Khoo Bets on Meta and Nvidia as Corporate Earnings Cheapen S&P 500

My Stock Market Q4 Game Plan by Adam Khoo — Adam Khoo

Adam Khoo

A 32% earnings surge compressed the benchmark's forward multiple below historical averages, positioning undervalued megacaps for fourth-quarter advances backed by post-midterm election seasonality.

AI-assisted summary of My Stock Market Q4 Game Plan by Adam Khoo — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published:

Key ideas

  • Adam Khoo's portfolio gained 26.61% year-to-date, beating the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, propelled unexpectedly by enterprise cybersecurity leaders Fortinet (+139%), CrowdStrike (+121%), and Palo Alto Networks (+115%). (1:25)
  • Despite a 14% year-to-date index advance, the S&P 500 forward P/E compressed from 22.0x to 19.1x due to corporate earnings growth surging roughly 32% across the year. (17:50)
  • Historical analysis across all 19 U.S. midterm election cycles since 1950 indicates a 95% win rate over the subsequent 3 months and a 100% positive track record over 6- and 12-month windows. (20:30)
  • Meta Platforms is highlighted as the hyperscaler with the highest upside potential, driven by the rollout of its Muse agentic AI app, reaching 7 million downloads in under 30 days. (25:33)

Detailed notes

## Background Published by professional investor and author Adam Khoo on YouTube on October 14, 2026, this video outlines his market outlook and strategic positioning for the fourth quarter. Khoo evaluates whether the AI infrastructure trade is nearing a top or just starting, updates the performance of his "anti-bubble" holdings, and highlights a high-upside mega-cap hyperscaler set to benefit from consumer agentic AI catalysts.

## TL;DR Adam Khoo reviews his year-to-date portfolio gain of 26.61%, driven primarily by an unexpected surge in enterprise cybersecurity holdings alongside steady AI infrastructure gains. To insulate his portfolio against eventual AI capital expenditure deceleration, he structures capital across three distinct buckets: pure AI hardware enablers, diversified hyperscalers, and cash-generative "anti-bubble" compounders. He presents a fundamentally bullish thesis for the S&P 500 heading into year-end, pointing to earnings growth that outpaced index price appreciation, favorable post-midterm election seasonality, and compelling valuations in leaders like Nvidia and Meta.

## Atmosphere & style The presentation carries an energetic, pragmatic, and highly analytical tone, characteristic of an experienced educator walking viewers through a systematic investment playbook. Khoo speaks with candid directness and infectious self-assurance, balancing granular technical and fundamental chart breakdowns with down-to-earth analogies like maritime engineering in a storm. Listening to the session feels like sitting in an intensive private mentorship seminar where complex market crosscurrents, emotional discipline, and disciplined risk management are distilled into clear, actionable frameworks.

## Bulletin - [01:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=85s) Adam Khoo's portfolio gained 26.61% year-to-date, beating the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, propelled unexpectedly by enterprise cybersecurity leaders Fortinet (+139%), CrowdStrike (+121%), and Palo Alto Networks (+115%). - [17:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1070s) Despite a 14% year-to-date index advance, the S&P 500 forward P/E compressed from 22.0x to 19.1x due to corporate earnings growth surging roughly 32% across the year. - [20:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1230s) Historical analysis across all 19 U.S. midterm election cycles since 1950 indicates a 95% win rate over the subsequent 3 months and a 100% positive track record over 6- and 12-month windows. - [25:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1533s) Meta Platforms is highlighted as the hyperscaler with the highest upside potential, driven by the rollout of its Muse agentic AI app, reaching 7 million downloads in under 30 days.

## Key takeaways - [01:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=85s) Adam Khoo transferred 99% of his primary investment funds from a joint personal account into a corporate entity to avoid a 40% U.S. estate tax liability for non-resident aliens. - [04:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=271s) Disciplined position sizing protects portfolio capital, ensuring severe individual drawdowns like Nike (-43%) have negligible impact when kept under 0.5% total allocation. - [04:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=271s) Underperforming stocks are filtered through a two-step framework: distinguishing narrative or sentiment pullbacks from fundamental declines, and separating cyclical headwinds from permanent structural deterioration. - [07:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=465s) High-conviction compounders trading above intrinsic value should not be trimmed to time the market, as market-timing risks forfeiting multi-year compounding potential. - [11:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=660s) A balanced portfolio architecture splits assets across three buckets: direct AI infrastructure builders (~17%), diversified hyperscalers (~26%), and anti-bubble beneficiaries (~57%). - [11:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=660s) Hyperscalers provide an asymmetric cushion against an AI capex deceleration, as trimming capital expenditures rapidly restores free cash flow and operating profit margins. - [17:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1070s) Broad market technicals remain in a confirmed uptrend with stacked moving averages (20 EMA > 40 EMA, 50 SMA > 150 SMA > 200 SMA) tracing consecutive higher highs and higher lows. - [17:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1070s) The S&P 500 is valued cheaper on forward earnings today (19.1x) than at the start of the year (22.0x) because corporate earnings expanded roughly 32%, vastly outpacing price appreciation. - [20:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1230s) Post-midterm election seasonality provides strong statistical tailwinds, averaging positive returns in 95% of 3-month windows and 100% of 6- and 12-month periods regardless of political party outcomes. - [22:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1371s) Amazon remains Khoo's highest-conviction long-term holding due to retail robotics and AI margin expansion, but new buys require waiting for downward waves toward its $233 intrinsic value. - [25:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1533s) Meta Platforms presents an asymmetric catalyst with Muse, outpacing adoption rates of ChatGPT and Grok by reaching 7 million downloads within 30 days. - [27:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1659s) The transition to autonomous consumer agentic AI threatens pure ad-funded platforms and transaction middlemen, while benefiting core foundational models, payment rails, and compute suppliers. - [31:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1896s) Meta is fundamentally undervalued with a conservative intrinsic baseline of $900 per share, while unconstrained DCF models based on consensus growth project intrinsic values up to $2,000. - [34:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=2077s) Nvidia is not trading in an unsustainable bubble according to DCF modeling, showing an intrinsic valuation near $39 against a market price around $24 and a forward P/E of roughly 14x.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=0s) Book Writing Update and Reason for the Video

Adam Khoo opens by addressing his recent absence from YouTube, explaining that he has been completely consumed by writing his next book. It has been thirteen years since the publication of his widely known book, *Winning the Game of Stocks*, and he experienced a sudden inspiration to put together what he considers his final book. Despite pushback from friends and colleagues who questioned the effort—telling him that people no longer read physical books and that it would be a waste of time—Adam felt compelled to write because his philosophy has dramatically transformed over the past decade. Describing his personal growth and development, Adam Khoo stated, “I have evolved so much as an investor that it's something that I really want to share.”

To push the project across the finish line, he has been grinding out nine to ten hours of daily writing. The resulting manuscript spans 18 chapters and roughly 340 pages, with a planned release in early 2027. Despite the heavy writing workload, an influx of emails from subscribers asking about current market dynamics, upcoming opportunities, and his game plan for the fourth quarter convinced him to sit down and record a comprehensive update.

- **Manuscript Scope:** 18 chapters across roughly 340 pages, written over intensive 9- to 10-hour daily sessions. - **Publication Target:** Slated for launch in early 2027. - **Time Since Last Book:** 13 years since *Winning the Game of Stocks*.

---

[01:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=85s) Portfolio Performance and Corporate Restructuring for Estate Tax

Moving to portfolio performance, Adam shares his verified results for the first nine months of the year, noting that members of his Ultimate Investors Playbook (UIP) community track these positions on a daily and monthly basis. Year-to-date, his portfolio has gained 26.61%, comfortably beating both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Over an eight-year horizon, his strategy has generated a cumulative return of approximately 290%, compared to the S&P 500’s 200%.

He also explains a significant structural change made to his investment accounts in February. After managing his primary capital inside a joint account with his wife for years, he withdrew 99% of those funds and transferred them into a corporate entity. Adam candidly shares his reasoning regarding inheritance planning: “And the main reason is because I'm getting old and if I die suddenly uh personal account is subjected to 40% estate tax by the US authorities right but if I put it under company account there's no concern with any estate tax rates so that's the main reason I I put that off right uh you can see over the last 8 years uh performing about 290% way above the S&P 500 of 200% and this year year to date way outperforming the S&P and the NASDAQ as well.”

- **YTD Portfolio Return:** +26.61% across the first 9 months of the year. - **8-Year Cumulative Return:** ~290% vs. ~200% for the S&P 500 benchmark. - **Capital Realignment:** 99% of funds relocated from a personal joint account into a corporate account in February to mitigate the 40% U.S. non-resident alien estate tax liability.

---

[02:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=167s) Top Performers: Cybersecurity Surge and AI Infrastructure

Breaking down the sources of his year-to-date returns, Adam highlights an unexpected sector taking the top three spots in his portfolio: enterprise cybersecurity. While he has long advocated for cybersecurity as an essential secular growth theme—driven by sophisticated generative AI threats and rampant hacking activities—the magnitude of this year’s breakout caught him off guard. Speaking to these outsized gains, Adam Khoo remarked, “So my three strongest stocks are in cyber security and that is not something I actually anticipated this year.”

Fortinet leads his entire portfolio with an eye-popping 139% gain, followed closely by CrowdStrike up 121%, and Palo Alto Networks gaining 115%. Beyond cybersecurity, companies levered to AI capital expenditures and infrastructure continue to deliver robust performance. Semiconductor ETF SOXX gained 80%, Dutch lithography giant ASML rallied 57%, and life sciences cloud provider Veeva Systems climbed 35% after rebounding from the broader cloud software sell-off dubbed the "SaaSpocalypse." Additionally, an AI power/infrastructure holding surged 28%, Apple gained 26% despite early-year skepticism about its AI capabilities, Nvidia advanced 22%, and Palantir returned 18%.

- **Cybersecurity Leaders:** Fortinet (+139%), CrowdStrike (+121%), Palo Alto Networks (+115%). - **AI Infrastructure & Semis:** iShares Semiconductor ETF [SOXX] (+80%), ASML (+57%). - **Software & Mega-Caps:** Veeva Systems (+35%), AI Energy/Infrastructure holding (+28%), Apple (+26%), Nvidia (+22%), Palantir (+18%).

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[04:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=271s) Decision Framework for Underperforming Stocks

Adam shifts focus to his underperforming positions, underscoring that sensible portfolio sizing prevents laggards from ruining overall performance. His weakest holdings year-to-date include Nike (down 43%), LVMH (down 41%), Copart (down 32%), Pool Corp (down 28%), and Booking Holdings (down 26%). Because Nike was sized as a tiny speculative turnaround at less than 0.5% of his overall portfolio, even a catastrophic drawdown has virtually zero impact on his total net worth, whereas his top winners carry substantially higher allocations.

