AI Seed Probes Deepen Fermi Paradox as Travel Costs Plunge

Sabine Hossenfelder

Miniature autonomous craft eliminate the biological and economic limits of interstellar expansion, dismantling theories that advanced intelligences retreat into virtual reality and leaving the absence of alien artifacts far harder to justify.

AI-assisted summary of The Fermi Paradox Just Got Much Worse — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-08-06

Key ideas

A new paper challenges the introversion solution to the Fermi Paradox, arguing artificial intelligence and robotics make interstellar exploration vastly cheaper and more practical rather than obsolete. (2:45)
A tiny 10-kilogram autonomous seed probe traveling at just 1% the speed of light could traverse the Milky Way within 10 million years, which is less than 0.1% of the galaxy's lifespan. (2:45)
If autonomous robotic exploration is viable, SETI research should shift focus from distant radio signals and Dyson spheres toward searching for physical probes hidden within our own solar system. (4:24)
Sabine Hossenfelder rates the paper a '10 out of 10 on the bullshit meter,' emphasizing that while the logic is sound, it remains philosophical and economic speculation rather than empirical physics. (4:24)

Detailed notes

## Background Published on YouTube on August 6, 2026, by science communicator Sabine Hossenfelder, this video examines a paper challenging a popular resolution to the Fermi Paradox. According to the video's description, while many assume advanced civilizations develop artificial intelligence and lose interest in physical space travel, the featured research argues that AI, robotics, and cheap probes actually make interstellar exploration dramatically easier, making the silence of the cosmos an even greater mystery.

## TL;DR Hossenfelder analyzes a paper that challenges the "introversion hypothesis" of the Fermi Paradox, which suggests that superintelligent species choose virtual realities or computational hibernation over space travel. The paper posits that AI and automated manufacturing would instead drastically lower the cost of exploration through lightweight, autonomous 10-kilogram seed probes capable of crossing the galaxy in roughly 10 million years. Because this timeframe represents a tiny fraction of the Milky Way's lifespan, any prior intelligent species should have already saturated the galaxy with probes, significantly deepening the paradox. Consequently, Hossenfelder suggests that humanity may need to pivot from scanning the stars for radio signals to actively searching for physical alien hardware within our own solar system.

## Atmosphere & style The presentation carries Hossenfelder’s signature blend of deadpan skepticism, intellectual curiosity, and sharp, dry wit. Pacing alternates briskly between cosmological thought experiments and playful comedic digressions, such as self-deprecating remarks about watering house plants, a staged phone call with Elon Musk, and an unapologetic "10 out of 10 on the bullshit meter" rating. Watching it feels like a refreshingly unpretentious and grounded deconstruction of futuristic sci-fi tropes, balancing rigorous scientific reasoning with internet-savvy satire.

## Bulletin - [02:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=165s) A new paper challenges the introversion solution to the Fermi Paradox, arguing artificial intelligence and robotics make interstellar exploration vastly cheaper and more practical rather than obsolete. - [02:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=165s) A tiny 10-kilogram autonomous seed probe traveling at just 1% the speed of light could traverse the Milky Way within 10 million years, which is less than 0.1% of the galaxy's lifespan. - [04:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=264s) If autonomous robotic exploration is viable, SETI research should shift focus from distant radio signals and Dyson spheres toward searching for physical probes hidden within our own solar system. - [04:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=264s) Sabine Hossenfelder rates the paper a '10 out of 10 on the bullshit meter,' emphasizing that while the logic is sound, it remains philosophical and economic speculation rather than empirical physics.

## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=0s) The Fermi Paradox asks why Earth has detected no signs of alien civilizations despite the Milky Way containing hundreds of billions of stars and older habitable planets. - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=0s) A prevalent hypothesis suggests advanced civilizations turn inward, replacing physical space travel with virtual reality simulations due to high costs and inefficiencies. - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=0s) The aestivation hypothesis posits that superintelligent systems may hibernate for billions of years until cosmic cooling makes thermodynamic computation cheaper. - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=0s) The digital introversion argument creates an ironic paradox for modern tech leaders who champion both artificial intelligence and physical space colonization. - [02:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=165s) A recent analysis argues that AI, automated manufacturing, and robotics eliminate the need for heavy, life-supported biological spacecraft, dramatically lowering exploration costs. - [02:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=165s) Advanced artificial intelligences would still possess rational motivations to explore space, including safeguarding against planetary extinction, archiving knowledge, and conducting empirical science. - [02:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=165s) An autonomous 10 kg seed probe traveling at 0.01c would take roughly 10,000 years to cover 100 light-years and 10 million years to cross the entire galactic disk. - [02:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=165s) Because 10 million years is negligible compared to the Milky Way's billions of years of history, the galaxy should already be saturated with robotic probes, worsening the paradox. - [04:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=264s) Technosignature hunts may fail because they focus on radio transmissions or megastructures rather than robotic probes concealed as asteroids or meteorites in our solar system. - [04:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=264s) Hossenfelder categorizes the research as philosophical conjecture rather than empirical hard science, while acknowledging it reflects growing serious interest in extraterrestrial technosignatures.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=0s) The Fermi Paradox and the "Virtual Reality" Objection

The Fermi Paradox poses a stubborn question: with hundreds of billions of stars in the Milky Way and planets forming in habitable zones billions of years before Earth, why haven't we detected any signs of intelligent life? Given the vast timeline of the cosmos, alien civilizations should have had ample opportunity to populate the galaxy, engineer visible megastructures, or at least leave detectable technological traces. While common hypotheses suggest that the emergence of life is extraordinarily improbable or habitable worlds are vanishingly rare, another widely discussed idea posits that advanced civilizations simply lose the desire to expand into space. According to this line of reasoning, physical space travel is inefficient, astronomically expensive, and fundamentally pointless. As Sabine Hossenfelder puts it: “Humans currently attempt to travel in space for a rational reason, so the argument goes, because of national pride because they believe that more humans are better than fewer humans or because they don't fully realize just how incredibly large the distances are between solar systems and how long it would take us to travel there.”

Advocates of this hypothesis argue that once a civilization develops artificial intelligence, it outgrows these biological and ideological impulses. Instead of consuming unsustainable amounts of resources to colonize distant star systems, an advanced intelligence would choose to remain comfortably on its home world, exploring the cosmos virtually. A related concept in the literature suggests that superintelligent systems might simply enter a state of dormancy (aestivation) for billions of years, waiting until the universe cools down so that computation becomes thermodynamically more efficient—a long-range planning horizon that Hossenfelder dryly contrasts with her own inability to reliably remember to water her house plants. She notes that this argument creates an ironic contradiction for techno-optimists: “It would lead you to expect that at some point Grok will begin to argue against SpaceX.”

- **Galactic scale:** The Milky Way contains hundreds of billions of stars, many hosting rocky planets in their habitable zones that predate Earth by billions of years. - **The introversion hypothesis:** Technological species transition into digital substrates, substituting physical expansion with simulated realities because interstellar colonization yields poor returns on investment. - **Thermodynamic delay:** The hypothesis that computing civilizations hibernate for billions of years until cosmic expansion lowers ambient temperatures, reducing the thermodynamic cost of computation.

---

[02:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=165s) Tiny Probes, Self-Replication, and the Deepening Paradox

A recent paper challenges this assumption of technological introversion, arguing that artificial intelligence does not render interstellar exploration obsolete—it makes it vastly cheaper and more practical. Rather than requiring enormous, hyper-fast vessels burdened with life support systems for biological crews, exploration can be handed over to fleets of small, expendable, autonomous spacecraft manufactured in automated orbital or extraterrestrial factories. As Hossenfelder highlights: “He says that once a civilization has artificial intelligence, robots, and space factories, space exploration doesn't require big and fast machines.” Such robotic craft require neither oxygen, food, nor “motivational posters,” completely upending the economic calculation of interstellar travel.

