全球消费电子进入中国周期｜钦文对话Leif Lindner

全球消费电子进入中国周期｜钦文对话Leif Lindner IFA 首席执行官 Leif Lindner 指出，继日本和韩国周期之后，全球消费电子行业已正式迈入以极致迭代和落地速度为核心的“中国周期”，消费者的决策逻辑也正从盲目迷信传统品牌转向关注具体解决方案。对话深入剖析了本届 IFA 展会上中国企业占据半壁江山的产业镜像、传统欧美巨头在舒适区与过度监管下的迟滞，以及三星退出主展位的战略误判。同时，Leif 驳斥了行业“缺乏创新”的论调，强调破局关键在于抛弃冰冷参数、讲好生活场景故事，并阐述了 IFA 未来联动全城的“章鱼模型”与 AI 超级助手终端的远景。 全球消费电子行业经历周期性转移，在历经日本主导的2000年代与随后的韩国周期后，目前已正式迈入以高频创新为核心的“中国周期”。 (0:00) 本届柏林IFA展会上中国参展商超过2000家，占展商总数的51%与展位面积的38%，呈现出压倒性的主导地位。 (5:00) 中国企业产品迭代周期已压缩至约18个月，而欧洲本土企业通常仍需36个月以上，速度差距加剧了传统巨头的舒适区危机。 (0:00) IFA首席执行官Leif Lindner批评三星退出展会主展位的做法是严重的战略失误，指出避开主战场去办闭门展会导致品牌主动放弃核心聚光灯。 (22:15)

IFA 首席执行官 Leif Lindner 认为，全球消费电子已从日韩主导全面迈入“中国周期”，消费者的决策逻辑正从品牌忠诚转向场景解决方案。中国企业凭借高效的供应链工程与 18 个月的极速迭代拉开身位，而西方传统制造与科技行业则面临过度监管、决策迟缓与叙事脱节的多重挑战。 周期轮替：从品牌崇拜转向解决方案 (0:00) Leif Lindner 指出，全球消费电子在经历索尼引领的“日本周期”与三星、LG 主导的“韩国周期”后，产业中心已系统性转向“中国周期”。这一更迭的核心驱动力在于消费者决策底层逻辑的逆转：大众不再盲目迷信老牌大厂，品牌忠诚度已退居决策顺位的第 4 或第 5 位，产品能否直接、直观地解决现实痛点成为决定性因素。中国企业善于利用网络创作者与现场展示，将展台与消费者的家庭生活无缝打通，建立了极高的真实信任度。 以追觅、石头科技和小米等为代表的中国品牌，深刻践行了高频迭代与契合时代精神的打法。中国企业从产品立项到交付终端消费者平均仅需约 18 个月，而欧洲本土企业通常长达 36 个月以上。中国厂商在供应链履约、工程研发与市场预测上建立的综合优势，正在颠覆传统欧洲企业的慢节奏竞争模式。 规则与速度之争：传统制造的舒适区陷阱 (10:00) 在技术转化层面，中国企业展现出将研发与落地极致结合的能力。Lindner 以两次探访比亚迪的经历说明，中国企业不仅在工程与技术储备上已比肩甚至超越德国传统车企，还通过引入全球顶尖设计迅速补齐了美学短板。然而对于开拓欧洲市场的中国企业，他曾向海信集团董事长建议，必须改变成本控制思维，以顶薪引入欧洲当地最优秀的操盘人才，才能真正穿透文化壁垒。 与此同时，以西门子为代表的老牌德国制造企业在低频耐用的白电领域陷入了“思考时间过长”的舒适区惯性，在展会叙事上仍延续传统机械模式，缺乏中国品牌对 AI 的敏锐布局。在人工智能发展路径上，Lindner 援引与 AMD 的交流指出，中日韩等亚洲阵营信奉速度优先、全力拥抱创新，而欧美阵营则因繁复的合规审查与自我封闭形成阻碍。“规则监管对抗创新速度”正在导致欧洲科技产业自我减速，一旦脱节将极难追赶。 场景叙事破局与下一代超级AI终端 (20:00) 针对消费电子换新乏力与创新见顶的悲观论调，Lindner 坚决反驳，认为行业创新势能依然充沛，症结在于沟通方式失效。品牌普遍沉迷于晦涩的专业参数与芯片跑分，未能向大众讲清代际更迭给日常生活带来的显性增量。他认为，只要摒弃营销术语、回归场景叙事并展示实际生活附加值，绝大多数消费者依然愿意为新设备买单。 对于下一个可能媲美 iPhone 的革命性智能终端，Lindner 预判其产业颠覆力将超越智能手机甚至比肩工业革命。未来的核心形态或将演进为深度整合 AI 算力的随身超级助理或实体机器人，扮演“天才教练”的角色，聚合原本需要数十位专家提供的健康、饮食、机能与工作管理支持，彻底重构人机交互形态。王钦文在访谈结尾赠予的中国品牌时空壶 AI 同传耳机，其在高强度跨国沟通中的成熟表现，印证了中国新型智能硬件在细分场景落地上的技术实力。 展会实战价值与全城联动的“章鱼模型” (5:00) 在本届 IFA 上，中国参展企业数量占比达 51%，展位面积占 38%。Lindner 强调 IFA 是全球产业的镜像，坚持“人人皆可享有的创新”并严格设立筛选门槛以抵制纯粹抄袭。针对以三星为代表的部分跨国巨头退出核心展馆、转向场外酒店独立办展的举措，拥有 15 年三星工作经历的 Lindner 直言这是一次严重的“战略失误”。他强调，IFA 是集聚媒体、零售商与大众的真正实战擂台，本届专业买家逆势增长约 15%，回避主场竞技只会削弱品牌自身的声量与市场主动权。 为确保百年 IFA 在未来的核心地位，Lindner 提出了全城联动的“章鱼模型”：以 19 万平方米的柏林展览中心为主体大本营，承载全球科技巨头的产品发布与商贸对接；同时将官方策划的“触手”延伸至柏林城区的各个地标，通过密集的外围活动卷入政界、经济界、艺术界与娱乐顶流，将展会升级为跨领域关键决策者共振的综合枢纽。 Leif Lindner 的论述揭示了全球消费电子向中国供应链与敏捷迭代倾斜的历史性转移，并批判了西方企业在监管与创新节奏上的保守倾向。然而，中国品牌在全面出海进程中如何持续克服海外深层本地化障碍，以及欧美严格合规路线与亚洲极速落地模式的长期博弈，仍是未完全明朗的行业命题。

[5:00] Leif Lindner: Innovation for all [10:00] Leif Lindner: 如果你想在球队里引进 C 罗（Ronaldo）或梅西（Messi），就绝不能只开普通球员的工资；唯有高薪引入当地最懂行、最顶尖的人才，才能彻底打破文化壁垒，填补从概念到落地的鸿沟。 [10:00] Leif Lindner: Rules and regulations versus speed [15:00] Leif Lindner: The perfect coach [20:00] Leif Lindner: I would say I'm able to sell nine out of ten on a new product [20:00] Leif Lindner: 没有人会在乎某个特定名字或没人听得懂的营销词汇，也没人在乎这是什么新一代 XY 屏幕或配备了 XY 处理器。没有人再关心这些了。核心问题是：这对于你的日常生活究竟意味着什么？ [22:15] Leif Lindner: 我跟他们也是这么说的。我在三星工作了 15 年，所以我认为自己比其他人更有资格做出评价。他们依然拥有极棒的产品和卓越的概念，他们根本没必要藏起来。如果换作是我，我会展现出更强大的进取姿态。 [22:15] Leif Lindner: 今年的 IFA 就是真正的擂台，是真正的正规战场（battlefield）。去别的地方办闭门活动只是日常训练，而真正的职业职业联赛正是在这里打响。如果你跑到外面去，你就主动放弃了媒体、零售商与普通消费者的聚光灯，这实际上是在自我削弱。 [26:15] Leif Lindner: This set of gear works perfectly

