长年累积的高强度空袭与防空拦截，让沙特的防空网濒临枯竭。沙特部署在苏丹王子空军基地（Prince Sultan Air Base）的美制“萨德”（THAAD）反导系统据报严重受损，大量爱国者导弹消耗殆尽。雪上加霜的是，沙特为了防范霍尔木兹海峡遭封锁而斥资打造的1200公里东西输油管道，遭到了亲伊朗的伊拉克与也门民兵精准打击。张经义指出，这处横跨沙特国土的固定输油设施长达千余公里，根本防不胜防，一旦受损油料完全无法西运，目前评估修复至少需要6至8周甚至更久，沙特的战略防御已处于极度脆弱的境地。
subgraph 决策误判与冲突爆发
A["沙特王储（小萨勒曼）"] -->|"致电寻求支持，愿分担红海压力"| B["美国（特朗普政府）"]
B -->|"默许沙特行动，鼓励打击胡塞"| A
A -->|"联军轰炸机场及军事设施"| C["也门胡塞武装"]
end
subgraph 战局反噬与战略背弃
C -->|"反击曼德海峡，加固红海防线"| D["封锁红海海运"]
C -->|"导弹/无人机直击利雅得、吉赞及输油管"| A
B -.->|"私下透过阿曼媾和，换取美舰互不攻击"| C
B --x|"拒绝向沙特出兵，不愿开辟第二战线"| A
end
subgraph 战力来源与求援困境
E["AI模型（Anthropic）+ 3D打印"] -->|"自主研发/优化高超音速导弹与无人机"| C
F["伊朗"] -.->|"战略伙伴关系（非提线木偶）"| C
A -->|"因安全绝境转向寻求斡旋"| G["中国"]
G -.->|"尝试向伊朗沟通，但伊朗无法直接操控胡塞"| F
end
```
[0:00] RONCIN TIECHA! E aí, você vai ter melhor para você. Você vai ter melhor para você. Você vai ter melhor para você. E aí, o que você vai ter melhor para você. 伊朗无意再战,但是要不要继续战,那态度在美国的身上,伊朗也说我已经把一些条件给美国了,但是胡塞这边又是另外的故事,我看了你做的影片,你在讲胡塞跟伊朗的关系,说我们不在当地过于简化伊朗跟胡塞之间的关系,也不太了解胡塞跟沙特为什么打成这个样子,而沙特是全世界买美国武器, Agora eu acho que o jogo é muito difícil, e também temos uma nova série de um vídeo, Sáudia Souturiah de... - ...发动恐怖... - ...发动刑期... 吴塞自己的说法, é um... Agora Mas Sáudide ainda não tem que fazer o resultado. Você pode ver que o momento é É muito importante, é um pouco mais de um exigente de Sául. Porque Sául de quando ele faz isso, o importante é que ele foi um grande motivo de Sául. A Hovera é duas partes, a Manda de Sáu-dea de Sáu-dea é mais importante é porque uh A cidade de Aenbo é muito grande, e tem um grande de treinou. Então, na área da área, uma área de água, tudo o treino. Uma área de uma área grande, é um pouco de um dos. A área da área não é nada mais nada. Atenbo de esta lente de banho de banho, Sáu Dílte de Ouro, é que todos os seus produtos do mundo Na região da região, eu fui lá. E aí, eu vou fazer o treino, treino depois, eu vou fazer o treino do treino do treino Ele está em um março, e ele vai para o Manda de Sául. Manda de Sául de é um grande motivo de uma coisa importante, quando o Muzzi Sául de Sául de se abriu, Ele estava em tornoção antes de eleição, ele estava em torno de Trump, o Sala Man. Ele disse que ele estava em tornoção, e ele estava em tornoção.
