ChatGPT美股实盘八周涨4.9% 跑赢标普4.8个百分点

浑水摸鱼清源

依靠重仓瓦莱罗能源对冲宏观通胀与维持两成现金缓冲，大模型在规避高风险衍生品的同时成功跑赢大盘基准。

AI-assisted summary of 【Ryan Scribner】我让AI帮我炒股两个月，结果惊呆了！ — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-10-14

Key ideas

Ryan Scribner 开展为期 12 个月的实盘实验，投入 1,000 美元真实资金完全由 ChatGPT 指导交易，以跑赢标普 500 指数为核心目标，并设立了严禁杠杆、期权、加密货币与仙股的严格风控红线。 (0:00)
经过 8 周的真金白银实操，ChatGPT 管理的投资组合累计回报率达到约 4.9%，而同期计入股息的标普 500 基准（VOO）仅微涨约 0.1%，AI 组合实现跑赢大盘约 4.8 个百分点的超额收益。 (12:35)
传统能源炼油股瓦莱罗（Valero）成为整个投资组合的最大黑马与支柱，在油价飙升宏观环境下第 4 周累计涨幅超 34%，有效对冲了科技板块的阶段性剧烈回调。 (7:57)
AI 在第二周机械清仓跌幅近 10% 的戴尔以规避风险转入现金，但戴尔随后交出靓丽财报并连续大涨创历史新高，暴露出规则化止损容易错失后续主升浪的短板。 (5:19)

Detailed notes

## Background 本内容由B站UP主“浑水摸鱼清源”于2026年10月14日搬运发布，原作者为财经博主Ryan Scribner。视频展示了一场为期两个月的AI炒股实盘实验，博主拿出1000美元真实资金并设定严格风控底线，由ChatGPT全权负责选股与仓位决策，旨在观察大模型能否跑赢标普500基准指数。

## TL;DR 实验开始时，ChatGPT构建了包含先锋标普500 ETF（VOO）、微软、摩根大通、戴尔以及意外之选瓦莱罗能源的五项资产组合。在经历第二周科技股回调后果断清仓戴尔并持有现金观望，随后择机买入英伟达，并在油价破百与美债利率波动的宏观环境下，依托瓦莱罗的超额爆发与科技巨头轮动对冲风险。经过长达8周的实盘运转，AI组合以4.9%的累计收益战胜了同期仅微涨0.1%的标普500基准，斩获4.8个百分点的超额收益，并在第九周初刷新资产历史新高。

## Atmosphere & style 视频展现出严谨求实与趣味探索兼备的极客极简质感，博主以幽默且客观的“打工人券商”自嘲口吻推进周度复盘。从开局暴涨的惊喜，到清仓戴尔后眼睁睁看着其再破历史新高的哭笑不得，再到瓦莱罗单骑救主时的由衷惊叹，情绪跌宕起伏却始终保持理性克制。整场分享节奏明快、数据详实，既充满了对AI自动化交易潜力的好奇与兴奋，又时刻透露出对金融市场不可预测性的清醒敬畏。

## Bulletin - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=0s) Ryan Scribner 开展为期 12 个月的实盘实验，投入 1,000 美元真实资金完全由 ChatGPT 指导交易，以跑赢标普 500 指数为核心目标，并设立了严禁杠杆、期权、加密货币与仙股的严格风控红线。 - [12:35](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=755s) 经过 8 周的真金白银实操，ChatGPT 管理的投资组合累计回报率达到约 4.9%，而同期计入股息的标普 500 基准（VOO）仅微涨约 0.1%，AI 组合实现跑赢大盘约 4.8 个百分点的超额收益。 - [07:57](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=477s) 传统能源炼油股瓦莱罗（Valero）成为整个投资组合的最大黑马与支柱，在油价飙升宏观环境下第 4 周累计涨幅超 34%，有效对冲了科技板块的阶段性剧烈回调。 - [05:19](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=319s) AI 在第二周机械清仓跌幅近 10% 的戴尔以规避风险转入现金，但戴尔随后交出靓丽财报并连续大涨创历史新高，暴露出规则化止损容易错失后续主升浪的短板。

## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=0s) 由于自动化 API 接入券商难度过大，作者本人充当 ChatGPT 的手动执行“券商”，以保留关键的人工安全复核阀门。 - [02:39](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=159s) 实验初始配置并未押注高风险投机股，而是构建了涵盖 VOO、微软、摩根大通、瓦莱罗与戴尔的 5 标的多元化组合。 - [03:45](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=225s) 第一周通胀数据低于预期提振美股，戴尔大涨 12.79%、瓦莱罗大涨 16.73%，AI 组合首周迅速拉开与大盘的领先优势。 - [05:19](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=319s) 第二周纳斯达克回调超 2%，ChatGPT 果断指示全额清仓戴尔并转入现金观望，展现出严格的防守避险纪律。 - [06:37](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=397s) 第三周英伟达财报翻倍后，AI 指示小仓位买入 100 美元英伟达，并保持 21% 至 22% 的充足流动性现金储备以应对不确定性。 - [07:57](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=477s) 瓦莱罗能源受益于国际油价破百与高炼油利润率，成为组合的定海神针，在第四周累计涨幅突破 34%。 - [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=600s) 此前被 AI 坚决止损清仓的戴尔在第四周和第五周连续暴涨并创历史新高，体现出 AI 机械止损在个股反转行情中的局限性。 - [10:45](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=645s) 第六周美债收益率逼近 5% 且美联储加息，标普 500 基准跌至 -1.27%，而 AI 组合逆势上涨 3.75%，超额差距拉大至 5 个百分点以上。 - [11:45](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=705s) 第七周美股出现风格轮动，微软单周大涨约 4.5% 领跑，而瓦莱罗受美伊外交谈判影响单周下挫超 6%，首度成为拖累项。 - [12:35](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=755s) 第八周通胀降温与科技巨头创纪录的 1500 亿美元股票回购提振市场，瓦莱罗反弹 5%，最终确立 4.9% 对 0.1% 的首阶段胜局。 - [13:40](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=820s) 前两个月的优异表现只是 12 个月长期测试的开端，作者强调不能盲目照搬 AI 进行养老金投资，未来真正考验仍在后头。