[0:00] On lit. Copying Products Nous n'avons pas qu'ils vouloir. Nous voulons que nous pouvons les meilleures entreprises. C'est Laiflinder, le premier premier des principaux de la société de la société mondiale. Est-ce que vous pensez que le monde a été créé de la société mondiale? Ou est-ce que le résultat est en train de se déroule? Je dirais qu'il y a des cycles. Tote 2000s "Jabini Saigo" dominé par sony puis le cycle de korean et maintenant on a un cycle de chinois OK. Tout ce qui se fait avec AI peut être plus grand, peut être plus grand que l'industrie revolution. Vous pensez que dans le EFA, quel est le produit ou le produit peut être le deuxième technologie ? 9月7日, en Père-Line-Éphanie, je suis en train de s'arranger. 深度探讨了全球消费店的产业的变化 «中国企业走到了哪一步? où l'économie est de l'économie, et qui va changer la nouvelle nouvelle. C'est ce qui est le premier. - Hello. - Hello. Peace. Thank you. Laf ! Merci. - C'est ça ? - Oui, oui. Je suis très heureux de vous faire un petit peu de conversation Thank you so much, a pleasure is mine. Nous allons commencer. - "Cue pour l'EFA CEO, vous êtes le plus de l'accident à la société du monde." 最近 3年你看到这个行业发生的最重要的变化是什么 Il y a des changements, les gens ne sont pas remarqués, mais les gens ont déjà commencé à travailler. Je pense que le plus remarquable changement est que le consommateur est en train de regarder plus que jamais sur la solution. et pas trop sur la marque. Donc, si un produit va définir le marché c'est facile à comprendre, c'est être intuitif. Il y a un certain niveau pour le consumer dans ses jours ou ses jours. Mais en l'end, ça fait que il y a une change de story-telling, une change de marketing. Et parce que le loyauté est de la loi de la loi 2, à la 4, à la 5 décision-mâti points, ça fait que le fait que le story-telling et le marketing via creator influence est devenu plus important. Ces changements vont faire des choses qui sont très fortes de l'entreprise, et qui vont faire des choses qui sont très fortes. et de plus de plus. Je pense que beaucoup de chines entreprises C'était intéressant pour moi de regarder l'AWE. ... Quand j'étais à Shanghai l'année dernière, comment est le sens de Influenza and direct selling from the industry. For me, it looks a little bit weird. People going around like ants and ...let's say reporting. J'étais en pensant, en mon avis, c'est désturbant la énergie du show. C'est pas. C'est un mistake de me thinking. Parce qu'ils sont vraiment... - Oui. Massively pushing the contact to end consumer. They're building the gate from a show. directement dans la maison de l'hôpital à l'aise de consommateur. et c'est vraiment trusté, parce que les gens voient que l'influencer et le créateur sont interagis avec le produit physiquement. recommandé et les gens sont on accepte ses recommandations plus que jamais, parce que ce n'est pas AI, c'est fact. Pour répondre à votre question, je pense que c'est une raison pour laquelle des entreprises comme Dreamy, par exemple, et aussi Roborock, ou Xiaomi, understood that logic, et les européens, on va dire, de la rétailure est un peu différent pour sûr. mais le cycle de product de l'idée de la délivrer du produit à la consommation. Les chines