The author argues that even an artificial superintelligence would retain rational imperatives for physical space exploration: ensuring species survival against existential planetary catastrophes, preserving accumulated knowledge across galactic repositories, and gathering empirical scientific observations. By running conservative order-of-magnitude estimates, the paper illustrates how dramatically this worsens the Fermi Paradox. A tiny 10-kilogram automated "seed probe" cruising at just 1% the speed of light ($0.01c$) would traverse 100 light-years in roughly 10,000 years. At that steady pace, it would cross the entire galactic disk in approximately 10 million years—a span that represents less than one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) of the Milky Way's lifespan. Consequently, any civilization achieving this level of robotics within the past several billion years should already have saturated the galaxy with autonomous probes.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Contrasting AI Impacts on the Fermi Paradox accDescr: Flowchart comparing the classic introversion hypothesis with the new seed probe model of interstellar exploration.

subgraph Classic["Classic AI Introversion Model"] A["Development of Advanced AI"] --> B["Recognizes Space Travel as Inefficient"] B --> C["Turns Inward to Virtual Realities"] C --> D["Civilization Stays Home (Silent Galaxy)"] end

subgraph NewModel["New Automated Seed Probe Model"] E["Development of Advanced AI & Robotics"] --> F["Miniaturization & Autonomous Probes"] F --> G["Rational Drivers: Survival & Science"] G --> H["Probes Colonize Galaxy in ~10 Myr"] end ```

- **Seed probe parameters:** A 10 kg autonomous craft traveling at $0.01c$ (one-hundredth the speed of light). - **Travel timeline:** 10,000 years to travel 100 light-years; roughly 10 million years to sweep across the Milky Way's galactic disc. - **Deepened contradiction:** Because 10 million years is a blink of an eye compared to the age of the galaxy, the absence of physical artifacts in our neighborhood becomes much harder to justify.

---

[04:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=264s) Rethinking Technosignatures and Alien Probes

If the autonomous probe hypothesis is sound, humanity’s failure to encounter extraterrestrials may simply be the result of searching for the wrong signatures. Historically, SETI and technosignature research have focused heavily on sweeping the skies for electromagnetic transmissions or hunting for stellar megastructures like Dyson spheres that capture starlight and dim parent stars. Hossenfelder suggests that scientists should pivot inward: “Maybe we should instead make more effort to look for alien probes in the solar system.” Small robotic probes could easily be floating undetected in our cosmic backyard, masquerading as unremarkable asteroids or meteorites, or accounting for some fraction of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) that are typically dismissed as camera errors.

Reflecting on the study's overall scientific rigor, Hossenfelder humorously rates it a "10 out of 10 on the bullshit meter." She clarifies that this rating does not mean the author’s logic is incorrect or faulty, but rather reflects the reality that the paper represents cultural and philosophical speculation rather than empirical, hard physics. Even so, it underscores a major cultural shift over the past decade regarding how seriously science treats extraterrestrial possibilities. To underscore the irony of modern space barons simultaneously pushing for artificial intelligence and Mars colonies, she cuts to a comedic skit answering a phone call from Elon Musk, quipping: “Well, I guess the first thing they do would be to get super rich and start a space travel company and build AI and robots. Oh, wait.”

- **Technosignature shift:** Moving beyond radio and optical transmissions toward looking for non-biological physical artifacts within the solar system. - **Alternative explanations:** Uncataloged hardware could blend into the background as anomalous meteorites, near-Earth asteroids, or sensor anomalies. - **Speculative status:** The work operates largely as rational socio-technological conjecture rather than an empirical physics proof.

---

[06:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=365s) Sponsor: Ground News and Media Bias Analysis

Switching gears, Hossenfelder shares her daily news routine, noting that sorting through duplicate headlines and assessing publication reliability is often an exhausting chore. She highlights Ground News, an aggregator designed to simplify this process by gathering international reporting into concise, fact-checked summaries that let readers bypass sensationalized framing. As Hossenfelder notes regarding media coverage: “You can see at one glance that this was basically a center-right story with little interest on the political left.”

Using the incident of SpaceX rocket debris colliding with the Moon as a real-world case study, she demonstrates how media bias visibly shapes reporting. Left-leaning publications heavily highlighted the reaction of disappointed investors, whereas right-leaning outlets framed the event as an exciting spectacle paired with ideological critiques. Ground News flags the geographic origin and ownership of the outlets—showing that coverage for that specific event was driven largely by United Kingdom publications—and offers a “Blindspot” feature that isolates stories reported exclusively by one side of the political aisle. She concludes by offering viewers a 40% discount on the Ground News Vantage Plan via her dedicated URL and QR code.

