美债风暴未消叠加放贷本质暴露 SoFi股价恐下探10美元

美债风暴未消叠加放贷本质暴露 SoFi股价恐下探10美元 尽管管理层描绘万亿美元金融科技生态，但SoFi底层利润仍高度依赖个人放贷利差，在美债收益率飙升推高负债端成本且冲击尚未充分计价的背景下，投资者应等待股价回调至10美元附近的安全边际。 SoFi凭借纯线上轻资产模式构建一站式金融平台，并描绘了5000万会员与万亿市值的宏大愿景，但近期的股价大幅回调反映了现实层面的三重压力：估值倍数压缩、新股增发稀释以及美债收益率飙升带来的高息揽储压力。尽管公司披着“金融科技底层SaaS”的外衣，其实际利润支柱依然是赚取利差的传统放贷业务，且科技解决方案板块近期因大客户流失收入下滑23%。以管理层预计的2028年每股收益1.10美元（折合约15亿美元净利）计算，其距离万亿市值仍有巨大鸿沟；主讲人认为债市风暴尚未完全计价，建议投资者保持耐心，等待股价回调至10美元附近（约16倍市盈率）时再寻找更具安全边际的布局机会。 SoFi管理层描绘了从200亿美元迈向1万亿美元市值的长期愿景，计划到2030年将会员数扩张至5000万，并将单客产品使用数从1.5个提升至3个。 (0:00) 近期SoFi股价遭遇剧烈回调，主要受三大因素拖累：估值倍数从44倍回落至约25倍、去年底新股增发导致股份稀释14%，以及高利率宏观环境下盈利预期未能同营收指引同步上调。 (7:57) 尽管被冠以金融科技标签，SoFi本质仍高度依赖传统利差放贷模式，最近季度贷款板块贡献了约4亿美元利润，而轻资产科技平台收入因大客户流失同比骤降23%。 (13:00) 美债收益率攀升至5%的宏观压力尚未完全被股价消化，若未来股价回踩至10美元附近（对应约16倍市盈率），将提供更为坚实的安全边际。 (17:50)

主讲人 Daniel 认为，尽管 SoFi 首席执行官安东尼·诺托（Anthony Noto）描绘了依靠数字化飞轮冲刺“万亿市值”的宏伟蓝图，但公司本质上仍高度依赖重资产放贷与净息差驱动，且近期正面临估值大幅压缩、股权稀释以及高利率环境冲击负债端成本等多重压力。 万亿市值愿景与数字化飞轮构想 (0:00) SoFi 管理层多次公开表达将公司打造为 1 万亿美元市值企业的长期雄心，相较目前约 200 亿美元市值蕴含约 50 倍的潜在增长空间。管理层的核心逻辑在于打造“一站式全能金融生活平台”，依托 100% 纯数字化的低成本结构省去实体网点开支，并将节省的成本反哺给用户体验与品牌建设，目标是将无辅助品牌知名度从 4% 提升至 30% 到 40% 以上。按其 2030 年远景规划，SoFi 计划将现有 1600 万名会员扩展至约 5000 万人，产品总数从约 2400 万个提升至 1.5 亿个，使单客平均使用产品数从约 1.5 个跃升至 3 个左右，进而通过交叉销售大幅降低获客成本并释放利润。 平台与科技叙事背后的放贷本质 (4:21) 尽管市场与管理层常将 SoFi 定位为轻资产“贷款撮合市场”与底层科技 SaaS 供应商，但现实财报与叙事存在明显脱节。在平台撮合端，最近季度贷款平台业务调整后收入同比仅增长 9%，一旦外部第三方机构买家在信贷紧缩周期离场，SoFi 就必须将贷款滞留在资产负债表上；在科技端，尽管整合了 Galileo 和 Technisys 并加速推出加密货币和 AI 银行服务，但因关键大客户流失，最近季度科技解决方案板块收入同比大跌 23%。财报表明，SoFi 盈利的核心支柱依然是传统放贷业务，最近季度贷款板块贡献了约 4 亿美元利润。公司主要通过吸纳储蓄资金发放高风险个人贷款及房屋贷款来赚取净息差，依然承担着实质性的信用与资产负债表风险。 估值压缩、股权稀释与高利率压制 (7:57) SoFi 股价近期的大幅回调主要由三大因素共振导致。首先，市场对高成长股的估值倍数进行了再定价，其市盈率从高位的 44 倍压缩至约 25 倍，对应约 2 倍有形账面价值；其次，公司去年底实施新股增发融资，导致稀释后总股本同比增加 14%，显著摊薄了现有股东的每股收益权益。在宏观层面，美国国债收益率攀升至 5% 且市场转向潜在加息预期，高利率不仅严重压抑了贷款再融资需求，还导致低息存量贷款账面价值缩水。同时，为了对抗传统银行，线上模式迫使 SoFi 必须维持高息揽储，推升了负债端资金成本，使得全年营收指引虽维持 32% 至 35% 的高增速，但整体盈利预期却基本停滞。 盈利指引距离万亿目标与安全边际 (15:42) 管理层预期每股收益将从当前的 0.60 美元以上增长至 2026 至 2028 年间的约 1.10 美元，增长动力寄托于再融资全美近 1 万亿美元优质信用卡债务、4000 亿美元学生贷再融资敞口及按揭房贷市场的扩张。但 Daniel 指出，即使 2028 年实现 1.10 美元 EPS，公司整体年盈利也仅约 15 亿美元，与万亿市值所需的长年无差错复合增长存在巨大鸿沟，这一愿景更像是 2035 年甚至 2040 年后的远期设想。Daniel 透露自己在市场中已找到估值仅 14 倍且增速超 50% 的其他银行标的；鉴于债市风暴对金融系统的冲击尚未在 SoFi 股价中完全计价，若未来股价随宏观压力回落至 10 美元附近（对应 0.60 美元 EPS 约为 16 倍市盈率），才将具备较为扎实的安全边际。 Daniel 总结认为，面对 SoFi 的宏大叙事，投资者应客观看待其高度依赖放贷息差与负债端高成本的现实，不宜盲目追高。在宏观高利率与债市压力逐步显现的过程中，保持耐心、坐看管理层落地执行并等待股价给出更优折扣，是更为理性的选择。

[4:21] Daniel: The whole marketplace business model is very tricky because you're dependent on the buyers to keep showing up. [0:00] Daniel: If the customers love it, eventually the business will follow. [6:31] Daniel: It's important to recognize there's always a difference between the story that you're hearing versus reality.

[0:00] I recently was talking with Denja, a member of the Unrivaled Investing Discord community, and he called out that he thought SoFi stock had 4x upside potential. And he's not alone in that the CEO of SoFi, Anthony Noto, has repeatedly called out that he believes SoFi will be a trillion dollar company. some day. probably not next year, especially given the fact that the market cap is currently around $20 billion. So this does suggest... huge upside potential. I mean, whether or not you're talking about 4x potential or 50x potential, I mean, that's really what Anthony Noto, the CEO, is talking about, saying, yeah, I think there is 50x potential over time to get to this trillion dollar value versus $20 billion market cap. So in this video, I'm going to explore their current valuation, my thoughts on their current business model, and what's driving them that gives the the CEO, Anthony Noto, confidence that there will be immense shareholder value creation over time with SoFi. As always, my name is Daniel. You're watching Unrivaled Investing. So let's explore what's going on. with So, first of all, it's important to understand... where we are on this path to a trillion dollars. And a lot of it will come from getting new members over time. i.e. new customers. They currently have around 16 million members. They've targeted aspirationally. by 2030 to be closer to 50 million members, and that the number of products will go from around 24 million products to around 150 million products. So that means going from about 1.5 products per member to, to around three products per member. So you will have customers that use a credit card, but then also have a brokerage statement. Or maybe you'll have someone that'll have a personal loan, then have a mortgage and a credit card. So looking at SoFi as having something that can offer a lot of different financial products, not just one or one and a half, which is where they currently are on a member basis and saying, yeah, we think we can get to three pretty confidently over time. At least that's their aspirational target