```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Market Stress Transmission Flow
accDescr: Diagram showing how treasury yield surges impact credit default swaps and equities.
subgraph Macro["宏观与信用风险"]
A["美债收益率攀升"] --> B["企业借贷成本预期走高"]
B --> C["AI 基建公司 CDS 飙升<br/>(Oracle / CoreWeave)"]
end
subgraph Equities["权益资产分化"]
C --> D["高弹性芯片及设备股杀跌<br/>(AMD / Micron / ARM)"]
A --> E["防守型与低 AI 敞口龙头走强<br/>(Apple / Walmart / Costco)"]
end
```
- **账户波动：** 公开账户日内最大浮亏一度触及 200,000 美元，盘尾收窄至单日下跌 144,000 美元。
- **权重回撤：** 甲骨文（Oracle）在过去一年内累计回撤高达 56%。
- **核心论点引述：** 主讲人指出，当高波动再度降临市场时，“Whenever we got craziness in the market, I just feel bad if I don't put out some videos and talk to you guys about my take on things and whatnot.”
---
[02:31](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=151s) AI 基建信用危机与半导体板块抛售链条
甲骨文近期的异动释放出明确的警讯——其信用违约互换（CDS）正在大幅走高，反映出信贷市场对该类公司违约风险的担忧急剧升温。陷入同样困境的还有 CoreWeave 等一众人工智能基础设施服务商，整个 AI 算力与基础设施板块的债务保险成本普遍飙涨。不过，甲骨文当前的恐慌程度尚未达到 7 月份触及 114 美元低点时的极致状态；如果市场恐慌情绪继续蔓延，该股仍有进一步下探的风险。
- **价格与估值锚点：** 甲骨文 7 月极致恐慌低点约为 114 美元；美光科技自 6 月 1200 美元上方回调至约 900 美元。
- **产业链传导机制：** 算力买方 CDS 飙升 $\rightarrow$ 资本开支持续性存疑 $\rightarrow$ 上游芯片及设备供应商估值压缩。
- **核心观点引述：** 主讲人分析指出：“This move is screaming that the credit default swaps are going really south. And when I say south, I really mean north. It's not good.”
在多数科技股遭遇猛烈抛售之际，苹果（Apple）却逆势刷新历史新高。华尔街将苹果视为万亿美元市值阵营中最具确定性的“最干净的故事”（Cleanest Story）。苹果并未像其他同行那样在 AI 基础设施上进行激进的资本开支烧钱，因此即便未来全行业 AI 支出增速放缓，苹果的资产负债表与主营业务也不会受到直接冲击。此外，伴随折叠屏或新硬件形态（Duo）的潜在预期，iPhone、iPad 及 Mac 的平均销售单价（ASP）有望走高，叠加强劲的高毛利服务业务（Services），使其成为避风港资产。
随后主讲人提及 CNBC 财经频道播放的一组关于散户持仓与参与度的关键数据，展示了当前个人投资者仓位见顶的潜在宏观警讯，并呼吁观众在 X 平台关注其日常宏观图表与实战投资建议。
- **核心观点引述：** 谈及华尔街资金抱团苹果的避险心态，主讲人强调：“When it comes to Apple, they're the cleanest story in all of the trillion dollar boys club, the cleanest story. They're the ones that is not spending huge on AI.”
- **对机构短视的评价：** 谈及对冲基金调仓换股跑输大盘，主讲人直言：“They have access to supposedly the best talent in the world, and yet they can't even beat the S&P 500. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that they're always trying to chase the market around short term. It's such a silly strategy.”
[10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=600s) Declining Household Stock Ownership and the Necessity of Starting Early
Addressing data he shared on X, the speaker highlights a troubling trend: direct household stock ownership has fallen by 200 basis points (two percentage points) over recent years, and overall stock participation has declined in tandem. With median stock holdings hovering between $56,000 and $77,000, those completely absent from equities have watched their relative net worth stagnate or erode during one of the greatest bull runs in history. Looking at the dramatic 33% gap separating households that own equities from those that do not, he passionately warns that staying out of the market guarantees long-term hardship. He sharply dismisses the common objection that one needs substantial wealth before beginning to trade, sharing that he started investing when his total net worth was a mere $1,000, putting $300 into his very first position—which represented nearly a third of everything he had to his name.
Starting early with little capital offers the immense benefits of learning the rules of the game without risking life-altering sums, while giving compound interest decades to work its compounding magic. For those who feel they missed their youth, he notes that his private investment community has already guided hundreds of members to seven-figure portfolios and between 700 to 1,000 members into multi-six-figure territory.
> “If you don’t own stocks, you’re just going to put yourself in a huge financial jeopardy, huge financial problem, right?”
- **Direct household ownership:** Down roughly 2 percentage points (200 bps) over the past few years.
- **Median equity holdings:** Sitting between $56,000 and $77,000 across participating households.
- **Ownership divide:** A roughly 33% wealth divergence between equity-owning households and non-owners.
- **Starting capital:** Began with a total net worth of $1,000 and an initial $300 investment.
