人口红利与现代流媒体技术碰撞出的“近乎完美的商业娱乐机器”。然而，主播强调该模式在西方成熟体育市场几乎不可复制，因为美国缺乏一个拥有绝对管辖权且能完全剥夺球员外部选择权的单一管理机构。此外，高估值能否经受住印度国内广告市场增长的长期检验、2013年点球假球（spot-fixing）事件暴露的地下博彩信任风险，以及短暂赛季对高额场馆基建投资回报率的制约，仍是IPL持续扩张面临的核心挑战。

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=0s) 开场：加尔各答骑士队队歌与宝莱坞狂欢 播客在一首极具感染力的战歌中拉开帷幕。Ben 正在收听加尔各答骑士队（Kolkata Knight Riders）的队歌作为录制前的热身（pump-up song），直呼太棒了。David 随即问他是否看过这部由球队老板、宝莱坞超级巨星沙鲁克·汗（Shah Rukh Khan）主演的音乐 MV。Ben 之前从未看过，立刻在录制现场点开观看。虽然带有 2008 年时期的轻微夸张感与土味（a little cheesy），但整体氛围绝对是完美的打气音乐：画面里充斥着球员在烈火中的剪影、宝莱坞群舞，甚至还有建筑工人的镜头，既狂热又酷炫（"Too hot, too cool"）。Ben 惊叹之余甚至开玩笑说干脆别录节目了，只想一遍又一遍地重播这支视频，并感叹美国体育绝对应该借鉴这种将流行文化与体育娱乐深度融合的模式。 伴随着经典的 Acquired 片头音乐，两位主持人 Ben Gilbert 和 David Rosenthal 正式宣布 2025 年春季赛季回归。这一期的主题是全球体育产业中最引人入胜的奇迹故事——板球（Cricket），特别是印度板球超级联赛（IPL, Indian Premier League）。 --- ### [01:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=81s) 从零缔造商业奇迹：IPL 的颠覆性力量 回顾几个月前 David 最初提出做板球主题时，Ben 的第一反应是“我对板球完全不感兴趣”，而且猜测许多美国听众也会有同感。但事实证明这种偏见错得离谱——即使在美国本土，目前也已有 2000 万硬核板球粉丝。更重要的是，这期节目的核心远不止于板球这项运动本身，而是一个关于**如何从零开始打造一个极其庞大且成功的职业体育联盟**的教科书级商业案例。 以往制作 NFL（美式橄榄球联盟）和 NBA 的播客专题时，他们得出的结论是：现代顶级体育联盟需要经历上百年的漫长积淀才可能达到如今的规模。然而，IPL 创立于 2008 年，至今仅仅历经 17 年，却彻底颠覆了全球体育娱乐产业。IPL 本质上是一个被精心设计出的“终极娱乐产品”： - **大幅压缩比赛时长**：他们将传统英国板球那种节奏缓慢、讲求绅士礼仪、动辄长达五天的比赛（Test Cricket），压缩至节奏紧凑、高潮迭起的 3 小时短格式赛制。 - **极致的观赏刺激**：比赛变成纯粹的高对抗强打对轰，重点在于击出六分球（Sixes，相当于棒球里的全垒打）。 - **顶级娱乐要素融合**：融入宝莱坞明星光环、现场群舞、拉拉队表演与灿烂烟花。 - **高门槛资本博弈**：联盟初创便面向印度顶级富豪和电影巨星举行了高规格、高筹码的球队竞拍。 - **吸收美式体育精华**：仔细研究并全盘吸收 NFL 和 NBA 赖以成功的商业运作机制，随后将其注入“超级类固醇”（applied them on steroids）。 从商业价值与宫廷权斗的角度来看，IPL 拥有 Acquired 研究过的所有商业体中最错综复杂的“深宫内斗”（palace intrigue）。它交织着迪士尼（Disney）、菲利普·莫里斯（Philip Morris）、鲁伯特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）、信实工业（Reliance）、塔塔集团（Tata）甚至谷歌（Google）的身影；伴随着个性极其复杂但极富远见的初创人物、腐败指控、利益输送、非法博彩及操纵比赛丑闻。然而，联赛在这一切波折中展现出了惊人的韧性，以摧枯拉朽之势快速扩张： - 自 2008 年成立以来，联赛估值暴增 **20 倍**，如今估值已超过 **160 亿美元**。 - **单场媒体转播权价值全球第二**，仅次于 NFL；其每场比赛的电视转播权收益已经超越了英超足球联赛（Premier League）、NBA 以及北美职棒大联盟（MLB）。 从某种角度看，IPL 像是纯粹、不加掩饰的资本主义在体育界的大胆实验；但从另一维度看，它在印度更像是一种“宗教”、一种凝聚全民的文化力量，甚至成为国际外交的运作工具。David 更是提出了一个极为大胆的预言：在未来的 20 年内，IPL 极有可能全面超越 NFL，成为**全球商业价值最大、规模最庞大的体育联赛**。如果说 NFL 是资本主义与共产主义（均贫富的转播权共享与工资帽机制）的完美混合体，那么 IPL 则是**资本主义与宗教信仰的终极结晶**。 --- ### [04:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=285s) 播客动态与赞助商致谢 在正式展开历史叙事之前，两位主持人同步了节目的重要公告与社区近况： - **纽约线下见面会**：响应多年来听众的呼声，Acquired 团队将于 7 月 15 日携手长期合作伙伴摩根大通支付（J.P. Morgan Payments）在纽约举办专场活动，听众可前往 `acquire.fm/nyc` 关注最新动态。 - **官方邮件列表与社区互动**：听众可以通过 `acquired.fm/email` 加入邮件列表，获取下期线索及节目勘误。Ben 借此对大量劳力士表友（Rolex enthusiasts）针对此前一期节目发来的各种细微型号勘误表达了谢意。同时欢迎大家加入官方 Slack 频道交流，并推荐收听副线播客 ACQ2（近期包括对 ServiceNow 首席执行官 Bill McDermott 畅谈企业软件销售艺术的深度专访）。 - **免责声明与赞助商**：感谢冠名赞助商 J.P. Morgan Payments 对企业成长全流程（从种子轮到 IPO）的资金支付赋能，并重申节目观点不构成任何投资建议。 --- ### [06:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=396s) 传奇操盘手拉利特·莫迪的登场与跨界灵感 故事的源头要追溯至 20 世纪 90 年代初，核心人物是一个极具争议、充满戏剧色彩的角色——拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi，与现任印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪并无亲属关系）。拉利特出身于印度的莫迪商业豪门，其父是著名实业家 K.K. 莫迪（K. K. Modi）。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Lalit Modi Early Influence and Concept Flow accDescr: Diagram tracing Lalit Modi from Duke University sports media observations to leveraging tobacco distribution for Disney and sports broadcasting in India. subgraph College ["留美求学经历"] A["就读杜克大学 (Duke)"] --> B["目睹美国狂热体育文化<br/>周一橄榄球之夜成为社交锚点"] end subgraph Business ["莫迪家族企业资源"] C["K.K. 莫迪烟草工业帝国<br/>(与 Philip Morris 合资)"] D["覆盖全印度的分销网络<br/>(8万至10万线下推销员)"] C --> D end subgraph Cable ["全印有线电视拓荒"] E["跨国合作：牵线迪士尼内容入印"] F["渠道复用：烟草业务员地推草根有线电视网运营商"] G["开启印度家庭付费娱乐大门<br/>为日后引入现代体育转播铺路"] D --> F E --> F F --> G end B --> E ``` 在印度的工业经济体系中，大型公司几乎都呈现出如信实（Reliance）或塔塔（Tata）般的大型综合财阀（conglomerate）形态，莫迪家族的企业也是如此。莫迪家族的核心产业深植于烟草制造业，并与跨国巨头菲利普·莫里斯（Philip Morris）建立了合资企业，成为全印度最顶尖的卷烟与烟草供应商之一。作为家族产业的法定继承人，年轻的拉利特·莫迪被派往美国留学接受高等教育。他先是进入佩斯大学（Pace University），随后转入杜克大学（Duke University）。虽然最终并未完成学业便返回印度重入家族企业，但在杜克大学的岁月彻底重塑了他的商业认知： - **震撼于美国庞大的体育商业生态**：目睹了杜克大学师生对大学篮球的痴狂程度，拉利特意识到体育在现代美国不仅是一种狂热信仰，更是一门体量庞大的商业帝国，其背后的**体育传媒产业（Sports Media）**更是利润极其惊人的摇钱树。 - **“周一橄榄球之夜”（Monday Night Football）的仪式感启蒙**：拉利特发现每逢周一晚上，朋友们都会雷打不动地聚在电视机前观看转播，没有任何娱乐活动可以与之竞争，体育转播在当时成为了绝对的“必看预约电视节目”（appointment viewing）。 回到 20 世纪 90 年代初的印度，当时正值千家万户有线电视普及的前夜。此前印度缺乏成熟的商业体育土壤，体育传媒行业更是一片荒原，但这恰恰为拉利特提供了一块未经开垦的肥沃市场。 拉利特立刻采取行动，主动接洽当时持有 ESPN 80% 股权的华特迪士尼公司（The Walt Disney Company）。他以家族与菲利普·莫里斯在印度合资落地的成功经验作为背书，说服迪士尼借助莫迪家族的本地网络切入印度市场。起初的合作并未直接切入 ESPN 的体育板块，而是率先引进了迪士尼的经典儿童电影和周边娱乐内容。在推展过程中，拉利特展现出极其惊人的商业操盘天才： - **渠道复用（Distribution Leverage）**：莫迪家族的烟草企业拥有遍布印度全国的大约 **8 万至 10 万名** 销售代表，其线下触角深度覆盖了印度辽阔村镇中数以万计的街角杂货铺与便利店。 - **收编“草莽”有线电视运营商**：当时印度除了国家公共广播电视网全印电视台（Doordarshan）外，民间正自发涌现出大量家庭作坊式的“草根有线电视运营个体户”（mom and pop proto-cable operators）。这些人在社区私自拉线、将信号接入成百上千家住户。拉利特正是利用这支庞大而深入的烟草地推部队，顺藤摸瓜找到了各城镇乡野的本地布线操盘手，成功将迪士尼的优质付费内容源源不断地输送进千家万户。 ### [10:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=624s) 电视进入印度与默多克的入局 在 1990 年代初的印度，有线电视网络刚刚起步。当时的模式通常是小运营商家中装有卫星锅，从 CNN 等频道接收信号，再通过物理电缆拉进千家万户。此时的拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）扮演着内容创作者与分发渠道之间的中间人角色——他既不需要亲自制作迪士尼的电影内容，也不需要自己去街头拉电缆，而是作为迪士尼进军印度的合资伙伴（JV Partner）。 然而，看到印度这个庞大新兴消费市场电视普及潜力的，远不止迪士尼一家。新闻集团（News Corp）及其掌门人鲁伯特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）同样虎视眈眈。默多克此前在美国建立福克斯电视帝国靠的是两大支柱：起初是新闻，但真正让福克斯一飞冲天的是体育——拿下美国 NFL 周日赛事的转播权直接让福克斯名声大噪。默多克将这套“福克斯体育打法”带到了印度，新闻集团在印度推出了名为 Star 的品牌和频道。 默多克很快就意识到，在印度真正算得上全民众所归的运动只有一项，那就是板球（Cricket）。更巧的是，他发现当时获取印度国家板球队赛事的转播权简直便宜得不可思议。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 默多克在印度的体育媒体扩张模式 accDescr: 展示默多克如何将美国的体育版权打法复制到印度板球市场 subgraph US_Playbook["美国成功经验"] NFL["NFL 转播权"] --> Fox["Fox 电视网起飞"] end subgraph India_Playbook["印度落地实践"] Star["Star 频道上线"] --> Cricket["锁定板球赛事"] Cricket --> CheapRights["低价扫荡国家队转播权"] CheapRights --> Dominance["Star 成为印度板球转播主阵地"] end US_Playbook -.->|"复制商业打法"| India_Playbook ``` --- ### [12:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=724s) 昔日的板球世界与转播权争夺战 当时的板球生态与今天截然不同：没有类似于英超（EPL）那样的城市俱乐部职业联赛，它本质上是一项纯粹的国家队国际赛事——印度国家队巡回迎战其他国家，或是参加四年一度的世界杯。但随着印度家庭电视拥有率的激增，印度国家队的比赛迅速演变成全民必看的“黄金赛事”，地位堪比美国的周一橄榄球之夜（Monday Night Football）或超级碗季后赛，几乎每个能看到电视的印度男性都在紧盯荧幕。 默多克以极低的价格横扫了这些转播权，Star 瞬间成为印度收看板球赛事的唯一圣地。与迪士尼合作的拉利特·莫迪敏锐地察觉到了危机与机遇，他向迪士尼高层力陈：“你们手里明明有 ESPN，我们必须涉足体育，必须拿下板球！” 为了争夺转播权，莫迪与 ESPN、迪士尼联合了大型国际体育经纪巨头 IMG（即此前在劳力士品牌代言项目中操盘杰克·尼克劳斯、阿诺德·帕尔默等传奇合作的同一家机构），共同找上了掌控印度板球转播权的管理机构——印度板球控局（BCCI，Board of Control for Cricket in India）。莫迪团队直截了当地告诉 BCCI：“你们把转播权卖给默多克卖得太便宜了！我们愿意出更高的价钱，你们应该开启公开竞标拍卖。” - **BCCI 的职能属性**：BCCI 并非政府机构，但也不是一个纯粹追求利润最大化的商业组织，而是一个监管性机构，负责在印度本土发展板球运动、建设基础设施并确保其长久繁荣。 - **国际组织演变**：全球各大板球国家（英格兰、澳大利亚、斯里兰卡、西印度群岛等）均有类似机构，最终统归国际板球理事会（ICC）。ICC 在 1909 年创立时原名“帝国板球会议”（Imperial Cricket Conference），鲜明地折射出板球随着大英帝国殖民扩张的历史轨迹。 --- ### [15:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=905s) “价值二十万美元”的意外顿悟与合法所有权 令人啼笑皆非的是，就在不久之前，印度方面根本都不知道自己还拥有“板球电视转播权”这项可以变现的资产。 转折点发生在 1991 年，当时南非国家板球队前往印度进行巡回友谊赛。南非板球协会主动询问 BCCI：“我们想在南非转播这几场比赛，我们需要付给你们多少转播权费用？”此前，印度曾在 1983 年奇迹般首夺板球世界杯，并在 1987 年与巴基斯坦联合主办了世界杯（首次移出英格兰本土），板球热度正空前高涨，但印度人对赛事版权的商业价值毫无概念。 面对南非的询问，BCCI 内部私下商量：“我们该要多少钱？要 1 万美元会不会太离谱了？干脆先要 2 万美元吧，给他们留点砍价空间。”结果，当代表 BCCI 出面谈判的传奇理事贾格莫汉·达尔米亚（Jagmohan Dalmiya）还没来得及开口，对面的南非代表便主动试探道：“我们出 20 万美元，你们觉得合适吗？”达尔米亚当即毫不犹豫地拍板：“成交！” 这次意外让达尔米亚如梦初醒，意识到转播权的巨大商业价值。不久后，达尔米亚带领 BCCI 与印度国营电视台全印电视台（Doordarshan）对簿公堂，最终赢得法律裁决：确立了 BCCI 是印度板球赛事版权的唯一所有者，即便是印度官方国家电视台，也必须真金白银向 BCCI 购买转播权，BCCI 拥有将其出售给任何出价最高者的完全自主权。 正如印度学者阿席斯·南迪（Ashis Nandy）在《板球之道》（*The Tao of Cricket*）中写下的名言： > “板球是一项由英格兰人偶然发现的印度运动。”（Cricket is an Indian game accidentally discovered by the English.） --- ### [18:34](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=1114s) 达尔米亚的中央合同与莫迪出局 达尔米亚不仅通过法律锁定了媒体转播权，还在 2001 年做出了另一项影响深远的制度改革：由 BCCI 引入针对印度国家队球员的“中央合同制”（Central Contracts）以及退役球员养老金制度。这意味着印度板球运动员的薪水全部直接由 BCCI 发放，BCCI 与全国顶尖球员建立了牢固的契约关系。这项球员雇佣垄断权与媒体赛事转播权相结合，成为了未来印度板球超级联赛（IPL）横空出世的两大基石。 与此同时，ESPN 与默多克旗下的 Star 围绕 BCCI 板球转播权的争夺战愈演愈烈，不断推高版权价格。到了 1996 年，双方眼见竞争导致两败俱伤，鉴于当时印度反垄断审查尚不严格，Star 与 ESPN 决定握手言和、合并业务。 然而在合并后的新实体中，矛盾迅速爆发： - **莫迪的叙事**：默多克怀恨在心，觉得自己因为莫迪横插一脚而多花了大笔冤枉钱，不得不妥协与 ESPN 合并，因此在合并后蓄意将莫迪排挤出局。 - **Star 与迪士尼的指控**：合资实体指控莫迪私下少报收缴的订阅收入，并私自向底层有线电视网络运营商索取回扣。 双方随即卷入了长达数年的诉讼拉锯战。最终，拉利特·莫迪被彻底踢出了这项电视业务。 ### [20:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=1237s) 被逐出局与拉利特·莫迪的复仇誓言 尽管莫迪家族在最初的 ESPN 与迪士尼合资企业中拥有 50% 的所有权，拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）最终却落得两手空空，被彻底扫地出门。在莫迪自己的视角里，这种结局简直残酷至极：“是我创立了迪士尼印度公司，是我推动了印度有线电视的现代化，是我把现代体育直播带到了印度。这一切都是我做的，结果转眼之间我被彻底踢出局，什么都没捞到。”而在他的内心深处，这一切的罪魁祸首正是鲁珀特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）——默多克从莫迪家族手中偷走了这一切，从此成了莫迪不共戴天的死敌。 这场仇怨拉开了一段长达十到十五年漫长征程的序幕。这不仅是莫迪对默多克极致的个人复仇，更戏剧性的是，他在复仇的过程中阴差阳错地开创了世界体育商业史上最庞大的一场创业奇迹。主播们特别指出，制作本期节目与以往最大的不同在于，这段历史中的每一个关键事件都存在两个版本截然相反的叙事，且双方当事人都坚称自己的版本才是唯一的真相。在以往研究的大多数商业案例中，历史往往由胜利者书写并逐渐收敛为一种标准答案；但在印度板球超级联赛（IPL）以及拉利特·莫迪的历史上，双方各执一词、寸步不让，彼此指责对方“满嘴谎言、绝无此事”，导致外界极难抽丝剥茧还原百分之百的客观真相。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 拉利特·莫迪的复仇路径图 accDescr: 展示拉利特·莫迪如何从被ESPN合资企业扫地出门，转而通过掌控BCCI以在体育转播权上打击默多克 subgraph 恩怨起点 A["被逐出 ESPN/迪士尼合资企业"] --> B["视默多克为死敌<br/>立誓展开个人复仇"] end subgraph 权力渗透 B --> C["目标：夺取印度板球控制权<br/>（默多克Star电视网的核心资产）"] C --> D["1999 加入小型邦板球协会（受挫）"] D --> E["2003-2004 策动拉贾斯坦邦协会政变<br/>当选邦协会主席"] E --> F["2005 成功进入 BCCI 董事会"] end subgraph 商业风暴 F --> G["打破低价转播与赞助旧习<br/>全面商业化重塑印度板球"] end ``` --- ### [22:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=1343s) 印度商业生态与渗入板球管理机构（BCCI） 要理解这起纠纷，必须先了解 20 世纪 80 年代至 90 年代初印度的商业大环境。在西方商业语境中，当时的印度常被委婉地称为“低信任度环境”。这意味着投资者必须亲自、极其紧密地盯防自己的利益，整个市场充斥着回扣与寻租空间；跨国公司当时进军印度，风险完全自负。然而，所谓“腐败与回扣”只是西方或美国视角下的定性，换个角度来看，这不过是当地早已固化的商业游戏规则——迪士尼或新闻集团（News Corp）作为外来跨国巨头，既然来到印度，就必须按印度的规则玩，而不是试图强加西方的秩序。 被扫地出门的拉利特·莫迪对新闻集团、Star 电视台乃至鲁珀特·默多克本人结下了极深的“血海深仇”（blood vendetta）。要给予默多克最沉痛的一击，就必须瞄准新闻集团棋盘上最关键的棋子——体育赛事转播。在莫迪眼中，体育赛事的职业化和电视转播本就是他的立身之本，他必须从默多克手中夺回来。而垄断印度板球运动的最高管理权力机构，正是印度板球管理委员会（Board of Control for Cricket in India，简称 BCCI）。 - **权力晋升路径**：想进入 BCCI 董事会，首要前提是成为印度各邦板球协会的董事或主席。 - **1999 年的初次尝试**：莫迪先是成功加入了印度一个较小邦的板球协会董事会，但随后推进并不顺利。 - **2003 至 2004 年的政变**：莫迪转战拉贾斯坦邦板球协会（Rajasthan Cricket Association），迅速策动了一场相当于董事会政变的行动，于 2003 至 2004 年间成功当选拉贾斯坦邦板球协会主席，正式拿到了通往 BCCI 权力中枢的门票。 - **炮轰转播权被严重贱卖**：掌权后，莫迪立即公开向 BCCI 施压，指责其将国际板球赛事的电视转播权贱卖到了荒谬的地步。他虽然当年在 ESPN 时也是廉价买入转播权的推手之一，但他比谁都清楚这些版权的真正吸引力与收视规模。当时 BCCI 每年仅以 1000 万至 1500 万美元的低价出售转播权，莫迪却断言其价值至少数以亿计。 --- ### [25:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=1535s) 利益冲突的死水与“破坏球”式入局 在 2004 年宣称印度板球转播权每年价值数亿美元，在当时所有人看来简直是天方夜谭、痴人说梦，但这恰恰切中了未来的客观事实。莫迪以一匹黑马改革者的姿态，试图将这个半官方性质的组织彻底推向商业化。必须明确的是，BCCI 当时的法定职责根本不是“利润最大化”，它不是一家需要向股东负责的资本主义企业，其设立初衷仅仅是保护和推广板球运动、保障国家队的竞争力。 彼时 BCCI 内部充斥着巨大的利益冲突。委员会的成员大多来自印度本土的豪门工业家族，他们的诉求是在迪士尼、新闻集团等跨国巨头面前维持良好的人脉关系，以便为家族企业争取商业合作机会，或者将自家产品放在板球比赛及这些电视台的其他节目中做广告。而莫迪之所以完全没有这种利益牵绊，恰恰是因为他早已被合资公司踢出局。无欲则刚的莫迪心中只剩下一个目标：复仇。2005 年，莫迪正式当选为 BCCI 董事会成员。当时他并非最高主席，仅仅是五到七名董事之一，但他却像一颗势不可挡的“破坏球”（wrecking ball），在短短两个月内就彻底颠覆了整座机构的运转规则。 --- ### [27:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=1646s) 荒唐的商业化现状：十万美元的宗教级垄断 莫迪上任后采取的第一项举措，就是审查印度国家板球战队的官方冠名呈现赞助商（Title Presenting Sponsor）。作为国家队的顶级赞助商，其标志不仅会印在国家队战袍最核心的位置，还会出现在电视直播画面中。当时的赞助商是印度老牌家族企业巨头撒哈拉集团（Sahara Group）。 令人咋舌的是这笔顶级赞助协议的金额： - **撒哈拉集团当年的赞助费**：每年仅为 **10 万美元**（播客主播原以为至少 100 万美元，听到 10 万美元时惊呼不可思议）。 - **极度悬殊的关注度**：在印度，板球根本不是一项普通的运动，它近乎是一种全民宗教，占据了印度体育市场 **93% 的关注度份额**（以收视时长计算）。作为对比，美式橄榄球（NFL）在美国的收视份额还不足 50%（约 37%）。 - **巨大的商业价值倒挂**：印度拥有全球数一数二的人口规模，也是全球增长最快的大型经济体，中产阶层正急剧扩张。然而，一个每年拥有 **105 天全天候国家电视转播赛事**的国家级垄断运动，冠名费竟然只要区区 10 万美元。即便是在印巴对决（India vs. Pakistan）这种全国瞬间万人空巷、百业停摆的世纪对决日，单场比赛的商业潜能原本就价值数百万甚至上千万美元。 --- ### [29:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=1756s) 板球赛制简史：从五日测试赛到单日国际赛 在莫迪入局推行改革的那个时代，国际主流的板球比赛形态主要有两种： | 比赛形态 | 兴起时间 / 特点 | 单场比赛时长 | 节奏与观赛体验 | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **单日国际赛（ODI, One-Day International）** | 20 世纪 70 至 80 年代发明 | 约 8 小时（整整一天） | 专为锦标赛和循环赛设立，节奏较快，全国观众整整一天守在电视机前观看 | | **测试赛（Test Cricket）** | 板球最古典、最神圣的传统赛制 | 长达 5 天 | 极为沉静、注重策略与心理博弈，赛场氛围宛如高尔夫，观赏门槛极高 | 关于“测试赛”（Test）名称的由来自有一番渊源：板球最初由大英帝国推广至各个英联邦国家，当海外殖民地及自治领球队组队来到英国伦敦的圣地罗德板球场（Lord's Cricket Ground）时，比赛是对这支队伍意志、耐力与技术极限的严苛考验，更是为了“测试”他们对抗英格兰国家队的能力。测试赛整整打满五天，其格调优雅内敛，与看似相似的棒球比赛有着截然不同的慢节奏韵味。 主播大卫·罗森塔尔（David Rosenthal）在此分享了一段童年往事：他拥有四分之一的英国血统，小时候每隔一个夏天的两到四周，他都会去英格兰中部的乡村探望外祖母。尽管他在美国长大、热爱棒球，但每逢英格兰的夏日，电视机里整天循环播放的就是漫长的五日板球测试赛。那种安详而充满智斗魅力的画面，构成了几代观众对这项传统贵族运动最初的集体记忆，也与日后即将爆发的激烈现代商业风暴形成了鲜明对照。 ### [31:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=1871s) 板球测试赛的规则与“平局”的奇特机制 板球向来被称为“绅士运动中的绅士运动”（the gentleman's game of gentleman's games）。在传统形式中，球员们往往在炎炎夏日里身穿白色的 V 领绞花针织毛衣上场比赛。这种比赛的激励机制与现代快节奏球类运动截然相反：球员的目标并不是像棒球那样奋力击出全垒打（在板球中为六分打），而是打出贴地的平飞球，稳稳地一次拿下一分。因为一场测试赛（Test Cricket）会长达五天，双方有充裕的时间让战术徐徐展开，根本不必像现代版本的板球那样分秒必争地榨干每一次投球的得分潜力。 在传统板球测试赛以及早期单日国际赛（ODI）中，比赛存在四种可能的结果：胜、负、平（Tie），以及和局（Draw）。这里“平”（Tie）与“和局”（Draw）有着本质的区别： - **Tie（比分战平）**：指比赛全部局数打完后双方得分完全一致。由于比赛长达数日且单方得分经常高达数百甚至上千，真正出现比分精确相同的情况极其罕见。 - **Draw（未分胜负的和局）**：指在规定的比赛时间耗尽时，处于进攻击球阶段的球队尚未完成其局数（即防守方没能在时间结束前将对方所有击球手全部淘汰出局）。 这意味着即便太阳落山、该吃晚饭了，只要落后方的击球手依然站在场上没有全部被淘汰，哪怕比分远远落后，这场比赛也会直接判定为和局（类似于 DNF，“Did Not Finish”）。这一规则催生了极为奇葩的战术——当落后的一方在最后一局击球且自知翻盘无望时，他们唯一的策略就是全力拖延时间、死守球门，只要把比赛拖到时间结束，就能从一场必败之局中偷得一场和局。 --- ### [33:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=2018s) 拉利特·莫迪的球衣赞助政变：撒哈拉集团天价续约 进入 20 世纪 70 年代后，虽然五天的传统测试赛依然保留，但单日国际赛（ODI）等节奏更快的形式开始普及，球员也逐渐换上了现代运动服。在这个时期，印度国家板球队蕴含着极其惊人的商业“库存”：国家队每年要打整整 105 天的比赛。然而，印度庞大的商业帝国撒哈拉集团（Sahara Group）在此前每年仅需支付区区 10 万美元，就能将自己的企业 Logo 印在印度国家队的白色球衣上。 2005 年，野心勃勃的拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）终于成功跻身印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）高层。他上任后的第一把火，就是直接找上撒哈拉集团挑明：“价格要涨了，现在的定价是每个比赛日 100 万美元。”这意味着撒哈拉集团每年的赞助费将直接从 10 万美元暴涨至约 1,500 万美元。莫迪毫不客气地通牒：如果撒哈拉不接受，他很乐意直接把球衣赞助权推向公开拍卖，看看市场上到底有人愿意出多少。 出人意料的是，这笔交易甚至没有走入拍卖环节，撒哈拉集团就果断低头全盘接受。因为他们非常清楚，在印度这片土地上，如果一个品牌想要触达全印度的国民心智，途径只有两个：宝莱坞（Bollywood）和板球（Cricket）。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 印度国家板球队球衣赞助价值重构 accDescr: 展示拉利特·莫迪在2005年加入BCCI前后球衣赞助金额的巨大飞跃 subgraph 前莫迪时代 A["旧合同：撒哈拉集团<br/>每年10万美元"] end subgraph 莫迪改革 B["强行重新定价<br/>每个比赛日100万美元"] --> C["新合同：撒哈拉集团<br/>每年约1500万美元"] end A -.->|"2005年莫迪入职BCCI"| B C --> D["一夜之间成为<br/>全球单件球衣赞助之最"] ``` 这次调价堪称商业奇迹：一夜之间，印度国家队的球衣胸前广告直接跃升为当时全球所有体育运动中价值最高的单一球衣赞助协议。原本几乎没有经过商业化开发的资产，转瞬变成了全球最值钱的招牌。 --- ### [35:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=2103s) 印度中产阶级的超速崛起：比全美人口还庞大的消费洪流 莫迪之所以能在瞬间榨取出如此惊人的天价，背后的根本推手是印度中产阶级的爆炸式膨胀。这一社会结构剧变彻底重塑了印度的消费市场： - **90 年代初的起点**：当莫迪最初尝试涉足商业、迪士尼和星空卫视（Star TV）刚进入印度市场时，全印度家庭年可支配收入超过 10,000 美元的只有大约 200 万户。 - **2005 年的飞跃**：到莫迪进入 BCCI 并颠覆各项商业转播与赞助条款时，符合该中产标准的家庭数量翻了 10 倍，达到 2,000 万至 3,000 万户。 - **当下的量级**：到了今天，印度的中产阶级人口已经突破 5.5 亿（定义为年收入在 7,000 美元至 45,000 美元之间的群体）。 虽然印度对中产阶级的收入界定与美国标准有所不同，但从绝对购买力来看，年收入 7,000 美元以上已经足以让他们成为百事可乐、智能手机、移动数据套餐以及耐克、锐步等消费品的核心客群。印度的中产阶级目前约占其总人口的 31%，然而仅这 31% 的绝对人口数量（5.5 亿人），就已经远远超过了整个美国的总人口。此外，据印度政府官方数据，仅在 2015 年至今的这段时间里，就有 2.5 亿印度人摆脱了贫困——相当于把整个美国成年人口规模的群体一次性抬出了绝对贫困线，推入了现代消费品市场。这种人口红利的释放速度在人类经济史上绝无仅有。 --- ### [37:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=2257s) 装备赞助公开拍卖：耐克入局与莫迪的媒体秀 解决完球衣正面赞助后，莫迪立刻盯上了另一块未开发的处女地：全队的装备与球衣制造商赞助（Kit Sponsor）。在此之前，印度板球队甚至没有统一的官方装备赞助商，仅有少数明星球员私下签有廉价代言。 莫迪直接召集了当时全球三大体育用品巨头——耐克（Nike）、阿迪达斯（Adidas）和锐步（Reebok），宣布将印度国家板球队的官方球衣装备供应权进行公开竞标。他开出的底价极其惊人：每年至少 5,000 万美元。 深谙舆论与媒体影响力的莫迪把这场商业竞标包装成了一场真人秀盛宴。他要求三大品牌将最终报价装在密封信封中递交，随后召开了一场全印媒体瞩目的新闻发布会，在闪光灯与摄像机镜头前当场拆开信封，其戏剧张力堪比日后勒布朗·詹姆斯的《决定》（The Decision）。最终，耐克以每年 5,200 万美元的出价中标。 至此，莫迪入职 BCCI 董事会仅仅两个月，就在原本几乎为零的赞助项目中凭空创造出了每年超过 1.5 亿美元的商业赞助收入。在莫迪到来前，BCCI 每年仅靠电视转播权赚取一两千万美元，而莫迪在短短 60 天内，单靠两项赞助就实现了过去全部收入的十倍爆发。手握这场大胜的筹码，莫迪下一步将目标锁向了终极巨头：他预约了与控制星空卫视（Star TV）的媒体大亨鲁伯特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）的直接会面。 --- ### [39:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=2363s) 赞助商插播：摩根大通支付与全渠道粉丝消费体验 在讲述莫迪与默多克交手之前，节目接入了主赞助商摩根大通支付（JP Morgan Payments）的介绍。 现代体育与大型娱乐活动的观赛体验，早已超越了现场看球本身，而是贯穿了赛前、赛中和赛后的全流程客户旅程。当涉及到现场商品销售和零售消费时，球迷期待的是流畅、迅捷、无缝的跨平台交易。 - **大通中心（Chase Center）人脸识别支付**：去年 Acquired 在金州勇士队主场大通中心举办线下专场（Acquired Live）时，现场特许商品摊位便率先落地了由摩根大通支付支持的“刷脸支付”（pay-by-face）生物识别自助终端。用户只需关联支付方式并现场拍摄一张自拍，即可完成设置并进行秒级结账。该技术在极大加快现场排队结账效率的同时，凭借独一无二的人脸生物特征大幅降低了盗刷风险。 - **全美规模与 F1 落地应用**：摩根大通支付的处理规模极大，全美每两笔电子商务交易中就有一笔由其处理。此前 F1 迈阿密大奖赛（Formula 1 Crypto.com Miami Grand Prix）成为全球首个引入摩根大通生物识别支付技术的赛车赛事，试点中 100% 的交易在不到一秒内完成验证与扣款，随后迅速扩展到现场实体周边店及线上零售全渠道中。 ### [41:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=2516s) 与默多克摊牌：撕毁合约与6.2亿美元的天价转播权竞标 拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）刚进入印度板球超级管理机构 BCCI 两个月，就决定算一笔当年的旧账。他安排了一场与传媒大亨鲁伯特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）的私人会面，时间定在一个看似惬意的周五下午茶时段，颇有传统板球运动所标榜的绅士做派。当时默多克旗下的星空传媒（Star TV，此时已与 ESPN 体育频道合并）每年仅为印度板球转播权支付约 1000 万至 1500 万美元。两人坐定后，拉利特单刀直入：“默多克先生，我特此通知你，你的合同即刻终止。我们将重新公开竞标该转播权，欢迎你提交标书，但我们设定的底价是四年 5 亿美元。” 听到这个数字，默多克差点把嘴里的茶喷了出来，直呼拉利特疯了——这可是当前价格的十倍整。更重要的是，默多克认为拉利特手中根本没有筹码：当时全印度除了星空和 ESPN，根本没有其他专业体育频道；印度也几乎没有除板球之外有商业价值的体育项目。“全印度只有我一家在做体育电视，你这是在敲诈我，还想撕毁 BCCI 的有效合同？你才上任两个月，赶紧走人吧，你根本离不开我。” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 转播权重新竞标流程图 accDescr: 拉利特·莫迪终止默多克的星空传媒低价合同并引入外部竞争对手使转播权溢价数倍的过程 subgraph S1["打破垄断"] A["默多克与星空传媒<br/>每年仅付1000万-1500万美元"] --> B["拉利特单方面撕毁合同<br/>开出4年5亿美元竞标底价"] end subgraph S2["引入新买家"] B --> C["游说索尼 Sony"] B --> D["游说英国天空电视台 Sky"] B --> E["游说印度本土娱乐巨头 Nimbus"] end subgraph S3["竞标结果"] E --> F["Nimbus 胜出：4年6.2亿美元"] F --> G["创办 Nimbus 体育频道<br/>跃升全印第一体育台"] F --> H["默多克与星空传媒出局"] end ``` 但默多克低估了拉利特的商业手腕。拉利特的逻辑非常清晰：所谓“专业体育频道”不过是一个营销标签，既然他当年能从零拉起 ESPN 印度频道，任何主流广播电视网络都可以通过买下核心版权轻松开办体育频道。此时电视网络在印度普及已有 15 年，市场上存在大量资本雄厚的广播电视公司。拉利特随即接触了印度第二大电视网索尼（Sony）、英国天空电视台（Sky），以及本土娱乐广播公司 Nimbus。他向各方保证：只要拿下板球转播权，开办体育频道轻而易举，且利润丰厚。竞标结果令整个传媒业震惊——Nimbus 以四年 6.2 亿美元的天价中标。Nimbus 随后开播自己的体育频道，凭借独家板球版权瞬间跃升为印度收视率第一的体育频道，而默多克则彻底被踢出局。 ### [45:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=2707s) 打造印度的“吸金巨兽”与永远不满足的商业野心 通过这次强硬的重新谈判与招商，拉利特在短时间内把过去毫无商业头脑、收入微薄的 BCCI 塑造成了一台超级印钞机： - 商业赞助层面，仅凭两笔主要赞助就斩获了 1.5 亿美元； - 赛事转播权层面，每年进账超过 1.5 亿美元（四年 6.2 亿美元）； - BCCI 年总收入瞬间突破 3 亿美元大关，且后续商业化空间远未见顶。 多年后拉利特因涉嫌内幕交易和利益冲突被逐出 BCCI，面临铺天盖地的声讨时，他曾公开辩护：“是我从无到有，为印度板球、BCCI、政府和所有球员创造了数十亿美元的真实价值。”这一辩白从商业事实上看无可辩驳。他不仅成功报了当年被默多克边缘化的一箭之仇，还将印度板球打造成了全球资金最雄厚的板球市场，其体量将传统板球强国英格兰、澳大利亚、西印度群岛、斯里兰卡和新西兰远远甩在身后。 即便在 2005 年底前就达成了如此伟业，拉利特依然没有停下脚步。他敏锐地察觉到一个供给端的巨大瓶颈：印度国家板球队每年参加的国际比赛大约只有 105 天。从商业库存（Inventory）的角度看，仅仅依靠一支球队打 105 场球，内容产出实在太有限了。作为对比，NFL 每年包含季后赛在内大约有 285 场比赛，虽然是全球版权最稀缺的联盟，但主要是因为美式橄榄球对球员身体碰撞的损耗极大，赛程无法再增加；而 MLB（美国职业棒球大联盟）每年要打近 2500 场。板球这项运动原本就是为了连续打五天而设计的，球员身体耐受度极高，商业价值还有巨大的深挖空间。 ### [48:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=2884s) IPL 的构想与 BCCI 的制度垄断优势 这种对更多赛事内容的渴求，催生了整个体育商业史上公认最成功、最具开创性的商业企划案——印度板球超级联赛（Indian Premier League，简称 IPL）。拉利特计划打造一个以印度本土城市为基底的特许经营板球联赛，全面融合 NFL、英超（EPL）和 NBA 的最佳制度元素。 更致命的是，IPL 拥有任何西方职业体育联盟都不具备的独一无二的底层制度优势：BCCI 对印度板球运动的绝对控制权。 - 在美国，没有一个凌驾于 NFL 之上的官方总局来发号施令； - 在印度，BCCI 既是管理者又是监管者，它统一管理所有球员的劳资合同与薪酬标准，拥有决定球员“准许参加或禁止参加某项赛事”的终极生杀大权，并全权操盘媒体转播权交易； - 拉利特当时事实上操纵着 BCCI 这个最高权力中枢，使 IPL 拥有天然的制度垄断和抗风险能力。 从体制设计来看，IPL 甚至比 NFL 更加精妙和严密，是全球职业体育中最纯粹的商业机器。 ### [50:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3002s) 板球危局与 T20 革命的黎明 除了拉利特敏锐捕捉到的赛事库存缺口，板球运动本身在这一时期正在孕育一场深刻的规则革命，为 IPL 的诞生提供了完美的时代土壤。在此之前，职业板球只有两种传统形态： 1. **测试赛（Test Cricket）**：长达五天、每天打满全天的绅士运动，球员穿着传统的麻花针织毛衣，讲究耐心与策略； 2. **单日国际赛（One Day Internationals, ODI）**：每场通常持续八小时左右，主要用于国家队之间的锦标赛。 在现代快节奏社会中，这两种漫长的赛制让板球的发源地英格兰陷入了致命的生存危机。英格兰的各大现代化板球场空座率极高，看台上剩下的几乎全是退休老头。女性观众向来对板球缺乏热情，而年轻一代则全面倒向欧洲足球。毕竟在现代社会，除了过去的贵族领主或退休闲人，没有哪个打工人能连续五天不上班去球场看比赛。 为了自救，英格兰和威尔士板球板（ECB）于 2003 年正式把一种原本流行于业余和校园的快节奏玩法引入职业赛场——Twenty20（简称 T20，即 20 轮板球）。与动辄投出成千上万球的五天测试赛截然不同： - T20 对进攻回合做出了严格限定，比赛双方各打 20 轮（Over）； - 每轮包含 6 颗合法投球，即每支球队只有固定的 120 颗投球机会来击球得分； - 这一颠覆性的规则压缩，彻底改变了板球的比赛节奏与收视逻辑。 ### [52:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3142s) T20赛制的颠覆：从漫长的拉锯战到黄金时段的“全民爆米花” 传统的板球赛制曾让许多局外人望而生畏：一场五天制的测试赛（Test Cricket）动辄投球上千次，甚至可能打成平局；即便是单日国际赛（ODI），双方加起来也要打上百个回合（Over），耗费大半天时间。然而，新生的T20（Twenty20）赛制将整场比赛大幅压缩到双方各打20个回合，也就是全场总计240球（每队120球）。作为对比，一场标准的MLB美国职业棒球大联盟比赛平均每场投球约300次（每队约150球）。突然之间，板球从那种又臭又长、看似“无聊版棒球”的刻板印象，彻底转变为比棒球还要紧张刺激的现代娱乐。 在T20中，“投球数”成了极其稀缺的资源。棒球比赛在理论上可以打无限个加时局、投无数个球，但T20的球数是严格封顶的：打者只有有限的击球机会来获取尽可能多的分数。这就使得比赛策略被颠覆，打者不能再像传统测试赛那样耗时间、保平局，而是必须拼命争取击出高分打（如打出边界外的6分球），全场宛如一场火爆的“全垒打大赛”。更重要的是，一场T20比赛被严格控制在两个半到三小时以内——板球历史上第一次能够完美塞进电视黄金时段（Prime Time）。以前普通人若想看完整的ODI比赛，几乎只能选在周六；而现在，无论男女老少、任何社会阶层，每个工作日的晚上都能坐在电视机前享受完整的观赛体验。这项运动终于真正走向了大众。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 板球比赛格式演变与时长对比 accDescr: 对比传统测试赛、单日国际赛和T20在总球数与时长上的变化 subgraph Test["传统测试赛 (Test Cricket)"] T1["耗时长达 5 天"] T2["球数无严格限制 / 追求平局与消耗"] end subgraph ODI["单日赛 (ODI)"] O1["耗时一整天 (约 7-8 小时)"] O2["每队 50 回合 (共 600 球)"] end subgraph T20["T20 赛制 (Twenty20)"] N1["耗时 2.5 - 3 小时 (黄金时段)"] N2["每队 20 回合 (严格限 120 球，全场 240 球)"] N3["球数极其稀缺 -> 策略转为暴力进攻与轰出 6 分"] end Test --> ODI --> T20 ``` - **投球数量对比**：测试赛持续5天；ODI打满双方共600球；T20每队仅120球，全场共240球，甚至少于MLB棒球赛的约300次投球。 - **比赛时长革命**：T20缩短至2.5到3小时，首次实现了每晚黄金时段播出的商业价值。 --- ### [53:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3216s) 传统老顽固的鄙视，反而成了点燃大众狂欢的最佳催化剂 2003至2005年间，T20在英国国内联赛悄然萌芽，年轻一代的注意力被迅速唤回，整个运动呈现出复兴之势。拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）敏锐地捕捉到了这一信号——他此前就一直盘算着在印度成立全国性的职业联赛，而T20的诞生简直就是上天赐予的完美礼物。不仅如此，还有另一份意料之外的“大礼”落到了他们头上：那些钟爱测试赛的保守派“老顽固”（fuddy-duddies）对T20恨之入骨，认为它彻底侮辱了板球这项绅士运动的精髓。 传统精英越是嗤之以鼻，大众和年轻人就越觉得刺激。早期的T20甚至连球员自己都不太当回事，其宣传风格也顺水推舟走向彻底的娱乐化。在一场早期的澳大利亚对阵新西兰的T20比赛中，新西兰球员顶着滑稽怪异的发型出场，穿着随意的队服，场面宛如一场无厘头派对。主持人们打趣道，当时的T20简直就是棒球界“萨凡纳香蕉队”（Savannah Bananas）一般的存在，宛如棒球版哈林环球旅行者（Harlem Globetrotters），主打的就是纯粹的杂耍与奇观。尽管T20骨子里其实蕴含极高的竞技与战术技巧，但老派拥趸的轻视反而赋予了它一种叛逆狂欢的气质。澳大利亚随后创办的“大轰趴联赛”（Big Bash League）更是直白地将“暴力击球”（Bash）作为品牌核心，与追求防守沉闷的传统板球划清界限。 - **连环六分打（Six Sixes）**：在T20这种争分夺秒的快节奏下，打者轰出连续六个6分球的高光时刻，带给观众的视觉冲击堪比棒球全垒打德比（Home Run Derby）。 - **澳洲BBL的崛起**：澳大利亚顺势创办的Big Bash League（大轰趴联赛），如今已成长为仅次于IPL的全球第二大T20板球联赛。 --- ### [56:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3380s) 谋划新蓝图与杀出程咬金：叛军联赛“ICL”的横空突袭 意识到时代风口已经降临，拉利特·莫迪立刻行动。他找到了老搭档——世界体育娱乐巨头IMG（早年莫迪促成ESPN和迪士尼进入印度板球转播时便与IMG结缘）。莫迪以BCCI（印度板球控制委员会）的名义聘请IMG担任战略顾问，IMG印度业务负责人安德鲁·怀尔德布拉德（Andrew Wildblood）成为莫迪最重要的幕后军师，负责操盘新联赛的顶层商业架构与商业计划书。由于BCCI刚刚签下了创纪录的赞助和转播协议，现金流充沛，莫迪团队原本决定从长计议，将联赛正式开打的时间定在2009年，留出两到三年的充裕筹备期。 然而，2007年春天的一记平地惊雷彻底打乱了全盘节奏。就在BCCI眼皮底下，印度居然冒出了一个“叛军联赛”：一家名为印度板球超级联赛（Indian Cricket League，简称ICL）的组织高调宣布成立，同样主打以城市为单位的特许加盟T20球队，且背后站着印度传媒巨头Zee TV。讽刺的是，“Indian Cricket League”这个商标和实体名称，早在上世纪90年代就曾被莫迪本人抢先注册过。事实上，在印度创办职业板球联赛绝非莫迪一人独有的灵感，早在2004年整个行业就已暗流涌动，只是各方都在等待时机成熟。 - **筹备时间线**：莫迪与IMG在2006年底至2007年初开始制定商业计划，原计划在2009年正式推出官方联赛。 - **ICL的横空出世**：2007年春，由Zee TV支持的叛军联赛ICL突然抢跑，计划以城市特许经营权的方式率先落地T20。 --- ### [58:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3500s) 转播权恩怨发酵：苏巴什·钱德拉与BCCI的全面开战 ICL的横空出世，根源在于Zee TV创始人苏巴什·钱德拉（Subhash Chandra）与BCCI之间长达十年的恩怨纠葛。作为印度卫星电视行业的先驱，钱德拉早在1996年就笃定体育赛事是抢占客厅的核心钥匙。从1996年到2004年，他屡次求购板球版权却屡屡碰壁。2004年，钱德拉在印度国内板球转播权的竞标中明明给出了最高报价，却被BCCI以各种理由拒绝授予。直到大约两年后，Zee TV才终于与BCCI签下一份为期5年的独家转播大单。 但好景不长，合同刚执行一年，印度政府便通过了《体育广播法案》（Sports Broadcasting Bill）。该法案强制要求付费商业转播商必须无偿向印度国营电视台（Doordarshan）提供无广告的实时直播信号。这项政策瞬间摧毁了Zee TV的商业变现模型——花了真金白银买下独家版权，却不得不免费交出最核心的资产。当钱德拉试图找BCCI重新谈判转播合同时，莫迪和BCCI高层却对其置之不理、冷处理应对（因为当时BCCI已经在暗中筹划自己的联赛了）。走投无路的钱德拉决定孤注一掷：既然BCCI不肯让步，他索性绕开官方体制，由Zee TV全资设立一个不受BCCI控制的独立独立联盟——ICL。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Zee TV 与 BCCI 的恩怨演变 accDescr: 展现Zee TV从争夺版权受挫到自立门户成立ICL的历程 A["1996-2004: Zee TV 屡次竞标板球转播权无果"] --> B["2004: 出价最高仍遭 BCCI 否决"] B --> C["2006: 终获 5 年独家转播协议"] C --> D["《体育广播法案》出台: 强制向国营台免费提供无广告直播流"] D --> E["Zee TV 变现逻辑破产，要求与 BCCI 重新谈判"] E --> F["BCCI 漠视置之不理 (莫迪暗中筹备 IPL)"] F --> G["2007春: 钱德拉自立门户，高调推出叛军联赛 ICL"] ``` --- ### [01:00:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3644s) 铁腕封杀与招安大赦：BCCI雷霆手段掐灭ICL 面对钱德拉的挑衅，拥有绝对垄断权力的BCCI展现出了极其残酷的统治手段。BCCI第一时间对外下达全球“封杀令”：任何胆敢加盟ICL的球员，将遭到终身禁赛，永远不得代表印度国家队参赛，也禁止参与任何印度国内官方赛事——哪怕是一名连国家队大门都没摸过、极具潜力的年轻后辈，只要签约ICL就将面临职业生涯的彻底断送。 惊慌失措的钱德拉立刻发起舆论战，甚至掏出英超联赛的运营模式作为模板：他承诺设立100万美元的高额奖金池，通过Zee TV向全国转播，吸引全球顶尖国际外援加盟，并宣扬这能拉动各大主办城市的本土经济。然而BCCI完全不予理会，反而将打击手段进一步升级——他们直接取消并扣押了所有签约ICL的退役板球运动员的官方退休金（Pensions）。不仅如此，孟加拉板球协会等地方邦级管理机构也深恐私营资本架空体制，纷纷跟进封杀政策。在体制力量的极限绞杀下，ICL虽然勉强打了2007和2008两个赛季，但核心通道已被完全锁死；2009年，BCCI抛出“特赦令”（Amnesty），承诺只要球员彻底切断与ICL的联系即可重返正规赛场且不予追责。这成为了压垮ICL的最后一根稻草，这个叛军联赛随即在2009年彻底解体倒闭。 - **BCCI的极限惩罚**：宣布参加ICL者终身禁赛，甚至直接剥夺跳槽加盟ICL的退役老将的终身退休金福利。 - **地方协会结盟**：地方板球组织与BCCI结成利益同盟，合力封死ICL在各邦的办赛和选材空间。 - **ICL的终局**：虽率先开打了2007和2008赛季，但在BCCI于2009年宣布“切割即可免罚”的招安特赦后彻底瓦解。 ### [01:02:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3747s) 核心资产卡位：BCCI的垄断与提速启动 IPL 想要绕过既有的国家板球监管机构去单打独斗，在实践中根本行不通。这直接牵扯出商业体育运作中最核心的权力与战略主题——“被垄断的球员资源（Cornered Resource）”。运营或创立体育联盟的生死线在于是否拥有全球最顶尖的运动员；如果无法汇聚顶级球星，整个联赛就会彻底玩完，因为没有任何观众愿意花钱去看二流选手之间的较量。 然而，这是一个双向锁定的闭环。印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）成功将自己塑造成产业链上的绝对枢纽与聚合者（Aggregator）。在贾格莫汉·达尔米亚（Jagmohan Dalmiya）执掌时期，BCCI 完成了两项决定性的权力集中：一是推行球员的中央集权合同，牢牢绑定了印度所有最好的板球选手；二是通过最高法院确权，垄断了全国板球赛事的中央媒体转播权，可以公开向出价最高的资本企业进行拍卖。尽管像 Star 这样的转播商极度渴望绕过 BCCI 去扶持叛军性质的 ICL（印度板球联赛），但转播商终究只能跟着球星走。由于 ICL 缺乏顶尖球员，根本无法形成具备号召力的商业产品。与此同时，BCCI 采取了类似黑手党式的铁腕封杀策略：公开警告任何球员只要敢去 ICL 打球，就会面临终身禁赛，彻底剥夺其代表印度国家队参加国际比赛的资格——在当时，这是板球运动员唯一至高无上的荣誉与生计来源。 面对 ICL 带来的竞争威胁，拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）、安德鲁·怀尔德布拉德（Andrew Wildblood）以及 IMG 团队迅速做出决断：原定于 2009 年推出的 IPL 必须紧急提前，全面加速到 2008 年 4 月的新赛季立即打响。尽管时间极其仓促，令人惊叹的是，整个 IPL 的底层商业架构、竞赛规则和拍卖机制在提前整整一年的情况下，依然展现出了惊人且成熟的平衡性。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: BCCI双重卡位与扼杀ICL逻辑 accDescr: 展示BCCI如何通过垄断核心球员与媒体版权建立双重卡位，最终迫使转播商屈服并提前推出IPL。 subgraph BCCI["BCCI 垄断卡位体系"] A["顶尖球员中央合约<br/>（违者终身禁赛）"] B["中央媒体转播权<br/>（最高法院确认拍卖权）"] end subgraph ICL_Failure["竞争对手 ICL 困境"] C["缺乏一流球星"] D["赛事观赏性低<br/>无法吸引主流受众"] end subgraph Broadcaster["转播市场动向"] E["转播商如 Star 渴望转播"] F["资本只能追逐优质球星"] end A --> C C --> D D --> F B --> E F --> G["IPL 提速至 2008 年 4 月上线"] E --> G ``` --- ### [01:04:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3886s) 意外的转折：2007年首届T20世界杯夺冠奇迹 促使 IPL 提前上马的不仅有竞争逼迫，还有一个天赐的营销神话：印度队在 2007 年夏天的首届 T20 世界杯上不可思议地夺冠了。在此之前，印度板球界对 T20 这种新兴模式非常抗拒，他们更习惯并热爱传统的 50 轮单日国际赛（ODI）。英格兰早在 2003 年就引入了 T20 概念，经过几年发酵后，国际板球理事会（ICC）才终于在 2007 年决定在南非举办第一届男子 T20 世界杯。 当时印度国家队的主力阵容刚刚打完耗时冗长的单日赛世界杯，身心俱疲，包括队内排名前三的超级巨星在内的多名核心球员甚至没有前往南非，老将们纷纷表态“让年轻小将们去新赛事里试试水吧”。因此，这支由无名小卒和年轻后辈组成的队伍在完全不被外界看好的情况下出征，而其他国家大多派出了全主力正规军。谁也没想到，正是这批初生牛犊不怕虎的年轻人，以极具戏剧性的表现一路过关斩将杀入决赛，并在最终的决赛舞台上遭遇了宿敌巴基斯坦。 --- ### [01:06:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=3989s) 一局六球全垒打与保时捷 911 悬赏 在小组赛对阵板球发源地英格兰的比赛中，印度年轻队员们完全处于下风。此时拉利特·莫迪已经飞赴南非观赛，一边督战一边紧锣密鼓地推进 IPL 的提前筹备。嗅到商业公关良机的莫迪在更衣室向全队下达悬赏：只要有人能在一个轮次（Over，共 6 投）中连续击出 6 记“六分球”（Six，相当于棒球中同一打席连打 6 个本垒打），他就自己掏腰包送对方一台保时捷 911。 - **击球难度对比**：板球投球手（Bowler）享有助跑起势，球落地反弹的轨迹极度不可预测，且伴随剧烈的旋转变线，在同一局连续打出 6 次越界绝杀是整个体育史上最罕见的成就之一，历史上仅有不到 20 人达成过。 - **更衣室插曲**：传闻莫迪一开始提议奖赏劳力士手表，但年轻球员们直接回绝表示“这根本不够看”，最后码注被抬高到了对于当时工薪家庭出身的印度年轻人而言遥不可及的顶级豪车保时捷 911。 比赛进入焦灼阶段，年轻击球手尤夫拉吉·辛格（Yuvraj Singh）登场迎战英格兰队。面对英格兰的投球，他第一球轰出六分，接着第二球、第三球、第四球……最终奇迹般地打出了“单轮六连击（6 Sixes in an Over）”。球场瞬间沸腾，看台陷入狂欢。辛格下场后直奔看台上的莫迪，一边激动地摇晃双手一边大喊着讨要车钥匙：“我的保时捷！我的车钥匙呢！”莫迪后来坦言，正是那一刻“彻底点亮了全印度的电视屏幕，将整个国家颠覆了过来”，数以亿计的观众开始疯狂涌入电视直播。 --- ### [01:09:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=4184s) 4亿人狂欢的印巴决战与孟买万人空巷 踏着击败英格兰的气势，印度年轻军团杀进决赛，迎战宿命对手巴基斯坦。在此之前，作为全球最大板球市场的印度在传统 ODI 世界杯上已多年未尝胜绩，国家队成绩持续低迷。然而在这场万众瞩目的较量中，年轻队员们在最后一轮险胜巴基斯坦，将冠军奖杯收入囊中。 这场国家德比创造了不可思议的转播纪录： - **全球收视狂潮**：仅在印度国内，这场决赛的电视观看人数就达到了惊人的 4 亿人，一举成为当年全球观看人数第 10 高的电视转播事件。在印度，只要印巴板球交锋，实质上就等同于全民放假。 - **美式巡游盛宴**：夺冠后，莫迪立刻展现其敏锐的商业包装嗅觉。在全队离开南非前，他直接致电赞助商耐克，要求对方调配数辆双层敞篷观光巴士在清晨接机，将西方超级碗式的冠军巡游庆典完整复制到孟买。 - **11小时的朝圣之路**：早晨 6:00，球队抵达孟买机场时，街头已被 400 万狂热球迷挤得水泄不通。原本很短的机场至体育场车程，巡游大巴在人山人海中艰难挪动了整整 11 个小时。全国所有电视台全程无死角直播这一历史时刻。 这场全民族的狂热庆典，为即将破土而出的 IPL 提供了全世界最完美、最肥沃的商业土壤。就在联赛规则与球队拍卖即将拉开大幕之际，节目短暂切入赞助商 ServiceNow 的宣介——探讨其作为企业 AI 操作系统，如何利用底层关键数据打通 IT、HR、财务和客户服务的全流程自动化。 ### [01:12:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=4330s) 赞助商插播：ServiceNow 与工作流数据编织 本段开始时插入了节目赞助商 ServiceNow 的介绍。节目强调，随着人工智能时代的加速到来，企业拥有连贯统一的数据资产变得至关重要。在过去的 IT 架构中，各个业务部门各自运行独立的软件应用，数据被牢牢锁在彼此孤立的“信息烟囱”之中。当新一代 AI Agent（智能体）试图跨部门、跨业务流调用这些数据时，壁垒重重的现状便成了巨大瓶颈。 ServiceNow 为此推出了工作流数据编织（Workflow Data Fabric），旨在打通并统一全企业范围内分散的数据源，让业务工作流和 AI Agent 能够实时、安全地访问任意底层数据。这种方案的核心价值在于融合结构化数据与非结构化数据：例如，订单管理系统中记录着大客户精准的数值订单，客服系统里堆积着大量的非结构化聊天记录，甚至还有员工在单独的 Excel 表格中私自记录返利细节——正如两位主持人打趣道：“这种事在现实企业里‘绝对不可能’发生对吧？绝不！”但借助这种数据整合能力，AI 能够通盘考量这些碎片信息，快速完成精准的库存预测，从而避免员工在不同应用之间频繁“切屏”重复录入数据。 ### [01:13:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=4415s) 设计顶级体育商业帝国：人类巅峰技艺与竞争均势 随着印度国家板球队刚刚捧起首届 ICC T20 板球世界杯的冠军奖杯，整个国家的板球狂热被推向顶峰，印度超级板球联赛（Indian Premier League，简称 IPL）的诞生时机彻底成熟。Ben 与 David 指出，整期节目此前不断铺垫的核心，正是 IPL 在顶层架构设计上的绝妙商业天才。如果给你一张白纸，让你从零开始设计一个在商业上最成功的体育联赛，你必须最大化两项核心要素，才能让观众欲罢不能： 第一，它必须是全世界展示该项运动人类最高技艺与非凡成就的最佳舞台——换言之，全球顶尖的超级球星必须尽聚于此。第二，也是许多体育联盟最容易走入歧途的一点：比赛结果必须具备极高的“不确定性”，也就是联盟各支球队之间必须保持激烈的竞争均势（Competitive Parity）。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 顶尖体育联赛商业模式的核心支柱 accDescr: 解释如何通过顶尖球员技能与赛果不确定性平衡构建最具商业价值的体育联盟 subgraph Core["两大核心支柱"] A["汇聚全球顶尖球星<br/>（展示人类最高竞技水准）"] B["维持强烈的赛果不确定性<br/>（球队间的竞争均势 Parity）"] end subgraph Balance["精细化竞技设计"] C["保持纯粹竞技技巧<br/>（非杂耍娱乐/非纯随机）"] D["制度性防止王朝垄断<br/>（兼顾球迷忠诚度与悬念）"] end subgraph Outcome["终极商业成果"] E["极致的观赏性与商业价值<br/>（如 NFL 的 Any Given Sunday）"] end A --> Balance B --> Balance Balance --> Outcome ``` 这正是 NFL（美国国家橄榄球联盟）能够成为全球最值钱体育资产的王牌秘诀，即所谓的“任何一个周日都可能爆冷”（Any Given Sunday）。NFL 每年都在细微调整规则与机制，其最高管理层甚至恨不得所有球队的常规赛战绩都是 8 胜 8 负，把终极悬念全部留到生死未卜的季后赛。主持人调侃道，堪萨斯城酋长队差点实现超级碗三连冠，对追求极致均势的联盟管理者而言甚至算得上是一场“小灾难”。 Ben 特别澄清：“设计的首要目标不是打造一个‘最纯粹的体育联赛’，而是打造一个‘最赚钱的商业机器’。”David 完全赞同，体育商业化最成功的形态，就是让它成为兼具技巧与不可预测性的最精彩娱乐产品。但这绝不意味着堕落为单纯制造噱头与争议的马戏团杂耍——像哈林环球旅行者篮球队（Harlem Globetrotters）或萨凡纳香蕉棒球队（Savannah Bananas）虽然也是出色的娱乐生意，但永远不可能成为该项运动的主流巅峰。联赛必须是一场高超技巧之间的硬碰硬，在排除纯粹运气与随机性的同时，以最平衡的游戏规则呈现扣人心弦的对抗。 ### [01:16:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=4566s) 规避欧洲足坛与 MLB 的陷阱：从零构建公平体系 对于 IPL 而言，由于印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）对本国市场和顶尖资源的绝对掌控，集结世界顶级板球球星的第一步其实相对简单。BCCI 坐拥海量资金、数以亿计只看印度本土球星的疯狂粉丝，并且手握绝对否决权，严禁任何印度顶尖球员去境外其他联赛淘金。因此，只要 IPL 是由 BCCI 亲手创办，人才垄断便是天然的护城河；反之，若由任何第三方发起，这一步就会沦为空谈。 真正的巨大挑战在于第二点——如何建立长期的竞争均势。在体育史上，太多联盟在这里栽了大跟头： - 为了在赛场上实现均势，每一支俱乐部无论身处多大或多小的地域市场、无论老板幕后拥有的资本多么雄厚、无论上个赛季战绩如何，都必须享有平等的获胜机会。 - 不能让弱队永远没有翻身之日，但也必须维持一定的阵容稳定性以沉淀球迷忠诚，同时竭力阻止独霸天下的长期王朝出现。 David 和 Ben 举出了两个典型的反面教材。首先是美国的 MLB（美国职业棒球大联盟）：由于历史上始终未能成功推行强有力的硬工资帽制度，导致纽约扬基队和洛杉矶道奇队等超大球市豪门长期垄断顶级战力，世界大赛常年成为少数几家金元帝国的舞台。更恶劣的例子则是欧洲足球联赛：联赛金字塔尖永远是那两到五家投入最疯狂的超级豪门，富豪老板们为了争夺冠军不惜烧掉数以亿计的美元，甚至长期让俱乐部在巨额赤字下失血运转，陷入恶性军备竞赛。 ### [01:18:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=4689s) 制度创新：禁止负债、零球场负担与中央集权转播模式 回到 21 世纪中叶的印度社会背景，当时的经济虽已起步，但社会财富分化极其悬殊——一端是像信实工业安巴尼家族（Ambani family）、塔塔集团（Tata）这样坐拥天文数字财富的顶级工业寡头，另一端则是其他拥有社会声望但财力远无法与之匹敌的潜在投资者。如果放任资本自由博弈，联赛必然迅速沦为两三个超级富豪的玩具。为了吸引多元化的投资人入局竞标最初的八支创始球队，联赛的设计者——拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）、IMG 的安德鲁·怀尔德布拉德（Andrew Wildblood）等人——必须将球队打造成确定性极高、严格限制下行风险（capped downside）的优质商业资产。 为此，IPL 确立了两大核心商业底线： 1. **绝对禁止负债与自建球场**：欧洲足球俱乐部深陷亏损的一个致命主因，往往是背负数亿甚至数十亿美元的巨额债务去修建和拥有球场，沉重的球场还贷利息直接压垮了俱乐部的现金流。IPL 大笔一挥规定：任何球队不得背负债务，并且事实上严禁球队自持球场。这一难题在印度迎刃而解——印度各大核心城市早已建有规模宏大的现成板球场，而这些球场全部归属于各邦板球协会，且均在 BCCI 的统一管辖之下。 2. **中央集权式的版权与赞助分配机制**：在媒体版权与赞助收入的变现路径上，IPL 毫不犹豫地抛弃了 MLB 式由各支球队自行与地方电视台谈判的碎片化模式，全面拥抱 NFL 式的中央集权模式。所有电视转播权和联赛核心赞助均由联盟中央统一谈判打包出售，随后将所得收入在各支参赛球队之间进行均等分配。 这一决策对 BCCI 和拉利特·莫迪而言可谓驾轻就熟。在此之前，莫迪刚刚主导操盘了印度国家队国际板球赛事版权的破纪录大单（卖出了 6.12 亿至 6.2 亿美元的高价），早已验证了中央版权模式在商业上的惊人爆发力。通过彻底剥离球场建设包袱、锁定电视转播分成、筑牢财务下行安全网，IPL 在尚未打响第一场比赛之前，便在图纸上完成了一场体育商业史上的制度颠覆。 ### [01:21:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=4887s) 成功的陷阱：广告市场的流动性被吸干 拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）和国际管理集团（IMG）在筹划如何最大化印度板球超级联赛（IPL）的电视版权价值时，遇到了一个由自身巨大成功所带来的严重难题。在此之前，他们刚刚以 6.2 亿美元的天价卖出了印度板球国家队（BCCI）未来四年的双边国际赛事转播权。虽然各大电视台依然对 IPL 的转播权垂涎三尺，但电视台背后的最终买单方——那些投放商业广告的快消与消费电子品牌——其预算池已经被彻底抽干了。 主播指出了一项直至研究后期才注意到的惊人背景事实：2008 年印度的整个广告市场规模极小，全国全渠道（甚至还没有形成规模化的数字和移动广告）的总可寻址广告市场（TAM）一年仅在 20 亿到 30 亿美元左右。而国家队 6.2 亿美元的版权合同平摊下来每年需要约 1.5 亿美元。这意味着，转播商仅仅为了在这笔投资上保本，每年就必须在板球转播中吞下全印度整个广告市场 5% 的份额；如果要实现盈利，这一比例甚至要达到 10%（涵盖百事可乐、电信运营商、汽车公司等所有大客户）。广告主口袋里的传统预算已被搜刮殆尽，莫迪和 IMG 创立 IPL，根本不可能指望原班人马再掏出一大笔钱。 拉利特·莫迪在接受播客采访时，用他独有的张扬与直白总结了当时的困境： > “作为印度所有体育赛事的大哥大，凭借 BCCI 与其他国家举行的双边国际赛事，市场上所有品牌能够调动的赞助预算已经被彻底消耗光了，根本没有多余的预算。我们通过把 BCCI 的整体版权价格从区区几百万美元推高到十亿美元，抽干了市场上所有的流动资金。因此，当我思考我们究竟去哪里找钱才能让 IPL 运转起来时，我意识到：我需要女人和孩子。” 这一洞察虽然听起来“近乎魔头般的冷血”，但其商业逻辑却无比精准与致命。 --- ### [01:24:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=5090s) 联赛平衡与全新受众的战略构想 从体育联盟的商业架构来看，IPL 必须效仿美国国家橄榄球联盟（NFL）。一个健康的封闭式特许经营联赛，必须依靠庞大的中央集权式收入流（即全联盟统一谈判的电视转播权和核心赞助合同）来支撑所有球队的生计，这是维持联赛竞争均势（Competitive Parity）的唯一法宝。如果允许像达拉斯牛仔（Dallas Cowboys）或旧金山49人（San Francisco 49ers）这样的豪门过度依赖地方性商业收入，球队间的贫富差距就会迅速撕裂联赛平衡。尽管 IPL 也会引入工资帽（Salary Cap），但核心收入池必须足够庞大。 面对“旧钱已被吸干”的死局，莫迪与 IMG 展现出惊人的商业嗅觉：如果现有板球观众的广告价值已经见顶，那就必须将 IPL 彻底重塑为一个完全不同的娱乐产品，瞄准完全不同的受众——女性，从而吸引专门向女性营销的全新广告主群体。 IMG 负责该项目、与莫迪并肩作战的安德鲁·怀尔德布拉德（Andrew Wildblood）在一篇访谈中清晰勾勒了这一创想： > “我们在打造 IPL 时有几个指导原则。第一，它必须体现现代印度的特征：充满活力、绚丽多彩、人声鼎沸、令人血脉贲张；第二，它绝不能与其他形式的板球竞争，而必须与其他形态的娱乐产品竞争——也就是晚间黄金档节目。当时的印度不仅缺乏体育内容供给，实际上除了宝莱坞（Bollywood）之外，全社会的通用娱乐内容也极其匮乏。我和拉利特达成共识：我们不想和板球争，我们要和黄金档肥皂剧竞争。因此，我们必须按照肥皂剧的模子来打造 IPL，让你如果昨晚没看，第二天早上一到办公室饮水机旁就插不上话。当时印度的绝大多数家庭都只有一台电视机，晚上拿着遥控器换台的是家里的女主人，男人们几乎没有发言权。要想做成一台成功的电视节目，我们必须做出女人喜欢看的东西。而这，正是我们把宝莱坞拉进股东阵营的根本原因。” 这种彻底打破体育边界的打法在全世界体育联赛中绝无仅有。时至今日，IPL 的男女观众比例达到了惊人的 50/50 绝对对等。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL打破广告瓶颈的商业破局逻辑 accDescr: 展示IPL如何从面临传统广告被吸干的危机，转型为对标肥皂剧并引入宝莱坞以吸引女性受众的链条。 subgraph Crisis["传统板球广告枯竭"] A["BCCI 双边国家队赛事<br/>4年6.2亿美元售出"] --> B["吞噬全印广告市场 5%-10% 预算"] B --> C["传统男性品牌（饮料、汽车、电信）预算见底"] end subgraph Strategy["IPL 娱乐化破局"] D["重新定义竞争对手：<br/>对标晚间黄金档肥皂剧"] --> E["目标争夺受众：<br/>掌控单台电视遥控器的女性"] E --> F["解锁全新广告主品类<br/>（日化、美妆、母婴等消费品牌）"] end subgraph Execution["核心抓手"] G["引入宝莱坞顶级巨星入股"] --> D end Crisis --> Strategy ``` --- ### [01:27:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=5261s) 锁定沙鲁克·汗：空手套白狼的超级操盘 在印度文化版图中，宝莱坞与板球是无可争议的双子塔，没有任何第三者可以望其项背。而在宝莱坞的银幕上，有一位巨星的声望凌驾于所有人之上——沙鲁克·汗（Shah Rukh Khan）。拉贾斯坦皇家队（Rajasthan Royals）的主要拥有者马诺吉·巴达勒（Manoj Badale）曾写道：在宝莱坞内部，明星可以分为 B 咖、A 咖、双 A 咖，而沙鲁克·汗则孤独地悬浮于所有等级之上，他的财富与知名度甚至超越汤姆·克鲁斯（Tom Cruise）或克林特·伊斯特伍德（Clint Eastwood），受全印度数十亿人的顶礼膜拜。 幸运的是，拉利特·莫迪与沙鲁克·汗从小就相识；但不幸的是，这位国民偶像骨子里根本不是板球迷，而是一个狂热的足球迷。后来沙鲁克·汗在接受大卫·莱特曼（David Letterman）采访时开玩笑说“自己板球打得不够好，所以只能买支球队来圆童年梦想”，但这完全是成名后倒推的修饰辞（Retcon），事实远非如此。 当莫迪找到沙鲁克·汗力邀其拥有一支球队时，沙鲁克·汗一开始是坚决抗拒的：“拉利特，我完全不懂怎么搞这个。我的热情全在足球上，我根本不知道怎么运营一支板球队。”莫迪当即给出了黑帮大佬般的霸气承诺：“让我来搞定。我会替你组建一个财团，你只需要负责签支票。”沙鲁克·汗震惊地说：“你这是要拿走我一辈子的积蓄！”（在当时那确实是他全部的家当）。莫迪回答：“先签支票，等你在竞标拍卖中真的拿下球队，我们再聊细节。” 莫迪随后展现出他神乎其技的资源整合术。正值 2007 年，那是智能手机普及前夕、功能机统治印度的时代，手机巨头诺基亚（Nokia）极度渴望签下沙鲁克·汗担任其印度区的品牌代言人，但沙鲁克·汗此前由于种种原因一直拒绝接洽。莫迪稳住沙鲁克·汗拿到口头授权后，一转身便直接走进诺基亚的高管办公室，摊开筹码：“我知道你们做梦都想签下沙鲁克·汗。他不会接你们的个人代言，但是，你们可以成为他即将在全新板球联赛中拥有的球队的球衣冠名赞助商——而这项联赛，将成为全世界有史以来最伟大的板球超级盛宴。” - **印度广告大盘背景**：2008 年印度总广告市场规模仅约 20 亿至 30 亿美元，且当时几乎没有数字广告与移动互联网生态。 - **BCCI 国际版权体量**：四年 6.2 亿美元，平均每年约 1.5 亿美元，直接占掉全国广告大盘的 5% 以上。 - **观众画像重构**：IPL 放弃同类体育竞争，通过对标肥皂剧和借力宝莱坞，达成了各占 50% 的男女观众性别平衡。 - **入局关键人物**：沙鲁克·汗以全副身家跟进莫迪组建的财团；莫迪随后将诺基亚对沙鲁克·汗的代言需求转化为球队的球衣胸前赞助。 ### [01:31:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=5476s) 凭空造局：拉拢沙鲁克·汗与诺基亚的“零成本入局”神操作 在 IPL 的创办过程中，最令人拍案叫绝的一幕是拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）如何用“先有蛋还是先有鸡”的商业魔术，将印度宝莱坞天王沙鲁克·汗（Shah Rukh Khan）拉入局。当时甚至连球队拍卖会都还没举行，联赛更是一场球都没打过，莫迪却敢对赞助商打包票说“这一定会是他的球队”。莫迪向诺基亚（Nokia）推销了一个极具诱惑力的画面：只要沙鲁克·汗拥有这支新球队，他就会亲自现身看台，站在球场中央，为主队唱歌、跳舞，甚至录制联赛的主题音乐 MV；电视镜头将每分每秒追踪着他，而他的胸前将赫然印着巨大的诺基亚标志——这一切特权，每年只要预付 500 万美元现金。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Lalit Modi's Zero-Cost Structure for Shah Rukh Khan accDescr: Diagram showing how Lalit Modi offset Shah Rukh Khan's franchise auction payment with Nokia sponsorship upfront. subgraph DealStructure["拉利特·莫迪的精巧交易架构"] A["IPL 球队特许经营拍卖<br/>（底价 5000 万美元，分 10 年支付）"] -->|第一年仅需支付| B["首年资本金：500 万美元"] C["诺基亚单队球衣赞助<br/>（买断沙鲁克·汗胸前广告）"] -->|首年预付现金| D["赞助收入：500 万美元"] end B <-->|完全对冲盈亏平衡| D D --> E["沙鲁克·汗零现金风险拥有球队<br/>入局第一天即实现盈利"] ``` 与此同时，莫迪回到沙鲁克·汗面前，亮出了极其精妙的交易结构。他将特许经营权拍卖的底价设为 5000 万美元，但允许分 10 年分期付款；无论最终叫价多高，首年需缴纳的资金都严格限制在 500 万美元左右。紧接着莫迪告诉沙鲁克：“首付款是 500 万美元，而我已经帮你找到了出资 500 万美元的诺基亚球衣赞助——你第一天就能收支平衡，甚至直接实现账面盈利。”面对这种“白送一支顶级板球队”且毫无财务下行风险的提议，沙鲁克·汗当即表示“这是一笔无法拒绝的邀约”。2008 年 1 月的拍卖现场印证了这一神话：沙鲁克·汗于中午 12 点正式竞得加尔各答骑士队（Kolkata Knight Riders），下午 3 点便与诺基亚签署了首年 500 万美元的球衣赞助协议。 - **单队胸前球衣赞助天价**：一支尚不存在的虚构球队，单年球衣广告卖出 500 万美元真金白银现金，彻底刷新了印度体育赞助的市场定价。 - **资本催缴设计（Capital Calls）**：将 5000 万至 1 亿美元的巨额标价拉长至 10 年摊还，极大降低了投资人的实际现金流门槛与入局风险。 --- ### [01:34:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=5682s) 宝莱坞军团杀入：顶级巨星成为赛场核心资产 当沙鲁克·汗携诺基亚巨额赞助入局的消息传开后，整个印度的商业与娱乐界格局瞬间被引爆。沙鲁克·汗是印度娱乐工业无可争议的领头羊，他的魅力在脱口秀等国际舞台上向来“游刃有余、宛如黄油般顺滑”（"like butter"）。他的加入迅速引发了群聚效应，宝莱坞圈内顶级资源蜂拥而至。紧随其后，宝莱坞超一线顶级女星普丽缇·泽塔（Preity Zinta）也直接以主要老板身份竞拍拿下一支球队（旁遮普国王队前身）。 拉利特·莫迪敏锐地指出，宝莱坞几乎占据了印度泛娱乐注意力的 90%。当沙鲁克·汗和普丽缇·泽塔成为球队老板后，整个娱乐圈的生态链——娱乐记者、随行团队、明星化妆师、合作品牌与代言商——全都涌入了板球赛场。过去，普通印度民众只能在电影银幕上遥望这些天王巨星，而现在，只需买一张球票或打开电视，就能每晚在看台上看到他们鲜活、热烈的真实状态。超级巨星从“银幕神坛”走入“体育竞技现场”，彻底改变了体育赛事的传播性质，让看球赛演变为一场全民追星的文化狂欢。 - **超一线巨星的老板身份**：不同于一般的形象代言，普丽缇·泽塔等人是真金白银的特许经营权所有者，必须亲临看台为球队助威，天然绑定了全部镜头焦点。 - **明星效应的破圈引流**：影视明星的长期现身，直接打破了传统板球以男性核心球迷为主的单一壁垒，将庞大的女性观众与娱乐受众整体平移至体育频道。 --- ### [01:36:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=5808s) 黄金档正面对决肥皂剧：打造每晚两小时的“超级碗” 在向各大电视网络竞标媒体版权时，莫迪与 IMG 拿出了整个产品设计中最具杀伤力、堪称“神来之笔”（pièce de résistance）的核心排期方案：连续两个月内，每周七天、每天晚上 8 点准时开赛一场比赛，比赛时长严格控制在三小时左右（晚上 8:00 到 11:00）。这一排期并非偶然避让，而是直接迎头痛击在印度收视率统治多年的黄金档肥皂剧。 莫迪的策略极具颠覆性：宝莱坞超一线电影巨星向来对小屏幕肥皂剧不屑一顾，绝不可能参演电视剧；但现在，IPL 把这些最顶尖的影星“关”在了球场看台上，任由摄像机实时捕捉他们的一颦一笑——这本身就构成了全国阵容最奢华、剧情最不可预测的“超级肥皂剧”。对于男性观众而言，这里汇聚了全球水平最高的板球职业对抗；对于女性及家庭观众而言，看台上的巨星真人秀与时尚穿着同样看点十足。这相当于在美国，不仅让泰勒·斯威夫特（Taylor Swift）买下堪萨斯城酋长队并全程坐在包厢，更是将全美瞩目的“超级碗”或“奥斯卡颁奖礼”变成了连续两个月、夜夜上演的家庭收视风暴。 - **每日独占排期**：每晚仅进行一场比赛，黄金时间晚上 8:00 直通 11:00，避免场次分流，打造如同 NFL“周一橄榄球之夜（Monday Night Football）”般的收视仪式感。 - **全家收视（Family Viewing）**：男士看最高水平竞技，女士看宝莱坞巨星生态，一举打破了印度家庭晚上争夺遥控器的僵局，形成统治级收视率。 --- ### [01:39:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=5959s) 竞标前夕的三大支柱与隐忧浮现 行至 2008 年 1 月，IPL 联盟初期的三大竞争平衡支柱已然稳固成型： 1. **轻资产模式（Asset-light Model）**：球队不承担自建或拥有体育场的重资产重负与债务包袱，仅租赁场地运营； 2. **多元化老板生态（Diverse Ownership Group）**：引入以宝莱坞和顶级财团为代表的多元资方，既防止外部单一资本恶性抬价垄断，更借宝莱坞之手彻底撬锁了全国媒介广告预算； 3. **中央媒体版权收益平分（Central Broadcasting Rights Pool）**：通过建立庞大的中央电视转播权资金池，并将巨额收益均分给各支参赛球队。 万事俱备，莫迪与 IMG 信心百倍地准备将这份开天辟地的 IPL 媒体转播权推向市场，进行公开竞价拍卖。然而，按照 IPL 跌宕起伏的历史剧本，在最关键的临门一脚时刻，意料之中的重大麻烦再次浮现：此前斥资 6.2 亿美元从印度板球控局委员会（BCCI）手中买断了印度国家队国际板球赛事版权的巨头 Nimbus，此时成为了横亘在莫迪面前的一头凶猛拦路虎。 ### [01:40:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6022s) 阴阳合同之争：Nimbus 出局与拉利特·莫迪的印度商业法则 在筹备 IPL 转播权拍卖时，之前拿下印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）全部转播权的中介商 Nimbus 率先发难。Nimbus 愤怒地质问：“等等，我们才刚签了合同，花了大约 6.2 亿美元买下未来四五年的 BCCI 全部赛事权益。IPL 明明是 BCCI 的产品，转播权理所当然归我们所有！”在常规的商业逻辑看来，Nimbus 的诉求完全合情合理。然而拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）的回答却极其冷酷而强硬：“不，合同里可没有明确写上 IPL。如果你想告我，尽管去告吧，祝你好运。”合同里确实没写这项尚未诞生的新联赛，莫迪便抓住法律字面的空子，坚称这完全是另一款全新独立的产品。 在莫迪的哲学里，商业世界奉行的是“我让大家都赚到了钱”的实用主义。Nimbus 此前不过是一家没有重要体育转播权的中游公司，是靠莫迪运作的 BCCI 交易一跃成为坐拥顶级版权的行业巨头，不仅赚得盆满钵满，也尝到了甜头。莫迪认为，这就是当时印度商业的运转规则——你情我愿、各取所需、雷厉风行。如果从英美成熟商业社会的契约精神来看，这种做法显然违背了诚信原则（Good Faith）：明知要启动重磅赛事却刻意钻合同文字空子，将对方蒙在鼓里。然而对莫迪而言，法律文本的边缘地带正是他施展拳脚的舞台，他毫不犹豫地将 Nimbus 踢出了局。 - **Nimbus 现有合同金额**：约 6.2 亿美元，买断 BCCI 旗下四至五年的所有赛事转播权益。 - **莫迪的核心抗辩**：合同条款从未明确提及 IPL，因此不属于既有转播权范畴；若有异议，法庭见。 --- ### [01:42:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6121s) 封杀默多克与迪士尼的流媒体算盘 解决掉 Nimbus 后，IPL 庞大的转播权重回货架。但在竞标名单上，国际传媒巨头星空传媒（Star TV）却连门都进不来。莫迪从不奉行“既往不咎”的宽容原则，十年前双方结下的梁子让他记仇至今。正如莫迪后来在回忆转播权竞标时那句令人惊叹的名言：“鲁伯特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）早就被我拉进黑名单了。鉴于当年发生的事，我绝不可能允许他入场。所以我封杀了鲁伯特·默多克。”即便十载已过，默多克的新闻集团依然被牢牢挡在门外。 此时，ESPN 与迪士尼总部表达了独立于 Star 合资公司之外单独投标的强烈意向。他们敏锐地察觉到了 IPL 的巨大潜力，但迪士尼作为保守的跨国巨头，始终无法鼓起勇气直接开出巨额现金支票。迪士尼提出折中方案：“我们愿意通过流媒体网络 OTT 平台进行全网转播（即日后的 Disney+），但只能采用广告分成模式（Rev-share），不能提前支付保底现金。” 莫迪果断拒绝了迪士尼。他的整个联赛商业模型建立在“确定性”之上：球队特许经营权的竞标底价高达几千万甚至上亿美元，如果中央没有确定的媒体赞助保底资金，任何精明的投资人都不可能冒着血本无归的风险砸下 8,000 万美元来买一支球队。莫迪急需的是白纸黑字、真金白银的巨额现金担保，分成协议对他毫无用处。 --- ### [01:43:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6199s) 索尼入局：初创联赛的十亿美元难题 面对僵局，莫迪再次翻开了自己百试不爽的杀手锏策略：寻找一家有野心、综合实力雄厚但唯独缺少体育频道的巨头。这一次的目标是印度排名第二的广播巨头索尼（Sony）。莫迪找到索尼，给出了极具蛊惑力的承诺：“我会为你们凭空打造一个体育频道。而且听着，这绝不仅是普通的板球比赛，这是体育加宝莱坞，是印度乃至全世界有史以来最伟大的娱乐产品！” 莫迪开出的标价十分惊人：10 年期转播合同，底价 6 亿美元，但他明确预期最终成交价必须达到 10 亿美元。这个数字将直接与 Nimbus 前一年购买的印度国家队版权并驾齐驱。索尼看懂了其中的超级商业愿景，但对 10 年期的长期捆绑充满恐惧。此时的 IPL 完完全全是一家“初创公司”： - 赛场上甚至“一球未投”（not a ball has been bowled）； - 没有任何一支球队正式成立； - 没有任何一个财团公开中标拥有球队； - 全球范围内，英格兰、澳大利亚、新西兰的国内板球俱乐部联赛从来都只是边缘的次级联赛（Minor Leagues），商业价值微不足道，从未有任何国内联赛能支撑起每年 1 亿美元的天价转播权。 索尼因此打起了退堂鼓，提出保守方案：“我们愿意按 10 年 6 亿美元底价的折算年费，仅试水购买第一年的转播权，先支付 6,000 万美元现金。”然而，6,000 万美元的单年试水对莫迪来说远远不够。莫迪要用一份长达 10 年的保底合同来稳住大局——因为球队买家的特许经营权费用恰好也是分 10 年支付，只有转播权锁定 10 年，整座资金多米诺骨牌才立得住。 --- ### [01:45:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6301s) 空手套白狼：新加坡 WSG 与三方转播权结构 面对索尼的退缩，莫迪联手 IMG 展现了一场叹为观止的商业财技。他们借鉴了之前撮合沙鲁克·汗与诺基亚的赞助模式，引入了一家总部位于新加坡的体育版权机构——世界体育集团（World Sport Group, WSG）。 莫迪对 WSG 开出了一个精巧的局：由 WSG 充当门面买家，以 10 亿美元的总价签下 IPL 涵盖全球的 10 年期独家转播大单；但在付款节奏上，第一年 WSG 仅需向联盟支付 6,000 万美元，剩余的 9.4 亿美元延后在未来 9 年内分期偿还。与此同时，WSG 转身立即将 IPL 的“印度本土转播权”转包给索尼，而索尼恰好愿为第一年支付这 6,000 万美元现金。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL 10亿美元转播权三方交易架构 accDescr: 展示BCCI与拉利特·莫迪、世界体育集团WSG以及索尼之间权利与资金的流转闭环 subgraph Core ["交易核心安排"] Modi["拉利特·莫迪 / BCCI"] WSG["世界体育集团 (WSG)"] Sony["索尼 (Sony)"] end Modi -- "1. 签约10年全球转播权<br/>（总额10亿美元，首年仅收6000万）" --> WSG WSG -- "2. 分许可：印度本土转播权" --> Sony Sony -- "3. 首年即时现金支付 6000万美元" --> WSG WSG -- "4. 现金背靠背全额转付 6000万美元" --> Modi WSG -. "获利报酬：全球海外转播权销售收益<br/>（潜在风险：第2-10年9.4亿美元负债）".- WSG ``` 在这套背靠背的安排中，WSG 在第一年实现了“现金中性”（Cash-neutral）：左手从索尼拿到 6,000 万美元，右手付给 BCCI，自己分文不出，同时还免费拿下了 IPL 在除印度以外全球其余地区的国际转播权，海外赚到的每一分钱都是净利润（Vig）。但这种架构的致命风险在于：如果第一年办砸了，WSG 将在第 2 至 10 年背负高达 9.4 亿美元的惊人债务。 --- ### [01:46:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6413s) 无风险交易幻象与莫迪的“绅士协议” 面对 WSG 对近 10 亿美元天价债务的恐惧，莫迪祭出了他最擅长的攻心术。莫迪坚信“只要电视转播协议一签，其余一切都会迎刃而解”。他手里握着沙鲁克·汗的承诺，锁定了顶级球员，包下了全国球场，唯一的胜负手就是转播权的大旗。 莫迪对转播商直截了当地许诺：“虽然纸面协议是 10 亿美元，但我第一年只需要 6,000 万。我们先把第一年做成，以后的事以后再说。我向你们保证，如果第一年我们没有达到预期的轰动效果，我绝不会把 IPL 办到第二年，我会直接拔掉电源、终止联赛。” 这实际上是一份基于个人信任的“绅士协议”：只要 WSG 相信莫迪在 IPL 失败时会履约解约，WSG 就等于白白获得了一份第一年海外版权的“免费看涨期权”（Free Option），完全处于“零下行风险、无限上行回报”的状态。播客主持人感叹，从纯粹的商业理论来看，“交易本身能够创造价值”。莫迪在这里并非单纯撮合交易，而是在无中生有地架构一种“零风险交易”的幻象，通过精巧的利益绑定让所有参与方都觉得自己稳赚不赔。然而，这一切建立在一个巨大的前提之上——WSG 必须全心信任莫迪的人品与信誉，拿未来 10 年的身家性命去赌莫迪的一句口头承诺。历史证明，莫迪许诺的繁荣确实降临了，但未来兑现的方式，却绝非如最初承诺那般平静。 - **首年转播资金流**：索尼支付 6,000 万美元 $\to$ WSG 过手 $\to$ BCCI/IPL 入账 6,000 万美元。 - **10 年纸面价值**：成功打出“10 年 10 亿美元”的轰动性头条，为即将开始的球队竞拍注入巨大信心。 - **核心承保承诺**：若首季失败，莫迪承诺直接取消联赛，免除 WSG 后续 9.4 亿美元债务责任。 ### [01:49:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6590s) 10 亿美元转播权引爆板球界：球队拍卖的前奏 BCCI 宣布与 WSG（World Sport Group）和索尼达成创纪录的 10 亿美元转播权交易，犹如一场超级大地震撼动了整个板球界。在此之前，全球没有任何一项本土板球联赛的转播权能够达到这种估值水平。更为不可思议的是，此时的 IPL 甚至连一支球队都还没有成立，也没有任何球队老板入驻——整套体系不过还停留在商业计划书的图纸上。 在这股空前的市场势头推动下，仅仅过了 10 天，也就是 2008 年 1 月底，IPL 正式启动了最初 8 支特许经营权（Franchise）的竞标拍卖。联盟为每个所有权财团设定的最低保留底价是 5000 万美元。既然巨额的电视转播资金已经尘埃落定，潜在买家最为关心的核心问题自然浮出水面：如果自己掏出 5000 万美元甚至更多去买下一支球队，究竟能从中分走多少转播蛋糕？ ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL 初创期收益分配与回收模型 accDescr: 描绘转播签约后 IPL 球队如何凭借时间杠杆在第 1 年通过分成完全抵消加盟费 subgraph CentralPool["IPL 联盟中央收入池 (Year 1)"] TV["WSG / 索尼电视转播: $60M"] Sponsor["中央赞助收益"] TotalRev["第一年按 80% 分成给球队"] end subgraph Distribution["分配至 8 支球队"] PerTeamShare["每队获得总额的 10% (至少 $5M 转播净现金)"] SponsorUpside["赞助到位后攀升至 $10M / 队"] end subgraph TeamCost["球队支出结构"] FeePayable["加盟费分 10 年付清: 每年 $5M"] ZeroRisk["净现金流平衡/盈利 (首年免费得球队)"] end TV --> TotalRev Sponsor --> TotalRev TotalRev --> PerTeamShare PerTeamShare --> SponsorUpside PerTeamShare -.->|抵扣| FeePayable FeePayable --> ZeroRisk ``` --- ### [01:51:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6666s) 操纵时间的艺术：零成本入局的轻资产商业闭环 在发给所有竞标者的招股书（Prospectus）中，拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）展现了他操控交易时间轴的非凡天才。通常在稳定成熟期，来自 WSG/索尼的转播权收入以及联盟中央赞助收益的 50% 会平分给 8 支球队。但莫迪给出了一个令人无法抗拒的“杀手锏”（kicker）：在联赛运营的第一年，这一分成比例高达 80%。 由于正好有 8 支球队，意味着第一年流入 IPL 联盟中央的每 10 美元中，就有 8 美元拿出来分，折合每支球队独享全联盟中央总收益的 10%。在接下来的 10 年里，这一比例将逐年滑梯式递减至 50%。 这背后的商业算盘妙不可言： - 第一年电视转播合同带来的真金白银现金为 6000 万美元，每支球队直接进账约 5000 万 / 8 ≈ 500 万美元纯转播现金分成。 - 莫迪在吸引沙·鲁克·罕（Shah Rukh Khan）等巨头时承诺：5000 万美元加盟费可以分 10 年分期付清，第一年实际只需支付 500 万美元。 - 算式一闭环，买家在第一年获得的中央电视转播分成恰好是 500 万美元，完全覆盖了首期加盟费支出——相当于第一年“免费领到了一支顶级板球队”。 - 随着后续全联盟中央赞助的顺利敲定，每支球队从中央收入池中拿到的分配额更是迅速飙升至 1000 万美元。 - 此外，IPL 采用彻底的轻资产（Asset-light）模式，投资方不用自建球场，资产负债表上没有任何沉重的固定资产和基建债务，几乎刚起步就能实现盈亏平衡甚至盈利。 --- ### [01:53:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6780s) 破局传统薪资模型：独创的“球员公开拍卖” 对于专业的体育投资人来说，摸清收入分成后的第一反应必然是关注支出底线：“联盟的工资帽（Salary Cap）是多少？球员成本会是多少？” 在大部分职业联赛中，工资帽基本就等同于损益表（P&L）上的球员支出。但在 IPL，情况却截然不同。许多球队甚至不需要用满工资帽，仅花费帽额的 75%、80% 或 90%，就足以组建起一支极具竞争力的冠军级别阵容。 之所以会产生这种奇观，是因为 IPL 带来了全球职业体育史上一项绝无仅有的颠覆性创新——**球员公开拍卖系统**（Auction System）。在 IPL，球员并不是通过传统的选秀或闭门自由人谈判敲定去向，而是被带到像苏富比（Sotheby's）或佳士得那样的现场拍卖槌下，像顶级艺术品（甚至被当时部分刻薄的媒体戏称为“像牲口和羊群一般”）逐一叫价竞逐。 Ben 和 David 将其生动概括为：“这就像是把北美职业联盟的选秀大会（Draft）直接换成带上白花花银子的现场抢拍”，既是收视率拉满的公开秀场，也是维系整个联赛长期竞争平衡的核心引擎。 --- ### [01:54:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6854s) 赞助商插播：Fundrise 的风险投资与私募民主化 在深入解析拍卖规则前，节目插播了赞助商 Fundrise 的最新动态： - Fundrise 最初以面向美国普通散户投资者的最大房地产投资平台起家，是节目的长期合作伙伴。 - 伴随摩尔定律与科技对各行各业的重塑，大批优质科技独角兽长期保持私有化状态，导致普通投资者无法分享早期红利。Fundrise 于 2022 年逆向推出了民主化的风险投资基金，让散户也能享有 Pre-IPO 投资机会。 - 目前其投资组合涵盖 Databricks、Canva、Anduril、Ramp、Vanta、Anthropic 以及已于 2024 年 12 月成功上市的 ServiceTitan。 - 当 ServiceTitan 挂牌上市时，成千上万通过 Fundrise 入场的散户与顶级 VC、LP 以及核心员工一同共享了资本盛宴。 --- ### [01:56:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=6960s) 竞技平衡的终极探索：硬帽、软帽与豪门王朝的弊端 回到拍卖话题，这套年度球员拍卖规则早在球队牌照竞标之前就已经全盘固定。作为老板，在花数千万美元买队前，必须清晰预判这套拍卖机制如何运作。除掉完全不需要操心的球场土建与折旧，网罗全球顶级球员的薪资支出将是车队损益表上无可争议的第一大成本项。 不同体育联盟管理该成本与平衡竞争的方式截然不同： | 联赛 | 薪资与平衡机制 | 运行逻辑与核心问题 | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **NFL（美式橄榄球）** | **绝对硬工资帽（Hard Cap）** | 被视为竞技平衡的黄金标准。资方与球员工会劳资谈判敲定绝对支出上限，所有球队人人平等，严禁越雷池一步。 | | **NBA（篮球）** | **软工资帽（Soft Cap）+ 奢侈税（Luxury Tax）** | 允许特例超帽，代价是支付累进奢侈税。但这导致联盟外的资本厚度或球队本土球市营收能力直接干扰引援能力。虽然奢侈税理论上会二次平分给其他球队，但实际效果大打折扣，容易催生勇士、湖人、凯尔特人、马刺等垄断多年的超级王朝。 | | **MLB（棒球）** | **无工资帽 / 仅竞争平衡税** | 资本实力雄厚的超大球市强队可以肆意碾压中小球市，恶化联赛长期的竞争公平。 | 正是在审视了欧美职业体育这些或僵化、或失衡的制度缺陷之后，IPL 设计出的“硬帽结合明码竞拍”机制，才成为了体育商业史上最精彩的一次制度跃迁。 ### [01:59:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=7155s) 北美职业体育联盟薪资机制的缺陷：从 NBA 奢侈税到 MLB 的“假上限” 在审视成熟体育联盟的竞技平衡机制时，NBA 的软工资帽和奢侈税制度表面上看起来很美好，但现实中的赢家往往暴露了其内在缺陷。除了圣安东尼奥马刺队这种少数非大市场球队能成为特例之外，真正频繁夺冠的几乎全是大都市豪强——旧金山湾区（金州勇士队）、洛杉矶（洛杉矶湖人队）、迈阿密（迈阿密热火队）。这些大市场球队资金充沛，完全能够承受巨额奢侈税的惩罚，使得制度原本旨在限制豪强的初衷大打折扣。 而相比 NBA 处于中间态的折中方案，美国职业棒球大联盟（MLB）的薪资控制更是一场“彻底的骗局”。MLB 压根没有真正的工资帽，只有一个所谓的“竞争平衡税”（Competitive Balance Tax）。在 NBA，球队即便超帽，在何时、以何种方式以及能超额多少方面仍受极其繁琐严苛的规则约束；但在 MLB，系统只设立了几个梯档，只要球队愿意缴纳相应比例的罚金，超出的薪资支出完全没有上限，堪称“花无限多的钱，交无限多的罚款”。2024 年，MLB 有多达 9 支球队突破了竞争平衡税阈值，其中最肆无忌惮的当属洛杉矶道奇队（Los Angeles Dodgers），其超额支出竟高达 1 亿美元。而毫无悬念地，道奇队最终赢得了当年的世界大赛冠军——这背后的逻辑显而易见：洛杉矶拥有全美最大的媒体市场，而 MLB 各队拥有专属的地方转播权，道奇队自身的天价地方电视转播合同赋予了他们雄霸联盟的资本实力。 这种金钱对竞技公平的碾压严重削弱了赛事的观赏性。除了漫长的 162 场常规赛让人疲倦之外，巨大的贫富差距让竞争失去了悬念。例如在 2024 年的美联冠军赛（ALCS）中，来自克利夫兰的守护者队（Cleveland Guardians）全队薪资总额仅为 1.06 亿美元左右，而他们的对手纽约扬基队（New York Yankees）总薪水却突破了 3 亿美元，高达前者的三倍之多。面对这种资本鸿沟，守护者队能紧咬比分甚至显得像是一场奇迹。 - **NBA 夺冠与市场关联**：除马刺队等极少数例外，夺冠主力几乎清一色来自湾区、洛杉矶、迈阿密等大市场。 - **2024 年 MLB 奢侈税超标球队**：共 9 支球队突破竞争平衡税线。 - **洛杉矶道奇队超帽幅度**：单季薪资超标 1 亿美元，并顺理成章夺得世界大赛冠军。 - **2024 年 ALCS 薪资悬殊对比**：克利夫兰守护者队（约 1.06 亿美元）对阵纽约扬基队（超过 3 亿美元，约守护者队的 3 倍）。 --- ### [02:01:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=7313s) 欧洲足球的降级诅咒与拉利特·莫迪的拍卖狂想 在 IPL 诞生之前，北美四大联盟中唯有 NFL（国家橄榄球联盟）被奉为平衡与商业运营的黄金标准，真正做到了“任何一个周日，任何球队都有可能爆冷获胜”（Any Given Sunday）。反观欧洲足球联赛（西甲、德甲、英超），不仅长期被极少数传统豪门所垄断，其特有的“升降级制度”（Relegation）更堪称球队投资者的噩梦。在降级机制下，球队一旦战绩糟糕，非但无法像北美联盟那样通过选秀倒流平衡资源，反而会直接被踢出顶级联赛。对于俱乐部老板而言，斥巨资建立的转播权溢价与商业帝国转瞬间便可能灰飞烟灭，这形成了阻碍长期资本稳定投入的最大逆向激励。 正是看透了欧美现有体制的种种弊病，IPL 创始人拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）抛出了一个颠覆性的构想：放弃传统的工资帽制度，全面引入“球员拍卖会”。此前在转播权和赞助商招标中，莫迪多次通过拍卖机制大获全胜，他深刻意识到拍卖能够把复杂的谈判压缩为透明、即时的单次现场博弈，并在人为设立的上下限护栏内，利用商业世界的客观规律精准发现资产的真实公允价值，不给任何一方留下多余的套利空间。播客主持人戏称莫迪为真正的“价值最大化先驱”（Value Maximization Pioneer），其对价值捕获的极致追求甚至堪比当年的高通（Qualcomm）。 莫迪之所以采用拍卖机制，灵感源自他家族企业与国际知名拍卖行苏富比（Sotheby's）在印度的合作经验。莫迪坚信“价高者得”不仅完全公开透明，而且必然会引爆全社会的轰动与争议。他曾直言不讳地指出，IPL 战略的核心支柱之一就是设立一个专门制造“争议”的部门。在莫迪的商业哲学里，争议等于免费的头条新闻；无论公众是爱是恨，只要大家都在议论 IPL，赛事就立于不败之地，而且官方绝不对争议做任何多余的辩解。当印度媒体纷纷惊呼“世界上顶尖的板球巨星竟被像牛羊一样公开拍卖”时，莫迪的舆论发动机已经全面运转并获得了巨大成功。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 各大职业体育联赛薪资与竞争机制对比 accDescr: 对比欧洲足球、MLB、NBA、NFL以及IPL球员拍卖制在财务与竞争平衡上的机制差异 subgraph EuropeanSoccer["欧洲足球 (英超 / 西甲)"] ES1["无统一工资帽"] --> ES2["豪门长期垄断"] ES2 --> ES3["升降级制度严重打击投资信心"] end subgraph MLB["北美 MLB"] M1["竞争平衡税 (软帽)"] --> M2["无超标上限 / 巨额罚款无效"] M2 --> M3["大市场球队转播自理 / 资本碾压"] end subgraph NFL["北美 NFL"] N1["硬工资帽体系"] --> N2["追求均势 / Any Given Sunday"] N2 --> N3["容易被延期合同与场外利益暗中规避"] end subgraph IPL["印度 IPL (莫迪拍卖制)"] I1["透明即时球员公开拍卖"] --> I2["争议营销产生全网轰动"] I2 --> I3["杜绝场外抽屉协议 / 彻底的价格发现"] end ``` --- ### [02:04:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=7478s) 球员拍卖制对传统硬工资帽漏洞的降维打击 事实证明，莫迪设计的公开拍卖不仅极具眼球效应，更在经济学层面构建了完美的闭环，直接化解了即便是最严密“硬工资帽”（Hard Salary Cap）也无法根除的系统性漏洞。硬工资帽最大的阿喀琉斯之踵，在于联盟很难彻底监管“体制外的暗箱操作”。以监管极其严格的 NFL 为例（每队约拥有 2.55 亿美元硬工资帽），如果一支球队只剩 1,000 万美元薪资空间，却渴望同时签下要价均为 800 万美元的两名核心球员，现实中往往会滋生大量低信任环境下的擦边球行为：球队可以让球员以每人 500 万美元的“折让价”签约以合规入帽，但私下由老板旗下的关联企业向球员提供每年 300 万美元的代言合同，或者给予极低成本的球队股权。 除开违规商业代言，球员的个人情感与场外商业布局同样会扭曲常规谈判。例如堪萨斯城酋长队的名将特拉维斯·凯尔西（Travis Kelce），在其生涯中后期凭借播客频道等场外商业帝国赚得盆满钵满，他即便在自由市场上能从别队拿到更高薪水，也绝不愿离开酋长队去扮演背叛母队的“反派摔角手”（Heel）角色。在这种情境下，传统谈判机制允许管理层利用人情捆绑、城市吸引力或场外利益，仅用 1,000 万美元的账面空间撬动价值 1,600 万美元的球星战力。 不仅如此，北美体系下的多年度复杂合同也是规避工资帽的重灾区。球队可以通过拉长签约年限、重构签约奖金，随意把当期薪资压力推迟至未来的年份。最典型的当属 NFL 四分卫的顶薪续约谈判：作为队内薪酬最高的领袖，四分卫既渴望顶薪，又迫切需要超级碗戒指，球队管理层往往会借此大打情感牌，游说四分卫在合同前几年接受较低的入账金额，以便腾出当下的薪资空间去引援顶级外接手与跑卫，抢夺战绩夺冠窗口。而 IPL 的公开拍卖机制彻底砍断了所有这些繁文缛节、情感拉扯与私下交易，让每一名球员的即时身价都在大庭广众之下由纯粹的市场竞价决定。 - **NFL 工资帽基准**：每支球队享有约 2.55 亿美元的硬工资帽限额。 - **传统工资帽漏洞形态**： - 关联企业暗中提供赞助代言或股权补偿。 - 运用城市情怀与公众人设等非货币手段压低球星薪酬。 - 签署多年期递延合约，将巨额薪水冲击推延至后续年份。 - **莫迪拍卖机制的本质优势**：消除私下抽屉协议与情感博弈，现场一锤定音，实现真正公正透明的市场价格发现。 ### [02:08:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=7696s) 拍卖机制的精妙设计：杜绝场外勾结与建立盈利保障 在传统体育联盟（如 NFL）中，球队经理常常对球星说："你现在先降薪，好让我们省下硬工资帽空间去签顶级外接手或防守悍将，等过几年我们再把钱补给你，大家一起当个团队型球员。"这种规避薪资帽的场外私下运作比比皆是。 拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）为 IPL 设立的球员拍卖机制之所以绝妙，在于他设定了双向边界：既有每支球队的支出上限（Purse），也有强制性的支出下限（约为上限的 75%）。当时莫迪已经掌握了中央转播权、赞助商收入以及所有球队老板每年需缴纳的特许经营费，因此他完全能够主导并掌控每支球队的损益表（P&L）。他将拍卖总预算上限精准定在一个能确保所有球队维持盈利的水平上；同时设立保底支出下限，以防某支球队为了追求极致利润而只买便宜的替补球员，把薪水压得极低。 拍卖机制的革命性在于它将所有的资源博弈**浓缩在同一个时间切点**（collapses everything down to a single point in time）。所有人置身同一间屋子，拿着等额的有限筹码，就像玩一场“大富翁”棋盘游戏。外界的场外勾结瞬间失效：老板就算私下许诺球星几百万美元的商业代言，在拍卖现场也不会平白多出一分钱筹码；即便球队与某位球员私下串通好报低价以节省空间，隔壁桌的竞标对手也会立刻出更高的价格将其抢走。拍卖作为一种即时资产定价机制，迫使所有人只能按照真实市场价值竞价。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL 拍卖制度与竞争机制 accDescr: 展示 IPL 拍卖会如何通过上下限控制、标准化合约及集中博弈保障联赛的财务健康与竞技平衡。 subgraph Governance ["联盟薪资治理"] Cap["总支出上限 (Purse)<br>确保各队维持盈利"] Floor["支出下限 (约 75%)<br>防止摆烂与低薪套现"] end subgraph Auction ["现场即时拍卖机制"] Lots["分组随机出牌 (Lots)"] Discovery["即时发现真实市场公允价"] Fairness["消除场外利益勾结与降薪作弊"] end subgraph Outcome ["竞争结果"] Analytics["依赖高级数据分析与球探评估"] StandardContract["3年标准化合同 (无经纪人谈判空间)"] end Cap --> Discovery Floor --> Discovery Lots --> Discovery Discovery --> Fairness Fairness --> Analytics Discovery --> StandardContract ``` 球员被分成不同批次（Lots），在每批内随机抽取上架。在这种架构下，一支球队战胜其他竞争对手的唯一合法途径就是拥有更强的信息情报——即高级数据分析与顶尖的球员评估能力。 - **拉贾斯坦皇家队（Rajasthan Royals）的奇迹**：第一年拍卖上限为 500 万美元，下限约为 330 万美元。作为特许经营权拍卖中最便宜的球队，皇家队抠门到连 330 万美元的最低消费线都没达到，因此被莫迪课以罚款。然而，凭借超越全联盟的数据分析和球员发掘眼光，他们竟然在当年夺得了 IPL 首届总冠军。 --- ### [02:11:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=7886s) 标准化三年合约与去经纪人化：硅谷 SAFE 协议式的极简主义 为了杜绝违规操作并压低交易成本，IPL 实行了严格的三年期标准化合约。由于机制彻底封闭在拍卖瞬间，暗箱操作失去生存空间——除非球队走极端去参与假球丑闻（贿赂球员去其他球队然后故意输球，这在随后的几年里的确构成了阴暗面）。 这种即时结清的制度赋予了联盟极高的标准化权力：所有球员合约格式一致，条款完全公开，没有任何复杂的场外附加条件谈判。每位球员签下 3 年期合同，每年赛季结束后双方均拥有退出的选择权（球队认为球员状态下滑可以直接裁员将其扔回拍卖池，球员同样有权选择离开）。这意味着体育经纪人的作用被彻底削弱——价格由现场拍卖竞价决定，合同套用现成模板。这正如 Y Combinator 推出的 SAFE（未来股权简单协议）一样：只要在空格里填上估值上限数字即可，大幅节省了法律与谈判成本。 --- ### [02:13:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=7993s) 收入分配的胡萝卜与大棒：球员为何接受低分成？ 从宏观分成来看，IPL 似乎极度偏向资方：NFL 等多数主流体育联盟中球员通常能分得联盟总收入的 50% 左右，英超联赛球员薪资占比甚至超过 60%（导致俱乐部财务底子极其脆弱甚至陷入亏损）。而在 IPL，球员分到的收入份额仅占联盟总营收的 12% 到 15%。 即便分成比例极低，球员们依然兴奋不已，这源于“胡萝卜与大棒”并存的现实激励： 1. **增量盘子巨大（胡萝卜）**：在 IPL 诞生前，板球运动员完全依赖本国国家队板球委员会发放微薄薪资。全国仅有一支国家队，能靠打球谋生的运动员屈指可数。IPL 一下子在印度创造了 8 支球队的庞大就业岗位，且虽然只拿 12%-15%，但整个营收大盘极其庞大，绝对收入远超以往。 2. **极短的比赛窗口（胡萝卜）**：IPL 赛季每年仅持续约两个月。球员打完两个月比赛拿到巨额报酬后，余下的 10 个月时间完全自由，可以继续代表国家队参赛或奔赴世界各地其他联赛打球捞金。 