When deciding whether to cut losses or retain an underperforming asset, Adam runs the stock through a rigorous two-step logical filter. First, he determines whether the drop is driven purely by temporary market sentiment while business fundamentals remain strong, or whether the company's financial fundamentals have genuinely deteriorated. Among his losers, Booking Holdings is the only stock whose business fundamentals remain pristine; its share price suffered primarily from market fears that new consumer travel bots (such as Meta's newly launched conversational agent) might disintermediate online travel agencies. Because Adam accumulated Booking near the pandemic lows, locked in substantial gains by selling half at previous highs, and remains deeply in profit on his remaining shares, he continues to hold.

For LVMH, Copart, Pool Corp, and Nike, revenues and profits have undeniably declined. In those scenarios, Adam asks a second question: is the breakdown short-term and cyclical, or long-term and structural? For LVMH, Copart, and Pool Corp, he attributes the contraction to broader macroeconomic cycles rather than any permanent loss of competitive advantage. Explaining his discipline, Adam Khoo stated, “So if it is something that I find it is fixable, it is short-term cyclical, I hold it.” He keeps these positions intact without adding further capital until operational metrics turn back up.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Underperforming Stock Evaluation Framework accDescr: Flowchart detailing Adam Khoo's multi-step decision process for handling losing positions based on sentiment, fundamentals, and cyclicality. A["Position Underperforms / Declines"] --> B{"Why did the stock drop?"} B -->|"Sentiment / Narrative Only<br>(Moat & Cash Flow Intact)"| C["Hold Position / Do Not Sell<br>(e.g., Booking Holdings)"] B -->|"Fundamentals Declined<br>(Revenue & Profit Down)"| D{"Is the decline temporary/cyclical<br>or structural/permanent?"} D -->|"Short-Term Cyclical / Macro Headwinds"| E["Hold Existing Position<br>Pause Buying Until Growth Returns<br>(e.g., LVMH, Copart, Pool Corp)"] D -->|"Structural Deterioration / Moat Broken"| F["Exit / Cut Loss"] ```

- **Portfolio Laggards:** Nike (-43%), LVMH (-41%), Copart (-32%), Pool Corp (-28%), Booking Holdings (-26%). - **Risk Mitigation via Position Sizing:** Nike represents under 0.5% of total capital, insulating the portfolio from downside shocks. - **Booking Holdings Case Study:** Down strictly on sentiment/AI displacement fears; original basis acquired at market bottoms during 2020, with half already cashed out at peak valuation.

---

[07:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=465s) The Nike Turnaround, Holding Overvalued Winners, and the Anti-Bubble Thesis

Adam turns to the nuances of Nike's ongoing turnaround. While he believes the operational damage caused by previous management is repairable, the timeline is taking significantly longer than initial consensus expectations, likely requiring one to two more years to complete. Incoming CEO Elliott Hill has already generated double-digit revenue expansion within core performance categories—such as running, football, and tennis. However, overall top-line numbers remain weighed down by steep declines in the larger lifestyle and casual sneaker division. Adam refuses to average down on Nike, LVMH, Copart, or Pool Corp until they formally re-qualify under his fundamental criteria by showing renewed revenue and earnings growth.

He then tackles a common investor dilemma: why not take profits on high-flying winners like Fortinet, CrowdStrike, and Palo Alto Networks, which are trading well above intrinsic fair value after gaining 200% to 300% from his cost basis? Adam argues against trying to time market swings on elite franchises. While stretched valuations frequently lead to short-term pullbacks, attempting to sell high to buy back lower carries the severe risk of being left behind if exceptional compounders keep running. In his view, these companies have the capacity to double, triple, or quadruple over a three-to-five-year horizon. Expressing his conviction to hold through short-term froth, Adam Khoo asserted, “So these are companies that I want to hold for the long run. I'm not selling them.”

Finally, Adam recalls his midyear presentation on the "Anti-Bubble Mania." While speculative market pockets—such as space-exploration equities, quantum computing plays, and select memory stocks—have experienced sharp deflations, forgotten value compounders operating completely outside the AI narrative have quietly generated powerful rallies.

- **Nike Segment Divergence:** Performance athletic shoes (running, football, tennis) are growing double digits under Elliott Hill, while lifestyle apparel and casual footwear continue to drag down overall earnings. - **Capital Discipline:** Strict rule against adding capital to underperforming holdings until revenue and net profit trends officially resume an upward trajectory. - **Valuation Management:** Refusal to trim overvalued secular leaders in cybersecurity due to multi-year compounding potential and market-timing risk. - **Anti-Bubble Thesis:** Capital rotating away from speculative bubble niches (space, quantum, memory) into overlooked non-AI cash-flow compounders.

[11:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=660s) The Three Portfolio Buckets: Balancing AI Capex, Hyperscalers, and Anti-Bubble Stocks

Adam Khoo explains his core portfolio strategy: hedging against an inevitable yet unpredictable inflection point in artificial intelligence capital expenditure. He has been actively accumulating "anti-bubble stocks" that do not depend on AI infrastructure spending. When AI capex growth eventually decelerates, capital will inevitably rotate into these unloved names. However, because spending could easily expand for another one, two, or three years, an investor cannot simply sit on the sidelines waiting. Khoo insists on keeping balance: “So, like I said, you got to have one foot in the AI trade, but another foot in the anti-bubble trade.”

To execute this, he divides his equity holdings into three distinct buckets:

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Three Portfolio Buckets Allocation accDescr: Visual breakdown of Adam Khoo portfolio divided into pure AI builders, diversified hyperscalers, and anti-bubble beneficiaries.

subgraph Portfolio["Adam Khoo Portfolio Architecture"] B1["Bucket 1: Direct AI Builders (17%)<br/>Nvidia, ASML, Broadcom, SOXX, AIQ"] B2["Bucket 2: Hyperscalers (26%)<br/>Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta"] B3["Bucket 3: Anti-Bubble Beneficiaries (57%)<br/>JPMorgan, S&P Global, Healthcare, Cybersecurity"] end

B1 -->|"Capex Slows"| S1["Takes sharpest hit / Drops hardest"] B2 -->|"Capex Slows"| S2["50/50 impact: Capex cuts restore free cash flows"] B3 -->|"Capex Slows"| S3["Capital rotation rally / Gains accelerate"] ```

- **Bucket 1: Pure AI Infrastructure Builders (~17%):** Direct hardware and picks-and-shovels enablers such as NVIDIA, ASML, Broadcom, alongside sector exchange-traded funds like SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) and AIQ. Khoo emphasizes that he avoids buying overvalued names in this segment, restricting capital only to those trading at fair value or at a discount. These names face the steepest downside whenever capital spending momentum rolls over. - **Bucket 2: Hyperscalers (~26%):** Mega-cap tech giants including Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Although they invest tens of billions into data center capex, their business models are heavily diversified across digital advertising, consumer AI agents, hardware (such as Meta smart glasses), and global e-commerce and logistics. If these companies cut their capex budgets, their profitability and cash flows could bounce back rapidly, leaving them poised to hold up or even advance during an infrastructure slowdown. - **Bucket 3: Anti-Bubble and Cybersecurity Beneficiaries (~57%):** The lion's share of the portfolio. These companies do not construct AI hardware, but they leverage AI tools to eliminate operational overhead, boost employee productivity, and widen operating profit margins. Examples include traditional money-center banks like JPMorgan Chase, rating and data providers like S&P Global, insurers, and cybersecurity providers protecting expanding threat surfaces.

[14:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=899s) Portfolio Mechanics, Gains Snapshot, and the "Ark" Philosophy

Khoo outlines how this structural balance operates through market cycles. As long as the AI buildout continues, Buckets 1 and 2 power overall performance, while Bucket 3 steadily compounds. If and when the AI bubble deflates, Bucket 1 will suffer steep declines, Bucket 2 will likely move sideways or hold resilient, and Bucket 3 will surge as institutional capital searches for value and earnings durability, cushioning the total portfolio.

He rejects short-term market timing or pretending to forecast the precise top. Anyone claiming to know the exact date of a market turn is, in his words, completely mistaken: “And people who tell you they can predict exactly when it's going to happen, they are either delusional or they are an idiot.” Rather than forecasting the weather, he views portfolio construction as maritime engineering: “Instead of trying to predict when the storm will come or when the flood will come, I don't try to. I just make sure that I build the strongest arc I can ever build. So whenever the storm comes comes or the rain comes, everyone gets flooded to death, but I will survive, okay? And I will prosper uh uh swimming or not swimming, sorry, but floating on the waves.”

Reviewing unrealized gains across his positions, Khoo shares specific figures to illustrate how both buckets have delivered:

- **Cybersecurity & Software:** Fortinet (+212%), CrowdStrike (+217%), and Palo Alto Networks (+148%). - **Hyperscalers & AI Infrastructure:** Alphabet / Google (+221%), NVIDIA (+209%), Amazon (+119%), Meta Platforms (+114%), and Microsoft (+67%). - **Anti-Bubble & Defensives:** HCA Healthcare (+32%), UnitedHealth Group (+26%, which has pulled back from higher levels and represents a potential reload opportunity), and the Global X Defense ETF (+17%).

[17:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1070s) Macro Technicals and Earnings: Why the S&P 500 Is Cheaper Today

Looking ahead into the fourth quarter, Khoo turns to technical and valuation fundamentals, concluding that the odds favor substantial upside into year-end. From a technical chart perspective, the benchmark exhibits a clean, unbroken uptrend across all major moving averages:

- The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) trades cleanly above the 40-day EMA. - The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) trades above the upward-sloping 150-day SMA. - The entire moving average stack remains anchored above a rising 200-day SMA. - The price action traces classic higher swing highs and higher swing lows across each wave.

From a valuation perspective, Khoo confronts the widespread assumption that the market is overextended. Despite the S&P 500 climbing 14% year-to-date, the index is actually cheaper on a forward earnings basis than it was at the start of the year:

| Metric | Start of Year | Current (as of Oct 12) | 5-Year Historical Average | 10-Year Historical Average | |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **S&P 500 Forward P/E** | 22.0x | 19.1x | 19.8x | 19.1x |

The compression in the multiple occurred because corporate earnings dramatically outpaced price gains. First-quarter earnings expanded 28% year-over-year, second-quarter earnings jumped 38%, and full-year aggregate S&P 500 earnings are projected to expand roughly 32%. Because 32% underlying earnings growth eclipses a 14% index advance, equity valuations have contracted into fair-value territory, giving the broader market room to run an additional 5% to 10% over the final quarter.

