英伟达五连跌叠加大摩唱空存储 美股AI芯片在财报前遭大举抛售

英伟达五连跌叠加大摩唱空存储 美股AI芯片在财报前遭大举抛售 本轮AI硬件股深度回调并非终端需求逆转，而是主力资金借机构唱空与表外承诺担忧在财报季前锁定利润并释放估值压力。 美股大盘整体波动有限，但内部资金轮动极为剧烈，市场正屏息等待最新CPI通胀数据以及以华尔街大行、台积电为代表的Q3财报披露。前期火热的AI与半导体产业链全线承压，存储芯片遭大行研报做空与竞争担忧狙击，英特尔连日大跌，半导体设备股集体回吐，英伟达日线录得五连阴并面临5,300亿美元表外采购承诺的舆论审视。软件与前沿投机板块剧烈分化，Adobe遭投行大幅降级而Salesforce逆势冲高，量子计算龙头IonQ则因全股票并购引发股权稀释恐慌重挫，市场整体在假日偏淡的交投中保持观望防守。 市场全神贯注等待最新CPI通胀数据及Q3财报季揭幕；期权市场对率先发榜的华尔街大行防守情绪显著升温，美银与大摩看跌比率升至1.33以上，而真正的重头戏美股“七巨头”财报定于10月26日当周集中登场。 (0:00) 摩根士丹利发布研报预警高带宽内存（HBM）未来供需趋稳且价格涨幅将收窄，加之国产产能顾虑，美光科技与SK海力士盘中大跌4%至6%，SK海力士自高位已累计回调逾15%。 (5:00) 英伟达日线录得五连阴并回踩50日均线支撑，SemiAnalysis披露其表外采购承诺与担保规模已激增至5,300亿美元以锁定先进制程与租赁资源，若AI需求放缓将面临潜在调整与计提压力。 (10:00) 富国银行因担忧生成式AI削弱护城河而将Adobe评级大幅下调至“减持”，量子计算龙头IonQ则因拟以13亿美元全股票收购网络安全公司引发严重股权稀释恐慌，盘中重挫约9%。 (15:00)

美股大盘在宏观通胀数据与Q3财报季揭幕前整体平稳，但内部资金出现剧烈轮动；前期过热的半导体与AI硬件链遭遇估值回调与获利了结，资金转向防御性或滞涨板块。 宏观黏性预期与Q3财报季序幕 (0:00) 市场高度聚焦即将公布的CPI数据。通胀压力正从能源端向更广泛的产品与服务扩散，企业逐步向终端转嫁成本，导致市场对美联储更长时间维持高利率的预期升温，降息路径面临不确定性。地缘政治方面，特朗普声称俄乌就核电站达成初步协议且俄罗斯意图放宽能源出口，虽致油价一度走低，但官方尚未证实且战局仍存变数。 本周大行如摩根大通、高盛与花旗率先披露Q3业绩，开启财报季序幕，而“七巨头”业绩重头戏定于10月26日当周。当前期权市场对大行防守情绪升温，美国银行与摩根士丹利的认沽/认购比率达1.45与1.34，显著高于成长股。银行业管理层此前对投行业务和息差持谨慎态度，金融板块若业绩超预期，有望迎来估值修复。 存储芯片遭空头狙击与半导体设备降温 (5:00) 阿斯麦与台积电即将公布的数据被视为验证全球AI算力基础设施成色的试金石。然而，存储板块出现明显回调，美光科技与SK海力士盘中大跌4%至6%，SK海力士较近期高位已回撤逾15%。除市场对中国存储厂商扩产及技术迭代引发远期份额顾虑外，摩根士丹利研报指出产能释放后供需将趋于平稳、产品涨价空间收窄，加剧了抛售。 半导体设备龙头拉姆研究等亦遭遇获利回吐。此类回调并非源于终端需求崩塌，更多是在前期大幅上行后，资金选择在关键财报前锁定利润以规避风险，短期大幅下探或在为财报后的估值压力释放腾出空间。 英伟达表外承诺争议与巨头抱团分化 (10:00) CPU板块受半导体降温拖累，英特尔连跌数日累计回撤约21%，业内涨价传闻未能提振股价。英伟达日线录得五连阴并回踩50日均线，SemiAnalysis报告披露其表外承诺与采购担保规模升至5300亿美元（前一季度为1840亿美元），未来或超1万亿美元。该数据属于锁定台积电先进制程代工、高带宽内存及数据中心租赁的供应采购承诺，在算力繁荣时为锁定供给的壁垒，但若资本开支放缓则隐含重置风险。 相比之下，Meta逆市上涨超3%。动荡市况中对冲基金对美股七巨头的持仓创下历史新高，巨头充沛的自由现金流使其成为避险资金抱团的重点标的。 软件板块AI分化与投机科技股剧震 (15:00) 软件板块出现两极分化。富国银行因担忧生成式AI降低创作壁垒、蚕食高额订阅护城河，将Adobe评级下调至“减持”，目标价下调至225美元，导致其年内跌幅扩大至32%左右；Salesforce则获美银上调评级至“买入”，受Data Cloud和Agentforce需求提振盘中冲高，但追高意愿有限。 高投机性科技板块在流动性约束下承压明显。量子计算公司IonQ宣布拟以13亿美元全股票收购网络安全公司Alicity，高溢价增发引发股权严重稀释恐慌，股价下挫约9%并考验120周均线；云监控软件公司Dynatrace虽受FedRAMP进展与机构上调目标价提振上涨2.8%，但前期累计反弹近40%后已大幅消化利好，需警惕财报后获利了结。 受假日影响债市休市且交投相对清淡，资金整体处于防御与观望态势。美股短线方向仍取决于后续CPI通胀表现、大行与核心半导体龙头的业绩兑现程度。

[0:00] 前期火热的AI交易全线降温，CPU、存储以及相关科技板块集体承压，获利资金加速向其他滞涨板块转移。 [0:00] 科技巨头特别是AI产业的盈利兑现能力，依旧是决定本轮美股牛市上限的核心支柱。 [0:00] 若通胀数据展现出顽固黏性，“小步慢走”的降息预期将大打折扣，甚至不排除后续被迫采取更强硬的紧缩措施。 [5:00] “反正机构要砸盘的时候，理由全都是不缺的。” [5:00] 短期深度回调反而是在财报前“深蹲”，为财报后释放估值压力并腾出反弹空间。 [5:00] 此类个股回调并非由于终端需求崩塌，而是前序涨幅过大后，主力资金选择在财报前锁定利润、规避不确定性。 [10:00] 分析师高度担忧生成式AI在降低图像与视频创作门槛的同时，正在蚕食其核心创意软件的市场壁垒，客户未来对高昂订阅费用的付费意愿存疑。 [10:00] 需要明确的是，该数据并非实际负债，而是公司为锁定台积电先进制程代工产能、高带宽内存以及数据中心租赁所做出的前瞻性供应采购承诺。 [10:00] 动荡行情中，对冲基金对美股七巨头的持仓仓位创下历史新高，充沛的自由现金流使巨头成为资金抱团避险的首选。 [15:00] 真正的趋势性大行情与关键方向选择，仍需等待周中CPI数据落地以及华尔街各大顶级机构业绩的集中揭晓。