entreprises seulement besoin d'une 18 mois. Je dirais que les entreprises européennes, peut-être, Needs... double of the time. Et cela meurt que vous êtes plus de la pensée du consumer et de la zeitgeist. Et cela meurt que dans un moment, je dirais que beaucoup de chines entreprises ont compris cela et ont vraiment professeur de professeur. Ils sont aussi... C'est une compétition qui est learning. Je pense que LG est en train de faire un bon travail de storytelling, de combiner la awareness de la awareness avec la storytelling en un bon way. Je me sens que c'est bon. Et les entreprises traditionnelles, exemple [5:00] 这是一个很有趣的回答下一个问题今年依法有超过1900家餐展商参展其中接近一半来自于中国为什么越来越多的中国企业来到依法在你看来这仅仅意味着中国企业更需要欧洲市场还是意味着全球消费电子产业的创新中心正在发生转移好,好,好,好嗯嗯所以我把你改两枚目我们今年有超过2000展示娃中国人是正的,长相关在最终的,在最终的,在最终的,租房 size is 38%. InNumbers51在表面上的层层,但当然是非常非常 dominant如果有人问我这,也有 European军人or creatorsI'm saying to them我们正在模仿市场不是说中文字幕:CM我们说的是,人们 who are innovative来临,因为 innovation for all是我们的节目在一刻的情况下,我们说我们的电视节to the consumer主要是在英国的主要,但是我们是在英国的主要,有超级百公司的公司在我们的节目那是我们的重要性力,比其他 shows更多。我看到这张图的AWEC.S.IFAIFS是唯一的唯一集合作的所有观众,因为媒体制作者,而互联系者,这些人用这个品牌,在最后,在最后,在店里。所以,这意思是,我们的食材是完美的。很美味嗯?嗯嗯and to coming back to that point I'mand whatnevertheless what we are also doingwe checking every companywho applied to come to us因为你能想象,我们需要一个传统的传统的公司,所以当一个公司不符合我们的传统,或者是只能够一样的传统,copying products我们不让他们进去我们想的最好的公司我们可以得到我会说there are cycles在2012年2000s日本语的圣副是在 Sony的主要然后韩国的系统,我工作了15年,然后我们有中国的系统。但这会有一个十年时间的时间,我会说十年时间的时间,从中国来到那一步。在现在,我们的关系统的统统的统统,Fulfillment,ForecastingInnovation, Development, Engineering这些双的双在现在的确是完全接触的其他人的公司其他人但是在现在的情况下中国在那地方是非常主动的, nevertheless其他国家也有机会,但他们不能接线太快我给你一个例子最多的通知性的技术是从德国的技术。那就是英国的技术。是有不是那些有的渠滞的机会 [10:00] Embrace them, looking for partnership agreements and help each other. Do you think China has become a global innovation center? Or is it a conclusion that it is still on the ground? Interesting question. I would say it's something in between because um only having innovation doesn't mean that they are successful. But what you mentioned is the combination in the moment is played maybe the the most effective from Chinese companies. That's what it is. Yeah. - There is no one of the Chinese companies It's the first time to change the idea of the Chinese market. Yes. To be honest, I was really impressed when I understood the whole ecosystem of BYD. I know BYD is not exhibiting here, but I visited them twice now, coming from Germany, I like German car engineering. Mercedes, BMW, Audi, I love it. I was not aware Um... that the capability and the technological experience is on that level and even on a maybe better level and what was missing from my point of view as a consumer and also maybe as a expert of technology was the look and feel the design approach. Chinese companies learned a lot because they, the weakness in the past when I'm looking back and I had to So Thank you. interesting discussion three years ago with Fisher you the chairman of Hisense he asked me um Life what? must happen that Chinese companies in Europe or in Germany could faster be successful. It was three years ago. Okay. And I said to him, I can tell you because I feel it every day. When you want to be successful in Europe, you need to have