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=0s) Rules, Guardrails, and Human-in-the-Loop Setup

Ryan Scribner launches a new experiment on agentic trading by handing over complete control of a stock portfolio to ChatGPT for two months, backed by $1,000 of real capital. The overarching objective is singular and direct: outperform the S&P 500 over a 12-month period. To keep the AI from engaging in reckless financial gambles, Scribner institutes a strict set of boundary rules: no options, no margin borrowing, no cryptocurrency, no leveraged ETFs, and no penny stocks. Crucially, ChatGPT is barred from dumping the entire account balance into a single speculative stock on a whim right before an earnings announcement.

While Scribner initially explored Robinhood's developing agentic integrations to link his brokerage directly to ChatGPT via API, the technical setup quickly proved overwhelmingly complex. Preferring not to risk real money on an unstable pipeline, he decided to handle trade execution manually: “So technically speaking, I was ChatGPT's stockbroker, but unfortunately for me, I wasn't paid.” He stresses that retaining human confirmation acts as a critical safety valve. He issues an explicit disclaimer warning viewers that this experiment is purely educational entertainment rather than personalized financial guidance: “So do not watch this experiment here and think the lesson is cool. I'm going to let AI take control of my life savings.” The $1,000 allocated was an amount he was entirely prepared to lose.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: ChatGPT Portfolio Execution Workflow accDescr: Diagram illustrating how ChatGPT analyzes the market within guardrails and directs Ryan Scribner to execute orders manually on Robinhood.

subgraph Inputs["Prompt & Guardrails"] A["$1,000 Capital Base"] B["Rules: No Leverage, Crypto, Penny Stocks, Options"] C["Benchmark Target: Outperform S&P 500 (VOO)"] end

subgraph Intelligence["Decision Engine"] D["ChatGPT Analysis & Allocation"] end

subgraph Execution["Manual Trade Execution"] E["Ryan Scribner (Unpaid Human Broker)"] F["Robinhood Cash Account"] end

Inputs --> Intelligence D -->|"Buy/Sell Orders & Cash Targets"| E E -->|"Places Orders"| F ```

[02:39](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=159s) Initial Portfolio Construction (August 7)

On August 7th, the experiment officially begins as ChatGPT receives its constraints and cash balance to build the opening portfolio. Rather than betting on obscure names, ChatGPT selects a diversified 5-asset mix combining index tracking, tech giants, financial stability, and legacy industry exposure:

* **Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO):** Bought to act as the internal benchmark to directly track market performance within the account. * **Microsoft (MSFT):** Selected as a foundational, blue-chip pillar providing exposure to generative AI, enterprise cloud computing, and big tech. * **JPMorgan Chase (JPM):** Added to diversify outside technology by bringing one of the world's largest banking institutions into the mix. * **Valero Energy (VLO):** A refining and energy company that caught Scribner off guard, proving that the model was thinking beyond typical retail AI picks. * **Dell Technologies (DELL):** Chosen to capture hardware demand across enterprise PCs, high-performance servers, and server infrastructure feeding the broader AI boom.

[03:45](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=225s) Week 1: Inflation Relief and an Explosive Start

The initial week delivers an immediate surge across the portfolio against a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Cooler-than-expected inflation numbers alleviate investor anxiety around elevated interest rates, driving the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high. AI server momentum lifts Dell by nearly 10% in a single trading session, while geopolitical disruptions boost refining margins, pushing Valero up roughly 14% on the week. JPMorgan also hits a record high, while Microsoft trades sideways.

When Scribner conducts his first portfolio check-in, the returns look remarkably strong: Dell is up 12.79%, Valero has climbed 16.73%, and JPMorgan is up 3.00%. The sole position in the red is Microsoft, down 1.23%, which also happens to be the portfolio's largest initial dollar holding. In contrast, the VOO benchmark is up 0.90%, confirming the basket is handily outpacing the broader index. After submitting the balance sheet update to ChatGPT, the model instructs him to maintain all positions without taking profits or altering allocations.

[05:19](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=319s) Week 2: Market Pullback and the Dell Liquidation

The second week shifts sharply in the opposite direction, wiping out the bulk of the portfolio's early outperformance. Rising US Treasury bond yields and escalating geopolitical friction in the Middle East pull the S&P 500 down, dragging major indexes into negative territory. Dell is hit with heavy profit-taking following its prior highs, plunging nearly 10% across the week. Meanwhile, crude oil jumps over 6% due to tensions surrounding Iran, allowing Valero to buck the trend and post continued gains while the rest of the market slides.

At the second weekly review, Microsoft sits down 4.00%, Dell and JPMorgan have erased their gains to sit relatively flat, and the VOO benchmark has dipped roughly 0.50% below purchase price. Only Valero preserves a significant gain. Confronted with the sudden tech pullback, ChatGPT issues a sharp defensive maneuver: liquidate the entire Dell Technologies position and move the proceeds into sideline cash. Reflecting on the abrupt shift in sentiment, Scribner admits: “At this point the only position that we're still up in here is Valero, which is still up pretty significantly. But Dell is relatively flat. JP Morgan is relatively flat, down 4% on Microsoft.”

[06:37](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=397s) Week 3: Establishing an Nvidia Stake and Holding Cash

By the third week, equity markets stage a tentative rebound. The S&P 500 edges up approximately 0.50% and the Nasdaq adds nearly 1.00%, shaking off hot inflation readings and renewed rate concerns. The primary catalyst is Nvidia's blowout quarterly earnings report, where year-over-year revenue more than doubles, reigniting enthusiasm across AI-adjacent software and infrastructure equities. Microsoft emerges as a prime beneficiary of the sector bounce, surging more than 6% over the week.