3. **国家队资格威胁（大棒）**：对印度本土球员而言，印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）掌握着生杀大权——如果不服从 IPL 的制度安排，BCCI 便能直接剥夺其代表印度国家队参赛的资格。 节目指出，2008 至 2010 年间这种分配模式并无太大争议：当时每队薪资帽为 500 万美元，各队从中央池分得的收入也就 1000 万美元上下，比例尚称合理。真正导致分配比例断崖式失衡的，是随后几年爆炸式增长的转播权与商业赞助收入，而 BCCI 牢牢压制了球员工资帽的增长幅度。 --- ### [02:16:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=8176s) 超级拍卖、留队机制与中央收入池的未解之谜 除了常规运作，IPL 每三年还会举行一次“超级拍卖”（Super Auction），届时除各队允许保留的最多 4 名核心特许经营球员外，其余所有球员必须重新放回选手池重新竞价洗牌。保留 4 名球员的初衷是为了培养本土忠诚度和俱乐部品牌积淀（如同让汤姆·布雷迪长期效力于新英格兰爱国者队）。虽然保留球员依然要扣除一定的工资帽额度，且不可避免地在边缘地带滋生出更多私下补贴协议，但这套架构依然被主持人大赞为“现代体育联盟运营的最优范本”。 最后，对话抛出了一个关键悬念：在联赛初期的收入分配模型中，各特许经营球队第一年可分得中央收入池（Central Pool）80% 的资金，未来这一比例将逐渐降至 50%。那么，剩下的那另外 50% 极其庞大的巨额收入，到底流向了何方？ ### [02:17:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=8241s) BCCI 的 50% 收入分成与管辖机构争议 Ben 与 David 探讨了 IPL 与美国职业体育联盟（尤其是 NFL）之间一个极其关键且根本性的制度差异。在 NFL 的体系中，联盟办公室本质上是一个清算中心（clearinghouse），年底账面留存利润为零，100% 的中央池收入都会按比例重新分配给各支球队。然而在 IPL 中，印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）作为整个国家的板球主管机构直接压在联赛之上，单方面抽取中央收入池整整 50% 的分红。随着转播权和赞助协议飙升至天文数字，这笔被抽走的资金规模变得骇人听闻。 表面上的官方理由是：BCCI 是印度板球乃至全球板球运动的实际护航人（stewards），这笔资金理应投入两大领域： 1. **球场基础设施维护与修缮**（不过正如后文揭示的，这笔钱实际并没有真正流入基础设施建设）； 2. **球员发掘与人才培养**。IPL 相比 MLB 等拥有成熟小联盟系统、春训基地和全球 365 天无休球探网络的百年联赛，在青训体系上极度原始，各支 IPL 球队自身并没有建立青训链条，沉重的底层球员培养工作全部落在了 BCCI 肩上。 然而 Ben 敏锐地指出，BCCI 实际上根本用不掉数以亿计甚至数十亿美元去搞所谓的青训和“几乎不存在”的球场建设。这就引发了一个深层的制度哲学追问：一个健康的资本主义联盟，本质上只是各个独立车队/球队实体之间的轻量契约联盟，究竟是否真的需要一个高高在上的官僚主管机构来抽取半数利润？ ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL 与 NFL 收入分配模式对比 accDescr: 对比展示 NFL 将全部收入分配给球队，而 IPL 则由 BCCI 截留 50% subgraph NFL["NFL 模式 (完全商业化清算)"] N_Rev["全联盟中央总收入"] --> N_CH["联盟办公室 (归零结账)"] N_CH -->|"100% 均分"| N_Teams["32 支球队 (各得 1/32)"] end subgraph IPL["IPL 模式 (管理机构抽成)"] I_Rev["中央收入池 (版权/核心赞助)"] --> I_Split{"50/50 划分"} I_Split -->|"50%"| I_BCCI["BCCI 印度板控委<br/>(名义青训/基建留存)"] I_Split -->|"50%"| I_Teams["8 支加盟球队均分"] end ``` --- ### [02:20:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=8447s) 8 支球队特许经营权拍卖：资本与权贵的盛宴 当 BCCI 发放特许经营权拍卖的机密备忘录（Information Memorandum）时，明眼人都看得出这是一笔稳赚不赔的暴利生意。这不是一道需要华尔街金融奇才精打细算的估值难题，而是一场赤裸裸的**入场特权（access）**争夺战——只要有人把球队名额递到你面前，闭着眼睛跟投出价即可。虽然 Lalit Modi 和 BCCI 坚称竞标公开透明，但真正的门槛在于你是否处在那个顶级核心圈层内。 拍卖设定的底价为单支球队 10 年内分期支付 5000 万美元（8 支球队保底总计 4 亿美元）。竞标最终以 7.24 亿美元的总额轰动成交，单支球队平均价格约 9000 万美元。令人惊叹的是最高价与最低价之间的价差极小，证明联盟顶层的制度设计在各队价值平衡上极为成功： - **孟买印第安人队（Mumbai Indians）**：被印度首富、信实工业（Reliance）掌门人穆克什·安巴尼（Mukesh Ambani）以 1.12 亿美元的天价摘得，创下全场最高纪录； - **拉贾斯坦皇家队（Rajasthan Royals）**：由常驻伦敦的 Manoj Badale 牵头的英国投资财团以 6700 万美元拿下，是全场最便宜的球队； - **加尔各答骑士队（Kolkata Knight Riders）**：宝莱坞巨星沙鲁克·汗（Shah Rukh Khan）财团以 7500 万美元拍得； - **旁遮普国王旁遮普队（Kings XI Punjab）**：宝莱坞女星普丽缇·泽塔（Preity Zinta）财团以 7600 万美元拍下，仅比沙鲁克·汗高出 100 万美元； - **金奈超级国王队（Chennai Super Kings）**：时任 BCCI 董事、不久后成为 BCCI 主席并坐拥印度水泥公司（India Cements）的工业寡头 N. Srinivasan，顶着巨大的利益冲突以 9100 万美元拍得。 --- ### [02:23:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=8629s) 首届球员拍卖会与无懈可击的竞技平衡 加盟特许权尘埃落定数周后，备受瞩目的首届球员公开拍卖会拉开帷幕，局面如 Lalit Modi 预言的那样演变成了一场狂热的媒体狂欢。传奇球星 MS 托尼（MS Dhoni）拍出了 150 万美元的破纪录身价。在当时每支球队仅有 500 万美元薪酬硬工资帽的前提下，一支球队在场上只有 11 名球员，单单签下托尼一人就花掉了整队工资帽的 30%。这种挥金如土的戏剧性牢牢抓住了全国电视观众的眼球。 尤为可贵的是，严苛的工资帽与拍卖机制造就了极佳的竞技平衡（competitive parity）： - 竞标造价最低、被戏称为“吝啬鬼”的拉贾斯坦皇家队，凭借领先全联盟的先锋数据分析模型，在首届赛季一举爆冷夺冠。 - 纵观 IPL 运营至今的 17 个赛季，联赛扩充至 10 支球队，其中竟然有 7 支不同球队夺得过总冠军；全联盟所有 10 支球队全都至少闯入过决赛。这种充满悬念、毫无绝对垄断的赛制设计，直接促成了每年 3 月底到 5 月底全印黄金档收视狂潮。 --- ### [02:25:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=8729s) 压哨击出六分打：首季即巅峰的商业奇迹 商业史上绝大多数堪称伟大的构想（如劳力士迪通拿最初遭遇滞销、爱马仕铂金包沉寂二十年才被封神）在刚起步时往往并不顺利，但 IPL 打破了这一宿命。它在第一天、第一场比赛就彻底引爆。 Lalit Modi 凭借纯粹的个人意志，将全印度的电视观众按在屏幕前，把体育比赛打造成了集黄金档肥皂剧、宝莱坞明星八卦、高强度对抗于一体的文化奇观。这种“首发即爆款”的奇迹之所以能够发生，是因为 Modi 在第一年就把所有筹码压了上去——这是一场没有任何容错空间的“高空钢丝杂技”。相比之下，动视暴雪出售《守望先锋》联赛（Overwatch League）席位的宏伟画卷却开局不利并迅速崩塌。 用板球运动中最具戏剧性的画面来形容：IPL 的第一季就像是击球手面对全场比赛的最后一球，本队还落后整整 5 分，必须在千钧一发之际轰出一记完美的“六分打”（six）才能绝杀翻盘——而 IPL 真的做到了。 ### [02:27:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=8833s) 梦幻揭幕战：麦卡伦震撼的158分与IPL的完美开局 在印度板球乃至整个联赛的阴影下，地下赌场和黑帮势力始终若隐若现，甚至可以说许多人的身家性命都押注在每一记击球之上。2008年4月18日，IPL迎来了历史上的揭幕战：皇家挑战者班加罗尔队（Royal Challengers Bangalore）客场挑战加尔各答骑士队（Kolkata Knight Riders）。作为加尔各答的老板，宝莱坞巨星沙鲁克·汗（Shah Rukh Khan）亲临现场，带领着盛大的入场游行引爆全场，全国每一台电视机几乎都在转播这场开幕盛典。对于联赛组织者来说，他们需要一个完美的开场故事，而实际发生的一切甚至超越了任何好莱坞编剧的想象。 加尔各答骑士队在拍卖会上拍下的新西兰外援布兰登·麦卡伦（Brendon McCullum）在这一晚奉献了神级表现，单人爆砍158分，直接带领球队锁定胜局。对于不熟悉板球的观众而言，可能很难理解158分的概念：在一场总共只有20个回合、全队总共只能面对120个投球（合法球）的T20比赛中，麦卡伦一个人面对自己打的球就轰下了158分。这种几乎把球场当成个人全垒打大赛的表现，被公认为世界板球史上最伟大的时刻之一。这种视觉冲击力是无法作假的，麦卡伦一次次将球击出边界打出“6分球”（Sixes），瞬间向全印度乃至全世界宣告了T20联赛不可思议的观赏性。 ### [02:28:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=8928s) 收视神话、草根夺冠与独特的奖金激励机制 揭幕战的爆炸性开局奠定了整个赛季的火爆基调。在首个赛季中，IPL全季的平均电视收视份额高达4.9%，这意味着当时印度全境所有开着的电视机中，平均有将近5%锁定在板球赛场上。在晚间8点至11点的黄金时段，没有任何一部传统热门肥皂剧能够与之匹敌。最终的冠军总决赛更是充满了戏剧张力——全联盟造价最低廉、最不被看好的“平民球队”拉贾斯坦皇家队（Rajasthan Royals），在全场比赛的最后一记投球中以极其惊险的方式绝杀夺冠。这场决赛吸引了高达10%的电视收视份额，IPL的初次亮相取得了无可争议的巨大商业成功。 除了精彩的比赛，IPL在联赛制度设计上也解决了一个长期困扰职业体育的痛点：奖金分配。在首个赛季，IPL设立了一个约占核心媒体转播版权费5%的奖金池，其中总冠军直接独揽约300万美元的现金大奖，其余奖金按战绩分给打入季后赛的队伍。主播们对比指出，像NFL这样的联盟存在着一种怪异的经济悖论：赢得超级碗在财务上往往是一个当期“净亏损”事件。因为球队不仅要在季后赛频繁奔波于客场、无法拿到常规主场的包厢及门票分成，夺冠后所在的城市甚至还会要求球队自己掏钱举办夺冠游行；正如达拉斯牛仔队老板杰里·琼斯（Jerry Jones）所证明的，在NFL不用夺冠也能赚得盆满钵满。而IPL则通过巨额的真金白银奖金，切实奖励了追求竞技胜利的球队老板。 - **全季平均电视收视份额**：首季达到 4.9%，击败黄金时段所有印度主流肥皂剧。 - **总决赛收视高潮**：拉贾斯坦皇家队在最后一球绝杀，决赛收视份额飙升至 10%。 - **冠军财务回报**：首年设立约 300 万美元的冠军奖金，直接从中央媒体版权池中抽取 5% 进行奖励。 ### [02:31:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=9110s) 征服女性受众：克里斯·盖尔胸口上的护肤品广告 IPL最初的核心假设之一是“能否吸引非男性观众，让女性也坐到电视机前”，首季交出的答卷是决定性的肯定。以往传统的国际板球对抗赛几乎没有女性收看，而IPL第一季的女性观众比例就达到了惊人的30%到35%（如今已达到男女各占50%的平衡状态）。这一受众维度的突破，彻底改写了商业赞助的格局。电视转播广告不再仅限于传统男性导向品牌，而是迅速拓展到了大众消费品和女性专属品牌。 最具代表性的突破发生在2019年，旁遮普国王队（Kings XI Punjab）达成了一项开创性的球衣赞助——将女性护肤品牌Lotus Herbals的标志印在球衣胸前，开创了全球男子职业体育俱乐部由女性美妆品牌担任主要球衣赞助商的先例。拉贾斯坦皇家队主要股东马诺吉·巴达勒（Manoj Badale）在其著作中生动地记录了这一幕：当西印度群岛的传奇重炮手、体型壮硕如板球界巴里·邦兹（Barry Bonds）的克里斯·盖尔（Chris Gayle），胸前赫然印着女性防晒保湿乳霜的品牌名字走上球场时，那种强烈的视觉反差堪称“颠覆性广告的典范”——正如一位广告高管所言，这是“将硬核女性品牌烙印在纯爷们的胸膛上”。赞助首年，该防晒霜的销售额直接暴涨了20%，IPL由此彻底打开了一个价值巨大的全新消费市场。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL受众扩展与广告商业化飞轮 accDescr: 展示IPL如何打破传统板球受众局限，吸引女性群体并推动赞助商变现的过程 subgraph Audience["受众结构变革"] A["传统板球赛事<br/>（男性观众为主）"] --> B["T20 快节奏与娱乐化包装"] B --> C["女性收视率跃升<br/>（首季达30%-35%，现达50%）"] end subgraph Commerce["商业与品牌变现"] C --> D["突破传统男性广告赞助边界"] D --> E["女性美妆与护肤品牌进驻<br/>（如 Lotus Herbals）"] E --> F["硬核巨星代言反差效果<br/>（克里斯·盖尔球衣赞助）"] F --> G["品牌销量暴涨 20%<br/>商业价值持续外溢"] end ``` ### [02:34:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=9256s) 赞助商时刻：Crusoe 及其垂直整合的物理 AI 基础设施 在回顾完首赛季的耀眼辉煌后，节目切入长期合作伙伴 Crusoe 的赞助插播。主播谈到，虽然如今IPL的价值比当年翻了20倍，但在初创的第二年，整个联赛几乎遭遇了灭顶之灾。在深入探讨那段惊心动魄的历史前，他们首先介绍了 Crusoe 在人工智能基础设施领域的革新。 Crusoe 不仅仅是一家 AI 云平台，其核心竞争力在于从零开始彻底重塑了 AI 基础设施的物理构建模式。首席执行官蔡斯·洛克米勒（Chase Lochmiller）很早就意识到，要想打造最优质的 AI 云，必须实现全栈垂直整合：从底层绿电与闲置能源的获取、物理数据中心的建设，一直到终端的 AI 云计算服务。最典型的案例是其在德克萨斯州阿比林（Abilene）建造的超级 AI 工厂： - **阿比林数据中心规模**：规划容量高达 1.2 吉瓦（GW）。作为对比，承载了全球约 70% 互联网流量的弗吉尼亚北部数据中心集群，其总容量目前也仅为 4.5 吉瓦左右；Crusoe 这一处单体设施的规模就达到了前者的四分之一以上。 - **惊人的建设周期**：2024年6月在一片荒地上破土动工，不到一年时间内就即将点亮首批建筑并交付使用。 - **全新服务体系**：推出托管式推理服务（Managed Inference Service）让开发者无需管理底层服务器，以及自动集群服务（AutoCluster Service）以消除模型训练的运维负担。 - **投资背景**：Acquired 两位主播在 Crusoe 最新一轮融资中与英伟达（Nvidia）、Founders Fund 等机构共同参与了投资。 ### [02:36:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=9409s) 强行撕毁合同与转播权转手翻四倍 第一季 IPL 落下帷幕后，联赛取得了超乎所有人想象的巨大成功。无论是印度板球超级联赛（IPL）掌门人拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）、印度板球控制委员会（BCCI），还是各支球队的老板，全都春风得意。然而，在此之前莫迪曾向世界体育集团（World Sports Group, WSG）和索尼（Sony）许下“君子协定”：如果这门生意搞砸了，他就撕毁合同，绝不让对方在接下来的 9 年里背负 9.4 亿美元的巨额包袱。可讽刺的是，正因为联赛火爆异常，这份 9 年 9.4 亿美元的长约反倒成了转播方捡来的“惊天大便宜”。 按照商业契约精神，长约本就应当让承担了早期风险的买家享受红利，但莫迪直接撕毁了合同。为了制造解约借口，他精心罗列了数条罪状：其一，指控索尼在商业广告时段允许信实工业（Reliance）旗下的电信业务打广告，这公然侵犯了 IPL 核心官方电信赞助商沃达丰（Vodafone）的排他性权益；其二，指控索尼在部分转播市场中提前切断比赛画面插入额外广告，甚至没有完整转播每轮（over）中的所有投球。本可以通过日常沟通要求整改的微小瑕疵，被莫迪扣押到了赛季结束后作为致命把柄打出。 凭借这些筹码，莫迪强势逼迫索尼与 WSG 重回谈判桌，并将转播权改为直接与索尼对接（仅给 WSG 留了一点国际转播权的“面包屑”）。双方最终敲定了一份全新的 10 年 24 亿美元超级大合同。这意味着索尼每年需支付 2.4 亿美元，足足是第一年 6000 万美元真金白银支出的 4 倍，同时也是原合同年均理论价值的 2.4 倍。索尼最终咬牙全盘接受并甘愿支付 4 倍价格的事实，恰恰证明了第一季留给转播方的利润有多么丰厚。正如莫迪一贯自傲的说辞：“我让所有人都发了财。” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL 转播权强制重组流程 accDescr: 展示拉利特·莫迪如何利用违约借口迫使索尼以原合同 4 倍的代价重签 24 亿美元大单 subgraph Grievances ["制造违约借口"] A["指控转播插入 Reliance 电信广告<br>（侵害 Vodafone 排他赞助权）"] B["指控部分市场提前切断转播<br>（抢播广告、遗漏投球）"] end subgraph Renegotiation ["强行重组合约"] C["单方面撕毁 9 年 9.4 亿美元原协议"] D["边缘化中间商 WSG<br>（仅保留部分国际转播权）"] end subgraph NewDeal ["索尼直接承接新长约"] E["签署 10 年 2.4 亿美元/年新合约<br>（总计 24 亿美元，现金流达原先 4 倍）"] end A --> C B --> C C --> D D --> E ``` ### [02:40:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=9608s) 2009 空运整个联赛：南非“气泡赛区”与商业奇迹 搞定了天价转播费后，联盟看似一帆风顺，但在筹备 2009 年第二季时却撞上了政治高墙——印度正逢竞争极其激烈的全国大选。各邦警方与政府部门纷纷向 BCCI 和 IPL 摊牌，表示大选期间维稳压力过大，根本无法为板球赛程提供足够的安全保障。在经历了各邦能否调配警力、是否能迁移部分比赛的主客场扯皮之后，管理层做出了一个极为大胆的决定：效仿后来 NBA 在疫情期间的迪士尼“隔离气泡区”（Bubble），索性把整个 IPL 搬出印度。 在短短约一个月的时间里，整个联赛被完整“空运”到了南非。所有球队和工作人员落地开普敦等城市并被重新安置，比赛在南非各大球场全面开打。令人称奇的是，这届海外举办的联赛不仅运转极其流畅，反而因祸得福： - **门票收入微不足道**：IPL 的财务模型本质上是一个高纯度的电视娱乐产品。即便在今天，一支典型球队的年收入中，中央版权分红高达约 6600 万美元，而主场门票收入仅在 400 万美元左右。因此丧失本土球场票房对大局几乎毫无影响。 - **跨洋卫星转播无缝衔接**：从南非传回印度的卫星信号质量极佳，本土观众的收视狂潮丝毫不减。 - **全球品牌辐射提速**：整建制将比赛移师另一个板球传统强国并大获成功，向全球观众展示了 IPL 的强大生命力，极大加速了其在板球世界成为跨国顶级 IP 的进程。 ### [02:42:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=9749s) 第三季两支新军扩军：从 7 亿美元疯狂拍卖到破产退出 经历了南非赛季的狂欢，联盟意气风发地决定在第三季进行扩军，新设两支加盟球队。尽管与北美 NFL（32 支球队）或 NBA 相比，仅增加两支球队已算克制，但竞拍现场依然演变成了资本狂欢。最终，浦那（Pune）和柯枝（Kochi）两支新特许经营权分别以 3.33 亿美元和 3.7 亿美元的天价落槌，较最初八支元老球队约 9000 万美元的均价呈现数倍爆发。 以年化指标衡量，新加盟商每年光是向 BCCI 支付的特许权加盟费就分别高达 3300 万和 3700 万美元。如果按照电视版权成倍上涨的资本溢价逻辑，这个估值或许合理，但对于新入局者的初始现金流而言无异于灭顶之灾。现实很快予以重击：柯枝队仅打了一个赛季便宣告破产并退出联盟；浦那队苦苦支撑了两个赛季后，也因陷入严重财务危机而不得不退出。 ### [02:44:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=9849s) 莫迪时代乐极生悲：22 项指控、地下博彩与王朝崩塌 两支新军的崩盘，成为了 IPL 与拉利特·莫迪传奇狂飙史的转折点。在这之前，一切指标都在向上突破，所有人都能在蛋糕变大的过程中分一杯羹；即便有竞标失利者，也从未有人真正亏损出局。然而，随着巨额资本泡沫破裂、投资人真金白银血本无归，各方隐忍已久的矛盾集中爆发，针对莫迪的“围猎”正式拉开序幕。 在 2010 赛季结束后，BCCI 正式暂停了拉利特·莫迪在董事会的职务，并向其发起了多达 22 项严厉指控，其中涉及重大的程序与经济黑幕： - **专横独断与流程越权**：在多项重大商业决定中绕过管理委员会（Governing Council），无视正规决策流程。 - **竞标操纵与利益输送**：在加盟权拍卖中操纵竞标、暗箱操作，将重要合同与项目私相授受给亲朋好友，并在媒体转播合同谈判中收取高额回扣。 - **秘密持股**：暗中运作自己的家族成员及亲信圈子，秘密持有最初八支球队中三支球队的原始股权。（虽然此项指控带有极强烈的“五十步笑百步”色彩——莫迪在 BCCI 的头号死敌、董事会核心 N. 斯里尼瓦桑［N. Srinivasan］本身就通过其控股的印度水泥公司［India Cements］公开拥有金奈超级国王队［Chennai Super Kings］）。 - **参与非法博彩与洗钱**：涉嫌直接参与针对联赛比赛的操纵和押注。 在印度，博彩在法律层面是明令禁止的，但台面下的板球地下博彩网络却盘根错节、规模惊人。如同电影《卡萨布兰卡》里的讽刺台词一样，人人都知道暗流汹涌： - **海外合法盘口的庞大数字**：在博彩合法的海外国家，仅能通过正规海外博彩机构追踪到的 IPL 单场赛事投注流水，就高达约 7.5 亿美元。 - **本土黑市与黑手党渗透**：在印度本土，通过黑帮（underworld/mafia）运转的地下地下庄家盘口规模更为庞大。 当堂堂联赛最高掌门人莫迪被正式指控亲自下场押注比赛、勾结地下洗钱势力时，性质彻底上升为毁灭性的司法风暴，法庭与各方权力机构随即重拳介入。 ### [02:47:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=10033s) 莫迪的流亡与至暗时刻：百亿帝国的缔造者终身被逐 随着调查的深入，印度的法律体系与警方全面介入。在局势彻底失控之际，拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）选择离开印度，远走伦敦并定居至今。自 2010 年这场风暴爆发以来，他再也没有踏上过印度的土地。到了 2013 年，印度板球总会（BCCI）正式对他实施终身禁赛（bars him for life）——一个凭一己之力让这项赛事拔地而起、为所有合伙人与投资人创造了数十亿美元财富的核心功臣，就这样被永远逐出了印度板球界。 面对多方指控，莫迪至今仍坚决否认一切罪名并激烈为自己辩护。至于当年为何仓皇出境，莫迪近期在播客及多家主流媒体上公开宣称，当时印度的黑手党（Mafia）对他下了追杀令（hit on him），想要取他的性命。按莫迪的说法，黑手党深度参与了巨额的地下非法博彩，极度渴望操纵比赛，而正是因为他在 IPL 内部坚决拒绝假球（match fixing），才招致了杀身之祸。 播客主持人们感叹，围绕莫迪的各方说辞南辕北辙，真相早已湮没在巨大的争议与迷雾之中，根本无法调和。但归根结底，正如节目开篇所说，莫迪是一个极其张扬多元的人物。现实的底层逻辑非常残酷：只要音乐还在播放，只要莫迪能持续不断地让所有商业伙伴赚大钱，一切矛盾都可以被掩盖；然而一旦出现重大亏损与变故，“所有人的刀子就立刻拔了出来（the knives came out）”。 ### [02:48:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=10122s) 2013 假球丑闻：钦奈超级国王与点球作弊引爆危机 2013 年对莫迪实施终身禁赛的决定背后，存在着极为讽刺的戏剧性冲突。当时推动驱逐莫迪的核心推手、也是莫迪在体制内的最大死敌，正是时任 BCCI 主席 N·斯里尼瓦桑（N. Srinivasan）。斯里尼瓦桑通过其家族企业“印度水泥”（India Cements）掌控着豪门球队钦奈超级国王队（Chennai Super Kings, CSK）。然而，就在 BCCI 宣布对莫迪终身禁赛的 2013 赛季，印度警方展开了一场秘密诱捕行动（sting operation），当场抓获了两支 IPL 球队涉案人员的作弊行为——涉事的两支队伍恰恰是拉贾斯坦皇家队（Rajasthan Royals）以及斯里尼瓦桑旗下的钦奈超级国王队。 需要厘清的是，这次丑闻并非传统意义上的“操纵全场比赛胜负”（match fixing），而是“点球作弊”（spot fixing，局部操纵）。全场假球需要整支球队甚至双方合谋打假球，牵涉面太广；而点球作弊则是针对地下博彩开出的微观盘口下注——比如对某一回合（over，即一组 6 次投球）的具体表现下注。不法分子会花钱买通某位投球手，让他在特定的一回合故意投出臭球，以便对方击球手刷出高分，反之亦然。虽然表面上有人辩解“这并不一定决定整场比赛的输赢，到底有多大实质危害？”，但这极大地摧毁了球迷与观众对比赛公正性的基本信任，对于整个联赛而言无异于灭顶之灾，更何况涉案的还是 BCCI 现任主席自己的球队。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 2013至2015年IPL治理危机与重组流程 accDescr: 展现从2013年假球丑闻爆发、最高法院接管调查，到2015年重组改革的完整历程。 subgraph Crisis ["2013 丑闻爆发与停滞"] A["警方诱捕点球作弊<br/>(CSK & 皇家队涉案)"] --> B["BCCI主席斯里尼瓦桑否认<br/>拒绝主动辞职"] B --> C["联盟信誉濒临崩塌<br/>约40-50亿美元市值面临归零"] end subgraph Intervention ["最高法院干预 (2013-2015)"] C --> D["印度最高法院全面介入<br/>实质接管BCCI并展开2年调查"] end subgraph Reform ["2015 判决与重生"] D --> E["强制斯里尼瓦桑下台<br/>CSK与皇家队禁赛两季"] D --> F["建立阳光合规治理体系<br/>清扫外资入局障碍"] end ``` ### [02:50:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=10235s) 最高法院铁腕接管：从信任崩溃到制度重生 面对警方的铁证，斯里尼瓦桑起初断然否认，并强硬拒绝辞去 BCCI 主席一职。这场恶性事件最终却戏剧性地成为了 IPL 历史上最幸运的转折点。主持人们分析，如果没有这场假球丑闻的彻底爆发，仅凭莫迪被赶下台，联赛很可能会滑向更加无序和危险的深渊。正是因为丑闻烂到了根子上，才迫使印度最高权力机构——印度最高法院（Supreme Court of India）直接介入。 印度最高法院事实上接管了 BCCI，耗费两年时间对整个机构的财务、权力结构和违规行为展开彻底调查与制度重组。2015 年，最高法院公布了最终裁决： - 强制斯里尼瓦桑辞去 BCCI 主席职务； - 全面改组重构 BCCI 的管理与监管架构； - 对卷入作弊丑闻的钦奈超级国王队与拉贾斯坦皇家队处以**禁赛两个赛季**的严厉惩罚； - 在两队禁赛期间，由来自浦那（Pune）和拉杰果德（Rajkot）的两支临时特许加盟球队填补空缺； - 确立一套彻底透明、规范化、从零起步的治理准则与改革方案。 拉贾斯坦皇家队的老板马诺吉·巴达莱（Manoj Badale）在其著作《A New Innings》中深刻反思了这段历程。他直言这是 IPL 乃至整个印度现代商业演进的转折点。长期以来，外国直接投资（FDI）进入印度一直步履蹒跚，核心顾虑集中在政治稳定性、普遍的腐败风险以及政策法规的溯及力风险。而 IPL 是印度在全球范围内最具辨识度、最具统治力的现象级商业超级品牌。最高法院意识到，印度绝不能让全世界觉得自己的商业明珠是由黑手党和腐败官僚操纵的骗局，必须以铁腕刮骨疗毒。最高法院的托底拯救，让 IPL 从此真正走上了现代化专业体育商业组织的轨道。 ### [02:52:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=10370s) 拯救 50 亿美金市值：印度的全球“国家冠军” 节目常客、TDM Growth 合伙人兼前澳大利亚职业板球国手埃德·考恩（Ed Cowan）为这段历史提供了独特的局内人视角。考恩不仅亲历了 IPL 的诞生与职业赛场，其在播客《Business Breakdowns》中对 IPL 的商业拆解也是本期的核心参考资料。考恩指出：“在许多层面上，IPL 是大规模外商投资的晴雨表。印度政府意识到，向世界展示良好的治理水平位于新现代印度的核心，这与自身的核心利益高度契合。如果没有最高法院在 2015 年前后确立的新治理架构，今天像 RedBird Capital 或 CVC 这样的大型全球机构投资者根本不可能大举注资 IPL。” 在最高法院干预之前，IPL 全部球队合计约 40 亿至 50 亿美元的企业价值（Enterprise Value）几乎濒临清零。而比金钱更宝贵的是印度的国家声誉。虽然印度在一些行业拥有全球龙头，但绝大部分集中在后台软件外包领域（如 Infosys、Wipro 等）或是塔塔（Tata）、信实（Reliance）这类聚焦本土市场的综合巨头，缺乏具有全球穿透力的消费级品牌。不可思议的是，IPL 竟然打破了这一宿命，成长为印度面向全球的真正“国家冠军”（National Champion）。这场阵痛洗礼虽然对莫迪、斯里尼瓦桑以及各支球队极为残酷，但它为随后全球顶级私募股权基金与跨国媒体巨头的入场扫清了障碍。 ### [02:55:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=10520s) 默多克 25 亿美元霸气回归与迪士尼世纪大并购 危机平息之后，步入 2010 年代后期的 IPL 迎来了商业价值的二次腾飞。2017 年，最初（经莫迪重新谈判后）由索尼持有的 10 年期版权合同终于到期。此时掌舵人早已换血，失去了莫迪的 IPL 迎来了老对手的大反扑——鲁伯特·默多克旗下的星空传媒（Star India）。 在与印度板球错过了整整十余年后，默多克终于重返牌桌，一举砸下 25 亿美元，拿下了为期 5 年的 IPL 全球媒体版权。这笔交易将 IPL 的单年转播权价值推高到了惊人的每年 5 亿美元： - 2008 年初创期合同：约合 6000 万至 1 亿美元 / 年； - 索尼重新谈判的修订合同：约 2.4 亿美元 / 年； - 2017 年星空传媒新合同：5 亿美元 / 年（版权价格翻倍）。 就在默多克完成竞标的同一年——2017 年 12 月，另一只靴子落地：华特迪士尼（Disney）以约 700 亿美元的惊人估值收购了 21 世纪福克斯（21st Century Fox），这笔收购完整包含了星空传媒在印度的所有业务及其刚刚拿下的 IPL 天价转播合同。历史在此刻形成了奇妙的闭环：早在 IPL 成立之前，迪士尼与福克斯在印度的合资实体就曾争夺过印度板球转播权；二十年后，两者在全球层面的合并，使 IPL 成为了迪士尼流媒体与海外版图中最耀眼的核心资产。 而在版权暴涨的背后，2016 年印度本土还发生了一场更加翻天覆地的商业海啸——穆克什·安巴尼（Mukesh Ambani）旗下的信实工业推出了震撼全国的 Reliance Jio。随后，Facebook 更是一举斥资 57 亿美元购入 Jio 10% 的股权，整个印度的移动互联网革命正呼啸而来。 ### [02:57:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=10652s) Reliance Jio 革命与智能手机流量海啸 Mukesh Ambani 旗下的 Reliance Jio 在 2016 年横空出世，以激进甚至毁灭性的价格战将无线数据流量费用“实质上直接打到了零”。在 Jio 登场之前，印度的智能手机渗透率低得惊人：在 14 亿总人口中，活跃智能手机装机量仅有区区 3000 万部，基本仅限于极少数富裕阶层。当时距离初代 iPhone 面世已有 9 年，廉价安卓机也早已普及，但由于 Vodafone 等老牌电信运营商将印度数据资费定在与美国同等的高位，广大平民完全无力承担上网成本，这几乎重演了当年印度直到 90 年代才真正通电视的漫长技术滞后。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Reliance Jio 对印度智能手机及 IPL 的推动作用 accDescr: 流程图展示了 Reliance Jio 的价格战如何引爆智能手机普及，进而为 IPL 的流媒体化提供爆发性用户基础。 subgraph Telecom["电信基础设施变革 (2016-2022)"] JIO["Reliance Jio 推出 (2016)<br/>流量资费几乎降至零"] EXP["活跃智能手机保有量<br/>从 3000 万猛增至 8 亿"] end subgraph Streaming["IPL 流媒体爆发"] DPLUS["Star / 迪士尼 Hotstar 布局<br/>IPL 作为拉新战略核心"] VIEW["受众剧增<br/>流媒体单季独立观众破 6.2 亿"] end JIO --> EXP EXP --> DPLUS DPLUS --> VIEW ``` Jio 凭借颠覆性战略在短短六年内引发了数字海啸：到 2022 年，印度智能手机装机量从 3000 万部火箭般蹿升至 8 亿部。这一移动互联网普及浪潮瞬间成了 IPL 最强劲的外部增长引擎，同时也让 IPL 的数字媒体版权变成了迪士尼（Disney）在印度不可或缺的生命线。 - **2016 年智能手机保有量**：仅 3000 万部（占当时 14 亿人口的极小比例）。 - **2022 年智能手机保有量**：飙升至 8 亿部。 - **核心驱动因素**：Jio 将原先对标欧美高资费的移动数据套餐价格直接拉低至几乎免费。 --- ### [02:59:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=10745s) 迪士尼豪赌 Disney+ 与 Star 的转播工业化改造 对于时任迪士尼 CEO Bob Iger 而言，这一阶段的头号战略重心正是流媒体服务 Disney+。他在自传中曾列出三大核心原则：打造全球最顶级的 IP、全球化扩张，以及掌握技术主导权并 100% 拥有自有分发平台。随着迪士尼收购 21 世纪福克斯，旗下拥有 IPL 电视与数字版权的 Star 成了迪士尼冲刺全球流媒体订阅指标的“火箭燃料”——要想拉动 Disney+（在当地以 Disney+ Hotstar 运作）的订阅数据，最好的办法就是把全印度最顶级的国民内容 IPL 独家上线流媒体。 拿下 2017 年起为期五年、每年 5 亿美元的版权后，Star 与福克斯、迪士尼倾注了远超以往的制作水准。此前 Lalit Modi 合作的 Nimbus 与索尼（Sony）在涉足 IPL 之前均缺乏成熟的体育转播经验；如今背靠新闻集团与 ESPN 的成熟体系，转播规格迎来了质的飞跃。不仅大量部署高清机位、给球员和三柱门（Wicket）装上微型麦克风、裁判帽檐加装微型摄像机，更引入了高规格的视觉特效与赛事包装。 同时，Star 将美式体育（如 NFL 和大学橄榄球）中行之有效的剧情化运营理念全面引入 IPL。他们把赛事包装成万众瞩目的肥皂剧，推出“德比周”（Rivalry Week），将场外的转会动态、球员爱恨情仇与戏剧冲突无限放大，彻底点燃了全印度受众的观赛热情。 --- ### [03:02:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=10933s) 八大语种中心演播室与超越超级碗的收视神话 印度的语言格局极为独特：英语虽是全国的通用语（Lingua Franca），但对绝大多数人来说只是第二语言；而印地语（Hindi）尽管是使用人数最多的语言，却依然无法覆盖大量非印地语邦的人口。依托 IPL“同一时间仅进行一场比赛”的独门赛程优势，Star 在孟买搭建了一个拥有八层楼、八个不同主播台的庞大中央演播中心。同一路比赛信号被实时分发给八个不同语言的主播组，分别以印度八大主流语言进行本土化解说，并精准推送至全国各对应区域。 这种转播模式与 IPL 频繁的球员大拍卖机制产生了奇妙的化学反应。由于明星球员经常在各队之间转会，球迷往往既支持家乡球队，又深度追随特定的超级巨星（如 Virat Kohli 或 MS Dhoni）。观众不仅看自己城市的队伍，更会看遍全联盟有明星出战的所有场次，真正蜕变为整个 IPL 联赛的死忠粉。 这一套工业化组合拳缔造了惊人的收视奇迹： - **2019 年 IPL 决赛**：通过全国 17 个电视频道以多种语言同步播出，并结合 OTT 平台网络直播，全网独立观众数达到 3 亿至 4 亿人。 - **对比 2025 年美国超级碗（Super Bowl）**：作为全美电视史上收视率最高的电视盛事，超级碗观赛人数约为 1.38 亿，而 2019 年 IPL 决赛观众数已是其两到三倍。 - **常规赛独立观众数演进**：2022 年达到 3.61 亿；2023 年飙升至 5 亿；到 2024 年，仅流媒体端的观赛人数就高达 6.2 亿，相当于近半数印度国民都在通过流媒体收看常规赛。 --- ### [03:06:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=11169s) 2021 年球队扩军与顶级华尔街资本入局 2021 年，IPL 成功实施了联赛扩军，以公开拍卖的形式引入了两支全新加盟球队，两队的竞拍成交价相继打破历史纪录： 1. **古吉拉特泰坦队（Gujarat Titans）**：由英国著名私募股权巨头 CVC Capital Partners 以 7.5 亿美元竞得，创下当时的历史最高价。 2. **勒克瑙超级巨人队（Lucknow Super Giants）**：旋即被印度本土财团以高达 9.5 亿美元（近 10 亿美元）的天价摘牌。 这一价格相比 2008 年建军时约 1 亿美元的初创估值足足翻了近 10 倍。新球队加盟费采用 10 年期等额分期偿付的方式支付，并按比例返还补偿给联盟现有的八支老球队，以平衡扩军带来的中央媒体版权收益稀释。在经历了最高法院主导的治理结构整改后，BCCI（印度板球板球管制委员会）在商业运营和分红机制上显得规范透明了许多。 同在 2021 年，管理着约 100 亿美元资产的美国知名体育私募股权基金 RedBird Capital 入股了拉贾斯坦皇家队（Rajasthan Royals）。这支在 IPL 元年曾被视为廉价平民球队、最早接受英国外商直接投资、后因涉入“现货造假”（Spot-fixing）丑闻被勒令停赛两年的队伍，最终迎来了全球顶级体育 PE 的背书，标志着 IPL 的资产价值正式跻身全球顶级另类资产投资人的核心视野。 ### [03:07:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=11272s) 2022 年版权大洗牌：电视与流媒体的 2×2 拆分竞标 2015 年印度最高法院对 IPL 进行的整肃风暴，为联盟彻底扫清了制度和治理层面的阴霾，让 IPL 得以轻装上阵、稳步走上全球体育商业的顶级舞台。到了 2022 年夏季，IPL 赛季刚落下帷幕，Star India 此前签订的五年转播协议到期，新一轮版权拍卖正式启动。印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）此次采取了极其精明的打包策略：他们没有将所有版权打包甩卖，而是建立了一个经典的“2×2 矩阵”——纵轴分为国内（印度次大陆）与国际市场，横轴拆分为传统地面有线电视（Terrestrial TV）与数字流媒体（Streaming）。 在最重磅的印度次大陆国内版权竞标中，迪士尼旗下的 Disney Star 以微超 30 亿美元（约 31 亿美元）的价格续约了 5 年的电视版权。相比 2017 年他们花 25 亿美元直接买断“电视+数字”全套版权，这次 31 亿美元仅仅换来了单一的地面电视播放权。而另一侧的印度次大陆流媒体版权，则被 Viacom18 同样以略高于 31 亿美元的巨资一举拿下。Viacom18 是派拉蒙（Paramount）与印度首富穆克什·安巴尼（Mukesh Ambani）旗下的信实工业（Reliance）合资组建的企业，流媒体比赛将在其智能手机应用 JioCinema 上播出。电视与流媒体两个包最终拍出了几乎相当的天价。虽然当时电视广告盘子极大且变现稳定，有大批挥舞支票的广告主排队买单，而流媒体基数小、变现尚在早期，但安巴尼和 Reliance Jio 显然拥有全印度最庞大的移动网络生态，他们有底气也有资源去下注未来四到五年的移动互联网流媒体红利。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 2022年IPL版权2x2矩阵分配架构 accDescr: 展示BCCI在2022年拍卖中将IPL媒体版权按地域与渠道拆分为四个象限的买家格局。 subgraph Domestic["印度次大陆国内版权 (核心大单)"] D_TV["地面有线电视版权<br/><b>Disney Star</b><br/>约 31 亿美元 (5年)"] D_Stream["数字流媒体版权<br/><b>Viacom18 (Reliance Jio / Paramount)</b><br/>约 31 亿美元 (5年)"] end subgraph International["国际海外版权 (碎片化区域)"] I_Main["英/澳/新/南非等板球国家<br/><b>Viacom18</b> (含电视及流媒体)"] I_Niche["美洲与中东版权<br/><b>Times Internet / Willow TV</b><br/>(美国仅 3,300 万美元)"] end ``` ### [03:10:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=11432s) 迪士尼痛失数字版权，Disney+ 遭遇订阅增长滑铁卢 错失 IPL 流媒体数字版权，对华特迪士尼公司而言无异于一场战略地震。彼时正值鲍勃·艾格（Bob Iger）重返迪士尼掌舵，而由他一手奠定的 Disney+ 战略刚从高歌猛进的“终极王牌”演变成拖累财报的沉重包袱。在疫情期间，Disney+ 全球订阅用户突破 1.5 亿大关，华尔街甚至一度将其视为足以正面抗衡 Netflix 的流媒体巨擘。然而，庞大数字的背后很大程度上依托了印度本土绑定的 Disney+ Hotstar。 失去 IPL 数字版权后的首个财报季度，成了迪士尼流媒体神话的转折点——Disney+ 迎来了史上首次全球净订阅用户流失，单季直接净减少了两三百万订阅者。从财报趋势图上看，连续数个季度近乎垂直的增长曲线在 2022 年戛然而止，并迅速演变为持续五个季度的断崖式滑坡。如果单独拆解数据，欧美核心市场的“Disney+ Core”业务其实还在微幅增长，真正崩盘并拉垮全局的正是印度市场的 Disney+ Hotstar。此后，迪士尼不得不开始在财报中将印度业务与核心业务单独拆分列报，以安抚华尔街并表明“这只是印度的问题”。 - **国际版权的其余拼图**：Viacom18 不仅拿下了印度国内的数字流媒体版权，还一并包揽了澳大利亚、新西兰、英国和南非等传统板球国家的全渠道（电视及流媒体）版权。 - **美国市场的微不足道**：印度时代集团旗下的 Times Internet 仅花费 2,600 万美元购得中东版权、3,300 万美元购得美国市场 5 年版权；相较于全盘 62 亿美元的蛋糕，美国版权的占比小得惊人。 - **美国观赛体验吐槽**：Ben 提到自己在非赛季期间曾想在美国使用 Times Internet 旗下的 Willow TV 观看 IPL 比赛录像，但其网站体验极其低劣，连一场完整的比赛录播都找不到，感叹“3,300 万美元显然没能撑起一个好用的网站”。 ### [03:13:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=11630s) 联赛年入 15 亿美元底气：单场版权费仅次于 NFL 除了版权之外，IPL 的商业赞助体系也在 2024 年初迎来了又一次跃升。印度本土巨头塔塔集团（Tata）以每年 6,000 万美元、5 年总计 3 亿美元的天价，重新锁定了 IPL 整个联赛的冠名赞助商席位。至此，联赛中央层面的财务模型变得极其清晰：每年来自媒体版权的保底收入约为 12.5 亿美元，加上塔塔牵头的 1.5 亿至 2 亿美元中央赞助收入，IPL 联盟每年在中心层面锁定的无风险、轻资产现金流就高达 15 亿美元左右。正因如此，资本市场给 IPL 整个联盟开出了 160 亿美元的最新估值，孟买印第安人队等豪门估值达到 13 亿美元，全联盟平均每支球队的估值也已跨入 10 亿美元门槛。 在收入构成上，IPL 是一门不折不扣的“电视内容生意”。来自中央媒体版权与赞助的收入占据了总收入的约 85%，而各支俱乐部自营的门票、球场 VIP 包厢套房以及本地赞助等本土收入仅占约 15%。将二者相加，IPL 每年的总营收大致在 16 亿至 17 亿美元之间。然而最令人惊叹的指标在于“单场价值”：整整 16 至 17 亿美元的年度总盘子，仅仅依靠一个为期两个月、总共只有 74 场比赛的赛季撑起。 | 体育联盟 | 年度比赛总场次 (约) | 年度媒体版权总收入 (约) | 单场比赛媒体版权收入 (约) | 全球横向对比特征 | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **NFL** (美式橄榄球) | 285 场 | 140 亿美元 | 4,500 万 - 4,900 万美元 | 断层级第一，包含周日门票与 Red Zone 全平台版权 | | **IPL** (印度板球超级联赛) | 74 场 | 12.5 亿美元 | 1,600 万 - 1,700 万美元 | **全球单场收入第二**，单场价值追平并略超英超 | | **EPL** (英格兰足球超级联赛) | 380 场 | 约 60 亿美元 | 1,500 万 - 1,600 万美元 | 单场收入位居世界前三，场次远多于 IPL | | **MLB** (美国职业棒球大联盟) | 2,400+ 场 | 约 20 亿美元 | 100 万美元以下 | 依靠漫长赛季和巨量场次堆砌总营收 | Ben 梳理了主流体育联盟的所有转播协议后指出，虽然外界普遍宣传“IPL 单场版权费超越英超、位列全球第二”，但排在第一的 NFL 实际上展现出了降维打击般的垄断优势。NFL 汇集了 ESPN/ABC、Fox、CBS、NBC、Amazon、YouTube、Netflix、Peacock 以及 NFL Network 等几乎所有主流传媒巨头的支票，以 285 场常规赛及季后赛吸纳了每年高达 140 亿美元的转播费，换算下来单场转播收入在 4,500 万至 4,900 万美元之间，是 IPL 和英超（单场约 1,500 万至 1,700 万美元）的三倍之多。即便如此，对于一个仅仅拥有 17 年历史、仅有 10 支球队、一年只打 74 场比赛的年轻联赛来说，IPL 年入近 17 亿美元、单场转播价值傲视全球绝大多数百年联盟的表现，依然堪称现代体育商业史上的奇迹。 ### [03:18:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=11902s) 单场转播价值对比与球队估值维度 如果单纯从每场比赛的媒体转播权价值（per-match basis）来看，IPL 已经稳居全球第二，仅次于美国的 NFL，将其他大多数顶级体育联盟远远甩在身后。英超（English Premier League）勉强能与之一争高下，而排在后面的 NBA 每场转播收益约为 530 万美元，仅有板球或英超的三分之一左右；德甲（Bundesliga）与西甲（La Liga）的单场转播收入同样在 500 万美元上下浮动；至于 MLB 仅有 170 万美元，NHL 为 80 万美元，MLS 则只有 50 万美元。在美国传统所谓的“四大职业联盟”中，就单场转播收入而言，实质上是“NFL 傲视群雄，其他联盟望尘莫及”。 然而，单场比赛的吸金能力虽然从广告投放、场地单位租赁经济效益等角度看十分亮眼，但对于一支球队的老板来说，真正重要的并非每场比赛产生了多少媒体转播收益，而是整个商业帝国的绝对经济体量。老板们根本不在乎赛季一共打多少场比赛，核心诉求在于自己手中的特许经营权（Franchise）究竟价值几何，以及围绕这支球队能构建起多大的商业生态。从整体绝对价值来看，目前估值约 160 亿美元的 IPL 仅为 NFL 的十分之一左右。 更具实际意义的对比维度是球队的交易估值。目前 IPL 球队的平均估值已经达到 10 亿美元门槛。虽然相较于如今动辄五六十亿乃至七十亿美元的 NBA 球队仍有差距（史蒂夫·鲍尔默在 2014 年收购快船队时也才花了 20 亿美元），但考虑到 IPL 仅仅诞生了 16 到 17 年，能够如此迅速地跻身“十亿美元俱乐部”令人惊叹。值得注意的是，这些球队是在每笔中央收入入账前就先被印度板球控球委员会（BCCI）硬生生切走一半的情况下拿到这一估值的。如果 BCCI 不拿走这 50% 的收入分成，这些球队的估值完全可能轻松翻倍达到 20 亿美元，尽管届时球队也需要承担更多像球员梯队青训和自建维护球场等高昂的重资产成本。 - **各大联赛单场媒体版权收入横向对比：** - **NFL**：稳居全球第一。 - **IPL**：位列全球第二。 - **英超（EPL）**：接近 IPL 规模。 - **NBA / 德甲 / 西甲**：约 500 万至 530 万美元/场。 - **MLB**：约 170 万美元/场。 - **NHL**：约 80 万美元/场。 - **MLS**：约 50 万美元/场。 --- ### [03:21:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=12064s) 惊人的财务模型：高额EBITDA与经营杠杆 从估值倍数的财务报表角度切入，IPL 球队展现出许多传统职业球队难以企及的盈利结构。尽管由于非上市公司缺乏公开财报，但可以合理推断，在扣除 BCCI 抽成并计入本地赞助等衍生收益后，一支平均水平的 IPL 球队年营业收入大约在 7,000 万至 8,000 万美元之间。令人惊异的是其成本结构：整支球队的工资帽（Salary Cap）上限仅有 1,700 万美元，球队无须背负沉重的场馆资产与维护费用，除了早年加盟时向 BCCI 分期偿还的特许经营费债务之外，日常营运成本极低。 这种结构与 NFL 形成了鲜明对照。虽然 BCCI 抽走 50% 中央收入如同一只无形的“沉重枷锁”，但球队不必像 NFL 那样将 50% 的收入硬性分给球员，也没有球场基建带来的庞大重资产负担与财务风险。粗略核算下来，一支 IPL 球队在扣税前的净利润（考虑到几乎没有大额折旧与摊销，基本等同于 EBITDA）可以达到约 5,000 万美元。这意味着一支年收入 8,000 万美元的俱乐部，其 EBITDA 利润率竟然高达 60% 至 65%。 随着媒体版权每五年迎来一次爆发式的飞跃，这种无与伦比的经营杠杆（operating leverage）让几乎所有新增收入都直奔净利润而去。球员合同成本的增长受到严格压制，远落后于版权收入的增长斜率。在早期的版权周期里，球队勉强盈亏平衡；后来进入相对盈利阶段；而随着新一轮媒体周期启动，球队已经变得极其赚钱。按照 10 亿美元估值计算，对应约 20 倍 EBITDA 或 12 倍营收。与欧美许多仅靠“稀缺性资产溢价”（Asset Scarcity Value）推高估值、账面甚至长期亏损的传统球队不同，IPL 球队已经是一门拥有扎实基本面和高额利润现金流的优质投资标的。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL 球队财务流向与盈利结构 accDescr: 展示 IPL 球队从总收入到高额 EBITDA 的简明流向图 subgraph Revenue["总收入流向 (约 7,000万 - 8,000万美元)"] direction TB A["BCCI 分成后中央版权收入 + 本地赞助"] end subgraph Costs["极轻资产结构与刚性成本"] direction TB B["球员薪酬成本<br>(工资帽严格限制在约 1,700万美元)"] C["场馆与青训成本<br>(基本为零 / 由各州或BCCI承担)"] D["日常运营与特许费债务服务"] end subgraph Profit["最终盈利表现"] direction TB E["EBITDA 净利：约 5,000万美元<br>(EBITDA 利润率高达 60% - 65%)"] end A --> B A --> C A --> D B & C & D --> E ``` --- ### [03:23:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=12229s) 估值三要素与“超牛市”设想（Mega-Bull Case） 基于这一扎实的财务基本面，节目重新引入了经典的“牛市、熊市与超牛市”（Bull, Bear, and Mega-Bull Case）分析框架。这里的核心终极命题在于：在未来的发展周期中，IPL 是否存在一条现实可行的路径，将其收入与经济影响力实现 10 倍（10x）扩张，在总营收和商业体量上彻底追平甚至超越 NFL，加冕为全球无可争议的第一大体育联盟？ 评估任何资产的核心逻辑始终在于对未来的底层假设，判断估值高低必须拆解驱动未来盈利的核心变量。对于 IPL 球队的损益表而言，未来有三大核心杠杆： 1. **媒体版权能否维持高增长复合速率**：根据 Worldly Partners 机构 Arvin Navaratnam 的详尽测算，从 2008 年初创期每年约 1 亿美元的版权规模，到 2023 年飙升至每年 12 亿美元，IPL 媒体版权过去实现了惊人的 18% 复合年均增长率（CAGR）。未来它能否继续维持这种高速扩张？ 2. **BCCI 50% 的分账比例是否恒定**：目前 BCCI 永久拿走五成中央收入，未来是否有潜在力量或博弈打破这一现状，这一杠杆的微调将对球队现金流带来巨大摆动。 3. **球员薪资占营收比例是否会失控上升**：当前球员薪资仅占球队总收入的 12% 至 14% 左右。未来是否存在某种机制迫使工资帽增长与联盟顶层收入挂钩，还是这一比例会继续维持甚至进一步收缩？对球队老板而言，保持这一超低比例自然是最理想的暴利状态。 --- ### [03:26:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=12387s) 球员议价权的缺失与BCCI的绝对控制 深入探究第三大杠杆（球员成本）时，会发现其与 BCCI 的绝对统治力紧密捆绑。在 IPL 体系中，根本不存在任何类似 NFLPA（NFL球员工会）或 MLBPA（MLB球员工会）那样具有强大集体谈判权的工会组织。节目中讽刺地指出，印度最高法院此前虽然裁定必须成立板球工会，但最终成立的竟然是一个“退役球员工会”——本质上是一群领取 BCCI 养老金的退休人员组成的协会，现役球员被明文禁止参与其中，现役球员因此完全丧失了集体发声与劳资谈判的制度阵地。 现役球员不仅缺乏博弈筹码，而且在经济与职业生涯上被牢牢锁死在现行体系内： - **无法割舍的财富与地位**：IPL 提供了改变家族命运的财富、至高无上的名望与少年时代的梦想，没有任何球员会选择主动罢赛对抗。 - **出国禁令的大棒**：BCCI 规定，任何现役印度球员若擅自出战海外商业板球联赛，将直接被剥夺代表印度国家队参赛的资格。 - **收入定价权的彻底垄断**：无论是印度国家队的薪资，还是通过设定 IPL 工资帽与拍卖奖金池上限（Auction Purse），BCCI 全面掌控了所有本国顶级球员的收入天花板。 - **全球板球资本的协同垄断**：随着南非联赛（SA20）、美国大联盟板球（MLC）等新兴 T20 联赛在全球兴起，IPL 的各大球队老板纷纷出海收购或参股这些新兴联赛的球队特许权。资本版图的跨国联合使得这批老板在全球范围内构筑起了严密的垄断同盟，球员即便放眼全球赛场，也依然是在同一批资方的掌控之下。 ### [03:28:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=12486s) 估值前置背景：BCCI 的绝对控制权与无工会红利 在深入推演 IPL（印度板球超级联赛）未来的商业估值之前，必须先明确其所依托的制度土壤与权力格局。与北美职业体育联盟不同，IPL 拥有极其独特的底层控制力：联赛不会允许成立球员工会，各方也不会私自哄抬薪资，而这种默契甚至直接辐射到国际板球理事会（ICC）层面。实际上，全球板球治理机构和各支球队在某种程度上都是 BCCI（印度板球控制委员会）与 IPL 的“附庸”。整个商业帝国的半壁江山，牢牢掌握在一个具有准政府监管职能的实体手中。这种高度集权、无劳工对抗风险、薪资帽严格受控的特殊环境，为后续的所有商业推演提供了最稳定的制度底色。 ### [03:28:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=12527s) 牛市逻辑一：人口红利与印度广告市场的指数级爆发 如果从投资人的视角来看待 IPL 未来的潜在牛市逻辑（Bull Case），最核心也是最大的推手莫过于“人口红利所驱动的转播版权费扩张”。即便不考虑任何外围因素，仅仅依托印度本土中产阶级的持续扩张及其相对购买力的提升，就足以释放出惊人的增长动能： 1. **广告大盘的十倍跃进**：2007 年 IPL 创立之初，印度全社会广告市场规模仅有约 20 亿美元左右；而到今天，这一数字已激增至 200 亿美元，在过去 17 年间翻了整整 10 倍，并且目前仍保持着每年 6% 至 7% 的稳健年化增速。 2. **商业逻辑的底层闭环**：球队估值挂钩转播权收入，转播机构愿出高价的前提是广告商能赚回本金，而广告投放的获客成本（CAC）必须由具备可支配收入、有实际消费能力的印度中产阶级来支撑。 3. **与 NFL 发展天花板的鲜明对比**： - **NFL 的受众天花板（TAM）**：美式橄榄球的核心受众高度局限于美国本土，即便算上加拿大也极为有限，全球潜在触达人口满打满算至多 5 亿人。NFL 多年来一直试图拓展海外市场，但始终收效甚微；而美国广告大盘虽然高达 4500 亿美元，但自身基数已是庞然巨物，增长空间受限。 - **IPL 的增量潜力**：印度中产阶级在 1995 年至 2021 年间的年化增速高达 6.3%，未来 10 至 20 年有望再翻一番；同时印度人均 GDP 正以每年约 10% 的速度狂飙，广告大盘有望长期同步甚至跑赢这一增速。 如果印度国内广告市场在未来 20 年持续维持年化 6% 到 7% 的复利增长，其整体体量将再扩大 10 倍，届时 IPL 的单季版权收入即可达到 120 亿美元，一举追平甚至超越当今 NFL 的规模。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: IPL 与 NFL 增长驱动模型对比 accDescr: 对比 NFL 的高基数饱和市场与 IPL 由人口中产化及广告大盘爆发驱动的长期增长路径。 subgraph NFL["NFL 增长瓶颈"] A["受众 TAM 见顶 (约 5 亿人)"] --> B["海外拓展缓慢"] B --> C["高度依赖人均消费力微幅提升"] end subgraph IPL["IPL 核心增长杠杆"] D["人均 GDP 保持 ~10% 增长"] --> E["中产阶级规模与购买力双翻倍"] E --> F["广告大盘从 200 亿向数千亿美元演进"] F --> G["转播权价值向 120 亿美元看齐"] end ``` ### [03:33:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=12811s) 牛市逻辑二：赛事库存扩张——赛程拉长、扩军与“第二赛季窗口” 仅靠宏观广告大盘的增长，保守打个折算作 5 倍杠杆，那么另一个显而易见的 2 倍乘数，则来自于 IPL 自身赛事库存（Inventory）的成倍释放。目前的 IPL 赛制仍是全球各大顶级职业联盟中最短暂的——整个赛季仅有短短 8 周，这是早期为了配合繁重的国际板球巡回赛日程所妥协的结果。然而，伴随联赛话语权不断凌驾于传统国际赛事之上，扩充比赛场次已成为确定性极高的大趋势： - **现有赛程拉长**：打破现有的 8 周时间窗口，让现有俱乐部在更长的跨度内进行更多轮次的交锋。 - **联盟扩军增加球队**：无论从印度的地理幅员还是人口规模来看，仅容纳 10 支球队都显得过于狭窄，未来增设至少两支新球队已是板上钉钉。 - **激进的“第二赛季窗口”设想**：业内目前甚至在研讨开辟第二个 IPL 独立时间窗口的可行性——例如每年 3 月至 5 月照常进行常规赛上半程，夏秋季让位给国际赛历，年底再重新集结打季后赛。虽然这种割裂的赛程在媒体转播和叙事连贯性上存在巨大挑战，甚至显得有些“反高潮”，但鉴于 IPL 团队历来在包装娱乐产品上的创新能力，这仍是一张不可忽视的商业底牌。 更为关键的是，IPL 如今已然成为印度的“国家级标杆企业”（National Champion）。不仅政府有极强的意愿将其打造成印度的超级门面，而且信实工业（Reliance Industries）及其背后的安巴尼家族更是将集团命脉与之深度绑定。信实既是全印度最大的电信运营商（Jio），又是最大的综合跨国财团与最大广告主，手里还握着顶级球队（孟买印度人）并主导着数字流媒体版权。有如此巨鳄托底，IPL 无论在本土还是全球扩张中都拥有极高的容错率。 ### [03:36:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13003s) 牛市逻辑三：球场基建与本地商业化——尚未挖掘的巨大金矿 除了转播权和赞助之外，IPL 至今仍处在极其原始状态的当属球场物理资产与本地线下收入（Local Revenue）。当前的球场收入在各队的损益表中几乎可以忽略不计： - **场馆现状犹如 20 世纪 70 年代的美国**：现在的 IPL 比赛场地并不算“烂”，不是尘土飞扬的泥巴地，但充其量只相当于美国 70 年代的老式多功能体育场；它们与 NBA 金州勇士队耗资数十亿美元打造的大通中心（Chase Center），或是明尼苏达维京人队的美国合众银行体育场（U.S. Bank Stadium）等现代宏伟宫殿有着天壤之别。 - **主场场次过少限制了重资产投资**：由于目前每个赛季每支球队仅有区区 7 场主场比赛，如果让球队斥巨资买地自建球场，在财务投资回报率（ROI）上完全无法自洽。 - **成熟玩法的全面复制空间**：一旦联赛扩军、赛程拉长，球场基础设施升级将带来海量的“低垂之果”。诸如欧美职业体育成熟的贵宾豪华包厢（Luxury Suites）、个人座位许可权（PSL）、沉浸式球迷互动体验、餐饮升级以及周边商业综合体地产开发（Mixed-use Real Estate），都能在印度的现代化进程中逐一落地变现。 ### [03:38:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13087s) 本地商业化潜力与“杰里·琼斯”模式 节目的讨论从 IPL 巨大的线下商业潜力切入。两位主持人打趣道，把购物中心、电影院和宝莱坞娱乐全面整合进球场生态的想法，听起来简直就像达拉斯牛仔队的老板杰里·琼斯（Jerry Jones）附体——“只要把杰里·琼斯派到印度去，这事就成了”。目前，IPL 各支球队的收入结构高度失衡，中央统一版权和赞助分配占到了 85%，而各队自身的本地收入仅占 15% 左右。相比之下，NFL 顶尖球队的本地收入占比通常在 35% 到 40% 之间。 如果 IPL 能够逐步向 NFL 的收入模型靠拢，将本地门票、球场周边综合开发和区域赞助收入大幅拉高，单凭这一项就能为联盟带来数亿美元的额外现金流。主持人指出，即使媒体版权费用仅仅追平 NFL，加上本地收入渠道的补齐，整个 IPL 联盟的吸金能力也将彻底与 NFL 平起平坐。最令人震惊的是，这一切宏伟构想甚至还没有考虑海外市场，完全仅仅建立在印度本土国内市场的基础之上。 - **收入结构对比**：目前 IPL 球队收入为 15% 本地、85% 中央；NFL 强队本地收入占比通常达 35% 至 40%。 - **对标潜力**：若本地收入与版权收入双双达到 NFL 比例，IPL 将在纯本土维度上完成对 NFL 商业规模的追平。 --- ### [03:38:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13130s) 中东资本入局：LIV 式威胁与基建机遇 这就引出了决定 IPL 未来走向的两大核心变数之一：来自沙特阿拉伯及中东主权财富基金的庞大资本。中东资本对入局板球表现出了极其狂热的兴趣。2023 年甚至有媒体报道称，沙特方面试图以 300 亿美元的估值入股 IPL，这一数字比业界给出最乐观的估值还要翻倍；而刚刚落下帷幕的 IPL 超级拍卖会（Mega Auction），举办地正是沙特阿拉伯。 主持人分析，中东资本介入是一把兼具威胁与机遇的“胡萝卜加大棒”： ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 中东资本介入IPL的双刃剑路径 accDescr: 展示沙特资本对IPL潜在的LIV式分裂威胁与基础设施重资产投资机遇 subgraph Threat ["威胁路径：LIV 式分裂风险"] T1["中东无限资本"] --> T2["另立山头自建独立联赛"] T2 --> T3["高薪挖角全球顶级球员"] T3 --> T4{"BCCI 铁腕反制"} T4 -- "禁止印度国手参赛/封杀本土市场" --> T5["商业号召力受挫/难以完全实现"] end subgraph Opportunity ["机遇路径：超级基建投资（更可能实现）"] O1["沙特 PIF 等主权基金"] --> O2["联合 BCCI/IPL 达成战略协议"] O2 --> O3["注资百亿美元实体基础设施"] O3 --> O4["现代化球场、周边商业综合体与地产零售"] O4 --> O5["推动各队摆脱纯轻资产模式，锁定长期线下现金流"] end ``` 威胁在于类似高尔夫领域“LIV Golf”分裂 PGA 巡回赛的先例。当年反叛联赛 ICL 没能掀翻体制，是因为他们没有沙特王国那种无穷无尽的金库；如果沙特绕过国际板球理事会（ICC）和印度板球总会（BCCI），直接用天价薪酬挖走全球球星自立门户，理论上完全行得通。但主持人认为这种极端情况不太可能发生，因为 BCCI 握有最具威慑力的“大铁锤”——一旦印度本土球员胆敢脱离体制，将直接被终身封杀于国家队及印度本土比赛之外。失去印度本土市场与明星，任何自建联赛的商业价值都将大打折扣。 因此，更为现实和双赢的路径是双方达成战略妥协。沙特公共投资基金（PIF）等主权基金迫切需要体量庞大的实体资产承载巨量资金，而印度正处于体育场馆、周边零售、商业地产等实物基础设施大升级的关口。这正好回答了一个关键问题：“如果百亿美元资本突然砸向仅仅 10 支球队，他们到底该拿这笔钱去干什么？”答案是：中东资金不仅是投资联盟本身，更是投资整个印度体育的物理地产生态。 --- ### [03:41:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13309s) 常规牛市假说：三十年内比肩 NFL 的底气 这构成了 IPL 极具说服力的“常规牛市假说”（Bull Case）。主持人坦言，在刚开始做这期节目调研时，如果有人断言“IPL 在十到二十年内将成长为与 NFL 一样庞大的商业帝国”，他肯定会觉得这不可思议。然而，在向多位体育行业高管及球队核心管理层进行实质核验后，得到的行业内反馈却惊人一致：“这绝不是疯话，这完全有可能发生。” - **发展速度跨度**：一个仅诞生了 17 年的年轻联赛，极有可能在成立 30 周年之际追平拥有上百年积淀的 NFL。 - **三大超级时代红利**： 1. 印度无可比拟的人口红利与平均年龄结构。 2. 极速膨胀、消费力爆发的印度中产阶级浪潮。 3. 体育全球化浪潮以及印度整体现代化建设。 - **商业模式演变**：拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）在创办初期确立的“轻资产、零债务、不持有球场”模式，如今被证明只是特定发展阶段的权宜之计，随着重资产基础设施的逐步跟进，长期增值空间将被进一步打开。 --- ### [03:43:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13396s) 熊市风险（一）：在印度做生意的制度信任挑战 讨论随即转向“熊市风险”（Bear Case）。首先摆在所有人面前的，是在印度经商的系统性环境挑战。任何在印度进行过直接投资的投资者都深有感触：营商环境中的“低信任度”（Low Trust Environment）是始终绕不开的痛点。 尽管过去几年印度在这方面取得了实质性的进步，声誉正在好转，海外直接投资（FDI）与全球机构资本也以前所未有的规模涌入 IPL 和印度本土，但想要支撑起一个 NFL 级别的商业体，就必须拥有一套与 NFL 等量齐观的法治与制度信任基石。一旦改革进程出现倒退或出现系统性制度反复，将对联盟的高估值逻辑造成致命打击。 --- ### [03:44:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13445s) 熊市风险（二）：信实与迪士尼合并与转播权单极化危机 熊市逻辑中最具杀伤力、也最立竿见影的内部风险，来自于刚刚在 2024 年 11 月尘埃落定的超级巨震：穆克什·安巴尼旗下的 Viacom18（信实工业）与 Star Disney 正式达成了价值 85 亿美元的媒体业务合并。 这一事件彻底摧毁了过去十几年推动转播权拍卖疯狂飙升的“双雄竞价格局”。以往有两家巨头在传统电视和流媒体领域针锋相对，如今全印最具实力的两大买家合二为一，变成了唯一的超级独家买家。下一轮版权拍卖的年均成本预计将高达 15 亿至 20 亿美元，如果只有一个买家坐在牌桌前，天价竞标该如何维持？ ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 印度媒体版权竞争格局变化与破局关键 accDescr: 展现信实与迪士尼合并造成的买方垄断，以及硅谷科技巨头潜在的制衡角色 subgraph Past ["过往竞价格局（双雄争霸）"] V18["Viacom18 (Reliance)"] <--> SD["Star Disney"] end subgraph Present ["2024年11月合并后（85亿美元交易）"] M["合并后超大型媒体实体\n(单极垄断买家)"] end subgraph FutureCheck ["未来竞标能否成立的唯一指望：硅谷巨头"] G["Google / YouTube\n(印度为其全球第一大用户国)"] M2["Meta\n(WhatsApp & IG 印度均为全球第一)"] end Past --> Present Present -. "缺乏国内对手压低出价".-> Risk["版权价格承压下挫"] FutureCheck -. "必须在未来5年入局竞标".-> Present ``` 主持人指出，打破这一死局的唯一希望在于硅谷科技巨头（Big Tech）： - **Google / YouTube**：早在 2010 年就曾与 IPL 签署过媒体合作协议。极其关键的数据是，印度已经超越美国，成为 **YouTube 全球用户规模第一大国**。 - **Meta**：曾在 2017 年重金竞标数字转播权但遗憾落败。更重要的是，印度目前是 **WhatsApp 和 Instagram 全球用户数量最多的国家**。 对 Google 和 Meta 而言，印度绝非普通海外市场，而是核心基本盘。如果转播权定价在下一轮因缺乏竞争而出现低估，他们具备充沛的资金与极强的战略动机重返竞标池。 此外，估值敏感度同样暗藏巨大的财务雷区。Viacom18 在上轮竞标中为数字转播权豪掷 31 亿美元，其背后的财务模型对流媒体的增长速度和商业变现效率有着极其严苛的要求。在有限的 5 年版权周期内，如果变现预期比计划晚了两年兑现，巨额买断费就会瞬间“跌入水下”（Underwater），这反过来将彻底压低下一轮版权周期的整体估值。 --- ### [03:47:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13650s) 超级牛市假说前瞻：板球的全球化破圈 在梳理完常规牛市与悲观风险之后，主持人抛出了全集最具颠覆性的终极推演——“超级牛市假说”（Mega Bull Case）。 这不再局限于印度次大陆以及英联邦等传统板球国家，而是设想这项运动在文化和商业上彻底突破既有边界：让原本对板球完全漠不关心的美国、甚至中国以及全球其他主流体育消费市场，全面沉浸到这项赛事带来的狂欢之中。主持人随即展开了对这一宏伟愿景的深入剖析。 ### [03:47:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13672s) 板球进入美国的最大阻碍与本土联赛的破局尝试 两位主持人切入了一个充满争议与想象力的话题：美国观众究竟有没有可能真正开始收看 IPL（印度板球超级联赛）？阻碍这一趋势的最大物理障碍是时区差异。印度与美国之间存在长达 12 至 13 个小时的时差——如果印度在晚上 8:00 开打黄金档比赛，换算成美国西海岸时间就是清晨 7:30。相比之下，英格兰与印度的时差仅为 5 个小时，英国人可以舒舒服服地在周末下午将其作为日场比赛观赏，而逼迫美国体育迷在清晨早起看球显然是一件极难推广的事情。 这种时区劣势正是发展美国本土板球联赛——美国板球大联盟（Major League Cricket, 简称 MLC）的核心论点。Ben 提到他曾与微软前高管、现任 Madrona 合伙人的 S. Somasegar（Soma）进行过深入交流。Soma 与微软 CEO 萨蒂亚·纳德拉（Satya Nadella）共同拥有西雅图海狼队（Seattle Orcas）这支 MLC 球队。Soma 认为，在美国推广板球绝不可能一蹴而就，指望美国人直接狂热收看远在印度的 IPL 是不切实际的；真正的路径必须是在美国本土，通过基层的草根方式、培养本土球员，一步一个脚印地建立属于美国的板球受众基础。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Expansion Paths for Cricket in America accDescr: Diagram contrasting grassroots domestic development and direct IPL export into the US market. subgraph Grassroots["草根路线 (MLC)"] A["本土联赛 (MLC)"] --> B["培养本地球迷"] B --> C["2028 洛杉矶奥运会引爆"] end subgraph DirectImport["IPL 直接出海"] D["调整赛程时区"] --> E["美国海外赛 (NFL模式)"] E --> F["全球泛体育观众"] end ``` - **时差鸿沟**：印度晚间 8:00 黄金档对应美国西海岸早晨 7:30，成为吸引美国直播观众的最大天然屏障。 - **MLC 核心逻辑**：通过 Satya Nadella 和 S. Somasegar 等科技领袖投资的本土联赛，以草根慢工出细活的方式在本土培育粉丝社群。 --- ### [03:49:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13758s) 棒球停滞危机、2028 洛杉矶奥运会与板球的爆发窗口 抛开时区难题，促使板球在美国爆发的最大外部催化剂即将到来：2028 年洛杉矶奥运会。这是自 1900 年巴黎奥运会之后，时隔一百多年板球（以 T20 赛制形式）重返现代奥运会舞台。届时在美国本土上演的奥运会，将汇聚巨大的商业利益与全球媒体关注，成为推广板球的超级杠杆。 与此同时，美国传统体育基石之一的职业棒球大联盟（MLB）正陷入明显的停滞与结构性危机。虽然 MLB 推行了投球计时钟（Pitch Clock）并卓有成效地提升了观赛流畅度，且其旗下的流媒体服务 MLB.tv 与 BAMTech 堪称技术典范，但整个棒球体制深陷泥潭： 1. **利益集团阻挠革新**：各支豪门球队锁定了长期的本地媒体转播合同，且由于没有强硬的硬工资帽和严格的竞技平衡机制，富裕球队誓死反对任何颠覆性的制度改革。 2. **商业模型过时**：单赛季 162 场常规赛的臃肿结构是建立在百年前“靠球场门票获利”的时代，根本无法适应现代流媒体和电视转播的要求。 3. **年轻人流失**：棒球在年轻一代中的兴趣衰竭速度，正如多年前英格兰板球陷入绝境时的景象——当年英格兰正是因为赛制冗长、年轻人退场，才被迫发明了节奏紧凑的 T20 赛制。 而板球已经通过 T20 和 IPL 成功破茧成蝶，手握成熟、快节奏、高度工程化的娱乐产品模型。当美国棒球出现市场真空时，经过市场检验的 T20 板球恰好拥有了绝佳的切入契机。 --- ### [03:52:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=13923s) 印度裔精英的文化影响力与板球的“反向帝国主义” 除了产品本身的高度观赏性，全美约 500 万印度裔群体所展现的非凡社会影响力也是板球立足美国的关键底气。尽管 500 万人在全美总人口中占比不算大，但印度裔目前在美国正处于权力和文化影响力的巅峰： - **商业与科技版图**：由 Satya Nadella（微软）、Sundar Pichai（Alphabet/Google）、Shantanu Narayen（Adobe）、Neal Mohan（YouTube）等印度裔掌舵的巨头企业，掌控了美股相当惊人的市值权重；在科技重塑全球文化的当下，这一群体拥有巨大的资源调配力。 - **文娱与好莱坞**：印度裔创作者和一线明星在好莱坞与流行文化中的声量正在迅速攀升。 - **政治领域**：从副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）、前联合国大使妮基·黑利（Nikki Haley）到副总统夫人乌莎·万斯（Usha Vance），印度裔政治精英正在美国政坛顶层扮演举足轻重的角色。 目前美国本土已经拥有约 2000 万板球关注者。谈及 IPL 对全球市场的渗透，主持人打趣地称这是一种历史的奇妙轮回——当年是英国的帝国主义扩张将板球带到了印度，如今却是印度凭借自身的经济崛起和联赛资本，以板球为媒介向全球输出“反向文化帝国主义”。在 MLC 目前的 6 支球队中，有 4 支球队拥有 IPL 资本背景；南非 T20 联赛的各支球队也几乎被 IPL 财团全盘包揽。全球主流联赛中，似乎只有与 IPL 同期启动的澳洲巨星联赛（Big Bash League）尚未被 IPL 资本渗透。 主持人们还设想了 IPL 进一步打开美国市场的狂野方案：要么效仿 NFL 前往海外举办常规赛的做法，直接把比赛搬到美国体育场；要么利用 IPL 极短的赛程优势，在秋冬季节组织相同的明星阵容与团队，在北美各大城市打第二窗口期锦标赛，甚至打造类似 MLB“美联 vs 国联”的跨洋季后赛对抗。 --- ### [03:56:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=14165s) IP 的终极飞轮：非比赛内容与下一个《极速求生》 在 IPL 的所有潜在爆发路径中，围绕知识产权（IP）展开的“非比赛衍生内容”（Non-game media）与纪录片流媒体被视为最大的杀手锏。就像一级方程式赛车凭借 Netflix 纪录片《一级方程式：极速求生》（F1: Drive to Survive）在美国彻底破圈、高尔夫凭借《全力挥杆》（Full Swing）吸纳新观众一样，高质量的叙事纪录片能够超越比赛直播本身，在非板球核心国家创造奇迹。 其实早在 2019 年，Netflix 就曾推出过一部讲述 IPL 的高规格纪录片《板球热潮：孟买印度人》（Cricket Fever: Mumbai Indians）。主持人大卫坦言，自己身上虽然流淌着英国血统，原本就对板球略有关注，但真正让他彻底被 IPL 震撼、领略到这一联赛庞大规模的正是这部片子。可惜的是，目前该片已从 Netflix 下架。 在大卫看来，《Cricket Fever》存在一个先天缺陷——它仅仅跟拍了孟买印度人（Mumbai Indians）这一支豪门球队，而未能像《极速求生》那样站在全联盟的宏观视角，全景式展现各俱乐部老板、球员与球队之间的残酷竞争与戏剧冲突。如果未来有制作团队能够对标《极速求生》的制作规格，围绕整个 IPL 打造涵盖全联盟恩怨情仇、每年更新的年度纪录片季播剧，IPL 将会在全球范围内引发难以想象的破圈风暴。 ### [03:57:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=14247s) 印度顶流：板球巨星的恐怖号召力与博彩潜能 整个 IPL 的赛制结构本身就像是一部精心编排的肥皂剧，如果再围绕这部肥皂剧去制作衍生纪录片或剧集，势必会引爆收视。曾经有人以为宝莱坞（Bollywood）明星是印度最耀眼的存在，但现实数据令人咋舌：宝莱坞顶级巨星沙·鲁克·罕（Shah Rukh Khan）在 Instagram 上拥有约 4800 万粉丝，这在演艺界已是顶流；然而与印度的板球运动员相比，这只能算“九牛一毛”（a pittance）。世界顶级板球巨星维拉·哥利（Virat Kohli）在 Instagram 上拥有高达 2.7 亿粉丝，这一体量几乎与泰勒·斯威夫特（Taylor Swift）不相上下。在印度，板球运动员才是真正意义上的全民顶流偶像。 令人惊叹的是哥利社交媒体的纯商业化运作：翻看他最近的 33 条 Instagram 帖子，每一条都是商业推广合作，全部是他拿着各类产品代言的照片。这引发了主播们的讨论：究竟是印度受众对广告植入的容忍度远高于美国观众，还是哥利已经把个人账号的发布权限全盘交给了商业经纪人？无论如何，一个拥有 2.7 亿粉的超级账号竟然能纯靠发广告生存，反向印证了粉丝对他的狂热需求与他不可思议的影响力。而且在 IPL 赛季期间，根据赛事版权协议，各球队拥有球员在赛季内的肖像与商业 IP 运营权，甚至经常能看到同一支球队的明星球员连续出现在同一场比赛的连环广告中。 除了衍生剧集与球员 IP，另一个蕴含着巨大商业潜力的领域是“体育博彩”（Gambling）。如果真正的博彩在印度合法化，那将是 IPL 的“超级牛市情景”（mega mega bull case）。目前，板球梦幻体育（Fantasy Sports）在印度正蓬勃发展，由于在法律上被政府界定为“基于技巧的游戏”（game of skill）而非纯靠运气的赌博（game of luck），相关平台得以合规运营。 - **Dream 11 的商业体量**：作为印度板球界的 DraftKings，Dream 11（以每队 11 名球员得名）拥有超过 2 亿注册用户，公司估值高达 80 亿美元。 - **顶级资本加持**：纽约知名体育私募巨头 RedBird Capital（同时也是 IPL 球队拉贾斯坦皇家队的投资方）是 Dream 11 的重要机构投资者。 - **地下外围博彩规模**：目前海外庄家盘口每场 IPL 比赛的地下投注额就已高达 7.5 亿美元；一旦印度本土全面开放合法真钱博彩，将释放数以十亿美元计的恐怖收入增量。 --- ### [04:00:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=14432s) 商业权力法则（7 Powers）：被垄断的资源与飞轮效应 进入 Acquired 经典的“商业权力”（Power Playbook）分析环节。参考汉密尔顿·赫尔默（Hamilton Helmer）的《7 Powers》框架，评估企业如何获得持久超额回报。面对 IPL 这一早已没有势均力敌对手的“N of 1”存在，其最核心的壁垒无疑是**独占资源（Cornered Resource）**——也就是球员本身。 但一个关键疑问随之而来：全球板球观众约有 25 亿人（规模仅次于足球的世界第二大运动），而印度本土观众大约只占全球总数的 35% 左右。其余 65% 的球迷广泛分布在英国、澳大利亚、巴基斯坦、西印度群岛等地，且世界上最优秀的板球运动员并不全在印度。那么，为什么偏偏是 IPL 成功垄断了全球顶尖球员资源，而不是由其他国家率先孵化出超级联赛？ ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL 垄断球员资源与飞轮聚合效应 accDescr: 展示 IPL 如何凭借印度本土庞大受众和资金优势，形成对全球球员和联赛的虹吸与闭环 subgraph Launch["启动与引爆阶段"] A["印度本土 35% 集中球迷基数"] --> B["聚集印度本土明星球员"] B --> C["巨额赛事收入与商业赞助"] end subgraph Flywheel["全球虹吸飞轮"] C --> D["开出小国板协无法抗拒的天价薪酬"] D --> E["吸引全球顶尖外援 (如西印度群岛球星)"] E --> F["吞并海外 10%-15% 的细分受众市场"] end subgraph LockIn["最终壁垒成型"] F --> G["滚雪球占据全球 50%+ 绝对主流心智"] G --> H["出台排他禁令: 严禁印度球员参加海外联赛"] H --> I["形成牢不可破的独占资源与媒体版权护城河"] end Launch --> Flywheel Flywheel --> LockIn ``` 核心逻辑在于**引爆点与市场重心的不对称性**。虽然印度以外有超 10 亿球迷，但他们高度分散在各个国家。任何单一国家（无论英国还是澳大利亚）其本国受众与人才密度都无法与印度单一体量抗衡。IPL 从印度本土这 35% 的集中受众起步，当他们开始用远超国际比赛的薪酬招揽海外球星时，其他国家的防线便像多米诺骨牌一样坍塌。 典型案例是西印度群岛球星克里斯·盖尔（Chris Gayle）。西印度群岛板球董事会曾试图禁止他去打 IPL，但由于 IPL 提供的薪酬过于丰厚，球员的直接反应是：“那我干脆彻底退出国家队，专打 IPL，你们给的补贴连这零头都赶不上。”这就像沙特主权基金支持的 LIV Golf 颠覆传统高尔夫巡回赛一样——当金钱规模大到球员只需打几年就能实现几辈子财富自由时，旧体制的约束瞬间土崩瓦解。加上印度板协（BCCI）随即设立严苛规则：**禁止任何印度现役球员参加海外联赛**，这彻底锁死了印度球星的独占性，构筑了无法撼动的壁垒。 --- ### [04:04:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=14667s) 规模经济与海外衍生赛事“The Hundred” 除了独占资源，IPL 还在早期借用了 T20 对传统单日赛（ODI）的**逆向定位（Counterpositioning）**优势，并在媒体转播制作上构筑了极强的**规模经济（Scale Economies）**。如今 IPL 的电视制作水准、机位调度与视觉呈现，已逼近美国 NFL 周一橄榄球之夜（Monday Night Football）的工业化级别，这是其他缺乏巨额资本支持的联赛无法复制的。 随之引发的另一个商业思考是：IPL 赛季一年只打两个月，剩下的 10 个月世界板球视线相对分散，为什么没有其他海外联赛能趁虚而入，把顶尖球星召集起来卖出巨额转播权？ - **本土广告资金池缺失**：即便海外举办赛事，也无法吸引像印度本土那样密集的品牌赞助与广告预算，缺乏经济支撑。 - **资本向外渗透**：现实中反而演变为 IPL 资本的反向输出，通过投资海外联赛（如美国的 Major League Cricket，或英国的新赛事）来实现全年生态扩张。 节目最后提到了英国板球界的全新实验——**“The Hundred”板球百球赛**。这是继 Test（测试赛）、ODI（单日赛）、T20 之后的第四种主流板球赛制。比赛将每局投球数从 T20 的 120 球进一步压缩精简为 100 球，节奏更快、时间更短。这项英国新兴联赛凭借创新的赛制，正在吸引大量欧美超级跨界投资人的关注，并成功筹集了大约 10 亿美元的资金。 ### [04:06:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=14792s) 板球版图的向外扩张：The Hundred 与海外赛事的探索 关于英格兰板球超级联赛 The Hundred，对话中提到其球队估值虽然不及 IPL 队伍，但表现十分引人注目。The Hundred 是英格兰创办四年的短局制板球联赛。由于英国是板球的发源地之一，加之与印度仅有 5 小时的时差，在时间窗口和文化传播上有着极高的协同潜力。这自然引出了一个核心问题：能否在另一个国家、另一个时区复刻出像 IPL 那样的现象级赛事？ 然而，现实情况并非竞争对抗，而更像是一种资本渗透与融合。大量 IPL 特许经营权持有者直接投资入股了 The Hundred 的球队。因此，这不再仅仅是一场“异地能否复制 IPL”的独立挑战，而变成了 IPL 体系探索如何借助其他国家的现有联赛，为自身构建更大媒体与转播窗口的资本扩张路径。 - **The Hundred 概况**：创办仅 4 年的英格兰本土板球联赛。 - **协同优势**：英国与印度仅差 5 个时区，极为契合转播时间段。 - **资本动态**：多家 IPL 俱乐部老板直接入股 The Hundred 球队，体现了全球板球资产的 IPL 化。 --- ### [04:07:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=14841s) 商业模式颠覆：MLB 与 NBA 面临的长期隐患 针对“IPL 对传统板球的颠覆是否会在 MLB（美国职业棒球大联盟）或 NBA 上演”这一问题，讨论展现出了复杂的思考过程。起初人们很容易断言“100% 会发生”，但深入梳理 IPL 的诞生史后会发现，IPL 的崛起是特定“原始汤”（Primordial Soup）与孤例环境的产物。最不可复制的一点在于印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）对该运动在印度的绝对垄断与掌控力——BCCI 能够直接封杀并禁止本国球员参加其他外部联赛，而美国没有任何一个联盟拥有如此强大的行业控制权。 不过，美职棒与美职篮确实正在显现出类似板球改革前的危机苗头。以 NBA 为例，尽管联盟当前运转良好，但在观赛体验上存在致命痛点：常规赛过于漫长冗杂，许多球迷甚至包括主播自己（作为骑士队铁杆粉丝）在骑士打出联盟最佳战绩时都懒得看常规赛，因为比赛的前三节甚至前 95% 的赛程都缺乏紧迫感。虽然 NBA 拥有软工资帽和集中的媒体版权分成，情况优于 MLB，但要彻底根治，就必须削减比赛场次并确保球星上场。尴尬之处在于，削减比赛时长与追逐媒体版权费最大化背道而驰——“每少打一分钟篮球，就会少赚很多钱”。这或许不会立刻击垮 NBA，但会成为未来两任总裁必须解决的重大隐患。 相比之下，MLB 在衰退曲线上滑得更远，正面临年轻球迷与球员断层的代际危机。MLB 唯一的王牌在于国际化，日本和韩国的棒球氛围依然极为狂热，大谷翔平（Shohei Ohtani）不仅在场上具有无可替代的竞技价值，更撬动了巨大的日本转播与商业市场。此外，主打搞怪与纯娱乐表演性质的萨凡纳香蕉队（Savannah Bananas）彻底解决了传统棒球沉闷无趣的问题，虽然他们并非真正的竞技体育，但这种娱乐产品的火爆对 MLB 而言已经是一记醒目的警钟。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 体育联盟面临的挑战与两难困境 accDescr: 对比传统棒球与篮球联盟在观赛吸引力与媒体收入之间的内在冲突 subgraph NBA["NBA 的核心矛盾"] A["常规赛场次过多 / 球星负荷管理"] --> B["前三节与常规赛观赏性降低"] B -.-> C["破局解法：削减场次、提升单场含金量"] C --"直接冲突"--> D["媒体版权收入受损（播出时间缩水）"] end subgraph MLB["MLB 的衰退隐患与破局点"] E["年轻代际流失与节奏拖沓"] --> F["美国本土关注度持续滑落"] G["国际市场狂热（日韩）<br/>大谷翔平个人品牌效应"] --> H["维系联盟全球价值"] I["萨凡纳香蕉队崛起（纯娱乐化改造）"] --> J["反衬传统赛事模式危机"] end ``` --- ### [04:11:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=15111s) 商业法则提炼：资产契合度与体育投资的超额回报 从 IPL 的发展轨迹中，可以提炼出三个极具代表性的商业思考维度（Playbook Themes）： **其一，优质资产在正确的持有者手中会成倍增值。** 沙·鲁克·罕（Shah Rukh Khan）买下加尔各答骑士骑手队（Kolkata Knight Riders）是经典案例。如果这支球队落入被动财务投资人手中，其发展路径将完全不同。沙·鲁克·罕凭借其无可比拟的国民级影响力，通过亲自出镜拍摄队歌 MV、在赛场现身为球队站台，在收购落定的一瞬间就为俱乐部注入了数以百万计的品牌无形资产，成为资产价值的巨额放大器。 **其二，稀缺的顶级职业球队是长周期内极为罕见的超级资产。** 根据 Worldly Partners 的研报统计，从 1961 年到 2024 年，美国四大体育联盟（NFL、MLB、NBA、NHL）球队价值的年化复合回报率达到约 13%，明显跑赢了同期股市大盘的 10% 年化表现。拉长到这数十年的维度来看，大盘增长了 550 倍，而职业球队指数实现了令人咋舌的 2300 倍增长。更关键的是，顶级体育资产几乎没有股市那样剧烈的周期性回撤，且与传统公开市场资产相关性极低。印度虽然整体人均 GDP 较低，但亿万富豪数量严重“超配”，富豪资本极度充沛，而全国顶尖职业体育席位却仅有区区 10 支 IPL 球队，供需严重失衡构成了 IPL 球队估值长期看涨的坚实逻辑。 - **美股大盘表现（1961–2024）**：年化复合增长率约 10%，累计上涨约 550 倍，伴随多次大幅回撤。 - **美国四大体育联盟指数（1961–2024）**：年化复合增长率约 13%，累计上涨约 2300 倍，抗回撤属性与非相关性极强。 - **印度本土资本格局**：亿万富翁基数大 vs. 顶级体育资产仅 10 支球队，稀缺性构筑极高估值溢价。 --- ### [04:14:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=15291s) 关键之问：拉利特·莫迪的路径依赖与利益博弈 关于 IPL 乃至体育史上最具争议的核心追问，莫过于“如果没有拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi），IPL 究竟能否诞生？”答案显然是否定的。莫迪凭借极其激进的商业魄力与执行手段打破了旧秩序，但这种成功不可避免地带有强烈的路径依赖，好与坏如同硬币的两面难以分割。 这就引出了一个现实资本主义的永恒辩题：将一个人置于 BCCI 这种官僚气息浓厚的半监管、半行政机构之中，如果不允许他在幕后为自己谋取私利（比如被指控秘密持有三支车队的股份），他是否还会有足够的动力去整合千头万绪的各方利益、凭空创造出如此巨大的商业奇迹？在 Acquired 讨论过的商业巨擘中，唯有 Visa 创始人迪·霍克（Dee Hock）以及台积电的张忠谋（Morris Chang）曾以非绝对股权驱动的方式缔造了巨型网络，但即便如此，张忠谋后续也通过期权等激励获得了可观股份。鉴于 BCCI 当时机制对商业利益的严重压制与扭曲，莫迪那种狂热、肆无忌惮乃至游走在规则边缘的手段，恰恰成了凿穿旧制度、让资本主义激励在板球赛场释放活力的必要驱动力。 ### [04:16:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=15396s) 商业奇迹背后的数学乘积：IPL 的宏观增长顺风 在复盘 IPL（印度板球超级联赛）的成功时，主持人们首先探讨了在低信任度生态中推进交易的独特性。在印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）那样的传统体制内，要想白手起家做成如此庞大的商业帝国，往往需要像 Dee Hock（Visa 创始人）那样无可挑剔且意志坚决的人物——既要在低信任度环境中穿针引线促成交易，又不能越界中饱私囊，而这种人在商业史上实属罕见。 回顾 IPL 本质的核心要素（Quintessence），Ben 引用了前澳大利亚板球国手 Ed Cowan 的精辟见解：“如果你要设计一个把盈利底线最大化的体育联盟，IPL 就是标准的教科书范式。”从数学逻辑的“乘积”（Product）角度来看，IPL 正好处于数个宏观红利的交汇处： 1. **电视普及率暴涨**：在 IPL 发展的历程中，印度家庭的电视普及率从最初的 40% 攀升至 74%； 2. **移动互联网与智能手机爆发**：印度的互联网普及率从低于 5% 狂飙到如今的 60% 以上； 3. **人口基数巨大增长**：自 IPL 成立以来，印度人口净增 2.3 亿人，这相当于把整个美国成年人口的规模硬生生叠加到了印度原有的人口盘子上。这些顺风因素叠加在一起，构成了推动 IPL 爆发式发展的完美风暴。 --- ### [04:18:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=15484s) 完美娱乐产品的架构：IPL 对抗 NFL 的降维打击 David 提出了自己的核心论断：拉利特·莫迪（Lalit Modi）与 IMG 共同构思并打造了“人类迄今为止最完美的体育娱乐产品”。此前这一头衔属于美式橄榄球联盟 NFL，但 IPL 实现了质的超越。NFL 的成功在某种程度上带有历史的偶然性——它诞生于前电视时代乃至前流媒体时代，全靠皮特·罗泽尔（Pete Rozelle）等传奇总裁的一系列英明决策，一步步微调修补，才适应了现代荧幕，但由于历史包袱，它充其量只进化到了理想状态的 75%。 相比之下，IPL 是从零起步、纯粹面向后电视时代并前瞻流媒体与社交媒体所架构的产物。它的赛程规划极具侵略性：在整整两个月的赛季里，每晚只有一场黄金档焦点战，场场关键，宛如连续两个月上演超级碗级别的“周一橄榄球之夜（Monday Night Football）”。更关键的是，IPL 从第一天起就主动融入了宝莱坞明星与大众娱乐元素（如同 NFL 近年偶然蹭到的泰勒·斯威夫特效应，但 IPL 在十几年前就将其系统化内置）。这种合家欢定位带来了极其惊人的受众构成——IPL 的男女观众比例达到了真正意义上的 50/50，这是全球任何顶级男子职业体育联盟都无法企及的奇迹。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: IPL 与 NFL 商业娱乐产品设计对比 accDescr: 对比传统体育联盟 NFL 与从零针对数字流媒体设计的 IPL 在产品形态、受众与商业潜质上的差异 subgraph NFL["NFL 传统模式"] A["诞生于前电视时代"] --> B["靠后期修补与规则改良"] B --> C["高对抗/身体暴力/脑震荡风险"] C --> D["男性偏向受众<br/>局限特定日化广告品类"] end subgraph IPL["IPL 现代架构"] E["原生面向数字与流媒体时代"] --> F["整整两个月每晚一场焦点赛"] F --> G["深度融合宝莱坞娱乐生态"] G --> H["男女受众 50/50 均衡"] H --> I["通吃全品类广告<br/>宝莱坞大片主动避开档期"] end ``` - **反直觉的非暴力优势**：过去人们常认为 NFL 那样的强对抗和暴力感是让体育赛事具备高观赏性的必要前提，但对于 IPL 而言，其非碰撞性质反而打破了壁垒。从创立初期，IPL 的赞助商定位就是全方位的家庭消费品（包括洗发水、护肤美妆等），而 NFL 的身体暴力和脑震荡风险，在长远来看反而是阻碍其扩大受众的包袱。 - **真实现场悬念的统治地位**：在当今充斥着点播和算法推荐的内容格局中，体育是极少数保留“真正悬念”和“必看直播（Appointment viewing）”属性的超级媒介资产（颁奖礼如奥斯卡虽有悬念但一年仅一次）。 - **逼退宝莱坞暑期档**：由于 IPL 赛程正值印度学生放暑假，如今宝莱坞顶级电影制片厂都会刻意避开 IPL 赛季，绝不在此期间发行一线大片，因为在当下的印度娱乐界，IPL 本身就是收视率最恐怖的“宝莱坞超级大片”。 --- ### [04:22:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=15745s) 节目保留环节（Carveouts）：好剧推荐与行业致敬 在聊完 IPL 未来市值极有可能追平甚至超越 NFL 的宏大展望后，节目进入了标志性的“Carveouts（私人好物分享）”环节： - **Ben 的好物分享：美剧《人生切割术》（Severance）第二季**： Ben 盛赞由本·斯蒂勒（Ben Stiller）执导制作的《人生切割术》第二季堪称艺术品，摄影、剧情与审美水准极高。Ben 提到自己近期重温《迷失》（Lost）感到大失所望，认为当年的编剧根本没有清晰的全盘规划，留下无尽的虚无；而《人生切割术》让他重拾对“悬疑神秘盒（Mystery Box）”叙事风格的信任。与此同时，Ben 也借机推广了 Acquired 计划于 7 月 15 日在纽约举办的线下活动（acquired.fm/nyc）。 - **David 的好物分享：Ben Thompson 与 Stratechery 平台**： David 致敬了科技战略分析鼻祖 Ben Thompson 及其创立的 Stratechery，以及他与 Andrew Sharp 联合主持的半月播客节目《SharpTech》。David 强调，Stratechery 不仅是 Acquired 当年创办的重要灵感来源，而且即便在开创“聚合理论（Aggregation Theory）”十多年后的今天、在当前崭新的 AI 时代，Ben Thompson 依旧交出了职业生涯中最出色的分析与思考，堪称灯塔。 - **David 的生活好物：全家出行利器 Minivan**： David 分享了近期带一家四口前往达拉斯旅行的经历。他打破偏见破例租了一辆 Minivan（箱式商务车/MPV），结果体验惊艳——电动滑门、巨大的储物装载能力极大地化解了家庭带娃出行的痛苦。两人还打趣提到了马克·扎克伯格为妻子 Priscilla 专门定制的保时捷 Minivan。 --- ### [04:25:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=15928s) 赞助商致谢与板球圈致谢 在节目尾声，主持人们首先感谢了本季度的核心商业合作伙伴：JP Morgan Payments（摩根大通支付）、ServiceNow、Fundrise 以及 Crusoe。 随后，他们对在节目录制与深度调研过程中提供无私帮助的板球界重磅嘉宾表达了诚挚感谢： - **S. Somasegar（Soma）**：Madrona Venture Group 投资合伙人、前微软高管。他不仅在之前的微软特辑中提供过关键视角，更作为美国职业板球大联盟（Major League Cricket）西雅图逆鳞队（Seattle Orcas）的联合拥有者（与微软 CEO 萨蒂亚·纳德拉共同投资），提供了宝贵的第一手行业洞察。 - **Arvin Navaratnam**：来自 Worldly Partners，撰写了关于 IPL 数十年商业演进的顶级深度报告。 - **Ed Cowan**：Acquired 的挚友，前澳大利亚国家板球测试赛主力球员，曾在播客《Business Breakdowns》中呈现过极为精彩的 IPL 专题拆解。 - **Finn Bradshaw**：国际板球理事会（ICC）数字业务负责人。他常驻迪拜，不惜在深夜熬夜接受采访，巨细靡遗地向节目组梳理了 ICC、印度板球控制委员会（BCCI）以及全球板球政治商业动态的微妙博弈。 ### [04:26:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ&t=16005s) 致谢与尾声：从旧金山 49 人到美职板的跨界洞察 节目接近尾声，主持人向在筹备本期节目过程中提供关键帮助的嘉宾与顾问表达了由衷的感谢。在感谢金州勇士队（Golden State Warriors）牵线搭桥联系到芬恩（Finn）之后，他们特别致谢了旧金山 49 人队（San Francisco 49ers）的高管帕拉格·马拉泰（Paraag Marathe）。主持人感叹马拉泰的精力与履历令人惊叹：他的全职白天工作是旧金山 49 人队的高管/总裁；而傍晚的第二份工作则是担任英格兰利兹联足球俱乐部（Leeds United Football Club）的主席——49 人队正是这家英格兰足球俱乐部的大股东；此外，他长期以来的“夜间工作”则是牵头推动美国板球大联盟（Major League Cricket, MLC）的创立与搭建。 在探讨 IPL 的商业版图时，马拉泰带来了极其独到且关键的业界视角。他在多个维度上为节目提供了巨大帮助，尤其是协助主持人对 IPL 那些看似疯狂的“牛市与超级牛市推演案例”（crazy bull and mega bull case）进行了严格的常理与现实检验（sanity checking）。 在节目收尾之际，主持人向听众推荐了其他精彩内容，并完成了经典的节目告别： - **体育商业系列联动**：建议喜欢本期节目的听众回听 Acquired 此前关于 NBA 和 NFL 的深度长篇分析。 - **ACQ2 衍生访谈**：推荐收听 ACQ2 近期对 ServiceNow 首席执行官比尔·麦克德莫特（Bill McDermott）的专访。 - **社区交流**：欢迎听众在听完节目后前往官方 Slack 社区（acquired.fm/slack）参与讨论。 - **经典标志性谢幕**：伴随着标志性的告别语和主题曲 *"Who got the truth? Is it you? Is it you? Is it you? Who got the truth now?"*，这期长达四个半小时的 IPL 史诗巨献圆满落幕。 ## Video description When you saw this episode pop up in your feed, you either jumped for joy and hit play immediately (in which case you’re not reading this), or you said “Huh. That’s a surprising episode.” Well, if you’re in group two, boy do we have a treat for you! IPL is the fastest-growing, most dynamic and most disruptive force in the sports industry today… and this may come as a shock to many Americans, but it might just be on track to surpass the NFL as the world’s most valuable sports league. The IPL is currently valued at $16B, with a TV rights deal that’s higher in per-match dollars than the NBA and the English Premier League. And all this for a league that’s right now just 10 teams who collectively only play 74 total games per season… and oh yeah, the whole thing is only 17 years old! Tune in for an absolutely amazing story, filled with genius, drama (Rupert Murdoch! Disney! Bollywood!) and a perfect encapsulation of the rise of modern India. *Links:* - Ed Cowan’s Business Breakdowns of IPL: https://joincolossus.com/episode/cowan-ipl-reinventing-cricket/ - Worldly Partners’ Multi-Decade IPL Study: https://worldlypartners.com/businesshistory - Episode sources: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/indian-premier-league-cricket#sources *Carve Outs:* - Severance: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11280740/ - Stratechery: https://stratechery.com *More Acquired:* - Get email updates https://www.acquired.fm/email and vote on future episodes! - Join the Slack http://acquired.fm/slack - Check out the latest swag in the ACQ Merch Store https://www.acquired.fm/store! _Note: Acquired hosts and guests may hold assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. You should do your own research and make your own independent decisions when considering any financial transactions._ [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6FS70B0blQ)

[17:06] Ashis Nandy: cricket is an Indian game accidentally discovered by the English [33:10] Lalit Modi: So you are going to go from spending $100,000 a year to spending $15 million per year. And oh by the way if you don't want to do that that's fine. I'm happy for you not to do that. I'm then going to go put this out to auction and we'll see who is willing to pay that. [41:55] Lalit Modi: Mr. Murdoch, I am informing you that your contract is terminated right now. [46:16] Lalit Modi: I created billions of dollars of value for cricket in India... from nothing [80:36] Lalit Modi: Being the big daddy for all sporting events in India already with the BCCI bilaterals... All the money that was there in the market that brands had for spending was consumed. There were no more budgets left. We had sucked it all out by taking the price of BCCI in aggregate from a few million dollars to a billion dollars. I had already sucked that money out. And so when I looked at where are we going to get the money to make IPL work, I needed women and children. [102:01] Lalit Modi: Rupert Murdoch I had blacklisted. I would never allow him in due to what had already happened. So I blacklisted Rupert Murdoch. [120:00] Lalit Modi: Our number one pillar, I would call it the pillar of the IPL was that we needed to have a department called controversy. And controversy allows us to get front page news. If you're controversial, good or bad, doesn't matter. As long as people talk about us... let them talk about us, and we don't clarify anything. [151:53] This is the definition of disruptive advertising, or as one ad executive put it, a hardcore female brand on an alpha male chest. [201:04] They used to be break even and then they were pretty profitable and now they're really, really profitable. And as revenue keeps going, they're going to get really, really, really profitable. [246:02] The whole league is architected as a soap opera, and then you make a soap opera about the soap opera... it's going to be so good. [264:51] you needed Lalit [267:05] Ed Cowan: If you were to design a sports league to maximize the bottom line, this is how you would do it. [267:05] the thus far most perfect sports entertainment product that mankind has ever known