---
[12:15](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=735s) Career Motivation, Margin Traps, and the Myth of Having “No Time”
The speaker recalls how being active in the market served as a direct catalyst for his personal career ambitions. While working an entry-level position at Walgreens, he found himself able to scrape together only $200 to $400 a month for equities. Dreaming of putting away $1,000 or $2,000 monthly forced him off the couch to send out resumes, ace interviews, and secure a higher-paying job that enabled him to immediately quintuple his monthly contributions to over $1,500. He cautions viewers never to chase faster progress through margin borrowing, calling leverage an outright financial trap. Instead, the focus must stay squarely on expanding one's income through side hustles, new business ventures, or career advancement.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Income and Investment Feedback Loop
accDescr: Diagram showing how starting to invest drives motivation to increase earned income and expand market contributions without using leverage.
subgraph Mindset ["Market Feedback Loop"]
A["Start Small in Stocks"] --> B["Desire Higher Monthly Contributions"]
B --> C["Upgrade Career or Side Hustle"]
C --> D["5X Monthly Cash Flow"]
D --> A
end
D -.->|Avoid| E["Margin Debt Trap"]
```
However, he vents intense frustration at investors who finally begin earning solid money only to squander their earnings or claim they no longer have time to analyze businesses. He calls out prospective members who use a packed schedule as an excuse to dodge vetting calls for his private community, bluntly labeling them liars. Drawing on his own life, he points out that he balances a wife, three children, multiple operating businesses, and hundreds of positions, just as he previously balanced 48-hour workweeks at Kwik Trip across three simultaneous jobs.
> “Everybody has the time; if I had the time, you got the time.”
- **Career progression:** Leveraged his desire to invest more capital to jump from $300/month at Walgreens to $1,500+/month.
- **Leverage warning:** Strictly advises against using margin to artificially scale up portfolio size.
- **Time management:** Dismisses lack of time as an excuse, citing his past experience working 48 hours a week at Kwik Trip while juggling three jobs.
---
[15:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=900s) Long-Term Wealth Accumulation, Parenting, and Philanthropic Philosophy
Transitioning into a broader philosophy of money, the speaker reflects on the ultimate purpose of compounding wealth over a 20-, 30-, or 40-year horizon. Anyone executing this strategy successfully at a high level will eventually generate far more capital than they could ever spend on houses, luxury cars, first-rate healthcare, and vacations. Addressing inheritance, he explains why he disagrees with the idea of passing billions of dollars down to his children, arguing that handing unearned fortunes to heirs leaves them floating aimlessly on yachts and wasting their potential. Growing up with an accomplished father already provides immense systemic privilege and insider financial knowledge; thus, his legacy capital would do far more good serving underprivileged communities through philanthropy.
> “I want them to grow up with a mindset of like, we’re going to go get it, and we’re going to maybe take things even beyond what my dad could do.”
He then cues a broadcast clip featuring hedge fund titan Paul Tudor Jones discussing the Robin Hood Foundation's long-standing partnership with Good Shepherd Services, a New York City non-profit supporting 30,000 children run by Sister Paulette and successor Michelle. The speaker echoes the foundation's core conviction: a child's birth circumstances must never be permitted to determine their future potential.
- **Philanthropic focus:** Robin Hood Foundation's 30+ year support of Good Shepherd Services in NYC.
- **Scale of impact:** Good Shepherd Services serves roughly 30,000 children across New York City.
- **Inheritance mindset:** Prioritizes teaching children business acumen and a "go-getter" drive over leaving them billions in passive inheritance.
---
[17:48](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=1068s) Paul Tudor Jones on the 1999 Market Parallel and the Two-Speed AI Economy
The interview with Paul Tudor Jones turns from non-profit work to macro markets on a morning packed with major bank earnings. The interviewer reminds Tudor Jones of their discussion from twelve months prior, when Jones remarked that the market felt remarkably like 1999—noting that in 1999, equities still surged another 40% before topping out. Tudor Jones confirms that his perspective remains unchanged: the market continues to exhibit the distinct hallmarks of a "two-speed" regime, completely bifurcated between companies aggressively adopting artificial intelligence and those that are not, with the two camps moving in opposite directions just as tech and old-economy stocks diverged in 1999.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Bifurcated Two-Speed Market Dynamics
accDescr: Diagram illustrating the parallel between the 1999 tech bubble divergence and the modern AI-driven market bifurcation.
subgraph Cycle ["Market Divergence Pattern"]
direction TB
M["Macro Environment"] --> AI["AI Adopters / Tech Leaders"]
M --> NonAI["Non-AI / Traditional Sectors"]
AI -->|Aggressive Capital Inflow| Up["Surging Valuation Multiples"]
NonAI -->|Capital Outflow / Neglect| Down["Stagnant or Falling Valuations"]
end
```
Tudor Jones recounts polling a recent conference of roughly 200 financial professionals to ask how many had actively traded through the 1999 cycle. While the interviewer guesses that maybe 10% raised their hands, Jones reveals that only about 20% had been in the business back then. Reacting to the clip, the speaker breaks down the math: anyone who was executing major market trades during the peak of the dot-com bubble in 1999 would have to be at least 60 years old today, meaning the vast majority of today's market participants lack firsthand institutional memory of navigating a historic bubble.
> “Boy, it still feels like 1999 at a two-speed market.”
- **Historical comparison:** Paul Tudor Jones compares current conditions to 1999, where a bifurcated market surged an additional 40% before reaching its ultimate peak.
- **The two-speed divergence:** Capital is aggressively rewarding AI adopters while punishing non-AI sectors.
- **Trading demographic:** At an industry conference of 200 participants, only ~20% were actively trading during the 1999 dot-com era, meaning roughly 80% of current operators lack firsthand experience with that cycle.