is. So more members and more members using various different services. And so thinking about this path to $1 trillion valuation, it's not only winning new members, but it's an exploration of how are they going to win new members? an all-in-one platform. It's one app, a full financial life, whether or not it's investing, credit cards, banking, loans, it's all in one place. And they're trying to figure out how to make it as easy to use as possible and as friendly to use as possible. And also looking at it from the perspective of, hey, we have a low cost advantage because we're not building out physical branches. All that cost, yeah, we're not investing in that. This is 100% digital. And so we are going to be able to pass on those savings to customers, resulting in a better product, ideally a better experience, and also growing the brand awareness. Their goal is to get to 30 to 40%. unaided brand awareness goal. So that, that means people will recognize, Oh, so far that's, if I need some various different financial product, if people go to them first saying, Oh, I need a credit card. Oh, I need a loan. If you have that unaided brand awareness, they don't have to spend the marketing dollars. So that helps the margins. It just helps the flywheel over time. It helps the, that that's the dream. So starting with the, Hey, we're going to build members a bunch. And we're, by the way, because we have a lower cost structure, we can can understand this flywheel, then we say, hey, we own this whole tech... tech stock is tech stack. So we can offer all these different products, you know, whether or not it's loans or credit cards or various different types of loans or investing products. So you can understand there's a flywheel here going in terms of the potential and you're starting to see how it works. can play out. I mean, you've seen very fast customer growth over time from just around 5 million back in 2022 to closer to 15 million. Now, 16 million. Now you can see the brand awareness measurement improving significantly from around 4% to 10%, still a long way to go versus that 30% plus that they're targeting. And I, what I do like to see is that they are winning some, you know, best bank awards and customer satisfaction scores that does suggest, Hey, when customers love it, Thank you. can follow. You know, eventually, if the customers love it, eventually the business will follow. That's at least the theory that I like to follow. Another thought on the path to $1 trillion is thinking about the business model transformation. Traditionally, when you're talking about lenders, it's a tricky business model because more loans require more funding or more equity capital. Whereas they're saying, yeah, we're going to be a platform. So we can not only make new loans, but we're going to work with a marketplace of maybe it's insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, pension funds. We're going to be the originator. And we're going to find people to buy them. And maybe it's for personal reasons. Maybe it's educational loans, mortgages, small businesses. The challenge with this [5:00] Is that... it's still tied to the economic cycle. If you have, for example, all of a sudden... There's a credit tightening process. You could have the insurance company say, hey, I want to step away. I want to walk away. So the whole marketplace business model is very tricky because you're dependent on the buyers to keep showing up. Otherwise, you have to hold it on your balance sheet. And if you have to hold it on your balance sheet, you go back to this traditional lender business model. And that's frankly that if you study the history of finance, that is how these types of companies have blown up in the past. Is they make a bunch of new loans. They're saying, hey, our origination business is doing great. And then all of a sudden one day the buyers don't show up. oh dear gosh, how are we gonna finance this? And now we're holding, Holding on to a bunch of loans. But clearly, this is their business model. They're comfortable being a bank. It's this origination is a... It's a potential growth driver for the business that they've talked about, an asset, more of an asset-light growth driver because they're not holding on to the assets in theory. They're selling it to these various different players. However, the reality is that so far it's not really what's driving the business. The loan platform business, quarterly adjusted revenue, only grew 9% year over year. So this is still – If you're thinking about it, this is an aspiration. It's still really closer to this traditional lender aspect of making loans, holding on to them, eventually selling them. in terms of fees for selling it, that's not really what's driving the business