[5:00] 我觉得就是好啊就是你可以分担我的压力啊对啊减少我的压力反反复复战争期间就是说你们这些海湾阿拉伯国家要帮我出钱啊要帮我出兵啊是不是你记得印象非常深刻他还要收所谓的守护天使费用这个很奇妙的一个名称啊就是他要收这些费用呢就是来美军为美军护航所谓的护航你们出这个霍沐斯海峡那我可以收一些费用所以他当时川普就估计听到这个小萨勒曼打电话给他一次就说那好呀那那你你要去跟胡塞武装分摊我的压力好 那你就去做所以当时才会爆发这个事件 当然也是说不清楚了 究竟是伊朗的 以色列 究竟是也门的所谓的政府军还是沙乌地区轰炸这个胡塞的一个机场现在是说不清楚的一个状况但是胡塞武装却认定是沙乌蒂干的所以因此胡塞他就进行了非常强烈的一个反击那沙乌地当时的一个想法就是他希望能够借着所谓的这些政府而也门的这个政府军的一个力量确实这个政府军的一个力量无论是军力或者是设备上面来说可能都比胡塞还要来得好但是因为也门确实是处一个分崩离析的一个状况然后现在其实更像是我们在上个世纪的军阀割据的一个状况就是每个军阀有它自己的一个考量跟想法那虽然都在一个野门的这个大帽子底下或是政府军的这个大帽子底下但各有各的想法各有各的算盘所以他们其实胡塞武装呢他有点就变成合中联合的一个方式他能够各个击破在这样的一个状况之下 胡塞五中控制到了曼德海峡现在的状况其实现在这几天最新的消息是他在曼德海峡已经开始做一些加固的工程就是已经开始在建立它的防线所以将来要攻下那的海峡 难度确实会变得非常的高同一时间他也不停的再去打沙乌地阿拉伯去攻击沙乌地阿拉伯 包括跟他连接的基站这边的这些练武场等等包括现在是直接打到了这个沙乌地的首都好啦 那现在的状况变烧地 其实在这一次应对伊朗的一个因为我们知道在过这次美以伊战争的初期去伊朗方向朝沙乌地打来的导弹数量是非常多的还有无人机的导弹数量是非常多的包括我当初在从阿曼坐飞机要到土耳其途经沙乌地经过利亚德的时候应该是差点遭到导弹的一个袭击,所以我那时候飞机都出现非常大幅的一个转弯那当时真的就是美军,沙欧地已经动用了大量的这些爱国者导弹了,多年美积起来的爱国者导弹,萨德系统,我们听说他在这个沙欧地的这个萨德系统被摧毁了王子空运基地的SAD系统确实是受到很严重的损伤在这样的状况之下,它的整个防御能力已经变得非常的脆弱 同一时间东西输油管1200公里这个他们当初是真的没有想到 他们想到的是这个是万一货木载家封锁之后 油可以往西去但是1200公里的输入管你要怎么去保护它?它就固定在那里所以只要敌人一不开心 或者是他就很轻松的1200公里你根本防不胜防就是固定在那里 这样的一个通道所以我们也可以看到就是据沙乌地的说法是伊拉克的野痕的民兵对这个东西事物有关进行攻击 所以现在东西输油管也卡住了 现在说维修可能要6到8周 我觉得可能还要更长的一个时间 所以这个油也输不出来对所以就是处于一个他已经防护能力已经非常薄弱的一个状况之下小撒拉曼两度打电话给川普川普的意思是说我们不会出兵去帮你就是不会去打也不在无中 甚至我在阿联酋这边的媒体看到他们的一个报导就是川普政府甚至私底下
[10:00] 透过阿曼 中立国阿曼来跟胡赛武装有直接的接触得到胡赛武装向美国保证不会攻击美国的船只因为胡赛武装其实他也不想要跟美国在正面冲突因为对于他来说压力很大你说沙乌地当初打电话给川普说我可不可以打胡赛武装川普说好然后川普甚至在后来的这个接受记者提问的时候他说万一发生这个冲突怎么办然后开始是说美军会出动但是实际上当发生问题的时候美国他是说我没办法帮你然后他还去跟沙乌地的敌人直接做接触就说我们两个互相不要打好了那沙乌地就傻了他现在状况就是说 如果你当初说不好 我也不会去打他对不对 那你现在让我去打他 你现在不帮我 还去找我的敌人然后进行对话 然后说两个互相不要攻击 就变很尴尬所以我们现在看到的状况就是沙鲁地跟中国求救然后就是希望中国能够跟伊朗说就是能不能所以现在在这样的一个局面就可以看到就是连沙鲁地他都觉得他没有办法再靠命这就是一个过去没有办法想象的一个状况过去包括胡塞武装可以看到去年沙鲁地也觉得胡塞武装是个很大的困扰去年我们也看到川普一上来他就去攻打胡赛武中当了两个月那当然是没有什么成效就是美军确实是在这几年的表现没有特别的好在这样的一个状况之下在去年他还有想要帮沙乌地但今年在自己都已经在霍无无自海峡已经焦头烂额的状况之下他真的也没有能力再去开辟第二战线然后他们40胜0去年他们就打不过无塞武装那今年你已经打不过伊朗你还要再去打无塞武装美军根本就是如果真的打下去的话又失败的话那对于美军在全球的一个地位就真的是非常重大的一个冲击所以川普现在选择收手那因此沙乌地我们可以看到他就跟中国方面来求援那希望中国能够跟伊朗来说但问题是就像我在我那一期意见里面所说的就伊朗跟胡塞武装不是一个代理人或傀儡的一个关系不是伊朗把胡塞武装当体现木偶不是的胡塞武装其实等于是伊朗的战略伙伴他确实是有能力他当然也得到伊朗的一些技术支持包括一些战术的指导等等这是不可否认的事情但是胡塞武装确实有自己制造没错导弹的能力包括像Nantophek他之前公布了一个报告他这个报告里面就是说有在胡赛武装控制区的人运用这个Aithropic AI去制造超音速导弹然后还真的应该是制造出来了就透过AI然后继续做超音速导弹我们造弘赛武装确实是有超音速导弹这个是事实他们现在还要制造更先进的能够射程更远的超音速导弹他们好像还真的做出来然后还试飞了结果试飞失败他又回去问这个Anthropic的AI说我们现在要怎么去修复这个导弹让他真的能够变成超音速导弹能够飞得更远然后那时候Anthoropics一查就哎不对哦这个好像是他们真的发展出导弹的意思就禁止了他们的一个使用那从这个角度来看就是胡塞武装他确实有自己无论是制造这些他的无人机其实在阿拉伯世界我都听到就是他们就是会在家里自己用3D打印做无人机3D打印机了他可以做武器对 有办法做到这个地步胡赛武装并不是受控于伊朗所以现在的状况就变得很尴尬就是沙乌地想要求中国去帮忙然后跟伊朗施压但实际上伊朗他没有这样的能力跟胡赛武装说你要不要这么做当然对于伊朗来说
[15:00] - Ha. He also hopes to see the Maldon-de-Karjah It's a big deal for the world to be held in the world. the pressure of the sea. So now it's a really hard to get a situation And now Sadi is really hoping to and the other people who are able to support the country But the situation is quite complicated. I think in the beginning of the HUSSE武装, the border of the Mandeu-Haijah At the end, if Sa'uddin didn't Because in the US, it is a very bad situation, but it is only possible to and to talk to the other people in Saudi Arabia and the other people in Saudi Arabia. In 2021, they were in the same way. The agreement is about the Sauriti, even though they still have to pay to support the public and the public. The situation is that I just can't just be able to do it and the war in the war, to see if they can achieve a certain extent. That's why the first time the Saudi army will do this, it's because the United States has been given to him. And then I left him and left him. It's a very natural situation. So we can see the area of the field of the field has been very big changes. This is actually I think the international conference has