在访谈片段中，传奇投资者保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）与主持人探讨了当前市场与历史行情的相似之处。主持人回忆起自己在1999年大学刚毕业并在《纽约时报》撰写并购（M&A）相关报道的经历，那正是当年牛市泡沫最鼎盛的时期。琼斯明确指出，当前的市场环境与当年如出一辙：“We are literally exactly like 1999 in the sense that we have kind of a two-speed economy.”（我们在字面意义上完全就像1999年一样，拥有某种‘双速经济’）。对于专业基金而言，眼下最关键的问题是很难看清12月31日以后的长期演变，但基于中期选举周期等历史规律，市场往往在10月下旬至11月初探底，随后在第四季度迎来强劲上攻。然而，谈及未来更长期的前景时，琼斯预警道：“If I was thinking for a year from now, 2027 is going to be really, really challenging for the stock market.”（如果让我考虑一年后的情况，2027年对股市来说将是非常、非常具有挑战性的一年）。
在谈到AI的底层风险时，琼斯分享了自己的实际运作经验：“So we run three quant teams internally, and then I have another business, sports analytics. And so we've been using neural nets forever, AI, forms of AI forever. And again, the difficulty with it is that you know what the output is, but you don't know why or how you got there.”（我们在内部运营着三支量化团队，我还有另一家体育分析业务，我们长期以来一直在使用神经网络和各种形式的AI。它的困难之处在于，你知道输出结果是什么，但却不知道为什么或者如何得出这个结果）。当面对数十亿甚至数万亿次排列组合时，缺乏“可解释性”（Interpretability）构成了AI最大的本质风险。
[30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=1800s) Real Estate and Homebuilder Stocks Plunge to 52-Week Lows
The host surveys the real estate and housing-adjacent sectors, highlighting that widespread carnage has pushed a long list of notable names directly to or near 52-week lows. Rocket Companies stands out as being down to its 52-week low by a wide margin, though the host views it as a prime vehicle to rebound aggressively once macroeconomic headwinds clear, remarking: “So if the real estate market comes back in 2027 look for Rocket to be a rocket ship right okay.” The homebuilders show a similar wave of severe compression: PulteGroup, Lennar, D.R. Horton, and KB Home have all sunk to their respective 52-week lows. Toll Brothers has managed to hold up relatively better than its peers and is not quite at its annual trough, but Pool Corporation is trading right around its 52-week low.
The most dramatic deterioration in this cohort belongs to Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO). The stock suffered a steep downward spiral, plummeting to around the $700 level after having traded well above $2,000 not long ago. The host emphasizes that these severe drawdowns across mortgage providers, homebuilders, and credit scorers paint an unmistakable picture of how deeply higher interest rates have frozen and battered the entire housing ecosystem.
- **Rocket Companies**: Hovering at a pronounced 52-week low, positioned as a high-beta recovery play if housing rebounds.
- **Homebuilder benchmarks**: PulteGroup, Lennar, D.R. Horton, and KB Home are all sitting at or near 52-week lows.
- **Relative resilience**: Toll Brothers has fared slightly better and avoided the full brunt of the declines hitting other builders.
- **Auxiliary housing names**: Pool Corporation sits near its 52-week low.
- **FICO collapse**: Plunged from over $2,000 to approximately $700.
---
[31:12](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=1872s) Options Sentiment and the "Buy the Dip" Horizon
Turning to media commentary, the host reacts to an analysis by RBC options strategist Amy Wu Silverman regarding market sentiment and the derivatives landscape. The conversation notes that the options market continues to price in upside momentum, carrying forward an options and volatility regime that emerged post-COVID and gained traction during the meme-stock era of GameStop and AMC. In that environment, retail investors discovered that upside momentum often begets further momentum, reinforcing a persistent belief that every drawdown is an automatic buying opportunity.
The host steps in to draw a critical line regarding investment time horizons when implementing a dip-buying strategy. Looking out multiple years makes stepping into weakness an obvious statistical advantage, whereas short-term trading is purely speculative: “Listen, if your focus is five years, yes, you buy the dip. If your focus is the next two weeks, don't buy the dip.” The host stresses that trying to guess stock movements over a two-week span is a gamble, whereas historically, deeper sell-offs offer substantially more compelling entry points for long-term investors.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Investor Time Horizon Strategy
accDescr: Contrasting short-term trading risk against long-term buy the dip strategy.
subgraph Outcome["Execution & Strategy"]
Gamble["Do Not Buy the Dip<br/>'Complete gamble' on short-term noise"]
Accumulate["Buy the Dip<br/>Bigger price drops create larger opportunities"]
end
ST --> Gamble
LT --> Accumulate
```
---
[32:15](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=1935s) The "Paddling Duck" Market: Low VIX Masking Under-the-Surface Turmoil
The discussion shifts to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which sits around the 15 handle—an unusually suppressed level by historical standards given the turbulence in individual names. Silverman uses an analogy to explain why the headline index looks deceptive, observing: “It looks pretty calm and smooth on the surface, but those little duck feet are violently paddling underneath.” Beneath this placid surface, dramatic multi-standard deviation dispersion is unfolding across individual sectors, most clearly demonstrated by the stark divergence between software and semiconductor stocks.
Because some industry groups are surging while others are getting crushed, these internal crosscurrents effectively cancel one another out, leaving the aggregate index level muted. The host fully agrees with Silverman's assessment, calling her breakdown completely spot-on before wrapping up the stream, thanking viewers, offering well wishes, and reminding everyone to check the links in the description for his social channels and private group.
- **VIX level**: Hovering near 15, reflecting historic complacency at the headline index level.
- **Paddling duck dynamic**: Calm surface index performance masking violent, multi-standard deviation sector swings underneath.
- **Sector dispersion**: Violent divergence visible when contrasting software performance directly against semiconductors.
- **Offsetting moves**: Simultaneous rallies and sell-offs cancel each other out, artificially flattening broad index volatility.