[0:00] Music Hello, welcome to the NANDA show. Today is 10/12,周一. Because of the US, the US is because of the GOLANDBUT. The US is now in the UK, but the US is now in the US. 虽然大盘走势平稳波动不大,但是内部资金轮动明显,AI交易全线降温, CPU存储和观众性板块集体承压,资金转向其他板块。 The stockholders in the waiting for the CPI data and the financial and financial and financial financial information are available. He says that the US government is from the cost of energy and energy to the more widely used in the products and services field. The company started to turn to the market for the customers. Therefore, the US dollar-based market will be able to use the enough, the current policy policy policy policy. The current policy policy policy policy will not be enough. It is likely to take a small and slow-down period of time, and not to be able to do the last step. "We are forced to take a bigger step of action." Hamaq has said that if the交通站 is a "the industry and the消费者 are in the same place" so the future of the total rate of the total rate will be higher The CPI report will help to determine the market market market is in a further further. If the CPI is the key to the high-review rate, the high-review rate and high-review rate will be the most difficult to face. In the air, Trump said that Russia and Ukraine have already made a nuclear power agreement. Putin also agreed to sell the market market. The oil prices have been reduced, but the U.S. both didn't confirm the agreement. Ukraine is now in Russia. and the Ukraine was attacked by Ukraine. The weather is so fast. At the same time, the state of Ukraine was in a bit of a worse. The Ukraine of the Ukraine was attacked by the South of the South. The city's安全 rate is now rising, and the price of the price is now rising. The most important part of the bank today is quite平静, the most obvious the low-downs are in the半导体 bank. The high-end system of 2.7% is below. The high-end system of 2,400 to 1,2006% of the high-end system is low. The high-end system is clearly affected by the low-end system. These companies are basically in the middle of the market, and the future growth is still high, but the money is also in the financial aid. The number of points will be able to increase the number of points of interest in the middle of the year. So you can use this trend to reduce the current technology. If the price is still low, and the price is low, and the price is low, and the price is low, and the price is low. This change will be further further. The Q3 newscast in the past year, just now to open the eyes of the world. The Chinese market has been in the third year's entire year. The technology market, especially AI, is the main profit of the company's earnings. This is the main factor of the company's business. Today, the Magen-Daztun, Galsheng, Galsheng, Hwagki, and other companies will be able to expand their business. Asmai and Taiji Den and the "Hor-Sing" company's company, 本周只是这个Q3财报季的开始哈 10月26号单周也就是10月份的最后一周才是重头戏。 届时七巨头将会扎堆披露业绩 大摩和高盛管理层此前对第三季度 他们这个银行业的业务表态相对谨慎 因此市场需要确认 The key word of the key word is if it will continue. According to the latest data, For the most popular stock market, Google's biggest stock market is the World Bank of China and Stanley. 