[0:00] I am listening to the Kolkata Night [0:03] Riders anthem as my pumpup song. Oh, [0:06] nice. It is so awesome. Have you seen [0:08] the music video with Shah Ruk Khan, the [0:11] owner of the Kolkata Night Riders? No. [0:14] He is the main character with the [0:15] Bollywood dance around him. Okay, I'm [0:18] going to go watch it right now. And it's [0:19] a little cheesy cuz I think it's from [0:21] 2008 era, but it is perfect pumpup [0:24] music. Oh, yes. We've got the player [0:27] silhouettes in fire. Yes, that's exactly [0:30] the one. This is [0:33] incredible. How have I not seen this [0:35] before? This is something that American [0:37] sports definitely need to adopt. Oh man, [0:40] we've got like a construction crew. Too [0:43] hot, too cool. That is exactly the right [0:45] reaction. Okay, I'm going to pause it. [0:47] We're not even going to record an [0:48] episode. I'm going to watch this over. [0:52] All right, let's do it. Let's do it. Who [0:54] got the [0:56] truth? Is it you? Is it you? Is it you [0:59] who got the truth now? Truth. Is it you? [1:03] Is it you? Is it you? Sit me down. Say [1:06] it straight. Another story on the way. [1:11] Welcome to the spring 2025 season of [1:13] Acquired, the podcast about great [1:15] companies and the stories and playbooks [1:16] behind them. I'm Ben Gilbert. I'm David [1:19] Rosenthal. And we are your hosts. Today [1:22] we cover the most interesting story in [1:24] sports, cricket. Now, when David pitched [1:28] me this idea a few months ago, I [1:29] thought, h, I'm not that interested in [1:31] cricket. And to all of our US listeners [1:33] out there, I am guessing you feel the [1:35] same way. But I was very wrong. Hey, [1:39] there are 20 million hardcore cricket [1:41] fans in the US today. Great point, as we [1:43] will get into later in the episode. [1:45] Great point. And listeners, this story [1:47] really isn't about the game of cricket [1:49] anyways. It's about how to create a [1:51] massively successful sports league from [1:53] scratch. something that I thought was [1:55] impossible after doing our NFL and NBA [1:57] episodes, which each took a hundred [1:59] years to get to where they are today. [2:01] Indian Premier League cricket started a [2:03] mere 17 years ago in 2008. And even more [2:08] than a sports league, the IPL is a case [2:10] study in how to create the perfect [2:12] entertainment product. They took this [2:14] sleepy, polite British sport with [2:17] matches that lasted 5 days and they [2:19] completely transformed it. It is [2:21] compressed down to 3 hours. It's a high [2:24] octane slugfest that is all about power [2:26] hitting and hitting sixes, the sort of [2:29] cricket equivalent of a home run. It's [2:31] got Bollywood glamour and onfield dance [2:34] performances, cheerleaders, fireworks, [2:36] and the way they started the league [2:38] itself was a highstakes auction to a [2:41] group of billionaires and movie stars. [2:43] And of course, they carefully studied [2:46] all the mechanics that made the NBA and [2:48] the NFL as successful as they are today [2:50] and then applied them on steroids. It's [2:52] an amazing story. On top of all of this, [2:55] the story itself has just about the most [2:58] palace intrigue of any company we've [3:00] ever studied. You've got Disney, Philip [3:03] Morris, Rupert Murdoch, Reliance, Tata, [3:06] and even Google. There's a very, very [3:09] complicated founder figure. There's [3:11] corruption. There's potential [3:13] self-deing, betting, rigging, and [3:16] miraculously the league has been [3:18] successful despite all that. So [3:20] successful, in fact, that it is the [3:22] fastest growing major sports league in [3:24] the world, growing 20x in value since [3:27] 2008 to be worth more than $16 billion [3:31] today. Insanely, the media rights to [3:34] each match are so valuable that they're [3:37] second only to the NFL. The TV broadcast [3:40] rights, let me just say this again, for [3:42] each match are worth more than an [3:44] English Premier League soccer match or [3:46] an NBA game or a Major League Baseball [3:48] game. Yes, there's one angle where IPL [3:52] cricket looks like pure unadulterated [3:54] capitalism applied to the world of [3:55] sports, but there's another angle where [3:58] it looks a lot more like a religion or a [4:01] unifying cultural force or even a [4:03] mechanism of diplomacy as we shall see. [4:06] And David, I don't want to spoil too [4:08] much, but last night before we were [4:10] recording, you were pitching me that 20 [4:11] years from now, the IPL will be the [4:13] largest sports league on the planet, [4:16] period. Bigger than the NFL. That is the [4:19] case I'm going to make on this episode. [4:21] It's funny. On our NFL episode, we came [4:23] to the conclusion that the NFL is this [4:25] perfect blend of communism and [4:27] capitalism. And I was thinking, oh, [4:29] maybe the IPL will be an even more [4:31] perfect blend. No, it's the perfect [4:33] blend of capitalism and religion. Yes. [4:36] Oo, that's a great way to put it. Even [4:37] more lucrative. Yep. So, listeners, is [4:40] this a bubble waiting to pop or the [4:43] future of entertainment? Today, we dive [4:45] in. Well, we have one huge announcement [4:48] to share with you today. A save the [4:50] date. We can't say much yet, but after [4:54] incredible listener demand over the [4:56] years, we are finally coming to New York [4:59] City. Yeah, July 15th. Save the date, [5:03] mark your calendars with our good [5:05] friends at JP Morgan Payments. And if [5:08] you want to be the first to know when we [5:09] have any details to announce, [5:13] acquire.fm/nyc. We can't wait to see you [5:15] there. We can't wait to see you there [5:16] and we can't wait to be there. Yep. If [5:19] you want to know every time an episode [5:21] drops, check out our email list. It's [5:23] the only place where we share a hint at [5:25] what our next episode will be and share [5:27] episode corrections, updates, and little [5:29] tidbits that we learned from previous [5:31] episodes. And we actually had quite a [5:32] few little ones from all the Rolex [5:34] enthusiasts. So, thank you to the deluge [5:37] of people who wrote in with little [5:39] corrections to particular reference [5:41] numbers about the Rolex episode. That's [5:44] acquired.fm [5:45] fm/e to join the list. Join the Slack [5:48] and talk about this with us afterwards [5:50] with the whole Acquired community [5:52] acquired. Slack. And if you want more [5:54] acquired between each episode, check out [5:56] ACQ2, our interview show where we talk [5:58] with founders and CEOs building their [6:01] businesses in real time. This most [6:03] recent one was with Bill McDermott, the [6:05] CEO of Service Now, talking about the [6:08] art of enterprise sales that he used to [6:10] grow Service Now to over $10 billion in [6:13] revenue. Before we dive in, we want to [6:15] thank our presenting partner, JP Morgan [6:18] Payments. Yes, just like how we say [6:19] every company has a story, every [6:21] company's story is powered by payments. [6:23] And JP Morgan Payments is a part of so [6:25] many of their journeys from seed to IPO [6:27] and beyond. So with that, this show is [6:29] not investment advice. David and I may [6:30] have investments in the companies we [6:32] discuss and this show is forformational [6:33] and entertainment purposes only. David, [6:36] take us in. Well, we start in the early [6:40] 1990s with a colorful character, shall [6:44] we say, named Lallet Modi. No relation [6:48] to Nahendra Modi, the prime minister of [6:50] India, but he is from another famous [6:55] Modi family. Lit is the son of the [6:59] renowned Indian industrialist KK Modi [7:03] who had built a fairly large [7:05] conglomerate in India. you know, in the [7:06] vein of Reliance or Tata or whatnot, it [7:09] seems like all these big Indian [7:11] companies are conglomerates. Like it was [7:12] actually kind of hard to find a scaled [7:15] Indian company that did one thing. Yeah. [7:18] The industrial structure in India at [7:20] least today seems to be more like South [7:22] Korea or Japan with the big [7:24] conglomerates. Yep. But in this case, [7:27] Mod's conglomerate primarily is based [7:30] around the tobacco industry and they [7:33] have a JV partnership with Philip Morris [7:35] and are one of India's leading tobacco [7:38] and cigarette companies. So lit as the [7:41] air apparent son in this family to this [7:43] business, he gets sent to college in the [7:46] US for his education. First he goes to [7:48] Pace University and then he transfers to [7:51] Duke University. He ends up not [7:53] finishing and coming back home and [7:54] rejoining the family business. But when [7:56] he comes back, inspired by his time at [8:00] Duke and how basketball crazy Duke is, [8:03] he's like, "Man, the thing that really [8:05] struck me about America is how sports [8:08] crazy everyone is there and how big a [8:10] business sports is in America and how [8:13] big the sports media business is around [8:15] it." Yes, we should get into that. [8:17] Specifically, I saw him reference Monday [8:19] Night Football as this appointment [8:22] viewing. My friends all would gather [8:24] around it. We couldn't do anything [8:25] Monday nights at that time because [8:27] they're all glued to the TV watching [8:28] Monday Night Football. Yep. And this is [8:31] kind of the perfect time for it because [8:32] here in the early '9s, Indian households [8:35] are for the first time starting to get [8:37] television. And so there hadn't been a [8:39] sports culture, there certainly hadn't [8:41] been a sports media culture in India up [8:43] until this point, but it's fertile [8:45] ground. So Lit goes to the Walt Disney [8:49] Company and Disney of course owns 80% of [8:52] ESPN at this point in time and says hey [8:55] my family has this JV with Philip Morris [8:57] you know help them enter the Indian [8:59] market we can help you Disney do the [9:01] same thing and at first it's not sports [9:04] it's not ESPN yet it's Disney Disney [9:06] kids movies merchandise entering the [9:09] market that way yes so in kind of a [9:12] genius fashion lit uses the sales force [9:15] that the Modi company has for their [9:17] tobacco products. They have 80,000 [9:20] 100,000 sales reps that are going to [9:23] convenience stores, corner stores, you [9:25] know, in every part of the country in [9:27] India, this vast vast country where the [9:29] majority of people do not live in large [9:31] cities. They've got a sales channel [9:34] relationship into these stores [9:35] distributing cigarettes. So lit says, [9:38] "Hey, we can leverage this sales force [9:40] and use those people to go hook up with [9:42] these early wild west protocable [9:45] operators out there in these towns and [9:48] villages in India and bring them Disney [9:50] content." It's amazing. And so this [9:52] isn't like distributing home video, [9:54] right? This is finding the local person [9:57] who has set up all the wires to go out [9:59] to the other homes in the neighborhood [10:02] and going to that person and saying, [10:03] "Hey, I know you have hundreds or [10:05] thousands of homes that you're sending [10:08] content to. Can you send this content [10:09] there?" Yep. There is a national [10:12] overthe-air broadcast network in India, [10:15] national network called Dor Darian. But [10:17] just like happened decades earlier in [10:19] the US, little mom and pop cable [10:21] operators are starting to pop up and [10:22] saying, "Oh yeah, we'll run a wire. You [10:24] know, we've got a satellite dish. We're [10:26] pulling down signal from CNN or what [10:28] have you, and we'll rebroadcast those [10:30] channels out to you via wire into your [10:33] home." Makes sense. So, at this point, [10:35] Modi is sort of acting as a middleman [10:37] between the content creation business [10:39] and the distribution business. He [10:41] neither has to create the Disney movies [10:43] and the Disney content, but he also [10:45] doesn't have to lay wires. Yep. He is [10:48] the JV partner that Disney is entering [10:50] India with. Got it. So now here we are [10:53] in the early '90s. Disney isn't the only [10:57] major global media conglomerate that [10:59] sees the potential of this newly [11:03] television hookedup Indian consumer [11:06] market. There's News Corp out there and [11:09] Rupert Murdoch. And Rupert, of course, [11:12] really built the television side of News [11:14] Corp, but Fox on the back of two things. [11:16] It was news at first, but then it was [11:18] really sports that helped Fox totally [11:21] take off. I mean, the NFL Sunday deal [11:23] here in the US is what put them on the [11:25] map. This is the blueprint for bringing [11:27] Fox into a News Corp into a new country [11:30] and Fox Sports and eventually all the [11:32] regional sports networks in the US. [11:34] Exactly. So News Corp had just launched [11:36] a new brand and channel in India called [11:39] Star. And Rupert's going around looking [11:42] for how he's going to run this playbook [11:43] in India. What sports is he going to [11:45] broadcast? And pretty quickly he figures [11:48] out that there's really only one sport [11:50] that matters in India and that's [11:52] cricket. And it just so happens that he [11:55] thinks he can actually get the rights to [11:58] broadcast Indian national cricket pretty [12:01] darn cheaply. We're going to come back [12:02] to that in a little bit. And the [12:04] question is what is cricket at this [12:06] point? You know this is the Indian [12:07] national cricket team playing other [12:09] countries in these international matches [12:13] and then there's a big world cup but [12:16] it's not like each city has a team or [12:18] something like that. Yeah there's no [12:20] English Premier League of cricket at [12:22] this point in time. Cricket is just this [12:25] international game. And now that the [12:27] Indians are getting televisions, the [12:30] Indian national team playing cricket is [12:32] becoming must-see television. Yeah. It's [12:34] Monday Night Football. It's the [12:36] playoffs. It's probably every Indian [12:39] male who has access to a TV. And I say [12:42] male because at this point in time, [12:43] cricket is a male game. Yep. Is watching [12:45] when the Indian national team is [12:47] playing. Yep. So Rupert hoovers up these [12:50] rights pretty cheaply and all of a [12:52] sudden Star is now the place to watch [12:55] cricket in India. Lot sees this. He's [12:58] got the partnership with Disney. He's [12:59] always been interested in sports and [13:00] he's like, "Well, hey guys, you have [13:02] ESPN. We got to get in this game. We got [13:05] to be getting cricket, too." Yep. So L [13:08] and ESPN and Disney, they go to IMG, the [13:12] big international sports agency, which [13:14] we didn't plan this at all. amazing [13:16] crossover with our Rolex episode. The [13:19] same IMG. IMG of course helped Rolex [13:22] design the testimony program that [13:24] brought in Jack Nicholas and Arnold [13:26] Palmer and then ultimately Roger Federer [13:28] and all of the athletes who partnered [13:30] with Rolex over the years. Yep. So Lal [13:33] and ESPN and IMG, they go to the [13:36] National Cricut Board in India that [13:39] controls these broadcast rights. The [13:41] National Cricket Board is called the [13:42] BCCI, the Board for the Control of [13:44] Cricket in India. And they say, "Hey, [13:48] you sold these pretty cheaply to Rupert. [13:52] We'll pay you more. We'll take them. We [13:54] should run an auction process here." And [13:56] it's worth knowing the BCCI's [13:59] responsibility is not really a profit [14:03] maximizing organization. It's kind of a [14:06] regulatory body. It's not the [14:07] government, but they're tasked with [14:10] developing the sport of cricket and in [14:12] particular cricket in India, ensuring [14:14] that the sport has longevity and it has [14:16] all the infrastructure that it needs. [14:18] They're like the stewards of making sure [14:21] that Indian cricket has a long and [14:24] successful future. and all of the other [14:26] cricket playing countries from England [14:28] to Australia to Sri Lanka to the West [14:30] Indies, they all have the same type of [14:32] structure in their countries and they [14:34] all actually roll up to the IC which [14:37] today is called the International [14:38] Cricket Council. But interesting to know [14:40] when it started in 1909, it was the [14:43] Imperial Cricket Conference. So that [14:45] gives you a sense of the way that [14:47] cricket was spread around the world by [14:48] the British. Yes, it is the British [14:50] Commonwealth countries that are [14:51] historically the cricket playing nations [14:54] and are part of the ICC. Yep. So, we've [14:56] been talking about how these early [14:58] cricket rights here in the '90s, Star [15:00] and Murdoch, they're able to get them [15:02] super cheap. It actually wasn't until [15:05] right before all this goes down that [15:08] India even realized they had the [15:10] broadcast rights to cricket at all. Yes. [15:12] They didn't even know. And this is [15:14] crazy. You can't make this up. How do [15:16] they find it out? In [15:19] 1991, the South African national cricket [15:22] team comes on a tour to India. It's [15:26] international cricket. They're playing [15:27] in India. And the South African cricket [15:29] board is like, "Hey, we want to [15:32] broadcast this. Uh, how much do we owe [15:34] you for the rights?" Cricket was newly [15:36] extremely popular in India. It was 1983, [15:40] 8 years before where India had won the [15:42] Cricket World Cup for the first time. [15:43] This is really big deal. The nation [15:45] comes together, they're all excited [15:46] about it. Then 87 is the first time the [15:49] World Cup is actually hosted outside of [15:51] England. It's actually in India and [15:52] Pakistan. So the power of the cricket [15:55] globally is starting to shift to India. [15:57] And so this is only four years after [15:59] India hosted the World Cup for the first [16:01] time and cricket's kind of on the rise. [16:02] Yep. And it's all tied up with the [16:04] television penetration of India. Yes. [16:07] The first time that it's even possible [16:09] for these to become big national pride [16:11] type events. So here South Africa is [16:14] just coming for a tour national team and [16:16] the board is like well how much do we [16:18] owe you for [16:20] this? They don't know how to respond. So [16:23] there's this great history of they're [16:25] sort of like talking amongst each other. [16:26] Well, what do we think we should say? We [16:28] should say $10,000. Is that crazy? Let's [16:31] start with 20. See what they say? [16:32] $20,000. And then you know they can [16:34] bargain us down from there. So they go [16:36] to the meeting or phone call with one [16:38] representative of the BCCI with the [16:40] South African board. And before the BCCI [16:43] representative can open his mouth at [16:45] all, the South African board member [16:47] says, "We're thinking $200,000. Does [16:49] that sound good to you?" And then you [16:52] guys like, "Uh, yeah. Yeah, that sounds [16:55] great. Let's do that." So, they only [16:58] just discovered that this thing had [17:00] value. They even had these rights and [17:02] that they could sell them. And then it [17:03] got really concretized into law a couple [17:06] years later. There's a legal battle [17:08] between the BCCI and this legendary [17:12] leader of the BCCI, Delmaya. And he goes [17:16] to war against the national state [17:19] broadcaster, Dardian. And the outcome of [17:22] this legal battle is yes, even the [17:25] Indian government, the state broadcaster [17:27] has to pay the BCCI for these rights. [17:29] The BCCI is the owner of the rights and [17:31] they can sell them to anyone they want. [17:33] Yep. And that guy, Delmaya, he was the [17:35] BCCI board member who was negotiating [17:38] with South Africa. He was the guy on the [17:39] call who heard $200,000 and was like, [17:42] "Okay." Yeah. It's like, "Look, South [17:44] Africa has to pay us." And then they [17:45] come home, they get into a legal battle [17:46] and that even the Indian government has [17:48] to pay us. We really own these rights. [17:50] Yeah. He was like the proto Lallet Modi. [17:53] Lot before lit. [17:55] Yes. There's one other really fun sort [17:59] of history turns on a knife point [18:00] element to cricket in India. [18:03] So like you said Ben cricket was the [18:06] most popular sport in India before 1983 [18:10] but that didn't mean that much and it [18:12] hadn't captured the country's [18:13] imagination that much yet. Also England [18:15] always hosted the World Cup. The center [18:17] of gravity was England and so it wasn't [18:19] India's thing. It was just a thing they [18:21] participated in. It was a British thing. [18:23] There's an amazing line about this by an [18:26] author named Ashis Nandi who wrote a [18:28] book called the Dow of Cricket and he [18:29] says cricket is an Indian game [18:32] accidentally discovered by the English. [18:34] While we're on this topic of things the [18:36] BCCI realizes they own and in particular [18:40] Dela and I hope I'm pronouncing that [18:42] correctly is the one who gains these [18:44] rights the same way that he solidifies [18:46] the broadcast rights. In 2001, Delmaya [18:50] introduces central contracts for Indian [18:53] players and pensions for retired [18:56] cricketers as a part of the BCCI's [18:59] rebbit. The BCCI is the one who pays the [19:03] players. This is so critical. And at the [19:06] time it's almost like, oh, of course the [19:08] BCCI pays the national team. But it sort [19:11] of sets up this umbrella that no matter [19:14] how an Indian cricketer is playing [19:16] cricket, we are the one who pays them or [19:19] at least who sort of has a contract with [19:21] them. And that along with the BCCI's [19:24] ownership of media rights is this killer [19:26] combo that would eventually lead later [19:28] to the IPL as we have it today. Yep. So [19:31] all this launches ESPN in India and [19:35] there's back and forth for a couple [19:36] years between Star and ESPN. and they're [19:39] bidding over these cricket rights with [19:40] the BCCI. Eventually in 1996, they [19:43] decide, hey, let's stop fighting each [19:45] other. Let's just merge. Antirust uh [19:48] regulation in India is not quite what it [19:50] is in the US at this point in time. No. [19:52] So Star and ESPN merge and to hear Lot [19:56] tell the story. Rupert Murdoch is kind [19:58] of a you know sore loser here that Lot [20:02] came in and increased the money that he [20:03] had to spend for these cricket rights [20:05] ultimately had to merge with ESPN. He [20:08] decides that he's gonna kick Lot out of [20:11] his baby, out of this company post [20:13] merger. [20:15] Now, is that really what happened? [20:17] That's Lett's side of the story. Um, [20:20] Star Disney, the merged entity, would [20:22] allege that Lot under reported revenues [20:24] that they were collecting and was [20:27] accepting kickbacks from the cable [20:28] operators, all sorts of stuff. There's a [20:31] big lawsuit about it. Goes on for a [20:33] couple years and at the end of it, Lik [20:35] gets booted out of the business and [20:37] despite his family's 50% ownership in [20:40] that original ESPN Disney joint venture, [20:43] he gets nothing. He's out in the cold. [20:46] Brutal. So from his perspective, he's [20:48] like, "Hey, I started Disney India. I [20:52] modernized cable in India. I brought [20:56] sports to India. I did this. And now all [20:59] of a sudden I'm out in the cold and I [21:00] get nothing. And in his mind, Rupert [21:04] Murdoch is the reason that this [21:05] happened. He's the villain. Rupert stole [21:07] it away from the Modi family. My sworn [21:11] enemy from here [21:13] onwards. And thus begins a 10 to 15year [21:17] journey that is not just the ultimate [21:20] revenge play by lit on rupert but [21:24] accidentally along the way starts the [21:26] biggest sports entrepreneurial story [21:30] phenomenon that has ever existed. Yep. [21:33] Crazy out of this feud. And I will say [21:36] more than any other episode that we've [21:39] done, it seems like every element of [21:42] this has two completely different sides [21:44] to the story. Both of which the leaders [21:49] of that side dig in and maintain their [21:51] side. In most companies we study, there [21:54] kind of becomes one canonical truth and [21:57] it's mostly written by the victors. But [21:59] in the history of the IPL and especially [22:02] with Lit Modi, there's always two [22:05] completely different stories [22:06] representing how it went and nobody ever [22:09] gives an inch on either side of them. [22:11] They just say, "Oh, that's all lies. [22:13] That never happened. No way did that [22:14] ever happen. Zero truth to that." And so [22:16] it is a little bit difficult to tease [22:18] out what actually did happen given there [22:21] is no convergence of story. Yeah. And [22:23] this is probably the right moment to say [22:25] a word about the nature of doing [22:26] business in India at least at this point [22:28] in time the 80s early 90s the euphemism [22:32] I believe that the Indian business [22:34] environment is referred to as a low [22:36] trust environment i.e. This is part for [22:39] the course. Yes, if you make an [22:42] investment, you should be babysitting it [22:44] very carefully, very actively making [22:47] sure that your interests are protected. [22:49] A lot of corruption, a lot of kickbacks [22:51] and particularly doing business in India [22:54] as a foreign company at this point in [22:56] time is at your own risk, shall we say. [22:59] And I will say these phrases, [23:00] corruption, kickbacks, that is a [23:04] westerners's way or an American way of [23:06] describing it. I think another way to [23:08] look at it is just these are just the [23:09] norms. This is the way you do business. [23:11] I don't know what you expected. Totally. [23:14] You Disney, you news corp, you are [23:17] foreign corporations coming into our [23:20] country and trying to play by your own [23:22] rules here like no this is India. You [23:25] play by our rules. So the net of it is [23:28] Lit's got this blood vendetta against [23:30] not just News Corp and Star, but like [23:32] Rupert Murdoch personally specifically. [23:36] And what's the way to hit him where it [23:39] hurts the most? Well, it's the biggest [23:42] piece on his chessboard pillar of News [23:44] Corp. It's sports. And it's what Lit [23:47] thinks is like his birthright like he [23:50] brought to India was professionalizing [23:51] and televising sports. He needs to take [23:54] that away from Rert. So how are you [23:56] going to do that? Well, who controls [23:58] cricket in India? It's the national [24:00] cricket board, the [24:02] BCCI. So Lot figures, okay, I need to [24:05] engineer getting myself installed on the [24:08] BCCI board. It turns out the way that [24:11] you get to be on the board of the BCCI [24:13] is first you need to be either president [24:16] of or just on the board of a state [24:18] cricket association. So they're states [24:20] within India. So in 1999, Lot manages to [24:24] join the board of one of the smaller [24:26] Indian state cricket [24:27] associations. That ends up not working [24:30] out. And then in 2003, he manages to get [24:33] appointed to the Rajasthan state board. [24:36] And then quickly engineers what [24:38] basically amounts to a coup of the board [24:41] and gets himself elected in 2003 2004 as [24:45] president of the Rajasthan board. So now [24:47] he's got a path to the BCCI. He starts [24:50] waging a campaign that the BCCI is [24:54] vastly undermonetizing the television [24:57] rights to international cricket. Mind [24:59] you, he was like directly involved in [25:01] buying them for cheap when he was back [25:02] at ESPN, but now he's like, I know how [25:04] valuable these are. I know how many [25:06] eyeballs these are getting and like you [25:09] guys now you're selling them for 105 [25:11] million a year. These are worth hundreds [25:14] of millions of dollars a year, right? [25:16] other than the latest slate of Bollywood [25:19] movies, this is what the Indian [25:21] population cares about. So why are we [25:23] making10 to 15 million dollars on it? [25:25] Yeah, this is an outrageous claim in [25:29] 2004. It also just happens to be right. [25:32] But saying something like this is crazy. [25:35] He is a darkhorse candidate to come in [25:36] and reform the BCCI and fully [25:39] commercialize this quasi governmental [25:42] entity. Right? That is the important [25:43] thing. Their remit was not make the most [25:46] money. They were not acting as a [25:48] capitalist enterprise with shareholders. [25:51] It was to preserve and promote the game [25:54] of cricket to make sure that our [25:55] national team is good. Yep. But most of [25:58] the members are industrialists from the [26:00] industrialist families just like Modi. [26:02] You know, their interests are Disney, [26:04] News Corp, these big multinational [26:06] corporations. I would really like to [26:08] have a relationship with you all. Oh, [26:10] maybe there's stuff we can do together. [26:11] maybe we we should advertise our [26:13] company's products on these cricket [26:16] events and oh maybe we can get to know [26:17] you and advertise on other programming [26:19] that you're doing. So it's rife with [26:21] conflicts of interest, shall we say? And [26:23] the only reason that Lit doesn't have [26:25] this conflict of interest is cuz he got [26:26] ousted. He's ousted. Exactly. And his [26:29] life mission is to extract revenge here. [26:32] So this campaign succeeds and in 2005 he [26:36] finally gets appointed to the BCCI. And [26:40] this is wild. Within a span of like two [26:43] months, he completely upends everything. [26:48] He's not the chairperson of the BCCI. [26:50] He's just a newly elected board member, [26:51] one of, you know, I don't know, five or [26:53] seven board members. He comes in like a [26:55] wrecking ball. So, the first thing he [26:57] does, he goes to the main sponsor of the [27:01] team, like the title presenting sponsor [27:03] of the Indian National Cricket Team. I [27:07] think at this point, probably already [27:10] the logo is on the jersey. That's like [27:12] one of the main things you're going to [27:14] get as the title sponsor. And maybe at [27:17] this point in time, you're also getting [27:19] the logo on the broadcast, but [27:21] pathetically commercial versus cricket [27:24] today. Well, let me give you a sense of [27:26] how commercial it is at the time. So, [27:29] the presenting team sponsor is the [27:32] Sahara Group, which is another one of [27:34] these big Indian family conglomerates. [27:37] How much do you think they are paying [27:38] the BCCI for this sponsorship? I don't [27:43] know, a million bucks. [27:45] $100,000 per year. I thought a million [27:47] was low. Wow. [27:50] Well, just you wait a million is low. [27:53] Mind you, when we've said that cricket [27:54] is the biggest sport in India, nothing [27:57] else matters. It borders on [27:59] religion. It has [28:01] 93% mind share of sports in India. And I [28:06] think that calculation is done by viewer [28:07] hours. Yeah. If you look at all sports [28:10] watched, cricket is 93% of the hours [28:13] people paid attention. If you look at [28:15] American football at the NFL in America, [28:17] it's like I don't know 37% or something [28:20] like that. It is less than 50%. Cricket [28:23] in India is 93%. Yeah, it's a one sport [28:26] country and it happens to be a one sport [28:28] country with one of the two largest [28:30] populations in the world that is growing [28:32] the fastest in the world and the middle [28:35] class is rapidly expanding. So like this [28:38] is exactly as you know if you're Pepsi [28:40] or you're Tata $100,000 to sponsor. Oh [28:43] my god. Oh my god. Unbelievable. Now you [28:46] might think, "Oh, okay. Well, you just [28:48] told me that this sport is sort of in [28:50] the model of the Olympics right now. [28:52] It's international competition. Maybe [28:53] they're not playing that much. You know, [28:55] is this team only playing for two weeks [28:57] in the summer? Maybe there's just not [28:58] that much inventory." No, they are [29:00] playing 105 days of competition per [29:04] year. all nationally televised and not [29:07] to mention one of those days is when [29:09] they play Pakistan or more than one of [29:10] those days and the whole country stops [29:12] to pay attention on that day. That game [29:15] alone you would think would be millions [29:16] of dollars. You say day at this point in [29:20] time there are two forms of cricket. [29:22] There are one-day internationals which [29:24] is the new fancy version of cricket that [29:26] came about what in the '7s '8s '7s '8s [29:29] and that really was to enable [29:31] tournaments to happen like you can play [29:33] a match in one day takes all day these [29:35] are eight hour games so it's all day the [29:38] country's eyes are glued on this the [29:39] other form of cricket the classical form [29:42] of cricket is test cricket test cricket [29:44] a match lasts five days so one day [29:48] internationals were invented so that you [29:49] could have kind of a roundrobin [29:50] tournament with [29:52] Otherwise, there's no way you can [29:54] tournament where every match, [29:57] right? The vibes are very different, [29:59] shall we say? The uh test cricket is [30:01] very Do you know why it's called test by [30:03] the way? Uh I believe it's because it's [30:06] a test of the strength, will you know [30:08] the team and in particular to test the [30:11] English team. When they first brought [30:13] cricket out to the rest of the [30:15] Commonwealth, it was that those teams [30:18] could then come and test against the [30:20] English team. When they came to Lords, [30:22] Lords is the hallowed cricket ground in [30:24] England. Yes. To play this five-day [30:27] thoughtful, quiet, strategic. The vibe [30:30] is like golf even though you're playing [30:32] something that looks like baseball. [30:34] Totally. I have to bring in some [30:36] personal history here. So, I am a [30:38] quarter British. I'm genetically [30:40] predisposed to, you know, already be [30:41] into cricket. But when I was growing up, [30:43] my grandmother was British. Probably [30:45] every other summer I would go spend two, [30:48] three, four weeks with my family in the [30:50] Midlands in the countryside in England [30:52] visiting my grandmother's family. And [30:55] you know, as a little kid, like what [30:56] would be on TV in the summertime in [30:58] England? It was this test cricket. And [31:00] so I grew up, even though I played [31:01] baseball and I love baseball at home, in [31:03] the summers when I would go to England, [31:05] I'd turn on the TV, I'd watch this test [31:07] cricket, like, "Oh, this is super cool." [31:09] But yes, exactly like you say, Ben, this [31:11] is the gentleman's game of gentleman's [31:13] games. You play it in like a white [31:16] V-neck cableknit sweater, right? In the [31:18] middle of the summer, by the way. Yes. [31:21] And the incentives are all funny, too. [31:22] It's not about swinging these big home [31:24] runs. Your goal is basically to hit [31:27] little line drives and keep it on the [31:29] ground and make sure that you're able to [31:30] score one run at a time, not six runs. [31:33] You have a lot of time over the course [31:36] of 5 days to let your strategy play out. [31:39] And so you're not trying to make the [31:41] absolute most use of every ball bold the [31:44] way that you are in modern versions of [31:46] cricket. To give you a little sense of [31:48] this test cricket and I believe one day [31:51] internationals as well, there are four [31:53] possible outcomes of the game. You can [31:57] win, you can lose, you can tie. Wait, so [32:01] what's the fourth? The fourth outcome is [32:03] a draw, which is different than a tie. A [32:06] tie is if the score is tied at the end [32:08] of the match, which almost never happens [32:10] because you're playing for at least [32:11] eight hours, if not five days. You know, [32:13] the scores are in the hundreds here. So, [32:15] the odds that they're going to be tied [32:17] are very, very low. I see. A draw [32:19] happens when one team is not able to [32:24] finish their innings in the time of the [32:28] match. So, if you get to the end of the [32:29] day, like, oh, sun goes down, it's time [32:32] for dinner, and all of your batsmen have [32:34] not yet gotten out in your innings. Oh, [32:37] well then you could be behind, ahead, [32:39] whatever. Like, oh, just didn't finish. [32:40] It's like a DNF. Did not finish. What? [32:42] Just a draw. And so then you have this [32:45] funny strategy where you're trying to [32:46] drag the game out if you're losing. If [32:49] you're behind and you're batting second [32:51] or in a test match in your second [32:52] innings if you're batting second and [32:53] you're behind. Yeah. You're just trying [32:54] to draw the game out. Amazing. All [32:57] right. So we're going to leave the world [32:58] of test cricket behind in the 70s. [33:01] There's a lot of test cricket still [33:02] played today, but Oh, yeah. It's still a [33:04] big thing for these big international [33:05] tournaments, the World Cup, all that. [33:07] That's one day internationals. This ODI [33:10] format. All of this amazing and [33:12] delicious sidebar is just to point out [33:14] that there's a lot of inventory here. [33:16] The Indian national team is playing 105 [33:19] days per year and the Sahara Group is [33:22] getting their logo on their white cablek [33:25] knit vests for $100,000 a year. I think [33:29] one day internationals they actually did [33:31] start wearing more athletic clothing. [33:33] That's right. That's correct. That's not [33:34] the white sweaters. Indeed. So lit here [33:38] now in 2005 when he finally gets on the [33:40] BCCI first thing he does is he goes to [33:42] Sahara and he says the price is going [33:44] up. It is now $1 million Ben as you were [33:48] saying per day of [33:51] competition. So you are going to go from [33:53] spending $100,000 a year to spending $15 [33:57] million per year. And oh by the way if [34:01] you don't want to do that that's fine. [34:02] I'm happy for you not to do that. I'm [34:05] then going to go put this out to auction [34:07] and we'll see who is willing to pay [34:08] that. Wow. To give you a sense of just [34:11] how much latent value there is here, I [34:13] don't think it goes to auction. I think [34:14] Sahara just says okay. Yeah, they're [34:16] very aware that this is a very good deal [34:18] even at this price. I mean, if you want [34:20] to reach the nation of India, there are [34:23] two ways to do it. Bollywood and [34:25] cricket. That's it. Yep. So when this [34:30] massive escalation happens in 2005, I [34:33] believe this is correct, [34:35] overnight, this becomes the highest paid [34:40] jersey logo deal of any sport on the [34:43] entire planet. Oh, interesting. So [34:46] basically not even commercial to now the [34:48] single largest logo sponsorship in the [34:51] world. And now why is LAT able to all of [34:54] a sudden extract this huge [34:55] record-breaking amount of value for this [34:58] sponsorship whereas before it was really [35:00] not even commercial? We alluded to it [35:03] before but the rise of the Indian middle [35:05] class is what's driving everything here. [35:08] So, one stat I saw was that in the early [35:11] 90s when we started our story a little [35:13] bit ago, Lot was first getting involved. [35:15] Disney and Star were entering the Indian [35:17] market. There were only about 2 million [35:20] households in India that had a [35:22] disposable income of $10,000 or greater. [35:24] Wow. By the time here we are now that [35:26] lit gets on the BCCI and is wrecking all [35:30] these deals, it's 10x that. So there's [35:33] call it 20 30 million households now in [35:36] India that are by that definition at [35:38] least middle class. Fast forward to [35:41] today it's another 10x plus that number. [35:45] You know there's 400 close to 500 [35:47] million people households in India that [35:51] have that level of spending. It's [35:53] actually even more. It's 550 million [35:55] people who are a part of India's middle [35:58] class. Now that middle class is defined [36:00] differently than the American middle [36:01] class. It's $7,000 to $45,000 in annual [36:05] income. But that really gives you a [36:07] sense. You said that in the early '90s [36:10] there were 2 million people that made [36:12] more than 10K and now half a billion [36:15] people make more than 7K. Yeah, those [36:18] numbers are pretty close. So we went [36:19] from 2 million to 500 plus million. That [36:23] is an emergence of the middle class in [36:25] unbelievably rapid succession there. And [36:27] I think the thing to keep in mind about [36:29] India is anytime you're saying a percent [36:32] of the population, [36:33] you're still talking about a large [36:35] number of people, right? The absolute [36:37] amount of people is huge. The middle [36:40] class in India today is 31% of the [36:42] population, but 31% of India is more [36:45] than all of America, right? Yeah. You [36:47] just said it was 550 million [36:49] people. Yes. I mean, full stop, pause, [36:52] let this sink in. The middle class in [36:55] India per this definition but still like [36:58] that is enough annual income that you [37:00] can spend it on consumer goods is bigger [37:03] than all of America. That's what's going [37:06] on here. Another stat we may as well [37:09] just start really contextualizing the [37:11] shift here. The Indian government says [37:13] that 250 million people have been lifted [37:17] out of poverty between 2015 and today [37:21] they lifted an entire America's worth of [37:23] adults out of poverty. Yeah. In India to [37:28] all of a sudden buying Pepsi, buying [37:30] cell phones, buying mobile data plans, [37:33] buying oh I don't know Nikes and Reebok. [37:37] So what's the next thing that lit does [37:40] after this Sahara deal? There's no gear [37:44] sponsor. There's no kit sponsor for the [37:45] team at this point in time. I think some [37:47] of the individual cricketers had had [37:50] some super cheap early deals with, you [37:52] know, Nike or Reebok or whatever. Lick [37:55] goes to the three big companies, Nike, [37:57] Adidas, Reebok, and says, "Hey, I'm [38:00] putting out forbid for auction being the [38:03] kit provider, the gear provider." kit [38:06] being the British term for athletic gear [38:08] or cycling. Or cycling. Yes. To the [38:11] Indian national team. And yeah, if you [38:13] want to win this, I'm expecting minimum [38:16] $50 million a year. Just to float a [38:19] number. So Nike comes in and wins at $52 [38:23] million a year. Oh, and by the way, [38:27] since Lot knows that there's going to be [38:28] competitive bidding between these three [38:30] shoe companies, he makes a media event [38:33] out of it. So he has them all submit [38:35] their bids in like sealed envelopes. He [38:37] has a whole press conference, opens the [38:39] envelopes in front of the media, makes [38:40] it a whole circus. It's like LeBron's [38:42] The Decision. So this is enormous. L [38:47] he's two months in to his tenure on the [38:50] BCCI board and he just found [38:52] $150 million a year. Whereas previously [38:57] sponsorships were nothing. They were [38:59] making call it 10 $15 million a year in [39:02] TV rights. He just 10xed that from [39:04] something that's worth far less than the [39:06] TV rights. Yep. So then he sets up a [39:11] personal meeting with Rupert Murdoch who [39:14] at this point in time via Star has all [39:17] the TV rights to Indian International [39:19] Cricket. Oh yes. But first before we [39:23] tell that story, we want to thank our [39:26] presenting partner JP Morgan Payments. [39:29] The modern fan experience, as we are [39:32] talking about here on the show, extends [39:34] far beyond just attending an event. [39:36] There are so many touch points across [39:38] the customer journey before, during, and [39:41] after. And when these involve commerce, [39:43] we as fans expect these to be fast, [39:46] consistent, and frictionless across [39:47] platforms. If you're a business, you [39:49] need secure, flexible technology that [39:51] simplifies these complex shopping [39:53] journeys. And this is where JP Morgan [39:55] Payments innovation is a star player, [39:58] helping businesses create an amazing [39:59] omni channel retail experience that [40:01] deepen their customer relationships. [40:03] Yep. So, let's stick with sports here [40:05] for a minute. As you all know, we did [40:07] Acquired Live at Chase Center last year. [40:09] Woo! The arena itself is known for being [40:11] incredibly innovative. And what's behind [40:13] that is a simple approach centered on [40:15] creating a world-class fan experience [40:17] prioritizing both convenience and [40:19] security. So, enter biometric payments. [40:22] Last year they introduced pay-by-face [40:24] biometric kiosks at concessions that are [40:26] powered by JP Morgan Payments. We [40:28] actually tried it at Chase Center [40:29] ourselves when we were there. The [40:31] technology is wild. It completely [40:33] streamlines the checkout process. 