## Notable quotes
> [31:12](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=1872s) If your focus is five years, yes, you buy the dip. If your focus is the next two weeks, don't buy the dip. — 浑水摸鱼清源
> [20:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=1200s) We are literally exactly like 1999 in the sense that we have kind of a two-speed economy. — 保罗·都铎·琼斯 (Paul Tudor Jones)
> [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=300s) When it comes to Apple, they're the cleanest story in all of the trillion dollar boys club, the cleanest story. They're the ones that is not spending huge on AI. — 浑水摸鱼清源
> [20:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=1200s) If I was thinking for a year from now, 2027 is going to be really, really challenging for the stock market. — 保罗·都铎·琼斯 (Paul Tudor Jones)
> [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gKJC6oE6w?t=600s) If you don’t own stocks, you’re just going to put yourself in a huge financial jeopardy, huge financial problem — 浑水摸鱼清源
[31:12] 浑水摸鱼清源: If your focus is five years, yes, you buy the dip. If your focus is the next two weeks, don't buy the dip.
[20:00] 保罗·都铎·琼斯 (Paul Tudor Jones): We are literally exactly like 1999 in the sense that we have kind of a two-speed economy.
[5:00] 浑水摸鱼清源: When it comes to Apple, they're the cleanest story in all of the trillion dollar boys club, the cleanest story. They're the ones that is not spending huge on AI.
[20:00] 保罗·都铎·琼斯 (Paul Tudor Jones): If I was thinking for a year from now, 2027 is going to be really, really challenging for the stock market.
[10:00] 浑水摸鱼清源: If you don’t own stocks, you’re just going to put yourself in a huge financial jeopardy, huge financial problem
Original transcript
[0:00] Interesting times. We have some of the biggest stocks in the stock market tanking. We have treasury yields moving up. We have CDSs moving up in a substantial way. We have volatility in the market moving up in a substantial way. Got a lot to get into this video here today. Let me say this before we get rolling here. I honestly did not want to make a video today. I'm not in the physical condition to make a video today. I spent Uh, basically like 36 hours in bed fighting off something and I'm just starting to recover. I went for a walk around the neighborhood this morning and got some sun in my system and, and those sorts of things. But man, you know, I'm not, I'm not, don't think I went into depression or something like that, but just, I'm not in a great place right now to provide content, but I'm gonna try my best. And you know, I've been on YouTube 10 years now and whenever we got, uh, craziness in the market. I just feel bad if I don't put out some videos and talk to you guys about my take on things and whatnot, right? So we're going to go ahead and do this. So, you know, obviously public count had a tough one today. This was earlier in the trading session. I think at one point the public count might have been down 200,000 at the peak lows of the day. I think it ended up finishing down 144,000 here today. And that was after just, I think it was yesterday, the public count hit an all-time high in the history of the public count. So obviously a And to be honest a lot of people are not at all-time highs. So some people are getting hit harder in this market than others I feel like I've been pretty um, you know, pretty thankful for not getting hit very hard, but man We got some drama, you know, this is Oracle stock just in the past year. It's down 56% 56% right? One of the biggest tech companies in the world. So I want to do a lot of stock talk in this video I want to talk about not only the moves today I want to talk about the moves recently and what all this is screaming as far as all that goes, okay? Then I have some Very important data I want to share with you guys here today that I think I've got to share with you guys. Then we're going to get into this one. Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones. 2027 is going to be really challenging for the stock market. That's a very bearish take. Looking forward to hearing what he has to say and then go ahead and share my opinions and perspectives on that. I made some massive buys today. I want to show you what stocks I bought here today. We'll get into that. Since we'll have a bearish video and then here I am out there buying, we'll talk about why I'm buying. And the last one I want to react to here today is Amy Wu Silverman. The lesson for a long time now has been that you buy the dip. So looking forward to sharing my opinion perspectives. Only thing I need from you guys, just smash that like button if you haven't already done so. I hope you appreciate me trying to provide content even when I'm not doing too well. Okay, so... Okay. Let's get rolling with some of these moves here today. Oracle, what is this move screaming? This move is screaming that the credit default swaps are going really south. And when I say south, I really mean north. It's not good. And they're not the only ones. CoreWeave, same situation. And there's a lot of these AI infrastructure companies that are really having their credit default swaps explode higher. It's definitely a situation where there's more and more nervousness taking hold on a lot of these companies. Now, we're actually not really in peak fear in regards to Oracle. This was kind of peak fear, in my opinion, right here in July. Stock went down to 114. So just understand there could be more downside for Oracle if this market gets more freaked out. Snowflake, this stock has been really great. But obviously pulling back here recently, AMD had been red hot. We all know that. But obviously a recent pullback here. The thing with AMD is... Anytime you have fear about Oracle, CoreWeave, any of these companies, it just leads to fear about semiconductor stocks, right? And so it's going to lead to fears around. And you've got to understand AMD is almost like a call option. or put option on video right so the moves gonna be way more dramatic for amd than it is gonna be for something like nvidia but that works on the upside as well right so you know if today was a good day in the market AMD probably would have been up 6% while Nvidia is up 3%, right? MU continues to get hammered here recently, down 4% there. topped way back in June, right at over $1,200. And now it's right around 900. And the thing with MU and a lot of these memory chip stocks is they'll get momentum, but then it just seems like they have trouble keeping that momentum. And this is despite their earnings being phenomenal. Like you look at MU, you look at Sandisk, you look at all those companies, you know, SK Hynix, you look at Samsung, all those memory chip companies, they're making so much money, it's ridiculous. And they're going to continue to make so much money, it's ridiculous over the next year, right? But the fear is what happens two years out, three years out, four years out. And so that's causing a little bit of nervousness there. Palantir got hit a bit today, 3.6%. But That stock's actually been doing pretty well. Meta got hit a little bit today, but that stock's been doing very well, right? NVIDIA has been doing very well. So, you know, SpaceX got hit 2.8%. So, you know, I look out there and I say, you know, look at Apple, though. Apple hit an all-time high today, right? So you say, why is Apple hitting all-time highs while you're doing this?