[20:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1230s) Historical Seasonality: The Bullish Midterm Election Precedent

Adding to the bullish thesis for late-year equity performance, Khoo highlights historical post-midterm seasonality. Analyzing all 19 US midterm election cycles dating back to 1950, equity markets have historically launched into one of the most reliable and aggressive multi-month advances in modern market history starting right around election day in early November:

- **3-Month Post-Election Window (November through February):** The market posted positive returns in 95% of past cycles, delivering an average gain of 8.1% and a median gain of 8.6%. - **6-Month Post-Election Window:** The market was positive in 100% of historical instances (19 out of 19 cycles), generating an average return of 16.0% and a median return of 14.0%. - **12-Month Post-Election Window:** The market was positive 100% of the time across all 19 occurrences, generating an average return of 22.0% and a median gain of 23.0%.

Khoo emphasizes that this historical track record holds irrespective of which political party captures control of the Senate or the House of Representatives. When assessing individual equities against this macro backdrop, he focuses on two objective criteria: whether the primary technical trend remains upward, and whether valuation remains undervalued rather than excessively stretched. With those criteria in place, he turns to analyze specific individual names, beginning with the hyperscalers in Bucket 2.

[22:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1371s) Hyperscaler Technicals: Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet

Adam Khoo begins with his largest holding among the hyperscalers, reiterating his absolute conviction in the company: “I've said many times before that if you were to put a gun to my head and say, Adam, you have to put your entire family's net worth into one stock, what would it be? It would be Amazon because it is the most diversified with the most profit margin expansion potential once they fully deploy AI and robotics.” Looking at the weekly candlestick chart, Amazon is moving in a consistent uptrend composed of repeated waves up and waves down. Its calculated intrinsic value is $233, making the current market price slightly overvalued. Following his strict investing rules, he refuses to add shares while the stock is extended, waiting instead for a wave down toward or below intrinsic value, targeting technical support levels where the stock historically reverses upward.

Moving to Microsoft, the valuation picture is reversed: Microsoft is fundamentally undervalued against an intrinsic value of $570. Despite the discount, Khoo emphasizes patience and execution discipline: “I never buy after a wave up. I always buy after a wave down because after wave up, you get wave down, wave up, wave down.” The stock is currently riding an upward wave toward intrinsic value, so he will wait for a pullback near key technical support before adding to his position.

Alphabet (Google) presents a similar setup. After spending time in overvalued territory, Alphabet has pulled back below its intrinsic value of $374. The weekly chart shows a clean sequence of upward and downward waves, and the stock is currently consolidating just above a major support level. Khoo notes that it has bounced off support and could push higher in the coming weeks, remaining an attractive, undervalued hyperscaler based on fundamental value and trend structure.

- Amazon intrinsic value: $233 (currently slightly overvalued; wait for pullbacks to support) - Microsoft intrinsic value: $570 (undervalued, but extended on a wave up) - Alphabet intrinsic value: $374 (undervalued, consolidating above support)

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[25:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1533s) Meta Platforms and the Consumer Agentic AI Surge

Khoo identifies Meta Platforms as the hyperscaler possessing the greatest potential upside over both the short and long term. The primary catalyst is Meta's rapid rollout of consumer agentic AI, led by its new standalone app, Muse. Muse quickly reached the number-one spot on both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store in the United States. The pace of adoption has outstripped every major AI tool to date, setting an unprecedented benchmark for consumer software onboarding.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Time to Reach Milestone App Downloads accDescr: Bar chart comparison of days required for major AI applications to reach download milestones. subgraph Rapid["Under 30 Days"] M["Meta Muse<br/>7M downloads<br/><b>&lt;30 days</b>"] end subgraph Established["75 to 180 Days"] C["ChatGPT<br/>7M downloads<br/><b>75 days</b>"] Gk["Grok<br/>Downloads<br/><b>165 days</b>"] Gm["Gemini<br/>3M downloads<br/><b>180 days</b>"] end Rapid -.-> Established ```

Khoo explains that Muse is a full consumer agentic AI application designed to autonomously handle complex everyday tasks: executing online shopping, booking flights and hotels, comparing prices, and sending emails on the user's behalf. While currently restricted to the United States, Khoo eagerly anticipates its rollout to Singapore and international markets. Coupled with its smart glasses hardware lineup, Khoo observes that Meta is successfully executing a hardware-software ecosystem transition, noting that Meta is “pivoting to become the next Apple if you ask me. And I think it's very possible that they they could actually pull it off.”

OpenAI responded shortly after by launching DOTS, its own consumer agentic AI tool. Khoo emphasizes that personal autonomous software agents will soon represent the primary interface between individuals and digital commerce.

- Meta Muse: 7 million downloads in under 30 days (#1 on US App Store and Google Play) - ChatGPT comparison: 75 days to reach 7 million downloads - Grok comparison: Approximately 165 days - Gemini standalone app comparison: 180 days to reach 3 million downloads

---

[27:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1659s) Winners and Losers of the Agentic AI Revolution

The shift from human browsing to autonomous agent execution introduces massive shifts across corporate business models. When human users no longer visit front-end shopping or search portals directly, ad-funded search marketplaces face disruption because traditional digital ad impressions lose their audience. While Amazon's retail advertising revenue faces exposure, Khoo is unconcerned about his core position because Amazon's diversified structure offsets the loss: high-margin cloud infrastructure (AWS), e-commerce fulfillment, and logistics networks will capture massive volume from agentic transactions. Similarly, Alphabet faces risk in core search advertising, but benefits symmetrically through Google Cloud infrastructure and its proprietary foundational agent platforms. Highly ad-reliant platforms lacking structural diversification—such as Pinterest, Snap, and Reddit—face severe vulnerability.

Middlemen and freelance platforms face direct disintermediation. While Booking Holdings suffered price pressure, its proprietary supply relationships and exclusive discounted travel inventory give it a durable economic moat that AI agents must still access. Weaker aggregators like TripAdvisor, Angi, and Cars.com, as well as outsourced call centers and freelance platforms like Upwork and Fiverr, face severe disruption because automated agents can perform these coordination tasks for free.

Conversely, the clear beneficiaries include agent foundation platforms (Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet), established payment rails (Visa, Mastercard) that process autonomous agent transactions, commerce platforms like Shopify and Walmart, and compute infrastructure providers (Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC) that supply the hardware required to run agentic models.

| Category | High-Risk / Disrupted | Well-Positioned / Beneficiaries | |:--- |:--- |:--- | | **Search & Marketplaces** | Pure ad-dependent models (Pinterest, Snap, Reddit) | Diversified hyperscalers (Amazon via AWS/logistics, Alphabet via Cloud/AI models) | | **Middlemen & Intermediaries** | TripAdvisor, Angi, Cars.com, Upwork, Fiverr, legacy call centers | Booking Holdings (retains moat via locked-in discounted inventory) | | **Infrastructure & Rails** | Distressed processors (PayPal avoided due to company-specific issues) | Visa, Mastercard, Shopify, Walmart, Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC |

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[31:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1896s) Deep Valuation of Meta Platforms

Returning to his valuation analysis of Meta, Khoo argues that the stock remains significantly mispriced relative to its earnings power and growth profile. Conservative modeling platforms such as Oracle Value cap terminal growth rates at 15%, deriving an intrinsic value of $900 per share, which leaves Meta roughly 17% undervalued at current trading levels.

However, unconstrained discounted cash flow (DCF) models tell a much more aggressive story. Applying FactSet consensus analyst estimates—which project 18% annualized earnings growth over the next 3 to 5 years and 24% longer-term growth—yields an intrinsic value of approximately $2,000 per share, more than double its current market price. Using a discounted free cash flow terminal model yields an intrinsic value around $1,300 per share. Khoo acknowledges that short-term volatility, market manipulation, and emotional swings can push the stock lower temporarily, but he remains adamant about its fundamental baseline: “what I'm saying is that it's worth at least 900 bucks. That's what I'm saying. All right, which you will get there.”

- Oracle Value conservative intrinsic value: $900 (stock is ~17% undervalued with a 15% growth cap) - FactSet consensus DCF valuation: ~$2,000 (based on 18% 3–5 year growth and 24% long-term growth) - Discounted free cash flow terminal valuation: ~$1,300

[34:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=2043s) Meta Platforms Valuation and Technical Consolidation

Adam Khoo examines Meta Platforms, observing that while the timing of market realization remains uncertain—whether next week, end of year, or next year—the underlying business carries an intrinsic valuation of roughly $900. Analyzing the recent price action, he points out that Meta has been trapped in a consolidation range. This sideways drift was primarily triggered by lingering legal overhangs regarding social media addiction lawsuits that weighed on investor sentiment.

Now that legal overhangs are getting resolved and Meta has rolled out a new frontier AI model, Khoo anticipates a potential upside breakout, cementing Meta as one of the largest holdings in his overall portfolio.

- Intrinsic value assessment for Meta stands at approximately $900. - Recent sideways price action was suppressed by social media addiction legal proceedings. - Near-term upside catalysts include legal settlements and newly deployed AI frontier models.

[34:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=2077s) Nvidia's Valuation Metrics: The Granddaddy of AI Infrastructure

Turning to Nvidia, which he crowns the undisputed "granddaddy of AI infrastructure," Khoo tackles the common narrative that semiconductor chipmakers are trading in an unsustainable bubble. Contrary to popular sentiment, he demonstrates that Nvidia remains fundamentally undervalued across multiple valuation frameworks. Calculating its discounted cash flow (DCF) intrinsic value at around $39 per share versus a trading price of $24, Khoo highlights a clear 27% discount to fair value.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Nvidia Valuation Framework accDescr: Visual summary of Adam Khoo's valuation of Nvidia across multiple metrics including DCF, forward PE, and multi-model intrinsic value.

subgraph NVDA["Nvidia Valuation Checks"] DCF["Discounted Cash Flow Model<br>Intrinsic Value: ~$39<br>Market Price: ~$24"] PE["Earnings Multiple<br>Forward P/E: 14x"] ALL["Multi-Method Screen<br>Below all major valuation models"] end

DCF --> RES["Undervalued by 27%"] PE --> RES ALL --> RES ```

Looking at forward earnings multiples, Nvidia trades at roughly 14 times forward earnings, which Khoo characterizes as remarkably attractive given its operational dominance and structural tailwinds. As Adam Khoo asserts: “Is it overvalued? I don't think so. In fact, if you look at Nvidia over here, you may be surprised to know that on many measures, it is still undervalued.” Across every comparative valuation benchmark tested on his software, the current market price remains far below modeled fair values.

- Discounted cash flow (DCF) model pegs intrinsic value at $39 against a market price around $24 (27% undervalued). - Forward price-to-earnings ratio stands near 14x. - All independent quantitative valuation methodologies reflect an ongoing discount to fair value.