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So, Rupert [41:57] Murdoch back entering the picture. Ah, [42:01] well, Lot probably thinks here that it's [42:04] coming full circle. We're only just [42:06] getting started. He sets up a personal [42:10] meeting with Rupert Murdoch and he sets [42:13] the meeting for a friendly Friday [42:16] afternoon tea. How very cricket. And [42:19] remember at this point I think Star is [42:20] paying 1015 million a year for these TV [42:23] rights. Lit walks in, sits down and [42:26] says, "Mr. Murdoch, I am informing you [42:29] that your contract is terminated right [42:32] now. We are going to rebid the contract [42:35] and you are welcome to submit a bid. We [42:39] are mandating that the minimum bid is [42:42] $500 million for four years. And Murdoch [42:47] like basically spits his tea out. He's [42:48] like, "Uh, you're crazy." That's what [42:51] 10x the current value. Totally. So [42:54] obviously he's offended by that, but [42:56] he's like, "Who are you and why do you [42:59] think this is going to work?" Remember [43:01] Star and ESPN had merged. There's no [43:04] other sports channels in India. There's [43:07] no other sports in India. Rupert's like, [43:09] "Who's going to bid on this? You're all [43:12] hot air here. There's no way that this [43:14] is going to work. I'm the only game in [43:16] town. You're basically trying to extort [43:18] me and oh yeah, rip up my contract that [43:20] I have with the BCCI. You're two months [43:23] into the job. Like, get lost." Right. [43:25] You need me. You need me. Yeah. Hm. But [43:28] of course, Lot has a plan for this. He's [43:31] going to do just what he did back with [43:33] ESPN in the first place back in the day. [43:36] It's not that hard to set up a new [43:38] network to come in and bid on these [43:42] rights. And by the way, it is now [43:45] clearly, demonstrably, and provably so [43:48] much more valuable than back in the day. [43:51] We're now 15 years into the television [43:56] penetration of India, shall we say? [43:58] There are tons of other broadcasters and [44:00] cable channels out there. They're just [44:02] not sports channels. Well, what's a [44:04] sports channel? That's just a marketing [44:06] term. It's just a channel. You add [44:07] another channel. You make uh ABC Sports, [44:10] NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Fox Sports. [44:13] Anybody can do this. So, LI goes to [44:16] Sony, who's the number two broadcaster [44:18] in India. He goes to Sky from the UK and [44:21] says, "Hey, you want to enter India?" [44:23] And he ultimately goes to an Indian [44:26] entertainment company called Nimbus, [44:28] which was a broadcaster, but also didn't [44:30] have a sports channel. And he says to [44:32] all of them, "These rights are now [44:33] available. Minimum bid is 500 million [44:36] for 4 years. This is going to be very [44:38] profitable for you. It's very easy to [44:40] set up a sports network. I've already [44:42] done it. I will help you do it. You are [44:44] welcome to bid." Nimbus ends up winning [44:47] the auction with a [44:49] $620 million bid for four years. Wow. [44:53] They set up the Nimbus Sports Channel. [44:55] It uh I believe quickly becomes the [44:57] number one sports channel in India. I [44:58] mean there's nothing else like if you [45:00] got cricket, you're the number one [45:01] sports channel in India and Star and [45:03] Rupert are out in the cold. Wow. So, Lit [45:08] really did make the BCCI an economic [45:11] powerhouse where they really didn't have [45:12] material revenue before. And now [45:14] suddenly they have hundreds of millions [45:16] of dollars coming in what 200 million a [45:19] yearish between TV and sponsorships. [45:22] Yeah. They've got 150 million from [45:24] sponsorships and then they've got Yeah. [45:27] What's that? 25 from this. Yeah. And [45:29] then another 150 million from broadcast. [45:32] Yeah. So hundreds of millions of dollars [45:33] a year. Unbelievable. Totally [45:36] unbelievable. with more potential to [45:38] monetize beyond that. I mean, he got 150 [45:41] million from two sponsorships. You can [45:43] have more than two sponsors here. Yeah. [45:46] He completely commercialized the BCCI. [45:48] Transformative. You know, he would say [45:50] when he later gets kicked out of the [45:52] BCCI and there's tons of controversy and [45:54] everything we'll get into later. People [45:55] are accusing him of self-deing doing all [45:57] these things. He's like, I created [45:59] billions of dollars of value for cricket [46:02] in India, the BCCI, the government, all [46:05] the players involved from nothing. And [46:07] he's absolutely right. Yep. Absolutely [46:10] right. And by the way, he shut Rupert [46:12] Burdock out of all of [46:14] it. So, here we are now. He's won. He's [46:18] extracted his revenge. He's taken over [46:20] Indian cricket. He's created the single [46:23] biggest pool of money anywhere around [46:26] the globe in cricket as a sport. I mean, [46:28] this is way more money that we're [46:30] talking about here than England or [46:31] Australia or the West Indies or Sri [46:34] Lanka, New Zealand. You know, the other [46:36] cricket playing nations. England and [46:38] Australia are big media markets, but [46:40] they're not this big. Well, on a sheer [46:42] population basis, they just can't come [46:44] anywhere near India. Totally. And we're [46:47] not even at the end of 2005 yet. This [46:49] guy is a force. But as you might expect, [46:52] he's not quite satisfied. Shocking. If [46:55] we've learned anything studying all [46:57] these characters over the entire arc of [46:59] Acquired's history, they're never [47:00] satisfied. Totally. He's, I got to [47:03] assume, thinking about this [47:07] 105 days of competitive play that the [47:09] team is playing. You know, that's 105 [47:12] cricket matches. That's not a lot of [47:15] inventory. On the one hand, it's a lot, [47:18] but it's only one team that you're [47:20] talking about here. Playing 105 matches, [47:23] the NFL plays what? I think 285 games, [47:27] including the postseason. So, more than [47:30] double that. And that's the scarcest [47:31] sports media in the world. Yes. And the [47:35] only reason that the NFL plays that few [47:38] games is because the bodies of the [47:40] players just can't take anymore. They [47:42] would fall apart. Right. Major League [47:43] Baseball, almost 2500 games are played [47:47] per season. Yes, thousands of games. [47:51] Cricket is not like American football. [47:54] This sport was designed to be played [47:57] five days in a row. Yes, the cricketer's [47:59] bodies are not falling apart. There is a [48:02] lot more juice to squeeze here. So thus [48:05] sparks unquestionably truly [48:08] unquestionably this is in zero way a [48:11] controversial statement the most [48:13] brilliant most successful sports [48:16] entrepreneurial business plan of all [48:18] time. the Indian Premier League, a [48:22] domestic citybased cricket league in [48:26] India that lit is gonna set up in the [48:29] model of the very best elements of the [48:32] NFL, of the English Premier League, of [48:35] the NBA, of international cricket. Yep. [48:37] Of international cricket, leveraging the [48:39] assets that they have with the BCCI's [48:42] control over cricket. I mean, this is [48:45] something that is not emergent in any of [48:48] these other sports we're comparing to. [48:50] There's no BCCI for football in the US. [48:53] There's nobody telling the NFL what they [48:55] can and can't do. The BCCI is the one [48:59] who controls the players contracts with [49:02] how much they make, who decides what [49:04] leagues they can play in or can't play [49:06] in, who cuts media rights deals. This is [49:09] all happening by this organization [49:12] organization that lit now deacto [49:14] controls that is not the league. It's a [49:16] parent to any league or organized play. [49:20] And so you mentioned that with the [49:22] Indian Premier League, they get to learn [49:24] all this stuff from the other great [49:25] leagues, but they have this asset, this [49:26] structural advantage that no other [49:28] sports league in the world has, which is [49:30] the BCCI control. Absolutely. They [49:33] innovate beyond the other leagues, too. [49:34] Yeah, totally. To me, this is not a [49:36] controversial statement. The IPL is [49:38] better set up structurally than the NFL. [49:42] It is the most perfect sports league [49:45] that exists. All right. So, so how does [49:47] he do it? Yes. What is it? You're [49:49] telling me it's the most amazing thing [49:50] ever. Prove it. So, besides lit seeing [49:52] that there's a inventory opportunity to [49:55] expand cricket in India here beyond the [49:57] 105 or so days of competition that the [50:00] international team is playing. There's [50:03] also the perfect opportunity at this [50:06] moment within the cricketing world, [50:08] which is that the whole game itself is [50:11] undergoing a major [50:14] revolution. England had just introduced [50:18] a brand new version of the game. Up [50:20] until this point, there are only two [50:22] versions of cricket that were played [50:24] professionally. There's the test match [50:26] cricket, the five-day gentlemanly event [50:28] with the cable knit sweaters that we [50:29] talked about. And then there's the [50:30] one-day 8-hour matches that are for [50:33] international tournaments and [50:34] competitions. One day internationals. [50:36] Yep. Back home in England, cricket was [50:40] basically starting to become a dying [50:42] sport. The nation that invented the game [50:45] that was the home of everything sacred [50:48] in this sport in this industry. Empty [50:50] stadiums. I mean, truly empty. They had [50:52] the most incredible stadiums built for [50:54] cricket. And you look at these old [50:56] videos and just empty seats everywhere, [50:58] empty sections. And the only people [51:00] still left watching it are old men [51:03] basically. Y women have never really [51:06] cared and kids are like, I'm interested [51:09] in football, you know, European [51:10] football. Like I I don't care about [51:12] this. Not to mention, who can take five [51:14] days off work all day to go watch [51:17] something? Yeah. This is happening [51:18] during the day or even one day during [51:21] the international tournaments. Yes. It [51:23] is made for retired men or especially in [51:25] the old days the elite people who didn't [51:27] have jobs. Exactly. That was the whole [51:29] point of the [51:30] game. It was for the nobility. Yes. [51:34] Exactly. But not going to work in the [51:36] modern world. Yep. So in 2003 the [51:40] English cricket board finally realizes [51:42] like hey we're desperate. We got to do [51:44] something. So there was another form of [51:48] cricket that was mostly played [51:50] recreationally and by school teams that [51:53] was 20 over cricket. So rather than [51:56] these five-day events or the one-day [51:58] events, it was a limited number of balls [52:02] of pitches essentially to use the [52:04] baseball analogy for each side and that [52:06] was 20 overs. An over is six balls. Each [52:09] team gets 120 balls bowled to them and [52:12] you got to make do with just those 120 [52:15] balls. So all of a sudden you're going [52:17] from test cricket which is thousands of [52:20] balls bowled pitches equivalent in the [52:22] baseball world over 5 days. Then you've [52:25] got the one day international one day [52:27] version of the game hundreds. You're [52:29] going down to 240 total balls bowled 120 [52:34] for each side. Compare that to a Major [52:37] League Baseball game for instance has an [52:40] average of about 300 pitches per game [52:42] about 150 each side. So now all of a [52:44] sudden cricket went from like the boring [52:47] version of baseball to the more exciting [52:48] version of baseball purely and with this [52:51] just very interesting different thing. [52:53] The balls are scarce. You have to get [52:56] the most points possible based on a [52:58] small fixed number of opportunities to [53:00] hit it. Right? A baseball game can go on [53:04] forever. Pitches could go on forever, [53:06] extra innings, etc., etc. Nope. These [53:08] T20 games, it is a strict balls bold [53:12] count. Yep. It's tight. And that means [53:15] games take 2 and 1 half to three hours. [53:17] That means games can be played in prime [53:19] time in the evening for the very first [53:21] time in the sport. Finally, we have a [53:23] cricket for the masses. I mean, how was [53:26] anyone even supposed to watch these ODIs [53:27] unless it's on a Saturday? You now can [53:29] watch cricket every night of the week [53:31] because there's a three-hour prime time [53:33] format for everyone of every class to [53:36] watch. Yep. So, all of a sudden, you [53:38] start seeing these green shoots in [53:39] England 2003, 2004, 2005. Domestically, [53:43] they start playing T20. They start [53:45] televising the matches. Younger people [53:47] start paying attention again. There's a [53:50] revitalization. So, obviously, the [53:52] international game sees this. Lit sees [53:55] this. He's thinking about starting up a [53:57] domestic league in India. This is the [54:00] perfect opportunity. What an amazing [54:03] gift of a new format of the game. [54:06] Perfect for prime time. An incredible [54:09] opportunity. There's one other thing [54:10] that fell in their lap, which is the [54:13] fddy duddies who love test cricket [54:17] absolutely hated it. Yes. Which made it [54:20] more exciting. Yes. And so the way that [54:22] the original T20 was advertised, even [54:26] before we get to IPL, you just look at [54:29] there's a famous match of Australia [54:31] versus New Zealand. New Zealand doesn't [54:33] take it seriously at all. They come out [54:35] with crazy hairds and they're wearing [54:37] whatever. T20 is kind of a joke from the [54:40] start and once the players do that, then [54:42] the advertising kind of leans into that. [54:45] This is not a serious sport. This is [54:47] like party time and you know we just [54:50] have to be playing cricket. This is all [54:52] but the Savannah Bananas version of [54:54] baseball. Yes. Which we'll talk about [54:55] the Savannah Bananas later for folks who [54:59] uh don't know or who are not in the US. [55:02] Savannah Bananas is like the Harlem [55:03] Globe Troters of baseball. It's a purely [55:05] entertainment spectacle. It's a [55:07] spectacle for sure. And IPL is not quite [55:09] that. I mean, the T20 is definitely [55:12] competitive, but the old-timers look at [55:15] it as a joke, even though it's a highly [55:17] skilled thing, and that's a perfect [55:19] spark. Totally. So, the Australian [55:22] domestic T20 league that gets started [55:25] right around this same time, to give you [55:27] a sense of this, is called the Big Bash [55:29] League. That's the image that they're [55:31] projecting. And the big bash league is [55:32] like they are legitimately a real sports [55:33] league today and probably the second [55:36] biggest, second best T20 cricket league [55:38] in the world behind the IPL, but this is [55:41] not targeted at the test cricket loving [55:43] audience, right? And it sends the right [55:45] message, too, because you were trying to [55:46] bash the ball. This is a game of [55:48] batsmen. There's an amazing moment that [55:51] happens. I forget exactly which [55:52] competition it's in, but someone gets [55:53] six sixes in a row. It's like the most [55:56] amazing thing ever to watch. It's [55:58] basically home run derby. Yes. When [56:00] there's no limit on the number of balls, [56:02] you're trying to play for a draw. If [56:04] you're behind, you're trying to make [56:05] things go longer. Now, all of a sudden, [56:07] it completely changes the strategy of [56:09] the game. You only have 120 balls and [56:11] you need to maximize your score. Y So, [56:13] rather than trying to run out balls or [56:15] whatnot, like sixes become way more [56:18] important. Yep. So, Lot knows this is [56:21] the perfect opportunity. He goes back to [56:24] IMG who remember he had initially [56:26] partnered with with Disney and ESPN way [56:28] back in the day to start broadcasting [56:31] cricket in India in the first place and [56:32] says hey I need to hire you as [56:35] consultants from the BCCI we're going to [56:37] set up a whole new league and Andrew [56:40] Wildblood who runs IMG's India [56:42] operations becomes essentially LAT's [56:45] partner in setting up how are we going [56:47] to structure this what are we going to [56:48] create as the business plan of this new [56:50] league we've got some time. We've just [56:53] done these major rights deals and [56:55] sponsorship deals for [56:56] BCCI. Let's be really thoughtful about [56:59] this. We'll plan to start it in 2009. [57:02] So, here we are. We're now in end of [57:04] 2006, beginning in 2007. We got two to [57:07] three years to set this up. And then in [57:10] the spring of [57:12] 2007, a rebel [57:15] league starts up under their nose in [57:21] India. Another domestic T20 league with [57:25] city-based franchises announces that [57:28] they're going to launch and they're [57:30] going to call it the Indian Cricket [57:33] League and it's backed by the [57:35] broadcaster [57:37] ZTV. Not only was it called the Indian [57:40] Cricket League, which is just a great [57:42] name, that is actually an entity name [57:45] that Lit had registered in the '9s. Yes. [57:48] I don't know if Lot was thinking he [57:50] would actually call IPL the Indian [57:52] Cricket League, but then something else [57:54] launches called the Indian Cricket [57:55] League. Yeah, it's a good point. This [57:58] opportunity for a domestic cricket [58:00] league was not some like aha brainstorm [58:03] that lit had once he took over BCCI. [58:06] Everybody knew that this would be a huge [58:08] opportunity, right? This is like social [58:10] networking in 2004. The time just wasn't [58:12] right yet. So, he had been thinking [58:14] about it all the way back when he was [58:15] first working with Disney to fight [58:16] against Star and enter the market, but [58:18] the timing just wasn't right. All right. [58:20] So, what is this Indian cricket league? [58:22] Where did it come from? What is ZTV? So, [58:24] way back in 1996, Subash Chandra, the [58:28] founder of ZTV, kind of recognized, hey, [58:32] exactly what you're saying, David. I'm a [58:34] TV distributor. He owned a satellite TV [58:36] company. He saw exactly what Llet saw. [58:39] Sports are the most important thing. [58:40] India increasingly cares more and more [58:42] and more about cricket. This is going to [58:44] be the perfect thing to distribute over [58:46] my airwaves. 96 to04 he's trying to get [58:49] the rights to cricket and not getting [58:51] them. Finally in 2004 he bid the highest [58:54] for domestic cricket in India but the [58:56] BCCI still did not award the rights to [59:00] him. Oh interesting. So this must have [59:02] been right before lit joined the board [59:04] and then restructured the whole thing. [59:07] Must have been right around that time. [59:09] Finally, two more years goes by. He [59:12] wins. He gets a 5-year deal between the [59:16] BCCI and ZTV for the exclusive rights to [59:19] broadcast cricket. Oh wow. I didn't even [59:22] find this that they had a deal with [59:24] BCCI. They had a deal. Wow. Oh, one year [59:28] into the deal, there's something that [59:29] passes called the sports broadcasting [59:31] bill. And this requires broadcasters to [59:35] share feeds in real time, like live [59:38] feeds without ads directly back to the [59:42] stateowned broadcast channel. [59:46] Interesting. Which of course destroyed [59:48] the profitability of this enterprise [59:51] that ZTV is trying to create here of [59:53] broadcasting cricket. if they have to [59:56] give away the very thing they're [59:57] collecting without an ability to [59:59] generate revenue on it. So BCCI ignores [60:02] ZTV's attempt to renegotiate this [60:05] because at this point in time lit is [60:07] starting to work on setting up IPL. [60:09] Yeah. And I think the ZTV side of the [60:11] story is where did the sports [60:13] broadcasting bill come from? Why won't [60:15] they renegotiate? I think David, you are [60:18] correctly reading into the BCCI is [60:20] starting to say h just hold tight. We're [60:22] going to make some changes here. Not [60:24] knowing what's going on yet with IPL, [60:25] ZTV is like, "This is so weird that, you [60:29] know, I'm not making any money on this [60:31] thing that I finally got rights to, that [60:32] I really want the rights to. BCCI won't [60:35] negotiate with me, so I'm just going to [60:37] start a new T20 league outside of the [60:39] BCCI universe without their [60:41] cooperation." Ah, so this is spring 2007 [60:44] when they announce ICL. Yes. The VCCI [60:48] immediately says any players who sign up [60:50] for the Indian Cricket League are banned [60:52] for life from playing for India National [60:54] League or any other domestic [60:56] tournaments. This includes if you are a [60:58] young player who had never even played [61:01] for the Indian National team yet. [61:03] Chandra is freaking out. He's like, [61:04] "Wait, wait, what?" So he then tries to [61:07] make this big appeal. The economic [61:09] benefit that's going to come from a [61:11] domestic league like this, everyone's [61:13] going to watch this. that's going to [61:14] promote the local economies of all these [61:16] places. We're going to pull in talent [61:18] from all these other countries, which by [61:19] the way, this is straight up the Premier [61:22] League playbook. This is what IPL ends [61:23] up doing. It's going to be broadcast on [61:25] ZTV. I'm going to fund a million dollar [61:28] prize pool. BCCI High ignores this [61:31] again. And in fact, what they did was [61:33] they went and pulled pensions away from [61:35] any retired cricketers who then went and [61:38] joined the ICL. Amazing. They're raising [61:41] the stakes. They're saying no one who [61:43] has any affiliation with us at all can [61:45] do this. So then other state [61:47] organizations like BCCI the Bengali [61:50] equivalent recognized that this was [61:52] going to be an issue if entrepreneurs [61:54] started going around the state [61:55] organizations. So they also banned their [61:58] players from joining the ICL. So this [62:01] really hamstrung the whole thing before [62:03] it could even get going. And then [62:05] finally, I'll flash forward one year and [62:06] then we'll come back. In ' 09, the BCCI [62:09] announced an amnesty and all players [62:11] could return to official cricket without [62:13] penalties if they cut all ties with the [62:15] ICL. So that was the final nail in the [62:17] coffin and then in 2009 they would shut [62:20] down. Yeah. So they do play actually two [62:22] seasons, 2007, 2008 and into 2009 and [62:25] then they fold. But this was someone [62:27] making a a true run at what if we go [62:30] around the state institutions, these [62:33] regulatory bodies of cricket and try to [62:35] start something on our own. It just [62:37] didn't work. Period. You can't go around [62:39] them. Well, I mean, this brings up [62:41] probably the most important power and [62:44] playbook theme that I was going to save [62:45] to talk about later, but we should talk [62:47] about now. The cornered resource of the [62:48] players. If you are creating or running [62:51] a sports league, it is of paramount [62:54] importance that you have the best [62:56] players in the world. If you do not have [62:57] the best players in the world, you're [62:59] toast. Nobody wants to watch the second [63:02] best players in the world play each [63:04] other. Well, I think that's right, but [63:06] it is a two-sided equation. Like BCCI [63:08] worked themselves into the choke point [63:10] or ended up in the choke point or the [63:12] lynch pin or the aggregator position [63:14] where they aggregated both all the best [63:16] players, at least the Indian best [63:17] players and the broadcast rights. It's [63:22] the two different things that Delm did [63:25] under his term at BCCI. both the [63:27] centralized contracts for players and [63:29] the centralized media rights that they [63:31] had the Supreme Court approved right to [63:34] auction off to any capitalist companies [63:36] that want to bid for these rights. So [63:38] they own the two things that mattered. [63:40] Yes, that is absolutely true. The [63:42] players are the primary thing though. [63:43] The broadcasters will follow the [63:44] players. The Star is desperate to [63:47] rebroadcast cricket at this point in [63:49] time. They would have loved for the ICL [63:51] to take off and be able to broadcast [63:53] that and go around the BCCI, but it just [63:55] wasn't a compelling product. And the [63:58] BCCI is basically using the mafia [64:00] tactics of like, hey, if you even think [64:02] about going and playing there, you are [64:04] banned for life from at that point in [64:06] time what really mattered, which was the [64:08] chance to play international cricket for [64:09] India. Yep. So LE and Andrew Wildblood [64:13] and IMG like, okay, we got to accelerate [64:16] this. We were planning to launch what [64:19] becomes the IPL in 2009. We need to [64:21] launch now, next season, April 2008. I [64:26] will say given how rushed this was, it [64:28] is shocking how well it is all set up. [64:30] All these dynamics, all the rules and [64:33] auctions and everything about this [64:34] league are so well balanced given they [64:36] pulled it forward a year. Absolutely. [64:39] It's also lucky for them that they do [64:42] pull this forward in response to the [64:43] competitive threat from the ICL because [64:46] there's another media marketing gift [64:49] which is that [64:50] unexpectedly India ends up winning the [64:54] first T20 World Cup that summer. Yes. [64:58] And they were initially really dragging [65:00] their feet. They were resistant to T20. [65:03] They already had ODI. They loved it. And [65:05] I think you may have more details than I [65:07] do. three of their best players didn't [65:10] go to the World Cup. So, what happened [65:12] was T20 was introduced by England in [65:16] 2003. It takes a couple years for other [65:18] countries to catch on, start playing it. [65:20] Like you said, Ben, you know, there was [65:21] that Australia, New Zealand thing. 2007 [65:24] is when the IC finally starts to [65:26] recognize ah maybe there's something to [65:28] this and this is the first T20 World Cup [65:32] that they organized. So they've been [65:33] doing the one day international world [65:34] cup for years all the way back to before [65:36] 1983 when India won it. But 2007 is the [65:39] first T20 version of this that they're [65:41] putting on. Well the sort of first team [65:44] of the Indian national team. They'd [65:45] already just played the one day [65:47] international version. So they were [65:49] tired. The best players, you know, look [65:51] tired. I think tired is in quotes for [65:53] cricketers. They can play any day of the [65:54] week. But they weren't that interested. [65:57] Then the star players, they're like, [65:58] "Ah, let's let the young guys have a go [66:00] at this new tournament." [66:03] So the young guys go and the tournament [66:05] is being held in South Africa. They go [66:08] over there not expected to win. The [66:10] other countries are sending, you know, [66:12] their first teams to this. [66:15] Amazingly, the young guys end up winning [66:18] the tournament in incredibly dramatic [66:22] fashion. And guess who they are playing [66:24] in the final? Pakistan. Yes. So during [66:29] the group play stage, the early stages [66:31] of the tournament, the Indian team is [66:34] playing the England team. England, home [66:38] of cricket. Yes. Massive underdogs here. [66:40] You've got the young Indian players. Lit [66:43] has come over of course to South Africa [66:45] to watch the World Cup. He's working on [66:47] the IPL accelerated launch in the [66:50] meantime. And he's like, "Okay, great. [66:51] We're playing in T20 World Cup. This is [66:53] an opportunity. I want to create some [66:56] exciting moments here. So he tells all [66:58] the guys on the team, if any of you hit [67:03] sixes in an over. So you know, an over [67:06] like we talked about is six balls in T20 [67:08] 20 overs. This is six home runs in an at [67:11] bat back to back essentially. Yes. Very, [67:14] very, very difficult to do. Oh, and [67:16] they're bouncing the ball, right? That's [67:19] you're trying to hit a ball that is [67:21] bouncing somewhat unpredictably. The [67:24] bowlers can either bounce the ball or [67:26] throw it like a baseball pitch. They can [67:27] do whatever they want. You don't know [67:29] what they're going to do. And it might [67:30] have spin. You know, like in baseball, [67:32] you can throw a curveball. A curveball [67:34] curves a little more than a fast ball [67:36] does, but it can't move that much. When [67:38] you spin the ball and then it hits the [67:39] ground, it can move a lot. So, you [67:42] really don't know what's coming. Not to [67:43] mention a running start. The pitcher has [67:45] a running start. The bowler. So Lit [67:48] tells these kids, remember they're kids [67:50] from India, not from wealthy families [67:52] here. If any of you can hit sixs in and [67:55] over, this is going to be such a [67:57] dramatic event. I know this is going to [67:58] capture the public's imagination here. I [68:01] will personally give you a Porsche [68:06] 911. I swear to God this is true. [68:10] Wow. The Acquired Universe crossover. [68:12] The crossovers are amazing. And I [68:15] believe in fact that when they were [68:17] talking about this in the locker room, [68:19] he might have first offered a Rolex and [68:22] then the players were like, "No, that's [68:24] not enough for doing like I need a [68:25] Porsche 911." That's amazing. I think [68:27] that might be the story. Either way, to [68:30] drive a Porsche 911 in India period is [68:33] like that's a big statement, especially [68:36] back in 2007. For a young kid, this is [68:38] the pinnacle of anything they could ever [68:40] dream of. Yep. So they're motivated. So [68:43] they're playing England in the group [68:44] round and one of the young players, [68:47] Yavra Singh, is up at bat. He hits one [68:51] six. He hits two sixes, three sixes, [68:55] four sixes. By God, he hits [68:59] sixes in an over. The crowd's going [69:01] insane against England in South Africa. [69:03] The crowd's going insane. I believe [69:07] something like less than 20 people have [69:10] ever done this in history even to this [69:12] day. This is one of the rarest feats [69:14] certainly in cricket if not all of [69:16] sports and he did it. And so he comes [69:20] running over to Lot who L's there in the [69:22] stands like jingling his hand back and [69:24] forth be like I want the keys my [69:26] Porsche. My Porsche. [69:28] Amazing. And he gets his Porsche. And [69:31] Lot would tell you that he paid for it [69:32] out of his own money. I'm sure Lallet's [69:35] quote on this is that lit up the Indian [69:38] television screen. It turned the entire [69:40] country upside down. Everybody started [69:42] to tune in. So they win that match [69:44] against England. Next thing you know, [69:46] they find themselves in the final [69:48] against Pakistan. Now the Indian [69:52] national team, the first team at this [69:53] point in time, despite India being the [69:55] biggest market for cricket in the world, [69:57] was not that good. I believe they had [70:00] not won a an ODI, a one day [70:02] international world cup in quite a [70:04] while. Here now these young guys, the [70:07] T20 team is in the finals against [70:09] Pakistan. They win on the last over. An [70:14] incredibly exciting dramatic finish. The [70:18] television audience back home in India [70:21] for this was 400 million people. Wow. [70:25] The numbers are just staggering. When [70:27] India plays Pakistan in cricket, it is a [70:28] national holiday. That game, that match [70:32] was the 10th most watched TV event of [70:36] the year, period, around the whole [70:38] globe. Wow. The young team comes home. L [70:42] calls up Nike before they leave South [70:44] Africa. And he's like, I need open air [70:46] tour buses for the team, for the whole [70:49] retinue. You meet us at the airport. we [70:51] are going to do a parade to the stadium [70:53] in Mumbai and we're going to have a big [70:56] huge victory celebration just like they [70:58] do in Western sports after they win a [71:00] World Cup. They come home, the team [71:02] arrives at the Mumbai airport at 6:00 [71:04] a.m. The crowds are packed. There are 4 [71:08] million people on the streets. It takes [71:11] them 11 hours to get from the airport to [71:13] the stadium. It's all televised all [71:15] across the country. It's like a national [71:17] holiday and it is the most perfect [71:21] fertile ground in which to insert the [71:24] imminently about to launch IPL. Amazing. [71:27] Which will lead us to the specific rules [71:31] of how the IPL works and the dramatic [71:34] auction for the initial teams. But [71:37] first, this is a great time to thank [71:39] good friend of the show, Service. Now, [71:42] today we want to focus on a new angle of [71:44] the company data. We've mentioned that [71:46] Service Now is the AI operating system [71:48] for the enterprise, helping automate [71:50] tasks and workflows across different [71:52] departments from IT to HR, finance, [71:54] customer service, and more. They've laid [71:56] the groundwork to connect every corner [71:57] of the business and enable automation to [71:59] happen. But there's one key thing [72:01] underlying all this, and that's the data [72:03] that makes it all useful. After all, AI [72:05] is only as powerful as the platform it's [72:06] built into and the data it has access [72:08] to. So a couple years ago, Service Now [72:10] realized that having a coherent set of [72:12] data was going to be essential as the [72:14] world got more complicated with AI. In [72:16] the old world, each department ran [72:18] applications that were creating their [72:19] own data in their own silos. And when AI [72:22] agents came around and needed to [72:24] communicate across all that data and [72:26] across departments, that was going to be [72:28] untenable. So, Service Now introduced [72:30] workflow data fabric, their way to unify [72:33] all that data across the enterprise and [72:35] let workflows and AI agents have [72:37] real-time secure access to data from any [72:40] source. So, what use cases does this [72:42] enable? Well, a big one is the [72:44] unification of structured and [72:45] unstructured data. Let's say your order [72:48] management system was storing discrete [72:50] numbers about orders from a big [72:51] customer, but your customer's support [72:54] chat system also had big blobs of text. [72:57] And on top of that, someone was tracking [72:59] some one-off rebates in a separate Excel [73:02] file. Oh, that would never happen. [73:03] Never. And you need an AI agent to make [73:06] a quick and correct decision regarding [73:09] inventory forecasting based on all that [73:11] disparate information. That's where [73:13] workflow data fabric is great. One [73:15] integrated view across the whole [73:16] business. This is just one way that [73:19] Service Now unifies silos across your [73:21] business so your employees can stop [73:23] swivel sharing between apps to enter the [73:25] same data in different places and just [73:27] make better decisions faster. If you [73:29] want to learn more, go to service [73:31] now.com/acquired and just tell them that [73:32] Ben and David sent you. All right, so [73:35] David, India's coming hot off winning [73:38] the T20 World Cup cricket final and it's [73:42] time for the birth of the Indian Premier [73:44] League. Yep. We have finally arrived at [73:46] what we've been hitting at the whole [73:47] episode, just the sheer brilliance of [73:49] how IPL is architected. So, if you are [73:52] from a clean sheet of paper trying to [73:55] design the perfect sport league, there [73:58] are two things that you need to really [74:00] try and maximize to make it appealing to [74:02] an audience. First is that it needs to [74:05] be the best place in the world to [74:08] showcase human skill and achievement in [74:11] that sport. I.e. You need the best [74:13] players in the world playing there. Two [74:15] though, and this is where a lot of [74:17] sports leagues go wrong. You need [74:20] uncertainty about the outcome. You need [74:23] competitive par amongst the teams in the [74:26] league. This is the any given Sunday [74:28] element of the NFL that has been the key [74:31] critical ingredient to making the NFL [74:33] the most valuable sports property in the [74:35] world. Every little year they're [74:37] tweaking things here and there to try [74:39] and make it a little bit more balanced. [74:41] The NFL would love nothing more than [74:42] every team to go eight and eight and [74:45] then have an incredibly competitive who [74:47] knows what's going to happen playoff [74:48] situation. It was almost a disaster what [74:51] happened when the Chiefs almost won [74:53] three Super Bowls in a row. That was so [74:55] unn that that was a possibility. It took [74:58] them a hundred years, but they became [74:59] wizards of that competitive balance. And [75:02] David, I'll say one quick thing. It's [75:04] not to create the best sports league. [75:06] It's to create the best business. Yes. I [75:09] was taking it as taught logical that [75:11] that is what you are trying to achieve. [75:12] If you want to create the best business [75:15] out of sports, you need it to be the [75:17] most entertaining version of that sport [75:20] which means you need uncertainty as much [75:22] as possible. Now importantly this does [75:25] not mean you are simply creating [75:28] spectacle and controversy and [75:30] entertainment without quality sport. You [75:33] know that would be the Harlem Globe [75:35] Trotters. That would be the Savannah [75:36] Bananas. amazing, incredible businesses [75:38] and products never going to be the [75:40] biggest thing in the world in their [75:41] sports. Correct. And on top of that, it [75:44] has to remain a game of skill, not [75:46] chance. So, it can't be pure BS [75:49] entertainment show, and it can't be two [75:52] subject to randomness. It has to be the [75:54] best people competing in skill against [75:57] each other to create the most thrilling [76:00] product, but in the most balanced game [76:03] design that you could possibly offer. [76:06] Yep. So, because of everything we've [76:08] talked about to this point in the [76:09] episode, the first part of getting the [76:12] best players in the world, that was [76:14] actually pretty easy for the IPL. That's [76:16] what created the opportunity, assuming [76:18] it was birthed out of the BCCI. Yes. If [76:20] it had come from elsewhere, it would [76:21] have been a non-starter and impossible. [76:23] Correct. The BCCI has cornered resource [76:26] access to the best talent in the world. [76:28] Yep. because they have all the money and [76:30] they have the Indian fans who care about [76:31] watching the best Indian players and [76:33] they have essentially veto right over [76:34] the best Indian players playing anywhere [76:36] else. Now the trickier one, competitive [76:39] par. This is where so many leagues go [76:43] wrong. To get competitive parody among [76:47] the teams on the field, you need every [76:51] franchise to have access to the same [76:54] opportunity to win, no matter how much [76:57] money they have or how much money the [76:59] ownership group has outside of the [77:02] franchise or how big of a market they're [77:04] playing in. Exactly. Or how good they [77:07] were last year. You can't throw the [77:10] board up in the air too much every [77:11] single year because you need some [77:13] continuity of fan base, but you also [77:15] kind of can't really allow for dynasty [77:17] creation. There's a million little ways [77:20] that a misalignment could get in there [77:22] and ruin competitive balance. And you [77:24] have to think through all the different [77:26] variables and balance them all. Yep. And [77:29] we'll get into this later in the [77:30] episode, but here in the US, I think [77:32] this is where Major League Baseball has [77:34] gone really, really, really wrong over [77:36] the last set of decades. Yeah, it's the [77:37] Yankees. It's the Dodgers. They've never [77:39] successfully implemented a salary cap in [77:41] baseball. And so, guess who's in the [77:43] World Series? The New York team and the [77:45] LA team. Yep. And then the worst example [77:47] of this is the European soccer leagues. [77:49] It's the top two, five franchises at the [77:53] top that are spending the most money, [77:54] buying the best players, and winning [77:56] every year. And you have owners that are [77:58] willing to spend hundreds and hundreds [78:00] of millions of dollars on players and [78:02] essentially run the teams in the red [78:05] because they have to spend so much money [78:06] on players to win. Yep. So now think [78:09] about setting up this new league in [78:11] India. For reasons I'll get into in a [78:13] sec. You need to have a diverse [78:16] ownership group. As in you can't just [78:19] have super wealthy industrialists owning [78:22] all of these teams. But if you look at [78:24] Indian society at this point in time, [78:26] it's so bifurcated between the [78:28] billionaires of these conglomerates, the [78:30] Amanis of the world and etc., etc., you [78:33] know, the Tata family and then other [78:36] people who you would want involved, but [78:38] are going to have nowhere near the same [78:40] amount of godlike resources that these [78:42] other people have. Coming out of the [78:44] '9s, and it's starting to change already [78:45] here in the mid 2000s, it's essentially [78:48] an impoverished nation with a very thin [78:51] slice of billionaires. Yep. So, as [78:53] you're setting up these franchises, you [78:56] need to make them no-brainer investments [78:57] for whoever makes them. And you can't [78:59] have this have and have not dynamic. So, [79:02] the first order of business, which is [79:04] the easiest one, is stadiums. So, Ben, [79:07] you were mentioning teams running in the [79:08] red in the English Premier League. This [79:11] is, I think, beyond just overpaying for [79:13] players, the biggest problem in the [79:16] English Premier League, which is a lot [79:18] of teams own their stadiums and then the [79:20] debt payments that you got to make on [79:22] these stadiums are just crippling. This [79:25] is soccer for anyone who's not a Premier [79:26] League fan. Yeah, exactly. You know, [79:28] these are hundreds of millions, if not [79:30] billion dollar edififices that you have [79:32] these teams funding and owning through [79:35] debt and then the debt payments are just [79:37] astronomical on top of astronomical [79:40] player salaries that they're playing. [79:42] So, first thing that Lit and Angie [79:45] Wildlood and IMG decide as they're [79:46] setting up the league, no debt. No team [79:49] is allowed to have debt and de facto, no [79:54] team will own their stadiums. And the [79:56] driving force of all this is the teams [79:58] have to be profitable because we want to [80:01] incentivize this diverse group of people [80:04] to own them. Y you need to make it so [80:06] that if you are entering this auction [80:10] for the first eight teams, you sort of [80:12] have capp downside. So thing number one, [80:15] make sure that they're not going to have [80:17] insane stadium debt right out of the [80:19] gate. Yep. Well, guess what? India [80:22] already has pretty big cricket stadiums [80:24] in all the cities that you would want to [80:27] put franchises in. And who owns and [80:29] controls those stadiums? The BCCI. The [80:32] state cricket associations which all [80:33] roll up to the BCCI. So, problem solved. [80:36] Problem solved. Awesome. So, next and [80:40] most important is what happens to [80:43] meteors deals for broadcasting the games [80:46] and central sponsorships within the [80:48] league. Are media rights deals [80:50] negotiated by each team individually [80:53] like they are in Major League Baseball [80:54] or are they going to be negotiated [80:56] centrally and split evenly amongst the [80:58] teams like they are in the NFL? [81:00] Obviously, there is a superior model [81:02] here. And hey, guess what? The BCCI and [81:06] LLET are already in position to run this [81:08] as a central model because they already [81:10] do that for the international cricket [81:12] rights of the BCCI that LLT has just [81:14] hugely successfully done the $620 [81:17] million deal for. Yep. So, okay, we're [81:20] going central rights and then we're [81:22] going to distribute that central revenue [81:25] from both sponsorships and TV rights [81:27] equally to all the teams. But as LLET [81:31] and IMG are thinking about how are we [81:34] going to maximize the TV rights deal [81:37] that we'll do for this new IPL, this new [81:41] domestic cricket league. They kind of [81:44] have a problem from the success that [81:48] they just had selling the international [81:50] rights. And that problem is they already [81:53] saturated the entire market of buyers [81:58] for this form of entertainment being [82:01] cricket broadcast in India. Yes, there [82:03] are other broadcasters who would love to [82:05] have these rights, but ultimately the [82:07] end buyers are the consumer brands that [82:09] are buying advertising against this [82:12] programming. And the $620 million rights [82:15] deal was so big that they just absorbed [82:18] the entire market of Cricut advertisers. [82:22] Yes. Basically, the broadcasters who now [82:26] own those rights took on such a big [82:28] liability that they're trying like crazy [82:31] to get their salesforce to go and sell [82:33] as many ads as possible. Get Pepsi, get [82:36] wireless carriers, car companies, etc., [82:39] etc. And keep in mind this is something [82:41] I didn't realize until I mean last night [82:43] like the end of my research. India's [82:46] advertising market was historically [82:48] small. So the entire total addressable [82:52] market for advertising not digital [82:54] advertising not mobile advertising in [82:56] 2008 in India was2 to3 billion. Right? [83:00] And a huge chunk of that just went to [83:03] international cricket. So even to break [83:06] even on these rights, those broadcast [83:08] networks now need to go sell what was [83:10] it? $600 million. Yeah. $620 million [83:14] over four years. So call it 150ish [83:17] million a year. So assuming it's a $2 [83:19] billion ad market, they need to go sell [83:22] and take up 5% of the entire advertising [83:25] market per year just advertising during [83:29] cricket games. This is before the IBL, [83:31] right? So that is a real liability. They [83:34] are signing up even to break even to go [83:36] sell 5% of the ads. They probably need [83:38] to sell like 10% of the ads to turn it [83:40] into a real business in the entire [83:41] country for that year across all [83:43] products. So this creates to your point [83:45] this new problem for lit and the gang [83:48] creating the IPL. Where are we going to [83:49] get the money? You now need to go find a [83:52] whole new set of advertisers on top of [83:54] that you've just sold to go and buy a [83:57] new rights package to advertise into [83:59] that new rights package. So lit actually [84:01] has a great amazing quote about this [84:04] dynamic in the way only lit can speak. [84:07] Here's the quote. Being the big daddy [84:10] for all sporting events in India already [84:13] with the BCCI bilaterals which the [84:15] international matches bilaterals against [84:17] other countries. All the money that was [84:20] there in the market that brands had for [84:22] spending was consumed. There were no [84:24] more budgets left. We had sucked it all [84:26] out by taking the price of BCCI in [84:29] aggregate from a few million dollars to [84:31] a billion dollars. I had already sucked [84:33] that money out. And so when I looked at [84:37] where are we going to get the money to [84:39] make IPL work, I needed women and [84:41] children. God, it sounds diabolical in [84:44] his words. He's spot on. It's exactly [84:47] what the dynamic is. Yep. And again, [84:50] back to the now league dynamics of [84:52] setting up this league versus BCCI just [84:55] running the one international team. [84:57] Again, look at the NFL. It is super [84:59] important that your central revenue [85:01] stream of your TV rights deals and your [85:03] central sponsorships that that be very, [85:05] very large and that that be the most [85:07] important revenue stream for your teams [85:08] because that's what keeps competitive [85:10] parody. The risk to the NFL's model is [85:13] that the Dallas Cowboys or the San [85:15] Francisco 49ers start making too much [85:18] local revenue and then they're making [85:20] more money than the other teams and all [85:21] of a sudden the balance is out of whack. [85:23] Yep. Although theoretically the salary [85:25] cap keeps that in check. Ah well we'll [85:27] come back to that in a minute. Okay. So [85:30] you would think they're kind of between [85:31] a rock and a hard place here. And this [85:33] is where LIT and IMG's just [85:37] incredible entrepreneurial genius comes [85:40] in. [85:41] They say we are going to make the IPL [85:44] into an entirely different product with [85:48] a different target advertiser and [85:50] sponsor than our international cricket [85:53] by having a different audience. Yes, [85:56] they need to attract women to view the [85:59] game and then advertisers who are going [86:02] to advertise products at women for IPL. [86:05] So totally different market segments in [86:08] terms of advertisers. Essentially, you [86:10] need to make the product one where if [86:12] mom sits down or if your sister sits [86:14] down and throws something on for the [86:15] night, she's going to pick IPL versus [86:17] whatever else she was going to put on. [86:19] Yes. And whatever else she was going to [86:21] put on were soap operas. So, I'm going [86:24] to read a quote here from Andrew [86:26] Wildwood at IMG who was Lett's partner. [86:28] There were a number of guiding [86:30] principles behind how we put IPL [86:32] together. One was that it should reflect [86:34] the characteristics of modern India. So [86:36] energetic, colorful, noisy, exciting. [86:40] Two, it should not compete with the [86:43] other forms of cricket, but rather it [86:47] should compete with other forms of [86:48] entertainment. So that's evening prime [86:51] time view. Not only is India somewhat [86:54] short in terms of supply of sports [86:56] content, it's actually quite short in [86:59] terms of general entertainment content. [87:01] Apart from Bollywood, Lallet and I [87:03] agreed that we didn't want to compete [87:05] with other cricket. We wanted to compete [87:08] with the soap operas. We therefore [87:11] needed to create IPL in the image of a [87:14] soap opera. So that if you didn't watch [87:16] last night's episode, you're not in the [87:19] conversation at the water cooler the [87:20] next morning. Most households in India [87:23] were single television homes and women [87:26] control the remote control watching soap [87:28] opers at night. The man of the house had [87:30] little to say in what was seen. So in [87:32] order to create a successful television [87:33] product, we had to make something that [87:35] women would be attracted to. And that's [87:37] what caused us to bring in Bollywood. H [87:41] no other sports league in the world has [87:43] done what IPL has done here. Today, IPL [87:46] viewership is entirely 50/50 gender [87:49] parody between men and women. And the [87:52] reason that that is the case is because [87:54] they bring Bollywood in to the ownership [87:56] groups. So Bollywood and cricket were [87:59] and still are the two biggest things by [88:01] far in India as Andrew Wildwood was [88:03] saying like there is no number three [88:04] it's Bollywood and cricket and when it [88:07] comes to Bollywood there is one star [88:09] that shines brighter than everyone else [88:12] so there's a quote from Manoj Badali who [88:14] is the principal owner of the Rajasthan [88:16] Royals and wrote a book about his [88:18] experience he writes within Bollywood [88:20] there are B-listers A-listers double [88:23] Alisters and way above them all is Shah [88:26] Ruk Luke Khan, richer and more famous [88:29] than Tom Cruz or Clint Eastwood and [88:31] adored by the entire country. Turns out [88:34] he and Lot had known each other since [88:36] childhood and there were few others [88:39] within Indian cricket who could have [88:41] convinced him to invest and participate [88:43] so actively in the league. The profile [88:46] that he provided as the tournament was [88:48] launching was [88:50] incalculable. So Lalit knows Shah Ruk [88:52] Khan biggest star in India. There's one [88:55] problem though. Shah Ruk is not a [88:57] cricket fan. He's into soccer. Really? [89:01] So Lai goes to him and is like, "I need [89:03] you to be part of the ownership group." [89:06] No way. Cuz retroactively, I watched an [89:08] interview with Letterman and he's making [89:10] jokes about he was never good enough. [89:13] Like he's fulfilling a childhood dream. [89:14] He was never good enough to play [89:15] cricket, so he may as well own a team. [89:17] That's totally retcon. All postfacto [89:19] retcon. Yes. Yes. Yes. Here's the real [89:22] story. This is amazing. We should say [89:24] all the quotes from LE and the direct [89:26] firsthand information from LE comes from [89:28] a great series of interviews that he did [89:29] on the Sports Entrepreneurs podcast that [89:30] we'll link to in the sources. So LE [89:33] obviously knows Shah Ruk. This is the [89:35] perfect, you know, get him in on the [89:36] ownership group. He's the brightest star [89:38] in India. Have him at the matches. Whoa, [89:40] I could tune into a soap opera at night. [89:42] Instead, I could go watch like the [89:44] biggest star in India there dancing on [89:46] the field with all this incredible going [89:48] on at the matches. But the problem is [89:50] he's not into cricket. So, Lot tells the [89:52] story. Shah Ruk said, "Lot, I don't know [89:55] how to do this. My passion is football. [89:57] I have no idea how to run a team or do [90:00] anything." I being Lot said, "Shhat Ruk, [90:03] let me handle it. I'll put a consortium [90:05] for you together. You just need to write [90:07] a check." He says, "You're going to take [90:09] my life savings." And it was his life [90:11] savings in those days. I said, "Just [90:13] write the check and we'll talk about it [90:15] if you end up winning the team at the [90:17] auction." This is the most incredible [90:19] gangster type stuff. So, here's what [90:21] Lala did. Because he's friends with Shah [90:23] Ruk, he knows that Nokia, the big [90:28] handset manufacturer at the time. [90:29] Remember, we're still slightly [90:31] pre-smartphone era here. We're in 2007. [90:34] Yep. And definitely pre-smartphone in [90:36] India. A way pre-martphone in India. [90:39] Nokia is desperate to get Shah Ruk as [90:42] their celebrity spokesperson in India. [90:45] And for whatever reason, Shah Ruk is not [90:48] engaging with them on. So Lot says, [90:50] "Shuk, just trust me. Do I have your [90:52] word that if I put a consortium together [90:54] for you, you're in?" He says, "Sure." [90:57] Lot turns around and he goes to Nokia [91:00] and he says, "I know you want Shah Rut." [91:02] He's not going to do it, but you can [91:05] become the jersey sponsor of his new [91:09] team that he's about to have in this new [91:12] cricket league that is going to be the [91:13] biggest cricket league the world has [91:15] ever seen. Wait, wait, David, I have an [91:16] alarm bell going off on my head. What do [91:18] you mean it's going to be his team? That [91:20] seems like something you can't promise [91:22] when there's an upcoming auction and you [91:24] don't know how the auction is going to [91:26] end. M would it be? Would it [91:29] be? Yeah. Well, if he were to have this [91:33] new team, he's going to be in the [91:35] stands. He's going to be on the field. [91:38] He's going to be wearing it. He's going [91:39] to be singing. He's going to be dancing. [91:41] He's going to be doing the music video [91:44] introduction to the team in the league. [91:47] TV cameras are gonna be all over him and [91:49] he's gonna be wearing the shirt with [91:51] Nokia right there in the front on the [91:54] chest. And you can have all of that for [91:57] the low low price of $5 million per year [92:00] in cash up front. Wait, is this to be [92:02] the jersey sponsor of one team? Yes. [92:04] Whoa. Jersey sponsor, one team, $5 [92:07] million in cash. One team that doesn't [92:09] exist that theoretically might be won at [92:13] the auction by Shah Ruk Khan. [92:15] Theoretically, it is crazy the amount of [92:17] things that need to come together here. [92:19] This is some major chicken of the egg [92:20] stuff that does need to come together [92:22] before a ball is ever bowled. The [92:25] sponsorships, the media rights, the [92:26] ownership group, an immense amount of [92:28] money being promised in contracts, [92:31] changing hands for a league that has [92:33] never existed. India, baby. [92:36] And Lit. And Lit. I mean, he's an [92:38] incredible entrepreneur. So Lit goes [92:41] back to Shah Ruk and he's like, "All [92:42] right, I got you your team. So, I'm [92:44] going to set the minimum reserve price [92:46] in the franchise auction at $50 million, [92:49] but it's going to be payable over 10 [92:51] years. And no matter what you bid and [92:54] what you win, the first year's payment [92:56] is going to be $5 million. So, if you [92:58] bid 50, it's $5 million a year for 10 [93:00] years. You bid a hundred, it's $10 [93:03] million over, you know, a year over 10 [93:04] years on average, but I'm only going to [93:06] charge you five in the first year. I [93:08] believe that's how it was set up. I [93:10] mean, on top of it, if you're trying to [93:12] get people over the line, just [93:14] generally, yeah, make it payable over 10 [93:16] years, right? The capital calls are the [93:17] way to do it. I mean, it's kind of an [93:19] incredible way to get someone to bid 50 [93:21] to $100 million for something that [93:22] doesn't exist yet and say, well, in the [93:24] first year, you're only out 5 million. [93:26] And then there's a sweetener, which [93:28] you're going to get to in the media [93:29] rights with the way that they tear that [93:30] down. But Lit is a genius at structuring [93:33] your own out-ofpocket money. I'm not [93:36] sure how much risk you're actually going [93:37] to be taking even though all of these [93:39] dollar signs are eyewateringly large. [93:42] Yes. Well, again, meteorites [93:44] importantly, we can't get to the [93:45] meteorites yet because like we said, [93:46] there's the problem of to sell the [93:48] meteorites, you got to bring a female [93:51] audience in and you got to prove that. [93:53] And you got to prove that, which means [93:54] you need Shah Ruk and you need [93:55] Bollywood. So now he goes back to him. [93:57] He's like, I got you your team. First [93:59] year payment is gonna be $5 million. [94:01] Guess what? Nokia is sponsoring your [94:02] team for $5 million. You are already in [94:04] the black. You have a profitable [94:06] enterprise day one. Wait, is this after [94:08] the auction? No, no, this is before the [94:10] auction. Got it. Okay. This is, you [94:13] know, I've got you your team in quotes [94:15] here. I see. Got it. So, Shriek's like, [94:18] "Oh, wow. Okay, great. I'm in. That is [94:21] an offer I can't refuse." Wow. A free [94:23] cricket team. Sure. So, we're now fast [94:26] forwarding slightly to when the auction [94:28] actually happens in January 2008. The [94:30] auction happened. Shah Ruk won the team [94:32] at 12:00. At 3:00 he had a signed [94:34] agreement with Nokia to pay the five [94:36] million for the front of the shirt for [94:37] that year. So he had a wash and was [94:39] laughing all the way. That wouldn't have [94:40] happened for anybody else. Amazing. [94:42] Okay, so now back to the fall here when [94:45] they're getting this all set up. Lit can [94:48] now go around to everybody and say Shah [94:50] Ruk is in. We got Bollywood and oh yeah, [94:54] Noki is in. And they're in for $5 [94:56] million for jersey sponsorship of a [94:58] single team. So now they've set the [94:59] price. This thing is for real. They have [95:02] set the market. Exactly. Okay. So, now [95:05] that Shah Ruk's in, all the rest of [95:07] Bollywood wants to come in because [95:08] wherever Shah Ruk goes, you know, he's [95:10] the leader of the pack, the whole rest [95:12] of the community wants to come along, [95:14] too. He's unbelievably charming. By the [95:16] way, this Letterman interview, he's like [95:18] butter. Unbelievably charming. I'm [95:21] trying to think of an analogy in like [95:23] Hollywood. There is no analogy. So, one [95:26] of the top AAA list actresses, an [95:29] actress named Piti Zinta, she ends up [95:32] becoming the principal owner to buy [95:34] another one of the teams. So, this is [95:37] even more amazing. Now, you've got one [95:39] of the top actresses who's coming in as [95:41] the principal owner of a team. So, now [95:43] you've got not just Shah Ruk who even [95:47] alone that would have been enough to [95:49] draw in the women in the general [95:50] entertainment audience and beat the soap [95:52] operas. Now you've got Triple A top [95:56] list, one of the best actresses in [95:58] Bollywood, who's also going to be a [96:00] principal owner of one of the teams, [96:02] who's also going to be at all the games, [96:04] also in the stands, also going to have [96:05] TV cameras all over her, and that it's [96:09] just going to bring the whole circus. [96:10] So, Lot says, "In one way, they are 90% [96:15] of the market, they being Bollywood. [96:17] Once I had their reporters and their [96:19] people in there and all their stars [96:21] starting to attend and everybody getting [96:23] their makeup artists and their people [96:24] and their endorsers and their brands [96:26] talking about them attending a match, it [96:28] changed the whole thing around. Them [96:30] being on the field sent a whole [96:32] different message to the crowds who [96:33] wanted to see these people who could [96:35] only otherwise see them on screen, but [96:37] now they can buy a ticket or they can [96:39] tune in on TV and they can come see the [96:41] stars there out even far away every [96:44] night of the week. And then the piesta [96:48] razi stance at least when designing this [96:51] product for a general TV audience and [96:54] competing with soap operas. Wildwood [96:57] meant the quote about competing with [96:58] them quite literally. So when IMG and LA [97:02] go out to bring the bidding to the TV [97:04] networks for this they say here's our [97:08] schedule and time slot. We are going to [97:10] have matches every night of the week [97:13] seven days a week. one match at a time [97:17] at 8:00 p.m. We are going to go directly [97:20] up against the soap operas, which also [97:23] run every night of the week at 8:00 p.m. [97:25] These going to be three-hour matches, [97:27] 8:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. And it's going [97:30] to be like Monday Night Football every [97:32] single night of the week, only one match [97:34] at a time for two months. And you're [97:36] going to have all the biggest Bollywood [97:38] stars there, all the triple A-listers, [97:40] who by the way will never act in soap [97:43] operas because they're only acting in [97:45] the big time movies, right? We're going [97:47] to have them in our soap opera. We've [97:49] got them coming captive in the stadium [97:53] with the cameras on them. And then also, [97:56] by the way, from a sports programming [97:58] perspective, this is also going to be [98:00] the best cricket in the world. So all [98:01] the men who are already watching the [98:03] international cricket, they're going to [98:04] come here, too. the whole family is [98:06] going to watch. And for anyone who's a [98:08] little skeptical of this, just think in [98:09] the US, how many people watched NFL [98:12] games in the last few years just hoping [98:14] to catch a glimpse of Taylor Swift when [98:15] the camera goes to her for the gosh, I [98:18] don't know, 30 total seconds per game [98:20] that it's on. I mean, the amount of [98:22] newsworthiness that came out of, oh, [98:25] here's what Taylor looked like when she [98:27] was in the stands making an expression. [98:29] Here's the jacket she wore. Imagine if [98:31] she's the owner of the team. Yes. [98:33] Imagine if Taylor owned the Chiefs. [98:35] That's what is going on here. There [98:38] really is no comp for this in sports [98:41] except for the single game of the Super [98:43] Bowl. I think the Super Bowl is like [98:45] this in the US where it's a family [98:48] event. Everybody watches. I mean, Jenny [98:52] watches. My wife, she has no interest in [98:54] football. She hates Sundays and Monday [98:56] nights during the season when I want to [98:58] watch football and like she could care [99:00] less. But the Super Bowl, even though [99:02] she has no interest in football, she [99:03] will tune in to watch that just because [99:05] it's an event. She wants to see the [99:06] commercials. She wants to see who's [99:07] there, etc. This is what IPL is every [99:10] single night of the week. The IPL is [99:12] like the Oscars or it's awards season, [99:14] but it's every night instead of just [99:16] four Sundays. Yep. Exactly. Okay. So, so [99:19] far you've got three pillars of [99:22] competitive balance that they've managed [99:24] to stabilize here, at least at the [99:26] start. Yep. You've got first the [99:28] stadiums and no debt, not owning [99:31] stadiums asset light business model. [99:34] Second, you've got a diverse ownership [99:36] group which is necessary both to ensure [99:39] that no one group has financial [99:41] resources outside the system that can [99:43] outspend any other, but more [99:45] importantly, you really need Bollywood [99:47] to be involved here to unlock the media [99:49] budgets. Yep. So then now three falling [99:52] into place here is the media budgets and [99:54] being able to get a huge central [99:56] broadcasting rights deal. Yep. Which [99:59] gets evenly distributed. Yep. Exactly. [100:02] So here we are now by January 2008. All [100:05] the pieces are in place to get that [100:07] deal. Led and IMG are ready to take it [100:10] out to the markets for bidding. Of [100:12] course, per usual, there's just one [100:14] problem, which is that Nimbus, remember, [100:17] which had spent $620 million to buy the [100:20] international cricket rights from BCCI, [100:22] they're like, "Wait a minute. We already [100:25] own this. We paid you $620 million over [100:29] four or five years or whatever it was [100:31] for the rights to all of BCCI cricket. [100:34] This is what we're paying you for. IPL [100:36] is a BCCI product. We should have this [100:38] already. Makes sense to me. I see the [100:40] argument." Uh, and of course, you know, [100:42] what do you think? L says like, nope, [100:44] IPL was not specifically laid out in the [100:46] contract, and if you would like to sue [100:48] me, you are welcome to go ahead and sue [100:50] me. Good luck here winning. Of course, [100:52] it wasn't specifically called out by [100:55] either party. And so, therefore, LE gets [100:58] to say, this is something different. And [101:01] I mean, look, Nimbus is already making [101:03] out great. They went from being like a [101:05] middling broadcaster that had no sports [101:07] rights to all of a sudden having all of [101:11] the sports rights and yes they paid a [101:12] lot of money for it but they're making a [101:14] lot of money for it here too which this [101:16] is always lit's argument of I make money [101:18] for everybody and this just is how [101:21] business in India gets done or at least [101:24] was how business in India gets done in [101:26] this time frame you know call it [101:27] 2008 sure from our US American and [101:31] western perspectives we can look at this [101:33] and be [101:34] Well, what was actually the letter of [101:36] the contract? And shouldn't there be a [101:37] process here? And does Nimbus have these [101:39] rights? And you just want to deal in [101:40] good faith. You just want to assume that [101:42] if someone knows that they're about to [101:45] launch a huge new cricket league that's [101:46] not included in your contract and you're [101:47] operating under the idea that it is [101:49] included in your contract, what's in the [101:51] contract doesn't matter as much as what [101:52] you both feel like you're agreeing to. [101:55] And it's a shame that if what you're [101:57] relying on is, well, the letter of the [101:59] contract says this, you know. Yep. [102:01] Exactly. Okay. So Nimbus does not have [102:04] the broadcasting rights. How do they get [102:05] sold? So Nimbus, they're out. Star is [102:08] still out because [102:12] uh another amazing lick quote. He just [102:14] doesn't let bygon speak bygones. He's [102:17] talking about how he sets up the [102:18] broadcasting rights auction. Rupert [102:20] Murdoch I had blacklisted. I would never [102:22] allow him in due to what had already [102:23] happened. So I blacklisted Rupert [102:28] Murdoch. Amazing. I mean this was 10 [102:30] years ago that that happened. ESPN and [102:33] Disney corporate says that they are [102:36] interested in bidding on these rights [102:38] separately from Star, which they're [102:40] already a JV in, but they think this is [102:42] so interesting. They're interested in [102:43] bidding. Ultimately though, they can't [102:46] get comfortable enough to put an actual [102:47] bid in. They say, "We will broadcast it [102:50] over the top as Disney, soon to be [102:53] Disney Plus, in the coming years, but [102:55] we're only going to do it on a revshare [102:56] basis. We won't give you cash up front. [102:58] We'll just share advertising revenue [102:59] with you." And obviously that's not what [103:02] Lit wants because he needs the cash to [103:04] have the central sponsorship guarantees, [103:06] central media guarantees out to the [103:08] franchises, right? Because if no one's [103:11] going to bid on one of these teams for [103:13] 80 million bucks unless somebody is [103:16] guaranteeing you there is media revenue [103:17] there. Exactly. So what does he do? He [103:19] just runs the same playbook he's always [103:22] been running, which he goes to another [103:23] broadcaster who does not have a sports [103:25] channel or sports presence. This time [103:27] it's Sony which is the number two [103:29] broadcaster in India at this point. But [103:31] like Nimbus before and Disney before [103:34] that did not have a sports channel and [103:37] he says I will make you a sports [103:39] channel. And by the way this isn't just [103:40] sports. This is sports and Bollywood and [103:42] the greatest entertainment product that [103:43] India in the world has ever seen. Yep. [103:45] And the minimum bid for this is 600 [103:48] million for 10 years. But I am expecting [103:52] a billion over 10 years which would put [103:55] it roughly on parody with the India [103:57] international cricket rights that Nimbus [103:59] had bought the year before. So Sony's [104:02] like okay we're interested. We see the [104:05] value here but 10 years is a big [104:07] commitment for what is essentially a [104:09] startup and we don't know that it's [104:11] going to work. I mean again not a ball [104:13] has been bold. Exactly. Not a ball has [104:15] been bold. No teams have been [104:16] established yet. There are no official [104:18] ownership groups that have bid on [104:19] franchises. Yes, this is a very [104:21] compelling business plan, limeg, but no [104:24] domestic cricket league has ever proven [104:27] valuable anywhere in the world. [104:30] You know, there are domestic leagues in [104:31] Australia, in England, in New Zealand, [104:34] etc., but they're peanuts. You know, [104:36] they're the minor leagues. They're fine. [104:38] They're not going to justify a hundred [104:41] million dollar a year, billion dollar [104:42] over 10year meteorite stealing. But they [104:46] say, "We are interested. So what we [104:47] would like to do is we would like to buy [104:48] just the first year at the same PR rata [104:51] price as the $600 million minimum bid [104:54] for 10. We'll pay you $60 million for [104:58] year one." So you know, it's something. [105:01] It's money on the table, but it's not [105:05] really going to send the signal of [105:07] strength to franchise biders that Lot [105:11] wants for the auction coming up. He [105:13] really wants the 10-year deal to project [105:15] stability and cash flow certainty. That [105:17] also, by the way, is going to match up [105:19] the 10-year payable period of the [105:21] franchise fees. That's why he wants 10 [105:22] years. So, he and I img say to Sony [105:26] like, "Okay, we hear you. Hang on." They [105:29] turn around and they go to a sports [105:31] rights group based out of Singapore [105:33] called World Sport Group. And it's [105:37] basically just like the Nokia and Shah [105:39] Ruk Khan deal. They say to WSG, World [105:43] Sports Group, "Here's what we need you [105:45] to do. We need you to bid and buy the [105:50] 10-year meteorites deal at the billion [105:52] dollar price that we want, but we'll [105:56] only charge you $60 million in year [105:57] one." So then they would owe the [105:59] remaining 940 over 9 years. Exactly. And [106:03] so you're going to put up $60 million in [106:05] year 1. And this is for the global [106:07] rights by the way to IPL broadcasting. [106:11] And what you're going to do is you are [106:13] going to turn around and immediately [106:15] sublic the Indian domestic broadcast [106:18] rights back to Sony who is good for that [106:21] $60 million on the table, cash on the [106:23] table. And then you as your, you know, [106:25] vig for facilitating this, you will have [106:29] the rest of the world international [106:31] broadcast rights that you can then go [106:32] sell and profit from at your pleasure. [106:35] Oh my god. But I mean, it's kind of [106:37] crazy. Sure, there's the rest of the [106:39] world, but without that, what you're [106:41] basically saying is sign this contract, [106:44] you'll be cash neutral in year 1, and [106:47] then you will have a massive liability [106:48] in years 2 through 10. Good luck. [106:51] Hopefully, you can make money on it. [106:53] Yes. Well, so here's the LA quote. I [106:57] knew that once we had the TV deal [107:00] signed, all the rest would follow. [107:02] Remember, he's already set all this up [107:03] with Shah Ruk Khan, you know, he's got [107:05] the players, he's got Shah Ruk Khan, [107:07] he's got the stadiums, he knows this is [107:09] going to work if they can secure the bag [107:12] on the TV money. So, he says, although [107:14] the deal was for 1 billion, I told the [107:17] broadcasters I only needed 60 million in [107:19] year 1. Let's get the first year done. [107:21] We'll worry about the rest later. I [107:24] promise if we don't achieve what we set [107:27] out to achieve, I won't carry on the IPL [107:30] after year 1. So he's basically saying [107:32] you have a gentleman's agreement from me [107:34] that if this doesn't turn out like we [107:36] think it does I will pull the plug on [107:38] the whole thing and you won't be on the [107:39] hook WSG for 940 million in years 2 [107:43] through 10. So if you believe that then [107:45] it really is a free option for the [107:48] international rights for year 1. [107:50] Exactly. Like I said it's the same [107:52] shahuk deal. It's like, hey, I am [107:54] finding you the money to cover your [107:56] costs in year one and you are in the [108:00] black. You can make whatever profits you [108:03] want from the rest of it. Yep. [108:04] Fascinating. Which again, legality or to [108:08] the western view, ethics aside, actually [108:12] is brilliant. What an amazing way to [108:14] start something from nothing. Yep. [108:17] Transactions create value. Let's throw [108:20] that abstract idea out. When I pay you [108:22] for something and you deliver me that [108:24] good or service, value is created in the [108:26] world by that transaction happening. [108:28] Otherwise, it wouldn't happen. [108:29] Otherwise, I'd say, I'd rather keep my [108:31] money. You'd rather keep your good or [108:32] service. And so, if you can make [108:35] transactions happen where it actually is [108:38] in the interest of both parties to do it [108:39] where they otherwise wouldn't have [108:41] happened, that is literally a value [108:42] creative event. Totally. And what Led is [108:47] architecting here is not just saying [108:50] transactions. He's saying no risk [108:52] transactions. I'm going to create no [108:53] risk transactions where you have no [108:55] downside and all upside. And he actually [108:59] genuinely is able to align all the [109:00] players here such that like nobody is [109:03] really holding the bag. But there's an [109:05] if. It's there is no risk to this [109:07] transaction if you trust that I'm going [109:09] to pull the plug in year two if it's not [109:11] working and you don't owe me $110 [109:14] million a year for something that you're [109:15] not getting value out of. Yeah. Exactly. [109:18] You need to have some level of trust [109:20] here. Actually, a pretty high degree of [109:22] trust. That's essentially the trade. In [109:24] exchange for telling the world that I [109:27] trust you, I am getting a free option to [109:29] sell the international rights in year [109:31] one. Yep. I am valuing your [109:34] trustworthiness. Yep. Well, you could [109:37] argue if you're WSG whether you should [109:40] have or should not have valued Lit's [109:43] trustworthiness because what he offers [109:46] does end up coming to pass. It's just [109:47] not in the uh spirit in which he offered [109:50] it. All right, so how's it go? Okay, so [109:52] they announced the billion dollar deal [109:54] with WSG and Sony. This is like a [109:56] earthquake that hits the cricket world. [109:59] No domestic league had ever remotely [110:01] been valued from on a meteorites basis [110:04] like this before. Not to mention the [110:06] league doesn't exist yet. There no [110:07] franchise owners, you know, etc. It's [110:09] just a business plan. Then on the back [110:11] of that momentum, 10 days later at the [110:13] end of January, they launch the [110:16] franchise auction. And like we said, the [110:18] minimum reserve bid for each of the [110:19] eight franchises is $50 million for the [110:23] ownership groups. But the TV money is [110:26] now in place. This is why it was so [110:27] important. Yep. So how much of the TV [110:30] money are they entitled to? That will [110:32] help me evaluate whether I should bid 50 [110:34] plus billion dollars for a franchise. So [110:38] here is the perspectus that gets [110:40] distributed out to potential biders on [110:42] these franchises of the central media [110:47] rights revenue the broadcast deals like [110:50] they've just done with WG and Sony and [110:52] also the central sponsorship deals 50% [110:56] one half of that will get distributed [110:58] out to the collective eight franchises [111:02] to be distributed equally but here's the [111:05] kicker [111:06] Lot is the master of manipulating time [111:08] in his deals. That is what it will be at [111:11] steady state. In the first year, it will [111:14] be 80% 80. So eight out of every $10 [111:18] that are coming in centrally to IPL will [111:20] get distributed out just happens to be [111:23] eight teams. So each of the eight teams [111:25] is going to get 10% of the total central [111:28] money that's coming into the league. And [111:30] then it's going to be a sliding scale [111:31] over the next 10 years that's going to [111:33] take it down to 50%. And so how does the [111:37] math work out now? Okay, you already [111:39] know what the TV rights deal is. It's [111:41] $60 million in the first year hard cash [111:44] that's coming in. And then there's [111:46] upside from sponsorships that LA might [111:48] go sell, but he needed to get the [111:49] franchises in place before he sells the [111:51] sponsorships. So that's about 5 million [111:53] in cash to each team in revenue from [111:56] that deal in year one. Bingo. TV rights [111:59] alone, $5 million in cash coming in each [112:03] year. And remember what he told Shah Ruk [112:05] Khan. What's the deal on the franchise [112:08] fees paid over 10 years, but I'm going [112:11] to let you pay the effective minimum [112:14] price in year one, only $5 million in [112:16] year one. Magically, it works out. You [112:19] get a free franchise for the first year. [112:21] Amazing. Amazing. No matter what you [112:23] bid, you're probably going to be break [112:25] even or close to it, even after paying [112:28] players, which we'll get to very early [112:30] in the life of your franchise. And guess [112:32] what? Magically, once all the central [112:34] sponsorships are sold, it ends up being [112:37] $10 million per team distributed from [112:40] the central revenue pool. Exactly the [112:43] straw man that you are setting up, Ben. [112:45] You're giving me 10 and you're saying no [112:47] matter how much I pay for this team in [112:48] year one, I only owe you five. That [112:50] sounds like a great trade. And it's an [112:52] asset like business model. You don't [112:53] have to invest any balance sheet [112:54] dollars. There's no stadiums, no hard [112:57] assets, etc. Well, if you are a smart [113:00] sports investor, the first most [113:03] important question you would ask next is [113:05] what's the salary cap? What's the salary [113:07] cap? What about the players? Which [113:09] here's a funny thing. In most leagues, [113:12] what's the salary cap is the same as [113:13] asking on my P&L, what is the expense [113:16] line for players? Interestingly, in the [113:18] IPL, they don't pay the full salary cap. [113:22] Plenty of teams are running around there [113:24] with 75 80 90% of salary cap and having [113:28] a competitive team. It's actually a [113:30] different question in the IPL of asking [113:33] what's the cap versus actually what's my [113:35] team expense going to be? Yes. And what [113:38] makes the IPL unique relative to every [113:42] other sports league in the world, what [113:45] they uniquely innovate on this is the [113:47] auction system. Players in the IPL are [113:52] auctioned off just like a Sabbese [113:54] auction, like a piece of fine art or uh [113:57] as the media say when covering it, like [114:00] cattle and sheep. It's like the draft [114:02] but with money. It is the draft with [114:05] money and it is absolutely freaking [114:09] brilliant. But before we tell the story [114:12] of the IPL auction, yes, now is a great [114:14] time to thank a friend of the show, [114:17] Fundrise. The Fundrise team is awesome [114:20] and they are big acquired listeners just [114:22] like all of you. They've been evolving [114:24] since we first started working together [114:26] three years ago. At the time, Fundrise [114:28] was mostly known as the US's largest [114:30] real estate investment platform for [114:32] retail investors. However, they were [114:34] watching technology markets get larger [114:36] than ever thanks to Moore's law and [114:38] technology taking over every industry [114:40] and feeling like it really was a shame [114:42] that all these tech companies are [114:43] staying private longer and that meant [114:45] that retail investors couldn't get [114:46] access. So, in 2022, they launched their [114:49] move to bring their democratized model [114:51] into venture investing, which was a [114:53] pretty contrarian idea. Totally. This [114:55] had been tried in the past but never [114:57] really worked. Fast forward to today. [114:59] Fundrise has invested in great companies [115:01] like Data Bricks, Canva, Anderil, Ramp, [115:04] fellow friends of the show Vanta and [115:06] Anthropic, and also Service Titan, which [115:08] just went public in December. It really [115:10] is awesome what Fundrise has done. [115:12] They've taken a retail platform that any [115:14] American can invest in and gotten preipo [115:16] access to some of the best private [115:17] companies in the world. They've enabled [115:19] access to all the value creation that's [115:21] been locked away in private companies. [115:23] Yep. When the Service Titan IPO [115:25] happened, thanks to Fundrise, tens of [115:27] thousands of regular investors got to [115:29] celebrate alongside VCs, LPs, and [115:31] employees. And timing really is [115:32] everything. Fundrise is doing this at a [115:34] moment where, thanks to AI, there's more [115:37] value being created than ever in the [115:38] technology sector of the economy. You [115:40] can go to check out the full portfolio [115:43] that Fundrise is building at [115:45] fundrise.com/venture. And if you're a [115:47] Growth Stage founder looking for a great [115:49] series C or later investor, just get in [115:52] touch and tell them that Ben and David [115:54] sent you. This is a paid endorsement for [115:56] Fundrise and all investments can lead to [115:58] a loss. Okay, so David, I said the [116:00] player auction is like the draft with [116:02] money, but that's not really giving it [116:04] enough credit. The NFL draft did manage [116:07] to turn itself into a huge ridiculous [116:10] viewer spectacle. big thing at Radio [116:12] City Music Hall in New York and TV [116:14] coverage. But the player auction is both [116:18] a live spectacle and a key piece to the [116:20] way that they balance the whole league. [116:23] And the rules for the annual player [116:24] auction were nailed down even before the [116:26] initial bidding for the teams happened, [116:28] which is important to understand. You [116:30] need to know before you bid on a team as [116:33] an owner how this whole auction process [116:35] is going to work. It is tied as top [116:39] priority for the most important thing to [116:41] know along with how the central revenue [116:43] is getting distributed because by far [116:46] the biggest expense for any premier [116:48] sports team attracting the best players [116:50] in the world is player salaries. Put [116:52] aside capital expenditures and potential [116:54] debt payments for stadiums. That's not [116:56] part of this league. And that makes [116:58] sense, by the way, that player salaries [117:00] should be your biggest expense because [117:02] that is the most important raw [117:05] ingredient to your business. Yep. So, [117:08] different leagues have different ways of [117:10] dealing with this in different sports. [117:12] And we talked about this a little [117:13] already, but I would say until the IPL [117:16] auction innovation, what was generally [117:19] regarded as the most effective way to [117:21] deal with this is a hard salary cap. And [117:24] that's what the NFL has. Every year you [117:27] have a dollar amount that is the same [117:29] for every team. You cannot spend more [117:31] than that dollar amount. It is simply [117:34] not allowed. And how high that dollar [117:36] amount is is the result of collective [117:38] bargaining between the players union and [117:40] the ownership group. Yep. Which is a [117:43] very sane way to do it. Just taking the [117:46] three big US sports leagues. NFL clearly [117:49] the gold standard has the best way to [117:51] manage competitive parody which is the [117:54] hard salary cap. Next is the MBA. [117:56] They're somewhere in the middle. The MBA [117:58] has a soft salary cap, which means yes, [118:01] there's a salary cap, but under some [118:04] exceptions, you can go beyond it, and [118:06] then there's an associated luxury tax [118:08] with going beyond it. This is a big [118:12] problem. Not as big a problem as [118:13] baseball, which I'll tell you about in a [118:15] sec, but the reason this is a problem is [118:17] it all of a sudden introduces the amount [118:19] of wealth that your ownership group has [118:22] outside of the business of running the [118:24] team. outside of the league now starts [118:27] to play a factor in how much you can [118:28] spend for players and starts to affect [118:31] the competitive balance of the league. [118:33] Or maybe to put it in a more generic [118:35] way, the amount of access to capital the [118:38] ownership group has cuz whether or not [118:40] they're wealthy, if they're in a market [118:41] where you're in a team that can produce [118:44] a lot of local revenue, well then you [118:46] can afford to pay for more expensive [118:47] players out of your local revenue and [118:50] pay the associated luxury tax fees. Now, [118:52] in theory, the luxury tax should address [118:54] this because you're then now [118:56] redistributing some of that extra money [118:58] that you're spending on salary and an [119:00] equal amount to other teams. But in [119:02] practice, it doesn't really work out [119:03] this way. So, if you look at competitive [119:05] dynamics in the NBA versus the NFL, you [119:08] get dynasties in the NBA like the [119:11] Warriors or the Lakers or the Celtics or [119:13] the Spurs a few years ago. Yep. Cavs [119:15] Heat. Yep. The Heat. The Spurs are the [119:17] anomaly because they're not in a major [119:19] market, but all those other cities, all [119:22] those other teams I was talking about, [119:23] San Francisco, Bay Area, Los Angeles, [119:27] Miami, these are big markets, right? The [119:29] luxury tax sounds great in practice, but [119:31] the uh existence proof that you are now [119:33] naming shows the flaw. So, that's the [119:36] NBA somewhere in the middle. Then you've [119:39] got Major League Baseball. Major League [119:41] Baseball has no salary cap at all. They [119:44] do have what is called a quote unquote [119:46] competitive balance tax which sort of [119:50] operates like a soft salary cap like the [119:52] NBA but in practice it's a total sham [119:56] because in the NBA there are at least [119:57] strict rules about when and how and how [120:00] much you can exceed the salary cap by. [120:03] In baseball, it's just like, hey, [120:05] there's some tiers, and if you go into [120:07] the higher tiers of excess over the [120:09] competitive balance thresholds, you pay [120:11] more. But there's no cap on how much you [120:13] can pay. You can pay an infinite amount [120:14] and then just pay penalties to an [120:15] infinite amount. So, last year in 2024, [120:20] nine teams in Major League Baseball [120:22] exceeded the competitive balance tax [120:25] threshold. By far, the worst offender [120:28] were the Los Angeles Dodgers, who [120:30] exceeded it by $100 million. [120:34] which is just ridiculous. And then of [120:36] course they won the World Series. Like [120:38] duh. Gee gee, how did that happen? And [120:41] why did the Dodgers feel comfortable [120:43] exceeding it by $100 million and paying [120:45] such a huge luxury tax? Oh, guess what? [120:48] They're in Los Angeles, the biggest [120:50] media market in the US. And oh, guess [120:52] what? Major League Baseball does not [120:54] have central media rights. The Dodgers [120:57] have their own TV deal in Los Angeles, [120:59] which is by far the most valuable in the [121:02] sport. So, they've got the funding, as [121:04] you said, the access to capital to do [121:06] this. And of course, they're going to [121:07] win the World Series. It's a big [121:09] problem. Yep. Why would anyone tune in [121:11] to watch that? Totally. I mean, sure. [121:14] Then you've got also the separate [121:16] problem with baseball of 162 games. [121:18] Like, who cares about a game on a [121:20] Wednesday night in the middle of the [121:21] summer? Totally. I tuned in to watch the [121:23] ALCS and the World Series last year. who [121:25] was great. I will say the ALCS, I'm from [121:28] Cleveland, the Guardians total payroll [121:30] was $106 million playing the Yankees who [121:33] is $39 million. I mean, it's amazing the [121:37] Guardians got close, right? I mean, [121:39] that's just such a stark example. You've [121:41] got one team that has 3x the annual [121:45] salary payroll of the other team. Like, [121:46] there's just no way. Yep. Spring [121:48] training is more compelling than the [121:50] regular season. At least spring training [121:51] is fun. [121:53] And I say this as somebody who deeply [121:55] loves baseball, but okay. So that's at [121:58] least state-of-the-art in the big North [122:00] American sports leagues. As I said [122:03] before the IPL comes along, NFL is the [122:06] gold standard. I mean, they are the true [122:08] any given Sunday league, not true in any [122:11] of the other North American leagues. [122:13] European soccer is even worse. It's a [122:15] very, very small number of teams in La [122:17] Liga or Bundes League or English Premier [122:19] League that are winning. Not to mention, [122:21] they have relegation. If you perform [122:23] badly, rather than adjusting the league [122:25] balance, they just kick your team out of [122:26] the league, which is great as an owner. [122:28] Wow, my media rights and my everything [122:30] is so valuable that uh oh, actually, it [122:33] all just went away because I'm out of [122:34] the league entirely, right? That is the [122:36] ultimate disincentive to investment and [122:39] ownership in a league. You definitely [122:41] don't want that. Yes. Okay, so Lit comes [122:45] up with this incredibly brilliant idea [122:47] and says, "You know what? Instead of [122:49] having a salary cap, I've got something [122:51] that I think might work even better. All [122:54] these auctions that I keep running for [122:56] all these media rights and sponsorships [122:57] and everything, they work really, [122:59] really, really well because they [123:01] collapse everything down to a super [123:03] clear one-time in the- moment [123:06] transaction and I can set the guard [123:08] rails for minimum maximum. And lit this [123:11] man is so good at using the business [123:14] laws of physics out there in the world [123:15] to figure out what things are actually [123:17] worth. He just makes sure every time [123:19] somebody pays what it's worth, there's [123:21] never any money left on the table on any [123:23] side. It is very clearly does price [123:26] discovery and makes the transaction [123:27] happen for the exact right amount of [123:29] money. I'm trying to remember, there's [123:31] some episode we did recently where we [123:33] referred to uh either the company or the [123:35] founder as uh value maximization [123:38] pioneer. Oh, value capture pioneer. [123:40] Value capture pioneer. Yeah. Lot Modi is [123:43] a value maximization pioneer. Yes. It [123:46] was Qualcomm, by the way. Ah, Qualcomm. [123:49] So, here's Lit's quote on how the [123:52] auction comes about. I got the idea of [123:54] the player auction because our family [123:56] company had a partnership with Sabe's [123:58] auction house in India where you offer [124:00] the item to the highest bidder. What's [124:02] wrong with that? Great transparency. I [124:05] also knew it would be the talk of the [124:07] town. Extremely controversial. That was [124:09] a central part of my strategy. And then [124:13] he says in a different quote, "Our [124:14] number one pillar, I would call it the [124:17] pillar of the IPL was that we needed to [124:19] have a department called controversy." [124:22] And controversy allows us to get front [124:24] page news. If you're controversial, good [124:26] or bad, doesn't matter. As long as [124:28] people talk about us, they hate us, they [124:30] like us, great, no problem. They want to [124:32] talk about us. Let them talk about us, [124:33] and we don't clarify anything. I love [124:36] it. Amazing. Okay, so back to the [124:38] auction. Of course, this is going to be [124:39] controversial. Like I said earlier, you [124:41] know, the media is writing about this [124:42] like the world's best cricketers [124:44] auctioned off like cattle and sheep. But [124:47] this ends up being the perfect economic [124:50] system for all the parties involved [124:52] because it gets around a key problem [124:54] with salary caps, even hard salary caps [124:57] with hard limits. They're always [124:59] susceptible to dealings outside of the [125:02] structure. So, the NFL is really good [125:05] about policing this, but that's not to [125:07] say that this doesn't happen either [125:09] explicitly or implicitly. Let's say [125:12] you're a player. The NFL, by the way, [125:15] has $255 million of salary cap available [125:19] per team. So, let's use this example. [125:22] You're up to 245. You have two players [125:25] left and you want to sign them both for [125:26] $8 million. What do you do? You don't [125:28] have room in the cap. You only have 10 [125:30] million. You don't have 16 million [125:31] available. Right now, you're setting up [125:34] something that in practice, I think the [125:36] cap probably would do its job and [125:38] there's enough policing to ensure that [125:40] the low trust environment thing you [125:42] would do would say, "Oh, great. Sign [125:44] both players for half." And then go to [125:46] them on the side and say like, "Oh, hey, [125:47] by the way, these other companies that I [125:48] control, they're going to do a [125:49] sponsorship deal with you. Like, you're [125:51] going to become a celebrity endorser for [125:52] them, and that's going to be another $3 [125:54] million contract that you're going to [125:55] get on the side." or look, you get to be [125:57] an owner in a team at a low basis and [125:59] immediately you gained $3 million of on [126:02] paper wealth or something. Point being, [126:04] you can't police what happens outside of [126:07] the sort of artificial construct of like [126:09] a direct salary contract negotiation. Y [126:12] and the way I think this plays out in [126:14] practice in the NFL is let's say you're [126:17] a player mid to late career. Travis [126:20] Kelsey is a great example here. Travis [126:23] Kelce probably at some point in recent [126:27] years, I don't remember when he was up [126:29] for free agency, but could have gone [126:31] somewhere else and arguably could have [126:33] signed for more money than the Chiefs [126:35] were willing to pay him. However, he has [126:38] other business interests, especially now [126:40] that he's got his podcast, you know, [126:41] etc. Does he really want to be seen as [126:44] the heel who's turning his back on the [126:46] Chiefs? That was a good pro wrestling [126:48] reference there. The heel. Exactly. [126:50] Yeah. Right, right, right. Hey, this is [126:52] all a soap opera. It's all entertainment [126:53] at the end of the day. Okay. Point [126:56] being, there's all sorts of [126:56] considerations about why a player might [126:58] be willing to accept more or less money [127:00] for a given team to play in that city or [127:02] not to have his story line affected in a [127:05] certain way, etc. Auctions eliminate all [127:10] of that. So, the point you're making [127:11] here is if you have only $10 million of [127:15] cap left, but you need$66 million, you [127:17] might be able to use some emotional [127:20] tactics or non-monetary tactics to get [127:23] $16 million of value out of just $10 [127:26] million of cap depending on the [127:28] relationship that you have with each [127:30] player and what their unique situation [127:31] is. Exactly. Then you get into all sorts [127:34] of gaming of you're signing multi-year [127:36] deals, right? And so you can set the [127:38] number of years of that deal that's [127:40] negotiated and you can set the dollar [127:42] amount in each year and the cap impact [127:43] in each year. This happens all the time, [127:45] right? You trade money from one year to [127:47] another in order to free up cap space. [127:49] Yep. Oh, I've got the perfect example. [127:52] Quarterback deals, the biggest deals in [127:53] the NFL. So obviously they're going to [127:56] want to make a lot of money and that's [127:57] going to have the biggest impact on your [127:59] cap because they're by far the highest [128:01] paid player on your team. At the same [128:03] time, they also want to win a Super [128:04] Bowl. And so a highly effective argument [128:07] for a quarterback to take less money up [128:09] front than they might otherwise is to [128:11] say like, "Hey, we've got a window right [128:13] now. We've got some star wide receivers. [128:15] We've got a star running back. We've got [128:16] some star defensive players. We'll give [128:19] you a big contract and we'll guarantee [128:21] your money out in the outy years, but if [128:22] you take less money in these early years [128:25] to allow us to keep to retain or go get [128:28] some key weapons for you in the [128:30] parliament of the NFL, you know, some [128:32] receivers for you. be a team player [128:35] here, right? Yeah, this stuff happens [128:37] all the time. So, the great beauty of [128:39] the auction that Lit sets up is that he [128:43] sets both a maximum spend, a purse for [128:47] every team coming into the auction and a [128:50] minimum spend. And that minimum is like [128:52] 75% of cap, right? 