[5:00] All this drama and all these other stocks, right? Very simple. Listen. When it comes to Apple... They're the cleanest story in all of... The trillion dollar boys club, the cleanest story. They're the ones that is not spending huge on AI. They're the ones that are seen as, hey, if the AI spends slows, Apple's not doomed because of that. They'll be just fine. And they're still going to be selling tons of iPhones and iPads and Macs and all this sort of stuff, right? And ASPs are supposed to go up because of the Duo. So... Obviously, we know the services business is really strong. So in the short term, Apple is... is the play, right? And we've been talking about that a little bit recently on the channel in terms of it's got the cleanest story. That doesn't mean it's going to have the cleanest story a year from now, three years from now, five years from now. But in the very short term, and keep in mind, Wall Street can be very short term focused. They like to look for where's an opportunity to maybe make some money and not lose money in the short term. They're going to look to Apple and be like, that's the one game in town. That's the one game in town. You know, everything else has all these like potential negatives. Apple is just a clean story in the short term, right? And that will eventually change, but it is what it is right now. And so that stock continues to be strong. And then you have some of these other stocks like ServiceNow continue to be strong. That stock bought them many months ago, obviously, right? Let's pull up a year to date on this one, or maybe even a six month. You know, over the past six months, ServiceNow is up 56%. You know, it was a great buying opportunity, obviously, over the summer and into the spring. So, OK, next up here, I thought this was really important. Look at what I'm showing you right now. OK, listen. This is a five day. This is a five day of these stocks. So, I don't want you to just think like, oh, these stocks are weakening today. No, this is actually, you know, because obviously the inflation numbers came in, yields went higher, that freaked out the market. But look at it. This isn't like just today. So NVIDIA is down about 7% so far past five days, right? Broadcom, Avago, down 8% the past five days. Micron's down 16% the past five days. That's a huge move down, right? AMD, 11.5%, almost 12% there. Intel's over 13%. Look at ARM. arms down 19% the past five trading days. I mean, you know, some of these moves, you would think we're in a full-blown stock market crash. When you see five-day moves on this big of companies, 16%, 12%, 13%, 19%, and these are some of the biggest companies in the world, You think we're in a full blown stock market crash, right? ASML, 8.5% there. William Research, 13% down there. Marvell, Marvell's 14% down. Man, a lot of big moves down, right? Sandisk is 17% down. brutal. SpaceX, 9% down. But it's not all bad. Look at Apple. Apple's up 2% the past five days. And look at Walmart. Walmart, Costco. Look at that. Walmart's up 7%. Costco's up 4%. There's always money moving in other places if it's moving out of somewhere. Listen, if somebody's selling... positions, right? Let's say somebody's like, I'm done with MU. I'm moving my money elsewhere. Right. Okay. They're going to do something with that money. That money's got to go somewhere. Right. So maybe they move it out of Micron. They're like, Micron's not the play short term. Maybe it comes back a month or two from now, but we're not in that right now. We're going to play Walmart right now. We're going to play Costco right now. We're going to move that money elsewhere. Right. And so this happens all the time in the stock market. Like I told you guys, Wall Street's very short term focus. potential over the next month they make that move. Now the important thing to understand about that, it's a dumb strategy. It's a dumb strategy and that's why, why do you think all these hedge funds have trouble even beating the S&P 500? They're supposed to be so intelligent. They're supposed to hire the best workers in the world, the most intelligent people from these prestigious colleges and universities. They have access to supposedly the best talent in the world, and yet they can't even beat the S&P 500. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that they're always trying to chase the market around short term. It's such a silly strategy, but they think they're smarter by doing that. Like, oh, we're moving out of MU. We're moving into a Walmart. It's like, okay, do what you want to do, man. Do what you want to do. Silly, silly games, but that is what occurs in the stock market, right? No. This was important. They were showing this on CNBC and I had it on the background. A lot of times I have it on the background while I'm great earnings reports or just doing other stuff in general. And so they were talking about the retail investor peaking. I was like, well, this is going to be an interesting segment, right? So. So they go to commercial price and then they come back and they show this data and this data needs to be very eyeopening. By the way, I showed this on my X page. If you want to follow me on X, I always have that LinkedIn description area down there. Also, I have my Instagram, but... x is you know instagram i post a lot of lifestyle related stuff x i post a lot of stock market and economic related stuff so you might you might and a lot of tips on becoming a better investor so
[10:00] If you're going to follow me, definitely follow me on X, if you use X, okay? So I posted this, okay? Look at this. If we go to direct stock ownership of households, it's dropped two percentage points, 200 basis points over the past few years. Total stock ownership has dropped as well. So basically less households are owning stocks, okay? Next, this is the median stock holding, you know, in somebody's portfolio, $56,000 to $77,000. So imagine you don't own stocks. Where's your net worth gone over the past few years? Nowhere down, right? You've got to own stocks, man. You've got to own stocks. And this might be the most eye-opening, right? So this is households that basically own stocks versus don't. And we're talking about a 33% difference there. You've got to own stocks. It's huge. And so I think the moral of the story is here. If you don't own stocks, you're just going to put yourself in a huge financial jeopardy, huge financial problem, right? And sometimes people say well you got to have a lot of money to invest It baloney man I started my first investments with a few hundred bucks The trick is you got to get started when you don have a lot of money It actually the best thing to do I started when I had a $1,000 net worth. If you ended up, my entire net worth when I first got started in the stock market was $1,000, right? My first investment was, I think, like $300 in the market. So I was like 30% of my net worth. So much better to get started young when you don't have money than waiting to get started later on down the road. And putting yourself in a situation where you haven't