here. Another thought on the path to $1 trillion is a lot of people have talked about how SoFi is a tech company, and I'd argue it is. And you've seen several different acquisitions, Galileo, Technisys, their whole tech solutions, their tech stack. And I can understand the appeal here. You know, they're saying SoFi can benefit when consumers choose its app and when other companies use its infrastructure. Because they're saying, why should someone else have to build this whole infrastructure for banking, investing, loans, credit card products? We can help other fintech companies because we've already built the stack. However, when you look at the actual revenue figure here, once again, reality is a different picture. You can see the reality check is that the revenue in the most recent quarter actually declined 23% because they had one large customer. leave. So it's important to recognize there's always a difference between the story that you're hearing versus reality. And so, you know, we're going through it, but there are some advantages with having this conversation. single tech stack that they own and the appeal of being able to launch more and more new products very quickly. And you can see they're talking about crypto, SoFi USD, talking about big banking solutions using AI as a coach, talking about small business loans that they recently launched. So they can build and launch a lot of new products. And frankly, I like to see the velocity of new offerings. It suggests a healthy company. These are the data points, what I like to see. But then the flip side is there's clear reasons why SoFi stock has declined. One of which is that at the end of last year, it started at a rich valuation and the valuation came down. So it went from 44 times earnings to around 25 times earnings. That's a big part of the reason why the stock prices come down. And as I've talked about repeatedly, there are really three reasons why stock prices, you know, drive what drives returns over time. It's valuation. It's the cash flow to shareholders. And it's the fundamentals of the business. Any given year, that valuation fluctuation, that's going to be what drives a lot of the attention and heartburn or joy that you feel. And a lot of what's gone on this past year is that valuation. Longer term, though, over a decade plus perspective, it really is the fundamentals. And that's what I like to see. That is a favorable point for SoFi, is overall the fundamentals seem to be heading in the right direction. Another key reason why SoFi stock declined is shareholder dilution, where they lost. had a new share issuance at the end of last year. And as a result, their diluted share count is up significantly, up 14% year over year. So if you owned... If you didn't buy more shares, your relative ownership of the SoFi Pie actually declined by quite a bit. in the past year. So that is important to think about. Just they did dilute you a bit. And I'm not a fan of this. Hopefully that was the last of their significant stock. offerings i think a third key reason why the stock has declined so far this year is while they did raise their guidance and they are expecting around 32 to 35 percent growth in terms of revenue around five billion dollars in revenue they kept their earnings around flat a large part of that is the fact that they went from expecting some rate cuts this year to rate hikes and rate hikes largely hurt So far, one of which is valuation. When you're thinking about higher interest rates, all of a sudden you're saying, well, wait a second. With a higher interest rate, you know, I've had this has been a conversation in our discord. Folks saying, Daniel, is now the time to start buying bonds at, you know, 5%, 6% type yields? [10:00] because you're getting U.S. Treasuries at 5%. And that's a whole separate conversation. But as those rates go higher, that creates pressure on growth stocks like SoFi. So big part of the reason why you see that valuation go from 44 times to 25 times is that dynamic, is higher interest rates creating pressure on valuation. But there are real fundamental challenges as well. For example, with higher rates, it makes it harder to make a compelling refinancing argument. that the loans they may have made at a lower rate, all of a sudden, if you're in a new higher rate environment, the value of those existing loans, drop. And then also the cost structure for SoFi might move higher in that SoFi, once again, yes, their cost structure is that their asset light and that they don't have the physical branches, but A large part of attracting deposits saying we're going to pay out a good rate. You're not just going to put your money in some sort of physical deposit somewhere and not get anything like the major banks are doing. But