- **Featured case study:** SpaceX rocket stages crashing into the Moon, showcasing a sharp divergence between center-right interest and left-wing framing. - **Analytical tools:** Bias comparisons, publication ownership breakdowns, geographic sourcing, and fact-checking metrics visible at a glance. - **The Blindspot tool:** Identifies major news stories that are disproportionately covered or completely ignored by either the left or the right. - **Offer details:** A 40% discount on the full-featured Vantage plan via `ground.news/sabine`.

## Notable quotes > [04:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0&t=264s) Maybe we should instead make more effort to look for alien probes in the solar system. — Sabine Hossenfelder

## Mentioned Fermi Paradox, Sabine Hossenfelder, Grok, SpaceX, Elon Musk, SETI, Ground News, Moon

## Video description Go to https://ground.news/sabine to get 40% off the Vantage plan and see through sensationalized reporting. Stay fully informed on events around the world with Ground News.

One popular answer to the Fermi Paradox is that advanced civilizations develop artificial intelligence and simply lose interest in space travel. A researcher now argues that's backwards: AI, robots, and cheap probes make space exploration easier, not pointless. Which means the paradox gets worse, not better. Let's take a look.

Correction: The author is not a physicist, but has a PhD in economics. Sorry for the mixup.

#science #sciencenews #physics #space #aliens

Paper: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.13914

👕T-shirts, mugs, posters and more: ➜ https://sabines-store.dashery.com/ 💌 Support me on Donorbox ➜ https://donorbox.org/swtg 👉 Transcript with links to references on Patreon ➜ https://www.patreon.com/Sabine 📝 Transcripts and written news on Substack ➜ https://sciencewtg.substack.com/ 📩 Free weekly science newsletter ➜ https://sabinehossenfelder.com/newsletter/ 👂 Audio only podcast ➜ https://open.spotify.com/show/0MkNfXlKnMPEUMEeKQYmYC 🔗 Join this channel to get access to perks ➜ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1yNl2E66ZzKApQdRuTQ4tw/join 📚 Buy my book ➜ https://amzn.to/3HSAWJW

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MgHZ_oGl0)

中文简报

星际旅行成本骤降，AI种子探测器加深费米悖论微型自主航天器消除了星际扩张的生物与经济限制，瓦解了高等智慧文明会退缩至虚拟现实的理论，使外星造物的缺失变得更加难以解释。 Hossenfelder分析了一篇论文，该论文对费米悖论的“内向假说”（该假说认为超智慧物种会选择虚拟现实或计算冬眠，而非太空旅行）提出了质疑。论文指出，AI和自动化制造将通过轻量化、自主运行且重约10千克的种子探测器，大幅降低探索成本；这些探测器能在约1000万年内横跨银河系。由于这一时间跨度仅占银河系寿命的一小部分，任何先前存在的智慧物种理应早已让探测器遍布银河系，从而极大地加深了该悖论。因此，Hossenfelder提出，人类可能需要将搜寻重点从扫视恒星寻找无线电信号，转向在太阳系内部积极搜寻物理形式的外星硬件。一篇新论文对费米悖论的内向假说解决方案提出挑战，认为人工智能和机器人技术会让星际探索变得更加低廉和实用，而非过时。 (2:45) 一个仅重10千克、以光速的1%飞行的自主种子探测器，可在1000万年内横跨银河系，这还不到银河系寿命的0.1%。 (2:45) 如果自主机器人探索切实可行，SETI研究应将重心从遥远的无线电信号和戴森球，转向搜寻隐藏在太阳系内部的实体探测器。 (4:24) Sabine Hossenfelder将这篇论文评为“扯淡指数10分（满分10分）”，并强调尽管其逻辑自洽，但这仍属于哲学和经济学层面的推测，而非实证物理学。 (4:24)