learned the game properly. And by the way, if you are older and you're like, well, I didn't get started young, I'm getting started now. I can teach you all this stuff. I do it in my private group. We have hundreds of people in there that have reached seven figures plus in their portfolio. And we've had, I don't know, 700, maybe to a thousand people reach six figures plus, multi six figures plus in the private group over time. I can teach you all this stuff inside the private group, right? And that's always linked in the description area down there. But I think it's better to get started when you don't have a lot of money versus get started when you have a lot of money. But the trick is you want to get started young. You want to get started as early as possible. You have time for compounding time for learning, right? But additionally just think about it from the context of like you going to be more incentivized to invest more and more and more That was one of the key things with me is I like looking and I like back when I was working at Walgreens and I could only invest maybe 200 300 400 bucks a month I like man if only I could invest a thousand a month, if only I could invest 2000 a month. And that got me off my butt to apply for different jobs, different places. And guess what? One of those places called me back and I went for the interview and I nailed it and I got the job. And next thing you know, just like that, I went from maybe investing 300 bucks a month to investing $1,500 plus a month, five X, right? Like just like that. And so you got to have that motivation. And when you're looking in your portfolio and you're like, man, I only had more to invest. You don't want to get messing with margin. That's a trap. That's a trap. But it's like, how could I make more money? And then you start thinking, thinking, thinking, thinking, thinking. Now, the other issue I find with some people sometimes is so, So, man, so frustrating is sometimes people then start making more money and then you know what happens. Oh, I don't have the time to look into stocks because I'm working so much. No, dude, you've got to make the time. OK so you didn have enough money to invest So you got a better job You start a business start a side hustle whatever Right Now you making more money Now you actually have more money to invest And instead what are you doing with it You squandering it That so frustrating to me Like that's like one of the biggest reasons people don't join the private group is, you know, because people get on a call and they have to get vetted to see if they're a right fit for the private group. The biggest reason is I don't have time. Yes, you do. You freaking liar. Yes, you do. I'll give it to you straight up. You're a liar. Yes, you do have the time. Everybody has the time. If I had the time, you got the time. I got a wife. I got three kids. I got businesses. I got a million investments to keep track of. I got friendships and all this stuff. I got the time. Everybody has the time. I had the time when I was working three jobs back in the day. I had the time when I was working that quick trip 48 hours a week. Always had the time. You do too. It's about do you want to make the time to look into your stocks, right? And so that's the name of the whole game. Like if you do those two things, then it's just about strategy and understanding what you're doing in this game. Boom, you got the trifecta. We're ready to roll, man. We're ready to roll and make a lot of money, but the money's not for everybody, man. The money's not for everybody. I guess it's just a select few. And then people wonder why there's so much wealth inequality and it's like,
[15:00] People actually go get it, right? And some people just make excuses. I can't do this, can't do that, can't do this. All right. at Good Shepherd Services, which is a foundation that Robin Hood has long supported. We support them for over 30 years. They're kind of like the Kobe or the shack of not for profits. In New York City, they serve 30,000 kids. Just a spectacular organization. I first met them in It was run by Sister Paulette. And if you met her, you would want to hug her. She was... Just the most brilliant, loving, warm human being. And she says she's retired, but she's not. She's still working and has new ideas and... Michelle who runs the place now plays catch with her all the time so it's Great place. Why? I love philanthropy. I love, you know, doing anything to help people. Like, you know, I feel like one of the big things like you're going to make some like if you play this game on a high level for decades and decades, you're going to make more money than you ever know how to spend it. Right. And you could live a comfortable lifestyle and live in a nice house and have nice cars and, you know, go on nice vacations and have good health care and blah, blah, blah. Right. But at the end of the day, if you're playing this game for 20, 30, 40 years, you have more money than you know what to do with. Right. And so then it's like, wow. What can you do with that money? Right now, some people have a view of I'm just going to pass it down to my children. You want to do that? That's fine. Right. Some people are like, I want to give. back to charity. I want to hope, you know, I look at it and I'm like, you know, with my kids, you know, When you have me as a father, you should already know the whole game, business, investing, everything. People don't have that advantage. You grew up a very privileged life, and I feel like my money can be much more – much better spent. You know, when I pass on, I feel like my money can be much better spent. And people that don't have all those advantages, right? And so anyways, that's just my view on that. But everybody can have different views and those sorts of things. If I live a full life and I grind out this whole thing, right, I should... billions and billions of dollars right like like just ridiculous. What are my kids going to do with billions and billions of dollars? Just think about it, right? Like, what are you gonna do with that? float around in a yacht every day, like, you know, waste away your life. Like, you know, come on. So, you know, You can do plenty of things if you're even given like a million dollars in this world. But also I want my kids to have a go-getter mindset in a mindset where like – they're not looking for their dad to just give them something. I want them to grow up with a mindset of like, we're going to go get it. Um, And we're going to maybe take things even beyond what my dad could do. Right. So that's my view. Again, the best thing about this is this place. It believes so firmly as we do a child's circumstance does not determine anything. their future. I want to talk philanthropy in New York City and Robin Hood and this conference as well, but I want to talk markets. If you indulge me, because we have bank earnings coming out this morning. But I was thinking back to a conversation that we had about a year ago around this same time. Right. And I had said something to the effect