[35:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=2126s) The Q4 Portfolio Playbook and Midterm Seasonality Odds

Adam Khoo concludes the market walkthrough by detailing his asset allocation roadmap across three complementary portfolio buckets for the fourth quarter:

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Three-Bucket Portfolio Game Plan for Q4 accDescr: Visual flow showing the allocation into AI Infrastructure, Hyperscalers, and Anti-Bubble stocks, alongside election tailwinds.

subgraph Strategy["Q4 Game Plan: 3 Investment Buckets"] direction TB B1["Bucket 1: AI Infrastructure<br>• Nvidia, Broadcom, SOXX<br>• Solid valuation margins"] B2["Bucket 2: Hyperscalers<br>• Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta<br>• Catalysts: Muse Agent & Frontier Models"] B3["Bucket 3: Anti-Bubble Equities<br>• Steady defensive performance<br>• Capital rotation hedge when AI slows"] end

Strategy --> MACRO["Midterm Election Historical Tailwinds<br>• 3-Month Win Rate: 95%<br>• 6-12 Month Win Rate: 100%"] ```

1. **AI Infrastructure:** Holding key picks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and the SOXX ETF, emphasizing that core positions trade at attractive valuation margins rather than bubble prices. 2. **Hyperscalers:** Retaining heavy exposure to Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Meta Platforms, singling out Meta as having superior upside due to the rollout of new frontier AI architectures and its Muse agent ecosystem. 3. **Anti-Bubble Equities:** Holding non-AI value assets that have delivered respectable year-to-date returns to serve as a recipient of capital rotation once AI capital expenditure cycles normalize.

To support his aggressive positioning heading into year-end, Khoo turns to historical US midterm election seasonality data. Historically, post-November performance shows an asymmetric positive edge: a 95% probability of positive market returns three months post-election, and a 100% historical win rate over six- and twelve-month horizons. As Adam Khoo emphasizes: “And finally, like I showed you, being a midterm election year, statistically there's a 95% chance the market will be higher 3 months after November and 100% chance is going to be higher 6 months and 12 months from November.”

Closing out the session, he reminds viewers to subscribe, hit the bell icon, and explore Piranha Profits and Wealth Academy online programs for deep dives into live investing, options trading, and market timing frameworks, signing off with his signature catchphrase: “And as always, may the markets be with you.”

## Notable quotes > [22:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=1371s) I never buy after a wave up. I always buy after a wave down because after wave up, you get wave down, wave up, wave down. — Adam Khoo

> [11:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw&t=660s) you got to have one foot in the AI trade, but another foot in the anti-bubble trade. — Adam Khoo

## Mentioned Adam Khoo, Winning the Game of Stocks, Profit from the Panic, Ultimate Investors Playbook, Wealth Academy, Piranha Profits, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, SOXX, ASML, Veeva Systems, Apple, Nvidia, Palantir, Nike, LVMH, Copart, Pool Corp, Booking Holdings, Elliott Hill, Broadcom, AIQ, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, JPMorgan Chase, S&P Global, HCA Healthcare, UnitedHealth Group, Global X Defense ETF, Muse, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DOTS, OpenAI, Pinterest, Snap, Reddit, TripAdvisor, Angi, Cars.com, Upwork, Fiverr, Visa, Mastercard, Shopify, Walmart, TSMC, PayPal, FactSet, Oracle Value

## Video description 9 months into 2026 and AI stocks are still carrying the whole market. Is this the top, or just the beginning?

In this video I break down where we really are in the AI infrastructure cycle, whether the market is overheated, and whether it still makes sense to stay invested in the companies building the data centres, chips and power behind AI.

I also update you on how the Anti-Bubble stocks have performed since I first shared the thesis, and what the setup looks like heading into the final quarter of the year.

And there is one Hyperscaler I believe has the highest upside from here, because of a new major catalyst that most investors are overlooking. I’ll show you exactly what it is and why it matters.

Watch to the end so you know how to position your portfolio for Q4!

======================== Stock Investing & Trading insights by Adam Khoo will show you profitable trading and investment opportunities in today's stock markets.

These are essential strategies for stock traders and investors who want to improve their investment and trading performance.

Adam Khoo is a professional stock investor and options trader and the best-selling author of 16 books including 'Winning the Game of Stocks" and "Profit from the Panic". Thousands of students have profited from his sharp investment insights into the world of stock market investing and trading. ===================== Sign up for our courses/mentorship programs 📗 Value Momentum Investing: http://bit.ly/4mqrEVP 📙 Options Waverider™: http://bit.ly/4c5xyrR 📘 Price Action Manipulation™ (Trading): http://bit.ly/48FUAmQ 📕 Income Investing™ (Dividends): http://bit.ly/3Ow8CRj

Grab our Playbook Subscriptions Ultimate Investors Playbook™: http://bit.ly/3QiN6zT Options Tactics Playbook™: http://bit.ly/4tCQFPL PAM™ Trader Playbook: http://bit.ly/4mmYnv0 ===================== 💻 Join Our Wealth Academy Live Seminars https://www.wealthacademyglobal.com ===================== 🧑‍🏫 Visit Adam Khoo Learning Technologies Group https://www.akltg.com ===================== Follow Me On Social Media 🌟 Facebook: https://facebook.com/adamkhoosuccess 🌟 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/adamkhoosuccess/ ===================== Follow Piranha Profits On Social Media 🐟 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/piranhaprofits 🐟 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/piranhaprofits 🐟 Telegram: https://t.me/piranhaprofits 🐟 Discord: https://discord.gg/piranhaprofits ===================== 👉 If you've found this video helpful, please LIKE, SHARE, & COMMENT 👉 SUBSCRIBE to my Channel for more Market Analyses & Investing Strategies 👉 Click on the NOTIFICATION BELL to get notified whenever I upload a new video ===================== 💸 MAY THE MARKETS BE WITH YOU! 💸

[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-yguWtahHw)

中文简报

企业盈利压低标普500估值，Khoo押注Meta与Nvidia 32%的盈利激增将基准指数的远期市盈率压缩至历史平均水平以下，在期中选举后季节性利好的支撑下，被低估的巨头股有望在第四季度迎来上涨。 Adam Khoo回顾了其投资组合年内迄今26.61%的涨幅，这一表现主要受企业网络安全持仓的意外飙升以及AI基础设施的稳健收益推动。为防范未来AI资本支出放缓的风险，他将资金配置在三个独立类别：纯AI硬件赋能企业、多元化超大规模企业以及具备充沛现金流的“反泡沫”复合增长型企业。他提出了年底前标普500指数的基本面看多逻辑，指出盈利增长已超过指数价格涨幅，叠加期中选举后有利的季节性趋势，以及Nvidia和Meta等行业龙头具有吸引力的估值。 Adam Khoo的投资组合年内迄今上涨26.61%，跑赢标普500指数和纳斯达克指数，这主要意外得益于企业网络安全龙头Fortinet（+139%）、CrowdStrike（+121%）和Palo Alto Networks（+115%）的强劲推动。 (1:25) 尽管标普500指数年内迄今上涨了14%，但由于企业盈利全年激增约32%，该指数的远期市盈率从22.0倍压缩至19.1倍。 (17:50) 对1950年以来美国全部19个期中选举周期的历史分析显示，选举后3个月内上涨概率达95%，而在6个月和12个月区间内的正收益胜率达到100%。 (20:30) Meta Platforms被视为上涨潜力最大的超大规模企业，这得益于其Muse智能体AI应用的推出，该应用在不到30天内下载量突破700万次。 (25:33)

Reading summary

Investor Adam Khoo outlines his fourth-quarter market game plan, arguing that strong corporate earnings and historical post-midterm election seasonality support continued equity upside, which he navigates using a balanced three-bucket portfolio architecture. Portfolio Performance and Capital Restructuring (1:25) Khoo reports a 26.61% gain for his portfolio over the first nine months of the year, outperforming the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, alongside an eight-year cumulative return of roughly 290% against the benchmark's 200%. Performance was driven by enterprise cybersecurity holdings, including Fortinet (+139%), CrowdStrike (+121%), and Palo Alto Networks (+115%), supported by AI semiconductor and cloud infrastructure assets such as SOXX (+80%) and ASML (+57%). In February, Khoo shifted 99% of his capital from a joint personal account with his wife into a corporate entity. He explained this structural reallocation was implemented strictly for inheritance and estate planning, specifically to shield his assets from the 40% U.S. estate tax levied on non-resident aliens upon death. Discipline on Underperformers and Stretched Compounders (4:31) Addressing underperforming positions such as Nike (-43%), LVMH (-41%), Copart (-32%), Pool Corp (-28%), and Booking Holdings (-26%), Khoo applies a multi-step framework to determine whether to hold or exit. For Booking Holdings, he holds because core financial fundamentals and proprietary supply arrangements remain solid, attributing the sell-off purely to transient sentiment regarding AI agent disruption. For positions experiencing operational contraction due to macro cycles, such as LVMH and Nike, he maintains holdings but enforces a strict rule against averaging down until revenue and net profit officially resume growth. Nike was sized at under 0.5% of total capital to insulate the broader portfolio from downside risk. Conversely, Khoo refuses to take profits on high-flying winners like his cybersecurity leaders, despite their trading above intrinsic fair value. He argues that market-timing elite compounders exposes investors to the risk of missing multi-year compounding cycles, as top franchises retain the potential to double or quadruple over a three-to-five-year period. The Three-Bucket Allocation Architecture (11:00) To hedge against an eventual slowdown in artificial intelligence capital expenditures without sacrificing participation in continued growth, Khoo allocates capital across three distinct buckets. Bucket 1 comprises direct AI builders and hardware enablers (~17%), such as Nvidia, ASML, Broadcom, and the SOXX ETF, where purchases are strictly limited to fair or discounted valuations. Bucket 2 consists of diversified hyperscalers (~26%), including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, whose core operations can offset capex deceleration or generate surging free cash flow if spending contracts. Bucket 3 represents the largest portion of the portfolio (~57%), consisting of 'anti-bubble' compounders and defensive assets such as JPMorgan Chase, S&P Global, healthcare holdings, and cybersecurity. These firms leverage AI for operational efficiency rather than spending on hardware, positioning them to receive institutional capital rotations whenever hardware infrastructure spending peaks. Macro Technicals, Valuation Compression, and Seasonality (17:50) Khoo identifies technical and fundamental tailwinds supporting an additional 5% to 10% advance in the S&P 500 through year-end. Technically, the benchmark exhibits an intact uptrend, trading above rising 20-day, 50-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages with higher swing highs and lows. Fundamentally, despite a 14% year-to-date index advance, the forward price-to-earnings multiple contracted from 22.0x to 19.1x due to roughly 32% projected full-year aggregate earnings growth, putting the multiple at or below 5-year and 10-year historical averages. This valuation support is paired with historical U.S. midterm election seasonality across 19 cycles since 1950. Khoo highlights that the three-month window following election day delivered positive returns in 95% of past instances (averaging 8.1%), while the six-month and twelve-month windows posted positive returns 100% of the time, regardless of which political party took control of Congress. Hyperscaler Positioning and Agentic AI Opportunities (25:33) Evaluating individual hyperscalers, Khoo identifies Meta Platforms as offering the greatest near-term and long-term upside, catalyzed by the deployment of frontier AI models and its consumer agentic app, Muse, which attained 7 million downloads in under 30 days. He models Meta's conservative intrinsic value at $900 per share—with aggressive DCF variations ranging from $1,300 to $2,000—noting that the stock has been consolidating due to social media litigation overhangs. Khoo assesses Alphabet and Microsoft as undervalued against intrinsic values of $374 and $570 respectively, while Amazon trades slightly above fair value ($233), warranting patience for technical pullbacks. Addressing semiconductor valuations, Khoo disputes bubble narratives around Nvidia, citing a forward P/E around 14x and a DCF intrinsic value estimate of $39 against a market price near $24, representing an estimated 27% discount. Khoo maintains an aggressive long stance into year-end, betting that historical post-election seasonality, compressed forward earnings multiples, and agentic AI rollouts will drive equities higher. However, his long-term risk management relies on the assumption that non-AI anti-bubble assets and cash-flow-rich hyperscalers will successfully absorb institutional capital if AI infrastructure expenditure abruptly decelerates.