Reading summary

Sabine Hossenfelder examines a paper arguing that advanced artificial intelligence makes interstellar exploration vastly cheaper rather than obsolete, significantly worsening the Fermi Paradox by demonstrating how rapidly autonomous probes could saturate the galaxy. The Introversion Hypothesis and Its Flaws (0:00) The Fermi Paradox asks why humanity has found no signs of intelligent life despite hundreds of billions of stars in the Milky Way and planets forming billions of years before Earth. A prominent proposed resolution suggests that civilizations lose the desire for physical space expansion once they develop artificial intelligence. Proponents of this introversion view argue that interstellar travel is economically inefficient, leading advanced intelligences to remain on their home worlds to explore via virtual simulations or enter billions of years of hibernation until cosmic expansion lowers ambient temperatures for more thermodynamically efficient computation. How Autonomous Probes Accelerate Galactic Expansion (2:45) A recent paper challenges the introversion model by proposing that artificial intelligence, robotics, and extraterrestrial automated factories remove the need for massive, fast vessels with life support systems. The paper argues that superintelligent systems would retain rational imperatives to explore, including species survival, the preservation of knowledge, and scientific observation. Because uncrewed probes require neither biological sustenance nor high speeds, the logistical barrier to interstellar traversal collapses. The Deepening Timeline Contradiction (2:45) Using conservative order-of-magnitude estimates, the paper illustrates how autonomous technology intensifies the paradox. A 10-kilogram automated seed probe traveling at just 1% the speed of light would cross 100 light-years in roughly 10,000 years and sweep across the entire Milky Way disc in about 10 million years. Because 10 million years represents less than one-tenth of one percent of the galaxy's lifespan, any civilization reaching this level of robotics within the past several billion years should have already populated the galaxy with autonomous hardware. Rethinking Technosignatures and Solar System Searches (4:24) If autonomous robotic exploration is