to you of where do you think we are in the market cycle? And you said something to the effect of. Maybe it's like 1999, but remember that the market still went up another 40% after 1999. here we are a year later, Where do you think we really are? Boy, it still feels like 1999 at a two-speed market. You've got it completely perfectly bafurcated in the sense that you have obviously everything that's adopting AI and everything that's not. and they're going in opposite directions and that was pretty much the case in 1999 I'll tell you it was so crazy I did this conference about a week ago and We were going through, you know, What period does this remind you of? And we're talking about 1999. So I asked everyone at the conference, I said, how many of you? here were trading in 1999 there's probably 200 people there What percent do you think we're trading in 1999? I'm thinking just the way you're asking, I'm going to go with 10 percent. It was about 20 percent. I thought, oh, my gosh. Because for me, it's just so clear that that Again, we're on this path that that The only way if you were making any sort of big moves in 99... You've got to be 60 plus years old now. Like just do the math on it, right? So like anybody that's under the age of 60 at that conference is not gonna
[20:00] He's raising their hand in all due respect because it's just like, it's impossible just mathematically. Great short term, but may not be so great long term. And I just was. I forget. I guess I'm dating myself. I forget that so many people haven't lived this. What were you doing in nineteen now? How were you in nineteen nine? In 1999? I was just graduating from college. I was writing about mergers and acquisitions the height of the height of the boom in the MA. Right. This is for the New York Times. I was doing right. And this was. It was a heck of a time. So anyway... We are literally exactly like 1999 in the sense that we have kind of a two-speed economy. But does that mean to you again, you know, I remember you saying this idea that the market still has 40% to run. Mm-hmm. Does that mean that in terms of this thing cresting, We are still years away, or we're still months away, and therefore how do you trade that? So I think... that For me the most interesting thing and I it's it's hard for me to see and professionally much beyond December 31, because that's going to be really important, obviously, for a fund. So I'm trying to tactically think what I want to do for the rest of the year. Clearly, if you can just go back and look at midterm cycles a whole variety of things that would tell you that we should have a Really really strong fourth quarter coming out of the midterms the market typically bottom sometime and late October, early November. and then you get to fourth quarter push. I kind of look at positioning and think, That's very possible. At the same time, If I if I was thinking I For a year from now, 2027 is going to be really, really challenging. for the stock market. And I say that... Because if I just look. It depends. Thank you. We can have one of two scenarios play out here. Okay, listen. One scenario... Right around Halloween, because he mentions right around Halloween, a lot of times you get a bottom in the market or a substantial move in one direction or another. Right around Halloween... and after, I feel like we're either going to have the market absolutely take off like a rocket ship or we're going to go down Chinatown, right? And it really depends upon treasury yields and what happens with treasuries. So if treasuries go higher, you know, Halloween and after, we could have a 2018. A 2018 scenario is market tanks all the way through December, right? And, um, If that happens, I'm actually more bullish on 2027 for the stock market. So I'm not actually against that. Like if we had a scenario where the market tanks, in the fourth quarter in general. I would actually be more comfortable about 2027 in the market, right? No. The other scenario is let's say we get to right around Halloween, so a couple weeks from now, and treasuries start to go lower, lower, lower. Maybe they even start before that. We're going to see a lot of these interest rate-sensitive stocks. start to bounce heavy. What am I talking about? You want some specific stock names? SoFi. RH win resorts. You'll even see a lot of the AI chip stocks start to come back. I'm talking Micron, I'm talking AMD and the others. And so... But I do believe we're going to have a very sharp move right around Halloween and after. And it's impossible to predict because I can't predict what happens with treasury rates in November and December. Nor can you. No one can. Paul Tudor Jones can't. No one can predict. If we could predict short-term treasury rates, we would be doing that because there's so much money in arbitrage to be made in that. But no one can. That's just a complete gamble. And believe me, I've had so many intelligent minds feel like, oh, interest rates are going to go lower. They're going to go a little lower. And these people are very, very, very intelligent. They've had some amazing trades or investments over the years, and they just keep being wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. And so, you know, just something to kind of keep in mind there. Look at the flows, and that's probably what we look at the most, what I look at the most. You probably got the most negative flow picture. for the US stock market that we've had say since 2002 and by that I mean We sum up all the buybacks, M&A, all the positive things that has... powered this market. so much. for the past say since 2009 if I sum up all those and then I subtract from that the IPOs, secondaries, unlocks, etc. Then you've got Certainly the most negative flow picture since 2009. So that underlying corporate support that was there year in, year out. is now really shifted when you think about the two
[25:00] between dollars, SpaceX, becoming Anthropic and OpenAI. It shifts the math and makes it more difficult for the market. How confident, by the way, are you in the math of the valuations of some of these big AI companies? There was obviously a bit of a freak out last week as it related to OpenAI's valuation. We have Anthropic coming up likely in November. I don't know how you think that's going to trade. I think Anthropic will do well. I think open AIs, a lot of it will rest on what Anthropic does. You know, the reason why you've seen, I think, multiple compression in that space, in the whole tech space, is because obviously with all the concerns about AI safety, and certainly with the rhetoric that's coming out of the administration, that you're going to be responsible if you make a mistake. Everyone's kind of reassessing. You can have these spectacular earnings spectacular revenue streams great projections But if all of a sudden we wake up one day and a model has gone rogue or bad actors used it maliciously and you got a donut it makes But you've been warning about that issue for a long time. We've had you on the broadcast where I remember we started a