精炼阅读摘要

Adam Khoo指出，当前美股在盈利高增长的驱动下估值实际上较年初更为便宜，叠加历史中期选举后的强劲季节性顺风，第四季度整体具备可观上涨空间；投资者应通过“三大资金桶”架构平衡AI基建与非AI反泡沫资产，而非试图预测资本支出见顶的时点。 宏观估值压缩与中期选举历史顺风 (17:50) 尽管标普500指数年内录得两位数涨幅，但Adam Khoo指出其远期市盈率已从年初的22.0倍压缩至19.1倍，与10年历史均值持平，低于5年均值的19.8倍。这一压缩源于企业盈利的爆发式增长：标普500一季度盈利同比增长28%，二季度增长38%，全年预计增长约32%，大幅超越指数价格涨幅，使估值重回合理区间，为第四季度打开了5%至10%的潜在上行空间。从技术面看，主要指数维持清晰的多头排列，20日EMA高于40日EMA，50日与150日SMA均呈上行趋势，位于200日SMA上方。 历史季节性数据进一步强化了年底的看涨逻辑。回顾1950年以来的全部19次美国中期选举周期，大选后3个月（11月至次年2月）美股上涨概率高达95%，平均涨幅为8.1%，中位数为8.6%；大选后6个月与12个月的上涨概率达到100%，平均涨幅分别为16.0%与22.0%。Khoo强调，无论国会控制权归属于哪个党派，这一统计规律均高度稳定。 防御性三桶投资架构应对AI支出波动 (11:00) 为对冲人工智能资本支出可能出现的周期性放缓，同时避免过早离场错失行情，Khoo构建了“方舟式”的三桶资产组合。第一桶为直接受益于AI基建的纯硬件供应商（约占17%），包括Nvidia、ASML、Broadcom及半导体ETF（SOXX、AIQ），这类资产仅在处于或低于公允价值时买入，在资本开支放缓时承受的回撤压力最大。第二桶为超大规模云服务巨头（约占26%），如Alphabet、Microsoft、Amazon与Meta，其业务高度多元化，资本开支削减反而可能迅速修复自由现金流。 第三桶占据整个组合的最大份额（约57%），由“反泡沫”优质现金流资产与网络安全龙头构成，包括JPMorgan Chase、S&P Global、医疗保健股及CrowdStrike、Fortinet等网络安全标的。Khoo的设想在于：若AI热潮延续，前两桶将驱动超额收益；一旦AI基建支出见顶降温，机构资金将迅速轮换流入第三桶资产，从而平抑组合波动并维持整体财富增值。 超大规模巨头评估与智能体AI分化 (22:51) 在超大规模科技股中，Khoo将Amazon列为确定性最高的核心持仓，但指出其当前价格略高于233美元的内在价值，需等待回调至技术支撑位；Microsoft（内在价值570美元）与Alphabet（内在价值374美元）均处于被低估区间，但买入需等待上升浪潮结束后的回调。Meta被视为上行空间最大的标的，其保守内在价值为900美元（折现率上限15%），激进DCF模型估值更高。其催化剂在于近期消除了社交成瘾诉讼阴霾，并成功推出了消费级自主智能体应用Muse，该应用在不到30天内实现700万次下载，速度大幅超过ChatGPT（75天）、Grok（165天）与Gemini（180天达300万次）。 Khoo进一步分析了自主智能体（Agentic AI）对商业模式的洗牌效应。随着用户转向由智能体代劳购物与预订，高度依赖搜索广告展示的平台（如Pinterest、Snap、Reddit）以及缺乏护城河的中介撮合平台（如TripAdvisor、Angi、Upwork）将遭遇严重冲击；而拥有底层基础设施的巨头、拥有专有低价供应链的Booking Holdings、底层支付通道（Visa、Mastercard）以及算力提供商（Nvidia、Broadcom、TSMC）将成为长远赢家。 头寸分化管理与长期复合持股纪律 (4:31) 面对持仓内部的极端分化，Khoo实行严格的仓位管理与两步筛选框架。年内其网络安全持仓（Fortinet上涨139%、CrowdStrike上涨121%、Palo Alto Networks上涨115%）与AI硬件标的大幅领跑，尽管估值处于高位，他拒绝过早获利了结，以规避踏空3至5年复合增长机会的风险。与此同时，落后标的如Nike（下跌43%）、LVMH（下跌41%）、Copart（下跌32%）与Pool Corp（下跌28%）由于仓位控制严格（例如Nike初始占比不足0.5%），并未对组合净值构成实质拖累。 对于亏损标的，Khoo首先区分是情绪驱动还是基本面恶化：Booking Holdings仅因市场担忧AI替代而承压，基本面依然稳健且建仓成本极低，因而继续持有；对于业绩确实下滑的LVMH、Copart与Nike，他进一步判断其属于宏观短期周期性冲击还是不可逆的结构性崩塌。由于判定其为周期性逆风，Khoo选择持股观望，并严格遵守纪律：在营收与净利润正式重拾上升趋势之前，坚决不对这些标的进行加仓摊平成本。 Adam Khoo的第四季度方案依赖于盈利支撑下的估值修复与中期选举历史胜率，其核心逻辑建立在不对市场转折点进行预测的“方舟式”资产组合之上。然而，这一策略的成效在很大程度上取决于AI资本开支周期的实际持续时长，以及自主智能体技术落地对传统互联网广告与中介生态所产生的冲击演变速度。

Source quotes

[22:51] Adam Khoo: I never buy after a wave up. I always buy after a wave down because after wave up, you get wave down, wave up, wave down. [11:00] Adam Khoo: you got to have one foot in the AI trade, but another foot in the anti-bubble trade.