viable, humanity may simply be hunting for the wrong signatures by prioritizing radio transmissions or massive Dyson spheres. Hossenfelder notes that scientists could pivot to searching within our own solar system, where small alien probes might exist undetected as anomalous meteorites, near-Earth asteroids, or unidentified phenomena. Hossenfelder cautions that while the logic remains compelling, the paper represents speculative socio-technological conjecture rather than empirical hard physics, leaving unresolved whether humanity has overlooked nearby robotic hardware or if advanced intelligent life is truly exceedingly rare.

精炼阅读摘要

物理学家 Sabine Hossenfelder 讨论了一项针对费米悖论（Fermi Paradox）的最新研究：该理论反驳了“高级文明必然转向虚拟现实而停止物理扩张”的传统假说，指出人工智能与自动化技术反而会让星际探索变得极度廉价，使得银河系本应布满微型自主探测器，从而让地外文明信号的缺席变得更为难以解释。内向假说与数字虚拟化的传统视角 (0:00) 费米悖论指出了宇宙尺度的剧烈矛盾：银河系包含数千亿颗恒星，许多宜居带岩石行星比地球早形成数十亿年，但人类至今未发现外星智能生命的物理痕迹或工程迹象。长期以来，解释这种沉默的一个主流观点是“技术内向假说”（introversion hypothesis）。该理论认为，智慧物种在研发出高级人工智能后，会抛弃源于生物本能、国家荣誉感或盲目繁衍的扩张冲动；由于恒星际距离极其遥远且实体航行成本高昂，超级智能文明更倾向于留在母星，通过构建数字虚拟现实或模拟宇宙来进行无休止的内部探索。此外，相关学术文献还提出了“夏眠假说”（aestivation hypothesis），推测计算文明可能会选择休眠数十亿年，等待宇宙膨胀降低整体环境温度，以便在热力学层面大幅削减计算成本。Hossenfelder 指出，这种推论对当代的技术乐观主义者构成了讽刺的反差——如果超级智能的理性终点是认定实体太空旅行毫无意义，那么未来的人工智能系统甚至可能会反过来阻止人类自身雄心勃勃的星际殖民计划。微型自主探测器对费米悖论的深化 (2:45) 近期的一篇学术论文直接挑战了“人工智能导致文明内缩”的观点，认为人工智能与地外自动化工厂不仅没有让星际物理探索过时，反而从根本上消除了其高昂的经济门槛。探索任务完全不需要建造体积极其庞大、必须配备复杂维生系统以支持脆弱生物宇航员的巨型飞船，而是可以彻底交由无需氧气和食物供应、在轨道工厂规模化生产的小型自主机器人飞船完成。该研究强调，即便是人工超级智能，也具备进行实体星际探索的理性动力：包括分散母星面临的灭绝性灾难风险、在银河系各处建立知识储备库，以及获取第一手经验科学观测数据。论文通过数量级估算指出，一个仅重 10 千克的微型自动化“种子探测器”（seed probe），即便仅以光速的 1%（0.01c）飞行，穿越 100 光年也仅需约 10,000 年。以此速度，探测器编队横跨整个银河系圆盘大约只需 1,000 万年——这一时间跨度还不到银河系总寿命的千分之一（0.1%）。因此，如果过去数十亿年间曾有任何文明掌握该技术，银河系现在理应已经被海量微型探测器所饱和，这令“大沉默”现象在逻辑上更加难以自圆其说。技术印记转向与实证科学的边界 (4:24) 基于微型探测器模型的推演，地外文明搜寻（SETI）在过去数十年里可能一直在寻找错误的技术印记（technosignatures）。以往的研究往往将重心放在监测深空无线电射电信号，或者搜寻能够大范围遮蔽恒星光芒的宏观戴森球（Dyson sphere）结构。Hossenfelder 指出，新研究提示科学界应将注意力转向太阳系内部：这些微型人造硬件极有可能潜伏在近地空间中，在外观上伪装成普通的陨石或小行星，甚至可能解释了一小部分被归咎于仪器故障的不明异常现象（UAP）。对于该论文本身的科学性质，Hossenfelder 幽默地给出了“胡扯指数 10 分（满分 10 分）”的评价，但她澄清这并不意味着论文的逻辑推导存在硬伤，而是表明该研究属于高度假说性的社会技术推演，而非严格的经验物理学证据。尽管如此，这种理论探讨反映了近十年来科学界对地外探索范式认知的深刻转变，说明寻找外星遗迹的工作可能需要从深空观测转向对本地太阳系环境的细微排查。无论是假定高级文明必然沉溺于虚拟现实的“内向假说”，还是认为自主探测器会在极短时间内渗透银河系的“自动化扩张模型”，目前均属于缺乏观测验证的技术哲学推演；在人类具备对太阳系微小天体进行全面高精度物理鉴别能力之前，费米悖论的加剧依然停留在理论争鸣阶段。