分别为1.45 1.34和1.33, this means the protection of the protection needs. And for the high-end and high-end of the social media, it is quite a bit more. Google's books are only 0.79 and 0.98. In the news, the market market has been明显ed down. The financial bank XLF has been experiencing a change. If the real estate market is better than the market, or the plan to get a better job of the business, or the plan to get a better job of the business. It could be a push-up to the bank. [5:00] Mm-hmm. Asmai and the Taiji Media's data is the AI-based platform. The company is both: the company's company, both: the半导体, the software, and the first-stage, and the first-stage, and the first-stage, and the first-stage. is a big-asset AI. The AI is a big-asset AI. The market is a big-asset AI. The market is a big-asset AI. The market is a big-asset AI. The market is a big-asset AI. Asmaid's situation is also similar to the "Talya" market market market. The rate of the year is about 4% to 6% of the increase. The numbers are clearly better than the AI industry market. The American dollar exchange team has been given the positive and positive attitude of the US trade. but at the same time, the stability of the market is to lower the level of the level of the market. The market and the market, the market today is going to be a little bit, the 3D is now down to 6%, the Meku-Anon and SK-Arrys'跌幅 is 4% in the near future, On the third week, the third year of the third year of the year, the market began to start to review the market. 以及产品能否通过服务器客户的严格验证都需要时间来检验 So, it is not possible to be able to show the technology development of the future, and to be sure that the global market will be the same. 立即发生根本性的变化。 但是对于美国SK海利市等公司而言,中国竞争者的技术进步也确实增加了未来定价权。 and the market market market market. In addition, Morgan Stanley's latest report,指出 AI-based design and design is in推动 and financing. the time is still longer, but this is not a traditional time. The company will increase the supply and supply of supply. The future will be more stable and more balanced. 价格涨幅收窄以及盈利预期的调整 换句话说 AEI's future growth and growth of the year-old market. 反正机构要砸盘的时候哈理由全都是不缺的 SK Haley's stock market has been over the last few years, and it's still a little bit faster than the 50% of the average. 显示这个短线资金仍在撤退 沙跌动能正在这个集中示范 For the trade-off, we need to divide two questions: one is the demand demand is still still in the future, Another one is whether it is a good price for the previous earnings. Even though the first person has no more than a bad person, the first person has no more than a bad person. The first person has no more than a bad person. as a result, the previous generation of the previous generation of the previous generation was not yet to be a good, but the previous generation of the previous generation was not yet to be a good. No one or a small friend can be a discounted option. If you leave a discount, it will be quickly returned. If the price is higher, then we should take a look at the price of the price. Then, after the return, we can slow down some more, and then buy a lower rate of the price. The same thing with the internet and the internet is the same as the LIT's long-term stock market. This is a black hole, and