ChatGPT calculates an overall cumulative portfolio return of 2.90% since the August 7th launch, holding an edge over the S&P 500's modest 0.24% gain. Capitalizing on the tech hardware momentum, ChatGPT directs Scribner to deploy some sidelined capital into a $100 starter position in Nvidia right after earnings, while leaving $225 untouched. This leaves the account holding an intentional cash cushion of approximately 21% to 22% heading into the following week.

[07:57](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=477s) Week 4: Dell's Surprise Surge and Valero's Breakout

Week 4 proves subdued for the broader market as the S&P 500 trades essentially flat, yet crude oil spikes roughly 9% amid persistent Middle East geopolitical strife. This oil rally feeds directly into Valero, driving the refiner up another 5%, while Nvidia extends its post-earnings climb. However, the most striking development involves the stock ChatGPT chose to discard two weeks prior: Dell delivers record-setting financial results and raises its full-year guidance, rocketing nearly 16% in a single day.

* The overall AI portfolio sits up roughly 3.60% since inception, while the VOO benchmark sits slightly in negative territory at -0.20%. * The newly established Nvidia stake is up nearly 3.50%, JPMorgan trades slightly higher, and Microsoft continues to recover. * Valero establishes itself as the standout winner, rising past a 25% cumulative gain. * ChatGPT's rules-based audit signals that “no exit rules were triggered,” prompting an instruction to maintain all holdings and preserve the $225 cash reserve. * By the close of the week, Valero reaches an aggregate gain exceeding 34% over its five-week holding period, prompting Scribner to observe: “But to be honest, Valero is carrying the entire portfolio right now.”

[10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=600s) 第五周：原油破百助力瓦莱罗，清仓的戴尔再创历史新高

在将最新的投资组合状况输入 ChatGPT 进行复盘后，AI 决定本周不做任何调仓操作，指令非常明确：继续持有现有仓位并保留场边现金。回顾第五周的整体表现，大盘再次度过了艰难的一周，标普 500 指数下跌约 0.8%。背后的宏观推手在于原油价格重新飙升至每桶 100 美元上方，引发市场对通胀复燃的深度担忧，并显著推高了美联储进一步加息的市场预期。

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Week 5 Portfolio Divergence accDescr: Macro oil price surge impacts Valero and NVIDIA differently while VOO dips. subgraph Macro["宏观经济因素"] O["原油突破100美元/桶"] I["通胀担忧与加息预期升温"] O --> I end

subgraph Impacts["资产表现分化"] V["瓦莱罗能源 Valero 上涨 ~5%"] N["英伟达 NVIDIA 下跌 ~5%"] SP["标普500基准 (VOO) 下跌 ~0.8%"] end

I -->|提振炼油利润| V I -->|打压成长科技股| N I -->|拖累大盘| SP ```

然而，对大盘构成压力的油价上涨，再次化身瓦莱罗能源（Valero）的强力催化剂。在整个美股大多数标的纷纷下挫之际，瓦莱罗逆势再度大涨约 5%，继续巩固其作为 AI 选股中王牌标的的地位。另一边，英伟达（NVIDIA）的表现则急转直下，单周下挫约 5%。更具戏剧性的是此前被 AI 坚决止损卖出的戴尔（Dell）：仿佛嫌投资者的心理阴影面积还不够大，戴尔在被清仓后再次暴涨 8%，直接冲破阻力创下历史新高。

- 标普 500 指数（VOO）当周下跌约 0.8% - 瓦莱罗能源（Valero）逆势上涨约 5% - 英伟达（NVIDIA）单周回调约 5% - 已清仓的戴尔（Dell）跳涨约 8% 并创下历史新高

---

[10:45](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=645s) 收益差距扩大与第六周：美债收益率冲高下的韧性

到了随后的周度更新节点，ChatGPT 毫无悬念地再次建议维持“零操作”。不过，由于标普 500 指数近期的持续疲软，AI 投资组合与对照基准之间的收益差距进一步拉大。自 8 月 7 日建仓启动以来，作为基准的先锋标普500 ETF（VOO）收益率为 -1.27%，而由 ChatGPT 管理的实盘投资组合整体上涨 3.75%，AI 组合实现领先大盘 5.02 个百分点的亮眼战绩。

步入第六周，宏观环境暗流涌动。尽管标普 500 指数整体几乎走平，但宏观消息面极具冲击力：美联储进行了自 2023 年以来的关键加息操作，10 年期美债收益率重回 5% 关口附近，原油价格也牢牢稳固在 100 美元上方。这继续为炼油企业创造极其丰厚的利润空间，瓦莱罗再次充分享受行业红利。而英伟达则经历了更为剧烈的大幅震荡：周初多位 AI 行业领军人物基于安全风险呼吁放缓 AI 开发，导致该股在周一重挫超 3%；但随后英伟达迅速收复失地并强势反弹，全周最终逆势收涨约 2%。

- 截至第六周初，VOO 累计收益率为 -1.27%，AI 投资组合累计收益率为 +3.75%，超额收益达 5.02% - 宏观标志性事件：10 年期美债收益率逼近 5%，油价持续处于 100 美元以上 - 英伟达周初因 AI 监管呼吁暴跌超 3%，但全周反转收涨约 2%

---

[11:45](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=705s) 第七周：科技股反弹领跑与瓦莱罗首度受挫

在第七周的评估中，策略依旧是按兵不动，继续将充裕的购买力保留在场边观望，让现有持仓自行运转。这一周的盘面风格发生了显著的板块轮动，此前沉寂的科技巨头扛起领涨大旗，其中微软（Microsoft）表现极为亮眼，单周强劲上涨约 4.5%。