Source quotes

[4:24] Sabine Hossenfelder: Maybe we should instead make more effort to look for alien probes in the solar system.

Original transcript

[0:00] The Fermi paradox just got so much worse. One of the most plausible explanations for why we've [0:08] not yet heard of other intelligent species has been that technological civilizations eventually [0:13] develop artificially intelligent systems and it's not intelligent to populate the galaxy. [0:19] They lose interest basically. But in a new paper, a physicist now argues quite convincingly I think [0:25] that this is wrong. This isn't just interesting because of the Fermi paradox, but because it [0:31] generally tells us how our attitude to space travel has been changing. The Fermi paradox is [0:38] the question of why we haven't yet found aliens. The Milky Way has hundreds of billions of stars. [0:44] We now know that planets are common and that many planets are quite plausibly in the habitable zones [0:50] of their stars. Indeed, many of those planets should have formed billions of years before Earth. [0:56] So why haven't we heard of any other intelligent species? Other civilization should have had plenty [1:02] of time to spread through the galaxy, build visible technology, or at least leave traces, [1:07] but we haven't heard or seen anything from anyone. There have been lots of different explanations, [1:13] for example, that the emergence of life is just incredibly unlikely or that habitable [1:19] planets are much rarer than we think. But one of the explanations that's attracted the most [1:25] attention is that advanced civilizations simply lose interest in space travel because it's on a [1:31] basic level dumb. Space travel is expensive and inefficient and just exactly what is the purpose [1:38] anyway. Humans currently attempt to travel in space for a rational reason, so the argument goes, [1:45] because of national pride because they believe that more humans are better than fewer humans [1:50] or because they don't fully realize just how incredibly large the distances are between solar [1:56] systems and how long it would take us to travel there. But once a civilization develops artificial [2:02] intelligence, they grow out of these silly ideas, so the argument goes, and instead they make their [2:08] life cozy on their home planet space traveling in virtual reality. Populating the galaxy requires [2:14] too many resources with little result and is ultimately not sustainable. A related argument has [2:20] it that civilizations just take it slowly for some billion billion years because computation becomes [2:26] thermodynamically easier then. Quite the argument seeing that I can't plan ahead enough to reliably [2:33] water the plants. In any case, I've always found this an interesting argument because it basically [2:38] pitches Elon Musk against himself. It would lead you to expect that at some point Grok will begin [2:45] to argue against Space X. Okay, but now here comes the new paper. The author argues that this earlier [2:53] argument is fundamentally flawed. He says that once a civilization has artificial intelligence, [2:59] robots, and space factories, space exploration doesn't require big and fast machines. It can [3:05] be done with plenty of small, cheap spacecraft, and with machines that need neither food nor air [3:12] nor motivational posters. And that just makes the Fermi paradox so much worse because now [3:17] you have to ask not just well why haven't we received any electromagnetic signal from the [3:23] aliens but why have we not found any of their space probes? Why are they not here? The author [3:31] gives multiple reasons for why space exploration is rational. Most importantly the preservation of [3:37] the species and possibly other species, knowledge preservation and scientific observation. If the [3:42] cost of small probes is small compared with the value of these factors, then it makes sense. The [3:49] author then also offers some estimates to show how his argument makes the Fermi paradox worse. [3:57] He considers a 10 kilogram seed probe traveling at 0.01 times the speed of light. At that speed, [4:04] it crosses 100 light years in about 10,000 years and the galactic disc in about 10 million years. [4:11] That's less than 1/10 of 1% of the age of the galaxy. This means that any civilization [4:18] which has developed such technology should have spread their probes throughout the galaxy [4:24] by now. Okay. But wait, this means there is another plausible explanation now for [4:30] why we haven't heard of those extraterrestrials. We've simply looked for the wrong thing. So far, [4:38] almost all searches for technosignatures have been to look for electromagnetic signals in [4:43] one way or another, because the aliens would directly send signals or because they built [4:49] structures around their star to extract energy and thereby dim it or similar. Maybe we should [4:55] instead make more effort to look for alien probes in the solar system. Maybe some of those supposed [5:02] asteroids are not asteroids. Maybe some of those supposed meteorites are not meteorites. Maybe some [5:09] of those unidentified anomalous phenomena are not camera glitches. I think these are [5:15] possibilities that we should take more seriously. That said, I give this paper a 10 out of 10 on the [5:21] [ __ ] meter. Not because it's bad or wrong, but because I think this isn't actually a scientific [5:27] paper. It's more of a cultural speculation. But it's still interesting and I think it's [5:32] another sign for how much the conversation about extraterrestrials has changed in the past decade. [5:42] Hello. Hi Elon. [5:47] Yeah, it's totally possible that aliens are here already. [5:53] Well, I guess the first thing they do would be to get super rich and start a space travel [6:00] company and build AI and robots. Oh, wait. [6:05] I read a lot of news everyday and that used to be really tedious because a lot of headlines repeat and it's difficult to tell what quality the articles are. [6:15] But today's sponsor, Ground News, has really made my news reading so much better. Ground News is a [6:22] news platform that collects news from all over the world. It really saves me a lot of time because I [6:27] don't have to sort through a dozen headlines on the same story. I can just get a quick summary [6:33] and fact check for all the coverage. And Ground News also gives you a lot of extra information at [6:39] one glance. An interesting recent example is the news when pieces of a Space X rocket crashed into [6:46] the moon. You can see at one glance that this was basically a centerright story with little interest [6:52] on the political left. Ground News also gives you a bias comparison. Left-leaning coverage stresses [6:58] disappointed investors, whereas right-leaning coverage turns it into a spectacle and critique. [7:05] Ground News also gives you a fact check for each news item, tells you who owns the media outlets, [7:10] and that in this case, sources are mostly out of the UK. Ground News also has this interesting [7:17] feature called Blind Spot. This collects news which has been covered only on one side of the [7:23] political spectrum. I found Ground News super useful for putting news into context quickly. [7:30] And of course, I have a special offer for you. That's a 40% discount on the Vantage Plan which [7:36] gives you access to all their features. All you need to do is use my link ground.news/sabine [7:42] or use the QR code so they'll know I sent you. Thanks for watching. See you tomorrow.