75% of the maximum. [128:56] And he sets the maximum at a level that [129:00] keeps every team in the black. So he [129:02] knows now what the central TV right and [129:04] sponsorship dollars are that are coming [129:05] in. He knows what the franchise fees [129:08] that all the owners are going to be [129:09] paying are. So he can basically [129:11] mastermind all of their P&Ls and he sets [129:14] the maximum that you can spend in the [129:17] auction such that every team is still [129:19] going to be profitable. And then he also [129:20] sets the minimum spend so that one team [129:22] doesn't say like oh hey I want to be [129:23] super profitable and I'm only going to [129:25] buy scrubs at the auction and have a [129:27] really low salary base. Now, you might [129:29] think, wait a minute, an auction that [129:31] seems like it's going to be way more [129:32] susceptible to the stuff you were just [129:34] talking about, David, with the salary [129:35] cap and all the deals and incentives [129:37] that are happening outside. No, it [129:39] avoids all that because it collapses [129:40] everything down to a single point in [129:42] time. Everybody in the same room with [129:44] the same finite resources. It turns it [129:46] into a monopoly game. It doesn't matter [129:48] what happens outside the room. Sure, the [129:50] owners could say, "Oh, my star player, [129:52] you come play for me, I'm going to give [129:54] you an endorsement deal worth millions [129:55] of dollars." Sure, no problem. That [129:58] doesn't get you any more resources to [130:00] spend at the auction. Well, and even if [130:02] you and the player collude on a lower [130:05] price to save cap space, it doesn't mean [130:08] that the bidder at the table next to you [130:10] isn't just going to bid a higher amount [130:11] for that player. Everyone ends up going [130:13] for their actual market value. You can [130:15] collude all you want and it will never [130:17] work because everyone goes for their [130:19] market value because an auction is a [130:20] point of time event that maximizes [130:23] market value for each asset, right? And [130:25] the order that players come up, they [130:27] come up in lots and then the order [130:29] within those lots is randomized. And it [130:32] is all architected in a way such that [130:34] the only way for a team to gain an [130:37] advantage over any other team in the [130:40] auction is to have superior market [130:42] intelligence, which has come to mean [130:45] have superior analytics and superior [130:48] player evaluation. So in the first year [130:51] of the league, the Rajasthan Royals who [130:53] have the lowest salary, they actually [130:55] don't hit the minimum salary and they [130:58] get fined by lit. So the maximum salary [131:00] that he sets for year one is $5 million [131:02] or maximum purse for the auction. And [131:04] then that means the minimum purse is, I [131:06] think, 3.3 million. The Royals don't [131:09] even hit 3.3 million. They're so cheap. [131:12] They were the cheapest franchise that [131:13] was sold at the franchise auction, too. [131:15] So they get penalized by the league. [131:17] they end up winning the championship [131:19] because they come into the auction with [131:22] better analytics than everyone else. [131:24] Amazing. I do think the the one thing [131:26] that's really important in this though [131:28] to your point of collapsing it all into [131:30] one single point in time, all contracts [131:32] are three-year contracts, which really [131:35] reduces the gaming. Well, I think that [131:37] there's two important impacts of that. [131:40] One, most important for competitive [131:41] dynamics is you can do all the gaming, [131:45] all the colluding, all the side deals [131:47] that you want. That won't get you any [131:49] more resources in the auction. And it [131:52] also won't get you any superior [131:56] information unless you were to do [131:58] something really crazy like collude with [132:00] a player to say, "I'm not going to bid [132:02] on you. You will go to another team and [132:04] then I will pay you money to play worse [132:05] for that team." like to throw matches [132:08] which hey by the way kind of might start [132:10] to happen in the next couple of years [132:12] here as we'll see story [132:15] but you would have to get really dark to [132:17] impact the competitive spirit of the [132:20] game here and then the other important [132:22] impact that I think you were saying [132:23] there Ben is because all this collapses [132:26] to a single point in time it means the [132:28] IPL and LA can say all player contracts [132:31] are standard contracts there's no terms [132:34] there's no negotiations [132:36] Every player will be at 3 years and both [132:38] sides have an option to pull out after [132:40] each year. So the team could say after [132:42] year two, you're not playing good [132:43] anymore. I'm cutting you. I'm going to [132:45] send you back to the auction pool. [132:46] Likewise, player could pull out. And [132:48] that also means no agents. So at this [132:51] point in time, I think most IPL players [132:54] probably do have agents, but agents just [132:55] can't impact things that much because [132:57] it's a standard contract. Value [132:59] discovery happens in the auction process [133:02] and then all the contracts are standard. [133:03] It's like what YC tried to do with the [133:05] safe. It's just look, you fill in the [133:06] number. It's the cap. Whatever the cap [133:08] is is the cap. Exactly. Really reduces [133:11] the legal fees. Yep. So now you might [133:13] say, well wait, why would players agree [133:16] to this? This seems really team and [133:18] owner friendly and not player friendly. [133:21] And indeed, if you look at the [133:23] percentage of revenue that IPL players [133:26] make in the IPL versus in the NFL, [133:29] players are essentially getting 50% of [133:31] the league's revenues. In fact, almost [133:33] every sports league now, it's on average [133:35] players get 50%. Except on English [133:38] Premier League Soccer, it's something [133:40] like players get 60 plus%. But like we [133:43] were saying, the economics of those [133:44] teams are upside down. And it's actually [133:45] a bad thing for the league. Yeah. In [133:48] IPL, even today, I think players are [133:51] getting 12 to 15% of the revenue of the [133:53] league. It's extremely low. Yeah. But [133:56] they're thrilled. This is great for the [133:58] players for two reasons. There's a [134:00] carrot and a stick here. The carrot is [134:04] before the IPL they weren't making any [134:06] money. There was nothing. Yeah. This is [134:07] constantly LAT's argument. Yeah, I know [134:10] my side is making out great, but guys [134:12] were all making out much better than [134:13] before. Yep. Before this, all the [134:16] players were paid by their international [134:18] boards, which meant one, you had to make [134:20] it onto the international team in your [134:23] country. There was just one team. So, [134:25] there were such a small number of [134:26] players that could even get paid at all [134:28] to play cricket. Now all of a sudden you [134:31] have eight teams within India. So it [134:33] increases the pool of players. Two, [134:35] there's just way more money to go [134:36] around. Yeah, you're only getting 12 15% [134:38] of the revenue, but it's a really big [134:40] pie. And then the third reason is the [134:43] actual IPL season is very short and you [134:45] are not locked up for the rest of the [134:47] year. So it's like, oh yeah, you can [134:50] come play in the IPL for the two-month [134:52] window that is their season. You can [134:54] then go play for your international team [134:56] or other leagues around the world. Do [134:57] whatever you want the rest of the year. [134:59] earn as much money as you want [135:00] elsewhere. Yeah, it's funny. My issue [135:02] with the salary cap disparity, it wasn't [135:06] that big a deal in 0809 2010. If the cap [135:09] was $5 million and each team is only [135:11] making 10 million total from the central [135:13] pool, it's actually a fine agreement. [135:16] It's the fact that the media rights and [135:18] the sponsorship rights have since blown [135:19] up like crazy, but the salary cap is [135:23] pretty moderated in how much it's [135:25] allowed to grow. And interestingly, it's [135:27] not an IPL thing. It's a BCCI thing. The [135:30] BCCI determines those contracts with the [135:34] players. Of course, they do. So, that's [135:36] all the carrot incentives. And then that [135:37] brings up the stick incentive, which is [135:39] at least if you're an Indian player, the [135:42] stick incentive is, hey, you're going to [135:44] be happy with this or we're not going to [135:46] let you play on the international team [135:48] in India. Yep, that's exactly right. But [135:51] all that said, even if you were to have [135:54] a better collective bargaining system, [135:56] players were to make more in the auction [135:59] purse relative to the revenues of the [136:01] league, this would still be an [136:03] incredibly beautiful system. Every other [136:05] sports league in the world should adopt [136:07] this. They won't because the existing [136:10] systems that they all have are too [136:11] entrenched, but this is the new optimal [136:13] system for running a sports league. The [136:16] last point to the structure of the [136:17] auction is every 3 years there's a super [136:19] auction where everybody gets back in the [136:22] pool and it all resets except each team [136:25] can retain four players cuz you want [136:28] that local fandom, those franchise [136:31] players to stay franchise players. You [136:33] want the equivalent of Tom Brady playing [136:35] for the Patriots and building that brand [136:37] equity for the Patriots. Importantly [136:40] though, there is still a salary cap that [136:42] applies to that retained pool that then [136:45] does start to get a little harder to [136:47] police and opens the door up for more [136:49] side deals and other incentives, etc. [136:52] But for the most part, it really is an [136:55] incredibly elegant system here. Okay, so [136:57] here's the thing we glossed over, [136:58] listeners, and if you've been paying a [137:00] lot of attention, you might have caught [137:02] it and expected us to address this. It's [137:04] actually an enormous deal. We said right [137:08] now the teams in year 1 get 80% of the [137:12] central pool revenue and over time that [137:13] goes down to 50%. The question you [137:16] should be asking yourselves is well wait [137:17] where does the other 50% go? Cuz if you [137:21] listen to our NFL episode, we said the [137:23] NFL basically is a clearing house that [137:25] retains zero dollars at the end of every [137:27] year and redistributes 100% to the [137:29] teams. What do you mean teams only get [137:31] 50% of the central pool? The BCCI [137:35] retains 50% of the central pool revenue [137:39] which eventually gets huge. I mean, [137:41] these media rights deals, these team [137:43] sponsorships deals, I don't want to [137:44] spoil the numbers yet, but that is one [137:47] enormous difference between any other [137:51] sports system, especially the big four [137:52] in the US and what we're talking about [137:54] here, is there actually is a governing [137:56] body for the sport in the country that [137:59] sits a top the league that takes half [138:02] the [138:03] money. Uh, you know, India, it's crazy. [138:08] It's totally crazy, but it's super not [138:10] clear where the money goes. Definitely, [138:13] they spend a lot of money on stadiums [138:14] and upkeep and developing the game and [138:16] hiring coaches. Yeah, here's the [138:18] rationale. I will give you the argument. [138:20] The role of the BCCI is they are the [138:23] stewards of the game in India. And as [138:27] the largest and most important cricket [138:28] playing country in the world, deacto, [138:30] they are the stewards of the game around [138:31] the world. So, what that money is [138:33] intended to go to is two things. one [138:35] infrastructure like you said improving [138:38] the stadiums you know etc etc spoiler [138:40] alert for later in the episode doesn't [138:42] really go there right now and then the [138:45] second and um you know arguably more [138:47] important thing that the BCCI does with [138:49] that money is player development so [138:53] still today because the IPL is in its [138:57] infancy relative to other established [138:59] sports leagues the teams and franchises [139:03] themselves aren't set up to develop [139:05] talent in the way that say, you know, [139:08] Major League Baseball is the most [139:09] developed on this front. If you're a [139:11] Major League Baseball organization, you [139:12] have minor league baseball teams around [139:14] the country and around the world where [139:17] you are signing and developing players. [139:19] You've built out a spring training [139:21] facility. Yeah. And not just that, but [139:23] it is a 365day around the world global [139:26] operation where you are [139:29] identifying, developing, preparing [139:32] talent to play at the highest levels of [139:34] the game. Right now, none of the [139:37] individual teams, franchises themselves [139:39] in the IPL are doing that. They are [139:42] starting, but mostly that work falls on [139:45] the BCCI. Yep. I just call this out to [139:48] say two things. one, as we now move [139:51] forward in the story to the actual [139:53] franchise auction and who is buying [139:55] them. It's very different than buying an [139:57] NFL team where you are entitled to [140:00] 100% of 132nd of the leaguewide revenue. [140:04] As a team owner in the IPL, you're [140:06] entitled to 50% of the leaguewide [140:08] revenue. And does the BCCI need hundreds [140:10] of millions, if not billions of dollars, [140:12] to do player development and sort of [140:14] non-existent stadium infrastructure [140:16] development? No. And the second reason [140:18] is to put the question back to you, [140:19] David. You're harping on the fact this [140:21] is the new gold standard, which I agree [140:23] with. Do you need a BCCI in order to [140:27] create this system? Do you need a parent [140:30] governing body above the league? Cuz the [140:32] league is just the thin agreement [140:35] between a web of capitalist entities [140:38] called teams. And then the question is, [140:40] do you need some force above that? Oh, [140:43] this is great. You're setting up a [140:44] question I have at the end of the [140:46] episode. So, we will come back to that. [140:47] Great. So, okay, that's how the [140:49] franchise auction works. That is in the [140:51] information memorandum that goes out to [140:53] all the franchise biders for the [140:54] franchise auction. I mean, basically the [140:57] net of this, as we've implied all along, [140:59] is you're getting a pretty sweet deal [141:01] almost no matter what you bid. This is [141:03] one of these crazy situations in the [141:05] world where it's not about how big of a [141:09] finance brain you have to figure out, [141:12] oh, is this a good investment [141:13] opportunity? It's access. If one of [141:16] these franchises is offered to you, you [141:18] should have just said yes immediately [141:20] and bid whatever everyone else was going [141:22] to bid, this was a complete no-brainer. [141:25] And the question was, did it get offered [141:27] to you or not? That's the investment [141:29] decision. [141:31] Yes, L and the BCCI would say, "Oh, no, [141:34] no, no. Of course, it was open and [141:35] transparent." Anyone could have walked [141:37] in. Sure. In practice, on the ground, [141:39] almost assuredly, what you just said [141:40] there is 100% true. So minimum reserve [141:45] auction price for the franchise auction [141:47] is $50 million per franchise which would [141:50] be paid over 10 years $400 million for [141:52] the collective eight franchises. They [141:55] end up selling for $724 million [141:59] collectively. So there's a lot of [142:00] bidding that happens. So what 90-ish [142:02] million a team is the average? Yes. The [142:05] most expensive franchise is the Mumbai [142:07] franchise unsurprisingly being the [142:10] biggest city to where Bollywood is [142:11] located etc. That gosh really you [142:14] couldn't script this any better. Duh. Is [142:17] bought by Mukeshmani the wealthiest [142:19] person in India and the CEO of Reliance [142:21] for $112 million. Highest bid in the [142:25] auction but not like that much more. The [142:28] spread here is not that big between the [142:31] highest and the lowest. the way that the [142:34] weighing machine of this market turned [142:36] out is hey the teams actually are all [142:38] pretty equally valuable they did a great [142:41] job balancing the league that's exactly [142:43] what I read to only paying 110 million [142:46] totally the central revenue stream this [142:48] is an incredibly well architected league [142:50] y the cheapest franchise as we said is [142:52] the Rajasthan Royals which is bought by [142:54] a UK investor consortium led by manoj [142:56] badali who's actually lives in the UK in [142:59] London for $67 million so roughly half [143:02] the price of the Mumbai franchise. Shah [143:05] Ruk Khan's group gets the Kolkata [143:07] Nightriders for $75 million. Prizinta's [143:10] group gets the Kings 11 Punjab for $76 [143:13] million. Suspiciously close in price to [143:16] the $75 million Shah Ruk Khan bid, but [143:18] only $1 million more. Anyway, this I [143:21] think is known at the time one of the [143:24] other board members of the BCCI who [143:26] would soon become the chairman of the [143:27] BCCI, a gentleman named Anne Shrenvasan, [143:31] who also is an industrialist who owns [143:33] the Indian Cements Company. He buys the [143:35] Chennai Super Kings for $91 million [143:38] despite also being a board member of the [143:40] BCCI. Hey, hey, what do you know? He's [143:43] very interested in the development of [143:44] the game. Yeah, exactly. Very [143:46] interested. This is a huge resounding [143:49] success. And then on the back of the [143:52] franchise auction, couple weeks later, [143:54] now the player auction actually happens [143:56] and it goes exactly as predicted. [143:59] Interestingly, MS Dhoni, who's a [144:02] legendary Indian cricket player, he goes [144:04] for a million half dollars in the [144:07] auction, which was a huge spend. I mean, [144:10] remember the cap on the purse is $5 [144:12] million. So, you're spending one and a [144:14] half of your five on one player. And how [144:16] many players per team? There are 11 [144:19] players that play on the field at a [144:21] given time. So, you know, one of your 11 [144:25] playingers you're spending 30% of your [144:27] cap on. So, anyway, all this just like [144:30] lit prophesized, huge headlines just [144:32] adds to the media buzz. And then, at [144:35] least from a competitive parody [144:37] standpoint, it actually works. So, the [144:39] Rajasthan Royals, despite being the [144:41] cheapos, they bring better analytics [144:43] than anyone else to the auction. They [144:45] win the championship in the first year. [144:47] Now, we should also point out that they [144:49] have not won a championship since then [144:51] in the subsequent 16 iterations of the [144:54] IPL season, but today there are 10 teams [144:57] in the league and seven of the 10 teams [145:01] have won the championship in the what is [145:04] it call it 17 seasons that have been [145:06] played so far. Yep. And every single [145:08] team has at least been runner up, you [145:11] know, second place lost in the [145:12] championship game. Sounds well balanced. [145:14] So, if you're trying to design a [145:16] competitive parody league, this is a a [145:19] plus+ plus. You can see why so many [145:21] people tune in every single night in [145:24] prime time, end of March through end of [145:26] May. Yep. Okay. So, the promise of all [145:29] this sounds totally amazing and we know [145:31] it worked eventually, but most of the [145:33] things that we study on this show that [145:34] worked eventually kind of don't work at [145:36] first. That is not the case here. Yeah. [145:38] What does the first season look like? I [145:41] would say explosive right away is an [145:46] understatement. As you might expect, [145:49] given the incredible architecture of it [145:52] and lit force of will personality, this [145:56] thing is a sensation is all of the [146:01] predictions that they made, the business [146:03] plan, the soap opera, the every night [146:06] that this is going to be the biggest [146:07] thing ever to happen to media in India. [146:10] It's true. And it's true right away. [146:14] This never happens. Never. The Rolex [146:17] Daytona flop at first. The Birkin bag [146:23] not heralded as anything special for [146:24] like 20 years. I think it happened in [146:28] part because it had to happen. Lot was [146:30] running such a highwire act with all of [146:32] these year one deals like, "Hey, I [146:34] promise you this is going to work like [146:35] we all think in year one, and if it [146:37] doesn't, I'll shut it all down." Oh, [146:39] right. and acquired is subject to heavy [146:40] survivorship bias. So, we don't cover [146:42] the ones that No, this was like a [146:44] oneshot opportunity. There have been [146:46] many other highwire act oneshot [146:48] opportunities that we're just not [146:49] talking about. The one that immediately [146:51] comes to mind is Activision Blizzard [146:53] selling the Overwatch League bids. I [146:55] mean, that just didn't work right away [146:57] and then proceeded to continue not [146:58] working. Yes. To use a cricket analogy [147:01] here, this would be like you are a [147:04] batter facing the last ball of the game [147:08] and your team is down by five runs and [147:10] you need to hit a six to win. IPL hits a [147:13] six, but you've bet your entire life [147:15] savings and reputation on the fact that [147:17] a six is getting hit. If it hasn't been [147:18] obvious enough from what we've been [147:20] implying throughout the episode, the [147:23] underworld of India and the mafia is [147:25] definitely involved in all of this and [147:27] that is going to come up in a minute. So [147:29] it might not be an exaggeration to say [147:30] lives are being bet on this to some [147:33] extent. So April 18th, 2008, first game, [147:38] first match happens. The Royal [147:39] Challengers Bangalore as the visiting [147:42] team versus the home Kolkata Nightriders [147:45] owned of course by the one and only Shah [147:48] Ruk Khan. He's there. He's leading the [147:51] parade into the stadium doing the big [147:54] opening event broadcast around the [147:58] country. Every TV is watching. And in [148:01] the game, one of the star players for [148:03] the Night Riders, the home night riders, [148:05] Brendan McCullum, interestingly here, [148:07] international player, obviously not an [148:08] Indian, but bought at auction by the [148:10] Night Riders, [148:12] hits 158 in that first game for the [148:16] Kolkata Night Riders to win. That number [148:19] probably means nothing to many of you [148:20] who are not cricket fans yet. And I say, [148:22] "Yeah, because you might become one [148:23] after listening to all this." And the [148:25] people of you who do know cricket are [148:26] like, "Oh yeah, that was one of the [148:28] greatest moments of all time." To hit [148:30] 158, which means be responsible for 158 [148:32] runs in a T20 game where your entire [148:35] team is only facing 120 balls, you know, [148:39] pitches, opportunities to score, and you [148:41] personally score 158 runs on the balls [148:45] that you face. That is an epic [148:47] performance. Wow. What is your sense [148:51] of how organic it was that this was an [148:55] incredible spectacle right out of the [148:56] gate? I mean, it's hard to fake hitting [148:58] sixes. There's a lot of rigging that [149:00] would need to happen. There's a lot that [149:02] would need to go into that. From the [149:04] IPL's perspective, this could not be a [149:06] better story line. So, the whole season [149:11] basically goes amazingly. The [149:15] average TV share viewership for the [149:18] entire season is 4.9% of all active [149:22] televisions in India are watching IPL [149:25] like on average. And the first season [149:28] first season yes a lot of TVs there is [149:31] no single soap opera between 8 and 11 [149:34] p.m. that is getting that kind of viewer [149:36] share in India. It works. The final [149:40] match, the championship match is won in [149:42] the last ball by the underdog Rajasthan [149:45] Royals, the cheapos in dramatic fashion. [149:48] That final gets 10% viewership share of [149:51] all TVs in India are tuned in to that [149:54] final match. So it goes really, really, [149:57] really well. Oh, and we should say one [149:59] other element of this, there's a prize [150:00] pool that we didn't talk about. So, just [150:02] to add one more great game design [150:04] mechanic, the winner of the whole thing [150:07] gets, I think, a $3 million grand prize [150:11] in that first year. 5% of the central [150:14] media rights deal. And then that prize [150:15] pool is shared among the teams that make [150:17] the playoffs with the winner obviously [150:18] getting the most, which is great cuz [150:20] that actually is one thing that is kind [150:22] of a bummer about other sports leagues [150:24] is you're not monetarily compensated for [150:28] winning at all. I mean, of all the [150:29] playoff games, the Super Bowl, all that, [150:31] you get to win by having a franchise [150:33] that people love more, and it sort of [150:35] helps the durability of your franchise, [150:37] but you don't financially win that year [150:39] from that the way that you would if [150:41] there was a prize pool of millions of [150:43] dollars like how there is in the IPL. [150:45] Yes, this is the great irony of the NFL [150:47] that we learned after doing our episode [150:49] and we talked about when we reprised it [150:51] on the Armchair Expert podcast, which [150:53] was super fun, with Dax and Monica. [150:55] Winning the Super Bowl is actually like [150:57] a net negative economic event for an NFL [151:00] team. Now, in the long term, of course, [151:02] it's better. It's super positive, but [151:04] for the actual fiscal year that you are [151:06] operating when you win the Super Bowl, [151:08] it's massively net negative. And as we [151:10] all know from the Dallas Cowboys, you [151:11] don't need to win Super Bowls to make a [151:13] lot of money. That's right, Jerry Jones, [151:16] baby. [151:18] Just to tie the bow on that, the reason [151:19] why winning the Super Bowl costs you [151:21] money is you got to go play those games. [151:25] Usually in the playoffs, best case [151:27] scenario, if you've got the number one [151:28] seed, you're playing home games all the [151:30] way through, so you're not losing money. [151:31] But usually, you're playing some away [151:32] games. And then the Super Bowl is a de [151:34] facto away game for everybody. But [151:36] either way, you're not getting the same [151:38] share of tickets and luxury suites that [151:39] you usually would. And then the kicker [151:41] on top of that, all that is if you win, [151:44] then the city makes you pay for the [151:46] parade yourself. So anyway, but in all [151:50] seriousness, back to the point in the [151:51] IPL, this is so well architected. Yeah, [151:53] they're solving every little pain point [151:55] of other sports leagues. Super [151:57] interesting on the whole thesis [151:59] underlying the whole thing of like, can [152:01] we get non-male viewers? Can we get [152:04] women to watch this thing? Resoundingly [152:06] yes. In the first season, viewership was [152:10] about 30 to 35% women. So not 5050 [152:14] although today it is truly 50/50. Yeah. [152:17] But that's up from zero. No women were [152:20] watching international cricket before. I [152:21] mean no I'm sure there were some. So 30 [152:24] to 35% is a huge win. Like I said today [152:27] it's 50/50. Not only does this mean that [152:31] brand sponsors of commercials during the [152:34] broadcast can be both general interest [152:37] brands and brands focused at women. In [152:40] 2019, the Kings 11 franchise, they [152:44] actually, as one of their shirt sponsor [152:47] logos, bring on a beauty brand. Really? [152:50] So, this is the first women's focused [152:53] brand advertising directly as a sponsor [152:57] and as a jersey sponsor of a male sports [152:59] team anywhere in the world. Fascinating. [153:02] And I think that's continued and [153:03] probably a bunch more have uh come from [153:05] it. There's a great passage in Manoj [153:08] Badali the principal owner of the Royals [153:10] book where he talks about this. He says [153:12] the sight of Chris Gale monster hitter [153:14] Chris Gail's one of the West Indies [153:15] player one of the legendary big huge [153:18] think like Barry Bonds of cricket [153:20] essentially the site of Chris Gale [153:22] monster hitter sporting a woman's beauty [153:24] brand across his right pectoral is quite [153:27] something to behold. This is the [153:28] definition of disruptive advertising, or [153:31] as one ad executive put it, a hardcore [153:33] female brand on an alpha male chest. [153:36] Sales of Lotus Herbal's SPF moisturizer [153:39] were up 20%. The year that they decided [153:42] to sponsor the team. Wow. It is a hugely [153:45] important development. Absolutely. They [153:47] totally unlocked a new market. Wow. [153:50] Okay. So, that's the first season. [153:52] Everything goes to plan and just kind of [153:53] continues exponentially and perfectly up [153:55] from there, right? Yes. monotonically up [153:58] and to the right straight line from [154:00] there to [154:01] today. [154:03] No, year one. Incredible. Today even [154:08] more incredible times 20. In the [154:10] interim, a whole lot of zigs and zags [154:12] because the very next year the whole [154:14] thing almost blows up. But before we [154:16] tell that story, we'd like to thank [154:18] longtime friends of the show Cruso. [154:20] Crusoe is not just an AI cloud platform. [154:23] They are actually reimagining how AI [154:26] infrastructure gets physically built [154:28] from the ground up. Yep. In the past, [154:30] we've talked about Cruso's climate [154:32] aligned approach, powering their GPU [154:34] data centers with stranded energy. But [154:36] what's truly unique about Crusoe is that [154:38] they're a fully vertically integrated AI [154:41] infrastructure business. 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Just [156:51] tell them that Ben and David sent you. [156:53] Thank you, Crusoe. Okay. So, how does [156:55] the IPL almost all fall apart in years [156:58] two and three? Well, before it all [157:02] almost falls apart in year two, the off [157:05] season after year 1, LE, the [157:09] BCCI, all the teams, all the owners, [157:12] they're all riding high. This was an [157:14] enormous success beyond anyone's wildest [157:16] dreams. So I foreshadowed a little bit [157:19] ago in the TV rights deal with World [157:23] Sports Group and Sony that Led had given [157:26] him his word as a gentleman that if this [157:28] whole thing doesn't work, I'll rip up [157:30] the deal and I'll won't carry IPL [157:32] forward. You won't be on the hook for [157:34] the 940 million for the next 9 years. [157:37] Yep. Well, this thing was such a success [157:40] that all of a sudden 940 million for the [157:43] next 9 years is looking like a hell of a [157:45] steal, which they should benefit from [157:47] for signing a long-term deal. That's [157:49] what you would think. Lit rips up the [157:52] deal. Oof. Specifically, he engineers an [157:56] excuse and says that Sony had been [157:59] allowing Reliance's telecom division to [158:03] advertise during their commercial breaks [158:06] and that that violated Vodafone's [158:08] exclusivity over everything IPL because [158:11] Vodafone was a central corporate IPL [158:14] telecom sponsor. He also alleges that he [158:18] has evidence that Sony had been, at [158:21] least in certain markets, cutting away [158:24] from the game early to squeeze in extra [158:26] commercials and not showing all the [158:29] balls that were bold in an over. Who [158:32] knows if that's true or not? I don't [158:33] know. Could be. Is that the kind of [158:35] thing that means you tear up the [158:36] contract or do you call them and say, [158:37] "Hey, we know you're doing this. Please [158:38] don't do that anymore." I suspect that [158:41] had the IPL not been such a huge success [158:45] and lit were not looking to tear up the [158:47] contract, he would not have caught these [158:48] discrepancies, shall we say? Yes. And of [158:51] course, it's not till the end of the [158:52] season that he points all this out. On [158:54] the back of this, he strongarmms Sony [158:57] and World Sports Group into [159:00] renegotiating a new deal that is going [159:03] to be direct with Sony. They throw World [159:05] Sports Group a bit of a bone. I think [159:07] maybe they let them keep the [159:08] international rights, but Sony is now [159:11] going to directly do a 10-year deal with [159:14] the IPL for $2.4 billion. So, $240 [159:18] million a year, quite a bit more than [159:21] the $60 million that they had paid for [159:24] year 1. So, that's 4x the actual cash [159:28] out per year, and it's 2.4x 4x what the [159:32] theoretical value of the contract was [159:34] going to be on an annual basis. Yep. And [159:37] really just tells you everything you [159:39] need to know about how much of a success [159:41] this is here because Sony is willing to [159:44] say, "Okay, fine. I'll let you rip up [159:45] the contract and I'll pay you roughly [159:48] 4x." Right? Ultimately, they kept the [159:51] same broadcast partner but started [159:53] charging them four times as much. And [159:55] the broadcast partner was like, "Yeah, [159:56] that's still fine." Clearly, it meant [159:58] that there was a lot left on the table [159:59] that Sony was benefiting from in year [160:01] one because of how big of a success it [160:03] was. As Lot would point out, I made a [160:06] lot of money for everyone. Yep. So, [160:08] things start off well. I guess you would [160:10] call that well from IPL's perspective [160:12] during the offseason. But then, as we're [160:14] getting closer to the season launching [160:17] in [160:18] 2009, general elections are happening in [160:21] India and elections are contentious. [160:24] their security issues and the government [160:27] and various state police [160:30] organizations start coming to the BCCI [160:32] and the IPL and saying, "Hey, I'm not [160:34] sure that we can promise security at the [160:37] matches this season." And so they go [160:39] back and forth. They're like, "Oh, we [160:40] going to move some of the matches and [160:42] some of the states and can some of the [160:43] states provide security and not others?" [160:45] Ultimately, they decide, shoot, we can't [160:48] hold this thing in India at all. They go [160:51] full NBA bubble, right? It's like the [160:54] Disney bubble from COVID. Yes. So on [160:57] very short notice, I think like a month [160:59] notice, they airlift the entire [161:02] tournament out of India and move it to [161:05] South Africa and then they reset up all [161:08] the teams in South [161:12] Africa, you're now in Cape Town or you [161:15] know wherever. Wow. reassign teams to [161:17] all the cities and they restart the IPL [161:21] and they play it in South Africa. [161:24] Amazingly, it goes pretty well and this [161:27] actually becomes a great thing for the [161:28] IPL because it's still very popular in [161:31] India. It's broadcast back in India. Y [161:34] local revenue for the teams and the [161:36] stadium gate receipts and sponsorships [161:39] for the local teams was never that much [161:40] in India. Still isn't that much to this [161:42] day. So you're actually not sacrificing [161:44] much revenue by doing this. I think by [161:46] our calculations, we tried to estimate a [161:48] P&L for any given team. We're looking at [161:51] something today like 66 million coming [161:54] from a central pool and only like 4ish [161:57] million coming from tickets. This is a [161:59] TV product. Yes. And satellite signals [162:02] work just fine from South Africa to [162:05] India. Maybe even better cuz it's close [162:06] to the poles. Yeah, [162:08] maybe this really accelerates IPL [162:12] becoming a global phenomenon among the [162:14] cricket playing and cricket watching [162:16] countries of the world. The fact that [162:18] you can airlift the tournament out of [162:20] India, put it in another cricket playing [162:22] country, have it be just as successful, [162:25] have everybody be happy. You're only [162:27] growing the game by doing this. Yep. On [162:29] the back of that, heading into season 3, [162:31] they decide, all right, time to expand. [162:35] We're going to add two teams to the [162:37] league. We're going to do a two team [162:39] franchise auction in the same model as [162:41] the first one, except now we expect the [162:44] prices are going to be much higher. And [162:46] I will say only two teams does show some [162:48] restraint. The NFL's 32 teams, the NBA, [162:51] I mean, I could imagine a scenario where [162:54] they think, let's double it. We're [162:56] really feeling ourselves. Let's at least [162:58] do 68 teams. Yep. They do only do two. [163:02] That does show some restraint. The two [163:04] franchises that they auction off are [163:06] Pune and Coochi. And those go for [163:10] $333 million and [163:13] $370 million. A little bit higher than [163:16] 90. Now central revenue is higher from [163:20] the new broadcast deal that got [163:22] renegotiated renegotiated quote unquote [163:25] with Sony, but they are on the hook for [163:28] paying $33 million a year and $37 [163:31] million a year. Yeah. So, if you believe [163:34] that the team value should go up exactly [163:37] commensurate with the annualized value [163:39] of the TV contract, then this is the [163:41] correct price. They just had a big [163:43] payment that they owed the BCCI right [163:46] out of the shoot in year one. Yep. So, [163:49] unfortunately, these two new teams don't [163:52] make it. The Coochi franchise goes [163:55] bankrupt after their first season in the [163:57] league, withdraws from the league. The [163:59] Pune franchise makes it two seasons and [164:02] then also withdraws from the league [164:05] citing financial [164:07] difficulties. And this is the first time [164:10] really where the music stops playing for [164:12] Lot and despite his incredible [164:15] entrepreneurial success, he has made a [164:17] lot of enemies along the way. Yeah. And [164:19] everything was up into the right. [164:20] Everyone was making money together to [164:22] this point. you know, there was some [164:25] collateral damage from these other [164:27] people who had lost auctions or people [164:30] who lost out on the media rights, but [164:32] nobody had ever actually lost money yet, [164:34] right? And now for the first time, [164:36] people are losing money. And this is [164:38] when the knives come out for Modi, [164:40] right? And so he's got all these enemies [164:42] that were sort of dispersed but never [164:44] had any sort of real ability to come [164:47] after him. Yeah. This is their moment. [164:49] So after the 2010 season, the BCCI [164:54] suspends Modi from the BCCI board on 22 [164:59] charges, including bypassing the [165:02] governing council when making decisions, [165:05] not following proper [165:06] processes, bid rigging in auctions. [165:09] That's a big one. Who's going to get [165:11] teams? Yeah, pretty hard to say that [165:16] didn't happen. awarding contracts to his [165:18] friends, accepting kickbacks on the [165:20] broadcast deals. O and then the big [165:23] ones, first secretly engineering for [165:27] members of his family and close [165:28] associates to have initial ownership [165:31] stakes in three of the original eight [165:34] IPL teams. Now another BCCI board member [165:38] and Shrinavasan who I think by this time [165:40] had become the chair of the board and [165:42] was Lett's sort of main nemesis on the [165:44] BCCI board. He directly owned the [165:47] Chennai Super Kings through Indian [165:49] cements. So like, hey, pot calling the [165:51] kettle black here, right? And then the [165:53] last two are big ones that he's accused [165:54] of betting on the league and money [165:58] laundering. So I referred a minute ago [166:01] to sort of the underworld of India being [166:03] involved here. Gambling in India is [166:07] illegal writ large back then and still [166:09] to this day, it is illegal to gamble [166:11] full stop in India. However, as you [166:15] might expect, much like the movie [166:17] Casablanca, you would be shocked shocked [166:20] to find gambling going on in this [166:22] institution. There is a lot of money [166:24] gambled on cricket in India broadly and [166:27] on IPL specifically after it gets going [166:30] in many cases through foreign [166:31] bookmakers. Yeah. So much so the [166:34] statistic is that just trackable bets [166:38] placed through Ben like you said foreign [166:40] bookmakers in countries where gambling [166:41] is legal on IPL matches I believe is [166:45] something on the order of like $750 [166:48] million per match. It's a big business [166:51] huge and that's just what is trackable [166:53] legally in foreign countries. Clearly [166:56] there is also a big domestic bookmaking [166:58] market happening here too. It's just [167:01] happening by Thunderorld, the mafia. [167:03] Yep. So, the accusations are that Modi [167:07] is participating in this and actively [167:09] betting on games. Obviously, these are [167:11] really serious accusations. The courts [167:13] in India, the legal system gets [167:15] involved. The police get involved. As [167:17] this is all going down, Modi ends up [167:20] leaving India and relocating to London [167:23] where he still lives to this day. and he [167:26] has not set foot back in India since [167:29] 2010 when this all goes down. And in [167:32] 2013, the BCCI bars him from India [167:36] cricket for life. I mean, this thing [167:38] that he like willed into existence that [167:39] he created billions of dollars of value [167:41] for all these other people he has been [167:42] barred from. Yes. Modi of course denies [167:45] all of this and defends himself [167:47] vehemently to this day. You might ask, [167:50] why did he leave the country then when [167:51] all this went down? He actually recently [167:53] said on a podcast and has said this [167:55] publicly in several news outlets that [167:57] the Indian mafia had placed a hit on him [168:02] and were looking to take his life as he [168:04] put it because he refused to allow match [168:07] fixing to happen in the IPL and [168:10] obviously the mafia wanted match fixing [168:12] to happen. They're facilitating all this [168:13] illegal betting that's happening and who [168:15] wouldn't it be great if we could also [168:16] fix the matches? Dark stuff. Again, the [168:19] stories you hear are so divergent that [168:22] it's impossible to know. There's no [168:24] reconciling. There's no truth that is [168:26] converged upon. You know, as we started [168:28] off the episode with, he's a colorful [168:30] character. I think what really happened [168:32] here and the major point is, hey, [168:34] everything was working great as long as [168:36] the music was playing and Lot never lost [168:38] money for any of his partners. And then [168:40] that happened and then the knives came [168:42] out. Yep. And it's interesting, quite [168:46] interesting. all these very serious [168:48] allegations that get brought up against [168:50] Modi and then he ultimately the BCCI [168:53] decides that he did do them and bans him [168:54] for life in 2013 because the chairperson [168:57] of the BCCI at this point in time and [168:59] Lit's great rival who's one of the [169:01] forces behind ousting him is and [169:05] Shinasan the owner of the Chennai super [169:09] kings via his family's business Indian [169:13] cements well that very same season In [169:16] 2013, the Indian police run a sting [169:20] operation and bust members of two teams [169:25] in the IPL, the Rajasthan Royals and the [169:29] Chennai Super Kings owned by N Trinasan [169:33] for spot fixing matches. O, that'll kill [169:38] a league quickly if you don't get that [169:39] in check. Yeah, I mean already like all [169:41] the controversy from LA kicking out the [169:44] founder, the driving force behind all of [169:46] it. That's not good. The two expansion [169:48] teams folding, now you've got a police [169:52] bust of actual spot fixing happen. Now, [169:55] not match fixing. Match fixing would be [169:56] throwing the whole match. That would be [169:58] a big operation. You'd basically need [170:00] whole teams involved. Spot fixing, this [170:02] is saying like there's a betting line on [170:04] what's going to happen in each over, [170:06] like each set of six balls. And so [170:08] saying like, "Oh, I'm gonna pay this [170:10] bowler on this team to bowl poorly in [170:13] this over so that the batter he's facing [170:15] will perform better or vice versa on the [170:17] batter." Right. What's the real harm? It [170:20] doesn't affect the outcome of the game. [170:22] Exactly. Arguably, but massive trust [170:25] destroying amongst the fan base. [170:28] Horrible for the league. Especially [170:30] horrible when it's the BCCI [170:32] chairperson's team that is doing it. At [170:37] first entrasin denies everything, [170:39] refuses to step down from the BCCI. This [170:43] ultimately does become the best thing to [170:46] happen to the IPL. I think if this [170:48] hadn't happened and there had just been [170:51] the forcing out of Modi, things might [170:53] really have gone sideways here because [170:56] they got so much worse. This forces the [170:59] government of India to step in. So the [171:01] Indian Supreme Court steps in. They [171:05] basically take over the BCCI. They spend [171:08] two years investigating and [171:10] restructuring everything. And then in [171:13] 2015, they announce all their verdicts. [171:15] They force and Trinasan to step down [171:17] from the BCCI. They restructure the [171:19] BCCI. They suspend the two teams that [171:23] had been spotfixing, the Royals and the [171:26] Chennai Super Kings for two seasons. [171:28] Those teams are replaced for two seasons [171:31] by temporary franchises based in Pune [171:34] and Rajikott. And then the court [171:36] institutes a whole new clean slate set [171:39] of reforms and governance. And I've been [171:43] referring a couple times to Manoj Badali [171:44] and the book he wrote in New innings [171:46] about his experience owning and running [171:49] the Rajasthan Royals, the other team [171:51] that was suspended for two seasons. [171:54] Does he write about this in the book? [171:56] Totally writes about this. This is his [171:57] quote on he says this was a critical [171:59] moment in the IPL's evolution and also [172:02] in India's evolution. The IPL was fast [172:05] becoming a microcosm of the challenges [172:07] of doing business in India at large. For [172:10] years, foreign direct investment into [172:12] India had been slow. Historic concerns [172:14] had included political stability, [172:16] concerns about corruption, and the risk [172:18] of retrospective legislation. And so the [172:21] Supreme Court here stepping in and [172:23] basically saying we're going to backs [172:25] stop and fix all of this. The IPL is by [172:29] far the most visible industry where [172:31] India is the global leader with the [172:34] global most important business brand [172:37] entity in the world. We can't be seen as [172:40] like this is a whole sham run by the [172:42] mafia. We're going to clean it all up. [172:44] And they basically did. I mean from here [172:47] on out it's a professional organization. [172:50] Totally. So, another quote from our good [172:53] friend of the show here, Ed Cowan, who [172:55] is a investor at TDM Growth. We did a [172:58] great ACQ2 episode with them a couple [173:00] years ago. Ed was the perfect person for [173:03] us to talk to during this episode [173:05] because not only is he a good friend of [173:07] the show, he is a former Australian [173:09] professional cricket player who was [173:11] coming up right around the time the IPL [173:13] was started, was actively playing right [173:15] through all of this happening. and Ed [173:19] did the business breakdowns episode [173:21] about the IPL which has been an amazing [173:24] resource for us and we'll link to the [173:26] show notes was a great great episode and [173:28] then we talked to him afterwards. So [173:29] here's Ed's quote about this. In many [173:31] ways, the IPL was a bit of a bellweather [173:33] for foreign investment at scale. And the [173:35] government realized that it was in their [173:36] best interest to promote a vision that [173:38] proper governance really was at the [173:40] forefront of the new modern India. And [173:42] it was important for people to be able [173:43] to invest in India. And in many [173:45] respects, the current structure where we [173:47] have Redbird or CBC, big institutional [173:50] investors in the IPL, which we will get [173:51] to in just a sec, that wouldn't have [173:53] been possible without the new governance [173:55] structures that were put in place [173:56] circuit 2015 by the Supreme Court. I [173:59] mean, this whole thing almost went down [174:00] the tubes. Like, it was this close and [174:03] the Supreme Court saved it. You had [174:05] something on the order of at the time [174:07] four five billion dollars of enterprise [174:09] value across all the teams that almost [174:11] went to zero. Yep. But the more [174:13] important thing though is yes, there's [174:14] the value and money aspect of it, but [174:17] it's India's reputation. There are other [174:20] industries where India is a global [174:22] leader, but they tend to be more back [174:24] office type industries like outsourcing [174:26] like Infosys, Whipro, etc. You look at [174:28] the biggest companies in India by market [174:30] cap and they are all either global [174:34] outsourcing companies, back office type [174:35] companies or purely domestically focused [174:38] companies. So like Tata, Reliance etc. [174:41] These are huge huge conglomerates but [174:43] especially at that point in time they're [174:44] not particularly active as global [174:47] leaders outside of India. The IPL has [174:50] kind of against all odds become like [174:53] India's national champion here. That's [174:54] such a great point. That's kind of a [174:56] crazy statement to make, but it's true. [174:59] Wow. Yeah. So, again, horrible moment [175:03] for the league, for the owners, for [175:05] Modi, for Shrinavasan, but frankly, kind [175:09] of necessary to clean this all up and [175:12] make it ironclad enough that global [175:13] private equity firms and global media [175:15] companies in the ensuing years continue [175:18] to come in and invest in this league. [175:20] All right. So, catch us up then through [175:22] the 2010s. There's another meteorite [175:25] deal, right? Yep. So, 2017, after the [175:28] dust has settled on all this, the [175:31] original meteorite steel is finally up. [175:33] Or the renegotiated quote unquote [175:35] original meteorite deal, the 10-year [175:38] Sony redone deal. Yes, it's finally up. [175:41] And Modi is no longer in the driver's [175:44] seat here. So, who comes in and does the [175:48] deal? Rupert Murdoch star. Rupert [175:53] finally finally after what are we now 10 [175:56] 11 years in 12 years in comes back to [176:00] Indian cricket and does a $2.5 billion [176:06] five-year deal. So twice the value of [176:09] the renegotiated Sony deal. So $500 [176:12] million a year media rights. Yep. The [176:15] renegotiated Sony deal was 2.4 billion [176:18] over 10 or nine. So we've gone from [176:22] 60/00 to 250 to now to 500 a year. Yep. [176:27] So that happens in the first half of [176:29] 2017 and then the other shoe drops [176:34] December 2017. Disney acquires all of [176:37] 21st Century Fox for I think about $70 [176:40] billion inclusive of Star and all the [176:43] operations in India and this contract. [176:46] Now obviously that deal was about way [176:48] more than just this contract but this [176:49] was an important piece of it. It's so [176:51] funny that it ends up being 15 years [176:54] later 20 years later. I mean recall all [176:56] the way back there was the India [176:59] subsidiaries of Fox and Disney merged [177:02] and got the cricket deal preIPL and now [177:06] you have Disney and Fox globally merging [177:10] and IPL was a big part of this because [177:14] there's something else that happens in [177:15] India the year before in 2016 which is [177:19] Reliance launches Reliance Geo. Yes. Now [177:23] I remember when this was happening. [177:25] Facebook invested $5.7 billion for a 10% [177:30] stake in this new subsidiary of [177:32] Reliance. What is Reliance Geo? It is a [177:36] smartphone data provider. It's a telecom [177:39] wireless data service for smartphones in [177:43] India. And Mukeshani and Reliance Geo [177:46] basically slashed the price of data [177:49] plans to effectively zero in India. So [177:53] before Reliance Geo launched in 2016, [177:56] smartphone ownership in India was [177:58] dimminimous. 