反观此前数周连续作为组合定海神针的瓦莱罗，本周终于踢到了铁板。由于美国与伊朗之间传出外交谈判的积极预期，导致原油价格急剧下挫，瓦莱罗单周大跌超过 6%。这也是整个实验进行数周以来，第一次出现科技股全面领涨组合、而瓦莱罗反而成为拖累整体业绩主力的情况。

- 微软单周上涨约 4.5%，成为组合当周最大赢家之一 - 瓦莱罗受美伊谈判及油价暴跌拖累，单周下跌超过 6% - 投资组合呈现“科技领跑、能源承压”的风格轮动

---

[12:35](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=755s) 第八周：超级回购提振市场，八周实盘终局大胜

进入第一阶段实验的最后一周（第八周），市场波动性依旧剧烈。美债收益率周初一度冲上数十年来的高位，但随后公布的通胀数据显著降温，加上意外疲软的非农就业数据，大大削弱了市场对美联储进一步加息的预期。在个股层面，科技巨头再度爆发，贡献了约 4% 的涨幅；同时该公司更是祭出了史无前例的 1500 亿美元股票回购计划，创下美国企业历史上规模最大的回购纪录。而在经历了一周的回调后，紧缺的汽油和柴油供应重新支撑了极高的炼油利润率，“瓦莱罗迅速回到了大家熟悉的瓦莱罗状态”，单周反弹回升约 5%。

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 8-Week Performance Comparison accDescr: Final return comparison between ChatGPT portfolio and S&P 500 benchmark. subgraph ChatGPT["ChatGPT 投资组合"] A["8周累计收益率 +4.9%"] end

subgraph Benchmark["VOO 标普500基准"] B["计入股息收益率 +0.1%"] end

A -.->|跑赢 ~4.8 个百分点| B ```

在长达八周的真金白银实操后，整体成绩单尘埃落定：ChatGPT 管理的投资组合累计回报率达到约 4.9%，而同期计入分红派息的标普 500 基准指数基本持平，仅微涨约 0.1%。面对两者的鲜明对比，主讲人赞叹道：“So ChatGPT is currently beating the S&P 500 by roughly 4.8 percentage points, which is genuinely extremely impressive and not how I expected this to go.”（所以 ChatGPT 目前跑赢了标普 500 指数大约 4.8 个百分点，这确实极其令人印象深刻，完全超出了我最初的预期。）

---

[13:40](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=820s) 第九周前瞻与十二个月长跑展望

作为本期视频的尾声，主讲人提前剧透了第九周（即录制当周）所发生的行情，这将直接开启该系列的第二篇章：美股科技股迎来全面大爆发，直接推动该实盘投资组合的总资产创下了历史新高。

主讲人指出，为了回馈粉丝，邮件订阅用户将能提前整整一周免费观看第二集的内容。不过，他也清醒地提醒所有观众，这仅仅是一个为期 12 个月的长期实盘实验的开端，眼前的领先并不代表最终结果，“真正的考验还在后头”，后续的市场演变充满各种未知可能。无论最终结果是 AI 彻底战胜市场，还是重新证明人类在金融行业依然拥有不可替代的工作价值，这场探索都极具参考意义。

## Notable quotes > [12:35](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4?t=755s) ChatGPT is currently beating the S&P 500 by roughly 4.8 percentage points, which is genuinely extremely impressive and not how I expected this to go. — Ryan Scribner

## Mentioned Ryan Scribner, ChatGPT, 标普500指数 (S&P 500), 先锋标普500 ETF (VOO), 微软 (Microsoft), 摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase), 瓦莱罗能源 (Valero Energy), 戴尔科技 (Dell Technologies), 英伟达 (NVIDIA), Robinhood, 纳斯达克 (Nasdaq), 美联储 (Federal Reserve)

## Video description 【Ryan Scribner】我让AI帮我炒股两个月，结果惊呆了！ I Let AI Run My Stock Trading Portfolio

实验初衷与规则设定这次实测投入了1000美元的真实资金，设定了在未来12个月内跑赢标普500指数的核心目标。为了公平对比，投资组合中包含追踪标普500的VO ETF作为对照基准。同时为AI设定了严格的纪律红线：禁止期权、禁止杠杆、禁止加密货币、禁止杠杆ETF、禁止仙股，且严禁将所有资金押注在单一股票上。由于自动化API接口设置复杂，最终由本人扮演类似券商的角色，根据ChatGPT给出的建议手动执行买卖操作。

AI首轮资产配置与持仓揭晓在8月7日正式启动时，AI交出了第一版投资组合清单：首先是VO作为大盘对照基准；其次是微软（Microsoft），作为布局AI云计算与科技巨头的核心标的；第三是摩根大通（JPMorgan），为投资组合增加大型银行的防御性配置；第四是瓦莱罗能源（Valero），一家炼油与能源企业，成为意外之喜；最后是戴尔科技（Dell），兼顾PC、服务器及AI基础设施。

前两周的市场波动与果断清仓启动仅一周后，美股迎来利好，通胀数据低于预期，标普500创新高。AI组合表现亮眼：戴尔大涨12.79%，瓦莱罗暴涨16.73%，摩根大通上涨3%，微软微跌1.23%，同期VO基准上涨0.9%。但在第二周，由于美债收益率上升及地中海局势不确定性，纳斯达克下跌超2%，戴尔回撤近10%。面对剧烈波动，AI果断下达指令：清空戴尔全部持仓，将资金转为现金在场边观望，而瓦莱罗因油价大涨逆势上涨。