been very important for the international conference It's a very special expression of the people who are in the country He said: If you want to build a safe area, - I think that we need to get Iran to get in the country - No, that's right - Even the other country, even the other country, even the other country, even the other country, even the other country because I'm actually Iran's relationship is better. I think I have been thinking about this So big of a neighbor in there, I just want to be in a way of being in a way. I can be able to make my best利益. Because you are not going to go to the next generation, but the American is going to go. Because the American army is going to go and go and not back. But Iran is not going to go. It's a big country, a large country, a large population, a strong population. So, Ahman's thought is The state of the region must be in the region of the country. Now, even Carter, he was a character in the past, also introduced a The idea of the area of the area Bah, I la. to be able to in the structure of the system. The United States and the Arab countries must be We want to ensure that we have a safe and safe for each other. Because Iran is not a safe place. This is a very big change. In this time, I was very interested in the agreement. I was very interested in Qatar. This idea is that the idea of the idea of the idea of the Iranians. This idea of the idea is that it is not a matter of. It is a matter of more than the Arab countries. Hamid. to accept this reality, which is that the army is going to go. And it will go further and go further, but it will not come back But Iran is not able to go Our safety must be from our own. We must be from the Lord. This is a way to make our best利益. It's not to be a part of the world in the world, and say it's a part of the world. This is a rather serious attitude Today, during the time of the year, I want to thank you for the time of Mr. St. E. St. E. is in the middle of the year, but in Abu Dhabi in the Arling Chiu, Arling Chiu, Arling Chiu, the Arling Chiu, the move to the top of the world, is very close to the point of the war. Because for this two times of war, Arling Chiu is really, with the women and the women, and the other people are in the war. Any other good luck, not to be caught, really惹 a lot of a heart. Now, not to say that with Iran, it was with the Sartor of the war, now it is already down to the war, OPEC is already退. And then, the E-Mann, the Arling Chiu, is actually a very important role. and they all have to be in the air. That with Israel's relationship, it was not too close. Now, it is very difficult to turn. As for example, the Middle East area, I have a simple conclusion. First of all, the government's rights already崩溃. The government's building in the ground, the government's building on the ground, the government's building on the ground. That's 15 buildings, as the American people say, that's not possible to be built.
[20:00] E... O que é isso? Ele é só para ele, ele é um problema. Então, ele está aqui no meio ambiente. Ele não pode, ele não pode, depois, em Búrse-1, ainda não tem um航空. Eu também me agradeço. E. S. L. E. O.国家的信任 E. S. L. E. S. L. E. Agora, Sartre e胡sa, se um um problema. Mas, no problema é um problema. Mas, no fim de acordo com a gente, o importante é que, a gente vai conseguir um problema. O importante é que, a gente vai conseguir um um problema. A gente vai ter um um forte de um descoberto, mas vai ter um um descoberto de um descoberto. A gente vai ter um descoberto de um descoberto. A gente vai ter um descoberto de um descoberto. Não tem um descoberto de um descoberto. E aí E aí E aí E aí E aí