conversation. We were starting to go in one way and then all of a sudden you said, no, no, I just was at an A.I. conference. And the people there genuinely. I mean, you may be one of the first people who said that on our air in terms of the sort of true risk. How big a risk actually is it in your mind? So we run three quad teams internally, and then I have another business, sports analytics. And so we've been using neural nets forever, AI, forms of AI forever. And again, the difficulty with it is that you know what the output is, but you don't know why or how you got there. That's what happens when you have billions and trillions of permutations. You don't know why we got there. And so that's why AI safety has always been a concern for me because interpretability, what generates that outcome? If you don know how or why it happens it got to be a great concern All right Next up here let get into the stocks I bought here today and then we get back to this last video So plus a buy is here today So obviously you know, there's a lot of stocks that are heavily damaged. And you'll be able to see a trend with a lot of these stocks, right? So Celsius was just under a $7,000 buy there. RH was a big boy buy there, $14,500. SoFi, right around $10,000 buy of SoFi there. I wish I got it in the 13s. I got it for 14 and some change, but I really want to, I was, when I saw SoFi at 13, I was like, oh my gosh, SoFi's at 13 right now. Okay. All right. You know, no, when I first started buying SoFi, it was like six, right? But still like, you know, it's like 13 on SoFi. Okay. Like this company is so much of a better place than they were back when it was a $6 stock, but whatever. American Express, $7,600 buy there. Winning Resorts was over $9,000 buy. And then Netflix was a $3,500 buy there. The main trend you'll see in relation to this is with these four stocks, right? Very interest rate sensitive, very interest rate sensitive with Wynn, American Express, SoFi, RH. So if interest rates do end up starting to fall in the next you know let call it around Halloween or after or even if they start falling before you going to see those stocks move up heavily Like the moves will be dramatic but people got to feel confident that treasury yields are going lower Once that happens, you're going to get massive bounces on those stocks. Like, you'll see RH go from like, you know, 108 to like 188, and it could happen in a matter of two months, but you got to get treasury yields to fall on people to feel comfortable about that. Right now, people don't want to do anything real estate like you look at almost all the big home builders those stocks are are i think almost all of them are at 52 week lows so let's pull up a one year here so rh one year low right um okay so enphase enphase oh not quite a one year low but pretty close whirlpool's 27 oh gosh they're almost giving whirlpool shares away for free now at this point in time shoot man Alexander real estate basically on a 52 week low or each at 52 week low BXP not quite there but not far off um caterpillar and caterpillar looks great as far as a one-year it's up 42% but gosh this move from a thousand plus down a 700 that's like a you know that's what a 30% plus move down from those highs CC
[30:00] not quite 52 week low but not that far off rocket 52 week low by a mile there that's one that should benefit huge with if and when the real estate market comes back so if the real estate market comes back in 2027 look for rocket to be a rocket ship right okay you know you run tolls holding up pretty well Pulteq homes looks like a 52 week low The Lenar, oh gosh, 52-week low. Toll Brothers held up better. It's not that far off 52-week low, but it has held up better than the others. They're not as negatively affected. Pool Corporation, right around a 52-week low. D.R. Horton, right around a 52-week low. KB Holmes, 52-week low. FICO, dang, FICO. FICO. Wow, look at that move down for FICO to 700 now. The stock was way over 2,000 not that long ago. So you get the picture. You get the picture. All right, let's react to Amy. Development here with regard to just how much we need these kinds of bullish sentiment, I guess, indicators to propel this next leg higher. But the options market is suggesting that people are betting on, in some ways, more upside ahead. Just how important is this data? One thing we've talked about is just this idea that post-COVID has really been its own options and volatility regime. And as you had mentioned, it actually started with the meme craze. Obviously, you're seeing this across the board now in terms of call buying interest. But if you go all the way back in time, it really started with that game stop and AMC when retail investors essentially realized, one, that when there is upside momentum, it tends to be get more momentum. You know, frankly, the lesson for a long time now has been that you buy the dip. You think about April 2nd, Liberation Day, you even think back to COVID. And, of course, while there are drawdowns, I think that's the lesson that investors continue to take away these days. We're also looking, I mean. Yeah, I mean, do you buy the dip? Listen, if your focus is five years, yes, you buy the dip. If your focus is the next two weeks, don't buy the dip. You know, like that's a complete gamble if you're trying to think, you know, where the market's going short term, where the stocks go short term. term. Every dip is always a buy, right? And the bigger you get stocks down, the bigger buy and opportunity they are, obviously, right? So that's just history. More broadly speaking, and it's hard to say just how indicative this is. But we look at the CBOE S&P 500 volatility index, the VIX, people call it, right? The kind of fear gauge. Even that measure is low by historical standards. What exactly does that say about the overall feeling? I mean, even at an index level, people kind of don't feel as though there's a volatility regime headed to us ahead. So right now the VIX is in and around the 15 handle that has been the case for a while. You're right, even on a historical basis, when you think about where the VIX has been, it looks fairly suppressed. One thing that we have sort of pointed out as a nuance is it's been a little bit of this paddling duck market. What do I mean by that? It looks pretty calm and smooth on the surface, but those little duck feet are violently paddling underneath. So if you look under the surface, there are multi-standard deviation moves. All you need to do is look at software versus semis to see that that is the case. Essentially, what is happening is there's sort of this cancellation. Some people, some stocks zig, other stocks zag, and it keeps index levels relatively muted. But I think it is important to understand that there is a... She's right on. I gotta go. Alright guys, appreciate you. Much love as always. Have a great day. Hope you feel better than me. And uh... my ex if you want to follow me on that or instagram is linked in the description same thing in my private group already got much love have a great day