the red hole is a black hole. It is the red hole, and the red hole is a black hole. The price of the stock market is clearly reduced, and the financial revenue is now due to the pressure. The price of the price is from the price of the price of the price, not the price of the price. The past few years of the company's actions, the most important thing to do is to keep the buyers in the past. This is not a LIT, but the international and international and international and international. The company's price is still hard to get to the price of the company. The price is already in the beginning of the year. So this low-dose, not because of the demand is due to the collapse, but it is in the time of the price. The market is a whole of a peaceful and peaceful. The market is in the year's growth after the market, and the market is a whole. The market is a whole. In the past, the report is to report the report. um,先深蹲流出这个财报后上涨的空间 CPU 概念股也同样成呀 Intel 股价低超 3% 不同于 LIT 才刚刚下跌 Intel 这边已经 [10:00] 去的了好几天了股价累计回测了约21%市场进行期持续传出CPU产商,比如英特、AMD、高通等准备上调产品价格的消息。虽然涨价能够转化为更高的毛利率有利于盈利所以被视为利好但是CPU股票其实也就受到这个半导体板块整体降温的拖累软件股今天呈现风化,网络安全股多数走低。整体受到资金轮动的影响和基本面无关,因为上周其他软件走低的时候,网络安全股就一直在,所以这周就资金跑去其他地方了,市场流动性减少,资金只能够天天翻牌子轮流的重新,没有办法一起上。耳朵币股价继续撑压,今年又遭到了富国银行大幅下调,品级与目标价从增持下调到减持。目标价从270美元降到了225美元主要担忧AI竞争亲使而得比核心创意软件业务的正在前景公司过去12个月营收增长约12%毛利率达到了89%一样是一家盈利能力很强的软件企业那是生成式AI正在降低部分图像视频和内容创作任务的门槛客户未来是否还愿意持续支付原来的软件订阅费用可能成为影响多比增长的重要因素也让分析师对公司的未来收入增速更加的谨慎澳洲比今年以来股价已经累跌了约32%股价近期持续在半年线下方震荡说明中期趋势稍微扭转大幅下跌之后估值可能已经较此前更有新盈利但是估值下降不等于风险已经释放完毕相较之下CIM表现就要好一些股价今年盘出一度散展接近5%随后回落收盘仍然上涨,美银将该股品级上调至买入,认为AI的普及有望增强企业对Sourceforce数据平台。和Agent Force等参业的需求不过呢分析师善调品级能够改善市场预期,却不代表资金会立即持续追涨所以后续人去观察这个股价能否持续保持一个反弹动能IIN的日内高开低走盘前喊一度剩5%结果收盘倒跌1.1%根据这Information报道,公司可能与Unsupeak签署了云服务协议,这消息就引发投资者对云业务增长的期待。可是公司并没有对此做出确认行再加上今天比特币与算利股都在DIR也难以一枝独秀因为大股价近期连续数日回落日线形成了五联英在七巨头战中表现是最弱的股价可能会去回踩50日均线寻找波段支撑如果该位置能够有效止跌的话可能就形成一次技术性的反弹若是跌破了50日均线之后还无法这个止步不能够迅速收复的话那这一轮调整就会从短期货利了结演变为更深层次的估值修正了但它估值已经很便宜了,再修正也修不着哪里去了。公司面临的另一项争议是它的表外承诺与担保规模显著增加。根据空头造谣大本营Semi-Analysis对公司财报披露项目的整理,因为打相关承诺和担保的总额已经达到了5300亿美元。高于上个季度约1840亿美元的水平未来数年还可能进一步扩大到1万亿美元以上这里咱们要学会区分这个数字并不等于因为咱已经欠下了5300亿美元的债务也不代表这些金额最终都会转化为实际损失如果AI需求持续增长客户按计划履约,那这些承诺将会成为因为它扩大市场份额的工具。但如果未来资本开支放缓,部分项目取消或者推迟,因为大家就可能面临着供应承诺的调整,租赁安排的重新分配。以及这部分担保可能无法完全回溯的分线以英维达的这个体量营收来说它其实是承受得起这种风险的所以短期股价回调之后我们可以等机会重新上车Meta股价今年涨超3%消息称Meta旗下的个人AI助手Muse的用户流程水平接近XGBT其实这就是一个借口主要原因是现阶段这些机构资金正在疯狂的抱团七巨头对冲基金对七巨头的持参水平已经达到了历史新高了每一次这个美股市场动荡投资者情绪患得患失的时候都会涌入这些 [15:00] 金流最丰厚的大型科技里面的B线量子计算股IONQ股价今天大跌9%公司计划以13亿美元全股票收购网络安全公司Alicity引发了市场的担忧尽管公司宣称这个决定将把量子计算与网络安全业务结合起来围绕未来大预言模型和量子计算可能带来的安全威胁拓展产品布局逻辑上并非完全没有合理性哈,但是全股票收购形式以及较高的估值溢价引发了投资者对潜在股权稀释担忧。因为大家都知道嘛,这些量子计算股其实都是烧钱公司,收购的钱基本只能够靠蒸发哈周线级别股价正在测试120周均线伏极支撑区域,这条长期均线正在过去几次回调中。发挥了支撑作用,但是并不意味着这一次一定能够守住,如果股价能够在此止跌的话,可能形成极端性的底部。但若是分量跌破,那就需要警惕中期趋势进一步走落。对于这一类高头几股,消息面与技术面破位往往会相互强化。仓位控制比单纯预测底部更加重要DT股价今天涨了2.8%公司在争取美国联邦政府最高级别云安全授权方面取得了进展RBC也将其目标价从59美元三条到73美元,并且维持跑赢大势评级。分析师容委公司即将公布的财报可能继续受益于企业对云监控和安全管理的需求,全年业绩指引也存在三条空间。不过DT股价自三个季度财报发布以来已经累积上的39%看这一轮展示和现在的估值水平即使真的有什么财报利好都已经price in了可能财报后会利好出尽行今天我们就简单说到这里吧今天这个市场哈其实在市没有开张,所以整体还是蛮平静的估计大的行情还是得等周二周三周四呀那我们就明天见拜拜