local experience. combined with Chinese, let's say, product innovation power. And in the beginning, Chinese companies had a cultural aspect, maybe, You don't want to hire the best... You want to hire the best people don't want to pay for the best people. give you an example, when you want to Get Ronaldo in your team or Messi. You cannot get them for our salary to invest, but if you do so, And then maybe, and then it will happen. And in some areas like BYD, for example, people hire chief design officers from Tesla, from other companies, so it's a combination. and very much faster than in the past. And that was closing the gap between theoretical having the best product to execution and bring them to market. So a lot of learning effect. That is what I recognized. If we look at the market market, Today, China, and Europe are the most difficult to do with the ability to do the best. I think Number one is... if you're Start with AI because that is the engine of everything. I had an interesting discussion that I absolutely also share Yeah. Jack Yuha from AMD. told me and that is exactly what I also thinking. You have two, let's say, areas. Number one is the Asian area, including China and of course also Korea and Japan. who are thinking AI full speed, no stopping, no regulations, because you cannot stop progress. It never worked. If you look back into humanity and human history, Don't stop innovation. And I also understand there are of course risks, but there are a lot of chances. For example, finding medicine or measurements against cancer, for example. Therefore, full speed for this area. And then we have the US and Europe side who are thinking, some regulations we had. No, we don't share our model with the others and so on. We hide it. So we are slowing down. There are reasons for both. I understand that. but that is that was also your question um that is the challenge in the moment and my feeling in a moment is that if Europe or maybe US. are not Let's see. going in that direction a little bit more. Hmm. then that is a challenge. So yes, regulation is clear, but in a moment Too much. And that means you are slowing down and you cannot catch up. That means rules and regulations versus speed. That is the biggest challenge in the moment. I was in EFA, I went to look at the market for the market, like TCL, the Hain, the Medi, the Hire. I want to emphasize AI. But at the same time, I went to the University of Ciemenz's "The Ciemenz's" The entire series of the series is almost no AI. It's also called the previous generation of the new technology. this So I know that [15:00] 企业没有去我一直在想拥抱AI这是一种价值观层面的选择还是德国企业在速食区里待了太久了对过去的成功路径太过依赖而且反而缺乏了创新的精神啊em好问题嗯我会说是对的因为我们说的房子市市市是主要的一市场如果您可以看到所以,不可能,或很多人会购买新的洗手机或洗手机,如果洗手机不是破坏的。那就是,那些事情是在购物中的一刻,在购物中的一刻,是在购物中的一刻,它是不同的,它是不同的,你和我都想,我需要一个更好的电视,我做它,我买它,所以,我买它,所以,我买它,所以,我买它是完全不同的,所以,the classical German manufacturers in my opinion thinking too long那一阵子就在那一阵子如果你看到外面的那些市场,你能不能把你意识到不浪漫或不浪漫。它改变。为什么?不是因为中国的商品是帮助力的嗯中国人说"不,不,我会有一个人,我稍微有点。"那是一种不同的执行。所以你正确是嗯...对,我...