Original transcript

[0:00] All right. Hi guys. So, it's been uh [0:01] quite a while since my last video and [0:03] the reason is because I've been very [0:05] preoccupied write writing my latest [0:07] book. As all of you know, it's been 13 [0:10] years since I wrote my last book, [0:12] Winning the Game of Stocks. And for some [0:15] reason, I had this inspiration that I [0:17] need to write my last book, you know, [0:20] and uh people around me were against the [0:22] idea. They say, "No one reads books [0:24] anymore. Why are you going to waste your [0:25] time?" But I felt that I I had to do it [0:27] because since I wrote my last book 13 [0:30] years ago to now, my investment [0:33] methodology, my insights have changed a [0:37] lot. I have learned so much. I have [0:40] evolved so much as an investor that it's [0:43] something that I really want to share. [0:44] And so I've been spending about 9 10 [0:47] hours a day every day writing and [0:49] writing and writing. And it's the [0:51] manuscript is almost done. It's 18 [0:53] chapters, almost 340 pages. Uh, but we [0:57] are looking to hopefully launch it by [0:59] early next year. Okay. So, anyway, [1:01] that's the reason why I've been really [1:02] busy and um, but I'm going to take a bit [1:04] of time to share with you guys because [1:06] I've been getting a lot of emails [1:08] saying, Adam, what's happening in the [1:09] markets? What opportunities out there? [1:12] And what are you doing in the next uh, 3 [1:15] months for the rest of the year? What do [1:16] you expect in the market? So I thought [1:18] I'll put together this very quick video [1:21] uh to just share with you some of my [1:22] thoughts. Okay. So first of all uh year [1:25] to date for the first 9 months uh in [1:29] full transparency I can share with you [1:30] how my portfolio is doing. For those of [1:33] you in my community in UIP uh you see [1:36] this every single day and you get my [1:38] monthly portfolio updates in detail. [1:41] Right. So year to date uh my portfolio [1:44] is up 26.61%. 61%. And I've mentioned [1:48] this many times that I've been managing [1:51] my money in my joint account with my [1:53] wife for the longest time. This is the [1:56] last 8 years of performance in blue [1:58] versus the S&P 500. And what I did was [2:01] in February this year, you can see I [2:03] withdrew 99% of my funds and put it into [2:08] a corporate account. And that's why I [2:10] can see the funding was in February. And [2:13] the main reason is because I'm getting [2:15] old and if I die suddenly uh personal [2:18] account is subjected to 40% estate tax [2:22] by the US authorities right but if I put [2:25] it under company account there's no [2:27] concern with any estate tax rates so [2:29] that's the main reason I I put that off [2:32] right uh you can see over the last 8 [2:34] years uh performing about 290% way above [2:37] the S&P 500 of 200% and this year year [2:41] to date way outperforming the S&P and [2:44] the NASDAQ as well. So where are my [2:47] gains coming from? You can see year to [2:49] date my biggest contributor of my [2:52] performance would be interestingly the [2:55] cyber security companies which I own. Uh [2:58] I've mentioned many times that in the [3:00] long run I think cyber security is a [3:02] very very strong secular investment [3:06] theme because you know with with [3:09] advanced AI and hacking all companies [3:11] need advanced cyber security. So this is [3:13] a very very strong sector that I think [3:15] will do really well. So I've been buying [3:17] up a lot of cyber security stocks and uh [3:20] holding them uh for the long run. Right. [3:23] So year to date my top performer is [3:26] actually Foret uh up 139% followed by [3:29] Crowd Strike 121% and Palo Alto up 115%. [3:34] So my three strongest stocks are in [3:36] cyber security and that is not something [3:39] I actually anticipated this year. I [3:42] thought yeah cyber security would be [3:43] really strong but I didn't know this [3:45] year be that strong. Okay. And then [3:48] followed by a lot of the still the AI [3:50] capex [3:52] stocks like SOXX that contains many of [3:54] the AI infrastructure companies up 80% [3:59] ASML up 57% and interestingly [4:03] Viva Systems one of the software [4:05] companies that got whacked by the [4:07] Cespocalypse up 35% and then IPO up 28% [4:12] this is a AI energy and infrastructure [4:15] stock Apple up 26% %. Interestingly, uh [4:18] Apple was laughed at at the start of the [4:21] year by not being involved in building [4:24] any AI at all and they are up 26%. [4:27] Nvidia up 22% and Palente up 18%. [4:31] But what about the stocks that have been [4:33] uh underperforming my portfolio? Nike of [4:36] course. So Nike has been uh a bit [4:39] disappointing down 43% year to date. But [4:43] the important thing is about allocation. [4:45] So those of you who are in my community [4:48] know that Nike is is less than 0.5% of [4:52] my portfolio. So even if even if it [4:54] drops 100% you know it it hardly affects [4:57] me right whereas these guys I've got big [5:00] allocations to them. So Nike down 43% [5:03] LVMH down 41% Copart down 32% pool down [5:08] 28% and Booking down 26%. Now whenever [5:11] I've got a stock that underperforms in [5:13] the portfolio or it has declined a lot, [5:16] do I sell it? Do I like cut loss on it? [5:19] It depends. So the first question I ask [5:21] is that why did it drop? Did it drop [5:23] purely because of sentiment and the [5:26] fundamentals are doing great or are the [5:28] fundamentals declining? That's the first [5:30] question I asked and the answer to that [5:32] question is that for all these stocks [5:34] here uh the fundamentals have declined. [5:38] Okay, except booking. So booking is one [5:41] where the fundamentals have not [5:42] declined. Fundamentals actually doing [5:43] very well but the share price has fallen [5:46] this year purely because of concern [5:49] uh that consumer [5:52] agents like Matters Muse that was just [5:54] launched uh may disrupt its business [5:57] model. Okay. Now having said that those [6:00] of you who are in my community you know [6:01] that booking is something where I bought [6:04] during COVID at near the bottom. So I'm [6:07] actually up significantly on booking. [6:08] I've got huge profits on booking. My [6:10] cost is very low and in fact I sold half [6:13] my booking already at the high when it [6:15] was overvalued [6:17] and what's left of my booking is just a [6:20] very small half of which I'm still very [6:22] profitable. So uh I'm not selling [6:24] booking because number one it's very [6:26] profitable. It's a great company and [6:27] it's down for sentimental not [6:30] sentimental but sentiment reasons and [6:32] not fundamentals. Okay. Now for the rest [6:34] of these companies their fundamentals [6:37] have declined. In other words, their [6:39] revenues have dropped, the profits have [6:41] dropped, they no long they no longer [6:43] pass my investment criteria. So, do I [6:46] sell them? Then I ask the next question. [6:49] Okay, so the revenues have dropped, the [6:51] profits have dropped. Is it temporary? [6:54] Is it fixable or is it something that's [6:57] long-term structural because they have [7:00] kind of like uh their economic mode has [7:03] deteriorated or it's going to take too [7:05] long to fix or they may not fix it? [7:07] That's the next question I ask. So if it [7:09] is something that I find it is fixable, [7:12] it is short-term cyclical, I hold it. I [7:14] don't add more shares, but I hold the [7:17] position. And if you look at LVMH, [7:20] you look at Copart, you look at pool, [7:23] revenues drop, profits drop. To me, it's [7:26] a short-term cyclical issue because of [7:28] short-term macro issues, right? But over [7:31] time uh once the cycle shifts their [7:35] revenues will grow again, profits will [7:37] grow again and they will come back very [7:39] strongly because their core economic [7:41] mode is still there. Okay. Now for Nike [7:45] this one is a bit tricky. Nike I've [7:48] talked a lot about it in in my past [7:50] videos. If you look at Nike I think it [7:54] is it is fixable. The business is [7:57] fixable. uh but it's taking longer than [8:00] everyone expected you know and I think [8:02] it'll take at least a year or two before [8:04] the issues can be fixed [snorts] now as [8:07] you know the old CEO screwed up the [8:09] company I've talked about it before the [8:10] new CEO has come in and people are [8:12] wondering okay is he doing anything yes [8:14] he has if you look at their last [8:16] earnings report the areas which the new [8:19] CEO focused on are actually doing very [8:22] well they have actually started growing [8:24] double digits for example look at Nike [8:26] their performance business, their [8:28] performance shoes like running, like [8:31] football, like um tennis, they are [8:35] actually growing double digits. Okay. [8:37] However, the entire Nike is still going [8:40] down because they are pulled down by [8:41] their lifestyle division, which is the [8:43] non athletic sports division. That's [8:46] still pulling out the business. So, the [8:48] next stage is that the new CEO, Elliot [8:50] Hill, is focusing on growing that part [8:52] of the business. So, in other words, [8:54] Nike I think is fixable, but it's going [8:56] to take longer than I expected. Am I [8:58] adding more shares? No, I'm not. So, all [9:00] these positions that you see Nike, LVMH, [9:03] and pool, I'm not adding more until I [9:06] see that they pass the criteria again. [9:10] Revenues must grow again, profits must [9:11] grow again. Right? So, that's to give [9:13] you a bit of insight there. And then the [9:16] other question will be, Adam, your [9:17] foret, your crowds, right? Your Palo [9:19] Alto, it's up significantly. In fact, [9:22] it's it's up quite a bit from my cost [9:25] price. And uh in fact, they are all [9:27] overvalued. Now, do I sell do I sell [9:31] these stocks because they're overvalued? [9:33] Because they're up two 300% above my [9:36] cost price. No. Why? Because um although [9:42] they're overvalued in the short term, [9:44] and yes, when you're overvalued, the [9:45] price may drop temporarily. Okay? But [9:48] I'm not selling because over the longer [9:50] term in the next 3 5 years I think [9:53] they're going to double and triple and [9:55] quadruple even more in the long run. And [9:57] the concern always is, you know, you try [10:00] to sell high and buy back low. Sometimes [10:02] you can't get back in before it runs off [10:05] without you, you know. So these are [10:06] companies that I want to hold for the [10:08] long run. I'm not selling them. Okay. [10:12] Now I I thought it's also interesting to [10:14] share this with you guys. Now, if you [10:16] recall in uh was it July, I had my [10:20] midyear event called the anti-bubble [10:22] mania. Remember that? So, I said that if [10:25] you look at the market, [10:27] there are certain parts of the market [10:28] that are in a bubble. They are very [10:30] overpriced like space stocks which have [10:33] come crashing down, right? Quantum [10:35] stocks have come crashing down. Uh what [10:38] else? Uh memory stocks, you know, has [10:41] come down quite a bit. So the bubble [10:43] stocks have already started deflating if [10:45] you guys recall and I said that there [10:48] are a lot of stocks that have been [10:49] disregarded, ignored [10:52] uh but are doing very well and they are [10:54] disregarded because they've got nothing [10:56] to do with AI. They are the anti-bubble [10:58] stocks if you recall. Right? So when I [11:00] told you that I was actually buying up a [11:02] lot of the anti-bubble stocks that have [11:05] got nothing to do with AI because once [11:06] the AI [11:08] capex growth slows which it has not then [11:11] the money will flow into the anti-bubble [11:14] stocks but no one knows when the AI [11:17] capex growth will slow because it's [11:19] still growing. could go on for the next [11:20] 1 2 3 years, right? So, like I said, you [11:23] got to have one foot in the AI trade, [11:27] but another foot in the anti-bubble [11:29] trade. And that's what I'm doing. So, [11:33] currently, you can see that if you look [11:34] at the stocks in my portfolio, I divide [11:37] them into three main buckets. Okay? The [11:40] first bucket are the stocks I own that [11:43] are directly involved in building the AI [11:45] infrastructure. These are stocks like [11:48] Nvidia, [11:50] ASML, Broadcom as well as ETFs like SOXX [11:54] and AIPO. So these are so-called the AI. [11:59] This is directly the AI trade. Okay, but [12:02] notice I don't own those which are [12:04] overpriced. [12:07] Okay, these are the ones that are [12:10] undervalued or fairly priced. So they [12:13] make up about 17% of my portfolio. Okay. [12:18] The second bucket of my stocks are the [12:21] hyperscalers. Hyperscalers are your [12:23] Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta. Now [12:26] if you look at hyperscalers, [12:30] a part of their business is focused on [12:32] building the AI capex, building data [12:34] centers, right? But not all their [12:35] business. Another part of their [12:37] business, they make money in other ways. [12:39] Like for Meta and Google, they make [12:41] money in advertising. And of course, now [12:43] Meta is going into consumer AI agents. [12:46] They're going to hardware like Meta [12:48] Glasses. Okay, you've got Amazon that [12:50] makes money in advertising in e-commerce [12:52] elogistics. So the hyperscalers, they [12:54] have got many many revenue streams. So [12:58] when the AI capex [13:01] growth slows, which will take the [13:03] biggest hit? The biggest hit will be [13:06] here, right? These guys will all drop [13:08] the most once the AI excitement slows [13:12] down. Okay. Now, how will this be [13:15] affected? Well, part of their business [13:19] may be affected, [13:21] but the other part may do very well [13:23] because when people start to think, [13:25] okay, if they're spending less on capex, [13:28] if Microsoft, Meta, Amazon spending less [13:30] on capex, that means their profits are [13:32] going to come back. So, they could [13:34] actually do very well. they could do [13:36] very well if the AI [13:39] uh capex growth slows or they may not. [13:43] All right, so this is kind of like a [13:44] 50/50 because they have got one foot in [13:47] AI and one foot out of the AI capex [13:51] buildup. Okay, then the third bucket is [13:55] the antibbubble [13:57] stocks. So these have nothing to do with [14:00] AI. These are your well I wouldn't say [14:03] nothing to do they've got nothing to do [14:04] with building AI but they benefit from [14:07] AI. So for example you look at your [14:10] banks like JP Morgan you look at uh [14:13] companies like S&P Global or insurance [14:16] companies they will benefit from AI [14:18] because AI increases productivity lowers [14:21] their cost increases their profit [14:22] margins. um and cyber security benefits [14:26] from AI as well but it's not building [14:28] AI. All right. So these are the [14:30] anti-bubble stocks. So notice in my [14:32] portfolio right now how I have balanced [14:34] my portfolio. So roughly I've got 17% of [14:38] my stocks purely in building AI 26% [14:43] into hyperscalers that are very [14:44] diversified and 57% the majority of my [14:49] stocks have nothing to do with building [14:52] AI. But they benefit from AI. These are [14:55] the antibbble and the cyber security [14:58] stocks [14:59] and I feel very comfortable with this [15:02] balance. Why? Because as the as the AI [15:06] uh excitement continues, this will [15:11] continue to push my portfolio up which [15:13] is what's happening this year. So you [15:14] can see that this year my AI capex [15:17] stocks are providing the biggest return. [15:20] So this is powering my portfolio right [15:22] and the hyperscalers are also powering [15:24] the portfolio and my anti-bubble [15:29] is not beating the market but it is [15:32] still contributing. [15:35] Okay. Right now once the AI capex growth [15:41] slows or they call the the AI bubble [15:43] burst which again no one knows when. It [15:45] could be next year it could be 3 years [15:48] from now. No one knows right? But when [15:49] that happens, what's going to happen is [15:51] this is going to drop a lot. Okay, by [15:54] that time it could be a lot higher in [15:55] price. Okay, this is going to be like, [15:57] you know, maybe go sideways a bit. It [15:59] may even go up a bit. But this this one [16:02] is going to Hallelujah. All right. And [16:05] this will then be the engine of my [16:08] portfolio that would help to cushion [16:12] this that will go down. [16:15] So notice the way I invest. I never [16:18] attempt to predict the market. I'm not [16:20] so arrogant to think, oh, I can predict [16:23] exactly when the bubble will burst. I [16:25] can predict where the market go. No. [16:27] Okay. And people who tell you they can [16:29] predict exactly when it's going to [16:30] happen, they are either delusional or [16:33] they are an idiot. Okay? No one can do [16:36] that. Right? So my analogy is this. [16:38] Instead of trying to predict when the [16:40] storm will come or when the flood will [16:42] come, I don't try to. I just make sure [16:45] that I build the strongest arc I can [16:48] ever build. So whenever the storm comes [16:49] comes or the rain comes, everyone gets [16:52] flooded to death, but I will survive, [16:56] okay? And I will prosper uh uh swimming [17:00] or not swimming, sorry, but floating on [17:02] the waves. Showing you a glimpse of the [17:04] portfolio. Like I said, uh my biggest [17:06] gainers are 40. You can see foret up [17:09] there up 212%. [17:12] I've got um Palo Alto up 148%. Uh Crowd [17:17] Strike up 217%. [17:20] And of course the hyperscalers [17:21] contributing quite well. Amazon up 119%, [17:25] Alphabet, Google up 221%, Nvidia up [17:28] 209%, you know, Meta up 114%. [17:32] And Microsoft up 67%. And some of my [17:35] other anti-bubble stocks like [17:37] healthcare, right? United Health up 26% [17:39] was up a lot more but it's retraced a [17:41] bit. I may be adding more to United [17:43] Health. HCA Healthcare up 32%. Uh and [17:47] Global X Defense up 17%. You know just [17:50] to name a few. So where are we going for [17:52] the rest of the year? As always no one [17:54] can predict for sure but if you look at [17:56] the technicals and fundamentals the [17:59] probability is that the market will go a [18:01] lot higher by the end of the year. Why? [18:03] Number one let's take a look at the [18:05] technical analysis. So based on [18:07] technicals, you can see the market is on [18:09] a very very nice uptrend, continues to [18:11] be on an uptrend where the 20 EMA, the [18:14] red dotted line is above the 40 EMA. So [18:17] the short-term trend is upwards. You've [18:19] got the 50 simple moving average in blue [18:22] above the 150 simple moving average [18:24] that's sloping upwards. And you've got a [18:26] 200 simple moving average sloping [18:28] upwards. So all the moving averages are [18:30] sloping upwards. They're in the right [18:32] sequence. We're on a very very clear [18:35] uptrend and of course you can see the [18:38] waves on the uptrend wave up wave down [18:40] wave up wave down wave up wave down wave [18:42] up wave down wave up wave down wave up [18:44] wave down wave up and the trend will [18:47] continue. So technicals say trend is up. [18:50] Okay, next question is if you look at [18:52] the overall market is it expensive? No. [18:54] In fact the market is cheaper today [18:58] than it was at the start of the year. [19:01] How can this be? Well, it be uh you can [19:04] look at the forward PE ratio of the S&P [19:07] 500. Now, uh as of 12th October, uh the [19:12] current PE ratio, forward PE is 19.1 [19:15] times. And it is currently below the [19:18] 5-year average of 19.8 and equal to the [19:21] 10ear average of 19.1. So, in other [19:23] words, the market is not expensive. It [19:25] is not cheap. It is actually fairly [19:27] priced. And if you look at where we were [19:29] at the start of the year, the forward PE [19:31] was 22 times and now it's 19.1. And [19:34] that's why I say the market is cheaper [19:36] now than it was at the start of the [19:39] year. So how can it be? The S&P has gone [19:42] up 14% in price. How can it be cheaper? [19:45] Because the earnings have gone up more [19:48] than the price. Quarter 1, earnings went [19:51] up 28%. Quarter two, earnings went up [19:53] 38%. Quarter three, quarter four not out [19:57] yet, but the forecast for the full year [19:59] is that the S&P 500 aggregate earnings [20:03] will grow about 32%. So if the earnings [20:06] are growing 32%. [20:08] But the the share price is up only 14%. [20:12] So the share price has still got quite a [20:15] bit more room to run in order to justify [20:17] the earnings growth this year. So like I [20:20] said, don't be surprised if the next 3 [20:22] months uh the market can go up another 5 [20:25] to 10%. Again, no one can predict for [20:27] sure, but don't be surprised if it [20:29] happens. At the same time, remember that [20:31] this year are the US midterm election [20:34] years. And historically, the US midterm [20:37] election from November to next year is [20:40] one of the most bullish periods of stock [20:43] market history. Now, let's take a look [20:45] at history and you can see what I'm [20:48] talking about. So since the 19 since [20:50] 1950 these are all the midterm election [20:54] years uh 1950 1954 1958 all together 19 [20:59] midterm election years. So what happened [21:02] from November uh which is going to come [21:04] up really soon the the midterm elections [21:06] will be 4th of November which will be [21:08] next month on the 4th right so coming [21:10] really soon. So what happens from there [21:13] to 3 months later which will be [21:16] December, January, February, February [21:18] next year. Uh what happens 6 months [21:20] later? What happens 12 months later? So [21:22] historically can see what happens from [21:25] November onwards is that 3 months later [21:29] the market has been up 95% [21:32] of all past midterm year since 1950. [21:36] Right? And the average gain of the [21:38] market 8.1% median gain 8.6%. How about [21:43] six months later, six months after [21:45] November elections, market is up 100% of [21:49] the time with a average gain of 16%, [21:52] median gain of 14%. And what happens 12 [21:56] months after the midterm elections? The [21:58] market is up 100% of the time based on [22:00] the last 19 occurrences. Average gain [22:04] 22%, median gain 23%. So if history [22:08] repeats this year, there's a 100% 100% [22:11] chance the market will be higher [22:14] 6 months 9 months from November and a [22:17] 95% chance it'll be higher 3 months from [22:20] November, regardless of which party [22:24] wins, the Senate and the House. Now, how [22:27] about individual stocks? Can they go [22:29] higher for this year and for next year? [22:31] Again, no one can predict for sure. The [22:33] only thing I can look at is number one, [22:35] what's the trend? Is it on an uptrend or [22:37] is it on a downtrend? Number two, is it [22:39] still undervalued or is it way [22:42] overvalued? Right? So, let's take a look [22:44] at some of the uh stocks and let's start [22:46] with the hyperscalers uh which is in [22:49] bucket number two. So, first buck uh [22:51] first hyperscaler which is in fact my [22:53] biggest position. Uh, I've said many [22:56] times before that if you were to put a [22:58] gun to my head and say, Adam, you have [23:00] to put your entire family's net worth [23:02] into one stock, what would it be? It [23:05] would be Amazon because it is the most [23:07] diversified with the most profit margin [23:11] expansion potential once they fully [23:14] deploy AI and robotics. Okay, so if you [23:18] look at Amazon, uh, where are we right [23:20] now? [23:21] So you can see Amazon is clearly on this [23:24] very nice uptrend over there, right? On [23:26] an uptrend. Wave up, wave down, wave up, [23:28] wave down, wave up, wave down, wave up, [23:30] wave down, wave up, wave down. And and [23:31] and the pattern will just continue. [23:33] These are looking at the weekly candles. [23:35] Um is it overvalued? Yeah, it is [23:37] slightly overvalued. The intrinsic value [23:39] is $233. [23:41] So it is slightly overpriced, not way [23:44] overpriced. Uh so it should continue to [23:47] continue to trend up. But again, the [23:49] discipline is that if I wanted to buy [23:51] more shares, I won't until it uh waves [23:55] down nearer to the intrinsic value or [23:58] below the intrinsic value. Uh you can [24:00] see these are what I call the support [24:02] levels where I will add shares. If it [24:04] retraces here, I add here, retrace, I [24:07] will add, retrace, I'll add. So these [24:09] are levels where the price after it [24:11] waves down, it tends to reverse up [24:13] because these are significant [24:15] significant technical support levels. [24:17] Okay. So that's Amazon slightly [24:20] overvalued. If you look at Microsoft, [24:22] where's Microsoft right now? Microsoft [24:24] is undervalued, right? Intrinsic value [24:26] is 570. It is undervalued. But would I [24:30] buy right here? No. Why? Because again, [24:33] I never buy after a wave up. I always [24:35] buy after a wave down because after wave [24:37] up, you get wave down, wave up, wave [24:39] down. So you can see here you've got [24:41] wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down, [24:43] wave up going towards intrinsic value. [24:46] It's still undervalued, but usually I [24:48] like to add on a on a pullback near to a [24:50] support level. So, uh, next I can show [24:54] you would be what's the other one? Yeah, [24:57] Google, right? Alphabet. [24:59] And