30 million handsets was the [178:01] active install base. Wow. Out of 1.4 [178:05] billion people. Yeah. So you know, it's [178:06] only just the upper class. In 2016, [178:09] that's 9 years after the iPhone came out [178:11] and like five or 6 years after it became [178:13] the deacto standard computing platform [178:15] in the US. Yeah. And there's already [178:17] cheap Android everywhere. This is like [178:18] the version of India not getting [178:20] television until the '90s. We're talking [178:22] 2016 here and smartphone penetration is [178:24] still basically zero. And the reason was [178:26] because data plants were still really [178:27] expensive. Vodafone, the other carriers, [178:30] they were pricing data in India at the [178:34] same level as data in the US. So it was [178:37] just totally inaccessible to the [178:39] population. Crazy. Reliance Geo comes in [178:41] 30 million handsets when they launch in [178:43] 2016. Fast forward six years to [178:47] 2022, 800 million installed base of [178:50] handsets. So this is the other thing [178:53] that completely turbocharges IPL and is [178:58] why IPL and IPL rights become so [179:00] important for Disney because smartphone [179:03] adoption, mobile adoption is happening [179:05] in India. What is Disney and Bob Iger's [179:09] number one strategic priority during [179:11] this period? Globalization. Well, not [179:13] just globalization. That's always a [179:14] priority, but Disney Plus. Oh, right. [179:17] And uh what are you going to count in [179:19] Disney Plus? I mean, Netflix counts [179:20] their subscribers all over the world as [179:22] Netflix subscribers. Iger has those [179:24] three big principles in his book. The [179:26] first was around the best IP in the [179:29] world. The second was around going [179:31] global and the third was about [179:33] technology leadership and owning our [179:34] distribution platforms 100%. And so [179:37] Disney Plus is the major strategic [179:40] priority. You've now got Star that has [179:44] the digital and terrestrial TV rights to [179:47] IPL, which is the biggest driver of [179:49] media consumption in the country by far. [179:52] Not even close. Disney's trying to grow [179:55] and juice Disney Plus subscribers. What [179:57] is the very best thing you could do? Get [179:59] IPL rights and stream them on Disney [180:01] Plus. Boom. There you go. So 500 million [180:06] a year for 5 years starting in 2017. [180:09] that goes up until there's a new deal [180:12] that comes online in 2022. [180:14] Yep. Before that though, the other piece [180:18] of this Star deal, new deal for IPL was [180:23] because a it was a much bigger [180:25] investment and Star and Rupert were [180:28] dying to get back into Indian cricket [180:30] and now you've got this mobile streaming [180:32] opportunity happening, especially once [180:34] Disney acquires the company. They invest [180:36] a lot more in production values for [180:38] these IPL broadcasts. All the stuff that [180:42] you see in North American or European [180:44] sports broadcasts, they do. They mic up [180:46] the players. They put mics on the [180:48] wickets. They add graphics packages. [180:50] There's way more cameras. There's like [180:52] little cameras all over the place on the [180:54] field. The I don't know if it's called [180:55] an umpire or referee, but someone [180:57] wearing a hat has a little camera on the [180:58] top of their hat. Yep. Exactly. Remember [181:01] the broadcasters before this, for all of [181:03] Lit's entrepreneurial success and [181:06] talent, he was getting broadcasters that [181:10] weren't experienced in sports to come do [181:12] this. This was Nimbus' first sports [181:15] entree. This was Sony's first sports [181:17] entree in India. You have Star, Fox, [181:22] News Corp, Disney coming in now and [181:24] taking over. Like there's going to be a [181:25] whole new level of professionalism [181:27] coming in. They also start marketing the [181:30] matches differently. So like there's [181:32] always been the incredible soap opera [181:34] story to IPL and that's the appeal to at [181:37] least half the country. Oh come on. [181:39] These story lines are so appealing to [181:40] men too. Just look at college football. [181:42] Look at the NFL. It's the story lines. [181:44] It's these dramas. It's the soap operas [181:46] that captivate us. Any NFL football fan [181:48] who pretends that it's not a soap opera [181:50] is lying to themselves. Oh the ESPN [181:52] alerts during the offseason of who's [181:54] signing where and Yeah. totally. So Star [181:58] starts marketing matches differently. [182:01] They have like rivalry week. They [182:03] basically take the playbook from all the [182:05] best practices of Fox and ESPN all [182:08] throughout the world and bring them here [182:09] to the IPL. The other thing they do is [182:13] the dynamics of language in India are [182:16] super interesting. So English is the [182:18] lingua frana of the country but it is [182:22] almost everyone's second language. H [182:25] there are a whole set of big languages [182:29] that are primary different languages [182:31] spoken by different regions in the [182:33] country and Hindi is the biggest of [182:35] those right Hindi is the biggest yeah so [182:37] the official languages of India are both [182:39] Hindi and English and can't just be [182:42] Hindi because then you're leaving out a [182:44] huge portion of the population that [182:45] doesn't speak Hindi so this is amazing [182:48] for all the dynamics here at play and [182:50] these international companies and [182:51] foreign direct investment But not [182:54] everybody speaks English and it's the [182:57] second language. So remember the whole [183:00] genius of the IPL is that there's only [183:01] one game going on at a given point in [183:04] time. So Star takes the feed from [183:06] whatever the live game is. They set up a [183:08] central studio in Mumbai with eight [183:11] different floors and eight different [183:13] anchor desks who have commentators [183:15] commentating in the eight biggest Indian [183:17] languages that are then rebroadcast out [183:19] to those regions in the primary local [183:22] language. And this one game at a time [183:23] thing is so genius, too, because the way [183:26] that they make the whole thing work with [183:28] this player auction, the players are [183:30] kind of moving around a lot. So, you're [183:32] a fan of a team, but your favorite [183:35] player might go somewhere else. And so, [183:36] if you're a fan of a player, you're kind [183:38] of fans of multiple teams. So, what ends [183:41] up happening is you end up becoming a [183:43] fan of the league. You have a team you [183:45] like, you have players you like, but [183:47] since the players are kind of [183:48] everywhere, you just like IPL, period. [183:51] Yes, there is definitely some affinity [183:54] to your, you know, if you live in [183:55] Mumbai, you probably have affinity for [183:57] the Mumbai Indians, but you probably [184:00] have more affinity to Virat Kohli or MSI [184:04] or etc. You're not going to miss those [184:06] games. Yes. And you may not speak that [184:08] primary language there. In fact, you [184:10] probably don't. Yep. So, all of this [184:13] works incredibly well. You've got the [184:15] major tailwind of Reliance Geo. You've [184:17] got the professionalization. You've got [184:18] the local languages. The 2019 IPL final [184:22] match is broadcast on 17 channels across [184:25] the country in different languages plus [184:28] digital over the top. The final [184:31] viewership numbers best estimates are in [184:33] 3 to 400 million unique viewers that are [184:37] watching the 2019 IPL final. And just [184:41] for context on that, the most recent [184:44] 2025 Super Bowl was the biggest Super [184:48] Bowl ever. And I think de facto that [184:51] makes it the biggest broadcast TV event [184:54] in US history. Ben, do you remember what [184:57] the viewership numbers were on this 2025 [185:00] Super Bowl comped against the 2019 IPL [185:04] final? You told me this recently. Uh 120 [185:08] 130 something like that. Yep. 138 [185:10] million Wow. viewers for the biggest US [185:14] TV event in history. Back in 2019, there [185:17] were already three 400 million people, [185:19] over twice that, watching the IPL final. [185:23] And it would only grow from there. In [185:25] 2022, the IPL regular season uniques [185:29] across the season were 361 million. [185:33] 2023, that would grow to 50 million. And [185:37] then last year, it was reported that on [185:40] streaming alone, 620 million people [185:43] watched it. I mean, so you're talking [185:45] about close to half the country is [185:48] watching the regular season. Yes. Yes. [185:52] This thing is so big on streaming. So [185:56] presumably once you put TV in there too. [185:58] Yeah. That was the big bet and the [186:01] payoff of the Reliance Geo entering the [186:04] data market in 2016 and smartphone [186:06] adoption just exploding in India. Right. [186:09] So then 2021 IPL does expand [186:13] successfully. This time there are two [186:15] new teams sold at auction. The Gujarat [186:18] Titans which are acquired by the big [186:21] British private equity firm CVC for $750 [186:24] million. That's the new high water mark. [186:27] Before that I think it was what 300 [186:29] million. Well, it's the new high water [186:31] mark for a minute because the other [186:33] team, the Lucknow Super Giants, are [186:35] bought by a domestic investor group for [186:38] 950 million. So, just a hair under a [186:40] billion, 10x off the original purchase [186:43] price of the teams in 2008. Now, the [186:44] payment terms are paid in equal ratible [186:48] installments over 10 years. And then [186:50] this time, those payments are [186:52] redistributed to the other existing [186:55] eight teams in the league. Oh, really? [186:58] Because the new teams coming in are [186:59] diluting the central meteorite values in [187:02] full or 50% of it. That's a good [187:04] question. I don't know if it's 50% BCCI, [187:07] 50% the teams. Either way, the BCCI is [187:10] still taking their 50% cut. However, [187:12] post the Supreme Court reforms is a much [187:15] more buttoned up organization. Makes [187:17] sense. Also in 2021, Redbird, which is a [187:22] US New York City based sports focused [187:25] private equity firm, they invest in the [187:27] Rajasthan Royals. So we've come so far [187:29] here that the Rajasthan Royals, the [187:31] cheapo franchise in the beginning, had [187:33] the original foreign direct investment [187:34] from the UK, then were part of the spot [187:38] fixing scandal, gets suspended for two [187:40] years. Now you've got one of, if not the [187:43] biggest sports private equity firm in [187:46] the world. I think Redbird is like a $10 [187:48] billion assets under management firm. [187:51] Coming in and investing in that [187:52] franchise in the IPL. Yep. Global stage. [187:55] And it really just speaks to like the [187:57] Supreme Court cleaning things up in 2015 [187:59] was absolutely huge for the IPL. Yep. So [188:03] all that takes us to summer of [188:06] 2022 after the IPL season. The star deal [188:10] is up. Time for a new rights deal. Time [188:13] for a new rights deal. And the [188:16] BCCI signs not one but two deals, [188:20] separate deals for terrestrial [188:22] television and digital streaming. They [188:24] break it into a 2 by two matrix. They [188:26] say there's international and there's [188:28] domestic and then there's streaming and [188:30] there's TV. The international deals are [188:32] small. Now, who wants to bid on which [188:35] one? So the big ones, the domestic [188:38] deals. Star reups on the TV deal for [188:42] just over $3 billion for five years. [188:45] Yes. For the five years, Disney Star [188:47] re-ups their deal, but they just get the [188:49] TV rights, right? And it is just on the [188:52] Indian subcontinent for 3.1ish billion. [188:56] So that's only 500 million more than the [188:59] two and a half that they did the [189:01] previous time in 2017. But that was both [189:04] TV and streaming. This is three billion [189:07] just for terrestrial TV. Yes. Now the [189:11] other side of this, the digital rights, [189:14] the streaming is Viacom 18 for another [189:18] 3.1ish billion. Yeah. Actually slightly [189:20] more than the TV deals. Ah, do you know [189:25] who Viacom 18 is? Oh boy, do I ever know [189:27] who Viacom 18 is. This is a huge part of [189:30] the story. Viacom 18 is a joint venture [189:34] between Paramount and Reliance. Yep. So, [189:38] locally that ends up being broadcast on [189:40] what they call geocinema, which is their [189:42] streaming service. Yep. When you say [189:43] broadcast, digital over the top [189:45] geocinema on smartphone apps. Now, we're [189:48] just talking about the Indian [189:49] subcontinent here. It's quite [189:50] interesting that they're about the same [189:52] price, the streaming and the TV. The [189:54] streaming is small but growing way [189:57] faster and the TV is very large but [190:00] flat. And it's really interesting. I [190:02] think Disney wanted to also go for the [190:05] streaming rights, but I think the [190:08] assumptions you have to make about the [190:10] growth and monetization potential of [190:12] streaming are a pretty big leap to say, [190:15] "Yeah, they're worth the same as TV now, [190:17] which has a lot of hungry advertising [190:20] customers standing there with cash now [190:22] saying, "I want to advertise on this [190:23] product." Whereas you're really betting [190:25] on the next four or five years on [190:27] streaming to materialize. But who better [190:30] to bet on that materializing than [190:32] Reliance Geo? This is enormous. Disney, [190:37] it was a real real problem that they [190:40] lost the digital rights in the bidding [190:43] here. Remember Disney Plus is the [190:46] cornerstone of Disney strategy at this [190:49] point in time under Iger. Iger has come [190:51] back. That's right. 2022 was the return [190:54] of Bob. He architected this before he [190:56] left. He's now come back from retirement [190:58] and Disney Plus has gone from the most [191:02] incredible greatest strategy, greatest [191:03] thing from sliced bread to this total [191:05] albatross hanging around the company's [191:08] neck and now they lose IPL digital [191:11] streaming rights. So the next quarter [191:14] when Disney reports earnings, remember [191:16] Disney Plus been the cornerstone of the [191:18] company's strategy for the last five, [191:20] six, seven years and it had been [191:22] growing. It would have been this great [191:23] success story. Success story through co [191:25] it's now up to people are talking about [191:27] is this a true competitor to Netflix? [191:29] Disney's passed 150 million global [191:32] Disney Plus subscribers. This turns the [191:34] tide. I think it's the first quarter [191:36] where they have a net subscriber loss. I [191:38] think of what like 2 three million [191:41] Disney Plus subscribers that they lose [191:42] on a net basis. Something like that. You [191:45] can very clearly see in this chart [191:46] though, it's growing and growing and [191:47] growing every quarter and then it starts [191:49] this fivearter slide right there in [191:52] 2022. And the interesting thing is if [191:54] you break it out, the Disney Plus core [191:57] actually does keep growing, but Disney [191:59] Plus Hot Star takes this huge hit and [192:02] starts contracting. That's right. They [192:04] start breaking it out, I think, at this [192:06] point to be like, "Oh no, it's India." [192:07] Yes, it's exactly right. Yeah, this is a [192:10] huge problem for Disney. So you got this [192:12] two $3 billion deals that don't quite [192:15] add up to 6.2. We haven't talked about [192:17] the international rights yet. [192:18] Interestingly enough, Viacom 18 not only [192:21] acquired the digital rights on the [192:22] Indian subcontinent, they also acquired [192:25] both the terrestrial and digital rights [192:29] internationally. So part of that $3 [192:32] billion deal that Viacom 18 did is for [192:36] the other three quadrants. It's not just [192:39] the Indian subcontinent digital. It's [192:43] that and all international. Uh, [192:45] interesting. But it's not quite all [192:47] international. It's international in [192:50] Australia, New Zealand, the UK, South [192:52] Africa, the cricket playing countries. [192:54] Yep. There's a second little carveout. [192:56] This piddly little thing. There's a [192:58] company called Times Internet that paid [193:00] $26 million for the Middle East and $33 [193:03] million for the USA. The current [193:07] fiveyear rights to watch cricket in the [193:10] USA are only worth $33 million out of a [193:14] $6.2 billion package. And I will say I [193:18] tried really hard to go watch some full [193:20] IPL matches. Times Internet's US [193:23] property, Willow TV, is terrible. I [193:26] couldn't find a single match to watch. [193:28] Presumably during the season it's easy [193:30] to watch what's currently live right [193:32] now, but trying to watch last year's [193:34] matches on Willow in the US, 33 million [193:37] is apparently not paying for a very good [193:39] website to be able to do that. So the [193:41] real question basically right now is [193:44] what is that going to be the next time [193:47] the rights come up? Yes. In January [193:50] 2024, so a year ago, the presenting [193:53] sponsorship for the whole league came up [193:55] again. Tata, the of course big Indian [193:57] conglomerate, bought it for 60 million a [194:00] year for five years. So a $300 million [194:02] deal. That brings us to today. You've [194:05] got under these new media rights deals [194:06] that we were just talking about. Call it [194:09] 1 and a4 billion in media rights revenue [194:12] coming in central to the league. Yep. [194:14] Then another, you know, call it 150 to [194:17] 200 million in total central [194:19] sponsorships coming into the league of [194:21] which Tata is the anchor at 60 million a [194:23] year. So round that up to call it all in [194:26] a billion5 annually coming in central to [194:30] the league. Guaranteed revenue. Yep. [194:33] Guaranteed long-term rights deals asset [194:36] light so to speak. You can now start to [194:39] understand why the league collectively [194:41] has been most recently valued at $16 [194:45] billion and why the most successful [194:47] teams like the Mumbai Indians are around [194:50] 1.3 billion. Average teams about one [194:53] billion in valuation. There's real [194:55] revenue here to support those numbers [194:57] now. Absolutely. So, this is a TV game. [195:01] Media rights and central sponsorships [195:03] are still by far the lion's share of [195:05] total revenue coming into the league. [195:07] Local revenue that the franchises are [195:09] generating. This is ticket sales, luxury [195:12] boxes such that they exist, suites at [195:14] the stadiums. We'll get into that in a [195:16] minute. Local sponsorships, etc. That's [195:19] probably 15ish% of total revenue in the [195:22] league. So [195:24] 85ish% revenue on the central media [195:27] rights and sponsorships, 15-ish% local. [195:30] Yep. Add all that together, you've [195:32] probably got 1.7 1.6 billion in total [195:37] revenue that's flowing into the league [195:38] annually. Now, here's the kicker. All of [195:42] this is for a league that currently only [195:45] plays 74 games in a season that only [195:49] lasts two months. So, one way to [195:53] benchmark different leagues against [195:55] another by scale, impact, revenue, [195:58] value, etc., is to adjust for how many [196:01] matches they play. There's a difference [196:04] between the IPL that only plays 74 [196:06] matches and Major League Baseball that [196:08] plays what did you say about Ben 2,000 [196:10] some odd games about 2500. So if you [196:13] look at that revenue coming into the [196:15] league on a per match basis IPL is [196:20] already the second most valuable league [196:23] in the world behind the NFL. Second most [196:25] revenue per match in the world. It's [196:27] like 161 17 million per match in media [196:31] rights that are sold. Yeah. So, Ben, I [196:33] think you have like the whole list here [196:34] that you built out. Yeah. Well, I read [196:36] so many articles about this that all [196:39] seemed to contradict each other. And [196:43] from our NFL episode, I felt like you [196:44] and I had a pretty good understanding of [196:46] all the different ways that the NFL had [196:49] sliced their revenue. And I just thought [196:50] that these people are all misreporting [196:53] this information. So, I went and added [196:54] all the deals together from each league, [196:57] divided it by the number of games played [196:58] in each league. The NFL is so far ahead [197:01] of everything else that it's a little [197:03] bit farcical to say the IPL is second. [197:06] If you include the NFL Network, which I [197:08] think you should, even though some of [197:10] that is non-game content, the reason [197:12] people care about NFL Network is that it [197:14] has Red Zone. So, I included that. So, [197:16] you got ESPN, ABC, Disney's deal, Fox's [197:20] deal, CBS's deal, NBC's deal, Amazon's [197:22] deal, Google's deal with YouTube, [197:25] Netflix's deal, Peacock's deal, and the [197:28] NFL Network. The NFL does a total of $14 [197:31] billion a year in media rights revenue [197:35] across not that many games, 285 total [197:38] games. So, the NFL does somewhere [197:41] between 45 and $49 million per game in [197:47] media rights revenue. Now, sure, IPL [197:49] cricket at 16 is number two because [197:52] English Premier League somewhere in the [197:53] 1516 range, but the NFL is three times [197:57] the next highest, right? And so then if [198:00] you look at a total revenue basis, the [198:03] NFL total annual revenue, everything [198:05] local central added up is on the order [198:08] of $20 billion a year. And then like we [198:11] just walked through with IPL right now, [198:13] it's call what 1617 billion a year for a [198:18] 17-year-old league that only has 10 [198:20] teams and only plays 74 games a year. [198:22] All of this incredible already. If you [198:24] look at it on the per match basis, it's [198:27] number two to the NFL. And everyone else [198:29] is really far behind. We should say [198:30] English Premier League is the only one [198:32] that's sort of rivaling IPL cricket. But [198:34] the NBA is the next closest at 5.3 [198:37] million. So a third of soccer or [198:40] cricket. Then you've got La Liga, which [198:42] is the Spanish soccer league. You've got [198:44] uh what's Germany's league, David? [198:46] Bundesliga. And that's also around five. [198:49] But then MLB is like a million7 per [198:52] game. The NHL's 800,000 per game. Major [198:54] League Soccer 500,000 a game. The quote [198:57] unquote big four in the US, it's really [199:00] the NFL and everyone else in terms of [199:02] media rights revenue per game. Yep. So, [199:05] the per match thing is an interesting [199:07] way to look at this from an advertising [199:10] perspective. It's interesting if you [199:12] were renting the facility and you're [199:15] trying to get the most money out of my [199:16] facility rental for that night or you [199:19] know some sort of classic unit economics [199:22] like that. But really, if you're a team [199:24] owner, the interesting thing is not how [199:27] much revenue or profit is generated per [199:29] game from meteorites. It's absolute [199:31] economic impact of this, right? And I [199:33] don't care how many games they play at [199:36] all. I care how valuable is the [199:37] franchise that I own and how big of a [199:40] business can I build around owning the [199:42] franchise. Totally. It's a tenth the [199:45] size of the NFL today by that respect. [199:47] Right now the question is what is the [199:49] total value of the MLB if the total [199:52] value of the IPL is $16 billion? How [199:55] does that league value compare to other [199:57] league values? I think that's an [199:59] interesting way to look at it. But [200:00] again, nobody owns a league. People own [200:02] teams. So, probably the most interesting [200:05] way to look at it is how does a $1 [200:07] billion valuation for the average IPL [200:10] team stack up to other leagues around [200:13] the world. It's not NFL, it's not NBA, [200:16] but it's kind of amazing that in 161 17 [200:19] years these things are in the billion [200:21] dollar conversation. Remember the [200:23] Clippers when Steve Balmer bought it was [200:25] only two billion. NBA franchises today [200:27] are like five, six, seven billion [200:29] dollars, something like that. But it is [200:31] sort of quickly entering that [200:32] conversation and half of the revenue [200:35] gets taken before you even get to see a [200:38] dollar by the BCCI. Yes. I mean yes. [200:42] It's crazy. So maybe put another way, is [200:45] there a world where these are actually [200:47] $2 billion teams if the BCCI wasn't [200:50] taking half of it? Yes, absolutely. You [200:52] would have a lot more costs like player [200:54] development and stadiums. So anyway, [200:56] that's sort of the few different ways to [200:59] slice it. There's the per game, there's [201:01] what's the league worth, there's what's [201:02] the individual teams worth. I also [201:04] wanted to try to figure out on a [201:05] multiple basis, how reasonable are these [201:08] valuations? It's a billion dollar [201:10] valuation on these teams for anyone [201:12] buying in. Again, on average, I suspect [201:14] some of them will go for more. What is [201:16] the actual income statement look like? [201:19] It's impossible to know for sure because [201:21] none of this is public and reported. It [201:23] seems reasonable that they would do 70 [201:26] 80 million in revenue. That's after the [201:28] BCCI take. It's inclusive of the local [201:30] revenue. So think about a business [201:31] that's doing $780 million topline. The [201:34] salary cap is $17 million and you're not [201:37] paying any stadium and your only debt [201:39] service is if you are still paying a [201:42] franchise fee back to the BCCI, you have [201:44] almost no costs in this business, right? [201:46] So, as you're comparing business [201:48] dynamics here versus other leagues and [201:51] particularly the NFL, on the one hand, [201:53] you've got this albatross, if you will, [201:55] of the BCCI taking 50% of central [201:57] revenue, but you don't have the players [201:58] taking 50% of your revenue the way the [202:00] NFL does, and you don't have the capital [202:03] heavy nature of the stadiums, which [202:05] there's risk and opportunity to that, as [202:07] we'll get into in a minute. Exactly. So, [202:09] I think the team net income right now is [202:13] about $50 [202:15] million. [202:16] on a pre-tax basis, but there's no [202:18] depreciation and other I mean they're [202:20] not material anyway. So you got a [202:22] business that is doing $80 million [202:25] topline and 50-ish million on the IBIDA [202:28] line. This is a 60 [202:32] 65% IBIDA margin business. They're [202:36] growing really quickly. Like every 5 [202:38] years there's this massive step up in [202:40] media rights. And because these [202:42] businesses have crazy operating [202:43] leverage, it all kind of does fall to [202:45] that bottom line. And again, the reason [202:47] for the operating leverage is because [202:49] the player contracts just don't grow [202:51] that fast, but the media rights revenue [202:53] is growing incredibly fast. So there's [202:54] this ridiculous operating margin that [202:57] has kind of kicked in this media cycle. [202:59] They used to be break even and then they [203:02] were pretty profitable and now they're [203:03] really, really profitable. And as [203:05] revenue keeps going, they're going to [203:07] get really, really, really profitable. [203:08] Right? So right now at a billion dollar [203:11] valuation that's 20 times IBIDA you know [203:15] pre-tax earnings whatever you want to [203:16] call that and it's what 12x revenue [203:19] that's a pretty attractive valuation as [203:21] an investor right well whatever they are [203:24] they're market valued right there is a [203:26] competitive market both to buy and sell [203:28] equity in these teams right now we [203:30] aren't saying that something's high or [203:31] low it just it's interesting to see what [203:34] the market values it at and there is a [203:37] reasonable financial valuation here [203:41] unlike many of the other leagues where [203:43] the teams trade primarily on asset [203:45] values instead of as P&L is you know [203:47] scarcity value right so David we're sort [203:50] of arriving here in analysis and to [203:52] start there's sort of an idea that you [203:54] planted yes so I proposed to you a [203:57] couple days ago that we bring back a [203:58] version of the bull and bear case that [204:00] we used to do here on acquired and in [204:04] this case I think we should do bull bear [204:08] and Megabel case because I think there [204:11] is a megabable case here. And the [204:13] question specifically we should address [204:16] in this should be is there a reasonable [204:19] path that the IPL could 10x in revenue [204:25] economic impact over the next set of [204:27] time and be equal to or perhaps even in [204:31] Megabul case greater than the NFL in [204:34] terms of economic value and revenue [204:36] generated to be the number one or tied [204:38] as the number one sports league in the [204:40] world. And the reason I think this is [204:41] particularly interesting conversation [204:43] coming out of the valuation conversation [204:45] we just had is the number one thing that [204:48] matters in valuing any asset is what [204:50] assumptions you are making about its [204:52] future. And so you can't say that [204:53] something is expensive or inexpensive [204:56] unless you talk about what your inputs [204:58] are to guide that future. So the most [205:01] important input in the IPL team P&L [205:05] right now there's sort of three big [205:06] levers as I see it. One is, are the [205:10] meteorites deals going to keep growing [205:12] at the rate that they have been growing? [205:15] Which on the meteorites, our good friend [205:16] Arvin Navaratnam at Worldly Partners has [205:19] actually done the math to look into [205:21] this. And as always, we will link to his [205:23] excellent report in the show notes. [205:26] Since 2008 to 2023, the media rights [205:29] have grown at an 18% compound annual [205:32] growth rate from that hundred million a [205:35] year mark. Going with the hundred [205:36] million, not the 60 million. headline [205:38] $100 million year mark to the 1.2 [205:41] billion that we have today. Lit math. [205:44] Yes. And so then the question is will it [205:45] keep at that 18% growth rate? The second [205:49] big lever is is the BCCI permanently [205:52] going to be taking 50% of the revenue. [205:56] It seems like they will, but I think [205:58] it's worth examining what could cause [206:00] that to change. That's a big swing one [206:02] way or the other. And then the third one [206:04] is is there any natural force that will [206:07] cause the salary cap or the player cut [206:10] of revenue to grow as fast as the top [206:15] line? Or is it going to keep getting [206:17] smaller and smaller and smaller on a [206:18] percentage basis or even stay the same [206:21] if it was just sticking around at this [206:22] 12 13 14% of total team revenue? Yep. [206:27] From a team owner basis that's fine, [206:30] right? I think this is intrinsically [206:32] linked with the BCCI conversation [206:35] because it's almost like in the IPL, not [206:38] only do you not have a player union, [206:40] first of all, let's just say there's no [206:42] equivalent of the NFLPA, the MLBPA, [206:45] there's no players union to bargain. Do [206:48] you know that there actually is a [206:49] players union? Yes. Do you know what the [206:51] players union is? Yes. It was put into [206:53] place by the Supreme Court ruling and [206:54] the players union is only retired [206:56] players. Yes. It is the union of retired [206:58] players. It's the pensioners from the [207:01] PCCI. It's unbelievable. No current [207:04] players are allowed to be involved. [207:05] Amazing. So, not only is there no [207:07] ability to bargain and clearly it's in [207:09] no player's direct interest to walk away [207:11] cuz it's life-changing money, it's fame. [207:13] It's like your childhood dream. You're [207:15] going to play in the IPL. There's the [207:18] element that you can't go play outside [207:20] of India or else then you can't play on [207:22] the national team. So, that's a big [207:24] hammer or stick. But there's actually a [207:26] third and a fourth thing. Your income is [207:29] determined by the BCCI who determines [207:31] your income if you play for the national [207:34] team or other Indian leagues or [207:37] indirectly the IPL. Yep. Yeah. Cuz the [207:39] BCCI sets the salary cap or the auction [207:42] purse size, right? And then there's the [207:44] fourth thing which is Okay, cool. [207:46] There's these other leagues popping up. [207:48] There's South Africa, there's the US. [207:51] the IPL team owners are starting to own [207:56] or have partnerships with the other T20 [208:00] leagues that are popping up. And so it's [208:03] very easy for them to be like, uh, you [208:06] guys shouldn't allow players union and [208:08] we won't allow a players union. Okay, [208:09] great. You guys shouldn't pay higher [208:11] salaries, we also won't pay higher [208:12] salaries. Okay, great. And this sort of [208:14] happens at the international governing [208:16] body level anyway. the effective state [208:19] of play right now. They are all [208:21] effectively surfs to the BCCI and the [208:25] IPL, which is crazy. This whole thing is [208:29] effectively 50% owned by a quasi [208:32] governmental regulator. Amazing. So, I [208:35] just lay those things out there because [208:36] I think those are sort of the big levers [208:38] as you consider valuation of what's [208:40] going to change. Okay, I love it. That [208:41] is the right backdrop investor mindset [208:43] to think through evaluating these cases. [208:47] First bullcase is just simply media [208:50] rates expansion which is just simply [208:54] demographics. If nothing else happens [208:57] except that India and the Indian middle [209:00] class keeps growing like it has been and [209:03] is projected to both in absolute size of [209:07] the Indian middle class and relative [209:09] wealth of the Indian middle class [209:10] relative to other countries in the [209:12] world. That alone is probably the [209:14] biggest lever here. And to put some [209:16] numbers to that, remember we were [209:17] talking about the advertising market was [209:19] just $2 billion, I think. Was that 2007? [209:23] Yep. Somewhere around there that we were [209:26] talking about that. That is expected to [209:28] be $20 billion this year, growing 6 to [209:32] 7% per year. It's interesting. In 17 [209:35] years, it's 10xed from 2 billion to 20 [209:39] billion. Like you were pointing out all [209:40] the way at, you know, a couple hours [209:42] ago. The thing that matters for the [209:44] valuation of these teams and you keep [209:46] following it back for the revenue for [209:48] these teams is the media rights. And [209:50] what do the media rights need? They need [209:51] to be able to advertise to consumers. [209:53] What do you need for advertising to [209:54] consumers? You need consumers to be able [209:56] to buy things, have disposable income, [209:59] right? Make the cost of acquisition [210:01] actually make sense for the advertisers [210:03] on these media rights. And so far the [210:07] growth of the purchasing power of [210:09] consumers in India totally supports the [210:11] increased media rights purchases and [210:13] thus the valuations and if they keep [210:15] growing at 67% then it should continue [210:19] to support 6 to 7% growth in the media [210:23] rights per year. Does it support the 16% [210:26] growth that we had seen historically? [210:28] No. So the media rights packages [210:30] probably will grow slower and they [210:32] probably should grow at the rate of the [210:35] Indian advertising market at least in [210:37] your case that you're scoping this to [210:39] right now which is the Indian bullc [210:41] case. Yep. So if that current growth [210:44] rate in the domestic Indian ad market of [210:47] call it 67% per year sustains over the [210:51] next 20 years that I believe compounded [210:55] over 20 years is about a 10x growth. If [210:57] that happens with no slowdown, great. [211:00] There's 10x right there. So that gets [211:01] your media rights to 12 billion 20 years [211:05] from now to NFL size. And obviously [211:08] there'll be growth in the NFL, too. But [211:10] here's why I think demographics is [211:12] actually the single most important [211:14] thing. The NFL has basically already [211:18] saturated its TAM. The yes total [211:21] addressable market of people who care [211:24] about American football is at most 500 [211:28] million people. It is all of the US. It [211:32] is arguably Canada. You could throw that [211:35] in there. Although to a lesser degree, I [211:37] think, than the US. Yep. And then maybe [211:39] you find some pockets of other people [211:41] around the world, but there's not a lot. [211:43] You got to stretch to get to 500 [211:44] million. And this is the NFL's big [211:46] initiative. They are trying to figure [211:48] out how to make people outside the US [211:49] care. But I think that's right. And they [211:51] have been trying for a long time and [211:54] they have not thus far been succeeding [211:56] to any meaningful degree. Right. So they [211:58] would need to expand the number of [212:00] people who care or they would need to [212:02] expand the monetization potential per [212:05] person who watches. Sure. Like Americans [212:08] are getting wealthier, have gotten [212:09] wealthier every year for a long time. [212:12] Certainly the NFL will grow. I just [212:14] don't think it will grow that much. So I [212:17] think there's a plausible argument to [212:19] make on demographics alone that the [212:24] Indian ad market will support 10x IPL [212:27] media rights revenues which gets it into [212:29] the ballpark of the NFL today. Well, [212:31] let's put it another way. The US [212:33] advertising market total today is $450 [212:37] billion. We are already a absolute [212:39] behemoth. India over the time of the IPL [212:42] went from two to 20. There's a lot of [212:45] growth left, right? There's a lot of [212:47] room left to run. That is the case for [212:49] just how does it become NFL scale if it [212:52] just keeps matching the growth of the [212:54] advertising TAM in India. As I was [212:57] thinking about this before recording, I [212:59] was using more kind of population [213:01] numbers and there's estimates that the [213:02] middle class is supposed to double over [213:05] the coming 1020 years in India. The [213:08] middle class in India grew 6.3% [213:10] annualized between 1995 and 2021. So [213:13] that just matches every other stat that [213:16] we're talking about. GDP per capita is [213:18] growing 10% per year. So if GDP per [213:21] capita grows at 10% per year, do you [213:22] think advertising continues to grow at [213:24] 6.5%. Sure. I think advertising tends to [213:27] index GDP. Yep. Okay. Biggest lever [213:31] number one. I sort of haircut that in my [213:33] analysis to let's say it's 5x. I think [213:36] you then basically immediately double [213:38] that, multiply by another 2x and get to [213:41] 10x total simply by IPL expanding. I [213:44] think it is almost a foregone conclusion [213:47] no-brainer that the number of matches [213:51] that IPL plays will expand likely in [213:55] multiple ways. Number of teams and [213:57] lengthening of season. So number one is [214:00] simply just extending the season and [214:02] extending the window of the season with [214:04] the existing teams that they have [214:06] playing more matches over a longer [214:08] period of time. Right now this is only [214:10] 8week season. It's the shortest season [214:13] of any major sports league in the world [214:15] and there's reason for that of like they [214:17] had to work around the international [214:18] cricket calendar. The BCCI also controls [214:21] international cricket for India so they [214:23] care about this. But as IPL becomes [214:25] bigger and bigger and bigger and all of [214:28] the international players are playing in [214:29] the IPL, it's going to expand the window [214:32] here. Yep. So that's one. The main [214:34] window is going to expand. Two, team [214:37] expansion. India as a country [214:39] geographically and certainly [214:40] population-wise can support more than 10 [214:42] teams in this league. Nobrainer. At [214:45] least two more teams are going to get [214:46] added in the next x period of time here. [214:49] The real wild card here is there is talk [214:54] of a second IPL window, which would be [214:57] interesting. This is kind of a risk. So [214:59] like have the first part of the season [215:02] happen when it currently does between [215:04] March and May and then have the second [215:07] part of the season or maybe the playoffs [215:10] happen after the international calendar [215:12] over the summer and then come back at [215:14] the end of the year. Weird anticlimactic [215:16] almost. I don't know how you would [215:18] design the media product. I think this [215:20] is a wild card. It doesn't sound that [215:22] compelling to me, but I don't know. IPL [215:25] has designed incredibly compelling media [215:27] products. Maybe they could find a way to [215:29] make this really interesting. Yep. So, [215:31] that's a wild card. I don't think you [215:33] can bet on that, but I think you [215:34] definitely can bet on 2x expansion of [215:37] just simply inventory of games played, [215:40] which combine that with 5x expansion in [215:42] the ad market, boom, there's your 10x. [215:45] that's going to take you to like roughly [215:47] the same scale as the NFL. A supporting [215:51] point on this which I don't think grows [215:54] revenue necessarily but makes it more [215:56] likely to happen. As we've alluded to, [215:59] the IPL has basically become the [216:01] national champion of India. like the [216:03] Indian government is highly highly [216:05] highly incentivized to make this [216:09] continue to be a shining success story [216:12] for India and with Reliance so deeply [216:15] involved now I mean Reliance is the [216:17] largest telecom operator in the country [216:20] the largest or one of the largest [216:22] diversified companies period so they're [216:24] also an advertiser of their products [216:27] they own the biggest team you know [216:29] they're deeply involved in the league [216:31] like the Amanis Reliance are not going [216:33] to let this thing fail domestically and [216:35] internationally on streaming. Yep. [216:38] Exactly. So that now brings us into the [216:43] most [216:44] obvious revenue stream expansion [216:47] opportunity here which is the stadiums [216:50] to come back to that and local revenue. [216:52] Right. It's kind of a pittance. Yeah. I [216:55] think it would be an exaggeration to say [216:57] that the stadiums are crappy. They're [217:00] not crappy. You watch IPL games and [217:02] they're fine. They kind of look like [217:05] American sports stadiums from the 70s or [217:08] something like that. It's not Dirt [217:11] Fields, but it's also not Chase Center [217:13] or like the Vikings Stadium or any of [217:17] these new NFL stadiums that are just [217:18] gleaming multi-billion dollar palaces. [217:21] And there's good reason for that. Yeah, [217:23] they make 10x more revenue. And also [217:25] because the IPL is so short right now, [217:28] it doesn't even make that much sense if [217:30] you were to flip over to having teams [217:33] build and own their stadiums or be more [217:35] deeply involved. They just don't play [217:36] that many games. They only play seven [217:37] home games right now, right? But as you [217:39] expand the league, expand the number of [217:41] games, this starts to make more sense. [217:43] So, I think if you can find a way to [217:47] smartly without risking the economics of [217:50] the league upgrade the infrastructure [217:52] and the stadium infrastructure here, [217:54] like there is just so much lowhanging [217:56] fruit. I mean, all the playbook that is [217:58] run in the NFL, in the NBA, luxury [218:01] suites, seat licenses, fan experiences, [218:04] mixed use of the real estate, dining, [218:07] shopping, cinema, Bollywood, huge [218:10] opportunities. You sound like Jerry [218:12] Jones over there. Just basically send [218:14] Jerry Jones to India and take care of [218:16] this. So what's the opportunity there? [218:18] Like right now IPL teams are making 15% [218:22] of their revenue locally and 85% is [218:25] central revenue. If you could get to an [218:27] NFL type model where it's 40% local, [218:30] 354% local for the best teams, that's a [218:33] whole another significant amount of [218:35] revenue coming in there. Yeah. Hundreds [218:38] of millions for the league. I think if [218:39] you do that and you have the media rates [218:42] on par with the NFL, then you bring up [218:44] the rest of the revenue streams up to on [218:46] par. Now you're definitely on par with [218:47] the NFL. And this is still all domestic. [218:50] Totally all domestic. So that brings us [218:52] to I think one of the two biggest wild [218:56] cards here for the IPL and that's the [219:00] Saudis and Middle East money. They [219:04] absolutely want to get involved here. [219:07] Yeah. Yeah, there was a new story in [219:08] 2023, I think, about them trying to [219:11] invest in the IPL at like a $30 billion [219:15] valuation, which is 2x even the highest [219:17] number I've seen. The most recent IPL [219:20] super auction that just happened was [219:22] held in Saudi Arabia. Really, not just [219:25] is it they want this to happen, inroads [219:28] are being put in place that something [219:31] will probably happen here. Now, this [219:32] could go either way. It's sort of like a [219:34] carrot and a stick, a threat and an [219:36] opportunity. The threat is that you have [219:38] a live golf situation that they say, [219:41] "Well, they have basically unlimited [219:44] money. We can set up a competitive [219:45] league here." And you know, the ICL [219:47] tried this, but the ICL didn't have [219:50] Kingdom of Saudi Arabia money. Yes. It [219:52] would be very interesting to see, could [219:55] you actually just go completely around [219:57] the ICC, the BCCI, the existing [220:00] cricketing system and say, "Look, [220:02] there's so much money that we are [220:03] actually just going to get all the best [220:04] players in the world." Yep. I think that [220:07] is unlikely because of the hammer that [220:09] the BCCI has of hey you Indian players [220:13] if you do that we'll ban you from [220:14] international competition and they would [220:17] also not be able to play domestically in [220:20] India they would have to play in the [220:23] Middle East or South Africa or somewhere [220:24] else and so that would also hurt Indian [220:27] viewership I think it is unlikely but I [220:30] think it's more likely that the Saudis [220:32] or some other very large sovereign [220:34] wealth fund there's an agreement that [220:36] they can both come to that keeps [220:38] everyone happy. Uses this as negotiating [220:40] leverage. Exactly. Yeah. And I think [220:43] interests are really aligned here on my [220:46] prior point around infrastructure. I [220:49] think the Saudis want to get involved or [220:50] so wealth funds generally want to get [220:52] involved because they see this as a [220:54] great long-term growth investment. [220:57] also investing in this infrastructure [221:00] physical infrastructure in India is [221:02] probably a great long-term growth [221:03] investment that an investor like a [221:06] public investment fund of Saudi Arabia [221:08] is well set up to make those y [221:11] infrastructure investments. Y so if that [221:14] happens there's certainly plenty of [221:16] upside on every revenue stream that can [221:18] come from that. But I think at a minimum [221:20] that makes the local stadium real estate [221:24] revenue streams an almost certainty of [221:26] happening if the Saudis get involved. [221:28] It's interesting, right? Because what do [221:30] you do with that money? What do you do [221:32] with billions of dollars if it's thrust [221:34] upon just 10 teams? Totally. The Saudis [221:37] don't just want to invest in the league. [221:39] They want to invest in the whole [221:40] ecosystem. They want to invest in the [221:41] infrastructure projects. They want to [221:43] invest in the stadiums. They want to [221:44] invest in the buildings. They want to [221:45] invest in the retail going in around it. [221:47] Yep. All of that. [221:49] So coming into doing this and starting [221:51] the research, if you had told me that [221:54] bullcase, I would have said that's [221:56] insane. I know the IPL is big. I know [221:58] India is big. I know it's an exciting, [222:00] compelling product. But really, in 10 to [222:03] 20 years, this will be as big as the [222:05] NFL. But you go around and you talk to [222:07] people who are in the sports industry [222:09] and you put this question to them. And [222:11] you talked to some executives at teams. [222:13] You sanity checked this with people who [222:15] have thought about this. Yes. And the [222:17] response I got was, "No, that is not a [222:19] crazy statement. I could totally believe [222:21] that happening." Crazy things started 17 [222:23] years ago. And in theory, by the time it [222:25] is, call it 30 years old could be as big [222:28] as the NFL. Yep. It's riding this [222:31] incredible demographics wave, this [222:35] development of the middle class wave, [222:37] and this globalization of sport wave. [222:40] And I think also just the development of [222:41] India period, which plays into [222:43] demographics, too. But there's such a [222:45] infrastructure opportunity here too that [222:47] makes it really attractive to the Saudis [222:50] or whomever else, right? Tangible assets [222:52] where you could park billions and [222:53] billions of dollars. Yep. It may end up [222:56] being that actually lit sort of grand [222:59] plan of being asset light debtree no [223:03] stadiums in the beginning in the long [223:05] run was actually just a temporary thing. [223:07] Right. But you might have needed that to [223:09] get it started. Yeah. Okay. So this is [223:11] not your extreme bullcase. No, that's [223:13] not the extreme bold case. That's the [223:14] bull case. Next, we'll do the bear case. [223:16] Okay, so bare case, I think there [223:17] basically two big things in the bare [223:18] case. Number one is just challenges of [223:20] doing business in India period. I mean, [223:23] I think if you talk to anybody who [223:25] invests in India, this is the number one [223:27] challenge for everything, right? The low [223:28] trust environment. They have to change [223:30] that reputation and they have been. It [223:32] definitely has been changing. Definitely [223:33] has been getting better as you talk to [223:35] folks. Almost assuredly will continue to [223:38] do so. However, in order to support an [223:41] NFL size business, this needs to operate [223:43] in an NFL like environment. Yep. And [223:46] right now, I think we're basically [223:48] there. Institutional money is now coming [223:51] in, foreign direct investment is coming [223:53] into the IPL and is coming into India [223:55] large