here we have to pay closer to much fair market price for those deposits. And as rates have moved higher and as the Fed raises high... raises rates, that's going to directly impact their cost structure. So there are real... fundamental aspects hurting SoFi. And that's part of the reason why the stock price has dropped. So what are my thoughts on SoFi's current valuation, you know, where you're looking around $20 billion market cap, still not dirt cheap around 25 times adjusted earnings, you know, around two times a tangible book value. So what are my thoughts? First of all, please recognize none of this is financial advices for educational purposes only. Also a quick plug, Joe R wrote, following along with your investing journey. This follows Sebastian. who shared on our exclusive Discord, thanks for giving us an affordable platform to not only follow your investment ideas, but more importantly, ask questions along the way. If you're interested in learning more, check out Unrivaled Investing for real money portfolio updates, an exclusive video each month walking through my top ideas and also weekly research for compelling ideas. And I also recently launched a completely free course on how I'm looking for potential multibaggers. in four years. So if you're interested in understanding my framework for finding those potential multibackers, once again, that course is completely free to check out. When I'm thinking about SoFi, you know, relative to the unrivaled investing checklist, I think it has a lot of what I'm looking for. I mean, we've talked about in prior videos how Anthony Noto had been buying stock, which is what I like to see. In this video, we're talking more about the obvious growth, you know, aspects, the win-win aspects where customers like it and they're getting, let's say, more favorable rates than if you're depositing it at a physical branch and maybe you're not getting a very compelling interest rate. SoFi is winning. And thinking about the business, with any bank or really any financial institution, a key aspect that you need to think about is the culture. Because you need to figure out, will this bank work? financial company blow up in the future. and culture is the way to size that up. Oftentimes, it requires some sort of mosaic analysis where you're looking at a lot of different data points. And seeing Anthony Noto buy shares over time, seeing the fact that they have historically marked their loans and then were able to sell them at a higher price, these are favorable data points. So I would say this points in the direction that makes me more constructive about SoFi over time. but When I'm looking at SoFi, it is important to recognize, yes, management's talking about, yes, we're becoming much more diversified. We have all these different products, all these different services. It is important to see. that lending is still driving the vast majority of the underlying profit for this business. And the most recent quarter is around $400 million in contribution profit. And that just dramatically more than everything else. You know, people talk about, oh, look at this tech platform. It is the tech platform is nothing relative to their lending segment and their lending segment is predominantly personal loans, and that's still growing at a very fast clip. Student loans. And home loans. The amount of home loans that they've kept on their balance sheet has grown exponentially just in the past year. So it is important to see that. But this is really a lending business. This is about... making loans, making personal loans, which is higher risk, keeping that on their balance sheet and hoping to sell that at some point. They – They're going to mark it as, hey, the personal loans are available for sale and the home loans we're keeping on our balance sheet. At the end of the day, it's on your balance sheet. You may have aspirations of selling it, but it's not. that is the business [15:00] This model is we make this loan, then we sell it. But... The reality is there's a... the lending aspect of we're borrowing... you know, effectively from our depositors, taking those funds, paying the depositors a set rate, and then putting the financing into this personal loan and getting this very high rate. That spread, that is driving the majority of the profits here. So it is important to recognize. that aspect of this business model. And it does make it riskier than saying, hey, we have this marketplace and we're just getting these commission type fees. That is not the way you should be thinking about this business. So it is important to recognize that. It's heavily a traditional lender in a sense. So thinking about the business, management has called out their expectations for continued strong growth