在我的 opinion,太 conservative了年来嗯现在,这是我的读言,我看到从从货物的价格上, 公司的价格上是因为是变成性又因为产品是新的,我看到减少的速度那是主要是中国商人提供新的提供而是非常快在行动叫做一叫叫做Conservative Industry一些懂得更好,一些懂得更好,但不要在那里,他们知道 exactly what to do,它会是一种正式的资格的资格但你的目标是确定的,他们等太久这是一个很好的回答Thank you 下一个问题如果把智能手机看作过去20年最重要的平台及产品你认为今天EFA展观里边哪一个产品或技术最有可能成为下一个智能手机要真正我认为everything that deals with AI可能更大,可能更大,比较大,比较大,而在一瞬间我看到一机器或一机器人的机器,但它也可能是一机器人的助手我学到的AMD, 要在智能上升到一个智能量的IQ高度上的140它是1BnEUR但你问我什么会是最后的iPhone考虑了一下the perfect coach for your sports for your for your食物食品,你的身体有所在手上的工作,所以你会有一个健康的健康,让你更好,让你愉快和你愉快,和你愉快。 With the knowledge, where you and me today had to call 50 experts, but now we only have to call one expert. In the moment, we get a lot of information, also on good quality, but again, let's take into consideration that we get advice from a genius that knows everything quite well.去成功的生活 更健康的生活 更健康的生活但又有很多下方的下方,你问我那些,如果我回应回来,我最大的,我最大的,我说是在前面的发展是一个渠达的系统。因为我的沟通不良好。我的系统改变了我的生活因为我太放松了。我的系统改变了我的生活。会是一个人物的机器或是一个机器的机器。 [20:00] That's my answer. haha It's an interesting answer. Thank you. "In the past few years, The business business always makes new products, and makes the business not to create new purchase. But today, the phone is more difficult, the TV's in the air and the air and air and air air and air air and air air Do you think the business industry is the problem? Is it a good product? Or is it a good product? Or is it a good reason to buy new products? No. I think... the products stay very much innovative. If. I would have time. and ask 10 people from the street and explain them what the products and consumer electronics can do, or which capabilities they have. I would say I'm able to sell nine out of nine out of ten on a new product. That means it's not. a lack of innovation. It's not a lack of reasonable products. It's a way of communication and of unsecurity of the people that they are thinking, I don't need it because the smartphone that is new only have some features that I don't really need. I'm happy with my old one. So it's about storytelling. It's about of telling people what is the additional use factor. But one point, design a new product as an engineer. you had to be really... on point in the value of the product. Nobody looks at, uh, Let's call it specific names or marketing words that nobody is understanding or there is a new XY that display with XY that processor and blah blah blah. Nobody cares anymore. The question is, what does it mean for your daily life? And I think that is okay. Communication had to be better. And in the end, As I said... to tell a story is more important than ever. Mm-mm. In the past, the company was the most important part of the company. He was in the EFA in the event of the event But in the year, it was brought to the company's main product, and left the company's main product. When a global company started to reduce the traditional展馆 of the impact, does this mean that the companies are trying to review the traditional展会 value? Do you think this is a signal for the security? No, it isn't. Um... I think it is the challenge of brands that are... facing more competition. and Samsung maybe is looking sometimes in the direction of Apple who are doing, who never visit exhibitions But my opinion is clear. Samsung decided not visiting AWE. Samsung decided not being on a normal exhibition at CES. They went into the hotel. Samsung skipped Orocochina. So it's not something