in a big way. So, like I think [223:57] we're there, but if there's any [223:58] backsliding, that's going to be a real [224:00] big problem. Yep. Okay. That's the [224:03] biggest one kind of writ large. And I [224:05] think the specific one to IPL, we [224:08] haven't talked about this yet. In [224:10] November [224:11] 2024, Viacom [224:14] 18/ [224:15] Reliance and Star Disney merged in an [224:20] $8.5 billion deal. Oh, I actually didn't [224:22] realize that. Really? Oh, yeah. Oh, so [224:24] they lost their competitive environment. [224:26] So basically we are now down to one [224:30] viable at scale bidder for all the [224:33] domestic media rights terrestrial and [224:37] streaming which who knows how that is [224:40] going to play out. Lot was a genius at [224:43] finding and engineering the creation of [224:45] alternative biders. On the other hand [224:48] this is now at such a big scale. Could [224:50] you really engineer a competitive bid? [224:53] next bidding cycle is going to be a [224:55] billion and a half to2 billion dollars [224:57] of media rights a year. Who else can do [224:59] that? Google and Facebook are extremely [225:01] credible bidders here. And in fact, [225:02] Google did at one point have a deal in [225:06] 2010. YouTube did a media rights deal [225:08] with the IPL. And in 2017, Facebook bid [225:11] on the digital rights and lost. Now, you [225:14] might say, well, is that for real? [225:16] Google and Facebook, you could say [225:17] they're credible biders for any media [225:19] rights anywhere in the world. True, but [225:21] they also particularly care about India. [225:24] India is YouTube's largest country by [225:27] user base. That's so crazy. Isn't that [225:29] wild? India's number one. US is number [225:32] two for YouTube. So yeah, Google cares a [225:35] lot. And then Facebook and Meta probably [225:38] care even more because India is I [225:42] believe the largest user base for [225:44] WhatsApp and also Instagram. India is [225:48] the largest populations of users on [225:51] Instagram. Interesting. So they both [225:54] care a lot and they have a lot of money. [225:56] I didn't know they emerged. Yeah. You do [225:57] not want your two legitimate competitive [226:00] biders to merge. Yep. Basically, I think [226:03] you have to get Google and Meta bidding. [226:06] Sometime in the next 5 years, a [226:08] competitive bidding environment will [226:10] emerge. That's the nice thing about [226:11] these deals being that long. Well, the [226:14] size of the prize is just so big that if [226:17] people thought the auction price might [226:19] drop low enough that you could, you [226:21] know, really make a guaranteed win here, [226:24] other biders would emerge, right? It's [226:26] funny, the bare case that I was thinking [226:28] of is sort of a valuationbased bear [226:30] case. Viacom 18 paid $3.1 [226:35] billion [226:36] for the digital rights. There's a lot of [226:41] sensitivity in that model to how fast [226:44] streaming grows and how fast streaming [226:46] monetization grows. The TV rights that [226:49] Star owns, fine, very predictable. But [226:52] it's not like you're buying equity in [226:56] something and if it happens in year 8 [226:57] instead of year six, that's fine. They [227:00] really need all this growth and [227:02] monetization to happen in years 2 3 4 5 [227:04] or else like if it happens 2 years later [227:07] than they thought, really bad news. and [227:09] they're underwater for that $3.2 [227:10] billion, which again, if they're the [227:12] only bidder in the next auction, means [227:14] that price is coming down, right? So, I [227:16] mean, all of the revenue and all the [227:17] valuation is really based on these media [227:20] rights. And these media rights, at least [227:23] as paid in this last auction, are really [227:25] sensitive to that future happening real [227:27] fast. [227:30] So, that brings me to the mega bull [227:35] case. Here's the mega bull case. [227:38] This thing goes global beyond the [227:41] traditional cricket playing countries [227:44] and the US, maybe China, other countries [227:48] around the world who historically have [227:50] not cared about cricket get really into [227:52] the IPL. There's some interesting stuff [227:54] to talk about here. So, how likely do [227:57] you think it is that people in America [227:59] actually start tuning into the IPL? Cuz [228:01] India's 12, 13 hours off. It's really [228:04] hard. Yeah, this is the biggest [228:06] challenge in England. It's actually [228:08] great. It's only 5 hours off. So, [228:11] there's this nice like you could do it [228:13] as sort of a dayight game on the [228:15] weekend. The US, you're like tuning in [228:17] at 8:00 in the morning. If you want to [228:18] watch something that's happening in [228:20] India, 8:00 p.m. in India is, I believe, [228:23] 7:30 a.m. on the West Coast of the [228:25] United States. That is the single [228:27] biggest challenge. So, this is the [228:30] argument for a domestic cricket market. [228:32] Major League Cricket. For listeners out [228:34] there, I spent a good amount of time [228:36] with Soma Soma Seagar, who is the former [228:39] Microsoft exec now at Madrona, who is a [228:42] co-owner with Sati Nadella of the [228:44] Seattle Major League Cricket team. is [228:46] very interesting getting his perspective [228:48] on developing Major League Cricket in [228:51] the US because I think the whole bet [228:53] with Major League Cricket is we got to [228:55] build cricket fandom domestically in a [228:59] grassroots way with players here slowly [229:03] over time. This is not going to be this [229:06] big explosion out of the shoot and [229:08] frankly Americans are just not going to [229:10] start caring about IPL cricket. They [229:12] need to start caring about US-based [229:14] cricket. Yeah. Okay. Whole bunch to talk [229:18] about here. So, the biggest swing on [229:21] this is going to be a single event that [229:24] is going to happen in 2028. Oh, the [229:26] Olympics. Which is the Los Angeles [229:29] Olympics, which T20 cricket is going to [229:32] be in the LA Olympics. First time since [229:36] 1900 that cricket is in the Olympics. [229:38] Yeah. First time in a 100 plus years [229:40] that cricket is back in the Olympics. [229:42] Essentially, it is cricket for the first [229:44] time in the modern Olympics here in LA, [229:47] in America in a big way. And a lot of [229:51] vested interests are going to be riding [229:53] on this Olympics here. Yep. So, time [229:57] zones are definitely the biggest [229:58] challenge here. But if you put that [230:00] aside, cricket is actually, I think, [230:04] totally poised to take off in the US for [230:06] a couple reasons. One, most importantly, [230:09] baseball is stagnating. We've alluded to [230:11] it a little bit on this episode, but [230:13] Major League Baseball has serious [230:15] problems. Hey man, pitch clock. It [230:17] really changed the game experience. I [230:19] actually think managing Major League [230:22] Baseball is really challenging right [230:23] now. And they're arguably doing a pretty [230:26] good job of maintaining value capture [230:29] over the long run while there's just [230:32] like a whole bunch of factors fighting [230:33] against them. You just think it's like [230:35] an inevitable decline and they're doing [230:36] a nice job managing the pace of that [230:39] decline. The issue is that because teams [230:42] can have their own media deals locked [230:44] into long-term contracts and then [230:46] because there's no effective salary cap [230:49] competitive parody, every wealthy team [230:52] is going to be wholly and intrigently [230:55] against any major structural change to [230:56] the sport. Yeah. And the structural [230:59] changes that need to happen are at [231:01] multiple levels. There's the way the [231:05] business is organized. There's the [231:07] product itself. They've done a good job [231:09] with the pitch clock. I think that's [231:10] actually good. But like the biggest [231:11] problem is 162 games. Baseball was built [231:14] for an era when the revenue model of [231:15] sports was the tickets at the gate. It [231:18] was not built for the TV era and [231:20] certainly not built for this era. And [231:22] they've done also a really nice job with [231:25] MLB.tv and their owned and operated [231:27] streaming product. Bamch is a huge [231:30] success for MLB, but again, you're [231:32] basically just extending out the current [231:34] state of play as long as possible. [231:37] interest in the game and particularly [231:38] interest in the game among young people [231:40] is we're entering a scenario that could [231:44] end up looking like cricket in England [231:45] before it got so bad that they had to [231:48] introduce T20. Oh, that's interesting. [231:50] So then at the same time, Cricket has [231:51] already gone through this cycle and come [231:53] out the other end with T20 in the IPL. [231:55] So they have the right product and the [231:57] right business model coming out the end [231:58] of it. That's one. two, there is a [232:03] pretty significant Indian diaspora [232:05] population here in America. I mean, it's [232:08] not huge huge in terms of all of [232:10] America, but it's several million [232:11] people. And actually, right now, like [232:14] Indian-Americans are kind of at their [232:17] pinnacle in terms of influence on the [232:20] country. So, you've got CEOs like you [232:22] mentioned, Satia Nadella, Sundar Pachai, [232:24] Shantenew at Adobe. Yep. Just percentage [232:28] of market cap in America. Neil Mohan at [232:31] YouTube. Absolutely. Like [232:33] Indian-American CEOs control a ton of it [232:35] and as we've talked about in every [232:37] episode on this show basically the [232:39] influence of tech on culture is becoming [232:43] hugely outside. So okay that's one is [232:45] the business community and the influence [232:46] there. Two is actually entertainment in [232:48] Hollywood. You actually have [232:49] Indian-Americans who are becoming stars [232:52] and a list stars in Hollywood. Bigger [232:54] though three is politics. I mean just [232:57] look at this last election cycle. Well, [232:58] you got Kla Harris. You've got JD [233:00] Vance's wife, Usha, who's second lady of [233:02] the US now. Nikki Haley, she's [233:05] Indian-American. There actually are [233:07] quite a lot of Indian-American [233:08] politicians now. So, anyway, all that to [233:11] say, relative to their size as a [233:14] minority within America, [233:15] Indian-Americans have quite a lot of [233:18] influence on the country. Is the [233:20] Indian-American diaspora really that [233:22] small? Yep. It's about 5 million people. [233:24] Wow. I would have expected it to be [233:25] bigger. And you said there's 20 million [233:27] cricket fans in the US currently. Yep. [233:31] Huh. Interesting. So that's two. Point [233:34] three is just that like the IPL is [233:36] actually genuinely a really compelling [233:38] product. Right. This feels like the [233:40] biggest reason to me. If it's super [233:42] entertaining and it's well engineered to [233:44] be entertaining, it will continue to [233:46] spread. Yep. So time zones definitely [233:49] the biggest challenge. Could you imagine [233:51] a future, especially if Sovereign Wealth [233:54] Money gets involved in the IPL where [233:57] they borrow the NFL playbook and they [233:59] start staging matches here in the US? [234:03] Absolutely. That's like number one [234:05] biggest mega bowl case is Americans [234:09] actually start to care about cricket and [234:11] not just Americans but other markets [234:13] around the world outside traditional [234:14] cricket playing nations. Related to [234:16] that, number two is IP. It is the great [234:20] irony as you talk about the sort of [234:23] Indian expansion of influence around the [234:26] world that it was British imperialism [234:29] that brought cricket to India but it may [234:31] be cricket that expands India's [234:33] influence on the world. [234:35] Totally cricket imperialism I guess. [234:37] Yeah, Indian imperialism which is sort [234:40] of happening with the leagues that [234:42] they're setting up around the world. [234:44] Totally. I think four of the six major [234:47] league cricket teams in the US have IPL [234:50] ownership. I think all of the South [234:52] African teams have IPL team affiliation [234:55] or ownership. It kind of feels like the [234:57] Big Bash League in Australia is the only [234:59] T20 league around the world that doesn't [235:02] have any sort of ties to the IPL. Yeah. [235:04] And I think that's just simply because [235:06] it was set up around the same time or [235:08] maybe even slightly earlier than the [235:09] IPL. But yeah, I think that's the other [235:11] path that IPL could come to the US. Like [235:14] one is the NFL playbook of you adjust [235:17] match times, you stage some matches [235:18] here, you try and drum up interest in [235:20] the main teams in India. The other path [235:22] and maybe you marry this with the second [235:24] window idea is because the season's [235:27] short, you keep the season short in [235:28] India and then you have the same players [235:30] with effectively the same organizations [235:33] come over here in the fall or at a [235:35] different time of the year and stage [235:37] another tournament here with US-based [235:39] city teams or wild card you do an [235:42] American League National League thing [235:43] and then you have the American teams and [235:46] the Indian teams play each other in the [235:47] playoffs. Yeah. And maybe this all ends [235:50] up coming together through the Olympics [235:51] and the World Cup and all that and it's [235:53] a more grassroots overtime development. [235:56] The ground is fertile for cricket in [235:58] America right now, especially because [236:00] baseball is declining. Totally. There's [236:02] a vacuum. Yep. Okay. So then the next [236:05] kind of big megable thing is IP. And IP [236:10] basically boils down to two things with [236:13] one kind of in the middle. There's [236:16] non-game media and streaming. So, this [236:19] is F1 Drive to Survive or Full Swing [236:22] Golf, you know, stuff like that. [236:23] Documentaries, professionally produced [236:25] and social media around the league. So, [236:28] there actually was a Netflix cricket [236:31] documentary that came out in 2019 called [236:34] Cricut Fever. Yeah, you mentioned it. I [236:36] couldn't find it. I watched it back in [236:37] 2019. It's not on Netflix anymore, which [236:39] sucks. It's super compelling. So this [236:42] documentary, Cricut Fever, was part of [236:44] what turned me on to IPL itself being a [236:47] big thing. I'd always sort of been [236:49] interested in cricket because of my [236:50] British DNA, but I didn't know IPL was [236:53] so big until I watched this [236:55] documentary. For some reason, it's not [236:58] on Netflix right now. Actually, I think [236:59] I know the reason, which is it's [237:01] basically flawed. The problem with the [237:03] existing documentary Cricket Fever is it [237:05] only follows the Mumbai Indians. It [237:07] doesn't follow the whole league. H but I [237:10] think if you were to and I'm sure people [237:12] are in development on this if you were [237:15] to produce a drive to survive full [237:18] league narrative full production value [237:20] Netflix ongoing annual season special [237:24] about the IPL it would crush globally [237:27] like absolutely crush the whole league [237:30] is architected as a soap opera and then [237:32] you make a soap opera about the soap [237:33] opera like it's going to be so good yeah [237:36] to validate this point I used to think [237:38] Bollywood stars were the biggest stars [237:40] in India. Shah Ruk Khan has 48 million [237:46] Instagram followers. Oh, that's a [237:48] pittance. Verat Kohli, the top cricketer [237:50] in the world, has [237:52] 270 million and he's approximately tied [237:56] with Taylor Swift. Yeah, I mean the [237:58] cricketers are the stars in India. And [238:01] actually, it's kind of weird. If you [238:02] scroll through Verat Kohi's Instagram, [238:05] all 33 of the last 33 posts are [238:10] sponsored. It's him with a product. I [238:13] can't figure out if it's just the Indian [238:14] tolerance for commercial placement is [238:17] much higher than the American audience's [238:19] tolerance for it or if Verat just lost [238:22] the personal creds himself and his [238:23] business manager is the only one posting [238:25] the account or what the deal is. But [238:27] you've got a 270 million follower [238:30] account only posting paid posts. Wow, [238:33] that's wild. I mean, that just speaks to [238:35] the demand to follow him. Yeah, his [238:38] influence is insane. Interestingly, [238:40] during the season, the way the IPL [238:42] rights work, the teams actually owns the [238:44] IP of the players during the season and [238:47] can monetize them. You'll get multiple [238:50] commercials in a row with star players [238:52] on that team during the match. That's [238:55] amazing. Anyway, that's one side of the [238:58] IP and then then the other side is [238:59] gambling. So again, mega mega mega bull [239:02] case. Gambling becomes legal in India [239:04] like game over. You know, if there's [239:07] $750 million, there already is a good [239:10] amount of fantasy. Now it's technically [239:12] a game of skill, but there is the [239:14] equivalent of DraftKings for the IPL in [239:17] India. It's a company called Dream 11. [239:19] There are 11 players on a side in [239:21] cricket. So it's Dream 11 and it [239:23] operates just like DraftKings, but it is [239:26] classified by the government as a game [239:28] of skill, not a game of luck. So that's [239:29] how they get away with it. Dream 11 has [239:32] 200 million users and is valued at $8 [239:35] billion. And Redbird, the big sports [239:38] private equity firm in New York that's [239:39] an investor in the Restan Royals. [239:41] They're also a big investor in Dream 11. [239:42] Interesting. That said, it's still kind [239:45] of in this gray area right now. I don't [239:49] know what the likelihood of this is, but [239:51] if true gambling were to become legal in [239:53] India, given that $750 million of [239:56] betting is already happening on foreign [239:59] bookmaking markets per match, that's a [240:03] huge revenue unlock there. Yeah. So, all [240:06] that to say, I don't know how likely is [240:09] either the US getting interested or [240:11] other non- cricket playing countries [240:12] around the world getting interested and [240:15] or IP and gambling. I could totally see [240:19] some of that happening. We may have some [240:21] hand in this. You know, the week after [240:22] this episode comes out is the start of [240:25] IPL season. We'll have to see if all of [240:27] our US listeners are cricket curious. [240:29] It's like we timed this. [240:32] All right. Should we do uh power [240:34] playbook and then our quintessence? Yes, [240:37] let's do it. So power is a section that [240:40] we always do that takes Hamilton [240:42] Helmer's framework of what enables a [240:44] business to achieve persistent [240:46] differential returns on a sustainable [240:48] basis and we kind of apply it to the [240:50] business we're studying. To apply this [240:52] to the IPL the question is who are the [240:54] IPL's competitors? And I think because [240:57] they are so NF1 at this point you kind [240:59] of have to think about it as their [241:01] potential competitors or potential [241:03] competitors in the past that they have [241:05] since vanquished. The biggest one, the [241:08] reason that the IPL gets to be so much [241:11] more profitable than any other league in [241:13] the world or potential league is clearly [241:16] a cornered resource and it's the [241:17] players. Yeah, 100%. That's the big one. [241:21] And so David, the question I have for [241:23] you is why does the IPL have a cornered [241:26] resource on players? Because while there [241:29] are a lot of good Indian cricket [241:31] players, all the best cricket players in [241:34] the world are not Indian. And [241:35] conversely, it's not like the only [241:38] people who watch cricket are in India. I [241:40] think like 35% of the people who watch [241:43] cricket in the world live in India. [241:45] Yeah. Cricket is actually the second [241:46] biggest sport in the world with two and [241:48] a half billion fans behind soccer. [241:50] Right. So there's a lot of fans [241:51] elsewhere. So plausibly could have set [241:54] up a league elsewhere. Yeah. Totally [241:56] great question. I think the issue is [241:57] just that India is such by far the [242:00] center of gravity. By which I mean, you [242:02] know, the other billion cricket fans in [242:05] the world are too dispersed among other [242:08] countries. So like if you're gonna set [242:09] up a rival league, you got to set it up [242:12] somewhere. So where are you going to [242:13] choose? You going to do Australia? You [242:16] going to do Pakistan? Are you going to [242:18] do the UK? Are you going to do the West [242:20] Indies? And there are rival leagues in [242:22] all of those countries. But the [242:24] percentage of mind share that you're [242:26] going to be able to get of the global [242:29] cricket audience caring about your [242:31] league and the cornered resource that [242:33] you would then have of your domestic [242:35] cricket board of those players in that [242:37] league. You're not going to be able to [242:38] restrict enough talent density of [242:40] players relative to a fan base in any [242:43] other single country in the world. So, [242:44] it's almost a tipping point thing where [242:46] whoever was the biggest, even if they [242:48] weren't the biggest by a lot, was able [242:50] to basically have a pretty large group [242:54] of people who cared the most about their [242:56] domestic players and therefore start [242:58] this flywheel of we are able to attract [243:02] people from other areas to come and play [243:05] here. And if you get someone from like [243:06] the West Indies, you get all the small [243:08] countries. Then suddenly you build from [243:09] like 35% to maybe 45 or 50% and then [243:12] these blocks of 10 and 15% are kind of [243:15] dominoes that fall into you cuz now [243:17] you've as the biggest player aggregated [243:19] all the small ones and now you start the [243:22] flywheel and you can add in additional [243:24] constraints on top like Indian players [243:26] aren't allowed to play elsewhere. Well, [243:28] okay, that just kind of creates lock in. [243:30] Totally. That's the biggest thing. And [243:32] then you build the IP around those [243:34] teams, the viewership, the media rights, [243:36] and it becomes really hard to dislodge [243:38] it. The West Indies cricket board could [243:40] say, "Chris Gale, you can't play in the [243:43] IPL." And at one point in time, they did [243:46] try to say that. Huh. But they don't [243:48] have enough leverage. It doesn't matter, [243:49] right? The Indian market would say like, [243:51] "Okay, fine. We don't need Chris Kelly. [243:53] We'll still watch without him." And then [243:55] because they had so much leverage and [243:56] there was so much money, I think if I [243:58] remember right, when discussions were [244:00] being bandied about about this [244:01] happening, Chris was like, I'm just [244:03] going to go play in the IPL and no [244:04] longer play international cricket for [244:06] the West Indies. Like, what are you [244:08] going to pay me that's going to come [244:09] close to this? So, this is the argument [244:11] for a potential live golf. Yes. Type [244:14] situation is that everyone would react [244:15] in that way if the prize was big enough. [244:17] What's the phrase? If you're going to [244:18] go, go so big you never have to go [244:20] again. You better get enough cash in [244:22] just a few years of playing in some new [244:24] league that it doesn't matter if you [244:25] ever need to do anything else again. [244:27] Yes, exactly. But to your point, [244:29] counterpositioning, initially in the [244:31] takeoff phase, T20 had [244:32] counterpositioning versus ODI. Yeah, but [244:35] that wasn't an IPL or a BCCI innovation. [244:38] They just borrowed it. Right. In a way, [244:40] the media rights deal is a scale [244:42] economies thing. Oh, yeah. Production [244:44] value. And then if and when they do get [244:46] into local revenue streams and stadiums [244:48] that absolutely becomes scale economies. [244:51] But the production value associated with [244:53] the broadcast of IPL are now you know [244:56] again are they like quite at NFL Monday [244:59] Night Football levels yet? Maybe. I [245:02] don't know. They're pretty close. Like [245:03] you're not going to do that anywhere [245:04] else. Yep. So one question I have for [245:06] you that I was thinking of after Power [245:08] is a good time to do this. Why can't [245:10] other leagues make big money like this [245:12] during the other 10 months of the year? [245:14] The world's not paying attention to IPL. [245:16] You would think you could get all the [245:17] best players in the world to go play in [245:19] matches that you could sell the meteor [245:20] rights for for a lot of money, right? [245:23] That's a good question. I mean, [245:24] international cricket and test cricket [245:26] is still a thing and the Indian national [245:28] team playing is still a big deal. But [245:30] not $1.2 billion dollar of media rights [245:33] per year big, right? Exactly. I think [245:36] it's kind of the same reason as the [245:37] cornered resource and the players of if [245:40] a rival true rival league in another [245:43] country were to try to do this, you just [245:45] can't attract the critical mass of [245:48] advertising dollars to make it worth it [245:50] given that so much of the market is in [245:52] India. That said, I do think this is a [245:54] version of the mega bowl opportunity of [245:56] like the IPL either itself directly or [245:59] through its surrogate leagues that it [246:01] has investment in like major league [246:03] cricket or the 100 in England. They say, [246:06] "Yeah, we're going to do this and we're [246:08] going to send our players." As leading [246:10] the witness here, you brought up the [246:11] 100. For listeners who've never heard of [246:13] it, which is probably most listeners, [246:15] there is a new fourth version of cricket [246:18] after T20 that instead of 120 balls, [246:20] it's just a hundred balls bowled per [246:22] game. There's an English league called [246:24] the hundred and they have managed to [246:26] attract some super superstar investors [246:29] and raised I think a billion dollars or [246:32] close to it. Yep. At obviously a [246:35] valuation significantly larger than that [246:37] for these teams in the hundred. The 100 [246:39] is a 4-year-old cricket league based in [246:43] England. Now, you have a lot of reason [246:44] to believe because sort of a native [246:46] sport there that it can be successful [246:47] and there should be some [246:48] crosspollination with India because [246:50] they're only 5 hours apart. So, there's [246:51] time zone stuff that could work. But I [246:53] think the 100 will be the first [246:55] challenge to can you create something [246:58] IPL like in another country during [247:00] another time slot. Yep. except it's not [247:03] really a challenge because a whole bunch [247:05] of the IPL franchises are invested in [247:09] hundred franchises. So, it's sort of [247:11] like half a challenge, half a further [247:14] exploration of does IPL use the other [247:16] leagues to effectively build their own [247:18] other windows. Hm. We'll have to see. [247:21] Okay. So, Playbook, you texted me an [247:23] interesting question saying for [247:23] Playbook, why don't we just ask the [247:25] question, could the MLB or NBA be [247:27] disrupted like this? Did you have a [247:30] thought on that? When I texted you the [247:32] question, I obviously was leading the [247:35] witness and would have said absolutely [247:37] 100%. I now think it's a little more [247:41] gray. And when you said like this, did [247:43] you mean what the IPL did to traditional [247:47] cricket? Yes. The combination of T20 of [247:49] a new format of the game and a new [247:52] league that is run with a different [247:54] business model. Right. So, could someone [247:56] do that to baseball? And I think [247:58] reflecting on your comment earlier, you [248:00] think baseball may not be in bad enough [248:02] shape in order to warrant this yet. [248:04] Well, now after totally uncovering the [248:06] IPL story, I think there were enough [248:10] unique end of one dynamics about [248:13] cricket, the [248:14] BCCI, T20 coming in and just sort of the [248:18] state of the primordial soup when IPL [248:21] was formed that do make it difficult to [248:24] replicate directly. probably the biggest [248:27] of which being the [248:29] BCCI's overarching control of the sport [248:32] within India and the court of resource [248:33] of the players and being able to ban [248:35] them from playing in other leagues. That [248:37] obviously doesn't exist in the US. I [248:40] think what is a total analogy is MLB and [248:46] there's some potential risk of early [248:50] signs of the NBA too [248:53] are going in a direction that [248:57] long-term will not be good. I don't know [248:59] why I would watch one of the first three [249:01] periods of an NBA game or the first [249:03] three quarters of the season or the [249:05] first 95% of the season. I grew up a [249:08] Cavs fan. They're the best team in the [249:10] league and I haven't watched a game yet. [249:11] There's a huge problem there. Huge, huge [249:14] problem in the NBA. Now, the NBA is in a [249:17] better position than MLB because they [249:20] have a soft salary cap. So, not as good [249:22] as the NFL, but better than no salary [249:24] cap in the MLB. And they have now moved [249:27] to mostly a centralized revenue sharing [249:30] media rights deal. Yeah. And so, next [249:32] they need to shrink the number of games. [249:34] And then they need to make sure the [249:37] stars are playing whenever anybody's [249:39] going to watch a game. And they got to [249:41] make every game count. And they got to [249:42] make every quarter count. And then it'll [249:43] be a great sport. Problem is those are [249:45] hard things to do because it's in direct [249:47] opposition to the media rights. Every [249:50] minute less of basketball that is played [249:52] is many dollars lost. Yep. So, you know, [249:55] armchair uh quarterback, armchair GM [249:58] right now. You know, I think I would [249:59] diagnose the NBA as fine and in some [250:02] sense doing better than ever, but some [250:05] early red flags that in the long run if [250:08] they don't manage the game well, worst [250:09] case, they have 30 more years of [250:11] success. It's not an immediate problem. [250:13] It's a problem for two commissioners [250:14] from now. Yep. MLB, I don't know that [250:18] it's a this commissioner problem, but [250:20] like they're farther along the decline [250:22] curve. Yep. the rubber is going to hit [250:25] the road for MLB once enough [250:28] generational shift happens that there's [250:31] just no longer enough supply of players [250:33] and fans. But all that said, there is [250:36] one thing really, really going for MLB, [250:38] which is international. Baseball is an [250:41] international game, and it would be [250:44] devastating to the sport if American [250:46] interest continues to decline both in [250:48] terms of players and fans. But it's [250:51] still very very strong and vibrant in [250:54] Japan, in South Korea. Yeah. But that [250:56] doesn't help the MLB. Well, it helps [250:57] them on the player front. And it does [250:59] help them on the audience front, too. I [251:01] mean, man, show is a very valuable [251:04] commodity both in terms of playing on [251:06] the field and the market that he [251:08] generates in Japan. Yep. Anyway, all [251:11] that to say, baseball is the obvious, [251:14] and I think you have the first example [251:16] with the Savannah Bananas. I don't think [251:18] the Savannah Bananas are going to become [251:20] the IPL per se. We got to do an ACQ2 on [251:23] Savannah Bananas. Oh, we gota. So, for [251:26] folks who don't know, we alluded to it [251:27] earlier, but it is a totally zany, [251:31] incredibly fun, like everything that is [251:34] sort of a problem for baseball, the [251:36] Savannah Bananas have fixed, except that [251:38] it is not an actual sport, right? It's a [251:40] pure entertainment product right now. [251:42] Yep. But the fact that it exists at all [251:44] should be very alarming to MLB. Yep. [251:47] Agree. Okay. I've got three playbook [251:51] themes in addition to everything we [251:53] already covered on the history. One, [251:55] assets can get more valuable with the [251:57] right owners. Shah Ru Khan deciding to [252:00] own that team made it much more [252:02] valuable. This is almost obvious like we [252:05] started the show and it was called [252:06] acquired and we talked about when you [252:08] could buy something and the right buyer [252:10] would make it more valuable. But think [252:11] about if passive money had bought the [252:14] Kolkata Nightriders versus Shah Rukh [252:16] Khan buying it. It's existential. I know [252:19] that sure he was made whole right away [252:21] through the deals, the $5 million we [252:23] talked about earlier, but he was in the [252:26] black on brand value for that thing as [252:28] soon as he bought it because his [252:29] association is worth so many millions of [252:32] dollars. and him putting his face on it [252:34] and doing the Anthem video and all that [252:37] great stuff. It's just a smack you in [252:39] the face reminder of assets need to find [252:43] the right owner to maximize their value [252:45] and sometimes it's just a gigantic [252:48] multiplier versus passive dollars. Yep. [252:51] My second one is from Arvin at Worldly [252:54] Partners. Sports teams are an amazing [252:56] asset to own. In the write up that he [252:58] did that I read to prep for this [252:59] episode, he highlighted that the big [253:01] four sports leagues in the US, the MLB, [253:04] NFL, NBA, and NHL, have outperformed the [253:07] stock market meaningfully. And over a [253:09] period of 1961 to 2024, it's 13% [253:14] annualized versus 10% annualized. And I [253:17] know it doesn't sound like a lot when I [253:18] build it that way, but that's a long [253:20] time period. But the stock market has [253:23] 550xed during that period while an index [253:26] of sports teams is a [253:29] 2300x. That's massive. And on top of [253:32] that, the stock market has these big [253:33] draw downs. That doesn't really happen [253:36] in an index of sports teams. They've [253:38] also historically been very uncorrelated [253:40] with the stock market. So these are very [253:42] scarce assets that sure are nice to own [253:45] if you can get one. I was thinking a lot [253:47] about it like should everyone have been [253:49] an automatic yes in the 2008 auction? [253:53] Probably. I mean I think everybody who [253:55] is invited to bid was. Yes. There are [253:58] these examples of failed sports leagues. [254:00] The USFL, the XFL, the Overwatch League. [254:05] So you're not guaranteed that you're [254:07] getting into one of these great leagues. [254:08] But man, once they start to become the [254:11] dominant league for a sport that people [254:13] really care about, it's one of the best [254:15] assets you could own durably. Totally. [254:17] This is another bullc case at least [254:19] valuationwise on IPL franchises that [254:22] someone made to me in the research. [254:24] India far punches above its weight [254:28] relative to its GDP when it comes to [254:30] billionaires. There are a lot of [254:32] billionaires in India. So there are a [254:34] lot of potential buyers of sports [254:36] franchises in India and there are only [254:38] 10 viable major sports franchises the 10 [254:41] IPL teams and let's say they expand to [254:44] 12 or 14 or 16 you know whatever there's [254:46] going to be more demand for those assets [254:48] relative to the supply. Yeah, [254:51] absolutely. My last one is probably the [254:54] important question of the episode. You [254:57] couldn't have the IPL without Lit Modi [255:01] period. So, how path dependent was this? [255:06] Could you have something of this scale [255:08] and [255:09] success without taking the good with the [255:12] bad of everything Lai accomplished? No [255:16] way. You needed London. But did you need [255:19] every business practice? Would it have [255:21] been possible for him to create [255:23] something so valuable and to align so [255:26] many interests without having allegedly [255:30] had stakes in three teams. Capitalism is [255:33] great because when you have an incentive [255:35] to succeed, you succeed. And if [255:38] everybody is pushed to succeed, you [255:40] create value in the world. There's kind [255:42] of this question of if he was hired into [255:45] a regulatory bureaucratic [255:48] organization, could you have created [255:50] something so valuable without dealing [255:53] some cards to yourself? I don't think [255:55] so. The only example I can think of from [255:57] our sort of acquired cannon here is Visa [256:00] and Dehawk of a founder of something of [256:04] this [256:05] magnitude that did it without really [256:09] realizing any equity for himself. I [256:12] mean, I guess Morris Chang and TSMC too, [256:14] although Morris overtime did get quite a [256:17] significant stake in TSMC through equity [256:20] grants and D I think got paid quite a [256:22] bit at Visa too. So, it's not to say [256:24] like it couldn't happen, but I think [256:26] it's pretty rare. And that BCCI [256:28] structure was really a blocker for the [256:31] incentives here. So, it's like you [256:33] almost needed a lit to come along and be [256:36] like, do this on behalf of the BCCI [256:39] while wetting my beak, so to speak, on [256:42] the side, too. Right. Yeah. They're a [256:43] partner with me in creating this. Yeah. [256:46] You really do need these crazy dehawk [256:49] type above reproach people to walk into [256:53] a low trust environment, a low trust [256:55] ecosystem and need to do these deals to [256:58] create something from nothing without [257:01] crossing any lines and it's a rare bird. [257:05] Yep. All right, let's land a plane. I [257:09] have two points to my contestants. One [257:11] is Ed Cowan put it best. If you were to [257:14] design a sports league to maximize the [257:16] bottom line, this is how you would do [257:19] it. My second one is this is the product [257:23] and I mean that in a mathematical sense. [257:25] Multiply these things together. The [257:28] Indian middle class emergence, TV [257:31] penetration and smartphone explosion. [257:33] The TV penetration went from 40% to 74% [257:37] during the IPL's run. Internet usage [257:39] went from under 5% to over 60% today. [257:43] the population, the literal number of [257:45] people increased by 230 million. That is [257:48] the adult population of the US stacked [257:51] onto the existing population since the [257:54] IPL was created. Is just this perfect [257:57] storm of tailwinds for this to exist. [258:00] Yeah, 100%. All right, I've got a [258:04] quintessence for IPL and then I have [258:07] two related broader takeaways associated [258:11] with it. My quintessence for the IPL is [258:15] that they, and by they I mean [258:18] specifically Lit Modi and [258:22] IMG, designed the thus far most perfect [258:28] sports entertainment product that [258:30] mankind has ever known. Previous to the [258:33] IPL, that was the NFL, but they actually [258:37] managed to improve the sports [258:40] entertainment product. If you are [258:42] designing a sports entertainment product [258:44] for the modern media landscape, the NFL, [258:50] because of its history, it actually [258:52] started in the previous pre-television [258:54] world and certainly pre-streaming world. [258:57] It's kind of an accident that the NFL [258:59] was able to massage the product enough [259:01] and Pete Rosel made enough great [259:02] decisions to make it so compelling as it [259:05] is now, but it's only 75% of the way [259:09] there. The IPL though from whole cloth [259:12] was designed as a major league in the [259:17] post television and anticipating [259:19] streaming and social media world. And so [259:21] this architecting of the one game every [259:24] night, every match matters. I mean, it's [259:26] Monday Night Football every single night [259:29] for two whole months. And then [259:31] explicitly bringing in the Bollywood, [259:34] the Taylor Swift element. Like we've [259:35] seen what Taylor Swift did for the NFL [259:37] accidentally on a one-off basis, right? [259:40] And this was architected from day one. [259:43] The fact that viewership of the IPL is [259:47] truly 50/50 gender equal. Yeah. There's [259:50] no other men's sports league like that [259:52] in the entire world. It is astonishing [259:55] that they managed to make something that [259:58] for your argument, it's the perfect [260:00] entertainment product that is not [260:02] physical like the NFL is. I always [260:04] assumed the brutality was actually part [260:08] required to be that entertaining. No. [260:10] And in fact, thinking about it through [260:12] this lens, it totally holds the NFL [260:14] back. Whereas the IPL league was [260:16] architected from day one of we need to [260:18] sell shampoos and beauty products here. [260:20] Right. And the brutality definitely [260:21] holds the NFL back from its future. It's [260:23] so core to the sport, but also a [260:26] hindrance to it. Totally. You [260:28] concussions, etc. Okay. So, that is my [260:31] quintessence on the IPL. And then my two [260:32] takeaways are this is an amazing case [260:35] study of sports truly are we talked [260:39] about this in the NFL episode the most [260:41] important media property in the world [260:44] today because they are the only property [260:47] left where there is true uncertainty and [260:50] this true appointment live viewing has [260:53] to happen. There's nothing else left. [260:56] Yeah, it's that and award shows the [260:58] Oscars. You don't know who's going to [261:00] win. Yeah, the Oscars. Sure. But that's [261:01] one time a year, right? Yeah. But the [261:04] fact that they were able, and this comes [261:05] back to IPL being the perfectly designed [261:07] sports entertainment product, sports are [261:11] king in live content in the modern [261:13] world. Fun fact, Bollywood studios are [261:17] now very, very, very reticent to release [261:21] movies during the IPL season cuz they [261:24] don't want to go head-to-head. And this [261:27] two-month period is effectively their [261:29] summer. It's when kids are out of [261:31] school. And so Bollywood is no longer [261:34] releasing their blockbusters during the [261:36] best time to release blockbusters [261:38] because they don't want to compete with [261:40] IPL. That says it all, right? The best [261:43] Bollywood product is the IPL games right [261:46] now. Amazing. And then my second [261:48] takeaway is that even I before doing [261:51] this had no idea. You may listen to this [261:53] and think my bookcase and certainly my [261:55] mega bookcase is crazy. I actually don't [261:58] think they're crazy. [262:00] There is a possible future here where [262:04] this thing is as big or bigger than the [262:06] NFL. I hope Acquired keeps going for [262:09] another couple decades so you can you [262:10] and I can test this thesis and we can [262:12] see. Yeah. H awesome. I'm so pumped we [262:15] did this episode. Me too. This was so [262:17] fun. Of course, as a cricket fan, I'm [262:19] biased, but you're going to have to let [262:20] us know what you think in the Slack. How [262:22] off his rocker is David? Carveouts. [262:25] Carveouts. Let's do it. First one I have [262:27] is Severance season 2. By the time this [262:30] airs, I think Severance will have just [262:32] ended, but season 2 is just exceptional. [262:34] This is a work of art. It's brilliant [262:36] cinematography, brilliant story. The [262:38] whole thing is incredibly high taste. [262:41] And I coincidentally also just rewatched [262:44] Lost, which I will uh say was a mistake. [262:47] Lost didn't go anywhere. It was a great [262:49] journey and then there was no reward. [262:51] And it turns out that the writers didn't [262:53] have a cohesive plan. I feel like [262:55] Severance I'm in good hands. Maybe I'm [262:58] over trusting right now, but I feel like [263:00] I have some guesses. I can see where [263:01] it's going and I've been afraid of [263:03] mystery box style shows since Lost [263:06] disappointed me. And I think Severance [263:08] is going to give me a warm, nice [263:09] embrace. So, thanks to Ben Stiller and [263:12] the crew there. It's why sports are [263:13] king. True uncertainty. You can't count [263:16] on scripted television anymore. It's [263:18] true. Maybe Severance will bring it [263:20] back. Yeah, Severance is so great. And [263:22] my second carveout is, I suppose [263:24] shouldn't be a carve out, but I'm [263:25] putting it here anyway. Come hang out [263:26] with us in New York City, July 15th. [263:29] Mark your calendar and be the first to [263:31] know at [263:33] acquired.fm/nyc what on earth we are [263:37] doing. We can't wait. My carveout is an [263:41] oldie but definitely goodie at least as [263:44] far as acquired is concerned because [263:47] actually I think as much as anything it [263:49] was our original inspiration for doing [263:51] the show and that is strategy and Ben [263:53] Thompson. Yeah, he's been killing it [263:55] recently. Obviously I've been a fan for [263:57] a decade but like he's just killing it. [263:59] Both strategy itself but I'm also loving [264:02] Sharptech the show that he does with [264:03] Andrew Sharp the bi-weekly show as part [264:06] of the stratey plus bundle. I just think [264:08] he's doing some of, if not his best work [264:12] of his career right now, which is saying [264:14] a lot. This is the man who invented [264:16] aggregation theory and I'm just loving [264:18] the work he's doing in his second [264:20] decade. Yeah, I agree. It's his best [264:22] work yet in the AI era. I would say he [264:25] was an inspiration to us when we started [264:27] acquired and he continues to be an [264:28] inspiration to us as we get ready to [264:30] enter our second decade here. Yep. Okay, [264:33] that's carve out number one. And then uh [264:35] I got parenting carve out number two. We [264:37] went on a family trip to Dallas recently [264:40] and for the first time when traveling as [264:43] just our own family of four here, rented [264:46] a minivan. I have rented a minivan in [264:49] the past when traveling with, you know, [264:51] multiple families and groups, but we bit [264:53] the bullet, rented one for a trip, and I [264:56] got to say, like, it was freaking [264:58] amazing. I'm not going to buy a minivan. [264:59] I'm not going to drive one on a [265:00] day-to-day basis here in the city in San [265:02] Francisco, but my god, traveling as a [265:05] family of four, the thing is a beast. [265:07] And the sliding doors and loading up the [265:09] car. Dude, you got to get Priscilla's [265:12] Porsche minivan. That is exactly what I [265:14] need. I need the Priscilla minivan. [265:19] That is my car. Awesome. All right. Next [265:21] time I'm down, I'll send her a WhatsApp. [265:23] Let's rent a minivan and uh we'll go for [265:25] a ride. Yeah. All right. On that note, [265:28] thank you to our partners this season, [265:30] JP Morgan Payments, Service Now, [265:32] Fundrise, and Crusoe. You can click the [265:34] link in the show notes to learn more. [265:37] Special thank you to all of the cricket [265:39] fans that we talked to and people who [265:41] helped who are in and around the game. A [265:45] few that we want to thank in particular [265:46] on air are Soma Seagar, one of the [265:49] owners along with Satia Nadella of the [265:51] Major League Cricket team in the US, the [265:53] Seattle Orcas. He is of course a partner [265:55] at Madrona Venture Group here in Seattle [265:57] and a former Microsoft exec who helped [265:59] us on those episodes too. Arvin [266:01] Navaratnam at Worldly Partners for his [266:03] great writeup linked in the show notes. [266:05] Ed Cowan. David, you want to say a few [266:07] words about Ed? Yes, Ed is great friend [266:09] of the show and former professional test [266:13] international Australian cricket player [266:15] himself and did the great great business [266:18] breakdowns episode on the IPL that we'll [266:20] link to next to Finn Bradshaw. Finn is [266:24] the head of digital for the ICC and was [266:27] super generous to talk to me. He's based [266:30] in Dubai and stayed up very late at [266:33] night to chat with me about how the ICC [266:36] works and the BCCI and all the dynamics [266:38] there. This is so fun. I actually had no [266:40] idea who you talked to other than Ed. [266:42] Yeah, Finn was great. And extra thank [266:44] you there to the management team at the [266:45] Golden State Warriors who connected me [266:48] with Finn. And then finally, thank you [266:50] to Parog Morate, the president of the [266:52] 49ers. Parog is awesome. His day job is [266:57] literally president of the 49ers. Some [267:00] relevant experience. His evening job is [267:03] chairman of the leads football club, the [267:06] soccer team in England that the 49ers [267:09] are the majority owners of. Huh. And [267:11] then for a long time his night job was [267:14] basically leading setting up major [267:16] league cricket in the US. Paragua is [267:19] awesome on so many dynamics, but [267:21] especially sanity checking and talking [267:22] through this crazy bowl and mega bowl [267:25] case for IPL. It's awesome. All right. [267:28] Well, if you like this episode, go check [267:30] out our other episodes on the NBA or the [267:32] NFL. If you want more Acquired, check [267:34] out ACQ2 recent episode with Bill [267:37] McDermott, the CEO of Service Now. And [267:39] after you finish this episode, come talk [267:40] about it at [267:43] acquired.fm/slack. With that, listeners, [267:45] we'll see you next time. I'll see you [267:46] next time. Who got the [267:49] truth? Is it you? Is it you? Is it you? [267:52] Who got the truth now? Huh? [267:57] [Music]