增持英伟达与灵活的现金管理进入第三周，市场迎来温和复苏。在英伟达公布财报实现营收翻倍后，AI建议建立100美元的英伟达初始仓位，同时在侧翼保留约21%至22%的现金储备。此后几周，尽管宏观面遭遇美联储加息、10年期美债收益率重回5%以及油价突破100美元等利空洗礼，AI持仓中的瓦莱罗在第4周创下上涨超过34%的惊人战绩，成为整个投资组合的绝对主力。不过值得一提的是，被AI提前清仓的戴尔在后续数周再度飙升创下历史新高，也让AI错失了一部分利润。

八周实盘战绩与最终结论经过长达8周的实盘跟踪，ChatGPT管理的投资组合累计收益率达到约4.9%，而同期标普500基准指数加上股息后几乎持平（约为+0.1%），AI组合成功跑赢大盘约4.8个百分点，并在第9周初创下历史新高。尽管这是一场趣味性和探索性兼具的小额实验，但结果证明大模型在资产配置、风险规避和捕捉行业黑马（如Valero）上展现出了超越预期的敏锐度。

可执行性操作指引严控风控红线：在尝试AI辅助或量化交易时，必须设定不容触碰的防线（如严禁杠杆、期权和高风险仙股），并严格控制实验资金总额。平衡自动化与人工复核：尽管AI能做出理性决策，但在面对情绪化暴跌时（如戴尔清仓），需结合市场趋势评估，避免因机械清仓错过后续主升浪。动态现金配置与分批建仓：保持20%左右的现金流动性储备，在优质标的（如英伟达财报发布后）分批切入，能有效提升账户整体抗风险能力。

简洁时间轴 [00:00] AI接管美股投资组合 [02:39] 确定初始选股与分配规则 [03:45] 第一周持仓暴涨与战绩 [05:19] 第二周市场回调与清仓戴尔 [06:37] 第三周建仓英伟达与现金占比 [07:57] 第四周瓦莱罗领涨与业绩复盘 [09:32] 第五周持仓表现与大盘对比 [11:12] 第六周美联储加息与油价影响 [12:30] 第七周微软表现与板块轮动 [12:59] 第八周英伟达回购与最终战绩

[Source](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1wGpy6pEM4)

中文简报

ChatGPT美股实盘八周涨4.9% 跑赢标普4.8个百分点依靠重仓瓦莱罗能源对冲宏观通胀与维持两成现金缓冲，大模型在规避高风险衍生品的同时成功跑赢大盘基准。实验开始时，ChatGPT构建了包含先锋标普500 ETF（VOO）、微软、摩根大通、戴尔以及意外之选瓦莱罗能源的五项资产组合。在经历第二周科技股回调后果断清仓戴尔并持有现金观望，随后择机买入英伟达，并在油价破百与美债利率波动的宏观环境下，依托瓦莱罗的超额爆发与科技巨头轮动对冲风险。经过长达8周的实盘运转，AI组合以4.9%的累计收益战胜了同期仅微涨0.1%的标普500基准，斩获4.8个百分点的超额收益，并在第九周初刷新资产历史新高。 Ryan Scribner 开展为期 12 个月的实盘实验，投入 1,000 美元真实资金完全由 ChatGPT 指导交易，以跑赢标普 500 指数为核心目标，并设立了严禁杠杆、期权、加密货币与仙股的严格风控红线。 (0:00) 经过 8 周的真金白银实操，ChatGPT 管理的投资组合累计回报率达到约 4.9%，而同期计入股息的标普 500 基准（VOO）仅微涨约 0.1%，AI 组合实现跑赢大盘约 4.8 个百分点的超额收益。 (12:35) 传统能源炼油股瓦莱罗（Valero）成为整个投资组合的最大黑马与支柱，在油价飙升宏观环境下第 4 周累计涨幅超 34%，有效对冲了科技板块的阶段性剧烈回调。 (7:57) AI 在第二周机械清仓跌幅近 10% 的戴尔以规避风险转入现金，但戴尔随后交出靓丽财报并连续大涨创历史新高，暴露出规则化止损容易错失后续主升浪的短板。 (5:19)

Reading summary

博主 Ryan Scribner 开展了一项为期 12 个月的实盘交易实验，将 1,000 美元本金交由 ChatGPT 全权决策；在最初两个月（八周）内，AI 组合取得约 4.9% 的累计回报率，跑赢同期标普 500 基准指数（含股息回报 0.1%）约 4.8 个百分点。风控边界与人工半自动化执行模式 (0:00) 实验设定了明确的操作红线以防范高风险投机：禁止涉及期权、杠杆借贷、加密货币、杠杆 ETF、微型仙股，以及财报前重仓押注单一投机股。由于 Robinhood 的 API 自动化集成过于复杂，Scribner 选择充当“未付费的人工股票经纪人”，由 AI 输出指令，人工在现金账户确认并执行交易，从而保留人工确认这一安全防线。同时 Scribner 声明此实验仅为教育娱乐，不构成财务建议，1,000 美元为其能够承受全额损失的资金。初次建仓与非典型配置布局 (2:39) 8 月 7 日建仓时，ChatGPT 构建了由五大资产组成的多元化组合：标普 500 ETF（VOO）作为对照基准；微软（MSFT）提供云计算与科技蓝筹敞口；摩根大通（JPM）配置传统大金融；戴尔（DELL）布局 AI 硬件服务器基础设施；以及让博主感到意外的传统炼油股瓦莱罗能源（VLO）。这一篮子配置兼顾了科技成长与顺周期工业，打破了散户常见的纯 AI 概念偏好。能源对冲与戴尔“误杀”卖飞的戏剧博弈 (5:19) 在后续八周的波动中，瓦莱罗能源（VLO）成为组合最核心的收益支柱。在地缘摩擦与原油重返每桶 100 美元推高炼油利润的宏观周期中，瓦莱罗多次逆市暴涨，五周累计涨幅曾超 34%，甚至单周在基准下滑时逆市上涨 5%，极大抵消了科技股回调。相对地，AI 在第二周大盘下挫时出于防守指令彻底清仓了抹平涨幅的戴尔。然而戴尔随后交出破纪录财报并调高指引，单日暴涨近 16%、后续再涨 8% 创下历史新高，成为 AI 机械止损的一大遗憾。现金缓冲与科技股反弹锁定超额收益 (6:37) 在清仓戴尔并动用部分闲钱于英伟达财报后建立 100 美元底仓后，ChatGPT 长期指示保留约 225 美元（占比 21% 至 22%）的现金缓冲，且在第 4 至第 7 周面对市场波动连续指示“零操作”。尽管英伟达与瓦莱罗在部分周度遭遇行业监管讨论或油价谈判回调，但微软在第七周强劲反弹约 4.5%，并在第八周叠加非农就业降温及美股大型科技公司创纪录的 1,500 亿美元股票回购利好，助推组合在第八周末锁定 4.9% 的回报率。八周测试验证了 ChatGPT 在防御性仓位配置和跨周期对冲上的有效性，但 Scribner 强调这仅是 12 个月长跑的开端，前期的领先无法保证长期胜率，AI 与人类投资能力的真实差距仍有待后续全周期检验。