in the years ahead and continued margin improvement, continued earnings improvement. They're saying we're going to go from 60 cents plus in earnings this year to closer to a buck 10 in the next two years. Next two, three years from 2026 to 2028, which is what I like to see. And they talk about a lot of things that are driving this growth, refinancing the nearly $1 trillion of prime U.S. credit card debt with SoFi personal loans, capturing an approximate $400 billion student loan refinance opportunity at current rates, gaining share in the massive home loan market. Clearly, they're showing signs of that. So. I understand these growth opportunities. This makes sense. And so far their results point to the fact that they can continue to do it. That said, uh, This buck 10 in earnings power for 2028 suggests once again, around $1.5 billion in earnings. So that is a long way to go for a trillion dollar prospect. So I think the trillion dollars that really is aspirational, like a 20, 35, 40, maybe longer. You know, it requires continued hyper growth. You know, there's going to be some setbacks along the way. There will be challenges. So I'm not even thinking about that 50 X potential. You know, my... A lot has to go right for that relative to them saying, hey, we can get to $1.5 billion in earnings in the next two years. So my inclination thinking about this, there's a few different thoughts I have. First of all, overall so far, their execution has actually been quite good. So you need to give them marks and, you know, credit for that. The challenge is that a lot of folks just get super excited about the stock and so they push it up to really lofty valuations and that is part of the challenge is that a lot of people are digesting this past year going, oopsie-dipsie, maybe I shouldn't have pressed that buy button so many times. I think that's what happened for a lot of folks is they said, oh, wait a second, 45 times earnings, maybe 25 times, maybe 15 times. I mean, full context. I recently bought a you know bank stock that was growing faster than this, so growing over 50% and was trading at 14 times earnings. So it's, yes, very different geographic risks. Yes, different credit types risks, but When I can see something that can pass my checklist with, you know, management alignment and obvious growth and similar business models, similar, not perfect apples to apples, but I can see that. And you can find those types of opportunities where you're saying, hey, this is growing 20% plus. You know, it makes me think you might be able to get a better price for SoFi. That's my impression, especially as we've seen rates really rip up in the last few months. I mean, there has been this almost parabolic move higher in U.S. Treasury rates. I think the pain from that really hasn't been felt yet and would not surprise me at all if... The challenges that we talked about earlier in this video of higher rates and how that impacts so far, I think that could be priced into the stock in the quarters ahead. I don't think it's fully priced in right now. especially how fast and how much treasuries have moved so far. And there's a chance it's not done. There's a good chance that that bond bear market is not over. So if that's, you know, just picking up steam, good arguments that it is, then you might be able to get SoFi closer to $10 per share in the future. And keep in mind, $10 per share at that $0.60 earnings power, that's closer to 16 times earnings. So still arguably not crazy deep value sort of territory. It's more sort of a, this is a compelling growth trend. and a reasonable valuation multiple, but with real economic risks, as this is a personal loan business predominantly. So... My inclination is to... sit back, relax, enjoy, and watching SoFi Stock execute, and maybe consider picking up, you know, shares, [20:00] If there's, let's say, some haircuts in the future, maybe I miss it. That's okay. There are other opportunities. There's thousands of companies out there. There are other companies, as I already called out, where if you wait for it, you can find something that's trading cheaper and growing faster. So I think it's about having the patience to wait for things that you like. But look, everyone's investing's journey is different. I share mine at unrivaledinvesting.com. I hope this video has been helpful for you. If so, please make a point of hitting that thumbs up. button. I like what Anthony Noto is building. I think he has a clear strategy for continued growth. I think that trillion dollars is a little bit aspirational, but there clearly is a playbook for continued shareholder value creation and to be able to build a much larger franchise over time. So I'm excited to watch them do that. Thanks so much for tuning in.