Alphabet has been Oh, Alphabet's [25:02] undervalued right now, right? It was [25:04] overvalued and then it's come back below [25:06] the intrinsic value of 374. And you can [25:10] see nicely wave up, wave down, wave up, [25:13] wave down, wave up. is kind of like [25:15] consolidating and would probably push [25:17] higher uh in the next couple of weeks. [25:19] All right, so this is okay. It's [25:21] undervalued and it's not exactly at the [25:24] support level. In fact, it bounced off [25:26] the support and it could be launching [25:28] back above that. But again, no [25:30] guarantees. We're just looking at trend. [25:31] We're looking at intrinsic value. On the [25:33] other hand, I think that the hyperscaler [25:35] that has got the uh most potential [25:37] short-term upside and of course [25:39] long-term upside as well. It's actually [25:41] Meta Platforms that owns Facebook and [25:44] WhatsApp. And the reason is because of [25:47] number one, they launched the Amuse app [25:50] that has become the most popular [25:51] downloaded app in the US right now. It's [25:54] not available outside the US. In fact, [25:55] it's number one on the Google Play Store [25:57] and the number one on um Apple App [26:01] Store. Uh, in fact, it's been very [26:03] impressive. You can see that the Muse [26:04] app has hit 7 million downloads in less [26:08] than 30 days. Now, if you compare it to [26:10] Chat GPT, Chat GPT uh hits 7 million [26:14] downloads only after 75 days. Grock took [26:19] about [26:22] uh Grock took about [26:24] 165 days and Gemini the standalone app [26:28] it took 180 days to hit 3 million 3 [26:32] million downloads but Muse is so far the [26:36] fastest used app. All right. So what is [26:40] Muse? Muse is uh the consumer agentic AI [26:44] app that people now can use uh to do [26:47] shopping for them to book hotels, book [26:49] airlines for them, uh can send emails [26:52] for them and stuff like that. So, it's [26:53] becoming really popular and I'm really [26:54] looking forward to it coming to to [26:57] Singapore and the rest of the world. And [26:59] of course, Meta has launched a whole [27:01] series of new hardware, those of their [27:03] Meta glasses. And Meta is kind of like u [27:06] pivoting to become the next Apple uh if [27:09] you ask me. And I think it's very [27:10] possible that they they could actually [27:12] pull it off. Now [27:16] very soon after Meta launched Muse uh [27:19] Chat GPT has launched DOTS which is [27:21] their version of the consumer AI agent. [27:24] And you can see that in the near future, [27:26] we will all have our own AI agents that [27:28] will help us to go out there and to buy [27:30] stuff, to compare prices, book hotels, [27:33] book airlines, uh buy books, uh send [27:37] emails, you it'll do everything for us. [27:39] Okay. And the question is what is the [27:41] implication to other businesses where [27:44] instead of a human being going to [27:46] Amazon, a human being going to AODA [27:49] now agents are going to go on our behalf [27:53] and to make these purchases. What what's [27:55] the implication? Of course there could [27:56] be some negative implications on certain [27:58] stocks and some positive implications. [28:01] So here's a very quick overview about [28:03] the winners and losers of the new [28:06] consumer AI agent revolution which I [28:08] think matter has just launched. Okay. So [28:12] first of all a negative impact which [28:14] websites will be the most negatively [28:16] impacted or potentially would be [28:19] interestingly adfunded search [28:21] marketplaces. Why? Because now a human [28:24] being goes to Amazon and they they see [28:27] ads, right? And that's how Amazon gets [28:30] paid through the advertisements. But if [28:32] human beings don't go to Amazon anymore, [28:34] but it's all these agents, these AI [28:37] agents, then these ads become worthless. [28:39] So could it hit Amazon's advertising [28:43] business? Yes, it could. Right now, am I [28:45] concerned because Amazon is my biggest [28:47] position? Not really. Because again, [28:49] Amazon is so diversified. Yeah, maybe [28:52] they could lose a bit on the advertising [28:54] side, but remember that their cloud [28:57] business will benefit significantly from [28:59] aic AI. So will their e-commerce, so [29:02] will their logistics. So kind of like [29:04] they lose one, but they make on the [29:06] other three or four. So overall, I don't [29:09] think it's going to be uh negative, [29:12] right? Although that part of the [29:13] business may be affected. How about [29:15] Google search? Could Google search be [29:16] affected as well? Possibly, potentially. [29:19] their advertising business could take a [29:20] hit. But again, they are diversified. [29:22] They have got their cloud business and [29:24] and a lot of other stuff, right? But if [29:26] you look at uh specific uh companies [29:29] like you know you know Pinterest or [29:32] those that are not so diversified, they [29:34] could be hit uh really badly like [29:36] Snapchat or or Pinterest or even Reddit. [29:39] So I wouldn't touch those that are not [29:41] as diversified and as dominant. Okay. Uh [29:45] the other type of companies that could [29:47] get hit potentially again it's not a [29:49] guarantee you never can't tell the [29:50] future would be any kind of middleman in [29:53] the market. So that's why booking got [29:55] hit right but uh but booking still owns [29:59] a lot of the inventory where the agent [30:01] still has to go through booking in order [30:03] to get the discounted inventory. So [30:05] booking still retains that mode but [30:08] other players that may not have their [30:10] mode or resources could get hit a lot [30:12] worse. like for example uh Trip Advisor [30:15] or NG or cars.com and then of course [30:18] companies like call centers outsource [30:21] support uh like some of these sticker [30:23] symbols could be affected negatively as [30:25] well and of course uh like Upwork Fiverr [30:28] it's all disrupted because you know why [30:30] would you need them when you can get you [30:32] know AI agents to do all this work for [30:34] you but on the other hand these are the [30:38] stocks that could be positively impacted [30:40] in an a consumer AI agentic world like [30:44] for example your agent platforms and [30:46] models Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet. So [30:49] you can see again Google gets hit on [30:51] advertising but they benefit on cloud [30:54] and their agentic platforms. So that's [30:56] why they're very well diversified. Uh [30:58] payment rails like Visa, Mastercard, uh [31:02] PayPal but PayPal has got other problems [31:04] so I wouldn't touch it, right? and [31:05] Shopify uh open commerce merchants like [31:09] Walmart again Shopify and and some of [31:13] the other ones and of course compute and [31:15] infrastructure who will benefit a lot [31:17] your Nvidia okay your Broadcom your TSM [31:21] why because you need a lot more of [31:23] compute power to run these AI agents [31:26] which comes to my last part how about [31:29] the AI infrastructure companies are they [31:32] still attractively priced I think some [31:34] of them still are I'm still holding some [31:36] of them. So of course the granddaddy of [31:38] them all is Nvidia and of course once we [31:42] go to physical AI which is robotics [31:45] Nvidia has got a very powerful uh role [31:48] to play in that as well in training the [31:51] robotics um training robots right so if [31:54] you look at Nvidia what's the intrinsic [31:56] value oh I forgot to mention meta let's [31:58] go back to meta again sorry I was too [32:00] carried away I skipped matter so like I [32:03] said I think meta has got one of the [32:05] biggest upsides upside potential because [32:08] number one it is quite undervalued. If [32:10] you take a look at the intrinsic value [32:11] of meta [32:13] you can see that [32:15] um let me just log in here. [32:29] Yeah. So currently matter is still 17% [32:33] undervalued based on the $900 intrinsic [32:36] value. So it's still undervalued. But [32:38] again bear in mind that this $900 [32:40] intrinsic value which is from oracle [32:41] value is a very conservative estimate. [32:44] Very conservative, right? But if you [32:46] take the actual discounted cash flow [32:51] based on fact sets [32:54] uh consensus estimates consensus analyst [32:57] estimates which is 18% growth in the [33:01] next 5 years and long-term growth in 20 [33:04] uh sorry uh 18% 3 to 5 year growth and [33:08] 24% longerterm growth then you're [33:11] looking at an intrinsic value of $2,000 [33:14] on matter $2,000 [33:16] right which is double the price today or [33:19] based on a discounted free cash flow [33:21] terminal 1,300. [33:24] So again this is the valuation if you [33:26] take these growth rates from fact at [33:31] face value but because you know oracle [33:34] value is being conservative it applies [33:38] uh a ceiling to the growth rate of 15% [33:41] not more so it reduces the valuation to [33:44] $900 of which it is still 17% [33:47] undervalued now again having said that [33:50] doesn't mean that matter can't go down [33:51] in the short term because in a short [33:52] term prices are driven by, you know, [33:55] manipulation and emotions. But what I'm [33:57] saying is that it's worth at least 900 [33:59] bucks. That's what I'm saying. All [34:01] right, which you will get there. Uh I [34:03] don't know when. Maybe maybe next week, [34:05] maybe next year, maybe end of the year, [34:07] I don't know, right? But it's worth [34:08] $900. And if you look at the uh the [34:12] the price action, you can see it's been [34:14] in a bit of a consolidation here, right? [34:17] primarily because of the uh social media [34:21] addiction case that has been weighing [34:23] down. But now that everything's being [34:24] resolved and they just launched a new AI [34:26] frontier model, uh it could see a [34:29] breakout and we could see huge upside [34:32] for Meta Platforms. Okay, so this is one [34:34] of my bigger positions as well. Uh [34:37] finally, let me talk about Nvidia, which [34:38] like I said is the granddaddy of AI [34:40] infrastructure. [34:42] Is it uh overvalued? I don't think so. [34:45] In fact, if you look at Nvidia over [34:46] here, you may be surprised to know that [34:50] on many measures, it is still [34:52] undervalued. Okay? So, the intrinsic [34:54] value is $39. Now, it's 2 to4. It's 27% [34:59] undervalued. [35:01] And this is based on a discounted cash [35:04] flow model. [35:06] If you look at the PE ratio, [35:09] the forward PE is only 14 times [35:12] earnings. I mean, just look at 4p. It [35:14] looks really cheap, right? You click on [35:15] intrinsic value over here. [35:18] You can see that no matter what method [35:20] you use to value Nvidia, the share price [35:24] is way below all the different valuation [35:26] methods. Okay, it's been a long video, [35:29] but in summary, what's my game plan for [35:31] quarter 4 is to stay invested in my [35:35] three buckets. Bucket number one, AI [35:37] infrastructure like Nvidia, like [35:39] Broadcom, like SOXX. And of course, the [35:42] ones I own are not overvalued. In fact, [35:44] if anything like Nvidia is undervalued. [35:46] The second bucket would be the [35:49] hyperscalers, which I mentioned [35:50] Microsoft and and and Google and Meta, [35:54] which I think has got the most upside [35:56] right now because of their Muse agent [35:59] and the launch of a lot of their new AI [36:02] frontier models. And the third bucket [36:04] which is the anti-bubble bucket uh which [36:07] has done pretty okay this year although [36:09] it's not been the the top performer of [36:11] my portfolio but once AI growth slows [36:13] down is going to rotate into that. And [36:16] finally, like I showed you, being a [36:18] midterm election year, uh statistically [36:21] there's a 95% chance the market will be [36:24] higher 3 months after November and 100% [36:27] chance is going to be higher 6 months [36:30] and 12 months uh from November. And [36:33] those are pretty good odds that I like [36:35] to be uh invested with. Thank you for [36:38] listening and as always, may the markets [36:40] be with you. If you want to catch my [36:41] latest videos, click on the subscribe [36:43] button right now. Click on the bell so [36:45] you get instant notifications once I [36:47] upload my latest video. If you want to [36:50] check out my online courses, go on to [36:52] piranhaprofits.com [36:54] where you're going to learn how to [36:55] invest and how to trade the financial [36:57] markets and create an income from all [36:59] around the world. If you want to join my [37:01] live Wealthacademy program, go on to [37:04] wealthacademy global.com and find out [37:06] more about how you can learn investing [37:08] and trading live online. This is Adam [37:10] Coup and may the markets be with