with IFA. It is a general logic that they are focusing on own exhibitions. Mm-hmm. Um... But I think it's a strategic mistake. I might know what I'm telling you, I also told them. I was working 15 years for Samsung, so I think I'm able to judge a little bit better than others because... They have. still very good products, they have very good concepts, they don't have to hide. If I would be there I would be more exposed. because, um, And here and there, they have, I would say, advantages versus Chinese brands or others? Um... And... I would say, It's better. to embrace competition and then to go away and say at one moment if you want to see us you can go over there um and you know this year we will have i would say My estimation is that we are in between 8% to 10% more visitors and maybe 15% more special visitors means retailers and so on. That means... This year, is the plague wand. This is the battlefield. not over here. That is training. The match, the professional match is happening here. So if you go there, Okay, fine, but then you will not be in the spotlight of the media, of the retailers and of the consumer. So, okay, in my opinion, they weakened themselves. And this trend will definitely not continue. There will be another trend. People will come here being bigger and you will see next year we will have additional brands. that we are currently in discussion. They looked at IFA the first time this year to look at it. and next year they will participate. I cannot drop names now because we don't sign the contract, but this will also bring additional motivation for Samsung to come back. Mmm. Mmm. If it's over 100 years, it is still alive. you [25:00] I don't know whether IFA will resist 100 years, but I'm quite sure the next couple of decades IFA will exist. And my vision is that this place here, 190,000 square meters, is the base. I compare it with an octopus. The body of the octopus will be here. But there will be some arms in the city. that means the whole city of Berlin one of the best cities in the world you will have bigger visibilities because we do some side events outside in addition created by us again the body of the companies had to be here only an arm in the city bringing people in and motivating key opinion leaders from economy not especially from our industry politics entertainment artists so Berlin and IFA will become more than ever the entertainment and electronic hub to attract the key persons in our society Okay, very much thank you for taking our interview Next time you go to China I would like you to go to Senegal My office is in Senegal in the South of the South and there are several different AI companies There are several different AI companies Next time you go to China I can take you to visit Thank you for your timeThank you so much was really insightful very good questionsI love to join your invitationSo I'm very happy to see you next timeOk thank youThank you把我礼物给一下我给你准备了一个礼物That's me给您准备了一个礼物这个是我们在用的AI翻译耳机时空壶也是中国的企业他们今天也来依法了然后把这个送给您下次您去中国的时候可以使用你知不知道谢谢你这么多这一款是最好的语练我最近工作了因为你知道有些软件也有充满了Samsung Galaxy S26还有其他计划我都给了我但这一套Gioia works perfectly我明白每个语言英语是完美我完全可以追求全这一套最好的语言我从来以为我曾经想到没有, no joke我真的喜欢它谢谢请不吝点赞 订阅 转发 打赏支持明镜与点点栏目