精炼阅读摘要

博主 Ryan Scribner 开展了一项为期两个月的 AI 炒股实盘测试，由 ChatGPT 全权决策并由人工辅助执行 1,000 美元本金的交易。在严苛的风控规则限制下，该 AI 投资组合最终以 4.9% 的回报率大幅领先同期收益仅为 0.1% 的标普 500 基准指数（VOO）。实盘风控框架与人工兜底机制 (0:00) 为了避免大语言模型在金融市场中做出非理性投机，Scribner 在启动 1,000 美元实盘前设立了明确的边界约束，严禁 AI 进行期权交易、融资融券借贷、投资加密货币、杠杆 ETF、微型低价股（Penny Stocks），并杜绝在财报公布前夕将全部仓位单押单只高风险股票。该实验的核心目标是在 12 个月的跨度内击败标普 500 指数，分配的 1,000 美元完全属于可承受全部亏损的资金。由于直接通过 API 接口将券商 Robinhood 与 ChatGPT 连接的技术链路过于复杂且存在稳定性风险，Scribner 选择充当“未获报酬的人类股票经纪人”，由 AI 下达调仓指令，人工负责手动执行与核验。Scribner 强调，保留人工确认环节是核心的安全阀，同时提醒观众该实验仅用于教育娱乐目的，不可直接将其视为个人财务建议或将全部积蓄交由 AI 管理。初始持仓架构与非典型能源配置 (2:39) 8 月 7 日建仓之初，ChatGPT 并未盲目追逐冷门标的，而是配置了涵盖指数对标、科技巨头、金融机构与传统工业的五项多元化资产：先锋标普500 ETF（VOO）作为内部对照基准；微软（MSFT）提供企业级云计算与生成式 AI 敞口；摩根大通（JPM）用于对冲非科技行业风险；戴尔科技（DELL）以捕捉企业 PC 与 AI 高性能服务器的硬件需求；以及传统炼油企业瓦莱罗能源（VLO）。将瓦莱罗纳入投资篮子让 Scribner 颇感意外，表明该模型并未局限于散户青睐的纯科技概念。事实证明，瓦莱罗在实验过程中扮演了关键的抗风险角色。在美联储加息预期升温及原油一度突破每桶 100 美元的宏观背景下，瓦莱罗因极高的炼油利润率屡创阶段新高，单只持仓累计涨幅一度突破 34%，在多周时间内成为支撑组合跑赢大盘的决定性动力。防御性止损与英伟达低位建仓 (5:19) 在第二周科技股随大盘回撤、美债收益率上升且戴尔单周暴跌近 10% 抹平涨幅之际，ChatGPT 迅速采取防御性策略，果断下令全额清仓戴尔并将变现资金转为场边现金。然而，这一决策也体现了规则化量化决策的局限性：两周后戴尔凭借历史级财报与上调全年业绩指引单日跳涨近 16%，并在第五周再次上扬 8% 创下历史新高，AI 组合错失了戴尔后续的大幅反弹行情。在清仓戴尔并持有现金观望之后，ChatGPT 于第三周抓住英伟达（NVIDIA）亮眼财报带动硬件板块反弹的契机，指示划拨 100 美元开仓建立英伟达观察仓位，同时将剩余的 225 美元保留为现金底仓。这一操作使组合维持了约 21% 至 22% 的流动性缓冲，在后续多周科技板块与大盘震荡时为整体净值提供了避震保护。板块轮动收尾与八周超额回报 (11:45) 实验后半段经历了显著的宏观与行业轮动。第六周至第七周，10 年期美债收益率逼近 5%，油价高位震荡导致市场情绪分化。第七周因美伊外交预期导致油价急跌，瓦莱罗单周回撤超 6%，但微软强劲上涨约 4.5% 接力成为领涨龙头，投资组合展现出稳健的再平衡与抗跌属性。进入第八周，通胀降温与疲软的非农就业数据弱化了加息担忧，科技巨头实施创美国企业纪录的 1,500 亿美元股票回购，瓦莱罗也反弹约 5%。最终结账时，ChatGPT 管理的投资组合八周累计实现收益约 4.9%，而同期计入股息的先锋标普500 ETF（VOO）仅上涨约 0.1%，AI 实盘取得了 4.8 个百分点的超额 Alpha，大幅超出 Scribner 的最初预期。主讲人强调，尽管第九周科技板块大涨已推动该账户总资产创出新高，但八周的表现仅是为期 12 个月长期测试的初步开局。短期的超额收益并不能证明 AI 已彻底战胜市场，在后续复杂的宏观与政策演变下，AI 模型的选股策略能否持续跑赢人类与指数仍存在高度不确定性。

Source quotes

[12:35] Ryan Scribner: ChatGPT is currently beating the S&P 500 by roughly 4.8 percentage points, which is genuinely extremely impressive and not how I expected this to go.

Original transcript

[0:00] I gave ChatGPT complete control of my Robinhood agentic stock portfolio for the last two months with one simple goal in mind: to beat the S&P 500. That means AI was in complete control of what I bought, what I sold and how much cash was held on the sidelines, and the results were genuinely shocking. Some of the picks were spot on, while others missed the mark, and there was some pretty major news along the way that completely changed the experiment. This is going to be my first episode here in a new series on agentic trading, so make sure you subscribe for future episodes and drop a like for the YouTube algorithm. I started ChatGPT with $1,000 of real money and one simple goal in mind, to beat the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. which tracks the S&P 500. From there, ChatGPT could pick stocks that it felt had a strong chance of actually outperforming the market, but I did give it some important guardrails. No options, no margin, no crypto, no leveraged ETFs, and no penny stocks. And most importantly, no throwing the entire portfolio into one random stock on a Tuesday because it expected to have good earnings. Now there's one important detail here as well about the order execution. ChatGPT wasn't actually the one placing the trades, plan here. Robinhood has been working on agentic integrations that allow AI systems to interact with financial accounts. So initially, I thought that's perfect. I'll just link Robinhood to my chat GPT and let the robots take it from here. But that lasted about five minutes. After spending some time going through the setup process, I realized I was getting into very technical territory that was way over my head. And since there was real money at stakes here, I quickly So technically speaking, I was ChatGPT's stockbroker, but unfortunately for me, I wasn't paid. And honestly, guys, having that extra human confirmation step probably wasn't a bad thing because that leads us to something very important before I reveal the portfolio. This experiment is obviously meant to be entertaining, but it is not an investment recommendation or personalized financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Investing involves risk, and you could lose money. And I would be especially careful with the category of agentic trading, systems have the ability to make changes within your real financial accounts. So do not watch this experiment here and think the lesson is cool. I'm going to let AI take control of my life savings. This was $1,000 I was comfortable experimenting with, even potentially losing 100% of if it came down to it, with very defined rules in a separate portfolio. So on August 7th, it was officially time for ChatGPT to start the experiment. I gave it the $1,000 balance, the rules we just talked Here's what it came up with. First up was VOO, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and this had a very important job to serve as the benchmark for the S&P 500 for this portfolio. Next up was Microsoft, not exactly the most shocking AI stock pick of all time. Jack GPT looked at Microsoft as one of the higher quality companies that it could own while still getting exposure to AI, cloud computing, and of course, big tech. Then we had JP Morgan. This gave the portfolio exposure outside of technology, and we now had one of the biggest banks in the world included in the mix. After that came a slightly more interesting pick, Valero, an energy and refining company. Definitely not a stock I would have guessed when I asked ChatGPT to build this portfolio, but that's what makes this experiment interesting. These are not supposed to be my picks. And finally, we had Dell Technologies, another tech company that was very different from Microsoft with exposure to PCs, servers, and the infrastructure behind the AI boom. So I placed the trades, the experiment was officially underway, and I came back a week GPT. Alrighty guys, so we are one week in on the AI stock portfolio and I'm honestly shocked with these results so far. I mean so far the AI has been able to do exceptionally well here. We are up 12.79% in Dell, 16.73% on Valero, and then 3% on JP Morgan. The only stock that's down out of the portfolio right now is Microsoft down 1.23%. That is the biggest position, but I'm excited to see what happens if we give that a bit more time. And then also just for our benchmark, the S&P 500 VOO is at up 0.9%. So definitely has beat the market so far in terms of these overall returns. but now it's time to give this to ChatGPT. and ask for a portfolio update and see if it wants to make any changes here during the second week. Week one was fairly positive for the overall market. Inflation came in cooler than expected, which helped ease some concerns around interest rates, and the S&P 500 actually reached another record high. Dell jumped nearly 10% in a single day, as strong results elsewhere in the AI server industry reinforced just how much money was still flowing into AI infrastructure, [5:00] Valero had an even bigger week, gaining roughly 14% as geopolitical disruptions drove refining margins and profits higher. JP Morgan also reached a new all-time high, while Microsoft was relatively quiet. After sharing the results with ChatGPT, the decision was to make no changes, so here's what happened in week two. Alright guys, so it's been another week here for the AI Portfolio, and this week is a lot less exciting. We gave back a significant amount of the early lead that we had there. At this point the only position that we're still up in here is Valero, which is still up pretty significantly. But Dell is relatively flat. JP Morgan is relatively flat, down 4% on Microsoft. And the S&P 500 is down about half a percent from the time of purchase. So I just sent this over to ChatGPT and we'll see if there's any changes. But the early lead was definitely exciting and the portfolio is a little bit less exciting now. Week number two was almost the complete opposite of week number one. Rising bond yields and continued uncertainty in the Middle East pushed the S&P 500 down, And that hit Dell especially hard. After reaching an all-time high the previous week, Dell fell almost 10% as investors started taking profits from some of the biggest AI winners. But this is also where having Valero in the portfolio started to pay off. Oil jumped more than 6% during the week as tensions with Iran continued, helping Valero actually gain while most of the market was falling. move that money into extra cash held on the sidelines. Alrighty guys, it's been another week here and we had a change to the portfolio, which I am excited about just to have some action here. Before I tell you about that, the first thing I want to mention here is looking at the performance versus the S&P 500. We are still beating it slightly here. So ChatGPT has said the return since August 7th has been 2.9%. relative to 0.24%. Now the change that was recommended, which I of course had final say on, which I did go through with, was purchasing a $100 starter position in NVIDIA and that's gonna leave us with $225 left over in cash. They just reported earnings, so the AI said this seemed like a solid bet. We'll see what happens here. So we have a new position now in the portfolio. And we're holding roughly 21, about 22% cash right now. So we'll see what next week brings. Week three brought a modest recovery for the overall market. The S&P 500 gained about half a percent, while the NASDAQ rose close to one percent, despite harder than expected inflation and renewed concerns about interest rates. The big story was AI. NVIDIA reported another massive quarter with revenue more than doubling from a year earlier, and that helped lift off other AI-related stocks. Microsoft is one of the biggest beneficiaries here, gaining more than six percent during the week. Okay, guys, so another week, another portfolio update here. for starters, it mentioned that the portfolio is up about 3.6% since launch, while VOO is slightly negative, so it is in fact beating the S&P 500 over the short term here. Last week's purchase of NVIDIA is going pretty well. We're up a little shy of 3.5%. Valero is still the big winner in this portfolio. We're up over 25% in that now. JP Morgan is up slightly. Microsoft has come back a VOO is down 0.2% just for a benchmark there for that. So I'm letting ChatGPT run through things and give me a recommendation, and we'll see if we're going to make any portfolio changes this week shortly. It did mention here that no exit rules were triggered, so we're not going to be selling anything this week. And the recommendation is in. It says hold all positions, keep $225 in cash. So we're going to leave it be and see what happens next week. Week 4 was pretty quiet for the overall market. The S&P 500 was basically flat, but oil surged roughly 9% as tensions with Iran continued. That was great news for Valero, which gained another 5%. Nvidia also continued higher after its monster earnings report. But the most interesting stock this week wasn't actually in our portfolio anymore. Dell reported record results and raised its full-year outlook, sending the stock almost 16% higher in a single trading day. with this, but it was cool to see that the trade actually played out in a favorable direction, had we actually held on. Alright guys, so for this week's update here, we are seeing some serious momentum continuing here with Valero. That stock is now up over 34% since it was purchased about five weeks ago. That's been pretty much the biggest winner in this portfolio. JP Morgan is still relatively flat, and we are down slightly on these tech holdings here with Microsoft and Nvidia. But to be honest, Valero is carrying the entire portfolio right now. And the benchmark position in VOO is down slightly. [10:00] that Now, after submitting this to ChatGPT this week, we are not making any changes. We're just going to hold the cash and hold the positions. So we'll keep following this portfolio and see what happens. Week five was another tough week for the overall market. The S&P 500 fell about 0.8% as oil surged back above $100 a barrel, raising inflation concerns and increasing the odds of another Fed rate hike. But once again, that was great news for Valero. While most of the market was falling, Valero gained another 5% and continued to look like picks. NVIDIA went the other direction, falling around 5%, and because apparently we hadn't suffered enough already, Dell, the stock that we had already sold, jumped another 8% and reached a new record high. Alright guys, another week here, another update. Not surprisingly, it had us do zero changes for this week again, but it did point out here that because the S&P 500 has actually dropped a little bit in the last week, the spread here has actually widened between these two. The return since August 7th for the VOO benchmark is negative 1.27%. Meanwhile, the portfolio overall is up 3.75. The AI portfolio is leading by 5.02 percentage points, so we'll check in next week. Week 6 was surprisingly eventful, even though the S&P 500 basically went nowhere. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield moved back around 5%, and oil remained above $100 a barrel. And once again, that was fantastic news for Valero. continued creating extremely strong conditions for refiners. NVIDIA had a much crazier week. It dropped more than 3% on Monday after several AI industry leaders called for slowing down AI development over safety concerns. But NVIDIA actually recovered from that sell-off and ended the week around 2% higher. All right, guys, so this week was the same as last week. There are no updates to the portfolio, so we're going to keep our buying power on the sidelines and continue week. Microsoft was one of the biggest winners here, gaining around 4.5%. But Valero finally hit a wall. After being one of ChatGPT's strongest picks for multiple weeks, Valero dropped more than 6% as hopes for negotiations between the US and Iran sent oil prices sharply lower. So for the first time in a while, technology was actually leading the portfolio while Valero was dragging things down. And with that said, here's what happened during the final week of part one of this experiment. So it's been another week here with the AI Stock Portfolio and the recommendation for this week again was to hold all positions and keep the cash reserve. No exit rules have been triggered, so we haven't sold anything recently. I'm excited to keep this going. If you guys want to see more of this, drop me a comment, subscribe, and I'll keep doing update videos on this AI portfolio. But yeah, I'm excited to see what next week brings, so we'll check in then. Week 8 was another volatile one for the overall market. Bond yields initially surged to multi-decade highs, but cooler inflation and a surprisingly weak jobs report later in the week reduced expectations for another Fed rate hike. of our biggest winners gaining about 4 percent the company also announced a massive 150 billion dollar stock buyback program the largest ever announced by a u.s company and finally after having a bad week valero went right back to being valero the stock gained about five percent as tight gasoline and diesel supplies continued creating extremely profitable conditions for refiners after eight weeks the chat gpt portfolio was up around 4.9 percent and including dividends our is basically flat up around 0.1%. So ChatGPT is currently beating the S&P 500 by roughly 4.8 percentage points, which is genuinely extremely impressive and not how I expected this to go. But before we go, I want to quickly share something that happened during week nine, which is actually this week, and that's going to kick things off for the second episode. Tech stocks went on a massive rally and that sent our portfolio to a new all-time high, so I am really excited to see what continues to happen during this portfolio series. If you want to see what happens next before everybody else, I'm trying something new here with this series. Email subscribers are going to get access to episode 2 a full week before it goes live on YouTube, so you can click the link down below to join that list for free. But the real test is still ahead because this is a 12-month experiment and things could go in any direction from here, and I'd love to hear your predictions down in the comments below. I'll read and respond to each comment that I get. market or proves why humans still actually have real jobs in finance. You can click here to watch this next video I think you might enjoy, and I'll see you next time.